Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech -3-108 at BetMGM+4.7%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 9:19am at -3 -108. Now Georgia Tech -3 -108. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts-5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -4.5Texas A&M at LSU▼Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Texas A&M +8 · -105 at TOM, 1.5 points worse, 3 cents better than the +9.5 -108 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 1.5 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGM, a point better, 5 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Georgia Tech -3, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Under 61.5 (Oklahoma State at West Virginia) at 3.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Under 61.5, up 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Massachusetts at Sacramento State slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Georgia Tech at Stanford, Georgia Tech -3. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech to win-144 at FanDuel+5.2%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Under 61.5. Best number on the board, 1.5 points better than Pinnacle, and the total has come up 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Caesars 59.5 at -103 (0.1%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -115 (-0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 59.5 at -118 (0.4%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -108 (0.2%) · Caesars 60.5 at -109 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 48¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 60.5 at -110 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.8%) · TOM +7 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.8%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.8%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -122 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM or TOM +4.5 at -108 (1.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Troy): Caesars +3 at -112 (1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -115 (1.0%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.7%).Moved closer since the 4:39pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 4:39pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Oklahoma State at West Virginia 6:10pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - App State at NC State 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at NC State -11.0: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -13.0 to -12.5.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
19 gamesBest: Georgia Tech -3.0, Nasty PickGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -108 at BetMGM · was -5.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Georgia Tech -3.0 at -108 at BetMGM. Market says Georgia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Georgia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +131 | -148 |
All 20 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 49 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +132 | -152 |
| betPARX | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +132 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 49 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 48.5 -112 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -688 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +102 | 48.5 -106 | +120 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -120 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 49.5 -106 | +132 | -152 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +129 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +131 | -148 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +284 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +185 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +302 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -144 | -180 | +5.2% |
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0 | -108 | -130 | +4.7% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -112 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.7 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB 9:30pmNevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBet it · now Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGM, a point better, 5 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Nevada's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.6 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 50 -114 | +194 | -226 |
All 20 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +205 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +205 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -107 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -2201 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -106 | 50.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +190 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -111 | 50.5 -108 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +192 | -242 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 50 -114 | +194 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +180 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +121 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +195 | +182 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +6.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 10:31; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB 6:30pmTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMBet it · now Texas A&M +8 · -105 at TOM▼Nasty Pick · called at +9.5 -108Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Bet it. Texas A&M +8 · -105 at TOM, 1.5 points worse, 3 cents better than the +9.5 -108 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 8.5 to LSU by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -115 | 52 -110 | -355 | +265 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -106 | 52 -109 | -349 | +286 |
All 21 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -115 | 52 -110 | -355 | +265 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -109 | 52.5 -108 | -345 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -115 | 52 -110 | -355 | +285 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -109 | 52.5 -108 | -345 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -345 | +255 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -355 | +285 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | — | 75.5 -943 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -106 | 52.5 -105 | -335 | +265 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -355 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -111 | 52 -108 | -355 | +285 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -106 | 52 -109 | -349 | +286 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Texas A&M, now Not Nasty.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -194 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -104 |
| Market (19 books) | -8.0 | -340 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +280 | +279 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB 7:00pmTulsa +7should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 pt at TOMA Little Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 7, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 50 -109 | -268 | +227 |
All 20 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7 -113 | 50.5 -112 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -265 | +215 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -780 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -285 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -300 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 50 -109 | -268 | +227 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -144 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0 | -108 | -122 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +220 | +200 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Sagarin and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB 8:00pmSacramento State +4.5should be Sacramento State +3.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +5.5▼A Little Nasty · Sacramento StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Sacramento State. Market says Massachusetts by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 3.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -116 | +165 | -189 |
All 18 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Bally Bet | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +165 | -210 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +165 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -1243 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +160 | -194 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 48.5 -125 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -104 | 49 -108 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -116 | +165 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +4.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Sacramento State.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +395 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -170 |
| Market (17 books) | +4.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +4.5 | -108 | -115 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +160 | +155 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB 6:30pmTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +2.5A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Troy's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +101 | 47 -109 | -138 | +122 |
All 19 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -137 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 47.5 -112 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -137 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -122 | -137 | +110 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 48 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -150 | +126 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1602 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -115 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -101 | 48 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -146 | +119 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +101 | 47 -109 | -138 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -153 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -180 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +126 | +118 | +1.7% |
| Spread | Troy Trojans +3.0 | -115 | -120 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB 6:30pmOver 59.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 61.3 · getting 1.8 pts · was 61.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but USC is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 -118 | +153 | -183 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 61.5 +101 48¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 60.5 -109 | +162 | -186 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 -118 | +153 | -183 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 61.5 +101 48¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 61 -113 | +143 | -180 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -105 | 60 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 -118 | +160 | -183 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 61 -113 | +143 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 61 -114 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -105 | 60.5 -115 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 60.5 -109 | +155 | -185 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 +126 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +146 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 60.5 -120 | +150 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 59.5 -117 | +160 | -183 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +147 | -182 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 60.5 -109 | +162 | -186 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 60.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -118 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +131 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +167 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 64.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +153 | +143 | +1.6% |
| Spread | USC Trojans +3.5 | -108 | -112 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -118 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.4 consensus.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB 6:10pmUnder 61.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 59.1 · getting 2.4 pts · was 60▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 61.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 60 -109 | -119 | +106 |
All 19 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetAnything | -2 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 60.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| betPARX | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 60.5 -113 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2 -107 | 59.5 -118 | -121 | +103 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -531 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 60.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -105 | -125 | +104 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 60.5 -115 | -130 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -125 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -101 | 60.5 -108 | -122 | +102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 60 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 60 -109 | -119 | +106 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward West Virginia).
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +128 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -122 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -195 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.0 | -117 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -2.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -122 | -116 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-21 17:31; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB 6:05pmSouthern Miss +18should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -1064 | +710 |
All 18 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| BetMGM | -18 -108 | 52.5 -105 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -18 -108 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -253 | -987 | +706 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -1050 | +675 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -106 | 52.5 -105 | -1100 | +680 |
| Fliff | -17.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | -1835 | +720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +575 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +610 |
| Pinnacle | -18 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -1064 | +710 |
| theScore Bet | — | 51.5 -120 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Southern Miss).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -566 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -546 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -918 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -887 |
| Market (16 books) | -18.0 | -961 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +700 | +679 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB 6:10pmAlabama -11.5should be Alabama -12.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -505 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -104 | -510 | +395 |
All 21 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -505 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -112 | 53.5 -113 | -590 | +400 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -485 | +375 |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -115 | 53 -115 | -505 | +386 |
| betPARX | -12 -112 | 53.5 -113 | -590 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -12 -113 | 53.5 -114 | -590 | +400 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 53 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -1568 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | -540 | +380 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -111 | 53 -114 | -505 | +386 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -104 | -510 | +395 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.3 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -404 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -500 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.5 | -483 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5 | -115 | -104 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -505 | -413 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-21 17:31; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.3 consensus; total 53.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB 6:30pmNC State -12.5should be NC State -13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 12.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -112 | 56 -108 | -520 | +402 |
All 17 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -590 | +410 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 55.5 -120 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -590 | +410 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -113 | 55.5 -112 | -590 | +410 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 56 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 +365 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 55.5 -115 | -535 | +400 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 56 -110 | -549 | +390 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -112 | 56 -108 | -520 | +402 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward App State). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -12.8 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -443 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -950 |
| Massey | -16.0 | -574 |
| Market (16 books) | -12.5 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack -12.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | -525 | -429 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-21 08:04; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -12.8 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB 6:30pmArizona -10.5should be Arizona -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 10 to Arizona by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +305 | -415 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -103 | 48.5 -103 | +361 | -458 |
All 19 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +305 | -415 |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +320 | -420 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +335 | -415 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +327 | -415 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +320 | -420 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +330 | -415 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 48 -115 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -113 | +320 | -420 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -1416 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | +330 | -430 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +325 | -445 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -101 | 48 -114 | +327 | -415 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 48 -110 | +338 | -463 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -103 | 48.5 -103 | +361 | -458 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 59°F.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +405 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +435 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +370 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +231 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +189 |
| Market (18 books) | +10.5 | +319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -415 | -367 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus; moneyline +319 here against +405 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North TexasCFB 6:30pmHouston Christian +39should be Houston Christian +35 · getting 4 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 39.5 to North Texas by 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -115 | 60 -118 | — | — |
All 16 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41 -113 | 60.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41 -113 | 60.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41 -113 | 60.5 -103 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 -103 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fliff | -37.5 -125 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -115 | 60 -118 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.5 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| Sagarin | -30.0 | -3415 |
| Massey | rates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -39.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Baptist Huskies +39.0 | -115 | -158 | +7.8% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.5 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.2 consensus.
The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB 6:45pmMississippi State -3.5should be Mississippi State -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -115 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +103 | 58.5 -105 | -168 | +148 |
All 21 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -115 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -117 | 58.5 -113 | -186 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -107 | 58.5 -115 | -167 | +147 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -117 | 58.5 -113 | -186 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 58.5 -114 | -186 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -113 | 58.5 -115 | -179 | +150 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -144 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | -175 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -112 | 58.5 -106 | -178 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -103 | 58.5 -114 | -167 | +147 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -184 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +103 | 58.5 -105 | -168 | +148 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Missouri).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +103 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -198 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | -168 | -167 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Missouri Tigers since 09-25 11:56.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB 7:00pmFlorida Atlantic -11.5should be Florida Atlantic -11 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +330 | -460 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -112 | 58 -111 | +379 | -484 |
All 19 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +330 | -460 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -105 | 58 -110 | +365 | -475 |
| BetMGM | +12 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +358 | -460 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +360 | -460 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +360 | -500 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 +112 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | +370 | -485 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | +365 | -490 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | +365 | -510 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -103 | 58 -114 | +358 | -460 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -112 | 58 -111 | +379 | -484 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe).
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +345 here against +441 consensus.
Courtside has the total at 55.5 while Pinnacle is at 58. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +781 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +340 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +262 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.5 | +345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +11.5 | -107 | -102 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +373 | +387 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 13:21; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus; moneyline +345 here against +441 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB 8:00pmSMU -30.5should be SMU -30.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from SMU by 34.5 to SMU by 30.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -105 | 60 -109 | — | — |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -31.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -30.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | — | +2800 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -31.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -31.5 -112 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -30.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -30.5 -118 | 60.5 -107 | — | +2100 |
| Courtside | — | 80.5 -1963 | — | +2889 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| Fliff | -30.5 -120 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -30.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | — | +1750 |
| LowVig.ag | -30.5 -111 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -30.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +1575 |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -105 | 60 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -30.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -35.0, now -30.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Missouri State).
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -4740 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2521 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -27.5 | -2294 |
| Market (19 books) | -30.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +30.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +2500 | +3585 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Missouri State Bears since 09-21 17:31; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB 8:00pmOregon State -11should be Oregon State -12 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +101 | 55.5 -117 | +378 | -483 |
All 19 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +11 -105 | 56 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| BetMGM | +11 -108 | 55.5 -112 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 56 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11 -105 | 56 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Caesars | +11 -109 | 55.5 -120 | +350 | -460 |
| Courtside | — | 78.5 -1702 | +350 | -426 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | +340 | -440 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -106 | 56.5 -106 | +330 | -430 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -120 | 55.5 -125 | +350 | -485 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +11 -106 | 56 -108 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +101 | 55.5 -117 | +378 | -483 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward UTEP).
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has UTEP +12.5 while Pinnacle is at Oregon State by 10.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +543 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +472 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +300 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +416 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.0 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -11.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -450 | -407 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UTEP Miners since 09-20 13:21.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB 9:00pmFresno State -13.5should be Fresno State -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 13 to Fresno State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 43.5 -111 | -509 | +395 |
All 19 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Bally Bet | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -12 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -104 | 43.5 -115 | -530 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1735 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -520 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -120 | 43.5 -120 | -575 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -101 | 43 -114 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 44 -110 | -589 | +409 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 43.5 -111 | -509 | +395 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Rice). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -616 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -511 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -555 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +13.5 | -115 | -100 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +430 | +441 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Rice Owls since 09-21 08:04; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus; total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB 10:00pmMinnesota +11.5should be Minnesota +11 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 11. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Washington by 9.5 to Washington by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -105 | 46 -106 | -441 | +350 |
All 20 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -113 | 46 -109 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -118 | 46.5 -108 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| betPARX | -11 -113 | 46 -109 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -11 -113 | 46 -110 | -590 | +375 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -460 | +340 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -109 | 46.5 -107 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -1800 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -455 | +350 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -465 | +340 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -485 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -106 | 46.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -514 | +366 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -105 | 46 -106 | -441 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -308 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (18 books) | -11.5 | -431 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +11.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +340 | +373 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-20 13:55; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at JaguarsNew England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPatriots +3should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 46 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 46 -112 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -3302 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 46.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -115 | -158 | +134 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 45.5 -115 | -160 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +101 | 46 -109 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 +100 | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -154 | +131 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3.0 | -116 | -123 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +130 | +122 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -111 | -296 | +248 |
All 25 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -315 | +245 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -300 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -107 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 43.5 +169 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +125 | 48 -113 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -300 | +232 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -111 | -296 | +248 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 -104 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -290 | +238 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -325 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -351 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -337 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -116 | -119 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -300 | -304 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
All 25 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 37.5 -102 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 37 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 38 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 37.5 -112 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -1295 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -114 | 37.5 -102 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -115 | 37.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -115 | 37.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -115 | 37.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 37.5 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -142 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 +100 | 38.5 +108 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2 -125 | 37.5 -110 | -139 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 37.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 22 mph wind, 64°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
BetUS has the total at 37 while Pinnacle is at 38.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -197 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 36.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -138 | -140 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.5.
TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmSteelers +3.5should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 43 +103 | +157 | -180 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +157 | -180 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 41.5 +104 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | +152 | -180 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 43 -102 | +157 | -180 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +151 | -188 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 43 +103 | +157 | -180 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -183 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.
Courtside has the total at 41.5 while Pinnacle is at 43. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +157 | +152 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | -115 | -116 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBills -7.5should be Bills -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
All 24 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +274 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +275 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -497 | -331 | +277 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -340 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -415 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -340 | +274 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 -113 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -319 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +7.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.
DraftKings still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.1% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -348 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -217 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -362 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | -101 | -102 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -340 | -322 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmSeahawks -8should be Seahawks -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +300 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +292 | -370 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -105 | 40 -120 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +300 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +300 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9 -125 | 40 -115 | +290 | -360 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 40 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -108 | 40 -113 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -3706 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 -102 | +320 | -410 |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -105 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -105 | 40 -113 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +295 | -391 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 39.5 -108 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +8 -110 | 40 -110 | +330 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 63°F, 49% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.2 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +7.5, only $433 available; Under 39.5, only $181 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +344 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +266 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +258 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +351 |
| Market (22 books) | +8.0 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -370 | -333 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +344 consensus.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL tomorrow 3:05pm49ers -9should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -374 | +304 |
All 25 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -9 -102 | 48 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -105 | 48 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 48 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -8 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -410 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 41.5 +199 | -426 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -440 | +340 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -118 | -450 | +350 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -490 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 +101 | 48 -103 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -429 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -374 | +304 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -410 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -120 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.
Also out: Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Polymarket still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -649 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -497 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -356 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.0 | -103 | -104 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -400 | -381 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTexans -1.5should be Texans -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -114 | 42.5 -103 | +108 | -121 |
All 25 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | +110 | -129 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -1652 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -114 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -109 | +104 | -124 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +103 | -126 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -114 | 42.5 -103 | +108 | -121 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -123 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +110 | +109 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -112 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPanthers -2should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -116 | 42 -110 | +113 | -127 |
All 25 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -112 | 42 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +112 | -132 |
| Bovada | +2 -115 | 42 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -550 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -103 | 42 -113 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +113 | -138 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -116 | 42 -110 | +113 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 | 42.5 +104 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -136 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +1.5, only $234 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Polymarket still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +135 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +147 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers -2.0 | -112 | -107 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | -130 | -126 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmChiefs -10.5should be Chiefs -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -133 | 45 -110 | +529 | -729 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -112 | 45 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | +476 | -650 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 45 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -114 | 45.5 -106 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -2043 | +471 | -600 |
| DraftKings | +10 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +455 | -625 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -105 | +500 | -700 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +515 | -870 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -114 | 45.5 -102 | +476 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +483 | -728 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -133 | 45 -110 | +529 | -729 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -113 | 44.5 | +525 | -567 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +440 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.
DraftKings still has Chiefs -10.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +374 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +429 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +384 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +193 |
| Market (22 books) | +10.5 | +640 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 | -107 | -100 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -625 | -432 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL tomorrow 3:05pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
All 25 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -109 | +102 | -124 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -105 | -112 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -109 | +102 | -124 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -109 | +102 | -124 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +105 | -124 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -2279 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -107 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +101 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 +100 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Vikings).
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 7 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
BetMGM still has Vikings -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Vikings by 2.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +120 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +102 | +108 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 53 -114 | +155 | -176 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +159 | -182 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 53.5 -107 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -4336 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 53.5 -108 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -114 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -107 | +159 | -182 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +153 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 53 -114 | +155 | -176 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 53.5 +104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +149 | -177 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
DraftKings still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +119 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +188 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -118 | -105 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -166 | -155 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmSaints -3should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 44 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 44 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 44 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -112 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -1702 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3 -122 | 43.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 43.5 -112 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +107 | 43.5 -113 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -173 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -104 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -178 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -158 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -177 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -174 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -120 | -116 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -177 | -169 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL tomorrow 7:20pmRams -2should be Rams -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
All 25 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -114 | 43.5 -120 | +113 | -134 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -213 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -118 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -115 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -118 | 44.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 43.5 -113 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +111 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 44.5 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +113 | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 81°F.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, only $61 available; Over 44.5, only $168 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +144 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -2.0 | -113 | -103 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -133 | -121 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 28
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmEagles -3.5should be Eagles -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 42.5 +103 | +161 | -180 |
All 24 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | — | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +158 | -181 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -106 | +154 | -182 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -6611 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +148 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -113 | 42 -113 | +158 | -181 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +154 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 42.5 +103 | +161 | -180 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | — | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +156 | -185 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $42 available; Philadelphia Eagles -3.5, only $136 available; Over 41.5, only $307 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +104 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -118 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -108 |
| Market (21 books) | +3.5 | +158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears +3.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +164 | +174 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Oct 1
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +3should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 37.5 -113 | +119 | -139 |
| Courtside | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 37.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +119 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F, 46% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 37.5, only $73 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $423 available; Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $325 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +151 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +121 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -125 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +124 | +121 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 37.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 2
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmVirginia Tech -6no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| Fliff | — | 56.5 -115 | -225 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -6.5, only $2 available; Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5, only $2 available; Over 56.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game | |
| Market (3 books) | -6.0 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sun Oct 4
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralColts -4.5should be Colts -4.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 46.5 -104 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | +190 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -110 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +173 | -226 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -245 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +177 | -222 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $361 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $306 available; Washington Commanders +4.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +139 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +111 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.5 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | -205 | -193 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 10 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -136 | +116 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -142 | +111 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +113 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $6 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $295 available; New York Giants -2.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -205 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -298 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (9 books) | -2.5 | -127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -135 | -126 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -10.5should be Ravens -10.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -114 | -625 | +450 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -700 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 +101 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -676 | +430 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -649 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $173 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $11 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.0 | -440 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -435 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -421 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -437 |
| Market (11 books) | -10.5 | -578 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -10.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -575 | -428 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -5.5should be Bills -5.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -260 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -104 | -260 | +215 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 +100 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -250 | +189 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -270 | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 | -244 | +194 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills ML, only $481 available; New England Patriots ML, only $243 available; New England Patriots ML, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -206 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -224 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -184 |
| Market (11 books) | -5.5 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +5.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +210 | +217 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBears -3should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 43.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -190 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -186 | +144 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -203 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +147 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $287 available; New York Jets ML, only $394 available; New York Jets ML, only $92 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -234 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -167 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -360 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -298 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -166 | -162 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -125 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 50.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -118 | -144 | +122 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -121 | 50.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -157 | +123 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -163 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 50.5 -110 | -154 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $18 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $256 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -166 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -123 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +136 | +124 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +3should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -146 | +124 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 47.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -159 | +124 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -156 | +127 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans ML, only $5 available; Dallas Cowboys ML, only $271 available; Over 47.5, only $332 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -119 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +136 | +126 | +1.8% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +3should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 46.5 -102 | +122 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +3 -118 | 46.5 -104 | +128 | -152 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +116 | -148 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -156 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -120 | +118 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $262 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $243 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams), Kamren Kinchens (S, Rams) and 1 more.
Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +101 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -118 | -124 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +128 | +121 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -10.5should be Vikings -10.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -120 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -120 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 42.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 43.5 -105 | -560 | +420 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -116 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -676 | +430 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -669 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 | -649 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $402 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $118 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.0 | -456 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -444 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -441 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -361 |
| Market (11 books) | -10.5 | -564 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.5 | -102 | -101 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -560 | -432 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers to winour data says 64 in 100 · -146A Little Nasty · 49ers, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -112 | 45.5 -117 | -159 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3 -102 | 46.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -175 | +136 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -163 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -160 | +130 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $14 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $296 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -380 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -191 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -270 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3.0 | -102 | -122 | +4.5% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -146 | -176 | +4.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmChiefs -5.5should be Chiefs -5.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +6 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +210 | -258 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 45.5 -118 | +198 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +191 | -250 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +195 | -246 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $210 available; Over 45.5, only $392 available; Under 45.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +193 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +218 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +144 |
| Market (11 books) | +5.5 | +227 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +210 | +215 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmSeahawks -6.5should be Seahawks -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, only $354 available; Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $330 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $451 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -320 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -355 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -225 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -447 |
| Market (11 books) | -6.5 | -291 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -285 | -283 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-443%-1.27 units7 games
Closing line value: +0.4 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 7. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-350%-0.23 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty15-2241%-8.28 units37 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-4 · -3.09 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-4 | 42.9% | -1.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 15-22 | 40.5% | -8.3 u | |
| Not Nasty | 160 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 16:39.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 93 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 8.54 | 74 |
| FPI | 10.17 | 130 |
| The market | 10.18 | 184 |
| SP+ | 10.29 | 130 |
| Sagarin | 11.78 | 174 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 76 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 74 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 76 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 93 |
The line archive, 184 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 90 times, against it 65, and sat still 29. Our side taken at the open finished 0.55 points better than the close on average over 174 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.43, our raw ratings number by 12.25, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.53, MyBookie.ag 10.02, Pinnacle 10.03.
The Cut tracker. 3 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 0-1, -1.00 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 12.00 | 33 |
| nfelo | 12.34 | 33 |
| Sagarin | 12.45 | 33 |
| FPI | 13.79 | 18 |
| Massey | 13.93 | 16 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 16 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 16 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 16 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 16 |
The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 15 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 143 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 87 | 13.8 | 25-35 (42%) | 15-19 (44%) |
| Massey | 90 | 13.1 | 19-26 (42%) | 6-15 (29%) |
| The blend | 92 | 13.2 | 19-30 (39%) | 9-14 (39%) |
NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 19 | 9.9 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 17 | 9.9 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 19 | 8.9 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 48 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.
What's changed since 5:35pm
- OffUMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets dropped off. It was Sacramento State Hornets +4.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 11%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 117 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 96 | 9.74 |
| SP+ | 136 | 10.38 |
| The market | 225 | 10.56 |
| FPI | 154 | 10.72 |
| Sagarin | 215 | 11.93 |
| nfelo | 33 | 12.34 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 100-107 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 847072 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 131 | 1.77 |
| DraftKings | 307 | 1.51 |
| BetOnline.ag | 287 | 1.48 |
| LowVig.ag | 279 | 1.48 |
| FanDuel | 328 | 1.48 |
| BetRivers | 317 | 1.40 |
| MyBookie.ag | 219 | 1.38 |
| Bally Bet | 109 | 1.36 |
| ReBet | 103 | 1.36 |
| betPARX | 109 | 1.35 |
| BetUS | 218 | 1.26 |
| BetMGM | 283 | 1.24 |
| Caesars | 251 | 1.20 |
| theScore Bet | 106 | 1.18 |
| Courtside | 69 | 1.17 |
| Fanatics | 253 | 1.17 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 108 | 1.16 |
| Bovada | 286 | 1.15 |
| TOM | 275 | 1.11 |
| Pinnacle | 285 | 1.07 |
| BetAnything | 93 | 0.97 |
| Fliff | 105 | 0.73 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.58 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 0.57 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.52 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 6 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated 3 days ago