Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Texas A&M at LSU▲Texas A&M +9-110 at TOM+4.4%Sat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:33pm at +9.5 -108. Now Texas A&M +9 -110, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 0.5 pts+8.5 open Sunnow +9Nasty Number +7Colorado State at UTSAMoved our way · 1 ptColorado State +13.5+108 at TOM+3.9%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:33pm at +13 -110. Now Colorado State +13.5 +108, half a point better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+12.5 open Sunnow +13.5Nasty Number +12Air Force at Nevada▲Moved our way · 2.6 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +5.5 · -104 at FanDuel, half a point better, 1 cent better than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Texas A&M +9, Colorado State +13.5 and Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Sacramento State +5. Every system has Sacramento State by 1; the market has Massachusetts by 5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +5.
Eagles at Bears, Bears +4.5. Every system has a pick'em; the market has Eagles by 4.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Under 61.5 (Oklahoma State at West Virginia) at 3.2% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Oklahoma State at West Virginia, Under 61.5, up 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Eagles at Bears climbed to Damn Near Nasty; UConn at Miami (OH) climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Bengals at Steelers slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Texas A&M at LSU, Texas A&M +9. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
3 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Sacramento State): TOM +5 at -108 (7.3%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (6.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (5.8%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4.5 for -108 at TOM · 1 point away
Where, best first (UConn): TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (2.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (1.7%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.1 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +4.5 at +100 (4.7%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (3.4%) · Caesars +4.5 at -106 (3.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +4.5 at -107 (2.9%) · Fanatics or TOM +4.5 at -110 (2.3%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49. The total has come down 2.5 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (2.5%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (2.1%) · TOM 49 at -110 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (3.2%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -112 (2.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 61.5 at -115 (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): TOM or BetMGM -129 (2.6%) · Kalshi 55¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings -135 (1.5%) · FanDuel -144 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 48.5 at 48¢ (1.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (1.6%) · TOM 48 at -105 (1.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (1.1%) · Caesars 47.5 at -117 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 47.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 48.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (3.3%) · DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi 50.5 at -115 (2.2%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 54¢ (2.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars 51.5 at -108 (1.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 54.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Clemson): Caesars PK at -110 (2.7%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -106 (1.0%) · Kalshi -1.5 at 50¢ (0.7%) · TOM -1 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (James Madison): TOM -6 at -102 (2.2%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (0.7%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (0.6%) · BetMGM -6 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -122 (-1.1%).Points or price: -5.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -6 (the games that land on 6); -122 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings +3 at -112 (1.6%) · TOM +3 at -115 (0.9%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 61 at -110 (1.8%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 61.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 51¢ (0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Penn State): Fanatics -10 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -10 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (1.2%) · TOM -10 at -117 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -9.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10 (the games that land on 10); -120 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): TOM -3.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM -3.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -110 (0.2%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.7%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State): TOM -13 at -107 (0.6%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -106 (0.1%) · BetMGM -13 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -110 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.5%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.2%).Points or price: 55 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 47¢ (-3.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -120 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -115 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 56.5 at -112 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.2 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -118 (1.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (0.9%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Moved closer since the Wed 23 Sep, 6:07pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Wed 23 Sep, 6:07pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UConn at Miami (OH) tomorrow 2:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -110 to -108. - Virginia Tech at Boston College tomorrow 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -105 to -108. - UCLA at Maryland tomorrow 12:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Wisconsin at Penn State tomorrow 4:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -108 to -110. - James Madison at Old Dominion tomorrow 5:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -108 to -102. - Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville State tomorrow 6:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Oregon at USC tomorrow 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -105 to -106. - Rice at Fresno State tomorrow 9:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -13.5 to -13.0; the price from -110 to -107.
And 20 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at CaliforniaClemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB 9:30pmClemson PKshould be Clemson -2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says Clemson by 1, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -102 | -118 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 +101 | 50.5 -114 | +105 | -119 |
All 21 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -102 | -118 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1 -112 | 51 -107 | -105 | -117 |
| BetAnything | +1 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | -102 | -118 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -102 | -118 |
| betPARX | +1 -112 | 51 -107 | -105 | -117 |
| BetRivers | +1 -113 | 51 -108 | -106 | -118 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 51 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1718 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -114 | 51.5 -104 | -104 | -115 |
| Fliff | -0.5 -110 | 50.5 -125 | -105 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -101 | 51.5 -103 | -102 | -118 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -101 | -121 |
| Pinnacle | +1 +101 | 50.5 -114 | +105 | -119 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -116 | 51 -114 | -101 | -121 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson PK · -110 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 63°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $178 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +172 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +191 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +219 |
| Market (19 books) | +1.0 | +102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers PK | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -115 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB 3:00pmOver 48Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 49.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3 to Army by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -108 | 48 -106 | +153 | -174 |
All 21 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -117 | 47.5 -109 | +138 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +4 -118 | 47.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +157 | -180 |
| betPARX | +4 -117 | 47.5 -109 | +138 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +4 -117 | 47.5 -110 | +138 | -177 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -113 | 47.5 -117 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 52.5 -204 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +152 | -184 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -120 | +145 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 48 -103 | +157 | -180 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +158 | -197 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -108 | 48 -106 | +153 | -174 |
| ReBet | +4 -116 | 47.5 -116 | +158 | -197 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +179 |
| FPI | -0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +189 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.5 | -108 | -107 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +150 | +151 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UABCFB 6:00pmOver 51.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 52.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 6, the Nasty Number says Navy by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 10.5 to Navy by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -126 54¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 51.5 +100 | +214 | -251 |
All 20 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -126 54¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -113 | 51.5 -104 | +205 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -113 | 51.5 -104 | +205 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -113 | 51.5 -105 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +215 | -265 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -1138 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +202 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +195 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -101 | 51.5 -103 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +202 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 51.5 +100 | +214 | -251 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 51 -116 | +202 | -255 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -125 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 5.7 toward UAB). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +214 here against +235 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.5 | +417 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +267 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +180 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +293 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 57.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -6.0 | -115 | -112 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -255 | -226 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.5 consensus; moneyline +214 here against +235 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Howard Bison at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsHoward at RutgersCFB 6:00pmHoward +42should be Howard +39 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Rutgers by 42.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Rutgers by 43.5 to Rutgers by 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42 -113 | 56 -108 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -42.5 -109 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -42.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -42.5 -109 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42.5 -110 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| Bovada | -42 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -42 -112 | 56.5 -113 | — | — |
| Courtside | -41.5 -118 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -120 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -118 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -42.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42 -113 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -42.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -42.5 +100 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Howard | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Howard | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Howard and Rutgers on different scales | |
| Market (15 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Howard Bison +42.5 | -110 | -153 | +8.0% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB 7:00pmIndiana -20should be Indiana -19.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 22.5 to Indiana by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -112 | 50.5 -113 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -109 | 50 -107 | -1473 | +905 |
All 22 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -112 | 50.5 -113 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +975 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -1600 | +1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -112 | 50.5 -113 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -20 -115 | 50 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Caesars | -20 -113 | 49.5 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -743 | -1635 | +1064 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -112 | -1800 | +1000 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +920 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -120 | -2170 | +960 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -2000 | +850 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -108 | 50 -108 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1887 | +910 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -109 | 50 -107 | -1473 | +905 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -119 | 49.5 -114 | -1887 | +910 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 3.4 toward Northwestern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -917 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -797 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (20 books) | -20.0 | -1391 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +20.0 | -108 | -102 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1074 | +869 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -107 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Tomorrow
65 gamesBest: Texas A&M +9.0, NastiestTexas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB tomorrow 6:30pmTexas A&M +9should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 2 pts · -110 at TOM · was +5.5▲NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Texas A&M +9.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 52 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -101 | 52 -105 | -339 | +271 |
All 21 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 52 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -109 | 52 -108 | -360 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 52 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -9 -109 | 52 -108 | -360 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -113 | 52 -109 | -360 | +260 |
| BetUS | -9 -110 | 52 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 52 -105 | -340 | +270 |
| Courtside | — | 37.5 +420 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -360 | +280 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 51.5 -125 | -370 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 52 -108 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -101 | 52 -105 | -339 | +271 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -111 | 51.5 -116 | -350 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Texas A&M. The line went from -8.5 to -9.0.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -194 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -104 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +9.0 | -110 | -131 | +4.4% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +275 | +233 | +3.4% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB tomorrow 11:00amColorado State +13.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Colorado State +12 · getting 1.5 pts · +108 at TOMNasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Colorado State +13.5 at +108 at TOM. Market says UTSA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -128 | 57 -115 | -565 | +395 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 56.5 -110 | -621 | +445 |
All 18 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -128 | 57 -115 | -565 | +395 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -109 | 57.5 -113 | -835 | +525 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -128 | 57 -115 | -565 | +425 |
| betPARX | -14 -109 | 57.5 -113 | -835 | +525 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 57.5 -113 | -835 | +525 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57 -115 | -565 | +435 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -925 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 56.5 -115 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 56.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -120 | 57 -114 | -565 | +425 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 56.5 -110 | -621 | +445 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 57 -114 | -625 | +430 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -269 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -222 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -388 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -400 |
| Market (17 books) | -13.5 | -541 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +13.5 | +108 | -108 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +450 | +407 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB tomorrow 9:30pmNevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 2.6 ptsBet it · now Nevada +5.5 · -104 at FanDuel▲Nasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +5.5 · -104 at FanDuel, half a point better, 1 cent better than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Nevada's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -107 | 50 -114 | +189 | -224 |
All 18 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -114 | 49.5 -117 | +185 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -108 | 50.5 -115 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -114 | 49.5 -117 | +185 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 49.5 -117 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -761 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 50.5 -115 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -104 | 50.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +185 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -108 | 51.5 -103 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +186 | -234 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -107 | 50 -114 | +189 | -224 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +5.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 50.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +210 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +180 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +125 |
| Market (16 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +195 | +176 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +5.5 | -104 | -109 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -115 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 50.3 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +210 consensus.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB tomorrow 8:00pmSacramento State +5should be Sacramento State +2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Sacramento State +5.0: FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.3% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +4 +101 | 48.5 -108 | +166 | -195 |
All 17 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bally Bet | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +163 | -205 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +163 | -205 |
| BetRivers | +5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +163 | -205 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +167 | -195 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -209 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +164 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -104 | 48.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4 +101 | 48.5 -108 | +166 | -195 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +5.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.3 consensus.
BetOnline.ag still has Sacramento State +5.0 while Pinnacle is at Massachusetts by 4.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +395 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -171 |
| Market (16 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +5.0 | -108 | -145 | +7.3% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +170 | +128 | +6.8% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.3 consensus.
FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB tomorrow 2:30pmUConn +3.5should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. UConn +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 52 -106 | -178 | +153 |
All 19 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -177 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -177 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Courtside | — | 50.5 +104 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -114 | -176 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -188 | +152 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 52 -106 | -178 | +153 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 51.5 -116 | -188 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UConn, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +4.5 or better.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -146 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +150 | +134 | +2.7% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.5 | -108 | -119 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.3.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB tomorrow 5:00pmJames Madison -6should be James Madison -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -3A Little Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 6, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 6.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but James Madison is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -118 | 44.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 44.5 -108 | +189 | -224 |
All 19 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -118 | 44.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -113 | 44.5 -113 | +175 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -118 | 44.5 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| betPARX | +6 -113 | 44.5 -113 | +175 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 44.5 -114 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -203 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 44.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | +198 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | +195 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -106 | 44.5 -108 | +183 | -215 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 44.5 -108 | +189 | -224 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -117 | 44.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -110 | 44.5 +100 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -6.0 · -102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +6.0. The market has moved 3.2 toward James Madison, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +210 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +299 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +182 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +293 |
| Market (17 books) | +6.0 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -6.0 | -102 | -111 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -215 | -225 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 7.0.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +210 consensus.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB tomorrow 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3.5should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -5.5▼A Little Nasty · Georgia TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Georgia Tech by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 48 -116 | +145 | -169 |
All 18 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +145 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +145 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -114 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -511 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | +146 | -176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -111 | 48.5 -114 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +147 | -182 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 48 -116 | +145 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech -3.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Georgia Tech.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +159 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +284 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +185 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +300 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 | -105 | -111 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -170 | -179 | +1.1% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +159 consensus.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB tomorrow 4:00pmPenn State -10should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was -11.5A Little Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -117 | 44 -105 | -385 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 44 -105 | -393 | +307 |
All 20 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -117 | 44 -105 | -385 | +295 |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -10 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -117 | 44 -105 | -385 | +306 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44 -109 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -385 | +308 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 44 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -369 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 43.5 -125 | -415 | +305 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -109 | 44 -103 | -385 | +306 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 44 -105 | -393 | +307 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 43.5 -119 | -461 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State -10.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -585 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -562 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -326 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -551 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -385 | -400 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00.
TOM matches the consensus.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB tomorrow 2:00pmHawai'i to winMoved our way · 2 ptsour data says 59 in 100 · -129A Little Nasty · Hawai'iBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Hawai'i. Market says Hawai'i by 2, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3. At -129 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 44 -104 | +113 | -130 |
All 19 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2 -108 | 43.5 -110 | +109 | -129 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| betPARX | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | — | 52.5 -304 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 43.5 -114 | +120 | -144 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 43.5 -105 | +109 | -129 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 44 -104 | +113 | -130 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 43.5 -116 | +114 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -129 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Hawai'i. The line went from +3.0 to +2.0.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +306 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +116 |
| Market (17 books) | +2.0 | +114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -129 | -143 | +2.6% |
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.0 | -112 | -124 | +2.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB tomorrow 7:00pmOver 50.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 52.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 52.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Tulsa too: market says Arkansas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6, but at -125 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Tulsa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 51 -108 | -279 | +229 |
All 18 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -113 | 50.5 -108 | -305 | +240 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -7 -113 | 50.5 -108 | -305 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -7 -114 | 50.5 -109 | -315 | +235 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 51 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -761 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -115 | -300 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +109 | 50.5 -114 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -290 | +226 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 51 -108 | -279 | +229 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -125 | 50.5 -115 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.5 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.0 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -144 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -523 |
| Market (16 books) | -7.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +225 | +199 | +2.6% |
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5 | -125 | -138 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.0 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Troy's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -112 | -145 | +126 |
All 18 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -152 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -816 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -105 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -101 | 47 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -153 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -112 | -145 | +126 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -109 | -153 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -153 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -181 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +3.0 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +126 | +118 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 6.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB tomorrow 6:30pmOver 61should be 62.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 61.5▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 61.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in USC's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 61 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 62 -103 | +136 | -158 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 61 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110 | 61.5 -109 | +130 | -157 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +142 | -162 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 61.5 -108 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 61 -110 | +142 | -162 |
| betPARX | +3 -110 | 61.5 -109 | +130 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -112 | 61.5 -110 | +128 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 61 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 61.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | — | 82.5 -979 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 61.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 61.5 -120 | +130 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 61 -108 | +142 | -162 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 62 -103 | +136 | -158 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -114 | +132 | -162 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -105 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 61.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 4.8 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +131 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +169 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 64.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +140 | +123 | +3.2% |
| Spread | USC Trojans +3.0 | -106 | -114 | +1.8% |
| Total | Over 61.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.8 consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -9A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.1 away from Jacksonville State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -736 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -215 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -405 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -254 |
| Market (17 books) | -7.0 | -269 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -285 | -279 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB tomorrow 9:00pmFresno State -13should be Fresno State -14 · getting 1 pt at TOM▲A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. At -107 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -107 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -103 | -557 | +409 |
All 17 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -107 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 44.5 -107 | -670 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -520 | +395 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -107 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 44.5 -107 | -670 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -109 | 44.5 -107 | -670 | +440 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -575 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -2584 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 -110 | -610 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -103 | 44.5 -103 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -590 | +418 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -103 | -557 | +409 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State -13.0 · -107 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Fresno State. The line went from -13.5 to -13.0.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -616 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -511 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -554 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.0 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -107 | -109 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -525 | -473 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB tomorrow 6:00pmOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 51.5▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -112 | +191 | -228 |
All 18 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Bally Bet | +6 -109 | 55.5 -118 | +195 | -250 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 55.5 -102 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6 -109 | 55.5 -118 | +195 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 55.5 -118 | +195 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -1103 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -114 | 55.5 -105 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +180 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -111 | 55 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +187 | -234 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -112 | +191 | -228 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 55.5 -109 | +187 | -234 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +173 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +145 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +103 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +191 |
| Market (17 books) | +6.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +195 | +193 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | -115 | -110 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -112 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 54.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 56 · getting 1.5 pts · was 56.5▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +165 | -205 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 55 -106 | +170 | -199 |
All 21 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +165 | -205 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -113 | 55 -108 | +165 | -210 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 55 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +177 | -205 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -113 | 55 -108 | +165 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 55 -109 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +5 -115 | 55 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -1103 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 55 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 | +165 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -101 | 54.5 -108 | +177 | -205 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 55 -110 | +176 | -220 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 55 -106 | +170 | -199 |
| ReBet | +5 -111 | 55 -111 | +176 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.8 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +172 here against +189 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +270 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +114 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +119 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.5 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 58.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +180 | +169 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +4.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.8 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus; moneyline +172 here against +189 consensus.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB tomorrow 11:00amUnder 47.5weather: 24 mph wind and 74% chance of rain, worth about 5.9 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 24 mph wind and 74% chance of rain, worth about 5.9 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 6.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 +101 48¢ | 45.5 | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -113 | 47 -111 | +433 | -600 |
All 19 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 +101 48¢ | 45.5 | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -109 | 47.5 -108 | +450 | -625 |
| BetAnything | +14 -110 | 47 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| BetMGM | +14 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +14 -109 | 47.5 -108 | +450 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +14 -110 | 47.5 -109 | +420 | -625 |
| BetUS | +14 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +14 -115 | 47 -115 | +425 | -600 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -514 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 +100 | 47.5 -102 | +480 | -690 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +450 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 47.5 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +460 | -676 |
| Pinnacle | +14 -113 | 47 -111 | +433 | -600 |
| ReBet | +14 -111 | 47.5 -111 | +470 | -699 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 24 mph wind, 56°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.9 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Boston College).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $198 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +449 here against +551 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +546 |
| FPI | +15.0 | +550 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +381 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (17 books) | +14.0 | +449 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -14.0 | -108 | -106 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -600 | -512 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 6.3.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.2 consensus; moneyline +449 here against +551 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB tomorrow 12:30pmUnder 57should be 55.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total. The market's total is 57; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says UCLA by 1.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UCLA by 2.5 to UCLA by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 57 -103 | +104 | -119 |
All 19 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -108 | 57 -112 | +104 | -127 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -108 | 57 -112 | +104 | -127 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 57 -113 | +104 | -129 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Courtside | — | 78.5 -1800 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -106 | 56.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 57 -103 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -102 | -120 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 57 -103 | +104 | -119 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -116 | 56.5 -114 | -102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -115 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 66°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -107 |
| FPI | -0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -110 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (17 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +1.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +100 | +104 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 5.4.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB tomorrow 5:30pmOver 49Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 50.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 10, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -107 | 49 -110 | +305 | -415 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -105 | 49 -111 | +326 | -422 |
All 19 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -107 | 49 -110 | +305 | -415 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| BetMGM | +10 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +333 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -107 | 49 -110 | +327 | -415 |
| betPARX | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +330 | -415 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 49 -115 | +320 | -430 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -1191 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +330 | -430 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -103 | 49 -108 | +327 | -415 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +330 | -441 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -105 | 49 -111 | +326 | -422 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -116 | 48.5 -116 | +330 | -441 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.4 toward Charlotte).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -10.5, only $123 available; Over 49.5, only $172 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +388 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +14.5 | +533 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +260 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +278 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +291 |
| Market (17 books) | +10.0 | +319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +10.0 | -107 | -106 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +333 | +317 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +388 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUnder 61.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 59.3 · getting 2.2 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 61.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -106 | 61 -106 | -124 | +108 |
All 19 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 61 -112 | -129 | +104 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 72.5 -360 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | -126 | +105 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 60.5 -125 | -130 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 61.5 -108 | -126 | +106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 61 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -106 | 61 -106 | -124 | +108 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 60.5 -119 | -129 | +106 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 4.4 toward West Virginia).
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +128 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -122 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -195 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.0 | -121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -2.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -126 | -117 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.5.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amBall State +3should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ball State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 51 -107 | -157 | +135 |
All 18 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 51.5 -110 | -162 | +130 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 51 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 51.5 -110 | -162 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 51.5 -110 | -162 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 51 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | — | 43.5 +199 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -130 | 51.5 -102 | -162 | +134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 51 -107 | -157 | +135 |
| ReBet | -3 -114 | 51 -111 | -158 | +128 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 50.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.0 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Ball State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -191 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +3.0 | -108 | -117 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +130 | +120 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ball State Cardinals since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUCF +3should be UCF +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +133 | -154 |
All 19 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +135 | -155 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 48.5 -114 | +130 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 67.5 -1014 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 46.5 -130 | +135 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +133 | -154 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -111 | +130 | -160 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +161 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -159 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +137 |
| Market (17 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.0 | -106 | -114 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +130 | +123 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -130 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOklahoma +13.5should be Oklahoma +13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oklahoma is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 +105 47¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 +102 | 44.5 -101 | -591 | +428 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 +105 47¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -107 | 44.5 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -14 -107 | 44.5 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 44.5 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 44 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | — | 46.5 -141 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -575 | +425 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 44 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -580 | +420 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -615 | +425 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -700 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -103 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -646 | +449 |
| Pinnacle | -14 +102 | 44.5 -101 | -591 | +428 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 44.5 -109 | -676 | +460 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
BetAnything still has Georgia -13.0 while Pinnacle is at Georgia by 14.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -425 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -381 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +13.5 | +101 | -100 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +456 | +440 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB tomorrow 11:00amToledo -3should be Toledo -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Toledo is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -103 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 51.5 -107 | -146 | +126 |
All 18 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -103 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -152 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -103 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -1261 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 51.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 51.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +123 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -103 | 51.5 -107 | -146 | +126 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 51.5 -116 | -150 | +123 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Toledo, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 toward Toledo, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -165 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -181 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -3.0 | -103 | -103 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -145 | -144 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB tomorrow 11:00amUNLV -13.5should be UNLV -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 14 to UNLV by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 53 -105 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 52.5 -116 | +408 | -556 |
All 19 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 53 -105 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +430 | -625 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -115 | 53 -105 | +403 | -530 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +430 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +430 | -625 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +410 | -530 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -407 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -106 | 53 -103 | +403 | -530 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 52.5 -116 | +408 | -556 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | +400 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Akron). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels -13.5, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +397 here against +500 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.5 | +553 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +328 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +116 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +464 |
| Market (17 books) | +13.5 | +397 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +13.5 | -108 | -102 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +426 | +433 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Akron Zips since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.6 consensus; moneyline +397 here against +500 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB tomorrow 11:00amBaylor -10should be Baylor -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 10, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 8.5 to Baylor by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -102 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -107 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +296 |
All 20 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -102 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 55.5 -108 | -435 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -102 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 55.5 -108 | -435 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 55.5 -109 | -435 | +310 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -825 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -118 | 55.5 -108 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | -400 | +295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 55.5 -103 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -107 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +296 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 55.5 -111 | -370 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -348 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -379 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -392 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -293 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes +9.5 | -104 | +104 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes ML | +285 | +327 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh PanthersBucknell at PittsburghCFB tomorrow 11:00amBucknell +52should be Bucknell +51 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Pittsburgh by 52.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Pittsburgh by 49.5 to Pittsburgh by 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52.5 -130 | 63 -120 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -51.5 -152 | 62.5 -124 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52.5 -130 | 63 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -51.5 -152 | 62.5 -124 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51.5 -152 | 62.5 -124 | — | — |
| Courtside | -52.5 -120 | 63.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -52.5 -122 | 63.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -52.5 -110 | 62.5 -112 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -52.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -52.5 -130 | 63 -120 | — | — |
| ReBet | -52.5 -111 | 63.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -52.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -49.5, now -52.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Pittsburgh).
Kalshi thin: Under 62.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| Sagarin | -48.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Bucknell and Pittsburgh on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -52.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bucknell Bison +52.5 | +102 | -122 | +5.4% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.5.
The line is -52.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amIllinois +27should be Illinois +26 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -111 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27 -107 | 54 -106 | — | +1642 |
All 18 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -111 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -27.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1700 |
| BetAnything | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -27 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -111 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1550 |
| betPARX | -27.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1700 |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1600 |
| BetUS | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -103 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| Fanatics | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | — | +1600 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -107 | 53.5 -114 | — | +1550 |
| MyBookie.ag | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -27 -107 | 54 -106 | — | +1642 |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -27.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1650 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -925 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -909 |
| Market (17 books) | -27.0 | -3663 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.0 | -109 | -108 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1621 | +1946 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB tomorrow 11:00amLouisville -13.5should be Louisville -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 57 -115 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -563 | +412 |
All 20 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 57 -115 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -112 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -115 | 57.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 57 -115 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -112 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -113 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | -575 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 79.5 -1882 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -550 | +410 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 57 -114 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -549 | +390 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -563 | +412 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 57 -116 | -549 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -404 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -394 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -421 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -401 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +400 | +429 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB tomorrow 11:00amUnder 56.5should be 54.6 · getting 1.9 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -109 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -108 | 56 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -109 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -112 | 55.5 -125 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -109 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -504 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -106 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -108 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35 -114 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $490 available; Sam Houston State Bearkats ML, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.5 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -37.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2147 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -31.5 | -4599 |
| Market (17 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +34.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +4236 | +6297 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.5 consensus; total 56.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB tomorrow 11:45amKentucky -20.5should be Kentucky -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -108 | -1380 | +806 |
All 19 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +865 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +874 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -114 | 54 -113 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +775 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -375 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -1600 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 54.5 -108 | -1500 | +874 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1442 | +799 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -108 | -1380 | +806 |
| ReBet | -21 -111 | 54.5 -114 | -1299 | +730 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -741 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1903 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -692 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.5 | -1241 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +874 | +916 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan EaglesLindenwood at Eastern MichiganCFB tomorrow 12:00pmLindenwood +26should be Lindenwood +23 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Eastern Michigan by 26.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Eastern Michigan by 27.5 to Eastern Michigan by 26.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -25.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -25.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| Courtside | -25.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2246 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -26.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | — | +1300 |
| LowVig.ag | -25.5 -111 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| ReBet | -26.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
Marked: best for the Eastern Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood).
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -563 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Eastern Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -26.0 | -4496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +26.0 | -110 | -136 | +5.2% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +2000 | +1328 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-22 09:07.
The line is -26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB tomorrow 1:00pmNorthern Illinois +10.5should be Northern Illinois +10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 10. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia State by 9.5 to Georgia State by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -118 | 56 -114 | -419 | +324 |
All 18 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -107 | 56.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -107 | 56.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -107 | 56.5 -110 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 56 -115 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 +181 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -465 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -104 | 56 -114 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -402 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -118 | 56 -114 | -419 | +324 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -119 | 56.5 -111 | -441 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Georgia State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Georgia State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -119 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -375 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -192 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +10.5 | -112 | -112 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +350 | +325 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB tomorrow 1:00pmNotre Dame -28should be Notre Dame -27.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 27.5 to Notre Dame by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -113 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Pinnacle | +28 -111 | 57.5 -114 | +1735 | — |
All 20 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -113 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +1700 | — |
| BetAnything | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +27.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +1900 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +28 -113 | 58 -110 | +1602 | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +1700 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -112 | 58 -112 | +1600 | — |
| BetUS | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +28 -115 | 58 -110 | +1300 | — |
| Courtside | — | 78.5 -1347 | +1878 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -102 | 58.5 -105 | +1700 | — |
| Fanatics | +27.5 -105 | 58 -110 | +2000 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -104 | 58.5 -106 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +1200 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +28 -109 | 58 -108 | +1602 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | +1422 | — |
| Pinnacle | +28 -111 | 57.5 -114 | +1735 | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -119 | 58.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +1500 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2059 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1995 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +666 |
| Massey | +24.0 | +1548 |
| Market (18 books) | +28.0 | +3940 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +28.0 | -113 | -111 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +1650 | +2278 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State SeminolesCentral Arkansas at Florida StateCFB tomorrow 2:00pmCentral Arkansas +45.5should be Central Arkansas +44 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida State by 45.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Florida State by 43.5 to Florida State by 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -45.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| Sagarin | -38.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Central Arkansas and Florida State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Arkansas Bears +45.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.7.
The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB tomorrow 2:30pmBoise State -7should be Boise State -7 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +242 | -297 |
All 19 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +230 | -285 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 49.5 -115 | +237 | -290 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -1800 | +236 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | +230 | -285 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +235 | -295 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | +225 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -101 | 49.5 -114 | +237 | -290 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +244 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +242 | -297 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 49.5 -116 | +244 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +202 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +295 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -7.0 | -115 | -106 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -290 | -258 | -2.3% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Buffalo BullsRobert Morris at BuffaloCFB tomorrow 2:30pmRobert Morris +28.5should be Robert Morris +25 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Buffalo by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -28 -124 | 45.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -124 | 45.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -124 | 45.5 -103 | — | — |
| Courtside | -28.5 -108 | 45.5 -116 | — | +2246 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -118 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -114 | 45.5 -105 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -29.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | — | +2250 |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| ReBet | -29.5 -118 | 45.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | — | +3000 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -29.0, now -28.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $255 available; Under 45.5, only $15 available; Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -674 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Buffalo on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -28.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 | -110 | -143 | +6.4% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +2246 | +1831 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue DevilsWilliam & Mary at DukeCFB tomorrow 2:30pmWilliam & Mary +43.5should be William & Mary +42.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Duke by 43.5.
The spread
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -43.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| ReBet | -43.5 -109 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| FPI | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates William & Mary and Duke on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | William and Mary Tribe +43.5 | -105 | -105 | -0.0% |
The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmFlorida -3.5should be Florida -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida by 3 to Florida by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 59 -109 | -167 | +144 |
All 20 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -121 | 59 -112 | -177 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -112 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3 -121 | 59 -112 | -177 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 59 -113 | -177 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -798 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -102 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 58.5 -115 | -162 | +134 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -125 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 +100 | 59 -110 | -169 | +137 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 59 -109 | -167 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 58.5 -119 | -169 | +137 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -177 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +135 | +150 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering HerdGardner-Webb at MarshallCFB tomorrow 2:30pmGardner-Webb +23.5should be Gardner-Webb +20.5 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Marshall by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Marshall by 26.5 to Marshall by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -112 | 51.5 -106 | — | +1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23.5 -112 | 51.5 -106 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -112 | 51.5 -106 | — | +1200 |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -24.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -23.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| ReBet | -24.5 -106 | 51.5 -113 | -2273 | +980 |
| theScore Bet | -23.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -26.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Gardner-Webb).
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $14 available; Under 51.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Marshall on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -23.5 | -2676 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +23.5 | -110 | -133 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1600 | +980 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-22 09:07.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB tomorrow 2:30pmMichigan -5.5should be Michigan -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -109 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 38.5 -103 | -218 | +184 |
All 21 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -109 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -112 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -109 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +186 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -112 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -113 | 38.5 -112 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +185 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -105 | 38 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -110 | 47.5 -378 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -108 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -225 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -260 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -105 | 38.5 -108 | -220 | +186 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -226 | +181 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 38.5 -103 | -218 | +184 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -116 | 38.5 -114 | -255 | +200 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 38.5 -105 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -186 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -220 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 | -111 | -103 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +180 | +187 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUtah -8should be Utah -8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 8, the Nasty Number says Utah by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -115 | 48 -105 | +260 | -335 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 48 +100 | +272 | -339 |
All 18 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -115 | 48 -105 | +260 | -335 |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -113 | 48 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 48 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| BetMGM | +8 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -115 | 48 -105 | +270 | -335 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -113 | 48 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -113 | 48 -112 | +245 | -335 |
| BetUS | +8 -115 | 48 -105 | +272 | -335 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -1014 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -115 | 47.5 -114 | +265 | -330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +260 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 48 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 48 +100 | +272 | -339 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 47.5 -116 | +270 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 60°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Iowa State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +272 here against +310 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +307 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +332 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +161 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +195 |
| Market (17 books) | +8.0 | +272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -8.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -335 | -298 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: moneyline +272 here against +310 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNew Mexico -11.5should be New Mexico -12.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 11.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 12.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -113 | 48.5 -105 | +330 | -460 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +362 | -479 |
All 18 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -113 | 48.5 -105 | +330 | -460 |
| Bally Bet | +12 -113 | 48.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +350 | -460 |
| BetMGM | +11 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +360 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -113 | 48.5 -105 | +358 | -460 |
| betPARX | +12 -113 | 48.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +360 | -460 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -254 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -109 | 48.5 -103 | +358 | -460 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +370 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +362 | -479 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 48.5 -111 | +370 | -526 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State).
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +345 here against +442 consensus.
theScore Bet still has New Mexico State +11.5 while Pinnacle is at New Mexico by 10.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +772 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +551 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +378 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +376 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.5 | +345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -11.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -460 | -412 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus; moneyline +345 here against +442 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB tomorrow 3:00pmHouston -17should be Houston -17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 +100 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +18 -113 | 56.5 -107 | +634 | -989 |
All 20 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 +100 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetAnything | +17 -110 | 57 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17 +100 | 56.5 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -109 | +600 | -1115 |
| BetUS | +17 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| Bovada | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -1156 | +652 | -898 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -950 |
| Fanatics | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -950 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -104 | 56.5 -110 | +740 | -1250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +600 | -950 |
| LowVig.ag | +17 +104 | 56.5 -106 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +624 | -1009 |
| Pinnacle | +18 -113 | 56.5 -107 | +634 | -989 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -116 | 56.5 -114 | +580 | -952 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +700 | -1200 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +17.5, only $100 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $179 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +17.0 here against +17.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.5 | +589 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +591 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +570 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +534 |
| Market (18 books) | +17.0 | +872 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars -17.0 | -120 | -105 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | -1000 | -679 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread +17.0 here against +17.7 consensus.
The line is +17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB tomorrow 3:15pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +9 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -113 | 55 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -110 | 55 -113 | -363 | +287 |
All 19 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -113 | 55 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +285 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -113 | 55 -110 | -360 | +289 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 55.5 -109 | -385 | +280 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -466 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -355 | +280 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -365 | +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -109 | 55 -108 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -110 | 55 -113 | -363 | +287 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 55.5 -109 | -380 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Auburn).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -172 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -307 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -156 |
| Market (17 books) | -9.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -107 | -102 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +306 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 4.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB tomorrow 4:00pmSouth Florida -17.5should be South Florida -19 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -113 | 48.5 -115 | +642 | -1005 |
All 19 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetAnything | +17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetUS | +17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +18 -110 | 49 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -1295 | +679 | -943 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | +650 | -1000 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +640 | -1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +700 | -1100 |
| LowVig.ag | +17.5 -104 | 49 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +610 | -1000 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -113 | 48.5 -115 | +642 | -1005 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -116 | 49.5 -111 | +650 | -1099 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +600 | -1000 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +18.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $218 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1187 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1194 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +528 |
| Massey | +18.0 | +740 |
| Market (17 books) | +17.5 | +897 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -17.5 | -112 | -116 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -1000 | -833 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 4.8.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.8 consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB tomorrow 4:00pmNebraska -5.5should be Nebraska -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 6.5 to Nebraska by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -102 | 49 -108 | +188 | -223 |
All 18 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Bally Bet | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +6 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 46.5 +119 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -112 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 48.5 -114 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 49 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -102 | 49 -108 | +188 | -223 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -114 | 48.5 -119 | +198 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Courtside has the total at 46.5 while Pinnacle is at 49. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +338 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +282 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +131 |
| Market (17 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -6.0 | -108 | -103 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -225 | -209 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB tomorrow 5:00pmVirginia -19.5should be Virginia -20 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -114 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +105 47¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20 -105 | 52.5 -107 | -1284 | +766 |
All 18 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -114 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +105 47¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -114 | 52 -105 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -19.5 -110 | 52 -105 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -253 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1450 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +800 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52 -103 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1699 | +825 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -105 | 52.5 -107 | -1284 | +766 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -109 | 52.5 -114 | -1205 | +690 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -555 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1204 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1304 |
| Market (16 books) | -19.5 | -1145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -19.5 | -114 | -105 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -1200 | -902 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.8 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas StateCFB tomorrow 5:00pmIncarnate Word +31should be Incarnate Word +26.5 · getting 4.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 31.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 93°F.
Across the books: opened -30.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Texas State).
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -878 |
| Massey | rates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -31.0 | -4120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals +31.0 | -110 | -167 | +10.1% |
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals ML | +1800 | +2031 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.5.
The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB tomorrow 5:30pmUnder 53.5should be 50.8 · getting 2.7 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -115 | 53 -119 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -120 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -42 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1014 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -114 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -41.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41.5 -111 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -115 | 53 -119 | — | — |
| ReBet | -42.5 -103 | 53.5 -119 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -40.5 | — |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -37.0 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +41.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmAlabama -12.5should be Alabama -12.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 54 -109 | -523 | +388 |
All 21 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 54 -108 | -590 | +400 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -12 -118 | 54.5 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 54 -108 | -590 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 54 -109 | -625 | +400 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -325 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -530 | +390 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -125 | -545 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 54 -108 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 54 -109 | -523 | +388 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 54.5 -111 | -526 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Alabama).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -404 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -506 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +400 | +416 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 4.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmArkansas State -6.5should be Arkansas State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 4 to Arkansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -138 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -225 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +6.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +200 | +207 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western KentuckyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmMercyhurst +40.5should be Mercyhurst +36 · getting 4.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 40.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 37.5 to Western Kentucky by 40.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41 -121 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41 -121 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41 -121 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -40.5 -108 | 57.5 +100 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -110 | 57.5 -102 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40.5 -111 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -40.5 -114 | 58.5 -112 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -39.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Western Kentucky).
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $420 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +40.5 | -110 | -156 | +8.5% |
| Moneyline | Mercyhurst Lakers ML | +4086 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.1.
The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB tomorrow 6:00pmSouthern Miss +18should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -19 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -1166 | +715 |
All 19 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| BetMGM | -18 -120 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 53 -105 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -1501 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +800 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1099 | +640 |
| Pinnacle | -19 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -1166 | +715 |
| ReBet | -18.5 -116 | 52.5 -114 | -1099 | +640 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -566 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -546 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -918 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -887 |
| Market (17 books) | -18.0 | -1020 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5 | -108 | -112 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +800 | +697 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.7 consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNC State -14should be NC State -14 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 14, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 55 -109 | -606 | +437 |
All 18 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 55 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 55.5 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 55 -115 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 55 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 55 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -996 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 55.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 55 -114 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 55 -109 | -606 | +437 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 55.5 -109 | -649 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward NC State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -443 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -950 |
| Massey | -16.0 | -575 |
| Market (17 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +14.0 | -112 | -103 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +470 | +469 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmArizona -10should be Arizona -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 +100 | 48 -104 | +305 | -415 |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +346 | -454 |
All 18 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 +100 | 48 -104 | +305 | -415 |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -420 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -112 | 48.5 -102 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 +100 | 48 -104 | +327 | -415 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -420 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -113 | 47.5 -114 | +310 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10 +100 | 48 -105 | +330 | -415 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +340 | -460 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1138 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | +320 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 +104 | 48 -102 | +327 | -415 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +319 | -440 |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +346 | -454 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | +340 | -469 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward Washington State).
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +435 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +370 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +231 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +189 |
| Market (17 books) | +10.0 | +319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -10.0 | -120 | -104 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -415 | -353 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -116 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus; moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North TexasCFB tomorrow 6:30pmHouston Christian +39should be Houston Christian +36 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
All 12 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38.5 -129 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38.5 -129 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -129 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -39.5 -113 | 59.5 -118 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -39.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -106 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| Sagarin | -30.0 | -3415 |
| Massey | rates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -39.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Baptist Huskies +39.5 | -105 | -145 | +7.9% |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB tomorrow 6:45pmMississippi State -6should be Mississippi State -5.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 6, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Mississippi State by 3.5 to Mississippi State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 +100 | 58 -118 | -228 | +191 |
All 20 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +188 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -109 | 58.5 -112 | -235 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -586 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -230 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -118 | 58.5 -118 | -225 | +184 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -120 | -235 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -240 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -106 | 58.5 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -238 | +188 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 +100 | 58 -118 | -228 | +191 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 4.8 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +103 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -198 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +6.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +190 | +195 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB tomorrow 7:00pmFlorida Atlantic -11should be Florida Atlantic -11.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +12.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | — | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -106 | 58 -113 | +383 | -514 |
All 18 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +12.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | — | -490 82¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +360 | -530 |
| BetAnything | +12 -110 | 58 -110 | +360 | -470 |
| BetMGM | +12 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +360 | -530 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +360 | -530 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +12.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +375 | -525 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -798 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +370 | -485 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -102 | 57.5 -115 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11 -101 | 58 -114 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -106 | 58 -113 | +383 | -514 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward UL Monroe).
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +451 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +781 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +340 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +262 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +258 |
| Market (16 books) | +11.0 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida Atlantic Owls -11.0 | -115 | -102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida Atlantic Owls ML | -450 | -389 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.1 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +451 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB tomorrow 8:00pmMissouri State +34.5should be Missouri State +33.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -105 | 60 -106 | — | — |
All 18 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -110 | 60 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -118 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -110 | 60 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 60 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -1085 | — | +2889 |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2250 |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -104 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +1650 |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -105 | 60 -106 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -4740 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2521 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -27.5 | -2300 |
| Market (17 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -112 | -113 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +2889 | +6076 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB tomorrow 8:00pmOregon State -10.5should be Oregon State -11.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -105 | 55.5 -116 | +359 | -474 |
All 17 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11 -108 | 55.5 -120 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 56 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | — | 50.5 +169 | +350 | -426 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | +340 | -440 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -102 | 56.5 -106 | +390 | -530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -101 | 56 -103 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -105 | 55.5 -116 | +359 | -474 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +340 | -450 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +424 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +543 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +472 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +300 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +418 |
| Market (16 books) | +10.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -10.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -450 | -399 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +424 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB tomorrow 10:00pmWashington -10should be Washington -9.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 10, the Nasty Number says Washington by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Washington by 9.5 to Washington by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 46 -105 | -384 | +301 |
All 19 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -112 | 45.5 -113 | -455 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -324 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 45.5 -112 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -125 | 45.5 -120 | -405 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 46 -103 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -420 | +309 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 46 -105 | -384 | +301 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 45.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 56°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -308 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -322 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +313 | +313 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio BobcatsStonehill at OhioCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -33 -121 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -33 -121 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -121 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| Courtside | -33.5 -113 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -32.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -32.5 -111 | 52.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -33.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 4.4 toward Stonehill).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $60 available; Under 53.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Ohio on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.5.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina PiratesNorth Carolina Central at East CarolinaCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
All 10 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -33.5 -137 | 54.5 -122 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -33.5 -137 | 54.5 -122 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -137 | 54.5 -122 | — | — |
| Courtside | -35.5 -103 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 77°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -35.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward East Carolina).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Massey | rates North Carolina Central and East Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.3.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida InternationalCFB tomorrow 5:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -115 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -125 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -115 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -125 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -125 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -113 | 52.5 -120 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -115 | 52.5 -122 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -115 | 53.5 -112 | — | +2200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -115 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -116 | 52.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Florida International).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Massey | rates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.8.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Sep 27
14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at JaguarsNew England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmPatriots +3should be Patriots +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -121 | 45.5 -116 | -154 | +136 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 46 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 45.5 -117 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -1347 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -115 | -154 | +130 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 45.5 -115 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +101 | 46 -109 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -121 | 45.5 -116 | -154 | +136 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -120 | -154 | +131 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots +2.5, only $381 available; Over 46.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Brenden Schooler (S, Patriots).
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3.0 | -116 | -125 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +130 | +120 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -108 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmSteelers +3.5should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5▼A Little Nasty · SteelersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Steelers. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Steelers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 43 +103 | +162 | -186 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -109 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -697 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 43 +103 | +162 | -186 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 42.5 +104 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -186 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Steelers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Steelers.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals) and 1 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +160 | +152 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was -5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 43 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 -102 | -135 | +120 |
All 25 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 38 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 38 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 38 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 38.5 -106 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -1963 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 38.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 -106 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 38.5 -110 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 38 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -142 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 -102 | -135 | +120 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 38.5 +108 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 38.5 -110 | -139 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 38.5 +100 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 63°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.5 consensus.
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -197 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -138 | -142 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.5 consensus.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmBills -7.5should be Bills -7.5 at TOM · was -7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
All 24 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +274 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +275 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50 -112 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -103 | -331 | +277 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -405 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +105 | 50 -107 | -340 | +274 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +104 | 49.5 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 49.5 -120 | -319 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills -7.5 · +100 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Bills, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, Chargers).
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -348 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -217 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -362 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | +100 | -102 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -340 | -323 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-20 18:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm49ers -9should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 48.5 +102 | -374 | +304 |
All 25 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -105 | 48 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -103 | 48.5 -105 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 48 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -8 -115 | 48 -112 | -410 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1535 | -426 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -440 | +340 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -475 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 +101 | 48 -107 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 48.5 +102 | -374 | +304 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 | -355 | +335 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -410 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -115 | 48.5 +100 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Nick Bosa (DE, 49ers), C.J. West (DT, 49ers), James Thompson Jr. (DT, 49ers).
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -649 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -497 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -356 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.0 | -103 | -104 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -400 | -382 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Lions's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 48 -107 | -294 | +246 |
All 25 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -107 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -7 -107 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7 -107 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -311 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -345 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -295 | +232 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 48 -107 | -294 | +246 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 +100 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -290 | +238 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Mason Taylor (TE, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets), Kiko Mauigoa (LB, Jets).
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -325 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -351 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -337 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -115 | -115 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -300 | -296 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmTexans -1.5should be Texans -1.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -114 | +111 | -124 |
All 24 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -110 | 43 -107 | +112 | -136 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 43 -110 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +104 | -124 |
| betPARX | +2 -110 | 43 -107 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2 -110 | 43 -107 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | +110 | -129 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -852 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 43 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -118 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 -113 | +104 | -124 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -129 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -114 | +111 | -124 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 -104 | +113 | -117 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 | +107 | -126 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Colts, now Not Nasty. The line went from +3.0 to +1.5.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Colts).
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans -1.5, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (21 books) | +1.5 | +109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +110 | +110 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -115 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.9 consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmSaints -3should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 -102 | -176 | +155 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -112 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -6611 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3 -122 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -174 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +107 | 43.5 -113 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -167 | +136 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 -102 | -176 | +155 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | — | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -178 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders +3.5, only $26 available; Under 43.5, only $376 available; New Orleans Saints ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints).
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -158 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -177 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -174 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -115 | -115 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -177 | -168 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmPanthers -2.5should be Panthers -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 42 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 42 -110 | +129 | -146 |
All 24 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 42 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | +125 | -152 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -104 | 42 -115 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -104 | 42.5 -109 | +125 | -152 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -102 | 42.5 -106 | +127 | -150 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -2122 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 42.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 42 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 42 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 42 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +101 | 42 -113 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 42 -110 | +129 | -146 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +100 | 41.5 -108 | +127 | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +123 | -145 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Jonathon Brooks (RB, Panthers).
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +137 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +135 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +147 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (21 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers -2.5 | -116 | -103 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | -145 | -129 | -2.9% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +137 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmChiefs -10.5should be Chiefs -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -119 | 46 +101 | +466 | -623 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11 -109 | 46 -109 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +476 | -650 |
| betPARX | +11 -109 | 46 -109 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 46 -109 | +500 | -715 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +530 | -750 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -109 | 45.5 -113 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -263 | +439 | -553 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +425 | -575 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -114 | +520 | -720 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +525 | -890 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11 -110 | 46 -110 | +475 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +11 -110 | 46 -110 | +475 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +11 -110 | 46 -110 | +475 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | +476 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -649 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -119 | 46 +101 | +466 | -623 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -104 | 45.5 | +525 | -567 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +470 | -625 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.1 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +374 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +429 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +384 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +193 |
| Market (22 books) | +10.5 | +586 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -575 | -433 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.1 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmSeahawks -7.5should be Seahawks -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 40 -115 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 40.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -104 | 40.5 -106 | +294 | -359 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 40 -115 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 40.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 40.5 -112 | +280 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 40 -115 | +290 | -365 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -108 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 40 -115 | +292 | -365 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 40.5 -112 | +280 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 40.5 -112 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +285 | -370 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -115 | 40.5 -106 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -586 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 40.5 -102 | +280 | -355 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 40.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +295 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -105 | 40 -113 | +292 | -365 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +310 | -420 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -104 | 40.5 -106 | +294 | -359 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 39.5 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -109 | +320 | -410 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 64°F, 43% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 5.2 toward Seahawks). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 39.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks).
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +338 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +266 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +189 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +351 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -365 | -321 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.5 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +338 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -118 | 43 +103 | +104 | -117 |
All 25 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +105 | -124 |
| Courtside | — | 42.5 -108 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -107 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +101 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -118 | 43 +103 | +104 | -117 |
| Polymarket | -0.5 +104 | 42.5 +100 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Vikings).
Also out: Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +120 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +104 | +108 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 53 -109 | +161 | -185 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 +105 | 53 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 53 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 53 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 53 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 53 -113 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -2584 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 53 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -114 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 53.5 -107 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 +100 | 53 -110 | +148 | -182 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 53 -109 | +161 | -185 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 53.5 +100 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 52.5 -120 | +151 | -179 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys), P.J. Locke (S, Cowboys) and 2 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +119 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +188 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -123 | -104 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -175 | -153 | -3.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmRams -2.5should be Rams -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | +116 | -136 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 44 -106 | +118 | -133 |
All 25 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | +116 | -136 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | +116 | -136 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | +112 | -137 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -115 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 43.5 -120 | +117 | -137 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 31.5 +472 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 44 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 44 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 44 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -109 | +116 | -136 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +113 | -138 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 44 -106 | +118 | -133 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 +104 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +115 | -136 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 +100 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $12 available; Under 44.5, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos).
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +144 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -107 | -101 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +116 | +124 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 28
1 game1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Bears, Bears +4.5.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmBears +4.5should be Bears +3.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Bears +4.5: all 4 ratings our side, 4.7% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -102 | 41.5 -102 | +197 | -223 |
All 25 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -112 | 41 -112 | +180 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +5 -112 | 41 -112 | +180 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +5 -112 | 41 -112 | +180 | -225 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +5 -115 | 41.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 41 -114 | +189 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -4633 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | +194 | -235 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +190 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -105 | 41 -107 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +180 | -236 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -102 | 41.5 -102 | +197 | -223 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 +100 | — | +203 | -213 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +189 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Bears, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears +4.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 64°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Damn Near Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Over 41.5, only $223 available; Under 41.5, only $391 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears +4.5 | +100 | -121 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +198 | +163 | +4.5% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Thu Oct 1
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +3should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 37.5 -113 | +119 | -139 |
| Courtside | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 37.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +116 | -143 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F, 27% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $12 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $269 available; Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $176 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +151 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +121 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -125 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +124 | +121 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 38.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 2
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +5.5should be Pittsburgh +5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Pittsburgh, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh +5.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $8 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +115 |
| Market (2 books) | -6.0 | -209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +5.5 | +100 | -105 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +186 | +183 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -7should be Penn State -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +309 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +224 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | +7.0 | +229 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +7.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +225 | +226 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 3
6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -3.5should be Alabama -4 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsA Little Nasty · Alabama, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Alabama -3.5 · -105 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $74 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +119 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +309 |
| Market (2 books) | +3.5 | +158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 58.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -171 | -173 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amClemson +17.5should be Clemson +16.5 · getting 1 pt · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $3 available; Miami Hurricanes ML, only $134 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +14.0 | +474 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +561 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +291 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +323 |
| Market (2 books) | +17.5 | +867 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 47.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +17.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +638 | +593 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amVanderbilt +23.5should be Vanderbilt +22.5 · getting 1 pt · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -976 |
| FPI | -23.0 | -1354 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -756 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -729 |
| Market (1 books) | -23.5 | -2616 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +23.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +1400 | +1289 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amLouisville -7.5should be Louisville -7 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +205 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +320 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (1 books) | +7.5 | +280 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 60.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +7.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +245 | +248 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -7.5should be Michigan -7.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $164 available; Michigan Wolverines ML, only $287 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +243 |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +312 |
| Market (2 books) | +7.5 | +267 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -7.5 | +100 | -102 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -275 | -281 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -20.5should be Notre Dame -20.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $28 available; Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $62 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +894 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +869 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +560 |
| Massey | +21.5 | +1106 |
| Market (1 books) | +20.5 | +1365 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +20.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +900 | +918 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1844%-5.19 units32 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 15. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-18 | 43.8% | -5.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 138 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-25 11:56.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 72 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.84 | 57 |
| FPI | 9.91 | 112 |
| SP+ | 10.05 | 112 |
| The market | 10.23 | 163 |
| Sagarin | 11.75 | 153 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 58 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 57 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 58 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 72 |
The line archive, 163 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 76 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.48 points better than the close on average over 153 games. The close misses the final by 10.13, the open by 10.35, our raw ratings number by 12.34, Pinnacle's close by 10.07. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.38, MyBookie.ag 9.87, Kalshi 10.00.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 12.00 | 33 |
| nfelo | 12.34 | 33 |
| Sagarin | 12.45 | 33 |
| FPI | 13.79 | 18 |
| Massey | 13.93 | 16 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 16 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 16 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 16 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 16 |
The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 114 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 63 | 14.6 | 19-27 (41%) | 13-14 (48%) |
| Massey | 67 | 13.6 | 14-17 (45%) | 5-11 (31%) |
| The blend | 68 | 13.9 | 15-23 (39%) | 9-11 (45%) |
NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 19 | 9.9 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 17 | 9.9 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 19 | 8.9 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 9 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 94 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 9 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.
What's changed since Wed 23 Sep, 10:25pm
- NewColorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners is now a pick: Colorado State Rams +13.5 at +108.
- NewTexas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers is now a pick: Texas A&M Aggies +9.0 at -110.
- MovedUMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets is now Sacramento State Hornets +5.0, was Sacramento State Hornets +4.0.
- NewPhiladelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears is now a pick: Chicago Bears +4.5 at +100.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 5.0Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
- → 2.5Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Pantherstoward Pittsburgh Pantherswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 22%, give or take 26% (one standard error, 88 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 73 | 9.17 |
| SP+ | 112 | 10.05 |
| FPI | 130 | 10.44 |
| The market | 196 | 10.53 |
| Sagarin | 186 | 11.88 |
| nfelo | 33 | 12.34 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 87-94 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 836666 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.21 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 129 | 1.74 |
| FanDuel | 323 | 1.46 |
| DraftKings | 297 | 1.46 |
| LowVig.ag | 278 | 1.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 286 | 1.38 |
| BetRivers | 314 | 1.35 |
| MyBookie.ag | 217 | 1.32 |
| ReBet | 101 | 1.29 |
| Caesars | 237 | 1.21 |
| BetMGM | 270 | 1.17 |
| BetUS | 218 | 1.16 |
| Fanatics | 253 | 1.12 |
| betPARX | 106 | 1.11 |
| Bally Bet | 106 | 1.11 |
| Bovada | 273 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 258 | 1.07 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 105 | 1.01 |
| Pinnacle | 272 | 1.00 |
| Courtside | 60 | 0.92 |
| theScore Bet | 103 | 0.91 |
| BetAnything | 93 | 0.76 |
| Fliff | 44 | 0.75 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.58 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.52 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 0.43 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 5 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago