Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +10.5-108 at DraftKings+3.8%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +8.5 -110. Now UCF +10.5 -108, 2 points better. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+10.5 open Sunnow +10.5Nasty Number +8Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +3.550¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions+3.4%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Wed 3:29pm. Still on the board: DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in). All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+4 open Sunnow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5San Diego State at Oregon StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsSan Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Wed 7:49amStill a playSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -105 at Caesars, 1.5 points better than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amDon't chaseSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted UNLV +3 +100 at TOM on Tuesday; now UNLV +2.5 · -102 at FanDuel. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from +100 to -102, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3, you're set. It's a play again at +3 +100 or better.
Buck's Take
Four Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: UCF +10.5, Texas A&M +3.5, San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel and UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Read the receipt before you bet it.
Colts at Steelers, Colts +3. Every system has a pick'em; the market has Steelers by 2.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
Broncos at Chargers, Chargers +3.5. Every system has Broncos by 1; the market has Broncos by 3.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is NC State +3.5 (Wake Forest at NC State) at 4.4% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio to win, 2 points our way since the open.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: UCF at Oklahoma State, UCF +10.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M to win+150 at DraftKings+3.6%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Damn Near Nasty
3 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
3 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Chargers): BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (1.7%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +3 at -118 (2.3%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (1.6%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.2%) · Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +105 (2.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.6%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%).Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -120 costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than +105. The price wins.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio to win. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the line has moved 2 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Misses the Cut: needs 4.5% after the price.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Ohio to win): Kalshi 54¢ (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (2.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics -130 (2.1%) · BetMGM or TOM -135 (1.2%) · Caesars -137 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (NC State): Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (4.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (3.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -120 (2.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -121 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.0%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Oregon): TOM -10 at -112 (0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -10.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars -10.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (California): TOM +9.5 at +102 (1.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars +10 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.2%).Points or price: +10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +9.5 (the games that land on 10); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): BetMGM or TOM -175 (0.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics -179 (0.3%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings -185 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -194 (64¢ on the app) (-1.5%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (South Carolina): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars +11 at -107 (1.5%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (0.9%) · Fanatics or TOM +11 at -110 (0.8%) · BetMGM +11.5 at -115 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.5%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars or TOM +9.5 at -112 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.1 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Giants): Caesars +3.5 at -106 (1.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (1.0%) · TOM +4 at -116 (0.7%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +3.5 (the games that land on 4); -116 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -106. The price wins.Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
Totals, on their own, ranked by edge. Two numbers read every total: the model (each team's pace, efficiency and scoring this season, the weather and the market, fitted on four seasons) and the pace number (plays times points per play). College posts when the total opens 2 or more off the model with the pace number on the same side, or 3 off either alone; the read is good for about 12 hours, and the market has usually closed most of it by then. The NFL posts when the model sits 4 or more off the market, any day of the week; it is the newest number here with the shortest record. Team totals and first-half totals read the pace number at 3 points scaled to their size. The edge is the backtest's win chance on a gap that size less what the price costs: low single digits at best, and the ranking is the point. Each one is posted at the number shown and graded there, in its own record. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
Moved closer since the 6:25pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 6:25pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Syracuse at Virginia tomorrow 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Syracuse +12.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -8.5 to +11.5; the price from -113 to -105; the market drifted 1.4 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Arizona at West Virginia tomorrow 11:00am · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Arizona -3.5: 3.9 cents short at today's line, was 28.9.The price from +101 to -105. - Colorado State at Texas State Thu 15 Oct, 7:00pm · Waiting now
A Little Nasty at Colorado State +14.0: 2.0 points away, was out of reach.The line went from +12.5 to +12.0.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Tomorrow
46 gamesBest: Texas A&M +3.5, NastiestTexas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB tomorrow 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +2.5 · getting 1 pt · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions · was +1NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Posted Wednesday at Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in). Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 49 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 49 -113 | -178 | +153 |
All 23 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 49 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 49 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 49 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 49 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -182 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -170 | +144 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 49.5 -114 | -170 | +140 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -102 | 49 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 49 -113 | -178 | +153 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 49.5 -104 | -163 | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +150 | +129 | +3.6% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amUCF +10.5should be UCF +8 · getting 2.5 pts · -108 at DraftKings · was +9.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +10.5 · -108 at DraftKings, 2 points better, 2 cents better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 10, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 8.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 53 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 53 -113 | -414 | +321 |
All 23 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 53 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -420 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 | -425 | +325 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -105 | 53 -115 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -420 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 53.5 -113 | -435 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -10 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -440 | +330 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 54.5 -106 | -365 | +285 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -435 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -101 | 53 -114 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 53 -113 | -414 | +321 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +108 | 53.5 -104 | -376 | +355 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -137 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -171 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +10.5 | -108 | -126 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +355 | +287 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -105 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB tomorrow 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBet it · now San Diego State +16 · -105 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called at +14.5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -105 at Caesars, 1.5 points better than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oregon State by 16, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 14.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -104 | 53 -105 | -726 | +503 |
All 23 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -16 -108 | 52.5 -113 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -16 -110 | 53 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| BetMGM | -16.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -16 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -750 | +534 |
| betPARX | -16 -108 | 52.5 -113 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -16 -110 | 52.5 -114 | -910 | +540 |
| BetUS | -16 -110 | 52 -110 | -750 | +530 |
| Bovada | -16 -110 | 53 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -16 -115 | 53.5 -106 | -800 | +525 |
| Courtside | -16.5 -106 | 52.5 -110 | -715 | +545 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -750 | +525 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 14¢ +525 all-in |
| Fanatics | -16 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -118 | 53.5 -110 | -880 | +580 |
| Fliff | -16.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -835 | +535 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -16 -106 | 53.5 -103 | -750 | +534 |
| MyBookie.ag | -16 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -800 | +530 |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -104 | 53 -105 | -726 | +503 |
| Polymarket | -16.5 +104 | 53.5 +104 | -614 | +567 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -16.5. The market has moved 1.6 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +16.5.
TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.3 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -369 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (19 books) | -16.0 | -669 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +16.0 | -105 | -116 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +580 | +491 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -115 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.3 consensus; total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUNLV +3 +100 at TOMDon't chase · now UNLV +2.5 · -102 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called at +3 +100Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted UNLV +3 +100 at TOM on Tuesday; now UNLV +2.5 · -102 at FanDuel. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from +100 to -102, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3, you're set. It's a play again at +3 +100 or better. Market says North Dakota State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -114 | 48 -107 | +114 | -134 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 48 -101 | +114 | -131 |
All 23 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -114 | 48 -107 | +114 | -134 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -118 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -114 | 48 -107 | +114 | -134 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +112 | -137 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 48 -108 | +117 | -137 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 47.5 -118 | +118 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -125 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +113 | -138 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 48 -101 | +114 | -131 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 47.5 | +122 | -127 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +2.5, only $245 available; Over 47.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +2.5 | -102 | -105 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +114 | +116 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -107 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amNC State +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at Kalshi · was +2A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -125 | 58.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -126 54¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 58.5 -105 | +138 | -160 |
All 23 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -125 | 58.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -126 54¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -104 | 58.5 -112 | +145 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -125 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3 -104 | 58.5 -112 | +145 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -120 | 58.5 -113 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -121 | 58.5 -109 | +142 | -170 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -120 | 58.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -120 | 58.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 58.5 -105 | +130 | -156 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 58.5 -115 | +135 | -170 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -115 | 58.5 -108 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +132 | -163 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 58.5 -105 | +138 | -160 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 57.5 -113 | +150 | -156 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5, only $172 available; Under 57.5, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +181 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -110 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 59.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +145 | +121 | +4.5% |
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +3.5 | -112 | -133 | +4.4% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 4.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOhio to winMoved our way · 2 ptsour data says 59 in 100 · -126A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says Ohio by 2, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. At -126 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 46 -111 | -122 | +106 |
All 23 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -113 | 46.5 -110 | -132 | +107 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -113 | 46.5 -110 | -132 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -2 -114 | 46.5 -112 | -132 | +107 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2 -109 | 46 -110 | -137 | +116 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -106 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | -130 | +108 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | -135 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 46 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -132 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 46 -111 | -122 | +106 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 | 45.5 -113 | -122 | +117 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -120 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio to win · -126 (54¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -1.5, only $487 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -129 here against -117 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -115 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -270 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -126 | -142 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -2.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus; moneyline -129 here against -117 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmCalifornia +9.5should be California +8.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +13A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8.5. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -108 | 53 -110 | +301 | -383 |
All 23 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 +102 | 53 -110 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +10 -112 | 53.5 -112 | +295 | -400 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +295 | -390 |
| Caesars | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +10 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -395 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 +106 | 53 -108 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +301 | -403 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -108 | 53 -110 | +301 | -383 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -117 | 53.5 +100 | +317 | -335 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 +100 | 52.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.5 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 59°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +302 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +192 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +172 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.5 | +102 | -103 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +300 | +302 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB tomorrow 11:45amSouth Carolina +11should be South Carolina +10 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +15A Little Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 11, the Nasty Number says Florida by 10. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 62 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 58 -120 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -102 | 58.5 -117 | -491 | +369 |
All 23 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 58 -120 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -113 | 58.5 -108 | -500 | +370 |
| BetAnything | -11 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -110 | 58 -120 | -460 | +358 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -113 | 58.5 -108 | -500 | +370 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -113 | 58.5 -109 | -500 | +350 |
| BetUS | -11 -110 | 59 -110 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -490 | +355 |
| Caesars | -11 -113 | 58.5 -114 | -480 | +370 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -109 | 58.5 -113 | -454 | +371 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -470 | +360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 59 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -114 | -480 | +360 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -105 | 58.5 -120 | -495 | +355 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -106 | 58 -119 | -460 | +358 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 59 -110 | -459 | +334 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -102 | 58.5 -117 | -491 | +369 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -104 | 59.5 +100 | -426 | +400 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +11.0 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 87°F, 42% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 3.4 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 59.5, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Polymarket still has Florida -10.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida by 11.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -283 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -278 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.0 | -440 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +11.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +373 | +334 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -120 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus; total 58.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB tomorrow 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8 · getting 1.5 pts at Kalshi · was +10.5A Little Nasty · VanderbiltBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Vanderbilt. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -112 | 54 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 +105 47¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 55 -101 | +288 | -364 |
All 22 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -112 | 54 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 +105 47¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -108 | 55 -108 | +310 | -400 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -112 | 54 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -108 | 55 -108 | +310 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -109 | 55 -109 | +300 | -420 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +285 | -370 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -112 | 54.5 -109 | +285 | -360 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -108 | 54.5 -106 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | +280 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +275 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 55 -101 | +288 | -364 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +104 | 53.5 | +317 | -335 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -120 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +9.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward Vanderbilt, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +334 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +189 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +245 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -103 | -106 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +300 | +294 | priced at 25 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -105 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +334 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB tomorrow 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 64 in 100 · -175A Little Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Pittsburgh by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 4.5. At -175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -114 | 47 -110 | -186 | +159 |
All 23 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 47 -108 | -177 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 47 -108 | -177 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 47 -109 | -177 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 47 -112 | -179 | +151 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 46.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 47.5 -106 | -194 | +160 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 46.5 -125 | -190 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -200 | +161 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -114 | 47 -110 | -186 | +159 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 | -178 | +170 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 +100 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -175 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $172 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -303 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -309 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -175 | -182 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOregon -10Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Oregon -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -12.5A Little Nasty · OregonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Oregon. Market says Oregon by 10, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 11.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Oregon's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 57.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 58.5 -103 | -430 | +331 |
All 23 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 57.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -113 | 58 -113 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 58 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -112 | 57.5 -115 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -113 | 58 -113 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -11 -109 | 58 -114 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 58 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 58 -115 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -108 | 58 -110 | -440 | +330 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 58.5 -103 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -108 | 57.5 -115 | -410 | +315 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -115 | 57.5 -125 | -435 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -108 | 57.5 -114 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 58.5 -103 | -430 | +331 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 | 58.5 +108 | -400 | — |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon -10.0 · -112 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 53°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oregon, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -10.5, only $65 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -339 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -477 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -428 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -549 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -10.0 | -112 | -115 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -400 | -391 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus; total 57.5 here against 58.3 consensus.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB tomorrow 12:00pmEast Carolina -9.5should be East Carolina -10.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but East Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +109 46¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -112 | 46.5 -109 | -406 | +316 |
All 23 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +109 46¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -109 | 46.5 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -109 | 46.5 -112 | -455 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -112 | 46.5 -114 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -10 -109 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +295 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 46¢ +108 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -125 | 46.5 -120 | -405 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -408 | +303 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -112 | 46.5 -109 | -406 | +316 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +108 | 45.5 | -355 | — |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for East Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is East Carolina -9.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $281 available; Over 45.5, only $85 available; Rice Owls ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Kalshi has the total at 48.5 while Pinnacle is at 46.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but no price at the book.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -387 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -304 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -544 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -9.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -380 | -359 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUTEP +9should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UTEP's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -104 | 50 +101 | +293 | -372 |
All 23 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -112 | +295 | -400 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -112 | +295 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +295 | -400 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | +295 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -103 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +285 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -106 | 49.5 -103 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +301 | -403 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -104 | 50 +101 | +293 | -372 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +108 | 49.5 +104 | — | -335 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for UTEP, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $447 available; UTEP Miners ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +372 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +219 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +10.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +300 | +303 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.5 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB tomorrow 6:00pmCoastal Carolina +4should be Coastal Carolina +3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 4, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -112 | 57 -130 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -107 | 58.5 -114 | -195 | +167 |
All 23 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -112 | 57 -130 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5 -109 | 58.5 -112 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -112 | 57 -130 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -5 -109 | 58.5 -112 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5 -112 | 58.5 -113 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 58 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -4 -107 | 58.5 -114 | -179 | +151 |
| Courtside | -4 -110 | 58.5 -113 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4 -112 | 58.5 -115 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -184 | +150 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -110 | 60.5 +100 | -195 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -108 | 57 -130 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 58 -110 | -196 | +158 |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -107 | 58.5 -114 | -195 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -4.5 | 59.5 +108 | -178 | +170 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 63°F, 43% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Marshall). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd -4.5, only $92 available; Under 59.5, only $62 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.4 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -111 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -196 |
| Market (19 books) | -4.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 60.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +163 | +162 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.4 consensus; total 57.0 here against 58.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB tomorrow 9:30pmFresno State +6.5should be Fresno State +6.5 at TOM · was +8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -270 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +219 | -265 |
All 23 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -270 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +222 | -270 |
| betPARX | +7 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -110 | 48.5 -113 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| Bovada | +7 -120 | 48 -115 | +220 | -270 |
| Caesars | +7 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| Courtside | +7 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -108 | +220 | -275 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +215 | -280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +222 | -270 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +224 | -285 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +219 | -265 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +108 | 47.5 -117 | +233 | -245 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +105 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +6.5 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.6 toward Fresno State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +247 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Fresno State +7.5 while Pinnacle is at Boise State by 6.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +184 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.5 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5 | +105 | -101 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +223 | +211 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +247 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB tomorrow 11:00amNebraska +7.5should be Nebraska +7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Nebraska is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +266 26¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 +102 | 48.5 -102 | +279 | -350 |
All 23 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +266 26¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 48 -109 | +250 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -105 | 48 -103 | +260 | -320 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 48 -109 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +8 -114 | 48 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +250 | -300 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 48 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -108 | 48 -107 | +250 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -105 | 48.5 -106 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 47.5 -118 | +260 | -325 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +245 | -310 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -125 | +255 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -101 | 48 -101 | +260 | -320 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 +102 | 48.5 -102 | +279 | -350 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -104 | 47.5 | +285 | -300 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Nebraska, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward Nebraska, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Indiana Hoosiers -8.5, only $49 available; Over 47.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +256 here against +309 consensus.
Bovada still has Nebraska +9.0 while Pinnacle is at Indiana by 7.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +213 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +392 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | +270 | +261 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -103 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: moneyline +256 here against +309 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmSyracuse +11.5should be Syracuse +11 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 11. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Syracuse is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 49 -114 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -381 78¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -103 | 49 -118 | -450 | +344 |
All 23 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 49 -114 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -381 78¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetAnything | -11 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -460 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -135 | 49 -114 | -435 | +340 |
| betPARX | -11 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -11 -113 | 49.5 -112 | -560 | +380 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -11 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -460 | +340 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -420 | +330 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -426 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -440 | +340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -115 | 49.5 -112 | -465 | +350 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 49.5 -120 | -455 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -132 | 49 -113 | -435 | +340 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -490 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -103 | 49 -118 | -450 | +344 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -113 | 49.5 -104 | — | +355 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 2.8 away from Syracuse, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $197 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
DraftKings Predictions has the total at 51.5 while Pinnacle is at 49. Far enough off to be a pick, but 1.2% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -322 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -302 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -346 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.5 | -407 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +11.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +350 | +374 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -106 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB tomorrow 11:00amBowling Green to winour data says 76 in 100 · -290Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 9, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Bowling Green by 7 to Bowling Green by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 44 -105 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -290 73¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -316 | +256 |
All 23 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 44 -105 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -290 73¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 44.5 -106 | -345 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -325 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 44 -105 | -320 | +260 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 44.5 -106 | -345 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 44.5 -107 | -345 | +260 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -105 | 43.5 -106 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 43.5 -113 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | -345 | +270 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 43.5 -120 | -345 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 44 -103 | -320 | +260 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -318 | +244 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -316 | +256 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 | — | -285 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Bowling Green).
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -8.5, only $60 available; Over 43.5, only $120 available; Under 43.5, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -329 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -308 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -8.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB tomorrow 1:00pmMiami (OH) -4should be Miami (OH) -5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 4, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Miami (OH) by 2.5 to Miami (OH) by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 45 -101 | +167 | -196 |
All 23 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +160 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | — | 44.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +160 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +175 | -220 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 44.5 -104 | +164 | -200 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -103 | 44.5 -108 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 45 -101 | +167 | -196 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -104 | 43.5 | — | -186 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 44.5 +100 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Miami (OH)). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $5 available; Over 43.5, only $42 available; UMass Minutemen ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +162 here against +181 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +205 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +421 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -185 | -186 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -4.0 | -113 | -110 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Miami (OH) RedHawks since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 4.4.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus; total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus; moneyline +162 here against +181 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB tomorrow 2:30pmAkron +5should be Akron +4.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 5, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 52 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -109 | 52 -103 | +178 | -210 |
All 23 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 52 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -113 | 51.5 -109 | +180 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 52 -115 | +180 | -210 |
| betPARX | +6 -113 | 51.5 -109 | +180 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 51.5 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 52 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -106 | 52 -108 | +178 | -213 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 52.5 -104 | +172 | -210 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | +175 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +180 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 52 -114 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +182 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -109 | 52 -103 | +178 | -210 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 -104 | 51.5 | — | -203 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $58 available; Akron Zips ML, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +198 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +3.5 | +161 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +119 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +189 | +181 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +5.5 | -106 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -105 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +198 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB tomorrow 11:00amArizona -3.5should be Arizona -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 3 to Arizona by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 +101 48¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -107 | 61 -104 | +155 | -181 |
All 23 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 +101 48¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -105 | 60.5 -113 | +132 | -165 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3 -105 | 60.5 -113 | +132 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 60.5 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 60.5 -114 | +141 | -170 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 60.5 -113 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 60.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -114 | 60.5 -110 | +132 | -160 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 60.5 -125 | +135 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | +130 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -106 | 61.5 -103 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +146 | -181 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -107 | 61 -104 | +155 | -181 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 | +156 | -163 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 61.5 -105 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $477 available; Over 61.5, only $187 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +163 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +172 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -160 | -163 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.4.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.9 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +163 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB tomorrow 6:30pmLouisiana +3should be Louisiana +3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Louisiana is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -152 | +127 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -108 | -156 | +135 |
All 23 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -152 | +127 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 47.5 -105 | -152 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -152 | +132 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 47.5 -105 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -113 | 48 -108 | -152 | +128 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 47.5 -122 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 48.5 -102 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -104 | -152 | +126 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 47.5 -120 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -108 | -152 | +132 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -153 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -108 | -156 | +135 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | 47.5 -108 | -138 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 48.5 +100 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.4 away from Louisiana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $8 available; Under 47.5, only $72 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -185 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3.0 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +133 | +132 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmMichigan State +2.5should be Michigan State +2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -102 | +120 | -138 |
All 23 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -104 | 48 -112 | +120 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -104 | 48 -112 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 48 -113 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 48 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 48 -110 | +115 | -136 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 47.5 -113 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 47.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +114 | -137 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -125 | +115 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +104 | 48 -103 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +113 | -139 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -102 | +120 | -138 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 47.5 | +127 | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 75°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +120 | +120 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmHouston +2.5should be Houston +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Houston's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -133 | +116 |
All 23 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 55 -114 | -137 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 55 -114 | -137 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 55 -114 | -139 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 54.5 -122 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | -145 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -133 | +116 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 55.5 | — | +117 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 54.5 -120 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Houston, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $157 available; Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -202 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +115 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB tomorrow 6:30pmUnder 52weather: 13 mph wind and 78% chance of rain, worth about 2 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but James Madison is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -115 | 51 -110 | +253 | -312 |
All 23 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +230 | -295 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -116 | 52 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +230 | -295 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -117 | 51.5 -112 | +230 | -295 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -120 | 51 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -113 | 51.5 -108 | +250 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -108 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -114 | +230 | -285 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 51.5 -120 | +240 | -315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +230 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -112 | 52 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +244 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -115 | 51 -110 | +253 | -312 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 51.5 | — | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 51.5 +100 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 77°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from James Madison, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5, only $137 available; Over 51.5, only $9 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +283 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +327 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +308 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +527 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -285 | -288 | +0.2% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -104 | -104 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +283 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB tomorrow 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -114 | 48 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 48 -109 | -175 | +151 |
All 23 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -114 | 48 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -114 | 47.5 -112 | -190 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -114 | 48 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -4 -114 | 47.5 -112 | -190 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -115 | 47.5 -114 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 48 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -107 | 48 -114 | -164 | +139 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 47.5 -125 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 48 -109 | -175 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 47.5 -108 | -156 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.9 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Hard Rock Bet still has Tulane +4.5 while Pinnacle is at Army by 3.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -202 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -106 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +151 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB tomorrow 11:30amNorthwestern -35should be Northwestern -36.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -116 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -102 | 52.5 -117 | — | — |
All 22 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -116 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -35.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -35 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -116 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -35.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36 -105 | 52.5 -120 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -110 | 53.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | -35.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -35.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | 4¢ +1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | -35.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -104 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fliff | -35.5 -115 | 52.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -112 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -102 | 52.5 -117 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $289 available; Northwestern Wildcats -35.5, only $8 available; Ball State Cardinals +35.5, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -38.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -37.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (18 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -35.0 | -116 | -116 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -105 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 47.5weather: 18 mph wind and 70% chance of rain, worth about 3.8 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -382 | +300 |
All 23 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -360 | +270 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -360 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 47.5 -107 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -10 -110 | 47.5 -112 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 47.5 -110 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 47.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -114 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -120 | 47.5 -120 | -390 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 47.5 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -382 | +300 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 | 47.5 -104 | -335 | +317 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 54°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $142 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
DraftKings Predictions has the total at 45.5 while Pinnacle is at 47.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.0% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -328 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -306 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -133 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +300 | +312 | priced at 25 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB tomorrow 2:30pmToledo -18.5should be Toledo -19.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -19.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -112 | 55.5 -104 | -1127 | +698 |
All 23 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -19.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -19 -110 | 56 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1400 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1200 | +754 |
| betPARX | -19 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 55 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
| Caesars | -18.5 -109 | 55.5 -105 | -1250 | +750 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -19 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| Fliff | -19.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -1425 | +765 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -106 | 56 -108 | -1200 | +754 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1683 | +846 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -112 | 55.5 -104 | -1127 | +698 |
| Polymarket | -17.5 -117 | 55.5 +100 | -1011 | +900 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Buffalo).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -855 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1050 |
| Market (19 books) | -18.5 | -1035 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -18.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1200 | -856 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bulls since 10-04 10:17.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNorth Texas -28.5should be North Texas -28 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -114 | 58 -112 | — | — |
All 22 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -29 -110 | 58.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -29 -110 | 58.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -29 -112 | 58.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -28.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | — | 4¢ +1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 57.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| Fliff | -29.5 -105 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -29.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -114 | 58 -112 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $3 available; Under 57.5, only $155 available; North Texas Mean Green ML, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1973 |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -2294 |
| Massey | -26.5 | -2096 |
| Market (19 books) | -28.5 | -4205 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.5 | -105 | -109 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1838 | +2654 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB tomorrow 2:30pmGeorgia Tech +6.5should be Georgia Tech +6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Duke by 7 to Duke by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -120 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -126 54¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -112 | +202 | -242 |
All 23 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -120 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -126 54¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -120 | 43.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -120 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +7 -120 | 43.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +7 -120 | 43.5 -114 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -240 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +205 | -239 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | +184 | -225 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | +195 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -103 | 43.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +212 | -270 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -112 | +202 | -242 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 -104 | 43.5 -108 | +212 | -223 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 70°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +210 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +238 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +200 | +204 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -120 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 8.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB tomorrow 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 43.5 -105 | -622 | +446 |
All 23 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -14 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14 -107 | 43.5 -113 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -120 | 43 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -14 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -625 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -125 | 43.5 -115 | -655 | +445 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -657 | +436 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 43.5 -105 | -622 | +446 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 -117 | 43.5 | -567 | — |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $58 available; Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -810 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -608 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -640 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -118 | -118 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -528 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNavy -1should be Navy -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 1, the Nasty Number says Navy by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 2.5 to Navy by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -104 | 48 -110 | -125 | +109 |
All 23 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -109 | 47.5 -117 | -130 | +105 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| betPARX | -2 -109 | 47.5 -117 | -130 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 47.5 -118 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 48 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -127 | +108 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 48 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -130 | +108 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -130 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -127 | +104 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -104 | 48 -110 | -125 | +109 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -108 | — | -117 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 +100 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +1.5, only $7 available; Over 47.5, only $289 available; Under 47.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.1 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Navy -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Navy by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -221 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.0 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -1.0 | -117 | -106 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -120 | -112 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 5.4.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.1 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB tomorrow 2:30pmStanford +40.5should be Stanford +38 · getting 2.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 40.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 40.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | — | — |
All 22 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -39.5 -107 | 55 -107 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -40 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -39.5 -107 | 55 -107 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -39.5 -113 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -40 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -39.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -39.5 -108 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Courtside | -39.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -39.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -39.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -39.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -39.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Fliff | -39.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -39.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40.5 -106 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -40.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -39.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $169 available; Under 53.5, only $305 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -40.5 here against -39.6 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (18 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +40.5 | -110 | -133 | +4.8% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -40.5 here against -39.6 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB tomorrow 2:30pm · neutralTexas -7should be Texas -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 7, the Nasty Number says Texas by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas by 8 to Texas by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 41 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +105 | 39 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +251 | -309 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +105 | 39 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39 -108 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -105 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +100 | 39 -110 | +245 | -300 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -110 | 39 -108 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 39 -109 | +245 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7 +100 | 39 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -114 | 39 -110 | +255 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 38.5 -117 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -105 | +250 | -310 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 39.5 -115 | +245 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +104 | 39 -108 | +245 | -300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +261 | -342 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +251 | -309 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 38.5 -117 | +285 | -300 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +251 here against +287 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +304 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +462 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +267 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -7.0 | -125 | -115 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -300 | -278 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 39.0 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +287 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB tomorrow 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 54 -116 | -176 | +151 |
All 23 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -190 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -190 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -176 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 54.5 -120 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -103 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 54 -116 | -176 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | — | -170 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has UConn +4.5 while Pinnacle is at Temple by 3.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -134 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +150 | +156 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB tomorrow 3:15pmArkansas +13.5should be Arkansas +12.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 12.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 +105 47¢ | +456 17¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -101 | 51 -118 | +421 | -579 |
All 23 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 +105 47¢ | +456 17¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | +420 | -625 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +415 | -550 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | +420 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -107 | 51.5 -112 | +410 | -625 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +400 | -520 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +410 | -585 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -560 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -103 | 51.5 -103 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -550 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +400 | -580 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +425 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 51 -114 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -101 | 51 -118 | +421 | -579 |
| Polymarket | +13.5 +100 | 51.5 -104 | +456 | -488 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +514 consensus.
Kalshi has the total at 53.5 while Pinnacle is at 51. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +14.5 | +520 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +377 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +373 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +456 | +422 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +514 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB tomorrow 3:15pmOhio State -32.5should be Ohio State -32.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 32.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 32.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
All 22 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -33 -109 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -33 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | -33 -109 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -110 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -32.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -33.5 -107 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -33.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -32.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 47¢ +104 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| Fliff | -32.5 -120 | 56.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -32.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -32.5 -106 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -33 -110 | 57 -110 | — | +1700 |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $82 available; Under 55.5, only $75 available; Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $351 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -2309 |
| Massey | -32.0 | — |
| Market (19 books) | -32.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +33.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +3300 | +5560 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.
The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUnder 50.5weather: 20 mph wind and 80% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -113 | 50.5 -107 | +275 | -344 |
All 23 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -109 | 51 -108 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -109 | 51 -108 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -110 | 51 -109 | +295 | -420 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 50 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +8.5 -107 | 50.5 -114 | +275 | -345 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | +260 | -330 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +270 | -365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -101 | 50.5 -108 | +260 | -320 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +265 | -350 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -113 | 50.5 -107 | +275 | -344 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +104 | 49.5 | +285 | — |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 64°F, 80% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $61 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $228 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +256 here against +318 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +299 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +193 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +191 |
| Market (19 books) | +8.0 | +256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU Tigers -8.0 | -115 | -101 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers ML | -320 | -291 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.2 consensus; moneyline +256 here against +318 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB tomorrow 6:00pmMemphis -14.5should be Memphis -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 6.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -113 | 52 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -110 | 54 -108 | -674 | +474 |
All 23 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -113 | 52 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -108 | 54.5 -104 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -113 | 52 -125 | -625 | +461 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -108 | 54.5 -104 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -109 | 54.5 -106 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +465 |
| Bovada | -15 -110 | 54 -110 | -675 | +460 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -109 | 53.5 -107 | -675 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | -705 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -109 | 52 -124 | -625 | +461 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -699 | +470 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -110 | 54 -108 | -674 | +474 |
| Polymarket | -14.5 | 53.5 | -567 | +525 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 52.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 66°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Memphis Tigers -14.5, only $210 available; Over 53.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -20.0 | -893 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -746 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -744 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -602 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -660 | -551 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -125 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB tomorrow 6:30pmAir Force -7.5should be Air Force -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 46.5 -115 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | +252 27¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -104 | 47 -107 | +243 | -298 |
All 23 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 46.5 -115 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | +252 27¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -104 | +235 | -305 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -116 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -104 | +235 | -305 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -118 | 47.5 -105 | +235 | -305 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 47 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Caesars | +7 -106 | 46.5 -115 | +255 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7 -103 | 46.5 -113 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7 -105 | 46.5 -115 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 47 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | +255 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 46.5 -125 | +240 | -320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | +240 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -114 | +260 | -320 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +240 | -310 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -104 | 47 -107 | +243 | -298 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -117 | 47.5 | +257 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -125 | 47.5 -115 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.2 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +227 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +299 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5 | -116 | -102 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +245 | +271 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.2 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 51 -115 | -124 | +108 |
All 23 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -113 | 51 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 51 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -113 | 51 -108 | -127 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -114 | 51 -109 | -129 | +104 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 51 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -113 | 51.5 -105 | -122 | +104 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -103 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -114 | 51.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 51.5 -115 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -104 | 51.5 -103 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -126 | +103 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 51 -115 | -124 | +108 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 51.5 +100 | -122 | +117 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 5.2 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -117 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -2.0 | -108 | -100 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -118 | -116 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 3.7.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -123 | +103 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | -122 | +106 |
All 23 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -123 | +103 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -127 | +105 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -123 | +103 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -127 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -129 | +104 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -114 | -124 | +105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -105 | 54.5 -120 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 55 -103 | -123 | +103 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -123 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | -122 | +106 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 53.5 -117 | -117 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Penn State).
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Penn State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Penn State by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -120 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -176 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -123 | -118 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Penn State Nittany Lions since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB tomorrow 7:00pmMinnesota -2.5should be Minnesota -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -103 | 50 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 50.5 -103 | +122 | -140 |
All 23 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -103 | 50 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -103 | 50 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 49.5 -113 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 50 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -102 | 50 -108 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -106 | +114 | -137 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -125 | +110 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +101 | 50 -108 | +118 | -138 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 50.5 -103 | +122 | -140 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +104 | 49.5 -108 | — | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $187 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $158 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +180 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5 | -117 | -101 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -132 | -123 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB tomorrow 9:15pmUtah -14.5should be Utah -15.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -115 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -16 -105 | 51 -109 | -730 | +505 |
All 22 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -115 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -719 87¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -115 | 50 -120 | -650 | +476 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -113 | 51 -112 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -16 -110 | 51 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -15.5 -108 | 51 -112 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 -103 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -850 | +570 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -775 | +505 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | -750 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -16 -105 | 51 -109 | -730 | +505 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +104 | -614 | +567 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.7 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -559 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -373 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -738 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.5 | -651 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -15.5 | -104 | -101 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -750 | -564 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -120 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.7 consensus; total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB tomorrow 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -21 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 51 -102 | -1633 | +907 |
All 23 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 49.5 -115 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1900 | +1025 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -110 | -1750 | +961 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 49.5 -115 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -21 -112 | 49.5 -118 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +1000 |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +850 |
| Caesars | -21 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -118 | 50.5 -115 | -1800 | +920 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -125 | 50.5 -120 | -1945 | +910 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -1750 | +961 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 50 -110 | -1695 | +840 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 51 -102 | -1633 | +907 |
| Polymarket | -20.5 | 49.5 -117 | -1329 | +1150 |
| theScore Bet | -21.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5, only $97 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.5 | -507 |
| Sagarin | -21.5 | -1168 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -939 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1409 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 | -113 | -106 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils ML | -1681 | -1002 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 11
13 games3 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Colts at Steelers, Colts +3.0.Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5should be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 42 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 41.5 -114 | +171 | -196 |
All 25 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -108 | 42 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42 -113 | +150 | -182 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 42 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -108 | 42 -105 | +157 | -180 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -115 | 42 -113 | +150 | -182 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -108 | +150 | -182 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -105 | 42 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -113 | 42 -105 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 41.5 -113 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 41.5 -115 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -105 | +156 | -186 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -103 | 42 -102 | +157 | -180 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +155 | -193 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 41.5 -114 | +171 | -196 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +104 | 42.5 +104 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | +159 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Trey Lance (Chargers), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos) and 6 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +157 here against +179 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -108 | -120 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +160 | +147 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus; moneyline +157 here against +179 consensus.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmColts +3should be Colts +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Colts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 44 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 43.5 -106 | -149 | +132 |
All 26 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 44 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 44 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -125 | 43.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 43.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -144 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +103 | 44 -102 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -144 | +117 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 43.5 -106 | -149 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 42.5 -122 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 43.5 -109 | -146 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +3.0 · -118 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 65°F, 99% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colts, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Will Mallory (TE, Colts) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.
BetUS still has Steelers -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Steelers by 3.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +105 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +129 | +116 | +2.5% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | -118 | -129 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 10-05 08:06; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +3 at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. 49ers +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.1% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -125 | 46 -113 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 46 -106 | -178 | +156 |
All 26 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -125 | 46 -113 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 46.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -125 | 46 -113 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 46 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3 -115 | 46 -112 | -173 | +148 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 46 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3 -118 | 46.5 -105 | -174 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -121 | 46 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 46 -110 | -170 | +136 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +105 | 46 -106 | -178 | +156 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 46.5 +104 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 57°F.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -3.5, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Julian Neal (CB, Seahawks) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
DraftKings still has Seahawks -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 2.3% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +115 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | +105 | -104 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +145 | +144 | +0.2% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -113 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +4should be Giants +3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Commanders by 4, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 3. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Giants's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -104 | 42 -107 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +110 | 42 -104 | -177 | +155 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -104 | 42 -107 | -190 | +160 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -108 | 42 -109 | -182 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -104 | 42 -107 | -190 | +165 |
| betPARX | -4 -108 | 42 -109 | -182 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -4 -108 | 42 -109 | -182 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 42 -105 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 42 -107 | -190 | +157 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -113 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -112 | 42.5 -105 | -186 | +156 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 +104 | 42 -104 | -190 | +165 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -189 | +152 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +110 | 42 -104 | -177 | +155 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 +100 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +4.0 · -116 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 66°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants), Trey Amos (CB, Commanders) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -106 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -216 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | -4.0 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +4.0 | -116 | -119 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +160 | +157 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -113 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +3.5should be Ravens +2 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Ravens's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 44 -101 | -177 | +155 |
All 26 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -114 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -113 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -174 | +144 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +101 | 43.5 -113 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -181 | +147 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 44 -101 | -177 | +155 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -178 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Cam Jurgens (C, Ravens), Yasir Abdullah (LB, Falcons) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
MyBookie.ag still has Falcons -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Falcons by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +112 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -126 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +194 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +162 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | -115 | -145 | +5.7% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +150 | +121 | +5.2% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7.5should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.9 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42 -107 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +102 | -363 | +296 |
All 26 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42 -107 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -107 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -8 -105 | 42 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -108 | 42 -108 | -380 | +295 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -108 | 41.5 -112 | -395 | +310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -400 | +315 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -395 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 42 -104 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +102 | -363 | +296 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -104 | 42.5 +108 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.9 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), DeVonta Smith (WR, Eagles), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 6 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -179 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +315 | +270 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -107 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBengals -7should be Bengals -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 42 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -120 | 44 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +108 | 43.5 -112 | +281 | -342 |
All 26 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -120 | 44 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 43.5 -109 | +250 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +7 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 44 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 43.5 -109 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 43.5 -109 | +250 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 44 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Caesars | +7 -115 | 43.5 -109 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | +7 -108 | 43.5 -110 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +265 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +7 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Fliff | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +270 | -380 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -110 | 44 -107 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +259 | -336 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 +108 | 43.5 -112 | +281 | -342 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +108 | 44.5 +104 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +265 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -115 | 43.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Justin Joly (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Dolphins +7.5 while Pinnacle is at Bengals by 6.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +366 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +376 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +361 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +176 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | +100 | -111 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -330 | -314 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.8 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +7should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 7, the Nasty Number says Texans by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 38 -113 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 38.5 +101 48¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -116 | +291 | -355 |
All 26 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 38 -113 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 38.5 +101 48¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 37.5 -107 | +280 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 38 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 38 -110 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 38 -113 | +292 | -365 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 37.5 -107 | +280 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +7 -108 | 37.5 -107 | +280 | -360 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 38 -115 | +293 | -365 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 38 -110 | +285 | -370 |
| Caesars | +7 -106 | 38 -113 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +7 -106 | 37.5 -119 | +293 | -350 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 38.5 -105 | +285 | -360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 36.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -105 | 38 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7 -105 | 37.5 -118 | +295 | -370 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -115 | +300 | -435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +100 | 38 -110 | +292 | -365 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 38 -110 | +295 | -391 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -116 | +291 | -355 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -117 | 38.5 +113 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 37.5 -120 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F, 31% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +333 consensus.
DraftKings still has Texans -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.1% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +212 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +201 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +184 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +180 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 40.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +296 | +270 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.0 | -105 | -107 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -113 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +333 consensus.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBears -1should be Bears -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 1, the Nasty Number says Bears by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -101 | -119 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 46 -105 | +105 | -122 |
All 26 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -101 | -119 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -101 | -119 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +1 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +104 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -118 | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -105 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -103 | 45.5 -110 | -101 | -119 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +102 | -124 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -102 | 46 -105 | +105 | -122 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -104 | 46.5 +108 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +104 | -122 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Bears).
QB questionable: Caleb Williams (Bears), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Kyle Monangai (RB, Bears), Savion Williams (WR, Packers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 4 more.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +178 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +103 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -1.0 | -112 | -103 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -119 | -109 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 2. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 40 +100 | -138 | +123 |
All 26 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 40 -113 | -139 | +115 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -125 | 39.5 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 40 -113 | -139 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 40 -113 | -139 | +115 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 39.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -106 | 39.5 -115 | -150 | +122 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -120 | 39.5 -115 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -107 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 40 +100 | -138 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 40.5 +113 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 39.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F, 45% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jets).
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), Tylan Wallace (WR, Browns), Carsen Ryan (TE, Browns) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -103 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 39.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -125 | -111 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -137 | -117 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 10-05 08:06.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -114 | -183 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +104 | 45 -109 | -187 | +164 |
All 26 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -114 | -183 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -200 | +160 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -114 | -183 | +160 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -115 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -118 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -195 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -103 | 45 -112 | -183 | +160 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -198 | +159 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +104 | 45 -109 | -187 | +164 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 +104 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -193 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 +100 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jalen Nailor (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -210 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -190 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -184 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -175 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -183 | -181 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -106 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -1should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. 1.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +105 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 +101 | 42 +100 | +124 | -139 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +105 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 41.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 41.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +105 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 41.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 41.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetUS | +1 +105 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -113 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -104 | +116 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -107 | 42 -107 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +117 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2 +101 | 42 +100 | +124 | -139 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | 41.5 -104 | — | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | +119 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -2.5, only $427 available; Under 41.5, only $70 available; New Orleans Saints ML, only $236 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Christian Darrisaw (OT, Vikings), Jeremiah Wright (G, Saints) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +141 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +213 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.0 | -125 | -122 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -134 | -129 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5.5should be Lions -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -111 | 54.5 -105 | +206 | -240 |
All 26 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +217 30¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 54 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -108 | +198 | -245 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -107 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +192 | -242 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -111 | 54.5 -105 | +206 | -240 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 +100 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -255 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.5 | +259 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +220 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +250 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +127 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.5 | +214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -5.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -235 | -222 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmBills +3should be Bills +3 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -118 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 54.5 -101 | -173 | +152 |
All 26 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -118 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 +102 | 54 -112 | -167 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -125 | 54.5 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -118 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 +102 | 54 -112 | -167 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3 -120 | 54 -112 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 54 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -112 | -176 | +147 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -116 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 54.5 -118 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 54.5 -110 | -178 | +150 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +105 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -115 | 54.5 -107 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 54.5 -110 | -174 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 54.5 -101 | -173 | +152 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 54.5 +100 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | -168 | +142 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills +3.0 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Bills, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $17 available; Under 54.5, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -114 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -102 | -106 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +145 | +141 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 10-05 08:06; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tue Oct 13
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersDelaware at Middle TennesseeCFB Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pmDelaware +1.5should be Delaware -2 · getting 3.5 pts at FanDuel · was +1.5A Little Nasty · Delaware, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -112 51¢ |
All 6 books
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -112 51¢ |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +100 | -116 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -118 | -102 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -115 | -110 |
Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 2.2 toward Delaware, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -1.5, only $143 available; Delaware Blue Hens +1.5, only $52 available; Over 48.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +4.0 | +168 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +195 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -114 |
| Market (4 books) | +1.0 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +1.5 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | -102 | -116 | +3.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 1.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksFlorida International at Jacksonville StateCFB Tue 13 Oct, 7:00pmJacksonville State to winour data says 62 in 100 · -151Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -112 | -156 | +130 |
| Fliff | — | 45.5 -120 | -155 | +125 |
Marked: best for Jacksonville State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State to win · -151. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.5, only $250 available; Florida International Panthers +3.5, only $185 available; Over 46.5, only $263 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| Massey | -5.5 | -193 |
| Market (4 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -151 | -164 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 10-08 13:15.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Oct 15
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Colorado State Rams at Texas State BobcatsColorado State at Texas StateCFB Thu 15 Oct, 7:00pmTexas State -12should be Texas State -12 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 5 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | -12.5 -103 | 67.5 -108 | -412 | +339 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -105 | 67.5 -110 | -425 | +330 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 54¢ -127 all-in | — | 82¢ -526 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -106 | 65.5 -112 | -450 | +340 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -110 | 65.5 -120 | -460 | +335 |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -12.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Texas State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Texas State Bobcats -11.5, only $104 available; Colorado State Rams +11.5, only $39 available; Over 65.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -369 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -382 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -310 |
| Market (4 books) | -12.0 | -397 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.5 | 73.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +12.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +335 | +402 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 66.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Texas State Bobcats since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 3.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosSeahawks at BroncosNFL Thu 15 Oct, 7:15pmSeahawks -2should be Seahawks -2 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 42.5 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 41.5 -116 52¢ | +109 46¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 41.5 -116 52¢ | +109 46¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 42.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +112 | -132 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +104 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -105 | 42 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +108 | -137 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +112 | -132 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 63°F, 25% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $75 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +171 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.0 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +118 | +119 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Oct 17
15 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsFlorida at TexasCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amTexas -9should be Texas -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 8 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -360 | +275 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 54.5 -114 | -375 | +275 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -113 | 53.5 -108 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -106 | 52.5 -114 | -320 | +255 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | -355 | +265 |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns ML, only $135 available; Florida Gators ML, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -544 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -375 |
| Market (7 books) | -9.0 | -317 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -8.5 | -106 | -104 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -320 | -313 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana HoosiersOhio State at IndianaCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amIndiana +3should be Indiana +2 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty · Indiana, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +3 -115 | 48.5 -114 | +123 | -148 |
| betPARX | +3 -115 | 48.5 -114 | +123 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 48.5 -115 | +120 | -150 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -103 | 48.5 -108 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -134 | 49.5 -110 | +116 | -140 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +115 | -145 |
Marked: best for Indiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Indiana +3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $284 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (7 books) | +3.0 | +132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers +3.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | +120 | +117 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State WildcatsKansas at Kansas StateCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amKansas +9should be Kansas +8 · getting 1 pt · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -8 -110 | 55.5 -114 | -315 | +250 |
| betPARX | -8 -110 | 55.5 -114 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -8 -112 | 55.5 -115 | -335 | +250 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -120 | -335 | +255 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $1 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -212 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -182 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -304 |
| Market (6 books) | -9.0 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +9.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +275 | +290 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersMississippi State at LSUCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amLSU -12should be LSU -12 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 8 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -12 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -500 | +370 |
| betPARX | -12 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -500 | +370 |
| BetRivers | -12 -110 | 59.5 -113 | -530 | +360 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -103 | 59.5 -108 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | -480 | +365 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -110 | 59.5 -120 | -460 | +335 |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers ML, only $183 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -377 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -336 |
| Market (7 books) | -12.0 | -432 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 57.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | +360 | +402 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan WolverinesPenn State at MichiganCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amPenn State +5.5should be Penn State +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -0.5 | +100 |
| Market (6 books) | -5.5 | -199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | +175 | +177 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon DucksNebraska at OregonCFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amOregon -12.5should be Oregon -12.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -284 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -430 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -441 |
| Market (6 books) | -12.5 | -488 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 58.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -560 | -420 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA BruinsWisconsin at UCLACFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00amUCLA -3.5should be UCLA -3.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +105 47¢ |
All 8 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -106 | 49.5 -113 | -165 | +133 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -106 | 49.5 -113 | -165 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -107 | 49.5 -114 | -167 | +133 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -165 | +130 |
Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -131 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -130 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (6 books) | -3.5 | -149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wisconsin Badgers +3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Wisconsin Badgers ML | +133 | +154 | -3.6% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee VolunteersAlabama at TennesseeCFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pmAlabama -5should be Alabama -5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +181 34¢ | -239 69¢ |
All 9 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +181 34¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -113 | +175 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -113 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -114 | +165 | -215 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -103 | 56.5 -108 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +184 | -225 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -120 | +165 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +192 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +131 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +192 |
| Market (7 books) | +5.0 | +191 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 60.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -5.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -192 | -188 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Auburn Tigers at Georgia BulldogsAuburn at GeorgiaCFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia -18.5should be Georgia -18.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1236 92¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -1430 | +800 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -112 | 50.5 -114 | -1430 | +700 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +760 |
| Fliff | -18.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -1430 | +765 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $294 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -765 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -439 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -738 |
| Market (7 books) | -18.5 | -1191 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +18.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +782 | +780 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsNorth Carolina at DukeCFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pmDuke -4.5should be Duke -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -200 | +160 |
| betPARX | -5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -200 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | -200 | +160 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fliff | -4.5 -120 | 46.5 -120 | -200 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils ML, only $82 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $278 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | -5.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -308 |
| Market (6 books) | -4.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 48.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils -4.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | -185 | -184 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsMissouri at Ole MissCFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pmMissouri +6.5should be Missouri +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Missouri, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -250 70¢ | — |
All 9 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -250 70¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -114 | 57.5 -114 | -245 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -114 | 57.5 -114 | -245 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | -250 | +195 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -134 | 58.5 -115 | -275 | +220 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 57.5 -120 | -260 | +200 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +6.5 · +110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers ML, only $77 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -136 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -282 |
| Market (7 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 58.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +6.5 | +110 | -108 | +4.2% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +220 | +197 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Miami HurricanesFlorida State at MiamiCFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:00pmMiami -20no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -114 | -1667 | +850 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -114 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -112 | 55.5 -115 | -1667 | +800 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -1810 | +875 |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was Waiting, now Waiting for the ratings update.
Kalshi thin: Miami Hurricanes ML, only $74 available; Florida State Seminoles ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida State's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Florida State's last game | |
| Market (6 books) | -20.0 | -1377 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at BYU CougarsNotre Dame at BYUCFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:30pmBYU +12.5should be BYU +12 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 8 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +12.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +410 | -590 |
| betPARX | +12.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +410 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +410 | -625 |
| Courtside | +12.5 -103 | 48.5 -108 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +12.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +420 | -580 |
| Fliff | +12.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +400 | -575 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars ML, only $27 available; Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Notre Dame and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +324 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +311 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +322 |
| Market (7 books) | +12.5 | +514 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars +13.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | +410 | +401 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Notre Dame and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston CougarsOklahoma State at HoustonCFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:30pmHouston -2.5should be Houston -5 · getting 2.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Houston, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Houston's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +109 46¢ |
All 9 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -167 | +138 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -175 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 57.5 -106 | -140 | +116 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | -160 | +125 |
Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars ML, only $324 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -293 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -193 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (7 books) | -3.5 | -147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars -2.5 | -115 | -151 | +6.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | -140 | -183 | +6.3% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma SoonersKentucky at OklahomaCFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:30pmOklahoma -6.5should be Oklahoma -6.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | -265 | +210 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | -265 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 41.5 -112 | -265 | +205 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 41.5 -108 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 41.5 -120 | -250 | +195 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $120 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $304 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -271 |
| Market (6 books) | -6.5 | -226 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners -6.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | -225 | -210 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-11-145%-2.69 units21 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 21. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty30-3248%-4.67 units62 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 28 of 45. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Oct 6 to 12
2-0 · +2.18 unitsSep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
Its own record, one unit a total, graded at the number, price and book each one posted at. Not counted in the Nasty Pick record. Nothing graded yet. 4 posted and still to play.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-11-1 | 45.0% | -2.7 u | |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 30-32 | 48.4% | -4.7 u | |
| Not Nasty | 238 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-09 18:12.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 204 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 295 |
| SP+ | 11.23 | 227 |
| FPI | 11.29 | 232 |
| Massey | 11.31 | 175 |
| Sagarin | 12.39 | 285 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 178 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 175 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 173 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 204 |
The line archive, 295 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 154 times, against it 102, and sat still 39. Our side taken at the open finished 0.67 points better than the close on average over 280 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.37, our raw ratings number by 12.53, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.84, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-3, -1.15 units, -1.1 pts vs the close on 5.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 48 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.56 | 48 |
| The market | 9.56 | 65 |
| Sagarin | 9.90 | 65 |
| nfelo | 10.03 | 64 |
| FPI | 10.04 | 49 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 47 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 48 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 47 |
The line archive, 65 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 10. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 60 games. The close misses the final by 9.78, the open by 9.83, our raw ratings number by 10.01, Pinnacle's close by 9.79. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.93, Polymarket 8.82, Bally Bet 9.31.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
29 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Under | 52.1 | 52.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Over | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona +5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 247 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 184 | 13.6 | 60-66 (48%) | 39-36 (52%) |
| Massey | 186 | 13.0 | 40-46 (47%) | 16-24 (40%) |
| The blend | 189 | 13.1 | 43-47 (48%) | 19-25 (43%) |
NFL, 55 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 51 | 11.1 | 13-19 (41%) | 4-8 (33%) |
| FPI | 48 | 10.4 | 11-5 (69%) | 7-2 (78%) |
| The blend | 51 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 21 | 56% | 48% |
The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 21 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 19 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 79 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.
What's changed since 10:00pm
- OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.2Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecockstoward Jacksonville State Gamecockswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 4%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 253 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 64 | 10.03 |
| The market | 361 | 10.86 |
| Massey | 224 | 10.97 |
| FPI | 282 | 11.11 |
| SP+ | 227 | 11.23 |
| Sagarin | 351 | 11.95 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 158-151 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-12 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 919231 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.33 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 446 | 1.60 |
| FanDuel | 477 | 1.55 |
| Kalshi | 264 | 1.53 |
| ReBet | 252 | 1.52 |
| betPARX | 256 | 1.51 |
| Bally Bet | 256 | 1.51 |
| BetRivers | 464 | 1.48 |
| LowVig.ag | 424 | 1.42 |
| BetOnline.ag | 434 | 1.42 |
| Courtside | 221 | 1.42 |
| MyBookie.ag | 362 | 1.39 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 256 | 1.29 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.28 |
| Fanatics | 401 | 1.27 |
| theScore Bet | 253 | 1.25 |
| BetUS | 363 | 1.22 |
| Caesars | 384 | 1.19 |
| Bovada | 434 | 1.18 |
| Pinnacle | 433 | 1.14 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.13 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.10 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.06 |
| Polymarket | 110 | 1.05 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 1.02 |
| Fliff | 255 | 0.96 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 5 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ unchanged for 12 days
- Sagarin updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.