Nasty Picks of the Week No Nasty Picks today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Updated Sun 7:31 pm · TOM 2h ago · 2 priced · 0 leans · 66 waiting on the ratings

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

ACTIONLouisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss Rebels +7.0

-105as called

Buck's Take

On paper: 9 games look like Nasty Picks. 1 side, 8 totals. Every model we run agrees on them.

Why they're not Nasty Picks yet: It's September. The ratings are mostly last year's teams plus a guess. The picks haven't been tested against real results yet. We need 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides before we trust them. So far: 0 and 0.

Betting anyway? Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0 (the models say 44) and Louisiana Tech at LSU, Under 55.5 (the models say 49).

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameSpreadTotalLean

SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles

CFB tomorrow 6:30 pm

+3.0

should be +2.5

should be 52.7

Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

SMU sideFlorida State side

Market

+3.0

SP+

+1.0

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+7.0

We say

+2.5

Florida State +3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida State to win · +125

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Pass

the Under 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Florida State +3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail

The marketSMU by 3the number to beat

SP+SMU by 12.2 apart

FPISMU by 12 apart

SagarinSMU by 74.2 apart

We settle onSMU by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.0	+109
FPI	+1.0	+111
Sagarin	+7.0	+215
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+135

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +3.0	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+125	+131	-1.1%
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameSpreadTotalLean

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

NFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm

-3.5

should be -3.5

44.5

should be 44.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-4.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Seahawks to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56.

Pass

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.

Also out: Aaron Smith (LB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Terrion Arnold (CB, Seahawks), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart

SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
Sagarin	-4.0	-158
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.5	+100	+101	-0.3%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-180	-153	-3.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 leans showing so far.

GameSpreadTotalLean

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

NFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral

-3.5

should be -3.5

should be 48.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

49ers sideRams side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

49ers to win · +162 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Pass

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

49ers to win · +162 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Alex Johnson (CB, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, 49ers).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart

SagarinRams by 40.6 apart

We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-116
Sagarin	-4.0	-160
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-105	-1.1%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+162	+147	+2.4%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes

CFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm

-53.5

no number

60.5

no number

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-53.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 2 leans showing so far.

GameSpreadTotalLean

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm

-3.5

should be -2.0 · 1.4 pts on Rutgers

was -4.5

54.5

should be 55.2 · 0.7 on the Over

was 53.5

Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side

Market

-3.5

SP+

+3.0

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

+5.0

We say

-2.0

Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Rutgers to win · +144 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Lean

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.

Full detail

The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart

FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart

SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart

We settle onBoston College by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+137
FPI	-6.5	-198
Sagarin	+5.0	+173
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5	-115	-127	+2.5%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+144	+125	+3.4%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks

CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

+6.5

should be +7.0

50.5

should be 51.1 · 0.7 on the Over

Lean Missouri, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Missouri: market says Missouri by 6.5, we say Missouri by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

Missouri sideKansas side

Market

+6.5

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+8.5

We say

+7.0

Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Missouri to win · -235 at TOM

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 23% chance of rain.

A play at -4.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Missouri by 103.4 apart

FPIMissouri by 42.5 apart

SagarinMissouri by 8.52 apart

We settle onMissouri by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+292
FPI	+4.0	+152
Sagarin	+8.5	+250
Market (10 books)	+6.5	+208

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers -6.5	-112	-102	-2.4%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	-235	-209	-2.5%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-30.0

no number

49.5

no number

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-30.0	-2963

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-43.5

no number

was 53.5

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-43.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans

CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

-20.5

no number

57.5

no number

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-20.5	-1112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

46 games9 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0.

GameSpreadTotalLean

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-12.5

should be -11.5 · 1.3 pts on Arkansas

was -11.5

57.5

should be 59 · 1.6 on the Over

was 56.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: both totals models 5.5 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Arkansas sideUtah side

Market

-12.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-11.5

Arkansas +12.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Arkansas to win · +367

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Opened -11.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Arkansas, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +14.0.

Full detail

The marketUtah by 12.5the number to beat

SP+Utah by 6.56.3 apart

FPIUtah by 8.54.3 apart

SagarinUtah by 8.54.4 apart

We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-8.5	-246
Sagarin	-8.5	-243
Market (10 books)	-12.5	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	62.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+367	+346	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+6.0

should be +4.5 · 1.3 pts on Michigan

was +4.5

should be 43.3

was 46.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Michigan +6.0: all 3 ratings 6.4 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side

Market

+6.0

SP+

-0.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

+4.5

Michigan +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Michigan to win · +200 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Lean

the Over 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Michigan to win · +200 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.5.

Full detail

The marketOklahoma by 6the number to beat

SP+Michigan by 0.56.4 apart

FPIOklahoma by 15.2 apart

SagarinMichigan by 1.57.6 apart

We settle onOklahoma by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.5	-118
Market (12 books)	+6.0	+209

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	43.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +6.0	-110	-121	+2.3%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+200	+164	+4.6%
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+22.5

should be +22.0 · 0.5 pts on Oklahoma State

was +19.5

57.5

should be 56.5 · 1.1 on the Under

was 60.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 57.5: both totals models 5.2 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side

Market

+22.5

SP+

+20.0

FPI

+19.5

Sagarin

+25.0

We say

+22.0

Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oklahoma State to win · +998 at TOM

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1.4 off. That's 5.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1.4 off. That's 5.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5. The market has moved 3.0 away from Oklahoma State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat

SP+Oregon by 202.4 apart

FPIOregon by 19.52.8 apart

SagarinOregon by 252.3 apart

We settle onOregon by 2221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.0	+1047
FPI	+19.5	+995
Sagarin	+25.0	+2060
Market (12 books)	+22.5	+1028

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5	-110	+129	-8.7%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+998	+1366	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm

+5.0

should be +4.5

was +6.5

should be 58.3 · 1.2 on the Over

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.0: both totals models 5.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side

Market

+5.0

SP+

+13.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+4.5

North Texas +5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

North Texas to win · +160 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Pass

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 5.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 5.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 98°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).

Full detail

The marketUNLV by 5the number to beat

SP+UNLV by 138 apart

FPIUNLV by 41.2 apart

SagarinUNLV by 32 apart

We settle onUNLV by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+420
FPI	+4.0	+149
Sagarin	+3.0	+138
Market (12 books)	+5.0	+173

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	62.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	North Texas Mean Green +5.0	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	+160	+165	-0.8%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-28.5

should be -28.0

should be 50.4 · 1.6 on the Under

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 52.0: both totals models 7.6 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-26.5

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-33.5

We say

-28.0

Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +2296 at TOM

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat

SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart

FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart

SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart

We settle onNebraska by 2821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.5	-2684
FPI	-24.5	-2042
Sagarin	-33.5	-8590
Market (12 books)	-28.5	-2092

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-110	+141	-10.9%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2296	+3449	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-9.5

should be -9.5

should be 52.9 · 1.7 on the Over

was 50.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 51.0: both totals models 5.6 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-18.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-9.5

Georgia State +9.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22.

Pass

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 5.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 5.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 45% chance of rain.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart

FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart

SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart

We settle onKennesaw State by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-853
FPI	-9.5	-275
Sagarin	-8.5	-245
Market (11 books)	-9.5	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.5	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+272	+278	-0.4%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+13.0

should be +12.0 · 0.8 pts on Georgia Tech

was +13.5

should be 56.1 · 1 on the Over

was 54.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 55.0: both totals models 4.7 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side

Market

+13.0

SP+

+9.0

FPI

+9.5

Sagarin

+9.0

We say

+12.0

Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Georgia Tech to win · +410 at TOM

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.

A play at +15.0 or better.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTennessee by 13the number to beat

SP+Tennessee by 93.8 apart

FPITennessee by 9.53.6 apart

SagarinTennessee by 93.8 apart

We settle onTennessee by 1221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.0	+270
FPI	+9.5	+274
Sagarin	+9.0	+269
Market (12 books)	+13.0	+422

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+410	+382	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+6.0

should be +6.0

was +6.5

should be 59.7 · 0.8 on the Over

was 57.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 59.0: both totals models 3.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side

Market

+6.0

SP+

+5.0

FPI

+8.5

Sagarin

+4.5

We say

+6.0

Florida Atlantic +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30.

Pass

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNavy by 6the number to beat

SP+Navy by 50.9 apart

FPINavy by 8.52.3 apart

SagarinNavy by 4.51.7 apart

We settle onNavy by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.0	+172
FPI	+8.5	+245
Sagarin	+4.5	+158
Market (11 books)	+6.0	+192

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	62.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida Atlantic Owls +6.0	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Florida Atlantic Owls ML	+180	+185	-0.7%
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-33.0

should be -32.5

was -31.5

55.5

should be 53.4 · 2.1 on the Under

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: both totals models 7.1 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side

Market

-33.0

SP+

-31.5

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-32.5

Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110

Covers 39 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +3500

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).

Full detail

The marketLSU by 33the number to beat

SP+LSU by 31.51.4 apart

FPILSU by 321.3 apart

SagarinLSU by 39.56.6 apart

We settle onLSU by 32.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-31.5	-6293
FPI	-32.0	-6391
Sagarin	-39.5	-27247
Market (11 books)	-33.0	-3391

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0	-110	+156	-13.3%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+3500	+7481	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-9.0

should be -10.0 · 0.9 pts on East Carolina

was -8.5

56.5

should be 55.8 · 0.7 on the Under

was 54.5

Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9, we say East Carolina by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side

Market

-9.0

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-11.5

We say

-10.0

East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

East Carolina to win · -335 at TOM

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -7.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketEast Carolina by 9the number to beat

SP+East Carolina by 12.53.6 apart

FPIEast Carolina by 11.52.4 apart

We settle onEast Carolina by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-400
FPI	-11.5	-347
Sagarin	doesn't rate App State
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-284

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -9.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-335	-292	-2.5%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-14.5

should be -15.5 · 1.1 pts on Texas A&M

51.5

should be 52

was 50.5

Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side

Market

-14.5

SP+

-18.0

FPI

-17.5

Sagarin

-18.0

We say

-15.5

Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

Texas A&M to win · -650 at TOM

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

A play at -14.0 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat

SP+Texas A&M by 183.7 apart

FPITexas A&M by 17.52.9 apart

SagarinTexas A&M by 183.7 apart

We settle onTexas A&M by 15.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.0	-809
FPI	-17.5	-732
Sagarin	-18.0	-806
Market (12 books)	-14.5	-479

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -14.5	-107	-122	+3.3%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-650	-578	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-3.0

should be -2.5

was -3.5

49.5

should be 50.5 · 1.1 on the Over

was 50.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side

Market

-3.0

SP+

-1.5

FPI

+2.5

Sagarin

-2.0

We say

-2.5

South Florida +3.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

South Florida to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Pass

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketArmy by 3the number to beat

SP+Army by 1.51.5 apart

FPISouth Florida by 2.55.5 apart

SagarinArmy by 20.8 apart

We settle onArmy by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-117
FPI	+2.5	+130
Sagarin	-2.0	-126
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls +3.0	+105	-105	+2.3%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+150	+133	+3.0%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-18.5

should be -17.5 · 0.8 pts on Washington State

was -16.5

51.5

should be 51.5

Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 18.5, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-15.5

FPI

-11.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-17.5

Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Washington State to win · +805 at TOM

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -16.5, now -18.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +22.0. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKansas State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Kansas State by 15.52.8 apart

FPIKansas State by 11.57.2 apart

SagarinKansas State by 190.4 apart

We settle onKansas State by 17.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-585
FPI	-11.5	-344
Sagarin	-19.0	-895
Market (5 books)	-18.5	-843

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +18.5	-110	+110	-4.9%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+805	+753	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.8 consensus.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-18.0

should be -18.0

was -14.5

should be 50.5

was 51.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side

Market

-18.0

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-14.0

Sagarin

-20.0

We say

-18.0

Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Old Dominion to win · +652 at TOM

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 20% chance of rain.

Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVirginia Tech by 18the number to beat

SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50.3 apart

FPIVirginia Tech by 144 apart

SagarinVirginia Tech by 201.8 apart

We settle onVirginia Tech by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-757
FPI	-14.0	-475
Sagarin	-20.0	-1006
Market (12 books)	-18.0	-693

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +18.0	-110	+119	-6.8%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+652	+779	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+23.5

should be +23.5

49.5

should be 51 · 1.4 on the Over

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side

Market

+23.5

SP+

+23.0

FPI

+20.0

Sagarin

+29.5

We say

+23.5

Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Temple to win · +1248 at TOM

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Full detail

The marketPenn State by 23.5the number to beat

SP+Penn State by 230.4 apart

FPIPenn State by 203.4 apart

SagarinPenn State by 29.56.2 apart

We settle onPenn State by 23.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1604
FPI	+20.0	+1049
Sagarin	+29.5	+4463
Market (12 books)	+23.5	+1155

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +23.5	-110	+142	-11.0%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+1248	+1680	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+4.5

should be +4.0

was +5.5

should be 49.8

was 50.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side

Market

+4.5

SP+

+3.5

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

We say

+4.0

Purdue +4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Purdue to win · +164 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Pass

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Purdue to win · +164 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.

Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).

Full detail

The marketWake Forest by 4.5the number to beat

SP+Wake Forest by 3.51.1 apart

FPIWake Forest by 31.3 apart

Sagarina pick'em4.6 apart

We settle onWake Forest by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.5	+143
FPI	+3.0	+141
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	+4.5	+177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +4.5	-115	-112	-0.6%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+164	+157	+1.1%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 am

-40.0

should be -39.0 · 1.2 pts on Western Kentucky

was -35.5

should be 54.4

was 52.5

Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 40, we say Georgia by 39. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side

Market

-40.0

SP+

-36.0

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-42.0

We say

-39.0

Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Western Kentucky to win · +10000 at TOM

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -35.5, now -40.0. The market has moved 4.3 away from Western Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +40.5.

Full detail

The marketGeorgia by 40the number to beat

SP+Georgia by 364.1 apart

FPIGeorgia by 328.1 apart

SagarinGeorgia by 421.8 apart

We settle onGeorgia by 3930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-36.0	-13246
FPI	-32.0	-6508
Sagarin	-42.0	-41331
Market (10 books)	-40.0	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	55.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0	-105	-116	+2.6%
Moneyline	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML	+10000	+22654	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+9.5

should be +9.5

was +8.5

should be 48.2 · 0.7 on the Under

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side

Market

+9.5

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+12.5

Sagarin

+10.0

We say

+9.5

Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Alabama to win · -420 at TOM

We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAlabama by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Alabama by 100.7 apart

FPIAlabama by 12.53.1 apart

SagarinAlabama by 100.4 apart

We settle onAlabama by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+302
FPI	+12.5	+398
Sagarin	+10.0	+292
Market (12 books)	+9.5	+339

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -9.5	-115	+103	-4.3%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-420	-284	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

should be -7.5

was -7.0

50.5

should be 50.8

was 51.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-7.5

FPI

-8.0

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-7.5

BYU -7.5 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

BYU to win · -300

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

BYU to win · -300

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat

SP+BYU by 7.50.1 apart

FPIBYU by 80.6 apart

SagarinBYU by 8.51.2 apart

We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-226
FPI	-8.0	-240
Sagarin	-8.5	-256
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-260

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -7.5	-110	+116	-6.0%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-300	-227	-5.6%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-3.0

should be -2.0 · 1.2 pts on California

was +2.5

should be 55.9

was 53.5

Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side

Market

-3.0

SP+

+2.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.5

We say

-2.0

California +3.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

California to win · +135

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Pass

the Under 56.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

California to win · +135

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.5. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketSyracuse by 3the number to beat

SP+California by 2.55.7 apart

FPISyracuse by 0.52.5 apart

SagarinCalifornia by 2.55.5 apart

We settle onSyracuse by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+133
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.5	+129
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +3.0	-110	-114	+1.0%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+135	+122	+2.5%
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.7.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-6.0

should be -6.5

was -7.5

53.5

should be 54.9 · 1.4 on the Over

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side

Market

-6.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-4.5

Sagarin

-11.0

We say

-6.5

Illinois -6.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Illinois to win · -235

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62.

Pass

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Illinois -6.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat

SP+Illinois by 70.8 apart

FPIIllinois by 4.51.9 apart

SagarinIllinois by 115 apart

We settle onIllinois by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-211
FPI	-4.5	-159
Sagarin	-11.0	-340
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-204

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	58.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	-235	-199	-3.6%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-17.0

should be -18.0 · 0.7 pts on Michigan State

was -16.5

should be 50.8

was 51.5

Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 17, we say Michigan State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side

Market

-17.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-22.5

We say

-18.0

Michigan State -17.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · -1024

We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -16.5, now -17.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at -17.5. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketMichigan State by 17the number to beat

SP+Michigan State by 20.53.3 apart

FPIMichigan State by 19.52.2 apart

SagarinMichigan State by 22.55.3 apart

We settle onMichigan State by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-1106
FPI	-19.5	-950
Sagarin	-22.5	-1469
Market (12 books)	-17.0	-657

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -17.0	-110	-135	+5.1%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-1024	-778	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.6.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+12.5

should be +13.5 · 0.7 pts on Maryland

was +13.5

53.5

should be 53.3

Lean Maryland, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Maryland: market says Maryland by 12.5, we say Maryland by 13.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Maryland sideUConn side

Market

+12.5

SP+

+15.0

FPI

+10.0

Sagarin

+16.5

We say

+13.5

Maryland -12.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Maryland to win · -525

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Maryland -12.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -11.0.

Full detail

The marketMaryland by 12.5the number to beat

SP+Maryland by 152.3 apart

FPIMaryland by 102.6 apart

SagarinMaryland by 16.53.9 apart

We settle onMaryland by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+15.0	+529
FPI	+10.0	+295
Sagarin	+16.5	+649
Market (12 books)	+12.5	+403

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins -12.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	-525	-436	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+1.0

should be pk · 0.9 pts on Minnesota

was -2.5

55.5

should be 54.9 · 0.6 on the Under

was 53.5

Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-3.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

-3.5

We say

Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Minnesota to win · -103 at TOM

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.

Pass

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 24% chance of rain.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.7 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.0.

Full detail

The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat

SP+Minnesota by 3.54.6 apart

FPIMinnesota by 0.51.5 apart

SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.5 apart

We settle ona pick'em21% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.5	-146
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-145
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+105

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0	-105	-105	-0.1%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-103	+101	-0.9%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

should be -7.0 · 0.7 pts on UCF

was -8.5

should be 56.1 · 1 on the Under

was 56.5

Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-4.0

We say

-7.0

UCF +7.5 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

UCF to win · +250

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.

Lean

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

UCF to win · +250

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.

Full detail

The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat

SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.8 apart

FPIPittsburgh by 43.6 apart

We settle onPittsburgh by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-204
FPI	-4.0	-152
Sagarin	doesn't rate UCF
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-260

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +7.5	-110	-126	+3.4%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+250	+208	+3.9%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+1.0

should be pk · 0.9 pts on Texas State

was +1.5

64.5

should be 67.4 · 2.9 on the Over

Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

We say

Texas State +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texas State to win · -108

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.

Pass

the Over 64.5 · -110

SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Texas State +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Opened +1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Texas State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat

SP+Texas State by 12.2 apart

FPITexas State by 34.2 apart

Sagarina pick'em1.1 apart

We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-113
FPI	-3.0	-141
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+104

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	71.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas State Bobcats +1.0	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	Texas State Bobcats ML	-108	+101	-2.2%
Total	Over 64.5	-110	-133	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-10.5

should be -10.5

was -7.5

should be 56.8 · 0.9 on the Over

was 54.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-13.5

FPI

-7.0

We say

-10.5

UL Monroe +10.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

UL Monroe to win · +330

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 56.0 · -110

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 3.0 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 56.0 · -110

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 3.0 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 40% chance of rain.

Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketUAB by 10.5the number to beat

SP+UAB by 13.53 apart

FPIUAB by 73.6 apart

We settle onUAB by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-451
FPI	-7.0	-211
Sagarin	doesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-346

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+330	+313	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.4.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm

-20.5

should be -21.5 · 0.9 pts on Vanderbilt

was -21.5

53.5

should be 54.9 · 1.4 on the Over

was 55.5

Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20.5, we say Vanderbilt by 21.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side

Market

-20.5

SP+

-25.0

FPI

-15.5

Sagarin

-28.5

We say

-21.5

Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 60 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Vanderbilt to win · -1544 at TOM

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 31% chance of rain.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVanderbilt by 20.5the number to beat

SP+Vanderbilt by 254.4 apart

FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.8 apart

SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.1 apart

We settle onVanderbilt by 21.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-2097
FPI	-15.5	-587
Sagarin	-28.5	-3727
Market (12 books)	-20.5	-864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5	-113	-150	+6.9%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	-1544	-1259	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-8.5

should be -8.0

was -7.5

55.5

should be 56.1 · 0.7 on the Over

was 52.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side

Market

-8.5

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-8.0

Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Memphis to win · +260 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.

Pass

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Boise State).

Full detail

The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat

SP+Boise State by 71.5 apart

FPIBoise State by 62.3 apart

SagarinBoise State by 90.3 apart

We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-211
FPI	-6.0	-194
Sagarin	-9.0	-257
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-276

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	57.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.5	-110	-120	+2.1%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+260	+237	+1.9%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-10.5

should be -7.5 · 2.8 pts on Buffalo

should be 48.5

was 52.5

Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 7.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

-2.0

We say

-7.5

Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 59 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Florida International by 0.510.1 apart

FPIFlorida International by 28.4 apart

We settle onFlorida International by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	-2.0	-125
Sagarin	doesn't rate Florida International
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-334

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	47.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.5	-112	-147	+6.6%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+310	+229	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-2.5

should be -2.0

was -1.5

51.5

should be 50.8 · 0.7 on the Under

was 52.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side

Market

-2.5

SP+

+2.0

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

-2.0

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Jacksonville State to win · +105 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Pass

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat

SP+Jacksonville State by 24.3 apart

FPIOhio by 8.55.8 apart

SagarinOhio by 1.51.1 apart

We settle onOhio by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.0	+121
FPI	-8.5	-245
Sagarin	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-114

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5	-110	+105	-3.5%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+105	+126	-4.5%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-15.0

should be -14.5

was -17.5

57.5

should be 58.5 · 1 on the Over

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side

Market

-15.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-14.5

Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Middle Tennessee to win · +495 at TOM

We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F.

Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMarshall by 15the number to beat

SP+Marshall by 20.55.5 apart

FPIMarshall by 9.55.5 apart

SagarinMarshall by 141.1 apart

We settle onMarshall by 14.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-1106
FPI	-9.5	-278
Sagarin	-14.0	-467
Market (11 books)	-15.0	-509

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	60.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0	-115	+107	-5.1%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+495	+514	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.6 consensus.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+14.0

should be +13.5

was +15.5

should be 52.8 · 0.8 on the Over

was 51.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side

Market

+14.0

SP+

+17.5

FPI

+7.5

We say

+13.5

Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Sam Houston to win · +440 at TOM

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat

SP+Tulsa by 17.53.7 apart

FPITulsa by 7.56.7 apart

We settle onTulsa by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.5	+757
FPI	+7.5	+217
Sagarin	doesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (12 books)	+14.0	+454

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +14.0	-115	+104	-4.4%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+440	+448	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-10.5

should be -11.0

was -11.5

50.5

should be 51

was 51.5

Lean Tulane, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Tulane: market says Tulane by 10.5, we say Tulane by 11. That can change when the new numbers land.

South Alabama sideTulane side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-15.0

Sagarin

-12.0

We say

-11.0

Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Tulane to win · -450 at TOM

We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -11.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tulane, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -7.5.

Full detail

The marketTulane by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Tulane by 12.52 apart

FPITulane by 154.5 apart

SagarinTulane by 121.6 apart

We settle onTulane by 1121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-395
FPI	-15.0	-535
Sagarin	-12.0	-375
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-341

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave -10.5	-110	+102	-2.9%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	-450	-328	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

-11.0

should be -9.5 · 1.7 pts on San Diego State

was -10.5

should be 51.9 · 1.1 on the Under

was 51.5

Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 11, we say UCLA by 9.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side

Market

-11.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-1.0

Sagarin

-17.0

We say

-9.5

San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

San Diego State to win · +350 at TOM

We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUCLA by 11the number to beat

SP+UCLA by 74.1 apart

FPIUCLA by 19.8 apart

SagarinUCLA by 176.1 apart

We settle onUCLA by 9.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-209
FPI	-1.0	-114
Sagarin	-17.0	-698
Market (12 books)	-11.0	-372

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +11.0	-110	-127	+3.6%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+350	+274	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-21.0

should be -22.5 · 1.5 pts on Clemson

was -23.5

should be 55.3 · 0.9 on the Under

Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 21, we say Clemson by 22.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-30.5

We say

-22.5

Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Clemson to win · -1530 at TOM

We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 33% chance of rain.

Opened -23.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail

The marketClemson by 21the number to beat

SP+Clemson by 265.1 apart

FPIClemson by 24.53.3 apart

SagarinClemson by 30.59.7 apart

We settle onClemson by 22.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-2522
FPI	-24.5	-1922
Sagarin	-30.5	-5310
Market (11 books)	-21.0	-881

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Clemson Tigers -21.0	-110	-160	+9.2%
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-1530	-1476	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-13.5

should be -14.5 · 0.8 pts on Iowa

was -14.0

should be 41.5

was 42

Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 13.5, we say Iowa by 14.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side

Market

-13.5

SP+

-17.0

FPI

-13.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-14.5

Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Iowa to win · -700 at TOM

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 21% chance of rain.

A play at -13.0 or better.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketIowa by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Iowa by 173.7 apart

FPIIowa by 13.50.2 apart

SagarinIowa by 195.6 apart

We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-709
FPI	-13.5	-457
Sagarin	-19.0	-910
Market (12 books)	-13.5	-494

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	43.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -13.5	-113	-121	+1.8%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-700	-490	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-1.0

should be pk · 1 pts on Ohio State

48.5

should be 48.9

was 47.5

Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says Texas by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side

Market

-1.0

SP+

+7.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

Ohio State +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Ohio State to win · -106

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.

Pass

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Ohio State +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketTexas by 1the number to beat

SP+Ohio State by 7.58.9 apart

FPITexas by 0.50.7 apart

SagarinOhio State by 23.3 apart

We settle ona pick'em30% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+228
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.0	+126
Market (11 books)	-1.0	-102

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes +1.0	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	-106	+102	-1.9%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+26.5

should be +26.5

was +27.5

should be 50.4 · 0.5 on the Under

was 51.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side

Market

+26.5

SP+

+25.0

FPI

+26.0

Sagarin

+33.5

We say

+26.5

Oregon State +26.5 · -110

Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oregon State to win · +1500

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.

Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).

Full detail

The marketTexas Tech by 26.5the number to beat

SP+Texas Tech by 251.5 apart

FPITexas Tech by 260.7 apart

SagarinTexas Tech by 33.56.8 apart

We settle onTexas Tech by 26.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+25.0	+2195
FPI	+26.0	+2451
Sagarin	+33.5	+8590
Market (12 books)	+26.5	+1444

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers +26.5	-110	+152	-12.7%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	+1500	+2659	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

-30.0

should be -31.5 · 1.3 pts on Auburn

was -29.5

should be 51.2 · 1 on the Under

Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 30, we say Auburn by 31.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side

Market

-30.0

SP+

-34.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-31.5

Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 64 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Auburn to win · -5000 at TOM

We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.

A play at -30.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketAuburn by 30the number to beat

SP+Auburn by 34.54.4 apart

FPIAuburn by 19.510.7 apart

SagarinAuburn by 39.59.4 apart

We settle onAuburn by 31.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-34.5	-10097
FPI	-19.5	-933
Sagarin	-39.5	-25812
Market (11 books)	-30.0	-1832

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers -30.0	-110	-181	+12.0%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	-5000	-5898	priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

+4.0

should be +3.5

was +6.5

47.5

should be 47.9

was 49.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side

Market

+4.0

SP+

-1.0

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+3.5

Air Force +4.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Air Force to win · +154

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36.

Pass

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Air Force to win · +154

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Air Force).

Full detail

The marketNorth Dakota State by 4the number to beat

SP+Air Force by 14.8 apart

FPINorth Dakota State by 30.9 apart

SagarinNorth Dakota State by 30.9 apart

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-109
FPI	+3.0	+138
Sagarin	+3.0	+139
Market (9 books)	+4.0	+171

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons +4.0	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	+154	+148	+0.9%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

-18.5

should be -18.0 · 0.7 pts on Sacramento State

should be 46.3

was 48.5

Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-24.0

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-16.0

We say

-18.0

Sacramento State +18.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +677

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 46.0 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

A play at +22.5 or better.

Full detail

The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Fresno State by 245.6 apart

FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart

SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart

We settle onFresno State by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1887
FPI	-16.0	-601
Sagarin	-16.0	-619
Market (10 books)	-18.5	-692

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	47.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.5	-110	+113	-5.4%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+677	+770	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.6.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm

-30.5

should be -30.0 · 0.6 pts on Louisiana

was -28.5

should be 60.6 · 0.6 on the Over

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side

Market

-30.5

SP+

-30.5

FPI

-28.0

We say

-30.0

Louisiana +30.5 · -110

Covers 39 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +2800

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 60.0 · -110

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -28.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward USC).

Full detail

The marketUSC by 30.5the number to beat

SP+USC by 30.50.2 apart

FPIUSC by 282.8 apart

We settle onUSC by 3040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-30.5	-5134
FPI	-28.0	-3373
Sagarin	doesn't rate Louisiana
Market (10 books)	-30.5	-2122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5	-110	+155	-13.1%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+2800	+4813	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-35.5

no number

51.5

no number

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-35.5	-4883

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

-16.0

no number

was -18.5

56.5

no number

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-16.0	-560

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm

-10.0

no number

50.5

no number

was 51.5

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (10 books)	-10.0	-322

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameSpreadTotalLean

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

-8.0

should be -8.0

40.5

should be 41

Held, QB out

Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

Browns sideJaguars side

Market

-8.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.5

We say

-8.0

Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Held: a quarterback is out and the ratings don't know it.

Held, QB out

Browns to win · +311 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Held, QB out

the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Held, QB out

If you're betting it anyway

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Elijah Chatman (DT, Browns), Travis Bell (DT, Browns).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat

nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart

SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart

We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-197
Sagarin	-9.5	-310
Market (12 books)	-8.0	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +8.0	-113	-112	-0.2%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+311	+252	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

-3.0

should be -3.0

should be 42.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Falcons sideSteelers side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.0

Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Steelers to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.

Pass

the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), Keshawn Banks (DE, Falcons), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons), Anterio Thompson (DT, Falcons).

Full detail

The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat

nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart

SagarinSteelers by 41.1 apart

We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.0	-160
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0	-125	-103	-4.7%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	-180	-143	-5.4%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

+3.5

should be +3.0

47.5

should be 48.1

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Ravens sideColts side

Market

+3.5

nfelo

+0.5

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+3.0

Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Colts to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Pass

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Colts to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens), Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Danny Pinter (C, Ravens).

Full detail

The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart

SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+108
Sagarin	+3.0	+145
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-120	-107	-2.8%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+150	+144	+1.0%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

should be pk

should be 45.7 · 1.5 on the Over

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Bills sideTexans side

Market

nfelo

-0.5

Sagarin

We say

Texans pk · -106 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texans to win · -107 at TOM

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 46.

Pass

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Zane Durant (DT, Bills).

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart

Sagarina pick'em0 apart

We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-106
Sagarin	pk	+100
Market (12 books)	pk	+100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans pk	-106	-101	-1.2%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-107	-101	-1.4%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

+2.5

should be +2.5

47.5

should be 46.7 · 0.7 on the Under

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Bears sidePanthers side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

+1.0

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Panthers to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Pass

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Coby Bryant (S, Bears).

Full detail

The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloBears by 11.7 apart

SagarinBears by 20.4 apart

We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
Sagarin	+2.0	+127
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	+100	+105	-1.1%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+130	+130	+0.1%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

-4.0

should be -4.0

should be 50.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Buccaneers sideBengals side

Market

-4.0

nfelo

-2.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-4.0

Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBengals by 4the number to beat

nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart

SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
Sagarin	-4.0	-163
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-113	-105	-1.9%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+173	+157	+2.4%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

-7.0

should be -7.0

should be 49.3 · 0.9 on the Under

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Saints sideLions side

Market

-7.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-7.5

We say

-7.0

Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Saints to win · +250 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.

Pass

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints), Jaylan Ford (LB, Saints). and 1 more

Full detail

The marketLions by 7the number to beat

nfeloLions by 60.8 apart

SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-206
Sagarin	-7.5	-246
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-272

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +7.0	-116	-107	-1.9%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+250	+226	+2.1%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

should be -1.5 · 1.5 pts on Titans

was -1.0

should be 41.8 · 2.7 on the Over

Lean Titans, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Titans: market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Jets sideTitans side

Market

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.5

We say

-1.5

Titans pk · -122 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Titans to win · -129 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50.

Pass

the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans), Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Tyler Baron (DE, Jets).

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart

SagarinTitans by 4.54.4 apart

We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.5	-166
Market (12 books)	pk	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans pk	-122	-119	-0.7%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-129	-119	-2.1%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-135	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

-10.0

should be -9.5

should be 46.2 · 0.9 on the Under

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Cardinals sideChargers side

Market

-10.0

nfelo

-4.0

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-9.5

Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Cardinals to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Scott Matlock (FB, Chargers), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals). and 1 more

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketChargers by 10the number to beat

nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart

SagarinChargers by 144 apart

We settle onChargers by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
Sagarin	-14.0	-540
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-419

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +10.0	-115	-115	+0.0%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+400	+314	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

-1.0

should be -1.0

should be 45.1 · 0.7 on the Under

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Packers sideVikings side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-4.5

Sagarin

+0.5

We say

-1.0

Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Vikings to win · -122 at TOM

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 49.

Pass

the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Marcus Allen (CB, Vikings), Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Tyler Batty (LB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Collin Oliver (DE, Packers). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketVikings by 1the number to beat

nfeloVikings by 4.53.3 apart

SagarinPackers by 0.51.5 apart

We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-165
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -1.0	-115	-109	-1.4%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-122	-115	-1.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

-3.5

should be -3.5

40.5

should be 40.8

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Dolphins sideRaiders side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

Sagarin

-5.5

We say

-3.5

Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Raiders to win · -185 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Pass

the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders), Chigozie Anusiem (CB, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart

SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart

We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-120
Sagarin	-5.5	-194
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders -3.5	-105	+103	-1.9%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	-185	-150	-4.9%
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

-5.0

should be -5.0

44.5

should be 44.8

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Commanders sideEagles side

Market

-5.0

nfelo

-4.0

Sagarin

-6.5

We say

-5.0

Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Eagles to win · -234 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.

Pass

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway

Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Andre' Sam (S, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Curtis Jacobs (LB, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketEagles by 5the number to beat

nfeloEagles by 41 apart

SagarinEagles by 6.51.3 apart

We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-158
Sagarin	-6.5	-208
Market (12 books)	-5.0	-205

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -5.0	-112	+102	-3.4%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-234	-179	-5.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

NFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pm

+3.0

should be +2.5

should be 48.4

Lean Giants, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Giants: market says Cowboys by 3, we say Cowboys by 2.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Cowboys sideGiants side

Market

+3.0

nfelo

-1.0

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

Giants +3.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Giants to win · +132 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Pass

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

A play at +4.5 or better.

Also out: Korie Black (CB, Giants), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys), Marist Liufau (LB, Cowboys), Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (DT, Cowboys).

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketCowboys by 3the number to beat

nfeloGiants by 14 apart

SagarinCowboys by 20.8 apart

We settle onCowboys by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-112
Sagarin	+2.0	+129
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +3.0	-113	-104	-2.1%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+132	+133	-0.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Record6 bets · 3-3 · -0.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How it worksand how the model is doing

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

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How Sunday 6 September went

Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.

What we said	Right-wrong	Rate
Leaned, no bet	1-0	100%

Game by game

RightWashington State CougarsWashington State Cougars at Washington Huskieswon by 14Leaned, no bet

How it's going

3-3Record

-0.2Units

-3.5%ROI

8Open

It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

66 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 2 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 66 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 68 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 1 was worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 7:21 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 2.9Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
→ 2.5Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinalstoward Stony Brook Seawolvesagainst the public
→ 1.8North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falconstoward Air Force Falconsagainst the public
→ 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
→ 1.3Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illinitoward Duke Blue Devilsagainst the public
→ 1.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wavetoward South Alabama Jaguarsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 1 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 23215 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.32 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	68	0.60
BetOnline.ag	68	0.54
LowVig.ag	65	0.48
FanDuel	62	0.45
BetMGM	63	0.39
BetRivers	64	0.30
TOM	52	0.30
MyBookie.ag	58	0.28
BetUS	64	0.21
Bovada	62	0.19
Caesars	65	0.15
Pinnacle	61	0.12
Fanatics	67	0.10

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
SP+ updated today
Sagarin updated today
nfelo updated today

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 6

No plays today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.