In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Buck's Take
On paper: 10 games look like Nasty Picks. 1 side, 9 totals. Every model we run agrees on them.
Why they're not Nasty Picks yet: It's September. The ratings are mostly last year's teams plus a guess. The picks haven't been tested against real results yet. We need 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides before we trust them. So far: 0 and 0.
Betting anyway? Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52 (the models say 44) and Louisiana Tech at LSU, Under 55.5 (the models say 49).
Tomorrow
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.SMU Mustangs at Florida State SeminolesCFB tomorrow 6:30 pmNo betmarket says SMU by 3, our data says SMU by 2.5Pass
Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +109 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +111 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +215 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +125 | +131 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Wed Sep 9
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksNFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 3.5, our data says Seahawks by 3.5Pass
Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.
Also out: Aaron Smith (LB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Terrion Arnold (CB, Seahawks), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots). and 2 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -162 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -180 | -156 | -3.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Thu Sep 10
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 leans showing so far.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles RamsNFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutralLean 49ers to winour data says 40 in 100 · +162 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Alex Johnson (CB, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, 49ers).
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -165 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +162 | +150 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesCFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -53.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fri Sep 11
6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 1 lean showing so far.Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesCFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pmLean Rutgers to winour data says 44 in 100 · +144 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean Rutgers, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +137 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -198 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +173 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.5 | -152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 | -115 | -127 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +144 | +125 | +3.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmLean Over 50.5should be 51.2 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 23% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +292 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +250 |
| Market (10 books) | +6.5 | +207 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers -6.5 | -107 | -102 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | -235 | -209 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosCFB fri 11 sep, 9:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -30.0 | -2963 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -43.5 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -20.5 | -1112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sat Sep 12
47 games10 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 57.5should be 59 · getting 1.6 pts · was 56.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 59, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Opened -11.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Utah).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -246 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -243 |
| Market (10 books) | -12.5 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 62.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +367 | +346 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amMichigan +6should be Michigan +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +4.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Michigan +6.0: all 3 ratings 6.4 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.7 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -118 |
| Market (12 books) | +6.0 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +6.0 | -104 | -121 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +200 | +164 | +4.6% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amUnder 57.5should be 56 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was 60.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Under 57.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 56, 1.5 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +995 |
| Sagarin | +25.0 | +2060 |
| Market (12 books) | +22.5 | +1013 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5 | -110 | +126 | -8.1% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +998 | +1325 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 56should be 56.7 · getting 0.9 pts · was 54.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 56: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 56.7, 0.9 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 40% chance of rain.
Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -211 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UL Monroe | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +330 | +313 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmOver 57should be 58.3 · getting 1.2 pts at TOMNasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 57: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 58.3, 1.2 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 98°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +420 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +149 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +138 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +173 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 62.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +5.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +160 | +165 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 52should be 50.4 · getting 1.6 pts at TOMNasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Under 52: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 50.4, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.5 | -2684 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -2042 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | -8590 |
| Market (12 books) | -28.5 | -2092 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +28.5 | -110 | +141 | -10.9% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2296 | +3449 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 51should be 52.9 · getting 1.7 pts at TOM · was 50.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 51: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 52.9, 1.7 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 45% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -291 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +272 | +278 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 55should be 56.1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was 54.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 55: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 56.1, 1 pt of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +270 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +274 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +269 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.0 | +422 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +410 | +382 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 59should be 59.7 · getting 0.8 pts at TOM · was 57.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 59: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 59.7, 0.8 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.0 | +172 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +245 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +158 |
| Market (11 books) | +6.0 | +192 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida Atlantic Owls +6.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida Atlantic Owls ML | +180 | +185 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 ptsNasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 53.4, 2.1 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -6293 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6391 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -27247 |
| Market (11 books) | -33.0 | -3391 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0 | -110 | +156 | -13.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +3500 | +7481 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Under 56.5should be 55.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward East Carolina).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -400 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -347 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate App State | |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -284 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -9.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -335 | -292 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Texas A&M -14.5should be Texas A&M -15.5 · getting 1 ptLean Texas A&M, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15.5. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
A play at -14.0 or better.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -809 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -732 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -806 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.5 | -479 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.5 | -107 | -122 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -650 | -578 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Over 49.5should be 50.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +150 | +138 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 17.5, our data says Kansas State by 17Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -16.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -895 |
| Market (6 books) | -17.5 | -825 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +17.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +779 | +688 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 18, our data says Virginia Tech by 18Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 20% chance of rain.
Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -757 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -475 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1006 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.0 | -693 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +18.0 | -110 | +119 | -6.8% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +652 | +779 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Penn State by 23.5, our data says Penn State by 23.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1604 |
| FPI | +20.0 | +1049 |
| Sagarin | +29.5 | +4463 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.5 | +1155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +23.5 | -110 | +142 | -11.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1248 | +1680 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Purdue to winour data says 39 in 100 · +164 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.
Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +143 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +164 | +157 | +1.1% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 40, our data says Georgia by 39Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -35.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 4.3 toward Georgia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -36.0 | -13246 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6508 |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | -41331 |
| Market (10 books) | -40.0 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0 | -105 | -116 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +10000 | +22654 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 10, our data says Alabama by 10Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +302 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +10.0 | +292 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +337 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -10.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -420 | -297 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says BYU by 7.5, our data says BYU by 7.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.
Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -226 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -240 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -256 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -7.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.0% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -300 | -227 | -5.6% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean California to winour data says 45 in 100 · +135 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean California, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.
Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.5. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +133 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.0 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +135 | +122 | +2.5% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.7.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 6, our data says Illinois by 6.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F.
Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -235 | -199 | -3.6% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 18Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -950 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1469 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.0 | -657 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -1024 | -778 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.6.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Maryland -12.5should be Maryland -13.5 · getting 1 pt · was -13.5Lean Maryland, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Maryland: market says Maryland by 12.5, we say Maryland by 13.5. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -11.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +529 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +295 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +649 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +403 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | -525 | -436 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 54.9 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 24% chance of rain.
Opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Mississippi State).
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -146 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.5 | +105 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -103 | +105 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean UCF to winour data says 32 in 100 · +250 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean UCF, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -204 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -152 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UCF | |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +7.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +250 | +208 | +3.9% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says UTSA by 1, our data says UTSA by 0.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +104 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | 71.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats +1.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats ML | -108 | +106 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 64.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Washington by 26.5, our data says Washington by 26.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Washington).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2445 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -877 |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | -10809 |
| Market (6 books) | -26.5 | -1721 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +150 | -12.4% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1600 | +2609 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmNo betmarket says Vanderbilt by 20.5, our data says Vanderbilt by 21.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 31% chance of rain.
Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2097 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -587 |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3727 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -864 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5 | -113 | -150 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | -1544 | -1259 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmLean Over 55.5should be 56.1 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Boise State).
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -257 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.0 | -276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.0 | -113 | -120 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +260 | +228 | +2.7% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 7.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -125 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Florida International | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -334 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -112 | -147 | +6.6% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +310 | +229 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +105 | +126 | -4.5% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Marshall by 15, our data says Marshall by 14.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F.
Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Market (11 books) | -15.0 | -505 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 60.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0 | -115 | +107 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +495 | +514 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 52should be 52.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.5 | +757 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +217 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Sam Houston | |
| Market (12 books) | +14.0 | +454 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +14.0 | -115 | +104 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +440 | +448 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Tulane by 10.5, our data says Tulane by 11Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -11.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward South Alabama).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -535 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -375 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -340 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave -10.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | -450 | -328 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmLean San Diego State +11should be San Diego State +9.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5Lean San Diego State, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 11, we say UCLA by 9.5. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -209 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -17.0 | -698 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.0 | -372 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +350 | +274 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 54.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 56.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 33% chance of rain.
Opened -23.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Georgia Southern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2522 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1922 |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | -5310 |
| Market (11 books) | -21.0 | -875 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -21.0 | -110 | -160 | +9.2% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -1517 | -1476 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Over 41should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42Lean Iowa, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. That can change when the new numbers land.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 21% chance of rain.
A play at -13.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -709 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -457 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -910 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -494 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -700 | -515 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1, our data says a pick'emWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +228 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.0 | -102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | -106 | +102 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 26.5, our data says Texas Tech by 26.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.0 | +2195 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2451 |
| Sagarin | +33.5 | +8590 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1442 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +152 | -12.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2659 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmLean Under 52should be 51.2 · getting 1 ptWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.5 | -10097 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -933 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -25812 |
| Market (11 books) | -29.5 | -1832 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers -29.5 | -110 | -178 | +11.7% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | -5000 | -5558 | priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmLean Air Force +3.5should be Air Force +3.5 · was +6.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Air Force).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +138 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +139 |
| Market (9 books) | +3.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +3.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +141 | +142 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.1.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18.5, our data says Fresno State by 18Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1887 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -601 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -619 |
| Market (10 books) | -18.5 | -692 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 47.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +677 | +767 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 31, our data says USC by 30.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -30.5 | -5134 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3373 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Louisiana | |
| Market (10 books) | -31.0 | -2062 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -110 | +151 | -12.5% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2500 | +5031 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -35.5 | -4883 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -16.0 | -580 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.
Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (10 books) | -10.0 | -322 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 gamesNothing worth betting yet.Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmHeldQB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured ReserveHeld, QB out
Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.
Opened -8.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jaguars).
Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Elijah Chatman (DT, Browns), Travis Bell (DT, Browns).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -205 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +284 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Steelers by 3.5, our data says Steelers by 3.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), Keshawn Banks (DE, Falcons), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons), Anterio Thompson (DT, Falcons).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | -110 | +114 | -5.6% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -182 | -151 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Colts +3.5should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens), Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Danny Pinter (C, Ravens).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +150 | +147 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 44should be 45.7 · getting 1.5 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Zane Durant (DT, Bills).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | pk | +100 |
| Market (12 books) | +0.5 | -100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +0.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -107 | +104 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 47.5should be 46.7 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Coby Bryant (S, Bears).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +131 | +133 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Buccaneers to winour data says 39 in 100 · +173 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +173 | +159 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 50should be 49.3 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints), Jaylan Ford (LB, Saints). and 1 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -214 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -275 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +7.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +251 | +236 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 39should be 41.8 · getting 2.7 ptsLean Titans, waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Titans: market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.
A play at -0.5 or better.
Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans), Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Tyler Baron (DE, Jets).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans -1.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -130 | -130 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -143 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Scott Matlock (FB, Chargers), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals). and 1 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -165 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -417 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +10.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +400 | +345 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 46should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Marcus Allen (CB, Vikings), Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Tyler Batty (LB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Collin Oliver (DE, Packers). and 2 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -169 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -122 | -117 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3.5, our data says Raiders by 3.5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders), Chigozie Anusiem (CB, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins). and 2 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -121 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -185 | -154 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5Waiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Andre' Sam (S, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Curtis Jacobs (LB, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders). and 2 more
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -162 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -205 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 | -110 | +111 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -235 | -182 | -5.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmLean Over 48should be 48.4 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting
Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.
Also out: Korie Black (CB, Giants), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys), Marist Liufau (LB, Cowboys), Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (DT, Cowboys).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -112 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +133 | +131 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Saturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Scoreboard
Loading scores...
How Sunday 6 September went
Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.
| What we said | Right-wrong | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Leaned, no bet | 1-0 | 100% |
Game by game
How it's going
It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 68 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 70 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 1 was worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.
Since 8:57 pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 1 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 30115 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.35 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 68 | 0.63 |
| BetOnline.ag | 68 | 0.55 |
| LowVig.ag | 65 | 0.50 |
| FanDuel | 63 | 0.46 |
| BetMGM | 63 | 0.44 |
| TOM | 52 | 0.36 |
| BetRivers | 64 | 0.34 |
| MyBookie.ag | 58 | 0.33 |
| BetUS | 64 | 0.22 |
| Bovada | 62 | 0.19 |
| Pinnacle | 61 | 0.19 |
| Caesars | 67 | 0.19 |
| Fanatics | 67 | 0.14 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated today
- nfelo updated today