Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Best on the board right now
Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is A Little Nasty. Small money, our side, no receipt.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +2.5 at +105 (0.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.4%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -104 (-1.6%).
Buck's Take
Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Under 59 (UCLA at Maryland) at 5.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.
If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: UCLA at Maryland, Under 59. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +2.5 at +105 (0.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.4%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -104 (-1.6%).Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 29 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +8.5, Cincinnati +6.5, UConn +5. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
5.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM +8 at -108 (6.0%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (5.6%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (5.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars, TOM or Kalshi +8.5 at -115 (5.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at -108 (4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +8.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +8 (the games that land on 8); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.5.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Cincinnati): TOM +6.5 at +105 (5.2%) · Fanatics +7 at -110 (5.2%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (4.0%) · Caesars +6.5 at -102 (3.5%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +7 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +6.5 (the games that land on 7); -110 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than +105. A wash; either is fine.5.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UConn): TOM +5 at -115 (5.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (3.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -108 (3.1%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -132 (-1.9%).5.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (5.9%) · TOM +8 at -110 (5.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at -127 (0.3%).4.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +4 at -110 (3.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -122 (-0.5%).4.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings +14 at -110 (4.0%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (3.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +14 at -115 (2.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (1.8%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 53¢ (-0.6%).3.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (3.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +12.5 at -110 (3.3%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at -144 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.3.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UAB): Caesars +10.5 at -108 (3.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +10.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (2.2%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 53¢ (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at -132 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.21 more, weaker reads
3.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Nevada): Fanatics +5 at -110 (3.4%) · TOM +5 at -112 (3.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars +4.5 at -110 (2.5%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 51¢ (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.4.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel, DraftKings or Kalshi +1.5 at -115 (4.2%) · Fanatics -1 at -105 (2.9%) · Caesars or TOM PK at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -113 (-0.2%).3.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Akron): Fanatics or TOM +14 at -105 (3.4%) · Caesars +14 at -108 (2.7%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (2.2%) · DraftKings +14 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 54¢ (0.7%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); -118 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.2.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Iowa State): DraftKings or Fanatics +11.5 at -110 (3.2%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -105 (2.5%) · TOM +11 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at -113 (0.7%).1.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Kalshi or Caesars +13.5 at -112 (0.4%) · TOM +13.5 at -117 (-0.8%).1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Oklahoma): DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +14 at -110 (1.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.6%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.2.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Washington State): DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (3.0%) · Fanatics +13 at -110 (2.4%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at -138 (-4.0%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 59 at -110 (5.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 58.5 at -105 (5.2%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (4.0%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 52¢ (2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 59.5 at -105 (4.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (3.1%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 52¢ (1.9%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 58.5 at -113 (0.1%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 56 at -110 (3.7%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 64¢ (-8.5%).Points or price: 55.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 56 (the games that land on 56); 64¢ costs about 13 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.3.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Fanatics +9 at -110 (3.1%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 47.5 at -110 (3.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (1.9%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (0.5%).2.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Minnesota): DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +9.5 at -110 (2.9%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.1%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 53¢ (0.5%).2.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UCF): TOM +3 at +100 (2.6%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (2.4%) · Fanatics +3 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (0.6%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +100. A wash; either is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (4.7%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -105 (3.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 59.5 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at -127 (-1.4%).2.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (South Florida): FanDuel -16.5 at -105 (2.1%) · DraftKings -16.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi -16.5 at 51¢ (0.6%) · Caesars -16.5 at -113 (0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -16.5 at -115 (-0.2%).2.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Temple): DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +3 at -105 (2.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (1.7%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -132 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -120 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.0%) · Caesars 54.5 at -105 (0.8%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at -127 (-3.9%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 44.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 44.5 at -113 (0.4%).0.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Wake Forest): FanDuel +13.5 at -104 (0.6%) · Caesars +13.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +13.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 51¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at -113 (-1.4%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (1.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 53 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at -132 (-5.6%).Moved closer since the 1:22pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:22pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Iowa at Michigan Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Iowa +6.0: 0.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -5.0 to +5.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - South Carolina at Alabama Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at South Carolina +13.0: 1.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -12.0 to +12.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Northern Illinois at Georgia State Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Northern Illinois +10.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -9.0 to +9.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Hawai'i at Wyoming Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Hawai'i -3.0: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -5.0 to -4.0; the price from -110 to -115. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Liberty at Coastal Carolina Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Coastal Carolina +1.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +1.5 to +1.0; the price from -110 to -103. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - App State at NC State Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at App State +14.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - South Florida at Bowling Green Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at South Florida -16.0: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The line went from -16.0 to -16.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Utah at Iowa State Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Sniff of Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Iowa State +11.5: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The line went from +11.5 to +11.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 3 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
6 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Jaguars, Jaguars at BroncosJacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL 3:05pmJaguars +2.5should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | -144 | +130 |
All 26 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -115 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -6522 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 -122 53¢ | 45.5 -113 51¢ | -144 57¢ | +117 44¢ |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -144 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -113 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | -144 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 45.5 -104 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 45 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 72°F.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +143 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | +105 | +102 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +127 | +127 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL 3:25pmCardinals +4should be Cardinals +4 at BetMGMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -125 | 40.5 -116 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -108 | 41.5 -101 | +176 | -198 |
All 26 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -125 | 40.5 -116 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -109 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -105 | 41 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 40.5 -116 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +4 -109 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4 -109 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -104 | 40.5 -118 | +174 | -209 |
| Courtside | — | 36.5 +157 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 -108 50¢ | 42.5 +108 46¢ | +163 36¢ | -212 66¢ |
| Fanatics | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 41.5 -102 | +176 | -210 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +175 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -110 | 40.5 -116 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +176 | -210 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -108 | 41.5 -101 | +176 | -198 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +104 | 41.5 +100 | +186 | -194 |
| ReBet | +4 -109 | 41.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +4.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.0 consensus.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +251 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +294 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +162 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 39.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +180 | +158 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +4.0 | -105 | -116 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -116 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.0 consensus; total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL 3:05pmRaiders +6.5should be Raiders +6.5 at DraftKingsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -312 | +237 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -107 | 43 -115 | -292 | +252 |
All 25 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -312 | +237 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -312 | +254 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -113 | -310 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -1702 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -122 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 -117 52¢ | 42.5 -132 55¢ | -317 74¢ | +233 28¢ |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -340 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -107 | -312 | +254 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +246 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -107 | 43 -115 | -292 | +252 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 43.5 -104 | -285 | +270 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +246 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · +102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -214 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -271 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -299 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | +102 | -114 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +260 | +220 | +3.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL 7:20pmChiefs -5.5should be Chiefs -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chiefs's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 +104 | 46 +101 | -276 | +239 |
All 26 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
| BetMGM | — | 46 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 46 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 45.5 +105 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -6 -107 | 45.5 -118 | -275 | +220 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -563 | -258 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 46.5 -102 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 -117 52¢ | 45.5 -117 52¢ | -284 72¢ | +212 30¢ |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -115 | 46 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -325 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6 -115 | 46 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 +100 | 46.5 -102 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -6 +104 | 46 +101 | -276 | +239 |
| Polymarket | -4.5 -113 | 45.5 -104 | -245 | +233 |
| ReBet | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| theScore Bet | -6 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Chiefs, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -243 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -216 |
| Market (22 books) | -5.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -270 | -224 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-15 09:07; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL 3:25pmCowboys -4should be Cowboys -4 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 51 -106 | -203 | +181 |
All 26 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -4 -105 | 51 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -107 | 51 -110 | -205 | +177 |
| betPARX | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -4 -112 | 51 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -4 -111 | 50.5 -117 | -209 | +175 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -6611 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -102 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 -122 53¢ | 51.5 -100 48¢ | -212 66¢ | +163 36¢ |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -106 | 50.5 -118 | -215 | +180 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -230 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -4.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -102 | 51 -107 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 +100 | 51 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 51 -106 | -203 | +181 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 51.5 +108 | -194 | +186 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -210 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -161 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -177 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -172 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.0 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.0 | -107 | +111 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -205 | -165 | -5.0% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL 3:25pm49ers -13.5should be 49ers -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49ers by 13 to 49ers by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +101 | -985 | +709 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -105 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 45 -108 | -1000 | +675 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 45 -110 | -1050 | +686 |
| betPARX | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetRivers | -13 -109 | 45 -110 | -910 | +575 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -13 -115 | 45 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 -117 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -1685 | -898 | +652 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -950 | +625 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 -108 50¢ | 45.5 -100 48¢ | -1150 90¢ | +614 12¢ |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -1000 | +660 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -1420 | +730 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -109 | 45 -107 | -1050 | +686 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1133 | +753 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +101 | -985 | +709 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 +104 | 44.5 -108 | -900 | +809 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -952 | +640 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -431 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -730 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -642 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (22 books) | -13.5 | -903 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +13.5 | -105 | +106 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +756 | +553 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -120 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmRams -6.5should be Rams -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
All 26 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +245 |
| BetMGM | -7 -102 | 47.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +249 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -6611 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 -127 54¢ | 48.5 -100 48¢ | -317 74¢ | +233 28¢ |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -115 | -355 | +255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -305 | +249 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -319 | +246 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -122 | 47.5 | -285 | +270 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $9 available; Over 47.5, only $414 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | -117 | +105 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -285 | -240 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pmCoastal Carolina +1should be Coastal Carolina PK · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -107 50¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -107 50¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -125 | +102 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -127 | +102 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 52.5 -103 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 52.5 -117 52¢ | -108 50¢ | -113 51¢ |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 52 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -0.5 -111 | 52.5 -116 | -113 | -117 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $13 available; Under 53.5, only $3 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +0.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (13 books) | +1.0 | +102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +105 | +102 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1.0 | -103 | -103 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Liberty Flames since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +0.6 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.
Fri Sep 25
4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UAB, Navy at UABNavy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UABCFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pmUAB +10.5should be UAB +10 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +12Sniff of Nasty · UABBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UAB. Market says Navy by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 10. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UAB is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -110 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | +351 21¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -110 | 53 -115 | — | — |
All 16 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -110 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | +351 21¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | +335 | -455 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -110 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | +335 | -455 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +335 | -455 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| Courtside | +10.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | +350 | -455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 -132 55¢ | 52.5 -132 55¢ | +335 21¢ | -456 80¢ |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +320 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -106 | 53 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | +10.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | +310 | -469 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for UAB, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UAB +10.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +10.5. The market has moved 1.7 toward UAB, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen ML, only $160 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UAB's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +159 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +244 |
| Market (13 books) | +10.5 | +402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 60.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UAB Blazers +10.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | UAB Blazers ML | +335 | +276 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson +1.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be Clemson -2 · getting 3.5 pts at FanDuel · was -1.5Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 3 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 3 points more in Clemson's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +100 | -122 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +1.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +100 | -121 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +100 | -122 |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 50 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -103 | 50.5 -108 | -108 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 -178 62¢ | 49.5 -117 52¢ | -113 51¢ | -108 50¢ |
| Fanatics | +1 -115 | 50 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -114 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 +100 | 48.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -106 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -0.5 -114 | 49.5 -109 | -114 | -116 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson +1.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now PK. The market has moved 1.5 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +173 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (13 books) | PK | +102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +1.5 | -115 | -136 | +4.2% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -105 | -123 | +4.0% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward California Golden Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.6 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmTemple +3should be Temple +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsSniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +128 | -159 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 50.5 -104 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 50.5 -106 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 -132 55¢ | 50.5 -122 53¢ | +133 41¢ | -163 60¢ |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -111 | +126 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -105 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +179 |
| Market (13 books) | +3.0 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.0 | -105 | -114 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +132 | +123 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNorthwestern +22.5should be Northwestern +21.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 22.5.
The spread
The total
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -109 | 48 -108 | — | +1400 |
| Caesars | -22.5 -114 | 47.5 -114 | — | — |
| Courtside | -22.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -3022 | +1639 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 47.5 -122 53¢ | -3233 95¢ | +1011 7¢ |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1280 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -111 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -23.5 -119 | 47.5 -116 | -3030 | +870 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Northwestern).
TOM: spread -22.5 here against -22.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | -17.5 | -668 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -762 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (12 books) | -22.5 | -2987 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +22.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1400 | +1079 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -22.5 here against -22.9 consensus.
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTexas A&M +8.5should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 8.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -335 | +255 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 53.5 -108 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 -122 53¢ | 53.5 -108 50¢ | -355 76¢ | +270 25¢ |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -106 | -315 | +250 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -101 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | -350 | +244 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +8.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (15 books) | -8.5 | -312 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.5 | -115 | -143 | +5.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +310 | +205 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.1 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCincinnati +6.5should be Cincinnati +5.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +7Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.0 as well.
The spread
The total
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 53.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 53.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 53.5 -114 | +210 | -265 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -102 | 52.5 -117 | — | — |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +194 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 -127 54¢ | — | +194 32¢ | -234 68¢ |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 53 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +200 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +109 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -114 | +204 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +6.5 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +108 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +157 |
| Market (13 books) | +6.5 | +236 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | +105 | -117 | +5.2% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +210 | +178 | +3.8% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUConn +5should be UConn +2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -105 | 51 -115 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +143 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -105 | 51 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -3.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 -122 53¢ | 49.5 -127 54¢ | -178 62¢ | +144 39¢ |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -176 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -101 | 51 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 49.5 -109 | -202 | +149 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: UConn Huskies +3.5, only $26 available; Under 49.5, only $450 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -138 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -104 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +5.0 | -115 | -141 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +143 | +131 | +2.1% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 49.6 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCharlotte +14should be Charlotte +12 · getting 2 pts at DraftKings · was +13.5Sniff of Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 14, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 51.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Charlotte is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | — | — | -609 85¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | — | — | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | +450 | -670 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | +450 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 | +440 | -670 |
| Caesars | +14 -113 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 51.5 -116 | +439 | -553 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +425 | -575 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 -138 56¢ | — | +426 17¢ | -670 85¢ |
| Fanatics | +14 -115 | 52 -105 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -111 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | 51.5 -119 | +410 | -699 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers ML, only $152 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +210 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +217 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +260 |
| Market (13 books) | +14.0 | +566 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +14.0 | -110 | -129 | +4.0% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +450 | +354 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Louisiana Ragin Cajuns since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmWestern Michigan +8should be Western Michigan +7 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +7▲Sniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Boise State by 8, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | +240 | -315 |
| Caesars | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +246 | -290 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +240 | -298 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 -127 54¢ | 47.5 -132 55¢ | +257 26¢ | -335 75¢ |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +265 | -330 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -106 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 47.5 -119 | +246 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Sniff of Nasty · Western Michigan.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +8.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +264 |
| Market (12 books) | +8.0 | +289 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +8.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +265 | +209 | +4.9% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado State +12.5should be Colorado State +11 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was +13Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colorado State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -455 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -113 | 56.5 -110 | -480 | +335 |
| Caesars | — | 59 -110 | -560 | +425 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 -122 53¢ | 57.5 -132 55¢ | -566 83¢ | +400 18¢ |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 57.5 -109 | -549 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Colorado State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -322 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -306 |
| Market (13 books) | -12.5 | -469 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +12.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +425 | +314 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.3 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +4.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +3.5Sniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 4, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | -175 | +138 |
| Caesars | — | 51.5 -106 | -179 | +150 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 -117 52¢ | 51.5 -132 55¢ | -178 62¢ | +144 39¢ |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -176 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -4.5 -109 | 51.5 -105 | -208 | +153 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -173 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (13 books) | -4.0 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +4.5 | -110 | -133 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +150 | +134 | +2.7% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNevada +5should be Nevada +4 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +4.5Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -112 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | +159 37¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -112 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -112 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | +159 37¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -112 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +167 | -200 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | +163 36¢ | -212 66¢ |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 49 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +162 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -108 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 48.5 -119 | +166 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +5.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $157 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (10 books) | +5.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +170 | +146 | +3.6% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +5.0 | -112 | -126 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.7 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 49should be 47.4 · getting 1.3 pts · was 49.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 49.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Washington State too: market says Arizona by 13, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.0 | +498 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +13.0 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +400 | +337 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa State +11should be Iowa State +10.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +12Sniff of Nasty · Iowa StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Iowa State. Market says Utah by 11, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +12 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +410 | -590 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +12 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +410 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +12 -110 | 48.5 -114 | +400 | -590 |
| Caesars | — | 49.5 -105 | +380 | -500 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +370 | -485 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 -113 51¢ | 49.5 -108 50¢ | +355 20¢ | -526 82¢ |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +390 | -525 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +375 | -500 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | +350 | -549 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for Iowa State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +11.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +11.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +278 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +142 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +213 |
| Market (12 books) | +11.0 | +474 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +11.0 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | +383 | +299 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +11.4 consensus.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmAkron +14should be Akron +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +490 16¢ | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +490 16¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | +460 | -715 |
| Caesars | +14 -108 | 49.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 49.5 -103 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 -138 56¢ | 49.5 -122 53¢ | +456 16¢ | -614 84¢ |
| Fanatics | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | 49.5 -114 | +430 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +14.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +276 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +123 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +406 |
| Market (13 books) | +14.0 | +619 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +14.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +493 | +379 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -348 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -225 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +267 | +239 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmMinnesota +9.5should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +7.5Sniff of Nasty · MinnesotaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Minnesota. Market says Washington by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | — | +313 23¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | — | +313 23¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | -376 77¢ | +285 24¢ |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -114 | 45.5 -114 | -410 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $450 available; Washington Huskies ML, only $234 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | -7.0 | -207 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -350 |
| Market (9 books) | -9.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5 | -110 | -124 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +320 | +244 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUL Monroe +13.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UL Monroe's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -121 53¢ | +398 19¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -121 53¢ | +398 19¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -113 | 58.5 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | +425 | -590 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +440 | -610 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 +100 | 58.5 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -113 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -119 | +370 | -599 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +13.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $164 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +211 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +425 | +370 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +12Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 45.5 +109 46¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 45.5 +109 46¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -113 | -590 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -113 | -590 | +410 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -109 | 44.5 -114 | -590 | +410 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 44.5 -108 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 45.5 +100 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 45.5 -102 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | -733 86¢ | +488 15¢ |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 44 -115 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -690 | +465 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 44 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 45.5 -109 | -699 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs -13.5, only $243 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -252 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -248 |
| Market (15 books) | -14.0 | -582 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +475 | +387 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.5 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUCF +3should be UCF +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 51 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 50.5 -117 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 -138 56¢ | 50.5 -132 55¢ | +133 41¢ | -163 60¢ |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 51 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -111 | 51 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 51.5 -109 | +127 | -170 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +2.5, only $33 available; UCF Knights ML, only $94 available; TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -142 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.0 | +100 | -111 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +135 | +127 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.2 consensus.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmOver 47.5should be 49.6 · getting 2.1 pts · was 52.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Michigan State too: market says Nebraska by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 5, but at -114 that's too thin.
The spread
The total
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 -108 50¢ | — | +156 37¢ | -194 64¢ |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 48 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +158 | -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | +169 | -232 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +4.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +221 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (12 books) | +6.5 | +182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +6.5 | -114 | -125 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +160 | +167 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.4.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +4.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amWake Forest +13.5should be Wake Forest +13 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · Wake ForestBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Wake Forest. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 13. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Wake Forest is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 58 -113 | -625 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -112 | 57.5 -118 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 -113 51¢ | 57.5 -117 52¢ | -566 83¢ | +400 18¢ |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 57.5 -115 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 58 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 58.5 -109 | -599 | +370 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -104 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $50 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $160 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $165 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -11.5 | -329 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -377 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -327 |
| Market (13 books) | -13.5 | -531 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5 | -104 | -106 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +460 | +395 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amSouth Florida -16.5should be South Florida -17.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -15Sniff of Nasty · South FloridaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Florida. Market says South Florida by 16.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 17.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +16.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +16.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +625 13¢ | -869 89¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +16.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +16.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +625 13¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -113 | 51.5 -112 | +425 | -715 |
| Caesars | +16.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +600 | -950 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +706 | -987 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +675 | -1050 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +16.5 -127 54¢ | 51.5 -127 54¢ | +566 13¢ | -1011 89¢ |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +650 | -950 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +580 | -880 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -101 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +16.5 -111 | 51.5 -114 | +490 | -901 |
| theScore Bet | +15.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +550 | -900 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Florida -16.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now Sniff of Nasty · South Florida. The line went from +16.0 to +16.5.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +16.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward South Florida, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +16.5 here against +15.9 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1148 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +467 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +616 |
| Market (12 books) | +16.5 | +751 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -16.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -890 | -648 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread +16.5 here against +15.9 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 55should be 53.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 54.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Georgia State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Northern Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 -132 55¢ | 54.5 -127 54¢ | -426 79¢ | +317 22¢ |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -380 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -296 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -164 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -340 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +320 | +266 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 53should be 52 · getting 1 pt · was 50.5▲Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 53.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | — | — | +266 26¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | — | — | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 -117 52¢ | 52.5 -122 53¢ | -355 76¢ | +257 26¢ |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 53 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | -350 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 52.5 -116 | -391 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Sniff of Nasty · Under.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers -9.5, only $50 available; Over 52.5, only $100 available; Under 52.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -255 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -158 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -333 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +258 | +2.0% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 59.5should be 57.3 · getting 2.2 pts · was 58Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 3, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | — | +101 48¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | — | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -109 | 58.5 -109 | -129 | +104 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 -113 51¢ | 58.5 -127 54¢ | -132 55¢ | +108 46¢ |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 58.5 -120 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 59.5 -109 | -141 | +107 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Ole Miss, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $100 available; Florida Gators ML, only $420 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -150 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +156 |
| Market (13 books) | -3.0 | -123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.0 | -115 | -115 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +114 | +122 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -105 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.0 consensus.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amOver 56should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 pts · was 56.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -191 64¢ | +174 35¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -191 64¢ | +174 35¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +6 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +185 | -230 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -112 | 57.5 -114 | +180 | -230 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | +171 35¢ | -223 67¢ |
| Fanatics | +5 -105 | 57 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +172 | -210 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +5.5 -111 | 57.5 -111 | +173 | -238 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +5.5, only $13 available; Texas Longhorns -5.5, only $14 available; Under 55.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +213 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (13 books) | +5.0 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -5.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -210 | -171 | -4.7% |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 59should be 55.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 8.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 59 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | +116 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +115 | -143 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | +2.5 -103 | 58.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 -132 55¢ | — | +108 46¢ | -132 55¢ |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 59 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 57.5 -119 | +105 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins -1.5, only $468 available; Over 58.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -115 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +115 | +116 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 6.8.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmUnder 44.5should be 43.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 43.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 44.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -109 | -435 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -109 | -435 | +325 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -455 | +325 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -108 | -483 | +392 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 -117 52¢ | 44.5 -113 51¢ | -456 80¢ | +335 21¢ |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 44.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 44.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 44.5 -114 | -490 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -527 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (13 books) | -10.0 | -403 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -410 | -333 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 59.5should be 57.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 59.5 -132 55¢ | -127 54¢ | -100 48¢ |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | -126 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 59.5 -114 | -126 | -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward West Virginia).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -184 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 | -103 | +102 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +105 | +123 | -4.0% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNew Mexico State +13.5should be New Mexico State +13.5 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 13.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 50.5 -114 | +370 | -560 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -103 | 49.5 -117 | +450 | -590 |
| Courtside | +12.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 -122 53¢ | 49.5 -127 54¢ | +426 17¢ | -670 85¢ |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -104 | 50.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 +104 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | 50.5 -111 | +410 | -676 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is New Mexico State +13.5 · +100 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +508 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +311 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +319 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +549 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +13.5 | +100 | -103 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +450 | +408 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa +5.5should be Iowa +5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 38 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 38 -105 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 38 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 38 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -113 | -210 | +163 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -108 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -110 | -198 | +164 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 -113 51¢ | 37.5 -138 56¢ | -194 64¢ | +163 36¢ |
| Fanatics | -5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -200 | +164 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -205 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 37.5 -115 | -250 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -111 | 38 -103 | — | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -111 | 37.5 -119 | -255 | +185 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +5.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $34 available; Over 37.5, only $6 available; Under 37.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -166 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (14 books) | -5.5 | -190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 | -105 | -116 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +165 | +164 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmKennesaw State +5should be Kennesaw State +4.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +5.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -135 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -221 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +5.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +163 | +161 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmApp State +14should be App State +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 14, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| Caesars | -14 -108 | 55.5 -105 | -560 | +400 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 -132 55¢ | 54.5 -138 56¢ | -566 83¢ | +376 19¢ |
| Fanatics | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -580 | +420 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -101 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -649 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for App State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from App State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -981 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -533 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +14.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +400 | +413 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmSouth Carolina +12should be South Carolina +12 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 53.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 53.5 -117 52¢ | -488 81¢ | +355 20¢ |
| Fanatics | -12 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -120 | 53.5 -120 | -515 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -106 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | -526 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from South Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5, only $1 available; South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5, only $39 available; Under 54.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -388 |
| Market (13 books) | -12.0 | -452 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +370 | +350 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -105 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amVirginia Tech -14should be Virginia Tech -14 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | +490 16¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | +490 16¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | +440 | -715 |
| Caesars | +14 -107 | 54 -110 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +508 | -646 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +490 | -675 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 -132 55¢ | 53.5 -132 55¢ | +488 15¢ | -733 86¢ |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -115 | 54 +100 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +490 | -710 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -111 | 53.5 -119 | +430 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 62°F, 39% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Boston College).
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $232 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +14.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| FPI | +15.0 | +505 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +314 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (12 books) | +14.0 | +621 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -14.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -710 | -441 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +14.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amGeorgia Southern +19should be Georgia Southern +18 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 19.
The spread
The total
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +20.5 | 54.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +20.5 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 -110 | 54 -114 | +700 | -1250 |
| Caesars | — | 55.5 -105 | +850 | -1450 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | +953 | -1467 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 54.5 -127 54¢ | +809 9¢ | -1567 92¢ |
| Fanatics | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | +750 | -1200 |
| FanDuel | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +740 | -1250 |
| LowVig.ag | +19 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +19.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | +590 | -1205 |
| theScore Bet | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +750 | -1400 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +19.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $49 available; Over 54.5, only $326 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $177 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +16.5 | +579 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +542 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +459 |
| Market (12 books) | +19.0 | +1123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +19.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +900 | +687 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.8 consensus.
The line is +19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amIllinois +27should be Illinois +26 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The total
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -26.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -26.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1400 |
| Courtside | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +2246 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -27.5 -117 52¢ | 52.5 -113 51¢ | -9897 97¢ | +1567 4¢ |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | +1000 |
| theScore Bet | -26.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | +2000 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1644 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -957 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1043 |
| Market (12 books) | -27.0 | -4016 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5 | -104 | -106 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +2000 | +2005 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amJames Madison -4.5should be James Madison -5.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -182 63¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | +155 | -195 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | +155 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 -122 53¢ | 50.5 -127 54¢ | +150 38¢ | -185 63¢ |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -116 | 49.5 -116 | +161 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +237 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +162 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +203 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +174 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -4.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -175 | -175 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amSouthern Miss +19should be Southern Miss +18 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 19.
The spread
The total
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -1250 | +700 |
| Caesars | — | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| Courtside | -18.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| Fanatics | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +980 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -111 | 54.5 -111 | -1299 | +620 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Tulane).
Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +20.5, only $159 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $418 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -498 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -947 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -667 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.0 | -1246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +20.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +980 | +709 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Tulane Green Wave since 09-20 06:03.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amSouth Alabama +21should be South Alabama +19.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 21.
The spread
The total
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -113 | 57 -108 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -19.5 -113 | 57 -108 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -114 | 57 -109 | -1430 | +750 |
| Caesars | — | 55.5 -114 | -1700 | +900 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 55.5 -132 55¢ | -1901 93¢ | +900 8¢ |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -120 | 56.5 -105 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -111 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 56.5 -111 | -1408 | +620 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward South Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats -20.5, only $4 available; South Alabama Jaguars +20.5, only $3 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $191 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1919 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -531 |
| Market (13 books) | -21.0 | -1316 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +21.0 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +900 | +842 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.0 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmHawai'i -4should be Hawai'i -5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 4, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 5.5. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 45.5 -113 | +170 | -220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 44.5 -117 | +174 | -209 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 -117 52¢ | 44.5 -127 54¢ | +163 36¢ | -203 65¢ |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 45 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | +180 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -101 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 45.5 -109 | +173 | -238 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now Not Nasty. The line went from +5.0 to +4.0.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +5.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| FPI | +9.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +127 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (13 books) | +4.0 | +196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -4.0 | -115 | -101 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -200 | -172 | -3.5% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +5.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmBaylor -8.5should be Baylor -9.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 9.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -360 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -360 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 52.5 -113 | -360 | +255 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -112 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 -138 56¢ | 53.5 -132 55¢ | -317 74¢ | +257 26¢ |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 53 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -365 | +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -101 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -8.5 -116 | 52.5 -116 | -370 | +255 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Baylor Bears -9.5, only $11 available; Colorado Buffaloes +9.5, only $39 available; Over 53.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -327 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -181 |
| Market (13 books) | -8.5 | -308 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears -8.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | -290 | -264 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNotre Dame -27.5should be Notre Dame -27 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.5.
The spread
The total
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +1400 | — |
| Caesars | +27.5 -107 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| Courtside | +27.5 -103 | 56.5 -113 | +2246 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +2000 | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | +27.5 -122 53¢ | 57.5 -122 53¢ | +1329 5¢ | -4900 96¢ |
| Fanatics | +28 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1800 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +27.5 -101 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -119 | 57.5 -114 | +1025 | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +1500 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2132 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +639 |
| Massey | +25.0 | +1756 |
| Market (13 books) | +27.5 | +3687 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +27.5 | -105 | +108 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2000 | +2417 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmMassachusetts -6should be Massachusetts -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 6, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -113 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -113 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +6.5 -107 | 49.5 -118 | +198 | -240 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | +186 33¢ | -245 69¢ |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -104 | 49.5 -118 | +202 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 50.5 -111 | +196 | -275 |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Massachusetts).
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| FPI | +11.5 | +330 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -178 |
| Market (8 books) | +6.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -6.0 | -107 | +106 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -240 | -189 | -5.2% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 55should be 53.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 37.5.
The spread
The total
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37 -114 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37 -114 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -114 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -37.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -35.5 -170 61¢ | 55.5 -127 54¢ | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2379 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +37.5 | -110 | -136 | +5.2% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -37.1 consensus.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmToledo -2.5should be Toledo -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -106 | 47.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -106 | 47.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -1 -107 | 47.5 -110 | -112 | -112 |
| Caesars | — | 48.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -1.5 -103 | 48.5 -108 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 48.5 -132 55¢ | -122 53¢ | +104 47¢ |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 48.5 -114 | -125 | -106 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Toledo, now Not Nasty. The line went from -1.5 to -2.5.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -146 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (13 books) | -2.5 | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +112 | +125 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmVirginia -20.5should be Virginia -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.
The spread
The total
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -2000 | +850 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1700 | +900 |
| Courtside | -21 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 -132 55¢ | 54.5 -132 55¢ | -1901 93¢ | +900 8¢ |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -21.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | -1587 | +670 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -515 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1163 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -2106 |
| Market (11 books) | -20.5 | -1431 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +21.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +900 | +918 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 54.5should be 51.2 · getting 3.3 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.
The spread
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -42.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42 -106 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $0 available; Under 55.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -139 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmOregon -2.5should be Oregon -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -101 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 62.5 -112 51¢ | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +102 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -101 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 62.5 -112 51¢ | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -113 | 62 -113 | +105 | -127 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 62.5 -102 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +102 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2 -113 | 62 -113 | +105 | -127 |
| BetRivers | +2 -114 | 62 -114 | +104 | -129 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 62.5 -110 | +103 | -122 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -103 | 62.5 -108 | +104 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 -113 51¢ | 61.5 -127 54¢ | +104 47¢ | -132 55¢ |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | +100 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +106 | 61.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +1.5 -111 | 62.5 -111 | -102 | -130 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +2.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Oregon).
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +2.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.1 consensus.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 62.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +132 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (14 books) | +2.5 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +2.5 | -101 | +103 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +105 | +124 | -4.1% |
| Total | Over 61.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.1 consensus; total 61.5 here against 62.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUtah State -2.5should be Utah State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -140 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -207 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +2.5 | -104 | +104 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +115 | +126 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmMississippi State -3.5should be Mississippi State -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -110 | -162 | +133 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -110 | -162 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 59.5 -112 | -165 | +132 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 -122 53¢ | 58.5 -117 52¢ | -185 63¢ | +123 43¢ |
| Fanatics | -4 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -116 | 59 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 58.5 -116 | -198 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -183 |
| Massey | PK | +102 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | -177 | -150 | -3.9% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmArkansas -7should be Arkansas -7 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 7, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -335 | +255 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -335 | +250 |
| Caesars | — | 52.5 -112 | -310 | +245 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 52.5 -113 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 -127 54¢ | — | -300 73¢ | +233 28¢ |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -108 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 52.5 -116 | -350 | +242 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Tulsa, now Not Nasty. The line went from -8.0 to -7.0.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Tulsa).
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5, only $25 available; Under 52.5, only $159 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $331 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -286 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -679 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -288 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks -7.0 | -112 | +115 | -6.2% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | -290 | -209 | -6.8% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.8 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmUnder 59.5should be 57.9 · getting 1.6 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The total
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -113 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | — | +2100 |
| Courtside | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 -127 54¢ | 59.5 -127 54¢ | — | +1900 3¢ |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -106 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -111 | 59.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2727 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -29.0 | -3184 |
| Market (13 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +3734 | +5997 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmOregon State -12should be Oregon State -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 11.5 to Oregon State by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +11.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +14.0 | +432 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +238 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +329 |
| Market (11 books) | +12.0 | +449 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -12.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -537 | -363 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.6.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmFresno State -13should be Fresno State -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -501 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -456 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -503 |
| Market (9 books) | -13.0 | -504 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -540 | -421 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -5should be Georgia Tech -5.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 47.5 -104 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | +156 37¢ | -203 65¢ |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +167 | -230 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Stanford).
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +5.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +223 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +201 |
| Market (9 books) | +5.0 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -190 | -176 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-1 · +0.82 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1745%-4.19 units31 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-5 · -3.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-17 | 45.2% | -4.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 127 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 13:21.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 71 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.67 | 56 |
| FPI | 9.86 | 111 |
| SP+ | 10.03 | 111 |
| The market | 10.21 | 162 |
| Sagarin | 11.70 | 152 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 57 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 56 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 57 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 71 |
The line archive, 162 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.46 points better than the close on average over 152 games. The close misses the final by 10.10, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.32, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.33, MyBookie.ag 9.83, Kalshi 9.91.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 42 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 8 times, against it 10, average -0.03 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 7.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 43 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 8 of 43 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 8. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Minnesota +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Over | 41 | 41 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Over | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | New York +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| App State at NC State | Appalachian State +13.5 | 13.5 | 13.7 | -0.2 | no call |
| James Madison at Old Dominion | James Madison -3 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 113 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 62 | 14.8 | 18-27 (40%) | 12-14 (46%) |
| Massey | 66 | 13.8 | 14-17 (45%) | 5-11 (31%) |
| The blend | 67 | 14.1 | 14-23 (38%) | 9-11 (45%) |
NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 3 | 6.1 | 3-0 (100%) | — |
| FPI | 1 | 18.6 | — | — |
| The blend | 3 | 6.7 | 2-0 (100%) | — |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 65 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
What's changed since 1:32pm
- MovedKansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats is now Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5, was Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0.
- NewUConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawks is now a pick: UConn Huskies +5.0 at -115.
- OffUtah Utes at Iowa State Cyclones dropped off. It was Iowa State Cyclones +11.5.
- NewAir Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack is now a pick: Nevada Wolf Pack +5.0 at -112.
- MovedTexas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers is now Texas A&M Aggies +8.5, was Texas A&M Aggies +8.0.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 2.6Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
- → 2.0Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 29%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 71 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 56 | 7.67 |
| FPI | 113 | 9.88 |
| SP+ | 111 | 10.03 |
| The market | 179 | 10.30 |
| Sagarin | 169 | 11.71 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 80-86 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 821258 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.18 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 115 | 1.61 |
| LowVig.ag | 204 | 1.44 |
| DraftKings | 245 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 210 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | 293 | 1.35 |
| BetRivers | 257 | 1.27 |
| BetMGM | 202 | 1.24 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.21 |
| Caesars | 186 | 1.21 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.14 |
| BetUS | 156 | 1.14 |
| MyBookie.ag | 159 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 191 | 1.12 |
| Courtside | 21 | 1.02 |
| Fanatics | 235 | 0.95 |
| betPARX | 36 | 0.61 |
| ReBet | 74 | 0.61 |
| Bally Bet | 37 | 0.59 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 48 | 0.56 |
| theScore Bet | 39 | 0.45 |
| Fliff | 33 | 0.15 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 4 days ago