Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Updated Mon 4:45 pm · TOM just now · 97 priced · 1 Nasty Pick · 25 a little nasty · 5 damn near nasty

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty our side, but too thin to betNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Arizona State at Texas A&MTexas A&M -14.5-104+3.1%sat 11:00 am

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

UNLV at North TexasOver 57should be 58.6 · getting 1.6 ptssat 2:45 pm Bowling Green at NebraskaUnder 52.5should be 50.8 · getting 1.7 ptssat 6:00 pm Louisiana Tech at LSUUnder 55.5should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 ptssat 6:30 pm Southern Miss at AuburnUnder 54.5should be 52.8 · getting 1.7 ptssat 6:45 pm Arkansas at UtahOver 56.5should be 58.4 · getting 1.9 ptssat 9:15 pm San Diego State at UCLASan Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 ptsA littlesat 6:15 pma pick at +12.5

Buck's Take

Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.

Worth a look: 5 totals, 2 over and 3 under, 3 of them in blowout games where the total is mostly garbage time. These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.

Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, the ratings in agreement, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Candidates have the agreement but not the rest, and the all-sources rule itself is still being graded (0 totals and 0 sides so far). Stale numbers are proven and switch on inside 48 hours.

Half Nasty (betting anyway): Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.5 (the models say 44) and UNLV at North Texas, Over 57 (the models say 65).

Today

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, SMU at Florida State

GameThe call

SMU Mustangs at Florida State SeminolesSMU at Florida State

CFB 6:30 pm

Under 55

should be 54.4 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says SMU by 2.5, we say SMU by 2. Nothing there.

SMU sideFlorida State side

Market

+2.5

SP+

+1.0

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+7.0

We say

+2.0

	Florida State spread	Total (over)	Florida State ML	SMU ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	55 -105	+123	-148
Pinnacle	+3 -115	54.5 -111	+127	-143

Florida State +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Florida State to win · +123 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. That's 2.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 29% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketSMU by 2.5the number to beat

SP+SMU by 11.7 apart

FPISMU by 11.5 apart

SagarinSMU by 74.7 apart

We settle onSMU by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.0	+109
FPI	+1.0	+111
Sagarin	+7.0	+215
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +2.5	+100	+105	-1.1%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+123	+126	-0.6%
Total	Under 55.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameThe call

New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at Seahawks

NFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 3.5, our data says Seahawks by 3.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-4.5

FPI

-4.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	44.5 -105	-179	+156

Seahawks -3.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -180

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Also out: Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots).

Full detail

The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart

FPISeahawks by 40.6 apart

SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-175
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-4.0	-162
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.5	-110	+111	-4.9%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-180	-155	-3.4%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameThe call

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at Rams

NFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral

49ers to win

our data says 40 in 100 · +164 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	49ers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	48.5 +101 48¢	-200 65¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -104	48 -111	-197	+171

49ers +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +164

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

49ers to win · +164. A price bet: 49ers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Also out: Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Alex Johnson (CB, Rams) and 1 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart

FPIRams by 30.6 apart

SagarinRams by 40.6 apart

We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-117
FPI	-3.0	-142
Sagarin	-4.0	-165
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-176

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+164	+151	+2.0%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at Miami

CFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Florida A&M ML
Kalshi	—	60.5	—	—

Opened -53.5, now -54.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Miami).

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $335 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)	-54.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.6.

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Rutgers at Boston College

GameThe call

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston College

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 53.5

should be 54.4 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Rutgers too: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 2, but at -115 that's too thin.

Rutgers sideBoston College side

Market

-3.5

SP+

+3.0

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

+5.0

We say

-2.0

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Rutgers ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	53.5 -110	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -102	54.5 -106	-170	+144

Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Rutgers to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.

Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart

FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart

SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart

We settle onBoston College by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+137
FPI	-6.5	-198
Sagarin	+5.0	+173
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5	-115	-127	+2.5%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+135	+125	+1.8%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at Kansas

CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

Over 50

should be 50.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 6. Nothing there.

Missouri sideKansas side

Market

+5.0

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+8.5

We say

+6.0

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Missouri ML
TOM	+5 -110	50 -110	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5	50.5 -103 49¢	+189 33¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+6 -118	50 -109	+176	-212

Missouri -5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Missouri to win · -210 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. That's 2.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +7.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas).

Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks +5.5, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMissouri by 5the number to beat

SP+Missouri by 104.9 apart

FPIMissouri by 41 apart

SagarinMissouri by 8.53.5 apart

We settle onMissouri by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+292
FPI	+4.0	+152
Sagarin	+8.5	+250
Market (12 books)	+5.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers -5.0	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	-210	-190	-2.2%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at Louisville

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Villanova ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Opened -35.5, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Louisville).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $450 available; Under 56.5, only $146 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (4 books)	-36.5	-2475

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Louisville Cardinals since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 0.5.

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC State

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-30.5	-2963

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at Virginia

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -43.5, now -44.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Virginia).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (4 books)	-44.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

74 gamesBest: Texas A&M -14.5, Nasty Pick

GameThe call

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&M

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Texas A&M -14.5

should be Texas A&M -15.5 · getting 1 pt · -104 at TOM

Nasty Pick

Nasty Pick. Take Texas A&M -14.5 at -104 at TOM. Market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15.5.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side

Market

-14.5

SP+

-18.0

FPI

-17.5

Sagarin

-18.0

We say

-15.5

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Arizona State ML
TOM	-14.5 -104	51.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-14.5 +100	51.5 -106	-664	+449

Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

The play

Texas A&M to win · -677 at TOM

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

Full detail

The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat

SP+Texas A&M by 183.7 apart

FPITexas A&M by 17.52.9 apart

SagarinTexas A&M by 183.7 apart

We settle onTexas A&M by 15.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.0	-809
FPI	-17.5	-732
Sagarin	-18.0	-806
Market (12 books)	-14.5	-490

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -14.5	-104	-118	+3.1%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-677	-555	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm

Over 57

should be 58.6 · getting 1.6 pts at TOM · was 57.5

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Over 57: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 58.6, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side

Market

+4.0

SP+

+13.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+4.0

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	UNLV ML
TOM	+4 -116	57 -110	+157	-187
Kalshi	+3.5	57.5 -112 51¢	+166 36¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+4 -106	57 -109	+158	-188

North Texas +4.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

North Texas to win · +157 at TOM

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

North Texas to win · +157 at TOM. A price bet: North Texas loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green +3.5, only $496 available; Under 57.5, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketUNLV by 4the number to beat

SP+UNLV by 139 apart

FPIUNLV by 40.2 apart

SagarinUNLV by 31 apart

We settle onUNLV by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+420
FPI	+4.0	+149
Sagarin	+3.0	+138
Market (12 books)	+4.0	+164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	64.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	+157	+152	+0.8%
Spread	North Texas Mean Green +4.0	-116	-110	-1.3%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Under 52.5

should be 50.8 · getting 1.7 pts at TOM

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Under 52.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 50.8, 1.7 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-26.5

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-33.5

We say

-28.0

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-28.5 -115	52.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	51.5 -112 51¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-29 -108	52 -109	—	—

Bowling Green +28.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +2400 at TOM

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 8.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 52.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $333 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.0 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat

SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart

FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart

SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart

We settle onNebraska by 2821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.5	-2684
FPI	-24.5	-2042
Sagarin	-33.5	-8590
Market (12 books)	-28.5	-2074

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-105	+141	-9.7%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2400	+3449	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-112	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.0 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 pts at TOM

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Under 55.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 53.4, 2.1 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side

Market

-35.0

SP+

-31.5

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-34.0

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Louisiana Tech ML
TOM	-35 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-34 -116	55.5 -114	—	—

Louisiana Tech +35.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +4000 at TOM

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -31.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward LSU).

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -34.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketLSU by 35the number to beat

SP+LSU by 31.53.3 apart

FPILSU by 323.2 apart

SagarinLSU by 39.54.7 apart

We settle onLSU by 3430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-31.5	-6293
FPI	-32.0	-6391
Sagarin	-39.5	-27247
Market (12 books)	-35.0	-4043

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0	-110	+144	-11.5%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+4000	+9464	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -34.3 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

Under 54.5

should be 52.8 · getting 1.7 pts at TOM · was 52.5

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Under 54.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 52.8, 1.7 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side

Market

-32.5

SP+

-34.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-33.0

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-32.5 -108	54.5 -117	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-32.5 -115	55 -106	—	—

Auburn -32.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Auburn to win · -9000 at TOM

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -103 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 5.6 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 54.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 47% chance of rain.

Opened -29.5, now -32.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $401 available; Under 54.5, only $306 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $219 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAuburn by 32.5the number to beat

SP+Auburn by 34.51.9 apart

FPIAuburn by 19.513.2 apart

SagarinAuburn by 39.56.9 apart

We settle onAuburn by 3330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-34.5	-10097
FPI	-19.5	-933
Sagarin	-39.5	-25812
Market (12 books)	-32.5	-2827

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers -32.5	-108	-164	+10.2%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	-9000	-7979	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-103	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pm

Over 56.5

should be 58.4 · getting 1.9 pts at TOM

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Over 56.5: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 58.4, 1.9 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Arkansas sideUtah side

Market

-13.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-12.0

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-13.5 -108	56.5 -110	-510	+360
Kalshi	-13.5 +101 48¢	—	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-13 -109	57.5 -102	-538	+382

Arkansas +13.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +360 at TOM

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 6.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

Opened -11.5, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $104 available; Under 56.5, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.1 consensus.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -488 here against -409 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUtah by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Utah by 6.57.1 apart

FPIUtah by 8.55.1 apart

SagarinUtah by 8.55.2 apart

We settle onUtah by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-8.5	-246
Sagarin	-8.5	-243
Market (11 books)	-13.5	-488

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	62.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5	-112	-108	-0.9%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+360	+369	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.1 consensus; total 56.5 here against 57.1 consensus; moneyline -488 here against -409 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Michigan +5.5

should be Michigan +4.5 · getting 1 pt · was +4.5

A Little Nasty · Michigan

A Little Nasty, Michigan. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 4.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side

Market

+5.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

+4.5

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Oklahoma ML
TOM	+5.5 -108	44 -110	+175	-215
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+189 33¢	-239 69¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -111	43 -117	+179	-216

Michigan +5.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Michigan to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Michigan +5.5 · -108 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.

Opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.0.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOklahoma by 5.5the number to beat

SP+Michigan by 0.55.9 apart

FPIOklahoma by 14.7 apart

SagarinMichigan by 1.57.1 apart

We settle onOklahoma by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.5	-118
Market (12 books)	+5.5	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +5.5	-108	-120	+2.6%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+175	+157	+2.5%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.3 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

San Diego State +11.5

should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5

A Little Nasty · San Diego State

A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 53.0 as well.

San Diego State sideUCLA side

Market

-11.5

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-1.0

Sagarin

-17.0

We say

-10.0

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-11.5 -115	53 -110	-450	+340
Pinnacle	-11.5 -110	53 -110	-482	+351

San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

San Diego State to win · +340 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM.

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.5.

TOM: moneyline -431 here against -377 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUCLA by 11.5the number to beat

SP+UCLA by 74.6 apart

FPIUCLA by 110.3 apart

SagarinUCLA by 175.6 apart

We settle onUCLA by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-209
FPI	-1.0	-114
Sagarin	-17.0	-698
Market (12 books)	-11.5	-431

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +11.5	-105	-120	+3.3%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+340	+299	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.6.

TOM: moneyline -431 here against -377 consensus.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at Syracuse

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 57

should be 56.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans California too: market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 2.5, but at +135 that's too thin.

California sideSyracuse side

Market

-3.5

SP+

+2.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.5

We say

-2.5

	Syracuse spread	Total (over)	Syracuse ML	California ML
TOM	-3.5 +100	57 -110	-165	+135
Kalshi	—	56.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3 -118	56 -117	-168	+142

California +3.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

California to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

California to win · +135 at TOM. A price bet: California loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · California, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.7 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -3.5, only $460 available; California Golden Bears +3.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketSyracuse by 3.5the number to beat

SP+California by 2.56.2 apart

FPISyracuse by 0.53 apart

SagarinCalifornia by 2.55.9 apart

We settle onSyracuse by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+133
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.5	+129
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+135	+127	+1.5%
Spread	California Golden Bears +3.5	-120	-125	+1.1%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at Minnesota

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 54.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Minnesota too: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 1, but at -110 that's too thin.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-3.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

-3.5

We say

-1.0

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	+1 -110	55.5 -110	-105	-115
Kalshi	-1.5 +101 48¢	55.5 -107 50¢	-107 50¢	-107 50¢
Pinnacle	+1 -116	55.5 -108	-111	-105

Minnesota +1.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · -105 at TOM

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47.

Not Nasty

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Minnesota +1.0 · -110 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.5 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +2.0.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +1.5, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat

SP+Minnesota by 3.54.6 apart

FPIMinnesota by 0.51.5 apart

SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.5 apart

We settle onMinnesota by 140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.5	-146
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-145
Market (12 books)	+1.0	-100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0	-110	-115	+1.1%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-105	-109	+1.0%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at Army

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Over 48

should be 49.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3. Nothing there.

South Florida sideArmy side

Market

-3.5

SP+

-1.5

FPI

+2.5

Sagarin

-2.0

We say

-3.0

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-171	+141
Kalshi	—	47.5 -121 53¢	-175 62¢	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -105	48.5 -105	-176	+148

South Florida +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

South Florida to win · +141 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 6.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

South Florida +3.5 · -110 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights -3.5, only $9 available; South Florida Bulls +3.5, only $9 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $429 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketArmy by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Army by 1.52 apart

FPISouth Florida by 2.56 apart

SagarinArmy by 21.3 apart

We settle onArmy by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-117
FPI	+2.5	+130
Sagarin	-2.0	-126
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls +3.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+141	+138	+0.4%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 41

should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Iowa too: market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5, but at -115 that's too thin.

Iowa State sideIowa side

Market

-14.0

SP+

-17.0

FPI

-13.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-14.5

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-14 -115	41 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-14 -107	41 -108	-614	+423

Iowa -14.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · -642 at TOM

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Iowa -14.0 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

A play at -13.5 or better.

Full detail

The marketIowa by 14the number to beat

SP+Iowa by 173.2 apart

FPIIowa by 13.50.3 apart

SagarinIowa by 195.1 apart

We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-709
FPI	-13.5	-457
Sagarin	-19.0	-910
Market (12 books)	-14.0	-474

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	43.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0	-115	-119	+0.8%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-642	-515	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Over 54.5

should be 56.2 · getting 1.7 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Georgia Tech too: market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11, but at -110 that's too thin.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side

Market

+12.5

SP+

+9.0

FPI

+9.5

Sagarin

+9.0

We say

+11.0

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+12.5 -110	54.5 -110	+370	-500
Kalshi	+11.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -116 52¢	+398 19¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -118	55 -106	+381	-536

Georgia Tech +12.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · +370 at TOM

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Georgia Tech +12.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

A play at +14.0 or better.

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTennessee by 12.5the number to beat

SP+Tennessee by 93.3 apart

FPITennessee by 9.53.1 apart

SagarinTennessee by 93.3 apart

We settle onTennessee by 1140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.0	+270
FPI	+9.5	+274
Sagarin	+9.0	+269
Market (12 books)	+12.5	+387

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	58.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+370	+338	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus; total 54.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Under 56.5

should be 55.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 56.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says East Carolina by 8, we say East Carolina by 9. Nothing there.

App State sideEast Carolina side

Market

-8.0

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-11.5

We say

-9.0

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	App State ML
TOM	-8 -110	56.5 -110	-320	+245
Pinnacle	-7.5 -104	56.5 -108	-330	+258

East Carolina -8.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · -320 at TOM

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.

Not Nasty

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 32% chance of rain.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward App State).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -306 here against -274 consensus.

Full detail

The marketEast Carolina by 8the number to beat

SP+East Carolina by 12.54.6 apart

FPIEast Carolina by 11.53.4 apart

We settle onEast Carolina by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-400
FPI	-11.5	-347
Sagarin	doesn't rate App State
Market (12 books)	-8.0	-306

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -8.0	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-320	-270	-3.2%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.7 consensus; moneyline -306 here against -274 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYU

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Over 49.5

should be 50 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. Nothing there.

Arizona sideBYU side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-7.5

FPI

-8.0

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-7.5

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Arizona ML
TOM	-7.5 -116	49.5 -110	-295	+235
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -103 49¢	—	+240 28¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 -107	50.5 -102	-311	+245

BYU -7.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

BYU to win · -295 at TOM

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 82°F.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats +7.5, only $6 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $146 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat

SP+BYU by 7.50.1 apart

FPIBYU by 80.7 apart

SagarinBYU by 8.51.2 apart

We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-226
FPI	-8.0	-240
Sagarin	-8.5	-256
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	52.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -7.5	-116	+116	-7.4%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-295	-227	-5.3%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UAB

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Over 55.5

should be 56.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10. Nothing there.

UL Monroe sideUAB side

Market

-10.0

SP+

-13.5

FPI

-7.0

We say

-10.0

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	UL Monroe ML
TOM	-10 -115	55.5 -108	-385	+295
Kalshi	—	—	—	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -105	56 -109	-423	+316

UAB -10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UAB to win · -385 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 3.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 43% chance of rain.

Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $104 available; Under 55.5, only $493 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $445 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUAB by 10the number to beat

SP+UAB by 13.53.6 apart

FPIUAB by 73 apart

We settle onUAB by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-451
FPI	-7.0	-211
Sagarin	doesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-368

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UAB Blazers -10.0	-115	+105	-4.8%
Moneyline	UAB Blazers ML	-385	-298	-4.5%
Total	Over 55.5	-108	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Over 51

should be 51.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13.5. Nothing there.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+17.5

FPI

+7.5

We say

+13.5

	Sam Houston spread	Total (over)	Sam Houston ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	+13.5 -108	51 -115	+400	-550
Kalshi	—	51.5 -116 52¢	+426 18¢	-564 84¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -105	51 -117	+413	-595

Sam Houston +13.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Sam Houston to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F.

Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketTulsa by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Tulsa by 17.54.2 apart

FPITulsa by 7.56.2 apart

We settle onTulsa by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.5	+757
FPI	+7.5	+217
Sagarin	doesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5	-108	+108	-3.9%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+400	+434	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Over 49.5

should be 50.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 10. Nothing there.

South Alabama sideTulane side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-15.0

Sagarin

-12.0

We say

-10.0

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-9.5 -112	49.5 -110	-385	+295
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	50.5	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-9 -113	50.5 -108	-389	+295

Tulane -9.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · -385 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. That's 2.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -11.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $171 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -368 here against -315 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTulane by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Tulane by 12.53 apart

FPITulane by 155.5 apart

SagarinTulane by 122.6 apart

We settle onTulane by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-395
FPI	-15.0	-535
Sagarin	-12.0	-375
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-368

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave -9.5	-112	-102	-2.3%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	-385	-300	-4.4%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus; total 49.5 here against 50.2 consensus; moneyline -368 here against -315 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 59.5

should be 60.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4.5, we say Navy by 4.5. Nothing there.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side

Market

+4.5

SP+

+5.0

FPI

+8.5

Sagarin

+4.5

We say

+4.5

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Navy ML
TOM	+4.5 -110	59.5 -110	+170	-200
Kalshi	+4.5	—	+189 33¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4.5 -103	59 -112	+173	-209

Navy -4.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -200 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57.

Not Nasty

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 87°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls +4.5, only $100 available; Over 59.5, only $369 available; Under 59.5, only $203 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNavy by 4.5the number to beat

SP+Navy by 50.6 apart

FPINavy by 8.53.8 apart

SagarinNavy by 4.50.2 apart

We settle onNavy by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.0	+172
FPI	+8.5	+245
Sagarin	+4.5	+158
Market (12 books)	+4.5	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	62.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -4.5	-110	+108	-4.2%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-200	-163	-4.7%
Total	Over 59.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No bet

market says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 8.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 8.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

-2.0

We say

-8.5

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-10.5 -108	47.5 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	—	47.5 -116 52¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -101	48 -101	-409	+307

Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Full detail

The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Florida International by 0.510.1 apart

FPIFlorida International by 28.4 apart

We settle onFlorida International by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	-2.0	-125
Sagarin	doesn't rate Florida International
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	47.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.5	-112	-133	+4.3%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+310	+251	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.7.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

Memphis to win

our data says 30 in 100 · +270 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Memphis sideBoise State side

Market

-8.5

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-8.0

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	Memphis ML
TOM	-8.5 -110	55.5 -110	-345	+270
Pinnacle	-9 -113	55.5 -110	-369	+283

Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · +270 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Memphis loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

A Little Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Memphis to win · +270 at TOM. A price bet: Memphis loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 72°F.

Opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Boise State).

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat

SP+Boise State by 71.5 apart

FPIBoise State by 62.3 apart

SagarinBoise State by 90.3 apart

We settle onBoise State by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-211
FPI	-6.0	-194
Sagarin	-9.0	-257
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	58.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+270	+233	+3.0%
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.5	-110	-122	+2.5%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConn

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Maryland -13.5

should be Maryland -14 · getting 0.5 pts

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Maryland sideUConn side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+15.0

FPI

+10.0

Sagarin

+16.5

We say

+14.0

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Maryland ML
TOM	+13.5 -115	52.5 -110	+370	-500
Kalshi	+11.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -107 50¢	—	-458 81¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -104	52.5 -112	+360	-498

Maryland -13.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Maryland to win · -500 at TOM

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Maryland -13.5 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -12.5.

Kalshi thin: UConn Huskies ML, only $376 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Maryland by 151.4 apart

FPIMaryland by 103.5 apart

SagarinMaryland by 16.53 apart

We settle onMaryland by 1440% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+15.0	+529
FPI	+10.0	+295
Sagarin	+16.5	+649
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+387

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins -13.5	-105	-118	+3.0%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	-500	-478	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.7 consensus.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

UCF +7

should be UCF +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +8.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

UCF sidePittsburgh side

Market

-7.0

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-4.0

We say

-6.5

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	UCF ML
TOM	-7 -115	57 -110	-280	+220
Kalshi	-7.5 +101 48¢	57.5 -107 50¢	-306 74¢	—
Pinnacle	-7 -110	57 -109	-286	+228

UCF +7.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

UCF to win · +220 at TOM

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

UCF +7.0 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 27% chance of rain.

Opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $106 available; UCF Knights ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -268 here against -243 consensus.

Full detail

The marketPittsburgh by 7the number to beat

SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.3 apart

FPIPittsburgh by 43 apart

We settle onPittsburgh by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-204
FPI	-4.0	-152
Sagarin	doesn't rate UCF
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-268

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +7.0	-105	-115	+2.3%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+220	+203	+1.7%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: moneyline -268 here against -243 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Ohio State to win

our data says 49 in 100 · +105 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 0.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Ohio State sideTexas side

Market

-1.5

SP+

+7.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

-0.5

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Ohio State ML
TOM	-1.5 -114	48.5 -110	-125	+105
Pinnacle	-1.5 -112	48.5 -114	-124	+106

Ohio State +1.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ohio State to win · +105 at TOM

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Ohio State to win · +105 at TOM. A price bet: Ohio State loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Full detail

The marketTexas by 1.5the number to beat

SP+Ohio State by 7.59.2 apart

FPITexas by 0.51.1 apart

SagarinOhio State by 23.7 apart

We settle onTexas by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+228
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.0	+126
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	+105	+104	+0.2%
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5	-106	-106	-0.1%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at Purdue

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Purdue to win

our data says 40 in 100 · +153 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 4, we say Wake Forest by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side

Market

+4.0

SP+

+3.5

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

We say

+4.0

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+4 -114	49 -110	+153	-183
Kalshi	+4.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -103 49¢	—	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+4 -113	50 -102	+156	-186

Purdue +4.0 · -114 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +153 at TOM

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Purdue to win · +153 at TOM. A price bet: Purdue loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F, 28% chance of rain.

Opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Purdue).

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -4.5, only $336 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $342 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketWake Forest by 4the number to beat

SP+Wake Forest by 3.50.6 apart

FPIWake Forest by 30.8 apart

Sagarina pick'em4.1 apart

We settle onWake Forest by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.5	+143
FPI	+3.0	+141
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	+4.0	+160

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+153	+149	+0.6%
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +4.0	-114	-113	-0.3%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Over 49.5

should be 50 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 17.5.

Washington State sideKansas State side

Market

-17.5

SP+

-15.5

FPI

-11.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-17.0

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-17.5 -110	49.5 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-17.5 -108	49 -109	-985	+599

Washington State +17.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Washington State to win · +650 at TOM

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 49.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 22% chance of rain.

Opened -16.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKansas State by 17.5the number to beat

SP+Kansas State by 15.51.8 apart

FPIKansas State by 11.56.2 apart

SagarinKansas State by 191.4 apart

We settle onKansas State by 1721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-585
FPI	-11.5	-344
Sagarin	-19.0	-895
Market (11 books)	-17.5	-658

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +17.5	-110	+113	-5.5%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+650	+702	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Under 57.5

should be 56.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 60.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side

Market

+22.5

SP+

+20.0

FPI

+19.5

Sagarin

+25.0

We say

+22.0

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Oregon ML
TOM	+22.5 -110	57.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+22.5 -109	57.5 -110	+948	-1953

Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oklahoma State to win · +1050 at TOM

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat

SP+Oregon by 202.4 apart

FPIOregon by 19.52.8 apart

SagarinOregon by 252.3 apart

We settle onOregon by 2230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.0	+1047
FPI	+19.5	+995
Sagarin	+25.0	+2060
Market (12 books)	+22.5	+1042

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5	-110	+126	-8.1%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+1050	+1325	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 18.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 18.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 18.5.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-14.0

Sagarin

-20.0

We say

-18.5

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5 -121 53¢	51.5 -103 49¢	-869 89¢	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -108	51 -109	-1113	+652

Old Dominion +18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Old Dominion to win · +674 at TOM

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 31% chance of rain.

Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $86 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketVirginia Tech by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50.8 apart

FPIVirginia Tech by 144.5 apart

SagarinVirginia Tech by 201.3 apart

We settle onVirginia Tech by 18.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-757
FPI	-14.0	-475
Sagarin	-20.0	-1006
Market (12 books)	-18.5	-701

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +18.5	-110	+118	-6.6%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+674	+816	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at Temple

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Penn State by 24, our data says Penn State by 24

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.

Penn State sideTemple side

Market

+24.0

SP+

+23.0

FPI

+20.0

Sagarin

+29.5

We say

+24.0

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Penn State ML
TOM	+24 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+23.5 -102	49.5 -111	+1068	-2363

Temple +24.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Temple to win · +1278 at TOM

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketPenn State by 24the number to beat

SP+Penn State by 230.9 apart

FPIPenn State by 203.9 apart

SagarinPenn State by 29.55.7 apart

We settle onPenn State by 2421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1604
FPI	+20.0	+1049
Sagarin	+29.5	+4463
Market (12 books)	+24.0	+1202

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +24.0	-110	+140	-10.7%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+1278	+1781	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.6 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at Georgia

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 am

No bet

market says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 39.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side

Market

-41.0

SP+

-36.0

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-42.0

We say

-39.5

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Western Kentucky ML
TOM	-41 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-39.5 -118	54 -112	—	—

Western Kentucky +41.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 65 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Opened -35.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 4.5 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketGeorgia by 41the number to beat

SP+Georgia by 365.1 apart

FPIGeorgia by 329.1 apart

SagarinGeorgia by 420.8 apart

We settle onGeorgia by 39.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-36.0	-13246
FPI	-32.0	-6508
Sagarin	-42.0	-41331
Market (11 books)	-41.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	55.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0	-110	-185	+12.6%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at Kentucky

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 10, our data says Alabama by 10

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Alabama sideKentucky side

Market

+10.0

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+12.5

Sagarin

+10.0

We say

+10.0

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	Alabama ML
TOM	+10 -105	49.5 -110	+300	-390
Kalshi	+10.5 -121 53¢	49.5 -112 51¢	—	-404 79¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -110	49 -110	+317	-425

Alabama -10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -390 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 32% chance of rain.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -10.5, only $351 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAlabama by 10the number to beat

SP+Alabama by 100.2 apart

FPIAlabama by 12.52.6 apart

SagarinAlabama by 100.1 apart

We settle onAlabama by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+302
FPI	+12.5	+398
Sagarin	+10.0	+292
Market (12 books)	+10.0	+314

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -10.0	-115	+106	-4.9%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-390	-297	-4.8%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at Illinois

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Illinois by 6, our data says Illinois by 6.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Duke sideIllinois side

Market

-6.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-4.5

Sagarin

-11.0

We say

-6.5

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Duke ML
TOM	-6 -110	53.5 -110	-225	+175
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-6 -112	53.5 -107	-238	+194

Illinois -6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Illinois to win · -225 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils +6.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat

SP+Illinois by 71 apart

FPIIllinois by 4.51.6 apart

SagarinIllinois by 115.2 apart

We settle onIllinois by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-211
FPI	-4.5	-159
Sagarin	-11.0	-340
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-215

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	58.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0	-110	+101	-2.5%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	-225	-196	-3.1%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan State

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side

Market

-17.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-22.5

We say

-17.5

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-17 -113	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -108	50.5 -107	-970	+592

Michigan State -17.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · -924 at TOM

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMichigan State by 17the number to beat

SP+Michigan State by 20.53.5 apart

FPIMichigan State by 19.52.4 apart

SagarinMichigan State by 22.55.5 apart

We settle onMichigan State by 17.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-1106
FPI	-19.5	-950
Sagarin	-22.5	-1469
Market (12 books)	-17.0	-634

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -17.0	-113	-132	+3.9%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-924	-761	priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre Dame

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 54.5

should be 53.5 · getting 1 pt · was 52.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.

Rice sideNotre Dame side

Market

-44.5

SP+

-44.0

FPI

-41.5

Sagarin

-53.0

We say

-44.5

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Rice ML
TOM	-44.5 -110	54.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-44.5 -108	54.5 -109	—	—

Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 54.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 54.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $306 available; Under 54.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 440.5 apart

FPINotre Dame by 41.53 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 538.3 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 44.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-44.0	-63883
FPI	-41.5	-38512
Sagarin	-53.0	-437421
Market (11 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +44.5	-110	-162	+9.4%
Total	Under 54.5	-105	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

UTSA sideTexas State side

Market

-1.5

SP+

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

We say

-1.5

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	64.5 -110	-125	+105
Pinnacle	-1.5 -108	64.5 -110	-118	+101

UTSA +1.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UTSA to win · +105 at TOM

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.

Not Nasty

the Over 64.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas State by 1.5the number to beat

SP+Texas State by 10.3 apart

FPITexas State by 31.8 apart

Sagarina pick'em1.4 apart

We settle onTexas State by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-113
FPI	-3.0	-141
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	71.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UTSA Roadrunners +1.5	-110	+105	-3.7%
Moneyline	UTSA Roadrunners ML	+105	+116	-2.6%
Total	Over 64.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at Washington

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Washington by 26.5, our data says Washington by 26.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.

Utah State sideWashington side

Market

-26.5

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-19.0

Sagarin

-35.0

We say

-26.5

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-26.5 -110	56 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-26.5 -108	55.5 -109	—	+1431

Utah State +26.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Utah State to win · +1600 at TOM

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F, 33% chance of rain.

Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketWashington by 26.5the number to beat

SP+Washington by 260.6 apart

FPIWashington by 197.7 apart

SagarinWashington by 358.3 apart

We settle onWashington by 26.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-2445
FPI	-19.0	-877
Sagarin	-35.0	-10809
Market (12 books)	-26.5	-1533

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +26.5	-110	+150	-12.4%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1600	+2609	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at Vanderbilt

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm

No bet

market says Vanderbilt by 20.5, our data says Vanderbilt by 21.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 20.5.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side

Market

-20.5

SP+

-25.0

FPI

-15.5

Sagarin

-28.5

We say

-21.5

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Delaware ML
TOM	-20.5 -113	53.5 -120	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+944 9¢
Pinnacle	-21 -110	54.5 -107	-1562	+820

Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 60 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Vanderbilt to win · -1530 at TOM

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 53.5 · -120 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 33% chance of rain.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVanderbilt by 20.5the number to beat

SP+Vanderbilt by 254.4 apart

FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.8 apart

SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.1 apart

We settle onVanderbilt by 21.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-2097
FPI	-15.5	-587
Sagarin	-28.5	-3727
Market (12 books)	-20.5	-872

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5	-113	-150	+6.9%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	-1530	-1259	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.5	-120	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus; total 53.5 here against 54.3 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No bet

market says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side

Market

-2.5

SP+

+2.0

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

-2.5

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	51.5 -110	-140	+120
Pinnacle	-2.5 -116	51.5 -109	-138	+118

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jacksonville State to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.

Opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ohio).

Full detail

The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat

SP+Jacksonville State by 24.3 apart

FPIOhio by 8.55.8 apart

SagarinOhio by 1.51.1 apart

We settle onOhio by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.0	+121
FPI	-8.5	-245
Sagarin	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5	-103	+106	-2.1%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+120	+127	-1.4%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Kennesaw State by 9.5, our data says Kennesaw State by 9.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9.5, we say Kennesaw State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-18.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-9.5

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-9.5 -108	54 -110	-335	+260
Pinnacle	-9 -111	54 -108	-363	+279

Georgia State +9.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Georgia State to win · +260 at TOM

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart

FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart

SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart

We settle onKennesaw State by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-853
FPI	-9.5	-275
Sagarin	-8.5	-245
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-321

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	55.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.5	-112	-106	-1.5%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+260	+278	-1.3%
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.4.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Marshall by 13.5, our data says Marshall by 13.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 13.5, we say Marshall by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side

Market

-13.5

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-13.5

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Middle Tennessee ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Pinnacle	-14 -107	57.5 -118	-689	+462

Marshall -13.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Marshall to win · -635 at TOM

We make it 82 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F, 35% chance of rain.

Opened -17.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.9 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMarshall by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Marshall by 20.57 apart

FPIMarshall by 9.54 apart

SagarinMarshall by 140.4 apart

We settle onMarshall by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-1106
FPI	-9.5	-278
Sagarin	-14.0	-467
Market (12 books)	-13.5	-489

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	60.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Marshall Thundering Herd -13.5	-115	-112	-0.6%
Moneyline	Marshall Thundering Herd ML	-635	-452	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus; total 58.5 here against 57.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 55 · getting 0.5 pts · was 56.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 21.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-30.5

We say

-22.0

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-21 -108	55.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	-1236 92¢	+944 9¢
Pinnacle	-20.5 -109	55.5 -108	-1485	+793

Clemson -21.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 60 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Clemson to win · -1496 at TOM

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F, 49% chance of rain.

Opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketClemson by 21the number to beat

SP+Clemson by 265.1 apart

FPIClemson by 24.53.3 apart

SagarinClemson by 30.59.7 apart

We settle onClemson by 2221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-2522
FPI	-24.5	-1922
Sagarin	-30.5	-5310
Market (12 books)	-21.0	-865

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Clemson Tigers -21.0	-108	-152	+8.3%
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-1496	-1381	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-115	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 52

should be 51.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side

Market

+26.5

SP+

+25.0

FPI

+26.0

Sagarin

+33.5

We say

+26.5

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	Texas Tech ML
TOM	+26.5 -115	52 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+27 -116	51 -117	+1302	—

Oregon State +26.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oregon State to win · +1500 at TOM

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 34% chance of rain.

Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas Tech by 26.5the number to beat

SP+Texas Tech by 251.3 apart

FPITexas Tech by 260.6 apart

SagarinTexas Tech by 33.57 apart

We settle onTexas Tech by 26.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+25.0	+2195
FPI	+26.0	+2451
Sagarin	+33.5	+8590
Market (12 books)	+26.5	+1437

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	49.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers +26.5	-115	+150	-13.5%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	+1500	+2611	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

Under 60.5

should be 59.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 61.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side

Market

-47.5

SP+

-43.0

FPI

-33.0

Sagarin

-50.5

We say

-46.5

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-47.5 -113	60.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-47.5 -108	61.5 -109	—	—

Charlotte +47.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 63 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +9950 at TOM

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 58. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).

Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $205 available; Under 61.5, only $477 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 47.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 434.7 apart

FPIOle Miss by 3314.7 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 50.53.2 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 46.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-43.0	-50019
FPI	-33.0	-7627
Sagarin	-50.5	-271749
Market (10 books)	-47.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +47.5	-107	-173	+11.6%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+9950	+108072	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 60.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.4 consensus.

The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

No bet

market says North Dakota State by 3, our data says North Dakota State by 3

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 3, we say North Dakota State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side

Market

+3.0

SP+

-1.0

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+3.0

	Air Force spread	Total (over)	Air Force ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 -113	48 -110	+125	-150
Pinnacle	+3 -109	47.5 -105	+127	-149

North Dakota State -3.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

North Dakota State to win · -150 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Air Force).

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNorth Dakota State by 3the number to beat

SP+Air Force by 13.8 apart

FPINorth Dakota State by 30.1 apart

SagarinNorth Dakota State by 30.1 apart

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-109
FPI	+3.0	+138
Sagarin	+3.0	+139
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	North Dakota State Bison -3.0	-107	+101	-1.9%
Moneyline	North Dakota State Bison ML	-150	-137	-2.1%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

Over 45

should be 45.7 · getting 0.7 pts · was 48.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.5.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-24.0

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-16.0

We say

-18.0

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-18.5 -115	45 -107	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -104	46 -104	-1078	+638

Sacramento State +18.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +668 at TOM

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Fresno State by 245.7 apart

FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart

SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart

We settle onFresno State by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1887
FPI	-16.0	-601
Sagarin	-16.0	-619
Market (12 books)	-18.5	-692

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.5	-105	+112	-4.1%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+668	+767	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-107	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm

No bet

market says USC by 31.5, our data says USC by 31

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.5.

Louisiana sideUSC side

Market

-31.5

SP+

-30.5

FPI

-28.0

We say

-31.0

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-31.5 -112	60 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-31 -108	60 -108	—	—

Louisiana +31.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +2449 at TOM

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 60.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward USC).

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $106 available; Under 59.5, only $306 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $251 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUSC by 31.5the number to beat

SP+USC by 30.51 apart

FPIUSC by 283.6 apart

We settle onUSC by 3130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-30.5	-5134
FPI	-28.0	-3373
Sagarin	doesn't rate Louisiana
Market (12 books)	-31.5	-2645

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.5	-108	+146	-11.3%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+2449	+5415	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.1 consensus.

The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-35.5	-4080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at Indiana

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Howard Bison, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Howard ML
Kalshi	—	64.5	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 64.5, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-55.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	—

Howard Bison is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wofford Terriers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -14.5, now -13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Wofford). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-13.5	-500

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-07 09:34.

Wofford Terriers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Colgate Raiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Colgate ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

Opened -26.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Colgate).

Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-25.5	-1416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-07 09:34.

Colgate Raiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Holy Cross Crusaders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	Holy Cross ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-32.5	-2740

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

Holy Cross Crusaders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball State

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-16.0	-591

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at Akron

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Robert Morris Colonials, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Robert Morris ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $351 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-28.5	-2292

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	—

Robert Morris Colonials is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut Blue at Toledo

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Central Connecticut Blue Devils, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Central Connecticut Blue Devils is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at Colorado

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Weber State Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-34.5	-2574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Weber State Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James Madison

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wagner Seahawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	James Madison spread	Total (over)	James Madison ML	Wagner ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-45.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Wagner Seahawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at Massachusetts

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Sacred Heart Pioneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Sacred Heart ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Opened -25.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart).

Kalshi thin: Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-23.5	-1156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart Pioneers since 09-07 09:34.

Sacred Heart Pioneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at Troy

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Alabama State Hornets, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-22.5	-970

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Alabama State Hornets is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New Mexico

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	Mercyhurst ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at Wyoming

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Northern Colorado Bears, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Northern Colorado ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

Kalshi thin: Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-23.5	-1298

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Northern Colorado Bears is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell Fighting at Florida

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Campbell Fighting Camels, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Campbell Fighting ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 67.5, only $156 available; Under 67.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-49.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	67.0	—

Campbell Fighting Camels is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb Runnin at Liberty

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Gardner-Webb Runnin ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

Kalshi thin: Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $435 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-27.5	-1606

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Monmouth Hawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Monmouth ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Opened -27.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Monmouth).

Kalshi thin: Monmouth Hawks ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-25.5	-1328

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Monmouth Hawks since 09-07 09:34.

Monmouth Hawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Western Carolina Catamounts, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Western Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	—

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $117 available; Under 60.5, only $117 available; Western Carolina Catamounts ML, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-36.5	-3805

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Western Carolina Catamounts is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern Utah Thunderbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-21.0	-925

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

Southern Utah Thunderbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern University at Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern University Jaguars, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	Southern University ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $260 available; Under 60.5, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-50.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Southern University Jaguars is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Towson Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Towson ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $177 available; Under 55.5, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-42.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	—

Towson Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Fordham Rams, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Fordham ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Fordham Rams ML, only $254 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-31.5	-3305

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Fordham Rams is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Prairie View A&M Panthers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Prairie View A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $238 available; Under 54.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-38.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Prairie View A&M Panthers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling State at TCU

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Grambling State Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Grambling State Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San Jose State

CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-20.5	-1100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP

CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Texas Southern Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Texas Southern ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Kalshi thin: Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-27.5	-1956

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Texas Southern Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Montana State Bobcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Nevada).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	+4.5	+177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-07 09:34.

Montana State Bobcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii Rainbow

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-315

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Ravens at Colts

GameThe call

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Over 47.5

should be 48.1 · getting 0.4 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 47.5. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. Nothing there.

Ravens sideColts side

Market

+3.5

nfelo

+0.5

FPI

+2.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+3.0

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -116 52¢	+146 39¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	47.5 -113	+155	-177

Colts +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +150

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Colts +3.5 · -110.

A play at +4.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart

FPIRavens by 21.7 apart

SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+109
FPI	+2.0	+124
Sagarin	+3.0	+148
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-110	-117	+1.6%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+150	+146	+0.6%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Over 39

should be 41.2 · getting 2 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.

Jets sideTitans side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-3.0

FPI

-2.5

Sagarin

-4.5

We say

-1.5

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Jets ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	39.5 -103 49¢	-126 54¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-1 -109	39 -111	-119	+106

Titans -1.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · -124

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.0 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 6.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 39.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Titans -1.0 · -110.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketTitans by 1the number to beat

nfeloTitans by 31.9 apart

FPITitans by 2.51.7 apart

SagarinTitans by 4.53.4 apart

We settle onTitans by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-2.5	-139
Sagarin	-4.5	-171
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans -1.0	-110	-115	+1.0%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-124	-121	-0.7%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-131	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants

NFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pm

Over 48

should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2.5. Nothing there.

Cowboys sideGiants side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

-1.0

FPI

+1.5

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	48.5 -103 49¢	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +112	47.5 -121	+142	-161

Giants +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · +135

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Giants to win · +135. A price bet: Giants loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $413 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Full detail

The marketCowboys by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloGiants by 13.7 apart

FPICowboys by 1.51.3 apart

SagarinCowboys by 20.5 apart

We settle onCowboys by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-113
FPI	+1.5	+118
Sagarin	+2.0	+131
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+135	+134	+0.1%
Spread	New York Giants +2.5	-110	+108	-4.4%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Over 44

should be 45.7 · getting 1.5 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 44.0. Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 0.5, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

Bills sideTexans side

Market

+0.5

nfelo

-0.5

FPI

+0.5

Sagarin

We say

+0.5

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bills ML
Kalshi	-1.5 +101 48¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-112 51¢	-107 50¢
Pinnacle	+1 -115	44 -118	-108	-104

Texans +0.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Texans to win · -109

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110

Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 44.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills +1.5, only $407 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketBills by 0.5the number to beat

nfeloTexans by 0.51 apart

FPIBills by 0.50.1 apart

Sagarina pick'em0.4 apart

We settle onBills by 0.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-107
FPI	+0.5	+105
Sagarin	pk	+100
Market (12 books)	+0.5	-101

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans +0.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-109	+104	-3.1%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Under 47.5

should be 46.7 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5. Massey say under by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.

Bears sidePanthers side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

+1.0

FPI

+2.0

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Bears ML
Kalshi	+2.5 +105 47¢	47.5 -103 49¢	—	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +110	47.5 +101	+141	-160

Panthers +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +132

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $241 available; Carolina Panthers ML, only $42 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloBears by 11.8 apart

FPIBears by 20.7 apart

SagarinBears by 20.6 apart

We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
FPI	+2.0	+127
Sagarin	+2.0	+129
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+132	+136	-0.6%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Under 50

should be 49.3 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 4.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.

Saints sideLions side

Market

-7.0

nfelo

-6.0

FPI

-7.5

Sagarin

-7.5

We say

-7.0

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Saints ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-322 75¢	—
Pinnacle	-7 -105	50.5 +102	-321	+267

Lions -7.0 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -320

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 50.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $107 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions) and 4 more.

Full detail

The marketLions by 7the number to beat

nfeloLions by 60.8 apart

FPILions by 7.50.5 apart

SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-214
FPI	-7.5	-252
Sagarin	-7.5	-260
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-276

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -7.0	-110	+117	-6.2%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-320	-240	-5.6%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Under 47

should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 10. Nothing there.

Cardinals sideChargers side

Market

-10.0

nfelo

-4.0

FPI

-10.5

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-10.0

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-490 82¢	+398 19¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 +106	47 -114	-509	+395

Chargers -10.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chargers to win · -530

We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $416 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: James Conner (RB, Cardinals), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals) and 4 more.

Full detail

The marketChargers by 10the number to beat

nfeloChargers by 46 apart

FPIChargers by 10.50.2 apart

SagarinChargers by 143.8 apart

We settle onChargers by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-165
FPI	-10.5	-368
Sagarin	-14.0	-618
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Chargers -10.0	-110	+108	-4.3%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Chargers ML	-530	-361	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Under 46

should be 45.4 · getting 0.8 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.

Packers sideVikings side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-4.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+0.5

We say

-1.0

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Packers ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -116 52¢	-121 53¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-1 -115	46 -112	-124	+111

Packers +1.0 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · +102

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 43. That's 3.6 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers +1.5, only $405 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.

Full detail

The marketVikings by 1the number to beat

nfeloVikings by 4.53.2 apart

FPIPackers by 12.2 apart

SagarinPackers by 0.51.7 apart

We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
FPI	+1.0	+114
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-114

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers +1.0	-110	+104	-3.3%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	+102	+110	-1.9%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 38 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side

Market

-4.0

nfelo

-2.5

FPI

-4.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-4.0

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Buccaneers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	50.5 +101 48¢	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-4 -106	51 +101	-208	+180

Buccaneers +4.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +175

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Buccaneers to win · +175. A price bet: Buccaneers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketBengals by 4the number to beat

nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart

FPIBengals by 40.1 apart

SagarinBengals by 40.3 apart

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.0	-159
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-187

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+175	+161	+2.0%
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-110	-114	+0.8%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +9 · was +8

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Browns sideJaguars side

Market

-9.0

nfelo

-5.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-9.5

We say

-9.0

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Browns ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	—
Pinnacle	-9.5 +101	40.5 -112	-391	+316

Browns +9.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +320

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Browns +9.0 · -110.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F.

Opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +10.0.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $69 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out, already in the ratings: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve; Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketJaguars by 9the number to beat

nfeloJaguars by 5.53.7 apart

FPIJaguars by 8.50.5 apart

SagarinJaguars by 9.50.6 apart

We settle onJaguars by 940% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-192
FPI	-8.5	-287
Sagarin	-9.5	-334
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-336

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-110	-118	+1.8%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+320	+299	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Dolphins +3.5

should be Dolphins +3.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Dolphins sideRaiders side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

FPI

-3.5

Sagarin

-5.5

We say

-3.5

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	40.5 -110	-180	+157

Dolphins +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Dolphins to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Dolphins +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 5 more.

Full detail

The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart

FPIRaiders by 3.50 apart

SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart

We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-121
FPI	-3.5	-153
Sagarin	-5.5	-202
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +3.5	-110	-112	+0.6%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+155	+153	+0.3%
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

No bet

market says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Commanders sideEagles side

Market

-4.5

nfelo

-4.0

FPI

-5.5

Sagarin

-6.5

We say

-5.0

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Commanders ML
Kalshi	-5.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -108	44.5 -101	-228	+196

Eagles -4.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · -235

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +5.5, only $446 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.

Full detail

The marketEagles by 4.5the number to beat

nfeloEagles by 40.8 apart

FPIEagles by 5.50.8 apart

SagarinEagles by 6.51.6 apart

We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-162
FPI	-5.5	-196
Sagarin	-6.5	-218
Market (12 books)	-4.5	-204

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -4.5	-110	+105	-3.6%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-235	-183	-5.4%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Held

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out

Held, QB out

Held. Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

Falcons sideSteelers side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-3.0

FPI

-3.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -116 52¢	-191 64¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	42.5 -105	-181	+158

Falcons +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Held: a quarterback is out and the ratings don't know it.

Held, QB out

Falcons to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Held, QB out

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

Held, QB out

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketSteelers by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSteelers by 30.5 apart

FPISteelers by 3.50.1 apart

SagarinSteelers by 40.6 apart

We settle onSteelers by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-3.5	-149
Sagarin	-4.0	-164
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +3.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+155	+151	+0.6%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs

NFL mon 14 sep, 7:15 pm

Under 43

should be 42.2 · getting 1 pt

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 3. Nothing there.

Broncos sideChiefs side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

-3.0

We say

-3.0

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-3 +104	43 -115	-149	+131

Chiefs -3.0 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -144

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 54.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110

Massey projects 40. That's 3.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 43.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 3 more.

Full detail

The marketChiefs by 3the number to beat

nfeloChiefs by 11.9 apart

FPIChiefs by 30.3 apart

SagarinChiefs by 30 apart

We settle onChiefs by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	-3.0	-146
Sagarin	-3.0	-141
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-135

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -3.0	-110	+104	-3.4%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-144	-140	-0.6%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Record7 bets · 3-4 · -1.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How it worksand how the model is doing

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Sunday September 6

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostOle Miss Rebels -7.0Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels38-41-1.00

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

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How Sunday 6 September went

Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.

What we said	Right-wrong	Rate
Leaned, no bet	1-0	100%
Ruled out by the guardrails	1-1	50%

Game by game

RightWashington State CougarsWashington State Cougars at Washington Huskieswon by 14Leaned, no bet

WrongOle Miss RebelsLouisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebelswon by 3Ruled out by the guardrails

RightNotre Dame Fighting IrishWisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irishwon by 28Ruled out by the guardrails

How it's going

3-4Record

-1.2Units

-17.3%ROI

10Open

It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

We read 97 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 0 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.

What's changed since 4:37 pm

OffCalifornia Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange dropped off. It was California Golden Bears +3.5.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
→ 2.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
→ 2.3South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wavetoward South Alabama Jaguarsagainst the public
→ 1.9Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owlstoward Florida Atlantic Owlsagainst the public
→ 1.8Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan Broncostoward Monmouth Hawksagainst the public
→ 1.5Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass Minutementoward Sacred Heart Pioneersagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 3 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 60527 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.68 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	38	2.71
DraftKings	72	0.90
BetOnline.ag	69	0.86
LowVig.ag	66	0.81
BetMGM	69	0.76
BetRivers	86	0.67
FanDuel	102	0.62
MyBookie.ag	65	0.54
BetUS	69	0.52
TOM	68	0.46
Caesars	69	0.44
Bovada	68	0.44
Fanatics	99	0.43
Pinnacle	67	0.40

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated yesterday
FPI NFL updated today
SP+ updated yesterday
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated today
nfelo updated today

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Mon Sep 7

1. Texas A&M Aggies -14.5  -104
   [College] Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies, sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
   we make it -118, edge +3%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.