Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Picks with receipts.

Updated Tue 10:23 pm · TOM just now · 101 priced · 1 Nasty Pick · 27 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty

College ratingsSP+tue 4:30pm✓FPItue 4:30pm✓Sagarintue 8:15am✓Masseytue 6:12pm✓All 4 have seen Monday's games.

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty our side, but too thin to betNot Nasty the market has it right

Every game opens. Click one for all four rating systems against the market, our number on the spread and the total, and how both lines have moved since they opened.

Nasty Picks

A pick posted here stays here until kickoff and is graded at the number we posted. Each one says where it stands at today's line.

App State at East CarolinaApp State +7-110+3.2%sat 11:00 am Buck's case ›Still a play Called tue 4:52pm at +7.5 -110. Now App State +7 -110, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 2.5 pts+9.5 open Sunnow +7we say +6

Nasty Dogs

Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.

App State at East CarolinaApp State to win+220+3.5%sat 11:00 am Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.

Damn Near Nasty

Ravens at ColtsColts +3.5-110 · 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%sun 12:00 pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

A Little Nasty

Buck's Take

Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.

Worth a look: 1 side (Colts +3.5). These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.

Why they're not picks yet: Ravens at Colts: NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty. Over eleven seasons they hit 54%; the stale-line rule is the NFL's real edge, so NFL picks come from stale numbers.

Best of the rest:

Jets at Titans. Over 39 -110, 4.4% after the price. Totals are leans here, never picks.
Browns at Jaguars. Browns +9 -110, 3.7% after the price. Sagarin is the holdout at Jaguars by 9.5.
Arkansas at Utah. Over 54.5 -110, 3.3% after the price. Totals are leans here, never picks.
San Diego State at UCLA. San Diego State +11.5 -105, 3.1% after the price. Sagarin is the holdout at UCLA by 16.
Broncos at Chiefs. Under 44 -110, 1.8% after the price. Totals are leans here, never picks.

If you're betting them anyway: Buck's sides are Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5 (the ratings make it Ravens by 1).

Buck

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at Seahawks

NFL tomorrow 7:20 pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 3, our data says Seahawks by 3.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 3

nfelo

Seahawks by 4.5

FPI

Seahawks by 4

Sagarin

Seahawks by 4

Massey

Seahawks by 2.5

We say

Seahawks by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

Massey

44.7on the market

We say

44.7on the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3 -114	44.5 -106	-170	+149

Seahawks -3.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -180

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots), Ben Brown (C, Patriots) and 5 more.

FanDuel still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-175
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-4.0	-162
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-180	-149	-4.5%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at Rams

NFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral

49ers to win

our data says 40 in 100 · +172 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more 49ers than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 3.5

nfelo

Rams by 1.5

FPI

Rams by 3

Sagarin

Rams by 4

Massey

a pick'em

We say

Rams by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

49.91.7 pts over the market

We say

49.91.7 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	49ers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-200 65¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -112	48 -111	-205	+178

49ers +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +172

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: 49ers loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

A Little Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · +172. A price bet, 49ers loses more often than not.

Also out: Keir Thomas II (LB, Rams), Mykel Williams (DE, 49ers), Aaron Donald (DT, Rams).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-117
FPI	-3.0	-142
Sagarin	-4.0	-165
Massey	pk	-102
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-185

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+172	+148	+3.5%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-116	+1.4%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at Miami

CFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm

No bet

market says Miami by 56.5, our data says Miami by 57.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 56.5.

The spread

← more Florida A&M than the bookmore Miami →

Market

Miami by 56.5

Sagarin

Miami by 59.5

We say

Miami by 57.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Florida A&M ML
Kalshi	—	63.5 -103 49¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-56.5 -124	62.5 -104	—	—

Miami -56.5 · -110

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 24% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 63.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 57.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Florida A&M
FPI	doesn't rate Florida A&M
Sagarin	-59.5	—
Massey	rates Florida A&M and Miami on different scales
Market (7 books)	-56.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Miami Hurricanes -56.5	-110	+138	-10.3%

The line is -56.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Missouri at Kansas

GameThe call

Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at Kansas

CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm

Over 50.5

should be 51.2 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Kansas →

Market

Missouri by 5TOM, -110

SP+

Missouri by 31.8 pts our side

FPI

Missouri by 41 pts our side

Sagarin

Missouri by 5.50.5 pts against us

Massey

Kansas by 26.9 pts our side

We say

Missouri by 4.50.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Kansas. Sagarin at Missouri by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

52.21.7 pts over the market

Massey

55.24.7 pts over the market

We say

53.73.2 pts over the market

Over 50.5 is a lean. Our total is 3.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Missouri ML
TOM	+5 -110	50.5 -110	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	50 -112	+175	-212

Kansas +5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +170 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.3 toward Kansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+140
FPI	+4.0	+152
Sagarin	+5.5	+180
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (12 books)	+5.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+170	+165	+0.8%
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +5.0	-110	-111	+0.2%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston College

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 54.5

should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boston College by 3, we say Boston College by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Rutgers than the bookmore Boston College →

Market

Boston College by 3TOM, -108

SP+

Rutgers by 1.5

FPI

Boston College by 4.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Boston College by 2.5

We say

Boston College by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boston College by 3.5 to Boston College by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM, Over -104

SP+ pace

59.34.8 pts over the market

Massey

55.51 pts over the market

We say

57.42.9 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a lean. Our total is 2.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Rutgers ML
TOM	-3 -108	54.5 -104	-155	+130
Kalshi	-3.5	54.5 -103 49¢	-167 61¢	—
Pinnacle	-3 -117	54.5 -101	-164	+139

Rutgers +3.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Rutgers to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 56. That's 2.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Rutgers).

Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles -3.5, only $13 available; Under 54.5, only $416 available; Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $425 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBoston College by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.5	+118
FPI	-4.5	-162
Sagarin	pk	-101
Massey	-2.5	-130
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	57.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.0	-112	-105	-1.6%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+130	+132	-0.4%
Total	Over 54.5	-104	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at Louisville

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Louisville by 37, our data says Louisville by 36

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Louisville by 37.

The spread

← more Villanova than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 37

Sagarin

Louisville by 33.5

We say

Louisville by 360.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Villanova ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-36.5 -120	56.5 -115	—	—

Villanova +37.0 · -110

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Villanova to win · +3233

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $187 available; Under 56.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 3630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Villanova
FPI	doesn't rate Villanova
Sagarin	-33.5	—
Massey	rates Villanova and Louisville on different scales
Market (7 books)	-37.0	-2475

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Villanova Wildcats +37.0	-110	+146	-11.7%
Moneyline	Villanova Wildcats ML	+3233	+13171	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC State

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says NC State by 30.5, our data says NC State by 30

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says NC State by 30.5.

The spread

← more Richmond than the bookmore NC State →

Market

NC State by 30.5

Sagarin

NC State by 29

We say

NC State by 300.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Richmond +30.5 · -110

Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Richmond to win · +2500

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 27% chance of rain.

Full detail

We settle onNC State by 3030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Richmond
FPI	doesn't rate Richmond
Sagarin	-29.0	-3965
Massey	rates Richmond and NC State on different scales
Market (7 books)	-30.5	-2548

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Richmond Spiders +30.5	-110	+151	-12.6%
Moneyline	Richmond Spiders ML	+2500	+4631	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at Virginia

CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Virginia by 44.5, our data says Virginia by 45

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 44.5.

The spread

← more Norfolk State than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 44.5

Sagarin

Virginia by 46.5

We say

Virginia by 450.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Virginia -44.5 · -110

Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 4530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Norfolk State
FPI	doesn't rate Norfolk State
Sagarin	-46.5	—
Massey	rates Norfolk State and Virginia on different scales
Market (7 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -44.5	-110	+152	-12.8%

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 12

79 gamesBest: App State +7.0, Nasty Pick

GameThe call

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

App State +7

should be App State +6 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +8.5

Nasty PickBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Take App State +7.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says East Carolina by 7, we say East Carolina by 6.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore East Carolina →

Market

East Carolina by 7TOM, -110

SP+

East Carolina by 1.55.7 pts our side

FPI

East Carolina by 4.52.7 pts our side

Sagarin

East Carolina by 5.51.5 pts our side

Massey

East Carolina by 2.54.3 pts our side

We say

East Carolina by 61.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean App State, and the blend clears the bar. That's the pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but App State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

SP+ pace

54.81.7 pts under the market

Massey

54.71.8 pts under the market

We say

54.71.8 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	App State ML
TOM	-7 -110	56.5 -110	-280	+220
Pinnacle	-7.5 +100	56.5 -107	-313	+246

App State +7.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

The play

App State to win · +220 at TOM

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 31. That's value. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: App State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

A Little Nasty

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 40% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEast Carolina by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-115
FPI	-4.5	-157
Sagarin	-5.5	-179
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-268

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Appalachian State Mountaineers ML	+220	+188	+3.5%
Spread	Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.0	-110	-125	+3.2%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

San Diego State +11.5

should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5

A Little Nasty · San Diego StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 55.0 as well.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 11.5TOM, -115

SP+

UCLA by 8.53.2 pts our side

FPI

UCLA by 65.5 pts our side

Sagarin

UCLA by 164.6 pts against us

Massey

UCLA by 38.6 pts our side

We say

UCLA by 101.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean San Diego State. Sagarin at UCLA by 16 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

51.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.23.8 pts under the market

We say

51.63.4 pts under the market

Under 55 is a lean. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-11.5 -115	55 -110	-465	+335
Pinnacle	-11.5 -114	55 -109	-492	+357

San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

San Diego State to win · +335 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: moneyline -445 here against -382 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-244
FPI	-6.0	-190
Sagarin	-16.0	-616
Massey	-3.0	-135
Market (12 books)	-11.5	-445

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +11.5	-105	-119	+3.1%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+335	+302	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 3.5.

TOM: moneyline -445 here against -382 consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

Over 55

should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Boise State →

Market

Boise State by 8.5TOM, -110

SP+

Boise State by 5.53.2 pts our side

FPI

Boise State by 80.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Boise State by 9.50.9 pts against us

Massey

Boise State by 26.4 pts our side

We say

Boise State by 80.6 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Memphis. Sagarin at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM, Over -115

SP+ pace

616 pts over the market

Massey

57.12.1 pts over the market

We say

59.14.1 pts over the market

Over 55 is a lean. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	Memphis ML
TOM	-8.5 -110	55 -115	-345	+270
Pinnacle	-9 -111	54.5 -116	-364	+280

Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · +270 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Memphis, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-176
FPI	-8.0	-234
Sagarin	-9.5	-275
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+270	+234	+2.9%
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.5	-110	-121	+2.4%
Total	Over 55.0	-115	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus; moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&M

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Over 50.5

should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arizona State than the bookmore Texas A&M →

Market

Texas A&M by 14.5TOM, -104

SP+

Texas A&M by 17.52.9 pts our side

FPI

Texas A&M by 161.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Texas A&M by 15.51 pts our side

Massey

Texas A&M by 311.7 pts against us

We say

Texas A&M by 150.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Texas A&M. Massey at Texas A&M by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

51.81.3 pts over the market

Massey

53.93.4 pts over the market

We say

52.82.3 pts over the market

Over 50.5 is a lean. Our total is 2.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Arizona State ML
TOM	-14.5 -104	50.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-14 -111	50.5 -105	-646	+440

Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Texas A&M to win · -700

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas A&M by 1521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-728
FPI	-16.0	-603
Sagarin	-15.5	-571
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-14.5	-490

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -14.5	-104	-111	+1.6%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-700	-520	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 40.5

should be 41 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 40.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore Iowa →

Market

Iowa by 14TOM, -106

SP+

Iowa by 173.1 pts our side

FPI

Iowa by 14on the market

Sagarin

Iowa by 17.53.4 pts our side

Massey

Iowa by 2.511.4 pts against us

We say

Iowa by 14.50.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Iowa. Massey at Iowa by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

40.80.3 pts over the market

Massey

44.74.2 pts over the market

We say

42.72.2 pts over the market

Over 40.5 is a lean. Our total is 2.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.8 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.8 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.8 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-14 -106	40.5 -110	-600	+430
Pinnacle	-14 -105	41 -104	-605	+419

Iowa -14.0 · -106 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · -600 at TOM

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 31% chance of rain.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -463 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-700
FPI	-14.0	-476
Sagarin	-17.5	-728
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (12 books)	-14.0	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0	-106	-114	+1.8%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-600	-493	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 40.8 consensus; moneyline -574 here against -463 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Middle Tennessee +13.5

should be Middle Tennessee +12 · getting 1.5 pts · was +17.5

A Little Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Marshall by 13.5, we say Marshall by 12. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

Marshall by 13.5TOM, -115

SP+

Marshall by 8.54.9 pts our side

FPI

Marshall by 49.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Marshall by 11.51.8 pts our side

Massey

Marshall by 2.510.8 pts our side

We say

Marshall by 121.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Middle Tennessee. Our blended number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes a 3.0% edge after the price for a pick, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Over -105

SP+ pace

65.48.4 pts over the market

Massey

552 pts under the market

We say

60.23.2 pts over the market

Over 57 is a lean. Our total is 3.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Middle Tennessee ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	57 -105	-580	+410
Kalshi	-13.5	56.5 -116 52¢	-524 83¢	—
Pinnacle	-13.5 -109	57 -107	-641	+437

Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Middle Tennessee to win · +410 at TOM

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 57.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 41% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd -13.5, only $485 available; Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -456 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 1221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-252
FPI	-4.0	-154
Sagarin	-11.5	-361
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (12 books)	-13.5	-555

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	60.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.5	-105	-107	+0.5%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+410	+372	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.0	-105	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -456 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at Illinois

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Over 51

should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 5.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Illinois →

Market

Illinois by 6TOM, -110

SP+

Illinois by 32.9 pts our side

FPI

Illinois by 32.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Illinois by 92.9 pts against us

Massey

Illinois by 23.8 pts our side

We say

Illinois by 5.50.6 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Duke. Sagarin at Illinois by 9 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -112

SP+ pace

60.19.1 pts over the market

Massey

532 pts over the market

We say

56.55.5 pts over the market

Over 51 is a lean. Our total is 5.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Duke ML
TOM	-6 -110	51 -112	-225	+175
Kalshi	-5.5	51.5 -112 51¢	-229 68¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-6 -102	51.5 -106	-218	+180

Duke +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Duke to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 5.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -5.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -215 here against -195 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.0	-139
FPI	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-9.0	-260
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-215

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils +6.0	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	+175	+177	-0.3%
Total	Over 51.0	-112	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -195 consensus.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Michigan to win

our data says 37 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

A Little Nasty · MichiganBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Michigan. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 5. At +175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Oklahoma by 5.5TOM, -110

SP+

Oklahoma by 7.51.8 pts against us

FPI

Oklahoma by 50.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Oklahoma by 1.54.1 pts our side

Massey

Michigan by 27.6 pts our side

We say

Oklahoma by 50.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Michigan. SP+ at Oklahoma by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

SP+ pace

41.52 pts under the market

Massey

44.71.2 pts over the market

We say

43.10.4 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Oklahoma ML
TOM	+5.5 -110	43.5 -110	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -108	43 -115	+182	-220

Michigan +5.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Michigan to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan to win · +175 at TOM. A price bet, Michigan loses more often than not.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+218
FPI	+5.0	+174
Sagarin	+1.5	+115
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	+5.5	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+175	+171	+0.6%
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +5.5	-110	-110	+0.1%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at Army

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Over 46.5

should be 47.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Army →

Market

Army by 3.5TOM, -110

SP+

Army by 7.5

FPI

Army by 2.5

Sagarin

Army by 5

Massey

Army by 2

We say

Army by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3 to Army by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM, Over -108

SP+ pace

55.48.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.24.7 pts over the market

We say

53.36.8 pts over the market

Over 46.5 is a lean. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3.4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.4 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3.4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	46.5 -108	-171	+141
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	—	-182 63¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	46.5 -114	-176	+148

Army -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Army to win · -171 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 6.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $13 available; Under 47.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-223
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-5.0	-166
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	53.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Army Black Knights -3.5	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Army Black Knights ML	-171	-145	-3.8%
Total	Over 46.5	-108	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at Minnesota

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 54.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore Minnesota →

Market

Mississippi State by 1TOM, -114

SP+

Minnesota by 2.5

FPI

Mississippi State by 4

Sagarin

Minnesota by 3

Massey

Minnesota by 2

We say

Minnesota by 0.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Mississippi State by 1. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

52.13.4 pts under the market

Massey

54.31.2 pts under the market

We say

53.22.3 pts under the market

Under 55.5 is a lean. Our total is 2.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	+1 -114	55.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	55.5 -103 49¢	-103 49¢	-112 51¢
Pinnacle	+1 -115	55 -106	-110	-106

Minnesota +1.0 · -114 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · -108

We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.

Not Nasty

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Mississippi State).

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +1.5, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +101 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 0.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.5	-129
FPI	+4.0	+154
Sagarin	-3.0	-139
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0	-114	-109	-1.2%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-108	-103	-1.1%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +101 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 57

should be 56.3 · getting 0.7 pts · was 56.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 7TOM, -110

SP+

Pittsburgh by 6.5

FPI

Pittsburgh by 9

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 8.5

Massey

Pittsburgh by 2.5

We say

Pittsburgh by 70.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Under -117

SP+ pace

51.25.8 pts under the market

Massey

58.11.1 pts over the market

We say

54.72.3 pts under the market

Under 57 is a lean. Our total is 2.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	UCF ML
TOM	-7 -110	57 -103	-270	+210
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	57.5 -103 49¢	-263 71¢	+217 30¢
Pinnacle	-7 -108	57 -101	-282	+226

Pittsburgh -7.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Pittsburgh to win · -270 at TOM

We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -117 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 37% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UCF). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $191 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-9.0	-261
Sagarin	-8.5	-245
Massey	-2.5	-130
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-258

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	54.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers -7.0	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	-270	-214	-4.8%
Total	Under 57.0	-117	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UAB

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Over 55.5

should be 56.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore UAB →

Market

UAB by 10TOM, -110

SP+

UAB by 19.5

FPI

UAB by 12

Sagarin

UAB by 8

Massey

UAB by 2.5

We say

UAB by 100 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Over -108

SP+ pace

60.85.3 pts over the market

Massey

58.93.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

58.83.3 pts over the market

Over 55.5 is a lean. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	UL Monroe ML
TOM	-10 -110	55.5 -108	-375	+285
Kalshi	—	55.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-10 -103	56 -107	-396	+300

UL Monroe +10.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UL Monroe to win · +285 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers -10.5, only $109 available; UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5, only $14 available; Under 55.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -317 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUAB by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.5	-951
FPI	-12.0	-372
Sagarin	-8.0	-232
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	58.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +10.0	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+285	+295	-0.6%
Total	Over 55.5	-108	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -359 here against -317 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm

Over 57

should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3.5, we say UNLV by 4. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore North Texas →

Market

UNLV by 3.5TOM, -110

SP+

UNLV by 13.5

FPI

UNLV by 7

Sagarin

UNLV by 3

Massey

North Texas by 2.5

We say

UNLV by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 5 to UNLV by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

65.68.6 pts over the market

Massey

62.65.6 pts over the market

We say

64.17.1 pts over the market

Over 57 is a lean. Our total is 7.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	UNLV ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	57 -110	+145	-175
Kalshi	+3.5	57.5 -107 50¢	+140 40¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -108	57 -109	+147	-175

UNLV -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UNLV to win · -175 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green +3.5, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUNLV by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.5	+435
FPI	+7.0	+207
Sagarin	+3.0	+137
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	64.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UNLV Rebels -3.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	-175	-149	-3.7%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Over 51

should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Sam Houston →

Market

Tulsa by 13.5TOM, -102

SP+

Tulsa by 17

FPI

Tulsa by 11

Sagarin

Tulsa by 11.5

Massey

Sam Houston by 1.5

We say

Tulsa by 130.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 13.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -117

SP+ pace

554 pts over the market

Massey

51.40.4 pts over the market

We say

53.22.2 pts over the market

Over 51 is a lean. Our total is 2.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.1 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.1 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.1 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Sam Houston spread	Total (over)	Sam Houston ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	+13.5 -102	51 -117	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+426 18¢	—
Pinnacle	+14 -112	51 -114	+424	-616

Sam Houston +13.5 · -102 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Sam Houston to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 27% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $166 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTulsa by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.0	+691
FPI	+11.0	+331
Sagarin	+11.5	+358
Massey	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5	-102	+105	-1.8%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+400	+422	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-117	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Over 58.5

should be 59.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4.5, we say Navy by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →

Market

Navy by 4.5TOM, -110

SP+

Navy by 13.5

FPI

Navy by 12.5

Sagarin

Navy by 5

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 1.5

We say

Navy by 5.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

67.79.2 pts over the market

Massey

62.13.6 pts over the market

Weather

-1.084% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

63.95.4 pts over the market

Over 58.5 is a lean. Our total is 5.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Navy ML
TOM	+4.5 -110	58.5 -110	+170	-200
Kalshi	+4.5 -107 50¢	58.5 -112 51¢	—	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4.5 -103	58 -114	+174	-209

Navy -4.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -200 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 68 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.5	+451
FPI	+12.5	+396
Sagarin	+5.0	+174
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (12 books)	+4.5	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	63.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -4.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-200	-178	-2.7%
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

Under 47.5

weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Air Force →

Market

North Dakota State by 2TOM, -110

SP+

Air Force by 0.5

FPI

North Dakota State by 4

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 2.5

Massey

Air Force by 2

We say

North Dakota State by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

SP+ pace

49.52 pts over the market

Massey

49.52 pts over the market

Weather

-3.520 mph wind, takes 3.5 points off

We say

461.5 pts under the market

Under 47.5 is a weather lean. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Air Force spread	Total (over)	Air Force ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+2 -110	47.5 -108	+110	-130
Pinnacle	+2.5 -108	47.5 -105	+109	-128

Air Force +2.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · +110 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 3.5 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-108
FPI	+4.0	+150
Sagarin	+2.5	+130
Massey	-2.0	-121
Market (12 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons +2.0	-110	+105	-3.5%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	+110	+120	-2.3%
Total	Under 47.5	-112	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pm

Over 54.5

should be 56.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 56.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 12, we say Utah by 11.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 12TOM, -110

SP+

Utah by 12

FPI

Utah by 11

Sagarin

Utah by 10.5

Massey

Utah by 3

We say

Utah by 11.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 13.5 to Utah by 12. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

64.710.2 pts over the market

Massey

59.44.9 pts over the market

We say

62.17.6 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a lean. Our total is 7.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-12 -110	54.5 -110	-475	+345
Kalshi	-13.5 +101 48¢	55.5	-490 82¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-12 -111	55.5 -101	-501	+362

Arkansas +12.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +345 at TOM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 7.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -12.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $255 available; Over 55.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-368
FPI	-11.0	-335
Sagarin	-10.5	-309
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (11 books)	-12.0	-455

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	62.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +12.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+345	+356	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No bet

market says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 9, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Florida International →

Market

Florida International by 10.5TOM, -108

SP+

Florida International by 0.510.2 pts our side

FPI

Florida International by 2.57.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida International by 73.6 pts our side

Massey

Florida International by 2.58.2 pts our side

We say

Florida International by 91.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Buffalo. Our blended number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes a 3.0% edge after the price for a pick, and this one is under it. The raw ratings sit 8 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

SP+ pace

452.5 pts under the market

Massey

48.30.8 pts over the market

Weather

-1.086% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

45.71.8 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 47.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-10.5 -108	47.5 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 +101 48¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	—
Pinnacle	-10.5 -101	48 -101	-409	+307

Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $73 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $325 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida International by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-103
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-7.0	-208
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.5	-112	-130	+3.6%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+310	+258	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.7.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYU

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Arizona +7.5

should be Arizona +7.5 · was +7

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore BYU →

Market

BYU by 7.5TOM, -116

SP+

BYU by 6.51.1 pts our side

FPI

BYU by 9.52 pts against us

Sagarin

BYU by 80.7 pts against us

Massey

BYU by 2.55.1 pts our side

We say

BYU by 7.50 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Arizona. FPI at BYU by 9.5 and Sagarin at BYU by 8 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Over -108

SP+ pace

51.83.8 pts over the market

Massey

51.93.9 pts over the market

We say

51.83.8 pts over the market

Over 48 is a lean. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Arizona ML
TOM	-7.5 -116	48 -108	-295	+235
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -136 56¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 -105	47.5 -113	-302	+239

Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Arizona to win · +235 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-9.5	-278
Sagarin	-8.0	-240
Massey	-2.5	-128
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Wildcats +7.5	-104	-118	+3.2%
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	+235	+222	+1.2%
Total	Over 48.0	-108	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 3.8.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Kent State by 13, our data says Kent State by 9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 13, we say Kent State by 9.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Wofford than the bookmore Kent State →

Market

Kent State by 13

Sagarin

Kent State by 112.3 pts our side

We say

Kent State by 9.53.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Wofford. Our blended number is 3.7 points off the book; it takes a 3.0% edge after the price for a pick, and this one is under it. The raw ratings sit 12 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wofford +13.0 · -110

Covers 58 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Wofford to win · +475

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onKent State by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Wofford
FPI	doesn't rate Wofford
Sagarin	-1.0	-110
Massey	rates Wofford and Kent State on different scales
Market (3 books)	-13.0	-482

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Wofford Terriers +13.0	-110	-140	+5.9%
Moneyline	Wofford Terriers ML	+475	+279	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at Kentucky

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Kentucky +10

should be Kentucky +10 · was +8.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

Alabama by 10TOM, -105

SP+

Alabama by 9.50.7 pts our side

FPI

Alabama by 143.8 pts against us

Sagarin

Alabama by 8.51.7 pts our side

Massey

Kentucky by 1.511.4 pts our side

We say

Alabama by 100.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Kentucky. FPI at Alabama by 14 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

42.47.1 pts under the market

Massey

50.51 pts over the market

We say

46.43.1 pts under the market

Under 49.5 is a lean. Our total is 3.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	Alabama ML
TOM	+10 -105	49.5 -110	+310	-400
Kalshi	+10.5 -112 51¢	49.5	+313 23¢	-404 79¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -112	49 -113	+315	-422

Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -10.5, only $102 available; Over 49.5, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+273
FPI	+14.0	+460
Sagarin	+8.5	+245
Massey	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	+10.0	+324

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +10.0	-105	-109	+1.0%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+310	+287	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

South Alabama to win

our data says 27 in 100 · +285 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Tulane →

Market

Tulane by 9.5TOM, -112

SP+

Tulane by 63.3 pts our side

FPI

Tulane by 11.51.8 pts against us

Sagarin

Tulane by 10.51 pts against us

Massey

Tulane by 36.7 pts our side

We say

Tulane by 9.50.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean South Alabama. FPI at Tulane by 11.5 and Sagarin at Tulane by 10.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

SP+ pace

52.93.4 pts over the market

Massey

49.6on the market

Weather

-1.084% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

50.20.7 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.4 points since it opened, from 50.9 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-9.5 -112	49.5 -110	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 +105 47¢	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -103	49.5 -109	-372	+285

South Alabama +9.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM. A price bet, South Alabama loses more often than not.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars +9.5, only $495 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -305 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTulane by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.0	-193
FPI	-11.5	-342
Sagarin	-10.5	-311
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	+285	+271	+1.0%
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars +9.5	-108	-108	+0.0%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -305 consensus.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says North Carolina by 35.5, our data says North Carolina by 34.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Carolina by 35.5.

The spread

← more East Tennessee State than the bookmore North Carolina →

Market

North Carolina by 35.5

Sagarin

North Carolina by 30.5

We say

North Carolina by 34.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

East Tennessee State +35.5 · -110

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

East Tennessee State to win · +4000

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 43% chance of rain.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Carolina by 34.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate East Tennessee State
FPI	doesn't rate East Tennessee State
Sagarin	-30.5	—
Massey	rates East Tennessee State and North Carolina on different scales
Market (3 books)	-35.5	-4086

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	East Tennessee State Buccaneers +35.5	-110	+136	-10.1%
Moneyline	East Tennessee State Buccaneers ML	+4000	+10112	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at Indiana

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Indiana by 56, our data says Indiana by 57.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 56.

The spread

← more Howard than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Indiana by 56

Sagarin

Indiana by 61

We say

Indiana by 57.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Howard ML
Kalshi	—	64.5	—	—

Indiana -56.0 · -110

Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 64.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 57.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Howard
FPI	doesn't rate Howard
Sagarin	-61.0	—
Massey	rates Howard and Indiana on different scales
Market (5 books)	-56.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -56.0	-110	+131	-9.2%

The line is -56.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Kansas State by 19, our data says Kansas State by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.

The spread

← more Washington State than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 19TOM, -110

SP+

Kansas State by 18.5

FPI

Kansas State by 15.5

Sagarin

Kansas State by 17.5

Massey

Kansas State by 3

We say

Kansas State by 180.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 23.5 to Kansas State by 19. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

SP+ pace

48.8on the market

Massey

52.33.3 pts over the market

We say

50.51.5 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-19 -110	49 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -113	49.5 -103	-1095	+645

Washington State +19.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Washington State to win · +686

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 41% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -16.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.8 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-853
FPI	-15.5	-558
Sagarin	-17.5	-724
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-19.0	-708

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	50.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +19.0	-110	+114	-5.8%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+686	+809	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.2 consensus.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Under 57

should be 55.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 60.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oregon by 22.5TOM, -104

SP+

Oregon by 20.5

FPI

Oregon by 22

Sagarin

Oregon by 23.5

Massey

a pick'em

We say

Oregon by 220.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Under -104

SP+ pace

53.83.2 pts under the market

Massey

52.44.6 pts under the market

We say

53.13.9 pts under the market

Under 57 is a lean. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.8 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.8 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.8 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Oregon ML
TOM	+22.5 -104	57 -116	—	—
Pinnacle	+22.5 -109	57.5 -105	+949	-1958

Oklahoma State +22.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oklahoma State to win · +1052

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.9 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F, 37% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 2230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.5	+1122
FPI	+22.0	+1383
Sagarin	+23.5	+1721
Massey	pk	-102
Market (12 books)	+22.5	+1044

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5	-104	+131	-7.7%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+1052	+1397	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-104	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 19.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 19.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.5.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Virginia Tech →

Market

Virginia Tech by 19.5TOM, -108

SP+

Virginia Tech by 21

FPI

Virginia Tech by 17.5

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 21

Massey

Virginia Tech by 2.5

We say

Virginia Tech by 19.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 18 to Virginia Tech by 19.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

SP+ pace

46.53.5 pts under the market

Massey

52.42.4 pts over the market

We say

49.40.6 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.8 points since it opened, from 50.8 to 50. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-19.5 -108	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5	50.5 -107 50¢	-1087 91¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-19.5 -109	50.5 -104	-1180	+679

Old Dominion +19.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Old Dominion to win · +709

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -20.5, only $239 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 19.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-21.0	-1153
FPI	-17.5	-750
Sagarin	-21.0	-1217
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (12 books)	-19.5	-735

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +19.5	-112	+128	-8.9%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+709	+952	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at Temple

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

Over 49.5

should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 pts

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Penn State by 24TOM, -110

SP+

Penn State by 22.5

FPI

Penn State by 22

Sagarin

Penn State by 26

Massey

Temple by 0.5

We say

Penn State by 23.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 23.5 to Penn State by 24. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

58.89.3 pts over the market

Massey

52.22.7 pts over the market

We say

55.56 pts over the market

Over 49.5 is a lean. Our total is 6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Penn State ML
TOM	+24 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+24 -107	49.5 -115	+1088	-2436

Temple +24.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Temple to win · +1300

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 23.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+22.5	+1469
FPI	+22.0	+1411
Sagarin	+26.0	+2418
Massey	-0.5	-105
Market (12 books)	+24.0	+1217

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +24.0	-110	+137	-10.3%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+1300	+1740	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at Purdue

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No bet

market says Wake Forest by 3, our data says Wake Forest by 2

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 3, we say Wake Forest by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Wake Forest by 3TOM, -111

SP+

Purdue by 2

FPI

Wake Forest by 3.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Purdue by 2

We say

Wake Forest by 20.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Wake Forest by 4.5 to Wake Forest by 3. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

SP+ pace

463 pts under the market

Massey

53.54.5 pts over the market

We say

49.70.7 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.7 points since it opened, from 49.7 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3 -111	49 -116	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5	49.5 -116 52¢	+124 43¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+3 -112	50 -107	+128	-151

Purdue +3.0 · -111 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +125 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -116 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $4 available; Under 49.5, only $281 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.0	-121
FPI	+3.5	+141
Sagarin	pk	+102
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +3.0	-111	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+125	+126	-0.2%
Total	Over 49.0	-116	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at Georgia

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 am

No bet

market says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 41

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 41TOM, -110

SP+

Georgia by 44

FPI

Georgia by 38.5

Sagarin

Georgia by 42

Massey

Georgia by 4.5

We say

Georgia by 410.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Georgia by 39 to Georgia by 41. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM

SP+ pace

57.62.1 pts over the market

Massey

54.31.2 pts under the market

We say

560.5 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.1 points since it opened, from 53.4 to 55.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Western Kentucky ML
TOM	-41 -110	55.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-41 -111	55.5 -111	—	—

Western Kentucky +41.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Over 55.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F, 46% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -41.0 (the market moved 5.4 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $464 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 4121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-44.0	—
FPI	-38.5	—
Sagarin	-42.0	—
Massey	-4.5	-157
Market (11 books)	-41.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0	-110	-164	+9.7%
Total	Over 55.5	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pm

No bet

market says Central Michigan by 25, our data says Central Michigan by 21

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Central Michigan by 25.

The spread

← more Colgate than the bookmore Central Michigan →

Market

Central Michigan by 25

Sagarin

Central Michigan by 11

We say

Central Michigan by 214.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Colgate ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

Colgate +25.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Colgate to win · +1226

We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $256 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onCentral Michigan by 2130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Colgate
FPI	doesn't rate Colgate
Sagarin	-11.0	-340
Massey	rates Colgate and Central Michigan on different scales
Market (3 books)	-25.0	-1278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Colgate Raiders +25.0	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	Colgate Raiders ML	+1226	+1164	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pm

No bet

market says Miami (OH) by 31.5, our data says Miami (OH) by 28

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami (OH) by 31.5.

The spread

← more Holy Cross than the bookmore Miami (OH) →

Market

Miami (OH) by 31.5

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 14.5

We say

Miami (OH) by 283.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	Holy Cross ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+2243 4¢

Holy Cross +31.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Holy Cross to win · +2400

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 2821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Holy Cross
FPI	doesn't rate Holy Cross
Sagarin	-14.5	-495
Massey	rates Holy Cross and Miami (OH) on different scales
Market (3 books)	-31.5	-2453

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Holy Cross Crusaders +31.5	-110	+110	-4.9%
Moneyline	Holy Cross Crusaders ML	+2400	+3421	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball State

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No bet

market says Ball State by 15.5, our data says Ball State by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ball State by 15.5, we say Ball State by 13.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Stony Brook than the bookmore Ball State →

Market

Ball State by 15.5

Sagarin

Ball State by 6.5

We say

Ball State by 13.52 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Stony Brook +15.5 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Discounted

Stony Brook to win · +580

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 24% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onBall State by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Stony Brook
FPI	doesn't rate Stony Brook
Sagarin	-6.5	-197
Massey	rates Stony Brook and Ball State on different scales
Market (3 books)	-15.5	-623

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Stony Brook Seawolves +15.5	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Stony Brook Seawolves ML	+580	+458	priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at Akron

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Akron by 28.5, our data says Akron by 23.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Akron by 28.5.

The spread

← more Robert Morris than the bookmore Akron →

Market

Akron by 28.5

Sagarin

Akron by 16

We say

Akron by 23.55.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Robert Morris ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	—

Robert Morris +28.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Robert Morris to win · +2043

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onAkron by 23.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Robert Morris
FPI	doesn't rate Robert Morris
Sagarin	-16.0	-608
Massey	rates Robert Morris and Akron on different scales
Market (3 books)	-28.5	-2111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Robert Morris Colonials +28.5	-110	-116	+1.4%
Moneyline	Robert Morris Colonials ML	+2043	+1685	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at Syracuse

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore Syracuse →

Market

Syracuse by 3.5TOM, +100

SP+

Syracuse by 8.5

FPI

Syracuse by 8.5

Sagarin

Syracuse by 1.5

Massey

Syracuse by 2.5

We say

Syracuse by 40.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Syracuse by 3 to Syracuse by 3.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

SP+ pace

53.63.4 pts under the market

Massey

57.30.3 pts over the market

We say

55.51.5 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Syracuse spread	Total (over)	Syracuse ML	California ML
TOM	-3.5 +100	57 -110	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5	56.5 -112 51¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +100	56 -117	-170	+143

Syracuse -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Syracuse to win · -165 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -3.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSyracuse by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-244
FPI	-8.5	-256
Sagarin	-1.5	-114
Massey	-2.5	-129
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Syracuse Orange -3.5	+100	+105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Syracuse Orange ML	-165	-151	-2.1%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut at Toledo

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Toledo by 35, our data says Toledo by 32

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 35.

The spread

← more Central Connecticut than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 35

Sagarin

Toledo by 24

We say

Toledo by 323.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Central Connecticut +35.0 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 82°F.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 3230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Central Connecticut
FPI	doesn't rate Central Connecticut
Sagarin	-24.0	-1893
Massey	rates Central Connecticut and Toledo on different scales
Market (3 books)	-35.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Central Connecticut Blue Devils +35.0	-110	+117	-6.3%

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at Colorado

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Colorado by 34.5, our data says Colorado by 32

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado by 34.5.

The spread

← more Weber State than the bookmore Colorado →

Market

Colorado by 34.5

Sagarin

Colorado by 26

We say

Colorado by 322.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weber State +34.5 · -110

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Weber State to win · +2500

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 33% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onColorado by 3230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Weber State
FPI	doesn't rate Weber State
Sagarin	-26.0	-2445
Massey	rates Weber State and Colorado on different scales
Market (3 books)	-34.5	-2574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Weber State Wildcats +34.5	-110	+126	-8.2%
Moneyline	Weber State Wildcats ML	+2500	+6535	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan State

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Michigan State by 17TOM, -113

SP+

Michigan State by 19

FPI

Michigan State by 19

Sagarin

Michigan State by 21

Massey

Michigan State by 3.5

We say

Michigan State by 17.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

SP+ pace

50.61.1 pts over the market

Massey

50.20.7 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

We say

49.7on the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-17 -113	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -116	50 -111	-1017	+612

Michigan State -17.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · -900

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan State by 17.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.0	-877
FPI	-19.0	-902
Sagarin	-21.0	-1227
Massey	-3.5	-144
Market (12 books)	-17.0	-641

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -17.0	-113	-127	+2.9%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-900	-728	priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James Madison

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says James Madison by 45.5, our data says James Madison by 43.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 45.5.

The spread

← more Wagner than the bookmore James Madison →

Market

James Madison by 45.5

Sagarin

James Madison by 35

We say

James Madison by 43.52.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	James Madison spread	Total (over)	James Madison ML	Wagner ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Wagner +45.5 · -110

Covers 66 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Wagner to win · +9950

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 43.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Wagner
FPI	doesn't rate Wagner
Sagarin	-35.0	—
Massey	rates Wagner and James Madison on different scales
Market (3 books)	-45.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Wagner Seahawks +45.5	-110	-195	+13.7%
Moneyline	Wagner Seahawks ML	+9950	+55067	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConn

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 12.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 12.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore UConn →

Market

Maryland by 13.5TOM, -115

SP+

Maryland by 13

FPI

Maryland by 8

Sagarin

Maryland by 13.5

Massey

UConn by 1.5

We say

Maryland by 12.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

SP+ pace

49.53 pts under the market

Massey

55.63.1 pts over the market

We say

52.6on the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Maryland ML
TOM	+13.5 -115	52.5 -110	+355	-485
Kalshi	+11.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -112 51¢	+398 19¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -110	52 -117	+348	-478

UConn +13.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +355 at TOM

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UConn).

Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins -11.5, only $203 available; Under 52.5, only $435 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMaryland by 12.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+430
FPI	+8.0	+241
Sagarin	+13.5	+443
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+371

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +13.5	-115	-103	-2.8%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+355	+389	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre Dame

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 55

should be 53.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 44.5TOM, -110

SP+

Notre Dame by 39.5

FPI

Notre Dame by 41.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 47.5

Massey

Notre Dame by 4.5

We say

Notre Dame by 43.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

51.33.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.44.6 pts under the market

We say

50.84.2 pts under the market

Under 55 is a lean. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Rice ML
TOM	-44.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-44.5 -112	54.5 -118	—	—

Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 64 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $249 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 43.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-39.5	—
FPI	-41.5	—
Sagarin	-47.5	—
Massey	-4.5	-163
Market (11 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +44.5	-110	-179	+11.7%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at Massachusetts

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Massachusetts by 24, our data says Massachusetts by 19.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Massachusetts by 24.

The spread

← more Sacred Heart than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Massachusetts by 24

Sagarin

Massachusetts by 10

We say

Massachusetts by 19.54.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Sacred Heart ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1684 94¢	—

Sacred Heart +24.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacred Heart to win · +1102

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $156 available; Under 53.5, only $52 available; Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onMassachusetts by 19.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Sacred Heart
FPI	doesn't rate Sacred Heart
Sagarin	-10.0	-288
Massey	rates Sacred Heart and Massachusetts on different scales
Market (3 books)	-24.0	-1150

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacred Heart Pioneers +24.0	-110	-116	+1.4%
Moneyline	Sacred Heart Pioneers ML	+1102	+980	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No bet

market says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas State →

Market

Texas State by 1.5TOM, -110

SP+

UTSA by 8.5

FPI

UTSA by 2

Sagarin

UTSA by 1.5

Massey

Texas State by 1.5

We say

Texas State by 10.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

66TOM, Over -110

SP+ pace

77.811.8 pts over the market

Massey

64.91.1 pts under the market

We say

71.45.4 pts over the market

Over 66 is a lean. Our total is 5.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	66 -110	-122	+102
Pinnacle	-1.5 -108	66 -108	-118	+101

UTSA +1.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UTSA to win · +102 at TOM

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 66.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.5	+249
FPI	+2.0	+123
Sagarin	+1.5	+119
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-117

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	66.0	71.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UTSA Roadrunners +1.5	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	UTSA Roadrunners ML	+102	+109	-1.6%
Total	Over 66.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at Washington

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

Under 56

should be 54.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 26.5TOM, -110

SP+

Washington by 25.5

FPI

Washington by 22

Sagarin

Washington by 34.5

Massey

Washington by 4

We say

Washington by 25.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Washington by 23.5 to Washington by 26.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM, Under -115

SP+ pace

49.76.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.82.2 pts under the market

We say

51.84.2 pts under the market

Under 56 is a lean. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-26.5 -110	56 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-26.5 -109	55.5 -109	—	+1437

Utah State +26.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Utah State to win · +1500

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 41% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 25.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.5	-2370
FPI	-22.0	-1398
Sagarin	-34.5	—
Massey	-4.0	-153
Market (12 books)	-26.5	-1534

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +26.5	-110	+141	-10.8%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1500	+2381	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-115	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at Troy

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says Troy by 23, our data says Troy by 20

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Troy by 23.

The spread

← more Alabama State than the bookmore Troy →

Market

Troy by 23

Sagarin

Troy by 13.5

We say

Troy by 202.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Alabama State +23.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Alabama State to win · +1050

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onTroy by 2030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Alabama State
FPI	doesn't rate Alabama State
Sagarin	-13.5	-456
Massey	rates Alabama State and Troy on different scales
Market (3 books)	-23.0	-1124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Alabama State Hornets +23.0	-110	+102	-2.8%
Moneyline	Alabama State Hornets ML	+1050	+1062	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

The line is -23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New Mexico

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says New Mexico by 41.5, our data says New Mexico by 39.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 41.5.

The spread

← more Mercyhurst than the bookmore New Mexico →

Market

New Mexico by 41.5

Sagarin

New Mexico by 32

We say

New Mexico by 39.51.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	Mercyhurst ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Mercyhurst +41.5 · -110

Covers 66 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $14 available; Under 53.5, only $54 available; Mercyhurst Lakers ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico by 39.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Mercyhurst
FPI	doesn't rate Mercyhurst
Sagarin	-32.0	—
Massey	rates Mercyhurst and New Mexico on different scales
Market (3 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Mercyhurst Lakers +41.5	-110	-192	+13.4%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at Wyoming

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says Wyoming by 23.5, our data says Wyoming by 21.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wyoming by 23.5.

The spread

← more Northern Colorado than the bookmore Wyoming →

Market

Wyoming by 23.5

Sagarin

Wyoming by 14

We say

Wyoming by 21.52 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Northern Colorado ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Northern Colorado +23.5 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Northern Colorado to win · +1293

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 72°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $159 available; Under 48.5, only $51 available; Wyoming Cowboys ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onWyoming by 21.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Northern Colorado
FPI	doesn't rate Northern Colorado
Sagarin	-14.0	-473
Massey	rates Northern Colorado and Wyoming on different scales
Market (3 books)	-23.5	-1345

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Northern Colorado Bears +23.5	-110	+116	-6.1%
Moneyline	Northern Colorado Bears ML	+1293	+1298	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMU

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says SMU by 24.5, our data says SMU by 25.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 24.5.

The spread

← more UC Davis than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 24.5

Sagarin

SMU by 27.5

We say

SMU by 25.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	UC Davis ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

SMU -24.5 · -110

Covers 61 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

SMU to win · -2400

We make it 96 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $51 available; Under 58.5, only $212 available; UC Davis Aggies ML, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 25.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate UC Davis
FPI	doesn't rate UC Davis
Sagarin	-27.5	-3188
Massey	rates UC Davis and SMU on different scales
Market (1 books)	-24.5	-1248

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	SMU Mustangs -24.5	-110	-154	+8.3%
Moneyline	SMU Mustangs ML	-2400	-2273	priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at Vanderbilt

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm

Over 54

should be 55.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Vanderbilt by 21TOM, -105

SP+

Vanderbilt by 22

FPI

Vanderbilt by 14.5

Sagarin

Vanderbilt by 25

Massey

Vanderbilt by 4

We say

Vanderbilt by 20.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 20.5 to Vanderbilt by 21. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM, Over -115

SP+ pace

62.28.2 pts over the market

Massey

55.91.9 pts over the market

We say

59.15.1 pts over the market

Over 54 is a lean. Our total is 5.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Delaware ML
TOM	-21 -105	54 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-1236 92¢	+944 9¢
Pinnacle	-21 -108	54.5 -114	-1544	+814

Delaware +21.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 45 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Delaware to win · +836

We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F, 30% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $98 available; Under 55.5, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVanderbilt by 20.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.0	-1348
FPI	-14.5	-507
Sagarin	-25.0	-2136
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-21.0	-863

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens +21.0	-115	+125	-9.0%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	+836	+1093	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at Florida

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

No bet

market says Florida by 50, our data says Florida by 48.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 50.

The spread

← more Campbell than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 50

Sagarin

Florida by 45.5

We say

Florida by 48.51.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Campbell ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Campbell +50.0 · -110

Covers 65 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 67.5, only $183 available; Under 67.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 48.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Campbell
FPI	doesn't rate Campbell
Sagarin	-45.5	—
Massey	rates Campbell and Florida on different scales
Market (3 books)	-50.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	67.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Campbell Fighting Camels +50.0	-110	-182	+12.2%

The line is -50.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb at Liberty

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No bet

market says Liberty by 26.5, our data says Liberty by 24.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Liberty by 26.5.

The spread

← more Gardner-Webb than the bookmore Liberty →

Market

Liberty by 26.5

Sagarin

Liberty by 17.5

We say

Liberty by 24.52 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Gardner-Webb ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	+1464 6¢

Gardner-Webb +26.5 · -110

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Gardner-Webb to win · +1567

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onLiberty by 24.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Gardner-Webb
FPI	doesn't rate Gardner-Webb
Sagarin	-17.5	-720
Massey	rates Gardner-Webb and Liberty on different scales
Market (3 books)	-26.5	-1604

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +26.5	-110	+126	-8.1%
Moneyline	Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML	+1567	+2035	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No bet

market says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 2.5TOM, -117

SP+

Jacksonville State by 7

FPI

Ohio by 2.5

Sagarin

Jacksonville State by 1

Massey

Ohio by 2.5

We say

Ohio by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

SP+ pace

46.64.4 pts under the market

Massey

53.42.4 pts over the market

We say

501 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.6 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 51. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	51 -110	-140	+120
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	50.5 -110	-136	+116

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jacksonville State to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ohio).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.0	+216
FPI	-2.5	-127
Sagarin	+1.0	+111
Massey	-2.5	-128
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5	-103	+104	-1.7%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+120	+125	-1.0%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

Under 51.5

should be 49.6 · getting 1.9 pts · was 52.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 28.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Nebraska by 28.5TOM, -115

SP+

Nebraska by 27

FPI

Nebraska by 28.5

Sagarin

Nebraska by 32

Massey

Nebraska by 4

We say

Nebraska by 28.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

44.17.4 pts under the market

Massey

46.25.3 pts under the market

We say

45.16.4 pts under the market

Under 51.5 is a lean. Our total is 6.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-28.5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	51.5 -116 52¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-30 -108	52 -106	—	—

Bowling Green +28.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +2296

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. That's 6.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -28.5, now -29.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Nebraska).

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -29.4 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 28.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-27.0	-2949
FPI	-28.5	-3564
Sagarin	-32.0	—
Massey	-4.0	-151
Market (12 books)	-28.5	-2094

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-105	+144	-10.2%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2296	+3549	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -29.4 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Cincinnati by 36.5, our data says Cincinnati by 33.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 36.5.

The spread

← more Western Carolina than the bookmore Cincinnati →

Market

Cincinnati by 36.5

Sagarin

Cincinnati by 26

We say

Cincinnati by 33.53.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Western Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+3021 3¢

Western Carolina +36.5 · -110

Covers 45 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Western Carolina to win · +3361

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $156 available; Under 60.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onCincinnati by 33.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Western Carolina
FPI	doesn't rate Western Carolina
Sagarin	-26.0	-2565
Massey	rates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales
Market (5 books)	-36.5	-3570

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Carolina Catamounts +36.5	-110	+122	-7.2%
Moneyline	Western Carolina Catamounts ML	+3361	+8686	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Southern Utah than the bookmore Colorado State →

Market

Colorado State by 20.5

Sagarin

Colorado State by 9

We say

Colorado State by 182.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Southern Utah +20.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Southern Utah to win · +920

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 79°F, 27% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onColorado State by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Southern Utah
FPI	doesn't rate Southern Utah
Sagarin	-9.0	-258
Massey	rates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales
Market (3 books)	-20.5	-966

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Southern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5	-110	+103	-3.2%
Moneyline	Southern Utah Thunderbirds ML	+920	+807	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Kennesaw State by 9, our data says Kennesaw State by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →

Market

Kennesaw State by 9TOM, -110

SP+

Kennesaw State by 17.5

FPI

Kennesaw State by 9.5

Sagarin

Kennesaw State by 8.5

Massey

Kennesaw State by 2

We say

Kennesaw State by 90 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 9. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

SP+ pace

58.33.8 pts over the market

Massey

55.40.9 pts over the market

Weather

-1.071% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

55.81.3 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.2 points since it opened, from 50.2 to 54.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-9 -110	54.5 -115	-335	+260
Pinnacle	-9 -112	54 -116	-366	+281

Georgia State +9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Georgia State to win · +260 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKennesaw State by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-738
FPI	-9.5	-274
Sagarin	-8.5	-245
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-321

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	55.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.0	-110	-110	-0.0%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+260	+262	-0.2%
Total	Over 54.5	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Tennessee by 12.5, our data says Tennessee by 11.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Tennessee by 12.5TOM, -110

SP+

Tennessee by 16

FPI

Tennessee by 9.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 8.5

Massey

Georgia Tech by 1.5

We say

Tennessee by 11.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 13 to Tennessee by 12.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

SP+ pace

58.73.7 pts over the market

Massey

57.12.1 pts over the market

Weather

-1.073% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

56.91.9 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+12.5 -110	55 -115	+350	-480
Kalshi	+11.5 +101 48¢	—	+398 19¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -103	55 -115	+383	-538

Georgia Tech +12.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · +350 at TOM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $102 available; Under 55.5, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+16.0	+608
FPI	+9.5	+283
Sagarin	+8.5	+244
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (12 books)	+12.5	+366

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	56.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+350	+349	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 55.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern Illinois

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Illinois State by 3.5, our data says Illinois State by 3.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 3.5, we say Illinois State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois State than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Illinois State by 3.5

Sagarin

Illinois State by 4

We say

Illinois State by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois State -3.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Illinois State to win · -180

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 35% chance of rain.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois State by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Illinois State
FPI	doesn't rate Illinois State
Sagarin	+4.0	+155
Massey	rates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales
Market (3 books)	+3.5	+156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Illinois State Redbirds -3.5	-110	+108	-4.4%
Moneyline	Illinois State Redbirds ML	-180	-147	-4.8%

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says Missouri State by 20.5, our data says Missouri State by 17.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Lindenwood than the bookmore Missouri State →

Market

Missouri State by 20.5

Sagarin

Missouri State by 10.5

We say

Missouri State by 17.52.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lindenwood +20.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Lindenwood to win · +981

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F, 35% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri State by 17.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Lindenwood
FPI	doesn't rate Lindenwood
Sagarin	-10.5	-320
Massey	rates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales
Market (2 books)	-20.5	-1036

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Lindenwood Lions +20.5	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	Lindenwood Lions ML	+981	+744	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No bet

market says South Carolina by 43, our data says South Carolina by 42.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 43.

The spread

← more Towson than the bookmore South Carolina →

Market

South Carolina by 43

Sagarin

South Carolina by 42

We say

South Carolina by 42.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Towson ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Towson +43.0 · -110

Covers 63 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $343 available; Under 55.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Carolina by 42.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Towson
FPI	doesn't rate Towson
Sagarin	-42.0	—
Massey	rates Towson and South Carolina on different scales
Market (3 books)	-43.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Towson Tigers +43.0	-110	-168	+10.3%

The line is -43.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at Wisconsin

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm

No bet

market says Wisconsin by 37, our data says Wisconsin by 40

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 37.

The spread

← more Western Illinois than the bookmore Wisconsin →

Market

Wisconsin by 37

Sagarin

Wisconsin by 47.5

We say

Wisconsin by 403.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Western Illinois ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Wisconsin -37.0 · -110

Covers 68 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Wisconsin to win · -10850

We make it 100 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $104 available; Under 49.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onWisconsin by 4030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Western Illinois
FPI	doesn't rate Western Illinois
Sagarin	-47.5	—
Massey	rates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales
Market (3 books)	-37.0	-4066

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Wisconsin Badgers -37.0	-110	-216	+16.0%
Moneyline	Wisconsin Badgers ML	-10850	-29978	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 56.5

should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Clemson →

Market

Clemson by 20.5TOM, -110

SP+

Clemson by 13

FPI

Clemson by 16.5

Sagarin

Clemson by 25.5

Massey

Clemson by 3

We say

Clemson by 19.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 20.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM, Under -112

SP+ pace

51.55 pts under the market

Massey

54.42.1 pts under the market

Weather

-1.070% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

524.5 pts under the market

Under 56.5 is a lean. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	56.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	—
Pinnacle	-20.5 -110	55.5 -115	-1494	+796

Georgia Southern +20.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Georgia Southern to win · +862

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.5 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $350 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onClemson by 19.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.0	-430
FPI	-16.5	-652
Sagarin	-25.5	-2367
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (12 books)	-20.5	-864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	52.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5	-110	+118	-6.5%
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+862	+940	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-112	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

No bet

market says Coastal Carolina by 32, our data says Coastal Carolina by 28.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 32.

The spread

← more Fordham than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →

Market

Coastal Carolina by 32

Sagarin

Coastal Carolina by 19

We say

Coastal Carolina by 28.53.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Fordham ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢

Fordham +32.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Fordham to win · +2400

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onCoastal Carolina by 28.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Fordham
FPI	doesn't rate Fordham
Sagarin	-19.0	-928
Massey	rates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales
Market (3 books)	-32.0	-2338

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Fordham Rams +32.0	-110	+108	-4.3%
Moneyline	Fordham Rams ML	+2400	+3563	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -32.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 53.5 · getting 2 pts

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 36.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 36TOM, -110

SP+

LSU by 29.5

FPI

LSU by 32.5

Sagarin

LSU by 34

Massey

LSU by 3.5

We say

LSU by 34.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 35 to LSU by 36. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Under -110

SP+ pace

47.28.3 pts under the market

Massey

52.23.3 pts under the market

Weather

-1.074% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

48.76.8 pts under the market

Under 55.5 is a lean. Our total is 6.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Louisiana Tech ML
TOM	-36 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -103 49¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-35 -116	56 -112	—	—

Louisiana Tech +36.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +4900

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward LSU).

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 34.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-29.5	-4206
FPI	-32.5	—
Sagarin	-34.0	—
Massey	-3.5	-148
Market (12 books)	-36.0	-4536

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +36.0	-110	+135	-9.7%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+4900	+10163	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

No bet

market says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 1.5TOM, -117

SP+

Ohio State by 2.5

FPI

Texas by 2.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 1

Massey

Texas by 2

We say

Texas by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

SP+ pace

51.72.7 pts over the market

Massey

49.90.9 pts over the market

We say

50.81.8 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Ohio State ML
TOM	-1.5 -117	49 -110	-127	+107
Pinnacle	-1.5 -111	49.5 -110	-124	+106

Ohio State +1.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ohio State to win · +107 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Across the books: opened -0.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Texas).

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+129
FPI	-2.5	-130
Sagarin	+1.0	+109
Massey	-2.0	-120
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5	-103	+103	-1.4%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	+107	+113	-1.4%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm

Under 53.5

should be 52.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Texas Tech by 26.5TOM, -110

SP+

Texas Tech by 23.5

FPI

Texas Tech by 23.5

Sagarin

Texas Tech by 27.5

Massey

Oregon State by 1

We say

Texas Tech by 260.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Under -103

SP+ pace

47.75.8 pts under the market

Massey

51.12.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.063% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

48.45.1 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a lean. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	Texas Tech ML
TOM	+26.5 -110	53.5 -117	—	—
Pinnacle	+27 -111	53.5 -113	+1330	—

Oregon State +26.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oregon State to win · +1500

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +27.5, now +27.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 2621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.5	+1701
FPI	+23.5	+1669
Sagarin	+27.5	+3118
Massey	-1.0	-109
Market (12 books)	+26.5	+1452

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers +26.5	-110	+143	-11.2%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	+1500	+2428	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-103	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

Under 57

should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

Auburn by 33TOM, -110

SP+

Auburn by 24

FPI

Auburn by 16

Sagarin

Auburn by 33.5

Massey

Auburn by 4

We say

Auburn by 293.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Under -108

SP+ pace

47.89.2 pts under the market

Massey

47.59.5 pts under the market

Weather

-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off

We say

46.710.3 pts under the market

Under 57 is a lean. Our total is 10.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 4.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.6 points away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-33 -110	57 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	—	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-33.5 -109	57.5 +101	—	—

Southern Miss +33.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Southern Miss to win · +2500

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -29.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $307 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAuburn by 2930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1859
FPI	-16.0	-609
Sagarin	-33.5	—
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-33.0	-2827

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+2500	+4081	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-108	-138	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 4.6.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm

No bet

market says Ole Miss by 47.5, our data says Ole Miss by 45.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore Ole Miss →

Market

Ole Miss by 47.5TOM, -110

SP+

Ole Miss by 41.5

FPI

Ole Miss by 35

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 49

Massey

Ole Miss by 5

We say

Ole Miss by 45.52 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

61TOM

SP+ pace

60.30.7 pts under the market

Massey

60.9on the market

We say

60.60.4 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 61. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-47.5 -110	61 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	60.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-47.5 -101	60.5 -114	—	—

Charlotte +47.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 65 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +9950

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 61.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 45.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-41.5	—
FPI	-35.0	—
Sagarin	-49.0	—
Massey	-5.0	-175
Market (10 books)	-47.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.0	60.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +47.5	-110	-189	+13.0%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+9950	+88130	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 61.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm

No bet

market says Baylor by 38, our data says Baylor by 36.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 38.

The spread

← more Prairie View A&M than the bookmore Baylor →

Market

Baylor by 38

Sagarin

Baylor by 33.5

We say

Baylor by 36.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Prairie View A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Prairie View A&M +38.0 · -110

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Prairie View A&M to win · +5183

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $102 available; Under 55.5, only $216 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBaylor by 36.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Prairie View A&M
FPI	doesn't rate Prairie View A&M
Sagarin	-33.5	—
Massey	rates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales
Market (3 books)	-38.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Prairie View A&M Panthers +38.0	-110	+144	-11.4%
Moneyline	Prairie View A&M Panthers ML	+5183	+15341	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -38.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP

CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm

No bet

market says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 23

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.

The spread

← more Texas Southern than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

UTEP by 27

Sagarin

UTEP by 14

We say

UTEP by 233.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Texas Southern ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Texas Southern +27.0 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Texas Southern to win · +1716

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 94°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $104 available; Under 53.5, only $159 available; UTEP Miners ML, only $475 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onUTEP by 2330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Texas Southern
FPI	doesn't rate Texas Southern
Sagarin	-14.0	-480
Massey	rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales
Market (3 books)	-27.0	-1774

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas Southern Tigers +27.0	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Texas Southern Tigers ML	+1716	+1638	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

No bet

market says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Fresno State by 18TOM, -110

SP+

Fresno State by 13.5

FPI

Fresno State by 13.5

Sagarin

Fresno State by 13

Massey

Fresno State by 3

We say

Fresno State by 16.51.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 18. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

SP+ pace

44.30.7 pts under the market

Massey

49.74.7 pts over the market

We say

472 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-18 -110	45 -107	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -103	45 -113	-1065	+633

Sacramento State +18.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +668

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 16.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-457
FPI	-13.5	-451
Sagarin	-13.0	-416
Massey	-3.0	-139
Market (12 books)	-18.0	-687

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.0	-110	+102	-2.8%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+668	+655	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-107	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm

No bet

market says Montana State by 4, our data says Montana State by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4, we say Montana State by 5.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Montana State than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Montana State by 4

Sagarin

Montana State by 8

We say

Montana State by 5.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Montana State -4.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Montana State to win · -198

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

Full detail

We settle onMontana State by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Montana State
FPI	doesn't rate Montana State
Sagarin	+8.0	+233
Massey	rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales
Market (5 books)	+4.0	+172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Montana State Bobcats -4.0	-110	-105	-1.1%
Moneyline	Montana State Bobcats ML	-198	-176	-2.6%

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm

No bet

market says USC by 30.5, our data says USC by 29

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 30.5.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore USC →

Market

USC by 30.5TOM, -114

SP+

USC by 25.5

FPI

USC by 26.5

Sagarin

USC by 29.5

Massey

USC by 4

We say

USC by 291.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 30.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM

SP+ pace

65.15.6 pts over the market

Massey

57.12.4 pts under the market

We say

61.11.6 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 59.5. We have no lean on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-30.5 -114	59.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	59.5	—	+3021 3¢
Pinnacle	-31 -107	60 -103	—	—

Louisiana +30.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +3000

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 2930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.5	-2334
FPI	-26.5	-2649
Sagarin	-29.5	-4325
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-30.5	-2770

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	61.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5	-106	+140	-9.8%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+3000	+4105	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.5	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West Virginia

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more UT Martin than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

West Virginia by 39.5

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate UT Martin
FPI	doesn't rate UT Martin
Sagarin	doesn't rate UT Martin
Massey	rates UT Martin and West Virginia on different scales
Market (2 books)	-39.5	-4570

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Monmouth than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Western Michigan by 26.5

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Monmouth ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.

Kalshi thin: Monmouth Hawks ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Monmouth
FPI	doesn't rate Monmouth
Sagarin	doesn't rate Monmouth
Massey	rates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales
Market (3 books)	-26.5	-1394

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Southern than the bookmore Houston →

Market

Houston by 51

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	Southern ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 43% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $202 available; Under 60.5, only $253 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Southern
FPI	doesn't rate Southern
Sagarin	doesn't rate Southern
Massey	rates Southern and Houston on different scales
Market (5 books)	-51.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCU

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Grambling than the bookmore TCU →

Market

TCU by 43.5

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Grambling
FPI	doesn't rate Grambling
Sagarin	doesn't rate Grambling
Massey	rates Grambling and TCU on different scales
Market (3 books)	-43.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José State

CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Cal Poly than the bookmore San José State →

Market

San José State by 20.5

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Cal Poly
FPI	doesn't rate Cal Poly
Sagarin	doesn't rate Cal Poly
Massey	rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales
Market (2 books)	-20.5	-1100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii Rainbow

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-256

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-06 12:32; total has moved down 1.3.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5.

GameThe call

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Colts +3.5

should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 pts

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Ravens by 3.5

nfelo

Ravens by 0.52.8 pts our side

FPI

Ravens by 21.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Ravens by 30.3 pts our side

Massey

Colts by 25.3 pts our side

We say

Ravens by 30.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Colts. Our blended number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes a 3.0% edge after the price for a pick, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

Massey

49.72 pts over the market

We say

49.72 pts over the market

Over 47.5 is a lean. Our total is 2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -121 53¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -113	47.5 -116	+157	-180

Colts +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +152

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens).

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+109
FPI	+2.0	+124
Sagarin	+3.0	+148
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+152	+144	+1.2%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8

A Little Nasty · BrownsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 9

nfelo

Jaguars by 5.53.8 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 8.50.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Jaguars by 9.50.5 pts against us

Massey

Jaguars by 2.56.7 pts our side

We say

Jaguars by 80.9 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Browns. Sagarin at Jaguars by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5

Massey

421.5 pts over the market

We say

421.5 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Browns ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 +101	40.5 -111	-395	+319

Browns +9.0 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Browns to win · +320

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-192
FPI	-8.5	-287
Sagarin	-9.5	-334
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-339

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-110	-128	+3.7%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+320	+278	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Under 47

should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Cardinals too: market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 10

nfelo

Chargers by 45.9 pts our side

FPI

Chargers by 10.50.3 pts against us

Sagarin

Chargers by 143.9 pts against us

Massey

Chargers by 27.8 pts our side

We say

Chargers by 90.8 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Cardinals. FPI at Chargers by 10.5 and Sagarin at Chargers by 14 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward our number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

44.13 pts under the market

We say

44.13 pts under the market

Under 47 is a lean. Our total is 3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-490 82¢	+398 19¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 +118	47 -111	-475	+373

Cardinals +10.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +393

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-165
FPI	-10.5	-368
Sagarin	-14.0	-618
Massey	-2.0	-131
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-398

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +10.0	-110	-124	+2.9%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+393	+316	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants

NFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pm

Over 48

should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Cowboys by 2.5

nfelo

Giants by 1

FPI

Cowboys by 1.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 2

Massey

Giants by 2

We say

Cowboys by 20.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

50.22.4 pts over the market

We say

50.22.4 pts over the market

Over 48 is a lean. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	+2.5	47.5 -121 53¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +110	47.5 -116	+140	-159

Giants +2.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · +138

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants +2.5, only $379 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Matt Hennessy (C, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-113
FPI	+1.5	+118
Sagarin	+2.0	+131
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+138	+130	+1.4%
Spread	New York Giants +2.5	-110	+105	-3.6%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Over 39

should be 41.2 · getting 2 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Titans by 1

nfelo

Titans by 31.9 pts our side

FPI

Titans by 2.51.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Titans by 4.53.4 pts our side

Massey

Titans by 21.1 pts our side

We say

Titans by 1.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. Our blended number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes a 3.0% edge after the price for a pick, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

45.76.5 pts over the market

We say

45.76.5 pts over the market

Over 39 is a lean. Our total is 6.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Jets ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	39.5 -107 50¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-1 -107	39 -111	-117	+104

Titans -1.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · -123

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.0 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 6.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 39.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onTitans by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-2.5	-139
Sagarin	-4.5	-171
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans -1.0	-110	-114	+1.0%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-123	-121	-0.4%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-131	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Under 47

should be 46.3 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Bears by 2.5

nfelo

Bears by 1

FPI

Bears by 2

Sagarin

Bears by 2

Massey

Panthers by 2

We say

Bears by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

44.23.1 pts under the market

We say

44.23.1 pts under the market

Under 47 is a lean. Our total is 3.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Bears ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -131 55¢	46.5 -121 53¢	+134 41¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +114	47.5 +103	+145	-165

Panthers +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +140

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Dallis Flowers (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
FPI	+2.0	+127
Sagarin	+2.0	+129
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+151

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+140	+133	+1.3%
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	-110	+107	-4.1%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Under 49.5

should be 48.8 · getting 0.8 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Lions →

Market

Lions by 7

nfelo

Lions by 60.8 pts our side

FPI

Lions by 7.50.5 pts against us

Sagarin

Lions by 7.50.7 pts against us

Massey

Lions by 2.54.6 pts our side

We say

Lions by 70 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Saints. FPI at Lions by 7.5 and Sagarin at Lions by 7.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

Massey

45.93.8 pts under the market

We say

45.93.8 pts under the market

Under 49.5 is a lean. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Saints ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7 -105	49.5 -111	-321	+267

Saints +7.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +260

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 3.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Michael Niese (G, Lions), Dillon Radunz (G, Saints), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-214
FPI	-7.5	-252
Sagarin	-7.5	-260
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-276

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+260	+236	+2.0%
Spread	New Orleans Saints +7.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Over 45

should be 45.8 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 45.0. Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Bills by 1

nfelo

Texans by 0.5

FPI

Bills by 0.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Texans by 2

We say

Bills by 0.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

47.93 pts over the market

We say

47.93 pts over the market

Over 45 is a lean. Our total is 3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bills ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -121 53¢	-103 49¢	-116 52¢
Pinnacle	+1 -106	45 -106	+101	-114

Texans +1.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Texans to win · +100

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 48. That's 3.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 45.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-107
FPI	+0.5	+105
Sagarin	pk	+100
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans +1.0	-110	+102	-2.8%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	+100	+108	-1.9%
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Under 46

should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 1

nfelo

Vikings by 4.5

FPI

Packers by 1

Sagarin

Packers by 0.5

Massey

Vikings by 2

We say

Vikings by 10.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

42.63.6 pts under the market

We say

42.63.6 pts under the market

Under 46 is a lean. Our total is 3.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Packers ML
Kalshi	-1.5	45.5	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-1 -113	46 -111	-123	+109

Packers +1.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · +102

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 43. That's 3.6 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $85 available; Over 45.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
FPI	+1.0	+114
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers +1.0	-110	+107	-4.2%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	+102	+114	-2.6%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 39 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Bengals →

Market

Bengals by 4

nfelo

Bengals by 2.51.3 pts our side

FPI

Bengals by 4on the market

Sagarin

Bengals by 40.3 pts against us

Massey

Bengals by 22 pts our side

We say

Bengals by 40.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Sagarin at Bengals by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

49.30.9 pts under the market

We say

49.30.9 pts under the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Buccaneers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -121 53¢	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-4 -103	50 -111	-202	+175

Buccaneers +4.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +175

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · +175. A price bet, Buccaneers loses more often than not.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.0	-159
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-184

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+175	+158	+2.3%
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-110	-115	+1.2%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

Dolphins +3.5

should be Dolphins +3.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Raiders by 3.5

nfelo

Raiders by 1.51.9 pts our side

FPI

Raiders by 3.5on the market

Sagarin

Raiders by 5.52.2 pts against us

Massey

Raiders by 21.6 pts our side

We say

Raiders by 3.50.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Dolphins. Sagarin at Raiders by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5

Massey

42.11.5 pts over the market

We say

42.11.5 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	40.5	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -104	40.5 -114	-188	+164

Dolphins +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Dolphins to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Dolphins +3.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-121
FPI	-3.5	-153
Sagarin	-5.5	-202
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +3.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+155	+150	+0.8%
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers

NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm

Falcons +3.5

should be Falcons +3.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Steelers by 3.5

nfelo

Steelers by 30.6 pts our side

FPI

Steelers by 3.5on the market

Sagarin

Steelers by 40.6 pts against us

Massey

Steelers by 21.3 pts our side

We say

Steelers by 3.50.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Falcons. Sagarin at Steelers by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

43.91.7 pts over the market

We say

43.91.7 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	42.5 -105	-181	+159

Falcons +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Falcons +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +3.5, only $364 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out, already in the ratings: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.

Also out: Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Storm Norton (OT, Falcons) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-3.5	-149
Sagarin	-4.0	-164
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +3.5	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+155	+152	+0.5%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles

NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm

No bet

market says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Eagles →

Market

Eagles by 4.5

nfelo

Eagles by 4

FPI

Eagles by 5.5

Sagarin

Eagles by 6.5

Massey

Eagles by 2.5

We say

Eagles by 4.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

Massey

45.51.1 pts over the market

We say

45.51.1 pts over the market

No lean on the total. Our number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Commanders ML
Kalshi	-5.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	—
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	44.5 -103	-224	+193

Eagles -4.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · -225

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Commanders).

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $288 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-162
FPI	-5.5	-196
Sagarin	-6.5	-218
Massey	-2.5	-135
Market (12 books)	-4.5	-201

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -4.5	-110	+109	-4.5%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-225	-177	-5.4%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Washington Commanders since 09-06 15:31.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs

NFL mon 14 sep, 7:15 pm

Under 44

should be 42.7 · getting 1.1 pts · was 43

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 44.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 3

nfelo

Chiefs by 1

FPI

Chiefs by 3

Sagarin

Chiefs by 3

Massey

Chiefs by 2

We say

Chiefs by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

Massey

403.8 pts under the market

We say

403.8 pts under the market

Under 44 is a lean. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from our number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	-2.5	43.5 -107 50¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-3 +107	44 -105	-145	+128

Broncos +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +125

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 44.0 · -110

Massey projects 40. That's 3.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 49% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Kansas City Chiefs -2.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Drew Sanders (LB, Broncos) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	-3.0	-146
Sagarin	-3.0	-141
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +3.0	-110	-106	-0.8%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+125	+138	-2.4%
Total	Under 44.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The Receipts7 bets · 3-4 · -1.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How Buck worksand how the model is doing

The Receipts

Every call the board made, graded on what it said at kickoff. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Sunday September 6

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostOle Miss Rebels -7.0Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels38-41-1.00

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Scoreboard

Loading scores...

How it's going

3-4Record

-1.2Units

-17.3%ROI

10Open

It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.03Sides: pts vs close, 17 bets, beat it 41%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

We read 101 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 17 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.

Since 10:19 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 4.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
→ 3.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
→ 1.5UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Pantherstoward UCF Knightsagainst the public
→ 1.0Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebelstoward Ole Miss Rebelswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 4 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 110936 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.74 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	38	2.97
BetOnline.ag	75	0.95
LowVig.ag	72	0.92
BetMGM	69	0.86
DraftKings	87	0.81
MyBookie.ag	67	0.73
BetUS	69	0.69
Bovada	71	0.68
FanDuel	142	0.66
TOM	68	0.60
Pinnacle	70	0.58
Caesars	81	0.55
BetRivers	135	0.54
Fanatics	137	0.42

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
FPI NFL updated yesterday
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated today
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
nfelo updated yesterday

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Tue Sep 8

1. Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.0  -110
   [College] Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates, sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
   we make it -125, edge +3%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.