Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Buck's Take
Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Texas A&M +9.5 (Texas A&M at LSU) at 7.7% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Army at Temple, Over 48, down 2 since the open.
If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Texas A&M at LSU, Texas A&M +9.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
No sneakies today. The market has this slate.
Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 26 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +9.5, UConn +5, Nevada +4.5. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
7.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM or TOM +9.5 at -105 (7.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +9.5 at -107 (7.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (6.9%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -110 (6.5%) · Fanatics +9 at -110 (6.2%).5.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UConn): BetMGM +5 at -110 (5.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars +4.5 at -108 (4.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +4.5 at -110 (4.2%) · TOM +5 at -115 (4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (4.0%).4.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Nevada): Caesars +4.5 at -109 (4.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (3.8%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -112 (3.3%) · TOM +4 at -110 (2.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.3.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Cincinnati): FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.7%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -105 (2.5%) · Caesars +6.5 at -108 (1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM +6.5 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (0.9%).3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Clemson): BetMGM +1 at -108 (4.0%) · Fanatics +1 at -110 (3.5%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or TOM +1.5 at -115 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (3.2%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +1.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1 (the games that land on 1); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.3.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Washington State): FanDuel or Caesars +12.5 at -110 (3.9%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (3.8%) · Fanatics +12 at -110 (3.3%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -115 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.2.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Oklahoma): Fanatics +14 at -105 (2.6%) · BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +14 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.3%) · DraftKings +14 at -112 (1.0%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 55¢ (-1.0%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); 55¢ costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (7.2%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 53¢ (6.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 50.5 at -110 (6.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 49.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 50.5 (the games that land on 50); 53¢ costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.18 more, weaker reads
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -105 (6.5%) · Caesars 48.5 at -110 (4.0%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 52¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (2.4%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (5.5%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (4.5%) · Fanatics or Caesars 52 at -110 (4.3%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (4.1%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (3.6%).Points or price: 51.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 52 (the games that land on 52); -118 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 55 at -110 (4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (2.9%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (1.8%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (1.1%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.6%).3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): Fanatics +9 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +8.5 at -108 (3.5%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars +8.5 at -110 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (3.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 56 at -110 (3.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -115 (3.4%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -108 (2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 46.5 at -110 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-0.3%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -102 (-0.6%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-1.1%).2.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Ball State): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (2.1%) · TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.4%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 57 at -115 (2.1%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 54¢ (1.0%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -105 (0.5%) · Caesars 58.5 at -107 (-0.0%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -108 (-0.2%).Points or price: 56.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 57 (the games that land on 57); 54¢ costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -115. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (3.1%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -108 (2.2%) · TOM 46 at -115 (2.0%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -112 (1.3%).Points or price: 46 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 45.5 (the games that land on 46); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in). The price wins.1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.8%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +3 at -105 (0.7%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (-1.4%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (4.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -108 (2.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 59.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.2%).1.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Colorado State): Fanatics or BetMGM +13 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (1.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (1.6%) · TOM +12.5 at -110 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +13.5 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than +13 (the games that land on 13); -115 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins by a hair.1.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Akron): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.2%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (0.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +13.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-0.6%) · TOM +13 at -110 (-0.6%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 60.5 at -105 (2.1%) · Kalshi 60.5 at 50¢ (1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 60.5 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.7%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -112 (0.4%).0.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): Kalshi -3.5 at 50¢ (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.6%) · Caesars -4.5 at -109 (-2.1%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM -4.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (4.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars 58.5 at -112 (4.0%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (3.3%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -115 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -112 (1.2%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -115 (0.5%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 48.5 at -117 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (0.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 48.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.3%).Moved closer since the 6:04pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 6:04pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Utah at Iowa State Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Utah -7.0: 0.5 points away, was 3.0.The line went from -10.0 to -7.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Northern Illinois at Georgia State Sat 26 Sep, 1:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Northern Illinois +11.0: 1.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -9.5 to +10.0; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - South Carolina at Alabama Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at South Carolina +14.0: 1.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -12.5 to +13.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Texas at Tennessee Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Texas -3.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -4.5 to -3.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Liberty at Coastal Carolina Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Coastal Carolina +3.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The price from -105 to +100. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Wisconsin at Penn State Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Penn State -9.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Massachusetts at Sacramento State Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Massachusetts -4.5: 2.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -5.5 to -6.5; the price from -110 to +104. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Rice at Fresno State Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Fresno State -12.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 5 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmRams -6.5should be Rams -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +266 |
All 25 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 47 -114 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -7 -102 | 47.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +256 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 47 -114 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -117 | 47 -114 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -660 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -385 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -315 | +256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +266 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -113 | 47.5 | -285 | +270 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +246 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $402 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (21 books) | -6.5 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | -117 | +105 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -285 | -238 | -3.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pmCoastal Carolina +2.5should be Coastal Carolina +1.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Coastal Carolina's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -112 | 52 -113 | +110 | -134 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -112 | 52 -113 | +110 | -134 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 52 -113 | +108 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -112 | 52 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -238 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +115 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | +109 | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 51.5 -119 | +104 | -138 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 75°F, 38% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 3.6 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (16 books) | +2.5 | +121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Liberty Flames since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pmPackers -7no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7 -104 | 45 -109 | -335 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7 -104 | 45 -109 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -104 | 45 -109 | -335 | +260 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 44 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -7 -109 | 44.5 -113 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | -7 -108 | 44.5 -108 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 45 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 44.5 -120 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 45.5 -110 | -350 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -105 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -340 | +246 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -117 | 44.5 +100 | -300 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -319 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons ML, only $301 available; Atlanta Falcons +6.5, only $26 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ethan Onianwa (OT, Falcons).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers's last game | |
| Market (15 books) | -7.0 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.6.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Fri Sep 25
4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at CaliforniaClemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson +1.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be Clemson -2 · getting 3.5 pts at FanDuel · was -1.5Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says California by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 3 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 3 points more in Clemson's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -112 | 49.5 -108 | -118 | -104 |
| BetAnything | PK -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -1 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -112 | 49.5 -108 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -113 | 49.5 -109 | -120 | -105 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 50 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -595 | -108 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 50.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 50 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -114 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | 49.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -106 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -113 | -108 |
| ReBet | -0.5 -116 | 49.5 -114 | -118 | -112 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson +1.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -0.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -0.7 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +173 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (16 books) | -1.5 | -104 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +1.5 | -115 | -132 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward California Golden Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -0.7 consensus; total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmOver 48Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 51 · getting 3 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Temple too: market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2, but at -108 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +128 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -352 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 49.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -106 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +131 | -161 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 49.5 -114 | +126 | -168 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 31% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +3.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -105 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +179 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.0 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +130 | +123 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.0 | -108 | -114 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.5 consensus.
Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UABCFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pmOver 52Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 54.6 · getting 2.6 pts · was 54.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 8. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Navy by 10.5 to Navy by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -117 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | +280 25¢ | -306 74¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -118 | 52 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -117 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | +280 25¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -108 | 52 -113 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +8 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -118 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +8 -108 | 52 -113 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8 -109 | 52 -114 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +8.5 -113 | 52 -110 | +280 | -345 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -533 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 51.5 -118 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +260 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -114 | 52 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -350 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | +250 | -370 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +8.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UAB's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +159 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +244 |
| Market (16 books) | +7.5 | +315 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 60.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -7.5 | -103 | +119 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -306 | -225 | -6.1% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -105 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +8.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNorthwestern +21should be Northwestern +20 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 22.5 to Indiana by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1300 |
| BetAnything | -21.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -22 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -21.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1300 |
| BetRivers | -21.5 -113 | 48.5 -113 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -21.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -21.5 -114 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -3164 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -21.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 7¢ +1011 all-in |
| Fanatics | -22 -110 | 50 -110 | -2500 | +1300 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -23.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -106 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2273 | +960 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -116 | 49.5 -114 | -2500 | +830 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -22.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Northwestern).
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -22.0 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | -17.5 | -668 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -762 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (16 books) | -21.0 | -2244 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +22.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1300 | +930 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -22.0 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTexas A&M +9.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Texas A&M +7.5 · getting 2 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 9.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 20 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -9.5 -107 | 52.5 -117 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1208 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 53 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | -345 | +270 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -365 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 52.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -400 | +275 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +9.5 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 3.7 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (17 books) | -9.5 | -326 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +9.5 | -105 | -143 | +7.7% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +275 | +211 | +5.5% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUConn +5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UConn +3 · getting 2 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UConn's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | -177 | +140 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -176 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -366 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -184 | +152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -104 | 51.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -182 | +147 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -114 | 51.5 -111 | -190 | +141 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.5. The market has moved 1.1 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -4.4 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -138 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -104 |
| Market (16 books) | -5.0 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +5.0 | -110 | -136 | +5.2% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +156 | +137 | +3.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -4.4 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmNevada +4.5should be Nevada +3 · getting 1.5 pts at Caesars · was +4.5Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3. At -109 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -131 55¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -131 55¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -113 | 49.5 -113 | +165 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -113 | 49.5 -113 | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +160 | -200 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -109 | 49.5 -105 | +167 | -200 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -281 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +162 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -106 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +174 | -218 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 49.5 -109 | +166 | -228 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -109 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack ML, only $74 available; Air Force Falcons ML, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (16 books) | +4.0 | +186 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +165 | +139 | +4.1% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 | -109 | -128 | +4.0% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmCincinnati +6.5should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +7Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +195 | -245 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +195 | -245 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -1330 | +205 | -239 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 53.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | +189 | -265 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +6.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +108 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +157 |
| Market (16 books) | +6.5 | +228 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +215 | +180 | +4.0% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | +100 | -116 | +3.7% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.7 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmWashington State +12should be Washington State +11 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +13Sniff of Nasty · Washington StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Washington State. Market says Arizona by 12, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 47.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Washington State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Washington State +12.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.0. The market has moved 1.0 toward Washington State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (16 books) | +12.0 | +479 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +12.0 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +390 | +307 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +12Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +105 47¢ | 42.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +105 47¢ | 42.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -120 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 43.5 -107 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 59.5 -4396 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 43.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -14.5 -105 | 43.5 -120 | -710 | +475 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 43.5 -114 | -699 | +410 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.1 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -252 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -248 |
| Market (17 books) | -14.0 | -595 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -105 | -117 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +475 | +391 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 3.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +3.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | -175 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -301 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -176 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 50.5 -114 | -194 | +144 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -173 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (16 books) | -3.5 | -160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +3.5 | -110 | -120 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +142 | +134 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 59.5should be 57.9 · getting 1.6 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 +162 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 59.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | -126 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 60.5 -111 | -129 | -103 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 3.9 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -184 |
| Market (15 books) | -1.5 | -110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -2.5 | +104 | -101 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -120 | -122 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amColorado State +12.5should be Colorado State +12 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +13Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
All 18 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -109 | 58.5 -109 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -109 | 58.5 -109 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -12.5 -112 | 59 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| Courtside | — | 37.5 +886 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 57 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 57.5 -119 | -575 | +350 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +12.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -13.1 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -322 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -306 |
| Market (16 books) | -12.5 | -467 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +12.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +385 | +341 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -13.1 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.8 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUCF +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UCF +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +2Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -113 | 49.5 -108 | +123 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | — | 49.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -113 | 49.5 -108 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 49.5 -113 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -407 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -125 | 49.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -111 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +132 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 49.5 -114 | +127 | -170 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 83°F, 34% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -142 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.5 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.5 | -115 | -124 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +134 | +130 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmOver 48.5should be 49.5 · getting 1 pt · was 52.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -1963 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +160 | -194 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -111 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +172 | -216 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 48.5 -116 | +165 | -224 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +221 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (15 books) | +5.5 | +182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +5.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +160 | +164 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.7 consensus.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmOver 57Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 59.2 · getting 2.2 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans UL Monroe too: market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5, but at -108 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -126 54¢ | — | -524 83¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -126 54¢ | — | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -113 | 58.5 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| BetUS | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -107 | +400 | -560 |
| Courtside | — | 78.5 -1226 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| Fanatics | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +390 | -525 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -111 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -109 | 58.5 -111 | +370 | -599 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $218 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +211 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (16 books) | +13.5 | +475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5 | -108 | -112 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +395 | +375 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -115 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 60.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 59.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 60.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Ole Miss too: market says Florida by 3, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2.5, but at -105 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 60.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 60.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | -143 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 60.5 -112 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | -143 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 60.5 -109 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -172 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 60.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 59.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 60.5 -110 | -142 | +118 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 59.5 -120 | -150 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 60.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -147 | +120 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 60.5 -116 | -153 | +115 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from Ole Miss, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -150 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +156 |
| Market (15 books) | -3.0 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -110 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +127 | +127 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 60.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.8 consensus.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amAkron +13.5should be Akron +13 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +14Sniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 13, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 13. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -113 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -113 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +460 | -715 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +13.5 -113 | 49.5 -109 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 48.5 -103 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +480 | -690 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -109 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 49 -110 | +440 | -625 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -109 | 49.5 -111 | +410 | -676 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +13.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Akron, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $231 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.5 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +276 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +123 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +406 |
| Market (16 books) | +13.0 | +595 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +13.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +475 | +381 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Akron Zips since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 5.1.
TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.5 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Georgia Tech -5.5 · getting 2 pts at Kalshi · was -5.5Sniff of Nasty · Georgia TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Georgia Tech by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. At -107 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Georgia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -117 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -2122 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 47.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +155 | -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +179 | -224 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 47.5 -116 | +171 | -236 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech -3.5 · -107 (50¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +223 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +201 |
| Market (16 books) | +4.5 | +189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 | -107 | -111 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -185 | -179 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -348 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -225 |
| Market (16 books) | -9.0 | -311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +265 | +235 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 55Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 52.3 · getting 2.7 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 53.5 -108 | -385 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 53.5 -108 | -385 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 53.5 -109 | -400 | +295 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 70.5 -1484 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 53.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | -350 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 53.5 -111 | -391 | +270 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $386 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -255 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -158 |
| Market (15 books) | -9.5 | -338 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +291 | +263 | +2.0% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -108 | -115 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -132 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amOver 56should be 58.2 · getting 2.2 pts · was 56.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 5 to Texas by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -109 | +170 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | — | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -109 | +170 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 56.5 -110 | +170 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 56.5 -106 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 55.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +155 | -192 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -120 | 55.5 -120 | +165 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -106 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 56.5 -110 | +163 | -202 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | +156 | -212 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 70°F.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.6 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +213 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.5 | +187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -3.5 | -105 | +100 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -191 | -160 | -4.1% |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.6 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 12:30pmUnder 57.5should be 55.8 · getting 1.7 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -109 | 58.5 -108 | +110 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2 -109 | 58.5 -108 | +110 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2 -110 | 58.5 -109 | +108 | -134 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 58.5 -109 | +112 | -132 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -780 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 58.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 58 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -111 | 57.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +107 | -130 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -119 | 58.5 -111 | +102 | -136 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $102 available; Under 57.5, only $479 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.2 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -115 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (16 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | -109 | -105 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +110 | +115 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 6.9.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.2 consensus; total 57.5 here against 58.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmUnder 46.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 44.5 · getting 2 pts · was 45.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Hawai'i by 4 to Hawai'i by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 45.5 -121 53¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -120 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 45.5 -121 53¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 45.5 -110 | +138 | -167 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 44.5 -118 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -120 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 45.5 -110 | +138 | -167 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 45.5 -112 | +135 | -167 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +3.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | +154 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 48.5 -158 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -112 | 45.5 -105 | +138 | -166 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 45 -110 | +159 | -197 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -111 | 45.5 -109 | +152 | -206 |
Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Wyoming).
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +3.5, only $10 available; Wyoming Cowboys ML, only $448 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| FPI | +9.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +127 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.0 | +168 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -166 | -150 | -2.4% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.6 consensus; total 46.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmUnder 46Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 43.8 · getting 2.2 pts · was 43.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 46 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 46 -105 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 46 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -107 | 45 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 46 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10 -107 | 45 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10 -108 | 45 -114 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -10 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 38.5 +212 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 44.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 46 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 45.5 -111 | -481 | +310 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin).
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -527 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (15 books) | -10.0 | -381 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0 | -105 | -104 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -375 | -339 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -115 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmOver 50.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 54.2 · getting 3.7 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 10, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 10. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | — | -430 80¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +12 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | — | -430 80¢ |
| Bally Bet | +12.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +420 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +12.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +420 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 -114 | 50.5 -114 | +410 | -590 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +11.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +425 | -590 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -979 | +439 | -553 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +425 | -575 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 49.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +12 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +12 -111 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| ReBet | +12.5 -111 | 50.5 -111 | +360 | -575 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Charlotte).
Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers ML, only $182 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +12.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +210 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +217 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +260 |
| Market (16 books) | +10.0 | +519 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -10.0 | -110 | +113 | -5.5% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -430 | -288 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -145 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +12.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmOver 49Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 50.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -140 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -207 |
| Market (16 books) | -2.5 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +2.5 | -104 | +102 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +115 | +123 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.5.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmMinnesota +8.5should be Minnesota +8 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Minnesota is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -113 | 45.5 -112 | -420 | +300 |
| BetUS | -9 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -2122 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 44.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -111 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 46 -110 | -391 | +290 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -114 | 45.5 -114 | -410 | +275 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +8.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $477 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | -7.0 | -207 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -350 |
| Market (15 books) | -8.5 | -353 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +300 | +233 | +5.1% |
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +8.5 | -105 | -125 | +4.4% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amToledo -1.5should be Toledo -2.5 · getting 1 pt at Caesars · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 49 -109 | -122 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1.5 -112 | 49 -109 | -122 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 49 -110 | -124 | +100 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | -124 | +106 |
| Courtside | — | 52.5 -186 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -127 | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -116 | 48.5 -116 | -132 | +100 |
Marked: best for Toledo, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Toledo -1.5 · -110 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -2.0. The market has moved 4.5 toward Toledo, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -146 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (16 books) | -2.5 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -1.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -124 | -129 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -115 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.9 consensus.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 1:00pmNorthern Illinois +10should be Northern Illinois +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +9Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 10, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Northern Illinois's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -385 | +290 |
| BetAnything | -9 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -385 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -385 | +285 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 55 -112 | -400 | +305 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 +110 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 55.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -385 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 54.5 -125 | -391 | +265 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -296 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -164 |
| Market (16 books) | -10.0 | -351 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +10.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +320 | +272 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus; total 56.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmKennesaw State +4.5should be Kennesaw State +4.5 at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -135 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -221 |
| Market (16 books) | -4.5 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +4.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +160 | +156 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmUTEP +13should be UTEP +13 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 13, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 80°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +11.0, now +13.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from UTEP, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +14.0 | +432 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +238 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +329 |
| Market (16 books) | +13.0 | +496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +13.5 | -108 | -108 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +450 | +387 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmMissouri +6should be Missouri +6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 6, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Missouri is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 58.5 | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 58.5 | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -200 | +165 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -5.5 -109 | 59.5 -112 | -200 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 59.5 -113 | -205 | +163 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -6 -110 | 81.5 -2043 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -6 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 58.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -205 | +168 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -230 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -106 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -232 | +184 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 59.5 -111 | -242 | +176 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 4.3 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 59.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -183 |
| Massey | PK | +102 |
| Market (15 books) | -6.0 | -193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +6.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +170 | +181 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 59.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBaylor -10should be Baylor -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 10, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 8.5 to Baylor by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -121 53¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -121 53¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -385 | +270 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -385 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 54 -112 | -385 | +265 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -312 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 55.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 55 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 54.5 -116 | -420 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.6 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -327 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -181 |
| Market (16 books) | -10.0 | -331 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears -9.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | -335 | -282 | -3.2% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.6 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amVirginia Tech -14should be Virginia Tech -14 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +14.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | +440 | -715 |
| BetUS | +14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +14.5 -107 | 52.5 -110 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -1261 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +15 -110 | 53 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -118 | 52.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +450 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14.5 -101 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +460 | -676 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | +440 | -752 |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 62°F, 39% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Boston College).
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +14.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| FPI | +15.0 | +505 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +314 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (16 books) | +14.0 | +603 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -14.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -609 | -444 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +14.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amIllinois +27should be Illinois +26.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -27.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | — | +1500 |
| BetAnything | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -27.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | — | +1500 |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1400 |
| BetUS | -27.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -996 | — | +2889 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -27.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 53.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 4¢ +1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -106 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1250 |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ohio State).
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -27.5 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1644 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -957 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1043 |
| Market (15 books) | -27.0 | -4331 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5 | -105 | +101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +2500 | +2229 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -27.5 consensus; total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amLouisville -13should be Louisville -12.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 13.5 to Louisville by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 58 -113 | -625 | +425 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -13 -112 | 58 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -1784 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 58 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -549 | +390 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 58.5 -111 | -575 | +360 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $192 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -11.5 | -329 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -377 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -327 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.0 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +400 | +372 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 55should be 53.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -36.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -36.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 55.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -36.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -36.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -36.5 -110 | 54.5 -117 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -996 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 53.5 56¢ -138 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -36.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -101 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -36.5 -114 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2379 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (15 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +36.5 | -110 | -133 | +4.7% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amUnder 56should be 54.3 · getting 1.7 pts · was 54.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -107 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -107 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -21 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -21 -105 | 54.5 -112 | -1600 | +1050 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -21 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1100 |
| BetRivers | -21 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -1700 | +950 |
| Courtside | — | 39.5 +565 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 55.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 55 -105 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -2000 | +980 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -1500 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -111 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1408 | +770 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -111 | 54.5 -119 | -1587 | +680 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1919 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -531 |
| Market (16 books) | -20.5 | -1499 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +21.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +1000 | +915 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus; total 56.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 1:00pmNotre Dame -27.5should be Notre Dame -27 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetAnything | +27.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +1850 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -113 | +1400 | — |
| BetUS | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +27.5 -107 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -3302 | +1878 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -112 | 57.5 -112 | +1700 | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | +27.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 5¢ +1329 all-in | 96¢ -4900 all-in |
| Fanatics | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +2000 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +27.5 +100 | 57.5 -110 | +1100 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +1200 | — |
| ReBet | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -116 | +980 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2132 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +639 |
| Massey | +25.0 | +1756 |
| Market (16 books) | +27.5 | +3339 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +27.5 | -106 | +108 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2000 | +2433 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmBoise State -7should be Boise State -7 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | +240 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| Courtside | — | 47.5 -106 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +260 | -325 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +245 | -310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +260 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -116 | 48.5 -111 | +250 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Boise State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.6 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +264 |
| Market (16 books) | +7.0 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -7.0 | -120 | +116 | -8.3% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -315 | -206 | -8.6% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmMichigan -4should be Michigan -4.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Michigan by 5.5 to Michigan by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -115 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 37.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -115 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 37.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -200 | +165 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -108 | 37.5 -115 | -200 | +160 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -200 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -113 | -205 | +163 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | — | 35.5 +115 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -108 | 37.5 -115 | -198 | +164 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 38 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -196 | +162 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 37.5 -120 | -205 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | -200 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 38 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -200 | +161 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -109 | 37.5 -116 | -210 | +154 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Iowa).
Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -3.5, only $420 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.3 consensus.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -166 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (17 books) | -4.0 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -4.5 | -105 | +112 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -191 | -158 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-18 14:31.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.3 consensus; total 38.0 here against 37.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUtah -7.5should be Utah -9.5 · getting 2 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 9.5. 2.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +10 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -109 | 49.5 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +10.5 -112 | 49 -110 | +350 | -460 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -252 | +371 | -454 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +360 | -470 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -115 | 49 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +325 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -111 | 49.5 -111 | +320 | -490 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 25% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Iowa State).
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +10.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +278 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +142 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +213 |
| Market (15 books) | +7.5 | +420 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -7.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -376 | -272 | -5.9% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +10.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNew Mexico -12should be New Mexico -13.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 12, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
All 18 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -102 | 48.5 -110 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +380 | -560 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | +13.5 -103 | 48.5 -112 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -108 | 56.5 -416 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +450 | -630 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +425 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -106 | 49 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | +400 | -676 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.
TOM: spread +12.0 here against +13.6 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +508 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +311 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +319 |
| Market (16 books) | +12.0 | +544 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -12.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -566 | -412 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -105 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +12.0 here against +13.6 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:00pmHouston -17.5should be Houston -17.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | -1087 91¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | -1087 91¢ |
| Bally Bet | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetAnything | +18 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | +850 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 -110 | 54 -114 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetUS | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +850 | -1450 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -137 | +842 | -1252 |
| DraftKings | +18.5 -112 | 54.5 -120 | +800 | -1350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +17.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in |
| Fanatics | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +800 | -1300 |
| FanDuel | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +740 | -1250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +19.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +650 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +18.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | +630 | -1000 |
| ReBet | +19.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | +570 | -1205 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +18.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $118 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.6 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +16.5 | +579 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +542 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +459 |
| Market (16 books) | +17.5 | +1048 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars -17.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | -1087 | -673 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.6 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmSouth Florida -17.5should be South Florida -18 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -131 55¢ | — | -869 89¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -131 55¢ | — | -869 89¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -113 | 50.5 -112 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetAnything | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +775 | -1100 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +17.5 -113 | 50.5 -112 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -114 | 50.5 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetUS | +18 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +17.5 -108 | 49.5 -117 | +700 | -1200 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -2584 | +733 | -1032 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +700 | -1100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +17.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 49.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in | 89¢ -1011 all-in |
| Fanatics | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +760 | -1250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +17.5 -106 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +18 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +630 | -1099 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -119 | 50.5 -114 | +570 | -1205 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1148 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +467 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +616 |
| Market (16 books) | +17.5 | +987 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -17.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -869 | -719 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmVirginia -20should be Virginia -20 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -20 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1700 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -106 | 54.5 -152 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 52.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -101 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1408 | +750 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -119 | 52.5 -111 | -1493 | +660 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -515 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1163 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -2106 |
| Market (16 books) | -20.0 | -1265 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +20.5 | -110 | +102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +850 | +908 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread -20.0 here against -20.3 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmJames Madison -4.5should be James Madison -6 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 6. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -126 54¢ | +174 35¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -126 54¢ | +174 35¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -110 | 48.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5 -110 | 48.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +155 | -200 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 47 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +160 | -193 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -798 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 47.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 48 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +180 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -106 | 47 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +182 | -228 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | 48.5 -111 | +174 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.1 consensus.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +237 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +162 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +203 |
| Market (16 books) | +4.5 | +189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -4.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -197 | -182 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -115 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.1 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 54should be 51.6 · getting 2.2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.5.
The spread
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -41.5 -109 | 53.5 -116 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (14 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +41.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03.
The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmAlabama -13should be Alabama -12.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 13, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -110 | 55 -108 | -590 | +420 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13 -110 | 55 -108 | -590 | +420 |
| BetRivers | -13 -112 | 55 -109 | -590 | +410 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 +131 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 53.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -125 | -550 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 54.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -526 | +340 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Alabama).
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -388 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.0 | -476 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +13.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +390 | +376 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -133 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 5.3.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmSouthern Miss +18.5should be Southern Miss +18.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -113 | -1250 | +750 |
| BetAnything | -19 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -113 | -1250 | +750 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -112 | 52.5 -114 | -1430 | +700 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -1700 | +850 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -221 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -1450 | +850 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| LowVig.ag | -19.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1099 | +670 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 52.5 -116 | -1299 | +600 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulane).
Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $121 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -498 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -947 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -667 |
| Market (16 books) | -18.5 | -1144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +19.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +900 | +733 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulane Green Wave since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.1 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNC State -13.5should be NC State -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -13.5 -108 | 54.5 -117 | -560 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -359 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -108 | 54.5 -120 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -599 | +410 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 54.5 -116 | -625 | +380 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -981 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -533 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.5 | -498 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +13.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +410 | +405 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmOregon -2.5should be Oregon -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 62.5 | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
All 20 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 62.5 | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 62.5 -108 | +110 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 62.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 62.5 -108 | +110 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -114 | 62 -114 | +108 | -134 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 62.5 -110 | +113 | -134 |
| Courtside | — | 81.5 -565 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 62.5 -108 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 61.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +115 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -115 | +105 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -104 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +111 | -135 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 62.5 -114 | +106 | -141 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.4 toward Oregon).
Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +132 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (17 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -2.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -135 | -129 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 62.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmArkansas -6.5should be Arkansas -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas by 7 to Arkansas by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 53 -115 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -105 | 52.5 -112 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 52.5 -113 | -310 | +245 |
| Courtside | — | 41.5 +338 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -102 | 52.5 -115 | -305 | +245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 52.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 53 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -101 | 53 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -319 | +246 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -116 | 52.5 -116 | -340 | +238 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Tulsa).
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +6.5, only $24 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $362 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -286 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -679 |
| Market (16 books) | -6.5 | -283 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks -6.5 | -113 | +102 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | -263 | -205 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -7.5 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmMissouri State +34.5should be Missouri State +33 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -35 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -113 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 79.5 -1768 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -110 | 58.5 -108 | — | +3000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -106 | 58 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -109 | 58.5 -116 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2727 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -29.0 | -3184 |
| Market (15 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +3534 | +6015 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.8 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmMassachusetts -5.5should be Massachusetts -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Massachusetts by 6 to Massachusetts by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 49 -115 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 49.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -112 | 48.5 -118 | +189 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -697 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 49 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 49.5 -109 | +185 | -255 |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| FPI | +11.5 | +330 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -178 |
| Market (16 books) | +5.5 | +213 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -6.5 | +104 | +119 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -210 | -176 | -4.0% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmFresno State -13should be Fresno State -14 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -501 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -456 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -503 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.0 | -542 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -550 | -437 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sun Sep 27
14 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmBills -7no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -6.5, only $27 available; Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $4 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $278 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ty Johnson (RB, Bills), Skyler Bell (WR, Bills), David Njoku (TE, Chargers) and 4 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers's last game | |
| Market (13 books) | -7.0 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmPanthers -2.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 40 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -106 | 40.5 -114 | +120 | -148 |
| BetMGM | +3 -112 | 40.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 40 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -106 | 40.5 -114 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -106 | 40.5 -114 | +120 | -148 |
| Caesars | +3 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +125 | -148 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 41.5 +100 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 41.5 -102 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -115 | +125 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 40 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 40.5 -110 | +118 | -151 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +100 | 41.5 +100 | — | -150 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 40.5 -120 | +121 | -148 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $309 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Toriano Pride Jr. (CB, Browns), Daniel Thomas (S, Browns), Justin Jefferson (LB, Browns) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmBengals -3.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | — | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +102 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | — | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 44 -108 | +145 | -177 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +102 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 44 -108 | +145 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 44 -108 | +145 | -177 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 | +146 | -173 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 43.5 -118 | +146 | -174 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -105 | +145 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +107 | 43.5 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -117 | — | -178 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Bengals). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $491 available; Over 43.5, only $88 available; Under 43.5, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Drew Allar (Steelers), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out; Josh Johnson (Bengals), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Ke'Shawn Williams (WR, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers), Connor Lew (C, Bengals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | +3.5 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.3.
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmLions -7no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -335 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 48 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -335 | +260 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | -335 | +270 |
| Courtside | -7 -118 | 47.5 -108 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -355 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | 48.5 -104 | -285 | — |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets +6.5, only $8 available; New York Jets ML, only $130 available; Detroit Lions -6.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ennis Rakestraw Jr. (CB, Lions), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets), Jimmy Rolder (LB, Lions) and 2 more.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New York Jets and Detroit Lions's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Jets and Detroit Lions's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -308 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmTexans -1.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Colts).
Backup QB out: Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: DJ Giddens (RB, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Brevin Jordan (TE, Texans) and 6 more.
Indianapolis Colts has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Houston Texans's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Houston Texans's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Houston Texans's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Houston Texans's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | +1.5 | +116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmJaguars -2.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | — | -148 58¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | — | -148 58¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -114 | -137 | +116 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -118 | -146 | +124 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +105 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -108 | -138 | — |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $88 available; Under 45.5, only $95 available; New England Patriots ML, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Quinn Ewers (Jaguars), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: CJ Williams (WR, Jaguars), Tanner Koziol (TE, Jaguars), Mike Onwenu (G, Patriots) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Jacksonville Jaguars's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmChiefs -10.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Brady Cook (Dolphins), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jalen Tolbert (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.
Kansas City Chiefs has had 12 days off against 6, worth about 0.3 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | +10.5 | +553 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmGiants -5.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 42.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 42.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43 -107 | -278 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 43 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43 -107 | -278 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -114 | 43 -107 | -278 | +220 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -108 | 42.5 -120 | -250 | +205 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 61¢ -170 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -104 | 42.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -275 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -105 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | -285 | — |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants -5.5, only $34 available; Tennessee Titans +5.5, only $31 available; Over 42.5, only $378 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Kylen Granson (TE, Titans), Atonio Mafi (G, Titans), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
New York Giants has had 13 days off against 7, worth about 0.3 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | -5.5 | -245 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmSeahawks -6no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | +240 28¢ | -290 73¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 41 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | +240 28¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | +200 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 41.5 -108 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 41 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | +200 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -112 | +200 | -250 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -108 | 41 -113 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 41.5 -108 | +194 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 39.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -118 | 41.5 -115 | +225 | -275 |
| Fliff | — | 41.5 -110 | +205 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -105 | 41 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 41.5 +100 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 3.4 toward Seahawks). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +6.5, only $34 available; Seattle Seahawks -6.5, only $25 available; Under 41.5, only $116 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Athan Kaliakmanis (Commanders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off the Four, so the number here already carries the backup.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off the Four, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Luke McCaffrey (WR, Commanders), Tanoa Togiai (G, Commanders), Isaac Yiadom (CB, Commanders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | +6.0 | +229 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 12:05.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm49ers -8.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -500 | +365 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -500 | +375 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +385 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -570 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -105 | 48 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | -7.5 | 47.5 -117 | -376 | — |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +8.5, only $52 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $110 available; San Francisco 49ers -7.5, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Carson Beck (Cardinals), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jordan Watkins (WR, 49ers), Reggie Virgil (WR, Cardinals), Andrew Billings (DT, Cardinals).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | -8.5 | -443 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmVikings -2.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -108 | +112 | -136 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -108 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -108 | +112 | -136 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -114 | 44.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -113 | 44.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 62¢ -178 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | +113 | -133 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Vikings).
Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $213 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Caleb Tiernan (OT, Vikings), Billy Schrauth (G, Buccaneers), Luke Haggard (G, Buccaneers) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 1.4.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | — |
All 12 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +3 -117 | 51.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetMGM | +3 -112 | 52 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -117 | 51.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 51.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| Caesars | +3 -115 | 51.5 -114 | +127 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -113 | 51.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3 -118 | 51.5 -118 | +128 | -152 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 52.5 -105 | +125 | -155 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | — | +138 | — |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $108 available; Baltimore Ravens -2.5, only $68 available; Baltimore Ravens ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Joe Fagnano (Ravens), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Tyler Goodson (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Ajani Cornelius (OT, Cowboys) and 3 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys's last game | |
| Market (9 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmSaints -3no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 44 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 44 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 44 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -122 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -113 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 44.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| FanDuel | -3 -115 | 43.5 -118 | -168 | +140 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +105 | 43.5 -120 | -180 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 43.5 -113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 -117 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints -3.5, only $96 available; Over 44.5, only $88 available; Under 44.5, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Zach Wilson (Saints), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Darien Porter (CB, Raiders), Tristin McCollum (S, Raiders), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmRams -2.5no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +114 | -139 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +114 | -139 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | +120 | -141 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -133 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $116 available; Under 45.5, only $117 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: RJ Harvey (RB, Broncos), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 7, worth about 0.5 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Denver Broncos's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Denver Broncos's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Denver Broncos's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Denver Broncos's last game | |
| Market (10 books) | +2.5 | +129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Mon Sep 28
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmOver 43should be 44.6 · getting 1.4 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -208 66¢ |
All 9 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 43 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +4 -108 | 43.5 -108 | +170 | -210 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 43 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 43 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 43.5 -110 | +168 | -200 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -213 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 43.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $272 available; Over 43.5, only $12 available; Under 43.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Caleb Williams (Bears), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Backup QB out: Case Keenum (Bears), Out; Cole Payton (Eagles), Out; Tanner McKee (Eagles), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Elijah Moore (WR, Eagles), Ozzy Trapilo (OT, Bears), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| Market (6 books) | +4.0 | +193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1844%-5.19 units32 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 15. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-18 | 43.8% | -5.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 134 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 18:04.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 71 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.67 | 56 |
| FPI | 9.86 | 111 |
| SP+ | 10.03 | 111 |
| The market | 10.21 | 162 |
| Sagarin | 11.70 | 152 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 57 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 56 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 57 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 71 |
The line archive, 162 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.46 points better than the close on average over 152 games. The close misses the final by 10.10, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.32, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.33, MyBookie.ag 9.83, Kalshi 9.91.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 9 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.24 | 26 |
| nfelo | 11.58 | 26 |
| Sagarin | 11.81 | 26 |
| FPI | 11.99 | 11 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 9 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 9 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 9 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 9 |
The line archive, 26 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 14 times, against it 7, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.75 points better than the close on average over 21 games. The close misses the final by 11.11, the open by 11.40, our raw ratings number by 11.67, Pinnacle's close by 11.15. Sharpest closing books: Fanatics 11.04, Kalshi 11.04, BetRivers 11.08.
The head start. 52 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 17 times, against it 11, average 0.26 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 17.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 56 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 20 of 56 moved our way, average +0.3 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 21. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Madison at Old Dominion | James Madison -3 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | no call |
| Minnesota at Washington | Minnesota Golden +9.3 | 9.3 | 8.5 | +0.8 | no call |
| Missouri at Mississippi State | Under | 60 | 58.5 | +1.5 | no call |
| Nebraska at Michigan State | Over | 48.1 | 49 | +0.9 | no call |
| Northern Illinois at Georgia State | Under | 54.8 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| San Diego State at Toledo | Toledo +1.8 | 1.8 | -2.5 | +4.3 | no call |
| South Florida at Bowling Green | Under | 53.5 | 51 | +2.5 | no call |
| Tulsa at Arkansas | Tulsa Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 7 | +2.5 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 113 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 62 | 14.8 | 18-27 (40%) | 12-14 (46%) |
| Massey | 66 | 13.8 | 14-17 (45%) | 5-11 (31%) |
| The blend | 67 | 14.1 | 14-23 (38%) | 9-11 (45%) |
NFL, 20 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 16 | 9.8 | 6-6 (50%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 14 | 9.3 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 16 | 8.4 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 16 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 75 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 8:54pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.3Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
- → 3.7Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 84 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 69 | 8.78 |
| SP+ | 111 | 10.03 |
| FPI | 126 | 10.25 |
| The market | 192 | 10.45 |
| Sagarin | 182 | 11.78 |
| nfelo | 30 | 12.05 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 85-92 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 824764 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.18 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 123 | 1.70 |
| DraftKings | 280 | 1.41 |
| FanDuel | 306 | 1.38 |
| LowVig.ag | 260 | 1.32 |
| BetOnline.ag | 268 | 1.31 |
| BetRivers | 286 | 1.29 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.21 |
| BetMGM | 226 | 1.17 |
| Caesars | 222 | 1.16 |
| BetUS | 156 | 1.14 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.14 |
| MyBookie.ag | 205 | 1.13 |
| TOM | 241 | 1.05 |
| Courtside | 35 | 1.04 |
| Fanatics | 238 | 1.03 |
| ReBet | 76 | 0.88 |
| betPARX | 77 | 0.84 |
| Bally Bet | 77 | 0.84 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 56 | 0.78 |
| Fliff | 40 | 0.47 |
| theScore Bet | 39 | 0.45 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 5 days ago