Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 9:39 am · 4 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOMNasty Pick · called Wed 3:29pmStill a playSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: Kalshi at 50¢ · DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in).UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +8.5 -110 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amStill a playSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Bet it. UCF +10 · -104 at TOM, 1.5 points better, 6 cents better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.San Diego State at Oregon StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsSan Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Wed 7:49amStill a playSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -107 at TOM, 1.5 points better, 2 cents worse than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amDon't chaseSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted UNLV +3 +100 at TOM on Tuesday; now UNLV +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from +100 to -105, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3, you're set. It's a play again at +3 +100 or better.

Buck's Take

Four Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM, San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel, UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics and UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.

North Carolina at Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh -3.5. Every system has Pittsburgh by 9; the market has Pittsburgh by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -3.

Colts at Steelers, Colts +3. Every system has a pick'em; the market has Steelers by 2.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is NC State +3.5 (Wake Forest at NC State) at 3.2% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio -2, 1.5 points our way since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Texas A&M at Missouri, Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Broncos at ChargersChargers +3.5-108 at BetMGM · 2.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Chargers): BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (1.7%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Colts at SteelersColts +3-118 at DraftKings · 2.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +3 at -118 (2.3%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.9%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.2%) · Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

49ers at Seahawks49ers +3+105 · 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +105 (2.2%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.5%) · FanDuel +3 at -104 (-0.0%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -105 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-0.5%).Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); 54¢ costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than +105. The price wins.

North Carolina at PittsburghPittsburgh -3.5should be Pittsburgh -5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelNeeds a better numberSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): TOM -170 (2.4%) · BetMGM -175 (1.7%) · FanDuel or Caesars -178 (1.3%) · Fanatics -180 (1.1%) · Kalshi 63¢ (0.8%).

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Central Michigan at Ohio, Ohio -2. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the line has moved 1.5 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Misses the Cut: needs 4.5% after the price.

Central Michigan at OhioMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOhio -2should be Ohio -3 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Ohio): Kalshi -1.5 at 51¢ (3.6%) · TOM -2 at -110 (3.0%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.3%) · Caesars -2.5 at -109 (2.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -2.5 at -110 (1.9%).

Wake Forest at NC StateMoved our way · 1 ptNC State +3.5should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (3.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (2.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM +3 at -101 (1.9%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -117 (52¢ on the app) (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Giants at CommandersGiants +4should be Giants +3 · getting 1 ptSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Giants): Caesars +3.5 at -106 (3.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (2.7%) · TOM +4 at -116 (2.5%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +3.5 (the games that land on 4); -116 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -106. The price wins.

Kent State at Western MichiganWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (0.8%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -14 at -108 (0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM -14 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

South Carolina at FloridaSouth Carolina +10.5should be South Carolina +10 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings PredictionsSat 11:45am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (South Carolina): BetMGM +10.5 at -105 (1.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +10.5 at -107 (1.1%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (0.8%) · TOM +10.5 at -109 (0.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +10.5 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Totals, on their own, ranked by edge. Two numbers read every total: the model (each team's pace, efficiency and scoring this season, the weather and the market, fitted on four seasons) and the pace number (plays times points per play). College posts when the total opens 2 or more off the model with the pace number on the same side, or 3 off either alone; the read is good for about 12 hours, and the market has usually closed most of it by then. The NFL posts when the model sits 4 or more off the market, any day of the week; it is the newest number here with the shortest record. Team totals and first-half totals read the pace number at 3 points scaled to their size. The edge is the backtest's win chance on a gap that size less what the price costs: low single digits at best, and the ranking is the point. Each one is posted at the number shown and graded there, in its own record. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Vikings at Saints#1 Over 41.5-110 at BetMGM · model 51.5, pace number 45, market 41.9 · edge +1.3%Model numberSun 12:00pmStill there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

Lions at Cardinals#2 Under 54.5-105 at DraftKings · model 50.3, pace number 52.4, market 54.5 · edge +1.1%Model numberSun 3:25pmStill there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Caesars -110.

Browns at Jets#3 Over 39.5-110 at BetMGM · model 45, pace number 43.7, market 39.8 · edge +0.2%Model numberSun 12:00pmStill there: BetMGM -110, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

Delaware at Middle Tennessee#4 Over 46.5-110 at FanDuel · model 49.6, pace number 49.4, market 46.5, ratings 50.1 · edge +0.2%Model and paceTue 6:00pmStill there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -178.

Moved closer since the 9:36am build

Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 9:36am build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 8:33am✓SagarinSun 10:16am✓MasseyFri 9:18am✓SP+ sat out for 99 teams: no rebuild by Tuesday 9am, so their games are priced on the systems that have. 24 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloWed 7:47am✓FPIFri 3:50pm✓SagarinTue 10:42am✓MasseyFri 9:18am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

When the Nasty Number disagrees with the market by 3 or more, that side has covered 8 of 31 this season.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereTotals That Are Just Flat Nasty a total 3+ points off the pace number, posted inside 12 hours of opening; its own record, never a pickNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

46 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at Missouri

CFB 11:00am

Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM

Bet it · now Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Nasty Pick · called at +3.5 -108Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: Kalshi at 50¢ · DraftKings Predictions at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in). Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 3.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game

FPI

Missouri by 12.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em3.7 pts our side

Massey

Texas A&M by 1.55 pts our side

Nasty Number

Missouri by 30.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

Model number

49.11.9 pts under the market

Pace number

51.70.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.21.8 pts under the market

Massey

50.40.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 49.1, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	51 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	50.5 -104	-179	+157

All 24 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	51 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -108	50.5 -109	-180	+148
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	51 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 -108	50.5 -109	-180	+148
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	50.5 -110	-180	+140
BetUS	-3.5 -110	51 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-3.5 -105	50.5 -105	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -108	50.5 -105	-176	+148
Courtside	-3.5 -110	50.5 -106	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	50.5 -108	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-178	+146
Fliff	-3.5 -115	50.5 -115	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	51 -108	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	50.5 -110	-193	+156
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	50.5 -104	-179	+157
Polymarket	-3.5 -108	49.5 -117	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -111	50.5 -114	-193	+156
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	50.5 -105	-175	+150

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Texas A&M): Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -110 (2.9%) · Caesars +3.5 at -112 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Texas A&M to win · +145 at FanDuel

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +150 (3.5%) · Caesars +148 (3.2%) · FanDuel, Kalshi, BetMGM or TOM +146 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 50.5

The pace number is 51.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 50.5; the model says 49.1, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5, only $339 available; Under 49.5, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game
FPI	-1.0	-106
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	+1.5	+111
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +3.5	-110	-123	+2.9%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+145	+130	+2.7%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon State

CFB 5:00pm

San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuelMoved our way · 1.5 pts

Bet it · now San Diego State +16 · -107 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +14.5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +16 · -107 at TOM, 1.5 points better, 2 cents worse than the +14.5 -105 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oregon State by 16, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 14.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 16TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game

FPI

Oregon State by 10.55.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon State by 97 pts our side

Massey

Oregon State by 97 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 141.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

Model number

520.5 pts under the market

Pace number

52.80.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.16.4 pts under the market

Massey

48.83.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 52.8, 0 pts under the market's 52.8; the model says 52, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-16 -113	52.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-16.5 -103	53 -105	-709	+517

All 23 books

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-16 -113	52.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-16 -108	52.5 -113	-835	+540
BetAnything	-16 -110	52.5 -110	-800	+550
BetMGM	-16.5 -110	52.5 -110	-750	+525
BetOnline.ag	-16 -113	52.5 -105	-750	+534
betPARX	-16 -108	52.5 -113	-835	+540
BetRivers	-16 -110	52.5 -114	-910	+540
BetUS	-16.5 -110	52.5 -110	-750	+530
Bovada	-16 -110	53 -105	-750	+500
Caesars	-16.5 -108	52.5 -112	-800	+525
Courtside	-16.5 -106	52.5 -108	-715	+545
DraftKings	-16.5 -108	52.5 -110	-750	+525
DraftKings Predictions	-16.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	14¢ +525 all-in
Fanatics	-16.5 -110	52.5 -110	-750	+525
FanDuel	-15.5 -118	52.5 -108	-880	+580
Fliff	-16.5 -115	52.5 -120	-840	+535
Hard Rock Bet	-15.5 -110	52.5 -110	-850	+550
LowVig.ag	-16 -109	52.5 -103	-750	+534
MyBookie.ag	-16.5 -110	52.5 -110	-847	+530
Pinnacle	-16.5 -103	53 -105	-709	+517
Polymarket	-16.5 +104	53.5 +104	-614	+567
theScore Bet	-15.5 -115	52.5 -105	-800	+500

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +16.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (San Diego State): TOM +16 at -107 (1.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +16.5 at -110 (1.8%) · FanDuel +15.5 at -104 (1.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +16.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (1.4%) · Kalshi +16.5 at 52¢ (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

San Diego State to win · +580 at FanDuel

We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): FanDuel +580 (2.1%) · Kalshi, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +530 (14¢ on the app) (0.9%).

Off the band

The total · 53

The pace number is 52.8, 0 pts under the market's 52.8; the model says 52, 0.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 59°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -16.5. The market has moved 1.6 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +17.0.

Kalshi thin: Oregon State Beavers -16.5, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.3 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-369
Sagarin	-9.0	-308
Massey	-9.0	-307
Market (19 books)	-16.0	-668

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +16.0	-107	-115	+1.8%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+580	+495	priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-115	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -16.0 here against -16.3 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma State

CFB 11:00am

UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics

Bet it · now UCF +10 · -104 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +8.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +10 · -104 at TOM, 1.5 points better, 6 cents better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 10, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 8.5.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 10TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game

FPI

Oklahoma State by 37 pts our side

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 46 pts our side

Massey

UCF by 0.510.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 8.51.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UCF is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

Model number

54.40.4 pts over the market

Pace number

51.12.9 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.87.2 pts under the market

Massey

48.25.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.1, 2.7 pts under the market's 53.9; the model says 54.4, 0.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10 -116	54 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10 -110	54 -105	-411	+330

All 24 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10 -116	54 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -110	54 -108	-480	+340
BetAnything	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-10.5 -110	53.5 -110	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-10 -116	54 -110	-400	+316
betPARX	-10.5 -110	54 -108	-480	+340
BetRivers	-10.5 -112	54 -109	-480	+340
BetUS	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-10 -115	54 -105	-430	+320
Caesars	-10.5 -112	53.5 -108	-400	+305
Courtside	-10.5 -112	53.5 -110	-383	+319
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	53.5 -112	-395	+310
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 49¢ -104 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -105	54 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	53.5 -110	-400	+310
Fliff	-10.5 -115	53.5 -120	-445	+325
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	53.5 -115	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-10 -110	54 -108	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-429	+320
Pinnacle	-10 -110	54 -105	-411	+330
Polymarket	-10.5 +108	53.5 +100	-376	+355
ReBet	-10.5 -114	53.5 -114	-429	+320
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	53.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +10.0 · -104 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (UCF): DraftKings or Caesars +10.5 at -108 (2.5%) · BetMGM +10.5 at -110 (2.0%) · TOM +10 at -104 (1.7%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi +10.5 at -115 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

UCF to win · +340 at BetMGM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): BetMGM +340 (2.1%) · Kalshi 22¢ (1.6%) · Fanatics +325 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 22¢ on the app (+317 all-in) (0.8%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or TOM +310 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 54

The pace number is 51.1, 2.7 pts under the market's 53.9; the model says 54.4, 0.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +10.5. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game
FPI	-3.0	-138
Sagarin	-4.0	-171
Massey	+0.5	+102
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +10.0	-104	-111	+1.7%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+340	+303	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLV

CFB 6:00pm

UNLV +3 +100 at TOM

Don't chase · now UNLV +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Nasty Pick · called at +3 +100Don't chaseBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted UNLV +3 +100 at TOM on Tuesday; now UNLV +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from +100 to -105, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +3, you're set. It's a play again at +3 +100 or better. Market says North Dakota State by 2, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore UNLV →

Market

North Dakota State by 2TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game

FPI

UNLV by 12.8 pts our side

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 0.51.4 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em2.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 20.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UNLV. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

54.46.4 pts over the market

Pace number

49.41.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

50.92.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.13.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.4, 1.6 pts over the market's 47.9; the model says 54.4, 6.5 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+2 -105	48 -107	+110	-130
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -104	48 -102	+115	-130

All 23 books

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+2 -105	48 -107	+110	-130
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	47.5 -112	+112	-137
BetAnything	+2 -110	48 -110	+110	-130
BetMGM	+2.5 -110	48.5 -105	+110	-130
BetOnline.ag	+2 -105	48 -107	+110	-130
betPARX	+2.5 -109	47.5 -112	+112	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -112	47.5 -113	+112	-137
BetUS	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+110	-130
Bovada	+2.5 -110	47.5 -115	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -109	48 -108	+117	-137
Courtside	+2.5 -108	47.5 -113	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -108	47.5 -115	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	47.5 -115	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	47.5 -118	+115	-138
Fliff	+2.5 -115	47.5 -125	+110	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	47.5 -110	+110	-135
LowVig.ag	+2 -101	48 -105	+110	-130
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	48 -110	+110	-135
Pinnacle	+2.5 -104	48 -102	+115	-130
Polymarket	+2.5	47.5 -104	+117	-122
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	47.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.

UNLV +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (UNLV): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (0.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +2.5 at -107 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-0.7%) · TOM +2 at -105 (-1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (-1.1%).

The call

UNLV to win · +117 at Caesars

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (UNLV to win): Caesars +117 (0.4%) · FanDuel +115 (-0.0%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +114 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-0.5%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +110 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.3 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +2.5, only $190 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game
FPI	-1.0	-103
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	PK	+100
Market (19 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	+117	+115	+0.4%
Spread	UNLV Rebels +2.5	-105	-105	+0.0%
Total	Over 48.0	-107	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh

CFB 11:00am

Pittsburgh -3.5

should be Pittsburgh -5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Pittsburgh -3.5: all 3 ratings 5.5 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

Pittsburgh by 95.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 8.55.1 pts our side

Massey

Pittsburgh by 95.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Pittsburgh by 51.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

Model number

45.11.9 pts under the market

Pace number

48.91.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

41.35.7 pts under the market

Massey

48.81.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.9, 1.9 pts over the market's 47; the model says 45.1, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-170	+140
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -112	47 -108	-182	+159

All 24 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-170	+140
Kalshi	-4.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -108	47 -108	-177	+140
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -115	46.5 -115	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-170	+149
betPARX	-3.5 -108	47 -108	-177	+140
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	47 -109	-177	+140
BetUS	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-4 -110	47 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -112	47 -112	-179	+151
Courtside	-3.5 -112	47.5 -106	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	46.5 -118	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	47 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	47.5 -105	-178	+146
Fliff	-3.5 -120	46.5 -125	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-175	+140
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -111	47 -108	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-200	+161
Pinnacle	-3.5 -112	47 -108	-182	+159
Polymarket	-3.5 -108	47.5 +104	-170	+163
ReBet	-4 -114	47 -114	-200	+161
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	47.5 -105	-170	+145

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -3.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): FanDuel -3.5 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars -3.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 49¢ (0.5%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Pittsburgh to win · -170 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): TOM -170 (2.4%) · BetMGM -175 (1.7%) · FanDuel or Caesars -178 (1.3%) · Fanatics -180 (1.1%) · Kalshi 63¢ (0.8%).

Not Nasty

The total · 47

The pace number is 48.9, 1.9 pts over the market's 47; the model says 45.1, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -170 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.

A play at -3.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $85 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	-9.0	-309
Sagarin	-8.5	-303
Massey	-9.0	-310
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	-170	-189	+2.4%
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5	-110	-117	+1.5%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC State

CFB 11:00am

NC State +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +2

A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore NC State →

Market

Wake Forest by 3TOM, -101

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game

FPI

Wake Forest by 4.51.6 pts against us

Sagarin

a pick'em3.2 pts our side

Massey

NC State by 1.54.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Wake Forest by 2.50.3 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean NC State. FPI at Wake Forest by 4.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

Model number

55.70.8 pts under the market

Pace number

56.4on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.94.4 pts over the market

Massey

59.12.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.4, 0.1 pts over the market's 56.2; the model says 55.7, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3 -101	56.5 -105	+135	-160
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	56.5 -107 50¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -110	56 -108	+146	-166

All 24 books

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3 -101	56.5 -105	+135	-160
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	56.5 -107 50¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -115	56.5 -112	+145	-180
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	56.5 -110	+140	-160
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	56.5 -110	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3 +100	56.5 -105	+140	-160
betPARX	+3.5 -115	56.5 -112	+145	-180
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	56.5 -113	+145	-182
BetUS	+3.5 -110	56.5 -110	+142	-165
Bovada	+3.5 -115	56 -110	+145	-170
Caesars	+3.5 -117	56.5 -110	+140	-164
Courtside	+3.5 -112	56.5 -108	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	56.5 -110	+140	-166
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	57.5 48¢ -100 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	56.5 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	56.5 -112	+134	-162
Fliff	+3.5 -120	56.5 -115	+135	-175
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	56.5 -110	+145	-180
LowVig.ag	+3 +104	56.5 -103	+140	-160
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	57 -110	+142	-175
Pinnacle	+3.5 -110	56 -108	+146	-166
Polymarket	+3.5 -108	55.5	+150	-156
ReBet	+3.5 -116	57 -111	+142	-175
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	56.5 -105	+140	-165

Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State +3.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (3.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (2.8%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM +3 at -101 (1.9%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -117 (52¢ on the app) (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

NC State to win · +145 at BetMGM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (NC State to win): BetMGM +145 (3.0%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi +140 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (1.8%) · TOM or FanDuel +135 (1.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 56

The pace number is 56.4, 0.1 pts over the market's 56.2; the model says 55.7, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 66°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $127 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +156 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game
FPI	+4.5	+181
Sagarin	PK	-100
Massey	-1.5	-111
Market (20 books)	+3.0	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	57.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	NC State Wolfpack +3.5	-110	-125	+3.2%
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	+145	+128	+3.0%
Total	Over 56.5	-105	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 5.2.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +156 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 4.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at Ohio

CFB 2:30pm

Ohio -2Moved our way · 1.5 pts

should be Ohio -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -3.5

A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says Ohio by 2, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 2TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game

FPI

Ohio by 52.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Ohio by 2on the market

Massey

Ohio by 7.55.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio by 31.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

Model number

46.50.5 pts over the market

Pace number

48.12.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

43.12.9 pts under the market

Massey

47.71.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.1, 2.3 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 46.5, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	46.5 +101 48¢	-126 54¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	46 -102	-127	+113

All 24 books

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	46.5 +101 48¢	-126 54¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2 -113	45.5 -112	-132	+107
BetAnything	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-135	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
betPARX	-2 -113	45.5 -112	-132	+107
BetRivers	-2 -114	45.5 -114	-132	+107
BetUS	-2 -110	46 -110	-130	+110
Bovada	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-130	+110
Caesars	-2.5 -109	45.5 -110	-137	+116
Courtside	-2.5 -108	45.5 -110	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -108	45.5 -112	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	45.5 -108	-128	+106
Fliff	-1.5 -125	45.5 -120	-135	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -105	45.5 -110	-130	+105
LowVig.ag	-2 -106	46 -108	-130	+110
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-135	+110
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	46 -102	-127	+113
Polymarket	-1.5	45.5 -104	—	+113
ReBet	-2.5 -114	45.5 -114	-135	+110
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	45.5 -105	-125	+105

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -2.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ohio): Kalshi -1.5 at 51¢ (3.6%) · TOM -2 at -110 (3.0%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.3%) · Caesars -2.5 at -109 (2.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -2.5 at -110 (1.9%).

A Little Nasty

Ohio to win · -130 at Fanatics

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Ohio to win): Kalshi 54¢ (3.3%) · FanDuel -128 (2.8%) · Fanatics or TOM -130 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (2.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -135 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 48.1, 2.3 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 46.5, 0.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio -2.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -1.5, only $74 available; Ohio Bobcats ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game
FPI	-5.0	-184
Sagarin	-2.0	-115
Massey	-7.5	-276
Market (20 books)	-2.0	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -2.0	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-130	-144	+2.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.7.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western Michigan

CFB 2:30pm

Western Michigan -13.5

should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

A Little Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 14, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Western Michigan by 14TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

Western Michigan by 194.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 16.52.6 pts our side

Massey

Western Michigan by 173 pts our side

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 14.50.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Western Michigan. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

47.13.6 pts over the market

Pace number

46.12.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

412.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.30.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.1, 2.7 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 47.1, 3.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-14 -110	43.5 -108	-600	+430
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -102	43.5 -105	-598	+451

All 24 books

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-14 -110	43.5 -108	-600	+430
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-14 -106	43.5 -112	-670	+460
BetAnything	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-600	+450
BetMGM	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-600	+425
BetOnline.ag	-14 -110	43.5 -108	-600	+446
betPARX	-14 -106	43.5 -112	-670	+460
BetRivers	-14 -107	43.5 -113	-715	+460
BetUS	-14 -110	43 -110	-550	+425
Bovada	-14 -105	43.5 -105	-625	+430
Caesars	-14 -108	43.5 -110	-625	+450
Courtside	-14 -106	43.5 -108	-576	+455
DraftKings	-14 -108	43.5 -110	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	17¢ +426 all-in
Fanatics	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -114	43.5 -110	-630	+450
Fliff	-13.5 -125	43.5 -115	-655	+445
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	43.5 -110	-650	+450
LowVig.ag	-14 -106	43.5 -106	-600	+446
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	43.5 -110	-659	+445
Pinnacle	-14 -102	43.5 -105	-598	+451
Polymarket	-13.5 -117	—	-567	—
ReBet	-14 -116	43.5 -111	-752	+500
theScore Bet	-13.5 -120	43.5 -110	-700	+450

Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (0.8%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -14 at -108 (0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM -14 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -600 at DraftKings

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): Kalshi 84¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -600 (-1.6%) · Caesars or FanDuel -625 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 85¢ on the app (-670 all-in) (-2.9%).

Off the band

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	-19.0	-808
Sagarin	-16.5	-608
Massey	-17.0	-646
Market (20 books)	-14.0	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -13.5	-114	-118	+0.8%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-600	-529	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.5	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at Florida

CFB 11:45am

South Carolina +10.5

should be South Carolina +10 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings Predictions · was +15

A Little Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 10. At -109 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 10.5TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game

FPI

Florida by 8.51.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida by 82.7 pts our side

Massey

Florida by 7.52.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida by 100.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean South Carolina. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM

Model number

56.61.9 pts under the market

Pace number

59.91.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

61.83.3 pts over the market

Massey

61.12.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 59.9, 1 pt over the market's 59; the model says 56.6, 2.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 62 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-10.5 -111	58.5 -115	-465	+335
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	59.5 -107 50¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	59 -112	-468	+368

All 24 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-10.5 -111	58.5 -115	-465	+335
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	59.5 -107 50¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -112	59 -108	-480	+350
BetAnything	-10.5 -110	59 -110	-475	+365
BetMGM	-10.5 -115	58.5 -115	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -111	58.5 -115	-455	+354
betPARX	-11.5 -112	59 -108	-480	+350
BetRivers	-11.5 -112	59 -109	-480	+350
BetUS	-10.5 -110	59 -110	-450	+355
Bovada	-10.5 -110	59.5 -105	-490	+355
Caesars	-10.5 -113	59 -112	-480	+370
Courtside	-10.5 -112	59.5 -103	-454	+371
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	59.5 -105	-470	+360
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 51¢ -113 all-in	60.5 48¢ -100 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	59 -110	-510	+380
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	58.5 -118	-420	+320
Fliff	-10.5 -120	58.5 -125	-485	+350
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	58.5 -115	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -107	58.5 -114	-455	+354
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	59 -110	-439	+324
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	59 -112	-468	+368
Polymarket	-10.5 -104	59.5 +100	-426	+400
ReBet	-10.5 -116	59 -116	-420	+310
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	59.5 -105	-500	+360

Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +10.5 · 50¢ on the app (-109 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Carolina): BetMGM +10.5 at -105 (1.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +10.5 at -107 (1.1%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (0.8%) · TOM +10.5 at -109 (0.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +10.5 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · +380 at Fanatics

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): Fanatics +380 (2.7%) · Kalshi or Caesars +373 (2.4%) · DraftKings +360 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (1.5%) · BetMGM +350 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 59

The pace number is 59.9, 1 pt over the market's 59; the model says 56.6, 2.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +10.5 · 50¢ on the app (-109 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 83°F, 33% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -10.5. The market has moved 4.2 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5, only $180 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 59.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game
FPI	-8.5	-303
Sagarin	-8.0	-283
Massey	-7.5	-280
Market (20 books)	-10.5	-445

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	60.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks +10.5	-109	-112	+0.6%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	+380	+325	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.5	-115	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 59.0 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno State

CFB 9:30pm

Fresno State +7

should be Fresno State +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +8

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Boise State by 7TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game

FPI

Boise State by 7

Sagarin

Boise State by 5.5

Massey

Boise State by 4.5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 6.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

480.5 pts under the market

Pace number

501.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

48.90.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 50, 1.5 pts over the market's 48.5; the model says 48, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+205	-265
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +103	48.5 -104	+222	-261

All 23 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+205	-265
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+217 30¢	-263 71¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+190	-240
BetAnything	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+220	-265
BetMGM	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+240	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+219	-265
betPARX	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+190	-240
BetRivers	+6.5 -113	48.5 -113	+190	-245
BetUS	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+223	-265
Bovada	+7 -120	48 -115	+220	-270
Caesars	+7 -113	48.5 -110	+215	-265
Courtside	+7 -108	48.5 -108	+215	-252
DraftKings	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+210	-258
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	48.5 -110	+215	-265
FanDuel	+6.5 +100	48.5 -108	+220	-275
Fliff	+6.5 -105	48.5 -115	+215	-280
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -110	48.5 -110	+190	-240
LowVig.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -108	+219	-265
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+228	-295
Pinnacle	+6.5 +103	48.5 -104	+222	-261
Polymarket	—	47.5 -117	+233	-245
theScore Bet	+6.5 +105	48.5 -110	+220	-270

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fresno State +7.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +7 at -110 (1.2%) · Caesars +7 at -113 (0.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +6.5 at +101 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.1%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (0.0%).

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · +240 at BetMGM

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): BetMGM +240 (2.7%) · FanDuel +220 (0.8%) · Kalshi 30¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +215 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (0.1%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48.5

The pace number is 50, 1.5 pts over the market's 48.5; the model says 48, 0.5 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +7.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.6 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +214 here against +243 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game
FPI	+7.0	+248
Sagarin	+5.5	+196
Massey	+4.5	+182
Market (19 books)	+7.0	+214

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	+240	+212	+2.7%
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs +7.0	-110	-115	+1.2%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.6 consensus; moneyline +214 here against +243 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at California

CFB 2:30pm

California +10

should be California +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 10, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore California →

Market

Virginia Tech by 10TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 8.51.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 5.54.6 pts our side

Massey

Virginia Tech by 46 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 8.51.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean California. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

Model number

53.90.9 pts over the market

Pace number

55.42.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.83.2 pts under the market

Massey

552 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.4, 2.3 pts over the market's 53.1; the model says 53.9, 0.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+10 -110	53 -110	+290	-380
Kalshi	+9.5 +101 48¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+296 24¢	—
Pinnacle	+10 -105	53 -110	+309	-381

All 24 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+10 -110	53 -110	+290	-380
Kalshi	+9.5 +101 48¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+296 24¢	—
Bally Bet	+10 -113	53.5 -110	+295	-385
BetAnything	+10 -110	53 -110	+320	-400
BetMGM	+10 -110	53.5 -105	+300	-375
BetOnline.ag	+10 -110	53 -110	+303	-380
betPARX	+10 -113	53.5 -110	+295	-385
BetRivers	+10 -114	53.5 -112	+295	-385
BetUS	+10 -110	53 -110	+305	-380
Bovada	+10 -110	53 -110	+300	-400
Caesars	+10 -110	53 -110	+280	-360
Courtside	+10 -108	53.5 -106	+303	-364
DraftKings	+10 -110	53.5 -108	+295	-375
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 47¢ +104 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+10 -110	53.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -105	53.5 -110	+290	-375
Fliff	+9.5 -105	53.5 -115	+295	-395
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -105	53.5 -110	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+10 -106	53 -108	+303	-380
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	53 -110	+310	-410
Pinnacle	+10 -105	53 -110	+309	-381
Polymarket	+10.5 -113	53.5 +100	+317	-335
ReBet	+10 -116	52.5 -114	+310	-410
theScore Bet	+9.5 +100	52.5 -115	+280	-360

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +10.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): Kalshi +9.5 at 48¢ (1.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +10 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

California to win · +290 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (California to win): BetMGM +300 (-0.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +296 (-0.4%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +290 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-1.1%) · Caesars +280 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 53

The pace number is 55.4, 2.3 pts over the market's 53.1; the model says 53.9, 0.8 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 59°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $22 available; Under 53.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +303 here against +350 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game
FPI	+8.5	+302
Sagarin	+5.5	+192
Massey	+4.0	+170
Market (20 books)	+10.0	+303

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +10.0	-110	-112	+0.3%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+290	+303	-0.8%
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.6.

TOM: moneyline +303 here against +350 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at Vanderbilt

CFB 2:30pm

Vanderbilt +9.5

should be Vanderbilt +8 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Ole Miss by 9.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 5

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 4

Massey

Ole Miss by 7

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 81.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

Model number

52.50.5 pts under the market

Pace number

55.42.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

6310 pts over the market

Massey

57.54.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.4, 1.5 pts over the market's 53.8; the model says 52.5, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	53 -120	+270	-360
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	55.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -108	53.5 -111	+291	-356

All 23 books

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	53 -120	+270	-360
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	55.5 +105 47¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -109	54.5 -110	+300	-400
BetAnything	+9.5 -110	54 -110	+297	-375
BetMGM	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -110	53 -120	+289	-360
betPARX	+9.5 -109	54.5 -110	+300	-400
BetRivers	+9.5 -110	54.5 -112	+300	-400
BetUS	+9.5 -110	54 -110	+290	-360
Bovada	+9 -110	54 -105	+285	-370
Caesars	+9.5 -107	54.5 -109	+285	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -108	54.5 -106	+287	-345
DraftKings	+9.5 -108	54.5 -108	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -110	54 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+9.5 -108	54.5 -114	+275	-350
Fliff	+9.5 -115	54.5 -115	+275	-370
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+300	-400
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	54 -110	+270	-360
Pinnacle	+9.5 -108	53.5 -111	+291	-356
Polymarket	+8.5 +104	53.5	+300	-335
ReBet	+9.5 -111	—	+270	-360
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	53.5 -120	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Caesars or Kalshi +9.5 at -107 (-0.2%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-0.4%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +9.5 at -110 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Kalshi 24¢ (0.1%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +285 (24¢ on the app) (-0.6%) · DraftKings +280 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +275 (-1.3%) · TOM +270 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 54

The pace number is 55.4, 1.5 pts over the market's 53.8; the model says 52.5, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 67°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $141 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +282 here against +331 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game
FPI	+5.0	+188
Sagarin	+4.0	+171
Massey	+7.0	+238
Market (19 books)	+9.5	+282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	57.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+296	+294	+0.1%
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5	-110	-106	-0.9%
Total	Over 53.0	-120	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.8 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +331 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling Green

CFB 11:00am

Bowling Green to win

our data says 76 in 100 · -290

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 9, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

Bowling Green by 9TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game

FPI

Bowling Green by 10.5

Sagarin

Bowling Green by 9

Massey

Bowling Green by 10

Nasty Number

Bowling Green by 9.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Bowling Green by 7 to Bowling Green by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

44.1on the market

Pace number

47.63.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

404 pts under the market

Massey

44.80.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 47.6, 4.1 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 44.1, 0.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-9 -114	44 -103	-320	+245
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-290 73¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-9 -105	43.5 -112	-312	+260

All 24 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-9 -114	44 -103	-320	+245
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +105 47¢	-290 73¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -109	43.5 -110	-345	+260
BetAnything	-9 -110	44 -110	-320	+250
BetMGM	-8.5 -110	43.5 -115	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-9 -114	44 -103	-320	+260
betPARX	-8.5 -109	43.5 -110	-345	+260
BetRivers	-8.5 -112	43.5 -112	-345	+260
BetUS	-9 -110	43.5 -110	-330	+270
Bovada	-9 -110	43.5 -115	-320	+260
Caesars	-9 -105	43.5 -114	-320	+250
Courtside	-8.5 -112	43.5 -113	-316	+267
DraftKings	-8.5 -112	43.5 -115	-325	+260
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-8.5 -110	43.5 -115	-330	+260
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	43.5 -115	-350	+275
Fliff	-8.5 -115	43.5 -120	-345	+260
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	43.5 -110	-350	+260
LowVig.ag	-9 -110	44 -101	-320	+260
MyBookie.ag	-9 -110	43.5 -110	-356	+276
Pinnacle	-9 -105	43.5 -112	-312	+260
Polymarket	-8.5 -108	—	-285	+270
ReBet	-9.5 -114	43.5 -116	-391	+295
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	43.5 -105	-320	+260

Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green -9.0 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bowling Green): Caesars -9 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM -8.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 53¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -112 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Bowling Green to win): Kalshi 73¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or TOM -317 (74¢ on the app) (-0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -325 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -330 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -350 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green to win · -290 (73¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Bowling Green).

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBowling Green by 9.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game
FPI	-10.5	-372
Sagarin	-9.0	-310
Massey	-10.0	-333
Market (20 books)	-9.0	-306

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	-290	-311	+1.3%
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons -9.0	-105	-101	-0.9%
Total	Under 44.0	-117	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at Oregon

CFB 2:30pm

Oregon -10

should be Oregon -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 10, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 11.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 10TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Oregon by 10on the market

FPI

Oregon by 143.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon by 132.9 pts our side

Massey

Oregon by 15.55.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon by 11.51.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Oregon. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Oregon's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58TOM

Model number

52.45.6 pts under the market

Pace number

58.80.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

63.85.8 pts over the market

Massey

59.91.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 58.8, 0.5 pts over the market's 58.3; the model says 52.4, 5.9 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10 -115	58 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	58.5 +100	-434	+345

All 24 books

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10 -115	58 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-11 -112	58.5 -107	-435	+335
BetAnything	-10 -110	58 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-10.5 -105	58.5 -105	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-10 -115	58 -110	-410	+324
betPARX	-11 -112	58.5 -107	-435	+335
BetRivers	-11 -113	58 -115	-455	+330
BetUS	-10 -115	58 -110	-410	+325
Bovada	-10.5 -110	58 -115	-450	+335
Caesars	-10.5 -108	58 -109	-440	+330
Courtside	-10.5 -108	57.5 -113	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -108	57.5 -115	-410	+320
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	58 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -108	57.5 -115	-410	+315
Fliff	-10.5 -115	57.5 -125	-445	+325
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -115	58.5 -105	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-10 -111	58 -108	-410	+324
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	58 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	58.5 +100	-434	+345
Polymarket	-10.5 +104	58.5 +108	-400	+376
ReBet	-11 -109	58.5 -111	-420	+310
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	57.5 -115	-500	+360

Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oregon): BetMGM -10.5 at -105 (0.5%) · TOM -10 at -115 (0.1%) · Kalshi, FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars -10.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.3%) · Fanatics -10.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -410 at FanDuel

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): Kalshi 79¢ (-0.5%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or TOM -410 (-0.7%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions -425 (79¢ on the app) (-1.3%) · Caesars -440 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 58.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 54°F.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Oregon, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $242 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-339
FPI	-14.0	-475
Sagarin	-13.0	-428
Massey	-15.5	-551
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -10.0	-115	-116	+0.1%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-410	-392	priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.5 consensus; total 58.0 here against 58.3 consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West Virginia

CFB 11:00am

Arizona -3.5

should be Arizona -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Arizona by 3.5TOM, -104

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game

FPI

Arizona by 4

Sagarin

Arizona by 1.5

Massey

Arizona by 6

Nasty Number

Arizona by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 3 to Arizona by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

61TOM

Model number

61.90.9 pts over the market

Pace number

55.75.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.91.1 pts under the market

Massey

58.42.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 55.7, 5.2 pts under the market's 60.9; the model says 61.9, 1 pt over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 61. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -104	61 -105	+145	-175
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	60.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -106	61 -104	+156	-178

All 24 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+3.5 -104	61 -105	+145	-175
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	60.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3 -105	60.5 -113	+132	-165
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	61 -110	+151	-175
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	60.5 -115	+135	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -104	61 -105	+153	-175
betPARX	+3 -105	60.5 -113	+132	-165
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	60.5 -114	+130	-165
BetUS	+3.5 -110	61 -110	+150	-175
Bovada	+3.5 -110	60.5 -115	+150	-175
Caesars	+3.5 -109	61.5 -107	+147	-176
Courtside	+3.5 -108	60.5 -113	+148	-171
DraftKings	+3.5 -108	60.5 -115	+145	-175
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	61 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -114	61.5 -106	+134	-162
Fliff	+3.5 -120	60.5 -120	+140	-175
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	+130	-165
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -102	61 -103	+153	-175
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	61 -110	+146	-181
Pinnacle	+3.5 -106	61 -104	+156	-178
Polymarket	+3.5 -104	61.5 +108	+156	-163
ReBet	+3.5 -111	61 -114	+146	-181
theScore Bet	+3.5 -110	60.5 -110	+145	-170

Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -3.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arizona): BetMGM -3.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 50¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars -3.5 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arizona to win · -160 at BetMGM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Arizona to win): BetMGM -160 (0.4%) · FanDuel -162 (0.1%) · Kalshi 61¢ (-0.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, TOM or Caesars -175 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 61

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game
FPI	+4.0	+172
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	+6.0	+198
Market (20 books)	+3.5	+152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.0	59.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	-160	-163	+0.4%
Spread	Arizona Wildcats -3.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Total	Under 61.0	-115	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas State

CFB 2:30pm

Houston +2.5

should be Houston +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game

FPI

Houston by 0.52.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Houston by 0.52.9 pts our side

Massey

Kansas State by 63.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 20.6 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Houston. Massey at Kansas State by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

53.21.8 pts under the market

Pace number

55.70.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

63.58.5 pts over the market

Massey

57.82.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 55.7, 0.4 pts over the market's 55.3; the model says 53.2, 2.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	55.5 -102	-131	+116

All 24 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-137	+112
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -105	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-137	+117
betPARX	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-137	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -112	55 -114	-139	+112
BetUS	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-145	+120
Courtside	-2.5 -110	54.5 -122	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	55.5 -102	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	55 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	55.5 -106	-137	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	55.5 -105	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	55 -108	-137	+117
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	55 -110	-138	+113
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	55.5 -102	-131	+116
Polymarket	-2.5 -108	55.5 +108	-127	+122
ReBet	-2.5 -116	55 -114	-138	+113
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	54.5 -120	-130	+110

Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +2.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Houston): BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.7%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

Houston to win · +117 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Houston to win): Caesars +120 (1.1%) · TOM +117 (0.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +114 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 55.5

The pace number is 55.7, 0.4 pts over the market's 55.3; the model says 53.2, 2.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Houston, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	-6.0	-204
Market (20 books)	-2.5	-131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	+117	+115	+0.4%
Spread	Houston Cougars +2.5	-105	-105	+0.0%
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.3 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana Tech

CFB 6:30pm

Louisiana +3

should be Louisiana +3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Louisiana Tech by 3TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game

FPI

Louisiana Tech by 21.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 52 pts against us

Massey

Louisiana Tech by 2.50.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisiana Tech by 30.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Louisiana. Sagarin at Louisiana Tech by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Louisiana is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

Model number

48.30.3 pts over the market

Pace number

546 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.54.5 pts over the market

Massey

53.55.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 54, 5.9 pts over the market's 48.1; the model says 48.3, 0.2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-3 -110	48 -112	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-3 -105	48 -108	-146	+129

All 23 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-3 -110	48 -112	-150	+125
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-3 -109	48.5 -107	-152	+123
BetAnything	-3 -115	48 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-3 -115	48.5 -105	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	48 -112	-150	+130
betPARX	-3 -109	48.5 -107	-152	+123
BetRivers	-3 -110	48.5 -108	-152	+123
BetUS	-3 -115	48 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -110	48 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -113	48 -108	-152	+128
Courtside	-3 -110	47.5 -122	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -112	48.5 -102	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -110	48 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	48.5 -110	-152	+126
Fliff	-3.5 -105	48.5 -115	-160	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	48.5 -105	-150	+125
LowVig.ag	-3 -106	48 -110	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	48 -110	-153	+125
Pinnacle	-3 -105	48 -108	-146	+129
Polymarket	—	47.5 -108	-138	+133
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	48.5 +100	-145	+125

Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +3.0 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): BetMGM +3 at -105 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.3%) · Caesars +3 at -107 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +3 at -108 (-0.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Louisiana to win · +125 at FanDuel

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +130 (-0.5%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +128 (42¢ on the app) (-0.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +126 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 43¢ (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.4 away from Louisiana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana Tech by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game
FPI	-2.0	-115
Sagarin	-5.0	-185
Massey	-2.5	-120
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +3.0	-105	-105	+0.1%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+125	+133	-1.5%
Total	Over 48.0	-112	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at Army

CFB 11:00am

Tulane +3.5

should be Tulane +3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Army →

Market

Army by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game

FPI

Army by 2.50.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Army by 62.5 pts against us

Massey

Tulane by 0.54.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Army by 3.50.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Tulane. Sagarin at Army by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

Model number

53.64.6 pts over the market

Pace number

47.41.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.51.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.14.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 47.4, 1.3 pts under the market's 48.7; the model says 53.6, 4.9 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	49 -110	-176	+146
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	49 -102	-173	+152

All 24 books

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	49 -110	-176	+146
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -108	47.5 -113	-165	+133
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	49 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	49 -110	-176	+154
betPARX	-3.5 -108	47.5 -113	-165	+133
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	47.5 -115	-165	+133
BetUS	-3.5 -110	49 -110	-180	+155
Bovada	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -107	48.5 -110	-173	+146
Courtside	-3.5 -108	48.5 -108	-171	+148
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	48.5 -110	-175	+145
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	48.5 -115	-162	+134
Fliff	-3.5 -115	48.5 -115	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	47.5 -110	-165	+135
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -111	49 -108	-176	+154
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-191	+154
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	49 -102	-173	+152
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	—	-156	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -116	49 -111	-191	+154
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 -105	-165	+140

Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +3.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulane): TOM +3.5 at -105 (0.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · +146 at Caesars

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Tulane to win): BetMGM +150 (-0.5%) · Caesars, TOM, Kalshi, DraftKings or Fanatics +146 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-2.5%) · FanDuel +134 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $306 available; Under 47.5, only $67 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game
FPI	-2.5	-126
Sagarin	-6.0	-202
Massey	+0.5	+102
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-168

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	45.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +3.5	-105	-105	+0.0%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+146	+153	-1.1%
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 3.2.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan State

CFB 2:30pm

Michigan State +2.5

should be Michigan State +2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Illinois by 2.5TOM, -101

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game

FPI

a pick'em2.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Illinois by 20.6 pts our side

Massey

Illinois by 3.50.8 pts against us

Nasty Number

Illinois by 2.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Michigan State. Massey at Illinois by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

48.20.3 pts under the market

Pace number

51.12.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

57.59 pts over the market

Massey

48.7on the market

The pace number is 51.1, 2.7 pts over the market's 48.4; the model says 48.2, 0.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 -101	48.5 -115	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	49.5 +109 46¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	48.5 -103	+121	-136

All 24 books

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+2.5 -101	48.5 -115	+117	-137
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	49.5 +109 46¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -104	48 -112	+120	-148
BetAnything	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	48.5 -115	+117	-137
betPARX	+2.5 -104	48 -112	+120	-148
BetRivers	+2.5 -105	48 -113	+120	-150
BetUS	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+2.5 +100	48 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -107	48.5 -109	+115	-136
Courtside	+2.5 +100	48.5 -103	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	48.5 -105	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -115	48 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	48.5 -112	+112	-134
Fliff	+2.5 -110	48.5 -115	+115	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	48.5 -105	+120	-145
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +101	48.5 -114	+117	-137
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -105	48 -110	+113	-139
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	48.5 -103	+121	-136
Polymarket	+2.5 +108	47.5	+127	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -111	48 -116	+113	-138
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	48.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +2.5 · -101 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.5%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +2.5 at +101 (0.4%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.8%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +117 at TOM

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): BetMGM or DraftKings +120 (0.0%) · Kalshi 44¢ (-0.3%) · TOM +117 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +115 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +113 (45¢ on the app) (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48.5

The pace number is 51.1, 2.7 pts over the market's 48.4; the model says 48.2, 0.3 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 75°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	+2.0	+115
Massey	+3.5	+150
Market (20 books)	+2.5	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	52.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +2.5	-101	-101	+0.0%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+117	+120	-0.6%
Total	Over 48.5	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at Nebraska

CFB 11:00am

Indiana -8

should be Indiana -8 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 8, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Indiana by 8TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game

FPI

Indiana by 6

Sagarin

Indiana by 6.5

Massey

Indiana by 11

Nasty Number

Indiana by 80.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

51.12.6 pts over the market

Pace number

53.75.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

54.35.8 pts over the market

Massey

52.13.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.7, 5.4 pts over the market's 48.3; the model says 51.1, 2.8 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+8 -107	48.5 -110	+265	-355
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+9 -108	48.5 -102	+281	-342

All 24 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+8 -107	48.5 -110	+265	-355
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -112	48 -110	+265	-360
BetAnything	+8.5 -110	48 -110	+280	-350
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	48.5 -105	+275	-350
BetOnline.ag	+8 -107	48 -110	+285	-355
betPARX	+8.5 -112	48 -110	+265	-360
BetRivers	+8.5 -113	48 -112	+265	-360
BetUS	+9 -110	48 -110	+255	-310
Bovada	+9 -110	48 -120	+275	-350
Caesars	+8.5 -113	48 -112	+270	-350
Courtside	+8.5 -115	48.5 -103	+277	-331
DraftKings	+8.5 -115	48.5 -105	+270	-340
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	48 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	48.5 -105	+270	-345
Fliff	+8.5 -115	48.5 -110	+270	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	47.5 -115	+260	-350
LowVig.ag	+8 -103	48 -108	+285	-355
MyBookie.ag	+8 -110	48 -110	+265	-350
Pinnacle	+9 -108	48.5 -102	+281	-342
Polymarket	+8.5 -104	47.5 -117	+285	-300
ReBet	+8 -114	48 -114	+265	-350
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	48.5 -105	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -8.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Indiana): DraftKings -8.5 at -105 (-2.1%) · Caesars -8.5 at -108 (-2.8%) · TOM -8 at -113 (-2.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -8.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 50¢ (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · -322 (75¢) at Kalshi

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Kalshi 75¢ (-1.9%) · DraftKings -340 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -345 (-3.2%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars -350 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM -355 (76¢ on the app) (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Nebraska).

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +277 here against +317 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game
FPI	+6.0	+199
Sagarin	+6.5	+213
Massey	+11.0	+387
Market (20 books)	+8.0	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -8.0	-113	-101	-2.9%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	-322	-290	-1.9%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.7 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +317 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at Northwestern

CFB 11:30am

Northwestern -35

should be Northwestern -36 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 35.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 35TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game

FPI

Northwestern by 38.5

Sagarin

Northwestern by 37.5

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 361 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

Model number

57.65.1 pts over the market

Pace number

51.70.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.46.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 51.7, 1.1 pts under the market's 52.8; the model says 57.6, 4.8 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35 -112	52.5 -117	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-35 -110	52.5 -115	—	—

All 23 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35 -112	52.5 -117	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-35.5 -112	53.5 -108	—	—
BetAnything	-35 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-35.5 -110	52.5 -115	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35 -112	52.5 -117	—	—
betPARX	-35.5 -112	53.5 -108	—	—
BetRivers	-36 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
BetUS	-35 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-35 -115	52.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-35 -110	53.5 -112	—	—
Courtside	-35.5 -103	53.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -105	53.5 -112	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-35.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54.5 49¢ -104 all-in	—	4¢ +1567 all-in
Fanatics	-35.5 -105	53.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -108	52.5 -118	—	—
Fliff	-35.5 -115	53.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-35.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-35 -108	52.5 -116	—	—
Pinnacle	-35 -110	52.5 -115	—	—
Polymarket	—	53.5 -104	—	—
ReBet	-35.5 -127	53.5 -114	—	—
theScore Bet	-34.5 -125	53.5 -110	—	—

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -35.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): Caesars -35 at -110 (0.8%) · TOM -35 at -112 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -35.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -35.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.3%) · BetMGM -35.5 at -110 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Northwestern to win · —

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Kalshi or DraftKings Predictions — (97¢ on the app) (0.1%) · FanDuel — (-0.4%).

Off the band

The total · 53

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Northwestern).

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $129 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 3630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game
FPI	-38.5	—
Sagarin	-37.5	—
Massey	rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)	-35.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -35.0	-112	-113	+0.3%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	—	—	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-103	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App State

CFB 12:00pm

Under 46

weather: 18 mph wind and 92% chance of rain, worth about 3.8 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game

FPI

App State by 10

Sagarin

App State by 9

Massey

App State by 3

Nasty Number

App State by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

Model number

44.61.4 pts under the market

Pace number

52.36.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.11.1 pts over the market

Massey

53.57.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.3, 6.6 pts over the market's 45.7; the model says 44.6, 1.1 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 51 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	46 -110	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -111	45.5 -107	-373	+304

All 24 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	46 -110	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-10 -108	45.5 -112	-385	+285
BetAnything	-10 -110	46 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	46 -110	-375	+299
betPARX	-10 -108	45.5 -112	-385	+285
BetRivers	-10 -109	45.5 -114	-385	+285
BetUS	-10 -110	46 -110	-375	+300
Bovada	-10 -105	45.5 -110	-390	+295
Caesars	-10 -110	45.5 -113	-380	+300
Courtside	-10 -106	46.5 -106	-364	+303
DraftKings	-10 -108	46.5 -108	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -115	46 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -115	45.5 -114	-375	+290
Fliff	-9.5 -125	45.5 -120	-395	+295
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	45.5 -110	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -111	46 -108	-375	+299
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	46 -110	-410	+310
Pinnacle	-9.5 -111	45.5 -107	-373	+304
Polymarket	-9.5 -108	45.5 -104	-335	+317
ReBet	-10 -111	46 -114	-410	+310
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	45.5 -115	-360	+280

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Old Dominion +9.5 · 49¢ on the app (-105 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Old Dominion): Caesars +10 at -109 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings +10 at -112 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Old Dominion to win · +285 at TOM

We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Old Dominion to win): DraftKings Predictions, Caesars or BetMGM +300 (23¢ on the app) (-0.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +296 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +290 (-1.4%) · TOM +285 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 45.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 55°F, 92% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game
FPI	-10.0	-328
Sagarin	-9.0	-306
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (20 books)	-9.5	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5	-105	-100	-1.2%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+285	+313	-1.7%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 5.8.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East Carolina

CFB 12:00pm

Under 46.5

weather: 15 mph wind and 81% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore East Carolina →

Market

East Carolina by 10TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game

FPI

East Carolina by 11

Sagarin

East Carolina by 8.5

Massey

East Carolina by 15

Nasty Number

East Carolina by 10.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

Model number

46.7on the market

Pace number

47.71.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

48.52 pts over the market

Massey

47.30.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 47.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.7, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -112	46.5 -108	-390	+300
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -126 54¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -109	46.5 -111	-396	+320

All 24 books

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-10 -112	46.5 -108	-390	+300
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -126 54¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-10 -108	46.5 -112	-400	+300
BetAnything	-10 -110	46 -110	-400	+320
BetMGM	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-10 -112	46.5 -108	-390	+310
betPARX	-10 -108	46.5 -112	-400	+300
BetRivers	-10 -109	46.5 -114	-400	+300
BetUS	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-390	+312
Bovada	-10 -115	46.5 -115	-415	+310
Caesars	-10 -109	46.5 -109	-380	+295
Courtside	-10 -108	46.5 -108	-369	+308
DraftKings	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-380	+300
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-400	+310
FanDuel	-9.5 -114	46.5 -112	-400	+310
Fliff	-10.5 -105	46.5 -120	-410	+300
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	46.5 -110	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-10 -108	46.5 -106	-390	+310
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	46.5 -110	-415	+307
Pinnacle	-10 -109	46.5 -111	-396	+320
Polymarket	-10.5 +108	45.5 -113	-355	+335
ReBet	-10 -116	46.5 -114	-441	+320
theScore Bet	-10.5 +100	46.5 -105	-380	+290

Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina -9.5 · -114 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (East Carolina): FanDuel -9.5 at -114 (-0.1%) · Caesars -10 at -109 (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -10 at -110 (-1.0%) · TOM -10 at -112 (-1.5%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 53¢ (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · -390 at TOM

We make it 78 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 78 cents fair, a play under 74. Where, best first (East Carolina to win): BetMGM -375 (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -380 (-1.0%) · TOM -390 (-1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings Predictions -400 (78¢ on the app) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46.5

The pace number is 47.7, 1.2 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.7, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward East Carolina). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $396 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onEast Carolina by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game
FPI	-11.0	-387
Sagarin	-8.5	-304
Massey	-15.0	-546
Market (20 books)	-10.0	-373

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -9.5	-114	-113	-0.1%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-390	-357	-1.5%
Total	Under 46.5	-112	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at Massachusetts

CFB 1:00pm

Miami (OH) -5.5

should be Miami (OH) -5.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Miami (OH) by 5.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 6

Massey

Miami (OH) by 12.5

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami (OH) by 2.5 to Miami (OH) by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

42.51.5 pts under the market

Pace number

52.58.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.75.7 pts over the market

Massey

50.26.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.5, 9 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 42.5, 1 pt under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 48 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+5.5 -105	44 -105	+180	-220
Kalshi	+6.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +105 47¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 +102	43.5 -109	+186	-215

All 24 books

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+5.5 -105	44 -105	+180	-220
Kalshi	+6.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +105 47¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -108	43.5 -109	+175	-220
BetAnything	+6 -110	44 -110	+175	-210
BetMGM	—	43.5 -110	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -105	44 -105	+180	-210
betPARX	+5.5 -108	43.5 -109	+175	-220
BetRivers	+5.5 -109	43.5 -112	+170	-220
BetUS	+6 -110	44 -110	+180	-210
Bovada	+6 -110	43.5 -110	+180	-220
Caesars	+6.5 -110	43.5 -105	+190	-250
Courtside	+6 -108	43.5 -113	+189	-220
DraftKings	+6 -110	43.5 -115	+185	-225
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in
Fanatics	+6 -110	43.5 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -104	42.5 -114	+184	-225
Fliff	+5.5 -115	43.5 -120	+180	-230
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	43.5 -110	+175	-220
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -101	44 -103	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	—	43.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+5.5 +102	43.5 -109	+186	-215
Polymarket	+6.5 -104	—	+194	-203
ReBet	+5 -116	43.5 -114	+181	-228
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	43.5 -115	+170	-200

Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -5.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (-2.6%) · TOM -5.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -6 at -110 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.3%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -118 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Miami (OH) to win · -220 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): Kalshi 67¢ (-2.2%) · TOM -220 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (-2.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -225 (-2.8%) · Caesars -250 (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Miami (OH)). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -6.5, only $445 available; Over 43.5, only $111 available; Under 43.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

Caesars still has Massachusetts +6.5 while Pinnacle is at Miami (OH) by 5.5.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	+6.0	+205
Massey	+12.5	+417
Market (20 books)	+5.5	+188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami (OH) RedHawks -5.5	-115	-102	-2.9%
Moneyline	Miami (OH) RedHawks ML	-220	-198	-2.4%
Total	Over 44.0	-105	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Miami (OH) RedHawks since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 5.6.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at Akron

CFB 2:30pm

Akron +5

should be Akron +5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 5, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Akron →

Market

Eastern Michigan by 5TOM, -106

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game

FPI

Eastern Michigan by 3.5

Sagarin

Eastern Michigan by 2.5

Massey

Eastern Michigan by 2

Nasty Number

Eastern Michigan by 50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Eastern Michigan by 5.5 to Eastern Michigan by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

Model number

55.83.8 pts over the market

Pace number

50.51.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.16.9 pts under the market

Massey

50.71.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 50.5, 1.5 pts under the market's 52; the model says 55.8, 3.8 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+5 -106	52 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -116 52¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+181 34¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -111	52 -103	+177	-204

All 24 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+5 -106	52 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -116 52¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+181 34¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -110	52.5 -108	+165	-210
BetAnything	+5 -110	52 -110	+175	-210
BetMGM	+5.5 -115	51.5 -115	+180	-220
BetOnline.ag	+5 -106	52 -115	+180	-210
betPARX	+5.5 -110	52.5 -108	+165	-210
BetRivers	+5.5 -112	52.5 -110	+165	-210
BetUS	+5 -110	52 -110	+180	-210
Bovada	+5 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+5.5 -106	52 -108	+178	-213
Courtside	+5.5 -110	51.5 -113	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	51.5 -115	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -115	51.5 -110	+175	-215
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	52.5 -104	+172	-210
Fliff	+5.5 -120	51.5 -120	+170	-220
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	52.5 -110	+165	-210
LowVig.ag	+5 -102	52 -114	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	52 -110	+179	-224
Pinnacle	+5.5 -111	52 -103	+177	-204
Polymarket	+5.5	51.5 -104	+186	-194
ReBet	+5 -111	51.5 -116	+179	-224
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	52.5 -105	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +5.0 · -106 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Akron): Caesars +5.5 at -106 (-0.3%) · TOM +5 at -106 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi +5.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +181 (34¢) at Kalshi

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Akron to win): Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +181 (-0.3%) · Caesars +178 (-0.7%) · Fanatics +175 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +172 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM +171 (35¢ on the app) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 52

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Eastern Michigan).

Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -5.5, only $64 available; Akron Zips +5.5, only $42 available; Under 51.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEastern Michigan by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game
FPI	+3.5	+159
Sagarin	+2.5	+128
Massey	+2.0	+118
Market (20 books)	+5.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +5.0	-106	-101	-1.2%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+181	+184	-0.3%
Total	Under 52.0	-105	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at Toledo

CFB 2:30pm

Toledo -18

should be Toledo -19.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 18.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 18TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 19.5

Sagarin

Toledo by 20.5

Massey

Toledo by 21

Nasty Number

Toledo by 19.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

55.50.5 pts over the market

Pace number

56.21.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

45.89.2 pts under the market

Massey

57.32.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 56.2, 0.8 pts over the market's 55.4; the model says 55.5, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-18 -111	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5	54.5 -116 52¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Pinnacle	-18.5 -110	55.5 -104	-1089	+723

All 24 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-18 -111	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5	54.5 -116 52¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Bally Bet	-19 -109	55.5 -109	-1667	+800
BetAnything	-18.5 -110	55 -110	-1200	+750
BetMGM	-19.5 -110	55.5 -105	-1400	+775
BetOnline.ag	-18 -111	55 -110	-1100	+709
betPARX	-19 -109	55.5 -109	-1667	+800
BetRivers	-19 -110	55.5 -112	-1667	+800
BetUS	-18.5 -110	55 -110	-1100	+700
Bovada	-19 -110	55 -115	-1200	+700
Caesars	-18.5 -109	55 -112	-1250	+750
Courtside	-18.5 -110	55.5 -103	-1032	+733
DraftKings	-18.5 -112	55.5 -105	-1100	+700
DraftKings Predictions	-18.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	91¢ -1328 all-in	10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics	-19 -110	54.5 -110	-1200	+750
FanDuel	-19.5 -105	55.5 -102	-1450	+810
Fliff	-19.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1435	+765
Hard Rock Bet	-18.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1600	+800
LowVig.ag	-18 -107	55 -108	-1100	+709
MyBookie.ag	-18.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1408	+770
Pinnacle	-18.5 -110	55.5 -104	-1089	+723
Polymarket	-17.5	55.5 +108	-1011	+900
ReBet	—	55.5 -114	-1408	+770
theScore Bet	-19.5 -110	55.5 -105	-1400	+750

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -18.0 · -111 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): TOM -18 at -111 (0.4%) · Caesars -18.5 at -109 (-0.6%) · DraftKings -18.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · Fanatics -19 at -110 (-1.6%).

Blowout line

Toledo to win · -1200 at Fanatics

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -1087 (-2.1%) · Fanatics -1200 (-2.8%) · Caesars -1250 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 91¢ on the app (-1328 all-in) (-3.5%) · BetMGM -1400 (-3.8%).

Off the band

The total · 55.5

The pace number is 56.2, 0.8 pts over the market's 55.4; the model says 55.5, 0.1 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Buffalo).

Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets -19.5, only $57 available; Toledo Rockets -17.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.6 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 19.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game
FPI	-19.5	-853
Sagarin	-20.5	-969
Massey	-21.0	-1060
Market (20 books)	-18.0	-1032

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets -18.0	-111	-113	+0.4%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	-1200	-853	priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Buffalo Bulls since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.6 consensus; total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North Texas

CFB 2:30pm

Charlotte +29

should be Charlotte +28.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 29.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore North Texas →

Market

North Texas by 29TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game

FPI

North Texas by 26

Sagarin

North Texas by 27.5

Massey

North Texas by 27

Nasty Number

North Texas by 28.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 29. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM

Model number

55.72.8 pts under the market

Pace number

61.22.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

634.5 pts over the market

Massey

67.69.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 61.2, 3.2 pts over the market's 58; the model says 55.7, 2.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-29 -110	58.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -121 53¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-29.5 -108	58 -113	—	—

All 23 books

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-29 -110	58.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -121 53¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Bally Bet	-28.5 -108	58.5 -103	—	+1400
BetAnything	-29 -110	58 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-29.5 -110	57.5 -115	—	+2200
BetOnline.ag	-29 -110	58.5 -112	—	—
betPARX	-28.5 -108	58.5 -103	—	+1400
BetRivers	-28.5 -110	58.5 -104	—	—
BetUS	-29 -110	58 -110	—	—
Bovada	-29.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
Caesars	-29.5 -106	57.5 -113	—	+1500
Courtside	-29.5 -106	57.5 -122	—	+1878
DraftKings	-29.5 -108	58.5 -102	—	+1700
DraftKings Predictions	-29.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	—	4¢ +1567 all-in
Fanatics	-29 -110	58.5 -105	—	+1800
FanDuel	-29.5 -108	57.5 -112	—	+2200
Fliff	-28.5 -120	57.5 -125	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-28.5 -110	57.5 -120	—	+1400
LowVig.ag	-29 -106	58.5 -110	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-29 -110	58 -110	—	+1455
Pinnacle	-29.5 -108	58 -113	—	—
ReBet	-28.5 -111	58 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-29.5 -105	57.5 -120	—	+1500

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +29.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): BetMGM +29.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +29.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM +29 at -110 (-1.5%) · Caesars +29.5 at -114 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +2243 (4¢) at Kalshi

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +2243 (-1.1%) · Fanatics +1800 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +1700 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 4¢ on the app (+1567 all-in) (-2.8%) · Caesars +1500 (-3.0%).

Off the band

The total · 58

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Across the books: opened -25.5, now -29.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $2 available; Under 57.5, only $196 available; North Texas Mean Green ML, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.3 consensus.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Texas by 28.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game
FPI	-26.0	-1966
Sagarin	-27.5	-2294
Massey	-27.0	-2103
Market (20 books)	-29.0	-4092

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	65.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +29.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+2243	+3009	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.5	-112	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.7.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.3 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.0 consensus.

The line is -29.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia Tech

CFB 2:30pm

Duke -4.5

should be Duke -5.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 5.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Duke by 4.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Duke by 6.5

FPI

Duke by 7

Sagarin

Duke by 0.5

Massey

Duke by 2

Nasty Number

Duke by 5.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Duke by 7 to Duke by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

Model number

45.5on the market

Pace number

51.76.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.19.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.69.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.7, 6.5 pts over the market's 45.2; the model says 45.5, 0.3 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	45.5 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -103 49¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 -114	45 -109	+194	-225

All 24 books

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	45.5 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	45.5 -103 49¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Bally Bet	+6 -106	45 -110	+180	-225
BetAnything	+5 -110	45.5 -110	+175	-215
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	45.5 -115	+180	-210
betPARX	+6 -106	45 -110	+180	-225
BetRivers	+6 -110	45 -112	+175	-230
BetUS	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+183	-215
Bovada	+6 -110	45 -110	+190	-230
Caesars	+5.5 -108	45.5 -107	+187	-225
Courtside	+5.5 -112	45.5 -103	+189	-220
DraftKings	+5.5 -112	45.5 -105	+185	-225
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics	+6 -110	45 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -105	45.5 -106	+184	-225
Fliff	+6.5 -125	45.5 -115	+185	-235
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -115	44.5 -115	+180	-220
LowVig.ag	+4.5 -101	45.5 -114	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	+5 -110	46 -110	+163	-201
Pinnacle	+6.5 -114	45 -109	+194	-225
Polymarket	+5.5	45.5 +100	+194	-203
ReBet	+5.5 -114	46 -114	+189	-238
theScore Bet	+5.5 -105	45.5 -105	+190	-225

Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke -4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Duke): TOM -4.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -5.5 at -108 (-2.3%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · Kalshi or Caesars -5.5 at -112 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Duke to win · -210 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Duke to win): TOM -210 (-2.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars -225 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 68¢ (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 68¢ on the app (-234 all-in) (-4.5%).

Not Nasty

The total · 45

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 70°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Georgia Tech).

Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +5.5, only $120 available; Under 45.5, only $307 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +6.1 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +208 consensus.

BetOnline.ag still has Duke -4.5 while Pinnacle is at Duke by 6.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 5.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.5	+210
FPI	+7.0	+236
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	+2.0	+116
Market (20 books)	+4.5	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils -4.5	-115	-106	-2.0%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	-210	-190	-2.2%
Total	Over 45.5	-115	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 6.6.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +6.1 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +208 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at Navy

CFB 2:30pm

Navy -1

should be Navy -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 1, the Nasty Number says Navy by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Navy →

Market

Navy by 1TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Navy by 0.5

Massey

Navy by 6.5

Nasty Number

Navy by 1.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 2.5 to Navy by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

Model number

47.10.4 pts under the market

Pace number

48.91.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.52 pts over the market

Massey

49.52 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.9, 1.3 pts over the market's 47.5; the model says 47.1, 0.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-1 -117	47.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-1.5	48.5 +105 47¢	-121 53¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -102	47.5 -109	-123	+109

All 24 books

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-1 -117	47.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-1.5	48.5 +105 47¢	-121 53¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2 -109	47.5 -117	-130	+105
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-1.5 -115	48.5 -105	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-1 -117	47.5 -110	-120	+100
betPARX	-2 -109	47.5 -117	-130	+105
BetRivers	-2 -110	47.5 -118	-130	+105
BetUS	-1.5 -110	47 -110	-120	+100
Bovada	-2 -110	47.5 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5 -117	47.5 -110	-127	+108
Courtside	-1.5 -115	47.5 -113	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	47.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-2.5 -108	47.5 -114	-134	+112
Fliff	-2.5 -110	47.5 -125	-130	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-130	+105
LowVig.ag	-1 -113	47.5 -108	-120	+100
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-127	+104
Pinnacle	-2.5 -102	47.5 -109	-123	+109
Polymarket	-1.5 -108	47.5	-117	+113
ReBet	-2 -111	47.5 -114	-127	+104
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	47.5 -110	-120	+100

Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -1.0 · -117 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): TOM -1 at -117 (-2.4%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-3.3%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -1.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -117 (52¢ on the app) (-3.8%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -108 (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -120 at TOM

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Navy to win): TOM -120 (-1.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -121 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -125 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -127 (54¢ on the app) (-3.1%) · FanDuel -134 (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 47.5

The pace number is 48.9, 1.3 pts over the market's 47.5; the model says 47.1, 0.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen -1.5, only $25 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane +1.5, only $15 available; Over 47.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.1 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Navy -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Navy by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-0.5	+100
Massey	-6.5	-226
Market (20 books)	-1.0	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -1.0	-117	-106	-2.4%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-120	-112	-1.7%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 6.0.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.1 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre Dame

CFB 2:30pm

Stanford +40

should be Stanford +38.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 40.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 40TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 40.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 35

Massey

Notre Dame by 35

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 38.51.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

56.11.1 pts over the market

Pace number

54.40.6 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.62.4 pts under the market

Massey

55.70.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.4, 0.3 pts under the market's 54.7; the model says 56.1, 1.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-40 -110	55 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-39.5 -102	54.5 -107	—	—

All 23 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-40 -110	55 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-39 -108	54.5 -109	—	—
BetAnything	-40 -110	55 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-39.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-40.5 -106	55 -112	—	—
betPARX	-39 -108	54.5 -109	—	—
BetRivers	-39 -114	54.5 -110	—	—
BetUS	-40.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-39.5 -105	54.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-39.5 -108	54.5 -113	—	—
Courtside	-39.5 -110	54.5 -116	—	—
DraftKings	-39.5 -112	55.5 -102	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-39.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-39.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-39.5 -105	55.5 -105	—	—
Fliff	-39.5 -115	54.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-39.5 -105	54.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-40.5 -102	55 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-39.5 -102	54.5 -107	—	—
Polymarket	—	55.5 +100	—	—
ReBet	-40.5 -114	54.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-39.5 -105	55.5 +100	—	—

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stanford +40.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Stanford): TOM +40 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +39.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +39.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars +39.5 at -112 (1.1%) · FanDuel +39.5 at -115 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 54.4, 0.3 pts under the market's 54.7; the model says 56.1, 1.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -36.0, now -39.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Notre Dame).

Kalshi thin: Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $158 available; Stanford Cardinal ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.6 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 38.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	-40.5	—
Sagarin	-35.0	—
Massey	-35.0	—
Market (19 books)	-40.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Stanford Cardinal +40.0	-110	-121	+2.3%
Total	Under 55.0	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.6 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at Oklahoma

CFB 2:30pm · neutral

Texas -8

should be Texas -7.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Texas by 8TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

Texas by 8.5

FPI

Texas by 13.5

Sagarin

Texas by 7

Massey

Texas by 7.5

Nasty Number

Texas by 7.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM

Model number

37.72.3 pts under the market

Pace number

44.54.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

35.84.2 pts under the market

Massey

40.60.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 44.5, 5.4 pts over the market's 39.1; the model says 37.7, 1.4 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+8 -113	40 -110	+250	-325
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	40.5 +101 48¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -106	39 -112	+263	-316

All 23 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+8 -113	40 -110	+250	-325
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	40.5 +101 48¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -113	39 -110	+240	-315
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	39 -110	+255	-325
BetMGM	+7.5 -110	39.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+8 -113	39.5 -115	+263	-325
betPARX	+7.5 -113	39 -110	+240	-315
BetRivers	+7.5 -114	39 -112	+240	-315
BetUS	+8 -115	39 -110	+265	-325
Bovada	+7.5 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-330
Caesars	+7.5 -114	39.5 -108	+255	-320
Courtside	+7.5 -115	38.5 -118	+267	-316
DraftKings	+7.5 -115	39.5 -105	+260	-325
Fanatics	+7.5 -110	39.5 -110	+260	-330
FanDuel	+7.5 -115	38.5 -115	+250	-315
Fliff	+7.5 -120	39.5 -115	+250	-330
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -110	38.5 -115	+240	-325
LowVig.ag	+8 -109	39.5 -114	+263	-325
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	39 -110	+265	-348
Pinnacle	+7.5 -106	39 -112	+263	-316
Polymarket	+7.5 +100	40.5 +100	+285	-300
ReBet	+8 -114	39.5 -114	+260	-340
theScore Bet	+7.5 -110	38.5 -110	+270	-340

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +8.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oklahoma): Kalshi +7.5 at 50¢ (-2.1%) · TOM +8 at -113 (-2.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · Caesars +7.5 at -114 (-3.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +7.5 at -115 (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oklahoma to win · +266 (26¢) at Kalshi

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): Kalshi 26¢ (-1.0%) · BetMGM, DraftKings or Fanatics +260 (-1.5%) · Caesars +255 (-1.9%) · FanDuel or TOM +250 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 39

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Oklahoma).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.5 consensus.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +261 here against +295 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.5	+304
FPI	+13.5	+459
Sagarin	+7.0	+233
Massey	+7.5	+265
Market (20 books)	+8.0	+261

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	38.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners +8.0	-113	-103	-2.3%
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners ML	+266	+280	-1.0%
Total	Under 40.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 40.0 here against 39.1 consensus; moneyline +261 here against +295 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at Temple

CFB 2:45pm

Temple -3.5

should be Temple -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Temple by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game

FPI

Temple by 5.5

Sagarin

Temple by 3

Massey

Temple by 1

Nasty Number

Temple by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

Model number

56.62.1 pts over the market

Pace number

54.5on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

61.26.7 pts over the market

Massey

58.23.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.5, 0.3 pts over the market's 54.2; the model says 56.6, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -105	54 -116	-175	+153

All 24 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+135
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-177	+155
betPARX	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+135
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	54.5 -113	-175	+135
BetUS	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Bovada	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-190	+154
Courtside	-3.5 -112	54.5 -113	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	54.5 -115	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-176	+146
Fliff	-3.5 -115	54.5 -120	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	54.5 -110	-170	+135
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	54.5 -108	-177	+155
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	55 -110	-180	+146
Pinnacle	-3.5 -105	54 -116	-175	+153
Polymarket	-3.5	55.5 +108	-170	+163
ReBet	-3.5 -111	54.5 -116	-180	+146
theScore Bet	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UConn): Kalshi or DraftKings +3.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -110 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +154 at Caesars

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (UConn to win): Caesars +154 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 38¢ (-0.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (-0.8%) · TOM or FanDuel +147 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54

The pace number is 54.5, 0.3 pts over the market's 54.2; the model says 56.6, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Temple). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Temple Owls -3.5, only $191 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTemple by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game
FPI	-5.5	-193
Sagarin	-3.0	-134
Massey	-1.0	-104
Market (20 books)	-3.5	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	59.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +3.5	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+154	+155	-0.1%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at Arkansas

CFB 3:15pm

Arkansas +13.5

should be Arkansas +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Tennessee by 13.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 14.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 11

Massey

Tennessee by 10.5

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 130.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

Model number

54.23.2 pts over the market

Pace number

52.51.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.78.7 pts over the market

Massey

57.46.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.5, 1.3 pts over the market's 51.2; the model says 54.2, 3 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	52.5	—	-564 84¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -101	51 -118	+431	-567

All 23 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	52.5	—	-564 84¢
Bally Bet	+13.5 -107	51.5 -108	+410	-625
BetAnything	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+435	-575
BetMGM	+13.5 -105	51.5 -105	+425	-600
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -107	51 -115	+415	-550
betPARX	+13.5 -107	51.5 -108	+410	-625
BetRivers	+13.5 -108	51.5 -109	+410	-625
BetUS	+13.5 -105	51 -110	+450	-600
Bovada	+13.5 -105	51.5 -110	+410	-585
Caesars	+13.5 -107	51.5 -107	+400	-560
Courtside	+13.5 -103	51.5 -103	+439	-553
DraftKings	+13.5 -105	51.5 -105	+425	-575
DraftKings Predictions	+13.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in
Fanatics	+13.5 -105	51.5 -105	+425	-575
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	51.5 -105	+400	-550
Fliff	+13.5 -110	51.5 -115	+410	-595
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -105	51.5 -110	+400	-650
LowVig.ag	+13.5 -103	51 -114	+415	-550
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	51 -110	+390	-549
Pinnacle	+13.5 -101	51 -118	+431	-567
Polymarket	+13.5 +100	51.5 -108	—	-525
theScore Bet	+13.5 +105	51.5 -105	+400	-600

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +13.5 · -107 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (-0.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +13.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars or TOM +13.5 at -107 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +425 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, Caesars or TOM +400 (18¢ on the app) (-1.1%).

Off the band

The total · 51

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $18 available; Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $2 available; Tennessee Volunteers -13.5, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +418 here against +518 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game
FPI	+14.5	+513
Sagarin	+11.0	+377
Massey	+10.5	+369
Market (19 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	58.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5	-107	-103	-0.9%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+400	+429	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-115	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: moneyline +418 here against +518 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio State

CFB 3:15pm

Ohio State -32.5

should be Ohio State -32.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 32.5.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 32.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 33.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 27.5

Massey

Ohio State by 32

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 32.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 32.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

Model number

57.20.7 pts over the market

Pace number

533.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

54.22.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.72.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 53, 3.5 pts under the market's 56.4; the model says 57.2, 0.8 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-32.5 -115	56.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-32.5 -109	56.5 -111	—	—

All 22 books

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-32.5 -115	56.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-33 -109	56 -110	—	—
BetAnything	-33 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-33.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-32.5 -115	56.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-33 -109	56 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-33 -110	56 -112	—	—
BetUS	-33 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-32.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-33.5 -107	56.5 -112	—	—
Courtside	-33.5 -106	56.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-33.5 -108	56.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-33.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 48¢ -100 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-33.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	+3000
FanDuel	-33.5 -110	56.5 -114	—	—
Fliff	-32.5 -120	56.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-32.5 -115	55.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-32.5 -111	56.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-33 -110	57 -110	—	+1700
Pinnacle	-32.5 -109	56.5 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-33.5 -110	56.5 -105	—	—

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +32.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Maryland): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +33.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · TOM +32.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +33.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.4%) · Caesars +33.5 at -114 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Maryland to win · +3397 at FanDuel

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Maryland to win): Kalshi 2¢ (-0.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3500 (-1.0%) · Fanatics +3000 (-1.5%).

Off the band

The total · 56.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Maryland).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $54 available; Under 55.5, only $170 available; Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $315 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 32.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-33.5	—
Sagarin	-27.5	-2309
Massey	-32.0	—
Market (19 books)	-32.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +32.5	-105	-100	-1.2%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+3397	+5563	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at Marshall

CFB 6:00pm

Coastal Carolina +4.5

should be Coastal Carolina +4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

Marshall by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game

FPI

Marshall by 1.5

Sagarin

Marshall by 1.5

Massey

Marshall by 5.5

Nasty Number

Marshall by 40.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

Model number

55.32.2 pts under the market

Pace number

53.34.2 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

66.69.1 pts over the market

Massey

55.71.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 53.3, 5.1 pts under the market's 58.4; the model says 55.3, 3.1 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	57.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-191 64¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	58.5 -106	-193	+168

All 23 books

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	57.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-191 64¢	+166 36¢
Bally Bet	-5 -109	58.5 -107	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	58 -110	-190	+165
BetMGM	-4.5 -105	58.5 -110	-185	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	57.5 -110	-190	+165
betPARX	-5 -109	58.5 -107	-215	+170
BetRivers	-5 -112	58.5 -108	-215	+170
BetUS	-4.5 -110	58 -110	-190	+163
Bovada	-4.5 -110	58.5 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-4.5 -107	58.5 -107	-190	+158
Courtside	-4.5 -108	58.5 -103	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4.5 -108	58.5 -105	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	57.5 -110	-195	+160
FanDuel	-4.5 -105	58.5 -108	-188	+155
Fliff	-4.5 -115	58.5 -115	-195	+155
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -115	58.5 -105	-210	+170
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -106	57.5 -108	-190	+165
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	58 -110	-200	+161
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	58.5 -106	-193	+168
Polymarket	-4.5 +100	57.5 -108	—	+170
theScore Bet	-4.5 +100	58.5 +100	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +4.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): Fanatics or TOM +4.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +4.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +4.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-1.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +4.5 at -115 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +160 at Fanatics

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 33. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): Kalshi 36¢ (-0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +160 (-1.1%) · Caesars +158 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel or BetMGM +156 (37¢ on the app) (-1.7%) · DraftKings +154 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

The total · 58.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 62°F, 98% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Marshall). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $93 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game
FPI	-1.5	-110
Sagarin	-1.5	-111
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (19 books)	-4.5	-182

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	59.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5	-110	-106	-0.8%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+160	+168	-1.1%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.4 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at Kentucky

CFB 6:00pm

Under 51

weather: 21 mph wind and 66% chance of rain, worth about 4.8 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

LSU by 9TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game

FPI

LSU by 8.5

Sagarin

LSU by 5.5

Massey

LSU by 5.5

Nasty Number

LSU by 80.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

Model number

49.11.9 pts under the market

Pace number

53.92.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.21.8 pts under the market

Massey

53.62.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.9, 3.4 pts over the market's 50.6; the model says 49.1, 1.5 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 55 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9 -110	51 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -110	50.5 -110	+282	-343

All 23 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9 -110	51 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+9 -110	51 -108	+285	-385
BetAnything	+9 -110	50.5 -110	+280	-350
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	50.5 -115	+280	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9 -110	51 -110	+274	-340
betPARX	+9 -110	51 -108	+285	-385
BetRivers	+9 -112	51 -109	+285	-400
BetUS	+9 -110	50.5 -110	+275	-340
Bovada	+8.5 -110	50.5 -110	+275	-350
Caesars	+8.5 -108	50.5 -114	+275	-345
Courtside	+8.5 -108	50.5 -113	+282	-335
DraftKings	+8.5 -108	50.5 -115	+275	-345
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	50.5 -115	+275	-350
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	50.5 -112	+260	-330
Fliff	+8.5 -115	50.5 -120	+270	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	50.5 -115	+275	-375
LowVig.ag	+9 -106	51 -108	+274	-340
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	50 -110	+270	-360
Pinnacle	+9.5 -110	50.5 -110	+282	-343
Polymarket	—	49.5 -113	—	-317
theScore Bet	+8.5 -110	50.5 -110	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kentucky): DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.1%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars +8.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · TOM +9 at -110 (-1.0%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM +8.5 at -110 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · +280 at BetMGM

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Kentucky to win): BetMGM +280 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +275 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or TOM +266 (-1.7%) · FanDuel +260 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 50.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 21 mph wind, 64°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $59 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +277 here against +320 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game
FPI	+8.5	+298
Sagarin	+5.5	+193
Massey	+5.5	+190
Market (19 books)	+9.0	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	46.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +9.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+280	+290	-0.7%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +320 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at Memphis

CFB 6:00pm

Under 55

weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 14.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game

FPI

Memphis by 20

Sagarin

Memphis by 18

Massey

Memphis by 18

Nasty Number

Memphis by 15.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

Model number

52.52.5 pts under the market

Pace number

54.10.9 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.95.9 pts over the market

Massey

58.33.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.1, 0.1 pts under the market's 54.2; the model says 52.5, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14.5 -113	55 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-15.5 -103 49¢	53.5	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Pinnacle	-14.5 -109	54 -111	-663	+490

All 23 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14.5 -113	55 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-15.5 -103 49¢	53.5	-609 85¢	+490 16¢
Bally Bet	-14 -113	54.5 -106	-835	+525
BetAnything	-14.5 -110	54.5 -110	-700	+500
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	54.5 -110	-650	+475
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -113	55 -108	-625	+461
betPARX	-14 -113	54.5 -106	-835	+525
BetRivers	-14 -115	54.5 -107	-835	+525
BetUS	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-625	+465
Bovada	-15 -110	54 -115	-700	+475
Caesars	-14.5 -109	54.5 -106	-675	+475
Courtside	-14.5 -110	54.5 -106	-623	+487
DraftKings	-14.5 -112	54.5 -108	-650	+470
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	54.5 -105	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -114	54.5 -110	-710	+490
Fliff	-14.5 -115	54.5 -115	-730	+485
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -105	54.5 -105	-850	+525
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -109	55 -106	-625	+461
MyBookie.ag	-14.5 -110	54.5 -110	-725	+480
Pinnacle	-14.5 -109	54 -111	-663	+490
Polymarket	—	53.5	-567	+525
theScore Bet	-14.5 -110	54.5 +100	-900	+550

Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis -14.5 · 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Memphis): Kalshi -15.5 at 49¢ (-0.7%) · Caesars -14.5 at -109 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -14.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.4%) · TOM -14.5 at -113 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · -609 (85¢) at Kalshi

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Memphis to win): Kalshi 85¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -650 (-1.8%) · Caesars -675 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -710 (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.1%).

Off the band

The total · 54

The pace number is 54.1, 0.1 pts under the market's 54.2; the model says 52.5, 1.7 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 33% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $80 available; Over 53.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 15.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game
FPI	-20.0	-891
Sagarin	-18.0	-746
Massey	-18.0	-748
Market (19 books)	-14.5	-614

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	56.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers -14.5	-113	-106	-1.7%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	-609	-561	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-112	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 5.3.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEP

CFB 6:00pm

UTEP +10

should be UTEP +9 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 10, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 9. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Nevada by 10TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game

FPI

Nevada by 10.5

Sagarin

Nevada by 5.5

Massey

Nevada by 6.5

Nasty Number

Nevada by 90.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Nevada by 9.5 to Nevada by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

Model number

47.81.3 pts over the market

Pace number

547.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

49.83.3 pts over the market

Massey

53.46.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 54, 6.1 pts over the market's 47.9; the model says 47.8, 0.1 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+10 -115	46.5 -125	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+10 -110	48 -110	+303	-372

All 23 books

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+10 -115	46.5 -125	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -107	48.5 -105	+290	-385
BetAnything	+10 -110	47.5 -110	+297	-375
BetMGM	+10 -115	47.5 -115	+300	-400
BetOnline.ag	+10 -115	46.5 -125	+296	-370
betPARX	+9.5 -107	48.5 -105	+290	-385
BetRivers	+9.5 -108	48.5 -107	+290	-385
BetUS	+10 -110	47.5 -110	+295	-370
Bovada	+10 -115	48 -110	+295	-390
Caesars	+10 -113	48 -110	+295	-380
Courtside	+10 -110	48.5 -106	+303	-364
DraftKings	+10 -112	47.5 -118	+295	-375
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 49¢ -104 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	48 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -106	47.5 -114	+290	-375
Fliff	+9.5 -110	48.5 -110	+290	-390
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -105	48.5 -105	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+10 -111	46.5 -124	+296	-370
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	48 -110	+301	-403
Pinnacle	+10 -110	48 -110	+303	-372
Polymarket	—	47.5 -113	—	-335
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	48.5 -105	+290	-380

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTEP +10.0 · -115 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UTEP): DraftKings +10 at -112 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.7%) · Caesars +10 at -113 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or TOM +10 at -115 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

UTEP to win · +300 at BetMGM

We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (UTEP to win): BetMGM +300 (-0.6%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars +296 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +290 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-1.5%) · TOM +280 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 48

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners ML, only $375 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +345 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game
FPI	+10.5	+371
Sagarin	+5.5	+195
Massey	+6.5	+213
Market (19 books)	+10.0	+293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	50.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTEP Miners +10.0	-115	-109	-1.3%
Moneyline	UTEP Miners ML	+300	+309	-0.6%
Total	Over 46.5	-125	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.3.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.9 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +345 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern Illinois

CFB 6:30pm

Air Force -7

should be Air Force -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Air Force by 7TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game

FPI

Air Force by 8.5

Sagarin

Air Force by 7

Massey

Air Force by 8.5

Nasty Number

Air Force by 7.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

Model number

471.5 pts under the market

Pace number

50.31.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.93.4 pts over the market

Massey

48.20.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 50.3, 2.2 pts over the market's 48.1; the model says 47, 1.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+240	-300
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+240 28¢	-276 72¢
Pinnacle	+7 -101	48 -115	+249	-297

All 23 books

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+240	-300
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	48.5 -107 50¢	+240 28¢	-276 72¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -115	47.5 -112	+235	-305
BetAnything	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+240	-300
BetMGM	+7.5 -115	48.5 -110	+240	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+245	-300
betPARX	+7.5 -115	47.5 -112	+235	-305
BetRivers	+7.5 -118	47.5 -114	+235	-305
BetUS	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+250	-300
Bovada	+7 -105	48.5 -110	+250	-300
Caesars	+7 -107	48.5 -107	+255	-320
Courtside	+7 -106	48.5 -103	+246	-290
DraftKings	+7 -108	48.5 -105	+240	-298
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -105	48.5 -110	+240	-300
FanDuel	+7.5 -114	48.5 -110	+255	-320
Fliff	+7.5 -125	48.5 -115	+240	-310
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -115	47.5 -110	+240	-300
LowVig.ag	+7 -106	48.5 -108	+245	-300
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	48.5 -110	+234	-300
Pinnacle	+7 -101	48 -115	+249	-297
Polymarket	—	47.5	+257	-270
theScore Bet	+7.5 -115	48.5 -105	+260	-320

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force -7.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Air Force): Kalshi -7.5 at 47¢ (0.4%) · TOM -7 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings -7 at -112 (-0.5%) · Caesars -7 at -114 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · -276 (72¢) at Kalshi

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Air Force to win): Kalshi 72¢ (-0.7%) · DraftKings, DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -298 (73¢ on the app) (-2.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars -320 (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

The total · 48

The pace number is 50.3, 2.2 pts over the market's 48.1; the model says 47, 1.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +251 here against +278 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game
FPI	+8.5	+302
Sagarin	+7.0	+227
Massey	+8.5	+296
Market (19 books)	+7.0	+251

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons -7.0	-110	-110	-0.0%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	-276	-266	-0.7%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +278 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at Alabama

CFB 6:30pm

Alabama -2

should be Alabama -2 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 2TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 1.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 2

Massey

Alabama by 1

Nasty Number

Alabama by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

Model number

44.57.5 pts under the market

Pace number

61.19.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

56.44.4 pts over the market

Massey

61.49.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 61.1, 9.6 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 44.5, 7 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-2 -108	52 -110	-125	+105
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -112 51¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -107	51.5 -111	-121	+108

All 23 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-2 -108	52 -110	-125	+105
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -112 51¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2 -109	51.5 -107	-130	+107
BetAnything	-2 -110	51.5 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	51.5 -110	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-2 -108	51.5 -115	-125	+105
betPARX	-2 -109	51.5 -107	-130	+107
BetRivers	-2 -110	51 -115	-132	+106
BetUS	-2 -110	51.5 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-2.5 -110	51.5 -115	-125	+105
Caesars	-2.5 -109	51.5 -112	-122	+104
Courtside	-2.5 -105	51.5 -106	-122	+107
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	51.5 -108	-125	+105
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 51¢ -113 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	51.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -114	51.5 -115	-122	+102
Fliff	-2.5 -110	51.5 -120	-130	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -115	51.5 -105	-130	+105
LowVig.ag	-2 -105	51.5 -114	-125	+105
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	51.5 -110	-128	+105
Pinnacle	-2.5 -107	51.5 -111	-121	+108
Polymarket	-2.5	51.5 +100	-122	—
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	51.5 -105	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -2.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): TOM -2 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Caesars -2.5 at -109 (-2.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -125 at BetMGM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Alabama to win): FanDuel or Caesars -122 (-0.9%) · BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -125 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

The total · 51.5

The pace number is 61.1, 9.6 pts over the market's 51.5; the model says 44.5, 7 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 65°F, 49% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 5.3 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -2.5, only $82 available; Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $313 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game
FPI	-1.5	-114
Sagarin	-2.0	-117
Massey	-1.0	-108
Market (19 books)	-2.0	-120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -2.0	-108	-101	-1.6%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-125	-118	-1.5%
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.3 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia Southern

CFB 6:30pm

Under 51.5

weather: 13 mph wind and 70% chance of rain, worth about 2 off the total

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

James Madison by 7.5TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

James Madison by 9.5

Sagarin

James Madison by 9

Massey

James Madison by 14.5

Nasty Number

James Madison by 80.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 9 to James Madison by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

Model number

54.42.9 pts over the market

Pace number

54.12.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

50.11.4 pts under the market

Massey

56.44.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.1, 2.9 pts over the market's 51.2; the model says 54.4, 3.2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	51.5 -110	+235	-310
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	52.5 +109 46¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -113	51 -113	+258	-310

All 23 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+7.5 -116	51.5 -110	+235	-310
Kalshi	+7.5 -116 52¢	52.5 +109 46¢	+252 27¢	-306 74¢
Bally Bet	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-295
BetAnything	+7.5 -110	51.5 -110	+255	-325
BetMGM	+7.5 -110	51.5 -115	+250	-300
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -116	51.5 -110	+252	-310
betPARX	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-295
BetRivers	+7.5 -117	51.5 -112	+230	-295
BetUS	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+255	-310
Bovada	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+255	-310
Caesars	+7.5 -113	51.5 -108	+250	-320
Courtside	+7.5 -115	51.5 -103	+256	-302
DraftKings	+7.5 -115	51.5 -105	+250	-310
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in
Fanatics	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -115	51.5 -105	+235	-295
Fliff	+7.5 -120	51.5 -115	+240	-315
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+230	-300
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -112	51.5 -108	+252	-310
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -115	51.5 -110	+244	-319
Pinnacle	+7.5 -113	51 -113	+258	-310
Polymarket	—	51.5 +100	—	-285
theScore Bet	+7.5 -120	50.5 -120	+225	-275

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -7.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): Kalshi -7.5 at 49¢ (0.2%) · TOM -7.5 at -104 (-0.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel -7.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · Caesars -7.5 at -107 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -310 at DraftKings

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (James Madison to win): FanDuel -295 (-0.5%) · BetMGM -300 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -310 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -317 (74¢ on the app) (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 51

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 78°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern).

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $295 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +246 here against +284 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	+9.5	+325
Sagarin	+9.0	+308
Massey	+14.5	+513
Market (19 books)	+7.5	+246

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -7.5	-104	-104	-0.0%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-310	-288	-1.4%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +284 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn State

CFB 6:30pm

Penn State -2

should be Penn State -2 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 2TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 2.5

Sagarin

Penn State by 1

Massey

Penn State by 4.5

Nasty Number

Penn State by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM

Model number

523.5 pts under the market

Pace number

54.21.3 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

60.85.3 pts over the market

Massey

57.21.7 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.2, 0.4 pts under the market's 54.6; the model says 52, 2.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-2 -110	55.5 -107	-123	+103
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	55.5 +101 48¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2 -106	54.5 -107	-121	+108

All 23 books

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	-2 -110	55.5 -107	-123	+103
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	55.5 +101 48¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-127	+105
BetAnything	-2 -110	55 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-2.5 -105	54.5 -110	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-2 -110	55.5 -107	-123	+103
betPARX	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-127	+105
BetRivers	-1.5 -113	54.5 -112	-129	+104
BetUS	-2 -110	55 -110	-120	+100
Bovada	-2 -110	54.5 -110	-120	+100
Caesars	-2 -108	54.5 -114	-124	+105
Courtside	-2.5 -105	54.5 -110	-122	+107
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	54.5 -112	-125	+105
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	54.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -112	54.5 -110	-125	+104
Fliff	-2.5 -110	54.5 -120	-130	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-125	+105
LowVig.ag	-2 -106	55.5 -105	-123	+103
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-128	+105
Pinnacle	-2 -106	54.5 -107	-121	+108
Polymarket	-2.5	55.5 +108	-122	+117
theScore Bet	-1.5 -120	54.5 -105	-120	+100

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -2.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): FanDuel -1.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · Caesars -2 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM -2 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -123 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Penn State to win): TOM -123 (-1.2%) · Caesars, DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM -124 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 54¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 54.2, 0.4 pts under the market's 54.6; the model says 52, 2.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5, only $98 available; Under 55.5, only $448 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 54.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game
FPI	-2.5	-120
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	-4.5	-178
Market (19 books)	-2.0	-118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	59.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -2.0	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-123	-117	-1.2%
Total	Over 55.5	-107	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.9.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 54.6 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at Virginia

CFB 6:30pm

Virginia -11.5

should be Virginia -11 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 11. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 11.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 9.5

Sagarin

Virginia by 8.5

Massey

Virginia by 10

Nasty Number

Virginia by 110.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

Model number

52.12.6 pts over the market

Pace number

52.32.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

445.5 pts under the market

Massey

51.82.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.3, 3.1 pts over the market's 49.2; the model says 52.1, 2.9 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-11.5 -115	49.5 -113	-450	+340
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-11.5 -103	49 -118	-440	+350

All 23 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-11.5 -115	49.5 -113	-450	+340
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Bally Bet	-11 -112	49.5 -110	-530	+390
BetAnything	-12 -110	49.5 -110	-450	+340
BetMGM	-11.5 -115	49.5 -110	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-11.5 -115	49.5 -113	-450	+350
betPARX	-11 -112	49.5 -110	-530	+390
BetRivers	-11 -113	49.5 -112	-560	+380
BetUS	-12 -110	49.5 -110	-450	+355
Bovada	-11 -115	49.5 -110	-460	+340
Caesars	-11.5 -110	49.5 -114	-440	+340
Courtside	-11.5 -113	49.5 -108	-440	+360
DraftKings	-11.5 -115	49.5 -110	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 53¢ -122 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	50 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -118	48.5 -115	-450	+340
Fliff	-11.5 -120	49.5 -120	-485	+350
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -115	49.5 -110	-525	+400
LowVig.ag	-11.5 -106	49.5 -112	-450	+350
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	49.5 -110	-500	+360
Pinnacle	-11.5 -103	49 -118	-440	+350
Polymarket	—	49.5 -104	-426	+400
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	49.5 -110	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse +11.5 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Syracuse): BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +11.5 at -105 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.8%) · Fanatics or Caesars +11.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 51¢ (-1.6%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -104 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Syracuse to win · +373 (20¢) at Kalshi

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Syracuse to win): Kalshi 20¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-1.0%) · DraftKings +350 (-1.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +340 (-1.8%).

Off the band

The total · 49

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 62°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Virginia). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game
FPI	-9.5	-322
Sagarin	-8.5	-302
Massey	-10.0	-350
Market (19 books)	-11.5	-431

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Syracuse Orange +11.5	-105	-105	-0.0%
Moneyline	Syracuse Orange ML	+373	+377	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-107	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at Utah

CFB 7:00pm

Utah -14.5

should be Utah -15.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 14.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game

FPI

Utah by 15.5

Sagarin

Utah by 11

Massey

Utah by 18

Nasty Number

Utah by 15.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

Model number

51.41.9 pts over the market

Pace number

51.72.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

51.82.3 pts over the market

Massey

54.55 pts over the market

The pace number is 51.7, 1.8 pts over the market's 49.9; the model says 51.4, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-14.5 -115	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 +101 48¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-16 -102	50 -103	-700	+512

All 22 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-14.5 -115	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5 +101 48¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-15.5 -112	50 -113	-770	+500
BetAnything	-15 -110	49.5 -110	-750	+520
BetMGM	-15.5 -110	49.5 -110	-700	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -115	49.5 -105	-650	+476
betPARX	-15.5 -112	50 -113	-770	+500
BetRivers	-15.5 -113	50 -114	-770	+500
BetUS	-15.5 -110	49.5 -110	-700	+500
Bovada	-15.5 -110	49.5 -110	-750	+500
Caesars	-15.5 -108	49.5 -113	-750	+500
Courtside	-15.5 -108	49.5 -106	-669	+519
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	49.5 -108	-700	+500
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-15.5 -110	50 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-15.5 -110	50.5 -108	-820	+550
Fliff	-15.5 -115	50.5 -115	-785	+510
Hard Rock Bet	-15.5 -110	50.5 -105	-750	+500
MyBookie.ag	-15.5 -110	49.5 -110	-800	+530
Pinnacle	-16 -102	50 -103	-700	+512
Polymarket	—	49.5 +100	-614	+567
theScore Bet	-15.5 -105	49.5 +100	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah -14.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Utah): Kalshi -16.5 at 48¢ (-1.1%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions -15.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.8%) · TOM -14.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -15.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Utah to win · -660 (86¢) at Kalshi

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah to win): Kalshi 86¢ (-1.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -700 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.1%) · Caesars -750 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -820 (-4.2%).

Off the band

The total · 50

The pace number is 51.7, 1.8 pts over the market's 49.9; the model says 51.4, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $86 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.7 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 15.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game
FPI	-15.5	-558
Sagarin	-11.0	-373
Massey	-18.0	-743
Market (18 books)	-14.5	-643

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Utah Utes -14.5	-115	-106	-2.0%
Moneyline	Utah Utes ML	-660	-563	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -15.7 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at Purdue

CFB 7:00pm

Minnesota -2.5

should be Minnesota -2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Minnesota by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game

FPI

Minnesota by 0.5

Sagarin

Minnesota by 2.5

Massey

Minnesota by 4.5

Nasty Number

Minnesota by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

Model number

49.21.3 pts under the market

Pace number

53.83.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.18.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.13.6 pts over the market

The pace number is 53.8, 3.4 pts over the market's 50.4; the model says 49.2, 1.2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	50.5 -112	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	50.5 -103	+122	-137

All 23 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	50.5 -112	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -112	49.5 -112	+114	-137
BetAnything	+2.5 +100	50.5 -110	+120	-140
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	50.5 -110	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	50.5 -112	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -112	49.5 -112	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -113	49.5 -113	+112	-139
BetUS	+2.5 +100	50.5 -110	+120	-140
Bovada	+3 -120	50 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -108	50.5 -108	+118	-139
Courtside	+2.5 -105	50.5 -106	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	50.5 -108	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 48¢ -100 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -104	50.5 -106	+118	-142
Fliff	+2.5 -110	50.5 -115	+115	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+115	-135
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +104	50.5 -110	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -105	50 -110	+117	-143
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	50.5 -103	+122	-137
Polymarket	+2.5	49.5 -108	—	-133
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	50.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota -2.5 · -113 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Minnesota): Caesars -2.5 at -113 (-2.7%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -2.5 at -115 (-3.1%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -118 (-3.8%) · TOM -2.5 at -120 (-4.2%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 53¢ (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · -140 at Caesars

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): Caesars, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -139 (-3.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Kalshi -142 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

The total · 50.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $332 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $346 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	+2.5	+128
Massey	+4.5	+178
Market (19 books)	+2.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5	-113	-101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-140	-123	-3.2%
Total	Over 50.5	-112	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona State

CFB 9:30pm

Arizona State -21

should be Arizona State -21 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 21.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 21TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Arizona State by 14.5

Sagarin

Arizona State by 21.5

Massey

Arizona State by 20.5

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 210.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

Model number

52.81.8 pts over the market

Pace number

52.81.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.2on the market

The pace number is 52.8, 2 pts over the market's 50.8; the model says 52.8, 2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-21 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Pinnacle	-21 -105	51 -101	-1582	+954

All 23 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-21 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Bally Bet	-21 -110	50.5 -114	-1430	+800
BetAnything	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1900	+1025
BetMGM	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1600	+900
BetOnline.ag	-21 -110	51 -110	-1800	+979
betPARX	-21 -110	50.5 -114	-1430	+800
BetRivers	-21 -112	50.5 -117	-1667	+800
BetUS	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1800	+1000
Bovada	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1800	+850
Caesars	-21 -108	50.5 -110	-1700	+950
Courtside	-21 -108	50.5 -113	-1635	+1064
DraftKings	-21 -110	50.5 -115	-1800	+1000
DraftKings Predictions	-20.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 48¢ -100 all-in	93¢ -1901 all-in	8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics	-21 -110	50.5 -115	-1800	+1050
FanDuel	-20.5 -118	50.5 -115	-1800	+920
Fliff	-20.5 -125	50.5 -120	-2065	+935
Hard Rock Bet	-20.5 -120	50.5 -115	-1400	+800
LowVig.ag	-21 -106	51 -108	-1800	+979
MyBookie.ag	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1695	+840
Pinnacle	-21 -105	51 -101	-1582	+954
Polymarket	—	—	-1329	+1150
theScore Bet	-21.5 -105	50.5 -115	-3000	+1200

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i +21.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Hawai'i): Kalshi +20.5 at 48¢ (-1.4%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +21 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.7%) · Caesars +21 at -112 (-2.1%) · FanDuel +20.5 at -104 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Hawai'i to win · +966 at Caesars

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): Kalshi or Fanatics +1074 (0.5%) · DraftKings +1000 (-0.1%) · Caesars +950 (-0.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +920 (8¢ on the app) (-0.8%).

Off the band

The total · 51

The pace number is 52.8, 2 pts over the market's 50.8; the model says 52.8, 2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Arizona State).

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $79 available; Under 49.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 2130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game
FPI	-14.5	-506
Sagarin	-21.5	-1168
Massey	-20.5	-948
Market (19 books)	-21.0	-1418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21.0	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	+966	+1009	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tomorrow

13 games3 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Colts at Steelers, Colts +3.0.

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at Chargers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

Chargers +3.5

should be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Broncos by 3.5TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 12.6 pts our side

FPI

Broncos by 0.53 pts our side

Sagarin

Broncos by 12.4 pts our side

Massey

Broncos by 21.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 30.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Chargers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

40.31.7 pts under the market

Pace number

42.80.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

39.52.5 pts under the market

FPI

38.43.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 42.8, 1.1 pts over the market's 41.7; the model says 40.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+150	-180
Pinnacle	+3.5 -104	41.5 -113	+168	-192

All 24 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+150	-180
Bally Bet	+3.5 -113	42.5 -108	+150	-182
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+155	-180
BetMGM	+3.5 -108	42 -108	+155	-190
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -108	42 -105	+157	-180
betPARX	+3.5 -113	42.5 -108	+150	-182
BetRivers	+3.5 -113	42.5 -108	+150	-182
BetUS	+3.5 -110	42 -105	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -113	42 -105	+158	-190
Courtside	+3.5 -112	41.5 -113	+163	-188
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	41.5 -115	+160	-192
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 49¢ -104 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	41.5 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+3.5 -112	42.5 -105	+156	-186
Fliff	+3.5 -115	41.5 -115	+155	-200
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	41.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -110	41.5 -110	+160	-190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -110	41.5 -110	+160	-190
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -103	42 -102	+157	-180
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+155	-193
Pinnacle	+3.5 -104	41.5 -113	+168	-192
Polymarket	+3.5 +104	42.5 +104	+170	-178
ReBet	+3.5 -110	41.5 -120	+159	-189
theScore Bet	+3.5 -110	41.5 -115	+170	-200

Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers +3.5 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Chargers): BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (2.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (1.7%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Chargers to win · +160 at DraftKings

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Chargers to win): DraftKings +160 (2.0%) · Caesars +158 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +156 (37¢ on the app) (1.4%) · TOM +150 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 41.5

The pace number is 42.8, 1.1 pts over the market's 41.7; the model says 40.3, 1.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos) and 7 more.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +157 here against +177 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+104
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	+1.0	+106
Massey	+2.0	+114
Market (21 books)	+3.5	+157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	38.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Chargers +3.5	-108	-120	+2.6%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Chargers ML	+160	+147	+2.0%
Total	Under 42.0	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.7 consensus; moneyline +157 here against +177 consensus.

Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at Steelers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Colts +3

should be Colts +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Steelers by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Colts by 13.4 pts our side

FPI

Colts by 0.52.8 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em2.5 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em2.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Steelers by 20.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Colts. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Colts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

451.5 pts over the market

Pace number

46.93.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

473.5 pts over the market

FPI

42.21.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.9, 3.4 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 45, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	43.5 -110	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +103	43.5 -111	-149	+131

All 25 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Colts ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	43.5 -110	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	43.5 -113	-139	+116
BetAnything	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-145	+125
BetMGM	-2.5 -118	43.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	43.5 -110	-148	+128
betPARX	-2.5 -114	43.5 -113	-139	+116
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	43.5 -113	-139	+116
BetUS	-2 -120	43.5 -110	-150	+129
Caesars	-2.5 -114	43.5 -114	-143	+121
Courtside	-2.5 -125	43.5 -106	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -102	43.5 -108	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	—	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -112	43.5 -110	-144	+122
Fliff	-2.5 -120	43.5 -115	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-3 +103	43.5 -107	-148	+128
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	43.5 -110	-144	+117
Pinnacle	-3 +103	43.5 -111	-149	+131
Polymarket	-2.5 -113	42.5	-138	+133
ReBet	-2.5 -125	43.5 -110	-146	+124
theScore Bet	-3 +100	44.5 -105	-145	+125

Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -118 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +3 at -118 (2.3%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (1.9%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.2%) · Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +129 (42¢) at Kalshi

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Colts to win): Kalshi 42¢ (2.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +125 (1.8%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions +123 (43¢ on the app) (1.4%) · FanDuel +122 (1.2%) · Caesars +121 (1.0%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

The pace number is 46.9, 3.4 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 45, 1.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +3.0 · -118 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 65°F, 87% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colts, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Will Mallory (TE, Colts) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Steelers -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Steelers by 3.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+105
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	PK	+100
Market (21 books)	-2.5	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+129	+116	+2.5%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.0	-118	-129	+2.3%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 10-05 08:06; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at Seahawks

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

49ers +3

should be 49ers +3 at TOM

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. 49ers +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more 49ers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 3TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1.51.4 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 24.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 12.2 pts our side

Massey

Seahawks by 21.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 30.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

Model number

48.52.5 pts over the market

Pace number

49.33.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

49.23.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.3, 3.4 pts over the market's 46; the model says 48.5, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +109	46 -107	-173	+151

All 25 books

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	49ers ML
TOM	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetAnything	-3.5 +100	46 -110	-170	+150
BetMGM	-3 -118	46.5 -108	-165	+138
BetOnline.ag	-3 -125	46 -113	-175	+153
betPARX	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3 -115	46 -110	-165	+135
BetUS	-3.5 +100	46.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3 -115	46 -106	-173	+148
Courtside	-3 -108	45.5 -113	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -115	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 48¢ -100 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	46 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3 -118	46.5 -105	-174	+146
Fliff	-3.5 +105	46.5 -110	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 +100	45.5 -115	-170	+145
LowVig.ag	-3 -121	46 -110	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	46 -110	-169	+136
Pinnacle	-3.5 +109	46 -107	-173	+151
Polymarket	-3.5 +113	46.5 +104	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -120	-157	+133
theScore Bet	-3 -115	46.5 -110	-165	+140

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers +3.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): TOM +3 at +105 (2.2%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.5%) · FanDuel +3 at -104 (-0.0%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -105 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +145 at FanDuel

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (49ers to win): Caesars +148 (0.8%) · FanDuel, Kalshi, Fanatics or TOM +146 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 39¢ on the app (+144 all-in) (0.0%) · BetMGM +138 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +136 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 49.3, 3.4 pts over the market's 46; the model says 48.5, 2.5 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · +105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 58°F.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Julian Neal (CB, Seahawks) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.

DraftKings still has Seahawks -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 2.3% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-113
FPI	+2.0	+115
Sagarin	-1.0	-103
Massey	-2.0	-116
Market (21 books)	-3.0	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	48.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.0	+105	-104	+2.2%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+145	+143	+0.3%
Total	Over 46.0	-113	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.

New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at Commanders

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Giants +4

should be Giants +3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5

A Little Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Commanders by 4, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 3. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Commanders by 4TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

Commanders by 12.9 pts our side

FPI

Commanders by 5.51.4 pts against us

Sagarin

Giants by 0.54.4 pts our side

Massey

Commanders by 0.53.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Commanders by 31 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at Commanders by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Giants's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

Model number

41.3on the market

Pace number

46.24.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

45.94.4 pts over the market

FPI

39.52 pts under the market

The pace number is 46.2, 4.4 pts over the market's 41.8; the model says 41.3, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-4 -104	41.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +102	42 -104	-176	+154

All 25 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Giants ML
TOM	-4 -104	41.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -112 51¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-4 -108	42 -109	-182	+148
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-190	+165
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	42 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -104	41.5 -110	-190	+165
betPARX	-4 -108	42 -109	-182	+148
BetRivers	-4 -108	42 -109	-182	+148
BetUS	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-190	+163
Caesars	-3.5 -114	41.5 -114	-190	+157
Courtside	-3.5 -110	41.5 -113	-166	+145
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	41.5 -115	-170	+142
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 48¢ -100 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -105	41.5 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-3.5 -112	41.5 -115	-186	+156
Fliff	-3.5 -110	42.5 -110	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	41.5 -110	-180	+155
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	41.5 -110	-180	+155
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	41.5 -110	-180	+155
LowVig.ag	-4 +107	41.5 -107	-190	+165
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-189	+152
Pinnacle	-3.5 +102	42 -104	-176	+154
Polymarket	-3.5 +100	41.5 +100	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -109	41.5 -110	-185	+155
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	41.5 -110	-175	+150

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +4.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): Caesars +3.5 at -106 (3.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (2.7%) · TOM +4 at -116 (2.5%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · +160 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Giants to win): TOM +160 (2.1%) · Caesars or FanDuel +157 (1.7%) · Fanatics +155 (1.4%) · Kalshi 38¢ (0.9%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +150 (38¢ on the app) (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 42

The pace number is 46.2, 4.4 pts over the market's 41.8; the model says 41.3, 0.6 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +4.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 67°F, 92% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants), Trey Amos (CB, Commanders), Tyler Owens (S, Commanders) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCommanders by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-106
FPI	-5.5	-216
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	-0.5	-100
Market (21 books)	-4.0	-182

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +4.0	-116	-128	+2.5%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+160	+146	+2.1%
Total	Under 41.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at Falcons

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

Ravens +3.5

should be Ravens +2 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Falcons by 3.5TOM, +100

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 1.55.1 pts our side

FPI

Falcons by 2.51 pts our side

Sagarin

Ravens by 4.58 pts our side

Massey

Ravens by 3.56.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Falcons by 21.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Ravens. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 9 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 9 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ravens is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

Model number

47.74.2 pts over the market

Pace number

48.34.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

48.95.4 pts over the market

FPI

40.53 pts under the market

The pace number is 48.3, 5.1 pts over the market's 43.2; the model says 47.7, 4.5 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
TOM	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	43 -115	-176	+154

All 25 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Ravens ML
TOM	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-170	+140
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3 -118	43.5 -110	-175	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-170	+149
betPARX	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -103	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetUS	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-170	+146
Caesars	-3.5 -104	43.5 -114	-176	+149
Courtside	-3.5 -106	43.5 -108	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3 -122	43.5 -110	-180	+150
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 +100	43.5 -114	-172	+144
Fliff	-3.5 +100	43.5 -115	-180	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-175	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 +101	43.5 -113	-170	+149
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-181	+147
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	43 -115	-176	+154
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	43.5 -108	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -110	-178	+150
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -105	-175	+150

Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens +3.0 · +102 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings +3 at +102 (6.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 52¢ (5.6%) · Caesars +3.5 at -117 (5.3%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (5.0%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -120 (4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Ravens to win · +150 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Ravens loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesars +150 (5.3%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +146 (4.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +144 (39¢ on the app) (4.3%) · TOM +140 (3.6%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43

The pace number is 48.3, 5.1 pts over the market's 43.2; the model says 47.7, 4.5 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Cam Jurgens (C, Ravens), Yasir Abdullah (LB, Falcons) and 1 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

MyBookie.ag still has Falcons -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Falcons by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onFalcons by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+112
FPI	-2.5	-126
Sagarin	+4.5	+194
Massey	+3.5	+162
Market (21 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens +3.0	+102	-125	+6.0%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	+150	+121	+5.3%
Total	Over 43.5	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 6.3.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at Jaguars

NFL tomorrow 8:30am · neutral

Eagles +7.5

should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.9 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 7.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 2.54.9 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 6.51 pts our side

Sagarin

Jaguars by 3.54 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 3.53.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 6.50.8 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Eagles. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

41.8on the market

Pace number

43.11.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

42.40.4 pts over the market

FPI

43.11.1 pts over the market

The pace number is 43.1, 1.6 pts over the market's 41.6; the model says 41.8, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-7.5 -110	42 -107	-370	+280
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 -110	41.5 -107	-373	+304

All 25 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Eagles ML
TOM	-7.5 -110	42 -107	-370	+280
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetAnything	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-375	+297
BetMGM	-7.5 -110	42 -112	-375	+310
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -110	42 -107	-370	+296
betPARX	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetRivers	-7.5 -112	41.5 -109	-400	+300
BetUS	-8 -105	42 -110	-370	+295
Caesars	-7.5 -108	41.5 -112	-380	+295
Courtside	-7.5 -108	41.5 -110	-383	+319
DraftKings	-7.5 -108	41.5 -112	-395	+310
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 49¢ -104 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+315
Fliff	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-415	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -110	41.5 -115	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -109	42 -104	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	42 -110	-391	+295
Pinnacle	-7.5 -110	41.5 -107	-373	+304
Polymarket	-7.5 -104	42.5 +108	-335	+317
ReBet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400	+320
theScore Bet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400	+300

Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +7.5 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): Kalshi or BetMGM +7.5 at -107 (2.6%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +7.5 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (1.5%).

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +315 at FanDuel

We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +315 (3.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +310 (2.7%) · Kalshi or Caesars +296 (1.8%) · Fanatics +290 (1.4%) · TOM +280 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

The total · 41.5

The pace number is 43.1, 1.6 pts over the market's 41.6; the model says 41.8, 0.2 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.9 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), DeVonta Smith (WR, Eagles), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-129
FPI	-6.5	-258
Sagarin	-3.5	-175
Massey	-3.5	-179
Market (21 books)	-7.5	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +7.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+315	+270	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 42.0	-113	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.6 consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at Dolphins

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bengals -7

should be Bengals -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Bengals by 7TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 92.2 pts our side

FPI

Bengals by 9.52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Bengals by 92 pts our side

Massey

Bengals by 3.53.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Bengals by 7.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Bengals. Massey at Bengals by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bengals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

Model number

41.62.4 pts under the market

Pace number

45.31.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

45.41.4 pts over the market

FPI

462 pts over the market

The pace number is 45.3, 1.8 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 41.6, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 42 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -115	44 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +105	43.5 -111	+275	-333

All 25 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+7 -115	44 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+7 -114	43.5 -109	+255	-335
BetAnything	+7 -110	43.5 -115	+280	-350
BetMGM	+7 -110	43.5 -112	+270	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7 -115	44 -110	+267	-330
betPARX	+7 -114	43.5 -109	+255	-335
BetRivers	+7 -114	43.5 -109	+255	-335
BetUS	+7 -115	43.5 -110	+270	-330
Caesars	+7 -115	43.5 -109	+265	-335
Courtside	+7 -110	43.5 -110	+287	-345
DraftKings	+7 -112	43.5 -112	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 48¢ -100 all-in	42.5 57¢ -144 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	43.5 -115	+265	-340
FanDuel	+7 -115	43.5 -110	+260	-320
Fliff	+6.5 +100	43.5 -115	+265	-370
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -120	43.5 -110	+260	-350
LowVig.ag	+7 -110	44 -107	+267	-330
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	43.5 -110	+255	-336
Pinnacle	+6.5 +105	43.5 -111	+275	-333
Polymarket	+6.5 +108	44.5 +104	+300	-317
ReBet	+6.5 -105	43.5 -110	+260	-319
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	43.5 -115	+260	-320

Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -7.0 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bengals): Caesars -7 at -104 (1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -7 at -105 (1.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -108 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 54¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · -330 at TOM

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bengals to win): FanDuel -320 (-0.4%) · BetMGM -325 (-0.7%) · TOM -330 (-0.9%) · Caesars -335 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -340 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

The pace number is 45.3, 1.8 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 41.6, 1.9 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened +9.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 2.4 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Justin Joly (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 2 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +308 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has Dolphins +7.5 while Pinnacle is at Bengals by 6.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.0	+366
FPI	+9.5	+376
Sagarin	+9.0	+361
Massey	+3.5	+176
Market (21 books)	+7.0	+266

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals -7.0	-105	-111	+1.3%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	-330	-314	-0.9%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.5 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +308 consensus.

Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at Titans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Titans +7

should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 7, the Nasty Number says Texans by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Texans by 7TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 51.8 pts our side

FPI

Texans by 52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Texans by 43 pts our side

Massey

Texans by 43.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texans by 6.50.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

38TOM

Model number

402 pts over the market

Pace number

42.94.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

40.72.7 pts over the market

FPI

40.42.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 42.9, 5.3 pts over the market's 37.6; the model says 40, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -105	38 -113	+275	-365
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	38.5 +101 48¢	+280 25¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -126	37.5 -115	+308	-380

All 25 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Texans ML
TOM	+7 -105	38 -113	+275	-365
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	38.5 +101 48¢	+280 25¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+7 -107	37.5 -113	+275	-360
BetAnything	+7 -110	38 -110	+297	-375
BetMGM	+7 -105	38 -110	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+7 -105	38 -113	+292	-365
betPARX	+7 -107	37.5 -113	+275	-360
BetRivers	+7 -107	37.5 -113	+275	-360
BetUS	+7 -105	38 -115	+293	-365
Caesars	+7 -106	38 -113	+290	-380
Courtside	+7 -106	37.5 -119	+293	-350
DraftKings	+7 -108	38.5 -105	+285	-360
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 54¢ -127 all-in	36.5 57¢ -144 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -105	38 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+7 -105	37.5 -118	+295	-370
Fliff	+7.5 -125	37.5 -115	+290	-415
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -120	37.5 -115	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+7 +100	38 -110	+292	-365
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	38 -110	+285	-380
Pinnacle	+7.5 -126	37.5 -115	+308	-380
Polymarket	+7.5 -122	38.5 +108	+300	-317
ReBet	+7.5 -125	37.5 -110	+295	-370
theScore Bet	+7 -110	37.5 -120	+270	-340

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Titans): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +7 at -105 (0.5%) · Caesars +7 at -106 (0.2%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (-0.3%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +295 at FanDuel

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel +295 (1.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +290 (1.4%) · DraftKings +285 (1.0%) · Kalshi 25¢ (0.7%) · TOM +275 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 37.5

The pace number is 42.9, 5.3 pts over the market's 37.6; the model says 40, 2.4 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +287 here against +344 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+212
FPI	+5.0	+201
Sagarin	+4.0	+184
Massey	+4.0	+180
Market (21 books)	+7.0	+287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.0	40.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+295	+270	+1.7%
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.0	-105	-107	+0.5%
Total	Over 38.0	-113	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 38.0 here against 37.6 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +344 consensus.

Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at Packers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bears -1

should be Bears -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 1, the Nasty Number says Bears by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Bears by 1TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 1

FPI

Bears by 2

Sagarin

Bears by 3.5

Massey

Bears by 1.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

Model number

48.12.6 pts over the market

Pace number

46.30.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

441.5 pts under the market

FPI

45.80.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.3, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 48.1, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -116 52¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+1 -102	46 -105	+105	-122

All 25 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Bears ML
TOM	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -116 52¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+105	-125
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+100	-120
BetOnline.ag	+1 -108	45.5 -113	-101	-119
betPARX	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetRivers	+1.5 -109	45.5 -110	+102	-125
BetUS	+1 -105	45.5 -110	+105	-125
Caesars	+1.5 -109	45.5 -112	+105	-124
Courtside	+1.5 -105	46.5 -105	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -105	45.5 -118	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+106	-124
Fliff	+1.5 -115	45.5 -115	+100	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -105	45.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1.5 -105	45.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1.5 -105	45.5 -115	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1 -103	45.5 -110	-101	-119
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+102	-124
Pinnacle	+1 -102	46 -105	+105	-122
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	46.5 +108	+108	-113
ReBet	+1.5 -110	45.5 -110	+104	-122
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	46.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -1.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi -1.5 at 49¢ (-1.1%) · TOM -1 at -112 (-2.0%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-2.3%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -115 (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -119 at TOM

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (Bears to win): TOM -119 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -120 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 53¢ (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.9%) · Caesars, FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics -124 (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 46

The pace number is 46.3, 0.5 pts over the market's 45.8; the model says 48.1, 2.3 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Bears).

QB questionable: Caleb Williams (Bears), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Kyle Monangai (RB, Bears), Savion Williams (WR, Packers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 4 more.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-108
FPI	+2.0	+118
Sagarin	+3.5	+178
Massey	+1.5	+113
Market (21 books)	+1.0	+103

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	44.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -1.0	-112	-103	-2.0%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-119	-109	-2.2%
Total	Over 45.5	-113	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +103 here against +113 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at Jets

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Jets -1

should be Jets -2 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 2. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Jets by 1TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Jets by 1

FPI

Jets by 1

Sagarin

Jets by 0.5

Massey

Jets by 0.5

Nasty Number

Jets by 21 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

Model number

44.14.6 pts over the market

Pace number

43.84.3 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

39.80.3 pts over the market

FPI

39.10.4 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 45, pace number 43.7 against a market total of 39.8, edge +0.2%). Still there: BetMGM -110, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-140	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	40 +100	-138	+122

All 25 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Browns ML
TOM	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-140	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+118 44¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-140	+120
BetMGM	-2 -110	39.5 -110	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-1 -125	39.5 -110	-140	+120
betPARX	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	40 -113	-139	+115
BetUS	-2 -115	39.5 -105	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -106	39.5 -115	-150	+122
Courtside	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	39.5 -112	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	39.5 52¢ -117 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-1.5 -120	39.5 -115	-134	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -110	39.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -110	39.5 -107	-140	+120
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	39.5 -110	-135	+110
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	40 +100	-138	+122
Polymarket	-2.5 -104	40.5 +113	-133	+127
ReBet	-2.5 -120	39.5 -110	-133	+113
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	39.5 -105	-135	+115

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets -1.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Jets): BetMGM -2 at -110 (-2.5%) · TOM -1 at -125 (-3.0%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -120 (-3.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Jets to win · -134 at FanDuel

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Jets to win): FanDuel or DraftKings -134 (-3.3%) · Kalshi 56¢ (-3.7%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -140 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.1%) · Caesars -150 (-6.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 39.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 45, pace number 43.7 against a market total of 39.8, edge +0.2%). Still there: BetMGM -110, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 63°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Jets).

Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), Tylan Wallace (WR, Browns), Carsen Ryan (TE, Browns) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.

Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onJets by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-108
FPI	-1.0	-108
Sagarin	-0.5	-103
Massey	-0.5	-101
Market (21 books)	-1.0	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	38.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Jets -1.0	-125	-111	-3.0%
Moneyline	New York Jets ML	-134	-117	-3.3%
Total	Under 39.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 10-05 08:06.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at Patriots

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Patriots -3.5

should be Patriots -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5

FPI

Patriots by 3.5

Sagarin

Patriots by 4.5

Massey

Patriots by 4

Nasty Number

Patriots by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

Model number

42.92.1 pts under the market

Pace number

45.50.5 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

40.64.4 pts under the market

FPI

41.93.1 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.5, 0.4 pts over the market's 45.1; the model says 42.9, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -114	-183	+153
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +102	45 -109	-179	+157

All 25 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	45 -114	-183	+153
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -109	45 -112	-195	+160
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+165
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-190	+160
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -114	-183	+160
betPARX	-3.5 -109	45 -112	-195	+160
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	45 -112	-195	+160
BetUS	-3.5 -110	45 -115	-185	+159
Caesars	-3.5 -114	45 -109	-197	+163
Courtside	-3.5 -108	45.5 -103	-188	+163
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	45.5 -105	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -105	45.5 -110	-190	+155
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	44.5 -118	-196	+164
Fliff	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-195	+150
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-190	+160
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-190	+160
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-190	+160
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -104	45 -112	-183	+160
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	45 -110	-195	+157
Pinnacle	-3.5 +102	45 -109	-179	+157
Polymarket	-3.5 +100	45.5 +104	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -110	45.5 -109	-191	+161
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	45.5 +100	-175	+150

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -3.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi -3.5 at 49¢ (-0.4%) · Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.6%) · BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Caesars -3.5 at -114 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -183 (63¢) at Kalshi

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi or TOM -182 (-0.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -190 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -192 (-1.8%) · FanDuel or Caesars -196 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 65¢ on the app (-203 all-in) (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

The total · 45

The pace number is 45.5, 0.4 pts over the market's 45.1; the model says 42.9, 2.2 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 61°F.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jalen Nailor (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-210
FPI	-3.5	-173
Sagarin	-4.5	-190
Massey	-4.0	-184
Market (21 books)	-3.5	-175

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -3.5	-103	-102	-0.4%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-183	-177	-0.7%
Total	Under 45.0	-106	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at Saints

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Vikings -1

should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. 1.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Vikings by 1TOM, +105

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 3

FPI

Vikings by 1.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 4.5

Massey

Vikings by 5

Nasty Number

Vikings by 2.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

Model number

51.49.4 pts over the market

Pace number

45.13.1 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

41.30.7 pts under the market

FPI

393 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 51.5, pace number 45 against a market total of 41.9, edge +1.3%). Still there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 +105	42 +100	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -112 51¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2 +101	42 +100	+124	-139

All 25 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1 +105	42 +100	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -112 51¢	+118 44¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
BetMGM	+2.5 -110	41.5 -108	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+1 +105	42 +100	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	41.5 -112	+114	-137
BetUS	+1 +105	41.5 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -110	41.5 -113	+118	-139
Courtside	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -112	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 47¢ +104 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+1.5 -102	42.5 -104	+116	-134
Fliff	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+115	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -107	42 +103	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+116	-142
Pinnacle	+2 +101	42 +100	+124	-139
Polymarket	+2.5 -104	41.5 +100	+127	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	+118	-139
theScore Bet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -1.0 · -125 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): TOM -1 at -125 (-0.7%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -120 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -2.5 at -107 (-1.2%) · Caesars -2.5 at -109 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -134 at FanDuel

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel -134 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 56¢ (-1.5%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -139 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -142 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Over 41.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 51.5, pace number 45 against a market total of 41.9, edge +1.3%). Still there: BetMGM -108, Fanatics -110, Kalshi -104.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Christian Darrisaw (OT, Vikings), Jeremiah Wright (G, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.0	+141
FPI	+1.5	+110
Sagarin	+4.5	+190
Massey	+5.0	+213
Market (21 books)	+1.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	40.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -1.0	-125	-122	-0.7%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-134	-128	-1.0%
Total	Under 42.0	-120	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at Cardinals

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Lions -5.5

should be Lions -5.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Lions by 5.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 6.5

FPI

Lions by 5.5

Sagarin

Lions by 6.5

Massey

Lions by 2.5

Nasty Number

Lions by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

Model number

50.34.2 pts under the market

Pace number

52.42.1 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

55.91.4 pts over the market

FPI

51.23.3 pts under the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.3, pace number 52.4 against a market total of 54.5, edge +1.1%). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Caesars -110.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+205	-255
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -103 49¢	+208 31¢	-250 70¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -110	54.5 -104	+207	-242

All 25 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Lions ML
TOM	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+205	-255
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	54.5 -103 49¢	+208 31¢	-250 70¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetAnything	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-240
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-235
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+211	-255
betPARX	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetRivers	+5.5 -110	54 -112	+190	-235
BetUS	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+215	-255
Caesars	+5.5 -114	54.5 -109	+205	-250
Courtside	+5.5 -110	54.5 -113	+210	-244
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	54.5 -115	+205	-250
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	32¢ +194 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -115	54.5 -110	+200	-245
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	54.5 -108	+198	-245
Fliff	+5.5 -115	54.5 -110	+200	-270
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-240
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-240
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+200	-240
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -105	54.5 -107	+211	-255
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+192	-242
Pinnacle	+5.5 -110	54.5 -104	+207	-242
Polymarket	+5.5 -108	54.5 +104	+223	-233
ReBet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -110	+210	-255
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	54.5 -115	+210	-250

Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -5.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): Caesars, FanDuel or Fanatics -5.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -5.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.7%) · DraftKings or TOM -5.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -235 at BetMGM

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Lions to win): BetMGM -235 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -245 (-2.0%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -250 (-2.4%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions -255 (70¢ on the app) (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

Under 54.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 50.3, pace number 52.4 against a market total of 54.5, edge +1.1%). Still there: DraftKings -105, BetMGM -108, Caesars -110.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.5	+259
FPI	+5.5	+220
Sagarin	+6.5	+250
Massey	+2.5	+127
Market (21 books)	+5.5	+214

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	53.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -5.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-235	-223	-1.2%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Oct 12

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at Rams

NFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pm

Bills +3

should be Bills +3 at TOM

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 3TOM, -118

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

FPI

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Rams by 1.51.3 pts our side

Massey

Rams by 12 pts our side

Nasty Number

Rams by 30.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Bills. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

Model number

57.22.7 pts over the market

Pace number

513.5 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

53.80.7 pts under the market

FPI

50.73.8 pts under the market

The pace number is 51, 3.4 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 57.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	54.5	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3 -117	54.5 -102	-177	+155

All 25 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Bills ML
TOM	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	54.5	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 +102	54 -112	-167	+135
BetAnything	-3 -120	54.5 -110	-180	+155
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	54.5 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3 -118	54.5 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 +102	54 -112	-167	+135
BetRivers	-3 -120	54 -112	-167	+135
BetUS	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Caesars	-3.5 -102	54.5 -112	-176	+147
Courtside	-3.5 -105	54.5 -116	-171	+148
DraftKings	-3 -120	54.5 -118	-175	+145
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -104	54.5 -110	-178	+150
Fliff	-3.5 +100	54.5 -110	-175	+140
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-175	+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-175	+150
LowVig.ag	-3 -115	54.5 -107	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	54.5 -110	-174	+140
Pinnacle	-3 -117	54.5 -102	-177	+155
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	54.5 +100	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	54.5 -110	-168	+142
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	54.5 -110	-165	+140

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills +3.0 · -102 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (1.4%) · DraftKings +3 at +100 (1.3%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (0.9%) · TOM +3 at -102 (0.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · +145 (39¢) at Kalshi

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Bills to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +150 (1.4%) · Caesars +147 (0.9%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM +146 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 54.5

The pace number is 51, 3.4 pts under the market's 54.5; the model says 57.2, 2.7 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bills +3.0 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Bills, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $11 available; Under 54.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-114
FPI	-1.5	-114
Sagarin	-1.5	-114
Massey	-1.0	-105
Market (21 books)	-3.0	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	52.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bills +3.0	-102	-105	+0.8%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	+145	+142	+0.6%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 10-05 08:06; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Tue Oct 13

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersDelaware at Middle Tennessee

CFB Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm

Delaware +1.5

should be Delaware -2 · getting 3.5 pts at FanDuel · was +1.5

A Little Nasty · Delaware, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Middle Tennessee →

Market

Delaware by 1

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game

FPI

Delaware by 43.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Delaware by 5.54.9 pts our side

Massey

Middle Tennessee by 22.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

Delaware by 21.3 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Delaware. Massey at Middle Tennessee by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

50.32.3 pts over the market

Pace number

49.41.4 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

52.84.8 pts over the market

Massey

51.23.2 pts over the market

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.6, pace number 49.4, ratings 50.1 against a market total of 46.5, edge +0.2%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -178.

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Delaware ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 5 books

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Delaware ML
Courtside	+1.5 -108	48.5 -108	+100	-116
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	48.5 -110	-102	-118
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 56¢ -138 all-in	45.5 64¢ -194 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	47.5 -106	-118	-102
Fliff	+1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-115	-110

Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Delaware): FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (3.7%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.9%).

A Little Nasty

Delaware to win · -102 at FanDuel

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Delaware to win): FanDuel -102 (3.3%) · DraftKings -118 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.2%).

Same opinion, more variance

Over 46.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Posted in Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty (model 49.6, pace number 49.4, ratings 50.1 against a market total of 46.5, edge +0.2%). Still there: DraftKings Predictions 45.5 -178.

Flat Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 2.2 toward Delaware, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders -1.5, only $25 available; Delaware Blue Hens +1.5, only $52 available; Over 50.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onDelaware by 240% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee's last game
FPI	+4.0	+168
Sagarin	+5.5	+195
Massey	-2.0	-115
Market (4 books)	+1.0	+101

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens +1.5	-110	-128	+3.7%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	-102	-116	+3.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 1.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Delaware and Middle Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State GamecocksFlorida International at Jacksonville State

CFB Tue 13 Oct, 7:00pm

Jacksonville State to win

our data says 62 in 100 · -151

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game

Massey

Jacksonville State by 5.52.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 3.50.5 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Jacksonville State. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

Model number

50.24.7 pts over the market

Pace number

45.10.4 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

44.90.6 pts under the market

Massey

45.20.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.1, 0.4 pts under the market's 45.5; the model says 50.2, 4.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Florida International ML
Kalshi	—	46.5 -121 53¢	—	—

All 5 books

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Florida International ML
Kalshi	—	46.5 -121 53¢	—	—
Courtside	-3 -113	45.5 -108	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -115	45.5 -110	-148	+124
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	45.5 -112	-156	+130
Fliff	—	45.5 -120	-155	+125

Marked: best for Jacksonville State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jacksonville State -3.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings -3 at -115 (0.8%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -105 (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

Jacksonville State to win · -151

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Jacksonville State to win): DraftKings -148 (2.4%) · FanDuel -156 (1.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 45.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State to win · -151. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.5, only $250 available; Florida International Panthers +3.5, only $145 available; Under 46.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Florida International and Jacksonville State's last game
Massey	-5.5	-194
Market (4 books)	-3.0	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks -3.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	-151	-164	+1.9%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 10-08 13:15.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Oct 15

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Colorado State Rams at Texas State BobcatsColorado State at Texas State

CFB Thu 15 Oct, 7:00pm

Texas State -12

should be Texas State -12 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore Texas State →

Market

Texas State by 12

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game

FPI

Texas State by 10.5

Sagarin

Texas State by 11

Massey

Texas State by 9.5

Nasty Number

Texas State by 120.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

66.5

Model number

66.10.4 pts under the market

Pace number

66.3on the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

75.99.4 pts over the market

Massey

70.54 pts over the market

The pace number is 66.3, 0.2 pts under the market's 66.5; the model says 66.1, 0.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Colorado State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 6 books

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	Colorado State ML
Courtside	-12.5 -103	67.5 -108	-412	+339
DraftKings	-12.5 -105	67.5 -110	-425	+330
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	84¢ -614 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in
FanDuel	-11.5 -106	65.5 -112	-450	+340
Fliff	-12.5 -110	65.5 -120	-460	+335
Polymarket	—	—	-456	—

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +12.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado State): DraftKings +12.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · FanDuel +11.5 at -114 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +335

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +340 (-2.8%) · DraftKings +330 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (-9.1%).

Off the band

The total · 66.5

The pace number is 66.3, 0.2 pts under the market's 66.5; the model says 66.1, 0.4 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -12.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Texas State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Texas State Bobcats -11.5, only $135 available; Colorado State Rams +11.5, only $5 available; Over 67.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-369
Sagarin	-11.0	-382
Massey	-9.5	-311
Market (4 books)	-12.0	-397

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	66.5	73.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado State Rams +12.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+335	+402	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 66.5	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Texas State Bobcats since 10-08 13:15; total has moved up 3.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Colorado State and Texas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Seattle Seahawks at Denver BroncosSeahawks at Broncos

NFL Thu 15 Oct, 7:15pm

Seahawks -2

should be Seahawks -2 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Seahawks by 2

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 2

FPI

Seahawks by 1.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1.5

Massey

Seahawks by 3.5

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

Model number

384.4 pts under the market

Pace number

45.63.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

43.20.9 pts over the market

FPI

40.71.7 pts under the market

The pace number is 45.6, 3.2 pts over the market's 42.3; the model says 38, 4.4 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 42.5 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	+2.5	41.5 -116 52¢	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	+2.5	41.5 -116 52¢	+114 45¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -112	42.5 -108	+116	-141
BetUS	+2 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+112	-132
Courtside	+1.5 -108	42.5 -108	+104	-120
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-122
DraftKings Predictions	—	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	42.5 -105	+118	-138
Fliff	+2.5 -115	42.5 -110	+105	-135
LowVig.ag	+2 -105	42 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	42 -110	+108	-137
ReBet	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+112	-132

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): Caesars or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (-4.1%).

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +118 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Broncos to win): FanDuel +118 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 45¢ (-1.2%) · Caesars +112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +102 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-5.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 42.5

The pace number is 45.6, 3.2 pts over the market's 42.3; the model says 38, 4.4 pts under. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 62°F, 27% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $46 available; Denver Broncos +2.5, only $167 available; Seattle Seahawks -2.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+120
FPI	+1.5	+113
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	+3.5	+171
Market (13 books)	+2.0	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +2.5	-110	-105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+118	+119	-0.3%
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Oct 17

13 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Florida Gators at Texas LonghornsFlorida at Texas

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Texas -9

should be Texas -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 9

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida's last game

FPI

Texas by 15

Sagarin

Texas by 9

Massey

Texas by 11

Nasty Number

Texas by 9.50.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

48.75.1 pts under the market

Pace number

551.2 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.72 pts over the market

Massey

54.10.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 55, 1.2 pts over the market's 53.8; the model says 48.7, 5.1 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+240 28¢

All 9 books

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+240 28¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -112	54.5 -113	-360	+275
betPARX	-9.5 -112	54.5 -113	-360	+275
BetRivers	-9.5 -113	54.5 -114	-375	+275
Courtside	-8.5 -113	53.5 -108	-335	+282
DraftKings	-8.5 -115	53.5 -110	-345	+275
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
FanDuel	-8.5 -106	52.5 -114	-320	+255
Fliff	-8.5 -120	53.5 -115	-355	+265

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -8.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas): FanDuel -8.5 at -106 (-0.5%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.8%).

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -320 at FanDuel

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Texas to win): FanDuel -320 (-0.4%) · DraftKings -345 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 78¢ on the app (-401 all-in) (-4.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 54

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida's last game
FPI	-15.0	-543
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-11.0	-377
Market (7 books)	-9.0	-317

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	54.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Longhorns -8.5	-106	-104	-0.5%
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-320	-314	-0.4%
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Indiana HoosiersOhio State at Indiana

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Indiana +3

should be Indiana +2 · getting 1 pt

A Little Nasty · Indiana, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Ohio State by 3

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 0.52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em2.8 pts our side

Massey

Ohio State by 0.52.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 20.8 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Indiana. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

44.44.4 pts under the market

Pace number

52.43.6 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.16.4 pts over the market

Massey

51.32.5 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.4, 3.6 pts over the market's 48.8; the model says 44.4, 4.4 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Ohio State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 8 books

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Ohio State ML
Bally Bet	+3 -115	48.5 -114	+123	-148
betPARX	+3 -115	48.5 -114	+123	-148
BetRivers	+3 -117	48.5 -115	+120	-150
Courtside	+2.5 -103	48.5 -108	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	47¢ +104 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
FanDuel	+3.5 -128	49.5 -110	+126	-152
Fliff	+2.5 -110	49.5 -115	+115	-150

Marked: best for Indiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana +3.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Indiana): FanDuel +3.5 at -128 (1.7%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · +126 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Indiana to win): FanDuel +126 (1.8%) · DraftKings +120 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

The total · 49

The pace number is 52.4, 3.6 pts over the market's 48.8; the model says 44.4, 4.4 pts under. The two numbers disagree, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Indiana +3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $158 available; Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana's last game
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	+0.5	+101
Market (7 books)	+3.0	+134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers +3.0	-110	-121	+2.3%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	+126	+117	+1.8%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ohio State and Indiana played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State WildcatsKansas at Kansas State

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Kansas +9

should be Kansas +8 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 9

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game

FPI

Kansas State by 6.5

Sagarin

Kansas State by 4.5

Massey

Kansas State by 9

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 80.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

Model number

56.20.7 pts over the market

Pace number

52.33.2 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.20.3 pts under the market

Massey

56.91.4 pts over the market

The pace number is 52.3, 3.2 pts under the market's 55.5; the model says 56.2, 0.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Kansas ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Kansas ML
Bally Bet	-8 -110	55.5 -114	-315	+250
betPARX	-8 -110	55.5 -114	-315	+250
BetRivers	-8 -112	55.5 -115	-335	+250
Courtside	-9.5 -108	55.5 -108	-335	+282
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	55.5 -110	-345	+275
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	79¢ -426 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
Fliff	-9.5 -115	55.5 -120	-335	+255

Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas +9.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kansas): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (-0.6%).

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +275 at DraftKings

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Kansas to win): DraftKings +275 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

The total · 55.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $14 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game
FPI	-6.5	-212
Sagarin	-4.5	-182
Massey	-9.0	-305
Market (6 books)	-9.0	-301

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	56.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +9.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+275	+290	-1.0%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at LSU TigersMississippi State at LSU

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

LSU -12

should be LSU -12 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 12

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State's last game

FPI

LSU by 12.5

Sagarin

LSU by 11

Massey

LSU by 10

Nasty Number

LSU by 120.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

Model number

61.52 pts over the market

Pace number

56.33.2 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

55.93.6 pts under the market

Massey

59.20.3 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.3, 3.2 pts under the market's 59.5; the model says 61.5, 2 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Mississippi State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+296 24¢

All 9 books

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Mississippi State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-12 -109	59.5 -112	-500	+370
betPARX	-12 -109	59.5 -112	-500	+370
BetRivers	-12 -110	59.5 -113	-530	+360
Courtside	-12.5 -103	59.5 -108	-440	+360
DraftKings	-12.5 -105	59.5 -110	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 54¢ -127 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
FanDuel	-11.5 -115	59.5 -115	-480	+365
Fliff	-12.5 -110	59.5 -120	-460	+335

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State +12.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State): FanDuel +11.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.2%).

Not Nasty

Mississippi State to win · +360

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win): FanDuel +365 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +350 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 24¢ (-5.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-6.0%).

Off the band

The total · 59.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State's last game
FPI	-12.5	-423
Sagarin	-11.0	-377
Massey	-10.0	-340
Market (7 books)	-12.0	-432

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	57.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Mississippi State Bulldogs +12.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Mississippi State Bulldogs ML	+360	+402	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Mississippi State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Michigan WolverinesPenn State at Michigan

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Penn State +5.5

should be Penn State +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 5.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Michigan by 2.5

Massey

Michigan by 0.5

Nasty Number

Michigan by 4.51.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

Model number

45.11.6 pts over the market

Pace number

46.53 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

38.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

45.31.8 pts over the market

The pace number is 46.5, 3 pts over the market's 43.5; the model says 45.1, 1.6 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

Penn State +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · +175

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Penn State to win): DraftKings +180 (0.3%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-2.5	-128
Massey	-0.5	+100
Market (6 books)	-5.5	-199

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions +5.5	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	+175	+178	-0.4%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Penn State and Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Oregon DucksNebraska at Oregon

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

Oregon -12.5

should be Oregon -12.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 12.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska's last game

FPI

Oregon by 8

Sagarin

Oregon by 13

Massey

Oregon by 13.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 12.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

Model number

56.71.8 pts under the market

Pace number

56.71.8 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.61.1 pts over the market

Massey

57.31.2 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.7, 1.8 pts under the market's 58.5; the model says 56.7, 1.8 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

Oregon -12.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings -12.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -552

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -520 (-3.1%).

Off the band

The total · 58.5

The pace number is 56.7, 1.8 pts under the market's 58.5; the model says 56.7, 1.8 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska's last game
FPI	-8.0	-284
Sagarin	-13.0	-430
Massey	-13.5	-443
Market (6 books)	-12.5	-488

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	58.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -12.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-552	-420	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Wisconsin Badgers at UCLA BruinsWisconsin at UCLA

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 11:00am

UCLA -3.5

should be UCLA -3.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 3.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin's last game

FPI

UCLA by 3

Sagarin

UCLA by 3

Massey

UCLA by 3.5

Nasty Number

UCLA by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

50.71.7 pts over the market

Pace number

53.74.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

47.41.6 pts under the market

Massey

48.60.4 pts under the market

The pace number is 53.7, 4.7 pts over the market's 49; the model says 50.7, 1.7 pts over. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Wisconsin ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Wisconsin ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -106	48.5 -114	-162	+133
betPARX	-3.5 -106	48.5 -114	-162	+133
BetRivers	-3.5 -107	48.5 -115	-165	+132
Courtside	-3.5 -108	49.5 -108	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	49.5 -110	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
Fliff	-3.5 -115	49.5 -115	-165	+130

Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wisconsin +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wisconsin): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

Wisconsin to win · +133

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Wisconsin to win): DraftKings +136 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-7.7%).

Not Nasty

The total · 49

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins ML, only $50 available; Wisconsin Badgers ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin's last game
FPI	-3.0	-132
Sagarin	-3.0	-130
Massey	-3.5	-153
Market (6 books)	-3.5	-149

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wisconsin Badgers +3.5	-110	-104	-1.3%
Moneyline	Wisconsin Badgers ML	+133	+154	-3.6%
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wisconsin played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Tennessee VolunteersAlabama at Tennessee

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Alabama -5

should be Alabama -5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Alabama by 5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee's last game

FPI

Alabama by 5.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 3

Massey

Alabama by 5.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

Model number

58.11.6 pts over the market

Pace number

58.52 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.12.6 pts over the market

Massey

61.75.2 pts over the market

The pace number is 58.5, 2 pts over the market's 56.5; the model says 58.1, 1.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	+181 34¢	—

All 9 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	+181 34¢	—
Bally Bet	+5.5 -113	56.5 -113	+175	-215
betPARX	+5.5 -113	56.5 -113	+175	-215
BetRivers	+5.5 -113	56.5 -114	+165	-215
Courtside	+4.5 -103	56.5 -108	+163	-188
DraftKings	+4.5 -105	56.5 -110	+160	-192
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	38¢ +150 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
FanDuel	+5.5 -105	56.5 -110	+184	-225
Fliff	+4.5 -110	56.5 -120	+165	-215

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -5.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings -4.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (-4.1%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -192 at DraftKings

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -192 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -225 (-4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 69¢ on the app (-245 all-in) (-5.8%).

Not Nasty

The total · 56.5

The pace number is 58.5, 2 pts over the market's 56.5; the model says 58.1, 1.6 pts over. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $202 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee's last game
FPI	+5.5	+191
Sagarin	+3.0	+131
Massey	+5.5	+190
Market (7 books)	+5.0	+191

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	60.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -5.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-192	-188	-0.5%
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Alabama and Tennessee played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Auburn Tigers at Georgia BulldogsAuburn at Georgia

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Georgia -18.5

should be Georgia -18.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 18.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia's last game

FPI

Georgia by 18

Sagarin

Georgia by 13.5

Massey

Georgia by 18

Nasty Number

Georgia by 18.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

49.70.4 pts under the market

Pace number

54.84.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.43.6 pts under the market

Massey

50.40.3 pts over the market

The pace number is 54.8, 4.8 pts over the market's 50.1; the model says 49.7, 0.4 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 8 books

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Auburn ML
Bally Bet	-18.5 -110	50.5 -113	-1430	+800
betPARX	-18.5 -110	50.5 -113	-1430	+800
BetRivers	-18.5 -112	50.5 -114	-1430	+700
Courtside	-18.5 -108	49.5 -108	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-18.5 -110	49.5 -110	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	93¢ -1901 all-in	12¢ +614 all-in
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1300	+760
Fliff	-18.5 -115	49.5 -115	-1430	+765

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +18.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Auburn): DraftKings or FanDuel +18.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

Blowout line

Auburn to win · +782

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Auburn to win): DraftKings +850 (0.8%) · FanDuel +760 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-2.6%).

Off the band

The total · 50

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $146 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 18.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia's last game
FPI	-18.0	-762
Sagarin	-13.5	-439
Massey	-18.0	-743
Market (7 books)	-18.5	-1191

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers +18.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	+782	+781	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Auburn and Georgia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Duke Blue DevilsNorth Carolina at Duke

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Duke -4.5

should be Duke -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Duke →

Market

Duke by 4.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina's last game

FPI

Duke by 5.5

Sagarin

Duke by 4

Massey

Duke by 9

Nasty Number

Duke by 50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

Model number

46.5on the market

Pace number

48.41.9 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

46.7on the market

Massey

49.42.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 48.4, 1.9 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.5, 0 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	North Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	North Carolina ML
Bally Bet	-5 -108	46.5 -113	-200	+160
betPARX	-5 -108	46.5 -113	-200	+160
BetRivers	-4.5 -114	46.5 -114	-200	+160
Courtside	-4.5 -108	46.5 -108	-181	+157
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	66¢ -212 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in
Fliff	-4.5 -120	46.5 -120	-200	+155

Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Duke): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Duke to win · -185 at DraftKings

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Duke to win): DraftKings -185 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 46.5

The pace number is 48.4, 1.9 pts over the market's 46.5; the model says 46.5, 0 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils ML, only $65 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $278 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina's last game
FPI	-5.5	-197
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-9.0	-309
Market (6 books)	-4.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	48.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils -4.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	-185	-184	-0.1%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Missouri Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsMissouri at Ole Miss

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 2:30pm

Missouri +6.5

should be Missouri +5.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Ole Miss →

Market

Ole Miss by 6.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Missouri's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 2

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 3

Massey

Ole Miss by 8

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 5.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

Model number

57.6on the market

Pace number

56.61.1 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

59.11.5 pts over the market

Massey

56.80.9 pts under the market

The pace number is 56.6, 1.1 pts under the market's 57.6; the model says 57.6, 0.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 8 books

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Missouri ML
Bally Bet	-6.5 -114	57.5 -114	-245	+195
betPARX	-6.5 -114	57.5 -114	-245	+195
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	57.5 -115	-250	+195
Courtside	-6.5 -108	57.5 -108	-225	+194
DraftKings	-6.5 -110	57.5 -110	-230	+190
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in	57.5 54¢ -127 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
FanDuel	-6.5 -110	58.5 -115	-230	+188
Fliff	-6.5 -120	57.5 -120	-250	+190

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +6.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): FanDuel or DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.1%).

Not Nasty

Missouri to win · +192

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Missouri to win): DraftKings +190 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +188 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 35¢ on the app (+171 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

The total · 57.5

The pace number is 56.6, 1.1 pts under the market's 57.6; the model says 57.6, 0.1 pts under. Under the bar, so nothing on the total.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Ole Miss Rebels ML, only $117 available; Missouri Tigers ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Missouri's last game
FPI	-2.0	-114
Sagarin	-3.0	-136
Massey	-8.0	-285
Market (7 books)	-6.5	-218

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	58.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers +6.5	-110	-108	-0.5%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	+192	+197	-0.6%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at Houston CougarsOklahoma State at Houston

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:30pm

Houston -2.5

should be Houston -5.5 · getting 3 pts at FanDuel

A Little Nasty · Houston, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore Houston →

Market

Houston by 3.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game

FPI

Houston by 84.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Houston by 5.52.2 pts our side

Massey

Houston by 95.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Houston by 5.52 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Houston. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Houston's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

Model number

56.31.2 pts under the market

Pace number

54.43.1 pts under the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

61.94.4 pts over the market

Massey

54.92.6 pts under the market

The pace number is 54.4, 3.1 pts under the market's 57.5; the model says 56.3, 1.2 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	Oklahoma State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 8 books

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	Oklahoma State ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -109	57.5 -109	-167	+138
betPARX	-3.5 -109	57.5 -109	-167	+138
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	57.5 -110	-175	+138
Courtside	-3.5 -108	57.5 -108	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	57.5 -110	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 62¢ -178 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	57.5 -106	-140	+116
Fliff	-3.5 -115	57.5 -115	-160	+125

Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Houston): FanDuel -2.5 at -115 (7.5%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.5%).

A Little Nasty

Houston to win · -140 at FanDuel

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 58. That's value. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Houston to win): FanDuel -140 (7.2%) · DraftKings -162 (3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (1.5%).

Same opinion, more variance

The total · 57.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars ML, only $57 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys ML, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHouston by 5.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game
FPI	-8.0	-293
Sagarin	-5.5	-193
Massey	-9.0	-305
Market (7 books)	-3.5	-147

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	58.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Cougars -2.5	-115	-156	+7.5%
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	-140	-190	+7.2%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Kentucky Wildcats at Oklahoma SoonersKentucky at Oklahoma

CFB Sat 17 Oct, 6:30pm

Oklahoma -6.5

should be Oklahoma -6.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Oklahoma by 6.5

The Four

SP+

sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game

FPI

Oklahoma by 6

Sagarin

Oklahoma by 6.5

Massey

Oklahoma by 7.5

Nasty Number

Oklahoma by 6.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5

Model number

41.20.3 pts under the market

Pace number

49.27.7 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

SP+

40.80.7 pts under the market

Massey

45.43.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 49.2, 7.7 pts over the market's 41.5; the model says 41.2, 0.3 pts under. A total posts only inside 12 hours of opening, and this one is past that or still waiting on its teams' last games. No bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Kentucky ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Kentucky ML
Bally Bet	-6.5 -110	41.5 -112	-265	+210
betPARX	-6.5 -110	41.5 -112	-265	+210
BetRivers	-6.5 -112	41.5 -112	-265	+205
Courtside	-6 -108	41.5 -108	-220	+189
DraftKings	-6 -110	41.5 -110	-225	+185
DraftKings Predictions	-5.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in	36¢ +163 all-in
Fliff	-6.5 -115	41.5 -120	-250	+195

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma -6.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oklahoma): DraftKings -6 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.8%).

Not Nasty

Oklahoma to win · -225 at DraftKings

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): DraftKings -225 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-5.2%).

Not Nasty

The total · 41.5

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $94 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game
FPI	-6.0	-202
Sagarin	-6.5	-213
Massey	-7.5	-276
Market (6 books)	-6.5	-226

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners -6.0	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners ML	-225	-210	-1.4%
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Oct 18

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Houston Texans at Jacksonville JaguarsTexans at Jaguars

NFL Sun 18 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Jaguars -3

should be Jaguars -3 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 3

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 4

Sagarin

Jaguars by 3.5

Massey

Jaguars by 5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Model number

48.15.3 pts over the market

Pace number

44.61.8 pts over the market

The ratings' totals

Massey

42.7on the market

FPI

43.70.9 pts over the market

The pace number is 44.6, 1.8 pts over the market's 42.8; the model says 48.1, 5.3 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	43 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	—
Bally Bet	-3 -110	42.5 -110	-165	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3 -115	43 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -110	42.5 -110	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3 -110	42.5 -110	-165	+135
BetUS	-3 -115	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -114	42.5 -110	-162	+138
Courtside	-3 -116	43.5 -108	-171	+148
DraftKings	-3 -118	43.5 -110	-175	+145
DraftKings Predictions	—	—	66¢ -212 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
FanDuel	-3 -115	42.5 -110	-166	+140
Fliff	-3.5 +105	42.5 -115	-175	+140
LowVig.ag	-3 -110	43 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	43 -110	-175	+136
ReBet	-3.5 -105	42.5 -120	-172	+139

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars -3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars -3 at -114 (-1.2%) · FanDuel -3 at -115 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -3 at -118 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · -168

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): Caesars -162 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -166 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -175 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-6.5%).

Not Nasty

The total · 43

The pace number is 44.6, 1.8 pts over the market's 42.8; the model says 48.1, 5.3 pts over. Nothing posted: no main book has a total up, or the game isn't current. No bet.

No total

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Houston Texans ML, only $140 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-107
FPI	-4.0	-182
Sagarin	-3.5	-176
Massey	-5.0	-203
Market (13 books)	-3.0	-155

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars -3.0	-110	-108	-0.3%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	-168	-159	-1.3%
Total	Over 43.0	-110	+101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 9-11-1, -2.7u · Nasty Dogs 2-1, +2.3u · +0.1 pts vs the close on 21 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks9-11-1-2.69 units · -13% ROI

Nasty Dogs2-1+2.32 units · +77% ROI

Vs the close+0.1 ptsbeat the close on 13 of 24 posted picks

Open4calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks9-11-145%-2.69 units21 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 21. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostNew Mexico State +7.0New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers3-22-1.00

Sep 29 to Oct 5

5-4-1 · +0.63 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

LostCincinnati +7.0Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats7-34-1.00

WonUCF +11.5UCF Knights at Houston Cougars17-27+0.93

WonJames Madison -15.5Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes17-45+0.91

PushOhio -3.0Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes13-10+0.00

LostLouisiana -6.0Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns20-23-1.00

LostMiami (OH) -10.0Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks24-20-1.00

WonSan Diego State +4.5Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs29-31+0.94

WonSouth Alabama -12.5UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars35-52+0.91

LostSouth Florida -5.5Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls17-13-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs2-167%+2.32 units3 games

Closing line value: beat the close on 1 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

1-0 · +1.40 units

WonIowa MLIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies41-24+1.40

Sep 29 to Oct 5

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostWashington Commanders MLIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders30-13-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

3-3 · -0.19 units

WonCleveland Browns +3.0Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

WonBaylor +3.5Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils55-19+0.91

LostIllinois -9.5Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini24-17-1.00

LostMassachusetts -5.0Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen38-14-1.00

LostPhiladelphia Eagles +3.5Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles24-20-1.00

WonSan Francisco 49ers -3.0Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers14-24+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty31-3249%-3.76 units63 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 28 of 46. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Oct 6 to 12

3-0 · +3.09 units

WonKennesaw State +2.5Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State Owls27-26+1.08

WonWestern Kentucky MLMissouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltoppers13-34+1.10

WonWashington State +4.0Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggies16-17+0.91

Sep 29 to Oct 5

7-3 · +3.52 units

WonTulsa +3.0North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

LostOver 45.5Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons9-14-1.00

LostUnder 61.0Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams56-26-1.00

WonUnder 47.0Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes31-14+0.91

WonOver 46.5Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29-31+0.91

WonOver 56.5Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack28-31+0.91

LostOver 50.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies7-34-1.00

WonUNLV +1.5California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels31-39+0.86

WonFresno State +2.5Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars26-6+0.91

WonJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals22-17+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty

Its own record, one unit a total, graded at the number, price and book each one posted at. Not counted in the Nasty Pick record. Nothing graded yet. 4 posted and still to play.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	9-11-1	45.0%	-2.7 u
Nasty Dog	2-1	66.7%	+2.3 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	7-7	50.0%	-0.5 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	31-32	49.2%	-3.8 u
Not Nasty	240 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-10 09:36.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 209 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.11	300
SP+	11.23	227
FPI	11.26	237
Massey	11.31	180
Sagarin	12.36	290

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.02	183
Massey	1.00	0.50	0.02	180
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.00	173
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.04	209

The line archive, 300 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 156 times, against it 105, and sat still 39. Our side taken at the open finished 0.66 points better than the close on average over 284 games. The close misses the final by 11.06, the open by 11.32, our raw ratings number by 12.49, Pinnacle's close by 11.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.94, Caesars 11.02.

The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 3-3, +0.25 units, -1.1 pts vs the close on 5.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 48 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	9.56	48
The market	9.56	65
Sagarin	9.90	65
nfelo	10.03	64
FPI	10.04	49

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.01	47
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.01	48
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.04	48
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	47

The line archive, 65 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 10. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 60 games. The close misses the final by 9.78, the open by 9.83, our raw ratings number by 10.01, Pinnacle's close by 9.79. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.93, Polymarket 8.82, Bally Bet 9.31.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.

The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
ratings 0%	307	11.72	11.71	0-0
ratings 5%	307	11.65	11.71	0-0
ratings 15%	307	11.51	11.71	0-0
ratings 45%	307	11.20	11.71	0-0
Sagarin half a vote	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
Sagarin no vote	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
FPI a vote and a half	307	11.34	11.71	0-0
Massey a vote and a half	307	11.34	11.71	0-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

30 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.

Closing line value

+0.01Sides: pts vs close, 34 bets, beat it 53%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
UCF at Oklahoma State	Under	52.1	52.5	-0.4	no call
UConn at Temple	Over	52.8	54.5	+1.7	no call
USC at Penn State	Over	55.2	55	-0.2	no call
Virginia Tech at California	California Golden +9.5	9.5	9	+0.5	no call
Wake Forest at NC State	Wake Forest Demon -2.9	-2.9	-4	+1.1	no call
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins	Over	42	42	+0.0	no call
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers	Los Angeles +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals	Arizona +5	5	5.5	-0.5	no call
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +6.5	6.5	7	-0.5	same side
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints	Under	42	42	+0.0	no call
New York Giants at Washington Commanders	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars	Philadelphia +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 251 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	188	13.5	62-67 (48%)	41-36 (53%)
Massey	190	13.1	40-48 (45%)	16-25 (39%)
The blend	193	13.1	44-47 (48%)	19-25 (43%)

NFL, 55 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	51	11.1	13-19 (41%)	4-8 (33%)
FPI	48	10.4	11-5 (69%)	7-2 (78%)
The blend	51	10.3	11-8 (58%)	3-3 (50%)

The detailed numbers

+0.01Avg points vs close

53%Beat the close

We said	Bets	Predicted	Actual
55-60%	21	56%	48%

The 55-60% band is off its prediction by more than 8 points across 21 bets, so the probability conversion needs a look.

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

60 priced · 4 Nasty Picks · 5 a little nasty · 4 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Tue · audit clean

Not every source loaded: SP+ hasn't changed in 13 days, so it may be stale at the source. Anything that depends on those is missing from the board rather than guessed at. 18 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 18 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 13 Oct, 6:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 78 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.

What's changed since 9:36am

OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.0.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 2.2Delaware Blue Hens at Middle Tennessee Blue Raiderstoward Delaware Blue Hensagainst the public
→ 1.2Florida International Panthers at Jacksonville State Gamecockstoward Jacksonville State Gamecockswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.78Points off per game at that weight

10.78The market on its own

257Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 6%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 257 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
nfelo	64	10.03
The market	365	10.83
Massey	228	10.94
FPI	286	11.05
SP+	227	11.23
Sagarin	355	11.91

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	159-153	51%
1.5 to 3.0	7-10	41%
3.0 to 5.0	10-12	45%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 921360 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.34 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	446	1.61
Kalshi	264	1.55
FanDuel	479	1.54
ReBet	252	1.54
betPARX	257	1.51
Bally Bet	257	1.50
BetRivers	465	1.47
Courtside	221	1.44
LowVig.ag	424	1.43
BetOnline.ag	434	1.43
MyBookie.ag	362	1.40
BetMGM	431	1.30
Hard Rock Bet	256	1.29
Fanatics	401	1.27
theScore Bet	253	1.25
BetUS	363	1.24
Caesars	385	1.20
Bovada	434	1.19
Pinnacle	433	1.14
TOM	417	1.14
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	62	1.10
Polymarket	112	1.06
BetAnything	237	1.06
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	62	1.06
Fliff	258	0.95

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated yesterday
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ unchanged for 12 days
Sagarin updated 5 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
nfelo updated 3 days ago

A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Oct 10

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.