Nasty Picks of the Week No Nasty Picks today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Updated Sun 5:20 pm. TOM's lines from just now. 17 games priced: 1 lean. 56 more wait for the ratings to rebuild after this weekend's games.

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Buck's Take

On paper: 11 games look like Nasty Picks. 2 sides, 9 totals. Every model we run agrees on them.

Why they're not Nasty Picks yet: It's September. The ratings are mostly last year's teams plus a guess. The picks haven't been tested against real results yet. We need 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides before we trust them. So far: 0 and 0.

Betting anyway? Buck likes UNLV at North Texas, Over 57.0 (the models say 65) and Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0 (the models say 44).

Today

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels

6:30 pm · neutral

-6.5

-6.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Ole Miss by 6.5, we say Ole Miss by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Louisville sideOle Miss side

Market

-6.5

SP+

-5.5

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-6.5

Ole Miss -6.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Ole Miss to win · -258 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.

Pass

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Ole Miss -6.5 · -115 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 5.51.1 apart

FPIOle Miss by 6.50.1 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 92.6 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 6.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-171
FPI	-6.5	-193
Sagarin	-9.0	-250
Market (11 books)	-6.5	-224

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ole Miss Rebels -6.5	-115	-101	-3.2%
Moneyline	Ole Miss Rebels ML	-258	-192	-6.3%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

6:30 pm · neutral

-21.0

-21.0

Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.

Wisconsin sideNotre Dame side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-22.5

FPI

-21.0

Sagarin

-18.5

We say

-21.0

Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Notre Dame to win · -2000 at TOM

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 21the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 22.51.7 apart

FPINotre Dame by 210 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 18.52.5 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 2131% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.5	-1167
FPI	-21.0	-949
Sagarin	-18.5	-701
Market (12 books)	-21.0	-1010

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0	-115	+105	-4.7%
Moneyline	Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML	-2000	-946	priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles

tomorrow 6:30 pm

+3.0

+2.5

Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

SMU sideFlorida State side

Market

+3.0

SP+

+1.0

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+7.0

We say

+2.5

Florida State +3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida State to win · +125

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Pass

the Under 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Florida State to win · +125. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Full detail

The marketSMU by 3the number to beat

SP+SMU by 12.2 apart

FPISMU by 12 apart

SagarinSMU by 74.2 apart

We settle onSMU by 2.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.0	+108
FPI	+1.0	+110
Sagarin	+7.0	+205
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+135

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +3.0	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+125	+126	-0.2%
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks

wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm · NFL

-3.5

-3.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-4.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Seahawks to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56.

Pass

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Also out: Aaron Smith (LB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Terrion Arnold (CB, Seahawks), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart

SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
Sagarin	-4.0	-158
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.5	+100	+101	-0.3%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-180	-153	-3.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameMarketOursLean

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams

thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral · NFL

-3.5

-3.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.5

49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

49ers to win · +162 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Pass

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: 49ers to win · +162 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Alex Johnson (CB, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, 49ers).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart

SagarinRams by 40.6 apart

We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-116
Sagarin	-4.0	-160
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+162	+147	+2.4%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-105	-1.1%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes

thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm

-53.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-53.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 2 leans showing so far.

GameMarketOursLean

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles

fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm

-3.5

was -4.5

-1.5

Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side

Market

-3.5

SP+

+3.0

FPI

-6.5

Sagarin

+5.0

We say

-1.5

Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Rutgers to win · +145 at TOM

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42.

Lean

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Rutgers to win · +145 at TOM. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42.

Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +4.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart

FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart

SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart

We settle onBoston College by 1.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+135
FPI	-6.5	-190
Sagarin	+5.0	+168
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5	-115	-121	+1.3%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+145	+115	+5.6%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks

fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

+6.5

+7.0

Lean Missouri, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Missouri: market says Missouri by 6.5, we say Missouri by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

Missouri sideKansas side

Market

+6.5

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+8.5

We say

+7.0

Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Missouri to win · -242 at TOM

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

A play at -5.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat

SP+Missouri by 103.4 apart

FPIMissouri by 42.5 apart

SagarinMissouri by 8.52 apart

We settle onMissouri by 731% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+271
FPI	+4.0	+149
Sagarin	+8.5	+235
Market (9 books)	+6.5	+209

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers -6.5	-112	-107	-1.0%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	-242	-204	-3.7%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-35.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-35.5	-2740

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-30.0

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-30.0	-2963

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers

fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

-43.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-43.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans

fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

-20.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-20.5	-1112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

49 games11 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: UNLV at North Texas, Over 57.0.

GameMarketOursLean

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-12.0

-10.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: both totals models 5.5 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Arkansas sideUtah side

Market

-12.0

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-10.0

Arkansas +12.0 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

Arkansas to win · +345

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Arkansas +12.0 · -110. Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Full detail

The marketUtah by 12the number to beat

SP+Utah by 6.55.3 apart

FPIUtah by 8.53.4 apart

SagarinUtah by 8.53.5 apart

We settle onUtah by 1045% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-190
FPI	-8.5	-232
Sagarin	-8.5	-229
Market (10 books)	-12.0	-375

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	62.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +12.0	-110	-125	+3.2%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+345	+280	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+6.0

was +4.5

+3.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Michigan +6.0: all 3 ratings 6.4 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side

Market

+6.0

SP+

-0.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

+3.0

Michigan +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

Michigan to win · +201 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Lean

the Over 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Michigan to win · +201 at TOM. We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail

The marketOklahoma by 6the number to beat

SP+Michigan by 0.56.4 apart

FPIOklahoma by 15.2 apart

SagarinMichigan by 1.57.6 apart

We settle onOklahoma by 345% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.5	-117
Market (12 books)	+6.0	+215

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +6.0	-110	-132	+4.6%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+201	+136	+9.1%
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+22.5

was +19.5

+21.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 57.5: both totals models 3.7 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side

Market

+22.5

SP+

+20.0

FPI

+19.5

Sagarin

+25.0

We say

+21.5

Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oklahoma State to win · +998 at TOM

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5. The market has moved 3.0 away from Oklahoma State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +23.5. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat

SP+Oregon by 202.4 apart

FPIOregon by 19.52.8 apart

SagarinOregon by 252.3 apart

We settle onOregon by 21.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.0	+847
FPI	+19.5	+810
Sagarin	+25.0	+1525
Market (12 books)	+22.5	+1028

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5	-110	-113	+0.8%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+998	+1035	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green

sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm

+5.0

was +6.5

+4.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.0: both totals models 7.6 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side

Market

+5.0

SP+

+13.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+4.5

North Texas +5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

North Texas to win · +160 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Pass

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: North Texas to win · +160 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).

Full detail

The marketUNLV by 5the number to beat

SP+UNLV by 138 apart

FPIUNLV by 41.2 apart

SagarinUNLV by 32 apart

We settle onUNLV by 4.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+377
FPI	+4.0	+146
Sagarin	+3.0	+135
Market (12 books)	+5.0	+174

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	64.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	North Texas Mean Green +5.0	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	+160	+156	+0.6%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-135	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-28.5

-28.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 52.0: both totals models 7.6 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-26.5

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-33.5

We say

-28.0

Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +2200 at TOM

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +30.0 or better.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat

SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart

FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart

SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart

We settle onNebraska by 2831% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.5	-1919
FPI	-24.5	-1514
Sagarin	-33.5	-5315
Market (11 books)	-28.5	-2017

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-110	-111	+0.3%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2200	+2318	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-9.5

-9.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 50.5: both totals models 6.4 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-18.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-9.5

Georgia State +9.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 6.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM. We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart

FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart

SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart

We settle onKennesaw State by 9.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-708
FPI	-9.5	-257
Sagarin	-8.5	-231
Market (10 books)	-9.5	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+272	+259	+1.0%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+13.0

was +13.5

+12.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Georgia Tech +13.0: all 3 ratings 3.8 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side

Market

+13.0

SP+

+9.0

FPI

+9.5

Sagarin

+9.0

We say

+12.0

Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Georgia Tech to win · +405 at TOM

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

A play at +14.0 or better.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTennessee by 13the number to beat

SP+Tennessee by 93.8 apart

FPITennessee by 9.53.6 apart

SagarinTennessee by 93.8 apart

We settle onTennessee by 1231% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.0	+252
FPI	+9.5	+256
Sagarin	+9.0	+252
Market (11 books)	+13.0	+422

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0	-110	-117	+1.6%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+405	+332	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+6.0

was +6.5

+5.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 59.0: both totals models 4.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side

Market

+6.0

SP+

+5.0

FPI

+8.5

Sagarin

+4.5

We say

+5.5

Florida Atlantic +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32.

Pass

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. That's 4.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM. We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNavy by 6the number to beat

SP+Navy by 50.9 apart

FPINavy by 8.52.3 apart

SagarinNavy by 4.51.7 apart

We settle onNavy by 5.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.0	+166
FPI	+8.5	+231
Sagarin	+4.5	+154
Market (10 books)	+6.0	+192

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	63.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Florida Atlantic Owls +6.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Florida Atlantic Owls ML	+180	+177	+0.4%
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-33.0

was -31.5

-32.5

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: both totals models 6.1 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side

Market

-33.0

SP+

-31.5

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-32.5

Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +3500

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).

Full detail

The marketLSU by 33the number to beat

SP+LSU by 31.51.4 apart

FPILSU by 321.3 apart

SagarinLSU by 39.56.6 apart

We settle onLSU by 32.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-31.5	-4039
FPI	-32.0	-4094
Sagarin	-39.5	-14985
Market (10 books)	-33.0	-3579

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0	-110	-109	-0.2%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+3500	+4568	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebels

sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

-47.5

was -46.5

-46.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 61.5: both totals models 4.4 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side

Market

-47.5

SP+

-43.0

FPI

-33.0

Sagarin

-50.5

We say

-46.0

Charlotte +47.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 61.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 58. That's 4.4 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Charlotte +47.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -46.5, now -47.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +48.0.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 47.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 434.7 apart

FPIOle Miss by 3314.7 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 50.53.2 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 4631% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-43.0	-26145
FPI	-33.0	-4785
Sagarin	-50.5	-126783
Market (3 books)	-47.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +47.5	-110	-121	+2.4%
Total	Under 61.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons

sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

+5.5

was +6.5

+5.0

Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 47.5: both totals models 3.1 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side

Market

+5.5

SP+

-1.0

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+5.0

Air Force +5.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Air Force to win · +176

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.

Pass

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.1 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Air Force to win · +176. We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Air Force, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketNorth Dakota State by 5.5the number to beat

SP+Air Force by 16.3 apart

FPINorth Dakota State by 32.5 apart

SagarinNorth Dakota State by 32.4 apart

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-108
FPI	+3.0	+136
Sagarin	+3.0	+137
Market (9 books)	+5.5	+190

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	50.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons +5.5	-110	-106	-0.8%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	+176	+161	+2.2%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-9.0

was -8.5

-10.0

Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9, we say East Carolina by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side

Market

-9.0

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-11.5

We say

-10.0

East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

East Carolina to win · -350 at TOM

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -7.0 or better.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketEast Carolina by 9the number to beat

SP+East Carolina by 12.53.6 apart

FPIEast Carolina by 11.52.4 apart

We settle onEast Carolina by 1031% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-361
FPI	-11.5	-318
Sagarin	doesn't rate App State
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -9.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-350	-273	-4.6%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-14.5

-16.0

Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 16. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side

Market

-14.5

SP+

-18.0

FPI

-17.5

Sagarin

-18.0

We say

-16.0

Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Texas A&M to win · -650 at TOM

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

A play at -13.5 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat

SP+Texas A&M by 183.7 apart

FPITexas A&M by 17.52.9 apart

SagarinTexas A&M by 183.7 apart

We settle onTexas A&M by 1645% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.0	-676
FPI	-17.5	-619
Sagarin	-18.0	-674
Market (12 books)	-14.5	-479

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -14.5	-107	-112	+1.1%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-650	-534	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-3.0

was -3.5

-2.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side

Market

-3.0

SP+

-1.5

FPI

+2.5

Sagarin

-2.0

We say

-2.5

South Florida +3.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

South Florida to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Lean

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: South Florida to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketArmy by 3the number to beat

SP+Army by 1.51.5 apart

FPISouth Florida by 2.55.5 apart

SagarinArmy by 20.8 apart

We settle onArmy by 2.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-116
FPI	+2.5	+128
Sagarin	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls +3.0	+105	-101	+1.5%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+150	+129	+3.8%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-18.5

was -16.5

-17.5

Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 18.5, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-15.5

FPI

-11.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-17.5

Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Washington State to win · +718 at TOM

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -16.5, now -18.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +19.5. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketKansas State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Kansas State by 15.52.8 apart

FPIKansas State by 11.57.2 apart

SagarinKansas State by 190.4 apart

We settle onKansas State by 17.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-508
FPI	-11.5	-315
Sagarin	-19.0	-738
Market (5 books)	-18.5	-752

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +18.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+718	+632	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-18.0

was -14.5

-18.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side

Market

-18.0

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-14.0

Sagarin

-20.0

We say

-18.0

Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Old Dominion to win · +652 at TOM

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVirginia Tech by 18the number to beat

SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50.3 apart

FPIVirginia Tech by 144 apart

SagarinVirginia Tech by 201.8 apart

We settle onVirginia Tech by 1845% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-638
FPI	-14.0	-422
Sagarin	-20.0	-818
Market (12 books)	-18.0	-692

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +18.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+652	+650	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+23.5

+23.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side

Market

+23.5

SP+

+23.0

FPI

+20.0

Sagarin

+29.5

We say

+23.5

Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Temple to win · +1248 at TOM

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Full detail

The marketPenn State by 23.5the number to beat

SP+Penn State by 230.4 apart

FPIPenn State by 203.4 apart

SagarinPenn State by 29.56.2 apart

We settle onPenn State by 23.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1228
FPI	+20.0	+848
Sagarin	+29.5	+2989
Market (12 books)	+23.5	+1155

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +23.5	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+1248	+1271	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

+4.5

was +5.5

+4.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side

Market

+4.5

SP+

+3.5

FPI

+3.0

Sagarin

We say

+4.0

Purdue +4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Purdue to win · +164 at TOM

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Pass

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Purdue to win · +164 at TOM. We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).

Full detail

The marketWake Forest by 4.5the number to beat

SP+Wake Forest by 3.51.1 apart

FPIWake Forest by 31.3 apart

Sagarina pick'em4.6 apart

We settle onWake Forest by 431% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.5	+140
FPI	+3.0	+138
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	+4.5	+177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +4.5	-115	-103	-2.7%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+164	+150	+2.1%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs

sat 12 sep, 11:45 am

-40.0

was -35.5

-38.0

Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 40, we say Georgia by 38. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side

Market

-40.0

SP+

-36.0

FPI

-32.0

Sagarin

-42.0

We say

-38.0

Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Western Kentucky to win · +9000 at TOM

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM. Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -35.5, now -39.5. The market has moved 4.2 away from Western Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketGeorgia by 40the number to beat

SP+Georgia by 364.1 apart

FPIGeorgia by 328.1 apart

SagarinGeorgia by 421.8 apart

We settle onGeorgia by 3845% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-36.0	-7815
FPI	-32.0	-4161
Sagarin	-42.0	-21935
Market (9 books)	-40.0	-9082

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	55.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0	-105	-125	+4.3%
Moneyline	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML	+9000	+11399	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+9.5

was +8.5

+10.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side

Market

+9.5

SP+

+10.0

FPI

+12.5

Sagarin

+10.0

We say

+10.0

Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Alabama to win · -425 at TOM

We make it 73 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAlabama by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Alabama by 100.7 apart

FPIAlabama by 12.53.1 apart

SagarinAlabama by 100.4 apart

We settle onAlabama by 1045% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.0	+280
FPI	+12.5	+360
Sagarin	+10.0	+271
Market (12 books)	+9.5	+340

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -9.5	-115	-100	-3.4%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-425	-269	priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

was -7.0

-7.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-7.5

FPI

-8.0

Sagarin

-8.5

We say

-7.5

BYU -7.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

BYU to win · -300

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: BYU -7.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat

SP+BYU by 7.50.1 apart

FPIBYU by 80.6 apart

SagarinBYU by 8.51.2 apart

We settle onBYU by 7.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-214
FPI	-8.0	-227
Sagarin	-8.5	-240
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-260

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -7.5	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-300	-217	-6.6%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-3.0

was +2.5

-1.5

Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side

Market

-3.0

SP+

+2.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.5

We say

-1.5

California +3.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

California to win · +135

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 43. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Lean

the Under 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: California to win · +135. We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 43. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketSyracuse by 3the number to beat

SP+California by 2.55.7 apart

FPISyracuse by 0.52.5 apart

SagarinCalifornia by 2.55.5 apart

We settle onSyracuse by 1.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+131
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	+2.5	+127
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +3.0	-110	-115	+1.0%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+135	+114	+4.2%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 1.4.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-6.0

was -7.5

-6.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side

Market

-6.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-4.5

Sagarin

-11.0

We say

-6.5

Illinois -6.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Illinois to win · -235

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.

Pass

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Illinois -6.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat

SP+Illinois by 70.8 apart

FPIIllinois by 4.51.8 apart

SagarinIllinois by 115 apart

We settle onIllinois by 6.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-201
FPI	-4.5	-154
Sagarin	-11.0	-312
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-203

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	58.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	-235	-190	-4.6%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-18.0

was -16.5

-18.5

Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 18, we say Michigan State by 18.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side

Market

-18.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-22.5

We say

-18.5

Michigan State -18.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · -1045

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Michigan State -18.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -16.5, now -18.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -16.0 or better. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketMichigan State by 18the number to beat

SP+Michigan State by 20.52.7 apart

FPIMichigan State by 19.51.6 apart

SagarinMichigan State by 22.54.7 apart

We settle onMichigan State by 18.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-889
FPI	-19.5	-778
Sagarin	-22.5	-1138
Market (12 books)	-18.0	-671

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -18.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-1045	-712	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.7.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+13.5

+14.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Maryland sideUConn side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+15.0

FPI

+10.0

Sagarin

+16.5

We say

+14.0

Maryland -13.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Maryland to win · -550

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Maryland -13.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Full detail

The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Maryland by 151.6 apart

FPIMaryland by 103.3 apart

SagarinMaryland by 16.53.2 apart

We settle onMaryland by 1445% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+15.0	+465
FPI	+10.0	+274
Sagarin	+16.5	+557
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins -13.5	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	-550	-422	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+1.0

was -2.5

-0.5

Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-3.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

-3.5

We say

-0.5

Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Minnesota to win · -103 at TOM

We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.

Pass

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +2.5.

Full detail

The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat

SP+Minnesota by 3.54.6 apart

FPIMinnesota by 0.51.5 apart

SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.5 apart

We settle onMinnesota by 0.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.5	-143
FPI	-0.5	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-142
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+105

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0	-105	-110	+1.1%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-103	-104	+0.3%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-44.5

-44.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Rice sideNotre Dame side

Market

-44.5

SP+

-44.0

FPI

-41.5

Sagarin

-53.0

We say

-44.5

Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Rice to win · +10000 at TOM

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 440.5 apart

FPINotre Dame by 41.53 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 538.3 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 44.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-44.0	-32776
FPI	-41.5	-20558
Sagarin	-53.0	-198394
Market (5 books)	-44.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +44.5	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Rice Owls ML	+10000	+34991	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-7.5

was -8.5

-6.5

Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-4.0

We say

-6.5

UCF +7.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

UCF to win · +250

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.

Lean

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: UCF to win · +250. We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +8.5 or better.

Full detail

The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat

SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.8 apart

FPIPittsburgh by 43.6 apart

We settle onPittsburgh by 6.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-195
FPI	-4.0	-149
Sagarin	doesn't rate UCF
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-260

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +7.5	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+250	+192	+5.6%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

+1.0

was +1.5

-0.5

Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say Texas State by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

We say

-0.5

Texas State +1.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texas State to win · -108

We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.

Pass

the Over 64.5 · -110

SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Texas State +1.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Texas State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +2.5 or better.

Full detail

The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat

SP+Texas State by 12.2 apart

FPITexas State by 34.2 apart

Sagarina pick'em1.1 apart

We settle onTexas State by 0.560% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-113
FPI	-3.0	-138
Sagarin	pk	-101
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+104

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	71.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas State Bobcats +1.0	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Texas State Bobcats ML	-108	-103	-1.1%
Total	Over 64.5	-110	-143	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-10.5

was -7.5

-10.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-13.5

FPI

-7.0

We say

-10.5

UL Monroe +10.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

UL Monroe to win · +325

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 56.0 · -110

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.9 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: UL Monroe +10.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketUAB by 10.5the number to beat

SP+UAB by 13.53.1 apart

FPIUAB by 73.5 apart

We settle onUAB by 10.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-403
FPI	-7.0	-201
Sagarin	doesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-340

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+325	+287	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskies

sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

-27.0

was -24.5

-26.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Utah State sideWashington side

Market

-27.0

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-19.0

Sagarin

-35.0

We say

-26.5

Utah State +27.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Utah State to win · +1548 at TOM

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Utah State +27.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -24.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Washington).

Full detail

The marketWashington by 27the number to beat

SP+Washington by 261.1 apart

FPIWashington by 198.2 apart

SagarinWashington by 357.8 apart

We settle onWashington by 26.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-1770
FPI	-19.0	-725
Sagarin	-35.0	-6519
Market (5 books)	-27.0	-1604

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +27.0	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1548	+1960	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06.

TOM matches the consensus.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores

sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm

-20.5

was -21.5

-22.0

Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20.5, we say Vanderbilt by 22. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side

Market

-20.5

SP+

-25.0

FPI

-15.5

Sagarin

-28.5

We say

-22.0

Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Vanderbilt to win · -1544 at TOM

We make it 91 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -19.0. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVanderbilt by 20.5the number to beat

SP+Vanderbilt by 254.4 apart

FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.8 apart

SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.1 apart

We settle onVanderbilt by 2231% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-1550
FPI	-15.5	-509
Sagarin	-28.5	-2554
Market (12 books)	-20.5	-864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5	-113	-109	-0.8%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	-1544	-1054	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-8.5

was -7.5

-8.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side

Market

-8.5

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.0

We say

-8.0

Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Memphis to win · +260 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Lean

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.9 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Memphis to win · +260 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Boise State).

Full detail

The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat

SP+Boise State by 71.5 apart

FPIBoise State by 62.3 apart

SagarinBoise State by 90.3 apart

We settle onBoise State by 845% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-201
FPI	-6.0	-186
Sagarin	-9.0	-242
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	58.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.5	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+260	+219	+3.6%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-10.5

-6.5

Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

-2.0

We say

-6.5

Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 35 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Discounted

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM. Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Florida International by 0.510.1 apart

FPIFlorida International by 28.4 apart

We settle onFlorida International by 6.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-104
FPI	-2.0	-124
Sagarin	doesn't rate Florida International
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-334

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	48.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.5	-112	-157	+8.2%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+310	+189	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats

sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

-2.5

was -1.5

-2.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side

Market

-2.5

SP+

+2.0

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-1.5

We say

-2.0

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Jacksonville State to win · +105 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Pass

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Ohio).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat

SP+Jacksonville State by 24.3 apart

FPIOhio by 8.55.8 apart

SagarinOhio by 1.51.1 apart

We settle onOhio by 245% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.0	+120
FPI	-8.5	-231
Sagarin	-1.5	-115
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-114

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+105	+122	-3.8%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-15.0

was -17.5

-14.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side

Market

-15.0

SP+

-20.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-14.5

Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Middle Tennessee to win · +500 at TOM

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMarshall by 15the number to beat

SP+Marshall by 20.55.5 apart

FPIMarshall by 9.55.5 apart

SagarinMarshall by 141.1 apart

We settle onMarshall by 14.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-889
FPI	-9.5	-260
Sagarin	-14.0	-415
Market (10 books)	-15.0	-523

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	60.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0	-115	-111	-0.9%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+500	+444	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.7 consensus.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

+14.0

was +15.5

+13.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side

Market

+14.0

SP+

+17.5

FPI

+7.5

We say

+13.5

Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Sam Houston to win · +450 at TOM

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Sam Houston).

Full detail

The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat

SP+Tulsa by 17.53.7 apart

FPITulsa by 7.56.7 apart

We settle onTulsa by 13.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.5	+638
FPI	+7.5	+207
Sagarin	doesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (11 books)	+14.0	+471

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +14.0	-115	-112	-0.6%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+450	+390	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave

sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

-10.5

was -11.5

-11.0

Lean Tulane, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Tulane: market says Tulane by 10.5, we say Tulane by 11. That can change when the new numbers land.

South Alabama sideTulane side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-12.5

FPI

-15.0

Sagarin

-12.0

We say

-11.0

Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Tulane to win · -450 at TOM

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -11.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tulane, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -8.5.

Full detail

The marketTulane by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Tulane by 12.52 apart

FPITulane by 154.5 apart

SagarinTulane by 121.6 apart

We settle onTulane by 1131% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-357
FPI	-15.0	-469
Sagarin	-12.0	-341
Market (11 books)	-10.5	-342

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave -10.5	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	-450	-309	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins

sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

-11.0

was -10.5

-8.5

Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 11, we say UCLA by 8.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side

Market

-11.0

SP+

-7.0

FPI

-1.0

Sagarin

-17.0

We say

-8.5

San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Lean

San Diego State to win · +343 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUCLA by 11the number to beat

SP+UCLA by 74.1 apart

FPIUCLA by 19.8 apart

SagarinUCLA by 176.1 apart

We settle onUCLA by 8.560% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-199
FPI	-1.0	-113
Sagarin	-17.0	-593
Market (11 books)	-11.0	-368

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +11.0	-110	-134	+4.8%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+343	+236	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-21.0

was -23.5

-23.5

Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 21, we say Clemson by 23.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-26.0

FPI

-24.5

Sagarin

-30.5

We say

-23.5

Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Clemson to win · -1695 at TOM

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -23.5, now -21.5. The market has moved 2.1 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -20.5.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -21.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketClemson by 21the number to beat

SP+Clemson by 265.1 apart

FPIClemson by 24.53.3 apart

SagarinClemson by 30.59.7 apart

We settle onClemson by 23.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-26.0	-1818
FPI	-24.5	-1437
Sagarin	-30.5	-3480
Market (10 books)	-21.0	-913

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Clemson Tigers -21.0	-110	-120	+2.2%
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-1695	-1259	priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -21.4 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-13.5

was -14.0

-15.0

Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 13.5, we say Iowa by 15. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side

Market

-13.5

SP+

-17.0

FPI

-13.5

Sagarin

-19.0

We say

-15.0

Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Iowa to win · -697 at TOM

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at -12.5 or better.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

Full detail

The marketIowa by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Iowa by 173.7 apart

FPIIowa by 13.50.2 apart

SagarinIowa by 195.6 apart

We settle onIowa by 1545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-602
FPI	-13.5	-408
Sagarin	-19.0	-750
Market (11 books)	-13.5	-494

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	43.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -13.5	-113	-113	+0.1%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-697	-478	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

-1.5

Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says Texas by 1.5, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side

Market

-1.5

SP+

+7.5

FPI

-0.5

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

Ohio State +1.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Ohio State to win · -103

We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.

Pass

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Ohio State +1.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketTexas by 1.5the number to beat

SP+Ohio State by 7.59.1 apart

FPITexas by 0.50.9 apart

SagarinOhio State by 23.5 apart

We settle ona pick'em45% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+216
FPI	-0.5	-104
Sagarin	+2.0	+124
Market (11 books)	-1.5	-108

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	-103	-102	-0.2%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers

sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

+25.0

was +27.5

+25.5

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side

Market

+25.0

SP+

+25.0

FPI

+26.0

Sagarin

+33.5

We say

+25.5

Texas Tech -25.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Texas Tech to win · -3549

We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 97, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Texas Tech -25.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened +27.5, now +25.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Oregon State).

Full detail

The marketTexas Tech by 25the number to beat

SP+Texas Tech by 250 apart

FPITexas Tech by 260.7 apart

SagarinTexas Tech by 33.58.3 apart

We settle onTexas Tech by 25.531% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+25.0	+1612
FPI	+26.0	+1774
Sagarin	+33.5	+5315
Market (11 books)	+25.0	+1345

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas Tech Red Raiders -25.0	-110	+101	-2.6%
Moneyline	Texas Tech Red Raiders ML	-3549	-1659	priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers

sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

-30.0

was -29.5

-32.0

Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 30, we say Auburn by 32. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side

Market

-30.0

SP+

-34.5

FPI

-19.5

Sagarin

-39.5

We say

-32.0

Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Auburn to win · -5000 at TOM

We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

A play at -29.0 or better.

Full detail

The marketAuburn by 30the number to beat

SP+Auburn by 34.54.4 apart

FPIAuburn by 19.510.7 apart

SagarinAuburn by 39.59.4 apart

We settle onAuburn by 3245% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-34.5	-6135
FPI	-19.5	-766
Sagarin	-39.5	-14265
Market (10 books)	-30.0	-1767

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers -30.0	-110	-117	+1.6%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	-5000	-4214	priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs

sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

-18.5

-17.5

Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side

Market

-18.5

SP+

-24.0

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-16.0

We say

-17.5

Sacramento State +18.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +679

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 48.0 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Sacramento State +18.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

A play at +19.5 or better.

Full detail

The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat

SP+Fresno State by 245.6 apart

FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart

SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart

We settle onFresno State by 17.545% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1414
FPI	-16.0	-520
Sagarin	-16.0	-534
Market (10 books)	-18.5	-707

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.5	-110	-117	+1.4%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+679	+621	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans

sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm

-31.0

was -28.5

-30.0

Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side

Market

-31.0

SP+

-30.5

FPI

-28.0

We say

-30.0

Louisiana +31.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +3000

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 60.0 · -110

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Louisiana +31.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward USC).

Full detail

The marketUSC by 31the number to beat

SP+USC by 30.50.3 apart

FPIUSC by 282.8 apart

We settle onUSC by 3045% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-30.5	-3379
FPI	-28.0	-2342
Sagarin	doesn't rate Louisiana
Market (8 books)	-31.0	-3069

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0	-110	-115	+1.0%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+3000	+3178	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.5.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels

sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

-36.0

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-36.0	-4525

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals

sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

-16.0

was -18.5

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-16.0	-560

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors

sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm

-10.0

—

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Market (10 books)	-10.0	-323

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

12 gamesBest: Lean Titans, Jets at Titans

GameMarketOursLean

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

was -1.0

-1.5

Lean Titans

Lean Titans. Market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5.

Jets sideTitans side

Market

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.5

We say

-1.5

Titans pk · -122 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Titans to win · -129 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50.

Pass

the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Titans pk · -122 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans), Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Tyler Baron (DE, Jets).

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart

SagarinTitans by 4.54.4 apart

We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.5	-166
Market (12 books)	pk	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans pk	-122	-119	-0.7%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-129	-119	-2.1%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-132	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-4.0

-4.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side

Market

-4.0

nfelo

-2.5

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-4.0

Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Pass

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBengals by 4the number to beat

nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart

SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
Sagarin	-4.0	-163
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+173	+157	+2.4%
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-113	-105	-1.9%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-7.0

-7.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Saints sideLions side

Market

-7.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-7.5

We say

-7.0

Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Saints to win · +251 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.

Pass

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Saints to win · +251 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints), Jaylan Ford (LB, Saints). and 1 more

Full detail

The marketLions by 7the number to beat

nfeloLions by 60.8 apart

SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-206
Sagarin	-7.5	-246
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-273

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+251	+226	+2.3%
Spread	New Orleans Saints +7.0	-116	-107	-1.9%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

+3.5

+3.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ravens sideColts side

Market

+3.5

nfelo

+0.5

Sagarin

+3.0

We say

+3.0

Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Colts to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Pass

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Colts to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens), Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Danny Pinter (C, Ravens).

Full detail

The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart

SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+108
Sagarin	+3.0	+145
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+150	+144	+1.0%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-120	-107	-2.8%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

+2.5

+2.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bears sidePanthers side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

+1.0

Sagarin

+2.0

We say

+2.5

Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Panthers to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Pass

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Panthers to win · +130 at TOM. We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Also out: Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Coby Bryant (S, Bears).

Full detail

The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloBears by 11.7 apart

SagarinBears by 20.4 apart

We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
Sagarin	+2.0	+127
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+130	+130	+0.1%
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	+100	+105	-1.1%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers

sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL

-10.0

-9.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Cardinals sideChargers side

Market

-10.0

nfelo

-4.0

Sagarin

-14.0

We say

-9.5

Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Pass

Cardinals to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +11.0 or better.

Also out: Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Scott Matlock (FB, Chargers), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals). and 1 more

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketChargers by 10the number to beat

nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart

SagarinChargers by 144 apart

We settle onChargers by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
Sagarin	-14.0	-540
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-419

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +10.0	-115	-115	+0.0%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+400	+314	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-3.0

-3.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Steelers by 3, we say Steelers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.0

We say

-3.0

Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Steelers to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.

Pass

the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), Keshawn Banks (DE, Falcons), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons), Anterio Thompson (DT, Falcons).

Full detail

The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat

nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart

SagarinSteelers by 41.1 apart

We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-4.0	-160
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers -3.0	-125	-103	-4.7%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	-180	-143	-5.4%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

Pass

Pass. Market says a pick'em, we say a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bills sideTexans side

Market

nfelo

-0.5

Sagarin

We say

Texans pk · -106 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Texans to win · -107 at TOM

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 46.

Pass

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Texans pk · -106 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Zane Durant (DT, Bills).

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketa pick'emthe number to beat

nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart

Sagarina pick'em0 apart

We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-106
Sagarin	pk	+100
Market (12 books)	pk	+100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans pk	-106	-101	-1.2%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-107	-101	-1.4%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL

-1.0

-1.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Packers sideVikings side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-4.5

Sagarin

+0.5

We say

-1.0

Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Vikings to win · -122 at TOM

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 49.

Pass

the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Lean, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Marcus Allen (CB, Vikings), Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Tyler Batty (LB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Collin Oliver (DE, Packers). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketVikings by 1the number to beat

nfeloVikings by 4.53.3 apart

SagarinPackers by 0.51.5 apart

We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-165
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-112

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -1.0	-115	-109	-1.4%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-122	-115	-1.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders

sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL

-3.5

-3.5

Pass

Pass. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Dolphins sideRaiders side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

Sagarin

-5.5

We say

-3.5

Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Raiders to win · -185 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Pass

the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders), Chigozie Anusiem (CB, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart

SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart

We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-120
Sagarin	-5.5	-194
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders -3.5	-105	+103	-1.9%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	-185	-150	-4.9%
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles

sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL

-5.0

-5.0

Pass

Pass. Market says Eagles by 5, we say Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Commanders sideEagles side

Market

-5.0

nfelo

-4.0

Sagarin

-6.5

We say

-5.0

Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Eagles to win · -234 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.

Pass

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Andre' Sam (S, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Curtis Jacobs (LB, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders). and 2 more

Full detail

The marketEagles by 5the number to beat

nfeloEagles by 41 apart

SagarinEagles by 6.51.3 apart

We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-158
Sagarin	-6.5	-208
Market (12 books)	-5.0	-205

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -5.0	-112	+102	-3.4%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-234	-179	-5.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars

sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL

-8.0

-8.0

Held, QB out

Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

Browns sideJaguars side

Market

-8.0

nfelo

-6.0

Sagarin

-9.5

We say

-8.0

Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Pass

Browns to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Pass

the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Elijah Chatman (DT, Browns), Travis Bell (DT, Browns).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat

nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart

SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart

We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-197
Sagarin	-9.5	-310
Market (12 books)	-8.0	-328

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +8.0	-113	-112	-0.2%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+310	+252	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Record6 bets · 3-3 · -0.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How it worksand how the model is doing

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

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How it's going

3-3Record

-0.2Units

-3.5%ROI

8Open

It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

56 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 1 game already kicked off and is left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 56 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 73 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 5 were worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 5:18 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 2.8Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
→ 2.5Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinalstoward Stony Brook Seawolvesagainst the public
→ 2.4Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskiestoward Washington Huskieswith the public
→ 2.3Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojanstoward USC Trojanswith the public
→ 2.0Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcatstoward Kansas State Wildcatswith the public
→ 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 0 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 13218 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.26 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	67	0.53
BetOnline.ag	67	0.52
LowVig.ag	64	0.48
FanDuel	61	0.46
BetMGM	61	0.41
TOM	51	0.30
BetRivers	63	0.19
MyBookie.ag	54	0.15
BetUS	63	0.11
Bovada	61	0.07
Fanatics	53	0.04
Pinnacle	60	0.03
Caesars	61	0.01

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
SP+ updated today
Sagarin updated today
nfelo updated today

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 6

No plays today. Nothing cleared the bar.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.