Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +10-110 at Fanatics+7.4%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +8.5 -110. Now UCF +10 -110, 1.5 points better. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 0.5 pts+9.5 open Sunnow +10Nasty Number +7Iowa at Washington▼Moved our way · 2 ptsIowa +3.5-116 (52¢) at Kalshi+3.7%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +140. Now Iowa to win +142. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts+1.5 open Satnow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5San Diego State at Oregon State▼San Diego State +14.5-105 at FanDuel+3.2%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+14.5 open Sunnow +14.5Nasty Number +13North Dakota State at UNLV▲UNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amStill a playSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Four Nasty Picks on the counter this week: UCF +10, Iowa +3.5, San Diego State +14.5 and UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
South Carolina at Florida, South Carolina +12.5. Every system has Florida by 8; the market has Florida by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Texans at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Texans by 4; the market has Texans by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 50 (South Florida at UTSA) at 3.3% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Air Force at Northern Illinois, Over 46, down 2.5 since the open.
Since the last build, Iowa at Washington slipped to A Little Nasty; San Diego State at Oregon State slipped to A Little Nasty; North Dakota State at UNLV climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: UCF at Oklahoma State, UCF +10. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Iowa at Washington▼Moved our way · 2 ptsIowa to win+142 at DraftKings+4.3%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Iowa at Washington▼Moved our way · 2 ptsIowa to win +140 at DraftKingsNasty Dog · called Tue 11:53amStill a playFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Iowa to win · +142 at DraftKings, 2 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday.Damn Near Nasty
5 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
5 more later this week
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (NC State): Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (5.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (3.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (3.1%).NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (3.2%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (2.1%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -118 (1.5%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.1%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4 for -108 at BetMGM · half a point away
Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM +7.5 at -112 (2.7%) · TOM +7.5 at -113 (2.5%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi +7.5 at -115 (2.0%) · FanDuel +7 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars +7.5 at -117 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -114 (0.6%) · DraftKings 61.5 at -115 (0.4%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -105 (0.1%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: South Florida at UTSA, Over 50. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (3.3%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -115 (3.3%) · Caesars 50 at -112 (2.8%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -120 (2.2%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 53¢ (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 49.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 50 (the games that land on 50); -115 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.7%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (1.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -115 (0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -112 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. The price wins by a hair.8 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 47.5 at -115 (0.4%) · BetMGM or DraftKings 48.5 at -105 (0.1%) · Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -112 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 46 at -112 (1.2%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 46.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-0.9%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (California): Fanatics +10 at -110 (2.7%) · TOM +9 at +100 (2.6%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings +10 at -115 (1.6%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -112 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): TOM -2 at -112 (1.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (1.1%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 51¢ (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (1.0%) · TOM 51 at -115 (0.8%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 48¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -114 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 51 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 51.5 (the games that land on 51); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -120 (0.5%) · DraftKings -7.5 at -105 (0.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 42 at -115 (0.2%) · Caesars 42.5 at -108 (0.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 56.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 52¢ (-3.5%).Moved closer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Sacramento State at Bowling Green Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Virginia Tech at California Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to +100; the market drifted 0.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - UAB at Memphis Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Air Force at Northern Illinois Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Bengals at Dolphins Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The Nasty Number moved 0.6. - Boise State at Fresno State Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Fresno State +7.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -6.0 to +6.5; the price from -116 to -110. - Bills at Rams Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Bills +4.0: 1.0 points away, was out of reach.The price from -112 to -109. - Texas at Oklahoma Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Texas -8.0: 4.2 cents short at today's line, was 5.9.The price from -113 to -105.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
2 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State at Kennesaw StateJacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB 6:00pmKennesaw State +2.5should be Kennesaw State +2.5 at Kalshi · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3 -115 | 50 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 50 +100 | +123 | -139 |
All 22 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 50 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +123 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | 49.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +122 | -142 |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +123 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 49.5 -110 | +126 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -113 | 49.5 -108 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -115 | +122 | -146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -111 | 49.5 -108 | +122 | -142 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +121 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 50 +100 | +123 | -139 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +113 | 49.5 -104 | — | -138 |
| ReBet | +3 -125 | 49.5 -114 | +121 | -148 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -115 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +2.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 74°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $163 available; Kennesaw State Owls ML, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -169 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +2.5 | +105 | -102 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +126 | +119 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB 6:30pmNew Mexico State +6.5should be New Mexico State +5.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 5.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida International by 5.5 to Florida International by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -6.5 -111 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -109 | -242 | +207 |
All 22 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -111 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -106 | 46.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 46.5 -115 | -252 | +209 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -106 | 46.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 46.5 -113 | -250 | +195 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -250 | +210 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -113 | 46.5 -115 | -235 | +192 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -106 | -245 | +198 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -130 | -250 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -114 | -252 | +209 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -238 | +189 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -109 | -242 | +207 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 45.5 | -223 | +212 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 47 -111 | -238 | +189 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 +100 | -260 | +215 |
Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida International).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $466 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -119 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (20 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +200 | +195 | +0.6% |
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +6.5 | -109 | -109 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tomorrow
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, South Florida at UTSASouth Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB tomorrow 6:30pmOver 50Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 52.2 · getting 2.2 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6.5, but at -108 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -102 | -293 | +239 |
All 22 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 49.5 -120 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| betPARX | -7 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7 -117 | 49.5 -114 | -278 | +215 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +238 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50 -112 | -280 | +230 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 50.5 -109 | -271 | +230 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -278 | +225 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 50 -108 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +236 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -102 | -293 | +239 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +104 | 49.5 | — | +245 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 49.5 -119 | -310 | +240 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $36 available; UTSA Roadrunners ML, only $285 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +235 | +212 | +2.2% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +7.0 | -108 | -115 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.5.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmWestern Kentucky to winour data says 57 in 100 · -130Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Western Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -104 | -131 | +114 |
All 22 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 56.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 56 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -134 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -114 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -104 | -131 | +114 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -116 | -136 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky to win · -130 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $68 available; Missouri State Bears ML, only $158 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -183 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -130 | -135 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5 | -111 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL tomorrow 7:15pmBuccaneers +8should be Buccaneers +8 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 8, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buccaneers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -8 -103 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8 -103 | 47.5 -108 | -446 | +353 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -103 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -500 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -8 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -103 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +337 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -500 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -500 | +380 |
| BetUS | -9 +105 | 47.5 -115 | -430 | +338 |
| Bovada | -8 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -460 | +340 |
| Caesars | -8 -107 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +360 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +370 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -550 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -101 | 47.5 -107 | -430 | +337 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -8 -103 | 47.5 -108 | -446 | +353 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 -104 | -426 | +400 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Buccaneers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Also out: Drew Shelton (OT, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -460 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -200 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -181 |
| Market (22 books) | -8.0 | -411 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 | -108 | -108 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +370 | +324 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 10-01 08:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | -564 84¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 52.5 -108 | -588 | +426 |
All 22 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | -564 84¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -14 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -14 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 -105 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +410 |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 52.5 -108 | -588 | +426 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +108 | -525 | +456 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -599 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $311 available; Over 52.5, only $17 available; Sam Houston State Bearkats ML, only $281 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -450 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -361 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty Flames -13.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames ML | -575 | -450 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Liberty played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmArkansas State -1.5should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 59 -107 | -118 | +103 |
All 22 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -0.5 -112 | 58.5 -106 | -112 | -109 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| betPARX | -0.5 -112 | 58.5 -106 | -112 | -109 |
| BetRivers | +0.5 -113 | 58.5 -107 | -113 | -110 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -109 | -117 | -102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -115 | -105 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 58.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -114 | -118 | -102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | -102 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 59 -107 | -118 | +103 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 | 59.5 +104 | -113 | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 58.5 -114 | -119 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +106 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +1.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -102 | +111 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 9
5 gamesBest: Iowa +3.5, Nasty PickIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmIowa +3.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Iowa +2.5 · getting 1 pt · -116 (52¢) at Kalshi · was +1▼Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Bet it. Iowa to win · +142 at DraftKings, 2 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -113 | -169 | +146 |
All 23 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | -180 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 41.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -116 | 41 -115 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | -180 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 41.5 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -107 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -103 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 41.5 -105 | -160 | +132 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -180 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -112 | 41 -114 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -113 | -169 | +146 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -108 | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -109 | -190 | +147 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 58°F, 37% chance of rain.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Iowa.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.4 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -3.5, only $41 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, only $45 available; Under 41.5, only $392 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +142 | +119 | +4.3% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 | -116 | -135 | +3.7% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus; total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmSan José State -6.5should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | -239 69¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -103 | 44 +100 | -232 | +194 |
All 22 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | -239 69¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -230 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -230 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -106 | 43.5 -105 | -235 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 43 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -255 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -103 | 44 +100 | -232 | +194 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | 43.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -265 | +199 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -120 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $148 available; San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $11 available; Over 43.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -290 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -299 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -188 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -6.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -225 | -236 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -109 | -175 | +151 |
All 22 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -109 | 59 -110 | -195 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -109 | 59 -110 | -195 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -195 | +155 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -107 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -106 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -106 | -184 | +152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -190 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 60 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -109 | -175 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 59.5 -104 | -170 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 59.5 -114 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $9 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $340 available; Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $276 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -189 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -170 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmWashington State +6should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 6, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.3 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Utah State by 4.5 to Utah State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -6 -106 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | — | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -199 | +169 |
All 22 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -106 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | — | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -102 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -106 | 44 -115 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 44 -115 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -121 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -112 | 44.5 -102 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -102 | 44 -114 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -242 | +192 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -199 | +169 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 -113 | -186 | +178 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -116 | 43.5 -119 | -232 | +177 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Utah State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Utah State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington State Cougars +5.5, only $378 available; Over 44.5, only $134 available; Under 44.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.2 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -130 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +6.0 | -114 | -113 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +165 | +179 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.2 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pmBYU -10.5should be BYU -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 10.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -10.5 -107 | 47 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +102 | 47.5 +101 | -401 | +312 |
All 23 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -107 | 47 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -107 | 47 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -500 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47 -105 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -105 | 47 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -106 | 46.5 -112 | -420 | +320 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | -440 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -103 | 47 -103 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -441 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +102 | 47.5 +101 | -401 | +312 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +108 | 47.5 +108 | -376 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -111 | 46.5 -116 | -469 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $18 available; Iowa State Cyclones ML, only $2 available; Iowa State Cyclones ML, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -422 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -390 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (20 books) | -10.5 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -10.5 | -107 | -101 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -381 | -369 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBest: UCF +10.0, NastiestUCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUCF +10should be UCF +7 · getting 3 pts · -110 at Fanatics · was +9.5NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +10 · -110 at Fanatics, 1.5 points better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 9, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 53 -111 | -396 | +309 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| betPARX | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 54 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -390 | +312 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 53 -115 | -410 | +305 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -114 | -350 | +275 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | -390 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -390 | +310 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -400 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 53 -111 | -396 | +309 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +113 | 53.5 +100 | — | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 52.5 -119 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +9.5, only $23 available; Over 52.5, only $32 available; UCF Knights +10.5, only $493 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -192 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +10.0 | -110 | -149 | +7.4% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +313 | +228 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5should be San Diego State +13 · getting 1.5 pts · -105 at FanDuel▼Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take San Diego State +14.5 at -105 at FanDuel. Market says Oregon State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -674 | +474 |
All 21 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +488 |
| betPARX | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -15 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -835 | +540 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +485 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +460 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -780 | +530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 53.5 -103 | -670 | +488 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -676 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -674 | +474 |
| Polymarket | -14.5 -104 | 53.5 | -614 | +525 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -699 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · San Diego State.
Kalshi thin: Oregon State Beavers -14.5, only $116 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -363 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -303 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.5 | -620 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +500 | +436 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3 +100 at TOMBet it · now UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM▲Nasty Pick · called at +3 +100Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +140 | -162 |
All 21 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47.5 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -124 | 47.5 -113 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -115 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -104 | +130 | -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +103 | 48 -106 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +134 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +140 | -162 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 47.5 -113 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 47.5 -119 | +131 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 +100 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UNLV, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: North Dakota State Bison -3.5, only $1 available; Under 48.5, only $18 available; North Dakota State Bison ML, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +150 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -117 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +131 | +120 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +150 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at Kalshi · was +2Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. NC State +3.5: FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5; the other 2 of 3 our side, 5.3% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -106 | 60 -103 | +153 | -178 |
All 21 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +142 | -162 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 60 -103 | +142 | -162 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +136 | -167 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -106 | 60 -103 | +153 | -178 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 59.5 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 59.5 -114 | +133 | -171 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -107 (50¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 59.5, only $9 available; NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $186 available; Over 59.5, only $489 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +162 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +194 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -112 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +3.5 | -107 | -133 | +5.3% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +146 | +121 | +4.5% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +162 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +1Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Texas A&M +3.5: all 3 ratings our side, 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 48 -112 | -177 | +152 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | -177 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | -170 | +140 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -180 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -189 | +152 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 48 -112 | -177 | +152 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -117 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -111 | -193 | +149 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +3.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5, only $12 available; Under 47.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -108 | -121 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +132 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +12.5should be South Carolina +10.5 · getting 2 pts at DraftKings · was +15Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. South Carolina +12.5: all 3 ratings 4.3 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -12.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 60.5 | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -101 | 61 -107 | -508 | +379 |
All 22 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 60.5 | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 61.5 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 61 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -118 | 60.5 -112 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -107 | 61 -105 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 61.5 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 61.5 -109 | -480 | +340 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 61 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 61 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -108 | 61.5 -103 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12 -110 | 61 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -106 | -500 | +375 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -125 | -525 | +375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -103 | 61 -103 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 61 -110 | -510 | +374 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -101 | 61 -107 | -508 | +379 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 +108 | -456 | +426 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -111 | 60.5 -119 | -481 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM (13h ago). Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 81°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 2.4 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -13.5, only $86 available; Over 60.5, only $40 available; Under 61.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -291 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -309 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -259 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 58.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +398 | +369 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9should be California +7.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +13▲A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 7.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +9 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -109 | 53 -112 | +298 | -379 |
All 21 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +289 | -360 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -112 | 54 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -105 | 54 -110 | +290 | -360 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53 -115 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 53.5 -108 | +280 | -355 |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -101 | 52.5 -108 | +289 | -360 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -109 | 53 -112 | +298 | -379 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +108 | 53.5 +100 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -125 | 53.5 -111 | +290 | -410 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · California.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 3.0 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears +9.5, only $21 available; Under 53.5, only $9 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -8.5, only $258 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +341 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +315 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.0 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.0 | +100 | -111 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +290 | +276 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +341 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmMiami (OH) -2should be Miami (OH) -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +110 | -127 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -113 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -113 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -114 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -103 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +110 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | 47.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -111 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -2.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $9 available; UMass Minutemen ML, only $2 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $194 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +415 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -112 | -118 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -130 | -137 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM▲A Little Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
All 21 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -116 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -318 | +244 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 43.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -114 | 44.5 -114 | -360 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 +100 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.0 · -120 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Bowling Green.
Kalshi thin: Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $101 available; Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $87 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $277 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -349 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -369 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -312 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.0 | -120 | -123 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -296 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus; total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 47.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 49 · getting 1.5 pts · was 52A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Georgia Tech too: market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6.5, but at -112 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 | +217 30¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -101 | 49 +102 | +212 | -255 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 | +217 30¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 48 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 48.5 -112 | +210 | -275 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 48 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 48.5 -103 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +220 | -270 |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -112 | +210 | -260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -108 | 47.5 -114 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +224 | -285 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -101 | 49 +102 | +212 | -255 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +104 | — | +233 | -245 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 48.5 -111 | +218 | -295 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.5 · -115 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Georgia Tech, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $24 available; Over 48.5, only $98 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.0 | -112 | -117 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +215 | +209 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -115 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.7 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmOver 46Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 47.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 47.5▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Air Force is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7 -106 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
All 21 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -106 | 46 -112 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -109 | 47.5 -104 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 47 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 46 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 | +270 | — |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 46.5 -119 | +250 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -112 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.4 away from Air Force, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $434 available; Air Force Falcons ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +317 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.0 | -114 | -116 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -295 | -280 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -112 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUnder 56.5weather: 20 mph wind and 62% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 56.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 62% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -14 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 57 -101 | -618 | +443 |
All 21 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -835 | +550 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -835 | +550 |
| BetRivers | -14 -117 | 56.5 -115 | -910 | +550 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -631 | +444 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 57 -101 | -618 | +443 |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 -117 | — | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 56.5 -114 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 71°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $248 available; Over 56.5, only $83 available; Memphis Tigers ML, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -871 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -852 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -699 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.0 | -112 | -113 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -549 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmOver 51should be 52.7 · getting 1.7 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +411 | -561 |
All 21 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +435 | -575 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +428 | -570 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 51 -112 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +435 | -570 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +410 | -550 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -114 | +400 | -550 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | +395 | -570 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 51 -114 | +428 | -570 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +411 | -561 |
| Polymarket | +13.5 | 51.5 -104 | — | -488 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | +380 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $166 available; Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +506 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +560 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +312 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +365 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +427 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +506 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 5.5, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Akron is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
All 21 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 51.5 -115 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 51.5 -113 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +215 | -265 |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -104 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -114 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +224 | -285 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 | 51.5 -108 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 51.5 -116 | +218 | -295 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 +100 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $102 available; Akron Zips +6.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -128 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +215 | +191 | +2.6% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
All 21 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -170 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights -3.5, only $16 available; Under 48.5, only $154 available; Army Black Knights -3.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -112 | -120 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +134 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 64 in 100 · -177Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 4.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Pittsburgh by 4 to Pittsburgh by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
All 22 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 47 -109 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 46.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 47.5 -106 | -178 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 46.5 -125 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -108 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -204 | +163 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 | -170 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 46.5 -119 | -208 | +160 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -177 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5, only $75 available; Over 46.5, only $124 available; Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -302 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -341 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -177 | -181 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -110 | -584 | +424 |
All 21 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -692 | +478 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -110 | -584 | +424 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -525 | +456 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -125 | 43.5 -114 | -752 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Western Michigan, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $2 available; Under 43.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -18.5 | -790 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -749 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -591 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -115 | -117 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -524 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 61 -110 | +138 | -159 |
All 21 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +141 | -161 |
| betPARX | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 61 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 61 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 61.5 -105 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 61.5 -114 | +141 | -161 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 61 -110 | +138 | -159 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 +100 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -116 | +132 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $136 available; West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5, only $262 available; Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.0 | -115 | -115 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -161 | -160 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | — | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +161 |
All 21 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | — | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 53.5 -117 | -186 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -116 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +161 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -108 | 55.5 +108 | — | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 54.5 -116 | -197 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Temple, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $17 available; Under 54.5, only $43 available; Temple Owls ML, only $281 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -175 | -170 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amIndiana -7should be Indiana -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7 -102 | 50 -105 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -109 | 50.5 -103 | +261 | -324 |
All 22 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -102 | 50 -105 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 50.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -102 | 49 -115 | +249 | -305 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 50.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +245 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7 +100 | 49 -115 | +253 | -305 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -109 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +245 | -305 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +235 | -295 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +240 | -315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +102 | 49 -114 | +249 | -305 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +250 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -109 | 50.5 -103 | +261 | -324 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 49.5 -113 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +244 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $49 available; Indiana Hoosiers -7.5, only $14 available; Under 49.5, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +290 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +228 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +186 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +380 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -118 | -108 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -305 | -262 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +290 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -37should be Northwestern -38 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -113 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37 -106 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -127 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $77 available; Under 53.5, only $82 available; Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $307 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -39.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (17 books) | -37.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -37.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -110 | -379 | +298 |
All 21 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 49.5 -120 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -420 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 50 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -118 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 50 -103 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -110 | -379 | +298 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -113 | 49.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -125 | 50.5 -111 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5, only $463 available; Over 50.5, only $100 available; Appalachian State Mountaineers ML, only $368 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -355 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -130 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -370 | -320 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20.5should be Toledo -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -114 | -1329 | +785 |
All 21 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1050 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -21 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1050 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | +1050 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | -21 -108 | 54.5 -113 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -21 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2100 | +1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1408 | +760 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -114 | -1329 | +785 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -1150 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -1493 | +720 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Toledo).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $174 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $283 available; Toledo Rockets -20.5, only $97 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -835 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1228 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -925 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1289 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -20.5 | -117 | -101 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1545 | -945 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3should be Ohio -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ohio by 3.5 to Ohio by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
All 21 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46.5 -103 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +108 | -144 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $158 available; Over 46.5, only $17 available; Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $261 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -245 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -148 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 57.5should be 60.1 · getting 2.6 pts · was 60.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1807 |
All 21 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -114 | 57.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -120 | 58 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1807 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -28.5 -111 | 58.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -115 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $17 available; Under 57.5, only $130 available; North Texas Mean Green ML, only $297 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1954 |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3124 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -1951 |
| Market (18 books) | -28.5 | -4182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1937 | +2299 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus; total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmKansas State -2.5should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
All 22 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 56 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | -145 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 55.5 -114 | -144 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $294 available; Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $67 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmIllinois -2.5should be Illinois -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Illinois by 3.5 to Illinois by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
All 21 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 48 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 48.5 -105 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -104 | 48 -103 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 47.5 -108 | +122 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -119 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 77°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Michigan State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $48 available; Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $2 available; Under 47.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +113 | +118 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNavy -2.5should be Navy -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
All 21 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | -143 | +115 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 49.5 | -133 | +117 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -138 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen -2.5, only $181 available; Over 48.5, only $17 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $465 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -113 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -206 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNotre Dame -38.5should be Notre Dame -37.5 · giving up 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38.5 -107 | 55 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38.5 -107 | 55 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -113 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 +100 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -102 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -105 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -106 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $17 available; Over 53.5, only $82 available; Under 53.5, only $77 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -33.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +38.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Stanford Cardinal ML | +4692 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8should be Texas -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +8 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -103 49¢ | 39.5 -107 50¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -113 | 39 -110 | +255 | -315 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -103 49¢ | 39.5 -107 50¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -112 | 39.5 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8 -114 | 39 -112 | +250 | -335 |
| BetUS | +8 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -105 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -335 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -125 | 39.5 -115 | +255 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -108 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +261 | -342 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -113 | 39 -110 | +255 | -315 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 38.5 -113 | — | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +250 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $122 available; Under 38.5, only $11 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +489 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +250 |
| Market (19 books) | +8.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -8.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -325 | -289 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 59 -113 | +297 | -378 |
All 21 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +10 -115 | 59 -110 | +285 | -385 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -111 | 59.5 -103 | +293 | -350 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 59.5 -105 | +285 | -360 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 59.5 -104 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -105 | 58.5 -125 | +285 | -380 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 59 -113 | +297 | -378 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +104 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 59.5 -109 | +280 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $16 available; Over 59.5, only $412 available; Under 59.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 59.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +125 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5 | -122 | -122 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +296 | +297 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -125 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; total 57.5 here against 59.0 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12should be Oregon -12 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -12 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 -110 | 58 -110 | -450 | +344 |
All 22 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -102 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +358 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -460 | +360 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +340 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 57.5 -121 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -102 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -106 | -480 | +360 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -490 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -101 | 58 -108 | -460 | +358 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -11 -110 | 58 -110 | -450 | +344 |
| Polymarket | -11.5 +100 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 56°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins +11.5, only $393 available; Over 58.5, only $75 available; Under 58.5, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -513 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -532 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.0 | -440 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.0 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -404 | -409 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -10should be East Carolina -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | — | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 47.5 -105 | -386 | +303 |
All 21 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | — | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 47.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -104 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 47.5 -105 | -386 | +303 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -117 | 47.5 +100 | -355 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -111 | -441 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward East Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $31 available; Over 45.5, only $17 available; East Carolina Pirates ML, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -371 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -344 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -10.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -375 | -351 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -109 | 56 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -122 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $50 available; Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $8 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3140 |
| Massey | -31.0 | -3916 |
| Market (17 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes -33.0 | -125 | -102 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | — | -5978 | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMarshall -3should be Marshall -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 57.5 | — | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
All 21 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 57.5 | — | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -112 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -159 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 58.5 -113 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 58.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 59.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +126 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | — | -150 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 58.5 -114 | -159 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 58.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd -3.5, only $264 available; Over 57.5, only $104 available; Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $59 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -137 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +125 | +138 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +9should be Kentucky +8 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | — | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -114 | 53 -107 | +275 | -344 |
All 22 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | — | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| betPARX | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -345 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -115 | 52.5 -120 | +270 | -360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -111 | 52.5 -108 | +274 | -340 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -114 | 53 -107 | +275 | -344 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 | 53.5 +104 | +285 | -317 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | +265 | -370 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -9.5, only $14 available; Over 52.5, only $17 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +277 here against +318 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +311 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +191 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.0 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +8.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +265 | +288 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +318 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +9.5should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +102 | +284 | -358 |
All 21 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +9 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +9 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +295 | -400 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -103 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +102 | +284 | -358 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +100 | 49.5 +100 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 49.5 -111 | +270 | -380 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5, only $83 available; Under 50.5, only $494 available; UTEP Miners ML, only $322 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +210 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.5 | -113 | -104 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +290 | +301 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +330 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -2 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -126 54¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 53.5 -101 | -115 | +101 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -126 54¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 52 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 52 -110 | -123 | +103 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 52 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 52 -108 | -123 | +103 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 53.5 -101 | -115 | +101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 51.5 -117 | — | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 52.5 -111 | -125 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F, 87% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.6 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -110 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -161 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +107 | +111 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -110 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmJames Madison -7.5should be James Madison -8.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -116 | 54 -102 | +260 | -323 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -113 | 53.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -106 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +270 | -340 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -104 | 53.5 -104 | +260 | -330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -106 | 52.5 -114 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -116 | 54 -102 | +260 | -323 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +100 | +270 | — |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | +240 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, weather, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $258 available; James Madison Dukes ML, only $389 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +297 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +11.0 | +374 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +280 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +479 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -330 | -304 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.7 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +297 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmLouisiana Tech -2.5should be Louisiana Tech -2.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 48 -106 | -148 | +129 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 47.5 -118 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 47.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -104 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 48 -106 | -148 | +129 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -104 | — | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -119 | -156 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 +100 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 78°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3.5, only $454 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $67 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +2.5, only $478 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -107 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -211 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -117 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -125 | -105 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -128 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.0 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
All 22 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| betPARX | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -121 | -104 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -118 | -102 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -125 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -103 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | — | -113 | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 54.5 -116 | -123 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $0 available; Over 55.5, only $6 available; Under 55.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -171 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +1.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +107 | +111 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.9.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9.5should be Virginia -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -112 | -362 | +287 |
All 21 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +289 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 50 -113 | -375 | +270 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50 -105 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 50 -108 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -112 | -362 | +287 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 | 49.5 -108 | — | +300 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 50.5 -111 | -400 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange +9.5, only $47 available; Under 50.5, only $18 available; Virginia Cavaliers -8.5, only $151 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -338 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -335 | -318 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2should be Minnesota -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +2 -110 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -128 |
All 21 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -114 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 51 -103 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -128 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | 51.5 +108 | +117 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | +110 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5, only $50 available; Under 50.5, only $9 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +179 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -125 | -118 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -724 | +502 |
All 21 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -113 | 51 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -850 | +570 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -780 | +510 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -724 | +502 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -104 | — | — |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 51.5 -111 | -847 | +500 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -16.5, only $154 available; Utah Utes ML, only $261 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -545 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -411 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -681 |
| Market (18 books) | -15.5 | -652 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | -113 | -102 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +570 | +549 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -20.5 -110 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 51 -104 | -1618 | +901 |
All 20 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -120 | -1600 | +1050 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -107 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -106 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -109 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -2100 | +1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 50 -105 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1587 | +800 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 51 -104 | -1618 | +901 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -117 | -1329 | — |
| theScore Bet | -21.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5, only $18 available; Over 50.5, only $95 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -471 |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1322 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -868 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.5 | -1400 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21.5 | -115 | -120 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | +1050 | +932 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -107 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6.5should be Boise State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +206 | -247 |
All 21 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -240 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +195 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +206 | -247 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 -104 | 47.5 -113 | +212 | -223 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $346 available; Boise State Broncos -6.5, only $173 available; Under 47.5, only $398 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +290 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +200 | +205 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sun Oct 11
13 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Texans at Titans, Titans +7.5.Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.2% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +147 | -177 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
All 24 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +147 | -177 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +157 | -179 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -186 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -114 | 42 -102 | +157 | -179 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +149 | -192 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 42.5 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -184 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5, only $90 available; Over 42.5, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Branson Taylor (G, Chargers) and 1 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +154 here against +167 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +155 | +141 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +154 here against +167 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +7.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Titans +6.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +6.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
All 25 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 37.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7 +100 | 37 -110 | +290 | -360 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 37.5 -108 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +306 | -385 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 37.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 37.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -117 | 37.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -106 | +293 | -350 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -108 | +285 | -360 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7 -105 | 37.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +280 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -107 | +306 | -385 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +280 | -391 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 36.5 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 37.5, only $9 available; Over 36.5, only $387 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 4 more.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +181 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +143 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 37.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +300 | +258 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -113 | -125 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +346 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmOver 42should be 43.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 46.5▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 42.0. Massey and FPI say over by 2.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +7 -107 | 42 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 42.5 -112 | +277 | -335 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | +290 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -107 | 42 -115 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | +290 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | +290 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 43 -105 | +270 | -340 |
| Caesars | +7 -105 | 42.5 -108 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +7 -106 | 42.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -355 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | +285 | -405 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -105 | 42 -113 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 42.5 -112 | +277 | -335 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 | 42.5 -108 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.0 · -115 at TOM (13h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Dolphins).
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -7.5, only $142 available; Miami Dolphins +6.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Reese Taylor (CB, Dolphins).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.0 | +339 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +343 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +375 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +303 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | -113 | -111 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -345 | -315 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +3.5should be Ravens +2.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2.5, but the market has moved 9.7 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 6.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 6.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ravens is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 44 -103 | -181 | +159 |
All 24 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -115 | -181 | +158 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -176 | +148 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -176 | +148 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -170 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +102 | 43.5 -113 | -181 | +158 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -184 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 44 -103 | -181 | +159 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | — | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.7 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $20 available; Under 43.5, only $301 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $348 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Durham Smythe (TE, Ravens), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +206 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +126 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | -117 | -143 | +4.9% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +145 | +123 | +4.0% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.7 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers +3should be Packers +2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2, but the market has moved 5 points away from Packers since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 5.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 5.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Packers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +3 -120 | 45.5 -113 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +134 41¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 46 -102 | +140 | -159 |
All 25 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 45.5 -113 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +134 41¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -118 | 46 -108 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 45.5 -113 | +136 | -156 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -117 | 45.5 -112 | +129 | -152 |
| Courtside | +3 -113 | 45.5 -110 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 45.5 -112 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -110 | +132 | -156 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +136 | -156 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 46 -102 | +140 | -159 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +113 | 46.5 +108 | +138 | -144 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -153 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -115 | 46.5 -105 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 5.0 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Braxton Jones (OT, Bears), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Packers).
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +148 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -120 |
| FPI | -1.0 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +187 |
| Massey | -1.5 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +135 | +115 | +4.0% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +3.0 | -115 | -131 | +3.2% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +148 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7.5should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.8 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -104 | 42.5 +103 | -357 | +292 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -385 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -385 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -385 | +300 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -7 -120 | 42 -108 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 41.5 -119 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -105 | -355 | +280 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7 -115 | 41.5 -115 | -355 | +285 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -375 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -104 | 42 -107 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -400 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -104 | 42.5 +103 | -357 | +292 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 42.5 +108 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $390 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Bigsby (RB, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 2 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +290 | +265 | +1.7% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +3.5should be Giants +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Commanders by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 44 +104 | -190 | +165 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 43 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -190 | +160 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -188 | +164 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 43 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 43 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -182 | +151 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -106 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -105 | -188 | +164 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -195 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 44 +104 | -190 | +165 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 +100 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -187 | +157 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 +100 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F, 49% chance of rain.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants +3.5, only $397 available; Under 43.5, only $271 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jaylin Lane (WR, Commanders), Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants), Brian Burns (LB, Giants).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +105 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.5 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +164 | +154 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 47 +105 | -157 | +138 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -107 | 46 -112 | -157 | +137 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -154 | +132 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -113 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 46.5 -115 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -102 | 46 -109 | -157 | +137 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -169 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 47 +105 | -157 | +138 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +117 | 46.5 +100 | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -120 | -162 | +137 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 46.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 57°F.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -2.5, only $46 available; Under 46.5, only $17 available; San Francisco 49ers +3.5, only $80 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers) and 4 more.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +138 | +126 | +2.3% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | -113 | -120 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
All 25 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 40 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -105 | 40 -109 | -140 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 39.5 -118 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -126 | +108 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -120 | 40 -104 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -138 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
| Polymarket | — | 40.5 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 40.5 -109 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets -1.5, only $71 available; New York Jets -1.5, only $82 available; Cleveland Browns +1.5, only $277 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -122 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -124 | -108 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -130 | -114 | -3.4% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmSteelers -1should be Steelers -2 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 1, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Steelers by 2 to Steelers by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -146 | +121 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -146 | +121 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 44 -114 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -113 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 44.5 -113 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -146 | +114 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 44.5 -104 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Colts, now Not Nasty. The line went from -2.5 to -1.0.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $99 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers), Jamel Dean (CB, Steelers) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | -105 | +108 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -134 | -115 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 45 -108 | -197 | +172 |
All 25 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -190 | +160 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -193 | +168 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 45 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -192 | +160 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 44.5 -115 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -112 | 45 -107 | -193 | +168 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -202 | +156 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 45 -108 | -197 | +172 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 45.5 +104 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -194 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $23 available; New England Patriots -3.5, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -240 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -180 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -204 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -188 | -184 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -2should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 2, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 +101 | 42 -104 | +123 | -139 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +117 | -137 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +117 | -137 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1 +100 | 42 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 42 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -117 | 42 -108 | +109 | -129 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -101 | 42 -104 | +117 | -137 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +106 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2 +101 | 42 -104 | +123 | -139 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +108 | 41.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -129 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Donovan Jackson (G, Vikings).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +116 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +201 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +191 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -2.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -125 | -123 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -113 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5should be Lions -5.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 -105 | +216 | -254 |
All 25 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -109 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -109 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | +199 | -240 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +210 | -258 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -118 | 54.5 -108 | +190 | -230 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -107 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +193 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 -105 | +216 | -254 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 -104 | 54.5 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | +202 | -244 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +5.5, only $14 available; Under 54.5, only $62 available; Detroit Lions -5.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hunter Long (TE, Cardinals), Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +199 here against +233 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +222 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +196 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +275 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +111 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.0 | +199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -5.5 | -104 | +101 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -240 | -216 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +199 here against +233 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmBills +3should be Bills +3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (13h ago) | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
All 25 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +142 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 54 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -159 | +134 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 54.5 -116 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +136 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -158 | +134 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 54.5 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | — | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $32 available; Over 54.5, only $106 available; Under 54.5, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -131 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -107 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -109 | -109 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +132 | +137 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-10-1 | 47.4% | -1.7 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 28-32 | 46.7% | -6.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 233 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-07 03:07.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 198 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 289 |
| SP+ | 11.25 | 226 |
| FPI | 11.27 | 226 |
| Massey | 11.32 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.41 | 279 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 172 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 169 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 172 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 198 |
The line archive, 289 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 99, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 274 games. The close misses the final by 11.06, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.55, Pinnacle's close by 11.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 47 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 9.44 | 64 |
| Massey | 9.48 | 47 |
| FPI | 9.79 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 9.81 | 64 |
| nfelo | 9.93 | 63 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 47 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
The line archive, 64 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.65 points better than the close on average over 59 games. The close misses the final by 9.66, the open by 9.71, our raw ratings number by 9.91, Pinnacle's close by 9.67. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.65, Polymarket 8.60, Bally Bet 9.15.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 155 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 90.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 155 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 155 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 90. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Under | 52.1 | 52.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Over | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona +5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 240 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 177 | 13.6 | 55-66 (45%) | 35-36 (49%) |
| Massey | 179 | 13.0 | 39-45 (46%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 182 | 13.0 | 40-47 (46%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 54 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 50 | 11.1 | 13-18 (42%) | 4-7 (36%) |
| FPI | 47 | 10.6 | 10-5 (67%) | 6-2 (75%) |
| The blend | 50 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 20 | 56% | 50% |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 72 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.
What's changed since Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am
- MovedIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies switched from the moneyline to the spread: now Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 at -116.
- MovedWake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack is now NC State Wolfpack +3.5, was NC State Wolfpack +4.0.
- MovedUCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys is now UCF Knights +10.0, was UCF Knights +8.5.
- NewSan Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State Beavers is now A Little Nasty: San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 at -105.
- OffNorth Dakota State Bison at UNLV Rebels dropped off. It was UNLV Rebels +3.0.
- NewChicago Bears at Green Bay Packers is now Not Nasty: Green Bay Packers +3.0 at -115.
- OffNew York Giants at Washington Commanders dropped off. It was New York Giants +4.5.
- MovedBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons is now Baltimore Ravens +3.5, was Baltimore Ravens +3.0.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.8Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguarstoward Jacksonville Jaguarswith the public
- → 3.3Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggiestoward Utah State Aggieswith the public
- → 2.8Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Greentoward North Texas Mean Greenwith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 3%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 245 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 63 | 9.93 |
| The market | 353 | 10.81 |
| Massey | 216 | 10.92 |
| FPI | 274 | 11.01 |
| SP+ | 226 | 11.25 |
| Sagarin | 343 | 11.92 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 155-147 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-11 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 906291 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.29 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.58 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.53 |
| betPARX | 256 | 1.49 |
| Bally Bet | 256 | 1.48 |
| Kalshi | 261 | 1.47 |
| BetRivers | 464 | 1.46 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 433 | 1.40 |
| LowVig.ag | 423 | 1.40 |
| Courtside | 219 | 1.37 |
| MyBookie.ag | 357 | 1.35 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 256 | 1.26 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.25 |
| Fanatics | 400 | 1.23 |
| Caesars | 348 | 1.16 |
| BetUS | 362 | 1.16 |
| theScore Bet | 252 | 1.15 |
| Bovada | 432 | 1.12 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.09 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.08 |
| Pinnacle | 433 | 1.07 |
| Fliff | 204 | 1.06 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.04 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 0.91 |
| Polymarket | 103 | 0.78 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 2 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ unchanged for 9 days
- Sagarin updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.