Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Mon 3:18 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

Best on the board right now

Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is A Little Nasty. Small money, our side, no receipt.

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw StateKennesaw State +3should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMWed 6:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +3.5 at -124 (1.9%) · BetMGM or TOM +3 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Monday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Iowa +3 (Iowa at Washington) at 6.0% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is South Florida at UTSA, Over 51, down 1 since the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Iowa at Washington, Iowa +3. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.

Buck

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Duke at Georgia Tech, Over 49.5. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 1 point since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

2 more later this week

Duke at Georgia TechMoved our way · 1 ptOver 49.5should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -108 (1.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.

Jacksonville State at Kennesaw StateKennesaw State +3should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMWed 6:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Sniff of Nasty · Friday's preview, 23 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Iowa +3, NC State +4, UNLV +3. Open

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and SP+ and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. NFL: FPI and Massey and Sagarin and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin and nfelo haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Iowa at WashingtonIowa +3should be Iowa +1.5 · getting 1.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›

6.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Iowa): TOM +3 at +100 (6.0%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (5.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (4.9%) · Fanatics +3 at -105 (4.8%) · DraftKings +3 at -108 (4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -118 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.

Wake Forest at NC StateNC State +4should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

4.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (NC State): TOM +4 at -115 (4.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (4.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (3.9%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3should be UNLV +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

3.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (UNLV): TOM +3 at +100 (3.8%) · DraftKings +3 at -102 (3.3%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (2.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -118 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.

Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

3.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM +4 at -110 (3.7%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -105 (3.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (3.2%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Broncos at ChargersMoved our way · 1 ptChargers +3.5-110 at DraftKings · 3.6% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

3.6% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.1%).

Texans at TitansTitans +6.5+105 (47¢) at Kalshi · 3.5% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

3.5% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Titans): Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (3.5%) · BetMGM +7 at -110 (2.7%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -102 (1.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +7 at -115 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%).Points or price: +7 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +6.5 (the games that land on 7); -110 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. The price wins.

Giants at CommandersMoved our way · 1 ptGiants +3.5should be Giants +2.5 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsDamn Near Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

3.2% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Giants): Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (3.2%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 52¢ (2.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (2.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -119 (2.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sacramento State at Bowling GreenBowling Green -7-116 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Damn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

1.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -116 (1.6%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.0%).

15 more, weaker reads

South Carolina at FloridaSouth Carolina +13.5should be South Carolina +12 · getting 1.5 pts at KalshiDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:45am Buck's case ›

1.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (South Carolina): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM +13.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +13 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +13.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -114 (-1.1%).

South Florida at UTSAMoved our way · 1 ptOver 51should be 54 · getting 3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthThu 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): TOM 51 at -110 (5.4%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 55¢ (4.5%) · BetMGM, DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (3.5%) · Fanatics or Caesars 51.5 at -115 (2.9%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (2.4%).Points or price: 49.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 51 (the games that land on 51); 55¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

San Diego State at Oregon StateUnder 56should be 53.5 · getting 2.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -115 (4.0%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (3.1%) · TOM 56 at -115 (2.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%).

UCF at Oklahoma StateUnder 54should be 51.9 · getting 2.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (2.7%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -106 (2.4%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (2.0%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 54 (the games that land on 54); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Tennessee at ArkansasOver 50.5should be 52.5 · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (3.5%) · TOM 50.5 at -109 (2.8%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (2.1%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 54¢ (1.8%).Points or price: 49.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 50.5 (the games that land on 50); 54¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -106. The price wins.

North Carolina at PittsburghPittsburgh to winour data says 66 in 100 · -175A Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

2.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): Kalshi 62¢ (2.0%) · FanDuel -182 (1.1%) · TOM -185 (0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -190 (0.1%) · DraftKings -192 (-0.1%).

USC at Penn StateOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (1.8%) · TOM 55 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (1.4%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -118 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

New Mexico State at Florida InternationalNew Mexico State +6should be New Mexico State +4.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthWed 6:30pm Buck's case ›

1.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +6 at -105 (1.5%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars +6 at -109 (0.5%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +6 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +6.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +6 (the games that land on 6); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.

UConn at TempleOver 54.5should be 55.9 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:45pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 54.5 at -105 (2.2%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.6%).

Kent State at Western MichiganWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

1.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Western Michigan): DraftKings or BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.5%) · TOM -13.5 at -114 (1.0%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (0.8%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.2%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 54¢ (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

UAB at MemphisMemphis -14should be Memphis -15.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

0.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Memphis): DraftKings or Fanatics -14 at -110 (1.0%) · TOM -14 at -112 (0.5%) · BetMGM -14 at -115 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Louisiana at Louisiana TechMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 48should be 49.1 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48.5 at -102 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -118 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%).Points or price: 48 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.

Miami (OH) at MassachusettsMoved our way · 1 ptOver 47should be 48.4 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 1:00pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -108 (0.4%) · TOM 47 at -115 (0.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 47 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 47); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.

Indiana at NebraskaUnder 52weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Read from FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 52.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · TOM 52 at -113 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

James Madison at Georgia SouthernUnder 54.5weather: 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the totalA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

Read from FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.8%) · Fanatics or FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (1.0%) · TOM 54.5 at -113 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Moved closer since the 9:07am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:07am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Colts at Steelers Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Colts +3.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.0 to +2.5; the price from -105 to -107. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Bengals at Dolphins Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Dolphins +7.5: 3.3 cents short at today's line, was 32.3.The price from -110 to -115. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Arizona at West Virginia Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Arizona -2.5: 1.0 points away, was out of reach.The price from -104 to +101. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
James Madison at Georgia Southern Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at James Madison -7.0: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The line went from -8.0 to -7.5; the price from -105 to -110; the market drifted 1.1 away from the Nasty Number. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Ravens at Falcons Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Falcons +4.5: 1.0 points away, was out of reach.The line went from -3.0 to +3.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 8:33am✓SagarinSun 10:16am✓MasseyMon 8:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 116 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloFri 3:16pm✓FPIMon 8:04am✓SagarinFri 3:16pm✓MasseyMon 8:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 28 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

When the Nasty Number disagrees with the market by 3 or more, that side has covered 8 of 30 this season.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints

NFL 7:15pm

Saints -1

should be Saints -2 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 1, the Nasty Number says Saints by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 1TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4

Sagarin

Saints by 3.5

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 20.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

43.74.3 pts under the market

FPI

42.15.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.95.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -116	48 -110	-118	-102
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-1.5 -103	48.5 +103	-117	+106

All 25 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -116	48 -110	-118	-102
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -112	47.5 -113	-125	+104
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	48 -110	-120	+100
BetMGM	-1.5 -105	47.5 -110	-120	+105
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -110	48 -108	-120	+100
betPARX	-1.5 -112	47.5 -113	-125	+104
BetRivers	-1.5 -112	47.5 -113	-125	+104
BetUS	-1 -115	48 -110	-120	+100
Caesars	-1.5 -109	48 -108	-124	+105
Courtside	-1.5 -108	47.5 -113	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -108	47.5 -115	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-1.5 -110	48 -110	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-118	+100
Fliff	-1.5 -110	47.5 -120	-125	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-120	+100
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-120	+100
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-120	+100
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -103	48 -107	-120	+100
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	48 -110	-120	+102
Pinnacle	-1.5 -103	48.5 +103	-117	+106
Polymarket	-1.5 +100	47.5 -108	-113	+108
ReBet	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-118	+101
theScore Bet	-1.5 -110	48.5 -105	-120	+100

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -1.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): BetMGM -1.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -1.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -1.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · TOM -1 at -116 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -118 at FanDuel

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Saints to win): FanDuel or TOM -118 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -120 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -121 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.4%) · Caesars -124 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (0.2%) · Caesars 48 at -112 (0.2%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Falcons).

Also out: A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Anfernee Jennings (LB, Saints), Kaden Elliss (LB, Saints) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
FPI	-4.0	-188
Sagarin	-3.5	-175
Massey	-3.0	-159
Market (21 books)	-1.0	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	42.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -1.5	-105	-104	-0.2%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-118	-116	-0.5%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-27 21:32; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at Troy

CFB tomorrow 7:00pm

Troy -10.5

should be Troy -10 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Troy by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Troy by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Troy →

Market

Troy by 10.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Troy by 12

FPI

Troy by 6

Sagarin

Troy by 11.5

Massey

Troy by 7.5

Nasty Number

Troy by 100.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.20.3 pts under the market

Massey

482.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.11.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-10.5 -110	50.5 -105	-420	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	48.5	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -107	49.5 -106	-430	+320

All 22 books

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-10.5 -110	50.5 -105	-420	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	48.5	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -112	49 -112	-455	+330
BetAnything	-11 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -108	49.5 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-420	+330
betPARX	-10.5 -112	49 -112	-455	+330
BetRivers	-10.5 -113	49 -113	-480	+330
BetUS	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-10.5 -110	49.5 -105	-430	+320
Caesars	-10.5 -105	49.5 -110	-420	+320
Courtside	-10.5 -108	49.5 -108	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -108	49.5 -110	-410	+320
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	49.5 -105	-410	+315
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	49.5 -105	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -106	49.5 -108	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-11 -110	49.5 -110	-481	+350
Pinnacle	-10.5 -107	49.5 -106	-430	+320
Polymarket	-10.5 +100	49.5 -113	-355	—
ReBet	-10.5 -119	49.5 -111	-481	+350
theScore Bet	-11.5 -115	49.5 -110	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +10.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Southern Miss): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +10.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, Caesars or Kalshi +10.5 at -115 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Southern Miss to win · +310 (23¢) at Kalshi

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): Fanatics +325 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesars +320 (-1.6%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +315 (-1.9%) · TOM +310 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 50.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 48¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars 49.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Troy). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $0 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5, only $2 available; Under 49.5, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.5 consensus.

theScore Bet still has Southern Miss +11.5 while Pinnacle is at Troy by 10.5.

Full detail

We settle onTroy by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-402
FPI	-6.0	-206
Sagarin	-11.5	-394
Massey	-7.5	-275
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+310	+349	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Troy Trojans since 09-30 18:06; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wed Oct 7

2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico State, New Mexico State at Florida International

GameThe call

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida International

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:30pm

New Mexico State +6

should be New Mexico State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +4.5

Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, New Mexico State. Market says Florida International by 6, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 4.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Florida International →

Market

Florida International by 6TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game

FPI

Florida International by 23.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida International by 2.53.7 pts our side

Massey

Florida International by 2.53.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida International by 4.51.3 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean New Mexico State. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

46.4on the market

Weather

-1.081% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

44.22.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-220	+180
Pinnacle	-5.5 -112	46.5 -109	-222	+183

All 21 books

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-220	+180
Bally Bet	-6 -109	46.5 -110	-230	+185
BetAnything	-5.5 -115	47 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-6.5 -108	46.5 -112	-225	+188
BetOnline.ag	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-220	+186
betPARX	-6 -109	46.5 -110	-230	+185
BetRivers	-6 -110	46.5 -112	-235	+185
BetUS	-6 -115	46.5 -110	-220	+185
Bovada	-5.5 -115	46.5 -110	-225	+185
Caesars	-6 -110	46.5 -113	-225	+184
Courtside	-6 -108	46.5 -110	-213	+184
DraftKings	-6 -110	46.5 -112	-218	+180
Fanatics	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-225	+185
FanDuel	-6.5 -105	47.5 -106	-230	+188
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -115	46.5 -110	-225	+185
LowVig.ag	-6 -111	46.5 -108	-220	+186
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	47 -110	-255	+204
Pinnacle	-5.5 -112	46.5 -109	-222	+183
Polymarket	-5.5	—	—	—
ReBet	-6.5 -114	46.5 -119	-265	+198
theScore Bet	-6.5 -105	46.5 -120	-230	+195

Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico State +6.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +6 at -105 (1.5%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars +6 at -109 (0.5%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +6 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

New Mexico State to win · +188 at FanDuel

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +188 (0.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars +185 (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM +180 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (0.8%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 46.5 at -110 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is New Mexico State +6.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers -5.5, only $86 available; Over 45.5, only $190 available; Under 45.5, only $247 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida International by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game
FPI	-2.0	-118
Sagarin	-2.5	-119
Massey	-2.5	-119
Market (19 books)	-6.0	-211

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico State Aggies +6.0	-105	-111	+1.5%
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies ML	+188	+182	+0.7%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 3.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw State

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pm

Kennesaw State +3

should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2.5

A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Jacksonville State by 7.54.3 pts against us

FPI

Kennesaw State by 1.54.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Kennesaw State by 46.9 pts our side

Massey

Jacksonville State by 3on the market

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 2.50.6 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Kennesaw State. SP+ at Jacksonville State by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

532.5 pts over the market

Massey

49.41.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.20.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	+3 -110	50.5 -115	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+3 -115	50 -108	+124	-146

All 23 books

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	+3 -110	50.5 -115	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+3 -113	49.5 -112	+123	-148
BetAnything	+3 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -110	50 -110	+125	-145
betPARX	+3 -113	49.5 -112	+123	-148
BetRivers	+3 -114	49.5 -113	+120	-150
BetUS	+3 -110	50 -110	+125	-145
Bovada	+3 -115	50 -110	+125	-145
Caesars	+3 -112	50.5 -109	+126	-150
Courtside	+3 -113	50.5 -109	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -115	49.5 -115	+124	-148
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 48¢ -100 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -115	50 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+3.5 -124	49.5 -110	+126	-152
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +100	49.5 -110	+125	-145
LowVig.ag	+3 -106	50 -108	+125	-145
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	50 -110	+123	-151
Pinnacle	+3 -115	50 -108	+124	-146
Polymarket	—	51.5 +104	—	-138
ReBet	+2.5 -103	49.5 -114	+121	-155
theScore Bet	+2.5 +105	50.5 -115	+125	-145

Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +3.5 at -124 (1.9%) · BetMGM or TOM +3 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kennesaw State to win · +126 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): FanDuel, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM +126 (1.3%) · DraftKings +124 (0.9%) · TOM +120 (0.1%) · Kalshi 44¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 50.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.9%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.

Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +2.5, only $16 available; Over 50.5, only $115 available; Under 51.5, only $168 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+262
FPI	-1.5	-108
Sagarin	-4.0	-169
Massey	+3.0	+142
Market (19 books)	+3.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +3.0	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+126	+119	+1.3%
Total	Under 50.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Thu Oct 8

5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Over, South Florida at UTSA

GameThe call

South Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSA

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 51Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 54 · getting 3 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore UTSA →

Market

UTSA by 7TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game

FPI

UTSA by 33.9 pts our side

Sagarin

UTSA by 81.2 pts against us

Massey

UTSA by 2.54.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

UTSA by 61.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean South Florida. Sagarin at UTSA by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

62.511.5 pts over the market

Massey

56.85.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.78.7 pts over the market

Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	UTSA spread	Total (over)	UTSA ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-7 -110	51 -110	-270	+210
Kalshi	-7.5 +101 48¢	49.5 -131 55¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-7 -105	51.5 -113	-274	+220

All 23 books

	UTSA spread	Total (over)	UTSA ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-7 -110	51 -110	-270	+210
Kalshi	-7.5 +101 48¢	49.5 -131 55¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Bally Bet	-7 -117	52.5 -113	-335	+250
BetAnything	-7 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-7 -105	51.5 -112	-275	+220
BetOnline.ag	-7 -105	51.5 -115	-265	+219
betPARX	-7 -117	52.5 -113	-335	+250
BetRivers	-7 -118	52.5 -115	-335	+250
BetUS	-7 -105	51.5 -115	-265	+223
Bovada	-7 -105	51.5 -115	-270	+220
Caesars	-7 -112	51.5 -115	-280	+225
Courtside	-7 -108	51.5 -110	-271	+230
DraftKings	-7 -110	51.5 -112	-278	+225
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-7 -105	51.5 -115	-275	+220
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	52.5 -106	-255	+205
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 +100	52.5 -110	-325	+250
LowVig.ag	-7 -101	51.5 -114	-265	+219
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	51.5 -110	-280	+222
Pinnacle	-7 -105	51.5 -113	-274	+220
Polymarket	—	51.5	—	+233
ReBet	-7.5 -103	51.5 -114	-290	+216
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	51.5 -110	-250	+210

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida +7.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Florida): Caesars +7 at -108 (3.2%) · DraftKings or TOM +7 at -110 (2.7%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (2.3%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

South Florida to win · +229 (29¢) at Kalshi

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: South Florida loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (South Florida to win): Kalshi 29¢ (3.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars +225 (2.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +220 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (1.4%) · TOM +210 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 57. That's 8.7 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51 at -110 (5.4%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 55¢ (4.5%) · BetMGM, DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (3.5%) · Fanatics or Caesars 51.5 at -115 (2.9%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (2.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: UTSA Roadrunners -7.5, only $79 available; South Florida Bulls +7.5, only $2 available; Over 51.5, only $295 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game
FPI	-3.0	-142
Sagarin	-8.0	-294
Massey	-2.5	-119
Market (19 books)	-7.0	-258

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	59.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+229	+199	+3.0%
Spread	South Florida Bulls +7.0	-110	-123	+2.7%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-137	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 6.1.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas State

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm

Arkansas State -1.5

should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Arkansas State →

Market

Arkansas State by 1.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game

FPI

Arkansas State by 2

Sagarin

Arkansas State by 4.5

Massey

South Alabama by 1

Nasty Number

Arkansas State by 1.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

65.58 pts over the market

Massey

59.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

62.44.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	57.5 -110	-121	+101
Kalshi	-1.5	57.5	-116 52¢	—
Pinnacle	-1 -108	57 -114	-113	-103

All 23 books

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	57.5 -110	-121	+101
Kalshi	-1.5	57.5	-116 52¢	—
Bally Bet	-1 -113	57.5 -114	-118	-104
BetAnything	PK -110	58 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	57.5 -110	-118	-102
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -110	57.5 -110	-121	+101
betPARX	-1 -113	57.5 -114	-118	-104
BetRivers	-1 -113	57.5 -115	-120	-105
BetUS	-1 -110	57.5 -110	-120	+100
Bovada	-1 -110	57.5 -110	-115	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -106	57.5 -112	-117	-102
Courtside	-1.5 -105	57.5 -113	-113	-103
DraftKings	-1.5 -105	57.5 -115	-115	-105
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in
Fanatics	-1 -110	57.5 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	-1.5 -102	57.5 -110	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -105	57.5 -115	-120	-105
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -106	57.5 -108	-121	+101
MyBookie.ag	-1 -110	58 -110	-116	-105
Pinnacle	-1 -108	57 -114	-113	-103
Polymarket	+0.5	57.5	—	—
ReBet	-1.5 -109	57.5 -119	-119	-107
theScore Bet	-1.5 +100	57.5 -110	-110	-110

Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas State -1.5 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas State): FanDuel -1.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -1 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars -1.5 at -106 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Arkansas State to win · -110 at FanDuel

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Arkansas State to win): FanDuel -110 (0.3%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Kalshi -115 (-0.8%) · Caesars -117 (-1.2%) · BetMGM -118 (-1.4%) · TOM -121 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 57.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Caesars 57.5 at -112 (1.7%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -115 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5, only $128 available; Over 57.5, only $17 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -116 here against -105 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas State by 1.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game
FPI	-2.0	-117
Sagarin	-4.5	-178
Massey	+1.0	+106
Market (19 books)	-1.5	-116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	62.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves ML	-110	-111	+0.3%
Spread	Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5	-102	-100	-0.5%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus; moneyline -116 here against -105 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at Liberty

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pm

Liberty -13.5

should be Liberty -13.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Liberty →

Market

Liberty by 13.5TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Liberty's last game

FPI

Liberty by 12.5

Sagarin

Liberty by 13.5

Massey

Liberty by 10.5

Nasty Number

Liberty by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.81.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.61.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Sam Houston ML
TOM	-13.5 -117	52.5 -110	-575	+405
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -102	52.5 -109	-605	+419

All 23 books

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Sam Houston ML
TOM	-13.5 -117	52.5 -110	-575	+405
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -113	52.5 -103	-835	+550
BetAnything	-13.5 -116	52.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-13.5 -112	52.5 -110	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -116	52.5 -110	-575	+431
betPARX	-13.5 -113	52.5 -103	-835	+550
BetRivers	-13.5 -114	52.5 -103	-910	+550
BetUS	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-575	+440
Bovada	-14 -105	52.5 -110	-600	+425
Caesars	-13.5 -114	52.5 -112	-590	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -113	52.5 -108	-576	+455
DraftKings	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 56¢ -138 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -120	52.5 -110	-710	+490
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	52.5 +100	-850	+550
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -112	52.5 -108	-575	+431
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	52.5 -110	-599	+420
Pinnacle	-14 -102	52.5 -109	-605	+419
Polymarket	-13.5	53.5 +104	-525	—
ReBet	-13.5 -119	52.5 -114	-625	+410
theScore Bet	-13.5 -115	52.5 -105	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Liberty -13.5 · -112 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Liberty): BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · Caesars -13.5 at -114 (-3.0%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -13.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · TOM -13.5 at -117 (-3.7%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -120 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Liberty to win · -575 at TOM

We make it 82 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Liberty to win): TOM -575 (-3.5%) · Caesars -590 (-3.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or Kalshi -600 (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 85¢ on the app (-670 all-in) (-5.3%) · FanDuel -710 (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Caesars 52.5 at -112 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $115 available; Under 52.5, only $374 available; Liberty Flames -13.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLiberty by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Liberty's last game
FPI	-12.5	-423
Sagarin	-13.5	-450
Massey	-10.5	-365
Market (19 books)	-13.5	-550

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	50.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Liberty Flames -13.5	-112	-101	-2.6%
Moneyline	Liberty Flames ML	-575	-447	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western Kentucky

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pm

Western Kentucky -2.5

should be Western Kentucky -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore Western Kentucky →

Market

Western Kentucky by 2.5TOM, -118

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Kentucky's last game

FPI

Missouri State by 0.5

Sagarin

Western Kentucky by 4

Massey

Western Kentucky by 5

Nasty Number

Western Kentucky by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 2 to Western Kentucky by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

58.41.9 pts over the market

Massey

57.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.81.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Western Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Western Kentucky ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-2.5 -118	56.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	56.5	—	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	55.5 -109	-138	+118

All 23 books

	Western Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Western Kentucky ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-2.5 -118	56.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	56.5	—	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -110	55.5 -104	-137	+112
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -108	-135	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -118	55.5 -110	-135	+115
betPARX	-2.5 -110	55.5 -104	-137	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	55.5 -105	-137	+112
BetUS	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-134	+113
Courtside	-2.5 -115	55.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 48¢ -100 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	55.5 -110	-138	+115
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	54.5 -120	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -114	55.5 -108	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	55.5 -110	-140	+114
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	55.5 -109	-138	+118
Polymarket	-2.5 -108	55.5	-127	—
ReBet	-2.5 -116	55.5 -114	-143	+112
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	-135	+115

Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky -2.5 · -118 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Kentucky): Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or TOM -2.5 at -118 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Western Kentucky to win · -135 at Caesars

We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Western Kentucky to win): Caesars, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -134 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -138 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -140 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 56.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.1%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 53¢ (-3.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM 55.5 at -110 (-3.6%) · Caesars 55.5 at -112 (-4.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $5 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $303 available; Over 55.5, only $40 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Kentucky by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Kentucky's last game
FPI	+0.5	+103
Sagarin	-4.0	-172
Massey	-5.0	-184
Market (19 books)	-2.5	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5	-118	-110	-1.7%
Moneyline	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML	-135	-134	-0.3%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at Cowboys

NFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pm

Cowboys -10

should be Cowboys -10 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 10, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 10TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game

FPI

Cowboys by 14.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game

Massey

Cowboys by 6.5

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 100.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

54.16.6 pts over the market

FPI

44.53 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.31.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Buccaneers ML
TOM	-10 -105	47.5 -110	-545	+395
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-564 84¢	+426 18¢
Pinnacle	-10 +102	47.5 -107	-528	+407

All 25 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Buccaneers ML
TOM	-10 -105	47.5 -110	-545	+395
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-564 84¢	+426 18¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -112	47.5 -106	-625	+450
BetAnything	-9.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-9.5 -110	47.5 -108	-525	+400
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -112	47.5 -110	-535	+406
betPARX	-9.5 -112	47.5 -106	-625	+450
BetRivers	-9.5 -112	47.5 -106	-625	+450
BetUS	-9.5 -110	47.5 -110	-535	+415
Caesars	-9.5 -113	47.5 -110	-560	+400
Courtside	-9.5 -112	47.5 -108	-483	+392
DraftKings	-9.5 -112	47.5 -110	-500	+380
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 47¢ +104 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	47.5 -105	-525	+390
FanDuel	-9.5 -115	47.5 -104	-560	+420
Fliff	-9.5 -115	47.5 -105	-615	+395
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-575	+425
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-575	+425
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-575	+425
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -107	47.5 -107	-535	+406
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	47.5 -110	-526	+350
Pinnacle	-10 +102	47.5 -107	-528	+407
Polymarket	-9.5 -104	47.5 +100	-488	—
ReBet	-9.5 -120	47.5 -110	-469	+360
theScore Bet	-9.5 -105	47.5 +100	-600	+400

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · Caesars +9.5 at -106 (-3.1%) · TOM +10 at -115 (-3.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-3.6%) · Fanatics +9.5 at -110 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +426 (18¢) at Kalshi

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): Kalshi 18¢ (0.9%) · FanDuel +420 (0.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM +400 (-0.1%) · TOM +395 (-0.3%) · Fanatics +390 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 44. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -104 (0.2%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5, only $415 available; Under 47.5, only $23 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5, only $155 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Emari Demercado (RB, Cowboys), Camden Brown (WR, Cowboys), Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game
FPI	-14.5	-465
Sagarin	hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Massey	-6.5	-182
Market (21 books)	-10.0	-522

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10.0	-115	-101	-3.2%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+426	+403	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 9

5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Iowa, Iowa at Washington

GameThe call

Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at Washington

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

Iowa +3

should be Iowa +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +1

Sniff of Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 1.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 3TOM, -120

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game

FPI

Iowa by 4.57.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Iowa by 0.53.3 pts our side

Massey

Iowa by 25.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Washington by 1.51.5 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

37.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

40.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.11.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-3 -120	41 -115	-168	+138
Kalshi	-2.5	41.5 -112 51¢	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 -116	41.5 -114	-163	+138

All 23 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-3 -120	41 -115	-168	+138
Kalshi	-2.5	41.5 -112 51¢	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -110	41.5 -109	-157	+125
BetAnything	-3 -105	41 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -118	41.5 -105	-165	+138
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	41 -115	-165	+145
betPARX	-3 -110	41.5 -109	-157	+125
BetRivers	-3 -112	41.5 -110	-157	+125
BetUS	-3 -110	41 -110	-165	+142
Bovada	-3 -120	42 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3 -110	41 -115	-157	+133
Courtside	-3 -110	41.5 -103	-163	+143
DraftKings	-3 -112	41.5 -105	-166	+140
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 49¢ -104 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	41.5 -110	-160	+135
FanDuel	-3.5 -104	41.5 -105	-166	+138
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -125	41.5 -110	-155	+125
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	41 -114	-165	+145
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	41.5 -110	-165	+134
Pinnacle	-3 -116	41.5 -114	-163	+138
Polymarket	-3.5	41.5 -108	-150	—
ReBet	-3.5 +100	41.5 -109	-172	+129
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	41.5 -105	-165	+140

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +3.0 · +100 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Iowa): TOM +3 at +100 (6.0%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (5.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (4.9%) · Fanatics +3 at -105 (4.8%) · DraftKings +3 at -108 (4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Iowa to win · +138 at FanDuel

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 42. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Iowa loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Iowa to win): DraftKings +140 (5.7%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +138 (5.4%) · Fanatics +135 (4.8%) · Caesars +133 (4.4%) · Kalshi 42¢ (3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 41.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 41.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars or TOM 41 at -105 (-0.8%) · BetMGM 41.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 41.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 63°F, 41% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -2.5, only $35 available; Under 41.5, only $69 available; Washington Huskies -3.5, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game
FPI	+4.5	+182
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	+2.0	+117
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +3.0	+100	-127	+6.0%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+138	+111	+5.4%
Total	Under 41.0	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah State

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

Washington State +6

should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 6, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Washington State than the bookmore Utah State →

Market

Utah State by 6TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game

FPI

Utah State by 4.51.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Utah State by 2.53.3 pts our side

Massey

Washington State by 2.58.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Utah State by 4.51.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Washington State. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

385 pts under the market

Massey

46.73.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.40.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-6 -107	43 -110	-195	+165
Kalshi	-5.5	41.5 -131 55¢	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-5 -106	42.5 -113	-200	+167

All 23 books

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-6 -107	43 -110	-195	+165
Kalshi	-5.5	41.5 -131 55¢	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -107	43.5 -114	-200	+160
BetAnything	-6 -105	43 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-5.5 -108	42.5 -118	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -110	43 -110	-195	+170
betPARX	-4.5 -107	43.5 -114	-200	+160
BetRivers	-4.5 -108	43.5 -115	-200	+160
BetUS	-5.5 -110	43 -110	-195	+167
Bovada	-5 -110	42.5 -115	-200	+170
Caesars	-5.5 -109	43.5 -106	-197	+165
Courtside	-5.5 -108	42.5 -122	-188	+163
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	43.5 -102	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 52¢ -117 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics	-5 -110	43 -110	-200	+165
FanDuel	-5.5 -112	43.5 -108	-215	+176
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -105	43.5 -115	-200	+160
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -106	43 -108	-195	+170
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	43 -110	-223	+178
Pinnacle	-5 -106	42.5 -113	-200	+167
Polymarket	-4.5 -108	43.5	—	+170
ReBet	-5.5 -114	43.5 -111	-197	+146
theScore Bet	-4.5 -115	43.5 -105	-190	+160

Marked: best for Washington State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington State +6.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington State): TOM +6 at -113 (0.3%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -108 (0.2%) · BetMGM or Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +5.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Washington State to win · +176 at FanDuel

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Washington State to win): FanDuel +176 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +170 (-0.9%) · Kalshi, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +166 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +160 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 47. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 42.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · Caesars 43.5 at -114 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM 43 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -118 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.0. The market has moved 3.2 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Utah State Aggies -5.5, only $17 available; Under 41.5, only $18 available; Over 43.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah State by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game
FPI	-4.5	-178
Sagarin	-2.5	-130
Massey	+2.5	+122
Market (19 books)	-6.0	-187

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +6.0	-113	-115	+0.3%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+176	+177	-0.1%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.1 consensus.

Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José State

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

San José State -6.5

should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore San José State →

Market

San José State by 6.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game

FPI

San José State by 81.5 pts our side

Sagarin

San José State by 8.51.9 pts our side

Massey

San José State by 51.3 pts against us

Nasty Number

San José State by 70.3 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean San José State. Massey at San José State by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

37.65.4 pts under the market

Massey

421 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.83.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-6.5 -105	43 -110	-225	+175
Kalshi	-6.5	43.5 -112 51¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -104	44 -102	-235	+192

All 23 books

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-6.5 -105	43 -110	-225	+175
Kalshi	-6.5	43.5 -112 51¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-6 -114	43.5 -117	-245	+195
BetAnything	-6 -110	42.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-6 -110	43.5 -108	-235	+195
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -105	43 -110	-225	+189
betPARX	-6 -114	43.5 -117	-245	+195
BetRivers	-6 -115	43.5 -118	-250	+195
BetUS	-6.5 -105	43 -110	-225	+190
Bovada	-6.5 -105	43.5 -110	-235	+195
Caesars	-6.5 -109	43.5 -106	-240	+196
Courtside	-6.5 -105	43.5 -106	-232	+199
DraftKings	-6.5 -105	43.5 -108	-238	+195
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in
Fanatics	-6 -110	43.5 -110	-235	+190
FanDuel	-6.5 -108	43.5 -105	-240	+195
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -105	43.5 -115	-240	+195
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -101	43 -108	-225	+189
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	43 -110	-265	+208
Pinnacle	-6.5 -104	44 -102	-235	+192
Polymarket	-6.5	43.5 -104	—	+203
ReBet	-6.5 -114	42.5 -119	-275	+198
theScore Bet	-6.5 +100	43.5 -105	-225	+190

Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San José State): Fanatics or BetMGM -6 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings or TOM -6.5 at -105 (0.4%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · Caesars -6.5 at -109 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

San José State to win · -225 at TOM

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65. Where, best first (San José State to win): TOM -225 (0.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -235 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, Kalshi, FanDuel or Caesars -238 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 69¢ on the app (-245 all-in) (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 43.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · Caesars 43.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $19 available; Under 43.5, only $50 available; San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSan José State by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game
FPI	-8.0	-290
Sagarin	-8.5	-299
Massey	-5.0	-188
Market (19 books)	-6.5	-215

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Jose State Spartans -6.5	-105	-107	+0.4%
Moneyline	San Jose State Spartans ML	-225	-228	+0.3%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at Louisville

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pm

Louisville -3.5

should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game

FPI

Louisville by 1

Sagarin

Louisville by 5.5

Massey

Louisville by 4.5

Nasty Number

Louisville by 40.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

66.57.5 pts over the market

Massey

581 pts under the market

Nasty Number

62.33.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	59 -110	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5	59.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-4 -107	59.5 -109	-184	+155

All 23 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	59 -110	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5	59.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -112	59.5 -108	-190	+150
BetAnything	-4 -110	59 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4 -110	58.5 -115	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	59 -110	-180	+157
betPARX	-4 -112	59.5 -108	-190	+150
BetRivers	-4 -113	59.5 -109	-190	+150
BetUS	-4 -110	59 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-4 -110	59.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-4 -112	59 -110	-190	+154
Courtside	-4 -110	59.5 -103	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4 -112	58.5 -118	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 48¢ -100 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	59.5 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	58.5 -115	-178	+146
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -105	59.5 -110	-190	+150
LowVig.ag	-4 -106	59 -108	-180	+157
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	59 -110	-198	+160
Pinnacle	-4 -107	59.5 -109	-184	+155
Polymarket	-3.5	59.5 -104	-170	—
ReBet	-3.5 -119	59.5 -109	-202	+149
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	59.5 -105	-155	+135

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisville -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Louisville): TOM -3.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -4 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars -4 at -112 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Louisville to win · -170 at TOM

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Louisville to win): TOM -170 (0.1%) · FanDuel -178 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -185 (-1.8%) · Fanatics or Caesars -190 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 58.5 at -115 (0.8%) · Caesars or TOM 59 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -118 (0.2%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 50¢ (0.1%) · Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $0 available; Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $292 available; Florida State Seminoles ML, only $59 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -4.0 consensus.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game
FPI	-1.0	-104
Sagarin	-5.5	-189
Massey	-4.5	-175
Market (19 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	62.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Louisville Cardinals ML	-170	-171	+0.1%
Spread	Louisville Cardinals -3.5	-110	-106	-0.9%
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -4.0 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYU

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pm

BYU -11

should be BYU -10.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 11, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore BYU →

Market

BYU by 11TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game

FPI

BYU by 12.5

Sagarin

BYU by 11.5

Massey

BYU by 4.5

Nasty Number

BYU by 10.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.22.8 pts under the market

Massey

50.72.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11 -105	48 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-10.5	48.5	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 +100	48.5 -105	-409	+307

All 23 books

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11 -105	48 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-10.5	48.5	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -112	48.5 -108	-455	+340
BetAnything	-10 -115	48 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10.5 -108	48.5 -105	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-11.5 -106	48.5 -110	-435	+340
betPARX	-10.5 -112	48.5 -108	-455	+340
BetRivers	-10.5 -113	48.5 -109	-500	+340
BetUS	-10.5 -110	48.5 -110	-435	+340
Bovada	-10 -110	48 -115	-410	+305
Caesars	-10.5 -110	48 -113	-440	+340
Courtside	-10.5 -108	48.5 -103	-412	+339
DraftKings	-10.5 -108	48.5 -105	-425	+330
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	48.5 -105	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	47.5 -114	-450	+340
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	48.5 -110	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-11.5 -102	48.5 -108	-435	+340
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	48 -110	-469	+340
Pinnacle	-10.5 +100	48.5 -105	-409	+307
Polymarket	-10.5 +100	47.5	-376	—
ReBet	-10.5 -114	48.5 -109	-500	+320
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	47.5 -115	-500	+360

Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State +11.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars +10.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · TOM +11 at -115 (-3.0%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -112 (-3.3%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 52¢ (-4.1%) · Fanatics +10 at -110 (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +325 at Fanatics

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars +340 (-1.6%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +331 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM +325 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 22¢ on the app (+317 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 48.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-1.6%) · TOM 48 at -110 (-1.6%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Iowa State).

Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars -10.5, only $456 available; Over 48.5, only $22 available; Iowa State Cyclones +10.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game
FPI	-12.5	-422
Sagarin	-11.5	-390
Massey	-4.5	-175
Market (19 books)	-11.0	-416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +11.0	-115	-102	-3.0%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+325	+372	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.5 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Oct 10

46 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UNLV, North Dakota State at UNLV

GameThe call

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLV

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

UNLV +3

should be UNLV +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +3.5

Sniff of Nasty · UNLVBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UNLV. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 48.0 as well.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore UNLV →

Market

North Dakota State by 3TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game

FPI

a pick'em3 pts our side

Sagarin

UNLV by 13.9 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em3 pts our side

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 2.50.5 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UNLV. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Over -125

The Four

SP+ pace

50.92.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.13.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

513 pts over the market

Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 +100	48 -125	+131	-156
Kalshi	+3.5	49.5 -107 50¢	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3 -103	49.5 -109	+136	-161

All 22 books

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 +100	48 -125	+131	-156
Kalshi	+3.5	49.5 -107 50¢	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -114	49.5 -110	+132	-162
BetAnything	+3 -110	50 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3.5 -118	49.5 -108	+130	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3 +100	49 -110	+136	-156
betPARX	+3.5 -114	49.5 -110	+132	-162
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	49.5 -112	+132	-165
BetUS	+3 +100	49 -110	+134	-155
Bovada	+3 -105	49.5 -110	+135	-160
Courtside	+3.5 -125	49.5 -108	+139	-159
DraftKings	+3 -102	49.5 -110	+136	-162
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 56¢ -138 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	49.5 -110	+135	-160
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	49.5 -110	+126	-152
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	49.5 -110	+130	-160
LowVig.ag	+3 +104	49 -108	+136	-156
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+131	-162
Pinnacle	+3 -103	49.5 -109	+136	-161
Polymarket	—	49.5	+138	—
ReBet	+3.5 -133	49.5 -116	+126	-169
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	49.5 -110	+130	-150

Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.

UNLV +3.0 · +100 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UNLV): TOM +3 at +100 (3.8%) · DraftKings +3 at -102 (3.3%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (2.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

UNLV to win · +131 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (UNLV to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +136 (2.9%) · Kalshi 41¢ (2.6%) · TOM or BetMGM +131 (2.0%) · FanDuel +126 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -125 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -125 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 49.5 at -107 (-1.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics 49.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UNLV +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $65 available; Under 49.5, only $468 available; UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $366 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.0	-104
Massey	PK	-100
Market (18 books)	+3.0	+137

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UNLV Rebels +3.0	+100	-117	+3.8%
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	+131	+121	+2.0%
Total	Over 48.0	-125	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at Missouri

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Texas A&M +3.5

should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was +1

Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 3. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game

FPI

a pick'em3.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Missouri by 1.52.2 pts our side

Massey

Texas A&M by 1.55.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Missouri by 30.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.21.2 pts over the market

Massey

50.52.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.91.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	48 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	48.5	-191 64¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -112	48 -113	-183	+154

All 22 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	48 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	48.5	-191 64¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -108	48.5 -110	-177	+145
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	48 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4 -108	48.5 -105	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	48 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 -108	48.5 -110	-177	+145
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	48.5 -112	-177	+138
BetUS	-3.5 -115	48 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-4 -105	48.5 -110	-180	+155
Courtside	-3.5 -110	48.5 -103	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	48.5 -105	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 53¢ -122 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	48.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -114	48.5 -114	-172	+142
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-175	+145
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -111	48 -108	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-197	+159
Pinnacle	-3.5 -112	48 -113	-183	+154
Polymarket	-3.5	—	-163	—
ReBet	-3.5 -119	48.5 -111	-206	+152
theScore Bet	-3.5 -115	48.5 -105	-170	+145

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +3.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM +4 at -110 (3.7%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -105 (3.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (3.2%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Texas A&M to win · +145 (39¢) at Kalshi

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +150 (2.9%) · Kalshi or TOM +146 (2.1%) · FanDuel +142 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 41¢ on the app (+133 all-in) (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -114 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +3.5 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5, only $0 available; Over 48.5, only $29 available; Missouri Tigers -3.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.5	-109
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (18 books)	-3.5	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +3.5	-105	-120	+3.4%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+145	+133	+2.1%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

NC State +4

should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +2

Sniff of Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 4, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore NC State →

Market

Wake Forest by 4TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game

FPI

Wake Forest by 5.51.5 pts against us

Sagarin

NC State by 1.55.6 pts our side

Massey

NC State by 1.55.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Wake Forest by 2.51.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean NC State. FPI at Wake Forest by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.90.9 pts over the market

Massey

59.10.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+4 -115	60 -105	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5	59.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -112	60 -109	+146	-173

All 22 books

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+4 -115	60 -105	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5	59.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -113	60.5 -109	+140	-175
BetAnything	+4 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3.5 -110	59.5 -115	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	60 -105	+149	-170
betPARX	+3.5 -113	60.5 -109	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -114	60.5 -110	+138	-175
BetUS	+4 -110	60 -105	+146	-170
Bovada	+3.5 -115	60 -110	+145	-170
Courtside	+3.5 -112	59.5 -117	+148	-171
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	60.5 -105	+145	-175
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 55¢ -132 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	60 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -112	59.5 -115	+140	-170
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	60.5 -110	+140	-170
LowVig.ag	+4 -111	60 -103	+149	-170
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	60 -110	+147	-182
Pinnacle	+3.5 -112	60 -109	+146	-173
Polymarket	+3.5 -108	59.5	+150	-170
ReBet	+3.5 -111	59.5 -116	+141	-190
theScore Bet	+3.5 -105	60.5 -115	+150	-175

Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State +4.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (NC State): TOM +4 at -115 (4.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (4.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (3.9%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

NC State to win · +140 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 42. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: NC State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (NC State to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +145 (4.2%) · FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi +140 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (1.0%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 60.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 60 at -105 (-1.2%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi 59.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · Fanatics 60 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +4.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $31 available; Over 59.5, only $75 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game
FPI	+5.5	+194
Sagarin	-1.5	-112
Massey	-1.5	-109
Market (18 books)	+4.0	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	60.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	NC State Wolfpack +4.0	-115	-140	+4.8%
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	+140	+122	+3.3%
Total	Over 60.0	-105	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.5.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at Massachusetts

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pm

Over 47Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 48.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 49

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Miami (OH) too: market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Miami (OH) by 2TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game

FPI

Miami (OH) by 0.51.3 pts against us

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 4.52.7 pts our side

Massey

Miami (OH) by 12.510.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 31.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Miami (OH). FPI at Miami (OH) by 0.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM, Over -115

The Four

SP+ pace

49.72.7 pts over the market

Massey

50.23.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

503 pts over the market

Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+2 -110	47 -115	+110	-130
Kalshi	—	47.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	+2.5 -111	48 +100	+109	-128

All 22 books

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+2 -110	47 -115	+110	-130
Kalshi	—	47.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	47.5 -107	+115	-139
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	48 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -110	47.5 -110	+110	-135
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	47 -115	+110	-130
betPARX	+2.5 -109	47.5 -107	+115	-139
BetRivers	+2.5 -112	47.5 -109	+114	-141
BetUS	+2.5 -110	47 -115	+110	-130
Bovada	+2 -110	47.5 -110	+110	-130
Courtside	+2.5 -112	47.5 -106	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -112	47.5 -108	+110	-130
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 58¢ -150 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	47.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -106	47.5 -108	+114	-137
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	47.5 -105	+115	-140
LowVig.ag	+2 -106	47 -114	+110	-130
MyBookie.ag	—	47.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+2.5 -111	48 +100	+109	-128
Polymarket	—	—	+113	—
ReBet	+2.5 -114	47.5 -114	+106	-141
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	47.5 -105	+105	-125

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -2.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): TOM -2 at -110 (3.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (2.3%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (1.8%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

Miami (OH) to win · -130 at DraftKings

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings or TOM -130 (2.4%) · BetMGM -135 (1.5%) · FanDuel -137 (1.1%) · Fanatics -140 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -108 (0.4%) · TOM 47 at -115 (0.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen +2.5, only $365 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.5, only $14 available; UMass Minutemen ML, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game
FPI	+0.5	+102
Sagarin	+4.5	+181
Massey	+12.5	+414
Market (18 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Miami (OH) RedHawks ML	-130	-144	+2.4%
Total	Over 47.0	-115	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling Green

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Bowling Green -7

should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

Bowling Green by 7TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game

FPI

Bowling Green by 103.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Bowling Green by 10.53.6 pts our side

Massey

Bowling Green by 9.52.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bowling Green by 8.51.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Bowling Green. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

403.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.41.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-7 -116	43.5 -110	-290	+230
Kalshi	-7.5	44.5	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Pinnacle	-7 -116	43 -114	-281	+225

All 22 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-7 -116	43.5 -110	-290	+230
Kalshi	-7.5	44.5	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -129	42.5 -117	-360	+275
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	42.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-7.5 -110	43.5 -108	-295	+240
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -112	43.5 -110	-280	+230
betPARX	-6.5 -129	42.5 -117	-360	+275
BetRivers	-6.5 -132	42.5 -118	-360	+270
BetUS	-7.5 -110	43.5 -110	-280	+235
Bovada	-7 -120	43.5 -110	-280	+230
Courtside	-7.5 -110	43.5 -106	-290	+246
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	43.5 -108	-298	+240
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 52¢ -117 all-in	42.5 57¢ -144 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -105	43.5 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-7.5 -110	43.5 -106	-310	+245
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -130	42.5 -115	-350	+275
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -108	43.5 -108	-280	+230
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	43 -110	-335	+260
Pinnacle	-7 -116	43 -114	-281	+225
Polymarket	—	—	—	+245
ReBet	-7.5 -114	42.5 -119	-380	+260
theScore Bet	-8.5 -110	43.5 -105	-320	+260

Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green -7.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -116 (1.6%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Bowling Green to win): Fanatics -285 (0.9%) · Kalshi or TOM -290 (0.6%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -295 (0.3%) · FanDuel -310 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 74¢ on the app (-317 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 43.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 44.5 at 54¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -7.5, only $196 available; Over 44.5, only $55 available; Bowling Green Falcons -7.5, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBowling Green by 8.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game
FPI	-10.0	-349
Sagarin	-10.5	-369
Massey	-9.5	-312
Market (18 books)	-7.0	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons -7.0	-116	-124	+1.6%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	-290	-299	+0.6%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at Florida

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45am

South Carolina +13.5

should be South Carolina +12 · getting 1.5 pts at Kalshi · was +15

Sniff of Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 12. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 13.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game

FPI

Florida by 85.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida by 94.3 pts our side

Massey

Florida by 7.56.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida by 121.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean South Carolina. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

61.8on the market

Massey

611 pts under the market

Weather

-2.013 mph wind, 54% chance of rain, takes 2 points off

Nasty Number

59.42.6 pts under the market

Under 62 is a weather call. 13 mph wind and 54% chance of rain, worth about 2 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-13.5 -110	62 -105	-550	+400
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	61.5 -116 52¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -111	62 -109	-596	+414

All 22 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-13.5 -110	62 -105	-550	+400
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	61.5 -116 52¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -113	61.5 -109	-530	+390
BetAnything	-12.5 -110	62.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-13 -110	62.5 -105	-500	+400
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -110	62.5 -105	-550	+415
betPARX	-13.5 -113	61.5 -109	-530	+390
BetRivers	-13.5 -114	61.5 -110	-530	+360
BetUS	-13.5 -110	62.5 -105	-550	+425
Bovada	-13.5 -115	62 -110	-600	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -106	62.5 -106	-530	+423
DraftKings	-13.5 -108	62.5 -108	-550	+410
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 58¢ -150 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	62 -110	-550	+410
FanDuel	-13.5 -106	61.5 -115	-530	+390
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	61.5 -110	-525	+400
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -106	62.5 -103	-550	+415
MyBookie.ag	—	62.5 -110	-526	+370
Pinnacle	-13.5 -111	62 -109	-596	+414
Polymarket	—	—	—	+456
ReBet	-13.5 -116	62.5 -111	-549	+350
theScore Bet	-12.5 -115	61.5 -115	-600	+400

Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Carolina): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM +13.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +13 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +13.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -114 (-1.1%).

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · +456 (17¢) at Kalshi

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): Kalshi 17¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +410 (0.3%) · BetMGM or TOM +400 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +390 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 19¢ on the app (+376 all-in) (-1.1%).

Off the band

the Under 62.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 2 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 62.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Fanatics 62 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · TOM 62 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 78°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -13.5. The market has moved 1.4 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 61.5, only $317 available; Over 61.5, only $83 available; Under 61.5, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game
FPI	-8.0	-291
Sagarin	-9.0	-309
Massey	-7.5	-260
Market (18 books)	-13.5	-526

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	59.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5	-103	-109	+1.4%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	+456	+403	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 62.0	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 4.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western Michigan

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Western Michigan -13.5

should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Western Michigan by 13.5TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

Western Michigan by 18.55 pts our side

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 184.6 pts our side

Massey

Western Michigan by 16.52.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 14.51.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Western Michigan. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

412.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-13.5 -114	43.5 -110	-560	+390
Kalshi	-13.5 -126 54¢	—	-564 84¢	—
Pinnacle	-14 -101	43.5 -111	-611	+422

All 22 books

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-13.5 -114	43.5 -110	-560	+390
Kalshi	-13.5 -126 54¢	—	-564 84¢	—
Bally Bet	-13.5 -109	43.5 -113	-715	+475
BetAnything	-14 -110	43.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-13.5 -112	43.5 -110	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -114	43.5 -110	-560	+421
betPARX	-13.5 -109	43.5 -113	-715	+475
BetRivers	-13.5 -110	43.5 -115	-715	+475
BetUS	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-560	+430
Bovada	-14 +100	43.5 -110	-600	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -110	43.5 -113	-553	+439
DraftKings	-13.5 -112	43.5 -115	-575	+425
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 56¢ -138 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -118	43.5 -110	-720	+500
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	43.5 -110	-700	+475
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -110	43.5 -108	-560	+421
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-725	+490
Pinnacle	-14 -101	43.5 -111	-611	+422
Polymarket	—	—	-525	+456
ReBet	-13.5 -125	43.5 -116	-800	+450
theScore Bet	-13.5 -120	43.5 -110	-800	+500

Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Western Michigan): DraftKings or BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.5%) · TOM -13.5 at -114 (1.0%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (0.8%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.2%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 54¢ (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -560 at TOM

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): TOM or Kalshi -560 (-0.6%) · DraftKings -575 (-1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -600 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -720 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 87¢ on the app (-809 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-6.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $0 available; Over 44.5, only $134 available; Under 44.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	-18.5	-790
Sagarin	-18.0	-749
Massey	-16.5	-590
Market (18 books)	-13.5	-536

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -13.5	-114	-119	+1.0%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-560	-533	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Under 54

should be 51.9 · getting 2.1 pts · was 51.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 54.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans UCF too: market says Oklahoma State by 9, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 9TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UCF's last game

FPI

Oklahoma State by 26.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 5.53.5 pts our side

Massey

UCF by 19.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 7.51.5 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

46.87.2 pts under the market

Massey

48.25.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.56.5 pts under the market

Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-9 -105	54 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5	53.5 -107 50¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -101	54 -108	-387	+294

All 22 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-9 -105	54 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5	53.5 -107 50¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -109	53.5 -108	-400	+295
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	54 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-9 -108	53.5 -110	-375	+290
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -105	54 -110	-370	+296
betPARX	-9.5 -109	53.5 -108	-400	+295
BetRivers	-9.5 -110	53 -114	-400	+295
BetUS	-8.5 -110	54 -110	-370	+295
Bovada	-9.5 -115	54 -110	-390	+295
Courtside	-9.5 -110	53.5 -113	-369	+308
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	53.5 -115	-380	+300
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	54 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	53.5 -114	-375	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -110	53.5 -110	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -101	54 -108	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	53.5 -110	-360	+275
Pinnacle	-10 -101	54 -108	-387	+294
Polymarket	-8.5	53.5 -113	—	+317
ReBet	-9.5 -114	53.5 -116	-380	+260
theScore Bet	-9.5 -105	53.5 -115	-360	+280

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +9.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (0.5%) · BetMGM +9 at -110 (0.4%) · TOM +9 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

UCF to win · +313 (23¢) at Kalshi

We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): Kalshi 23¢ (2.6%) · DraftKings +300 (1.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +290 (1.1%) · TOM +280 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 26¢ on the app (+257 all-in) (-1.2%).

Off the band

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 48. That's 6.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (2.7%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -106 (2.4%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (2.0%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma State Cowboys -9.5, only $0 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys -8.5, only $21 available; Under 53.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UCF's last game
FPI	-2.0	-118
Sagarin	-5.5	-192
Massey	+1.0	+103
Market (18 books)	-9.0	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +9.5	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+313	+273	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia Tech

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Over 49.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 52

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Duke by 7TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

Duke by 81.1 pts against us

FPI

Duke by 80.9 pts against us

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 18 pts our side

Massey

Duke by 24.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Duke by 6.50.6 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Georgia Tech. SP+ at Duke by 8 and FPI at Duke by 8 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

55.15.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.55 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

533.5 pts over the market

Over 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+7 -109	49.5 -110	+215	-275
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-276 72¢
Pinnacle	+7 -109	50 -108	+223	-278

All 22 books

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+7 -109	49.5 -110	+215	-275
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-276 72¢
Bally Bet	+7 -113	50 -109	+215	-275
BetAnything	+7 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7 -105	49.5 -110	+220	-275
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	49.5 -110	+226	-275
betPARX	+7 -113	50 -109	+215	-275
BetRivers	+7 -114	50 -110	+210	-275
BetUS	+7 -110	49.5 -110	+230	-275
Bovada	+7 -110	50 -110	+225	-275
Courtside	+7 -108	49.5 -106	+225	-263
DraftKings	+7 -110	49.5 -108	+220	-270
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in	75¢ -335 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	50 -110	+225	-280
FanDuel	+6.5 +100	49.5 -110	+210	-260
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 +100	49.5 -115	+220	-275
LowVig.ag	+7 -104	49.5 -108	+226	-275
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	49.5 -110	+230	-295
Pinnacle	+7 -109	50 -108	+223	-278
Polymarket	—	—	+223	—
ReBet	+7.5 -125	49.5 -114	+218	-310
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	49.5 -110	+210	-250

Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech +7.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): BetMGM +7 at -105 (2.5%) · TOM +7 at -109 (1.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +7 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +6.5 at +101 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · +215 at TOM

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): Fanatics +225 (1.4%) · BetMGM or DraftKings +220 (1.0%) · Kalshi 30¢ (0.7%) · TOM +215 (0.5%) · FanDuel +210 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -108 (1.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 75°F, 38% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $74 available; Duke Blue Devils -6.5, only $387 available; Over 49.5, only $178 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +225 here against +253 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.0	+291
FPI	+8.0	+285
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	+2.0	+117
Market (18 books)	+7.0	+225

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.0	-109	-116	+1.5%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+215	+210	+0.5%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +253 consensus.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Pittsburgh to win

our data says 66 in 100 · -175

Sniff of Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Pittsburgh by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 5.5. At -175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 4.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

Pittsburgh by 8.54.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 105.6 pts our side

Massey

Pittsburgh by 94.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Pittsburgh by 5.50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

41.35.7 pts under the market

Massey

48.81.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

45.11.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-4.5 -113	47 -110	-185	+155
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5	-175 62¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -117	47 -108	-190	+159

All 22 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-4.5 -113	47 -110	-185	+155
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5	-175 62¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -109	47 -108	-186	+150
BetAnything	-5 -110	47 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4.5 -108	47.5 -105	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -113	47 -110	-185	+161
betPARX	-4 -109	47 -108	-186	+150
BetRivers	-4 -110	47 -109	-186	+148
BetUS	-4.5 -115	47 -110	-185	+159
Bovada	-4 -110	47 -110	-185	+160
Courtside	-4.5 -108	46.5 -120	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -108	47.5 -102	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 57¢ -144 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-4.5 -105	47 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-4.5 -104	46.5 -122	-182	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -115	46.5 -115	-185	+150
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -109	47 -108	-185	+161
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	47 -110	-218	+174
Pinnacle	-3.5 -117	47 -108	-190	+159
Polymarket	-4.5	—	-178	+156
ReBet	-4.5 -114	46.5 -119	-228	+166
theScore Bet	-4.5 -105	46.5 -110	-175	+150

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -4.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): FanDuel -4.5 at -104 (0.6%) · Fanatics -4.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or DraftKings -4.5 at -107 (-0.2%) · TOM -4.5 at -113 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Pittsburgh to win · -175 (62¢) at Kalshi

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): Kalshi 62¢ (2.0%) · FanDuel -182 (1.1%) · TOM -185 (0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -190 (0.1%) · DraftKings -192 (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at +100 (0.2%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -118 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 54¢ (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -175 (62¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $49 available; Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5, only $80 available; Over 47.5, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	-8.5	-302
Sagarin	-10.0	-341
Massey	-9.0	-305
Market (18 books)	-4.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	-175	-191	+2.0%
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5	-104	-107	+0.6%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.9 consensus.

UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at Memphis

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Memphis -14

should be Memphis -15.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · MemphisBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Memphis. Market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 14TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game

FPI

Memphis by 19.55.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Memphis by 19.55.5 pts our side

Massey

Memphis by 17.53.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Memphis by 15.51.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Memphis. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.93.4 pts over the market

Massey

58.51 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.72.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14 -112	57.5 -105	-600	+430
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	56.5	-660 86¢	—
Pinnacle	-14.5 +102	57 -112	-647	+441

All 22 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14 -112	57.5 -105	-600	+430
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	56.5	-660 86¢	—
Bally Bet	-14.5 -110	58.5 -108	-1000	+600
BetAnything	-14 -110	58 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-14 -115	57.5 -108	-625	+475
BetOnline.ag	-14 -112	57.5 -105	-600	+446
betPARX	-14.5 -110	58.5 -108	-1000	+600
BetRivers	-14.5 -113	58.5 -109	-1000	+600
BetUS	-14 -110	57.5 -105	-600	+450
Bovada	-14 -110	57 -115	-650	+450
Courtside	-14 -108	57.5 -110	-576	+455
DraftKings	-14 -110	57.5 -112	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics	-14 -110	57.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	56.5 -114	-690	+480
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -110	58.5 -110	-700	+450
LowVig.ag	-14 -108	57.5 -103	-600	+446
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	57.5 -110	-631	+444
Pinnacle	-14.5 +102	57 -112	-647	+441
Polymarket	—	—	-567	—
ReBet	-14.5 -109	57.5 -114	-649	+390
theScore Bet	-14.5 -110	56.5 -115	-800	+500

Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis -14.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Memphis): DraftKings or Fanatics -14 at -110 (1.0%) · TOM -14 at -112 (0.5%) · BetMGM -14 at -115 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · -600 at DraftKings

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Memphis to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -600 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -625 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 86¢ (-2.1%) · FanDuel -690 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 87¢ on the app (-809 all-in) (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 57.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (0.0%) · TOM 57.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -112 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -14.0 · -112 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $22 available; Over 56.5, only $46 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 15.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game
FPI	-19.5	-871
Sagarin	-19.5	-852
Massey	-17.5	-693
Market (18 books)	-14.0	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	59.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers -14.0	-112	-114	+0.5%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	-600	-557	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.4 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pm

Under 56

should be 53.5 · getting 2.5 pts · was 54

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 56.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 8.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon State by 14, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13. Nothing there.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 14TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game

FPI

Oregon State by 103.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon State by 10.53.5 pts our side

Massey

Oregon State by 8.55.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 131.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM, Under -115

The Four

SP+ pace

46.19.9 pts under the market

Massey

48.87.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.58.5 pts under the market

Under 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-14 -108	56 -105	-600	+430
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	—
Pinnacle	-14 -104	56 -103	-623	+428

All 22 books

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-14 -108	56 -105	-600	+430
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	—
Bally Bet	-13.5 -148	57.5 -103	-1000	+600
BetAnything	-14 -110	56 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-14 -108	55.5 -110	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-14 -105	56 -105	-600	+446
betPARX	-13.5 -136	57.5 -103	-835	+550
BetRivers	-13.5 -148	57.5 -104	-1000	+600
BetUS	-14 -105	56 -105	-600	+450
Bovada	-14 -105	55.5 -110	-625	+430
Courtside	-14 -106	55.5 -118	-576	+455
DraftKings	-14 -108	56.5 -105	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 57¢ -144 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	55.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-14.5 +100	55.5 -110	-610	+440
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -145	57.5 +120	-1000	+600
LowVig.ag	-14 -101	56 -103	-600	+446
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	55.5 -110	-625	+430
Pinnacle	-14 -104	56 -103	-623	+428
Polymarket	—	—	-614	+456
ReBet	-14.5 -109	55.5 -114	-676	+400
theScore Bet	-13.5 -115	55.5 -110	-700	+450

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +14.0 · -112 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San Diego State): BetMGM +14 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings or TOM +14 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -122 (0.0%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

San Diego State to win · +430 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): BetMGM +450 (0.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +440 (0.5%) · TOM +430 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 49. That's 8.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -115 (4.0%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (3.1%) · TOM 56 at -115 (2.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward San Diego State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: San Diego State Aztecs +14.5, only $193 available; Under 55.5, only $390 available; San Diego State Aztecs ML, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 1330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game
FPI	-10.0	-344
Sagarin	-10.5	-363
Massey	-8.5	-303
Market (18 books)	-14.0	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +14.0	-112	-113	+0.3%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+430	+425	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-115	-129	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at Nebraska

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Under 52

weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total

Sniff of Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 52, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Indiana by 7TOM, -101

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game

FPI

Indiana by 7

Sagarin

Indiana by 5

Massey

Indiana by 11

Nasty Number

Indiana by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.32.3 pts over the market

Massey

52on the market

Weather

-2.116 mph wind, takes 2.1 points off

Nasty Number

51.10.9 pts under the market

Under 52 is a weather call. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7 -101	52 -107	+230	-305
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	52.5 -112 51¢	+252 27¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -115	51.5 -119	+249	-317

All 22 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7 -101	52 -107	+230	-305
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	52.5 -112 51¢	+252 27¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+8 -112	52 -108	+260	-335
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7.5 -110	52.5 -105	+240	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7 +100	52 -107	+249	-305
betPARX	+8 -112	52 -108	+260	-335
BetRivers	+8 -113	52 -109	+255	-335
BetUS	+7.5 -110	51.5 -110	+253	-305
Bovada	+7.5 -115	52 -110	+255	-310
Courtside	+7.5 -115	52.5 -105	+251	-297
DraftKings	+7.5 -115	51.5 -118	+245	-305
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 56¢ -138 all-in	51.5 55¢ -132 all-in	29¢ +223 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+7.5 -115	52 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -110	51.5 -115	+245	-310
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -105	51.5 -110	+260	-325
LowVig.ag	+7 +104	52 -105	+249	-305
MyBookie.ag	—	51.5 -110	+248	-319
Pinnacle	+7.5 -115	51.5 -119	+249	-317
Polymarket	+7.5	—	+257	-270
ReBet	+7.5 -114	51.5 -119	+236	-340
theScore Bet	+7.5 -110	51.5 -115	+250	-300

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -7.0 · -119 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Indiana): Kalshi -7.5 at 49¢ (-2.1%) · TOM -7 at -119 (-2.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (-2.6%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -110 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · -305 at DraftKings

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Indiana to win): BetMGM -300 (-2.7%) · DraftKings or TOM -305 (-3.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -310 (-3.3%) · Kalshi 75¢ (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 77¢ on the app (-376 all-in) (-6.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 52.0 · -113 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 2.1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 52.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · TOM 52 at -113 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $8 available; Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $90 available; Over 51.5, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +240 here against +288 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game
FPI	+7.0	+228
Sagarin	+5.0	+186
Massey	+11.0	+380
Market (18 books)	+7.0	+240

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -7.0	-119	-108	-2.4%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	-305	-261	-3.0%
Total	Under 52.0	-113	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.7 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +288 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at Temple

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pm

Over 54.5

should be 55.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 53

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Temple by 4, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Temple by 4TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game

FPI

Temple by 5

Sagarin

Temple by 4.5

Massey

Temple by 0.5

Nasty Number

Temple by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Temple by 3.5 to Temple by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

61.26.7 pts over the market

Massey

58.43.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.85.3 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-4 -115	54.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-4.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-200 65¢	—
Pinnacle	-4 -109	54 -115	-192	+161

All 22 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-4 -115	54.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-4.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-200 65¢	—
Bally Bet	-3.5 -112	54.5 -112	-182	+148
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-4 -110	54.5 -108	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4 -115	54.5 -110	-190	+165
betPARX	-3.5 -112	54.5 -112	-182	+148
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	54.5 -114	-186	+148
BetUS	-4 -115	54 -110	-190	+163
Bovada	-4 -110	54.5 -110	-195	+165
Courtside	-4.5 -108	54.5 -103	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4.5 -108	54.5 -105	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	54.5 -110	-195	+160
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	-176	+146
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-4 -111	54.5 -108	-190	+165
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	54.5 -110	-199	+160
Pinnacle	-4 -109	54 -115	-192	+161
Polymarket	—	—	-186	—
ReBet	-4.5 -109	54.5 -114	-208	+153
theScore Bet	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	-170	+145

Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple -3.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Temple): FanDuel -3.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -4 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -108 (-3.0%) · TOM -4 at -115 (-3.3%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 51¢ (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Temple to win · -176 at FanDuel

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Temple to win): FanDuel -176 (-0.7%) · DraftKings -185 (-1.8%) · BetMGM or TOM -190 (-2.4%) · Fanatics -195 (-3.0%) · Kalshi 65¢ (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 5.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 54.5 at -105 (2.2%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.6%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $1 available; UConn Huskies ML, only $134 available; Temple Owls -4.5, only $251 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTemple by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game
FPI	-5.0	-184
Sagarin	-4.5	-175
Massey	-0.5	-102
Market (18 books)	-4.0	-182

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	59.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls -3.5	-115	-106	-2.0%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	-176	-171	-0.7%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at Arkansas

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pm

Over 50.5

should be 52.5 · getting 2 pts · was 54.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Tennessee by 13.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 15.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 9.5

Massey

Tennessee by 10.5

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 130.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Over -109

The Four

SP+ pace

59.79.2 pts over the market

Massey

57.46.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

58.68.1 pts over the market

Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	50.5 -109	+400	-570
Kalshi	+13.5	49.5 -126 54¢	+426 18¢	-524 83¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -104	51 -106	+408	-585

All 22 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	50.5 -109	+400	-570
Kalshi	+13.5	49.5 -126 54¢	+426 18¢	-524 83¢
Bally Bet	+13.5 -109	51 -110	+400	-590
BetAnything	+13.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+13.5 -108	50.5 -110	+425	-550
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -107	50.5 -109	+428	-570
betPARX	+13.5 -109	51 -110	+400	-590
BetRivers	+13.5 -110	51 -112	+390	-590
BetUS	+13.5 -110	50.5 -110	+435	-570
Bovada	+13.5 -105	51 -105	+410	-585
Courtside	+13.5 -103	50.5 -110	+423	-530
DraftKings	+13.5 -105	50.5 -112	+410	-550
DraftKings Predictions	+13.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	21¢ +335 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in
Fanatics	+13.5 -105	50.5 -115	+425	-575
FanDuel	+13.5 -105	50.5 -106	+440	-610
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -110	50.5 -120	+400	-600
LowVig.ag	+13.5 -103	50.5 -107	+428	-570
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+440	-649
Pinnacle	+13.5 -104	51 -106	+408	-585
Polymarket	—	49.5	+426	—
ReBet	+13.5 -105	50.5 -119	+410	-676
theScore Bet	+13.5 -105	50.5 -105	+425	-650

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +13.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +13.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · TOM +13.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +440 at FanDuel

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): FanDuel +440 (0.5%) · Kalshi, Fanatics or BetMGM +426 (-0.0%) · DraftKings +410 (-0.6%) · TOM +400 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 21¢ on the app (+335 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -109 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 8.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (3.5%) · TOM 50.5 at -109 (2.8%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (2.1%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 54¢ (1.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -109 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $17 available; Over 49.5, only $5 available; Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $392 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +418 here against +521 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game
FPI	+15.5	+560
Sagarin	+9.5	+312
Massey	+10.5	+365
Market (18 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	58.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5	-107	-103	-0.8%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+440	+427	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-109	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus; moneyline +418 here against +521 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia Southern

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Under 54.5

weather: 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the total

Sniff of Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 54.5, for the weather. 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

James Madison by 7.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

James Madison by 11

Sagarin

James Madison by 7.5

Massey

James Madison by 14

Nasty Number

James Madison by 91.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.14.4 pts under the market

Massey

56.72.2 pts over the market

Weather

-2.414 mph wind, 55% chance of rain, takes 2.4 points off

Nasty Number

513.5 pts under the market

Under 54.5 is a weather call. 14 mph wind and 55% chance of rain, worth about 2.4 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -110	54.5 -107	+255	-330
Kalshi	+7.5	54.5	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+8 -110	53.5 -115	+265	-342

All 22 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -110	54.5 -107	+255	-330
Kalshi	+7.5	54.5	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -109	53.5 -112	+275	-360
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7.5 -108	54.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -110	54.5 -115	+267	-330
betPARX	+8.5 -109	53.5 -112	+275	-360
BetRivers	+8.5 -110	53.5 -113	+275	-375
BetUS	+7.5 -110	54.5 -115	+270	-330
Bovada	+7.5 -110	54 -110	+270	-340
Courtside	+7.5 -105	54.5 -110	+282	-335
DraftKings	+7.5 -105	54.5 -112	+275	-345
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in
Fanatics	+8 -110	54.5 -110	+270	-340
FanDuel	+7.5 -106	54.5 -110	+255	-320
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	53.5 -110	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -106	54.5 -114	+267	-330
MyBookie.ag	+8 -110	54.5 -110	+255	-330
Pinnacle	+8 -110	53.5 -115	+265	-342
Polymarket	+7.5 -108	—	+270	—
ReBet	+8.5 -116	54.5 -116	+240	-350
theScore Bet	+7.5 -105	54.5 -110	+260	-320

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -7.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): BetMGM or TOM -7.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -114 (-0.9%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -7.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -330 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (James Madison to win): FanDuel -320 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -325 (-1.2%) · TOM -330 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -340 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -345 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 54.5 · -113 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 2.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.8%) · Fanatics or FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (1.0%) · TOM 54.5 at -113 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 73°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern).

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5, only $0 available; Over 54.5, only $148 available; James Madison Dukes -7.5, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +310 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	+11.0	+374
Sagarin	+7.5	+280
Massey	+14.0	+475
Market (18 books)	+7.5	+266

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -7.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-330	-305	-1.4%
Total	Under 54.5	-113	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +310 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana Tech

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 48Moved our way · 2 pts

should be 49.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Louisiana Tech by 2.5TOM, -120

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game

FPI

Louisiana Tech by 1

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 6.5

Massey

Louisiana Tech by 2

Nasty Number

Louisiana Tech by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

52.54.5 pts over the market

Massey

54.26.2 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

51.63.6 pts over the market

Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	—	-155 59¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -105	48 -107	-145	+124

All 22 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	—	-155 59¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -112	48.5 -110	-141	+115
BetAnything	-3 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -108	48.5 -102	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
betPARX	-2.5 -112	48.5 -110	-141	+115
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	48.5 -113	-141	+115
BetUS	-3 -110	48 -105	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -105	48 -105	-145	+125
Courtside	-3 -106	48.5 -106	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -108	47.5 -118	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in	48.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	48 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	48.5 -110	-152	+126
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	-140	+115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	48 -108	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	48 -110	-150	+122
Pinnacle	-3 -105	48 -107	-145	+124
Polymarket	-2.5	—	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -128	47.5 -119	-159	+119
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	48.5 -110	-155	+135

Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech -2.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Louisiana Tech): TOM -2.5 at -120 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (-3.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -122 (-3.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -3 at -108 (-4.2%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Louisiana Tech to win · -145 at TOM

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Louisiana Tech to win): TOM -145 (-3.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -150 (-3.9%) · FanDuel -152 (-4.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -155 (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48.5 at -102 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -118 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $49 available; Under 48.5, only $34 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $194 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana Tech by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game
FPI	-1.0	-107
Sagarin	-6.5	-211
Massey	-2.0	-118
Market (18 books)	-2.5	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5	-120	-106	-3.2%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	-145	-128	-3.1%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 55

should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 58.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 1.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen USC and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 1.5

Sagarin

Penn State by 2.5

Massey

Penn State by 4

Nasty Number

Penn State by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

60.85.8 pts over the market

Massey

57.12.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

594 pts over the market

Over 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-1.5 -115	55 -105	-126	+106
Kalshi	-1.5	55.5	-116 52¢	-107 50¢
Pinnacle	-1 -106	54 -112	-111	-105

All 22 books

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-1.5 -115	55 -105	-126	+106
Kalshi	-1.5	55.5	-116 52¢	-107 50¢
Bally Bet	PK -109	54.5 -112	-109	-112
BetAnything	-2 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1.5 -108	54.5 -112	-115	-102
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -112	55 -105	-120	+100
betPARX	PK -109	54.5 -112	-109	-112
BetRivers	PK -110	54.5 -113	-110	-113
BetUS	-1.5 -110	55 -105	-120	+100
Bovada	-1 -110	54 -115	-110	-110
Courtside	-1.5 -105	54.5 -110	-116	+100
DraftKings	-1.5 -105	54.5 -112	-118	-102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics	-1 -110	54.5 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	54.5 -118	-114	-105
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 +100	54.5 -110	-110	-110
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -108	55 -103	-120	+100
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-121	-101
Pinnacle	-1 -106	54 -112	-111	-105
Polymarket	—	—	-113	—
ReBet	-1.5 -114	54.5 -114	-126	-105
theScore Bet	-1.5 -105	54.5 -120	-115	-105

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -1.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): Fanatics -1 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -1.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -1.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · TOM -1.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -114 at FanDuel

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 53. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Penn State to win): FanDuel -114 (-0.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi -115 (-0.5%) · DraftKings -118 (-1.2%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions -126 (54¢ on the app) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (1.8%) · TOM 55 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (1.4%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -118 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5, only $17 available; Over 55.5, only $95 available; Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5, only $377 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -121 here against -104 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 1.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen USC and Penn State's last game
FPI	-1.5	-113
Sagarin	-2.5	-120
Massey	-4.0	-170
Market (18 books)	-1.5	-121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -1.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-114	-113	-0.3%
Total	Over 55.0	-105	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.2.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus; moneyline -121 here against -104 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at Akron

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Akron +7

should be Akron +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 5.5, but the market has moved 3.5 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Akron →

Market

Eastern Michigan by 7TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game

FPI

Eastern Michigan by 4.52.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Eastern Michigan by 1.55.7 pts our side

Massey

Eastern Michigan by 2.54.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eastern Michigan by 5.51.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.15.4 pts under the market

Massey

50.7on the market

Nasty Number

47.92.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+7 -115	50.5 -110	+215	-275
Kalshi	—	50.5	+217 30¢	—
Pinnacle	+7 -106	51 -108	+224	-280

All 22 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+7 -115	50.5 -110	+215	-275
Kalshi	—	50.5	+217 30¢	—
Bally Bet	+7 -114	50.5 -113	+235	-305
BetAnything	+7 -105	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7 -108	50.5 -112	+225	-275
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	50.5 -115	+234	-285
betPARX	+7 -114	50.5 -113	+235	-305
BetRivers	+7 -115	50.5 -115	+235	-305
BetUS	+7 -110	50.5 -115	+238	-285
Bovada	+7 -110	51 -110	+225	-275
Courtside	+7 -108	50.5 -113	+230	-271
DraftKings	+7 -110	50.5 -115	+225	-278
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	32¢ +194 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	50.5 -115	+230	-285
FanDuel	+6.5 +100	50.5 -110	+220	-275
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 +100	50.5 -110	+240	-300
LowVig.ag	+7 -106	50.5 -114	+234	-285
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	51 -110	+234	-300
Pinnacle	+7 -106	51 -108	+224	-280
Polymarket	+6.5 +104	—	—	-245
ReBet	+7.5 -125	50.5 -119	+222	-319
theScore Bet	+6.5 +100	50.5 -110	+225	-275

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +7.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Akron): BetMGM +7 at -108 (3.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +7 at -110 (3.3%) · TOM +7 at -115 (2.2%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Akron to win · +230 at Fanatics

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Akron loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Akron to win): Fanatics +230 (3.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +225 (3.2%) · FanDuel +220 (2.7%) · Kalshi 30¢ (2.5%) · TOM +215 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (0.2%) · FanDuel or TOM 50.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-6.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 3.5 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +6.5, only $473 available; Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $0 available; Over 50.5, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +225 here against +260 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEastern Michigan by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game
FPI	+4.5	+176
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	+2.5	+120
Market (18 books)	+7.0	+225

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +7.0	-108	-126	+3.8%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+230	+194	+3.7%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +260 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at Army

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Tulane +3.5

should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Army →

Market

Army by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Army's last game

FPI

Army by 21.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Army by 7.54.4 pts against us

Massey

Tulane by 13.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Army by 30.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Tulane. Sagarin at Army by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.50.5 pts over the market

Massey

44.82.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.20.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3 -115	47 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-3 -113	47 -113	-159	+135

All 21 books

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3 -115	47 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-167 61¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	45.5 -120	-165	+135
BetAnything	-3 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -118	47.5 -108	-165	+140
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	47 -110	-155	+135
betPARX	-3 -115	45.5 -120	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3 -117	45.5 -122	-167	+135
BetUS	-3 -115	47 -110	-155	+134
Bovada	-3 -115	47.5 -110	-160	+135
Courtside	-3 -113	47.5 -106	-163	+143
DraftKings	-3 -115	47.5 -108	-166	+140
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 57¢ -144 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	47.5 -105	-160	+135
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	47.5 -110	-162	+134
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	45.5 -135	-165	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 -111	47 -108	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	47.5 -110	-166	+135
Pinnacle	-3 -113	47 -113	-159	+135
ReBet	-3.5 -103	47.5 -111	-174	+130
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	47.5 -110	-165	+140

Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulane): FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (1.3%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +3 at -105 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · +140 at DraftKings

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Tulane to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +140 (1.4%) · Fanatics, Kalshi or FanDuel +135 (0.5%) · TOM +130 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi 47.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · TOM 47 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $0 available; Army Black Knights -3.5, only $57 available; Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Army's last game
FPI	-2.0	-115
Sagarin	-7.5	-270
Massey	+1.0	+104
Market (18 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	46.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+140	+132	+1.4%
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +3.5	-115	-121	+1.3%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West Virginia

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Arizona -3.5

should be Arizona -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Arizona by 3.5TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game

FPI

Arizona by 51.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em3.5 pts against us

Massey

Arizona by 62.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 3.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Arizona. Sagarin at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

59.9on the market

Massey

58.41.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.20.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -116	60 -110	+131	-161
Kalshi	+3.5	59.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3 +100	60 -109	+140	-165

All 21 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -116	60 -110	+131	-161
Kalshi	+3.5	59.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -114	59.5 -109	+138	-167
BetAnything	+3.5 -115	59 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	59.5 -112	+135	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -113	60 -110	+139	-159
betPARX	+3.5 -114	59.5 -109	+138	-167
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	59.5 -110	+138	-175
BetUS	+3.5 -115	59 -110	+138	-160
Bovada	+3 +100	60 -110	+140	-165
Courtside	+3.5 -115	59.5 -110	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3.5 -115	59.5 -112	+140	-166
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 56¢ -138 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	60 -110	+135	-160
FanDuel	+3.5 -122	60.5 -110	+132	-160
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	59.5 -110	+140	-165
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -109	60 -108	+139	-159
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	59.5 -110	+135	-166
Pinnacle	+3 +100	60 -109	+140	-165
ReBet	+3.5 -125	59.5 -114	+129	-173
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	+140	-165

Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -3.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Arizona): Kalshi or FanDuel -3.5 at +101 (0.4%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · TOM -3.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -3.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Arizona to win · -161 at FanDuel

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Arizona to win): FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -160 (0.4%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -165 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 62¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · Fanatics or TOM 60 at -110 (-1.6%) · BetMGM 59.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 59.5 at -107 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5, only $432 available; West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5, only $228 available; Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +137 here against +152 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game
FPI	+5.0	+186
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	+6.0	+199
Market (18 books)	+3.5	+137

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	59.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Wildcats -3.5	+101	-101	+0.4%
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	-161	-163	+0.2%
Total	Under 60.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +152 consensus.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at Ohio

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Ohio -3

should be Ohio -3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 3TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game

FPI

Ohio by 41.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Ohio by 3.50.3 pts our side

Massey

Ohio by 74 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio by 30.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.13.4 pts under the market

Massey

48.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

45.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-3 -110	46.5 -115	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5	47.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -105	47 -106	-151	+128

All 22 books

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-3 -110	46.5 -115	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5	47.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -113	47.5 -114	-148	+118
BetAnything	-3 -105	46.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -108	46.5 -110	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	47 -105	-148	+128
betPARX	-2.5 -113	47.5 -114	-148	+118
BetRivers	-2.5 -115	47.5 -115	-148	+118
BetUS	-3 -110	47 -105	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -105	47 -105	-150	+130
Courtside	-3 -106	46.5 -113	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -108	46.5 -115	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in	45.5 56¢ -138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -110	47 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	46.5 -112	-142	+118
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-145	+120
LowVig.ag	-3 -104	47 -103	-148	+128
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	46.5 -110	-150	+122
Pinnacle	-3 -105	47 -106	-151	+128
Polymarket	-2.5	—	-144	—
ReBet	-2.5 -125	46.5 -116	-156	+117
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	46.5 -115	-135	+115

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -2.5 · -120 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ohio): FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (0.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -3 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or TOM -3 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · -148 at DraftKings

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Ohio to win): FanDuel -142 (0.7%) · BetMGM -145 (0.2%) · DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi -148 (-0.3%) · Fanatics -150 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings or TOM 46.5 at -115 (-3.0%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $178 available; Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $381 available; Over 47.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game
FPI	-4.0	-173
Sagarin	-3.5	-152
Massey	-7.0	-246
Market (18 books)	-3.0	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -2.5	-120	-121	+0.2%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-148	-146	-0.3%
Total	Over 46.5	-115	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.

Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at California

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

California +9

should be California +7.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 7.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore California →

Market

Virginia Tech by 9TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and California's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 9.50.5 pts against us

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 45 pts our side

Massey

Virginia Tech by 45 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 7.51.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean California. FPI at Virginia Tech by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.82.7 pts under the market

Massey

55.12.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9 -110	52.5 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9 -108	53 -111	+279	-363

All 22 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9 -110	52.5 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -110	54 -112	+270	-345
BetAnything	+9.5 -110	54 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+9 -108	53.5 -108	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9 -110	52.5 -110	+280	-350
betPARX	+8.5 -110	54 -112	+270	-345
BetRivers	+8.5 -112	54 -113	+265	-360
BetUS	+9 -110	54 -110	+280	-350
Bovada	+9 -110	53 -110	+280	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -110	53.5 -106	+287	-345
DraftKings	+9.5 -110	53.5 -108	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	53.5 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+9.5 -110	53.5 -115	+285	-365
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	54.5 -105	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+9 -106	52.5 -108	+280	-350
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	53.5 -110	+275	-360
Pinnacle	+9 -108	53 -111	+279	-363
Polymarket	—	—	+285	-317
ReBet	+9.5 -111	53.5 -111	+265	-391
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	54.5 -105	+280	-360

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): BetMGM +9 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (0.2%) · TOM +9 at -110 (0.1%) · Fanatics +8.5 at -110 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

California to win · +290 at BetMGM

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 22. Where, best first (California to win): BetMGM +290 (0.9%) · FanDuel +285 (0.6%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +280 (0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +275 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM or DraftKings 53.5 at -108 (-3.1%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (-3.9%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -115 (-4.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +9.0. The market has moved 3.8 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5, only $303 available; California Golden Bears +8.5, only $285 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -8.5, only $186 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +326 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and California's last game
FPI	+9.5	+315
Sagarin	+4.0	+170
Massey	+4.0	+170
Market (18 books)	+9.0	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+290	+277	+0.9%
Spread	California Golden Bears +9.0	-110	-111	+0.1%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.8.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +326 consensus.

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at Alabama

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Georgia +2

should be Georgia +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5, but the market has moved 4.5 points away from Georgia since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 2TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 11 pts our side

Sagarin

Alabama by 3.51.5 pts against us

Massey

Alabama by 10.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Alabama by 1.50.6 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Georgia. Sagarin at Alabama by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Georgia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.40.9 pts over the market

Massey

61.35.8 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

57.11.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-2 -115	55.5 -105	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	55.5 -103 49¢	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Pinnacle	-1.5 -109	55 -118	-118	+101

All 22 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-2 -115	55.5 -105	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	55.5 -103 49¢	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	-1 -112	55.5 -110	-118	-104
BetAnything	-2 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	55.5 -105	-120	+100
BetOnline.ag	-2 -112	55.5 -105	-125	+105
betPARX	-1 -112	55.5 -110	-118	-104
BetRivers	-1 -112	55.5 -112	-120	-105
BetUS	-2 -110	55.5 -105	-125	+105
Bovada	-1.5 -110	55.5 -110	-120	+100
Courtside	-1.5 -112	55.5 -106	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -112	55.5 -108	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 57¢ -144 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics	-1.5 -110	55.5 -110	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	55.5 -105	-111	-108
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -105	55.5 -110	-120	-105
LowVig.ag	-2 -108	55.5 -103	-125	+105
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-117	-104
Pinnacle	-1.5 -109	55 -118	-118	+101
Polymarket	-1.5 -108	—	—	+104
ReBet	-1.5 -109	55.5 -109	-122	-108
theScore Bet	-1.5 -105	55.5 +100	-110	-110

Marked: best for Georgia, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia +2.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Georgia): TOM +2 at -105 (0.1%) · BetMGM or DraftKings +1.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 51¢ (-2.4%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -115 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

Georgia to win · +110 at TOM

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Georgia to win): TOM +110 (0.0%) · DraftKings +102 (-1.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +100 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 49¢ (-3.1%) · FanDuel -108 (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 55.5 at 49¢ (-0.1%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 55.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 44% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5. The market has moved 4.5 away from Georgia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $75 available; Under 55.5, only $193 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $189 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -124 here against -109 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game
FPI	-1.0	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-161
Massey	-1.0	-106
Market (18 books)	-2.0	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Bulldogs +2.0	-105	-106	+0.1%
Moneyline	Georgia Bulldogs ML	+110	+110	+0.0%
Total	Over 55.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -124 here against -109 consensus.

Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at Northwestern

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30am

Northwestern -36

should be Northwestern -37 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 36.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 36TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ball State and Northwestern's last game

FPI

Northwestern by 39

Sagarin

Northwestern by 39

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 371.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 36. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

46.46.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.46.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 6.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-36 -108	53 -109	—	—

All 20 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Bally Bet	-34.5 -122	51.5 -112	—	—
BetAnything	-37.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-36 -108	52.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
betPARX	-34.5 -122	51.5 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-34.5 -124	51.5 -113	—	—
BetUS	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
Bovada	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
Courtside	-36.5 -106	52.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-36.5 -108	52.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-36.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 58¢ -150 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-36 -110	53 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -110	52.5 -108	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-34.5 -120	51.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-36 -106	53 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-36 -108	53 -109	—	—
ReBet	-35.5 -105	52.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-35.5 -110	52.5 -105	—	—

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -36.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): FanDuel -35.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM -36 at -108 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -36 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings -36.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -36.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Northwestern to win · —

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 100, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Kalshi or Fanatics — (0.2%).

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 53 at -110 (4.8%) · BetMGM or DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (3.4%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -112 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Northwestern).

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $232 available; Under 52.5, only $374 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 3740% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ball State and Northwestern's last game
FPI	-39.0	—
Sagarin	-39.0	—
Massey	rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (17 books)	-36.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -36.0	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	—	—	priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-134	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pm

App State -9.5

should be App State -9.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game

FPI

App State by 9.5

Sagarin

App State by 10.5

Massey

App State by 3

Nasty Number

App State by 9.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.13.9 pts under the market

Massey

53.72.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.40.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	51 -110	-365	+275
Kalshi	-9.5	50.5 -121 53¢	-381 78¢	—
Pinnacle	-10 -104	51 -109	-393	+298

All 22 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	51 -110	-365	+275
Kalshi	-9.5	50.5 -121 53¢	-381 78¢	—
Bally Bet	-9.5 -125	51.5 -112	-455	+340
BetAnything	-10 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10 -108	50.5 -118	-375	+290
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	51 -110	-365	+292
betPARX	-9.5 -125	51.5 -112	-455	+340
BetRivers	-9.5 -127	51.5 -113	-480	+340
BetUS	-9.5 -115	51 -110	-365	+293
Bovada	-10 -105	51 -110	-390	+295
Courtside	-9.5 -112	50.5 -118	-350	+293
DraftKings	-9.5 -112	50.5 -120	-360	+285
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -115	51 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -115	50.5 -114	-385	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -125	51.5 -110	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -111	51 -108	-365	+292
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	51 -110	-410	+300
Pinnacle	-10 -104	51 -109	-393	+298
Polymarket	-8.5 -117	—	-355	+300
ReBet	-10.5 -105	50.5 -119	-429	+290
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	50.5 -115	-400	+300

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

App State -9.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (App State): DraftKings -9.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -9.5 at -115 (-3.1%) · BetMGM -10 at -108 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.5%).

Not Nasty

App State to win · -365 at TOM

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (App State to win): DraftKings -360 (-2.1%) · TOM -365 (-2.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -375 (-2.8%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -381 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 80¢ on the app (-456 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at +100 (-0.6%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $0 available; Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $92 available; Old Dominion Monarchs +8.5, only $83 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 9.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game
FPI	-9.5	-310
Sagarin	-10.5	-355
Massey	-3.0	-132
Market (18 books)	-9.5	-349

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5	-115	-102	-3.1%
Moneyline	Appalachian State Mountaineers ML	-365	-319	-2.4%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at Toledo

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Toledo -20

should be Toledo -20 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 20TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 19

Sagarin

Toledo by 22

Massey

Toledo by 20.5

Nasty Number

Toledo by 200 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.89.2 pts under the market

Massey

57.22.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.53.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-20 -110	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -107 50¢	54.5	-1236 92¢	+841 10¢
Pinnacle	-20 -111	55 -108	-1259	+710

All 21 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-20 -110	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -107 50¢	54.5	-1236 92¢	+841 10¢
Bally Bet	-17.5 -129	54.5 -117	-2000	+900
BetAnything	-20 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-20 -108	54.5 -118	-1400	+900
BetOnline.ag	-20 -110	55 -110	-1700	+945
betPARX	-17.5 -129	54.5 -117	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-17.5 -132	54.5 -118	-2000	+900
BetUS	-20 -110	55 -110	-1700	+950
Bovada	-20 -115	55 -110	-1300	+725
Courtside	-20.5 -106	54.5 -116	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-20.5 -108	54.5 -118	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	-19.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 55¢ -132 all-in	94¢ -2401 all-in	12¢ +614 all-in
Fanatics	-20.5 -110	55 -110	-1400	+850
FanDuel	-19.5 -112	54.5 -115	-1800	+920
Hard Rock Bet	-17.5 -130	54.5 -115	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-20 -106	55 -108	-1700	+945
MyBookie.ag	-20.5 -110	55 -110	-1299	+710
Pinnacle	-20 -111	55 -108	-1259	+710
ReBet	-20.5 -116	54.5 -125	-1408	+630
theScore Bet	-19.5 -110	54.5 -115	-2000	+1000

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -20.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): FanDuel -19.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · BetMGM -20 at -108 (-1.9%) · TOM -20 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -20.5 at -107 (-2.6%) · Fanatics -20.5 at -110 (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Toledo to win · -1236 (92¢) at Kalshi

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): Kalshi 92¢ (-2.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -1400 (-3.4%) · DraftKings -1450 (-3.6%) · FanDuel -1800 (-4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 94¢ on the app (-2401 all-in) (-6.0%).

Off the band

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -102 (2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 50¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.4%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $53 available; Over 55.5, only $73 available; Under 55.5, only $210 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 2040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game
FPI	-19.0	-835
Sagarin	-22.0	-1228
Massey	-20.5	-927
Market (18 books)	-20.0	-1186

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets -20.0	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	-1236	-896	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North Texas

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

North Texas -27.5

should be North Texas -27 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 27.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore North Texas →

Market

North Texas by 27.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Charlotte and North Texas's last game

FPI

North Texas by 26

Sagarin

North Texas by 29

Massey

North Texas by 26

Nasty Number

North Texas by 270.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 27.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

633 pts over the market

Massey

67.57.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

65.35.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-27.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
Pinnacle	-27.5 -113	59.5 -109	—	+1590

All 21 books

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-27.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
Bally Bet	-27.5 -110	60.5 -112	—	—
BetAnything	-27 -110	59 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-27.5 -110	59.5 -108	—	+1850
BetOnline.ag	-27.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-27.5 -110	60.5 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-27.5 -112	60.5 -113	—	—
BetUS	-27.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-27.5 -115	59.5 -110	—	+1300
Courtside	-27.5 -108	59.5 -106	—	+1878
DraftKings	-27.5 -110	59.5 -108	—	+1700
DraftKings Predictions	-27.5 54¢ -127 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-27.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	+1800
FanDuel	-27.5 -115	59.5 -105	—	+1600
Hard Rock Bet	-27.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-27.5 -106	59.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-27.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	+1325
Pinnacle	-27.5 -113	59.5 -109	—	+1590
ReBet	-27.5 -114	60.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-27.5 -110	59.5 -105	—	+2000

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +27.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): FanDuel +27.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · BetMGM +27.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +27.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +27.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.1%).

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +1749 at Fanatics

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): BetMGM or Fanatics +1850 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 5¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings +1700 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 60.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 68. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 59.5 at -105 (2.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -108 (1.4%) · Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (0.9%) · TOM 60 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened -25.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $122 available; Under 60.5, only $203 available; Over 59.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Texas by 2721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Charlotte and North Texas's last game
FPI	-26.0	-1954
Sagarin	-29.0	-3124
Massey	-26.0	-1951
Market (18 books)	-27.5	-3707

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	65.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +27.5	-105	-103	-0.4%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+1749	+2206	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Kansas State -2.5

should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston's last game

FPI

Houston by 1

Sagarin

Kansas State by 1

Massey

Kansas State by 5.5

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 20.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

63.57 pts over the market

Massey

57.71.2 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

58.82.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	55.5 -121 53¢	—	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	55.5 -119	-138	+118

All 22 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	55.5 -121 53¢	—	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -110	56 -109	-136	+112
BetAnything	-3 -105	55.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	56.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-140	+120
betPARX	-2.5 -110	56 -109	-136	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	56 -110	-137	+112
BetUS	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-140	+120
Bovada	-2.5 -115	56 -110	-140	+120
Courtside	-2.5 -115	56.5 -106	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	56.5 -108	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	55.5 -114	-144	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	55.5 -115	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	56.5 -108	-140	+120
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	56.5 -110	-145	+118
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	55.5 -119	-138	+118
Polymarket	—	—	-133	+117
ReBet	-2.5 -119	56.5 -111	-151	+113
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	56.5 -110	-140	+120

Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Houston): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +2.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

Houston to win · +117 at TOM

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Houston to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings +120 (0.4%) · TOM +117 (-0.2%) · Fanatics +115 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 45¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 58. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 56.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -106 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars +2.5, only $317 available; Under 55.5, only $121 available; Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston's last game
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.0	-106
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (18 books)	-2.5	-131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	58.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Cougars +2.5	-105	-102	-0.6%
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	+117	+118	-0.2%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.5.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Illinois -2.5

should be Illinois -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Illinois by 2.5TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game

FPI

Illinois by 1

Sagarin

Illinois by 0.5

Massey

Illinois by 3.5

Nasty Number

Illinois by 20.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Illinois by 3.5 to Illinois by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

57.58 pts over the market

Massey

48.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.13.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 -111	49.5 -105	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+3 -116	50 -105	+123	-145

All 22 books

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 -111	49.5 -105	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -107	49.5 -113	+115	-139
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -108	49.5 -110	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -112	49.5 -110	+115	-135
betPARX	+2.5 -107	49.5 -113	+115	-139
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	49.5 -114	+114	-141
BetUS	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+3 -120	49.5 -115	+125	-145
Courtside	+2.5 -112	49.5 -108	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -112	49.5 -110	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -106	49.5 -114	+114	-137
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+115	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -108	49.5 -108	+115	-135
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+115	-141
Pinnacle	+3 -116	50 -105	+123	-145
Polymarket	+2.5 +100	—	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -111	49.5 -114	+111	-147
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	50.5 -105	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +2.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan State): Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +2.5 at -107 (-1.2%) · TOM +2.5 at -111 (-2.1%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -112 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +117 at TOM

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): TOM +117 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (-0.7%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Kalshi +114 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 49. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 51¢ (0.5%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -114 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.2%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5, only $199 available; Under 49.5, only $459 available; Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game
FPI	+1.0	+106
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	+3.5	+155
Market (18 books)	+2.5	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +2.5	-105	-102	-0.7%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+117	+118	-0.3%
Total	Over 49.5	-105	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at Navy

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Navy -2.5

should be Navy -2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Navy →

Market

Navy by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulsa and Navy's last game

FPI

Tulsa by 1

Sagarin

Navy by 1.5

Massey

Navy by 6

Nasty Number

Navy by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.51 pts over the market

Massey

49.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.51 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	48.5 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	—	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-3 -106	49 -107	-146	+124

All 22 books

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	48.5 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	—	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -113	49.5 -114	-148	+120
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -102	48.5 -108	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	48.5 -105	-145	+125
betPARX	-2.5 -113	49.5 -114	-148	+120
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	49.5 -115	-148	+120
BetUS	-2.5 -115	48.5 -105	-145	+125
Bovada	-3 -110	49 -110	-145	+125
Courtside	-2.5 -115	48.5 -113	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	48.5 -115	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	48.5 -110	-145	+120
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	48.5 -104	-146	+122
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	49.5 -115	-145	+120
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	48.5 -103	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	-149	+121
Pinnacle	-3 -106	49 -107	-146	+124
Polymarket	—	—	-138	+122
ReBet	-2.5 -125	48.5 -114	-155	+117
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	48.5 +100	-145	+125

Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -2.5 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (-3.0%) · BetMGM -3 at -102 (-3.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.5%).

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -136 (56¢) at Kalshi

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Navy to win): Kalshi 56¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings -142 (-3.5%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, TOM or FanDuel -145 (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-6.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -104 (0.3%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $196 available; Navy Midshipmen -2.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulsa and Navy's last game
FPI	+1.0	+105
Sagarin	-1.5	-113
Massey	-6.0	-206
Market (18 books)	-2.5	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -2.5	-115	-102	-3.0%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-136	-123	-2.5%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.6.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre Dame

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Notre Dame -37.5

should be Notre Dame -37.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 37.5.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 37.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 40.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 36.5

Massey

Notre Dame by 33.5

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 37.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.61.4 pts under the market

Massey

55.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.2on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-38 +100	54.5 -104	—	—

All 20 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Bally Bet	-37.5 -110	54 -113	—	—
BetAnything	-38 -110	54 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-37.5 -110	54.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
betPARX	-37.5 -110	54 -113	—	—
BetRivers	-37.5 -112	54 -114	—	—
BetUS	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
Bovada	-38 +100	54.5 -105	—	—
Courtside	-37.5 -116	53.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-37.5 -118	53.5 -112	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-37.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-37.5 -108	54.5 -114	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-37.5 -110	54.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-37.5 -111	54 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-38 +100	54.5 -104	—	—
ReBet	-37.5 -119	54.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-37.5 -110	54.5 -115	—	—

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Notre Dame -37.5 · -108 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Notre Dame): FanDuel -37.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -37.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -37.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · DraftKings -37.5 at -118 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -37.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Notre Dame to win · —

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 100, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Notre Dame to win): Kalshi or Fanatics — (0.2%).

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (-1.6%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -114 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Notre Dame).

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $50 available; Under 54.5, only $75 available; Over 53.5, only $59 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.8 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 37.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	-40.5	—
Sagarin	-36.5	—
Massey	-33.5	—
Market (17 books)	-37.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -37.5	-108	-101	-1.7%
Moneyline	Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML	—	—	priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.8 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at Oklahoma

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutral

Texas -8

should be Texas -8 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Texas by 8TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Texas by 9.5

FPI

Texas by 14

Sagarin

Texas by 7

Massey

Texas by 7

Nasty Number

Texas by 80.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

35.83.7 pts under the market

Massey

40.61.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

38.21.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+8 -110	39.5 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+7.5	39.5	+266 26¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -101	39 -110	+267	-343

All 21 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+8 -110	39.5 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+7.5	39.5	+266 26¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -113	39.5 -110	+275	-360
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	39 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	39.5 -108	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+8 -105	39.5 -110	+274	-340
betPARX	+8.5 -113	39.5 -110	+275	-360
BetRivers	+8.5 -114	39.5 -112	+275	-375
BetUS	+8 -105	39.5 -110	+275	-340
Bovada	+8.5 -110	39 -110	+270	-340
Courtside	+7.5 -105	39.5 -108	+267	-316
DraftKings	+7.5 -105	39.5 -110	+260	-325
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	39.5 -110	+270	-340
FanDuel	+7.5 -102	39.5 -110	+260	-330
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	39.5 -110	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+8 -101	39.5 -108	+274	-340
MyBookie.ag	+8 -110	39.5 -110	+285	-380
Pinnacle	+7.5 -101	39 -110	+267	-343
Polymarket	—	—	—	-335
ReBet	+7.5 -111	39.5 -114	+242	-350
theScore Bet	+8.5 -115	39.5 -105	+260	-320

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +8.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oklahoma): BetMGM or Fanatics +8.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -102 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +7.5 at -105 (-2.2%) · TOM +8 at -110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oklahoma to win · +270 at Fanatics

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): Fanatics +270 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 26¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings +260 (-2.0%) · TOM +255 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 39.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 51¢ (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma).

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $385 available; Over 39.5, only $50 available; Oklahoma Sooners +8.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+318
FPI	+14.0	+489
Sagarin	+7.0	+233
Massey	+7.0	+249
Market (18 books)	+8.0	+266

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	38.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners +8.5	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners ML	+270	+287	-1.2%
Total	Under 39.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at Vanderbilt

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Vanderbilt +9.5

should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Ole Miss by 9.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 6

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 2.5

Massey

Ole Miss by 7

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 8.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

634 pts over the market

Massey

57.41.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60.21.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	59 -110	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5	58.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+10 -114	59 -110	+296	-391

All 21 books

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	59 -110	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5	58.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+10 -114	59 -109	+285	-375
BetAnything	+9.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+9 -108	58.5 -110	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+10 -116	59 -110	+299	-375
betPARX	+10 -114	59 -109	+285	-375
BetRivers	+10 -115	59 -110	+285	-385
BetUS	+9.5 -110	59.5 -110	+300	-375
Bovada	+9.5 -105	59 -110	+295	-390
Courtside	+9.5 -108	59.5 -103	+293	-350
DraftKings	+9.5 -108	59.5 -105	+285	-360
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 58¢ -150 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	59 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+8.5 -106	58.5 -108	+270	-345
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -105	58.5 -115	+275	-375
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	59 -110	+275	-360
Pinnacle	+10 -114	59 -110	+296	-391
Polymarket	—	—	—	-335
ReBet	+9.5 -109	59.5 -109	+260	-380
theScore Bet	+9.5 -115	58.5 -105	+270	-340

Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Fanatics +9.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -106 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +9 at -108 (-1.6%) · TOM +9.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Kalshi 24¢ (-0.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +290 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +285 (-1.2%) · TOM +280 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +270 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 58.5 at -108 (0.3%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 59 at -110 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 52¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -105 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $11 available; Vanderbilt Commodores +8.5, only $2 available; Ole Miss Rebels -8.5, only $461 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +343 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game
FPI	+6.0	+205
Sagarin	+2.5	+125
Massey	+7.0	+238
Market (17 books)	+9.5	+293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	60.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5	-105	-103	-0.5%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+296	+304	-0.5%
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +343 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at Oregon

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Oregon -12

should be Oregon -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 12TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Oregon by 10

FPI

Oregon by 13.5

Sagarin

Oregon by 14.5

Massey

Oregon by 14.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 12.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

63.84.8 pts over the market

Massey

59.90.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

61.92.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-12 -110	59 -110	-470	+340
Kalshi	-12.5	59.5 -116 52¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-12.5 -105	60 -108	-485	+353

All 22 books

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-12 -110	59 -110	-470	+340
Kalshi	-12.5	59.5 -116 52¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-12.5 -110	59.5 -110	-500	+375
BetAnything	-11.5 -110	59 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-11.5 -110	59.5 -108	-450	+360
BetOnline.ag	-12 -110	59 -110	-470	+364
betPARX	-12.5 -110	59.5 -110	-500	+375
BetRivers	-12.5 -112	59.5 -112	-530	+370
BetUS	-12 -110	59 -110	-470	+370
Bovada	-12 -110	60 -110	-490	+355
Courtside	-11.5 -108	59.5 -106	-440	+360
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	59.5 -108	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-12.5 -110	59.5 -110	-475	+360
FanDuel	-11.5 -110	60.5 -110	-490	+365
Hard Rock Bet	-12.5 -110	59.5 -110	-500	+375
LowVig.ag	-12 -106	59 -108	-470	+364
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	59 -110	-441	+330
Pinnacle	-12.5 -105	60 -108	-485	+353
Polymarket	-11.5	—	—	—
ReBet	-11.5 -114	60.5 -114	-469	+310
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	59.5 -115	-550	+380

Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -12.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM -11.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · TOM -12 at -110 (-1.4%) · Fanatics -12.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -11.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -430 (80¢) at Kalshi

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): Kalshi 80¢ (-0.2%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -450 (-0.9%) · TOM or Fanatics -470 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -490 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-4.1%).

Off the band

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 59 at -110 (1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -108 (0.3%) · Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 52¢ (-1.4%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -12.5, only $0 available; Under 59.5, only $0 available; Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $220 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-338
FPI	-13.5	-442
Sagarin	-14.5	-513
Massey	-14.5	-531
Market (18 books)	-12.0	-450

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -12.0	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-430	-423	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East Carolina

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pm

East Carolina -10

should be East Carolina -10 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore East Carolina →

Market

East Carolina by 10TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rice's last game

FPI

East Carolina by 10.5

Sagarin

East Carolina by 10

Massey

East Carolina by 14.5

Nasty Number

East Carolina by 100.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.51 pts under the market

Massey

47.22.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.91.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -110	49.5 -115	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5	49.5	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -109	50 -108	-408	+307

All 22 books

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -110	49.5 -115	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5	49.5	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-10 -103	49.5 -112	-400	+300
BetAnything	-10 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-10 -108	49.5 -110	-375	+310
BetOnline.ag	-10 -110	49.5 -115	-375	+299
betPARX	-10 -103	49.5 -112	-400	+300
BetRivers	-10 -104	49.5 -113	-400	+300
BetUS	-10 -110	49.5 -115	-375	+300
Bovada	-10 -110	50 -110	-410	+305
Courtside	-10 -108	49.5 -110	-369	+308
DraftKings	-10 -110	49.5 -112	-380	+300
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 56¢ -138 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	50 -110	-400	+310
FanDuel	-9.5 -114	49.5 -110	-410	+315
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 +105	49.5 -110	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-10 -106	49.5 -114	-375	+299
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	50 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-10 -109	50 -108	-408	+307
Polymarket	-10.5	—	-376	+317
ReBet	-10.5 -109	49.5 -116	-450	+295
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	49.5 -110	-425	+320

Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina -10.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (East Carolina): FanDuel -9.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · BetMGM -10 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -10 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · -375 at BetMGM

We make it 78 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 78 cents fair, a play under 74. Where, best first (East Carolina to win): BetMGM or TOM -375 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -380 (-1.4%) · Fanatics -400 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -410 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · TOM 49.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 51¢ (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward East Carolina). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates -9.5, only $188 available; Over 49.5, only $0 available; East Carolina Pirates -10.5, only $83 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEast Carolina by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rice's last game
FPI	-10.5	-371
Sagarin	-10.0	-344
Massey	-14.5	-525
Market (18 books)	-10.0	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -10.0	-110	-103	-1.5%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-375	-349	-1.2%
Total	Under 49.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pm

Maryland +34.5

should be Maryland +34 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 34.5.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 34.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 33.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 29

Massey

Ohio State by 31

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 340.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 34.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.22.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.62.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.92.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-34.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-34.5 -106	56 -108	—	—

All 20 books

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-34.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-35 -107	56 -108	—	—
BetAnything	-34.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-34.5 -108	56.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-35 -107	56 -108	—	—
BetRivers	-35 -108	56 -109	—	—
BetUS	-34.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-34.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
Courtside	-34.5 -103	56.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-34.5 -105	56.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-34.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-34.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-34.5 -118	56.5 -110	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-34.5 -115	55.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-34.5 -106	56.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-34.5 -106	56 -108	—	—
ReBet	-34.5 -119	56.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-34.5 -120	56.5 -110	—	—

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +34.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Maryland): FanDuel +34.5 at -104 (1.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +34.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +34.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +34.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.7%).

Blowout line

Maryland to win · +6000 at BetMGM

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Maryland to win): Kalshi 1¢ (0.5%) · BetMGM +6000 (-0.1%) · Fanatics +3500 (-1.2%).

Off the band

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 56.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Maryland).

Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $250 available; Over 55.5, only $82 available; Under 55.5, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 3421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-33.5	—
Sagarin	-29.0	-3140
Massey	-31.0	-3897
Market (17 books)	-34.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +34.5	-104	-110	+1.3%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+6000	+6395	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at Marshall

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Marshall -3

should be Marshall -3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

Marshall by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game

FPI

Marshall by 0.5

Sagarin

Marshall by 3

Massey

Marshall by 5.5

Nasty Number

Marshall by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

66.69.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.14.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -115	57 -130	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	57.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -109	58.5 -107	-155	+132

All 21 books

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -115	57 -130	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	57.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -118	56.5 -124	-155	+128
BetAnything	-3 -110	57 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -108	57.5 -110	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	57.5 -110	-145	+125
betPARX	-2.5 -118	56.5 -124	-155	+128
BetRivers	-2.5 -120	56.5 -125	-157	+125
BetUS	-2.5 -120	57.5 -110	-145	+125
Courtside	-3 -108	57.5 -110	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -110	57.5 -112	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in	57.5 54¢ -127 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	57.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	57.5 -110	-142	+118
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	56.5 -125	-155	+130
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	57.5 -108	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	57.5 -110	-152	+124
Pinnacle	-3 -109	58.5 -107	-155	+132
Polymarket	—	—	-150	+127
ReBet	-2.5 -128	57.5 -116	-159	+119
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	57.5 -110	-140	+120

Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +3.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): TOM +3 at -105 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -110 (-1.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (-2.3%) · Fanatics +3 at -115 (-2.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +125 at Fanatics

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): DraftKings +130 (-0.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, TOM or Kalshi +125 (-1.8%) · FanDuel +118 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -130 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 57.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -112 (0.6%) · TOM 57 at -130 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $252 available; Marshall Thundering Herd -2.5, only $146 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game
FPI	-0.5	-101
Sagarin	-3.0	-137
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (17 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	61.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0	-105	-104	-0.3%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+125	+135	-1.8%
Total	Over 57.0	-130	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.4.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at Kentucky

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Kentucky +9.5

should be Kentucky +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

LSU by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kentucky's last game

FPI

LSU by 9.5

Sagarin

LSU by 4

Massey

LSU by 5.5

Nasty Number

LSU by 8.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.24.8 pts under the market

Massey

54on the market

Nasty Number

51.62.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	54 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	54.5	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+10 -108	55 +100	+301	-398

All 22 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	54 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	54.5	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -110	54 -112	+290	-385
BetAnything	+10 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+9.5 -108	54.5 -105	+290	-375
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -108	54 -110	+289	-360
betPARX	+9.5 -110	54 -112	+290	-385
BetRivers	+9.5 -112	54 -113	+290	-385
BetUS	+9.5 -110	54 -110	+290	-360
Bovada	+10 -110	54.5 -110	+300	-400
Courtside	+10 -113	54.5 -108	+308	-369
DraftKings	+10 -115	53.5 -115	+300	-380
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	54.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -112	54.5 -112	+270	-345
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	54.5 -105	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -104	54 -108	+289	-360
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+300	-400
Pinnacle	+10 -108	55 +100	+301	-398
Polymarket	—	53.5	+285	-335
ReBet	—	54.5 -114	+285	-429
theScore Bet	+9.5 -105	54.5 -115	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +9.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kentucky): Fanatics +9.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +10 at -115 (-0.6%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +9.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · TOM +9.5 at -115 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · +300 at DraftKings

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Kentucky to win): DraftKings +300 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +290 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 25¢ (-1.4%) · TOM +275 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +270 (25¢ on the app) (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -108 (0.0%) · Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (-0.8%) · TOM 54 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $38 available; Kentucky Wildcats +7.5, only $106 available; LSU Tigers -7.5, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +351 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kentucky's last game
FPI	+9.5	+311
Sagarin	+4.0	+171
Massey	+5.5	+190
Market (18 books)	+9.5	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +9.5	-105	-104	-0.3%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+300	+301	-0.1%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 4.5.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.6 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +351 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEP

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

UTEP +9.5

should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Nevada by 9.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UTEP's last game

FPI

Nevada by 12

Sagarin

Nevada by 4

Massey

Nevada by 6.5

Nasty Number

Nevada by 8.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.80.3 pts over the market

Massey

53.23.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.52 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9.5 -113	49.5 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	—	50.5 +101 48¢	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -109	50 +101	+281	-366

All 22 books

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9.5 -113	49.5 -110	+275	-350
Kalshi	—	50.5 +101 48¢	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -109	49.5 -109	+285	-375
BetAnything	+8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+9.5 -110	49.5 -105	+280	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -113	49.5 -110	+280	-350
betPARX	+9.5 -109	49.5 -109	+285	-375
BetRivers	+9.5 -110	49.5 -110	+285	-385
BetUS	+9 -110	49.5 -110	+280	-350
Bovada	+9.5 -110	49.5 -105	+280	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -110	49.5 -103	+287	-345
DraftKings	+9.5 -110	49.5 -105	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -110	49 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	49.5 -110	+275	-350
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	49.5 -110	+275	-375
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -109	49.5 -108	+280	-350
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	49 -110	+285	-370
Pinnacle	+9.5 -109	50 +101	+281	-366
Polymarket	+8.5 -108	49.5 -108	+285	-355
ReBet	+9.5 -114	48.5 -119	+270	-400
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	49.5 -110	+280	-360

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTEP +9.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UTEP): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · TOM +9.5 at -113 (-2.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

UTEP to win · +275 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (UTEP to win): Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +280 (-1.4%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +275 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 49 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (0.7%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 48¢ (-0.5%) · FanDuel or TOM 49.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners +9.5, only $425 available; Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5, only $177 available; Under 50.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UTEP's last game
FPI	+12.0	+402
Sagarin	+4.0	+173
Massey	+6.5	+210
Market (18 books)	+9.5	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTEP Miners +9.5	-113	-104	-2.2%
Moneyline	UTEP Miners ML	+275	+301	-1.7%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern Illinois

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Air Force -10

should be Air Force -9.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

▼Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 10, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 9.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Air Force by 10

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Air Force's last game

FPI

Air Force by 9.5

Sagarin

Air Force by 5.5

Massey

Air Force by 8.5

Nasty Number

Air Force by 9.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.94.4 pts over the market

Massey

48.20.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.12.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+10 -110	47.5 -107	+313	-418

All 21 books

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+11.5 -122	47.5 -109	+290	-385
BetAnything	+10 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+9.5 -108	47.5 -110	+310	-400
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -110	47.5 -110	+320	-405
betPARX	+11.5 -122	47.5 -109	+290	-385
BetRivers	+11.5 -124	47.5 -110	+290	-385
BetUS	+9.5 -110	47.5 -110	+325	-405
Bovada	+10 -110	47.5 -110	+315	-420
Courtside	+10 -110	47.5 -113	+319	-383
DraftKings	+10 -112	47.5 -115	+310	-395
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 57¢ -144 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	47.5 -110	+310	-400
FanDuel	+9.5 +100	47.5 -110	+315	-410
Hard Rock Bet	+11.5 -120	47.5 -110	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -106	47.5 -108	+320	-405
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	47.5 -110	+320	-420
Pinnacle	+10 -110	47.5 -107	+313	-418
Polymarket	+7.5 -113	47.5 +104	—	-317
ReBet	+10.5 -125	47.5 -114	+295	-450
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	47.5 -110	+290	-380

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +10.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northern Illinois): FanDuel +9.5 at +100 (0.1%) · DraftKings +10 at -112 (-0.8%) · Fanatics +9.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-8.7%).

Not Nasty

Northern Illinois to win · +310 at DraftKings

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northern Illinois to win): FanDuel +315 (0.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +310 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Air Force, now Not Nasty. The line went from +7.0 to +10.0.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Northern Illinois).

Kalshi thin: Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5, only $390 available; Air Force Falcons -7.5, only $196 available; Over 46.5, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 9.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Air Force's last game
FPI	+9.5	+317
Sagarin	+5.5	+190
Massey	+8.5	+296
Market (18 books)	+10.0	+369

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	50.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Illinois Huskies +10.0	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Northern Illinois Huskies ML	+310	+311	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at Virginia

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Virginia -9

should be Virginia -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 9TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 9

Sagarin

Virginia by 10

Massey

Virginia by 10

Nasty Number

Virginia by 9.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

446 pts under the market

Massey

51.81.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.92.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-9 -110	50 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	49.5	-360 77¢	—
Pinnacle	-9.5 -106	49.5 -109	-366	+281

All 22 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-9 -110	50 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	49.5	-360 77¢	—
Bally Bet	-8.5 -109	50.5 -110	-375	+285
BetAnything	-9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-9.5 -110	50.5 -108	-350	+275
BetOnline.ag	-9 -110	50 -110	-350	+280
betPARX	-8.5 -109	50.5 -110	-375	+285
BetRivers	-8.5 -110	50.5 -112	-375	+280
BetUS	-9 -110	50.5 -110	-350	+280
Bovada	-9 -110	49.5 -110	-360	+280
Courtside	-9.5 -110	50.5 -108	-335	+282
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	50.5 -110	-345	+275
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 58¢ -150 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	49.5 -110	-350	+275
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	50.5 -110	-350	+275
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	50.5 -110	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-9 -106	50 -108	-350	+280
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	50.5 -110	-380	+285
Pinnacle	-9.5 -106	49.5 -109	-366	+281
Polymarket	—	—	—	+285
ReBet	-9.5 -116	50.5 -114	-400	+270
theScore Bet	-9.5 -120	50.5 -110	-360	+280

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): TOM -9 at -110 (-2.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -9.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 51¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Virginia to win · -350 at FanDuel

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Virginia to win): DraftKings -345 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -350 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 77¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 79¢ on the app (-426 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (0.6%) · TOM 50 at -110 (-0.7%) · Fanatics 49.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 51¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-4.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Virginia).

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $18 available; Syracuse Orange ML, only $96 available; Virginia Cavaliers -8.5, only $192 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game
FPI	-9.0	-309
Sagarin	-10.0	-338
Massey	-10.0	-327
Market (18 books)	-9.0	-335

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -9.0	-110	-102	-2.0%
Moneyline	Virginia Cavaliers ML	-350	-312	-2.0%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at Purdue

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pm

Minnesota -2

should be Minnesota -2 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Minnesota by 2TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game

FPI

Minnesota by 1

Sagarin

Minnesota by 1.5

Massey

Minnesota by 4.5

Nasty Number

Minnesota by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

59.18.1 pts over the market

Massey

54.13.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.65.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2 -105	51 -105	+111	-131
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5 -121 53¢	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	50.5 -118	+109	-128

All 22 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2 -105	51 -105	+111	-131
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5 -121 53¢	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	51 -110	+115	-139
BetAnything	+2.5 -105	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -108	50.5 -112	+115	-135
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -115	51 -105	+113	-133
betPARX	+2.5 -109	51 -110	+115	-139
BetRivers	+2.5 -110	51 -112	+114	-141
BetUS	+2.5 -115	51 -105	+115	-135
Bovada	+2.5 -110	51 -110	+110	-130
Courtside	+2.5 -110	50.5 -116	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	50.5 -118	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	51 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -106	50.5 -115	+114	-137
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	51.5 -105	+115	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -111	51 -103	+113	-133
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	51 -110	+112	-137
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	50.5 -118	+109	-128
Polymarket	+2.5	51.5 +100	—	-127
ReBet	+2.5 -114	50.5 -119	+107	-142
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	50.5 -115	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota -2.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Minnesota): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -2.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · TOM -2 at -115 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-3.8%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 52¢ (-4.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · -131 at Fanatics

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): Fanatics or TOM -130 (-2.3%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -135 (-3.2%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -136 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-6.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51 at -105 (1.2%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -115 (0.1%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -118 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $40 available; Under 50.5, only $22 available; Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	+4.5	+179
Market (18 books)	+2.0	+116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0	-115	-102	-3.0%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-131	-118	-2.5%
Total	Over 51.0	-105	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.4.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at Utah

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pm

Utah -15.5

should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 15.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas's last game

FPI

Utah by 15

Sagarin

Utah by 12

Massey

Utah by 17.5

Nasty Number

Utah by 150.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

51.8on the market

Massey

54.52.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.11.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-15.5 -107	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -116 52¢	52.5	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-15 -112	52 -110	-740	+487

All 21 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-15.5 -107	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -116 52¢	52.5	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-15 -113	51.5 -109	-715	+500
BetAnything	-15.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-15 -108	51.5 -115	-700	+525
BetOnline.ag	-15.5 -107	52 -110	-700	+505
betPARX	-15 -113	51.5 -109	-715	+500
BetRivers	-15.5 -109	51.5 -110	-770	+500
BetUS	-15.5 -105	52 -110	-700	+500
Bovada	-15.5 -110	52 -110	-750	+500
Courtside	-15.5 -108	52.5 -103	-669	+519
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	52.5 -105	-700	+500
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 56¢ -138 all-in	89¢ -1011 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-15.5 -110	52 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-15.5 -106	51.5 -110	-750	+520
Hard Rock Bet	-15.5 -110	51.5 -110	-700	+500
MyBookie.ag	-15.5 -110	52 -110	-800	+520
Pinnacle	-15 -112	52 -110	-740	+487
Polymarket	—	—	-669	+525
ReBet	-16.5 -114	51.5 -119	-847	+470
theScore Bet	-14.5 -115	51.5 -110	-900	+550

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas +15.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kansas): Kalshi +14.5 at 49¢ (-1.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +15.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · BetMGM +15 at -110 (-2.6%) · TOM +15.5 at -113 (-2.6%) · FanDuel +15.5 at -114 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +500 at Fanatics

We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kansas to win): Kalshi or BetMGM +530 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +520 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +500 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 52 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $49 available; Over 51.5, only $5 available; Under 51.5, only $80 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 1540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas's last game
FPI	-15.0	-545
Sagarin	-12.0	-411
Massey	-17.5	-680
Market (17 books)	-15.5	-649

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +15.5	-113	-102	-2.6%
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+500	+548	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm

Arizona State -20.5

should be Arizona State -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 20.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Arizona State by 14

Sagarin

Arizona State by 23

Massey

Arizona State by 19.5

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 200.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

51on the market

Nasty Number

49.51.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5	—	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
Pinnacle	-20.5 -113	51 -106	-1652	+851

All 22 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5	—	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
Bally Bet	-21 -110	51.5 -114	-2000	+900
BetAnything	-20 -110	51 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-20.5 -110	51.5 -102	-1400	+950
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	-21 -110	51.5 -114	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-21 -113	51.5 -115	-2000	+900
BetUS	-20.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	-20.5 -115	51 -105	-1800	+850
Courtside	-20.5 -113	51.5 +100	-1467	+953
DraftKings	-20.5 -115	51.5 -102	-1600	+900
DraftKings Predictions	-20.5 55¢ -132 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	96¢ -4900 all-in	11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics	-20.5 -115	51 -110	-1500	+900
FanDuel	-20.5 -112	51.5 -110	-1700	+890
Hard Rock Bet	-21.5 +100	51.5 -115	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-20.5 -106	51 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-20.5 -110	51 -110	-1493	+790
Pinnacle	-20.5 -113	51 -106	-1652	+851
Polymarket	—	—	-1567	—
ReBet	-20.5 -125	51.5 -105	-1695	+700
theScore Bet	-19.5 -115	51.5 -110	-1800	+900

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i +20.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Hawai'i): Kalshi +20.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +20.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +20.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · TOM +20.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Hawai'i to win · +1242 (7¢) at Kalshi

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): Kalshi 7¢ (2.5%) · BetMGM +950 (0.4%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or FanDuel +900 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-3.1%).

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM or DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -19.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Arizona State).

Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5, only $37 available; Over 50.5, only $156 available; Under 50.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 2040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game
FPI	-14.0	-471
Sagarin	-23.0	-1322
Massey	-19.5	-869
Market (18 books)	-20.5	-1395

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5	-103	-102	-0.2%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	+1242	+908	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm

Boise State -6

should be Boise State -6 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Boise State by 6TOM, -104

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game

FPI

Boise State by 8

Sagarin

Boise State by 4

Massey

Boise State by 5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 60.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

51.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

48.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.21.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6 -104	48.5 -110	+185	-235
Kalshi	+6.5	48.5 -112 51¢	+198 32¢	-250 70¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 -113	48.5 -108	+196	-239

All 22 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6 -104	48.5 -110	+185	-235
Kalshi	+6.5	48.5 -112 51¢	+198 32¢	-250 70¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -109	48.5 -110	+200	-250
BetAnything	+6 -105	48 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+6.5 -110	48.5 -108	+200	-235
BetOnline.ag	+6 -104	48.5 -110	+195	-235
betPARX	+6.5 -109	48.5 -110	+200	-250
BetRivers	+6.5 -110	48.5 -112	+200	-250
BetUS	+6 -105	48.5 -110	+200	-235
Bovada	+6 -105	48.5 -110	+195	-235
Courtside	+6 -106	48.5 -108	+199	-232
DraftKings	+6 -108	48.5 -110	+195	-238
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics	+6.5 -115	48.5 -110	+200	-245
FanDuel	+6.5 -105	48.5 -110	+202	-250
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+200	-250
LowVig.ag	+6 +100	48.5 -108	+195	-235
MyBookie.ag	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+206	-260
Pinnacle	+6.5 -113	48.5 -108	+196	-239
Polymarket	+6.5 -104	—	+203	-223
ReBet	+6.5 -111	48.5 -111	+196	-275
theScore Bet	+6.5 +100	48.5 -110	+210	-250

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boise State -6.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Boise State): Fanatics -6.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · DraftKings -6 at -112 (-2.7%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · TOM -6 at -116 (-3.6%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Boise State to win · -235 at BetMGM

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Boise State to win): BetMGM or TOM -235 (-3.1%) · DraftKings -238 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -245 (-3.9%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -250 (-4.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 70¢ on the app (-257 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $207 available; Over 47.5, only $101 available; Under 47.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +193 here against +222 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game
FPI	+8.0	+290
Sagarin	+4.0	+174
Massey	+5.0	+183
Market (18 books)	+6.0	+193

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boise State Broncos -6.5	-105	+104	-2.3%
Moneyline	Boise State Broncos ML	-235	-204	-3.1%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus; moneyline +193 here against +222 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Oct 11

13 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Chargers, Broncos at Chargers

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at Chargers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pm

Chargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2

Sniff of Nasty · ChargersBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Chargers. Market says Broncos by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Broncos by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game

FPI

Chargers by 0.54 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game

Massey

Broncos by 12.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 30.7 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Chargers. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

39.52.5 pts under the market

FPI

38.93.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.22.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	42 -105	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	42 -105	+153	-175

All 21 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	42 -105	+145	-175
Bally Bet	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+160	-195
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3.5 -110	42.5 -108	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	42 -105	+153	-175
betPARX	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+160	-195
BetRivers	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+160	-195
BetUS	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+150	-175
Caesars	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+152	-182
Courtside	+3.5 -110	42.5 -108	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+154	-185
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	42.5 -112	+154	-184
Fliff	+3.5 -115	42.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -110	42 -102	+153	-175
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	—	—
ReBet	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+156	-193
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	42.5 -115	+155	-185

Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.1%).

A Little Nasty

Chargers to win · +154 at DraftKings

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Chargers to win): DraftKings or FanDuel +154 (2.5%) · Caesars +152 (2.2%) · BetMGM +150 (1.9%) · TOM +145 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 41¢ on the app (+133 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 42.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 39. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -108 (0.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · TOM 42 at -115 (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5, only $104 available; Denver Broncos -3.5, only $162 available; Over 42.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dallen Bentley (TE, Broncos), Dondrea Tillman (LB, Broncos).

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +152 here against +171 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
FPI	-0.5	-101
Sagarin	hasn't seen Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Massey	+1.0	+104
Market (19 books)	+3.5	+152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	39.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Chargers +3.5	-110	-127	+3.6%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Chargers ML	+154	+139	+2.5%
Total	Under 42.0	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +152 here against +171 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at Titans

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Titans +6.5

should be Titans +6 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was +6.5

Sniff of Nasty · TitansBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Titans. Market says Texans by 7, the Nasty Number says Texans by 6. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Texans by 7TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game

FPI

Texans by 43.2 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game

Massey

Texans by 34.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texans by 61 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.61.1 pts over the market

FPI

40.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

40.71.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+240	-315
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +105	39.5 -107	+257	-309

All 25 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+240	-315
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -105	39.5 -108	+255	-335
BetAnything	+7 -120	39.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7 -110	39.5 -108	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+256	-315
betPARX	+6.5 -105	39.5 -108	+255	-335
BetRivers	+6.5 -105	39.5 -108	+255	-335
BetUS	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+260	-320
Caesars	+7 -115	39.5 -112	+250	-320
Courtside	+7 -113	39.5 -108	+277	-331
DraftKings	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+270	-340
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in	39.5 53¢ -122 all-in	29¢ +223 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-320
FanDuel	+6.5 -102	39.5 -105	+265	-330
Fliff	+6.5 -105	39.5 -110	+250	-350
Hard Rock Bet	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-300
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-300
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-300
LowVig.ag	+7 -110	39.5 -107	+256	-315
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+246	-340
Pinnacle	+6.5 +105	39.5 -107	+257	-309
Polymarket	+6.5 +113	—	+270	-285
ReBet	+6.5 -105	39.5 -110	+260	-319
theScore Bet	+7 -115	39.5 -105	+270	-340

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +6.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Titans): Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (3.5%) · BetMGM +7 at -110 (2.7%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -102 (1.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +7 at -115 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%).

A Little Nasty

Titans to win · +270 at DraftKings

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. Where, best first (Titans to win): DraftKings +270 (2.7%) · FanDuel +265 (2.3%) · BetMGM +260 (1.9%) · Kalshi, Caesars or Fanatics +252 (1.3%) · TOM +240 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · BetMGM 39.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Kalshi or Caesars 39.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +6.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 40% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $17 available; Over 38.5, only $19 available; Under 38.5, only $99 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Michael Carter (RB, Titans), Kylen Granson (TE, Titans), Marlin Klein (TE, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +251 here against +292 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game
FPI	+4.0	+179
Sagarin	hasn't seen Houston Texans and Tennessee Titans's last game
Massey	+3.0	+141
Market (21 books)	+7.0	+251

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	40.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans +6.5	+105	-109	+3.5%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+270	+237	+2.7%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +292 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at Commanders

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Giants +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Giants +2.5 · getting 1 pt at Caesars · was +2.5

Sniff of Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Commanders by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 2.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Commanders by 3.5TOM, -101

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game

FPI

Commanders by 1.52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game

Massey

Giants by 1.54.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Commanders by 2.50.8 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Giants. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Giants's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

45.91.9 pts over the market

FPI

37.86.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.82.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-3.5 -101	44 -110	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -121 53¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +104	44 -102	-177	+155

All 25 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-3.5 -101	44 -110	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -121 53¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -106	44 -109	-190	+155
BetAnything	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	44 -105	-185	+155
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -101	44 -110	-180	+157
betPARX	-3.5 -106	44 -109	-190	+155
BetRivers	-3.5 -106	44 -109	-190	+155
BetUS	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -105	43.5 -113	-176	+147
Courtside	-3 -113	43.5 -113	-166	+145
DraftKings	-3 -115	43.5 -115	-170	+142
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 59¢ -157 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -106	43.5 -115	-184	+154
Fliff	-3.5 -105	43.5 -120	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-180	+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-180	+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 +104	44 -107	-180	+157
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -105	44 -110	-186	+144
Pinnacle	-3.5 +104	44 -102	-177	+155
Polymarket	-3.5	43.5 -113	-170	—
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -120	-178	+150
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-185	+155

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +3.5 · -114 at Caesars

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Giants): Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (3.2%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 52¢ (2.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (2.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -119 (2.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Giants to win · +150 at Fanatics

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Giants to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +155 (3.2%) · Kalshi 38¢ (2.7%) · Fanatics or TOM +150 (2.4%) · Caesars +147 (1.9%) · DraftKings +142 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 38. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): TOM 44 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 43.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 44 at -112 (-1.1%) · Caesars or Kalshi 43.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders -3.5, only $283 available; Under 43.5, only $336 available; New York Giants ML, only $380 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Marcus Mariota (Commanders), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Terry McLaurin (WR, Commanders), Jaylin Lane (WR, Commanders), Thomas Fidone II (TE, Giants) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onCommanders by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game
FPI	-1.5	-180
Sagarin	hasn't seen New York Giants and Washington Commanders's last game
Massey	+1.5	-106
Market (21 books)	-3.5	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	41.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +3.5	-114	-130	+3.2%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+150	+136	+2.4%
Total	Under 44.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at Packers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Packers +3

should be Packers +2 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2, but the market has moved 5.1 points away from Packers since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Bears by 3TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game

FPI

Packers by 14.1 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game

Massey

Packers by 1.54.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bears by 21.1 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Packers. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 5.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 5.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Packers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

441 pts under the market

FPI

46.61.6 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

44.60.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+3 -115	45 -110	+130	-155
Kalshi	—	—	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	44.5 -105	+135	-155

All 24 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+3 -115	45 -110	+130	-155
Kalshi	—	—	+124 43¢	-155 59¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -110	44 -113	+112	-136
BetAnything	+3 -115	44 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+3 -125	44 -120	+125	-145
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	44.5 -105	+135	-155
betPARX	+2.5 -110	44 -113	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2.5 -110	44 -113	+112	-136
BetUS	+3 -115	44 -110	+134	-155
Caesars	+3 -115	44.5 -107	+128	-152
Courtside	+3 -113	44.5 -103	+139	-159
DraftKings	+3 -115	44.5 -105	+136	-162
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -120	44 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	44.5 -106	+116	-136
Fliff	+2.5 -110	44.5 -105	+115	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	44 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -105	44 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -105	44 -110	+120	-140
LowVig.ag	+3 -110	44.5 -102	+135	-155
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	44 -110	+122	-156
Polymarket	+2.5 +100	44.5 -108	+138	—
ReBet	+2.5 +100	44.5 -109	+127	-149
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	44.5 -105	+125	-145

Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Packers): DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +3 at -115 (3.0%) · Fanatics +3 at -120 (1.9%) · BetMGM +3 at -125 (0.9%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

Packers to win · +136 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 42. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Packers loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Packers to win): DraftKings +136 (3.9%) · TOM +130 (2.8%) · Caesars +128 (2.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi +125 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (0.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 47. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 45 at -110 (-0.2%) · Caesars 44.5 at -113 (-2.5%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -114 (-2.7%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 44 at -110 (-3.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 5.1 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -2.5, only $41 available; Chicago Bears ML, only $353 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Ozzy Trapilo (OT, Bears), Kevin Zeitler (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 44.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game
FPI	-1.0	+110
Sagarin	hasn't seen Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers's last game
Massey	-1.5	+104
Market (20 books)	+3.0	+136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	+136	+116	+3.9%
Spread	Green Bay Packers +3.0	-115	-130	+3.0%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.1 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.8 consensus; total 45.0 here against 44.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at Steelers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Colts +2.5

should be Colts +1.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Steelers by 2.5TOM, -113

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

FPI

Steelers by 0.52.1 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

Massey

Steelers by 11.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Steelers by 1.50.8 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Colts. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Colts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

The Four

Massey

47.12.6 pts over the market

FPI

42.81.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

450.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -113	44.5 -110	-139	+119
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	44.5	-143 57¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2 -115	44.5 -103	-137	+121

All 25 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -113	44.5 -110	-139	+119
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	44.5	-143 57¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -108	44 -107	-137	+114
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	44 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	44 -120	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -113	44.5 -105	-140	+120
betPARX	-2.5 -108	44 -107	-137	+114
BetRivers	-2.5 -108	44 -107	-137	+114
BetUS	-2 -120	44.5 -105	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -109	44.5 -106	-139	+117
Courtside	-2.5 -110	44.5 -106	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	44.5 -108	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 49¢ -104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	44.5 -105	-140	+115
FanDuel	-1.5 -118	43.5 -120	-134	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -110	43.5 -120	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -108	44.5 -102	-140	+120
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-142	+112
Pinnacle	-2 -115	44.5 -103	-137	+121
Polymarket	-2.5 -104	44.5	-133	—
ReBet	-2.5 -120	44.5 -109	-137	+116
theScore Bet	-2.5 -110	45.5 -105	-140	+120

Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colts): TOM or Kalshi +2.5 at -107 (0.4%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (0.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -104 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +119 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Colts to win): TOM +119 (1.1%) · Caesars +117 (0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +115 (0.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +114 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 44.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · Caesars 44.5 at -106 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -120 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · TOM 44.5 at -110 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $2 available; Over 44.5, only $28 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $241 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Drew Allar (Steelers), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out; Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: DJ Giddens (RB, Colts), Darius Slayton (WR, Colts), Dalton Tucker (G, Colts) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
FPI	-0.5	-100
Sagarin	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Massey	-1.0	-102
Market (21 books)	-2.5	-133

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+119	+114	+1.1%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +2.5	-107	-109	+0.4%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at Seahawks

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm

49ers +3

should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more 49ers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 3TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game

FPI

49ers by 13.8 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game

Massey

Seahawks by 3on the market

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 2.50.6 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but 49ers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

Massey

47.70.7 pts over the market

FPI

49.62.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.71.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -105	47 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +100	47 -105	-156	+138

All 24 books

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -105	47 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -109	47 -112	-155	+128
BetAnything	-3 +100	47 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3 -105	47 -110	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	47 -110	-155	+135
betPARX	-3 -109	47 -112	-155	+128
BetRivers	-3 -109	47 -112	-155	+128
BetUS	-3 -105	47 -110	-155	+134
Caesars	-3 -105	47 -110	-154	+132
Courtside	-2.5 -120	47.5 -103	-145	+127
DraftKings	-2.5 -120	47.5 -105	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
FanDuel	-3 -110	47.5 -102	-164	+138
Fliff	-2.5 -130	46.5 -120	-165	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -110	47 -110	-160	+135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -110	47 -110	-160	+135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -110	47 -110	-160	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 +100	47 -107	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	47 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-3 +100	47 -105	-156	+138
Polymarket	-2.5 -122	46.5	-144	—
ReBet	-3.5 +100	46.5 -110	-160	+130
theScore Bet	-3 -110	46.5 -120	-155	+135

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel +3 at -110 (2.6%) · BetMGM +3 at -112 (2.1%) · Caesars or TOM +3 at -115 (1.5%) · DraftKings +2.5 at +100 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +138 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel +138 (2.7%) · Caesars +132 (1.6%) · BetMGM or TOM +130 (1.2%) · Kalshi 42¢ (1.0%) · DraftKings +124 (0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 47 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 60°F.

Kalshi thin: San Francisco 49ers +2.5, only $492 available; San Francisco 49ers +2.5, only $31 available; Over 46.5, only $116 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jalen Milroe (Seahawks), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jordan James (RB, 49ers), Avery Smith (CB, Seahawks), Ephesians Prysock (CB, 49ers) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
FPI	+1.0	+103
Sagarin	hasn't seen San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (20 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+138	+124	+2.7%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.0	-110	-122	+2.6%
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at Falcons

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pm

Falcons +3.5

should be Falcons +3 · getting 0.5 pts · was +6.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Ravens by 3.5

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

FPI

Ravens by 12.1 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game

Massey

Ravens by 3.5on the market

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.3 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Falcons. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

Massey

47.21.7 pts over the market

FPI

42.13.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	45.5 -112 51¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -110	45 -105	+157	-180

All 21 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	45.5 -112 51¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -115	45.5 -109	+155	-190
BetMGM	+3.5 -118	45.5 -108	+155	-190
BetOnline.ag	+3 -110	45 -105	+157	-180
betPARX	+3.5 -115	45.5 -109	+155	-190
BetRivers	+3.5 -115	45.5 -109	+155	-190
BetUS	+3 -110	45 -110	+155	-180
Caesars	+3 -108	45 -110	+150	-185
Courtside	+3.5 -115	46.5 -108	+174	-200
DraftKings	+3.5 -115	46.5 -110	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	45.5 -108	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -120	45.5 -110	+150	-195
Hard Rock Bet	+3 +100	45.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3 +100	45.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3 +100	45.5 -110	+160	-190
LowVig.ag	+3 -105	45 -102	+157	-180
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Polymarket	—	—	—	-156
ReBet	+3.5 -125	45.5 -110	+162	-202
theScore Bet	+3 -110	45.5 -105	+145	-170

Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Falcons): DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (0.3%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (-0.1%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (-1.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +170 at DraftKings

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Falcons loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +170 (3.3%) · BetMGM +155 (1.1%) · Caesars or FanDuel +150 (0.3%) · Kalshi 40¢ (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-4.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 45.5 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (1.4%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · Caesars 45 at -110 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-7.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Falcons +3.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 3.1 toward Falcons, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Baltimore Ravens -3.5, only $23 available; Under 45.5, only $17 available; Atlanta Falcons +3.5, only $251 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Chris Moore (WR, Ravens), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Da'Shawn Hand (DT, Falcons).

Atlanta Falcons has had 17 days off against 7, worth about 0.5 points.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI	+1.0	+113
Sagarin	hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey	+3.5	+183
Market (18 books)	+3.5	+174

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+170	+148	+3.3%
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +3.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 4.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at Jaguars

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Jaguars -5.5

should be Jaguars -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 5, but the market has moved 2 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 5.5TOM, -112

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game

FPI

Jaguars by 6.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game

Massey

Jaguars by 3.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Jaguars by 4.5 to Jaguars by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

Massey

42.50.5 pts under the market

FPI

43.50.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-5.5 -112	43 -107	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -116 52¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-4 -128	43 -106	-235	+201

All 25 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-5.5 -112	43 -107	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -116 52¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-5.5 -109	43 -108	-235	+190
BetAnything	-5.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-5.5 -110	42.5 -112	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -112	43 -110	-240	+200
betPARX	-5.5 -109	43 -108	-235	+190
BetRivers	-5.5 -109	43 -108	-235	+190
BetUS	-5.5 -115	43 -110	-240	+203
Caesars	-5.5 -109	43 -109	-240	+197
Courtside	-5.5 -112	42.5 -116	-239	+205
DraftKings	-5.5 -112	42.5 -118	-245	+200
DraftKings Predictions	-5.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	43 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-5.5 -115	42.5 -115	-250	+205
Fliff	-5.5 -110	43.5 -105	-240	+180
Hard Rock Bet	-5 -110	43 -115	-240	+200
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5 -110	43 -115	-240	+200
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5 -110	43 -115	-240	+200
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -107	43 -107	-240	+200
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	43 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-4 -128	43 -106	-235	+201
Polymarket	-5.5 -108	—	—	+212
ReBet	-5.5 -120	42.5 -120	-248	+206
theScore Bet	-6 -105	42.5 -105	-250	+210

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +5.5 · -108 (50¢) at Kalshi

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel +5.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +5.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · Caesars or Fanatics +5.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +205 at FanDuel

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +205 (0.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +200 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or Caesars +198 (-0.5%) · TOM +190 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 35¢ on the app (+171 all-in) (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 42.5 at -102 (-1.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics 43 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 42.5 at -105 (-2.6%) · TOM 43 at -113 (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Jaguars). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $17 available; Philadelphia Eagles +5.5, only $375 available; Over 42.5, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: CJ Williams (WR, Jaguars), Lane Johnson (OT, Eagles), Christian Braswell (CB, Jaguars) and 1 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
FPI	-6.5	-257
Sagarin	hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Massey	-3.5	-178
Market (21 books)	-5.5	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	43.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+205	+203	+0.3%
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +5.5	-108	-107	-0.3%
Total	Under 43.0	-113	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at Dolphins

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Bengals -7

should be Bengals -7 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Bengals by 7TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game

FPI

Bengals by 8.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game

Massey

Bengals by 2.5

Nasty Number

Bengals by 70.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

45.23.2 pts over the market

FPI

475 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

45.43.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -108	42 -110	+290	-380
Kalshi	+7.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+313 23¢	-404 79¢
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	42 -110	+303	-380

All 23 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -108	42 -110	+290	-380
Kalshi	+7.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+313 23¢	-404 79¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -112	42.5 -110	+305	-400
BetAnything	+7 -105	42.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+7.5 -115	42.5 -108	+333	-425
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	42 -110	+303	-380
betPARX	+7.5 -112	42.5 -110	+305	-400
BetRivers	+7.5 -112	42.5 -110	+305	-400
BetUS	+7 -105	42 -110	+305	-380
Caesars	+7 -105	42.5 -108	+305	-390
Courtside	+7 -103	41.5 -113	+282	-335
DraftKings	+7 -105	41.5 -115	+275	-345
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 57¢ -144 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in
Fanatics	+7.5 -115	42.5 -110	+310	-400
FanDuel	+7.5 -118	42.5 -110	+295	-370
Fliff	+7.5 -115	42.5 -110	+295	-420
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -110	42.5 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -110	42.5 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -110	42.5 -110	+300	-400
LowVig.ag	+7 -103	42 -107	+303	-380
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	42.5 -110	+285	-400
ReBet	+7.5 -110	42.5 -110	+300	-380
theScore Bet	+7 -110	42.5 -105	+290	-380

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Dolphins +7.5 · -115 at BetMGM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Dolphins): BetMGM or Fanatics +7.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars +7 at -105 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -118 (-0.9%) · TOM +7 at -108 (-1.4%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 53¢ (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Dolphins to win · +333 at BetMGM

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Dolphins to win): BetMGM +333 (3.1%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +313 (1.9%) · Caesars +305 (1.5%) · FanDuel +295 (0.9%) · TOM +290 (0.5%).

Off the band

the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 41.5 at -115 (1.0%) · TOM 42 at -110 (0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 42.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 87°F, 23% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Dolphins).

Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $27 available; Miami Dolphins +7.5, only $103 available; Cincinnati Bengals -7.5, only $177 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Brady Cook (Dolphins), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Justin Joly (TE, Dolphins), Bryan Cook (S, Bengals), Swayze Bozeman (LB, Bengals) and 1 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +303 here against +352 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game
FPI	+8.5	+350
Sagarin	hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins's last game
Massey	+2.5	+129
Market (20 books)	+7.0	+303

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +7.5	-115	-114	-0.3%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+333	+282	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 42.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.2.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus; moneyline +303 here against +352 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at Jets

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Jets -2

should be Jets -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 2, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Jets by 2TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

FPI

Jets by 2

Sagarin

hasn't seen New York Jets's last game

Massey

Jets by 1.5

Nasty Number

Jets by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM

The Four

Massey

39.60.4 pts under the market

FPI

39.50.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.60.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-2 -110	40 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -116 52¢	40.5 -103 49¢	-136 56¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-1.5 -111	40 -102	-128	+114

All 25 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-2 -110	40 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -116 52¢	40.5 -103 49¢	-136 56¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -113	40 -110	-125	+104
BetAnything	-2 -110	40 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	40 -108	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-2 -110	40 -110	-130	+110
betPARX	-1.5 -113	40 -110	-125	+104
BetRivers	-2 -108	40 -110	-125	+104
BetUS	-1 -120	40 -110	-130	+110
Caesars	-2 -109	40 -109	-140	+113
Courtside	-1.5 -112	39.5 -113	-127	+112
DraftKings	-1.5 -112	39.5 -115	-130	+110
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 54¢ -127 all-in	39.5 55¢ -132 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	39.5 -115	-130	+110
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	40.5 -102	-130	+110
Fliff	-2.5 -105	39.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	40 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	40 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	40 -110	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-2 -105	40 -107	-130	+110
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	40 -110	-138	+108
Pinnacle	-1.5 -111	40 -102	-128	+114
Polymarket	-2.5 +100	40.5	-127	—
ReBet	-1.5 -120	39.5 -120	-133	+113
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	39.5 -115	-130	+110

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +2.0 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +2 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-1.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +1.5 at -107 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +110 at DraftKings

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Browns to win): Caesars +113 (-0.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.0%) · BetMGM +105 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-4.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 40 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 39.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 40.5 at -120 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $52 available; Over 40.5, only $258 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $249 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Mason Taylor (TE, Jets), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Elgton Jenkins (C, Browns) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.7 consensus.

Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onJets by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPI	-2.0	-123
Sagarin	hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey	-1.5	-109
Market (21 books)	-2.0	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	39.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +2.0	-110	-103	-1.5%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+110	+113	-0.8%
Total	Under 40.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at Patriots

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Patriots -3.5

should be Patriots -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game

FPI

Patriots by 4.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game

Massey

Patriots by 5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

40.74.3 pts under the market

FPI

42.42.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.53.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5	45.5	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -107	45 -108	-191	+166

All 25 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5	45.5	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -110	45 -108	-190	+155
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-200	+160
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-190	+165
betPARX	-3.5 -110	45 -108	-190	+155
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	45 -108	-190	+155
BetUS	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-190	+163
Caesars	-3.5 -114	45 -109	-190	+158
Courtside	-3.5 -110	45.5 -103	-188	+163
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+160
FanDuel	-3.5 -118	45.5 -104	-205	+172
Fliff	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-200	+155
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -115	45 -110	-200	+165
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -115	45 -110	-200	+165
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -115	45 -110	-200	+165
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	45 -107	-190	+165
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-202	+155
Pinnacle	-3.5 -107	45 -108	-191	+166
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	45.5 +100	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-193	+162
theScore Bet	-3.5 -115	44.5 -120	-195	+165

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Caesars -3.5 at -114 (-2.7%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -118 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.3%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -190 at Caesars

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi 63¢ (-0.5%) · Caesars or TOM -190 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -192 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -195 (-2.0%) · BetMGM -200 (-2.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Kalshi 45.5 at -115 (0.2%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM 45 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -118 (-0.4%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots -3.5, only $89 available; Over 45.5, only $81 available; Under 45.5, only $427 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out; Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jackson Powers-Johnson (G, Raiders), Channing Canada (CB, Patriots), Jonah Laulu (DT, Raiders).

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game
FPI	-4.5	-191
Sagarin	hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New England Patriots's last game
Massey	-5.0	-201
Market (21 books)	-3.5	-182

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -3.5	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-190	-179	-1.4%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at Saints

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Vikings -1.5

should be Vikings -1.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Vikings by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game

FPI

Saints by 0.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game

Massey

Vikings by 2.5

Nasty Number

Vikings by 1.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

39.52.6 pts under the market

FPI

393.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.22.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -121 53¢	42.5	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -110	42 -110	+105	-125

All 22 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -121 53¢	42.5	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -112	42 -110	+100	-121
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	42 -110	+100	-120
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -110	42 -110	+105	-125
betPARX	+1.5 -112	42 -110	+100	-121
BetRivers	+1.5 -112	42 -110	+100	-121
BetUS	+1 -105	42 -110	+100	-120
Caesars	+1.5 -110	42 -107	+103	-121
Courtside	+1.5 -110	41.5 -119	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	42 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+100	-118
Fliff	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+100	-120
Hard Rock Bet	+1 -110	42 -110	+100	-120
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1 -110	42 -110	+100	-120
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1 -110	42 -110	+100	-120
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -104	42 -107	+105	-125
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	42 -110	-102	-125
Polymarket	—	—	+108	—
ReBet	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-120
theScore Bet	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (-4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.6%).

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +105 at DraftKings

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Saints to win): DraftKings +105 (-1.0%) · Caesars +103 (-1.4%) · Kalshi, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +101 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 39. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 42 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 42 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 42 at -113 (-1.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $13 available; New Orleans Saints +1.5, only $16 available; Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Max Brosmer (Vikings), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jakobe Thomas (S, Vikings), Anfernee Jennings (LB, Saints), Kaden Elliss (LB, Saints) and 2 more.

New Orleans Saints has had 13 days off against 6, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game
FPI	-0.5	+100
Sagarin	hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings's last game
Massey	+2.5	+148
Market (19 books)	+1.5	+111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	39.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +1.5	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+105	+109	-1.0%
Total	Under 42.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at Cardinals

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm

Lions -4

should be Lions -4 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 4, the Nasty Number says Lions by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Lions by 4TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game

FPI

Lions by 4.5

Sagarin

hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game

Massey

Lions by 1.5

Nasty Number

Lions by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

The Four

Massey

56.11.6 pts over the market

FPI

51.82.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+4 -115	54.5 -110	+170	-210
Kalshi	+4.5 -116 52¢	54.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	54.5 -110	+177	-205

All 22 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+4 -115	54.5 -110	+170	-210
Kalshi	+4.5 -116 52¢	54.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+4.5 -109	53.5 -112	+185	-230
BetMGM	+4 -110	54 -120	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	54.5 -110	+177	-205
betPARX	+4.5 -109	53.5 -112	+185	-230
BetRivers	+4.5 -109	53.5 -112	+185	-230
BetUS	+4 -110	54.5 -110	+180	-210
Caesars	+4 -113	54 -109	+179	-213
Courtside	+4.5 -115	53.5 -113	+184	-213
DraftKings	+4.5 -115	53.5 -115	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in
FanDuel	+4.5 -115	53.5 -115	+180	-215
Fliff	+4.5 -115	54.5 -110	+175	-235
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	54 -110	+185	-225
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	54 -110	+185	-225
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	54 -110	+185	-225
LowVig.ag	+4 -110	54.5 -107	+177	-205
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	54 -110	—	—
Polymarket	+4.5	54.5	—	-213
ReBet	—	54.5 -109	+174	-218
theScore Bet	+4 -105	54.5 -110	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +4.5 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cardinals): DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +4.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (-2.0%) · Caesars +4 at -113 (-2.7%) · TOM +4 at -115 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +180 at DraftKings

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Cardinals to win): DraftKings, FanDuel or Caesars +180 (-0.2%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +175 (-0.8%) · TOM +170 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 56 and FPI projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 54.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM 54 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Cardinals).

Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions -4.5, only $41 available; Under 54.5, only $17 available; Arizona Cardinals +4.5, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Reggie Virgil (WR, Cardinals), Tyler Conklin (TE, Lions), Bishop Fitzgerald (S, Lions) and 2 more.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game
FPI	+4.5	+197
Sagarin	hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Arizona Cardinals's last game
Massey	+1.5	+112
Market (18 books)	+4.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	53.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +4.5	-115	-107	-1.8%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+180	+181	-0.2%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Arizona Cardinals since 10-03 15:28; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.0 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mon Oct 12

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at Rams

NFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pm

Bills +3

should be Bills +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 3TOM, -102

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game

FPI

Rams by 2.50.4 pts our side

Sagarin

hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game

Massey

Rams by 21.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Rams by 2.50.5 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Bills. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

The Four

Massey

53.80.7 pts under the market

FPI

51.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.52 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -102	54.5 -110	-148	+123
Kalshi	—	—	—	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -128	54.5 -101	-163	+143

All 22 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -102	54.5 -110	-148	+123
Kalshi	—	—	—	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -117	54.5 -107	-150	+123
BetAnything	-3 +100	54.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	54.5 -108	-160	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -102	54.5 -110	-155	+135
betPARX	-2.5 -117	54.5 -107	-150	+123
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	54 -114	-150	+123
BetUS	-3 +100	54.5 -110	-155	+134
Caesars	-3 -103	54.5 -105	-154	+130
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	53.5 -115	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	54.5 -110	-146	+124
Fliff	-2.5 -120	53.5 -115	-155	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-3 +100	54 -110	-155	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 +100	54 -110	-155	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 +100	54 -110	-155	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 +103	54.5 -107	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	54.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-2.5 -128	54.5 -101	-163	+143
ReBet	-2.5 -133	54.5 -109	-156	+127
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	54.5 -110	-145	+125

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills +3.0 · -118 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): Caesars +3 at -117 (0.3%) · TOM +3 at -118 (0.1%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · +134 (41¢) at Kalshi

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Bills to win): Kalshi 41¢ (1.3%) · Caesars or BetMGM +130 (0.5%) · FanDuel +124 (-0.7%) · TOM +123 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +120 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 54.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 54.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-6.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams ML, only $177 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Ty Simpson (Rams), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Colby Parkinson (TE, Rams), Bill Murray (G, Rams), Jaylen Watson (CB, Rams) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game
FPI	-2.5	-131
Sagarin	hasn't seen Buffalo Bills and Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey	-2.0	-117
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	+134	+127	+1.3%
Spread	Buffalo Bills +3.0	-118	-118	+0.1%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 9-10-1, -1.7u · Nasty Dogs 1-1, +0.9u · +0.1 pts vs the close on 20 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks9-10-1-1.69 units · -9% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-1+0.92 units · +46% ROI

Vs the close+0.1 ptsbeat the close on 11 of 22 posted picks

Open0calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

5-4-1 · +0.63 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

LostCincinnati +7.0Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats7-34-1.00

WonUCF +11.5UCF Knights at Houston Cougars17-27+0.93

WonJames Madison -15.5Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes17-45+0.91

PushOhio -3.0Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes13-10+0.00

LostLouisiana -6.0Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns20-23-1.00

LostMiami (OH) -10.0Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks24-20-1.00

WonSan Diego State +4.5Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs29-31+0.94

WonSouth Alabama -12.5UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars35-52+0.91

LostSouth Florida -5.5Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls17-13-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostWashington Commanders MLIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders30-13-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

3-3 · -0.19 units

WonCleveland Browns +3.0Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

WonBaylor +3.5Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils55-19+0.91

LostIllinois -9.5Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini24-17-1.00

LostMassachusetts -5.0Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen38-14-1.00

LostPhiladelphia Eagles +3.5Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles24-20-1.00

WonSan Francisco 49ers -3.0Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers14-24+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

7-3 · +3.52 units

WonTulsa +3.0North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

LostOver 45.5Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons9-14-1.00

LostUnder 61.0Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams56-26-1.00

WonUnder 47.0Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes31-14+0.91

WonOver 46.5Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29-31+0.91

WonOver 56.5Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack28-31+0.91

LostOver 50.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies7-34-1.00

WonUNLV +1.5California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels31-39+0.86

WonFresno State +2.5Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars26-6+0.91

WonJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals22-17+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	9-10-1	47.4%	-1.7 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-1	50.0%	+0.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	7-7	50.0%	-0.5 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	28-32	46.7%	-6.8 u
Not Nasty	231 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-05 09:06.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 197 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.12	288
FPI	11.25	225
SP+	11.26	225
Massey	11.31	168
Sagarin	12.42	278

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.50	0.02	171
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.01	168
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.00	171
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.05	197

The line archive, 288 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 98, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 273 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.56, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.

The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 46 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.16	46
FPI	9.47	47
The market	9.47	63
Sagarin	9.58	63
nfelo	9.71	62

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.01	45
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.02	46
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.04	46
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	45

The line archive, 63 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 19, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.68 points better than the close on average over 58 games. The close misses the final by 9.46, the open by 9.48, our raw ratings number by 9.69, Pinnacle's close by 9.47. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.20, Polymarket 8.24, theScore Bet 8.86.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.

The head start. 131 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 57 times, against it 29, average 0.44 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 76.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
ratings 0%	311	10.63	10.53	0-0
ratings 5%	311	10.56	10.53	0-0
ratings 15%	311	10.42	10.53	0-0
ratings 45%	311	10.05	10.53	1-1
Sagarin half a vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Sagarin no vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
FPI a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Massey a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.

Closing line value

+0.08Sides: pts vs close, 28 bets, beat it 54%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 137 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 59 of 137 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 82. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Nevada at UTEP	Nevada Wolf -9.4	-9.4	-9.5	+0.1	no call
Old Dominion at App State	Appalachian State -7	-7	-9.2	+2.2	no call
Ole Miss at Vanderbilt	Vanderbilt +10.4	10.4	10	+0.4	no call
Tulane at Army	Tulane Green +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	no call
Tulsa at Navy	Tulsa Golden +2.6	2.6	2.5	+0.1	no call
UAB at Memphis	Memphis -14.2	-14.2	-14.5	+0.3	no call
UConn at Temple	Over	52.8	54.5	+1.7	no call
USC at Penn State	Over	55.2	55	-0.2	no call
Virginia Tech at California	California Golden +9.5	9.5	9	+0.5	no call
Wake Forest at NC State	Wake Forest Demon -2.9	-2.9	-4	+1.1	no call
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints	Under	42	42	+0.0	no call
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 239 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	176	13.4	55-66 (45%)	35-36 (49%)
Massey	178	12.8	39-44 (47%)	15-24 (38%)
The blend	181	12.9	40-46 (47%)	18-25 (42%)

NFL, 53 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.6 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	49	10.8	13-17 (43%)	4-6 (40%)
FPI	46	10.2	10-4 (71%)	6-1 (86%)
The blend	49	10.0	11-7 (61%)	3-2 (60%)

The detailed numbers

+0.08Avg points vs close

54%Beat the close

We said	Bets	Predicted	Actual
55-60%	20	56%	50%

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

74 priced · 25 a little nasty · audit clean

Not every source loaded: SP+ hasn't changed in 8 days, so it may be stale at the source. Anything that depends on those is missing from the board rather than guessed at.

We read 74 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 3:02pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.8Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bearstoward California Golden Bearsagainst the public
→ 3.5Florida State Seminoles at Louisville Cardinalstoward Florida State Seminolesagainst the public
→ 3.5Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zipstoward Eastern Michigan Eagleswith the public
→ 3.3Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech Bulldogstoward Louisiana Tech Bulldogsagainst the public
→ 3.2Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggiestoward Utah State Aggieswith the public
→ 2.8Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State Mountaineerstoward Appalachian State Mountaineerswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.76Points off per game at that weight

10.76The market on its own

243Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 6%, give or take 20% (one standard error, 243 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
nfelo	62	9.71
The market	351	10.82
Massey	214	10.85
FPI	272	10.94
SP+	225	11.26
Sagarin	341	11.89

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	155-145	52%
1.5 to 3.0	7-10	41%
3.0 to 5.0	10-11	48%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 901359 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	443	1.51
FanDuel	472	1.47
Kalshi	260	1.41
BetRivers	454	1.38
BetOnline.ag	433	1.36
LowVig.ag	423	1.36
Bally Bet	244	1.35
ReBet	248	1.34
betPARX	244	1.34
MyBookie.ag	348	1.27
Courtside	218	1.22
Fanatics	388	1.19
BetMGM	430	1.18
Hard Rock Bet	235	1.13
Bovada	397	1.11
BetUS	358	1.11
theScore Bet	237	1.09
Caesars	347	1.08
Pinnacle	410	1.04
TOM	417	1.04
BetAnything	220	0.96
Fliff	195	0.85
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	54	0.67
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	54	0.63
Polymarket	85	0.42

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated yesterday
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated 7 days ago
Sagarin updated yesterday
Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
nfelo updated 3 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Mon Oct 5

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.