Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

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PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 9:28 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pm✓FPITue 4:30pm✓SagarinTue 8:15am✓MasseySat 6:02am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 112 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloThu 9:18am✓FPISat 6:02am✓SagarinMon 2:55pm✓MasseySat 6:02am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 4 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 13 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Falcons at SteelersFalcons +6-105 · 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Jets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Packers at VikingsUnder 46should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 ptsSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›Broncos at ChiefsUnder 43.5should be 42.5 · getting 1 ptMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Saturday, but 2 come damn near. Close enough to smell it.

Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Falcons at Steelers, Falcons +6. Every system has Steelers by 4.5; the market has Steelers by 6. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Packers at Vikings Under 46 the strongest at 2.9% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Small money, our side, no receipt.

If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Don't tell anyone I said so.

Buck

Today

5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Arkansas at Utah

GameThe call

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah

CFB 9:40pm

Over 56

should be 57.3 · getting 1.3 pts · was 55.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 13. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 13.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

Utah by 12

FPI

Utah by 11

Sagarin

Utah by 10.5

Massey

Utah by 3

Nasty Number

Utah by 130.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

64.78.7 pts over the market

Massey

59.43.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

626 pts over the market

Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-13.5 -107	56 -110	-550	+400
Kalshi	-13.5 -126 54¢	—	—	+398 19¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -101	55.5 -109	-525	+405

All 12 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-13.5 -107	56 -110	-550	+400
Kalshi	-13.5 -126 54¢	—	—	+398 19¢
BetMGM	-13.5 -112	55.5 -110	-550	+425
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -107	56 -110	-550	+415
BetUS	-13.5 -115	55.5 -110	-550	+425
Bovada	-14 +100	55.5 -110	-600	+425
Caesars	-13.5 -113	55.5 -115	-560	+400
DraftKings	-13.5 -120	55.5 -110	-625	+455
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	55.5 -110	-575	+425
FanDuel	-13.5 -112	55.5 -115	-600	+450
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -143	55.5 -111	-500	+375
Pinnacle	-13.5 -101	55.5 -109	-525	+405

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +13.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 6.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $321 available; Over 56.5, only $337 available; Under 56.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -526 here against -432 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-368
FPI	-11.0	-335
Sagarin	-10.5	-309
Massey	-3.0	-136
Market (10 books)	-13.5	-526

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	62.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5	-113	+104	-4.0%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+400	+416	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Utah Utes since 09-12 12:25.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus; moneyline -526 here against -432 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada

CFB 9:30pm

No bet

market says Montana State by 4.5, our data says Montana State by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Montana State than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Montana State by 4.5TOM, -105

The Four

Sagarin

Montana State by 8

Nasty Number

Montana State by 5.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Montana State by 3.5 to Montana State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Montana State ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	51.5 -115	+160	-190
Pinnacle	+5 -106	51.5 -110	+175	-216

All 12 books

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Montana State ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	51.5 -115	+160	-190
BetMGM	+5 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	51.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	+5 -110	51 -109	+170	-215
Bovada	+5.5 -105	51.5 -110	+180	-220
Caesars	+4.5 -109	51.5 -112	+168	-209
DraftKings	+4.5 -105	51.5 -112	+180	-218
Fanatics	+5 -110	52 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -110	51.5 -112	+168	-205
LowVig.ag	+4.5 -105	51.5 -115	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5 -110	51.5 -110	+171	-222
Pinnacle	+5 -106	51.5 -110	+175	-216

Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Montana State -4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Montana State to win · -190 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.

Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Montana State).

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +167 here against +187 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMontana State by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Montana State
FPI	doesn't rate Montana State
Sagarin	+8.0	+233
Massey	rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales
Market (11 books)	+4.5	+167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Montana State Bobcats -4.5	-115	-102	-3.0%
Moneyline	Montana State Bobcats ML	-190	-180	-1.3%

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Montana State Bobcats since 09-12 09:18.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.9 consensus; moneyline +167 here against +187 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State

CFB 9:35pm

Over 43.5

should be 44.5 · getting 1 pt · was 45

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Fresno State by 17.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Fresno State by 13.5

FPI

Fresno State by 13.5

Sagarin

Fresno State by 13

Massey

Fresno State by 3

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 161.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

44.30.8 pts over the market

Massey

49.76.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

473.5 pts over the market

Over 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-17.5 -115	43.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-19 +100	43.5 -110	-1033	+694

All 13 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-17.5 -115	43.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-18 -105	43.5 -110	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-17.5 -115	43.5 -110	-1100	+709
BetRivers	-18 -109	44.5 -108	-1250	+700
BetUS	-17.5 -110	43.5 -110	-1100	+700
Bovada	-18.5 -110	43.5 -110	-1100	+650
Caesars	-17.5 -113	43.5 -114	-1200	+675
DraftKings	-17.5 -110	43.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-18 -110	43.5 -115	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-17.5 -115	43.5 -115	-1250	+740
LowVig.ag	-17.5 -111	43.5 -108	-1100	+709
MyBookie.ag	-18 -110	44 -110	-1299	+720
Pinnacle	-19 +100	43.5 -110	-1033	+694

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +17.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +700

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 1630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-457
FPI	-13.5	-451
Sagarin	-13.0	-416
Massey	-3.0	-139
Market (12 books)	-17.5	-726

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +17.5	-105	+102	-1.7%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+700	+626	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 43.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.4 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC

CFB 10:00pm

Over 59

should be 59.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 59.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.5.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore USC →

Market

USC by 31.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

USC by 25.5

FPI

USC by 26.5

Sagarin

USC by 29.5

Massey

USC by 4

Nasty Number

USC by 29.52.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

65.16.1 pts over the market

Massey

57.11.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.12.1 pts over the market

Over 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-31.5 -105	59 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+3021 3¢
Pinnacle	-31 +102	59 -102	—	—

All 14 books

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-31.5 -105	59 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+3021 3¢
BetMGM	-30.5 -110	59.5 -102	—	+2500
BetOnline.ag	-31.5 -105	59 -105	—	+1787
BetRivers	-31 -117	59 -112	—	—
BetUS	-31 -110	59 -110	—	—
Bovada	-31 -105	58.5 -110	—	+1600
Caesars	-29.5 -120	58 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-30.5 -112	58.5 -108	—	+1800
Fanatics	-31 -110	58.5 -115	—	+2500
FanDuel	-30.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	+3000
LowVig.ag	-31.5 +103	59.5 -103	—	+1787
MyBookie.ag	-31 -110	59 -110	—	+1559
Pinnacle	-31 +102	59 -102	—	—

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +31.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +1800

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 29.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.5	-2334
FPI	-26.5	-2649
Sagarin	-29.5	-4325
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-31.5	-2049

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	61.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.5	-115	+125	-9.1%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+1800	+4189	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.0	-105	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.9 consensus.

The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'i

CFB 11:00pm

No bet

market says Hawai'i by 7.5, our data says Hawai'i by 7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Hawai'i →

Market

Hawai'i by 7.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Hawai'i by 10

FPI

Hawai'i by 8.5

Sagarin

Hawai'i by 8

Massey

Hawai'i by 2.5

Nasty Number

Hawai'i by 7.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Hawai'i by 7 to Hawai'i by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

53.23.2 pts over the market

Massey

51.81.8 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

51.81.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Hawai'i spread	Total (over)	Hawai'i ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-7.5 -105	50 -115	-310	+235
Pinnacle	-7.5 +101	50 -108	-319	+265

All 13 books

	Hawai'i spread	Total (over)	Hawai'i ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-7.5 -105	50 -115	-310	+235
BetMGM	-7.5 -108	50.5 -108	-295	+240
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -105	50 -115	-310	+252
BetRivers	-7 -115	49.5 -114	-295	+220
BetUS	-7 -115	50.5 -110	-310	+255
Bovada	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-7.5 -104	50.5 -109	-310	+240
DraftKings	-7.5 -105	50.5 -110	-298	+240
Fanatics	-7.5 +100	50 -110	-310	+250
FanDuel	-7.5 +100	49.5 -114	-285	+230
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -101	50 -114	-310	+252
MyBookie.ag	-7 -115	50.5 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-7.5 +101	50 -108	-319	+265

Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -7.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Hawai'i to win · -310 at TOM

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Full detail

We settle onHawai'i by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-302
FPI	-8.5	-245
Sagarin	-8.0	-237
Massey	-2.5	-128
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-297

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.5	-105	+116	-4.9%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	-310	-227	-6.2%
Total	Over 50.0	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tomorrow

13 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Falcons +6

should be Falcons +5.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +3

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Falcons +6.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Steelers by 6TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Steelers by 51 pts our side

FPI

Steelers by 51.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Steelers by 41.9 pts our side

Massey

Steelers by 23.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Steelers by 5.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Falcons. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

43.12.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.12.1 pts over the market

Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-6 -115	41 -110	-290	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-6 -112	41 -108	-291	+244

All 14 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-6 -115	41 -110	-290	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
BetMGM	-6.5 -112	40.5 -110	-300	+240
BetOnline.ag	-6 -110	41 -110	-280	+230
BetRivers	-6 -113	41 -109	-265	+210
BetUS	-6.5 -110	40.5 -110	-280	+235
Bovada	-6.5 -105	41 -110	-290	+240
Caesars	-6 -110	40.5 -120	-280	+225
DraftKings	-6 -110	40.5 -118	-265	+215
Fanatics	-6.5 -105	41 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-5.5 -118	40.5 -118	-290	+235
LowVig.ag	-6 -109	41 -107	-280	+230
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	41 -110	-285	+222
Pinnacle	-6 -112	41 -108	-291	+244

Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +6.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +230 at TOM

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Falcons loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

A Little Nasty

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 2.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Falcons to win · +230 at TOM. A price bet, Falcons loses more often than not.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 2.9 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.

TOM: moneyline -278 here against -250 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-184
FPI	-5.0	-181
Sagarin	-4.0	-164
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+230	+197	+3.4%
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +6.0	-105	-117	+2.8%
Total	Over 41.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: moneyline -278 here against -250 consensus.

New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Titans PK

should be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Titans →

Market

a pick'emTOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Titans by 33.1 pts our side

FPI

Titans by 33.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Titans by 4.54.4 pts our side

Massey

Titans by 22.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Titans by 10.9 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

38.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

44.66.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.66.1 pts over the market

Over 38.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Jets ML
TOM	PK -116	38.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	38.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
Pinnacle	-1 -105	38.5 -115	-112	-101

All 14 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Jets ML
TOM	PK -116	38.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	38.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
BetMGM	-1.5 -108	38.5 -110	-120	+105
BetOnline.ag	PK -116	38.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-1.5 -110	38.5 -110	-125	+104
BetUS	PK -120	38.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-1 -110	39 -110	-115	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -109	38.5 -112	-120	+102
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	38.5 -112	-122	+102
Fanatics	-1 -110	38.5 -115	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -108	38.5 -110	-118	+100
LowVig.ag	PK -112	38.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1 -110	38.5 -110	-121	-101
Pinnacle	-1 -105	38.5 -115	-112	-101

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans PK · -116 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · -120

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48.

Not Nasty

the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45. That's 6.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.

Full detail

We settle onTitans by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-146
FPI	-3.0	-145
Sagarin	-4.5	-171
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (12 books)	PK	-107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans PK	-116	-112	-0.9%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-120	-112	-1.8%
Total	Over 38.5	-110	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Under 46

should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 1TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 1on the market

FPI

Packers by 1.52.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Packers by 0.51.5 pts our side

Massey

Vikings by 21 pts against us

Nasty Number

Vikings by 0.50.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Packers. Massey at Vikings by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM, Under -105

The Four

Massey

41.64.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.64.4 pts under the market

Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Packers ML
TOM	-1 -125	46 -115	-132	+112
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-1 -120	46 -110	-127	+113

All 14 books

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Packers ML
TOM	-1 -125	46 -115	-132	+112
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
BetMGM	-2 -108	46.5 -110	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-1 -125	46 -115	-132	+112
BetRivers	-2 -108	46 -113	-127	+105
BetUS	-1 -120	46 -115	-125	+105
Bovada	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
Caesars	-1.5 -113	46.5 -107	-129	+109
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	46.5 -108	-130	+110
Fanatics	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	46.5 -108	-126	+108
LowVig.ag	-1 -121	46 -113	-132	+112
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-127	+104
Pinnacle	-1 -120	46 -110	-127	+113

Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers +1.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · +112 at TOM

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 42. That's 4.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-110
FPI	+1.5	+117
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-126

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	+112	+109	+0.6%
Spread	Green Bay Packers +1.0	+105	+103	+0.4%
Total	Under 46.0	-105	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Over 44.5

should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Bills by 1TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 1

FPI

Bills by 0.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Texans by 2

Nasty Number

Bills by 0.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

46.92.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.92.4 pts over the market

Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bills ML
TOM	+1 -105	44.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+1 -102	45 +101	+104	-117

All 14 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bills ML
TOM	+1 -105	44.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	44.5 -108	+100	-120
BetOnline.ag	+1 +100	44.5 -110	+105	-125
BetRivers	+2 -113	44.5 -112	+104	-125
BetUS	+1 -105	44.5 -110	+105	-125
Bovada	+1.5 -115	44.5 -110	+100	-120
Caesars	+1.5 -112	44.5 -109	+103	-121
DraftKings	+1.5 -112	44.5 -110	-102	-118
Fanatics	+1.5 -115	44.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -115	44.5 -110	-104	-112
LowVig.ag	+1 +101	44.5 -107	+105	-125
MyBookie.ag	+1 -110	44.5 -110	-102	-120
Pinnacle	+1 -102	45 +101	+104	-117

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans +1.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Texans to win · +103

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-110
FPI	+0.5	+104
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans +1.0	-105	+101	-1.5%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	+103	+107	-1.0%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Under 47

should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Bears by 3TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 2

FPI

Bears by 2

Sagarin

Bears by 2

Massey

Panthers by 1.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM, Under -110

The Four

Massey

43.23.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.23.8 pts under the market

Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+3 -108	47 -110	+138	-168
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	46.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+3 -106	47.5 +100	+146	-166

All 14 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+3 -108	47 -110	+138	-168
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	46.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-161 60¢
BetMGM	+3 -102	47 -110	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	47 -110	+149	-170
BetRivers	+3 -107	47 -110	+140	-175
BetUS	+3 -105	47 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+3 -110	—	—	—
Caesars	+3 -106	47 -113	+142	-170
DraftKings	+3 -102	47.5 -110	+140	-166
Fanatics	+3 -105	47.5 -105	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3 -105	47.5 -102	+150	-178
LowVig.ag	+3 -105	47 -107	+149	-170
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	47 -110	+141	-174
Pinnacle	+3 -106	47.5 +100	+146	-166

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +138 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 3.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+125
FPI	+2.0	+127
Sagarin	+2.0	+129
Massey	-1.5	-123
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +3.0	-108	-105	-0.8%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+138	+140	-0.3%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Under 50

should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Lions →

Market

Lions by 7TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 9

FPI

Lions by 7.5

Sagarin

Lions by 7.5

Massey

Lions by 2.5

Nasty Number

Lions by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM, Under -110

The Four

Massey

44.95.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.95.1 pts under the market

Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Saints ML
TOM	-7 -107	50 -110	-310	+235
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	49.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	+266 26¢
Pinnacle	-7 -105	49.5 -115	-322	+267

All 14 books

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Saints ML
TOM	-7 -107	50 -110	-310	+235
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	49.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	+266 26¢
BetMGM	-7 -110	50 -108	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7 -108	50 -110	-310	+252
BetRivers	-7 -110	49.5 -113	-345	+265
BetUS	-7 -110	50 -110	-310	+255
Bovada	-7 -110	50 -105	-330	+265
Caesars	-7 -106	49.5 -117	-320	+250
DraftKings	-7 -110	49.5 -112	-340	+270
Fanatics	-7 -110	49.5 -110	-330	+260
FanDuel	-6.5 -122	49.5 -115	-335	+270
LowVig.ag	-7 -103	50 -107	-310	+252
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	50 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-7 -105	49.5 -115	-322	+267

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -7.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -310 at TOM

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45. That's 5.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.0	-305
FPI	-7.5	-251
Sagarin	-7.5	-260
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-297

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	44.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -7.0	-107	+115	-5.2%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-310	-243	-4.8%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Under 47

should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 9.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 9

FPI

Chargers by 10.5

Sagarin

Chargers by 14

Massey

Chargers by 2

Nasty Number

Chargers by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM, Under -105

The Four

Massey

42.54.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.54.5 pts under the market

Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-9.5 -105	47 -115	-500	+370
Pinnacle	-9.5 -101	47 -115	-479	+375

All 13 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-9.5 -105	47 -115	-500	+370
BetMGM	-9 -110	47.5 -108	-500	+380
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -105	47 -115	-515	+393
BetRivers	-9 -112	47 -113	-480	+350
BetUS	-9.5 -105	47.5 -110	-515	+400
Bovada	-9 -110	47.5 -110	-500	+360
Caesars	-9.5 -108	47.5 -108	-530	+400
DraftKings	-9.5 -115	47.5 -105	-520	+390
Fanatics	-9 -110	47.5 -110	-500	+370
FanDuel	-9.5 -105	47.5 -104	-490	+380
LowVig.ag	-9.5 +100	47 -113	-515	+393
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	47 -110	-505	+356
Pinnacle	-9.5 -101	47 -115	-479	+375

Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers -9.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chargers to win · -500 at TOM

We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 4.5 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline -478 here against -396 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.0	-307
FPI	-10.5	-366
Sagarin	-14.0	-618
Massey	-2.0	-131
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-478

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Chargers -9.5	-105	+109	-3.5%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Chargers ML	-500	-331	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-105	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 19:42.

TOM: moneyline -478 here against -396 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Ravens by 3TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 2

FPI

Ravens by 2

Sagarin

Ravens by 3

Massey

Colts by 2

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

48.90.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.90.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 -105	48 -110	+138	-168
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	47.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -119	47.5 -117	+151	-172

All 14 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 -105	48 -110	+138	-168
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	47.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
BetMGM	+3 +100	47.5 -110	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	48 -105	+145	-165
BetRivers	+3.5 -114	48 -108	+143	-175
BetUS	+3 +100	48 -110	+142	-165
Bovada	+3 +100	48 -105	+150	-175
Caesars	+3 -102	47.5 -117	+147	-176
DraftKings	+3.5 -115	47.5 -115	+145	-175
Fanatics	+3 -105	47.5 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	47.5 -114	+148	-176
LowVig.ag	+3 +100	48 -102	+145	-165
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	48 -110	+132	-162
Pinnacle	+3.5 -119	47.5 -117	+151	-172

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +138 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+128
FPI	+2.0	+124
Sagarin	+3.0	+148
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.0	-105	-105	-0.1%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+138	+140	-0.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Bengals →

Market

Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 4.5

FPI

Bengals by 3.5

Sagarin

Bengals by 4

Massey

Bengals by 2

Nasty Number

Bengals by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

Massey

48.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.51.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Buccaneers ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	50 -112	-205	+165
Kalshi	-3.5	50.5 -103 49¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-4 -101	50 -110	-200	+174

All 14 books

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Buccaneers ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	50 -112	-205	+165
Kalshi	-3.5	50.5 -103 49¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -115	50.5 -108	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	50.5 -105	-205	+177
BetRivers	-4 -110	50.5 -109	-210	+170
BetUS	-3.5 -115	50.5 -105	-205	+175
Bovada	-3.5 -115	50 -110	-210	+175
Caesars	-3.5 -111	50.5 -109	-205	+171
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	50.5 -108	-205	+170
Fanatics	-4 -110	50.5 -105	-205	+170
FanDuel	-3.5 -118	50.5 -112	-210	+176
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -110	50.5 -102	-205	+177
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	50.5 -110	-214	+171
Pinnacle	-4 -101	50 -110	-200	+174

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · -205 at TOM

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 85°F.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-171
FPI	-3.5	-158
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-196

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	48.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals -3.5	-115	+111	-6.1%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	-205	-155	-6.4%
Total	Under 50.0	-108	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 9.5TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 9

FPI

Jaguars by 8.5

Sagarin

Jaguars by 9.5

Massey

Jaguars by 2.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM

The Four

Massey

41.31.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

41.31.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9.5 -104	40 -112	-405	+295
Kalshi	-9.5 -103 49¢	40.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -101	40.5 +100	-405	+326

All 14 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9.5 -104	40 -112	-405	+295
Kalshi	-9.5 -103 49¢	40.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+351 21¢
BetMGM	-9 -110	40 -110	-450	+333
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -104	40 -112	-400	+316
BetRivers	-8.5 -109	40.5 -106	-420	+320
BetUS	-9.5 -105	40 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-9 -110	40 -110	-420	+315
Caesars	-9.5 -104	39.5 -127	-420	+320
DraftKings	-8.5 -112	39.5 -118	-455	+350
Fanatics	-8.5 -110	40 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -112	40.5 -102	-460	+360
LowVig.ag	-9.5 +101	40 -109	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-9 -110	40 -110	-481	+350
Pinnacle	-9.5 -101	40.5 +100	-405	+326

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +295 at TOM

We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.0 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.0	-311
FPI	-8.5	-288
Sagarin	-9.5	-334
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-388

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.5	-116	-113	-0.7%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+295	+320	-1.5%
Total	Over 40.0	-112	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

No bet

market says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Raiders by 3TOM, -113

The Four

nfelo

Raiders by 5

FPI

Raiders by 3.5

Sagarin

Raiders by 5.5

Massey

Raiders by 2

Nasty Number

Raiders by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM

The Four

Massey

410.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

410.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-3 -113	40.5 -105	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	40.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3 -109	40.5 -103	-164	+144

All 14 books

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-3 -113	40.5 -105	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	40.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
BetMGM	-3 -115	40.5 -110	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3 -113	40.5 -110	-165	+145
BetRivers	-3 -114	40.5 -107	-159	+130
BetUS	-3 -115	40 -110	-165	+142
Bovada	-3 -115	40 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3 -110	40.5 -106	-170	+140
DraftKings	-3 -112	40.5 -105	-170	+142
Fanatics	-3 -115	40.5 -110	-170	+140
FanDuel	-3 -112	39.5 -118	-164	+138
LowVig.ag	-3 -108	40.5 -107	-165	+145
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	40 -110	-171	+139
Pinnacle	-3 -109	40.5 -103	-164	+144

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders -3.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · -165 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.

Full detail

We settle onRaiders by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-179
FPI	-3.5	-152
Sagarin	-5.5	-202
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	41.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders -3.0	-113	-101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	-165	-148	-2.6%
Total	Over 40.5	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

No bet

market says Eagles by 5.5, our data says Eagles by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Eagles →

Market

Eagles by 5.5TOM, -109

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 6

FPI

Eagles by 5.5

Sagarin

Eagles by 6.5

Massey

Eagles by 2.5

Nasty Number

Eagles by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Eagles by 5 to Eagles by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

44.70.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.70.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-5.5 -109	44 -110	-245	+195
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-229 68¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 -104	44.5 -101	-241	+206

All 14 books

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-5.5 -109	44 -110	-245	+195
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-229 68¢	+198 32¢
BetMGM	-5.5 -110	44.5 -105	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-5 -115	44 -110	-247	+205
BetRivers	-5.5 -110	44.5 -106	-250	+205
BetUS	-5.5 -110	44 -110	-245	+205
Bovada	-5.5 -110	44 -110	-245	+205
Caesars	-5.5 -110	44 -113	-245	+200
DraftKings	-6 -108	44.5 -105	-250	+205
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	44 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	44.5 -105	-250	+205
LowVig.ag	-5 -110	44 -107	-247	+205
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	44.5 -110	-250	+198
Pinnacle	-5.5 -104	44.5 -101	-241	+206

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles -5.5 · -109 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · -245 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Eagles).

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles) and 7 more.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-207
FPI	-5.5	-194
Sagarin	-6.5	-218
Massey	-2.5	-135
Market (12 books)	-5.5	-234

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -5.5	-109	+107	-3.9%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-245	-198	-4.6%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-06 17:09.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Cowboys by 3TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 1.5

FPI

Cowboys by 1.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 2

Massey

Giants by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

49.31.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.31.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cowboys ML
TOM	+3 -110	48 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +116	47.5 -116	+146	-166

All 14 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cowboys ML
TOM	+3 -110	48 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
BetMGM	+3 -110	48 -110	+138	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3 -113	48 -108	+139	-159
BetRivers	+3 -118	48 -108	+132	-157
BetUS	+3 -110	48 -110	+134	-155
Bovada	+3 -110	48 -110	+145	-170
Caesars	+3 -111	48 -110	+136	-162
DraftKings	+3 -115	48.5 -105	+136	-162
Fanatics	+3 -110	48 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3 -112	48.5 -105	+134	-158
LowVig.ag	+3 -108	48 -105	+139	-159
MyBookie.ag	+3 -120	48 -110	+135	-167
Pinnacle	+2.5 +116	47.5 -116	+146	-166

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +3.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+122
FPI	+1.5	+121
Sagarin	+2.0	+131
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +3.0	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+135	+137	-0.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs

NFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pm

Under 43.5

should be 42.5 · getting 1 pt

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 3.50.8 pts our side

FPI

Chiefs by 30.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Chiefs by 30.3 pts our side

Massey

Chiefs by 20.5 pts against us

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 2.50.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Chiefs. Massey at Chiefs by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

Massey

39.24.3 pts under the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

38.55 pts under the market

Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	44 +101	-138	+122

All 14 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	43.5 -115	-135	+115
BetRivers	-2.5 -118	43.5 -108	-148	+120
BetUS	-2 -120	43.5 -115	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -114	43.5 -112	-139	+118
DraftKings	-2.5 -112	43.5 -110	-135	+114
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	43.5 -112	-134	+114
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	43.5 -113	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-142	+116
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	44 +101	-138	+122

Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -2.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -138 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 39. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-150
FPI	-3.0	-147
Sagarin	-3.0	-141
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-132

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	38.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -2.5	-110	-111	+0.1%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-138	-137	-0.2%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Thu Sep 17

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at Pittsburgh

CFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm

Over 52.5

should be 53.3 · getting 0.8 pts · was 59.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 9.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.30.8 pts over the market

Massey

59.57 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.43.9 pts over the market

Over 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	Syracuse ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	Syracuse ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	52.5 -110	-330	+260
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	—	-380	+275

Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 60. That's 3.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Syracuse). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $101 available; Syracuse Orange ML, only $361 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Market (2 books)	-9.5	-286

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	56.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-10 10:21; total has moved down 7.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills

NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 3

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 3

FPI

Bills by 3.5

Sagarin

Bills by 4

Massey

Bills by 2

Nasty Number

Bills by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

Massey

51.20.5 pts under the market

Weather

-1.050% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

50.21.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-175 62¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	51.5 -105	—	—

All 10 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-175 62¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	51.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-3 -112	52.5 -109	-175	+140
BetUS	-3 -120	51.5 -105	—	—
Caesars	-3 -117	51.5 -115	-170	+144
DraftKings	-3 -115	51.5 -115	-162	+136
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	51.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-196	+164
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	51.5 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	51.5 -110	-172	+134

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · -172

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions ML, only $341 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-141
FPI	-3.5	-152
Sagarin	-4.0	-164
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bills -3.0	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	-172	-146	-3.8%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 18

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake Forest

CFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Miami by 22, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Wake Forest →

Market

Miami by 22

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Wake Forest's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

43.610.4 pts under the market

Massey

53.40.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.55.5 pts under the market

Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+23.5	53.5 -116 52¢	—	-1684 94¢

All 3 books

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+23.5	53.5 -116 52¢	—	-1684 94¢
DraftKings	+22.5 -112	54.5 -108	+1000	-1800
FanDuel	+21.5 -115	53.5 -110	+920	-1800

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +23.5, only $4 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Wake Forest's last game
Market (2 books)	+22.0	+1003

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	48.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 1.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Sep 19

7 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Arizona State by 5.5, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Arizona State's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

53.30.7 pts under the market

Massey

57.83.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

55.51.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

the Over 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Arizona State's last game
Market (2 books)	-5.5	-189

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at Alabama

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 50.5

should be 49.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 18.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

44.85.7 pts under the market

Massey

51.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.92.6 pts under the market

Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Alabama).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
Market (1 books)	-18.5	-840

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&M

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Texas A&M by 15.5, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore Texas A&M →

Market

Texas A&M by 15.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

50.21.7 pts over the market

Massey

49.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

501.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Kentucky ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas A&M).

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $25 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Market (2 books)	-15.5	-546

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24.

Priced once the new ratings land.

SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at Louisville

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 59.5

should be 58.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 57.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more SMU than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game

FPI

hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game

Massey

hasn't seen SMU's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

The Four

SP+ pace

54.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

58.21.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

56.53 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	SMU ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

the Under 59.5 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. That's 3.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward SMU).

Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals ML, only $0 available; SMU Mustangs ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPI	hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Massey	hasn't seen SMU's last game
Market (1 books)	-1.5	-101

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward SMU Mustangs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 2.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at Indiana

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

Under 59.5

should be 58.5 · getting 1 pt

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Indiana by 44.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.81.7 pts under the market

Massey

54.45.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

56.13.4 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Western Kentucky ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

the Under 59.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Market (1 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	56.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre Dame

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 29.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.22.7 pts over the market

Massey

53.30.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.31.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Market (1 books)	-29.5	-2277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	54.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West Virginia

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

Under 53.5

should be 52.2 · getting 1.3 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 9.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game

Massey

hasn't seen West Virginia's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.47.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.81.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.14.4 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
Kalshi	—	53.5 -116 52¢	—	—

All 3 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
Kalshi	—	53.5 -116 52¢	—	—
DraftKings	+8.5 -112	53.5 -115	+260	-325
FanDuel	+10.5 -115	53.5 -115	+285	-365

Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 52. That's 4.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $2 available; West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $236 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Massey	hasn't seen West Virginia's last game
Market (2 books)	+9.5	+288

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sun Sep 20

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Falcons by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

Falcons by 1.5

FPI

Falcons by 1.5

Sagarin

Falcons by 2

Massey

Falcons by 2

Nasty Number

Falcons by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

43.50.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.50.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	-116 52¢	-103 49¢

All 7 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
BetRivers	-1.5 -110	43.5 -110	-124	+102
BetUS	-1.5 -110	42.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-1.5 -108	42.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	42.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 +100	42.5 -110	-108	-108
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	42.5 -110	-122	-104

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons -1.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · -122

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onFalcons by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-120
FPI	-1.5	-120
Sagarin	-2.0	-128
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (6 books)	-1.5	-108

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	43.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons -1.5	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	-122	-121	-0.2%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Under 46.5

should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 pts

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 7.5

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 9.5

FPI

Ravens by 8

Sagarin

Ravens by 9.5

Massey

Ravens by 2.5

Nasty Number

Ravens by 80.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

The Four

Massey

42.83.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.83.7 pts under the market

Under 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
Kalshi	—	—	-404 79¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
Kalshi	—	—	-404 79¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-7.5 -112	46.5 -110	-400	+300
BetUS	-7.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-7.5 -109	46.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	46.5 -110	-355	+280
FanDuel	-8.5 -104	46.5 -118	-460	+360
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -105	46.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8 -110	46.5 -110	-410	+290

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -7.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -400

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.5 · -110

Massey projects 43. That's 3.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.5	-323
FPI	-8.0	-278
Sagarin	-9.5	-319
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (8 books)	-7.5	-325

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	42.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -7.5	-110	+114	-5.7%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-400	-270	-7.0%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Under 45.5

should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 pts

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 3

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 2.5

FPI

Bears by 3.5

Sagarin

Bears by 3.5

Massey

Bears by 2

Nasty Number

Bears by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

Massey

41.44.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.44.2 pts under the market

Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 +105	45.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 +105	45.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3 -110	45.5 -112	-165	+135
BetUS	-3 +105	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -104	45.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-166	+140
FanDuel	-3 -105	46.5 -110	-154	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 +110	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	46 -110	-168	+131

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -165

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

Massey projects 41. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-137
FPI	-3.5	-155
Sagarin	-3.5	-154
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (8 books)	-3.0	-145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	41.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -3.0	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-165	-144	-3.2%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2.5

FPI

Texans by 2

Sagarin

Texans by 3

Massey

Texans by 2.5

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

471.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

471.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 +103	45.5 -105	—	—

All 9 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 +103	45.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	46 -113	-141	+116
BetUS	-3 +105	45.5 -105	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -114	45.5 -113	-139	+119
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	45.5 -110	-148	+124
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	46.5 -110	-136	+116
LowVig.ag	-3 +108	45.5 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-146	+115

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +2.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · +117

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Houston Texans ML, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-2.0	-126
Sagarin	-3.0	-144
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (8 books)	-2.5	-128

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals +2.5	-110	+111	-5.0%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	+117	+138	-4.0%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 8

FPI

Buccaneers by 7.5

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 7.5

Massey

Buccaneers by 2.5

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

40.8on the market

Nasty Number

40.8on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
Kalshi	—	—	-322 75¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -118	40.5 -115	—	—

All 9 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
Kalshi	—	—	-322 75¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -118	40.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-6.5 -110	41.5 -110	-295	+230
BetUS	-6.5 -120	40.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-6.5 -117	40.5 -124	—	—
DraftKings	-6.5 -110	42.5 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-6.5 -120	40.5 -105	-330	+265
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -109	40.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	41 -110	-319	+236

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -6.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · -300

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.0 · -110

Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $484 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.0	-265
FPI	-7.5	-249
Sagarin	-7.5	-251
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (8 books)	-6.5	-256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	40.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	-300	-228	-5.5%
Total	Under 41.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 5.5

FPI

Packers by 6

Sagarin

Packers by 7

Massey

Jets by 1.5

Nasty Number

Packers by 5.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

43.61.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
Kalshi	—	—	+189 33¢	-250 70¢
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
Kalshi	—	—	+189 33¢	-250 70¢
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+5.5 -109	42.5 -112	+200	-245
BetUS	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+5.5 -109	42.5 -110	+200	-245
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	42.5 -110	+200	-245
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	42.5 -118	+200	-245
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -110	42.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	42.5 -110	+189	-250

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -5.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -245

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.5	+198
FPI	+6.0	+206
Sagarin	+7.0	+239
Massey	-1.5	-120
Market (8 books)	+5.5	+212

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	43.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -5.5	-110	+107	-4.2%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-245	-197	-4.6%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Under 43.5

should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 4.5

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 4.5

FPI

Patriots by 3.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game

Massey

Patriots by 1.5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

The Four

Massey

39.73.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.73.8 pts under the market

Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+152 38¢

All 6 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+152 38¢
BetRivers	-4.5 -110	43.5 -112	-210	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	43.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-4.5 -105	43.5 -110	-200	+160
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	43.5 -110	-205	+170
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	43.5 -110	-214	+164

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +4.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +164

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110

Massey projects 40. That's 3.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $294 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-188
FPI	-3.5	-161
Sagarin	hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game
Massey	-1.5	-131
Market (5 books)	-4.5	-179

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	39.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5	-110	-116	+1.3%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+164	+166	-0.3%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Titans to win

our data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 5

FPI

Eagles by 4

Sagarin

Eagles by 5

Massey

Titans by 1.5

Nasty Number

Eagles by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

43.71.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.71.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-263 71¢
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-263 71¢
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+5.5 -110	42.5 -110	+200	-245
BetUS	+5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+5.5 -109	42.5 -107	+198	-240
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	42.5 -110	+190	-230
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	41.5 -115	+210	-255
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -110	42.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	42.5 -110	+189	-250

Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +5.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +198

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $238 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+186
FPI	+4.0	+162
Sagarin	+5.0	+188
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (8 books)	+5.5	+211

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	43.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans +5.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+198	+191	+0.8%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 3

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 3

FPI

Broncos by 2.5

Sagarin

Broncos by 3

Massey

Broncos by 2

Nasty Number

Broncos by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

42.61.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.61.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3 -109	44.5 -110	-148	+120
BetUS	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -109	44.5 -106	-154	+131
DraftKings	-3 -110	43.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-3 -110	44.5 -118	-156	+132
LowVig.ag	-3 -110	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	44.5 -110	-159	+124

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +130

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-142
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-3.0	-144
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (8 books)	-3.0	-138

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+130	+142	-2.1%
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm

Under 42.5

should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 pts

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 9.5

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 7

FPI

Chargers by 9.5

Sagarin

Chargers by 10.5

Massey

Chargers by 2.5

Nasty Number

Chargers by 90.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

38.83.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

38.83.7 pts under the market

Under 42.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders +9.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +330

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 39. That's 3.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.0	-231
FPI	-9.5	-336
Sagarin	-10.5	-379
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (8 books)	-9.5	-364

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	38.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +9.5	-110	-115	+1.2%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+330	+313	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 4.5, our data says Cowboys by 4.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 4.5

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 4.5

FPI

Cowboys by 5.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 5.5

Massey

Cowboys by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

Massey

51.2on the market

Nasty Number

51.2on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-229 68¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	51 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-229 68¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	51 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-4.5 -112	51.5 -109	-220	+175
BetUS	-4.5 -105	51 -110	—	—
Caesars	-4.5 -108	51.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	51.5 -110	-198	+164
FanDuel	-4.5 -115	51.5 -115	-230	+190
LowVig.ag	-4.5 +100	51 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	51.5 -110	-222	+170

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · -220

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $301 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 7 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-175
FPI	-5.5	-194
Sagarin	-5.5	-201
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (8 books)	-4.5	-188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys -4.5	-110	+110	-4.7%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	-220	-175	-5.1%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pm

Under 47.5

should be 46.7 · getting 0.6 pts

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 5.5

FPI

Chiefs by 5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 6.5

Massey

Chiefs by 2

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

Massey

45.32 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.32 pts under the market

Under 47.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+217 30¢
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+217 30¢
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	47.5 -109	-278	+220
BetUS	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-6.5 -109	47.5 -106	-290	+230
DraftKings	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-310	+250
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	46.5 -110	-250	+205
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -105	47.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	47 -110	-275	+206

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +6.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +225

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 45. That's 2.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-198
FPI	-5.0	-185
Sagarin	-6.5	-220
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (8 books)	-6.5	-237

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	45.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +6.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+225	+209	+1.6%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

The Receipts11 bets · 6-5 · +1.5u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-1+0.78 units · +26% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+1.5 ptsbeat the close on 3 of 4 posted picks

Open0calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games

Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty0-0—nothing graded yet0 games

No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.

A Little Nasty4-640%-2.36 units10 games

Sep 8 to 14

4-6 · -2.36 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick	2-1	66.7%	+0.8 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	4-6	40.0%	-2.4 u	small sample
Not Nasty	44 games	—	—	no call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.44Sides: pts vs close, 11 bets, beat it 55%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

19 priced · 7 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

22 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 21 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 22 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 41 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 9:23pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 1.0Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson Tidetoward Alabama Crimson Tidewith the public
→ 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

11.34Points off per game at that weight

11.34The market on its own

62Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
FPI	33	9.85
SP+	33	10.83
The market	62	11.34
Sagarin	55	13.89

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	27-33	45%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 362935 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.21 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	41	2.93
LowVig.ag	114	1.42
BetOnline.ag	118	1.41
Caesars	125	1.24
DraftKings	145	1.21
Bovada	108	1.20
Fanatics	142	1.16
BetMGM	107	1.15
TOM	105	1.13
BetRivers	153	1.12
FanDuel	171	1.08
Pinnacle	107	1.07
BetUS	83	0.96
MyBookie.ag	94	0.94

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 4 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated 4 days ago
Sagarin updated 4 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
nfelo updated 2 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Sep 12

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.