Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Eagles at TitansTitans +7.5-120 · 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.4%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (2.7%) · TOM +7.5 at -120 (2.5%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.3%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -120 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.
Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 1 sneaky; the strongest is Jaguars +3 (Jaguars at Broncos) at 0.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.
If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Moved closer since the 12:57am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 12:57am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Commanders at Cowboys 3:25pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Cowboys -3.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -4.5 to -4.0; the price from +101 to -107. - Wake Forest at Louisville Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Waiting now
A Little Nasty at Wake Forest +14.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Today
14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5.Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL 12:00pmTitans +7.5should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 38.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -335 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -125 | 40 -102 | +262 | -315 |
All 24 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -335 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -335 |
| betPARX | +7 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +7 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +272 | -335 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +7 -109 | 39.5 -109 | +270 | -335 |
| Courtside | — | 37.5 +116 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +285 | -355 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -115 | +280 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -117 | 39.5 -107 | +270 | -335 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +285 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -125 | 40 -102 | +262 | -315 |
| ReBet | +7 -109 | 39.5 -110 | +285 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -120 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +272 here against +302 consensus.
Courtside has the total at 37.5 while Pinnacle is at 40. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.0 | +206 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +216 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +285 | +234 | +4.0% |
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -120 | -133 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus; moneyline +272 here against +302 consensus.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL 3:05pmJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsA Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At -113 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -113 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -107 | -150 | +132 |
All 24 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -113 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -125 | 45.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -113 | -153 | +133 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -105 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -1085 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 45.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +133 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -151 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -107 | -150 | +132 |
| ReBet | -3 -110 | 45 -110 | -151 | +128 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -113 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 22% chance of rain.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +143 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -113 | -115 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +128 | +128 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -107 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL 12:00pmUnder 47.5weather: 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 +104 | -213 | +184 |
All 24 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -109 | 47.5 -115 | -218 | +183 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -943 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -118 | 47.5 -118 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -210 | +176 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -240 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5 -110 | 48 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -5 -110 | 48 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -5 -110 | 48 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -103 | 47.5 -107 | -215 | +183 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -214 | +178 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 +104 | -213 | +184 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -214 | +178 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Vikings).
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -202 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -208 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.5 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -4.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -205 | -191 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-13 18:15; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL 3:25pmCardinals +3.5should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 41.5 -104 | +169 | -194 |
All 24 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4 -115 | 40.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -112 | 41 -108 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -115 | 40.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 41 -115 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4 -114 | 40.5 -118 | +174 | -209 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -2356 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 40.5 -115 | +170 | -205 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 41.5 -102 | +176 | -210 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +170 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -113 | 40.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +176 | -210 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 41.5 -104 | +169 | -194 |
| ReBet | +4 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +173 | -206 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 41.5 +100 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 2.0 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +251 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +294 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +162 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +3.5 | +100 | -109 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +170 | +158 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -113 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL 12:00pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +8Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +107 | 42 +103 | -385 | +312 |
All 24 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -455 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 41 -120 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +340 |
| betPARX | -8 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -455 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -8 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 41.5 -107 | -420 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -2659 | -426 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -440 | +340 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 +100 | 41.5 -102 | -450 | +350 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -120 | 41.5 -110 | -500 | +335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +105 | 41.5 -107 | -435 | +340 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +107 | 42 +103 | -385 | +312 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -410 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -287 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -317 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -253 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -207 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -118 | -124 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +350 | +288 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL 3:25pm49ers -13.5should be 49ers -13.5 at KalshiNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -103 | 45.5 +102 | -1032 | +694 |
All 24 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -113 | 45 -108 | -910 | +575 |
| BetAnything | -13 -115 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 45 -108 | -1050 | +686 |
| betPARX | -13 -113 | 45 -108 | -910 | +575 |
| BetRivers | -13 -113 | 45 -108 | -910 | +575 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -105 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 -115 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -898 | +652 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -950 | +625 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -1000 | +660 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -1310 | +690 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -105 | 45 -105 | -1050 | +686 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1009 | +704 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -103 | 45.5 +102 | -1032 | +694 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -952 | +650 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -431 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -730 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -642 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (22 books) | -13.0 | -905 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -13.5 | -103 | -106 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -1000 | -554 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -108 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL 3:05pmRaiders +6.5should be Raiders +6.5 at Caesars · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -108 | -285 | +225 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 43 -118 | -305 | +254 |
All 23 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -108 | -285 | +225 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 43.5 -108 | -285 | +234 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -113 | -310 | +245 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -688 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -335 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -112 | 43.5 -105 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 43 -118 | -305 | +254 |
| ReBet | -7 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -104 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.7 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -214 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -271 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -273 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +260 | +221 | +3.4% |
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | -104 | -114 | +2.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL 12:00pmSaints +8.5should be Saints +9 · giving up 0.5 pts at Caesars · was +8.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Saints is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 45 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 45.5 -107 | -421 | +336 |
All 24 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 45 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 46 -112 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +101 | 45 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 46 -112 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -107 | 46 -112 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 45 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -289 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | -430 | +340 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -490 | +335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -9 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -9 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +100 | 45 -107 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 45.5 -107 | -421 | +336 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 45% chance of rain.
Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -336 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -280 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -292 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +8.5 | -109 | -117 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +340 | +297 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL 12:00pmTexans -2.5should be Texans -2.5 at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +107 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +131 |
All 24 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +128 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -112 | -152 | +128 |
| Courtside | — | 45.5 -108 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -138 | +118 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +107 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +131 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 45.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Texans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texans -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -134 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -134 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -160 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans -2.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -138 | -138 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 43.5 -107 | +127 | -143 |
All 24 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -115 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -152 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -115 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +3 -115 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -152 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -148 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1501 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -104 | 43.5 -110 | +128 | -152 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +130 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 43.5 -107 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +126 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 43.5 -107 | +127 | -143 |
| ReBet | +3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | +126 | -148 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Panthers).
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +129 |
| Sagarin | PK | -138 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -171 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | +100 | +107 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +125 | +132 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 13:02; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 44 -110 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 45 +101 | +148 | -168 |
All 24 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 44 -110 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -113 | +150 | -186 |
| BetAnything | +3 -106 | 44.5 -110 | +148 | -172 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 44.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 44 -110 | +151 | -172 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -113 | +150 | -186 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 44.5 -113 | +150 | -186 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -103 | 44 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -907 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 44.5 -114 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 44 -107 | +151 | -172 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +151 | -179 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 45 +101 | +148 | -168 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +151 | -179 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Jets).
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +155 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +168 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +135 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 45.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | -114 | -100 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -172 | -146 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward New York Jets since 09-13 18:32; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.7 consensus; moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -110 | 42 +102 | -249 | +213 |
All 24 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 41.5 -108 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +203 |
| betPARX | -5 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -5 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -235 | +194 |
| Courtside | — | 50.5 -309 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 41.5 -108 | -230 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -120 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -260 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -5.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -5.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -105 | 41.5 -107 | -245 | +203 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -238 | +198 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -110 | 42 +102 | -249 | +213 |
| ReBet | -5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -238 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 41.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Patriots).
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -186 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -186 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -166 |
| Market (22 books) | -5.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -5.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -240 | -191 | -5.0% |
| Total | Under 41.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -202 | +162 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 51 -107 | -196 | +171 |
All 24 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -202 | +162 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -110 | 51 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 51 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -202 | +175 |
| betPARX | -4 -110 | 51 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 51 -108 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -202 | +172 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 51 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4 -111 | 50.5 -117 | -209 | +175 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -359 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -120 | 50.5 -120 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -102 | 50.5 -114 | -200 | +168 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -215 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4 -115 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -4 -115 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -4 -115 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 51 -107 | -202 | +175 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 51 -107 | -196 | +171 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -208 | +174 |
| theScore Bet | -4 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -161 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -177 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -172 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.0 | -193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.0 | -107 | +112 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -202 | -164 | -4.8% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL 7:20pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 6, our data says Chiefs by 6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 +103 | 47 +103 | -269 | +227 |
All 24 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| BetMGM | — | 46 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 46.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 46 +100 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -6 -107 | 46.5 -107 | -290 | +230 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -285 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 46.5 +100 | -270 | +220 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -115 | 46 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -320 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -105 | 46.5 -102 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -297 | +229 |
| Pinnacle | -6 +103 | 47 +103 | -269 | +227 |
| ReBet | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| theScore Bet | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +220 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 39% chance of rain.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -243 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -216 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | -112 | -103 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -270 | -220 | -4.2% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmNo betmarket says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 48.5 +101 | -322 | +275 |
All 24 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 48 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +258 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -108 | 47.5 -118 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -6611 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -7 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 47.5 -115 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -120 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -105 | 48 -107 | -320 | +260 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -340 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 48.5 +101 | -322 | +275 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 47.5 -120 | -330 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7.0 | -110 | +115 | -5.8% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -320 | -245 | -5.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 2Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Coastal Carolina by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -121 | -105 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -124 | -107 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1.5, only $52 available; Liberty Flames +1.5, only $52 available; Over 53.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (3 books) | -1.5 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | -121 | -120 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
All 11 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -114 | 46.5 -106 | -295 | +240 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -113 | 46.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -325 | +235 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -310 | +228 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 45.5 -120 | -295 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -6.5, only $102 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $496 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -252 |
| FPI | -13.0 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -209 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -195 |
| Market (10 books) | -6.5 | -279 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -305 | -243 | -4.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Fri Sep 25
4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson to winour data says 56 in 100 · -121Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
All 4 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -105 | -121 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -116 | 48.5 -114 | -107 | -124 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson to win · -121. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears ML, only $63 available; Clemson Tigers ML, only $270 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (3 books) | +1.5 | +108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -121 | -126 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -1.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmNo betmarket says Army by 3, our data says Army by 4Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 4. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +128 | -159 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +129 | -165 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -114 | +126 | -168 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $63 available; Temple Owls ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| Massey | +5.5 | +179 |
| Market (7 books) | +3.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -3.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -160 | -148 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Indiana by 23.5, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.
The spread
The total
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
All 10 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| betPARX | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -109 | 48 -108 | — | +1400 |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -2500 | +910 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -114 | 47.5 -116 | -2500 | +840 |
| theScore Bet | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $102 available; Under 47.5, only $24 available; Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $268 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -23.5 | -2857 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
53 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says LSU by 8, our data says LSU by 5.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 5.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +252 27¢ |
All 10 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -8 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -335 | +255 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 53.5 -108 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -106 | -315 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | -350 | +244 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -8.5, only $51 available; Texas A&M Aggies +8.5, only $26 available; Over 53.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (9 books) | -8.0 | -315 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.0 | -110 | -165 | +9.8% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +310 | +172 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Massachusetts by 5.5, our data says Massachusetts by 2Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 2, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| Massey | -5.5 | -178 |
| Market (2 books) | +5.5 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +5.5 | -110 | -154 | +8.2% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +174 | +124 | +8.1% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 15, our data says Virginia Tech by 11.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 15, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 11.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
All 4 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +490 | -710 |
| MyBookie.ag | +15.5 -110 | — | +460 | -752 |
| ReBet | +15.5 -116 | — | +440 | -800 |
Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 62°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles +16.5, only $2 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -16.5, only $18 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (3 books) | +15.0 | +642 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +15.0 | -110 | -153 | +8.1% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +460 | +331 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmWest Virginia +1.5should be West Virginia -2 · getting 3.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma State by 0.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. 2.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| Massey | -6.0 | -184 |
| Market (9 books) | +0.5 | +104 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers +1.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -102 | -122 | +4.5% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.8.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmVanderbilt +9should be Vanderbilt +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Auburn by 9, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 8. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Vanderbilt's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +266 26¢ |
All 10 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| betPARX | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -391 | +275 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 52.5 -116 | -400 | +270 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers -9.5, only $212 available; Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $28 available; Over 53.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| Massey | -4.5 | -158 |
| Market (9 books) | -9.0 | -334 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +223 | +5.0% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.0 | -110 | -134 | +4.8% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNorthern Illinois +9should be Northern Illinois +8 · getting 1 ptWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 9, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 8. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -164 |
| Market (3 books) | -9.0 | -323 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +9.0 | -110 | -133 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +280 | +224 | +4.5% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmWashington State +13should be Washington State +11 · getting 2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 13, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11. 2.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Washington State +13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (3 books) | +13.0 | +487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +13.0 | -110 | -133 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +400 | +307 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUL Monroe +13should be UL Monroe +11 · getting 2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. 2.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +12.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +420 | -580 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | — | +400 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | — | +390 | -599 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | — | +370 | -599 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5, only $275 available; Florida Atlantic Owls -13.5, only $275 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $94 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (4 books) | +13.0 | +509 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +13.0 | -110 | -131 | +4.2% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +395 | +312 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmMissouri +3.5should be Missouri +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +1.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 2.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Missouri is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 9 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -108 | -165 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -108 | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -109 | -167 | +133 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -183 | +142 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 57.5 -119 | -187 | +139 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5, only $477 available; Missouri Tigers +3.5, only $459 available; Over 58.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| Massey | PK | +102 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.5 | -154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +3.5 | -105 | -123 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +146 | +130 | +2.7% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa State +12should be Iowa State +10.5 · getting 1.5 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 12, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +12.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| Massey | +7.5 | +213 |
| Market (6 books) | +12.0 | +462 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +12.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | +400 | +303 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOle Miss +2.5should be Ole Miss PK · getting 2.5 pts at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 2, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ole Miss's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -107 50¢ | — | -103 49¢ |
All 11 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -107 50¢ | — | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -130 | +105 |
| betPARX | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -109 | 58.5 -109 | -129 | +104 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 +100 | -116 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -102 | -118 | -102 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -138 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | 58.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 58.5 -110 | -132 | +103 |
| ReBet | — | 58.5 -109 | -134 | +101 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $1 available; Ole Miss Rebels +2.5, only $464 available; Florida Gators ML, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| Massey | +4.5 | +156 |
| Market (10 books) | -2.0 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +115 | +100 | +3.4% |
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 | -105 | -120 | +3.4% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6.5 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| Massey | +4.5 | +157 |
| Market (4 books) | +7.0 | +255 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +213 | +192 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +3.5should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (3 books) | -3.5 | -168 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +3.5 | -110 | -125 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +146 | +129 | +3.1% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amTennessee +6should be Tennessee +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +4.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 6, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Tennessee's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +174 35¢ | — |
All 10 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +174 35¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 56.5 -110 | +185 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 56.5 -110 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 56.5 -112 | +180 | -235 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -119 | 57.5 -114 | +176 | -242 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +6.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +5.5, only $164 available; Texas Longhorns -5.5, only $225 available; Over 57.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (9 books) | +6.0 | +203 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +6.0 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +180 | +161 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmWyoming +5.5should be Wyoming +4.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 4.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +152 38¢ | — |
All 5 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +152 38¢ | — |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | — | +180 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | — | +178 | -234 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | — | +174 | -238 |
Marked: best for Wyoming, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wyoming +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +5.5, only $73 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5, only $52 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (4 books) | +5.5 | +204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys +5.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | +174 | +156 | +2.5% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUConn +5.5should be UConn +4.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 4.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -200 | +164 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | — | -232 | +177 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | — | -238 | +173 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -5.5, only $52 available; UConn Huskies +5.5, only $52 available; Over 48.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| Massey | -0.5 | -104 |
| Market (3 books) | -5.5 | -199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +5.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +173 | +157 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNevada +4.5should be Nevada +4 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +162 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | — | +170 | -220 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | — | +165 | -216 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | — | +162 | -220 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5, only $159 available; Air Force Falcons -4.5, only $159 available; Nevada Wolf Pack ML, only $155 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (4 books) | +4.5 | +190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +163 | +147 | +2.5% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +12Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 12.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
All 10 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14 -109 | 47 -112 | -625 | +430 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| betPARX | -14 -109 | 47 -112 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -14 -110 | 47 -113 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 47.5 +100 | -623 | +487 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -650 | +470 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 48.5 -111 | -699 | +410 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs -13.5, only $326 available; Oklahoma Sooners +13.5, only $59 available; Over 46.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| Massey | -9.0 | -248 |
| Market (9 books) | -14.0 | -555 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +470 | +380 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmOregon +1.5should be Oregon -1 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 1. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oregon is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | — | +105 47¢ | — |
All 10 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | — | +105 47¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +1 -109 | 63.5 -113 | -104 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +1 -108 | 62.5 -108 | -105 | -112 |
| betPARX | +1 -109 | 63.5 -113 | -104 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +1 -110 | 63.5 -114 | -105 | -120 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -103 | 62.5 -108 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 61.5 -112 | +104 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 +100 | 61.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| ReBet | -0.5 -111 | 62.5 -109 | -113 | -117 |
Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon +1.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now PK. The market has moved 1.9 toward Oregon, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -1.5, only $376 available; Over 62.5, only $159 available; Under 62.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (9 books) | PK | +103 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks +1.5 | -115 | -125 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -105 | -113 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 62.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.1.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +9Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Massey | -8.0 | -225 |
| Market (4 books) | -9.0 | -314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +260 | +249 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUtah State -2.5should be Utah State -3.5 · getting 1 ptWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 3.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Utah State -2.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| Massey | -7.0 | -207 |
| Market (4 books) | -2.5 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies -2.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | -140 | -142 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmMichigan State +4.5should be Michigan State +4 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +5.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (9 books) | +4.5 | +181 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +4.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +160 | +152 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 3.1.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amOver 51.5should be 53.2 · getting 1.7 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
All 5 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | — | +425 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | — | +400 | -599 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -109 | — | +380 | -625 |
Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $159 available; Under 51.5, only $159 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| Massey | +9.5 | +260 |
| Market (4 books) | +13.5 | +540 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +13.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +460 | +375 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado +6.5should be Colorado +6.5 at FanDuelWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 4 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 52.5 -112 | -260 | +210 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | — | -280 | +210 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | — | -285 | +204 |
Marked: best for Colorado, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +6.5, only $467 available; Under 52.5, only $459 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| Massey | -6.0 | -181 |
| Market (3 books) | -6.5 | -245 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes ML | +210 | +191 | +2.1% |
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes +6.5 | -104 | -109 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa +4.5should be Iowa +4.5 at DraftKingsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | — |
All 11 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -113 | -210 | +163 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 37.5 -108 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -192 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -106 | 39.5 -110 | -205 | +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -120 | -240 | +185 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | — | -240 | +182 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -114 | 37.5 -125 | -244 | +178 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $94 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5, only $19 available; Over 39.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (10 books) | -4.5 | -193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +166 | +156 | +1.6% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado State +13should be Colorado State +12.5 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +13.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| Massey | -11.0 | -306 |
| Market (3 books) | -13.0 | -487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +13.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +400 | +368 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Arkansas by 9.5, our data says Arkansas by 11Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 11, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +265 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | — | -360 | +260 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -111 | — | -370 | +255 |
Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks -10.5, only $38 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane +10.5, only $40 available; Over 52.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| Massey | -17.5 | -679 |
| Market (3 books) | -9.5 | -317 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks -9.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | -360 | -321 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amWake Forest +13.5should be Wake Forest +12.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -564 84¢ | — |
All 11 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -564 84¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 58 -113 | -625 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -623 | +487 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -650 | +470 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | -550 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -575 | +380 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 57.5 -119 | -575 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -13.5, only $161 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $17 available; Over 58.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| Massey | -11.5 | -327 |
| Market (10 books) | -13.5 | -527 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +470 | +380 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 53.5should be 52.1 · getting 1.4 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says South Florida by 15, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -719 87¢ |
All 4 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -719 87¢ |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +530 | -780 |
| MyBookie.ag | +15.5 -110 | — | +460 | -752 |
| ReBet | +15.5 -114 | — | +450 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $56 available; Under 53.5, only $56 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| Massey | +17.0 | +616 |
| Market (3 books) | +15.0 | +664 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -15.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -766 | -534 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Houston by 20.5, our data says Houston by 19Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 20.5.
The spread
The total
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1429 93¢ |
All 4 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1429 93¢ |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +860 | -1600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +20.5 -110 | — | +700 | -1493 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -105 | — | +660 | -1587 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $17 available; Houston Cougars -20.5, only $153 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| Massey | +14.5 | +459 |
| Market (3 books) | +20.5 | +1257 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +860 | +823 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 25Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1043 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -3863 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +2000 | +1859 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.8.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says James Madison by 3, our data says James Madison by 4Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 3, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 4. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | — | +125 | -160 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | — | +122 | -163 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $50 available; Under 51.5, only $52 available; Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| Massey | +7.0 | +203 |
| Market (3 books) | +3.0 | +142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -3.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -160 | -151 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Tulane by 18.5, our data says Tulane by 18.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.
The spread
The total
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | — | -1099 | +590 |
| ReBet | -18.5 -114 | — | -1099 | +570 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave -18.5, only $275 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5, only $275 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $282 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| Massey | -17.5 | -667 |
| Market (3 books) | -18.5 | -994 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +810 | +734 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 51.5should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 2, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 | — | — |
All 4 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 | — | — |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +105 | -126 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | — | +103 | -131 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -109 | — | +101 | -133 |
Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +1.5, only $28 available; TCU Horned Frogs -1.5, only $29 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (3 books) | +2.0 | +116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs -2.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | -131 | -123 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amNo betmarket says Kentucky by 20.5, our data says Kentucky by 19.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The total
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
All 5 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | — | -1200 | +750 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | — | -1493 | +700 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -125 | — | -1587 | +660 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats -20.5, only $208 available; South Alabama Jaguars +20.5, only $24 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| Massey | -15.5 | -531 |
| Market (4 books) | -20.5 | -1198 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +860 | +851 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 54.5should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +13.5 -104 | 54.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -110 | — | +420 | -676 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | — | +410 | -699 |
Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +14.5, only $29 available; UNLV Rebels -14.5, only $270 available; Over 54.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| Massey | +13.5 | +406 |
| Market (3 books) | +14.0 | +580 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +14.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +460 | +435 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Boise State by 8, our data says Boise State by 8.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Boise State by 6.5 to Boise State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Boise State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| Massey | +9.5 | +264 |
| Market (3 books) | +8.0 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -8.0 | -110 | +120 | -6.9% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -298 | -235 | -4.8% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 54.5should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 51.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins -2.5, only $163 available; Over 54.5, only $49 available; Under 54.5, only $483 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (1 books) | +2.5 | +121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +110 | +116 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 3.0.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says New Mexico by 13.5, our data says New Mexico by 13Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 13.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| Massey | +11.0 | +319 |
| Market (1 books) | +13.5 | +536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +13.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +430 | +383 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 28, our data says Notre Dame by 27Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.
The spread
The total
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -2580 96¢ |
All 8 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -2580 96¢ |
| Courtside | +27.5 -103 | 56.5 -113 | +2246 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +2000 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +1125 | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -116 | 57.5 -111 | +1025 | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +1500 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $53 available; Under 56.5, only $69 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $178 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| Massey | +25.0 | +1756 |
| Market (7 books) | +28.0 | +3685 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +28.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2000 | +2404 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 55.5should be 54.2 · getting 1.3 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 38.5.
The spread
The total
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $156 available; Under 55.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (1 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +38.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says San Diego State by 2.5, our data says San Diego State by 1Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says San Diego State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 1. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (3 books) | +2.5 | +119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets +2.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | +105 | +113 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmNo betmarket says Penn State by 11, our data says Penn State by 13Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 11, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 13. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Penn State by 11.5 to Penn State by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (10 books) | -11.0 | -463 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -11.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -450 | -385 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmNo betmarket says Virginia by 22, our data says Virginia by 23.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 22.
The spread
The total
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -21.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -2000 | +980 |
| MyBookie.ag | -22.5 -110 | — | -1786 | +780 |
| ReBet | -22.5 -116 | — | -1887 | +730 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $153 available; Under 55.5, only $153 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $292 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| Massey | -26.0 | -2106 |
| Market (3 books) | -22.0 | -1500 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -22.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -1887 | -1422 | priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 54should be 51.3 · getting 2.9 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.
The spread
The total
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Courtside | -42.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $57 available; Under 54.5, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (3 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -132 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 12, our data says Alabama by 12Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 9 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | -560 | +400 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | -560 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -590 | +400 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -120 | -475 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -500 | +340 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 51.5 -125 | -526 | +330 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5, only $90 available; South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $25 available; Over 53.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| Massey | -13.0 | -388 |
| Market (9 books) | -12.0 | -455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -12.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -455 | -359 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.3.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Arkansas State by 4.5, our data says Arkansas State by 5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| Massey | -7.5 | -221 |
| Market (3 books) | -4.5 | -188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves -4.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves ML | -192 | -169 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says NC State by 13, our data says NC State by 14Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| Massey | -15.5 | -533 |
| Market (3 books) | -13.0 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack -13.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | -549 | -435 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmUnder 59.5should be 58.4 · getting 1.1 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| Massey | -29.0 | -3184 |
| Market (3 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +4000 | +6586 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmNo betmarket says Oregon State by 11, our data says Oregon State by 11.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| Massey | +11.5 | +329 |
| Market (3 books) | +11.0 | +438 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -11.0 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -500 | -322 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 13, our data says Fresno State by 14Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| Massey | -15.0 | -503 |
| Market (4 books) | -13.0 | -488 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -550 | -430 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmNo betmarket says Georgia Tech by 5.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 6Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +155 | -188 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | — | +171 | -224 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | — | +167 | -228 |
Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +5.5, only $477 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $459 available; Over 47.5, only $466 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| Massey | +7.0 | +201 |
| Market (3 books) | +5.5 | +190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5 | -105 | +106 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -188 | -180 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmNo betmarket says Washington by 9, our data says Washington by 10Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 10. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Washington by 7.5 to Washington by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
All 7 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -391 | +275 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -116 | 45.5 -114 | -400 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Washington).
Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -9.5, only $468 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5, only $468 available; Over 45.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| Massey | -12.0 | -350 |
| Market (6 books) | -9.0 | -346 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Huskies -9.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Washington Huskies ML | -345 | -280 | -3.9% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.8.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Sep 27
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 38.5 -115 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 38.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 40 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -114 | 39.5 -109 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 39.5 -105 | +130 | -154 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 39.5 -115 | +120 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -110 | 38.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +120 | -154 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 39.5 -110 | +123 | -151 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $0 available; Carolina Panthers ML, only $358 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +128 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +110 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +130 | +137 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +112 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -114 | 46.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $1 available; Cincinnati Bengals ML, only $371 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +103 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +113 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 46.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +112 | +128 | -3.2% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 44.5 -110 | +119 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -120 | +116 | -142 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +127 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +125 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | -105 | +107 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +118 | +133 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -131 55¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -131 55¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | -132 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -132 | +112 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -137 | +107 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -134 | +110 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.
New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -114 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -122 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -142 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +110 | +132 | -4.6% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -480 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +430 | -590 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +380 | -580 |
| LowVig.ag | +8.5 -105 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -549 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +380 | -526 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.5 | +294 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +341 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +369 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +161 |
| Market (12 books) | +8.5 | +455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 | -110 | +119 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -455 | -292 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 42 -105 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 42 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -285 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -110 | 42 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -270 | +202 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -120 | -260 | +206 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -204 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -200 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -245 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -5.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -250 | -200 | -4.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -114 | +107 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +102 | -120 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 41.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +105 | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +107 | -131 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $423 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $225 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.
Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +153 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -171 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +148 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +192 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +114 | +128 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -490 82¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -490 82¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -500 | +375 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -540 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -105 | 48.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -461 | +320 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -109 | -450 | +330 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).
San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -332 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -380 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -472 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -219 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -441 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 | -110 | +113 | -5.4% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -455 | -309 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmBuccaneers to winour data says 57 in 100 · -116A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -126 54¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -126 54¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -120 | +101 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -116 | -102 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -126 | -101 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -120 | -123 | +101 |
Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $220 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -147 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -1.0 | +120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 | -105 | -117 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -116 | -131 | +2.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -175 62¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 52 -115 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -107 | 52.5 -109 | +132 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -105 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -125 | 52.5 -110 | +135 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 52 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 52.5 -110 | +128 | -157 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.0 | +163 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +146 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +214 |
| Market (11 books) | +3.0 | +148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -159 | -148 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 44.5 -118 | -164 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -174 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -115 | -175 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 45 -110 | -172 | +134 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -109 | -168 | +137 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $354 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -158 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -147 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -163 | -147 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmNo betmarket says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | +110 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -137 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +110 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $368 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +122 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +110 | +133 | -4.7% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
0-2 · -2.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-1 · +0.82 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-4 · -2.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nastiest | 0-1 | 0.0% | -1.0 u | small sample |
| Nasty Pick | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-16 | 46.7% | -3.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 127 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 06:03.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 69 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.70 | 54 |
| FPI | 9.83 | 109 |
| SP+ | 10.01 | 109 |
| The market | 10.19 | 160 |
| Sagarin | 11.75 | 150 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 55 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.02 | 54 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 55 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.08 | 69 |
The line archive, 160 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 59, and sat still 26. Our side taken at the open finished 0.47 points better than the close on average over 150 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.35, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.28, Kalshi 9.67, MyBookie.ag 9.80.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-3, +0.70 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 2.
NFL
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming at Central Michigan | Under | 40 | 40 | +0.0 | same side |
| Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Over | 44.5 | 44.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans | Over | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Minnesota +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Over | 41 | 41 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Over | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | New York +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 111 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 60 | 14.7 | 18-25 (42%) | 12-13 (48%) |
| Massey | 64 | 13.7 | 14-16 (47%) | 5-10 (33%) |
| The blend | 65 | 14.0 | 14-21 (40%) | 9-9 (50%) |
NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 3 | 6.1 | 3-0 (100%) | — |
| FPI | 1 | 18.6 | — | — |
| The blend | 3 | 6.7 | 2-0 (100%) | — |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 86 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 6 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
What's changed since 12:57am
- OffPhiladelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans dropped off. It was Tennessee Titans +7.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public
- → 1.0Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Texas Longhornswith the public
- → 0.8Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncostoward Boise State Broncoswith the public
- → 0.5Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverinestoward Iowa Hawkeyesagainst the public
- → 0.5South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tidetoward Alabama Crimson Tidewith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 69 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 54 | 7.70 |
| FPI | 111 | 9.85 |
| SP+ | 109 | 10.01 |
| The market | 177 | 10.28 |
| Sagarin | 167 | 11.75 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 80-85 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 816192 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 86 | 1.88 |
| LowVig.ag | 204 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 210 | 1.44 |
| DraftKings | 236 | 1.40 |
| FanDuel | 260 | 1.35 |
| BetRivers | 244 | 1.27 |
| BetMGM | 196 | 1.25 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.21 |
| Caesars | 186 | 1.21 |
| BetUS | 155 | 1.15 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.14 |
| MyBookie.ag | 159 | 1.13 |
| TOM | 191 | 1.10 |
| Fanatics | 179 | 1.09 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 6 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated 4 days ago