Every game opens. Click one for all four rating systems against the market, our number on the spread and the total, and how both lines have moved since they opened.
Nasty Picks
A pick posted here stays here until kickoff and is graded at the number we posted. Each one says where it stands at today's line.
App State at East CarolinaApp State +7-110+3.2%sat 11:00 am Buck's case ›Still a play Called tue 4:52pm at +7.5 -110. Now App State +7 -110, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 2.5 pts+9.5 open Sunnow +7we say +6Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
App State at East CarolinaApp State to win+220+3.5%sat 11:00 am Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Damn Near Nasty
Ravens at ColtsColts +3.5-110 · 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%sun 12:00 pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.A Little Nasty
Buck's Take
Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.
Worth a look: 1 side (Colts +3.5). These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.
Why they're not picks yet: Ravens at Colts: NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty. Over eleven seasons they hit 54%; the stale-line rule is the NFL's real edge, so NFL picks come from stale numbers.
If you're betting them anyway: Buck's sides are Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5 (the ratings make it Ravens by 1).
Buck
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at SeahawksNFL 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 3, our data says Seahawks by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 44.5 -106 | -170 | +149 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks) and 5 more.
FanDuel still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -162 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -180 | -149 | -4.5% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:35 pm · neutral49ers to winour data says 40 in 100 · +172 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 48 -111 | -205 | +178 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · +172. A price bet, 49ers loses more often than not.
Also out: Keir Thomas II (LB, Rams), Aaron Donald (DT, Rams), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -165 |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -185 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +172 | +148 | +3.5% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at MiamiCFB tomorrow 7:00 pmNo betmarket says Miami by 56.5, our data says Miami by 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 56.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 63.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -56.5 -114 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 24% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Florida A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Florida A&M | |
| Sagarin | -59.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Florida A&M and Miami on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -56.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Hurricanes -56.5 | -110 | +138 | -10.3% |
The line is -56.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Sep 11
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Missouri at KansasMissouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at KansasCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmOver 50.5should be 51.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -109 | 50 -112 | +175 | -212 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.3 toward Kansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +140 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +180 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +170 | +165 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +5.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston CollegeCFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pmOver 54.5should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boston College by 3, we say Boston College by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boston College by 3.5 to Boston College by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -104 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -117 | 54.5 -101 | -164 | +139 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Rutgers).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $393 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +118 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -162 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.0 | -112 | -105 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +130 | +132 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -104 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at LouisvilleCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Louisville by 37, our data says Louisville by 36Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Louisville by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Villanova ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $51 available; Under 56.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Villanova | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Villanova | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Villanova and Louisville on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -37.0 | -2475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Villanova Wildcats +37.0 | -110 | +146 | -11.7% |
| Moneyline | Villanova Wildcats ML | +3233 | +13171 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC StateCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says NC State by 30.5, our data says NC State by 30Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says NC State by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from NC State by 29.5 to NC State by 30.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 31% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Richmond | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Richmond | |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3965 |
| Massey | rates Richmond and NC State on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -30.5 | -2692 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Richmond Spiders +30.5 | -110 | +155 | -13.1% |
| Moneyline | Richmond Spiders ML | +2800 | +4815 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at VirginiaCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Virginia by 44.5, our data says Virginia by 45.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 44.5 to Virginia by 45.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Norfolk State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Norfolk State | |
| Sagarin | -46.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Norfolk State and Virginia on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -44.5 | -110 | +148 | -12.0% |
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Sep 12
79 gamesBest: App State +7.0, Nasty PickAppalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amApp State +7should be App State +6 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +8.5Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take App State +7.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says East Carolina by 7, we say East Carolina by 6.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but App State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +100 | 56.5 -107 | -313 | +246 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 31% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -115 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -179 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +220 | +188 | +3.5% |
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLACFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmSan Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5A Little Nasty · San Diego StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 55.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -465 | +335 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -114 | 55 -109 | -494 | +358 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: moneyline -445 here against -383 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -190 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -616 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.5 | -445 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +335 | +302 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: moneyline -445 here against -383 consensus.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise StateCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 55 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -111 | 54.5 -116 | -364 | +279 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Memphis, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -176 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -234 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -275 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +270 | +234 | +2.9% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus; moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&MCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -104 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -113 | 50.5 -105 | -652 | +443 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -728 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -603 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -571 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.5 | -491 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.5 | -104 | -111 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -700 | -520 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at IowaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 40.5should be 41 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 40.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.8 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.8 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.8 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -106 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 41 -104 | -606 | +419 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 31% chance of rain.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -574 here against -463 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -700 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -728 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -106 | -114 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -600 | -493 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus; moneyline -574 here against -463 consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at MarshallCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmMiddle Tennessee +13.5should be Middle Tennessee +12 · getting 1.5 pts · was +17.5A Little Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Marshall by 13.5, we say Marshall by 12. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 57 -105 | -580 | +410 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -109 | 57 -107 | -641 | +437 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline -555 here against -456 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -252 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -361 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.5 | -555 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +410 | +372 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: moneyline -555 here against -456 consensus.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 51should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 5.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 51 -112 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -102 | 51.5 -106 | -218 | +180 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -5.5, only $1 available; Illinois Fighting Illini ML, only $201 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -195 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -140 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils +6.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | +175 | +177 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -112 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -195 consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amMichigan to winour data says 37 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than notA Little Nasty · MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Michigan. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 5. At +175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 43 -115 | +182 | -220 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan to win · +175 at TOM. A price bet, Michigan loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +218 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +115 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +175 | +171 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +5.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at ArmyCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 46.5should be 47.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3 to Army by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -171 | +141 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 46.5 -114 | -176 | +148 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $13 available; Under 47.5, only $14 available; Army Black Knights ML, only $430 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -223 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -166 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 53.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -3.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -171 | -145 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -108 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at MinnesotaCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 54.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Mississippi State by 1. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -114 | 55.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 | -103 49¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -115 | 55 -106 | -110 | -106 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Mississippi State).
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $419 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +101 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +154 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0 | -114 | -109 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -108 | -103 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +101 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at PittsburghCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 57should be 56 · getting 1 pt · was 56.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 57 -103 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -108 | 57 -101 | -282 | +226 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UCF). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -261 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -7.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -270 | -214 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -117 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UABCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 55.5should be 56.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 56 -107 | -397 | +300 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward UAB).
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers -10.5, only $96 available; Under 55.5, only $10 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -359 here against -317 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -951 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -232 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +285 | +295 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -108 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -359 here against -317 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmOver 57should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3.5, we say UNLV by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 5 to UNLV by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -108 | 57 -109 | +147 | -175 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward North Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +435 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +207 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +137 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 64.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels -3.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | -175 | -149 | -3.7% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 51should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 13.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.1 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.1 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.1 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -102 | 51 -117 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -117 | 51 -113 | +415 | -597 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.0 | +691 |
| FPI | +11.0 | +331 |
| Sagarin | +11.5 | +358 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -102 | +105 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +400 | +422 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -117 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida AtlanticCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 58.5should be 59.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4.5, we say Navy by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 58.5 | — | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -103 | 58 -114 | +173 | -209 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic).
Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls +4.5, only $129 available; Over 58.5, only $102 available; Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +451 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +396 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 63.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -4.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -200 | -178 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmUnder 47.5weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -105 | +109 | -127 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -108 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +150 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +2.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +110 | +120 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -112 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pmOver 54.5should be 56.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 56.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 12.5, we say Utah by 12. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Utah by 13.5 to Utah by 12.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -485 | +355 |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12 -114 | 55.5 -102 | -511 | +367 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -13.5, only $33 available; Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $366 available; Over 55.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -12.2 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -464 here against -395 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -368 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (11 books) | -12.5 | -464 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 62.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +355 | +371 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -12.2 consensus; total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -464 here against -395 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida InternationalCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 8, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -101 | 48 -101 | -408 | +307 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $73 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $281 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -332 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -103 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -208 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -120 | -141 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +310 | +238 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -332 consensus.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYUCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmArizona +7.5should be Arizona +7.5 · was +7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 48 -108 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 47.5 -113 | -302 | +239 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -240 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats +7.5 | -104 | -118 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | +235 | +222 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 3.8.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kent State by 13, our data says Kent State by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 13, we say Kent State by 9.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | rates Wofford and Kent State on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -13.0 | -482 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wofford Terriers +13.0 | -110 | -140 | +5.9% |
| Moneyline | Wofford Terriers ML | +475 | +279 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at KentuckyCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmKentucky +10should be Kentucky +10 · was +8.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +313 23¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -112 | 49 -113 | +315 | -421 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +273 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +460 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +245 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +324 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +10.0 | -105 | -109 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +310 | +287 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at TulaneCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmSouth Alabama to winour data says 27 in 100 · +285 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 50.9 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -103 | 49.5 -109 | -373 | +285 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM. A price bet, South Alabama loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars +9.5, only $495 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline -359 here against -305 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -193 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -342 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -311 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +285 | +271 | +1.0% |
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +9.5 | -108 | -108 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: moneyline -359 here against -305 consensus.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says North Carolina by 35.5, our data says North Carolina by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Carolina by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F, 33% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | — |
| Massey | rates East Tennessee State and North Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.5 | -4086 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Tennessee State Buccaneers +35.5 | -110 | +136 | -10.1% |
| Moneyline | East Tennessee State Buccaneers ML | +4000 | +10112 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at IndianaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Indiana by 56, our data says Indiana by 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 56.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 64.5 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 64.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Howard | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Howard | |
| Sagarin | -61.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Howard and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -56.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -56.0 | -110 | +131 | -9.2% |
The line is -56.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 19, our data says Kansas State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 23.5 to Kansas State by 19. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -113 | 49.5 -103 | -1095 | +645 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -16.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.8 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -558 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -724 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.0 | -708 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +19.0 | -110 | +114 | -5.8% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +686 | +809 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.2 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amUnder 57should be 55.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 60.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.8 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.8 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.8 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +22.5 -104 | 57 -116 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +22.5 -102 | 57.5 -107 | +975 | -2045 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.5 | +1122 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1383 |
| Sagarin | +23.5 | +1721 |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | +22.5 | +1059 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5 | -104 | +131 | -7.7% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +1052 | +1397 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -104 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 19.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 18 to Virginia Tech by 19.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.8 points since it opened, from 50.8 to 50. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -108 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -1087 91¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -109 | 50.5 -104 | -1180 | +679 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F, 34% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -20.5, only $307 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1153 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -750 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1217 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.5 | -735 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +19.5 | -112 | +128 | -8.9% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +709 | +952 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at TempleCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 49.5should be 51.3 · getting 1.8 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 23.5 to Penn State by 24. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -107 | 49.5 -115 | +1088 | -2436 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Penn State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +22.5 | +1469 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1411 |
| Sagarin | +26.0 | +2418 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -105 |
| Market (12 books) | +24.0 | +1217 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +24.0 | -110 | +135 | -9.9% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1300 | +1703 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Penn State Nittany Lions since 09-05 22:46.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at PurdueCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Wake Forest by 3, our data says Wake Forest by 2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 3, we say Wake Forest by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Wake Forest by 4.5 to Wake Forest by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.7 points since it opened, from 49.7 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -111 | 49 -116 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 49.5 -116 52¢ | +124 43¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -112 | 50 -107 | +128 | -151 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $4 available; Under 49.5, only $481 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | +102 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +3.0 | -111 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +125 | +126 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -116 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at GeorgiaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 41Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Georgia by 39 to Georgia by 41. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 53.4 to 55.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -41 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -111 | 55.5 -111 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -41.0 (the market moved 5.5 toward Georgia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | — |
| FPI | -38.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -157 |
| Market (11 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0 | -110 | -165 | +9.8% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Central Michigan by 25, our data says Central Michigan by 21Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Central Michigan by 25.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $247 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Massey | rates Colgate and Central Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -25.0 | -1278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colgate Raiders +25.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Colgate Raiders ML | +1226 | +1164 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Miami (OH) by 31.5, our data says Miami (OH) by 28Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami (OH) by 31.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F, 26% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -495 |
| Massey | rates Holy Cross and Miami (OH) on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -31.5 | -2453 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Holy Cross Crusaders +31.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Holy Cross Crusaders ML | +2400 | +3421 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball StateCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo betmarket says Ball State by 15.5, our data says Ball State by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ball State by 15.5, we say Ball State by 13.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 39% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -197 |
| Massey | rates Stony Brook and Ball State on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -15.5 | -623 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stony Brook Seawolves +15.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Stony Brook Seawolves ML | +580 | +458 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at AkronCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Akron by 28.5, our data says Akron by 23.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Akron by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 81°F.
Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -608 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Akron on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -28.5 | -2111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +2043 | +1685 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at SyracuseCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Syracuse by 3 to Syracuse by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 57 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 56 -117 | -170 | +143 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 5.9 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -3.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -256 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange -3.5 | +100 | +105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | -165 | -151 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.9 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut at ToledoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Toledo by 35, our data says Toledo by 32Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 82°F.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| Sagarin | -24.0 | -1893 |
| Massey | rates Central Connecticut and Toledo on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Connecticut Blue Devils +35.0 | -110 | +117 | -6.3% |
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at ColoradoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Colorado by 34.5, our data says Colorado by 32Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 33% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2445 |
| Massey | rates Weber State and Colorado on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -34.5 | -2574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Weber State Wildcats +34.5 | -110 | +126 | -8.2% |
| Moneyline | Weber State Wildcats ML | +2500 | +6535 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17 -113 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17 -116 | 50 -112 | -1019 | +613 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -877 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -902 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1227 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.0 | -643 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.0 | -113 | -127 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -900 | -728 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James MadisonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says James Madison by 45.5, our data says James Madison by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 45.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Wagner and James Madison on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wagner Seahawks +45.5 | -110 | -195 | +13.7% |
| Moneyline | Wagner Seahawks ML | +9950 | +55067 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConnCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 12.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 12.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +355 | -485 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -110 | 52 -117 | +348 | -478 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UConn).
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins -11.5, only $203 available; Under 52.5, only $435 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +430 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +241 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +443 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +371 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +13.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +355 | +389 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre DameCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 55should be 53.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -112 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F, 32% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -39.5 | — |
| FPI | -41.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (11 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +44.5 | -110 | -179 | +11.7% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at MassachusettsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Massachusetts by 24, our data says Massachusetts by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Massachusetts by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Kalshi thin: Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -288 |
| Massey | rates Sacred Heart and Massachusetts on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -24.0 | -1150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacred Heart Pioneers +24.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Sacred Heart Pioneers ML | +1102 | +980 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 66 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 66 -108 | -118 | +101 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +249 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +119 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -117 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.0 | 71.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +102 | +109 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 66.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at WashingtonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 56should be 54.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Washington by 23.5 to Washington by 26.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -108 | 55.5 -107 | — | +1433 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2370 |
| FPI | -22.0 | -1398 |
| Sagarin | -34.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (12 books) | -26.5 | -1532 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +141 | -10.8% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1500 | +2381 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at TroyCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says Troy by 23.5, our data says Troy by 20.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Troy by 22.5 to Troy by 23.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -22.5, now -23.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Troy).
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -456 |
| Massey | rates Alabama State and Troy on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama State Hornets +23.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Alabama State Hornets ML | +1050 | +1097 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Troy Trojans since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.5.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New MexicoCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says New Mexico by 41.5, our data says New Mexico by 39.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 41.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $91 available; Under 53.5, only $384 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and New Mexico on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +41.5 | -110 | -192 | +13.4% |
The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at WyomingCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says Wyoming by 23.5, our data says Wyoming by 21.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wyoming by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 72°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $159 available; Under 48.5, only $51 available; Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -473 |
| Massey | rates Northern Colorado and Wyoming on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Colorado Bears +23.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.1% |
| Moneyline | Northern Colorado Bears ML | +1293 | +1298 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMUCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says SMU by 24.5, our data says SMU by 25.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | UC Davis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $51 available; Under 58.5, only $212 available; UC Davis Aggies ML, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -3188 |
| Massey | rates UC Davis and SMU on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -24.5 | -1248 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs -24.5 | -110 | -154 | +8.3% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | -2400 | -2273 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at VanderbiltCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmOver 54should be 55.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 20.5 to Vanderbilt by 21. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -105 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1546 | +815 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F, 30% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $104 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.0 | -1348 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -507 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2136 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -21.0 | -866 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +21.0 | -115 | +125 | -9.0% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +836 | +1093 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at FloridaCFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pmNo betmarket says Florida by 50, our data says Florida by 48.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 50.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 67.5, only $183 available; Under 67.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| Sagarin | -45.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Campbell and Florida on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -50.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 67.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Campbell Fighting Camels +50.0 | -110 | -182 | +12.2% |
The line is -50.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb at LibertyCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Liberty by 26.5, our data says Liberty by 24.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Liberty by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1464 6¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -720 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Liberty on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -26.5 | -1604 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +26.5 | -110 | +126 | -8.1% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1567 | +2035 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at OhioCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.6 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 51. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 50.5 -110 | -136 | +116 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 38% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ohio).
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +216 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -103 | +104 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +120 | +125 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at NebraskaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 51.5should be 49.6 · getting 1.9 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -108 | 52 -106 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 25% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -29.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Nebraska).
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -29.4 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.0 | -2949 |
| FPI | -28.5 | -3564 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (12 books) | -28.5 | -2094 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +28.5 | -105 | +144 | -10.2% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2296 | +3549 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -29.4 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at CincinnatiCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Cincinnati by 36.5, our data says Cincinnati by 33.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 36.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +3021 3¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F, 41% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $156 available; Under 60.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2565 |
| Massey | rates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -36.5 | -3570 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Carolina Catamounts +36.5 | -110 | +122 | -7.2% |
| Moneyline | Western Carolina Catamounts ML | +3361 | +8686 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 79°F, 27% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -258 |
| Massey | rates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -20.5 | -966 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds ML | +920 | +807 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Kennesaw State by 9, our data says Kennesaw State by 9Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 9. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.2 points since it opened, from 50.2 to 54.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -335 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -112 | 54 -116 | -366 | +281 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -738 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -274 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +260 | +262 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Tennessee by 12.5, our data says Tennessee by 11.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 13 to Tennessee by 12.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 55 -115 | +350 | -480 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 +101 48¢ | — | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -103 | 55 -115 | +382 | -537 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -11.5, only $106 available; Over 55.5, only $102 available; Under 55.5, only $287 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.0 | +608 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +244 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +366 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +350 | +349 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Illinois State by 3.5, our data says Illinois State by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 3.5, we say Illinois State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 35% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | rates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | +3.5 | +156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois State Redbirds -3.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Illinois State Redbirds ML | -180 | -147 | -4.8% |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Missouri State by 20.5, our data says Missouri State by 17.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F, 35% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -320 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -20.5 | -1036 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +20.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +981 | +744 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 43, our data says South Carolina by 42.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 43.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $200 available; Under 55.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Towson | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Towson | |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Towson and South Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -43.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Towson Tigers +43.0 | -110 | -168 | +10.3% |
The line is -43.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at WisconsinCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmNo betmarket says Wisconsin by 37, our data says Wisconsin by 40Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $408 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -37.0 | -4066 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wisconsin Badgers -37.0 | -110 | -216 | +16.0% |
| Moneyline | Wisconsin Badgers ML | -10850 | -29978 | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 ptNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 20.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1495 | +797 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $14 available; Under 55.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -430 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -652 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -865 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5 | -110 | +118 | -6.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +874 | +940 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 32, our data says Coastal Carolina by 28.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 32.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -928 |
| Massey | rates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -32.0 | -2338 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fordham Rams +32.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams ML | +2400 | +3563 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -32.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSUCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 53.5 · getting 2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 36.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 35 to LSU by 36. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -116 | 56 -112 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward LSU).
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4206 |
| FPI | -32.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -34.0 | — |
| Massey | -3.5 | -148 |
| Market (12 books) | -36.0 | -4536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +36.0 | -110 | +135 | -9.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4900 | +10163 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -117 | 49 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -111 | 49.5 -110 | -123 | +106 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Across the books: opened -0.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Texas).
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +129 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -130 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 | -103 | +103 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +107 | +113 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 53.5should be 52.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26.5 -110 | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +27 -111 | 53.5 -113 | +1330 | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +27.5, now +27.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).
TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1701 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1669 |
| Sagarin | +27.5 | +3118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1452 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +143 | -11.2% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2428 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -103 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.
The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmUnder 57should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -110 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -109 | 57.5 +101 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -29.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Auburn).
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -609 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -33.0 | -2827 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +2500 | +4081 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -108 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 4.7.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.3 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole MissCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmNo betmarket says Ole Miss by 47.5, our data says Ole Miss by 45.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 61. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -47.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47.5 -102 | 60.5 -114 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.5 | — |
| FPI | -35.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -5.0 | -175 |
| Market (10 books) | -47.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 60.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +47.5 | -110 | -189 | +13.0% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +9950 | +88130 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at BaylorCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 38, our data says Baylor by 36.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 38.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $102 available; Under 55.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -38.0 | -4080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Prairie View A&M Panthers +38.0 | -110 | +144 | -11.4% |
| Moneyline | Prairie View A&M Panthers ML | +4405 | +15341 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -38.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo betmarket says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 23Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $104 available; Under 53.5, only $159 available; Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -480 |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -27.0 | -1774 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +27.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +1716 | +1638 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 18. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -102 | 45 -113 | -1063 | +632 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -457 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -451 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.0 | -687 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.0 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +668 | +655 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -107 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Montana State by 4, our data says Montana State by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4, we say Montana State by 5.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +233 |
| Massey | rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | +4.0 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana State Bobcats -4.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Montana State Bobcats ML | -198 | -176 | -2.6% |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 30.5, our data says USC by 29Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 30.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 59.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -114 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -108 | 60 -103 | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2334 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2649 |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4325 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -30.5 | -2770 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5 | -106 | +140 | -9.8% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +3000 | +4105 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West VirginiaCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Massey | rates UT Martin and West Virginia on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -39.5 | -4570 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.
Kalshi thin: Monmouth Hawks ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Massey | rates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -26.5 | -1394 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F, 45% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $204 available; Under 60.5, only $254 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Massey | rates Southern and Houston on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -51.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCUCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Massey | rates Grambling and TCU on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José StateCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Massey | rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -20.5 | -1100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii RainbowCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-06 12:32; total has moved down 1.3.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5.Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmColts +3.5should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 ptsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -121 53¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 47.5 -117 | +156 | -178 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +152 | +144 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8A Little Nasty · BrownsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 -111 | -395 | +319 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -192 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -287 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -339 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +320 | +278 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Cardinals too: market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +118 | 47 -111 | -475 | +373 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers -9.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -165 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -368 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -398 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +10.0 | -110 | -124 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +393 | +316 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmOver 48should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 47.5 -121 53¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +110 | 47.5 -116 | +140 | -159 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants +2.5, only $382 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Matt Hennessy (C, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +138 | +130 | +1.4% |
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 39should be 41.2 · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 39.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -107 | 39 -111 | -117 | +104 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 39.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets +1.5, only $400 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -139 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans -1.0 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -122 | -121 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 47should be 46.3 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +114 | 47.5 +103 | +145 | -165 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $179 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +110 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +140 | +133 | +1.3% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 49.5should be 48.8 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -105 | 49.5 -111 | -321 | +267 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Dillon Radunz (G, Saints), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -214 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +260 | +236 | +2.0% |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +7.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 45should be 45.8 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 45.0. Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 45 -106 | +101 | -114 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 45.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bills).
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -107 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +105 |
| Sagarin | pk | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +100 | +108 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 46should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 45.5 | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -113 | 46 -111 | -123 | +109 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $71 available; Over 45.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -169 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +114 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +102 | +114 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBuccaneers to winour data says 39 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -103 | 50 -111 | -202 | +175 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · +175. A price bet, Buccaneers loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -184 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +175 | +158 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmDolphins +3.5should be Dolphins +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 40.5 -114 | -188 | +164 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Dolphins +3.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -153 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +155 | +150 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmFalcons +3.5should be Falcons +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 42.5 -105 | -181 | +159 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Falcons +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 28% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +3.5, only $319 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out, already in the ratings: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.
Also out: Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Storm Norton (OT, Falcons) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -149 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +155 | +152 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -229 68¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -105 | 44.5 -103 | -224 | +193 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Commanders).
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +5.5, only $212 available; Washington Commanders ML, only $221 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -162 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -196 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.5% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -225 | -177 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Washington Commanders since 09-06 15:31.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL mon 14 sep, 7:15 pmUnder 44should be 42.7 · getting 1.1 pts · was 43A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 44.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +107 | 44 -105 | -145 | +128 |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 49% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $35 available; Over 43.5, only $486 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -146 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 40.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +125 | +138 | -2.4% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
Every call the board made, graded on what it said at kickoff. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Sunday September 6
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSaturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Scoreboard
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How it's going
It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
We read 101 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 18 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.
What's changed since tue 8 sep, 10:24 pm
- MovedBuffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers price moved from -112 to -120.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
- → 1.0Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebelstoward Ole Miss Rebelswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 4 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 111954 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.75 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38 | 2.97 |
| BetOnline.ag | 75 | 0.96 |
| LowVig.ag | 72 | 0.92 |
| BetMGM | 69 | 0.86 |
| DraftKings | 87 | 0.82 |
| MyBookie.ag | 67 | 0.75 |
| Bovada | 71 | 0.70 |
| BetUS | 69 | 0.69 |
| FanDuel | 142 | 0.69 |
| TOM | 68 | 0.60 |
| Pinnacle | 70 | 0.58 |
| Caesars | 81 | 0.56 |
| BetRivers | 135 | 0.54 |
| Fanatics | 137 | 0.41 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated yesterday
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
- nfelo updated yesterday