Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
San Diego State at Oregon StateSan Diego State +14.5-105 at FanDuel+4.2%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Wed 7:49am. Still on the board: TOM at +100 · FanDuel at -105. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+14.5 open Sunnow +14.5Nasty Number +12.5Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa +3-105 at Fanatics+4.7%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +140. Now Iowa to win +140. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+2 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +1.5UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +10.5-102 at BetMGM+4.5%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +8.5 -110. Now UCF +10.5 -102, 2 points better. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+11 open Sunnow +10.5Nasty Number +8.5North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3-105 at DraftKings+3.4%Sat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +3 +100. Now UNLV +3 -105. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 1 pt+4 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +2Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOMNasty Pick · called Wed 3:29pmDon't chaseSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM on Wednesday; now Texas A&M +3.5 · -115 at DraftKings. The number hasn't moved but the price is 7 cents worse, from -108 to -115, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3.5, you're set. It's a play again at +3.5 -108 or better.
Buck's Take
Five Nasty Picks on the counter this week: San Diego State +14.5, Iowa +3, UCF +10.5, UNLV +3 and Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
North Carolina at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh -3.5. Every system has Pittsburgh by 9; the market has Pittsburgh by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -3.
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts, Miami (OH) -2. Every system has Miami (OH) by 6; the market has Miami (OH) by 2. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -2.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is NC State +3.5 (Wake Forest at NC State) at 3.0% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Coastal Carolina at Marshall, Coastal Carolina +4, 1.5 points our way since the open.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: San Diego State at Oregon State, San Diego State +14.5. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa to win+140 at DraftKings+5.6%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa to win +140 at DraftKingsNasty Dog · called Tue 11:53amStill a playFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Still Iowa to win · +140 at DraftKings, the number we posted on Tuesday.Damn Near Nasty
4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
4 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Giants): FanDuel +3.5 at -102 (5.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics +4 at -110 (5.5%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (5.4%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -105 (5.1%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +3.5 (the games that land on 4); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): FanDuel -122 (6.7%) · BetMGM -125 (6.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -130 (5.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (4.7%).NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +100 (3.2%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (2.7%) · FanDuel +3 at -104 (2.3%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -105 (2.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); 54¢ costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.Becomes a Nasty Pick at -3 for -105 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (Pittsburgh): FanDuel -3.5 at -105 (2.7%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -112 (1.1%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -3.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.0%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Kentucky): FanDuel +1.5 at -106 (0.9%) · Caesars +1.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +1.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +1 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.6%).8 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): TOM +4 at -110 (2.8%) · DraftKings +4 at -112 (2.3%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (1.3%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (0.4%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (NC State): FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (3.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.4%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +7.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi or Caesars +7.5 at -112 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +7.5 at -115 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (South Carolina): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +11.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.7%) · Fanatics +11 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (California): TOM +9.5 at +102 (1.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +10 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 53¢ (-0.3%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.4%).Points or price: +10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +9.5 (the games that land on 10); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (1.9%) · TOM +3.5 at -116 (1.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (0.6%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Memphis): Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (1.5%) · DraftKings -14 at -108 (1.2%) · TOM -14 at -110 (0.7%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 49¢ (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (0.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -13.5 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -118 (-0.0%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
No totals posted. One goes up when a total opens 3 or more points off the pace number, most of them on Sunday.
Moved closer since the 9:07am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:07am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Giants at Commanders Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -105 to -104. - Missouri State at Western Kentucky 6:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -1.0 to +1.5; the price from -108 to -106; the market drifted 2.2 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - South Carolina at Florida Sat 10 Oct, 11:45am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Texans at Titans Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -113 to -110. - Central Michigan at Ohio Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Ohio -2.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0. - Rice at East Carolina Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at East Carolina -9.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -10.0 to -9.5; the price from -105 to -110. - Illinois at Michigan State Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Michigan State +3.5: 1.0 points away, was out of reach.The price from -102 to +100. - Arizona at West Virginia Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Arizona -3.0: 3.8 cents short at today's line, was 5.0.The price from -119 to -113.
And 1 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Western Kentucky, Missouri State at Western KentuckyMissouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB 6:00pmWestern Kentucky +1.5should be Western Kentucky -0.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was PKA Little Nasty · Western KentuckyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Kentucky. Market says Missouri State by 1, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 0.5. At -106 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -103 | -117 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -112 | 56.5 -115 | -106 | -112 |
All 24 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -103 | -117 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Bally Bet | +0.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | -112 | -112 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -103 | -117 |
| betPARX | +0.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | -112 | -112 |
| BetRivers | -0.5 -112 | 56.5 -108 | -112 | -112 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 57 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -103 | -115 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -106 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -108 | -112 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 57 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -106 | 56.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| Fliff | -0.5 -115 | 56.5 -120 | -110 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -106 | 56.5 -108 | -103 | -117 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -102 | -120 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -112 | 56.5 -115 | -106 | -112 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +100 | — |
| ReBet | +1 -114 | 57 -111 | -105 | -116 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky +1.5 · -106 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Western Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $126 available; Missouri State Bears ML, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 56.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -129 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -185 |
| Market (20 books) | +1.0 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +104 | +100 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +1.5 | -106 | -110 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Missouri State Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 56.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB 6:30pmSouth Florida +6should be South Florida +6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 6, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -101 | -243 | +208 |
All 24 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | -230 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | -230 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 50.5 -107 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -115 | 50.5 -107 | -250 | +205 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -250 | +202 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 49.5 -125 | -255 | +200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -225 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -104 | 50.5 -106 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -260 | +204 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -101 | -243 | +208 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 +104 | 49.5 -113 | -233 | +223 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 49.5 -116 | -260 | +204 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -165 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -230 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (20 books) | -6.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +208 | +201 | +0.8% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +6.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -108 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.4.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -565 | +395 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 52.5 -118 | -565 | +430 |
All 24 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -565 | +395 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -106 | 53.5 -106 | -590 | +400 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -118 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -565 | +425 |
| betPARX | -14 -106 | 53.5 -106 | -590 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -14 -107 | 53.5 -107 | -590 | +400 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -565 | +435 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 53.5 -109 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | -595 | +415 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -565 | +425 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +420 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 52.5 -118 | -565 | +430 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 -108 | 53.5 +104 | — | +456 |
| ReBet | -14 -111 | 53 -114 | -599 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $21 available; Under 52.5, only $0 available; Under 53.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -13.0 | -435 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -410 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -374 |
| Market (20 books) | -13.5 | -541 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -107 | -101 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +456 | +436 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -108 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Liberty played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB 6:30pmArkansas State -3should be Arkansas State -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 3, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 59.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 59.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 60.5 -103 49¢ | — | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 60.5 -105 | -146 | +129 |
All 24 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 59.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 60.5 -103 49¢ | — | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 60.5 -107 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -107 | 59.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 60.5 -107 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 60.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 60.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -103 | 59.5 -109 | -145 | +124 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 60.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 60.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -124 | 60.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 60.5 -115 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -103 | 59.5 -106 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 60 -110 | -149 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 60.5 -105 | -146 | +129 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | 59.5 -104 | -144 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 60 -114 | -149 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +110 | 60.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Arkansas State).
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves ML, only $264 available; Under 59.5, only $293 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -140 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +3.0 | -113 | -102 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +125 | +137 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -108 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL 7:15pmCowboys -9should be Cowboys -8.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 9, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 10 to Cowboys by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -107 | 48.5 -110 | -505 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -430 80¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -108 | 48 -115 | -473 | +386 |
All 26 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -107 | 48.5 -110 | -505 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -430 80¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -107 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -9 -107 | 49 -110 | -505 | +380 |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -107 | 48.5 -110 | -505 | +386 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -107 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -107 | -500 | +375 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -490 | +382 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -9 -108 | 48.5 -107 | -480 | +360 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -108 | 48.5 -112 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -114 | -500 | +385 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -570 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -108 | 48.5 -107 | -505 | +386 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 49 -110 | -536 | +397 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -108 | 48 -115 | -473 | +386 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -104 | 48.5 -104 | -426 | +400 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -469 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Buccaneers).
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Drew Shelton (OT, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.0 | -339 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -438 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -212 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -146 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -483 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +390 | +348 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 10-01 08:04; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
5 gamesBest: Iowa +3.0, Nasty PickIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB tomorrow 8:00pmIowa +3Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Iowa +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -105 at Fanatics · was +1Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Bet it. Still Iowa to win · +140 at DraftKings, the number we posted on Tuesday. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 1.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 41 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -160 | +138 |
All 24 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 41 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 41.5 -107 | -162 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 41 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 41 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 41.5 -107 | -162 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 41.5 -109 | -162 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 41 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 42 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 41.5 -112 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 41.5 -108 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 46¢ +108 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -156 | +130 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -115 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -160 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 41 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -160 | +138 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -122 | 41.5 -104 | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -111 | -166 | +135 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 41.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F, 49% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 41.5, only $77 available; Iowa Hawkeyes ML, only $152 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +167 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +140 | +111 | +5.6% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.0 | -105 | -127 | +4.7% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB tomorrow 8:00pmWashington State +5.5should be Washington State +4 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4, but the market has moved 3.5 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Washington State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 43.5 -115 | -209 | +177 |
All 24 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -210 | +165 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -210 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +165 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 +100 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +164 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -125 | -215 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -210 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 44 -108 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -206 | +166 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 43.5 -115 | -209 | +177 |
| Polymarket | -5.5 | 43.5 | — | +178 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -119 | -218 | +174 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -125 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for Washington State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 3.5 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Utah State Aggies -5.5, only $91 available; Over 43.5, only $7 available; Utah State Aggies ML, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -187 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +121 |
| Market (20 books) | -5.5 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +5.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +165 | +174 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | +100 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB tomorrow 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -113 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -109 | -174 | +150 |
All 24 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -113 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 59 -113 | -180 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -178 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | -180 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -109 | -174 | +150 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 59.5 +104 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 59.5 -109 | -185 | +149 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $17 available; Over 59.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -112 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -180 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -113 | -103 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -166 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB tomorrow 8:00pmSan José State -4.5should be San José State -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from San José State by 6.5 to San José State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -5 -104 | 42.5 -109 | -194 | +166 |
All 24 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -112 | 42.5 -115 | -186 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -112 | 42.5 -115 | -186 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -113 | 42.5 -118 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -113 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -106 | 42.5 -105 | -184 | +152 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -106 | 42.5 -108 | -190 | +165 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -204 | +164 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -104 | 42.5 -109 | -194 | +166 |
| Polymarket | -4.5 | 41.5 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -114 | 42.5 -114 | -222 | +178 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -5.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Wyoming).
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +4.5, only $17 available; Under 42.5, only $25 available; Wyoming Cowboys ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -240 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -191 |
| Market (20 books) | -4.5 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -4.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -190 | -189 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB tomorrow 9:15pmBYU -10should be BYU -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 10, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -118 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -421 | +325 |
All 24 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -118 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -118 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -480 | +330 |
| BetUS | -10 -120 | 46 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -106 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -430 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 46.5 -103 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -421 | +325 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 | 45.5 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -111 | 45.5 -116 | -469 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $19 available; BYU Cougars -10.5, only $87 available; Over 45.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -13.0 | -433 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -332 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -179 |
| Market (20 books) | -10.0 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -10.5 | +100 | +103 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -375 | -354 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 4.4.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBest: San Diego State +14.5, NastiestSan Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5should be San Diego State +12.5 · getting 2 pts · -105 at FanDuelNastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: TOM at +100 · FanDuel at -105. Market says Oregon State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -115 | 54 -103 | -704 | +491 |
All 23 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -109 | 53.5 -108 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15 -109 | 53.5 -108 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15 -110 | 53.5 -109 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -780 | +530 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -780 | +505 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -116 | 53.5 -103 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -725 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -115 | 54 -103 | -704 | +491 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -104 | -614 | +525 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -699 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 60°F, 28% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: San Diego State Aztecs +16.5, only $18 available; Over 53.5, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.8 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -369 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -307 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -635 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 | +100 | -124 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +500 | +416 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -115 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.8 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUCF +10.5should be UCF +8.5 · getting 2 pts · -102 at BetMGM · was +9.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +10.5 · -102 at BetMGM, 2 points better, 8 cents better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 8.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UCF is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -118 | -442 | +339 |
All 23 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -109 | 53.5 -113 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -118 | 53.5 -118 | -425 | +325 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +344 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -109 | 53.5 -113 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -113 | 53.5 -114 | -480 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -440 | +345 |
| Bovada | -11 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -105 | 53.5 -120 | -470 | +340 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -114 | 53 -114 | -440 | +344 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 53 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -118 | -442 | +339 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -104 | 53.5 -104 | -400 | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | -481 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +10.5, only $139 available; UCF Knights ML, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -137 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -171 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.5 | -421 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +10.5 | -102 | -122 | +4.5% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +351 | +296 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -105 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3should be UNLV +2 · getting 1 pt · -105 at DraftKings · was +3.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at DraftKings, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 48.5 -101 | +135 | -156 |
All 23 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +123 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +138 | -158 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -113 | 48.5 -109 | +123 | -152 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 47.5 -113 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | +128 | -154 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 47.5 -125 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +103 | 48 -105 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +134 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 48.5 -101 | +135 | -156 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 | +144 | -150 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 48.5 -109 | +131 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $17 available; Over 47.5, only $140 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +133 | +117 | +3.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -107 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOMDon't chase · now Texas A&M +3.5 · -115 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at +3.5 -108Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM on Wednesday; now Texas A&M +3.5 · -115 at DraftKings. The number hasn't moved but the price is 7 cents worse, from -108 to -115, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3.5, you're set. It's a play again at +3.5 -108 or better. Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 48 -112 | -166 | +143 |
All 23 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 48.5 +100 | -170 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +148 |
| betPARX | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3 -120 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 48.5 -106 | -160 | +132 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 48 -108 | -168 | +148 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -175 | +142 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 48 -112 | -166 | +143 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -117 | -163 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +142 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +128 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -115 | -125 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmMiami (OH) -2should be Miami (OH) -3.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -2.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Miami (OH) -2.0: FPI is the holdout at a pick'em; the other 2 of 3 our side, 5.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -110 | +111 | -127 |
All 23 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -113 | 46.5 -112 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | — | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2 -113 | 46.5 -112 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 46.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -106 | +102 | -122 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -110 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | 47.5 -104 | +113 | -117 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 47.5 -114 | +108 | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) to win · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +205 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +422 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -122 | -161 | +6.7% |
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -112 | -139 | +5.4% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at a pick'em. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh -3.5should be Pittsburgh -5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Pittsburgh -3.5: all 3 ratings our side, 2.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 47 -107 | -183 | +157 |
All 23 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -108 | 47 -107 | -186 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4 -108 | 47 -107 | -186 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 46.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -106 | -164 | +136 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -105 | 46.5 -125 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -194 | +157 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 47 -107 | -183 | +157 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 +100 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | -194 | +157 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -164 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
A play at -3.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5, only $211 available; Over 47.5, only $17 available; Under 47.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -303 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -309 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -164 | -189 | +3.3% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 | -105 | -117 | +2.7% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +2A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 60 -102 | +149 | -174 |
All 23 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -106 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +142 | -172 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -111 | 60 -103 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +143 | -176 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 60 -102 | +149 | -174 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 +100 | +156 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -116 | 59.5 -111 | +143 | -176 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $72 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +162 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +181 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -110 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +3.5 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +140 | +129 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +162 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 4.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmCoastal Carolina +4Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Coastal Carolina +3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Coastal CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Coastal Carolina. Market says Marshall by 4, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Coastal Carolina's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 57 -130 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 58.5 -113 | -169 | +145 |
All 23 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 57 -130 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -107 | -177 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 57 -130 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -107 | -177 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 59.5 -108 | -177 | +140 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | -4 -106 | 58.5 -106 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -4 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 58.5 -104 | -166 | +138 |
| Fliff | -4.5 +100 | 58.5 -120 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | -175 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 57 -130 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -181 | +147 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 58.5 -113 | -169 | +145 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 59.5 +104 | -163 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 58.5 -114 | -185 | +143 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Coastal Carolina +4.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.5, only $495 available; Over 58.5, only $45 available; Under 58.5, only $239 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -111 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -201 |
| Market (19 books) | -4.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +145 | +138 | +1.1% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 3.1.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus; total 57.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +11.5should be South Carolina +10 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was +15A Little Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 10. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 62 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 60 -105 | -475 | +345 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -101 | 59.5 -105 | -487 | +367 |
All 23 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 60 -105 | -475 | +345 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 60 -112 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -450 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -110 | 60 -105 | -475 | +367 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 60 -112 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 60 -113 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -475 | +375 |
| Bovada | -11 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 59.5 -108 | -454 | +371 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 59.5 -110 | -470 | +360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 60.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -105 | -450 | +340 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | -475 | +345 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -106 | 60 -103 | -475 | +367 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -480 | +345 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -101 | 59.5 -105 | -487 | +367 |
| Polymarket | — | 59.5 +104 | -456 | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 59.5 -114 | -450 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -120 | 59.5 +100 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 82°F, 35% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 3.2 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $30 available; South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -283 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -278 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.5 | -455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +373 | +339 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9.5should be California +8.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +13A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8.5. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | — | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
All 23 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | — | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -112 | 54 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +292 | -370 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +10 -112 | 54 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +10 -113 | 54 -112 | +290 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9.5 +100 | 53 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +10 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -106 | +290 | -375 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -395 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 +106 | 53 -108 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +301 | -403 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -113 | 53.5 +100 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -109 | 52.5 -116 | +295 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.5 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -10.5, only $46 available; Over 53.5, only $17 available; Under 53.5, only $465 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +348 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +302 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +192 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +171 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.5 | +102 | -103 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +300 | +302 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +348 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMemphis -14should be Memphis -15 · getting 1 pt at TOMA Little Nasty · MemphisBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Memphis. Market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 6 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 +109 46¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 52.5 -105 | -592 | +429 |
All 23 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 +109 46¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14 -113 | 52.5 -108 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -650 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -113 | 52.5 -108 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 52.5 -110 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -650 | +460 |
| Fliff | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -670 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 52.5 -103 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -673 | +455 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 52.5 -105 | -592 | +429 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -113 | -525 | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 52.5 -114 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 +100 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -14.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 67°F, 88% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -20.0 | -893 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -746 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -749 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -551 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -105 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsA Little Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
All 23 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -113 | 43.5 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +420 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -14 -113 | 43.5 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 43.5 -117 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -116 | 43.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -125 | 43.5 -120 | -655 | +445 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -699 | +457 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -108 | -567 | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 43.5 -111 | -800 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -115 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $12 available; Under 44.5, only $354 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -810 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -608 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -639 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -115 | -118 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -530 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -2.5should be Ohio -3.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was -3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | — | -148 58¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 46 -111 | -146 | +127 |
All 23 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | — | -148 58¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 46.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +125 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 46.5 -115 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46 -108 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 46 -111 | -146 | +127 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -113 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 45.5 -116 | -155 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio -2.5 · -115 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $17 available; Under 46.5, only $473 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -115 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -264 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -2.5 | -115 | -133 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -161 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sagarin is the holdout at Ohio by 2. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 6, but the market has moved 3.1 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 51.5 | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +100 | 52 -104 | +211 | -255 |
All 23 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 51.5 | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +215 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -102 | 51.5 -115 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +215 | -260 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +215 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +218 | -260 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -102 | 52.5 -106 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -102 | 51.5 -118 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -104 | +220 | -275 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -125 | +210 | -270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -114 | +215 | -260 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +216 | -275 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +100 | 52 -104 | +211 | -255 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -108 | — | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -116 | +212 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -105 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +6.5, only $25 available; Over 51.5, only $2 available; Akron Zips ML, only $282 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +3.5 | +161 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +119 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +220 | +198 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -123 | +1.7% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -9.5should be East Carolina -10.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but East Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -389 | +305 |
All 23 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 47.5 -110 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 47 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 47.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -104 | -360 | +280 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -409 | +304 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -389 | +305 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -113 | 47.5 +100 | -355 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -109 | -441 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -120 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for East Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is East Carolina -9.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $16 available; Under 45.5, only $91 available; East Carolina Pirates ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -387 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -304 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -543 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -9.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -380 | -366 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmUnder 52weather: 15 mph wind and 93% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 +101 | +256 | -316 |
All 23 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 51.5 -104 | +240 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 51.5 -104 | +240 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | +240 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -120 | 52 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -106 | +230 | -285 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 51.5 -115 | +240 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +240 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -111 | 52 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 +101 | +256 | -316 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 | — | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 52.5 -111 | +238 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 73°F, 93% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $117 available; Over 51.5, only $246 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +288 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +327 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +308 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +512 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -285 | -288 | +0.2% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +288 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +10should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 10, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UTEP's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | — | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -101 | 50 +101 | +298 | -378 |
All 23 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | — | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +290 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +290 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -385 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +10 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +10 -110 | 49.5 -103 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +290 | -375 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +290 | -395 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -106 | 49.5 -103 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +301 | -403 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -101 | 50 +101 | +298 | -378 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -117 | 49.5 -104 | +300 | — |
| ReBet | +10.5 -125 | 48.5 -119 | +300 | -429 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for UTEP, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $16 available; Under 50.5, only $1 available; Nevada Wolf Pack ML, only $422 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +372 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +214 |
| Market (19 books) | +10.0 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +10.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +300 | +304 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.6 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia Tech +6.5should be Georgia Tech +6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -108 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 42.5 | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 43.5 -111 | +204 | -244 |
All 23 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -108 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 42.5 | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -106 | 44 -109 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -105 | 44 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -108 | +215 | -260 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -106 | 44 -109 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 44 -110 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -105 | 44 -110 | +218 | -260 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 44.5 -104 | +210 | -260 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -125 | +205 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -120 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -106 | +215 | -260 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +214 | -270 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 43.5 -111 | +204 | -244 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -104 | — | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +214 | -290 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 +100 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 66°F, 98% chance of rain. Total pulled down 6.2 for it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $26 available; Over 42.5, only $26 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +210 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +238 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.5 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +210 | +203 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5 | -104 | -105 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 8.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmMichigan State +2.5should be Michigan State +2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +119 | -136 |
All 23 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +114 | -137 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +104 | 48 -103 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +113 | -139 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +119 | -136 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 47.5 -113 | — | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 47.5 -119 | +111 | -141 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 77°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $16 available; Under 46.5, only $7 available; Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +157 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +115 | +120 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmHouston +2.5should be Houston +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Houston's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -101 | -133 | +115 |
All 23 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -137 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -137 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 55.5 -109 | -139 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 +100 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -102 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -138 | +115 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -101 | -133 | +115 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 55.5 -109 | -144 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 +100 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Houston, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $82 available; Over 55.5, only $493 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -201 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +115 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.1.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 61.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 61 -113 | +139 | -161 |
All 23 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 61.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -107 | 61.5 -110 | +138 | -158 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -107 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 61 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 61.5 -105 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3 +100 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 62.5 -104 | +136 | -164 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 61.5 -115 | +130 | -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -103 | 61.5 -114 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 61 -113 | +139 | -161 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 61.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -114 | +134 | -165 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 62.5 +100 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $45 available; Under 61.5, only $106 available; West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +172 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.0 | -113 | -110 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -158 | -152 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.8.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArmy -3should be Army -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3.5 to Army by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -116 | -160 | +139 |
All 23 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -175 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -175 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 47.5 -114 | -166 | +138 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -125 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -176 | +142 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -116 | -160 | +139 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 47.5 -113 | -156 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 48.5 -109 | -176 | +142 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Army side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Tulane).
Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights -3.5, only $66 available; Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $34 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $253 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -202 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -3.0 | -115 | -100 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -155 | -140 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7.5should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bowling Green by 7 to Bowling Green by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 44 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -290 73¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -295 | +241 |
All 23 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 44 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -290 73¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -107 | 44.5 -106 | -345 | +265 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -116 | 44 -105 | -305 | +249 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -107 | 44.5 -106 | -345 | +265 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 44.5 -107 | -360 | +265 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 44 -105 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -116 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | -298 | +240 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 -104 | -320 | +255 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -105 | 43.5 -125 | -325 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -112 | 44 -103 | -305 | +249 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 44 -110 | -353 | +268 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -295 | +241 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -104 | 43.5 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 43.5 -119 | -319 | +248 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Bowling Green).
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $72 available; Sacramento State Hornets ML, only $9 available; Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $75 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -305 | -297 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amIndiana -7should be Indiana -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +101 | 48.5 -103 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +258 | -320 |
All 23 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +101 | 48.5 -103 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +225 | -285 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +101 | 48.5 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | +245 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +250 | -315 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | +240 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +105 | 48.5 -101 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +250 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +258 | -320 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +255 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -120 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 75°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $222 available; Indiana Hoosiers -7.5, only $72 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 47.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +290 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +213 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +390 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -121 | -107 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -285 | -260 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -103 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 48.5 here against 47.9 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +290 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -37should be Northwestern -37.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -105 | 52.5 -109 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38 -114 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38 -114 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetUS | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -119 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -36.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fliff | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37 -106 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -105 | 52.5 -109 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -127 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $135 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available; Under 53.5, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -38.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -37.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (18 books) | -37.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -37.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -115 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -136 56¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | -365 | +289 |
All 23 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -136 56¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 48.5 -112 | -375 | +275 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 48 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 48 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 -103 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -390 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 48 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | -365 | +289 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 -104 | 47.5 -113 | — | +317 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 48.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 +100 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 60°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers ML, only $155 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -328 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -306 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +300 | +311 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20.5should be Toledo -21 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 54.5 -117 | -1362 | +799 |
All 23 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -21.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -117 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -21 -109 | 54.5 -117 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1500 | +775 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 54.5 -113 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -122 | 54.5 -122 | -2500 | +1100 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -125 | 54.5 -125 | -2120 | +950 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -113 | 55 -108 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1683 | +823 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 54.5 -117 | -1362 | +799 |
| Polymarket | -20.5 | 55.5 +100 | -1150 | — |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -1493 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -21.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Toledo).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $238 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $276 available; Toledo Rockets -20.5, only $97 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -855 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1034 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -20.5 | -117 | -107 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1600 | -1016 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNorth Texas -28.5should be North Texas -28 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
All 23 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -106 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -106 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -29.5 -113 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -120 | 58 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -28.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | — | 5¢ +1329 all-in |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 57.5 -122 | — | +2200 |
| Fliff | -28.5 -120 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -108 | -3233 | — |
| ReBet | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -119 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $104 available; Under 57.5, only $17 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1973 |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -2294 |
| Massey | -26.5 | -2083 |
| Market (19 books) | -28.5 | -4112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1878 | +2519 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmTulsa +2.5should be Tulsa +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 49 -106 | -132 | +115 |
All 23 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -130 | +106 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -130 | +106 |
| BetRivers | -2 -113 | 48.5 -113 | -130 | +106 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -134 | +112 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -120 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 49 -106 | -132 | +115 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 49.5 +104 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -138 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5, only $2 available; Over 48.5, only $18 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $421 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -212 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +116 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmStanford +38.5should be Stanford +37.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
All 22 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 -106 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -38.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Fliff | -38.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -106 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -111 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $17 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available; Under 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.2 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (18 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +38.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Stanford Cardinal ML | +5716 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.2 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -7.5should be Texas -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 8 to Texas by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 41 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 39 -108 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -113 | 39 -110 | +255 | -315 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 39 -108 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -113 | 39 -108 | +256 | -315 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +240 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 39 -110 | +258 | -315 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -119 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -114 | +265 | -335 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 38.5 -125 | +255 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +240 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -109 | 39 -106 | +256 | -315 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +261 | -342 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -113 | 39 -110 | +255 | -315 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 38.5 -113 | — | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +255 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $48 available; Texas Longhorns -7.5, only $90 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +251 here against +293 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +304 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +462 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +267 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -7.5 | -107 | -103 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -315 | -284 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 39.0 | -112 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.8 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +293 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9 -107 | 55 -111 | +287 | -362 |
All 22 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 55.5 -112 | +310 | -400 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 55.5 -112 | +310 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 55.5 -113 | +310 | -420 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 55 -115 | +285 | -370 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -108 | 55.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | +275 | -350 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | +285 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +9 -107 | 55 -111 | +287 | -362 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +100 | 55.5 +100 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 56.5 -116 | +265 | -370 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -125 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 74°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $228 available; Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +335 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +189 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +248 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -112 | -108 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +320 | +289 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +335 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -11should be Oregon -12 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -112 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +340 |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 -113 | 58.5 -115 | -463 | +352 |
All 23 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -112 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +340 |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -110 | 59 -108 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -112 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +350 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -110 | 59 -108 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +345 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -480 | +360 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 | -495 | +355 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -108 | 58.5 -107 | -450 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -11 -113 | 58.5 -115 | -463 | +352 |
| Polymarket | -11.5 | 58.5 | — | +355 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 58.5 -116 | -469 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 54°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $154 available; UCLA Bruins +11.5, only $455 available; Under 59.5, only $498 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -339 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -477 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -428 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -549 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.0 | -431 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -11.0 | -112 | -106 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -404 | -405 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -109 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +101 | 54 -115 | -177 | +152 |
All 23 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -190 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -190 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 53.5 -117 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -190 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -103 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -184 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +101 | 54 -115 | -177 | +152 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 53.5 -117 | -170 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 54.5 -116 | -188 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UConn Huskies +3.5, only $0 available; Over 54.5, only $204 available; Under 54.5, only $360 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -134 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -172 | -162 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmArkansas +13.5should be Arkansas +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
All 23 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 51.5 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +435 | -575 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +415 | -550 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 51.5 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -114 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +425 | -550 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -108 | 51.5 -106 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +390 | -530 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +395 | -565 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 51 -114 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
| Polymarket | +13.5 +100 | 51.5 -104 | — | -488 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | +380 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +360 | -500 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -13.5, only $147 available; Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $131 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +14.5 | +520 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +377 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +373 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +429 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmMaryland +34should be Maryland +33.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -110 | 57 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -110 | 57 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 57 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -33.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 57.5 -106 | — | — |
| Fliff | -34.5 -115 | 56.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -106 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $85 available; Under 57.5, only $13 available; Over 57.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -2309 |
| Massey | -32.0 | — |
| Market (18 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +34.5 | -108 | -111 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +9252 | +6263 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +8should be Kentucky +8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -112 | 52 -106 | +275 | -345 |
All 23 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 52 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +260 | -320 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9 -113 | 52 -110 | +275 | -385 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +265 | -335 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -120 | 51.5 -125 | +270 | -355 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -106 | 51.5 -106 | +260 | -320 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -112 | 52 -106 | +275 | -345 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +100 | 51.5 -108 | +285 | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 51.5 -119 | +260 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 71°F, 34% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $33 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.0 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +256 here against +314 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +299 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +193 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +192 |
| Market (19 books) | +8.0 | +256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +9.5 | -112 | -108 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +275 | +288 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -108 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.0 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus; moneyline +256 here against +314 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAir Force -7.5should be Air Force -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -108 | +265 | -329 |
All 23 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 46.5 -118 | +255 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 46 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -113 | 46 -112 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 46.5 -118 | +255 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -109 | 47.5 -104 | +255 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 46 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +265 | -330 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +255 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -120 | +250 | -330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -109 | 46 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -108 | +265 | -329 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 46.5 -119 | +255 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 5.3 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5, only $451 available; Over 47.5, only $465 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +300 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +227 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +300 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.5 | -107 | -103 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -306 | -284 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -112 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.3 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.8 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +300 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 51 -110 | -116 | +101 |
All 23 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -122 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -121 | +101 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -122 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -124 | +100 |
| BetUS | -2 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 51 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -103 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -118 | -102 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -125 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -101 | 51.5 -103 | -121 | +101 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 51 -110 | -116 | +101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 51.5 +113 | — | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | -125 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 71°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.6 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $236 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -117 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 54.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -115 | -104 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +101 | +112 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmLouisiana Tech -2.5should be Louisiana Tech -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -117 | -148 | +128 |
All 23 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 46.5 -113 | -152 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -155 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 46.5 -113 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 46.5 -114 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 47.5 -103 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -105 | -152 | +126 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -125 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -103 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -117 | -148 | +128 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -104 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -109 | -156 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $178 available; Under 48.5, only $18 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $289 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -185 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -118 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -125 | -106 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -129 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 47.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -117 | +102 |
All 23 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 55 -108 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -120 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -107 | 55 -103 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -117 | +102 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 55.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 54.5 -116 | -123 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +1.5, only $63 available; Over 55.5, only $57 available; Penn State Nittany Lions ML, only $422 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -120 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +1.5 | -109 | -100 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +105 | +111 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.9.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9should be Virginia -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -107 | 50.5 -110 | -365 | +289 |
All 23 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 50 -112 | -375 | +290 |
| BetAnything | -9 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 50 -112 | -375 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 50 -113 | -385 | +285 |
| BetUS | -9 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -370 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -375 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 50.5 -114 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -107 | 50.5 -110 | -365 | +289 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -108 | 51.5 +108 | -335 | +300 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 50.5 -114 | -391 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 +100 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange +8.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -322 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -302 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -345 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -325 | -313 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2.5should be Minnesota -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | +111 | -127 |
All 23 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -114 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +112 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 50 -108 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -113 | — | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -114 | +110 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $142 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5, only $355 available; Under 49.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +180 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -135 | -122 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -719 87¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -15 -113 | 51 -110 | -728 | +504 |
All 22 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -719 87¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -16.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -16.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -110 | 50 -120 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -16.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -16.5 -109 | 51 -114 | -835 | +540 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -16 -110 | 51 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 -103 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -16.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -800 | +540 |
| Fliff | -16.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -800 | +515 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -16.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -850 | +550 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -113 | 51 -110 | -728 | +504 |
| Polymarket | -16.5 | 51.5 +104 | -669 | +567 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -114 | 50.5 -125 | -800 | +490 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 67°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $174 available; Utah Utes -16.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -559 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -373 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -735 |
| Market (18 books) | -15.5 | -662 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +16.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +522 | +557 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -120 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -21 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 51 -102 | -1633 | +907 |
All 23 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 50 -110 | -1800 | +975 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -113 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -21 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -114 | 50.5 -109 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 49.5 -119 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -1800 | +920 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -125 | 50.5 -115 | -2000 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -109 | 50 -108 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 50 -110 | -1587 | +820 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 51 -102 | -1633 | +907 |
| Polymarket | -20.5 | 49.5 -117 | -1329 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -119 | 50.5 -111 | -1695 | +770 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $31 available; Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5, only $6 available; Under 49.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.5 | -507 |
| Sagarin | -21.5 | -1168 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -933 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1431 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 | -113 | -105 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils ML | -1700 | -990 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6.5should be Boise State -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -249 |
All 23 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -115 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +7 -115 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +7 -117 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -275 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -240 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +200 | -260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -249 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | +212 | -223 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 48.5 -114 | +200 | -265 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $277 available; Over 48.5, only $291 available; Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $344 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +184 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5 | -109 | -101 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +200 | +210 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 11
13 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Giants at Commanders, Giants +3.5.New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +3.5should be Giants +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Giants +3.5: FPI is the holdout at Commanders by 5.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 5.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 41.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 42 -110 | -200 | +173 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 41.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -113 | 42 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -116 | 41.5 -110 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -4 -113 | 42 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4 -113 | 42 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 42 -115 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4 -108 | 41.5 -115 | -190 | +158 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -115 | 41.5 -113 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 42 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -120 | 42.5 -105 | -198 | +166 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -4 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -4 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -195 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -112 | 41.5 -107 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -202 | +163 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 42 -110 | -200 | +173 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 42.5 +104 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | -198 | +166 |
| theScore Bet | -4 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants +4.5, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants), Trey Amos (CB, Commanders) and 2 more.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -106 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -217 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 41.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.5 | -104 | -129 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +165 | +137 | +4.5% |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. 49ers +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.2% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 46 -113 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 46 -111 | -173 | +152 |
All 26 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 46 -113 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 46.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 46 -113 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 46 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -115 | 46.5 -106 | -170 | +141 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -118 | 46.5 -105 | -174 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +105 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 46 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 46 -111 | -173 | +152 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 46.5 +104 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 58°F.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -3.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Marques Sigle (S, 49ers), Kyle Juszczyk (FB, 49ers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +114 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | +100 | -114 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +145 | +132 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -113 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +7.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +6.5A Little Nasty · TitansBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Titans. Market says Texans by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 38 -113 | +295 | -385 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | +313 23¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -116 | +311 | -384 |
All 26 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 38 -113 | +295 | -385 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | +313 23¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -113 | +290 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 38 -110 | +320 | -400 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 38 -110 | +310 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 38 -113 | +306 | -385 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -113 | +290 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -113 | +290 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 38 -115 | +308 | -385 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 38 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -112 | 38 -113 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 38.5 -103 | +339 | -412 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 38.5 -105 | +330 | -425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 46¢ +108 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 38 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +310 | -390 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +305 | -440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -105 | 38 -110 | +306 | -385 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -410 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -116 | +311 | -384 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 38.5 +113 | +317 | — |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 37.5, only $14 available; Houston Texans ML, only $198 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Joshua Williams (CB, Titans), Kayden McDonald (DT, Texans).
TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +308 here against +356 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +212 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +201 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +184 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +181 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +308 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 37.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +330 | +278 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 38.0 | -107 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.7 consensus; moneyline +308 here against +356 consensus.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5should be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2A Little Nasty · ChargersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Chargers. Market says Broncos by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 3. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 42 -105 | +148 | -178 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +155 | -177 |
All 25 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 42 -105 | +148 | -178 |
| Bally Bet | +3 +100 | 42 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42 -112 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -116 | 42 -105 | +156 | -178 |
| betPARX | +3 +100 | 42 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 42 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 41.5 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 41.5 -115 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -106 | +152 | -180 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -112 | 42 -102 | +156 | -178 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 +100 | 42 -110 | +147 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +155 | -177 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | — | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 41.5 -120 | +153 | -182 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos -3.5, only $95 available; Over 42.5, only $207 available; Under 42.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Pat Surtain II (CB, Broncos).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -116 | -121 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +148 | +146 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.8 consensus.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +3.5should be Ravens +2 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Ravens's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 44 -103 | -172 | +151 |
All 25 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 +101 | 43.5 -114 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 43.5 -113 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -172 | +144 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 +100 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 +100 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +105 | 43.5 -113 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -172 | +134 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 44 -103 | -172 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $421 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Durham Smythe (TE, Ravens).
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +112 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -106 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +194 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +172 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +149 | +120 | +5.2% |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | -120 | -146 | +4.8% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7.5should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.8 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -113 | 42 -107 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -363 | +296 |
All 26 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -113 | 42 -107 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -118 | 41.5 -112 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -113 | 42 -107 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -7 -118 | 41.5 -112 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -118 | 41.5 -112 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -8 -105 | 42 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 42 -108 | -380 | +295 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -102 | 41.5 -112 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -106 | 41.5 -115 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -400 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -108 | 42 -104 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -363 | +296 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 42.5 +108 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 41.5 -120 | -360 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 41.5, only $12 available; Under 42.5, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Christian Braswell (CB, Jaguars).
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 | -107 | -128 | +4.4% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +296 | +251 | +3.2% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -107 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBengals -7should be Bengals -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bengals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 42 -116 | +250 | -325 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
All 26 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 42 -116 | +250 | -325 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -108 | 42.5 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +7 -110 | 43 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 42 -116 | +263 | -325 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -108 | 42.5 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -108 | 42.5 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -325 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 43 -105 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +7 -115 | 42.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 42.5 -108 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7 -108 | 43.5 -105 | +265 | -330 |
| Fliff | +6.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -370 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -109 | 42 -114 | +263 | -325 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +104 | 42.5 -108 | — | -300 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | +260 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 89°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $17 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $429 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Kenneth Grant (DT, Dolphins).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +261 here against +297 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +366 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +369 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +361 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +176 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +261 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | -105 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -325 | -308 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -116 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus; moneyline +261 here against +297 consensus.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBears -1should be Bears -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 1, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 45.5 -113 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -119 | 46 -102 | +111 | -125 |
All 26 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 45.5 -113 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -112 | 45.5 -110 | +106 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +100 | 45.5 -113 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2 -112 | 45.5 -110 | +106 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -112 | 45.5 -110 | +106 | -129 |
| BetUS | +1 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 45.5 -112 | +112 | -132 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -119 | 46.5 -105 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 +100 | 45.5 -118 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +105 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -101 | -121 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -119 | 46 -102 | +111 | -125 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -104 | 46.5 +108 | +113 | -117 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -129 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 4.5 toward Bears).
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $12 available; Chicago Bears -1.5, only $91 available; Under 46.5, only $418 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Savion Williams (WR, Packers), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +178 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -1.5 | -107 | -107 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -125 | -119 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -113 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -121 53¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -115 | 40 -104 | -133 | +118 |
All 26 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -121 53¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 40 -107 | -130 | +105 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 40 -107 | -130 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 40 -107 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 40 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -106 | 39.5 -115 | -150 | +122 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -112 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -120 | 39.5 -115 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -110 | 39.5 -107 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -115 | 40 -104 | -133 | +118 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 40.5 +108 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -110 | 40.5 -109 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -105 | -130 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $15 available; Under 40.5, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Breece Hall (RB, Jets), Dylan Parham (G, Jets), Kiko Mauigoa (LB, Jets) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.9 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -103 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 39.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -125 | -105 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -135 | -111 | -4.8% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus; total 39.5 here against 39.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmSteelers -1should be Steelers -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 1, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 1.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Steelers by 2 to Steelers by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
All 26 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -129 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -113 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 44.5 -110 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 44.5 -112 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -104 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 44.5 -107 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -142 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 +100 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -144 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 66°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Also out: Will Mallory (TE, Colts), Jamel Dean (CB, Steelers), Derrick Harmon (DT, Steelers).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +105 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0 | -129 | -107 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -148 | -113 | -6.7% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -183 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 45 -108 | -187 | +164 |
All 26 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -183 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 45 -112 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -183 | +160 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 45 -112 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 45 -112 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -198 | +164 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -118 | -198 | +166 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -107 | 45 -107 | -183 | +160 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -198 | +159 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 45 -108 | -187 | +164 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 45.5 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -193 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $18 available; Over 45.5, only $329 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -210 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -190 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -183 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -175 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -183 | -181 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -1should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +105 | 42 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 +100 | 42 -103 | +121 | -137 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +105 | 42 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -109 | 42 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -105 | 42 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +105 | 42 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2 -109 | 42 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 42 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1 +105 | 42 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -113 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 41.5 -110 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 41.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 +100 | 42 -102 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +117 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2 +100 | 42 -103 | +121 | -137 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | 41.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -141 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 1 more.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +141 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +111 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +214 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.0 | -125 | -119 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -132 | -125 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5.5should be Lions -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 -104 | +217 | -254 |
All 26 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | +215 | -260 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -118 | 54.5 -108 | +194 | -235 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +181 | -238 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 -104 | +217 | -254 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 +100 | 54.5 +100 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +189 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +6 -110 | 55.5 +100 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $6 available; Detroit Lions ML, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.5 | +259 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +219 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +250 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +125 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.5 | +214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -5.5 | -104 | -101 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -235 | -223 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmBills +3should be Bills +3 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -117 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 54.5 -101 | -173 | +152 |
All 26 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -117 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 +102 | 54.5 -108 | -167 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -117 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3.5 +102 | 54.5 -108 | -167 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -121 | 54.5 -108 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 54 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 54.5 -112 | -170 | +142 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 54.5 -116 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 54.5 -110 | -176 | +148 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +105 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -113 | 54.5 -107 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -177 | +138 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 54.5 -101 | -173 | +152 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 54.5 +100 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | -168 | +142 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 55.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills +3.0 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Bills, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, only $118 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -114 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +148 | +138 | +1.7% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -103 | -108 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Los Angeles Rams since 10-05 08:06; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tue Oct 13
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersDelaware at Middle TennesseeCFB Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pmDelaware +1.5should be Delaware PK · getting 1.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| Fliff | — | 46.5 -125 | -120 | -105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | — | -120 | -102 |
Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $53 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $294 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +168 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +195 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -115 |
| Market (3 books) | -1.5 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +1.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | -102 | -100 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksFlorida International at Jacksonville StateCFB Tue 13 Oct, 7:00pmJacksonville State to winour data says 58 in 100 · -124Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | -122 | +102 |
| Fliff | — | 45.5 -125 | -125 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | — | -124 | +101 |
Marked: best for Jacksonville State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State to win · -124. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML, only $54 available; Florida International Panthers ML, only $2 available; Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML, only $180 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Massey | -5.5 | -192 |
| Market (3 books) | -2.0 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2.0 | -110 | -121 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -124 | -141 | +3.1% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Oct 15
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Colorado State Rams at Texas State BobcatsColorado State at Texas StateCFB Thu 15 Oct, 7:00pmTexas State -9.5should be Texas State -10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Texas State Bobcats ML, only $99 available; Colorado State Rams ML, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -369 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -382 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -310 |
| Market (2 books) | -9.5 | -331 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.5 | 73.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats -9.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats ML | -365 | -330 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 63.5 | -110 | -134 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosSeahawks at BroncosNFL Thu 15 Oct, 7:15pmSeahawks -2should be Seahawks -2 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +1.5 -106 | 42.5 -110 | +112 | -132 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +107 | -136 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +109 | -133 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Pat Surtain II (CB, Broncos).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +114 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +171 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.0 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +118 | +117 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-11-145%-2.69 units21 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 21. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty29-3248%-5.77 units61 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 44. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
1-0 · +1.08 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-11-1 | 45.0% | -2.7 u | |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 29-32 | 47.5% | -5.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 233 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-08 09:06.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 200 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.09 | 291 |
| SP+ | 11.23 | 227 |
| FPI | 11.25 | 228 |
| Massey | 11.30 | 171 |
| Sagarin | 12.40 | 281 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 174 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 171 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 173 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 200 |
The line archive, 291 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 101, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.67 points better than the close on average over 276 games. The close misses the final by 11.04, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 12.53, Pinnacle's close by 11.01. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.79, MyBookie.ag 10.92, Caesars 10.99.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-3, -1.15 units, -1.1 pts vs the close on 5.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 47 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 9.44 | 64 |
| Massey | 9.48 | 47 |
| FPI | 9.79 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 9.81 | 64 |
| nfelo | 9.93 | 63 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 47 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
The line archive, 64 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.65 points better than the close on average over 59 games. The close misses the final by 9.66, the open by 9.71, our raw ratings number by 9.91, Pinnacle's close by 9.67. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.65, Polymarket 8.60, Bally Bet 9.15.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
29 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Under | 52.1 | 52.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Over | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona +5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 242 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 179 | 13.5 | 57-66 (46%) | 36-36 (50%) |
| Massey | 181 | 13.0 | 39-45 (46%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 184 | 13.0 | 41-47 (47%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 54 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 50 | 11.1 | 13-18 (42%) | 4-7 (36%) |
| FPI | 47 | 10.6 | 10-5 (67%) | 6-2 (75%) |
| The blend | 50 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 21 | 56% | 48% |
The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 21 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 4 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 74 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.
What's changed since 1:16pm
- OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.5.
- OffPhiladelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars dropped off. It was Philadelphia Eagles +7.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.0Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Greentoward North Texas Mean Greenwith the public
- → 2.6Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatswith the public
- → 2.4Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irishtoward Notre Dame Fighting Irishwith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 247 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 63 | 9.93 |
| The market | 355 | 10.79 |
| Massey | 218 | 10.90 |
| FPI | 276 | 11.00 |
| SP+ | 227 | 11.23 |
| Sagarin | 345 | 11.92 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 156-147 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-12 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 911143 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.31 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.59 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.53 |
| betPARX | 256 | 1.51 |
| Bally Bet | 256 | 1.50 |
| Kalshi | 262 | 1.50 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.47 |
| BetRivers | 464 | 1.47 |
| BetOnline.ag | 434 | 1.41 |
| LowVig.ag | 424 | 1.40 |
| Courtside | 219 | 1.40 |
| MyBookie.ag | 357 | 1.38 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 256 | 1.30 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.27 |
| Fanatics | 401 | 1.25 |
| theScore Bet | 253 | 1.20 |
| BetUS | 363 | 1.18 |
| Caesars | 349 | 1.18 |
| Bovada | 434 | 1.15 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.10 |
| Pinnacle | 433 | 1.10 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.07 |
| Fliff | 212 | 1.06 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 0.97 |
| Polymarket | 107 | 0.90 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 4 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ unchanged for 10 days
- Sagarin updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 2 days ago
- nfelo updated yesterday
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.