Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 26 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +8, Cincinnati +7, Charlotte +14.5. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
18 more, weaker reads

Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.
Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Texas A&M +8 (Texas A&M at LSU) at 5.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.
If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Moved closer since the 10:31am build
Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 10:31am build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.
Today
14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.0.Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL 12:00pmTitans +7should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.0: all 4 ratings our side, 4.6% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Titans is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 38.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 40 +102 | +264 | -308 |
All 24 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -106 | 39 -113 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -335 |
| BetMGM | +7 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7 -106 | 39 -113 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +7 -106 | 39 -113 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +7 -109 | 39.5 -109 | +270 | -335 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -1882 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7 -105 | 39.5 -112 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +7 -110 | 39.5 -112 | +290 | -360 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 39.5 -120 | +280 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -109 | 39.5 -107 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 40 +102 | +264 | -308 |
| ReBet | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +290 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -115 | 39.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +303 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.0 | +206 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +216 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +290 | +223 | +5.3% |
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.0 | -105 | -126 | +4.6% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +303 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL 3:05pmJaguars +2.5should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -105 | -146 | +132 |
All 24 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -996 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -113 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -105 | -146 | +132 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 45 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 22% chance of rain.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +143 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | +105 | +103 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +129 | +127 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL 12:00pmUnder 47weather: 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -106 | 47 -112 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 +102 | 47 +101 | -198 | +176 |
All 24 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -106 | 47 -112 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5 -108 | 47 -107 | -220 | +175 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -106 | 46.5 -112 | -215 | +183 |
| betPARX | -5 -108 | 47 -107 | -220 | +175 |
| BetRivers | -5 -108 | 47 -107 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -109 | 46.5 -107 | -218 | +183 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -6611 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -215 | +180 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | -245 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -101 | 46.5 -109 | -215 | +183 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -216 | +180 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 +102 | 47 +101 | -198 | +176 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -212 | +184 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Vikings).
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -202 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -208 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.5 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 41.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -4.5 | -106 | +101 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -215 | -191 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -108 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-14 23:19; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL 3:25pmCardinals +3.5should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -125 | 40.5 -116 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -112 | 41.5 -101 | +172 | -193 |
All 24 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -125 | 40.5 -116 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -120 | 41 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 40.5 -116 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -104 | 40.5 -118 | +174 | -209 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -586 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 41.5 -102 | +176 | -210 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | +175 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -110 | 40.5 -116 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +176 | -210 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -112 | 41.5 -101 | +172 | -193 |
| ReBet | +4 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +173 | -206 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.8 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +251 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +294 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +162 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +180 | +158 | +3.1% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +3.5 | +100 | -109 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -116 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 19:04; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +3.9 consensus; total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL 12:00pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -101 | 41.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +106 | 42 +104 | -396 | +330 |
All 24 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -101 | 41.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -107 | 41 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 41.5 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -101 | 41.5 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -107 | 41 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 41 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 41.5 -107 | -420 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -734 | -412 | +339 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | -425 | +330 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 +100 | 41.5 -106 | -430 | +340 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -495 | +335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +107 | 41.5 -107 | -410 | +324 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +106 | 42 +104 | -396 | +330 |
| ReBet | -8 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -400 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -119 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -287 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -317 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -253 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -207 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -119 | -123 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +340 | +290 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL 3:05pmRaiders +6.5should be Raiders +6.5 at FanDuel · was +7Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 43 -116 | -304 | +261 |
All 23 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -113 | -310 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 43.5 -108 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -340 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 43 -116 | -304 | +261 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -6.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -214 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -271 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +260 | +220 | +3.5% |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-13 18:10; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL 12:00pmJets +3.5should be Jets +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 44 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 44 -106 | +141 | -156 |
All 24 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 44 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -107 | +150 | -186 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3 -102 | 44 -120 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -107 | +150 | -186 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -107 | +150 | -186 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 44 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -103 | 43.5 -115 | +142 | -170 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -6611 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 44.5 -105 | +142 | -168 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | +145 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -103 | 44 -104 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 44 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 44 -106 | +141 | -156 |
| ReBet | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +147 | -167 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.5 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward Jets, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.
DraftKings still has Jets +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Packers by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but 1.7% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +155 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +168 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +135 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | +154 | +145 | +1.4% |
| Spread | New York Jets +3.5 | -115 | -119 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 09-14 19:15; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -107 | +111 | -131 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 43.5 -105 | +120 | -132 |
All 24 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -107 | +111 | -131 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -107 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -152 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -107 | +111 | -131 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -107 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -107 | 43.5 -108 | +120 | -148 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 43.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -104 | 43.5 -110 | +120 | -141 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -2433 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +120 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -104 | +111 | -131 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +122 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 43.5 -105 | +120 | -132 |
| ReBet | +3 -125 | 43.5 -109 | +124 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Panthers).
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.
TOM: moneyline +116 here against +129 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +129 |
| Sagarin | PK | -138 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -171 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | +100 | +106 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +130 | +132 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -107 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-13 23:16.
TOM: moneyline +116 here against +129 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 7.5, our data says Ravens by 9Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 9 to Ravens by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +111 | 45.5 -103 | -381 | +319 |
All 24 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -112 | 45 -112 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -9 +100 | 45 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -105 | 45 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +101 | 44.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -112 | 45 -112 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 45 -112 | -435 | +330 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 45 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -430 | +320 |
| Caesars | -8 -109 | 45 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -475 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -102 | 45.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | -510 | +340 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +104 | 45 -104 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 +100 | 45 -110 | -391 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +111 | 45.5 -103 | -381 | +319 |
| ReBet | -8 -110 | 45 -110 | -380 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 45% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.7 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -336 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -280 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -292 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | -115 | +106 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -375 | -295 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -112 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.7 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +107 | 45.5 -104 | -146 | +132 |
All 24 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -149 | +129 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -147 | +127 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -112 | -152 | +128 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -328 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -108 | -154 | +130 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 45.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -147 | +127 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -161 | +137 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +107 | 45.5 -104 | -146 | +132 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 45.5 -110 | -147 | +130 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -134 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -134 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -160 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans -2.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -147 | -139 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 41.5 -107 | -228 | +178 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 +106 | 41.5 +100 | -216 | +191 |
All 24 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 41.5 -107 | -228 | +178 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5 -112 | 41 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -118 | 41.5 -108 | -225 | +188 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -107 | -228 | +191 |
| betPARX | -5 -112 | 41 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -5 -112 | 41 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | -220 | +185 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -230 | +190 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -235 | +194 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -6611 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -118 | 41.5 -105 | -225 | +185 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +194 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -255 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -5.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -5.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -105 | 41.5 -104 | -228 | +191 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -216 | +181 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 +106 | 41.5 +100 | -216 | +191 |
| ReBet | -5 -110 | 41 -110 | -220 | +192 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.
New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -186 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -186 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -166 |
| Market (22 books) | -5.0 | -218 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -5.0 | -105 | +108 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -228 | -187 | -4.3% |
| Total | Under 41.5 | -113 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -108 | 51 -105 | -204 | +181 |
All 24 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 51 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +177 |
| betPARX | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -4 -115 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -4 -111 | 50.5 -117 | -209 | +175 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -3439 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -225 | +185 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -106 | 50.5 -118 | -215 | +180 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -230 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -102 | 51 -107 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 +100 | 51 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -108 | 51 -105 | -204 | +181 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -210 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -161 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -177 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -172 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.0 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.0 | -107 | +111 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -205 | -165 | -5.0% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL 3:25pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 13.5, our data says 49ers by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49ers by 13 to 49ers by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +101 | -985 | +709 |
All 24 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -102 | 45 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 45 -108 | -1000 | +675 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 45 -110 | -1050 | +686 |
| betPARX | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetRivers | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -13 -115 | 45 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 -117 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -6611 | -898 | +652 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -950 | +625 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -105 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -1000 | +660 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -1400 | +725 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -109 | 45 -107 | -1050 | +686 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1133 | +753 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +101 | -985 | +709 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -952 | +640 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -431 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -730 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -642 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (22 books) | -13.5 | -904 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +13.5 | -105 | +106 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +756 | +553 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | +100 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL 7:20pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 5.5, our data says Chiefs by 6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 +103 | 46 -107 | -278 | +241 |
All 24 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
| BetMGM | — | 46 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -106 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 45.5 +105 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -6 -107 | 46 -112 | -275 | +220 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -563 | -258 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 46.5 -102 | -265 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -320 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -101 | 46.5 -102 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -6 +103 | 46 -107 | -278 | +241 |
| ReBet | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| theScore Bet | -6 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Colts).
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -243 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -216 |
| Market (22 books) | -5.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -270 | -219 | -4.3% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-14 17:34; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmNo betmarket says Rams by 6.5, our data says Rams by 7Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
All 24 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +245 |
| BetMGM | -7 -102 | 47.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +249 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -770 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -115 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -305 | +249 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +244 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | -117 | +105 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -285 | -240 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Coastal Carolina by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | -121 53¢ | -107 50¢ |
All 10 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | -121 53¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -125 | +102 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -127 | +102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -128 | -104 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (9 books) | -1.5 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty Flames +1.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames ML | +100 | +114 | -3.2% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -322 75¢ | — |
All 11 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -322 75¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -114 | 46.5 -106 | -295 | +240 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -113 | 46.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -325 | +235 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -310 | +228 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 45.5 -120 | -295 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $5 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $249 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -252 |
| FPI | -13.0 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -209 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -195 |
| Market (10 books) | -6.5 | -279 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -305 | -243 | -4.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Fri Sep 25
4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UAB, Navy at UABClemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson -1.5should be Clemson -2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says Clemson by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | — | -116 52¢ |
All 10 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | — | -116 52¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +100 | -122 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +100 | -122 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +100 | -124 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 48 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -106 | -113 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -119 | 48.5 -109 | -109 | -121 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson -1.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears ML, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +173 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (9 books) | +1.5 | +107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -1.5 | -104 | -114 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -115 | -126 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmTemple +3.5should be Temple +2 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
All 11 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +128 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 49.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -111 | +126 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +3.5, only $82 available; Temple Owls ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -105 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +179 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.0 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.5 | -120 | -130 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +130 | +124 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Indiana by 23.5, our data says Indiana by 21.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
All 10 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| betPARX | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -109 | 48 -108 | — | +1400 |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1280 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -116 | 47.5 -116 | -3030 | +850 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | -17.5 | -668 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -762 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -23.5 | -3148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +23.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1800 | +1115 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTexas A&M +8should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -8.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | +252 27¢ |
All 13 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -8.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -8 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -335 | +255 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 53.5 -108 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -106 | -315 | +250 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | -350 | +244 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -8.5, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.0 | -311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.0 | -110 | -139 | +5.8% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +310 | +203 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.5 as well.
The spread
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +108 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +157 |
| Market (4 books) | +7.0 | +257 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -105 | -132 | +5.6% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +220 | +183 | +4.1% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCharlotte +14.5should be Charlotte +12.5 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +13.5Sniff of Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 52.0 as well.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -121 53¢ | +456 17¢ | -660 86¢ |
All 7 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -121 53¢ | +456 17¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Courtside | +14.5 -108 | 52.5 +100 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -102 | +470 | -650 |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | 51.5 -114 | +420 | -699 |
Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +14.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +13.5, only $38 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -13.5, only $159 available; Under 51.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +210 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +217 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +260 |
| Market (6 books) | +14.5 | +581 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +14.5 | -110 | -136 | +5.2% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +470 | +360 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Louisiana Ragin Cajuns since 09-20 06:03.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +4.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsSniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 4, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -173 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (8 books) | -4.0 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +4.5 | -110 | -134 | +4.8% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +148 | +133 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa State +11.5should be Iowa State +10.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +12Sniff of Nasty · Iowa StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Iowa State. Market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +11.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +278 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +142 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +213 |
| Market (10 books) | +11.5 | +474 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +11.5 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | +380 | +302 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNevada +4.5should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +162 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +162 | -220 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5, only $159 available; Air Force Falcons -4.5, only $158 available; Over 49.5, only $185 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (4 books) | +4.5 | +190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +166 | +145 | +3.3% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 | -110 | -123 | +2.8% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmAkron +14.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Akron +12.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 7 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 51.5 -112 | +450 | -670 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 51.5 -112 | +450 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | +440 | -670 |
| Fanatics | +14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +550 | -820 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -116 | 50.5 -116 | +430 | -752 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +14.5, only $17 available; Akron Zips ML, only $79 available; UNLV Rebels ML, only $253 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +276 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +123 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +406 |
| Market (6 books) | +14.0 | +612 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +14.5 | -110 | -130 | +4.1% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +550 | +378 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.7.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUL Monroe +14should be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | +14 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +440 | -610 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 +100 | — | +425 | -600 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | — | +400 | -676 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $201 available; Under 58.5, only $185 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +211 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (4 books) | +13.5 | +547 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +14.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +432 | +374 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado State +13should be Colorado State +11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -322 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -306 |
| Market (7 books) | -13.0 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +13.0 | -110 | -121 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +400 | +336 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUConn +3.5should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 | — | — |
All 7 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +143 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 48.5 -114 | -202 | +150 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -3.5, only $22 available; Over 50.5, only $14 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -138 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -104 |
| Market (6 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +144 | +132 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmToledo +1.5should be Toledo -1 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5Sniff of Nasty · ToledoBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Toledo. Market says San Diego State by 1, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Toledo +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Toledo, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -146 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (9 books) | +1.0 | +104 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets +1.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -106 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -348 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -225 |
| Market (4 books) | -9.0 | -310 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +260 | +241 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +12Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 +109 46¢ | — | +490 16¢ |
All 13 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 +109 46¢ | — | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -625 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -625 | +420 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 45.5 +100 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 45.5 -102 | -675 | +490 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -665 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 48.5 -111 | -699 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -252 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -248 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -592 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +470 | +385 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 1.9.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUCF +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UCF +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -161 60¢ |
All 8 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -161 60¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -114 | 51.5 -114 | +145 | -196 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.7 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +3.5, only $52 available; UCF Knights ML, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -142 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (7 books) | +3.5 | +159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +140 | +133 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 49.5should be 48.3 · getting 1.1 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Washington State too: market says Arizona by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Washington State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (3 books) | +12.5 | +485 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +12.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +390 | +339 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 51.5should be 50.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says South Florida by 15, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 17, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The total
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -788 88¢ |
All 7 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -788 88¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| betPARX | +14.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -113 | 51.5 -112 | +425 | -715 |
| Fanatics | +16 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +550 | -800 |
| FanDuel | +15.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +610 | -950 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -114 | 51.5 -114 | +480 | -901 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $26 available; Under 51.5, only $26 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1148 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +467 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +616 |
| Market (6 books) | +15.0 | +685 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -15.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -733 | -618 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 59.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 58.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans West Virginia too: market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 1.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 3.8 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -184 |
| Market (10 books) | -1.5 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -1.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -119 | -119 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.0.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmTulsa +8should be Tulsa +7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +9.5Sniff of Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 8, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fanatics | -8 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -102 | 52.5 -110 | -315 | +250 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -114 | — | -340 | +234 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +8.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5, only $182 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5, only $130 available; Over 52.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -286 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -679 |
| Market (3 books) | -8.0 | -294 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +8.0 | -110 | -133 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +250 | +213 | +3.4% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 52.5should be 51.5 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 52.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -340 76¢ | +266 26¢ |
All 11 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -340 76¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| betPARX | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 52.5 -116 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $22 available; Under 53.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -255 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -158 |
| Market (10 books) | -9.0 | -334 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +255 | +2.2% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.4% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 55Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 53.8 · getting 1.2 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Georgia State by 9, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -296 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -164 |
| Market (6 books) | -9.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers -9.0 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | -355 | -265 | -5.4% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmUnder 45.5should be 44.3 · getting 1.2 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 45.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | — |
All 8 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 45.5 -113 | +170 | -220 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 45.5 -114 | +174 | -238 |
Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $78 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $112 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| FPI | +9.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +127 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (7 books) | +5.5 | +201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -210 | -174 | -4.2% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 58.5should be 56.8 · getting 1.5 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 58.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 1.5 to Florida by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -131 55¢ | +105 47¢ |
All 13 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -131 55¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -109 | 58.5 -109 | -129 | +104 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -113 | 57.5 -116 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 57.5 -118 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 58 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 | -135 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | 58.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| ReBet | — | 58.5 -111 | -134 | +101 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Florida).
Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $25 available; Ole Miss Rebels +2.5, only $356 available; Under 58.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -150 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +156 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.0 | -117 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +114 | +119 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 57.5should be 56 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | — |
All 10 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | +116 | -141 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +115 | -143 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | +112 | -134 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 57.5 -111 | +107 | -143 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $42 available; Under 57.5, only $74 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $61 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -115 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (9 books) | +2.5 | +124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +112 | +121 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 6.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmWestern Michigan +8.5should be Western Michigan +7 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was +7Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.6 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +264 |
| Market (9 books) | +7.5 | +288 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +8.5 | -110 | -141 | +6.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +260 | +207 | +4.8% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmMinnesota +9should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was +7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
All 7 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -116 | 45.5 -114 | -400 | +270 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | -7.0 | -207 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -350 |
| Market (6 books) | -9.0 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +320 | +237 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.8.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmSacramento State +6.5should be Sacramento State +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Sacramento State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| FPI | +11.5 | +330 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -178 |
| Market (3 books) | +6.5 | +237 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +6.5 | -104 | -111 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +202 | +189 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.5.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmOregon to winour data says 54 in 100 · -115Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oregon is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 63.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 62.5 -112 51¢ | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
All 12 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 62.5 -112 51¢ | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -110 | 63.5 -113 | +104 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 62.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -110 | 63.5 -113 | +104 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 63.5 -114 | +102 | -127 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -113 | 62.5 -108 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 62.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +1 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -114 | 62.5 -114 | -105 | -126 |
Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon to win · -115 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +1.5. The market has moved 3.4 toward Oregon, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +132 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (11 books) | +1.5 | +111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.0 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -115 | -119 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -1.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 63.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.3.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBoston College +14.5should be Boston College +14 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +15Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 | 53.5 -116 52¢ | +490 16¢ | -719 87¢ |
All 10 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 | 53.5 -116 52¢ | +490 16¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | +440 | -715 |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +508 | -646 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +490 | -675 |
| Fanatics | +15 -110 | 54 +100 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +490 | -710 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -111 | 53.5 -119 | +430 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Boston College +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 62°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Boston College, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles +14.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| FPI | +15.0 | +505 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +314 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (9 books) | +14.5 | +624 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +14.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +495 | +441 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amTennessee +5.5should be Tennessee +5.5 at DraftKings · was +4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | — | +166 36¢ | — |
All 12 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | — | +166 36¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -109 | +170 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -109 | +170 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | +170 | -215 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +172 | -210 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -111 | 57.5 -111 | +173 | -238 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns -5.5, only $27 available; Over 56.5, only $1 available; Under 56.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +213 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (11 books) | +5.5 | +197 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +5.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +172 | +172 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.0.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmKennesaw State +4.5should be Kennesaw State +4.5 at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -135 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -221 |
| Market (3 books) | -4.5 | -186 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +163 | +157 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +4.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amWake Forest +13.5should be Wake Forest +12.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 58 -113 | -625 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -623 | +487 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -650 | +470 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 58 -105 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 58.5 -109 | -575 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $17 available; Over 58.5, only $50 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $238 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -11.5 | -329 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -377 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -327 |
| Market (10 books) | -13.5 | -530 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +470 | +381 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Houston by 20, our data says Houston by 19Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 | 54.5 | — | -1684 94¢ |
All 9 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 | 54.5 | — | -1684 94¢ |
| Bally Bet | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -109 | +850 | -1667 |
| betPARX | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -109 | +850 | -1667 |
| BetRivers | +20.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | +850 | -2000 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | +953 | -1467 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +900 | -1500 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +860 | -1600 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -111 | 54.5 -119 | +630 | -1408 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $11 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $327 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +16.5 | +579 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +542 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +459 |
| Market (8 books) | +20.0 | +1337 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +20.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +855 | +801 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 25.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1644 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -957 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1043 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -4011 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1738 | +1978 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says James Madison by 4.5, our data says James Madison by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -112 | 51.5 -114 | +155 | -195 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +158 | -192 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -116 | 51.5 -114 | +157 | -214 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs +4.5, only $9 available; James Madison Dukes -4.5, only $134 available; Over 51.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +237 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +162 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +203 |
| Market (6 books) | +4.5 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -4.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -191 | -169 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Tulane by 18.5, our data says Tulane by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.
The spread
The total
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1087 91¢ | — |
All 4 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| ReBet | -18.5 -114 | — | -1099 | +570 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $325 available; Under 54.5, only $159 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -498 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -947 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -667 |
| Market (3 books) | -18.5 | -1014 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +810 | +711 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amNo betmarket says Kentucky by 20, our data says Kentucky by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -113 | 57 -108 | -1430 | +750 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -113 | 57 -108 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -114 | 57 -109 | -1430 | +750 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -120 | 56.5 -105 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1200 | +750 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 56.5 -111 | -1408 | +620 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward South Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats -20.5, only $58 available; South Alabama Jaguars +20.5, only $40 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $193 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1919 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -531 |
| Market (8 books) | -20.0 | -1206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +950 | +832 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 7.5, our data says Baylor by 9Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 9. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Baylor by 6.5 to Baylor by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | — | -306 74¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -114 | 52.5 -110 | -265 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -114 | 52.5 -110 | -265 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 52.5 -112 | -265 | +195 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -300 | +240 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | -319 | +226 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $21 available; Under 53.5, only $159 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $198 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -327 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -181 |
| Market (8 books) | -7.5 | -255 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears -7.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | -285 | -248 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Michigan by 4.5, our data says Michigan by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
All 12 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -113 | -210 | +163 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 37.5 -108 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -192 | +160 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -200 | +164 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -205 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -240 | +185 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -114 | 38.5 -109 | -244 | +178 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Iowa).
Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $86 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5, only $52 available; Under 38.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -166 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (11 books) | -4.5 | -188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -4.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -191 | -160 | -4.2% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-18 14:31.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says New Mexico by 13.5, our data says New Mexico by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 13.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +508 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +311 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +319 |
| Market (6 books) | +13.5 | +508 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +13.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +440 | +412 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 28, our data says Notre Dame by 27Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
All 11 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +1400 | — |
| Courtside | +27.5 -103 | 56.5 -113 | +2246 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +2000 | — |
| Fanatics | +28 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +2000 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -119 | 57.5 -114 | +1025 | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +1500 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2132 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +639 |
| Massey | +25.0 | +1756 |
| Market (10 books) | +28.0 | +3763 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +28.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2000 | +2432 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 57should be 55.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 37.5.
The spread
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 6 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2379 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (5 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +37.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.4.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmNo betmarket says Nebraska by 4.5, our data says Nebraska by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 5.5 to Nebraska by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Michigan State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +221 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (10 books) | +4.5 | +181 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -4.5 | -110 | +111 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -195 | -161 | -4.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.2.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmNo betmarket says Penn State by 9.5, our data says Penn State by 11Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Penn State by 11.5 to Penn State by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -527 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -399 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -410 | -308 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmNo betmarket says Virginia by 20.5, our data says Virginia by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -2000 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -125 | 54.5 -119 | -1493 | +650 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $52 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -515 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1163 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -2106 |
| Market (8 books) | -20.5 | -1361 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +20.5 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +870 | +923 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 54should be 51 · getting 3.2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
All 9 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Courtside | -42.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (8 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -136 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 11.5, our data says Alabama by 12Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | — | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
All 12 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | — | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -120 | 52.5 -115 | -525 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -120 | -475 | +350 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 51.5 -125 | -526 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Alabama).
Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $196 available; Over 53.5, only $6 available; Under 53.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -388 |
| Market (11 books) | -11.5 | -453 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -455 | -348 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.6.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says NC State by 13.5, our data says NC State by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from NC State by 12.5 to NC State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -13.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward NC State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -981 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -533 |
| Market (3 books) | -13.5 | -514 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +13.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +410 | +410 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Utah State by 2.5, our data says Utah State by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -140 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -207 |
| Market (4 books) | -2.5 | -125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +2.5 | -104 | +104 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +112 | +126 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmNo betmarket says Mississippi State by 3.5, our data says Mississippi State by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
All 10 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -108 | -165 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -108 | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -109 | -167 | +133 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 57.5 -119 | -191 | +142 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5, only $288 available; Under 58.5, only $159 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -183 |
| Massey | PK | +102 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.5 | -160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | -178 | -150 | -4.1% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.5.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmUnder 59should be 58.2 · getting 1.1 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2727 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -29.0 | -3184 |
| Market (4 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +4236 | +6468 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmNo betmarket says Oregon State by 12.5, our data says Oregon State by 12.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 79°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +11.0, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +14.0 | +432 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +238 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +329 |
| Market (3 books) | +12.5 | +485 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -12.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -550 | -373 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -133 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 13, our data says Fresno State by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -501 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -456 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -503 |
| Market (4 books) | -13.0 | -487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -550 | -425 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmNo betmarket says Georgia Tech by 5, our data says Georgia Tech by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 | — | — |
All 4 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 | — | — |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | +167 | -228 |
Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Stanford).
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +5.5, only $14 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $452 available; Over 47.5, only $491 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +223 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +201 |
| Market (3 books) | +5.0 | +189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -194 | -176 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sun Sep 27
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -161 60¢ |
All 10 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -161 60¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| Caesars | — | 40.5 +100 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 39.5 -105 | +130 | -154 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 39.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +120 | -154 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 39.5 -110 | +123 | -151 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +128 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +110 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (9 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +130 | +136 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
All 10 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +112 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -114 | 46.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +103 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +113 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (9 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 46.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +113 | +128 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -148 58¢ |
All 10 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -103 | +119 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | +115 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -120 | +116 | -142 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +127 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +125 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (9 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | -105 | +107 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +118 | +133 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -131 55¢ | +105 47¢ |
All 10 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -131 55¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| Caesars | — | 45.5 -114 | -132 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -132 | +112 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -137 | +107 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -134 | +110 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.
New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -114 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -122 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -142 |
| Market (9 books) | -2.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +2.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +110 | +132 | -4.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -524 83¢ |
All 10 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -480 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +430 | -590 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +380 | -585 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -549 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +380 | -526 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.5 | +294 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +341 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +369 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +161 |
| Market (9 books) | +8.5 | +455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 | -110 | +119 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -484 | -292 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
All 10 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| betPARX | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| Caesars | — | 43.5 -103 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -285 | +205 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -270 | +202 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -120 | -260 | +206 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -204 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -200 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (9 books) | -5.5 | -245 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -5.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -250 | -201 | -4.7% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
All 9 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | — | +112 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.
Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +153 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -171 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +148 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +192 |
| Market (8 books) | +2.5 | +124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +112 | +130 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -490 82¢ | — |
All 10 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -490 82¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -117 | -500 | +375 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -545 | +360 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -461 | +320 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -109 | -450 | +330 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).
San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -332 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -380 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -472 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -219 |
| Market (9 books) | -8.5 | -441 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -455 | -310 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmBuccaneers to winour data says 57 in 100 · -116A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -126 54¢ | — |
All 10 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -126 54¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -120 | +101 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -116 | -102 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -125 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -126 | -101 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -120 | -123 | +101 |
Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -147 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -1.0 | +120 |
| Market (9 books) | -1.5 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 | -105 | -118 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -116 | -132 | +3.1% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
All 9 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| Caesars | — | 52.5 -109 | +139 | -164 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -105 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -125 | 52.5 -110 | +135 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 52.5 -110 | +128 | -157 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.0 | +163 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +146 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +214 |
| Market (8 books) | +3.0 | +150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -159 | -149 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +134 41¢ |
All 10 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 45.5 -105 | -164 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -174 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -115 | -175 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 45 -110 | -172 | +134 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -109 | -168 | +137 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -158 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -147 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.0 | -152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -163 | -147 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmNo betmarket says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -143 57¢ |
All 10 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | +110 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -137 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +110 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +122 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (9 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +110 | +133 | -4.7% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
0-2 · -2.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-1 · +0.82 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-4 · -2.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nastiest | 0-1 | 0.0% | -1.0 u | small sample |
| Nasty Pick | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-16 | 46.7% | -3.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 127 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 10:31.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 69 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.70 | 54 |
| FPI | 9.83 | 109 |
| SP+ | 10.01 | 109 |
| The market | 10.19 | 160 |
| Sagarin | 11.75 | 150 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 55 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.02 | 54 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 55 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.08 | 69 |
The line archive, 160 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 59, and sat still 26. Our side taken at the open finished 0.47 points better than the close on average over 150 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.35, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.28, Kalshi 9.67, MyBookie.ag 9.80.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-3, +0.70 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 2.
NFL
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 42 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 8 times, against it 10, average -0.03 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 7.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 42 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 8 of 42 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 7. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Minnesota +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Over | 41 | 41 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Over | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | New York +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| App State at NC State | Appalachian State +13.5 | 13.5 | 13.7 | -0.2 | no call |
| James Madison at Old Dominion | James Madison -3 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 111 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 60 | 14.7 | 18-25 (42%) | 12-13 (48%) |
| Massey | 64 | 13.7 | 14-16 (47%) | 5-10 (33%) |
| The blend | 65 | 14.0 | 14-21 (40%) | 9-9 (50%) |
NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 3 | 6.1 | 3-0 (100%) | — |
| FPI | 1 | 18.6 | — | — |
| The blend | 3 | 6.7 | 2-0 (100%) | — |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 86 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
What's changed since 11:28am
- MovedPhiladelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans price moved from -102 to -105.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 2.0Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
- → 1.7TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knightstoward TCU Horned Frogswith the public
- → 1.7James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchstoward James Madison Dukeswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 69 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 54 | 7.70 |
| FPI | 111 | 9.85 |
| SP+ | 109 | 10.01 |
| The market | 177 | 10.28 |
| Sagarin | 167 | 11.75 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 80-85 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 819235 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.19 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 104 | 1.62 |
| LowVig.ag | 204 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 210 | 1.44 |
| DraftKings | 236 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | 287 | 1.31 |
| BetRivers | 252 | 1.26 |
| BetMGM | 200 | 1.24 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.22 |
| Caesars | 186 | 1.21 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.14 |
| BetUS | 156 | 1.14 |
| MyBookie.ag | 159 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 191 | 1.12 |
| Fanatics | 190 | 1.06 |
| ReBet | 58 | 0.56 |
| betPARX | 30 | 0.50 |
| Bally Bet | 31 | 0.48 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 39 | 0.45 |
| theScore Bet | 32 | 0.27 |
| Fliff | 26 | 0.08 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 4 days ago