Nasty Picks of the Week No Nasty Picks today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Updated Sun 1:21 pm. TOM's lines from 2 hours ago. 14 games priced: 1 lean. 56 more wait for the ratings to rebuild after this weekend's games.

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Today

3 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

Washington State Cougars at Washington Huskies

3:00 pm

-24.0

-23.5

Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 24.

Washington State sideWashington side

Market

-24.0

SP+

-22.5

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-28.5

We say

-23.5

Washington State +24.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Washington State to win · +1136 at TOM

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +24.0 · -107 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketWashington by 24the number to beat

SP+Washington by 22.51.7 apart

FPIWashington by 167.9 apart

SagarinWashington by 28.54.6 apart

We settle onWashington by 23.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.5	-1110
FPI	-16.0	-534
Sagarin	-28.5	-2568
Market (9 books)	-24.0	-1174

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	43.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +24.0	-107	-111	+0.9%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+1136	+1286	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-195	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

The totals figure is shown for information only. That model runs on SP+ alone, ignores pace and weather, and has not been checked against a single real result yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the log says it deserves to.

Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels

6:30 pm · neutral

-6.5

-6.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Ole Miss by 6.5, we say Ole Miss by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Louisville sideOle Miss side

Market

-6.5

SP+

-5.5

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-6.5

Ole Miss -6.5 · -114 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Ole Miss to win · -256 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there.

Pass

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Ole Miss -6.5 · -114 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 5.51.1 apart

FPIOle Miss by 6.50.1 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 92.6 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 6.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-171
FPI	-6.5	-193
Sagarin	-9.0	-250
Market (8 books)	-6.5	-222

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ole Miss Rebels -6.5	-114	-101	-3.0%
Moneyline	Ole Miss Rebels ML	-256	-192	-6.2%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

6:30 pm · neutral

-21.0

-21.0

Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.

Wisconsin sideNotre Dame side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-22.5

FPI

-21.0

Sagarin

-18.5

We say

-21.0

Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Notre Dame to win · -1700 at TOM

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 21the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 22.51.7 apart

FPINotre Dame by 210 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 18.52.5 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 2131% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.5	-1167
FPI	-21.0	-949
Sagarin	-18.5	-701
Market (9 books)	-21.0	-980

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0	-115	+105	-4.7%
Moneyline	Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML	-1700	-946	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-136	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles

tomorrow 6:30 pm

+3.0

+2.5

Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

SMU sideFlorida State side

Market

+3.0

SP+

+1.0

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+7.0

We say

+2.5

Florida State +3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida State to win · +125

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there.

Pass

the Under 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 51. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Florida State to win · +125. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there.

Full detail

The marketSMU by 3the number to beat

SP+SMU by 12.1 apart

FPISMU by 11.9 apart

SagarinSMU by 74.3 apart

We settle onSMU by 2.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.0	+108
FPI	+1.0	+110
Sagarin	+7.0	+205
Market (9 books)	+3.0	+135

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	51.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +3.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+125	+126	-0.1%
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm · NFL

-3.5

-3.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-4.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Seahawks to win · -181 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart

SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
Sagarin	-4.0	-157
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-165

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.5	+100	+101	-0.3%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-181	-152	-4.0%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral · NFL

-3.5

-3.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

49ers to win · +164 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: 49ers to win · +164 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart

SagarinRams by 40.5 apart

We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-116
Sagarin	-4.0	-159
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-173

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+164	+147	+2.7%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-105	-1.1%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes

thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm

-53.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-53.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 1 lean showing so far.

GameMarketOursLean

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles

fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm

-3.5

-1.5

Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side

Market

-3.5

SP+

+3.0

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

+5.0

We say

-1.5

Rutgers +3.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Rutgers to win · +143

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value.

Lean

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Rutgers to win · +143. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value.

Full detail

The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart

FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart

SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart

We settle onBoston College by 1.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+135
FPI	-6.5	-190
Sagarin	+5.0	+168
Market (5 books)	-3.5	-154

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5	-110	-121	+2.4%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+143	+115	+5.3%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-162	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks

fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

+6.5

+7.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Missouri sideKansas side

Market

+6.5

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+8.5

We say

+7.0

Missouri -6.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Missouri to win · -255

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Missouri -6.5 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Missouri by 103.3 apart

FPIMissouri by 42.6 apart

SagarinMissouri by 8.51.9 apart

We settle onMissouri by 731% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+271
FPI	+4.0	+149
Sagarin	+8.5	+235
Market (6 books)	+6.5	+220

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers -6.5	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	-255	-205	-4.6%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-35.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-35.5	-2475

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-30.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-30.5	-3069

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-43.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-43.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans

fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

-20.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-20.5	-1112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

49 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 26 leans showing so far.

GameMarketOursLean

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-9.5

-10.5

Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9.5, we say East Carolina by 10.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-11.5

We say

-10.5

East Carolina -9.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

East Carolina to win · -340

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there.

Pass

the Under 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 54. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: East Carolina -9.5 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketEast Carolina by 9.5the number to beat

SP+East Carolina by 12.52.9 apart

FPIEast Carolina by 11.51.7 apart

We settle onEast Carolina by 10.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-361
FPI	-11.5	-318
Sagarin	doesn't rate App State
Market (5 books)	-9.5	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -9.5	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-340	-287	-3.1%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.5.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-15.0

-16.0

Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 15, we say Texas A&M by 16. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side

Market

-15.0

SP+

-18.0

FPI

-17.5

Sagarin

-18.0

We say

-16.0

Texas A&M -15.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texas A&M to win · -682

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Texas A&M -15.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketTexas A&M by 15the number to beat

SP+Texas A&M by 183.4 apart

FPITexas A&M by 17.52.7 apart

SagarinTexas A&M by 183.4 apart

We settle onTexas A&M by 1631% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.0	-676
FPI	-17.5	-619
Sagarin	-18.0	-674
Market (6 books)	-15.0	-521

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	52.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -15.0	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-682	-515	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-11.0

-10.0

Lean Arkansas, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Arkansas: market says Utah by 11, we say Utah by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arkansas sideUtah side

Market

-11.0

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-10.0

Arkansas +11.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Arkansas to win · +340

We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 66. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Arkansas +11.0 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketUtah by 11the number to beat

SP+Utah by 6.54.8 apart

FPIUtah by 8.52.8 apart

SagarinUtah by 8.52.9 apart

We settle onUtah by 1045% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-190
FPI	-8.5	-232
Sagarin	-8.5	-229
Market (5 books)	-11.0	-360

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	66.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +11.0	-110	-117	+1.5%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+340	+271	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-226	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-3.5

-2.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side

Market

-3.5

SP+

-1.5

FPI

+2.5

Sagarin

-2.0

We say

-2.5

South Florida +3.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

South Florida to win · +155

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value.

Lean

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: South Florida to win · +155. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value.

Full detail

The marketArmy by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Army by 1.51.8 apart

FPISouth Florida by 2.55.8 apart

SagarinArmy by 21.1 apart

We settle onArmy by 2.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-116
FPI	+2.5	+128
Sagarin	-2.0	-124
Market (5 books)	-3.5	-161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	58.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls +3.5	-110	-109	-0.2%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+155	+128	+4.6%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-195	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-19.0

-17.5

Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 19, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side

Market

-19.0

SP+

-15.5

FPI

-11.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-17.5

Washington State +19.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Washington State to win · +847

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +19.0 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketKansas State by 19the number to beat

SP+Kansas State by 15.53.1 apart

FPIKansas State by 11.57.4 apart

SagarinKansas State by 190.2 apart

We settle onKansas State by 17.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-508
FPI	-11.5	-315
Sagarin	-19.0	-738
Market (4 books)	-19.0	-888

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +19.0	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+847	+615	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.5.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+6.5

+3.5

Lean Michigan, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan: market says Oklahoma by 6.5, we say Oklahoma by 3.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side

Market

+6.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

+3.5

Michigan +6.5 · -110

Covers 58 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

Michigan to win · +200

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.

Lean

the Under 44.0 · -110

SP+ projects 43. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Michigan to win · +200. We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.

Full detail

The marketOklahoma by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Michigan by 0.56.7 apart

FPIOklahoma by 15.5 apart

SagarinMichigan by 1.57.9 apart

We settle onOklahoma by 3.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.5	-117
Market (7 books)	+6.5	+206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	43.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +6.5	-110	-136	+5.2%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+200	+138	+8.6%
Total	Under 44.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 2.6.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+22.0

+21.0

Lean Oklahoma State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Oklahoma State: market says Oregon by 22, we say Oregon by 21. That can change when the new numbers land.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side

Market

+22.0

SP+

+20.0

FPI

+19.5

Sagarin

+25.0

We say

+21.0

Oklahoma State +22.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Oklahoma State to win · +1126

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 58.0 · -110

SP+ projects 55. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Oklahoma State +22.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketOregon by 22the number to beat

SP+Oregon by 202.1 apart

FPIOregon by 19.52.4 apart

SagarinOregon by 252.6 apart

We settle onOregon by 2145% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.0	+847
FPI	+19.5	+810
Sagarin	+25.0	+1525
Market (6 books)	+22.0	+1124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	55.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.0	-110	-114	+0.9%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+1126	+973	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 58.0	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.5.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-17.5

-17.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side

Market

-17.5

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-14.0

Sagarin

-20.0

We say

-17.5

Virginia Tech -17.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Virginia Tech to win · -1050

We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 47. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Virginia Tech -17.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketVirginia Tech by 17.5the number to beat

SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50 apart

FPIVirginia Tech by 143.6 apart

SagarinVirginia Tech by 202.1 apart

We settle onVirginia Tech by 17.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-638
FPI	-14.0	-422
Sagarin	-20.0	-818
Market (6 books)	-17.5	-699

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Tech Hokies -17.5	-110	+104	-3.3%
Moneyline	Virginia Tech Hokies ML	-1050	-636	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-160	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.8.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+23.0

+23.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side

Market

+23.0

SP+

+23.0

FPI

+20.0

Sagarin

+29.5

We say

+23.0

Penn State -23.0 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Penn State to win · -2500

We make it 92 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 50.0 · -110

SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Penn State -23.0 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketPenn State by 23the number to beat

SP+Penn State by 230.1 apart

FPIPenn State by 202.9 apart

SagarinPenn State by 29.56.7 apart

We settle onPenn State by 2360% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1228
FPI	+20.0	+848
Sagarin	+29.5	+2989
Market (5 books)	+23.0	+1256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	60.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -23.0	-110	+104	-3.5%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-2500	-1221	priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-237	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Temple Owls since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.7.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+4.0

+3.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side

Market

+4.0

SP+

+3.5

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

We say

+3.5

Purdue +4.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Purdue to win · +150

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.

Pass

the Under 50.0 · -110

SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Purdue to win · +150. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketWake Forest by 4the number to beat

SP+Wake Forest by 3.50.7 apart

FPIWake Forest by 30.9 apart

Sagarina pick'em4.2 apart

We settle onWake Forest by 3.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.5	+140
FPI	+3.0	+138
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (5 books)	+4.0	+160

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +4.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+150	+145	+0.9%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-155	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs

sat 12 sep, 11:45 am

-39.0

-38.0

Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 39, we say Georgia by 38. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side

Market

-39.0

SP+

-36.0

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-42.0

We say

-38.0

Western Kentucky +39.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Western Kentucky +39.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketGeorgia by 39the number to beat

SP+Georgia by 363.3 apart

FPIGeorgia by 327.3 apart

SagarinGeorgia by 422.7 apart

We settle onGeorgia by 3831% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-36.0	-7815
FPI	-32.0	-4161
Sagarin	-42.0	-21935
Market (3 books)	-39.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +39.0	-110	-113	+0.7%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-140	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+10.0

+10.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side

Market

+10.0

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+12.5

Sagarin

+10.0

We say

+10.0

Kentucky +10.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Kentucky to win · +331

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 40. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Kentucky +10.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketAlabama by 10the number to beat

SP+Alabama by 100 apart

FPIAlabama by 12.52.3 apart

SagarinAlabama by 100.3 apart

We settle onAlabama by 1031% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+280
FPI	+12.5	+360
Sagarin	+10.0	+271
Market (6 books)	+10.0	+356

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	40.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +10.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+331	+281	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.5	-110	-206	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

-7.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-7.5

FPI

-8.0

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-7.5

BYU -7.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

BYU to win · -291

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there.

Pass

the Over 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: BYU -7.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat

SP+BYU by 7.50.2 apart

FPIBYU by 80.8 apart

SagarinBYU by 8.51.3 apart

We settle onBYU by 7.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-214
FPI	-8.0	-227
Sagarin	-8.5	-240
Market (6 books)	-7.5	-251

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -7.5	-110	+102	-2.9%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-291	-215	-6.2%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-1.0

Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side

Market

-1.0

SP+

+2.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.5

We say

California +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

California to win · -104

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.

Pass

the Under 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: California to win · -104. We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.

Full detail

The marketSyracuse by 1the number to beat

SP+California by 2.53.9 apart

FPISyracuse by 0.50.7 apart

SagarinCalifornia by 2.53.6 apart

We settle ona pick'em31% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+131
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.5	+127
Market (5 books)	-1.0	-107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +1.0	-110	-104	-1.3%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	-104	+101	-1.1%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 0.7.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.0

-7.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side

Market

-7.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-4.5

Sagarin

-11.0

We say

-7.0

Illinois -7.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Illinois to win · -270

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there.

Pass

the Over 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 63. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Illinois -7.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketIllinois by 7the number to beat

SP+Illinois by 70 apart

FPIIllinois by 4.52.6 apart

SagarinIllinois by 114.2 apart

We settle onIllinois by 745% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-201
FPI	-4.5	-154
Sagarin	-11.0	-312
Market (6 books)	-7.0	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	63.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini -7.0	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	-270	-201	-6.1%
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-218	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-18.0

-19.0

Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 18, we say Michigan State by 19. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side

Market

-18.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-22.5

We say

-19.0

Michigan State -18.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Michigan State to win · -1048

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Michigan State -18.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketMichigan State by 18the number to beat

SP+Michigan State by 20.52.5 apart

FPIMichigan State by 19.51.4 apart

SagarinMichigan State by 22.54.5 apart

We settle onMichigan State by 1945% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-889
FPI	-19.5	-778
Sagarin	-22.5	-1138
Market (6 books)	-18.0	-696

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	52.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -18.0	-110	-106	-0.8%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-1048	-754	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.5.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+13.5

+14.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Maryland sideUConn side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+15.0

FPI

+10.0

Sagarin

+16.5

We say

+14.0

Maryland -13.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Maryland to win · -605

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Maryland -13.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Maryland by 151.4 apart

FPIMaryland by 103.5 apart

SagarinMaryland by 16.53 apart

We settle onMaryland by 1431% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+15.0	+465
FPI	+10.0	+274
Sagarin	+16.5	+557
Market (6 books)	+13.5	+469

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins -13.5	-110	-101	-2.3%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	-605	-418	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-137	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+0.5

-2.0

Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 0.5, we say Minnesota by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side

Market

+0.5

SP+

-3.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

-3.5

We say

-2.0

Minnesota +0.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Minnesota to win · -101

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value.

Lean

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Minnesota to win · -101. We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value.

Full detail

The marketMississippi State by 0.5the number to beat

SP+Minnesota by 3.54.2 apart

FPIMinnesota by 0.51 apart

SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.1 apart

We settle onMinnesota by 260% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.5	-143
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-142
Market (6 books)	+0.5	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	50.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +0.5	-110	-120	+2.3%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-101	-120	+4.3%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-150	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-44.5

-44.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Rice sideNotre Dame side

Market

-44.5

SP+

-44.0

FPI

-41.5

Sagarin

-53.0

We say

-44.5

Rice +44.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Rice +44.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 440.5 apart

FPINotre Dame by 41.53 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 538.3 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 44.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-44.0	-32776
FPI	-41.5	-20558
Sagarin	-53.0	-198394
Market (3 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +44.5	-110	-106	-1.0%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

-6.5

Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-4.0

We say

-6.5

UCF +7.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

UCF to win · +240

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value.

Lean

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 49. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: UCF to win · +240. We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value.

Full detail

The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat

SP+Pittsburgh by 6.51 apart

FPIPittsburgh by 43.7 apart

We settle onPittsburgh by 6.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-195
FPI	-4.0	-149
Sagarin	doesn't rate UCF
Market (5 books)	-7.5	-262

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +7.5	-110	-113	+0.6%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+240	+194	+4.6%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-198	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+1.0

+0.5

Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say UTSA by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

We say

+0.5

Texas State +1.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texas State to win · -103

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.

Pass

the Over 64.5 · -110

SP+ projects 78. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Texas State to win · -103. We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there.

Full detail

The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat

SP+Texas State by 12.5 apart

FPITexas State by 34.5 apart

Sagarina pick'em1.3 apart

We settle onUTSA by 0.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-113
FPI	-3.0	-138
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (6 books)	+1.0	+105

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	78.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas State Bobcats +1.0	-110	+100	-2.4%
Moneyline	Texas State Bobcats ML	-103	+105	-1.9%
Total	Over 64.5	-110	-327	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-10.0

-10.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side

Market

-10.0

SP+

-13.5

FPI

-7.0

We say

-10.5

UAB -10.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

UAB to win · -425

We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 56.0 · -110

SP+ projects 59. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: UAB -10.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketUAB by 10the number to beat

SP+UAB by 13.53.3 apart

FPIUAB by 73.3 apart

We settle onUAB by 10.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-403
FPI	-7.0	-201
Sagarin	doesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (6 books)	-10.0	-342

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UAB Blazers -10.0	-110	+101	-2.6%
Moneyline	UAB Blazers ML	-425	-282	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskies

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-27.0

-26.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Utah State sideWashington side

Market

-27.0

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-19.0

Sagarin

-35.0

We say

-26.5

Utah State +27.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Utah State to win · +1694

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Utah State +27.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketWashington by 27the number to beat

SP+Washington by 261.1 apart

FPIWashington by 198.2 apart

SagarinWashington by 357.8 apart

We settle onWashington by 26.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-1770
FPI	-19.0	-725
Sagarin	-35.0	-6519
Market (4 books)	-27.0	-1758

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	52.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +27.0	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1694	+1921	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-136	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green

sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm

+6.0

+5.0

Lean North Texas, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean North Texas: market says UNLV by 6, we say UNLV by 5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side

Market

+6.0

SP+

+13.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+5.0

North Texas +6.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

North Texas to win · +172

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.

Pass

the Over 58.0 · -110

SP+ projects 67. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: North Texas to win · +172. We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketUNLV by 6the number to beat

SP+UNLV by 137.2 apart

FPIUNLV by 42 apart

SagarinUNLV by 32.8 apart

We settle onUNLV by 545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+377
FPI	+4.0	+146
Sagarin	+3.0	+135
Market (6 books)	+6.0	+185

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	66.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	North Texas Mean Green +6.0	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	+172	+163	+1.3%
Total	Over 58.0	-110	-213	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores

sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm

-20.0

-22.5

Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20, we say Vanderbilt by 22.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side

Market

-20.0

SP+

-25.0

FPI

-15.5

Sagarin

-28.5

We say

-22.5

Vanderbilt -20.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Vanderbilt to win · -1375

We make it 92 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 64. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Vanderbilt -20.0 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketVanderbilt by 20the number to beat

SP+Vanderbilt by 254.7 apart

FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.4 apart

SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.4 apart

We settle onVanderbilt by 22.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-1550
FPI	-15.5	-509
Sagarin	-28.5	-2554
Market (6 books)	-20.0	-836

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	64.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores -20.0	-110	-121	+2.3%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	-1375	-1110	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-242	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.5.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-8.0

-7.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side

Market

-8.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-7.5

Memphis +8.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Memphis to win · +265

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value.

Lean

the Over 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 60. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Memphis to win · +265. We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value.

Full detail

The marketBoise State by 8the number to beat

SP+Boise State by 71.2 apart

FPIBoise State by 62 apart

SagarinBoise State by 90.6 apart

We settle onBoise State by 7.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-201
FPI	-6.0	-186
Sagarin	-9.0	-242
Market (5 books)	-8.0	-292

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+265	+215	+4.3%
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-145	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.7.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-10.0

-6.0

Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10, we say Florida International by 6. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side

Market

-10.0

SP+

-0.5

FPI

-2.0

We say

-6.0

Buffalo +10.0 · -110

Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

Buffalo to win · +320

We make it 35 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 49. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buffalo +10.0 · -110. Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

The marketFlorida International by 10the number to beat

SP+Florida International by 0.59.6 apart

FPIFlorida International by 27.9 apart

We settle onFlorida International by 645% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	-2.0	-124
Sagarin	doesn't rate Florida International
Market (5 books)	-10.0	-338

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.0	-110	-154	+8.3%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+320	+183	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-1.5

-1.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side

Market

-1.5

SP+

+2.0

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

-1.5

Jacksonville State +1.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Jacksonville State to win · +102

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there.

Pass

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Jacksonville State to win · +102. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there.

Full detail

The marketOhio by 1.5the number to beat

SP+Jacksonville State by 23.5 apart

FPIOhio by 8.56.6 apart

SagarinOhio by 1.50.3 apart

We settle onOhio by 1.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.0	+120
FPI	-8.5	-231
Sagarin	-1.5	-115
Market (5 books)	-1.5	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	44.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +1.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+102	+117	-3.5%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-177	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-28.5

-28.0

Lean Bowling Green, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Bowling Green: market says Nebraska by 28.5, we say Nebraska by 28. That can change when the new numbers land.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-26.5

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-33.5

We say

-28.0

Bowling Green +28.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Bowling Green to win · +2296

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 42. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Bowling Green +28.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat

SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart

FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart

SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart

We settle onNebraska by 2831% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.5	-1919
FPI	-24.5	-1514
Sagarin	-33.5	-5315
Market (6 books)	-28.5	-2269

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-110	-111	+0.3%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2296	+2318	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-229	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-9.5

-9.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-18.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-9.5

Georgia State +9.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Georgia State to win · +272

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Georgia State to win · +272. We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart

FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart

SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart

We settle onKennesaw State by 9.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-708
FPI	-9.5	-257
Sagarin	-8.5	-231
Market (4 books)	-9.5	-289

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	58.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+272	+259	+1.0%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-192	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+13.5

+12.0

Lean Georgia Tech, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Georgia Tech: market says Tennessee by 13.5, we say Tennessee by 12. That can change when the new numbers land.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+9.0

FPI

+9.5

Sagarin

+9.0

We say

+12.0

Georgia Tech +13.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Georgia Tech to win · +410

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 62. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Georgia Tech +13.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketTennessee by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Tennessee by 94.1 apart

FPITennessee by 9.53.9 apart

SagarinTennessee by 94.1 apart

We settle onTennessee by 1231% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.0	+252
FPI	+9.5	+256
Sagarin	+9.0	+252
Market (5 books)	+13.5	+435

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	62.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.5	-110	-120	+2.2%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+410	+339	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-191	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-17.5

-16.5

Lean Middle Tennessee, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Middle Tennessee: market says Marshall by 17.5, we say Marshall by 16.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side

Market

-17.5

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-16.5

Middle Tennessee +17.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Middle Tennessee to win · +662

We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 67. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Middle Tennessee +17.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketMarshall by 17.5the number to beat

SP+Marshall by 20.53 apart

FPIMarshall by 9.58 apart

SagarinMarshall by 143.6 apart

We settle onMarshall by 16.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-889
FPI	-9.5	-260
Sagarin	-14.0	-415
Market (4 books)	-17.5	-693

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	66.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +17.5	-110	-118	+1.8%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+662	+547	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-216	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+14.0

+13.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side

Market

+14.0

SP+

+17.5

FPI

+7.5

We say

+13.5

Sam Houston +14.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Sam Houston to win · +480

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 58. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Sam Houston +14.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat

SP+Tulsa by 17.53.6 apart

FPITulsa by 7.56.8 apart

We settle onTulsa by 13.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.5	+638
FPI	+7.5	+207
Sagarin	doesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (5 books)	+14.0	+507

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +14.0	-110	-109	-0.2%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+480	+402	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-161	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.7.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-11.0

-11.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Alabama sideTulane side

Market

-11.0

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-15.0

Sagarin

-12.0

We say

-11.5

Tulane -11.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Tulane to win · -475

We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 57. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Tulane -11.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketTulane by 11the number to beat

SP+Tulane by 12.51.4 apart

FPITulane by 153.9 apart

SagarinTulane by 121 apart

We settle onTulane by 11.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-357
FPI	-15.0	-469
Sagarin	-12.0	-341
Market (5 books)	-11.0	-384

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave -11.0	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	-475	-329	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-151	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins

sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

-10.5

-9.0

Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 10.5, we say UCLA by 9. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-1.0

Sagarin

-17.0

We say

-9.0

San Diego State +10.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

San Diego State to win · +320

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: San Diego State +10.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketUCLA by 10.5the number to beat

SP+UCLA by 73.4 apart

FPIUCLA by 19.1 apart

SagarinUCLA by 176.8 apart

We settle onUCLA by 931% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-199
FPI	-1.0	-113
Sagarin	-17.0	-593
Market (5 books)	-10.5	-335

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +10.5	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+320	+253	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-23.5

-24.5

Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 23.5, we say Clemson by 24.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side

Market

-23.5

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-30.5

We say

-24.5

Clemson -23.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Clemson to win · -2049

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Clemson -23.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketClemson by 23.5the number to beat

SP+Clemson by 262.6 apart

FPIClemson by 24.50.8 apart

SagarinClemson by 30.57.2 apart

We settle onClemson by 24.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-1818
FPI	-24.5	-1437
Sagarin	-30.5	-3480
Market (4 books)	-23.5	-1168

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Clemson Tigers -23.5	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-2049	-1437	priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-149	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+6.5

+6.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side

Market

+6.5

SP+

+5.0

FPI

+8.5

Sagarin

+4.5

We say

+6.0

Florida Atlantic +6.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida Atlantic to win · +202

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough.

Pass

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 65. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Florida Atlantic to win · +202. We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketNavy by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Navy by 51.4 apart

FPINavy by 8.51.8 apart

SagarinNavy by 4.52.2 apart

We settle onNavy by 631% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.0	+166
FPI	+8.5	+231
Sagarin	+4.5	+154
Market (4 books)	+6.5	+216

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	65.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida Atlantic Owls +6.5	-110	-103	-1.5%
Moneyline	Florida Atlantic Owls ML	+202	+183	+2.3%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-193	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-14.5

-15.5

Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 14.5, we say Iowa by 15.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side

Market

-14.5

SP+

-17.0

FPI

-13.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-15.5

Iowa -14.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Iowa to win · -747

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 41.5 · -110

SP+ projects 42. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Iowa -14.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketIowa by 14.5the number to beat

SP+Iowa by 172.7 apart

FPIIowa by 13.50.8 apart

SagarinIowa by 194.6 apart

We settle onIowa by 15.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-602
FPI	-13.5	-408
Sagarin	-19.0	-750
Market (6 books)	-14.5	-561

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	41.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -14.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-747	-488	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-31.5

-31.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side

Market

-31.5

SP+

-31.5

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-31.5

LSU -31.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

LSU to win · -10000

We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: LSU -31.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketLSU by 31.5the number to beat

SP+LSU by 31.50.2 apart

FPILSU by 320.3 apart

SagarinLSU by 39.58.2 apart

We settle onLSU by 31.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-31.5	-4039
FPI	-32.0	-4094
Sagarin	-39.5	-14985
Market (4 books)	-31.5	-3069

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	46.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	LSU Tigers -31.5	-110	+103	-3.2%
Moneyline	LSU Tigers ML	-10000	-3974	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-213	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+1.5

Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says a pick'em, we say Ohio State by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side

Market

SP+

+7.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+1.5

Ohio State pk · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Ohio State to win · -105

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough.

Pass

the Over 48.0 · -110

SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Ohio State to win · -105. We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

SP+Ohio State by 7.57.8 apart

FPITexas by 0.50.4 apart

SagarinOhio State by 22.2 apart

We settle onOhio State by 1.560% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+216
FPI	-0.5	-104
Sagarin	+2.0	+124
Market (7 books)	pk	-103

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes pk	-110	-113	+0.8%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	-105	-113	+1.9%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+27.0

+26.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side

Market

+27.0

SP+

+25.0

FPI

+26.0

Sagarin

+33.5

We say

+26.5

Oregon State +27.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Oregon State to win · +1800

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 48. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Oregon State +27.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketTexas Tech by 27the number to beat

SP+Texas Tech by 251.7 apart

FPITexas Tech by 261 apart

SagarinTexas Tech by 33.56.6 apart

We settle onTexas Tech by 26.560% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+25.0	+1612
FPI	+26.0	+1774
Sagarin	+33.5	+5315
Market (5 books)	+27.0	+1821

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	47.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers +27.0	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	+1800	+1871	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-135	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

-29.5

-31.0

Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 29.5, we say Auburn by 31. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side

Market

-29.5

SP+

-34.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-31.0

Auburn -29.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Auburn to win · -5000

We make it 97 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 50. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Auburn -29.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketAuburn by 29.5the number to beat

SP+Auburn by 34.55 apart

FPIAuburn by 19.510.1 apart

SagarinAuburn by 39.510.1 apart

We settle onAuburn by 3131% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-34.5	-6135
FPI	-19.5	-766
Sagarin	-39.5	-14265
Market (4 books)	-29.5	-2041

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers -29.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	-5000	-3615	priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebels

sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

-46.5

-45.0

Lean Charlotte, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Charlotte: market says Ole Miss by 46.5, we say Ole Miss by 45. That can change when the new numbers land.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side

Market

-46.5

SP+

-43.0

FPI

-33.0

Sagarin

-50.5

We say

-45.0

Charlotte +46.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

the Under 61.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Charlotte +46.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 46.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 433.7 apart

FPIOle Miss by 3313.7 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 50.54.2 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 4545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-43.0	-26145
FPI	-33.0	-4785
Sagarin	-50.5	-126783
Market (2 books)	-46.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.5	55.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +46.5	-110	-123	+2.8%
Total	Under 61.5	-110	-161	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons

sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

+6.5

+5.5

Lean Air Force, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Air Force: market says North Dakota State by 6.5, we say North Dakota State by 5.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side

Market

+6.5

SP+

-1.0

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+5.5

Air Force +6.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Air Force to win · +200

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.

Lean

the Over 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Air Force to win · +200. We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value.

Full detail

The marketNorth Dakota State by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Air Force by 17.3 apart

FPINorth Dakota State by 33.4 apart

SagarinNorth Dakota State by 33.4 apart

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 5.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-108
FPI	+3.0	+136
Sagarin	+3.0	+137
Market (3 books)	+6.5	+213

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons +6.5	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	+200	+172	+3.5%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

-18.5

-18.0

Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-24.0

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-16.0

We say

-18.0

Sacramento State +18.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Sacramento State to win · +675

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Sacramento State +18.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Fresno State by 245.7 apart

FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart

SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart

We settle onFresno State by 1831% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1414
FPI	-16.0	-520
Sagarin	-16.0	-534
Market (4 books)	-18.5	-706

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+675	+642	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.5	-110	-134	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans

sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm

-28.5

-28.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-30.5

FPI

-28.0

We say

-28.5

USC -28.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

USC to win · -7883

We make it 96 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 66. Totals aren't validated yet, so this is an opinion, not a rated bet.

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: USC -28.5 · -110. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketUSC by 28.5the number to beat

SP+USC by 30.52 apart

FPIUSC by 280.6 apart

We settle onUSC by 28.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-30.5	-3379
FPI	-28.0	-2342
Sagarin	doesn't rate Louisiana
Market (4 books)	-28.5	-2568

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	65.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	USC Trojans -28.5	-110	+102	-3.0%
Moneyline	USC Trojans ML	-7883	-2615	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-269	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 6.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-35.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-35.5	-4086

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals

sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

-15.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-15.5	-611

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm

-10.0

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (4 books)	-10.0	-287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

8 gamesBest: Lean Titans, Jets at Titans

GameMarketOursLean

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-1.5

Lean Titans

Lean Titans. Market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5.

Jets sideTitans side

Market

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.5

We say

-1.5

Titans pk · -122 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Titans to win · -130 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Titans pk · -122 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

TOM: spread pk here against -1.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart

SagarinTitans by 4.54.5 apart

We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.5	-169
Market (9 books)	pk	-117

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans pk	-122	-119	-0.6%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-130	-119	-2.2%

TOM: spread pk here against -1.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-4.0

-4.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side

Market

-4.0

nfelo

-2.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-4.0

Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Buccaneers to win · +172 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Buccaneers to win · +172 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketBengals by 4the number to beat

nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart

SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
Sagarin	-4.0	-162
Market (9 books)	-4.0	-184

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+172	+156	+2.2%
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-113	-105	-1.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-7.0

-7.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Saints sideLions side

Market

-7.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-7.5

We say

-7.0

Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Saints to win · +253 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Saints to win · +253 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketLions by 7the number to beat

nfeloLions by 60.8 apart

SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-206
Sagarin	-7.5	-245
Market (9 books)	-7.0	-271

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+253	+226	+2.4%
Spread	New Orleans Saints +7.0	-116	-107	-1.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

+3.5

+3.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ravens sideColts side

Market

+3.5

nfelo

+0.5

Sagarin

+3.5

We say

+3.0

Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Colts to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Colts to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart

SagarinRavens by 3.50.2 apart

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+108
Sagarin	+3.5	+147
Market (9 books)	+3.5	+160

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+150	+144	+0.9%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-120	-107	-2.9%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

+2.5

+2.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bears sidePanthers side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

+1.0

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Panthers to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Panthers to win · +130 at TOM. We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloBears by 11.7 apart

SagarinBears by 20.4 apart

We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
Sagarin	+2.0	+127
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+141

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+130	+130	+0.0%
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	+100	+105	-1.1%

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-3.0

-3.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Steelers by 3, we say Steelers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.0

Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Steelers to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat

nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart

SagarinSteelers by 41 apart

We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.0	-159
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-162

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0	-125	-103	-4.7%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	-180	-143	-5.4%

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

Pass

Pass. Market says a pick'em, we say a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bills sideTexans side

Market

nfelo

-0.5

Sagarin

We say

Texans pk · -106 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texans to win · -107 at TOM

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Texans pk · -106 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart

Sagarina pick'em0 apart

We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-106
Sagarin	pk	-100
Market (9 books)	pk	+102

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans pk	-106	-101	-1.2%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-107	-101	-1.5%

TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-8.0

-8.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Jaguars by 8, we say Jaguars by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Browns sideJaguars side

Market

-8.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.5

We say

-8.0

Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Browns to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

If you're betting it anyway: Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat

nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart

SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart

We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-197
Sagarin	-9.5	-310
Market (9 books)	-8.0	-325

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +8.0	-113	-112	-0.2%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+310	+252	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Record6 bets · 3-3 · -0.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How it worksand how the model is doing

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

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How it's going

3-3Record

-0.2Units

-3.5%ROI

8Open

It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

56 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 56 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 70 games across 9 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 5 were worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 1:17 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.7California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orangetoward Syracuse Orangeagainst the public
→ 3.7Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogstoward Georgia Bulldogswith the public
→ 3.2Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokiestoward Virginia Tech Hokieswith the public
→ 2.7Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboystoward Oregon Duckswith the public
→ 2.5Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskiestoward Washington Huskieswith the public
→ 2.2Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcatstoward Kansas State Wildcatswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 0 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 4347 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.14 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
FanDuel	57	0.35
BetOnline.ag	63	0.18
LowVig.ag	60	0.16
DraftKings	63	0.09
BetRivers	42	0.05
BetMGM	45	0.04

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
SP+ updated today
Sagarin updated today
nfelo updated today

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 6

No plays today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.