Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 12:52 am · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:18am✓MasseySun 12:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 142 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pm✓FPISat 1:01pm✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 8:05am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 23 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Eagles at TitansTitans +7.5should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 ptsNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.3%) · TOM +7.5 at -116 (3.3%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +7.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -116 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Jaguars at BroncosJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +3 at -113 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -118 (-0.6%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (-0.7%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-1.4%).Vikings at BearsUnder 47.5weather: 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (3.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 48 at -110 (2.9%) · Caesars 47.5 at -105 (2.4%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.9%) · TOM 47.5 at -110 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins by a hair.

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.

Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 1 sneaky; the strongest is Jaguars +3 (Jaguars at Broncos) at 0.4% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.

If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Moved closer since the 12:47am build

Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 12:47am build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.

Today

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL 12:00pm

Titans +7.5

should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.3% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 7.5TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 61.6 pts our side

FPI

Eagles by 52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Eagles by 52.3 pts our side

Massey

Eagles by 6.51.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eagles by 70.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39TOM

The Four

Massey

44.55.5 pts over the market

FPI

40.81.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.63.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38.5 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	39 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -103	+262	-315

All 24 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	39 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+265	-345
BetAnything	+7 -110	39 -110	+260	-330
BetMGM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	+270	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+274	-340
betPARX	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+265	-345
BetRivers	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+265	-345
BetUS	+7.5 -120	39.5 -110	+275	-340
Bovada	+7 -110	39.5 -115	+260	-320
Caesars	+7 -109	39.5 -109	+270	-335
Courtside	—	60.5 -6611	+267	-316
DraftKings	+7 -105	39.5 -110	+260	-325
Fanatics	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-340
FanDuel	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+280	-350
Fliff	+7.5 -120	39.5 -115	+280	-395
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -114	39 -107	+274	-340
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+270	-360
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -103	+262	-315
ReBet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+280	-350
theScore Bet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+290	-380

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.3%) · TOM +7.5 at -116 (3.3%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Titans to win · +280 (25¢) at Kalshi

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Titans loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Titans to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +280 (3.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM +270 (2.9%) · Fanatics or TOM +265 (2.5%) · DraftKings +260 (2.1%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 39 at -110 (1.9%) · Caesars 39.5 at -109 (0.5%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 39.5 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 51¢ (-0.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.0	+206
FPI	+5.0	+184
Sagarin	+5.0	+188
Massey	+6.5	+216
Market (22 books)	+7.5	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+280	+235	+3.6%
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.5	-116	-132	+3.3%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.8 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL 3:05pm

Jaguars +3

should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at Caesars

A Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At -113 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 2.5TOM, -119

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 11.7 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 35.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Broncos by 11.6 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 13.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 20.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.31.2 pts under the market

FPI

423.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.12.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -119	45.5 -108	-152	+134

All 24 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetAnything	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-3 -102	45.5 -108	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+133
betPARX	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetRivers	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetUS	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-3 -107	45.5 -110	-150	+127
Courtside	—	52.5 -248	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -102	45.5 -108	-155	+130
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-148	+126
Fliff	-2.5 -125	45.5 -110	-155	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+130
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	45.5 -107	-153	+133
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-155	+126
Pinnacle	-2.5 -119	45.5 -108	-152	+134
ReBet	-3 -110	45 -110	-152	+129
theScore Bet	-3 -105	45.5 -105	-150	+130

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -113 at Caesars

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +3 at -113 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -118 (-0.6%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (-0.7%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +128 (42¢) at Kalshi

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +130 (0.3%) · Kalshi or TOM +129 (0.1%) · Caesars or FanDuel +127 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 45.5 at 50¢ (-0.2%) · Caesars 45.5 at -109 (-0.6%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 45.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -113 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 27% chance of rain.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	+3.0	+139
Sagarin	-1.0	-113
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-113	-115	+0.4%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+128	+128	-0.1%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL 12:00pm

Under 47.5

weather: 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 8.5

FPI

Bears by 8.5

Sagarin

Bears by 6

Massey

Bears by 3.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 5.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

50.93.4 pts over the market

FPI

41.56 pts under the market

Weather

-4.520 mph wind, 71% chance of rain, takes 4.5 points off

Nasty Number

41.75.8 pts under the market

Under 47.5 is a weather call. 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -106	48.5 +103	-213	+185

All 24 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+181 34¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-230	+185
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-220	+180
BetMGM	-4.5 -110	48 -108	-220	+180
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+183
betPARX	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-230	+185
BetRivers	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-230	+185
BetUS	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+183
Bovada	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-220	+180
Caesars	-4.5 -109	47.5 -115	-218	+183
Courtside	—	65.5 -934	-213	+184
DraftKings	-4.5 -118	47.5 -118	-218	+180
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-225	+185
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	47.5 -120	-220	+184
Fliff	-4.5 -115	48.5 -110	-240	+180
Hard Rock Bet	-5 -110	48 -110	-230	+190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5 -110	48 -110	-230	+190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5 -110	48 -110	-230	+190
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -103	47.5 -107	-215	+183
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-224	+178
Pinnacle	-4.5 -106	48.5 +103	-213	+185
ReBet	-5 -110	48 -110	-220	+184
theScore Bet	-5.5 -105	48.5 -110	-215	+180

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · Caesars -4.5 at -109 (-1.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -118 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -215 at TOM

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Bears to win): Kalshi 66¢ (-0.9%) · TOM -215 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -218 (-1.9%) · Fanatics -225 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 4.5 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (3.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 48 at -110 (2.9%) · Caesars 47.5 at -105 (2.4%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.9%) · TOM 47.5 at -110 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 66°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Vikings).

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.3 consensus.

theScore Bet still has Vikings +5.5 while Pinnacle is at Bears by 4.5.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-202
FPI	-8.5	-213
Sagarin	-6.0	-152
Massey	-3.5	-116
Market (22 books)	-4.5	-206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	41.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -4.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-215	-200	-1.6%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-13 18:15; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals

NFL 3:25pm

Cardinals +3.5

should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Seahawks by 4TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 51.2 pts against us

FPI

Cardinals by 4.58.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 6.52.4 pts against us

Massey

Seahawks by 1.52.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 40.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Cardinals. nfelo at Seahawks by 5 and Sagarin at Seahawks by 6.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.94.4 pts over the market

FPI

37.92.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 +101	+169	-193

All 24 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetAnything	+4 -115	41 -110	+170	-200
BetMGM	+4 -112	41 -105	+170	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+174	-200
betPARX	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetRivers	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetUS	+4 -115	41 -110	+170	-200
Bovada	+3.5 -110	41 -110	+165	-195
Caesars	+4 -114	40.5 -118	+174	-209
Courtside	—	56.5 -1261	+174	-200
DraftKings	+3.5 +100	40.5 -115	+170	-205
Fanatics	+3.5 -105	41 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -120	41.5 -102	+176	-210
Fliff	+3.5 -110	41.5 -105	+170	-220
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	41 -110	+175	-210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	41 -110	+175	-210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	41 -110	+175	-210
LowVig.ag	+4 -113	40.5 -110	+174	-200
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	41 -110	+173	-216
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 +101	+169	-193
ReBet	+4 -110	41.5 -110	+173	-206
theScore Bet	+4 -110	40.5 -120	+180	-215

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cardinals): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (2.2%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.0%) · BetMGM +4 at -112 (0.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (0.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -120 (0.4%).

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +170 at DraftKings

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Cardinals to win): FanDuel +176 (2.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +174 (2.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +170 (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 41 at -105 (-0.2%) · TOM 40.5 at -113 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 41 at -110 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 2.0 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+251
FPI	-4.5	-127
Sagarin	+6.5	+294
Massey	+1.5	+162
Market (22 books)	+4.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	41.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +3.5	+100	-109	+2.2%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+170	+158	+1.7%
Total	Over 40.5	-113	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL 12:00pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +8

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 9TOM, -102

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 8.50.5 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 9.50.4 pts against us

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 7.51.4 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 63 pts our side

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 8.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Browns. FPI at Buccaneers by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.53 pts over the market

FPI

40.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +109	42 +103	-379	+308

All 24 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetAnything	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-420	+320
BetMGM	-7.5 -110	41.5 -108	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+340
betPARX	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetRivers	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetUS	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-7.5 -110	41.5 -105	-400	+300
Caesars	-7.5 -109	41.5 -107	-420	+325
Courtside	—	62.5 -6611	-426	+350
DraftKings	-7.5 -112	41.5 -110	-440	+340
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	41 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 +100	41.5 -102	-450	+350
Fliff	-8.5 -105	41.5 -110	-495	+335
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	41 -110	-475	+350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8.5 -110	41 -110	-475	+350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8.5 -110	41 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-9 +105	41.5 -107	-435	+340
MyBookie.ag	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-9 +109	42 +103	-379	+308
ReBet	-8 -110	41.5 -109	-410	+320
theScore Bet	-8 -110	41.5 -105	-450	+340

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): TOM +9 at -118 (1.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +7.5 at -107 (0.1%) · Caesars +7.5 at -109 (-0.3%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -122 (-0.3%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +350 at FanDuel

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +350 (3.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +340 (3.0%) · Kalshi 22¢ (2.6%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +325 (2.2%).

Off the band

the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (1.0%) · Fanatics 41 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars or Kalshi 41.5 at -107 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 41.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-287
FPI	-9.5	-321
Sagarin	-7.5	-253
Massey	-6.0	-207
Market (22 books)	-9.0	-416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-118	-123	+1.1%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+350	+289	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers

NFL 3:25pm

49ers -13.5

should be 49ers -13.5 at Kalshi

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 13TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.51.3 pts against us

FPI

49ers by 15.52.3 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 14.51.5 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 9.53.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

49ers by 13.50.4 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean 49ers. nfelo at 49ers by 11.5 and Massey at 49ers by 9.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

45.30.3 pts over the market

FPI

46.51.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

45.90.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -103	45.5 +102	-1032	+694

All 24 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -112	45 -110	-1000	+600
BetAnything	-13 -115	45 -110	-1100	+700
BetMGM	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1000	+675
BetOnline.ag	-13 -115	45 -105	-1050	+686
betPARX	-13.5 -112	45 -110	-1000	+600
BetRivers	-13.5 -112	45 -110	-1000	+600
BetUS	-13.5 -110	45 -105	-1000	+650
Bovada	-13.5 -105	45 -110	-1100	+650
Caesars	-13.5 -106	44.5 -115	-1000	+650
Courtside	—	63.5 -2356	-898	+652
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-13.5 -105	45.5 -102	-1000	+660
Fliff	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-1290	+685
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
LowVig.ag	-13 -105	45 -102	-1050	+686
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1122	+670
Pinnacle	-13.5 -103	45.5 +102	-1032	+694
ReBet	-13.5 -120	44.5 -110	-952	+650
theScore Bet	-13.5 -105	44.5 -105	-1200	+700

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -13.5 at 49¢ (0.8%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Caesars -13.5 at -106 (0.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · TOM -13 at -115 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -1032

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -950 (-5.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -1000 (-6.2%) · Fanatics -1100 (-6.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 45 at -105 (-0.1%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -102 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 45 at -110 (-1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-431
FPI	-15.5	-731
Sagarin	-14.5	-642
Massey	-9.5	-317
Market (22 books)	-13.0	-913

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -13.5	-103	-106	+0.8%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-1032	-556	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL 3:05pm

Raiders +6.5

should be Raiders +6.5 at FanDuel · was +9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 60.5 pts our side

FPI

Chargers by 6.5on the market

Sagarin

Chargers by 81.6 pts against us

Massey

Chargers by 4.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chargers by 6.50.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Raiders. Sagarin at Chargers by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

39.54 pts under the market

FPI

40.53 pts under the market

Nasty Number

403.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+237
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -118	-305	+254

All 23 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+237
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+240
BetMGM	-6.5 -125	43.5 -110	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+243
betPARX	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetUS	-7 +100	43.5 -110	-305	+253
Bovada	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-6.5 -112	43.5 -113	-310	+245
Courtside	—	57.5 -816	-297	+251
DraftKings	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-325	+260
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-320	+250
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+245
Fliff	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-320	+235
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+250
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -108	43.5 -105	-297	+243
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	43.5 -110	-310	+240
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -118	-305	+254
ReBet	-6.5 -120	43.5 -110	-300	+246
theScore Bet	-6.5 -110	43.5 -110	-320	+260

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +7 at -115 (2.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +6.5 at -105 (2.1%) · Caesars or BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (1.4%).

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +260 at DraftKings

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Raiders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +260 (3.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +250 (2.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel +245 (2.3%) · TOM +237 (1.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 43.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -107 (1.1%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (0.4%) · TOM 43.5 at -112 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-207
FPI	-6.5	-216
Sagarin	-8.0	-271
Massey	-4.5	-178
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-284

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+260	+220	+3.5%
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.5	-105	-114	+2.1%
Total	Under 43.5	-112	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL 12:00pm

Saints +8.5

should be Saints +9 · giving up 0.5 pts at Caesars · was +8.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 9TOM, +101

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 9.50.7 pts against us

FPI

Ravens by 8.50.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Ravens by 9on the market

Massey

Ravens by 8.50.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ravens by 90.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Saints. nfelo at Ravens by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Saints is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

47.52.5 pts over the market

FPI

46.21.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.91.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 -106	45.5 -107	-438	+348

All 24 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8 -114	46 -112	-435	+325
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	45 -110	-420	+320
BetMGM	-8 -118	45.5 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+330
betPARX	-8 -114	46 -112	-435	+325
BetRivers	-8.5 -107	46 -112	-435	+325
BetUS	-9 +100	45 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-9 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+335
Caesars	-8.5 -109	45.5 -110	-400	+320
Courtside	—	58.5 -545	-364	+303
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	45.5 -110	-380	+300
Fanatics	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -105	46.5 -104	-430	+340
Fliff	-8.5 -105	46.5 -105	-480	+325
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-9 +100	45 -107	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-429	+320
Pinnacle	-9 -106	45.5 -107	-438	+348
ReBet	-8 -110	45.5 -110	-400	+320
theScore Bet	-8 -110	45.5 -115	-400	+300

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars +8.5 at -109 (1.8%) · Fanatics +8.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +8.5 at -115 (0.5%) · BetMGM +8 at -110 (0.3%) · TOM +9 at -121 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +340 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Saints to win): FanDuel +340 (2.5%) · Kalshi 22¢ (2.1%) · Fanatics +325 (1.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +320 (1.4%) · TOM +310 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 45 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -104 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 28% chance of rain.

Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.8 consensus.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.5	-336
FPI	-8.5	-283
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-8.5	-292
Market (22 books)	-9.0	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +8.5	-109	-117	+1.8%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+340	+296	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.8 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.6 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL 12:00pm

Texans -2.5

should be Texans -2.5 at FanDuel

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 2.5TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2.5on the market

FPI

Texans by 2.5on the market

Sagarin

Texans by 2.5on the market

Massey

Texans by 41.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Texans. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

51.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

46.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.93.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	45.5 -108	-152	+127
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +105	45.5 -105	-152	+134

All 24 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	45.5 -108	-152	+127
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	46 -110	-148	+120
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	45.5 -108	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -117	45.5 -108	-152	+132
betPARX	-2.5 -114	46 -110	-148	+120
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	46 -110	-148	+120
BetUS	-2 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-160	+135
Caesars	-2.5 -113	45.5 -112	-152	+128
Courtside	—	63.5 -1226	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	45.5 -110	-142	+120
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	45.5 -114	-138	+118
Fliff	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-140	+120
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-140	+120
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-140	+120
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -113	45.5 -105	-152	+132
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+122
Pinnacle	-3 +105	45.5 -105	-152	+134
ReBet	-3 -109	45.5 -110	-145	+123
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 -105	-145	+125

Marked: best for Texans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texans): FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (-0.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -2.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · TOM -2.5 at -117 (-1.3%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -118 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

Texans to win · -138 at FanDuel

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53. Where, best first (Texans to win): FanDuel -138 (-0.0%) · DraftKings -142 (-0.7%) · BetMGM -145 (-1.2%) · Fanatics -150 (-2.0%) · Caesars or TOM -152 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 45.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi, BetMGM or TOM 45.5 at -107 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Caesars 45.5 at -112 (0.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -114 (-0.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texans -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-134
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-2.5	-134
Massey	-4.0	-160
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans -2.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-138	-138	-0.0%
Total	Over 45.5	-108	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Panthers by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2

FPI

Panthers by 4.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Falcons by 2

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.55 pts under the market

Nasty Number

440.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +107	43.5 -107	+134	-151

All 24 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	43.5 -112	+120	-143
BetAnything	+3 -120	43.5 -110	+130	-150
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-150
betPARX	+3 -117	43.5 -112	+120	-143
BetRivers	+3 -117	43.5 -112	+120	-143
BetUS	+2 +100	43.5 -110	+129	-150
Bovada	+3 -120	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Caesars	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-148
Courtside	—	60.5 -1085	+133	-152
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-155
Fanatics	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+124	-146
Fliff	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +105	43.5 -107	+130	-150
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-153
Pinnacle	+2.5 +107	43.5 -107	+134	-151
ReBet	+3 -120	43.5 -110	+127	-150
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	43.5 -105	+130	-150

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +2.5 · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Falcons): Kalshi, DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at +101 (-1.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +125 at Caesars

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +130 (-0.5%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics, TOM, Kalshi or FanDuel +125 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 38. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 43.5 at 50¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Panthers).

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	-109
FPI	+4.5	+126
Sagarin	PK	-138
Massey	-2.0	-171
Market (22 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +2.5	+100	+107	-1.7%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+125	+133	-1.5%
Total	Over 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 13:02; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 3TOM, -106

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 3.5

FPI

Packers by 2.5

Sagarin

Packers by 4.5

Massey

Packers by 2.5

Nasty Number

Packers by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

47.33.3 pts over the market

FPI

45.71.7 pts over the market

Weather

-1.712 mph wind, 75% chance of rain, takes 1.7 points off

Nasty Number

44.80.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -106	44 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3 -104	45 -102	+144	-164

All 24 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -106	44 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -118	44.5 -113	+160	-195
BetAnything	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+150	-170
BetMGM	+3.5 -112	44.5 -108	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3 -107	44 -110	+149	-170
betPARX	+3.5 -118	44.5 -113	+160	-195
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	44.5 -113	+160	-195
BetUS	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+3 -110	44.5 -110	+145	-170
Caesars	+3 -103	44 -110	+153	-182
Courtside	+3.5 -110	68.5 -6611	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -110	44.5 -110	+154	-185
Fanatics	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	44.5 -114	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+150	-195
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3 -102	44 -107	+149	-170
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+147	-182
Pinnacle	+3 -104	45 -102	+144	-164
ReBet	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+152	-180
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+150	-175

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -3.0 · -114 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (-2.8%) · TOM -3 at -114 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -3 at -115 (-3.5%) · Caesars -3 at -118 (-4.2%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -172 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Packers to win): TOM -172 (-3.9%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -175 (-4.3%) · FanDuel -178 (-4.7%) · Caesars -182 (-5.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -185 (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 44.5 at 49¢ (0.1%) · Caesars or TOM 44 at -110 (0.0%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -114 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +5.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Jets).

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+155
FPI	+2.5	+136
Sagarin	+4.5	+168
Massey	+2.5	+135
Market (22 books)	+3.0	+148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -3.0	-114	+100	-3.3%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-172	-146	-3.9%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward New York Jets since 09-13 18:32; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5.5

FPI

Patriots by 5

Sagarin

Patriots by 5.5

Massey

Patriots by 4.5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 5.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

41.3on the market

Weather

-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.81.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 -110	42 +102	-249	+213

All 24 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-5.5 -112	42 -109	-240	+195
BetAnything	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+200
BetMGM	-5.5 -108	41.5 -108	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+203
betPARX	-5.5 -112	42 -109	-240	+195
BetRivers	-5.5 -112	42 -109	-240	+195
BetUS	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-235	+200
Bovada	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250	+210
Caesars	-5.5 -110	41.5 -109	-235	+194
Courtside	—	64.5 -5914	-220	+189
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	41.5 -108	-230	+190
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-4.5 -120	41.5 -110	-245	+200
Fliff	-4.5 -115	41.5 -110	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250	+200
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250	+200
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250	+200
LowVig.ag	-5 -105	41.5 -107	-245	+203
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-246	+196
Pinnacle	-5.5 -110	42 +102	-249	+213
ReBet	-5 -110	41.5 -109	-236	+196
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	41.5 -105	-230	+195

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi -5.5 at 49¢ (-3.4%) · TOM -5 at -110 (-3.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-4.6%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -120 (-4.8%) · Caesars or Fanatics -5.5 at -110 (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -240 (69¢) at Kalshi

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings -230 (-4.0%) · Caesars or BetMGM -235 (-4.5%) · Kalshi or TOM -239 (-4.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -245 (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars 41.5 at -112 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 61°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Patriots).

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-186
FPI	-5.0	-183
Sagarin	-5.5	-186
Massey	-4.5	-166
Market (22 books)	-5.0	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -5.0	-110	+106	-3.9%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-240	-191	-4.9%
Total	Under 41.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL 3:25pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 4TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 4

FPI

Cowboys by 4.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 4.5

Massey

Cowboys by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

Massey

53.12.1 pts over the market

FPI

50.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-4 -108	51 -109	-204	+177

All 24 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -107	51 -107	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4 -110	51 -110	-210	+175
BetMGM	-4 -110	51 -110	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+177
betPARX	-4.5 -107	51 -107	-215	+170
BetRivers	-4.5 -107	51 -107	-215	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+175
Bovada	-4 -110	51 -110	-200	+170
Caesars	-4 -111	50.5 -117	-209	+175
Courtside	—	60.5 -405	-213	+184
DraftKings	-3.5 -120	50.5 -120	-218	+180
Fanatics	-4 -110	51 -110	-200	+165
FanDuel	-4.5 -102	50.5 -114	-200	+168
Fliff	-4.5 -105	50.5 -120	-225	+170
Hard Rock Bet	-4 -110	51 -105	-210	+175
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-4 -110	51 -105	-210	+175
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-4 -110	51 -105	-210	+175
LowVig.ag	-4 -105	51 -107	-205	+177
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	51 -110	-202	+162
Pinnacle	-4 -108	51 -109	-204	+177
ReBet	-4.5 -110	51 -109	-208	+175
theScore Bet	-4 -110	50.5 -115	-200	+170

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cowboys): Kalshi -4.5 at 48¢ (-3.8%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -102 (-4.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -4 at -110 (-5.1%) · Caesars -4 at -111 (-5.3%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -120 (-5.8%).

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · -205 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): FanDuel or Fanatics -200 (-4.5%) · TOM -205 (-5.1%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -208 (-5.4%) · DraftKings -218 (-6.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 49¢ (-1.8%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.9%) · Caesars 50.5 at -117 (-1.9%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -120 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
FPI	-4.5	-177
Sagarin	-4.5	-172
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (22 books)	-4.0	-196

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys -4.5	+101	+117	-3.8%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	-205	-164	-5.1%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL 7:20pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 6, our data says Chiefs by 6.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 6TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 7.5

FPI

Chiefs by 8.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 8

Massey

Chiefs by 6.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 6.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.11.6 pts over the market

FPI

45.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+230
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-6 +103	47 +103	-269	+227

All 24 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+230
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Bally Bet	-6 -115	46.5 -109	-315	+250
BetAnything	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-295	+235
BetMGM	—	46 -110	-285	+230
BetOnline.ag	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+237
betPARX	-6 -115	46.5 -109	-315	+250
BetRivers	-6 -115	46.5 -109	-315	+250
BetUS	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+240
Bovada	-5.5 -110	46 +100	-275	+225
Caesars	-6 -107	46.5 -107	-290	+230
Courtside	—	58.5 -459	-278	+236
DraftKings	-6 -108	46.5 +100	-270	+220
Fanatics	-6 -110	46 -110	-280	+225
FanDuel	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-280	+230
Fliff	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-320	+230
Hard Rock Bet	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-300	+240
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-300	+240
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-300	+240
LowVig.ag	-6 -105	46.5 -102	-290	+237
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	46 -110	-297	+229
Pinnacle	-6 +103	47 +103	-269	+227
ReBet	-6.5 -109	46 -110	-265	+218
theScore Bet	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-270	+220

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -5.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%) · Caesars -6 at -107 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (-3.1%) · Fanatics or TOM -6 at -110 (-3.6%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -105 (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -270 at DraftKings

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -270 (-4.2%) · Kalshi 72¢ (-4.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -280 (-4.9%) · BetMGM -285 (-5.2%) · Caesars or TOM -290 (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 46.5 at +100 (0.7%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 49¢ (-0.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (-0.1%) · TOM 46.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 46.5 at -107 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 30% chance of rain.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-243
FPI	-8.5	-280
Sagarin	-8.0	-260
Massey	-6.5	-216
Market (22 books)	-6.0	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -5.5	-112	-104	-1.9%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-270	-221	-4.2%
Total	Over 46.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams

NFL tomorrow 7:15pm

No bet

market says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 7TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 8.5

FPI

Rams by 5

Sagarin

Rams by 8.5

Massey

Rams by 7.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

47.20.8 pts under the market

FPI

48.40.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.8on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+245
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7 -106	48.5 +101	-322	+275

All 24 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+245
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-7 -112	48 -113	-360	+270
BetAnything	-7 -105	48 -110	-305	+245
BetMGM	-7 -110	48 -108	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+260
betPARX	-7 -112	48 -113	-360	+270
BetRivers	-7 -112	48 -113	-360	+270
BetUS	-7 -110	47.5 -110	-315	+258
Bovada	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+270
Caesars	-7 -108	47.5 -118	-320	+250
Courtside	—	59.5 -433	-302	+256
DraftKings	-7 -108	47.5 -115	-305	+245
Fanatics	-7 -110	48 -110	-330	+260
FanDuel	-7.5 +100	47.5 -115	-330	+265
Fliff	-6.5 -125	47.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -110	48 -110	-350	+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -110	48 -110	-350	+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -110	48 -110	-350	+260
LowVig.ag	-7 -105	48 -107	-320	+260
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+260
Pinnacle	-7 -106	48.5 +101	-322	+275
ReBet	-7.5 -105	47.5 -120	-319	+260
theScore Bet	-7 -115	47.5 -115	-320	+260

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -7.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): DraftKings or Caesars -7 at -108 (-5.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 53¢ (-5.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -7 at -110 (-5.8%) · FanDuel -7.5 at +100 (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -320 at Caesars

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -305 (-4.3%) · Caesars or TOM -320 (-5.2%) · BetMGM -325 (-5.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -330 (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-1.0%) · BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars 47.5 at -118 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).

Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-278
FPI	-5.0	-179
Sagarin	-8.5	-282
Massey	-7.5	-250
Market (22 books)	-7.0	-306

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -7.0	-110	+115	-5.8%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-320	-245	-5.2%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at Packers

NFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Packers by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 10

FPI

Packers by 13

Sagarin

Packers by 8.5

Massey

Packers by 8

Nasty Number

Packers by 7.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

40.55.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.11.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢

All 11 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
betPARX	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
Caesars	-5.5 -120	46.5 -106	-295	+240
Courtside	-6.5 -113	46.5 -108	-290	+246
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	46.5 -110	-298	+240
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	45.5 -115	-275	+225
Fliff	-6.5 -110	46.5 -110	-315	+230
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	46 -110	-295	+220
ReBet	-6.5 -110	45.5 -120	-280	+230

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -5.5 · -120 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Caesars or FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -275 at FanDuel

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Packers to win): FanDuel -275 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 73¢ (-3.1%) · Caesars or DraftKings -295 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Caesars 46.5 at -114 (0.0%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-252
FPI	-13.0	-363
Sagarin	-8.5	-209
Massey	-8.0	-195
Market (10 books)	-6.5	-271

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -5.5	-120	-116	-0.8%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-275	-248	-2.0%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Sep 26

6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Iowa +4.5

should be Iowa +4.5 at DraftKings · was +5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

Massey

Michigan by 40.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Michigan by 4.50.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37.5

The Four

SP+ pace

39.92.4 pts over the market

Massey

38.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

39.11.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+159 37¢

All 7 books

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	-200 65¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
betPARX	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
BetRivers	-4.5 -112	37.5 -113	-210	+163
Courtside	-4.5 -108	37.5 -108	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	37.5 -110	-192	+160
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-228	+174

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (0.9%).

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · +165

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Iowa to win): DraftKings +160 (0.7%) · Kalshi 37¢ (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 37.5 · -110

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 37.5 at -110 (-1.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Iowa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $127 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5, only $52 available; Over 37.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Massey	-4.0	-147
Market (6 books)	-4.5	-186

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.5	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+165	+156	+1.4%
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Total	Over 37.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 25

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 27

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

Massey

Ohio State by 21

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 251.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.41.3 pts under the market

Massey

503.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.22.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois +27.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings +27.5 at -110 (1.0%) · FanDuel +26.5 at -110 (-1.4%).

Blowout line

Illinois to win · +2000 at DraftKings

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings +2000 (0.4%) · FanDuel +1600 (-0.7%).

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 2530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Massey	-21.0	-1043
Market (6 books)	-27.0	-3935

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5	-110	-114	+1.0%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	+2000	+1819	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Louisville by 13.5, our data says Louisville by 13

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

Massey

Louisville by 11.5

Nasty Number

Louisville by 130.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.211.3 pts under the market

Massey

60.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.74.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	58.5 -116 52¢	-609 85¢	—

All 3 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	58.5 -116 52¢	-609 85¢	—
Courtside	-13.5 -108	58.5 -108	-623	+487
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	58.5 -110	-650	+470

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

Wake Forest to win · +478

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings +470 (2.7%).

Off the band

the Under 58.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 60. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 52¢ (-1.2%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $32 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Massey	-11.5	-327
Market (2 books)	-13.5	-579

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML	+478	+394	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

No bet

market says Penn State by 11.5, our data says Penn State by 12.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 12.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Massey

Penn State by 17

Nasty Number

Penn State by 12.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

38.15 pts under the market

Massey

41.61.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.93.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Penn State -11.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings -11.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · FanDuel -11.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Penn State to win): DraftKings -455 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -490 (-4.1%).

Off the band

the Under 43.0 · -110

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -108 (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Massey	-17.0	-621
Market (7 books)	-11.5	-452

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -11.5	-105	+100	-1.2%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-455	-376	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 11.5, our data says Alabama by 12

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

FPI

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

Massey

Alabama by 13

Nasty Number

Alabama by 120.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

41.310.2 pts under the market

Massey

51.4on the market

Nasty Number

46.45.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	-11.5 -116 52¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-490 82¢	—

All 4 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	-11.5 -116 52¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-490 82¢	—
Courtside	-11.5 -108	51.5 -108	-468	+381
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	51.5 -110	-485	+370
MyBookie.ag	—	51.5 -110	-526	+350

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -11.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings -11.5 at -110 (-4.7%) · Kalshi -11.5 at 52¢ (-6.0%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -476

We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -485 (-5.5%).

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 54.5 at 55¢ (3.4%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (0.3%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $258 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Massey	-13.0	-388
Market (3 books)	-11.5	-444

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5	-110	+110	-4.7%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-476	-342	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says USC by 1.5, our data says USC by 0.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 1.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 0.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →

Market

USC by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

Massey

Oregon by 3

Nasty Number

USC by 0.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

63.5

The Four

SP+ pace

60.62.9 pts under the market

Massey

62.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.52 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	—	63.5 -121 53¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢

All 6 books

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	—	63.5 -121 53¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -112	63.5 -112	-125	+104
betPARX	-1.5 -112	63.5 -112	-125	+104
BetRivers	-1.5 -113	63.5 -113	-127	+102
Courtside	-1.5 -108	63.5 -108	-116	+100
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	63.5 -110	-118	-102

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · +101

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -102 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 53¢ (-6.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 63.5 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 63.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 63.5 at 53¢ (-3.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +1.5, only $6 available; Oregon Ducks -1.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 0.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Massey	+3.0	+135
Market (5 books)	-1.5	-112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	63.5	61.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks +1.5	-110	-105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	+101	+106	-1.2%
Total	Under 63.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Sep 27

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 3

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 1.5

FPI

Panthers by 2

Sagarin

Panthers by 1

Massey

Browns by 2.5

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5

The Four

Massey

46.26.7 pts over the market

FPI

40.10.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.13.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetRivers	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetUS	+3 -110	40 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -114	39.5 -109	+125	-148
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	40.5 -110	+120	-142
FanDuel	+3 -112	39.5 -105	+130	-154
LowVig.ag	+3 -110	38.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	39.5 -110	+120	-154
ReBet	+2.5 +100	39.5 -110	+123	-151

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): FanDuel +3 at -112 (-1.1%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +130 at FanDuel

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +130 (-1.3%) · Caesars or Kalshi +125 (-2.3%) · DraftKings +120 (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (1.0%) · Caesars 39.5 at -109 (0.1%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -110 (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+120
FPI	+2.0	+127
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (11 books)	+3.0	+137

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+130	+137	-1.3%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 0.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Steelers by 2

Nasty Number

Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.52.6 pts over the market

FPI

44.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.50.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetUS	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	45.5 -115	+112	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -114	46.5 -105	+110	-130
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-138
ReBet	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +114 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Steelers to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +110 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -105 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+103
FPI	+1.0	+113
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+114	+128	-2.8%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

Texans by 1.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2

Massey

Texans by 1

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

51.16.5 pts over the market

FPI

43.90.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetUS	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -106	44.5 -110	+119	-141
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+122	-144
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	45 -110	+114	-146
ReBet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -120	+116	-142

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-3.1%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +118 (44¢) at Kalshi

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Colts to win): FanDuel +122 (-2.1%) · Caesars or Kalshi +119 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +114 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+127
FPI	+1.5	+122
Sagarin	+2.0	+125
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+130

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +2.5	-105	+107	-2.9%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+118	+133	-2.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 4

Sagarin

Jaguars by 1.5

Massey

Jaguars by 2.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

43.72.1 pts under the market

FPI

45.40.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.51.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetUS	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -109	45.5 -114	-132	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	46.5 -105	-132	+112
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-137	+107
ReBet	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-134	+110

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-5.4%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings +114 (-3.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel +112 (-4.1%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.

New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-114
FPI	-4.0	-163
Sagarin	-1.5	-122
Massey	-2.5	-142
Market (11 books)	-2.5	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +2.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+110	+132	-4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 8.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10

Sagarin

Chiefs by 10.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

43.21.3 pts under the market

FPI

43.11.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.11.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetRivers	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetUS	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-480
DraftKings	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+350	-455
FanDuel	+8.5 -105	44.5 -110	+430	-590
LowVig.ag	+8.5 -105	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-549
ReBet	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+380	-526

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-6.7%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-7.8%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -480 at Caesars

We make it 75 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -455 (-7.5%) · Caesars -480 (-8.2%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-10.4%) · FanDuel -590 (-11.0%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $152 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+8.5	+294
FPI	+10.0	+349
Sagarin	+10.5	+369
Massey	+4.0	+161
Market (11 books)	+8.5	+450

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -8.5	-110	+119	-6.7%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-480	-292	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 6

FPI

Giants by 7

Sagarin

Giants by 5.5

Massey

Giants by 5.5

Nasty Number

Giants by 5.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

45.62.9 pts over the market

FPI

44.41.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

452.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—

All 12 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢
Bally Bet	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—
betPARX	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetRivers	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetUS	-5.5 -115	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-5.5 -115	42.5 -110	-265	+215
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	43.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	42.5 -110	-275	+225
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -110	42 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	42.5 -110	-270	+202
ReBet	-5.5 -120	42.5 -120	-260	+206

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings -5.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · Caesars -5.5 at -115 (-5.1%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-6.1%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -250 at DraftKings

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -250 (-4.8%) · Caesars -265 (-6.0%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -275 (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 42.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-204
FPI	-7.0	-240
Sagarin	-5.5	-200
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (11 books)	-5.5	-244

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -5.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-250	-200	-4.8%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1

FPI

Commanders by 6.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1

Massey

Seahawks by 3

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

45.73.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.63.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.10.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetUS	+2.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	41.5 -114	+107	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+102	-120
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	41.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+105	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+107	-131

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Commanders): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +112

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Commanders to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-3.9%) · Caesars +107 (-4.4%) · FanDuel +102 (-5.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 39. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars 41.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.

Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+153
FPI	-6.5	-166
Sagarin	+1.0	+148
Massey	+3.0	+192
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington Commanders +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+112	+127	-3.2%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	+101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 10

FPI

49ers by 11

Sagarin

49ers by 12.5

Massey

49ers by 6.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 90.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

471.1 pts under the market

FPI

49.21.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-458 81¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-458 81¢	—
Bally Bet	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetRivers	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetUS	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-8.5 -110	48.5 -105	-500	+380
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	47.5 -110	-455	+350
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	48.5 -110	-550	+410
LowVig.ag	-8.5 -105	48.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-461	+320
ReBet	-9.5 -110	48.5 -109	-450	+330

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (49ers): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-5.4%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-6.5%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -455 (-6.4%) · Caesars -500 (-7.8%) · FanDuel -550 (-9.1%).

Off the band

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Caesars 48.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-3.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).

San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-332
FPI	-11.0	-379
Sagarin	-12.5	-472
Massey	-6.5	-219
Market (11 books)	-8.5	-438

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.5	-110	+113	-5.3%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-455	-309	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 57 in 100 · -116

A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 53.8 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 64.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 31.6 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 10.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 20.8 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Massey at Buccaneers by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.72.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.86 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.31.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-121 53¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-121 53¢	—
Bally Bet	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetRivers	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetUS	-1.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	-1.5 -110	45.5 -114	-120	+101
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	45.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	46.5 -110	-116	-102
LowVig.ag	-1 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	46 -110	-126	-101
ReBet	-1.5 -110	45.5 -120	-123	+101

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -1.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel -1.5 at -105 (2.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars -1.5 at -110 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel

We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel -116 (2.9%) · Caesars -120 (2.1%) · Kalshi 53¢ (1.8%) · DraftKings -125 (1.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.3%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-139
FPI	-6.0	-150
Sagarin	-3.0	-106
Massey	-1.0	+120
Market (11 books)	-1.5	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5	-105	-117	+2.7%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	-116	-130	+2.9%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral

No bet

market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 4

FPI

Ravens by 3

Sagarin

Ravens by 3

Massey

Ravens by 6

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

Massey

541.5 pts over the market

FPI

51.21.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.6on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-167 61¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—

All 11 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—
betPARX	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetRivers	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetUS	+3 -110	53 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -107	52.5 -109	+132	-157
DraftKings	+3 -110	52.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -105	+148	-176
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	52 -113	—	—
ReBet	+3.5 -133	52.5 -110	+128	-157

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (-2.7%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -158 at Caesars

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -155 (-1.3%) · Caesars -157 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 61¢ (-3.1%) · FanDuel -176 (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · Caesars 52.5 at -109 (-2.2%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $487 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.0	+163
FPI	+3.0	+143
Sagarin	+3.0	+146
Massey	+6.0	+214
Market (10 books)	+3.0	+147

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-158	-147	-1.7%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 4

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.83.2 pts under the market

FPI

40.94.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.33.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetRivers	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetUS	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -114	44.5 -118	-164	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-3 -115	44.5 -115	-174	+146
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	45 -110	-172	+134
ReBet	-3.5 -105	45.5 -109	-168	+137

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.4%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -3 at -115 (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -162 at DraftKings

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Saints to win): DraftKings -162 (-2.5%) · Caesars -164 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 61¢ (-3.2%) · FanDuel -174 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (0.0%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -105 (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.5	-170
Sagarin	-4.0	-158
Massey	-3.0	-147
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-110	+100	-2.4%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-162	-146	-2.5%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pm

No bet

market says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Rams by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 2

FPI

Rams by 2

Sagarin

Rams by 2

Massey

Rams by 1

Nasty Number

Rams by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

44.41.7 pts under the market

FPI

424.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.22.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetRivers	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetUS	+2.5 -105	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	46.5 -105	+114	-134
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -112	46.5 -105	+112	-132
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	45.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-137
ReBet	+2.5 -110	46.5 -109	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Broncos to win): DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi +114 (-3.8%) · FanDuel +112 (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+122
FPI	+2.0	+124
Sagarin	+2.0	+126
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +2.5	-110	+107	-4.1%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+110	+133	-4.7%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 2-3, -1.2u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.9 pts vs the close on 5 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-3-1.22 units · -24% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.9 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 6 posted picks

Open1call waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

0-2 · -2.00 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty2-167%+0.82 units3 games

Closing line value: +0.4 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-0 · +1.82 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-4 · -2.11 units

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nastiest	0-1	0.0%	-1.0 u	small sample
Nasty Pick	2-2	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	2-1	66.7%	+0.8 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	14-16	46.7%	-3.2 u
Not Nasty	124 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-19 20:02.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 33 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 35%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.46	26
FPI	10.25	80
SP+	10.80	80
The market	10.93	124
Sagarin	12.85	114

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.14	26
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.03	26
SP+	1.00	0.00	0.00	26
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.13	33

The line archive, 124 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 62 times, against it 44, and sat still 18. Our side taken at the open finished 0.66 points better than the close on average over 118 games. The close misses the final by 10.78, the open by 10.92, our raw ratings number by 13.49, Pinnacle's close by 10.73. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.90, MyBookie.ag 10.42, Pinnacle 10.73.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-2, +1.70 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.13	17
nfelo	11.26	17
Sagarin	11.73	17

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.55Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 71%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Wyoming at Central Michigan	Under	40	40	+0.0	same side
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	Over	44.5	44.5	+0.0	same side
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans	Over	46.5	46.5	+0.0	same side
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cleveland +9	9	9	+0.0	flipped
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers	Las Vegas +7	7	7	+0.0	flipped
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears	Minnesota +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	same side
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans +9	9	9	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +7	7	7	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Over	41	41	+0.0	flipped
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys	Over	50.5	50.5	+0.0	same side
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams	New York +7	7	7	+0.0	same side

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 107 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	57	14.6	17-25 (40%)	11-13 (46%)
Massey	61	13.4	14-14 (50%)	5-10 (33%)
The blend	62	13.8	14-21 (40%)	9-9 (50%)

NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	3	6.1	3-0 (100%)	—
FPI	1	18.6	—	—
The blend	3	6.7	2-0 (100%)	—

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

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For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

21 priced · 2 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 34 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

What's changed since 12:47am

MovedPhiladelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans price moved from -115 to -116.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public
→ 0.5Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverinestoward Iowa Hawkeyesagainst the public
→ 0.5South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tidetoward Alabama Crimson Tidewith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

5%Best weight on our ratings

9.25Points off per game at that weight

9.26The market on its own

65Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 34%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 65 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	51	7.80
FPI	108	9.99
SP+	106	10.19
The market	173	10.33
Sagarin	163	11.75

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	78-84	48%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 815634 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.25 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	86	1.88
LowVig.ag	204	1.44
BetOnline.ag	210	1.44
DraftKings	236	1.36
FanDuel	260	1.29
BetMGM	196	1.26
BetRivers	244	1.25
Bovada	199	1.22
Caesars	186	1.22
BetUS	155	1.15
Pinnacle	198	1.14
MyBookie.ag	159	1.13
TOM	191	1.10
Fanatics	179	1.09

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
nfelo updated 4 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 20

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.