Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 10:01 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

A LITTLE NASTYOregon Ducks at USC Trojans

Over 59.5

-118as called

NASTY PICKTexas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers

Texas A&M Aggies +9.5

-108as called

A LITTLE NASTYTulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks

Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0

-108as called

A LITTLE NASTYUMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets

Sacramento State Hornets +6.0

-110as called

NASTY PICKAir Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack

Nevada Wolf Pack +5.0

-105as called

NASTY PICKGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0

-108as called

A LITTLE NASTYMinnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies

Minnesota Golden Gophers +12.0

-105as called

Best on the board right now

Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is Damn Near Nasty. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Cardinals at 49ersMoved our way · 1 pt49ers -8-105 · 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this SauceNFL capSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi or DraftKings -7.5 at -107 (3.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (2.7%) · TOM -8 at -105 (2.5%) · Caesars -8 at -115 (0.3%).

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Saturday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.

Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -8. Every system has 49ers by 12.5; the market has 49ers by 8. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 1 sneaky; the strongest is Patriots +3 (Patriots at Jaguars) at 1.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.

If you're playing one, it's Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -8. The ratings make it 49ers by 12.5. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.

Buck

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Cardinals at 49ersMoved our way · 1 pt49ers -8-105 · 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this SauceNFL capSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi or DraftKings -7.5 at -107 (3.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (2.7%) · TOM -8 at -105 (2.5%) · Caesars -8 at -115 (0.3%).

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Patriots at JaguarsPatriots +3should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.

Moved closer since the 8:28pm build

Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 8:28pm build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:32pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:17am✓MasseySat 6:16am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 96 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPISat 6:16am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 11:55am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 28 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Tomorrow

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -8.0.

GameThe call

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

49ers -8Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 49ers -10 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was -8.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. 49ers -8.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.53.7 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 14.56.7 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 134.9 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 90.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 101.8 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

45.52.5 pts under the market

FPI

50.22.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.9on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-8 -105	48 -110	-360	+270
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-8.5 +111	47.5 -117	-352	+288

All 25 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-8 -105	48 -110	-360	+270
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -112	47.5 -113	-455	+335
BetAnything	-7.5 -110	48 -110	-375	+297
BetMGM	-7.5 -110	48 -108	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-8 -105	48 -110	-360	+289
betPARX	-7.5 -112	47.5 -113	-455	+335
BetRivers	-7.5 -112	47.5 -113	-455	+335
BetUS	-9 +105	48 -110	-360	+290
Bovada	-7.5 -105	48 -110	-360	+280
Caesars	-8 -115	47.5 -112	-380	+300
Courtside	—	68.5 -3093	-369	+308
DraftKings	-7.5 -108	47.5 -115	-380	+300
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	48 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-7.5 -110	47.5 -120	-420	+330
Fliff	-7.5 -115	48.5 -105	-465	+320
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-7.5 +100	48 -103	-360	+289
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	48 -110	-370	+280
Pinnacle	-8.5 +111	47.5 -117	-352	+288
Polymarket	-7.5 +100	48.5 +100	-355	+335
ReBet	-7.5 -110	48 -110	-360	+290
theScore Bet	-7 -115	48.5 -105	-380	+290

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi or DraftKings -7.5 at -107 (3.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (2.7%) · TOM -8 at -105 (2.5%) · Caesars -8 at -115 (0.3%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -360 at TOM

We make it 80 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 80 cents fair, a play under 76. Where, best first (49ers to win): TOM -360 (1.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -375 (0.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -380 (0.6%) · FanDuel -420 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 52¢ (-1.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -8.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.

Also out: Demarcus Robinson (WR, 49ers), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

theScore Bet still has 49ers -7.0 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 1040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-451
FPI	-14.5	-649
Sagarin	-13.0	-497
Massey	-9.0	-356
Market (22 books)	-8.0	-344

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.0	-105	-116	+2.5%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-360	-394	+1.5%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Patriots +3

should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2.5

A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 3TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

a pick'em3 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 2.50.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Jaguars by 12.2 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 12 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Patriots. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

The Four

Massey

40.45.6 pts under the market

FPI

44.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.53.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-3 -104	46 -112	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -117	-149	+132

All 25 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-3 -104	46 -112	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetAnything	-2.5 -120	46 -110	-155	+135
BetMGM	-3 -105	46 -108	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -104	46 -112	-155	+135
betPARX	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetRivers	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetUS	-3 +100	46 -110	-155	+134
Bovada	-2.5 -120	46 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -105	46 -112	-154	+130
Courtside	—	68.5 -5355	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -105	46.5 -105	-155	+130
Fanatics	-3 -105	46 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	45.5 -115	-158	+134
Fliff	-2.5 -125	45.5 -115	-160	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 +101	46 -109	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	-158	+128
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -117	-149	+132
Polymarket	-2.5 -117	46.5 +100	-144	+138
ReBet	-3 -110	46 -110	-154	+131
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	45.5 -115	-150	+130

Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +134 (41¢) at Kalshi

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +134 (2.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +130 (1.5%) · TOM +125 (0.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars or TOM 46 at -108 (1.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 46.5 at -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	PK	-100
FPI	-2.5	-128
Sagarin	-1.0	-104
Massey	-1.0	-105
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+134	+122	+2.3%
Spread	New England Patriots +3.0	-116	-123	+1.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-108	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at Lions

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Lions -6.5

should be Lions -7.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Lions →

Market

Lions by 6.5TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 92.7 pts our side

FPI

Lions by 81.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Lions by 8.52.1 pts our side

Massey

Lions by 8.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Lions by 7.50.8 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Lions. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

49.41.4 pts over the market

FPI

47.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.40.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Jets ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-305	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Pinnacle	-7 +102	48.5 -106	-305	+255

All 25 books

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Jets ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-305	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	48 -115	-315	+245
BetMGM	-6.5 -118	48 -110	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-305	+249
betPARX	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetRivers	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetUS	-6.5 -115	48 -115	-305	+253
Bovada	-6.5 -120	48.5 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-6.5 -117	48.5 -107	-320	+250
Courtside	—	61.5 -1718	-302	+256
DraftKings	-6.5 -120	48.5 -108	-310	+250
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	48 -110	-320	+250
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	48.5 -106	-310	+250
Fliff	-6.5 -120	48.5 -105	-350	+250
Hard Rock Bet	-7 +100	48 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 +100	48 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 +100	48 -110	-325	+250
LowVig.ag	-7.5 +123	48 -113	-305	+249
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	48 -110	-300	+234
Pinnacle	-7 +102	48.5 -106	-305	+255
Polymarket	-6.5 -108	48.5 -104	-270	+257
ReBet	-6.5 -120	48 -110	-295	+240
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	48.5 -105	-290	+240

Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Lions): Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (1.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -115 (1.0%) · TOM -6.5 at -116 (0.7%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (0.5%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -118 (0.3%).

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -305 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Lions to win): Kalshi 73¢ (1.0%) · BetMGM -300 (0.4%) · TOM -305 (0.0%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -310 (-0.3%) · Caesars or Fanatics -320 (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or Fanatics 48 at -110 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-2.0%) · Caesars 48.5 at -107 (-2.2%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · TOM 48 at -115 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.0	-366
FPI	-8.0	-325
Sagarin	-8.5	-351
Massey	-8.5	-337
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-292

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -6.5	-116	-120	+0.7%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-305	-306	+0.0%
Total	Over 48.0	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Giants to win

our data says 59 in 100 · -135

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 4.51.8 pts our side

FPI

a pick'em2.6 pts against us

Sagarin

Giants by 4.52 pts our side

Massey

Giants by 4.52 pts our side

Nasty Number

Giants by 30.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.76.2 pts over the market

FPI

39.41.9 pts over the market

Weather

-5.222 mph wind, 75% chance of rain, takes 5.2 points off

Nasty Number

36.41.1 pts under the market

Under 37.5 is a weather call. 22 mph wind and 75% chance of rain, worth about 5.2 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	37.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	38.5 +103	-132	+118

All 25 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	37.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	38 -108	-141	+117
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-140	+120
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	37.5 -102	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-138	+118
betPARX	-2.5 -114	38 -108	-141	+117
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	38 -108	-141	+117
BetUS	-2 -115	37 -110	-140	+120
Bovada	-2.5 -110	38 -110	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -113	37.5 -112	-139	+118
Courtside	—	56.5 -2951	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+114
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	37.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -114	37.5 -102	-142	+120
Fliff	-2.5 -115	37.5 -115	-135	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	37.5 -107	-138	+118
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-142	+116
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	38.5 +103	-132	+118
Polymarket	-2.5 -104	38.5 +108	-127	+122
ReBet	-2 -125	37.5 -110	-139	+118
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	37.5 -105	-140	+120

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings or TOM -2.5 at -110 (0.7%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (0.0%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -135 at DraftKings

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings or TOM -135 (1.2%) · Kalshi 56¢ (1.0%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics -139 (0.5%) · FanDuel -142 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 37.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 5.2 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 37.5 at -102 (0.3%) · Kalshi 37.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 37.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Caesars 37.5 at -112 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants to win · -135 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 22 mph wind, 64°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

BetUS has the total at 37 while Pinnacle is at 38.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-192
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-4.5	-197
Massey	-4.5	-197
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.5	36.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-135	-142	+1.2%
Spread	New York Giants -2.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Total	Over 37.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 13:02; total has moved down 4.5.

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Seahawks -7.5

should be Seahawks -9 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was -2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 9. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 8TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 91.1 pts our side

FPI

Seahawks by 91 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 71 pts against us

Massey

Seahawks by 113 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 90.8 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Seahawks. Sagarin at Seahawks by 7 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM

The Four

Massey

44.54.5 pts over the market

FPI

44.24.2 pts over the market

Weather

-2.818 mph wind, takes 2.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.51.5 pts over the market

Under 40 is a weather call. 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+8 -107	40 -115	+290	-380
Kalshi	+7.5 -103 49¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -125	40.5 +101	+301	-369

All 25 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+8 -107	40 -115	+290	-380
Kalshi	+7.5 -103 49¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetAnything	+8 -110	40 -115	+292	-370
BetMGM	+8 -110	40 -120	+310	-375
BetOnline.ag	+8 -110	40 -115	+296	-370
betPARX	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetRivers	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetUS	+9 -125	40 -115	+290	-360
Bovada	+8 -110	40 -110	+290	-380
Caesars	+7.5 -108	40 -113	+295	-390
Courtside	—	60.5 -3507	+319	-383
DraftKings	+7.5 -102	40.5 -102	+310	-395
Fanatics	+8 -110	40.5 -105	+310	-400
FanDuel	+7.5 -110	40.5 -105	+330	-420
Fliff	+7.5 -105	40.5 -105	+310	-450
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
LowVig.ag	+8 -105	40 -113	+296	-370
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	40 -110	+295	-391
Pinnacle	+9.5 -125	40.5 +101	+301	-369
Polymarket	+7.5 +104	39.5 -108	+317	-335
ReBet	+8 -110	40 -110	+330	-420
theScore Bet	+7.5 -105	39.5 -115	+300	-400

Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Seahawks): FanDuel -7.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars -7.5 at -112 (0.3%) · BetMGM -8 at -108 (-0.1%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -380 at TOM

We make it 78 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 78 cents fair, a play under 74. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): Kalshi 77¢ (-0.1%) · BetMGM -375 (-0.8%) · TOM -380 (-1.0%) · Caesars -390 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -395 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 40.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 44. Weather takes 2.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 40.5 at -102 (0.6%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 52¢ (0.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 40.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · Caesars 40 at -113 (-0.4%) · TOM 40 at -115 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Seahawks -7.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 63°F, 44% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +8.5. The market has moved 6.3 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.7 consensus.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +303 here against +348 consensus.

Caesars still has Seahawks -7.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 9.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 1.2% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 940% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.0	+266
FPI	+9.0	+258
Sagarin	+7.0	+194
Massey	+11.0	+351
Market (22 books)	+8.0	+303

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	41.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -7.5	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-380	-358	-1.0%
Total	Over 40.0	-115	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.3 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-20 08:31; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.7 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +303 here against +348 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Steelers +3.5

should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 1.52.1 pts our side

FPI

Bengals by 21.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Bengals by 1.52 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em3.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bengals by 30.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

Massey

43.80.8 pts over the market

FPI

42.20.8 pts under the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.21.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+150	-180
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -118	43 +103	+155	-177

All 25 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+150	-180
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetAnything	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+160	-185
BetMGM	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+157	-180
betPARX	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetRivers	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetUS	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+155	-180
Bovada	+3 +100	42.5 -110	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+157	-190
Courtside	—	62.5 -1138	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	42.5 -112	+154	-185
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+150	-180
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	42.5 -115	+152	-180
Fliff	+3.5 -115	42.5 -115	+155	-200
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+160	-190
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -116	43 -102	+157	-180
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+151	-188
Pinnacle	+3.5 -118	43 +103	+155	-177
Polymarket	+3.5 -113	42.5 -104	+156	-163
ReBet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+155	-183
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -115	+155	-185

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (1.0%) · TOM +3.5 at -115 (0.3%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (-0.3%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (-0.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +157 at Caesars

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Steelers to win): Caesars +157 (0.8%) · DraftKings +154 (0.4%) · FanDuel +152 (0.1%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +150 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 39¢ (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-2.0%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-2.0%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-2.2%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.

Bovada still has Bengals -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Bengals by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+109
FPI	+2.0	+121
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	PK	+100
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	41.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+157	+152	+0.8%
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5	-115	-116	+0.3%
Total	Under 43.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at Bills

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bills -7.5

should be Bills -7.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 7.5TOM, -101

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 8.51.1 pts our side

FPI

Bills by 91.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Bills by 5.51.9 pts against us

Massey

Bills by 91.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bills by 7.50.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Bills. Sagarin at Bills by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

Massey

48.71.3 pts under the market

FPI

49.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.91.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+265
Pinnacle	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-332	+274

All 24 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+265
Bally Bet	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetAnything	-7 -115	49.5 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-7 -112	50 -108	-350	+275
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+274
betPARX	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetRivers	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetUS	-7.5 +100	50 -110	-340	+275
Bovada	-7 -115	50 -110	-340	+270
Caesars	-7 -114	50 -110	-335	+265
Courtside	—	72.5 -3507	-331	+277
DraftKings	-7 -112	49.5 -115	-340	+270
Fanatics	-7 -115	50 -110	-350	+275
FanDuel	-7.5 -102	50.5 -105	-370	+295
Fliff	-7.5 -105	50.5 -105	-415	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-340	+274
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	50 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-332	+274
Polymarket	-7.5 +104	49.5	-300	+285
ReBet	-7 -110	50 -110	-319	+260
theScore Bet	-7.5 +100	50.5 -105	-360	+280

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -7.5 · -101 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.6%) · TOM -7.5 at -101 (0.2%) · Caesars -7 at -114 (0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · Fanatics -7 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · -340 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bills to win): Caesars -335 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or TOM -340 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -370 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · Caesars 50 at -109 (-1.6%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $239 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.

DraftKings still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.1% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-348
FPI	-9.0	-363
Sagarin	-5.5	-217
Massey	-9.0	-362
Market (22 books)	-7.5	-325

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bills -7.5	-101	-102	+0.2%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	-340	-322	-0.9%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Texans -1.5

should be Texans -1.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 1.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 0.5

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Texans by 0.5

Massey

Colts by 0.5

Nasty Number

Texans by 1.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.57 pts over the market

FPI

43.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.64.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	42.5 -105	+104	-124
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Pinnacle	+2 -114	42.5 -103	+108	-121

All 25 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	42.5 -105	+104	-124
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-122
BetMGM	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	42.5 -105	+104	-124
betPARX	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetRivers	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetUS	+1 -105	42.5 -110	+102	-122
Bovada	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+105	-125
Caesars	+1.5 -105	42.5 -113	+110	-129
Courtside	—	58.5 -2279	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -102	42.5 -112	+105	-125
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	42.5 -114	+110	-130
Fliff	+1.5 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-130
Hard Rock Bet	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -108	42.5 -102	+104	-124
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+103	-126
Pinnacle	+2 -114	42.5 -103	+108	-121
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	42.5 +104	+108	-113
ReBet	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+106	-125
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	42.5 -105	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +1.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +1.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +2 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel or TOM +1.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 50¢ (-1.4%) · Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +110 at Caesars

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Colts to win): Caesars or FanDuel +110 (0.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-0.9%) · TOM +104 (-1.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 42.5 at -105 (2.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Caesars 42.5 at -113 (0.7%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -114 (0.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+101
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	+0.5	+102
Massey	-0.5	-101
Market (22 books)	+1.5	+109

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	46.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+110	+109	+0.2%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +1.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Total	Over 42.5	-105	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 13:02; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Panthers -2

should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 2TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2.50.7 pts our side

FPI

Panthers by 31 pts our side

Sagarin

Panthers by 2on the market

Massey

Browns by 0.52.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Panthers. Massey at Browns by 0.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Panthers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

43.91.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.42.6 pts under the market

Weather

-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off

Nasty Number

40.21.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2 -115	42 -115	+110	-130
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+114 45¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -119	42 -110	+110	-124

All 25 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2 -115	42 -115	+110	-130
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+114 45¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetAnything	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+118	-138
BetMGM	+1.5 -108	42.5 -110	+110	-130
BetOnline.ag	+2 -108	42 -115	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetUS	+2 -105	42.5 -110	+112	-132
Bovada	+1.5 -110	42 -115	+105	-125
Caesars	+2.5 -113	42.5 -106	+118	-139
Courtside	—	61.5 -2584	+112	-127
DraftKings	+1.5 -108	42.5 -110	+110	-130
Fanatics	+2 -110	42 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -112	41.5 -115	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+115	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
LowVig.ag	+2 -103	42 -113	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+110	-135
Pinnacle	+2.5 -119	42 -110	+110	-124
Polymarket	+1.5 +104	42.5 +100	+122	-127
ReBet	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+112	-132
theScore Bet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers -2.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM -2 at -105 (0.2%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -112 (0.0%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · -130 at DraftKings

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Panthers to win): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -130 (-1.0%) · Caesars -139 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 42.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM 42 at -105 (0.2%) · Kalshi 42.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-0.4%) · Fanatics 42 at -110 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

DraftKings still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.5	+135
FPI	+3.0	+147
Sagarin	+2.0	+115
Massey	-0.5	-100
Market (22 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	40.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers -2.0	-105	-106	+0.2%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	-130	-125	-1.0%
Total	Under 42.0	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Cleveland Browns since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.6.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Chiefs -10

should be Chiefs -10 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 10TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 9.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 9.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 100.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.91.6 pts under the market

FPI

45.3on the market

Nasty Number

44.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+10 -110	45.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5 -112 51¢	45.5 +101 48¢	+530 15¢	-660 86¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -123	45 -110	+518	-711

All 25 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+10 -110	45.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5 -112 51¢	45.5 +101 48¢	+530 15¢	-660 86¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetAnything	+10 -110	45 -110	+500	-700
BetMGM	+10 -105	45.5 -108	+500	-650
BetOnline.ag	+10 -110	45.5 -105	+488	-670
betPARX	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetRivers	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetUS	+10 -110	45 -110	+485	-670
Bovada	+10 -115	45 -115	+500	-750
Caesars	+10 -108	45 -113	+475	-675
Courtside	—	62.5 -1635	+439	-553
DraftKings	+10 -112	45.5 -105	+425	-575
Fanatics	+10 -110	45.5 -105	+460	-650
FanDuel	+10.5 -114	45.5 -105	+500	-700
Fliff	+10.5 -115	45.5 -110	+515	-860
Hard Rock Bet	+10 -105	45.5 -110	+500	-750
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+10 -105	45.5 -110	+500	-750
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+10 -105	45.5 -110	+500	-750
LowVig.ag	+10 -108	45.5 -102	+488	-670
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	45 -110	+446	-680
Pinnacle	+10.5 -123	45 -110	+518	-711
Polymarket	+10.5 -113	44.5	+525	-567
ReBet	+10 -109	45 -110	+410	-549
theScore Bet	+10 -110	45.5 -105	+475	-750

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -10.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings -10 at -108 (-1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM -10 at -110 (-1.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM -10 at -112 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -106 (-2.8%) · Kalshi -10.5 at 50¢ (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -575 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -575 (-4.6%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi -650 (-6.1%) · Caesars -675 (-6.5%) · FanDuel -700 (-6.9%).

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 45 at -107 (-1.8%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 45.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.3 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.5	+374
FPI	+10.5	+429
Sagarin	+9.5	+384
Massey	+4.5	+193
Market (22 books)	+10.0	+626

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -10.0	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-575	-415	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.3 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

Vikings -1

should be Vikings -1 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Vikings by 1TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 0.5

FPI

Vikings by 0.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 0.5

Massey

Vikings by 2

Nasty Number

Vikings by 10.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.71.2 pts over the market

FPI

41.21.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 -110	42.5 -110	-102	-118
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+2 -117	43 +103	+105	-118

All 25 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 -110	42.5 -110	-102	-118
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetAnything	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+100	-120
BetMGM	+1 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -116	42.5 -110	+100	-120
betPARX	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetRivers	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetUS	PK +100	42.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+1 -105	42.5 -105	+100	-120
Caesars	+1.5 -113	42.5 -109	+105	-124
Courtside	—	55.5 -825	+102	-118
DraftKings	+1.5 -112	42.5 -110	+100	-120
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	42.5 -115	+104	-122
Fliff	+1.5 -115	42.5 -115	+100	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -112	42.5 -107	+100	-120
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+101	-123
Pinnacle	+2 -117	43 +103	+105	-118
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	42.5 +100	+108	-113
ReBet	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-120
theScore Bet	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -1.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): Kalshi -1.5 at 49¢ (-1.4%) · TOM -1 at -110 (-1.8%) · Caesars -1.5 at -107 (-2.3%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -118 at TOM

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (Vikings to win): TOM -118 (-2.3%) · DraftKings -120 (-2.7%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -121 (-2.9%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics -124 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 42.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -115 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Vikings).

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.7 consensus.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +102 here against +112 consensus.

TOM still has Vikings -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Vikings by 2.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+102
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	+2.0	+120
Market (22 books)	+1.0	+102

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -1.0	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-118	-108	-2.3%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 16:31; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.7 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +102 here against +112 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutral

Ravens -3

should be Ravens -3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3TOM, +103

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 2

FPI

Ravens by 1

Sagarin

Ravens by 1.5

Massey

Ravens by 4

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

Massey

52.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

52.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 +103	53.5 -108	+152	-182
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	53 -112	+155	-177

All 25 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 +103	53.5 -108	+152	-182
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetAnything	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+155	-180
BetMGM	+3.5 -118	53.5 -108	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3 +103	53.5 -108	+159	-182
betPARX	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetUS	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+155	-180
Bovada	+3.5 -120	53.5 -105	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -114	53.5 -107	+149	-176
Courtside	—	31.5 +1222	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3 -102	53.5 -108	+140	-166
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -114	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+140	-180
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -115	53.5 -105	+159	-182
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+153	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	53 -112	+155	-177
Polymarket	+3.5 -113	53.5 +104	+156	-163
ReBet	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+149	-177
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	52.5 -115	+155	-185

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -118 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -118 (-2.8%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 48¢ (-3.0%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-3.6%) · TOM -3 at -123 (-3.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -166 at DraftKings

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -166 (-1.6%) · Caesars -176 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -178 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -180 (-3.5%) · TOM or Kalshi -182 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or TOM 53.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (-2.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

DraftKings still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+119
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+113
Massey	+4.0	+188
Market (22 books)	+3.0	+159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-118	-105	-2.8%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-166	-155	-1.6%
Total	Under 53.5	-112	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Saints -3

should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 3

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 3.5

Massey

Saints by 3.5

Nasty Number

Saints by 3.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.53 pts under the market

FPI

41.22.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.82.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	44 +101	-182	+159

All 25 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetAnything	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3 -118	44 -110	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+155
betPARX	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetRivers	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetUS	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-175	+150
Bovada	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-185	+160
Caesars	-3.5 -104	43.5 -112	-179	+151
Courtside	—	62.5 -1050	-188	+163
DraftKings	-3.5 -102	43.5 -118	-192	+160
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3 -120	43.5 -112	-180	+152
Fliff	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-185	+155
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-185	+155
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-185	+155
LowVig.ag	-3.5 +107	43.5 -113	-177	+155
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	44 -110	-175	+142
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	44 +101	-182	+159
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	43.5	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -110	-179	+151
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-185	+155

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -120 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): BetMGM -3 at -118 (-0.0%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -3.5 at +101 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or TOM -3 at -120 (-0.4%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · Caesars -3.5 at -104 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -177 at TOM

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Saints to win): Kalshi or BetMGM -175 (-0.5%) · TOM -177 (-0.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Fanatics -179 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -192 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -102 (0.3%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · TOM 43.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel 43.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.

BetUS still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-158
FPI	-4.5	-191
Sagarin	-3.5	-177
Massey	-3.5	-174
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	40.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-120	-118	-0.4%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-177	-171	-0.7%
Total	Under 43.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

Rams -2

should be Rams -2 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Rams by 2TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1.5

FPI

Rams by 3

Sagarin

Rams by 2.5

Massey

Rams by 1.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

41.52 pts under the market

FPI

42.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

421.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
TOM	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	44 -107	+116	-131

All 25 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
TOM	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2 -108	44 -110	+110	-135
BetOnline.ag	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
betPARX	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetRivers	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetUS	+2 -105	44 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+2 -105	44 -110	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -114	43.5 -120	+113	-134
Courtside	—	66.5 -1963	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	43.5 -118	+110	-130
Fanatics	+2.5 -115	44 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -118	44.5 -105	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -115	44.5 -110	+110	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
LowVig.ag	+2 -104	43.5 -113	+113	-133
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+111	-135
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	44 -107	+116	-131
Polymarket	+1.5 +104	44.5 +104	+117	-122
ReBet	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+113	-133
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	43.5 -120	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -2.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-1.5%) · BetMGM -2 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -133 at TOM

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.7%) · TOM or Caesars -133 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -135 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 44 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.6%) · TOM 43.5 at -105 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, only $377 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+113
FPI	+3.0	+144
Sagarin	+2.5	+122
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (22 books)	+2.0	+118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -2.0	-113	-103	-2.3%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-133	-121	-2.2%
Total	Under 43.5	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 28

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears

NFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pm

Eagles -3.5

should be Eagles -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Eagles by 3.5TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 3.5

FPI

Eagles by 4

Sagarin

Eagles by 0.5

Massey

Eagles by 1.5

Nasty Number

Eagles by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

44.22.2 pts over the market

FPI

41.9on the market

Nasty Number

43.11.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+151	-181
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	42.5 +103	+161	-180

All 25 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+151	-181
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
BetAnything	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+160	-185
BetMGM	—	42 -110	+155	-190
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+158	-181
betPARX	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
BetRivers	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
BetUS	+3.5 -115	42 -115	+155	-180
Bovada	+3.5 -120	42 -110	+160	-185
Caesars	+3.5 -115	42 -114	+154	-182
Courtside	+3.5 -110	45.5 -180	+168	-194
DraftKings	+3.5 -110	42.5 -105	+164	-198
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	42.5 -105	+148	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -115	41.5 -110	+160	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+155	-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+155	-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+155	-190
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -113	42 -113	+158	-181
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+154	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	42.5 +103	+161	-180
Polymarket	+3.5	41.5	+170	-178
ReBet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+156	-185
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	42.5 -105	+150	-175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · +164 at DraftKings

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings +164 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 37¢ (-2.1%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +155 (-2.7%) · TOM +151 (-3.3%) · FanDuel +148 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · Caesars 42 at -114 (-1.8%) · TOM 42 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears +3.5, only $113 available; Over 41.5, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 4 more.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+104
FPI	+4.0	+112
Sagarin	+0.5	-118
Massey	+1.5	-108
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears +3.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	+164	+174	-1.3%
Total	Over 42.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus; moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Oct 1

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns

NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm

Browns +3

should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Steelers by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Steelers by 3

FPI

Steelers by 1.5

Sagarin

Steelers by 2

Massey

Steelers by 1

Nasty Number

Steelers by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37.5

The Four

Massey

36.90.8 pts under the market

FPI

35.22.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

361.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	37.5	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—

All 14 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	37.5	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetUS	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -108	37.5 -113	+119	-139
Courtside	+3 -118	38.5 -108	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -120	38.5 -110	+124	-148
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	37.5 -105	+114	-134
Fliff	+2.5 -110	37.5 -110	+115	-145
LowVig.ag	+1.5 +100	37.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	37.5 -110	+114	-146
ReBet	+2.5 -105	37.5 -110	+119	-140

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +124 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Browns to win): DraftKings +124 (0.6%) · Caesars +119 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +114 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 37.5 · -110

Massey projects 37 and FPI projects 35. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 38.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars 37.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 37.5 at -115 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F, 46% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $23 available; Over 37.5, only $71 available; Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.0	+151
FPI	+1.5	+113
Sagarin	+2.0	+121
Massey	+1.0	+105
Market (13 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.5	36.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-120	-125	+0.9%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+124	+121	+0.6%
Total	Under 37.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 2

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech

CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm

Virginia Tech -6

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 6, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →

Market

Virginia Tech by 6

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.82.7 pts under the market

Massey

53.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.53 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	—	-208 66¢	+174 35¢

All 4 books

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	—	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Courtside	-6 -108	56.5 -108	-213	+184
DraftKings	-6 -110	56.5 -110	-218	+180
Fliff	—	56.5 -115	-225	+175

Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5, only $13 available; Over 54.5, only $3 available; Under 54.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Market (3 books)	-6.0	-201

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sat Oct 3

4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am

Notre Dame -21.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →

Market

Notre Dame by 21.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.83.7 pts under the market

Massey

47.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

473.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	+1074 8¢	—

All 4 books

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	+1074 8¢	—
Courtside	+21.5 -108	50.5 -108	+1177	-1882
DraftKings	+21.5 -110	50.5 -110	+1100	-2100
Fliff	+21.5 -115	50.5 -115	+1090	-2870

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Market (3 books)	+21.5	+1864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved up 1.0.

The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm

Tennessee -7.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7.5, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Tennessee by 7.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.70.8 pts under the market

Massey

57.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.6on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
Courtside	-7.5 -108	56.5 -108	-278	+236
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	56.5 -110	-285	+230
Fliff	-7.5 -115	56.5 -115	-295	+225

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Over 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, only $52 available; Auburn Tigers +7.5, only $52 available; Over 56.5, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Market (3 books)	-7.5	-262

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 1.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm

Ohio State -14.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →

Market

Ohio State by 14.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

SP+ pace

43.70.8 pts under the market

Massey

42.71.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.21.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

the Under 44.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Market (3 books)	+14.5	+622

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm

BYU -6.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →

Market

BYU by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen TCU's last game

FPI

hasn't seen TCU's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen TCU's last game

Massey

hasn't seen TCU's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.31.2 pts under the market

Massey

53.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.20.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
Courtside	+6.5 -108	52.5 -108	+189	-220
DraftKings	+6.5 -110	52.5 -110	+185	-225
Fliff	+6.5 -115	52.5 -115	+180	-235

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $0 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen TCU's last game
FPI	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Massey	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Market (3 books)	+6.5	+208

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sun Oct 4

13 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Colts -4.5

should be Colts -4.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Colts by 4.5

The Four

nfelo

Colts by 5.5

FPI

Colts by 4.5

Sagarin

Colts by 2.5

Massey

Colts by 4

Nasty Number

Colts by 4.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

52.56.4 pts over the market

FPI

46.90.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.73.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
Kalshi	—	—	+174 35¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
Kalshi	—	—	+174 35¢	—
Bally Bet	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetRivers	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetUS	+4.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+4.5 -106	46.5 -104	—	—
DraftKings	+4.5 -110	46.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -105	46.5 -104	+190	-230
LowVig.ag	+4 -110	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	46 -110	+173	-226
ReBet	+4.5 -110	46.5 -109	+177	-222

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · Caesars -4.5 at -114 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -115 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

Colts to win · -205 at DraftKings

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Colts to win): DraftKings -205 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -230 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -104 (0.2%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts ML, only $13 available; Washington Commanders +4.5, only $330 available; Indianapolis Colts -4.5, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onColts by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.5	+139
FPI	+4.5	+118
Sagarin	+2.5	+100
Massey	+4.0	+111
Market (11 books)	+4.5	+202

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts -4.5	-110	+101	-2.6%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	-205	-193	-1.3%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Giants -2.5

should be Giants -2.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 5

FPI

Giants by 0.5

Sagarin

Giants by 7

Massey

a pick'em

Nasty Number

Giants by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

The Four

Massey

44.20.7 pts over the market

FPI

41.61.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 10 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
Bally Bet	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
betPARX	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
BetUS	-2.5 -110	44 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-139	+118
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	43.5 -115	-136	+116
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-142	+111
Polymarket	—	—	-144	—
ReBet	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-139	+113

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -135 at DraftKings

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings or FanDuel -135 (-1.3%) · Caesars -139 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $6 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $288 available; New York Giants -2.5, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-205
FPI	-0.5	-101
Sagarin	-7.0	-298
Massey	PK	-100
Market (9 books)	-2.5	-127

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -2.5	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-135	-128	-1.3%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Ravens -10.5

should be Ravens -10.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 10.5

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 11

FPI

Ravens by 11

Sagarin

Ravens by 10.5

Massey

Ravens by 11

Nasty Number

Ravens by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

46.61.9 pts over the market

FPI

45.30.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

461.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-10 -104	45 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—
Bally Bet	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetOnline.ag	-10 -104	45 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetRivers	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetUS	-10.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
Caesars	-10.5 -110	44.5 -114	-625	+450
DraftKings	-10.5 -110	44.5 -110	-575	+425
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	44.5 -118	-700	+500
LowVig.ag	-10 +101	45 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	45 -110	-676	+430
Polymarket	—	—	-669	—
ReBet	-10.5 -110	44.5 -120	-649	+450

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -10.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -10.5 at -110 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -575 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -575 (-4.1%) · Kalshi 85¢ (-4.9%) · Caesars -625 (-5.2%) · FanDuel -700 (-6.5%).

Off the band

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 44.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -118 (-2.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $78 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $332 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 10.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.0	-440
FPI	-11.0	-435
Sagarin	-10.5	-421
Massey	-11.0	-437
Market (11 books)	-10.5	-578

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -10.5	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-575	-428	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Bills -5.5

should be Bills -5.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 5

FPI

Bills by 5.5

Sagarin

Bills by 3.5

Massey

Bills by 4

Nasty Number

Bills by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.32.5 pts under the market

FPI

50.91 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.10.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-263 71¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -105	50 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-263 71¢	—
Bally Bet	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
betPARX	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetRivers	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetUS	-5.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-5.5 -110	49.5 -115	-260	+210
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -115	50.5 -104	-260	+215
LowVig.ag	-5.5 +100	50 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	50 -110	-250	+189
Polymarket	—	—	-300	—
ReBet	-5.5 -110	49.5 -120	-244	+194

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +5.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): FanDuel +5.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +210 at Caesars

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Patriots to win): FanDuel +215 (-0.2%) · Caesars +210 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +205 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · Caesars 49.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $255 available; Buffalo Bills -5.5, only $398 available; New England Patriots +5.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-206
FPI	-5.5	-224
Sagarin	-3.5	-171
Massey	-4.0	-184
Market (11 books)	-5.5	-234

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +5.5	-105	-101	-1.0%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+210	+217	-0.7%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Bears -3

should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 3

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 3.5

FPI

Bears by 1

Sagarin

Bears by 6.5

Massey

Bears by 4.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 3.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

The Four

Massey

43.1on the market

FPI

40.13.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.61.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetUS	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -109	43.5 -106	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -115	43.5 -110	-166	+140
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	43.5 -105	-190	+160
LowVig.ag	-3 -105	43 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	43.5 -110	-186	+144
Polymarket	—	—	-203	—
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -110	-182	+147

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bears): Caesars -3 at -109 (0.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -110 (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -166 at DraftKings

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings -166 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -190 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 43.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $288 available; New York Jets ML, only $335 available; New York Jets ML, only $203 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-234
FPI	-1.0	-167
Sagarin	-6.5	-360
Massey	-4.5	-298
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-166

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -3.0	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-166	-162	-0.6%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Jaguars +3

should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 3.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

Bengals by 2.5

Massey

Bengals by 1

Nasty Number

Bengals by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.62.6 pts under the market

FPI

47.42.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -125	50.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
Bally Bet	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -125	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetRivers	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetUS	-2.5 -125	49.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	50.5 -106	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -110	49.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	50.5 -118	-144	+122
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -121	50.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	50.5 -110	-157	+123
Polymarket	—	—	-163	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	50.5 -110	-154	+125

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +136 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings +136 (2.3%) · FanDuel +122 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -104 (1.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $286 available; Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, only $463 available; Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-166
FPI	-1.0	-106
Sagarin	-2.5	-123
Massey	-1.0	-106
Market (11 books)	-2.5	-140

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-110	-122	+2.5%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+136	+124	+2.3%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Cowboys +3

should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 3

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Texans by 1

Massey

Texans by 3

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

Massey

49.62 pts over the market

FPI

47.30.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	47.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
Bally Bet	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	47.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetRivers	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetUS	-3 -105	48 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -106	47.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -110	47.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	47.5 -105	-146	+124
LowVig.ag	-3 +100	47.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	47.5 -110	-159	+124
Polymarket	—	—	-170	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	47.5 -110	-156	+127

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.1%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · +136 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): DraftKings +136 (1.9%) · FanDuel +124 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 50 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $195 available; Over 47.5, only $332 available; Under 47.5, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.0	-119
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	-3.0	-149
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys +3.0	-110	-120	+2.1%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	+136	+126	+1.9%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Eagles +3

should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →

Market

Rams by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1

FPI

Rams by 1

Sagarin

Rams by 1.5

Massey

Rams by 0.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 20.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

44.12 pts under the market

FPI

45.30.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.71.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetUS	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -106	46.5 -102	+122	-145
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+3 -118	46.5 -104	+128	-152
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+116	-148
Polymarket	—	—	—	-156
ReBet	+2.5 -105	45.5 -120	+118	-145

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel +3 at -118 (1.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -115 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +128 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +128 (1.3%) · Caesars +122 (0.1%) · DraftKings +114 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -118 (-2.1%) · Caesars 46.5 at -120 (-2.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $248 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $475 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+107
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+113
Massey	+0.5	+101
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +3.0	-118	-124	+1.3%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+128	+121	+1.3%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm

Vikings -10.5

should be Vikings -10.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 10.5

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 12

FPI

Vikings by 11.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 11.5

Massey

Vikings by 9

Nasty Number

Vikings by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

40.81.9 pts under the market

FPI

40.32.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.52.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	—	—	-564 84¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-10 -120	42.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	—	—	-564 84¢	—
Bally Bet	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetOnline.ag	-10 -120	42.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetRivers	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetUS	-10.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	42.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	-10.5 -110	42.5 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-10.5 -102	43.5 -105	-560	+420
LowVig.ag	-10 -116	42.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	42.5 -110	-676	+430
ReBet	-10.5 -110	42.5 -120	-649	+450

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.5 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -560 at FanDuel

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel or Kalshi -560 (-3.6%) · DraftKings -700 (-6.3%).

Off the band

the Under 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $101 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $324 available; Miami Dolphins +10.5, only $142 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 10.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-12.0	-456
FPI	-11.5	-444
Sagarin	-11.5	-441
Massey	-9.0	-361
Market (11 books)	-10.5	-564

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	40.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -10.5	-102	-101	-0.3%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-560	-432	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

49ers to win

our data says 64 in 100 · -146

A Little Nasty · 49ers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 3

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 4.51.4 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 9.56.5 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 4.51.3 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 6.53.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 3.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.24.7 pts under the market

FPI

471.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.11.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
Bally Bet	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetRivers	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetUS	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -112	45.5 -117	-159	+135
DraftKings	-3 -120	45.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3 -102	46.5 -110	-146	+124
LowVig.ag	-3 +100	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	46 -110	-175	+136
Polymarket	—	—	-170	—
ReBet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -120	-160	+130

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -3.0 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel -3 at -102 (4.5%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (2.1%) · DraftKings -3 at -120 (0.4%).

Same call

49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 59. That's value. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel -146 (4.5%) · Caesars -159 (2.4%) · DraftKings -175 (0.2%).

A Little Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: San Francisco 49ers ML, only $198 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $1 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-192
FPI	-9.5	-380
Sagarin	-4.5	-191
Massey	-6.5	-270
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -3.0	-102	-122	+4.5%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-146	-176	+4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

Chiefs -5.5

should be Chiefs -5.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Chiefs by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 4.5

FPI

Chiefs by 5.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 4.5

Massey

Chiefs by 3

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

Massey

41.54 pts under the market

FPI

42.72.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.13.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
Bally Bet	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetRivers	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetUS	+5.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	+5.5 -110	45.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	+6 -110	45.5 -110	+210	-258
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	45.5 -118	+198	-240
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -105	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+191	-250
ReBet	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+195	-246

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +6 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -115 (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +210 at DraftKings

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +210 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +198 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -104 (1.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (0.6%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $210 available; Kansas City Chiefs ML, only $17 available; Over 45.5, only $392 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.5	+193
FPI	+5.5	+218
Sagarin	+4.5	+197
Massey	+3.0	+144
Market (11 books)	+5.5	+227

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.0	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+210	+215	-0.5%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

Seahawks -6.5

should be Seahawks -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 7.5

FPI

Seahawks by 8.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 5.5

Massey

Seahawks by 11.5

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 70.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

394.2 pts under the market

FPI

41.12.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.13.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

Seahawks -6.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): DraftKings or Caesars -6.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -7 at -105 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -285 at DraftKings

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): DraftKings -285 (-0.2%) · Caesars -320 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -340 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, only $354 available; Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $330 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $221 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-320
FPI	-8.5	-355
Sagarin	-5.5	-225
Massey	-11.5	-447
Market (11 books)	-6.5	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	40.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -6.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-285	-283	-0.2%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm

Lions -2.5

should be Lions -2.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Lions by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 2

FPI

Lions by 1.5

Sagarin

Lions by 1.5

Massey

Lions by 3

Nasty Number

Lions by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

Massey

55.15.6 pts over the market

FPI

490.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.12.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetRivers	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetUS	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	+3 -120	49.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+118	-138
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +102	49.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+118	-151
Polymarket	—	—	—	-144
ReBet	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+121	-148

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.1%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +130 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Panthers to win): DraftKings +130 (0.9%) · FanDuel +118 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110

Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers ML, only $321 available; Carolina Panthers +2.5, only $324 available; Detroit Lions -2.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Ben Bartch (G, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 5 more.

Detroit Lions has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+114
FPI	+1.5	+112
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	+3.0	+134
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	52.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +3.0	-120	-120	+0.1%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+130	+125	+0.9%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 3-4, -1.3u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.4 pts vs the close on 7 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks3-4-1.27 units · -18% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.4 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 8 posted picks

Open3calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks3-443%-1.27 units7 games

Closing line value: +0.4 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 7. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty3-350%-0.23 units6 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty19-2642%-9.17 units45 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 17 of 28. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

5-8 · -3.98 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	3-4	42.9%	-1.3 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	3-3	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	19-26	42.2%	-9.2 u
Not Nasty	177 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 20:27.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 112 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.17	89
SP+	10.36	145
FPI	10.41	145
The market	10.47	203
Sagarin	11.81	193

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.11	91
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.02	89
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.01	91
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.06	112

The line archive, 203 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 101 times, against it 71, and sat still 31. Our side taken at the open finished 0.58 points better than the close on average over 191 games. The close misses the final by 10.38, the open by 10.68, our raw ratings number by 12.22, Pinnacle's close by 10.35. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.73, MyBookie.ag 10.16, Kalshi 10.18.

The Cut tracker. 4 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 0-1, -1.00 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	12.00	33
nfelo	12.34	33
Sagarin	12.45	33
FPI	13.79	18
Massey	13.93	16

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.03	16
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.07	16
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.09	16
nfelo	1.00	1.50	0.01	16

The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.

The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
ratings 0%	180	10.57	10.57	1-0
ratings 5%	180	10.48	10.57	1-0
ratings 15%	180	10.30	10.57	1-0
ratings 45%	180	9.79	10.57	1-0
Sagarin half a vote	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
Sagarin no vote	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
FPI a vote and a half	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
Massey a vote and a half	180	10.03	10.57	1-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 15 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.38Sides: pts vs close, 18 bets, beat it 61%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
UConn at Miami (OH)	UConn +5.5	5.5	3.5	+2.0	same side
UNLV at Akron	Akron +13.7	13.7	13.5	+0.2	no call
Utah at Iowa State	Iowa State +12.2	12.2	10	+2.2	no call
Vanderbilt at Auburn	Under	52.7	52.8	-0.1	no call
Virginia Tech at Boston College	Boston College +14	14	14	+0.0	no call
Wake Forest at Louisville	Wake Forest Demon +13.5	13.5	13	+0.5	no call
Wisconsin at Penn State	Penn State Nittany -10.6	-10.6	-9.6	-1.0	no call
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco -9	-9	-9	+0.0	no call
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys	Dallas +3	3	3	+0.0	no call
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts	Indianapolis +3	3	3	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders	Washington +6.5	6.5	7	-0.5	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears	Chicago +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 168 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.8 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	107	13.9	27-43 (39%)	16-24 (40%)
Massey	110	12.9	25-32 (44%)	7-19 (27%)
The blend	112	13.1	20-35 (36%)	9-18 (33%)

NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	19	9.9	7-6 (54%)	2-2 (50%)
FPI	17	9.9	5-1 (83%)	5-0 (100%)
The blend	19	8.9	6-1 (86%)	3-0 (100%)

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

20 priced · 1 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

14 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 20 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 34 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 9:30pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 6.3Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
→ 0.5Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Auburn Tigersagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.57Points off per game at that weight

10.57The market on its own

142Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 12%, give or take 22% (one standard error, 142 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	116	10.12
SP+	156	10.40
The market	250	10.74
FPI	174	10.78
Sagarin	240	12.08
nfelo	33	12.34

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	114-117	49%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 848118 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	131	1.76
DraftKings	310	1.50
FanDuel	328	1.47
LowVig.ag	279	1.47
BetOnline.ag	287	1.47
BetRivers	317	1.40
MyBookie.ag	219	1.38
Bally Bet	109	1.37
ReBet	103	1.36
betPARX	109	1.35
BetUS	219	1.25
BetMGM	283	1.24
Caesars	251	1.19
Courtside	72	1.17
Fanatics	253	1.17
Bovada	286	1.16
Hard Rock Bet	108	1.15
theScore Bet	106	1.15
TOM	275	1.11
Pinnacle	285	1.09
BetAnything	93	0.96
Fliff	107	0.75
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	31	0.61
Polymarket	23	0.57
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	31	0.55

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
nfelo updated 3 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Sep 26

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.