In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Buck's Take
Worth a look: 4 totals, 2 over and 2 under, 2 of them in blowout games where the total is mostly garbage time. These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.
Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. Nothing becomes a Nasty Pick until the record earns it: 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides (so far 0 and 0). Stale numbers are the exception; that rule is proven and switches on inside 48 hours.
Moved since the last run: Down: Oregon at Oklahoma State (Waiting, was Nasty Candidate).
Betting anyway? Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52 (the models say 44) and Louisiana Tech at LSU, Under 55.5 (the models say 49).
Tomorrow
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.SMU Mustangs at Florida State SeminolesCFB tomorrow 6:30 pmNo betmarket says SMU by 3, our data says SMU by 2.5Pass
Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +109 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +111 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +215 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +125 | +131 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wed Sep 9
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksNFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 3.5, our data says Seahawks by 3.5Pass
Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 44.5 -103 | -178 | +156 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Marcus Bryant (OT, Patriots) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -162 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -180 | -156 | -3.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Sep 10
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 leans showing so far.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles RamsNFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutralLean 49ers to winour data says 40 in 100 · +164 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 48 -111 | -197 | +171 |
Also out: Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Alex Johnson (CB, Rams) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -165 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +164 | +150 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesCFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -53.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fri Sep 11
6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 1 lean showing so far.Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesCFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pmLean Rutgers to winour data says 44 in 100 · +144 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean Rutgers, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +137 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -198 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +173 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.5 | -152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 | -115 | -127 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +144 | +125 | +3.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmLean Over 50.5should be 51.2 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -239 69¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 23% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +292 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +250 |
| Market (10 books) | +6.5 | +206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers -6.5 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | -235 | -209 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosCFB fri 11 sep, 9:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -30.0 | -2963 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -43.5 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -20.5 | -1112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sat Sep 12
48 games4 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 57.5should be 59 · getting 1.6 pts · was 56.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 59, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -105 | 57.5 -103 | -524 | +375 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Opened -11.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Utah).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -246 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -243 |
| Market (11 books) | -12.5 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 62.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +12.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +375 | +347 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 52should be 50.4 · getting 1.6 pts at TOMNasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Under 52: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 50.4, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -110 | 52 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -126 54¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -29 -108 | 52 -110 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.5 | -2684 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -2042 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | -8590 |
| Market (12 books) | -28.5 | -2092 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +28.5 | -110 | +141 | -10.9% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2400 | +3449 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 51should be 52.9 · getting 1.7 pts at TOM · was 50.5Nasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Over 51: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 52.9, 1.7 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 51 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -9 -109 | 51.5 -106 | -357 | +275 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 45% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -291 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +272 | +278 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 ptsNasty Candidate
Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 53.4, 2.1 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -6293 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6391 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -27247 |
| Market (11 books) | -33.0 | -3391 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0 | -110 | +156 | -13.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +3500 | +7481 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Under 56.5should be 55.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 56.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 56.5 -109 | -349 | +270 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward East Carolina).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -400 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -347 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate App State | |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -284 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -9.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -335 | -292 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Texas A&M -14should be Texas A&M -15.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was -14.5Lean Texas A&M, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 51.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -639 | +437 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -809 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -732 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -806 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -479 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -650 | -553 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Over 49should be 50.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -105 | 49.5 -107 | -176 | +148 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +150 | +138 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 17.5, our data says Kansas State by 17Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 51.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 51 -113 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -16.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -895 |
| Market (8 books) | -17.5 | -835 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +17.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +805 | +688 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.
TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.8 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Michigan +6.5should be Michigan +5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +4.5Lean Michigan, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -103 | 43 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -103 49¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -104 | 43 -112 | +193 | -236 |
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.7 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +7.0.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -118 |
| Market (12 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +6.5 | -103 | -120 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +200 | +171 | +3.6% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Under 57.5should be 56.5 · getting 1.1 pts · was 60.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +22.5 -110 | 57.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +22.5 -109 | 57.5 -111 | +948 | -1953 |
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Nasty Candidate, now Waiting.
Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +995 |
| Sagarin | +25.0 | +2060 |
| Market (12 books) | +22.5 | +1013 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5 | -110 | +129 | -8.7% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +998 | +1366 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 18, our data says Virginia Tech by 18Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 51 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -108 | 51 -110 | -1113 | +652 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 20% chance of rain.
Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -757 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -475 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1006 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.0 | -693 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +18.0 | -110 | +119 | -6.8% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +663 | +779 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Penn State by 23.5, our data says Penn State by 23.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23.5 -110 | 49.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +1044 | -2280 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1604 |
| FPI | +20.0 | +1049 |
| Sagarin | +29.5 | +4463 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.5 | +1155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +23.5 | -110 | +142 | -11.0% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1248 | +1680 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Purdue to winour data says 39 in 100 · +164 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -115 | 50 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -111 | 50 -110 | +166 | -200 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.
Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +143 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +4.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +164 | +157 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 40, our data says Georgia by 39Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -115 | 54 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -116 | 53.5 -120 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -35.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 4.3 toward Georgia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -36.0 | -13246 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6508 |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | -41331 |
| Market (10 books) | -40.0 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0 | -105 | -116 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +9950 | +22654 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 10, our data says Alabama by 10Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | +331 22¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -111 | 49 -110 | +315 | -422 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +302 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +10.0 | +292 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +337 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -10.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -420 | -297 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says BYU by 7.5, our data says BYU by 7.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -312 | +246 |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.
Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -226 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -240 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -256 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -7.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.0% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -300 | -227 | -5.6% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean California to winour data says 45 in 100 · +135 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean California, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 56 -111 | -161 | +137 |
Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.5. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +133 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.0 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +135 | +122 | +2.5% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.7.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 6, our data says Illinois by 6.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -109 | 53.5 -110 | -233 | +191 |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F.
Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0 | -110 | +100 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -230 | -196 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 18Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -950 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1469 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.0 | -657 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -1024 | -778 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.6.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Maryland -12.5should be Maryland -13.5 · getting 1 pt · was -13.5Lean Maryland, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -108 | 53.5 -109 | +373 | -521 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.
Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -11.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +529 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +295 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +649 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +403 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | -525 | -448 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 54.9 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -121 53¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -103 | -113 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 24% chance of rain.
Opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State).
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -146 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.5 | +105 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -103 | +105 | -2.0% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.1 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Under 54.5should be 53.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | -63883 |
| FPI | -41.5 | -38512 |
| Sagarin | -53.0 | -437421 |
| Market (5 books) | -44.5 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +44.5 | -110 | -161 | +9.3% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +9950 | +69302 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean UCF to winour data says 32 in 100 · +250 · a price bet, they lose more often than notLean UCF, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 57 -111 | -304 | +241 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -204 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -152 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UCF | |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +7.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +250 | +208 | +3.9% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says UTSA by 1, our data says UTSA by 0.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | 71.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas State Bobcats +1.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Texas State Bobcats ML | -108 | +106 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 64.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Over 56should be 57 · getting 1.2 pts · was 54.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | — | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -108 | 56 -110 | -430 | +320 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 40% chance of rain.
Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -211 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UL Monroe | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -346 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +330 | +313 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Washington by 26.5, our data says Washington by 26.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Washington).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2445 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -877 |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | -10809 |
| Market (8 books) | -26.5 | -1743 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +150 | -12.4% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1700 | +2609 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmLean Over 57should be 58.3 · getting 1.2 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 57 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -121 53¢ | 56.5 -126 54¢ | +166 36¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5 -118 | 57 -110 | +162 | -195 |
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 98°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +420 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +149 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +138 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +173 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 62.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +5.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +160 | +165 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmNo betmarket says Vanderbilt by 20.5, our data says Vanderbilt by 21.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 53.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -108 | 53.5 -113 | -1544 | +814 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 31% chance of rain.
Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2097 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -587 |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3727 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -864 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5 | -113 | -150 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | -1518 | -1259 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmLean Over 55.5should be 56.1 · getting 0.7 pts · was 52.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -107 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -9 +102 | 55.5 -109 | -333 | +259 |
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Boise State).
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -257 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.0 | -276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.0 | -113 | -120 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +260 | +228 | +2.7% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 7.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -381 78¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -102 | 49 -102 | -412 | +310 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -125 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Florida International | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -333 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -112 | -147 | +6.6% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +315 | +229 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -2 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -124 | +106 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +105 | +126 | -4.5% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 55should be 56.1 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13 -110 | 55 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 55 -111 | +407 | -583 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +270 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +274 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +269 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.0 | +435 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +415 | +382 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Marshall by 15, our data says Marshall by 14.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15 -105 | 57.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -609 85¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 +102 | 57.5 -108 | -706 | +470 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F.
Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Market (11 books) | -15.0 | -505 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 60.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0 | -115 | +107 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +500 | +514 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 52should be 52.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 52 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | +456 17¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 52 -109 | +415 | -599 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.5 | +757 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +217 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Sam Houston | |
| Market (12 books) | +14.0 | +453 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +14.0 | -115 | +105 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +445 | +456 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Tulane by 10.5, our data says Tulane by 11Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 50.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -102 | 50.5 -109 | -415 | +311 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -11.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward South Alabama).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -535 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -375 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -339 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave -10.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | -432 | -328 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmLean San Diego State +11should be San Diego State +9.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5Lean San Diego State, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 53 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -109 | 53 -109 | -480 | +350 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -209 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -17.0 | -698 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.0 | -372 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +350 | +274 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 55 · getting 0.5 pts · was 56.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -121 53¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -109 | -1534 | +811 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 33% chance of rain.
Opened -23.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Georgia Southern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2522 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1922 |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | -5310 |
| Market (11 books) | -21.0 | -872 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -21.0 | -110 | -152 | +7.9% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -1500 | -1381 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Over 59should be 59.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 57.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -110 | 59 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | — | +181 34¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 59 -110 | +179 | -217 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.0 | +172 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +245 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +158 |
| Market (11 books) | +6.0 | +192 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida Atlantic Owls +6.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida Atlantic Owls ML | +180 | +185 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Over 41should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42Lean Iowa, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 41 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 41 -109 | -642 | +438 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 21% chance of rain.
A play at -13.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -709 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -457 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -910 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -494 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -700 | -515 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1, our data says a pick'emWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +228 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.0 | -102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | -106 | +102 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 26.5, our data says Texas Tech by 26.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.0 | +2195 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2451 |
| Sagarin | +33.5 | +8590 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1442 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +152 | -12.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2659 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmLean Under 53should be 51.6 · getting 1.2 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29.5 -112 | 53 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -111 | 53 -107 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.5 | -10097 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -933 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -25812 |
| Market (11 books) | -29.5 | -1878 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers -29.5 | -112 | -178 | +11.2% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | -5000 | -5558 | priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
Priced once the new ratings land.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmLean Air Force +3.5should be Air Force +3.5 · was +6.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Air Force).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +138 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +139 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +3.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +140 | +142 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.1.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18.5, our data says Fresno State by 18Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1887 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -601 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -619 |
| Market (11 books) | -18.5 | -695 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 47.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +690 | +765 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 31, our data says USC by 30.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -126 54¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -108 | 60 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -30.5 | -5134 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3373 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Louisiana | |
| Market (11 books) | -31.0 | -2169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -110 | +151 | -12.5% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2500 | +5024 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -35.5 | -4883 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -16.0 | -580 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.
Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (10 books) | -10.0 | -322 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 gamesNothing worth betting yet.Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmHeldQB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured ReserveHeld, QB out
Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 -110 | -390 | +316 |
Opened -8.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jaguars).
Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -205 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +285 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Steelers by 3.5, our data says Steelers by 3.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 42.5 -105 | -181 | +158 |
QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 | -110 | +114 | -5.6% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -180 | -151 | -4.1% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Colts +3.5should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 47.5 -113 | +155 | -177 |
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +150 | +147 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 44should be 45.7 · getting 1.5 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 +105 47¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -114 | 44 -118 | -106 | -106 |
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | pk | +100 |
| Market (12 books) | +0.5 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +0.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -106 | +104 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 47.5should be 46.7 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +112 | 47.5 +101 | +143 | -162 |
Also out: Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +132 | +133 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Buccaneers to winour data says 39 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -200 65¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -108 | 51 -101 | -212 | +183 |
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +175 | +159 | +2.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 50should be 49.3 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 50.5 +101 | -320 | +266 |
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -214 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -275 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +7.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +260 | +236 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 39should be 41.8 · getting 2.7 ptsLean Titans, waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 39 -111 | -119 | +106 |
A play at -0.5 or better.
Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans -1.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -129 | -129 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -143 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 +101 48¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +106 | 47 -114 | -509 | +395 |
Also out: James Conner (RB, Cardinals), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -165 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -417 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +10.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +400 | +345 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 46should be 45.3 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -111 | 46 -107 | -120 | +107 |
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -169 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -121 | -117 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3.5, our data says Raiders by 3.5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 40.5 -110 | -180 | +157 |
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -121 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -180 | -154 | -3.7% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5Waiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -108 | 44.5 -101 | -228 | +196 |
Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -162 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 | -110 | +112 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -235 | -182 | -5.7% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmLean Over 48should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting
Pass. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +112 | 47.5 -121 | +142 | -161 |
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -112 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +135 | +131 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Saturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Scoreboard
Loading scores...
How Sunday 6 September went
Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.
| What we said | Right-wrong | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Leaned, no bet | 1-0 | 100% |
| Ruled out by the guardrails | 1-0 | 100% |
Game by game
How it's going
It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 69 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 71 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 1 was worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.
Since 10:04 pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 2 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 36685 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.34 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 68 | 0.64 |
| BetOnline.ag | 68 | 0.56 |
| LowVig.ag | 65 | 0.51 |
| FanDuel | 63 | 0.48 |
| BetMGM | 65 | 0.45 |
| TOM | 52 | 0.38 |
| BetRivers | 66 | 0.36 |
| MyBookie.ag | 58 | 0.34 |
| BetUS | 64 | 0.23 |
| Bovada | 62 | 0.20 |
| Pinnacle | 61 | 0.19 |
| Caesars | 67 | 0.19 |
| Fanatics | 71 | 0.15 |
| Kalshi | 33 | 0.00 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated today
- nfelo updated today