Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

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picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Fri 5:08 pm · 4 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +10.5-108 at DraftKings+3.8%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +8.5 -110. Now UCF +10.5 -108, 2 points better. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+10.5 open Sunnow +10.5Nasty Number +8 Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +3.550¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions+3.4%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Wed 3:29pm. Still on the board: DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in). All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+4 open Sunnow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5 San Diego State at Oregon StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsSan Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Wed 7:49amStill a playSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -105 at Caesars, 1.5 points better than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.North Dakota State at UNLV▲UNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amStill a playSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. UNLV +2.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions, half a point worse, 4 cents better than the +3 +100 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.

Buck's Take

Four Nasty Picks and One Nasty Dog on the counter this week: UCF +10.5, Texas A&M +3.5, UNLV +3 +100 at TOM, San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel and Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Read the receipt before you bet it.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt, Vanderbilt +9.5. Every system has Ole Miss by 5; the market has Ole Miss by 9.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +10.

Giants at Commanders, Giants +4. Every system has Commanders by 0.5; the market has Commanders by 4. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is NC State +3.5 (Wake Forest at NC State) at 3.2% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio -2, 1.5 points our way since the open.

Since the last build, North Dakota State at UNLV climbed to Damn Near Nasty; North Carolina at Pittsburgh slipped to A Little Nasty.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: UCF at Oklahoma State, UCF +10.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.

Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M to win+150 at DraftKings+3.6%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa to win +140 at DraftKingsNasty Dog · called Tue 11:53amDon't chaseFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings on Tuesday; now Iowa to win · +125 at Caesars. The number hasn't moved but the price is 15 cents worse, from +140 to +125, and at +125 the edge is 2.2%, under the 2.5% a posted pick has to keep. If you already have it, you're set. It's a play again at +140 or better.

Damn Near Nasty

5 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Ole Miss at VanderbiltVanderbilt +9.5-103 (49¢) at Kalshi · 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Becomes a Nasty Pick at +10 for 49¢ at Kalshi · half a point away

Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel or Fanatics +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (1.5%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -108 (0.6%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars or TOM +9.5 at -112 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

4 more later this week

Giants at CommandersGiants +4should be Giants +3 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Giants): TOM +4 at -108 (4.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -102 (3.9%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (3.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (3.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +4 at -110 (3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4 (the games that land on 4); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.

Colts at SteelersColts +3-115 at DraftKings · 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +3 at -115 (2.9%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.8%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-0.3%).

Broncos at ChargersChargers +3.5-108 · 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Chargers): TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.9%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (1.9%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (1.7%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (1.3%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (0.6%).

49ers at Seahawks49ers +3+105 · 2.0% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +105 (2.0%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.5%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.2%) · FanDuel +3 at -104 (-0.2%).Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); -120 costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than +105. The price wins.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio -2. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the line has moved 1.5 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Misses the Cut: needs 4.5% after the price.

Central Michigan at Ohio▲Moved our way · 1.5 ptsOhio -2should be Ohio -3 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Ohio): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (3.2%) · Caesars -2 at -109 (2.9%) · Fanatics or TOM -2 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -115 (2.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -2 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -2.5 (the games that land on 2); -109 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. The price wins by a hair.

Wake Forest at NC StateMoved our way · 1 ptNC State +3.5should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at KalshiSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (NC State): Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (3.2%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (2.4%) · Caesars +3.5 at -118 (1.8%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (1.3%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +3 at -105 (1.3%).

UCLA at OregonMoved our way · 1 ptOregon -10should be Oregon -11.5 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Oregon): TOM -10 at -112 (0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -10.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars -10.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -114 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Miami (OH) at Massachusetts▲Miami (OH) to winour data says 65 in 100 · -170Sat 1:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (1.8%) · TOM -185 (-0.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -190 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -192 (-1.0%) · Caesars -210 (-3.0%).

Wyoming at San José StateSan José State to winour data says 65 in 100 · -172Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (San José State to win): TOM -172 (1.7%) · Fanatics -180 (0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -185 (-0.0%) · Caesars or Kalshi -190 (-0.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -194 (64¢ on the app) (-1.1%).

Washington State at Utah State▲Washington State +4should be Washington State +3 · getting 1 ptFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Washington State): Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (1.9%) · TOM +4 at -110 (1.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars +4 at -112 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +3.5 (the games that land on 4); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. The price wins by a hair.

Virginia Tech at CaliforniaCalifornia +9.5should be California +8.5 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (California): TOM +9.5 at +102 (1.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars +10 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.2%).Points or price: +10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +9.5 (the games that land on 10); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +102. The price wins.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh▼Pittsburgh to winour data says 65 in 100 · -175Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): BetMGM or TOM -175 (0.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics -179 (0.4%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings -185 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -194 (64¢ on the app) (-1.5%).

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Totals, on their own, ranked by edge. Two numbers read every total: the model (each team's pace, efficiency and scoring this season, the weather and the market, fitted on four seasons) and the pace number (plays times points per play). College posts when the total opens 2 or more off the model with the pace number on the same side, or 3 off either alone; the read is good for about 12 hours, and the market has usually closed most of it by then. The NFL posts when the model sits 4 or more off the market, any day of the week; it is the newest number here with the shortest record. Team totals and first-half totals read the pace number at 3 points scaled to their size. The edge is the backtest's win chance on a gap that size less what the price costs: low single digits at best, and the ranking is the point. Each one is posted at the number shown and graded there, in its own record. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Vikings at Saints#1 Over 41.5-110 at BetMGM · model 51.5, pace number 45, market 41.9 · edge +1.3%Model numberSun 12:00pmStill there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, DraftKings -112.

Lions at Cardinals#2 Under 54.5-105 at DraftKings · model 50.3, pace number 52.4, market 54.5 · edge +1.1%Model numberSun 3:25pmStill there: DraftKings -105, Caesars -110, BetMGM -110.

Browns at Jets#3 Over 39.5-110 at BetMGM · model 45, pace number 43.7, market 39.8 · edge +0.2%Model numberSun 12:00pmStill there: Kalshi -104, DraftKings -112, Caesars -115.

Delaware at Middle Tennessee#4 Over 46.5-110 at FanDuel · model 49.6, pace number 49.4, market 46.5, ratings 50.1 · edge +0.2%Model and paceTue 6:00pmThe number is gone. Best now Over 47.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt our way. Don't chase.

Moved closer since the 4:32pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 4:32pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Washington State at Utah State 8:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.
Miami (OH) at Massachusetts tomorrow 1:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
Central Michigan at Ohio tomorrow 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -3.0 to -2.0; the price from -105 to -110; the market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
Kent State at Western Michigan tomorrow 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Western Michigan -13.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.5.
UConn at Temple tomorrow 2:45pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at UConn +3.5: 3.4 cents short at today's line, was 4.7.The line went from -3.5 to +3.5; the price from -108 to -105.
Florida State at Louisville 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Florida State +4.5: 3.5 cents short at today's line, was 4.7.The line went from +4.0 to +4.5.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 8:33am✓SagarinSun 10:16am✓MasseyFri 9:18am✓SP+ sat out for 109 teams: no rebuild by Tuesday 9am, so their games are priced on the systems that have. 14 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloWed 7:47am✓FPIFri 3:50pm✓SagarinTue 10:42am✓MasseyFri 9:18am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

When the Nasty Number disagrees with the market by 3 or more, that side has covered 8 of 31 this season.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereTotals That Are Just Flat Nasty a total 3+ points off the pace number, posted inside 12 hours of opening; its own record, never a pickNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

5 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at Washington

CFB 8:00pm

Iowa to win +140 at DraftKingsMoved our way · 1 pt

Don't chase · now Iowa to win · +125 at Caesars

Nasty Dog · called at +140Don't chaseBuck's case ›

Nasty Dog. Posted Tuesday at Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings on Tuesday; now Iowa to win · +125 at Caesars. The number hasn't moved but the price is 15 cents worse, from +140 to +125, and at +125 the edge is 2.2%, under the 2.5% a posted pick has to keep. If you already have it, you're set. It's a play again at +140 or better. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 2.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 3TOM, +103

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game

FPI

Iowa by 46.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Iowa by 1.54.7 pts our side

Massey

Iowa by 25.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Washington by 21.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM

Model number

38.32.7 pts under the market

Pace number

46.35.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

37.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

40.20.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.3, 5 pts over the market's 41.3; the model says 38.3, 3 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-3 +103	41 -117	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -102	41.5 +100	-151	+134

All 24 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-3 +103	41 -117	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-3 -106	41 -109	-152	+120
BetAnything	-3 +100	41 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-3 -105	40.5 -120	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 +103	41 -117	-150	+130
betPARX	-3 -106	41 -109	-152	+120
BetRivers	-3 -107	41 -110	-152	+120
BetUS	-3 +100	41.5 -105	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -105	41 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-2.5 -120	41.5 -107	-150	+126
Courtside	-2.5 -118	41.5 -106	-145	+127
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	41.5 -108	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 47¢ +104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	41.5 -105	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	40.5 -118	-150	+125
Fliff	-2.5 -130	40.5 -125	-155	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	40.5 -115	-150	+120
LowVig.ag	-3 +107	41 -116	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -120	41.5 -110	-152	+124
Pinnacle	-3 -102	41.5 +100	-151	+134
Polymarket	-2.5 -117	41.5 +104	-138	+133
ReBet	-3 -105	41.5 -111	-152	+124
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	41.5 -105	-145	+125

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): Fanatics or BetMGM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or Caesars +2.5 at +101 (1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (1.3%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (0.9%) · TOM +3 at -123 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · +125 at Caesars

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Iowa to win): Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +126 (2.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +124 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

The total · 41.5

The pace number is 46.3, 5 pts over the market's 41.3; the model says 38.3, 3 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 56°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.8 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +3.5.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game
FPI	+4.0	+167
Sagarin	+1.5	+113
Massey	+2.0	+117
Market (20 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+125	+115	+2.2%
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +3.0	-115	-123	+1.7%
Total	Under 41.0	-103	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.3 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah State

CFB 8:00pm

Washington State +4

should be Washington State +3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2

▲A Little Nasty · Washington StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Washington State. Market says Utah State by 4, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Washington State than the bookmore Utah State →

Market

Utah State by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game

FPI

Utah State by 51.1 pts against us

Sagarin

Utah State by 1.52.7 pts our side

Massey

Washington State by 2.56.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Utah State by 30.9 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Washington State. FPI at Utah State by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Washington State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

Model number

42.61.9 pts under the market

Pace number

450.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

386.5 pts under the market

Massey

46.41.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 45, 1.2 pts over the market's 43.8; the model says 42.6, 1.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-4 -110	44.5 +101	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-4 -102	43.5 -117	-174	+152

All 24 books

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-4 -110	44.5 +101	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -114	43.5 -115	-175	+138
BetAnything	-4 -110	44.5 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	44.5 +101	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 -114	43.5 -115	-175	+138
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	43.5 -117	-175	+138
BetUS	-4 -110	44 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-3.5 -115	44 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-4 -108	44.5 -104	-190	+155
Courtside	-4 -106	44.5 -103	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4 -108	44.5 -105	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 46¢ +108 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	44 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	44.5 -106	-192	+158
Fliff	-4.5 -105	43.5 -125	-190	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -115	43.5 -115	-170	+140
LowVig.ag	-4 -106	44.5 +103	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	44 -110	-193	+157
Pinnacle	-4 -102	43.5 -117	-174	+152
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	—	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -105	44 -116	-191	+154
theScore Bet	-3.5 -120	44.5 +100	-185	+155

Marked: best for Washington State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington State +4.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington State): Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (1.9%) · TOM +4 at -110 (1.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars +4 at -112 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Washington State to win · +158 at FanDuel

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Washington State to win): FanDuel +158 (2.1%) · Caesars or DraftKings +155 (1.7%) · Kalshi 38¢ (1.2%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (0.9%) · TOM +145 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 44

The pace number is 45, 1.2 pts over the market's 43.8; the model says 42.6, 1.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Washington State +4.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Washington State.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah State by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game
FPI	-5.0	-187
Sagarin	-1.5	-109
Massey	+2.5	+121
Market (20 books)	-4.0	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	42.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+158	+145	+2.1%
Spread	Washington State Cougars +4.0	-110	-118	+1.7%
Total	Under 44.5	-121	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José State

CFB 8:00pm

San José State to win

our data says 65 in 100 · -172

A Little Nasty · San José StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, San José State. Market says San José State by 4, the Nasty Number says San José State by 5. At -172 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore San José State →

Market

San José State by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game

FPI

San José State by 8.54.6 pts our side

Sagarin

San José State by 73 pts our side

Massey

San José State by 5.51.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

San José State by 50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean San José State. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

Model number

47.24.2 pts over the market

Pace number

44.41.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

37.65.4 pts under the market

Massey

41.91.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 44.4, 1.8 pts over the market's 42.6; the model says 47.2, 4.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-4 -110	43 -110	-172	+142
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	42.5 -116 52¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-4 -105	42.5 -112	-177	+155

All 24 books

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-4 -110	43 -110	-172	+142
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	42.5 -116 52¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -110	42.5 -110	-182	+145
BetAnything	-4 -110	43 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	42.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	43 -110	-172	+151
betPARX	-4.5 -110	42.5 -110	-182	+145
BetRivers	-4.5 -112	42.5 -112	-182	+145
BetUS	-4 -110	43 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-4 -110	42.5 -115	-180	+155
Caesars	-4 -110	42.5 -114	-190	+157
Courtside	-4.5 -105	42.5 -110	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	42.5 -112	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	42.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-4.5 -105	43.5 -108	-194	+160
Fliff	-3.5 -120	42.5 -120	-190	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -110	42.5 -110	-180	+145
LowVig.ag	-4 -106	43 -108	-172	+151
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	43 -110	-191	+154
Pinnacle	-4 -105	42.5 -112	-177	+155
Polymarket	-3.5	43.5 +113	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -116	42.5 -116	-218	+159
theScore Bet	-4.5 +100	43.5 -105	-175	+150

Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State -3.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San José State): BetMGM -3.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM -4 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -4.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

San José State to win · -172 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (San José State to win): TOM -172 (1.7%) · Fanatics -180 (0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -185 (-0.0%) · Caesars or Kalshi -190 (-0.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -194 (64¢ on the app) (-1.1%).

Not Nasty

The total · 42.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State to win · -172 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from San José State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans -3.5, only $147 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 43.0 here against 42.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSan José State by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game
FPI	-8.5	-303
Sagarin	-7.0	-240
Massey	-5.5	-191
Market (20 books)	-4.0	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	San Jose State Spartans ML	-172	-185	+1.7%
Spread	San Jose State Spartans -3.5	-110	-115	+1.0%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 43.0 here against 42.6 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at Louisville

CFB 6:00pm

Louisville -4

should be Louisville -4 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 4, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game

FPI

Louisville by 1.5

Sagarin

Louisville by 4

Massey

Louisville by 4.5

Nasty Number

Louisville by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5TOM

Model number

61.10.6 pts over the market

Pace number

57.72.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

66.56 pts over the market

Massey

58.12.4 pts under the market

The pace number is 57.7, 2.3 pts under the market's 60; the model says 61.1, 1.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-183	+153
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	60.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -115	59.5 -115	-182	+159

All 24 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-183	+153
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	60.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -113	60.5 -109	-195	+155
BetAnything	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-190	+165
BetMGM	-4 -110	60.5 -105	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-183	+160
betPARX	-4 -113	60.5 -109	-195	+155
BetRivers	-4 -114	60.5 -110	-195	+150
BetUS	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-185	+159
Bovada	-4 -110	60 -115	-185	+160
Caesars	-4 -112	60.5 -109	-190	+154
Courtside	-4 -110	60.5 -103	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4 -112	60.5 -105	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 50¢ -108 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	60.5 -110	-196	+162
Fliff	-4.5 -110	60.5 -115	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -120	60.5 -110	-190	+155
LowVig.ag	-4 -106	60.5 -108	-183	+160
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	60.5 -110	-195	+157
Pinnacle	-3.5 -115	59.5 -115	-182	+159
Polymarket	—	59.5 -108	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -116	60.5 -114	-191	+161
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	60.5 -105	-185	+155

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Florida State): FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings +4 at -108 (-1.3%) · Caesars +4 at -109 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.8%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +4 at -110 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

Florida State to win · +162 at FanDuel

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33. Where, best first (Florida State to win): FanDuel +162 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +160 (-0.9%) · Fanatics or Caesars +155 (-1.6%) · TOM or Kalshi +153 (-1.9%) · BetMGM +150 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 60

The pace number is 57.7, 2.3 pts under the market's 60; the model says 61.1, 1.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

FanDuel still has Florida State +4.5 while Pinnacle is at Louisville by 3.5.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game
FPI	-1.5	-112
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-4.5	-180
Market (20 books)	-4.0	-175

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	62.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +4.5	-110	-108	-0.5%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+162	+166	-0.6%
Total	Over 60.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYU

CFB 9:15pm

BYU -11

should be BYU -11 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 11, the Nasty Number says BYU by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore BYU →

Market

BYU by 11TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game

FPI

BYU by 13

Sagarin

BYU by 10

Massey

BYU by 4.5

Nasty Number

BYU by 110.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

Model number

492.5 pts over the market

Pace number

525.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.21.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.64.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 52, 5.2 pts over the market's 46.8; the model says 49, 2.2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11 -110	46.5 -116	-460	+330
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -126 54¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-12 -101	47 -106	-453	+358

All 24 books

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11 -110	46.5 -116	-460	+330
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -126 54¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -114	46.5 -110	-455	+340
BetAnything	-11 -110	46.5 -110	-475	+365
BetMGM	-11.5 -115	46.5 -110	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-11 -110	46.5 -116	-460	+358
betPARX	-10.5 -114	46.5 -110	-455	+340
BetRivers	-10.5 -114	46.5 -112	-530	+340
BetUS	-11 -110	47 -110	-460	+360
Bovada	-11.5 -110	47 -110	-470	+345
Caesars	-11.5 -106	46.5 -107	-480	+375
Courtside	-11.5 -106	46.5 -106	-454	+371
DraftKings	-11.5 -108	46.5 -108	-470	+360
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics	-11 -110	46.5 -115	-475	+360
FanDuel	-11.5 -105	46.5 -108	-465	+350
Fliff	-11.5 -115	46.5 -120	-480	+345
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -115	46.5 -110	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-11 -106	46.5 -115	-460	+358
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	47 -110	-450	+330
Pinnacle	-12 -101	47 -106	-453	+358
Polymarket	-10.5 -117	47.5 +108	-426	+400
ReBet	-12.5 -111	46.5 -114	-450	+330
theScore Bet	-11.5 -105	46.5 -115	-500	+360

Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State +11.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa State): BetMGM +11.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.9%) · Caesars +11.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · Fanatics or TOM +11 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +375 at Caesars

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): Caesars +375 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +360 (-0.8%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +351 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 21¢ on the app (+335 all-in) (-2.1%) · TOM +330 (-2.3%).

Off the band

The total · 47

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Iowa State).

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $145 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.6 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has BYU -11.0 while Pinnacle is at BYU by 12.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 1140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game
FPI	-13.0	-433
Sagarin	-10.0	-332
Massey	-4.5	-179
Market (20 books)	-11.0	-440

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +11.5	-105	-105	-0.1%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+375	+378	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 46.5	-116	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.6 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Tomorrow

46 gamesBest: Texas A&M +3.5, Nastiest

GameThe call

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at Missouri

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Texas A&M +3.5

should be Texas A&M +2.5 · getting 1 pt · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions · was +1

NastiestBet itBuck's case ›

Nastiest. Posted Wednesday at Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in). Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 2.5.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game

FPI

Missouri by 12.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em3.7 pts our side

Massey

Texas A&M by 1.55.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Missouri by 2.50.8 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Texas A&M, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

Model number

48.20.8 pts under the market

Pace number

51.72.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.2on the market

Massey

50.41.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.7, 2.6 pts over the market's 49.1; the model says 48.2, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	49 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -107	49 -113	-178	+153

All 24 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	49 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -109	49 -109	-182	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -105	49.5 -110	-170	+150
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-165	+140
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	49 -115	-170	+149
betPARX	-3.5 -109	49 -109	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	49 -110	-182	+143
BetUS	-3.5 -110	49 -115	-170	+146
Bovada	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -108	49.5 -105	-170	+144
Courtside	-3.5 -110	49.5 -103	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	49.5 -105	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -106	49.5 -114	-176	+146
Fliff	-3.5 -115	49.5 -115	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 -115	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -102	49 -114	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-187	+151
Pinnacle	-3.5 -107	49 -113	-178	+153
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	49.5 -104	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -114	49.5 -114	-187	+151
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	49.5 -105	-190	+160

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Texas A&M): DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -110 (3.0%) · Kalshi or Caesars +3.5 at -112 (2.7%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Texas A&M to win · +150 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Texas A&M loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +150 (3.6%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +146 (3.0%) · Caesars +144 (2.6%) · BetMGM or TOM +140 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (1.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

The total · 49

The pace number is 51.7, 2.6 pts over the market's 49.1; the model says 48.2, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $489 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game
FPI	-1.0	-105
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	+1.5	+112
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+150	+129	+3.6%
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +3.5	-110	-124	+3.0%
Total	Over 49.0	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma State

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

UCF +10.5

should be UCF +8 · getting 2.5 pts · -108 at DraftKings · was +9.5

Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +10.5 · -108 at DraftKings, 2 points better, 2 cents better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 10, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 8.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 10TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game

FPI

Oklahoma State by 37.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 46 pts our side

Massey

UCF by 110.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 82.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UCF, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

Model number

54.31.3 pts over the market

Pace number

51.11.9 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.86.2 pts under the market

Massey

48.24.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.1, 2.1 pts under the market's 53.2; the model says 54.3, 1 pt over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10 -105	53 -115	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-10 -110	53 -113	-414	+321

All 24 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10 -105	53 -115	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-10 -112	53.5 -112	-420	+310
BetAnything	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-10.5 -105	53.5 -105	-425	+325
BetOnline.ag	-10 -105	53 -115	-400	+316
betPARX	-10 -112	53.5 -112	-420	+310
BetRivers	-10 -113	53.5 -113	-435	+310
BetUS	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-10 -115	53.5 -110	-420	+315
Caesars	-10 -112	53.5 -108	-440	+330
Courtside	-10.5 -112	53.5 -110	-440	+360
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	53.5 -112	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	54.5 -106	-365	+285
Fliff	-10.5 -110	53.5 -120	-435	+315
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -120	53.5 -110	-425	+300
LowVig.ag	-10 -101	53 -114	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-10 -110	53 -113	-414	+321
Polymarket	-10.5 +108	53.5 -104	-376	+355
ReBet	-10.5 -109	53.5 -114	-420	+310
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	53.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +10.5 · -108 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (UCF): DraftKings +10.5 at -108 (3.8%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi +10.5 at -115 (2.2%) · Caesars +10 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (1.8%) · Fanatics +10 at -110 (1.7%).

The call

UCF to win · 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): DraftKings Predictions or Kalshi +355 (20¢ on the app) (3.8%) · DraftKings +350 (3.6%) · Caesars +330 (2.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +325 (2.3%) · TOM +310 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 53

The pace number is 51.1, 2.1 pts under the market's 53.2; the model says 54.3, 1 pt over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game
FPI	-3.0	-137
Sagarin	-4.0	-171
Massey	+1.0	+103
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +10.5	-108	-126	+3.8%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+355	+287	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-105	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLV

CFB tomorrow 6:00pm

UNLV +3 +100 at TOM

Bet it · now UNLV +2.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

▲Nasty Pick · called at +3 +100Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Bet it. UNLV +2.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions, half a point worse, 4 cents better than the +3 +100 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1.5.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore UNLV →

Market

North Dakota State by 3TOM, -127

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game

FPI

UNLV by 0.53.7 pts our side

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 0.52.4 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em3.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 1.51.3 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UNLV. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

54.56.5 pts over the market

Pace number

49.41.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

50.92.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.13.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.4, 1.6 pts over the market's 47.9; the model says 54.5, 6.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 -127	48 -107	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -105	48 -101	+114	-131

All 24 books

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 -127	48 -107	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2 -109	47.5 -112	+106	-130
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2.5 -110	47.5 -118	+110	-130
BetOnline.ag	+3 -127	48 -107	+117	-137
betPARX	+2 -109	47.5 -112	+106	-130
BetRivers	+2 -110	47.5 -113	+106	-130
BetUS	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+2.5 -110	47.5 -110	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -103	48 -108	+117	-137
Courtside	+2.5 -108	47.5 -113	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -108	47.5 -115	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 47¢ +104 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	47.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -102	47.5 -118	+118	-144
Fliff	+2.5 -115	47.5 -125	+110	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -115	47.5 -110	+105	-130
LowVig.ag	+3 -124	48 -105	+117	-137
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+113	-138
Pinnacle	+2.5 -105	48 -101	+114	-131
Polymarket	+2.5	47.5 -108	+122	-127
ReBet	+2.5 -111	47.5 -119	+113	-138
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	48.5 -105	+115	-135

Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.

UNLV +2.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (UNLV): DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (2.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (1.2%) · Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (0.9%) · Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (0.4%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -108 (-0.3%).

The call

UNLV to win · 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (UNLV to win): DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (2.9%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +118 (1.1%) · Caesars or TOM +117 (0.8%) · Fanatics +115 (0.4%) · DraftKings +114 (0.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UNLV, now Damn Near Nasty.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.0 or better. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +2.5, only $268 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game
FPI	-0.5	-102
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	PK	-100
Market (20 books)	+3.0	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	+127	+113	+2.9%
Spread	UNLV Rebels +2.5	+104	-107	+2.7%
Total	Over 48.0	-107	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon State

CFB tomorrow 5:00pm

San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelMoved our way · 1.5 pts

Bet it · now San Diego State +16 · -105 at Caesars

Nasty Pick · called at +14.5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -105 at Caesars, 1.5 points better than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oregon State by 16, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 14.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 16TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game

FPI

Oregon State by 10.55.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon State by 97 pts our side

Massey

Oregon State by 97.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 141.8 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

Model number

52.41.1 pts under the market

Pace number

52.80.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.17.4 pts under the market

Massey

48.84.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 52.8, 0.3 pts under the market's 53.1; the model says 52.4, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-16 -110	53.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-16.5 -104	53 -105	-726	+503

All 24 books

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-16 -110	53.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-16.5 -108	53.5 -113	-910	+550
BetAnything	-16 -110	53 -110	-800	+550
BetMGM	-16.5 -105	53.5 -110	-750	+525
BetOnline.ag	-16 -110	53.5 -105	-750	+534
betPARX	-16.5 -108	53.5 -113	-910	+550
BetRivers	-16.5 -109	53.5 -115	-910	+550
BetUS	-16 -110	53 -105	-750	+530
Bovada	-16 -110	53 -105	-750	+500
Caesars	-16 -115	53.5 -106	-800	+525
Courtside	-16.5 -106	52.5 -110	-715	+545
DraftKings	-16.5 -108	52.5 -112	-750	+525
DraftKings Predictions	-16.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-16 -110	52.5 -110	-750	+525
FanDuel	-15.5 -118	53.5 -110	-950	+610
Fliff	-16.5 -115	53.5 -115	-850	+540
Hard Rock Bet	-16.5 -110	53.5 -110	-900	+550
LowVig.ag	-16 -106	53.5 -103	-750	+534
MyBookie.ag	-16 -110	52.5 -110	-800	+530
Pinnacle	-16.5 -104	53 -105	-726	+503
Polymarket	-16.5 +104	53.5 +100	—	+567
ReBet	-16.5 -116	53 -111	-800	+530
theScore Bet	-15.5 -115	52.5 -105	-800	+500

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +16.0 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (San Diego State): Caesars +16 at -105 (2.3%) · FanDuel +15.5 at -104 (1.7%) · DraftKings +16.5 at -112 (1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +16 at -110 (1.1%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +16.5 at -115 (0.6%).

The call

San Diego State to win · +610 at FanDuel

We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): FanDuel +610 (2.7%) · Kalshi, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars +530 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 15¢ on the app (+488 all-in) (-0.2%).

Off the band

The total · 53

The pace number is 52.8, 0.3 pts under the market's 53.1; the model says 52.4, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 59°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -16.5. The market has moved 1.6 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +17.0.

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $22 available; Oregon State Beavers ML, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.4 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-369
Sagarin	-9.0	-308
Massey	-9.0	-306
Market (20 books)	-16.0	-673

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +16.0	-105	-115	+2.3%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+610	+496	priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-115	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.4 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at Vanderbilt

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Vanderbilt +9.5

should be Vanderbilt +7.5 · getting 2 pts at Kalshi · was +10.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Vanderbilt +9.5: all 3 ratings our side, 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Ole Miss by 9.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 54.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 45.5 pts our side

Massey

Ole Miss by 72.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 7.51.8 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

Model number

53.30.7 pts under the market

Pace number

55.41.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

639 pts over the market

Massey

57.53.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.4, 0.6 pts over the market's 54.8; the model says 53.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -112	54 -105	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -103 49¢	55.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 +100	55 -101	+302	-385

All 23 books

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -112	54 -105	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -103 49¢	55.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+9 -112	55 -108	+285	-375
BetAnything	+9.5 -105	54.5 -110	+280	-350
BetMGM	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -112	54 -105	+280	-350
betPARX	+9 -112	55 -108	+285	-375
BetRivers	+9 -113	55 -109	+285	-385
BetUS	+9.5 -110	54 -105	+280	-350
Bovada	+10 -115	54.5 -110	+295	-390
Caesars	+9.5 -112	54.5 -109	+285	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -108	54.5 -106	+287	-345
DraftKings	+9.5 -108	54.5 -108	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	54.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -105	54.5 -114	+285	-365
Fliff	+8.5 -105	54.5 -120	+280	-375
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	54.5 -115	+275	-375
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+275	-360
Pinnacle	+9.5 +100	55 -101	+302	-385
Polymarket	+10.5	53.5 -117	—	-355
ReBet	+10 -116	—	+285	-380
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	53.5 -120	+280	-360

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel or Fanatics +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (1.5%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -108 (0.6%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars or TOM +9.5 at -112 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · 23¢ on the app (+300 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 25, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): DraftKings Predictions 23¢ on the app (+300 all-in) (1.2%) · Kalshi 24¢ (0.9%) · Fanatics +290 (0.5%) · FanDuel or Caesars +285 (0.2%) · DraftKings +280 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 55

The pace number is 55.4, 0.6 pts over the market's 54.8; the model says 53.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +9.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 1.3 toward Vanderbilt, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +10.0 or better. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5, only $48 available; Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.

Polymarket still has Vanderbilt +10.5 while Pinnacle is at Ole Miss by 9.5.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 7.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game
FPI	+5.0	+189
Sagarin	+4.0	+171
Massey	+7.0	+245
Market (19 books)	+9.5	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	57.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5	-103	-110	+1.7%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+300	+282	priced at 25 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-105	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC State

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

NC State +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at Kalshi · was +2

A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore NC State →

Market

Wake Forest by 3.5TOM, -125

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game

FPI

Wake Forest by 4.51.2 pts against us

Sagarin

a pick'em3.7 pts our side

Massey

NC State by 1.54.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Wake Forest by 2.50.8 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean NC State. FPI at Wake Forest by 4.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM

Model number

57.80.7 pts under the market

Pace number

56.42.1 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.92.4 pts over the market

Massey

59.10.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.4, 2.4 pts under the market's 58.8; the model says 57.8, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3.5 -125	58.5 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	56.5 -126 54¢	+146 39¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -113	59 +102	+145	-168

All 24 books

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3.5 -125	58.5 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	56.5 -126 54¢	+146 39¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3 -104	58.5 -112	+145	-177
BetAnything	+3 -110	58.5 -110	+145	-165
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	58.5 -110	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -125	58.5 -110	+145	-165
betPARX	+3 -104	58.5 -112	+145	-177
BetRivers	+3.5 -120	58.5 -113	+143	-180
BetUS	+3.5 -120	58.5 -105	+142	-165
Bovada	+3.5 -115	58.5 -105	+145	-170
Caesars	+3.5 -118	58.5 -109	+142	-170
Courtside	+3.5 -128	58.5 -108	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3 -105	58.5 -110	+140	-166
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -105	58.5 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	58.5 -105	+130	-156
Fliff	+3.5 -125	58.5 -115	+135	-175
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -120	58.5 -110	+145	-175
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -115	58.5 -108	+145	-165
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	58.5 -110	+132	-163
Pinnacle	+3.5 -113	59 +102	+145	-168
Polymarket	+3.5	57.5 -108	+150	-156
ReBet	+3 -109	58.5 -111	+132	-163
theScore Bet	+3.5 -125	58.5 -105	+150	-175

Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State +3.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (NC State): Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (3.2%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (2.4%) · Caesars +3.5 at -118 (1.8%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (1.3%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +3 at -105 (1.3%).

A Little Nasty

NC State to win · +146 (39¢) at Kalshi

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: NC State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (NC State to win): Kalshi or BetMGM +146 (3.4%) · Caesars +142 (2.8%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +140 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (2.1%) · TOM +135 (1.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

The total · 59

The pace number is 56.4, 2.4 pts under the market's 58.8; the model says 57.8, 0.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Kalshi has the total at 56.5 while Pinnacle is at 59. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game
FPI	+4.5	+181
Sagarin	PK	-100
Massey	-1.5	-110
Market (20 books)	+3.5	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	59.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	+146	+127	+3.4%
Spread	NC State Wolfpack +3.5	-112	-127	+3.2%
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.7.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 4.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at Ohio

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Ohio -2Moved our way · 1.5 pts

should be Ohio -3 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was -3.5

▲A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says Ohio by 2, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 2TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game

FPI

Ohio by 52.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Ohio by 2on the market

Massey

Ohio by 7.55.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio by 31.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

Model number

46.80.8 pts over the market

Pace number

48.12.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

43.12.9 pts under the market

Massey

47.71.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.1, 2 pts over the market's 46.1; the model says 46.8, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-2 -110	46 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	—
Pinnacle	-2.5 -101	46 -111	-122	+106

All 24 books

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-2 -110	46 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	—
Bally Bet	-2 -113	46.5 -110	-132	+107
BetAnything	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	46.5 -110	-135	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2 -110	46 -110	-135	+115
betPARX	-2 -113	46.5 -110	-132	+107
BetRivers	-2 -114	46.5 -112	-132	+107
BetUS	-2 -105	46 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2 -110	46 -115	-125	+105
Caesars	-2 -109	46 -110	-137	+116
Courtside	-1.5 -115	46.5 -106	-127	+112
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	46.5 -108	-130	+110
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	45.5 -114	-130	+108
Fliff	-2.5 -115	45.5 -125	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -105	46.5 -110	-130	+105
LowVig.ag	-2 -106	46 -108	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-132	+108
Pinnacle	-2.5 -101	46 -111	-122	+106
Polymarket	-1.5	45.5 -113	-122	+117
ReBet	-2 -116	46.5 -114	-132	+108
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	46.5 +100	-130	+110

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -2.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ohio): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (3.2%) · Caesars -2 at -109 (2.9%) · Fanatics or TOM -2 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -115 (2.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · -135 at BetMGM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Ohio to win): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (2.1%) · BetMGM or TOM -135 (1.2%) · Caesars -137 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 48.1, 2 pts over the market's 46.1; the model says 46.8, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio -2.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Ohio. The line went from -3.0 to -2.0.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $178 available; Ohio Bobcats -1.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -129 here against -117 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game
FPI	-5.0	-183
Sagarin	-2.0	-115
Massey	-7.5	-270
Market (20 books)	-2.0	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -2.0	-110	-123	+2.7%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-135	-142	+1.2%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus; moneyline -129 here against -117 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at California

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

California +9.5

should be California +8.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +13

A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8.5. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore California →

Market

Virginia Tech by 9.5TOM, +102

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 8.50.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 5.54.1 pts our side

Massey

Virginia Tech by 45.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 8.50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean California. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

Model number

53.80.8 pts over the market

Pace number

55.42.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.83.2 pts under the market

Massey

552 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.4, 2.3 pts over the market's 53.1; the model says 53.8, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9.5 +102	53 -110	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5	53.5 -103 49¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+10 -104	53 -110	+307	-392

All 24 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9.5 +102	53 -110	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5	53.5 -103 49¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+10 -110	53.5 -110	+295	-385
BetAnything	+10 -110	53 -110	+292	-370
BetMGM	+10 -110	53.5 -105	+300	-375
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 +102	53 -110	+296	-370
betPARX	+10 -110	53.5 -110	+295	-385
BetRivers	+10 -112	53.5 -112	+295	-400
BetUS	+10 -110	53 -110	+295	-370
Bovada	+10 -105	53 -110	+300	-400
Caesars	+10 -110	53 -110	+280	-360
Courtside	+10 -108	53.5 -106	+303	-364
DraftKings	+10 -110	53.5 -108	+295	-375
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 47¢ +104 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+10 -110	53.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -105	53.5 -110	+285	-365
Fliff	+10.5 -125	53.5 -115	+295	-395
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 +100	53.5 -110	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+9.5 +106	53 -108	+296	-370
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	53 -110	+301	-403
Pinnacle	+10 -104	53 -110	+307	-392
Polymarket	+10.5 -117	53.5 +100	+317	-335
ReBet	+10 -116	52.5 -114	+310	-410
theScore Bet	+9.5 +100	52.5 -115	+270	-340

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +9.5 · +102 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): TOM +9.5 at +102 (1.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars +10 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

California to win · +300 at BetMGM

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (California to win): BetMGM +300 (-0.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +296 (-0.4%) · Fanatics +290 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +285 (24¢ on the app) (-1.1%) · Caesars or TOM +280 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 53

The pace number is 55.4, 2.3 pts over the market's 53.1; the model says 53.8, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.5 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 59°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears +9.5, only $480 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +351 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game
FPI	+8.5	+302
Sagarin	+5.5	+192
Massey	+4.0	+172
Market (20 books)	+9.5	+293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +9.5	+102	-103	+1.3%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+300	+303	-0.2%
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.6.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +351 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at Massachusetts

CFB tomorrow 1:00pm

Miami (OH) to win

our data says 65 in 100 · -170

▲A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 4, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 5. At -170 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Miami (OH) by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game

FPI

a pick'em4 pts against us

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 62.1 pts our side

Massey

Miami (OH) by 12.58.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 50.9 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Miami (OH). FPI at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Miami (OH) is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

Model number

43.71.8 pts under the market

Pace number

52.57 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.74.2 pts over the market

Massey

50.24.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.5, 7.5 pts over the market's 45; the model says 43.7, 1.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+4 -110	45.5 -105	+155	-185
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -116 52¢	+152 38¢	—
Pinnacle	+4.5 -111	45 -103	+159	-185

All 24 books

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+4 -110	45.5 -105	+155	-185
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -116 52¢	+152 38¢	—
Bally Bet	+4 -113	45.5 -106	+140	-177
BetAnything	+4.5 -110	45 -110	+160	-185
BetMGM	—	45.5 -110	+154	-190
BetOnline.ag	+4 -110	45.5 -105	+161	-185
betPARX	+4 -113	45.5 -106	+140	-177
BetRivers	+4 -114	45.5 -107	+140	-177
BetUS	+4.5 -110	45 -110	+159	-185
Bovada	+4 -105	44.5 -115	+160	-185
Caesars	+4.5 -110	44.5 -105	+170	-210
Courtside	+4.5 -112	44.5 -108	+163	-188
DraftKings	+4.5 -112	44.5 -110	+160	-192
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+4.5 -115	45 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+4.5 -115	45.5 -105	+158	-192
Fliff	+3.5 -110	45.5 -110	+150	-190
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -105	44.5 -115	+140	-175
LowVig.ag	+4 -106	45.5 -103	+161	-185
MyBookie.ag	—	44.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+4.5 -111	45 -103	+159	-185
Polymarket	+4.5 -104	45.5 +113	+163	—
ReBet	+3.5 -111	44.5 -116	+157	-195
theScore Bet	+4.5 -115	44.5 +100	+160	-190

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -3.5 · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.3%) · TOM -4 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -4.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -4.5 at -107 (-1.1%) · Caesars -4.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Miami (OH) to win · 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (1.8%) · TOM -185 (-0.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -190 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -192 (-1.0%) · Caesars -210 (-3.0%).

Not Nasty

The total · 45

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) to win · 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Miami (OH). The line went from +3.5 to +4.0.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Miami (OH), which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $339 available; Under 45.5, only $54 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.0 consensus.

DraftKings Predictions still has Miami (OH) -3.5 while Pinnacle is at Miami (OH) by 4.5.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	+6.0	+205
Massey	+12.5	+421
Market (20 books)	+4.0	+162

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Miami (OH) RedHawks ML	-170	-184	+1.8%
Spread	Miami (OH) RedHawks -3.5	-108	-114	+1.3%
Total	Over 45.5	-105	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Miami (OH) RedHawks since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 4.1.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.0 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Pittsburgh to win

our data says 65 in 100 · -175

▼A Little Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Pittsburgh by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 4.5. At -175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

Pittsburgh by 95.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 8.55.1 pts our side

Massey

Pittsburgh by 95.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Pittsburgh by 4.51.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

Model number

45.31.7 pts under the market

Pace number

48.91.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

41.35.7 pts under the market

Massey

48.81.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.9, 1.9 pts over the market's 47; the model says 45.3, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -114	47 -107	-186	+159

All 24 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -108	47 -108	-177	+140
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 -108	47 -108	-177	+140
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	47 -109	-177	+140
BetUS	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-4 -110	47 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -112	47 -112	-179	+151
Courtside	-3.5 -112	46.5 -121	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	47.5 -102	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 47¢ +104 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	47 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -118	47.5 -106	-194	+160
Fliff	-3.5 -120	46.5 -125	-190	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-175	+140
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -111	47 -108	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-200	+161
Pinnacle	-3.5 -114	47 -107	-186	+159
Polymarket	-3.5 -108	47.5 +104	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -114	47 -114	-200	+161
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	47.5 +100	-185	+155

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -3.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): BetMGM -3.5 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -3.5 at -112 (0.2%) · TOM or Kalshi -3.5 at -115 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -4 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Pittsburgh to win · -175 at BetMGM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): BetMGM or TOM -175 (0.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics -179 (0.4%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings -185 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -194 (64¢ on the app) (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

The total · 47

The pace number is 48.9, 1.9 pts over the market's 47; the model says 45.3, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -175 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Pittsburgh.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	-9.0	-309
Sagarin	-8.5	-303
Massey	-9.0	-309
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	-175	-182	+0.9%
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5	-110	-113	+0.6%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at Oregon

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Oregon -10Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Oregon -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -12.5

A Little Nasty · OregonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Oregon. Market says Oregon by 10, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 11.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 10TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

Oregon by 10on the market

FPI

Oregon by 143.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon by 132.9 pts our side

Massey

Oregon by 155.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon by 11.51.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Oregon. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Oregon's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

Model number

52.55 pts under the market

Pace number

58.81.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

63.86.3 pts over the market

Massey

59.92.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 58.8, 0.5 pts over the market's 58.3; the model says 52.5, 5.8 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10 -112	57.5 -115	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 +100	58.5 -103	-421	+325

All 24 books

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10 -112	57.5 -115	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -113	58 -113	-420	+320
BetAnything	-10 -110	58 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-10.5 -105	58.5 -105	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-10 -112	57.5 -115	-400	+316
betPARX	-10.5 -113	58 -113	-420	+320
BetRivers	-11 -109	58 -114	-435	+320
BetUS	-10 -115	58 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-10.5 -105	58 -115	-435	+325
Caesars	-10.5 -108	57.5 -117	-440	+330
Courtside	-10.5 -108	58.5 -103	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -108	58.5 -105	-410	+320
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -105	58.5 -105	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -114	57.5 -115	-450	+340
Fliff	-10.5 -110	57.5 -125	-440	+320
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	58.5 -105	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-10 -108	57.5 -114	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	58 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-10.5 +100	58.5 -103	-421	+325
Polymarket	-10.5 +100	58.5 +108	-400	—
ReBet	-11 -109	58.5 -111	-420	+310
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	58.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -10.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oregon): TOM -10 at -112 (0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -10.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars -10.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -114 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -400 at TOM

We make it 80 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 80 cents fair, a play under 76. Where, best first (Oregon to win): TOM or Kalshi -400 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -410 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -425 (-1.3%) · Caesars -440 (-1.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -450 (80¢ on the app) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 58.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon -10.0 · -112 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 53°F.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oregon, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins +10.5, only $48 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-339
FPI	-14.0	-477
Sagarin	-13.0	-428
Massey	-15.0	-549
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -10.0	-112	-116	+0.8%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-400	-392	-0.3%
Total	Over 57.5	-115	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus; total 57.5 here against 58.3 consensus.

Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East Carolina

CFB tomorrow 12:00pm

East Carolina -9.5

should be East Carolina -10.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore East Carolina →

Market

East Carolina by 10TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game

FPI

East Carolina by 111.2 pts our side

Sagarin

East Carolina by 8.51.3 pts against us

Massey

East Carolina by 155 pts our side

Nasty Number

East Carolina by 10.50.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean East Carolina. Sagarin at East Carolina by 8.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but East Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

Model number

47.10.6 pts over the market

Pace number

47.71.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

48.52 pts over the market

Massey

47.30.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 47.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 47.1, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-380	+290
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	48.5 +109 46¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -102	46.5 -110	-382	+300

All 24 books

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-380	+290
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	48.5 +109 46¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-10 -110	46.5 -118	-420	+310
BetAnything	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-375	+297
BetMGM	-10 -110	47.5 -105	-375	+290
BetOnline.ag	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-380	+303
betPARX	-10 -110	46.5 -118	-420	+310
BetRivers	-10 -113	46.5 -121	-420	+310
BetUS	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-380	+305
Bovada	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	-390	+295
Caesars	-10 -109	46.5 -114	-380	+295
Courtside	-10 -108	46.5 -113	-369	+308
DraftKings	-10 -110	46.5 -115	-380	+300
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 46¢ +108 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	46.5 -115	-365	+290
Fliff	-10.5 -105	46.5 -125	-395	+295
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -120	46.5 -120	-425	+300
LowVig.ag	-10 -106	46.5 -108	-380	+303
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-408	+303
Pinnacle	-10 -102	46.5 -110	-382	+300
Polymarket	-8.5 -113	47.5	-355	—
ReBet	-10 -114	46.5 -116	-429	+320
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	46.5 -110	-400	+300

Marked: best for East Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina -9.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (East Carolina): FanDuel -9.5 at -110 (1.2%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -9.5 at -115 (0.1%) · Caesars -10 at -109 (-0.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -10 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · -380 at DraftKings

We make it 78 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 78 cents fair, a play under 74. Where, best first (East Carolina to win): FanDuel -365 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -375 (-0.5%) · DraftKings, Caesars, TOM or Kalshi -380 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 78¢ on the app (-401 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46.5

The pace number is 47.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 47.1, 0.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is East Carolina -9.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $48 available; Rice Owls ML, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onEast Carolina by 10.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game
FPI	-11.0	-387
Sagarin	-8.5	-304
Massey	-15.0	-544
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-364

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -9.5	-110	-115	+1.2%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-380	-364	-0.7%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia Southern

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Under 52

weather: 13 mph wind and 78% chance of rain, worth about 2 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

James Madison by 7.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

James Madison by 10

Sagarin

James Madison by 9

Massey

James Madison by 14.5

Nasty Number

James Madison by 80.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

Model number

54.52.5 pts over the market

Pace number

54.12.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

50.11.9 pts under the market

Massey

56.44.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.1, 2.8 pts over the market's 51.3; the model says 54.5, 3.2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -110	52 -105	+235	-310
Kalshi	+7.5 -112 51¢	52.5 +105 47¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -115	51 -110	+253	-312

All 24 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -110	52 -105	+235	-310
Kalshi	+7.5 -112 51¢	52.5 +105 47¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-295
BetAnything	+7.5 -115	52 -110	+240	-300
BetMGM	+7.5 -110	51.5 -115	+250	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -110	52 -105	+252	-310
betPARX	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-295
BetRivers	+7.5 -117	51.5 -112	+230	-295
BetUS	+7.5 -110	52 -105	+255	-310
Bovada	+7.5 -120	51 -110	+255	-310
Caesars	+7.5 -113	51.5 -108	+250	-320
Courtside	+7.5 -115	51.5 -108	+256	-302
DraftKings	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+250	-310
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in
Fanatics	+7.5 -115	51.5 -105	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -115	51.5 -114	+230	-285
Fliff	+7.5 -120	51.5 -120	+235	-310
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-300
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -111	52 -103	+252	-310
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	51.5 -110	+244	-319
Pinnacle	+7.5 -115	51 -110	+253	-312
Polymarket	+7.5 -113	51.5	—	-285
ReBet	+7.5 -116	51.5 -114	+242	-310
theScore Bet	+7.5 -120	51.5 +100	+250	-300

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -7.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel -7.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · Caesars or Kalshi -7.5 at -107 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.0%) · BetMGM or TOM -7.5 at -110 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -285 at FanDuel

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (James Madison to win): FanDuel -285 (0.2%) · BetMGM -300 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -310 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -317 (74¢ on the app) (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

The total · 51.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 77°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern).

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $4 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +246 here against +283 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	+10.0	+327
Sagarin	+9.0	+308
Massey	+14.5	+527
Market (20 books)	+7.5	+246

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	51.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-285	-288	+0.2%
Spread	James Madison Dukes -7.5	-105	-104	-0.2%
Total	Under 52.0	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +283 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEP

CFB tomorrow 6:00pm

UTEP +9

should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Nevada by 9TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game

FPI

Nevada by 10.51.7 pts against us

Sagarin

Nevada by 5.53.4 pts our side

Massey

Nevada by 6.52.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Nevada by 8.50.4 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean UTEP. FPI at Nevada by 10.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UTEP's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

Model number

49.6on the market

Pace number

544.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.80.3 pts over the market

Massey

53.43.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 54, 4.3 pts over the market's 49.7; the model says 49.6, 0.2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9 -110	49.5 -105	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	50.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -104	50 +101	+293	-372

All 24 books

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9 -110	49.5 -105	+275	-350
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	50.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+10 -112	49.5 -109	+300	-420
BetAnything	+9.5 -110	49.5 -105	+297	-375
BetMGM	+10 -110	49.5 -110	+300	-400
BetOnline.ag	+9 -110	49.5 -105	+280	-350
betPARX	+10 -112	49.5 -109	+300	-420
BetRivers	+10 -113	49.5 -110	+300	-420
BetUS	+9.5 -110	49 -110	+280	-350
Bovada	+9.5 -105	49.5 -110	+290	-380
Caesars	+9.5 -107	49.5 -110	+295	-380
Courtside	+9.5 -105	49.5 -103	+303	-364
DraftKings	+9.5 -105	49.5 -105	+295	-375
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 53¢ -122 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	49.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -110	49.5 -110	+285	-365
Fliff	+9.5 -110	49.5 -115	+285	-385
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 +100	49.5 -110	+300	-425
LowVig.ag	+9 -106	49.5 -103	+280	-350
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	49 -110	+301	-403
Pinnacle	+9.5 -104	50 +101	+293	-372
Polymarket	+8.5 +108	49.5 +100	—	-335
ReBet	+9.5 -105	48.5 -119	+310	-410
theScore Bet	+9.5 -105	49.5 -105	+270	-340

Marked: best for UTEP, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTEP +10.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UTEP): BetMGM +10 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +9.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +9.5 at -107 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · TOM +9 at -110 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

UTEP to win · +300 at BetMGM

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (UTEP to win): BetMGM +300 (-0.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars +296 (-0.5%) · Fanatics +290 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +285 (24¢ on the app) (-1.2%) · TOM +275 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 49.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $447 available; UTEP Miners ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +343 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game
FPI	+10.5	+372
Sagarin	+5.5	+195
Massey	+6.5	+219
Market (20 books)	+9.0	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTEP Miners +10.0	-110	-111	+0.3%
Moneyline	UTEP Miners ML	+300	+303	-0.2%
Total	Over 49.5	-105	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.5 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +343 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at Nebraska

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Nebraska +7.5

should be Nebraska +7.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Indiana by 7.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game

FPI

Indiana by 61.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Indiana by 6.51 pts our side

Massey

Indiana by 11.53.9 pts against us

Nasty Number

Indiana by 7.50.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Nebraska. Massey at Indiana by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Nebraska is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

51.32.8 pts over the market

Pace number

53.75.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

54.35.8 pts over the market

Massey

52.13.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.7, 5.5 pts over the market's 48.2; the model says 51.3, 3.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7.5 -105	48.5 -103	+245	-320
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -103 49¢	+266 26¢	-306 74¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -102	48.5 -101	+271	-338

All 24 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7.5 -105	48.5 -103	+245	-320
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -103 49¢	+266 26¢	-306 74¢
Bally Bet	+8 -113	48 -109	+250	-315
BetAnything	+7.5 -105	48 -110	+255	-325
BetMGM	+7.5 -105	47.5 -115	+250	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -105	48 -103	+260	-320
betPARX	+8 -113	48 -109	+250	-315
BetRivers	+8 -114	48 -110	+250	-335
BetUS	+7.5 -110	48 -110	+260	-320
Bovada	+8 -110	48 -110	+270	-340
Caesars	+7.5 -108	48 -107	+250	-320
Courtside	+7.5 -105	47.5 -113	+267	-316
DraftKings	+7.5 -105	47.5 -115	+260	-325
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	75¢ -335 all-in
Fanatics	+8 -110	48 -110	+260	-330
FanDuel	+7.5 -110	48.5 -105	+245	-310
Fliff	+7.5 -110	47.5 -125	+250	-330
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -105	47.5 -115	+250	-325
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -101	48 -101	+260	-320
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	48.5 -110	+265	-350
Pinnacle	+7.5 -102	48.5 -101	+271	-338
Polymarket	+8.5	47.5 -113	—	-300
ReBet	+8 -111	48.5 -111	+265	-350
theScore Bet	+8.5 -115	47.5 -110	+270	-340

Marked: best for Nebraska, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska +7.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Nebraska): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +7.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi or Caesars +7.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.5%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -110 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Nebraska to win · +266 (26¢) at Kalshi

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): Kalshi 26¢ (0.5%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or DraftKings Predictions +260 (26¢ on the app) (0.0%) · BetMGM or Caesars +250 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or TOM +245 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward Nebraska, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers +8.5, only $125 available; Nebraska Cornhuskers ML, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +256 here against +304 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game
FPI	+6.0	+200
Sagarin	+6.5	+213
Massey	+11.5	+392
Market (20 books)	+7.5	+256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Nebraska Cornhuskers ML	+266	+260	+0.5%
Spread	Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5	-105	-106	+0.3%
Total	Over 48.5	-103	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus; moneyline +256 here against +304 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno State

CFB tomorrow 9:30pm

Fresno State +6.5

should be Fresno State +6.5 at TOM · was +8

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Boise State by 6.5TOM, +105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game

FPI

Boise State by 70.6 pts against us

Sagarin

Boise State by 5.50.8 pts our side

Massey

Boise State by 51.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Boise State by 6.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Fresno State. FPI at Boise State by 7 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

480.5 pts under the market

Pace number

49.91.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

48.90.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.9, 1.4 pts over the market's 48.5; the model says 48, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6.5 +105	48.5 -110	+210	-270
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +102	48.5 -104	+219	-265

All 24 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6.5 +105	48.5 -110	+210	-270
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -106	48.5 -110	+195	-250
BetAnything	+6.5 -105	48.5 -110	+215	-260
BetMGM	+6.5 -105	48.5 -110	+220	-275
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	48.5 -110	+222	-270
betPARX	+6.5 -106	48.5 -110	+195	-250
BetRivers	+6.5 -108	48.5 -113	+195	-250
BetUS	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+205	-245
Bovada	+7 -120	48 -115	+220	-270
Caesars	+7 -113	48.5 -110	+215	-265
Courtside	+7 -113	48.5 -108	+215	-252
DraftKings	+7 -115	48.5 -110	+210	-258
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	48.5 -110	+215	-265
FanDuel	+6.5 +100	48.5 -108	+220	-275
Fliff	+6.5 -110	48.5 -115	+210	-275
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	48.5 -110	+195	-250
LowVig.ag	+7 -106	48.5 -108	+222	-270
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+224	-285
Pinnacle	+6.5 +102	48.5 -104	+219	-265
Polymarket	+6.5 +108	47.5 -117	+233	-245
ReBet	+6.5 -103	48.5 -114	+224	-285
theScore Bet	+6.5 +100	48.5 -110	+220	-270

Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fresno State +6.5 · +105 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): TOM +6.5 at +105 (1.4%) · Caesars +7 at -113 (0.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +6.5 at +101 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.1%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +7 at -115 (0.1%).

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · +220 at FanDuel

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +220 (0.9%) · Kalshi 30¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +215 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (0.1%) · DraftKings or TOM +210 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48.5

The pace number is 49.9, 1.4 pts over the market's 48.5; the model says 48, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +6.5 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.6 toward Fresno State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline +219 here against +243 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game
FPI	+7.0	+251
Sagarin	+5.5	+196
Massey	+5.0	+184
Market (20 books)	+6.5	+219

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5	+105	-101	+1.4%
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	+220	+211	+0.9%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: moneyline +219 here against +243 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling Green

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Bowling Green to win

our data says 76 in 100 · -290

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 9, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

Bowling Green by 9TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game

FPI

Bowling Green by 10.5

Sagarin

Bowling Green by 9

Massey

Bowling Green by 10

Nasty Number

Bowling Green by 90.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Bowling Green by 7 to Bowling Green by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

44.30.3 pts over the market

Pace number

47.63.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

404 pts under the market

Massey

44.80.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 47.6, 4 pts over the market's 43.6; the model says 44.3, 0.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-9 -110	44 -105	-320	+245
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-290 73¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-9 -106	43.5 -112	-316	+256

All 24 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-9 -110	44 -105	-320	+245
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-290 73¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -108	43.5 -113	-335	+255
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	44 -110	-325	+255
BetMGM	-8.5 -110	43.5 -115	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-9 -110	44 -105	-320	+260
betPARX	-8.5 -108	43.5 -113	-335	+255
BetRivers	-8.5 -109	43.5 -115	-335	+255
BetUS	-8.5 -110	43.5 -110	-320	+260
Bovada	-9 -110	43.5 -115	-320	+260
Caesars	-8.5 -105	43.5 -106	-320	+250
Courtside	-8.5 -108	43.5 -110	-316	+267
DraftKings	-8.5 -108	43.5 -112	-325	+260
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics	-8.5 -110	43.5 -115	-330	+260
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	43.5 -106	-345	+270
Fliff	-8.5 -115	43.5 -120	-340	+255
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	43.5 -110	-325	+260
LowVig.ag	-9 -106	44 -103	-320	+260
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	44 -110	-318	+244
Pinnacle	-9 -106	43.5 -112	-316	+256
Polymarket	-8.5	43.5 -104	-285	+270
ReBet	-8.5 -114	44 -111	-330	+255
theScore Bet	-8.5 -110	43.5 +100	-320	+260

Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green -8.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bowling Green): Caesars -8.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.4%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM -8.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 53¢ (-2.2%) · TOM -9 at -110 (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Bowling Green to win): Kalshi 73¢ (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or TOM -317 (74¢ on the app) (-0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -325 (-1.0%) · Fanatics -330 (-1.2%) · FanDuel -345 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Bowling Green).

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -8.5, only $68 available; Under 43.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBowling Green by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game
FPI	-10.5	-372
Sagarin	-9.0	-310
Massey	-10.0	-329
Market (20 books)	-9.0	-306

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	-290	-308	+1.2%
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons -8.5	-105	-102	-0.7%
Total	Under 44.0	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at Oklahoma

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm · neutral

Texas -7

should be Texas -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 7, the Nasty Number says Texas by 7.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Texas by 7TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Texas by 8.51.7 pts our side

FPI

Texas by 146.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Texas by 7on the market

Massey

Texas by 7.50.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texas by 7.50.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Texas. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Texas's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39TOM

Model number

37.81.2 pts under the market

Pace number

44.55.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

35.83.2 pts under the market

Massey

40.61.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 44.5, 5.4 pts over the market's 39; the model says 37.8, 1.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 41 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+7 -105	39 -108	+240	-300
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -113	39 -109	+249	-307

All 23 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+7 -105	39 -108	+240	-300
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -110	39 -108	+245	-315
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	39 -110	+255	-325
BetMGM	+7.5 -115	39.5 -105	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7 -105	39 -108	+245	-300
betPARX	+7.5 -110	39 -108	+245	-315
BetRivers	+7.5 -112	39 -109	+245	-335
BetUS	+7 -105	39 -110	+250	-300
Bovada	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+255	-310
Caesars	+7.5 -114	39 -110	+255	-320
Courtside	+7.5 -115	38.5 -117	+256	-302
DraftKings	+7.5 -115	39.5 -105	+250	-310
Fanatics	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-315
Fliff	+7.5 -120	38.5 -125	+250	-325
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -110	38.5 -115	+250	-325
LowVig.ag	+7 -101	39 -106	+245	-300
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	39.5 -110	+261	-342
Pinnacle	+7.5 -113	39 -109	+249	-307
Polymarket	+7.5 -108	38.5 -113	+285	-300
ReBet	+8 -114	39.5 -114	+260	-340
theScore Bet	+7.5 -115	39.5 -110	+250	-300

Marked: best for Texas, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -7.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas): TOM -7 at -115 (0.2%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, DraftKings or Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Caesars -7.5 at -106 (-1.2%).

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -300 at TOM

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Texas to win): TOM -300 (-1.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -310 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -315 (-2.2%) · Caesars or Kalshi -320 (-2.5%) · BetMGM -325 (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

The total · 39

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Texas, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +251 here against +286 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.5	+304
FPI	+14.0	+462
Sagarin	+7.0	+233
Massey	+7.5	+267
Market (20 books)	+7.0	+251

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	38.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Longhorns -7.0	-115	-116	+0.2%
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-300	-280	-1.3%
Total	Under 39.0	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +286 consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West Virginia

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Arizona -3

should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was -3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Arizona by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game

FPI

Arizona by 40.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Arizona by 1.52 pts against us

Massey

Arizona by 62.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 3.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Arizona. Sagarin at Arizona by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arizona is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

61.5TOM

Model number

62.10.6 pts over the market

Pace number

55.56 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.91.6 pts under the market

Massey

58.43.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 55.5, 5.4 pts under the market's 60.9; the model says 62.1, 1.2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	61.5 -105	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	61.5	+140 40¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -106	61 -104	+155	-181

All 24 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	61.5 -105	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	61.5	+140 40¢	-161 60¢
Bally Bet	+3 -105	60.5 -113	+132	-165
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	61.5 -110	+155	-180
BetMGM	+3 -105	60.5 -115	+135	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	61.5 -105	+149	-170
betPARX	+3 -105	60.5 -113	+132	-165
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	60.5 -114	+130	-165
BetUS	+3.5 -110	61.5 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+3.5 -110	60.5 -115	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -114	60.5 -114	+141	-170
Courtside	+3.5 -112	60.5 -113	+148	-171
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	60.5 -115	+145	-175
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	61 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -114	60.5 -110	+132	-160
Fliff	+3.5 -125	60.5 -120	+135	-170
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	+130	-165
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -101	61.5 -103	+149	-170
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	61 -110	+146	-181
Pinnacle	+3.5 -106	61 -104	+155	-181
Polymarket	+3.5 -108	61.5	+150	—
ReBet	+3.5 -114	61 -114	+146	-181
theScore Bet	+3.5 -105	61.5 -105	+155	-185

Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -3.0 · -115 at BetMGM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Arizona): BetMGM -3 at -115 (0.6%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 48¢ (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics -3.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.7%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · Caesars -3.5 at -107 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arizona to win · -160 at FanDuel

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Arizona to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi -160 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM -170 (61¢ on the app) (-1.0%) · DraftKings -175 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

The total · 61

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona -3.0 · -115 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $42 available; Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $71 available; Over 61.5, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +146 here against +163 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game
FPI	+4.0	+172
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	+6.0	+201
Market (20 books)	+3.5	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.5	59.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Wildcats -3.0	-115	-118	+0.6%
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	-160	-163	+0.4%
Total	Under 61.5	-115	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.4.

TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.9 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +163 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at Akron

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Akron +5

should be Akron +4.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 5, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Akron →

Market

Eastern Michigan by 5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game

FPI

Eastern Michigan by 3.51.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Eastern Michigan by 2.52.3 pts our side

Massey

Eastern Michigan by 2.52.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eastern Michigan by 4.50.3 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

Model number

564 pts over the market

Pace number

50.51.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.16.9 pts under the market

Massey

50.71.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 50.5, 1.4 pts under the market's 51.9; the model says 56, 4.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+5 -110	52 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -112 51¢	—	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	52 -103	+178	-210

All 24 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+5 -110	52 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -112 51¢	—	-229 68¢
Bally Bet	+6 -113	51.5 -109	+180	-230
BetAnything	+5.5 -110	52 -110	+175	-215
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	51.5 -115	+180	-220
BetOnline.ag	+5 -110	52 -115	+180	-210
betPARX	+6 -113	51.5 -109	+180	-230
BetRivers	+6 -114	51.5 -112	+180	-230
BetUS	+5.5 -110	52 -115	+180	-210
Bovada	+5.5 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+5.5 -106	52 -108	+187	-225
Courtside	+5.5 -110	51.5 -113	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	51.5 -115	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	52 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	52.5 -104	+172	-210
Fliff	+5.5 -115	51.5 -120	+175	-225
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -105	51.5 -110	+180	-225
LowVig.ag	+5 -106	52 -114	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	52 -110	+182	-230
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	52 -103	+178	-210
Polymarket	+5.5 -104	51.5 -108	—	-203
ReBet	+5.5 -114	51.5 -116	+182	-230
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	52.5 -105	+180	-215

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +5.5 · -106 at Caesars

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Akron): Caesars +5.5 at -106 (0.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +5.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 51¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.5%) · TOM +5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +187 at Caesars

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Akron to win): Caesars +187 (0.7%) · Fanatics +185 (0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +180 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 34¢ on the app (+178 all-in) (-0.5%) · FanDuel +172 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 52

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $355 available; Akron Zips ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +199 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEastern Michigan by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game
FPI	+3.5	+161
Sagarin	+2.5	+128
Massey	+2.5	+119
Market (20 books)	+5.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+187	+181	+0.7%
Spread	Akron Zips +5.5	-106	-106	+0.1%
Total	Under 52.0	-105	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +199 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana Tech

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Louisiana +3

should be Louisiana +3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Louisiana Tech by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game

FPI

Louisiana Tech by 21.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 52 pts against us

Massey

Louisiana Tech by 2.50.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisiana Tech by 30.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Louisiana. Sagarin at Louisiana Tech by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Louisiana is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

45.92.1 pts under the market

Pace number

546 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.54.5 pts over the market

Massey

53.55.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 54, 6 pts over the market's 47.9; the model says 45.9, 2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-3 -115	48 -110	-152	+127
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	48.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -114	48 -108	-157	+136

All 24 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-3 -115	48 -110	-152	+127
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	48.5	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-3 -109	47.5 -105	-152	+123
BetAnything	-3 -110	48 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-3 -115	47.5 -110	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	48 -110	-152	+132
betPARX	-3 -109	47.5 -105	-152	+123
BetRivers	-3 -110	47.5 -106	-152	+123
BetUS	-3 -115	48 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -115	48 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-3 -113	48 -108	-152	+128
Courtside	-3 -113	47.5 -122	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -115	48.5 -102	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	48 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	48.5 -104	-152	+126
Fliff	-3.5 +100	47.5 -120	-160	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	47.5 -110	-150	+125
LowVig.ag	-3 -111	48 -108	-152	+132
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	48 -110	-153	+125
Pinnacle	-3 -114	48 -108	-157	+136
Polymarket	-3.5 +113	47.5 -104	-138	+133
ReBet	-2.5 -133	47.5 -119	-156	+127
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	48.5 +100	-145	+125

Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -105 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.0%) · Caesars +3 at -107 (-0.1%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Louisiana to win · 41¢ on the app (+133 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): DraftKings Predictions 41¢ on the app (+133 all-in) (0.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +130 (-0.2%) · Caesars or TOM +128 (-0.6%) · FanDuel +126 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 43¢ (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.4 away from Louisiana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana Tech by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game
FPI	-2.0	-115
Sagarin	-5.0	-185
Massey	-2.5	-119
Market (20 books)	-3.0	-145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3.0	-105	-107	+0.4%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+133	+131	+0.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas State

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Houston +2.5

should be Houston +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game

FPI

Houston by 0.52.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Houston by 0.52.9 pts our side

Massey

Kansas State by 63.5 pts against us

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 20.6 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Houston. Massey at Kansas State by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Houston's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

53.31.7 pts under the market

Pace number

55.70.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

63.58.5 pts over the market

Massey

57.82.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.7, 0.4 pts over the market's 55.3; the model says 53.3, 2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -110	55.5 -101	-133	+115

All 24 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-137	+112
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -105	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
betPARX	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-137	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-139	+112
BetUS	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-145	+120
Courtside	-2.5 -110	54.5 -122	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	55.5 -102	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	55.5 -106	-137	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	55.5 -105	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	55 -108	-137	+117
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-138	+113
Pinnacle	-2.5 -110	55.5 -101	-133	+115
Polymarket	-2.5 -104	55.5 +104	-127	—
ReBet	-2.5 -116	55 -114	-138	+113
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	54.5 -120	-130	+110

Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +2.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Houston): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Houston to win · +117 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Houston to win): BetMGM or Caesars +120 (1.1%) · TOM +117 (0.4%) · Fanatics +115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +114 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 55.5

The pace number is 55.7, 0.4 pts over the market's 55.3; the model says 53.3, 2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Houston, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	-6.0	-202
Market (20 books)	-2.5	-131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	+117	+115	+0.4%
Spread	Houston Cougars +2.5	-105	-105	+0.0%
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan State

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Michigan State +2.5

should be Michigan State +2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Illinois by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game

FPI

Illinois by 0.52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Illinois by 20.6 pts our side

Massey

Illinois by 3.50.9 pts against us

Nasty Number

Illinois by 2.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Michigan State. Massey at Illinois by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

48.2on the market

Pace number

51.13.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

57.59.5 pts over the market

Massey

48.70.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.1, 2.9 pts over the market's 48.2; the model says 48.2, 0.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	48 -105	+115	-135
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	49.5 +109 46¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +100	48.5 -102	+120	-138

All 24 books

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	48 -105	+115	-135
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	49.5 +109 46¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -104	48 -112	+120	-148
BetAnything	+2.5 +100	48 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	47.5 -115	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	48 -105	+115	-135
betPARX	+2.5 -104	48 -112	+120	-148
BetRivers	+2.5 -105	48 -113	+120	-150
BetUS	+3 -115	48 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+2.5 +100	48 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -107	48 -110	+115	-136
Courtside	+2.5 +100	47.5 -113	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	47.5 -115	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -115	48 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	48.5 -105	+114	-137
Fliff	+2.5 -110	47.5 -125	+115	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	48.5 -105	+120	-145
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +104	48 -103	+115	-135
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+113	-139
Pinnacle	+2.5 +100	48.5 -102	+120	-138
Polymarket	+2.5 +108	47.5 -113	+127	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -111	48 -114	+113	-138
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	48.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +2.5 · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.5%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM +2.5 at +101 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +120 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): DraftKings +120 (0.0%) · Kalshi 44¢ (-0.3%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +114 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

The pace number is 51.1, 2.9 pts over the market's 48.2; the model says 48.2, 0.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 75°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+2.0	+115
Massey	+3.5	+155
Market (20 books)	+2.5	+120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +2.5	+100	-101	+0.2%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+120	+120	+0.0%
Total	Over 48.0	-105	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.2 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at Army

CFB tomorrow 11:00am

Tulane +3.5

should be Tulane +3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Army →

Market

Army by 3.5TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game

FPI

Army by 2.50.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Army by 62.5 pts against us

Massey

Tulane by 14.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Army by 3.50.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Tulane. Sagarin at Army by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

53.15.1 pts over the market

Pace number

47.40.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.50.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.13.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 47.4, 0.6 pts under the market's 48; the model says 53.1, 5.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -114	48 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	48 -109	-175	+151

All 24 books

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -114	48 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
Bally Bet	-4 -114	47.5 -112	-190	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-165	+145
BetMGM	-3.5 -105	48.5 -105	-160	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -114	48 -115	-170	+149
betPARX	-4 -114	47.5 -112	-190	+150
BetRivers	-4 -115	47.5 -114	-190	+150
BetUS	-3.5 -105	48 -110	-170	+146
Bovada	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -107	48 -114	-164	+139
Courtside	-3.5 -108	48.5 -103	-163	+143
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	48.5 -105	-166	+140
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	48.5 -105	-170	+140
Fliff	-3.5 -115	47.5 -125	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -105	47.5 -110	-190	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -110	48 -114	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-185	+150
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	48 -109	-175	+151
Polymarket	-3.5 +100	47.5 -108	-156	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -111	48 -114	-185	+150
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 +100	-175	+150

Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +3.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulane): TOM +3.5 at -106 (0.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (-1.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · +140 at DraftKings

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Tulane to win): Fanatics +145 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, TOM, Kalshi or Caesars +140 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-2.2%) · BetMGM +135 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.9 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Hard Rock Bet still has Tulane +4.5 while Pinnacle is at Army by 3.5.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game
FPI	-2.5	-125
Sagarin	-6.0	-202
Massey	+1.0	+104
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	45.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +3.5	-106	-106	+0.1%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+140	+151	-1.9%
Total	Under 48.0	-105	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at Northwestern

CFB tomorrow 11:30am

Northwestern -35

should be Northwestern -36.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 35.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 35TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game

FPI

Northwestern by 38.5

Sagarin

Northwestern by 37.5

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 36.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

Model number

57.65.1 pts over the market

Pace number

51.70.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.46.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.7, 1 pt under the market's 52.7; the model says 57.6, 4.9 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35 -116	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -103 49¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-36 -106	52.5 -115	—	—

All 23 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35 -116	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -103 49¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-35.5 -110	52.5 -109	—	—
BetAnything	-35 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-35.5 -110	52.5 -105	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35 -116	52.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	-35.5 -110	52.5 -109	—	—
BetRivers	-35.5 -113	52.5 -112	—	—
BetUS	-35 -115	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-36 -110	52.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-35.5 -110	53.5 -109	—	—
Courtside	-35.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -112	53.5 -112	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-35.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	—	4¢ +1567 all-in
Fanatics	-35.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -104	52.5 -115	—	—
Fliff	-35.5 -115	52.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-35.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-35 -112	52.5 -114	—	—
Pinnacle	-36 -106	52.5 -115	—	—
Polymarket	-35.5 -104	—	—	—
ReBet	-35.5 -127	52.5 -110	—	—
theScore Bet	-36.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -35.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): FanDuel -35.5 at -104 (0.2%) · TOM -35 at -116 (-0.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars -35.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -35.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

The total · 52.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Northwestern).

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $175 available; Under 53.5, only $349 available; Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $302 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 36.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game
FPI	-38.5	—
Sagarin	-37.5	—
Massey	rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)	-35.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -35.0	-116	-116	-0.0%
Total	Under 52.5	-105	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.8 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at Florida

CFB tomorrow 11:45am

South Carolina +11

should be South Carolina +10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 11, the Nasty Number says Florida by 10.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 11TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game

FPI

Florida by 8.5

Sagarin

Florida by 8

Massey

Florida by 7.5

Nasty Number

Florida by 10.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Florida by 14 to Florida by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58TOM

Model number

56.31.7 pts under the market

Pace number

59.91.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

61.83.8 pts over the market

Massey

61.13.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 59.9, 1.4 pts over the market's 58.6; the model says 56.3, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 62 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-11 -110	58 -120	-460	+330
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	59.5 +101 48¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-11.5 -102	58.5 -117	-491	+369

All 24 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-11 -110	58 -120	-460	+330
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	59.5 +101 48¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -113	58.5 -108	-500	+370
BetAnything	-11 -110	58.5 -110	-475	+365
BetMGM	-11.5 -105	58.5 -115	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-11 -110	58 -120	-460	+358
betPARX	-11.5 -113	58.5 -108	-500	+370
BetRivers	-11.5 -113	58.5 -109	-500	+350
BetUS	-11 -110	59 -110	-460	+360
Bovada	-11.5 -105	58.5 -115	-490	+355
Caesars	-11 -113	59 -109	-480	+370
Courtside	-11.5 -108	58.5 -113	-454	+371
DraftKings	-10.5 -115	58.5 -115	-470	+360
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 50¢ -108 all-in	60.5 47¢ +104 all-in	82¢ -526 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-11 -110	59 -110	-475	+360
FanDuel	-11.5 -110	58.5 -114	-465	+350
Fliff	-11.5 -110	58.5 -125	-495	+355
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	58.5 -110	-500	+375
LowVig.ag	-11 -106	58 -119	-460	+358
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	59 -110	-459	+345
Pinnacle	-11.5 -102	58.5 -117	-491	+369
Polymarket	-10.5 -104	59.5 +100	-426	+400
ReBet	-11.5 -114	59 -114	-450	+330
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	59.5 -105	-500	+360

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +11.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (0.3%) · Caesars +11 at -107 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.3%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM +11 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · +373 (20¢) at Kalshi

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): Kalshi or Caesars +373 (0.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +360 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (0.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +350 (-0.2%) · TOM +330 (-1.2%).

Off the band

The total · 58.5

The pace number is 59.9, 1.4 pts over the market's 58.6; the model says 56.3, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward South Carolina). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $438 available; Under 59.5, only $93 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Polymarket still has Florida -10.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida by 11.5.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game
FPI	-8.5	-303
Sagarin	-8.0	-283
Massey	-7.5	-278
Market (20 books)	-11.0	-440

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	60.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks +11.0	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	+373	+353	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.0	-120	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus; total 58.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App State

CFB tomorrow 12:00pm

Under 47.5

weather: 18 mph wind and 70% chance of rain, worth about 3.8 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game

FPI

App State by 10

Sagarin

App State by 9

Massey

App State by 3

Nasty Number

App State by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

Model number

461.5 pts under the market

Pace number

52.34.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.10.4 pts under the market

Massey

53.56 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.3, 4.8 pts over the market's 47.5; the model says 46, 1.5 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -121 53¢	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -112	47.5 -112	-382	+300

All 24 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -121 53¢	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -110	47.5 -105	-360	+270
BetAnything	-10 -110	47.5 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-370	+296
betPARX	-9.5 -110	47.5 -105	-360	+270
BetRivers	-9.5 -113	47.5 -107	-360	+270
BetUS	-10 -110	47.5 -110	-370	+295
Bovada	-10 -105	48 -105	-390	+295
Caesars	-10 -110	47.5 -112	-380	+300
Courtside	-10 -106	47.5 -110	-364	+303
DraftKings	-10 -108	47.5 -112	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -115	48 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -115	47.5 -114	-385	+300
Fliff	-9.5 -120	47.5 -120	-390	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -110	47.5 -105	-350	+275
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -111	47.5 -108	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	47.5 -110	-400	+300
Pinnacle	-9.5 -112	47.5 -112	-382	+300
Polymarket	-9.5	47.5 -108	-335	+317
ReBet	-10 -114	47.5 -116	-410	+310
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	47.5 -110	-360	+280

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Old Dominion +9.5 · 49¢ on the app (-105 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Old Dominion): Caesars +10 at -109 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings +10 at -112 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Old Dominion to win · 23¢ on the app (+300 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 25, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Old Dominion to win): DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, Caesars or BetMGM +300 (23¢ on the app) (-0.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +296 (-1.0%) · Fanatics +290 (-1.4%) · TOM +280 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 47.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 54°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $106 available; Under 47.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game
FPI	-10.0	-328
Sagarin	-9.0	-306
Massey	-3.0	-133
Market (20 books)	-9.5	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5	-105	-100	-1.2%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+300	+312	priced at 25 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at Toledo

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Toledo -18.5

should be Toledo -19.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 18.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 18.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 19.5

Sagarin

Toledo by 20.5

Massey

Toledo by 21

Nasty Number

Toledo by 19.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

Model number

55.60.4 pts under the market

Pace number

56.2on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.810.2 pts under the market

Massey

57.31.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.2, 0.8 pts over the market's 55.4; the model says 55.6, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Pinnacle	-18.5 -112	55.5 -104	-1127	+698

All 24 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Bally Bet	-20 -110	54.5 -113	-1667	+850
BetAnything	-19 -110	56 -110	-1300	+750
BetMGM	-19.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1400	+775
BetOnline.ag	-18.5 -110	56 -110	-1200	+754
betPARX	-20 -110	54.5 -113	-1667	+850
BetRivers	-20 -112	54.5 -114	-2000	+850
BetUS	-19 -110	56 -110	-1100	+700
Bovada	-19 -110	55 -115	-1200	+700
Caesars	-18.5 -109	55.5 -105	-1250	+750
Courtside	-18.5 -110	55.5 -108	-1032	+733
DraftKings	-18.5 -112	55.5 -110	-1100	+700
DraftKings Predictions	-18.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	92¢ -1567 all-in	10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics	-19 -110	55.5 -105	-1200	+750
FanDuel	-19.5 -105	55.5 -110	-1450	+810
Fliff	-19.5 -120	55.5 -115	-1495	+785
Hard Rock Bet	-19.5 -115	54.5 -110	-1600	+850
LowVig.ag	-18.5 -106	56 -108	-1200	+754
MyBookie.ag	-19 -110	55.5 -110	-1683	+846
Pinnacle	-18.5 -112	55.5 -104	-1127	+698
Polymarket	-17.5 -117	55.5 +100	-1011	+900
ReBet	—	55.5 -114	-1408	+770
theScore Bet	-19.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1200	+700

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): Caesars -18.5 at -109 (-0.4%) · TOM -18.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi -19.5 at 49¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings -18.5 at -112 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -105 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Toledo to win · -1200 at Fanatics

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -1087 (-2.0%) · Fanatics -1200 (-2.7%) · Caesars -1250 (-3.0%) · BetMGM -1400 (-3.7%) · FanDuel -1450 (-4.0%).

Off the band

The total · 55.5

The pace number is 56.2, 0.8 pts over the market's 55.4; the model says 55.6, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Buffalo).

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.8 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 19.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game
FPI	-19.5	-855
Sagarin	-20.5	-969
Massey	-21.0	-1050
Market (20 books)	-18.5	-1051

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets -18.5	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	-1200	-861	priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bulls since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.8 consensus; total 56.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North Texas

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

North Texas -28.5

should be North Texas -28 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore North Texas →

Market

North Texas by 28.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game

FPI

North Texas by 26

Sagarin

North Texas by 27.5

Massey

North Texas by 26.5

Nasty Number

North Texas by 280.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

Model number

55.71.8 pts under the market

Pace number

61.23.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

635.5 pts over the market

Massey

67.610.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 61.2, 3.2 pts over the market's 58; the model says 55.7, 2.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-28.5 -115	57.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -121 53¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-28.5 -108	58 -111	—	—

All 24 books

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-28.5 -115	57.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -121 53¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Bally Bet	-29 -110	59.5 -104	—	—
BetAnything	-28.5 -110	57.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-28.5 -115	57.5 -115	—	+2200
BetOnline.ag	-28.5 -115	57.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	-29 -110	59.5 -104	—	—
BetRivers	-29 -112	58.5 -118	—	—
BetUS	-28.5 -115	58 -110	—	—
Bovada	-28.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
Caesars	-28.5 -112	57.5 -115	—	+1500
Courtside	-28.5 -110	57.5 -113	—	+1878
DraftKings	-28.5 -112	57.5 -115	—	+1700
DraftKings Predictions	-28.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	—	4¢ +1567 all-in
Fanatics	-28.5 -110	58 -110	—	+2000
FanDuel	-28.5 -106	57.5 -122	—	+2200
Fliff	-29.5 -105	58.5 -110	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-29.5 -105	58.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-28.5 -111	57.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-28.5 -110	58 -110	—	+1455
Pinnacle	-28.5 -108	58 -111	—	—
Polymarket	—	57.5 -113	—	—
ReBet	-28.5 -111	58 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-28.5 -110	57.5 -110	—	+1500

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +28.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): BetMGM or TOM +28.5 at -105 (0.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars +28.5 at -108 (0.2%) · Fanatics +28.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +28.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%) · FanDuel +28.5 at -114 (-1.1%).

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +1937 at Fanatics

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +2243 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +2000 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +1700 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 4¢ on the app (+1567 all-in) (-2.4%) · Caesars +1500 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 58

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green ML, only $37 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Texas by 2830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game
FPI	-26.0	-1973
Sagarin	-27.5	-2294
Massey	-26.5	-2096
Market (20 books)	-28.5	-4385

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	65.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +28.5	-105	-109	+0.9%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+1937	+2652	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-115	-131	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.7.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia Tech

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Georgia Tech +6.5

should be Georgia Tech +6 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Duke by 6.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

Duke by 6.5

FPI

Duke by 7

Sagarin

Duke by 0.5

Massey

Duke by 2

Nasty Number

Duke by 60.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Duke by 7 to Duke by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

44.40.9 pts over the market

Pace number

51.78.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.111.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.611.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.7, 8.2 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 44.4, 0.9 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+6.5 -107	43.5 -120	+200	-250
Kalshi	+6.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -126 54¢	+198 32¢	-239 69¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 -103	43.5 -109	+203	-244

All 24 books

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+6.5 -107	43.5 -120	+200	-250
Kalshi	+6.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -126 54¢	+198 32¢	-239 69¢
Bally Bet	+7 -120	43.5 -113	+210	-265
BetAnything	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+200	-240
BetMGM	+6.5 -105	43.5 -115	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 -107	43.5 -120	+207	-250
betPARX	+7 -120	43.5 -113	+210	-265
BetRivers	+7 -120	43.5 -114	+205	-265
BetUS	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+210	-250
Bovada	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+205	-245
Caesars	+6.5 -105	43.5 -112	+205	-250
Courtside	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+205	-239
DraftKings	+6.5 -105	43.5 -112	+200	-245
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	32¢ +194 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics	+6.5 -105	43.5 -115	+200	-245
FanDuel	+6.5 -114	43.5 -114	+190	-235
Fliff	+6.5 -110	43.5 -120	+195	-255
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+210	-260
LowVig.ag	+6.5 -103	43.5 -110	+207	-250
MyBookie.ag	+6.5 -110	43.5 -110	+212	-270
Pinnacle	+6.5 -103	43.5 -109	+203	-244
Polymarket	+6.5 -104	43.5 -108	+212	-223
ReBet	+6.5 -109	44 -114	+218	-280
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	43.5 -115	+200	-240

Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech +6.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars +6.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · TOM or Kalshi +6.5 at -107 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.9%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -114 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · +200 at Fanatics

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): Caesars +205 (0.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +200 (-0.4%) · Kalshi 32¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 32¢ on the app (+194 all-in) (-1.1%) · FanDuel +190 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 70°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.5	+210
FPI	+7.0	+238
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	+2.0	+117
Market (20 books)	+6.5	+209

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5	-107	-104	-0.6%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+200	+204	-0.4%
Total	Over 43.5	-120	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 8.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western Michigan

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Western Michigan -13.5

should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Western Michigan by 13.5TOM, -118

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

Western Michigan by 19

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 16.5

Massey

Western Michigan by 17

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 14.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

47.23.7 pts over the market

Pace number

46.12.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

412.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.30.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.1, 2.6 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 47.2, 3.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-13.5 -118	43.5 -110	-560	+390
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +101 48¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -103	43.5 -105	-609	+438

All 24 books

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-13.5 -118	43.5 -110	-560	+390
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +101 48¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-14 -106	43.5 -112	-670	+460
BetAnything	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-575	+435
BetMGM	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-600	+425
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -118	43.5 -110	-560	+421
betPARX	-14 -106	43.5 -112	-670	+460
BetRivers	-14 -107	43.5 -113	-715	+460
BetUS	-13.5 -120	43.5 -110	-560	+430
Bovada	-14 -105	43.5 -105	-625	+430
Caesars	-13.5 -117	43.5 -110	-625	+450
Courtside	-14 -106	43.5 -108	-553	+439
DraftKings	-14 -108	43.5 -110	-575	+425
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	17¢ +426 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -114	43.5 -110	-630	+450
Fliff	-13.5 -125	43.5 -115	-650	+440
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-650	+450
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -114	43.5 -108	-560	+421
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-657	+436
Pinnacle	-14 -103	43.5 -105	-609	+438
Polymarket	-13.5 -113	43.5	—	+488
ReBet	-14 -114	43.5 -111	-752	+490
theScore Bet	-13.5 -120	43.5 -110	-700	+450

Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -13.5 · -118 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -13.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings -14 at -108 (0.2%) · Caesars -13.5 at -117 (0.1%) · TOM -13.5 at -118 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -560 at TOM

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): TOM or Kalshi -560 (-0.8%) · DraftKings -575 (-1.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -600 (-1.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel -625 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 85¢ on the app (-670 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $50 available; Western Michigan Broncos ML, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	-19.0	-810
Sagarin	-16.5	-608
Massey	-17.0	-640
Market (20 books)	-13.5	-536

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -13.5	-118	-118	-0.1%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-560	-527	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at Navy

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Navy -1

should be Navy -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 1, the Nasty Number says Navy by 1.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Navy →

Market

Navy by 1TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Navy by 0.5

Massey

Navy by 6.5

Nasty Number

Navy by 1.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 2.5 to Navy by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

47.80.7 pts under the market

Pace number

48.90.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.51 pts over the market

Massey

49.51 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.9, 0.7 pts over the market's 48.1; the model says 47.8, 0.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-1 -117	48.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-121 53¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	48 -110	-125	+109

All 24 books

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-1 -117	48.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-121 53¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -113	47.5 -117	-143	+116
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	48.5 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-1.5 -115	48.5 -110	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-1 -117	48.5 -110	-120	+100
betPARX	-2.5 -113	47.5 -117	-143	+116
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	47.5 -118	-143	+116
BetUS	-1.5 -110	48.5 -110	-120	+100
Bovada	-2 -110	48 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5 -117	48.5 -110	-127	+108
Courtside	-1.5 -115	48.5 -106	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	48.5 -108	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	48 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-2.5 -108	48.5 -110	-130	+108
Fliff	-2.5 -110	48.5 -115	-135	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-145	+115
LowVig.ag	-1 -113	48.5 -108	-120	+100
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	48.5 -110	-127	+104
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	48 -110	-125	+109
Polymarket	-1.5 -108	—	-117	+113
ReBet	-2 -111	48.5 -111	-127	+104
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	48.5 +100	-120	+100

Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -1.0 · -117 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): TOM -1 at -117 (-2.3%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-2.6%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-3.2%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -1.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -117 (52¢ on the app) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -120 at TOM

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Navy to win): TOM -120 (-1.6%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -121 (-1.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -125 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -127 (54¢ on the app) (-3.0%) · FanDuel -130 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

The pace number is 48.9, 0.7 pts over the market's 48.1; the model says 47.8, 0.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $458 available; Over 47.5, only $294 available; Under 47.5, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.2 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Navy -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Navy by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	-0.5	+100
Massey	-6.5	-221
Market (20 books)	-1.0	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -1.0	-117	-107	-2.3%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-120	-112	-1.6%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 5.4.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.2 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre Dame

CFB tomorrow 2:30pm

Stanford +39

should be Stanford +37.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 39.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 39TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 40.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 35

Massey

Notre Dame by 35

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 37.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

Model number

562 pts over the market

Pace number

54.40.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.61.4 pts under the market

Massey

55.71.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.4, 0.1 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 56, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-39 -110	54 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-39.5 -103	54.5 -107	—	—

All 23 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-39 -110	54 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-39.5 -107	55 -107	—	—
BetAnything	-39.5 -110	54 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-38.5 -115	54.5 -105	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-39 -110	54 -115	—	—
betPARX	-39.5 -107	55 -107	—	—
BetRivers	-39.5 -113	55 -108	—	—
BetUS	-39.5 -110	54 -115	—	—
Bovada	-39.5 -105	54.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-39.5 -108	54.5 -113	—	—
Courtside	-39.5 -106	54.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-39.5 -108	54.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-39.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-39 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-39.5 -105	54.5 -114	—	—
Fliff	-39.5 -115	54.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-39.5 -105	54.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-39 -106	54 -114	—	—
Pinnacle	-39.5 -103	54.5 -107	—	—
Polymarket	—	53.5	—	—
ReBet	-40.5 -111	54.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-39.5 -110	54.5 -105	—	—

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stanford +39.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Stanford): DraftKings or Caesars +39.5 at -112 (3.2%) · FanDuel +39.5 at -115 (2.5%) · Fanatics or TOM +39 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +39.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (2.1%) · BetMGM +38.5 at -105 (1.9%).

Blowout line

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 54.4, 0.1 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 56, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -36.0, now -39.5 (the market moved 3.7 toward Notre Dame).

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $111 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -39.5 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 37.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	-40.5	—
Sagarin	-35.0	—
Massey	-35.0	—
Market (19 books)	-39.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Stanford Cardinal +39.0	-110	-121	+2.3%
Total	Over 54.0	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -39.5 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at Temple

CFB tomorrow 2:45pm

Temple -3.5

should be Temple -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Temple by 3.5TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game

FPI

Temple by 5.5

Sagarin

Temple by 3

Massey

Temple by 1

Nasty Number

Temple by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

56.81.8 pts over the market

Pace number

54.50.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

61.26.2 pts over the market

Massey

58.23.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.5, 0.2 pts over the market's 54.3; the model says 56.8, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -108	55 -105	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	54 -116	-176	+151

All 24 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -108	55 -105	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -107	54.5 -112	-190	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	55 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -108	55 -105	-180	+157
betPARX	-4.5 -107	54.5 -112	-190	+150
BetRivers	-4.5 -109	54.5 -113	-190	+150
BetUS	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-190	+154
Courtside	-3.5 -112	54.5 -113	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	54.5 -115	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-176	+146
Fliff	-3.5 -115	54.5 -120	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -105	54.5 -110	-190	+150
LowVig.ag	-4 -101	55 -103	-180	+157
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	55 -110	-180	+146
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	54 -116	-176	+151
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	55.5 +108	-170	—
ReBet	-3.5 -111	54.5 -116	-180	+146
theScore Bet	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +3.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UConn): Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.1%) · Caesars +3.5 at -109 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi or TOM +3.5 at -112 (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +150 at DraftKings

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (UConn to win): Caesars +154 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 38¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (-0.9%) · FanDuel +146 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 54.5, 0.2 pts over the market's 54.3; the model says 56.8, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UConn Huskies ML, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has UConn +4.5 while Pinnacle is at Temple by 3.5.

Full detail

We settle onTemple by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game
FPI	-5.5	-193
Sagarin	-3.0	-134
Massey	-1.0	-103
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +3.5	-105	-103	-0.4%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+150	+156	-0.9%
Total	Over 55.0	-105	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at Arkansas

CFB tomorrow 3:15pm

Arkansas +13.5

should be Arkansas +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Tennessee by 13.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 14.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 11

Massey

Tennessee by 11

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 130.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

Model number

54.23.2 pts over the market

Pace number

52.51.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.78.7 pts over the market

Massey

57.46.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.5, 1.4 pts over the market's 51.1; the model says 54.2, 3 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	53.5 +105 47¢	+426 18¢	-564 84¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -101	51 -118	+421	-579

All 24 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	53.5 +105 47¢	+426 18¢	-564 84¢
Bally Bet	+13.5 -106	51.5 -110	+420	-625
BetAnything	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+435	-575
BetMGM	+13.5 -105	51.5 -110	+400	-550
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+415	-550
betPARX	+13.5 -106	51.5 -110	+420	-625
BetRivers	+13.5 -107	51.5 -112	+410	-625
BetUS	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+400	-520
Bovada	+13.5 -105	51.5 -110	+410	-585
Caesars	+13.5 -107	50.5 -110	+400	-560
Courtside	+13.5 -108	51.5 -106	+423	-530
DraftKings	+13.5 -110	51.5 -108	+410	-550
DraftKings Predictions	+13.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in
Fanatics	+13.5 -110	51.5 -110	+425	-575
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	51.5 -105	+400	-550
Fliff	+13.5 -115	51.5 -115	+400	-580
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -105	51.5 -110	+425	-650
LowVig.ag	+13.5 -103	51 -114	+415	-550
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+390	-549
Pinnacle	+13.5 -101	51 -118	+421	-579
Polymarket	+13.5 +104	51.5 -104	+456	-525
ReBet	+13 -111	51 -116	+390	-549
theScore Bet	+13.5 -105	51.5 -105	+380	-550

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +13.5 · -107 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or BetMGM +13.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.3%) · Caesars or TOM +13.5 at -107 (-0.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): Kalshi or Fanatics +426 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +410 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +400 (18¢ on the app) (-1.1%).

Off the band

The total · 51

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

TOM: moneyline +418 here against +514 consensus.

Kalshi has the total at 53.5 while Pinnacle is at 51. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game
FPI	+14.5	+520
Sagarin	+11.0	+377
Massey	+11.0	+373
Market (20 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	58.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5	-107	-103	-0.9%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+400	+428	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-115	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: moneyline +418 here against +514 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio State

CFB tomorrow 3:15pm

Ohio State -32.5

should be Ohio State -32.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 32.5.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 32.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 33.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 27.5

Massey

Ohio State by 32

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 32.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 32.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

Model number

57.10.6 pts over the market

Pace number

53.13.4 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

54.22.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.72.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 53.1, 3.4 pts under the market's 56.5; the model says 57.1, 0.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-32.5 -110	56.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-32.5 -112	56.5 -110	—	—

All 24 books

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-32.5 -110	56.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-33 -110	56 -113	—	—
BetAnything	-33 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-33.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-32.5 -110	56.5 -108	—	—
betPARX	-33 -110	56 -113	—	—
BetRivers	-33 -112	56 -114	—	—
BetUS	-33 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-32.5 -115	56.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-33.5 -107	56.5 -112	—	—
Courtside	-33.5 -106	56.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-33.5 -108	56.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-32.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57.5 47¢ +104 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-33.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	+3000
FanDuel	-33.5 -110	56.5 -114	—	—
Fliff	-33.5 -115	56.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-32.5 -115	56.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-32.5 -106	56.5 -106	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-33 -110	57 -110	—	+1700
Pinnacle	-32.5 -112	56.5 -110	—	—
Polymarket	—	—	—	—
ReBet	-34 -114	57 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-33.5 -110	56.5 -105	—	—

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio State -32.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Ohio State): TOM -32.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -32.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.0%) · Caesars -33.5 at -107 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -33.5 at -108 (-3.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -33.5 at -110 (-3.7%).

Blowout line

Ohio State to win · — at FanDuel

We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ohio State to win): Fanatics, Kalshi or BetMGM -9000 (-0.7%) · FanDuel — (-1.3%).

Off the band

The total · 56.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Maryland).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $106 available; Under 55.5, only $49 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 32.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-33.5	—
Sagarin	-27.5	-2309
Massey	-32.0	—
Market (20 books)	-32.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes -32.5	-110	-100	-2.4%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	—	-5584	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-112	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at Marshall

CFB tomorrow 6:00pm

Coastal Carolina +4

should be Coastal Carolina +3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 4, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

Marshall by 4TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game

FPI

Marshall by 1.5

Sagarin

Marshall by 1.5

Massey

Marshall by 5.5

Nasty Number

Marshall by 3.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

Model number

55.41.6 pts under the market

Pace number

53.33.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

66.69.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.71.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 53.3, 5.1 pts under the market's 58.4; the model says 55.4, 3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-4 -112	57 -130	-177	+147
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -104	58.5 -113	-192	+164

All 24 books

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-4 -112	57 -130	-177	+147
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-5 -109	58.5 -112	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4 -110	58 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-4 -110	58.5 -115	-185	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4 -112	57 -130	-177	+155
betPARX	-5 -109	58.5 -112	-215	+170
BetRivers	-5 -112	58.5 -113	-215	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	58 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-4.5 -105	59 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-4 -107	58.5 -114	-179	+151
Courtside	-4 -110	58.5 -113	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4 -112	58.5 -115	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 54¢ -127 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics	-4.5 -105	59 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-4.5 -105	58.5 -115	-184	+150
Fliff	-4.5 -110	58.5 -120	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -115	58.5 -110	-210	+170
LowVig.ag	-4 -108	57 -130	-177	+155
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	58 -110	-196	+158
Pinnacle	-4.5 -104	58.5 -113	-192	+164
Polymarket	-4.5 +100	59.5 +108	—	+163
ReBet	-4.5 -111	58.5 -114	-196	+158
theScore Bet	-4.5 -105	58.5 -115	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +4.0 · -108 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): Kalshi +4.5 at 51¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%) · DraftKings or TOM +4 at -108 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +4.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +159 (37¢) at Kalshi

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): Kalshi 37¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics or BetMGM +156 (37¢ on the app) (-0.8%) · DraftKings +154 (-1.2%) · Caesars or FanDuel +151 (-1.6%) · TOM +147 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 58.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 63°F, 43% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Marshall). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $189 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.4 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game
FPI	-1.5	-109
Sagarin	-1.5	-111
Massey	-5.5	-196
Market (20 books)	-4.0	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	60.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.0	-108	-105	-0.7%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+159	+162	-0.5%
Total	Over 57.0	-130	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.4 consensus; total 57.0 here against 58.4 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at Kentucky

CFB tomorrow 6:00pm

Under 50.5

weather: 20 mph wind and 80% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

LSU by 8TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game

FPI

LSU by 8.5

Sagarin

LSU by 5.5

Massey

LSU by 5.5

Nasty Number

LSU by 80 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

Model number

49.31.2 pts under the market

Pace number

53.93.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.21.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.63.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.9, 3.5 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 49.3, 1.2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+8 -105	50.5 -110	+245	-320
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -116 52¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -113	50.5 -107	+275	-344

All 24 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+8 -105	50.5 -110	+245	-320
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -116 52¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -109	51 -108	+295	-385
BetAnything	+8 -105	50 -110	+250	-320
BetMGM	+8.5 -105	50.5 -115	+280	-350
BetOnline.ag	+8 -105	50.5 -110	+260	-320
betPARX	+9.5 -109	51 -108	+295	-385
BetRivers	+9.5 -110	51 -109	+295	-420
BetUS	+8.5 -110	50 -110	+260	-320
Bovada	+8.5 -110	50.5 -110	+275	-350
Caesars	+8.5 -107	50.5 -114	+275	-345
Courtside	+8.5 -108	50.5 -106	+282	-335
DraftKings	+8.5 -108	50.5 -108	+275	-345
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	50.5 -115	+270	-340
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	50.5 -106	+255	-320
Fliff	+9.5 -120	50.5 -120	+270	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	50.5 -115	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+8 -101	50.5 -108	+260	-320
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	50 -110	+265	-350
Pinnacle	+9.5 -113	50.5 -107	+275	-344
Polymarket	+8.5 +104	49.5 -113	—	-317
ReBet	+8.5 -114	50.5 -119	+265	-350
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	49.5 -115	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

LSU -8.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (LSU): Fanatics or FanDuel -8.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · TOM -8 at -115 (-3.4%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 50¢ (-3.6%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-3.8%) · Caesars -8.5 at -113 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

LSU to win · -320 at FanDuel

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (LSU to win): FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi -320 (-1.8%) · Fanatics -340 (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -345 (-3.2%) · BetMGM -350 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

The total · 50.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 64°F, 80% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +256 here against +317 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game
FPI	+8.5	+299
Sagarin	+5.5	+193
Massey	+5.5	+191
Market (20 books)	+8.0	+256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	LSU Tigers -8.0	-115	-100	-3.4%
Moneyline	LSU Tigers ML	-320	-290	-1.8%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.1 consensus; moneyline +256 here against +317 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at Memphis

CFB tomorrow 6:00pm

Memphis -14.5

should be Memphis -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 14.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game

FPI

Memphis by 20

Sagarin

Memphis by 18

Massey

Memphis by 18

Nasty Number

Memphis by 150.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

Model number

52.2on the market

Pace number

54.22.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.98.9 pts over the market

Massey

58.36.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.2, 0.5 pts over the market's 53.7; the model says 52.2, 1.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 6.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14.5 -113	52 -125	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5	53.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Pinnacle	-14.5 -105	54 -107	-657	+465

All 24 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14.5 -113	52 -125	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5	53.5 -112 51¢	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Bally Bet	-14.5 -106	53.5 -109	-770	+500
BetAnything	-14.5 -110	53.5 -110	-650	+450
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	53.5 -110	-650	+475
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -113	52 -125	-625	+461
betPARX	-14.5 -106	53.5 -109	-770	+500
BetRivers	-14.5 -108	53.5 -112	-770	+500
BetUS	-14.5 -110	53.5 -110	-625	+465
Bovada	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-675	+460
Caesars	-14.5 -109	53.5 -107	-675	+450
Courtside	-14.5 -106	53.5 -108	-600	+471
DraftKings	-14.5 -108	53.5 -110	-625	+455
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	16¢ +456 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	53.5 -106	-670	+470
Fliff	-14.5 -115	53.5 -115	-700	+470
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -105	53.5 -110	-750	+500
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -109	52 -124	-625	+461
MyBookie.ag	-14.5 -110	53.5 -110	-699	+470
Pinnacle	-14.5 -105	54 -107	-657	+465
Polymarket	-14.5	53.5	-567	+525
ReBet	-14.5 -116	53.5 -114	-699	+470
theScore Bet	-14.5 -105	52.5 -115	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis -14.5 · -108 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Memphis): DraftKings -14.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · Caesars -14.5 at -109 (-1.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -14.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · TOM -14.5 at -113 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · -657 at Fanatics

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Memphis to win): Kalshi 85¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings -625 (-1.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -650 (-2.0%) · FanDuel or Caesars -670 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 53.5

The pace number is 54.2, 0.5 pts over the market's 53.7; the model says 52.2, 1.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 66°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Kalshi thin: Memphis Tigers -14.5, only $2 available; Memphis Tigers -14.5, only $96 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 1521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game
FPI	-20.0	-893
Sagarin	-18.0	-746
Massey	-18.0	-744
Market (20 books)	-14.5	-595

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	55.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers -14.5	-108	-104	-0.9%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	-657	-551	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-125	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 5.8.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.7 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern Illinois

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Air Force -7.5

should be Air Force -7.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Air Force by 7.5TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game

FPI

Air Force by 8.5

Sagarin

Air Force by 7

Massey

Air Force by 8.5

Nasty Number

Air Force by 7.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

Model number

46.20.3 pts under the market

Pace number

50.43.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.95.4 pts over the market

Massey

48.21.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 50.4, 3.5 pts over the market's 46.9; the model says 46.2, 0.7 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	46.5 -115	+245	-320
Kalshi	+7.5	47.5 -107 50¢	+252 27¢	-290 73¢
Pinnacle	+7 -104	47 -107	+243	-298

All 24 books

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	46.5 -115	+245	-320
Kalshi	+7.5	47.5 -107 50¢	+252 27¢	-290 73¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -115	47.5 -104	+235	-305
BetAnything	+7.5 -115	47 -110	+255	-325
BetMGM	+7.5 -115	46.5 -115	+240	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -116	46.5 -115	+260	-320
betPARX	+7.5 -115	47.5 -104	+235	-305
BetRivers	+7.5 -118	47.5 -105	+235	-305
BetUS	+7.5 -115	47 -110	+260	-320
Bovada	+7 -105	47 -110	+250	-300
Caesars	+7 -106	46.5 -115	+255	-320
Courtside	+7 -103	46.5 -113	+256	-302
DraftKings	+7 -105	46.5 -115	+250	-310
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 55¢ -132 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	47 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -114	46.5 -114	+255	-320
Fliff	+7.5 -125	46.5 -125	+240	-320
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -115	46.5 -120	+240	-300
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -112	46.5 -114	+260	-320
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	46.5 -110	+246	-319
Pinnacle	+7 -104	47 -107	+243	-298
Polymarket	+7.5 -117	47.5 +100	+257	-270
ReBet	+7.5 -119	46.5 -119	+248	-319
theScore Bet	+7.5 -125	47.5 -115	+230	-280

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +7.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northern Illinois): FanDuel +7.5 at -114 (-2.9%) · BetMGM +7.5 at -115 (-3.1%) · TOM +7.5 at -116 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.5%) · DraftKings +7 at -105 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Northern Illinois to win · +245 at TOM

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Northern Illinois to win): FanDuel or Caesars +255 (-1.3%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Fanatics +252 (-1.5%) · TOM +245 (-2.1%) · BetMGM +240 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 47

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5, only $284 available; Under 47.5, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.2 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game
FPI	+8.5	+303
Sagarin	+7.0	+227
Massey	+8.5	+299
Market (20 books)	+7.5	+256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	50.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Illinois Huskies +7.5	-116	-102	-3.3%
Moneyline	Northern Illinois Huskies ML	+245	+272	-2.1%
Total	Over 46.5	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.2 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.9 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at Alabama

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Alabama -1.5

should be Alabama -2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 1.5TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 1.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 2

Massey

Alabama by 1

Nasty Number

Alabama by 20.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

Model number

44.57 pts under the market

Pace number

61.19.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

56.44.9 pts over the market

Massey

61.49.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 61.1, 10 pts over the market's 51.1; the model says 44.5, 6.6 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-1.5 -108	51.5 -105	-123	+103
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -110	51 -110	-124	+108

All 24 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-1.5 -108	51.5 -105	-123	+103
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -113	51 -108	-127	+105
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	51 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	51.5 -105	-118	-102
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -108	51.5 -105	-123	+103
betPARX	-1.5 -113	51 -108	-127	+105
BetRivers	-1.5 -114	51 -109	-129	+104
BetUS	-1.5 -110	51 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-2.5 -115	51 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5 -106	51.5 -105	-122	+104
Courtside	-1.5 -112	51.5 -103	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -112	51.5 -105	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	51.5 -105	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -114	51.5 -110	-126	+105
Fliff	-1.5 -120	51.5 -110	-130	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -110	50.5 -115	-125	+105
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -108	51.5 -103	-123	+103
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	51 -110	-126	+103
Pinnacle	-2.5 -110	51 -110	-124	+108
Polymarket	-2.5 -108	51.5 +104	—	+113
ReBet	-1.5 -116	51.5 -109	-126	+103
theScore Bet	-2.5 -110	51.5 +100	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -1.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): Caesars -1.5 at -106 (-0.5%) · TOM -1.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -114 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -118 at BetMGM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Alabama to win): BetMGM -118 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -120 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -122 (-1.3%) · TOM -123 (-1.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -126 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 51

The pace number is 61.1, 10 pts over the market's 51.1; the model says 44.5, 6.6 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 5.1 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

BetOnline.ag still has Alabama -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Alabama by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game
FPI	-1.5	-113
Sagarin	-2.0	-117
Massey	-1.0	-107
Market (20 books)	-1.5	-118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5	-108	-104	-0.9%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-118	-116	-0.5%
Total	Over 51.5	-105	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.1 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn State

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Penn State -1.5

should be Penn State -2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 1.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 2.5

Sagarin

Penn State by 1

Massey

Penn State by 4.5

Nasty Number

Penn State by 20.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

52.32.7 pts under the market

Pace number

54.30.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.85.8 pts over the market

Massey

57.22.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.3, 0.3 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 52.3, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	55 -105	-123	+103
Kalshi	-1.5	55.5 +101 48¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -103	54.5 -107	-122	+106

All 24 books

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	55 -105	-123	+103
Kalshi	-1.5	55.5 +101 48¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-127	+105
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-120	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -110	55 -105	-123	+103
betPARX	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-127	+105
BetRivers	-1.5 -113	54.5 -112	-129	+104
BetUS	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-2 -110	54.5 -110	-120	+100
Caesars	-1.5 -108	54.5 -114	-124	+105
Courtside	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -112	54.5 -112	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	54.5 -115	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-118	-102
Fliff	-2.5 -105	54.5 -120	-125	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-125	+105
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -106	55 -103	-123	+103
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-123	+101
Pinnacle	-2.5 -103	54.5 -107	-122	+106
Polymarket	-1.5 -104	55.5 +108	-117	—
ReBet	-1.5 -114	54.5 -114	-123	+101
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	54.5 -105	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): Caesars -1.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM -1.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -118 at FanDuel

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Penn State to win): FanDuel -118 (-0.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -120 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -121 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM -122 (53¢ on the app) (-1.0%) · Caesars -124 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 54.3, 0.3 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 52.3, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Penn State).

Kalshi thin: Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5, only $94 available; USC Trojans ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Penn State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Penn State by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game
FPI	-2.5	-120
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	-4.5	-176
Market (20 books)	-1.5	-118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-118	-118	-0.0%
Total	Over 55.0	-105	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Penn State Nittany Lions since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 4.0.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.1 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at Virginia

CFB tomorrow 6:30pm

Virginia -9.5

should be Virginia -10 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 9.5TOM, -120

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 9.5

Sagarin

Virginia by 8.5

Massey

Virginia by 10

Nasty Number

Virginia by 100.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

Model number

52.92.4 pts over the market

Pace number

52.31.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

446.5 pts under the market

Massey

51.81.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.3, 2.1 pts over the market's 50.2; the model says 52.9, 2.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-9.5 -120	50.5 -115	-365	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-10 -105	50 -116	-387	+303

All 24 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-9.5 -120	50.5 -115	-365	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -113	50.5 -114	-400	+310
BetAnything	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-370	+292
BetMGM	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-400	+310
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -120	50 -110	-365	+292
betPARX	-9.5 -113	50.5 -114	-400	+310
BetRivers	-9.5 -114	50.5 -114	-420	+300
BetUS	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-365	+293
Bovada	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-400	+300
Caesars	-10 -110	50.5 -109	-360	+285
Courtside	-10 -108	50.5 -106	-364	+303
DraftKings	-10 -110	50.5 -108	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-8.5 -118	50.5 -110	-365	+285
Fliff	-9.5 -125	50.5 -115	-395	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -110	50.5 -115	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -116	50 -108	-365	+292
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-410	+310
Pinnacle	-10 -105	50 -116	-387	+303
Polymarket	-8.5	51.5 +108	-335	+317
ReBet	-10.5 -109	50.5 -114	-420	+310
theScore Bet	-10.5 +100	50.5 +100	-380	+290

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -8.5 · 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.0%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 51¢ (-1.6%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -118 (-2.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars -10 at -110 (-3.1%) · TOM -9.5 at -120 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

Virginia to win · -340 (76¢) at Kalshi

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Virginia to win): Kalshi 76¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-1.4%) · Caesars -360 (-1.6%) · FanDuel or TOM -365 (-1.8%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -375 (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 50

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Virginia).

Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers -8.5, only $5 available; Under 51.5, only $437 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Polymarket still has Virginia -8.5 while Pinnacle is at Virginia by 10.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 1040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game
FPI	-9.5	-322
Sagarin	-8.5	-302
Massey	-10.0	-346
Market (20 books)	-9.5	-349

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -8.5	-113	-108	-1.0%
Moneyline	Virginia Cavaliers ML	-340	-328	-0.6%
Total	Under 50.5	-105	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at Purdue

CFB tomorrow 7:00pm

Minnesota -2.5

should be Minnesota -2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Minnesota by 2.5TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game

FPI

Minnesota by 0.5

Sagarin

Minnesota by 2.5

Massey

Minnesota by 4.5

Nasty Number

Minnesota by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

Model number

49.20.8 pts under the market

Pace number

53.93.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.19.1 pts over the market

Massey

54.14.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.9, 3.6 pts over the market's 50.2; the model says 49.2, 1 pt under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 -109	50 -110	+118	-138
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -101	50.5 -103	+118	-136

All 24 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 -109	50 -110	+118	-138
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -112	50 -109	+114	-139
BetAnything	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	50.5 -110	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -109	50 -110	+118	-138
betPARX	+2.5 -112	50 -109	+114	-139
BetRivers	+2.5 -113	50 -110	+112	-141
BetUS	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+120	-140
Bovada	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -110	50 -108	+118	-139
Courtside	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	49.5 -112	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 48¢ -100 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -106	50.5 -106	+114	-137
Fliff	+2.5 -110	49.5 -125	+110	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	49.5 -115	+115	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	50 -108	+118	-138
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	50 -110	+115	-140
Pinnacle	+2.5 -101	50.5 -103	+118	-136
Polymarket	+2.5 +100	49.5 -108	+117	—
ReBet	+2.5 -111	49.5 -119	+115	-140
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	49.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota -2.5 · -111 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Minnesota): Caesars -2.5 at -109 (-1.9%) · TOM -2.5 at -111 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-3.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.9%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -136 (-2.6%) · TOM or Caesars -138 (-2.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -140 (-3.3%) · DraftKings -142 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 50

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $89 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+2.5	+128
Massey	+4.5	+180
Market (20 books)	+2.5	+123

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5	-111	-101	-2.3%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-132	-122	-1.9%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at Utah

CFB tomorrow 9:15pm

Utah -14.5

should be Utah -15.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 14.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game

FPI

Utah by 15.5

Sagarin

Utah by 11

Massey

Utah by 18

Nasty Number

Utah by 15.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

Model number

52.22.2 pts over the market

Pace number

51.61.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.81.8 pts over the market

Massey

54.54.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.6, 0.6 pts over the market's 51; the model says 52.2, 1.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-14.5 -115	50 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-719 87¢	—
Pinnacle	-16 -105	51 -109	-730	+505

All 23 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-14.5 -115	50 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-719 87¢	—
Bally Bet	-16 -109	51 -110	-770	+510
BetAnything	-15 -110	51 -110	-750	+520
BetMGM	-15.5 -110	51.5 -105	-700	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -115	50 -120	-650	+476
betPARX	-16 -109	51 -110	-770	+510
BetRivers	-16 -110	51 -112	-770	+500
BetUS	-15.5 -110	50.5 -110	-650	+475
Bovada	-16 -110	51 -110	-750	+500
Caesars	-15.5 -108	51 -112	-750	+500
Courtside	-15.5 -108	51.5 -103	-669	+519
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	51.5 -105	-700	+500
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-15.5 -110	51 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-15.5 -110	50.5 -115	-850	+570
Fliff	-14.5 -125	51.5 -110	-775	+505
Hard Rock Bet	-15.5 -115	50.5 -120	-750	+500
MyBookie.ag	-15.5 -110	51 -110	-752	+500
Pinnacle	-16 -105	51 -109	-730	+505
Polymarket	—	51.5 +104	-614	+567
ReBet	-16.5 -114	50.5 -125	-800	+530
theScore Bet	-15.5 -105	51.5 +100	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah -15.5 · 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Utah): DraftKings Predictions -15.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.8%) · Kalshi -16.5 at 48¢ (-1.0%) · Caesars -15.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · TOM -14.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -15.5 at -110 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Utah to win · -750 at Caesars

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -700 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 87¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.0%) · Caesars -750 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -850 (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 51

The pace number is 51.6, 0.6 pts over the market's 51; the model says 52.2, 1.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $49 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $131 available; Under 51.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 15.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game
FPI	-15.5	-559
Sagarin	-11.0	-373
Massey	-18.0	-738
Market (19 books)	-14.5	-651

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Utah Utes -15.5	-104	-101	-0.8%
Moneyline	Utah Utes ML	-750	-565	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-120	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.8 consensus; total 50.0 here against 51.0 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona State

CFB tomorrow 9:30pm

Arizona State -20.5

should be Arizona State -21 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 20.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Arizona State by 14.5

Sagarin

Arizona State by 21.5

Massey

Arizona State by 20.5

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 210.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

Model number

52.82.3 pts over the market

Pace number

52.72.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

51.20.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.7, 1.9 pts over the market's 50.8; the model says 52.8, 2.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-20.5 -113	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Pinnacle	-21 -105	51 -102	-1633	+907

All 24 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-20.5 -113	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Bally Bet	-21 -112	50.5 -108	-2000	+900
BetAnything	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1900	+1025
BetMGM	-20.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1600	+900
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -113	50.5 -110	-1750	+961
betPARX	-21 -112	50.5 -108	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-21 -114	50.5 -109	-2000	+900
BetUS	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1750	+1000
Bovada	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1800	+850
Caesars	-21 -108	50.5 -110	-1700	+950
Courtside	-21 -106	50.5 -108	-1467	+953
DraftKings	-21 -108	50.5 -110	-1600	+900
DraftKings Predictions	-20.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 48¢ -100 all-in	93¢ -1901 all-in	8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1800	+1050
FanDuel	-20.5 -118	50.5 -115	-1700	+890
Fliff	-20.5 -120	50.5 -120	-1980	+915
Hard Rock Bet	-21.5 -105	50.5 -110	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-21 -106	50.5 -108	-1750	+961
MyBookie.ag	-21 -110	50 -110	-1695	+840
Pinnacle	-21 -105	51 -102	-1633	+907
Polymarket	-20.5 -113	49.5 -117	-1329	—
ReBet	-21.5 -105	50.5 -114	-1695	+840
theScore Bet	-21.5 +100	50.5 -110	-2500	+1100

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona State -20.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Arizona State): BetMGM -20.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · TOM -20.5 at -113 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -20.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%) · FanDuel -20.5 at -118 (-2.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars -21 at -108 (-2.6%).

Blowout line

Arizona State to win · -1429 (93¢) at Kalshi

We make it 91 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arizona State to win): Kalshi 93¢ (-2.5%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -1600 (-3.1%) · FanDuel or Caesars -1700 (-3.5%) · Fanatics -1800 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 93¢ on the app (-1901 all-in) (-4.0%).

Off the band

The total · 51

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Arizona State).

Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $438 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 2130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game
FPI	-14.5	-507
Sagarin	-21.5	-1168
Massey	-20.5	-939
Market (20 books)	-20.5	-1443

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	48.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5	-113	-107	-1.4%
Moneyline	Arizona State Sun Devils ML	-1429	-1008	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.8.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Oct 11

13 games4 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Giants at Commanders, Giants +4.0.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at Commanders

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Giants +4

should be Giants +3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Giants +4.0: FPI is the holdout at Commanders by 5.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 4.0% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Commanders by 4TOM, -112

The Four

nfelo

Commanders by 12.9 pts our side

FPI

Commanders by 5.51.4 pts against us

Sagarin

Giants by 0.54.4 pts our side

Massey

Commanders by 0.53.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Commanders by 31 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at Commanders by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Giants's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

41.30.7 pts under the market

Pace number

46.24.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

45.93.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.62.4 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.2, 4.3 pts over the market's 41.9; the model says 41.3, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-4 -112	42 -107	-195	+165
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-4 -106	42 -104	-199	+173

All 26 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-4 -112	42 -107	-195	+165
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -114	42 -109	-195	+160
BetAnything	-4 -110	42 -110	-195	+165
BetMGM	-4 -118	41.5 -108	-200	+165
BetOnline.ag	-4 -112	42 -107	-195	+170
betPARX	-4 -114	42 -109	-195	+160
BetRivers	-4.5 -107	42 -109	-195	+160
BetUS	-4 -110	41.5 -110	-195	+167
Bovada	-4 -110	42 -105	-200	+170
Caesars	-4 -108	41.5 -114	-197	+165
Courtside	-4.5 -105	41.5 -113	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	41.5 -115	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 48¢ -100 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	41.5 -110	-200	+165
FanDuel	-3.5 -120	42.5 -105	-200	+168
Fliff	-3.5 -115	42.5 -110	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -115	41.5 -110	-195	+165
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -115	41.5 -110	-195	+165
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -115	41.5 -110	-195	+165
LowVig.ag	-4 -107	42 -104	-195	+170
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	41.5 -110	-202	+163
Pinnacle	-4 -106	42 -104	-199	+173
Polymarket	-3.5 -108	41.5 -104	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-198	+166
theScore Bet	-4 -110	41.5 -110	-190	+160

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +4.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Giants): TOM +4 at -108 (4.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -102 (3.9%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (3.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (3.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +4 at -110 (3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Giants to win · +165 at Caesars

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Giants to win): FanDuel +168 (3.0%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +165 (2.6%) · DraftKings +160 (1.9%) · Kalshi 38¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 38¢ on the app (+150 all-in) (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 42

The pace number is 46.2, 4.3 pts over the market's 41.9; the model says 41.3, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +4.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 66°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Stefon Diggs (WR, Commanders), Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onCommanders by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-106
FPI	-5.5	-216
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	-0.5	-100
Market (22 books)	-4.0	-187

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	40.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +4.0	-108	-127	+4.0%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+165	+148	+2.6%
Total	Under 42.0	-113	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at Steelers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Colts +3

should be Colts +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Steelers by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Colts by 13.4 pts our side

FPI

Colts by 0.52.8 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em2.5 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em2.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Steelers by 20.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Colts. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Colts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

45.11.1 pts over the market

Pace number

46.92.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

473 pts over the market

FPI

42.31.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.9, 3.3 pts over the market's 43.6; the model says 45.1, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	44 -105	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	43.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +103	43.5 -111	-149	+132

All 26 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	44 -105	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	43.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -110	44 -113	-139	+116
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	44 -105	-145	+125
BetMGM	-2.5 -118	44 -105	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	44 -105	-148	+128
betPARX	-2.5 -110	44 -113	-139	+116
BetRivers	-2.5 -110	44 -113	-139	+116
BetUS	-2 -120	44 -105	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 +100	44 -105	-150	+130
Caesars	-2.5 -114	44 -107	-143	+121
Courtside	-3 -103	43.5 -113	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -105	43.5 -115	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	43.5 -115	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -112	43.5 -110	-144	+122
Fliff	-2.5 -115	43.5 -120	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	43.5 -115	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -120	43.5 -115	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -120	43.5 -115	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-3 +103	44 -102	-148	+128
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	44 -110	-144	+117
Pinnacle	-3 +103	43.5 -111	-149	+132
Polymarket	-2.5 -113	44.5 +113	-138	+133
ReBet	-2.5 -125	43.5 -120	-146	+124
theScore Bet	-3 -105	43.5 -115	-145	+125

Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +3 at -115 (2.9%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.8%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-0.3%).

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +129 (42¢) at Kalshi

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Colts to win): Kalshi 42¢ (2.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +125 (1.7%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions +123 (43¢ on the app) (1.3%) · FanDuel +122 (1.1%) · Caesars +121 (0.9%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

The pace number is 46.9, 3.3 pts over the market's 43.6; the model says 45.1, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +3.0 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 65°F, 99% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colts, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $224 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Will Mallory (TE, Colts) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

BetUS still has Steelers -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Steelers by 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+105
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	PK	+100
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	43.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.0	-115	-129	+2.9%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+129	+117	+2.5%
Total	Under 44.0	-115	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 10-05 08:06; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at Chargers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pm

Chargers +3.5

should be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Broncos by 3.5TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 12.6 pts our side

FPI

Broncos by 0.53 pts our side

Sagarin

Broncos by 12.4 pts our side

Massey

Broncos by 21.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 30.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Chargers. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

40.31.7 pts under the market

Pace number

42.80.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

39.52.5 pts under the market

FPI

38.53.5 pts under the market

The pace number is 42.8, 1.1 pts over the market's 41.7; the model says 40.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+150	-180
Pinnacle	+3.5 -109	41.5 -114	+162	-186

All 25 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+150	-180
Bally Bet	+3 +100	42 -113	+150	-182
BetAnything	+3.5 -120	42 -110	+155	-180
BetMGM	+3.5 -112	42 -108	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+157	-180
betPARX	+3 +100	42 -113	+150	-182
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	42 -113	+150	-182
BetUS	+3.5 -120	42 -105	+155	-180
Bovada	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+160	-185
Caesars	+3.5 -113	42 -105	+152	-182
Courtside	+3.5 -118	41.5 -113	+153	-176
DraftKings	+3.5 -118	41.5 -115	+150	-180
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 50¢ -108 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	41.5 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	42.5 -106	+152	-180
Fliff	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+150	-195
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	41.5 -115	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	41.5 -115	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	41.5 -115	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -103	42 -102	+157	-180
MyBookie.ag	+3 +100	42 -110	+150	-186
Pinnacle	+3.5 -109	41.5 -114	+162	-186
Polymarket	+3.5 -104	42.5	+170	-178
ReBet	+3.5 -120	41.5 -120	+153	-182
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	41.5 -115	+160	-190

Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers +3.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Chargers): TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.9%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (1.9%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (1.7%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (1.3%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (0.6%).

Not Nasty

Chargers to win · +150 at DraftKings

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Chargers to win): Fanatics +155 (1.5%) · Caesars or FanDuel +152 (1.0%) · DraftKings, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (0.7%) · BetMGM +145 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 41.5

The pace number is 42.8, 1.1 pts over the market's 41.7; the model says 40.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Quentin Johnston (WR, Chargers), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers) and 3 more.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +157 here against +172 consensus.

MyBookie.ag still has Broncos -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Broncos by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+104
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	+1.0	+106
Massey	+2.0	+114
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	39.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Chargers +3.5	-108	-121	+2.9%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Chargers ML	+150	+146	+0.7%
Total	Under 42.0	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus; moneyline +157 here against +172 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at Seahawks

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm

49ers +3

should be 49ers +3 at TOM

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. 49ers +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more 49ers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 3TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1.51.4 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 24.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 12.2 pts our side

Massey

Seahawks by 21.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 30.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

Model number

48.52.5 pts over the market

Pace number

49.33.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

49.23.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.3, 3.3 pts over the market's 46; the model says 48.5, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +104	46 -110	-178	+156

All 26 books

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetAnything	-3.5 -105	46 -110	-170	+150
BetMGM	-3 -118	46.5 -108	-165	+138
BetOnline.ag	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+153
betPARX	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetUS	-3.5 -105	46.5 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-3.5 +100	46 -115	-180	+155
Caesars	-3 -115	46.5 -106	-170	+141
Courtside	-3 -108	45.5 -113	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -115	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 47¢ +104 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	46.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3 -118	46.5 -105	-174	+146
Fliff	-3.5 +100	46.5 -110	-170	+135
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
LowVig.ag	-3 -121	46 -110	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	46 -110	-160	+130
Pinnacle	-3.5 +104	46 -110	-178	+156
Polymarket	-3.5	46.5 +104	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -120	-157	+133
theScore Bet	-3 -115	46.5 -110	-165	+140

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers +3.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +105 (2.0%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.5%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.2%) · FanDuel +3 at -104 (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +145 at FanDuel

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel, Kalshi, Fanatics or TOM +146 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 39¢ on the app (+144 all-in) (-0.1%) · Caesars +141 (-0.5%) · BetMGM +138 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +136 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 49.3, 3.3 pts over the market's 46; the model says 48.5, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 57°F.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -3.5, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Marques Sigle (S, 49ers), James Thompson Jr. (DT, 49ers) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

DraftKings still has Seahawks -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 2.3% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-113
FPI	+2.0	+115
Sagarin	-1.0	-103
Massey	-2.0	-116
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	48.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.0	+105	-103	+2.0%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+145	+144	+0.1%
Total	Over 46.0	-113	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at Jaguars

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Eagles +7.5

should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.9 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 7.5TOM, -113

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 2.54.9 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 6.51 pts our side

Sagarin

Jaguars by 3.54 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 3.53.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 6.50.8 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Eagles. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

42.40.4 pts over the market

Pace number

43.11.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

42.40.4 pts over the market

FPI

43.11.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 43.1, 1 pt over the market's 42.1; the model says 42.4, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-7.5 -113	42 -107	-370	+280
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 -106	42.5 +102	-363	+296

All 26 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-7.5 -113	42 -107	-370	+280
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetAnything	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-375	+297
BetMGM	-7.5 -110	41.5 -108	-375	+290
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -113	42 -107	-370	+296
betPARX	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetRivers	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetUS	-8 -105	42 -110	-370	+295
Bovada	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-380	+290
Caesars	-7.5 -108	42 -108	-380	+295
Courtside	-7.5 -108	41.5 -110	-364	+303
DraftKings	-7.5 -108	41.5 -112	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 49¢ -104 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+315
Fliff	-7.5 -110	42.5 -110	-395	+280
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -108	42 -104	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-391	+295
Pinnacle	-7.5 -106	42.5 +102	-363	+296
Polymarket	-7.5 -104	42.5 +108	-335	+317
ReBet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400	+310
theScore Bet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400	+300

Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +7.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): TOM +7.5 at -107 (2.7%) · BetMGM +7.5 at -108 (2.4%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (2.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +7.5 at -112 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +315 at FanDuel

We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +315 (3.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars +296 (1.8%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +290 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (1.1%) · TOM +280 (0.7%).

Off the band

The total · 42

The pace number is 43.1, 1 pt over the market's 42.1; the model says 42.4, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.9 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Saquon Barkley (RB, Eagles), DeVonta Smith (WR, Eagles), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-129
FPI	-6.5	-258
Sagarin	-3.5	-175
Massey	-3.5	-179
Market (22 books)	-7.5	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	42.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +7.5	-107	-119	+2.7%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+315	+270	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 42.0	-107	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at Falcons

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pm

Ravens +3.5

should be Ravens +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 3, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Falcons by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Falcons by 12.6 pts our side

FPI

Falcons by 51.5 pts against us

Sagarin

Ravens by 25.5 pts our side

Massey

Ravens by 14.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Falcons by 30.7 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Ravens. FPI at Falcons by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Ravens's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

48.34.8 pts over the market

Pace number

48.34.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

48.95.4 pts over the market

FPI

40.62.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 48.3, 4.5 pts over the market's 43.8; the model says 48.3, 4.5 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +100	44 -101	-179	+157

All 26 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	44 -105	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-170	+149
betPARX	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -103	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetUS	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-170	+146
Bovada	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -104	43.5 -114	-176	+149
Courtside	-3.5 -102	43.5 -113	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3.5 -102	43.5 -115	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 56¢ -138 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 +100	43.5 -114	-174	+144
Fliff	-3.5 +100	43.5 -120	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-175	+145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-175	+145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-175	+145
LowVig.ag	-3.5 +100	43.5 -113	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-181	+147
Pinnacle	-3.5 +100	44 -101	-179	+157
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	43.5 -108	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -120	-178	+150
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-185	+155

Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens +3.5 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ravens): Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (2.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -117 (2.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (2.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -122 (53¢ on the app) (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · +154 at DraftKings

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings +154 (2.9%) · BetMGM or Caesars +150 (2.2%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +146 (1.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +144 (39¢ on the app) (1.2%) · TOM +140 (0.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 44

The pace number is 48.3, 4.5 pts over the market's 43.8; the model says 48.3, 4.5 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Cam Jurgens (C, Ravens), Yasir Abdullah (LB, Falcons) and 1 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFalcons by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	+112
FPI	-5.0	-126
Sagarin	+2.0	+194
Massey	+1.0	+162
Market (22 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	+154	+137	+2.9%
Spread	Baltimore Ravens +3.5	-115	-129	+2.8%
Total	Over 43.5	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at Dolphins

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Bengals -7

should be Bengals -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Bengals by 7TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 92.2 pts our side

FPI

Bengals by 9.52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Bengals by 92 pts our side

Massey

Bengals by 3.53.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Bengals by 7.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Bengals. Massey at Bengals by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

41.72.3 pts under the market

Pace number

45.31.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

45.41.4 pts over the market

FPI

46.12.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 45.3, 1.8 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 41.7, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 42 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -120	44 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +108	43.5 -112	+281	-342

All 26 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -120	44 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+7 -115	43.5 -109	+250	-315
BetAnything	+7 -110	43.5 -115	+280	-350
BetMGM	+7 -110	44 -110	+275	-350
BetOnline.ag	+7 -115	44 -110	+267	-330
betPARX	+7 -115	43.5 -109	+250	-315
BetRivers	+7 -115	43.5 -109	+250	-315
BetUS	+7 -115	43.5 -110	+270	-330
Bovada	+7 -110	44 -105	+275	-350
Caesars	+7 -115	43.5 -109	+265	-335
Courtside	+7 -108	43.5 -110	+287	-345
DraftKings	+7 -110	43.5 -112	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 56¢ -138 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	43.5 -115	+265	-340
FanDuel	+7 -115	43.5 -110	+260	-320
Fliff	+6.5 +100	43.5 -110	+265	-380
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-325
LowVig.ag	+7 -110	44 -107	+267	-330
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	43.5 -110	+259	-336
Pinnacle	+6.5 +108	43.5 -112	+281	-342
Polymarket	+6.5 +108	44.5 +104	+300	-317
ReBet	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+265	-330
theScore Bet	+7 -115	43.5 -115	+260	-320

Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -7.0 · +100 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bengals): TOM -7 at +100 (2.6%) · Caesars -7 at -104 (1.6%) · FanDuel -7 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM -7 at -108 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -7 at -110 (0.2%).

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · -330 at TOM

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bengals to win): FanDuel or Kalshi -320 (-0.3%) · TOM -330 (-0.9%) · Caesars -335 (-1.2%) · Fanatics -340 (-1.4%) · BetMGM -350 (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

The pace number is 45.3, 1.8 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 41.7, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -6.5, only $475 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Justin Joly (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 2 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.8 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has Dolphins +7.5 while Pinnacle is at Bengals by 6.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.0	+366
FPI	+9.5	+376
Sagarin	+9.0	+361
Massey	+3.5	+176
Market (22 books)	+7.0	+266

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals -7.0	+100	-111	+2.6%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	-330	-314	-0.9%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.8 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +312 consensus.

Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at Titans

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Titans +7

should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 7, the Nasty Number says Texans by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Texans by 7TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 51.8 pts our side

FPI

Texans by 52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Texans by 43 pts our side

Massey

Texans by 43.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texans by 6.50.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

38TOM

Model number

402 pts over the market

Pace number

42.94.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

40.72.7 pts over the market

FPI

40.42.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 42.9, 5.3 pts over the market's 37.6; the model says 40, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -110	38 -113	+275	-365
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	38.5 +101 48¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -121	37.5 -115	+288	-352

All 26 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -110	38 -113	+275	-365
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	38.5 +101 48¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+7 -109	37.5 -113	+280	-360
BetAnything	+7 -105	38 -110	+297	-375
BetMGM	+7 -108	38 -110	+290	-375
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	38 -113	+292	-365
betPARX	+7 -109	37.5 -113	+280	-360
BetRivers	+7 -109	37.5 -113	+280	-360
BetUS	+7 -110	38 -115	+293	-365
Bovada	+7 -105	38 -110	+280	-360
Caesars	+7 -106	38 -113	+290	-380
Courtside	+7 -106	38.5 -108	+303	-364
DraftKings	+7 -108	37.5 -115	+295	-375
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 54¢ -127 all-in	36.5 56¢ -138 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -105	38 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+7 -105	37.5 -118	+295	-370
Fliff	+7.5 -125	37.5 -115	+300	-435
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+7 -105	38 -110	+292	-365
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	38 -110	+295	-391
Pinnacle	+7.5 -121	37.5 -115	+288	-352
Polymarket	+7.5 -117	38.5 +113	+300	-317
ReBet	+7.5 -120	37.5 -110	+310	-391
theScore Bet	+7 -110	38.5 -110	+270	-340

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Titans): FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -105 (0.5%) · Caesars +7 at -106 (0.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -108 (-0.2%) · TOM +7 at -110 (-0.7%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Titans to win): Kalshi, DraftKings or FanDuel +296 (1.8%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +290 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (1.0%) · TOM +275 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 37.5

The pace number is 42.9, 5.3 pts over the market's 37.6; the model says 40, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F, 31% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +333 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+212
FPI	+5.0	+201
Sagarin	+4.0	+184
Massey	+4.0	+180
Market (22 books)	+7.0	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.0	40.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+296	+270	+1.8%
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.0	-105	-107	+0.5%
Total	Over 38.0	-113	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +333 consensus.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at Packers

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Bears -1

should be Bears -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 1, the Nasty Number says Bears by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Bears by 1TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 1

FPI

Bears by 2

Sagarin

Bears by 3.5

Massey

Bears by 1.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

Model number

48.12.6 pts over the market

Pace number

46.30.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

441.5 pts under the market

FPI

45.90.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.3, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 48.1, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+1 -102	46 -105	+105	-122

All 26 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+105	-125
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
betPARX	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetRivers	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetUS	+1 -105	45.5 -110	+105	-125
Bovada	+1.5 -110	45.5 -115	+110	-130
Caesars	+1 -110	45.5 -112	+100	-120
Courtside	+1.5 -110	46.5 -105	+104	-120
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	45.5 -118	+102	-122
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 52¢ -117 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+106	-124
Fliff	+1.5 -110	45.5 -115	-105	-120
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	45.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1.5 -110	45.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1.5 -110	45.5 -115	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1 -103	45.5 -110	-101	-119
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+100	-123
Pinnacle	+1 -102	46 -105	+105	-122
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	46.5 +108	+108	-113
ReBet	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+102	-120
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	46.5 -110	+100	-120

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -1.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi -1.5 at 49¢ (-1.1%) · Caesars -1 at -110 (-1.6%) · TOM -1 at -112 (-2.0%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-2.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -119 at TOM

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (Bears to win): TOM -119 (-2.2%) · Caesars or Fanatics -120 (-2.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -121 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -124 (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 46.3, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 48.1, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Bears).

QB questionable: Caleb Williams (Bears), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Chris Brooks (RB, Packers), Kyle Monangai (RB, Bears), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 4 more.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-108
FPI	+2.0	+118
Sagarin	+3.5	+178
Massey	+1.5	+113
Market (22 books)	+1.0	+103

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -1.0	-112	-103	-2.0%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-119	-109	-2.2%
Total	Over 45.5	-113	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at Jets

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Jets -1

should be Jets -2 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 2. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Jets by 1TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Jets by 1

FPI

Jets by 1

Sagarin

Jets by 0.5

Massey

Jets by 0.5

Nasty Number

Jets by 21 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

Model number

44.14.6 pts over the market

Pace number

43.84.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

39.80.3 pts over the market

FPI

39.10.4 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 45, pace number 43.7 against a market total of 39.8, edge +0.2%). Still there: Kalshi -104, DraftKings -112, Caesars -115.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	40 -104	-138	+122

All 26 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-135	+115
BetMGM	-2 -110	40 -105	-135	+115
BetOnline.ag	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-137	+117
betPARX	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetUS	-2 -115	39.5 -105	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -110	40 -105	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -106	39.5 -115	-150	+122
Courtside	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	39.5 -112	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	39.5 52¢ -117 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	39.5 -115	-140	+115
FanDuel	-1.5 -120	39.5 -115	-134	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -110	39.5 -115	-135	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -105	39.5 -115	-130	+110
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -105	39.5 -115	-130	+110
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -105	39.5 -115	-130	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	39.5 -107	-137	+117
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	40 -110	-135	+110
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	40 -104	-138	+122
Polymarket	-2.5 -113	40.5 +113	-133	+127
ReBet	-2.5 -110	40.5 -109	-133	+113
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	39.5 -105	-130	+110

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets -1.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Jets): BetMGM -2 at -110 (-2.5%) · TOM -1 at -125 (-3.0%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -120 (-3.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Jets to win · -137 (56¢) at Kalshi

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Jets to win): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM -134 (-3.3%) · Kalshi or TOM -136 (-3.7%) · Fanatics -140 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.1%) · Caesars -150 (-6.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 39.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 45, pace number 43.7 against a market total of 39.8, edge +0.2%). Still there: Kalshi -104, DraftKings -112, Caesars -115.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F, 45% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jets).

Also out: Breece Hall (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Tylan Wallace (WR, Browns) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.9 consensus.

Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onJets by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-108
FPI	-1.0	-108
Sagarin	-0.5	-103
Massey	-0.5	-101
Market (22 books)	-1.0	-131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	39.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Jets -1.0	-125	-111	-3.0%
Moneyline	New York Jets ML	-137	-117	-3.8%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 10-05 08:06.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 39.5 here against 39.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at Patriots

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Patriots -3.5

should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5

FPI

Patriots by 3.5

Sagarin

Patriots by 4.5

Massey

Patriots by 4

Nasty Number

Patriots by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

Model number

42.92.1 pts under the market

Pace number

45.50.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

40.64.4 pts under the market

FPI

423 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.5, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.1; the model says 42.9, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-183	+153
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-4 +102	45 -109	-190	+165

All 26 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-183	+153
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -110	45 -113	-195	+160
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+165
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-200	+160
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-183	+160
betPARX	-3.5 -110	45 -113	-195	+160
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	45 -113	-195	+160
BetUS	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-185	+159
Bovada	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-3.5 -114	45 -109	-197	+163
Courtside	-3.5 -110	45.5 -103	-188	+163
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+160
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	44.5 -118	-196	+164
Fliff	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-195	+165
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-195	+165
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-195	+165
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -103	45 -107	-183	+160
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-198	+159
Pinnacle	-4 +102	45 -109	-190	+165
Polymarket	-3.5 +100	45.5 +104	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -110	45.5 -109	-193	+163
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	45.5 +100	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi -3.5 at 50¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Caesars -3.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -115 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -183 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Patriots to win): TOM -183 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -191 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or FanDuel -195 (-1.7%) · Caesars -197 (-1.9%) · BetMGM -200 (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 45

The pace number is 45.5, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.1; the model says 42.9, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.

Also out: Mack Hollins (WR, Patriots), Jalen Nailor (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-210
FPI	-3.5	-173
Sagarin	-4.5	-190
Massey	-4.0	-184
Market (22 books)	-3.5	-175

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -3.5	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-183	-181	-0.3%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at Saints

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm

Vikings -1

should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. 1.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Vikings by 1TOM, +105

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 3

FPI

Vikings by 1.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 4.5

Massey

Vikings by 5

Nasty Number

Vikings by 2.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

51.49.4 pts over the market

Pace number

45.13.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

41.30.7 pts under the market

FPI

393 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 51.5, pace number 45 against a market total of 41.9, edge +1.3%). Still there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, DraftKings -112.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 +105	42 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	41.5	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2 +101	42 +100	+124	-139

All 26 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 +105	42 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	41.5	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
BetMGM	+2.5 -108	41.5 -108	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+1 +105	42 -110	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetUS	+1 +105	41.5 -110	+120	-140
Bovada	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -110	41.5 -113	+118	-139
Courtside	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -112	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 48¢ -100 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+1.5 -102	42.5 -104	+116	-134
Fliff	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+115	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+115	-135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+115	-135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+115	-135
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -107	42 -107	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+117	-143
Pinnacle	+2 +101	42 +100	+124	-139
Polymarket	+2.5 -104	41.5 -104	—	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	+119	-140
theScore Bet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -1.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): TOM -1 at -125 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -120 (-1.0%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (-1.1%) · Caesars -2.5 at -109 (-1.5%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -139 at Caesars

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel -134 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 56¢ (-1.4%) · Caesars or Fanatics -139 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -142 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions or BetMGM -144 (57¢ on the app) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 41.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 51.5, pace number 45 against a market total of 41.9, edge +1.3%). Still there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, DraftKings -112.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 41.5, only $3 available; Minnesota Vikings -2.5, only $416 available; Under 41.5, only $57 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Christian Darrisaw (OT, Vikings), Jeremiah Wright (G, Saints), Charles Demmings (CB, Vikings) and 2 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.0	+141
FPI	+1.5	+110
Sagarin	+4.5	+190
Massey	+5.0	+213
Market (22 books)	+1.0	+130

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	40.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -1.0	-125	-122	-0.6%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-139	-129	-1.9%
Total	Under 42.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at Cardinals

NFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm

Lions -5.5

should be Lions -5.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Lions by 5.5TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 6.5

FPI

Lions by 5.5

Sagarin

Lions by 6.5

Massey

Lions by 2.5

Nasty Number

Lions by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

Model number

50.34.2 pts under the market

Pace number

52.42.1 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

55.91.4 pts over the market

FPI

51.33.2 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.3, pace number 52.4 against a market total of 54.5, edge +1.1%). Still there: DraftKings -105, Caesars -110, BetMGM -110.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+5.5 -108	54.5 -110	+205	-255
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -103 49¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -105	54.5 -104	+214	-251

All 26 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+5.5 -108	54.5 -110	+205	-255
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -103 49¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetAnything	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-240
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	54.5 -108	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -108	54.5 -110	+211	-255
betPARX	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetRivers	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetUS	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+215	-255
Bovada	+5.5 -110	54.5 -105	+210	-250
Caesars	+5.5 -114	54.5 -109	+205	-250
Courtside	+5.5 -110	54.5 -113	+215	-252
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	54.5 -115	+210	-258
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-250
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	54.5 -108	+198	-245
Fliff	+5.5 -115	54.5 -110	+210	-285
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+210	-260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+210	-260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+210	-260
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -103	54.5 -107	+211	-255
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+192	-242
Pinnacle	+5.5 -105	54.5 -104	+214	-251
Polymarket	+5.5 +100	54.5 +100	+223	-233
ReBet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+210	-255
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -115	+215	-260

Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -5.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): Caesars or FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -5.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi or TOM -5.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -255 at TOM

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Lions to win): FanDuel -245 (-2.0%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics -250 (-2.4%) · TOM -255 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -258 (-3.1%) · Kalshi 71¢ (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Under 54.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.3, pace number 52.4 against a market total of 54.5, edge +1.1%). Still there: DraftKings -105, Caesars -110, BetMGM -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Cade Mays (C, Lions), Andrew Wingard (S, Cardinals), Brian Branch (S, Lions).

Full detail

We settle onLions by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.5	+259
FPI	+5.5	+220
Sagarin	+6.5	+250
Massey	+2.5	+127
Market (22 books)	+5.5	+214

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	53.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -5.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-255	-223	-2.8%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Oct 12

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at Rams

NFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pm

Bills +3

should be Bills +3 at TOM

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 3TOM, -118

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

FPI

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

Massey

Rams by 12 pts our side

Nasty Number

Rams by 30.2 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Bills. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

Model number

57.22.7 pts over the market

Pace number

513.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

53.80.7 pts under the market

FPI

50.83.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 51, 3.5 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 57.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	54.5 -107 50¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3 -114	54.5 -101	-173	+152

All 26 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	54.5 -107 50¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 +102	54.5 -108	-167	+135
BetAnything	-3 -120	54.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3 -125	54.5 -108	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 +102	54.5 -108	-167	+135
BetRivers	-3 -121	54.5 -108	-167	+135
BetUS	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-3 -120	54 -115	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -102	54.5 -112	-176	+147
Courtside	-3.5 -105	54.5 -116	-171	+148
DraftKings	-3 -120	54.5 -118	-175	+145
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -104	54.5 -110	-178	+150
Fliff	-3.5 +105	54.5 -110	-170	+135
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-175	+145
LowVig.ag	-3 -115	54.5 -107	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	54.5 -110	-177	+138
Pinnacle	-3 -114	54.5 -101	-173	+152
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	54.5 +100	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	54.5 -110	-168	+142
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-170	+145

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills +3.0 · -102 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at +100 (1.5%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.1%) · TOM +3 at -102 (1.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · +145 (39¢) at Kalshi

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Bills to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +150 (1.5%) · Caesars +147 (1.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM +146 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 39¢ on the app (+144 all-in) (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 51, 3.5 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 57.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills +3.0 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Bills, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $93 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-114
FPI	-1.5	-114
Sagarin	-1.5	-114
Massey	-1.0	-105
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	52.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bills +3.0	-102	-106	+1.0%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	+145	+141	+0.7%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 10-05 08:06; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Tue Oct 13

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersDelaware at Middle Tennessee

CFB Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm

Delaware +1.5

should be Delaware PK · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Middle Tennessee →

Market

Middle Tennessee by 1.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game

FPI

Delaware by 4

Sagarin

Delaware by 5.5

Massey

Middle Tennessee by 2

Nasty Number

a pick'em1.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

Model number

50.22.7 pts over the market

Pace number

49.41.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.85.3 pts over the market

Massey

51.23.7 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.6, pace number 49.4, ratings 50.1 against a market total of 46.5, edge +0.2%). The number is gone. Best now Over 47.5 at FanDuel: the total has moved 1 pt our way. Don't chase.

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Delaware ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Delaware ML
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	47.5 -106	-118	-102
Fliff	—	47.5 -115	—	—
ReBet	-1.5 -111	47.5 -109	-125	-106

Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Delaware): FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (0.1%).

Not Nasty

Delaware to win · -104

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Delaware to win): FanDuel -102 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

Over 46.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -1.5, only $52 available; Delaware Blue Hens +1.5, only $52 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle ona pick'em30% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game
FPI	+4.0	+168
Sagarin	+5.5	+195
Massey	-2.0	-114
Market (3 books)	-1.5	-108

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens +1.5	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	-104	-100	-1.0%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksFlorida International at Jacksonville State

CFB Tue 13 Oct, 7:00pm

Jacksonville State -3

should be Jacksonville State -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -2

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

Massey

Jacksonville State by 5.52.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 3.50.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Jacksonville State. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

50.54.7 pts over the market

Pace number

45.10.7 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

44.90.9 pts under the market

Massey

45.20.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.1, 0.7 pts under the market's 45.8; the model says 50.5, 4.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Florida International ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Florida International ML
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	45.5 -112	-156	+130
Fliff	—	45.5 -120	-160	+125
Polymarket	—	—	—	+122
ReBet	-2.5 -128	46.5 -114	-159	+119

Marked: best for Jacksonville State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jacksonville State -3.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jacksonville State): FanDuel -3.5 at -105 (-0.6%).

Not Nasty

Jacksonville State to win · -159

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Jacksonville State to win): FanDuel -156 (1.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 46

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.5, only $25 available; Florida International Panthers +3.5, only $53 available; Over 46.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
Massey	-5.5	-193
Market (3 books)	-3.0	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.0	-110	-120	+2.1%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	-159	-165	+0.9%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 10-08 13:15.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Oct 15

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Colorado State Rams at Texas State BobcatsColorado State at Texas State

CFB Thu 15 Oct, 7:00pm

Texas State -12.5

should be Texas State -12 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore Texas State →

Market

Texas State by 12.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game

FPI

Texas State by 10.5

Sagarin

Texas State by 11

Massey

Texas State by 9.5

Nasty Number

Texas State by 120.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

65.5

Model number

65.6on the market

Pace number

66.20.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

75.910.4 pts over the market

Massey

70.55 pts over the market

The pace number is 66.2, 0.7 pts over the market's 65.5; the model says 65.6, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Colorado State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Colorado State ML
FanDuel	-11.5 -106	65.5 -112	-450	+340
Fliff	—	65.5 -120	-465	+335
Polymarket	—	—	-456	—
ReBet	-13.5 -111	65.5 -116	-526	+330

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +12.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +11.5 at -114 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +335

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +340 (-2.9%).

Off the band

The total · 65.5

The pace number is 66.2, 0.7 pts over the market's 65.5; the model says 65.6, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas State Bobcats -11.5, only $5 available; Colorado State Rams +11.5, only $31 available; Over 65.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-369
Sagarin	-11.0	-382
Massey	-9.5	-310
Market (3 books)	-12.5	-421

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	65.5	73.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado State Rams +12.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+335	+405	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 65.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 2.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosSeahawks at Broncos

NFL Thu 15 Oct, 7:15pm

Seahawks -2

should be Seahawks -2 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Seahawks by 2

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 2

FPI

Seahawks by 1.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1.5

Massey

Seahawks by 3.5

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

Model number

384.4 pts under the market

Pace number

45.63.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

43.20.9 pts over the market

FPI

40.71.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.6, 3.2 pts over the market's 42.3; the model says 38, 4.4 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 42.5 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	+2.5	41.5 -116 52¢	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	+2.5	41.5 -116 52¢	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetUS	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+112	-132
Courtside	+1.5 -108	42.5 -108	+104	-120
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-122
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	42.5 -105	+118	-138
Fliff	+2.5 -115	42.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	+2 -105	42 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	+108	-137
Polymarket	—	—	+113	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+110	-134

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): Caesars or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.8%).

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +118 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Broncos to win): FanDuel +118 (-0.3%) · Caesars +112 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-2.2%) · DraftKings +102 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-6.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 42.5

The pace number is 45.6, 3.2 pts over the market's 42.3; the model says 38, 4.4 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 63°F, 25% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $75 available; Denver Broncos +2.5, only $137 available; Seattle Seahawks -2.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+120
FPI	+1.5	+113
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	+3.5	+171
Market (13 books)	+2.0	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +2.5	-110	-105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+118	+119	-0.3%
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Oct 17

11 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsFlorida at Texas

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Texas -8.5

should be Texas -10 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 9.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida's last game

FPI

Texas by 15

Sagarin

Texas by 9

Massey

Texas by 11

Nasty Number

Texas by 100.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

49.25 pts under the market

Pace number

550.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.71.5 pts over the market

Massey

54.1on the market

The pace number is 55, 0.8 pts over the market's 54.2; the model says 49.2, 5 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 8 books

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Florida ML
Bally Bet	-9.5 -112	54.5 -113	-360	+275
betPARX	-9.5 -112	54.5 -113	-360	+275
BetRivers	-9.5 -113	54.5 -114	-375	+275
Courtside	-9.5 -103	53.5 -108	-331	+277
DraftKings	-9.5 -105	53.5 -110	-340	+270
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
FanDuel	-8.5 -106	55.5 -110	-320	+255
Fliff	-9.5 -115	53.5 -115	-350	+265

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -8.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas): FanDuel -8.5 at -106 (0.5%) · DraftKings -9.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -320 at FanDuel

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Texas to win): FanDuel -320 (0.4%) · DraftKings -340 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 78¢ on the app (-401 all-in) (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 54

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas -8.5 · -106 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns ML, only $123 available; Florida Gators ML, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida's last game
FPI	-15.0	-544
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-11.0	-375
Market (7 books)	-9.5	-316

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	54.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Longhorns -8.5	-106	-108	+0.5%
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-320	-328	+0.4%
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana HoosiersOhio State at Indiana

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Indiana +3

should be Indiana +2 · getting 1 pt

A Little Nasty · Indiana, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Ohio State by 3

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 0.52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em2.8 pts our side

Massey

Ohio State by 0.52.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 20.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Indiana. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

44.54.3 pts under the market

Pace number

52.53.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.16.4 pts over the market

Massey

51.32.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.5, 3.7 pts over the market's 48.8; the model says 44.5, 4.3 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Ohio State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢

All 9 books

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Ohio State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢
Bally Bet	+3 -115	48.5 -114	+123	-148
betPARX	+3 -115	48.5 -114	+123	-148
BetRivers	+3 -117	48.5 -115	+120	-150
Courtside	+2.5 -103	48.5 -108	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
FanDuel	+3.5 -134	49.5 -110	+116	-140
Fliff	+2.5 -110	49.5 -115	+115	-145

Marked: best for Indiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana +3.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Indiana): FanDuel +3.5 at -134 (0.5%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.2%).

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · +120 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Indiana to win): DraftKings +120 (0.6%) · FanDuel +116 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

The total · 49

The pace number is 52.5, 3.7 pts over the market's 48.8; the model says 44.5, 4.3 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Indiana +3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $157 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	+0.5	+102
Market (7 books)	+3.0	+132

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers +3.0	-110	-120	+2.3%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	+120	+117	+0.6%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State WildcatsKansas at Kansas State

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Kansas +9

should be Kansas +8 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 9

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game

FPI

Kansas State by 6.5

Sagarin

Kansas State by 4.5

Massey

Kansas State by 8.5

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 80.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

Model number

56.40.9 pts over the market

Pace number

52.23.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.20.3 pts under the market

Massey

56.91.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.2, 3.3 pts under the market's 55.5; the model says 56.4, 0.9 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Kansas ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Kansas ML
Bally Bet	-8 -110	55.5 -114	-315	+250
betPARX	-8 -110	55.5 -114	-315	+250
BetRivers	-8 -112	55.5 -115	-335	+250
Courtside	-9.5 -108	55.5 -108	-335	+282
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	55.5 -110	-345	+275
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 58¢ -150 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
Fliff	-9.5 -115	55.5 -120	-335	+255

Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas +9.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kansas): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.1%).

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +275 at DraftKings

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Kansas to win): DraftKings +275 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 55.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $1 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game
FPI	-6.5	-212
Sagarin	-4.5	-182
Massey	-8.5	-304
Market (6 books)	-9.0	-301

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	56.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +9.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+275	+290	-1.0%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersMississippi State at LSU

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

LSU -12

should be LSU -12 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 12

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State's last game

FPI

LSU by 12.5

Sagarin

LSU by 11

Massey

LSU by 10

Nasty Number

LSU by 120.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

Model number

61.72.1 pts over the market

Pace number

56.33.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.93.7 pts under the market

Massey

59.20.4 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.3, 3.3 pts under the market's 59.6; the model says 61.7, 2.1 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Mississippi State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 9 books

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Mississippi State ML
Bally Bet	-12 -109	59.5 -112	-500	+370
betPARX	-12 -109	59.5 -112	-500	+370
BetRivers	-12 -110	59.5 -113	-530	+360
Courtside	-12.5 -103	59.5 -108	-440	+360
DraftKings	-12.5 -105	59.5 -110	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 54¢ -127 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
FanDuel	-11.5 -115	59.5 -115	-480	+365
Fliff	-12.5 -110	59.5 -120	-460	+335
ReBet	-12.5 -116	60.5 -111	-526	+330

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State +12.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State): FanDuel +11.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.3%).

Not Nasty

Mississippi State to win · +360

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win): FanDuel +365 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +350 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-6.1%).

Off the band

The total · 59.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers ML, only $125 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State's last game
FPI	-12.5	-423
Sagarin	-11.0	-377
Massey	-10.0	-336
Market (8 books)	-12.0	-434

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	57.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Mississippi State Bulldogs ML	+360	+402	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan WolverinesPenn State at Michigan

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Penn State +5.5

should be Penn State +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 5.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Michigan by 2.5

Massey

Michigan by 0.5

Nasty Number

Michigan by 4.51.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

Model number

45.21.7 pts over the market

Pace number

46.63.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

38.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

45.31.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.6, 3.1 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 45.2, 1.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

Penn State +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · +175

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Penn State to win): DraftKings +180 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-3.0%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-2.5	-128
Massey	-0.5	+100
Market (6 books)	-5.5	-199

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	+175	+177	-0.3%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon DucksNebraska at Oregon

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Oregon -12.5

should be Oregon -12.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 12.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska's last game

FPI

Oregon by 8

Sagarin

Oregon by 13

Massey

Oregon by 13.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 12.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

Model number

56.81.7 pts under the market

Pace number

56.71.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.61.1 pts over the market

Massey

57.31.2 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.7, 1.8 pts under the market's 58.5; the model says 56.8, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

Oregon -12.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings -12.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.9%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -560

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -520 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 85¢ on the app (-670 all-in) (-6.2%).

Off the band

The total · 58.5

The pace number is 56.7, 1.8 pts under the market's 58.5; the model says 56.8, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska's last game
FPI	-8.0	-284
Sagarin	-13.0	-430
Massey	-13.5	-441
Market (6 books)	-12.5	-488

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	58.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -12.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-560	-420	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA BruinsWisconsin at UCLA

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

UCLA -3.5

should be UCLA -3.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 3.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin's last game

FPI

UCLA by 3

Sagarin

UCLA by 3

Massey

UCLA by 3

Nasty Number

UCLA by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

Model number

511.7 pts over the market

Pace number

53.74.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.41.9 pts under the market

Massey

48.60.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 53.7, 4.3 pts over the market's 49.3; the model says 51, 1.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Wisconsin ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Wisconsin ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -106	49.5 -113	-165	+133
betPARX	-3.5 -106	49.5 -113	-165	+133
BetRivers	-3.5 -107	49.5 -114	-167	+133
Courtside	-3.5 -108	49.5 -108	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fliff	-3.5 -115	48.5 -115	-165	+130

Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wisconsin +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wisconsin): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

Wisconsin to win · +133

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Wisconsin to win): DraftKings +136 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

The total · 49.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins ML, only $3 available; Wisconsin Badgers ML, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin's last game
FPI	-3.0	-131
Sagarin	-3.0	-130
Massey	-3.0	-149
Market (6 books)	-3.5	-149

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wisconsin Badgers +3.5	-110	-104	-1.3%
Moneyline	Wisconsin Badgers ML	+133	+154	-3.6%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee VolunteersAlabama at Tennessee

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Alabama -5

should be Alabama -5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Alabama by 5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee's last game

FPI

Alabama by 5.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 3

Massey

Alabama by 5.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

Model number

58.31.8 pts over the market

Pace number

58.52 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.12.6 pts over the market

Massey

61.75.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 58.5, 2 pts over the market's 56.5; the model says 58.3, 1.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	+181 34¢	—

All 9 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	+181 34¢	—
Bally Bet	+5.5 -113	56.5 -113	+175	-215
betPARX	+5.5 -113	56.5 -113	+175	-215
BetRivers	+5.5 -113	56.5 -114	+165	-215
Courtside	+4.5 -103	56.5 -108	+163	-188
DraftKings	+4.5 -105	56.5 -110	+160	-192
DraftKings Predictions	+4.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
FanDuel	+5.5 -105	56.5 -110	+184	-225
Fliff	+4.5 -110	56.5 -120	+165	-215

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -5.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings -4.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -192 at DraftKings

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -192 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -225 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 68¢ on the app (-234 all-in) (-4.8%).

Not Nasty

The total · 56.5

The pace number is 58.5, 2 pts over the market's 56.5; the model says 58.3, 1.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee's last game
FPI	+5.5	+192
Sagarin	+3.0	+131
Massey	+5.5	+192
Market (7 books)	+5.0	+191

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	60.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -5.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-192	-188	-0.5%
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Auburn Tigers at Georgia BulldogsAuburn at Georgia

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Georgia -18.5

should be Georgia -18.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 18.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia's last game

FPI

Georgia by 18

Sagarin

Georgia by 13.5

Massey

Georgia by 18

Nasty Number

Georgia by 18.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

49.80.3 pts under the market

Pace number

54.84.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.43.6 pts under the market

Massey

50.40.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.8, 4.8 pts over the market's 50.1; the model says 49.8, 0.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1236 92¢	—

All 9 books

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1236 92¢	—
Bally Bet	-18.5 -110	50.5 -113	-1430	+800
betPARX	-18.5 -110	50.5 -113	-1430	+800
BetRivers	-18.5 -112	50.5 -114	-1430	+700
Courtside	-18.5 -108	49.5 -108	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-18.5 -110	49.5 -110	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	-18.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	95¢ -3233 all-in	12¢ +614 all-in
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1300	+760
Fliff	-18.5 -115	49.5 -115	-1430	+765

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +18.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Auburn): DraftKings or FanDuel +18.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +18.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.6%).

Blowout line

Auburn to win · +782

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Auburn to win): DraftKings +850 (0.8%) · FanDuel +760 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-2.6%).

Off the band

The total · 50

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 18.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia's last game
FPI	-18.0	-765
Sagarin	-13.5	-439
Massey	-18.0	-738
Market (7 books)	-18.5	-1191

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers +18.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	+782	+780	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsNorth Carolina at Duke

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Duke -4.5

should be Duke -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Duke →

Market

Duke by 4.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina's last game

FPI

Duke by 5.5

Sagarin

Duke by 4

Massey

Duke by 9

Nasty Number

Duke by 50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

Model number

46.6on the market

Pace number

48.41.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.7on the market

Massey

49.42.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.4, 1.9 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.6, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	North Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	North Carolina ML
Bally Bet	-5 -108	46.5 -113	-200	+160
betPARX	-5 -108	46.5 -113	-200	+160
BetRivers	-4.5 -114	46.5 -114	-200	+160
Courtside	-4.5 -108	46.5 -108	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 55¢ -132 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fliff	-4.5 -120	46.5 -120	-200	+155

Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Duke): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

Duke to win · -185 at DraftKings

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Duke to win): DraftKings -185 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 46.5

The pace number is 48.4, 1.9 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.6, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils ML, only $65 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $288 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina's last game
FPI	-5.5	-197
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-9.0	-308
Market (6 books)	-4.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	48.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils -4.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	-185	-184	-0.1%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsMissouri at Ole Miss

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Missouri +6.5

should be Missouri +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

A Little Nasty · Missouri, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Ole Miss →

Market

Ole Miss by 6.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Missouri's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 24.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 33.6 pts our side

Massey

Ole Miss by 81.3 pts against us

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 5.50.8 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Missouri. Massey at Ole Miss by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

Model number

57.7on the market

Pace number

56.61 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.11.5 pts over the market

Massey

56.80.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.6, 1 pt under the market's 57.6; the model says 57.7, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	—	—	-250 70¢	—

All 9 books

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	—	—	-250 70¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -114	57.5 -114	-245	+195
betPARX	-6.5 -114	57.5 -114	-245	+195
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	57.5 -115	-250	+195
Courtside	-6.5 -108	57.5 -108	-225	+194
DraftKings	-6.5 -110	57.5 -110	-230	+190
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 54¢ -127 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
FanDuel	-6.5 -134	58.5 -115	-275	+220
Fliff	-6.5 -120	57.5 -120	-260	+200

Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +6.5 · +110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 48 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Missouri): FanDuel +6.5 at +110 (4.2%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.1%).

A Little Nasty

Missouri to win · +220 at FanDuel

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Missouri to win): FanDuel +220 (2.4%) · DraftKings +190 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 35¢ on the app (+171 all-in) (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 57.5

The pace number is 56.6, 1 pt under the market's 57.6; the model says 57.7, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +6.5 · +110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Missouri's last game
FPI	-2.0	-114
Sagarin	-3.0	-136
Massey	-8.0	-282
Market (7 books)	-6.5	-225

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	58.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers +6.5	+110	-108	+4.2%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	+220	+197	+2.4%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 9-11-1, -2.7u · Nasty Dogs 1-1, +0.9u · +0.1 pts vs the close on 21 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks9-11-1-2.69 units · -13% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-1+0.92 units · +46% ROI

Vs the close+0.1 ptsbeat the close on 12 of 23 posted picks

Open5calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks9-11-145%-2.69 units21 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 21. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostNew Mexico State +7.0New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers3-22-1.00

Sep 29 to Oct 5

5-4-1 · +0.63 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

LostCincinnati +7.0Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats7-34-1.00

WonUCF +11.5UCF Knights at Houston Cougars17-27+0.93

WonJames Madison -15.5Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes17-45+0.91

PushOhio -3.0Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes13-10+0.00

LostLouisiana -6.0Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns20-23-1.00

LostMiami (OH) -10.0Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks24-20-1.00

WonSan Diego State +4.5Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs29-31+0.94

WonSouth Alabama -12.5UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars35-52+0.91

LostSouth Florida -5.5Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls17-13-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostWashington Commanders MLIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders30-13-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

3-3 · -0.19 units

WonCleveland Browns +3.0Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

WonBaylor +3.5Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils55-19+0.91

LostIllinois -9.5Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini24-17-1.00

LostMassachusetts -5.0Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen38-14-1.00

LostPhiladelphia Eagles +3.5Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles24-20-1.00

WonSan Francisco 49ers -3.0Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers14-24+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty30-3248%-4.67 units62 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 28 of 45. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

2-0 · +2.18 units

WonKennesaw State +2.5Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls27-26+1.08

WonWestern Kentucky MLMissouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers13-34+1.10

Sep 29 to Oct 5

7-3 · +3.52 units

WonTulsa +3.0North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

LostOver 45.5Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons9-14-1.00

LostUnder 61.0Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams56-26-1.00

WonUnder 47.0Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes31-14+0.91

WonOver 46.5Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29-31+0.91

WonOver 56.5Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack28-31+0.91

LostOver 50.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies7-34-1.00

WonUNLV +1.5California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels31-39+0.86

WonFresno State +2.5Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars26-6+0.91

WonJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals22-17+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Its own record, one unit a total, graded at the number, price and book each one posted at. Not counted in the Nasty Pick record. Nothing graded yet. 4 posted and still to play.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	9-11-1	45.0%	-2.7 u
Nasty Dog	1-1	50.0%	+0.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	7-7	50.0%	-0.5 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	30-32	48.4%	-4.7 u
Not Nasty	237 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-09 16:31.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 204 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.12	295
SP+	11.23	227
FPI	11.29	232
Massey	11.31	175
Sagarin	12.39	285

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.03	178
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.02	175
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.00	173
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.04	204

The line archive, 295 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 154 times, against it 102, and sat still 39. Our side taken at the open finished 0.67 points better than the close on average over 280 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.37, our raw ratings number by 12.53, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.84, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.

The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-3, -1.15 units, -1.1 pts vs the close on 5.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 48 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.56	48
The market	9.56	65
Sagarin	9.90	65
nfelo	10.03	64
FPI	10.04	49

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.01	47
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.01	48
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.04	48
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	47

The line archive, 65 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 10. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 60 games. The close misses the final by 9.78, the open by 9.83, our raw ratings number by 10.01, Pinnacle's close by 9.79. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.93, Polymarket 8.82, Bally Bet 9.31.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.

The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
ratings 0%	307	11.72	11.71	0-0
ratings 5%	307	11.65	11.71	0-0
ratings 15%	307	11.51	11.71	0-0
ratings 45%	307	11.20	11.71	0-0
Sagarin half a vote	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
Sagarin no vote	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
FPI a vote and a half	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
Massey a vote and a half	307	11.34	11.71	0-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

29 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.

Closing line value

+0.01Sides: pts vs close, 34 bets, beat it 53%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
UCF at Oklahoma State	Under	52.1	52.5	-0.4	no call
UConn at Temple	Over	52.8	54.5	+1.7	no call
USC at Penn State	Over	55.2	55	-0.2	no call
Virginia Tech at California	California Golden +9.5	9.5	9	+0.5	no call
Wake Forest at NC State	Wake Forest Demon -2.9	-2.9	-4	+1.1	no call
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins	Over	42	42	+0.0	no call
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals	Arizona +5	5	5.5	-0.5	no call
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +6.5	6.5	7	-0.5	same side
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints	Under	42	42	+0.0	no call
New York Giants at Washington Commanders	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 246 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	183	13.6	59-66 (47%)	38-36 (51%)
Massey	185	13.1	40-45 (47%)	16-24 (40%)
The blend	188	13.1	43-47 (48%)	19-25 (43%)

NFL, 55 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	51	11.1	13-19 (41%)	4-8 (33%)
FPI	48	10.4	11-5 (69%)	7-2 (78%)
The blend	51	10.3	11-8 (58%)	3-3 (50%)

The detailed numbers

+0.01Avg points vs close

53%Beat the close

We said	Bets	Predicted	Actual
55-60%	21	56%	48%

The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 21 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

65 priced · 4 Nasty Picks · 8 a little nasty · 5 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Tue · audit clean

Not every source loaded: SP+ hasn't changed in 12 days, so it may be stale at the source. Anything that depends on those is missing from the board rather than guessed at. 15 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 15 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 80 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.

What's changed since 4:32pm

OffNorth Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels dropped off. It was UNLV Rebels ML.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.7Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irishtoward Notre Dame Fighting Irishwith the public
→ 3.0Colorado State Rams at Texas State Bobcatstoward Texas State Bobcatswith the public
→ 2.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue Boilermakerstoward Purdue Boilermakersagainst the public
→ 1.9Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Marshall Thundering Herdwith the public
→ 1.0Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecockstoward Jacksonville State Gamecockswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.78Points off per game at that weight

10.78The market on its own

252Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 4%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 252 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
nfelo	64	10.03
The market	360	10.84
Massey	223	10.94
FPI	281	11.07
SP+	227	11.23
Sagarin	350	11.93

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	158-150	51%
1.5 to 3.0	7-10	41%
3.0 to 5.0	10-12	45%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 917889 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.32 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	445	1.59
FanDuel	476	1.54
betPARX	256	1.52
ReBet	251	1.51
Bally Bet	256	1.51
Kalshi	264	1.51
BetRivers	464	1.48
LowVig.ag	424	1.42
Courtside	220	1.42
BetOnline.ag	434	1.41
MyBookie.ag	362	1.38
Hard Rock Bet	256	1.30
BetMGM	431	1.28
Fanatics	401	1.26
theScore Bet	253	1.23
BetUS	363	1.21
Caesars	384	1.18
Bovada	434	1.17
Pinnacle	433	1.14
TOM	417	1.12
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	62	1.10
Polymarket	110	1.07
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	62	1.06
BetAnything	237	1.02
Fliff	250	0.96

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 5 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ unchanged for 11 days
Sagarin updated 5 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
nfelo updated 2 days ago

A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Fri Oct 9

1. UCF Knights +10.5  -108  <- nastiest
   [College] UCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys, tomorrow 11:00am
   we make it -126, edge +4%

2. Texas A&M Aggies +3.5  -110
   [College] Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers, tomorrow 11:00am
   we make it -124, edge +3%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.