Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Marshall at James MadisonMoved our way · 2 ptsJames Madison -15.5 -110 at TOMNasty Pick · called Sat 9:39amStill a playSat 2:45pm Buck's case ›Bet it. James Madison -15.5 -110 at TOM, the number we posted on Saturday, is still on the board: DraftKings or TOM at -110.Temple at South FloridaMoved our way · 3 ptsSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars, the number we posted on Monday, is still on the board: FanDuel or Fanatics at -110.Arkansas State at LouisianaLouisiana -6 -104 at TOMNasty Pick · called Fri 2:02pmStill a playSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Louisiana -6 · -110 at DraftKings, 6 cents worse than the -6 -104 we posted on Friday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Texas State at San Diego StateMoved our way · 5.5 ptsSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Mon 10:33pmChanged sinceSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Don't add this. The market has moved 5.7 points away from San Diego State since Monday. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. We wouldn't make this call today. It stays on the record at +4.5 -106 and grades there.Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Cincinnati +7.5 · -121 (53¢) at Kalshi, half a point better, 19 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Five Nasty Picks and One Nasty Dog on the counter this week: San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel, James Madison -15.5 -110 at TOM, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings, Louisiana -6 -104 at TOM, South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars and Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel. Read the receipt before you bet it.
UL Monroe at South Alabama, South Alabama -13. Every system has South Alabama by 17.5; the market has South Alabama by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -12.
Cardinals at Giants, Giants +2.5. Every system has Giants by 2; the market has Cardinals by 2.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 56.5 (Louisville at NC State) at 6.5% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 56.5, down 4 since the open.
Since the last build, Ohio State at Iowa slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Texas State at San Diego State, San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Colts at CommandersCommanders to win +184 at FanDuelNasty Dog · called Fri 9:06amChanged sinceSun 8:30am Buck's case ›Don't add this. We posted Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel on Friday; now Commanders to win · +180 at FanDuel, and the case has moved against it since. It stays on the record at +184 and grades there.Damn Near Nasty
4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Jaguars): Fanatics +3 at -115 (3.2%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (1.7%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.9%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at -8 for -108 at BetMGM · 1.5 points away
Where, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -9.5 at -108 (2.1%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings -10 at -105 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM -9.5 at -115 (0.5%) · Caesars -9.5 at -117 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (South Alabama): BetMGM -13.5 at -108 (2.3%) · TOM -13 at -112 (2.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -13.5 at -110 (1.8%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (0.7%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -112 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -108. A wash; either is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Giants): TOM or Kalshi +2.5 at -107 (1.6%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (1.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 56.5. The total has come down 4 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (7.0%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 48¢ (6.6%) · Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (6.4%) · Caesars 56.5 at -114 (5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (0.7%) · Caesars, TOM or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 47 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (0.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 46.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.6%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Baylor): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (5.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (4.2%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.6%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (4.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (3.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (3.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (3.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (2.7%).Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 51¢. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State): Caesars +1.5 at -103 (1.8%) · BetMGM +2 at -108 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.6%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (1.4%) · Fanatics +2 at -110 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +2 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1.5 (the games that land on 2); -108 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -103. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -144 (1.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -148 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 62.5 at -110 (1.6%) · TOM 62 at -105 (1.6%) · FanDuel 62.5 at -114 (0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 62.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 63.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 62.5 (the games that land on 63); 55¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -110 (1.4%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (1.0%) · Caesars or Kalshi 50.5 at -107 (0.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.1 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (1.4%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.7%) · TOM 48 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Moved closer since the 1:06pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:06pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UL Monroe at South Alabama 6:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - Ohio State at Iowa 2:40pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -109.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
30 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego StateCFB 9:30pmSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelMoved our way · 5.5 ptsDon't add · now San Diego State +10 · -112 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +4.5 -106Don't addBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Don't add this. The market has moved 5.7 points away from San Diego State since Monday. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. We wouldn't make this call today. It stays on the record at +4.5 -106 and grades there. Market says Texas State by 10, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 5.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 5.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 5.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -112 | 58 -105 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +296 24¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 +101 | 57.5 -107 | +302 | -372 |
All 22 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -112 | 58 -105 | +275 | -365 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +296 24¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -115 | 57.5 -107 | +310 | -435 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +320 | -400 |
| BetMGM | +10 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -112 | 58 -105 | +292 | -365 |
| betPARX | +10 -115 | 57.5 -107 | +310 | -435 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -107 | 57.5 -108 | +310 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +317 | -395 |
| Bovada | +10 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +295 | -390 |
| Caesars | +9.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +295 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +295 | -395 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -105 | +300 | -425 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -108 | 58 -103 | +292 | -365 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 +101 | 57.5 -107 | +302 | -372 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 6.2 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.7 consensus.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +348 consensus.
FanDuel still has San Diego State +10.5 while Pinnacle is at Texas State by 9.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (19 books) | +10.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 59.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +10.0 | -112 | -133 | +4.3% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +296 | +254 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 6.2 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.7 consensus; total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +348 consensus.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB 2:45pmJames Madison -15.5 -110 at TOMMoved our way · 2 ptsBet it · now James Madison -15.5 · -110 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at -15.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Saturday at James Madison -15.5 -110 at TOM. Bet it. James Madison -15.5 -110 at TOM, the number we posted on Saturday, is still on the board: DraftKings or TOM at -110. Market says James Madison by 15.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in James Madison's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -719 87¢ | +573 14¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -107 | 55.5 -107 | -806 | +572 |
All 21 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -719 87¢ | +573 14¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -113 | 55.5 -114 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -850 | +575 |
| BetMGM | -15.5 -112 | 55.5 -105 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -800 | +561 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -113 | 55.5 -114 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -114 | 55.5 -114 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -15 -110 | 55 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -800 | +525 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 55.5 -103 | -715 | +545 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -750 | +525 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in | 14¢ +525 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| FanDuel | -16.5 -106 | 55.5 -112 | -720 | +500 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -835 | +535 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1000 | +600 |
| LowVig.ag | -15.5 -106 | 55.5 -108 | -800 | +561 |
| MyBookie.ag | -16 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -776 | +522 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -107 | 55.5 -107 | -806 | +572 |
| theScore Bet | -16.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F, 45% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -18.0, now -15.0. The market has moved 2.9 away from James Madison, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at -15.0. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd +14.5, only $346 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1708 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -755 |
| Market (18 books) | -15.5 | -721 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -15.5 | -110 | -123 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -700 | -708 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.1 consensus.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB 10:00pmCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsBet it · now Cincinnati +7.5 · -121 (53¢) at KalshiNasty Pick · called at +7 -102Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Bet it. Cincinnati +7.5 · -121 (53¢) at Kalshi, half a point better, 19 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -105 | 56.5 +100 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 55.5 -113 | -260 | +221 |
All 22 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -105 | 56.5 +100 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -239 69¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -106 | 55.5 -110 | -265 | +210 |
| BetAnything | -7 -105 | 56 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -105 | 56 -110 | -245 | +203 |
| betPARX | -7 -106 | 55.5 -110 | -265 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -7 -107 | 55.5 -112 | -265 | +205 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 56 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 56 -105 | -270 | +220 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 55.5 -108 | -250 | +205 |
| Courtside | -7 -103 | 55.5 -110 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 56 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 55.5 -114 | -255 | +205 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 55.5 -120 | -265 | +205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -101 | 56 -108 | -245 | +203 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 55.5 -113 | -260 | +221 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 56.5 -105 | -270 | +220 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.6 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +8.0 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -164 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5 | -121 | -136 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +210 | +202 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -120 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at LouisianaCFB 7:00pmLouisiana -6 -104 at TOMBet it · now Louisiana -6 · -110 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at -6 -104Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Friday at Louisiana -6 -104 at TOM. Bet it. Louisiana -6 · -110 at DraftKings, 6 cents worse than the -6 -104 we posted on Friday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Louisiana by 6, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Louisiana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 49.5 -106 | -222 | +192 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6 -105 | 49 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 50 -108 | -220 | +186 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 49 -110 | -220 | +185 |
| Bovada | -6 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -220 | +189 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -235 | +190 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | -235 | +185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -230 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -106 | 50 -106 | -220 | +186 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 49 -110 | -246 | +195 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 49.5 -106 | -222 | +192 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Louisiana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves ML, only $373 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -308 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -229 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.0 | -211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -220 | -232 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB 6:30pmSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsMoved our way · 3 ptsBet it · now South Florida -5.5 · -111 at TOMNasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Bet it. South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars, the number we posted on Monday, is still on the board: FanDuel or Fanatics at -110. Market says South Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 6.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -111 | 48 -117 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -107 | 48 -118 | -210 | +182 |
All 22 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -111 | 48 -117 | -220 | +180 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -107 | 48.5 -109 | -225 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -111 | 48.5 -110 | -220 | +186 |
| betPARX | -6 -107 | 48.5 -109 | -225 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -107 | -230 | +190 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -230 | +190 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -210 | +172 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -230 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -107 | 48.5 -108 | -220 | +186 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -246 | +194 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -107 | 48 -118 | -210 | +182 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for the South Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Kalshi has the total at 50.5 while Pinnacle is at 48. Far enough off to be a pick, but no price at the book.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -411 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -395 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -208 | -211 | +0.3% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -5.5 | -111 | -109 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -117 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB 3:15pmIllinois -9.5should be Illinois -10.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Illinois -9.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.1% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 62 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 61.5 -104 | -377 | +307 |
All 22 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 62 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -110 | 62.5 -106 | -400 | +295 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 62 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -108 | 61.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 62 -105 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -9 -110 | 62.5 -106 | -400 | +295 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 62.5 -107 | -400 | +295 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 61 -115 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -117 | 62 -109 | -390 | +305 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -119 | 61.5 -113 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -105 | 61.5 -115 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 63.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 61.5 -120 | -395 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 62.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 62 -103 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 61.5 -104 | -377 | +307 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Illinois -9.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 72°F.
A play at -8.0 or better.
TOM: total 62.0 here against 61.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -657 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -423 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 66.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -9.5 | -108 | -118 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -365 | -371 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 62.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 62.0 here against 61.7 consensus.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB 6:00pmSouth Alabama -13Moved our way · 1 ptshould be South Alabama -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -14Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. South Alabama -13.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.1% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in South Alabama's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 57 -102 | -576 | +437 |
All 20 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -106 | 55.5 -112 | -835 | +525 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -112 | 56.5 -112 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -14 -106 | 55.5 -112 | -835 | +525 |
| BetRivers | -14 -107 | 55.5 -113 | -835 | +525 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -575 | +425 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -580 | +420 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | -655 | +445 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -850 | +525 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -549 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -111 | 57 -102 | -576 | +437 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama -13.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 91% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -13.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at -12.0. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -570 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -798 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -613 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -13.0 | -112 | -122 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -575 | -531 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -112 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB 9:30pmBaylor +3.5should be Baylor +2 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsA Little Nasty · BaylorBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Baylor. Market says Arizona State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -126 54¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 48.5 -110 | -164 | +144 |
All 22 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -126 54¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -112 | -182 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -173 | +145 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -162 | +134 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 48.5 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -190 | +153 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 48.5 -110 | -164 | +144 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Baylor, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -182 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -148 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears +3.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +140 | +118 | +4.1% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB 2:40pmUnder 47Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 45.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 44.5▼A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Iowa too: market says Ohio State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13.5, but at -109 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14.5 -109 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 +100 | 46 -115 | +513 | -703 |
All 22 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14.5 -109 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 46.5 -108 | +500 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| BetMGM | +14.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14.5 -109 | 47 -110 | +476 | -650 |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 46.5 -108 | +500 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 46 -114 | +480 | -770 |
| BetUS | +14.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +14.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | +475 | -700 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -109 | 46.5 -108 | +500 | -750 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +519 | -669 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | +500 | -700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +550 | -820 |
| Fliff | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | +475 | -870 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +14.5 -102 | 47 -108 | +476 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -118 | 46.5 -111 | +425 | -667 |
| Pinnacle | +14.5 +100 | 46 -115 | +513 | -703 |
| theScore Bet | +15.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +402 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +309 |
| Market (19 books) | +14.5 | +632 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5 | -109 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +550 | +459 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.2 consensus.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington StateCFB 8:30pmFresno State +1.5should be Fresno State +0.5 · getting 1 pt at Caesars · was +1A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -103 | 44.5 -105 | -121 | +107 |
All 22 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -132 | +107 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -111 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -132 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 44.5 -109 | -132 | +107 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 44 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -118 | 44.5 -115 | -124 | +105 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -114 | 44.5 -114 | -125 | +104 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -130 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -107 | 44.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -126 | +103 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -103 | 44.5 -105 | -121 | +107 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +1.5 · -103 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Washington State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Washington State by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -184 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5 | -103 | -111 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +105 | -100 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB 2:40pmOver 56.5Moved our way · 4 ptsshould be 60.1 · getting 3.6 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 +101 48¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5 -103 | 56.5 -103 | +180 | -207 |
All 21 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 +101 48¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -205 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 56 -105 | +175 | -210 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -118 | 56.5 -108 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +177 | -205 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -205 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | +160 | -205 |
| BetUS | +5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5.5 +100 | 56 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -117 | 56.5 -114 | +176 | -209 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 55.5 -115 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -106 | +176 | -215 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 56.5 -120 | +165 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -101 | 56.5 -108 | +177 | -205 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -111 | 56.5 -111 | +165 | -222 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -103 | 56.5 -103 | +180 | -207 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward NC State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +175 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.0 | +195 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 65.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +195 | +183 | +1.5% |
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +5.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -143 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.0.
Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana TechCFB 6:30pmOver 47should be 49.2 · getting 2.2 pts · was 46.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana Tech by 1, the Nasty Number says Army by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2.5 points more in Army's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -111 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -102 | 47.5 -103 | -106 | -106 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -111 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -103 | -120 |
| BetAnything | PK -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -1 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -110 | -108 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -111 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +1.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -103 | -120 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -104 | -121 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -105 | 47 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | -108 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -115 | 47 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -120 | 47.5 -106 | -106 | -113 |
| Fliff | -0.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -110 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -107 | 47 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 47 -110 | -106 | -115 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -102 | 47.5 -103 | -106 | -106 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
Marked: best for Army, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now -0.5. The market has moved 4.0 away from Army, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -0.5 consensus.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
BetRivers still has Louisiana Tech +1.5 while Pinnacle is at Louisiana Tech by 1. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +176 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.0 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights +1.0 | -109 | -111 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -0.5 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB 5:00pmUnder 62should be 60.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 61A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 62.0. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. The market's total is 62; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Oregon State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +101 | 62 -115 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 63.5 +109 46¢ | +198 32¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 62 -111 | +221 | -259 |
All 21 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +101 | 62 -115 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 63.5 +109 46¢ | +198 32¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -107 | 61.5 -117 | +200 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +7 -115 | 62 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 62.5 -105 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +101 | 62 -115 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -107 | 61.5 -117 | +200 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -108 | 62.5 -106 | +200 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 62 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 62 -115 | +215 | -260 |
| Courtside | +7 -110 | 62.5 -108 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +7 -112 | 62.5 -110 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 62.5 -105 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -106 | 62.5 -106 | +195 | -240 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -110 | 62.5 -115 | +200 | -260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +200 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +105 | 62 -114 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 62 -110 | +202 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -110 | 62 -111 | +221 | -259 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +105 | 61.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 62.0 · -105 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +238 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +209 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 56.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +6.5 | +101 | -100 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +210 | +213 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.9 consensus; moneyline +209 here against +238 consensus.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB 6:00pmOver 50should be 51.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -109 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -104 | 50 -114 | -601 | +453 |
All 22 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -109 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -110 | 51 -108 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -105 | 50.5 -108 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -109 | 50 -110 | -615 | +455 |
| betPARX | -14 -110 | 51 -108 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -112 | 51 -109 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 50 -110 | -615 | +460 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -120 | 50.5 -107 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 50.5 -106 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 50.5 -106 | -630 | +450 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -125 | 50.5 -115 | -660 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -105 | 50 -108 | -615 | +455 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -649 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -104 | 50 -114 | -601 | +453 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 50.5 +100 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F, 40% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.1 toward Arkansas). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -393 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -618 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -403 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -558 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +14.0 | -111 | -103 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +450 | +469 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB 10:59pmHawai'i to winour data says 60 in 100 · -137Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -106 | 51 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 52.5 +109 46¢ | -148 58¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -106 | 50.5 -113 | -150 | +132 |
All 22 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -106 | 51 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 52.5 +109 46¢ | -148 58¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 50.5 -112 | -157 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 50.5 -112 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -106 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 50.5 -112 | -157 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 50.5 -113 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -121 | 50.5 -112 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -120 | 50.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -114 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 50.5 -120 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -102 | 51 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -154 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -106 | 50.5 -113 | -150 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -137 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 83°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans ML, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -187 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -187 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -121 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 48.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -137 | -151 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -115 | -124 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB 2:40pmTennessee -5.5should be Tennessee -7 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was -7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Tennessee's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -218 | +178 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 54.5 -102 | -230 | +197 |
All 22 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -218 | +178 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -245 | +188 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -105 | 54 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 54 -110 | -218 | +185 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -245 | +188 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -245 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 54 -110 | -220 | +185 |
| Bovada | -6 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -107 | 54.5 +100 | -235 | +192 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 54.5 -103 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -230 | +190 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -230 | +188 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 53.5 -130 | -245 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -109 | 54 -108 | -218 | +185 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -111 | 54.5 -118 | -222 | +170 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -106 | 54.5 -102 | -230 | +197 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 54.5 -120 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee -5.5 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +6.5, only $130 available; Over 54.5, only $228 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -302 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -289 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -5.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -218 | -228 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-26 19:12; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB 2:50pmMissouri +5.5should be Missouri +5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -116 52¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 57.5 -114 | +189 | -219 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -116 52¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -110 | 58 -107 | +185 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -105 | 57.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -110 | 58 -107 | +185 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -112 | 58 -108 | +180 | -235 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 58 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -113 | 58 -109 | +178 | -213 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | — | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | +185 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 58 -108 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -111 | 57.5 -105 | +165 | -222 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 57.5 -114 | +189 | -219 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 57.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 73°F.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +206 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +124 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +144 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +152 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +189 | +186 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -103 | -103 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.6 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +206 consensus.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB 3:00pmNebraska -15should be Nebraska -15 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 15, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -116 | 52.5 -110 | -702 | +513 |
All 21 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -110 | 52 -109 | -910 | +575 |
| BetAnything | -15 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -15 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15 -110 | 52 -109 | -910 | +575 |
| BetRivers | -15 -112 | 52 -110 | -910 | +525 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -15.5 -107 | 52.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -755 | +495 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -900 | +575 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -752 | +510 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -116 | 52.5 -110 | -702 | +513 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -15.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -549 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -553 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -426 |
| Market (19 books) | -15.0 | -647 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -15.0 | -110 | +100 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -700 | -541 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New MexicoCFB 3:00pmNew Mexico -23.5should be New Mexico -24 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico by 22.5 to New Mexico by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -115 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -102 | -1914 | +1094 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -115 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Bally Bet | -22.5 -113 | 48.5 -107 | — | +1300 |
| BetAnything | -23.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| BetMGM | -23.5 -110 | 48.5 -102 | -2500 | +1300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -2400 | +1136 |
| betPARX | -22.5 -113 | 48.5 -107 | — | +1300 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -108 | — | +1300 |
| BetUS | -24 -110 | 48 -110 | -2400 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -23 -115 | 48 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 48.5 -104 | -2122 | +1290 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -2400 | +1200 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -23.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 6¢ +1150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -2200 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -115 | 48.5 -104 | — | +1400 |
| Fliff | -23.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | +1280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | — | +1300 |
| LowVig.ag | -23.5 -111 | 48 -108 | -2400 | +1136 |
| MyBookie.ag | -23 -110 | 48 -110 | -2500 | +1025 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -102 | -1914 | +1094 |
| theScore Bet | -23.5 -115 | 48.5 +100 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.
TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.8 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.5 | -2271 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1842 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -875 |
| Market (18 books) | -23.5 | -1924 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -23.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -2400 | -1594 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.8 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB 3:15pmSouth Carolina -2.5should be South Carolina -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3 to South Carolina by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 53 -103 | -127 | +113 |
All 22 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 52.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 52.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 52.5 -112 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -105 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -140 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 53.5 -106 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -139 | +114 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 53 -103 | -127 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kentucky). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 | -103 | -101 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +118 | +120 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-27 07:20.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic OwlsTexas Southern at Florida AtlanticCFB 5:00pmTexas Southern +46should be Texas Southern +43 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida Atlantic by 46.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 44 to Florida Atlantic by 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46 -110 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47 -111 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46 -110 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -47.5 -112 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -46.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -46 -110 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -47.5 -112 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -47.5 -113 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -47 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -47.5 -106 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -47.5 -108 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -46.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 63.5 48¢ -100 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -46.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -47.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -47.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -47.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -46 -110 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47 -111 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -47.5 -110 | 62.5 +100 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -44.5, now -47.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Florida Atlantic).
Kalshi thin: Under 62.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -46.0 here against -47.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -32.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic on different scales | |
| Market (15 books) | -46.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +47.5 | -110 | -155 | +8.3% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-30 09:06; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -46.0 here against -47.0 consensus.
The line is -46.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB 6:00pmBYU -6should be BYU -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6.5 to BYU by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -114 | 48 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +189 33¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -108 | 48 -105 | +187 | -217 |
All 21 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -114 | 48 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +189 33¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -110 | 47.5 -113 | +195 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +188 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -114 | 48 -110 | +186 | -220 |
| betPARX | +6 -110 | 47.5 -113 | +195 | -240 |
| BetRivers | +6 -112 | 47.5 -114 | +190 | -245 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 48 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 48 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -103 | 48 -109 | +187 | -230 |
| Courtside | +6 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 48 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | +184 | -225 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +185 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -110 | 48 -108 | +186 | -220 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 48 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -108 | 48 -105 | +187 | -217 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 32% chance of rain.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +207 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +201 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.0 | -108 | -101 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +189 | +201 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.6.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +207 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaCFB 6:00pmGeorgia Southern -1.5should be Georgia Southern -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia Southern by 2.5 to Georgia Southern by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -101 | 53 -111 | +111 | -125 |
All 20 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 53.5 -109 | +100 | -124 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 53 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 52.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 53.5 -109 | +100 | -124 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 53.5 -110 | +100 | -124 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 53 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 53 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 52.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 53.5 -108 | +104 | -125 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +100 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 53.5 -103 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 53 -110 | +104 | -127 |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -101 | 53 -111 | +111 | -125 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F, 35% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Coastal Carolina).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +110 |
| Market (18 books) | +1.5 | +116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +1.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +105 | +111 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB 6:00pmUTSA -12.5should be UTSA -11.5 · giving up 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UTSA by 11.5 to UTSA by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -102 | 55.5 -107 | +373 | -475 |
All 21 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -109 | 55.5 -112 | +430 | -625 |
| BetAnything | +12 -110 | 55 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | +380 | -500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +415 | -550 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -109 | 55.5 -112 | +430 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -113 | +430 | -625 |
| BetUS | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -485 |
| Bovada | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Courtside | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | +392 | -483 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -106 | +385 | -520 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +380 | -540 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +425 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +12.5 -111 | 56 -108 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -102 | 55.5 -107 | +373 | -475 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward UTSA).
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +11.7 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +404 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +382 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +452 |
| Market (18 books) | +12.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +12.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +400 | +400 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +11.7 consensus; total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise StateCFB 6:30pmBoise State -19should be Boise State -19.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20.5 to Boise State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -116 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -131 55¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -104 | 51.5 -101 | -1206 | +780 |
All 22 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -116 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -131 55¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | — | +1150 |
| BetAnything | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetMGM | -19 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -116 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | — | +1150 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 51 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -105 | 51.5 -107 | -1450 | +850 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -108 | 51.5 +100 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -102 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| Fliff | -20.5 +100 | 51.5 -115 | -1915 | +900 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1442 | +775 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -104 | 51.5 -101 | -1206 | +780 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Utah State).
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -829 |
| FPI | -20.5 | -914 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -865 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -449 |
| Market (19 books) | -19.0 | -1211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -19.5 | -105 | +101 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -1236 | -850 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Utah State Aggies since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB 6:30pmMiami -15.5should be Miami -15.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 -103 49¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Pinnacle | +15.5 -103 | 48 -113 | +577 | -815 |
All 20 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +14.5 -103 49¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Bally Bet | +15.5 -110 | 48 -109 | +575 | -910 |
| BetAnything | +16 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +520 | -750 |
| BetMGM | +15.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +550 | -750 |
| BetOnline.ag | +15 -104 | 48.5 -108 | +520 | -725 |
| betPARX | +15.5 -110 | 48 -109 | +575 | -910 |
| BetRivers | +15.5 -112 | 48 -110 | +550 | -910 |
| BetUS | +15.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +515 | -725 |
| Bovada | +16 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +550 | -850 |
| Caesars | +15.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +500 | -750 |
| Courtside | +15.5 -108 | 48.5 +100 | +545 | -715 |
| DraftKings | +15.5 -110 | 48.5 -102 | +525 | -750 |
| Fanatics | +15.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +550 | -800 |
| FanDuel | +15.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +530 | -780 |
| Fliff | +14.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +535 | -835 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +15.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +575 | -900 |
| LowVig.ag | +15 +100 | 48.5 -106 | +520 | -725 |
| MyBookie.ag | +15 -110 | 48 -110 | +510 | -800 |
| Pinnacle | +15.5 -103 | 48 -113 | +577 | -815 |
| theScore Bet | +15.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +18.5, now +15.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $451 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +797 |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +284 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +319 |
| Market (19 books) | +15.5 | +717 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Hurricanes -15.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Miami Hurricanes ML | -790 | -565 | priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.8.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB 6:30pmUSC -7.5should be USC -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says USC by 7.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from USC by 9 to USC by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 58 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 57.5 -109 | -319 | +265 |
All 22 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 58 -105 | -305 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -110 | 58 -108 | -345 | +270 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -325 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -105 | 57.5 -112 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -105 | 58 -105 | -305 | +249 |
| betPARX | -8 -110 | 58 -108 | -345 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -8 -112 | 58 -109 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7 -120 | 57.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -107 | 58 -112 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -110 | 58.5 -103 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -315 | +250 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | -350 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -101 | 58 -103 | -305 | +249 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -300 | +234 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 57.5 -109 | -319 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 95°F.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.7 consensus.
Courtside still has Washington +8.5 while Pinnacle is at USC by 7.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -286 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -352 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans -7.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | -305 | -284 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 4.2.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB 6:31pmTexas Tech -13.5should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas Tech by 12.5 to Texas Tech by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 50.5 | +456 17¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -110 | 49.5 -109 | +452 | -601 |
All 22 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 | 50.5 | +456 17¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 50 -109 | +410 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| BetMGM | +14 -120 | 49.5 -108 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 49.5 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 50 -109 | +410 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 50 -110 | +410 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +14 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -109 | 49.5 -109 | +425 | -590 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -103 | 49.5 -106 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | +450 | -630 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 | +435 | -640 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 49.5 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +420 | -599 |
| Pinnacle | +14 -110 | 49.5 -109 | +452 | -601 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 +100 | 49.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Colorado). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +13.5, only $119 available; Over 50.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +449 here against +545 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1116 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +368 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +428 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +449 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 | -113 | -111 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -524 | -494 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 08:38; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.8 consensus; moneyline +449 here against +545 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB 7:00pmIndiana -24should be Indiana -25 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 23.5 to Indiana by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -112 | 57 -106 | +1221 | -2237 |
All 22 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Bally Bet | +24.5 -108 | 57 -110 | +1300 | — |
| BetAnything | +24 -105 | 57 -110 | +1050 | -2500 |
| BetMGM | +24.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +1300 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +1156 | -2500 |
| betPARX | +24.5 -108 | 57 -110 | +1300 | — |
| BetRivers | +24.5 -109 | 57 -112 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -110 | 57 -110 | +1150 | -2400 |
| Bovada | +24 -105 | 57 -110 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +24.5 -114 | 57.5 -103 | +1200 | — |
| Courtside | +24.5 -113 | 56.5 -110 | +1290 | -2122 |
| DraftKings | +24.5 -115 | 56.5 -112 | +1200 | -2400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +24.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 6¢ +1150 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +24.5 -115 | 57 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +24.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
| Fliff | +24.5 -120 | 56.5 -120 | +1220 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +24.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -101 | 57.5 -108 | +1156 | -2500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +25 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +1117 | — |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -112 | 57 -106 | +1221 | -2237 |
| theScore Bet | +24.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +1100 | -2500 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Indiana).
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 56.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2008 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +594 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1200 |
| Market (19 books) | +24.0 | +2103 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -24.0 | -115 | -112 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2500 | -1766 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus; total 57.5 here against 56.9 consensus.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
McNeese State Cowboys at LSU TigersMcNeese at LSUCFB 6:45pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 -112 | 62 -118 | — | — |
All 18 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -54 -108 | 63 -109 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -54 -108 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -53.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -54 -108 | 63 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -54 -109 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -53 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -53.5 -113 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| Courtside | -53.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -53.5 -112 | 62.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -49.5 62¢ -178 all-in | 63.5 46¢ +108 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -53.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -54.5 -110 | 62.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fliff | -53.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -53.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -53.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 -112 | 62 -118 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -53.5 -110 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -48.5, now -53.5 (the market moved 4.8 toward LSU).
Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $235 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| FPI | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Massey | rates McNeese and LSU on different scales | |
| Market (16 books) | -53.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-30 09:06; total has moved up 1.1.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Tomorrow
14 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL tomorrow 8:30am · neutralCommanders to win +184 at FanDuelDon't add · now Commanders to win · +180 at FanDuelNasty Dog · called at +184Don't addBuck's case ›
Nasty Dog. Posted Friday at Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel. Don't add this. We posted Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel on Friday; now Commanders to win · +180 at FanDuel, and the case has moved against it since. It stays on the record at +184 and grades there. Market says Colts by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Colts by 4.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Colts by 3 to Colts by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 +105 | +175 | -202 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -112 | 47 -105 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +173 | -198 |
| betPARX | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -117 | 46.5 -112 | +179 | -213 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -115 | 46.5 -113 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -102 | 46.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +170 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -105 | 46.5 -113 | +173 | -198 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 47 -110 | +172 | -214 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 +105 | +175 | -202 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -104 | 46.5 -104 | +194 | -203 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +176 | -210 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Rachaad White (RB, Commanders), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 3 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +137 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +4.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +180 | +185 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -115 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Jaguars +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.2% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -122 | 52 -106 | -153 | +135 |
All 26 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 52 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | -141 | +119 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -144 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 51.5 -107 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -122 | 52 -106 | -153 | +135 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 51.5 -104 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -3 -109 | 51.5 -110 | -147 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 69°F.
Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Jalen Davis (CB, Bengals), Kyle Dugger (S, Bengals) and 1 more.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -119 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -115 | -131 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +125 | +115 | +2.1% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmGiants +2.5should be Giants +1 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -2.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Giants +2.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -107 | 44 -116 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 44.5 -103 | +120 | -135 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -107 | 44 -116 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 44 -112 | +120 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -107 | 44 -116 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 44 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -105 | +116 | -137 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -106 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 44 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -105 | 44 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -105 | 44 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -102 | 44 -114 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +116 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 44.5 -103 | +120 | -135 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -108 | +127 | -133 |
| ReBet | +3 -125 | 44 -120 | +119 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 +100 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +2.5 · -107 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 4.9 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 5 more.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -178 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -251 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 43.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +120 | +107 | +2.8% |
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -107 | -114 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -116 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL tomorrow 3:25pm49ers to winour data says 61 in 100 · -145A Little Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3. At -145 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 48.5 +100 | -142 | +126 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -113 | -139 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -118 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -113 | -139 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -113 | -139 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -120 | 48 -109 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 +102 | 47.5 -113 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 47.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -144 | +124 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 48 -107 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 48.5 +100 | -142 | +126 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -120 | -147 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -145 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from 49ers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $146 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -185 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -351 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -183 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -210 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -145 | -156 | +1.7% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | -118 | -125 | +1.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Denver Broncos since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL tomorrow 12:00pmOver 42.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 43.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 46A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 42.5. Massey and FPI say over by 3.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Rams by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Eagles's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -105 | 43.5 +102 | +164 | -188 |
All 26 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 43 -107 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 43 -107 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 43 -107 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -107 | 42.5 -115 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +164 | -196 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -195 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 42.5 -113 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +153 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -105 | 43.5 +102 | +164 | -188 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -104 | 42.5 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +157 | -186 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -115 | 42.5 -120 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 45% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams) and 6 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +142 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +160 | +156 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -115 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Los Angeles Rams since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmCowboys +3should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Cowboys's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 48 -117 | -152 | +134 |
All 26 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 48 -109 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -111 | 48.5 -110 | -162 | +142 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 48 -109 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 48 -109 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3.5 +107 | 48.5 -106 | -159 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -158 | +134 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 48.5 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -162 | +131 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +100 | 48 -117 | -152 | +134 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 48.5 | -144 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -158 | +134 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $288 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: British Brooks (RB, Texans), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -120 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +132 | +125 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL tomorrow 12:00pmRavens -11.5should be Ravens -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | -609 85¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | -687 | +504 |
All 26 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | -609 85¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -109 | 43 -109 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -12 -112 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | -680 | +494 |
| betPARX | -12 -109 | 43 -109 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -12 -109 | 43 -109 | -715 | +500 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -680 | +490 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 42.5 -114 | -700 | +480 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 42.5 -106 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -114 | 42.5 -118 | -770 | +540 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -870 | +515 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | -680 | +494 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -847 | +540 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | -687 | +504 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -113 | 42.5 | -614 | +567 |
| ReBet | -12 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -800 | +560 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $62 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.0 | -437 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -433 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -434 |
| Market (22 books) | -11.5 | -640 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +11.5 | -106 | -101 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +520 | +443 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBills -7should be Bills -7 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -104 | 50 -112 | -325 | +250 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -102 | 49.5 -111 | -324 | +269 |
All 26 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -104 | 50 -112 | -325 | +250 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 50 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -104 | 50 -112 | -325 | +263 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -325 | +265 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 50 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -120 | 50 -109 | -325 | +260 |
| Courtside | -7 -103 | 49.5 -110 | -302 | +256 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | -310 | +250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -340 | +275 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 49.5 -110 | -370 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +102 | 50 -109 | -325 | +263 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -105 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -102 | 49.5 -111 | -324 | +269 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -117 | 49.5 | -300 | +285 |
| ReBet | -7 -109 | 50 -110 | -300 | +246 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Bills).
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $168 available; Over 49.5, only $206 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), T.J. Sanders (DT, Bills), Christian Barmore (DT, Patriots).
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.5 | -251 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -254 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -210 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -229 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +6.5 | +101 | +107 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +275 | +276 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -108 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBears -3.5should be Bears -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 3 to Bears by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 43 -115 | -193 | +163 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 43 -108 | -192 | +167 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 43 -115 | -193 | +163 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 43 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 43 -115 | -190 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 43 -115 | -193 | +168 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 43 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 43 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 43 -115 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -108 | 43 -109 | -193 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 42.5 -124 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 43.5 +100 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -108 | 42.5 -118 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43 -113 | -193 | +168 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -193 | +155 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 43 -108 | -192 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 +100 | -178 | +170 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -189 | +159 |
| theScore Bet | -4 -110 | 43.5 +100 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Breece Hall (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Braxton Jones (OT, Bears) and 5 more.
New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -203 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -227 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -398 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -348 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -185 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -180 | -180 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at BuccaneersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPackers -3should be Packers -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 39.5 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 37.5 -131 55¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -123 | 39.5 +101 | +147 | -167 |
All 26 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 39.5 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 37.5 -131 55¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -118 | 39 -108 | +145 | -180 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 39.5 -107 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -102 | 39 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 39.5 -107 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -118 | 39 -108 | +145 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +3 -104 | 39 -108 | +145 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 39 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 39 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 +100 | 39.5 -107 | +142 | -170 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 39.5 -105 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 38.5 -118 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 39 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 39.5 -105 | +144 | -172 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 39.5 -105 | +145 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 +100 | 39 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 +100 | 39 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 +100 | 39 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 39.5 -104 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 39 -110 | +140 | -172 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -123 | 39.5 +101 | +147 | -167 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -122 | 38.5 -113 | +144 | -150 |
| ReBet | +3 -105 | 39 -110 | +143 | -170 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -105 | 39.5 -105 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 89°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 37.5, only $166 available; Under 38.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +159 consensus.
Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +185 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -103 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | -114 | -105 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -165 | -155 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +159 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL tomorrow 3:05pmVikings -10should be Vikings -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 10, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -108 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 38.5 -110 | -629 | +470 |
All 26 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -108 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 38.5 -109 | -590 | +430 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -610 | +460 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -610 | +452 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 38.5 -109 | -590 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 38.5 -109 | -590 | +430 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -117 | 38.5 -113 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 38.5 -108 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 39.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -105 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | -520 | +410 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -665 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -10 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -10 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -101 | 38.5 -107 | -610 | +452 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 38.5 -110 | -629 | +470 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 -108 | 38.5 -108 | -525 | +488 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 38.5 -120 | -599 | +450 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.5 | -472 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -436 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -461 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -423 |
| Market (22 books) | -10.0 | -549 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.0 | -108 | -107 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -520 | -430 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmChiefs -4.5should be Chiefs -4.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -108 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 48 -102 | +194 | -225 |
All 26 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -108 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -108 | +186 | -220 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 48 -107 | +183 | -225 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -113 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -215 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +186 | -220 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +179 | -224 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -104 | 48 -102 | +194 | -225 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 +100 | 46.5 | +194 | -203 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -109 | 47.5 -120 | +184 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Raiders).
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $104 available; Over 46.5, only $296 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 6 more.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.
Polymarket has the total at 46.5 while Pinnacle is at 48. Far enough off to be a pick, but no price at the book.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +201 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +181 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -220 | -196 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -112 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL tomorrow 3:25pmSeahawks -7should be Seahawks -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -112 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +106 | 43 -103 | -334 | +275 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -112 | -345 | +270 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -116 | 42.5 -112 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -102 | 42.5 -118 | -360 | +285 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 42.5 -116 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -118 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7 -115 | 43.5 -102 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -400 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -112 | 42.5 -109 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +106 | 43 -103 | -334 | +275 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +108 | 42.5 -108 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -350 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 42.5 -120 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Seahawks). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +7.5, only $445 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Seahawks -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -288 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -318 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -254 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -404 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.0 | -116 | -107 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -345 | -305 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -108 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-26 16:16.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL tomorrow 7:20pmLions -3.5should be Lions -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 3 to Lions by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -109 | 51.5 +102 | +172 | -198 |
All 26 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -107 | 51 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -105 | 51 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 51 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -107 | 51 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4 -114 | 51 -113 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4 -115 | 51 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 51 -108 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -122 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 51 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 50.5 -118 | +168 | -200 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 51 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +161 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -109 | 51.5 +102 | +172 | -198 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +104 | 50.5 -108 | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 50.5 -120 | +165 | -196 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 69°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Lions). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +167 here against +183 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +147 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.5 | -103 | +100 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +168 | +175 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus; moneyline +167 here against +183 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Oct 5
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at SaintsAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pmUnder 48should be 46.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 47.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 1, the Nasty Number says Saints by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -122 | 48 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 48.5 +101 | -123 | +109 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -122 | 48 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -141 | +114 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 48 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -122 | 48 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -141 | +114 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 47.5 -109 | -141 | +114 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 48 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -106 | 48 -107 | -136 | +114 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 48 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -132 | +112 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -118 | 48 -102 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 48 -110 | -133 | +109 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 48.5 +101 | -123 | +109 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 47.5 -104 | -117 | +113 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -130 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Falcons).
Also out: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Saints), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Da'Shawn Hand (DT, Falcons).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.0 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -136 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -192 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -159 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -1.0 | -122 | -117 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -127 | -123 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-27 21:32; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tue Oct 6
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at TroyCFB Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pmTroy -9.5should be Troy -9.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -121 53¢ | -360 77¢ | +266 26¢ |
All 8 books
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -121 53¢ | -360 77¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -375 | +285 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -355 | +280 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -104 | 49.5 -112 | -365 | +285 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -370 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F, 20% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans -9.5, only $52 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +9.5, only $364 available; Under 48.5, only $477 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -402 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -371 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -261 |
| Market (7 books) | -9.5 | -333 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5 | -118 | -116 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +285 | +312 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.4.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Wed Oct 7
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pmKennesaw State +3should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | — | — | -155 59¢ |
All 10 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | — | — | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 49.5 -112 | +130 | -162 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -103 | 48.5 -113 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 50.5 +100 | +128 | -154 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +2.5, only $357 available; Kennesaw State Owls ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -136 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +160 |
| Market (8 books) | +3.0 | +140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +3.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +128 | +123 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
Priced once the new ratings land.
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:30pmUnder 48.5should be 47.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 50.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -132 |
| Market (2 books) | -4.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +4.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +145 | +170 | -3.6% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Oct 8
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pmCowboys -9.5should be Cowboys -9.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -530 | +400 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -520 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -500 | +340 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -456 | +376 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -120 | 47.5 -109 | -469 | +360 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5, only $30 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $0 available; Dallas Cowboys -9.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -354 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -478 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -234 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -142 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -474 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +400 | +369 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Oct 10
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8.5should be Texas -9 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $35 available; Texas Longhorns ML, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +431 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +241 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +279 |
| Market (2 books) | +8.5 | +306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 38.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -8.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -335 | -305 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 40.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 1.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12.5should be Oregon -13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks ML, only $93 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -449 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -508 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -519 |
| Market (2 books) | -12.5 | -477 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -535 | -425 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 60.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sun Oct 11
7 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralJaguars -3should be Jaguars -3 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 44.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 44.5 -114 | -150 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 44.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -146 | +124 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 44.5 -110 | -149 | +121 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $6 available; Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 4 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -107 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -217 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -125 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -150 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 | -120 | -109 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | -147 | -136 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers -2.5should be Packers -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -136 | +112 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -136 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -137 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -102 | -134 | +114 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -110 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 44.5 -120 | -138 | +113 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers ML, only $82 available; Chicago Bears ML, only $32 available; Green Bay Packers -2.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Braxton Jones (OT, Bears), Aaron Banks (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 5 more.
Green Bay Packers has had 16 days off against 12, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -132 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -1.5 | +106 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -2.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -136 | -125 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBengals -9should be Bengals -9 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -120 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +9 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -120 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +9 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +9 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10 -120 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +8.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +360 | -470 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -116 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | +400 | — |
| ReBet | +9.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +340 | -461 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $3 available; Cincinnati Bengals ML, only $254 available; Over 46.5, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +361 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +336 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +344 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +175 |
| Market (11 books) | +9.0 | +438 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +9.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +410 | +359 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +6.5should be Titans +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Titans, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +250 | -315 |
| BetUS | +6.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 38.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 38.5 -115 | +265 | -330 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -105 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 39 -110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -355 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -110 | 39.5 -109 | +240 | -310 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +6.5, only $330 available; Houston Texans -6.5, only $467 available; Over 38.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: British Brooks (RB, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +199 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +164 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +180 |
| Market (11 books) | +6.5 | +288 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 39.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +6.5 | -105 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +265 | +238 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +152 38¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 44 -109 | -190 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -198 | +166 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 44 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | -193 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $415 available; New England Patriots -3.5, only $2 available; Las Vegas Raiders +3.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -226 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -188 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -219 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -191 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.5 | -173 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -191 | -180 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmUnder 45should be 43.6 · getting 1.3 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 44 -115 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +101 48¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -109 | 45.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 44 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2 -109 | 45.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 45.5 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 44 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +108 | -126 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -105 | 44 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | +111 | -136 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints +1.5, only $330 available; Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $135 available; New Orleans Saints ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Saints), Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings), Josh Oliver (TE, Vikings) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +175 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.0 | +124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 40.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -126 | -116 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmCommanders -2.5should be Commanders -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +129 42¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | -141 | +117 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 42.5 -109 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 43.5 -115 | -158 | +134 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 43.5 -110 | -149 | +122 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $7 available; Over 42.5, only $2 available; Under 42.5, only $112 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Rachaad White (RB, Commanders), Terry McLaurin (WR, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -237 |
| Sagarin | PK | -132 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -152 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | +100 | -100 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +134 | +125 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks6-650%-0.45 units12 games
Closing line value: +0.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 12. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
2-0 · +1.87 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty5-456%+0.62 units9 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 9. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
1-0 · +0.95 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty22-3042%-10.30 units52 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 23 of 35. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
1-1 · +0.07 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 6-6 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 5-4 | 55.6% | +0.6 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 22-30 | 42.3% | -10.3 u | |
| Not Nasty | 203 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-03 13:06.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 144 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 10.02 | 117 |
| FPI | 10.60 | 174 |
| The market | 10.68 | 235 |
| SP+ | 10.70 | 174 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 225 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.07 | 120 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 117 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 120 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 144 |
The line archive, 235 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 119 times, against it 82, and sat still 34. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 221 games. The close misses the final by 10.59, the open by 10.92, our raw ratings number by 12.37, Pinnacle's close by 10.56. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.08, MyBookie.ag 10.37, Pinnacle 10.56.
The Cut tracker. 7 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 1 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-1, +0.89 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 3; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 32 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 10.36 | 49 |
| Massey | 10.47 | 32 |
| Sagarin | 10.76 | 49 |
| nfelo | 10.76 | 49 |
| FPI | 11.04 | 34 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 32 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 32 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 32 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 32 |
The line archive, 49 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 15, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 44 games. The close misses the final by 10.37, the open by 10.50, our raw ratings number by 10.79, Pinnacle's close by 10.36. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.82, Polymarket 9.38, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.00.
The head start. 112 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 26, average 0.40 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 57.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| ratings 0% | 311 | 10.63 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 311 | 10.56 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 311 | 10.42 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 311 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 1-1 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Sagarin no vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 20 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 112 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 112 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 57. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Houston | UCF +10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 | same side |
| UL Monroe at South Alabama | Over | 54.5 | 55.9 | +1.4 | no call |
| Washington at USC | Over | 53.5 | 56.4 | +2.9 | no call |
| West Virginia at Iowa State | Iowa State +2 | 2 | -2.7 | +4.7 | same side |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Dallas +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay +3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | no call |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Under | 48 | 48 | +0.0 | same side |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Under | 43.5 | 42.5 | +1.0 | no call |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | New York +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Under | 48.5 | 48.5 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 197 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 136 | 13.4 | 38-49 (44%) | 24-26 (48%) |
| Massey | 138 | 12.8 | 30-36 (45%) | 10-21 (32%) |
| The blend | 141 | 12.9 | 29-37 (44%) | 12-20 (38%) |
NFL, 39 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 35 | 11.0 | 9-12 (43%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| FPI | 33 | 10.6 | 9-2 (82%) | 6-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 35 | 10.2 | 8-4 (67%) | 3-1 (75%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 58 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 4 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.
Since 2:30pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 0.9Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saintstoward Atlanta Falconsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 1%, give or take 22% (one standard error, 187 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 160 | 10.71 |
| nfelo | 49 | 10.76 |
| The market | 295 | 10.87 |
| FPI | 219 | 11.04 |
| SP+ | 185 | 11.08 |
| Sagarin | 285 | 12.05 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 129-133 | 49% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 5-8 | 38% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 7-6 | 54% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 882679 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.26 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 199 | 1.57 |
| DraftKings | 375 | 1.52 |
| FanDuel | 405 | 1.51 |
| BetOnline.ag | 361 | 1.42 |
| LowVig.ag | 353 | 1.41 |
| BetRivers | 394 | 1.38 |
| ReBet | 176 | 1.37 |
| MyBookie.ag | 290 | 1.36 |
| Bally Bet | 186 | 1.33 |
| betPARX | 186 | 1.32 |
| BetUS | 289 | 1.25 |
| BetMGM | 358 | 1.23 |
| theScore Bet | 180 | 1.21 |
| Fanatics | 328 | 1.18 |
| Bovada | 361 | 1.16 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 183 | 1.15 |
| Courtside | 147 | 1.15 |
| Caesars | 316 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 344 | 1.11 |
| Pinnacle | 360 | 1.11 |
| BetAnything | 164 | 1.05 |
| Fliff | 188 | 0.84 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 47 | 0.64 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 47 | 0.60 |
| Polymarket | 39 | 0.54 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 6 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today