Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 11:19 am · 1 Nasty Pick · TOM just now
College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pmFPITue 4:30pmSagarinTue 8:15amMasseySat 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 12 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloThu 9:18amFPISat 6:02amSagarinMon 2:55pmMasseySat 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 4 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 0 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

NASTY PICKAppalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates
Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5
-110as called
NASTY PICKArizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M Aggies -14.5
-104as called
NASTY PICKOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines
Michigan Wolverines ML
+192as called
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Buffalo at Florida InternationalBuffalo +10-105+4.9%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 8:02am at +10 -105. Now Buffalo +10 -105. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+10.5 open Sunnow +10Nasty Number +8.5

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Middle Tennessee at MarshallMiddle Tennessee +13-110 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 · 1 point awayJets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck

Buck's Take

1 Nasty Pick on the counter Saturday. Read the receipt before you bet it.

Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13. Every system has Marshall by 6.5; the market has Marshall by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Arkansas at Utah Over 55.5 the strongest at 4.2% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Arkansas at Utah, Over 55.5, down 1 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Don't tell anyone I said so.

Buck

Today

67 gamesBest: Buffalo +10.0, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International
CFB 5:00pm
Buffalo +10
should be Buffalo +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -105 at TOM
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Buffalo +10.0 at -105 at TOM. Market says Florida International by 10, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 8.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Florida International →
Market
Florida International by 10TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Florida International by 0.59.7 pts our side
FPI
Florida International by 2.57.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Florida International by 73.1 pts our side
Massey
Florida International by 2.57.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida International by 8.51.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Buffalo, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida International by 8.5opened Florida International by 10.5now Florida International by 10SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buffalo is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
453 pts under the market
Massey
48.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.71.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.7opened 48.9now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLBuffalo ML
TOM-10 -11548 -107-400+310
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢47.5 -107 50¢-381 78¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-10 -10848 +100-398+321
All 13 books
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLBuffalo ML
TOM-10 -11548 -107-400+310
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢47.5 -107 50¢-381 78¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-10 -12047.5 -105-425+320
BetOnline.ag-10 -11548 -107-400+316
BetRivers-10 -11047.5 -110-480+320
BetUS-10 -11047 -110-370+295
Bovada-10 -11047.5 -110-415+310
DraftKings-10 -11247.5 -105-410+320
Fanatics-10.5 -10547.5 -110-425+325
FanDuel-10.5 -10647.5 -108-450+340
LowVig.ag-10 -11148 -105-400+316
MyBookie.ag-10 -11047.5 -110-420+310
Pinnacle-10 -10848 +100-398+321

Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +10.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
The play
Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -113 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 49% chance of rain.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida International by 8.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-103
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-7.0-208
Massey-2.5-127
Market (11 books)-10.0-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.046.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.0-105-128+4.9%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+310+247priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-113-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall
CFB 6:00pm
Middle Tennessee +13
should be Middle Tennessee +11 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +17
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Marshall →
Market
Marshall by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Marshall by 8.54.4 pts our side
FPI
Marshall by 48.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Marshall by 11.51.3 pts our side
Massey
Marshall by 2.510.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Marshall by 112 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Middle Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Marshall by 11opened Marshall by 16now Marshall by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
65.48.4 pts over the market
Massey
552 pts under the market
Weather
-1.077% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
59.22.2 pts over the market
Over 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.2opened 57.5now 57SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLMiddle Tennessee ML
TOM-13 -11057 -105-500+370
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢56.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+426 18¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -11257 -105-582+441
All 13 books
Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLMiddle Tennessee ML
TOM-13 -11057 -105-500+370
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢56.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+426 18¢
BetMGM-13 -10857.5 -110-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11057 -105-500+383
BetRivers-13.5 -11056.5 -112-625+420
BetUS-13 -11057 -110-500+390
Bovada-13 -11057 -105-600+425
DraftKings-13.5 -10856.5 -112-520+390
Fanatics-13 -11056.5 -110-550+410
FanDuel-13.5 -10556.5 -110-530+390
LowVig.ag-13 -10657 -103-500+383
MyBookie.ag-13.5 -11057 -110-594+411
Pinnacle-12.5 -11257 -105-582+441

Marked: best for Middle Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Middle Tennessee to win · +370 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 57.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 80°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -17.0, now -13.0. The market has moved 4.3 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onMarshall by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-252
FPI-4.0-154
Sagarin-11.5-361
Massey-2.5-132
Market (11 books)-13.0-478
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.059.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.0-110-117+1.6%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+370+332priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.0-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State
CFB 5:00pm
Over 55
should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 56
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Memphis too: market says Boise State by 9, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8.5, but at -107 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 9TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 5.53.7 pts our side
FPI
Boise State by 81.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Boise State by 9.50.4 pts against us
Massey
Boise State by 26.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Boise State by 8.50.7 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Memphis. Sagarin at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 8.5opened Boise State by 8.5now Boise State by 9SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
616 pts over the market
Massey
57.12.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.14.1 pts over the market
Over 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.1opened 55.1now 55SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Boise State spreadTotal (over)Boise State MLMemphis ML
TOM-9 -11355 -110-360+270
Pinnacle-9 -10655.5 +101-345+284
All 12 books
Boise State spreadTotal (over)Boise State MLMemphis ML
TOM-9 -11355 -110-360+270
BetMGM-8.5 -11855.5 -112-350+280
BetOnline.ag-9 -11555 -110-360+289
BetRivers-8.5 -10956 -110-345+265
BetUS-9 -11555 -110-360+290
Bovada-9 -11055 -110-360+280
DraftKings-9.5 -10855.5 -110-375+295
Fanatics-9 -11055.5 -105-350+275
FanDuel-9.5 -10555.5 -106-335+265
LowVig.ag-9 -11155 -108-360+289
MyBookie.ag-9 -11055.5 -110-350+265
Pinnacle-9 -10655.5 +101-345+284

Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis +9.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Memphis to win · +270 at TOM
We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 25.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -344 here against -297 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-176
FPI-8.0-234
Sagarin-9.5-275
Massey-2.0-125
Market (11 books)-9.0-344
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMemphis Tigers +9.0-107-119+2.6%
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+270+243+2.1%
TotalOver 55.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus; moneyline -344 here against -297 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at Illinois
CFB 2:30pm
Over 51
should be 52.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.5 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 5, but at +195 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Illinois →
Market
Illinois by 6TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Illinois by 32.9 pts our side
FPI
Illinois by 32.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Illinois by 92.9 pts against us
Massey
Illinois by 23.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Illinois by 50.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Duke. Sagarin at Illinois by 9 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois by 5opened Illinois by 6now Illinois by 6MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM, Over -112
The Four
SP+ pace
60.19.1 pts over the market
Massey
52.91.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.55.5 pts over the market
Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.5opened 53.5now 51MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLDuke ML
TOM-6 -11551 -112-245+195
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢51.5 -116 52¢-229 68¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-6 -10651.5 -112-226+195
All 13 books
Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLDuke ML
TOM-6 -11551 -112-245+195
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢51.5 -116 52¢-229 68¢+189 33¢
BetMGM-6 -11551.5 -108-235+195
BetOnline.ag-6 -11551 -112-245+203
BetRivers-5.5 -11351.5 -112-215+165
BetUS-6 -11551.5 -110-225+190
Bovada-6 -10551.5 -115-230+190
DraftKings-6 -10551.5 -112-230+190
Fanatics-6 -11051.5 -110-235+190
FanDuel-5.5 -11551.5 -110-235+190
LowVig.ag-6 -10651.5 -108-245+203
MyBookie.ag-6 -11051.5 -110-244+194
Pinnacle-6 -10651.5 -112-226+195

Marked: best for Duke, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke +6.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Duke to win · +195 at TOM
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 5.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -234 here against -204 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-139
FPI-3.0-140
Sagarin-9.0-260
Massey-2.0-125
Market (11 books)-6.0-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.056.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineDuke Blue Devils ML+195+173+2.8%
SpreadDuke Blue Devils +6.0-105-114+2.1%
TotalOver 51.0-112-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -234 here against -204 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA
CFB 6:15pm
Under 54.5
should be 53.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53
A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 2.9 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 54.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San Diego State too: market says UCLA by 13, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 11.5, but at -107 that's too thin.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore UCLA →
Market
UCLA by 13TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
UCLA by 8.54.7 pts our side
FPI
UCLA by 67 pts our side
Sagarin
UCLA by 163.1 pts against us
Massey
UCLA by 310.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
UCLA by 11.51.7 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean San Diego State. Sagarin at UCLA by 16 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 11.5opened UCLA by 11now UCLA by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.92.6 pts under the market
Massey
51.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.62.9 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 51.6now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-13 -11354.5 -110-510+360
Pinnacle-13.5 -10654 -108-538+413
All 12 books
UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-13 -11354.5 -110-510+360
BetMGM-13 -10854.5 -108-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11354.5 -110-510+390
BetRivers-12.5 -11054.5 -110-590+375
BetUS-13 -11554.5 -110-510+395
Bovada-13.5 -11054 -110-575+400
DraftKings-13.5 -10854.5 -108-500+380
Fanatics-13.5 -11054 -110-525+390
FanDuel-13.5 -11054.5 -106-630+450
LowVig.ag-13 -10954.5 -108-510+390
MyBookie.ag-13 -11054 -110-549+390
Pinnacle-13.5 -10654 -108-538+413

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +13.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
San Diego State to win · +360 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -488 here against -426 consensus.

BetRivers still has UCLA -12.5 while Pinnacle is at UCLA by 13.5.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-244
FPI-6.0-190
Sagarin-16.0-616
Massey-3.0-135
Market (11 books)-13.0-488
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +13.0-107-114+1.6%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+360+341priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 19:11; total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus; moneyline -488 here against -426 consensus.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at Minnesota
CFB 2:30pm
Under 54.5
should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 55
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 54.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Minnesota too: market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 1, but at -106 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -106
The Four
SP+
Minnesota by 2.52.4 pts our side
FPI
Mississippi State by 44.1 pts against us
Sagarin
Minnesota by 33.1 pts our side
Massey
Minnesota by 22.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Minnesota by 10.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Minnesota. FPI at Mississippi State by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Minnesota by 1opened a pick'emnow a pick'emSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.4on the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
51.53 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.1 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.5opened 55.6now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1.1 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.1 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMississippi State ML
TOMPK -10654.5 -110
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢54.5 -107 50¢-107 50¢-112 51¢
Pinnacle+1 -10955 -107-104-108
All 13 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMississippi State ML
TOMPK -10654.5 -110
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢54.5 -107 50¢-107 50¢-112 51¢
BetMGM-1 -10554.5 -112-110-108
BetOnline.agPK -10654.5 -110
BetRivers-0.5 -11455.5 -108-114-109
BetUS+1 -11054.5 -110+100-120
Bovada+1 -11555 -110-110-110
DraftKings+1.5 -11554.5 -112-105-115
Fanatics+1.5 -11555 -110-110-110
FanDuel+1.5 -12254.5 -115-110-110
LowVig.agPK -10254.5 -108
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11054.5 -110-106-115
Pinnacle+1 -10955 -107-104-108

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota PK · -106 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Minnesota to win · -108
We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 48.
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread PK here against +0.8 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.

BetMGM still has Mississippi State +1.0 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 1. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onMinnesota by 140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-129
FPI+4.0+154
Sagarin-3.0-139
Massey-2.0-125
Market (11 books)PK+102
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers PK-106-110+0.9%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML-108-110+0.5%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against +0.8 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball State
CFB 1:00pm
Stony Brook +13.5
should be Stony Brook +11.5 · getting 2 pts · was +15.5
A Little Nasty · Stony BrookBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Stony Brook. Market says Ball State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ball State by 11.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Stony Brook than the bookmore Ball State →
Market
Ball State by 13.5TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Ball State by 6.57.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ball State by 11.52.1 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Stony Brook. The Nasty Number is 2.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ball State by 11.5opened Ball State by 13.5now Ball State by 13.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLStony Brook ML
TOM-13.5 -11552 -110
Pinnacle-14 -10953 -109-642+420
All 11 books
Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLStony Brook ML
TOM-13.5 -11552 -110
BetMGM-14 -10853.5 -110-600+425
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -11552 -110
BetRivers-14 -11353.5 -109-835+525
Bovada-14 -11053 -110-625+430
DraftKings-13.5 -11552.5 -115-550+410
Fanatics-14 -11053 -110-600+440
FanDuel-14.5 -10552.5 -110-630+450
LowVig.ag-13.5 -11552 -110
MyBookie.ag-676+420
Pinnacle-14 -10953 -109-642+420

Marked: best for Stony Brook, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stony Brook +13.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Stony Brook to win · +427
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Stony Brook +13.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -15.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward Stony Brook, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBall State by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Stony Brook
FPIdoesn't rate Stony Brook
Sagarin-6.5-197
Masseyrates Stony Brook and Ball State on different scales
Market (10 books)-13.5-457
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadStony Brook Seawolves +13.5-105-115+2.3%
MoneylineStony Brook Seawolves ML+427+346priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 3.6.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.9 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah
CFB 9:15pm
Over 55.5
should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 pts · was 57
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Utah →
Market
Utah by 11.5TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
Utah by 120.4 pts against us
FPI
Utah by 110.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Utah by 10.51.1 pts our side
Massey
Utah by 38.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Utah by 110.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Arkansas. SP+ at Utah by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 11opened Utah by 13.5now Utah by 11.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arkansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
64.79.2 pts over the market
Massey
59.43.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
626.5 pts over the market
Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 62opened 56.5now 55.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLArkansas ML
TOM-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+340
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢55.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-12 -11355.5 -108-498+388
All 12 books
Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLArkansas ML
TOM-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+340
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢55.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
BetMGM-12.5 -10855.5 -108-500+380
BetOnline.ag-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+364
BetRivers-12.5 -10955.5 -109-590+400
BetUS-11.5 -11555.5 -110-470+370
Bovada-12.5 -11555.5 -110-525+375
DraftKings-12.5 -11055.5 -108-500+380
Fanatics-12.5 -11055.5 -110-500+375
FanDuel-12.5 -11055.5 -110-520+390
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11055.5 -110-526+370
Pinnacle-12 -11355.5 -108-498+388

Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +11.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +340 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 6.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Arkansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 1140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-368
FPI-11.0-335
Sagarin-10.5-309
Massey-3.0-136
Market (10 books)-11.5-450
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.562.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +11.5-103-106+0.8%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+340+339priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-131shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-07 15:20; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane
CFB 6:00pm
Over 48.5
should be 49.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 50
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.4 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulane by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Tulane by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 9.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Tulane by 6
FPI
Tulane by 11.5
Sagarin
Tulane by 10.5
Massey
Tulane by 3
Nasty Number
Tulane by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulane by 9.5opened Tulane by 10.5now Tulane by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 10.5 to Tulane by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.94.4 pts over the market
Massey
49.61.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.32.8 pts over the market
Over 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.3opened 50.9now 48.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.4 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-9.5 -10548.5 -110-370+280
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢50.5 +109 46¢-340 76¢
Pinnacle-10 +10248.5 -108-375+305
All 13 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-9.5 -10548.5 -110-370+280
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢50.5 +109 46¢-340 76¢
BetMGM-9.5 -11049.5 -105-375+300
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10548.5 -110-370+296
BetRivers-10 -10949.5 -109-420+300
BetUS-9.5 -11048.5 -110-370+295
Bovada-9.5 -10548.5 -110-390+295
DraftKings-9.5 -11548.5 -112-375+295
Fanatics-9.5 -11048.5 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -10848.5 -110-350+275
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10148.5 -108-370+296
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11049 -110-391+295
Pinnacle-10 +10248.5 -108-375+305

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +9.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · +280 at TOM
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.8 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Tulane).

Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $471 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -354 here against -316 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.0-193
FPI-11.5-342
Sagarin-10.5-311
Massey-3.0-134
Market (11 books)-9.5-354
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+280+271+0.6%
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +9.5-115-108-1.6%
TotalOver 48.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulane Green Wave since 09-07 14:15; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus; moneyline -354 here against -316 consensus.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech
CFB 6:00pm
Over 55.5
should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Georgia Tech too: market says Tennessee by 12, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 11, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Georgia Tech →
Market
Tennessee by 12TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 164 pts against us
FPI
Tennessee by 9.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Tennessee by 8.53.7 pts our side
Massey
Georgia Tech by 1.513.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 110.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Georgia Tech. SP+ at Tennessee by 16 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 11opened Tennessee by 13now Tennessee by 12SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
58.73.2 pts over the market
Massey
57.11.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.92.4 pts over the market
Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 55.3now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLTennessee ML
TOM+12 -11055.5 -110+350-480
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢55.5 -116 52¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -10956 -103+385-494
All 13 books
Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLTennessee ML
TOM+12 -11055.5 -110+350-480
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢55.5 -116 52¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
BetMGM+12 -11055.5 -110+360-475
BetOnline.ag+12 -11055.5 -110+370-480
BetRivers+12 -11255.5 -110+390-560
BetUS+12 -11055.5 -110+378-480
Bovada+12 -11055.5 -110+370-510
DraftKings+12.5 -11255.5 -110+360-470
Fanatics+12.5 -11055.5 -110+375-500
FanDuel+11.5 -10455.5 -110+375-500
LowVig.ag+12 -10655.5 -108+370-480
MyBookie.ag+12 -11055.5 -110+360-500
Pinnacle+12.5 -10956 -103+385-494

Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech +12.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · +350 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 37% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +12.0 here against +12.3 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++16.0+608
FPI+9.5+283
Sagarin+8.5+244
Massey-1.5-115
Market (11 books)+12.0+366
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.557.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.0-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+350+335priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +12.0 here against +12.3 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYU
CFB 2:30pm
Over 49
should be 49.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore BYU →
Market
BYU by 6.5TOM, -125
The Four
SP+
BYU by 6.5
FPI
BYU by 9.5
Sagarin
BYU by 8
Massey
BYU by 2.5
Nasty Number
BYU by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number BYU by 6.5opened BYU by 7.5now BYU by 6.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from BYU by 7.5 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.82.8 pts over the market
Massey
51.92.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.82.8 pts over the market
Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 49.5now 49MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

BYU spreadTotal (over)BYU MLArizona ML
TOM-6.5 -12549 -110-265+205
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢
Pinnacle-7 -10749.5 +100-276+233
All 13 books
BYU spreadTotal (over)BYU MLArizona ML
TOM-6.5 -12549 -110-265+205
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢
BetMGM-7 -11048.5 -110-275+220
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -12549 -110-265+219
BetRivers-7.5 -10948.5 -109-335+250
BetUS-7 -11048.5 -110-265+223
Bovada-7 -11049 -110-280+230
DraftKings-7 -10848.5 -115-270+220
Fanatics-7 -11549 -110-280+225
FanDuel-6.5 -12248.5 -106-275+220
LowVig.ag-6.5 -12249 -108-265+219
MyBookie.ag-7 -11048.5 -110-271+210
Pinnacle-7 -10749.5 +100-276+233

Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

BYU -6.5 · -125 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
BYU to win · -265 at TOM
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.8 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 84°F.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats ML, only $361 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -7.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-9.5-278
Sagarin-8.0-240
Massey-2.5-128
Market (11 books)-6.5-254
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.051.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBYU Cougars -6.5-125+100-5.6%
MoneylineBYU Cougars ML-265-205-5.4%
TotalOver 49.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -7.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UAB
CFB 2:30pm
Over 53.5
should be 55.1 · getting 1.6 pts · was 56
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 9, the Nasty Number says UAB by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore UAB →
Market
UAB by 9TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
UAB by 19.5
FPI
UAB by 12
Sagarin
UAB by 8
Massey
UAB by 2.5
Nasty Number
UAB by 9.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UAB by 9.5opened UAB by 10now UAB by 9MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UAB by 10 to UAB by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
60.87.3 pts over the market
Massey
58.95.4 pts over the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.85.3 pts over the market
Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 55.5now 53.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLUL Monroe ML
TOM-9 -11453.5 -115-350+275
Kalshi-9.5 -112 51¢53.5 -112 51¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9 -11054 -111-374+304
All 13 books
UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLUL Monroe ML
TOM-9 -11453.5 -115-350+275
Kalshi-9.5 -112 51¢53.5 -112 51¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
BetMGM-8.5 -11854.5 -105-350+290
BetOnline.ag-9 -11453.5 -115-350+280
BetRivers-9.5 -11054.5 -108-335+245
BetUS-9 -11554 -110-350+280
Bovada-9.5 -11054 -115-390+295
DraftKings-9.5 -11254.5 -110-360+285
Fanatics-9.5 -11054 -110-375+290
FanDuel-8.5 -11054.5 -105-360+280
LowVig.ag-9 -10653.5 -114-350+280
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11054.5 -110-380+290
Pinnacle-9 -11054 -111-374+304

Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UAB -9.0 · -114 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UAB to win · -350 at TOM
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.
Not Nasty
the Over 53.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward UL Monroe). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUAB by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.5-951
FPI-12.0-372
Sagarin-8.0-232
Massey-2.5-132
Market (11 books)-9.0-335
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.558.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUAB Blazers -9.0-114+106-4.8%
MoneylineUAB Blazers ML-350-272-4.7%
TotalOver 53.5-115-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-06 20:50; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North Texas
CFB 2:45pm
Over 57.5
should be 59.5 · getting 2 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 57.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore North Texas →
Market
UNLV by 3TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
UNLV by 13.5
FPI
UNLV by 7
Sagarin
UNLV by 3
Massey
North Texas by 2.5
Nasty Number
UNLV by 3.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 3.5opened UNLV by 5now UNLV by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UNLV by 5 to UNLV by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM, Over -120
The Four
SP+ pace
65.68.1 pts over the market
Massey
62.65.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
64.16.6 pts over the market
Over 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 64.1opened 57.5now 57.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLUNLV ML
TOM+3 -10757.5 -120+130-155
Kalshi+2.557.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+3 -10358 -111+135-153
All 13 books
North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLUNLV ML
TOM+3 -10757.5 -120+130-155
Kalshi+2.557.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
BetMGM+3 -10558.5 -102+135-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -10757.5 -120+135-155
BetRivers+3 -10757.5 -120+133-165
BetUS+3 -10557.5 -110+134-155
Bovada+3 -10558 -115+135-160
DraftKings+3 -10557.5 -120+136-162
Fanatics+3 -11058.5 -105+125-150
FanDuel+3.5 -12258.5 -105+134-162
LowVig.ag+3 -10357.5 -119+135-155
MyBookie.ag+3 -11058 -110+132-163
Pinnacle+3 -10358 -111+135-153

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UNLV -3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UNLV to win · -155 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -120 at TOM
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 63. That's 6.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -120 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green +2.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.5+435
FPI+7.0+207
Sagarin+3.0+137
Massey-2.5-127
Market (11 books)+3.0+136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.564.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUNLV Rebels -3.0-113-106-1.7%
MoneylineUNLV Rebels ML-155-146-1.5%
TotalOver 57.5-120-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 15:46.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State
CFB 6:00pm
Over 54.5
should be 55.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kennesaw State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Kennesaw State by 8.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →
Market
Kennesaw State by 8.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Kennesaw State by 17.5
FPI
Kennesaw State by 9.5
Sagarin
Kennesaw State by 8.5
Massey
Kennesaw State by 2
Nasty Number
Kennesaw State by 8.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kennesaw State by 8.5opened Kennesaw State by 9.5now Kennesaw State by 8.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
58.33.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.40.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.92.4 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 4.2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.9opened 50.2now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 4.2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 4.2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Kennesaw State spreadTotal (over)Kennesaw State MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-8.5 -10554.5 -115-315+240
Pinnacle-9 +10154 -114-331+274
All 12 books
Kennesaw State spreadTotal (over)Kennesaw State MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-8.5 -10554.5 -115-315+240
BetMGM-8 -11054.5 -110-325+260
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -10554.5 -115-315+256
BetRivers-8 -11354.5 -115-335+255
BetUS-8 -11054.5 -110-325+265
Bovada-8 -11054.5 -110-340+270
DraftKings-8.5 -11254.5 -108-340+270
Fanatics-8 -11054.5 -110-330+260
FanDuel-7.5 -11054.5 -110-300+240
LowVig.ag-8.5 -10154.5 -114-315+256
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11054.5 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-9 +10154 -114-331+274

Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State -8.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · -315 at TOM
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67.
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia State).

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKennesaw State by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-738
FPI-9.5-274
Sagarin-8.5-245
Massey-2.0-127
Market (11 books)-8.5-301
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.556.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls -8.5-105+112-4.1%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML-315-252-4.3%
TotalOver 54.5-115-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-07 09:56; total has moved up 1.9.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic
CFB 6:30pm
Over 59.5
should be 61.1 · getting 1.6 pts · was 58.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4, the Nasty Number says Navy by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →
Market
Navy by 4TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Navy by 13.5
FPI
Navy by 12.5
Sagarin
Navy by 5
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 1.5
Nasty Number
Navy by 5.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Navy by 5.5opened Navy by 6now Navy by 4SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Over -107
The Four
SP+ pace
67.78.2 pts over the market
Massey
622.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
64.95.4 pts over the market
Over 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 64.9opened 58.5now 59.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLNavy ML
TOM+4 -11059.5 -107+160-190
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢59.5 -107 50¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -11059.5 -108+167-191
All 13 books
Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLNavy ML
TOM+4 -11059.5 -107+160-190
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢59.5 -107 50¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
BetMGM+4.5 -12058.5 -110+160-200
BetOnline.ag+4 -11059.5 -107+165-190
BetRivers+4.5 -11358.5 -114+150-195
BetUS+4.5 -11059.5 -110+167-195
Bovada+4 -10559.5 -110+165-195
DraftKings+4 -10859.5 -110+164-198
Fanatics+4.5 -11559.5 -110+160-195
FanDuel+4.5 -11058.5 -115+160-194
LowVig.ag+4 -10659.5 -105+165-190
MyBookie.ag+5 -11059.5 -110+166-208
Pinnacle+4.5 -11059.5 -108+167-191

Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -4.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Navy to win · -190 at TOM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.5 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 68 and Massey projects 62. That's 5.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 38% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNavy by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.5+451
FPI+12.5+396
Sagarin+5.0+174
Massey-1.5-115
Market (11 books)+4.0+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.564.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen -4.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML-190-179-1.4%
TotalOver 59.5-107-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at Kentucky
CFB 2:30pm
Kentucky to win
our data says 27 in 100 · +290 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →
Market
Alabama by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 9.5
FPI
Alabama by 14
Sagarin
Alabama by 8.5
Massey
Kentucky by 1.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 9.5opened Alabama by 9.5now Alabama by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.44.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.53.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.40.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.4opened 48.9now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.9 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLAlabama ML
TOM+9.5 -11047 -110+290-380
Kalshi+9.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
Pinnacle+9 -11047.5 -103+291-356
All 13 books
Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLAlabama ML
TOM+9.5 -11047 -110+290-380
Kalshi+9.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
BetMGM+9 -10847.5 -105+290-350
BetOnline.ag+9.5 -11047 -110+303-380
BetRivers+10 -11548 -109+310-455
BetUS+9 -11047 -110+305-380
Bovada+8.5 -11047 -115+285-370
DraftKings+8.5 -10846.5 -115+285-360
Fanatics+8.5 -11047.5 -105+290-375
FanDuel+9.5 -11547.5 -105+275-350
LowVig.ag+9.5 -10647 -108+303-380
MyBookie.ag+9 -11047 -110+290-380
Pinnacle+9 -11047.5 -103+291-356

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +9.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Kentucky to win · +290 at TOM
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 22.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky to win · +290 at TOM. A price bet, Kentucky loses more often than not.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 43% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.0 consensus.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

BetRivers still has Kentucky +10.0 while Pinnacle is at Alabama by 9.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+273
FPI+14.0+460
Sagarin+8.5+245
Massey-1.5-116
Market (11 books)+9.5+303
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.046.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+290+273+1.2%
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +9.5-110-107-0.6%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-06 22:10; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.0 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa
CFB 6:30pm
Iowa -14
should be Iowa -14.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -14.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa by 14, the Nasty Number says Iowa by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Iowa by 14TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Iowa by 173.1 pts our side
FPI
Iowa by 14on the market
Sagarin
Iowa by 17.53.4 pts our side
Massey
Iowa by 2.511.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Iowa by 14.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Iowa. Massey at Iowa by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa by 14.5opened Iowa by 14.5now Iowa by 14SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
40.8on the market
Massey
44.63.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.71.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.7opened 41.3now 41SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLIowa State ML
TOM-14 -11041 -115-600+430
Pinnacle-14 -10941 -116-605+455
All 12 books
Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLIowa State ML
TOM-14 -11041 -115-600+430
BetMGM-14 -11041.5 +100-600+450
BetOnline.ag-14 -11041 -115-600+446
BetRivers-14.5 -11041.5 -108-715+460
BetUS-14 -11041 -115-600+450
Bovada-14 -11541.5 -110-625+430
DraftKings-14 -11041.5 -108-625+455
Fanatics-14 -11041.5 -110-600+440
FanDuel-14.5 -10241.5 -104-690+480
LowVig.ag-14 -10641 -114-600+446
MyBookie.ag-14 -11041.5 -110-752+500
Pinnacle-14 -10941 -116-605+455

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · -600 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -478 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-700
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-17.5-728
Massey-2.5-131
Market (11 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.042.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -14.0-110-114+0.9%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-600-493priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.0-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -478 consensus.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConn
CFB 2:30pm
UConn +11
should be UConn +11 · was +12.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 11, the Nasty Number says Maryland by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore UConn →
Market
Maryland by 11TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Maryland by 132.2 pts against us
FPI
Maryland by 82.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Maryland by 13.52.4 pts against us
Massey
UConn by 1.512.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Maryland by 110.1 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean UConn. SP+ at Maryland by 13 and Sagarin at Maryland by 13.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Maryland by 11opened Maryland by 13.5now Maryland by 11MonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.53 pts under the market
Massey
55.63.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.6on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 52.5now 52.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLMaryland ML
TOM+11 -10552.5 -115+340-450
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢52.5 -103 49¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -11252 -117+357-452
All 13 books
UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLMaryland ML
TOM+11 -10552.5 -115+340-450
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢52.5 -103 49¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
BetMGM+11.5 -11052.5 -108+350-450
BetOnline.ag+11 -10552.5 -115+350-450
BetRivers+12 -11352.5 -115+410-590
BetUS+11.5 -11052.5 -115+355-450
Bovada+11.5 -11052.5 -110+345-470
DraftKings+11.5 -10852.5 -112+360-470
Fanatics+11.5 -11052.5 -110+360-475
FanDuel+11.5 -11052.5 -105+350-465
LowVig.ag+11 -10152.5 -114+350-450
MyBookie.ag+11.5 -11052 -110+360-490
Pinnacle+12.5 -11252 -117+357-452

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +11.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +340 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +11.0 · -105 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +12.5, now +12.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.0 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Maryland -11.0 while Pinnacle is at Maryland by 12.5.

Full detail
We settle onMaryland by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+430
FPI+8.0+241
Sagarin+13.5+443
Massey-1.5-119
Market (11 books)+11.0+355
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +11.0-105-106+0.2%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+340+328priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-115-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UConn Huskies since 09-07 23:25.

TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.0 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at Georgia
CFB 11:45am
No bet
market says Georgia by 40.5, our data says Georgia by 40.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 40.5.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 40.5TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 44
FPI
Georgia by 38.5
Sagarin
Georgia by 42
Massey
Georgia by 4.5
Nasty Number
Georgia by 40.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 40.5opened Georgia by 39now Georgia by 40.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 39 to Georgia by 40.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.62.1 pts over the market
Massey
54.41.1 pts under the market
Weather
-1.071% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
550.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55opened 53.4now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 53.4 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-40.5 -11455.5 -115
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-40 -10955.5 -112
All 12 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-40.5 -11455.5 -115
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-40.5 -11055.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-40.5 -11455.5 -115
BetRivers-41 -11255.5 -114
BetUS-40.5 -11055.5 -115
Bovada-40 -11056 -105
DraftKings-40.5 -10555.5 -112
Fanatics-40.5 -11055.5 -115
FanDuel-40.5 -11055.5 -112
LowVig.ag-40.5 -11055.5 -114
Pinnacle-40 -10955.5 -112

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +40.5 · -106 at TOM
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 55.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -40.5 here against -40.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 40.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-44.0
FPI-38.5
Sagarin-42.0
Massey-4.5-157
Market (10 books)-40.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.555.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.5-106-161+10.2%
TotalUnder 55.5-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-06 17:27; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread -40.5 here against -40.2 consensus.

The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central Michigan
CFB 12:00pm
No bet
market says Central Michigan by 18.5, our data says Central Michigan by 16.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Central Michigan by 18.5.

The spread

← more Colgate than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 18.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Central Michigan by 11
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 16.52.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Central Michigan by 16.5opened Central Michigan by 21now Central Michigan by 18.5FriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Central Michigan by 21 to Central Michigan by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLColgate ML
TOM-18.5 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi49.5 -112 51¢-1429 93¢+1074
Pinnacle-19.5 -10349.5 -104-1433+726
All 12 books
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLColgate ML
TOM-18.5 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi49.5 -112 51¢-1429 93¢+1074
BetMGM-18 -11249.5 -105-1400+900
BetOnline.ag-18.5 -11049.5 -110
BetRivers-19.5 -11248.5 -110-2000+900
Bovada-18.5 -11049 -110-1400+750
DraftKings-18.5 -10849.5 -105-1600+900
Fanatics-18.5 -11049 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-19.5 -11049.5 -105-1800+920
LowVig.ag-18.5 -11049.5 -110
MyBookie.ag-18.5 -11049 -110-2000+820
Pinnacle-19.5 -10349.5 -104-1433+726

Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colgate +18.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Colgate to win · +900
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -25.0, now -19.0 (the market moved 5.9 toward Colgate). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 16.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Colgate
FPIdoesn't rate Colgate
Sagarin-11.0-340
Masseyrates Colgate and Central Michigan on different scales
Market (10 books)-18.5-828
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColgate Raiders +18.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineColgate Raiders ML+900+633priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 5.9 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.1 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)
CFB 12:00pm
No bet
market says Miami (OH) by 30.5, our data says Miami (OH) by 25.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami (OH) by 30.5.

The spread

← more Holy Cross than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 30.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 14.5
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 25.54.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 25.5opened Miami (OH) by 30.5now Miami (OH) by 30.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLHoly Cross ML
TOM-30.5 -11047 -115
Kalshi46.5 -126 54¢
Pinnacle-30.5 -11147 -113
All 11 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLHoly Cross ML
TOM-30.5 -11047 -115
Kalshi46.5 -126 54¢
BetMGM-31 -10846.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-30.5 -11047 -115
BetRivers-30.5 -11448.5 -107
Bovada-30.5 -11047 -115
DraftKings-30.5 -11247.5 -105+2000
Fanatics-30.5 -11047.5 -110+2800
FanDuel-31.5 -10447.5 -108+2200
LowVig.ag-30.5 -11047 -115
Pinnacle-30.5 -11147 -113

Marked: best for the Miami (OH) side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Holy Cross +30.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Holy Cross to win · +2465
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -31.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross).

Kalshi thin: Holy Cross Crusaders ML, only $407 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 25.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Holy Cross
FPIdoesn't rate Holy Cross
Sagarin-14.5-495
Masseyrates Holy Cross and Miami (OH) on different scales
Market (9 books)-30.5-2580
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHoly Cross Crusaders +30.5-110-103-1.8%
MoneylineHoly Cross Crusaders ML+2465+2354priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross Crusaders since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 4.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma State
CFB 12:30pm
No bet
market says Oregon by 24.5, our data says Oregon by 23.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 24.5.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore Oklahoma State →
Market
Oregon by 24.5TOM, -106
The Four
SP+
Oregon by 20.5
FPI
Oregon by 22
Sagarin
Oregon by 23.5
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
Oregon by 23.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 23.5opened Oregon by 22.5now Oregon by 24.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Oregon by 22.5 to Oregon by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.81.2 pts under the market
Massey
52.42.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.11.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.1opened 57.8now 55SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.8 points since it opened, from 57.8 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Oklahoma State spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma State MLOregon ML
TOM+24.5 -10655 -115
Pinnacle+23.5 -10555.5 -103+1093-1913
All 11 books
Oklahoma State spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma State MLOregon ML
TOM+24.5 -10655 -115
BetMGM+24 -11054.5 -125+1300-2500
BetOnline.ag+24 -10655 -115+1196-2700
BetUS+24 -10555 -110+1225-2700
Bovada+23.5 -11055 -110+950-2000
DraftKings+24.5 -11855.5 -105+1100-2100
Fanatics+23.5 -11055 -110+1200-2200
FanDuel+23.5 -10554.5 -115+1160-2800
LowVig.ag+24 -10655 -114+1196-2700
MyBookie.ag+23.5 -11154.5 -118+950-2000
Pinnacle+23.5 -10555.5 -103+1093-1913

Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma State +24.5 · -106 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oklahoma State to win · +1178
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 88°F, 30% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +24.5 here against +23.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 23.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.5+1122
FPI+22.0+1383
Sagarin+23.5+1721
MasseyPK-102
Market (10 books)+24.5+1155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.053.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOklahoma State Cowboys +24.5-106+126-7.1%
MoneylineOklahoma State Cowboys ML+1178+1714priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-105-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +24.5 here against +23.6 consensus.

The line is +24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at Akron
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Akron by 27.5, our data says Akron by 25
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Akron by 27.5.

The spread

← more Robert Morris than the bookmore Akron →
Market
Akron by 27.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Akron by 16
Nasty Number
Akron by 252.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Akron by 25opened Akron by 27.5now Akron by 27.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLRobert Morris ML
TOM-27.5 -11046.5 -112
Kalshi46.5 -112 51¢-3476 97¢
Pinnacle-28 -11246.5 -109
All 11 books
Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLRobert Morris ML
TOM-27.5 -11046.5 -112
Kalshi46.5 -112 51¢-3476 97¢
BetMGM-27.5 -10845.5 -120+1900
BetOnline.ag-27.5 -11046.5 -112
BetRivers-27.5 -11346.5 -110
Bovada-28 -11046.5 -110
DraftKings-27.5 -11046.5 -110+1500
Fanatics-27.5 -11546.5 -110+2500
FanDuel-27.5 -11446.5 -110+2200
LowVig.ag-27.5 -11046.5 -112
Pinnacle-28 -11246.5 -109

Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Robert Morris +27.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Robert Morris to win · +2040
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -28.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Robert Morris).

Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $266 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAkron by 2521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Robert Morris
FPIdoesn't rate Robert Morris
Sagarin-16.0-608
Masseyrates Robert Morris and Akron on different scales
Market (9 books)-27.5-2021
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRobert Morris Colonials +27.5-110+121-7.1%
MoneylineRobert Morris Colonials ML+2040+2157priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.8 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at Syracuse
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore Syracuse →
Market
Syracuse by 3.5TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
Syracuse by 8.5
FPI
Syracuse by 8.5
Sagarin
Syracuse by 1.5
Massey
Syracuse by 2.5
Nasty Number
Syracuse by 40.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Syracuse by 4opened Syracuse by 3now Syracuse by 3.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Syracuse by 3 to Syracuse by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.62.9 pts under the market
Massey
57.30.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
55.41.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.4opened 57now 56.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Syracuse spreadTotal (over)Syracuse MLCalifornia ML
TOM-3.5 -11456.5 -115-180+150
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢57.5 -103 49¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10957 -105-180+157
All 13 books
Syracuse spreadTotal (over)Syracuse MLCalifornia ML
TOM-3.5 -11456.5 -115-180+150
Kalshi-3.5 -116 52¢57.5 -103 49¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
BetMGM-3.5 -11056.5 -112-185+150
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11456.5 -115-180+157
BetRivers-3.5 -11457 -112-190+150
BetUS-3.5 -11557 -115-180+155
Bovada-3.5 -11557 -105-180+155
DraftKings-3.5 -10856.5 -115-192+160
Fanatics-3.5 -11557 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -10856.5 -114-170+140
LowVig.ag-3.5 -10656.5 -114-180+157
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11057 -110-186+150
Pinnacle-3.5 -10957 -105-180+157

Marked: best for the Syracuse side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse -3.5 · -114 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Syracuse to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Under 56.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSyracuse by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-244
FPI-8.5-256
Sagarin-1.5-114
Massey-2.5-129
Market (11 books)-3.5-172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.555.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSyracuse Orange -3.5-114+105-4.6%
MoneylineSyracuse Orange ML-180-151-4.1%
TotalUnder 56.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut at Toledo
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Toledo by 36.5, our data says Toledo by 32.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 36.5.

The spread

← more Central Connecticut than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
Toledo by 36.5
The Four
Sagarin
Toledo by 24
Nasty Number
Toledo by 32.53.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 32.5opened Toledo by 36now Toledo by 36.5FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 36 to Toledo by 36.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Central Connecticut +36.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Central Connecticut to win · +3500
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -35.0, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Toledo).

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 32.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Central Connecticut
FPIdoesn't rate Central Connecticut
Sagarin-24.0-1893
Masseyrates Central Connecticut and Toledo on different scales
Market (7 books)-36.5-3582
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Connecticut Blue Devils +36.5-110+112-5.2%
MoneylineCentral Connecticut Blue Devils ML+3500+7436priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 3.6.

The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at Colorado
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Colorado by 39, our data says Colorado by 33.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado by 39.

The spread

← more Weber State than the bookmore Colorado →
Market
Colorado by 39TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Colorado by 26
Nasty Number
Colorado by 33.55.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colorado by 33.5opened Colorado by 34.5now Colorado by 39FriSat

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Colorado by 34.5 to Colorado by 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLWeber State ML
TOM-39 -10557 -105
Pinnacle-38 -11456.5 -120
All 9 books
Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLWeber State ML
TOM-39 -10557 -105
BetMGM-37 -10856.5 -105
BetRivers-38.5 -10857.5 -115
Bovada-38 -11557 -115
DraftKings-38.5 -10257.5 -108+2200
Fanatics-38.5 -10557.5 -110
FanDuel-36.5 -11557.5 -108
LowVig.ag-39 -10557 -105
Pinnacle-38 -11456.5 -120

Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weber State +39.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Weber State to win · +2200
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -38.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Colorado).

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onColorado by 33.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Weber State
FPIdoesn't rate Weber State
Sagarin-26.0-2445
Masseyrates Weber State and Colorado on different scales
Market (8 books)-39.0-2272
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWeber State Wildcats +39.0-115-101-3.1%
MoneylineWeber State Wildcats ML+2200+8899priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 3.3.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.0 consensus.

The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan State
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Michigan State by 17.5, our data says Michigan State by 18
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Michigan State →
Market
Michigan State by 17.5TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
Michigan State by 19
FPI
Michigan State by 19
Sagarin
Michigan State by 21
Massey
Michigan State by 3.5
Nasty Number
Michigan State by 180.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan State by 18opened Michigan State by 17now Michigan State by 17.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Michigan State by 17 to Michigan State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
50.60.6 pts over the market
Massey
50.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.40.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 51now 50MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-17.5 -10450 -105
Pinnacle-17.5 +10050 -106-944+647
All 12 books
Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-17.5 -10450 -105
BetMGM-17 -11249.5 -110-900+650
BetOnline.ag-17.5 -10450 -105-925+624
BetRivers-17.5 -10949.5 -114-1250+650
BetUS-17.5 -10550 -110-925+615
Bovada-17 -11550 -110-1000+625
DraftKings-17.5 -10849.5 -110-850+575
Fanatics-17.5 -10549.5 -110-950+650
FanDuel-17.5 -10649.5 -110-1000+640
LowVig.ag-17.5 +10050 -103-925+624
MyBookie.ag-17.5 -11049.5 -110-1000+620
Pinnacle-17.5 +10050 -106-944+647

Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State -17.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · -944
We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan State by 1821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-877
FPI-19.0-902
Sagarin-21.0-1227
Massey-3.5-145
Market (11 books)-17.5-668
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.050.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans -17.5-104-122+4.0%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML-944-767priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre Dame
CFB 2:30pm
Under 54
should be 53.3 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Notre Dame →
Market
Notre Dame by 44.5TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 39.5
FPI
Notre Dame by 41.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 47.5
Massey
Notre Dame by 4.5
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 43.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 43.5opened Notre Dame by 44.5now Notre Dame by 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.32.7 pts under the market
Massey
50.33.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.83.2 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 53.5now 54SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Notre Dame spreadTotal (over)Notre Dame MLRice ML
TOM-44.5 -10454 -110
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-45 -10954.5 -107
All 12 books
Notre Dame spreadTotal (over)Notre Dame MLRice ML
TOM-44.5 -10454 -110
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-44.5 -11054.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-44.5 -10454 -110
BetRivers-44.5 -11455 -108
BetUS-44.5 -10554 -110
Bovada-45 -11054.5 -110
DraftKings-44.5 -11854.5 -108
Fanatics-44.5 -11554.5 -110
FanDuel-44.5 -11555.5 -104
LowVig.ag-44.5 -10654 -108
Pinnacle-45 -10954.5 -107

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +44.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

TOM: spread -44.5 here against -44.8 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 43.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-39.5
FPI-41.5
Sagarin-47.5
Massey-4.5-163
Market (10 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.050.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +44.5-116-173+9.6%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -44.5 here against -44.8 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Pittsburgh by 7, our data says Pittsburgh by 7
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 7, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Pittsburgh →
Market
Pittsburgh by 7TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Pittsburgh by 6.5
FPI
Pittsburgh by 9
Sagarin
Pittsburgh by 8.5
Massey
Pittsburgh by 2.5
Nasty Number
Pittsburgh by 70.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Pittsburgh by 7opened Pittsburgh by 7now Pittsburgh by 7MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.24.3 pts under the market
Massey
582.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.077% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.61.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.6opened 57now 55.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLUCF ML
TOM-7 -11555.5 -110-280+220
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢55.5 -103 49¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
Pinnacle-7 -11255 -110-277+234
All 13 books
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLUCF ML
TOM-7 -11555.5 -110-280+220
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢55.5 -103 49¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
BetMGM-7 -11555.5 -105-275+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11555.5 -110-280+230
BetRivers-7 -11356.5 -113-315+235
BetUS-7 -11555 -110-280+235
Bovada-7 -11555 -115-280+230
DraftKings-7 -11855.5 -105-278+225
Fanatics-7 -11555.5 -105-285+230
FanDuel-7.5 +10055.5 -110-280+225
LowVig.ag-7 -11155.5 -108-280+230
MyBookie.ag-7 -11055.5 -110-300+234
Pinnacle-7 -11255 -110-277+234

Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -7.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Pittsburgh to win · -280 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Not Nasty
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 58. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPittsburgh by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-9.0-261
Sagarin-8.5-245
Massey-2.5-131
Market (11 books)-7.0-268
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.553.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers -7.0-115+110-5.8%
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML-280-213-5.6%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at Massachusetts
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Massachusetts by 23.5, our data says Massachusetts by 20.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Massachusetts by 23.5.

The spread

← more Sacred Heart than the bookmore Massachusetts →
Market
Massachusetts by 23.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Massachusetts by 10
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 20.52.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 20.5opened Massachusetts by 23.5now Massachusetts by 23.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLSacred Heart ML
TOM-23.5 -10553.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-1684 94¢+1242
Pinnacle-23.5 -11053.5 -110-2394+992
All 12 books
Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLSacred Heart ML
TOM-23.5 -10553.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-1684 94¢+1242
BetMGM-23.5 -10853.5 -108-2000+1200
BetOnline.ag-23.5 -10553.5 -110
BetRivers-23.5 -11453.5 -115+1400
Bovada-23.5 -11053.5 -110-2500+1000
DraftKings-23.5 -11253.5 -112-2400+1200
Fanatics-23.5 -11053.5 -110-2200+1200
FanDuel-23.5 -11253.5 -110-2800+1160
LowVig.ag-23.5 -10553.5 -110
MyBookie.ag53.5 -110
Pinnacle-23.5 -11053.5 -110-2394+992

Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacred Heart +23.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacred Heart to win · +1200
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F.

The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 20.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Sacred Heart
FPIdoesn't rate Sacred Heart
Sagarin-10.0-288
Masseyrates Sacred Heart and Massachusetts on different scales
Market (10 books)-23.5-1122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacred Heart Pioneers +23.5-115+104-4.4%
MoneylineSacred Heart Pioneers ML+1200+1125priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas State
CFB 2:30pm
No bet
market says Texas State by 2.5, our data says Texas State by 1.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 1.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas State →
Market
Texas State by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
UTSA by 8.5
FPI
UTSA by 2
Sagarin
UTSA by 1.5
Massey
Texas State by 1.5
Nasty Number
Texas State by 1.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 1.5opened Texas State by 1.5now Texas State by 2.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas State by 1.5 to Texas State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
65TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
77.812.8 pts over the market
Massey
64.9on the market
Nasty Number
71.46.4 pts over the market
Over 65 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 71.4opened 64.5now 65MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLUTSA ML
TOM-2.5 -11065 -110-135+115
Pinnacle-2.5 -10765 -115-129+114
All 12 books
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLUTSA ML
TOM-2.5 -11065 -110-135+115
BetMGM-2.5 -11065.5 -108-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11065 -110-135+115
BetRivers-2 -11365.5 -118-129+104
BetUS-2.5 -11065 -110-135+115
Bovada-2.5 -11065.5 -110-130+110
DraftKings-2.5 -11565.5 -110-142+120
Fanatics-2.5 -11065.5 -112-130+110
FanDuel-2.5 -11065.5 -105-134+112
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10665 -108-135+115
MyBookie.ag-2 -11065.5 -110-129+105
Pinnacle-2.5 -10765 -115-129+114

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA +2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
UTSA to win · +115 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Over 65.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Across the books: opened +1.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward Texas State).

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.5+249
FPI+2.0+123
Sagarin+1.5+119
Massey-1.5-119
Market (11 books)-2.5-129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points65.071.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners +2.5-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML+115+118-0.7%
TotalOver 65.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 16:49; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at Washington
CFB 2:30pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.4 · getting 1.1 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 28.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 28TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Washington by 25.5
FPI
Washington by 22
Sagarin
Washington by 34.5
Massey
Washington by 4
Nasty Number
Washington by 271.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 27opened Washington by 23.5now Washington by 28SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Washington by 23.5 to Washington by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
49.75.8 pts under the market
Massey
53.81.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.83.7 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 4.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 51now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 4.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLUtah State ML
TOM-28 -11555.5 -110
Pinnacle-28 -10855.5 -107+1815
All 12 books
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLUtah State ML
TOM-28 -11555.5 -110
BetMGM-28 -10855.5 -108+1900
BetOnline.ag-28 -11555.5 -110+1617
BetRivers-27 -11455.5 -113+1900
BetUS-28 -11555.5 -110
Bovada-28 -11055.5 -110+1300
DraftKings-28.5 -10255.5 -105+2000
Fanatics-28.5 -10555.5 -110+2000
FanDuel-27.5 -11555.5 -110+2000
LowVig.ag-28 -11155.5 -108+1617
MyBookie.ag-28 -11055.5 -110+1325
Pinnacle-28 -10855.5 -107+1815

Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah State +28.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +1857
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. That's 3.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -26.0, now -28.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Washington).

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 2730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.5-2370
FPI-22.0-1398
Sagarin-34.5
Massey-4.0-153
Market (11 books)-28.0-1823
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.551.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +28.0-105+135-8.7%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1857+2803priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-06 17:00; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at Troy
CFB 3:00pm
No bet
market says Troy by 23.5, our data says Troy by 20.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 23.5.

The spread

← more Alabama State than the bookmore Troy →
Market
Troy by 23.5TOM, -112
The Four
Sagarin
Troy by 13.5
Nasty Number
Troy by 20.52.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Troy by 20.5opened Troy by 22.5now Troy by 23.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Troy by 22.5 to Troy by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Troy spreadTotal (over)Troy MLAlabama State ML
TOM-23.5 -11251.5 -105
Pinnacle-23.5 -11351.5 -114-2287+966
All 11 books
Troy spreadTotal (over)Troy MLAlabama State ML
TOM-23.5 -11251.5 -105
BetMGM-23 -10851.5 -110-1600+1050
BetOnline.ag-23.5 -11251.5 -105
BetRivers-23 -11052.5 -108+1050
Bovada-23.5 -11552 -105-2200+1000
DraftKings-23.5 -11551.5 -115-2100+1100
Fanatics-23.5 -11551.5 -115-2200+1200
FanDuel-23.5 -10551.5 -110-2100+1000
LowVig.ag-23.5 -11251.5 -105
MyBookie.ag-24 -11051.5 -110-2273+890
Pinnacle-23.5 -11351.5 -114-2287+966

Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama State +23.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Alabama State to win · +1024
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -22.5, now -23.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Troy).

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTroy by 20.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Alabama State
FPIdoesn't rate Alabama State
Sagarin-13.5-456
Masseyrates Alabama State and Troy on different scales
Market (10 books)-23.5-1048
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama State Hornets +23.5-108+103-2.6%
MoneylineAlabama State Hornets ML+1024+1115priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Troy Trojans since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New Mexico
CFB 3:00pm
No bet
market says New Mexico by 41.5, our data says New Mexico by 38.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 41.5.

The spread

← more Mercyhurst than the bookmore New Mexico →
Market
New Mexico by 41.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
New Mexico by 32
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 38.52.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 38.5opened New Mexico by 41.5now New Mexico by 41.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-41.5 -11053.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢
Pinnacle-42 -11754.5 -110
All 11 books
New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-41.5 -11053.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢
BetMGM-42 -11054.5 -115
BetOnline.ag-41.5 -11053.5 -115
BetRivers-41.5 -11353.5 -115
Bovada-42 -11554.5 -110
DraftKings-42.5 -10554.5 -108
Fanatics-42 -10554.5 -110
FanDuel-42.5 -10454.5 -110
LowVig.ag-41.5 -11053.5 -115
Pinnacle-42 -11754.5 -110

Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mercyhurst +41.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 67 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -41.5, now -42.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward New Mexico).

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -41.5 here against -42.0 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 38.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Mercyhurst
FPIdoesn't rate Mercyhurst
Sagarin-32.0
Masseyrates Mercyhurst and New Mexico on different scales
Market (9 books)-41.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMercyhurst Lakers +41.5-110-205+14.8%

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New Mexico Lobos since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -41.5 here against -42.0 consensus; total 53.5 here against 54.3 consensus.

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at Wyoming
CFB 3:00pm
No bet
market says Wyoming by 23.5, our data says Wyoming by 19.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wyoming by 23.5.

The spread

← more Northern Colorado than the bookmore Wyoming →
Market
Wyoming by 23.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Wyoming by 14
Nasty Number
Wyoming by 19.53.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wyoming by 19.5opened Wyoming by 23.5now Wyoming by 23.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLNorthern Colorado ML
TOM-23.5 -10544 -115
Kalshi44.5 -107 50¢-1684 94¢+1242
Pinnacle-22.5 -11144.5 -103-2023+898
All 12 books
Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLNorthern Colorado ML
TOM-23.5 -10544 -115
Kalshi44.5 -107 50¢-1684 94¢+1242
BetMGM-22.5 -11044.5 -105-2000+1150
BetOnline.ag-23.5 -10544 -115
BetRivers-21.5 -11344.5 -113+1150
Bovada-22.5 -11044 -110-2000+950
DraftKings-23.5 -10844.5 -102-1800+1000
Fanatics-22.5 -11044 -110-1800+1050
FanDuel-21.5 -11543.5 -114-2800+1160
LowVig.ag-23.5 -10544 -115
MyBookie.ag-23.5 -11044.5 -110
Pinnacle-22.5 -11144.5 -103-2023+898

Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Colorado +23.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Northern Colorado to win · +1098
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 77°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -22.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Northern Colorado).

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.6 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWyoming by 19.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Northern Colorado
FPIdoesn't rate Northern Colorado
Sagarin-14.0-473
Masseyrates Northern Colorado and Wyoming on different scales
Market (10 books)-23.5-1017
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Colorado Bears +23.5-115-108-1.6%
MoneylineNorthern Colorado Bears ML+1098+984priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Northern Colorado Bears since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 4.5.

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.6 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMU
CFB 3:00pm
No bet
market says SMU by 32.5, our data says SMU by 31
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 32.5.

The spread

← more UC Davis than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 32.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
SMU by 27.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 311.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 31opened SMU by 30.5now SMU by 32.5Sat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from SMU by 30.5 to SMU by 32.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLUC Davis ML
TOM-32.5 -11058.5 -110
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-32.5 -10659 -113
All 11 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLUC Davis ML
TOM-32.5 -11058.5 -110
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-31.5 -11058.5 -120+2800
BetOnline.ag-32.5 -11058.5 -110
BetRivers-32 -11459.5 -113
Bovada-32.5 -10559 -115
DraftKings-32.5 -10858.5 -115+1500
Fanatics-32 -11059 -110+1800
FanDuel-31.5 -10659.5 -105+2800
LowVig.ag-32.5 -11058.5 -110
Pinnacle-32.5 -10659 -113

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UC Davis +32.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
UC Davis to win · +2196
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Across the books: opened -24.5, now -32.5 (the market moved 7.8 toward SMU).

Kalshi thin: UC Davis Aggies ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 3130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate UC Davis
FPIdoesn't rate UC Davis
Sagarin-27.5-3188
Masseyrates UC Davis and SMU on different scales
Market (9 books)-32.5-2136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUC Davis Aggies +32.5-110+134-9.7%
MoneylineUC Davis Aggies ML+2196+5611priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 7.8 toward SMU Mustangs since 09-08 16:04.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at Vanderbilt
CFB 3:15pm
Over 55
should be 55.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 54
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 20.5.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Vanderbilt →
Market
Vanderbilt by 20.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Vanderbilt by 22
FPI
Vanderbilt by 14.5
Sagarin
Vanderbilt by 25
Massey
Vanderbilt by 4
Nasty Number
Vanderbilt by 200.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vanderbilt by 20opened Vanderbilt by 20.5now Vanderbilt by 20.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
62.27.2 pts over the market
Massey
55.90.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.14.1 pts over the market
Over 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.1opened 53.8now 55SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1.2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Vanderbilt spreadTotal (over)Vanderbilt MLDelaware ML
TOM-20.5 -11555 -105
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢-1236 92¢+944
Pinnacle-21 -10554.5 -113-1431+886
All 13 books
Vanderbilt spreadTotal (over)Vanderbilt MLDelaware ML
TOM-20.5 -11555 -105
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢-1236 92¢+944
BetMGM-20.5 -11554.5 -115-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11555 -105-1400+836
BetRivers-21 -11454.5 -112-2500+950
BetUS-21 -11055 -110-1400+825
Bovada-21 -11055 -110-1600+800
DraftKings-21 -10854.5 -115-1350+800
Fanatics-21 -11054.5 -115-1400+850
FanDuel-20.5 -11854.5 -114-1800+920
LowVig.ag-21 -10355 -103-1400+836
MyBookie.ag-21 -11055 -110-1493+780
Pinnacle-21 -10554.5 -113-1431+886

Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +20.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Delaware to win · +843
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 32% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Vanderbilt).

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVanderbilt by 2021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.0-1348
FPI-14.5-507
Sagarin-25.0-2136
Massey-4.0-150
Market (11 books)-20.5-908
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +20.5-105+128-7.3%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+843+1035priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-105-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 09-06 11:33; total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at Florida
CFB 4:30pm
No bet
market says Florida by 51, our data says Florida by 50
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 51.

The spread

← more Campbell than the bookmore Florida →
Market
Florida by 51TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Florida by 45.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 501.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 50opened Florida by 51now Florida by 51Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLCampbell ML
TOM-51 -11066 -115
Kalshi66.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-51 -11966.5 -116
All 11 books
Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLCampbell ML
TOM-51 -11066 -115
Kalshi66.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-51 -10866.5 -105
BetOnline.ag-51 -11066 -115
BetRivers-51 -11066.5 -107
Bovada-51 -12067 -110
DraftKings-50.5 -11265.5 -118
Fanatics-50.5 -11066.5 -110
FanDuel-50.5 -11566.5 -110
LowVig.ag-51 -11066 -115
Pinnacle-51 -11966.5 -116

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Campbell +51.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 64 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -50.0, now -51.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Florida).

Kalshi thin: Under 66.5, only $326 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 66.0 here against 66.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 5021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Campbell
FPIdoesn't rate Campbell
Sagarin-45.5
Masseyrates Campbell and Florida on different scales
Market (9 books)-51.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points66.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCampbell Fighting Camels +51.0-110-175+11.3%

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Florida Gators since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: total 66.0 here against 66.4 consensus.

The line is -51.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio
CFB 5:00pm
No bet
market says Ohio by 2, our data says Ohio by 1.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Ohio →
Market
Ohio by 2TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Jacksonville State by 7
FPI
Ohio by 2.5
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 1
Massey
Ohio by 2.5
Nasty Number
Ohio by 1.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio by 1.5opened Ohio by 2.5now Ohio by 2SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ohio by 2.5 to Ohio by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.63.9 pts under the market
Massey
53.42.9 pts over the market
Weather
-1.077% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
491.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49opened 51.6now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.1 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLJacksonville State ML
TOM-2 -10550.5 -105-125+105
Pinnacle-2.5 +10250 -106-117+104
All 12 books
Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLJacksonville State ML
TOM-2 -10550.5 -105-125+105
BetMGM-2 -10850.5 -108-130+105
BetOnline.ag-2 -10550.5 -105-125+105
BetRivers-2 -11250.5 -109-130+105
BetUS-1.5 -11050.5 -105-125+105
Bovada-1.5 -10550 -110-120+100
DraftKings-2.5 -10550.5 -108-130+110
Fanatics-2 -11050 -110-125+105
FanDuel-2.5 -10550.5 -108-128+106
LowVig.ag-2 -10650.5 -103-125+105
MyBookie.ag-2 -11050 -110-127+104
Pinnacle-2.5 +10250 -106-117+104

Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jacksonville State +2.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Jacksonville State to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 78°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

BetUS still has Ohio -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Ohio by 2.5.

Full detail
We settle onOhio by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+216
FPI-2.5-127
Sagarin+1.0+111
Massey-2.5-128
Market (11 books)-2.0-120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.549.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks +2.0-115+103-4.2%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML+105+118-3.0%
TotalUnder 50.5-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red WolvesWest Georgia at Arkansas State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Arkansas State by 32.5, our data says Arkansas State by 27
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arkansas State by 32.5.

The spread

← more West Georgia than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 32.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Arkansas State by 14.5
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 275.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas State by 27opened Arkansas State by 32.5now Arkansas State by 32.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arkansas State spreadTotal (over)Arkansas State MLWest Georgia ML
TOM-32.5 -11056 -115
Pinnacle-31.5 -10856.5 -104
All 11 books
Arkansas State spreadTotal (over)Arkansas State MLWest Georgia ML
TOM-32.5 -11056 -115
BetMGM-33 -10856.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-32.5 -11056 -115
BetRivers-31.5 -11356.5 -114
Bovada-31.5 -11056 -110
DraftKings-31.5 -11256.5 -108+3000
Fanatics-32 -11056 -110+3000
FanDuel-31.5 -11556.5 -110
LowVig.ag-32.5 -11056 -115
MyBookie.ag56.5 -110
Pinnacle-31.5 -10856.5 -104

Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Georgia +32.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
West Georgia to win · +3000
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Arkansas State).

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.7 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 2730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate West Georgia
FPIdoesn't rate West Georgia
Sagarin-14.5-498
Masseyrates West Georgia and Arkansas State on different scales
Market (10 books)-32.5-3222
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Georgia Wolves +32.5-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineWest Georgia Wolves ML+3000+2937priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-10 10:21.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.7 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska
CFB 6:00pm
Under 50
should be 49 · getting 1 pt · was 52
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 30.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 30.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 27
FPI
Nebraska by 28.5
Sagarin
Nebraska by 32
Massey
Nebraska by 4
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 300.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 30opened Nebraska by 28.5now Nebraska by 30.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Nebraska by 28.5 to Nebraska by 30.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
44.15.9 pts under the market
Massey
46.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.14.9 pts under the market
Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.1opened 51.9now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1.9 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.9 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLBowling Green ML
TOM-30.5 -11050 -105
Kalshi50.5 +101 48¢+3021
Pinnacle-30 -10550 -106
All 13 books
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLBowling Green ML
TOM-30.5 -11050 -105
Kalshi50.5 +101 48¢+3021
BetMGM-30 -11049.5 -110+2500
BetOnline.ag-30.5 -11050 -105+1787
BetRivers-30.5 -11050.5 -114
BetUS-30.5 -11050 -110
Bovada-30 -11050 -110+1600
DraftKings-30.5 -11049.5 -112+2000
Fanatics-30.5 -11049.5 -110+2500
FanDuel-30.5 -11050.5 -108
LowVig.ag-30.5 -10650 -103+1787
MyBookie.ag-30.5 -11049.5 -110+1600
Pinnacle-30 -10550 -106

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green +30.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +2000
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 50.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. That's 4.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -29.0, now -30.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Nebraska).

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 3021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-27.0-2949
FPI-28.5-3564
Sagarin-32.0
Massey-4.0-151
Market (11 books)-30.5-2109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.045.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +30.5-110+152-12.6%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+2000+4653priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.0-115-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-07 09:34; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.2 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Cincinnati by 35.5, our data says Cincinnati by 31.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 35.5.

The spread

← more Western Carolina than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Cincinnati by 35.5TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Cincinnati by 26
Nasty Number
Cincinnati by 31.53.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cincinnati by 31.5opened Cincinnati by 36.5now Cincinnati by 35.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cincinnati by 36.5 to Cincinnati by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLWestern Carolina ML
TOM-35.5 -11560.5 -110
Kalshi60.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-36.5 -11060.5 -110
All 11 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLWestern Carolina ML
TOM-35.5 -11560.5 -110
Kalshi60.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-35 -11260.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-35.5 -11560.5 -110
BetRivers-37 -11261 -113
Bovada-36.5 -11060.5 -110
DraftKings-36.5 -11260.5 -108
Fanatics-36.5 -11060.5 -110+3000
FanDuel-35.5 -11061.5 -106+2400
LowVig.ag-35.5 -11560.5 -110
Pinnacle-36.5 -11060.5 -110

Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Carolina +35.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Western Carolina to win · +3000
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F, 33% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCincinnati by 31.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Western Carolina
FPIdoesn't rate Western Carolina
Sagarin-26.0-2565
Masseyrates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales
Market (9 books)-35.5-2740
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Carolina Catamounts +35.5-105+107-2.8%
MoneylineWestern Carolina Catamounts ML+3000+6334priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.3 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Southern Utah than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
Colorado State by 20.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Colorado State by 9
Nasty Number
Colorado State by 182.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colorado State by 18opened Colorado State by 20.5now Colorado State by 20.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLSouthern Utah ML
TOM-20.5 -11057.5 -112
Pinnacle-20.5 -10757 -113-1474+739
All 11 books
Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLSouthern Utah ML
TOM-20.5 -11057.5 -112
BetMGM-20 -11057.5 -110-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -112
BetRivers-20.5 -11356.5 -112+1000
Bovada-20.5 -11057 -115-1500+775
DraftKings-20.5 -10257.5 -105-1350+800
Fanatics-20.5 -11057.5 -110-1400+850
FanDuel-20.5 -11257.5 -110-1700+890
LowVig.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -112
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -110-1205+630
Pinnacle-20.5 -10757 -113-1474+739

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Utah +20.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Southern Utah to win · +824
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onColorado State by 1821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Southern Utah
FPIdoesn't rate Southern Utah
Sagarin-9.0-258
Masseyrates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales
Market (10 books)-20.5-821
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5-110+102-2.8%
MoneylineSouthern Utah Thunderbirds ML+824+793priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern Illinois
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Illinois State by 3, our data says Illinois State by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 3, the Nasty Number says Illinois State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois State than the bookmore Northern Illinois →
Market
Illinois State by 3TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Illinois State by 4
Nasty Number
Illinois State by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois State by 3opened Illinois State by 5.5now Illinois State by 3Sat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Illinois State by 5.5 to Illinois State by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Northern Illinois spreadTotal (over)Northern Illinois MLIllinois State ML
TOM+3 -11049 -105
Pinnacle+3 -10848 -109+131-157
All 11 books
Northern Illinois spreadTotal (over)Northern Illinois MLIllinois State ML
TOM+3 -11049 -105
BetMGM+3 -10848.5 -102+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11049 -105
BetRivers+3.5 -11547.5 -115+133-165
Bovada+3 -11048 -110+135-160
DraftKings+3 -10547.5 -115+142-170
Fanatics+3 -11048 -110+135-160
FanDuel+3.5 -11047.5 -115+140-170
LowVig.ag+3 -11049 -105
MyBookie.ag+134-172
Pinnacle+3 -10848 -109+131-157

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois State -3.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Illinois State to win · -165
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 54.
Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois State by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Illinois State
FPIdoesn't rate Illinois State
Sagarin+4.0+155
Masseyrates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales
Market (10 books)+3.0+144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois State Redbirds -3.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineIllinois State Redbirds ML-165-141-3.8%

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.1 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Missouri State by 16.5, our data says Missouri State by 15.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Missouri State by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri State by 15.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Lindenwood than the bookmore Missouri State →
Market
Missouri State by 16.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Missouri State by 10.5
Nasty Number
Missouri State by 15.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Missouri State by 15.5opened Missouri State by 16.5now Missouri State by 16.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLLindenwood ML
TOM-16.5 -10553.5 -105
Pinnacle-16.5 -11752.5 -111-899+533
All 10 books
Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLLindenwood ML
TOM-16.5 -10553.5 -105
BetMGM-16.5 -10852.5 -110-800+625
BetOnline.ag-16.5 -10553.5 -105
BetRivers-17 -11353.5 -112-1430+750
Bovada-17 +10052.5 -110-850+550
DraftKings-16.5 -11252.5 -115-850+575
Fanatics-16.5 -11552.5 -110-850+575
FanDuel-16.5 -11053.5 -110-1000+640
MyBookie.ag-17 -11053.5 -110-901+520
Pinnacle-16.5 -11752.5 -111-899+533

Marked: best for the Missouri State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lindenwood +16.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Lindenwood to win · +575
We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -16.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMissouri State by 15.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Lindenwood
FPIdoesn't rate Lindenwood
Sagarin-10.5-320
Masseyrates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales
Market (9 books)-16.5-595
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLindenwood Lions +16.5-115+106-5.0%
MoneylineLindenwood Lions ML+575+555priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Tulsa by 13, our data says Tulsa by 12.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 13, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Sam Houston →
Market
Tulsa by 13TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
Tulsa by 17
FPI
Tulsa by 11
Sagarin
Tulsa by 11.5
Massey
Sam Houston by 1.5
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 12.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 12.5opened Tulsa by 14now Tulsa by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
553.5 pts over the market
Massey
51.4on the market
Nasty Number
53.21.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 52.1now 51.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.6 points since it opened, from 52.1 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sam Houston spreadTotal (over)Sam Houston MLTulsa ML
TOM+13 -11351.5 -110+370-500
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢51.5 -103 49¢+426 18¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12 -10451 -109+394-508
All 13 books
Sam Houston spreadTotal (over)Sam Houston MLTulsa ML
TOM+13 -11351.5 -110+370-500
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢51.5 -103 49¢+426 18¢-490 82¢
BetMGM+12 -10851.5 -102+380-500
BetOnline.ag+13 -11351.5 -110+383-500
BetRivers+13.5 -11351.5 -109+460-715
BetUS+12.5 -11051 -110+390-500
Bovada+12.5 -11051 -110+375-525
DraftKings+12.5 -11251.5 -112+380-500
Fanatics+12.5 -11051.5 -110+390-525
FanDuel+11.5 -11051.5 -108+365-490
LowVig.ag+13 -10951.5 -108+383-500
MyBookie.ag+13 -11051 -110+390-549
Pinnacle+12 -10451 -109+394-508

Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +13.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Sam Houston to win · +370 at TOM
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 20% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston).

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +12.3 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 12.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.0+691
FPI+11.0+331
Sagarin+11.5+358
Massey-1.5-116
Market (11 books)+13.0+387
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +13.0-113-101-2.9%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+370+387priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 18:05; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +12.3 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says South Carolina by 44, our data says South Carolina by 43.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 44.

The spread

← more Towson than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 44TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
South Carolina by 42
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 43.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 43.5opened South Carolina by 44now South Carolina by 44Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLTowson ML
TOM-44 -11057.5 -115
Kalshi56.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-44 -11557 -107
All 11 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLTowson ML
TOM-44 -11057.5 -115
Kalshi56.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-44 -10856.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-44 -11057.5 -115
BetRivers-44 -11057 -110
Bovada-44 -11557 -105
DraftKings-43.5 -11257.5 -108
Fanatics-44 -11056.5 -110
FanDuel-43.5 -11557.5 -110
LowVig.ag-44 -11057.5 -115
Pinnacle-44 -11557 -107

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Towson +44.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -43.0, now -44.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward South Carolina).

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 43.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Towson
FPIdoesn't rate Towson
Sagarin-42.0
Masseyrates Towson and South Carolina on different scales
Market (9 books)-44.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTowson Tigers +44.0-110-168+10.2%

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at Wisconsin
CFB 6:15pm
No bet
market says Wisconsin by 42, our data says Wisconsin by 43.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 42.

The spread

← more Western Illinois than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 42TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 47.5
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 43.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 43.5opened Wisconsin by 41.5now Wisconsin by 42Sat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Wisconsin by 41.5 to Wisconsin by 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLWestern Illinois ML
TOM-42 -11552 -105
Kalshi51.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-43 -10452 -106
All 11 books
Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLWestern Illinois ML
TOM-42 -11552 -105
Kalshi51.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-42.5 -11051.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-42 -11552 -105
BetRivers-42.5 -11252 -114
Bovada-43 -10551.5 -115
DraftKings-42.5 -10551.5 -110
Fanatics-42 -11551.5 -115
FanDuel-42.5 -10251.5 -115
LowVig.ag-42 -11552 -105
Pinnacle-43 -10452 -106

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wisconsin -42.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -37.0, now -42.5 (the market moved 5.7 toward Wisconsin).

TOM: spread -42.0 here against -42.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 43.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Western Illinois
FPIdoesn't rate Western Illinois
Sagarin-47.5
Masseyrates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales
Market (9 books)-42.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWisconsin Badgers -42.0-115+141-11.9%

Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 2.4.

TOM: spread -42.0 here against -42.7 consensus.

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson
CFB 6:30pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Clemson by 20TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Clemson by 13
FPI
Clemson by 16.5
Sagarin
Clemson by 25.5
Massey
Clemson by 3
Nasty Number
Clemson by 18.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Clemson by 18.5opened Clemson by 21now Clemson by 20SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
51.54 pts under the market
Massey
54.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.92.6 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 56.5now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-20 -11055.5 -105
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-967 90¢+841 10¢
Pinnacle-20.5 +10255 -109-1319+834
All 13 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-20 -11055.5 -105
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-967 90¢+841 10¢
BetMGM-19.5 -11055.5 -102-1200+825
BetOnline.ag-20 -11055.5 -105-1350+817
BetRivers-20.5 -11355.5 -110-2500+950
BetUS-20 -11055 -110-1400+825
Bovada-19.5 -11555 -110-1400+750
DraftKings-19.5 -11555.5 -102-1200+750
Fanatics-20 -11055 -110-1300+800
FanDuel-19.5 -11054.5 -115-1400+800
LowVig.ag-20 -10655.5 -103-1350+817
MyBookie.ag-20 -11055 -110-1442+752
Pinnacle-20.5 +10255 -109-1319+834

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +20.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +817
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 40% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -21.0, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 18.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.0-430
FPI-16.5-652
Sagarin-25.5-2367
Massey-3.0-140
Market (11 books)-20.0-857
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.552.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +20.0-110+111-4.9%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+817+838priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-115-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 17:54; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina
CFB 6:30pm
No bet
market says Coastal Carolina by 35, our data says Coastal Carolina by 30.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 35.

The spread

← more Fordham than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Coastal Carolina by 35TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 19
Nasty Number
Coastal Carolina by 30.54.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Coastal Carolina by 30.5opened Coastal Carolina by 35now Coastal Carolina by 35Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLFordham ML
TOM-35 -11554 -110
Kalshi53.5 -107 50¢+3021
Pinnacle-35.5 -11253.5 -111
All 11 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLFordham ML
TOM-35 -11554 -110
Kalshi53.5 -107 50¢+3021
BetMGM-34.5 -11053.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-35 -11554 -110
BetRivers-34.5 -11754 -109
Bovada-35.5 -11053.5 -110
DraftKings-35.5 -11253.5 -110
Fanatics-35.5 -11053.5 -110+3000
FanDuel-35.5 -10653.5 -110+3000
LowVig.ag-35 -11554 -110
Pinnacle-35.5 -11253.5 -111

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fordham +35.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Fordham to win · +3112
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -32.0, now -35.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Coastal Carolina).

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.3 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCoastal Carolina by 30.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Fordham
FPIdoesn't rate Fordham
Sagarin-19.0-928
Masseyrates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales
Market (9 books)-35.0-3450
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFordham Rams +35.0-105-100-1.2%
MoneylineFordham Rams ML+3112+4937priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-08 16:04.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.3 consensus; total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU
CFB 6:30pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.3 · getting 1.2 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 35.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 35TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
LSU by 29.5
FPI
LSU by 32.5
Sagarin
LSU by 34
Massey
LSU by 3.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 340.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 34opened LSU by 35now LSU by 35MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
47.28.3 pts under the market
Massey
52.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.75.8 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.7opened 55.5now 55.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-35 -11055.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-35 -10956 -106
All 13 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-35 -11055.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-35.5 -11055.5 -115
BetOnline.ag-35 -11055.5 -110
BetRivers-35.5 -10955.5 -112
BetUS-35 -11055.5 -110
Bovada-35 -11056 -110
DraftKings-35.5 -10255.5 -112
Fanatics-35 -11056 -110
FanDuel-35.5 +10055.5 -114
LowVig.ag-35 -10655.5 -108
MyBookie.ag-35 -11055.5 -110
Pinnacle-35 -10956 -106

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech +35.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +4121
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. That's 5.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward LSU).

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 3421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-29.5-4206
FPI-32.5
Sagarin-34.0
Massey-3.5-148
Market (11 books)-35.0-4208
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.549.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0-110+146-11.7%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+4121+9597priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas
CFB 6:30pm
No bet
market says Texas by 1, our data says Texas by 1
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1, the Nasty Number says Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Texas →
Market
Texas by 1TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 2.5
FPI
Texas by 2.5
Sagarin
Ohio State by 1
Massey
Texas by 2
Nasty Number
Texas by 10.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 1opened Texas by 1.5now Texas by 1MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 1.5 to Texas by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.72.2 pts over the market
Massey
49.80.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 48.5now 49.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLOhio State ML
TOM-1 -11549.5 -110-127+107
Pinnacle-1.5 -10850 -106-120+107
All 12 books
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLOhio State ML
TOM-1 -11549.5 -110-127+107
BetMGM-1.5 -11049.5 -110-125+105
BetOnline.ag-1 -11549.5 -110-127+107
BetRivers-1 -11549.5 -113-124+100
BetUS-1 -11550 -110-125+105
Bovada-2 -11050 -110-125+105
DraftKings-1.5 -11249.5 -112-122+102
Fanatics-2 -11050 -110-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 -11049.5 -112-120+102
LowVig.ag-1 -11149.5 -108-127+107
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11050 -110-126+103
Pinnacle-1.5 -10850 -106-120+107

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio State +1.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ohio State to win · +107 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+129
FPI-2.5-130
Sagarin+1.0+109
Massey-2.0-120
Market (11 books)-1.0-122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.550.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes +1.0-105+104-2.2%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML+107+109-0.5%
TotalOver 49.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State
CFB 6:30pm
Under 53
should be 51.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Oregon State →
Market
Texas Tech by 26TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 23.5
FPI
Texas Tech by 23.5
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 27.5
Massey
Oregon State by 1
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 250.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 25opened Texas Tech by 26.5now Texas Tech by 26MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 26.5 to Texas Tech by 26. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
47.75.3 pts under the market
Massey
51.11.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.43.6 pts under the market
Under 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.4opened 52now 53MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Oregon State spreadTotal (over)Oregon State MLTexas Tech ML
TOM+26 -11053 -110
Pinnacle+26 -11053.5 -105+1440-2842
All 12 books
Oregon State spreadTotal (over)Oregon State MLTexas Tech ML
TOM+26 -11053 -110
BetMGM+25.5 -11053.5 -108+1550-3000
BetOnline.ag+26 -11053 -110+1256-3000
BetRivers+26.5 -11453.5 -110+1700
BetUS+25.5 -11053 -110+1300-3000
Bovada+25.5 -11053.5 -105+1100
DraftKings+25.5 -11253.5 -105+1400-3200
Fanatics+25.5 -11053.5 -110+1500-3000
FanDuel+26.5 -12053.5 -110+1400
LowVig.ag+26 -10653 -108+1256-3000
MyBookie.ag+26 -11053 -110+1075-3030
Pinnacle+26 -11053.5 -105+1440-2842

Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon State +26.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oregon State to win · +1400
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +26.5, now +26.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 2530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.5+1701
FPI+23.5+1669
Sagarin+27.5+3118
Massey-1.0-109
Market (11 books)+26.0+1442
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.049.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers +26.0-110+137-10.2%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML+1400+2206priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

The line is +26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn
CFB 6:45pm
Under 57
should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 53
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Auburn by 33TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Auburn by 24
FPI
Auburn by 16
Sagarin
Auburn by 33.5
Massey
Auburn by 4
Nasty Number
Auburn by 293.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Auburn by 29opened Auburn by 30.5now Auburn by 33SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM, Under -105
The Four
SP+ pace
47.89.2 pts under the market
Massey
47.59.5 pts under the market
Weather
-1.055% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
46.610.4 pts under the market
Under 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 10.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 4.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.6opened 52.4now 57SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 4.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-33 -10557 -115
Kalshi56.5 -116 52¢+3021
Pinnacle-33 -10456.5 -112
All 13 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-33 -10557 -115
Kalshi56.5 -116 52¢+3021
BetMGM-32.5 -11057.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-33 -10557 -115
BetRivers-33.5 -11356.5 -112
BetUS-33 -11057 -110
Bovada-33 -10557 -110
DraftKings-32.5 -11257.5 -105+3000
Fanatics-32.5 -11057 -110+3000
FanDuel-32.5 -11556.5 -115+2400
LowVig.ag-33 -10157 -114
MyBookie.ag-33 -11057 -110+1582
Pinnacle-33 -10456.5 -112

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +33.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +3000
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -30.0, now -33.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $438 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAuburn by 2930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1859
FPI-16.0-609
Sagarin-33.5
Massey-4.0-149
Market (11 books)-33.0-2589
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.046.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0-115+109-5.7%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+3000+4081priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-105-138shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 21:40; total has moved up 3.9.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss
CFB 6:45pm
No bet
market says Ole Miss by 45, our data says Ole Miss by 43.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 45.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
Ole Miss by 45TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Ole Miss by 41.5
FPI
Ole Miss by 35
Sagarin
Ole Miss by 49
Massey
Ole Miss by 5.5
Nasty Number
Ole Miss by 43.51.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ole Miss by 43.5opened Ole Miss by 47.5now Ole Miss by 45MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 47.5 to Ole Miss by 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
60.30.3 pts over the market
Massey
60.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.50.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.5opened 61.5now 60MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLCharlotte ML
TOM-45 -11260 -110
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-45.5 +10259.5 -110
All 11 books
Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLCharlotte ML
TOM-45 -11260 -110
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-45.5 -10860.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-45 -11260 -110
BetRivers-45 -11359.5 -109
BetUS-45 -11060 -110
Bovada-45.5 +10059.5 -110
DraftKings-45.5 -10559.5 -112
Fanatics-45 -11559.5 -110
FanDuel-45.5 -10459.5 -105
Pinnacle-45.5 +10259.5 -110

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +45.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 65 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Over 60.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -47.5, now -45.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Charlotte).

TOM: spread -45.0 here against -45.4 consensus.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOle Miss by 43.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-41.5
FPI-35.0
Sagarin-49.0
Massey-5.5-175
Market (9 books)-45.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.060.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +45.0-108-184+12.8%
TotalOver 60.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-09 01:03; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -45.0 here against -45.4 consensus; total 60.0 here against 59.6 consensus.

The line is -45.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor
CFB 7:00pm
No bet
market says Baylor by 37.5, our data says Baylor by 36.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 37.5.

The spread

← more Prairie View A&M than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 37.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Baylor by 33.5
Nasty Number
Baylor by 36.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 36.5opened Baylor by 37.5now Baylor by 37.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLPrairie View A&M ML
TOM-37.5 -10555.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-37.5 -11055.5 -110
All 11 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLPrairie View A&M ML
TOM-37.5 -10555.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-37 -11055.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-37.5 -10555.5 -110
BetRivers-37.5 -11455 -110
Bovada-37.5 -11055.5 -110
DraftKings-37.5 -10555.5 -110
Fanatics-37.5 -11055.5 -110
FanDuel-37.5 -11855.5 -115
LowVig.ag-37.5 -10555.5 -110
Pinnacle-37.5 -11055.5 -110

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Prairie View A&M +37.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Prairie View A&M to win · +7079
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Across the books: opened -38.0, now -37.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Prairie View A&M).

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 36.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Prairie View A&M
FPIdoesn't rate Prairie View A&M
Sagarin-33.5
Masseyrates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales
Market (9 books)-37.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPrairie View A&M Panthers +37.5-115+150-13.5%
MoneylinePrairie View A&M Panthers ML+7079priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Prairie View A&M Panthers since 09-08 16:04.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP
CFB 8:00pm
No bet
market says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 22
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.

The spread

← more Texas Southern than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
UTEP by 27TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
UTEP by 14
Nasty Number
UTEP by 225.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTEP by 22opened UTEP by 25.5now UTEP by 27Sat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTEP by 25.5 to UTEP by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLTexas Southern ML
TOM-27 -11552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-2580 96¢+1775
Pinnacle-26.5 -11653 -114+1272
All 11 books
UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLTexas Southern ML
TOM-27 -11552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-2580 96¢+1775
BetMGM-25.5 -11052.5 -110-3000+1700
BetOnline.ag-27 -11552.5 -110
BetRivers-26.5 -11352.5 -114
Bovada-27 -11053.5 -105+1200
DraftKings-27.5 -10852.5 -112+1700
Fanatics-27.5 -11053.5 -110-3000+1500
FanDuel-25.5 -11453.5 -110+2000
LowVig.ag-27 -11552.5 -110
Pinnacle-26.5 -11653 -114+1272

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Southern +27.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Texas Southern to win · +1700
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Texas Southern).

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.6 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUTEP by 2240% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Texas Southern
FPIdoesn't rate Texas Southern
Sagarin-14.0-480
Masseyrates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales
Market (9 books)-27.0-1449
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Southern Tigers +27.0-105-115+2.2%
MoneylineTexas Southern Tigers ML+1700+1324priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Texas Southern Tigers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.9 consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force
CFB 9:00pm
No bet
market says North Dakota State by 2, our data says North Dakota State by 1.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Air Force →
Market
North Dakota State by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 0.5
FPI
North Dakota State by 4
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 2.5
Massey
Air Force by 2
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 1.5opened North Dakota State by 3now North Dakota State by 2MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.51.5 pts over the market
Massey
49.51.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
47.70.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.7opened 47now 48MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+2 -11048 -105+108-128
Pinnacle+2.5 -11247.5 -111+106-120
All 12 books
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+2 -11048 -105+108-128
BetMGM+2 -11047.5 -105+105-130
BetOnline.ag+2 -11047.5 -115+108-128
BetRivers+2.5 -11347.5 -112+110-136
BetUS+2 -11047.5 -110+110-130
Bovada+2 -11547.5 -115+100-120
DraftKings+1.5 -10547.5 -112+105-125
Fanatics+2 -11047.5 -115+105-125
FanDuel+2.5 -12047.5 -110-102-118
LowVig.ag+2 -10647.5 -108+108-128
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11047.5 -110+103-125
Pinnacle+2.5 -11247.5 -111+106-120

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force +2.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Air Force to win · +108 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

DraftKings still has North Dakota State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at North Dakota State by 2.5.

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-108
FPI+4.0+150
Sagarin+2.5+130
Massey-2.0-121
Market (11 books)+2.0+113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +2.0-110+104-3.3%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+108+119-2.5%
TotalUnder 48.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 19:21.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State
CFB 9:30pm
Over 44.5
should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 46
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 17.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 13.5
FPI
Fresno State by 13.5
Sagarin
Fresno State by 13
Massey
Fresno State by 3
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 161.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 16opened Fresno State by 18.5now Fresno State by 17.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
44.3on the market
Massey
49.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
472.5 pts over the market
Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 45now 44.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLSacramento State ML
TOM-17.5 -11044.5 -110
Pinnacle-18.5 +10344.5 -107-979+666
All 12 books
Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLSacramento State ML
TOM-17.5 -11044.5 -110
BetMGM-17.5 -10844.5 -110-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+709
BetRivers-18 -10944.5 -108-1250+700
BetUS-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+700
Bovada-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1000+625
DraftKings-17.5 -11044.5 -112-900+600
Fanatics-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+700
FanDuel-17.5 -10544.5 -115-1250+740
LowVig.ag-17.5 -10644.5 -108-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-18 -11044.5 -110-1205+690
Pinnacle-18.5 +10344.5 -107-979+666

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +17.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +700
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 1630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-457
FPI-13.5-451
Sagarin-13.0-416
Massey-3.0-139
Market (11 books)-17.5-706
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +17.5-110+102-2.9%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+700+626priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 44.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada
CFB 9:30pm
No bet
market says Montana State by 4.5, our data says Montana State by 5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Montana State than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Montana State by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Montana State by 8
Nasty Number
Montana State by 5.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Montana State by 5.5opened Montana State by 3.5now Montana State by 4.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Montana State by 3.5 to Montana State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLMontana State ML
TOM+4.5 -11051.5 -105
Pinnacle+4 -10951.5 -110+154-187
All 11 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLMontana State ML
TOM+4.5 -11051.5 -105
BetMGM+3.5 -11051.5 -102+138-165
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11051.5 -110
BetRivers+3.5 -11050.5 -110+143-180
Bovada+4 -10551.5 -110+160-185
DraftKings+3.5 -10851.5 -115+142-170
Fanatics+4.5 -11052 -110+145-175
FanDuel+3.5 -11051.5 -112+150-182
LowVig.ag+4.5 -11051.5 -110
MyBookie.ag+4 -11051.5 -110+154-199
Pinnacle+4 -10951.5 -110+154-187

Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Montana State -4.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Montana State to win · -181
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.
Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMontana State by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Montana State
FPIdoesn't rate Montana State
Sagarin+8.0+233
Masseyrates Montana State and Nevada on different scales
Market (10 books)+4.5+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMontana State Bobcats -4.5-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineMontana State Bobcats ML-181-180-0.2%

Line move: total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.0 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC
CFB 10:00pm
No bet
market says USC by 31, our data says USC by 29.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore USC →
Market
USC by 31TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
USC by 25.5
FPI
USC by 26.5
Sagarin
USC by 29.5
Massey
USC by 4
Nasty Number
USC by 29.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 29.5opened USC by 31.5now USC by 31MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 31. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
65.15.6 pts over the market
Massey
57.12.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
61.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.1opened 60now 59.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 59.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLLouisiana ML
TOM-31 -10559.5 -105
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢+3021
Pinnacle-31 -10759.5 -105
All 13 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLLouisiana ML
TOM-31 -10559.5 -105
Kalshi59.5 -107 50¢+3021
BetMGM-31.5 -11059.5 -110+3000
BetOnline.ag-31 -10559.5 -105+1787
BetRivers-31 -11759 -112
BetUS-31 -11059.5 -110
Bovada-31 -11059.5 -105+1600
DraftKings-30.5 -11859.5 -105+1800
Fanatics-31 -11059.5 -105+2500
FanDuel-30.5 -11559.5 -105+3000
LowVig.ag-31 -10159.5 -103+1787
MyBookie.ag-31 -11059 -110+1559
Pinnacle-31 -10759.5 -105

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +31.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana to win · +1800
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 59.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -30.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward USC).

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 29.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.5-2334
FPI-26.5-2649
Sagarin-29.5-4325
Massey-4.0-149
Market (11 books)-31.0-2083
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.561.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0-115+138-11.4%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML+1800+4348priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 59.5-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 16:07; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'i
CFB 11:00pm
No bet
market says Hawai'i by 7, our data says Hawai'i by 7
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 7, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Hawai'i →
Market
Hawai'i by 7TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 10
FPI
Hawai'i by 8.5
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 8
Massey
Hawai'i by 2.5
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 7opened Hawai'i by 7now Hawai'i by 7FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.23.2 pts over the market
Massey
51.81.8 pts over the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
51.81.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 49.5now 50FriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLNew Mexico State ML
TOM-7 -11550 -115-310+235
Pinnacle-7.5 +10250 -112-314+261
All 12 books
Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLNew Mexico State ML
TOM-7 -11550 -115-310+235
BetMGM-7 -12050.5 -108-300+240
BetOnline.ag-7 -11550 -115-310+252
BetRivers-7 -11549.5 -114-295+220
BetUS-7 -11050 -110-310+255
Bovada-7.5 +10050 -115-310+255
DraftKings-7.5 -10550.5 -110-298+240
Fanatics-7.5 -10550.5 -110-310+250
FanDuel-7.5 -10249.5 -115-295+235
LowVig.ag-7 -11150 -114-310+252
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11050.5 -110-319+246
Pinnacle-7.5 +10250 -112-314+261

Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -7.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -310 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-10.0-302
FPI-8.5-245
Sagarin-8.0-237
Massey-2.5-128
Market (11 books)-7.0-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.051.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.0-115+108-5.3%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-310-217-7.2%
TotalOver 50.0-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus; moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West Virginia
CFB 12:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more UT Martin than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
West Virginia by 41TOM, -108
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened West Virginia by 42now West Virginia by 41FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLUT Martin ML
TOM-41 -10857 -115
Pinnacle-41.5 -10956.5 -113
All 9 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLUT Martin ML
TOM-41 -10857 -115
BetMGM-41.5 -11055.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-41 -10857 -115
BetRivers-41 -11455.5 -117
Bovada-41.5 -11056.5 -110
DraftKings-41.5 -10856.5 -110
Fanatics-41.5 -11056.5 -110
FanDuel-41.5 -11056.5 -110
Pinnacle-41.5 -10956.5 -113

Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -39.5, now -41.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward West Virginia).

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -41.4 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate UT Martin
FPIdoesn't rate UT Martin
Sagarindoesn't rate UT Martin
Masseyrates UT Martin and West Virginia on different scales
Market (8 books)-41.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.0

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-08 16:04.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -41.4 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan
CFB 5:30pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Monmouth than the bookmore Western Michigan →
Market
Western Michigan by 29TOM, -115
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Western Michigan by 27.5now Western Michigan by 29Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLMonmouth ML
TOM-29 -11553.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -103 49¢-3476 97¢+1775
Pinnacle-28.5 -10653 -118
All 11 books
Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLMonmouth ML
TOM-29 -11553.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -103 49¢-3476 97¢+1775
BetMGM-29 -10853.5 -112+2200
BetOnline.ag-29 -11553.5 -115
BetRivers-29.5 -11054.5 -108+1500
Bovada-28.5 -10553.5 -110
DraftKings-29.5 -11053.5 -112+1800
Fanatics-29.5 -11053.5 -110+2000
FanDuel-28.5 -11553.5 -110+2500
LowVig.ag-29 -11553.5 -115
Pinnacle-28.5 -10653 -118

Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -29.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward Western Michigan).

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -28.8 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Monmouth
FPIdoesn't rate Monmouth
Sagarindoesn't rate Monmouth
Masseyrates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales
Market (9 books)-29.0-2014
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Western Michigan Broncos since 09-08 16:04.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -28.8 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at Houston
CFB 6:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Southern than the bookmore Houston →
Market
Houston by 51.5TOM, -105
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Houston by 51.5now Houston by 51.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLSouthern ML
TOM-51.5 -10561.5 -110
Kalshi61.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-51.5 -11961.5 -109
All 11 books
Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLSouthern ML
TOM-51.5 -10561.5 -110
Kalshi61.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-52 -10561.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-51.5 -10561.5 -110
BetRivers-51 -11461 -113
Bovada-51.5 -12061.5 -110
DraftKings-51.5 -11561.5 -105
Fanatics-51.5 -11061.5 -110
FanDuel-51.5 -11061.5 -105
LowVig.ag-51.5 -10561.5 -110
Pinnacle-51.5 -11961.5 -109

Marked: best for the Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -51.0, now -51.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Houston).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Southern
FPIdoesn't rate Southern
Sagarindoesn't rate Southern
Masseyrates Southern and Houston on different scales
Market (9 books)-51.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.5

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Houston Cougars since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCU
CFB 7:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Grambling than the bookmore TCU →
Market
TCU by 44TOM, -115
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened TCU by 43.5now TCU by 44Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLGrambling ML
TOM-44 -11556 -115
Pinnacle-44.5 -11456.5 -105
All 10 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLGrambling ML
TOM-44 -11556 -115
BetMGM-44 -10855.5 -102
BetOnline.ag-44 -11556 -115
BetRivers-43.5 -11454.5 -114
Bovada-44.5 -11556 -110
DraftKings-44.5 -10556.5 -105
Fanatics-44.5 -11056 -110
FanDuel-44.5 -11055.5 -115
LowVig.ag-44 -11556 -115
Pinnacle-44.5 -11456.5 -105

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward TCU).

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Grambling
FPIdoesn't rate Grambling
Sagarindoesn't rate Grambling
Masseyrates Grambling and TCU on different scales
Market (9 books)-44.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.0

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José State
CFB 8:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Cal Poly than the bookmore San José State →
Market
San José State by 21.5TOM, -110
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened San José State by 20.5now San José State by 21.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLCal Poly ML
TOM-21.5 -11059 -105
Pinnacle-21 -11558 -111-1658+796
All 11 books
San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLCal Poly ML
TOM-21.5 -11059 -105
BetMGM-21.5 -10858.5 -108-1600+1050
BetOnline.ag-21.5 -11059 -105
BetRivers-21.5 -11358 -108+1400
Bovada-21 -11558 -110-1600+800
DraftKings-21.5 -10558.5 -108-1800+1000
Fanatics-21.5 -10558 -110-1800+1050
FanDuel-21.5 -11458.5 -105-2800+1160
LowVig.ag-21.5 -11059 -105
MyBookie.ag-21.5 -11058 -110
Pinnacle-21 -11558 -111-1658+796

Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward San José State). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Cal Poly
FPIdoesn't rate Cal Poly
Sagarindoesn't rate Cal Poly
Masseyrates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales
Market (10 books)-21.5-939
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.0

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-08 18:47; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Tomorrow

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.
GameThe call
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Titans PK
should be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Titans →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Titans by 33.1 pts our side
FPI
Titans by 33.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Titans by 4.54.4 pts our side
Massey
Titans by 22.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Titans by 10.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Titans by 1opened a pick'emnow a pick'emSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
44.66.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.66.1 pts over the market
Over 38.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.6opened 39.4now 38.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101
All 14 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
BetMGM-1.5 -10838.5 -110-120+100
BetOnline.agPK -11638.5 -110
BetRivers-1.5 -11038.5 -110-125+104
BetUSPK -12038.5 -110
Bovada-1 -11039 -110-115-105
Caesars-1.5 -10938.5 -112-120+102
DraftKings-1.5 -11038.5 -112-122+102
Fanatics-1 -11039 -110-115-105
FanDuel-1.5 -10838.5 -110-118+100
LowVig.agPK -11238.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-1 -11038.5 -110-123+101
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans PK · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · -119
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48.
Not Nasty
the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 6.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.

Full detail
We settle onTitans by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-146
FPI-3.0-145
Sagarin-4.5-171
Massey-2.0-129
Market (12 books)PK-107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.544.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans PK-116-112-0.9%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-119-112-1.6%
TotalOver 38.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
Under 46
should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 1TOM, -123
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 1
FPI
Packers by 1.5
Sagarin
Packers by 0.5
Massey
Vikings by 2
Nasty Number
Vikings by 0.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 0.5opened Vikings by 1now Vikings by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
41.64.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.64.4 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 46.2now 46SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12346 -115-130+110
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113
All 14 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12346 -115-130+110
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
BetMGM-1.5 -11046.5 -108-130+105
BetOnline.ag-1 -12346 -115-127+107
BetRivers-2 -10946 -113-129+106
BetUS-1 -12046 -115-125+105
Bovada-2 -11046 -110-130+110
Caesars-1.5 -10946.5 -107-124+105
DraftKings-1.5 -11246.5 -108-125+105
Fanatics-2 -11046.5 -110-130+110
FanDuel-1.5 -11046.5 -108-126+108
LowVig.ag-1 -11946 -113-127+107
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11046.5 -110-122+100
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers +1.0 · +103 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · +110 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 42. That's 4.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+1.5+117
Sagarin+0.5+106
Massey-2.0-128
Market (12 books)-1.0-124
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.041.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML+110+109+0.1%
SpreadGreen Bay Packers +1.0+103+103-0.1%
TotalUnder 46.0-105-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Under 47
should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Bears by 3TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 2
FPI
Bears by 2
Sagarin
Bears by 2
Massey
Panthers by 1.5
Nasty Number
Bears by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 2.5now Bears by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
43.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.23.8 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.2opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -10547 -110+140-170
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
Pinnacle+3 -10647.5 +100+146-166
All 14 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -10547 -110+140-170
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
BetMGM+3 -10247 -110+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11047 -110+145-165
BetRivers+3 -10747 -110+140-175
BetUS+3 -10547 -110+146-170
Bovada+3 -11047 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -10647.5 -107+142-170
DraftKings+3 -10247.5 -110+140-166
Fanatics+3 -10547 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3 -10547.5 -102+148-176
LowVig.ag+3 -10547 -107+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3 -11047 -110+141-174
Pinnacle+3 -10647.5 +100+146-166

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +140 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+125
FPI+2.0+127
Sagarin+2.0+129
Massey-1.5-123
Market (12 books)+3.0+146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+140+140+0.0%
SpreadCarolina Panthers +3.0-105-105-0.1%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Over 44.5
should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Bills by 1TOM, +100
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 1
FPI
Bills by 0.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Texans by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 0.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 0.5opened a pick'emnow Bills by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
46.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.92.4 pts over the market
Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.9opened 44.5now 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-116 52¢
Pinnacle+1 +10045 -101+106-119
All 14 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-116 52¢
BetMGM+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-120
BetOnline.ag+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
BetRivers+2 -11345 -110+104-125
BetUS+1 -10544.5 -110+105-125
Bovada+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -11244.5 -109+103-121
DraftKings+1.5 -11244.5 -110-102-118
Fanatics+1.5 -11544.5 -110+105-125
FanDuel+1.5 -11544.5 -110-104-112
LowVig.ag+1 +10144.5 -107+105-125
MyBookie.ag+1 -11044.5 -110-101-121
Pinnacle+1 +10045 -101+106-119

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans +1.0 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Texans to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+0.5+104
SagarinPK+100
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+1.0+110
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.546.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans +1.0+100+101-0.3%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML+105+107-0.6%
TotalOver 44.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Under 50
should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Lions →
Market
Lions by 7TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 9
FPI
Lions by 7.5
Sagarin
Lions by 7.5
Massey
Lions by 2.5
Nasty Number
Lions by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 7opened Lions by 7now Lions by 7SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
44.95.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.95.1 pts under the market
Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 49.9now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
Pinnacle-7 -10449.5 -116-321+266
All 14 books
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
BetMGM-7 -11049.5 -118-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -10850 -110-310+252
BetRivers-7 -11049.5 -113-345+265
BetUS-7 -11050 -110-310+255
Bovada-7 -11050 -105-330+265
Caesars-7 -10649.5 -117-320+250
DraftKings-7 -11049.5 -112-340+270
Fanatics-7 -11050 -110-330+260
FanDuel-6.5 -12249.5 -115-335+270
LowVig.ag-7 -10350 -107-310+252
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-7 -10449.5 -116-321+266

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -7.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -310 at TOM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 5.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-305
FPI-7.5-251
Sagarin-7.5-260
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-7.0-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.044.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -7.0-107+115-5.2%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-310-243-4.8%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
Under 47
should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 9.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 9
FPI
Chargers by 10.5
Sagarin
Chargers by 14
Massey
Chargers by 2
Nasty Number
Chargers by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 9.5opened Chargers by 10now Chargers by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
42.54.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.54.5 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-515+365
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -111-480+376
All 13 books
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-515+365
BetMGM-9.5 -11247.5 -108-500+400
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10547 -115-515+393
BetRivers-9 -11247 -113-480+350
BetUS-9.5 -10547.5 -110-515+400
Bovada-9 -11047 -115-500+360
Caesars-9.5 -10847.5 -108-530+400
DraftKings-9.5 -11547.5 -102-500+380
Fanatics-9 -11047.5 -105-500+370
FanDuel-9.5 -10547.5 -104-490+380
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10047 -113-515+393
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11047 -110-505+356
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -111-480+376

Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers -9.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chargers to win · -515 at TOM
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-307
FPI-10.5-366
Sagarin-14.0-618
Massey-2.0-131
Market (12 books)-9.5-493
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Chargers -9.5-105+109-3.5%
MoneylineLos Angeles Chargers ML-515-331priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-105-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 15:31.

TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Ravens by 3TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 2
FPI
Ravens by 2
Sagarin
Ravens by 3
Massey
Colts by 2
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 3opened Ravens by 3.5now Ravens by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 48now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10548 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11947.5 -117+151-172
All 14 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10548 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3.5 -11548 -108+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3 -10548 -105+145-165
BetRivers+3.5 -11448 -108+143-175
BetUS+3 +10048 -110+146-170
Bovada+3 +10048 -105+150-175
Caesars+3 -10247.5 -117+147-176
DraftKings+3.5 -11547.5 -115+145-175
Fanatics+3.5 -12048 -110+145-175
FanDuel+3.5 -12047.5 -114+148-176
LowVig.ag+3 +10048 -102+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048 -110+132-162
Pinnacle+3.5 -11947.5 -117+151-172

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 4 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+128
FPI+2.0+124
Sagarin+3.0+148
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.0-105-105-0.1%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+135+140-0.9%
TotalOver 48.0-105-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 4.5
FPI
Bengals by 3.5
Sagarin
Bengals by 4
Massey
Bengals by 2
Nasty Number
Bengals by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 3.5opened Bengals by 4now Bengals by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
Massey
48.52 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.52 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 50.5now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+165
Kalshi-3.550.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+159 37¢
Pinnacle-4 -10250 -111-200+174
All 14 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+165
Kalshi-3.550.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+159 37¢
BetMGM-3.5 -11050.5 -108-210+170
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+177
BetRivers-4 -10850.5 -110-210+170
BetUS-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+175
Bovada-3.5 -11550 -115-210+175
Caesars-3.5 -11150.5 -109-205+171
DraftKings-3.5 -11250.5 -108-205+170
Fanatics-4 -11050.5 -110-205+170
FanDuel-3.5 -11550.5 -112-205+172
LowVig.ag-3.5 -11050.5 -102-205+177
MyBookie.ag-4 -11050.5 -110-210+168
Pinnacle-4 -10250 -111-200+174

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -3.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · -205 at TOM
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $457 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-171
FPI-3.5-158
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-3.5-196
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.548.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals -3.5-115+111-6.1%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML-205-155-6.4%
TotalUnder 50.5-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 9.5TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
Jaguars by 9
FPI
Jaguars by 8.5
Sagarin
Jaguars by 9.5
Massey
Jaguars by 2.5
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jaguars by 9.5opened Jaguars by 8now Jaguars by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM
The Four
Massey
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.3opened 40.5now 40SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10440 -112-400+310
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9.5 +10040.5 -102-403+325
All 14 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10440 -112-400+310
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-9 -11040 -110-450+333
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10440 -112-400+316
BetRivers-8.5 -11040.5 -107-420+320
BetUS-9.5 -10540 -110-400+320
Bovada-9 -11040 -110-420+315
Caesars-9.5 -10439.5 -127-420+320
DraftKings-8.5 -11239.5 -118-455+350
Fanatics-9 -11040 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -11240.5 -102-460+360
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10140 -109-400+316
MyBookie.ag-9 -11040 -110-481+350
Pinnacle-9.5 +10040.5 -102-403+325

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 40.0 · -112 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-311
FPI-8.5-288
Sagarin-9.5-334
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-9.5-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.041.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.5-116-113-0.7%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+310+320priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.0-112-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
No bet
market says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Raiders by 3TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Raiders by 5
FPI
Raiders by 3.5
Sagarin
Raiders by 5.5
Massey
Raiders by 2
Nasty Number
Raiders by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Raiders by 3opened Raiders by 3.5now Raiders by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40.5TOM
The Four
Massey
410.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
410.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41opened 40.5now 40.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -110-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -107 50¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3 -10940.5 -103-164+144
All 14 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -110-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -107 50¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
BetMGM-3 -10840.5 -108-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3 -11340.5 -110-165+145
BetRivers-3 -11440.5 -107-159+130
BetUS-3 -11540 -110-165+142
Bovada-3 -11540 -110-165+140
Caesars-3 -11040.5 -106-170+140
DraftKings-3 -11240.5 -105-170+142
Fanatics-3 -11040.5 -105-170+140
FanDuel-3 -11239.5 -118-164+138
LowVig.ag-3 -10840.5 -107-165+145
MyBookie.ag-3 -12040 -110-171+139
Pinnacle-3 -10940.5 -103-164+144

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders -3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · -165 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.

Full detail
We settle onRaiders by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-179
FPI-3.5-152
Sagarin-5.5-202
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-3.0-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.541.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders -3.0-113-101-2.7%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML-165-148-2.6%
TotalOver 40.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
No bet
market says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Eagles by 5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 6
FPI
Eagles by 5.5
Sagarin
Eagles by 6.5
Massey
Eagles by 2.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5opened Eagles by 5now Eagles by 5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
Massey
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 44.4now 44SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5 -11544 -110-247+197
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +101 48¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10244.5 -101-237+203
All 14 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5 -11544 -110-247+197
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +101 48¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
BetMGM-5.5 -11044.5 -105-235+200
BetOnline.ag-5 -11544 -110-247+205
BetRivers-5.5 -11044.5 -106-250+205
BetUS-5.5 -11044 -110-245+205
Bovada-5 -11544 -110-240+200
Caesars-5.5 -11044 -113-245+200
DraftKings-6 -10844.5 -105-250+205
Fanatics-5.5 -10544 -110-245+200
FanDuel-5.5 -11044.5 -105-250+205
LowVig.ag-5 -11044 -107-247+205
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11044.5 -110-250+198
Pinnacle-5.5 -10244.5 -101-237+203

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles -5.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · -247 at TOM
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Laremy Tunsil (OT, Commanders) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -236 here against -214 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-207
FPI-5.5-194
Sagarin-6.5-218
Massey-2.5-135
Market (12 books)-5.0-236
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.044.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -5.0-115+107-5.2%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-247-189-5.8%
TotalOver 44.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus; moneyline -236 here against -214 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants
NFL tomorrow 7:20pm
No bet
market says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cowboys by 3TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Cowboys by 1.5
FPI
Cowboys by 1.5
Sagarin
Cowboys by 2
Massey
Giants by 2
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 2.5opened Cowboys by 3now Cowboys by 3SunTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 47.9now 48SunTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11348 -108+134-159
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -116+146-166
All 14 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11348 -108+134-159
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3 -11248 -110+135-160
BetOnline.ag+3 -11348 -108+139-159
BetRivers+3 -11547.5 -113+132-157
BetUS+3 -11548 -108+134-155
Bovada+3 -11048 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -11348 -110+134-159
DraftKings+3 -11548.5 -105+136-162
Fanatics+3 -11048 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3 -11248.5 -105+134-158
LowVig.ag+3 -10848 -105+139-159
MyBookie.ag+3 -12048 -110+133-164
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -116+146-166

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · +134 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+122
FPI+1.5+121
Sagarin+2.0+131
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+3.0+140
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +3.0-113-107-1.3%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+134+137-0.5%
TotalOver 48.0-108-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Held
QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out
Held, QB outBuck's case ›
Buck

Held. Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Steelers by 5.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 5
FPI
Steelers by 5
Sagarin
Steelers by 4
Massey
Steelers by 2
Nasty Number
Steelers by 50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 5opened Steelers by 3now Steelers by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Steelers by 3 to Steelers by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
43.12.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.12.1 pts over the market
Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 41.9now 41SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-5.5 -11541 -110-270+210
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢40.5 -116 52¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-6 -11141 -108-290+243
All 14 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-5.5 -11541 -110-270+210
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢40.5 -116 52¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
BetMGM-6 -10841 -110-275+225
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11541 -110-270+222
BetRivers-6 -11341 -109-265+210
BetUS-6 -11041 -110-270+225
Bovada-6.5 -10541 -110-290+240
Caesars-6 -10841 -113-265+215
DraftKings-6 -11041.5 -105-270+220
Fanatics-6 -11041 -110-280+225
FanDuel-5.5 -11840.5 -118-290+235
LowVig.ag-5.5 -11041 -107-270+222
MyBookie.ag-6 -11041 -110-275+218
Pinnacle-6 -11141 -108-290+243

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +5.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Held: a quarterback is out and the ratings don't know it.
Held, QB out
Falcons to win · +210 at TOM
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30.
Held, QB out
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 2.1 points over the market.
Held, QB out

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Steelers).

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-184
FPI-5.0-181
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-130
Market (12 books)-5.5-258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +5.5-105-112+1.7%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+210+189+2.4%
TotalOver 41.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.

QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs
NFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.5 · getting 1 pt
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 2.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 3.5
FPI
Chiefs by 3
Sagarin
Chiefs by 3
Massey
Chiefs by 2
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 2.5opened Chiefs by 2.5now Chiefs by 2.5WedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
39.24.3 pts under the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
38.55 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.5opened 43.5now 43.5WedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -112 51¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +101-137+122
All 14 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -112 51¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
BetMGM-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
BetRivers-2.5 -11843.5 -108-148+120
BetUS-2 -12043.5 -115-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11443.5 -112-141+120
DraftKings-2.5 -11543.5 -115-142+120
Fanatics-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11043.5 -112-134+114
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11243.5 -113-140+120
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11043.5 -110-143+117
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +101-137+122

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -2.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -140 at TOM
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 39. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-150
FPI-3.0-147
Sagarin-3.0-141
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-2.5-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.538.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -2.5-116-111-1.2%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-140-137-0.5%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 17

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills
NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm
No bet
market says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 3
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 3
FPI
Bills by 3.5
Sagarin
Bills by 4
Massey
Bills by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 3opened Bills by 3now Bills by 3ThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
Massey
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 51.5now 51.5ThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.551.5 -116 52¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -12051.5 -105
All 9 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.551.5 -116 52¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -12051.5 -105
BetRivers-3 -11252.5 -109-175+140
BetUS-3 -12051.5 -105
Caesars-3 -11751.5 -115-170+142
DraftKings-3 -11551.5 -115-162+136
Fanatics-3.5 +10051.5 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -11052.5 -110-196+164
LowVig.ag-3 -11651.5 -102

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -3.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -172
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110
Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 38% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -3.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-141
FPI-3.5-152
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-129
Market (8 books)-3.0-157
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -3.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-172-147-3.8%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 19

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 58.5
should be 57.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
LSU by 2.5
The Four
SP+
LSU by 8
FPI
LSU by 6.5
Sagarin
Ole Miss by 0.5
Massey
Ole Miss by 2.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 2.5opened LSU by 2.5now LSU by 2.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.66.9 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
544.5 pts under the market
Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54opened 58.5now 58.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
Kalshi+129 42¢
LSU -2.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
LSU to win · -135
We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52.
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.0+231
FPI+6.5+197
Sagarin-0.5-106
Massey-2.5-130
Market (1 books)+2.5+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.554.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLSU Tigers -2.5-110-110-0.1%
MoneylineLSU Tigers ML-135-132-0.6%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket.

Sunday September 6

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostOle Miss Rebels -7.0Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels38-41-1.00

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units
LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00
WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93
LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00
WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95
LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00
WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

9 picks voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Michigan State Spartans (spread), Michigan Wolverines (moneyline), Arkansas Razorbacks (spread), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (spread), Ohio State Buckeyes (moneyline), Minnesota Golden Gophers (moneyline), California Golden Bears (moneyline), Texas A&M Aggies (spread), San Diego State Aztecs (spread).

1 pick voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: Texas State Bobcats (spread).

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
A Little Nasty0-10.0%-1.0 usmall sample
Not Nasty7 gamesno call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Scoreboard

Loading scores...

How it's going

3-4Record
-1.2Units
-17.3%ROI
3Open

It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.18Sides: pts vs close, 19 bets, beat it 42%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

81 priced · 1 Nasty Pick · 19 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

2 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 13 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 2 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 83 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 16 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.

Since 11:13am

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 3.2West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red Wolvestoward Arkansas State Red Wolveswith the public
  • → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 12 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 276849 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.15 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi402.95
LowVig.ag1041.37
BetOnline.ag1081.34
DraftKings1301.25
Caesars1131.18
BetRivers1411.14
FanDuel1551.12
Fanatics1421.06
BetUS710.99
Bovada1080.98
BetMGM1070.96
TOM1050.96
MyBookie.ag770.94
Pinnacle1070.90

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 3 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated 3 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 4 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
  • nfelo updated 2 days ago
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Built 11:19 AM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 15913.