Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsBACK THU
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1 ptOhio -3-115 at Fanatics+4.0%Sat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 9:14am at -3 -110. Now Ohio -3 -115. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt-4 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -5Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech▼Pittsburgh +3.5-114 at FanDuel+3.9%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +3.5 -107. Now Pittsburgh +3.5 -114. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 2 pts+5.5 open Frinow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7-104 at Caesars+3.6%Sat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +7 -102. Now Cincinnati +7 -104. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+7 open Sunnow +7Nasty Number +6Temple at South FloridaMoved our way · 3 ptsSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -110 at Caesars. The number is a point worse, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better.Texas State at San Diego State▼San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Mon 10:33pmDon't chaseSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel on Monday; now San Diego State +4 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is half a point worse and the price is 4 cents worse, from -106 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +4.5, you're set. It's a play again at +4.5 -106 or better.
Buck's Take
Five Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Ohio -3, Pittsburgh +3.5, Cincinnati +7, South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars and San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Read the receipt before you bet it.
UCF at Houston, UCF +12.5. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +4.5. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.5.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Massachusetts -6.5 (Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts) at 5.6% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5, down 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech slipped to A Little Nasty; Cardinals at Giants climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Texas State at San Diego State slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Ohio at Kent State, Ohio -3. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
4 more later this week
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Baylor): Caesars +4.5 at -114 (7.6%) · DraftKings +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (7.4%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (7.1%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 53¢ (6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Commanders): Caesars or TOM +3.5 at -105 (2.8%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +3.5 at -107 (2.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.9%).NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Giants): TOM +1.5 at +100 (2.4%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Caesars +1.5 at -107 (0.7%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (0.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (0.0%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -110 at Fanatics · 1.5 points away
Where, best first (UCF): Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.7%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 50¢ (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Western Kentucky at New Mexico State, Western Kentucky +2.5. The line has moved 1.5 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Misses the Cut: needs 3% after the price.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Kentucky): TOM +2.5 at -104 (0.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.14 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Caesars 58.5 at -112 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.2%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (4.1%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.5%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 52¢ (3.3%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (1.9%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel or Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.1%).Points or price: 50.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 51.5 (the games that land on 51); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in). The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13 at -108 (1.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 51¢ (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -6.5 at -105 (5.6%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -108 (4.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -110 (4.4%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM -6.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (3.8%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Michigan State): Caesars +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +10 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.8%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 53¢ (-0.9%).Points or price: +10.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10 (the games that land on 10); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (0.6%) · Caesars or Kalshi 48.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 48 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -120 (-1.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.6%) · TOM 48 at -113 (1.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (1.4%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.1%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 48); -113 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): TOM +6 at +101 (1.0%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +6.5 at -107 (0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.0%).Points or price: +6.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +6 (the games that land on 6); -107 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than +101. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +14 at -102 (0.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +14.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +14.5 at -120 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.7%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 54¢ (-2.3%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (49ers to win): TOM -145 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -148 (0.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -150 (0.1%) · FanDuel -154 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 51.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 46¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Moved closer since the Tue 29 Sep, 6:06pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Tue 29 Sep, 6:06pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Cardinals at Giants Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -110 to +100. - Ohio State at Iowa Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -105 to -102. - San José State at Hawai'i Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -3.0 to -2.5; the price from -102 to -115. - Broncos at 49ers Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -120 to -118. - Rams at Eagles Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Dog at Eagles +132: 4.1 cents short, was 6.0. - West Virginia at Iowa State Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Iowa State -3.5: 27.7 cents short at today's line, was 29.0.The price from +100 to +105.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Tomorrow
3 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Western Kentucky, Western Kentucky at New Mexico StateWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico StateCFB tomorrow 7:00pmWestern Kentucky +2.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM▼A Little Nasty · Western KentuckyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Kentucky. Market says New Mexico State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Western Kentucky's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 58 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 57.5 -106 | -133 | +116 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 58 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -108 | 57 -113 | -130 | +107 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 58 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2 -108 | 57 -113 | -130 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -2 -109 | 57 -114 | -132 | +106 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -107 | -134 | +114 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -130 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 58 -108 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -136 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 57.5 -106 | -133 | +116 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 57.5 -114 | -136 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky +2.5 · -104 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Western Kentucky. The line went from -3.0 to -2.5.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -103 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +182 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +118 | +112 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5 | -104 | -108 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 4.1.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmBrowns +2.5should be Browns +2 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings PredictionsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -101 | 38.5 -110 | +122 | -147 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +104 | 38 -117 | +131 | -148 |
All 26 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -101 | 38.5 -110 | +122 | -147 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 38 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -101 | 38.5 -110 | +127 | -147 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +127 | -147 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 38.5 -110 | +123 | -145 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -103 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -105 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 39.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -108 | 38.5 -102 | +120 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +104 | 38.5 -107 | +127 | -147 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +118 | -145 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +104 | 38 -117 | +131 | -148 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 38.5 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -120 | 38.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +2.5 · 48¢ on the app (-101 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 24% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 38.5, only $127 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers), DeShon Elliott (S, Steelers).
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +147 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 37.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | -101 | -104 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +122 | +120 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 38.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.2 consensus.
North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at TulsaCFB tomorrow 8:00pmTulsa -1should be Tulsa -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -114 | -106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 57.5 -103 | -116 | +101 |
All 22 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -114 | -106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -110 | 57.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -1 -110 | 57.5 -108 | -115 | -105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -114 | -106 |
| betPARX | -1 -110 | 57.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | -105 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 57 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1 -108 | 57.5 -115 | -118 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -110 | -110 | -106 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -112 | -112 | -108 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -104 | 57.5 -108 | -114 | -106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -116 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 57.5 -103 | -116 | +101 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -109 | 57.5 -114 | -116 | -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward North Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -179 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +132 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.0 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +1.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +100 | +102 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 2
3 gamesBest: Pittsburgh +3.5, Nasty PickPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +3.5should be Pittsburgh +2.5 · getting 1 pt · -114 at FanDuel · was +6▼Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Pittsburgh +3.5 at -114 at FanDuel. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -163 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +102 | 54.5 -115 | -168 | +144 |
All 22 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -163 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 55 -107 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 55.5 -108 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -163 | +143 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 55 -107 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -106 | 54.5 -115 | -175 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 55 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 54.5 -117 | -164 | +139 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 54.5 -114 | -163 | +143 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -176 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +102 | 54.5 -115 | -168 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | -180 | +140 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Pittsburgh.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.4 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +120 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 | -114 | -134 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +140 | +120 | +3.8% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at DelawareCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmDelaware +7should be Delaware +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +230 | -290 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +229 29¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 +100 | 50 -109 | +238 | -291 |
All 21 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +230 | -290 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +229 29¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +235 | -285 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | +230 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +237 | -290 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +225 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Bovada | +7 +100 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -117 | 50 -110 | +225 | -280 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -121 | 49.5 -119 | +236 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +7 -102 | 50.5 -105 | +230 | -285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 49.5 -114 | +225 | -280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +104 | 50 -106 | +237 | -290 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7 +100 | 50 -109 | +238 | -291 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 49.5 -116 | +240 | -330 |
Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +7.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Liberty Flames -7.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +267 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +180 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +193 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +7.0 | +100 | -109 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +230 | +224 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -108 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +267 consensus.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -2.5should be Penn State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 +105 47¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 45.5 -106 | +123 | -141 |
All 22 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 +105 47¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -106 | 45 -112 | +118 | -148 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | 45.5 -112 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -102 | 45.5 -106 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 45.5 -108 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +116 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 45 -114 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +121 | -149 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -115 | 45.5 -106 | +123 | -141 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | +115 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $391 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +120 here against +131 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +269 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 | -115 | -105 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -135 | -127 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus; moneyline +120 here against +131 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 3
54 gamesBest: Ohio -3.0, NastiestOhio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Ohio -5 · getting 2 pts · -115 at Fanatics · was -3.5NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Ohio -3.0 at -115 at Fanatics. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 | — | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 50.5 -113 | +137 | -159 |
All 21 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 50.5 | — | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +125 | -157 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +125 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -109 | +125 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 51 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 50.5 -112 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -114 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +125 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 50.5 -114 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -101 | 50.5 -113 | +137 | -159 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -116 | +129 | -166 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +3.5, only $257 available; Over 50.5, only $250 available; Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +323 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +407 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -115 | -135 | +4.0% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -158 | -186 | +3.7% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pmCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt · -104 at Caesars · was +8.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Cincinnati +7.0 at -104 at Caesars. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 55 -116 | -284 | +233 |
All 20 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -106 | 55.5 -109 | -295 | +230 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -106 | 55.5 -109 | -295 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -107 | 55.5 -110 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -117 | 55.5 -107 | -290 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +108 | 55.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -300 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 55.5 -108 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -285 | +224 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 55 -116 | -284 | +233 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -130 | 55.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5, only $422 available; Under 55.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -164 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -263 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -104 | -120 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +233 | +204 | +2.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.7.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsMoved our way · 3 ptsDon't chase · now South Florida -6.5 · -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -110 at Caesars. The number is a point worse, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better. Market says South Florida by 6.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -108 | -250 | +208 |
All 22 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -113 | 48.5 -114 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6 -113 | 48.5 -114 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -113 | 48.5 -115 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -106 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | -255 | +205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -230 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 48 -108 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -265 | +210 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -108 | -250 | +208 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -119 | 48.5 -114 | -275 | +206 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -250 | +210 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $145 available; Over 47.5, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -411 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -393 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -6.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -240 | -249 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelDon't chase · now San Diego State +4 · -110 at Fanatics▼Nasty Pick · called at +4.5 -106Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel on Monday; now San Diego State +4 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is half a point worse and the price is 4 cents worse, from -106 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +4.5, you're set. It's a play again at +4.5 -106 or better. Market says Texas State by 4, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 3.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +4.5 -121 53¢ | 59.5 | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -101 | 59 -108 | +161 | -189 |
All 20 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +4.5 -121 53¢ | 59.5 | +152 38¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -114 | 58.5 -114 | +155 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +4 -108 | 59.5 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -114 | 58.5 -114 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 59 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -114 | 59.5 -109 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -103 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4 -110 | 59 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -106 | +155 | -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | +155 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -111 | 59.5 -108 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +157 | -194 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -101 | 59 -108 | +161 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -120 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · San Diego State.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $257 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (18 books) | +4.0 | +176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +159 | +146 | +2.1% |
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +4.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmBaylor +4.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Baylor +2 · getting 2.5 pts at Caesars · was +4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +4.5: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.6% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Baylor's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 49.5 -105 | -178 | +153 |
All 20 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -205 | +163 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -4 -112 | 49.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -113 | 49 -110 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -205 | +163 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | -205 | +163 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -106 | 49 -110 | -182 | +154 |
| Courtside | -4 -108 | 49.5 -106 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 -114 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -109 | 49 -108 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 49 -110 | -204 | +164 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 49.5 -105 | -178 | +153 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for Baylor, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -182 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -170 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +157 | +115 | +7.7% |
| Spread | Baylor Bears +4.5 | -114 | -155 | +7.6% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.3.
Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at HoustonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUCF +12.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanaticsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.5: all 4 ratings 6.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 51 -112 | -471 | +357 |
All 21 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -112 | 52 -108 | -480 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -460 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -113 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| betPARX | -12 -112 | 52 -108 | -480 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -12 -113 | 52 -109 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -12 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -480 | +350 |
| Caesars | -12 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -106 | 51.5 +100 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -465 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -475 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -109 | 51.5 -103 | -450 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 51 -112 | -471 | +357 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | -549 | +370 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F, 45% chance of rain.
A play at +14.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -11.5, only $17 available; Under 51.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -195 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -284 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -424 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +12.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +350 | +366 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at MassachusettsCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMassachusetts -6.5should be Massachusetts -8 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was -4.5A Little Nasty · MassachusettsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Massachusetts. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 8. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Massachusetts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -239 69¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | -236 | +198 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -239 69¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -6 -115 | 49 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -105 | 48.5 -113 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -106 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | -236 | +198 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 49.5 -111 | -250 | +189 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 +100 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Massachusetts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles +6.5, only $67 available; Over 49.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.0 | -483 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -217 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -6.5 | -105 | -131 | +5.6% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -235 | -283 | +3.7% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-27 22:42.
TOM matches the consensus.
Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pmUnder 51.5should be 50.5 · getting 1 pt · was 57.5▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. The market's total is 51.5; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 51.5 -105 | -143 | +124 |
All 21 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 51.5 -109 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 51.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 51.5 -105 | -143 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 83°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans +2.5, only $452 available; Over 49.5, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -187 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -187 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -115 | -126 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -142 | -153 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 6.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at WisconsinCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30amMichigan State +10should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -112 | 43.5 -106 | -409 | +318 |
All 21 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 43.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetAnything | -10 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -395 | +315 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 43 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 43.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +290 |
| BetUS | -10 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -390 | +312 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -10 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 43 -108 | -390 | +310 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -380 | +286 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -112 | 43.5 -106 | -409 | +318 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -116 | -420 | +295 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 55°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -381 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -204 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -365 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +10.0 | -102 | -109 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +310 | +310 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMiami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -14.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -565 | +395 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -13 -111 | 43 -112 | -585 | +425 |
All 21 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -565 | +395 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 42.5 -115 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -565 | +425 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -565 | +435 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -119 | 43.5 -108 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 42.5 -108 | -565 | +425 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -111 | 43 -112 | -585 | +425 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -676 | +430 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons +13.5, only $374 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1623 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -575 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -723 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -388 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -541 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -565 | -506 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +14should be Iowa +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings▲A Little Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Ohio State by 14, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 -126 54¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 +102 | 46 -103 | +459 | -646 |
All 21 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 -126 54¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -115 | 46 -110 | +460 | -670 |
| BetAnything | +14 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +14.5 -120 | 45.5 -108 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 +100 | 45.5 -115 | +461 | -625 |
| betPARX | +14.5 -115 | 46 -110 | +460 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -115 | 46 -112 | +460 | -670 |
| BetUS | +14 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +465 | -625 |
| Bovada | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -113 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -114 | 45.5 -108 | +471 | -600 |
| DraftKings | +14 -102 | 45.5 -110 | +455 | -625 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 +104 | 45.5 -114 | +461 | -625 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +420 | -599 |
| Pinnacle | +14 +102 | 46 -103 | +459 | -646 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 45.5 -114 | +410 | -625 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +14.0 · -102 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Iowa.
Kalshi thin: Ohio State Buckeyes -14.5, only $423 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +402 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +310 |
| Market (19 books) | +14.0 | +573 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +14.0 | -102 | -106 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +500 | +455 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.8.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at LouisianaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmOver 48should be 48.8 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | — | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -106 | -257 | +214 |
All 20 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | — | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -103 | -275 | +210 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -112 | 48 -105 | -250 | +207 |
| betPARX | -7 -105 | 47.5 -103 | -275 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 47.5 -104 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -113 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -120 | 46.5 -120 | -275 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 48 -103 | -250 | +207 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -270 | +212 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -106 | -257 | +214 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -119 | 47.5 -116 | -275 | +206 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves +6.5, only $108 available; Over 47.5, only $52 available; Under 47.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -308 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -231 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -237 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -250 | -245 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConnCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUConn +6should be UConn +5.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Syracuse by 6, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 5.5. At +101 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UConn's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 +101 | 50 -105 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 +101 | 51 -101 | +205 | -246 |
All 21 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 +101 | 50 -105 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -106 | 50.5 -112 | +210 | -275 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 50 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 +101 | 50 -105 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -106 | 50.5 -112 | +210 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 50.5 -113 | +210 | -275 |
| BetUS | +6 +100 | 50 -105 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | +205 | -239 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +210 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 +105 | 50 -103 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +208 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6 +101 | 51 -101 | +205 | -246 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 50.5 -119 | +204 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.0 · +101 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +230 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | -100 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +193 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +118 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +6.0 | +101 | -103 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +200 | +196 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.7 consensus; moneyline +209 here against +230 consensus.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pmFresno State +2.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Fresno State +1 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was +1A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 46 -103 | -131 | +114 |
All 20 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -107 | -134 | +108 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -107 | -134 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -134 | +108 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -104 | 45.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -129 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 46 -103 | -131 | +114 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | -132 | +103 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +2.5 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -185 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +109 | +106 | +0.7% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.7.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air ForceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 45.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 48.3 · getting 2.6 pts · was 49A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 45.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 12.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 45.5 -116 | -157 | +136 |
All 20 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 45.5 -114 | -165 | +133 |
| BetAnything | -3 -116 | 46 -110 | -158 | +138 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -108 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -116 | 46 -110 | -158 | +138 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 45.5 -114 | -165 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 45.5 -114 | -165 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 45.5 -110 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 45.5 -112 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +102 | 46.5 -112 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -112 | 46 -108 | -158 | +138 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -176 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 45.5 -116 | -157 | +136 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -114 | -180 | +140 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 46.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -158 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen +3.0 | -102 | +102 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | +138 | +143 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -110 | -132 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.1.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 58.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 60.3 · getting 1.8 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 4, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 58.5 | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -111 | 58.5 -108 | +151 | -175 |
All 21 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 58.5 | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 59 -108 | +148 | -180 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +153 | -175 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 59 -108 | +148 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -109 | 59 -109 | +140 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -114 | 58.5 -113 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4 -115 | 58.5 -115 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | +146 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 59 -110 | +158 | -196 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -111 | 58.5 -108 | +151 | -175 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -116 | 58.5 -119 | +155 | -200 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $12 available; Over 58.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +175 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.0 | +166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 64.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -180 | -169 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.9.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 50Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 51.7 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 50 -111 | -602 | +434 |
All 21 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 50 -115 | -630 | +464 |
| betPARX | -14 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -112 | 50.5 -114 | -670 | +440 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -630 | +465 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 50 -115 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -14 -112 | 50.5 -114 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 50.5 -114 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 50 -114 | -630 | +464 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 51 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -102 | 50 -111 | -602 | +434 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 51.5 -111 | -649 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas).
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $0 available; Over 50.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -393 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -618 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -405 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -554 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 55.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +14.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +450 | +472 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLVCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +3should be California +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -0.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 3, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | — | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 53 -107 | -140 | +121 |
All 21 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | — | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 53.5 -109 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 53 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 53.5 -109 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 53.5 -110 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 53 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 53.5 -106 | -136 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -119 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -105 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 53 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -118 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 53 -108 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 53 -107 | -140 | +121 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 53.5 -111 | -144 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +3.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.4 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $49 available; UNLV Rebels ML, only $378 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -110 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +143 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +120 | +123 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.4.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmSouth Alabama -14should be South Alabama -15 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 57 -113 | -597 | +431 |
All 19 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 57 -115 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57 -115 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 57.5 -106 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -104 | 57.5 -114 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 57 -114 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 57 -113 | -597 | +431 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 57.5 -111 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 88% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5, only $24 available; Under 57.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -570 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -798 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -622 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -551 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -14.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -600 | -543 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.6.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmIllinois -10should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 61.5 | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 61.5 -111 | -408 | +317 |
All 20 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 61.5 | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 61.5 -108 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 61.5 -112 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 61.5 -108 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 61.5 -109 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 61.5 -115 | -415 | +310 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 61.5 -110 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 61.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 60.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 61.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 61.5 -108 | -365 | +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 62 -108 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -391 | +290 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 61.5 -111 | -408 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -111 | 61.5 -119 | -400 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5, only $15 available; Over 61.5, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -657 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -423 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -366 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 66.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -10.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -385 | -378 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 61.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.1.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amIowa State -3.5should be Iowa State -3.5 at Kalshi · was +0.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 53 -110 | -159 | +137 |
All 21 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -109 | -167 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 53.5 -108 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 53 -105 | -163 | +143 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -109 | -167 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -106 | 52.5 -109 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 53 -105 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 53 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -115 | 52.5 -114 | -162 | +136 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 53 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 52.5 -118 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +101 | 53 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -175 | +142 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 53 -110 | -159 | +137 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -116 | -169 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 52.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Iowa State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State -3.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -407 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones -3.5 | +105 | -101 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | -154 | -163 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmColorado State +6should be Colorado State +6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 60.5 -131 55¢ | +189 33¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -101 | 62 -103 | +201 | -241 |
All 20 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 60.5 -131 55¢ | +189 33¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -108 | 61.5 -112 | +190 | -245 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 61.5 -112 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -105 | 62 -110 | +203 | -245 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -108 | 61.5 -112 | +190 | -245 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -109 | 61.5 -113 | +190 | -245 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -115 | 62.5 -103 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6 -105 | 62.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 61.5 -115 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -104 | 62.5 -105 | +205 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -104 | 62 -108 | +203 | -245 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 62 -110 | +174 | -221 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -101 | 62 -103 | +201 | -241 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 61.5 -116 | +189 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -120 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Colorado State Rams +6.5, only $230 available; Under 60.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +209 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +222 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +6.5 | -104 | -105 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +199 | +202 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.4.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:31pmTexas Tech -12.5should be Texas Tech -13.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 13.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -101 | 50 -114 | +399 | -541 |
All 21 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13 -109 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| BetMGM | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13 -113 | 50.5 -110 | +383 | -500 |
| betPARX | +13 -109 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13 -110 | 50.5 -112 | +400 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -500 |
| Bovada | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -550 |
| Caesars | +13 -109 | 50.5 -107 | +380 | -500 |
| Courtside | +12.5 -106 | 50.5 -108 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +370 | -485 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | +400 | -550 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +383 | -500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +410 | -599 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -101 | 50 -114 | +399 | -541 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -114 | 50.5 -114 | +400 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +16.0, now +12.5. The market has moved 3.3 away from Texas Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1116 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +368 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +430 |
| Market (19 books) | +12.5 | +484 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 | +101 | -100 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -485 | -444 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -6should be Alabama -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 60.5 | — | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -107 | 59.5 -116 | +191 | -228 |
All 20 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 60.5 | — | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -110 | 60 -113 | +190 | -240 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 60 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 60.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -111 | 60.5 -105 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -110 | 60 -113 | +190 | -240 |
| BetRivers | +6 -112 | 60.5 -109 | +188 | -245 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 60.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 60 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | +6 -110 | 60.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 60.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 60 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 60.5 -110 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -107 | 60.5 -103 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +184 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -107 | 59.5 -116 | +191 | -228 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 60.5 -114 | +180 | -236 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 60.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $287 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +293 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +163 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +325 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -6.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -225 | -208 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUnder 55.5should be 54.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -104 | -1452 | +836 |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -112 | 55.5 -105 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55 -115 | -1600 | +800 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 55.5 +100 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 55.5 -102 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -105 | 55 -108 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1587 | +800 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -104 | -1452 | +836 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 55.5 -109 | -1695 | +750 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $33 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $342 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -878 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -581 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -822 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -563 |
| Market (18 books) | -21.0 | -1319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +21.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +900 | +889 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at KansasCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amKansas -18.5should be Kansas -18.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 50 -104 | -1201 | +731 |
All 20 books
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 49 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -1252 | +842 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -1350 | +800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 | -1200 | +720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 49 -108 | -1300 | +795 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 50 -110 | -1205 | +700 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 50 -104 | -1201 | +731 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 50.5 -116 | -1299 | +660 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +18.5, only $358 available; Over 49.5, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -836 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -567 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1761 |
| Massey | -21.5 | -1146 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks -18.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | -1087 | -806 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -6should be Michigan -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | — | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -115 | 43 -112 | +182 | -215 |
All 21 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | — | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +181 | -212 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 43 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +176 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 43 -108 | +181 | -212 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +193 | -244 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -115 | 43 -112 | +182 | -215 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | +189 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 +100 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $40 available; Under 43.5, only $476 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +195 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +274 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.0 | +201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -5.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -215 | -201 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -21.5should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -102 | +890 | -1590 |
All 20 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Bally Bet | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +1200 | — |
| BetAnything | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +21 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +1100 | -2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21 -108 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +1200 | — |
| BetRivers | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | — |
| BetUS | +21 -105 | 47 -115 | +1000 | -1800 |
| Bovada | +21 -110 | 47 -110 | +850 | -1800 |
| Courtside | +21 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +1008 | -1509 |
| DraftKings | +21 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +950 | -1650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +21.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +21 -104 | 47 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +900 | -1887 |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -102 | +890 | -1590 |
| ReBet | +21.5 -116 | 47.5 -111 | +830 | -2000 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 +100 | 47.5 -110 | +1100 | -2500 |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F, 29% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1319 |
| FPI | +20.5 | +921 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +609 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1202 |
| Market (18 books) | +21.5 | +1552 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +21.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +1100 | +1106 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.1.
The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake ForestCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amWake Forest -13should be Wake Forest -13 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -530 | +393 |
All 20 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -13 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -111 | 53.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -549 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -530 | +393 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -575 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest).
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +13.5, only $492 available; Under 53.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -509 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -440 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -369 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | -530 | -434 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45amGeorgia -24should be Georgia -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 24.5 to Georgia by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -24 -102 | 50.5 -115 | -2557 | +1223 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -24.5 -108 | 51 -110 | — | +1600 |
| BetAnything | -24.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| BetMGM | -24 -110 | 50.5 -118 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -110 | 51 -110 | -3000 | +1256 |
| betPARX | -24.5 -108 | 51 -110 | — | +1600 |
| BetRivers | -24.5 -109 | 51 -112 | — | +1500 |
| BetUS | -24.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -3000 | +1300 |
| Bovada | -24 -105 | 51 -110 | -2800 | +1100 |
| Courtside | -24.5 -106 | 50.5 -113 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -108 | 50.5 -115 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -24.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 6¢ +1150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -24 -110 | 51 -110 | -2800 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -104 | 51.5 -102 | — | +1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -24.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -106 | 51 -108 | -3000 | +1256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -24.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | +1192 |
| Pinnacle | -24 -102 | 50.5 -115 | -2557 | +1223 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -114 | 50.5 -119 | -3030 | +960 |
| theScore Bet | -24.5 +100 | 50.5 -120 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 35% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Georgia).
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -1772 |
| FPI | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -823 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -844 |
| Market (18 books) | -24.0 | -2427 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs -24.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | -3000 | -1630 | priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.8.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at BuffaloCFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 47 -106 | +433 | -599 |
All 20 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +456 17¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -115 | 46.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +435 | -575 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +431 | -575 |
| betPARX | +14 -115 | 46.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14 -117 | 46.5 -118 | +510 | -835 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +440 | -575 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +425 | -600 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | +450 | -630 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -106 | 46 -108 | +431 | -575 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +460 | -676 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 47 -106 | +433 | -599 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 46.5 -116 | +450 | -725 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls +13.5, only $467 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +284 |
| FPI | +13.5 | +452 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +441 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +387 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +555 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +13.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +450 | +435 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pmToledo -19.5should be Toledo -20 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19 to Toledo by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -101 | 52 -112 | +752 | -1251 |
All 22 books
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +19.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +750 | -1300 |
| BetMGM | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 -102 | +825 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | +795 | -1300 |
| betPARX | +19.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +780 | -1300 |
| Bovada | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +725 | -1300 |
| Caesars | +19.5 -109 | 52 -113 | +800 | -1450 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 +100 | +842 | -1252 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -112 | 52.5 -102 | +800 | -1350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +19.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +800 | -1300 |
| FanDuel | +19.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +800 | -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +19.5 -106 | 52 -114 | +795 | -1300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +775 | -1442 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -101 | 52 -112 | +752 | -1251 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -116 | 52.5 -109 | +670 | -1299 |
| theScore Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets -17.5, only $278 available; Under 52.5, only $51 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1344 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1212 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +596 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +827 |
| Market (19 books) | +19.5 | +1145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -19.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1300 | -909 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.
TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
The line is +19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central MichiganCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCentral Michigan -6.5should be Central Michigan -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Central Michigan by 6 to Central Michigan by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 47 -109 | -249 | +207 |
All 20 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -113 | 47 -110 | -250 | +207 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -121 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -245 | +198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 47 -108 | -250 | +207 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 47 -109 | -249 | +207 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 47.5 -109 | -270 | +204 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5, only $27 available; Under 47.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -219 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -225 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -229 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas ML | -247 | -214 | -3.0% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -7should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 +101 48¢ | -290 73¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -109 | 54.5 +100 | -284 | +233 |
All 20 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 +101 48¢ | -290 73¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -278 | +210 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -113 | 54 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -278 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -7 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -278 | +210 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -109 | 54 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -109 | 54.5 +100 | -284 | +233 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | -290 | +216 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Auburn).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, only $34 available; Under 54.5, only $4 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -302 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -289 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -260 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -7.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -280 | -263 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at CharlotteCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 53should be 54 · getting 1.1 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Pinnacle | +20 -102 | 53 -109 | +785 | -1328 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Bally Bet | +20.5 -112 | 52.5 -113 | +950 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +865 | -1500 |
| BetMGM | +20 -108 | 53.5 -108 | +900 | -1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +20 -105 | 53 -110 | +836 | -1400 |
| betPARX | +20.5 -112 | 52.5 -113 | +950 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +20.5 -112 | 52.5 -114 | +950 | -2500 |
| BetUS | +20 -105 | 53 -110 | +825 | -1400 |
| Bovada | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +750 | -1400 |
| Courtside | +20.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | +897 | -1339 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +850 | -1450 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +20.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +850 | -1400 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | +890 | -1700 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +1000 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +20 -101 | 53 -108 | +836 | -1400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +740 | -1299 |
| Pinnacle | +20 -102 | 53 -109 | +785 | -1328 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -109 | 52.5 -116 | +690 | -1408 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +900 | -1800 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $49 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +27.5 | +2279 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +592 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +566 |
| Massey | +18.5 | +781 |
| Market (18 books) | +20.0 | +1222 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +20.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +865 | +863 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMissouri +5.5should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 57.5 -112 51¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -105 | 56.5 -114 | +187 | -222 |
All 21 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 57.5 -112 51¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -109 | 57 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -109 | 57 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 57 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5 -109 | 57 -110 | +172 | -205 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -115 | 56.5 -112 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +168 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 57.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +174 | -218 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -105 | 56.5 -114 | +187 | -222 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 56.5 -119 | +170 | -222 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $35 available; Under 57.5, only $42 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +124 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +144 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +152 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +200 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +181 | +182 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmVirginia -2.5should be Virginia -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +117 | -142 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 51.5 -109 | +122 | -141 |
All 21 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +117 | -142 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | +120 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +122 | -142 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -106 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 51.5 -106 | +115 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 51.5 -103 | +122 | -142 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +116 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 51.5 -109 | +122 | -141 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | +114 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +213 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -136 | -125 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia State -1.5should be Georgia State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | — | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -115 | 51 -110 | -121 | +105 |
All 20 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | — | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | -122 | +100 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -130 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -107 | -131 | +111 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | -122 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 51.5 -110 | -122 | +100 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 51 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -106 | 51.5 -112 | -128 | +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 51.5 -105 | -131 | +111 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -126 | +103 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -115 | 51 -110 | -121 | +105 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -116 | 51.5 -111 | -129 | +101 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 +100 | 51.5 +100 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Georgia State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia State).
Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs +2.5, only $12 available; Over 51.5, only $12 available; Under 51.5, only $491 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -235 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +127 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers -1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | -125 | -112 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 46should be 44.3 · getting 1.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -19 -101 | 46 -104 | -1182 | +722 |
All 20 books
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -18 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +754 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 45.5 -113 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -112 | 45.5 -114 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -18 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -18 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -1252 | +842 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -1350 | +800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -1250 | +740 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1600 | +850 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 45.5 -108 | -1200 | +754 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1299 | +740 |
| Pinnacle | -19 -101 | 46 -104 | -1182 | +722 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 45.5 -114 | -1408 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the North Dakota State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Wyoming).
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +18.5, only $12 available; Under 45.5, only $12 available; Wyoming Cowboys ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.5 | -1294 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -738 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -722 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -471 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1072 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys +18.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | +754 | +788 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Samford Bulldogs at UAB BlazersSamford at UABCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmSamford +30.5should be Samford +27.5 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UAB by 30.5.
The spread
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Samford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Samford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Fanatics | -31 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| ReBet | -30.5 -119 | — | — | — |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $3 available; Under 51.5, only $52 available; Samford Bulldogs ML, only $187 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Samford | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Samford | |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -590 |
| Massey | rates Samford and UAB on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -30.5 | -4878 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Samford Bulldogs +31.0 | -115 | -147 | +6.0% |
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs ML | +2095 | +2402 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pmJames Madison -18.5should be James Madison -19.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 -131 55¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -1045 | +660 |
All 21 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 -131 55¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -108 | 56.5 -105 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -112 | 56.5 -105 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -113 | 56.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 56 -105 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -18.5 -107 | 55.5 -118 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -103 | 55.5 -110 | -987 | +706 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -1050 | +675 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -1300 | +760 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -108 | 56.5 -103 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -1045 | +660 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 55.5 -116 | -1099 | +600 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd +17.5, only $248 available; Under 56.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1708 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -737 |
| Market (19 books) | -18.5 | -981 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -18.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -967 | -863 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNebraska -14.5should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -688 | +482 |
All 21 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -113 | 52 -113 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -113 | 52 -113 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -15 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -103 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -112 | 52.5 -105 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -109 | 52 -112 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -752 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -688 | +482 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -114 | 52.5 -109 | -800 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.6 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -549 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -553 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -424 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -615 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -688 | -536 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New MexicoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNew Mexico -22.5should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -121 53¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -111 | 48.5 -112 | -1942 | +1020 |
All 20 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -121 53¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -112 | 48.5 -113 | — | +1300 |
| BetAnything | -22.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -2250 | +1050 |
| BetMGM | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | -2000 | +1150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 49 -105 | -2250 | +1106 |
| betPARX | -23.5 -112 | 48.5 -113 | — | +1300 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -113 | 48.5 -114 | — | +1300 |
| BetUS | -22.5 -115 | 49 -105 | -2250 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -23 -105 | 49 -105 | -2000 | +950 |
| Courtside | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -113 | -1882 | +1177 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 48.5 -115 | -2100 | +1100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -22.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -2800 | +1160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -23.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | +1300 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -111 | 49 -103 | -2250 | +1106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -23 -110 | 49 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -111 | 48.5 -112 | -1942 | +1020 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -114 | 48.5 -119 | -2273 | +870 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.5 | -2271 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1842 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -866 |
| Market (18 books) | -22.5 | -1813 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -22.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -1684 | -1556 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmSouth Carolina -2.5should be South Carolina -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3 to South Carolina by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 53 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 53.5 -106 | -148 | +129 |
All 22 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 53 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -150 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -125 | 53.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 53 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -150 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 53.5 -110 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 53.5 -112 | -148 | +126 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 53.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 53.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -112 | -144 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 53 -108 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 53.5 -106 | -148 | +129 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 53.5 -114 | -153 | +120 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Kentucky). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5 | -117 | -107 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | -144 | -129 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus; total 53.0 here against 53.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic OwlsTexas Southern at Florida AtlanticCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmTexas Southern +44.5should be Texas Southern +41 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida Atlantic by 44.5.
The spread
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Fanatics | -44.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 84°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $52 available; Under 61.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -32.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +44.5 | -110 | -147 | +7.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | — | — | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmBYU -6.5should be BYU -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | — | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 48 -105 | +206 | -247 |
All 20 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | — | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -113 | 47.5 -107 | +215 | -275 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -107 | 47.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -113 | 47.5 -107 | +215 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | +200 | -275 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +205 | -245 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -117 | +200 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -103 | 47.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 48 -105 | +206 | -247 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 47.5 -119 | +204 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 47% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $228 available; Over 47.5, only $63 available; TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +201 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +231 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +206 | +210 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 4.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmGeorgia Southern -2.5should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 54 -108 | +115 | -132 |
All 20 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -114 | 53.5 -112 | +100 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2 -114 | 53.5 -112 | +100 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 53.5 -113 | +100 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 54 -108 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 54 -108 | +115 | -132 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 53.5 -119 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 41% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +110 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +110 | +116 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmUTSA -11.5should be UTSA -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 11.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 10 to UTSA by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -105 | 56 -109 | +362 | -480 |
All 20 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Bally Bet | +12.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +344 | -440 |
| betPARX | +12.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +12 -110 | 55.5 -112 | +380 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +345 | -440 |
| Bovada | +12 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -113 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 55.5 -115 | +350 | -455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -108 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 56 -108 | +344 | -440 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -105 | 56 -109 | +362 | -480 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 55.5 -116 | +340 | -500 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 80% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +11.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward UTSA).
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +11.5, only $463 available; Under 56.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +404 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +382 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +452 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.5 | +437 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -475 | -400 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.4.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmArmy -2.5should be Army -2.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Army by 3.5 to Army by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +109 46¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -112 | +114 | -131 |
All 20 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +109 46¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +2 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +107 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -107 | 47.5 -113 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +107 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 47.5 -107 | +107 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | +105 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +105 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -103 | 47.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -112 | +114 | -131 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 47.5 -114 | +106 | -135 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights -2.5, only $0 available; Army Black Knights ML, only $65 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +177 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -130 | -126 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 0.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmBoise State -20.5should be Boise State -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -111 | -1375 | +804 |
All 21 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1500 | +874 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1500 | +850 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -1500 | +775 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -109 | 51.5 -107 | -1450 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -106 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -1700 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -2500 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -1500 | +874 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 51 -110 | -1493 | +790 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -111 | -1375 | +804 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 51.5 -109 | -1587 | +740 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Kalshi thin: Boise State Broncos -20.5, only $12 available; Over 51.5, only $12 available; Under 51.5, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -829 |
| FPI | -20.5 | -914 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -865 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -454 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1273 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +20.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +887 | +909 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmMiami -16.5should be Miami -16.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 -107 50¢ | — | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -106 | 48.5 +101 | +572 | -860 |
All 19 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 -107 50¢ | — | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17 -114 | 47.5 -108 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetAnything | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +550 | -800 |
| BetMGM | +16.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +575 | -750 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +574 | -825 |
| betPARX | +17 -114 | 47.5 -108 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17 -115 | 47.5 -109 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +565 | -825 |
| Bovada | +16.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +575 | -900 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +572 | -761 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +550 | -800 |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +575 | -850 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -104 | 47.5 -112 | +580 | -880 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +600 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -101 | 47.5 -114 | +574 | -825 |
| MyBookie.ag | +16.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +547 | -839 |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -106 | 48.5 +101 | +572 | -860 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 47.5 -116 | +550 | -952 |
| theScore Bet | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +550 | -900 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 76°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Miami Hurricanes -16.5, only $49 available; Over 46.5, only $117 available; Under 46.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +797 |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +284 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +315 |
| Market (18 books) | +16.5 | +760 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +16.5 | -104 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +574 | +594 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmUSC -9should be USC -9 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 10 to USC by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 57.5 -126 54¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -114 | 57.5 -116 | -380 | +298 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 57.5 -126 54¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -109 | 58.5 -108 | -435 | +325 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -116 | 59 -115 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -10 -109 | 58.5 -108 | -435 | +325 |
| BetRivers | -10 -110 | 58.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 58.5 -107 | -360 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -106 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 58.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -112 | 59 -114 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -114 | 57.5 -116 | -380 | +298 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 58.5 -114 | -380 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 +100 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans -9.5, only $198 available; Under 57.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -286 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -352 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Huskies +9.5 | -103 | -101 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Washington Huskies ML | +299 | +309 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmIndiana -24should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24 +101 | 56 -111 | +1168 | -2381 |
All 21 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Bally Bet | +24 -112 | 55.5 -112 | +1300 | — |
| BetAnything | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +24 -108 | 55.5 -115 | +1400 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -105 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | +24 -112 | 55.5 -112 | +1300 | — |
| BetRivers | +24 -113 | 55.5 -113 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -105 | 55.5 -110 | +1150 | -2400 |
| Bovada | +24.5 -115 | 56 -115 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +24 -107 | 55.5 -117 | +1200 | — |
| Courtside | +24.5 -113 | 56.5 -103 | +1290 | -2122 |
| DraftKings | +24.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | +1200 | -2400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +24.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 7¢ +1011 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +24.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +24.5 -118 | 55.5 -114 | +1400 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +23.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -101 | 55.5 -106 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | +970 | -2273 |
| Pinnacle | +24 +101 | 56 -111 | +1168 | -2381 |
| ReBet | +24.5 -111 | 55.5 -116 | +900 | -2273 |
| theScore Bet | +24.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | +1200 | -3000 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Indiana).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2008 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +594 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1205 |
| Market (19 books) | +24.0 | +2146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -24.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2449 | -1711 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
McNeese State Cowboys at LSU TigersMcNeese at LSUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:45pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Fanatics | -48.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -48.5 -110 | 61.5 -106 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 92% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $306 available; Under 61.5, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| FPI | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Massey | rates McNeese and LSU on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -48.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Oct 4
14 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Cardinals at Giants, Giants +1.5.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralCommanders +3.5should be Commanders +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars · was +4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Commanders +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Commanders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 47 -113 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -104 | 47 -114 | +166 | -194 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 47 -113 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | — | 47 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 47 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -108 | 47 -113 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 47 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 47 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -105 | 47 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 47.5 +100 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -102 | +164 | -196 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 47 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +154 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -104 | 47 -114 | +166 | -194 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | — | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -125 | +161 | -192 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 +100 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Commanders +3.5 · -105 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $76 available; Under 47.5, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 2 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +108 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +3.5 | -105 | -117 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +160 | +150 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -113 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +1.5should be Giants +0.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2.5▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Giants +1.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.4% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 +103 | 44.5 -102 | +108 | -123 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -110 | 44 -114 | +100 | -124 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 44 -120 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -110 | 44 -114 | +100 | -124 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 44 -114 | +100 | -124 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 44 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -107 | 44.5 -105 | +107 | -125 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -121 | 44.5 -106 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +105 | 44.5 -107 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +101 | -129 |
| Pinnacle | +1 +103 | 44.5 -102 | +108 | -123 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 44.5 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +106 | -124 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +1.5 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.5. The market has moved 3.7 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals -1.5, only $342 available; Over 44.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -178 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -251 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +1.5 | +100 | -110 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +110 | +100 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers to winour data says 60 in 100 · -145▲A Little Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3. At -145 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -106 | -142 | +123 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 47.5 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 47.5 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -3 -105 | 47.5 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 +102 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -112 | -154 | +130 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -107 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -155 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -106 | -142 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -120 | -149 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -145 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 80°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · 49ers.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $12 available; Over 48.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -185 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -350 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -183 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -210 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -145 | -151 | +0.9% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | -118 | -120 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmUnder 48should be 46.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 45.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 4.5 to Chiefs by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -107 | +165 | -205 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -111 | 48 -101 | +179 | -211 |
All 26 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -107 | +165 | -205 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -108 | 48 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetMGM | — | 47.5 -108 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 48 -107 | +177 | -205 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -108 | 48 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -108 | 48 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetUS | +4 -105 | 48 -110 | +175 | -205 |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -114 | +177 | -213 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +184 | -220 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 +100 | 48 -104 | +177 | -205 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +174 | -228 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -111 | 48 -101 | +179 | -211 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -108 | — | +178 | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +182 | -218 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -113 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5, only $455 available; Kansas City Chiefs ML, only $296 available; Over 48.5, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +172 here against +198 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +203 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +181 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | -103 | +101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -205 | -192 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -113 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus; moneyline +172 here against +198 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +2.5should be Cowboys +2 · getting 0.5 pts at KalshiNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -116 | -151 | +131 |
All 26 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -103 | 47.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -147 | +127 |
| betPARX | -3 -103 | 47.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -103 | 47.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -141 | +120 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -103 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48 -107 | -147 | +127 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -116 | -151 | +131 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 48.5 +104 | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -120 | -144 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +2.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans -2.5, only $48 available; Houston Texans ML, only $103 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys), Jake Hummel (LB, Texans) and 1 more.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -116 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +2.5 | +105 | -104 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +122 | +120 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pmPanthers +3.5should be Panthers +3.5 at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Panthers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -106 | 50.5 -107 | +160 | -187 |
All 26 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -110 | 50 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +4 -110 | 50 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4 -110 | 50 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +168 | -200 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -107 | 50 -113 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +154 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -106 | 50.5 -107 | +160 | -187 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 50.5 -108 | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 50.5 -110 | +161 | -192 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F, 49% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 3 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +149 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +168 | +162 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.5 | -105 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJaguars +2.5should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | — | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 51 -112 | -143 | +124 |
All 26 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | — | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 51 -112 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | -134 | +110 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | -141 | +119 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -140 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 51.5 -107 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -146 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 51 -112 | -143 | +124 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 +100 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals ML, only $46 available; Under 51.5, only $438 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Colbie Young (WR, Bengals), Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 5 more.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +107 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +120 | +118 | +0.5% |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJets +3should be Jets +3 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -121 | 43 -107 | -177 | +155 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 43 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -117 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 +100 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -102 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -118 | -176 | +148 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 42.5 -120 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 43 -107 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -185 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -121 | 43 -107 | -177 | +155 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 43.5 +100 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 42.5 -120 | -177 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -115 | 43.5 +100 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.0 · +100 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Shemar Turner (DT, Bears).
New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -200 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -188 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -397 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -347 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets +3.0 | +100 | -103 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | +147 | +144 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -11.5should be Ravens -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -647 | +460 |
All 26 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -107 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +476 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +480 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -720 | +520 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -820 | +495 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -102 | 43.5 -107 | -650 | +476 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -647 | +460 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -113 | 43.5 -104 | -614 | +567 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +11.5, only $40 available; Under 43.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens), Jackson Slater (G, Titans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -450 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -441 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -433 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -434 |
| Market (22 books) | -11.5 | -603 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +500 | +443 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -6.5should be Bills -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 +101 | 48.5 -110 | -309 | +251 |
All 26 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -108 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -295 | +241 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -108 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -108 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -295 | +245 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +104 | 49 -107 | -295 | +241 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +101 | 48.5 -110 | -309 | +251 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -295 | +242 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Bills).
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $69 available; New England Patriots ML, only $295 available; Over 48.5, only $124 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Josh Allen (Bills), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Greg Van Roten (G, Patriots), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -245 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -254 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -210 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -228 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6.5 | -115 | -104 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -295 | -269 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at BuccaneersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmPackers -4should be Packers -3.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 4, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 40.5 +105 47¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 39.5 -109 | +165 | -193 |
All 26 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 40.5 +105 47¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -109 | 39.5 -113 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -111 | 39.5 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +4 -109 | 39.5 -113 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4 -109 | 39.5 -113 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4 -113 | 39.5 -115 | +160 | -193 |
| Courtside | +3.5 +100 | 39.5 -116 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 39.5 -118 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 39.5 -110 | +164 | -196 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +160 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 39.5 -104 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +159 | -206 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 39.5 -109 | +165 | -193 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 39.5 | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +166 | -198 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 39.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Packers).
Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $13 available; Green Bay Packers -3.5, only $44 available; Over 39.5, only $418 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers) and 1 more.
Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +160 | +177 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -107 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Green Bay Packers since 09-27 21:32; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRams -3should be Rams -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 43 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 43.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 43.5 +101 | +139 | -161 |
All 26 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 43 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 43.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 43.5 -114 | +135 | -165 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 43 -105 | +142 | -162 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 43 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 43 -105 | +142 | -162 |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 43.5 -114 | +135 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 43.5 -114 | +135 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 43 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 43 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 43 -113 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -110 | 42.5 -122 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | 43.5 +100 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 43 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +3 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +134 | -158 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 43.5 -105 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 43 -102 | +142 | -162 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +129 | -166 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 43.5 +101 | +139 | -161 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 43.5 | +150 | -156 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 43.5 -120 | +135 | -159 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -110 | 43.5 +100 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F, 30% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Rams). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $7 available; Philadelphia Eagles +3.5, only $128 available; Over 43.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Tanner McKee (Eagles), Out; Cole Payton (Eagles), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams), Jaylen Watson (CB, Rams).
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +151 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +110 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +132 | +138 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.4 consensus; moneyline +138 here against +151 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -11should be Vikings -11 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 11, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -107 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 +100 | 38.5 -113 | -568 | +415 |
All 26 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -107 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -113 | 39.5 -108 | -670 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -610 | +460 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -105 | 38.5 -107 | -610 | +452 |
| betPARX | -11 -113 | 39.5 -108 | -670 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -11 -113 | 39.5 -108 | -670 | +475 |
| BetUS | -11 -105 | 38.5 -110 | -610 | +455 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -110 | 39 -105 | -585 | +410 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -106 | 38.5 -108 | -623 | +487 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +470 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -115 | 39 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -115 | 38.5 -114 | -620 | +460 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 | -700 | +435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 +103 | 38.5 -104 | -610 | +452 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -725 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -11 +100 | 38.5 -113 | -568 | +415 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +100 | — | — | +488 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 | -676 | +490 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 38.5, only $17 available; Under 38.5, only $205 available; Minnesota Vikings ML, only $216 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Josh Oliver (TE, Vikings), Nick Samac (C, Vikings) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.5 | -469 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -436 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -460 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -424 |
| Market (22 books) | -11.0 | -539 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 38.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -11.0 | -107 | -101 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -564 | -437 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmSeahawks -7should be Seahawks -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 43 -102 | -342 | +273 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetAnything | -7 -120 | 43 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 43 -105 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -116 | 42.5 -112 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| Bovada | -7 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 42.5 -118 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 42.5 -116 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -118 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 +100 | 42.5 -120 | -380 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -112 | 42.5 -109 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -370 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 43 -102 | -342 | +273 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +113 | 42.5 -108 | -300 | +285 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -350 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 42.5 -120 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Seahawks). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks).
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -280 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -319 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -252 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -404 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -345 | -304 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-26 16:16.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 5
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at SaintsAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pmUnder 48.5should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. Massey and FPI say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 +109 | 48.5 +100 | -143 | +127 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -148 | +128 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -118 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 48.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -102 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -107 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -154 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +109 | 48.5 +100 | -143 | +127 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | — | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -148 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints -2.5, only $13 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $4 available; New Orleans Saints -2.5, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -192 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -158 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -2.5 | -115 | -114 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -148 | -143 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -108 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 4-6 | 40.0% | -2.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 4-4 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 21-29 | 42.0% | -10.4 u | |
| Not Nasty | 193 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-30 09:06.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.97 | 113 |
| FPI | 10.57 | 169 |
| The market | 10.65 | 230 |
| SP+ | 10.66 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 220 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 115 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 113 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 139 |
The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.
The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 31 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 10.46 | 48 |
| Massey | 10.69 | 31 |
| nfelo | 10.86 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 10.88 | 48 |
| FPI | 11.26 | 33 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 31 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 31 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 31 |
The line archive, 48 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 43 games. The close misses the final by 10.46, the open by 10.60, our raw ratings number by 10.93, Pinnacle's close by 10.45. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.00, Polymarket 9.54, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.13.
The head start. 112 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 26, average 0.40 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 57.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| ratings 0% | 311 | 10.63 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 311 | 10.56 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 311 | 10.42 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 311 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 1-1 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Sagarin no vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 112 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 112 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 57. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Houston | UCF +10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 | same side |
| UL Monroe at South Alabama | Over | 54.5 | 55.9 | +1.4 | no call |
| Washington at USC | Over | 53.5 | 56.4 | +2.9 | no call |
| West Virginia at Iowa State | Iowa State +2 | 2 | -2.7 | +4.7 | same side |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Dallas +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay +3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | no call |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Under | 48 | 48 | +0.0 | same side |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Under | 43.5 | 42.5 | +1.0 | no call |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | New York +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Under | 48.5 | 48.5 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 120 | 13.4 | 34-46 (42%) | 22-25 (47%) |
| Massey | 123 | 12.6 | 27-34 (44%) | 8-20 (29%) |
| The blend | 125 | 12.8 | 26-36 (42%) | 10-19 (34%) |
NFL, 38 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 34 | 11.0 | 9-12 (43%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| FPI | 32 | 10.5 | 9-2 (82%) | 6-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 34 | 10.1 | 8-4 (67%) | 3-1 (75%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 75 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.
What's changed since Tue 29 Sep, 6:06pm
- NewPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies is now a pick: Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5 at -114.
- MovedBaylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils price moved from -110 to -114.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 170 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 144 | 10.12 |
| The market | 278 | 10.61 |
| SP+ | 169 | 10.66 |
| FPI | 202 | 10.68 |
| nfelo | 48 | 10.86 |
| Sagarin | 268 | 11.89 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 124-126 | 50% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 3-8 | 27% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 5-6 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 857958 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.16 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 368 | 1.45 |
| Kalshi | 178 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | 396 | 1.43 |
| BetRivers | 388 | 1.32 |
| BetOnline.ag | 357 | 1.32 |
| LowVig.ag | 349 | 1.31 |
| ReBet | 173 | 1.23 |
| MyBookie.ag | 288 | 1.23 |
| Bally Bet | 180 | 1.20 |
| betPARX | 180 | 1.19 |
| BetMGM | 354 | 1.13 |
| BetUS | 289 | 1.11 |
| Caesars | 307 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 306 | 1.08 |
| Fanatics | 323 | 1.05 |
| Bovada | 356 | 1.05 |
| theScore Bet | 177 | 1.00 |
| Pinnacle | 357 | 0.97 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 180 | 0.95 |
| Courtside | 140 | 0.89 |
| BetAnything | 163 | 0.81 |
| Fliff | 128 | 0.76 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 47 | 0.60 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 47 | 0.55 |
| Polymarket | 39 | 0.49 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today