Every game opens. Click one for all four rating systems against the market, our number on the spread and the total, and how both lines have moved since they opened.
Nasty Picks
A pick posted here stays here until kickoff and is graded at the number we posted. Each one says where it stands at today's line.
UTSA at Texas StateTexas State +1-115 at TOM+1.8%sat 2:30 pm Buck's case ›LowVig.ag is still on +1.0. Pinnacle has -1.5.shrinking, 2.5 pts-1.5 open Monnow +1we say +1.5App State at East CarolinaApp State +7.5-110+4.0%sat 11:00 am Buck's case ›Still a play Called tue 4:52pm at +7.5 -110. Now App State +7.5 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 2 pts+9.5 open Sunnow +7.5we say +6.5Sniff of Nasty
NFL: FPI and Massey and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin hasn't. These leans come from the systems that have rebuilt. Nothing here is a pick yet; the full board lands when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
Buck's Take
Cleared the bar: 2 games made it this week. They're up top.
Worth a look: Nothing this week. Where the sources agree they agree with the market, and the rest is noise.
Where we stand: A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, every system on the same side, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Moved since the last run: Down: Memphis at Boise State (Not Nasty, was A Little Nasty · Over).
Buck
Today
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at RamsNFL 7:35 pm · neutral49ers +3.5should be 49ers +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -118 | 48 -113 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 48 -108 | -195 | +173 |
All 14 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -118 | 48 -113 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 48 -115 | -198 | +173 |
| BetRivers | -4 -108 | 48 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -198 | +170 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 48 -113 | -200 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -198 | +166 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -109 | 48 -109 | -198 | +173 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -204 | +163 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 48 -108 | -195 | +173 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.5 · -102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Also out: Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Nate Hobbs (CB, 49ers) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -154 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -102 | -114 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +165 | +151 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at MiamiCFB 7:00 pmNo betmarket says Miami by 59.5, our data says Miami by 59.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 59.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami by 56.5 to Miami by 59.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -59.5 -111 | 65 -122 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetMGM | -58.5 -115 | 65.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -59 -110 | 65 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -59.5 -110 | 65 -125 | — | — |
| Caesars | -59.5 -108 | 65.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -59.5 -105 | 65.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -59.5 -107 | 65.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -59.5 -110 | 65.5 -118 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -59.5 -111 | 65 -122 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -56.5, now -59.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Miami).
Kalshi thin: Over 66.5, only $464 available; Under 66.5, only $271 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Florida A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Florida A&M | |
| Sagarin | -59.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Florida A&M and Miami on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -59.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Hurricanes -59.5 | -110 | +152 | -12.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 2.8.
The line is -59.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Tomorrow
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Rutgers at Boston CollegeRutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston CollegeCFB tomorrow 6:30 pmOver 54.5should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Rutgers too: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 3, but at -106 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -114 | 54.5 -104 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 +101 | -167 | +144 |
All 14 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -114 | 54.5 -104 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 54.5 -104 | -161 | +141 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 54 -113 | -165 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 54 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 54 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -104 | 54.5 -105 | -164 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -108 | -162 | +136 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 54 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -105 | -154 | +128 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 54.5 -102 | -161 | +141 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -172 | +139 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 +101 | -167 | +144 |
Marked: best for Rutgers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +118 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -162 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 | -106 | -115 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +140 | +138 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -104 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 23:01.
TOM matches the consensus.
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at KansasCFB tomorrow 7:00 pmOver 50.5should be 51.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | +189 33¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -109 | 51 -115 | +178 | -210 |
All 14 books
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 +101 48¢ | +189 33¢ | -218 67¢ |
| BetMGM | +5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -107 | 52 -108 | +180 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -113 | 51.5 -118 | +177 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -115 | 51.5 -108 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 51.5 -106 | +168 | -205 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -103 | 52 -106 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +178 | -222 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -109 | 51 -115 | +178 | -210 |
Marked: best for Kansas, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.4 toward Kansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +140 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +180 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +170 | +162 | +1.1% |
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +5.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.3 consensus.
Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at LouisvilleCFB tomorrow 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Louisville by 36.5, our data says Louisville by 35.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Louisville by 36.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Villanova ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 +105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -104 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Villanova ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 +105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36 -108 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -112 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36.5 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -36.5 -109 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -104 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $383 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Villanova | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Villanova | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Villanova and Louisville on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -36.5 | -2277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Villanova Wildcats +36.5 | -125 | +147 | -15.1% |
| Moneyline | Villanova Wildcats ML | +3051 | — | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC StateCFB tomorrow 6:00 pmNo betmarket says NC State by 30.5, our data says NC State by 30Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says NC State by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Richmond ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31.5 -112 | 49.5 -116 | — | — |
All 11 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Richmond ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -32 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -32.5 -120 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -110 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -32.5 -109 | 50.5 -103 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -32 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -32.5 -120 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31.5 -112 | 49.5 -116 | — | — |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 85°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -30.5, now -32.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward NC State).
TOM: spread -30.5 here against -31.9 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Richmond | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Richmond | |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3965 |
| Massey | rates Richmond and NC State on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -30.5 | -2669 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Richmond Spiders +30.5 | -120 | +153 | -15.1% |
| Moneyline | Richmond Spiders ML | +3500 | +4748 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -30.5 here against -31.9 consensus; total 48.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at VirginiaCFB tomorrow 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Virginia by 44.5, our data says Virginia by 45Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Norfolk State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -125 | 54.5 -130 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Norfolk State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -125 | 54.5 -130 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -45.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44.5 -125 | 54.5 -130 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -45 -114 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| Bovada | -45 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -44.5 -121 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -115 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -45.5 -105 | 55.5 -104 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44.5 -125 | 54.5 -130 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -45 -115 | 54.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 76°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -44.5, now -45.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Virginia).
TOM: spread -44.5 here against -45.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Norfolk State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Norfolk State | |
| Sagarin | -46.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Norfolk State and Virginia on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -44.5 | -125 | +151 | -15.7% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-08 16:04.
TOM: spread -44.5 here against -45.0 consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Sep 12
80 gamesBest: Texas State +1.0, NastiestUTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmTexas State +1should be Texas State +1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · -115 at TOM · was +1.5NastiestBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Texas State +1.0 at -115 at TOM. TOM is 2.5 points off Pinnacle. The sharp books have moved and this number hasn't. Numbers this far off the pack have lost to the pack about 55% of the time over four seasons. No opinion about the game needed.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -115 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 66 -107 | -126 | +110 |
All 13 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -115 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 66.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -125 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2 -113 | 66.5 -115 | -129 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 66 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -114 | 66.5 -108 | -122 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 66.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 66 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -106 | 66.5 -105 | -128 | +106 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -122 | 66 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 66.5 -110 | -122 | +100 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 66 -107 | -126 | +110 |
Marked: best for Texas State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 2.9 toward Texas State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against -1.4 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Texas State +1.0 while Pinnacle is at Texas State by 1.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.5 | +249 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +119 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | -116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.0 | 71.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +105 | -115 | +4.7% |
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -1.0 | -105 | -110 | +1.1% |
| Total | Over 66.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against -1.4 consensus.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amApp State +7.5should be App State +6.5 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +8.5Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take App State +7.5 at -110 at TOM. Market says East Carolina by 7.5, we say East Carolina by 6.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but App State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -108 | 56.5 -106 | -280 | +230 |
All 13 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -275 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -250 | +207 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 56.5 -112 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| Caesars | -7 -110 | 56.5 -109 | -275 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -270 | +220 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 56.5 -106 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -101 | 56.5 -108 | -250 | +207 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 56 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -108 | 56.5 -106 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for App State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 40% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -287 here against -236 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -115 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -179 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5 | -110 | -129 | +4.0% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +240 | +203 | +3.6% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.0 consensus; moneyline -287 here against -236 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLACFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmSan Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5A Little Nasty · San Diego StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 55.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -465 | +335 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -494 | +371 |
All 13 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -465 | +335 |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -475 | +375 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -465 | +361 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 55.5 -112 | -590 | +380 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -465 | +365 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -12 -117 | 55.5 -105 | -460 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 54.5 -120 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55 -112 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -465 | +361 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -494 | +371 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -12.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -11.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -445 here against -391 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -190 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -616 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.5 | -445 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +335 | +302 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -11.8 consensus; moneyline -445 here against -391 consensus.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at PurdueCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amPurdue +3should be Purdue +2 · getting 1 pt · was +5.5A Little Nasty · PurdueBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Purdue. Market says Wake Forest by 3, we say Wake Forest by 2. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Purdue is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.7 points since it opened, from 49.7 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 49 -116 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 50 -107 | +138 | -159 |
All 14 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 49 -116 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 49.5 -116 | +135 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 50 -112 | +128 | -159 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 49.5 -114 | +132 | -157 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | +134 | -162 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 49.5 -115 | +135 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +129 | -159 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 50 -107 | +138 | -159 |
Marked: best for Purdue, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Purdue +3.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 2.5 toward Purdue, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +131 here against +144 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | +102 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +3.0 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +125 | +122 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -116 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus; moneyline +131 here against +144 consensus.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&MCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -104 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -116 | 50.5 -113 | -654 | +464 |
All 13 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -104 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -112 | 50.5 -118 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -700 | +505 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -109 | 51 -115 | -910 | +525 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -105 | 51 -105 | -675 | +460 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -107 | 50.5 -113 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -105 | 50.5 -118 | -750 | +525 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -106 | 51.5 -104 | -690 | +480 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -101 | 50.5 -114 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -725 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -116 | 50.5 -113 | -654 | +464 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -728 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -603 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -571 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.5 | -505 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.5 | -104 | -111 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -700 | -520 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmGeorgia Tech +11.5should be Georgia Tech +10.5 · getting 1 pt · was +13.5A Little Nasty · Georgia TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Tennessee by 11.5, we say Tennessee by 10.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -105 | 55 -115 | +350 | -480 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -110 | 55 -113 | +377 | -503 |
All 14 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -105 | 55 -115 | +350 | -480 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| BetMGM | +12 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -105 | 55 -115 | +370 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +378 | -480 |
| Bovada | +12 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +370 | -510 |
| Caesars | +11.5 -104 | 55.5 -109 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | +360 | -470 |
| Fanatics | +12 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +375 | -500 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -101 | 55 -114 | +370 | -480 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +370 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -110 | 55 -113 | +377 | -503 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech +11.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 89% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Georgia Tech, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +11.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.0 | +608 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +244 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +11.5 | +366 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +11.5 | -105 | -112 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +350 | +321 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 23:25.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.2 consensus.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at IowaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 40.5should be 41 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 40.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.8 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.8 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.8 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -106 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 41 -102 | -597 | +432 |
All 13 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -106 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -600 | +446 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 40.5 -112 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 40.5 -115 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 40.5 -112 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 40.5 -112 | -650 | +470 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 40.5 -112 | -670 | +470 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 40.5 -103 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -105 | 41 -102 | -597 | +432 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -574 here against -467 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -700 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -728 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -106 | -114 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -600 | -493 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus; moneyline -574 here against -467 consensus.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmMontana State -3should be Montana State -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was -4A Little Nasty · Montana StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Montana State. Market says Montana State by 3, we say Montana State by 4.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from our number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Montana State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Montana State -3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Montana State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +233 |
| Massey | rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | +3.0 | +147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana State Bobcats -3.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Montana State Bobcats ML | -167 | -163 | -0.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-08 16:04.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neither TOM nor Kalshi has this market yet, so there's nowhere to take it.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 51should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 5.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 51 -115 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -101 | 51.5 -105 | -216 | +182 |
All 14 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 51 -115 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -210 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 51.5 -112 | -240 | +188 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -225 | +186 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -225 | +184 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 51 -114 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -234 | +186 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -101 | 51.5 -105 | -216 | +182 |
Marked: best for Duke, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -193 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -140 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils +6.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | +175 | +177 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -193 consensus.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at MinnesotaCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 54.6 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Minnesota too: market says a pick'em, we say Minnesota by 1, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | pk -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -116 | 55 -108 | -110 | -104 |
All 14 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | pk -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| BetMGM | +1 -112 | 55.5 -105 | -108 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | pk -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 55.5 -109 | -118 | -106 |
| BetUS | pk -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 55 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -102 | 55.5 -110 | -109 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 +100 | 55.5 -102 | -112 | -108 |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 55 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -122 | 55.5 -105 | -111 | -108 |
| LowVig.ag | pk -106 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -110 | -111 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -116 | 55 -108 | -110 | -104 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.
TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
DraftKings still has Mississippi State +1.5 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 1. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +154 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | pk | -102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers pk | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-05 23:25.
TOM: spread pk here against +0.3 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at ArmyCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 46.5should be 47.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3, we say Army by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -119 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 +109 46¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -105 | -169 | +146 |
All 14 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -119 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 +109 46¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -107 | 46 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -106 | 47.5 -106 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -106 | 46.5 -109 | -170 | +144 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -103 | 46 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -189 | +153 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -105 | -169 | +146 |
Marked: best for the Army side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -223 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -166 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 53.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -3.0 | -119 | -101 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -165 | -139 | -4.0% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at PittsburghCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 56.5should be 55.9 · getting 0.6 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 56.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 57 +101 | -289 | +236 |
All 14 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 56.5 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -109 | 57 -113 | -315 | +235 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 57 -110 | -285 | +238 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -118 | 56.5 -112 | -280 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -120 | 56.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 57.5 -106 | -265 | +215 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 56.5 -108 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -295 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -112 | 57 +101 | -289 | +236 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward UCF).
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -261 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -7.0 | -110 | +110 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -270 | -213 | -4.9% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UABCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 55.5should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -376 | +286 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -381 78¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -109 | 56 -107 | -408 | +317 |
All 14 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -376 | +286 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -381 78¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -376 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 55.5 -113 | -385 | +290 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 56 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -10 -112 | 55.5 -109 | -390 | +305 |
| DraftKings | -10 -115 | 55.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 56 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 55.5 -106 | -376 | +300 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -109 | 56 -107 | -408 | +317 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F, 89% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $10 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $486 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -951 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -232 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -360 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +286 | +295 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -108 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmOver 57should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3, we say UNLV by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UNLV by 5 to UNLV by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 57 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +140 40¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 57 -108 | +140 | -163 |
All 14 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 57 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +140 40¢ | — |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 57 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 56.5 -114 | +133 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 57 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -105 | 56.5 -117 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 56.5 -112 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 57 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 56.5 -110 | +136 | -164 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -104 | 57 -108 | +135 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 57 -110 | +135 | -166 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 57 -108 | +140 | -163 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels ML, only $251 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +435 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +207 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +137 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 64.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels -3.0 | -112 | -104 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | -155 | -143 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at OhioCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmUnder 51should be 50.4 · getting 0.6 pts · was 52.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 51.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.6 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.6 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 50.5 -113 | -133 | +116 |
All 13 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 50.5 -109 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 51 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 51 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 50.5 -110 | -136 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -132 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 51 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -139 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 50.5 -113 | -133 | +116 |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ohio).
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -134 here against -123 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +216 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -105 | +102 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +120 | +123 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline -134 here against -123 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 51should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 13.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.1 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.1 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.1 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -112 | 51 -117 | +365 | -515 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 51 -112 | +420 | -577 |
All 14 books
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -112 | 51 -117 | +365 | -515 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -112 | 51 -117 | +393 | -515 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | +460 | -715 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -515 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -585 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +400 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -535 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +440 | -610 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -101 | 51 -116 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 51 -112 | +420 | -577 |
Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 29% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +14.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -13.5, only $2 available; Under 51.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +381 here against +441 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.0 | +691 |
| FPI | +11.0 | +331 |
| Sagarin | +11.5 | +358 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +381 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -112 | +105 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +365 | +422 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -117 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.
TOM: moneyline +381 here against +441 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida AtlanticCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 58.5should be 60.1 · getting 1.6 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 5, we say Navy by 6. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -103 49¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 58.5 -113 | +173 | -204 |
All 14 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -103 49¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 58.5 -114 | +150 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +5 -115 | 59 -105 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +158 | -192 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -101 | 58.5 -108 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 59 -110 | +171 | -214 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 58.5 -113 | +173 | -204 |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida Atlantic).
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +451 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +396 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 63.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -5.0 | -115 | -106 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -215 | -193 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pmOver 54.5should be 56.5 · getting 2 pts · was 56.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 13, we say Utah by 12.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 13.5 to Utah by 13. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -485 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -107 | 54.5 -115 | -520 | +386 |
All 13 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -485 | +355 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +373 20¢ |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -105 | 55 -110 | -485 | +374 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -13 -105 | 55 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 55 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 55.5 -102 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -104 | -500 | +385 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 55 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -107 | 54.5 -115 | -520 | +386 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $461 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -464 here against -406 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -368 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (11 books) | -13.0 | -464 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.0 | -115 | -101 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +355 | +387 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Utah Utes since 09-06 13:30; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus; moneyline -464 here against -406 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida InternationalCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 8, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 48 +101 | -397 | +310 |
All 14 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -104 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -105 | 47 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -106 | 47.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -440 | +340 |
| Fanatics | -10 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 +100 | 47.5 -108 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 48 +101 | -397 | +310 |
Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls +10.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -333 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -103 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -208 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -115 | -141 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +310 | +238 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.8.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus; total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -333 consensus.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYUCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmArizona +7.5should be Arizona +7.5 · was +7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 48 -108 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -126 54¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 47.5 -111 | -300 | +245 |
All 14 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 48 -108 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -126 54¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | -275 | +226 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 48 -109 | -375 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -275 | +230 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -113 | 48 -113 | -295 | +240 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -112 | 47.5 -112 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -315 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -104 | 47.5 -112 | -275 | +226 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -350 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 47.5 -111 | -300 | +245 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats ML, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
BetRivers still has Arizona +8.5 while Pinnacle is at BYU by 7.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -240 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats +7.5 | -104 | -119 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | +235 | +222 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise StateCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmMemphis to winour data says 30 in 100 · +270 · a price bet, they lose more often than not▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 7.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 55 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 54.5 -114 | -335 | +269 |
All 13 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 55 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -115 | 55 -115 | -325 | +263 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 55 -109 | -400 | +295 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -115 | 55 -115 | -325 | +265 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 55 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -118 | 55.5 -107 | -335 | +270 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 55 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -330 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -111 | 55 -114 | -325 | +263 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 54.5 -114 | -335 | +269 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis to win · +270 at TOM. A price bet, Memphis loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 87°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Memphis, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: moneyline -330 here against -283 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -176 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -234 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -275 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +270 | +229 | +3.4% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.5 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: moneyline -330 here against -283 consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amMichigan to winour data says 38 in 100 · +180 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma by 5, we say Oklahoma by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oklahoma by 6 to Oklahoma by 5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 43 -114 | +182 | -216 |
All 14 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +189 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | +165 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +188 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 43.5 -114 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +185 | -232 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 43 -114 | +182 | -216 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan to win · +180 at TOM. A price bet, Michigan loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +218 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +115 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +180 | +163 | +2.2% |
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +5.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kent State by 11.5, our data says Kent State by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 11.5, we say Kent State by 9.5, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Wofford is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F, 36% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.6 toward Wofford, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wofford | |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | rates Wofford and Kent State on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -11.5 | -427 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wofford Terriers +11.5 | -110 | -131 | +4.3% |
| Moneyline | Wofford Terriers ML | +410 | +275 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neither TOM nor Kalshi has this market yet, so there's nowhere to take it.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at KentuckyCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmKentucky +10should be Kentucky +10 · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | +313 23¢ | -430 80¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -110 | 49 -115 | +323 | -418 |
All 14 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | +313 23¢ | -430 80¢ |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +320 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +316 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 49 -112 | +340 | -530 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +320 | -400 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +320 | -430 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -109 | +305 | -390 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +315 | -410 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -101 | 49.5 -108 | +316 | -400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +330 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -110 | 49 -115 | +323 | -418 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +273 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +460 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +245 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +324 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +10.0 | -105 | -109 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +310 | +287 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball StateCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo betmarket says Ball State by 15, our data says Ball State by 12.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ball State by 15, we say Ball State by 12.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F, 25% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
DraftKings still has Ball State -14.5 while market median is at Ball State by 15.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stony Brook | |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -197 |
| Massey | rates Stony Brook and Ball State on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -15.0 | -612 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stony Brook Seawolves +15.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Stony Brook Seawolves ML | +575 | +398 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neither TOM nor Kalshi has this market yet, so there's nowhere to take it.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at TulaneCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmSouth Alabama to winour data says 27 in 100 · +280 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 10.5 to Tulane by 9.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 50.9 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -116 | 49.5 -109 | -401 | +312 |
All 14 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | -385 | +285 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -114 | 49.5 -112 | -380 | +295 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -112 | -395 | +310 |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -114 | 49.5 -106 | -385 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 49.5 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -116 | 49.5 -109 | -401 | +312 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama to win · +280 at TOM. A price bet, South Alabama loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -193 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -342 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -311 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +280 | +271 | +0.6% |
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +9.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmGeorgia State +9should be Georgia State +9 · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.2 points since it opened, from 50.2 to 54.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -335 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -109 | 54 -115 | -357 | +283 |
All 13 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -335 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -9 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -315 | +256 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -109 | -345 | +245 |
| BetUS | -9 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -315 | +258 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -335 | +265 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -340 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -111 | 54.5 -114 | -315 | +256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -109 | 54 -115 | -357 | +283 |
Marked: best for Georgia State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia State +9.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 79°F, 91% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Georgia State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -738 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -274 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.0 | -105 | -110 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +260 | +262 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says North Carolina by 35.5, our data says North Carolina by 34Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Carolina by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 31% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate East Tennessee State | |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | — |
| Massey | rates East Tennessee State and North Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -35.5 | -4086 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Tennessee State Buccaneers +35.5 | -110 | +134 | -9.7% |
| Moneyline | East Tennessee State Buccaneers ML | +4000 | +9830 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at IndianaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Indiana by 56.5, our data says Indiana by 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 56.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Indiana by 55.5 to Indiana by 56.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -56.5 -110 | 65 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | -56.5 -113 | 66.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -56.5 -112 | 64.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -56.5 -110 | 65 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -56.5 -110 | 65.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -56.0, now -56.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Indiana).
Kalshi thin: Over 65.5, only $50 available; Under 65.5, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Howard | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Howard | |
| Sagarin | -61.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Howard and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -56.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -56.5 | -110 | +136 | -10.1% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.8.
The line is -56.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 18.5, our data says Kansas State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 5 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 23.5 to Kansas State by 18.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 +101 | -960 | +621 |
All 13 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -900 | +613 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -112 | 48 -112 | -1115 | +650 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -900 | +600 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -108 | 48.5 -118 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | -850 | +575 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -115 | 48.5 -114 | -1250 | +740 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -106 | 49 -108 | -900 | +613 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -1099 | +650 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 +101 | -960 | +621 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -558 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -724 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.5 | -659 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +18.5 | -115 | +116 | -7.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +637 | +793 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.5 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amUnder 57should be 55.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 58.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon by 22.5 to Oregon by 23. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.8 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.8 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.8 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -110 | 57 -116 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -108 | 57.5 +100 | +1049 | -2025 |
All 13 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -110 | 57 -116 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +23 -108 | 56.5 -110 | +1150 | -2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +23 -105 | 57 -105 | +1156 | -2500 |
| BetRivers | +22.5 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +1050 | — |
| BetUS | +23 -105 | 57 -110 | +1175 | -2500 |
| Bovada | +23.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1000 | -2200 |
| Caesars | +23.5 -113 | 56.5 -115 | +1000 | -2000 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -112 | 56.5 -112 | +1100 | -2100 |
| Fanatics | +23.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | +1060 | -2300 |
| LowVig.ag | +23 -101 | 57 -103 | +1156 | -2500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +23.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1072 | -2549 |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -108 | 57.5 +100 | +1049 | -2025 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +22.0, now +23.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Oregon).
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.5 | +1122 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1383 |
| Sagarin | +23.5 | +1721 |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.0 | +1119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +23.0 | -110 | +133 | -9.4% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +1086 | +1469 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -104 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 21:50.
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.4 consensus.
The line is +23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 19, our data says Virginia Tech by 19Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 18 to Virginia Tech by 19. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.8 points since it opened, from 50.8 to 50. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -110 | 50.5 -104 | -1157 | +711 |
All 14 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 49.5 -120 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 50 -110 | -1200 | +754 |
| BetRivers | -19 -108 | 49.5 -113 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -115 | 50 -115 | -1200 | +700 |
| Caesars | -19 -109 | 49.5 -117 | -1200 | +700 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -108 | 50.5 -105 | -1100 | +700 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -114 | 49.5 -112 | -1250 | +740 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 50 -108 | -1200 | +754 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 50 -110 | -1408 | +770 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -110 | 50.5 -104 | -1157 | +711 |
Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 76°F, 32% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 4.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -20.5, only $443 available; Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1153 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -750 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1217 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.0 | -761 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -19.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -1200 | -911 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.3 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at TempleCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 49.5should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -110 | 49.5 -113 | +1137 | -2288 |
All 13 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +23.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +1350 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +23.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +1256 | -3000 |
| BetRivers | +23.5 -110 | 49 -114 | +1400 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +1300 | -3000 |
| Bovada | +24 -115 | 50 -105 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +23.5 -104 | 49.5 -112 | +1200 | -2500 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +1200 | -2400 |
| Fanatics | +23.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +1300 | -2500 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -102 | 49.5 -110 | +1400 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +23.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | +1256 | -3000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +1130 | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -110 | 49.5 -113 | +1137 | -2288 |
Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
TOM: spread +23.5 here against +23.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +22.5 | +1469 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1411 |
| Sagarin | +26.0 | +2418 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -105 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.5 | +1235 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +23.5 | -110 | +139 | -10.6% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1256 | +1642 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +23.5 here against +23.8 consensus.
The line is +23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at GeorgiaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 40, our data says Georgia by 40Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 40.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia by 39 to Georgia by 40. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 53.4 to 55.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -105 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41 -112 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -40.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -40.5 -114 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -40.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -114 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40 -106 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -105 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -41.0 (the market moved 5.3 toward Georgia).
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | — |
| FPI | -38.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -157 |
| Market (11 books) | -40.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs -40.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.3 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.8 consensus.
The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Central Michigan by 24, our data says Central Michigan by 20Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Central Michigan by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -24.5 -108 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -23.5 -121 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1100 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -118 | 49.5 -105 | -2800 | +1300 |
| Fanatics | -24 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +1300 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -104 | 49.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -25.0, now -24.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Colgate).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $52 available; Under 49.5, only $53 available; Colgate Raiders ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Colgate | |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Massey | rates Colgate and Central Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -24.0 | -1276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colgate Raiders +24.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Colgate Raiders ML | +1248 | +1056 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Miami (OH) by 30.5, our data says Miami (OH) by 27Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami (OH) by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Miami (OH) by 31.5 to Miami (OH) by 30.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +2243 4¢ |
All 6 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +2243 4¢ |
| BetRivers | -31 -112 | 50.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -30.5 -109 | 49.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -105 | 49.5 -112 | — | +2200 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
Marked: best for the Miami (OH) side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross).
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Holy Cross | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -495 |
| Massey | rates Holy Cross and Miami (OH) on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -30.5 | -2360 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Holy Cross Crusaders +30.5 | -110 | +115 | -5.8% |
| Moneyline | Holy Cross Crusaders ML | +2296 | +2990 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross Crusaders since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.2.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at AkronCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Akron by 27.5, our data says Akron by 25Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Akron by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 42.5 | -3476 97¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 42.5 | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -115 | 42.5 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5 -114 | 41.5 -120 | — | +1400 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 41.5 -115 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -28 -105 | 42.5 -110 | — | +2800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -114 | 41.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Robert Morris).
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $435 available; Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -608 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Akron on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -27.5 | -2037 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +27.5 | -110 | +122 | -7.3% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +2059 | +2183 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.6.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at SyracuseCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Syracuse by 3 to Syracuse by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 57 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 56 -116 | -170 | +146 |
All 14 books
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 57 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 57 -105 | -170 | +149 |
| BetRivers | -3 -118 | 56.5 -112 | -159 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 57 -105 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -104 | 56.5 -117 | -170 | +141 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 56.5 -112 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 56.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 57 -103 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -178 | +144 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 56 -116 | -170 | +146 |
Marked: best for the Syracuse side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -256 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange -3.5 | +100 | +105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | -165 | -151 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut at ToledoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Toledo by 34, our data says Toledo by 31Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -35.0, now -34.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Central Connecticut).
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Connecticut | |
| Sagarin | -24.0 | -1893 |
| Massey | rates Central Connecticut and Toledo on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -34.0 | -3162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Connecticut Blue Devils +34.0 | -110 | +124 | -7.8% |
| Moneyline | Central Connecticut Blue Devils ML | +3082 | +5716 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Central Connecticut Blue Devils since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at ColoradoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Colorado by 34, our data says Colorado by 31.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Weber State | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2445 |
| Massey | rates Weber State and Colorado on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -34.0 | -3307 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Weber State Wildcats +34.0 | -110 | +131 | -9.0% |
| Moneyline | Weber State Wildcats ML | +3231 | +6229 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17.5, our data says Michigan State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Michigan State by 17 to Michigan State by 17.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -108 | 50 -111 | -1012 | +645 |
All 13 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -1000 | +661 |
| BetRivers | -17 -115 | 49 -112 | -1250 | +650 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 50 -115 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -107 | 49.5 -113 | -1000 | +625 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -900 | +600 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -106 | 49.5 -110 | -900 | +590 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -101 | 49.5 -108 | -1000 | +661 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -108 | 50 -111 | -1012 | +645 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Eastern Michigan).
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -877 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -902 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1227 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.5 | -673 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -1000 | -767 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James MadisonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says James Madison by 45.5, our data says James Madison by 42.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 45.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -46.5 -112 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -45.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -45.5 -108 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -45.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $45 available; Under 55.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Wagner and James Madison on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wagner Seahawks +45.5 | -110 | -210 | +15.4% |
The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConnCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 12.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 12.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +365 | -495 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -102 | 52 -116 | +369 | -490 |
All 14 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +365 | -495 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| BetMGM | +12.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| BetRivers | +13 -112 | 51.5 -118 | +440 | -670 |
| BetUS | +12 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +13 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Caesars | +12.5 -107 | 52.5 -107 | +375 | -500 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | +350 | -455 |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +360 | -480 |
| LowVig.ag | +12 -106 | 52.5 -108 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13 -110 | 52 -110 | +380 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -102 | 52 -116 | +369 | -490 |
Marked: best for the UConn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward UConn).
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.5 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +430 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +241 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +443 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +381 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +13.5 | -115 | +101 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +365 | +403 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 17:09; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.5 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre DameCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 55should be 54.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -111 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -114 | 55 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -44.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -44.5 -113 | 54.5 -117 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -112 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -44.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -111 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -39.5 | — |
| FPI | -41.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (11 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +44.5 | -110 | -173 | +10.9% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at MassachusettsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Massachusetts by 24, our data says Massachusetts by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Massachusetts by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Massachusetts by 23.5 to Massachusetts by 24.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -24.5 -108 | 53.5 -120 | — | — |
| Caesars | -23.5 -121 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1100 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | -2400 | +1200 |
| Fanatics | -24 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -2200 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1280 |
Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $87 available; Under 53.5, only $34 available; Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Sacred Heart | |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -288 |
| Massey | rates Sacred Heart and Massachusetts on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -24.0 | -1247 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacred Heart Pioneers +24.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Sacred Heart Pioneers ML | +1200 | +996 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at WashingtonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 56should be 54.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Washington by 23.5 to Washington by 26.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -109 | 55.5 -105 | — | +1548 |
All 13 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -3000 | +1650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | +1500 |
| BetRivers | -26 -114 | 55.5 -113 | — | +1900 |
| BetUS | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | +1200 |
| Caesars | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | — | +1500 |
| Fanatics | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -26.5 -106 | 56 -103 | — | +1500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -27.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -3030 | +1150 |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -109 | 55.5 -105 | — | +1548 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F, 39% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2370 |
| FPI | -22.0 | -1398 |
| Sagarin | -34.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (12 books) | -26.5 | -1590 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +141 | -10.8% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1548 | +2381 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at TroyCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says Troy by 23, our data says Troy by 20.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Troy by 22.5 to Troy by 23.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F, 80% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -22.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Troy).
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Alabama State | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -456 |
| Massey | rates Alabama State and Troy on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -23.0 | -1057 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama State Hornets +23.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Alabama State Hornets ML | +980 | +1083 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Troy Trojans since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New MexicoCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says New Mexico by 41.5, our data says New Mexico by 39.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 41.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -109 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -41.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $34 available; Under 53.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and New Mexico on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +41.5 | -110 | -190 | +13.2% |
The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at WyomingCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says Wyoming by 23, our data says Wyoming by 20.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wyoming by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -24 -114 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -22.5 -115 | 47.5 -118 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | -3200 | +1400 |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -2800 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1400 |
Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 77°F, 26% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $155 available; Under 47.5, only $156 available; Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Northern Colorado | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -473 |
| Massey | rates Northern Colorado and Wyoming on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -23.0 | -1403 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Colorado Bears +23.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Northern Colorado Bears ML | +1400 | +1097 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
The line is -23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMUCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo betmarket says SMU by 25.5, our data says SMU by 26.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 25.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from SMU by 24.5 to SMU by 25.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | UC Davis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
All 6 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | UC Davis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -25.5 -110 | 58.5 -109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -25.5 -117 | 58.5 -112 | — | +1100 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -2800 | +1300 |
| Fanatics | -25.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -2800 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward SMU).
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $2 available; Under 58.5, only $0 available; UC Davis Aggies ML, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UC Davis | |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -3188 |
| Massey | rates UC Davis and SMU on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -25.5 | -1386 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs -25.5 | -110 | -156 | +8.6% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | -3233 | -2588 | priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward SMU Mustangs since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at VanderbiltCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmOver 54should be 54.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 20.5 to Vanderbilt by 21. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -107 | 54.5 -113 | -1495 | +853 |
All 14 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -21 -114 | 54.5 -112 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -21 -105 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Caesars | -21 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1450 | +800 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1350 | +800 |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | -2000 | +980 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -101 | 54.5 -114 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1493 | +790 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -107 | 54.5 -113 | -1495 | +853 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.0 | -1348 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -507 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2136 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -21.0 | -895 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +21.0 | -110 | +125 | -7.9% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +836 | +1093 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at FloridaCFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pmNo betmarket says Florida by 50.5, our data says Florida by 48.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 50.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 49.5 to Florida by 50.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51.5 -112 | 66.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 65.5 -118 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -49.5 -112 | 65.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -50.5 -110 | 66.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -106 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 86°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -50.0, now -50.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Florida).
Kalshi thin: Over 65.5, only $39 available; Under 65.5, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| Sagarin | -45.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Campbell and Florida on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -50.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Campbell Fighting Camels +50.5 | -110 | -189 | +13.1% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Florida Gators since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.1.
The line is -50.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb at LibertyCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Liberty by 27, our data says Liberty by 24Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Liberty by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -27 -114 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
| Caesars | -27.5 -107 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 55.5 -105 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1400 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Liberty).
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $34 available; Under 54.5, only $92 available; Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $335 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -720 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Liberty on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -27.0 | -1706 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +27.0 | -110 | +115 | -5.9% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1800 | +1897 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Liberty Flames since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red WolvesWest Georgia at Arkansas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Arkansas State by 28.5, our data says Arkansas State by 24.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arkansas State by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| FPI | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -498 |
| Massey | rates West Georgia and Arkansas State on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -28.5 | -2475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Georgia Wolves +28.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | West Georgia Wolves ML | +2400 | +1908 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at NebraskaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 51.5should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 29.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 28.5 to Nebraska by 29.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -113 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -115 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -30.5 -107 | 51.5 -113 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -30 -111 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -30 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1525 |
| Pinnacle | -30 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F, 38% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -30.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Nebraska).
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -30.1 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.0 | -2949 |
| FPI | -28.5 | -3564 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (12 books) | -29.5 | -2140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +29.5 | -110 | +147 | -12.0% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2400 | +4084 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -30.1 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at CincinnatiCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Cincinnati by 36.5, our data says Cincinnati by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 36.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36.5 -114 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -108 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $51 available; Under 60.5, only $79 available; Western Carolina Catamounts ML, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2565 |
| Massey | rates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -36.5 | -2740 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Carolina Catamounts +36.5 | -110 | +131 | -9.0% |
| Moneyline | Western Carolina Catamounts ML | +2668 | — | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 82°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -258 |
| Massey | rates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -20.5 | -1057 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5 | -110 | +104 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds ML | +1050 | +809 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Illinois State by 4, our data says Illinois State by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 4, we say Illinois State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Illinois State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | rates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | +4.0 | +155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois State Redbirds -4.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Illinois State Redbirds ML | -175 | -154 | -2.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Illinois State Redbirds since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Missouri State by 20, our data says Missouri State by 17Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri State by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Lindenwood).
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -320 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -20.0 | -989 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +20.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +950 | +704 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at MarshallCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Marshall by 13, our data says Marshall by 11.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 13, we say Marshall by 11.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Marshall by 16 to Marshall by 13. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -105 | 57 -105 | -618 | +443 |
All 14 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 57.5 -105 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -560 | +421 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -670 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 57 -105 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 57 -105 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -112 | 57 -114 | -590 | +425 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -550 | +410 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 57 -103 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -549 | +390 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -105 | 57 -105 | -618 | +443 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 78°F, 82% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -13.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $165 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -536 here against -456 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -252 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -361 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +390 | +356 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.1 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus; moneyline -536 here against -456 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 43, our data says South Carolina by 43Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 43.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43 -112 | 55 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | -43.5 -109 | 55.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $51 available; Under 55.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Towson | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Towson | |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Towson and South Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -43.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Towson Tigers +43.0 | -110 | -164 | +9.7% |
The line is -43.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at WisconsinCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmNo betmarket says Wisconsin by 38, our data says Wisconsin by 41Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 38.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
All 6 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38 -115 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -38.5 -105 | 48.5 -121 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -105 | 48.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -37.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Wisconsin).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -38.0 | -4570 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wisconsin Badgers -38.0 | -110 | -211 | +15.4% |
| Moneyline | Wisconsin Badgers ML | — | — | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -38.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 ptNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 20.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -102 | 55.5 -112 | -1385 | +808 |
All 14 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 56 -105 | -1500 | +874 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 56 -105 | -1500 | +850 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 56 -105 | -1500 | +775 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -112 | 55.5 -113 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -1200 | +750 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 56 -103 | -1500 | +874 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1442 | +764 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -102 | 55.5 -112 | -1385 | +808 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 79°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $440 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -430 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -652 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -861 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5 | -110 | +118 | -6.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +850 | +940 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 34.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 31Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Coastal Carolina by 32.5 to Coastal Carolina by 34.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 6 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34 -110 | 54 -109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -109 | 52.5 -117 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.4 toward Coastal Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $53 available; Under 52.5, only $52 available; Fordham Rams ML, only $401 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -928 |
| Massey | rates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -34.5 | -2719 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fordham Rams +34.5 | -110 | +118 | -6.5% |
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams ML | +2500 | +5791 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSUCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 54.1 · getting 1.4 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -112 | 56 -109 | — | — |
All 14 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35 -113 | 55.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35 -115 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 +100 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35.5 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 +100 | 55.5 -114 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -111 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -35 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -112 | 56 -109 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward LSU).
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4206 |
| FPI | -32.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -34.0 | — |
| Massey | -3.5 | -148 |
| Market (12 books) | -35.0 | -3561 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0 | -110 | +146 | -11.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4405 | +9597 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -117 | 49 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 49.5 -108 | -121 | +105 |
All 13 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -117 | 49 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -130 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -115 | 49 -120 | -128 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -1 -110 | 49.5 -109 | -120 | -105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -122 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 49.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -118 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -111 | 49 -110 | -128 | +108 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -125 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 49.5 -108 | -121 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +129 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -130 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 | -103 | +103 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +107 | +113 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 53.5should be 52 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26.5 -110 | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26 -106 | 53.5 -110 | +1372 | -3061 |
All 13 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26.5 -110 | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +26 -118 | 54.5 -110 | +1550 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +26 -115 | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +26.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | +1700 | — |
| BetUS | +26 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | +26 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +1100 | — |
| Caesars | +26 -110 | 53.5 -117 | +1500 | — |
| DraftKings | +25.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | +1400 | -3200 |
| Fanatics | +26.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +1500 | -3000 |
| FanDuel | +26.5 -115 | 53.5 -118 | +1600 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +26 -111 | 53.5 -116 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +26.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +1175 | -3030 |
| Pinnacle | +26 -106 | 53.5 -110 | +1372 | -3061 |
Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 59°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +27.0, now +26.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Oregon State).
TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1701 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1669 |
| Sagarin | +27.5 | +3118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1448 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +138 | -10.4% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2327 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -103 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.1 consensus.
The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmUnder 57should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 34.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -115 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -103 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -115 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -110 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -33.5 -107 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | — | +2200 |
| Fanatics | -32 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -106 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -33 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +1650 |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -103 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 81°F, 82% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -30.0, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward Auburn).
Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $201 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -33.3 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -609 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -34.5 | -2453 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +34.5 | -105 | +107 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +2400 | +4855 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -108 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 16:07; total has moved up 4.1.
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -33.3 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole MissCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmNo betmarket says Ole Miss by 47.5, our data says Ole Miss by 45.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 61. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -47.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47.5 -101 | 60.5 -113 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -47.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -47.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -47 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -47 -112 | 61 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -47.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -47.5 -105 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -47.5 -108 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -47.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -47 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -47.5 -106 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47.5 -101 | 60.5 -113 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Ole Miss).
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 60.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.5 | — |
| FPI | -35.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -5.0 | -175 |
| Market (10 books) | -47.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +47.5 | -110 | -189 | +13.0% |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 60.6 consensus.
The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at BaylorCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 39, our data says Baylor by 37Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 39.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Baylor by 37.5 to Baylor by 38.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | — |
All 6 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -110 | 55.5 -109 | — | — |
| Caesars | -39.5 -105 | 55.5 -117 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -39.5 -115 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened -38.0, now -39.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Baylor).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $245 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -39.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Prairie View A&M Panthers +39.0 | -110 | +135 | -9.8% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Baylor Bears since 09-08 16:04.
The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo betmarket says UTEP by 26, our data says UTEP by 22.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 26.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | — |
All 6 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -25.5 -113 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -25.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | — | +1500 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -26 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.
Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Texas Southern).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $53 available; Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -480 |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -26.0 | -1921 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +26.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +2000 | +1425 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Texas Southern Tigers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 0.5.
The line is -26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 2, our data says North Dakota State by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +108 | -128 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -104 | +110 | -126 |
All 13 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +108 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +108 | -128 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -110 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -115 | 47 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -132 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 47.5 -106 | +108 | -128 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +107 | -131 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -104 | +110 | -126 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -108 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +150 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.0 | +113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +2.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +108 | +119 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -108 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 18. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -112 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +100 | 45 -112 | -1024 | +651 |
All 13 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -112 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -112 | 45 -107 | -1000 | +661 |
| BetRivers | -18 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetUS | -18 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 45 -115 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -114 | 44.5 -121 | -1200 | +675 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -115 | 44.5 -120 | -950 | +625 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -1100 | +680 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -108 | 45 -105 | -1000 | +661 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 45 -110 | -1299 | +710 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +100 | 45 -112 | -1024 | +651 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -457 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -451 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.0 | -692 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.0 | -108 | +102 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +661 | +655 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -107 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 31, our data says USC by 29.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 31. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 59.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -112 | 60 -103 | — | — |
All 14 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -112 | 59 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -31 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -31 -109 | 59.5 -110 | — | +1900 |
| DraftKings | -31.5 -105 | 59.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -31 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -31.5 -104 | 59.5 -108 | — | +2800 |
| LowVig.ag | -31 -106 | 59.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -31 -110 | 60 -110 | — | +1725 |
| Pinnacle | -31 -112 | 60 -103 | — | — |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward USC).
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2334 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2649 |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4325 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.0 | -2397 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -110 | +138 | -10.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2500 | +4348 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West VirginiaCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward West Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Massey | rates UT Martin and West Virginia on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -27 -114 | 53.5 -109 | — | +1500 |
| Caesars | -25.5 -110 | 52.5 -118 | — | +1200 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| Fanatics | -27 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $52 available; Under 53.5, only $53 available; Monmouth Hawks ML, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Massey | rates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -26.5 | -1514 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 6 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51 -114 | 61 -112 | — | — |
| Caesars | -51.5 -109 | 60.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -51.5 -112 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -51.5 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -49.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F, 48% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $86 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Massey | rates Southern and Houston on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -51.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCUCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Massey | rates Grambling and TCU on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José StateCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Massey | rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales | |
| Market (5 books) | -20.5 | -1105 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | — |
No usable prices or projections for this game.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii RainbowCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -252 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-06 12:32; total has moved down 1.6.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Under, Cardinals at ChargersArizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, we say Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 47 -111 | -470 | +370 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +393 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 47 -114 | -500 | +375 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -9 -105 | 47 -115 | -490 | +355 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -102 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -490 | +380 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 47 -113 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -490 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 47 -111 | -470 | +370 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Kaleb Proctor (DT, Cardinals), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals).
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -393 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -307 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -366 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +9.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +365 | +325 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 15:31.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -393 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 47should be 46.3 · getting 0.7 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, we say Bears by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -102 | 47 -108 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -113 | 47 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 46.5 -118 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 46.5 -115 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -114 | 47.5 -102 | +138 | -164 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -107 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +138 | -170 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 1 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +125 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +129 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +140 | +140 | +0.0% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -105 | -105 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.2 consensus.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 45should be 45.6 · getting 0.6 ptsSniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 45.0. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 45 -110 | +101 | -121 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 +101 | 45 -105 | +107 | -120 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 45 -110 | +101 | -121 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 45 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -105 | 45 -110 | +101 | -121 |
| BetRivers | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -104 | -118 |
| BetUS | pk +100 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 45 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -117 | +100 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -114 | 44.5 -118 | +100 | -118 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +100 | 45 -107 | +101 | -121 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 45 -110 | -101 | -120 |
| Pinnacle | +1 +101 | 45 -105 | +107 | -120 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 45.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +106 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +101 | +106 | -1.2% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 50should be 49 · getting 1 ptSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 4.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -104 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -104 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -108 | 50 -113 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 49.5 -115 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -108 | 50.5 -102 | -310 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +100 | 50 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 2 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -249 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -104 | +117 | -4.8% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -310 | -240 | -5.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 38.5should be 40.4 · getting 1.9 ptsSniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 38.5. Massey say over by 6.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | pk -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 38.5 -107 | -116 | +103 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | pk -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -116 52¢ | +101 48¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | pk -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -109 | 38.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetUS | pk -120 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 38.5 -112 | -122 | +103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -112 | -125 | +105 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -124 | +106 |
| LowVig.ag | pk -112 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -124 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 38.5 -107 | -116 | +103 |
Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.
Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: spread pk here against -1.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -146 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -144 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | pk | -110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans pk | -116 | -112 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -123 | -112 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread pk here against -1.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 46should be 44.8 · getting 1.2 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 46 -115 | -123 | +103 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -116 | 46 -110 | -123 | +109 |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 46 -115 | -123 | +103 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -115 | 46 -115 | -123 | +103 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -109 | 46 -113 | -124 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1 -115 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -105 | 46 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 46.5 -107 | -122 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -120 | +102 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -110 | 46 -113 | -123 | +103 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -123 | -103 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -116 | 46 -110 | -123 | +109 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers +1.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +115 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | -105 | +106 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +103 | +112 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -105 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBuccaneers to winour data says 38 in 100 · +170 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 50 -111 | -201 | +174 |
All 14 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +174 |
| BetRivers | -4 -109 | 50.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 50 -115 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -106 | -205 | +171 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -112 | -200 | +168 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 +100 | 50.5 -102 | -200 | +174 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -208 | +166 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 50 -111 | -201 | +174 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · +170 at TOM. A price bet, Buccaneers loses more often than not.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals).
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -171 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -191 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +170 | +162 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -115 | -113 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Browns is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 40.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +102 | 40.5 -102 | -396 | +320 |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 40.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -110 | 40 -108 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -105 | 39.5 -115 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 39.5 -115 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -108 | 39.5 -129 | -420 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 39.5 -118 | -485 | +370 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -430 | +340 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +100 | 39.5 -113 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -469 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +102 | 40.5 -102 | -396 | +320 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F, 26% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 1 more.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -340 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -311 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -282 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -115 | -119 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +297 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.2 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -340 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Steelers by 3.5, our data says Steelers by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Steelers by 3 to Steelers by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -104 | 42 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -120 | 42.5 +103 | -212 | +183 |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -104 | 42 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 42 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -5 -109 | 41.5 -110 | -220 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -4.5 -105 | 42 -105 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -107 | 41.5 -117 | -225 | +183 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -115 | 41.5 -105 | -230 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -105 | 42 -107 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -222 | +177 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -120 | 42.5 +103 | -212 | +183 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Steelers).
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -4.5, only $415 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), DeShon Elliott (S, Steelers) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -4.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -172 here against -193 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -184 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -147 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | -116 | -114 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +150 | +151 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -4.0 consensus; moneyline -172 here against -193 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 3.5, our data says Ravens by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -122 | 48 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 47.5 -121 53¢ | +146 39¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -117 | +152 | -174 |
All 14 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -122 | 48 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 47.5 -121 53¢ | +146 39¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 48 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -126 | 48 -105 | +153 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -117 | 48 -110 | +150 | -179 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | +154 | -184 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -122 | 48 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +142 | -175 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -117 | +152 | -174 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +3.5, only $49 available; Under 47.5, only $363 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens).
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -122 | -118 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +145 | +146 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, we say Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -167 | +146 |
All 14 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 40.5 -108 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 40.5 -109 | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 40.5 -112 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 39.5 -112 | -174 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 40.5 -107 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 40 -110 | -177 | +137 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -167 | +146 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -179 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -153 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 | -107 | +100 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -165 | -146 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Eagles by 5 to Eagles by 4.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -113 | 44.5 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 44.5 -102 | -243 | +208 |
All 14 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -113 | 44.5 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -235 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -107 | 44.5 -108 | -235 | +195 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -110 | 44.5 -102 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -250 | +189 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 44.5 -102 | -243 | +208 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +5.5, only $42 available; Over 44.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Laremy Tunsil (OT, Commanders), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | -113 | +108 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -225 | -178 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, we say Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -110 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 47.5 -116 | +141 | -160 |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -110 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -118 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -113 | 48 -110 | +138 | -158 |
| BetRivers | +3 -115 | 48 -108 | +132 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -113 | 47.5 -120 | +134 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -154 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 48 -107 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +111 | 47.5 -116 | +141 | -160 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.0 | -113 | -106 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +133 | +138 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL mon 14 sep, 7:15 pmUnder 43.5should be 42.1 · getting 1.4 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 4.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +111 | 44 -104 | -142 | +126 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -112 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +123 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -153 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +111 | 44 -104 | -142 | +126 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -147 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | -116 | -112 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -145 | -139 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 17
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at PittsburghCFB thu 17 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 59.5should be 58.6 · getting 0.9 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $56 available; Syracuse Orange ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -282 |
| FPI | -10.0 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -302 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (1 books) | -10.5 | -312 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +10.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +295 | +306 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL thu 17 sep, 7:15 pmNo betmarket says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 51.5 -115 | -170 | +141 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 51.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 1 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -141 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wednesday's games | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (7 books) | -3.0 | -156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions +3.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | +141 | +145 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
Every call the board made, graded on what it said at kickoff. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
9 picks voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Michigan State Spartans (spread), Michigan Wolverines (moneyline), Arkansas Razorbacks (spread), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (spread), Ohio State Buckeyes (moneyline), Minnesota Golden Gophers (moneyline), California Golden Bears (moneyline), Texas A&M Aggies (spread), San Diego State Aztecs (spread).
Sunday September 6
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSaturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Not Nasty | 1 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Scoreboard
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How it's going
It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 2 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 17 sep, 6:30 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 103 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 22 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.
What's changed since 2:18 pm
- NewBuffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers is now a pick: Buffalo Bulls +10.5 at -115.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.0Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanestoward Miami Hurricaneswith the public
- → 2.0Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina Chanticleerstoward Coastal Carolina Chanticleerswith the public
- → 1.5UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineerswith the public
- → 1.5UC Davis Aggies at SMU Mustangstoward SMU Mustangswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 5 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 137790 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.87 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38 | 3.05 |
| BetOnline.ag | 76 | 1.05 |
| LowVig.ag | 73 | 1.01 |
| BetMGM | 73 | 1.00 |
| MyBookie.ag | 68 | 0.86 |
| BetRivers | 138 | 0.85 |
| FanDuel | 145 | 0.83 |
| DraftKings | 116 | 0.83 |
| Bovada | 71 | 0.81 |
| BetUS | 70 | 0.79 |
| Pinnacle | 73 | 0.67 |
| Fanatics | 139 | 0.66 |
| TOM | 72 | 0.65 |
| Caesars | 110 | 0.62 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated yesterday
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated yesterday
- Sagarin updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 2 days ago
- nfelo updated today