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Buck Nasty

Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 9:15 am · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now
College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pmFPISun 8:30amSagarinSun 10:18amMasseySun 12:04amAll 4 in the Sauce. 142 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pmFPISun 6:02amSagarinTue 9:06amMasseyFri 8:05amAll 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey have seen the last games, SP+ and Sagarin haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +8should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMNasty Pick strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›5.8% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Kansas State at CincinnatiCincinnati +7-110 · 4.4% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›4.4% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +5.5-110 at FanDuel · 4.3% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›4.3% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Colorado State at UTSAColorado State +13-110 · 3.9% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›3.9% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Navy at UABUAB +11.5-110 at FanDuel · 3.7% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›3.7% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Wisconsin at Penn StateMoved our way · 1 ptPenn State -10.5should be Penn State -12.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 4:00pm Buck's case ›1.7% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.James Madison at Old DominionJames Madison -3should be James Madison -4.5 · getting 1.5 ptsDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›1.3% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Tulsa at ArkansasTulsa +9.5should be Tulsa +7 · getting 2.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›8.1% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.
17 more, weaker reads
Oklahoma State at West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 59.5should be 57 · getting 2.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›3.3% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.UCLA at MarylandUnder 57.5should be 55.4 · getting 2.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Air Force at NevadaNevada +4.5should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›2.8% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Clemson at CaliforniaClemson -1.5should be Clemson -2.5 · getting 1 pt at KalshiA Little Nasty strengthFri 9:30pm Buck's case ›2.6% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Ball State at Kent StateBall State +3.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›2.1% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.UNLV at AkronAkron +13.5should be Akron +12.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›2.0% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Army at TempleTemple +3.5should be Temple +2 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthFri 3:00pm Buck's case ›2.0% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Louisiana at CharlotteOver 51.5should be 53.2 · getting 1.7 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Ole Miss at FloridaUnder 58.5should be 56.9 · getting 1.6 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Utah at Iowa StateIowa State +12should be Iowa State +11.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›1.5% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.App State at NC StateMoved our way · 1 ptApp State +13.5should be App State +12 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›1.5% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Arizona at Washington StateUnder 49.5should be 47.9 · getting 1.6 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.South Florida at Bowling GreenUnder 53.5should be 52.1 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Florida Atlantic at UL MonroeMoved our way · 1 ptUL Monroe +13.5should be UL Monroe +13 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›1.1% edge on FPI and Massey. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.TCU at UCFUnder 51.5should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.Vanderbilt at AuburnUnder 52.5should be 51.5 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Sagarin haven't spoken.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.

Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Tulsa +9.5 (Tulsa at Arkansas) at 8.1% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Under 59.5, up 1 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Moved closer since the 8:31am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 8:31am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • Clemson at California Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pm · Sniff of Nasty now
    Nasty Pick at Clemson -1.5: 2.4 cents short at today's line, was 4.0.The price from -110 to -103. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

Today

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.0.
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans
NFL 12:00pm
Titans +7
should be Titans +7 at DraftKings · was +5.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.0: all 4 ratings our side, 4.2% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →
Market
Eagles by 7TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 61.1 pts our side
FPI
Eagles by 52 pts our side
Sagarin
Eagles by 51.8 pts our side
Massey
Eagles by 6.50.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Eagles by 70.1 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 7opened Eagles by 5.5now Eagles by 7SatSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Titans is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.55 pts over the market
FPI
40.40.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.42.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.4opened 38.5now 39.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 38.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
TOM+7 -10839.5 -110+267-342
Kalshi+7.5 -126 54¢39.5 -116 52¢+280 25¢-322 75¢
Pinnacle+7.5 -12040 -104+284-333
All 24 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
TOM+7 -10839.5 -110+267-342
Kalshi+7.5 -126 54¢39.5 -116 52¢+280 25¢-322 75¢
Bally Bet+7 -10739.5 -110+265-345
BetAnything+7 -11039.5 -110+260-330
BetMGM+7 -10239.5 -110+275-350
BetOnline.ag+7 -10839.5 -110+276-342
betPARX+7 -10739.5 -110+265-345
BetRivers+7 -10739.5 -110+265-345
BetUS+7.5 -12039.5 -110+275-340
Bovada+7 -11040 -110+275-350
Caesars+7 -10939.5 -109+270-335
Courtside57.5 -1882+267-316
DraftKings+7 -10239.5 -112+260-325
Fanatics+7 -11039.5 -115+275-350
FanDuel+7 -11039.5 -112+280-350
Fliff+7.5 -12039.5 -120+285-405
Hard Rock Bet+7 -10539.5 -110+275-350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+7 -10539.5 -110+275-350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+7 -10539.5 -110+275-350
LowVig.ag+7 -10639.5 -107+276-342
MyBookie.ag+7 -11039.5 -110+285-360
Pinnacle+7.5 -12040 -104+284-333
ReBet+7 -11039.5 -110+285-360
theScore Bet+7 -11039.5 -115+290-380

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -102 (4.2%) · TOM +7 at -108 (2.8%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.3%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (1.4%).
A Little Nasty
Titans to win · +267 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 26. Where, best first (Titans to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +280 (3.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +275 (3.3%) · Caesars +270 (3.0%) · TOM +267 (2.8%) · DraftKings +260 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 39.5 at -109 (0.5%) · BetMGM or TOM 39.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 39.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or Kalshi 39.5 at -115 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +279 here against +315 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+6.0+206
FPI+5.0+183
Sagarin+5.0+188
Massey+6.5+216
Market (22 books)+7.0+279
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.542.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +7.0-102-121+4.2%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+267+233+2.8%
TotalOver 39.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 13:02; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus; moneyline +279 here against +315 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos
NFL 3:05pm
Jaguars +2.5
should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars
A Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Broncos by 2.5TOM, -119
The Four
nfelo
Broncos by 11.7 pts our side
FPI
Jaguars by 35.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Broncos by 11.6 pts our side
Massey
Jaguars by 13.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Broncos by 20.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Broncos by 2opened Broncos by 3now Broncos by 2.5SatMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.31.2 pts under the market
FPI
41.83.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
432.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43opened 44.5now 45.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11945.5 -115-150+125
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢45.5 -112 51¢-155 59¢+129 42¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11445.5 -105-146+132
All 24 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11945.5 -115-150+125
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢45.5 -112 51¢-155 59¢+129 42¢
Bally Bet-3 -10545 -110-152+125
BetAnything-3 +10045.5 -110-150+130
BetMGM-3 -10245.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11945.5 -115-150+130
betPARX-3 -10545 -110-152+125
BetRivers-3 -10545 -110-152+125
BetUS-3 +10045.5 -115-155+134
Bovada-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -12245.5 -110-150+127
Courtside43.5 +115-145+127
DraftKings-2.5 -12045.5 -110-148+124
Fanatics-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -12045.5 -105-148+126
Fliff-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+120
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11545.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11545.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11545.5 -110-145+125
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11645.5 -113-150+130
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11545.5 -110-151+128
Pinnacle-2.5 -11445.5 -105-146+132
ReBet-3 -11045 -110-151+128
theScore Bet-3 -10545.5 -105-150+130

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +2.5 at +105 (0.4%) · BetMGM +3 at -118 (-0.5%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (-0.6%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +125 at FanDuel
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): Kalshi 42¢ (0.1%) · Caesars or FanDuel +127 (-0.2%) · BetMGM, Fanatics, TOM or DraftKings +125 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 45.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%) · Caesars 45.5 at -109 (-0.5%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-1.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 22% chance of rain.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Courtside has the total at 43.5 while Pinnacle is at 45.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBroncos by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-111
FPI+3.0+143
Sagarin-1.0-113
Massey+1.0+108
Market (22 books)-2.5-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.543.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +2.5+105+103+0.4%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+125+128-0.6%
TotalUnder 45.5-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears
NFL 12:00pm
Bears to win
our data says 67 in 100 · -198
A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Bears. Market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. At -198 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 8.5
FPI
Bears by 8.5
Sagarin
Bears by 6
Massey
Bears by 3.5
Nasty Number
Bears by 5.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 5.5opened Bears by 5.5now Bears by 4.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
Massey
50.93.9 pts over the market
FPI
41.65.4 pts under the market
Weather
-4.520 mph wind, 64% chance of rain, takes 4.5 points off
Nasty Number
41.75.3 pts under the market
Under 47 is a weather call. 20 mph wind and 64% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.7opened 49.5now 47MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
TOM-4.5 -11047 -110-218+178
Kalshi-4.5 -107 50¢47.5 +101 48¢-208 66¢+181 34¢
Pinnacle-4.5 +10047 -110-207+183
All 24 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
TOM-4.5 -11047 -110-218+178
Kalshi-4.5 -107 50¢47.5 +101 48¢-208 66¢+181 34¢
Bally Bet-5 -10847.5 -109-220+175
BetAnything-4.5 -11047 -110-220+180
BetMGM-4.5 -11047 -110-210+175
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -11047 -110-215+183
betPARX-5 -10847.5 -109-220+175
BetRivers-5 -10847.5 -109-220+175
BetUS-4.5 -11047 -110-215+183
Bovada-4 -11547.5 +100-220+180
Caesars-4.5 -10947.5 -110-218+183
Courtside54.5 -274-194+168
DraftKings-4.5 -11247.5 -110-198+164
Fanatics-4.5 -11047.5 -105-215+175
FanDuel-4.5 -11047.5 -105-215+180
Fliff-4.5 -11547.5 -110-240+180
Hard Rock Bet-5 -11047 -110-220+185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-5 -11047 -110-220+185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-5 -11047 -110-220+185
LowVig.ag-4.5 -10547 -107-215+183
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11047.5 -110-212+178
Pinnacle-4.5 +10047 -110-207+183
ReBet-4.5 -11047.5 -110-212+178
theScore Bet-4.5 -11047.5 -105-210+175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · Caesars -4.5 at -109 (-1.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -112 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Bears to win · -198 at DraftKings
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings -198 (0.1%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -208 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -215 (-1.7%) · Caesars or TOM -218 (-2.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 4.5 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 47.5 at -109 (3.8%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (3.6%) · BetMGM 47 at -108 (2.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 47.5 at -115 (2.4%) · TOM 47 at -110 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears to win · -198 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Vikings).

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-202
FPI-8.5-208
Sagarin-6.0-152
Massey-3.5-116
Market (22 books)-4.5-209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.041.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineChicago Bears ML-198-199+0.1%
SpreadChicago Bears -4.5-110-103-1.6%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-13 18:37.

TOM matches the consensus.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals
NFL 3:25pm
Cardinals +3.5
should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →
Market
Seahawks by 4TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 51.2 pts against us
FPI
Cardinals by 4.58.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Seahawks by 6.52.4 pts against us
Massey
Seahawks by 1.52.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 40.2 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Cardinals. nfelo at Seahawks by 5 and Sagarin at Seahawks by 6.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 4opened Seahawks by 5.5now Seahawks by 3.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSun

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.94.4 pts over the market
FPI
37.62.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.30.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.3opened 40.5now 40.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Cardinals spreadTotal (over)Cardinals MLSeahawks ML
TOM+4 -11540.5 -116+170-200
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢41.5 -107 50¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+4 -11241.5 +102+172-193
All 24 books
Cardinals spreadTotal (over)Cardinals MLSeahawks ML
TOM+4 -11540.5 -116+170-200
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢41.5 -107 50¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+4 -11341 -110+175-215
BetAnything+4 -11541 -110+170-200
BetMGM+4 -11041 -108+170-210
BetOnline.ag+4 -11540.5 -116+174-200
betPARX+4 -11341 -110+175-215
BetRivers+4 -11341 -110+175-215
BetUS+4 -11541 -115+170-200
Bovada+3.5 -11041 -110+165-195
Caesars+4 -11340.5 -118+174-209
Courtside57.5 -1735+174-200
DraftKings+3.5 +10040.5 -118+170-205
Fanatics+3.5 -10541 -110+165-200
FanDuel+4.5 -12041.5 -102+176-210
Fliff+4.5 -12041.5 -110+170-225
Hard Rock Bet+4 -11041 -110+180-210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+4 -11041 -110+180-210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+4 -11041 -110+180-210
LowVig.ag+4 -11040.5 -116+174-200
MyBookie.ag+4 -11040.5 -110+176-210
Pinnacle+4 -11241.5 +102+172-193
ReBet+4 -11041.5 -110+173-206
theScore Bet+3.5 -11041.5 -105+175-210

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cardinals): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (2.1%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (1.2%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (0.9%) · Caesars +4 at -113 (0.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (0.4%).
Not Nasty
Cardinals to win · +170 at DraftKings
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Cardinals to win): FanDuel +176 (2.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +174 (2.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +170 (1.7%) · Fanatics +165 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.5 · -116 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 41 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (-1.2%) · TOM 40.5 at -116 (-1.4%) · Fanatics 41 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 40.5 at -118 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 2.0 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.0+251
FPI-4.5-129
Sagarin+6.5+294
Massey+1.5+162
Market (22 books)+4.0+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.541.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArizona Cardinals +3.5+100-109+2.1%
MoneylineArizona Cardinals ML+170+158+1.7%
TotalOver 40.5-116-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers
NFL 3:05pm
Raiders +6.5
should be Raiders +6.5 at DraftKings · was +9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 6.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 60.5 pts our side
FPI
Chargers by 60.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Chargers by 81.6 pts against us
Massey
Chargers by 4.51.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Chargers by 6.50 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Raiders. Sagarin at Chargers by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 6.5opened Chargers by 9.5now Chargers by 6.5SatMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
39.54 pts under the market
FPI
40.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.83.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.8opened 44now 43.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLRaiders ML
TOM-6.5 -11543.5 -108-310+235
Pinnacle-6.5 -10643 -116-290+250
All 23 books
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLRaiders ML
TOM-6.5 -11543.5 -108-310+235
Bally Bet-6.5 -11543.5 -112-315+245
BetAnything-7 +10043.5 -108-320+250
BetMGM-6.5 -11543.5 -110-300+250
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11643.5 -108-310+252
betPARX-6.5 -11543.5 -112-315+245
BetRivers-6.5 -11543.5 -112-315+245
BetUS-7 +10043.5 -110-310+255
Bovada-6.5 -11043.5 -110-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -11743.5 -113-310+245
Courtside43.5 -108-302+256
DraftKings-6.5 -12243.5 -110-310+250
Fanatics-6.5 -11543.5 -110-300+240
FanDuel-6.5 -11543.5 -110-300+245
Fliff-6.5 -11543.5 -115-335+240
Hard Rock Bet-7 -10543.5 -110-300+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -10543.5 -110-300+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -10543.5 -110-300+250
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11343.5 -105-310+252
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11043.5 -110-300+248
Pinnacle-6.5 -10643 -116-290+250
ReBet-6.5 -12043.5 -110-300+248
theScore Bet-6.5 -11043.5 -110-320+260

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.5 · +102 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +6.5 at +102 (3.7%) · Caesars +6.5 at -104 (2.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +6.5 at -105 (2.0%).
A Little Nasty
Raiders to win · +250 at DraftKings
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +250 (2.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel +245 (2.3%) · Fanatics +240 (1.8%) · TOM +235 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -112 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -107 (1.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM 43.5 at -112 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · +102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.7 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-207
FPI-6.0-214
Sagarin-8.0-271
Massey-4.5-178
Market (22 books)-6.5-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.539.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +6.5+102-114+3.7%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+250+220+2.7%
TotalUnder 43.5-112-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers
NFL 12:00pm
Browns +9
should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +8.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Buccaneers by 9TOM, +100
The Four
nfelo
Buccaneers by 8.50.5 pts our side
FPI
Buccaneers by 9.50.3 pts against us
Sagarin
Buccaneers by 7.51.4 pts our side
Massey
Buccaneers by 63 pts our side
Nasty Number
Buccaneers by 8.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Browns. FPI at Buccaneers by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Buccaneers by 8.5opened Buccaneers by 9now Buccaneers by 9MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.53 pts over the market
FPI
40.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.51 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 41now 41.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
TOM-9 +10041.5 -110-420+310
Kalshi-7.5 -112 51¢41.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9 +10442 +104-399+333
All 24 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
TOM-9 +10041.5 -110-420+310
Kalshi-7.5 -112 51¢41.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Bally Bet-8.5 -10841 -114-420+320
BetAnything-8.5 -11041.5 -110-425+325
BetMGM-8 -11041.5 -108-425+333
BetOnline.ag-9 +10041.5 -110-420+330
betPARX-8.5 -10841 -114-420+320
BetRivers-8.5 -10841 -114-420+320
BetUS-9 +10041.5 -110-400+320
Bovada-8 -11041.5 -105-435+325
Caesars-7.5 -10941.5 -107-420+325
Courtside60.5 -3439-412+339
DraftKings-8.5 -10541.5 -108-425+330
Fanatics-8 -11041.5 -105-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 +10041.5 -102-430+340
Fliff-8.5 -10541.5 -110-500+335
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11041 -110-450+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-8.5 -11041 -110-450+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-8.5 -11041 -110-450+325
LowVig.ag-9 +10741.5 -107-420+330
MyBookie.ag-8 -11041 -110-420+330
Pinnacle-9 +10442 +104-399+333
ReBet-8 -11041.5 -109-420+330
theScore Bet-7.5 -11041.5 -105-400+300

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -120 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): BetMGM +8 at -108 (1.2%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (1.0%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (0.8%) · TOM +9 at -120 (0.5%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +340 at FanDuel
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +340 (2.9%) · BetMGM, Kalshi or DraftKings +333 (2.5%) · Caesars or Fanatics +325 (2.1%) · TOM +310 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (0.9%) · Kalshi 41.5 at 49¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics 41.5 at -105 (0.2%) · Caesars 41.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 41.5 at -108 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -120 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBuccaneers by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-287
FPI-9.5-317
Sagarin-7.5-253
Massey-6.0-207
Market (22 books)-9.0-402
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.542.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.0-120-123+0.5%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+340+291priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens
NFL 12:00pm
Saints +8.5
should be Saints +9 · giving up 0.5 pts at Caesars
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 9TOM, +101
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 9.50.7 pts against us
FPI
Ravens by 8.50.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Ravens by 9on the market
Massey
Ravens by 8.50.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ravens by 90.2 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Saints. nfelo at Ravens by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 9opened Ravens by 7.5now Ravens by 8.5SatSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Saints is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
Massey
47.52 pts over the market
FPI
46.20.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.9opened 47now 45.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
TOM-9 +10145.5 -110-430+320
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢45.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9 +10345.5 -105-400+333
All 24 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
TOM-9 +10145.5 -110-430+320
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢45.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Bally Bet-8 -11446 -112-435+320
BetAnything-8.5 -11045 -110-430+330
BetMGM-8 -11045.5 -108-425+320
BetOnline.ag-9 +10145.5 -110-430+337
betPARX-8 -11446 -112-435+320
BetRivers-8.5 -10746 -112-435+320
BetUS-9 +10045.5 -110-430+338
Bovada-8 -11545.5 -110-440+330
Caesars-8.5 -10945.5 -110-400+320
Courtside61.5 -1138-364+303
DraftKings-8.5 -10545.5 -110-375+295
Fanatics-8 -11045.5 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -10545.5 -110-420+330
Fliff-8.5 -11045.5 -115-495+335
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11045.5 -110-450+350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-8.5 -11045.5 -110-450+350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-8.5 -11045.5 -110-450+350
LowVig.ag-9 +10045.5 -107-430+337
MyBookie.ag-9 -11045.5 -110-441+340
Pinnacle-9 +10345.5 -105-400+333
ReBet-8 -11045.5 -110-400+320
theScore Bet-8 -11045.5 -110-400+300

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars +8.5 at -109 (1.9%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (0.8%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +8.5 at -115 (0.6%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (0.4%) · TOM +9 at -121 (-0.1%).
Not Nasty
Saints to win · +320 at Caesars
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Saints to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +331 (2.1%) · Fanatics +325 (1.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM or TOM +320 (1.5%) · DraftKings +295 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 45.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 45% chance of rain.

Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.5-336
FPI-8.5-280
Sagarin-9.0-307
Massey-8.5-292
Market (22 books)-9.0-411
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.546.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +8.5-109-118+1.9%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+320+296priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 45.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.7 consensus.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers
NFL 3:25pm
49ers -13.5
should be 49ers -13.5 at FanDuel
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 13TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 11.51.3 pts against us
FPI
49ers by 15.52.3 pts our side
Sagarin
49ers by 14.51.5 pts our side
Massey
49ers by 9.53.6 pts against us
Nasty Number
49ers by 13.50.4 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean 49ers. nfelo at 49ers by 11.5 and Massey at 49ers by 9.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 13.5opened 49ers by 13.5now 49ers by 13.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45TOM
The Four
Massey
45.30.3 pts over the market
FPI
46.61.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
461 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46opened 45now 45MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLDolphins ML
TOM-13 -11545 -110
Kalshi-13.5 -107 50¢44.5 -116 52¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-13.5 -10445.5 +101-1015+727
All 24 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLDolphins ML
TOM-13 -11545 -110
Kalshi-13.5 -107 50¢44.5 -116 52¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Bally Bet-13.5 -11245 -110-1000+600
BetAnything-13.5 -11045 -110-1200+750
BetMGM-13.5 -10845 -108-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-13 -11545 -110-1050+686
betPARX-13.5 -11245 -110-1000+600
BetRivers-13.5 -11245 -110-1000+600
BetUS-13.5 -11045 -110-1000+650
Bovada-13.5 -11045 -110-1200+700
Caesars-13.5 -10644.5 -117-1000+650
Courtside65.5 -2879-898+652
DraftKings-13.5 -11044.5 -115-950+625
Fanatics-13.5 -11045 -110-1000+650
FanDuel-13.5 -10545.5 -102-1000+660
Fliff-13.5 -11044.5 -115-1350+705
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11544.5 -110-1100+650
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-13.5 -11544.5 -110-1100+650
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-13.5 -11544.5 -110-1100+650
LowVig.ag-13 -10945 -107-1050+686
MyBookie.ag-13.5 -11045 -110-1133+767
Pinnacle-13.5 -10445.5 +101-1015+727
ReBet-13.5 -12045 -110-952+650
theScore Bet-13.5 -10544.5 -105-1200+700

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -13.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Caesars -13.5 at -106 (0.1%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -13.5 at -107 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · TOM -13 at -115 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
49ers to win · -1000 at Caesars
We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -950 (-5.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -1000 (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 45.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 45 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -102 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 45 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars 44.5 at -117 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -13.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-11.5-431
FPI-15.5-730
Sagarin-14.5-642
Massey-9.5-317
Market (22 books)-13.0-918
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.046.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -13.5-105-107+0.4%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-1000-556priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 45.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →
Market
Panthers by 2.5TOM, +100
The Four
nfelo
Panthers by 2
FPI
Panthers by 4.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Falcons by 2
Nasty Number
Panthers by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Panthers by 2.5opened Panthers by 2now Panthers by 2.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
49.45.9 pts over the market
FPI
38.55 pts under the market
Nasty Number
440.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44opened 44now 43.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
TOM+2.5 +10043.5 -110+123-148
Kalshi+2.5 +101 48¢43.5 -103 49¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +10243.5 -105+129-143
All 24 books
Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
TOM+2.5 +10043.5 -110+123-148
Kalshi+2.5 +101 48¢43.5 -103 49¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+3 -11443.5 -109+125-152
BetAnything+2.5 +10043.5 -110+125-145
BetMGM+3 -12043.5 -108+125-150
BetOnline.ag+2.5 +10043.5 -110+128-148
betPARX+3 -11443.5 -109+125-152
BetRivers+3 -11443.5 -109+125-152
BetUS+2 +10043.5 -110+129-150
Bovada+2.5 +10043.5 -110+125-145
Caesars+2.5 +10043.5 -110+125-148
Courtside60.5 -1501+133-152
DraftKings+2.5 +10043.5 -110+130-155
Fanatics+2.5 +10043.5 -110+125-150
FanDuel+2.5 -10443.5 -110+124-146
Fliff+2.5 +10043.5 -115+130-160
Hard Rock Bet+3 -11543.5 -110+130-150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3 -11543.5 -110+130-150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3 -11543.5 -110+130-150
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10143.5 -107+128-148
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11043.5 -110+127-150
Pinnacle+2.5 +10243.5 -105+129-143
ReBet+3 -12043.5 -110+127-150
theScore Bet+2.5 +10043.5 -105+125-145

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +2.5 · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Falcons): Kalshi, DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at +101 (-1.5%) · BetMGM +3 at -120 (-1.9%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +130 (-0.5%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics, Kalshi or FanDuel +125 (-1.4%) · TOM +123 (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 39. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (-0.3%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.9%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Panthers).

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0-109
FPI+4.5+129
SagarinPK-138
Massey-2.0-171
Market (22 books)+2.5+129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.544.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +2.5+100+107-1.6%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+130+132-0.5%
TotalOver 43.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.1 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 17:31; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 2.5
FPI
Texans by 2.5
Sagarin
Texans by 2.5
Massey
Texans by 4
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2.5opened Texans by 3now Texans by 2.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
Massey
51.45.9 pts over the market
FPI
46.30.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.93.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 46.5now 45.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
TOM-2.5 -12045.5 -108-149+124
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢45.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢+129 42¢
Pinnacle-3 +10245.5 -103-151+136
All 24 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
TOM-2.5 -12045.5 -108-149+124
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢45.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢+129 42¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11445.5 -109-148+120
BetAnything-2.5 -11545.5 -110-149+129
BetMGM-2.5 -11845 -110-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12045.5 -108-149+129
betPARX-2.5 -11445.5 -109-148+120
BetRivers-2.5 -11445.5 -109-148+120
BetUS-2 -12045.5 -110-150+129
Bovada-3 +10545.5 -105-160+135
Caesars-2.5 -11345.5 -112-152+128
Courtside45.5 -108-145+127
DraftKings-3 -10245.5 -110-148+124
Fanatics-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -11545.5 -108-154+130
Fliff-2.5 -12045.5 -110-155+125
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -12045.5 -110-150+130
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11545.5 -105-149+129
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11045.5 -110-147+125
Pinnacle-3 +10245.5 -103-151+136
ReBet-3 -10945.5 -110-150+127
theScore Bet-3 -10544.5 -115-155+135

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans -2.5 · -113 at Caesars
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texans): Caesars -2.5 at -113 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -120 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -3 at -102 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Texans to win · -149 at DraftKings
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53. Where, best first (Texans to win): DraftKings or TOM -148 (-1.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -150 (-2.0%) · Caesars -152 (-2.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -154 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 45.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 45 at -110 (2.3%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or TOM 45.5 at -107 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Caesars 45.5 at -112 (0.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-134
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-2.5-134
Massey-4.0-160
Market (22 books)-2.5-143
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.548.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans -2.5-113-111-0.4%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML-149-138-1.8%
TotalOver 45.5-108-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →
Market
Packers by 3TOM, -103
The Four
nfelo
Packers by 3.5
FPI
Packers by 2.5
Sagarin
Packers by 4.5
Massey
Packers by 2.5
Nasty Number
Packers by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 3opened Packers by 3.5now Packers by 3MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
Massey
47.33.3 pts over the market
FPI
45.81.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.083% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
45.51.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.5opened 45now 44MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
TOM+3 -10344 -115+143-173
Kalshi+3.5 -126 54¢44.5 -103 49¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3 +10344 -106+152-170
All 24 books
Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
TOM+3 -10344 -115+143-173
Kalshi+3.5 -126 54¢44.5 -103 49¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11544.5 -107+150-186
BetAnything+3 -10344 -110+149-173
BetMGM+3.5 -11544 -112+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3 -10344 -115+152-173
betPARX+3.5 -11544.5 -107+150-186
BetRivers+3.5 -11544.5 -107+150-186
BetUS+3 -10544 -110+150-175
Bovada+3 +10044 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -10343.5 -115+153-182
Courtside68.5 -2433+163-188
DraftKings+3.5 -10844.5 -110+160-192
Fanatics+3.5 -11544 -110+150-180
FanDuel+3.5 -11244.5 -110+154-184
Fliff+3.5 -11544.5 -110+155-200
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11544 -115+155-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11544 -115+155-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11544 -115+155-185
LowVig.ag+3 +10344 -113+152-173
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -12044 -110+151-179
Pinnacle+3 +10344 -106+152-170
ReBet+3.5 -12044.5 -110+151-179
theScore Bet+3.5 -11544.5 -105+155-185

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -3.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (-2.8%) · TOM -3 at -117 (-3.9%) · Caesars -3 at -118 (-4.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -108 (-6.0%).
Not Nasty
Packers to win · -173 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Packers to win): TOM -173 (-4.0%) · Kalshi 62¢ (-4.2%) · Fanatics -180 (-4.9%) · Caesars -182 (-5.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -184 (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 44.5 at 49¢ (-0.9%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 44 at -112 (-1.4%) · TOM 44 at -115 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Jets).

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

TOM: moneyline +149 here against +165 consensus.

DraftKings still has Jets +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Packers by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but 2.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.5+155
FPI+2.5+137
Sagarin+4.5+168
Massey+2.5+135
Market (22 books)+3.0+149
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.045.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGreen Bay Packers -3.5+105+118-2.8%
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML-173-146-4.0%
TotalOver 44.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Jets since 09-13 18:48.

TOM: moneyline +149 here against +165 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →
Market
Patriots by 5TOM, -112
The Four
nfelo
Patriots by 5.5
FPI
Patriots by 5
Sagarin
Patriots by 5.5
Massey
Patriots by 4.5
Nasty Number
Patriots by 5.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Patriots by 5.5opened Patriots by 5.5now Patriots by 5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42TOM
The Four
Massey
40.41.6 pts under the market
FPI
41.10.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.075% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
39.82.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.8opened 42now 42MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
TOM-5 -11242 -110-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢41.5 -107 50¢-239 69¢+198 32¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10341.5 -101-229+202
All 24 books
Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
TOM-5 -11242 -110-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢41.5 -107 50¢-239 69¢+198 32¢
Bally Bet-5 -11241.5 -112-235+185
BetAnything-5.5 -11041.5 -105-240+200
BetMGM-5.5 -10841.5 -108-235+200
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11041.5 -105-243+202
betPARX-5 -11241.5 -112-235+185
BetRivers-5 -11241.5 -112-235+185
BetUS-5.5 -11041.5 -105-235+200
Bovada-5.5 -11041 -115-240+200
Caesars-5.5 -11041.5 -109-235+194
Courtside62.5 -586-225+194
DraftKings-5.5 -11241.5 -108-230+190
Fanatics-5.5 -11041.5 -110-245+200
FanDuel-4.5 -12041.5 -110-250+205
Fliff-5.5 -11041.5 -110-260+195
Hard Rock Bet-5.5 -11541 -115-250+210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-5.5 -11541 -115-250+210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-5.5 -11541 -115-250+210
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10441.5 -102-243+202
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11041.5 -110-238+198
Pinnacle-5.5 -10341.5 -101-229+202
ReBet-5.5 -11041.5 -109-238+198
theScore Bet-5.5 -11041.5 -105-230+195

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -5.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi -5.5 at 49¢ (-3.4%) · TOM -5 at -112 (-4.3%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-4.5%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -120 (-4.8%) · Caesars or Fanatics -5.5 at -110 (-5.0%).
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · -230 at DraftKings
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings -230 (-4.0%) · Caesars or BetMGM -235 (-4.5%) · Kalshi 69¢ (-4.8%) · Fanatics or TOM -245 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -250 (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 42.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 42 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 41.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 41.5 at -112 (-1.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Patriots).

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.6 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onPatriots by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.5-186
FPI-5.0-180
Sagarin-5.5-186
Massey-4.5-166
Market (22 books)-5.0-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.039.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots -5.0-112+106-4.3%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML-230-192-4.0%
TotalUnder 42.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus; total 42.0 here against 41.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys
NFL 3:25pm
No bet
market says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Cowboys by 4TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Cowboys by 4
FPI
Cowboys by 4.5
Sagarin
Cowboys by 4.5
Massey
Cowboys by 2
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 4opened Cowboys by 3now Cowboys by 4MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
Massey
53.12.1 pts over the market
FPI
50.20.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.60.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 50.5now 51MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
TOM-4 -10751 -110-202+162
Kalshi-4.5 +101 48¢50.5 -116 52¢-208 66¢+174 35¢
Pinnacle-4 -10351 -105-196+175
All 24 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
TOM-4 -10751 -110-202+162
Kalshi-4.5 +101 48¢50.5 -116 52¢-208 66¢+174 35¢
Bally Bet-4 -11051 -108-215+170
BetAnything-4 -11051 -110-210+175
BetMGM-4 -10551 -108-210+170
BetOnline.ag-4 -10751 -110-202+175
betPARX-4 -11051 -108-215+170
BetRivers-4 -11051 -108-215+170
BetUS-4 -11051 -110-202+172
Bovada-4 -10551 -110-200+170
Caesars-4 -11150.5 -117-209+175
Courtside70.5 -1208-213+184
DraftKings-3.5 -12050.5 -120-218+180
Fanatics-4 -11051 -110-205+170
FanDuel-4.5 -10250.5 -118-205+172
Fliff-3.5 -11551.5 -105-220+170
Hard Rock Bet-4 -11551 -110-210+175
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-4 -11551 -110-210+175
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-4 -11551 -110-210+175
LowVig.ag-4 -10251 -107-202+175
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11051 -110-210+176
Pinnacle-4 -10351 -105-196+175
ReBet-4.5 -11051 -110-208+174
theScore Bet-4 -11550.5 -120-200+170

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cowboys): Kalshi -4.5 at 48¢ (-3.9%) · BetMGM -4 at -105 (-4.0%) · TOM -4 at -107 (-4.5%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -102 (-4.6%) · Fanatics -4 at -110 (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · -202 at TOM
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): TOM -202 (-4.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -205 (-5.2%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -208 (-5.5%) · DraftKings -218 (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 51 at -108 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-1.5%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -117 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-161
FPI-4.5-177
Sagarin-4.5-172
Massey-2.0-124
Market (22 books)-4.0-193
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.051.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDallas Cowboys -4.0-107+112-4.5%
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML-202-164-4.8%
TotalOver 51.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs
NFL 7:20pm
No bet
market says Chiefs by 6, our data says Chiefs by 6.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 6TOM, -106
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 7.5
FPI
Chiefs by 8
Sagarin
Chiefs by 8
Massey
Chiefs by 6.5
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 6.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 6.5opened Chiefs by 6.5now Chiefs by 6MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM
The Four
Massey
48.11.6 pts over the market
FPI
45.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.7on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.7opened 47.5now 46.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-6 -10646.5 -105-273+213
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢46.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-6 +10347 +106-264+230
All 24 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-6 -10646.5 -105-273+213
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢46.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-6 -11446.5 -110-315+240
BetAnything-6 -11046.5 -110-280+230
BetMGM46 -110-275+220
BetOnline.ag-6 -10646.5 -105-273+225
betPARX-6 -11446.5 -110-315+240
BetRivers-6 -11446.5 -110-315+240
BetUS-6 -10546.5 -105-280+235
Bovada-5.5 -11046 +100-275+225
Caesars-6 -10746.5 -107-275+220
Courtside53.5 -373-258+220
DraftKings-6 -10846.5 -102-265+215
Fanatics-5.5 -11546 -110-280+225
FanDuel-6.5 -10246.5 -110-275+225
Fliff-5.5 -12046.5 -110-315+225
Hard Rock Bet-6 -11046.5 -110-300+230
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6 -11046.5 -110-300+230
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6 -11046.5 -110-300+230
LowVig.ag-6 -10146.5 -102-273+225
MyBookie.ag-6 -11046 -110-275+228
Pinnacle-6 +10347 +106-264+230
ReBet-6 -11046 -110-275+228
theScore Bet-6 -11046.5 -105-260+215

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -6.0 · -106 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%) · Fanatics -5.5 at -115 (-2.8%) · TOM -6 at -106 (-2.8%) · Caesars -6 at -107 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (-3.3%).
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -273 at TOM
We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -265 (-3.9%) · TOM, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -273 (-4.5%) · Kalshi 72¢ (-4.7%) · Fanatics -280 (-5.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 46.5 at -102 (0.1%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (-0.2%) · TOM 46.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Caesars 46.5 at -107 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 39% chance of rain.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.5-243
FPI-8.0-275
Sagarin-8.0-260
Massey-6.5-216
Market (22 books)-6.0-261
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.546.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -6.0-106+106-2.8%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-273-219-4.5%
TotalOver 46.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams
NFL tomorrow 7:15pm
No bet
market says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →
Market
Rams by 7TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 8.5
FPI
Rams by 5
Sagarin
Rams by 8.5
Massey
Rams by 7.5
Nasty Number
Rams by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 7.5opened Rams by 7now Rams by 7MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
47.20.8 pts under the market
FPI
48.50.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.8opened 48.5now 48MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-7 -11048 -110-325+250
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢47.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
Pinnacle-7 -10548.5 +101-320+274
All 24 books
Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-7 -11048 -110-325+250
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢47.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
Bally Bet-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetAnything-7 -11048 -110-325+255
BetMGM-7 -11048 -108-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -11048 -110-325+263
betPARX-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetRivers-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetUS-7 -11047.5 -110-315+258
Bovada-7 -11048 -110-340+270
Caesars-7 -10847.5 -118-320+250
Courtside66.5 -4336-297+251
DraftKings-7 -10847.5 -115-305+245
Fanatics-7 -11048 -110-330+260
FanDuel-7.5 +10047.5 -115-330+265
Fliff-6.5 -12547.5 -120-335+240
Hard Rock Bet-7 -11048 -110-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -11048 -110-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -11048 -110-325+260
LowVig.ag-7 -10548 -107-325+263
MyBookie.ag-7 -11048 -110-340+260
Pinnacle-7 -10548.5 +101-320+274
ReBet-7.5 -10547.5 -120-330+265
theScore Bet-7 -11547.5 -115-320+260

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -7.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): DraftKings or Caesars -7 at -108 (-5.3%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -7 at -110 (-5.8%) · FanDuel -7.5 at +100 (-5.9%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 54¢ (-6.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Rams to win · -305 at DraftKings
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -305 (-4.3%) · Caesars -320 (-5.2%) · BetMGM or TOM -325 (-5.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -330 (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-1.0%) · BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars 47.5 at -118 (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).

Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-278
FPI-5.0-181
Sagarin-8.5-282
Massey-7.5-250
Market (22 books)-7.0-311
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Rams -7.0-110+115-5.8%
MoneylineLos Angeles Rams ML-305-245-4.3%
TotalOver 48.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal Carolina
CFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 1
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Coastal Carolina by 1. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Coastal Carolina by 1.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI
Liberty by 1.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
Massey
Coastal Carolina by 3.5
Nasty Number
Coastal Carolina by 10.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
58.75.2 pts over the market
Massey
52.31.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.52 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLLiberty ML
Kalshi
All 5 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLLiberty ML
Bally Bet-1.5 -11053.5 -113-122+100
betPARX-1.5 -11053.5 -113-122+100
BetRivers-1.5 -11253.5 -114-124+100
FanDuel-1.5 -11053.5 -110-118-102
ReBet-1.5 -11153.5 -114-124-107

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Liberty +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Liberty): FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
Not Nasty
Liberty to win · +100
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Liberty to win): FanDuel -102 (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-1.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $52 available; Under 53.5, only $52 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCoastal Carolina by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI+1.5+118
Sagarinhasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
Massey-3.5-145
Market (5 books)-1.5-110
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.555.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLiberty Flames +1.5-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineLiberty Flames ML+100+109-2.1%
TotalOver 53.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at Packers
NFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm
No bet
market says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Packers →
Market
Packers by 6.5
The Four
nfelo
Packers by 10
FPI
Packers by 13
Sagarin
Packers by 8.5
Massey
Packers by 8
Nasty Number
Packers by 70.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 7opened Packers by 6.5now Packers by 6.5ThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
47.81.8 pts over the market
FPI
40.65.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.21.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.2opened 46.5now 46.5ThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Packers spreadTotal (over)Packers MLFalcons ML
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢46.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢
All 11 books
Packers spreadTotal (over)Packers MLFalcons ML
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢46.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -10945.5 -109-305+245
betPARX-6.5 -10945.5 -109-305+245
BetRivers-6.5 -10945.5 -109-305+245
Caesars-6.5 -11446.5 -106-295+240
Courtside-6.5 -11346.5 -108-290+246
DraftKings-6.5 -11546.5 -110-298+240
FanDuel-6.5 -11545.5 -115-335+270
Fliff-6.5 -11046.5 -110-325+235
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11046 -110-310+228
ReBet-6.5 -12045.5 -120-295+240

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -6.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Caesars -6.5 at -114 (-4.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · -305
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Packers to win): Caesars or DraftKings -295 (-3.9%) · Kalshi 75¢ (-5.5%) · FanDuel -335 (-6.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -114 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-1.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons ML, only $477 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-10.0-252
FPI-13.0-372
Sagarin-8.5-209
Massey-8.0-195
Market (10 books)-6.5-279
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGreen Bay Packers -6.5-110+103-3.2%
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML-305-243-4.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Fri Sep 25

4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UAB, Navy at UAB
GameThe call
Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UAB
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pm
UAB +11.5
should be UAB +10.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · UABBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UAB. Market says Navy by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 10.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 54.5 as well.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore UAB →
Market
Navy by 11.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI
Navy by 7.54.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen UAB's last game
Massey
Navy by 8.53 pts our side
Nasty Number
Navy by 10.51.3 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean UAB. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
61.36.8 pts over the market
Massey
59.85.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.56 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLNavy ML
Kalshi
All 5 books
UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLNavy ML
Bally Bet+11.5 -10954.5 -110+320-420
betPARX+11.5 -10954.5 -110+320-420
BetRivers+11.5 -11054.5 -112+320-435
FanDuel+11.5 -11054.5 -110+350-465
ReBet+12.5 -11454.5 -114+320-500

Marked: best for UAB, higher payout on each moneyline.

UAB +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UAB): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (3.7%).
A Little Nasty
UAB to win · +350 at FanDuel
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UAB to win): FanDuel +350 (3.2%).
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 60. That's 6.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (2.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UAB +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers ML, only $265 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNavy by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI+7.5+212
Sagarinhasn't seen UAB's last game
Massey+8.5+244
Market (5 books)+11.5+398
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.560.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUAB Blazers +11.5-110-127+3.7%
MoneylineUAB Blazers ML+350+294priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at California
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pm
Clemson -1.5
should be Clemson -2.5 · getting 1 pt at Kalshi
Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says Clemson by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Clemson than the bookmore California →
Market
Clemson by 1.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI
Clemson by 5.53.9 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
Massey
Clemson by 64.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Clemson by 2.50.8 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Clemson. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Clemson by 2.5opened Clemson by 1.5now Clemson by 1.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
47.80.7 pts under the market
Massey
50.41.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.10.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.1opened 48.5now 48.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢48.5 -112 51¢
All 6 books
California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢48.5 -112 51¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -11048.5 -110+100-122
betPARX+1.5 -11048.5 -110+100-122
BetRivers+1.5 -11048.5 -112+100-124
FanDuel+1.5 -11048.5 -110-102-118
ReBet+1.5 -11648.5 -114-107-124

Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson -1.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Clemson): Kalshi -1.5 at 49¢ (2.6%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -110 (1.0%).
Not Nasty
Clemson to win · -122
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel -118 (1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson -1.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears ML, only $13 available; Clemson Tigers ML, only $164 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI+5.5+173
Sagarinhasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
Massey+6.0+181
Market (5 books)+1.5+110
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.549.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers -1.5-103-114+2.6%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-122-126+0.9%
TotalOver 48.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at Temple
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pm
Temple +3.5
should be Temple +2 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Temple →
Market
Army by 3
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI
Temple by 0.53.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Temple's last game
Massey
Army by 5.52.6 pts against us
Nasty Number
Army by 21 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Temple. Massey at Army by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
58.37.8 pts over the market
Massey
50.7on the market
Nasty Number
54.54 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4 points of the book.
Temple spreadTotal (over)Temple MLArmy ML
Kalshi
All 6 books
Temple spreadTotal (over)Temple MLArmy ML
Bally Bet+3 -10950.5 -113+128-157
betPARX+3 -10950.5 -113+128-157
BetRivers+3 -11050.5 -114+128-159
FanDuel+3.5 -12050.5 -110+132-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10550.5 -110+135-160
ReBet+3.5 -13350.5 -114+126-168

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Temple): FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.0%).
Not Nasty
Temple to win · +128
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Temple to win): FanDuel +132 (1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $63 available; Temple Owls ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArmy by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI-0.5-103
Sagarinhasn't seen Temple's last game
Massey+5.5+179
Market (6 books)+3.0+145
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.554.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +3.5-120-130+2.0%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+128+123+0.9%
TotalOver 50.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at Indiana
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pm
No bet
market says Indiana by 23.5, our data says Indiana by 22
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.

The spread

← more Northwestern than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 23.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI
Indiana by 17.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
Nasty Number
Indiana by 221.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.42.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.42.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.4opened 47.5now 47.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
Kalshi47.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢+1242
All 9 books
Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
Kalshi47.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢+1242
Bally Bet-23.5 -10848 -107+1400
betPARX-23.5 -10848 -107+1400
BetRivers-23.5 -10948 -108+1400
Courtside-23.5 -10847.5 -108+1758
DraftKings-23.5 -11047.5 -110+1600
FanDuel-23.5 -11047.5 -115+1280
ReBet-23.5 -11447.5 -116-2500+840
theScore Bet-23.5 -11047.5 -115+1500

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +23.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): FanDuel or DraftKings +23.5 at -110 (-1.3%).
Blowout line
Northwestern to win · +1400
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): DraftKings +1600 (1.7%) · FanDuel +1280 (0.3%) · Kalshi 7¢ (0.1%).
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 2221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI-17.5-668
Sagarinhasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
Masseyrates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales
Market (8 books)-23.5-3041
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.545.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +23.5-110-104-1.3%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+1400+1224priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 26

53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSU
GameThe call
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Texas A&M +8
should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +5.5
Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 8
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI
LSU by 4.53.5 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
Massey
Texas A&M by 18.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
LSU by 71.1 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
47.16.4 pts under the market
Massey
52.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.93.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 53.5now 53.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
Kalshi-8.5 -112 51¢53.5 -103 49¢+252 27¢
All 10 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
Kalshi-8.5 -112 51¢53.5 -103 49¢+252 27¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -11353.5 -109-335+255
BetMGM-8 -10853.5 -108-350+275
betPARX-7.5 -11353.5 -109-335+255
BetRivers-7.5 -11453.5 -110-335+255
Courtside-8.5 -10353.5 -108-383+319
DraftKings-8.5 -10553.5 -110-395+310
FanDuel-7.5 -11553.5 -106-315+250
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11053.5 -110-350+260
ReBet-8.5 -11153.5 -111-350+244

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Texas A&M): FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (5.8%) · BetMGM +8 at -110 (5.8%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Texas A&M to win · +310 at DraftKings
We make it 33 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings +310 (8.6%) · BetMGM +275 (6.3%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +252 (4.6%).
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (-1.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +8.5, only $26 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $131 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI-4.5-157
Sagarinhasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
Massey+1.0+109
Market (9 books)-8.0-315
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.549.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies +8.0-110-139+5.8%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML+310+203priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Cincinnati +7
should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt
Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.5 as well.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Kansas State by 7
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI
Kansas State by 34 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
Massey
Kansas State by 4.52.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 61.2 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas State by 6opened Kansas State by 6.5now Kansas State by 6.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.84.3 pts over the market
Massey
56.32.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.13.6 pts over the market
Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.1opened 51.5now 53.5Sun

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Cincinnati): FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.3%).
A Little Nasty
Cincinnati to win · +215 at FanDuel
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 32. That's value. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cincinnati loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): FanDuel +215 (3.6%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (0.3%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI+3.0+137
Sagarinhasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
Massey+4.5+157
Market (3 books)+7.0+256
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.557.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +7.0-110-131+4.4%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+215+183+3.6%
TotalOver 53.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
UConn +5.5
should be UConn +3.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 5.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI
UConn by 0.55.9 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
Massey
Miami (OH) by 0.55.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 3.51.8 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.23.3 pts under the market
Massey
53.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.40.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLUConn ML
Kalshi
UConn +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (4.3%).
A Little Nasty
UConn to win · +168
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: UConn loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (UConn to win): FanDuel +164 (2.8%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-1.6%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $432 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI+0.5+104
Sagarinhasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
Massey-0.5-104
Market (2 books)-5.5-195
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.549.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +5.5-110-131+4.3%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+168+146+3.4%
TotalOver 48.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSA
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Colorado State +13
should be Colorado State +11 · getting 2 pts
Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore UTSA →
Market
UTSA by 13
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI
UTSA by 6.56.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
Massey
UTSA by 112.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
UTSA by 111.9 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
54.71.8 pts under the market
Massey
58.31.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.
Colorado State +13.0 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (3.1%).
A Little Nasty
Colorado State to win · +379
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +400 (4.0%).
Off the band
the Over 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI-6.5-197
Sagarinhasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
Massey-11.0-306
Market (2 books)-13.0-491
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.556.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +13.0-110-129+3.9%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+379+317priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Middle Tennessee +9
should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →
Market
Jacksonville State by 9
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI
Jacksonville State by 6.52.6 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
Massey
Jacksonville State by 81.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Jacksonville State by 8.50.8 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Middle Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.74.2 pts over the market
Massey
53.7on the market
Nasty Number
55.72.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.
Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.9%).
A Little Nasty
Middle Tennessee to win · +260
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win): FanDuel +265 (2.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Full detail
We settle onJacksonville State by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI-6.5-195
Sagarinhasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
Massey-8.0-225
Market (3 books)-9.0-313
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.555.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0-110-126+3.3%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+260+236+2.0%
TotalOver 53.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Nevada +4.5
should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Air Force by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI
Air Force by 0.54.1 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Nevada's last game
Massey
Air Force by 1.53.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Air Force by 3.50.9 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
48.90.6 pts under the market
Massey
48.90.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.90.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
Kalshi
All 3 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
FanDuel+4.5 -11049.5 -110+162-196
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -110+170-220
ReBet+4.5 -114+162-220

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (2.8%).
Not Nasty
Nevada to win · +162 at FanDuel
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Nevada to win): FanDuel +162 (2.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-2.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5, only $159 available; Air Force Falcons -4.5, only $159 available; Nevada Wolf Pack ML, only $155 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI+0.5+104
Sagarinhasn't seen Nevada's last game
Massey+1.5+114
Market (3 books)+4.5+190
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.548.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNevada Wolf Pack +4.5-110-123+2.8%
MoneylineNevada Wolf Pack ML+162+145+2.7%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling Green
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Under 53.5
should be 52.1 · getting 1.4 pts
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says South Florida by 15, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 17, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Bowling Green →
Market
South Florida by 15
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI
South Florida by 226.8 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
Massey
South Florida by 171.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Florida by 172 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean South Florida. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
47.95.6 pts under the market
Massey
49.63.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.84.7 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
Kalshi-719 87¢
All 3 books
Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
Kalshi-719 87¢
FanDuel+14.5 -11053.5 -110+530-780
ReBet+15.5 -114+450-800

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -15.0 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Florida): FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (2.9%).
Not Nasty
South Florida to win · -780 at FanDuel
We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 89, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Florida to win): Kalshi 87¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel -780 (-2.4%).
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (1.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 1730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI+22.0+1148
Sagarinhasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
Massey+17.0+616
Market (2 books)+15.0+676
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.548.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -15.0-110-121+2.3%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML-780-628priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Ball State +3.5
should be Ball State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Kent State by 3.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI
Kent State by 0.52.9 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
Massey
Ball State by 1.54.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Kent State by 30.6 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Ball State. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
47.92.6 pts under the market
Massey
54.33.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.10.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ball State): FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (2.1%).
Not Nasty
Ball State to win · +146 at FanDuel
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Ball State to win): FanDuel +146 (2.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Full detail
We settle onKent State by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI-0.5-106
Sagarinhasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
Massey+1.5+114
Market (5 books)-3.5-159
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBall State Cardinals +3.5-110-120+2.1%
MoneylineBall State Cardinals ML+146+134+2.1%
TotalOver 50.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Under 59.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 57 · getting 2.5 pts · was 57.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans West Virginia too: market says Oklahoma State by 0.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 1, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
Oklahoma State by 0.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI
West Virginia by 2.53 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
Massey
West Virginia by 66.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
West Virginia by 11.2 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number West Virginia by 1opened Oklahoma State by 2.5now Oklahoma State by 1.5FriSatSun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.96.6 pts under the market
Massey
53.65.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.26.3 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 57.5now 58.5FriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

West Virginia +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (West Virginia): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (2.0%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -104 (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
West Virginia to win · -102 at DraftKings
We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): DraftKings -102 (1.4%) · FanDuel -110 (-0.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 6.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (6.4%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (1.5%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 2.1 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail
We settle onWest Virginia by 140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI-2.5-129
Sagarinhasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
Massey-6.0-184
Market (9 books)+0.5+104
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers +1.5-110-119+2.0%
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML-102-108+1.4%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-129shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm
Penn State -10.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be Penn State -12.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was -11.5
Sniff of Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Penn State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 12.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →
Market
Penn State by 10.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI
Penn State by 15.55 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Massey
Penn State by 176.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Penn State by 12.52 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Penn State. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 12.5opened Penn State by 11.5now Penn State by 10.5FriSatSun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Penn State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
SP+ pace
38.15.4 pts under the market
Massey
41.61.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.93.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.9opened 44.5now 44.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Penn State -10.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Penn State): FanDuel -10.5 at +100 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -10 at -110 (1.2%).
Not Nasty
Penn State to win · -400 at FanDuel
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (Penn State to win): FanDuel -400 (-1.1%) · BetMGM -450 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -500 (-4.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110
SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (3.6%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -102 (3.0%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -115 (0.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State -10.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 12.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI-15.5-527
Sagarinhasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Massey-17.0-621
Market (10 books)-10.5-443
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.539.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPenn State Nittany Lions -10.5+100-107+1.7%
MoneylinePenn State Nittany Lions ML-400-375-1.1%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Over 51.5
should be 53.2 · getting 1.7 pts
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Charlotte too: market says Louisiana by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Louisiana by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI
Louisiana by 7.56.2 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
Massey
Louisiana by 9.54.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 121.3 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Charlotte. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
60.99.4 pts over the market
Massey
58.36.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.68.1 pts over the market
Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
Kalshi-660 86¢
All 4 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
Kalshi-660 86¢
FanDuel+13.5 -11051.5 -110+460-650
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -105+425-600
ReBet+13.5 -109+380-625

Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Charlotte): FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (1.6%).
Not Nasty
Charlotte to win · +460 at FanDuel
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): FanDuel +460 (4.0%).
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 8.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.9%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $159 available; Under 51.5, only $159 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 1221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI+7.5+210
Sagarinhasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
Massey+9.5+260
Market (3 books)+13.5+546
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.559.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +13.5-110-117+1.6%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+460+358priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Iowa State +12
should be Iowa State +11.5 · getting 0.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · Iowa StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Iowa State. Market says Utah by 12, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Utah than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Utah by 12
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI
Utah by 102.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
Massey
Utah by 7.54.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Utah by 11.50.7 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 11.5opened Utah by 12.5now Utah by 12.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
46.12.7 pts under the market
Massey
50.71.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.40.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 48.5now 48.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State +12.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (0.8%).
Not Nasty
Iowa State to win · +390
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel +400 (3.2%) · DraftKings +370 (2.0%).
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +12.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI+10.0+278
Sagarinhasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
Massey+7.5+213
Market (6 books)+12.0+477
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.048.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa State Cyclones +12.0-110-117+1.5%
MoneylineIowa State Cyclones ML+390+330priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
James Madison -3
should be James Madison -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 3, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 4.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →
Market
James Madison by 3
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI
James Madison by 8.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
Massey
James Madison by 73.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
James Madison by 4.51.6 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean James Madison. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.45.1 pts under the market
Massey
54.12.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off
Nasty Number
49.32.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.
Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
Kalshi
James Madison -3.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
James Madison to win · -158
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (James Madison to win): FanDuel -154 (0.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $44 available; James Madison Dukes ML, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI+8.5+237
Sagarinhasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
Massey+7.0+203
Market (2 books)+3.0+142
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.549.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -3.0-110-116+1.3%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-158-160+0.2%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm
Tulsa +9.5
should be Tulsa +7 · getting 2.5 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Arkansas by 9.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI
Arkansas by 1.57.8 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
Massey
Arkansas by 17.58.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas by 72.4 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Tulsa. Massey at Arkansas by 17.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas by 7opened Arkansas by 9.5now Arkansas by 9.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
62.910.4 pts over the market
Massey
53.81.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.45.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.4opened 52.5now 52.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
Kalshi-340 76¢
All 3 books
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
Kalshi-340 76¢
FanDuel-9.5 -11552.5 -110-375+290
ReBet-9.5 -119-400+270

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +9.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Tulsa): FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (8.1%).
A Little Nasty
Tulsa to win · +280
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Tulsa loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): FanDuel +290 (6.9%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (2.0%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +9.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $156 available; Under 52.5, only $156 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $207 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI-1.5-118
Sagarinhasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
Massey-17.5-679
Market (2 books)-9.5-343
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.558.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTulsa Golden Hurricane +9.5-105-146+8.1%
MoneylineTulsa Golden Hurricane ML+280+208+6.2%
TotalOver 52.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
UL Monroe +13.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be UL Monroe +13 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 13. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI
Florida Atlantic by 103.5 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 5.57.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 130.7 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean UL Monroe. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida Atlantic by 13opened Florida Atlantic by 12.5now Florida Atlantic by 13.5Sun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UL Monroe's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
63.44.9 pts over the market
Massey
59.51 pts over the market
Nasty Number
61.42.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.4opened 57.5now 58.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
Kalshi
All 3 books
UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
FanDuel+13.5 -10558.5 -110+440-610
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 +100+425-600
ReBet+13.5 -105+400-676

Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +13.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.1%).
Not Nasty
UL Monroe to win · +425
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win): FanDuel +440 (2.2%).
Off the band
the Over 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +13.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $297 available; Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 1321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI+10.0+283
Sagarinhasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
Massey+5.5+177
Market (3 books)+13.5+549
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.561.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUL Monroe Warhawks +13.5-105-110+1.1%
MoneylineUL Monroe Warhawks ML+425+382priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 58.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 49.5
should be 47.9 · getting 1.6 pts
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Arizona by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 12. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Arizona by 12.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI
Arizona by 10.51.8 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
Massey
Arizona by 5.57.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona by 120.5 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Washington State. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
445.5 pts under the market
Massey
44.64.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.35.2 pts under the market
Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Washington State +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (0.8%).
Not Nasty
Washington State to win · +379
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Washington State to win): FanDuel +400 (2.3%).
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 45. That's 5.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (0.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Washington State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI+10.5+303
Sagarinhasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
Massey+5.5+172
Market (2 books)+12.5+491
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.544.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +12.5-110-114+0.8%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+379+348priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at Akron
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Akron +13.5
should be Akron +12.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore Akron →
Market
UNLV by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI
UNLV by 103.9 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Akron's last game
Massey
UNLV by 13.50.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
UNLV by 12.51.2 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 12.5opened UNLV by 13.5now UNLV by 13.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.73.8 pts under the market
Massey
51.12.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.43.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 54.5now 53.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
Kalshi
All 5 books
Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
Bally Bet+13.5 -10953.5 -113+440-625
betPARX+13.5 -10953.5 -113+440-625
BetRivers+13.5 -11053.5 -114+440-670
FanDuel+13.5 -10453.5 -110+470-670
ReBet+14.5 -11953.5 -114+400-676

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +13.5 · -104 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Akron): FanDuel +13.5 at -104 (2.0%).
Not Nasty
Akron to win · +440
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Akron to win): FanDuel +470 (3.7%).
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-0.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +13.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +14.5, only $42 available; UNLV Rebels -14.5, only $265 available; Over 52.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI+10.0+276
Sagarinhasn't seen Akron's last game
Massey+13.5+406
Market (5 books)+13.5+571
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +13.5-104-113+2.0%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+440+372priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at Auburn
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pm
Under 52.5
should be 51.5 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 52.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Auburn by 9
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI
Auburn by 9on the market
Sagarin
hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
Massey
Auburn by 4.54.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Auburn by 90 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 0 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Auburn by 9opened Auburn by 9.5now Auburn by 9.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.23.5 pts under the market
Massey
48.44.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.83.9 pts under the market
Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.8opened 53.5now 53.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢53.5 -112 51¢-360 77¢+266 26¢
All 10 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢53.5 -112 51¢-360 77¢+266 26¢
Bally Bet-9 -11252.5 -112-375+285
betPARX-9 -11252.5 -112-375+285
BetRivers-9 -11352.5 -113-385+285
Courtside-9.5 -10852.5 -108-350+293
DraftKings-9.5 -11052.5 -110-360+285
FanDuel-8.5 -11253.5 -112-345+270
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11552.5 -115-375+275
ReBet-9.5 -11952.5 -116-400+270
theScore Bet-8.5 -11553.5 -115-360+280

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -108 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Vanderbilt to win · +285 at DraftKings
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 24. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): DraftKings +285 (2.2%) · FanDuel +270 (1.2%) · Kalshi 26¢ (0.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (2.9%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-0.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $22 available; Under 53.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAuburn by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI-9.0-252
Sagarinhasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
Massey-4.5-158
Market (9 books)-9.0-333
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.548.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML+285+254+2.2%
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores +9.0-110-117+1.5%
TotalUnder 52.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
App State +13.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be App State +12 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · App StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, App State. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 12. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →
Market
NC State by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI
NC State by 94.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
Massey
NC State by 15.52.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
NC State by 121.3 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean App State. Massey at NC State by 15.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number NC State by 12opened NC State by 12.5now NC State by 13.5Sun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in App State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.63.1 pts over the market
Massey
561.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.82.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 54.5now 54.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

App State +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (App State): FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (1.5%).
Not Nasty
App State to win · +399
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (App State to win): FanDuel +420 (2.6%).
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is App State +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Full detail
We settle onNC State by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI-9.0-258
Sagarinhasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
Massey-15.5-533
Market (2 books)-13.5-523
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.556.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAppalachian State Mountaineers +13.5-110-117+1.5%
MoneylineAppalachian State Mountaineers ML+399+359priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCF
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Under 51.5
should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 pts
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says TCU by 2, the Nasty Number says TCU by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more TCU than the bookmore UCF →
Market
TCU by 2
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
Massey
TCU by 2.5
Nasty Number
TCU by 1.50.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.66.9 pts under the market
Massey
49.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
474.5 pts under the market
Under 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
Kalshi-148 58¢
All 3 books
UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
Kalshi-148 58¢
FanDuel+2.5 -11451.5 -110+105-126
ReBet+1.5 -109+101-133

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +2.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +103
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (UCF to win): FanDuel +105 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 49. That's 4.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +3.5, only $459 available; TCU Horned Frogs -3.5, only $459 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTCU by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPIPK+102
Sagarinhasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
Massey+2.5+130
Market (2 books)+2.0+116
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +2.0-110+100-2.4%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+103+116-2.9%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at Florida
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 58.5
should be 56.9 · getting 1.6 pts · was 58
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 58.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Florida →
Market
Florida by 2
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI
Florida by 1
Sagarin
hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
Massey
Ole Miss by 4.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 1.5opened Florida by 1.5now Florida by 2.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 1.5 to Florida by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.37.2 pts under the market
Massey
56.52 pts under the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
53.25.3 pts under the market
Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 58.5now 58.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
Kalshi-2.558.5 -107 50¢-126 54¢
All 11 books
Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
Kalshi-2.558.5 -107 50¢-126 54¢
Bally Bet-2 -10858.5 -108-127+105
BetMGM-2 -11058.5 -105-130+105
betPARX-2 -10858.5 -108-127+105
BetRivers-2 -10958.5 -109-129+104
Courtside-1.5 -10858.5 +100-116+100
DraftKings-1.5 -11058.5 -102-118-102
FanDuel-2.5 -11558.5 -105-138+115
Hard Rock Bet58.5 -105-125+105
ReBet58.5 -109-134+101
theScore Bet-2.5 -11558.5 -105-135+115

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ole Miss): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · BetMGM +2 at -108 (-2.5%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 52¢ (-3.2%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (-4.1%).
Not Nasty
Ole Miss to win · +115 at FanDuel
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Ole Miss to win): FanDuel +115 (-0.7%) · BetMGM +105 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -102 (-4.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 58.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -118 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 54¢ (-1.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Florida).

Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $1 available; Ole Miss Rebels ML, only $42 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI-1.0-109
Sagarinhasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
Massey+4.5+156
Market (10 books)-2.0-116
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOle Miss Rebels +2.5-105-102-0.7%
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML+115+118-0.7%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 0.5.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at Maryland
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 57.5
should be 55.4 · getting 2.1 pts · was 51.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Maryland →
Market
UCLA by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI
Maryland by 0.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
Massey
Maryland by 1
Nasty Number
UCLA by 1.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 1.5opened UCLA by 2.5now UCLA by 2.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.48.1 pts under the market
Massey
51.46.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.47.1 pts under the market
Under 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLUCLA ML
Kalshi+2.557.5 -112 51¢-148 58¢
Maryland +2.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Maryland): FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-1.4%).
Not Nasty
Maryland to win · +112 at FanDuel
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Maryland to win): FanDuel +112 (-1.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. That's 7.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (2.9%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).

Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $11 available; Under 57.5, only $52 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI-0.5-103
Sagarinhasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
Massey-1.0-108
Market (1 books)+2.5+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins +2.5-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML+112+118-1.4%
TotalUnder 57.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 6.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western Michigan
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Western Michigan +8.5
should be Western Michigan +7 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was +7
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Western Michigan →
Market
Boise State by 7.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI
Boise State by 61.7 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
Massey
Boise State by 9.51.8 pts against us
Nasty Number
Boise State by 70.5 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Western Michigan. Massey at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 7opened Boise State by 6.5now Boise State by 8.5FriSatSun

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.92.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.42.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.7on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.7opened 47.5now 47.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (6.0%) · DraftKings +7.5 at -108 (4.5%).
A Little Nasty
Western Michigan to win · +260 at FanDuel
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Western Michigan loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): FanDuel +260 (4.7%) · DraftKings +240 (3.1%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-3.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.7 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI+6.0+183
Sagarinhasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
Massey+9.5+264
Market (6 books)+7.5+285
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.547.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Michigan Broncos +8.5-110-141+6.0%
MoneylineWestern Michigan Broncos ML+260+208+4.7%
TotalOver 47.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pm
Minnesota +9
should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 9
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI
Washington by 72 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
Massey
Washington by 122.9 pts against us
Nasty Number
Washington by 8.50.6 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Minnesota. Massey at Washington by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 8.5opened Washington by 7.5now Washington by 9.5Sun

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Minnesota is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.84.9 pts under the market
Massey
45.40.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.12.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 45.5now 45.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢45.5 -121 53¢-404 79¢
All 6 books
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢45.5 -121 53¢-404 79¢
Courtside-9.5 -10845.5 -108-397+329
DraftKings-9.5 -11045.5 -110-410+320
FanDuel-9.5 -10546.5 -105-345+270
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11545.5 -110-375+275
ReBet-8.5 -11645.5 -114-400+270

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +9.0 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Minnesota): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.4%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -115 (2.3%).
A Little Nasty
Minnesota to win · +320 at DraftKings
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): DraftKings +320 (5.7%) · FanDuel +270 (2.4%).
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (-3.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5, only $26 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI-7.0-207
Sagarinhasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
Massey-12.0-350
Market (5 books)-9.0-346
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.543.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +9.0-110-124+3.0%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML+320+239priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.8.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at Georgia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Oklahoma +14
should be Oklahoma +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +12
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 14
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI
Georgia by 12.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
Massey
Georgia by 95 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia by 13.50.4 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Oklahoma. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 13.5opened Georgia by 13.5now Georgia by 14FriSatSun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
45.11.9 pts under the market
Massey
503 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.60.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.6opened 45.5now 46.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢46.5-660 86¢
All 11 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢46.5-660 86¢
Bally Bet-14 -10947 -112-625+430
BetMGM-14 +10046.5 -108-625+475
betPARX-14 -10947 -112-625+430
BetRivers-14 -11047 -113-625+430
Courtside-14 -10847.5 +100-623+487
DraftKings-14 -11047.5 -102-650+470
FanDuel-13.5 -11545.5 -110-650+460
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11548.5 -110-650+450
ReBet-13.5 -11948.5 -111-699+410
theScore Bet-13.5 -11545.5 -110-750+475

Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oklahoma): DraftKings +14 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · BetMGM +14 at -120 (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
Oklahoma to win · +455 at FanDuel
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): BetMGM or DraftKings +475 (2.2%) · FanDuel +460 (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (2.0%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-1.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +14.5, only $52 available; Over 46.5, only $10 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $499 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI-12.5-372
Sagarinhasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
Massey-9.0-248
Market (10 books)-14.0-576
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.047.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOklahoma Sooners +14.0-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineOklahoma Sooners ML+455+411priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 47.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Kennesaw State +4.5
should be Kennesaw State +4 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI
Arkansas State by 31.5 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
Massey
Arkansas State by 7.53.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 40.5 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Kennesaw State. Massey at Arkansas State by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.71.2 pts over the market
Massey
54.3on the market
Nasty Number
550.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.
Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (1.8%).
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · +160
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): FanDuel +158 (1.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI-3.0-135
Sagarinhasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
Massey-7.5-221
Market (2 books)-4.5-185
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.555.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +4.5-110-118+1.8%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML+160+151+1.5%
TotalOver 54.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Oregon +1.5
should be Oregon -1 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 0.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →
Market
Oregon by 0.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI
Oregon by 1.51 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Massey
Oregon by 32.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Oregon by 10.4 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Oregon. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 1opened USC by 2.5now USC by 1.5FriSatSun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oregon is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
63
The Four
SP+ pace
60.62.2 pts under the market
Massey
62.50.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
61.51.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.5opened 63.5now 62.5SatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 63.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
Kalshi62.5 -112 51¢+101 48¢-131 55¢
All 10 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
Kalshi62.5 -112 51¢+101 48¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+1 -10963.5 -113-104-118
BetMGM+1 -10862.5 -110-105-112
betPARX+1 -10963.5 -113-104-118
BetRivers+1 -11063.5 -114-105-120
Courtside-1.5 -10362.5 -108-113-103
DraftKings-1.5 -10562.5 -110-115-105
FanDuel+1.5 -10562.5 -110+104-125
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -11562.5 -110-105-115
ReBet+1.5 -11962.5 -114-109-121

Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon +1.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (1.5%) · BetMGM -1 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-3.5%).
Not Nasty
Oregon to win · -105 at DraftKings
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -105 (1.3%) · BetMGM -112 (-0.3%) · FanDuel -125 (-3.0%) · Kalshi 55¢ (-4.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 63.0 · -110
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 62.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 62.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 62.5 at 53¢ (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon +1.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now +0.5. The market has moved 2.4 toward Oregon, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +2.5, only $468 available; Oregon Ducks -2.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI+1.5+117
Sagarinhasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Massey+3.0+135
Market (9 books)+0.5+104
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points63.061.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon Ducks +1.5-115-122+1.5%
MoneylineOregon Ducks ML-105-111+1.3%
TotalUnder 63.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.3.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Wake Forest +13.5
should be Wake Forest +12.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →
Market
Louisville by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI
Louisville by 11.51.8 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Massey
Louisville by 11.51.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisville by 12.50.5 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Wake Forest. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58
The Four
SP+ pace
47.210.9 pts under the market
Massey
60.22.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.74.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.7opened 58.5now 58.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
Kalshi-13.5 -116 52¢58.5
All 10 books
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
Kalshi-13.5 -116 52¢58.5
Bally Bet-13.5 -11058 -112-625+450
betPARX-13.5 -11058 -112-625+450
BetRivers-13.5 -11258 -113-625+425
Courtside-13.5 -10858.5 -108-623+487
DraftKings-13.5 -11058.5 -110-650+470
FanDuel-12.5 -11057.5 -115-520+385
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11558.5 -105-550+400
ReBet-13.5 -11658.5 -109-575+360
theScore Bet-12.5 -11057.5 -115-600+400

Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (0.1%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
Wake Forest to win · +470 at DraftKings
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings +470 (3.3%) · FanDuel +385 (0.2%).
Off the band
the Under 58.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 60. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (1.9%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 52¢ (0.6%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.5%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $17 available; Over 58.5, only $50 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $454 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI-11.5-329
Sagarinhasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Massey-11.5-327
Market (9 books)-13.5-531
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.053.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML+470+380priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 58.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston College
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Virginia Tech by 15, our data says Virginia Tech by 15
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 15, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Boston College →
Market
Virginia Tech by 15
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI
Virginia Tech by 15
Sagarin
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
Massey
Virginia Tech by 3
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 150.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 15opened Virginia Tech by 14.5now Virginia Tech by 14.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.51 pts under the market
Massey
55.52 pts over the market
Weather
-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off
Nasty Number
52.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.
Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
Kalshi+14.5 -112 51¢53.5 -116 52¢-719 87¢
All 3 books
Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
Kalshi+14.5 -112 51¢53.5 -116 52¢-719 87¢
FanDuel+14.5 -11053.5 -115+490-710
ReBet+15.5 -11453.5 -119+440-800

Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia Tech -15.0 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia Tech): FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
Virginia Tech to win · -710 at FanDuel
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Virginia Tech to win): FanDuel or Kalshi -710 (-4.4%).
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (-0.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 62°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -14.5, only $25 available; Under 53.5, only $325 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI+15.0+505
Sagarinhasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
Massey+3.0+134
Market (2 books)+15.0+643
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Tech Hokies -15.0-110+103-3.1%
MoneylineVirginia Tech Hokies ML-710-497priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia Southern
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Houston by 20.5, our data says Houston by 19.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 20.5.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Georgia Southern →
Market
Houston by 20.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI
Houston by 16.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
Massey
Houston by 14.5
Nasty Number
Houston by 19.51.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.61.1 pts over the market
Massey
53.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.
Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
Kalshi-1429 93¢
All 3 books
Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
Kalshi-1429 93¢
FanDuel+20.5 -11054.5 -110+860-1600
ReBet+20.5 -105+660-1587

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia Southern): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-1.0%).
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +860 at FanDuel
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia Southern to win): FanDuel +860 (0.4%).
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $17 available; Houston Cougars -20.5, only $484 available; Over 54.5, only $346 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI+16.5+579
Sagarinhasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
Massey+14.5+459
Market (2 books)+20.5+1287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.554.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +20.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+860+828priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Georgia State by 9, our data says Georgia State by 9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 9, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Georgia State by 9
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI
Georgia State by 10.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
Massey
Georgia State by 5
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 9.50.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.52 pts under the market
Massey
49.64.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.13.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.
Georgia State -9.0 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia State): FanDuel -8.5 at -110 (-4.8%).
Not Nasty
Georgia State to win · -365
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Georgia State to win): FanDuel -360 (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI-10.5-296
Sagarinhasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
Massey-5.0-164
Market (2 books)-9.0-324
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers -9.0-110+112-5.3%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML-365-265-5.9%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 26
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →
Market
Ohio State by 27
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI
Ohio State by 24.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Massey
Ohio State by 21
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 260.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 26opened Ohio State by 26.5now Ohio State by 26.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.40.9 pts under the market
Massey
503.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.22 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 52.5now 52.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois +27.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings +27.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · BetMGM +27 at -108 (-2.5%) · FanDuel +26.5 at -105 (-3.0%).
Blowout line
Illinois to win · +2000 at DraftKings
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings +2000 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +1900 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 2630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI-24.5-1644
Sagarinhasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Massey-21.0-1043
Market (9 books)-27.0-4004
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.551.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini +27.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML+2000+2115priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Under 54.5
should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 18.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI
Tulane by 15
Sagarin
hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
Massey
Tulane by 17.5
Nasty Number
Tulane by 17.51 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.32.2 pts under the market
Massey
48.65.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.44.1 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
Kalshi-1087 91¢
All 3 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
Kalshi-1087 91¢
FanDuel-18.5 -11054.5 -110-1450+810
ReBet-18.5 -114-1099+570

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +18.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel +18.5 at -110 (0.3%).
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +810 at FanDuel
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +810 (2.1%).
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. That's 4.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave -18.5, only $275 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5, only $275 available; Over 54.5, only $325 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI-15.0-498
Sagarinhasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
Massey-17.5-667
Market (2 books)-18.5-1041
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+810+663priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at Tennessee
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Texas by 5.5, our data says Texas by 6
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Texas by 5.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI
Texas by 7.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
Massey
Texas by 2
Nasty Number
Texas by 60.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 6opened Texas by 5.5now Texas by 5.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
62.14.6 pts over the market
Massey
602.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
613.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
Kalshi+5.5+174 35¢-229 68¢
All 10 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
Kalshi+5.5+174 35¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11057.5 -109+170-215
betPARX+5.5 -11057.5 -109+170-215
BetRivers+5.5 -11257.5 -110+170-215
Courtside+5.5 -10857.5 -108+184-213
DraftKings+5.5 -11057.5 -110+180-218
FanDuel+5.5 -11057.5 -105+172-210
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11057.5 -105+180-230
ReBet+5.5 -11157.5 -111+173-238
theScore Bet+5.5 -11057.5 -105+170-200

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -5.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas): DraftKings or FanDuel -5.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Texas to win · -215
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Texas to win): FanDuel -210 (-3.2%) · DraftKings -218 (-4.0%) · Kalshi 68¢ (-5.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-0.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +5.5, only $45 available; Over 56.5, only $9 available; Under 56.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI+7.5+213
Sagarinhasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
Massey+2.0+122
Market (9 books)+5.5+197
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.561.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Longhorns -5.5-110+105-3.5%
MoneylineTexas Longhorns ML-215-182-3.7%
TotalOver 57.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at Kentucky
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45am
No bet
market says Kentucky by 20, our data says Kentucky by 19.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →
Market
Kentucky by 20
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI
Kentucky by 18
Sagarin
hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
Massey
Kentucky by 15.5
Nasty Number
Kentucky by 19.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kentucky by 19.5opened Kentucky by 20.5now Kentucky by 19.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kentucky by 20.5 to Kentucky by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.70.8 pts under the market
Massey
53.11.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.41.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.4opened 54.5now 54.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
Kalshi
All 3 books
Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
FanDuel-19.5 -11054.5 -110-1600+860
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -105-1100+700
ReBet-20.5 -109-1299+610

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +20.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel +19.5 at -110 (-3.6%).
Blowout line
South Alabama to win · +860 at FanDuel
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): FanDuel +860 (0.1%).
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-1.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $0 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onKentucky by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI-18.0-704
Sagarinhasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
Massey-15.5-531
Market (3 books)-20.0-1094
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.553.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +20.0-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+860+854priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at Wyoming
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm
No bet
market says Hawai'i by 5.5, our data says Hawai'i by 6
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 6. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Wyoming →
Market
Hawai'i by 5.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI
Hawai'i by 9
Sagarin
hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
Massey
Hawai'i by 0.5
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 60.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
SP+ pace
42.72.8 pts under the market
Massey
44.11.4 pts under the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
41.63.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.
Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
Kalshi+152 38¢
All 4 books
Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
Kalshi+152 38¢
FanDuel+5.5 -11045.5 -110+172-210
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -110+180-230
ReBet+5.5 -114+174-238

Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -5.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Hawai'i): FanDuel -5.5 at -110 (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -210 at FanDuel
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): FanDuel -210 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -110
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 44. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-0.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +5.5, only $53 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5, only $52 available; Over 45.5, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI+9.0+251
Sagarinhasn't seen Wyoming's last game
Massey+0.5+103
Market (3 books)+5.5+203
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.541.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-210-188-2.4%
TotalUnder 45.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at Baylor
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Baylor by 6.5, our data says Baylor by 7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 7.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 6.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI
Baylor by 11
Sagarin
hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
Massey
Baylor by 6
Nasty Number
Baylor by 7.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 7.5opened Baylor by 6.5now Baylor by 6.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
56.54 pts over the market
Massey
51.21.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.8opened 52.5now 52.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
Kalshi-6.5 -121 53¢52.5 -116 52¢
All 6 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
Kalshi-6.5 -121 53¢52.5 -116 52¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -11452.5 -110-265+195
betPARX-6.5 -11452.5 -110-265+195
BetRivers-6.5 -11552.5 -112-265+195
FanDuel-6.5 -11852.5 -112-260+210
ReBet-6.5 -12552.5 -116-285+204

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Baylor -6.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Baylor): FanDuel -6.5 at -118 (-3.6%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 53¢ (-4.2%).
Not Nasty
Baylor to win · -265
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Baylor to win): FanDuel -260 (-4.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +6.5, only $481 available; Under 52.5, only $459 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $257 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI-11.0-313
Sagarinhasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
Massey-6.0-181
Market (5 books)-6.5-237
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.553.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaylor Bears -6.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineBaylor Bears ML-265-214-4.4%
TotalOver 52.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Michigan by 4.5, our data says Michigan by 4.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →
Market
Michigan by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI
Michigan by 5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Massey
Michigan by 4
Nasty Number
Michigan by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 4.5opened Michigan by 4.5now Michigan by 5.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Michigan by 4.5 to Michigan by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38
The Four
SP+ pace
39.92 pts over the market
Massey
38.40.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
39.11.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢-191 64¢+166 36¢
All 10 books
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢-191 64¢+166 36¢
Bally Bet-4.5 -11037.5 -112-205+165
betPARX-4.5 -11037.5 -112-205+165
BetRivers-4.5 -11237.5 -113-210+163
Courtside-4.5 -10837.5 -108-188+163
DraftKings-4.5 -11037.5 -110-192+160
FanDuel-5.5 -10639.5 -110-205+168
Hard Rock Bet-4.5 -11037.5 -120-240+185
ReBet-4.5 -11437.5 -125-244+178
theScore Bet-4.5 -11039.5 -110-200+170

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-4.8%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -106 (-5.6%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 50¢ (-5.9%).
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -191 (64¢) at Kalshi
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Michigan to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -191 (-3.9%) · FanDuel -205 (-5.4%).
Not Nasty
the Over 38.0 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 37.5 at -110 (0.0%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -110 (-5.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5, only $219 available; Over 39.5, only $15 available; Under 39.5, only $439 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI-5.0-166
Sagarinhasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Massey-4.0-147
Market (9 books)-4.5-190
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.039.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -4.5-110+110-4.8%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-191-162-3.9%
TotalOver 38.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says New Mexico by 14.5, our data says New Mexico by 14.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 14.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico by 14.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI
New Mexico by 15.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
Massey
New Mexico by 11
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 14.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 14.5opened New Mexico by 13.5now New Mexico by 14.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
50.7on the market
Massey
55.34.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
532.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53opened 50.5now 50.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico -14.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (New Mexico): FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-3.3%).
Not Nasty
New Mexico to win · -780 at FanDuel
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 89, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): FanDuel -780 (-6.0%).
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-0.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward New Mexico). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI+15.5+508
Sagarinhasn't seen New Mexico's last game
Massey+11.0+319
Market (1 books)+14.5+690
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos -14.5-110+104-3.3%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML-780-477priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward New Mexico Lobos since 09-20 06:03.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at Purdue
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Notre Dame by 28, our data says Notre Dame by 27.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore Purdue →
Market
Notre Dame by 28
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI
Notre Dame by 26
Sagarin
hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
Massey
Notre Dame by 25
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 27.50.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57
The Four
SP+ pace
552 pts under the market
Massey
57.60.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.30.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.3opened 56.5now 56.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi56.5 -121 53¢+1775 -2580 96¢
All 7 books
Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi56.5 -121 53¢+1775 -2580 96¢
Courtside+27.5 -10356.5 -113+2246
DraftKings+27.5 -10556.5 -115+2000
FanDuel+27.5 -10657.5 -110+1600
Hard Rock Bet+28.5 -11557.5 -110+1300
ReBet+28.5 -11657.5 -111+1025
theScore Bet+27.5 -10556.5 -110+1500

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +28.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Purdue): DraftKings +27.5 at -105 (-3.8%) · FanDuel +27.5 at -106 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Purdue to win · +2000 at DraftKings
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Purdue to win): DraftKings +2000 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 5¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel +1600 (-2.1%).
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-3.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 27.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI+26.0+2132
Sagarinhasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
Massey+25.0+1756
Market (6 books)+28.0+3720
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.056.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +28.0-110+101-2.6%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+2000+2529priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Massachusetts by 6.5, our data says Massachusetts by 8
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 8. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →
Market
Massachusetts by 6.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI
Massachusetts by 11.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
Massey
Sacramento State by 5.5
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 81.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 8opened Massachusetts by 5.5now Massachusetts by 6.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Massachusetts by 5.5 to Massachusetts by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.32.2 pts under the market
Massey
54.53 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.90.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 51.5now 51.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Massachusetts -6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Massachusetts): FanDuel -6.5 at -110 (-0.4%).
Not Nasty
Massachusetts to win · -235 at FanDuel
We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): FanDuel -235 (-0.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Massachusetts).

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI+11.5+330
Sagarinhasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
Massey-5.5-178
Market (2 books)+6.5+223
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUMass Minutemen -6.5-110-108-0.4%
MoneylineUMass Minutemen ML-235-227-0.7%
TotalOver 51.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas Tech
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.2 · getting 1.3 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 37.5.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →
Market
Texas Tech by 37.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI
Texas Tech by 27
Sagarin
hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
Massey
Texas Tech by 35
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 34.53.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 34.5opened Texas Tech by 38.5now Texas Tech by 37.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas Tech by 38.5 to Texas Tech by 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.23.3 pts under the market
Massey
50.15.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.24.3 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 55.5now 55.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLSam Houston ML
Kalshi
Sam Houston +37.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Sam Houston): FanDuel +37.5 at -110 (4.6%).
Blowout line
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (0.9%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston).

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 34.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI-27.0-2379
Sagarinhasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
Massey-35.0
Market (1 books)-37.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.551.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +37.5-110-132+4.6%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at Toledo
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says San Diego State by 2.5, our data says San Diego State by 1
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says San Diego State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 1. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
San Diego State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI
Toledo by 3.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
Massey
Toledo by 4
Nasty Number
San Diego State by 11.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number San Diego State by 1opened San Diego State by 2.5now San Diego State by 2.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.88.7 pts under the market
Massey
48.60.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.74.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 48.5now 49.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Toledo +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Toledo): FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.7%).
Not Nasty
Toledo to win · +110 at FanDuel
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Toledo to win): FanDuel +110 (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (0.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Full detail
We settle onSan Diego State by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI-3.5-145
Sagarinhasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
Massey-4.0-147
Market (5 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.544.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadToledo Rockets +2.5-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineToledo Rockets ML+110+113-0.6%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm
No bet
market says Nebraska by 4.5, our data says Nebraska by 5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Michigan State →
Market
Nebraska by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI
Nebraska by 7.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
Massey
Nebraska by 3
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 5opened Nebraska by 5.5now Nebraska by 4.5FriSatSun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 5.5 to Nebraska by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.13.6 pts over the market
Massey
51.53 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.83.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 52.5now 49.5FriSatSun

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Nebraska -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): FanDuel -4.5 at -106 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-3.6%).
Not Nasty
Nebraska to win · -184 at FanDuel
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): FanDuel -184 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -192 (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (0.8%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-3.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Michigan State).

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI+7.5+221
Sagarinhasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
Massey+3.0+133
Market (9 books)+4.5+179
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNebraska Cornhuskers -4.5-110+105-3.6%
MoneylineNebraska Cornhuskers ML-184-169-1.9%
TotalOver 48.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.0.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pm
No bet
market says Virginia by 20.5, our data says Virginia by 19
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 20.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI
Virginia by 15.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
Massey
Virginia by 26
Nasty Number
Virginia by 191.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 19opened Virginia by 21.5now Virginia by 20.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 21.5 to Virginia by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.44.1 pts under the market
Massey
53.71.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.62.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 55.5now 55.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
Kalshi-1429 93¢
All 3 books
Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
Kalshi-1429 93¢
FanDuel-20.5 -11055.5 -110-1700+890
ReBet-20.5 -119-1493+660

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Delaware): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-0.2%).
Blowout line
Delaware to win · +890 at FanDuel
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Delaware to win): FanDuel +890 (1.0%).
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-0.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $153 available; Under 55.5, only $153 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 1930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI-15.5-515
Sagarinhasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
Massey-26.0-2106
Market (2 books)-20.5-1290
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +20.5-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+890+798priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pm
Under 54
should be 51 · getting 3.2 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →
Market
Miami by 42
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI
Miami by 42
Sagarin
hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
Massey
Miami by 38.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 420 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
41.412.8 pts under the market
Massey
47.66.6 pts under the market
Weather
-1.076% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
43.510.7 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 10.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.5opened 54.5now 54.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢
All 4 books
Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢
Courtside-42.5 -10854.5 -108
DraftKings-42.5 -11054.5 -110
FanDuel-41.5 -11553.5 -115

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami -42.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Miami): FanDuel -41.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · DraftKings -42.5 at -110 (-3.9%).
Blowout line
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (6.4%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (5.1%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (5.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 4230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI-42.0
Sagarinhasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
Massey-38.5
Market (3 books)-42.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.043.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami Hurricanes -42.0-110+101-2.6%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-137shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says Alabama by 11.5, our data says Alabama by 12
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 11.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI
Alabama by 12.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Massey
Alabama by 13
Nasty Number
Alabama by 120.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 12opened Alabama by 11.5now Alabama by 11.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
41.311.7 pts under the market
Massey
51.41.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.46.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 6.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.4opened 51.5now 52.5Sat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-490 82¢+373 20¢
All 9 books
Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-490 82¢+373 20¢
Bally Bet-11.5 -11253.5 -110-530+390
betPARX-11.5 -11253.5 -110-530+390
BetRivers-11.5 -11353.5 -112-530+370
Courtside-11.5 -10852.5 -108-440+360
DraftKings-11.5 -11052.5 -110-455+350
FanDuel-12.5 -11055.5 -110-520+385
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11051.5 -120-475+350
ReBet-11.5 -11451.5 -125-526+330

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -11.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings -11.5 at -110 (-4.4%) · Kalshi -11.5 at 52¢ (-5.7%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
Alabama to win · -455 at DraftKings
We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -455 (-4.4%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-5.5%) · FanDuel -520 (-6.3%).
Off the band
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (8.7%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (0.0%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $196 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI-12.5-372
Sagarinhasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Massey-13.0-388
Market (8 books)-11.5-447
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.046.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -11.5-110+108-4.4%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-455-346priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.0-110-123shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.5.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Utah State by 2.5, our data says Utah State by 2
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →
Market
Utah State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI
Troy by 0.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
Massey
Utah State by 7
Nasty Number
Utah State by 20.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.80.7 pts under the market
Massey
52.31.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.
Troy +2.5 · -104 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Troy): FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
Troy to win · +115
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Troy to win): FanDuel +116 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-1.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail
We settle onUtah State by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI+0.5+106
Sagarinhasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
Massey-7.0-207
Market (3 books)-2.5-126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTroy Trojans +2.5-104-100-1.0%
MoneylineTroy Trojans ML+115+121-1.2%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pm
No bet
market says Mississippi State by 3.5, our data says Mississippi State by 4
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Mississippi State by 3.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI
Mississippi State by 6
Sagarin
hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
Mississippi State by 40.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Mississippi State by 4opened Mississippi State by 3.5now Mississippi State by 3.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58
The Four
SP+ pace
54.23.8 pts under the market
Massey
56.11.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.12.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.1opened 57.5now 57.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢57.5 -121 53¢-182 63¢
All 9 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢57.5 -121 53¢-182 63¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10758.5 -108-165+135
betPARX-3.5 -10758.5 -108-165+135
BetRivers-3.5 -10858.5 -109-167+133
Courtside-3 -10857.5 -108-152+133
DraftKings-3 -11057.5 -110-155+130
FanDuel-3.5 -11558.5 -110-178+146
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -11057.5 -115-175+145
ReBet-3.5 -11457.5 -119-187+139

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -3.5 at -115 (-5.5%).
Not Nasty
Mississippi State to win · -155 at DraftKings
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win): DraftKings -155 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -178 (-4.3%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-4.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 58.0 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 53¢ (-4.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +3.5, only $414 available; Missouri Tigers ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMississippi State by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI-6.0-180
Sagarinhasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
MasseyPK+102
Market (8 books)-3.5-153
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.055.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMississippi State Bulldogs -3.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineMississippi State Bulldogs ML-155-148-1.1%
TotalUnder 58.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.5.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm
Under 59.5
should be 58.4 · getting 1.1 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 34.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI
SMU by 28
Sagarin
hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
Massey
SMU by 29
Nasty Number
SMU by 331.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.58 pts under the market
Massey
56.72.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.15.4 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Missouri State +34.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): FanDuel +34.5 at -110 (-0.1%).
Blowout line
Missouri State to win · +4000 at FanDuel
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): FanDuel +4000 (-0.9%).
Off the band
the Under 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. That's 5.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 59.5 at -115 (-0.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 3321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI-28.0-2727
Sagarinhasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
Massey-29.0-3184
Market (3 books)-34.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.554.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri State Bears +34.5-110-109-0.1%
MoneylineMissouri State Bears ML+4000+6353priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 59.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm
No bet
market says Oregon State by 11, our data says Oregon State by 12
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
Oregon State by 11
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI
Oregon State by 14
Sagarin
hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
Massey
Oregon State by 11.5
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 120.9 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.49.1 pts under the market
Massey
53.60.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.55 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5 points of the book.
Oregon State -11.0 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): FanDuel -10.5 at -115 (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
Oregon State to win · -502
We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): FanDuel -480 (-5.2%).
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (1.4%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI+14.0+432
Sagarinhasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
Massey+11.5+329
Market (2 books)+11.0+439
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.549.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers -11.0-110+105-3.6%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML-502-345priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pm
No bet
market says Fresno State by 13, our data says Fresno State by 14
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 13
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI
Fresno State by 15
Sagarin
hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
Massey
Fresno State by 15
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 140.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.24.3 pts under the market
Massey
44.80.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.52 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.
Fresno State -13.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.7%).
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · -550 at FanDuel
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): FanDuel -550 (-3.6%).
Off the band
the Under 44.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI-15.0-501
Sagarinhasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
Massey-15.0-503
Market (3 books)-13.0-491
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.542.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs -13.0-110-104-1.4%
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML-550-427priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pm
No bet
market says Georgia Tech by 5, our data says Georgia Tech by 6
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 6. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →
Market
Georgia Tech by 5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI
Georgia Tech by 8
Sagarin
hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
Massey
Georgia Tech by 7
Nasty Number
Georgia Tech by 60.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 6opened Georgia Tech by 5.5now Georgia Tech by 5.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.60.9 pts under the market
Massey
54.26.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.42.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢
All 3 books
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢
FanDuel+5.5 -11547.5 -110+155-188
ReBet+4.5 -11147.5 -114+167-228

Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -5.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-2.5%).
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · -188 at FanDuel
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -188 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Stanford).

Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $459 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $473 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML, only $402 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Tech by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI+8.0+223
Sagarinhasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
Massey+7.0+201
Market (2 books)+5.0+185
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0-110+102-2.8%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML-188-181-0.8%
TotalOver 47.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Sun Sep 27

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Panthers by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Panthers by 1.5
FPI
Panthers by 2
Sagarin
Panthers by 1
Massey
Browns by 2.5
Nasty Number
Panthers by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5
The Four
Massey
46.26.8 pts over the market
FPI
40.10.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.13.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.8 points of the book.
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
Kalshi+124 43¢-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 +10038.5 -115
All 13 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
Kalshi+124 43¢-155 59¢
Bally Bet+3 -11739.5 -112+123-150
BetOnline.ag+2.5 +10038.5 -115
betPARX+3 -11739.5 -112+123-150
BetRivers+3 -11739.5 -112+123-150
BetUS+2.5 +10038.5 -115
Caesars+2.5 -10339.5 -109+125-148
DraftKings+2.5 -10540.5 -110+120-142
FanDuel+3 -11239.5 -105+130-154
Fliff+2.5 +10039.5 -115+120-155
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10538.5 -113
MyBookie.ag+3 -11039.5 -110+120-154
ReBet+2.5 +10039.5 -110+123-151

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -112 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): FanDuel +3 at -112 (-0.6%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-3.2%).
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +130 at FanDuel
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +130 (-0.8%) · Caesars or Kalshi +125 (-1.8%) · DraftKings +120 (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 39.5 · -110
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (0.7%) · Caesars 39.5 at -109 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -110 (-3.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+120
FPI+2.0+128
Sagarin+1.0+110
Massey-2.5-131
Market (12 books)+2.5+137
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.543.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +3.0-112-109-0.6%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+130+134-0.8%
TotalOver 39.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Bengals by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 0.5
FPI
Bengals by 1
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Steelers by 2
Nasty Number
Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
48.52.6 pts over the market
FPI
44.41.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.50.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
Kalshi-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11046 -110
All 13 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
Kalshi-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10846 -110+114-137
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11046 -110
betPARX+2.5 -10846 -110+114-137
BetRivers+2.5 -10846 -110+114-137
BetUS+2.5 -11046 -110
Caesars+2.5 -11045.5 -115+112-132
DraftKings+2.5 -11045.5 -110+114-135
FanDuel+2.5 -11446.5 -105+110-130
Fliff+2.5 -11045.5 -115+110-135
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10546 -107
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11046 -110+108-138
ReBet+2.5 -11045.5 -110+110-135

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +112 at Caesars
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Steelers to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +110 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -105 (-2.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+103
FPI+1.0+113
SagarinPK+100
Massey-2.0-128
Market (12 books)+2.5+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.046.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +2.5-110+103-3.1%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+112+128-3.2%
TotalOver 46.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Texans by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 2
FPI
Texans by 1.5
Sagarin
Texans by 2
Massey
Texans by 1
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
Massey
51.16.5 pts over the market
FPI
43.80.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
47.52.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
Kalshi-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10544.5 -110
All 13 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
Kalshi-148 58¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10844.5 -112+118-143
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10544.5 -110
betPARX+2.5 -10844.5 -112+118-143
BetRivers+2.5 -10844.5 -112+118-143
BetUS+2.5 -10544.5 -110
Caesars+2.5 -10644.5 -110+119-141
DraftKings+2.5 -11045.5 -110+114-135
FanDuel+2.5 -10544.5 -110+122-144
Fliff+2.5 -10544.5 -115+115-145
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10044.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11045 -110+114-146
ReBet+2.5 -10544.5 -120+116-142

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-3.1%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +118
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Colts to win): FanDuel +122 (-2.1%) · Caesars +119 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +114 (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts ML, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+127
FPI+1.5+123
Sagarin+2.0+125
Massey+1.0+113
Market (12 books)+2.5+130
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.547.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +2.5-105+107-2.9%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+118+133-2.9%
TotalOver 44.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Jaguars by 1
FPI
Jaguars by 4
Sagarin
Jaguars by 1.5
Massey
Jaguars by 2.5
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
43.72.1 pts under the market
FPI
45.10.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.41.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
Kalshi-131 55¢
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11045.5 -110
All 13 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
Kalshi-131 55¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -10946 -112-132+110
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11045.5 -110
betPARX-2.5 -10946 -112-132+110
BetRivers-2.5 -10946 -112-132+110
BetUS-2.5 -11045.5 -110
Caesars-2.5 -10945.5 -114-132+112
DraftKings-2.5 -11045.5 -110-135+114
FanDuel-1.5 -11546.5 -105-132+112
Fliff-2.5 -11045.5 -115-135+110
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10545.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11046 -110-137+107
ReBet-2.5 -11045.5 -110-134+110

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-5.4%).
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · +110
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings +114 (-3.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel +112 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-1.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.

New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-114
FPI-4.0-164
Sagarin-1.5-122
Massey-2.5-142
Market (12 books)-2.5-122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots +2.5-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML+110+132-4.6%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →
Market
Chiefs by 8.5
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 8.5
FPI
Chiefs by 10
Sagarin
Chiefs by 10.5
Massey
Chiefs by 4
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
Massey
43.21.3 pts under the market
FPI
43.21.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.21.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.
Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
Kalshi-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag+8.5 -11044.5 -110
All 13 books
Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
Kalshi-564 84¢
Bally Bet+8.5 -11244.5 -109+350-480
BetOnline.ag+8.5 -11044.5 -110
betPARX+8.5 -11244.5 -109+350-480
BetRivers+8.5 -11244.5 -109+350-480
BetUS+8.5 -11044.5 -110
Caesars+8.5 -11044.5 -110+370-480
DraftKings+8.5 -11044.5 -110+350-455
FanDuel+8.5 -10544.5 -110+430-590
Fliff+8.5 -11044.5 -110+380-585
LowVig.ag+8.5 -10544.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+8.5 -11044.5 -110+370-549
ReBet+8.5 -11044.5 -110+380-526

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-6.7%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-7.9%).
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -455 at DraftKings
We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -455 (-7.5%) · Caesars -480 (-8.3%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-10.5%) · FanDuel -590 (-11.0%).
Off the band
the Under 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $139 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 8.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+8.5+294
FPI+10.0+341
Sagarin+10.5+369
Massey+4.0+161
Market (12 books)+8.5+455
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.543.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -8.5-110+119-6.7%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-455-292priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Giants by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Giants by 6
FPI
Giants by 7.5
Sagarin
Giants by 5.5
Massey
Giants by 5.5
Nasty Number
Giants by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
Massey
45.62.7 pts over the market
FPI
44.31.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.92 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
Kalshi-276 72¢+208 31¢
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11543 -110
All 13 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
Kalshi-276 72¢+208 31¢
Bally Bet-6 -11043 -108-275+220
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11543 -110
betPARX-6 -11043 -108-275+220
BetRivers-6 -11043 -108-275+220
BetUS-5.5 -11543 -110
Caesars-5.5 -11543 -110-265+215
DraftKings-5.5 -11043.5 -110-250+205
FanDuel-5.5 -12042.5 -110-275+225
Fliff-5.5 -12042.5 -115-285+205
LowVig.ag-5.5 -11043 -107
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11042.5 -110-270+202
ReBet-5.5 -12042.5 -120-260+206

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -5.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings -5.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · Caesars -5.5 at -115 (-5.1%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-6.2%).
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -250 at DraftKings
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -250 (-4.8%) · Caesars -265 (-6.0%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -275 (-6.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 43.0 · -110
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 42.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars 43 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onGiants by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-204
FPI-7.5-245
Sagarin-5.5-200
Massey-5.5-197
Market (12 books)-5.5-245
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.044.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants -5.5-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-250-200-4.8%
TotalOver 43.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Seahawks by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 1
FPI
Commanders by 6.5
Sagarin
Seahawks by 1
Massey
Seahawks by 3
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41.5
The Four
Massey
45.74 pts over the market
FPI
38.43.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
420.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
Kalshi-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10541.5 -110
All 13 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
Kalshi-143 57¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10942 -109+112-136
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10541.5 -110
betPARX+2.5 -10942 -109+112-136
BetRivers+2.5 -10942 -109+112-136
BetUS+2.5 -10541.5 -110
Caesars+2.5 -11041.5 -114+112-132
DraftKings+2.5 -11041.5 -110+114-135
FanDuel+1.5 -11042.5 -105+102-120
Fliff+2.5 -11541.5 -115+105-135
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10041.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11041.5 -110+105-133
ReBet+2.5 -11041.5 -110+107-131

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Commanders): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
Commanders to win · +112 at Caesars
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Commanders to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +102 (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 41.5 · -110
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 41.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-3.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $414 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.

Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+153
FPI-6.5-171
Sagarin+1.0+148
Massey+3.0+192
Market (12 books)+2.5+121
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.542.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington Commanders +2.5-110+103-3.1%
MoneylineWashington Commanders ML+112+128-3.2%
TotalOver 41.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm
No bet
market says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 8.5
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 10
FPI
49ers by 11
Sagarin
49ers by 12.5
Massey
49ers by 6.5
Nasty Number
49ers by 90.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48
The Four
Massey
471.1 pts under the market
FPI
490.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
Kalshi-490 82¢
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -11048.5 -110
All 13 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
Kalshi-490 82¢
Bally Bet-8.5 -10847.5 -113-500+365
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -11048.5 -110
betPARX-8.5 -10847.5 -113-500+365
BetRivers-8.5 -10847.5 -113-500+365
BetUS-8.5 -11048.5 -110
Caesars-8.5 -11048.5 -105-500+375
DraftKings-8.5 -11047.5 -110-455+350
FanDuel-8.5 -11548.5 -110-550+410
Fliff-8.5 -11548.5 -105-540+360
LowVig.ag-8.5 -10548.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11048 -110-461+320
ReBet-9.5 -11048.5 -109-450+330

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (49ers): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-5.4%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-6.5%).
Not Nasty
49ers to win · -455 at DraftKings
We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings -455 (-6.4%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-7.5%) · Caesars -500 (-7.8%) · FanDuel -550 (-9.1%).
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -110
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-4.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $146 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).

San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-10.0-332
FPI-11.0-380
Sagarin-12.5-472
Massey-6.5-219
Market (12 books)-8.5-441
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -8.5-110+113-5.4%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-455-309priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm
Buccaneers to win
our data says 57 in 100 · -116
A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Buccaneers by 1.5
The Four
nfelo
Buccaneers by 53.9 pts our side
FPI
Buccaneers by 5.54.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Buccaneers by 31.6 pts our side
Massey
Buccaneers by 10.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Buccaneers by 20.8 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Massey at Buccaneers by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
48.72.9 pts over the market
FPI
39.96 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.31.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
Kalshi-103 49¢
BetOnline.ag-1 -11046 -110
All 13 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
Kalshi-103 49¢
Bally Bet-1.5 -10845.5 -112-121+100
BetOnline.ag-1 -11046 -110
betPARX-1.5 -10845.5 -112-121+100
BetRivers-1.5 -10845.5 -112-121+100
BetUS-1 -11046 -110
Caesars-1.5 -11045.5 -114-120+101
DraftKings-1.5 -11045.5 -110-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 -10546.5 -110-116-102
Fliff-1.5 -11046.5 -110-125+100
LowVig.ag-1 -10546 -107
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11046 -110-126-101
ReBet-1.5 -11045.5 -120-123+101

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -1.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel -1.5 at -105 (2.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -1.5 at -110 (1.4%).
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel
We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel -116 (2.8%) · Caesars -120 (2.0%) · DraftKings -125 (1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onBuccaneers by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-139
FPI-5.5-147
Sagarin-3.0-106
Massey-1.0+120
Market (12 books)-1.5-111
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5-105-116+2.6%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML-116-130+2.8%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral
No bet
market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Ravens by 3
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 4
FPI
Ravens by 3
Sagarin
Ravens by 3
Massey
Ravens by 6
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
Massey
541.6 pts over the market
FPI
51.31.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.60.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
Kalshi+134 41¢-167 61¢
BetOnline.ag+3 -10652 -115
All 12 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
Kalshi+134 41¢-167 61¢
Bally Bet+3 -11752.5 -110+130-159
BetOnline.ag+3 -10652 -115
betPARX+3 -11752.5 -110+130-159
BetRivers+3 -11752.5 -110+130-159
BetUS+3 -10552 -115
Caesars+3 -10752.5 -109+132-157
DraftKings+3 -11052.5 -110+130-155
FanDuel+3.5 -11852.5 -105+148-176
Fliff+3.5 -12552.5 -110+135-170
LowVig.ag+3 -10152 -113
ReBet+3.5 -13352.5 -110+128-157

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -159
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -155 (-1.2%) · Caesars -157 (-1.5%) · Kalshi 61¢ (-3.0%) · FanDuel -176 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110
Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Caesars 52.5 at -109 (-2.4%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+4.0+163
FPI+3.0+140
Sagarin+3.0+146
Massey+6.0+214
Market (11 books)+3.0+148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -3.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-159-148-1.8%
TotalOver 52.5-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm
No bet
market says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 3
The Four
nfelo
Saints by 2.5
FPI
Saints by 4.5
Sagarin
Saints by 4
Massey
Saints by 3
Nasty Number
Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45
The Four
Massey
41.83.1 pts under the market
FPI
40.94.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.43.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
Kalshi-167 61¢+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -12044.5 -110
All 13 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
Kalshi-167 61¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3 -10845.5 -108-162+133
BetOnline.ag-3 -12044.5 -110
betPARX-3 -10845.5 -108-162+133
BetRivers-3 -10845.5 -108-162+133
BetUS-3 -12044.5 -110
Caesars-3 -11444.5 -118-164+139
DraftKings-3 -11045.5 -110-162+136
FanDuel-3 -11544.5 -115-174+146
Fliff-3.5 +10044.5 -115-175+135
LowVig.ag-3 -11644.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-3 -11045 -110-172+134
ReBet-3.5 -10545.5 -109-168+137

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -3 at -115 (-3.4%).
Not Nasty
Saints to win · -163 at DraftKings
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Saints to win): DraftKings -162 (-2.4%) · Caesars -164 (-2.7%) · Kalshi 61¢ (-3.2%) · FanDuel -174 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 45.0 · -110
Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (0.1%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -105 (-0.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-138
FPI-4.5-169
Sagarin-4.0-158
Massey-3.0-147
Market (12 books)-3.0-152
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.041.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints -3.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML-163-147-2.5%
TotalUnder 45.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pm
No bet
market says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Rams by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 2
FPI
Rams by 2.5
Sagarin
Rams by 2
Massey
Rams by 1
Nasty Number
Rams by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
44.41.8 pts under the market
FPI
41.94.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.23 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
Kalshi+109 46¢-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10545.5 -115
All 13 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
Kalshi+109 46¢-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -11346.5 -110+108-132
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10545.5 -115
betPARX+2.5 -11346.5 -110+108-132
BetRivers+2.5 -11346.5 -110+108-132
BetUS+2.5 -10545.5 -115
Caesars+2.5 -11046.5 -105+114-134
DraftKings+2.5 -11046.5 -110+114-135
FanDuel+2.5 -11246.5 -105+112-132
Fliff+2.5 -11546.5 -105+110-140
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10045.5 -113
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11046 -110+108-137
ReBet+2.5 -11046.5 -109+110-135

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Broncos to win · +110
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Broncos to win): DraftKings or Caesars +114 (-3.9%) · FanDuel +112 (-4.3%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+122
FPI+2.5+130
Sagarin+2.0+126
Massey+1.0+113
Market (12 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.043.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDenver Broncos +2.5-110+107-4.2%
MoneylineDenver Broncos ML+110+133-4.7%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-3-1.22 units · -24% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.9 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 6 posted picks
Open1call waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

0-2 · -2.00 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-1 · +0.82 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-4 · -2.11 units
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nastiest0-10.0%-1.0 usmall sample
Nasty Pick2-250.0%-0.2 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty2-250.0%-0.2 usmall sample
A Little Nasty14-1646.7%-3.2 u
Not Nasty127 gamesno call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 08:31.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 69 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey7.7054
FPI9.83109
SP+10.01109
The market10.19160
Sagarin11.75150

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.1355
Massey1.001.500.0254
SP+1.000.500.0155
Sagarin1.001.500.0869

The line archive, 160 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 59, and sat still 26. Our side taken at the open finished 0.47 points better than the close on average over 150 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.35, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.28, Kalshi 9.67, MyBookie.ag 9.80.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-3, +0.70 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 2.

NFL

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market11.1317
nfelo11.2617
Sagarin11.7317

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.55Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 71%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
Wyoming at Central MichiganUnder4040+0.0same side
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsOver44.544.5+0.0same side
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansOver46.546.5+0.0same side
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersCleveland +999+0.0flipped
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsNew York +3.53.53.5+0.0same side
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersLas Vegas +777+0.0flipped
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsMinnesota +5.55.55.5+0.0same side
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensNew Orleans +999+0.0same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansTennessee +777+0.0same side
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsOver4141+0.0flipped
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysOver50.550.5+0.0same side
New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsNew York +777+0.0same side
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 111 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.3 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+6014.718-25 (42%)12-13 (48%)
Massey6413.714-16 (47%)5-10 (33%)
The blend6514.014-21 (40%)9-9 (50%)

NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey36.13-0 (100%)
FPI118.6
The blend36.72-0 (100%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

73 priced · 27 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.
Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 86 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 4 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 9:00am

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 2.4Oregon Ducks at USC Trojanstoward Oregon Ducksagainst the public
  • → 2.1Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineersagainst the public
  • → 2.0Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia Bulldogstoward Georgia Bulldogswith the public
  • → 1.9Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
  • → 1.6Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskiestoward Washington Huskieswith the public
  • → 1.0Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Texas Longhornswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
9.21Points off per game at that weight
9.21The market on its own
69Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 69 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey547.70
FPI1119.85
SP+10910.01
The market17710.28
Sagarin16711.75

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.580-8548%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 816694 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.20 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi991.70
LowVig.ag2041.44
BetOnline.ag2101.44
DraftKings2361.41
FanDuel2731.31
BetRivers2461.27
BetMGM1991.24
Caesars1861.22
Bovada1991.21
BetUS1561.16
Pinnacle1981.14
MyBookie.ag1591.12
TOM1911.10
Fanatics1791.09
betPARX220.32
Bally Bet220.32
ReBet330.29
Hard Rock Bet260.23
theScore Bet220.20
Fliff230.17

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
  • SP+ updated 5 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 6 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
  • nfelo updated 4 days ago
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Built 9:15 AM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 7392.