Buck Nasty's
Nasty Picks of the Week
Updated Tue 3:25 pm · TOM just now · 101 priced · 1 Nasty Pick · 26 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty
Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty our side, but too thin to betNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

App State at East CarolinaApp State +7.5-110+4.4%sat 9:00 amAll 3 ratings (SP+, FPI, Massey) are on this side.

A Little Nasty

Buck's Take

Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.

Worth a look: 2 sides (Middle Tennessee +13.5, Colts +3.5). These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.

Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, the ratings in agreement, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Candidates have the agreement but not the rest, and the all-sources rule itself is still being graded (0 totals and 0 sides so far). Stale numbers are proven and switch on inside 48 hours.

Moved since the last run: Up: Middle Tennessee at Marshall (Damn Near Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Middle Tennessee); Oklahoma at Michigan (A Little Nasty · Michigan, was Not Nasty). Down: Arizona at BYU (Not Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Over); California at Syracuse (Not Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse).

Half Nasty (betting anyway): Buck likes Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13.5 (the ratings make it Marshall by 6.5) and Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5 (the ratings make it Ravens by 1).

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameThe call
New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at Seahawks
NFL tomorrow 5:20 pm
No bet
market says Seahawks by 3, our data says Seahawks by 3.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side
Market
-3.0
nfelo
-4.5
FPI
-4.0
Sagarin
-4.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-3.5
Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLPatriots ML
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢44.5 -103 49¢-182 63¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3 -11444.5 -106-170+149
Seahawks -3.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -180
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots), Ben Brown (C, Patriots) and 5 more.

FanDuel still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
The marketSeahawks by 3the number to beat
nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.5 apart
FPISeahawks by 41 apart
SagarinSeahawks by 40.9 apart
MasseySeahawks by 2.50.7 apart
We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-175
FPI-4.0-164
Sagarin-4.0-162
Massey-2.5-133
Market (12 books)-3.0-159
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.544.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -3.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-180-149-4.5%
TotalOver 44.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameThe call
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at Rams
NFL thu 10 sep, 5:35 pm · neutral
49ers to win
our data says 40 in 100 · +172 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.0
Massey
pk
We say
-3.0
Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams ML49ers ML
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢47.5 -116 52¢-200 65¢+166 36¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -11048 -111-203+176
49ers +3.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
49ers to win · +172
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: 49ers loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
A Little Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
49ers to win · +172. A price bet: 49ers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Also out: Keir Thomas II (LB, Rams), Mykel Williams (DE, 49ers), Aaron Donald (DT, Rams).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart
FPIRams by 30.6 apart
SagarinRams by 40.6 apart
Masseya pick'em3.3 apart
We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-117
FPI-3.0-142
Sagarin-4.0-165
Masseypk-102
Market (12 books)-3.5-184
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML+172+148+3.6%
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers +3.5-110-116+1.4%
TotalOver 48.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at Miami
CFB thu 10 sep, 5:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLFlorida A&M ML
Kalshi
Pinnacle-56.5 -12862.5 -104

Opened -53.5, now -56.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Miami).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)-56.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.9.

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Missouri at Kansas
GameThe call
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at Kansas
CFB fri 11 sep, 5:00 pm
Over 50.5
should be 51.5 · getting 1 pt
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 4.5. Nothing there.

Missouri sideKansas side
Market
+5.0
SP+
+3.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+5.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
+4.5
Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMissouri ML
TOM+5 -11050.5 -110+170-210
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢50.5 -107 50¢+189 33¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -10950 -112+176-213
Kansas +5.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Kansas to win · +170 at TOM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kansas to win · +170 at TOM. A price bet: Kansas loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +7.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kansas).

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMissouri by 5the number to beat
SP+Missouri by 31.8 apart
FPIMissouri by 41 apart
SagarinMissouri by 5.50.5 apart
MasseyKansas by 26.9 apart
We settle onMissouri by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+140
FPI+4.0+152
Sagarin+5.5+180
Massey-2.0-122
Market (12 books)+5.0+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineKansas Jayhawks ML+170+162+1.1%
SpreadKansas Jayhawks +5.0-110-112+0.5%
TotalOver 50.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston College
CFB fri 11 sep, 4:30 pm
Over 54.5
should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boston College by 3, we say Boston College by 2.5. Nothing there.

Rutgers sideBoston College side
Market
-3.0
SP+
+1.5
FPI
-4.5
Sagarin
pk
Massey
-2.5
We say
-2.5
Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLRutgers ML
TOM-3 -12154.5 -104-160+135
Kalshi-3.5 +109 46¢54.5 -103 49¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle-3 -11654.5 -101-164+139
Rutgers +3.0 · +101 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Rutgers to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 56. That's 2.9 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Rutgers +3.0 · +101 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -4.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +4.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $416 available; Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
The marketBoston College by 3the number to beat
SP+Rutgers by 1.54.6 apart
FPIBoston College by 4.51.5 apart
Sagarina pick'em2.9 apart
MasseyBoston College by 2.50.5 apart
We settle onBoston College by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.5+118
FPI-4.5-162
Sagarinpk-101
Massey-2.5-130
Market (12 books)-3.0-153
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.557.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +3.0+101-105+1.5%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+135+132+0.5%
TotalOver 54.5-104-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at Louisville
CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLVillanova ML
Kalshi
BetOnline.ag-36.5 -12056.5 -115

Opened -35.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Louisville).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $379 available; Under 56.5, only $353 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)-37.0-2475
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Louisville Cardinals since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 1.0.

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC State
CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)-30.5-2638
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.5

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at Virginia
CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Virginia).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.5

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 1.0.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

79 gamesBest: App State +7.5, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East Carolina
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
App State +7.5
should be App State +6.5 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +8.5
Nasty Pick

Nasty Pick. Take App State +7.5 at -110 at TOM. Market says East Carolina by 7.5, we say East Carolina by 6.5.

App State sideEast Carolina side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-1.5
FPI
-4.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-6.5
East Carolina spreadTotal (over)East Carolina MLApp State ML
TOM-7.5 -11056.5 -110-310+235
Pinnacle-7.5 -10256.5 -108-325+255
App State +7.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
The play
App State to win · +235 at TOM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: App State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same call
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 40% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · App State, now A Little Nasty · App State.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Full detail
The marketEast Carolina by 7.5the number to beat
SP+East Carolina by 1.56.2 apart
FPIEast Carolina by 4.53.2 apart
MasseyEast Carolina by 2.54.8 apart
We settle onEast Carolina by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-115
FPI-4.5-157
Sagarindoesn't rate App State
Massey-2.5-133
Market (12 books)-7.5-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.554.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAppalachian State Mountaineers +7.5-110-132+4.4%
MoneylineAppalachian State Mountaineers ML+235+200+3.5%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
Middle Tennessee +13.5
should be Middle Tennessee +11.5 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +17.5
Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.4% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side
Market
-13.5
SP+
-8.5
FPI
-4.0
Sagarin
-11.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-11.5
Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLMiddle Tennessee ML
TOM-13.5 -11557 -105-580+410
Kalshi-13.5 -112 51¢56.5 -121 53¢-564 84¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-13.5 -11057 -112-645+440
Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Middle Tennessee to win · +410 at TOM
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 57.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 41% chance of rain.

Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Middle Tennessee, now Damn Near Nasty.

Opened -17.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -458 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMarshall by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Marshall by 8.54.9 apart
FPIMarshall by 49.4 apart
SagarinMarshall by 11.51.8 apart
MasseyMarshall by 2.510.8 apart
We settle onMarshall by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-252
FPI-4.0-154
Sagarin-11.5-361
Massey-2.5-132
Market (12 books)-13.5-555
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.060.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.5-105-115+2.4%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+410+345priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.0-105-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -458 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:15 pm
San Diego State +11.5
should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5
A Little Nasty · San Diego State

A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 55.0 as well.

San Diego State sideUCLA side
Market
-11.5
SP+
-8.5
FPI
-6.0
Sagarin
-16.0
Massey
-3.0
We say
-10.0
UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-11.5 -11555 -110-450+340
Pinnacle-11.5 -11355 -108-491+356
San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
San Diego State to win · +340 at TOM
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM.
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · San Diego State.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.5.

Full detail
The marketUCLA by 11.5the number to beat
SP+UCLA by 8.53.2 apart
FPIUCLA by 65.5 apart
SagarinUCLA by 164.6 apart
MasseyUCLA by 38.6 apart
We settle onUCLA by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-244
FPI-6.0-190
Sagarin-16.0-616
Massey-3.0-135
Market (12 books)-11.5-431
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.051.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +11.5-105-119+3.1%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+340+302priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 3.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm
Over 55
should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Nothing there.

Memphis sideBoise State side
Market
-8.5
SP+
-5.5
FPI
-8.0
Sagarin
-9.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
-8.0
Boise State spreadTotal (over)Boise State MLMemphis ML
TOM-8.5 -11055 -115-345+270
Pinnacle-9 -11154.5 -116-365+280
Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Memphis to win · +270 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Memphis to win · +270 at TOM. A price bet: Memphis loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Boise State).

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -330 here against -296 consensus.

Full detail
The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat
SP+Boise State by 5.53.2 apart
FPIBoise State by 80.6 apart
SagarinBoise State by 9.50.9 apart
MasseyBoise State by 26.4 apart
We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-176
FPI-8.0-234
Sagarin-9.5-275
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-8.5-330
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+270+234+2.9%
SpreadMemphis Tigers +8.5-110-121+2.4%
TotalOver 55.0-115-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus; moneyline -330 here against -296 consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&M
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Over 50.5
should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side
Market
-14.5
SP+
-17.5
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-15.5
Massey
-3.0
We say
-15.0
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArizona State ML
TOM-14.5 -10450.5 -110
Pinnacle-14 -11150.5 -104-647+441
Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Texas A&M to win · -700 at TOM
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

A play at -13.5 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat
SP+Texas A&M by 17.52.9 apart
FPITexas A&M by 161.4 apart
SagarinTexas A&M by 15.51 apart
MasseyTexas A&M by 311.7 apart
We settle onTexas A&M by 1521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-728
FPI-16.0-603
Sagarin-15.5-571
Massey-3.0-134
Market (12 books)-14.5-489
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies -14.5-104-111+1.6%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML-700-520priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
Over 40.5
should be 41 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 40.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.

Iowa State sideIowa side
Market
-14.0
SP+
-17.0
FPI
-14.0
Sagarin
-17.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-14.5
Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLIowa State ML
TOM-14 -10640.5 -105-600+430
Pinnacle-14 -10441 +101-603+417
Iowa -14.0 · -106 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · -600 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Iowa -14.0 · -106 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 31% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

A play at -13.0 or better.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -460 consensus.

Full detail
The marketIowa by 14the number to beat
SP+Iowa by 173.1 apart
FPIIowa by 140 apart
SagarinIowa by 17.53.4 apart
MasseyIowa by 2.511.4 apart
We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-700
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-17.5-728
Massey-2.5-131
Market (12 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -14.0-106-114+1.8%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-600-493priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.5-105-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -460 consensus.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at Michigan
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Michigan to win
our data says 37 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
A Little Nasty · Michigan

A Little Nasty, Michigan. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 5. At +175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side
Market
+5.5
SP+
+7.5
FPI
+5.0
Sagarin
+1.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
+5.0
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLOklahoma ML
TOM+5.5 -11043.5 -110+175-225
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢43.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -10643 -114+184-224
Michigan +5.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · +175 at TOM
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Michigan to win · +175 at TOM. A price bet: Michigan loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Michigan.

Opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +7.0.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOklahoma by 5.5the number to beat
SP+Oklahoma by 7.51.8 apart
FPIOklahoma by 50.3 apart
SagarinOklahoma by 1.54.1 apart
MasseyMichigan by 27.6 apart
We settle onOklahoma by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+218
FPI+5.0+174
Sagarin+1.5+115
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)+5.5+183
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.543.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML+175+171+0.6%
SpreadMichigan Wolverines +5.5-110-110+0.1%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at Illinois
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Over 51
should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 5.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

Duke sideIllinois side
Market
-6.0
SP+
-3.0
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
-9.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-5.5
Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLDuke ML
TOM-6 -11051 -112-225+175
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢51.5 -112 51¢-218 67¢+181 34¢
Pinnacle-6 -10251.5 -107-219+181
Duke +6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Duke to win · +175 at TOM
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 5.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Duke +6.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 87°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.0 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.

Full detail
The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat
SP+Illinois by 32.9 apart
FPIIllinois by 32.8 apart
SagarinIllinois by 92.9 apart
MasseyIllinois by 23.8 apart
We settle onIllinois by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-139
FPI-3.0-140
Sagarin-9.0-260
Massey-2.0-126
Market (12 books)-6.0-215
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.056.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadDuke Blue Devils +6.0-110-111+0.2%
MoneylineDuke Blue Devils ML+175+177-0.3%
TotalOver 51.0-112-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Under 57.5
should be 56.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.

UCF sidePittsburgh side
Market
-7.0
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-9.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-7.0
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLUCF ML
TOM-7 -11057.5 -110-270+210
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢57.5 -112 51¢-263 71¢
Pinnacle-7 -10957 -115-285+228
UCF +7.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +210 at TOM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28.
Not Nasty
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
UCF +7.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 37% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $301 available; UCF Knights ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketPittsburgh by 7the number to beat
SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.6 apart
FPIPittsburgh by 91.9 apart
MasseyPittsburgh by 2.54.5 apart
We settle onPittsburgh by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-9.0-261
Sagarindoesn't rate UCF
Massey-2.5-130
Market (12 books)-7.0-258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.554.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +7.0-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+210+207+0.3%
TotalUnder 57.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at Army
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Over 46.5
should be 47.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3.5. Nothing there.

South Florida sideArmy side
Market
-3.5
SP+
-7.5
FPI
-2.5
Sagarin
-5.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-3.5
Army spreadTotal (over)Army MLSouth Florida ML
TOM-3.5 -11046.5 -108-171+141
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢47.5 -103 49¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10646.5 -114-176+148
Army -3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Army to win · -171 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 6.8 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls +3.5, only $49 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $419 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
The marketArmy by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Army by 7.54 apart
FPIArmy by 2.50.9 apart
SagarinArmy by 51.3 apart
MasseyArmy by 21.4 apart
We settle onArmy by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.5-223
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-5.0-166
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-3.5-164
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.553.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArmy Black Knights -3.5-110+109-4.6%
MoneylineArmy Black Knights ML-171-145-3.8%
TotalOver 46.5-108-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at Minnesota
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. Nothing there.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-2.5
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
-3.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-0.5
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMississippi State ML
TOM+1 -11255.5 -110-120
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢55.5 -112 51¢-103 49¢-112 51¢
Pinnacle+1 -11555.5 -109-109-107
Minnesota +1.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Minnesota to win · -105 at TOM
We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.
Not Nasty
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State).

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat
SP+Minnesota by 2.53.4 apart
FPIMississippi State by 43.1 apart
SagarinMinnesota by 34.1 apart
MasseyMinnesota by 23.1 apart
We settle onMinnesota by 0.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-129
FPI+4.0+154
Sagarin-3.0-139
Massey-2.0-125
Market (11 books)+1.0+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.553.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +1.0-112-109-0.7%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML-105-103-0.4%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UAB
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Over 55.5
should be 56.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10.5. Nothing there.

UL Monroe sideUAB side
Market
-10.0
SP+
-19.5
FPI
-12.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-10.5
UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLUL Monroe ML
TOM-10 -11055.5 -108-375+285
Kalshi-10.5 +105 47¢55.5 -112 51¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-10 -10356 -108-395+299
UAB -10.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UAB to win · -375 at TOM
We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $10 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -316 consensus.

Full detail
The marketUAB by 10the number to beat
SP+UAB by 19.59.4 apart
FPIUAB by 122 apart
MasseyUAB by 2.57.4 apart
We settle onUAB by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.5-951
FPI-12.0-372
Sagarindoesn't rate UL Monroe
Massey-2.5-132
Market (12 books)-10.0-359
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.558.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUAB Blazers -10.0-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineUAB Blazers ML-375-316-3.0%
TotalOver 55.5-108-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -359 here against -316 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North Texas
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:45 pm
Over 57
should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3.5, we say UNLV by 4. Nothing there.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side
Market
+3.5
SP+
+13.5
FPI
+7.0
Sagarin
+3.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
+4.0
North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLUNLV ML
TOM+3.5 -11057 -110+145-175
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢57.5 -107 50¢+159 37¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10857 -109+147-175
UNLV -3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UNLV to win · -175 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward North Texas).

Full detail
The marketUNLV by 3.5the number to beat
SP+UNLV by 13.59.8 apart
FPIUNLV by 73.3 apart
SagarinUNLV by 30.5 apart
MasseyNorth Texas by 2.55.8 apart
We settle onUNLV by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.5+435
FPI+7.0+207
Sagarin+3.0+137
Massey-2.5-127
Market (12 books)+3.5+152
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.064.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUNLV Rebels -3.5-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineUNLV Rebels ML-175-149-3.7%
TotalOver 57.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
Over 51
should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side
Market
+13.5
SP+
+17.0
FPI
+11.0
Massey
-1.5
We say
+13.0
Sam Houston spreadTotal (over)Sam Houston MLTulsa ML
TOM+13.5 -10251 -117+400-550
Kalshi+13.5 -103 49¢51.5+426 18¢-524 83¢
Pinnacle+14 -11251 -114+425-617
Sam Houston +13.5 · -102 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Sam Houston to win · +400 at TOM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 27% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -13.5, only $192 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTulsa by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Tulsa by 173.5 apart
FPITulsa by 112.5 apart
MasseySam Houston by 1.514.9 apart
We settle onTulsa by 1321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.0+691
FPI+11.0+331
Sagarindoesn't rate Sam Houston
Massey-1.5-116
Market (12 books)+13.5+418
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.053.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +13.5-102+104-1.6%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+400+418priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-117-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
Over 59.5
should be 60.4 · getting 0.9 pts · was 57.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4.5, we say Navy by 5.5. Nothing there.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side
Market
+4.5
SP+
+13.5
FPI
+12.5
Sagarin
+5.0
Massey
-1.5
We say
+5.5
Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLNavy ML
TOM+4.5 -11059.5 -110+170-200
Kalshi+4.5 -107 50¢59.5 -107 50¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10259 -112+175-211
Navy -4.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Navy to win · -200 at TOM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 68 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNavy by 4.5the number to beat
SP+Navy by 13.59.1 apart
FPINavy by 12.58 apart
SagarinNavy by 50.7 apart
MasseyFlorida Atlantic by 1.55.8 apart
We settle onNavy by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.5+451
FPI+12.5+396
Sagarin+5.0+174
Massey-1.5-115
Market (12 books)+4.5+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.563.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen -4.5-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML-200-178-2.7%
TotalOver 59.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force
CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm
Under 47.5
weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total
A Little Nasty · Under, weather

Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side
Market
+2.0
SP+
-0.5
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+2.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
+2.0
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+2 -11047.5 -108+110-130
Pinnacle+2.5 -10847.5 -105+109-128
Air Force +2.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Air Force to win · +110 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 3.5 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, weather, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.

Opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNorth Dakota State by 2the number to beat
SP+Air Force by 0.52.7 apart
FPINorth Dakota State by 41.8 apart
SagarinNorth Dakota State by 2.50.5 apart
MasseyAir Force by 23.8 apart
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-108
FPI+4.0+150
Sagarin+2.5+130
Massey-2.0-121
Market (12 books)+2.0+115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.546.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +2.0-110+105-3.5%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+110+120-2.3%
TotalUnder 47.5-112-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah
CFB sat 12 sep, 7:15 pm
Over 54.5
should be 56.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 56.5
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 12, we say Utah by 11.5. Nothing there.

Arkansas sideUtah side
Market
-12.0
SP+
-12.0
FPI
-11.0
Sagarin
-10.5
Massey
-3.0
We say
-11.5
Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLArkansas ML
TOM-12 -11054.5 -110-475+345
Kalshi-13.5 +101 48¢55.5-458 81¢+373 20¢
Pinnacle-12 -11155.5 -101-501+362
Arkansas +12.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +345 at TOM
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 7.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -11.5, now -12.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $233 available; Over 55.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Full detail
The marketUtah by 12the number to beat
SP+Utah by 120.1 apart
FPIUtah by 110.9 apart
SagarinUtah by 10.51.6 apart
MasseyUtah by 39 apart
We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-368
FPI-11.0-335
Sagarin-10.5-309
Massey-3.0-137
Market (11 books)-12.0-455
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.562.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +12.0-110-104-1.5%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+345+356priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm
No bet
market says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 9
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 9. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-0.5
FPI
-2.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-9.0
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLBuffalo ML
TOM-10.5 -10847.5 -110-400+310
Kalshi-10.5 +101 48¢47.5 -107 50¢-404 79¢
Pinnacle-10.5 -10148 -101-409+307
Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $371 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $498 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Full detail
The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat
SP+Florida International by 0.510.2 apart
FPIFlorida International by 2.57.8 apart
MasseyFlorida International by 2.58.2 apart
We settle onFlorida International by 921% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-103
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarindoesn't rate Florida International
Massey-2.5-127
Market (12 books)-10.5-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.545.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.5-112-130+3.7%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+310+257priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.7.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYU
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Arizona +7.5
should be Arizona +7.5 · was +7
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Arizona sideBYU side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-8.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-7.5
BYU spreadTotal (over)BYU MLArizona ML
TOM-7.5 -11648 -108-295+235
Kalshi-7.5 -112 51¢46.5 -131 55¢-306 74¢
Pinnacle-7.5 -10547.5 -113-303+240
Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Arizona to win · +235 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.8 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM.
the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +8.5. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats ML, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat
SP+BYU by 6.51.1 apart
FPIBYU by 9.52 apart
SagarinBYU by 80.7 apart
MasseyBYU by 2.55.1 apart
We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-9.5-278
Sagarin-8.0-240
Massey-2.5-128
Market (12 books)-7.5-282
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.051.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArizona Wildcats +7.5-104-118+3.2%
MoneylineArizona Wildcats ML+235+222+1.2%
TotalOver 48.0-108-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 3.8.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at Kentucky
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Kentucky +10
should be Kentucky +10 · was +8.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Alabama sideKentucky side
Market
+10.0
SP+
+9.5
FPI
+14.0
Sagarin
+8.5
Massey
-1.5
We say
+10.0
Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLAlabama ML
TOM+10 -10549.5 -110+300-390
Kalshi+10.5 -116 52¢49.5 -107 50¢+313 23¢-404 79¢
Pinnacle+10.5 -11149 -111+316-423
Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Kentucky to win · +300 at TOM
We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21.
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +11.5. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketAlabama by 10the number to beat
SP+Alabama by 9.50.7 apart
FPIAlabama by 143.8 apart
SagarinAlabama by 8.51.7 apart
MasseyKentucky by 1.511.4 apart
We settle onAlabama by 1021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+273
FPI+14.0+460
Sagarin+8.5+245
Massey-1.5-116
Market (12 books)+10.0+314
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.546.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +10.0-105-109+1.0%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+300+287+0.8%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
South Alabama to win
our data says 27 in 100 · +285 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

South Alabama sideTulane side
Market
-9.5
SP+
-6.0
FPI
-11.5
Sagarin
-10.5
Massey
-3.0
We say
-9.5
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-9.5 -11249.5 -110-375+285
Kalshi-9.5 -112 51¢50.5 +105 47¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9.5 -10349.5 -109-373+285
South Alabama +9.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM. A price bet: South Alabama loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -11.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -306 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTulane by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Tulane by 63.3 apart
FPITulane by 11.51.8 apart
SagarinTulane by 10.51 apart
MasseyTulane by 36.7 apart
We settle onTulane by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.0-193
FPI-11.5-342
Sagarin-10.5-311
Massey-3.0-134
Market (12 books)-9.5-359
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.550.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+285+271+1.0%
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +9.5-108-108+0.0%
TotalOver 49.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -306 consensus.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas State
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Over 48.5
should be 49.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.

Washington State sideKansas State side
Market
-19.0
SP+
-18.5
FPI
-15.5
Sagarin
-17.5
Massey
-3.0
We say
-18.0
Kansas State spreadTotal (over)Kansas State MLWashington State ML
TOM-19 -11048.5 -108
Pinnacle-18.5 -11148.5 -108-1074+636
Washington State +19.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Washington State to win · +686 at TOM
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 41% chance of rain.

Opened -16.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketKansas State by 19the number to beat
SP+Kansas State by 18.50.4 apart
FPIKansas State by 15.53.7 apart
SagarinKansas State by 17.51.6 apart
MasseyKansas State by 316.2 apart
We settle onKansas State by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.5-853
FPI-15.5-558
Sagarin-17.5-724
Massey-3.0-134
Market (12 books)-19.0-698
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +19.0-110+114-5.8%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+686+809priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-108-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.7 consensus.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma State
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Under 57
should be 55.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 60.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side
Market
+22.5
SP+
+20.5
FPI
+22.0
Sagarin
+23.5
Massey
pk
We say
+22.0
Oklahoma State spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma State MLOregon ML
TOM+22.5 -10457 -116
Pinnacle+22.5 -10957.5 -108+949-1957
Oklahoma State +22.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oklahoma State to win · +1052 at TOM
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F, 37% chance of rain.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat
SP+Oregon by 20.51.9 apart
FPIOregon by 220.4 apart
SagarinOregon by 23.51.1 apart
Masseya pick'em22.7 apart
We settle onOregon by 2230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.5+1122
FPI+22.0+1383
Sagarin+23.5+1721
Masseypk-102
Market (12 books)+22.5+1036
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.053.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOklahoma State Cowboys +22.5-104+131-7.7%
MoneylineOklahoma State Cowboys ML+1052+1397priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-104-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia Tech
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
No bet
market says Virginia Tech by 19.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 19.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.5.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side
Market
-19.5
SP+
-21.0
FPI
-17.5
Sagarin
-21.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-19.5
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLOld Dominion ML
TOM-19.5 -10850.5 -105
Kalshi-20.5 +109 46¢50.5 -107 50¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-19.5 -10550.5 -103-1150+667
Old Dominion +19.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Old Dominion to win · +709 at TOM
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F, 34% chance of rain.

Opened -14.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 4.9 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketVirginia Tech by 19.5the number to beat
SP+Virginia Tech by 211.3 apart
FPIVirginia Tech by 17.51.9 apart
SagarinVirginia Tech by 211.7 apart
MasseyVirginia Tech by 2.517 apart
We settle onVirginia Tech by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-21.0-1153
FPI-17.5-750
Sagarin-21.0-1217
Massey-2.5-131
Market (12 books)-19.5-728
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.549.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOld Dominion Monarchs +19.5-112+128-8.9%
MoneylineOld Dominion Monarchs ML+709+952priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.5-115-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at Temple
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
Over 49.5
should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 pts
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.

Penn State sideTemple side
Market
+24.0
SP+
+22.5
FPI
+22.0
Sagarin
+26.0
Massey
-0.5
We say
+23.5
Temple spreadTotal (over)Temple MLPenn State ML
TOM+24 -11049.5 -110
Pinnacle+23.5 -10249.5 -114+1071-2374
Temple +24.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Temple to win · +1300 at TOM
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketPenn State by 24the number to beat
SP+Penn State by 22.51.5 apart
FPIPenn State by 221.8 apart
SagarinPenn State by 261.8 apart
MasseyTemple by 0.524.4 apart
We settle onPenn State by 23.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++22.5+1469
FPI+22.0+1411
Sagarin+26.0+2418
Massey-0.5-105
Market (12 books)+24.0+1206
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.555.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +24.0-110+137-10.3%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+1300+1740priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.7 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at Purdue
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
No bet
market says Wake Forest by 3, our data says Wake Forest by 2
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 3, we say Wake Forest by 2. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side
Market
+3.0
SP+
-2.0
FPI
+3.5
Sagarin
pk
Massey
-2.0
We say
+2.0
Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLWake Forest ML
TOM+3 -11149 -116+125-150
Kalshi+2.549.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-161 60¢
Pinnacle+3 -11250 -107+129-152
Purdue +3.0 · -111 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Purdue to win · +125 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -116 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.

Opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $4 available; Under 49.5, only $308 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketWake Forest by 3the number to beat
SP+Purdue by 24.8 apart
FPIWake Forest by 3.50.3 apart
Sagarina pick'em2.8 apart
MasseyPurdue by 24.9 apart
We settle onWake Forest by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.0-121
FPI+3.5+141
Sagarinpk+102
Massey-2.0-122
Market (12 books)+3.0+131
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +3.0-111-110-0.1%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+125+126-0.2%
TotalOver 49.0-116-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at Georgia
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:45 am
No bet
market says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 41
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side
Market
-41.0
SP+
-44.0
FPI
-38.5
Sagarin
-42.0
Massey
-4.5
We say
-41.0
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-41 -11055.5 -112
Kalshi55.5
Pinnacle-40.5 -11755.5 -109
Western Kentucky +41.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Over 55.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F, 46% chance of rain.

Opened -35.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 5.1 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $209 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketGeorgia by 41the number to beat
SP+Georgia by 443 apart
FPIGeorgia by 38.52.3 apart
SagarinGeorgia by 421 apart
MasseyGeorgia by 4.536.7 apart
We settle onGeorgia by 4121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-44.0-63883
FPI-38.5-22538
Sagarin-42.0-42502
Massey-4.5-157
Market (11 books)-41.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.556.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0-110-164+9.7%
TotalOver 55.5-112-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.1 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at Syracuse
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No bet
market says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

California sideSyracuse side
Market
-3.5
SP+
-8.5
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-1.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-4.0
Syracuse spreadTotal (over)Syracuse MLCalifornia ML
TOM-3.5 +10057 -110-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 -103 49¢56.5 -112 51¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10056 -117-169+143
Syracuse -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Syracuse to win · -165 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse, now Not Nasty.

Opened +2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Full detail
The marketSyracuse by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Syracuse by 8.54.8 apart
FPISyracuse by 8.55.2 apart
SagarinSyracuse by 1.52.2 apart
MasseySyracuse by 2.51.1 apart
We settle onSyracuse by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-244
FPI-8.5-256
Sagarin-1.5-114
Massey-2.5-129
Market (12 books)-3.5-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.055.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSyracuse Orange -3.5+100+105-1.3%
MoneylineSyracuse Orange ML-165-151-2.1%
TotalUnder 57.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan State
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No bet
market says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side
Market
-17.0
SP+
-19.0
FPI
-19.0
Sagarin
-21.0
Massey
-3.5
We say
-17.5
Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-17 -11349.5 -110
Pinnacle-17 -10649.5 -104-957+587
Michigan State -17.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · -924 at TOM
We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketMichigan State by 17the number to beat
SP+Michigan State by 191.8 apart
FPIMichigan State by 192 apart
SagarinMichigan State by 214.2 apart
MasseyMichigan State by 3.513.5 apart
We settle onMichigan State by 17.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-877
FPI-19.0-902
Sagarin-21.0-1227
Massey-3.5-144
Market (12 books)-17.0-627
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.549.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans -17.0-113-127+2.9%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML-924-728priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConn
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No bet
market says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 12.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 12.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Maryland sideUConn side
Market
+13.5
SP+
+13.0
FPI
+8.0
Sagarin
+13.5
Massey
-1.5
We say
+12.5
UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLMaryland ML
TOM+13.5 -11552.5 -110+355-485
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢52.5 -103 49¢+398 19¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -11052 -117+349-480
UConn +13.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +355 at TOM
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UConn).

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Maryland by 130.3 apart
FPIMaryland by 85.3 apart
SagarinMaryland by 13.50.1 apart
MasseyUConn by 1.515.1 apart
We settle onMaryland by 12.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+430
FPI+8.0+241
Sagarin+13.5+443
Massey-1.5-119
Market (12 books)+13.5+371
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +13.5-115-103-2.8%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+355+389priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre Dame
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 52.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.

Rice sideNotre Dame side
Market
-44.5
SP+
-39.5
FPI
-41.5
Sagarin
-47.5
Massey
-4.5
We say
-43.5
Notre Dame spreadTotal (over)Notre Dame MLRice ML
TOM-44.5 -11055.5 -116
Kalshi55.5
Pinnacle-44.5 -11856 -107
Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 64 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 55.5 · -104 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 55.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat
SP+Notre Dame by 39.55.1 apart
FPINotre Dame by 41.53.2 apart
SagarinNotre Dame by 47.53.1 apart
MasseyNotre Dame by 4.539.9 apart
We settle onNotre Dame by 43.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-39.5-25564
FPI-41.5-37206
Sagarin-47.5-136447
Massey-4.5-163
Market (11 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.550.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +44.5-110-179+11.7%
TotalUnder 55.5-104-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas State
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No bet
market says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1. Less than a point isn't an edge.

UTSA sideTexas State side
Market
-1.5
SP+
+8.5
FPI
+2.0
Sagarin
+1.5
Massey
-1.5
We say
-1.0
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLUTSA ML
TOM-1.5 -11066.5 -115-125+105
Pinnacle-1.5 -10766.5 -113-117+101
UTSA +1.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UTSA to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 66.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas State by 1.5the number to beat
SP+UTSA by 8.510 apart
FPIUTSA by 23.4 apart
SagarinUTSA by 1.53.2 apart
MasseyTexas State by 1.50.2 apart
We settle onTexas State by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.5+249
FPI+2.0+123
Sagarin+1.5+119
Massey-1.5-119
Market (12 books)-1.5-120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points66.571.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners +1.5-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML+105+109-0.9%
TotalOver 66.5-115-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at Washington
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
Under 56
should be 54.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.

Utah State sideWashington side
Market
-26.5
SP+
-25.5
FPI
-22.0
Sagarin
-34.5
Massey
-4.0
We say
-25.5
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLUtah State ML
TOM-26.5 -11056 -105
Pinnacle-26.5 -10855.5 -109+1431
Utah State +26.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +1600 at TOM
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 41% chance of rain.

Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketWashington by 26.5the number to beat
SP+Washington by 25.50.8 apart
FPIWashington by 224.3 apart
SagarinWashington by 34.58 apart
MasseyWashington by 422.5 apart
We settle onWashington by 25.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.5-2370
FPI-22.0-1398
Sagarin-34.5-10280
Massey-4.0-153
Market (12 books)-26.5-1537
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.051.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +26.5-110+141-10.8%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1600+2381priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-115-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at Vanderbilt
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:15 pm
Over 54
should be 55.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side
Market
-21.0
SP+
-22.0
FPI
-14.5
Sagarin
-25.0
Massey
-4.0
We say
-20.5
Vanderbilt spreadTotal (over)Vanderbilt MLDelaware ML
TOM-21 -10554 -115
Kalshi54.5-1236 92¢+944
Pinnacle-21 -10854.5 -114-1544+814
Delaware +21.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 45 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Delaware to win · +836 at TOM
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F, 30% chance of rain.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $320 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketVanderbilt by 21the number to beat
SP+Vanderbilt by 220.9 apart
FPIVanderbilt by 14.56.5 apart
SagarinVanderbilt by 254 apart
MasseyVanderbilt by 417.2 apart
We settle onVanderbilt by 20.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.0-1348
FPI-14.5-507
Sagarin-25.0-2136
Massey-4.0-149
Market (12 books)-21.0-865
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.059.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +21.0-115+125-9.0%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+836+1093priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-115-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm
No bet
market says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side
Market
-2.5
SP+
+7.0
FPI
-2.5
Sagarin
+1.0
Massey
-2.5
We say
-2.0
Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLJacksonville State ML
TOM-2.5 -11751 -110-140+120
Pinnacle-2.5 -11450.5 -109-136+116
Jacksonville State +2.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Jacksonville State to win · +120 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 38% chance of rain.

Opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ohio).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat
SP+Jacksonville State by 79.7 apart
FPIOhio by 2.50.2 apart
SagarinJacksonville State by 13.5 apart
MasseyOhio by 2.50.1 apart
We settle onOhio by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+216
FPI-2.5-127
Sagarin+1.0+111
Massey-2.5-128
Market (12 books)-2.5-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.050.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5-103+104-1.7%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML+120+125-1.0%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
Under 51.5
should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 52.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 28.5.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side
Market
-28.5
SP+
-27.0
FPI
-28.5
Sagarin
-32.0
Massey
-4.0
We say
-28.5
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLBowling Green ML
TOM-28.5 -11551.5 -110
Kalshi51.5 -107 50¢-3476 97¢+2243
Pinnacle-29 -10652 -102
Bowling Green +28.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +2296 at TOM
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. That's 6.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 25% chance of rain.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.9 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat
SP+Nebraska by 271.4 apart
FPINebraska by 28.50.2 apart
SagarinNebraska by 323.5 apart
MasseyNebraska by 424.6 apart
We settle onNebraska by 28.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-27.0-2949
FPI-28.5-3564
Sagarin-32.0-6603
Massey-4.0-151
Market (12 books)-28.5-2071
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.545.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +28.5-105+145-10.3%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+2296+3591priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.9 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No bet
market says Kennesaw State by 9, our data says Kennesaw State by 9
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side
Market
-9.0
SP+
-17.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-8.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
-9.0
Kennesaw State spreadTotal (over)Kennesaw State MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-9 -11054.5 -115-335+260
Pinnacle-9 -11254 -116-365+280
Georgia State +9.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Georgia State to win · +260 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketKennesaw State by 9the number to beat
SP+Kennesaw State by 17.58.5 apart
FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.3 apart
SagarinKennesaw State by 8.50.6 apart
MasseyKennesaw State by 26.8 apart
We settle onKennesaw State by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-738
FPI-9.5-274
Sagarin-8.5-245
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-9.0-321
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.555.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +9.0-110-110-0.0%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+260+262-0.2%
TotalOver 54.5-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No bet
market says Tennessee by 12.5, our data says Tennessee by 11.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side
Market
+12.5
SP+
+16.0
FPI
+9.5
Sagarin
+8.5
Massey
-1.5
We say
+11.5
Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLTennessee ML
TOM+12.5 -11055 -115+350-480
Kalshi+11.5 +101 48¢55.5 -107 50¢+398 19¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -10355 -115+383-538
Georgia Tech +12.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · +350 at TOM
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech).

Full detail
The marketTennessee by 12.5the number to beat
SP+Tennessee by 163.5 apart
FPITennessee by 9.52.9 apart
SagarinTennessee by 8.54.2 apart
MasseyGeorgia Tech by 1.513.8 apart
We settle onTennessee by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++16.0+608
FPI+9.5+283
Sagarin+8.5+244
Massey-1.5-115
Market (12 books)+12.5+366
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.056.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5-110-109-0.3%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+350+349priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
Under 56.5
should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side
Market
-20.5
SP+
-13.0
FPI
-16.5
Sagarin
-25.5
Massey
-3.0
We say
-19.5
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-20.5 -11056.5 -108
Kalshi55.5 -112 51¢-1087 91¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-20.5 -11055.5 -115-1497+797
Georgia Southern +20.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +850 at TOM
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketClemson by 20.5the number to beat
SP+Clemson by 137.3 apart
FPIClemson by 16.54 apart
SagarinClemson by 25.55.2 apart
MasseyClemson by 317.3 apart
We settle onClemson by 19.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.0-430
FPI-16.5-652
Sagarin-25.5-2367
Massey-3.0-140
Market (12 books)-20.5-865
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.552.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +20.5-110+118-6.5%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+850+940priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-112-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
Under 55.5
should be 53.5 · getting 2 pts
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 36.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side
Market
-36.0
SP+
-29.5
FPI
-32.5
Sagarin
-34.0
Massey
-3.5
We say
-34.5
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-36 -11055.5 -110
Kalshi55.5
Pinnacle-35 -11656 -112
Louisiana Tech +36.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +4446 at TOM
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward LSU).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $431 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

Full detail
The marketLSU by 36the number to beat
SP+LSU by 29.56.7 apart
FPILSU by 32.53.7 apart
SagarinLSU by 341.9 apart
MasseyLSU by 3.532.3 apart
We settle onLSU by 34.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-29.5-4206
FPI-32.5-6950
Sagarin-34.0-9537
Massey-3.5-148
Market (12 books)-36.0-4536
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.548.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +36.0-110+135-9.7%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+4446+10163priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-123shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
No bet
market says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ohio State sideTexas side
Market
-1.5
SP+
+2.5
FPI
-2.5
Sagarin
+1.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-1.0
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLOhio State ML
TOM-1.5 -11749 -110-127+107
Pinnacle-1.5 -11248.5 -114-124+106
Ohio State +1.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ohio State to win · +107 at TOM
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Opened -0.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas by 1.5the number to beat
SP+Ohio State by 2.53.9 apart
FPITexas by 2.51 apart
SagarinOhio State by 12.3 apart
MasseyTexas by 20.3 apart
We settle onTexas by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+129
FPI-2.5-130
Sagarin+1.0+109
Massey-2.0-120
Market (12 books)-1.5-122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.050.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes +1.5-103+103-1.4%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML+107+113-1.4%
TotalOver 49.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
Under 53.5
should be 52.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side
Market
+26.5
SP+
+23.5
FPI
+23.5
Sagarin
+27.5
Massey
-1.0
We say
+26.0
Oregon State spreadTotal (over)Oregon State MLTexas Tech ML
TOM+26.5 -11053.5 -117
Pinnacle+27 -11153.5 -114+1333
Oregon State +26.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oregon State to win · +1500 at TOM
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +27.5, now +27.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas Tech by 26.5the number to beat
SP+Texas Tech by 23.53 apart
FPITexas Tech by 23.53.1 apart
SagarinTexas Tech by 27.50.9 apart
MasseyOregon State by 127.3 apart
We settle onTexas Tech by 2621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.5+1701
FPI+23.5+1669
Sagarin+27.5+3118
Massey-1.0-109
Market (12 books)+26.5+1466
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.548.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers +26.5-110+143-11.2%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML+1500+2428priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-103-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:45 pm
Under 57
should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side
Market
-33.0
SP+
-24.0
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-33.5
Massey
-4.0
We say
-29.0
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-33 -11057 -112
Kalshi56.5 -112 51¢-3476 97¢
Pinnacle-33.5 -11257.5 -107
Southern Miss +33.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +2728 at TOM
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -29.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketAuburn by 33the number to beat
SP+Auburn by 248.9 apart
FPIAuburn by 1617 apart
SagarinAuburn by 33.50.7 apart
MasseyAuburn by 429.2 apart
We settle onAuburn by 2930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1859
FPI-16.0-609
Sagarin-33.5-8899
Massey-4.0-149
Market (12 books)-33.0-2861
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.046.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0-110+109-4.6%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+2728+4081priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-108-138shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 4.7.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:45 pm
No bet
market says Ole Miss by 47.5, our data says Ole Miss by 45.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side
Market
-47.5
SP+
-41.5
FPI
-35.0
Sagarin
-49.0
Massey
-5.0
We say
-45.5
Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLCharlotte ML
TOM-47.5 -11061 -115
Kalshi61.5 -112 51¢
Pinnacle-47.5 -10861.5 -110
Charlotte +47.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 65 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Charlotte to win · +9950 at TOM
We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 61.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F, 22% chance of rain.

Opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOle Miss by 47.5the number to beat
SP+Ole Miss by 41.56 apart
FPIOle Miss by 3512.6 apart
SagarinOle Miss by 491.4 apart
MasseyOle Miss by 542.2 apart
We settle onOle Miss by 45.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-41.5-38550
FPI-35.0-11072
Sagarin-49.0-180764
Massey-5.0-175
Market (10 books)-47.5-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.060.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +47.5-110-189+13.0%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+9950+88130priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 61.0-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.5 consensus.

The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State
CFB sat 12 sep, 7:30 pm
No bet
market says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side
Market
-18.0
SP+
-13.5
FPI
-13.5
Sagarin
-13.0
Massey
-3.0
We say
-16.5
Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLSacramento State ML
TOM-18 -11045 -107
Pinnacle-18.5 -10345 -113-1068+634
Sacramento State +18.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +668 at TOM
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketFresno State by 18the number to beat
SP+Fresno State by 13.54.3 apart
FPIFresno State by 13.54.4 apart
SagarinFresno State by 135.1 apart
MasseyFresno State by 314.9 apart
We settle onFresno State by 16.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-457
FPI-13.5-451
Sagarin-13.0-416
Massey-3.0-139
Market (12 books)-18.0-688
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.047.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +18.0-110+102-2.8%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+668+655priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 45.0-107-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC
CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm
No bet
market says USC by 30.5, our data says USC by 29
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 30.5.

Louisiana sideUSC side
Market
-30.5
SP+
-25.5
FPI
-26.5
Massey
-4.0
We say
-29.0
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLLouisiana ML
TOM-30.5 -11459.5 -105
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢+3021
Pinnacle-31 -10760 -103
Louisiana +30.5 · -106 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana to win · +3000 at TOM
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 59.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

Full detail
The marketUSC by 30.5the number to beat
SP+USC by 25.54.9 apart
FPIUSC by 26.54.1 apart
MasseyUSC by 426.7 apart
We settle onUSC by 2930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.5-2334
FPI-26.5-2649
Sagarindoesn't rate Louisiana
Massey-4.0-149
Market (12 books)-30.5-2770
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.561.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5-106+139-9.5%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML+3000+4024priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 59.5-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North Carolina
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-35.5-4086
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.0

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at Indiana
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Howard Bison, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLHoward ML
Kalshi64.5 -116 52¢
Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)-55.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.5

Howard Bison is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent State
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wofford Terriers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -14.5, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Wofford). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-13.0-482
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-07 09:34.

Wofford Terriers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central Michigan
CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Colgate Raiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLColgate ML
Kalshi-1684 94¢

Opened -26.5, now -25.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Colgate).

Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-25.0-1278
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.0

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-07 09:34.

Colgate Raiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)
CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Holy Cross Crusaders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLHoly Cross ML
Kalshi-3476 97¢+2243

Opened -33.0, now -31.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-31.5-2453
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross Crusaders since 09-07 09:34.

Holy Cross Crusaders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West Virginia
CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover UT Martin Skyhawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -34.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward West Virginia).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-39.5-4570
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 4.0.

UT Martin Skyhawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball State
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-15.5-623
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at Akron
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Robert Morris Colonials, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLRobert Morris ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $23 available; Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-28.5-2111
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.5

Robert Morris Colonials is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut Blue at Toledo
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Central Connecticut Blue Devils, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-35.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Central Connecticut Blue Devils is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at Colorado
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Weber State Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-34.0-2475
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Weber State Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James Madison
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wagner Seahawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLWagner ML
Kalshi
Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-45.5-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

Wagner Seahawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at Massachusetts
CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Sacred Heart Pioneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLSacred Heart ML
Kalshi-1684 94¢

Opened -25.0, now -23.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Sacred Heart).

Kalshi thin: Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-23.0-1058
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sacred Heart Pioneers since 09-07 09:34; total has moved down 0.5.

Sacred Heart Pioneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at Troy
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Alabama State Hornets, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-22.5-1068
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5

Alabama State Hornets is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New Mexico
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLMercyhurst ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $14 available; Under 53.5, only $54 available; Mercyhurst Lakers ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-41.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.0

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at Wyoming
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Northern Colorado Bears, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLNorthern Colorado ML
Kalshi-2042 95¢

Kalshi thin: Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-23.5-1345
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.0

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

Northern Colorado Bears is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMU
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover UC Davis Aggies, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLUC Davis ML
Kalshi-3476 97¢

Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $56 available; Under 58.5, only $57 available; UC Davis Aggies ML, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-24.5-1248
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.5

UC Davis Aggies is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell Fighting at Florida
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Campbell Fighting Camels, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLCampbell Fighting ML
Kalshi

Opened -49.5, now -50.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Florida).

Kalshi thin: Over 66.5, only $52 available; Under 66.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-50.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points67.0

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-07 09:34; total has moved up 0.7.

Campbell Fighting Camels is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb Runnin at Liberty
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Liberty spreadTotal (over)Liberty MLGardner-Webb Runnin ML
Kalshi-2580 96¢

Opened -27.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin).

Kalshi thin: Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $447 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-26.5-1604
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.0

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-07 09:34.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Monmouth Hawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLMonmouth ML
Kalshi-2580 96¢

Opened -27.5, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Monmouth).

Kalshi thin: Monmouth Hawks ML, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-26.0-1328
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Monmouth Hawks since 09-07 09:34.

Monmouth Hawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Western Carolina Catamounts, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLWestern Carolina ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $312 available; Under 60.5, only $353 available; Western Carolina Catamounts ML, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)-36.5-3570
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5

Western Carolina Catamounts is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern Utah Thunderbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-20.5-966
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5

Southern Utah Thunderbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern University at Houston
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern University Jaguars, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLSouthern University ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $54 available; Under 59.5, only $238 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)-51.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5

Southern University Jaguars is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern Illinois
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Illinois State Redbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)+3.5+156
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.5

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Illinois State Redbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri State
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Lindenwood Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -21.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-20.5-1036
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 0.5.

Lindenwood Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Towson Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLTowson ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $56 available; Under 54.5, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-43.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Towson Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at Wisconsin
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:15 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Western Illinois Leathernecks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLWestern Illinois ML
Kalshi49.5 -116 52¢

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-36.5-3570
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5

Western Illinois Leathernecks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina
CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Fordham Rams, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLFordham ML
Kalshi-3476 97¢

Kalshi thin: Fordham Rams ML, only $482 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-31.5-2315
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5

Fordham Rams is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor
CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Prairie View A&M Panthers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLPrairie View A&M ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $57 available; Under 55.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-38.0-5589
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

Prairie View A&M Panthers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling State at TCU
CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Grambling State Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -44.5, now -43.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Grambling State).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-43.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.5

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Grambling State Tigers since 09-07 09:34.

Grambling State Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San Jose State
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-20.5-1100
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Texas Southern Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLTexas Southern ML
Kalshi

Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners ML, only $26 available; Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-27.0-1774
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0

Texas Southern Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada
CFB sat 12 sep, 7:30 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Montana State Bobcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Nevada).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)+4.0+172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.0

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-07 09:34; total has moved down 0.5.

Montana State Bobcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii Rainbow
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward New Mexico State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (12 books)-9.0-291
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-06 12:32; total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5.
GameThe call
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Colts +3.5
should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 pts
Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Ravens sideColts side
Market
+3.5
nfelo
+0.5
FPI
+2.0
Sagarin
+3.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
+3.0
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
Kalshi+3.5 -126 54¢47.5 -121 53¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11347.5 -116+157-180
Colts +3.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +152
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Not Nasty
the Over 47.5 · -110
Massey projects 50. That's 2.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Colts +3.5 · -110.

A play at +4.0 or better.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens).

Full detail
The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart
FPIRavens by 21.7 apart
SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart
MasseyColts by 25.3 apart
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+109
FPI+2.0+124
Sagarin+3.0+148
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)+3.5+163
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.549.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.5-110-119+2.0%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+152+144+1.2%
TotalOver 47.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Browns +9
should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8
A Little Nasty · Browns

A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

Browns sideJaguars side
Market
-9.0
nfelo
-5.5
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-9.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-8.0
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
Kalshi-7.5 -121 53¢40.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-9.5 +10140.5 -112-391+316
Browns +9.0 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Browns to win · +320
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 40.5 · -110
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Browns +9.0 · -110.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 3 more.

Full detail
The marketJaguars by 9the number to beat
nfeloJaguars by 5.53.8 apart
FPIJaguars by 8.50.6 apart
SagarinJaguars by 9.50.5 apart
MasseyJaguars by 2.56.7 apart
We settle onJaguars by 840% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.5-192
FPI-8.5-287
Sagarin-9.5-334
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-9.0-337
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.0-110-128+3.7%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+320+278priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers
NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm
Under 47
should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Cardinals too: market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9, but at -110 that's too thin.

Cardinals sideChargers side
Market
-10.0
nfelo
-4.0
FPI
-10.5
Sagarin
-14.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-9.0
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
Kalshi-9.5 -107 50¢47.5 -103 49¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-10.5 +11647 -111-480+376
Cardinals +10.0 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Cardinals to win · +393
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -110
Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Cardinals +10.0 · -110.

A play at +10.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers) and 2 more.

Full detail
The marketChargers by 10the number to beat
nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart
FPIChargers by 10.50.2 apart
SagarinChargers by 143.9 apart
MasseyChargers by 27.8 apart
We settle onChargers by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-165
FPI-10.5-368
Sagarin-14.0-618
Massey-2.0-131
Market (12 books)-10.0-400
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.044.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArizona Cardinals +10.0-110-123+2.9%
MoneylineArizona Cardinals ML+393+317priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants
NFL sun 13 sep, 5:20 pm
Over 48
should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 pts
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2. Nothing there.

Cowboys sideGiants side
Market
+2.5
nfelo
-1.0
FPI
+1.5
Sagarin
+2.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
+2.0
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
Kalshi+2.547.5 -116 52¢+134 41¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +11047.5 -116+140-159
Giants +2.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · +138
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110
Massey projects 50. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Giants to win · +138. A price bet: Giants loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants +2.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Matt Hennessy (C, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Full detail
The marketCowboys by 2.5the number to beat
nfeloGiants by 13.7 apart
FPICowboys by 1.51.3 apart
SagarinCowboys by 20.5 apart
MasseyGiants by 24.7 apart
We settle onCowboys by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-113
FPI+1.5+118
Sagarin+2.0+131
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+2.5+146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.050.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+138+130+1.4%
SpreadNew York Giants +2.5-110+105-3.6%
TotalOver 48.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Over 39
should be 41.2 · getting 2 pts
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.

Jets sideTitans side
Market
-1.0
nfelo
-3.0
FPI
-2.5
Sagarin
-4.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
-1.5
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
Kalshi-1.5 -107 50¢39.5 -103 49¢-121 53¢+101 48¢
Pinnacle-1 -10739 -111-117+104
Titans -1.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · -124
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.
Not Nasty
the Over 39.0 · -110
Massey projects 46. That's 6.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 39.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Titans -1.0 · -110. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans) and 1 more.

Full detail
The marketTitans by 1the number to beat
nfeloTitans by 31.9 apart
FPITitans by 2.51.7 apart
SagarinTitans by 4.53.4 apart
MasseyTitans by 21.1 apart
We settle onTitans by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-143
FPI-2.5-139
Sagarin-4.5-171
Massey-2.0-129
Market (12 books)-1.0-111
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.045.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans -1.0-110-114+1.0%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-124-121-0.6%
TotalOver 39.0-110-131shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Under 47.5
should be 46.6 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.

Bears sidePanthers side
Market
+2.5
nfelo
+1.0
FPI
+2.0
Sagarin
+2.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
+2.5
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -121 53¢+134 41¢-161 60¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +11447.5 +103+145-165
Panthers +2.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +140
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.5 · -110
Massey projects 44. That's 3.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Panthers to win · +140. A price bet: Panthers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Dallis Flowers (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail
The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat
nfeloBears by 11.9 apart
FPIBears by 20.7 apart
SagarinBears by 20.6 apart
MasseyPanthers by 24.5 apart
We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+110
FPI+2.0+127
Sagarin+2.0+129
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)+2.5+150
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.544.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+140+135+1.0%
SpreadCarolina Panthers +2.5-110+109-4.4%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Under 49.5
should be 48.8 · getting 0.8 pts
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.

Saints sideLions side
Market
-7.0
nfelo
-6.0
FPI
-7.5
Sagarin
-7.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-7.0
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+252 27¢
Pinnacle-7 -10549.5 -111-321+267
Saints +7.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Saints to win · +260
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -110
Massey projects 46. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Saints to win · +260. A price bet: Saints loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Also out: Michael Niese (G, Lions), Dillon Radunz (G, Saints), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 1 more.

Full detail
The marketLions by 7the number to beat
nfeloLions by 60.8 apart
FPILions by 7.50.5 apart
SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart
MasseyLions by 2.54.6 apart
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-214
FPI-7.5-252
Sagarin-7.5-260
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-7.0-276
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.545.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+260+236+2.0%
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +7.0-110-119+1.9%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Over 45
should be 45.8 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 45.0. Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

Bills sideTexans side
Market
+1.0
nfelo
-0.5
FPI
+0.5
Sagarin
pk
Massey
-2.0
We say
+0.5
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -121 53¢-103 49¢-116 52¢
Pinnacle+1 -10645 -106+101-114
Texans +1.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Texans to win · +100
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 45.0 · -110
Massey projects 48. That's 3.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Over 45.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.

Full detail
The marketBills by 1the number to beat
nfeloTexans by 0.51.6 apart
FPIBills by 0.50.6 apart
Sagarina pick'em1 apart
MasseyTexans by 23 apart
We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-0.5-107
FPI+0.5+105
Sagarinpk+100
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+1.0+107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.047.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans +1.0-110+102-2.8%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML+100+108-1.9%
TotalOver 45.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings
NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm
Under 46
should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.

Packers sideVikings side
Market
-1.0
nfelo
-4.5
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
+0.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
-1.0
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
Kalshi-1.5 -112 51¢46.5 -107 50¢-126 54¢+105 47¢
Pinnacle-1 -11346 -111-123+109
Packers +1.0 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · +102
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 43. That's 3.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.

Full detail
The marketVikings by 1the number to beat
nfeloVikings by 4.53.2 apart
FPIPackers by 12.2 apart
SagarinPackers by 0.51.7 apart
MasseyVikings by 20.9 apart
We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-169
FPI+1.0+114
Sagarin+0.5+106
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-1.0-113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGreen Bay Packers +1.0-110+107-4.2%
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML+102+114-2.6%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Buccaneers to win
our data says 39 in 100 · +171 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side
Market
-4.0
nfelo
-2.5
FPI
-4.0
Sagarin
-4.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-4.0
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢49.5 -116 52¢-208 66¢+166 36¢
Pinnacle-4 -10351 +104-202+175
Buccaneers +4.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · +171
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.0 · -110
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Buccaneers to win · +171. A price bet: Buccaneers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.

Full detail
The marketBengals by 4the number to beat
nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart
FPIBengals by 40.1 apart
SagarinBengals by 40.3 apart
MasseyBengals by 22 apart
We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-138
FPI-4.0-159
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-4.0-184
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+171+158+1.8%
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0-110-115+1.2%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders
NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm
Dolphins +3.5
should be Dolphins +3.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Dolphins sideRaiders side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
FPI
-3.5
Sagarin
-5.5
Massey
-2.0
We say
-3.5
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
Kalshi-3.540.5 -116 52¢-182 63¢+159 37¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10440.5 -110-188+164
Dolphins +3.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Dolphins to win · +155
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.5 · -110
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Dolphins +3.5 · -110.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail
The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart
FPIRaiders by 3.50 apart
SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart
MasseyRaiders by 21.6 apart
We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-121
FPI-3.5-153
Sagarin-5.5-202
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-3.5-169
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMiami Dolphins +3.5-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineMiami Dolphins ML+155+150+0.8%
TotalOver 40.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers
NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am
Falcons +3.5
should be Falcons +3.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-3.0
FPI
-3.5
Sagarin
-4.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-3.5
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
Kalshi-3.5 -107 50¢42.5 -103 49¢-182 63¢+159 37¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10142.5 -105-181+159
Falcons +3.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · +155
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.0 · -110
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Falcons +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +3.5, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out, already in the ratings: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.

Also out: Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Storm Norton (OT, Falcons) and 3 more.

Full detail
The marketSteelers by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloSteelers by 30.6 apart
FPISteelers by 3.50.2 apart
SagarinSteelers by 40.6 apart
MasseySteelers by 21.3 apart
We settle onSteelers by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-143
FPI-3.5-149
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-130
Market (12 books)-3.5-165
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.043.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +3.5-110-114+0.8%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+155+152+0.5%
TotalOver 42.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles
NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm
No bet
market says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5
Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Commanders sideEagles side
Market
-4.5
nfelo
-4.0
FPI
-5.5
Sagarin
-6.5
Massey
-2.5
We say
-4.5
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢44.5 -103 49¢-229 68¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-4.5 -10944.5 -102-230+198
Eagles -4.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · -230
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean.
No lean
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain.

Opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Commanders).

Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 3 more.

Full detail
The marketEagles by 4.5the number to beat
nfeloEagles by 40.7 apart
FPIEagles by 5.50.8 apart
SagarinEagles by 6.51.7 apart
MasseyEagles by 2.52.2 apart
We settle onEagles by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-162
FPI-5.5-196
Sagarin-6.5-218
Massey-2.5-135
Market (12 books)-4.5-204
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.545.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -4.5-110+109-4.4%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-230-177-5.8%
TotalOver 44.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Washington Commanders since 09-06 15:31.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs
NFL mon 14 sep, 5:15 pm
Under 43
should be 42.2 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

Broncos sideChiefs side
Market
-3.0
nfelo
-1.0
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
-3.0
Massey
-2.0
We say
-2.5
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢43.5 -107 50¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-3 +10743 -114-145+128
Broncos +3.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Broncos to win · +124
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
Massey projects 40. That's 3.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Half Nasty (betting anyway)
the Under 43.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 49% chance of rain.

QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Drew Sanders (LB, Broncos) and 1 more.

Full detail
The marketChiefs by 3the number to beat
nfeloChiefs by 11.9 apart
FPIChiefs by 30.4 apart
SagarinChiefs by 30.1 apart
MasseyChiefs by 20.8 apart
We settle onChiefs by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-111
FPI-3.0-146
Sagarin-3.0-141
Massey-2.0-127
Market (11 books)-3.0-133
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.040.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadDenver Broncos +3.0-110-106-0.8%
MoneylineDenver Broncos ML+124+138-2.5%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Sunday September 6

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostOle Miss Rebels -7.0Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels38-41-1.00

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units
LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00
WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93
LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00
WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95
LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00
WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Scoreboard

Loading scores...

How Monday 7 September went

Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.

What we saidRight-wrongRate
Ruled out by the guardrails0-0-1
Game by game
PushFlorida State SeminolesSMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoleswon by 3Ruled out by the guardrails

How it's going

3-4Record
-1.2Units
-17.3%ROI
10Open

It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.01Sides: pts vs close, 17 bets, beat it 35%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

Bet something we didn't pick? Add it here
Saved

We read 101 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 2 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.

What's changed since 3:20 pm

  • NewAppalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates is now a pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5 at -110.
  • NewBuffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers is now a pick: Buffalo Bulls +10.5 at -112.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 5.0UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineerswith the public
  • → 4.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
  • → 3.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
  • → 2.0Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass Minutementoward Sacred Heart Pioneersagainst the public
  • → 1.9Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owlstoward Florida Atlantic Owlsagainst the public
  • → 1.5UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Pantherstoward UCF Knightsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 4 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 82477 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.81 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi382.95
BetOnline.ag720.96
LowVig.ag690.92
DraftKings780.89
BetMGM690.87
FanDuel1060.86
BetRivers1020.71
MyBookie.ag670.70
BetUS690.65
Bovada700.63
TOM680.60
Caesars730.59
Pinnacle690.53
Fanatics1020.52

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • FPI NFL updated yesterday
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated today
  • Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
  • nfelo updated yesterday
Built 3:25 PM. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 18516.