Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Eagles at TitansTitans +7.5should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 ptsNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Saturday, but one comes damn near. Same opinion as a Nasty Pick, one thing short.
Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 1 sneaky; the strongest is Purdue +13.5 (Purdue at UCLA) at 0.6% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one.
If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Today
8 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Purdue, Purdue at UCLAPurdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLACFB 10:00pmPurdue +13.5should be Purdue +13 · getting 0.5 pts · was +16A Little Nasty · PurdueBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Purdue. Market says UCLA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 13. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Purdue is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 53 -104 | -652 | +484 |
All 13 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -115 | -625 | +461 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 52 -112 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -625 | +465 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -675 | +460 |
| Caesars | -14 -110 | 52.5 -114 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -650 | +470 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 52.5 -115 | -690 | +480 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -112 | 52.5 -114 | -625 | +461 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 53 -104 | -652 | +484 |
Marked: best for Purdue, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Purdue +13.5 · -104 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Purdue, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -370 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -272 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -318 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -295 |
| Market (11 books) | -13.5 | -589 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +13.5 | -104 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +472 | +394 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-13 17:50.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App StateCFB 8:15pmNo betmarket says App State by 15.5, our data says App State by 16Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 15.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 16. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 5 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 50 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -103 | 52 -118 | -1027 | +691 |
All 9 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -16 -110 | 52.5 -118 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -950 | +637 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -950 | +630 |
| Bovada | -16 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | -1050 | +675 |
| FanDuel | -16.5 -118 | 52.5 -118 | -1100 | +600 |
| LowVig.ag | -15.5 -106 | 53 -108 | -950 | +637 |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -103 | 52 -118 | -1027 | +691 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 66°F, 39% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward Charlotte). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -16.2 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has App State -15.5 while Pinnacle is at App State by 16.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -910 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -482 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -567 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -458 |
| Market (8 books) | -15.5 | -894 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -15.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -987 | -558 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -16.2 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise StateCFB 9:00pmNo betmarket says Boise State by 27.5, our data says Boise State by 24Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 28 to Boise State by 27.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | South Dakota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -115 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28 -111 | 60 -116 | — | +1314 |
All 9 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | South Dakota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -115 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28 -105 | 60.5 -110 | -3000 | +1550 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -115 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -114 | 60 -112 | — | +1400 |
| Bovada | -28 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 +100 | 60.5 -112 | -3200 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -118 | 59.5 -114 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -115 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28 -111 | 60 -116 | — | +1314 |
Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Boise State).
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.9 consensus.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 60.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| FPI | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -426 |
| Massey | rates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -27.5 | -3135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Dakota Coyotes +27.5 | -105 | -127 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | South Dakota Coyotes ML | +1400 | +1579 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 18:39; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.9 consensus; total 61.0 here against 60.2 consensus.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego StateCFB 9:00pmNo betmarket says San Diego State by 1, our data says San Diego State by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San Diego State by 1, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -120 | 46.5 -105 | -128 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -106 | 46.5 -106 | -122 | +109 |
All 12 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -120 | 46.5 -105 | -128 | +108 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -120 | 46.5 -105 | -128 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -114 | 45.5 -115 | -122 | +100 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -126 | +106 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2 -115 | 46.5 -106 | -125 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -128 | +106 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -116 | 46.5 -103 | -128 | +108 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -129 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -106 | 46.5 -106 | -122 | +109 |
Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has San Diego State -1.0 while Pinnacle is at San Diego State by 2.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +126 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -123 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +176 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs -1.0 | -120 | -107 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | -128 | -113 | -3.2% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at ArizonaCFB 9:30pmNo betmarket says Arizona by 34, our data says Arizona by 32Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -103 | 50 -106 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -115 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34 -115 | 49.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -101 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -103 | 50 -106 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 87°F.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -3470 |
| FPI | -26.0 | -2114 |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -2673 |
| Massey | -27.0 | -2410 |
| Market (10 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +34.0 | -115 | -113 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +4500 | +5467 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento StateCFB 9:30pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 25, our data says North Dakota State by 25.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 25.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 25. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26.5 -114 | 50.5 -109 | +1813 | — |
All 12 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +25.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +1900 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1500 | — |
| BetRivers | +25.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | +25 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +26.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| Caesars | +25.5 -105 | 50.5 -114 | +1500 | — |
| DraftKings | +26.5 -105 | 50.5 -118 | +1800 | — |
| FanDuel | +25.5 -108 | 50.5 -115 | +1600 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +25 -106 | 50.5 -108 | +1500 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +25.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1389 | — |
| Pinnacle | +26.5 -114 | 50.5 -109 | +1813 | — |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +27.5, now +26.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Sacramento State).
TOM: spread +25.0 here against +26.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1493 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1439 |
| Sagarin | +19.0 | +790 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +642 |
| Market (11 books) | +25.0 | +3629 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Dakota State Bison -25.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | North Dakota State Bison ML | -5000 | -1888 | priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-14 17:34; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread +25.0 here against +26.1 consensus.
The line is +25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José StateCFB 10:00pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 4, our data says Fresno State by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 4, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 7.5 to Fresno State by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -106 | +165 | -195 |
| Pinnacle | +4 +102 | 47.5 -111 | +174 | -200 |
All 12 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -106 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 48 -106 | +170 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +165 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -105 | 48 -110 | +167 | -195 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -118 | +164 | -197 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +164 | -198 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 48.5 -106 | +168 | -205 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -101 | 48 -104 | +170 | -195 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +171 | -214 |
| Pinnacle | +4 +102 | 47.5 -111 | +174 | -200 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward San José State).
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +266 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +225 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +152 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.0 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -4.0 | -115 | +103 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -195 | -164 | -4.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -114 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-19 09:15; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon StateCFB 10:00pmNo betmarket says Oregon State by 17.5, our data says Oregon State by 15Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Montana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -110 | 55.5 -116 | -1057 | +595 |
All 9 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Montana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -17 -109 | 56 -113 | -910 | +540 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1000 | +625 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -850 | +575 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -1100 | +680 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -110 | 55.5 -116 | -1057 | +595 |
Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 8.0 toward Oregon State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana | |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -165 |
| Massey | rates Montana and Oregon State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -17.5 | -861 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana Grizzlies +17.5 | -112 | -131 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Montana Grizzlies ML | +610 | +499 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 8.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tomorrow
14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5.Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTitans +7.5should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.5% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38.5 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 39 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -120 | 40 -103 | +274 | -332 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 39 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| BetMGM | +7 -102 | 39.5 -108 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -115 | 39 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| BetRivers | +7 -110 | 39.5 -112 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 39 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +265 | -330 |
| Caesars | +7 -109 | 39.5 -109 | +270 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -114 | 39 -107 | +274 | -340 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -120 | 40 -103 | +274 | -332 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.
TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +277 here against +310 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.0 | +206 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +184 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +216 |
| Market (12 books) | +7.5 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -115 | -132 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +265 | +234 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +310 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 48weather: 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 71% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -103 | 48.5 +103 | -212 | +184 |
All 14 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -215 | +183 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -230 | +185 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -109 | 47.5 -115 | -218 | +183 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -118 | 47.5 -118 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -220 | +184 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -103 | 48 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -224 | +180 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -103 | 48.5 +103 | -212 | +184 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 66°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Vikings).
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -202 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -213 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 41.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -4.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -215 | -190 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -107 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-13 17:50; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 4, our data says Seahawks by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 41.5 +101 | +169 | -193 |
All 14 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetMGM | +4 -112 | 41 -105 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -117 | 40.5 -113 | +174 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4 -114 | 40.5 -118 | +174 | -209 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 40.5 -115 | +170 | -205 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 41.5 -102 | +176 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -113 | 40.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +173 | -216 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 41.5 +101 | +169 | -193 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Cardinals).
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +251 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +294 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +162 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +170 | +158 | +1.7% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +4.0 | -117 | -116 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -113 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL tomorrow 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 2.5, our data says Broncos by 2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Broncos by 3 to Broncos by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -107 | -152 | +134 |
All 14 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3 -105 | 45 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 45.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +126 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 45.5 -107 | -153 | +133 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +126 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -107 | -152 | +134 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 27% chance of rain.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +139 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +128 | +124 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | -101 | +100 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +106 | 42 +103 | -406 | +326 |
All 14 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -102 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -112 | 41.5 -108 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +103 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -8 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +340 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 41.5 -107 | -420 | +325 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | -470 | +360 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 41 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 +100 | 41.5 -102 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +108 | 41.5 -107 | -435 | +340 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -429 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +106 | 42 +103 | -406 | +326 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -287 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -321 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -253 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -207 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -118 | -121 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +325 | +294 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-13 17:38; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL tomorrow 3:05pmRaiders +6.5should be Raiders +6.5 · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +237 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -111 | 43 -118 | -301 | +252 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +237 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +243 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -295 | +245 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -297 | +243 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -111 | 43 -118 | -301 | +252 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -216 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -271 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.5 | -284 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +237 | +219 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 9, our data says Ravens by 9Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +102 | 46.5 +101 | -414 | +332 |
All 14 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +101 | 46 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -107 | 46 -112 | -435 | +325 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 46 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 46 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 45.5 -118 | -400 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 46.5 +102 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | -430 | +340 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +106 | 46 -107 | -410 | +324 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +102 | 46.5 +101 | -414 | +332 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 35% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -336 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -283 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -292 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +300 | +298 | +0.1% |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +9.0 | -121 | -120 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.3 consensus.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +107 | 43.5 -107 | +134 | -151 |
All 14 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 43.5 -112 | +120 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 43.5 -107 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -153 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +107 | 43.5 -107 | +134 | -151 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Panthers).
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +126 |
| Sagarin | PK | -138 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -171 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | +100 | +106 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +125 | +132 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 45.5 -105 | -152 | +135 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 46 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 45.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -112 | -152 | +128 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -138 | +118 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 45.5 -105 | -152 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -134 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -134 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -160 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans -2.5 | -117 | -111 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -145 | -138 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 44 -110 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 45 -102 | +148 | -168 |
All 14 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 44 -110 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 44.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +151 | -172 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 44.5 -113 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -103 | 44.5 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 44.5 -107 | +151 | -172 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +151 | -187 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 45 -102 | +148 | -168 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Jets).
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +155 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +136 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +168 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +135 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | -113 | +100 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -172 | -146 | -3.9% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward New York Jets since 09-13 17:38; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus; moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 +102 | -237 | +203 |
All 14 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +203 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 42 -109 | -240 | +195 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -235 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 41.5 -108 | -225 | +185 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -120 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -105 | 41.5 -107 | -245 | +203 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -242 | +192 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 +102 | -237 | +203 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 61°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Patriots).
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -186 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -186 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -166 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -5.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -240 | -190 | -5.1% |
| Total | Under 41.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -103 | 50 -121 | -198 | +172 |
All 13 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -107 | 51 -107 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4 -111 | 50.5 -112 | -209 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -120 | 50.5 -120 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -102 | 50.5 -114 | -200 | +168 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -105 | 50.5 -113 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 51 -110 | -202 | +162 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -103 | 50 -121 | -198 | +172 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -161 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -177 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -172 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.0 | -110 | +112 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -205 | -164 | -5.1% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 13, our data says 49ers by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -102 | 45.5 +102 | -1028 | +691 |
All 14 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | -1050 | +686 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | -1050 | +680 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -13 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | -950 | +625 |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -950 | +640 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -105 | 45 -102 | -1050 | +686 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1122 | +658 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -102 | 45.5 +102 | -1028 | +691 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -431 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -731 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -642 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -901 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -13.0 | -115 | -110 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -1000 | -550 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL tomorrow 7:20pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 6.5, our data says Chiefs by 6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 47 +103 | -268 | +227 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | — | 46.5 -108 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -295 | +241 |
| BetRivers | -6 -115 | 46.5 -109 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -6 -110 | 46.5 +105 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -107 | 46.5 -107 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings | -6 -112 | 46.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 +100 | 46.5 -102 | -295 | +241 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -280 | +221 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 47 +103 | -268 | +227 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 30% chance of rain.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -243 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -280 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -216 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | -105 | +113 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -295 | -222 | -5.7% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 21
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -102 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 48.5 +101 | -311 | +266 |
All 14 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -102 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -108 | 48 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -102 | 48 -110 | -300 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 48 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -7 -105 | 47.5 -118 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -310 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 48 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 47.5 -115 | -330 | +265 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +103 | 48 -107 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 48 -110 | -330 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 48.5 +101 | -311 | +266 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -179 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7.0 | -102 | +115 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -300 | -245 | -3.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Packers by 6, our data says Packers by 7.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
All 6 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -120 | 46.5 -106 | -295 | +240 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -275 | +225 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -295 | +220 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.
Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -252 |
| FPI | -13.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -209 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -195 |
| Market (5 books) | -6.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -295 | -244 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Sep 26
4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Ohio State by 27, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Ohio State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| Market (2 books) | -27.0 | -4152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Michigan by 4.5, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -218 67¢ | +159 37¢ |
All 3 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -218 67¢ | +159 37¢ |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -192 | +160 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | — | -228 | +174 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Iowa).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| Market (2 books) | -4.5 | -190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 39.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmNo betmarket says Penn State by 11.5, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| Market (2 books) | -11.5 | -428 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says USC by 1.5, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -121 53¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| Market (1 books) | -1.5 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.5 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 63.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sun Sep 27
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -155 59¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 38.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -155 59¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 38.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 39.5 -112 | +123 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 40 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -114 | 39.5 -109 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 39.5 -105 | +130 | -154 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -110 | 38.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +120 | -154 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $193 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +110 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (8 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +123 | +137 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +112 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -114 | 46.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -138 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +103 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +113 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (8 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 46.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +113 | +128 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -112 | +118 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 44.5 -110 | +119 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +114 | -146 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +127 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +122 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +125 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (8 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +118 | +133 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 46 -112 | -132 | +110 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | -132 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -132 | +112 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -137 | +107 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.
New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -114 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -163 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -122 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -142 |
| Market (8 books) | -2.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +2.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +112 | +132 | -4.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +350 | -480 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -480 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +430 | -590 |
| LowVig.ag | +8.5 -105 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +370 | -549 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.5 | +294 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +349 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +369 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +161 |
| Market (8 books) | +8.5 | +455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 | -110 | +119 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -502 | -292 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 42 -105 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +208 31¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 42 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6 -110 | 43 -108 | -275 | +220 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -110 | 42 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -270 | +202 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -204 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -240 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -200 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (8 books) | -5.5 | -243 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -5.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -267 | -198 | -6.3% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +105 47¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +105 47¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 42 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -114 | +107 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +102 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 41.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +105 | -133 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks ML, only $488 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.
Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +153 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -166 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +148 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +192 |
| Market (8 books) | +2.5 | +119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +109 | +127 | -3.7% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -458 81¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -458 81¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -105 | 48.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -461 | +320 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).
San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -10.0 | -332 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -379 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -472 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -219 |
| Market (8 books) | -8.5 | -441 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -8.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -480 | -300 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmBuccaneers to winour data says 57 in 100 · -120A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -121 53¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -121 53¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -121 | +100 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -120 | +101 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -116 | -102 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -126 | -101 |
Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -120. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -150 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -1.0 | +120 |
| Market (8 books) | -1.5 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -120 | -130 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +134 41¢ | -175 62¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 52 -115 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +134 41¢ | -175 62¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -107 | 52.5 -109 | +132 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -105 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 52 -113 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.0 | +163 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +143 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +146 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +214 |
| Market (7 books) | +3.0 | +149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -159 | -147 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -162 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 44.5 -118 | -164 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -174 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 45 -110 | -172 | +134 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -170 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -158 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -147 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -163 | -145 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmNo betmarket says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +108 | -137 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +122 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +113 |
| Market (8 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +113 | +133 | -4.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-250%-0.22 units4 games
Closing line value: +1.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game
Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty13-1252%-0.13 units25 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-0 · +0.95 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 2-2 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 0-1 | 0.0% | -1.0 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 13-12 | 52.0% | -0.1 u | |
| Not Nasty | 101 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-19 19:16.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 124 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 27%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 10.25 | 80 |
| SP+ | 10.80 | 80 |
| The market | 10.93 | 124 |
| Sagarin | 12.85 | 114 |
| Massey | 13.25 | 36 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 80 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.95 | 36 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.04 | 80 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.23 | 114 |
The line archive, 124 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 62 times, against it 44, and sat still 18. Our side taken at the open finished 0.66 points better than the close on average over 118 games. The close misses the final by 10.78, the open by 10.92, our raw ratings number by 13.49, Pinnacle's close by 10.73. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.90, MyBookie.ag 10.42, Pinnacle 10.73.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 17 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.02 | 2 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 17 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 12 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming at Central Michigan | Under | 40 | 40 | +0.0 | same side |
| Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Over | 44.5 | 44.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans | Over | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Minnesota +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Over | 41 | 41 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Over | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | New York +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 75 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.4 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 31 | 12.7 | 13-13 (50%) | 8-8 (50%) |
| Massey | 36 | 11.8 | 8-6 (57%) | 3-3 (50%) |
| The blend | 36 | 12.2 | 11-12 (48%) | 6-4 (60%) |
NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 3 | 6.1 | 3-0 (100%) | — |
| FPI | 1 | 18.6 | — | — |
| The blend | 3 | 6.7 | 2-0 (100%) | — |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 17 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 40 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 7:22pm
Nothing has moved.
Closest to the Cut
Not picks. Where the number has to go before Buck bets it, in points at today's price or in cents at today's line, and which way it has been walking. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Purdue at UCLA 10:00pm
Purdue +13.5 at -104: 0.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%.
needs Purdue +14.5 at -104, or Purdue +13.5 at +106 (Kalshi under 47 cents). · flat, flat since yesterday - Fresno State at San José State 10:00pm
Fresno State -4.0 at -115: -4.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%.
needs Fresno State -2.5 at -115, or Fresno State -4.0 at +116 (Kalshi under 44 cents). · flat, 2.2 pt away from the Nasty Number since yesterday
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is -27%, give or take 14% (one standard error, 141 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 82 | 10.28 |
| SP+ | 80 | 10.80 |
| The market | 141 | 10.95 |
| Sagarin | 131 | 12.70 |
| Massey | 37 | 13.10 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 63-70 | 47% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 812944 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.26 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 83 | 1.98 |
| LowVig.ag | 204 | 1.43 |
| BetOnline.ag | 210 | 1.42 |
| DraftKings | 236 | 1.36 |
| FanDuel | 260 | 1.29 |
| BetMGM | 196 | 1.25 |
| BetRivers | 244 | 1.25 |
| Caesars | 186 | 1.22 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.20 |
| BetUS | 155 | 1.16 |
| MyBookie.ag | 159 | 1.13 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.13 |
| TOM | 191 | 1.09 |
| Fanatics | 179 | 1.09 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 6 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated yesterday
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated 4 days ago