Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Virginia at West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptWest Virginia +10-105+6.2%Sat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:35pm at +10 -105. Now West Virginia +10 -105. 3 of 4 ratings are on this side. FPI makes it +9.0.better now, 1 pt+9 open Sunnow +10Nasty Number +8Sniff of Nasty
NFL: FPI and Massey and Sagarin and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin and nfelo haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
4 more, weaker reads
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Marshall at Missouri StateMissouri State +3.5-110 · 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4 · half a point awayA Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: UAB at Louisiana, Over 56.5. The total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
UAB at LouisianaMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 56.5should be 58.6 · getting 2.1 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›NC State at VanderbiltMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 51should be 52.4 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 11:45am Buck's case ›Kansas at Arizona StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 52should be 52.8 · getting 0.8 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Wyoming at Central MichiganMoved our way · 1.5 ptsUnder 40should be 38.6 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 12:00pm Buck's case ›Mississippi State at South CarolinaMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 59.5should be 58.3 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›Colorado at NorthwesternMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 49should be 48 · getting 1 ptSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Florida at AuburnUnder 53.5should be 51.4 · getting 2.1 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›North Texas at Texas StateOver 63.5should be 65.1 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Florida International at Florida AtlanticFlorida International +6.5should be Florida International +6 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›LSU at Ole MissUnder 59should be 57.7 · getting 1.3 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Broncos at ChiefsUnder 43should be 41.9 · getting 1.1 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›Miami (OH) at CincinnatiCincinnati -14.5should be Cincinnati -15 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›UConn at Southern MissSouthern Miss +3should be Southern Miss +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Temple at ToledoTemple +5.5should be Temple +5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 2:00pm Buck's case ›SMU at LouisvilleUnder 59.5should be 58.5 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Ohio at South AlabamaOhio +4.5should be Ohio +4.5 · was +4Sat 6:00pm Buck's case ›James Madison at San Diego StateOver 46.5should be 47.3 · getting 0.8 ptsSat 9:00pm Buck's case ›Stanford at DukeOver 51should be 51.7 · getting 0.7 ptsSat 3:00pm Buck's case ›North Carolina at ClemsonUnder 44.5should be 43.8 · getting 0.7 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Georgia Southern at Jacksonville StateOver 52.5should be 53 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Syracuse at PittsburghUnder 51.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 ptsThu 6:30pm Buck's case ›Fresno State at San José StateUnder 50.5should be 49.7 · getting 0.8 ptsSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Coastal Carolina at DelawareOver 57.5should be 57.9 · getting 0.4 ptsSat 10:30am Buck's case ›
Buck's Take
1 Nasty Pick on the counter Monday. On the counter. Don't make it a parlay.
Marshall at Missouri State, Missouri State +3.5. Every system has Missouri State by 0.5; the market has Marshall by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Eagles at Titans Titans +7 the strongest at 5.7% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.
If you're playing one, it's Marshall at Missouri State, Missouri State +3.5. The ratings make it Missouri State by 0.5. Bet it like you'd lose it, because you might.
Buck
Today
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL 7:15pmUnder 43should be 41.9 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 1, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 2.5 to Chiefs by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -120 | 43 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -126 54¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -102 | 43 +100 | -124 | +112 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -120 | 43 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -126 54¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -105 | 43 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -113 | 43 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 42.5 -114 | -130 | +107 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -115 | 42.5 -112 | -133 | +113 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 43.5 -102 | -136 | +116 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -108 | 43 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -128 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -102 | 43 +100 | -124 | +112 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Broncos).
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.
BetUS still has Chiefs -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 2.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -147 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -1.0 | -120 | -115 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -130 | -121 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Denver Broncos since 09-07 15:54.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 17
2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Over, Lions at BillsDetroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pmOver 53.5should be 54.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -218 67¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -104 | 54 +102 | -206 | +179 |
All 14 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -218 67¢ | +189 33¢ |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -108 | 53 -113 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -106 | 53.5 -112 | -218 | +180 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -103 | 53.5 -107 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -222 | +170 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -104 | 54 +102 | -206 | +179 |
Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 2 more.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -189 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| FPI | -5.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | +175 | +170 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Detroit Lions +4.5 | -112 | -113 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-10 10:21; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -189 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at PittsburghCFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 51.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 10.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 -102 | 51 -111 | -434 | +323 |
All 13 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 51 -114 | -480 | +325 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -109 | 51.5 -106 | -420 | +325 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 51.5 -102 | -425 | +330 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 51.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -101 | 51.5 -108 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -469 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -11 -102 | 51 -111 | -434 | +323 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -402 here against -343 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.5 | -313 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -401 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -273 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (11 books) | -10.5 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +10.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +310 | +308 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 8.3.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -343 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Sep 18
3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Miami by 21, our data says Miami by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +21.5 -126 54¢ | 55.5 | +1074 8¢ | -1429 93¢ |
| Pinnacle | +21 -110 | 55.5 -104 | +889 | -1768 |
All 12 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +21.5 -126 54¢ | 55.5 | +1074 8¢ | -1429 93¢ |
| BetMGM | +21 -112 | 55.5 -108 | +1050 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21 -110 | 56 -108 | +892 | -1550 |
| BetRivers | +21 -107 | 55.5 -108 | +1150 | — |
| BetUS | +21 -110 | 56 -110 | +900 | -1550 |
| Bovada | +21 -110 | 55 -110 | +900 | -1900 |
| Caesars | +20.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | +950 | -2000 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -102 | 55.5 -110 | +920 | -1800 |
| LowVig.ag | +21 -106 | 56 -106 | +892 | -1550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +21 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +776 | -1683 |
| Pinnacle | +21 -110 | 55.5 -104 | +889 | -1768 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +21.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Miami).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1032 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +955 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +554 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (11 books) | +21.0 | +951 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +21.0 | -110 | +117 | -6.2% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +900 | +1012 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 3.0.
The line is +21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas TechCFB Fri 18 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 7, our data says Texas Tech by 7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 7, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 8.5 to Texas Tech by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -117 | 53 -117 | -310 | +244 |
All 12 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 53 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -113 | 53 -113 | -335 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -105 | 53 -110 | -285 | +238 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -108 | 53.5 -106 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -305 | +245 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -101 | 53 -108 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -340 | +248 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -117 | 53 -117 | -310 | +244 |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 6.3 toward Houston). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -285 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -266 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -277 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -302 | -227 | -5.7% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 6.3 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 1.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Portland State Vikings at Oregon DucksPortland State at OregonCFB Fri 18 Sep, 9:30pmNo betmarket says Oregon by 56.5, our data says Oregon by 55Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 56.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Oregon by 58.5 to Oregon by 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -58.5, now -56.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Portland State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Portland State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Portland State | |
| Sagarin | -51.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Portland State and Oregon on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -56.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Portland State Vikings +56.5 | -110 | -176 | +11.3% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Portland State Vikings since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -56.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Sep 19
70 gamesBest: West Virginia +10.0, Nasty PickVirginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West VirginiaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmWest Virginia +10should be West Virginia +8 · getting 2 pts · -105 at TOM · was +8.5Nasty PickBet itMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take West Virginia +10.0 at -105 at TOM. Market says Virginia by 10, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 8.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +285 | -375 |
| Kalshi | +8.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -110 | 53.5 -107 | +301 | -399 |
All 13 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +285 | -375 |
| Kalshi | +8.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +299 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +10 -112 | 54 -109 | +320 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10 -105 | 53 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +10 -109 | 53.5 -108 | +300 | -390 |
| DraftKings | +10 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +310 | -395 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -101 | 53.5 -106 | +299 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +300 | -429 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -110 | 53.5 -107 | +301 | -399 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers +8.5, only $46 available; Under 53.5, only $236 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +223 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +271 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +129 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (11 books) | +10.0 | +298 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers +10.0 | -105 | -135 | +6.2% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | +285 | +235 | +3.9% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -112 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.
TOM matches the consensus.
Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsMarshall at Missouri StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:30pmMissouri State +3.5should be Missouri State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Missouri State +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Missouri State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -113 | 52 -109 | +143 | -170 |
All 11 books
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +4 -112 | 51.5 -109 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -166 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +138 | -166 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -106 | 52 -108 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +145 | -187 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -113 | 52 -109 | +143 | -170 |
Marked: best for Missouri State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 92°F.
A play at +4.0 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +130 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -156 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.5 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +3.5 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +135 | +132 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida AtlanticCFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pmFlorida International +6.5should be Florida International +6 · getting 0.5 pts · was +8.5A Little Nasty · Florida InternationalBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Florida International. Market says Florida Atlantic by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 6. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Florida International is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 62.5 to 63. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 63 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -131 55¢ | 62.5 -103 49¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 62.5 -109 | -274 | +220 |
All 12 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 63 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -131 55¢ | 62.5 -103 49¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 62.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 63 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| BetRivers | -7 -114 | 62.5 -110 | -265 | +200 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 63 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -270 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -7 -102 | 62.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 62.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -113 | 63 -108 | -260 | +215 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 63 -110 | -265 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 62.5 -109 | -274 | +220 |
Marked: best for Florida International, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida International +6.5 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.6 toward Florida International, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers +6.5, only $117 available; Under 62.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.
TOM: total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -183 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (10 books) | -6.5 | -249 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida International Panthers ML | +210 | +189 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Florida International Panthers +6.5 | -103 | -109 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 63.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at CincinnatiCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmCincinnati -14.5should be Cincinnati -15 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Cincinnati by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Cincinnati by 15. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -114 | -700 | +467 |
All 13 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -675 | +491 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -113 | 50.5 -112 | -835 | +525 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 51 -105 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | -675 | +490 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -675 | +491 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -800 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -114 | -700 | +467 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati -14.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F.
Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5, only $2 available; Under 50.5, only $305 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -21.5 | -1274 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -657 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -142 |
| Market (11 books) | -14.5 | -508 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | -687 | -531 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at ToledoCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:00pmTemple +5.5should be Temple +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3.5A Little Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Toledo by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -6 -105 | 51 -112 | -227 | +186 |
All 12 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -102 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -114 | 51.5 -114 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 51 -115 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -200 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -108 | 51 -108 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -236 | +180 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -105 | 51 -112 | -227 | +186 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +5.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 2.3 away from Temple, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +5.5, only $25 available; Under 51.5, only $0 available; Temple Owls ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -145 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -140 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (10 books) | -5.5 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +5.5 | -108 | -110 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +170 | +171 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.
UConn Huskies at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesUConn at Southern MissCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmSouthern Miss +3should be Southern Miss +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · Southern MissBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Southern Miss. Market says UConn by 3, the Nasty Number says UConn by 2.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Southern Miss is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -104 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 54 -119 | +132 | -156 |
All 12 books
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -104 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -104 | 54.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -115 | 54.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 54.5 -112 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +138 | -166 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +100 | 54.5 -108 | +140 | -160 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +129 | -166 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 54 -119 | +132 | -156 |
Marked: best for Southern Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Southern Miss +3.0 · -104 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 44% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.5, only $130 available; Under 54.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +207 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -185 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +146 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -123 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +135 | +131 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.0 | -104 | -106 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pmUnder 50.5should be 49.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 7.5 to Fresno State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +200 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -109 | +210 | -260 |
All 11 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +200 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -108 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +207 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 50.5 -110 | +220 | -286 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -108 | +205 | -250 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -101 | 50.5 -103 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +218 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -109 | +210 | -260 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +279 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +233 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (10 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | +200 | +198 | +0.3% |
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans +6.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksGeorgia Southern at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmOver 52.5should be 53 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 52.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -164 | +138 |
All 11 books
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 52.5 -115 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 52.5 -112 | -162 | +134 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -177 | +138 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -164 | +138 |
Marked: best for the Jacksonville State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +135 | +134 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +3.0 | -105 | -104 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at DelawareCFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:30amOver 57.5should be 57.9 · getting 0.4 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 57.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Delaware by 5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | -207 | +172 |
All 12 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -210 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 57.5 -113 | -210 | +165 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 58 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 | -210 | +172 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -222 | +170 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -108 | 57.5 -109 | -207 | +172 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -136 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -238 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -157 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -123 |
| Market (10 books) | -5.0 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 59.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +170 | +165 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +5.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -112 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-13 06:03.
TOM matches the consensus.
Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsOhio at South AlabamaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmOhio +4.5should be Ohio +4.5 · was +4A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says South Alabama by 4.5, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 4.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 51 -112 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -115 | 52 -104 | -201 | +167 |
All 12 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 51 -112 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -190 | +160 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51 -112 | -190 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 | -200 | +155 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -112 | -192 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | -192 | +158 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -106 | 51 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -210 | +161 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -115 | 52 -104 | -201 | +167 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio +4.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 61% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -156 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -149 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -151 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (10 books) | -4.5 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | +160 | +159 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats +4.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -108 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 52should be 52.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Arizona State by 6, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 6. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 5.5 to Arizona State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -104 | 52 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 51.5 -109 | -208 | +172 |
All 12 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -104 | 52 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -104 | 52 -105 | -225 | +189 |
| BetRivers | -6 -112 | 51.5 -114 | -225 | +170 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 52 -105 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -205 | +168 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 +100 | 52 -103 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -230 | +175 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 51.5 -109 | -208 | +172 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -187 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -176 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -192 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (11 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +6.0 | -116 | -105 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +175 | +188 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.9.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.6 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.6 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -187 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at ClemsonCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 44.5should be 43.8 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 44.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Clemson by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Clemson by 4.5 to Clemson by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 42.5 -136 56¢ | -175 62¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 44.5 -101 | -177 | +149 |
All 13 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 42.5 -136 56¢ | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -168 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -113 | -175 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -108 | 44.5 -109 | -170 | +144 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 44.5 -108 | -168 | +148 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -170 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 44.5 -101 | -177 | +149 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward North Carolina). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers -3.5, only $143 available; Under 42.5, only $0 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -151 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -228 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5 | -115 | -111 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +138 | +143 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 63.5should be 65.1 · getting 1.6 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 63.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas State by 3, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 63.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 63.5 -109 | -150 | +127 |
All 11 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 63.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 63.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -108 | 63.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 63.5 -110 | -152 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 64 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 63.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 63.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 63.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 63.5 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 63.5 -110 | -155 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 63.5 -109 | -150 | +127 |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 63.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -149 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +208 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -111 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.5 | 71.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +3.0 | -112 | -105 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +125 | +132 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 63.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at VanderbiltCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:45amOver 51should be 52.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vanderbilt by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 4.5 to Vanderbilt by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | NC State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -102 | 51 -107 | -162 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -117 | 51 -106 | -165 | +140 |
All 12 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | NC State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -102 | 51 -107 | -162 | +132 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -102 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -102 | 51 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 51 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 51 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 51 -105 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -106 | -170 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 51.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +102 | 51 -105 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -180 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -117 | 51 -106 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward NC State).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -158 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.5 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -3.5 | -102 | +109 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | -162 | -146 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -107 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central MichiganCFB Sat 19 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 40should be 38.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 42.5A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 40.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Central Michigan by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 40.5 +105 47¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 39.5 -112 | -120 | +102 |
All 12 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 40.5 +105 47¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| BetMGM | -1 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| BetRivers | -2 -109 | 39.5 -110 | -129 | +104 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 39.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 39.5 -112 | -118 | -102 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -101 | 40 -108 | -118 | -102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -123 | -103 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 39.5 -112 | -120 | +102 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 72°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +1.5, only $433 available; Under 40.5, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +111 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -123 |
| Market (10 books) | -1.5 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 35.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys +1.5 | -115 | +105 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | -102 | +116 | -4.3% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at LouisvilleCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 59.5should be 58.5 · getting 1 pt · was 57.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -107 50¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -104 | 59.5 -109 | -121 | +103 |
All 13 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -107 50¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 60 -112 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 59.5 -113 | -120 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 59.5 -112 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -126 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -101 | 59.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -126 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -104 | 59.5 -109 | -121 | +103 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 93°F.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs +1.5, only $408 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -118 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.5 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs +1.5 | -115 | +105 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | +100 | +116 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at DukeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmOver 51should be 51.7 · getting 0.7 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 10. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -108 | 51 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | — | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -372 | +284 |
All 13 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -108 | 51 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | — | +280 25¢ |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -108 | 51 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | -385 | +280 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 51.5 -102 | -375 | +295 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 51.5 -104 | -400 | +310 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -104 | 51 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -400 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -372 | +284 |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 93°F.
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +9.5, only $346 available; Under 51.5, only $25 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $464 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -420 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -456 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -261 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils -9.5 | -108 | +102 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | -350 | -289 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South CarolinaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 59.5should be 58.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Carolina by 4, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3.5 to South Carolina by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -105 | 59.5 -112 | -180 | +151 |
All 13 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +157 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 59 -109 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 59.5 -115 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -4 -108 | 59.5 -112 | -179 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -4 -105 | 59.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | -184 | +152 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 59.5 -108 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 60 -110 | -200 | +154 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -105 | 59.5 -112 | -180 | +151 |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -267 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -165 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (11 books) | -4.0 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks -4.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | -180 | -156 | -3.3% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 5.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at AuburnCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 53.5should be 51.4 · getting 2.1 pts · was 52A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 9.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -103 | 53.5 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 52.5 -119 | +115 | -134 |
All 13 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -103 | 53.5 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -103 | 53.5 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 53 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 53.5 -106 | +119 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +118 | -142 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +101 | 53.5 -108 | +118 | -138 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +113 | -144 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 52.5 -119 | +115 | -134 |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 28% chance of rain.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +179 |
| FPI | PK | -102 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +110 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +2.5 | -103 | +103 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +118 | +124 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at NorthwesternCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 49should be 48 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 49.0. SP+ say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Northwestern by 4, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 3.5 to Northwestern by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 49 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -111 | 48 -118 | -180 | +151 |
All 13 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 49 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -105 | 49 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 48 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | -176 | +149 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 49 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 49 -110 | -202 | +155 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -111 | 48 -118 | -180 | +151 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 49% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -196 |
| FPI | PK | -102 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -302 |
| Massey | rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -4.0 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -4.0 | -105 | +104 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | -170 | -161 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole MissCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 59should be 57.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says LSU by 3, the Nasty Number says LSU by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 2.5 to LSU by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 59 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +125 | -146 |
All 12 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 59 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 59.5 -102 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 59 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -107 | 58.5 -113 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 59 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -110 | 58.5 -118 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 59.5 -102 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 58.5 -115 | +120 | -144 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | — | +123 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +125 | -146 |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +204 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +169 |
| Sagarin | PK | +101 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +125 | +136 | -2.0% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at LouisianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmOver 56.5should be 58.6 · getting 2.1 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 8.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Louisiana by 8.5 to Louisiana by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 56.5 -107 | -320 | +251 |
All 12 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 56.5 -113 | -345 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | -330 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -319 | +234 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 56.5 -107 | -320 | +251 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UAB).
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +7.5, only $280 available; Under 56.5, only $459 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $387 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -415 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -324 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (10 books) | -7.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 63.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.5 | -112 | +105 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -300 | -250 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pmOver 46.5should be 47.3 · getting 0.8 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says San Diego State by 2, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -133 | +114 |
All 11 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -113 | -143 | +115 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -142 | +118 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -111 | 46.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -139 | +109 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -133 | +114 |
Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward San Diego State).
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +127 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -125 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (10 books) | -2.0 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes +2.0 | -105 | +106 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | +115 | +122 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pmNo betmarket says Oregon State by 15.5, our data says Oregon State by 12.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 6 points more in Montana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -15.5. The market has moved 6.0 away from Montana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana | |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -169 |
| Massey | rates Montana and Oregon State on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -15.5 | -569 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana Grizzlies +15.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Montana Grizzlies ML | +540 | +388 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-14 08:04.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at MinnesotaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Minnesota by 24.5, our data says Minnesota by 23.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 26.5 to Minnesota by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -24 -113 | 49 -118 | — | +1345 |
All 12 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetMGM | -24.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -3000 | +1700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | +1450 |
| BetRivers | -25.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -24.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | +1500 |
| Bovada | -24 -115 | 49 -120 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -102 | 49.5 -105 | -3200 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24.5 -104 | 49 -108 | — | +1450 |
| MyBookie.ag | -24.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -3030 | +980 |
| Pinnacle | -24 -113 | 49 -118 | — | +1345 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F, 35% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -27.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward Akron).
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $97 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2298 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -661 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2374 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -143 |
| Market (10 books) | -24.5 | -1419 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +24.5 | -112 | +124 | -8.3% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +1450 | +1694 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Akron Zips since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.2 consensus.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at ArkansasCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 54should be 55.9 · getting 1.9 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 25.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 26 to Georgia by 25.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25.5 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 +100 | 54 -114 | +1212 | -2914 |
All 13 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25.5 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| BetMGM | +25.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | +1700 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +25.5 -105 | 54 -110 | +1356 | — |
| BetRivers | +26 -113 | 54.5 -109 | +1400 | — |
| BetUS | +25.5 -105 | 54 -110 | +1500 | — |
| Bovada | +24.5 +100 | 54 -115 | +1100 | — |
| Caesars | +25.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | +1300 | — |
| DraftKings | +25.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | +1700 | — |
| FanDuel | +25.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +25.5 -101 | 54 -108 | +1356 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +24.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +1119 | — |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 +100 | 54 -114 | +1212 | -2914 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +25.0 (the market moved 7.4 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +25.5 here against +24.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.5 | +2334 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2518 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +679 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -112 |
| Market (11 books) | +25.5 | +1346 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 60.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +25.5 | -105 | +125 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +1378 | +1893 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 7.4 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread +25.5 here against +24.9 consensus.
The line is +25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 44.5should be 43.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 47.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Iowa State by 22.5 to Iowa State by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -24 -103 | 46 -103 | -2275 | +1043 |
All 12 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -2500 | +1156 |
| BetRivers | -24 -108 | 45.5 -113 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -2500 | +1175 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -2500 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -117 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -115 | 44.5 -118 | — | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -118 | 44.5 -112 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -23.5 -106 | 44.5 -110 | -2500 | +1156 |
| MyBookie.ag | -23.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -3030 | +1025 |
| Pinnacle | -24 -103 | 46 -103 | -2275 | +1043 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 74°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -23.5 here against -23.8 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -23.0 | -1627 |
| FPI | -22.0 | -1408 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1493 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (11 books) | -23.5 | -1172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 38.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +23.5 | -110 | +140 | -10.6% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +1156 | +1644 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread -23.5 here against -23.8 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsBuffalo at Penn StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 48should be 47 · getting 1 pt · was 47.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 40.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 39.5 to Penn State by 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -105 | 47.5 -119 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -39.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -39.5 -112 | 47.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -40 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -39.5 -105 | 47.5 -120 | — | — |
| Caesars | -40.5 -108 | 48.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -39.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -115 | 48.5 -104 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40 -106 | 48 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -105 | 47.5 -119 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -33.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -162 |
| Market (10 books) | -40.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +40.0 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.
The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Mercer Bears at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsMercer at Georgia TechCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Georgia Tech by 39.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia Tech by 39.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Georgia Tech by 41.5 to Georgia Tech by 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Mercer ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Mercer).
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $161 available; Under 59.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercer | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercer | |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1583 |
| Massey | rates Mercer and Georgia Tech on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -39.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercer Bears +39.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mercer Bears since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 49should be 49.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 50.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kansas State by 19 to Kansas State by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -111 | -1379 | +755 |
All 12 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -110 | 49 -110 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 49 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -1700 | +900 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +1000 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2000 | +980 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -106 | 49 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2019 | +859 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -111 | -1379 | +755 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Kansas State).
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.4 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.0 | -1387 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -465 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -637 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (11 books) | -20.0 | -852 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +20.0 | -110 | +117 | -6.4% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +859 | +897 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.4 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 60should be 57.9 · getting 2.1 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -115 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 -108 | 58.5 -114 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -115 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -52.5 -108 | 59.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52.5 -115 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -52.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -52.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -53 -110 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -52.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -52.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -52.5 -108 | 59.5 -118 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -52.5 -111 | 60 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 -108 | 58.5 -114 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F, 22% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 58.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -53.0 | — |
| FPI | -54.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -5.0 | -169 |
| Market (10 books) | -52.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kent State Golden Flashes +52.5 | -105 | -158 | +9.9% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus; total 60.0 here against 58.9 consensus.
The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at WisconsinCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:30amUnder 45.5should be 43.5 · getting 2 pts · was 47.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Wisconsin by 24.5 to Wisconsin by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -2478 | +1099 |
All 13 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| BetMGM | -24 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -3000 | +1550 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | +1336 |
| BetRivers | -24 -115 | 46 -113 | — | +1400 |
| BetUS | -24 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | +1400 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -2500 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -24 -109 | 45.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -120 | 45.5 -112 | -2800 | +1300 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -106 | 45.5 -108 | — | +1336 |
| MyBookie.ag | -24.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | +1050 |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -2478 | +1099 |
Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -23.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Eastern Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.7 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -991 |
| FPI | -22.5 | -1512 |
| Sagarin | -28.0 | -3388 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (11 books) | -24.0 | -1241 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eastern Michigan Eagles +24.0 | -110 | +130 | -8.9% |
| Moneyline | Eastern Michigan Eagles ML | +1336 | +1618 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.7 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maine Black Bears at Boston College EaglesMaine at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pmNo betmarket says Boston College by 37.5, our data says Boston College by 35Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boston College by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Boston College by 39.5 to Boston College by 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Maine ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Maine).
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Maine | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Maine | |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -4151 |
| Massey | rates Maine and Boston College on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maine Black Bears +37.5 | -110 | +130 | -9.0% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Maine Black Bears since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting IlliniSouthern Illinois at IllinoisCFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 39.5, our data says Illinois by 35Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Illinois by 39.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Illinois by 41.5 to Illinois by 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Southern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 89°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Southern Illinois).
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2216 |
| Massey | rates Southern Illinois and Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -39.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Illinois Salukis +39.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Southern Illinois Salukis since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at AlabamaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 19, our data says Alabama by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 20 to Alabama by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -109 | 49 -107 | -1332 | +738 |
All 12 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -110 | 49 -105 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -1600 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +920 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 49.5 -114 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1299 | +670 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -109 | 49 -107 | -1332 | +738 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 95°F.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Alabama).
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.6 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -762 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -473 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -142 |
| Market (11 books) | -19.0 | -818 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +19.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +836 | +762 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.6 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Duquesne Dukes at Washington State CougarsDuquesne at Washington StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Washington State by 35.5, our data says Washington State by 32.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington State by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Duquesne | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Duquesne | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2483 |
| Massey | rates Duquesne and Washington State on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duquesne Dukes +35.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.1% |
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&MCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Texas A&M by 17, our data says Texas A&M by 17Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas A&M by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas A&M by 16 to Texas A&M by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -788 88¢ | +625 13¢ |
| Pinnacle | -17 -105 | 49 -119 | -854 | +541 |
All 13 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -788 88¢ | +625 13¢ |
| BetMGM | -16.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -800 | +600 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17 -105 | 50 -110 | -850 | +586 |
| BetRivers | -16.5 -115 | 49 -113 | -910 | +550 |
| BetUS | -17 -110 | 50 -110 | -850 | +580 |
| Bovada | -17 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| Caesars | -17 -109 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -16.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | -850 | +575 |
| FanDuel | -16.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -950 | +590 |
| LowVig.ag | -17 -101 | 50 -108 | -850 | +586 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17 -110 | 50 -110 | -1000 | +560 |
| Pinnacle | -17 -105 | 49 -119 | -854 | +541 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M).
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -1061 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1198 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -426 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (11 books) | -17.0 | -588 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +17.0 | -115 | +120 | -8.1% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +580 | +685 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at MichiganCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 48should be 47.3 · getting 0.7 pts · was 48.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Michigan by 36.5 to Michigan by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -105 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35.5 -110 | 49 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -105 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -102 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -105 | 48.5 -104 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -106 | 48 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -105 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 78°F, 42% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -32.0 | — |
| FPI | -34.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -160 |
| Market (9 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +35.0 | -110 | +152 | -12.7% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at RutgersCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmOver 59.5should be 60.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 24.5 to USC by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 3 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -112 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | -2042 95¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -116 | 59.5 -108 | +1148 | -2660 |
All 13 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -112 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | -2042 95¢ |
| BetMGM | +24 -110 | 59.5 -108 | +1350 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -112 | 59.5 -110 | +1216 | -2800 |
| BetRivers | +24 -110 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | +24 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +1250 | -2800 |
| Bovada | +24.5 -120 | 59.5 -110 | +1100 | -2800 |
| Caesars | +24 -110 | 59.5 -109 | +1300 | — |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -102 | 59.5 -108 | +1300 | -2800 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -102 | 59.5 -110 | +1280 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +1216 | -2800 |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +840 | -2000 |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -116 | 59.5 -108 | +1148 | -2660 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward USC).
Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $304 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1703 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +681 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -106 |
| Market (11 books) | +24.0 | +1220 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 62.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.0 | -112 | +118 | -7.0% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +1233 | +1437 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward USC Trojans since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.2 consensus.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at UtahCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Utah by 27.5, our data says Utah by 26.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -114 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28 -102 | 57 -107 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -114 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28 -108 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -112 | 56.5 -112 | — | +1800 |
| BetUS | -28 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -105 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -28.5 -109 | 56.5 -114 | — | +1800 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -102 | 56.5 -115 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -120 | 56.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| MyBookie.ag | -28 -110 | 57 -110 | — | +1125 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -102 | 57 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Utah).
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -24.0 | -1866 |
| Sagarin | -24.5 | -1913 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -155 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.5 | -1820 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +27.5 | -106 | +141 | -9.9% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1895 | +2677 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Utah Utes since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.0 consensus.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at LibertyCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmNo betmarket says Liberty by 14.5, our data says Liberty by 14Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 14. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 50 -111 | -639 | +436 |
All 11 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -675 | +491 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -1000 | +550 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 50 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -650 | +470 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -780 | +530 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | -675 | +491 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -725 | +460 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 50 -111 | -639 | +436 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Liberty). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -323 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -365 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (10 books) | -14.5 | -487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +14.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +490 | +464 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Liberty Flames since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 7.6.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at BaylorCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmOver 53.5should be 54.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Baylor by 17.5 to Baylor by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -869 89¢ | +685 12¢ |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -106 | 53 -111 | -1138 | +662 |
All 12 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -869 89¢ | +685 12¢ |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1050 | +686 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -19.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1050 | +680 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -102 | 53.5 -112 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -106 | 52.5 -110 | -1300 | +760 |
| LowVig.ag | -19.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -1050 | +686 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1205 | +640 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -106 | 53 -111 | -1138 | +662 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 98°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Baylor).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5, only $250 available; Under 54.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -529 |
| FPI | -17.0 | -692 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -584 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (10 books) | -19.5 | -710 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +19.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +686 | +767 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Baylor Bears since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at IndianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmUnder 60should be 59.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 59.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -112 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44 -113 | 59.5 -116 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -112 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44.5 -108 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44 -112 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -112 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -44 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -112 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -45.5 -105 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44 -108 | 60 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44 -113 | 59.5 -116 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $40 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.0 | — |
| FPI | -41.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (9 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 57.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.0 | -108 | -179 | +12.2% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa HawkeyesNorthern Iowa at IowaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmNo betmarket says Iowa by 40.5, our data says Iowa by 38Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa by 40.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Iowa by 41.5 to Iowa by 40.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Northern Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Northern Iowa).
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Northern Iowa | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Northern Iowa | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Northern Iowa and Iowa on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Iowa Panthers +40.5 | -110 | -199 | +14.2% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Northern Iowa Panthers since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pmOver 51.5should be 52.4 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says App State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | -1263 | +712 |
All 11 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -113 | 51.5 -110 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -1300 | +725 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -1050 | +675 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | -1200 | +720 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -101 | 51.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1299 | +670 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | -1263 | +712 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 77°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Charlotte).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -1032 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -523 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -623 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -147 |
| Market (10 books) | -17.5 | -750 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +17.5 | -115 | +113 | -6.4% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +710 | +698 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsEast Carolina at Old DominionCFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pmNo betmarket says Old Dominion by 3, our data says Old Dominion by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 3, the Nasty Number says Old Dominion by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 2.5 to Old Dominion by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -101 | 49 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 49.5 -109 | -143 | +122 |
All 12 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -101 | 49 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -101 | 49 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 49.5 -112 | -143 | +115 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -115 | -146 | +122 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +104 | 49 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -153 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 49.5 -109 | -143 | +122 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $229 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -123 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates +3.0 | -119 | -104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | +125 | +133 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus; moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware State Hornets at South Florida BullsDelaware State at South FloridaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says South Florida by 37.5, our data says South Florida by 35Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Delaware State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Delaware State | |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4318 |
| Massey | rates Delaware State and South Florida on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware State Hornets +37.5 | -110 | +131 | -9.1% |
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCFCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says UCF by 18.5, our data says UCF by 18.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UCF by 20.5 to UCF by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18 -114 | 51.5 -105 | -1292 | +722 |
All 11 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -1250 | +776 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -109 | 51.5 -114 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -1250 | +800 |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -1300 | +725 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -106 | 51.5 -114 | -1250 | +776 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1205 | +640 |
| Pinnacle | -18 -114 | 51.5 -105 | -1292 | +722 |
Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Georgia State).
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4276 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -605 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -1089 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (10 books) | -18.5 | -774 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +18.5 | -110 | +120 | -7.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +763 | +831 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.2 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersNevada at Middle TennesseeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Nevada by 4, our data says Nevada by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 4, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -116 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -111 | 51 -104 | +154 | -183 |
All 13 books
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -116 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -182 63¢ |
| BetMGM | +4 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -116 | 50.5 -108 | +149 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +145 | -182 |
| BetUS | +4 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +4 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | +147 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +4 -115 | 50.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | +140 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -112 | 50.5 -106 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +154 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -111 | 51 -104 | +154 | -183 |
Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee).
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $205 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $437 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +162 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.5 | +351 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +238 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -120 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack -4.0 | -104 | +103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | -170 | -162 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.9 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +162 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersTroy at MissouriCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Missouri by 27, our data says Missouri by 26Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -105 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -27 -108 | 49.5 -108 | — | +1520 |
All 12 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -105 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| BetMGM | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | — | +1850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -105 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | — | +1800 |
| BetUS | -27 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -26.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -101 | 50 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -27 -110 | 50 -110 | — | +1150 |
| Pinnacle | -27 -108 | 49.5 -108 | — | +1520 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -27.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Troy).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $306 available; Under 49.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1945 |
| FPI | -23.5 | -1665 |
| Sagarin | -26.5 | -2778 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -146 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -1604 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +27.0 | -115 | +141 | -12.0% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +1694 | +2507 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Troy Trojans since 09-13 13:40.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State CowboysMurray State at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Oklahoma State by 55.5, our data says Oklahoma State by 50.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma State by 55.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Oklahoma State by 57.5 to Oklahoma State by 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 89°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -57.5, now -55.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Murray State).
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Murray State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Murray State | |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Murray State and Oklahoma State on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -55.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 69.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Murray State Racers +55.5 | -110 | -245 | +18.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Murray State Racers since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -55.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at RiceCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo betmarket says Western Michigan by 9.5, our data says Western Michigan by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Western Michigan by 10.5 to Western Michigan by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 43.5 -116 52¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 44 -104 | +313 | -418 |
All 12 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 43.5 -116 52¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +289 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +10 -114 | 43.5 -113 | +320 | -435 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +290 | -360 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +315 | -420 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | +295 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -106 | 43.5 -110 | +315 | -410 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | +289 | -360 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +310 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 44 -104 | +313 | -418 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Rice). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $212 available; Under 43.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +327 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.5 | +320 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +431 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +209 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -118 |
| Market (10 books) | +9.5 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +9.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +270 | +274 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Rice Owls since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +327 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Eastern Washington Eagles at Washington HuskiesEastern Washington at WashingtonCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pmNo betmarket says Washington by 42.5, our data says Washington by 39.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 42.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Washington by 44.5 to Washington by 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Eastern Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -44.5, now -42.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Eastern Washington).
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Eastern Washington | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Eastern Washington | |
| Sagarin | -33.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Eastern Washington and Washington on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eastern Washington Eagles +42.5 | -110 | -206 | +14.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Eastern Washington Eagles since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska CornhuskersNorth Dakota at NebraskaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pmNo betmarket says Nebraska by 24.5, our data says Nebraska by 23Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | North Dakota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F, 44% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $90 available; Under 50.5, only $282 available; North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Dakota | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Dakota | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1057 |
| Massey | rates North Dakota and Nebraska on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -24.5 | -1463 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Dakota Fighting Hawks +24.5 | -110 | +121 | -7.1% |
| Moneyline | North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML | +1400 | +1627 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says BYU by 18, our data says BYU by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from BYU by 20 to BYU by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +17 -101 | 52 -110 | +639 | -1081 |
All 12 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +18 -112 | 52.5 -108 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +661 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -113 | 52.5 -110 | +575 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| Bovada | +17.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +650 | -1100 |
| Caesars | +18 -113 | 52.5 -112 | +675 | -1000 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | +650 | -1000 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -104 | 52.5 -110 | +740 | -1200 |
| LowVig.ag | +18 -111 | 52.5 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +18 -110 | 52 -110 | +590 | -1099 |
| Pinnacle | +17 -101 | 52 -110 | +639 | -1081 |
Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Colorado State).
TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.4 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1237 |
| FPI | +18.5 | +852 |
| Sagarin | +18.0 | +788 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -110 |
| Market (11 books) | +18.0 | +681 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -18.0 | -105 | -122 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -1000 | -797 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.4 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
The line is +18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at MarylandCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 3, our data says Virginia Tech by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -117 | 54.5 -107 | +122 | -143 |
All 13 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +3 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -113 | 53.5 -113 | +126 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 53.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -124 | 53.5 -112 | +130 | -156 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -111 | 53.5 -108 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 54 -110 | +123 | -157 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -117 | 54.5 -107 | +122 | -143 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $5 available; Under 53.5, only $331 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +131 |
| Sagarin | PK | -101 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (11 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +3.0 | -115 | -108 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +120 | +128 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 4.1.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre DameCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 29, our data says Notre Dame by 28Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 29.5 to Notre Dame by 29. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30 -101 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -29.5 -108 | 52.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -29 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30 -109 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -29 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -105 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5 -112 | 52.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -29.5 -110 | 52.5 -102 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -29.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -29 -111 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -29 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | +1275 |
| Pinnacle | -30 -101 | 52 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F, 40% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.7 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.5 | -3245 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2750 |
| Sagarin | -24.0 | -1786 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -143 |
| Market (11 books) | -29.0 | -1995 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +29.0 | -105 | +134 | -8.5% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +2183 | +3336 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.7 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
The line is -29.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at OklahomaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -103 | 47.5 -106 | -2202 | +1022 |
All 12 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| BetMGM | -22.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -2500 | +1350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -2500 | +1156 |
| BetRivers | -22 -113 | 47.5 -114 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -22.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -2500 | +1175 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -2200 | +1000 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | -2100 | +1100 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | +1280 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -111 | 46.5 -108 | -2500 | +1156 |
| MyBookie.ag | -23 -110 | 47 -110 | -2500 | +930 |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -103 | 47.5 -106 | -2202 | +1022 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened -21.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners -21.5, only $472 available; New Mexico Lobos +21.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -23.0 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -726 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1495 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (10 books) | -21.5 | -1122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos +21.5 | -105 | +105 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | +1156 | +981 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -23.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at TennesseeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:45pmNo betmarket says Tennessee by 35.5, our data says Tennessee by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tennessee by 34.5 to Tennessee by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -109 | 60 -102 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35.5 -110 | 60 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -107 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -112 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -108 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -106 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -109 | 60 -102 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -33.0 | — |
| FPI | -30.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -161 |
| Market (10 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 59.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +35.5 | -110 | +137 | -10.2% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +5238 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCUCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says TCU by 20.5, our data says TCU by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -20 -106 | 56 -111 | -1325 | +735 |
All 11 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 55.5 -112 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1450 | +856 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -114 | 55.5 -114 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1450 | +875 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 56 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -108 | 55.5 -118 | -1350 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 56 -108 | -1450 | +856 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1299 | +660 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -106 | 56 -111 | -1325 | +735 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1122 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -728 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1061 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -141 |
| Market (10 books) | -20.5 | -807 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves +20.5 | -110 | +129 | -8.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves ML | +824 | +1053 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.2 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden HurricaneEast Texas A&M at TulsaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Tulsa by 40.5, our data says Tulsa by 36Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulsa by 40.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 42.5 to Tulsa by 40.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | East Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -42.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward East Texas A&M).
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $6 available; Under 56.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate East Texas A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate East Texas A&M | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2146 |
| Massey | rates East Texas A&M and Tulsa on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Texas A&M Lions +40.5 | -110 | -238 | +18.0% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward East Texas A&M Lions since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.0.
The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at TexasCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Texas by 30, our data says Texas by 29.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -109 | 58 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -30 -108 | 58.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -113 | 58 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -30 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | — | +2200 |
| LowVig.ag | -30 -106 | 58 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -30 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1250 |
| Pinnacle | -30 -109 | 58 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $275 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2162 |
| FPI | -36.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3703 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -146 |
| Market (10 books) | -30.0 | -1946 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +30.0 | -110 | +147 | -12.0% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +2200 | +4227 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pmNo betmarket says Boise State by 24.5, our data says Boise State by 21.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Boise State by 22.5 to Boise State by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -22.5, now -24.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Boise State).
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| FPI | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -458 |
| Massey | rates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -24.5 | -1463 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Dakota Coyotes +24.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | South Dakota Coyotes ML | +1400 | +1232 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 2.0.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at ArizonaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pmUnder 49.5should be 48.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -115 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -102 | 50 -103 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -115 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -115 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -115 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -105 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -109 | 49.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 49.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -111 | 49.5 -103 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -102 | 50 -103 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Arizona).
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4276 |
| FPI | -26.0 | -2535 |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -3250 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -150 |
| Market (10 books) | -34.0 | -4587 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +34.0 | -105 | +142 | -10.0% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +4692 | +7241 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Arizona Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 28, our data says North Dakota State by 26Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 28.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +27.5 -108 | 52 -106 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +27.5 -102 | 51.5 -118 | +2500 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +28 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +28.5 -112 | 53 -113 | +1800 | — |
| BetUS | +28 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | +27.5 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -108 | 52.5 -102 | +2500 | — |
| FanDuel | +28.5 -120 | 51.5 -115 | +2200 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +28 -106 | 52 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +28 -110 | 52 -110 | +1200 | — |
| Pinnacle | +27.5 -108 | 52 -106 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
TOM: spread +28.0 here against +27.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1752 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1684 |
| Sagarin | +19.0 | +887 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -107 |
| Market (10 books) | +28.0 | +1982 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +28.0 | -110 | +123 | -7.6% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +2200 | +2463 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread +28.0 here against +27.7 consensus.
The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLACFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pmNo betmarket says UCLA by 15.5, our data says UCLA by 14Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 15.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 14. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UCLA by 14 to UCLA by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -105 | 53 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -104 | 53 -107 | -755 | +494 |
All 13 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -105 | 53 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -105 | 53 -105 | -700 | +505 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -105 | 53 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -105 | 53 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -850 | +570 |
| LowVig.ag | -15.5 -101 | 53 -103 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -752 | +460 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -104 | 53 -107 | -755 | +494 |
Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward UCLA). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -285 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -336 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (11 books) | -15.5 | -527 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +15.5 | -115 | -104 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +500 | +472 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at UMass MinutemenStonehill at MassachusettsCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 23% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Stonehill).
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Massachusetts on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -33.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 4.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southeastern Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe WarhawksSoutheastern Louisiana at UL MonroeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover Southeastern Louisiana Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Southeastern Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -490 82¢ | — |
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana).
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks -12.5, only $275 available; Southeastern Louisiana Lions +12.5, only $275 available; Southeastern Louisiana Lions ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -11.5 | -423 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana Lions since 09-14 08:04.
Southeastern Louisiana Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis TigersUT Martin at MemphisCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UT Martin).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Massey | rates UT Martin and Memphis on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UT Martin Skyhawks since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Nicholls State Colonels at Sam Houston State BearkatsNicholls at Sam HoustonCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| Massey | rates Nicholls and Sam Houston on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -18.5 | -904 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Sep 20
14 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Over, Seahawks at CardinalsSeattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmOver 41should be 41.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 43.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -109 | 41 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -103 | 41.5 -107 | +180 | -208 |
All 14 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -109 | 41 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -109 | 41 -115 | +180 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 41 -113 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 41 -115 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +4 -105 | 41.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4 -107 | 41.5 -105 | +183 | -218 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +198 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -104 | 41 -113 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +177 | -232 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -103 | 41.5 -107 | +180 | -208 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.9 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +4.5, only $289 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Kaleb Proctor (DT, Cardinals).
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +170 | +132 | +6.1% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +4.0 | -109 | -139 | +6.0% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmTitans +7should be Titans +6 · getting 1 pt · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · TitansBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Titans. Market says Eagles by 7, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 6. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 39.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -108 | 39 -113 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -118 | 39.5 -112 | +276 | -334 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -108 | 39 -113 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| BetMGM | +7 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -108 | 39 -113 | +274 | -340 |
| BetRivers | +7 -106 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 39 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
| Caesars | +7 -109 | 39.5 -108 | +270 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| Fanatics | +7 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +7 -110 | 39.5 -112 | +280 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -103 | 39 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -118 | 39.5 -112 | +276 | -334 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +7.5, only $376 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +184 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -112 |
| Market (12 books) | +7.0 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.0 | -108 | -136 | +5.7% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +265 | +208 | +5.1% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -113 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 39.0 here against 39.4 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmJets +3.5should be Jets +2.5 · getting 1 pt · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · JetsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jets. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 45 -107 | +162 | -192 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -115 | 45 -109 | +166 | -191 |
All 14 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 45 -107 | +162 | -192 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 45 -107 | +167 | -192 |
| BetRivers | +4 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 44.5 -114 | +166 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -112 | 44.5 -112 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +172 | -205 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -105 | 45 -104 | +167 | -192 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +163 | -212 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -115 | 45 -109 | +166 | -191 |
Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 31% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward Jets, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game | |
| FPI | +2.0 | +131 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | +162 | +135 | +4.4% |
| Spread | New York Jets +3.5 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -107 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward New York Jets since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmVikings +5.5should be Vikings +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3Sniff of Nasty · VikingsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Vikings. Market says Bears by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -107 | 49.5 -105 | -244 | +208 |
All 14 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -245 | +203 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -108 | 49.5 -106 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -105 | 49.5 -102 | -245 | +203 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -242 | +184 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -107 | 49.5 -105 | -244 | +208 |
Marked: best for Vikings, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vikings +5.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F, 38% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 2.5 away from Vikings, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $375 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -155 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | +195 | +183 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings +5.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Chicago Bears since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 3.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmOver 44.5should be 45.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 43Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 4.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Falcons too: market says Panthers by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em, but at -104 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +105 47¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 44.5 -104 | +104 | -117 |
All 14 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +105 47¢ | -121 53¢ |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -104 | 44 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| BetRivers | +1 -108 | 44 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1.5 -115 | 44 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +103 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | +102 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 44 -107 | +102 | -122 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44 -110 | -108 | -118 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 44.5 -104 | +104 | -117 |
Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers -1.5, only $205 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -137 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +1.0 | -104 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +102 | -100 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmSaints +9should be Saints +8 · getting 1 pt · was +7.5Sniff of Nasty · SaintsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Saints. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 8. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 47 -110 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -430 80¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -9 +102 | 47.5 +100 | -412 | +331 |
All 14 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 47 -110 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -430 80¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 47 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -105 | 47 -110 | -425 | +334 |
| BetRivers | -8 -113 | 47.5 -109 | -455 | +340 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 47 -110 | -425 | +333 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 47 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 47 -110 | -440 | +330 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 47 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +100 | 47 -107 | -425 | +334 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 47 -110 | -450 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +102 | 47.5 +100 | -412 | +331 |
Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from Saints, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints).
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -407 here against -345 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -279 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -141 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -407 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +9.0 | -115 | -132 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +315 | +269 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus; moneyline -407 here against -345 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +6.5Sniff of Nasty · BrownsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 41.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 41 -115 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +103 | 41 -116 | -411 | +330 |
All 14 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 41 -115 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 41 -108 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -105 | 41 -115 | -420 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -8 -112 | 41 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 41 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 40.5 -120 | -420 | +325 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 40.5 -115 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -104 | 40.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +101 | 41 -113 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 41 -110 | -461 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +103 | 41 -116 | -411 | +330 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 30% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 2.3 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 41.5, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Browns).
TOM: moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -115 | -131 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +270 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-12 12:03.
TOM: moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmRaiders +7should be Raiders +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +9.5Sniff of Nasty · RaidersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Raiders. Market says Chargers by 7, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 43.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Raiders's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +102 | 44 -101 | -307 | +256 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +263 |
| BetRivers | -7 -114 | 43.5 -109 | -360 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +265 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -7 -107 | 43.5 -113 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -340 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -101 | 43.5 -107 | -325 | +263 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -330 | +244 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +102 | 44 -101 | -307 | +256 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +7.0 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -311 here against -271 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -212 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -123 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +7.0 | -114 | -129 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +250 | +219 | +2.8% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline -311 here against -271 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Commanders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 50 -108 | -200 | +174 |
All 14 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -4 -105 | 50.5 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -195 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 50 -112 | -195 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 50 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 50.5 -112 | -205 | +169 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 50 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -105 | 50.5 -107 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +162 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 50 -108 | -200 | +174 |
Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +165 | +152 | +1.9% |
| Spread | Washington Commanders +3.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Washington Commanders since 09-12 15:27; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmOver 46.5should be 47.5 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. Massey say over by 4.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 46.5 -107 | -164 | +145 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 47 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -102 | 46.5 -115 | -154 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 46.5 -107 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -163 | +127 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 46.5 -107 | -164 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -131 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 51.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals +3.0 | -115 | -104 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | +130 | +140 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pmColts +6.5should be Colts +6 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
All 11 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | — | 48 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | -295 | +230 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -120 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -104 | 47.5 -118 | -295 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -107 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -290 | +214 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +6.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 37% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $272 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 4 more.
TOM: moneyline -287 here against -252 consensus.
Kansas City Chiefs has had 23 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game | |
| FPI | -7.5 | -222 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (9 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +240 | +215 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +6.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: moneyline -287 here against -252 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmSteelers +5.5should be Steelers +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 41.5 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 -108 | -236 | +203 |
All 14 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 41.5 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -107 | 41.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -113 | 42 -108 | -230 | +185 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 42 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 41.5 -117 | -235 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 42 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -118 | 42.5 -105 | -240 | +198 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -102 | 41.5 -102 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 42 -110 | -246 | +186 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 -108 | -236 | +203 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Steelers +5.5 · -113 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 4 more.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.
New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game | |
| FPI | -5.5 | -187 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 40.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +190 | +183 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5 | -113 | -116 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 41.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 3, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -103 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -103 | 44.5 -113 | -140 | +120 |
All 12 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -103 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -103 | 44.5 -113 | -140 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -109 | -148 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -112 | -148 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -144 | +122 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +102 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -152 | +119 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 27% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $14 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Denver Broncos has had 22 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -102 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -125 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -117 | -105 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +120 | +139 | -3.7% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 13.5, our data says 49ers by 12Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 12. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49ers by 13 to 49ers by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -12.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +685 12¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -106 | 45.5 -108 | -1000 | +677 |
All 14 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 45 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -12.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +685 12¢ |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -105 | 45 -110 | -950 | +637 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -1115 | +650 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -950 | +630 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -112 | -950 | +600 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | -1000 | +650 |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -104 | 45.5 -115 | -950 | +640 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 +100 | 45 -107 | -950 | +637 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1000 | +570 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -106 | 45.5 -108 | -1000 | +677 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Nate Hobbs (CB, 49ers), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -724 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -145 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.5 | -687 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +13.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +650 | +478 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -120 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Sep 21
1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Giants, Giants at RamsNew York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pmGiants +7should be Giants +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +8.5Sniff of Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 6.5. At -106 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -114 | 48.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -105 | 48.5 +100 | -320 | +273 |
All 13 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -114 | 48.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +240 28¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 48.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -114 | 49 -108 | -335 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 48.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -335 | +272 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -117 | 48.5 -112 | -345 | +280 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -355 | +280 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 48.5 -106 | -390 | +310 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -105 | 49 -105 | -335 | +270 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -350 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -105 | 48.5 +100 | -320 | +273 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +7.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Giants, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams ML, only $398 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New York Giants's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -182 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +7.0 | -106 | -130 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +260 | +217 | +3.8% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -113 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games
Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game
Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty11-1248%-1.99 units23 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
11-12 · -1.99 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 2-1 | 66.7% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 0-1 | 0.0% | -1.0 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 11-12 | 47.8% | -2.0 u | |
| Not Nasty | 72 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 27 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 27 moved our way, average -0.1 points, and the full board kept the side 22 times, flipped it 1, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina at Clemson | Under 45 | 45 | 44.5 | +0.5 | same side |
| Ohio at South Alabama | Ohio +4 | 4 | 4.5 | -0.5 | same side |
| Purdue at UCLA | Over 53 | 53 | 53 | +0.0 | no call |
| SMU at Louisville | Under 59.5 | 59.5 | 59.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Stanford at Duke | Over 51.5 | 51.5 | 51 | -0.5 | same side |
| Temple at Toledo | Temple +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| UAB at Louisiana | Over 57 | 57 | 56.5 | -0.5 | same side |
| UConn at Southern Miss | Southern Mississippi Golden +3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | +0.5 | same side |
| Virginia Tech at Maryland | Maryland +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Virginia at West Virginia | West Virginia +10 | 10 | 10 | +0.0 | same side |
| Western Michigan at Rice | Rice +12 | 12 | 9.5 | +2.5 | no call |
| Wyoming at Central Michigan | Under 40 | 40 | 40 | +0.0 | same side |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 91 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 13 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.
Since 6:01pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 6.0Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State Beaverstoward Oregon State Beaverswith the public
- → 2.3Temple Owls at Toledo Rocketstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
- → 1.9James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecstoward San Diego State Aztecswith the public
- → 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 53 | 10.38 |
| The market | 105 | 11.03 |
| SP+ | 53 | 11.39 |
| Sagarin | 94 | 13.48 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 46-57 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 478003 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.15 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79 | 1.91 |
| DraftKings | 191 | 1.38 |
| LowVig.ag | 174 | 1.31 |
| BetOnline.ag | 180 | 1.30 |
| Caesars | 159 | 1.28 |
| FanDuel | 236 | 1.23 |
| BetRivers | 213 | 1.14 |
| Fanatics | 155 | 1.10 |
| BetMGM | 179 | 1.03 |
| MyBookie.ag | 144 | 1.00 |
| Bovada | 179 | 0.96 |
| BetUS | 143 | 0.94 |
| TOM | 176 | 0.93 |
| Pinnacle | 178 | 0.88 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated yesterday
- Sagarin NFL updated 7 days ago
- nfelo updated yesterday