Nasty

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picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Mon 6:07 pm · 4 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOhio -3-110 at TOM+5.1%Sat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 9:14am at -3 -110. Now Ohio -3 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1.5 pts-4.5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -5Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3+100 at BetMGM+3.9%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +3.5 -107. Now Pittsburgh +3 +100, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+3.5 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +2.5Temple at South FloridaSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Cincinnati at Arizona▲Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck

Buck's Take

Four Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Ohio -3, Pittsburgh +3, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings and South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.

UCF at Houston, UCF +12.5. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.

Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +4. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 4. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is 49ers -2.5 (Broncos at 49ers) at 7.8% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5, down 2 since the open.

Since the last build, Cincinnati at Arizona climbed to Damn Near Nasty.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Ohio at Kent State, Ohio -3. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

4 more later this week
Eastern Michigan at MassachusettsMassachusetts -5.5should be Massachusetts -7 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsNeeds a better numberSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -5.5 at -105 (5.3%) · Fanatics -5 at -110 (5.2%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (4.6%) · TOM -5.5 at -110 (4.2%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -112 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -5.5 (the games that land on 5); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.
Baylor at Arizona StateBaylor +4should be Baylor +2 · getting 2 pts at FanaticsNeeds a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Baylor): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (6.8%) · Caesars +4 at -114 (6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (3.2%).
Texas State at San Diego StateSan Diego State +4-102 at BetMGM · 3.4% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this SauceNeeds a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4.5 for -102 at BetMGM, or +5.5 for -110 at FanDuel · half a point awayWhere, best first (San Diego State): BetMGM +4 at -102 (3.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (2.7%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (1.8%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (1.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (1.5%).Points or price: +4.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4 (the games that land on 4); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.
UCF at HoustonMoved our way · 1 ptUCF +12.5should be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelNeeds a better numberSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -110 at FanDuel · 1.5 points awayWhere, best first (UCF): FanDuel or Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (0.5%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (0.0%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 50¢ (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5. The total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

14 more later this week
Louisville at NC StateMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 58.5should be 60.7 · getting 2.1 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (3.1%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -112 (2.7%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (2.0%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 58.5 at -117 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Navy at Air ForceMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 46should be 48.3 · getting 2.5 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (2.7%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 46 (the games that land on 46); 53¢ costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Fresno State at Washington StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsFresno State to winour data says 50 in 100 · +110Sat 8:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · FanDuel +104 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.0%).
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)Moved our way · 1.5 ptsMiami (OH) -13should be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Miami (OH)): DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.
Army at Louisiana TechMoved our way · 1 ptOver 46should be 47.6 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
California at UNLVMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 54should be 52.7 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.0%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 53.5 (the games that land on 54); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
UL Monroe at South AlabamaOver 56should be 57.6 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (1.5%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
UTSA at RiceOver 54.5should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.0%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -115 (0.5%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins by a hair.
Michigan State at WisconsinMichigan State +10should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMSat 11:30am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Michigan State): BetMGM +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Caesars +10.5 at -112 (1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -122 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.1%).Points or price: +10.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10 (the games that land on 10); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.
Arkansas State at LouisianaOver 47should be 48.4 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 46.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 47 (the games that land on 47); -118 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Syracuse at UConnUConn +6.5should be UConn +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (UConn): FanDuel +6.5 at -105 (0.8%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (0.1%) · TOM +6 at -105 (-0.4%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Kalshi +6.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.9%).
Texas Tech at Colorado▲Texas Tech -13.5should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Texas Tech): Fanatics -13.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM -13 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -13.5 at -107 (0.3%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.
Liberty at DelawareOver 49.5should be 50.7 · getting 1.2 ptsFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -108 (1.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars 49.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
Arkansas at Texas A&MOver 51.5should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 52¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.0%).
Sniff of Nasty · Sunday's preview, 8 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: 49ers -2.5, Jets +3, the Under 48. Open

Sniff of Nasty

NFL: FPI and Massey and Sagarin and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin and nfelo haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Broncos at 49ers49ers -2.5should be 49ers -4.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelDamn Near Nasty strengthSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›
7.8% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (7.8%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (7.2%) · Caesars or Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (6.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -105 (6.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (3.4%).
Jets at BearsJets +3should be Jets +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
4.1% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Jets): FanDuel or Fanatics +3 at -110 (4.1%) · BetMGM +3 at -112 (3.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (3.5%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (3.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -115 (3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); 55¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Chiefs at RaidersUnder 48should be 46.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -105 (3.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (1.6%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.3%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (0.6%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.
Falcons at SaintsUnder 48.5should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -118 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Cowboys at TexansCowboys +2.5should be Cowboys +1.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMA Little Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
1.3% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (2.0%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 49¢ (1.7%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Packers at Buccaneers▲Packers to winour data says 66 in 100 · -185A Little Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
1.0% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Packers to win): FanDuel -180 (1.7%) · Caesars -182 (1.4%) · TOM -185 (1.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi -190 (0.4%) · DraftKings -198 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Jaguars at BengalsUnder 52should be 50.7 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -114 (0.7%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.7%).
Chargers at SeahawksUnder 43.5should be 42.3 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM 43.5 at -115 (0.2%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -120 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Moved closer since the 9:14am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:14am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • Baylor at Arizona State Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.5 to +4.0.
  • Texas State at San Diego State Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.5 to +4.0; the price from -110 to -102.
  • Michigan State at Wisconsin Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -102.
  • Texas Tech at Colorado Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -105.
  • Akron at Central Michigan Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Akron +8.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -6.0 to +7.0; the market drifted 0.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Kentucky at South Carolina Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Kentucky +3.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to +2.5; the price from -115 to +100.
  • Washington at USC Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Washington +10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from +9.0 to +9.5; the price from -110 to +100.
  • Falcons at Saints Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm · Sniff of Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Saints -2.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -3.0 to -2.5; the price from +100 to -120. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

And 8 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 7:17am✓SagarinSun 7:17am✓MasseyMon 8:25am✓All 4 in the Sauce.
NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPIMon 3:27pm✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyMon 8:25am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 30 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 28 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears
NFL 7:15pm
Eagles -3.5
should be Eagles -3.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Eagles by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 3.5
FPI
Eagles by 5.5
Sagarin
Eagles by 0.5
Massey
Eagles by 1.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 3.5opened Eagles by 3.5now Eagles by 3.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.82.3 pts over the market
FPI
40.32.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.6on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.6opened 44now 42.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -11042.5 -106+165-195
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢42.5 -107 50¢+159 37¢-191 64¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11342.5 -106+165-185
All 26 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -11042.5 -106+165-195
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢42.5 -107 50¢+159 37¢-191 64¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -10842 -113+165-200
BetAnything+3.5 -11542.5 -105+165-195
BetMGM—42.5 -108+165-210
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11342.5 -106+170-195
betPARX+3.5 -10842 -113+165-200
BetRivers+3.5 -10842 -113+165-200
BetUS+3.5 -11542.5 -110+167-195
Bovada+3.5 -11542.5 -110+165-195
Caesars+3.5 -11542.5 -107+168-197
Courtside+3.5 -11542.5 -106+168-194
DraftKings+3.5 -11542.5 -108+164-198
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in42.5 51¢ -113 all-in37¢ +156 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11042.5 -110+160-195
FanDuel+3.5 -10842.5 -110+166-198
Fliff+3.5 -11541.5 -115+165-215
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11042 -110+170-200
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11042 -110+170-200
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11042 -110+170-200
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11042.5 -103+170-195
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11542 -110+165-197
Pinnacle+3.5 -11342.5 -106+165-185
Polymarket+3.5 -11342.5 -104+170-178
ReBet+3.5 -11042.5 -110+165-197
theScore Bet+3.5 -11042.5 -110+170-200

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears +3.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): FanDuel +3.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Bears to win · +165 at FanDuel
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Bears to win): Caesars +168 (-0.8%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +166 (-1.0%) · DraftKings +164 (-1.3%) · Fanatics +160 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 37¢ (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 42.5 · -114 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars 42.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-2.8%) · TOM 42.5 at -114 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.5+104
FPI+5.5+159
Sagarin+0.5-118
Massey+1.5-104
Market (22 books)+3.5+172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.542.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears +3.5-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML+165+174-1.2%
TotalUnder 42.5-114-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Oct 1

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns
NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm
Browns +2.5
should be Browns +2 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Steelers by 2.5TOM, -102
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
FPI
Steelers by 11.6 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Massey
Steelers by 11.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Steelers by 20.3 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Browns. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 2opened Steelers by 2.5now Steelers by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM
The Four
Massey
38.6on the market
FPI
36.71.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
37.70.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 37.7opened 38now 38.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -10238.5 -110+125-150
Kalshi+2.538.5+124 43¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +10038 -115+127-143
All 26 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -10238.5 -110+125-150
Kalshi+2.538.5+124 43¢-155 59¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10537.5 -113+120-143
BetAnything+2.5 -10538.5 -110+125-145
BetMGM+2.5 -10538.5 -108+125-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10238.5 -110+130-150
betPARX+2.5 -10537.5 -113+120-143
BetRivers+2.5 -10538 -108+120-143
BetUS+2 +10038.5 -110+129-150
Bovada+2.5 -10538.5 -110+125-145
Caesars+2.5 -10638.5 -110+128-152
Courtside+2.5 +10038.5 -108+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 +10038.5 -110+124-148
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in39.5 48¢ -100 all-in44¢ +117 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10538.5 -110+120-145
FanDuel+2.5 -10838.5 -104+122-144
Fliff+2.5 -10538.5 -110+125-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10038 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 +10038 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 +10038 -110+125-145
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10338.5 -107+130-150
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -10538.5 -110+110-140
Pinnacle+2.5 +10038 -115+127-143
Polymarket+2.538.5 +100+133-138
ReBet+2.5 +10038.5 -110+124-146
theScore Bet+2.5 +10037.5 -115+125-145

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +2.5 · -102 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +2.5 at +100 (1.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -102 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.0%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +125 at BetMGM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Browns to win): Caesars +128 (1.6%) · BetMGM, TOM, Kalshi or DraftKings +125 (1.0%) · FanDuel +122 (0.4%) · Fanatics +120 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 38.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 37. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 38.5 at -109 (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 38.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 38.5 at 52¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.6%) · FanDuel 38.5 at -118 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +2.5 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 74°F, 48% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $137 available; Over 38.5, only $18 available; Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 5 more.

TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
FPI+1.0+104
Sagarinhasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Massey+1.0+104
Market (22 books)+2.5+131
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.537.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+125+120+1.0%
SpreadCleveland Browns +2.5-102-104+0.5%
TotalUnder 38.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico State
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pm
Western Kentucky +2
should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico State by 2, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico State by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
New Mexico State by 1
FPI
Western Kentucky by 0.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Western Kentucky by 4.5
Nasty Number
New Mexico State by 1.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico State by 1.5opened New Mexico State by 1now New Mexico State by 2SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico State by 1 to New Mexico State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.61.6 pts over the market
Massey
56on the market
Nasty Number
56.80.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 53.5now 56SunMon

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-2 -11056 -115-130+110
Pinnacle-2.5 -11156.5 -107-133+114
All 21 books
New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-2 -11056 -115-130+110
Bally Bet-2 -11056 -112-132+108
BetAnything-2.5 -11556.5 -110-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -10856.5 -108-130+110
BetOnline.ag-2 -11056 -115-130+110
betPARX-2 -11056 -112-132+108
BetRivers-2 -11256 -113-134+108
BetUS-2 -11056.5 -110-130+110
Bovada-2.5 -11556.5 -110-135+115
Caesars-2.5 -10856.5 -108-129+109
Courtside-2.5 -10856.5 -106-127+112
DraftKings-2.5 -10856.5 -108-130+110
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in54.5 57¢ -144 all-in57¢ -144 all-in49¢ -104 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11056.5 -110-130+110
FanDuel-2.5 -11056.5 -114-126+105
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11555.5 -115-130+110
LowVig.ag-2 -10656 -114-130+110
MyBookie.ag-2 -11056.5 -110-136+111
Pinnacle-2.5 -11156.5 -107-133+114
ReBet-2.5 -11456.5 -114-139+109
theScore Bet-2.5 -10557.5 -115-125+105

Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Kentucky): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -113 (-1.1%) · TOM +2 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Western Kentucky to win · +110 at DraftKings
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Western Kentucky to win): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +110 (-0.4%) · Caesars +109 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +105 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 56.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · TOM 56 at -115 (-2.1%) · Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-103
FPI+0.5-100
SagarinPK+100
Massey+4.5+182
Market (19 books)-2.0-124
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.056.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5-110-108-0.4%
MoneylineWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers ML+110+112-0.4%
TotalOver 56.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at Tulsa
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pm
Tulsa -1
should be Tulsa -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Tulsa →
Market
Tulsa by 1TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Tulsa by 4.5
FPI
North Texas by 3
Sagarin
Tulsa by 1.5
Massey
North Texas by 9.5
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 0.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 0.5opened Tulsa by 2.5now Tulsa by 1SunMon

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.60.6 pts over the market
Massey
613 pts over the market
Weather
-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.80.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 57.5now 58SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1 -10858 -110-118-102
Kalshi-1.557.5-121 53¢+101 48¢
Pinnacle-1 -11058 +100-116+100
All 22 books
Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1 -10858 -110-118-102
Kalshi-1.557.5-121 53¢+101 48¢
Bally Bet-1 -11457.5 -109-121+100
BetAnything-1 -11057.5 -110-118-102
BetMGM-1 -11057.5 -112-118-102
BetOnline.ag-1 -10858 -110-118-102
betPARX-1 -11457.5 -109-121+100
BetRivers-1.5 -10857.5 -110-122-103
BetUS-1 -11057.5 -110-120+100
Bovada-1 -11057.5 -110-120+100
Caesars-1 -10857.5 -115-118+100
Courtside-1.5 -10557.5 -110-118+102
DraftKings-1.5 -10557.5 -112-120+100
DraftKings Predictions-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in57.5 54¢ -127 all-in56¢ -138 all-in51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics-1.5 -11057.5 -110-115-105
FanDuel-1.5 -11057.5 -114-115-104
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -10557.5 -110-120+100
LowVig.ag-1 -10458 -108-118-102
MyBookie.ag-1 -11057.5 -110-119-103
Pinnacle-1 -11058 +100-116+100
ReBet-1.5 -11157.5 -114-121-105
theScore Bet-1.5 -10557.5 -115-115-105

Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (North Texas): FanDuel or Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · BetMGM +1 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +1.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · TOM +1 at -112 (-2.0%) · Caesars +1 at -113 (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
North Texas to win · -102 at BetMGM
We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (North Texas to win): Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars +101 (-0.4%) · BetMGM or TOM -102 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -104 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -105 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 58.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 57.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -114 (-2.0%) · Caesars 57.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · TOM 58 at -110 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -1.5, only $0 available; Over 57.5, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 0.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.5-179
FPI+3.0+132
Sagarin-1.5-109
Massey+9.5+311
Market (19 books)-1.0-113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.058.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +1.5-110-109-0.3%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML-102+102-1.0%
TotalOver 58.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Fri Oct 2

3 gamesBest: Pittsburgh +3.0, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Pittsburgh +3
should be Pittsburgh +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · +100 at BetMGM · was +6
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Pittsburgh +3.0 at +100 at BetMGM. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →
Market
Virginia Tech by 3TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
a pick'em3.2 pts our side
FPI
Pittsburgh by 2.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 0.52.4 pts our side
Massey
Pittsburgh by 35.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 2.50.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Pittsburgh, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 2.5opened Virginia Tech by 3.5now Virginia Tech by 3SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.74.8 pts under the market
Massey
51.92.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.83.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 52.5now 54.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11554.5 -115-160+135
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢—-167 61¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10154.5 -115-170+144
All 22 books
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11554.5 -115-160+135
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢—-167 61¢+140 40¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10755 -108-167+138
BetAnything-3.5 -11055 -110-165+145
BetMGM-3 -12054.5 -112-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3 -11554.5 -115-160+140
betPARX-3.5 -10755 -108-167+138
BetRivers-3.5 -10855 -109-167+135
BetUS-3 -11555 -110-160+138
Bovada-3.5 +10055 -110-170+145
Caesars-3.5 -10554.5 -112-164+139
Courtside-3.5 -10254.5 -110-159+139
DraftKings-3.5 -10254.5 -112-162+136
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in54.5 53¢ -122 all-in61¢ -170 all-in42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics-3.5 -10555 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 -10554.5 -110-164+136
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10554.5 -115-165+140
LowVig.ag-3 -11154.5 -114-160+140
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11054.5 -110-170+138
Pinnacle-3.5 +10154.5 -115-170+144
ReBet-3.5 -10554.5 -119-174+135
theScore Bet-3.5 -10555.5 -105-155+135

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh +3.0 · +100 at BetMGM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): BetMGM +3 at +100 (3.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +3.5 at -115 (3.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (3.0%) · TOM +3 at -105 (2.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Pittsburgh to win · +135 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): Fanatics, BetMGM, Kalshi or Caesars +140 (3.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM +136 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM or TOM 54.5 at -105 (0.5%) · DraftKings, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-0.2%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $107 available; Under 55.5, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+PK+100
FPI+2.5+120
Sagarin-0.5-101
Massey+3.0+133
Market (19 books)-3.0-153
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.550.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers +3.0+100-117+3.9%
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML+135+121+2.8%
TotalUnder 54.5-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at Delaware
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 49.5
should be 50.7 · getting 1.2 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Delaware →
Market
Liberty by 7TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Liberty by 114 pts against us
FPI
Liberty by 4.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Liberty by 15.9 pts our side
Massey
Liberty by 5.51.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Liberty by 6.50.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Delaware. SP+ at Liberty by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Liberty by 6.5opened Liberty by 7now Liberty by 7SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.93.4 pts over the market
Massey
52.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.83.3 pts over the market
Over 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.8opened 49now 49.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 -10549.5 -110+215-275
Kalshi+7.5 -131 55¢49.5+229 29¢—
Pinnacle+7 -10650 -107+227-285
All 21 books
Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 -10549.5 -110+215-275
Kalshi+7.5 -131 55¢49.5+229 29¢—
Bally Bet+7 -10850 -108+225-286
BetAnything+7 -11050 -110+225-270
BetMGM+7 -10549.5 -110+225-275
BetOnline.ag+7 -10549.5 -110+226-275
betPARX+7 -10850 -108+225-286
BetRivers+7 -10949.5 -114+225-286
BetUS+7 -10550 -110+230-275
Bovada+7 -11050 -110+230-280
Caesars+7 -11049.5 -115+220-275
Courtside+7 -10649.5 -108+225-263
DraftKings+7 -10849.5 -110+220-270
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in48.5 56¢ -138 all-in32¢ +194 all-in75¢ -335 all-in
Fanatics+7 -11050 -110+225-280
FanDuel+7.5 -12249.5 -108+225-280
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -12049.5 -110+225-275
LowVig.ag+7 -10149.5 -108+226-275
MyBookie.ag+7 -11050 -110+232-295
Pinnacle+7 -10650 -107+227-285
ReBet+7.5 -12549.5 -116+226-300

Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Delaware): BetMGM or TOM +7 at -105 (2.3%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (1.6%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (1.5%) · Fanatics or Caesars +7 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 55¢ (-0.2%).
Not Nasty
Delaware to win · +229 (29¢) at Kalshi
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Delaware to win): Kalshi 29¢ (1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +225 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars +220 (0.8%) · TOM +215 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 32¢ on the app (+194 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 53. That's 3.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -108 (1.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars 49.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: Liberty Flames -7.5, only $16 available; Over 49.5, only $63 available; Liberty Flames ML, only $236 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLiberty by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++11.0+380
FPI+4.5+180
Sagarin+1.0+106
Massey+5.5+193
Market (18 books)+7.0+225
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.552.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +7.0-105-115+2.3%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+229+212+1.6%
TotalOver 49.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at Northwestern
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pm
Penn State -2.5
should be Penn State -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Penn State by 2.5TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
Penn State by 7.5
FPI
Penn State by 2
Sagarin
Northwestern by 0.5
Nasty Number
Penn State by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 2.5opened Penn State by 2.5now Penn State by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.90.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.90.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 45.5now 44.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10444.5 -110+120-140
Pinnacle+2.5 -10245.5 -107+118-139
All 21 books
Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10444.5 -110+120-140
Bally Bet+2.5 -10745.5 -108+116-141
BetAnything+3 -12045.5 -110+125-145
BetMGM+2.5 -10545.5 -105+115-140
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10444.5 -110+120-140
betPARX+2.5 -10745.5 -108+116-141
BetRivers+2.5 -10845.5 -109+115-143
BetUS+3 -12045.5 -110+120-140
Bovada+2.5 -10545.5 -110+120-140
Caesars+2.5 -10345.5 -112+118-139
Courtside+2.5 -10545.5 -106+122-139
DraftKings+2.5 -10545.5 -108+120-142
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in45.5 51¢ -113 all-in46¢ +108 all-in57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -11045.5 -110+112-134
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-140
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10044.5 -108+120-140
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11045.5 -110+115-140
Pinnacle+2.5 -10245.5 -107+118-139
ReBet+2.5 -11145.5 -111+110-146
theScore Bet+2.5 -11045.5 -110+115-135

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +2.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northwestern): Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-0.7%) · TOM +2.5 at -104 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.9%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Northwestern to win · +120 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): DraftKings or TOM +120 (-0.1%) · Caesars +118 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +112 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 44.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -108 (-2.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-3.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 60°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+269
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5+100
Masseyrates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)+2.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.544.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +2.5-104-100-0.9%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+120+121-0.1%
TotalOver 44.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Oct 3

51 gamesBest: Ohio -3.0, Nastiest
GameThe call
Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Ohio -3Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be Ohio -5 · getting 2 pts · -110 at TOM · was -3.5
NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nastiest. Take Ohio -3.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Ohio by 3TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Ohio by 9.56.7 pts our side
FPI
Ohio by 9.56.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Ohio by 41 pts our side
Massey
Ohio by 129 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio by 52 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Ohio, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio by 5opened Ohio by 4.5now Ohio by 3SunMon

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
55.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3 -11050.5 -115+133-158
Pinnacle+3 -10250.5 -114+136-160
All 20 books
Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3 -11050.5 -115+133-158
Bally Bet+3.5 -11350.5 -113+138-175
BetAnything+3 -11050.5 -110——
BetMGM+3 -10550.5 -110+135-160
BetOnline.ag+3 -11050.5 -115+138-158
betPARX+3.5 -11350.5 -113+138-175
BetRivers+3.5 -11350.5 -113+138-175
BetUS+3 -11050.5 -115+138-160
Bovada+3 -10551 -105+135-160
Courtside+3 -10650.5 -110+139-159
DraftKings+3 -10850.5 -112+136-162
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 56¢ -138 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in45¢ +113 all-in62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics+3 -10550.5 -115+135-160
FanDuel+3.5 -12050.5 -114+134-162
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11050.5 -110+140-170
LowVig.ag+3 -10650.5 -114+138-158
MyBookie.ag+3 -11050.5 -110+132-162
Pinnacle+3 -10250.5 -114+136-160
ReBet+3.5 -13350.5 -116+126-169
theScore Bet+2.5 +10550.5 -115+130-150

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -3.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Ohio): TOM -3 at -110 (5.1%) · DraftKings -3 at -112 (4.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -3 at -115 (4.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Ohio to win · -158 at TOM
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 61. That's value. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Ohio to win): TOM -158 (3.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -160 (3.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -162 (3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 50.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F, 40% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onOhio by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+323
FPI+9.5+312
Sagarin+4.0+170
Massey+12.0+407
Market (18 books)+3.0+139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio Bobcats -3.0-110-135+5.1%
MoneylineOhio Bobcats ML-158-186+3.8%
TotalOver 50.5-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at Arizona
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pm
Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings
Bet it · now Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars
▲Nasty Pick · called at +7 -102Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.5.

The spread

← more Cincinnati than the bookmore Arizona →
Market
Arizona by 7
The Four
SP+
Arizona by 3.53.4 pts our side
FPI
Arizona by 0.56.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona by 5.51.3 pts our side
Massey
Arizona by 42.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona by 6.50.7 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 6.5opened Arizona by 7now Arizona by 7SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55
The Four
SP+ pace
60.35.5 pts over the market
Massey
54.30.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.32.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.3opened 55now 55SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.554.5-276 72¢+217 30¢
Pinnacle-7 -11455 -109-291+232
All 21 books
Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.554.5-276 72¢+217 30¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -10554.5 -110-286+225
BetAnything-7 -11555 -110——
BetMGM-7 -11254.5 -115-285+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11555 -110-280+230
betPARX-7.5 -10554.5 -110-286+225
BetRivers-7 -11854.5 -112-295+225
BetUS-7 -11555 -110-280+235
Bovada-7 -11555 -110-285+235
Caesars-7 -11754.5 -117-290+235
Courtside-7 -11354.5 -116-283+241
DraftKings-7 -11554.5 -118-290+235
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 52¢ -117 all-in54.5 56¢ -138 all-in76¢ -355 all-in31¢ +203 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11555 -110-285+230
FanDuel-7.5 +10054.5 -115-275+220
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10554.5 -110-275+225
LowVig.ag-7 -11155 -108-280+230
MyBookie.ag-7 -11055 -110-290+228
Pinnacle-7 -11455 -109-291+232
ReBet-7.5 -10954.5 -119-310+216
theScore Bet-7.5 +10054.5 -115-320+260

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -104 at Caesars
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Cincinnati): Caesars +7 at -104 (2.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +7 at -105 (2.5%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (1.7%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Cincinnati to win · +230 at Fanatics
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): DraftKings or Caesars +235 (2.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +230 (1.9%) · FanDuel +220 (1.0%) · Kalshi 30¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 31¢ on the app (+203 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 54.5 at -117 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -118 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Cincinnati, now Damn Near Nasty.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $142 available; Over 54.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-164
FPI-0.5-102
Sagarin-5.5-197
Massey-4.0-173
Market (19 books)-7.0-265
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.057.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +7.0-104-116+2.7%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+230+210+1.9%
TotalOver 55.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20.

Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South Florida
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars
Bet it · now South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings
Nasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says South Florida by 6, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore South Florida →
Market
South Florida by 6TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
South Florida by 126.2 pts our side
FPI
South Florida by 6on the market
Sagarin
South Florida by 7.51.7 pts our side
Massey
South Florida by 11.55.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Florida by 71.2 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean South Florida. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 7opened South Florida by 5.5now South Florida by 6SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
60.810.3 pts over the market
Massey
56.86.3 pts over the market
Weather
-1.057% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
57.87.3 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.8opened 51now 50.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6 -11050.5 -105-240+190
Kalshi-6.5 -103 49¢—-250 70¢—
Pinnacle-6.5 -10550 -112-242+198
All 22 books
South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6 -11050.5 -105-240+190
Kalshi-6.5 -103 49¢—-250 70¢—
Bally Bet-6 -11251.5 -108-235+185
BetAnything-6 -11050 -110——
BetMGM-6 -11050.5 -110-235+195
BetOnline.ag-6 -11050.5 -105-240+200
betPARX-6 -11251.5 -108-235+185
BetRivers-6 -11251.5 -108-235+185
BetUS-6 -11050.5 -105-240+203
Bovada-6.5 -10550 -115-240+200
Caesars-6 -11050.5 -112-240+196
Courtside-6 -10850.5 -103-232+199
DraftKings-6 -11050.5 -105-238+195
DraftKings Predictions-5.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in72¢ -284 all-in35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -10550.5 -110-245+200
FanDuel-5.5 -11550.5 -114-240+195
Hard Rock Bet-5.5 -12050.5 -120-230+185
LowVig.ag-6 -10650.5 -103-240+200
MyBookie.ag-6 -11050.5 -110-238+190
Pinnacle-6.5 -10550 -112-242+198
ReBet-5.5 -11950.5 -114-250+181
theScore Bet-6.5 -11050.5 -115-230+195

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -6.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (South Florida): Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (3.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -6 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (3.6%) · Fanatics -6.5 at -105 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
South Florida to win · -240 at DraftKings
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (South Florida to win): BetMGM -235 (2.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Caesars or TOM -238 (1.7%) · Fanatics -245 (1.1%) · Kalshi 70¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 72¢ on the app (-284 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or TOM 50.5 at -105 (3.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (2.8%) · Caesars 50.5 at -112 (2.3%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +6.5, only $21 available; Over 50.5, only $85 available; Under 50.5, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-411
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-7.5-280
Massey-11.5-393
Market (19 books)-6.0-230
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.557.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -6.0-110-127+3.6%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML-240-258+1.5%
TotalOver 50.5-105-123shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at Massachusetts
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Massachusetts -5.5
should be Massachusetts -7 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was -4.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Massachusetts -5.5: Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 5.3% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Massachusetts →
Market
Massachusetts by 5.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Massachusetts by 148.5 pts our side
FPI
Massachusetts by 12.57 pts our side
Sagarin
Massachusetts by 6.51.1 pts our side
Massey
Eastern Michigan by 1.57 pts against us
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 71.7 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Massachusetts. Massey at Eastern Michigan by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 7opened Massachusetts by 5.5now Massachusetts by 5.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
444.5 pts under the market
Massey
501.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
471.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 48now 48.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-5.5 -11048.5 -110-210+170
Kalshi-5.5—-208 66¢+159 37¢
Pinnacle-4.5 -11248.5 -110-205+170
All 21 books
Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-5.5 -11048.5 -110-210+170
Kalshi-5.5—-208 66¢+159 37¢
Bally Bet-5 -11248.5 -114-205+163
BetAnything-5.5 -11048.5 -110——
BetMGM-5.5 -10848.5 -108-210+175
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11048.5 -110-210+180
betPARX-5 -11248.5 -114-205+163
BetRivers-5 -11248.5 -114-205+163
BetUS-5 -11048.5 -110-210+180
Bovada-5 -11048.5 -110-200+170
Courtside-5.5 -10548.5 -113-200+174
DraftKings-5.5 -10548.5 -115-205+170
DraftKings Predictions-4.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 54¢ -127 all-in68¢ -234 all-in39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics-5 -11048.5 -110-205+170
FanDuel-5.5 -11247.5 -115-220+180
Hard Rock Bet-4.5 -11548.5 -115-200+165
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10648.5 -108-210+180
MyBookie.ag—49 -110——
Pinnacle-4.5 -11248.5 -110-205+170
ReBet-5.5 -11148.5 -116-238+173
theScore Bet-5.5 -11547.5 -115-215+180

Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts -5.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -5.5 at -105 (5.3%) · Fanatics -5 at -110 (5.2%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (4.6%) · TOM -5.5 at -110 (4.2%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -112 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Massachusetts to win · -210 (66¢) at Kalshi
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 68. That's value. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): DraftKings or Fanatics -205 (4.4%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or TOM -208 (4.1%) · FanDuel -220 (2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 68¢ on the app (-234 all-in) (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 48.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -5.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen -5.5, only $50 available; Over 48.5, only $51 available; Under 48.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.0-483
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-6.5-217
Massey+1.5+112
Market (18 books)-5.5-201
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUMass Minutemen -5.5-105-130+5.3%
MoneylineUMass Minutemen ML-210-253+3.9%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
Baylor +4
should be Baylor +2 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +4.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +4.0: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Baylor than the bookmore Arizona State →
Market
Arizona State by 4
The Four
SP+
Baylor by 36.7 pts our side
FPI
Baylor by 2.56.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona State by 51 pts against us
Massey
Arizona State by 30.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona State by 21.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Baylor. Sagarin at Arizona State by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona State by 2opened Arizona State by 4now Arizona State by 4SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.24.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.83.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
490.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49opened 51now 49.5SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Baylor +4.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Baylor): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (6.8%) · Caesars +4 at -114 (6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (3.2%).
A Little Nasty
Baylor to win · +160 at Fanatics
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Baylor loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Baylor to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +160 (8.1%) · BetMGM or Caesars +155 (7.3%) · FanDuel +146 (5.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (4.5%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · Caesars 49.5 at -113 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-7.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail
We settle onArizona State by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+136
FPI+2.5+121
Sagarin-5.0-182
Massey-3.0-148
Market (19 books)-4.0-177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.549.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineBaylor Bears ML+160+115+8.1%
SpreadBaylor Bears +4.0-110-149+7.4%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.1.

Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
San Diego State +4
should be San Diego State +3 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. San Diego State +4.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.4% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Texas State than the bookmore San Diego State →
Market
Texas State by 4
The Four
SP+
Texas State by 4on the market
FPI
Texas State by 1.52.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Texas State by 0.53.6 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em3.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas State by 30.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 3opened Texas State by 3.5now Texas State by 4SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59
The Four
SP+ pace
63.94.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.23.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
59.60.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 59now 59SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San Diego State +4.0 · -102 at BetMGM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (San Diego State): BetMGM +4 at -102 (3.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (2.7%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (1.8%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (1.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (1.5%).
A Little Nasty
San Diego State to win · +158 at Caesars
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +160 (2.3%) · Caesars +158 (2.0%) · Fanatics +155 (1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 59 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -108 (-2.6%) · Caesars 59.5 at -109 (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +4.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+166
FPI+1.5+110
Sagarin+0.5-100
MasseyPK-100
Market (19 books)+4.0+175
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.059.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +4.0-102-117+3.4%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+158+145+2.0%
TotalOver 59.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at Houston
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UCF +12.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.5: all 4 ratings 6.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Houston →
Market
Houston by 12.5
The Four
SP+
Houston by 5.56.8 pts our side
FPI
Houston by 75.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Houston by 84.6 pts our side
Massey
Houston by 4.57.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Houston by 10.51.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Houston by 10.5opened Houston by 11.5now Houston by 12.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
52.71.6 pts over the market
Massey
51.90.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.31.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.3opened 51now 51SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-11.551.5 -107 50¢-458 81¢+351 21¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -10851 -112-492+357
All 21 books
Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-11.551.5 -107 50¢-458 81¢+351 21¢
Bally Bet-12.5 -10951 -113-560+380
BetAnything-12 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-12 -11051.5 -105-450+360
BetOnline.ag-12 -11051.5 -105-450+350
betPARX-12.5 -10951 -113-560+380
BetRivers-12.5 -11051 -114-560+380
BetUS-12 -11051.5 -105-450+355
Bovada-12.5 -11051 -115-490+355
Caesars-12 -10951.5 -108-440+340
Courtside-12.5 -10651.5 +100-440+360
DraftKings-12.5 -10851.5 -102-455+350
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 52¢ -117 all-in83¢ -566 all-in24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics-12.5 -11051 -110-475+360
FanDuel-12.5 -11051.5 -112-520+385
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11051.5 -105-550+375
LowVig.ag-12 -10651.5 -103-450+350
MyBookie.ag-12 -11051 -110-549+380
Pinnacle-12.5 -10851 -112-492+357
ReBet-12.5 -11651.5 -109-575+360
theScore Bet-12.5 -11051.5 -115-550+380

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel or Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (0.5%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (0.0%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 50¢ (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +385 at FanDuel
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): FanDuel +385 (0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +360 (-0.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +351 (-0.8%) · Caesars +340 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-4.6%).
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.1%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Kalshi or Caesars 51.5 at -107 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -112 (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 46% chance of rain.

A play at +14.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -11.5, only $12 available; Under 51.5, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-195
FPI-7.0-255
Sagarin-8.0-284
Massey-4.5-179
Market (19 books)-12.5-442
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.052.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +12.5-110-113+0.6%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+385+368priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at Wisconsin
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am
Michigan State +10
should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM
A Little Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 10
The Four
SP+
Wisconsin by 91.4 pts our side
FPI
Wisconsin by 64.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 110.9 pts against us
Massey
Wisconsin by 64.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 9.50.8 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Michigan State. Sagarin at Wisconsin by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 9.5opened Wisconsin by 10now Wisconsin by 10SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
SP+ pace
39.93.8 pts under the market
Massey
430.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.52.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.5opened 44.5now 44SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): BetMGM +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Caesars +10.5 at -112 (1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -122 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
Michigan State to win · +320 at DraftKings
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): Fanatics +325 (0.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +320 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +270 (25¢ on the app) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 43.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Caesars 43.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-9.0-305
FPI-6.0-202
Sagarin-11.0-381
Massey-6.0-204
Market (19 books)-10.0-372
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.541.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +10.0-102-109+1.6%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+320+311priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 43.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pm
Fresno State to winMoved our way · 1.5 pts
our data says 50 in 100 · +110
A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At +110 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Washington State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 79.2 pts our side
FPI
Fresno State by 46.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington State by 30.6 pts against us
Massey
Washington State by 52.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Washington State by 0.52 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Fresno State. Sagarin at Washington State by 3 and Massey at Washington State by 5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington State by 0.5opened Washington State by 1now Washington State by 2.5SunMon

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.36.1 pts under the market
Massey
45.21.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.83.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 46.5now 46.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Fresno State +2.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (2.3%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · +110 at Fanatics
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · FanDuel +104 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State to win · +110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onWashington State by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+4.0+174
Sagarin-3.0-139
Massey-5.0-185
Market (18 books)-2.5-122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.542.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML+110-100+2.4%
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs +2.5-110-121+2.3%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Miami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was -14.5
A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Miami (OH) by 24.511.3 pts our side
FPI
Miami (OH) by 162.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 184.8 pts our side
Massey
Miami (OH) by 111.8 pts against us
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 14.51.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Miami (OH). Massey at Miami (OH) by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 14.5opened Miami (OH) by 14.5now Miami (OH) by 13SunMon

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.12.6 pts over the market
Massey
430.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.1opened 46now 42.5SunMon

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11042.5 -110-575+405
Kalshi——-564 84¢—
Pinnacle-13 -10843 -110-581+406
All 21 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11042.5 -110-575+405
Kalshi——-564 84¢—
Bally Bet-14 -10843.5 -120-715+480
BetAnything-13 -11043 -110——
BetMGM-13 -11043.5 -105-600+450
BetOnline.ag-13 -11042.5 -110-575+431
betPARX-14 -10843.5 -120-715+480
BetRivers-14 -10843.5 -120-715+480
BetUS-13 -11042.5 -110-575+440
Bovada-13 -11043 -110-585+410
Courtside-13.5 -10342.5 -110-530+423
DraftKings-13.5 -10542.5 -112-550+410
DraftKings Predictions-12.5 55¢ -132 all-in42.5 54¢ -127 all-in86¢ -733 all-in21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics-13 -11043 -110-575+425
FanDuel-13.5 -10543.5 -114-630+450
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12043.5 -120-700+475
LowVig.ag-13 -10642.5 -108-575+431
MyBookie.ag-13 -11043 -110-649+440
Pinnacle-13 -10843 -110-581+406
ReBet-13.5 -11143.5 -111-699+410
theScore Bet-13.5 -10543.5 -115-700+450

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Miami (OH) to win · -575 at Fanatics
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings -550 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM -575 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -600 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -630 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 42.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-1.3%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 44% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $51 available; Under 43.5, only $34 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $266 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1623
FPI-16.0-575
Sagarin-18.0-723
Massey-11.0-388
Market (18 books)-13.0-550
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.544.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami (OH) RedHawks -13.0-110-117+1.4%
MoneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks ML-575-506priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 42.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at Louisiana
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Over 47
should be 48.4 · getting 1.4 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore Louisiana →
Market
Louisiana by 6.5
The Four
SP+
Louisiana by 8.52.2 pts our side
FPI
Louisiana by 92.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Louisiana by 92.7 pts our side
Massey
Louisiana by 70.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 70.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Louisiana. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 7opened Louisiana by 7now Louisiana by 6.5SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Louisiana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
55.78.8 pts over the market
Massey
51.94.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.86.9 pts over the market
Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.8opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Louisiana -6.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.6%).
Not Nasty
Louisiana to win · -253 at FanDuel
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -250 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -255 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -260 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 73¢ on the app (-300 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 36% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-9.0-308
Sagarin-9.0-310
Massey-7.0-232
Market (18 books)-6.5-233
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.053.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5-110-114+1.0%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML-253-245-0.7%
TotalOver 47.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConn
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UConn +6.5
should be UConn +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +7.5
A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Syracuse by 6, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 5.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore UConn →
Market
Syracuse by 6TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Syracuse by 0.55.7 pts our side
FPI
Syracuse by 5.50.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Syracuse by 5.50.4 pts our side
Massey
Syracuse by 23.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Syracuse by 5.50.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Syracuse by 5.5opened Syracuse by 7.5now Syracuse by 6.5SunMon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.62.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.83.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.70.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.7opened 52now 51SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+6 -10551 -110+195-245
Kalshi+6.5 -116 52¢50.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+6 -10651 -104+195-239
All 21 books
UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+6 -10551 -110+195-245
Kalshi+6.5 -116 52¢50.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+6 -10851.5 -115+185-235
BetAnything+6.5 -11050 -110——
BetMGM+6.5 -10850.5 -110+200-235
BetOnline.ag+6 -10551 -110+203-245
betPARX+6 -10851.5 -115+185-235
BetRivers+6 -10851.5 -115+185-235
BetUS+6 -10551 -110+205-245
Bovada+6 -11050.5 -110+195-235
Courtside+6.5 -11550.5 -110+205-239
DraftKings+6.5 -11550.5 -112+200-245
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in35¢ +171 all-in72¢ -284 all-in
Fanatics+6.5 -11550.5 -115+200-245
FanDuel+6.5 -10550.5 -114+205-255
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11551.5 -115+185-230
LowVig.ag+6 -10151 -108+203-245
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11051 -110+204-260
Pinnacle+6 -10651 -104+195-239
ReBet+6.5 -11150.5 -119+195-270
theScore Bet+6.5 -11550.5 -110+200-240

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +6.5 at -105 (0.8%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (0.1%) · TOM +6 at -105 (-0.4%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Kalshi +6.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.9%).
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +205 at FanDuel
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (UConn to win): FanDuel +205 (1.0%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +200 (0.5%) · TOM +195 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 33¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 35¢ on the app (+171 all-in) (-3.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · TOM 51 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSyracuse by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5-100
FPI+5.5+193
Sagarin+5.5+196
Massey+2.0+118
Market (18 books)+6.0+204
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.051.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+205+196+1.0%
SpreadUConn Huskies +6.5-105-109+0.8%
TotalOver 51.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at Colorado
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Texas Tech -13.5
should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was -16
▲A Little Nasty · Texas TechBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Texas Tech. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Colorado →
Market
Texas Tech by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 21.57.9 pts our side
FPI
Texas Tech by 15.52 pts our side
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 10.52.8 pts against us
Massey
Texas Tech by 130.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 140.6 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Texas Tech. Sagarin at Texas Tech by 10.5 and Massey at Texas Tech by 13 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 14opened Texas Tech by 13.5now Texas Tech by 13.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
SP+ pace
49.21 pts under the market
Massey
50.1on the market
Nasty Number
49.70.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.7opened 50now 50SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.5 -112 51¢50.5 -107 50¢+398 19¢-564 84¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -10950 -111+399-569
All 21 books
Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.5 -112 51¢50.5 -107 50¢+398 19¢-564 84¢
Bally Bet+13 -10850.5 -110+390-560
BetAnything+13.5 -11050.5 -110——
BetMGM+13 -10850.5 -108+400-525
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -10950.5 -110+400-525
betPARX+13 -10850.5 -110+390-560
BetRivers+13.5 -11450.5 -112+390-560
BetUS+13.5 -11050.5 -110+405-525
Bovada+13.5 -11050 -110+400-575
Caesars+13 -10950.5 -107+400-530
Courtside+13.5 -11050.5 -108+423-530
DraftKings+13.5 -11250.5 -110+410-550
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in21¢ +335 all-in86¢ -733 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -11550.5 -110+410-550
FanDuel+12.5 -10650.5 -106+375-500
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -11050.5 -110+400-550
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10550.5 -108+400-525
MyBookie.ag+13.5 -11050.5 -110+420-599
Pinnacle+13.5 -10950 -111+399-569
ReBet+13.5 -11150.5 -114+390-649
theScore Bet+12.5 -10550.5 -105+380-550

Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -13.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas Tech): Fanatics -13.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM -13 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -13.5 at -107 (0.3%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Texas Tech to win · -500 at FanDuel
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas Tech to win): FanDuel -500 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or Caesars -525 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -550 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-5.2%).
Off the band
the Under 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Caesars 50.5 at -113 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 53¢ (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-5.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas Tech -13.5 · -105 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Texas Tech.

Across the books: opened +16.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 2.6 away from Texas Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++21.5+1116
FPI+15.5+556
Sagarin+10.5+368
Massey+13.0+430
Market (19 books)+13.5+498
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Tech Red Raiders -13.5-105-108+0.8%
MoneylineTexas Tech Red Raiders ML-500-483priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South Alabama
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 56
should be 57.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 54.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore South Alabama →
Market
South Alabama by 14
The Four
SP+
South Alabama by 161.8 pts our side
FPI
South Alabama by 184 pts our side
Sagarin
South Alabama by 18.54.6 pts our side
Massey
South Alabama by 172.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Alabama by 151 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean South Alabama. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Alabama by 15opened South Alabama by 14now South Alabama by 14SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
65.69.7 pts over the market
Massey
59.13.2 pts over the market
Weather
-1.073% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
61.45.5 pts over the market
Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.4opened 56now 56SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.5—-660 86¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-14 -10656 -109-631+432
All 19 books
South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.5—-660 86¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-14 -11055.5 -110-715+480
BetAnything-14 -11055.5 -110——
BetMGM-14 -10856.5 -105-625+475
BetOnline.ag-14 -10556 -105-615+455
betPARX-14 -11055.5 -110-715+480
BetRivers-14 -11055.5 -110-715+480
BetUS-14 -11056 -105-615+460
Bovada-14 -11056 -110-625+430
Courtside-14 -10656.5 -109-576+455
DraftKings-14 -10855.5 -115-600+440
Fanatics-14 -11056 -110-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -11556.5 -110-650+460
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12055.5 -110-700+475
LowVig.ag-14 -10156 -103-615+455
MyBookie.ag-14 -11055.5 -110-625+430
Pinnacle-14 -10656 -109-631+432
ReBet-14.5 -10955.5 -114-649+400
theScore Bet-13.5 -11556.5 -105-750+475

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama -14.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel -13.5 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -14 at -108 (0.8%) · Fanatics -14 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · -625 at BetMGM
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): DraftKings or Fanatics -600 (-1.3%) · BetMGM -625 (-1.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -650 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (1.5%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars -13.5, only $247 available; Over 56.5, only $83 available; Under 56.5, only $293 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Alabama by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.0-570
FPI-18.0-739
Sagarin-18.5-798
Massey-17.0-621
Market (18 books)-14.0-565
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.061.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars -14.0-110-112+0.4%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML-625-542priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.

California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLV
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Under 54Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 52.7 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 54.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore UNLV →
Market
UNLV by 2.5
The Four
SP+
UNLV by 30.3 pts against us
FPI
UNLV by 1.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
California by 35.8 pts our side
Massey
UNLV by 1.51.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
UNLV by 2.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean California. SP+ at UNLV by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 2.5opened UNLV by 2now UNLV by 2.5SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
50.92.8 pts under the market
Massey
49.83.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.43.4 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 53now 54SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢53.5—+114 45¢
Pinnacle-3 -10154 -103-141+121
All 21 books
UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢53.5—+114 45¢
Bally Bet-2 -11253.5 -112-129+105
BetAnything-2 -11054 -110——
BetMGM-2.5 -11253.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11553.5 -110-135+115
betPARX-2 -11253.5 -112-129+105
BetRivers-2 -11253.5 -112-129+105
BetUS-2.5 -11053.5 -110-135+115
Bovada-3 -10553.5 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -10953.5 -106-136+115
Courtside-2.5 -11253.5 -106-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11253.5 -108-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in59¢ -157 all-in48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -12053.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11052.5 -114-134+112
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -12053.5 -110-130+105
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11153.5 -108-135+115
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11053.5 -110-139+114
Pinnacle-3 -10154 -103-141+121
ReBet-2.5 -11653.5 -114-145+109
theScore Bet-2.5 -11053.5 -110-140+120

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +2.5 · +100 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.6%).
Not Nasty
California to win · +115 at Fanatics
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (California to win): Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +115 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +114 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.0%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $144 available; UNLV Rebels ML, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-139
FPI-1.5-110
Sagarin+3.0+143
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-2.5-128
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.050.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +2.5+100-101+0.4%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML+115+119-0.9%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.8.

Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana Tech
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Over 46Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 47.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 47
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →
Market
Army by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Army by 74.5 pts our side
FPI
Army by 2on the market
Sagarin
Louisiana Tech by 0.52.8 pts against us
Massey
Army by 4.52.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Army by 2.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Army. Sagarin at Louisiana Tech by 0.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Army by 2.5opened Army by 3.5now Army by 1.5SunMon

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Army's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
52.76.5 pts over the market
Massey
50.84.6 pts over the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.84.6 pts over the market
Over 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 47now 46SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi———-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10846 -113+112-131
All 20 books
Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi———-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2 -10946.5 -109+106-130
BetAnything+2 -11047 -110——
BetMGM+2 -10846.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+2 -11046.5 -110+108-128
betPARX+2 -10946.5 -109+106-130
BetRivers+2 -10946.5 -109+106-130
BetUS+2 -11046.5 -110+110-130
Bovada+2.5 -11046 -115+110-130
Courtside+2.5 -11546.5 -108+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11546.5 -110+110-130
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in45.5 55¢ -132 all-in49¢ -104 all-in57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -11046.5 -110+110-130
FanDuel+1.5 -11046.5 -108+100-120
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11545.5 -120+105-130
LowVig.ag+2 -10646.5 -108+108-128
MyBookie.ag+2 -11046.5 -110+108-132
Pinnacle+2.5 -10846 -113+112-131
ReBet+2.5 -11646.5 -116+104-137
theScore Bet+1.5 -11046.5 -105+100-120

Marked: best for Army, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army -1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Army): FanDuel -1.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · BetMGM -2 at -110 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.1%).
Not Nasty
Army to win · -120 at FanDuel
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Army to win): FanDuel -120 (1.0%) · BetMGM -125 (-0.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Army, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +2.5, only $208 available; Army Black Knights -2.5, only $114 available; Over 46.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArmy by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5-100
Massey+4.5+177
Market (18 books)+2.5+120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.050.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineArmy Black Knights ML-120-125+1.0%
SpreadArmy Black Knights -1.5-110-112+0.5%
TotalOver 46.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.6.

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air Force
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Over 46Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 48.3 · getting 2.5 pts · was 49
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 12.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Air Force →
Market
Air Force by 3.5
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 2.5
FPI
Air Force by 4
Sagarin
Air Force by 3.5
Massey
Navy by 0.5
Nasty Number
Air Force by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Air Force by 3.5opened Air Force by 3now Air Force by 3.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 3 to Air Force by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
58.412.7 pts over the market
Massey
57.411.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.912.1 pts over the market
Over 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 12.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 47now 45.5SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢45.5 -121 53¢-167 61¢+134 41¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10145.5 -115-163+138
All 20 books
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢45.5 -121 53¢-167 61¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10845.5 -117-167+135
BetAnything-3.5 -10546 -110——
BetMGM-3 -11546.5 -108-165+138
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -10446 -110-165+145
betPARX-3.5 -10845.5 -117-167+135
BetRivers-3.5 -10845.5 -117-167+135
BetUS-3.5 -10546 -110-165+142
Bovada-3.5 -10546 -110-165+140
Courtside-3.5 -10246.5 -106-166+145
DraftKings-3.5 -10246.5 -108-170+142
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in45.5 54¢ -127 all-in64¢ -194 all-in43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics-3.5 -10546 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 +10446.5 -106-156+130
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -11045.5 -115-165+135
LowVig.ag-3.5 +10046 -108-165+145
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11046.5 -110-180+146
Pinnacle-3.5 -10145.5 -115-163+138
ReBet-3.5 -10946.5 -114-188+140
theScore Bet-3.5 +10546.5 -105-150+130

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy +3.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (-3.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-3.9%) · BetMGM +3 at -105 (-4.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -128 (-5.3%).
Not Nasty
Navy to win · +140 at Fanatics
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Navy to win): DraftKings +142 (-2.2%) · Fanatics +140 (-2.5%) · BetMGM +138 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 41¢ (-3.5%) · FanDuel +130 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. That's 12.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (2.7%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-121
FPI-4.0-169
Sagarin-3.5-158
Massey+0.5+102
Market (18 books)-3.5-152
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.057.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen +3.5-110-104-1.5%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML+140+155-2.5%
TotalOver 46.0-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.1.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 58.5Moved our way · 2 pts
should be 60.7 · getting 2.1 pts · was 59.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisville than the bookmore NC State →
Market
Louisville by 5.5
The Four
SP+
Louisville by 4.5
FPI
Louisville by 6
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Louisville by 4
Nasty Number
Louisville by 50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 5opened Louisville by 6now Louisville by 5.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
67.48.8 pts over the market
Massey
63.54.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
65.56.8 pts over the market
Over 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 65.5opened 60.5now 58.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

NC State +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (NC State): Caesars +5.5 at -109 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +5.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
NC State to win · +180 at Caesars
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (NC State to win): DraftKings +185 (-0.4%) · Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM +181 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +172 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 64. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (3.1%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -112 (2.7%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (2.0%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 58.5 at -117 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F, 32% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.5+175
FPI+6.0+200
SagarinPK-100
Massey+4.0+170
Market (19 books)+5.5+202
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.565.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack +5.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML+180+188-1.0%
TotalOver 58.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&M
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 51.5
should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Texas A&M →
Market
Texas A&M by 14
The Four
SP+
Texas A&M by 11.5
FPI
Texas A&M by 15
Sagarin
Texas A&M by 16.5
Massey
Texas A&M by 12
Nasty Number
Texas A&M by 140.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas A&M by 14opened Texas A&M by 14now Texas A&M by 14SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.56 pts over the market
Massey
553.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.054% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
55.33.8 pts over the market
Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.3opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Kalshi-14.551.5 -116 52¢—+456 17¢
Pinnacle-14 -11051.5 -110-649+441
All 21 books
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Kalshi-14.551.5 -116 52¢—+456 17¢
Bally Bet-14 -11251.5 -113-625+450
BetAnything-14.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM-14 -11051.5 -110-625+475
BetOnline.ag-14 -11051.5 -110-630+464
betPARX-14 -11251.5 -113-625+450
BetRivers-14 -11351.5 -114-670+440
BetUS-14 -11051.5 -110-630+465
Bovada-14 -11051.5 -110-650+450
Caesars-14 -11251.5 -110-675+475
Courtside-14 -11051.5 -108-600+471
DraftKings-14 -11251.5 -110-625+455
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 56¢ -138 all-in51.5 54¢ -127 all-in88¢ -900 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-14 -11051.5 -110-650+475
FanDuel-14.5 -10251.5 -110-670+470
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -12051.5 -110-650+450
LowVig.ag-14 -10651.5 -108-630+464
MyBookie.ag-14 -11051.5 -110-699+470
Pinnacle-14 -11051.5 -110-649+441
ReBet-14.5 -11451.5 -116-752+440
theScore Bet-14.5 +10051.5 -110-800+500

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): DraftKings +14 at -108 (-1.5%) · Caesars +14 at -109 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +14 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -120 (-2.1%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 54¢ (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +464 at FanDuel
We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or FanDuel +475 (0.1%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +456 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 19¢ on the app (+376 all-in) (-3.6%).
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 52¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas).

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -14.5, only $8 available; Under 51.5, only $61 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $241 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas A&M by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-11.5-393
FPI-15.0-547
Sagarin-16.5-618
Massey-12.0-405
Market (19 books)-14.0-577
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.555.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +14.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+464+473priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at Rice
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 54.5
should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UTSA by 11, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Rice →
Market
UTSA by 11
The Four
SP+
UTSA by 12
FPI
UTSA by 11.5
Sagarin
UTSA by 11
Massey
UTSA by 13.5
Nasty Number
UTSA by 110.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTSA by 11opened UTSA by 10now UTSA by 10.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 10 to UTSA by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.95.3 pts over the market
Massey
58.53.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.067% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.23.6 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.2opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢——-458 81¢
Pinnacle+10.5 -10154.5 -115+342-467
All 20 books
Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢——-458 81¢
Bally Bet+11.5 -11354.5 -109+360-500
BetAnything+11 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM+11.5 -10555.5 -102+350-450
BetOnline.ag+11 -10555 -115+334-425
betPARX+11.5 -11354.5 -109+360-500
BetRivers+11 -10954.5 -109+360-500
BetUS+11 -10555 -115+333-425
Bovada+11 -11055 -110+345-470
Courtside+11.5 -11054.5 -113+350-426
DraftKings+11.5 -11254.5 -115+340-440
DraftKings Predictions+11.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 55¢ -132 all-in24¢ +285 all-in83¢ -566 all-in
Fanatics+11.5 -11055 -110+340-450
FanDuel+11.5 -10555.5 -108+385-520
Hard Rock Bet+11.5 -11054.5 -110+350-500
LowVig.ag+11 -10155 -114+334-425
MyBookie.ag+11 -11054.5 -110+340-461
Pinnacle+10.5 -10154.5 -115+342-467
ReBet+11.5 -11154.5 -116+330-526
theScore Bet+12.5 -11055.5 -105+400-600

Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA -11.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UTSA): DraftKings -11.5 at -108 (-2.4%) · Fanatics -11.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -11.5 at -112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -11.5 at -115 (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -11.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UTSA to win · -467
We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UTSA to win): DraftKings -440 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -450 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 81¢ (-2.6%) · FanDuel -520 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 58. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.0%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -115 (0.5%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $96 available; Under 55.5, only $79 available; Rice Owls ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 1140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+404
FPI+11.5+398
Sagarin+11.0+382
Massey+13.5+452
Market (18 books)+11.0+421
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.558.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners -11.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML-467-388priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'i
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pm
Hawai'i to win
our data says 60 in 100 · -137
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San José State than the bookmore Hawai'i →
Market
Hawai'i by 3TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side
FPI
Hawai'i by 4.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side
Massey
Hawai'i by 2.50.6 pts against us
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 3.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Hawai'i. Massey at Hawai'i by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 3.5opened Hawai'i by 3.5now Hawai'i by 2.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.94.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.8opened 51.5now 51.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLSan José State ML
TOM-3 -11551.5 -110-155+130
Pinnacle-3 -10252 -102-146+124
All 21 books
Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLSan José State ML
TOM-3 -11551.5 -110-155+130
Bally Bet-3 -10751.5 -110-150+120
BetAnything-3 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-3 -10851.5 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-3 -11551.5 -110-155+135
betPARX-3 -10751.5 -110-150+120
BetRivers-3 -10751.5 -110-150+120
BetUS-3 -11551.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -10551.5 -110-145+125
Caesars-3 -10851.5 -110-143+121
Courtside-3 -10651.5 -106-139+122
DraftKings-3 -10851.5 -108-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in51.5 53¢ -122 all-in60¢ -163 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-3 -11051.5 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -11551.5 -110-137+114
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12051.5 -110-150+120
LowVig.ag-3 -11151.5 -108-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 -11051.5 -110-148+121
Pinnacle-3 -10252 -102-146+124
ReBet-2.5 -12551.5 -111-154+116
theScore Bet-2.5 -11051.5 -110-130+110

Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): FanDuel -2.5 at -115 (2.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -3 at -108 (0.4%) · Fanatics -3 at -110 (-0.0%) · TOM -3 at -115 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -137 at FanDuel
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): FanDuel -137 (2.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -142 (1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -145 (1.2%) · TOM -155 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -137 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -148 here against -135 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.0-187
FPI-4.5-175
Sagarin-5.0-187
Massey-2.5-120
Market (19 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.548.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-137-152+2.6%
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5-115-126+2.2%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 5.8.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus; moneyline -148 here against -135 consensus.

Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at Missouri
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Missouri +5.5
should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Missouri →
Market
Florida by 5.5
The Four
SP+
Florida by 2.5
FPI
Florida by 7.5
Sagarin
Florida by 3
Massey
Florida by 3.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 4.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 4.5opened Florida by 4.5now Florida by 5.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
54.91.7 pts under the market
Massey
57.71.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.30.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.3opened 56.5now 56.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.5 -112 51¢57.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -11256.5 -113+177-214
All 21 books
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.5 -112 51¢57.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11357 -108+165-210
BetAnything+5 -11057 -110——
BetMGM+5 -11056.5 -110+170-210
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11557 -110+180-210
betPARX+5.5 -11357 -108+165-210
BetRivers+5 -10957 -109+165-210
BetUS+5.5 -11557 -110+180-210
Bovada+5 -11057 -110+175-210
Caesars+4.5 -10756.5 -110+172-205
Courtside+4.5 -10556.5 -110+174-200
DraftKings+4.5 -10556.5 -112+170-205
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 52¢ -117 all-in37¢ +156 all-in69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics+5 -11056.5 -110+175-215
FanDuel+4.5 -11056.5 -112+168-205
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11056.5 -115+165-210
LowVig.ag+5.5 -11157 -108+180-210
MyBookie.ag+5 -11056.5 -110+169-210
Pinnacle+5.5 -11256.5 -113+177-214
ReBet+4.5 -11156.5 -116+162-220
theScore Bet+4.5 -10556.5 -115+175-210

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +5.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): Kalshi +5.5 at 51¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Caesars +4.5 at -107 (-2.0%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Missouri to win · +189 (33¢) at Kalshi
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Missouri to win): Kalshi 33¢ (1.0%) · Fanatics +175 (-0.8%) · Caesars +172 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +170 (-1.4%) · FanDuel +168 (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 53¢ (-2.3%) · Fanatics or Caesars 56.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F, 37% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -5.5, only $22 available; Over 57.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+124
FPI+7.5+272
Sagarin+3.0+144
Massey+3.5+152
Market (19 books)+5.5+195
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.556.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+189+181+1.0%
SpreadMissouri Tigers +5.5-110-106-0.8%
TotalUnder 56.5-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.6.

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at Illinois
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
Illinois -10
should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt · no bet
▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore Illinois →
Market
Illinois by 10
The Four
SP+
Illinois by 177.1 pts our side
FPI
Illinois by 122.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Illinois by 12.52.7 pts our side
Massey
Illinois by 13.53.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Illinois by 110.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Illinois. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois by 11opened Illinois by 10now Illinois by 10SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61.5
The Four
SP+ pace
70.79.4 pts over the market
Massey
61.3on the market
Nasty Number
664.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 66opened 60.5now 61.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢61.5 -107 50¢-404 79¢—
Pinnacle-10 -11061.5 -106-414+311
All 20 books
Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢61.5 -107 50¢-404 79¢—
Bally Bet-10 -11260.5 -118-435+325
BetAnything-10 -11062 -110——
BetMGM-10 -11061.5 -108-400+310
BetOnline.ag-10 -11061 -115-380+303
betPARX-10 -11260.5 -118-435+325
BetRivers-10 -11260.5 -118-455+325
BetUS-10 -11062 -110-380+305
Bovada-10 -11061.5 -105-415+310
Courtside-10 -10861.5 -106-364+303
DraftKings-10 -11061.5 -108-375+295
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 56¢ -138 all-in60.5 55¢ -132 all-in81¢ -488 all-in26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics-10 -11061.5 -105-400+310
FanDuel-9.5 -12261.5 -110-430+330
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -12060.5 -120-425+325
LowVig.ag-10 -10661 -114-380+303
MyBookie.ag-10 -11061.5 -110-380+290
Pinnacle-10 -11061.5 -106-414+311
ReBet-10.5 -10961.5 -114-400+270
theScore Bet-10.5 -11061.5 -110-450+340

Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois -10.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -10 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi -10.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -122 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Illinois to win · -375 at DraftKings
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings -375 (0.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi -400 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -430 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 61.5 · -110
SP+ projects 71 and Massey projects 61. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 61.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 61.5 at -107 (1.4%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.3%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F, 37% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Illinois, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +10.5, only $2 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-657
FPI-12.0-409
Sagarin-12.5-423
Massey-13.5-437
Market (18 books)-10.0-370
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.566.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -10.0-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-375-377+0.1%
TotalOver 61.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.9.

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pm
Colorado State +6.5
should be Colorado State +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
Oregon State by 6
The Four
SP+
Oregon State by 6.5on the market
FPI
Oregon State by 4.51.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Oregon State by 15.3 pts our side
Massey
Oregon State by 6on the market
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 60.2 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 6opened Oregon State by 5.5now Oregon State by 6.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61
The Four
SP+ pace
58.12.9 pts under the market
Massey
59.51.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
58.82.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 61now 61SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +6.5 at -104 (0.5%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Fanatics +6.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +6 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Colorado State to win · +202 at FanDuel
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +202 (0.2%) · BetMGM +195 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +190 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (-4.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 61.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 61.5 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 61.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+209
FPI+4.5+176
Sagarin+1.0+104
Massey+6.0+200
Market (18 books)+6.0+218
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.058.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +6.5-104-106+0.5%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+202+200+0.2%
TotalUnder 61.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 3.5.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Iowa State -2.5
should be Iowa State -3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +0.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more West Virginia than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Iowa State by 3.5
The Four
SP+
Iowa State by 40.8 pts our side
FPI
Iowa State by 3.50.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Iowa State by 4.51 pts our side
Massey
Iowa State by 128.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Iowa State by 3.50.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa State by 3.5opened West Virginia by 1.5now Iowa State by 2.5SunMon

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
52.20.6 pts under the market
Massey
53.60.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 53now 53SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel -2.5 at -122 (2.3%) · BetMGM -3 at -112 (1.2%) · Caesars -3 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings -3 at -120 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (-0.9%).
Not Nasty
Iowa State to win · -150 at FanDuel
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel -150 (2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -160 (0.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars -162 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 63¢ on the app (-185 all-in) (-3.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Caesars 52.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -118 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onIowa State by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-3.5-164
Sagarin-4.5-176
Massey-12.0-407
Market (19 books)-3.5-150
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.052.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa State Cyclones -2.5-122-134+2.3%
MoneylineIowa State Cyclones ML-150-163+2.0%
TotalOver 53.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USC
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Washington +9.5
should be Washington +9 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Washington than the bookmore USC →
Market
USC by 9.5
The Four
SP+
USC by 81.4 pts our side
FPI
USC by 12.53.3 pts against us
Sagarin
USC by 10.51 pts against us
Massey
USC by 63.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
USC by 90.1 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Washington. FPI at USC by 12.5 and Sagarin at USC by 10.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 9opened USC by 7.5now USC by 9.5SunMon

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Washington is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.62 pts over the market
Massey
56.21.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.90.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 56.5now 57.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢57.5 -112 51¢—+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9 -11257.5 -107-379+289
All 21 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢57.5 -112 51¢—+280 25¢
Bally Bet-10 -11058 -108-420+300
BetAnything-10 -11058 -110——
BetMGM-9.5 -11257.5 -115-375+300
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11057.5 -115-360+289
betPARX-10 -11058 -108-420+300
BetRivers-10 -11258 -109-420+300
BetUS-9.5 -11057.5 -115-360+290
Bovada-9.5 -11057.5 -110-380+290
Caesars-9.5 -11257.5 -112-360+285
Courtside-9.5 -11557.5 -113-350+293
DraftKings-9.5 -11557.5 -115-360+285
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 54¢ -127 all-in80¢ -456 all-in27¢ +245 all-in
Fanatics-9.5 -11058 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -12258.5 -106-410+315
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -12057.5 -115-425+300
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10657.5 -114-360+289
MyBookie.ag-10 -11058 -110-380+285
Pinnacle-9 -11257.5 -107-379+289
ReBet-9.5 -12557.5 -119-400+270
theScore Bet-9.5 -11558.5 -105-400+300

Marked: best for Washington, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington +9.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington): FanDuel +9.5 at +100 (0.2%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +9.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · Caesars +9.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · Fanatics +9.5 at -110 (-2.1%).
Not Nasty
Washington to win · +315 at FanDuel
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Washington to win): FanDuel +315 (0.3%) · BetMGM +300 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +290 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars +285 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 25¢ (-1.9%).
Off the band
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi or Caesars 57.5 at -112 (-2.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 57.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -106 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Washington, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $25 available; USC Trojans ML, only $187 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.0-286
FPI-12.5-421
Sagarin-10.5-352
Massey-6.0-200
Market (19 books)-9.5-345
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.557.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington Huskies +9.5+100-101+0.2%
MoneylineWashington Huskies ML+315+310priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Iowa +13.5
should be Iowa +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Ohio State by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 121.8 pts our side
FPI
Ohio State by 130.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Ohio State by 5.57.9 pts our side
Massey
Ohio State by 94.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 130.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 13opened Ohio State by 14.5now Ohio State by 13.5SunMon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.61.1 pts under the market
Massey
44.11.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.41.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.4opened 46now 46SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa +13.5 · -102 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): BetMGM +13.5 at -102 (0.1%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (-0.4%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +14 at -115 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · +440 at Fanatics
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa to win): FanDuel +460 (0.9%) · BetMGM or Caesars +450 (0.6%) · Fanatics +440 (0.3%) · DraftKings +425 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 45.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Iowa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+402
FPI+13.0+426
Sagarin+5.5+197
Massey+9.0+310
Market (19 books)+13.5+531
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.544.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +13.5-102-102+0.1%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML+440+432priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 1.7.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
Kentucky +2.5
should be Kentucky +2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 2.5TOM, -120
The Four
SP+
South Carolina by 1.50.8 pts our side
FPI
South Carolina by 2.5on the market
Sagarin
South Carolina by 41.5 pts against us
Massey
South Carolina by 1.51 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 2.50 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Kentucky. Sagarin at South Carolina by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 2.5opened South Carolina by 3now South Carolina by 2.5SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.53 pts over the market
Massey
52.51 pts under the market
Weather
-1.052% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.5opened 54now 53.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-2.5 -12053.5 -110-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢53.5 -112 51¢-148 58¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11653.5 -106-141+120
All 22 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-2.5 -12053.5 -110-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢53.5 -112 51¢-148 58¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11553.5 -110-143+118
BetAnything-3 -11053 -110——
BetMGM-3 -10253.5 -110-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12053.5 -110-140+120
betPARX-2.5 -11553.5 -110-143+118
BetRivers-2.5 -11753.5 -112-148+118
BetUS-3 -11053.5 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -12053.5 -105-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11753.5 -112-143+121
Courtside-2.5 -11853.5 -110-139+122
DraftKings-2.5 -11853.5 -112-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11553.5 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -11554.5 -105-142+118
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11553.5 -110-145+120
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11653.5 -108-140+120
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11053.5 -110-146+119
Pinnacle-2.5 -11653.5 -106-141+120
ReBet-2.5 -12553.5 -114-152+114
theScore Bet-2.5 -11554.5 -105-140+120

Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +2.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kentucky): TOM +2.5 at +100 (0.1%) · BetMGM +3 at -118 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (-0.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -104 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Kentucky to win · +120 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Kentucky to win): Kalshi 43¢ (0.7%) · Caesars +121 (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +120 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +118 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 53.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars 53.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -105 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.5 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +2.5, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-113
FPI-2.5-125
Sagarin-4.0-170
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-2.5-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.553.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +2.5+100-100+0.1%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+120+121-0.1%
TotalOver 53.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Alabama -6
should be Alabama -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Alabama by 6
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 5.5
FPI
Alabama by 8
Sagarin
Alabama by 3.5
Massey
Alabama by 9.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 6.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 6.5opened Alabama by 6now Alabama by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60
The Four
SP+ pace
644.1 pts over the market
Massey
62.32.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
63.23.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 63.2opened 59.5now 59.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.560.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+6 -11159.5 -115+184-224
All 20 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.560.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+6 -11360.5 -109+175-220
BetAnything+6 -11061 -110——
BetMGM+6 -11060.5 -110+185-225
BetOnline.ag+6 -11360 -115+189-225
betPARX+6 -11360.5 -109+175-220
BetRivers+6 -11460.5 -110+175-220
BetUS+6 -11060 -115+190-225
Bovada+6 -11560 -110+185-225
Courtside+5.5 -11460.5 -106+189-220
DraftKings+6 -11260.5 -108+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 54¢ -127 all-in60.5 53¢ -122 all-in36¢ +163 all-in71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11060.5 -110+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10560.5 -114+180-220
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10560.5 -110+175-220
LowVig.ag+6 -10960 -114+189-225
MyBookie.ag+6 -11060.5 -110+183-230
Pinnacle+6 -11159.5 -115+184-224
ReBet+5.5 -10960.5 -116+174-240
theScore Bet+6.5 -12060.5 -110+190-225

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -6.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings or BetMGM -6 at -108 (-1.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (-1.4%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (-1.7%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Alabama to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Alabama to win): FanDuel -220 (-1.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -225 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 68¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 60.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi or DraftKings 60.5 at -107 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 60.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -114 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 42% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5, only $194 available; Under 60.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+197
FPI+8.0+293
Sagarin+3.5+163
Massey+9.5+325
Market (18 books)+6.0+206
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.063.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -6.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-225-208-1.7%
TotalOver 60.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Under 55.5
should be 54.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.

The spread

← more Boston College than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 21
The Four
SP+
SMU by 20
FPI
SMU by 16
Sagarin
SMU by 19
Massey
SMU by 15.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 201 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 20opened SMU by 21now SMU by 21SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.34.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.52.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.94.5 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.9opened 57now 55.5SunMon

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.555.5 -112 51¢-1236 92¢+944 9¢
Pinnacle-21 -10455.5 -108-1506+800
All 20 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.555.5 -112 51¢-1236 92¢+944 9¢
Bally Bet-21 -10955.5 -107-2000+900
BetAnything-21 -11055 -110——
BetMGM-21 -10855.5 -105-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-21 -11055 -110-1700+945
betPARX-21 -10955.5 -107-2000+900
BetRivers-21 -11055.5 -108-2000+850
BetUS-21 -11055 -110-1700+950
Bovada-21 -10555.5 -110-1600+800
Courtside-21 -10655.5 -108-1509+1008
DraftKings-21 -10855.5 -110-1650+950
DraftKings Predictions-20.5 56¢ -138 all-in54.5 57¢ -144 all-in96¢ -4900 all-in11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics-21 -11055.5 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-21.5 -10455.5 -106-1600+860
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -12055.5 -105-2000+900
LowVig.ag-21 -10655 -108-1700+945
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11055.5 -110-1408+750
Pinnacle-21 -10455.5 -108-1506+800
ReBet-21.5 -10955.5 -111-1587+670
theScore Bet-20.5 -12055.5 -105-1600+800

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +21.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Boston College): FanDuel +21.5 at -118 (1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +21 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings +21 at -112 (0.6%) · Kalshi +20.5 at 49¢ (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Boston College to win · +900 at Fanatics
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Kalshi +950 (0.6%) · Fanatics +900 (0.1%) · FanDuel +860 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 55.5 at 50¢ (1.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (1.1%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (0.2%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -115 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.0-878
FPI-16.0-581
Sagarin-19.0-822
Massey-15.5-563
Market (18 books)-21.0-1320
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.550.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBoston College Eagles +21.0-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineBoston College Eagles ML+900+890priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at Kansas
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Kansas -18.5
should be Kansas -19 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Kansas →
Market
Kansas by 18.5
The Four
SP+
Kansas by 19
FPI
Kansas by 15.5
Sagarin
Kansas by 25
Massey
Kansas by 21.5
Nasty Number
Kansas by 190.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas by 19opened Kansas by 18.5now Kansas by 18.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
510.5 pts over the market
Massey
52.21.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.61.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi-18.5—-1087 91¢+841 10¢
Pinnacle-18.5 -11050.5 -107-1256+709
All 20 books
Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi-18.5—-1087 91¢+841 10¢
Bally Bet-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetAnything-19 -11050.5 -110——
BetMGM-18.5 -11050.5 -110-1200+850
BetOnline.ag-19 -11050.5 -110-1400+836
betPARX-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetRivers-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetUS-19 -11050.5 -110-1400+825
Bovada-19 -11050.5 -110-1300+725
Courtside-18.5 -11850.5 -110-1252+842
DraftKings-19.5 -10550.5 -112-1350+800
DraftKings Predictions-18.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in95¢ -3233 all-in12¢ +614 all-in
Fanatics-19 -11050.5 -110-1300+800
FanDuel-19.5 -10650.5 -110-1450+810
Hard Rock Bet-17.5 -12050.5 -120-1600+800
LowVig.ag-19 -10650.5 -108-1400+836
MyBookie.ag-19 -11050.5 -110-1205+700
Pinnacle-18.5 -11050.5 -107-1256+709
ReBet-19.5 -11650.5 -116-1408+620
theScore Bet-18.5 -12050.5 -110-1800+900

Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas -18.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Kansas): BetMGM -18.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -106 (-2.5%) · Fanatics -19 at -110 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -18.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.3%).
Blowout line
Kansas to win · -1087 (91¢) at Kalshi
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kansas to win): Kalshi 91¢ (-2.5%) · BetMGM -1200 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -1300 (-3.8%) · DraftKings -1350 (-4.1%) · FanDuel -1450 (-4.5%).
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 60°F.

Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks -18.5, only $306 available; Over 50.5, only $300 available; Under 50.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onKansas by 1940% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-836
FPI-15.5-567
Sagarin-25.0-1761
Massey-21.5-1146
Market (18 books)-18.5-1126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas Jayhawks -18.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineKansas Jayhawks ML-1087-813priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at Minnesota
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Michigan -6
should be Michigan -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Michigan than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Michigan by 6
The Four
SP+
Michigan by 5.5
FPI
Michigan by 9.5
Sagarin
Michigan by 2
Massey
Michigan by 7.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 60.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 6opened Michigan by 6now Michigan by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
SP+ pace
38.94.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.32.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.11.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.1opened 43now 43SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+5.5 -103 49¢43.5—-218 67¢
Pinnacle+6 -11643 -110+180-217
All 21 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+5.5 -103 49¢43.5—-218 67¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11243.5 -112+175-220
BetAnything+5.5 -11044 -110——
BetMGM+5 -10543.5 -108+180-220
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11043 -110+183-215
betPARX+5.5 -11243.5 -112+175-220
BetRivers+5.5 -11343.5 -113+175-220
BetUS+5.5 -11043 -110+183-215
Bovada+5.5 -11043 -110+180-220
Caesars+5.5 -11043.5 -112+184-225
Courtside+5.5 -11043.5 -106+189-220
DraftKings+5.5 -11043.5 -108+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in42.5 53¢ -122 all-in35¢ +171 all-in68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics+5.5 -11043 -110+180-220
FanDuel+5.5 -11243.5 -110+172-210
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11043.5 -110+175-220
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10643 -108+183-215
MyBookie.ag+6 -11043.5 -110+198-250
Pinnacle+6 -11643 -110+180-217
ReBet+5.5 -10943.5 -114+189-260
theScore Bet+5.5 -11543.5 -110+170-200

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -5.0 · -112 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): BetMGM -5 at -112 (-0.7%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars -5.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 52¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -210 at FanDuel
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Michigan to win): FanDuel -210 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 67¢ (-1.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -220 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars -225 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 68¢ on the app (-234 all-in) (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 52¢ (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $49 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $493 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+195
FPI+9.5+310
Sagarin+2.0+117
Massey+7.5+275
Market (19 books)+6.0+202
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -5.0-112-109-0.7%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-210-202-0.8%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Notre Dame -21.5
should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →
Market
Notre Dame by 21.5
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 23
FPI
Notre Dame by 20.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 16.5
Massey
Notre Dame by 22
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 21.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 21.5opened Notre Dame by 21.5now Notre Dame by 21.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
47.10.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.11.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.1opened 47.5now 47.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—48.5 +109 46¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Pinnacle+21.5 -11747.5 -107+848-1644
All 20 books
North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—48.5 +109 46¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Bally Bet+21.5 -11348 -108+1200—
BetAnything+21 -11047.5 -110——
BetMGM+21 -10547.5 -105+1100-2000
BetOnline.ag+21 -10547.5 -105——
betPARX+21.5 -11348 -108+1200—
BetRivers+21.5 -11448 -109+1150—
BetUS+21 -11047.5 -110+1000-1800
Bovada+21 -11047.5 -110+850-1800
Courtside+21 -10647.5 -106+1064-1635
DraftKings+21 -10847.5 -108+1000-1800
DraftKings Predictions+20.5 52¢ -117 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in10¢ +733 all-in97¢ -9897 all-in
Fanatics+21.5 -11547.5 -110+1050-1800
FanDuel+21.5 -12047.5 -106+1100-2500
Hard Rock Bet+21.5 -11047.5 -115+1200-3000
LowVig.ag+21 -10147.5 -103——
MyBookie.ag+21.5 -11047.5 -110+900-1887
Pinnacle+21.5 -11747.5 -107+848-1644
ReBet+21.5 -11447.5 -114+780-2273
theScore Bet+20.5 +10047.5 -105+1000-2000

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Carolina +21.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (North Carolina): Fanatics +21.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · BetMGM +21 at -105 (-2.6%) · DraftKings +21 at -108 (-3.3%) · FanDuel +21.5 at -120 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-7.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
North Carolina to win · +1242 (7¢) at Kalshi
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (North Carolina to win): Kalshi 7¢ (0.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +1100 (-0.1%) · Fanatics +1050 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +1000 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 10¢ on the app (+733 all-in) (-3.7%).
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 55¢ (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 21.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1319
FPI+20.5+921
Sagarin+16.5+609
Massey+22.0+1202
Market (18 books)+21.5+1541
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.546.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +21.5-110-104-1.4%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+1242+1111priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.0.

The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake Forest
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Wake Forest -13
should be Wake Forest -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Wake Forest by 13
The Four
SP+
Wake Forest by 14.5
FPI
Wake Forest by 14
Sagarin
Wake Forest by 13.5
Massey
Wake Forest by 10.5
Nasty Number
Wake Forest by 13.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wake Forest by 13.5opened Wake Forest by 13now Wake Forest by 13SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
540.5 pts over the market
Massey
55.62.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.8opened 54.5now 53.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-13.553.5 -112 51¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-13 -10853.5 -108-546+387
All 20 books
Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-13.553.5 -112 51¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet-13 -11253.5 -110-625+440
BetAnything-13 -11053.5 -110——
BetMGM-13 -10853.5 -108-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11053.5 -110-515+393
betPARX-13 -11253.5 -110-625+440
BetRivers-13 -11353.5 -112-625+430
BetUS-13 -11053.5 -110-515+400
Bovada-13 -11053.5 -110-550+390
Courtside-12.5 -11953.5 -108-501+402
DraftKings-13.5 -10553.5 -110-520+390
DraftKings Predictions-12.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in86¢ -733 all-in21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics-13 -11053.5 -110-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11553.5 -110-610+440
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11553.5 -110-650+450
LowVig.ag-13 -10653.5 -108-515+393
MyBookie.ag-13 -11053.5 -110-549+400
Pinnacle-13 -10853.5 -108-546+387
ReBet-13.5 -11453.5 -116-599+370
theScore Bet-12.5 -11553.5 -110-700+450

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings -13.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · BetMGM -13 at -108 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -13 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Wake Forest to win · -549
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings, Kalshi, Fanatics or BetMGM -520 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -610 (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-6.6%).
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest).

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWake Forest by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.5-509
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-13.5-440
Massey-10.5-369
Market (18 books)-13.0-495
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.554.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML-549-436priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at Georgia
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45am
Over 50.5
should be 52.2 · getting 1.7 pts · was 57.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.5.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 24.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 25
FPI
Georgia by 25
Sagarin
Georgia by 19
Massey
Georgia by 19.5
Nasty Number
Georgia by 24.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 24.5opened Georgia by 24.5now Georgia by 24.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.62.1 pts over the market
Massey
56.56 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.54 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.5opened 51now 50.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24.5 -10550.5 -110——
Kalshi—51.5 +101 48¢-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
Pinnacle-24 +10051.5 +101-2612+1135
All 21 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24.5 -10550.5 -110——
Kalshi—51.5 +101 48¢-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
Bally Bet-24 -10751 -109—+1600
BetAnything-24.5 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-24 -11050.5 -115-2500+1350
BetOnline.ag-24.5 -10550.5 -110-3000+1256
betPARX-24 -10751 -109—+1600
BetRivers-24 -10951 -110—+1500
BetUS-24.5 -10551 -110-3000+1300
Bovada-23.5 -11550.5 -115-2800+1100
Courtside-24.5 -10650.5 -110-2433+1405
DraftKings-24.5 -10850.5 -112-2800+1300
DraftKings Predictions-24.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 50¢ -108 all-in—9¢ +809 all-in
Fanatics-24 -11051 -110-2500+1300
FanDuel-23.5 -11851.5 -104—+1280
Hard Rock Bet-23.5 -11550.5 -115—+1600
LowVig.ag-24.5 -10150.5 -108-3000+1256
MyBookie.ag-24.5 -11051 -110—+1161
Pinnacle-24 +10051.5 +101-2612+1135
ReBet-24.5 -11150.5 -119-3030+870
theScore Bet-24.5 +10050.5 -110—+1800

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +24.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings +24.5 at -112 (-2.2%) · TOM +24.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · BetMGM +24 at -108 (-3.2%) · Fanatics +24 at -110 (-3.6%) · FanDuel +23.5 at -104 (-4.0%).
Blowout line
Vanderbilt to win · +1775 (5¢) at Kalshi
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Kalshi 5¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM +1350 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel +1300 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 9¢ on the app (+809 all-in) (-5.2%).
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 51.5 at 48¢ (1.9%) · TOM 50.5 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (1.4%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -104 (0.7%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -115 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 44% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Georgia).

TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.1 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 24.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-1772
FPI-25.0-1786
Sagarin-19.0-823
Massey-19.5-844
Market (18 books)-24.5-2420
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.554.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores +24.5-115-103-2.9%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML+1775+1632priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.3.

TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at Buffalo
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pm
Western Michigan -13.5
should be Western Michigan -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Buffalo →
Market
Western Michigan by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Western Michigan by 8
FPI
Western Michigan by 13.5
Sagarin
Western Michigan by 13.5
Massey
Western Michigan by 11
Nasty Number
Western Michigan by 130.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Michigan by 13opened Western Michigan by 14now Western Michigan by 13.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
38.88.1 pts under the market
Massey
49.52.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.22.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.2opened 48now 47SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi———-609 85¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -11047 -107+415-598
All 20 books
Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi———-609 85¢
Bally Bet+14 -11547.5 -117+510-770
BetAnything+13.5 -11046.5 -110——
BetMGM+14 -11246.5 -110+450-600
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -10947 -110+446-600
betPARX+14 -11547.5 -117+510-770
BetRivers+14 -11547.5 -117+510-835
BetUS+13.5 -11047 -110+450-600
Bovada+13.5 -11047 -110+425-600
Courtside+13.5 -10646.5 -113+455-576
DraftKings+13.5 -10846.5 -115+440-600
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in20¢ +355 all-in87¢ -809 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -11047 -110+440-600
FanDuel+13.5 -10246.5 -112+480-690
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -10547.5 -115+500-750
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10547 -108+446-600
MyBookie.ag+14 -11047 -110+460-676
Pinnacle+13.5 -11047 -107+415-598
ReBet+14.5 -12546.5 -119+430-752
theScore Bet+13.5 +10047.5 -105+475-750

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +13.5 · -102 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buffalo): FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +14 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +13.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Buffalo to win · +450 at BetMGM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buffalo to win): FanDuel +480 (1.4%) · BetMGM +450 (0.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +440 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-3.3%).
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 47 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls +13.5, only $38 available; Western Michigan Broncos -13.5, only $52 available; Over 46.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Michigan by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.0+284
FPI+13.5+452
Sagarin+13.5+441
Massey+11.0+387
Market (18 books)+13.5+556
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.044.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +13.5-102-102-0.1%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+450+435priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pm
Toledo -19
should be Toledo -20 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.

The spread

← more Toledo than the bookmore Ball State →
Market
Toledo by 19TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Toledo by 23
FPI
Toledo by 22
Sagarin
Toledo by 16.5
Massey
Toledo by 19
Nasty Number
Toledo by 201.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 20opened Toledo by 19now Toledo by 19SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.52 pts under the market
Massey
54.53 pts over the market
Nasty Number
520.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19 -10551.5 -115——
Pinnacle+18.5 -10551.5 -107+711-1263
All 21 books
Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19 -10551.5 -115——
Bally Bet+20 -11451.5 -115+900-2000
BetAnything+19.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM+19.5 -11051.5 -115+825-1200
BetOnline.ag+19 -10551.5 -115+795-1300
betPARX+20 -11451.5 -115+900-2000
BetRivers+19.5 -10851.5 -115+900-2000
BetUS+19.5 -11052 -110+780-1300
Bovada+19 -11051.5 -110+725-1300
Caesars+19.5 -10951.5 -110+800-1450
Courtside+19.5 -10651.5 -108+842-1252
DraftKings+19.5 -10851.5 -110+800-1350
DraftKings Predictions+19.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 53¢ -122 all-in12¢ +614 all-in95¢ -3233 all-in
Fanatics+19.5 -11051.5 -110+800-1300
FanDuel+19.5 -11052.5 -105+800-1400
Hard Rock Bet+19.5 -11051.5 -115+900-2000
LowVig.ag+19 -10151.5 -114+795-1300
MyBookie.ag+19.5 -11051.5 -110+756-1384
Pinnacle+18.5 -10551.5 -107+711-1263
ReBet+20.5 -11951.5 -116+630-1408
theScore Bet+19.5 -11051.5 -120+800-1600

Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -19.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): BetMGM -19.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars -19.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · TOM -19 at -115 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -19.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Toledo to win · -1384 at DraftKings
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): BetMGM -1200 (-2.2%) · Fanatics -1300 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -1350 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -1400 (-3.2%) · Caesars -1450 (-3.5%).
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars 51.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -115 (-2.8%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 2040% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1344
FPI+22.0+1212
Sagarin+16.5+596
Massey+19.0+827
Market (19 books)+19.0+1141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadToledo Rockets -19.0-115-109-1.4%
MoneylineToledo Rockets ML-1384-908priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-115-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central Michigan
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Central Michigan -7
should be Central Michigan -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 7
The Four
SP+
Central Michigan by 6.5
FPI
Central Michigan by 6
Sagarin
Central Michigan by 8
Massey
Central Michigan by 6.5
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 6.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Central Michigan by 6.5opened Central Michigan by 6now Central Michigan by 7SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Central Michigan by 6 to Central Michigan by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
41.25.9 pts under the market
Massey
46.50.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.93.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.9opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-6.547.5 -107 50¢-250 70¢—
Pinnacle-7 -10147 -110-262+211
All 20 books
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-6.547.5 -107 50¢-250 70¢—
Bally Bet-6.5 -10947.5 -112-240+188
BetAnything-6.5 -11047 -110——
BetMGM-6.5 -11047.5 -105-235+200
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11047 -105-235+195
betPARX-6.5 -10947.5 -112-240+188
BetRivers-6.5 -10947.5 -112-240+188
BetUS-6.5 -11047 -105-235+200
Bovada-7 +10047 -110-260+215
Courtside-6.5 -11247.5 -106-232+199
DraftKings-6.5 -11246.5 -118-238+195
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in72¢ -284 all-in35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11547 -110-245+200
FanDuel-6.5 -11047.5 -114-245+198
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11047.5 -110-240+190
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10647 -103-235+195
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11047 -110-265+208
Pinnacle-7 -10147 -110-262+211
ReBet-6.5 -11647.5 -109-275+198
theScore Bet-6.5 -11048.5 -105-240+200

Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +7.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Akron): Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (-2.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (-3.4%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -110 (-3.9%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 51¢ (-4.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-7.4%).
Not Nasty
Akron to win · +198 at FanDuel
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. Where, best first (Akron to win): Fanatics or BetMGM +200 (-2.7%) · FanDuel +198 (-2.9%) · DraftKings +195 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 35¢ on the app (+171 all-in) (-6.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (1.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan).

Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5, only $61 available; Under 47.5, only $26 available; Akron Zips ML, only $499 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-219
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-8.0-294
Massey-6.5-225
Market (18 books)-7.0-232
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +7.0-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+198+227-2.9%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Tennessee -7
should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 7
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 8.5
FPI
Tennessee by 7.5
Sagarin
Tennessee by 8
Massey
Tennessee by 9
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 7.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 7.5opened Tennessee by 7now Tennessee by 7SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.15.2 pts under the market
Massey
54.2on the market
Nasty Number
51.72.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.7opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi-7.5 -103 49¢54.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-7 -11054.5 -102-288+230
All 20 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi-7.5 -103 49¢54.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-7 -11454.5 -113-286+225
BetAnything-7.5 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM-7.5 -10553.5 -112-295+240
BetOnline.ag-7 -11554 -110-285+234
betPARX-7 -11454.5 -113-286+225
BetRivers-7 -11554.5 -114-286+220
BetUS-7 -11554 -110-285+238
Bovada-7 -11054 -110-285+235
Courtside-7 -11353.5 -113-278+236
DraftKings-7 -11553.5 -115-285+230
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 51¢ -113 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in76¢ -355 all-in31¢ +203 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11554 -110-285+230
FanDuel-7.5 -10653.5 -112-315+250
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 +10054.5 -110-275+225
LowVig.ag-7 -11154 -108-285+234
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11054.5 -110-300+236
Pinnacle-7 -11054.5 -102-288+230
ReBet-7.5 -11154.5 -111-319+224
theScore Bet-7.5 -10553.5 -115-300+250

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -7.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings or Fanatics -7 at -115 (-1.2%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 49¢ (-1.8%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -105 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -106 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
Tennessee to win · -286 at DraftKings
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): DraftKings or Fanatics -285 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 73¢ (-1.7%) · BetMGM -295 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -315 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 49% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-302
FPI-7.5-267
Sagarin-8.0-289
Massey-9.0-306
Market (18 books)-7.0-265
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Volunteers -7.0-110-110-0.1%
MoneylineTennessee Volunteers ML-286-265-1.5%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.7.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at Charlotte
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 54
should be 55.5 · getting 1.5 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Memphis by 20
The Four
SP+
Memphis by 27.5
FPI
Memphis by 16.5
Sagarin
Memphis by 15.5
Massey
Memphis by 18.5
Nasty Number
Memphis by 19.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Memphis by 19.5opened Memphis by 20now Memphis by 20SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
60.46.4 pts over the market
Massey
57.43.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.94.9 pts over the market
Over 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.9opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi+20.5———
Pinnacle+20 -10554 -109+750-1366
All 20 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi+20.5———
Bally Bet+20.5 -11354.5 -108+900-2000
BetAnything+20.5 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM+20 -10853.5 -118+900-1400
BetOnline.ag+20 -11054 -110+874-1500
betPARX+20.5 -11354.5 -108+900-2000
BetRivers+20.5 -11354.5 -108+900-2000
BetUS+20 -11054 -110+850-1500
Bovada+20 -10554 -110+750-1400
Courtside+20.5 -11054.5 -103+897-1339
DraftKings+20.5 -11254.5 -105+850-1450
DraftKings Predictions+19.5 53¢ -122 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in12¢ +614 all-in95¢ -3233 all-in
Fanatics+20.5 -11054 -110+850-1400
FanDuel+20.5 -11253.5 -110+890-1700
Hard Rock Bet+20.5 -11053.5 -120+900-2000
LowVig.ag+20 -10654 -108+874-1500
MyBookie.ag+20.5 -11054 -110+740-1299
Pinnacle+20 -10554 -109+750-1366
ReBet+20.5 -10953.5 -119+650-1493
theScore Bet+20.5 -11553.5 -115+800-1600

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +20.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): Fanatics +20.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · BetMGM +20 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +20.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +19.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Charlotte to win · +862 at DraftKings
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +900 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +850 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-3.4%).
Off the band
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (2.6%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -105 (1.3%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -118 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 47% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +20.5, only $75 available; Over 53.5, only $53 available; Under 53.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMemphis by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++27.5+2279
FPI+16.5+592
Sagarin+15.5+566
Massey+18.5+781
Market (18 books)+20.0+1224
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.058.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +20.0-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+862+845priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Virginia -2.5
should be Virginia -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore Florida State →
Market
Virginia by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Virginia by 6.5
FPI
Virginia by 3
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Florida State by 1
Nasty Number
Virginia by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 2.5opened Virginia by 2.5now Virginia by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.94.4 pts over the market
Massey
51.3on the market
Weather
-1.052% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
52.61.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+2.5 -11051.5 -105+120-140
Pinnacle+2.5 +10151.5 -112+121-142
All 20 books
Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+2.5 -11051.5 -105+120-140
Bally Bet+2.5 -11051.5 -109+112-137
BetAnything+2.5 -11051 -110——
BetMGM+2.5 -10251.5 -108+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11051.5 -105+120-140
betPARX+2.5 -11051.5 -109+112-137
BetRivers+2.5 -11251.5 -110+112-139
BetUS+2.5 -11051.5 -105+120-140
Bovada+3 -12051.5 -115+120-140
Courtside+2.5 -10551.5 -106+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 -10551.5 -108+124-148
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 53¢ -122 all-in47¢ +104 all-in60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 +10051.5 -110+120-145
FanDuel+2.5 -10651.5 -110+116-138
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11051.5 -110+110-135
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10651.5 -103+120-140
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11051.5 -110+116-143
Pinnacle+2.5 +10151.5 -112+121-142
ReBet+2.5 -10951.5 -111+112-149
theScore Bet+2.5 -10551.5 -110+115-135

Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): TOM -2.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-2.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.1%).
Not Nasty
Virginia to win · -140 at TOM
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Virginia to win): FanDuel -138 (-2.4%) · TOM -140 (-2.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -145 (-3.6%) · DraftKings -148 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-6.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+213
FPI+3.0+140
SagarinPK+100
Massey-1.0-107
Market (18 books)+2.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Cavaliers -2.5-110-103-1.5%
MoneylineVirginia Cavaliers ML-140-125-2.8%
TotalOver 51.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Georgia State -1
should be Georgia State -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 1, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Georgia State by 1
The Four
SP+
Old Dominion by 1
FPI
Georgia State by 5
Sagarin
Georgia State by 7
Massey
Old Dominion by 2.5
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia State by 1.5opened Old Dominion by 1now Georgia State by 1SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
52.21 pts over the market
Massey
564.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.065% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.11.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.1opened 50.5now 51.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia State -1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia State): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -114 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.2%).
Not Nasty
Georgia State to win · -120 at Fanatics
We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Georgia State to win): DraftKings -118 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -120 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -125 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 51.5 at -102 (0.8%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -118 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Georgia State).

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 1.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+107
FPI-5.0-183
Sagarin-7.0-235
Massey+2.5+127
Market (18 books)-1.0-109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.053.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers -1.0-110-105-1.3%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML-120-110-2.1%
TotalOver 51.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Under 46
should be 43.9 · getting 2 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 18.5.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore North Dakota State →
Market
North Dakota State by 18.5
The Four
SP+
North Dakota State by 22.5
FPI
North Dakota State by 18
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 17.5
Massey
North Dakota State by 14
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 18.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 18.5opened North Dakota State by 20now North Dakota State by 19SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
396.8 pts under the market
Massey
42.83.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.95 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.9opened 46now 46SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wyoming +18.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Wyoming): FanDuel +18.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +18.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +18.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.6%).
Blowout line
Wyoming to win · +825 at BetMGM
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wyoming to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +825 (0.6%) · DraftKings +800 (0.3%) · Fanatics +750 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 43. That's 5.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -106 (2.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Wyoming).

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 18.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1294
FPI-18.0-738
Sagarin-17.5-722
Massey-14.0-471
Market (18 books)-18.5-1063
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.040.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWyoming Cowboys +18.5-105-101-0.9%
MoneylineWyoming Cowboys ML+825+779priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James Madison
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pm
Over 54.5
should be 56 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore James Madison →
Market
James Madison by 18.5
The Four
SP+
James Madison by 24.5
FPI
James Madison by 21
Sagarin
James Madison by 20.5
Massey
James Madison by 18
Nasty Number
James Madison by 19.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 19.5opened James Madison by 18.5now James Madison by 18.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
58.64 pts over the market
Massey
57.32.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
583.3 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.555.5-1087 91¢—
Pinnacle-18.5 -10654.5 -114-1057+629
All 21 books
James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.555.5-1087 91¢—
Bally Bet-18.5 -10954.5 -110-1667+850
BetAnything-18.5 -11055 -110——
BetMGM-18 -11254.5 -112-1000+675
BetOnline.ag-18 -11555 -110-950+637
betPARX-18.5 -10954.5 -110-1667+850
BetRivers-18.5 -10954.5 -110-2000+850
BetUS-18.5 -11055 -110-950+630
Bovada-18.5 -11055 -110-1100+650
Caesars-18.5 -10755.5 -105-1000+650
Courtside-18.5 -10355.5 +102-943+679
DraftKings-18.5 -10555.5 +100-1000+650
DraftKings Predictions-17.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 56¢ -138 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics-18.5 -11055 -110-950+650
FanDuel-18.5 -10654.5 -112-1200+720
Hard Rock Bet-18.5 -11054.5 -110-1600+850
LowVig.ag-18 -11155 -108-950+637
MyBookie.ag-18.5 -11055 -110-1099+630
Pinnacle-18.5 -10654.5 -114-1057+629
ReBet-19.5 -11454.5 -119-1205+570
theScore Bet-18.5 -10554.5 -115-1600+800

Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -18.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings -18.5 at -105 (0.6%) · BetMGM -18 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel -18.5 at -106 (0.3%) · Caesars -18.5 at -107 (0.1%) · Fanatics -18.5 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
James Madison to win · -950 at Fanatics
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (James Madison to win): Fanatics -950 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -1000 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 91¢ (-2.0%) · FanDuel -1200 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 92¢ on the app (-1567 all-in) (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. That's 3.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 55.5 at +100 (1.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.2%) · Caesars 55.5 at -105 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: James Madison Dukes -17.5, only $245 available; Over 55.5, only $49 available; Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 19.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1708
FPI-21.0-1084
Sagarin-20.5-969
Massey-18.0-738
Market (19 books)-18.5-947
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.558.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -18.5-105-107+0.6%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-950-861priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at Nebraska
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
Nebraska -14.5
should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 14.5
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 15
FPI
Nebraska by 20
Sagarin
Nebraska by 15.5
Massey
Nebraska by 13
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 150.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 15opened Nebraska by 14.5now Nebraska by 14.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.41 pts over the market
Massey
51.50.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.5 -107 50¢52.5 -112 51¢-660 86¢+490 16¢
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
All 21 books
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.5 -107 50¢52.5 -112 51¢-660 86¢+490 16¢
Bally Bet-14.5 -11252 -112-670+460
BetAnything-16 -11052 -110——
BetMGM-15 -10852.5 -108-650+500
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -11552 -115-700+505
betPARX-14.5 -11252 -112-670+460
BetRivers-14.5 -11352 -113-670+460
BetUS-16 -11052 -110-700+500
Bovada-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+475
Caesars-14.5 -11052.5 -106-675+475
Courtside-14.5 -11052.5 -103-646+508
DraftKings-14.5 -11252.5 -105-675+490
DraftKings Predictions-14.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 56¢ -138 all-in89¢ -1011 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+500
FanDuel-14.5 -11052.5 -110-690+480
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11052.5 -105-650+450
LowVig.ag-14.5 -11152 -114-700+505
MyBookie.ag-15 -11052.5 -110-752+500
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
ReBet-16.5 -11152.5 -111-847+460
theScore Bet-14.5 -11052.5 -110-800+500

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska -14.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): Kalshi -14.5 at 50¢ (-1.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars -14.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · BetMGM -15 at -108 (-2.1%) · DraftKings -14.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.4%).
Not Nasty
Nebraska to win · -694 at FanDuel
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): BetMGM or Kalshi -650 (-2.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars -675 (-2.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -690 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 89¢ on the app (-1011 all-in) (-6.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 52.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Caesars 52.5 at -106 (-1.6%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 1540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.0-549
FPI-20.0-882
Sagarin-15.5-553
Massey-13.0-424
Market (19 books)-14.5-615
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNebraska Cornhuskers -14.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineNebraska Cornhuskers ML-694-540priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New Mexico
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
New Mexico -22.5
should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore New Mexico →
Market
New Mexico by 22.5
The Four
SP+
New Mexico by 34
FPI
New Mexico by 27.5
Sagarin
New Mexico by 25
Massey
New Mexico by 19.5
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 241.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 24opened New Mexico by 22.5now New Mexico by 22.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
48.10.3 pts under the market
Massey
55.16.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.63.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi———+1242 7¢
Pinnacle-22.5 -10948.5 -104-1985+957
All 20 books
New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi———+1242 7¢
Bally Bet-23 -10948.5 -115—+1200
BetAnything-22.5 -11048.5 -110——
BetMGM-22.5 -10848.5 -105-2000+1150
BetOnline.ag-22.5 -11048.5 -108——
betPARX-23 -10948.5 -115—+1200
BetRivers-23 -10948.5 -115—+1200
BetUS-22.5 -11048.5 -110-2250+1150
Bovada-22.5 -11048 -110-2000+950
Courtside-22.5 -11048.5 -108-1882+1177
DraftKings-22.5 -11248.5 -110-2100+1100
DraftKings Predictions-22.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in97¢ -9897 all-in10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics-22.5 -11048.5 -105-1800+1050
FanDuel-22.5 -11047.5 -112-2800+1160
Hard Rock Bet-22.5 -11548.5 -115-3000+1200
LowVig.ag-22.5 -10648.5 -106——
MyBookie.ag-22.5 -11048.5 -110-2000+950
Pinnacle-22.5 -10948.5 -104-1985+957
ReBet-23.5 -11148.5 -111-2500+820
theScore Bet-22.5 -11047.5 -115—+1300

Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -22.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (New Mexico): BetMGM -22.5 at -108 (1.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -22.5 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings -22.5 at -112 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -22.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
New Mexico to win · -1800 at Fanatics
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): Fanatics -1800 (-0.8%) · BetMGM -2000 (-1.3%) · DraftKings -2100 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -2800 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 97¢ on the app (-9897 all-in) (-5.1%).
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -112 (1.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 48.5 at -105 (1.1%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 73°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $83 available; Under 48.5, only $13 available; New Mexico Lobos ML, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 2430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.0—
FPI-27.5-2271
Sagarin-25.0-1842
Massey-19.5-865
Market (18 books)-22.5-1811
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos -22.5-110-116+1.3%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML-1800-1537priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
BYU -6.5
should be BYU -6.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →
Market
BYU by 6.5
The Four
SP+
BYU by 6
FPI
BYU by 6.5
Sagarin
BYU by 0.5
Massey
BYU by 1.5
Nasty Number
BYU by 6.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number BYU by 6.5opened BYU by 6now BYU by 6.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
47.41.3 pts under the market
Massey
51.42.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.40.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.4opened 49now 49SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.547.5+208 31¢—
Pinnacle+6.5 -10549 -105+204-251
All 20 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.547.5+208 31¢—
Bally Bet+6.5 -11248.5 -110+190-250
BetMGM+6.5 -10848.5 -108+200-235
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -10548.5 -105+211-255
betPARX+6.5 -11248.5 -110+190-250
BetRivers+6.5 -11348.5 -112+190-250
BetUS+6.5 -11048.5 -105+215-255
Bovada+6.5 -10548.5 -115+205-245
Caesars+6.5 -10848.5 -110+200-245
Courtside+6.5 -10848.5 -106+210-244
DraftKings+6.5 -10848.5 -108+205-250
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in34¢ +178 all-in73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics+6.5 -10548.5 -110+210-260
FanDuel+6.5 -11448.5 -104+188-230
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11048.5 -110+190-250
LowVig.ag+6.5 -10148.5 -103+211-255
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11048.5 -110+210-265
Pinnacle+6.5 -10549 -105+204-251
ReBet+6.5 -10948.5 -114+199-280
theScore Bet+6.5 -11048.5 +100+200-240

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU +6.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -114 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.7%).
Not Nasty
TCU to win · +202
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (TCU to win): Fanatics or Kalshi +210 (-0.0%) · DraftKings +205 (-0.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM +200 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +188 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 34¢ on the app (+178 all-in) (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -104 (0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · Fanatics or Caesars 48.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 40% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $21 available; Over 47.5, only $14 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.0+201
FPI+6.5+212
Sagarin+0.5+101
Massey+1.5+113
Market (18 books)+6.5+230
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTCU Horned Frogs +6.5-105-101-0.9%
MoneylineTCU Horned Frogs ML+202+210-0.9%
TotalOver 49.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 3.7.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Georgia Southern -2.5
should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Georgia Southern by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Georgia Southern by 0.5
FPI
Georgia Southern by 2
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 1
Massey
Georgia Southern by 1.5
Nasty Number
Georgia Southern by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Southern by 2opened Georgia Southern by 2.5now Georgia Southern by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
58.14.1 pts over the market
Massey
53.60.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.91.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.9opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢—+109 46¢-136 56¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
All 20 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢—+109 46¢-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2 -11453.5 -114+102-125
BetAnything+2.5 -11054 -110——
BetMGM+2.5 -10854.5 -105+110-135
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
betPARX+2 -11453.5 -114+102-125
BetRivers+2 -11553.5 -114+102-125
BetUS+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
Bovada+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
Courtside+2.5 -11054.5 -103+116-132
DraftKings+2.5 -11054.5 -105+114-135
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in48¢ -100 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -11054 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11054.5 -110+106-128
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -10553.5 -115+100-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10654 -108+115-135
MyBookie.ag+2 -11054 -110+108-132
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
ReBet+2.5 -11653.5 -119+104-137
theScore Bet+2.5 -11054.5 -110+110-130

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · +110 at Fanatics
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): DraftKings +114 (-0.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel +106 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 54 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F, 37% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles -2.5, only $47 available; Over 54.5, only $50 available; Under 54.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Southern by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-1.0-103
Massey+1.5+110
Market (18 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.055.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5-110-104-1.3%
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+110+116-1.3%
TotalOver 54.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Boise State -20
should be Boise State -20 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 20
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 19
FPI
Boise State by 20.5
Sagarin
Boise State by 19.5
Massey
Boise State by 13.5
Nasty Number
Boise State by 200.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 20opened Boise State by 20now Boise State by 20.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.32.1 pts under the market
Massey
51.3on the market
Nasty Number
50.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 50.5now 51.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Utah State +20.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Utah State): DraftKings or Caesars +19.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Fanatics +20 at -110 (-2.2%) · BetMGM +19.5 at -108 (-2.6%) · FanDuel +19.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +19.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +860 at FanDuel
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah State to win): BetMGM +950 (0.6%) · DraftKings +900 (0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +860 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-829
FPI-20.5-914
Sagarin-19.5-865
Massey-13.5-453
Market (19 books)-20.0-1231
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.550.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +20.0-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+860+885priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at Clemson
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Miami -16.5
should be Miami -16.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Miami by 16.5
The Four
SP+
Miami by 18.5
FPI
Miami by 16
Sagarin
Miami by 8
Massey
Miami by 9.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 16.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 16.5opened Miami by 17now Miami by 16.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
42.76.1 pts under the market
Massey
49.91.1 pts over the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
45.33.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.3opened 49now 49SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -112 51¢49.5 +105 47¢+573 14¢-788 88¢
Pinnacle+16.5 -10949 -102+544-862
All 19 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -112 51¢49.5 +105 47¢+573 14¢-788 88¢
Bally Bet+17 -11248.5 -110+600-910
BetAnything+16.5 -11048.5 -110——
BetMGM+16.5 -11048.5 -110+600-800
BetOnline.ag+16.5 -11049 -105+590-860
betPARX+17 -11248.5 -110+600-910
BetRivers+17 -11348.5 -112+600-1000
BetUS+16.5 -11048.5 -110+580-860
Bovada+16.5 -11048.5 -110+550-850
Courtside+16.5 -10648.5 -110+572-761
DraftKings+16.5 -10848.5 -112+550-800
Fanatics+16.5 -11048.5 -110+575-850
FanDuel+16.5 -10548.5 -110+610-950
Hard Rock Bet+16.5 -10548.5 -110+600-900
LowVig.ag+16.5 -10649 -103+590-860
MyBookie.ag+17 -11048.5 -110+538-838
Pinnacle+16.5 -10949 -102+544-862
ReBet+16.5 -10948.5 -114+520-1000
theScore Bet+16.5 -10548.5 +100+500-800

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson +16.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel +16.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · DraftKings +16.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +16.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi +16.5 at 51¢ (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Clemson to win · +585
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel +610 (0.3%) · BetMGM +600 (0.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +575 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +550 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 55¢ (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 79°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 16.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+797
FPI+16.0+581
Sagarin+8.0+284
Massey+9.5+315
Market (18 books)+16.5+753
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.045.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers +16.5-105-100-1.2%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML+585+595priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.2.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at Rutgers
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Indiana -24
should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Rutgers →
Market
Indiana by 24
The Four
SP+
Indiana by 26.5
FPI
Indiana by 26
Sagarin
Indiana by 16.5
Massey
Indiana by 22
Nasty Number
Indiana by 24.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 24.5opened Indiana by 24now Indiana by 24SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
64.68.7 pts over the market
Massey
55.7on the market
Nasty Number
60.24.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.2opened 56now 56SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—56.5 -112 51¢+1242 7¢—
Pinnacle+24 -10156 -108+1098-2473
All 21 books
Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—56.5 -112 51¢+1242 7¢—
Bally Bet+24 -10955.5 -108+1300—
BetAnything+24 -11056 -110——
BetMGM+24 -10856.5 -105+1300-2500
BetOnline.ag+24 -11056 -110——
betPARX+24 -10955.5 -108+1300—
BetRivers+24 -11055.5 -109+1300—
BetUS+24 -11056 -110+1150-2400
Bovada+24.5 -11556 -110+1000-2500
Caesars+23.5 -10256.5 -105——
Courtside+24.5 -11655.5 -119+1290-2122
DraftKings+24.5 -11856.5 -105+1200-2400
DraftKings Predictions+23.5 52¢ -117 all-in57.5 50¢ -108 all-in9¢ +809 all-in—
Fanatics+24.5 -11556 -110+1200-2200
FanDuel+24.5 -11855.5 -114+1280—
Hard Rock Bet+23.5 +10055.5 -110+1300—
LowVig.ag+24 -10656 -108——
MyBookie.ag+24 -11055.5 -110+970-2273
Pinnacle+24 -10156 -108+1098-2473
ReBet+24.5 -11155.5 -116+830-2500
theScore Bet+23.5 -10556.5 -110+1200-3000

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -24.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Indiana): BetMGM -24 at -110 (-0.3%) · Caesars -23.5 at -118 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -24.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -104 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -24.5 at -105 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Indiana to win · -2500 at DraftKings
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Fanatics -2200 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2400 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -3500 (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 97¢ on the app (— all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (1.0%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (0.6%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 64°F, 27% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Indiana).

Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $26 available; Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $221 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 24.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++26.5+2008
FPI+26.0+1954
Sagarin+16.5+594
Massey+22.0+1203
Market (19 books)+24.0+2146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.060.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndiana Hoosiers -24.0-110-109-0.3%
MoneylineIndiana Hoosiers ML-2500-1705priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sun Oct 4

14 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · 49ers, Broncos at 49ers
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
49ers -2.5
should be 49ers -4.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was -3
Sniff of Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 4.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 2.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
FPI
49ers by 8.56 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey
49ers by 52.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
49ers by 4.52 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 4.5opened 49ers by 3now 49ers by 2.5SatSunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.21.3 pts under the market
FPI
48.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
470.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 46.5now 46.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11546.5 -110-147+122
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢46.5 -107 50¢-148 58¢+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11546.5 -110-147+127
All 23 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11546.5 -110-147+122
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢46.5 -107 50¢-148 58¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
BetMGM-2.5 -11846.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11546.5 -110-147+127
betPARX-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
BetRivers-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
BetUS-2 -12046.5 -110-145+125
Caesars-2.5 -12046.5 -108-148+125
Courtside-3 -10346.5 -110-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10546.5 -112-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in45.5 56¢ -138 all-in62¢ -178 all-in44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -12046.5 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -11546.5 -106-142+120
Fliff-2.5 -12546.5 -110-160+125
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10546.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10546.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10546.5 -110-145+125
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11046.5 -107-147+127
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -12046.5 -110-155+121
Polymarket———+127
ReBet-2.5 -13346.5 -110-149+126
theScore Bet-3 +10046.5 -105-145+125

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (7.8%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (7.2%) · Caesars or Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (6.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -105 (6.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (3.4%).
A Little Nasty
49ers to win · -147 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 60. That's value. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel -142 (7.3%) · TOM, Caesars or Kalshi -147 (6.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -150 (5.9%) · DraftKings -155 (5.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (2.0%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (-1.0%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM 46.5 at -107 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 46.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $13 available; San Francisco 49ers -2.5, only $60 available; Denver Broncos +2.5, only $160 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
FPI-8.5-351
Sagarinhasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey-5.0-210
Market (19 books)-2.5-141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -2.5-115-158+7.8%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-147-194+6.4%
TotalOver 46.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Under 52
should be 50.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 50
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 52.0. Massey and FPI say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Jaguars too: market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2, but at -101 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 2.5TOM, -119
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
FPI
Jaguars by 0.53.2 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Massey
Jaguars by 13.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bengals by 20.7 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 2opened Bengals by 1.5now Bengals by 2.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Under -114
The Four
Massey
48.83.2 pts under the market
FPI
49.32.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.12.9 pts under the market
Under 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.1opened 51.5now 52SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11952 -106-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢51.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11351 -108-144+125
All 26 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11952 -106-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢51.5 -103 49¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11351 -114-143+118
BetAnything-2.5 -11551.5 -110-145+125
BetMGM-2.5 -11251 -120-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11952 -106-145+125
betPARX-2.5 -11351 -114-143+118
BetRivers-2.5 -11351 -114-143+118
BetUS-2.5 -11552 -105-145+125
Bovada-2.5 -11551 -110-145+125
Caesars-2.5 -11851.5 -107-148+124
Courtside-2.5 -11851.5 +100-145+127
DraftKings-2.5 -11851.5 -102-148+124
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 52¢ -117 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11551 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -10551.5 -110-126+108
Fliff-2.5 -11550.5 -120-135+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11551 -110-140+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11551 -110-140+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11551 -110-140+125
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11552 -103-145+125
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11051 -110-148+116
Pinnacle-2.5 -11351 -108-144+125
Polymarket-2.5 -10850.5-133+127
ReBet-2.5 -12551.5 -109-142+120
theScore Bet-2.5 -11551.5 -110-135+115

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · -101 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): TOM +2.5 at -101 (1.6%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (1.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +120 at BetMGM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings or Caesars +124 (1.8%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +120 (1.0%) · Kalshi 44¢ (0.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +108 (46¢ on the app) (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -114 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 49. That's 2.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -114 (0.7%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -114 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F, 38% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $13 available; Over 50.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
FPI+0.5+103
Sagarinhasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Massey+1.0+108
Market (22 books)-2.5-139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.049.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +2.5-101-108+1.6%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+120+115+1.0%
TotalUnder 52.0-114-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Jets +3
should be Jets +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · JetsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Jets. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPI
Jets by 0.53.6 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey
Bears by 52.1 pts against us
Nasty Number
Bears by 21.1 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Jets. Massey at Bears by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 2opened Bears by 3.5now Bears by 3SatSun

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jets is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
Massey
43.90.8 pts over the market
FPI
39.63.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.81.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.8opened 43now 43Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Kalshi-3.543.5 -107 50¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -10543 -110-152+132
All 22 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Kalshi-3.543.5 -107 50¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3 -10943 -107-162+123
BetMGM-3 -10543 -112-155+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -10543 -110-152+132
betPARX-3 -10943 -107-162+123
BetRivers-3 -10943 -107-162+123
BetUS-3 -10543 -110-155+134
Caesars-3 -10643 -110-154+130
Courtside-3 -10342.5 -122-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10543.5 -102-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in42.5 55¢ -132 all-in62¢ -178 all-in44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics-3 -11043.5 -105-155+130
FanDuel-3 -11043.5 -110-164+138
Fliff-2.5 -13043.5 -105-165+130
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10543 -110-160+135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10543 -110-160+135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10543 -110-160+135
LowVig.ag-3 +10043 -107-152+132
MyBookie.ag-3 -11043 -110-162+127
Polymarket———+138
ReBet-2.5 -13942.5 -125-156+132
theScore Bet-3 -11543.5 -110-155+135

Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Jets): FanDuel or Fanatics +3 at -110 (4.1%) · BetMGM +3 at -112 (3.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (3.5%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (3.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -115 (3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Jets to win · +138 at FanDuel
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 42. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Jets loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Jets to win): FanDuel +138 (4.3%) · Kalshi 41¢ (3.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +130 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (0.3%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 43.0 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -110 (0.1%) · BetMGM 43 at -105 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 43.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · Caesars 43 at -109 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -118 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $11 available; Under 43.5, only $12 available; Chicago Bears -2.5, only $197 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 5 more.

Chicago Bears has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPI+0.5-111
Sagarinhasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey-5.0-299
Market (19 books)-3.0-145
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.041.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNew York Jets ML+138+116+4.3%
SpreadNew York Jets +3.0-110-130+4.1%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Cowboys +2.5
should be Cowboys +1.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM
Sniff of Nasty · CowboysBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Cowboys. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
FPI
Cowboys by 13.4 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Massey
Texans by 30.3 pts against us
Nasty Number
Texans by 1.50.9 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Cowboys. Massey at Texans by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 1.5opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.31.3 pts over the market
FPI
47.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.30.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.3opened 48now 48SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11548 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢47.5 -116 52¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-2 -11847.5 -111-141+123
All 26 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11548 -110-145+120
Kalshi-2.5 -116 52¢47.5 -116 52¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11447.5 -108-139+116
BetAnything-2.5 -11548 -110-145+125
BetMGM-2.5 -11248 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11548 -110-142+122
betPARX-2.5 -11447.5 -108-139+116
BetRivers-2.5 -11447.5 -108-139+116
BetUS-2 -12048 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11548 -105-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11347.5 -115-137+116
Courtside-2.5 -11847.5 -113-139+122
DraftKings-2.5 -11847.5 -115-142+120
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 52¢ -117 all-in60¢ -163 all-in47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11547.5 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -11047.5 -114-136+116
Fliff-2.5 -11047.5 -110-135+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11048 -107-142+122
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11048 -110-144+113
Pinnacle-2 -11847.5 -111-141+123
Polymarket-2.5 -10847.5-133+127
ReBet-2.5 -12047.5 -120-138+118
theScore Bet-2.5 -11048.5 -105-135+115

Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +2.5 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (2.0%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 49¢ (1.7%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · +120 at DraftKings
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +120 (1.8%) · Kalshi 44¢ (1.5%) · Caesars or FanDuel +116 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (-2.5%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +2.5 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Cowboys, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $116 available; Over 47.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
FPI+1.0+105
Sagarinhasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Massey-3.0-140
Market (22 books)-2.5-139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML+120+112+1.8%
SpreadDallas Cowboys +2.5-105-110+1.3%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Dallas Cowboys since 09-26 12:11.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Packers to win
our data says 66 in 100 · -185
▲Sniff of Nasty · PackersBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Packers. Market says Packers by 4, the Nasty Number says Packers by 4.5. At -185 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Packers by 4TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPI
Packers by 6.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey
Packers by 1.52.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Packers by 4.50.5 pts off the market
1 of 2 systems lean Packers. Massey at Packers by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 4.5opened Packers by 3.5now Packers by 3.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5TOM
The Four
Massey
48.79.2 pts over the market
FPI
39.4on the market
Nasty Number
44.14.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.1opened 39.5now 39.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+4 -11039.5 -108+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢40.5 +101 48¢+152 38¢-191 64¢
BetOnline.ag+4 -11039.5 -108+161-185
All 24 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+4 -11039.5 -108+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢40.5 +101 48¢+152 38¢-191 64¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -10839.5 -113+155-195
BetAnything+3.5 -10539.5 -110+160-185
BetMGM+4 -11040 -105+155-190
BetOnline.ag+4 -11039.5 -108+161-185
betPARX+3.5 -10839.5 -113+155-195
BetRivers+3.5 -10839.5 -113+155-195
BetUS+4 -11040 -110+159-185
Caesars+3.5 -11339.5 -115+153-182
Courtside+4.5 -12539.5 -116+168-194
DraftKings+3.5 +10039.5 -118+164-198
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in39.5 54¢ -127 all-in39¢ +144 all-in67¢ -223 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11040 -105+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -11039.5 -114+152-180
Fliff+3.5 -11039.5 -115+145-190
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11040 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11040 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11040 -110+150-180
LowVig.ag+4 -10539.5 -105+161-185
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11040 -110+153-198
Polymarket——+163-170
ReBet+3.5 -11040.5 -110+160-190
theScore Bet+3.5 -11039.5 -115+155-185

Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -3.5 · -107 at Caesars
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Packers): Caesars -3.5 at -107 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -3.5 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM -4 at -108 (-0.6%) · TOM -4 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -120 (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
Packers to win · -185 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Packers to win): FanDuel -180 (1.7%) · Caesars -182 (1.4%) · TOM -185 (1.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi -190 (0.4%) · DraftKings -198 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 39.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 39. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): TOM 39.5 at -108 (2.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 40 at -105 (2.0%) · Kalshi 40.5 at 48¢ (1.8%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -114 (1.4%) · Caesars 39.5 at -115 (1.2%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Packers to win · -185 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Sniff of Nasty · Packers.

Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -3.5, only $12 available; Under 40.5, only $4 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.

Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPI+6.5+179
Sagarinhasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey+1.5-106
Market (20 books)+4.0+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.544.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML-185-194+1.0%
SpreadGreen Bay Packers -3.5-107-111+1.0%
TotalOver 39.5-108-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Under 48
should be 46.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 45.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Chiefs by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
FPI
Chiefs by 5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Massey
Chiefs by 3
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 4.5opened Chiefs by 4.5now Chiefs by 4.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
42.95.1 pts under the market
FPI
43.94.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.44.6 pts under the market
Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.4opened 48.5now 48SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4.5 -11048 -115+170-210
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10748 -103+183-217
All 26 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4.5 -11048 -115+170-210
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+4.5 -10847.5 -110+175-220
BetAnything+4.5 -11048 -110+175-215
BetMGM—47.5 -115+180-220
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11048 -115+180-210
betPARX+4.5 -10847.5 -110+175-220
BetRivers+5 -11347.5 -110+175-220
BetUS+4.5 -11048 -110+180-210
Bovada+4.5 -11047.5 -115+180-220
Caesars+4.5 -10847.5 -114+184-225
Courtside+4.5 -10547.5 -113+194-225
DraftKings+4.5 -10547.5 -115+190-230
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 52¢ -117 all-in37¢ +156 all-in70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-220
FanDuel+4.5 -11547.5 -105+180-215
Fliff+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-235
Hard Rock Bet+4 -10547.5 -110+185-220
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+4 -10547.5 -110+185-220
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+4 -10547.5 -110+185-220
LowVig.ag+4.5 -10748 -113+180-210
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11048 -110+174-228
Pinnacle+4.5 -10748 -103+183-217
Polymarket+4.5 -104—+186—
ReBet+4.5 -11047.5 -120+182-218
theScore Bet+4 -11047.5 -115+180-215

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -4.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): FanDuel -4.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-1.6%) · Fanatics or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars -4.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -115 (-3.3%).
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -210 (66¢) at Kalshi
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): Kalshi or TOM -208 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -215 (-2.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -220 (-2.5%) · Caesars -225 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -230 (-3.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 44. That's 4.6 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -105 (3.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (1.6%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.3%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (0.6%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).

Kalshi thin: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5, only $121 available; Over 48.5, only $24 available; Under 48.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
FPI+5.0+202
Sagarinhasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Massey+3.0+148
Market (22 books)+4.5+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.043.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -4.5-105-101-1.1%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-210-196-1.5%
TotalUnder 48.0-105-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.3 · getting 1.2 pts
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey and FPI say under by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →
Market
Seahawks by 7TOM, -117
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
FPI
Seahawks by 7.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey
Seahawks by 10
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 70 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 7opened Seahawks by 6.5now Seahawks by 7SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
Massey
40.43.1 pts under the market
FPI
40.13.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.23.3 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.2opened 44now 43.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-7 -11743.5 -105-330+255
Pinnacle-6.5 -12443 -109-320+258
All 25 books
Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-7 -11743.5 -105-330+255
Bally Bet-7 -10743.5 -107-335+260
BetAnything-7 -11043 -110-320+250
BetMGM-7 -11043.5 -110-325+270
BetOnline.ag-7 -11743.5 -105-330+267
betPARX-7 -10743.5 -107-335+260
BetRivers-7 -10743.5 -107-335+260
BetUS-7 -11543.5 -105-330+270
Bovada-7 -11043 -110-320+260
Caesars-7 -10643.5 -108-320+255
Courtside-7 -11043.5 -103-335+282
DraftKings-7 -11243.5 -105-345+275
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 56¢ -138 all-in42.5 56¢ -138 all-in78¢ -401 all-in28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics-7 -11043 -110-330+260
FanDuel-6.5 -12043.5 -106-330+265
Fliff-6.5 -12543.5 -105-345+250
Hard Rock Bet-7 -11043 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -11043 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -11043 -110-325+250
LowVig.ag-7 -11343.5 -102-330+267
MyBookie.ag-7 -11043 -110-360+260
Pinnacle-6.5 -12443 -109-320+258
Polymarket-7.5 +10842.5-300—
ReBet-7.5 -10543.5 -109-340+275
theScore Bet-7 -10543.5 -105-320+260

Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers +7.0 · -103 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chargers): TOM +7 at -103 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -108 (-1.7%) · Fanatics +7 at -110 (-2.2%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -102 (-3.0%) · Caesars +7 at -114 (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
Chargers to win · +275 at DraftKings
We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22. Where, best first (Chargers to win): DraftKings +275 (-0.7%) · BetMGM +270 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +265 (-1.4%) · Fanatics +260 (-1.8%) · Caesars or TOM +255 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 40. That's 3.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM 43.5 at -115 (0.2%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -120 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $173 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers) and 7 more.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
FPI-7.5-318
Sagarinhasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey-10.0-405
Market (22 books)-7.0-316
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.540.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Chargers +7.0-103-101-0.5%
MoneylineLos Angeles Chargers ML+275+285-0.7%
TotalUnder 43.5-115-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm
Panthers +3.5
should be Panthers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Lions by 3.5TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
FPI
Lions by 2.50.9 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Massey
Lions by 30.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Lions by 30.5 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Panthers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 3opened Lions by 3now Lions by 3.5SatSunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Panthers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
55.45.4 pts over the market
FPI
49.50.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.52.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 50.5now 50SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3.5 -11350 -113+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+3 +11350.5 -106+161-188
All 25 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3.5 -11350 -113+160-190
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11250.5 -108+160-200
BetAnything+3.5 -11050 -110+170-200
BetMGM+3.5 -10850.5 -112+160-200
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11350 -113+165-190
betPARX+3.5 -11250.5 -108+160-200
BetRivers+3.5 -11250.5 -108+160-200
BetUS+3.5 -11550 -115+163-190
Bovada+3.5 -11550.5 -110+160-185
Caesars+3.5 -11450.5 -106+164-197
Courtside+3.5 -10850.5 -110+157-181
DraftKings+3.5 -10850.5 -112+154-185
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 49¢ -104 all-in40¢ +138 all-in67¢ -223 all-in
FanDuel+3.5 -11050.5 -105+160-190
Fliff+3.5 -12050.5 -110+150-190
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11050.5 -110+160-190
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10850 -110+165-190
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11050 -110+154-200
Pinnacle+3 +11350.5 -106+161-188
Polymarket+3.5 +10050.5 -108—-186
ReBet+3.5 -10950.5 -110+158-196
theScore Bet+4 -11550.5 -105+170-200

Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.5 · -108 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (2.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (1.2%) · TOM +3.5 at -113 (0.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -114 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +160 at FanDuel
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Panthers to win): Kalshi 36¢ (2.3%) · Caesars +164 (2.0%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +160 (1.4%) · DraftKings +154 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -113 at TOM
Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -105 (0.4%) · TOM 50 at -113 (0.2%) · Caesars 50.5 at -106 (0.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions -3.5, only $0 available; Under 50.5, only $12 available; Carolina Panthers ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
FPI+2.5+129
Sagarinhasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Massey+3.0+145
Market (21 books)+3.5+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.052.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers +3.5-108-117+2.0%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+160+151+1.4%
TotalOver 50.0-113-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Eagles +2.5
should be Eagles +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Rams by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
FPI
a pick'em2.3 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey
Eagles by 13.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Rams by 20.5 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Eagles. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 2opened Rams by 2now Rams by 2.5Mon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Eagles's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
46.50.7 pts over the market
FPI
45.40.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46opened 46.5now 46.5Mon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Kalshi+2.5 -107 50¢46.5+114 45¢-143 57¢
All 18 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Kalshi+2.5 -107 50¢46.5+114 45¢-143 57¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -11045.5 -113+114-137
BetMGM+2.5 -10846 -108+115-140
betPARX+2.5 -11045.5 -113+114-137
BetRivers+2.5 -11045.5 -113+114-137
Caesars+2.5 -11046 -108+114-134
Courtside+2.5 -10846.5 -108+116-132
DraftKings+2.5 -10845.5 -115+114-135
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 55¢ -132 all-in48¢ -100 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10546 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -11045.5 -115+118-138
Fliff+2.5 -11546.5 -110+115-145
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-135
Polymarket——+127—
ReBet+2.5 -10946.5 -109+117-138
theScore Bet+2.5 +10045.5 +100+130-150

Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +2.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (0.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -107 (-0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.5%).
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · +115 at BetMGM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +118 (-0.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi +114 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-4.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or BetMGM 46 at -108 (-2.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F, 48% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $12 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $153 available; Los Angeles Rams -2.5, only $133 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 6, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
FPIPK+102
Sagarinhasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey-1.0-101
Market (15 books)+2.5+127
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.046.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles +2.5-105-106+0.2%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML+115+118-0.7%
TotalOver 46.0-110+102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral
Colts -3
should be Colts -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Colts by 3, the Nasty Number says Colts by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Colts by 3TOM, +106
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
FPI
Colts by 3.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Massey
Colts by 3.5
Nasty Number
Colts by 3.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colts by 3.5opened Colts by 3now Colts by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
Massey
52.25.2 pts over the market
FPI
47.40.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.82.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.8opened 47.5now 47SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3 +10647 -110+155-185
Kalshi+3.546.5 -116 52¢+152 38¢-191 64¢
Pinnacle+3 +11447 -107+162-190
All 26 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3 +10647 -110+155-185
Kalshi+3.546.5 -116 52¢+152 38¢-191 64¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11846.5 -113+148-182
BetAnything+3.5 -11047 -110+160-185
BetMGM+3.5 -11247 -108+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3 +10647 -110+161-185
betPARX+3.5 -11846.5 -113+148-182
BetRivers+3.5 -11846.5 -113+148-182
BetUS+3 +10547 -110+159-185
Bovada+3.5 -11047 -110+165-195
Caesars+3.5 -11347 -110+150-179
Courtside+3.5 -11847.5 +100+153-176
DraftKings+3.5 -11847.5 -102+150-180
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 55¢ -132 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in41¢ +133 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11547 -110+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -12047.5 -102+144-172
Fliff+3.5 -12047.5 -105+145-185
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11546.5 -115+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11546.5 -115+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11546.5 -115+150-180
LowVig.ag+3 +11547 -107+161-185
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11047 -110+145-187
Pinnacle+3 +11447 -107+162-190
Polymarket+3.5 -10846.5+163-170
ReBet+3.5 -12047.5 -109+151-179
theScore Bet+3 +10046.5 -120+150-175

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts -3.0 · -126 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings or FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (-2.5%) · TOM -3 at -126 (-3.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (-3.2%) · Caesars or Kalshi -3.5 at -107 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-7.1%).
Not Nasty
Colts to win · -172 at FanDuel
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Colts to win): FanDuel -172 (-1.4%) · Caesars or DraftKings -179 (-2.3%) · BetMGM or TOM -185 (-3.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -190 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-6.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 47 at -108 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.4%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Commanders).

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +3.5, only $388 available; Over 46.5, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
We settle onColts by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
FPI+3.5+106
Sagarinhasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Massey+3.5+106
Market (22 books)+3.0+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.049.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts -3.0-126-111-3.2%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML-172-162-1.4%
TotalOver 47.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Giants +1
should be Giants PK · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cardinals by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cardinals by 1TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
FPI
Cardinals by 0.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
a pick'em1.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number a pick'emopened Giants by 1now Cardinals by 1SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Giants by 1 to Cardinals by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.4on the market
FPI
42.12.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.3opened 43.5now 44.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1 -10844.5 -112-104-116
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -112 51¢-103 49¢-116 52¢
Pinnacle-1.5 +11644.5 -109+100-115
All 26 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1 -10844.5 -112-104-116
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -112 51¢-103 49¢-116 52¢
Bally Bet+0.5 -11244 -114-109-112
BetAnything+1 -11044.5 -110+100-120
BetMGM+1 -11244.5 -108-105-112
BetOnline.ag+1 -10844.5 -112-104-116
betPARX+0.5 -11244 -114-109-112
BetRiversPK -10944 -114-109-112
BetUSPK -10544.5 -110——
Bovada+1 -11044.5 -110+100-120
Caesars+1 -11044.5 -105-107-110
Courtside+1.5 -11844.5 -106-103-113
DraftKings+1.5 -11844.5 -108-105-115
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 56¢ -138 all-in45.5 51¢ -113 all-in52¢ -117 all-in55¢ -132 all-in
Fanatics-0.5 -10544.5 -110-105-115
FanDuel-1.5 +10243.5 -115-108-108
Fliff+1.5 -12544.5 -105-105-120
Hard Rock Bet+1 -11544 -115-105-115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+1 -11544 -115-105-115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+1 -11544 -115-105-115
LowVig.ag+1 -10344.5 -109-104-116
MyBookie.ag+1 -11044.5 -110-111-115
Pinnacle-1.5 +11644.5 -109+100-115
Polymarket+1.5 -113—+104-108
ReBet+0.5 -11044.5 -110-106-110
theScore Bet+1.5 -12044.5 -105+105-125

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +1.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): TOM +1 at -108 (-0.4%) · Caesars +1 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · BetMGM +1 at -112 (-1.3%) · Fanatics -0.5 at -105 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -104 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Giants to win): Kalshi 49¢ (-0.7%) · TOM -104 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars -107 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -108 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 44.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Caesars 44.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 46% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -0.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Cardinals).

Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $12 available; Over 44.5, only $135 available; Under 44.5, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Deonte Banks (CB, Giants), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
FPI+0.5+100
Sagarinhasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
MasseyPK-100
Market (22 books)+1.0+100
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.543.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +1.0-108-106-0.4%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-104-100-0.9%
TotalUnder 44.5-108-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Ravens -11.5
should be Ravens -11.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 11.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI
Ravens by 11
Sagarin
hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey
Ravens by 10.5
Nasty Number
Ravens by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 11.5opened Ravens by 11now Ravens by 11.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.62.1 pts over the market
FPI
44.81.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
45.21.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.2opened 43.5now 43.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 -11043.5 -108——
Kalshi-11.5 -107 50¢43.5-719 87¢+573 14¢
BetOnline.ag-11.5 -11043.5 -108-675+491
All 24 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 -11043.5 -108——
Kalshi-11.5 -107 50¢43.5-719 87¢+573 14¢
Bally Bet-11.5 -10943.5 -109-770+525
BetAnything-11.5 -11043.5 -110-650+450
BetMGM-11.5 -11043.5 -110-700+525
BetOnline.ag-11.5 -11043.5 -108-675+491
betPARX-11.5 -10943.5 -109-770+525
BetRivers-11.5 -10943.5 -109-770+525
BetUS-11.5 -11043.5 -110-675+490
Caesars-11.5 -10643.5 -110-700+480
Courtside-11.5 -10643.5 -108-669+519
DraftKings-11.5 -10843.5 -110-700+500
DraftKings Predictions-11.5 53¢ -122 all-in42.5 57¢ -144 all-in88¢ -900 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+525
FanDuel-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+530
Fliff-11.5 -11043.5 -110-830+500
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
LowVig.ag-11.5 -10543.5 -105-675+491
MyBookie.ag-11.5 -11043.5 -110-847+500
Polymarket——-614+567
ReBet-12.5 -10943.5 -110-800+550
theScore Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-900+550

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM +11.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +11.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · Caesars +11.5 at -113 (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · +573 (14¢) at Kalshi
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Titans to win): Kalshi 14¢ (3.6%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +530 (2.5%) · DraftKings +500 (1.7%) · Caesars +480 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-1.6%).
Off the band
the Over 43.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 43.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 46% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +11.5, only $12 available; Over 43.5, only $13 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI-11.0-438
Sagarinhasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey-10.5-433
Market (20 books)-11.5-661
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.545.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +11.5-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+573+443priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 43.5-108-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bills -6.5
should be Bills -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 6.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPI
Bills by 6.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey
Bills by 6
Nasty Number
Bills by 70.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 7opened Bills by 7now Bills by 6.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
Massey
46.32.2 pts under the market
FPI
48.90.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.6opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-6.5 -11548.5 -105-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -121 53¢48.5 -103 49¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
Pinnacle-7 +10348.5 -102-305+248
All 26 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-6.5 -11548.5 -105-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -121 53¢48.5 -103 49¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetAnything-6.5 -11548.5 -110-300+240
BetMGM-6.5 -11548.5 -108-325+260
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11548.5 -105-300+245
betPARX-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetRivers-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetUS-6.5 -11548.5 -105-300+250
Bovada-6.5 -12048 -115-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -11748.5 -110-320+250
Courtside-7 -10348.5 -108-302+256
DraftKings-7 -10548.5 -110-310+250
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in77¢ -376 all-in30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11548 -110-320+250
FanDuel-6.5 -11848.5 -110-335+270
Fliff-6.5 -12048.5 -105-345+250
Hard Rock Bet-7 -10547.5 -115-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -10547.5 -115-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -10547.5 -115-325+250
LowVig.ag-7 +10548.5 -102-300+245
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11048.5 -110-300+222
Pinnacle-7 +10348.5 -102-305+248
Polymarket-6.5 -10848.5-285—
ReBet-6.5 -12048.5 -110-300+244
theScore Bet-7 -10548.5 -110-340+270

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -6.5 · -115 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bills): BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -6.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (-2.5%) · DraftKings -7 at -105 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -118 (-2.7%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 53¢ (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -300 at TOM
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Bills to win): TOM -300 (-1.8%) · DraftKings -310 (-2.4%) · Caesars, Fanatics or Kalshi -320 (-3.0%) · BetMGM -325 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -335 (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · TOM or Kalshi 48.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F, 46% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Bills).

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots +6.5, only $195 available; Over 48.5, only $260 available; New England Patriots ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Eli Raridon (TE, Patriots) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPI-6.5-258
Sagarinhasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey-6.0-229
Market (22 books)-6.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -6.5-115-106-2.1%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-300-273-1.8%
TotalUnder 48.5-115-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm
Vikings -11
should be Vikings -11 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 11, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 11TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
FPI
Vikings by 11
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Massey
Vikings by 10
Nasty Number
Vikings by 110.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 11opened Vikings by 10now Vikings by 11SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM
The Four
Massey
39.40.9 pts over the market
FPI
38.10.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
38.80.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.8opened 40.5now 38.5SunMon

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-11 -11038.5 -105——
Kalshi-10.5 -112 51¢39.5-609 85¢+456 17¢
BetOnline.ag-11 -11038.5 -105-650+476
All 23 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-11 -11038.5 -105——
Kalshi-10.5 -112 51¢39.5-609 85¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-11 -10939 -114-670+475
BetAnything-11 -11039 -110-675+475
BetMGM-11 -10839 -108-625+475
BetOnline.ag-11 -11038.5 -105-650+476
betPARX-11 -10939 -114-670+475
BetRivers-11 -10939.5 -107-670+475
BetUS-11 -11038.5 -105-650+475
Caesars-10.5 -11038.5 -118-625+450
Courtside-11.5 -10838.5 -113-646+508
DraftKings-10.5 -11538.5 -115-675+490
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 55¢ -132 all-in39.5 51¢ -113 all-in87¢ -809 all-in20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics-10.5 -11539 -110-650+460
FanDuel-10.5 -11039.5 -110-620+460
Fliff-10.5 -10539.5 -110-660+420
Hard Rock Bet-11 -11039 -115-650+450
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-11 -11039 -115-650+450
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-11 -11039 -115-650+450
LowVig.ag-11 -10538.5 -102-650+476
MyBookie.ag-11 -11039 -110-752+470
ReBet-10.5 -11039.5 -109-676+490
theScore Bet-10.5 -11039.5 -110-750+475

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Dolphins +11.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Dolphins): DraftKings or Fanatics +10.5 at -105 (-1.8%) · BetMGM or TOM +11 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 50¢ (-2.3%) · Caesars +10.5 at -109 (-2.7%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Dolphins to win · +475 at BetMGM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Dolphins to win): DraftKings +490 (1.8%) · BetMGM +475 (1.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi +460 (0.9%) · Caesars +450 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 38.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 38.5 at -105 (0.1%) · BetMGM 39 at -108 (-2.1%) · DraftKings 38.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · Fanatics 39 at -110 (-2.6%) · Caesars 38.5 at -118 (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 39.5, only $12 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $167 available; Miami Dolphins +10.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 5 more.

TOM: total 38.5 here against 39.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
FPI-11.0-434
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Massey-10.0-412
Market (20 books)-11.0-590
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.538.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami Dolphins +11.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineMiami Dolphins ML+475+434priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 38.5-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: total 38.5 here against 39.0 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Mon Oct 5

1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Under, Falcons at Saints
GameThe call
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints
NFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm
Under 48.5
should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. Massey and FPI say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 2.5TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
FPI
Saints by 41.7 pts our side
Sagarin
hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
Massey
Saints by 30.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Saints by 30.6 pts off the market
All 2 systems lean Saints. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Saints by 3opened Saints by 2.5now Saints by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM, Under -108
The Four
Massey
44.14.4 pts under the market
FPI
42.75.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.45.1 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.4opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-2.5 -12048.5 -112-148+123
Kalshi——-148 58¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-3 +10548.5 -105-148+130
All 21 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-2.5 -12048.5 -112-148+123
Kalshi——-148 58¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetAnything-3 +10048.5 -110-150+130
BetMGM-2.5 -11848.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12048.5 -112-148+128
betPARX-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetRivers-2.5 -11748 -110-152+125
BetUS-3 +10048.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-2.5 -12048.5 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -11848.5 -105-150+127
DraftKings-2.5 -11848.5 -112-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 54¢ -127 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -11848.5 -104-148+126
Fliff-2.5 -12548.5 -105-155+125
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11648.5 -109-148+128
MyBookie.ag-3 +10048 -110-156+122
Pinnacle-3 +10548.5 -105-148+130
Polymarket-2.5 -117—-144+127
ReBet-2.5 -13347.5 -110-153+125
theScore Bet-3 +10048.5 -115-145+125

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -2.5 · -120 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (1.2%) · TOM -2.5 at -120 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Saints to win · -148 at FanDuel
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Saints to win): FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi -148 (1.0%) · Caesars or BetMGM -150 (0.7%) · DraftKings -155 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. That's 5.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -118 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Barion Brown (WR, Saints) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
FPI-4.0-192
Sagarinhasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
Massey-3.0-159
Market (17 books)-2.5-142
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.543.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML-148-154+1.0%
SpreadNew Orleans Saints -2.5-120-124+0.8%
TotalUnder 48.5-108-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks4-6-2.32 units · -23% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.3 ptsbeat the close on 6 of 11 posted picks
Open4calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units
LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00
WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95
LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00
LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units
LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00
LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00
WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units
WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91
LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00
LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00
LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00
LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00
WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89
WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91
WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91
WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40
LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00
LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00
LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00
WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85
LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00
WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95
LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00
LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00
LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95
LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)4-640.0%-2.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty4-450.0%-0.3 usmall sample
A Little Nasty21-2942.0%-10.4 u
Not Nasty193 games——no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-28 18:07.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey9.97113
FPI10.57169
The market10.65230
SP+10.66169
Sagarin12.11220

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.07115
Massey1.001.500.00113
SP+1.001.000.00115
Sagarin1.000.000.07139

The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.

The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 30 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market10.1847
Massey10.3230
nfelo10.6047
Sagarin10.6747
FPI10.8032

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.0330
Massey1.000.000.0130
Sagarin1.001.500.0430
nfelo1.001.500.0030

The line archive, 47 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 28 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 42 games. The close misses the final by 10.18, the open by 10.31, our raw ratings number by 10.66, Pinnacle's close by 10.17. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.09, Polymarket 8.91, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 9.68.

The head start. 105 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 44 times, against it 25, average 0.42 points; the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped 4, went quiet 52.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

SettingGamesOur missMarket'sPicks
as it runs18010.0410.571-0
ratings 0%18010.5710.571-0
ratings 5%18010.4810.571-0
ratings 15%18010.3010.571-0
ratings 45%1809.7910.571-0
Sagarin half a vote18010.0410.571-0
Sagarin no vote18010.0410.571-0
FPI a vote and a half18010.0410.571-0
Massey a vote and a half18010.0310.571-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.35Sides: pts vs close, 22 bets, beat it 64%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 105 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 44 of 105 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 52. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
Michigan State at WisconsinMichigan State +10.210.210+0.2no call
Navy at Air ForceOver48.847.1-1.7same side
Ohio State at IowaIowa +14.414.413.5+0.9no call
Ohio at Kent StateOhio -3.5-3.5-4.5+1.0no call
Old Dominion at Georgia StateGeorgia State +2.52.50.9+1.6no call
Purdue at IllinoisIllinois Fighting -9.5-9.5-10+0.5same side
San José State at Hawai'iUnder57.551.8+5.7no call
UCF at HoustonUCF +10.510.511.2-0.7same side
UL Monroe at South AlabamaOver54.555.9+1.4no call
Washington at USCOver53.556.4+2.9no call
West Virginia at Iowa StateIowa State +22-2.7+4.7same side
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersTampa Bay +3.53.54-0.5no call
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+12013.434-46 (42%)22-25 (47%)
Massey12312.627-34 (44%)8-20 (29%)
The blend12512.826-36 (42%)10-19 (34%)

NFL, 37 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey3311.09-11 (45%)4-4 (50%)
FPI3110.68-2 (80%)6-0 (100%)
The blend3310.18-4 (67%)3-1 (75%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

73 priced · 4 Nasty Picks · 22 a little nasty · 4 damn near nasty · audit clean

We read 73 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.

What's changed since 5:22pm

  • MovedPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies is now Pittsburgh Panthers +3.0, was Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5.
  • MovedEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen is now UMass Minutemen -5.5, was UMass Minutemen -4.5.
  • OffCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats dropped off. It was Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 4.0Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinalstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
  • → 3.9West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclonestoward Iowa State Cyclonesagainst the public
  • → 3.4Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukestoward James Madison Dukeswith the public
  • → 2.6Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State Pantherstoward Georgia State Panthersagainst the public
  • → 2.5Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado Buffaloestoward Colorado Buffaloesagainst the public
  • → 2.0UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguarstoward UL Monroe Warhawksagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
10.31Points off per game at that weight
10.31The market on its own
169Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 169 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey14310.04
The market27710.57
nfelo4710.60
FPI20110.61
SP+16910.66
Sagarin26711.85

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.5123-12649%
1.5 to 3.03-827%
3.0 to 5.05-645%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 854570 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.14 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi1701.49
DraftKings3671.44
FanDuel3961.43
BetOnline.ag3561.29
BetRivers3871.29
LowVig.ag3481.29
ReBet1731.22
MyBookie.ag2851.22
Bally Bet1791.15
betPARX1791.14
BetMGM3541.11
BetUS2891.09
Caesars3061.07
TOM3051.06
Bovada3481.04
Fanatics3141.04
Pinnacle3500.96
theScore Bet1770.96
Courtside1270.93
Hard Rock Bet1740.92
BetAnything1530.82
Fliff1280.75
Polymarket320.59
Hard Rock Bet (OH)450.57
Hard Rock Bet (FL)450.52

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated yesterday
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated yesterday
  • Sagarin NFL updated 6 days ago
  • nfelo updated 5 days ago
Log the bets you took

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Saved
Built 6:07 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 3432.