Buck Nasty's
Nasty Picks of the Week
Updated Sun 1:21 pm. TOM's lines from 2 hours ago. 14 games priced: 1 lean. 56 more wait for the ratings to rebuild after this weekend's games.
Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Today

3 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies
3:00 pm
-24.0
-23.5
Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 24.

Washington State sideWashington side
Market
-24.0
SP+
-22.5
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-28.5
We say
-23.5
Washington State +24.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Washington State to win · +1136 at TOM
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +24.0 · -107 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketWashington by 24the number to beat
SP+Washington by 22.51.7 apart
FPIWashington by 167.9 apart
SagarinWashington by 28.54.6 apart
We settle onWashington by 23.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1110
FPI-16.0-534
Sagarin-28.5-2568
Market (9 books)-24.0-1174
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.543.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +24.0-107-111+0.9%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+1136+1286priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-110-195shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels
6:30 pm · neutral
-6.5
-6.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Ole Miss by 6.5, we say Ole Miss by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Louisville sideOle Miss side
Market
-6.5
SP+
-5.5
FPI
-6.5
Sagarin
-9.0
We say
-6.5
Ole Miss -6.5 · -114 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Ole Miss to win · -256 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there.
Pass
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Ole Miss -6.5 · -114 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketOle Miss by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Ole Miss by 5.51.1 apart
FPIOle Miss by 6.50.1 apart
SagarinOle Miss by 92.6 apart
We settle onOle Miss by 6.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-171
FPI-6.5-193
Sagarin-9.0-250
Market (8 books)-6.5-222
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.053.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOle Miss Rebels -6.5-114-101-3.0%
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML-256-192-6.2%
TotalUnder 55.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6:30 pm · neutral
-21.0
-21.0
Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.

Wisconsin sideNotre Dame side
Market
-21.0
SP+
-22.5
FPI
-21.0
Sagarin
-18.5
We say
-21.0
Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Notre Dame to win · -1700 at TOM
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketNotre Dame by 21the number to beat
SP+Notre Dame by 22.51.7 apart
FPINotre Dame by 210 apart
SagarinNotre Dame by 18.52.5 apart
We settle onNotre Dame by 2131% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1167
FPI-21.0-949
Sagarin-18.5-701
Market (9 books)-21.0-980
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.542.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNotre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0-115+105-4.7%
MoneylineNotre Dame Fighting Irish ML-1700-946priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.5-110-136shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
tomorrow 6:30 pm
+3.0
+2.5
Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

SMU sideFlorida State side
Market
+3.0
SP+
+1.0
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
+7.0
We say
+2.5
Florida State +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida State to win · +125
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there.
Pass
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Florida State to win · +125. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there.
Full detail
The marketSMU by 3the number to beat
SP+SMU by 12.1 apart
FPISMU by 11.9 apart
SagarinSMU by 74.3 apart
We settle onSMU by 2.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+108
FPI+1.0+110
Sagarin+7.0+205
Market (9 books)+3.0+135
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.051.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +3.0-110-104-1.5%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+125+126-0.1%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm · NFL
-3.5
-3.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-4.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Seahawks to win · -181 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart
SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart
We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-169
Sagarin-4.0-157
Market (9 books)-3.5-165
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -3.5+100+101-0.3%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-181-152-4.0%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral · NFL
-3.5
-3.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
49ers to win · +164 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: 49ers to win · +164 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart
SagarinRams by 40.5 apart
We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-116
Sagarin-4.0-159
Market (9 books)-3.5-173
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML+164+147+2.7%
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers +3.5-110-105-1.1%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes
thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm
-53.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-53.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 1 lean showing so far.
GameMarketOursLean
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles
fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm
-3.5
-1.5
Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side
Market
-3.5
SP+
+3.0
FPI
-6.5
Sagarin
+5.0
We say
-1.5
Rutgers +3.5 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Rutgers to win · +143
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value.
Lean
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Rutgers to win · +143. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value.
Full detail
The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart
FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart
SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart
We settle onBoston College by 1.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+135
FPI-6.5-190
Sagarin+5.0+168
Market (5 books)-3.5-154
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.560.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5-110-121+2.4%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+143+115+5.3%
TotalOver 54.5-110-162shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks
fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
+6.5
+7.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Missouri sideKansas side
Market
+6.5
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+8.5
We say
+7.0
Missouri -6.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Missouri to win · -255
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Missouri -6.5 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Missouri by 103.3 apart
FPIMissouri by 42.6 apart
SagarinMissouri by 8.51.9 apart
We settle onMissouri by 731% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+271
FPI+4.0+149
Sagarin+8.5+235
Market (6 books)+6.5+220
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers -6.5-110-108-0.4%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML-255-205-4.6%
TotalOver 50.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-35.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-35.5-2475
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-30.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-30.5-3069
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-43.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-43.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.5

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans
fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
-20.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-20.5-1112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

49 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 26 leans showing so far.
GameMarketOursLean
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-9.5
-10.5
Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9.5, we say East Carolina by 10.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side
Market
-9.5
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-11.5
We say
-10.5
East Carolina -9.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
East Carolina to win · -340
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there.
Pass
the Under 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 54. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: East Carolina -9.5 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketEast Carolina by 9.5the number to beat
SP+East Carolina by 12.52.9 apart
FPIEast Carolina by 11.51.7 apart
We settle onEast Carolina by 10.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-361
FPI-11.5-318
Sagarindoesn't rate App State
Market (5 books)-9.5-291
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.053.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadEast Carolina Pirates -9.5-110-107-0.8%
MoneylineEast Carolina Pirates ML-340-287-3.1%
TotalUnder 55.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-15.0
-16.0
Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 15, we say Texas A&M by 16. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side
Market
-15.0
SP+
-18.0
FPI
-17.5
Sagarin
-18.0
We say
-16.0
Texas A&M -15.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texas A&M to win · -682
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Texas A&M -15.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketTexas A&M by 15the number to beat
SP+Texas A&M by 183.4 apart
FPITexas A&M by 17.52.7 apart
SagarinTexas A&M by 183.4 apart
We settle onTexas A&M by 1631% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.0-676
FPI-17.5-619
Sagarin-18.0-674
Market (6 books)-15.0-521
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.052.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies -15.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML-682-515priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-11.0
-10.0
Lean Arkansas, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Arkansas: market says Utah by 11, we say Utah by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arkansas sideUtah side
Market
-11.0
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-10.0
Arkansas +11.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Arkansas to win · +340
We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 66. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Arkansas +11.0 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketUtah by 11the number to beat
SP+Utah by 6.54.8 apart
FPIUtah by 8.52.8 apart
SagarinUtah by 8.52.9 apart
We settle onUtah by 1045% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-190
FPI-8.5-232
Sagarin-8.5-229
Market (5 books)-11.0-360
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.566.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +11.0-110-117+1.5%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+340+271priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.5-110-226shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-3.5
-2.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side
Market
-3.5
SP+
-1.5
FPI
+2.5
Sagarin
-2.0
We say
-2.5
South Florida +3.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
South Florida to win · +155
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value.
Lean
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: South Florida to win · +155. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value.
Full detail
The marketArmy by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Army by 1.51.8 apart
FPISouth Florida by 2.55.8 apart
SagarinArmy by 21.1 apart
We settle onArmy by 2.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-116
FPI+2.5+128
Sagarin-2.0-124
Market (5 books)-3.5-161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.558.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls +3.5-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML+155+128+4.6%
TotalOver 50.5-110-195shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-19.0
-17.5
Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 19, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side
Market
-19.0
SP+
-15.5
FPI
-11.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-17.5
Washington State +19.0 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Washington State to win · +847
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +19.0 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketKansas State by 19the number to beat
SP+Kansas State by 15.53.1 apart
FPIKansas State by 11.57.4 apart
SagarinKansas State by 190.2 apart
We settle onKansas State by 17.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.5-508
FPI-11.5-315
Sagarin-19.0-738
Market (4 books)-19.0-888
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.049.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +19.0-110-124+3.0%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+847+615priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+6.5
+3.5
Lean Michigan, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan: market says Oklahoma by 6.5, we say Oklahoma by 3.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side
Market
+6.5
SP+
-0.5
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
+3.5
Michigan +6.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
Michigan to win · +200
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.
Lean
the Under 44.0 · -110
SP+ projects 43. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Michigan to win · +200. We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.
Full detail
The marketOklahoma by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Michigan by 0.56.7 apart
FPIOklahoma by 15.5 apart
SagarinMichigan by 1.57.9 apart
We settle onOklahoma by 3.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI+1.0+108
Sagarin-1.5-117
Market (7 books)+6.5+206
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.043.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines +6.5-110-136+5.2%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML+200+138+8.6%
TotalUnder 44.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 2.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+22.0
+21.0
Lean Oklahoma State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Oklahoma State: market says Oregon by 22, we say Oregon by 21. That can change when the new numbers land.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side
Market
+22.0
SP+
+20.0
FPI
+19.5
Sagarin
+25.0
We say
+21.0
Oklahoma State +22.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Oklahoma State to win · +1126
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 58.0 · -110
SP+ projects 55. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Oklahoma State +22.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketOregon by 22the number to beat
SP+Oregon by 202.1 apart
FPIOregon by 19.52.4 apart
SagarinOregon by 252.6 apart
We settle onOregon by 2145% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.0+847
FPI+19.5+810
Sagarin+25.0+1525
Market (6 books)+22.0+1124
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.055.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOklahoma State Cowboys +22.0-110-114+0.9%
MoneylineOklahoma State Cowboys ML+1126+973priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 58.0-110-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-17.5
-17.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side
Market
-17.5
SP+
-17.5
FPI
-14.0
Sagarin
-20.0
We say
-17.5
Virginia Tech -17.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Virginia Tech to win · -1050
We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Virginia Tech -17.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketVirginia Tech by 17.5the number to beat
SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50 apart
FPIVirginia Tech by 143.6 apart
SagarinVirginia Tech by 202.1 apart
We settle onVirginia Tech by 17.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-638
FPI-14.0-422
Sagarin-20.0-818
Market (6 books)-17.5-699
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.046.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadVirginia Tech Hokies -17.5-110+104-3.3%
MoneylineVirginia Tech Hokies ML-1050-636priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-160shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+23.0
+23.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side
Market
+23.0
SP+
+23.0
FPI
+20.0
Sagarin
+29.5
We say
+23.0
Penn State -23.0 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Penn State to win · -2500
We make it 92 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Penn State -23.0 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketPenn State by 23the number to beat
SP+Penn State by 230.1 apart
FPIPenn State by 202.9 apart
SagarinPenn State by 29.56.7 apart
We settle onPenn State by 2360% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1228
FPI+20.0+848
Sagarin+29.5+2989
Market (5 books)+23.0+1256
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.060.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPenn State Nittany Lions -23.0-110+104-3.5%
MoneylinePenn State Nittany Lions ML-2500-1221priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-110-237shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Temple Owls since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+4.0
+3.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side
Market
+4.0
SP+
+3.5
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
+3.5
Purdue +4.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Purdue to win · +150
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.
Pass
the Under 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Purdue to win · +150. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketWake Forest by 4the number to beat
SP+Wake Forest by 3.50.7 apart
FPIWake Forest by 30.9 apart
Sagarina pick'em4.2 apart
We settle onWake Forest by 3.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.5+140
FPI+3.0+138
Sagarinpk-101
Market (5 books)+4.0+160
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.044.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +4.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+150+145+0.9%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-155shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs
sat 12 sep, 11:45 am
-39.0
-38.0
Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 39, we say Georgia by 38. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side
Market
-39.0
SP+
-36.0
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-42.0
We say
-38.0
Western Kentucky +39.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Western Kentucky +39.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketGeorgia by 39the number to beat
SP+Georgia by 363.3 apart
FPIGeorgia by 327.3 apart
SagarinGeorgia by 422.7 apart
We settle onGeorgia by 3831% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-36.0-7815
FPI-32.0-4161
Sagarin-42.0-21935
Market (3 books)-39.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.556.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +39.0-110-113+0.7%
TotalOver 52.5-110-140shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+10.0
+10.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side
Market
+10.0
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+12.5
Sagarin
+10.0
We say
+10.0
Kentucky +10.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Kentucky to win · +331
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Kentucky +10.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketAlabama by 10the number to beat
SP+Alabama by 100 apart
FPIAlabama by 12.52.3 apart
SagarinAlabama by 100.3 apart
We settle onAlabama by 1031% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+280
FPI+12.5+360
Sagarin+10.0+271
Market (6 books)+10.0+356
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.540.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +10.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+331+281priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.5-110-206shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
-7.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-7.5
FPI
-8.0
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-7.5
BYU -7.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
BYU to win · -291
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there.
Pass
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: BYU -7.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat
SP+BYU by 7.50.2 apart
FPIBYU by 80.8 apart
SagarinBYU by 8.51.3 apart
We settle onBYU by 7.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.5-214
FPI-8.0-227
Sagarin-8.5-240
Market (6 books)-7.5-251
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBYU Cougars -7.5-110+102-2.9%
MoneylineBYU Cougars ML-291-215-6.2%
TotalOver 51.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-1.0
pk
Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side
Market
-1.0
SP+
+2.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.5
We say
pk
California +1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
California to win · -104
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.
Pass
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: California to win · -104. We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.
Full detail
The marketSyracuse by 1the number to beat
SP+California by 2.53.9 apart
FPISyracuse by 0.50.7 apart
SagarinCalifornia by 2.53.6 apart
We settle ona pick'em31% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+131
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin+2.5+127
Market (5 books)-1.0-107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +1.0-110-104-1.3%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML-104+101-1.1%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.0
-7.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side
Market
-7.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-4.5
Sagarin
-11.0
We say
-7.0
Illinois -7.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Illinois to win · -270
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there.
Pass
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 63. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Illinois -7.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketIllinois by 7the number to beat
SP+Illinois by 70 apart
FPIIllinois by 4.52.6 apart
SagarinIllinois by 114.2 apart
We settle onIllinois by 745% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-201
FPI-4.5-154
Sagarin-11.0-312
Market (6 books)-7.0-230
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.063.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -7.0-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-270-201-6.1%
TotalOver 54.0-110-218shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-18.0
-19.0
Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 18, we say Michigan State by 19. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side
Market
-18.0
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-22.5
We say
-19.0
Michigan State -18.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Michigan State to win · -1048
We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Michigan State -18.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketMichigan State by 18the number to beat
SP+Michigan State by 20.52.5 apart
FPIMichigan State by 19.51.4 apart
SagarinMichigan State by 22.54.5 apart
We settle onMichigan State by 1945% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-889
FPI-19.5-778
Sagarin-22.5-1138
Market (6 books)-18.0-696
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.052.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans -18.0-110-106-0.8%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML-1048-754priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+13.5
+14.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Maryland sideUConn side
Market
+13.5
SP+
+15.0
FPI
+10.0
Sagarin
+16.5
We say
+14.0
Maryland -13.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Maryland to win · -605
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Maryland -13.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Maryland by 151.4 apart
FPIMaryland by 103.5 apart
SagarinMaryland by 16.53 apart
We settle onMaryland by 1431% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+465
FPI+10.0+274
Sagarin+16.5+557
Market (6 books)+13.5+469
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.549.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins -13.5-110-101-2.3%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML-605-418priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-137shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+0.5
-2.0
Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 0.5, we say Minnesota by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side
Market
+0.5
SP+
-3.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
-3.5
We say
-2.0
Minnesota +0.5 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Minnesota to win · -101
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value.
Lean
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Minnesota to win · -101. We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value.
Full detail
The marketMississippi State by 0.5the number to beat
SP+Minnesota by 3.54.2 apart
FPIMinnesota by 0.51 apart
SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.1 apart
We settle onMinnesota by 260% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-143
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin-3.5-142
Market (6 books)+0.5+107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.550.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +0.5-110-120+2.3%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML-101-120+4.3%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-150shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-44.5
-44.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Rice sideNotre Dame side
Market
-44.5
SP+
-44.0
FPI
-41.5
Sagarin
-53.0
We say
-44.5
Rice +44.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Rice +44.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat
SP+Notre Dame by 440.5 apart
FPINotre Dame by 41.53 apart
SagarinNotre Dame by 538.3 apart
We settle onNotre Dame by 44.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-44.0-32776
FPI-41.5-20558
Sagarin-53.0-198394
Market (3 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +44.5-110-106-1.0%
TotalOver 52.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
-6.5
Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-4.0
We say
-6.5
UCF +7.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
UCF to win · +240
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value.
Lean
the Under 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: UCF to win · +240. We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value.
Full detail
The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat
SP+Pittsburgh by 6.51 apart
FPIPittsburgh by 43.7 apart
We settle onPittsburgh by 6.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-195
FPI-4.0-149
Sagarindoesn't rate UCF
Market (5 books)-7.5-262
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.049.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +7.5-110-113+0.6%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+240+194+4.6%
TotalUnder 57.0-110-198shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+1.0
+0.5
Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say UTSA by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-1.0
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
+0.5
Texas State +1.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texas State to win · -103
We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.
Pass
the Over 64.5 · -110
SP+ projects 78. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Texas State to win · -103. We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.
Full detail
The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat
SP+Texas State by 12.5 apart
FPITexas State by 34.5 apart
Sagarina pick'em1.3 apart
We settle onUTSA by 0.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-113
FPI-3.0-138
Sagarinpk-101
Market (6 books)+1.0+105
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.578.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas State Bobcats +1.0-110+100-2.4%
MoneylineTexas State Bobcats ML-103+105-1.9%
TotalOver 64.5-110-327shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-10.0
-10.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side
Market
-10.0
SP+
-13.5
FPI
-7.0
We say
-10.5
UAB -10.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
UAB to win · -425
We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 59. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: UAB -10.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketUAB by 10the number to beat
SP+UAB by 13.53.3 apart
FPIUAB by 73.3 apart
We settle onUAB by 10.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-403
FPI-7.0-201
Sagarindoesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (6 books)-10.0-342
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.058.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUAB Blazers -10.0-110+101-2.6%
MoneylineUAB Blazers ML-425-282priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskies
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-27.0
-26.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Utah State sideWashington side
Market
-27.0
SP+
-26.0
FPI
-19.0
Sagarin
-35.0
We say
-26.5
Utah State +27.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Utah State to win · +1694
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Utah State +27.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketWashington by 27the number to beat
SP+Washington by 261.1 apart
FPIWashington by 198.2 apart
SagarinWashington by 357.8 apart
We settle onWashington by 26.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.0-1770
FPI-19.0-725
Sagarin-35.0-6519
Market (4 books)-27.0-1758
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.552.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +27.0-110-110+0.0%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1694+1921priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-110-136shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green
sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm
+6.0
+5.0
Lean North Texas, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean North Texas: market says UNLV by 6, we say UNLV by 5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side
Market
+6.0
SP+
+13.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+5.0
North Texas +6.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
North Texas to win · +172
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.
Pass
the Over 58.0 · -110
SP+ projects 67. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: North Texas to win · +172. We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketUNLV by 6the number to beat
SP+UNLV by 137.2 apart
FPIUNLV by 42 apart
SagarinUNLV by 32.8 apart
We settle onUNLV by 545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+377
FPI+4.0+146
Sagarin+3.0+135
Market (6 books)+6.0+185
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.066.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +6.0-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+172+163+1.3%
TotalOver 58.0-110-213shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores
sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm
-20.0
-22.5
Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20, we say Vanderbilt by 22.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side
Market
-20.0
SP+
-25.0
FPI
-15.5
Sagarin
-28.5
We say
-22.5
Vanderbilt -20.0 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Vanderbilt to win · -1375
We make it 92 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Vanderbilt -20.0 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketVanderbilt by 20the number to beat
SP+Vanderbilt by 254.7 apart
FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.4 apart
SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.4 apart
We settle onVanderbilt by 22.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-1550
FPI-15.5-509
Sagarin-28.5-2554
Market (6 books)-20.0-836
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.064.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores -20.0-110-121+2.3%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML-1375-1110priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-242shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-8.0
-7.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side
Market
-8.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.0
We say
-7.5
Memphis +8.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Memphis to win · +265
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value.
Lean
the Over 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Memphis to win · +265. We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value.
Full detail
The marketBoise State by 8the number to beat
SP+Boise State by 71.2 apart
FPIBoise State by 62 apart
SagarinBoise State by 90.6 apart
We settle onBoise State by 7.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-201
FPI-6.0-186
Sagarin-9.0-242
Market (5 books)-8.0-292
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMemphis Tigers +8.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+265+215+4.3%
TotalOver 55.0-110-145shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-10.0
-6.0
Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10, we say Florida International by 6. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side
Market
-10.0
SP+
-0.5
FPI
-2.0
We say
-6.0
Buffalo +10.0 · -110
Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
Buffalo to win · +320
We make it 35 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Buffalo +10.0 · -110. Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
The marketFlorida International by 10the number to beat
SP+Florida International by 0.59.6 apart
FPIFlorida International by 27.9 apart
We settle onFlorida International by 645% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI-2.0-124
Sagarindoesn't rate Florida International
Market (5 books)-10.0-338
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.048.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.0-110-154+8.3%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+320+183priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-1.5
-1.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side
Market
-1.5
SP+
+2.0
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
-1.5
Jacksonville State +1.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Jacksonville State to win · +102
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there.
Pass
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Jacksonville State to win · +102. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there.
Full detail
The marketOhio by 1.5the number to beat
SP+Jacksonville State by 23.5 apart
FPIOhio by 8.56.6 apart
SagarinOhio by 1.50.3 apart
We settle onOhio by 1.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.0+120
FPI-8.5-231
Sagarin-1.5-115
Market (5 books)-1.5-111
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.544.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks +1.5-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML+102+117-3.5%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-177shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-28.5
-28.0
Lean Bowling Green, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Bowling Green: market says Nebraska by 28.5, we say Nebraska by 28. That can change when the new numbers land.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side
Market
-28.5
SP+
-26.5
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-33.5
We say
-28.0
Bowling Green +28.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Bowling Green to win · +2296
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 42. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Bowling Green +28.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat
SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart
FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart
SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart
We settle onNebraska by 2831% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.5-1919
FPI-24.5-1514
Sagarin-33.5-5315
Market (6 books)-28.5-2269
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.042.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +28.5-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+2296+2318priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-229shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-9.5
-9.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side
Market
-9.5
SP+
-18.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-9.5
Georgia State +9.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Georgia State to win · +272
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Georgia State to win · +272. We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart
FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart
SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart
We settle onKennesaw State by 9.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.5-708
FPI-9.5-257
Sagarin-8.5-231
Market (4 books)-9.5-289
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.558.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +9.5-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+272+259+1.0%
TotalOver 50.5-110-192shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+13.5
+12.0
Lean Georgia Tech, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Georgia Tech: market says Tennessee by 13.5, we say Tennessee by 12. That can change when the new numbers land.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side
Market
+13.5
SP+
+9.0
FPI
+9.5
Sagarin
+9.0
We say
+12.0
Georgia Tech +13.5 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Georgia Tech to win · +410
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 62. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Georgia Tech +13.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketTennessee by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Tennessee by 94.1 apart
FPITennessee by 9.53.9 apart
SagarinTennessee by 94.1 apart
We settle onTennessee by 1231% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.0+252
FPI+9.5+256
Sagarin+9.0+252
Market (5 books)+13.5+435
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.062.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.5-110-120+2.2%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+410+339priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-110-191shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-17.5
-16.5
Lean Middle Tennessee, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Middle Tennessee: market says Marshall by 17.5, we say Marshall by 16.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side
Market
-17.5
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-14.0
We say
-16.5
Middle Tennessee +17.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Middle Tennessee to win · +662
We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 67. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Middle Tennessee +17.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketMarshall by 17.5the number to beat
SP+Marshall by 20.53 apart
FPIMarshall by 9.58 apart
SagarinMarshall by 143.6 apart
We settle onMarshall by 16.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-889
FPI-9.5-260
Sagarin-14.0-415
Market (4 books)-17.5-693
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.566.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +17.5-110-118+1.8%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+662+547priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-216shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+14.0
+13.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side
Market
+14.0
SP+
+17.5
FPI
+7.5
We say
+13.5
Sam Houston +14.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Sam Houston to win · +480
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Sam Houston +14.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat
SP+Tulsa by 17.53.6 apart
FPITulsa by 7.56.8 apart
We settle onTulsa by 13.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.5+638
FPI+7.5+207
Sagarindoesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (5 books)+14.0+507
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.057.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +14.0-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+480+402priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-161shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-11.0
-11.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Alabama sideTulane side
Market
-11.0
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-15.0
Sagarin
-12.0
We say
-11.5
Tulane -11.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Tulane to win · -475
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 57. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Tulane -11.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketTulane by 11the number to beat
SP+Tulane by 12.51.4 apart
FPITulane by 153.9 apart
SagarinTulane by 121 apart
We settle onTulane by 11.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-357
FPI-15.0-469
Sagarin-12.0-341
Market (5 books)-11.0-384
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.057.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTulane Green Wave -11.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineTulane Green Wave ML-475-329priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-151shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins
sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm
-10.5
-9.0
Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 10.5, we say UCLA by 9. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-1.0
Sagarin
-17.0
We say
-9.0
San Diego State +10.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
San Diego State to win · +320
We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: San Diego State +10.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketUCLA by 10.5the number to beat
SP+UCLA by 73.4 apart
FPIUCLA by 19.1 apart
SagarinUCLA by 176.8 apart
We settle onUCLA by 931% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-199
FPI-1.0-113
Sagarin-17.0-593
Market (5 books)-10.5-335
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.549.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +10.5-110-118+1.7%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+320+253priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-23.5
-24.5
Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 23.5, we say Clemson by 24.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side
Market
-23.5
SP+
-26.0
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-30.5
We say
-24.5
Clemson -23.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Clemson to win · -2049
We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Clemson -23.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketClemson by 23.5the number to beat
SP+Clemson by 262.6 apart
FPIClemson by 24.50.8 apart
SagarinClemson by 30.57.2 apart
We settle onClemson by 24.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.0-1818
FPI-24.5-1437
Sagarin-30.5-3480
Market (4 books)-23.5-1168
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.551.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers -23.5-110-104-1.5%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-2049-1437priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-110-149shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+6.5
+6.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side
Market
+6.5
SP+
+5.0
FPI
+8.5
Sagarin
+4.5
We say
+6.0
Florida Atlantic +6.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida Atlantic to win · +202
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough.
Pass
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 65. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Florida Atlantic to win · +202. We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketNavy by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Navy by 51.4 apart
FPINavy by 8.51.8 apart
SagarinNavy by 4.52.2 apart
We settle onNavy by 631% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.0+166
FPI+8.5+231
Sagarin+4.5+154
Market (4 books)+6.5+216
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.565.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida Atlantic Owls +6.5-110-103-1.5%
MoneylineFlorida Atlantic Owls ML+202+183+2.3%
TotalOver 57.5-110-193shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-14.5
-15.5
Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 14.5, we say Iowa by 15.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side
Market
-14.5
SP+
-17.0
FPI
-13.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-15.5
Iowa -14.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Iowa to win · -747
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 41.5 · -110
SP+ projects 42. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Iowa -14.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketIowa by 14.5the number to beat
SP+Iowa by 172.7 apart
FPIIowa by 13.50.8 apart
SagarinIowa by 194.6 apart
We settle onIowa by 15.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-602
FPI-13.5-408
Sagarin-19.0-750
Market (6 books)-14.5-561
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.541.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -14.5-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-747-488priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-31.5
-31.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side
Market
-31.5
SP+
-31.5
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-31.5
LSU -31.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
LSU to win · -10000
We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: LSU -31.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketLSU by 31.5the number to beat
SP+LSU by 31.50.2 apart
FPILSU by 320.3 apart
SagarinLSU by 39.58.2 apart
We settle onLSU by 31.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-31.5-4039
FPI-32.0-4094
Sagarin-39.5-14985
Market (4 books)-31.5-3069
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.546.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLSU Tigers -31.5-110+103-3.2%
MoneylineLSU Tigers ML-10000-3974priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-213shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
pk
+1.5
Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says a pick'em, we say Ohio State by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side
Market
pk
SP+
+7.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
+1.5
Ohio State pk · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Ohio State to win · -105
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough.
Pass
the Over 48.0 · -110
SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Ohio State to win · -105. We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
SP+Ohio State by 7.57.8 apart
FPITexas by 0.50.4 apart
SagarinOhio State by 22.2 apart
We settle onOhio State by 1.560% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+216
FPI-0.5-104
Sagarin+2.0+124
Market (7 books)pk-103
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.050.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes pk-110-113+0.8%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML-105-113+1.9%
TotalOver 48.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+27.0
+26.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side
Market
+27.0
SP+
+25.0
FPI
+26.0
Sagarin
+33.5
We say
+26.5
Oregon State +27.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Oregon State to win · +1800
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 48. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Oregon State +27.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketTexas Tech by 27the number to beat
SP+Texas Tech by 251.7 apart
FPITexas Tech by 261 apart
SagarinTexas Tech by 33.56.6 apart
We settle onTexas Tech by 26.560% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++25.0+1612
FPI+26.0+1774
Sagarin+33.5+5315
Market (5 books)+27.0+1821
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.047.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers +27.0-110-112+0.5%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML+1800+1871priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-135shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm
-29.5
-31.0
Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 29.5, we say Auburn by 31. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side
Market
-29.5
SP+
-34.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-31.0
Auburn -29.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Auburn to win · -5000
We make it 97 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Auburn -29.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketAuburn by 29.5the number to beat
SP+Auburn by 34.55 apart
FPIAuburn by 19.510.1 apart
SagarinAuburn by 39.510.1 apart
We settle onAuburn by 3131% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.5-6135
FPI-19.5-766
Sagarin-39.5-14265
Market (4 books)-29.5-2041
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.050.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAuburn Tigers -29.5-110-111+0.2%
MoneylineAuburn Tigers ML-5000-3615priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.0-110-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebels
sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm
-46.5
-45.0
Lean Charlotte, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Charlotte: market says Ole Miss by 46.5, we say Ole Miss by 45. That can change when the new numbers land.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side
Market
-46.5
SP+
-43.0
FPI
-33.0
Sagarin
-50.5
We say
-45.0
Charlotte +46.5 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
the Under 61.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Charlotte +46.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Full detail
The marketOle Miss by 46.5the number to beat
SP+Ole Miss by 433.7 apart
FPIOle Miss by 3313.7 apart
SagarinOle Miss by 50.54.2 apart
We settle onOle Miss by 4545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-43.0-26145
FPI-33.0-4785
Sagarin-50.5-126783
Market (2 books)-46.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.555.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +46.5-110-123+2.8%
TotalUnder 61.5-110-161shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons
sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm
+6.5
+5.5
Lean Air Force, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Air Force: market says North Dakota State by 6.5, we say North Dakota State by 5.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side
Market
+6.5
SP+
-1.0
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+5.5
Air Force +6.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Air Force to win · +200
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.
Lean
the Over 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Air Force to win · +200. We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.
Full detail
The marketNorth Dakota State by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Air Force by 17.3 apart
FPINorth Dakota State by 33.4 apart
SagarinNorth Dakota State by 33.4 apart
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 5.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-108
FPI+3.0+136
Sagarin+3.0+137
Market (3 books)+6.5+213
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.551.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +6.5-110-110+0.0%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+200+172+3.5%
TotalOver 49.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs
sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm
-18.5
-18.0
Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side
Market
-18.5
SP+
-24.0
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-16.0
We say
-18.0
Sacramento State +18.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Sacramento State to win · +675
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Sacramento State +18.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat
SP+Fresno State by 245.7 apart
FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart
SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart
We settle onFresno State by 1831% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1414
FPI-16.0-520
Sagarin-16.0-534
Market (4 books)-18.5-706
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.545.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +18.5-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+675+642priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.5-110-134shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans
sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm
-28.5
-28.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side
Market
-28.5
SP+
-30.5
FPI
-28.0
We say
-28.5
USC -28.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
USC to win · -7883
We make it 96 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: USC -28.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketUSC by 28.5the number to beat
SP+USC by 30.52 apart
FPIUSC by 280.6 apart
We settle onUSC by 28.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-30.5-3379
FPI-28.0-2342
Sagarindoesn't rate Louisiana
Market (4 books)-28.5-2568
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.065.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUSC Trojans -28.5-110+102-3.0%
MoneylineUSC Trojans ML-7883-2615priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-269shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 6.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-35.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-35.5-4086
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals
sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
-15.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-15.5-611
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm
-10.0
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (4 books)-10.0-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

8 gamesBest: Lean Titans, Jets at Titans
GameMarketOursLean
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
pk
-1.5
Lean Titans

Lean Titans. Market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5.

Jets sideTitans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.5
We say
-1.5
Titans pk · -122 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Titans to win · -130 at TOM
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Titans pk · -122 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

TOM: spread pk here against -1.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart
SagarinTitans by 4.54.5 apart
We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.5-169
Market (9 books)pk-117
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans pk-122-119-0.6%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-130-119-2.2%

TOM: spread pk here against -1.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-4.0
-4.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side
Market
-4.0
nfelo
-2.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-4.0
Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Buccaneers to win · +172 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Buccaneers to win · +172 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketBengals by 4the number to beat
nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart
SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart
We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-136
Sagarin-4.0-162
Market (9 books)-4.0-184
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+172+156+2.2%
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0-113-105-1.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-7.0
-7.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Saints sideLions side
Market
-7.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-7.5
We say
-7.0
Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Saints to win · +253 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Saints to win · +253 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketLions by 7the number to beat
nfeloLions by 60.8 apart
SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-206
Sagarin-7.5-245
Market (9 books)-7.0-271
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+253+226+2.4%
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +7.0-116-107-1.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
+3.5
+3.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ravens sideColts side
Market
+3.5
nfelo
+0.5
Sagarin
+3.5
We say
+3.0
Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Colts to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Colts to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart
SagarinRavens by 3.50.2 apart
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+108
Sagarin+3.5+147
Market (9 books)+3.5+160
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+150+144+0.9%
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.5-120-107-2.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
+2.5
+2.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bears sidePanthers side
Market
+2.5
nfelo
+1.0
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
+2.5
Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Panthers to win · +130 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Panthers to win · +130 at TOM. We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat
nfeloBears by 11.7 apart
SagarinBears by 20.4 apart
We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+110
Sagarin+2.0+127
Market (9 books)+2.5+141
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+130+130+0.0%
SpreadCarolina Panthers +2.5+100+105-1.1%

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-3.0
-3.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Steelers by 3, we say Steelers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side
Market
-3.0
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.0
Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Steelers to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat
nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart
SagarinSteelers by 41 apart
We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.0-159
Market (9 books)-3.0-162
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers -3.0-125-103-4.7%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML-180-143-5.4%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
pk
pk
Pass

Pass. Market says a pick'em, we say a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bills sideTexans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-0.5
Sagarin
pk
We say
pk
Texans pk · -106 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texans to win · -107 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Texans pk · -106 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart
Sagarina pick'em0 apart
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-0.5-106
Sagarinpk-100
Market (9 books)pk+102
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans pk-106-101-1.2%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML-107-101-1.5%

TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-8.0
-8.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Jaguars by 8, we say Jaguars by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Browns sideJaguars side
Market
-8.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.5
We say
-8.0
Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Browns to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
If you're betting it anyway: Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat
nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart
SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart
We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-197
Sagarin-9.5-310
Market (9 books)-8.0-325
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +8.0-113-112-0.2%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+310+252priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units
LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00
WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93
LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00
WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95
LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00
WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

Loading scores...

How it's going

3-3Record
-0.2Units
-3.5%ROI
8Open

It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

Bet something we didn't pick? Add it here
Saved
56 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.
Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 56 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 70 games across 9 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 5 were worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 1:17 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 3.7California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orangetoward Syracuse Orangeagainst the public
  • → 3.7Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogstoward Georgia Bulldogswith the public
  • → 3.2Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokiestoward Virginia Tech Hokieswith the public
  • → 2.7Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboystoward Oregon Duckswith the public
  • → 2.5Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskiestoward Washington Huskieswith the public
  • → 2.2Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcatstoward Kansas State Wildcatswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 0 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 4347 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.14 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
FanDuel570.35
BetOnline.ag630.18
LowVig.ag600.16
DraftKings630.09
BetRivers420.05
BetMGM450.04

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated today
  • nfelo updated today
Built 1:21 PM. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Odds API calls left this month: 145.
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