Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsBACK THU

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

BACK THUBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Back Thu · Updated Tue 6:06 pm · 5 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1 ptOhio -3-115 at DraftKings+4.0%Sat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 9:14am at -3 -110. Now Ohio -3 -115. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt-4 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -5Cincinnati at Arizona▼Cincinnati +7-104 at Caesars+3.6%Sat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +7 -102. Now Cincinnati +7 -104. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+7 open Sunnow +7Nasty Number +6Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3.5 -107 at KalshiNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOM, half a point worse, 3 cents better than the +3.5 -107 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Temple at South FloridaMoved our way · 3 ptsSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -109 at TOM. The number is a point worse but the price is 1 cent better, from -110 to -109, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better.Texas State at San Diego State▲Moved our way · 1 ptSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Mon 10:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. San Diego State +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM, 4 cents worse than the +4.5 -106 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck

Buck's Take

Five Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Ohio -3, Cincinnati +7, Pittsburgh +3.5 -107 at Kalshi, San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel and South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.

UCF at Houston, UCF +12.5. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.

Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +4.5. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 4. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.5.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Massachusetts -6.5 (Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts) at 5.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5, down 2 since the open.

Since the last build, Cincinnati at Arizona slipped to A Little Nasty; Colts at Commanders climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts slipped to A Little Nasty.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Ohio at Kent State, Ohio -3. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

5 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Western Kentucky at New Mexico State▲Moved our way · 2 ptsWestern Kentucky +3-118 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberThu 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +3.5 for -118 at TOM · half a point awayWhere, best first (Western Kentucky): TOM +3 at -118 (1.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.0%).
4 more later this week
Baylor at Arizona StateBaylor +4.5should be Baylor +2 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGMNeeds a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Baylor): BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (8.4%) · DraftKings +4 at -108 (7.8%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (7.5%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (7.3%).
Colts at Commanders▲Commanders +3.5-105 at Caesars · 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 8:30am Buck's case ›
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Where, best first (Commanders): Caesars or TOM +3.5 at -105 (2.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -107 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (1.6%).
Purdue at Illinois▲Illinois -10-105 at BetMGM · 1.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at -9.5 for -105 at BetMGM · half a point awayWhere, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -10 at -105 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.2%).
UCF at HoustonMoved our way · 1.5 ptsUCF +12.5should be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanaticsNeeds a better numberSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -106 at FanDuel · 1.5 points awayWhere, best first (UCF): FanDuel +12.5 at -106 (1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.3%).

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5. The total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

13 more later this week
Louisville at NC StateMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 58.5should be 60.6 · getting 2.1 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (3.0%) · Caesars 58.5 at -112 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.9%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Navy at Air ForceMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 46should be 48.4 · getting 2.5 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (4.4%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.7%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -105 (3.5%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.1%).
Arkansas at Texas A&MMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 50should be 51.7 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel or Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.1%).Points or price: 50.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 51.5 (the games that land on 51); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in). The price wins.
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)Moved our way · 1.5 ptsMiami (OH) -13should be Miami (OH) -14 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13 at -108 (1.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 51¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Fresno State at Washington StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsFresno State +2.5should be Fresno State +1 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSat 8:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Fresno State): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.3%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (-0.2%).
Army at Louisiana TechMoved our way · 1 ptOver 46should be 47.6 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts▼Massachusetts -6.5should be Massachusetts -7.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -6.5 at -105 (5.5%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -108 (4.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -6.5 at -110 (4.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (3.7%).
Michigan State at Wisconsin▲Michigan State +10should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsSat 11:30am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Michigan State): Caesars +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +10 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.8%).Points or price: +10.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10 (the games that land on 10); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.
Falcons at SaintsUnder 48.5should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -120 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Syracuse at UConn▲UConn +6should be UConn +5.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (UConn): TOM +6 at +101 (1.1%) · Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (0.8%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 51¢ (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +6.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +6 (the games that land on 6); -105 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than +101. The price wins by a hair.
Chiefs at RaidersUnder 48should be 47 · getting 1 ptSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (0.2%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Jaguars at BengalsUnder 52should be 50.8 · getting 1.2 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -115 (0.3%) · BetMGM 51 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 51.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.7%).
Arkansas State at LouisianaOver 48should be 48.8 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Moved closer since the 9:45am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:45am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • Western Kentucky at New Mexico State Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +2.0 to +3.0; the price from -109 to -118.
  • Purdue at Illinois Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -110 to -105.
  • Colts at Commanders Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from -3.0 to +3.5; the price from -120 to -105; the Nasty Number moved 2.4.
  • Syracuse at UConn Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +6.5 to +6.0; the price from -110 to +101.
  • Michigan State at Wisconsin Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -105 to -102.
  • Jaguars at Bengals Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -101 to -105; the Nasty Number moved 0.8.
  • Chiefs at Raiders Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +4.5 to -4.5; the price from -110 to -103.
  • Falcons at Saints Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.

And 8 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 7:17am✓SagarinSun 7:17am✓MasseyTue 9:13am✓All 4 in the Sauce.
NFL ratingsnfeloTue 9:13am✓FPITue 9:13am✓SagarinTue 6:05pm✓MasseyTue 9:13am✓All 4 in the Sauce.
Track record: 28 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Thu Oct 1

3 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Western Kentucky at New Mexico State, Western Kentucky +3.0.
GameThe call
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico State
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pm
Western Kentucky +3Moved our way · 2 pts
should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +2
▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Western Kentucky +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico State by 3TOM, -102
The Four
SP+
New Mexico State by 12.2 pts our side
FPI
Western Kentucky by 0.53.5 pts our side
Sagarin
a pick'em3.2 pts our side
Massey
Western Kentucky by 4.57.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
New Mexico State by 1.51.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Western Kentucky. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico State by 1.5opened New Mexico State by 1now New Mexico State by 3SunTue

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Kentucky's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.6on the market
Massey
561.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
56.80.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 53.5now 57.5SunTue

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-3 -10257.5 -110-138+118
Pinnacle-2.5 -11357.5 -109-136+116
All 21 books
New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-3 -10257.5 -110-138+118
Bally Bet-2 -11056.5 -113-132+110
BetAnything-2.5 -11057 -110-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -11257.5 -108-140+115
BetOnline.ag-3 -10257.5 -110-138+118
betPARX-2 -11056.5 -113-132+110
BetRivers-2 -11257 -109-134+108
BetUS-2.5 -11057 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11557.5 -110-135+115
Caesars-2.5 -10857.5 -107-134+114
Courtside-2.5 -11257.5 -108-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11257.5 -110-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 52¢ -117 all-in57¢ -144 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11557.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11057.5 -105-130+108
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11556.5 -110-130+110
LowVig.ag-3 +10257.5 -108-138+118
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11057 -110-136+111
Pinnacle-2.5 -11357.5 -109-136+116
ReBet-2.5 -11457.5 -111-139+109
theScore Bet-2.5 -11056.5 -115-130+110

Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +3.0 · -118 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Western Kentucky): TOM +3 at -118 (1.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
Western Kentucky to win · +118 at TOM
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Western Kentucky to win): TOM +118 (1.2%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars +114 (0.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +108 (46¢ on the app) (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 57.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars 57.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-2.2%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -115 (-2.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky +3.0 · -118 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from -2.0 to -3.0.

A play at +3.5 or better.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-103
FPI+0.5-100
SagarinPK+100
Massey+4.5+182
Market (19 books)-3.0-132
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.556.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +3.0-118-126+1.6%
MoneylineWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers ML+118+112+1.2%
TotalUnder 57.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns
NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm
Browns +2.5
should be Browns +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Steelers by 2.5TOM, -102
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 30.5 pts against us
FPI
Steelers by 11.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Steelers by 20.6 pts our side
Massey
Steelers by 11.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Steelers by 20.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Browns. nfelo at Steelers by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 2opened Steelers by 2.5now Steelers by 2.5SunMonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM
The Four
Massey
38.6on the market
FPI
371.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
37.80.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 37.8opened 38now 38.5SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -10238.5 -110+121-146
Kalshi+2.5 -103 49¢38.5 -103 49¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10238 -115+125-141
All 26 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -10238.5 -110+121-146
Kalshi+2.5 -103 49¢38.5 -103 49¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10538 -110+123-148
BetAnything+2.5 -11038.5 -110+120-140
BetMGM+2.5 -10238 -110+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10238.5 -110+126-146
betPARX+2.5 -10538 -110+123-148
BetRivers+2.5 -10538 -110+123-148
BetUS+2 +10038.5 -110+126-146
Bovada+2.5 -10538.5 -110+125-145
Caesars+2.5 -10638.5 -110+123-145
Courtside+2.5 +10038.5 -103+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 +10038.5 -105+124-148
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in39.5 47¢ +104 all-in43¢ +123 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10538.5 -110+120-145
FanDuel+2.5 -10838.5 -102+120-142
Fliff+2.5 -10538.5 -110+125-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10538 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -10538 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -10538 -110+125-145
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10338.5 -107+126-146
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -10538 -110+114-140
Pinnacle+2.5 -10238 -115+125-141
Polymarket+2.5 +10438.5+133-138
ReBet+2.5 -10538.5 -110+123-144
theScore Bet+3 -12038.5 -105+130-150

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +2.5 · -102 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +2.5 at +100 (1.0%) · BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -102 (0.5%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 49¢ (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.1%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +121 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Browns to win): Kalshi or DraftKings +124 (0.8%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +123 (43¢ on the app) (0.6%) · TOM +121 (0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +120 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 38.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 37. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 38.5 at -109 (-0.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 38.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · BetMGM 38 at -108 (-2.2%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 38.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · FanDuel 38.5 at -120 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 38.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers), DeShon Elliott (S, Steelers).

TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.0+147
FPI+1.0+104
Sagarin+2.0+117
Massey+1.0+103
Market (22 books)+2.5+126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.537.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +2.5-102-104+0.5%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+121+120+0.2%
TotalUnder 38.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at Tulsa
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pm
Tulsa -1
should be Tulsa -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Tulsa →
Market
Tulsa by 1TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Tulsa by 4.5
FPI
North Texas by 3
Sagarin
Tulsa by 1.5
Massey
North Texas by 9.5
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 0.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 0.5opened Tulsa by 2.5now Tulsa by 1SunTue

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.61.1 pts over the market
Massey
613.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 57.5now 57.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1 -10857.5 -110-114-106
Kalshi-1.557.5 -107 50¢-116 52¢-107 50¢
Pinnacle-1 -11058 -101-117+100
All 22 books
Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1 -10857.5 -110-114-106
Kalshi-1.557.5 -107 50¢-116 52¢-107 50¢
Bally Bet-1 -11057.5 -109-118-104
BetAnything-1 -11057.5 -110-115-105
BetMGM-1 -10857.5 -108-115-105
BetOnline.ag-1 -10857.5 -110-114-106
betPARX-1 -11057.5 -109-118-104
BetRivers-1 -11257.5 -110-118-105
BetUS-1 -11057.5 -110-115-105
Bovada-1 -11057.5 -110-120+100
Caesars-1 -10857.5 -115-118+100
Courtside-1.5 +10057.5 -110-110-106
DraftKings-1.5 +10057.5 -112-112-108
DraftKings Predictions-1.5 49¢ -104 all-in57.5 50¢ -108 all-in53¢ -122 all-in51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics-1 -11057.5 -110-115-105
FanDuel-1.5 -11057.5 -110-118-102
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -10557.5 -110-120-105
LowVig.ag-1 -10457.5 -108-114-106
MyBookie.ag-1 -11057.5 -110-116-105
Pinnacle-1 -11058 -101-117+100
ReBet-1.5 -10957.5 -114-119-107
theScore Bet-1.5 -11057.5 -110-120+100

Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (North Texas): FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +1 at -110 (-1.5%) · TOM +1 at -112 (-2.0%) · Caesars +1 at -113 (-2.2%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -120 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
North Texas to win · +100 at Caesars
We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (North Texas to win): Caesars +100 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -102 (-1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -105 (-1.7%) · TOM -106 (-2.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -107 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi or BetMGM 57.5 at -107 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 57.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · Caesars 57.5 at -115 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -1.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 0.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.5-179
FPI+3.0+132
Sagarin-1.5-109
Massey+9.5+311
Market (19 books)-1.0-109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.558.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +1.5-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+100+102-0.5%
TotalOver 57.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Fri Oct 2

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Pittsburgh +3.5 -107 at Kalshi
Bet it · now Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOM
Nasty Pick · called at +3.5 -107Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Pittsburgh +3.5 -107 at Kalshi. Bet it. Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOM, half a point worse, 3 cents better than the +3.5 -107 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →
Market
Virginia Tech by 3TOM, -116
The Four
SP+
a pick'em3.2 pts our side
FPI
Pittsburgh by 2.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 0.52.4 pts our side
Massey
Pittsburgh by 35.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 2.50.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 2.5opened Virginia Tech by 4now Virginia Tech by 3SunTue

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.74.8 pts under the market
Massey
51.92.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.83.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 52.5now 54.5SunTue

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11654.5 -115-163+133
Kalshi-3.555.5 -103 49¢-167 61¢—
Pinnacle-3.5 +10154.5 -117-170+144
All 22 books
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11654.5 -115-163+133
Kalshi-3.555.5 -103 49¢-167 61¢—
Bally Bet-3.5 -10455 -107-167+138
BetAnything-3 -11555 -110-165+145
BetMGM-3 -11854.5 -118-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3 -11654.5 -115-163+143
betPARX-3.5 -10455 -107-167+138
BetRivers-3.5 -10654.5 -115-175+138
BetUS-3 -11555 -110-165+142
Bovada-3.5 +10055 -110-170+145
Caesars-3.5 -10554.5 -117-164+139
Courtside-3.5 -10255.5 -105-159+139
DraftKings-3.5 -10254.5 -118-162+136
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in54.5 53¢ -122 all-in62¢ -178 all-in41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics-3.5 -10555 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 -10654.5 -118-172+142
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10554.5 -115-165+140
LowVig.ag-3 -11254.5 -114-163+143
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11054.5 -110-176+142
Pinnacle-3.5 +10154.5 -117-170+144
ReBet-3.5 -10954.5 -119-180+139
theScore Bet-3.5 -10555.5 +100-170+145

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh +3.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (3.8%) · Fanatics or Caesars +3.5 at -115 (3.6%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (3.4%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (3.0%) · TOM +3 at -104 (2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Pittsburgh to win · +142 at FanDuel
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Pittsburgh loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): FanDuel +142 (4.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars +140 (3.7%) · DraftKings +136 (3.0%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions +133 (41¢ on the app) (2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 54.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -102 (1.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars 54.5 at -104 (0.7%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.6%) · TOM 54.5 at -105 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5, only $11 available; Under 55.5, only $38 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+PK+100
FPI+2.5+120
Sagarin-0.5-101
Massey+3.0+133
Market (19 books)-3.0-156
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.550.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML+142+120+4.0%
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers +3.0-104-117+2.9%
TotalUnder 54.5-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at Delaware
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Delaware +7
should be Delaware +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Delaware →
Market
Liberty by 7TOM, +100
The Four
SP+
Liberty by 114 pts against us
FPI
Liberty by 4.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Liberty by 15.9 pts our side
Massey
Liberty by 5.51.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Liberty by 6.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Delaware. SP+ at Liberty by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Liberty by 6.5opened Liberty by 7now Liberty by 7SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.92.9 pts over the market
Massey
52.62.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.82.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.8opened 49now 50SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 +10050 -108+240-300
Kalshi+7.550.5 -107 50¢+229 29¢—
Pinnacle+7 -10550 -110+228-286
All 21 books
Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 +10050 -108+240-300
Kalshi+7.550.5 -107 50¢+229 29¢—
Bally Bet+7 -10850 -108+225-286
BetAnything+7 -11050 -110+240-300
BetMGM+7 -10550.5 -105+230-285
BetOnline.ag+7 +10050 -108+245-300
betPARX+7 -10850 -108+225-286
BetRivers+7 -10949.5 -114+225-286
BetUS+7 -10550 -110+250-300
Bovada+7 -10550 -110+230-280
Caesars+7 -11049.5 -117+225-280
Courtside+7 -10649.5 -118+225-263
DraftKings+7 -10850.5 -105+220-270
DraftKings Predictions+7.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 48¢ -100 all-in30¢ +212 all-in73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics+7 -10550 -110+230-285
FanDuel+7.5 -12249.5 -114+225-280
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -12049.5 -110+225-275
LowVig.ag+7 +10450 -106+245-300
MyBookie.ag+7 -11050 -110+234-300
Pinnacle+7 -10550 -110+228-286
ReBet+7.5 -12549.5 -119+228-310

Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +7.0 · +100 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Delaware): TOM +7 at +100 (2.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +7 at -105 (1.3%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (0.6%) · Caesars +7 at -110 (0.1%).
Not Nasty
Delaware to win · +240 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Delaware to win): TOM +240 (1.8%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi +230 (0.9%) · FanDuel or Caesars +225 (0.5%) · DraftKings +220 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -108 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars 49.5 at -117 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +7.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens +7.5, only $19 available; Under 50.5, only $377 available; Liberty Flames ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLiberty by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++11.0+380
FPI+4.5+180
Sagarin+1.0+106
Massey+5.5+193
Market (18 books)+7.0+251
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.052.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +7.0+100-111+2.5%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+240+220+1.8%
TotalOver 50.0-108-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at Northwestern
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pm
Penn State -2.5
should be Penn State -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Penn State by 2.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Penn State by 7.5
FPI
Penn State by 2
Sagarin
Northwestern by 0.5
Nasty Number
Penn State by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 2.5opened Penn State by 2.5now Penn State by 2.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.9on the market
Nasty Number
44.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 45.5now 45SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10545 -115+115-135
Pinnacle+3 -11445.5 -107+123-144
All 21 books
Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10545 -115+115-135
Bally Bet+2.5 -10845.5 -110+116-141
BetAnything+3 -11545.5 -110+125-145
BetMGM+3 -11545.5 -108+115-140
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10545 -115+115-135
betPARX+2.5 -10845.5 -110+116-141
BetRivers+2.5 -10945.5 -112+115-143
BetUS+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-135
Bovada+3 -11545.5 -110+125-145
Caesars+2.5 -10345.5 -112+118-139
Courtside+2.5 +10045.5 -106+122-139
DraftKings+2.5 +10045.5 -108+120-142
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in45.5 51¢ -113 all-in45¢ +113 all-in58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics+3 -11545.5 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -10545.5 -108+116-140
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11045.5 -110+115-140
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10145 -114+115-135
MyBookie.ag+3 -11045.5 -110+121-149
Pinnacle+3 -11445.5 -107+123-144
ReBet+2.5 -10945.5 -114+115-146
theScore Bet+2.5 +10045.5 -105+115-135

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): FanDuel or TOM -2.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · Caesars -2.5 at -117 (-2.5%) · BetMGM -3 at -102 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -120 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Penn State to win · -135 at TOM
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Penn State to win): TOM -135 (-1.3%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -139 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -142 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 45.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-2.2%) · TOM 45 at -115 (-2.5%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 58°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +120 here against +132 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+269
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5+100
Masseyrates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)+2.5+120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.044.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPenn State Nittany Lions -2.5-115-106-2.1%
MoneylinePenn State Nittany Lions ML-135-128-1.3%
TotalOver 45.0-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus; moneyline +120 here against +132 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Oct 3

51 gamesBest: Ohio -3.0, Nastiest
GameThe call
Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Ohio -3Moved our way · 1 pt
should be Ohio -5 · getting 2 pts · -115 at DraftKings · was -3.5
NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nastiest. Take Ohio -3.0 at -115 at DraftKings. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Ohio by 3TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Ohio by 9.56.7 pts our side
FPI
Ohio by 9.56.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Ohio by 41 pts our side
Massey
Ohio by 129 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio by 52 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Ohio, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio by 5opened Ohio by 4now Ohio by 3SunTue

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
55.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 50.5now 50.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3 -10550.5 -115+133-158
Pinnacle+3 -10250.5 -114+136-160
All 20 books
Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3 -10550.5 -115+133-158
Bally Bet+3 -10950.5 -108+125-157
BetAnything+3 -11050.5 -110+135-155
BetMGM+3 -10250.5 -110+138-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -10550.5 -115+138-158
betPARX+3 -10950.5 -108+125-157
BetRivers+3 -11050.5 -109+125-157
BetUS+3 -10550.5 -115+138-160
Bovada+3 -10551 -105+135-160
Courtside+3 -10350.5 -110+143-163
DraftKings+3 -10550.5 -112+140-166
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 49¢ -104 all-in42¢ +127 all-in61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics+3 -10550.5 -115+135-160
FanDuel+3.5 -12050.5 -114+134-162
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -12050.5 -110+125-155
LowVig.ag+3 -10150.5 -114+138-158
MyBookie.ag+3 -11050.5 -110+132-162
Pinnacle+3 -10250.5 -114+136-160
ReBet+3.5 -13350.5 -116+129-166
theScore Bet+2.5 +10550.5 -115+130-150

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -3.0 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Ohio): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -3 at -115 (4.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (2.5%).
The call
Ohio to win · -158 at TOM
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 61. That's value. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Ohio to win): TOM -158 (3.7%) · Fanatics -160 (3.4%) · FanDuel -162 (3.1%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -165 (2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 50.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Full detail
We settle onOhio by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+323
FPI+9.5+312
Sagarin+4.0+170
Massey+12.0+407
Market (18 books)+3.0+139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio Bobcats -3.0-115-135+4.0%
MoneylineOhio Bobcats ML-158-186+3.7%
TotalOver 50.5-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at Arizona
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pm
Cincinnati +7
should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt · -104 at Caesars · was +8.5
▼Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Cincinnati +7.0 at -104 at Caesars. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.

The spread

← more Cincinnati than the bookmore Arizona →
Market
Arizona by 7
The Four
SP+
Arizona by 3.53.4 pts our side
FPI
Arizona by 0.56.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona by 5.51.3 pts our side
Massey
Arizona by 42.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona by 61 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Cincinnati, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 6opened Arizona by 7now Arizona by 7SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55
The Four
SP+ pace
60.35.2 pts over the market
Massey
54.30.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.32.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.3opened 55now 55SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.555.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+217 30¢
Pinnacle-7 -11655 -118-295+234
All 21 books
Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.555.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+217 30¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -10554.5 -110-286+225
BetAnything-7 -11055.5 -110-285+235
BetMGM-7 -11055.5 -108-285+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11555.5 -110-290+237
betPARX-7.5 -10554.5 -110-286+225
BetRivers-7 -11854.5 -112-295+225
BetUS-7 -11555.5 -110-290+240
Bovada-7 -12055.5 -110-290+240
Caesars-7 -11755.5 -107-290+235
Courtside-7 -11355.5 -106-283+241
DraftKings-7 -11555.5 -108-290+235
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 49¢ -104 all-in54.5 55¢ -132 all-in73¢ -300 all-in30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11555.5 -110-285+230
FanDuel-7.5 +10855.5 -110-260+210
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10554.5 -110-275+225
LowVig.ag-7 -11155.5 -108-290+237
MyBookie.ag-7 -11055.5 -110-290+228
Pinnacle-7 -11655 -118-295+234
ReBet-7.5 -10955.5 -111-310+216
theScore Bet-6.5 -13055.5 -110-280+230

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -104 at Caesars
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Cincinnati): Caesars +7 at -104 (3.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +7 at -105 (3.3%) · BetMGM +7 at -108 (2.6%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Cincinnati to win · +233 at DraftKings
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): DraftKings or Caesars +235 (3.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +230 (2.6%) · Kalshi 30¢ (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (0.9%) · FanDuel +210 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 55.5 at -107 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Cincinnati.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $293 available; Under 55.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-164
FPI-0.5-102
Sagarin-5.5-197
Massey-4.0-173
Market (19 books)-7.0-266
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.057.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +7.0-104-120+3.6%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+233+204+2.9%
TotalOver 55.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.

Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelMoved our way · 1 pt
Bet it · now San Diego State +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM
▲Nasty Pick · called at +4.5 -106Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM, 4 cents worse than the +4.5 -106 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Texas State by 4, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 3.

The spread

← more Texas State than the bookmore San Diego State →
Market
Texas State by 4
The Four
SP+
Texas State by 4on the market
FPI
Texas State by 1.52.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Texas State by 0.53.6 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em3.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas State by 30.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 3opened Texas State by 3.5now Texas State by 4.5SunTue

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59
The Four
SP+ pace
63.94.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.23.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
59.60.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 59now 59SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San Diego State +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (San Diego State): BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (2.5%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (1.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (1.4%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.1%).
The call
San Diego State to win · +158 at Caesars
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +160 (2.1%) · Caesars +158 (1.8%) · Fanatics +155 (1.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 59 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.1%) · Caesars 59.5 at -109 (-2.8%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -110 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · San Diego State, now Damn Near Nasty.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+166
FPI+1.5+110
Sagarin+0.5-100
MasseyPK+100
Market (19 books)+4.0+175
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.059.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +4.5-110-122+2.5%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+158+147+1.8%
TotalOver 59.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South Florida
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
South Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsMoved our way · 3 pts
Don't chase · now South Florida -6.5 · -109 at TOM
Nasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -109 at TOM. The number is a point worse but the price is 1 cent better, from -110 to -109, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better. Market says South Florida by 6.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore South Florida →
Market
South Florida by 6.5TOM, -109
The Four
SP+
South Florida by 125.7 pts our side
FPI
South Florida by 60.6 pts against us
Sagarin
South Florida by 7.51.2 pts our side
Massey
South Florida by 11.54.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Florida by 70.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean South Florida. FPI at South Florida by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 7opened South Florida by 5.5now South Florida by 6.5SunTue

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
60.812.8 pts over the market
Massey
56.88.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.061% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
57.89.8 pts over the market
Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.8opened 51now 48SunTue

The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6.5 -10948 -110-235+185
Kalshi—47.5 -136 56¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-6.5 -10549 -107-239+195
All 22 books
South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6.5 -10948 -110-235+185
Kalshi—47.5 -136 56¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
Bally Bet-6 -11349.5 -109-235+185
BetAnything-6.5 -11048 -110-235+195
BetMGM-6.5 -11048.5 -108-235+195
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -10948 -110-235+195
betPARX-6 -11349.5 -109-235+185
BetRivers-6 -11349.5 -110-235+185
BetUS-6.5 -11048.5 -110-235+200
Bovada-6.5 -10549 -110-235+195
Caesars-6.5 -11048.5 -108-240+196
Courtside-6.5 -10848.5 -108-232+199
DraftKings-6.5 -10848.5 -110-238+195
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 51¢ -113 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in70¢ -257 all-in33¢ +186 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11049 -110-235+190
FanDuel-6.5 -11848.5 -110-250+202
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -10549.5 -110-230+185
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10548 -108-235+195
MyBookie.ag-6 -11049 -110-248+196
Pinnacle-6.5 -10549 -107-239+195
ReBet-6.5 -11149.5 -111-260+187
theScore Bet-6.5 -12048.5 -110-240+200

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -6.5 · -109 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (South Florida): DraftKings -6.5 at -108 (1.8%) · TOM -6.5 at -109 (1.6%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.8%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -118 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
South Florida to win · -235 at Fanatics
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (South Florida to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -235 (1.2%) · DraftKings, Kalshi or Caesars -238 (0.9%) · FanDuel -250 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 70¢ on the app (-257 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 9.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -110 (4.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (3.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (3.3%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 61% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · South Florida, now A Little Nasty · Over. The line went from -6.0 to -6.5.

Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $104 available; Temple Owls +6.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-411
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-7.5-280
Massey-11.5-393
Market (19 books)-6.5-225
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.057.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -6.5-109-116+1.6%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML-235-249+1.2%
TotalOver 48.0-110-133shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.6.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.9 consensus.

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
Baylor +4.5
should be Baylor +2 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGM · was +4.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +4.5: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 8.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Baylor than the bookmore Arizona State →
Market
Arizona State by 4
The Four
SP+
Baylor by 36.7 pts our side
FPI
Baylor by 2.56.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona State by 51 pts against us
Massey
Arizona State by 30.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona State by 21.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Baylor. Sagarin at Arizona State by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona State by 2opened Arizona State by 4now Arizona State by 4.5SunTue

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Baylor's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
45.23.9 pts under the market
Massey
52.83.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49opened 51now 49.5SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Baylor +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Baylor): BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (8.4%) · DraftKings +4 at -108 (7.8%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (7.5%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (7.3%).
A Little Nasty
Baylor to win · +158
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Baylor loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Baylor to win): DraftKings +160 (8.0%) · Fanatics or Caesars +155 (7.3%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (6.5%) · FanDuel +146 (5.8%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · Caesars 49 at -109 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.7%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-2.8%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-3.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.5 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail
We settle onArizona State by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+136
FPI+2.5+121
Sagarin-5.0-182
Massey-3.0-149
Market (19 books)-4.0-173
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaylor Bears +4.5-110-155+8.4%
MoneylineBaylor Bears ML+158+115+7.8%
TotalUnder 49.0-110+102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.3.

Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at Illinois
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
Illinois -10
should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was -9.5
▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Illinois -10.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore Illinois →
Market
Illinois by 10
The Four
SP+
Illinois by 177.1 pts our side
FPI
Illinois by 122.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Illinois by 12.52.7 pts our side
Massey
Illinois by 13.53.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Illinois by 110.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Illinois. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois by 11opened Illinois by 9.5now Illinois by 10SunTue

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61.5
The Four
SP+ pace
70.79.3 pts over the market
Massey
61.3on the market
Nasty Number
664.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 66opened 60.5now 61.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi-10.561.5-404 79¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-10 -11161.5 -108-414+311
All 20 books
Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi-10.561.5-404 79¢+313 23¢
Bally Bet-10 -11461.5 -108-455+335
BetAnything-10 -11062 -110-390+310
BetMGM-10 -10561.5 -108-375+300
BetOnline.ag-10 -10561 -115-380+303
betPARX-10 -11461.5 -108-455+335
BetRivers-10 -11561.5 -109-455+335
BetUS-10 -11061 -110-380+305
Bovada-10 -11561.5 -110-415+310
Courtside-10 -10861.5 -106-364+303
DraftKings-10 -11061.5 -108-375+295
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 50¢ -108 all-in60.5 54¢ -127 all-in79¢ -426 all-in24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics-10 -11061.5 -110-400+310
FanDuel-10.5 -10261.5 -110-375+290
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -10561.5 -110-450+325
LowVig.ag-10 -10161 -114-380+303
MyBookie.ag-10 -11061.5 -110-380+285
Pinnacle-10 -11161.5 -108-414+311
ReBet-10.5 -10961.5 -114-391+275
theScore Bet-9.5 -12061.5 -110-380+290

Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois -10.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -10 at -105 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.2%).
Not Nasty
Illinois to win · -380
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (Illinois to win): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM -375 (0.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -400 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 79¢ on the app (-426 all-in) (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 61.5 · -110
SP+ projects 71 and Massey projects 61. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or BetMGM 61.5 at -108 (1.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 61.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Illinois -10.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -9.5 or better. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5, only $4 available; Over 61.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-657
FPI-12.0-409
Sagarin-12.5-423
Massey-13.5-437
Market (18 books)-10.0-367
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.566.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -10.0-105-112+1.5%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-380-378-0.1%
TotalOver 61.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.0.

UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at Houston
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UCF +12.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.5: all 4 ratings 6.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Houston →
Market
Houston by 12.5
The Four
SP+
Houston by 5.56.8 pts our side
FPI
Houston by 75.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Houston by 84.6 pts our side
Massey
Houston by 4.58 pts our side
Nasty Number
Houston by 10.51.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Houston by 10.5opened Houston by 11now Houston by 12.5SunTue

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
52.71.5 pts over the market
Massey
520.7 pts over the market
Weather
-1.050% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.3on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.3opened 51now 51SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢51.5 -112 51¢-458 81¢+351 21¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -10551 -113-483+351
All 21 books
Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢51.5 -112 51¢-458 81¢+351 21¢
Bally Bet-12.5 -11352 -108-500+350
BetAnything-12 -11051 -110-460+350
BetMGM-12.5 -10851.5 -105-475+360
BetOnline.ag-12 -11351.5 -105-450+350
betPARX-12.5 -11352 -108-500+350
BetRivers-13 -10952 -109-530+350
BetUS-12 -11551.5 -105-450+355
Bovada-12 -11051.5 -105-480+350
Caesars-12 -10951.5 -108-440+340
Courtside-12.5 -10651.5 +100-440+360
DraftKings-12.5 -10851.5 -102-455+350
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 51¢ -113 all-in81¢ -488 all-in22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics-12.5 -11051.5 -105-475+360
FanDuel-12.5 -11451.5 -110-490+365
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11051.5 -115-500+350
LowVig.ag-12 -10951.5 -103-450+350
MyBookie.ag-12 -11051 -110-549+380
Pinnacle-12.5 -10551 -113-483+351
ReBet-12.5 -11651.5 -109-549+370
theScore Bet-12.5 +10051.5 -115-450+340

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel +12.5 at -106 (1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +350 (21¢) at Kalshi
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): FanDuel +365 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +360 (-0.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +351 (-0.8%) · Caesars +340 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 22¢ on the app (+317 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · Caesars 51.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 51¢ (-3.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

A play at +14.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +11.5, only $3 available; Under 51.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-195
FPI-7.0-255
Sagarin-8.0-284
Massey-4.5-178
Market (19 books)-12.5-431
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.051.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +12.5-110-113+0.6%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+350+368priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at Massachusetts
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Massachusetts -6.5
should be Massachusetts -7.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was -4.5
▼A Little Nasty · MassachusettsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Massachusetts. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 7.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Massachusetts →
Market
Massachusetts by 6.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Massachusetts by 147.5 pts our side
FPI
Massachusetts by 12.56 pts our side
Sagarin
Massachusetts by 6.5on the market
Massey
Eastern Michigan by 1.58 pts against us
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 7.51.2 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Massachusetts. Massey at Eastern Michigan by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 7.5opened Massachusetts by 5.5now Massachusetts by 6.5SunTue

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Massachusetts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
444.5 pts under the market
Massey
501.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
471.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 48now 48.5SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-6.5 -11048.5 -110-235+185
Kalshi-6.5 -112 51¢48.5 -121 53¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-6.5 -10448.5 -113-239+196
All 21 books
Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-6.5 -11048.5 -110-235+185
Kalshi-6.5 -112 51¢48.5 -121 53¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
Bally Bet-6 -11448.5 -109-245+190
BetAnything-6.5 -11048.5 -110-235+195
BetMGM-6.5 -10848.5 -110-235+195
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11048.5 -112-235+195
betPARX-6 -11448.5 -109-245+190
BetRivers-6 -11548.5 -110-245+190
BetUS-6.5 -11048.5 -110-235+200
Bovada-6.5 -10548.5 -115-235+195
Courtside-6.5 -10548.5 -108-232+199
DraftKings-6.5 -10548.5 -110-238+195
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 51¢ -113 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in69¢ -245 all-in35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11049 -110-235+190
FanDuel-6.5 -11049.5 -106-240+195
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -10548.5 -110-240+190
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10648.5 -110-235+195
MyBookie.ag—48.5 -110——
Pinnacle-6.5 -10448.5 -113-239+196
ReBet-6.5 -10948.5 -114-248+188
theScore Bet-6.5 +10049.5 -105-225+190

Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -6.5 at -105 (5.5%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -108 (4.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -6.5 at -110 (4.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (3.7%).
A Little Nasty
Massachusetts to win · -235 at Fanatics
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 70. That's value. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -235 (3.7%) · DraftKings, Kalshi or FanDuel -238 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 69¢ on the app (-245 all-in) (2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -114 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.3%) · DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Massachusetts. The line went from -6.0 to -6.5.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Massachusetts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles +6.5, only $12 available; Under 48.5, only $190 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.0-483
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-6.5-217
Massey+1.5+112
Market (18 books)-6.5-225
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUMass Minutemen -6.5-105-131+5.5%
MoneylineUMass Minutemen ML-235-282+3.7%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-27 22:42.

TOM matches the consensus.

Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at Wisconsin
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am
Michigan State +10
should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars
▲A Little Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 10
The Four
SP+
Wisconsin by 91.2 pts our side
FPI
Wisconsin by 64.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 111 pts against us
Massey
Wisconsin by 64 pts our side
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 9.50.8 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Michigan State. Sagarin at Wisconsin by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 9.5opened Wisconsin by 10now Wisconsin by 10SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
SP+ pace
39.93.5 pts under the market
Massey
430.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.52 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.5opened 44.5now 43.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at Caesars
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): Caesars +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +10 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
Michigan State to win · +310 at Fanatics
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +320 (0.6%) · Fanatics +310 (-0.0%) · FanDuel +290 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-1.6%).
Off the band
the Under 43.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars 43.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Michigan State.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-9.0-305
FPI-6.0-202
Sagarin-11.0-381
Massey-6.0-204
Market (19 books)-10.0-366
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.541.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +10.0-102-109+1.6%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+310+310priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 43.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Miami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be Miami (OH) -14 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was -14.5
A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Miami (OH) by 24.511.3 pts our side
FPI
Miami (OH) by 162.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 184.8 pts our side
Massey
Miami (OH) by 11.51.7 pts against us
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 141.2 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Miami (OH). Massey at Miami (OH) by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 14opened Miami (OH) by 14.5now Miami (OH) by 13SunMon

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.12.6 pts over the market
Massey
430.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.1opened 46now 42.5SunTue

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11042.5 -110-565+395
Kalshi-13.5 -112 51¢43.5 -112 51¢-564 84¢—
Pinnacle-13 -11043 -112-587+409
All 21 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11042.5 -110-565+395
Kalshi-13.5 -112 51¢43.5 -112 51¢-564 84¢—
Bally Bet-14 -10844.5 -106-715+480
BetAnything-13 -11043 -110-575+435
BetMGM-13 -10842.5 -112-550+425
BetOnline.ag-13 -11042.5 -110-565+425
betPARX-14 -10844.5 -106-715+480
BetRivers-14 -10843.5 -122-715+480
BetUS-13 -11042.5 -110-565+435
Bovada-13 -11043.5 -105-585+410
Courtside-12.5 -11943.5 -108-530+423
DraftKings-13.5 -10542.5 -115-550+410
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 52¢ -117 all-in42.5 54¢ -127 all-in85¢ -670 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-13 -11043 -110-575+425
FanDuel-13.5 -10543.5 -108-580+420
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12043.5 -120-700+475
LowVig.ag-13 -10642.5 -108-565+425
MyBookie.ag-13 -11043 -110-649+440
Pinnacle-13 -11043 -112-587+409
ReBet-13.5 -11143.5 -111-676+430
theScore Bet-13.5 -10543.5 -105-650+425

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13 at -108 (1.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 51¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Miami (OH) to win · -565 (84¢) at Kalshi
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -550 (-1.2%) · Kalshi or TOM -564 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or FanDuel -575 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 85¢ on the app (-670 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 42.5 at -110 (0.0%) · BetMGM 42.5 at -112 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -108 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons +13.5, only $12 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1623
FPI-16.0-575
Sagarin-18.0-723
Massey-11.5-388
Market (18 books)-13.0-541
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.544.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami (OH) RedHawks -13.0-110-116+1.4%
MoneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks ML-565-504priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 42.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at Louisiana
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Over 48
should be 48.8 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore Louisiana →
Market
Louisiana by 6.5
The Four
SP+
Louisiana by 8.52.2 pts our side
FPI
Louisiana by 92.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Louisiana by 92.7 pts our side
Massey
Louisiana by 70.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 70.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Louisiana. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 7opened Louisiana by 6.5now Louisiana by 6.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48
The Four
SP+ pace
55.78 pts over the market
Massey
51.94.1 pts over the market
Weather
-1.064% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
52.85 pts over the market
Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.8opened 47now 48SunTue

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Louisiana -6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): FanDuel or BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -6.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
Louisiana to win · -235 at BetMGM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): BetMGM -235 (0.8%) · FanDuel -240 (0.4%) · DraftKings -250 (-0.4%) · Fanatics -260 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-9.0-308
Sagarin-9.0-310
Massey-7.0-231
Market (18 books)-6.5-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.052.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5-110-114+1.0%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML-235-245+0.8%
TotalOver 48.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConn
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UConn +6
should be UConn +5.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5
▲A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Syracuse by 6, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 5.5. At +101 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore UConn →
Market
Syracuse by 6TOM, +101
The Four
SP+
Syracuse by 0.55.7 pts our side
FPI
Syracuse by 5.50.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Syracuse by 5.50.4 pts our side
Massey
Syracuse by 23.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Syracuse by 5.50.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Syracuse by 5.5opened Syracuse by 5.5now Syracuse by 6SunTue

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UConn's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.61.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.84.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.71.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.7opened 52now 50SunTue

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+6 +10150 -105+200-250
Kalshi+6.5 -112 51¢50.5+198 32¢-239 69¢
Pinnacle+6 +10151 -102+203-250
All 21 books
UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+6 +10150 -105+200-250
Kalshi+6.5 -112 51¢50.5+198 32¢-239 69¢
Bally Bet+6 -10751.5 -108+185-235
BetAnything+6 -11050 -110+210-250
BetMGM+6.5 -10850.5 -108+200-235
BetOnline.ag+6 +10150 -105+207-250
betPARX+6 -10751.5 -108+185-235
BetRivers+6 -10851.5 -109+185-235
BetUS+6 +10050 -105+210-250
Bovada+6.5 -11050.5 -110+205-245
Courtside+6.5 -11050.5 -106+205-239
DraftKings+6.5 -11050.5 -108+200-245
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in51.5 48¢ -100 all-in33¢ +186 all-in70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics+6.5 -10550.5 -110+200-245
FanDuel+6.5 -11050.5 -114+188-230
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11551.5 -110+185-230
LowVig.ag+6 +10550 -103+207-250
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11050.5 -110+208-265
Pinnacle+6 +10151 -102+203-250
ReBet+6.5 -10950.5 -119+204-270
theScore Bet+6.5 +10050.5 -110+210-250

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +6.0 · +101 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UConn): TOM +6 at +101 (1.1%) · Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (0.8%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 51¢ (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +200 at Fanatics
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (UConn to win): Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +200 (0.5%) · Kalshi 32¢ (0.2%) · FanDuel +188 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 33¢ on the app (+186 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -105 (1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.3%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.0 · +101 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · UConn. The line went from +6.5 to +6.0.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -6.5, only $114 available; Over 50.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSyracuse by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5-100
FPI+5.5+193
Sagarin+5.5+196
Massey+2.0+118
Market (18 books)+6.0+209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.051.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +6.0+101-103+1.1%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+200+196+0.5%
TotalOver 50.0-105-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.8 consensus.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pm
Fresno State +2.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be Fresno State +1 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was +1
A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Washington State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 79.2 pts our side
FPI
Fresno State by 46.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington State by 30.6 pts against us
Massey
Washington State by 52.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Washington State by 11.4 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Fresno State. Sagarin at Washington State by 3 and Massey at Washington State by 5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington State by 1opened Washington State by 1now Washington State by 2.5SunTue

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
40.35.5 pts under the market
Massey
45.20.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.83 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 46.5now 46SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Fresno State +2.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.3%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (-0.2%).
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · +108
We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics +110 (1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +105 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +104 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 45.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +2.5 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onWashington State by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+4.0+174
Sagarin-3.0-139
Massey-5.0-185
Market (18 books)-2.5-121
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs +2.5-110-114+0.9%
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML+108+106+0.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.7.

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air Force
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Over 46Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 48.4 · getting 2.5 pts · was 49
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 12.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Air Force →
Market
Air Force by 3
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 2.5
FPI
Air Force by 4
Sagarin
Air Force by 3.5
Massey
Navy by 0.5
Nasty Number
Air Force by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Air Force by 3opened Air Force by 3now Air Force by 3SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
58.412.6 pts over the market
Massey
57.411.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.912.1 pts over the market
Over 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 12.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 47now 45.5SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢——+129 42¢
Pinnacle-3 -11545.5 -118-159+135
All 20 books
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢——+129 42¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10746.5 -112-165+133
BetAnything-3 -11546 -110-155+135
BetMGM-3 -11546.5 -105-160+135
BetOnline.ag-3 -11546 -110-155+135
betPARX-3.5 -10746.5 -112-165+133
BetRivers-3.5 -10846.5 -112-165+133
BetUS-3 -11546 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -11546 -110-160+135
Courtside-3.5 -10745.5 -110-166+145
DraftKings-3 -11845.5 -112-170+142
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in45.5 53¢ -122 all-in60¢ -163 all-in43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics-3 -11546 -110-160+135
FanDuel-3.5 +10246.5 -106-152+126
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10546.5 -110-165+135
LowVig.ag-3 -11146 -108-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 -11046 -110-176+143
Pinnacle-3 -11545.5 -118-159+135
ReBet-3.5 -10546.5 -114-180+140
theScore Bet-3.5 +10546.5 -105-165+140

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy +3.0 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -102 (-1.1%) · Fanatics +3 at -105 (-1.8%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -124 (-2.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
Navy to win · +142 at DraftKings
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Navy to win): DraftKings +142 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +135 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 42¢ (-2.5%) · FanDuel +126 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-3.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. That's 12.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (4.4%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.7%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -105 (3.5%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $78 available; Under 45.5, only $12 available; Air Force Falcons ML, only $259 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-121
FPI-4.0-169
Sagarin-3.5-158
Massey+0.5+102
Market (18 books)-3.0-149
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.057.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen +3.0-102+102-1.1%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML+142+143-0.1%
TotalOver 46.0-110-128shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 58.5Moved our way · 2 pts
should be 60.6 · getting 2.1 pts · was 59.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 4, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisville than the bookmore NC State →
Market
Louisville by 4
The Four
SP+
Louisville by 4.5
FPI
Louisville by 6
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Louisville by 4
Nasty Number
Louisville by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 4opened Louisville by 6now Louisville by 4SunTue

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
67.48.9 pts over the market
Massey
63.55 pts over the market
Nasty Number
65.56.9 pts over the market
Over 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 65.5opened 60.5now 58.5SunTue

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Louisville -3.5 · -108 at Caesars
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Louisville): Caesars or BetMGM -3.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings -4 at -105 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -3.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Louisville to win · -180 at Fanatics
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Louisville to win): FanDuel -178 (-1.1%) · Fanatics -180 (-1.4%) · BetMGM -185 (-2.0%) · Caesars -190 (-2.6%) · DraftKings -192 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 64. That's 6.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (3.0%) · Caesars 58.5 at -112 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.9%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.5+175
FPI+6.0+200
SagarinPK-100
Massey+4.0+170
Market (19 books)+4.0+166
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.565.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisville Cardinals -3.5-108-105-0.7%
MoneylineLouisville Cardinals ML-180-169-1.4%
TotalOver 58.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.9.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&M
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 50Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 51.7 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Texas A&M →
Market
Texas A&M by 14
The Four
SP+
Texas A&M by 11.5
FPI
Texas A&M by 15
Sagarin
Texas A&M by 16.5
Massey
Texas A&M by 12
Nasty Number
Texas A&M by 140.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas A&M by 14opened Texas A&M by 14now Texas A&M by 14SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
SP+ pace
57.57.3 pts over the market
Massey
554.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
55.35 pts over the market
Over 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.3opened 51.5now 50SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Kalshi-13.5 -126 54¢50.5-609 85¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-14 -10550 -112-627+430
All 21 books
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Kalshi-13.5 -126 54¢50.5-609 85¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-14 -11050.5 -113-625+450
BetAnything-14 -11050.5 -110-650+450
BetMGM-14 -10550.5 -110-625+475
BetOnline.ag-14 -11050 -115-630+464
betPARX-14 -11050.5 -113-625+450
BetRivers-14 -11250.5 -114-670+440
BetUS-14 -11050.5 -110-630+465
Bovada-14 -10550 -115-625+430
Caesars-14 -11250.5 -114-675+475
Courtside-14 -10850.5 -110-600+471
DraftKings-14 -11050.5 -112-625+455
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 47¢ +104 all-in86¢ -733 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-14 -11050.5 -110-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -11550.5 -114-650+460
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12050.5 -110-650+450
LowVig.ag-14 -10650 -114-630+464
MyBookie.ag-14 -11051 -110-625+430
Pinnacle-14 -10550 -112-627+430
ReBet-14.5 -10551.5 -111-649+420
theScore Bet-13.5 -11550.5 -115-750+475

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): Caesars +14 at -109 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +14 at -110 (-1.7%) · BetMGM +14 at -112 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +13.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +455 at FanDuel
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): Caesars or BetMGM +475 (0.2%) · FanDuel, Kalshi or DraftKings +460 (-0.3%) · Fanatics +440 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel or Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $25 available; Over 50.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas A&M by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-11.5-393
FPI-15.0-547
Sagarin-16.5-618
Massey-12.0-405
Market (19 books)-14.0-561
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.055.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +14.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+455+469priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana Tech
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Over 46Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 47.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 47
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →
Market
Army by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Army by 7
FPI
Army by 2
Sagarin
Louisiana Tech by 0.5
Massey
Army by 4.5
Nasty Number
Army by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Army by 2.5opened Army by 3.5now Army by 2.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Army by 3.5 to Army by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
52.76.5 pts over the market
Massey
50.94.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.076% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.84.6 pts over the market
Over 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 47now 46SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢46.5 -112 51¢—-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10846 -113+112-131
All 19 books
Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢46.5 -112 51¢—-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2 -10846.5 -107+107-132
BetAnything+2 -11046.5 -110+110-130
BetMGM+2 -11046.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10946.5 -110+105-125
betPARX+2 -10846.5 -107+107-132
BetRivers+2 -10946.5 -108+107-132
BetUS+1.5 -11046.5 -110+105-125
Bovada+2.5 -11046 -115+110-130
Courtside+2.5 -11546.5 -108+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11546.5 -110+110-130
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 52¢ -117 all-in45.5 55¢ -132 all-in47¢ +104 all-in56¢ -138 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -11046.5 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11546.5 -108+105-126
LowVig.ag+1.5 -10546.5 -108+105-125
MyBookie.ag+2 -11046.5 -110+108-132
Pinnacle+2.5 -10846 -113+112-131
ReBet+2.5 -11646.5 -114+104-137
theScore Bet+1.5 -10546.5 -105+105-125

Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army -2.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Army): BetMGM -2 at -108 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -2.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Army to win · -130 at DraftKings
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Army to win): BetMGM or FanDuel -125 (-0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $12 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArmy by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5-100
Massey+4.5+177
Market (17 books)+2.5+120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.050.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArmy Black Knights -2.0-108-107-0.2%
MoneylineArmy Black Knights ML-130-124-1.1%
TotalOver 46.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'i
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pm
Hawai'i -3
should be Hawai'i -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San José State than the bookmore Hawai'i →
Market
Hawai'i by 3TOM, -102
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side
FPI
Hawai'i by 4.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side
Massey
Hawai'i by 2.50.6 pts against us
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 3.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Hawai'i. Massey at Hawai'i by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 3.5opened Hawai'i by 3now Hawai'i by 3MonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.94.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.70.8 pts under the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
48.13.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.1opened 51.5now 51.5MonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLSan José State ML
TOM-3 -10251.5 -110-142+117
Pinnacle-3 +10151.5 -106-142+121
All 21 books
Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLSan José State ML
TOM-3 -10251.5 -110-142+117
Bally Bet-3 -10551.5 -108-148+118
BetAnything-3 -11051 -110-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -11551.5 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-3 -10251.5 -110-142+122
betPARX-3 -10551.5 -108-148+118
BetRivers-3 -10651.5 -109-148+118
BetUS-3 +10051.5 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -12051.5 -105-140+120
Caesars-3 -10851.5 -110-143+121
Courtside-3 -10351.5 -110-139+122
DraftKings-3 -10551.5 -112-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in58¢ -150 all-in45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics-3 -10551.5 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -11551.5 -110-146+122
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11551.5 -110-145+120
LowVig.ag-3 +10251.5 -108-142+122
MyBookie.ag-3 -11051.5 -110-148+121
Pinnacle-3 +10151.5 -106-142+121
ReBet-2.5 -12551.5 -111-154+116
theScore Bet-2.5 -11051.5 -105-135+115

Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -3.0 · -102 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM -3 at -102 (1.7%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -3 at -105 (1.0%) · Caesars -3 at -108 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -142 at DraftKings
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): DraftKings, TOM or Caesars -142 (1.6%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or FanDuel -145 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (0.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i -3.0 · -102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.0-187
FPI-4.5-175
Sagarin-5.0-187
Massey-2.5-120
Market (19 books)-3.0-136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.548.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.0-102-109+1.7%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-142-152+1.6%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 6.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLV
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
California +3
should be California +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -0.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 3, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore UNLV →
Market
UNLV by 3
The Four
SP+
UNLV by 3on the market
FPI
UNLV by 1.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
California by 35.9 pts our side
Massey
UNLV by 1.51.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
UNLV by 2.50.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean California. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 2.5opened UNLV by 2now UNLV by 3SunTue

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in California's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
50.92.2 pts under the market
Massey
49.83.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.42.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 53now 53SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢52.5-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-3 -10153 -108-141+120
All 21 books
UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢52.5-136 56¢+114 45¢
Bally Bet-2 -11253.5 -109-130+106
BetAnything-2.5 -11053.5 -110-135+115
BetMGM-2.5 -11553.5 -108-140+115
BetOnline.ag-3 -10553 -110-142+122
betPARX-2 -11253.5 -109-130+106
BetRivers-2 -11353.5 -110-130+106
BetUS-2.5 -11053 -110-140+120
Bovada-3 -10553 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -10953.5 -106-136+115
Courtside-2.5 -11253.5 -106-139+122
DraftKings-2.5 -11253.5 -108-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 56¢ -138 all-in57¢ -144 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-3 -10553 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11252.5 -118-134+112
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -10553.5 -110-130+105
LowVig.ag-3 +10053 -108-142+122
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11053 -110-138+113
Pinnacle-3 -10153 -108-141+120
ReBet-2.5 -11653.5 -111-141+110
theScore Bet-2.5 -11552.5 -115-145+125

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +3.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.5%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.7%) · Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-2.1%).
Not Nasty
California to win · +120 at DraftKings
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (California to win): DraftKings +120 (0.0%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +115 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 45¢ (-1.3%) · FanDuel +112 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Caesars 53.5 at -114 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -104 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.3 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears +2.5, only $14 available; Over 52.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-139
FPI-1.5-110
Sagarin+3.0+143
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-3.0-128
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.050.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +3.0-110-118+1.6%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML+120+120+0.0%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.4.

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South Alabama
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
South Alabama -14
should be South Alabama -15 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore South Alabama →
Market
South Alabama by 14
The Four
SP+
South Alabama by 161.8 pts our side
FPI
South Alabama by 184 pts our side
Sagarin
South Alabama by 18.54.6 pts our side
Massey
South Alabama by 172.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Alabama by 151 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean South Alabama. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Alabama by 15opened South Alabama by 14now South Alabama by 14SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57
The Four
SP+ pace
65.68.6 pts over the market
Massey
59.22.2 pts over the market
Weather
-1.085% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
61.44.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.4opened 56now 57SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.5 -121 53¢57.5 -107 50¢-609 85¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-14 -10457 -109-620+427
All 19 books
South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.5 -121 53¢57.5 -107 50¢-609 85¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-14 -10856.5 -113-715+480
BetAnything-14 -11057 -110-650+450
BetMGM-14 -10857.5 -108-600+450
BetOnline.ag-14 -10857 -115-600+446
betPARX-14 -10856.5 -113-715+480
BetRivers-14 -10956.5 -113-715+480
BetUS-14 -11057 -115-600+450
Bovada-14 -10557 -110-625+430
Courtside-14 -10657.5 -106-576+455
DraftKings-14 -10857.5 -108-600+440
Fanatics-14 -11057 -110-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -11557.5 -112-650+460
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12056.5 -110-700+475
LowVig.ag-14 -10457 -114-600+446
MyBookie.ag-14 -11057 -110-625+430
Pinnacle-14 -10457 -109-620+427
ReBet-14.5 -10956.5 -119-625+410
theScore Bet-13.5 -11557.5 -105-750+475

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama -14.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel -13.5 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -14 at -108 (0.8%) · Fanatics -14 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · -625
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi -600 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -650 (-2.2%).
Off the band
the Over 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 57.5 at -107 (0.3%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -112 (-0.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 85% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5, only $36 available; Under 57.5, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Alabama by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.0-570
FPI-18.0-739
Sagarin-18.5-798
Massey-17.0-622
Market (18 books)-14.0-558
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.061.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars -14.0-110-112+0.4%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML-625-542priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.5.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Iowa +14
should be Iowa +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 14, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Ohio State by 14
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 122.3 pts our side
FPI
Ohio State by 131.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Ohio State by 5.58.4 pts our side
Massey
Ohio State by 94.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 13.50.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 13.5opened Ohio State by 14now Ohio State by 14FriSatSunMonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
44.61.2 pts under the market
Massey
44.11.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.41.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.4opened 46now 46SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa +14.0 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +14 at -105 (0.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +14.5 at -115 (0.0%) · BetMGM +14 at -108 (-0.4%) · Caesars +14 at -109 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · +500 at FanDuel
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa to win): FanDuel +500 (1.4%) · BetMGM +475 (0.7%) · Caesars +450 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +440 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-1.9%).
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 45.5 at -107 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-2.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+402
FPI+13.0+426
Sagarin+5.5+197
Massey+9.0+310
Market (19 books)+14.0+569
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +14.0-105-106+0.3%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML+500+452priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.8.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at Colorado
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:31pm
Texas Tech -13
should be Texas Tech -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 13, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 13.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Colorado →
Market
Texas Tech by 13
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 21.58.5 pts our side
FPI
Texas Tech by 15.52.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 10.52.2 pts against us
Massey
Texas Tech by 13on the market
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 13.50.8 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Texas Tech. Sagarin at Texas Tech by 10.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 13.5opened Texas Tech by 13.5now Texas Tech by 13.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
SP+ pace
49.21 pts under the market
Massey
50.1on the market
Nasty Number
49.70.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.7opened 50now 50SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.550.5+398 19¢-524 83¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -10450 -115+386-544
All 21 books
Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.550.5+398 19¢-524 83¢
Bally Bet+13.5 -10850.5 -112+425-590
BetAnything+13 -11050.5 -110+375-500
BetMGM+13 -11250.5 -110+400-525
BetOnline.ag+13 -11350.5 -110——
betPARX+13.5 -10850.5 -112+425-590
BetRivers+13.5 -10950.5 -113+420-625
BetUS+13 -11050.5 -110+390-500
Bovada+13 -11050.5 -110+390-550
Caesars+13 -10950.5 -107+380-500
Courtside+12.5 -10650.5 -108+381-468
DraftKings+12.5 -10850.5 -110+370-485
DraftKings Predictions+12.5 50¢ -108 all-in51.5 48¢ -100 all-in20¢ +355 all-in83¢ -566 all-in
Fanatics+13 -11050.5 -110+410-550
FanDuel+13.5 -11550.5 -108+400-550
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -11050.5 -110+425-600
LowVig.ag+13 -10950.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag+13 -11050.5 -110+420-599
Pinnacle+12.5 -10450 -115+386-544
ReBet+13.5 -11150.5 -114+390-649
theScore Bet+12.5 -11050.5 -105+400-600

Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -13.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas Tech): Kalshi -13.5 at 48¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM -13 at -105 (-0.3%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or Caesars -13 at -110 (-1.4%).
Not Nasty
Texas Tech to win · -485 at DraftKings
We make it 82 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas Tech to win): DraftKings -485 (-1.2%) · Caesars -500 (-1.6%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -524 (-2.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -550 (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi or FanDuel 50.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -113 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +16.0, now +13.0. The market has moved 3.2 away from Texas Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +13.5, only $455 available; Over 50.5, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++21.5+1116
FPI+15.5+556
Sagarin+10.5+368
Massey+13.0+430
Market (19 books)+13.0+488
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Tech Red Raiders -13.5+101-101+0.4%
MoneylineTexas Tech Red Raiders ML-485-448priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Iowa State to win
our data says 62 in 100 · -154
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more West Virginia than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Iowa State by 3.5
The Four
SP+
Iowa State by 40.7 pts our side
FPI
Iowa State by 3.5on the market
Sagarin
Iowa State by 4.50.8 pts our side
Massey
Iowa State by 128.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Iowa State by 3.50.1 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa State by 3.5opened West Virginia by 1.5now Iowa State by 3.5SunMonTue

The market has come 5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
52.20.6 pts under the market
Massey
53.60.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 53now 53SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State -3.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel -3.5 at +100 (0.4%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · Caesars -3.5 at -104 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -3.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa State to win · -154 at FanDuel
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel -154 (1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -160 (0.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars -162 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 63¢ on the app (-185 all-in) (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 52.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · Fanatics 53 at -110 (-2.7%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -118 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-7.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State to win · -154 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onIowa State by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-3.5-164
Sagarin-4.5-176
Massey-12.0-407
Market (19 books)-3.5-150
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.052.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineIowa State Cyclones ML-154-164+1.4%
SpreadIowa State Cyclones -3.5+100-102+0.4%
TotalOver 53.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Alabama -6
should be Alabama -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Alabama by 6
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 5.5
FPI
Alabama by 8
Sagarin
Alabama by 3.5
Massey
Alabama by 9.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 6.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 6.5opened Alabama by 6now Alabama by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60
The Four
SP+ pace
644.2 pts over the market
Massey
62.32.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.052% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
62.22.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 62.2opened 59.5now 59.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.560.5 -107 50¢—-229 68¢
Pinnacle+6 -10959.5 -116+188-229
All 20 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.560.5 -107 50¢—-229 68¢
Bally Bet+6 -11260 -110+188-235
BetAnything+6 -11060 -110+180-220
BetMGM+6 -11060.5 -108+185-225
BetOnline.ag+6 -11160.5 -105+189-225
betPARX+6 -11260 -110+188-235
BetRivers+6 -11360 -112+185-240
BetUS+6 -11060.5 -105+190-225
Bovada+6 -11060 -110+190-230
Courtside+6 -11059.5 -115+189-220
DraftKings+6 -11259.5 -112+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in60.5 50¢ -108 all-in34¢ +178 all-in69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11060 -110+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10260.5 -110+180-220
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10559.5 -115+190-230
LowVig.ag+6 -10760.5 -103+189-225
MyBookie.ag+6 -11060.5 -110+184-230
Pinnacle+6 -10959.5 -116+188-229
ReBet+6.5 -11660.5 -116+180-236
theScore Bet+6.5 -11060.5 -105+195-230

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -6.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings or BetMGM -6 at -108 (-1.2%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 50¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.5%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Alabama to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Alabama to win): FanDuel -220 (-1.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -225 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 68¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 69¢ on the app (-245 all-in) (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 60.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 59.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 60 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 60.5 at -107 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.0%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5, only $462 available; Under 60.5, only $87 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+197
FPI+8.0+293
Sagarin+3.5+163
Massey+9.5+325
Market (18 books)+6.0+210
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.062.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -6.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-225-208-1.7%
TotalOver 60.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Under 55.5
should be 54.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.

The spread

← more Boston College than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 21
The Four
SP+
SMU by 20
FPI
SMU by 16
Sagarin
SMU by 19
Massey
SMU by 15.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 201 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 20opened SMU by 21now SMU by 21SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.34.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.52.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.067% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.94.5 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.9opened 57now 55.5SunTue

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.555.5 -107 50¢-1236 92¢+841 10¢
Pinnacle-21 -10355.5 -106-1499+798
All 20 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.555.5 -107 50¢-1236 92¢+841 10¢
Bally Bet-21 -10955.5 -107-2000+900
BetAnything-21 -11055 -110-1600+900
BetMGM-20.5 -11255.5 -105-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-21 -10955 -110-1600+910
betPARX-21 -10955.5 -107-2000+900
BetRivers-21 -11055.5 -108-2000+850
BetUS-21 -11055 -110-1600+900
Bovada-21 -10555.5 -105-1600+800
Courtside-21 -10655.5 +100-1509+1008
DraftKings-21 -10855.5 -102-1650+950
DraftKings Predictions-20.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 54¢ -127 all-in93¢ -1901 all-in10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics-21 -11055.5 -105-1500+900
FanDuel-20.5 -11555.5 -106-1800+920
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -12055.5 -105-2000+900
LowVig.ag-21 -10555 -108-1600+910
MyBookie.ag-21 -11055 -110-1587+800
Pinnacle-21 -10355.5 -106-1499+798
ReBet-21.5 -10555.5 -109-1695+750
theScore Bet-20.5 -11055.5 -105-1800+900

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +21.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Boston College): Fanatics +21 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings +21 at -112 (0.6%) · Kalshi +20.5 at 49¢ (0.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +20.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Boston College to win · +900 at FanDuel
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +950 (0.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +920 (0.3%) · Kalshi 10¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 10¢ on the app (+733 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (0.8%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (0.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 55.5 at -115 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (0.0%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -118 (-0.6%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.0-878
FPI-16.0-581
Sagarin-19.0-822
Massey-15.5-563
Market (18 books)-21.0-1326
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.550.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBoston College Eagles +21.0-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineBoston College Eagles ML+900+889priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at Kansas
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Kansas -18.5
should be Kansas -19 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Kansas →
Market
Kansas by 18.5
The Four
SP+
Kansas by 19
FPI
Kansas by 15.5
Sagarin
Kansas by 25
Massey
Kansas by 21.5
Nasty Number
Kansas by 190.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas by 19opened Kansas by 18.5now Kansas by 18.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
SP+ pace
511.2 pts over the market
Massey
52.22.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.61.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 50.5now 50SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi-18.549.5-1087 91¢—
Pinnacle-18.5 -10750 -105-1238+702
All 20 books
Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi-18.549.5-1087 91¢—
Bally Bet-19 -10949.5 -114-2000+900
BetAnything-18.5 -11049.5 -110-1400+825
BetMGM-18.5 -10849.5 -108-1200+825
BetOnline.ag-18 -11549 -110-1300+795
betPARX-19 -10949.5 -114-2000+900
BetRivers-19 -10949.5 -114-2000+900
BetUS-18.5 -11049.5 -110-1300+780
Bovada-18.5 -11049.5 -115-1200+700
Courtside-18.5 -11049.5 -108-1252+842
DraftKings-18.5 -11249.5 -110-1350+800
DraftKings Predictions-18.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 56¢ -138 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics-18.5 -11050 -110-1300+800
FanDuel-19.5 -10649.5 -110-1200+720
Hard Rock Bet-18.5 -11549.5 -115-2000+900
LowVig.ag-18 -11149 -108-1300+795
MyBookie.ag-19 -11050 -110-1205+700
Pinnacle-18.5 -10750 -105-1238+702
ReBet-19.5 -11650.5 -116-1299+660
theScore Bet-18.5 -11549.5 -110-1400+750

Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas -18.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Kansas): BetMGM -18.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · Fanatics -18.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -18.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -106 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -18.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Kansas to win · -1087 (91¢) at Kalshi
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kansas to win): Kalshi 91¢ (-2.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -1200 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -1300 (-3.9%) · DraftKings -1350 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 92¢ on the app (-1567 all-in) (-5.0%).
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 49.5 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.

Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks -18.5, only $54 available; Over 49.5, only $30 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $334 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onKansas by 1930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-836
FPI-15.5-567
Sagarin-25.0-1761
Massey-21.5-1146
Market (18 books)-18.5-1114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.051.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas Jayhawks -18.5-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineKansas Jayhawks ML-1087-808priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at Minnesota
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Michigan -6
should be Michigan -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Michigan than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Michigan by 6
The Four
SP+
Michigan by 5.5
FPI
Michigan by 9.5
Sagarin
Michigan by 2
Massey
Michigan by 7.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 60.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 6opened Michigan by 6now Michigan by 6SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
SP+ pace
38.94.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.32.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.11 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.1opened 43now 43SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+5.5 -103 49¢43.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Pinnacle+6 -11643 -113+180-217
All 21 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+5.5 -103 49¢43.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11043.5 -112+175-215
BetAnything+5.5 -11043.5 -110+175-215
BetMGM+5.5 -11243.5 -108+180-220
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11043 -110+181-212
betPARX+5.5 -11043.5 -112+175-215
BetRivers+5.5 -11243.5 -113+170-220
BetUS+5.5 -11043 -110+180-210
Bovada+5.5 -11043 -115+180-220
Caesars+5.5 -11043.5 -112+184-225
Courtside+5.5 -11043.5 -106+189-220
DraftKings+5.5 -11043.5 -108+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in42.5 55¢ -132 all-in35¢ +171 all-in68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics+5.5 -11043.5 -105+180-220
FanDuel+5.5 -11043.5 -108+176-215
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11043.5 -110+175-210
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10643 -108+181-212
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11043.5 -110+198-250
Pinnacle+6 -11643 -113+180-217
ReBet+5.5 -10943.5 -111+193-255
theScore Bet+5.5 -11043.5 +100+175-210

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -5.5 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars -5.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 52¢ (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -215 at FanDuel
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Michigan to win): FanDuel -215 (-1.5%) · Kalshi 67¢ (-1.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -220 (-2.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars -225 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 68¢ on the app (-234 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or FanDuel 43.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · Fanatics 43.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+195
FPI+9.5+310
Sagarin+2.0+117
Massey+7.5+274
Market (19 books)+6.0+201
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -5.5-108-104-0.9%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-215-201-1.5%
TotalUnder 43.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Notre Dame -21.5
should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →
Market
Notre Dame by 21.5
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 23
FPI
Notre Dame by 20.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 16.5
Massey
Notre Dame by 22
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 21.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 21.5opened Notre Dame by 21.5now Notre Dame by 21.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.12.3 pts under the market
Massey
47.10.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.11.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.1opened 47.5now 47.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—45.5 -136 56¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Pinnacle+21.5 -11847.5 -103+849-1647
All 20 books
North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—45.5 -136 56¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Bally Bet+21.5 -11247 -114+1300—
BetAnything+21 -11047.5 -110——
BetMGM+21 -10847.5 -108+1150-2000
BetOnline.ag+21 -10847 -115——
betPARX+21.5 -11247 -114+1300—
BetRivers+21.5 -11347 -115+1300—
BetUS+21 -10547 -115+1000-1800
Bovada+21 -11047 -110+850-1800
Courtside+21 -10847.5 -106+1008-1509
DraftKings+21 -11047.5 -108+950-1650
DraftKings Predictions+21.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 56¢ -138 all-in8¢ +900 all-in94¢ -2401 all-in
Fanatics+21 -11047.5 -105+1050-1800
FanDuel+21.5 -12047.5 -110+1200-3000
Hard Rock Bet+21.5 -11047.5 -105+1300-3000
LowVig.ag+21 -10447 -114——
MyBookie.ag+21 -11047.5 -110+900-1887
Pinnacle+21.5 -11847.5 -103+849-1647
ReBet+21.5 -11647.5 -111+830-2000
theScore Bet+20.5 +10047.5 -110+1100-2500

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Carolina +21.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (North Carolina): BetMGM +21 at -108 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +21.5 at -120 (-3.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +21 at -110 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +21.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
North Carolina to win · +1100
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (North Carolina to win): Kalshi 7¢ (0.8%) · FanDuel +1200 (0.6%) · BetMGM +1150 (0.3%) · Fanatics +1050 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +950 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 47¢ (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 21.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1319
FPI+20.5+921
Sagarin+16.5+609
Massey+22.0+1202
Market (18 books)+21.5+1558
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.546.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +21.5-110-104-1.3%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+1100+1106priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.1.

The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake Forest
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Wake Forest -13
should be Wake Forest -13 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Wake Forest by 13
The Four
SP+
Wake Forest by 14.5
FPI
Wake Forest by 14
Sagarin
Wake Forest by 13.5
Massey
Wake Forest by 10.5
Nasty Number
Wake Forest by 130.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wake Forest by 13opened Wake Forest by 13now Wake Forest by 13SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
540.5 pts over the market
Massey
55.62.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.8opened 54.5now 53.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-13.553.5 -116 52¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-13 -10753.5 -110-540+384
All 20 books
Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-13.553.5 -116 52¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet-13 -11253.5 -110-625+440
BetAnything-12.5 -11053.5 -110-550+410
BetMGM-13 -10853.5 -110-525+400
BetOnline.ag-12.5 -11353.5 -110-525+400
betPARX-13 -11253.5 -110-625+440
BetRivers-13 -11353.5 -112-625+430
BetUS-12.5 -11053.5 -110-525+405
Bovada-13 -11053.5 -110-550+390
Courtside-12.5 -11053.5 -108-501+402
DraftKings-12.5 -11253.5 -110-520+390
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 51¢ -113 all-in54.5 49¢ -104 all-in84¢ -614 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-13 -11053.5 -110-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11553.5 -110-580+420
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11553.5 -110-650+450
LowVig.ag-12.5 -10953.5 -108-525+400
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11053.5 -110-549+400
Pinnacle-13 -10753.5 -110-540+384
ReBet-13.5 -11453.5 -116-575+380
theScore Bet-12.5 -11053.5 -110-650+425

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wake Forest): BetMGM -13 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · Fanatics -13 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Wake Forest to win · -544
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings, Kalshi, Fanatics or BetMGM -520 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -580 (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 84¢ on the app (-614 all-in) (-4.7%).
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.5%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (-2.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 36% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest).

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWake Forest by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.5-509
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-13.5-440
Massey-10.5-369
Market (18 books)-13.0-491
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.554.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML-544-434priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at Georgia
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45am
Georgia -24
should be Georgia -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 24TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 25
FPI
Georgia by 25
Sagarin
Georgia by 19
Massey
Georgia by 19.5
Nasty Number
Georgia by 24.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 24.5opened Georgia by 24.5now Georgia by 24SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 24.5 to Georgia by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.61.6 pts over the market
Massey
56.55.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.63.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.6opened 51now 51SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24 -11051 -110——
Kalshi—51.5-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
Pinnacle-24 -10250.5 -112-2647+1144
All 21 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24 -11051 -110——
Kalshi—51.5-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
Bally Bet-24.5 -10851 -110—+1600
BetAnything-24.5 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-24 -11050.5 -112-2500+1400
BetOnline.ag-24 -11051 -110-3000+1256
betPARX-24.5 -10851 -110—+1600
BetRivers-24.5 -10951 -112—+1500
BetUS-24.5 -11051 -110-3000+1300
Bovada-23.5 -11550.5 -115-2800+1100
Courtside-24.5 -10650.5 -113-2433+1405
DraftKings-24.5 -10850.5 -115-2800+1300
DraftKings Predictions-24.5 50¢ -108 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in96¢ -4900 all-in6¢ +1150 all-in
Fanatics-24 -11051 -110-2500+1300
FanDuel-24.5 -10451.5 -102—+1400
Hard Rock Bet-24.5 -11050.5 -120—+1600
LowVig.ag-24 -10651 -108-3000+1256
MyBookie.ag-24.5 -11050.5 -110—+1161
Pinnacle-24 -10250.5 -112-2647+1144
ReBet-24.5 -11150.5 -114-3030+950
theScore Bet-24.5 +10050.5 -115—+1300

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia -24.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -24 at -110 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -104 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -24.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Georgia to win · -3000
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 97, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi -2500 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -2800 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -4000 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 96¢ on the app (-4900 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (0.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -102 (0.3%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 82°F, 33% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 24.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-1772
FPI-25.0-1786
Sagarin-19.0-823
Massey-19.5-844
Market (18 books)-24.0-2429
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.054.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Bulldogs -24.0-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineGeorgia Bulldogs ML-3000-1647priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at Buffalo
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pm
Western Michigan -13.5
should be Western Michigan -13.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Buffalo →
Market
Western Michigan by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Western Michigan by 8
FPI
Western Michigan by 13.5
Sagarin
Western Michigan by 13.5
Massey
Western Michigan by 11
Nasty Number
Western Michigan by 13.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Michigan by 13.5opened Western Michigan by 14now Western Michigan by 13.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
38.88 pts under the market
Massey
49.52.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.22.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.2opened 48now 47SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi+13.5 -107 50¢46.5 -116 52¢+456 17¢-609 85¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -10747 -107+422-611
All 20 books
Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi+13.5 -107 50¢46.5 -116 52¢+456 17¢-609 85¢
Bally Bet+14 -11546.5 -117+510-770
BetAnything+13.5 -11046.5 -110+435-575
BetMGM+13.5 -10546.5 -110+450-625
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -11046 -110+431-575
betPARX+14 -11546.5 -117+510-770
BetRivers+14 -11746.5 -118+510-835
BetUS+13.5 -11046.5 -110+440-575
Bovada+13.5 -11047 -110+425-600
Courtside+13.5 -10646.5 -108+455-576
DraftKings+13.5 -10846.5 -110+440-600
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 51¢ -113 all-in45.5 55¢ -132 all-in18¢ +400 all-in85¢ -670 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -11047 -110+440-600
FanDuel+13.5 -10846.5 -112+450-630
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -10546.5 -115+500-750
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10646 -108+431-575
MyBookie.ag+13.5 -11046.5 -110+450-649
Pinnacle+13.5 -10747 -107+422-611
ReBet+13.5 -10946.5 -116+440-699
theScore Bet+13.5 -11047.5 -105+450-700

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +13.5 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buffalo): BetMGM +13.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or FanDuel +13.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Buffalo to win · +450 (17¢) at Kalshi
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buffalo to win): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +456 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +440 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-1.4%).
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 47 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.0%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (-2.2%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Western Michigan Broncos -13.5, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Michigan by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.0+284
FPI+13.5+452
Sagarin+13.5+441
Massey+11.0+387
Market (18 books)+13.5+556
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.044.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +13.5-105-101-0.9%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+450+437priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pm
Toledo -19.5
should be Toledo -20 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.5.

The spread

← more Toledo than the bookmore Ball State →
Market
Toledo by 19.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Toledo by 23
FPI
Toledo by 22
Sagarin
Toledo by 16.5
Massey
Toledo by 19
Nasty Number
Toledo by 200.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 20opened Toledo by 19now Toledo by 19.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19 to Toledo by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.52.5 pts under the market
Massey
54.52.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52opened 51.5now 52SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19.5 -11052 -115——
Pinnacle+18.5 -10252 -113+722-1290
All 21 books
Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19.5 -11052 -115——
Bally Bet+19.5 -10951.5 -110+900-2000
BetAnything+19.5 -11052 -110+750-1300
BetMGM+19.5 -11052.5 -102+825-1200
BetOnline.ag+19.5 -11052 -115+795-1300
betPARX+19.5 -10951.5 -110+900-2000
BetRivers+19.5 -11051.5 -112+900-2000
BetUS+19.5 -11052 -110+780-1300
Bovada+19.5 -11052.5 -105+725-1300
Caesars+19.5 -10952 -113+800-1450
Courtside+19.5 -11052.5 +100+842-1252
DraftKings+19.5 -11252.5 -102+800-1350
DraftKings Predictions+19.5 52¢ -117 all-in51.5 54¢ -127 all-in11¢ +669 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in
Fanatics+19.5 -11052 -110+800-1300
FanDuel+19.5 -10851.5 -115+800-1400
Hard Rock Bet+19.5 -11051.5 -110+900-2000
LowVig.ag+19.5 -10652 -114+795-1300
MyBookie.ag+19.5 -11052 -110+764-1442
Pinnacle+18.5 -10252 -113+722-1290
ReBet+20.5 -11951.5 -114+660-1299
theScore Bet+19.5 -11051.5 -115+800-1600

Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -19.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): DraftKings or BetMGM -19.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM -19.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -19.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Toledo to win · -1300 at Fanatics
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): BetMGM -1200 (-2.2%) · Fanatics -1300 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -1350 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -1400 (-3.2%) · Caesars -1450 (-3.5%).
Off the band
the Under 52.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars 52 at -107 (-1.7%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -118 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 2040% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1344
FPI+22.0+1212
Sagarin+16.5+596
Massey+19.0+827
Market (19 books)+19.5+1151
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.052.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadToledo Rockets -19.5-110-105-1.1%
MoneylineToledo Rockets ML-1300-909priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-105+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.

TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.

The line is +19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central Michigan
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Central Michigan -6.5
should be Central Michigan -6.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 6.5
The Four
SP+
Central Michigan by 6.5
FPI
Central Michigan by 6
Sagarin
Central Michigan by 8
Massey
Central Michigan by 6.5
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 6.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Central Michigan by 6.5opened Central Michigan by 6now Central Michigan by 6.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Central Michigan by 6 to Central Michigan by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
41.25.9 pts under the market
Massey
46.50.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.93.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.9opened 47now 47SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢47.5 -107 50¢—+198 32¢
Pinnacle-6.5 -11147 -110-252+204
All 20 books
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢47.5 -107 50¢—+198 32¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -10847.5 -109-240+188
BetAnything-6.5 -11047 -110-245+205
BetMGM-6.5 -11047.5 -105-250+200
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11347 -110-250+207
betPARX-6.5 -10847.5 -109-240+188
BetRivers-6.5 -10947.5 -109-240+188
BetUS-6.5 -11547 -110-250+210
Bovada-6.5 -11547 -110-250+210
Courtside-6.5 -11246.5 -121-244+210
DraftKings-6.5 -11247.5 -102-250+205
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 52¢ -117 all-in48.5 47¢ +104 all-in70¢ -257 all-in33¢ +186 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11547 -110-260+210
FanDuel-6.5 -11047.5 -106-245+198
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11047.5 -110-240+190
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10947 -108-250+207
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11047 -110-265+208
Pinnacle-6.5 -11147 -110-252+204
ReBet-6.5 -11647.5 -109-270+204
theScore Bet-6.5 -11047.5 -105-240+200

Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan -6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Central Michigan): FanDuel or BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Central Michigan to win · -250 at DraftKings
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Central Michigan to win): FanDuel -245 (-2.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -250 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 70¢ on the app (-257 all-in) (-3.8%) · Fanatics -260 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-0.7%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -118 (-1.5%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 53¢ (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan).

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +6.5, only $12 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-219
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-8.0-294
Massey-6.5-225
Market (18 books)-6.5-229
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas -6.5-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineCentral Michigan Chippewas ML-250-214-3.3%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Tennessee -7
should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 7
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 8.5
FPI
Tennessee by 7.5
Sagarin
Tennessee by 8
Massey
Tennessee by 9
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 7.5opened Tennessee by 7now Tennessee by 7SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.15.3 pts under the market
Massey
54.2on the market
Weather
-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.73.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.7opened 54.5now 54.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi-7.5 -103 49¢54.5 +101 48¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-7 -11054.5 -103-288+230
All 20 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi-7.5 -103 49¢54.5 +101 48¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-7 -11354.5 -112-278+210
BetAnything-7 -11054.5 -110-280+230
BetMGM-7 -11054.5 -105-285+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11354 -110-280+230
betPARX-7 -11354.5 -112-278+210
BetRivers-7 -11454.5 -113-278+210
BetUS-7 -11354 -110-280+235
Bovada-7 -11054 -110-285+235
Courtside-7 -11054.5 -108-278+236
DraftKings-7 -11254.5 -110-285+230
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 49¢ -104 all-in54.5 50¢ -108 all-in73¢ -300 all-in30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11054 -110-285+230
FanDuel-7.5 +10054.5 -110-295+235
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 +10054.5 -110-275+210
LowVig.ag-7 -10954 -108-280+230
MyBookie.ag-7 -11054 -110-295+232
Pinnacle-7 -11054.5 -103-288+230
ReBet-7.5 -10954.5 -111-300+226
theScore Bet-7.5 +10054.5 -110-290+240

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -7.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Tennessee): Fanatics or BetMGM -7 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -7 at -112 (-0.8%) · FanDuel -7.5 at +100 (-1.2%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 49¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Tennessee to win · -280
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -285 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 73¢ (-1.9%) · FanDuel -295 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 73¢ on the app (-300 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +7.5, only $30 available; Under 54.5, only $397 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-302
FPI-7.5-267
Sagarin-8.0-289
Massey-9.0-306
Market (18 books)-7.0-261
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.550.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Volunteers -7.0-110-109-0.3%
MoneylineTennessee Volunteers ML-280-263-1.2%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at Charlotte
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 53
should be 54 · getting 1.1 pts · was 54
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Memphis by 20
The Four
SP+
Memphis by 27.5
FPI
Memphis by 16.5
Sagarin
Memphis by 15.5
Massey
Memphis by 18.5
Nasty Number
Memphis by 19.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Memphis by 19.5opened Memphis by 20now Memphis by 20SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
60.47.5 pts over the market
Massey
57.44.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
57.95 pts over the market
Over 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 54now 53SunTue

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi+20.552.5—-1236 92¢
Pinnacle+20 -10753 -107+738-1334
All 20 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi+20.552.5—-1236 92¢
Bally Bet+20.5 -11252.5 -113+950-2000
BetAnything+20.5 -11053 -110+865-1500
BetMGM+20 -10852.5 -110+900-1400
BetOnline.ag+20 -10553 -110+836-1400
betPARX+20.5 -11252.5 -113+950-2000
BetRivers+20.5 -11252.5 -114+950-2500
BetUS+20 -10553 -110+825-1400
Bovada+20 -11053 -110+750-1400
Courtside+20.5 -11052.5 -110+897-1339
DraftKings+20.5 -11252.5 -112+850-1450
DraftKings Predictions+20.5 52¢ -117 all-in51.5 56¢ -138 all-in11¢ +669 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in
Fanatics+20.5 -11053.5 -110+850-1400
FanDuel+20.5 -11252.5 -112+890-1700
Hard Rock Bet+20.5 -11052.5 -110+1000-2000
LowVig.ag+20 -10153 -108+836-1400
MyBookie.ag+20.5 -11053 -110+740-1299
Pinnacle+20 -10753 -107+738-1334
ReBet+20.5 -10953.5 -116+690-1408
theScore Bet+20.5 -11553.5 -115+900-1800

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +20.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): Fanatics +20.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · BetMGM +20 at -108 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +20.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Charlotte to win · +850 at DraftKings
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +900 (0.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +850 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-2.6%).
Off the band
the Over 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 52.5 at -112 (0.9%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +20.5, only $12 available; Over 52.5, only $49 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $346 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMemphis by 19.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++27.5+2279
FPI+16.5+592
Sagarin+15.5+566
Massey+18.5+781
Market (18 books)+20.0+1211
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.057.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +20.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+850+862priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at Missouri
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Missouri +5.5
should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Missouri →
Market
Florida by 5.5
The Four
SP+
Florida by 2.5
FPI
Florida by 7.5
Sagarin
Florida by 3
Massey
Florida by 3.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 4.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 4.5opened Florida by 4.5now Florida by 5.5SunTue

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
54.91.7 pts under the market
Massey
57.71 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.30.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.3opened 56.5now 56.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢57.5 -107 50¢—-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -11056.5 -113+179-217
All 21 books
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢57.5 -107 50¢—-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -10957 -110+170-220
BetAnything+5 -11057 -110+170-200
BetMGM+5 -10856.5 -112+170-210
BetOnline.ag+5 -11057.5 -110+174-200
betPARX+5.5 -10957 -110+170-220
BetRivers+5.5 -11057 -112+170-220
BetUS+5 -11057 -110+170-200
Bovada+5.5 -11057 -110+180-220
Caesars+5 -10957 -110+172-205
Courtside+4.5 -11056.5 -110+174-200
DraftKings+5.5 -11556.5 -112+170-205
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in57.5 50¢ -108 all-in35¢ +171 all-in68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics+5 -11057 -110+175-215
FanDuel+4.5 -10556.5 -115+168-205
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11056.5 -115+170-220
LowVig.ag+5 -10657.5 -108+174-200
MyBookie.ag+5 -11057 -110+174-218
Pinnacle+5.5 -11056.5 -113+179-217
ReBet+5.5 -11656.5 -119+170-222
theScore Bet+5.5 -11556.5 -105+175-210

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +5.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): Kalshi +5.5 at 50¢ (-0.3%) · BetMGM +5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · Caesars +5 at -109 (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
Missouri to win · +171 at Caesars
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Missouri to win): Fanatics +175 (-0.9%) · Caesars +172 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or BetMGM +171 (35¢ on the app) (-1.5%) · FanDuel +168 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or Caesars 57 at -110 (-1.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $12 available; Missouri Tigers ML, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+124
FPI+7.5+272
Sagarin+3.0+144
Massey+3.5+152
Market (19 books)+5.5+197
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.556.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers +5.5-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+171+182-1.4%
TotalUnder 56.5-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.7.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Virginia -2.5
should be Virginia -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore Florida State →
Market
Virginia by 2.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Virginia by 6.5
FPI
Virginia by 3
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Florida State by 1
Nasty Number
Virginia by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 2.5opened Virginia by 2.5now Virginia by 2.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.94.4 pts over the market
Massey
51.3on the market
Nasty Number
53.62.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.6opened 51.5now 51.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+2.5 -10551.5 -105+117-142
Pinnacle+2.5 +10151.5 -110+121-142
All 20 books
Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+2.5 -10551.5 -105+117-142
Bally Bet+2.5 -11051.5 -109+112-137
BetAnything+2.5 -11051 -110+120-140
BetMGM+2.5 -10251.5 -105+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10551.5 -105+122-142
betPARX+2.5 -11051.5 -109+112-137
BetRivers+2.5 -11251.5 -110+112-139
BetUS+2.5 -10551.5 -105+120-140
Bovada+3 -12051.5 -110+120-140
Courtside+2.5 -10551.5 -106+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 -10551.5 -108+124-148
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in51.5 52¢ -117 all-in45¢ +113 all-in58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 +10051.5 -110+120-145
FanDuel+2.5 -10651.5 -106+115-138
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11051.5 -110+110-135
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10151.5 -103+122-142
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11051.5 -110+116-143
Pinnacle+2.5 +10151.5 -110+121-142
ReBet+2.5 -10951.5 -109+114-146
theScore Bet+2.5 -10551.5 -105+115-135

Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -2.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-2.4%) · DraftKings or TOM -2.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Virginia to win · -142 at TOM
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Virginia to win): FanDuel -138 (-2.4%) · TOM -142 (-3.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -145 (-3.6%) · DraftKings -148 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-4.4%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -106 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F, 48% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+213
FPI+3.0+140
SagarinPK+100
Massey-1.0-107
Market (18 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.553.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Cavaliers -2.5-115-103-2.7%
MoneylineVirginia Cavaliers ML-142-125-3.1%
TotalOver 51.5-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Georgia State -1.5
should be Georgia State -1.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Georgia State by 1.5
The Four
SP+
Old Dominion by 1
FPI
Georgia State by 5
Sagarin
Georgia State by 7
Massey
Old Dominion by 2.5
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia State by 1.5opened Old Dominion by 1now Georgia State by 1SunTue

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
SP+ pace
52.2on the market
Massey
56.14 pts over the market
Weather
-1.066% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.21.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 50.5now 52SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia State -1.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia State): Fanatics -2 at -110 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -106 (-3.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Georgia State to win · -125 at DraftKings
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Georgia State to win): FanDuel -122 (-2.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -125 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 52 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -108 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia State).

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+107
FPI-5.0-183
Sagarin-7.0-235
Massey+2.5+127
Market (18 books)-1.5-114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.053.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers -1.5-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML-125-112-2.6%
TotalOver 52.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Under 46
should be 44.4 · getting 1.5 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 19.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore North Dakota State →
Market
North Dakota State by 19
The Four
SP+
North Dakota State by 22.5
FPI
North Dakota State by 18
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 17.5
Massey
North Dakota State by 14
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 18.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 18.5opened North Dakota State by 20now North Dakota State by 19SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
396.8 pts under the market
Massey
42.73.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.95 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.9opened 46now 46SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wyoming +19.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Wyoming): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +18.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · Fanatics +18 at -110 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +18.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.0%).
Blowout line
Wyoming to win · +750 at FanDuel
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wyoming to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +775 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +750 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 43. That's 5.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -106 (1.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (0.8%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -19.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Wyoming).

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 18.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1294
FPI-18.0-738
Sagarin-17.5-722
Massey-14.0-471
Market (18 books)-19.0-1070
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.040.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWyoming Cowboys +19.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineWyoming Cowboys ML+750+794priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James Madison
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pm
James Madison -18.5
should be James Madison -19.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore James Madison →
Market
James Madison by 18.5
The Four
SP+
James Madison by 24.5
FPI
James Madison by 21
Sagarin
James Madison by 20.5
Massey
James Madison by 18
Nasty Number
James Madison by 19.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 19.5opened James Madison by 18.5now James Madison by 18.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
58.62.9 pts over the market
Massey
57.31.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
571.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57opened 54.5now 55.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.5 -131 55¢56.5 -107 50¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-18.5 -10855.5 -113-1073+636
All 21 books
James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.5 -131 55¢56.5 -107 50¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Bally Bet-18 -11056.5 -109-1667+800
BetAnything-18.5 -11056 -110-1100+700
BetMGM-18.5 -10856.5 -105-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-18.5 -11256.5 -105-1100+709
betPARX-18 -11056.5 -109-1667+800
BetRivers-18 -11056.5 -110-1667+800
BetUS-18.5 -11056 -110-1100+700
Bovada-18.5 -11056 -105-1100+650
Caesars-18.5 -10755.5 -118-1200+700
Courtside-18.5 -10355.5 -110-987+706
DraftKings-18.5 -10555.5 -112-1050+675
DraftKings Predictions-18.5 52¢ -117 all-in54.5 56¢ -138 all-in91¢ -1328 all-in12¢ +614 all-in
Fanatics-18.5 -11055.5 -110-1100+700
FanDuel-18.5 -11056.5 -108-1300+760
Hard Rock Bet-17.5 -11556.5 -110-1600+800
LowVig.ag-18.5 -10856.5 -103-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-18.5 -11055.5 -110-1099+630
Pinnacle-18.5 -10855.5 -113-1073+636
ReBet-19.5 -11455.5 -109-1099+600
theScore Bet-18.5 -11056.5 -105-1600+800

Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -18.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings -18.5 at -105 (0.6%) · Caesars -18.5 at -107 (0.1%) · BetMGM -18.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -18.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -18.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
James Madison to win · -967 (90¢) at Kalshi
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (James Madison to win): Kalshi 90¢ (-1.0%) · BetMGM -1000 (-1.3%) · DraftKings -1050 (-1.7%) · Fanatics -1100 (-2.1%) · Caesars -1200 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (-1.8%) · Caesars 55.5 at -118 (-2.2%) · Kalshi or FanDuel 56.5 at -107 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd +17.5, only $21 available; Under 56.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 19.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1708
FPI-21.0-1084
Sagarin-20.5-969
Massey-18.0-737
Market (19 books)-18.5-972
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.057.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -18.5-105-107+0.6%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-967-860priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.7.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at Nebraska
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
Nebraska -14.5
should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 14.5
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 15
FPI
Nebraska by 20
Sagarin
Nebraska by 15.5
Massey
Nebraska by 13
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 150.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 15opened Nebraska by 14.5now Nebraska by 14.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.41 pts over the market
Massey
51.50.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢52.5 -112 51¢-660 86¢+490 16¢
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
All 21 books
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢52.5 -112 51¢-660 86¢+490 16¢
Bally Bet-14.5 -11252 -112-670+460
BetAnything-14.5 -11052 -110-700+500
BetMGM-14.5 -10852.5 -108-650+500
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -11352 -113-700+505
betPARX-14.5 -11252 -112-670+460
BetRivers-14.5 -11352 -113-670+460
BetUS-15 -11052 -110-700+500
Bovada-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+475
Caesars-14.5 -11052.5 -106-675+475
Courtside-14.5 -11052.5 -103-646+508
DraftKings-14.5 -11252.5 -105-675+490
DraftKings Predictions-14.5 52¢ -117 all-in51.5 55¢ -132 all-in86¢ -733 all-in17¢ +426 all-in
Fanatics-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+500
FanDuel-14.5 -11052.5 -110-690+480
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11052.5 -105-650+450
LowVig.ag-14.5 -10952 -112-700+505
MyBookie.ag-14.5 -11052 -110-752+490
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
ReBet-15.5 -11452.5 -109-800+470
theScore Bet-14.5 +10052.5 -110-800+500

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska -14.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): BetMGM -14.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars -14.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -14.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Nebraska to win · -690 at FanDuel
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): BetMGM or Kalshi -650 (-2.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars -675 (-2.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -690 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 52.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Caesars 52.5 at -106 (-1.7%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.0-549
FPI-20.0-882
Sagarin-15.5-553
Massey-13.0-424
Market (19 books)-14.5-615
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNebraska Cornhuskers -14.5-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineNebraska Cornhuskers ML-690-535priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New Mexico
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
New Mexico -22.5
should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore New Mexico →
Market
New Mexico by 22.5
The Four
SP+
New Mexico by 34
FPI
New Mexico by 27.5
Sagarin
New Mexico by 25
Massey
New Mexico by 19.5
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 241.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 24opened New Mexico by 22.5now New Mexico by 22.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
48.10.5 pts under the market
Massey
55.16.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.63 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 48.5now 48.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi—49.5 +101 48¢-1684 94¢+1242 7¢
Pinnacle-22.5 -11248.5 -113-2018+967
All 20 books
New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi—49.5 +101 48¢-1684 94¢+1242 7¢
Bally Bet-23.5 -11248.5 -113—+1300
BetAnything-22.5 -11049 -110-2250+1050
BetMGM-22.5 -11048.5 -118-2000+1200
BetOnline.ag-22.5 -11549 -110——
betPARX-23.5 -11248.5 -113—+1300
BetRivers-23.5 -11348.5 -114—+1300
BetUS-22.5 -11549 -110-2250+1150
Bovada-23 -10549 -105-2000+950
Courtside-22.5 -11048.5 -113-1882+1177
DraftKings-22.5 -11248.5 -115-2100+1100
DraftKings Predictions-22.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in94¢ -2401 all-in8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics-22.5 -11049 -110-1800+1050
FanDuel-22.5 -11048.5 -112-2800+1160
Hard Rock Bet-23.5 -11049.5 -105—+1300
LowVig.ag-22.5 -11149 -108——
MyBookie.ag-22.5 -11049 -110-2000+940
Pinnacle-22.5 -11248.5 -113-2018+967
ReBet-22.5 -11648.5 -114-2273+870
theScore Bet-22.5 -11048.5 -115—+1300

Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -22.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (New Mexico): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -22.5 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings -22.5 at -112 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -22.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
New Mexico to win · -1684 (94¢) at Kalshi
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): Kalshi 94¢ (-0.5%) · Fanatics -1800 (-0.8%) · BetMGM -2000 (-1.3%) · DraftKings -2100 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 94¢ on the app (-2401 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 48¢ (0.3%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -118 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 2430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.0—
FPI-27.5-2271
Sagarin-25.0-1842
Massey-19.5-866
Market (18 books)-22.5-1847
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos -22.5-110-117+1.5%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML-1684-1548priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
South Carolina -2.5
should be South Carolina -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 2.5TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
South Carolina by 1.5
FPI
South Carolina by 2.5
Sagarin
South Carolina by 4
Massey
South Carolina by 1.5
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 2.5opened South Carolina by 3now South Carolina by 2.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3 to South Carolina by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.53.5 pts over the market
Massey
52.50.5 pts under the market
Weather
-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.50.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.5opened 54now 53SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-2.5 -11753 -110-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢53.5 -112 51¢—+118 44¢
Pinnacle-3 -10253.5 -107-149+127
All 22 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-2.5 -11753 -110-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢53.5 -112 51¢—+118 44¢
Bally Bet-3 -10653.5 -109-150+123
BetAnything-2.5 -11053 -110-155+135
BetMGM-3 -10253.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11753 -110-155+135
betPARX-3 -10653.5 -109-150+123
BetRivers-3 -10753.5 -110-152+123
BetUS-2.5 -11553.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -10553.5 -110-150+130
Caesars-3 -11753.5 -112-148+126
Courtside-3 -10353.5 -106-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10553.5 -108-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 48¢ -100 all-in60¢ -163 all-in43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics-3 -10553.5 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -12053.5 -112-142+118
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12053.5 -110-150+125
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11353 -108-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 -11053.5 -110-150+122
Pinnacle-3 -10253.5 -107-149+127
ReBet-2.5 -12553.5 -114-153+120
theScore Bet-2.5 -12053.5 -115-140+120

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina -2.5 · -117 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): TOM -2.5 at -117 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -3 at -102 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -3 at -105 (-3.2%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 54¢ (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · -142 at FanDuel
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): FanDuel -142 (-2.3%) · Caesars -148 (-3.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -150 (-3.6%) · DraftKings or TOM -155 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-5.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 53 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-2.0%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.6%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or Caesars 53.5 at -112 (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Kentucky). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +2.5, only $5 available; South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $347 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-113
FPI-2.5-125
Sagarin-4.0-170
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-2.5-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.053.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks -2.5-117-107-2.2%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML-142-129-2.3%
TotalOver 53.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus; total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pm
Oregon State -6
should be Oregon State -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
Oregon State by 6
The Four
SP+
Oregon State by 6.5
FPI
Oregon State by 4.5
Sagarin
Oregon State by 1
Massey
Oregon State by 6
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 60.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 6opened Oregon State by 5now Oregon State by 6SunTue

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 5 to Oregon State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
62
The Four
SP+ pace
58.13.8 pts under the market
Massey
59.52.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
58.83.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 61now 62SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Colorado State +6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +6.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings +6 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Colorado State to win · +200 at Fanatics
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): Fanatics +200 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +195 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +190 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 33¢ on the app (+186 all-in) (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 62.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 62.5 at -115 (-0.4%) · Fanatics 62 at -110 (-0.5%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+209
FPI+4.5+176
Sagarin+1.0+104
Massey+6.0+201
Market (18 books)+6.0+223
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.058.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +6.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+200+201-0.2%
TotalUnder 62.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.4.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
BYU -6.5
should be BYU -6.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →
Market
BYU by 6.5
The Four
SP+
BYU by 6
FPI
BYU by 6.5
Sagarin
BYU by 0.5
Massey
BYU by 1.5
Nasty Number
BYU by 6.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number BYU by 6.5opened BYU by 6now BYU by 6.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48
The Four
SP+ pace
47.40.4 pts under the market
Massey
51.43.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
48.40.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 49now 48SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.547.5 -116 52¢+208 31¢-250 70¢
Pinnacle+6.5 -10548 -107+203-249
All 20 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.547.5 -116 52¢+208 31¢-250 70¢
Bally Bet+6.5 -11347.5 -107+215-275
BetMGM+6.5 -11047.5 -110+200-235
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -10747.5 -110+207-250
betPARX+6.5 -11347.5 -107+215-275
BetRivers+6.5 -11447.5 -108+200-275
BetUS+6.5 -11047.5 -110+210-250
Bovada+6.5 -10548 -110+205-245
Caesars+6.5 -10847.5 -117+200-245
Courtside+6.5 -10847.5 -113+210-244
DraftKings+6.5 -10847.5 -115+205-250
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in48.5 49¢ -104 all-in33¢ +186 all-in70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics+6.5 -10547.5 -115+200-245
FanDuel+6.5 -11047.5 -108+195-240
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11047.5 -105+220-275
LowVig.ag+6.5 -10347.5 -108+207-250
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11048 -110+210-265
Pinnacle+6.5 -10548 -107+203-249
ReBet+6.5 -10948.5 -111+204-270
theScore Bet+6.5 -10547.5 -105+210-250

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU +6.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars +6.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +6.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
TCU to win · +206 at DraftKings
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (TCU to win): Kalshi 31¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings +205 (-0.6%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +200 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +195 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 33¢ on the app (+186 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi 47.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -117 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $317 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.0+201
FPI+6.5+212
Sagarin+0.5+101
Massey+1.5+113
Market (18 books)+6.5+231
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTCU Horned Frogs +6.5-105-101-0.9%
MoneylineTCU Horned Frogs ML+206+210-0.5%
TotalOver 48.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 4.7.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Georgia Southern -2.5
should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Georgia Southern by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Georgia Southern by 0.5
FPI
Georgia Southern by 2
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 1
Massey
Georgia Southern by 1.5
Nasty Number
Georgia Southern by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Southern by 2opened Georgia Southern by 2.5now Georgia Southern by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
58.14.2 pts over the market
Massey
53.60.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.91.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.9opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi+2.554.5 -107 50¢+109 46¢-136 56¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
All 20 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi+2.554.5 -107 50¢+109 46¢-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2 -11453.5 -112+100-125
BetAnything+2.5 -11054 -110+110-130
BetMGM+2.5 -10854.5 -105+110-135
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11054 -110+113-133
betPARX+2 -11453.5 -112+100-125
BetRivers+2 -11553.5 -113+100-125
BetUS+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
Bovada+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
Courtside+2.5 -11054.5 -103+116-132
DraftKings+2.5 -11054.5 -105+114-135
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in48¢ -100 all-in55¢ -132 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10554 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11053.5 -115+110-132
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -10553.5 -110+100-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10654 -108+113-133
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11054 -110+110-135
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
ReBet+2.5 -11453.5 -119+108-138
theScore Bet+2.5 -11054.5 -110+110-130

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +2.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · +110 at FanDuel
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): DraftKings +114 (-0.4%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 50¢ (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 29% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Southern by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-1.0-103
Massey+1.5+110
Market (18 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.055.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5-105-104-0.2%
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+110+116-1.3%
TotalOver 54.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at Rice
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
UTSA -11.5
should be UTSA -11.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 11.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Rice →
Market
UTSA by 11.5
The Four
SP+
UTSA by 12
FPI
UTSA by 11.5
Sagarin
UTSA by 11
Massey
UTSA by 13.5
Nasty Number
UTSA by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTSA by 11.5opened UTSA by 10now UTSA by 11.5SunTue

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 10 to UTSA by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
59.94.1 pts over the market
Massey
58.52.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.072% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.22.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.2opened 54.5now 56SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+11.556.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+11.5 -10756 -109+352-484
All 20 books
Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+11.556.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Bally Bet+11 -11055.5 -110+350-500
BetAnything+11.5 -11056 -110+340-450
BetMGM+11.5 -11055.5 -112+360-450
BetOnline.ag+11.5 -11056 -110+344-440
betPARX+11 -11055.5 -110+350-500
BetRivers+11 -11255.5 -112+350-500
BetUS+11.5 -11056 -110+345-440
Bovada+11.5 -11056 -110+355-490
Courtside+11.5 -11055.5 -113+360-440
DraftKings+11.5 -11255.5 -115+350-455
DraftKings Predictions+11.5 51¢ -113 all-in54.5 56¢ -138 all-in21¢ +335 all-in82¢ -526 all-in
Fanatics+11.5 -11056 -110+360-475
FanDuel+11.5 -10555.5 -108+385-520
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -10555.5 -110+350-500
LowVig.ag+11.5 -10656 -108+344-440
MyBookie.ag+11.5 -11055.5 -110+340-461
Pinnacle+11.5 -10756 -109+352-484
ReBet+11.5 -11155.5 -116+340-500
theScore Bet+12.5 -11056.5 -105+400-600

Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA -11.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UTSA): DraftKings or BetMGM -11.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · Fanatics -11.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -11.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -11.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UTSA to win · -468
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UTSA to win): BetMGM or DraftKings -450 (-1.9%) · Fanatics -475 (-2.7%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-3.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -520 (82¢ on the app) (-4.0%).
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 58. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 55.5 at -108 (1.4%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -112 (0.5%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 72% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UTSA).

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +11.5, only $112 available; Under 56.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 11.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+404
FPI+11.5+398
Sagarin+11.0+382
Massey+13.5+452
Market (18 books)+11.5+431
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.058.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners -11.5-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML-468-398priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.4.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Boise State -20.5
should be Boise State -20.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 20.5
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 19
FPI
Boise State by 20.5
Sagarin
Boise State by 19.5
Massey
Boise State by 13.5
Nasty Number
Boise State by 20.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 20.5opened Boise State by 20now Boise State by 20.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.32.1 pts under the market
Massey
51.3on the market
Nasty Number
50.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 50.5now 51.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Utah State +20.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Utah State): Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +20.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +887 at DraftKings
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah State to win): BetMGM +950 (0.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +920 (0.1%) · Fanatics or Caesars +850 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 10¢ on the app (+733 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-2.2%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 20.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-829
FPI-20.5-914
Sagarin-19.5-865
Massey-13.5-454
Market (19 books)-20.5-1284
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.550.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +20.5-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+887+914priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at Clemson
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Miami -16.5
should be Miami -16.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Miami by 16.5
The Four
SP+
Miami by 18.5
FPI
Miami by 16
Sagarin
Miami by 8
Massey
Miami by 9.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 16.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 16.5opened Miami by 17now Miami by 16.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48
The Four
SP+ pace
42.75.3 pts under the market
Massey
49.91.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.068% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
45.32.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.3opened 49now 48.5SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -107 50¢—+573 14¢-719 87¢
Pinnacle+16.5 -10648.5 +100+553-882
All 19 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -107 50¢—+573 14¢-719 87¢
Bally Bet+17 -11447.5 -108+600-1000
BetAnything+16.5 -11047.5 -110+550-800
BetMGM+16.5 -10847.5 -112+575-750
BetOnline.ag+16.5 -10547.5 -110+574-825
betPARX+17 -11447.5 -108+600-1000
BetRivers+17 -11547.5 -109+600-1000
BetUS+16.5 -11047.5 -110+565-825
Bovada+16.5 -11048 -105+575-900
Courtside+16.5 -10647.5 -110+572-761
DraftKings+16.5 -10847.5 -112+550-800
Fanatics+16.5 -10547.5 -115+575-850
FanDuel+16.5 -10447.5 -112+580-880
Hard Rock Bet+16.5 -10547.5 -110+600-1000
LowVig.ag+16.5 -10147.5 -108+574-825
MyBookie.ag+16.5 -11048 -110+547-839
Pinnacle+16.5 -10648.5 +100+553-882
ReBet+16.5 -10948.5 -111+520-1000
theScore Bet+16.5 -10547.5 -105+550-900

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson +16.5 · -104 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel +16.5 at -104 (-0.9%) · Fanatics +16.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +16.5 at -107 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Clemson to win · +574 at FanDuel
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi +580 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +550 (-1.0%).
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -110
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 47.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or FanDuel 47.5 at -108 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $13 available; Under 46.5, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 16.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+797
FPI+16.0+581
Sagarin+8.0+284
Massey+9.5+315
Market (18 books)+16.5+763
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.045.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers +16.5-104-100-0.9%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML+574+594priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USC
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
USC -9
should be USC -9 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Washington than the bookmore USC →
Market
USC by 9
The Four
SP+
USC by 8
FPI
USC by 12.5
Sagarin
USC by 10.5
Massey
USC by 6
Nasty Number
USC by 90.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 9opened USC by 10now USC by 9SunTue

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 10 to USC by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58
The Four
SP+ pace
59.61.7 pts over the market
Massey
56.21.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 56.5now 57.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢57.5-360 77¢+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9 -11357.5 -117-382+291
All 21 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢57.5-360 77¢+280 25¢
Bally Bet-10 -10958.5 -108-435+325
BetAnything-9.5 -11059 -110-375+297
BetMGM-9.5 -11058.5 -110-375+300
BetOnline.ag-9 -11659 -115-375+299
betPARX-10 -10958.5 -108-435+325
BetRivers-10 -11058.5 -109-435+320
BetUS-9.5 -11558.5 -110-375+300
Bovada-9.5 -11058 -110-380+290
Caesars-9.5 -11258.5 -107-360+285
Courtside-9.5 -11558.5 -110-364+303
DraftKings-9.5 -11558.5 -112-375+295
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 54¢ -127 all-in78¢ -401 all-in25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics-9.5 -11558 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -11558.5 -106-375+290
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -12058.5 -110-425+325
LowVig.ag-9 -11259 -114-375+299
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11058.5 -110-370+280
Pinnacle-9 -11357.5 -117-382+291
ReBet-9.5 -11957.5 -119-391+265
theScore Bet-9.5 -11558.5 +100-400+300

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington +9.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Washington): Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics +9.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · Caesars, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Washington to win · +299 at BetMGM
We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Washington to win): BetMGM +300 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +295 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +290 (-1.2%) · Caesars +285 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 25¢ (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 58.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 58.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Caesars 58.5 at -113 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 49¢ (-1.9%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.0-286
FPI-12.5-421
Sagarin-10.5-352
Massey-6.0-200
Market (19 books)-9.0-348
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.057.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington Huskies +9.5-103-101-0.5%
MoneylineWashington Huskies ML+299+309-0.6%
TotalUnder 58.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at Rutgers
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Indiana -24
should be Indiana -25 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Rutgers →
Market
Indiana by 24
The Four
SP+
Indiana by 26.5
FPI
Indiana by 26
Sagarin
Indiana by 16.5
Massey
Indiana by 22
Nasty Number
Indiana by 250.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 25opened Indiana by 24now Indiana by 24SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
64.68.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.7on the market
Nasty Number
60.24.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.2opened 56now 56SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—56.5 -107 50¢+1464 6¢-2042 95¢
Pinnacle+24 +10056 -113+1101-2484
All 21 books
Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—56.5 -107 50¢+1464 6¢-2042 95¢
Bally Bet+24 -11255.5 -112+1300—
BetAnything+24 -11056 -110——
BetMGM+24 -10855.5 -112+1400-2500
BetOnline.ag+24 -10555.5 -108——
betPARX+24 -11255.5 -112+1300—
BetRivers+24 -11355.5 -113+1300—
BetUS+24 -10555.5 -110+1150-2400
Bovada+24.5 -11556 -115+1000-2500
Caesars+24 -10755.5 -117——
Courtside+24.5 -11355.5 -113+1290-2122
DraftKings+24.5 -11555.5 -115+1200-2400
DraftKings Predictions+24.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 48¢ -100 all-in8¢ +900 all-in95¢ -3233 all-in
Fanatics+24.5 -11556 -110+1300-2500
FanDuel+24.5 -11855.5 -114+1400—
Hard Rock Bet+23.5 +10055.5 -110+1300—
LowVig.ag+24 -10155.5 -106——
MyBookie.ag+24 -11056 -110+980-2273
Pinnacle+24 +10056 -113+1101-2484
ReBet+25.5 -11955.5 -116+840-2500
theScore Bet+24.5 -11555.5 -115+1200-3000

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -24.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Indiana): BetMGM -24 at -112 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -104 (-0.2%) · Caesars -24 at -113 (-0.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -24.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -24.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Indiana to win · -2500 at DraftKings
We make it 95 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Kalshi 95¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -2400 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 95¢ on the app (-3233 all-in) (-2.4%) · FanDuel -4000 (-3.0%).
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -112 (2.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (1.9%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars 55.5 at -117 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Indiana).

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 2540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++26.5+2008
FPI+26.0+1954
Sagarin+16.5+594
Massey+22.0+1205
Market (19 books)+24.0+2170
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.060.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndiana Hoosiers -24.0-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineIndiana Hoosiers ML-2500-1754priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sun Oct 4

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Colts at Commanders, Commanders +3.5.
GameThe call
Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral
Commanders +3.5
should be Commanders +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars · was +4.5
▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Commanders +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Colts by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Colts by 2.51.1 pts our side
FPI
Colts by 1.52.2 pts our side
Sagarin
a pick'em3.7 pts our side
Massey
Colts by 12.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Colts by 30.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Commanders. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colts by 3opened Colts by 4.5now Colts by 3.5SatSunMonTue

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Commanders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
Massey
52.25.2 pts over the market
FPI
47.60.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.92.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 47.5now 47SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3.5 -10547 -110+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢47.5 -103 49¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10447 -110+162-190
All 26 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3.5 -10547 -110+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢47.5 -103 49¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -10947 -107+160-195
BetAnything+3.5 -11047 -110+165-195
BetMGM+3.5 -10847 -110+160-200
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10847 -110+165-190
betPARX+3.5 -10947 -107+160-195
BetRivers+3.5 -10947 -107+160-195
BetUS+3.5 -11047 -110+163-190
Bovada+3.5 -11047 -115+165-195
Caesars+3.5 -10547.5 -105+155-190
Courtside+3.5 -10847.5 +100+163-188
DraftKings+3.5 -10847.5 -102+160-192
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 50¢ -108 all-in48.5 47¢ +104 all-in37¢ +156 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11047 -110+160-195
FanDuel+3.5 -11047.5 -102+166-198
Fliff+3.5 -11547.5 -105+150-190
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11046.5 -115+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11046.5 -115+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11046.5 -115+160-190
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10447 -107+165-190
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11047 -110+153-198
Pinnacle+3.5 -10447 -110+162-190
Polymarket+3.5 +10047.5 +100+178-186
ReBet+3.5 -11047.5 -109+160-190
theScore Bet+3.5 -11046.5 -115+170-200

Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +3.5 · -105 at Caesars
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Commanders): Caesars or TOM +3.5 at -105 (2.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -107 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (1.6%).
Not Nasty
Commanders to win · +160 at DraftKings
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Commanders to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +166 (2.4%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +160 (1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +156 (37¢ on the app) (0.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (-0.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (-0.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Commanders +3.5 · -105 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from +3.0 to +3.5.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts -3.5, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Nick Cross (S, Commanders) and 3 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
We settle onColts by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.5+125
FPI+1.5+108
SagarinPK-100
Massey+1.0+108
Market (22 books)+3.5+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.049.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington Commanders +3.5-105-117+2.8%
MoneylineWashington Commanders ML+160+150+1.5%
TotalOver 47.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Under 52
should be 50.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 52.0. Massey and FPI say under by 2.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 2.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 20.5 pts our side
FPI
Jaguars by 0.53.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Bengals by 11.6 pts our side
Massey
Jaguars by 13.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 2opened Bengals by 3now Bengals by 2.5SatSunMonTue

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Under -115
The Four
Massey
48.83.2 pts under the market
FPI
49.72.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.32.7 pts under the market
Under 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 51.5now 52SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11552 -105-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢51.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11251 -109-143+124
All 26 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11552 -105-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢51.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11051.5 -109-134+110
BetAnything-2.5 -11051.5 -110-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -11051 -112-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11952 -105-140+120
betPARX-2.5 -11051.5 -109-134+110
BetRivers-2.5 -11051.5 -109-134+110
BetUS-2 -12052 -105-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11551 -110-145+125
Caesars-2.5 -11851.5 -107-141+119
Courtside-2.5 -11551.5 +100-145+127
DraftKings-2.5 -11551.5 -102-148+124
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 51¢ -113 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11551 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -10851.5 -105-132+112
Fliff-2.5 -11551.5 -105-140+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11551 -110-140+120
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11551 -110-140+120
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11551 -110-140+120
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11252 -102-140+120
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11051 -110-145+113
Pinnacle-2.5 -11251 -109-143+124
Polymarket-2.5 -11351.5-133+127
ReBet-2.5 -12550.5 -125-139+118
theScore Bet-2.5 -11051.5 -105-135+115

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (0.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.2%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +120 at BetMGM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings +124 (1.3%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +120 (0.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +119 (0.3%) · FanDuel +112 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.1%).
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 50. That's 2.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -115 (0.3%) · BetMGM 51 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 51.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F, 21% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Colbie Young (WR, Bengals), Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 5 more.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.0-118
FPI+0.5+102
Sagarin-1.0-105
Massey+1.0+107
Market (22 books)-2.5-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.049.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+120+118+0.5%
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +2.5-105-106+0.2%
TotalUnder 52.0-115-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.2 consensus.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Under 48
should be 47 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Chiefs by 4TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 4.5
FPI
Chiefs by 5
Sagarin
Chiefs by 4
Massey
Chiefs by 3
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 4.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 4.5opened Chiefs by 4.5now Chiefs by 4SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 4.5 to Chiefs by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
42.95.1 pts under the market
FPI
44.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.64.4 pts under the market
Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.6opened 48.5now 48SunTue

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4 -10548 -110+165-205
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢47.5 -112 51¢+159 37¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -11148 -102+179-211
All 26 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4 -10548 -110+165-205
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢47.5 -112 51¢+159 37¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+4.5 -10848 -112+180-220
BetAnything+4.5 -11048 -110+175-215
BetMGM—47.5 -112+180-220
BetOnline.ag+4 -10548 -110+177-205
betPARX+4.5 -10848 -112+180-220
BetRivers+4.5 -10848 -112+180-220
BetUS+4 -10548 -110+175-205
Bovada+4 -10547.5 -115+175-210
Caesars+4.5 -10847.5 -114+184-225
Courtside+4.5 -10847.5 -113+189-220
DraftKings+4.5 -10847.5 -115+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 51¢ -113 all-in37¢ +156 all-in69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics+4.5 -11547.5 -110+175-215
FanDuel+4.5 -10847.5 -110+184-220
Fliff+4.5 -11047.5 -110+175-230
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-220
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-220
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-220
LowVig.ag+4 +10048 -107+177-205
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11048 -110+174-228
Pinnacle+4.5 -11148 -102+179-211
Polymarket+4.5 -104——-194
ReBet+4.5 -11047.5 -120+182-218
theScore Bet+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-215

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -4.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -4.5 at 49¢ (-1.0%) · Fanatics -4.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · TOM -4 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -4.5 at -112 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -205 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): TOM -205 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 66¢ (-1.7%) · Fanatics -215 (-2.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -220 (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -225 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 44. That's 4.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (0.2%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under. The line went from +4.5 to +4.0.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $465 available; Under 48.5, only $281 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $116 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Cooper McDonald (LB, Chiefs) and 1 more.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +172 here against +198 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+4.5+190
FPI+5.0+203
Sagarin+4.0+181
Massey+3.0+145
Market (22 books)+4.0+172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.043.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -4.5-103+101-1.0%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-205-193-1.4%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus; moneyline +172 here against +198 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm
Panthers +3.5
should be Panthers +3.5 at FanDuel · was +2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Lions by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 21.4 pts our side
FPI
Lions by 2.51.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Lions by 12.6 pts our side
Massey
Lions by 30.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Lions by 3.50.2 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Panthers. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 3.5opened Lions by 2.5now Lions by 3.5SatSunMonTue

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Panthers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
55.35.3 pts over the market
FPI
49.8on the market
Weather
-1.060% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.61.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 50.5now 50SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3.5 -10550 -115+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢50.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10650.5 -107+160-187
All 26 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3.5 -10550 -115+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢50.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+4 -11050 -113+155-190
BetAnything+3.5 -11050 -110+165-195
BetMGM+3.5 -10550.5 -108+160-190
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10850 -115+165-190
betPARX+4 -11050 -113+155-190
BetRivers+4 -11050 -113+155-190
BetUS+3.5 -11050 -115+163-190
Bovada+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-185
Caesars+3.5 -10850.5 -106+164-197
Courtside+3.5 -10850.5 -110+153-176
DraftKings+3.5 -10850.5 -112+150-180
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in40¢ +138 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-195
FanDuel+3.5 -10550.5 -110+164-196
Fliff+3.5 -11550.5 -110+155-200
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10350 -113+165-190
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11050.5 -110+154-200
Pinnacle+3.5 -10650.5 -107+160-187
Polymarket+3.5 +10050.5 -108+170-178
ReBet+3.5 -10950.5 -110+161-192
theScore Bet+3.5 -10550.5 -110+165-195

Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars +3.5 at -107 (0.3%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.9%).
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +160 at BetMGM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Panthers to win): Kalshi 36¢ (0.6%) · Caesars or FanDuel +164 (0.3%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +160 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +150 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 50.5 at -106 (-1.0%) · TOM 50 at -115 (-1.4%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 3 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+120
FPI+2.5+123
Sagarin+1.0+104
Massey+3.0+149
Market (22 books)+3.5+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.051.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers +3.5-105-109+0.8%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+160+162-0.3%
TotalOver 50.0-115-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Cowboys +2.5
should be Cowboys +2 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5TOM, -118
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 20.7 pts our side
FPI
Cowboys by 13.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Texans by 0.52.1 pts our side
Massey
Texans by 30.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Texans by 20.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Cowboys. Massey at Texans by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 2.5SunMonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.21.2 pts over the market
FPI
47.70.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.50.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 48now 48SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11848 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢48.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11647.5 -116-147+128
All 26 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11848 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢48.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11247.5 -108-136+112
BetAnything-2.5 -11548 -110-145+125
BetMGM-2.5 -11547.5 -110-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11848 -110-145+125
betPARX-2.5 -11247.5 -108-136+112
BetRivers-2.5 -11247.5 -108-136+112
BetUS-2 -12048 -110-145+125
Bovada-3 +10048 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -11348.5 -104-141+120
Courtside-2.5 -11548.5 -103-139+122
DraftKings-2.5 -11548.5 -105-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 50¢ -108 all-in59¢ -157 all-in44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -12048 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -11547.5 -110-142+120
Fliff-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11547.5 -115-140+120
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11547.5 -115-140+120
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11547.5 -115-140+120
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11648 -107-145+125
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11548 -110-148+116
Pinnacle-2.5 -11647.5 -116-147+128
Polymarket-2.5 -11348.5 +104-133+127
ReBet-2.5 -12547.5 -120-142+121
theScore Bet-2.5 -11548.5 -105-140+120

Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +2.5 · -102 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.4%) · BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -102 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.2%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-0.5%).
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · +125 at Fanatics
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): Fanatics +125 (1.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +120 (0.2%) · Kalshi 44¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-0.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Kalshi 48.5 at -115 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars 48.5 at -117 (-2.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +2.5 · -102 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys), Jake Hummel (LB, Texans), Jonathan Bullard (DT, Cowboys).

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.0-116
FPI+1.0+104
Sagarin-0.5-101
Massey-3.0-149
Market (22 books)-2.5-139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML+125+119+1.2%
SpreadDallas Cowboys +2.5-102-105+0.7%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Jets +3
should be Jets +3 at TOM
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 20.9 pts our side
FPI
Bears by 1.51.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Bears by 74.2 pts against us
Massey
Bears by 62.8 pts against us
Nasty Number
Bears by 30.1 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Jets. Sagarin at Bears by 7 and Massey at Bears by 6 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 3now Bears by 3MonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM
The Four
Massey
43.1on the market
FPI
40.92.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
421 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42opened 43now 43MonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
TOM-3 -12043 -110-175+145
Kalshi-3.542.5 -116 52¢-182 63¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3 -11643 -107-172+151
All 26 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
TOM-3 -12043 -110-175+145
Kalshi-3.542.5 -116 52¢-182 63¢+146 39¢
Bally Bet-3 -11842.5 -109-175+140
BetAnything-3 -11543 -110-160+140
BetMGM-3.5 +10043 -108-175+145
BetOnline.ag-3 -12043 -110-175+153
betPARX-3 -11842.5 -109-175+140
BetRivers-3.5 -10442.5 -109-175+140
BetUS-3 -12043 -110-175+150
Bovada-3 -12043 -110-175+150
Caesars-3 -11742.5 -117-176+149
Courtside-3.5 -10242.5 -113-166+145
DraftKings-3.5 -10242.5 -115-170+142
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in42.5 55¢ -132 all-in65¢ -203 all-in42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics-3.5 +10043 -110-175+145
FanDuel-3.5 -10242.5 -118-176+148
Fliff-3.5 +10042.5 -120-190+150
Hard Rock Bet-3 -12043 -110-180+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -12043 -110-180+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -12043 -110-180+150
LowVig.ag-3 -11643 -107-175+153
MyBookie.ag-3 -12043 -110-187+144
Pinnacle-3 -11643 -107-172+151
Polymarket—43.5 +100—+156
ReBet-3.5 -10942.5 -120-179+151
theScore Bet-3 -11543.5 +100-165+140

Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets +3.0 · +100 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jets): DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (1.1%) · TOM +3 at +100 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.7%) · Caesars +3 at -104 (0.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Jets to win · +145 (39¢) at Kalshi
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Jets to win): Caesars or FanDuel +149 (1.0%) · Kalshi, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +146 (0.4%) · DraftKings +142 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars or Kalshi 42.5 at -103 (-1.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 43 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $238 available; Chicago Bears -3.5, only $383 available; New York Jets +3.5, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Shemar Turner (DT, Bears).

New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.0-200
FPI-1.5-188
Sagarin-7.0-397
Massey-6.0-347
Market (22 books)-3.0-167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Jets +3.0+100-104+1.0%
MoneylineNew York Jets ML+145+143+0.3%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Giants +1.5
should be Giants +0.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cardinals by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Cardinals by 0.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cardinals by 1.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Giants by 3.55.2 pts our side
FPI
Cardinals by 0.51.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Giants by 6.57.8 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em1.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Cardinals by 0.51.2 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Giants. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cardinals by 0.5opened Giants by 2.5now Cardinals by 1.5SatSunMonTue

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.3on the market
FPI
42.32.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.3opened 43.5now 44.5SunTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+105 47¢-126 54¢
Pinnacle+1 +10244.5 -102+106-122
All 26 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+105 47¢-126 54¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -11044 -114+100-121
BetAnything+2 -11044.5 -110+105-125
BetMGM+1.5 -10844 -120+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1 -10144.5 -110+105-125
betPARX+1.5 -11044 -114+100-121
BetRivers+1.5 -11044 -114+100-121
BetUS+1 -10544.5 -110——
Bovada+1.5 -11044 -115+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -11444.5 -105+103-122
Courtside+1.5 -11044.5 -106+107-122
DraftKings+1.5 -11044.5 -108+105-125
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 51¢ -113 all-in45.5 47¢ +104 all-in48¢ -100 all-in55¢ -132 all-in
Fanatics+1.5 -11044.5 -105+100-120
FanDuel+1.5 -11043.5 -115+108-126
Fliff+1.5 -11544.5 -105+100-125
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -11044 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+1.5 -11044 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+1.5 -11044 -115+105-125
LowVig.ag+1 +10444.5 -107+105-125
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11044.5 -110-102-125
Pinnacle+1 +10244.5 -102+106-122
Polymarket+1.5 -10444.5 +100+108-113
ReBet+1.5 -11044.5 -110+102-120
theScore Bet+1.5 -11044.5 -105+110-130

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (0.5%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +1.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 51¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%) · Caesars +1.5 at -114 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Giants to win): FanDuel +108 (1.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +105 (1.2%) · Caesars +103 (0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings Predictions +100 (48¢ on the app) (-0.1%).
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 44.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · Caesars or Fanatics 44.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · BetMGM 44 at -110 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F, 45% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.6 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCardinals by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-178
FPI+0.5+100
Sagarin-6.5-251
MasseyPK-100
Market (22 books)+1.5+110
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.543.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+105+100+1.1%
SpreadNew York Giants +1.5-110-110+0.1%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
49ers to win
our data says 60 in 100 · -145
▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 2.5TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 41.6 pts our side
FPI
49ers by 8.56 pts our side
Sagarin
49ers by 41.5 pts our side
Massey
49ers by 52.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
49ers by 30.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 3opened 49ers by 3now 49ers by 2.5SatSunMonTue

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.12.4 pts under the market
FPI
49.31.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.20.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.2opened 46.5now 47.5MonTue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -12047.5 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢48.5 -103 49¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11947.5 -116-151+130
All 26 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -12047.5 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢48.5 -103 49¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-3 -10747.5 -107-143+118
BetAnything-2.5 -12048.5 -110-150+130
BetMGM-3 -10247.5 -110-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12047.5 -110-145+125
betPARX-3 -10747.5 -107-143+118
BetRivers-3 -10747.5 -107-143+118
BetUS-3 +10048 -110-145+125
Bovada-3 +10048 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -12047.5 -107-148+125
Courtside-3 +10247.5 -108-152+133
DraftKings-3 +10047.5 -110-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 50¢ -108 all-in62¢ -178 all-in44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -12048 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -12047.5 -105-152+128
Fliff-2.5 -12547.5 -105-155+120
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12047.5 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -12047.5 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -12047.5 -110-150+130
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11647.5 -107-145+125
MyBookie.ag-3 +10047.5 -110-155+121
Pinnacle-2.5 -11947.5 -116-151+130
Polymarket-2.5 -11747.5-138+133
ReBet-2.5 -13347.5 -110-149+126
theScore Bet-3 +10047.5 -105-145+125

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -2.5 · -120 at Caesars
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -2.5 at 52¢ (0.9%) · DraftKings -3 at +100 (0.3%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -120 (0.0%) · BetMGM -3 at -102 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
49ers to win · -145 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (49ers to win): TOM -145 (0.8%) · Caesars -148 (0.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -150 (0.0%) · FanDuel -152 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -155 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 48.5 at 52¢ (-0.6%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (-0.8%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars 47.5 at -113 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -145 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 83°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · 49ers, now Not Nasty.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $160 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-185
FPI-8.5-350
Sagarin-4.0-183
Massey-5.0-210
Market (22 books)-2.5-139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.547.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-145-150+0.8%
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -2.5-120-120+0.0%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Rams -3
should be Rams -3 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Rams by 3TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 1.5
FPI
Rams by 3
Sagarin
Rams by 2.5
Massey
Rams by 1
Nasty Number
Rams by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 3opened Rams by 3now Rams by 3Tue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.92.4 pts over the market
FPI
44.81.3 pts over the market
Weather
-1.054% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
44.30.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.3opened 44.5now 43.5Tue

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
TOM+3 -11043.5 -110+132-162
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢43.5 -112 51¢+134 41¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+3 -10343.5 -103+145-168
All 26 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
TOM+3 -11043.5 -110+132-162
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢43.5 -112 51¢+134 41¢-167 61¢
Bally Bet+3 -11443.5 -114+135-165
BetAnything+3 -11043.5 -110+142-162
BetMGM+3 -10843.5 -108+138-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11043.5 -110+142-162
betPARX+3 -11443.5 -114+135-165
BetRivers+3 -11443.5 -114+135-165
BetUS+3 -11043.5 -110+138-160
Bovada+3 -10543 -115+145-170
Caesars+3 -11243.5 -112+134-159
Courtside+3 -11043.5 -103+139-159
DraftKings+3 -11243.5 -105+136-162
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 55¢ -132 all-in42.5 54¢ -127 all-in41¢ +133 all-in62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics+3 -11043.5 -110+135-165
FanDuel+3 -11043.5 -115+132-156
Fliff+3.5 -13043.5 -115+135-175
Hard Rock Bet+3 -10543.5 -110+135-160
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3 -10543.5 -110+135-160
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3 -10543.5 -110+135-160
LowVig.ag+3 -10543.5 -107+142-162
MyBookie.ag+3 -11043.5 -110+129-166
Pinnacle+3 -10343.5 -103+145-168
Polymarket+3.5 -12243.5 +104+150-156
ReBet+3.5 -13343.5 -120+135-159
theScore Bet+3 -11043.5 +100+140-165

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Eagles): BetMGM +3 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · +138 at BetMGM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Eagles to win): BetMGM +138 (0.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +136 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or Caesars +134 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel or TOM +133 (41¢ on the app) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 45. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 43.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi or Caesars 43.5 at -112 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Rams). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, only $183 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Tanner McKee (Eagles), Out; Cole Payton (Eagles), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams), Jaylen Watson (CB, Rams).

TOM: moneyline +138 here against +154 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+110
FPI+3.0+140
Sagarin+2.5+122
Massey+1.0+103
Market (22 books)+3.0+138
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.544.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML+138+138+0.0%
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles +3.0-110-109-0.3%
TotalOver 43.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: moneyline +138 here against +154 consensus.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Ravens -11.5
should be Ravens -11.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 11.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 11.5
FPI
Ravens by 11.5
Sagarin
Ravens by 10.5
Massey
Ravens by 11
Nasty Number
Ravens by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 11.5opened Ravens by 11now Ravens by 11.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.72.2 pts over the market
FPI
45.11.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.059% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
44.40.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.4opened 43.5now 43.5SunTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 -10543.5 -110——
Kalshi-11.5 -107 50¢43.5 -107 50¢-660 86¢+530 15¢
Pinnacle-11.5 -10643.5 -103-649+461
All 26 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 -10543.5 -110——
Kalshi-11.5 -107 50¢43.5 -107 50¢-660 86¢+530 15¢
Bally Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-715+500
BetAnything-11.5 -11043.5 -110-700+500
BetMGM-11.5 -10843.5 -108-650+500
BetOnline.ag-11.5 -10743.5 -108-650+476
betPARX-11.5 -11043.5 -110-715+500
BetRivers-11.5 -11043.5 -110-715+500
BetUS-11.5 -11043.5 -110-650+475
Bovada-11.5 -11043.5 -105-650+450
Caesars-11.5 -10643.5 -110-700+480
Courtside-11.5 -10643.5 -108-715+545
DraftKings-11.5 -10843.5 -110-750+525
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 51¢ -113 all-in42.5 54¢ -127 all-in86¢ -733 all-in16¢ +456 all-in
Fanatics-11.5 -11043.5 -105-700+500
FanDuel-11.5 -11043.5 -112-770+530
Fliff-11.5 -11043.5 -110-845+505
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+500
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+500
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+500
LowVig.ag-11.5 -10243.5 -105-650+476
MyBookie.ag-11.5 -11043.5 -110-847+500
Pinnacle-11.5 -10643.5 -103-649+461
Polymarket-10.5 -11343.5 +100-614—
ReBet-12.5 -10943.5 -110-800+550
theScore Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -115-900+550

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Titans): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +11.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +11.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-2.9%) · TOM +11.5 at -115 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · +500 at BetMGM
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel, Kalshi or DraftKings +530 (2.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +500 (1.7%) · Caesars +480 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 16¢ on the app (+456 all-in) (0.4%).
Off the band
the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 45. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 43.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 43.5 at -107 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $157 available; Tennessee Titans ML, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 11.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-11.5-450
FPI-11.5-441
Sagarin-10.5-433
Massey-11.0-434
Market (22 books)-11.5-609
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.544.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +11.5-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+500+443priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 43.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bills -6.5
should be Bills -6.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 6.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 6
FPI
Bills by 6.5
Sagarin
Bills by 5
Massey
Bills by 5.5
Nasty Number
Bills by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 6.5opened Bills by 7now Bills by 6.5SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
Massey
46.32.7 pts under the market
FPI
49.2on the market
Nasty Number
47.71.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.7opened 48.5now 49SunTue

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-6.5 -11549 -110-295+235
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢48.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+240 28¢
Pinnacle-7 +10448.5 -114-302+245
All 26 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-6.5 -11549 -110-295+235
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢48.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+240 28¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -11748.5 -108-315+250
BetAnything-6.5 -11548.5 -110-300+240
BetMGM-6.5 -11848.5 -108-325+270
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11549 -112-295+241
betPARX-6.5 -11748.5 -108-315+250
BetRivers-6.5 -11748.5 -108-315+250
BetUS-6.5 -11549 -110-295+245
Bovada-6.5 -11549 -110-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -11748.5 -110-320+250
Courtside-7 -10348.5 -108-290+246
DraftKings-7 -10548.5 -110-298+240
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in74¢ -317 all-in28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11549 -110-320+250
FanDuel-6.5 -11548.5 -110-330+265
Fliff-6.5 -12048.5 -110-345+245
Hard Rock Bet-7 -10548.5 -110-300+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -10548.5 -110-300+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -10548.5 -110-300+250
LowVig.ag-7 +10449 -109-295+241
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11548.5 -110-300+222
Pinnacle-7 +10448.5 -114-302+245
Polymarket-6.5 -10848.5-270+257
ReBet-6.5 -12048.5 -110-290+238
theScore Bet-6.5 -11548.5 -110-300+250

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -6.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bills): FanDuel, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -7 at -105 (-3.0%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -118 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -295 at TOM
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Bills to win): TOM or DraftKings -295 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or Fanatics -317 (74¢ on the app) (-3.1%) · BetMGM -325 (-3.5%) · FanDuel -330 (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 49 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 50¢ (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Bills).

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Josh Allen (Bills), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Greg Van Roten (G, Patriots), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-245
FPI-6.5-254
Sagarin-5.0-210
Massey-5.5-228
Market (22 books)-6.5-282
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.047.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -6.5-115-104-2.4%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-295-270-1.7%
TotalUnder 49.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Packers -4
should be Packers -3.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 4, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Packers by 4TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Packers by 2.5
FPI
Packers by 6.5
Sagarin
Packers by 2
Massey
Packers by 1.5
Nasty Number
Packers by 3.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 3.5opened Packers by 3.5now Packers by 4MonTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5TOM
The Four
Massey
48.59 pts over the market
FPI
39.6on the market
Nasty Number
44.14.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.1opened 39.5now 39.5MonTue

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+4 -11039.5 -110+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -103 49¢40.5 +105 47¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+4 -11539.5 -105+165-193
All 26 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+4 -11039.5 -110+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -103 49¢40.5 +105 47¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+4 -11039.5 -114+155-195
BetAnything+4 -11039.5 -110+170-200
BetMGM+4 -11039.5 -112+165-200
BetOnline.ag+4 -11139.5 -108+165-190
betPARX+4 -11039.5 -114+155-195
BetRivers+4 -11039.5 -114+155-195
BetUS+4 -11039.5 -110+163-190
Bovada+3.5 -11039.5 -110+165-195
Caesars+4 -11339.5 -115+160-193
Courtside+4.5 -12539.5 -116+163-188
DraftKings+3.5 +10039.5 -118+160-192
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 51¢ -113 all-in39.5 51¢ -113 all-in37¢ +156 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -10539.5 -110+160-195
FanDuel+3.5 -10439.5 -110+162-194
Fliff+3.5 -11039.5 -115+155-200
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -10539.5 -110+165-195
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -10539.5 -110+165-195
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -10539.5 -110+165-195
LowVig.ag+4 -10639.5 -105+165-190
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11039.5 -110+159-206
Pinnacle+4 -11539.5 -105+165-193
Polymarket+3.539.5+178-186
ReBet+3.5 -11039.5 -120+166-198
theScore Bet+4 -10539.5 -105+170-200

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +4.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (-0.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM +4 at -110 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -104 (-1.0%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · +160 at DraftKings
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): Kalshi or BetMGM +166 (-1.3%) · FanDuel +162 (-1.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +160 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 40.5 at 47¢ (2.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (1.8%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (1.4%) · Caesars 39.5 at -115 (0.7%) · DraftKings 39.5 at -118 (0.1%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Packers).

Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $149 available; Over 39.5, only $493 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers) and 1 more.

Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.5+125
FPI+6.5+182
Sagarin+2.0-103
Massey+1.5-105
Market (22 books)+4.0+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.544.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+160+175-2.1%
TotalOver 39.5-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Green Bay Packers since 09-27 21:32; total has moved down 1.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm
Vikings -11
should be Vikings -11 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 11, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 11TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 12.5
FPI
Vikings by 11
Sagarin
Vikings by 12
Massey
Vikings by 10.5
Nasty Number
Vikings by 110.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 11opened Vikings by 10now Vikings by 11SunTue

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM
The Four
Massey
39.40.9 pts over the market
FPI
38.4on the market
Nasty Number
38.90.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.9opened 40.5now 38.5SunTue

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-11 -11538.5 -105——
Kalshi-10.538.5 -112 51¢-564 84¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-11 -10138.5 -108-570+416
All 26 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-11 -11538.5 -105——
Kalshi-10.538.5 -112 51¢-564 84¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-11 -11339.5 -108-670+475
BetAnything-11 -11039 -110-610+460
BetMGM-11 -10838.5 -110-625+475
BetOnline.ag-11 -10838.5 -107-610+452
betPARX-11 -11339.5 -108-670+475
BetRivers-11 -11339.5 -108-670+475
BetUS-11 -11038.5 -110-610+455
Bovada-10.5 -11038.5 -110-585+410
Caesars-10.5 -11038.5 -113-625+450
Courtside-10.5 -11038.5 -108-623+487
DraftKings-10.5 -11238.5 -110-650+470
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 53¢ -122 all-in39.5 50¢ -108 all-in87¢ -809 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-10.5 -11038.5 -110-600+430
FanDuel-10.5 -11539.5 -105-670+490
Fliff-10.5 -11039.5 -105-720+445
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11039 -110-700+475
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-11.5 -11039 -110-700+475
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-11.5 -11039 -110-700+475
LowVig.ag-11 -10338.5 -104-610+452
MyBookie.ag-11 -11039 -110-752+470
Pinnacle-11 -10138.5 -108-570+416
Polymarket-10.5 +100—-567—
ReBet-10.5 -11038.5 -120-676+490
theScore Bet-11.5 -11038.5 -110-750+475

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.5 · -110 at Caesars
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): Caesars or Fanatics -10.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · BetMGM -11 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · TOM -11 at -115 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Vikings to win · -564 (84¢) at Kalshi
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): Kalshi 84¢ (-3.5%) · Fanatics -600 (-4.3%) · Caesars or BetMGM -625 (-4.8%) · DraftKings -650 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -670 (-5.6%).
Off the band
the Over 38.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 38.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 38.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 38.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%) · Caesars 38.5 at -113 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (-3.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Vikings).

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $351 available; Over 38.5, only $25 available; Under 38.5, only $376 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Josh Oliver (TE, Vikings), Nick Samac (C, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-12.5-469
FPI-11.0-436
Sagarin-12.0-460
Massey-10.5-424
Market (22 books)-11.0-545
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.538.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Vikings -10.5-110-104-1.4%
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML-564-438priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 38.5-105-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-26 15:12; total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Seahawks -7
should be Seahawks -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →
Market
Seahawks by 7TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 7
FPI
Seahawks by 7.5
Sagarin
Seahawks by 6.5
Massey
Seahawks by 10
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 7.5opened Seahawks by 6.5now Seahawks by 7SunTue

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
40.42.1 pts under the market
FPI
40.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.42.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.4opened 44now 42.5SunTue

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-7 -11542.5 -115-330+255
Pinnacle-7.5 +10643 -106-335+269
All 25 books
Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-7 -11542.5 -115-330+255
Bally Bet-7 -11043 -114-360+265
BetAnything-7 -11543 -110-340+270
BetMGM-7 -11243 -108-350+275
BetOnline.ag-7 -11542.5 -112-330+267
betPARX-7 -11043 -114-360+265
BetRivers-7 -11043 -114-360+265
BetUS-7 -11542.5 -110-330+270
Bovada-7 -11543 -110-340+270
Caesars-7 -11242.5 -118-335+265
Courtside-7 -11342.5 -116-345+287
DraftKings-7 -11542.5 -118-355+280
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 50¢ -108 all-in42.5 55¢ -132 all-in79¢ -426 all-in28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11543 -110-340+265
FanDuel-7 -11043.5 -106-350+280
Fliff-6.5 -12542.5 -120-360+255
Hard Rock Bet-7 -11043 -110-350+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -11043 -110-350+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -11043 -110-350+275
LowVig.ag-7 -11042.5 -109-330+267
MyBookie.ag-7.5 +10043 -110-380+275
Pinnacle-7.5 +10643 -106-335+269
Polymarket-7.5 +113—-300+285
ReBet-7.5 -10543.5 -109-350+280
theScore Bet-7 -11042.5 -125-340+270

Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.0 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): FanDuel -7 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM -7 at -112 (-1.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -7 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -330 at TOM
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): TOM -330 (-1.6%) · Caesars -335 (-1.9%) · Fanatics -340 (-2.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -350 (-2.6%) · DraftKings -355 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 42.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (0.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars 42.5 at -102 (0.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 43 at -110 (0.1%) · TOM 42.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Seahawks). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $166 available; Under 42.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks).

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.0-280
FPI-7.5-319
Sagarin-6.5-252
Massey-10.0-404
Market (22 books)-7.0-316
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.540.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -7.0-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-330-302-1.6%
TotalUnder 42.5-105-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-26 16:16.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mon Oct 5

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at Saints
GameThe call
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints
NFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm
Under 48.5
should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. Massey and FPI say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 2.5TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
Saints by 2.5
FPI
Saints by 4
Sagarin
Saints by 3.5
Massey
Saints by 3
Nasty Number
Saints by 30.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Saints by 3opened Saints by 2.5now Saints by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM, Under -108
The Four
Massey
44.14.4 pts under the market
FPI
435.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.55 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.5opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-2.5 -12048.5 -112-148+123
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢48.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-3 +10648.5 -103-147+130
All 25 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-2.5 -12048.5 -112-148+123
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢48.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetAnything-2.5 -12048.5 -110-148+128
BetMGM-2.5 -11848.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12048.5 -110-148+128
betPARX-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetRivers-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetUS-3 +10048.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-2.5 -12048 -115-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -11848.5 -105-150+127
Courtside-2.5 -12548.5 -110-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10248.5 -112-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 54¢ -127 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -11848.5 -102-148+126
Fliff-2.5 -12048.5 -105-155+120
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10548 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10548 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10548 -110-150+130
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11648.5 -107-148+128
MyBookie.ag-3 +10048.5 -110-156+122
Pinnacle-3 +10648.5 -103-147+130
Polymarket-2.548.5 +108-144—
ReBet-2.5 -13347.5 -110-153+125
theScore Bet-2.5 -12048.5 -110-145+125

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -2.5 · -120 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (-0.6%) · TOM -2.5 at -120 (-1.0%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 53¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -102 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Saints to win · -148 at FanDuel
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Saints to win): FanDuel or TOM -148 (-0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM -150 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -155 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. That's 5.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -120 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints -2.5, only $26 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $62 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-137
FPI-4.0-192
Sagarin-3.5-175
Massey-3.0-158
Market (21 books)-2.5-142
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.543.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints -2.5-120-115-1.0%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML-148-144-0.7%
TotalUnder 48.5-108-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks4-6-2.32 units · -23% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.3 ptsbeat the close on 6 of 11 posted picks
Open5calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units
LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00
WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95
LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00
LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units
LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00
LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00
WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units
WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91
LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00
LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00
LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00
LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00
WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89
WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91
WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91
WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40
LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00
LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00
LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00
WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85
LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00
WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95
LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00
LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00
LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95
LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)4-640.0%-2.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty4-450.0%-0.3 usmall sample
A Little Nasty21-2942.0%-10.4 u
Not Nasty193 games——no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-29 18:06.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey9.97113
FPI10.57169
The market10.65230
SP+10.66169
Sagarin12.11220

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.07115
Massey1.001.500.00113
SP+1.001.000.00115
Sagarin1.000.000.07139

The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.

The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 31 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market10.4648
Massey10.6931
nfelo10.8648
Sagarin10.8848
FPI11.2633

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.0331
Massey1.000.000.0031
Sagarin1.001.500.0431
nfelo1.000.000.0131

The line archive, 48 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 43 games. The close misses the final by 10.46, the open by 10.60, our raw ratings number by 10.93, Pinnacle's close by 10.45. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.00, Polymarket 9.54, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.13.

The head start. 108 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 25, average 0.42 points; the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped 4, went quiet 55.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

SettingGamesOur missMarket'sPicks
as it runs31110.2310.530-1
ratings 0%31110.6310.530-0
ratings 5%31110.5610.530-0
ratings 15%31110.4210.530-0
ratings 45%31110.0510.531-1
Sagarin half a vote31110.2310.530-1
Sagarin no vote31110.2310.530-1
FPI a vote and a half31110.2310.530-1
Massey a vote and a half31110.2310.530-1

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.36Sides: pts vs close, 23 bets, beat it 65%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 108 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 108 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 55. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
Ohio at Kent StateOhio -3.5-3.5-4.5+1.0no call
Old Dominion at Georgia StateGeorgia State +2.52.50.9+1.6no call
Purdue at IllinoisIllinois Fighting -9.5-9.5-10+0.5same side
San José State at Hawai'iUnder57.551.8+5.7no call
UCF at HoustonUCF +10.510.511.2-0.7same side
UL Monroe at South AlabamaOver54.555.9+1.4no call
Washington at USCOver53.556.4+2.9no call
West Virginia at Iowa StateIowa State +22-2.7+4.7same side
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansDallas +2.52.52.5+0.0no call
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTampa Bay +3.53.54-0.5no call
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksUnder43.542.5+1.0no call
New York Jets at Chicago BearsNew York +333+0.0no call
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+12013.434-46 (42%)22-25 (47%)
Massey12312.627-34 (44%)8-20 (29%)
The blend12512.826-36 (42%)10-19 (34%)

NFL, 38 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.8 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey3411.09-12 (43%)4-4 (50%)
FPI3210.59-2 (82%)6-0 (100%)
The blend3410.18-4 (67%)3-1 (75%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

72 priced · 5 Nasty Picks · 13 a little nasty · 5 damn near nasty · audit clean

We read 72 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.

What's changed since 9:45am

  • OffEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen dropped off. It was UMass Minutemen -6.0.
  • MovedOhio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes price moved from -110 to -115.
  • MovedBaylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils is now Baylor Bears +4.5, was Baylor Bears +4.0.
  • NewCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats is now a pick: Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 at -104.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 2.8Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State Pantherstoward Georgia State Panthersagainst the public
  • → 2.5Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado Buffaloestoward Colorado Buffaloesagainst the public
  • → 2.0UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguarstoward UL Monroe Warhawksagainst the public
  • → 1.4North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricanetoward North Texas Mean Greenagainst the public
  • → 1.4Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawkstoward Bowling Green Falconsagainst the public
  • → 1.3Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougarstoward Washington State Cougarswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
10.39Points off per game at that weight
10.39The market on its own
170Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 170 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey14410.12
The market27810.61
SP+16910.66
FPI20210.68
nfelo4810.86
Sagarin26811.89

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.5124-12650%
1.5 to 3.03-827%
3.0 to 5.05-645%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 857137 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.15 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
DraftKings3681.45
Kalshi1781.44
FanDuel3961.44
BetOnline.ag3571.32
LowVig.ag3491.32
BetRivers3881.31
ReBet1731.25
MyBookie.ag2881.23
Bally Bet1801.17
betPARX1801.16
BetMGM3541.14
BetUS2891.11
TOM3061.08
Caesars3071.08
Fanatics3231.05
Bovada3551.05
theScore Bet1771.00
Pinnacle3560.98
Hard Rock Bet1790.92
Courtside1380.89
BetAnything1620.81
Fliff1280.75
Hard Rock Bet (OH)460.59
Hard Rock Bet (FL)460.54
Polymarket350.54

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 2 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated yesterday
  • Sagarin updated 2 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated today
  • nfelo updated today
Log the bets you took

Bet something we didn't pick? Add it here
Saved
Built 6:06 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 3281.