Nasty Picks
A pick posted here stays here until kickoff and is graded at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
App State at East CarolinaApp State +7.5 -110Nasty Pick · called Tue 4:52pmDon't chaseSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted App State +7.5 -110 on Tuesday; now App State +6.5 · -110 at TOM, a point worse. If you already have it at +7.5, you're set. If it gets back to +7.5, it's a play again.Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Middle Tennessee at MarshallMiddle Tennessee +13-110 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 · 1 point awayJets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: San Diego State at UCLA, Under 55. The total has come up 3.4 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
San Diego State at UCLAMoved our way · 3.4 ptsUnder 55should be 54 · getting 1 ptSat 6:15pm Buck's case ›Duke at IllinoisMoved our way · 2.5 ptsOver 51should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Arizona State at Texas A&MMoved our way · 1.2 ptsOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Arizona at BYUMoved our way · 1 ptOver 48.5should be 49.2 · getting 0.7 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Arkansas at UtahMoved our way · 1 ptOver 55.5should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 ptsSat 9:15pm Buck's case ›Stony Brook at Ball StateStony Brook +13.5should be Stony Brook +11.5 · getting 2 ptsSat 1:00pm Buck's case ›Tennessee at Georgia TechOver 55.5should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Falcons at SteelersOver 41should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›Wake Forest at PurduePurdue +3should be Purdue +2 · getting 1 ptSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Mississippi State at MinnesotaMinnesota PKshould be Minnesota -1 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Friday, but 2 come damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.
Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13. Every system has Marshall by 6.5; the market has Marshall by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Stony Brook at Ball State Stony Brook +13.5 the strongest at 4.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Arkansas at Utah, Over 55.5, down 1 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Tell the group chat it was your idea.
Buck
Tomorrow
80 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East CarolinaCFB tomorrow 11:00amApp State +7.5 -110Don't chase · now App State +6.5 · -110 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +7.5 -110Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 6.5, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 6. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but App State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -255 | +212 |
All 13 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -114 | 56.5 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | -260 | +215 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -113 | 56.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -265 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -255 | +202 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -255 | +212 |
Marked: best for App State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is App State to win · +190 at TOM. A price bet, App State loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 3.0 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -115 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -179 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +190 | +187 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +6.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at MarshallCFB tomorrow 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +13should be Middle Tennessee +11 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +17.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -112 | 57 -105 | -591 | +428 |
All 14 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 57 -110 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13 -109 | 57 -114 | -560 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 56.5 -112 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 57 -103 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -594 | +411 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -112 | 57 -105 | -591 | +428 |
Marked: best for Middle Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 79°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 4.7 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -252 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -361 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +375 | +332 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.7 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at IllinoisCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOver 51should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.5 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 5.5, but at +200 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -112 | 51 -115 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -107 | 51.5 -109 | -228 | +192 |
All 14 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -112 | 51 -115 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -112 | 51 -115 | -250 | +207 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -114 | 51.5 -112 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| Caesars | -6 -109 | 51.5 -112 | -240 | +196 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -108 | 51 -114 | -250 | +207 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -244 | +194 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -107 | 51.5 -109 | -228 | +192 |
Marked: best for Duke, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -239 here against -205 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -140 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -239 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | +200 | +177 | +2.7% |
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils +6.0 | -108 | -111 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -239 here against -205 consensus.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia TechCFB tomorrow 6:00pmOver 55.5should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Georgia Tech too: market says Tennessee by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 10.5, but at -105 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -107 | +350 | -480 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -108 | 56 -103 | +380 | -508 |
All 14 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -107 | +350 | -480 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| BetMGM | +12 -108 | 55.5 -108 | +380 | -500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -107 | +370 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +12 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -105 | 56 -110 | +378 | -480 |
| Bovada | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +375 | -525 |
| Caesars | +11.5 -104 | 55.5 -114 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -112 | +370 | -485 |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -104 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -101 | 55.5 -105 | +370 | -480 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -108 | 56 -103 | +380 | -508 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Georgia Tech, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.0 | +608 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +244 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +11.5 | +366 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +11.5 | -105 | -112 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +350 | +321 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -107 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-07 14:15; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLACFB tomorrow 6:15pmUnder 55should be 54 · getting 1 pt · was 51.5A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 3.4 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San Diego State too: market says UCLA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 11, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.4 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -115 | 55 -106 | -495 | +372 |
All 13 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -500 | +383 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -113 | 55 -112 | -590 | +375 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -12 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -480 | +375 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55 -107 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -120 | -580 | +420 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 55 -108 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 55 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -115 | 55 -106 | -495 | +372 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -12.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -478 here against -396 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has San Diego State +12.5 while Pinnacle is at UCLA by 11.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -190 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -616 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -12.5 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +12.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +370 | +328 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 13:17; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.9 consensus; moneyline -478 here against -396 consensus.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball StateCFB tomorrow 1:00pmStony Brook +13.5should be Stony Brook +11.5 · getting 2 pts · was +15.5A Little Nasty · Stony BrookBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Stony Brook. Market says Ball State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ball State by 11.5. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Stony Brook ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -125 | 55 +100 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -113 | 55 -105 | -665 | +413 |
All 10 books
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Stony Brook ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -125 | 55 +100 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -125 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -910 | +575 |
| Bovada | -14 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -125 | 55 -112 | -750 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 54.5 -118 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -106 | 55.5 -106 | -750 | +520 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -125 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -113 | 55 -105 | -665 | +413 |
Marked: best for Stony Brook, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Stony Brook +13.5 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F, 23% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -15.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward Stony Brook, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -197 |
| Massey | rates Stony Brook and Ball State on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -13.5 | -469 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stony Brook Seawolves +13.5 | +105 | -115 | +4.8% |
| Moneyline | Stony Brook Seawolves ML | +440 | +346 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Nasty Undercard. Only Sagarin and Massey rate FCS teams, and we've never measured either against FCS closing lines. This call is recorded and graded like any other, never a pick.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at PurdueCFB tomorrow 11:00amPurdue +3should be Purdue +2 · getting 1 pt · was +4.5A Little Nasty · PurdueBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Purdue. Market says Wake Forest by 3, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2. At -106 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Purdue is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 50 -115 | +129 | -154 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 50 -107 | +136 | -157 |
All 14 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 50 -115 | +129 | -154 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 50 -115 | +134 | -154 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 50.5 -118 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 50 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 50 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -109 | 49.5 -117 | +132 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 49.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 50 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 49.5 -115 | +126 | -152 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 50 -114 | +134 | -154 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +129 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 50 -107 | +136 | -157 |
Marked: best for Purdue, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Purdue +3.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Purdue, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +141 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +3.0 | -106 | -110 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +129 | +126 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 17:09.
TOM matches the consensus.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYUCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOver 48.5should be 49.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says BYU by 7.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 48.5 -106 | -296 | +242 |
All 14 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -280 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -107 | 48 -110 | -335 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -106 | 48 -110 | -295 | +240 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -101 | 48.5 -114 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 48.5 -106 | -296 | +242 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -240 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats +7.5 | -115 | -118 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | +220 | +222 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&MCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts · was 52.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1.2 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 15, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15 -105 | 50.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -109 | -679 | +478 |
All 13 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15 -105 | 50.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -700 | +505 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -108 | 51 -109 | -910 | +510 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -700 | +500 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -720 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -15 -101 | 50.5 -114 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 50.5 -109 | -679 | +478 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -728 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -603 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -571 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -15.0 | -513 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -15.0 | -105 | -113 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -700 | -546 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB tomorrow 9:15pmOver 55.5should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arkansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12 -110 | 55.5 -107 | -495 | +371 |
All 13 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +364 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +370 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | -500 | +375 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -485 | +370 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +385 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12 -110 | 55.5 -107 | -495 | +371 |
Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -450 here against -394 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -368 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (11 books) | -11.5 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 62.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +11.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +340 | +339 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus; moneyline -450 here against -394 consensus.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at MinnesotaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmMinnesota PKshould be Minnesota -1 · getting 1 pt · was +1A Little Nasty · MinnesotaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Minnesota. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.1 points since it opened, from 55.6 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -110 | 55 -107 | -105 | -109 |
All 14 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| BetMGM | -1 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -110 | -108 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -0.5 -114 | 55.5 -108 | -114 | -109 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -115 | 55 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 54.5 -114 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 54.5 -112 | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 55 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -122 | 54.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -106 | 54.5 -106 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -110 | -111 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -110 | 55 -107 | -105 | -109 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota PK · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $71 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread PK here against +0.6 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.
MyBookie.ag still has Mississippi State +1.5 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 1. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +154 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers PK | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread PK here against +0.6 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at ArmyCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 46should be 47.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 50A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 3.9 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3 to Army by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -104 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 +105 47¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -116 | 46.5 -102 | -161 | +139 |
All 14 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -104 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 +105 47¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -104 | 46 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -106 | 46.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -117 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 46.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 45.5 -110 | -164 | +136 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +104 | 46 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -177 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -116 | 46.5 -102 | -161 | +139 |
Marked: best for the Army side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -163 here against -149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -223 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -166 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 53.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -3.5 | -104 | +109 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -170 | -145 | -3.7% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus; total 46.0 here against 46.2 consensus; moneyline -163 here against -149 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at PittsburghCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUnder 56should be 55.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 56.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -113 | 56 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 56.5 -108 | -279 | +230 |
All 14 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -113 | 56 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 56.5 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -113 | 56 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7 -113 | 56.5 -110 | -315 | +235 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 56.5 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 56.5 -112 | -265 | +215 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -109 | 56 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 56.5 -108 | -279 | +230 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward UCF).
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $73 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -261 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -7.0 | -113 | +110 | -5.4% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -280 | -213 | -5.6% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 16:07; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UABCFB tomorrow 2:30pmOver 53.5should be 55.1 · getting 1.6 pts · was 56A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, the Nasty Number says UAB by 10. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 +107 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -108 | 54 -111 | -374 | +295 |
All 14 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 +107 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 +107 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -335 | +245 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 54 -115 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -107 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -365 | +285 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 53.5 -114 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -108 | 54 -111 | -374 | +295 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward UL Monroe). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.2 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -951 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -232 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.0 | -127 | -107 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +275 | +295 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-06 17:09; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.2 consensus; total 53.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North TexasCFB tomorrow 2:45pmOver 57.5should be 58.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 58A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 57.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UNLV by 5 to UNLV by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 57.5 -120 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 57.5 -114 | +137 | -159 |
All 14 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 57.5 -120 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 58.5 -102 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 57.5 -120 | +135 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 57.5 -107 | +133 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 58 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 58 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -105 | 58.5 -107 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 58 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 58.5 -105 | +134 | -162 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -104 | 57.5 -119 | +135 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 58 -110 | +132 | -163 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 57.5 -114 | +137 | -159 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -120 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward North Texas).
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +435 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +207 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +137 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 64.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels -3.0 | -112 | -104 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | -155 | -143 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -120 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 11:46.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmOver 54.5should be 55.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 50A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kennesaw State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Kennesaw State by 8.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 4.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 4.2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 4.2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -360 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 54 -114 | -336 | +269 |
All 13 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -360 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -360 | +289 |
| BetRivers | -8 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -335 | +265 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 54 -114 | -336 | +269 |
Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 36% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Georgia State).
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -344 here against -284 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -738 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -274 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls -8.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | -360 | -252 | -6.6% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-06 16:26; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus; moneyline -344 here against -284 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam HoustonCFB tomorrow 6:00pmOver 50.5should be 51.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 52.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1.6 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +375 | -525 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -113 | 51 -115 | +403 | -547 |
All 14 books
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +375 | -525 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| BetMGM | +13 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -525 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | +460 | -715 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +405 | -525 |
| Bovada | +13 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +400 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | +410 | -550 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +440 | -610 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | +400 | -525 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -113 | 51 -115 | +403 | -547 |
Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.0 | +691 |
| FPI | +11.0 | +331 |
| Sagarin | +11.5 | +358 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -115 | +105 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +375 | +422 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida AtlanticCFB tomorrow 6:30pmOver 58.5should be 59.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4, the Nasty Number says Navy by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 58.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -113 | +166 | -194 |
All 14 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 58.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 58.5 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 58.5 -114 | +150 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -115 | 59 -105 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | +169 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | +170 | -205 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -101 | 58.5 -105 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +165 | -206 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -113 | +166 | -194 |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 83°F, 48% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Florida Atlantic).
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +451 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +396 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 64.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -4.0 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -190 | -170 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -107 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'iCFB tomorrow 11:00pmOver 49.5should be 50.1 · getting 0.6 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 7, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 50 -105 | -309 | +250 |
All 13 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| BetMGM | -7 -120 | 49.5 -112 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 49.5 -114 | -295 | +220 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -105 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 49.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -310 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 49.5 -115 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 49.5 -108 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 50 -105 | -309 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -302 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -237 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.0 | -115 | +108 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -290 | -217 | -5.9% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida InternationalCFB tomorrow 5:00pmBuffalo to winour data says 28 in 100 · +295 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 9, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -405 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 48 +101 | -397 | +310 |
All 14 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -405 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| BetMGM | -10 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -405 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -405 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -400 | +305 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -106 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -101 | 47.5 -103 | -405 | +320 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -410 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 48 +101 | -397 | +310 |
Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buffalo to win · +295 at TOM. A price bet, Buffalo loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -388 here against -331 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -103 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -208 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -388 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -115 | -130 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +295 | +258 | +2.6% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus; total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -388 here against -331 consensus.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise StateCFB tomorrow 5:00pmMemphis +8should be Memphis +7.5 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Memphis is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.4 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -335 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -104 | 56 -112 | -344 | +275 |
All 13 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -335 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 55.5 -120 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -335 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 56 -114 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -8 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -335 | +272 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 56 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | -335 | +270 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -111 | 56.5 -106 | -335 | +270 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -340 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -104 | 56 -112 | -344 | +275 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis +8.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Memphis, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.8 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -176 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -234 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -275 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.0 | -105 | -122 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +260 | +225 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -108 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-06 13:17; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.8 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Kent State by 11, our data says Kent State by 8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 11, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 8, but the raw ratings sit 10 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -11.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Wofford, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | rates Wofford and Kent State on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -11.0 | -395 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wofford Terriers +11.0 | -110 | -151 | +7.7% |
| Moneyline | Wofford Terriers ML | +375 | +233 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.6.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neither TOM nor Kalshi has this market yet, so there's nowhere to take it.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at MichiganCFB tomorrow 11:00amMichigan to winour data says 39 in 100 · +170 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Oklahoma by 6 to Oklahoma by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -116 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 43.5 -109 | +172 | -202 |
All 14 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -116 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -116 | 43.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 43.5 -109 | +163 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | +170 | -205 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +166 | -198 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -117 | 43.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +185 | -232 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 43.5 -109 | +172 | -202 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan to win · +170 at TOM. A price bet, Michigan loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Michigan).
BetRivers still has Michigan +5.5 while Pinnacle is at Oklahoma by 4.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +218 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +115 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +170 | +155 | +2.2% |
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +4.5 | -116 | -113 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Michigan Wolverines since 09-06 17:00.
TOM matches the consensus.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at TulaneCFB tomorrow 6:00pmSouth Alabama to winour data says 27 in 100 · +295 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Tulane by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 10.5 to Tulane by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points since it opened, from 50.9 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -111 | 50 -110 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +100 | 49.5 -109 | -407 | +316 |
All 14 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -111 | 50 -110 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -10 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -117 | 50 -110 | -385 | +306 |
| BetRivers | -10 -109 | 49.5 -109 | -420 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -385 | +308 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -10 -105 | 49.5 -114 | -390 | +305 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 49.5 -115 | -395 | +310 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 50.5 -106 | -410 | +315 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -113 | 50 -108 | -385 | +306 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +100 | 49.5 -109 | -407 | +316 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama to win · +295 at TOM. A price bet, South Alabama loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -10.2 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -193 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -342 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -311 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +295 | +268 | +1.8% |
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +9.5 | -109 | -109 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -10.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at IowaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmIowa -14should be Iowa -14.5 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa by 14, the Nasty Number says Iowa by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 41.5 -107 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 41 -108 | -609 | +438 |
All 13 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 41.5 -107 | -600 | +430 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 41.5 -102 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 41.5 -107 | -600 | +446 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 40.5 -112 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 41 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 41.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 41.5 -102 | -575 | +425 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 41.5 +100 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 40.5 -122 | -670 | +470 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 41.5 -105 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 41 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 41 -108 | -609 | +438 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -574 here against -470 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -700 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -728 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -600 | -493 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -107 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.1 consensus; moneyline -574 here against -470 consensus.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUTSA to winour data says 50 in 100 · +102 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas State by 1.5 to Texas State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -110 | 66 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 66 -108 | -120 | +104 |
All 13 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -110 | 66 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 66.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -110 | 66 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -2 -113 | 66.5 -115 | -129 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 66 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 66 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -114 | 66.5 -108 | -122 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 66.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 66 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -106 | 66.5 -105 | -128 | +106 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -111 | 66 -108 | -122 | +102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 66.5 -110 | -122 | +100 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 66 -108 | -120 | +104 |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UTSA to win · +102 at TOM. A price bet, UTSA loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +249 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +119 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -117 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.0 | 71.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +102 | +102 | +0.1% |
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +1.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 66.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.5 consensus.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at KentuckyCFB tomorrow 2:30pmKentucky +10should be Kentucky +10Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +316 | -407 |
All 14 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +316 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +10 -114 | 48.5 -112 | +310 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +320 | -400 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +310 | -415 |
| Caesars | +10 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +305 | -390 |
| DraftKings | +10 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +310 | -395 |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 48.5 -105 | +290 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +316 | -400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +320 | -429 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +316 | -407 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +10.0 · -109 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +273 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +460 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +245 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +324 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +10.0 | -109 | -109 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +310 | +287 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern IllinoisCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNorthern Illinois +5should be Northern Illinois +5 · was +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 5, the Nasty Number says Illinois State by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +5.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Northern Illinois, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | rates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | +5.0 | +181 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +5.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +164 | +165 | -0.2% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Illinois State Redbirds since 09-08 16:04.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Neither TOM nor Kalshi has this market yet, so there's nowhere to take it.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North CarolinaCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says North Carolina by 35.5, our data says North Carolina by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Carolina by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | East Tennessee State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -108 | 54.5 -104 | — | — |
All 10 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | East Tennessee State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35 -115 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -107 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -110 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -104 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -108 | 54.5 -104 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F, 37% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | — |
| Massey | rates East Tennessee State and North Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -35.5 | -3582 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Tennessee State Buccaneers +35.5 | -110 | +136 | -10.1% |
| Moneyline | East Tennessee State Buccaneers ML | +3500 | — | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb at LibertyCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Liberty by 27.5, our data says Liberty by 25.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Liberty by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 | -2580 96¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 | -2580 96¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -107 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5 -112 | 55.5 -106 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | — | +1500 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -114 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Liberty).
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $329 available; Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $347 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -720 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Liberty on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -27.5 | -1497 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +27.5 | -110 | +125 | -7.9% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1500 | +2257 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Liberty Flames since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at IndianaCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Indiana by 56.5, our data says Indiana by 58Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 56.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -56.5 -110 | 64.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 65.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -57.5 -107 | 65.5 -118 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -56.5 -110 | 64.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 65.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -56.5 -115 | 64.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -56.5 -110 | 65.5 -108 | — | — |
| Bovada | -57.5 -105 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -56.5 -109 | 65.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -56.5 -110 | 65.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -56.5 -110 | 65 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -56.5 -110 | 65.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -56.5 -115 | 64.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -57.5 -107 | 65.5 -118 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -56.0, now -57.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Indiana).
TOM: spread -56.5 here against -57.1 consensus.
TOM: total 64.5 here against 65.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Howard | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Howard | |
| Sagarin | -61.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Howard and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -56.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -56.5 | -110 | +131 | -9.0% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -56.5 here against -57.1 consensus; total 64.5 here against 65.4 consensus.
The line is -56.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James MadisonCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says James Madison by 45.5, our data says James Madison by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 45.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45.5 +110 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45.5 -112 | 55.5 -117 | — | — |
All 11 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45.5 +110 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -45.5 -101 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -46 -109 | 55.5 -118 | — | — |
| Bovada | -45.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -45.5 -106 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -45.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -45.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -45.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45.5 -112 | 55.5 -117 | — | — |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $438 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Wagner and James Madison on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wagner Seahawks +45.5 | -130 | -195 | +9.6% |
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.4 consensus.
The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 17.5, our data says Kansas State by 17.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 6 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 23.5 to Kansas State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -107 | 49.5 +101 | -969 | +625 |
All 13 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -900 | +613 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -110 | 49 -112 | -1115 | +650 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -900 | +600 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -108 | 49.5 -107 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | -1000 | +650 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1250 | +740 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | -900 | +613 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1099 | +650 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -107 | 49.5 +101 | -969 | +625 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Washington State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -558 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -724 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.5 | -667 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +17.5 | -110 | +115 | -5.9% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +650 | +715 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-06 17:00; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amUnder 55.5should be 55 · getting 0.5 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon by 22.5 to Oregon by 23. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2.3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2.3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2.3 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -105 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -111 | 55.5 -105 | +1019 | -1941 |
All 13 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -105 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +23 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +1150 | -2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +23 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +1156 | -2500 |
| BetRivers | +23.5 -112 | 55.5 -112 | +1050 | — |
| BetUS | +23 -105 | 55 -110 | +1175 | -2500 |
| Bovada | +23 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +950 | -2000 |
| Caesars | +23 -109 | 55.5 -107 | +1100 | -2500 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +1100 | -2100 |
| Fanatics | +23.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +1050 | -1800 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +1060 | -2300 |
| LowVig.ag | +23 -101 | 55.5 -103 | +1156 | -2500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +23.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +1072 | -2549 |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -111 | 55.5 -105 | +1019 | -1941 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 36% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +22.5, now +23.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Oregon).
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.5 | +1122 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1383 |
| Sagarin | +23.5 | +1721 |
| Massey | PK | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.0 | +1098 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +23.0 | -105 | +135 | -8.7% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +1086 | +1502 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-06 17:00; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.4 consensus.
The line is +23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia TechCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 19.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 18 to Virginia Tech by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.3 points since it opened, from 50.8 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -106 | 48 -111 | -1121 | +695 |
All 14 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 48.5 -102 | -1100 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -1300 | +795 |
| BetRivers | -19 -109 | 48.5 -115 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 48 -105 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -1300 | +725 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -106 | 48.5 -106 | -1200 | +700 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | -1200 | +750 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -114 | 48.5 -105 | -1250 | +740 |
| LowVig.ag | -19.5 -106 | 47.5 -114 | -1300 | +795 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -1205 | +690 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -106 | 48 -111 | -1121 | +695 |
Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Virginia Tech).
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1153 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -750 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1217 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.5 | -755 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +19.5 | -110 | +127 | -8.4% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +750 | +949 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-06 18:05; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at TempleCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 51should be 51.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 49.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 23.5 to Penn State by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -111 | 51 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -105 | 51 -109 | +1160 | -2358 |
All 13 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -111 | 51 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +24 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +1400 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -113 | 51 -115 | +1256 | -3000 |
| BetRivers | +24 -113 | 51 -109 | +1400 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -110 | 51 -115 | +1300 | -3000 |
| Bovada | +24 -110 | 51 -110 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +24 -112 | 50.5 -115 | +1200 | -2500 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -102 | 50.5 -118 | +1300 | -2800 |
| Fanatics | +24 -110 | 51 -110 | +1300 | -2500 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -102 | 50.5 -115 | +1400 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -109 | 51 -114 | +1256 | -3000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1130 | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -105 | 51 -109 | +1160 | -2358 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +22.5 | +1469 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1411 |
| Sagarin | +26.0 | +2418 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -105 |
| Market (12 books) | +24.0 | +1255 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +24.0 | -111 | +137 | -10.5% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1278 | +1740 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at GeorgiaCFB tomorrow 11:45amNo betmarket says Georgia by 40, our data says Georgia by 40Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 40.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia by 39 to Georgia by 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 53.4 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40 -105 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -40.5 -112 | 55 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -40 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -39.5 -112 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40 -106 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40 -105 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Georgia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | — |
| FPI | -38.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -157 |
| Market (11 books) | -40.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs -40.0 | -105 | +101 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-06 12:32; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central MichiganCFB tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Central Michigan by 22, our data says Central Michigan by 19Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Central Michigan by 22.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Central Michigan by 21 to Central Michigan by 22. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22 -125 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -21.5 -113 | 49.5 -107 | -1881 | +801 |
All 11 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22 -125 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | -1429 93¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -22 -125 | 48.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -22 -112 | 48.5 -118 | — | +1150 |
| Bovada | -22 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -1800 | +850 |
| Caesars | -21.5 -110 | 49.5 -106 | -2500 | +1000 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -112 | 49.5 -102 | -1650 | +950 |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -22 -125 | 48.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -21.5 -113 | 49.5 -107 | -1881 | +801 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -25.0, now -21.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Colgate).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $15 available; Colgate Raiders ML, only $399 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -22.0 here against -21.7 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 49.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Massey | rates Colgate and Central Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -22.0 | -945 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colgate Raiders +22.0 | +105 | -109 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Colgate Raiders ML | +1000 | +872 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -22.0 here against -21.7 consensus; total 48.5 here against 49.3 consensus.
The line is -22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)CFB tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Miami (OH) by 30.5, our data says Miami (OH) by 25.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami (OH) by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | +2243 4¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -30.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -31.5 -114 | 50.5 -121 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -30.5 -113 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -30.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami (OH) side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $338 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -495 |
| Massey | rates Holy Cross and Miami (OH) on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -30.5 | -2053 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Holy Cross Crusaders +30.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Holy Cross Crusaders ML | +2095 | +2354 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross Crusaders since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at AkronCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Akron by 27.5, our data says Akron by 25Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Akron by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 44 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -108 | 44 -115 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 44 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -115 | 44 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -115 | 43.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | — | +1400 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | — | +1500 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -115 | 44 -110 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -114 | 43.5 -115 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -115 | 44 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -108 | 44 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Robert Morris).
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $322 available; Under 43.5, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -608 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Akron on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -27.5 | -1935 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +27.5 | -110 | +121 | -7.1% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +1900 | +2157 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-08 16:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at SyracuseCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Syracuse by 3 to Syracuse by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -111 | 56 -118 | -183 | +157 |
All 14 books
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -180 | +157 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 56.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -108 | 56.5 -117 | -182 | +152 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 57 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -108 | 56.5 -114 | -178 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 56.5 -114 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -182 | +147 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -111 | 56 -118 | -183 | +157 |
Marked: best for the Syracuse side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -256 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange -3.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | -180 | -151 | -4.1% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 15:31; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut at ToledoCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Toledo by 36, our data says Toledo by 32.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 36.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -35.0, now -36.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Toledo).
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| Sagarin | -24.0 | -1893 |
| Massey | rates Central Connecticut and Toledo on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -36.0 | -3582 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Connecticut Blue Devils +36.0 | -110 | +110 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Central Connecticut Blue Devils ML | +3500 | +6967 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 2.0.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at ColoradoCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Colorado by 34.5, our data says Colorado by 32Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Weber State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 54.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -112 | 55.5 -107 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Weber State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 54.5 -125 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -105 | 55.5 -106 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -115 | 54.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -112 | 55.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2445 |
| Massey | rates Weber State and Colorado on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -34.5 | -2757 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Weber State Wildcats +34.5 | -110 | +126 | -8.2% |
| Moneyline | Weber State Wildcats ML | +2677 | +6535 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17.5, our data says Michigan State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Michigan State by 17 to Michigan State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -108 | 50 -111 | -1012 | +645 |
All 13 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -1000 | +661 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 | -1250 | +650 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 50 -115 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -107 | 49.5 -113 | -1000 | +625 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -900 | +600 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 | -1000 | +640 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -101 | 49.5 -108 | -1000 | +661 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -108 | 50 -111 | -1012 | +645 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -18.0, now -17.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Eastern Michigan).
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -877 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -902 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1227 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.5 | -676 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.5 | -105 | -122 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -1000 | -767 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 09-06 16:07; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConnCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Maryland by 11.5, our data says Maryland by 11.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Maryland by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Maryland by 13.5 to Maryland by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 52 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -115 | 52 -107 | +346 | -453 |
All 14 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 52 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 52 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +340 | -460 |
| Caesars | +11.5 -109 | 52 -110 | +350 | -460 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 52.5 -105 | +350 | -455 |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +350 | -465 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 52 -103 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +360 | -490 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -115 | 52 -107 | +346 | -453 |
Marked: best for the UConn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus.
DraftKings still has Maryland -11.5 while Pinnacle is at Maryland by 12.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +430 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +241 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +443 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | +11.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +11.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +340 | +342 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre DameCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUnder 55should be 54.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 52.5Not NastyMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 45.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 44.5 to Notre Dame by 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -115 | 55 -107 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -45 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -114 | 55 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -45 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -120 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -44.5 -113 | 54.5 -117 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -45 -111 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -115 | 55 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
TOM: spread -45.0 here against -44.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -39.5 | — |
| FPI | -41.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (11 books) | -45.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +45.0 | -105 | -176 | +12.6% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.5.
TOM: spread -45.0 here against -44.6 consensus.
The line is -45.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at MassachusettsCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Massachusetts by 23.5, our data says Massachusetts by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Massachusetts by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -109 | 53.5 -110 | -2458 | +930 |
All 11 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -114 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1400 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -2500 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -23.5 -113 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1100 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -2400 | +1200 |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -2200 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -104 | 53.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -23.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -109 | 53.5 -110 | -2458 | +930 |
Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $407 available; Under 53.5, only $352 available; Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $354 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -288 |
| Massey | rates Sacred Heart and Massachusetts on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -23.5 | -1082 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacred Heart Pioneers +23.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Sacred Heart Pioneers ML | +1200 | +949 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at WashingtonCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUnder 55.5should be 54.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5Not NastyMoved our way · 4.5 ptsBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Washington by 23.5 to Washington by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -109 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27 -111 | 55.5 -108 | — | +1609 |
All 13 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -109 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -27 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -3000 | +1700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -109 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1550 |
| BetRivers | -27 -112 | 55.5 -112 | — | +1900 |
| BetUS | -27 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Caesars | -27 -113 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | — | +1600 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -105 | 55.5 -108 | — | +1550 |
| MyBookie.ag | -27.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1389 |
| Pinnacle | -27 -111 | 55.5 -108 | — | +1609 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Washington).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2370 |
| FPI | -22.0 | -1398 |
| Sagarin | -34.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (12 books) | -27.0 | -1659 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +27.0 | -111 | +146 | -11.9% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1600 | +2623 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at TroyCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says Troy by 22.5, our data says Troy by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -456 |
| Massey | rates Alabama State and Troy on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -22.5 | -966 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama State Hornets +22.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Alabama State Hornets ML | +1000 | +1020 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New MexicoCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says New Mexico by 41.5, our data says New Mexico by 39.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 41.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41.5 -111 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
All 10 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -115 | 52.5 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -113 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -41.5 -113 | 52.5 -121 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41.5 -115 | 52.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41.5 -111 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $81 available; Under 53.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and New Mexico on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +41.5 | -110 | -190 | +13.2% |
The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at WyomingCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says Wyoming by 22.5, our data says Wyoming by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wyoming by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -2129 | +860 |
All 10 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 +101 48¢ | -1684 94¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| Bovada | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Caesars | -22.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | -2500 | +1000 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -1650 | +950 |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -2129 | +860 |
Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 78°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -22.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Northern Colorado).
Kalshi thin: Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $353 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -473 |
| Massey | rates Northern Colorado and Wyoming on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -22.5 | -997 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Colorado Bears +22.5 | -110 | +102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Northern Colorado Bears ML | +1000 | +1030 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Northern Colorado Bears since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.4.
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMUCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says SMU by 29.5, our data says SMU by 29Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 29.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | UC Davis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | UC Davis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -29.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28.5 -114 | 58.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5 -109 | 58.5 -117 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | — | +1600 |
| Fanatics | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | — | +2200 |
| LowVig.ag | -29.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -29.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 100°F.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -29.5 (the market moved 4.9 toward SMU).
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $86 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -3188 |
| Massey | rates UC Davis and SMU on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -29.5 | -1734 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UC Davis Aggies +29.5 | -110 | +143 | -11.3% |
| Moneyline | UC Davis Aggies ML | +1800 | +3906 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward SMU Mustangs since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at VanderbiltCFB tomorrow 3:15pmOver 55should be 55.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -115 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -1478 | +846 |
All 14 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -115 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 54.5 -125 | -1200 | +875 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -21 -114 | 54.5 -112 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Caesars | -21 -110 | 54.5 -113 | -1450 | +800 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1350 | +800 |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | -2100 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -103 | 55 -103 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1493 | +770 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -1478 | +846 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.0 | -1348 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -507 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2136 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -886 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +20.5 | -105 | +125 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +836 | +1006 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -21.0 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at FloridaCFB tomorrow 4:30pmNo betmarket says Florida by 50.5, our data says Florida by 49Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 50.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 66.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -108 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 66.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51.5 -115 | 66.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -50.5 -110 | 66.5 -109 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -50.5 -112 | 65.5 -118 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -51.5 -105 | 66.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -106 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -50.0, now -50.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Florida).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| Sagarin | -45.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Campbell and Florida on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -50.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Campbell Fighting Camels +50.5 | -110 | -178 | +11.7% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Florida Gators since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -50.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at OhioCFB tomorrow 5:00pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 50.5 -103 | -132 | +115 |
All 13 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 50.5 -109 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -136 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -134 | +112 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | -133 | +113 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -136 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 50.5 -103 | -132 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 79% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ohio).
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +216 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -113 | +104 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +113 | +125 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red WolvesWest Georgia at Arkansas StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Arkansas State by 31.5, our data says Arkansas State by 28Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arkansas State by 31.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Arkansas State).
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| FPI | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -498 |
| Massey | rates West Georgia and Arkansas State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -31.5 | -2461 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Georgia Wolves +31.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | West Georgia Wolves ML | +2897 | +3356 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-10 10:21.
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at NebraskaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUnder 50.5should be 49.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 52Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 30.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Nebraska by 28.5 to Nebraska by 30. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.4 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -103 49¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -107 | 50 -115 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -103 49¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1787 |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -30.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Caesars | -30.5 -107 | 50.5 -108 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 51 -105 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -30 -111 | 50.5 -108 | — | +1787 |
| MyBookie.ag | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1525 |
| Pinnacle | -30 -107 | 50 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -29.0, now -30.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Nebraska).
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.0 | -2949 |
| FPI | -28.5 | -3564 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (12 books) | -30.0 | -2012 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +30.0 | -105 | +150 | -11.3% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +1793 | +4358 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-06 18:05; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at CincinnatiCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Cincinnati by 36.5, our data says Cincinnati by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 36.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -112 | 61 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 25% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $205 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2565 |
| Massey | rates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -36.5 | -2740 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Carolina Catamounts +36.5 | -110 | +131 | -9.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Carolina Catamounts ML | +3000 | — | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 22% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -258 |
| Massey | rates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -20.5 | -812 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds ML | +850 | +790 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Missouri State by 16.5, our data says Missouri State by 15Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Missouri State by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri State by 15. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -16.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -320 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -16.5 | -592 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +16.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +600 | +520 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.3.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South CarolinaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 43.5, our data says South Carolina by 43Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 43.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -43.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -43.5 -115 | 56 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43 -112 | 55 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -43.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -43.5 -109 | 55.5 -120 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -108 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -43 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -106 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -43.5 -115 | 56 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -43.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -43.0, now -43.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward South Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Towson | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Towson | |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Towson and South Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Towson Tigers +43.5 | -110 | -165 | +9.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at WisconsinCFB tomorrow 6:15pmNo betmarket says Wisconsin by 40, our data says Wisconsin by 43Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 40.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40 -115 | 49 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -110 | 49.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -40 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -40 -112 | 49.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -39.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -39.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40 -115 | 49 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -37.0, now -40.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward Wisconsin).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -40.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wisconsin Badgers -40.0 | -110 | -132 | +4.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB tomorrow 6:30pmUnder 55.5should be 54.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -107 | 55.5 +105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 +101 | 55 -109 | -1362 | +799 |
All 14 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -107 | 55.5 +105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +756 11¢ |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -107 | 55.5 +105 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20 -105 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -105 | 55 -110 | -1500 | +775 |
| Caesars | -20 -108 | 55.5 -104 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -115 | 55.5 -102 | -1200 | +750 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -103 | 55.5 +106 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | -1442 | +752 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 +101 | 55 -109 | -1362 | +799 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -125 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -21.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -430 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -652 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.0 | -846 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +20.0 | -113 | +111 | -5.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +809 | +838 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -125 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 17:09; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal CarolinaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 34.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 30Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35 -114 | 52.5 -118 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -102 | 53.5 -106 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 31% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Coastal Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $14 available; Under 53.5, only $417 available; Fordham Rams ML, only $407 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -928 |
| Massey | rates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -34.5 | -3068 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fordham Rams +34.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams ML | +3000 | +4733 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSUCFB tomorrow 6:30pmUnder 55.5should be 54.3 · getting 1.2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -107 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -109 | 56 -108 | — | — |
All 14 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -107 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -107 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35.5 -109 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35 -110 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -102 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 +100 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -103 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -35 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -109 | 56 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 29% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward LSU).
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4206 |
| FPI | -32.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -34.0 | — |
| Massey | -3.5 | -148 |
| Market (12 books) | -35.0 | -4208 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0 | -113 | +146 | -12.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4900 | +9597 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at TexasCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1, our data says Texas by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1, the Nasty Number says Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 1.5 to Texas by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 49.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -107 | 50 -103 | -118 | +103 |
All 13 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 49.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -115 | 49.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -120 | -105 |
| BetUS | -1 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -122 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -122 | +104 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -111 | 49.5 -106 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -128 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -107 | 50 -103 | -118 | +103 |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.4 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +129 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -130 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.0 | -105 | +104 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +105 | +109 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.4 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmUnder 53should be 51.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51Not NastyMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 25.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas Tech by 26.5 to Texas Tech by 25.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26 -113 | 53.5 -105 | +1340 | -2948 |
All 13 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +25.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +1550 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +1296 | -3200 |
| BetRivers | +26.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | +1700 | — |
| BetUS | +26 -110 | 54 -110 | +1300 | -3000 |
| Bovada | +25.5 -110 | 53 -115 | +1100 | — |
| Caesars | +25.5 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +1500 | — |
| DraftKings | +25.5 -108 | 53.5 -102 | +1400 | -3200 |
| Fanatics | +25.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +1500 | -3000 |
| FanDuel | +26.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +25.5 -106 | 53 -108 | +1296 | -3200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +26 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +1075 | -3030 |
| Pinnacle | +26 -113 | 53.5 -105 | +1340 | -2948 |
Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +25.0, now +26.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Texas Tech).
TOM: spread +25.5 here against +25.9 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1701 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1669 |
| Sagarin | +27.5 | +3118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (12 books) | +25.5 | +1409 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +25.5 | -110 | +134 | -9.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1369 | +2091 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Texas Tech Red Raiders since 09-06 17:27; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread +25.5 here against +25.9 consensus; total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.
The line is +25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB tomorrow 6:45pmUnder 57should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52Not NastyMoved our way · 4.6 ptsBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -105 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -33 +100 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -105 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| BetMGM | -32.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -105 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33 -105 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33 +100 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -33 -109 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | — | +2200 |
| Fanatics | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -101 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -33 -110 | 57 -110 | — | +1650 |
| Pinnacle | -33 +100 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -30.0, now -33.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward Auburn).
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -609 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -33.0 | -2425 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0 | -115 | +109 | -5.7% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +2400 | +4081 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -108 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 17:31; total has moved up 4.5.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole MissCFB tomorrow 6:45pmNo betmarket says Ole Miss by 46, our data says Ole Miss by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 46.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 47.5 to Ole Miss by 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46 -105 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45.5 +102 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46 -105 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -45.5 -108 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -46 -105 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -46 -113 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -45.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -45.5 +100 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -45.5 -106 | 59.5 -118 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -45.5 -105 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -45.5 -104 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45.5 +102 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -46.5, now -45.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Charlotte).
TOM: spread -46.0 here against -45.5 consensus.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 59.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.5 | — |
| FPI | -35.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -5.0 | -175 |
| Market (10 books) | -46.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +46.0 | -115 | -200 | +13.2% |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread -46.0 here against -45.5 consensus; total 60.0 here against 59.7 consensus.
The line is -46.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at BaylorCFB tomorrow 7:00pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 37.5, our data says Baylor by 36.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -113 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -37.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Across the books: opened -38.0, now -37.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Prairie View A&M).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Prairie View A&M Panthers +37.5 | -110 | +150 | -12.4% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Prairie View A&M Panthers since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB tomorrow 8:00pmNo betmarket says UTEP by 25.5, our data says UTEP by 23Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 25.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 | -2580 96¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +1131 |
All 10 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 | -2580 96¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -25.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -25.5 -113 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +1200 |
| Caesars | -25.5 -112 | 52.5 -118 | — | +1400 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -25.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -25.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +1131 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 96°F.
Across the books: opened -27.0, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Texas Southern).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $277 available; Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $494 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -480 |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -25.5 | -1335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +25.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +1448 | +1605 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Texas Southern Tigers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.
The line is -25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB tomorrow 9:00pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 2, our data says North Dakota State by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +108 | -128 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -103 | +108 | -124 |
All 13 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +108 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +108 | -128 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | +110 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 47.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +108 | -128 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -128 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -103 | +108 | -124 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.
DraftKings still has North Dakota State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at North Dakota State by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -108 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +150 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.0 | +113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +2.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +108 | +119 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB tomorrow 9:30pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +100 | 45 -110 | -1023 | +650 |
All 13 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -108 | 44.5 -115 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -110 | 45 -107 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -18 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetUS | -18 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -18 -114 | 44.5 -117 | -1200 | +675 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -950 | +625 |
| Fanatics | -18 -110 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -1100 | +680 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -106 | 45 -105 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -1299 | +730 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +100 | 45 -110 | -1023 | +650 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -457 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -451 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.0 | -703 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.0 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +700 | +655 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -107 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB tomorrow 9:30pmNo betmarket says Montana State by 3.5, our data says Montana State by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Nevada).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +233 |
| Massey | rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | +3.5 | +158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana State Bobcats -3.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Montana State Bobcats ML | -170 | -159 | -1.5% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-08 16:04.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB tomorrow 10:00pmNo betmarket says USC by 31, our data says USC by 30Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 31. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 59.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -104 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
All 14 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -104 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -31.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -31 -104 | 59.5 -105 | — | +1787 |
| BetRivers | -31 -110 | 59 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -31 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31 -115 | 59.5 -105 | — | +1600 |
| Caesars | -31 -109 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -31.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -31.5 -104 | 59.5 -105 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -31 +100 | 59.5 -103 | — | +1787 |
| MyBookie.ag | -31 -110 | 59 -110 | — | +1725 |
| Pinnacle | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -29.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward USC).
Kalshi thin: Under 59.5, only $474 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2334 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2649 |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4325 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.0 | -2225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -116 | +144 | -12.8% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2500 | +4685 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West VirginiaCFB tomorrow 12:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | UT Martin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | UT Martin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -115 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42 -108 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -41.5 -117 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -118 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -114 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 26% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -42.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward West Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Massey | rates UT Martin and West Virginia on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western MichiganCFB tomorrow 5:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 | -3476 97¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -120 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -27 -114 | 53.5 -109 | — | +1500 |
| Bovada | -27.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5 -108 | 52.5 -117 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -2800 | +1300 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -120 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Western Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $15 available; Monmouth Hawks ML, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Massey | rates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -27.5 | -1525 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Western Michigan Broncos since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.7.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at HoustonCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -51.5 -103 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -51.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51 -113 | 61 -108 | — | — |
| Bovada | -51.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -51.5 -107 | 61.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -51.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -51.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -49.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -51.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -51.5 -103 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $339 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Massey | rates Southern and Houston on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -51.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCUCFB tomorrow 7:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Massey | rates Grambling and TCU on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José StateCFB tomorrow 8:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Massey | rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -20.5 | -846 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Sep 13
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -108 | -112 | -101 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetUS | PK -120 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 38.5 -112 | -122 | +103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -112 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -123 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -108 | -112 | -101 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.
Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -146 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -144 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans PK | -116 | -112 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -119 | -112 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmOver 41should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Steelers by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 41 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 41 -108 | -269 | +227 |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 41 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 41 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 41 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| BetRivers | -6 -113 | 41 -109 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 41 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -6 -108 | 41 -112 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -265 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -6 -105 | 41 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 40.5 -115 | -280 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -110 | 41 -107 | -260 | +215 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -270 | +212 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 41 -108 | -269 | +227 |
Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 2.8 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
QB questionable: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), DeShon Elliott (S, Steelers) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -184 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -249 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +210 | +191 | +2.1% |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +5.5 | -105 | -111 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmOver 44.5should be 45.3 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 +100 | 45 -106 | +106 | -120 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 45 -108 | +105 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -113 | 45 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -117 | +103 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -102 | -118 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 45 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -114 | 44.5 -118 | +100 | -118 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 44.5 -107 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 45 -110 | +100 | -122 |
| Pinnacle | +1 +100 | 45 -106 | +106 | -120 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +105 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | +100 | +101 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +105 | +107 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 47should be 46.3 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -121 53¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -121 53¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 +100 | 47 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 47 -113 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3 -105 | 47.5 -102 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -107 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +141 | -174 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers +2.5, only $235 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 1 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +125 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +128 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +135 | +140 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 50should be 49 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 4.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -115 | -321 | +266 |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 49.5 -118 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -108 | 50 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -110 | 49.5 -113 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 49.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -108 | 49.5 -112 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 50 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -115 | -321 | +266 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 2 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -107 | +116 | -5.4% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -310 | -241 | -5.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL Sun 13 Sep, 3:25pmUnder 47should be 45.8 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +102 | 47 -111 | -466 | +367 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +393 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 47 -113 | -480 | +350 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -8 -115 | 47 -115 | -490 | +355 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -102 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -490 | +380 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 47 -113 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -505 | +356 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +102 | 47 -111 | -466 | +367 |
Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Kaleb Proctor (DT, Cardinals).
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -391 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -307 |
| FPI | -10.0 | -361 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | -515 | -330 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -105 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 15:31.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -391 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 3:25pmUnder 46should be 44.8 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -123 | 46 -115 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -119 | 46 -110 | -126 | +112 |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -123 | 46 -115 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -123 | 46 -115 | -127 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -109 | 46 -113 | -124 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1 -115 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 46.5 -107 | -124 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -122 | +104 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -119 | 46 -113 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -123 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -119 | 46 -110 | -126 | +112 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +115 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | +103 | +103 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +107 | +109 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -105 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmColts +3should be Colts +3 · was +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
All 14 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 48 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +153 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 48 -108 | +143 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -102 | 47.5 -117 | +149 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -123 | 48 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +142 | -175 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +125 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | +100 | -105 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +145 | +140 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 50 -111 | -200 | +174 |
All 14 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +174 |
| BetRivers | -4 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 50 -115 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 50.5 -109 | -205 | +171 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -112 | -205 | +172 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -107 | 50.5 -102 | -200 | +174 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -206 | +165 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 50 -111 | -200 | +174 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -171 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -158 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -191 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | -112 | +111 | -5.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -200 | -155 | -5.9% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +100 | 40.5 -102 | -403 | +325 |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 40.5 -107 | -400 | +310 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -105 | 40 -120 | -420 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 40.5 -104 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +101 | 40 -109 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +100 | 40.5 -102 | -403 | +325 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars -9.5, only $1 available; Under 40.5, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 1 more.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -311 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -283 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.5 | -116 | -113 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +319 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -112 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL Sun 13 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
All 14 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 40.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 40.5 -107 | -159 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 40 -113 | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 39.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 40.5 -107 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 40 -110 | -173 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -179 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 | -113 | -102 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -165 | -148 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL Sun 13 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 44.5 -102 | -244 | +208 |
All 14 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -250 | +205 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 44 -113 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -110 | 44 -107 | -247 | +205 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -255 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 44.5 -102 | -244 | +208 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Also out: Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Andre' Sam (S, Eagles) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -236 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 | -115 | +107 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -247 | -189 | -5.8% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL Sun 13 Sep, 7:20pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 47.5 -116 | +141 | -160 |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +139 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -115 | 47.5 -113 | +132 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 48 -108 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -113 | 48 -112 | +134 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +102 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 48 -105 | +139 | -159 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -120 | 48 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 47.5 -116 | +141 | -160 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.0 | -113 | -106 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +134 | +138 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pmUnder 43.5should be 42.4 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +101 | -137 | +122 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -143 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 | -138 | +118 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -148 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +101 | -137 | +122 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 5 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -150 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | -116 | -111 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -145 | -137 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 17
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at PittsburghCFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 59.5should be 58.3 · getting 1.2 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $33 available; Syracuse Orange ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -282 |
| FPI | -10.0 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -302 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (1 books) | -10.5 | -312 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +10.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +295 | +306 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 51.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 51.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F, 32% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -3.5, only $1 available; Detroit Lions ML, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 1 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -141 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (7 books) | -3.0 | -156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -3.0 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -170 | -146 | -3.6% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Sep 18
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas TechCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:00pmTexas Tech -13.5should be Texas Tech -13.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas Tech -13.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Kalshi thin: Texas Tech Red Raiders ML, only $77 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -510 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -478 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -451 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (1 books) | -13.5 | -475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -630 | -451 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 53.5should be 51.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 52.5Waiting for the ratings updateMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1684 94¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +20.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Miami).
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| Market (1 books) | +20.5 | +838 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Sep 19
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at ArkansasCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 52.5should be 54.5 · getting 2 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1684 94¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1627 |
| FPI | +20.5 | +1098 |
| Sagarin | +18.5 | +828 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -114 |
| Market (1 books) | +17.5 | +630 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs -17.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | -1150 | -796 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at ClemsonCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNorth Carolina to winour data says 33 in 100 · +295 · a price bet, they lose more often than notA Little Nasty · North Carolina, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is North Carolina to win · +295. A price bet, North Carolina loses more often than not.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $164 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -118 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -278 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (1 books) | -8.5 | -312 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +8.5 | -110 | -140 | +6.0% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +295 | +202 | +7.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at AlabamaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 51should be 50.1 · getting 0.9 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -557 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -723 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -751 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -141 |
| Market (2 books) | -17.5 | -684 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +17.5 | -110 | +113 | -5.5% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +651 | +705 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at LouisvilleCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Louisville by 2, our data says Louisville by 2WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals ML, only $110 available; SMU Mustangs ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -112 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -110 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -124 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (2 books) | -2.0 | -110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs +2.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | +100 | +121 | -4.7% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South CarolinaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 7.5, our data says South Carolina by 8WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $10 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -279 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -276 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -224 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (1 books) | -7.5 | -255 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks -7.5 | -110 | +114 | -5.6% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | -298 | -230 | -5.1% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at AuburnCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 52should be 49.7 · getting 2.3 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $94 available; Florida Gators ML, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +276 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +117 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (2 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +2.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +114 | +128 | -2.9% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at NorthwesternCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Northwestern by 3.5, our data says Northwestern by 5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $60 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -233 |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -263 |
| Massey | rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -3.5 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | -170 | -167 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole MissCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 58should be 56.8 · getting 1.2 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
All 3 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +108 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +231 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +197 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -106 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (2 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU Tigers -2.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers ML | -135 | -132 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at MarylandCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 2, our data says Virginia Tech by 1.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +105 47¢ | -143 57¢ |
All 3 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +105 47¢ | -143 57¢ |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +112 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +156 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (2 books) | +2.0 | +112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +106 | +119 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre DameCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says Notre Dame by 29WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -28.0 | -3404 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3351 |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3831 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -143 |
| Market (2 books) | -29.5 | -2167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 54.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +29.5 | -110 | +146 | -11.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +2095 | +4027 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Virginia CavaliersWest Virginia at VirginiaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm · neutralUnder 53should be 51.7 · getting 1.3 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -340 76¢ | +240 28¢ |
All 3 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -340 76¢ | +240 28¢ |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -310 | +245 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -600 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -368 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -207 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -106 |
| Market (2 books) | -8.5 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -8.5 | -110 | +111 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -317 | -257 | -4.1% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas TechCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 14, our data says Texas Tech by 14WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -510 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -478 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -451 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (1 books) | -14.0 | -447 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +14.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.5% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +425 | +471 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
Every call the board made, graded on what it said at kickoff. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Sunday September 6
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSaturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 units9 picks voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Michigan State Spartans (spread), Michigan Wolverines (moneyline), Arkansas Razorbacks (spread), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (spread), Ohio State Buckeyes (moneyline), Minnesota Golden Gophers (moneyline), California Golden Bears (moneyline), Texas A&M Aggies (spread), San Diego State Aztecs (spread).
1 pick voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: Texas State Bobcats (spread).
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not Nasty | 3 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Scoreboard
Loading scores...
How it's going
It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 16 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 110 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 20 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 6:55pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.3Howard Bison at Indiana Hoosierstoward Indiana Hoosierswith the public
- → 0.6Towson Tigers at South Carolina Gamecockstoward South Carolina Gamecockswith the public
- → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 7 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 210852 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.98 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 39 | 3.03 |
| BetMGM | 74 | 1.19 |
| BetOnline.ag | 108 | 1.04 |
| BetRivers | 140 | 1.01 |
| LowVig.ag | 104 | 1.01 |
| DraftKings | 129 | 0.96 |
| FanDuel | 155 | 0.95 |
| MyBookie.ag | 70 | 0.94 |
| BetUS | 71 | 0.92 |
| Caesars | 113 | 0.91 |
| Fanatics | 141 | 0.89 |
| TOM | 83 | 0.89 |
| Bovada | 108 | 0.67 |
| Pinnacle | 107 | 0.60 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated 3 days ago
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated yesterday