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Buck Nasty

Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Mon 2:17 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now
College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pmFPISun 8:30amSagarinSun 10:18amMasseyMon 8:03amAll 4 in the Sauce. 172 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloSun 6:02amFPISun 6:02amSagarinMon 2:55pmMasseyMon 8:03amAll 4 in the Sauce. 30 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 18 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

17 more, weaker reads
Kansas at Arizona StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 52should be 52.9 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Florida International at Florida AtlanticFlorida International +6.5should be Florida International +5.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›1.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Miami (OH) at CincinnatiCincinnati -14.5should be Cincinnati -15 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›0.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Temple at ToledoTemple +5.5should be Temple +5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:00pm Buck's case ›0.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Syracuse at PittsburghSyracuse +10.5should be Syracuse +10.5A Little Nasty strengthThu 6:30pm Buck's case ›0.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Western Michigan at RiceRice +9.5should be Rice +9 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›0.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Ohio at South AlabamaOhio +4.5should be Ohio +4.5 · was +4A Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›0.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Mississippi State at South CarolinaMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 59.5should be 58.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Purdue at UCLAOver 53should be 53.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Wyoming at Central MichiganMoved our way · 1.5 ptsUnder 40should be 39 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 12:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.James Madison at San Diego StateOver 46.5should be 47.4 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 9:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Georgia Southern at Jacksonville StateOver 52.5should be 53.3 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.SMU at LouisvilleUnder 59.5should be 58.8 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Stanford at DukeOver 51should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Fresno State at San José StateUnder 50.5should be 49.8 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.North Carolina at ClemsonUnder 44.5should be 44 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Coastal Carolina at DelawareOver 57.5should be 57.9 · getting 0.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 10:30am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Monday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Virginia at West Virginia West Virginia +10 the strongest at 6.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is UAB at Louisiana, Over 56.5, down 2 since the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Virginia at West Virginia, West Virginia +10. Bet it like you'd lose it, because you might.

Buck

Today

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs
NFL 7:15pm
Under 43
should be 41.9 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 1.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 3.5
FPI
Chiefs by 3
Sagarin
Chiefs by 3
Massey
Chiefs by 2
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 2opened Chiefs by 2.5now Chiefs by 1.5WedThuFriSatSunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 2.5 to Chiefs by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
40.42.6 pts under the market
Weather
-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off
Nasty Number
39.43.6 pts under the market
Under 43 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.4opened 43.5now 43WedThuFriSatSunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-1.5 -11543 -110-135+115
Kalshi-2.5 -103 49¢43.5 +101 48¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Pinnacle-2 -10443 -107-127+115
All 14 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-1.5 -11543 -110-135+115
Kalshi-2.5 -103 49¢43.5 +101 48¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
BetMGM-2 -11043.5 -108-135+110
BetOnline.ag-2 -11043.5 -105-135+115
BetRivers-2 -11243 -114-132+108
BetUS-1 -12043.5 -110-130+110
Bovada-2 -11043 -110-130+110
Caesars-2 -11043.5 -102-130+111
DraftKings-2.5 -10843.5 -108-130+110
Fanatics-2 -11043 -110-130+110
FanDuel-2.5 -10543.5 -108-134+114
LowVig.ag-2 -10443.5 -102-132+112
MyBookie.ag-2 -11043.5 -110-132+108
Pinnacle-2 -10443 -107-127+115

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -1.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -135 at TOM
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 40. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Broncos).

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

BetUS still has Chiefs -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 2.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-150
FPI-3.0-146
Sagarin-3.0-141
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-1.5-129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.039.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -1.5-115-113-0.4%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-135-127-1.6%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Denver Broncos since 09-07 15:54.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 17

2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse, Syracuse at Pittsburgh
GameThe call
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at Pittsburgh
CFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm
Syracuse +10.5
should be Syracuse +10.5
Sniff of Nasty · SyracuseBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Syracuse. Market says Pittsburgh by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 10.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Pittsburgh →
Market
Pittsburgh by 10.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI
Pittsburgh by 12.52.1 pts against us
Sagarin
Pittsburgh by 9.51.2 pts our side
Massey
Pittsburgh by 37.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Pittsburgh by 10.50.2 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Syracuse. FPI at Pittsburgh by 12.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Pittsburgh by 10.5opened Pittsburgh by 10.5now Pittsburgh by 10.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.31.8 pts over the market
Massey
52.30.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.062% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.80.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 53.5now 51.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLSyracuse ML
TOM-10.5 -11251.5 -110-420+310
Kalshi-10.5 -107 50¢51.5 +101 48¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-11 -10351 -111-438+325
All 13 books
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLSyracuse ML
TOM-10.5 -11251.5 -110-420+310
Kalshi-10.5 -107 50¢51.5 +101 48¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-10.5 -11051.5 -105-400+320
BetOnline.ag-10.5 -11251.5 -110-420+330
BetRivers-10.5 -10951 -114-480+325
BetUS-10.5 -11051.5 -110-420+330
Bovada-10.5 -11051 -110-435+325
Caesars-10.5 -11351.5 -106-420+325
DraftKings-10.5 -11251.5 -102-440+340
FanDuel-10.5 -11051.5 -110-400+310
LowVig.ag-10.5 -10851.5 -108-420+330
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11051.5 -110-481+330
Pinnacle-11 -10351 -111-438+325

Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse +10.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Syracuse to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Syracuse +10.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPittsburgh by 10.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI-12.5-401
Sagarin-9.5-273
Massey-3.0-140
Market (11 books)-10.5-402
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSyracuse Orange +10.5-108-110+0.5%
MoneylineSyracuse Orange ML+310+304priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 8.3.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills
NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm
Over 53.5
should be 54.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 4.5TOM, -103
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey
Bills by 2.52.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bills by 40.5 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Lions. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 4opened Bills by 4.5now Bills by 4.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
56.93.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.93.4 pts over the market
Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.9opened 53.5now 53.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
TOM-4.5 -10353.5 -110-212+172
Kalshi-4.553.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+181 34¢
Pinnacle-4 -11054 +102-204+177
All 14 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
TOM-4.5 -10353.5 -110-212+172
Kalshi-4.553.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+181 34¢
BetMGM-4 -11053.5 -110-210+175
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -10353.5 -110-212+181
BetRivers-4 -11353 -112-205+165
BetUS-4.5 -10553.5 -110-210+180
Bovada-4 -11553.5 -110-210+175
Caesars-4.5 -10653.5 -112-209+173
DraftKings-4.5 -10853.5 -110-192+160
Fanatics-4.5 -10553.5 -110-215+175
FanDuel-4.5 -10553.5 -115-220+184
LowVig.ag-4.5 +10053.5 -107-212+181
MyBookie.ag-4 -11053.5 -110-204+158
Pinnacle-4 -11054 +102-204+177

Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions +4.5 · -117 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Lions to win · +172 at TOM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 57. That's 3.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -4.5, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.1 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -203 here against -185 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPIhasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey-2.5-132
Market (12 books)-4.5-203
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.556.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML+172+164+1.2%
SpreadDetroit Lions +4.5-117-118+0.1%
TotalOver 53.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-10 10:21; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.1 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus; moneyline -203 here against -185 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 18

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake Forest
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Miami by 21, our data says Miami by 19.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 21.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Miami by 21
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPI
Miami by 19.5
Sagarin
Miami by 15.5
Massey
Wake Forest by 1.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 19.51.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 19.5opened Miami by 21now Miami by 21SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
43.611.9 pts under the market
Massey
56.20.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.95.7 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 55.5now 55.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLMiami ML
Kalshi+20.5+1074 -1429 93¢
Pinnacle+21 -11055.5 -104+889-1768
All 12 books
Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLMiami ML
Kalshi+20.5+1074 -1429 93¢
BetMGM+21 -11555.5 -108+1000-1600
BetOnline.ag+21 -11056 -108+1011-1900
BetRivers+21.5 -11255.5 -110+1150
BetUS+21 -11056 -110+1025-1900
Bovada+21 -11055 -110+900-1900
Caesars+21 -10955.5 -110+1000-2000
DraftKings+21 -11255.5 -115+1000-1800
FanDuel+20.5 -10255.5 -105+920-1800
LowVig.ag+21 -10656 -106+1011-1900
MyBookie.ag+21 -11055.5 -110+788-1683
Pinnacle+21 -11055.5 -104+889-1768

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +21.0 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Wake Forest to win · +1000
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +21.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5, only $33 available; Over 55.5, only $223 available; Under 55.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPI+19.5+955
Sagarin+15.5+554
Massey-1.5-115
Market (11 books)+21.0+972
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.549.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons +21.0-110+109-4.5%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML+1000+936priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 3.0.

The line is +21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas Tech
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 7:00pm
No bet
market says Texas Tech by 7.5, our data says Texas Tech by 8
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →
Market
Texas Tech by 7.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
FPI
Texas Tech by 9
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 9.5
Massey
Texas Tech by 2.5
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 80.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 8opened Texas Tech by 8.5now Texas Tech by 7SunMon

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 8.5 to Texas Tech by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
53.90.8 pts over the market
Massey
54.81.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.31.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.3opened 53now 53SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLHouston ML
Kalshi-7.553.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
Pinnacle-7 -11753 -117-310+244
All 12 books
Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLHouston ML
Kalshi-7.553.5 -112 51¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
BetMGM-7.5 -11053.5 -110-300+250
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11053 -110-300+245
BetRivers-7.5 -11353 -113-335+250
BetUS-7.5 -11053 -110-300+250
Bovada-7.5 -10553.5 -110-300+250
Caesars-7.5 -11353.5 -109-325+255
DraftKings-7.5 -11253.5 -112-305+245
FanDuel-8.5 -10653.5 -110-335+265
LowVig.ag-7.5 -10653 -108-300+245
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11053.5 -110-340+248
Pinnacle-7 -11753 -117-310+244

Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -7.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Texas Tech to win · -302
We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65.
Not Nasty
the Over 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 32% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 6.2 toward Houston). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5, only $140 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
FPI-9.0-266
Sagarin-9.5-277
Massey-2.5-133
Market (11 books)-7.5-263
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.054.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Tech Red Raiders -7.5-110+114-5.6%
MoneylineTexas Tech Red Raiders ML-302-231-5.4%
TotalOver 53.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.2 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 1.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Portland State Vikings at Oregon DucksPortland State at Oregon
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 9:30pm
No bet
market says Oregon by 58.5, our data says Oregon by 56.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 58.5.

The spread

← more Portland State than the bookmore Oregon →
Market
Oregon by 58.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon's last game
Sagarin
Oregon by 51.5
Nasty Number
Oregon by 56.52.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 56.5opened Oregon by 58.5now Oregon by 58.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Portland State +58.5 · -110
Covers 65 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 56.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Portland State
Sagarin-51.5
Masseyrates Portland State and Oregon on different scales
Market (1 books)-58.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points65.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPortland State Vikings +58.5-110-187+12.8%

The line is -58.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 19

70 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · West Virginia, Virginia at West Virginia
GameThe call
Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West Virginia
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
West Virginia +10
should be West Virginia +7.5 · getting 2.5 pts · was +8.5
Sniff of Nasty · West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, West Virginia. Market says Virginia by 10, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 7.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 53.5 as well.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 10TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPI
Virginia by 90.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Virginia by 2.57.6 pts our side
Massey
West Virginia by 1.511.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia by 7.52.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 7.5opened Virginia by 9now Virginia by 10SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM, Under -112
The Four
SP+ pace
46.47.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.54 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.5opened 54.5now 53.5SunMon

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLVirginia ML
TOM+10 -10553.5 -108+285-375
Kalshi+8.553.5 -116 52¢+296 24¢
Pinnacle+10 -11053.5 -107+301-399
All 13 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLVirginia ML
TOM+10 -10553.5 -108+285-375
Kalshi+8.553.5 -116 52¢+296 24¢
BetMGM+10 -11054.5 -105+280-350
BetOnline.ag+10 -10553.5 -108+299-375
BetRivers+10 -11254.5 -110+295-420
BetUS+10 -10553 -110+300-375
Bovada+10 -11053.5 -105+300-400
Caesars+10 -10953.5 -108+295-380
DraftKings+10 -10853.5 -112+310-395
FanDuel+9.5 -10253.5 -115+285-365
LowVig.ag+10 -10153.5 -106+299-375
MyBookie.ag+10 -11054.5 -110+280-400
Pinnacle+10 -11053.5 -107+301-399

Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia +10.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
West Virginia to win · +285 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: West Virginia loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. That's 4.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers +8.5, only $40 available; Under 53.5, only $345 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPI+9.0+271
Sagarin+2.5+129
Massey-1.5-119
Market (11 books)+10.0+298
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.549.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers +10.0-105-138+6.8%
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML+285+229+4.4%
TotalUnder 53.5-112-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.

TOM matches the consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsMarshall at Missouri State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:30pm
Over 52
should be 53.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 53
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Missouri State too: market says Marshall by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 2.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore Missouri State →
Market
Marshall by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Marshall and Missouri State's last game
FPI
Missouri State by 47.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Marshall by 12.7 pts our side
Massey
Missouri State by 25.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Marshall by 2.51.1 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Missouri State. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Marshall by 2.5opened Marshall by 3now Marshall by 3.5SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Missouri State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
61.49.4 pts over the market
Massey
575 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.27.2 pts over the market
Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.2opened 52.5now 52SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLMarshall ML
TOM+3.5 -11052 -110+135-165
Pinnacle+3.5 -11352 -109+143-170
All 11 books
Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLMarshall ML
TOM+3.5 -11052 -110+135-165
BetMGM+3.5 -11251.5 -110+140-175
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11052 -110+145-165
BetRivers+4 -11251.5 -109+138-175
BetUS+3.5 -11052 -110+142-165
Bovada+3.5 -11552 -110+145-170
DraftKings+3.5 -11551.5 -112+140-166
FanDuel+3.5 -11451.5 -110+138-166
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10652 -108+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11051.5 -110+145-187
Pinnacle+3.5 -11352 -109+143-170

Marked: best for Missouri State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Missouri State to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 7.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 90°F.

Full detail
We settle onMarshall by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Marshall and Missouri State's last game
FPI-4.0-156
Sagarin+1.0+109
Massey-2.0-121
Market (10 books)+3.5+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.059.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri State Bears +3.5-110-124+2.9%
MoneylineMissouri State Bears ML+135+129+1.2%
TotalOver 52.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

UConn Huskies at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesUConn at Southern Miss
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Southern Miss +3
should be Southern Miss +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · Southern MissBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Southern Miss. Market says UConn by 3, the Nasty Number says UConn by 1.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Southern Miss →
Market
UConn by 3TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UConn and Southern Miss's last game
FPI
Southern Miss by 68.8 pts our side
Sagarin
UConn by 3.50.6 pts against us
Massey
Southern Miss by 24.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
UConn by 1.51.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Southern Miss. Sagarin at UConn by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UConn by 1.5opened UConn by 3.5now UConn by 3SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Southern Miss is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.21.7 pts over the market
Massey
55.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
561.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56opened 54now 54.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Southern Miss spreadTotal (over)Southern Miss MLUConn ML
TOM+3 -10454.5 -110+135-160
Kalshi+3.554.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+3 -10654 -119+132-156
All 12 books
Southern Miss spreadTotal (over)Southern Miss MLUConn ML
TOM+3 -10454.5 -110+135-160
Kalshi+3.554.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
BetMGM+3 -11054.5 -110+130-155
BetOnline.ag+3 -10454.5 -110+140-160
BetRivers+3.5 -11554.5 -113+138-175
BetUS+3 -10554.5 -110+138-160
Bovada+3 -10554.5 -110+135-160
DraftKings+3 -10554.5 -112+130-155
FanDuel+2.5 +10054.5 -110+122-146
LowVig.ag+3 +10054.5 -108+140-160
MyBookie.ag+3 -11054 -110+127-163
Pinnacle+3 -10654 -119+132-156

Marked: best for Southern Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +3.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Southern Miss to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 43. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Southern Miss loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Southern Miss +3.0 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 28% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.5, only $7 available; Under 54.5, only $275 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUConn by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UConn and Southern Miss's last game
FPI-6.0-185
Sagarin+3.5+146
Massey-2.0-123
Market (10 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.556.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+135+117+3.5%
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.0-104-119+3.4%
TotalOver 54.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida Atlantic
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm
Florida International +6.5
should be Florida International +5.5 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5
Sniff of Nasty · Florida InternationalBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Florida International. Market says Florida Atlantic by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 5.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 6.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI
Florida Atlantic by 0.55.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Florida Atlantic by 6.5on the market
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 2.54.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 5.50.9 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Florida International. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida Atlantic by 5.5opened Florida Atlantic by 7now Florida Atlantic by 6.5SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Florida International is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
63TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
65.92.9 pts over the market
Massey
60.12.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.077% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
621 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 62opened 62.5now 63SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 62.5 to 63. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLFlorida International ML
TOM-6.5 -11263 -110-255+205
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢-239 69¢
Pinnacle-6.5 -11062.5 -109-252+204
All 12 books
Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLFlorida International ML
TOM-6.5 -11263 -110-255+205
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢-239 69¢
BetMGM-6.5 -11562.5 -110-250+200
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11263 -110-255+211
BetRivers-7 -11462.5 -110-265+200
BetUS-6.5 -11063 -110-255+215
Bovada-6.5 -11062.5 -110-250+210
DraftKings-6.5 -11562.5 -110-250+205
FanDuel-6.5 -11462.5 -110-245+198
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10863 -108-255+211
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11063 -110-265+200
Pinnacle-6.5 -11062.5 -109-252+204

Marked: best for Florida International, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida International +6.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Florida International to win · +205 at TOM
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31.
Not Nasty
the Under 63.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida International +6.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward Florida International, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $0 available; Under 62.5, only $483 available; Florida International Panthers ML, only $417 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -244 here against -218 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI-0.5-108
Sagarin-6.5-201
Massey-2.5-129
Market (10 books)-6.5-244
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points63.062.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineFlorida International Panthers ML+205+182+2.7%
SpreadFlorida International Panthers +6.5-108-113+1.1%
TotalUnder 63.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus; moneyline -244 here against -218 consensus.

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 59
should be 57.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 58
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says LSU by 3, the Nasty Number says LSU by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
LSU by 3TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
FPI
LSU by 5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Ole Miss by 2.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 20.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 2opened LSU by 2.5now LSU by 3SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 2.5 to LSU by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.67.4 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
545 pts under the market
Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54opened 59.5now 59SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
TOM+3 -11459 -110+130-155
Kalshi+1.5 +105 47¢58.5 -116 52¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+3 -11158.5 -110+127-150
All 12 books
Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
TOM+3 -11459 -110+130-155
Kalshi+1.5 +105 47¢58.5 -116 52¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
BetMGM+3 -11259.5 -105+125-150
BetOnline.ag+3 -11559 -110+135-155
BetRivers+3 -10758.5 -113+128-159
BetUS+3 -11059 -110+134-155
Bovada+3 -11558.5 -110+130-150
Caesars+3 -11458.5 -117+126-150
DraftKings+3 -11558.5 -118+130-155
FanDuel+2.5 -10258.5 -115+122-146
MyBookie.ag+123-158
Pinnacle+3 -11158.5 -110+127-150

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +3.0 · -114 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ole Miss to win · +130 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
FPI+5.0+169
SagarinPK+101
Massey-2.5-129
Market (10 books)+3.0+136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.054.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML+130+125+0.9%
SpreadOle Miss Rebels +3.0-114-111-0.6%
TotalUnder 59.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksGeorgia Southern at Jacksonville State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Over 52.5
should be 53.3 · getting 0.8 pts
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 52.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Jacksonville State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Jacksonville State →
Market
Jacksonville State by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia Southern and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI
Jacksonville State by 12.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 3.5on the market
Massey
Jacksonville State by 21.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Jacksonville State by 30.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Georgia Southern. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jacksonville State by 3opened Jacksonville State by 3now Jacksonville State by 3.5SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Georgia Southern's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
59.87.3 pts over the market
Massey
52.7on the market
Nasty Number
56.23.7 pts over the market
Over 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.2opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Jacksonville State spreadTotal (over)Jacksonville State MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-3.5 -11052.5 -110-175+145
Pinnacle-3.5 -11652.5 -111-189+158
All 11 books
Jacksonville State spreadTotal (over)Jacksonville State MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-3.5 -11052.5 -110-175+145
BetMGM-4 -10852.5 -110-185+150
BetOnline.ag-4 -10552.5 -110-175+153
BetRivers-3.5 -11453.5 -114-175+140
BetUS-4 -10552.5 -110-175+150
Bovada-4 -11052.5 -110-185+160
DraftKings-3.5 -11853.5 -112-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -11053.5 -110-170+140
LowVig.ag-4 -10152.5 -108-175+153
MyBookie.ag-4 -11053 -110-200+154
Pinnacle-3.5 -11652.5 -111-189+158

Marked: best for Georgia Southern, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Georgia Southern to win · +145 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 3.7 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.6 away from Georgia Southern, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onJacksonville State by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia Southern and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI-1.0-111
Sagarin-3.5-144
Massey-2.0-124
Market (10 books)-3.5-167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.556.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+145+140+0.8%
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +3.5-110-114+0.8%
TotalOver 52.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 09-13 13:40.

TOM matches the consensus.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at Cincinnati
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Cincinnati -14.5
should be Cincinnati -15 · getting 0.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Cincinnati by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Cincinnati by 15. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Cincinnati by 14.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
FPI
Cincinnati by 21.57 pts our side
Sagarin
Cincinnati by 16.52.1 pts our side
Massey
Cincinnati by 3.511.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
Cincinnati by 150.4 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Cincinnati. Massey at Cincinnati by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cincinnati by 15opened Cincinnati by 14.5now Cincinnati by 14.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.71.8 pts under the market
Massey
51.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.20.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.2opened 49now 50.5SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLMiami (OH) ML
TOM-14.5 -11050.5 -110
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢50.5 -107 50¢-660 86¢+530 15¢
Pinnacle-14.5 -10850.5 -114-700+467
All 13 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLMiami (OH) ML
TOM-14.5 -11050.5 -110
Kalshi-14.5 -112 51¢50.5 -107 50¢-660 86¢+530 15¢
BetMGM-14.5 -11050.5 -110-700+525
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -11050.5 -110-675+491
BetRivers-14.5 -11350.5 -112-835+525
BetUS-14.5 -11050.5 -110-675+490
Bovada-14.5 -11051 -105-700+475
Caesars-14.5 -11250.5 -110-750+500
DraftKings-14.5 -11050.5 -118-675+490
FanDuel-14.5 -11550.5 -110-820+550
LowVig.ag-14.5 -10650.5 -108-675+491
MyBookie.ag-15 -11050.5 -110-800+480
Pinnacle-14.5 -10850.5 -114-700+467

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati -14.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Cincinnati to win · -700
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati -14.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCincinnati by 1521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
FPI-21.5-1274
Sagarin-16.5-657
Massey-3.5-142
Market (11 books)-14.5-510
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.550.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats -14.5-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML-700-532priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at Toledo
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:00pm
Temple +5.5
should be Temple +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3.5
Sniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Toledo by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
Toledo by 5.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
FPI
Toledo by 6.51.1 pts against us
Sagarin
Toledo by 32.3 pts our side
Massey
Toledo by 2.53 pts our side
Nasty Number
Toledo by 50.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Temple. FPI at Toledo by 6.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 5opened Toledo by 5.5now Toledo by 5.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.11.1 pts over the market
Massey
52.41.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.21.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.2opened 51.5now 51SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLTemple ML
TOM-5.5 -11251 -110-210+170
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢51.5 -103 49¢-218 67¢
Pinnacle-6 -10551 -112-227+186
All 12 books
Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLTemple ML
TOM-5.5 -11251 -110-210+170
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢51.5 -103 49¢-218 67¢
BetMGM-5.5 -11051.5 -102-210+175
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11251 -110-210+180
BetRivers-5.5 -11451.5 -114-230+180
BetUS-5.5 -11051 -110-210+180
Bovada-6 -10551 -115-225+185
DraftKings-5.5 -11051.5 -105-218+180
FanDuel-5.5 -11050.5 -115-200+164
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10851 -108-210+180
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11051.5 -110-236+180
Pinnacle-6 -10551 -112-227+186

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple +5.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Temple to win · +170 at TOM
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +5.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 2.3 away from Temple, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $0 available; Temple Owls ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
FPI-6.5-202
Sagarin-3.0-140
Massey-2.5-131
Market (10 books)-5.5-201
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.052.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +5.5-108-111+0.6%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+170+170-0.0%
TotalOver 51.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.8 consensus.

Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at Rice
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Rice +9.5
should be Rice +9 · getting 0.5 pts · was +10.5
Sniff of Nasty · RiceBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Rice. Market says Western Michigan by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 9. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Rice →
Market
Western Michigan by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
FPI
Western Michigan by 133.7 pts against us
Sagarin
Western Michigan by 72.6 pts our side
Massey
Rice by 1.511.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Western Michigan by 90.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Rice. FPI at Western Michigan by 13 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Michigan by 9opened Western Michigan by 10.5now Western Michigan by 9.5SunMon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Rice is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
39.34.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.21.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.3opened 46now 43.5SunMon

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLWestern Michigan ML
TOM+9.5 -11043.5 -110+270-360
Kalshi+9.543.5 -116 52¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
Pinnacle+10 -11044 -105+323-435
All 12 books
Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLWestern Michigan ML
TOM+9.5 -11043.5 -110+270-360
Kalshi+9.543.5 -116 52¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
BetMGM+9.5 -10843.5 -110+290-375
BetOnline.ag+9.5 -11043.5 -110+289-360
BetRivers+10 -11443.5 -113+320-435
BetUS+9.5 -11043.5 -110+290-360
Bovada+10 -11043.5 -115+325-435
DraftKings+9.5 -10843.5 -115+295-375
FanDuel+9.5 -10643.5 -110+315-410
LowVig.ag+9.5 -10643.5 -108+289-360
MyBookie.ag+9.5 -11043.5 -110+310-450
Pinnacle+10 -11044 -105+323-435

Marked: best for Rice, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +9.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Rice to win · +270 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Rice +9.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Rice, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $444 available; Under 43.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +282 here against +333 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Michigan by 921% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
FPI+13.0+431
Sagarin+7.0+209
Massey-1.5-118
Market (10 books)+9.5+282
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.542.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineRice Owls ML+270+262+0.6%
SpreadRice Owls +9.5-110-112+0.4%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Rice Owls since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 4.7.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +333 consensus.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm
Under 50.5
should be 49.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 53.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 50.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San José State too: market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 6, but at -107 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore San José State →
Market
Fresno State by 6.5TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
FPI
Fresno State by 81.4 pts against us
Sagarin
Fresno State by 42.4 pts our side
Massey
San José State by 28.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 60.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean San José State. FPI at Fresno State by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 6opened Fresno State by 7.5now Fresno State by 6.5SunMon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Under -112
The Four
SP+ pace
44.16.4 pts under the market
Massey
500.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
47.13.4 pts under the market
Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.1opened 51.5now 50.5SunMon

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLFresno State ML
TOM+6.5 -10750.5 -108+200-250
Pinnacle+6.5 -10250.5 -109+210-260
All 11 books
San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLFresno State ML
TOM+6.5 -10750.5 -108+200-250
BetMGM+6.5 -10850.5 -108+200-235
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -10750.5 -108+207-250
BetRivers+6.5 -11451 -110+195-250
BetUS+6.5 -10550.5 -110+210-250
Bovada+6.5 -10550.5 -110+215-260
DraftKings+6.5 -10250.5 -112+205-250
FanDuel+6.5 -11049.5 -112+198-245
LowVig.ag+6.5 -10350.5 -106+207-250
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11050.5 -110+204-270
Pinnacle+6.5 -10250.5 -109+210-260

Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State +6.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
San José State to win · +200 at TOM
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
FPI+8.0+233
Sagarin+4.0+155
Massey-2.0-122
Market (10 books)+6.5+209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.547.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineSan Jose State Spartans ML+200+189+1.2%
SpreadSan Jose State Spartans +6.5-107-108+0.3%
TotalUnder 50.5-112-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central Michigan
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 40
should be 39 · getting 1 pt · was 42.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 40.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Central Michigan by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 1.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
FPI
Central Michigan by 10.7 pts against us
Sagarin
Central Michigan by 1.5on the market
Massey
Central Michigan by 20.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 1.50.1 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Central Michigan. FPI at Central Michigan by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Central Michigan by 1.5opened Central Michigan by 1.5now Central Michigan by 1.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
36.23.8 pts under the market
Massey
40.40.4 pts over the market
Weather
-1.712 mph wind, 57% chance of rain, takes 1.7 points off
Nasty Number
36.63.4 pts under the market
Under 40 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 36.6opened 38.5now 40SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLWyoming ML
TOM-1.5 -10540 -110-118-102
Kalshi-1.5 -112 51¢40.5 +101 48¢-116 52¢+101 48¢
Pinnacle-1.5 -10839.5 -112-120+102
All 12 books
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLWyoming ML
TOM-1.5 -10540 -110-118-102
Kalshi-1.5 -112 51¢40.5 +101 48¢-116 52¢+101 48¢
BetMGM-1 -11039.5 -110-120+100
BetOnline.ag-1.5 -10540 -110-118-102
BetRivers-2 -10939.5 -110-129+104
BetUS-1.5 -10540 -110-120+100
Bovada-1.5 -11039.5 -115-120+100
DraftKings-1.5 -11239.5 -110-120+100
FanDuel-1.5 -11039.5 -112-118-102
LowVig.ag-1.5 -10140 -108-118-102
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11039.5 -110-123-103
Pinnacle-1.5 -10839.5 -112-120+102

Marked: best for Central Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan -1.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Central Michigan to win · -118 at TOM
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49.
Not Nasty
the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 40. Weather takes 1.7 off. That's 3.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
FPI-1.0-109
Sagarin-1.5-120
Massey-2.0-123
Market (10 books)-1.5-113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.036.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas -1.5-105-107+0.4%
MoneylineCentral Michigan Chippewas ML-118-118-0.0%
TotalUnder 40.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.6 consensus.

SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at Louisville
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 59.5
should be 58.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 57.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more SMU than the bookmore Louisville →
Market
Louisville by 1.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPI
Louisville by 0.51.1 pts against us
Sagarin
Louisville by 1.5on the market
Massey
Louisville by 20.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisville by 1.50 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Louisville. FPI at Louisville by 0.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 1.5opened Louisville by 1.5now Louisville by 1.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
54.84.7 pts under the market
Massey
59.20.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
572.5 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57opened 60now 59.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLSMU ML
TOM-1.5 -10559.5 -110-120
Kalshi-1.5 -107 50¢59.5 -107 50¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
Pinnacle-2 +10159.5 -109-115-101
All 13 books
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLSMU ML
TOM-1.5 -10559.5 -110-120
Kalshi-1.5 -107 50¢59.5 -107 50¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
BetMGM-1.5 -10859.5 -110-120+100
BetOnline.ag-1.5 -10559.5 -110-120+100
BetRivers-2 -11460 -112-134+108
BetUS-2 -11059.5 -110-120+100
Bovada-1 -11059.5 -110-115-105
Caesars-1.5 -10959.5 -113-120+102
DraftKings-1.5 -10859.5 -112-115-105
FanDuel-2.5 -10559.5 -110-126+105
LowVig.ag-1.5 -10159.5 -108-120+100
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11060 -110-123-103
Pinnacle-2 +10159.5 -109-115-101

Marked: best for Louisville, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisville -1.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Louisville to win · -120 at TOM
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49.
Not Nasty
the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 89°F.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs +1.5, only $429 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPI-0.5-104
Sagarin-1.5-118
Massey-2.0-122
Market (11 books)-1.5-115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.557.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisville Cardinals -1.5-105-106+0.3%
MoneylineLouisville Cardinals ML-120-117-0.6%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus.

Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsOhio at South Alabama
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Ohio +4.5
should be Ohio +4.5 · was +4
Sniff of Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says South Alabama by 4.5, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 4.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore South Alabama →
Market
South Alabama by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ohio and South Alabama's last game
FPI
South Alabama by 40.7 pts our side
Sagarin
South Alabama by 40.6 pts our side
Massey
South Alabama by 22.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Alabama by 4.50.2 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Alabama by 4.5opened South Alabama by 6now South Alabama by 4.5SunMon

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.12.9 pts under the market
Massey
54.93.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.50.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.5opened 52.5now 51SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLOhio ML
TOM-4.5 -11051 -112-190+160
Kalshi-4.5 -107 50¢-182 63¢+152 38¢
Pinnacle-4 -11252 -104-196+164
All 12 books
South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLOhio ML
TOM-4.5 -11051 -112-190+160
Kalshi-4.5 -107 50¢-182 63¢+152 38¢
BetMGM-4.5 -10851.5 -108-190+160
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -11051 -112-190+165
BetRivers-4.5 -11352.5 -113-200+160
BetUS-4.5 -11051 -110-190+163
Bovada-4.5 -10551.5 -115-195+165
DraftKings-4.5 -10551.5 -112-192+160
FanDuel-4.5 -10851.5 -115-192+158
LowVig.ag-4.5 -10651 -110-190+165
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11051.5 -110-210+161
Pinnacle-4 -11252 -104-196+164

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio +4.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Ohio to win · +160 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio +4.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 46% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $0 available; Under 51.5, only $365 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Alabama by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ohio and South Alabama's last game
FPI-4.0-149
Sagarin-4.0-151
Massey-2.0-124
Market (10 books)-4.5-182
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.051.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineOhio Bobcats ML+160+158+0.2%
SpreadOhio Bobcats +4.5-110-111+0.2%
TotalOver 51.0-112-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at Delaware
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:30am
Over 57.5
should be 57.9 · getting 0.4 pts
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 57.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Delaware by 5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Delaware →
Market
Delaware by 5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
FPI
Delaware by 8
Sagarin
Delaware by 4
Massey
Delaware by 2
Nasty Number
Delaware by 50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Delaware by 5opened Delaware by 5now Delaware by 5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM, Over -112
The Four
SP+ pace
61.54 pts over the market
Massey
57.7on the market
Nasty Number
59.62.1 pts over the market
Over 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 58now 57.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLCoastal Carolina ML
TOM-5 -11057.5 -112-205+165
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢57.5-208 66¢+166 36¢
Pinnacle-5 -10857.5 -109-207+172
All 12 books
Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLCoastal Carolina ML
TOM-5 -11057.5 -112-205+165
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢57.5-208 66¢+166 36¢
BetMGM-5 -11057.5 -108-210+175
BetOnline.ag-5 -11057.5 -112-205+177
BetRivers-5.5 -11257.5 -113-210+165
BetUS-5 -11058 -110-205+175
Bovada-5 -11057.5 -110-210+175
DraftKings-5.5 -10557.5 -110-218+180
FanDuel-5.5 -11057.5 -108-210+172
LowVig.ag-5 -10657.5 -110-205+177
MyBookie.ag-5 -11057.5 -110-216+165
Pinnacle-5 -10857.5 -109-207+172

Marked: best for the Delaware side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +5.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · +165 at TOM
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onDelaware by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
FPI-8.0-238
Sagarin-4.0-157
Massey-2.0-123
Market (10 books)-5.0-196
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.559.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +5.0-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+165+167-0.3%
TotalOver 57.5-112-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-13 06:03.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Over 52
should be 52.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 56.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Arizona State by 6, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 6. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Arizona State →
Market
Arizona State by 6TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPI
Arizona State by 6.5
Sagarin
Arizona State by 6
Massey
Arizona State by 2.5
Nasty Number
Arizona State by 60 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona State by 6opened Arizona State by 5.5now Arizona State by 6SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 5.5 to Arizona State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
53.31.3 pts over the market
Massey
59.27.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.24.2 pts over the market
Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.2opened 53.5now 52SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Arizona State spreadTotal (over)Arizona State MLKansas ML
TOM-6 -10452 -105-225+175
Pinnacle-6 -10851.5 -110-226+186
All 12 books
Arizona State spreadTotal (over)Arizona State MLKansas ML
TOM-6 -10452 -105-225+175
BetMGM-6 -11051.5 -115-220+180
BetOnline.ag-6 -11352 -105-240+200
BetRivers-6 -11251.5 -114-225+170
BetUS-6 -11052 -105-240+203
Bovada-6 -11051.5 -110-225+185
Caesars-6 -11051.5 -115-235+194
DraftKings-6 -10851.5 -115-230+190
FanDuel-5.5 -12251.5 -110-235+190
LowVig.ag-6 -10952 -103-240+200
MyBookie.ag-6 -11052 -110-250+189
Pinnacle-6 -10851.5 -110-226+186

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona State -6.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Arizona State to win · -225 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 59. That's 4.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArizona State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPI-6.5-195
Sagarin-6.0-192
Massey-2.5-129
Market (11 books)-6.0-215
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.056.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArizona State Sun Devils -6.0-104+104-1.9%
MoneylineArizona State Sun Devils ML-225-190-3.7%
TotalOver 52.0-105-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.9.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at Clemson
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 44.5
should be 44 · getting 0.5 pts
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 44.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Clemson by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Clemson by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
FPI
Clemson by 1
Sagarin
Clemson by 7.5
Massey
Clemson by 2
Nasty Number
Clemson by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Clemson by 3opened Clemson by 4.5now Clemson by 3.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Clemson by 4.5 to Clemson by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
39.74.8 pts under the market
Massey
44.4on the market
Nasty Number
422.5 pts under the market
Under 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42opened 45now 44.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLNorth Carolina ML
TOM-3.5 -10544.5 -110-168+138
Kalshi-3.5 -103 49¢45.5 +109 46¢-175 62¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10144.5 -101-168+142
All 13 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLNorth Carolina ML
TOM-3.5 -10544.5 -110-168+138
Kalshi-3.5 -103 49¢45.5 +109 46¢-175 62¢+140 40¢
BetMGM-3.5 -10544.5 -108-175+140
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -10544.5 -110-168+148
BetRivers-3 -11844.5 -114-165+130
BetUS-3.5 -10544.5 -110-170+146
Bovada-3.5 +10044 -110-170+145
Caesars-3.5 -10844.5 -109-170+144
DraftKings-3.5 -10544.5 -102-166+140
FanDuel-3.5 -11044.5 -110-172+142
LowVig.ag-3.5 -10144.5 -108-168+148
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11044.5 -110-191+148
Pinnacle-3.5 -10144.5 -101-168+142

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Carolina +3.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
North Carolina to win · +138 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. That's 2.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward North Carolina). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $401 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
FPI-1.0-114
Sagarin-7.5-228
Massey-2.0-126
Market (11 books)-3.5-161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.542.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +3.5-115-113-0.4%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+138+141-0.5%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at Vanderbilt
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:45am
Over 51
should be 52.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vanderbilt by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more NC State than the bookmore Vanderbilt →
Market
Vanderbilt by 3.5TOM, -102
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
FPI
Vanderbilt by 6.5
Sagarin
Vanderbilt by 3.5
Massey
Vanderbilt by 2.5
Nasty Number
Vanderbilt by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vanderbilt by 3.5opened Vanderbilt by 4.5now Vanderbilt by 3.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 4.5 to Vanderbilt by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM, Over -107
The Four
SP+ pace
59.98.9 pts over the market
Massey
55.64.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.76.7 pts over the market
Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.7opened 53now 51SunMon

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Vanderbilt spreadTotal (over)Vanderbilt MLNC State ML
TOM-3.5 -10251 -107-162+132
Pinnacle-3.5 -10451.5 -107-175+147
All 12 books
Vanderbilt spreadTotal (over)Vanderbilt MLNC State ML
TOM-3.5 -10251 -107-162+132
BetMGM-3.5 -10851.5 -112-175+140
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -10251 -107-162+142
BetRivers-3.5 -11451.5 -113-180+143
BetUS-3.5 -10551 -110-160+138
Bovada-3.5 -10551.5 -110-175+150
Caesars-3.5 -10851.5 -106-170+143
DraftKings-3.5 -10551.5 -105-175+145
FanDuel-3.5 -11051.5 -110-170+140
LowVig.ag-3.5 +10251 -105-162+142
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11051.5 -110-185+143
Pinnacle-3.5 -10451.5 -107-175+147

Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State +3.5 · -118 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
NC State to win · +132 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.7 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward NC State).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVanderbilt by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
FPI-6.5-202
Sagarin-3.5-144
Massey-2.5-131
Market (11 books)-3.5-155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.057.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack +3.5-118-110-1.7%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML+132+145-2.2%
TotalOver 51.0-107-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at Duke
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Over 51
should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 50.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Duke →
Market
Duke by 9.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Duke's last game
FPI
Duke by 13.5
Sagarin
Duke by 9
Massey
Duke by 3
Nasty Number
Duke by 9.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Duke by 9.5opened Duke by 9.5now Duke by 9.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.71.7 pts over the market
Massey
54.53.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.62.6 pts over the market
Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.6opened 50.5now 51SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Duke spreadTotal (over)Duke MLStanford ML
TOM-9.5 -10851 -110-350+275
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢51.5+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9.5 -10851.5 -105-372+284
All 13 books
Duke spreadTotal (over)Duke MLStanford ML
TOM-9.5 -10851 -110-350+275
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢51.5+280 25¢
BetMGM-9.5 -11251.5 -105-350+280
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10851 -110-350+280
BetRivers-9.5 -11350.5 -114-385+280
BetUS-9.5 -11051 -110-350+280
Bovada-9.5 -11051 -115-370+285
Caesars-9.5 -11051.5 -105-380+290
DraftKings-9.5 -11251.5 -102-375+295
FanDuel-9.5 -11551.5 -104-375+290
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10451 -108-350+280
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11051 -110-391+280
Pinnacle-9.5 -10851.5 -105-372+284

Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stanford +9.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Stanford to win · +275 at TOM
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 22.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 91°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $0 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $462 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onDuke by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Duke's last game
FPI-13.5-456
Sagarin-9.0-261
Massey-3.0-140
Market (11 books)-9.5-335
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.053.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadStanford Cardinal +9.5-112-107-1.2%
MoneylineStanford Cardinal ML+275+275-0.0%
TotalOver 51.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South Carolina
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pm
Under 59.5
should be 58.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Carolina by 4, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 4. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 4TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
FPI
South Carolina by 4.5
Sagarin
South Carolina by 5.5
Massey
South Carolina by 2
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 4opened South Carolina by 3.5now South Carolina by 4SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3.5 to South Carolina by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
55.44.1 pts under the market
Massey
54.25.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.84.7 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.8opened 58.5now 59.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLMississippi State ML
TOM-4 -11059.5 -110-180+150
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢-175 62¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10059.5 -111-168+142
All 13 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLMississippi State ML
TOM-4 -11059.5 -110-180+150
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢-175 62¢+140 40¢
BetMGM-3.5 -10559.5 -108-165+138
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11059.5 -110-165+145
BetRivers-3.5 -11059 -110-175+138
BetUS-3.5 -11059.5 -110-165+142
Bovada-3.5 +10059.5 -110-170+145
Caesars-3.5 -10859.5 -112-164+138
DraftKings-3.5 -10559.5 -108-162+136
FanDuel-3.5 -10259.5 -115-160+132
LowVig.ag-3.5 -10659.5 -108-165+145
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11059.5 -110-178+138
Pinnacle-3.5 +10059.5 -111-168+142

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina -4.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.
Not Nasty
the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 54. That's 4.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -172 here against -151 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
FPI-4.5-165
Sagarin-5.5-176
Massey-2.0-126
Market (11 books)-4.0-172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.554.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks -4.0-110+108-4.3%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML-180-155-3.5%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 5.0.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.5 consensus; moneyline -172 here against -151 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at Auburn
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Under 53.5
should be 51.5 · getting 2 pts · was 52
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 9.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Florida by 2.5TOM, -103
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
Florida by 1
Massey
Auburn by 2.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 20.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 2opened Florida by 2.5now Florida by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
41.112.4 pts under the market
Massey
47.26.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.29.3 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.2opened 54now 53.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLFlorida ML
TOM+2.5 -10353.5 -110+118-138
Kalshi+2.552.5 -116 52¢+118 44¢-143 57¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10552.5 -119+115-134
All 13 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLFlorida ML
TOM+2.5 -10353.5 -110+118-138
Kalshi+2.552.5 -116 52¢+118 44¢-143 57¢
BetMGM+3 -11552.5 -110+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10353.5 -110+118-138
BetRivers+2.5 -10853.5 -110+116-143
BetUS+2.5 -10553.5 -110+120-140
Bovada+2.5 -10553 -110+115-135
Caesars+2.5 -10653.5 -106+119-141
DraftKings+2.5 -10552.5 -112+120-142
FanDuel+2.5 -10252.5 -106+118-142
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10153.5 -108+118-138
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11053.5 -110+119-153
Pinnacle+2.5 -10552.5 -119+115-134

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +2.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Auburn to win · +118 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. That's 9.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +2.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
FPIPK-102
Sagarin+1.0+110
Massey-2.5-127
Market (11 books)+2.5+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.544.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAuburn Tigers +2.5-103+102-1.2%
MoneylineAuburn Tigers ML+118+123-1.0%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at Northwestern
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 49
should be 46.7 · getting 2.3 pts · was 45.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 49.0. 15 mph wind and 60% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. The market's total is 49; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Northwestern by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Northwestern by 4.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado's last game
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
Northwestern by 10
Nasty Number
Northwestern by 4.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Northwestern by 4.5opened Northwestern by 3.5now Northwestern by 4.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Northwestern by 3.5 to Northwestern by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
445 pts under the market
Weather
-2.815 mph wind, 60% chance of rain, takes 2.8 points off
Nasty Number
41.27.8 pts under the market
Under 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.2opened 48now 49SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLColorado ML
TOM-4.5 -10549 -110-178+148
Kalshi48.5-182 63¢+152 38¢
Pinnacle-4.5 -10648 -119-196+163
All 13 books
Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLColorado ML
TOM-4.5 -10549 -110-178+148
Kalshi48.5-182 63¢+152 38¢
BetMGM-4 -11048.5 -112-190+155
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -10549 -110-180+157
BetRivers-3.5 -11448 -110-190+150
BetUS-4.5 -10549 -110-180+155
Bovada-4.5 -11048.5 -110-195+165
Caesars-4.5 -10349.5 -105-190+155
DraftKings-4.5 -10248.5 -112-185+154
FanDuel-4.5 -10549.5 -110-192+158
LowVig.ag-4.5 -10149 -108-180+157
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11049 -110-212+163
Pinnacle-4.5 -10648 -119-196+163

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -4.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Northwestern to win · -178 at TOM
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58.
Not Nasty
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44. Weather takes 2.8 off. That's 7.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Northwestern).

Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats -3.5, only $410 available; Colorado Buffaloes +3.5, only $439 available; Over 48.5, only $315 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNorthwestern by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado's last game
FPIPK-102
Sagarin-10.0-302
Masseyrates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales
Market (11 books)-4.5-170
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.041.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats -4.5-105+107-2.8%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML-178-165-1.8%
TotalUnder 49.0-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at Louisiana
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
Over 56.5
should be 58.7 · getting 2.2 pts · was 57.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 56.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 8.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Louisiana →
Market
Louisiana by 7.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
FPI
Louisiana by 11
Sagarin
Louisiana by 11
Massey
Louisiana by 2.5
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 8.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 8.5opened Louisiana by 8.5now Louisiana by 7.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Louisiana by 8.5 to Louisiana by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
66.510 pts over the market
Massey
61.34.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
63.97.4 pts over the market
Over 56.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 63.9opened 58.5now 56.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Louisiana spreadTotal (over)Louisiana MLUAB ML
TOM-7.5 -11256.5 -110-300+240
Kalshi-7.5 -112 51¢56.5 -116 52¢-306 74¢
Pinnacle-7.5 -10256.5 -107-320+251
All 12 books
Louisiana spreadTotal (over)Louisiana MLUAB ML
TOM-7.5 -11256.5 -110-300+240
Kalshi-7.5 -112 51¢56.5 -116 52¢-306 74¢
BetMGM-7.5 -10856.5 -110-300+250
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11256.5 -110-300+245
BetRivers-8.5 -11256.5 -113-345+260
BetUS-7.5 -11056.5 -110-300+250
Bovada-7.5 -10556.5 -110-310+255
DraftKings-7.5 -11056.5 -112-310+250
FanDuel-8.5 -11056.5 -114-330+260
LowVig.ag-7.5 -10856.5 -108-300+245
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11057 -110-319+234
Pinnacle-7.5 -10256.5 -107-320+251

Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana -7.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Louisiana to win · -300 at TOM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67.
Not Nasty
the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 61. That's 7.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $459 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $345 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
FPI-11.0-335
Sagarin-11.0-324
Massey-2.5-130
Market (10 books)-7.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.563.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.5-112+105-4.2%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML-300-249-3.6%
TotalOver 56.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pm
Over 46.5
should be 47.4 · getting 0.9 pts · was 47
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says San Diego State by 2, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore San Diego State →
Market
San Diego State by 2TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen James Madison and San Diego State's last game
FPI
San Diego State by 1
Sagarin
San Diego State by 2
Massey
San Diego State by 1.5
Nasty Number
San Diego State by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number San Diego State by 2opened a pick'emnow San Diego State by 2SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
49.22.7 pts over the market
Massey
525.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.64.1 pts over the market
Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.6opened 46.5now 46.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San Diego State spreadTotal (over)San Diego State MLJames Madison ML
TOM-2 -11546.5 -110-135+115
Pinnacle-2.5 -11246.5 -110-133+114
All 11 books
San Diego State spreadTotal (over)San Diego State MLJames Madison ML
TOM-2 -11546.5 -110-135+115
BetMGM-2.5 -11046.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2 -11546.5 -110-135+115
BetRivers-2 -11046.5 -113-132+106
BetUS-2 -11546.5 -110-135+115
Bovada-2.5 -11546.5 -110-135+115
DraftKings-2.5 -11246.5 -110-130+110
FanDuel-2.5 -11546.5 -110-142+118
LowVig.ag-2 -11146.5 -108-135+115
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11046.5 -110-139+109
Pinnacle-2.5 -11246.5 -110-133+114

Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison +2.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
James Madison to win · +115 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. That's 4.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward San Diego State).

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSan Diego State by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen James Madison and San Diego State's last game
FPI-1.0-111
Sagarin-2.0-125
Massey-1.5-119
Market (10 books)-2.0-129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.550.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes +2.0-105+106-2.8%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML+115+122-1.6%
TotalOver 46.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLA
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm
Over 53
should be 53.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 52.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 53.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 1.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 15.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore UCLA →
Market
UCLA by 15.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
FPI
UCLA by 9.5
Sagarin
UCLA by 11
Massey
UCLA by 3
Nasty Number
UCLA by 141.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 14opened UCLA by 14now UCLA by 15.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UCLA by 14 to UCLA by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
54.61.6 pts over the market
Massey
54.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.61.6 pts over the market
Over 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 1.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.6opened 53now 53SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLPurdue ML
TOM-15.5 -10553 -105
Kalshi-14.5 -103 49¢52.5 -112 51¢-719 87¢+530 15¢
Pinnacle-14.5 -10453 -107-755+494
All 13 books
UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLPurdue ML
TOM-15.5 -10553 -105
Kalshi-14.5 -103 49¢52.5 -112 51¢-719 87¢+530 15¢
BetMGM-14.5 -11052.5 -108-700+525
BetOnline.ag-15.5 -10553 -105-700+505
BetRivers-14.5 -11352.5 -113-770+500
BetUS-15.5 -10553 -105-700+500
Bovada-14.5 -10553 -110-750+500
Caesars-14.5 -11052.5 -115-675+475
DraftKings-14.5 -11052.5 -112-700+500
FanDuel-14.5 -11552.5 -110-850+570
LowVig.ag-15.5 -10153 -103-700+505
MyBookie.ag-15 -11052.5 -110-752+460
Pinnacle-14.5 -10453 -107-755+494

Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +15.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Purdue to win · +500
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 53.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. That's 1.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward UCLA). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
FPI-9.5-285
Sagarin-11.0-336
Massey-3.0-139
Market (11 books)-15.5-527
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.054.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +15.5-115-107-1.8%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+500+460priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.0-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at Minnesota
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Minnesota by 24.5, our data says Minnesota by 22
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 24.5.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Minnesota by 24.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
FPI
Minnesota by 16.5
Sagarin
Minnesota by 25.5
Massey
Minnesota by 3.5
Nasty Number
Minnesota by 222.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Minnesota by 22opened Minnesota by 26.5now Minnesota by 24.5SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 26.5 to Minnesota by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
40.38.7 pts under the market
Massey
49on the market
Nasty Number
44.74.3 pts under the market
Under 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 49now 49SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLAkron ML
TOM-24.5 -10849 -110
Kalshi49.5 -107 50¢-2580 96¢+1775
Pinnacle-24 -11349 -118+1345
All 12 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLAkron ML
TOM-24.5 -10849 -110
Kalshi49.5 -107 50¢-2580 96¢+1775
BetMGM-24.5 -10849.5 -108-3000+1700
BetOnline.ag-24.5 -10849 -110
BetRivers-25.5 -11248.5 -112
BetUS-24.5 -10849 -110+1500
Bovada-24 -11549 -120+1200
DraftKings-24.5 -10249.5 -105-3200+1400
FanDuel-24.5 -11549.5 -110+1600
LowVig.ag-24.5 -10449 -108
MyBookie.ag-24.5 -11049 -110-3030+980
Pinnacle-24 -11349 -118+1345

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +24.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Akron to win · +1448
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 49. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -27.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward Akron).

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $97 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMinnesota by 2230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
FPI-16.5-661
Sagarin-25.5-2374
Massey-3.5-143
Market (10 books)-24.5-1409
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.044.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +24.5-112+107-4.6%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+1448+1396priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Akron Zips since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.2 consensus.

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at Arkansas
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Over 54
should be 55.8 · getting 1.8 pts · was 52.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 25.5.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Georgia by 25.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
FPI
Georgia by 26
Sagarin
Georgia by 17
Massey
Arkansas by 1
Nasty Number
Georgia by 232.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 23opened Georgia by 26now Georgia by 25.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 26 to Georgia by 25.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
62.18.1 pts over the market
Massey
58.14.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.16.1 pts over the market
Over 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.1opened 53.5now 54SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLGeorgia ML
TOM+25.5 -10554 -110
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢+1775 -2580 96¢
Pinnacle+24.5 +10054 -119+1216-2928
All 13 books
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLGeorgia ML
TOM+25.5 -10554 -110
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢+1775 -2580 96¢
BetMGM+25 -11054.5 -110+1550-3000
BetOnline.ag+25.5 -11054 -110
BetRivers+26 -11254.5 -109+1400
BetUS+25.5 -11053.5 -110
Bovada+24.5 +10054 -120+1100
Caesars+25.5 -11454.5 -109+1300
DraftKings+25.5 -11254.5 -110+1700
FanDuel+25.5 -11054.5 -110+1600
LowVig.ag+25.5 -10654 -108
MyBookie.ag+24.5 -11054.5 -110+1006
Pinnacle+24.5 +10054 -119+1216-2928

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +25.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Arkansas to win · +1400
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 6.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +25.0 (the market moved 7.4 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $430 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +24.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 2330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
FPI+26.0+2518
Sagarin+17.0+679
Massey-1.0-112
Market (11 books)+25.5+1328
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.060.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +25.5-105+108-3.1%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+1400+1559priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 7.4 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 1.6.

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +24.9 consensus.

The line is +25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 44.5
should be 43.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 23.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Iowa State by 23.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
FPI
Iowa State by 22
Sagarin
Iowa State by 22.5
Massey
Iowa State by 4
Nasty Number
Iowa State by 230.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa State by 23opened Iowa State by 22.5now Iowa State by 23.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Iowa State by 22.5 to Iowa State by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Under -108
The Four
SP+ pace
37.17.4 pts under the market
Massey
43.31.2 pts under the market
Weather
-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
39.25.3 pts under the market
Under 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.2opened 45now 44.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLBowling Green ML
TOM-23.5 -11044.5 -112
Pinnacle-24 -10346 -103-2275+1043
All 12 books
Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLBowling Green ML
TOM-23.5 -11044.5 -112
BetMGM-23.5 -11244.5 -118-3000+1550
BetOnline.ag-23.5 -11044.5 -112
BetRivers-23.5 -10945.5 -112+1100
BetUS-23.5 -11044.5 -110
Bovada-23.5 -11545.5 -110-2500+1000
Caesars-23.5 -11044.5 -117+1300
DraftKings-23.5 -11544.5 -118+1500
FanDuel-23.5 -11844.5 -112+1600
LowVig.ag-23.5 -10644.5 -110
MyBookie.ag-23.5 -11045 -110-3030+1025
Pinnacle-24 -10346 -103-2275+1043

Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green +23.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +1192
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM
SP+ projects 37 and Massey projects 43. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -23.8 consensus.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIowa State by 2321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
FPI-22.0-1408
Sagarin-22.5-1493
Massey-4.0-153
Market (11 books)-23.5-1183
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.539.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +23.5-110+139-10.5%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+1192+1634priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.5-108-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -23.8 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsBuffalo at Penn State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 48
should be 47.4 · getting 0.6 pts · was 47.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 39.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Penn State →
Market
Penn State by 39.5TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Buffalo and Penn State's last game
FPI
Penn State by 33
Sagarin
Penn State by 36
Massey
Penn State by 4.5
Nasty Number
Penn State by 381.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 38opened Penn State by 39.5now Penn State by 39.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
42.95.1 pts under the market
Massey
47.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.12.9 pts under the market
Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.1opened 47now 48SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLBuffalo ML
TOM-39.5 -11348 -110
Pinnacle-39.5 -10547.5 -119
All 11 books
Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLBuffalo ML
TOM-39.5 -11348 -110
BetMGM-39.5 -10848.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-39.5 -11348 -110
BetRivers-39.5 -11247.5 -114
BetUS-39.5 -11549 -110
Bovada-39.5 -10547.5 -120
Caesars-39.5 -11348.5 -108
DraftKings-39.5 -11248.5 -102
FanDuel-39.5 -12048.5 -110
LowVig.ag-39.5 -10948 -108
Pinnacle-39.5 -10547.5 -119

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +39.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 47. That's 2.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 3821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Buffalo and Penn State's last game
FPI-33.0
Sagarin-36.0
Massey-4.5-162
Market (10 books)-39.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.045.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +39.5-107+138-9.7%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Over 49
should be 49.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 50.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 20.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Kansas State →
Market
Kansas State by 20TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
FPI
Kansas State by 14
Sagarin
Kansas State by 16.5
Massey
Kansas State by 3
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 18.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas State by 18.5opened Kansas State by 19now Kansas State by 20SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kansas State by 19 to Kansas State by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.32.3 pts over the market
Massey
512 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.12.1 pts over the market
Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.1opened 49.5now 49SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Kansas State spreadTotal (over)Kansas State MLTulane ML
TOM-20 -11049 -110
Pinnacle-20.5 -10849.5 -111-1379+755
All 12 books
Kansas State spreadTotal (over)Kansas State MLTulane ML
TOM-20 -11049 -110
BetMGM-20 -11049.5 -108-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20 -11049 -110-1400+836
BetRivers-20.5 -11249.5 -113-2500+950
BetUS-20 -11049 -110-1400+825
Bovada-20.5 -11049.5 -110-1400+750
Caesars-20.5 -10849.5 -110-1700+900
DraftKings-20.5 -10549.5 -110-1800+1000
FanDuel-20.5 -11049.5 -110-2000+980
LowVig.ag-20 -10649 -108-1400+836
MyBookie.ag-20 -11049.5 -110-2019+859
Pinnacle-20.5 -10849.5 -111-1379+755

Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +20.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Tulane to win · +859
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 43% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Kansas State).

TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.4 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 18.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
FPI-14.0-465
Sagarin-16.5-637
Massey-3.0-137
Market (11 books)-20.0-852
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.051.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTulane Green Wave +20.0-110+114-5.6%
MoneylineTulane Green Wave ML+859+866priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.4 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 60
should be 58.1 · getting 1.9 pts · was 56.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Ohio State →
Market
Ohio State by 52.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
FPI
Ohio State by 54
Sagarin
Ohio State by 49
Massey
Ohio State by 5
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 520.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 52opened Ohio State by 52.5now Ohio State by 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
5010 pts under the market
Massey
51.48.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.79.3 pts under the market
Under 60 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.7opened 59now 60SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLKent State ML
TOM-52.5 -11560 -110
Pinnacle-53 -10858.5 -114
All 11 books
Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLKent State ML
TOM-52.5 -11560 -110
BetMGM-52.5 -10859.5 +100
BetOnline.ag-52.5 -11558.5 -110
BetRivers-52.5 -10858.5 -112
BetUS-52.5 -11058.5 -110
Bovada-53 -11058.5 -115
Caesars-52.5 -11058.5 -115
DraftKings-52.5 -11258.5 -115
FanDuel-52.5 -10859.5 -106
LowVig.ag-52.5 -11158.5 -108
Pinnacle-53 -10858.5 -114

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kent State +52.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 9.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 5221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
FPI-54.0
Sagarin-49.0
Massey-5.0-169
Market (10 books)-52.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.050.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKent State Golden Flashes +52.5-105-164+10.9%
TotalUnder 60.0-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus; total 60.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Texas State by 3, our data says Texas State by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 3, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Texas State →
Market
Texas State by 3TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
FPI
North Texas by 7
Sagarin
Texas State by 1
Massey
Texas State by 1.5
Nasty Number
Texas State by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 2.5opened Texas State by 3now Texas State by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
63.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
76.713.2 pts over the market
Massey
67.54 pts over the market
Nasty Number
72.18.6 pts over the market
Over 63.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 72.1opened 62.5now 63.5SunMon

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-3 -10863.5 -110-150+125
Pinnacle-3 +10063.5 -109-145+123
All 11 books
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-3 -10863.5 -110-150+125
BetMGM-3 -11063.5 -108-145+125
BetOnline.ag-3 -11063.5 -110-150+130
BetRivers-3 -10763.5 -110-152+120
BetUS-3 -11064 -110-150+129
Bovada-3 +10063.5 -110-145+125
DraftKings-3 -10863.5 -105-155+130
FanDuel-2.5 -12263.5 -110-146+122
LowVig.ag-3 -10663.5 -108-150+130
MyBookie.ag-3 -11063.5 -110-155+122
Pinnacle-3 +10063.5 -109-145+123

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas +3.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
North Texas to win · +125 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.
Not Nasty
the Over 63.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 77 and Massey projects 68. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
FPI+7.0+208
Sagarin-1.0-111
Massey-1.5-115
Market (10 books)-3.0-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points63.572.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +3.0-112-106-1.4%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+125+131-1.2%
TotalOver 63.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at Wisconsin
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:30am
Under 45.5
should be 43.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 47.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 24.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 24TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
FPI
Wisconsin by 22.5
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 28
Massey
Wisconsin by 3.5
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 23.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 23.5opened Wisconsin by 24.5now Wisconsin by 24SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Wisconsin by 24.5 to Wisconsin by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
38.17.4 pts under the market
Massey
42.62.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.067% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
39.46.1 pts under the market
Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.4opened 46.5now 45.5SunMon

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-24 -11045.5 -110
Kalshi45.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢+1464
Pinnacle-23.5 -11045 -108-2478+1099
All 13 books
Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-24 -11045.5 -110
Kalshi45.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢+1464
BetMGM-24 -11245.5 -108-3000+1550
BetOnline.ag-24 -11045.5 -110
BetRivers-24 -11546 -113+1400
BetUS-24 -11045.5 -110
Bovada-23.5 -11045 -110-2500+1000
Caesars-24 -10945.5 -110+1300
DraftKings-24.5 -10545.5 -112-3200+1400
FanDuel-24.5 -11045.5 -110+1600
LowVig.ag-24 -10645.5 -108
MyBookie.ag-24.5 -11045.5 -110+1075
Pinnacle-23.5 -11045 -108-2478+1099

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eastern Michigan +24.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Eastern Michigan to win · +1400
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 43. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -24.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Eastern Michigan).

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $457 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 23.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
FPI-22.5-1512
Sagarin-28.0-3388
Massey-3.5-144
Market (11 books)-24.0-1236
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.539.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadEastern Michigan Eagles +24.0-110+137-10.1%
MoneylineEastern Michigan Eagles ML+1400+1728priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at Alabama
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Alabama by 20.5, our data says Alabama by 19
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 20.5.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 20.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI
Alabama by 17.5
Sagarin
Alabama by 14
Massey
Alabama by 3.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 191.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 19opened Alabama by 20now Alabama by 20.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 20 to Alabama by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.84.7 pts under the market
Massey
522.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.41.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 50.5now 49.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLFlorida State ML
TOM-20.5 -11249.5 -115
Pinnacle-20.5 -10849 -109-1428+773
All 12 books
Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLFlorida State ML
TOM-20.5 -11249.5 -115
BetMGM-20.5 -10849.5 -110-1400+900
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11249.5 -115-1500+874
BetRivers-20.5 -11049.5 -110-1667+800
BetUS-20.5 -11049 -110-1500+850
Bovada-20.5 -11049 -110-1500+775
Caesars-20.5 -10849.5 -110-1450+850
DraftKings-20.5 -11249.5 -110-1600+900
FanDuel-20.5 -10649.5 -110-1700+890
LowVig.ag-20.5 -10849.5 -114-1500+874
MyBookie.ag-21 -11049.5 -110-1587+740
Pinnacle-20.5 -10849 -109-1428+773

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +20.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Florida State to win · +850
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Alabama).

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 1921% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI-17.5-762
Sagarin-14.0-473
Massey-3.5-142
Market (11 books)-20.5-846
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.548.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +20.5-108+115-5.5%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+850+917priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 1.8.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&M
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Texas A&M by 17, our data says Texas A&M by 16
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas A&M by 17.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore Texas A&M →
Market
Texas A&M by 17TOM, -116
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPI
Texas A&M by 21
Sagarin
Texas A&M by 13
Massey
Texas A&M by 3
Nasty Number
Texas A&M by 160.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas A&M by 16opened Texas A&M by 16now Texas A&M by 17SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas A&M by 16 to Texas A&M by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
50.2on the market
Massey
51.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.90.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.9opened 49.5now 50SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLKentucky ML
TOM-17 -11650 -110
Kalshi-16.549.5 -112 51¢-788 88¢+625 13¢
Pinnacle-17 -10549 -119-854+541
All 13 books
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLKentucky ML
TOM-17 -11650 -110
Kalshi-16.549.5 -112 51¢-788 88¢+625 13¢
BetMGM-17 -10849.5 -112-800+600
BetOnline.ag-17 -11850 -110-850+586
BetRivers-16.5 -11449 -110-910+550
BetUS-17 -12050 -110-850+580
Bovada-17 -10549.5 -110-850+550
Caesars-17 -11350.5 -103
DraftKings-16.5 -11849.5 -110-850+575
FanDuel-16.5 -11050.5 -108-950+590
LowVig.ag-17 -11450 -108-850+586
MyBookie.ag-17 -11050 -110-1000+560
Pinnacle-17 -10549 -119-854+541

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +17.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Kentucky to win · +580
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M).

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -16.5, only $329 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas A&M by 1621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPI-21.0-1198
Sagarin-13.0-426
Massey-3.0-139
Market (11 books)-17.0-588
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.050.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +17.0-104+110-3.3%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+580+623priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at Michigan
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 48
should be 47.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 48.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore Michigan →
Market
Michigan by 35TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
FPI
Michigan by 34
Sagarin
Michigan by 36.5
Massey
Michigan by 4.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 350.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 35opened Michigan by 36.5now Michigan by 35SunMon

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Michigan by 36.5 to Michigan by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
44.63.4 pts under the market
Massey
471 pts under the market
Weather
-2.013 mph wind, 53% chance of rain, takes 2 points off
Nasty Number
43.84.2 pts under the market
Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.8opened 50now 48SunMon

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLUTEP ML
TOM-35 -11048 -110
Kalshi48.5 -112 51¢
Pinnacle-35 -10548.5 -108
All 11 books
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLUTEP ML
TOM-35 -11048 -110
Kalshi48.5 -112 51¢
BetMGM-35.5 -10848.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-35.5 -10548 -110
BetRivers-35.5 -11049 -112
BetUS-35.5 -10548 -110
Bovada-35 -10548.5 -110
DraftKings-35.5 -10248.5 -105
FanDuel-35.5 -10547.5 -115
LowVig.ag-35.5 -10148 -108
Pinnacle-35 -10548.5 -108

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTEP +35.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 39 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 2 off. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 3521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
FPI-34.0
Sagarin-36.5
Massey-4.5-160
Market (9 books)-35.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.043.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTEP Miners +35.0-110+155-13.1%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at Rutgers
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Over 59.5
should be 60.3 · getting 0.8 pts · was 55.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 24.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Rutgers →
Market
USC by 24TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
FPI
USC by 23.5
Sagarin
USC by 17
Massey
Rutgers by 0.5
Nasty Number
USC by 222.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 22opened USC by 24.5now USC by 24SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 24.5 to USC by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
65.25.7 pts over the market
Massey
59.3on the market
Nasty Number
62.22.7 pts over the market
Over 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 62.2opened 56.5now 59.5SunMon

The total has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 3 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLUSC ML
TOM+24 -11259.5 -110
Kalshi59.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢
Pinnacle+24.5 -11659.5 -108+1148-2660
All 13 books
Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLUSC ML
TOM+24 -11259.5 -110
Kalshi59.5 -112 51¢-2042 95¢
BetMGM+24 -11059.5 -108+1450-2500
BetOnline.ag+24 -11059.5 -110
BetRivers+24.5 -11459.5 -110+1400
BetUS+24 -11059.5 -110
Bovada+24.5 -12059.5 -110+1100-2800
Caesars+24 -11059.5 -109+1400
DraftKings+23.5 -10259.5 -108+1300-2800
FanDuel+23.5 -10559.5 -110+1280
LowVig.ag+24 -10659.5 -108
MyBookie.ag+24 -11059.5 -110+830-2000
Pinnacle+24.5 -11659.5 -108+1148-2660

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rutgers +24.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Rutgers to win · +1290
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.7 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward USC).

Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $323 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 2230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
FPI+23.5+1703
Sagarin+17.0+681
Massey-0.5-106
Market (11 books)+24.0+1233
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.562.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +24.0-112+112-5.6%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+1290+1341priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 59.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward USC Trojans since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.3 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at Utah
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Utah by 27.5, our data says Utah by 26.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 27.5.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Utah →
Market
Utah by 27.5TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
FPI
Utah by 24
Sagarin
Utah by 24.5
Massey
Utah by 4
Nasty Number
Utah by 26.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 26.5opened Utah by 27.5now Utah by 27.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.51.5 pts under the market
Massey
57.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.40.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.4opened 57now 57SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLUtah State ML
TOM-27.5 -11457 -110
Pinnacle-28 -10257 -107
All 11 books
Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLUtah State ML
TOM-27.5 -11457 -110
BetMGM-28 -10856.5 -110+2200
BetOnline.ag-28 -11057 -110
BetRivers-28 -11256.5 -112+1800
BetUS-28 -11057 -110
Bovada-28 -10557 -110
Caesars-28.5 -10956.5 -114+1800
DraftKings-28.5 -10256.5 -115+2000
FanDuel-27.5 -12056.5 -108+2000
MyBookie.ag-28.5 -11057 -110+1125
Pinnacle-28 -10257 -107

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah State +27.5 · -106 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +1895
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Utah).

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 26.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
FPI-24.0-1866
Sagarin-24.5-1913
Massey-4.0-155
Market (10 books)-27.5-1820
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.056.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +27.5-106+141-9.9%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1895+2678priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.1 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at Liberty
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
No bet
market says Liberty by 14.5, our data says Liberty by 13.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Liberty →
Market
Liberty by 14.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
FPI
Liberty by 11
Sagarin
Liberty by 12
Massey
Liberty by 2.5
Nasty Number
Liberty by 13.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Liberty by 13.5opened Liberty by 14.5now Liberty by 14.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.73.2 pts over the market
Massey
49.6on the market
Nasty Number
51.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.1opened 54now 49.5SunMon

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Liberty spreadTotal (over)Liberty MLBall State ML
TOM-14.5 -11049.5 -110
Pinnacle-14 -10750 -111-639+436
All 11 books
Liberty spreadTotal (over)Liberty MLBall State ML
TOM-14.5 -11049.5 -110
BetMGM-14.5 -10549.5 -108-650+500
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -11049.5 -112-675+491
BetRivers-14.5 -10850.5 -112-1000+550
BetUS-14.5 -11049.5 -110-675+490
Bovada-14 -11050 -110-650+450
DraftKings-14.5 -10549.5 -108-650+470
FanDuel-14.5 -11049.5 -106-750+520
LowVig.ag-14.5 -10649.5 -110-675+491
MyBookie.ag-14.5 -11049.5 -110-725+460
Pinnacle-14 -10750 -111-639+436

Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ball State +14.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ball State to win · +490
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Liberty). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLiberty by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
FPI-11.0-323
Sagarin-12.0-365
Massey-2.5-132
Market (10 books)-14.5-486
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBall State Cardinals +14.5-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineBall State Cardinals ML+490+458priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Liberty Flames since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 7.6.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at Baylor
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Over 53.5
should be 54.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 19.5.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 19.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
FPI
Baylor by 17
Sagarin
Baylor by 15.5
Massey
Baylor by 3
Nasty Number
Baylor by 18.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 18.5opened Baylor by 17.5now Baylor by 19.5SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Baylor by 17.5 to Baylor by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
59.45.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
573.5 pts over the market
Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57opened 55.5now 53.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-19.5 -11053.5 -110
Kalshi-18.5 -116 52¢53.5-869 89¢+685 12¢
Pinnacle-18 -11154 -110-1075+637
All 12 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-19.5 -11053.5 -110
Kalshi-18.5 -116 52¢53.5-869 89¢+685 12¢
BetMGM-18.5 -11053.5 -110-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-18.5 -11053.5 -110-975+650
BetRivers-17.5 -11354 -112-1000+600
BetUS-18.5 -11053.5 -110-975+645
Bovada-18.5 -11054 -110-1100+650
DraftKings-18.5 -10853.5 -110-1050+675
FanDuel-18.5 -10653.5 -110-1300+760
LowVig.ag-18.5 -10653.5 -108-975+650
MyBookie.ag-18.5 -11054 -110-1205+620
Pinnacle-18 -11154 -110-1075+637

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech +19.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +650
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 97°F.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5, only $313 available; Over 53.5, only $304 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -18.2 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 18.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
FPI-17.0-692
Sagarin-15.5-584
Massey-3.0-137
Market (10 books)-19.5-683
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.557.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +19.5-110+113-5.4%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+650+826priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -18.2 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at Indiana
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Under 60
should be 59.3 · getting 0.7 pts · was 59.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 44TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPI
Indiana by 41.5
Sagarin
Indiana by 40
Massey
Indiana by 4.5
Nasty Number
Indiana by 42.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 42.5opened Indiana by 44now Indiana by 44SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
57.82.2 pts under the market
Massey
57.82.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.82.2 pts under the market
Under 60 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.8opened 59.5now 60SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-44 -11260 -110
Kalshi
Pinnacle-44 -11259.5 -116
All 11 books
Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-44 -11260 -110
Kalshi
BetMGM-44.5 -10860.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-44 -11559.5 -115
BetRivers-44.5 -11259.5 -113
BetUS-44 -11059.5 -110
Bovada-44 -11559.5 -115
DraftKings-44.5 -11260.5 -110
FanDuel-45.5 -10560.5 -108
LowVig.ag-44 -11159.5 -114
Pinnacle-44 -11259.5 -116

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +44.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 64 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $20 available; Under 60.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 42.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPI-41.5
Sagarin-40.0
Massey-4.5-163
Market (9 books)-44.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.057.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.0-108-181+12.5%
TotalUnder 60.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.7 consensus.

The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm
Over 51.5
should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says App State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore App State →
Market
App State by 17.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Charlotte and App State's last game
FPI
App State by 15
Sagarin
App State by 16
Massey
App State by 3.5
Nasty Number
App State by 170.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number App State by 17opened App State by 20.5now App State by 17.5SunMon

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
57.45.9 pts over the market
Massey
55.94.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.65.1 pts over the market
Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.6opened 50now 51.5SunMon

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

App State spreadTotal (over)App State MLCharlotte ML
TOM-17.5 -10551.5 -110
Pinnacle-17.5 -11051.5 -104-1263+712
All 11 books
App State spreadTotal (over)App State MLCharlotte ML
TOM-17.5 -10551.5 -110
BetMGM-17.5 -10851.5 -105-1100+750
BetOnline.ag-17.5 -10551.5 -110-1100+709
BetRivers-17.5 -11351.5 -110-1430+750
BetUS-17.5 -11051.5 -110-1100+700
Bovada-17.5 -11051 -115-1300+725
DraftKings-17.5 -11051.5 -105-1050+675
FanDuel-17.5 -11051.5 -104-1200+720
LowVig.ag-17.5 -10151.5 -108-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-17.5 -11051.5 -110-1299+670
Pinnacle-17.5 -11051.5 -104-1263+712

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +17.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Charlotte to win · +710
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Charlotte).

Full detail
We settle onApp State by 1721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Charlotte and App State's last game
FPI-15.0-523
Sagarin-16.0-623
Massey-3.5-147
Market (10 books)-17.5-750
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.556.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +17.5-115+111-6.0%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+710+685priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsEast Carolina at Old Dominion
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm
No bet
market says Old Dominion by 3, our data says Old Dominion by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 3, the Nasty Number says Old Dominion by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more East Carolina than the bookmore Old Dominion →
Market
Old Dominion by 3TOM, -101
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen East Carolina and Old Dominion's last game
FPI
East Carolina by 0.5
Sagarin
Old Dominion by 1
Massey
Old Dominion by 2
Nasty Number
Old Dominion by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Old Dominion by 2.5opened Old Dominion by 2.5now Old Dominion by 3SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 2.5 to Old Dominion by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.83.2 pts under the market
Massey
52.43.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.1on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.1opened 50now 49SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLEast Carolina ML
TOM-3 -10149 -110-150+125
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢49.5-143 57¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-3 +10049.5 -109-143+122
All 12 books
Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLEast Carolina ML
TOM-3 -10149 -110-150+125
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢49.5-143 57¢+114 45¢
BetMGM-3 -10549.5 -105-145+125
BetOnline.ag-3 -10149 -110-150+130
BetRivers-2.5 -11349.5 -112-143+115
BetUS-3 +10049 -110
Bovada-3 +10049.5 -110-145+125
DraftKings-3 -10849.5 -110-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -12248.5 -115-146+122
LowVig.ag-3 +10449 -108-150+130
MyBookie.ag-3 -11049.5 -110-153+120
Pinnacle-3 +10049.5 -109-143+122

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina +3.0 · -119 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
East Carolina to win · +125 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates +2.5, only $482 available; Over 49.5, only $467 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOld Dominion by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen East Carolina and Old Dominion's last game
FPI+0.5+106
Sagarin-1.0-113
Massey-2.0-127
Market (10 books)-3.0-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadEast Carolina Pirates +3.0-119-105-3.0%
MoneylineEast Carolina Pirates ML+125+132-1.3%
TotalOver 49.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus; moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCF
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says UCF by 18.5, our data says UCF by 17.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 18.5.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore UCF →
Market
UCF by 18.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
FPI
UCF by 16
Sagarin
UCF by 20.5
Massey
UCF by 3
Nasty Number
UCF by 17.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCF by 17.5opened UCF by 20.5now UCF by 18.5SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UCF by 20.5 to UCF by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.82.3 pts over the market
Massey
50.60.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.073% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.20.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 50.5now 51.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-18.5 -11051.5 -115
Pinnacle-18 -11451.5 -105-1292+722
All 10 books
UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-18.5 -11051.5 -115
BetMGM-19 -11051.5 -110-1200+825
BetOnline.ag-18.5 -11051.5 -115-1250+776
BetUS-18.5 -11051.5 -115-1250+800
Bovada-18.5 -11051 -115-1300+725
DraftKings-18.5 -11251.5 -108-1200+750
FanDuel-18.5 -11051.5 -108-1400+800
LowVig.ag-18.5 -10651.5 -114-1250+776
MyBookie.ag-18.5 -11051 -110-1205+640
Pinnacle-18 -11451.5 -105-1292+722

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia State +18.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Georgia State to win · +776
We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 51.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Georgia State).

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUCF by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
FPI-16.0-605
Sagarin-20.5-1089
Massey-3.0-137
Market (9 books)-18.5-777
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +18.5-110+112-5.1%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+776+761priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.2 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersNevada at Middle Tennessee
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says Nevada by 4, our data says Nevada by 4.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 4, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore Middle Tennessee →
Market
Nevada by 4TOM, -116
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nevada and Middle Tennessee's last game
FPI
Nevada by 8
Sagarin
Nevada by 5
Massey
Middle Tennessee by 1.5
Nasty Number
Nevada by 4.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nevada by 4.5opened Nevada by 5now Nevada by 4SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.52 pts over the market
Massey
482.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.3on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Middle Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Middle Tennessee MLNevada ML
TOM+4 -11650.5 -110+140-170
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -121 53¢-182 63¢
Pinnacle+4 -11751 -104+147-175
All 13 books
Middle Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Middle Tennessee MLNevada ML
TOM+4 -11650.5 -110+140-170
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -121 53¢-182 63¢
BetMGM+4 -10851.5 -105+155-190
BetOnline.ag+4 -11650.5 -108+149-170
BetRivers+4.5 -11251 -110+160-200
BetUS+4 -11050.5 -110+155-180
Bovada+3.5 -11050.5 -115+150-175
Caesars+3.5 -11050.5 -112+147-176
DraftKings+3.5 -10850.5 -118+145-175
FanDuel+3.5 -11051.5 -104+140-170
LowVig.ag+4 -11250.5 -106+149-170
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11050.5 -110+151-195
Pinnacle+4 -11751 -104+147-175

Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada -4.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Nevada to win · -170 at TOM
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 57.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee).

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $205 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNevada by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nevada and Middle Tennessee's last game
FPI+8.0+238
Sagarin+5.0+174
Massey-1.5-120
Market (11 books)+4.0+146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.550.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNevada Wolf Pack -4.0-104+106-2.3%
MoneylineNevada Wolf Pack ML-170-159-1.6%
TotalUnder 50.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersTroy at Missouri
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says Missouri by 27, our data says Missouri by 26
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri by 27.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Missouri →
Market
Missouri by 27TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Troy and Missouri's last game
FPI
Missouri by 23.5
Sagarin
Missouri by 26.5
Massey
Missouri by 3.5
Nasty Number
Missouri by 261.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Missouri by 26opened Missouri by 27now Missouri by 27SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
50.1on the market
Massey
50.50.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.30.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 50now 50SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLTroy ML
TOM-27 -10550 -115
Kalshi-3476 97¢+2243
Pinnacle-27 -10849.5 -108+1520
All 12 books
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLTroy ML
TOM-27 -10550 -115
Kalshi-3476 97¢+2243
BetMGM-26.5 -11050.5 -108+1850
BetOnline.ag-27 -10550 -115
BetRivers-27.5 -11050.5 -113+1800
BetUS-27 -10550.5 -110
Bovada-27 -11049.5 -110+1300
DraftKings-26.5 -11250.5 -108+2000
FanDuel-26.5 -11050.5 -110+1600
LowVig.ag-27 -10150 -114
MyBookie.ag-27 -11050 -110+1150
Pinnacle-27 -10849.5 -108+1520

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Troy +27.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Troy to win · +1694
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -27.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Troy).

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $306 available; Under 49.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMissouri by 2630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Troy and Missouri's last game
FPI-23.5-1665
Sagarin-26.5-2778
Massey-3.5-146
Market (10 books)-27.0-1604
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.050.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTroy Trojans +27.0-115+139-11.6%
MoneylineTroy Trojans ML+1694+2447priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Troy Trojans since 09-13 13:40.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says BYU by 18, our data says BYU by 18
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 18.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
BYU by 18TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
FPI
BYU by 18.5
Sagarin
BYU by 18
Massey
Colorado State by 1
Nasty Number
BYU by 180 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number BYU by 18opened BYU by 20now BYU by 18SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from BYU by 20 to BYU by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
45.37.2 pts under the market
Massey
54.41.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.92.6 pts under the market
Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLBYU ML
TOM+18 -11552.5 -110
Pinnacle+17 -10252 -107+636-1074
All 12 books
Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLBYU ML
TOM+18 -11552.5 -110
BetMGM+17.5 -10852.5 -105+700-1000
BetOnline.ag+18 -11552.5 -110+661-1000
BetRivers+17.5 -11352.5 -110+575-1000
BetUS+18 -11552.5 -110+650-1000
Bovada+17.5 -11552 -110+650-1100
Caesars+18 -11352.5 -108+675-1000
DraftKings+17.5 -10552.5 -105+650-1000
FanDuel+17.5 -10452.5 -110+760-1250
LowVig.ag+18 -11152.5 -108+661-1000
MyBookie.ag+18 -11052 -110+590-1099
Pinnacle+17 -10252 -107+636-1074

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

BYU -18.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
BYU to win · -1000
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Colorado State).

TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.3 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
FPI+18.5+852
Sagarin+18.0+788
Massey-1.0-110
Market (11 books)+18.0+680
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.549.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBYU Cougars -18.0-105-120+3.4%
MoneylineBYU Cougars ML-1000-788priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.3 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

The line is +18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at Maryland
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Virginia Tech by 3, our data says Virginia Tech by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Maryland →
Market
Virginia Tech by 3TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
FPI
Virginia Tech by 2.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Maryland by 2.5
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 2.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 2.5opened Virginia Tech by 3now Virginia Tech by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.83.7 pts under the market
Massey
55.31.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 53now 53.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+3 -11553.5 -110+120-145
Kalshi+2.553.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+3 -11054.5 -107+129-151
All 13 books
Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+3 -11553.5 -110+120-145
Kalshi+2.553.5 -107 50¢-155 59¢
BetMGM+3 -11553.5 -112+125-150
BetOnline.ag+3 -11553.5 -110+125-145
BetRivers+3 -11253.5 -110+125-157
BetUS+3 -11553.5 -110+125-145
Bovada+3 -11054.5 -110+130-150
Caesars+3 -11353.5 -113+126-150
DraftKings+3 -11553.5 -115+120-142
FanDuel+2.5 -10253.5 -112+126-152
LowVig.ag+3 -11153.5 -108+125-145
MyBookie.ag+3 -11053.5 -110+123-157
Pinnacle+3 -11054.5 -107+129-151

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +3.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Maryland to win · +120 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech).

Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $52 available; Under 53.5, only $331 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $460 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +136 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
FPI+2.5+131
SagarinPK-101
Massey-2.5-127
Market (11 books)+3.0+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins +3.0-115-109-1.4%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML+120+128-1.6%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 4.1.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +136 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre Dame
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Notre Dame by 29, our data says Notre Dame by 27.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Notre Dame →
Market
Notre Dame by 29TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPI
Notre Dame by 26.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 24
Massey
Notre Dame by 3.5
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 27.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 27.5opened Notre Dame by 29.5now Notre Dame by 29SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 29.5 to Notre Dame by 29. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.22.7 pts over the market
Massey
52.6on the market
Weather
-1.060% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
52.90.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 51.5now 52.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Notre Dame spreadTotal (over)Notre Dame MLMichigan State ML
TOM-29 -11552.5 -110
Pinnacle-30 -10152 -110
All 12 books
Notre Dame spreadTotal (over)Notre Dame MLMichigan State ML
TOM-29 -11552.5 -110
BetMGM-29 -11052.5 -105+2500
BetOnline.ag-29 -11552.5 -110
BetRivers-29.5 -11352.5 -110
BetUS-29 -11552.5 -110
Bovada-30 -10552 -110
Caesars-29.5 -11252.5 -107
DraftKings-29.5 -11052.5 -102+2000
FanDuel-29.5 -11052.5 -110+2400
LowVig.ag-29 -11152.5 -108
MyBookie.ag-29 -11052.5 -110+1275
Pinnacle-30 -10152 -110

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +29.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · +2183
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.7 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 27.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPI-26.5-2750
Sagarin-24.0-1786
Massey-3.5-143
Market (11 books)-29.0-1995
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +29.0-105+128-7.4%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+2183+3117priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.7 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

The line is -29.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at Oklahoma
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 20
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore Oklahoma →
Market
Oklahoma by 21.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
FPI
Oklahoma by 17.5
Sagarin
Oklahoma by 22.5
Massey
Oklahoma by 3
Nasty Number
Oklahoma by 201.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oklahoma by 20opened Oklahoma by 21.5now Oklahoma by 21.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.80.7 pts under the market
Massey
49.93.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.9opened 48now 46.5SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Oklahoma spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma MLNew Mexico ML
TOM-21.5 -11546.5 -110
Kalshi47.5 +101 48¢-1684 94¢+1242
Pinnacle-23.5 -10347.5 -106-2202+1022
All 12 books
Oklahoma spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma MLNew Mexico ML
TOM-21.5 -11546.5 -110
Kalshi47.5 +101 48¢-1684 94¢+1242
BetMGM-22.5 -11046.5 -112-2500+1350
BetOnline.ag-21.5 -11546.5 -110
BetRivers-22 -11347.5 -114+1150
BetUS-22.5 -11046.5 -110
Bovada-23.5 -10547.5 -105-2200+1000
DraftKings-22.5 -11246.5 -115-2100+1100
FanDuel-22.5 -11046.5 -110+1280
LowVig.ag-21.5 -11146.5 -108
MyBookie.ag-23 -11047 -110-2500+930
Pinnacle-23.5 -10347.5 -106-2202+1022

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico +21.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
New Mexico to win · +1124
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -21.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Oklahoma).

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners -21.5, only $24 available; New Mexico Lobos +21.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -23.0 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOklahoma by 2040% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
FPI-17.5-726
Sagarin-22.5-1495
Massey-3.0-140
Market (10 books)-21.5-1114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.547.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos +21.5-105+107-2.9%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML+1124+1008priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 46.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -23.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at Tennessee
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:45pm
No bet
market says Tennessee by 35.5, our data says Tennessee by 34.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.5.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 35.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
FPI
Tennessee by 30.5
Sagarin
Tennessee by 30.5
Massey
Tennessee by 4.5
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 34.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 34.5opened Tennessee by 34.5now Tennessee by 35.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tennessee by 34.5 to Tennessee by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
60.81.8 pts over the market
Massey
58.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
59.60.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 60now 59SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLKennesaw State ML
TOM-35.5 -11059 -110
Pinnacle-35.5 -10960 -102
All 11 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLKennesaw State ML
TOM-35.5 -11059 -110
BetMGM-35.5 -10859.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-35.5 -11059 -110
BetRivers-35.5 -11059.5 -110
BetUS-35.5 -11059 -110
Bovada-35.5 -11060 -105
Caesars-35.5 -10759.5 -113
DraftKings-35.5 -11259.5 -112
FanDuel-35.5 -10860.5 -110
LowVig.ag-35.5 -10659 -108
Pinnacle-35.5 -10960 -102

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +35.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Kennesaw State to win · +5238
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 34.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
FPI-30.5
Sagarin-30.5
Massey-4.5-161
Market (10 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.059.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +35.5-110+137-10.2%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML+5238priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 59.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.8 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCU
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
No bet
market says TCU by 20.5, our data says TCU by 20
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 20.5.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore TCU →
Market
TCU by 20.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
FPI
TCU by 17.5
Sagarin
TCU by 20
Massey
TCU by 3
Nasty Number
TCU by 200.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number TCU by 20opened TCU by 20.5now TCU by 20.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.90.9 pts over the market
Massey
56.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.80.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 56now 56SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLArkansas State ML
TOM-20.5 -11056 -110
Pinnacle-20 -10857.5 -108-1343+742
All 11 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLArkansas State ML
TOM-20.5 -11056 -110
BetMGM-20 -11057.5 -102-1400+900
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11056.5 -115-1450+856
BetRivers-20.5 -11357 -114-1667+800
BetUS-20.5 -11056.5 -115-1450+875
Bovada-20 -11057.5 -110-1400+750
DraftKings-20.5 -11057.5 -108-1450+850
FanDuel-20.5 -11057.5 -108-1600+860
LowVig.ag-20.5 -10656.5 -114-1450+856
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -110-1299+660
Pinnacle-20 -10857.5 -108-1343+742

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas State +20.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Arkansas State to win · +853
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.2 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTCU by 2021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
FPI-17.5-728
Sagarin-20.0-1061
Massey-3.0-141
Market (10 books)-20.5-816
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.056.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas State Red Wolves +20.5-110+125-8.0%
MoneylineArkansas State Red Wolves ML+853+1011priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.2 consensus; total 56.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at Texas
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
Over 58
should be 58.4 · getting 0.4 pts · was 57
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas →
Market
Texas by 30TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
FPI
Texas by 36
Sagarin
Texas by 28.5
Massey
Texas by 3.5
Nasty Number
Texas by 29.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 29.5opened Texas by 30now Texas by 30SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
62.74.7 pts over the market
Massey
57.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
602 pts over the market
Over 58 is a little nasty. Our total is 2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60opened 58now 58SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLUTSA ML
TOM-30 -11058 -115
Kalshi57.5 -121 53¢+3021
Pinnacle-30 -10958 -110
All 12 books
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLUTSA ML
TOM-30 -11058 -115
Kalshi57.5 -121 53¢+3021
BetMGM-30 -11058.5 -105+2500
BetOnline.ag-30 -11058 -115
BetRivers-30.5 -10957.5 -112+1800
BetUS-30 -11058 -115
Bovada-30 -11058 -110
DraftKings-30.5 -10858.5 -105+2000
FanDuel-30.5 -11058.5 -105+2400
LowVig.ag-30 -10658 -114
MyBookie.ag-30 -11058 -110+1250
Pinnacle-30 -10958 -110

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA +30.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
UTSA to win · +2183
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $300 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 29.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
FPI-36.0
Sagarin-28.5-3703
Massey-3.5-146
Market (10 books)-30.0-1961
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.060.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners +30.0-110+153-12.9%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML+2183+4485priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 58.0-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at Arizona
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pm
Under 49.5
should be 48.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 52.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Arizona →
Market
Arizona by 34TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
FPI
Arizona by 26
Sagarin
Arizona by 27.5
Massey
Arizona by 4
Nasty Number
Arizona by 32.51.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 32.5opened Arizona by 34.5now Arizona by 34SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
47.22.3 pts under the market
Massey
445.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.63.9 pts under the market
Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.6opened 50now 49.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-34 -11549.5 -105
Kalshi50.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-34.5 -10250 -103
All 12 books
Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-34 -11549.5 -105
Kalshi50.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-34.5 -10849.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-34 -11549.5 -105
BetRivers-34.5 -11250.5 -109
BetUS-34 -11549.5 -105
Bovada-34.5 -10550 -105
Caesars-34.5 -10949.5 -112
DraftKings-34.5 -10849.5 -112
FanDuel-34.5 -11049.5 -115
LowVig.ag-34 -11149.5 -103
Pinnacle-34.5 -10250 -103

Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +34.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Northern Illinois to win · +4692
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 44. That's 3.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -31.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Arizona).

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $359 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 32.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
FPI-26.0-2535
Sagarin-27.5-3250
Massey-4.0-150
Market (10 books)-34.0-4587
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.545.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Illinois Huskies +34.0-105+140-9.6%
MoneylineNorthern Illinois Huskies ML+4692+7037priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-115-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Arizona Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pm
No bet
market says North Dakota State by 28, our data says North Dakota State by 25.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 28.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Sacramento State →
Market
North Dakota State by 28TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen North Dakota State and Sacramento State's last game
FPI
North Dakota State by 23.5
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 19
Massey
Sacramento State by 0.5
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 25.52.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 25.5opened North Dakota State by 27.5now North Dakota State by 28SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.62.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.22.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 53.5now 52SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+28 -11052 -105
Pinnacle+28 -11053 -101
All 11 books
Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+28 -11052 -105
BetMGM+28 -10852.5 -102+2800
BetOnline.ag+28 -11052 -105
BetRivers+28.5 -11253 -113+1800
BetUS+28 -11052 -105
Bovada+28 -11053 +100
DraftKings+27.5 +10052.5 -102+2500
FanDuel+28.5 -11052.5 -110+2400
LowVig.ag+28 -10652 -103
MyBookie.ag+28 -11052 -110+1225
Pinnacle+28 -11053 -101

Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +28.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +2400
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened +27.5, now +28.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward North Dakota State).

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 25.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen North Dakota State and Sacramento State's last game
FPI+23.5+1684
Sagarin+19.0+887
Massey-0.5-107
Market (10 books)+28.0+2061
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +28.0-110+114-5.7%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+2400+2218priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-115-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward North Dakota State Bison since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm
No bet
market says Oregon State by 14.5, our data says Oregon State by 11.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5, but the raw ratings sit 10 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Montana than the bookmore Oregon State →
Market
Oregon State by 14.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon State's last game
Sagarin
Oregon State by 59.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 11.52.9 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Montana. The Nasty Number is 2.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 10 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this weekbetter now, 5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 11.5opened Oregon State by 9.5now Oregon State by 14.5Mon

The line has moved 5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 5 points more in Montana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

Montana +14.5 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Montana to win · +500
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -14.5. The market has moved 5.0 away from Montana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon State's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Montana
Sagarin-5.0-169
Masseyrates Montana and Oregon State on different scales
Market (1 books)-14.5-527
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMontana Grizzlies +14.5-110-129+4.0%
MoneylineMontana Grizzlies ML+500+357priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-14 08:04.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Mercer Bears at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsMercer at Georgia Tech
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Georgia Tech by 41.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 36
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia Tech by 41.5.

The spread

← more Mercer than the bookmore Georgia Tech →
Market
Georgia Tech by 41.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia Tech's last game
Sagarin
Georgia Tech by 23
Nasty Number
Georgia Tech by 365.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 36opened Georgia Tech by 41.5now Georgia Tech by 41.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLMercer ML
Kalshi
Mercer +41.5 · -110
Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $36 available; Under 59.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Tech by 3630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia Tech's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Mercer
Sagarin-23.0-1583
Masseyrates Mercer and Georgia Tech on different scales
Market (1 books)-41.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMercer Bears +41.5-110-260+19.8%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Maine Black Bears at Boston College EaglesMaine at Boston College
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pm
No bet
market says Boston College by 39.5, our data says Boston College by 36.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boston College by 39.5.

The spread

← more Maine than the bookmore Boston College →
Market
Boston College by 39.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Boston College's last game
Sagarin
Boston College by 29
Nasty Number
Boston College by 36.53.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boston College by 36.5opened Boston College by 39.5now Boston College by 39.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLMaine ML
Kalshi
Maine +39.5 · -110
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $307 available; Under 52.5, only $304 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onBoston College by 36.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Boston College's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Maine
Sagarin-29.0-4151
Masseyrates Maine and Boston College on different scales
Market (1 books)-39.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaine Black Bears +39.5-110+119-6.8%

The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting IlliniSouthern Illinois at Illinois
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pm
No bet
market says Illinois by 41.5, our data says Illinois by 36.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Illinois by 41.5.

The spread

← more Southern Illinois than the bookmore Illinois →
Market
Illinois by 41.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Illinois's last game
Sagarin
Illinois by 25.5
Nasty Number
Illinois by 36.54.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois by 36.5opened Illinois by 41.5now Illinois by 41.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLSouthern Illinois ML
Kalshi
Southern Illinois +41.5 · -110
Covers 71 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 84°F, 30% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois by 36.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Illinois's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Southern Illinois
Sagarin-25.5-2216
Masseyrates Southern Illinois and Illinois on different scales
Market (1 books)-41.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Illinois Salukis +41.5-110-245+18.6%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Duquesne Dukes at Washington State CougarsDuquesne at Washington State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Washington State by 35.5, our data says Washington State by 32.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington State by 35.5.

The spread

← more Duquesne than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Washington State by 35.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Washington State's last game
Sagarin
Washington State by 26
Nasty Number
Washington State by 32.52.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington State by 32.5opened Washington State by 35.5now Washington State by 35.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Duquesne +35.5 · -110
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onWashington State by 32.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Washington State's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Duquesne
Sagarin-26.0-2483
Masseyrates Duquesne and Washington State on different scales
Market (1 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDuquesne Dukes +35.5-110+116-6.1%

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa HawkeyesNorthern Iowa at Iowa
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
No bet
market says Iowa by 41.5, our data says Iowa by 38.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa by 41.5.

The spread

← more Northern Iowa than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Iowa by 41.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Iowa's last game
Sagarin
Iowa by 32
Nasty Number
Iowa by 38.52.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa by 38.5opened Iowa by 41.5now Iowa by 41.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLNorthern Iowa ML
Kalshi
Northern Iowa +41.5 · -110
Covers 67 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $140 available; Under 48.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onIowa by 38.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Iowa's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Northern Iowa
Sagarin-32.0
Masseyrates Northern Iowa and Iowa on different scales
Market (1 books)-41.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Iowa Panthers +41.5-110-205+14.8%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware State Hornets at South Florida BullsDelaware State at South Florida
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says South Florida by 37.5, our data says South Florida by 35
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 37.5.

The spread

← more Delaware State than the bookmore South Florida →
Market
South Florida by 37.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Florida's last game
Sagarin
South Florida by 29.5
Nasty Number
South Florida by 352.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 35opened South Florida by 37.5now South Florida by 37.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Delaware State +37.5 · -110
Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 3530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Florida's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Delaware State
Sagarin-29.5-4318
Masseyrates Delaware State and South Florida on different scales
Market (1 books)-37.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware State Hornets +37.5-110+131-9.1%

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State CowboysMurray State at Oklahoma State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No bet
market says Oklahoma State by 57.5, our data says Oklahoma State by 52
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma State by 57.5.

The spread

← more Murray State than the bookmore Oklahoma State →
Market
Oklahoma State by 57.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oklahoma State's last game
Sagarin
Oklahoma State by 39.5
Nasty Number
Oklahoma State by 525.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oklahoma State by 52opened Oklahoma State by 57.5now Oklahoma State by 57.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Murray State +57.5 · -110
Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F, 26% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onOklahoma State by 5230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oklahoma State's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Murray State
Sagarin-39.5
Masseyrates Murray State and Oklahoma State on different scales
Market (1 books)-57.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points69.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMurray State Racers +57.5-110-260+19.8%

The line is -57.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Washington Eagles at Washington HuskiesEastern Washington at Washington
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pm
No bet
market says Washington by 44.5, our data says Washington by 41
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 44.5.

The spread

← more Eastern Washington than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 44.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Washington's last game
Sagarin
Washington by 33
Nasty Number
Washington by 413.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 41opened Washington by 44.5now Washington by 44.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLEastern Washington ML
Kalshi
Eastern Washington +44.5 · -110
Covers 69 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available; Under 56.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 4130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Washington's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Eastern Washington
Sagarin-33.0
Masseyrates Eastern Washington and Washington on different scales
Market (1 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadEastern Washington Eagles +44.5-110-218+16.2%

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska CornhuskersNorth Dakota at Nebraska
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pm
No bet
market says Nebraska by 24.5, our data says Nebraska by 23
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 24.5.

The spread

← more North Dakota than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 24.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nebraska's last game
Sagarin
Nebraska by 20
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 231.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 23opened Nebraska by 24.5now Nebraska by 24.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLNorth Dakota ML
Kalshi49.5-2042 95¢
North Dakota +24.5 · -110
Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
North Dakota to win · +1600
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F, 26% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $466 available; North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML, only $42 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 2330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nebraska's last game
FPIdoesn't rate North Dakota
Sagarin-20.0-1057
Masseyrates North Dakota and Nebraska on different scales
Market (1 books)-24.5-1663
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks +24.5-110+121-7.1%
MoneylineNorth Dakota Fighting Hawks ML+1600+1627priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden HurricaneEast Texas A&M at Tulsa
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
No bet
market says Tulsa by 42.5, our data says Tulsa by 37.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulsa by 42.5.

The spread

← more East Texas A&M than the bookmore Tulsa →
Market
Tulsa by 42.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Tulsa's last game
Sagarin
Tulsa by 25
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 37.55.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 37.5opened Tulsa by 42.5now Tulsa by 42.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLEast Texas A&M ML
Kalshi
East Texas A&M +42.5 · -110
Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 25% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 37.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Tulsa's last game
FPIdoesn't rate East Texas A&M
Sagarin-25.0-2146
Masseyrates East Texas A&M and Tulsa on different scales
Market (1 books)-42.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadEast Texas A&M Lions +42.5-110-254+19.4%

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pm
No bet
market says Boise State by 22.5, our data says Boise State by 20
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 22.5.

The spread

← more South Dakota than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 22.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Boise State's last game
Sagarin
Boise State by 13.5
Nasty Number
Boise State by 202.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 20opened Boise State by 22.5now Boise State by 22.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Dakota +22.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
South Dakota to win · +1200
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Boise State's last game
FPIdoesn't rate South Dakota
Sagarin-13.5-458
Masseyrates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales
Market (1 books)-22.5-1258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Dakota Coyotes +22.5-110+101-2.6%
MoneylineSouth Dakota Coyotes ML+1200+1014priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stonehill Skyhawks at UMass MinutemenStonehill at Massachusetts
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Stonehill than the bookmore Massachusetts →
Market
Massachusetts by 35.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Massachusetts by 34.5now Massachusetts by 35.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLStonehill ML
Kalshi

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -35.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Massachusetts).

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Stonehill
Sagarindoesn't rate Stonehill
Masseyrates Stonehill and Massachusetts on different scales
Market (1 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 4.0.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe WarhawksSoutheastern Louisiana at UL Monroe
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:30pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover Southeastern Louisiana Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLSoutheastern Louisiana ML
Kalshi

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana).

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks -12.5, only $275 available; Southeastern Louisiana Lions +12.5, only $275 available; Over 47.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UL Monroe's last game
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Masseynot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-11.5-423
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana Lions since 09-14 08:04.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis TigersUT Martin at Memphis
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more UT Martin than the bookmore Memphis →
Market
Memphis by 35.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UT Martin and Memphis's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Memphis by 35.5now Memphis by 35.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UT Martin and Memphis's last game
FPIdoesn't rate UT Martin
Sagarindoesn't rate UT Martin
Masseyrates UT Martin and Memphis on different scales
Market (1 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Nicholls State Colonels at Sam Houston State BearkatsNicholls at Sam Houston
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Nicholls than the bookmore Sam Houston →
Market
Sam Houston by 18.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Sam Houston by 18.5now Sam Houston by 18.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game
FPIdoesn't rate Nicholls
Sagarindoesn't rate Nicholls
Masseyrates Nicholls and Sam Houston on different scales
Market (1 books)-18.5-904
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.5

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Sun Sep 20

14 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Titans +7
should be Titans +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +5.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 7, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →
Market
Eagles by 7TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Massey
Titans by 17.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Eagles by 5.51.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5.5opened Eagles by 7now Eagles by 7Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39TOM, Over -113
The Four
Massey
44.35.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.35.3 pts over the market
Over 39 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.3opened 38.5now 39Mon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
TOM+7 -10839 -113+265-340
Kalshi+7.5 -126 54¢39.5 -107 50¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
Pinnacle+7.5 -11639.5 -112+279-339
All 14 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
TOM+7 -10839 -113+265-340
Kalshi+7.5 -126 54¢39.5 -107 50¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
BetMGM+7 -11039.5 -110+270-325
BetOnline.ag+7 -10839 -113+274-340
BetRivers+7 -10639.5 -110+280-375
BetUS+7 -11039 -110+275-340
Bovada+7 -10539.5 -115+275-350
Caesars+7 -10939.5 -112+270-345
DraftKings+7 -11040.5 -105+250-310
Fanatics+7 -11039.5 -115+265-340
FanDuel+7 -11039.5 -112+280-350
LowVig.ag+7 -10339 -110+274-340
MyBookie.ag+270-370
Pinnacle+7.5 -11639.5 -112+279-339

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Titans to win · +265 at TOM
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Titans loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 39.0 · -113 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 5.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 4 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
FPIhasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Massey-1.0-112
Market (12 books)+7.0+277
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.044.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +7.0-108-148+7.7%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+265+192+6.8%
TotalOver 39.0-113-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 39.0 here against 39.5 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Browns +9
should be Browns +7 · getting 2 pts · was +6.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 7. 2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Buccaneers by 9TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey
Buccaneers by 26.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Buccaneers by 72 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Browns. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Buccaneers by 7opened Buccaneers by 9now Buccaneers by 9Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM, Over -115
The Four
Massey
44.33.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.33.3 pts over the market
Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.3opened 41now 41Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
TOM-9 -10541 -115-420+310
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢41.5 -107 50¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9 +10341 -116-411+330
All 14 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
TOM-9 -10541 -115-420+310
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢41.5 -107 50¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-8 -11041 -108-425+320
BetOnline.ag-9 -10541 -115-420+330
BetRivers-8 -11241 -110-455+340
BetUS-9 +10041 -110-420+330
Bovada-8 -11041.5 -110-430+320
Caesars-8.5 -10940.5 -120-420+325
DraftKings-8.5 -11040.5 -115-375+295
Fanatics-8 -11041.5 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -10440.5 -110-460+360
LowVig.ag-9 +10141 -113-420+330
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11041 -110-461+320
Pinnacle-9 +10341 -116-411+330

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Browns to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Browns).

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBuccaneers by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey-2.0-130
Market (12 books)-9.0-402
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.044.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.0-115-151+6.6%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+310+236priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.0-115-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-12 12:03.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.8 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -346 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Saints +9
should be Saints +7 · getting 2 pts · was +7.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 7. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 9TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey
Ravens by 36.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ravens by 71.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Saints. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 7opened Ravens by 9now Ravens by 9Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
Massey
47.50.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.50.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.5opened 47now 47Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
TOM-9 -10547 -110-425+315
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢46.5 -116 52¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9 +10247.5 +100-412+331
All 14 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
TOM-9 -10547 -110-425+315
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢46.5 -116 52¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-8.5 -10847 -110-425+320
BetOnline.ag-9 -10547 -110-425+334
BetRivers-8 -11347.5 -109-455+340
BetUS-9 +10047 -110-425+333
Bovada-8 -11047 -110-430+320
Caesars-8.5 -10947 -110-440+330
DraftKings-8.5 -11047.5 -102-360+285
Fanatics-8 -11047 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -10547.5 -105-450+350
LowVig.ag-9 +10047 -107-425+334
MyBookie.ag-9 -11047 -110-450+310
Pinnacle-9 +10247.5 +100-412+331

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +9.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Saints to win · +315 at TOM
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 78°F, 29% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from Saints, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Also out: Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints).

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -407 here against -346 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPIhasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey-3.0-141
Market (12 books)-9.0-407
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.047.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +9.0-115-147+6.0%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+315+242priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 47.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus; moneyline -407 here against -346 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm
Cardinals +4
should be Cardinals +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +6
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →
Market
Seahawks by 4TOM, -109
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals's last game
Massey
Cardinals by 48 pts our side
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 2.51.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Cardinals. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 2.5opened Seahawks by 4now Seahawks by 4Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM, Over -115
The Four
Massey
44.83.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.83.8 pts over the market
Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.8opened 40.5now 41Mon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Cardinals spreadTotal (over)Cardinals MLSeahawks ML
TOM+4 -10941 -115+170-210
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢41.5 -103 49¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+4 -10241 -109+182-210
All 13 books
Cardinals spreadTotal (over)Cardinals MLSeahawks ML
TOM+4 -10941 -115+170-210
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢41.5 -103 49¢-229 68¢
BetMGM+4.5 -11241 -115+185-225
BetOnline.ag+4 -10941 -115+180-210
BetRivers+4.5 -10941 -113+200-250
BetUS+4 -11041 -110+180-210
Bovada+4 -10541 -110+180-220
Caesars+4 -10741.5 -105+183-218
DraftKings+4.5 -11541.5 -110+185-225
FanDuel+4.5 -10541.5 -105+198-240
LowVig.ag+4 -10441 -113+180-210
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -110+177-232
Pinnacle+4 -10241 -109+182-210

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +4.0 · -109 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Cardinals to win · +170 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cardinals loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 3.8 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +4.0 · -109 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.9 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Kaleb Proctor (DT, Cardinals).

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
FPIhasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals's last game
Massey-4.0-122
Market (11 books)+4.0+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.044.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineArizona Cardinals ML+170+132+6.0%
SpreadArizona Cardinals +4.0-109-138+5.9%
TotalOver 41.0-115-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Jets +3.5
should be Jets +2 · getting 1.5 pts · was +5.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 2. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →
Market
Packers by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Massey
Jets by 25.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Packers by 21.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Jets. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 2opened Packers by 3.5now Packers by 3.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45TOM
The Four
Massey
46.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.71.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.7opened 45now 45Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
TOM+3.5 -11045 -107+162-192
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+4 -11645 -104+166-190
All 14 books
Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
TOM+3.5 -11045 -107+162-192
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
BetMGM+3.5 -10844.5 -112+170-210
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11045 -107+167-192
BetRivers+4 -11244.5 -109+175-215
BetUS+3.5 -11044.5 -110+163-190
Bovada+3.5 -11044.5 -115+165-195
Caesars+3.5 -10844.5 -114+166-200
DraftKings+4.5 -11244.5 -112+185-225
Fanatics+3.5 -10544.5 -110+170-205
FanDuel+4.5 -12044.5 -110+168-200
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10545 -104+167-192
MyBookie.ag44.5 -110+165-216
Pinnacle+4 -11645 -104+166-190

Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Jets to win · +162 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Jets loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM
Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.6 toward Jets, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
FPIhasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Massey-2.0-130
Market (12 books)+3.5+169
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.046.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNew York Jets ML+162+124+6.4%
SpreadNew York Jets +3.5-110-138+5.6%
TotalOver 45.0-107-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward New York Jets since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
Raiders +7
should be Raiders +6 · getting 1 pt · was +9.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 7, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 7TOM, -106
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Massey
Chargers by 1.55.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Chargers by 61.1 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Raiders. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 6opened Chargers by 6.5now Chargers by 7Mon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Raiders's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
39.34.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.34.2 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.3opened 44now 43.5Mon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLRaiders ML
TOM-7 -10643.5 -110-325+250
Pinnacle-7 -10344 -101-317+263
All 12 books
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLRaiders ML
TOM-7 -10643.5 -110-325+250
BetMGM-7 -10543.5 -108-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -10643.5 -110-325+263
BetRivers-7 -11443.5 -109-360+280
BetUS-7 -10543.5 -110-325+265
Bovada-7 -10543.5 -110-320+260
Caesars-7 -10743.5 -113-325+260
DraftKings-7 -10543.5 -110-310+250
FanDuel-7 -11243.5 -110-340+275
LowVig.ag-7 -10143.5 -107-325+263
MyBookie.ag-7 -11043.5 -110-350+250
Pinnacle-7 -10344 -101-317+263

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +7.0 · -114 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Raiders to win · +250 at TOM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Raiders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 39. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +7.0 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers) and 1 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -311 here against -277 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Massey-1.5-123
Market (11 books)-7.0-311
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.539.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +7.0-114-137+4.5%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+250+206+4.1%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline -311 here against -277 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm
No bet
market says 49ers by 13.5, our data says 49ers by 10.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 10.5, but the raw ratings sit 10 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 13.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey
49ers by 310.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
49ers by 10.53.1 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Dolphins. The Nasty Number is 3.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 10 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 10.5opened 49ers by 13now 49ers by 13.5Mon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Dolphins's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45TOM
The Four
Massey
45on the market
Nasty Number
45on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45opened 45now 45Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLDolphins ML
TOM-13.5 -10545 -110
Kalshi-12.5 -121 53¢45.5 -116 52¢-869 89¢+685 12¢
Pinnacle-13 -10645.5 -108-1000+677
All 13 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLDolphins ML
TOM-13.5 -10545 -110
Kalshi-12.5 -121 53¢45.5 -116 52¢-869 89¢+685 12¢
BetMGM-13.5 -10845.5 -108-900+650
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -10545 -110-950+637
BetRivers-13.5 -11045.5 -109-1115+650
BetUS-13.5 -10545 -110-950+630
Bovada-13 -11045.5 -110-1100+650
Caesars-13.5 -10545.5 -112-950+600
DraftKings-13.5 -10545.5 -108-1000+650
FanDuel-13.5 -10445.5 -115-950+640
LowVig.ag-13.5 +10045 -107-950+637
MyBookie.ag-13 -110-1000+570
Pinnacle-13 -10645.5 -108-1000+677

Marked: best for Dolphins, higher payout on each moneyline.

Dolphins +13.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Dolphins to win · +645
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $375 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Nate Hobbs (CB, 49ers), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
FPIhasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey-3.0-145
Market (11 books)-13.5-686
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.045.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami Dolphins +13.5-115-136+4.2%
MoneylineMiami Dolphins ML+645+372priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pm
Colts +6.5
should be Colts +6 · getting 0.5 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 6.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Massey
Chiefs by 33.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 60.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Colts. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 6opened Chiefs by 6.5now Chiefs by 6.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5TOM
The Four
Massey
47.80.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.80.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.8opened 47.5now 47.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-6.5 -11047.5 -110-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -107 50¢47.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11047.5 -110-300+245
All 11 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-6.5 -11047.5 -110-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -107 50¢47.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
BetMGM48 -108-300+240
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11047.5 -110-300+245
BetRivers-6.5 -10947.5 -109-295+230
BetUS-6.5 -11047.5 -110-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -10947.5 -120-290+235
DraftKings-6.5 -11048.5 -110-290+235
FanDuel-6.5 -10447.5 -118-290+235
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10547.5 -107-300+245
MyBookie.ag-290+214

Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +6.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +240 at TOM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Colts loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +6.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 4 more.

TOM: moneyline -287 here against -251 consensus.

Kansas City Chiefs has had 23 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
FPIhasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Massey-3.0-134
Market (9 books)-6.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.547.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+240+204+3.5%
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +6.5-110-122+2.6%
TotalOver 47.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline -287 here against -251 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Steelers +5.5
should be Steelers +4.5 · getting 1 pt · was +4.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →
Market
Patriots by 5.5TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots's last game
Massey
Patriots by 23.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Patriots by 4.51 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Patriots by 4.5opened Patriots by 5.5now Patriots by 5.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41.5TOM
The Four
Massey
401.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
401.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40opened 42now 41.5Mon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
TOM-5.5 -10741.5 -105-240+190
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢41.5 -121 53¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10242 -108-236+203
All 14 books
Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
TOM-5.5 -10741.5 -105-240+190
Kalshi-5.5 -103 49¢41.5 -121 53¢-239 69¢+189 33¢
BetMGM-5 -11041.5 -110-235+195
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10741.5 -105-240+200
BetRivers-5.5 -11342 -108-230+185
BetUS-5 -11041.5 -110-240+203
Bovada-5 -11042 -110-240+200
Caesars-5.5 -10941.5 -117-235+194
DraftKings-5.5 -11041.5 -115-238+195
Fanatics-5 -11042 -110-245+200
FanDuel-4.5 -11842.5 -105-245+200
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10241.5 -102-240+200
MyBookie.ag42 -110-246+186
Pinnacle-5.5 -10242 -108-236+203

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +5.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +190 at TOM
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.
Not Nasty
the Under 41.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Steelers +5.5 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 4 more.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onPatriots by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots's last game
Massey-2.0-126
Market (12 books)-5.5-230
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.540.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+190+173+2.2%
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +5.5-113-123+2.1%
TotalUnder 41.5-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.9 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Vikings +5.5
should be Vikings +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 5.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Massey
Bears by 23.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bears by 50.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Vikings. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 5opened Bears by 5.5now Bears by 5.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
Massey
50.30.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.30.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 49.5now 49.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
TOM-5.5 -11049.5 -105-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢49.5 -103 49¢-239 69¢
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11049.5 -105-250+207
All 12 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
TOM-5.5 -11049.5 -105-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢49.5 -103 49¢-239 69¢
BetMGM-5.5 -11049 -112-250+200
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11049.5 -105-250+207
BetRivers-5.5 -10949.5 -109-275+210
BetUS-6 +10049.5 -105-250+210
Caesars-5.5 -10949.5 -109-245+200
DraftKings-5.5 -11049.5 -108-245+200
Fanatics-5.5 -11049 -110-245+200
FanDuel-5.5 -10849.5 -106-245+200
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10549.5 -102-250+207
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11049.5 -110-242+184

Marked: best for Vikings, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings +5.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Vikings to win · +195 at TOM
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vikings +5.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 2.5 away from Vikings, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
FPIhasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Massey-2.0-126
Market (10 books)-5.5-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.550.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML+195+179+2.0%
SpreadMinnesota Vikings +5.5-110-119+1.9%
TotalOver 49.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Chicago Bears since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 3.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm
Over 50.5
should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Cowboys by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Massey
Cowboys by 21.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 30.3 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Commanders. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 3opened Cowboys by 3now Cowboys by 3.5Mon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Commanders's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
52.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.92.4 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 50.5now 50.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
TOM-3.5 -11050.5 -110-195+165
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+166 36¢
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11050.5 -110-195+170
All 11 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
TOM-3.5 -11050.5 -110-195+165
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+166 36¢
BetMGM-3.5 -11050.5 -112-200+165
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11050.5 -110-195+170
BetRivers-3.5 -11250 -112-195+148
BetUS-3.5 -11050.5 -110-195+167
Caesars-3.5 -11150.5 -112-197+164
DraftKings-3.5 -11250.5 -108-192+160
FanDuel-3.5 -11550.5 -115-205+172
LowVig.ag-3.5 -10550.5 -107-195+170
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11050.5 -110-202+156

Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Commanders to win · +165 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 53. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
FPIhasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Massey-2.0-126
Market (9 books)-3.5-187
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineWashington Commanders ML+165+147+2.8%
SpreadWashington Commanders +3.5-110-117+1.6%
TotalOver 50.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 09-12 15:27; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Over 44
should be 45.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 43
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →
Market
Panthers by 1TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Massey
Falcons by 2.53.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
a pick'em1 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Falcons. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number a pick'emopened Panthers by 2now Panthers by 1Mon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
49.35.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.35.3 pts over the market
Over 44 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 44now 44Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
TOM+1 -10444 -110+102-122
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -103 49¢+105 47¢-121 53¢
BetOnline.ag+1 -10444 -110+102-122
All 12 books
Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
TOM+1 -10444 -110+102-122
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -103 49¢+105 47¢-121 53¢
BetMGM+1.5 -11044 -108+100-120
BetOnline.ag+1 -10444 -110+102-122
BetRivers+1 -10844 -112+100-120
BetUSPK +10044 -110
Caesars+1.5 -11044 -110+103-121
DraftKings+1.5 -11243.5 -118+105-125
Fanatics+1.5 -11044 -110+100-120
FanDuel+1.5 -11244.5 -105+104-122
LowVig.ag+1 +10144 -107+102-122
MyBookie.ag+1 -110-108-118

Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +1.0 · -104 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · +102 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49. That's 5.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers -1.5, only $441 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers) and 1 more.

Full detail
We settle ona pick'em30% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
FPIhasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Massey-2.5-132
Market (10 books)+1.0+107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.049.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +1.0-104-106+0.5%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+102+100+0.5%
TotalOver 44.0-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Over 46.5
should be 47.5 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 3TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Massey
Texans by 2
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2.5opened Texans by 3now Texans by 3Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
51.44.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.44.9 pts over the market
Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.4opened 46.5now 46.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
TOM-3 -10546.5 -110-155+130
Kalshi-3.5 +109 46¢46.5 -112 51¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Pinnacle-3 -10247 -101-163+144
All 14 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
TOM-3 -10546.5 -110-155+130
Kalshi-3.5 +109 46¢46.5 -112 51¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
BetMGM-3 -10546.5 -110-155+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -10546.5 -110-155+135
BetRivers-3 -10647 -109-155+128
BetUS-3 -10546.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -10546.5 -110-165+140
Caesars-3 -10546.5 -112-157+132
DraftKings-3 -10546.5 -108-148+124
Fanatics-3 -10546.5 -110-165+135
FanDuel-3 -10246.5 -115-154+130
LowVig.ag-3 +10046.5 -107-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 -11046.5 -110-161+125
Pinnacle-3 -10247 -101-163+144

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +3.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · +130 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 51. That's 4.9 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
FPIhasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.551.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals +3.0-115-105-2.2%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML+130+139-1.7%
TotalOver 46.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
No bet
market says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 3, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Broncos by 3TOM, -103
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Massey
Broncos by 2.5
Nasty Number
Broncos by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Broncos by 3opened Broncos by 3now Broncos by 3Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
Massey
440.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
440.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44opened 44.5now 44.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
TOM-3 -10344.5 -110-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢44.5+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -10344.5 -113-140+120
All 11 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
TOM-3 -10344.5 -110-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢44.5+118 44¢
BetMGM-2.5 -11844.5 -110-145+120
BetOnline.ag-3 -10344.5 -113-140+120
BetRivers-2.5 -11744.5 -109-148+123
BetUS-3 -11044.5 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11744.5 -112-148+125
DraftKings-2.5 -11844.5 -115-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -11544.5 -110-142+120
LowVig.ag-3 +10244.5 -110-140+120
MyBookie.ag-3 -11044.5 -110-152+119

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -117 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +120 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $100 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $224 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

Denver Broncos has had 22 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.

Full detail
We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
FPIhasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Massey-2.5-125
Market (9 books)-3.0-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.544.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +3.0-117-103-3.2%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+120+142-4.2%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Mon Sep 21

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams
NFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pm
Giants +7
should be Giants +6 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 6. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →
Market
Rams by 7TOM, -114
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New York Giants's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New York Giants's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey
Rams by 24.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Rams by 61 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Giants. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 6opened Rams by 7now Rams by 7Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
Massey
471.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
471.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 48.5now 48.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-7 -11448.5 -107-335+260
Kalshi-340 76¢
BetOnline.ag-7 -11449 -108-340+274
All 11 books
Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-7 -11448.5 -107-335+260
Kalshi-340 76¢
BetMGM-7 -11248.5 -108-350+280
BetOnline.ag-7 -11449 -108-340+274
BetRivers-7 -11548.5 -109-400+300
BetUS-7 -11548.5 -110-340+275
Caesars-7 -11748.5 -112-360+280
DraftKings-7 -11548.5 -108-345+275
FanDuel-7.5 -10248.5 -106-370+295
LowVig.ag-7 -10949 -105-340+274
MyBookie.ag-7 -11048.5 -110-360+260

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +7.0 · -106 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Giants to win · +260 at TOM
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Giants loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 48.5 · -113 at TOM
Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +7.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Giants, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Jarrick Bernard-Converse (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New York Giants's last game
FPIhasn't seen New York Giants's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey-2.0-127
Market (9 books)-7.0-321
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +7.0-106-135+6.1%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+260+208+4.7%
TotalUnder 48.5-113-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-1+0.78 units · +26% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+1.5 ptsbeat the close on 3 of 4 posted picks
Open0calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games

Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game

Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty11-1248%-1.99 units23 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

11-12 · -1.99 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick2-166.7%+0.8 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty0-10.0%-1.0 usmall sample
A Little Nasty11-1247.8%-2.0 u
Not Nasty72 gamesno call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.44Sides: pts vs close, 11 bets, beat it 55%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 3 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 1 of 3 moved our way, average +0.1 points, and the full board kept the side 1 time, flipped it 0, went quiet 2. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
Houston at Texas TechOver 52.652.653+0.4no call
Miami (OH) at CincinnatiCincinnati -14.5-14.5-14.5+0.0no call
Virginia Tech at MarylandMaryland +333+0.0same side
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

91 priced · 26 a little nasty · audit: 1 problem

The audit found 1 problem at Mon 2:17pm. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. page: a total printed as 52.6, not to the half point

We read 91 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 19 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 2:01pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 4.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecockstoward Mississippi State Bulldogsagainst the public
  • → 2.6Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiderstoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
  • → 2.3Temple Owls at Toledo Rocketstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
  • → 2.0Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owlstoward Florida International Panthersagainst the public
  • → 1.9James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecstoward San Diego State Aztecswith the public
  • → 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
11.03Points off per game at that weight
11.03The market on its own
105Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
FPI5310.38
The market10511.03
SP+5311.39
Sagarin9413.48

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.546-5745%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 461233 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.14 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi791.90
DraftKings1911.40
LowVig.ag1741.31
BetOnline.ag1801.29
Caesars1591.28
FanDuel2361.14
Fanatics1501.13
BetRivers2131.12
BetMGM1791.05
MyBookie.ag1440.96
Bovada1750.95
TOM1760.93
BetUS1430.92
Pinnacle1740.88

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated yesterday
  • FPI NFL updated yesterday
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated 5 days ago
  • Sagarin updated yesterday
  • Sagarin NFL updated 6 days ago
  • nfelo updated yesterday
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Built 2:17 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 12713.