Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Best on the board right now
Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is A Little Nasty. Small money, our side, no receipt.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +3.5 at -124 (1.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -110 (1.7%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.6%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Buck's Take
Nothing's nasty enough Monday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Iowa +3 (Iowa at Washington) at 6.0% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Broncos at Chargers, Chargers +3.5, 1 point our way since the open.
If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Iowa at Washington, Iowa +3. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Duke at Georgia Tech, Over 49.5. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 1 point since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
2 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 50¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.0%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +3.5 at -124 (1.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -110 (1.7%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.6%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Sniff of Nasty · Friday's preview, 24 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Iowa +3, NC State +4, UNLV +3. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and SP+ and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. NFL: FPI and Massey and Sagarin and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin and nfelo haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
6.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Iowa): TOM +3 at +100 (6.0%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (5.5%) · Fanatics +3 at -105 (4.8%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -122 (4.1%) · DraftKings +3 at -108 (4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -122 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.4.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (NC State): TOM +4 at -115 (4.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (4.5%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.4.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UNLV): TOM +3 at +100 (4.5%) · BetMGM +3 at -105 (3.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (3.1%) · DraftKings +3 at -108 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%).Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -120 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.3.6% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Giants): BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (3.6%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (3.2%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 52¢ (2.8%) · TOM +3.5 at -119 (2.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.3.6% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-0.9%).3.5% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Titans): Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (3.5%) · BetMGM +7 at -108 (3.2%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -102 (1.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +7 at -115 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +7 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +6.5 (the games that land on 7); -108 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. The price wins by a hair.2.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Texas A&M): Fanatics or BetMGM +3.5 at -105 (3.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (3.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.8%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.1.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (South Carolina): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (1.9%) · TOM +13.5 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM +13 at -108 (0.1%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -105 (0.1%) · Fanatics +13 at -110 (-0.3%).16 more, weaker reads
1.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings -7 at -120 (0.7%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (0.6%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -110 (-0.6%).1.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Memphis): DraftKings or Fanatics -14 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM or TOM -14 at -112 (1.2%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 50¢ (0.1%) · FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -14 (the games that land on 14); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.3.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (South Florida): Fanatics or DraftKings +7 at -105 (3.4%) · BetMGM or Caesars +7 at -108 (2.7%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 53¢ (2.7%) · TOM +7 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.6%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); 53¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (2.8%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (2.6%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -106 (2.3%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 53.5 at -107 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 54 (the games that land on 54); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (3.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (2.8%) · BetMGM or DraftKings 55.5 at -118 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.3%).1.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): Kalshi or TOM -175 (1.8%) · FanDuel -178 (1.4%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -185 (0.5%) · Fanatics -190 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 64¢ on the app (-194 all-in) (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 42 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -105 (1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 42.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (1.9%) · TOM 50.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -105 (1.5%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -118 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.1.6% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Cardinals): TOM +5 at -105 (1.6%) · Fanatics +4.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +4.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.2%).1.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +6 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars +6 at -109 (0.5%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +6 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +6.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +6 (the games that land on 6); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 54.5 at -105 (2.2%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.6%).1.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Western Michigan): DraftKings -13.5 at -112 (1.5%) · BetMGM -14 at -105 (1.2%) · TOM -13.5 at -114 (1.0%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (0.8%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -102 (1.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 49¢ (0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (0.5%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 47.5 at 48¢ (0.5%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 46.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 46.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 47); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. A wash; either is fine.Read from FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 52.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · TOM 52 at -113 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Read from FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.8%) · Fanatics or FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (1.0%) · TOM 54.5 at -113 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Moved closer since the 9:07am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:07am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Missouri State at Western Kentucky Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Western Kentucky -1.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The price from -118 to -112. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Tulsa at Navy Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Tulsa +3.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to +2.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Coastal Carolina at Marshall Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Coastal Carolina +4.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to +3.0; the price from -120 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Colts at Steelers Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Colts +3.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.0 to +2.5; the price from -105 to -104. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Bengals at Dolphins Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Sniff of Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Dolphins +7.0: 3.3 cents short at today's line, was 32.3.The line went from +7.5 to +7.0; the price from -110 to -107. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Texas A&M at Missouri Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Texas A&M +4.0: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The price from -106 to -108. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - James Madison at Georgia Southern Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at James Madison -7.0: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The line went from -8.0 to -7.5; the price from -105 to -110; the market drifted 1.1 away from the Nasty Number. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Buccaneers at Cowboys Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Cowboys -9.5: 3.6 cents short at today's line, was 4.9.The line went from -10.0 to -9.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 2 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL 7:15pmSaints -1should be Saints -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 1, the Nasty Number says Saints by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -117 | -103 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 +101 | 47.5 -104 | -113 | +102 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -117 | -103 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -117 | -103 |
| betPARX | -1 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetUS | -1 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -1 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -1 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -108 | 47.5 -107 | -117 | -103 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 +101 | 47.5 -104 | -113 | +102 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 +100 | 47.5 -104 | -113 | +108 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -118 | +101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Falcons).
Also out: A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Anfernee Jennings (LB, Saints), Kaden Elliss (LB, Saints) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.4 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -136 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -188 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -159 |
| Market (21 books) | -1.0 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -1.5 | -103 | -103 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -117 | -114 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-27 21:32.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at TroyCFB tomorrow 7:00pmTroy -10.5should be Troy -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Troy by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Troy by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -108 | 49.5 -120 | -433 | +322 |
All 22 books
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -112 | 49 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 50 -115 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -112 | 49 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -113 | 49 -113 | -480 | +330 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 50 -115 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -106 | 50.5 -103 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -108 | 49.5 -120 | -433 | +322 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +100 | 49.5 -113 | — | +335 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -119 | 50.5 -111 | -481 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Troy). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans -10.5, only $10 available; Over 50.5, only $4 available; Under 49.5, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -402 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -206 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -394 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -275 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.5 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +310 | +353 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Troy Trojans since 09-30 18:06; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wed Oct 7
2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico State, New Mexico State at Florida InternationalNew Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:30pmNew Mexico State +6should be New Mexico State +5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +4.5Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, New Mexico State. Market says Florida International by 6, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -224 | +184 |
All 21 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Bally Bet | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 47 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -102 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +186 |
| betPARX | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| BetRivers | -6 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -240 | +188 |
| BetUS | -6 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +185 |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -6 -110 | 46.5 -113 | -225 | +184 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -230 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 47 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -111 | 46.5 -108 | -220 | +186 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -255 | +204 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -224 | +184 |
| Polymarket | -5.5 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -265 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is New Mexico State +6.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers -5.5, only $2 available; Over 47.5, only $471 available; Under 47.5, only $360 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -119 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +6.0 | -105 | -111 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +190 | +182 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pmKennesaw State +3should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 50.5 | — | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 51 -107 | +125 | -147 |
All 23 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 50.5 | — | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -113 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 51 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +3 -113 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 51 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 51 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 51 -109 | +126 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -108 | 50.5 -116 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 51 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -124 | 50.5 -115 | +126 | -152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -106 | 50.5 -114 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 51 -110 | +123 | -151 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 51 -107 | +125 | -147 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +104 | — | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -103 | 50.5 -119 | +121 | -155 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $114 available; Kennesaw State Owls ML, only $10 available; Under 51.5, only $172 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +136 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -169 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +3.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +126 | +119 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +136 consensus.
Thu Oct 8
5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · South Florida, South Florida at UTSASouth Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida +7should be South Florida +6 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · South FloridaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Florida. Market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -103 | -300 | +238 |
All 23 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50.5 -118 | -275 | +210 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50.5 -118 | -275 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -7 -113 | 50.5 -120 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50 -112 | -280 | +225 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 50.5 -109 | -271 | +230 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -278 | +225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -120 | -275 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -106 | 50 -108 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -103 | -300 | +238 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +104 | 49.5 | -257 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -111 | -300 | +224 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Florida +7.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls ML, only $29 available; Over 49.5, only $102 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +7.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +230 | +203 | +2.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -139 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.3.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -117 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 52.5 -109 | -605 | +419 |
All 23 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -117 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -107 | -715 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -117 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -107 | -715 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -715 | +475 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -113 | 52.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +420 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 52.5 -109 | -605 | +419 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 | 53.5 +104 | -525 | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $115 available; Under 52.5, only $374 available; Liberty Flames -13.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -450 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -365 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty Flames -13.5 | -112 | -101 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames ML | -575 | -447 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pmWestern Kentucky -2.5should be Western Kentucky -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 2 to Western Kentucky by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -107 | -138 | +118 |
All 23 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -150 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -150 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 55.5 -113 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -134 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -114 | -140 | +116 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -140 | +114 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 55.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -116 | 56.5 -119 | -143 | +112 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky).
Kalshi thin: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $50 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5, only $68 available; Over 55.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -184 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5 | -112 | -111 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -135 | -135 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pmArkansas State -1.5should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 57.5 | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -108 | 57 -114 | -113 | -103 |
All 23 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 57.5 | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Bally Bet | -0.5 -112 | 57.5 -109 | -112 | -109 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| betPARX | -0.5 -112 | 57.5 -109 | -112 | -109 |
| BetRivers | +0.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | -113 | -110 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 57.5 -112 | -117 | -102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -113 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -102 | 57.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 57.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 57.5 -108 | -121 | +101 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 58 -110 | -116 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -108 | 57 -114 | -113 | -103 |
| Polymarket | +0.5 | 57.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -109 | 57.5 -119 | -119 | -107 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5, only $101 available; Over 57.5, only $17 available; Arkansas State Red Wolves +0.5, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -116 here against -105 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +106 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 62.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +101 | +111 | -2.3% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.0 consensus; moneyline -116 here against -105 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pmCowboys -9.5should be Cowboys -10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Cowboys by 10 to Cowboys by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +107 | 47.5 -107 | -509 | +395 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -520 | +395 |
| BetMGM | -9 -115 | 47.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -625 | +450 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -104 | -520 | +400 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -600 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -107 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -594 | +389 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +107 | 47.5 -107 | -509 | +395 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 +100 | -456 | +426 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -526 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 +100 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $92 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Emari Demercado (RB, Cowboys), Camden Brown (WR, Cowboys), Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| FPI | -14.5 | -465 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| Massey | -6.5 | -182 |
| Market (21 books) | -9.5 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -9.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -455 | -406 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 9
5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Iowa, Iowa at WashingtonIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmIowa +3should be Iowa +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +1Sniff of Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 1.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 41 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 41.5 -114 | -159 | +135 |
All 23 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 41 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -157 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 41 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 41.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 41 -115 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -157 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 41 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 42 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 41.5 -107 | -157 | +133 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 41.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 41.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -160 | +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 41.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 41 -114 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 41.5 -114 | -159 | +135 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 41.5 -108 | — | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +102 | 41.5 -109 | -169 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 63°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -3.5, only $135 available; Under 41.5, only $14 available; Washington Huskies -3.5, only $168 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.0 | +100 | -127 | +6.0% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +135 | +111 | +4.8% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmSan José State -6.5should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 44 -102 | -235 | +192 |
All 23 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 43.5 -109 | -250 | +200 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 43 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 44 -102 | -235 | +192 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | 43.5 -104 | — | +203 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -114 | 42.5 -119 | -275 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 +100 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $2 available; Under 43.5, only $50 available; San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -290 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -299 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -188 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -6.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -225 | -231 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmWashington State +6should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 6, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.3 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -107 | 43 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -131 55¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -106 | 42.5 -113 | -200 | +167 |
All 23 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -107 | 43 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -131 55¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -109 | -210 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -107 | 43 -110 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -109 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 43 -110 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 43 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 42.5 -118 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 43 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -210 | +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -103 | 43 -108 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -223 | +178 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -106 | 42.5 -113 | -200 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -5.5 | 43.5 | — | +178 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -111 | -197 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Washington State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 3.3 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 41.5, only $18 available; Utah State Aggies -5.5, only $320 available; Over 43.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -130 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +122 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +6.0 | -113 | -113 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +165 | +179 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -104 | 59.5 -109 | -180 | +151 |
All 23 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -190 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -4 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -190 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -113 | 59.5 -109 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -4 -112 | 59 -110 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 58.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 59 -110 | -194 | +155 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -104 | 59.5 -109 | -180 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 59.5 -104 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 59.5 -109 | -186 | +138 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Florida State Seminoles +3.5, only $425 available; Over 59.5, only $3 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $271 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -189 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -170 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pmBYU -11should be BYU -10.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 11, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -105 | 47 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 45.5 -131 55¢ | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +102 | 47.5 -102 | -405 | +305 |
All 23 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -105 | 47 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 45.5 -131 55¢ | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -480 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -105 | 47 -110 | -435 | +340 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -480 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -430 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -101 | 47 -108 | -435 | +340 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +102 | 47.5 -102 | -405 | +305 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +104 | -376 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -111 | 46.5 -119 | -490 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars -10.5, only $257 available; Under 45.5, only $27 available; BYU Cougars -10.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -422 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -390 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.0 | -416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +11.0 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | +325 | +372 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UNLV, North Dakota State at UNLVNorth Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3should be UNLV +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +3.5Sniff of Nasty · UNLVBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UNLV. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 48.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 48.5 -102 | +137 | -162 |
All 22 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -127 | 49.5 +107 | +118 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +136 | -156 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -127 | 49.5 +107 | +118 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -129 | 49.5 +106 | +118 | -148 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -124 | 48.5 -103 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +126 | -152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -125 | 49.5 +105 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 48 -108 | +136 | -156 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +131 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 48.5 -102 | +137 | -162 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +138 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 48.5 -109 | +126 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UNLV +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $54 available; Over 48.5, only $50 available; UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | +100 | -120 | +4.5% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +131 | +118 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +4should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +2Sniff of Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 4, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -115 | 60 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 | +140 40¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -112 | 60 -109 | +146 | -173 |
All 22 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -115 | 60 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 | +140 40¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 60 -105 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 60.5 -110 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 60 -105 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 60 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 59.5 -117 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 60.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 60.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -112 | 59.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -111 | 60 -103 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +147 | -182 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -112 | 60 -109 | +146 | -173 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 59.5 | +150 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -114 | 59.5 -114 | +141 | -190 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +4.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $1 available; NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $422 available; Over 59.5, only $80 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +194 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -112 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (18 books) | +4.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +4.0 | -115 | -140 | +4.9% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +140 | +122 | +3.4% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.5 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +1Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 3. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 48 -113 | -183 | +154 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | -177 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -172 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -197 | +159 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 48 -113 | -183 | +154 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -163 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 48.5 -111 | -206 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +3.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $6 available; Under 49.5, only $2 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -108 | -121 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +133 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmOver 46.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 47.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 49Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Miami (OH) too: market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -111 | 46.5 -109 | +109 | -127 |
All 22 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -107 | +115 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -107 | +115 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -109 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -111 | 46.5 -109 | +109 | -127 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +113 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | +106 | -141 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 63°F.
Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen +2.5, only $391 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.5, only $0 available; Under 47.5, only $338 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +414 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -110 | -124 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -130 | -143 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +13.5should be South Carolina +11.5 · getting 2 pts at Kalshi · was +15Sniff of Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 11.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 | -524 83¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 62 -104 | -539 | +383 |
All 22 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 | -524 83¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -107 | -500 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 61.5 -118 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -107 | -500 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 61.5 -108 | -500 | +360 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 62.5 -105 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -115 | 61.5 -118 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -106 | 61.5 -115 | -530 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 62 -103 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 62.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 62 -104 | -539 | +383 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 -108 | -488 | +456 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 62.5 -109 | -526 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 61.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 78°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.9 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $255 available; South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $172 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -291 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -309 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 59.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5 | -103 | -111 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +400 | +394 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 4.4.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.9 consensus.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOMSniff of Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 44 -115 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 44.5 | -290 73¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -117 | 44 -116 | -284 | +227 |
All 22 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 44 -115 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 44.5 | -290 73¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -129 | 42.5 -117 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -116 | 44 -115 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -129 | 42.5 -117 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -132 | 42.5 -118 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -7 -120 | 44 -115 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -111 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -130 | 42.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -116 | 44 -114 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -324 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -117 | 44 -116 | -284 | +227 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -285 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -114 | 44.5 -109 | -370 | +250 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -7.5, only $196 available; Over 44.5, only $0 available; Sacramento State Hornets ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -349 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -369 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -312 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.0 | -116 | -123 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -298 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 65 in 100 · -175Sniff of Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Pittsburgh by 4, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 5. At -175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -115 | 47 -108 | -188 | +158 |
All 22 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 47 -109 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -4 -108 | 46.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 47 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -198 | +159 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -115 | 47 -108 | -188 | +158 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 +100 | -178 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 46.5 -119 | -206 | +153 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -175 (62¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5, only $83 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -302 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -341 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (18 books) | -4.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -175 | -189 | +1.7% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5 | +100 | -105 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.7 consensus.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMemphis -14Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Memphis -16 · getting 2 pts at BetMGMSniff of Nasty · MemphisBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Memphis. Market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 16. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -105 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 +102 | 57 -112 | -647 | +441 |
All 22 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -105 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -114 | 58.5 +100 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 58 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -108 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -112 | 57.5 -105 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -114 | 58.5 +100 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -117 | 58.5 -103 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 57 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 57.5 -106 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -115 | 58.5 +100 | -700 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -108 | 57.5 -103 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -631 | +444 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 +102 | 57 -112 | -647 | +441 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 | -567 | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 57.5 -114 | -649 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -14.0 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $175 available; Over 56.5, only $46 available; Under 56.5, only $350 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -871 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -852 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -693 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.0 | -112 | -118 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -573 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.4 consensus.
UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUnder 54should be 52 · getting 2 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 54.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans UCF too: market says Oklahoma State by 9, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 54 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -101 | 54 -108 | -387 | +294 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 54 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9 -105 | 54 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -9 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -105 | 54 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 54 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 54 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 54 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -114 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -101 | 54 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -101 | 54 -108 | -387 | +294 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 -117 | 53.5 -108 | -335 | +300 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -380 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma State Cowboys -9.5, only $217 available; Over 53.5, only $378 available; UCF Knights ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -192 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.0 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +9.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +280 | +270 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.6 consensus.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at TOMSniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | — | -564 84¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 43.5 -111 | -611 | +422 |
All 22 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | — | -564 84¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -113 | -715 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -14 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -113 | -715 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -715 | +475 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -14 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -725 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 43.5 -111 | -611 | +422 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -525 | +456 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -125 | 43.5 -116 | -800 | +450 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $35 available; Over 44.5, only $134 available; Under 44.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -18.5 | -790 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -749 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -590 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -114 | -119 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -534 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 49.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 50.5 · getting 1 pt · was 52A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +7 -114 | 50 -108 | +217 | -270 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -113 | 50 -109 | +215 | -275 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -113 | 50 -109 | +215 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 50 -110 | +210 | -275 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 50 -110 | +220 | -270 |
| Courtside | +7 -110 | 50.5 -109 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -112 | 49.5 -115 | +220 | -270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 50 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -106 | 49.5 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +226 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -114 | 50 -108 | +217 | -270 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +223 | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 49.5 -114 | +214 | -300 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 75°F, 38% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils -6.5, only $172 available; Under 50.5, only $374 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $379 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +225 here against +249 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +215 | +215 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +249 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmUnder 55should be 53 · getting 2 pts · was 54Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon State by 14, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San Diego State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 55 -109 | -627 | +430 |
All 21 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -112 | 57.5 -104 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -105 | 55.5 -102 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 55 -110 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -112 | 57.5 -104 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -114 | 57.5 -105 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 55 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 55.5 +100 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 55.5 -102 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | -610 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 +115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 55 -108 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 55 -109 | -627 | +430 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -676 | +400 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward San Diego State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: San Diego State Aztecs +14.5, only $193 available; Under 55.5, only $32 available; San Diego State Aztecs ML, only $67 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -363 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -303 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.0 | -112 | -113 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +430 | +425 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUnder 52weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalSniff of Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 52, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -101 | 52 -107 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | — | +240 28¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -116 | 51.5 -119 | +246 | -312 |
All 22 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -101 | 52 -107 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | — | +240 28¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -112 | 52 -108 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -101 | 52 -107 | +249 | -305 |
| betPARX | +8 -112 | 52 -108 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 52 -109 | +255 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +253 | -305 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -120 | 52 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -118 | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +245 | -310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +103 | 52 -105 | +249 | -305 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 51.5 -110 | +248 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -116 | 51.5 -119 | +246 | -312 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | — | — | -270 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 51.5 -119 | +236 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $50 available; Under 52.5, only $4 available; Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +285 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +228 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +186 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +380 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -119 | -108 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -305 | -261 | -3.0% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -113 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.7 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +285 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmOver 54.5should be 55.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 53Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Temple by 4, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Temple by 3.5 to Temple by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -200 65¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4 -109 | 54 -115 | -192 | +161 |
All 22 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -200 65¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -182 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -182 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -4 -115 | 54 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 54.5 -103 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -188 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -111 | 54.5 -108 | -190 | +165 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -199 | +160 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -109 | 54 -115 | -192 | +161 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -186 | — |
| ReBet | -4.5 -109 | 54.5 -114 | -208 | +153 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls -4.5, only $50 available; Under 54.5, only $1 available; UConn Huskies ML, only $134 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -102 |
| Market (18 books) | -4.0 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -115 | -106 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -190 | -171 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmOver 50.5should be 52.6 · getting 2.1 pts · was 54.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 49.5 | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 51 -118 | +402 | -574 |
All 22 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 49.5 | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +395 | -520 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -118 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +428 | -570 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 51 -112 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +435 | -570 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -103 | 51.5 -103 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +400 | -550 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 50.5 -114 | +428 | -570 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 51 -118 | +402 | -574 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -109 | +400 | -676 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $28 available; Over 49.5, only $109 available; Over 51.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +511 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +560 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +312 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +365 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +427 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.5.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus; moneyline +418 here against +511 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmUnder 54.5weather: 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the totalSniff of Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 54.5, for the weather. 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -107 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +265 | -342 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -107 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -107 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | +275 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -106 | 54.5 -110 | +255 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -106 | 54.5 -105 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +265 | -342 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +270 | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | +240 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 73°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5, only $0 available; Over 53.5, only $276 available; Under 53.5, only $75 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +309 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +11.0 | +374 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +280 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +475 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -330 | -305 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -113 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +309 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmOver 48Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 49.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 -103 49¢ | — | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 48 -107 | -145 | +124 |
All 22 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 -103 49¢ | — | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | — | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | -141 | +115 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 48 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 47.5 -121 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 48.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -110 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 48 -107 | -145 | +124 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -122 | — | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -119 | -159 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $18 available; Under 48.5, only $26 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -107 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -211 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -118 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -120 | -106 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -128 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 6, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Akron is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 52 -105 | +206 | -254 |
All 22 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 50.5 -113 | +235 | -305 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 50.5 -113 | +235 | -305 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +235 | -305 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 51.5 -113 | +230 | -271 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +225 | -278 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -106 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +224 | -285 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 52 -105 | +206 | -254 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -245 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 51.5 -116 | +212 | -300 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -105 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $0 available; Akron Zips +6.5, only $287 available; Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +215 | +198 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -124 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | — | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -117 | -160 | +136 |
All 22 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | — | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 45.5 -129 | -165 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 48.5 -102 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -112 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 45.5 -129 | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -118 | 45.5 -130 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -135 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -117 | -160 | +136 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 47.5 -117 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -174 | +130 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $0 available; Under 48.5, only $204 available; Army Black Knights ML, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +132 | +1.4% |
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -115 | -121 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -108 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmMichigan State +3should be Michigan State +2 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +117 | -137 |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 50 -101 | +121 | -142 |
All 22 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +117 | -137 |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -107 | 49.5 -113 | +115 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +117 | -137 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -107 | 49.5 -113 | +115 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 49.5 -114 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 49.5 -103 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -106 | +120 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 49.5 -103 | +117 | -137 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +115 | -141 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 50 -101 | +121 | -142 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +122 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 49.5 -111 | +111 | -147 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $443 available; Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5, only $0 available; Under 49.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +3.0 | -115 | -119 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3.5should be Arizona -4 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was -3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 61 -111 | +150 | -178 |
All 22 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -105 | 61 -113 | +133 | -165 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 62 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -108 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +141 | -161 |
| betPARX | +3 -105 | 61 -113 | +133 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -106 | 61 -113 | +133 | -167 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 61.5 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -112 | 61.5 -114 | +141 | -161 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +138 | -170 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 61 -111 | +150 | -178 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 61.5 +100 | — | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -119 | 61.5 -114 | +132 | -178 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona -3.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $472 available; West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5, only $322 available; West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +159 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.5 | +101 | -103 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -161 | -166 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +159 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAir Force -7should be Air Force -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5, but the market has moved 5.4 points away from Air Force since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Air Force is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 47 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | — | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -110 | +264 | -340 |
All 21 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 47 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | — | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 +102 | +235 | -305 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -106 | 47 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 +102 | +235 | -305 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | +235 | -305 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -118 | 46.5 -115 | +230 | -285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | +240 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 47 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -110 | +264 | -340 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 +104 | +257 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 46.5 -119 | +244 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.4 away from Air Force, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -7.5, only $191 available; Northern Illinois Huskies ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +298 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +317 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (17 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.0 | -114 | -116 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -285 | -280 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +298 consensus.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3should be Ohio -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -106 | -151 | +128 |
All 22 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 47.5 -114 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 47.5 -114 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 46.5 -113 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 46.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -112 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46.5 -114 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -106 | -151 | +128 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | — | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -116 | -156 | +117 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $147 available; Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $378 available; Over 47.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -246 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -2.5 | -120 | -121 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -146 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9should be California +7.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 7.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9 -108 | 53 -111 | +279 | -363 |
All 22 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9 -112 | 54 -109 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9 -112 | 54 -109 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +9 -112 | 54 -110 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 54 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 53 -110 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +285 | -365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +260 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -106 | 52.5 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +9 -108 | 53 -111 | +279 | -363 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +285 | -317 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | +265 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +9.0. The market has moved 3.8 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5, only $107 available; California Golden Bears +8.5, only $287 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -8.5, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +325 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +315 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +275 | +277 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.8.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +325 consensus.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmGeorgia +2should be Georgia +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5, but the market has moved 4.5 points away from Georgia since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Georgia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -129 | +109 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 55 -113 | -118 | +101 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -129 | +109 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -118 | -104 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 55 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -129 | +109 |
| betPARX | -1 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 55.5 -112 | -120 | -105 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 55.5 -106 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -113 | -106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -111 | 55.5 -103 | -129 | +109 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 55.5 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 55 -113 | -118 | +101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -108 | — | — | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -122 | -108 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -115 | -105 |
Marked: best for Georgia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 44% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5. The market has moved 4.5 away from Georgia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $75 available; Under 55.5, only $193 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $189 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -123 here against -110 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -161 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.0 | -123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -105 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +109 | +110 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -123 here against -110 consensus.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -36should be Northwestern -37 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 36.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 36. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -108 | 53 -109 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -122 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36 -108 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -122 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -124 | 51.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -36.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 58¢ -150 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -118 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -108 | 53 -109 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -36.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $305 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -39.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (17 books) | -36.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -36.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -134 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 51 -109 | -393 | +298 |
All 22 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -125 | 51.5 -112 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 50.5 -118 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -125 | 51.5 -112 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -127 | 51.5 -113 | -480 | +340 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 51 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -112 | 50.5 -118 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 50.5 -120 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 51 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -114 | -385 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -125 | 51.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 51 -108 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 51 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 51 -109 | -393 | +298 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 -117 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -119 | -429 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $13 available; Over 50.5, only $53 available; Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $142 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -355 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -132 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -365 | -322 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20should be Toledo -20 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -111 | 55 -108 | -1259 | +710 |
All 21 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -17.5 -129 | 54.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20 -108 | 54.5 -118 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -17.5 -129 | 54.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -132 | 54.5 -118 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -20 -115 | 55 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -113 | 54.5 -116 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -17.5 -130 | 54.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -106 | 55 -108 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1299 | +710 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -111 | 55 -108 | -1259 | +710 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -125 | -1408 | +630 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $53 available; Over 55.5, only $73 available; Under 55.5, only $210 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -19.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -835 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1228 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -927 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.0 | -1186 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +20.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +900 | +893 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -19.7 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 57.5should be 59.7 · getting 2.2 pts · was 60.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 27.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 58 -107 | — | +1561 |
All 21 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -27.5 -113 | 60.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -27 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -110 | 58.5 +100 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -27.5 -113 | 60.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -114 | 60.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetUS | -27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -27.5 -108 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -27.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 55¢ -132 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -115 | 58.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -110 | 60.5 +100 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -106 | 57.5 -119 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1450 |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 58 -107 | — | +1561 |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 58.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -27.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -120 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $32 available; Over 57.5, only $71 available; Under 57.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1954 |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3124 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -1951 |
| Market (18 books) | -27.5 | -3752 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +27.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1800 | +2206 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -120 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmKansas State -2.5should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -121 53¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -119 | -135 | +115 |
All 22 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -121 53¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 56 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 56 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -114 | -144 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -145 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -119 | -135 | +115 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -133 | +117 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 56.5 -111 | -151 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $144 available; Kansas State Wildcats -2.5, only $80 available; Houston Cougars +2.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.5.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNavy -2.5should be Navy -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | — | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 49 -107 | -132 | +113 |
All 22 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | — | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 49.5 -114 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 49.5 -114 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 49.5 -115 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -113 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 49 -107 | -132 | +113 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -127 | +113 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -141 | +106 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5, only $2 available; Over 48.5, only $106 available; Under 48.5, only $196 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -113 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -206 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.6.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNotre Dame -37.5should be Notre Dame -37.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 +100 | 54.5 -101 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -110 | 54 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -112 | 54 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 +100 | 54.5 +100 | — | — |
| Courtside | -37.5 -116 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -118 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -37.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -108 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37.5 -111 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 +100 | 54.5 -101 | — | — |
| ReBet | -37.5 -119 | 53.5 -119 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $1 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $462 available; Over 53.5, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.8 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -33.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -37.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML | — | — | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.8 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8should be Texas -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -101 | 39 -110 | +263 | -338 |
All 21 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| BetMGM | +8 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -114 | 39.5 -112 | +275 | -375 |
| BetUS | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +265 | -330 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -105 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -102 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -106 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -101 | 39 -110 | +263 | -338 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +242 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -115 | 39.5 -105 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $179 available; Over 39.5, only $9 available; Oklahoma Sooners +8.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +489 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +249 |
| Market (18 books) | +8.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +8.0 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +255 | +287 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -117 | 59 -108 | +292 | -384 |
All 21 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +10 -115 | 59 -110 | +285 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -108 | 58.5 -116 | +293 | -350 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | 58.5 -118 | +285 | -360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 57.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | +270 | -345 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -117 | 59 -108 | +292 | -384 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -109 | 58.5 -119 | +260 | -380 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ole Miss Rebels -9.5, only $40 available; Under 58.5, only $0 available; Vanderbilt Commodores +8.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +339 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +125 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (17 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +296 | +304 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +339 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12should be Oregon -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -12.5 | 59.5 -116 52¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -105 | 60 -108 | -485 | +353 |
All 22 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -12.5 | 59.5 -116 52¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -460 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | -475 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +364 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +370 |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 60 -110 | -490 | +355 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 59.5 -106 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -490 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -106 | 59 -108 | -470 | +364 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -105 | 60 -108 | -485 | +353 |
| Polymarket | -11.5 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 60.5 -114 | -469 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -12.5, only $9 available; Under 59.5, only $0 available; Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -513 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -531 |
| Market (18 books) | -12.0 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -430 | -423 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -10should be East Carolina -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 49 -102 | -402 | +303 |
All 22 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -104 | 49.5 -104 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 48.5 -105 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -10 -104 | 49.5 -104 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -10 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 48.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 48.5 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 +105 | 49.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 48 -108 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 49 -102 | -402 | +303 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 | — | -376 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 48.5 -111 | -450 | +295 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward East Carolina). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates -9.5, only $179 available; Under 48.5, only $364 available; East Carolina Pirates -10.5, only $83 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -371 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -344 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -525 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -10.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -375 | -350 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 33.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 33.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33.5 -117 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -107 | 56 -111 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33.5 -117 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33.5 -117 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -109 | 56 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -103 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33.5 -113 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -107 | 56 -111 | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $250 available; Over 55.5, only $77 available; Under 55.5, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -33.5 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3140 |
| Massey | -31.0 | -3897 |
| Market (17 books) | -33.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +34.5 | -104 | -114 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +5194 | +5990 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -33.5 here against -34.4 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -33.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMarshall -3should be Marshall -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 58.5 -107 | -155 | +132 |
All 21 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -124 | -155 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -124 | -155 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -125 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 58 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 58.5 -106 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 58.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 58.5 -110 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -125 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 58.5 -107 | -155 | +132 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -150 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 58.5 -109 | -159 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 58.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $252 available; Marshall Thundering Herd -2.5, only $103 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -137 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +125 | +136 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +9.5should be Kentucky +8 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -115 | 54 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -116 | 54.5 -106 | +269 | -347 |
All 22 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -115 | 54 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +290 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -115 | 54 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +290 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -112 | 54 -113 | +290 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | +265 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -111 | 54 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -116 | 54.5 -106 | +269 | -347 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 | +285 | -317 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | +260 | -380 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $37 available; Kentucky Wildcats +8.5, only $56 available; LSU Tigers -8.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +311 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +190 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +9.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +275 | +291 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 4.3.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +9.5should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +101 | +281 | -366 |
All 22 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +285 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 49.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +285 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +101 | +281 | -366 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +285 | -355 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 48.5 -119 | +270 | -400 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $27 available; Nevada Wolf Pack -8.5, only $22 available; Under 49.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +210 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.5 | -113 | -104 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +275 | +300 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -126 | +106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 55.5 +109 46¢ | — | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 54 -113 | -114 | -103 |
All 21 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -126 | +106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 55.5 +109 46¢ | — | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -126 | +106 |
| betPARX | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -121 | -104 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 54 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -118 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -103 | -126 | +106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 54 -113 | -114 | -103 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -129 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5, only $181 available; Under 55.5, only $45 available; Penn State Nittany Lions ML, only $213 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -121 here against -108 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -170 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -1.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -118 | -112 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.2.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus; moneyline -121 here against -108 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9should be Virginia -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -109 | -366 | +281 |
All 22 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -360 77¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 51 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 50 -113 | -375 | +270 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 50 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -109 | -366 | +281 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +285 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 50.5 -114 | -420 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $18 available; Syracuse Orange ML, only $96 available; Virginia Cavaliers -8.5, only $192 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -338 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.0 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -350 | -316 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2should be Minnesota -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -105 | 51 -105 | +111 | -131 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +109 | -128 |
All 22 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -105 | 51 -105 | +111 | -131 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +115 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -105 | 51 -105 | +111 | -131 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +115 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 51 -112 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -116 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -101 | 51 -103 | +111 | -131 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +109 | -128 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 51.5 +100 | — | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -119 | +107 | -142 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $9 available; Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $88 available; Under 51.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +179 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -131 | -118 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 52.5 | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -110 | -740 | +487 |
All 21 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 52.5 | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15 -108 | 51.5 -115 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -107 | 52 -110 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 52.5 -103 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 89¢ -1011 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -800 | +520 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -110 | -740 | +487 |
| Polymarket | -14.5 | — | -669 | +525 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -114 | 51.5 -119 | -847 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F, 34% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -14.5, only $160 available; Over 52.5, only $49 available; Utah Utes -14.5, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -545 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -411 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -680 |
| Market (17 books) | -15.5 | -649 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | -113 | -102 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +500 | +548 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | — | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -117 | 51 -107 | -1689 | +863 |
All 22 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | — | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -110 | 51.5 -114 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -102 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -21 -110 | 51.5 -114 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -113 | 51.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 51 -105 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 51.5 +100 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 96¢ -4900 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 51 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 +100 | 51.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 51 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -1493 | +790 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -117 | 51 -107 | -1689 | +863 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -104 | -1567 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -125 | 51.5 -105 | -1695 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5, only $12 available; Over 50.5, only $156 available; Under 50.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -471 |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1322 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -869 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1411 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | +1242 | +910 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6should be Boise State -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | +197 | -242 |
All 22 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6 -105 | 49 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 48.5 -112 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -235 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 +100 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -235 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | +197 | -242 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 -104 | — | +203 | -223 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | +196 | -275 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $211 available; Over 47.5, only $99 available; Under 47.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +193 here against +224 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +290 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -6.0 | -116 | -101 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -235 | -204 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus; moneyline +193 here against +224 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 11
13 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Giants, Giants at CommandersNew York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +3.5should be Giants +2.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +2.5Sniff of Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Commanders by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +104 | 44 -102 | -177 | +155 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -106 | 44 -109 | -190 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -106 | 44 -109 | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -106 | 44 -109 | -190 | +155 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -105 | -180 | +155 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 43.5 -115 | -184 | +154 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 -105 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -188 | +145 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +104 | 44 -102 | -177 | +155 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | — | -170 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $17 available; Washington Commanders -3.5, only $99 available; Over 43.5, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Marcus Mariota (Commanders), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Terry McLaurin (WR, Commanders), Jaylin Lane (WR, Commanders), Thomas Fidone II (TE, Giants) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -180 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | -106 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.5 | -112 | -130 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +150 | +136 | +2.4% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2Sniff of Nasty · ChargersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Chargers. Market says Broncos by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +153 | -175 |
All 23 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +153 | -175 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +156 | -186 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +153 | -198 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +159 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5, only $187 available; Denver Broncos -3.5, only $163 available; Over 42.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dallen Bentley (TE, Broncos), Dondrea Tillman (LB, Broncos).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +152 here against +171 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (20 books) | +3.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +156 | +139 | +2.8% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +152 here against +171 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +6.5should be Titans +6 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was +6.5Sniff of Nasty · TitansBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Titans. Market says Texans by 7, the Nasty Number says Texans by 6. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 39.5 | +252 27¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +105 | 39.5 -107 | +257 | -309 |
All 25 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 39.5 | +252 27¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -105 | 39.5 -108 | +255 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| BetMGM | +7 -108 | 39.5 -108 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +256 | -315 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -105 | 39.5 -108 | +255 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -105 | 39.5 -108 | +255 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 39.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -102 | 39.5 -105 | +265 | -330 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -110 | 39.5 -107 | +256 | -315 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +246 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +105 | 39.5 -107 | +257 | -309 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 | — | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 39.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +6.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 40% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 39.5, only $17 available; Houston Texans ML, only $172 available; Tennessee Titans +6.5, only $202 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Michael Carter (RB, Titans), Kylen Granson (TE, Titans), Marlin Klein (TE, Texans) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +251 here against +292 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +179 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +141 |
| Market (21 books) | +7.0 | +251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 40.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +6.5 | +105 | -109 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +275 | +236 | +3.1% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +292 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmCardinals +5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Cardinals +4 · getting 1 pt at TOM▲Sniff of Nasty · CardinalsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cardinals. Market says Lions by 5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 4. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Cardinals's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | -218 67¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
All 24 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -112 | 54 -107 | +180 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -112 | 54 -118 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -112 | 54 -107 | +180 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -112 | 53.5 -114 | +180 | -230 |
| BetUS | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +218 | -260 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | +184 | -220 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +175 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 54 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 54 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 54 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 +100 | 54.5 -107 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +168 | -220 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 | 54.5 | — | -213 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +188 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +5.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Sniff of Nasty · Cardinals. The line went from +4.5 to +5.0.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions -4.5, only $24 available; Under 54.5, only $17 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $197 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Reggie Virgil (WR, Cardinals), Tyler Conklin (TE, Lions), Bishop Fitzgerald (S, Lions) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +197 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (20 books) | +5.0 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +200 | +183 | +2.0% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +5.0 | -105 | -112 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 10-03 15:28; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmOver 42should be 43.3 · getting 1.3 pts · was 46.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 42.0. Massey and FPI say over by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -381 78¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +303 | -380 |
All 23 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +305 | -400 |
| BetAnything | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +300 | -380 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -112 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +303 | -380 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +305 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +305 | -400 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 42 -110 | +305 | -380 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 42 -110 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +7 -106 | 42.5 -103 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 42.5 -105 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -118 | 42.5 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +290 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 42 -107 | +303 | -380 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -400 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 87°F, 23% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Dolphins).
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $27 available; Miami Dolphins +7.5, only $103 available; Cincinnati Bengals -7.5, only $177 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Brady Cook (Dolphins), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Justin Joly (TE, Dolphins), Bryan Cook (S, Bengals), Swayze Bozeman (LB, Bengals) and 1 more.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +303 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +350 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| Massey | +2.5 | +129 |
| Market (20 books) | +7.0 | +303 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +290 | +273 | +1.1% |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +7.0 | -107 | -106 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +303 here against +346 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers +3should be Packers +2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2, but the market has moved 5.1 points away from Packers since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Packers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 45 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 45 -110 | +130 | -150 |
All 23 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 45 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 44 -113 | +128 | -155 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 45 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 45 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 44 -113 | +128 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 44 -113 | +128 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 45 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -116 | 45.5 -106 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -118 | 44.5 -118 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -115 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -112 | 45 -107 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 45 -110 | +122 | -156 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -120 | +127 | -149 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 5.1 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -2.5, only $38 available; Green Bay Packers ML, only $489 available; Chicago Bears ML, only $490 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Ozzy Trapilo (OT, Bears), Kevin Zeitler (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 3 more.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 44.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | +110 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | +104 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +3.0 | -115 | -130 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +125 | +116 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.1 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 44.7 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmColts +2.5should be Colts +1.5 · getting 1 pt at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Colts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | -139 | +119 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -115 | 44.5 -106 | -137 | +121 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | -139 | +119 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -108 | 44 -107 | -137 | +114 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 44 -112 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | -139 | +119 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -108 | 44 -107 | -137 | +114 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 44 -107 | -137 | +114 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -118 | 43.5 -120 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -107 | -139 | +119 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -142 | +112 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -115 | 44.5 -106 | -137 | +121 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 44.5 | -133 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 44.5 -109 | -137 | +116 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +2.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $2 available; Over 44.5, only $28 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $299 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Drew Allar (Steelers), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out; Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: DJ Giddens (RB, Colts), Darius Slayton (WR, Colts), Dalton Tucker (G, Colts) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -102 |
| Market (21 books) | -2.5 | -133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | -104 | -109 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +119 | +114 | +1.1% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but 49ers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 47 -104 | -148 | +131 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 47 -112 | -157 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 47 -108 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 47 -112 | -157 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 47 -112 | -157 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 47 -105 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -103 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 46.5 -120 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 47 -107 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 47 -104 | -148 | +131 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 47.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 60°F.
Kalshi thin: San Francisco 49ers +2.5, only $368 available; San Francisco 49ers +2.5, only $473 available; Over 46.5, only $116 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jalen Milroe (Seahawks), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jordan James (RB, 49ers), Avery Smith (CB, Seahawks), Ephesians Prysock (CB, 49ers) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +138 | +124 | +2.7% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
All 15 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +3 -118 | 45 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| betPARX | +3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -102 | 44.5 -113 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 44.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +138 | -164 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -156 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Falcons). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $17 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $202 available; Baltimore Ravens ML, only $335 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Chris Moore (WR, Ravens), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Da'Shawn Hand (DT, Falcons).
Atlanta Falcons has had 17 days off against 7, worth about 0.5 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +113 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| Massey | +3.5 | +183 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +140 | +137 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 4.2.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralJaguars -5.5should be Jaguars -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Jaguars by 4.5 to Jaguars by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -112 | 43 -107 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 | 42.5 -121 53¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 43 -103 | -246 | +210 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -112 | 43 -107 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 | 42.5 -121 53¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -109 | 43 -108 | -235 | +190 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 42.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -112 | 43 -107 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -109 | 43 -108 | -235 | +190 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -109 | 43 -108 | -235 | +190 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -115 | 43 -105 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 43 -105 | -250 | +210 |
| Courtside | -6 -106 | 42.5 -116 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 42.5 -118 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -250 | +205 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -245 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -107 | 43 -104 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -265 | +199 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 43 -103 | -246 | +210 |
| Polymarket | -5.5 -113 | — | — | +212 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -120 | -255 | +210 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | -250 | +210 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Jaguars). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5, only $416 available; Under 42.5, only $21 available; Over 42.5, only $147 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: CJ Williams (WR, Jaguars), Lane Johnson (OT, Eagles), Christian Braswell (CB, Jaguars) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -257 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (21 books) | -5.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -5.5 | -112 | -101 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | -240 | -222 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -113 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -2should be Jets -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 2, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 40 -102 | -132 | +117 |
All 25 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -113 | 40 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 40 -108 | -130 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -113 | 40 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetRivers | -2 -108 | 40 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -115 | 39.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 39.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -102 | -130 | +110 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -105 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -138 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 40 -102 | -132 | +117 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 40.5 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -120 | 39.5 -120 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 40.5 +100 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets -1.5, only $1 available; Under 40.5, only $18 available; New York Jets -2.5, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Mason Taylor (TE, Jets), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Elgton Jenkins (C, Browns) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -123 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (21 books) | -2.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 39.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +2.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +110 | +114 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 45.5 | -182 63¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 45 -108 | -191 | +166 |
All 25 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 45.5 | -182 63¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 45.5 -104 | -205 | +172 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 45 -107 | -190 | +165 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -202 | +155 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 45 -108 | -191 | +166 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 45.5 +100 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -193 | +162 |
| theScore Bet | -4 -105 | 45.5 +100 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots -3.5, only $3 available; Over 45.5, only $39 available; Under 45.5, only $427 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out; Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jackson Powers-Johnson (G, Raiders), Channing Canada (CB, Patriots), Jonah Laulu (DT, Raiders).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -201 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -190 | -179 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ |
All 18 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -112 | 42 -110 | +100 | -121 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -112 | 42 -110 | +100 | -121 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -112 | 42 -110 | +100 | -121 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +104 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -118 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -110 | 42 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -110 | 42 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -110 | 42 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 42 -110 | -106 | -120 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +108 | — |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints -0.5, only $334 available; Minnesota Vikings +0.5, only $408 available; Over 42.5, only $163 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Max Brosmer (Vikings), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jakobe Thomas (S, Vikings), Anfernee Jennings (LB, Saints), Kaden Elliss (LB, Saints) and 2 more.
New Orleans Saints has had 13 days off against 6, worth about 0.4 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game | |
| Massey | +2.5 | +148 |
| Market (15 books) | +1.5 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +1.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +100 | +109 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmRams -3should be Rams -2.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -102 | 54.5 -110 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -124 | 54.5 -101 | -159 | +140 |
All 22 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -102 | 54.5 -110 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 54.5 -107 | -150 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 54.5 -108 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -102 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 54.5 -107 | -150 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 54 -114 | -150 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 54 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 54.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 54.5 -110 | -152 | +128 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 53.5 -120 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 54 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 54 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 54 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +103 | 54.5 -107 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -124 | 54.5 -101 | -159 | +140 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Backup QB out: Ty Simpson (Rams), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Colby Parkinson (TE, Rams), Bill Murray (G, Rams), Jaylen Watson (CB, Rams) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -131 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -117 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +134 | +128 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -118 | -118 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-10-1 | 47.4% | -1.7 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 28-32 | 46.7% | -6.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 231 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-05 17:30.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 197 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 288 |
| FPI | 11.25 | 225 |
| SP+ | 11.26 | 225 |
| Massey | 11.31 | 168 |
| Sagarin | 12.42 | 278 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 171 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 168 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 171 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 197 |
The line archive, 288 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 98, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 273 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.56, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 46 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.16 | 46 |
| FPI | 9.47 | 47 |
| The market | 9.47 | 63 |
| Sagarin | 9.58 | 63 |
| nfelo | 9.71 | 62 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 45 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 46 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 46 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 45 |
The line archive, 63 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 19, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.68 points better than the close on average over 58 games. The close misses the final by 9.46, the open by 9.48, our raw ratings number by 9.69, Pinnacle's close by 9.47. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.20, Polymarket 8.24, theScore Bet 8.86.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 137 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 59 times, against it 30, average 0.44 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 82.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| ratings 0% | 311 | 10.63 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 311 | 10.56 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 311 | 10.42 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 311 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 1-1 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Sagarin no vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 137 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 59 of 137 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 82. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nevada at UTEP | Nevada Wolf -9.4 | -9.4 | -9.5 | +0.1 | no call |
| Old Dominion at App State | Appalachian State -7 | -7 | -9.2 | +2.2 | no call |
| Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt +10.4 | 10.4 | 10 | +0.4 | no call |
| Tulane at Army | Tulane Green +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Tulsa at Navy | Tulsa Golden +2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.1 | no call |
| UAB at Memphis | Memphis -14.2 | -14.2 | -14.5 | +0.3 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 239 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 176 | 13.4 | 55-66 (45%) | 35-36 (49%) |
| Massey | 178 | 12.8 | 39-44 (47%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 181 | 12.9 | 40-46 (47%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 53 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.6 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 49 | 10.8 | 13-17 (43%) | 4-6 (40%) |
| FPI | 46 | 10.2 | 10-4 (71%) | 6-1 (86%) |
| The blend | 49 | 10.0 | 11-7 (61%) | 3-2 (60%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 20 | 56% | 50% |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 74 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 5:19pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.5Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zipstoward Eastern Michigan Eagleswith the public
- → 3.3Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggiestoward Utah State Aggieswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 6%, give or take 20% (one standard error, 243 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 62 | 9.71 |
| The market | 351 | 10.82 |
| Massey | 214 | 10.85 |
| FPI | 272 | 10.94 |
| SP+ | 225 | 11.26 |
| Sagarin | 341 | 11.89 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 155-145 | 52% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-11 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 902686 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.52 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.47 |
| Kalshi | 260 | 1.40 |
| BetRivers | 459 | 1.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 433 | 1.37 |
| LowVig.ag | 423 | 1.37 |
| Bally Bet | 249 | 1.35 |
| betPARX | 249 | 1.35 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.34 |
| MyBookie.ag | 352 | 1.27 |
| Courtside | 218 | 1.25 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.19 |
| Fanatics | 395 | 1.18 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 241 | 1.15 |
| BetUS | 360 | 1.12 |
| Bovada | 409 | 1.11 |
| Caesars | 348 | 1.08 |
| theScore Bet | 247 | 1.05 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.04 |
| Pinnacle | 417 | 1.04 |
| BetAnything | 235 | 0.90 |
| Fliff | 199 | 0.83 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 55 | 0.66 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 55 | 0.63 |
| Polymarket | 87 | 0.45 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 7 days ago
- Sagarin updated yesterday
- Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
- nfelo updated 3 days ago