Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 11:33 am · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:17am✓MasseySun 12:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 142 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pm✓FPISun 6:02am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 8:05am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Eagles at TitansTitans +7should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or TOM +7 at -105 (4.6%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (4.2%) · BetMGM +7 at -108 (3.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (3.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Jaguars at BroncosJaguars +2.5should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +2.5 at +105 (0.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.5%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-1.9%).Vikings at BearsUnder 47weather: 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Under): TOM 47 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 46.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 46.5 at -107 (0.7%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Caesars 46.5 at -112 (-0.4%).

Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 26 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +8, Cincinnati +7, Charlotte +14.5. Open

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +8should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMNasty Pick strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›5.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Kansas State at CincinnatiCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›5.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Louisiana at CharlotteCharlotte +14.5should be Charlotte +12.5 · getting 2 pts at FanaticsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›5.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Ball State at Kent StateBall State +4.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›4.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Navy at UABUAB +11.5should be UAB +10 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsNasty Pick strengthFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›4.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.UNLV at AkronMoved our way · 1 ptAkron +14.5-110 at FanDuel · 4.1% after the price, the Cut is 4.5% for this SauceDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›4.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +3.5-105 at FanDuel · 3.6% after the price, the Cut is 4.5% for this SauceDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›3.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Utah at Iowa StateIowa State +11.5-110 at DraftKings · 3.0% after the price, the Cut is 3%Damn Near Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›3.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

18 more, weaker reads

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.

Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Texas A&M +8 (Texas A&M at LSU) at 5.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.

If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Moved closer since the 10:31am build

Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 10:31am build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.

Today

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.0.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL 12:00pm

Titans +7

should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.0: all 4 ratings our side, 4.6% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 7TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 61.1 pts our side

FPI

Eagles by 52 pts our side

Sagarin

Eagles by 51.8 pts our side

Massey

Eagles by 6.50.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eagles by 6.50.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Titans is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.55 pts over the market

FPI

40.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.42.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 38.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+280 25¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+7 -110	40 +102	+264	-308

All 24 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	+255	-330
Kalshi	+6.5 +105 47¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+280 25¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+7 -106	39 -113	+265	-345
BetAnything	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-335
BetMGM	+7 -108	39.5 -110	+270	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7 -113	39.5 -110	+267	-330
betPARX	+7 -106	39 -113	+265	-345
BetRivers	+7 -106	39 -113	+265	-345
BetUS	+7 -115	39.5 -110	+270	-330
Bovada	+7 -120	39.5 -110	+260	-320
Caesars	+7 -109	39.5 -109	+270	-335
Courtside	—	56.5 -1882	+267	-316
DraftKings	+7 -105	39.5 -112	+260	-325
Fanatics	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+290	-360
Fliff	+7.5 -125	39.5 -120	+280	-400
Hard Rock Bet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+300	-375
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+7 -109	39.5 -107	+267	-330
MyBookie.ag	+7 -120	39.5 -110	+280	-350
Pinnacle	+7 -110	40 +102	+264	-308
ReBet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+290	-340
theScore Bet	+7 -115	39.5 -115	+290	-380

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or TOM +7 at -105 (4.6%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (4.2%) · BetMGM +7 at -108 (3.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (3.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Titans to win · +290 at FanDuel

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Titans loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel +290 (5.3%) · Kalshi 25¢ (4.6%) · Fanatics +275 (4.3%) · Caesars or BetMGM +270 (3.9%) · DraftKings +260 (3.2%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 39.5 at -109 (1.1%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 39.5 at -112 (0.4%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +303 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.0	+206
FPI	+5.0	+183
Sagarin	+5.0	+188
Massey	+6.5	+216
Market (22 books)	+7.0	+266

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+290	+223	+5.3%
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.0	-105	-126	+4.6%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline +266 here against +303 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL 3:05pm

Jaguars +2.5

should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars

A Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 2.5TOM, -119

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 11.7 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 35.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Broncos by 11.6 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 13.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 20.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jaguars is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.31.2 pts under the market

FPI

41.83.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

432.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -115	-142	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	45.5 -105	-146	+132

All 24 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -115	-142	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -115	45 -110	-152	+125
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-145	+125
BetMGM	-2.5 -118	45.5 -108	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -119	45.5 -115	-142	+122
betPARX	-2.5 -115	45 -110	-152	+125
BetRivers	-2.5 -115	45 -110	-152	+125
BetUS	-3 +105	45.5 -115	-145	+125
Bovada	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -122	45.5 -110	-150	+127
Courtside	—	61.5 -996	-145	+127
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-148	+124
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-148	+126
Fliff	-2.5 -120	45.5 -115	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -114	45.5 -113	-142	+122
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-148	+125
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	45.5 -105	-146	+132
ReBet	-3 -109	45 -110	-148	+125
theScore Bet	-3 -105	45.5 -110	-150	+130

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +2.5 at +105 (0.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.5%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +129 (42¢) at Kalshi

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): Kalshi 42¢ (0.3%) · Caesars or FanDuel +127 (-0.0%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +125 (-0.4%) · BetMGM +120 (-1.5%) · TOM +117 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 45.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%) · Caesars 45.5 at -109 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +2.5 · +105 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 22% chance of rain.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	+3.0	+143
Sagarin	-1.0	-113
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5	+105	+103	+0.6%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+129	+127	+0.3%
Total	Under 45.5	-105	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL 12:00pm

Under 47

weather: 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 4.5TOM, -106

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 8.5

FPI

Bears by 8.5

Sagarin

Bears by 6

Massey

Bears by 3.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 5.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

Massey

50.93.9 pts over the market

FPI

41.65.4 pts under the market

Weather

-4.520 mph wind, 94% chance of rain, takes 4.5 points off

Nasty Number

41.75.3 pts under the market

Under 47 is a weather call. 20 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -106	47 -112	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 +102	47 +101	-198	+176

All 24 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -106	47 -112	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Bally Bet	-5 -108	47 -107	-220	+175
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-215	+175
BetMGM	-4.5 -105	46.5 -110	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -106	46.5 -112	-215	+183
betPARX	-5 -108	47 -107	-220	+175
BetRivers	-5 -108	47 -107	-220	+175
BetUS	-4.5 -105	46.5 -110	-215	+183
Bovada	-4.5 -105	46.5 -110	-220	+180
Caesars	-4.5 -109	46.5 -107	-218	+183
Courtside	—	63.5 -6611	-213	+184
DraftKings	-4.5 -112	46.5 -115	-218	+180
Fanatics	-4.5 -105	46.5 -115	-215	+175
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-215	+180
Fliff	-4.5 -115	46.5 -120	-245	+185
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-225	+190
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-225	+190
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-225	+190
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -101	46.5 -109	-215	+183
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-216	+180
Pinnacle	-4.5 +102	47 +101	-198	+176
ReBet	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-212	+184
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	46.5 -110	-210	+175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -4.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): BetMGM or Fanatics -4.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · TOM -4.5 at -106 (-1.8%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-2.1%) · Caesars -4.5 at -109 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -110 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -215 at FanDuel

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Bears to win): Kalshi or BetMGM -208 (-1.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -215 (-2.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -218 (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 4.5 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): TOM 47 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 46.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 46.5 at -107 (0.7%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Caesars 46.5 at -112 (-0.4%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Vikings).

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-202
FPI	-8.5	-208
Sagarin	-6.0	-152
Massey	-3.5	-116
Market (22 books)	-4.5	-206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	41.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -4.5	-106	+101	-1.8%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-215	-191	-2.6%
Total	Under 47.0	-108	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-14 23:19; total has moved down 2.7.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 46.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals

NFL 3:25pm

Cardinals +3.5

should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Seahawks by 4.5TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 50.7 pts against us

FPI

Cardinals by 4.58.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 6.51.9 pts against us

Massey

Seahawks by 1.52.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 40.7 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Cardinals. nfelo at Seahawks by 5 and Sagarin at Seahawks by 6.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.94.4 pts over the market

FPI

37.62.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.20.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4.5 -125	40.5 -116	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -112	41.5 -101	+172	-193

All 24 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4.5 -125	40.5 -116	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetAnything	+4 -115	41 -110	+170	-200
BetMGM	+4 -120	41 -110	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	40.5 -116	+174	-200
betPARX	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetRivers	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetUS	+4 -115	41 -110	+170	-200
Bovada	+3.5 -110	41 -110	+165	-195
Caesars	+3.5 -104	40.5 -118	+174	-209
Courtside	—	55.5 -586	+184	-213
DraftKings	+3.5 +100	41.5 -105	+180	-218
Fanatics	+3.5 -105	41 -110	+165	-200
FanDuel	+4.5 -120	41.5 -102	+176	-210
Fliff	+3.5 -105	41.5 -110	+175	-230
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
LowVig.ag	+4 -110	40.5 -116	+174	-200
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	40.5 -110	+176	-210
Pinnacle	+4 -112	41.5 -101	+172	-193
ReBet	+4 -110	41.5 -110	+173	-206
theScore Bet	+3.5 -110	41.5 -105	+175	-210

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cardinals): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (2.2%) · Caesars +3.5 at -104 (1.2%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (0.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -120 (0.4%).

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +180 at DraftKings

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 36. That's value. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cardinals loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Cardinals to win): DraftKings +180 (3.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +176 (2.6%) · Caesars or Kalshi +174 (2.3%) · TOM +170 (1.8%) · Fanatics +165 (1.1%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 40.5 · -116 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · TOM 40.5 at -116 (-1.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 41 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 40.5 at -118 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 41.5 at -105 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.8 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+251
FPI	-4.5	-129
Sagarin	+6.5	+294
Massey	+1.5	+162
Market (22 books)	+4.5	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	41.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+180	+158	+3.1%
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +3.5	+100	-109	+2.2%
Total	Over 40.5	-116	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 19:04; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +3.9 consensus; total 40.5 here against 41.3 consensus.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL 12:00pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 9TOM, -101

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 8.50.5 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 9.50.3 pts against us

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 7.51.4 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 63 pts our side

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 8.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Browns. FPI at Buccaneers by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.53 pts over the market

FPI

40.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.51 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -101	41.5 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +106	42 +104	-396	+330

All 24 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -101	41.5 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -107	41 -113	-435	+330
BetAnything	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-8 -110	41.5 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 -101	41.5 -110	-410	+324
betPARX	-8.5 -107	41 -113	-435	+330
BetRivers	-8 -114	41 -113	-435	+330
BetUS	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-7.5 -110	41.5 -110	-400	+300
Caesars	-7.5 -109	41.5 -107	-420	+325
Courtside	—	54.5 -734	-412	+339
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	41.5 -108	-425	+330
Fanatics	-7.5 -115	41.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 +100	41.5 -106	-430	+340
Fliff	-8.5 -105	41.5 -110	-495	+335
Hard Rock Bet	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-9 +107	41.5 -107	-410	+324
MyBookie.ag	-8 -110	41.5 -110	-410	+320
Pinnacle	-9 +106	42 +104	-396	+330
ReBet	-8 -110	41.5 -109	-400	+330
theScore Bet	-8 -110	41.5 -115	-425	+320

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -119 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 49¢ (1.0%) · TOM +9 at -119 (0.8%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -105 (0.6%) · Caesars +7.5 at -109 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +340 at FanDuel

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +340 (2.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +331 (2.5%) · Caesars or Fanatics +325 (2.1%) · BetMGM +320 (1.9%) · TOM +300 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 41.5 at 49¢ (0.6%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -106 (-0.1%) · Caesars 41.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 41.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -119 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-287
FPI	-9.5	-317
Sagarin	-7.5	-253
Massey	-6.0	-207
Market (22 books)	-9.0	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-119	-123	+0.8%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+340	+290	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL 3:05pm

Raiders +6.5

should be Raiders +6.5 at FanDuel · was +7

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 60.5 pts our side

FPI

Chargers by 60.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Chargers by 81.6 pts against us

Massey

Chargers by 4.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chargers by 6.50 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Raiders. Sagarin at Chargers by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

39.54 pts under the market

FPI

40.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.83.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+235
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -116	-304	+261

All 23 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+235
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-320	+250
BetMGM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+252
betPARX	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetUS	-7 +100	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Bovada	-6.5 -120	43.5 -110	-300	+250
Caesars	-6.5 -117	43.5 -113	-310	+250
Courtside	—	43.5 -108	-316	+267
DraftKings	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-325	+260
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-320	+250
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+245
Fliff	-6.5 -120	43.5 -115	-340	+245
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+260
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -108	43.5 -107	-310	+252
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+250
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -116	-304	+261
ReBet	-6.5 -120	43.5 -110	-310	+250
theScore Bet	-6.5 -110	43.5 -110	-300	+250

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): BetMGM +6.5 at -102 (2.7%) · DraftKings +7 at -115 (2.7%) · Caesars +6.5 at -104 (2.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +6.5 at -105 (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +260 at DraftKings

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Raiders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +260 (3.5%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +250 (2.7%) · FanDuel +245 (2.3%) · TOM +235 (1.4%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -107 (1.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (0.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -6.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-207
FPI	-6.0	-214
Sagarin	-8.0	-271
Massey	-4.5	-178
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-297

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+260	+220	+3.5%
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.5	-105	-114	+2.0%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-13 18:10; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL 12:00pm

Jets +3.5

should be Jets +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 3.5on the market

FPI

Packers by 2.50.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Packers by 4.50.8 pts against us

Massey

Packers by 2.51 pts our side

Nasty Number

Packers by 30.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Jets. Sagarin at Packers by 4.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

47.33.3 pts over the market

FPI

45.81.8 pts over the market

Weather

-1.083% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

45.51.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	44 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3 -106	44 -106	+141	-156

All 24 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	44 -110	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -117	44.5 -107	+150	-186
BetAnything	+3 -105	44 -110	+145	-165
BetMGM	+3 -102	44 -120	+140	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	44 -110	+145	-165
betPARX	+3.5 -117	44.5 -107	+150	-186
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	44.5 -107	+150	-186
BetUS	+3 -105	44 -110	+142	-165
Bovada	+3 -105	44 -105	+135	-160
Caesars	+3 -103	43.5 -115	+142	-170
Courtside	—	67.5 -6611	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	44.5 -110	+154	-185
Fanatics	+3 -105	44 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -122	44.5 -105	+142	-168
Fliff	+3.5 -125	44.5 -110	+145	-190
Hard Rock Bet	+3 -105	44 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3 -105	44 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3 -105	44 -110	+150	-180
LowVig.ag	+3 -103	44 -104	+145	-165
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	44 -110	+140	-165
Pinnacle	+3 -106	44 -106	+141	-156
ReBet	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+147	-167
theScore Bet	+3 -105	43.5 -115	+140	-165

Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jets): DraftKings +3.5 at -112 (1.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -115 (0.8%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (-0.3%) · Caesars +3 at -103 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -122 (-0.7%).

Not Nasty

Jets to win · +154 at DraftKings

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Jets to win): DraftKings +154 (1.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel +142 (-0.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi +140 (-0.9%) · TOM +135 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 44.5 at 49¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 44 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.5 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward Jets, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.

DraftKings still has Jets +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Packers by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but 1.7% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+155
FPI	+2.5	+137
Sagarin	+4.5	+168
Massey	+2.5	+135
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Jets ML	+154	+145	+1.4%
Spread	New York Jets +3.5	-115	-119	+0.8%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New York Jets since 09-14 19:15; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +154 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Panthers by 2.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2

FPI

Panthers by 4.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Falcons by 2

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.55 pts under the market

Nasty Number

440.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 -105	43.5 -107	+111	-131
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	43.5 -105	+120	-132

All 24 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 -105	43.5 -107	+111	-131
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -107	43.5 -108	+125	-152
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	43.5 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	43.5 -108	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	43.5 -107	+111	-131
betPARX	+2.5 -107	43.5 -108	+125	-152
BetRivers	+2.5 -107	43.5 -108	+120	-148
BetUS	+2 +100	43.5 -105	+120	-140
Bovada	+2.5 -110	43 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -104	43.5 -110	+120	-141
Courtside	—	64.5 -2433	+133	-152
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-155
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	43.5 -105	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	43.5 -105	+120	-142
Fliff	+2.5 +100	43.5 -115	+125	-155
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-145
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	43.5 -104	+111	-131
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	43.5 -110	+122	-143
Pinnacle	+2.5 -106	43.5 -105	+120	-132
ReBet	+3 -125	43.5 -109	+124	-140
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	43.5 -105	+120	-140

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +2.5 · +100 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Falcons): DraftKings +2.5 at +100 (-1.5%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 49¢ (-2.2%) · Caesars +2.5 at -104 (-2.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +130 at DraftKings

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +130 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 43¢ (-1.4%) · Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM +120 (-2.3%) · Fanatics +115 (-3.3%) · TOM +111 (-4.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 43.5 · -107 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 39. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 43.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · TOM or Kalshi 43.5 at -107 (-1.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -110 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Panthers).

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.

TOM: moneyline +116 here against +129 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	-109
FPI	+4.5	+129
Sagarin	PK	-138
Massey	-2.0	-171
Market (22 books)	+2.5	+116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +2.5	+100	+106	-1.5%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+130	+132	-0.3%
Total	Over 43.5	-107	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-13 23:16.

TOM: moneyline +116 here against +129 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Ravens by 7.5, our data says Ravens by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 7.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 9.5

FPI

Ravens by 8.5

Sagarin

Ravens by 9

Massey

Ravens by 8.5

Nasty Number

Ravens by 91.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 9 to Ravens by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

The Four

Massey

47.53 pts over the market

FPI

46.21.7 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

46.21.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-7.5 -115	44.5 -112	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +111	45.5 -103	-381	+319

All 24 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-7.5 -115	44.5 -112	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -112	45 -112	-435	+330
BetAnything	-9 +100	45 -110	-430	+330
BetMGM	-8.5 -105	45 -110	-400	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 +101	44.5 -110	-420	+330
betPARX	-8.5 -112	45 -112	-435	+330
BetRivers	-8.5 -112	45 -112	-435	+330
BetUS	-9 +100	45 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-7.5 -110	45.5 -105	-430	+320
Caesars	-8 -109	45 -110	-400	+320
Courtside	—	59.5 -475	-364	+303
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	45.5 -105	-375	+295
Fanatics	-7.5 -115	45 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -102	45.5 -110	-420	+330
Fliff	-8.5 -105	45.5 -115	-510	+340
Hard Rock Bet	-8 -115	45.5 -110	-475	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8 -115	45.5 -110	-475	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8 -115	45.5 -110	-475	+325
LowVig.ag	-9 +104	45 -104	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-9 +100	45 -110	-391	+310
Pinnacle	-9 +111	45.5 -103	-381	+319
ReBet	-8 -110	45 -110	-380	+320
theScore Bet	-8 -105	45.5 -110	-400	+300

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -7.5 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): FanDuel -8.5 at -102 (-4.6%) · Fanatics or TOM -7.5 at -115 (-4.8%) · Kalshi -8.5 at 49¢ (-4.9%) · Caesars -8 at -109 (-5.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -8.5 at -105 (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -375 at DraftKings

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -375 (-4.3%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Kalshi -400 (-5.3%) · FanDuel, TOM or Fanatics -420 (-6.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 44.5 at -112 (0.6%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics 45 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 45% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.7 consensus.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.5	-336
FPI	-8.5	-280
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-8.5	-292
Market (22 books)	-7.5	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	46.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -7.5	-115	+106	-4.8%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-375	-295	-4.3%
Total	Over 44.5	-112	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.7 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 2.5TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2.5

FPI

Texans by 2.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2.5

Massey

Texans by 4

Nasty Number

Texans by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

51.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

46.30.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.93.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-147	+122
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-148 58¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +107	45.5 -104	-146	+132

All 24 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-147	+122
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-148 58¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-149	+129
BetMGM	-2.5 -118	45.5 -110	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-147	+127
betPARX	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetUS	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-145	+125
Bovada	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-145	+125
Caesars	-2.5 -115	45.5 -112	-152	+128
Courtside	—	51.5 -328	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -102	45.5 -110	-148	+124
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	45.5 -108	-154	+130
Fliff	-2.5 -130	45.5 -110	-170	+135
Hard Rock Bet	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -115	45.5 -105	-147	+127
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-161	+137
Pinnacle	-3 +107	45.5 -104	-146	+132
ReBet	-3 -109	45.5 -110	-147	+130
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	44.5 -115	-150	+130

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans -2.5 · -115 at Caesars

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texans): Caesars or FanDuel -2.5 at -115 (-0.6%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -120 (-1.7%) · DraftKings -3 at -102 (-1.8%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 53¢ (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

Texans to win · -147 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Texans to win): BetMGM -145 (-1.0%) · TOM, DraftKings or Kalshi -147 (-1.3%) · Fanatics -150 (-1.8%) · Caesars -152 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -154 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 45.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi, FanDuel or TOM 45.5 at -107 (0.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Caesars 45.5 at -112 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-134
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-2.5	-134
Massey	-4.0	-160
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans -2.5	-115	-112	-0.6%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-147	-139	-1.3%
Total	Over 45.5	-108	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5.5

FPI

Patriots by 5

Sagarin

Patriots by 5.5

Massey

Patriots by 4.5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

41.10.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.075% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -105	41.5 -107	-228	+178
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 +106	41.5 +100	-216	+191

All 24 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -105	41.5 -107	-228	+178
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	+189 33¢
Bally Bet	-5 -112	41 -113	-235	+185
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	41.5 -110	-230	+190
BetMGM	-4.5 -118	41.5 -108	-225	+188
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	41.5 -107	-228	+191
betPARX	-5 -112	41 -113	-235	+185
BetRivers	-5 -112	41 -113	-235	+185
BetUS	-4.5 -105	41.5 -105	-220	+185
Bovada	-4.5 -110	41 -115	-230	+190
Caesars	-4.5 -110	41.5 -109	-235	+194
Courtside	—	64.5 -6611	-220	+189
DraftKings	-4.5 -118	41.5 -105	-225	+185
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	41.5 -110	-225	+185
FanDuel	-4.5 -115	41.5 -110	-235	+194
Fliff	-5.5 -115	41.5 -110	-255	+190
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -110	41 -115	-240	+195
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5.5 -110	41 -115	-240	+195
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5.5 -110	41 -115	-240	+195
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -105	41.5 -104	-228	+191
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	41 -110	-216	+181
Pinnacle	-5.5 +106	41.5 +100	-216	+191
ReBet	-5 -110	41 -110	-220	+192
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	41.5 -105	-230	+195

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -5.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Caesars or Fanatics -4.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · TOM -5 at -105 (-3.2%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 49¢ (-3.9%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -115 (-4.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -4.5 at -118 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -228 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -225 (-4.0%) · TOM or Kalshi -228 (-4.3%) · Caesars or FanDuel -235 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 41.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars 41.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · TOM 41.5 at -113 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 41.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-186
FPI	-5.0	-180
Sagarin	-5.5	-186
Massey	-4.5	-166
Market (22 books)	-5.0	-218

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	39.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -5.0	-105	+108	-3.2%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-228	-187	-4.3%
Total	Under 41.5	-113	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL 3:25pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 4TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 4

FPI

Cowboys by 4.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 4.5

Massey

Cowboys by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

Massey

53.12.1 pts over the market

FPI

50.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -107	51 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-4 -108	51 -105	-204	+181

All 24 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -107	51 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Bally Bet	-4 -112	51 -109	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4 -110	51 -110	-210	+175
BetMGM	-4 -110	51 -108	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4 -107	51 -110	-205	+177
betPARX	-4 -112	51 -109	-215	+170
BetRivers	-4 -112	51 -109	-215	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+175
Bovada	-4 -115	51 -110	-210	+175
Caesars	-4 -111	50.5 -117	-209	+175
Courtside	—	71.5 -3439	-220	+189
DraftKings	-4.5 -105	50.5 -120	-225	+185
Fanatics	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+170
FanDuel	-4.5 -106	50.5 -118	-215	+180
Fliff	-4.5 -105	51.5 -105	-230	+175
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -110	51 -115	-220	+180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-4.5 -110	51 -115	-220	+180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-4.5 -110	51 -115	-220	+180
LowVig.ag	-4 -102	51 -107	-205	+177
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 +100	51 -110	-210	+176
Pinnacle	-4 -108	51 -105	-204	+181
ReBet	-4.5 -110	51 -110	-210	+176
theScore Bet	-4.5 -105	50.5 -120	-210	+175

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cowboys): Kalshi -4.5 at 48¢ (-3.8%) · TOM -4 at -107 (-4.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -4 at -110 (-5.0%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -105 (-5.2%) · Caesars -4 at -111 (-5.2%).

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · -205 at Fanatics

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): Fanatics or TOM -205 (-5.0%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -208 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -215 (-6.0%) · DraftKings -225 (-7.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 51 at -108 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-2.0%) · Caesars 50.5 at -117 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
FPI	-4.5	-177
Sagarin	-4.5	-172
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (22 books)	-4.0	-196

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys -4.0	-107	+111	-4.3%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	-205	-165	-5.0%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers

NFL 3:25pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 13.5, our data says 49ers by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 13.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.5

FPI

49ers by 15.5

Sagarin

49ers by 14.5

Massey

49ers by 9.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49ers by 13 to 49ers by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

45.30.3 pts over the market

FPI

46.61.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

461 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	45 +100	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 +100	45.5 +101	-985	+709

All 24 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	45 +100	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Bally Bet	-13 -109	45 -110	-910	+575
BetAnything	-13.5 -102	45 -110	-1200	+750
BetMGM	-13.5 -108	45 -108	-1000	+675
BetOnline.ag	-13 -115	45 -110	-1050	+686
betPARX	-13 -109	45 -110	-910	+575
BetRivers	-13 -109	45 -110	-910	+575
BetUS	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1000	+650
Bovada	-13 -115	45 -110	-1200	+700
Caesars	-13.5 -106	44.5 -117	-1000	+650
Courtside	—	67.5 -6611	-898	+652
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-13.5 -105	45 -110	-1000	+650
FanDuel	-13.5 -105	45.5 -102	-1000	+660
Fliff	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-1400	+725
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1200	+700
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1200	+700
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1200	+700
LowVig.ag	-13 -109	45 -107	-1050	+686
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1133	+753
Pinnacle	-13.5 +100	45.5 +101	-985	+709
ReBet	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-952	+640
theScore Bet	-13.5 -105	44.5 -115	-1200	+700

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Dolphins +13.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Dolphins): TOM +13.5 at -105 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (-3.8%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +13.5 at -112 (-4.2%) · Caesars +13.5 at -113 (-4.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +13.5 at -115 (-4.9%).

Not Nasty

Dolphins to win · +756 (11¢) at Kalshi

We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Dolphins to win): Kalshi 11¢ (3.6%) · BetMGM +675 (2.4%) · FanDuel, Caesars or Fanatics +660 (2.1%) · DraftKings +625 (1.5%).

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · +100 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 45 at +100 (1.2%) · BetMGM 45 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -102 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 45 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-431
FPI	-15.5	-730
Sagarin	-14.5	-642
Massey	-9.5	-317
Market (22 books)	-13.5	-904

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +13.5	-105	+106	-2.7%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+756	+553	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	+100	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL 7:20pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 5.5, our data says Chiefs by 6.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 5.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 7.5

FPI

Chiefs by 8

Sagarin

Chiefs by 8

Massey

Chiefs by 6.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 6.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.11.6 pts over the market

FPI

45.41.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.7on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	46.5 -105	-270	+210
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-6 +103	46 -107	-278	+241

All 24 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	46.5 -105	-270	+210
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Bally Bet	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetAnything	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-275	+225
BetMGM	—	46 -108	-275	+225
BetOnline.ag	-6 -106	46.5 -105	-270	+222
betPARX	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetRivers	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetUS	-6 -105	46.5 -105	-270	+225
Bovada	-5.5 -110	45.5 +105	-290	+240
Caesars	-6 -107	46 -112	-275	+220
Courtside	—	58.5 -563	-258	+220
DraftKings	-6 -108	46.5 -102	-265	+215
Fanatics	-5.5 -115	45.5 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-6.5 -102	45.5 -115	-290	+235
Fliff	-5.5 -120	46.5 -110	-320	+230
Hard Rock Bet	-6 -115	46 -110	-300	+230
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6 -115	46 -110	-300	+230
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6 -115	46 -110	-300	+230
LowVig.ag	-6 -101	46.5 -102	-270	+222
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	46 -110	-275	+228
Pinnacle	-6 +103	46 -107	-278	+241
ReBet	-6 -110	46 -110	-275	+228
theScore Bet	-6 -115	45.5 -110	-280	+230

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -5.5 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM -5.5 at -115 (-2.8%) · Caesars -6 at -107 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -102 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -270 at TOM

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -265 (-3.9%) · TOM -270 (-4.3%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Kalshi -275 (-4.6%) · Fanatics -285 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -290 (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.5 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 46 at -108 (-2.8%) · TOM or Kalshi 46.5 at -115 (-2.8%) · BetMGM 46 at -110 (-3.2%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (-3.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Colts).

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-243
FPI	-8.0	-275
Sagarin	-8.0	-260
Massey	-6.5	-216
Market (22 books)	-5.5	-258

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -5.5	-115	-103	-2.8%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-270	-219	-4.3%
Total	Under 46.5	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-14 17:34; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams

NFL tomorrow 7:15pm

No bet

market says Rams by 6.5, our data says Rams by 7

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 6.5TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 8.5

FPI

Rams by 5

Sagarin

Rams by 8.5

Massey

Rams by 7.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 70.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

47.20.3 pts under the market

FPI

48.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-6.5 -117	47.5 -110	-305	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7 +100	48.5 +106	-310	+266

All 24 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-6.5 -117	47.5 -110	-305	+230
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetAnything	-6.5 -117	47.5 -110	-305	+245
BetMGM	-7 -102	47.5 -108	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -117	47.5 -110	-305	+249
betPARX	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetRivers	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetUS	-7 +100	47.5 -110	-305	+253
Bovada	-7 -105	47.5 -115	-310	+255
Caesars	-6.5 -118	47.5 -110	-320	+250
Courtside	—	63.5 -770	-278	+236
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	47.5 -110	-285	+230
Fanatics	-7 -105	47.5 -110	-320	+250
FanDuel	-6.5 -120	47.5 -105	-310	+250
Fliff	-6.5 -125	47.5 -115	-345	+245
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -110	47.5 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -110	47.5 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -110	47.5 -110	-325	+250
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -114	47.5 -107	-305	+249
MyBookie.ag	-7 +100	47.5 -110	-310	+244
Pinnacle	-7 +100	48.5 +106	-310	+266
ReBet	-6.5 -125	47.5 -110	-310	+250
theScore Bet	-7 -105	47.5 -105	-300	+250

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -6.5 · -117 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): BetMGM -7 at -102 (-4.5%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -115 (-4.6%) · TOM -6.5 at -117 (-5.0%) · Fanatics -7 at -105 (-5.2%) · Caesars -6.5 at -118 (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -285 at DraftKings

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings -285 (-3.5%) · BetMGM -300 (-4.4%) · TOM or Kalshi -305 (-4.7%) · FanDuel -310 (-5.0%) · Caesars or Fanatics -320 (-5.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (0.4%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-1.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-278
FPI	-5.0	-181
Sagarin	-8.5	-282
Massey	-7.5	-250
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-292

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -6.5	-117	+105	-5.0%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-285	-240	-3.5%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal Carolina

CFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 1.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Coastal Carolina by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →

Market

Coastal Carolina by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game

FPI

Liberty by 1.5

Sagarin

Coastal Carolina by 2.5

Massey

Coastal Carolina by 3.5

Nasty Number

Coastal Carolina by 1.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

58.75 pts over the market

Massey

52.31.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

55.51.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Liberty ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -121 53¢	-121 53¢	-107 50¢

All 10 books

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Liberty ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -121 53¢	-121 53¢	-107 50¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -112	53.5 -108	-125	+102
betPARX	-1.5 -112	53.5 -108	-125	+102
BetRivers	-1.5 -113	53.5 -109	-127	+102
Courtside	-1.5 -108	54.5 -108	-118	+102
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	54.5 -110	-120	+100
Fanatics	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	-118	-102
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -110	53.5 -115	-120	+100
ReBet	-1.5 -114	53.5 -116	-128	-104

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Liberty +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Liberty): FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (-5.5%).

Not Nasty

Liberty to win · +100 at DraftKings

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Liberty to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +100 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -102 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 50¢ (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 53¢ (-3.3%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.

Full detail

We settle onCoastal Carolina by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI	+1.5	+118
Sagarin	-2.5	-128
Massey	-3.5	-145
Market (9 books)	-1.5	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Liberty Flames +1.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Liberty Flames ML	+100	+114	-3.2%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at Packers

NFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Packers by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 10

FPI

Packers by 13

Sagarin

Packers by 8.5

Massey

Packers by 8

Nasty Number

Packers by 70.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

40.65.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.21.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	46.5	-322 75¢	—

All 11 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	46.5	-322 75¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
betPARX	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
Caesars	-6.5 -114	46.5 -106	-295	+240
Courtside	-6.5 -113	46.5 -108	-290	+246
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	46.5 -110	-298	+240
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	45.5 -115	-335	+270
Fliff	-6.5 -110	46.5 -110	-325	+235
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	46 -110	-310	+228
ReBet	-6.5 -120	45.5 -120	-295	+240

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -6.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Caesars -6.5 at -114 (-4.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -305

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Packers to win): Caesars or DraftKings -295 (-3.9%) · Kalshi 75¢ (-5.5%) · FanDuel -335 (-6.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -114 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-1.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $5 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $249 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-252
FPI	-13.0	-372
Sagarin	-8.5	-209
Massey	-8.0	-195
Market (10 books)	-6.5	-279

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -6.5	-110	+103	-3.2%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-305	-243	-4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Fri Sep 25

4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · UAB, Navy at UAB

GameThe call

Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UAB

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pm

UAB +11.5

should be UAB +10 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +12

Sniff of Nasty · UABBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UAB. Market says Navy by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 10. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.0 as well.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore UAB →

Market

Navy by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UAB's last game

FPI

Navy by 7.53.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Navy by 4.56.7 pts our side

Massey

Navy by 8.52.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Navy by 101.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UAB. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

61.38.3 pts over the market

Massey

59.86.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

60.57.5 pts over the market

Over 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Navy ML
Kalshi	—	53.5	+351 21¢	—

All 10 books

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Navy ML
Kalshi	—	53.5	+351 21¢	—
Bally Bet	+11.5 -110	52.5 -110	+375	-530
betPARX	+11.5 -110	52.5 -110	+375	-530
BetRivers	+11.5 -112	52.5 -112	+375	-530
Courtside	+11.5 -108	53.5 -113	+392	-483
DraftKings	+11.5 -110	53.5 -115	+380	-500
Fanatics	+11.5 -110	53.5 -110	+360	-475
FanDuel	+10.5 -115	52.5 -110	+320	-420
ReBet	+11.5 -114	53.5 -114	+330	-500
theScore Bet	+10.5 -115	53.5 -115	+320	-425

Marked: best for UAB, higher payout on each moneyline.

UAB +11.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UAB): DraftKings or Fanatics +11.5 at -110 (4.4%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (1.5%).

A Little Nasty

UAB to win · +375

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UAB to win): DraftKings +380 (5.2%) · Fanatics +360 (4.3%) · Kalshi 21¢ (3.9%) · FanDuel +320 (2.2%).

Off the band

the Over 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 60. That's 7.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -115 (1.0%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UAB +11.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward UAB, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +11.5, only $169 available; Navy Midshipmen -11.5, only $50 available; Over 53.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI	+7.5	+212
Sagarin	+4.5	+159
Massey	+8.5	+244
Market (9 books)	+11.5	+435

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	60.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UAB Blazers +11.5	-110	-132	+4.4%
Moneyline	UAB Blazers ML	+375	+284	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at California

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pm

Clemson -1.5

should be Clemson -2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says Clemson by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Clemson than the bookmore California →

Market

Clemson by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game

FPI

Clemson by 5.54 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em1.2 pts against us

Massey

Clemson by 64.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Clemson by 2.50.8 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Clemson. Sagarin at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

47.80.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.42.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.11 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Clemson ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -116 52¢	—	-116 52¢

All 10 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Clemson ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -116 52¢	—	-116 52¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -112	48.5 -109	+100	-122
betPARX	+1.5 -112	48.5 -109	+100	-122
BetRivers	+1.5 -113	48.5 -110	+100	-124
Courtside	+1.5 -113	47.5 -108	-103	-113
DraftKings	+1.5 -115	47.5 -110	-105	-115
Fanatics	+1 -110	48 -115	-105	-115
FanDuel	+1.5 -118	48.5 -110	-106	-113
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-105	-115
ReBet	+1.5 -119	48.5 -109	-109	-121

Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson -1.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel -1.5 at -104 (2.3%) · Fanatics -1 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Kalshi -1.5 at 50¢ (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Clemson to win · -115 at DraftKings

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 53. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel -113 (2.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi -115 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 52¢ (-1.6%) · Fanatics 48 at -115 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-2.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson -1.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears ML, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onClemson by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI	+5.5	+173
Sagarin	PK	+102
Massey	+6.0	+181
Market (9 books)	+1.5	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Clemson Tigers -1.5	-104	-114	+2.3%
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-115	-126	+2.2%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at Temple

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pm

Temple +3.5

should be Temple +2 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel

Sniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Army by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Temple's last game

FPI

Temple by 0.53.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Temple by 0.53.6 pts our side

Massey

Army by 5.52.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

Army by 21 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Temple. Massey at Army by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

58.38.1 pts over the market

Massey

50.70.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.54.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Army ML
Kalshi	+3.5	50.5 -116 52¢	—	-175 62¢

All 11 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Army ML
Kalshi	+3.5	50.5 -116 52¢	—	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3 -109	50.5 -113	+128	-157
betPARX	+3 -109	50.5 -113	+128	-157
BetRivers	+3 -110	50.5 -114	+128	-159
Courtside	+3 -108	49.5 -108	+133	-152
DraftKings	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+130	-155
Fanatics	+3 -110	50.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	50.5 -110	+132	-160
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +105	49.5 -115	+135	-160
ReBet	+3.5 -133	50.5 -111	+126	-168
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	50.5 -110	+135	-155

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Temple): FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +3 at -110 (0.8%).

Not Nasty

Temple to win · +130 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Temple to win): FanDuel +132 (1.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +130 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (2.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.5 · -120 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +3.5, only $82 available; Temple Owls ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI	-0.5	-103
Sagarin	-0.5	-105
Massey	+5.5	+179
Market (10 books)	+3.0	+145

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	54.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +3.5	-120	-130	+2.0%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+130	+124	+1.3%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at Indiana

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says Indiana by 23.5, our data says Indiana by 21.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.

The spread

← more Northwestern than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Indiana by 23.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game

FPI

Indiana by 17.5

Sagarin

Indiana by 18.5

Nasty Number

Indiana by 21.51.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.42.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.42.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Northwestern ML
Kalshi	—	47.5 -121 53¢	-2042 95¢	+1242 7¢

All 10 books

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Northwestern ML
Kalshi	—	47.5 -121 53¢	-2042 95¢	+1242 7¢
Bally Bet	-23.5 -108	48 -107	—	+1400
betPARX	-23.5 -108	48 -107	—	+1400
BetRivers	-23.5 -109	48 -108	—	+1400
Courtside	-23.5 -108	47.5 -108	—	+1758
DraftKings	-23.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	+1600
Fanatics	-23.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	+1800
FanDuel	-22.5 -110	47.5 -115	—	+1280
ReBet	-23.5 -116	47.5 -116	-3030	+850
theScore Bet	-22.5 -110	47.5 -115	—	+1500

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +23.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): DraftKings or Fanatics +23.5 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel +22.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

Blowout line

Northwestern to win · +1800 at Fanatics

We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Fanatics +1800 (3.0%) · DraftKings +1600 (2.3%) · FanDuel +1280 (1.0%) · Kalshi 7¢ (0.8%).

Off the band

the Under 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 21.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI	-17.5	-668
Sagarin	-18.5	-762
Massey	rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales
Market (9 books)	-23.5	-3148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats +23.5	-110	-113	+0.6%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	+1800	+1115	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sat Sep 26

53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSU

GameThe call

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Texas A&M +8

should be Texas A&M +7 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +5.5

Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 8

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game

FPI

LSU by 4.53.5 pts our side

Sagarin

LSU by 5.52.4 pts our side

Massey

Texas A&M by 18.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

LSU by 71.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.16.4 pts under the market

Massey

52.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.93.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	-8.5	53.5 -103 49¢	-322 75¢	+252 27¢

All 13 books

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	-8.5	53.5 -103 49¢	-322 75¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -113	53.5 -109	-335	+255
BetMGM	-8 -108	53.5 -108	-350	+275
betPARX	-7.5 -113	53.5 -109	-335	+255
BetRivers	-7.5 -114	53.5 -110	-335	+255
Courtside	-8.5 -103	53.5 -108	-383	+319
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	53.5 -110	-395	+310
Fanatics	-8 -110	53.5 -110	-340	+270
FanDuel	-7.5 -115	53.5 -106	-315	+250
Fliff	-8.5 -110	53.5 -115	-350	+265
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	53.5 -110	-350	+260
ReBet	-8.5 -111	53.5 -111	-350	+244
theScore Bet	-7.5 -115	53.5 -105	-300	+250

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Texas A&M): FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (5.8%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +8 at -110 (5.8%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (5.5%) · Kalshi +8.5 at 53¢ (4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Texas A&M to win · +310 at DraftKings

We make it 33 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings +310 (8.6%) · BetMGM +275 (6.3%) · Fanatics +270 (6.0%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +252 (4.6%).

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 53¢ (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -8.5, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI	-4.5	-157
Sagarin	-5.5	-176
Massey	+1.0	+109
Market (12 books)	-8.0	-311

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +8.0	-110	-139	+5.8%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+310	+203	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Cincinnati +7

should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics

Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 53.5 as well.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →

Market

Kansas State by 7

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game

FPI

Kansas State by 34 pts our side

Sagarin

Kansas State by 16.4 pts our side

Massey

Kansas State by 4.52.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 61.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.84.3 pts over the market

Massey

56.32.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.13.6 pts over the market

Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Cincinnati): Fanatics +7 at -105 (5.6%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.3%).

A Little Nasty

Cincinnati to win · +220

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 31. That's value. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cincinnati loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): Fanatics +230 (5.1%) · FanDuel +215 (3.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (0.3%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI	+3.0	+137
Sagarin	+1.0	+108
Massey	+4.5	+157
Market (4 books)	+7.0	+257

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0	-105	-132	+5.6%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bearcats ML	+220	+183	+4.1%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.0.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Charlotte +14.5

should be Charlotte +12.5 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +13.5

Sniff of Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 52.0 as well.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →

Market

Louisiana by 14.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game

FPI

Louisiana by 7.57.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisiana by 7.56.8 pts our side

Massey

Louisiana by 9.55.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 12.52.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Charlotte. The Nasty Number is 2.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

60.99.1 pts over the market

Massey

58.36.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.67.8 pts over the market

Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	51.5 -121 53¢	+456 17¢	-660 86¢

All 7 books

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	51.5 -121 53¢	+456 17¢	-660 86¢
Courtside	+14.5 -108	52.5 +100	+487	-623
DraftKings	+14.5 -110	52.5 -102	+470	-650
Fanatics	+14.5 -110	51.5 -110	+475	-650
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	51.5 -110	+460	-650
Hard Rock Bet	+14.5 -115	51.5 -110	+450	-650
ReBet	+14.5 -119	51.5 -114	+420	-699

Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +14.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Charlotte): Fanatics or DraftKings +14.5 at -110 (5.2%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (1.4%).

A Little Nasty

Charlotte to win · +470 at Fanatics

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +475 (4.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +460 (3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 7.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (4.3%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -102 (3.7%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 53¢ (1.9%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +14.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +13.5, only $38 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -13.5, only $159 available; Under 51.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI	+7.5	+210
Sagarin	+7.5	+217
Massey	+9.5	+260
Market (6 books)	+14.5	+581

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +14.5	-110	-136	+5.2%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+470	+360	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Louisiana Ragin Cajuns since 09-20 06:03.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Ball State +4.5

should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings

Sniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 4, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Kent State →

Market

Kent State by 4

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game

FPI

Kent State by 0.53.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Kent State by 5.51.7 pts against us

Massey

Ball State by 1.55 pts our side

Nasty Number

Kent State by 30.9 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Ball State. Sagarin at Kent State by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

47.92.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.33.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.10.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.3%).

A Little Nasty

Ball State to win · +148

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Ball State to win): DraftKings +154 (3.6%) · Fanatics +150 (3.0%) · FanDuel +146 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Fanatics 51 at -105 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Full detail

We settle onKent State by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI	-0.5	-106
Sagarin	-5.5	-173
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (8 books)	-4.0	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ball State Cardinals +4.5	-110	-134	+4.8%
Moneyline	Ball State Cardinals ML	+148	+133	+2.6%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	+101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Iowa State +11.5

should be Iowa State +10.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +12

Sniff of Nasty · Iowa StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Iowa State. Market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Utah than the bookmore Iowa State →

Market

Utah by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game

FPI

Utah by 101.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Utah by 3.58 pts our side

Massey

Utah by 7.54.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Utah by 10.50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.12.4 pts under the market

Massey

50.72.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.4on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State +11.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): Fanatics +12 at -110 (3.7%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (3.0%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -105 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +380 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel +385 (4.3%) · Fanatics +375 (3.9%) · DraftKings +370 (3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-6.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +11.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI	+10.0	+278
Sagarin	+3.5	+142
Massey	+7.5	+213
Market (10 books)	+11.5	+474

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +11.5	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+380	+302	priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Nevada +4.5

should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Air Force by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nevada's last game

FPI

Air Force by 0.54.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Nevada by 1.55.8 pts our side

Massey

Air Force by 1.53.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Air Force by 3.50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

48.90.6 pts under the market

Massey

48.90.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
Fanatics	+4.5 -110	49.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -110	49.5 -110	+162	-196
Hard Rock Bet	+4.5 -110	49.5 -110	+170	-220
ReBet	+4.5 -114	49.5 -114	+162	-220

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel or Fanatics +4.5 at -110 (2.8%).

Not Nasty

Nevada to win · +166

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Nevada loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Nevada to win): Fanatics +170 (3.9%) · FanDuel +162 (2.7%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 49.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5, only $159 available; Air Force Falcons -4.5, only $158 available; Over 49.5, only $185 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI	+0.5	+104
Sagarin	-1.5	-114
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (4 books)	+4.5	+190

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	+166	+145	+3.3%
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5	-110	-123	+2.8%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at Akron

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Akron +14.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Akron +12.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel

Sniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore Akron →

Market

UNLV by 14

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Akron's last game

FPI

UNLV by 104.1 pts our side

Sagarin

UNLV by 211.9 pts our side

Massey

UNLV by 13.50.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

UNLV by 12.51.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

49.71.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.1on the market

Nasty Number

50.40.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	UNLV ML
Kalshi	+14.5	49.5 -116 52¢	—	—

All 7 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	UNLV ML
Kalshi	+14.5	49.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Bally Bet	+13.5 -109	51.5 -112	+450	-670
betPARX	+13.5 -109	51.5 -112	+450	-670
BetRivers	+13.5 -110	51.5 -113	+440	-670
Fanatics	+14 -110	50.5 -110	+475	-650
FanDuel	+14.5 -110	49.5 -110	+550	-820
ReBet	+14.5 -116	50.5 -116	+430	-752

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Akron): FanDuel +14.5 at -110 (4.1%) · Fanatics +14 at -110 (2.3%).

A Little Nasty

Akron to win · +550 at FanDuel

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Akron to win): FanDuel +550 (5.5%) · Fanatics +475 (3.5%).

Off the band

the Under 51.0 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-5.4%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 52¢ (-6.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +14.5, only $17 available; Akron Zips ML, only $79 available; UNLV Rebels ML, only $253 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUNLV by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI	+10.0	+276
Sagarin	+2.0	+123
Massey	+13.5	+406
Market (6 books)	+14.0	+612

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +14.5	-110	-130	+4.1%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+550	+378	priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.7.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

UL Monroe +14

should be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics

Sniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game

FPI

Florida Atlantic by 103.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida Atlantic by 7.56.3 pts our side

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 5.58 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 12.51 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UL Monroe. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

The Four

SP+ pace

63.44.9 pts over the market

Massey

59.51 pts over the market

Nasty Number

61.42.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Florida Atlantic ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Florida Atlantic ML
Fanatics	+14 -110	58.5 -110	+440	-600
FanDuel	+13.5 -105	58.5 -110	+440	-610
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 +100	—	+425	-600
ReBet	+13.5 -105	—	+400	-676

Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UL Monroe): Fanatics +14 at -110 (2.6%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.7%).

Not Nasty

UL Monroe to win · +432

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win): FanDuel or Fanatics +440 (2.6%).

Off the band

the Over 58.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $201 available; Under 58.5, only $185 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI	+10.0	+283
Sagarin	+7.5	+211
Massey	+5.5	+177
Market (4 books)	+13.5	+547

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +14.0	-110	-122	+2.6%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+432	+374	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSA

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Colorado State +13

should be Colorado State +11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics

Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore UTSA →

Market

UTSA by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game

FPI

UTSA by 6.56.2 pts our side

Sagarin

UTSA by 111.6 pts our side

Massey

UTSA by 112.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

UTSA by 11.51.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

54.71.8 pts under the market

Massey

58.31.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

Colorado State +13.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado State): Fanatics +13 at -110 (2.5%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (1.7%).

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +400 at FanDuel

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +400 (3.0%) · Fanatics +375 (1.9%).

Off the band

the Over 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI	-6.5	-197
Sagarin	-11.0	-322
Massey	-11.0	-306
Market (7 books)	-13.0	-450

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado State Rams +13.0	-110	-121	+2.5%
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+400	+336	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

UConn +3.5

should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5

Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Miami (OH) →

Market

Miami (OH) by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game

FPI

UConn by 0.53.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 30.3 pts our side

Massey

Miami (OH) by 0.53.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 30.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.75.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	UConn ML
Kalshi	-3.5	50.5	—	—

All 7 books

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	UConn ML
Kalshi	-3.5	50.5	—	—
Bally Bet	-3.5 -112	48.5 -109	-175	+143
betPARX	-3.5 -112	48.5 -109	-175	+143
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	48.5 -110	-175	+140
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	48.5 -110	-178	+146
ReBet	-3.5 -116	48.5 -114	-202	+150

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (3.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 52¢ (1.2%).

A Little Nasty

UConn to win · +144 at Fanatics

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (UConn to win): FanDuel or Fanatics +146 (2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -3.5, only $22 available; Over 50.5, only $14 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI	+0.5	+104
Sagarin	-3.0	-138
Massey	-0.5	-104
Market (6 books)	-3.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +3.5	-105	-121	+3.6%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+144	+132	+2.1%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at Toledo

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Toledo +1.5

should be Toledo -1 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5

Sniff of Nasty · ToledoBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Toledo. Market says San Diego State by 1, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

San Diego State by 1

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 3.54.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Toledo by 3.54.8 pts our side

Massey

Toledo by 44.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Toledo by 11.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Toledo. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

40.88.4 pts under the market

Massey

48.60.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.74.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Toledo +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Toledo): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics +1 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -120 (0.2%).

Not Nasty

Toledo to win · -106

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (Toledo to win): DraftKings -102 (1.7%) · Fanatics -105 (1.0%) · FanDuel -110 (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 49.0 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 49.5 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Toledo +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Toledo, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI	-3.5	-145
Sagarin	-3.5	-146
Massey	-4.0	-147
Market (9 books)	+1.0	+104

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets +1.5	-110	-121	+2.3%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	-106	-109	+0.8%
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Middle Tennessee +9

should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics

Sniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game

FPI

Jacksonville State by 6.52.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Jacksonville State by 122.8 pts against us

Massey

Jacksonville State by 81.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 8.50.6 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Middle Tennessee. Sagarin at Jacksonville State by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.74.2 pts over the market

Massey

53.7on the market

Nasty Number

55.72.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): Fanatics +9 at -110 (2.9%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Middle Tennessee to win · +260 at Fanatics

We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 25. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win): FanDuel +265 (1.9%) · Fanatics +260 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI	-6.5	-195
Sagarin	-12.0	-348
Massey	-8.0	-225
Market (4 books)	-9.0	-310

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	55.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0	-110	-123	+2.9%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+260	+241	+1.6%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at Georgia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Oklahoma +14

should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +12

Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 14

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game

FPI

Georgia by 12.51.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Georgia by 94.8 pts our side

Massey

Georgia by 94.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Georgia by 130.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Oklahoma. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

45.1on the market

Massey

504.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.62.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	-14.5 -107 50¢	45.5 +109 46¢	—	+490 16¢

All 13 books

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	-14.5 -107 50¢	45.5 +109 46¢	—	+490 16¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -114	45.5 -109	-625	+450
BetMGM	-14 -108	43.5 -110	-650	+500
betPARX	-13.5 -114	45.5 -109	-625	+450
BetRivers	-13.5 -115	45.5 -110	-625	+420
Courtside	-14 -108	45.5 +100	-646	+508
DraftKings	-14 -110	45.5 -102	-675	+490
Fanatics	-14 -110	44.5 -105	-700	+500
FanDuel	-13.5 -120	43.5 -110	-670	+470
Fliff	-13.5 -120	43.5 -115	-665	+450
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	48.5 -110	-650	+450
ReBet	-13.5 -119	48.5 -111	-699	+410
theScore Bet	-14.5 +100	43.5 -110	-800	+500

Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oklahoma): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +14 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.6%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 55¢ (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oklahoma to win · +470 at FanDuel

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): BetMGM or Fanatics +500 (3.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +490 (3.7%) · FanDuel +470 (3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (3.8%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 46¢ (3.4%) · Fanatics 44.5 at -105 (2.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -102 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 1330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI	-12.5	-372
Sagarin	-9.0	-252
Massey	-9.0	-248
Market (12 books)	-14.0	-592

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners +14.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners ML	+470	+385	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 1.9.

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCF

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

UCF +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be UCF +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2

Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more TCU than the bookmore UCF →

Market

TCU by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game

FPI

a pick'em3.3 pts our side

Sagarin

UCF by 3.57 pts our side

Massey

TCU by 2.50.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

TCU by 30.7 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

44.66.9 pts under the market

Massey

49.42.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

474.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	TCU ML
Kalshi	+3.5	50.5 -121 53¢	—	-161 60¢

All 8 books

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	TCU ML
Kalshi	+3.5	50.5 -121 53¢	—	-161 60¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -110	51.5 -112	+140	-175
betPARX	+3.5 -110	51.5 -112	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -112	51.5 -113	+138	-175
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+140	-170
ReBet	+3.5 -114	51.5 -114	+145	-196
theScore Bet	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+140	-165

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel or Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

UCF to win · +140 at FanDuel

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (UCF to win): Fanatics +145 (2.1%) · FanDuel +140 (1.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-3.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.7 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +3.5, only $52 available; UCF Knights ML, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTCU by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPI	PK	+102
Sagarin	-3.5	-142
Massey	+2.5	+130
Market (7 books)	+3.5	+159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +3.5	-110	-121	+2.3%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+140	+133	+1.3%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Under 49.5

should be 48.3 · getting 1.1 pts

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Washington State too: market says Arizona by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →

Market

Arizona by 12.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game

FPI

Arizona by 10.51.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Arizona by 75.7 pts our side

Massey

Arizona by 5.57.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 11.50.8 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Washington State. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

445.3 pts under the market

Massey

44.64.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.35 pts under the market

Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

Washington State +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington State): FanDuel or Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

Washington State to win · +390 at Fanatics

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Washington State to win): FanDuel +400 (2.8%) · Fanatics +390 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 45. That's 5.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Washington State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 11.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI	+10.5	+303
Sagarin	+7.0	+200
Massey	+5.5	+172
Market (3 books)	+12.5	+485

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +12.5	-110	-117	+1.5%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+390	+339	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling Green

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Under 51.5

should be 50.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says South Florida by 15, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 17, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

South Florida by 15

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game

FPI

South Florida by 226.5 pts our side

Sagarin

South Florida by 14.50.7 pts against us

Massey

South Florida by 171.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Florida by 171.6 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean South Florida. Sagarin at South Florida by 14.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.93.6 pts under the market

Massey

49.61.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.82.7 pts under the market

Under 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	South Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-788 88¢

All 7 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	South Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-788 88¢
Bally Bet	+14.5 -112	51.5 -110	+500	-715
betPARX	+14.5 -112	51.5 -110	+500	-715
BetRivers	+14.5 -113	51.5 -112	+425	-715
Fanatics	+16 -110	51.5 -110	+550	-800
FanDuel	+15.5 -105	51.5 -110	+610	-950
ReBet	+16.5 -114	51.5 -114	+480	-901

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -15.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Florida): Fanatics -16 at -110 (0.5%) · FanDuel -15.5 at -115 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

South Florida to win · -733

We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Florida to win): Kalshi or Fanatics -788 (-2.7%) · FanDuel -950 (-4.4%).

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (0.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $26 available; Under 51.5, only $26 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Florida by 1740% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI	+22.0	+1148
Sagarin	+14.5	+467
Massey	+17.0	+616
Market (6 books)	+15.0	+685

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls -15.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	-733	-618	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Under 59.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 58.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans West Virginia too: market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 1.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

West Virginia by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game

FPI

West Virginia by 2.51.2 pts our side

Sagarin

West Virginia by 42.8 pts our side

Massey

West Virginia by 64.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

West Virginia by 1.50.4 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.96.5 pts under the market

Massey

53.65.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.26.2 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

West Virginia -1.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (West Virginia): Fanatics -1 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

West Virginia to win · -119

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): Fanatics -115 (0.9%) · DraftKings -118 (0.2%) · FanDuel -126 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 59.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 6.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Fanatics 59 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (-1.5%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 3.8 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onWest Virginia by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI	-2.5	-129
Sagarin	-4.0	-152
Massey	-6.0	-184
Market (10 books)	-1.5	-109

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	West Virginia Mountaineers -1.0	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	West Virginia Mountaineers ML	-119	-119	+0.0%
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.0.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm

Tulsa +8

should be Tulsa +7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +9.5

Sniff of Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 8, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Arkansas by 8

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Arkansas by 1.56.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Arkansas by 102.1 pts against us

Massey

Arkansas by 17.59.7 pts against us

Nasty Number

Arkansas by 7.50.6 pts off the market

1 of 3 systems lean Tulsa. Sagarin at Arkansas by 10 and Massey at Arkansas by 17.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

62.910.4 pts over the market

Massey

53.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

58.45.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.9 points of the book.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tulsa ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tulsa ML
Fanatics	-8 -105	52.5 -110	-330	+260
FanDuel	-8.5 -102	52.5 -110	-315	+250
ReBet	-7.5 -114	—	-340	+234

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +8.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Tulsa): Fanatics +8 at -115 (3.5%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -120 (3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Tulsa to win · +250 at FanDuel

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Tulsa loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): Fanatics +260 (4.2%) · FanDuel +250 (3.4%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (2.0%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +8.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks -7.5, only $182 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5, only $130 available; Over 52.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI	-1.5	-118
Sagarin	-10.0	-286
Massey	-17.5	-679
Market (3 books)	-8.0	-294

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	58.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tulsa Golden Hurricane +8.0	-110	-133	+4.6%
Moneyline	Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML	+250	+213	+3.4%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at Auburn

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pm

Under 52.5

should be 51.5 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 52.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

Auburn by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game

FPI

Auburn by 9on the market

Sagarin

Auburn by 9on the market

Massey

Auburn by 4.54.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Auburn by 90.1 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.23.5 pts under the market

Massey

48.44.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.83.9 pts under the market

Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢

All 11 books

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢
Bally Bet	-9 -112	52.5 -112	-375	+285
betPARX	-9 -112	52.5 -112	-375	+285
BetRivers	-9 -113	52.5 -113	-385	+285
Courtside	-9.5 -108	52.5 -108	-350	+293
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	52.5 -110	-360	+285
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	52.5 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-8.5 -112	53.5 -112	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	52.5 -115	-375	+275
ReBet	-9.5 -119	52.5 -116	-400	+270
theScore Bet	-8.5 -115	53.5 -115	-360	+280

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings or Fanatics +9.5 at -110 (1.8%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -108 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · +285 at DraftKings

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 24. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Fanatics +290 (2.5%) · DraftKings +285 (2.2%) · FanDuel +270 (1.1%) · Kalshi 26¢ (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (3.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (0.0%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $22 available; Under 53.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAuburn by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI	-9.0	-252
Sagarin	-9.0	-255
Massey	-4.5	-158
Market (10 books)	-9.0	-334

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+285	+255	+2.2%
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +9.0	-110	-117	+1.4%
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Under 55Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 53.8 · getting 1.2 pts

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Georgia State by 9, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Georgia State →

Market

Georgia State by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game

FPI

Georgia State by 10.5

Sagarin

Georgia State by 11

Massey

Georgia State by 5

Nasty Number

Georgia State by 9.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

52.52.4 pts under the market

Massey

49.65.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.13.9 pts under the market

Under 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Georgia State -9.0 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia State): Fanatics -9.5 at -110 (-5.7%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -115 (-6.8%).

Not Nasty

Georgia State to win · -355

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Georgia State to win): Fanatics -350 (-5.2%) · FanDuel -420 (-8.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.0%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia State by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI	-10.5	-296
Sagarin	-11.0	-308
Massey	-5.0	-164
Market (6 books)	-9.0	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers -9.0	-110	+112	-5.3%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	-355	-265	-5.4%
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at Wyoming

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm

Under 45.5

should be 44.3 · getting 1.2 pts

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 45.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Wyoming →

Market

Hawai'i by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wyoming's last game

FPI

Hawai'i by 9

Sagarin

Hawai'i by 2.5

Massey

Hawai'i by 0.5

Nasty Number

Hawai'i by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

SP+ pace

42.72.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.11.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.63.9 pts under the market

Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	45.5 -112 51¢	+152 38¢	—

All 8 books

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	45.5 -112 51¢	+152 38¢	—
Bally Bet	+5.5 -110	45.5 -112	+175	-215
betPARX	+5.5 -110	45.5 -112	+175	-215
BetRivers	+5.5 -112	45.5 -113	+170	-220
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+172	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+4.5 -105	45.5 -110	+180	-230
ReBet	+5.5 -116	45.5 -114	+174	-238

Marked: best for the Wyoming side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -5.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Hawai'i): FanDuel or Fanatics -5.5 at -110 (-4.7%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Hawai'i to win · -210 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): FanDuel -210 (-4.2%) · Fanatics -225 (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 44. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (0.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $78 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $112 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHawai'i by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI	+9.0	+251
Sagarin	+2.5	+127
Massey	+0.5	+103
Market (7 books)	+5.5	+201

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5	-110	+110	-4.7%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	-210	-174	-4.2%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at Florida

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 58.5

should be 56.8 · getting 1.5 pts

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 58.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game

FPI

Florida by 1

Sagarin

Florida by 4

Massey

Ole Miss by 4.5

Nasty Number

Florida by 1.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 1.5 to Florida by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.37 pts under the market

Massey

56.51.8 pts under the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

53.25.1 pts under the market

Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	—	58.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+105 47¢

All 13 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	—	58.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2 -108	58.5 -108	-127	+105
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	58.5 -110	-130	+110
betPARX	-2 -108	58.5 -108	-127	+105
BetRivers	-2 -109	58.5 -109	-129	+104
Courtside	-1.5 -113	57.5 -116	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	57.5 -118	-122	+102
Fanatics	-2 -110	58 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	58.5 -115	-137	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -115	58.5 -120	-135	+105
Hard Rock Bet	—	58.5 -110	-125	+105
ReBet	—	58.5 -111	-134	+101
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	58.5 -115	-135	+115

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ole Miss): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (-3.1%) · Fanatics +2 at -110 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

Ole Miss to win · +114 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Ole Miss to win): FanDuel +114 (-1.1%) · BetMGM +110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +105 (-3.0%) · DraftKings +102 (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 58.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -105 (3.1%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -108 (2.4%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -102 (1.3%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (0.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Florida).

Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $25 available; Ole Miss Rebels +2.5, only $356 available; Under 58.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI	-1.0	-109
Sagarin	-4.0	-150
Massey	+4.5	+156
Market (12 books)	-2.0	-117

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ole Miss Rebels +2.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Moneyline	Ole Miss Rebels ML	+114	+119	-1.1%
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at Maryland

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 57.5

should be 56 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Maryland →

Market

UCLA by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game

FPI

Maryland by 0.5

Sagarin

Maryland by 1.5

Massey

Maryland by 1

Nasty Number

UCLA by 20.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.48.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.46.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.47.1 pts under the market

Under 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	UCLA ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—

All 10 books

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	UCLA ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	57.5 -109	+116	-141
betPARX	+2.5 -108	57.5 -109	+116	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	57.5 -110	+115	-143
Courtside	+2.5 -108	56.5 -108	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	56.5 -110	+110	-130
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	57.5 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -108	58.5 -110	+112	-134
ReBet	+2.5 -114	57.5 -111	+107	-143
theScore Bet	+2.5 -110	58.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Maryland): FanDuel +2.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Maryland to win · +112 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Maryland to win): FanDuel +112 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. That's 7.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (3.8%) · Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $42 available; Under 57.5, only $74 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $61 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI	-0.5	-103
Sagarin	-1.5	-115
Massey	-1.0	-108
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +2.5	-110	-100	-2.4%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+112	+121	-1.9%
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 6.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western Michigan

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Western Michigan +8.5

should be Western Michigan +7 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was +7

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Boise State by 7.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

Boise State by 61.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Boise State by 2.55.2 pts our side

Massey

Boise State by 9.51.8 pts against us

Nasty Number

Boise State by 70.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Western Michigan. Massey at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

44.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

50.42.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.7on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (6.1%) · DraftKings +7.5 at -108 (4.6%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (4.2%).

A Little Nasty

Western Michigan to win · +260 at FanDuel

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Western Michigan loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): FanDuel +260 (4.8%) · Fanatics +250 (4.0%) · DraftKings +240 (3.2%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 0.6 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	+6.0	+183
Sagarin	+2.5	+128
Massey	+9.5	+264
Market (9 books)	+7.5	+288

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos +8.5	-110	-141	+6.1%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	+260	+207	+4.8%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pm

Minnesota +9

should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was +7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game

FPI

Washington by 71.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Washington by 7.51.5 pts our side

Massey

Washington by 123.1 pts against us

Nasty Number

Washington by 8.50.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Minnesota. Massey at Washington by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

SP+ pace

40.84.9 pts under the market

Massey

45.40.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.12.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	—

All 7 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	—
Courtside	-9.5 -108	45.5 -108	-397	+329
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	45.5 -110	-410	+320
Fanatics	-9 -110	45.5 -105	-400	+310
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	46.5 -105	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -115	45.5 -110	-375	+275
ReBet	-8.5 -116	45.5 -114	-400	+270

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Minnesota): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.6%) · Fanatics +9 at -110 (3.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.8%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 53¢ (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Minnesota to win · +320 at DraftKings

We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): DraftKings +320 (5.8%) · Fanatics +310 (5.3%) · FanDuel +270 (2.6%).

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI	-7.0	-207
Sagarin	-7.5	-213
Massey	-12.0	-350
Market (6 books)	-9.0	-349

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.0	-110	-125	+3.2%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	+320	+237	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.8.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Sacramento State +6.5

should be Sacramento State +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →

Market

Massachusetts by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game

FPI

Massachusetts by 11.55 pts against us

Sagarin

Sacramento State by 17.4 pts our side

Massey

Sacramento State by 5.512.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Massachusetts by 60.3 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Sacramento State. FPI at Massachusetts by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

49.30.7 pts under the market

Massey

54.54.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.91.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sacramento State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Sacramento State): FanDuel +6.5 at -104 (1.5%) · Fanatics +6.5 at -105 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Sacramento State to win · +202 at FanDuel

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Sacramento State to win): Fanatics +210 (2.4%) · FanDuel +202 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -118 (-1.8%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Sacramento State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail

We settle onMassachusetts by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI	+11.5	+330
Sagarin	-1.0	-110
Massey	-5.5	-178
Market (3 books)	+6.5	+237

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +6.5	-104	-111	+1.5%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+202	+189	+1.5%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.5.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Oregon to win

our data says 54 in 100 · -115

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →

Market

Oregon by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

FPI

Oregon by 1.5on the market

Sagarin

Oregon by 31.2 pts our side

Massey

Oregon by 31.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon by 1.50.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Oregon. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oregon is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

60.62.2 pts under the market

Massey

62.50.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.51.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 63.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -112 51¢	+101 48¢	-131 55¢

All 12 books

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -112 51¢	+101 48¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -110	63.5 -113	+104	-125
BetMGM	+1.5 -108	62.5 -108	+100	-120
betPARX	+1.5 -110	63.5 -113	+104	-125
BetRivers	+1.5 -110	63.5 -114	+102	-127
Courtside	+1.5 -113	62.5 -108	-103	-113
DraftKings	+1.5 -115	62.5 -110	-105	-115
Fanatics	+1 -105	62.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	62.5 -110	+106	-128
Fliff	+1.5 -115	62.5 -115	+100	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	62.5 -110	+100	-120
ReBet	+1.5 -114	62.5 -114	-105	-126

Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -1.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings -1.5 at -105 (0.6%) · Fanatics -1 at -115 (-0.3%) · BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 51¢ (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -115 at DraftKings

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 53. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -120 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -128 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 55¢ (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 63.0 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 62.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 62.5 at 53¢ (-4.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon to win · -115 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now +1.5. The market has moved 3.4 toward Oregon, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI	+1.5	+117
Sagarin	+3.0	+132
Massey	+3.0	+135
Market (11 books)	+1.5	+111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	63.0	61.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-115	-119	+0.9%
Spread	Oregon Ducks -1.5	-105	-108	+0.6%
Total	Under 63.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.3.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston College

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Boston College +14.5

should be Boston College +14 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +15

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Boston College →

Market

Virginia Tech by 14.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 150.8 pts against us

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 113.4 pts our side

Massey

Virginia Tech by 311.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 140.4 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Boston College. FPI at Virginia Tech by 15 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

52.51.3 pts under the market

Massey

55.51.7 pts over the market

Weather

-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off

Nasty Number

52.61.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	+14.5	53.5 -116 52¢	+490 16¢	-719 87¢

All 10 books

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	+14.5	53.5 -116 52¢	+490 16¢	-719 87¢
Bally Bet	+14.5 -109	53.5 -112	+500	-715
betPARX	+14.5 -109	53.5 -112	+500	-715
BetRivers	+14.5 -110	53.5 -113	+440	-715
Courtside	+14 -108	54.5 -108	+508	-646
DraftKings	+14 -110	54.5 -110	+490	-675
Fanatics	+15 -110	54 +100	+500	-700
FanDuel	+14.5 -110	53.5 -115	+490	-710
ReBet	+14.5 -111	53.5 -119	+430	-752
theScore Bet	+14.5 -110	53.5 -115	+475	-750

Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Boston College): Fanatics +15 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings +14 at -110 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

Boston College to win · +495 at Fanatics

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): Fanatics +500 (1.8%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or DraftKings +490 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (-2.6%) · Fanatics 54 at -120 (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Boston College +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 62°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Boston College, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles +14.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI	+15.0	+505
Sagarin	+11.0	+314
Massey	+3.0	+134
Market (9 books)	+14.5	+624

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boston College Eagles +14.5	-110	-112	+0.4%
Moneyline	Boston College Eagles ML	+495	+441	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03.

Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at Tennessee

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Tennessee +5.5

should be Tennessee +5.5 at DraftKings · was +4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Texas by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game

FPI

Texas by 7.51.9 pts against us

Sagarin

Texas by 23.7 pts our side

Massey

Texas by 23.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texas by 5.50.2 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Tennessee. FPI at Texas by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

62.14.6 pts over the market

Massey

602.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

613.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	—	+166 36¢	—

All 12 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	—	+166 36¢	—
Bally Bet	+5.5 -110	57.5 -109	+170	-215
betPARX	+5.5 -110	57.5 -109	+170	-215
BetRivers	+5.5 -112	57.5 -110	+170	-215
Courtside	+5.5 -108	57.5 -108	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+180	-218
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+175	-215
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	57.5 -105	+172	-210
Fliff	+5.5 -115	57.5 -115	+170	-220
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+180	-230
ReBet	+5.5 -111	57.5 -111	+173	-238
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	57.5 -105	+170	-200

Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics +5.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 51¢ (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Tennessee to win · +172 at FanDuel

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): DraftKings +180 (1.1%) · Fanatics +175 (0.4%) · FanDuel +172 (0.0%) · Kalshi 36¢ (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (-0.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns -5.5, only $27 available; Over 56.5, only $1 available; Under 56.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI	+7.5	+213
Sagarin	+2.0	+120
Massey	+2.0	+122
Market (11 books)	+5.5	+197

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	61.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Volunteers +5.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Tennessee Volunteers ML	+172	+172	+0.1%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.0.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Kennesaw State +4.5

should be Kennesaw State +4.5 at FanDuel

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →

Market

Arkansas State by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game

FPI

Arkansas State by 31.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Arkansas State by 5.51.1 pts against us

Massey

Arkansas State by 7.53.2 pts against us

Nasty Number

Arkansas State by 4.50 pts off the market

1 of 3 systems lean Kennesaw State. Sagarin at Arkansas State by 5.5 and Massey at Arkansas State by 7.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.71.2 pts over the market

Massey

54.3on the market

Nasty Number

550.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel or Fanatics +4.5 at -110 (0.7%).

Not Nasty

Kennesaw State to win · +163

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): Fanatics +170 (1.8%) · FanDuel +158 (0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas State by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI	-3.0	-135
Sagarin	-5.5	-178
Massey	-7.5	-221
Market (3 books)	-4.5	-186

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	55.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+163	+157	+0.8%
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +4.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Wake Forest +13.5

should be Wake Forest +12.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

FPI

Louisville by 11.51.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisville by 12.50.6 pts our side

Massey

Louisville by 11.51.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisville by 12.50.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Wake Forest. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

47.210.9 pts under the market

Massey

60.22.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.74.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	58.5	—	—

All 11 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	58.5	—	—
Bally Bet	-13.5 -110	58 -112	-625	+450
betPARX	-13.5 -110	58 -112	-625	+450
BetRivers	-13.5 -112	58 -113	-625	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -108	58.5 -108	-623	+487
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	58.5 -110	-650	+470
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	58 -105	-575	+425
FanDuel	-12.5 -110	57.5 -115	-520	+385
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	58.5 -105	-550	+400
ReBet	-13.5 -116	58.5 -109	-575	+360
theScore Bet	-12.5 -110	57.5 -115	-600	+400

Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings or Fanatics +13.5 at -110 (0.1%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

Wake Forest to win · +470 at DraftKings

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings +470 (3.3%) · Fanatics +425 (1.8%) · FanDuel +385 (0.2%).

Off the band

the Under 58.0 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 60. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (1.9%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 52¢ (0.6%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.6%) · Fanatics 58 at -115 (-0.4%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $17 available; Over 58.5, only $50 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $238 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI	-11.5	-329
Sagarin	-12.5	-377
Massey	-11.5	-327
Market (10 books)	-13.5	-530

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML	+470	+381	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 58.0	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia Southern

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Houston by 20, our data says Houston by 19

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 20.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

Houston by 20

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

Houston by 16.5

Sagarin

Houston by 16

Massey

Houston by 14.5

Nasty Number

Houston by 191.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

55.60.8 pts over the market

Massey

53.51.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

54.50.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	+20.5	54.5	—	-1684 94¢

All 9 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	+20.5	54.5	—	-1684 94¢
Bally Bet	+20.5 -110	54.5 -109	+850	-1667
betPARX	+20.5 -110	54.5 -109	+850	-1667
BetRivers	+20.5 -112	54.5 -110	+850	-2000
Courtside	+19.5 -108	55.5 -108	+953	-1467
DraftKings	+19.5 -110	55.5 -110	+900	-1600
Fanatics	+20.5 -110	55 -110	+900	-1500
FanDuel	+20.5 -110	54.5 -110	+860	-1600
ReBet	+20.5 -111	54.5 -119	+630	-1408

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +20.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia Southern): FanDuel or Fanatics +20.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +19.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Blowout line

Georgia Southern to win · +855 at FanDuel

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia Southern to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +900 (1.1%) · FanDuel +860 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-3.0%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (-3.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $11 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $327 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHouston by 1930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	+16.5	+579
Sagarin	+16.0	+542
Massey	+14.5	+459
Market (8 books)	+20.0	+1337

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	54.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +20.0	-110	-105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+855	+801	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 25.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 27

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 24.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 20.5

Massey

Ohio State by 21

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 25.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.40.9 pts under the market

Massey

503.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.22.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois +27.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings or Fanatics +27.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · BetMGM +27 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel +26.5 at -105 (-1.8%).

Blowout line

Illinois to win · +1738

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +2000 (0.0%) · BetMGM +1900 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 25.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-24.5	-1644
Sagarin	-20.5	-957
Massey	-21.0	-1043
Market (10 books)	-27.0	-4011

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5	-110	-107	-0.6%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	+1738	+1978	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says James Madison by 4.5, our data says James Madison by 5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →

Market

James Madison by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game

FPI

James Madison by 8.5

Sagarin

James Madison by 4.5

Massey

James Madison by 7

Nasty Number

James Madison by 50.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.45.1 pts under the market

Massey

54.12.6 pts over the market

Weather

-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off

Nasty Number

49.32.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	James Madison ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 6 books

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	James Madison ML
Bally Bet	+4.5 -110	51.5 -113	+155	-190
betPARX	+4.5 -110	51.5 -113	+155	-190
BetRivers	+4.5 -112	51.5 -114	+155	-195
Fanatics	+4.5 -110	51.5 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+4.5 -110	51.5 -110	+158	-192
ReBet	+4.5 -116	51.5 -114	+157	-214

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel or Fanatics -4.5 at -110 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -191 at Fanatics

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (James Madison to win): Fanatics -190 (-2.7%) · FanDuel -192 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Old Dominion Monarchs +4.5, only $9 available; James Madison Dukes -4.5, only $134 available; Over 51.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI	+8.5	+237
Sagarin	+4.5	+162
Massey	+7.0	+203
Market (6 books)	+4.5	+177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -4.5	-110	+105	-3.7%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-191	-169	-2.8%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Tulane by 18.5, our data says Tulane by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →

Market

Tulane by 18.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game

FPI

Tulane by 15

Sagarin

Tulane by 20.5

Massey

Tulane by 17.5

Nasty Number

Tulane by 180.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.32.2 pts under the market

Massey

48.65.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.44.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	Southern Miss ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1087 91¢	—

All 4 books

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	Southern Miss ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1087 91¢	—
Fanatics	-18.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1450	+810
ReBet	-18.5 -114	—	-1099	+570

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +18.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel or Fanatics +18.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

Blowout line

Southern Miss to win · +810 at FanDuel

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +810 (1.3%) · Fanatics +700 (-0.2%).

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-0.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $325 available; Under 54.5, only $159 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTulane by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI	-15.0	-498
Sagarin	-20.5	-947
Massey	-17.5	-667
Market (3 books)	-18.5	-1014

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+810	+711	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at Kentucky

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45am

No bet

market says Kentucky by 20, our data says Kentucky by 19.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

Kentucky by 20

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game

FPI

Kentucky by 18

Sagarin

Kentucky by 25.5

Massey

Kentucky by 15.5

Nasty Number

Kentucky by 19.50.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.72.7 pts under the market

Massey

53.13.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.43 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	South Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	55.5 -116 52¢	-1236 92¢	—

All 9 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	South Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	55.5 -116 52¢	-1236 92¢	—
Bally Bet	-19.5 -113	57 -108	-1430	+750
betPARX	-19.5 -113	57 -108	-1430	+750
BetRivers	-19.5 -114	57 -109	-1430	+750
DraftKings	-19.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1650	+950
Fanatics	-20.5 -115	56.5 -110	-1300	+800
FanDuel	-19.5 -120	56.5 -105	-1800	+920
Hard Rock Bet	-20.5 -110	55.5 -115	-1200	+750
ReBet	-20.5 -116	56.5 -111	-1408	+620

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +20.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Alabama): Fanatics +20.5 at -105 (0.0%) · FanDuel +19.5 at -102 (-1.2%) · DraftKings +19.5 at -110 (-3.1%).

Blowout line

South Alabama to win · +950 at DraftKings

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): DraftKings +950 (1.2%) · FanDuel +920 (0.9%) · Fanatics +800 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (0.0%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 52¢ (-3.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward South Alabama).

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats -20.5, only $58 available; South Alabama Jaguars +20.5, only $40 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $193 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKentucky by 19.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI	-18.0	-704
Sagarin	-25.5	-1919
Massey	-15.5	-531
Market (8 books)	-20.0	-1206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars +20.5	-105	-105	+0.0%
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	+950	+832	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at Baylor

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Baylor by 7.5, our data says Baylor by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 9. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Baylor →

Market

Baylor by 7.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game

FPI

Baylor by 11

Sagarin

Baylor by 11.5

Massey

Baylor by 6

Nasty Number

Baylor by 91.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Baylor by 6.5 to Baylor by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

56.53.8 pts over the market

Massey

51.21.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.81.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	—	-306 74¢	—

All 9 books

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	—	-306 74¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -114	52.5 -110	-265	+195
betPARX	-6.5 -114	52.5 -110	-265	+195
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	52.5 -112	-265	+195
Courtside	-8.5 -108	53.5 -108	-283	+241
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	53.5 -110	-290	+235
Fanatics	-7.5 -105	52.5 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-7.5 -110	52.5 -108	-300	+240
ReBet	-7.5 -111	52.5 -114	-319	+226

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Baylor -7.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Baylor): Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -110 (-4.5%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-4.8%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -110 (-6.4%).

Not Nasty

Baylor to win · -285 at Fanatics

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Baylor to win): Fanatics -285 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -290 (-3.1%) · FanDuel -300 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -110 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $21 available; Under 53.5, only $159 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $198 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBaylor by 940% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI	-11.0	-313
Sagarin	-11.5	-327
Massey	-6.0	-181
Market (8 books)	-7.5	-255

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baylor Bears -7.5	-105	+109	-3.3%
Moneyline	Baylor Bears ML	-285	-248	-2.8%
Total	Over 53.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Michigan by 4.5, our data says Michigan by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

FPI

Michigan by 5

Sagarin

Michigan by 6.5

Massey

Michigan by 4

Nasty Number

Michigan by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

39.92 pts over the market

Massey

38.40.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

39.11.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	38.5 -112 51¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢

All 12 books

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	38.5 -112 51¢	-191 64¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
betPARX	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
BetRivers	-4.5 -112	37.5 -113	-210	+163
Courtside	-4.5 -108	37.5 -108	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	37.5 -110	-192	+160
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	37.5 -115	-200	+165
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	38.5 -110	-200	+164
Fliff	-4.5 -115	38.5 -115	-205	+160
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -110	38.5 -105	-240	+185
ReBet	-4.5 -114	38.5 -109	-244	+178
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	38.5 -110	-195	+165

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics -4.5 at -110 (-5.1%).

Not Nasty

Michigan to win · -191 (64¢) at Kalshi

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Michigan to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -191 (-4.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -200 (-5.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 38.0 · -110

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 37.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 37.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 38.5 at -110 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 38.5 at 51¢ (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Iowa).

Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $86 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5, only $52 available; Under 38.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI	-5.0	-166
Sagarin	-6.5	-196
Massey	-4.0	-147
Market (11 books)	-4.5	-188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.0	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines -4.5	-110	+111	-5.1%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	-191	-160	-4.2%
Total	Over 38.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-18 14:31.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says New Mexico by 13.5, our data says New Mexico by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 13.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore New Mexico State →

Market

New Mexico by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico's last game

FPI

New Mexico by 15.5

Sagarin

New Mexico by 11

Massey

New Mexico by 11

Nasty Number

New Mexico by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

50.7on the market

Massey

55.34.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

532.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico State +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (New Mexico State): FanDuel or Fanatics +13.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

New Mexico State to win · +440 at FanDuel

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): FanDuel +440 (1.0%) · Fanatics +410 (-0.1%).

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI	+15.5	+508
Sagarin	+11.0	+311
Massey	+11.0	+319
Market (6 books)	+13.5	+508

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico State Aggies +13.5	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies ML	+440	+412	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at Purdue

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Notre Dame by 28, our data says Notre Dame by 27

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Notre Dame by 28

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 26

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 17

Massey

Notre Dame by 25

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 270.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

552.2 pts under the market

Massey

57.60.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.30.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	56.5	+1775 5¢	-2580 96¢

All 11 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	56.5	+1775 5¢	-2580 96¢
Bally Bet	+27.5 -109	57.5 -112	+1500	—
betPARX	+27.5 -109	57.5 -112	+1500	—
BetRivers	+27.5 -110	57.5 -113	+1400	—
Courtside	+27.5 -103	56.5 -113	+2246	—
DraftKings	+27.5 -105	56.5 -115	+2000	—
Fanatics	+28 -115	57.5 -110	+2000	—
FanDuel	+27.5 -106	57.5 -110	+1600	—
Hard Rock Bet	+28.5 -115	57.5 -110	+1300	—
ReBet	+28.5 -119	57.5 -114	+1025	—
theScore Bet	+27.5 -105	56.5 -110	+1500	—

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +28.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Purdue): Fanatics +28 at -115 (-2.9%) · DraftKings +27.5 at -105 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +27.5 at -106 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Purdue to win · +2000 at DraftKings

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Purdue to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +2000 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 5¢ (-1.4%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.9%).

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-3.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 2730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI	+26.0	+2132
Sagarin	+17.0	+639
Massey	+25.0	+1756
Market (10 books)	+28.0	+3763

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +28.0	-110	-102	-1.8%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+2000	+2432	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas Tech

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 57

should be 55.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 55.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 37.5.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →

Market

Texas Tech by 37.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game

FPI

Texas Tech by 27

Sagarin

Texas Tech by 32

Massey

Texas Tech by 35

Nasty Number

Texas Tech by 361.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

52.24.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.16.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.25.7 pts under the market

Under 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Texas Tech spread	Total (over)	Texas Tech ML	Sam Houston ML
Kalshi	—	54.5 -116 52¢	—	—

All 6 books

	Texas Tech spread	Total (over)	Texas Tech ML	Sam Houston ML
Kalshi	—	54.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-37.5 -109	57.5 -109	—	—
betPARX	-37.5 -109	57.5 -109	—	—
BetRivers	-37.5 -110	57.5 -110	—	—
Fanatics	-37.5 -110	56.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-37.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—

Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +37.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Sam Houston): FanDuel or Fanatics +37.5 at -110 (0.7%).

Blowout line

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 5.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (-6.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston).

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 3621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI	-27.0	-2379
Sagarin	-32.0	—
Massey	-35.0	—
Market (5 books)	-37.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +37.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.4.

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

No bet

market says Nebraska by 4.5, our data says Nebraska by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Nebraska by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game

FPI

Nebraska by 7.5

Sagarin

Nebraska by 0.5

Massey

Nebraska by 3

Nasty Number

Nebraska by 4.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 5.5 to Nebraska by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.13.8 pts over the market

Massey

51.53.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.83.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Nebraska -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): DraftKings or Fanatics -4.5 at -110 (-4.9%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -112 (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Nebraska to win · -195 at Fanatics

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): DraftKings or FanDuel -192 (-4.1%) · Fanatics -195 (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Michigan State).

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI	+7.5	+221
Sagarin	+0.5	+107
Massey	+3.0	+133
Market (10 books)	+4.5	+181

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nebraska Cornhuskers -4.5	-110	+111	-4.9%
Moneyline	Nebraska Cornhuskers ML	-195	-161	-4.5%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.2.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

No bet

market says Penn State by 9.5, our data says Penn State by 11

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 9.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 15.5

Sagarin

Penn State by 10

Massey

Penn State by 17

Nasty Number

Penn State by 111.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Penn State by 11.5 to Penn State by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

SP+ pace

38.16.4 pts under the market

Massey

41.62.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.94.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Penn State -9.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings -9.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Fanatics -10 at -105 (-2.6%) · BetMGM -10 at -108 (-3.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -122 (-4.5%).

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -410 at FanDuel

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Penn State to win): FanDuel -410 (-4.9%) · Fanatics -425 (-5.4%) · BetMGM -450 (-6.3%) · DraftKings -500 (-7.8%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 44.5 at -108 (0.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 1121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI	-15.5	-527
Sagarin	-10.0	-274
Massey	-17.0	-621
Market (11 books)	-9.5	-399

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5	-110	-102	-2.0%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-410	-308	priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pm

No bet

market says Virginia by 20.5, our data says Virginia by 20

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 20.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 15.5

Sagarin

Virginia by 22

Massey

Virginia by 26

Nasty Number

Virginia by 200.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.43.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.71 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.62.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Delaware ML
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	-1429 93¢	—

All 9 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Delaware ML
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	-1429 93¢	—
Bally Bet	-20.5 -108	54.5 -110	-2000	+900
betPARX	-20.5 -108	54.5 -110	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-20.5 -109	54.5 -112	-2000	+850
Courtside	-20.5 -108	54.5 -108	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-20.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1450	+850
Fanatics	-20.5 -110	55 -110	-1400	+850
FanDuel	-20.5 -110	55.5 -110	-1700	+890
ReBet	-20.5 -125	54.5 -119	-1493	+650

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Delaware): FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +20.5 at -110 (-3.3%).

Blowout line

Delaware to win · +870

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Delaware to win): FanDuel +890 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +850 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $52 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 2021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI	-15.5	-515
Sagarin	-22.0	-1163
Massey	-26.0	-2106
Market (8 books)	-20.5	-1361

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens +20.5	-110	+104	-3.3%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	+870	+923	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pm

Under 54

should be 51 · getting 3.2 pts

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →

Market

Miami by 42

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game

FPI

Miami by 42

Sagarin

Miami by 40.5

Massey

Miami by 38.5

Nasty Number

Miami by 41.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

41.412.8 pts under the market

Massey

47.66.7 pts under the market

Weather

-1.076% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

43.510.8 pts under the market

Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 10.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Central Michigan ML
Kalshi	—	54.5 -112 51¢	—	—

All 9 books

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Central Michigan ML
Kalshi	—	54.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-41.5 -114	54.5 -112	—	—
betPARX	-41.5 -114	54.5 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-41.5 -115	54.5 -113	—	—
Courtside	-42.5 -108	54.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-42.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Fanatics	-42.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-41.5 -115	53.5 -115	—	—
theScore Bet	-41.5 -115	53.5 -115	—	—

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +42.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Michigan): DraftKings or Fanatics +42.5 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel +41.5 at -105 (-1.0%).

Blowout line

the Under 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.8 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (6.2%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (5.0%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (4.9%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 41.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI	-42.0	—
Sagarin	-40.5	—
Massey	-38.5	—
Market (8 books)	-42.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	43.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5	-110	-112	+0.4%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-136	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 11.5, our data says Alabama by 12

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 12.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 12

Massey

Alabama by 13

Nasty Number

Alabama by 120.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

41.311.8 pts under the market

Massey

51.41.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.46.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 6.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	-11.5 -121 53¢	—	-490 82¢	+373 20¢

All 12 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	-11.5 -121 53¢	—	-490 82¢	+373 20¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -112	53.5 -110	-530	+390
betPARX	-11.5 -112	53.5 -110	-530	+390
BetRivers	-11.5 -113	53.5 -112	-530	+370
Courtside	-11.5 -108	52.5 -108	-440	+360
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	52.5 -110	-455	+350
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	52.5 -110	-475	+360
FanDuel	-12.5 -110	55.5 -110	-520	+385
Fliff	-11.5 -120	52.5 -115	-525	+375
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	51.5 -120	-475	+350
ReBet	-11.5 -114	51.5 -125	-526	+330
theScore Bet	-12.5 -110	55.5 -110	-600	+400

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -11.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings or Fanatics -11.5 at -110 (-4.3%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-5.6%) · Kalshi -11.5 at 53¢ (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -455 (-4.3%) · Fanatics -475 (-4.9%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-5.4%) · FanDuel -520 (-6.2%).

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (8.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (1.1%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $196 available; Over 53.5, only $6 available; Under 53.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI	-12.5	-372
Sagarin	-12.0	-346
Massey	-13.0	-388
Market (11 books)	-11.5	-453

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5	-110	+108	-4.3%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-455	-348	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says NC State by 13.5, our data says NC State by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →

Market

NC State by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game

FPI

NC State by 9

Sagarin

NC State by 20.5

Massey

NC State by 15.5

Nasty Number

NC State by 13.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from NC State by 12.5 to NC State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

561.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.82.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

App State +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (App State): Fanatics +14 at -115 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

App State to win · +410 at Fanatics

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (App State to win): FanDuel +420 (0.4%) · Fanatics +410 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -13.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward NC State).

Full detail

We settle onNC State by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI	-9.0	-258
Sagarin	-20.5	-981
Massey	-15.5	-533
Market (3 books)	-13.5	-514

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Appalachian State Mountaineers +13.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Appalachian State Mountaineers ML	+410	+410	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Utah State by 2.5, our data says Utah State by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →

Market

Utah State by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game

FPI

Troy by 0.5

Sagarin

Utah State by 3.5

Massey

Utah State by 7

Nasty Number

Utah State by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.80.7 pts under the market

Massey

52.31.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

Troy +2.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Troy): FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-2.0%) · Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

Troy to win · +112

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Troy to win): FanDuel +116 (-2.0%) · Fanatics +110 (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail

We settle onUtah State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI	+0.5	+106
Sagarin	-3.5	-140
Massey	-7.0	-207
Market (4 books)	-2.5	-125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Troy Trojans +2.5	-104	+104	-2.0%
Moneyline	Troy Trojans ML	+112	+126	-2.8%
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pm

No bet

market says Mississippi State by 3.5, our data says Mississippi State by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →

Market

Mississippi State by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game

FPI

Mississippi State by 6

Sagarin

Mississippi State by 6

Massey

a pick'em

Nasty Number

Mississippi State by 40.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

54.23.8 pts under the market

Massey

56.11.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

55.12.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	-3.5	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+146 39¢

All 10 books

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	-3.5	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -107	58.5 -108	-165	+135
betPARX	-3.5 -107	58.5 -108	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3.5 -108	58.5 -109	-167	+133
Courtside	-3.5 -108	57.5 -108	-176	+153
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	57.5 -110	-180	+150
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	58 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	58.5 -110	-178	+146
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	57.5 -115	-180	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -116	57.5 -119	-191	+142

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State -3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State): DraftKings -3.5 at -110 (-4.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -3.5 at -115 (-5.3%).

Not Nasty

Mississippi State to win · -178 at FanDuel

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win): FanDuel -178 (-4.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -180 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 58.0 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5, only $288 available; Under 58.5, only $159 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMississippi State by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI	-6.0	-180
Sagarin	-6.0	-183
Massey	PK	+102
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-160

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	55.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5	-110	+107	-4.1%
Moneyline	Mississippi State Bulldogs ML	-178	-150	-4.1%
Total	Under 58.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm

Under 59

should be 58.2 · getting 1.1 pts

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 34.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game

FPI

SMU by 28

Sagarin

SMU by 33.5

Massey

SMU by 29

Nasty Number

SMU by 331.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

51.57.7 pts under the market

Massey

56.72.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

54.15.1 pts under the market

Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

Missouri State +34.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): Fanatics +34.5 at -105 (0.7%) · FanDuel +34.5 at -110 (-0.4%).

Blowout line

Missouri State to win · +4236 at Fanatics

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): Fanatics +4500 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +4000 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 59.0 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. That's 5.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 59 at -105 (0.9%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -115 (-0.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 3321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI	-28.0	-2727
Sagarin	-33.5	—
Massey	-29.0	-3184
Market (4 books)	-34.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	54.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri State Bears +34.5	-105	-108	+0.7%
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+4236	+6468	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm

No bet

market says Oregon State by 12.5, our data says Oregon State by 12.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Oregon State by 12.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game

FPI

Oregon State by 14

Sagarin

Oregon State by 8.5

Massey

Oregon State by 11.5

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 12.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.411.1 pts under the market

Massey

53.62.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.57 pts under the market

Under 56.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Oregon State -12.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): FanDuel -11.5 at -115 (-3.7%) · Fanatics -12.5 at -110 (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon State to win · -550 at FanDuel

We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): Fanatics -525 (-5.1%) · FanDuel -550 (-5.8%).

Off the band

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (4.7%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 79°F, 24% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +11.0, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Oregon State).

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 12.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI	+14.0	+432
Sagarin	+8.5	+238
Massey	+11.5	+329
Market (3 books)	+12.5	+485

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers -12.5	-110	+106	-3.9%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	-550	-373	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-133	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pm

No bet

market says Fresno State by 13, our data says Fresno State by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Fresno State by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game

FPI

Fresno State by 15

Sagarin

Fresno State by 14.5

Massey

Fresno State by 15

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 13.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

SP+ pace

40.24.3 pts under the market

Massey

44.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.52 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

Fresno State -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -13 at -110 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · -550 at FanDuel

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics -525 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -550 (-3.6%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI	-15.0	-501
Sagarin	-14.5	-456
Massey	-15.0	-503
Market (4 books)	-13.0	-487

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	-550	-425	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pm

No bet

market says Georgia Tech by 5, our data says Georgia Tech by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →

Market

Georgia Tech by 5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game

FPI

Georgia Tech by 8

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 5

Massey

Georgia Tech by 7

Nasty Number

Georgia Tech by 5.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.6on the market

Massey

54.27.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.43.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
Kalshi	—	47.5	—	—

All 4 books

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
Kalshi	—	47.5	—	—
Fanatics	+4.5 -110	46.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	46.5 -110	+160	-194
ReBet	+4.5 -114	46.5 -114	+167	-228

Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -5.0 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): Fanatics -4.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · -194 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -194 (-2.2%) · Fanatics -205 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Fanatics 46.5 at -110 (0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Stanford).

Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +5.5, only $14 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $452 available; Over 47.5, only $491 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Tech by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI	+8.0	+223
Sagarin	+5.0	+165
Massey	+7.0	+201
Market (3 books)	+5.0	+189

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0	-110	+105	-3.5%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	-194	-176	-2.2%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sun Sep 27

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 3

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 1.5

FPI

Panthers by 2

Sagarin

Panthers by 1

Massey

Browns by 2.5

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5

The Four

Massey

46.26.4 pts over the market

FPI

400.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.13.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-161 60¢

All 10 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-161 60¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
betPARX	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetRivers	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
Caesars	—	40.5 +100	+125	-148
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	40.5 -110	+120	-142
FanDuel	+3 -112	39.5 -105	+130	-154
Fliff	+2.5 +100	39.5 -115	+125	-155
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	39.5 -110	+120	-154
ReBet	+2.5 +100	39.5 -110	+123	-151

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): FanDuel +3 at -112 (-0.8%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +130 at FanDuel

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +130 (-1.1%) · Caesars +125 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +120 (-3.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 40.5 at +100 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -110 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+120
FPI	+2.0	+128
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (9 books)	+3.0	+137

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+130	+136	-1.1%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 0.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Steelers by 2

Nasty Number

Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.52.7 pts over the market

FPI

44.41.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.50.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢

All 10 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
betPARX	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
Caesars	+2.5 -110	45.5 -115	+112	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -114	46.5 -105	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -110	45.5 -115	+110	-135
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-138
ReBet	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +113

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Steelers to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +110 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -105 (-2.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+103
FPI	+1.0	+113
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+123

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+113	+128	-3.0%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

Texans by 1.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2

Massey

Texans by 1

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

51.16.3 pts over the market

FPI

43.81 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-148 58¢

All 10 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
betPARX	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
Caesars	+2.5 -106	45.5 -103	+119	-141
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+122	-144
Fliff	+2.5 -105	44.5 -115	+115	-145
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	45 -110	+114	-146
ReBet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -120	+116	-142

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-3.1%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +118 (44¢) at Kalshi

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Colts to win): FanDuel +122 (-2.1%) · Caesars or Kalshi +119 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +114 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+127
FPI	+1.5	+123
Sagarin	+2.0	+125
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+130

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +2.5	-105	+107	-2.9%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+118	+133	-2.9%
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 4

Sagarin

Jaguars by 1.5

Massey

Jaguars by 2.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

43.72.1 pts under the market

FPI

45.10.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.41.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	+105 47¢

All 10 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
betPARX	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
Caesars	—	45.5 -114	-132	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	46.5 -105	-132	+112
Fliff	-2.5 -110	45.5 -115	-135	+110
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-137	+107
ReBet	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-134	+110

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.9%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-5.4%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings +114 (-3.6%) · Caesars or FanDuel +112 (-4.0%) · Kalshi 47¢ (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.

New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-114
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-1.5	-122
Massey	-2.5	-142
Market (9 books)	-2.5	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +2.5	-110	+106	-3.9%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+110	+132	-4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 8.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10

Sagarin

Chiefs by 10.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

43.21.3 pts under the market

FPI

43.11.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.21.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-524 83¢

All 10 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-524 83¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
betPARX	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetRivers	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
Caesars	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-480
DraftKings	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+350	-455
FanDuel	+8.5 -105	44.5 -110	+430	-590
Fliff	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+380	-585
MyBookie.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-549
ReBet	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+380	-526

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-6.7%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-7.9%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -484 at Caesars

We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -455 (-7.5%) · Caesars -480 (-8.3%) · Kalshi 83¢ (-9.5%) · FanDuel -590 (-11.0%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+8.5	+294
FPI	+10.0	+341
Sagarin	+10.5	+369
Massey	+4.0	+161
Market (9 books)	+8.5	+455

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -8.5	-110	+119	-6.7%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-484	-292	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 6

FPI

Giants by 7.5

Sagarin

Giants by 5.5

Massey

Giants by 5.5

Nasty Number

Giants by 5.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

45.62.7 pts over the market

FPI

44.21.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.92 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢

All 10 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢
Bally Bet	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
betPARX	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetRivers	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
Caesars	—	43.5 -103	-265	+215
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	43.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	42.5 -110	-275	+225
Fliff	-5.5 -120	42.5 -115	-285	+205
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	42.5 -110	-270	+202
ReBet	-5.5 -120	42.5 -120	-260	+206

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings -5.5 at -110 (-3.8%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-6.0%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -250 at DraftKings

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -250 (-4.7%) · Caesars -265 (-5.9%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -275 (-6.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 43.0 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 42.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars 43.5 at -103 (-1.3%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-2.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-204
FPI	-7.5	-245
Sagarin	-5.5	-200
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (9 books)	-5.5	-245

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	44.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -5.5	-110	+106	-3.8%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-250	-201	-4.7%
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1

FPI

Commanders by 6.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1

Massey

Seahawks by 3

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5

The Four

Massey

45.74 pts over the market

FPI

38.33.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

420.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+114 45¢	-136 56¢

All 9 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
betPARX	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
Caesars	+2.5 -108	—	+112	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+114	-135
Fliff	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+110	-135
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+110	-140
ReBet	+2.5 -109	41.5 -110	+112	-137

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Commanders): Caesars +2.5 at -108 (-3.2%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +112 at Caesars

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Commanders to win): DraftKings or Kalshi +114 (-3.3%) · Caesars +112 (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 41.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (-1.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.

Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+153
FPI	-6.5	-171
Sagarin	+1.0	+148
Massey	+3.0	+192
Market (8 books)	+2.5	+124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington Commanders +2.5	-110	+105	-3.6%
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+112	+130	-3.8%
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 10

FPI

49ers by 11

Sagarin

49ers by 12.5

Massey

49ers by 6.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 90.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

470.9 pts under the market

FPI

491.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-490 82¢	—

All 10 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-490 82¢	—
Bally Bet	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
betPARX	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetRivers	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
Caesars	-8.5 -110	47.5 -117	-500	+375
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	47.5 -110	-455	+350
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	48.5 -110	-550	+410
Fliff	-8.5 -115	48.5 -105	-545	+360
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-461	+320
ReBet	-9.5 -110	48.5 -109	-450	+330

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (49ers): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-6.4%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings -455 (-6.4%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-7.5%) · Caesars -500 (-7.8%) · FanDuel -550 (-9.0%).

Off the band

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Caesars 47.5 at -117 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-4.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).

San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-332
FPI	-11.0	-380
Sagarin	-12.5	-472
Massey	-6.5	-219
Market (9 books)	-8.5	-441

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.5	-110	+112	-5.3%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-455	-310	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.0	-110	+101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 57 in 100 · -116

A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 53.7 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 5.54.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 31.5 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 10.5 pts against us

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 2.50.8 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Massey at Buccaneers by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.72.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.95.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.31.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	—

All 10 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	—
Bally Bet	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
betPARX	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetRivers	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
Caesars	-1.5 -110	45.5 -114	-120	+101
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	45.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	46.5 -110	-116	-102
Fliff	-1.5 -110	46.5 -110	-125	+100
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	46 -110	-126	-101
ReBet	-1.5 -110	45.5 -120	-123	+101

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -1.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel -1.5 at -105 (2.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -1.5 at -110 (1.7%).

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel

We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 54. That's value. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel -116 (3.1%) · Caesars -120 (2.3%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -125 (1.3%).

A Little Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-139
FPI	-5.5	-147
Sagarin	-3.0	-106
Massey	-1.0	+120
Market (9 books)	-1.5	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5	-105	-118	+2.9%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	-116	-132	+3.1%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral

No bet

market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 4

FPI

Ravens by 3

Sagarin

Ravens by 3

Massey

Ravens by 6

Nasty Number

Ravens by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

Massey

541.5 pts over the market

FPI

51.31.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.6on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	+140 40¢	-167 61¢

All 9 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
betPARX	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetRivers	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
Caesars	—	52.5 -109	+139	-164
DraftKings	+3 -105	52.5 -110	+140	-166
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -105	+148	-176
Fliff	+3.5 -125	52.5 -110	+135	-170
ReBet	+3.5 -133	52.5 -110	+128	-157

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -115 (-3.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.7%).

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -159

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Ravens to win): Caesars -164 (-2.3%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -166 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -176 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars 52.5 at -109 (-2.1%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.0	+163
FPI	+3.0	+140
Sagarin	+3.0	+146
Massey	+6.0	+214
Market (8 books)	+3.0	+150

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-159	-149	-1.6%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 4

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.83.4 pts under the market

FPI

40.94.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.43.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	+134 41¢

All 10 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
betPARX	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetRivers	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
Caesars	-3 -114	45.5 -105	-164	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-3 -115	44.5 -115	-174	+146
Fliff	-3.5 +100	44.5 -115	-175	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	45 -110	-172	+134
ReBet	-3.5 -105	45.5 -109	-168	+137

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (-3.1%) · FanDuel -3 at -115 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -163 at Caesars

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Saints to win): DraftKings -162 (-2.3%) · Caesars -164 (-2.6%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -174 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -105 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.5	-169
Sagarin	-4.0	-158
Massey	-3.0	-147
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-163	-147	-2.5%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pm

No bet

market says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Rams by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 2

FPI

Rams by 2.5

Sagarin

Rams by 2

Massey

Rams by 1

Nasty Number

Rams by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5

The Four

Massey

44.42 pts under the market

FPI

41.94.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.23.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-143 57¢

All 10 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
betPARX	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetRivers	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
Caesars	+2.5 -110	46.5 -105	+114	-134
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -112	46.5 -105	+112	-132
Fliff	+2.5 -115	46.5 -105	+110	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-137
ReBet	+2.5 -110	46.5 -109	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Broncos to win): DraftKings or Caesars +114 (-3.9%) · FanDuel +112 (-4.3%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.5 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+122
FPI	+2.5	+130
Sagarin	+2.0	+126
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +2.5	-110	+107	-4.2%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+110	+133	-4.7%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 2-3, -1.2u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.9 pts vs the close on 5 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-3-1.22 units · -24% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.9 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 6 posted picks

Open1call waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

0-2 · -2.00 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-1 · +0.82 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-4 · -2.11 units

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nastiest	0-1	0.0%	-1.0 u	small sample
Nasty Pick	2-2	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	2-2	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	14-16	46.7%	-3.2 u
Not Nasty	127 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 10:31.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 69 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	7.70	54
FPI	9.83	109
SP+	10.01	109
The market	10.19	160
Sagarin	11.75	150

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.13	55
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.02	54
SP+	1.00	0.50	0.01	55
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.08	69

The line archive, 160 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 59, and sat still 26. Our side taken at the open finished 0.47 points better than the close on average over 150 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.35, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.28, Kalshi 9.67, MyBookie.ag 9.80.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-3, +0.70 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 2.

NFL

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.13	17
nfelo	11.26	17
Sagarin	11.73	17

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 42 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 8 times, against it 10, average -0.03 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 7.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.55Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 71%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 42 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 8 of 42 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 7. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cleveland +9	9	9	+0.0	flipped
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers	Las Vegas +7	7	7	+0.0	flipped
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears	Minnesota +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	same side
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans +9	9	9	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +7	7	7	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Over	41	41	+0.0	flipped
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys	Over	50.5	50.5	+0.0	same side
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams	New York +7	7	7	+0.0	same side
App State at NC State	Appalachian State +13.5	13.5	13.7	-0.2	no call
James Madison at Old Dominion	James Madison -3	-3	-4.5	+1.5	no call
Wisconsin at Penn State	Penn State Nittany -10.6	-10.6	-9.6	-1.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 111 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	60	14.7	18-25 (42%)	12-13 (48%)
Massey	64	13.7	14-16 (47%)	5-10 (33%)
The blend	65	14.0	14-21 (40%)	9-9 (50%)

NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	3	6.1	3-0 (100%)	—
FPI	1	18.6	—	—
The blend	3	6.7	2-0 (100%)	—

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

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For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

73 priced · 28 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit: 3 problems

The audit found 3 problems at Sun 11:33am. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. posted call not graded: Virginia at West Virginia, played Sat Sep 19 posted call not graded: Kansas at Arizona State, played Sat Sep 19 bet not graded: Virginia at West Virginia, played Sat Sep 19

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 86 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

What's changed since 11:28am

MovedPhiladelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans price moved from -102 to -105.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 3.8Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineersagainst the public
→ 3.4Oregon Ducks at USC Trojanstoward Oregon Ducksagainst the public
→ 2.0Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
→ 1.9Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lionstoward Wisconsin Badgersagainst the public
→ 1.7TCU Horned Frogs at UCF Knightstoward TCU Horned Frogswith the public
→ 1.7James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchstoward James Madison Dukeswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

9.21Points off per game at that weight

9.21The market on its own

69Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 69 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	54	7.70
FPI	111	9.85
SP+	109	10.01
The market	177	10.28
Sagarin	167	11.75

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	80-85	48%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 819235 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.19 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	104	1.62
LowVig.ag	204	1.44
BetOnline.ag	210	1.44
DraftKings	236	1.44
FanDuel	287	1.31
BetRivers	252	1.26
BetMGM	200	1.24
Bovada	199	1.22
Caesars	186	1.21
Pinnacle	198	1.14
BetUS	156	1.14
MyBookie.ag	159	1.12
TOM	191	1.12
Fanatics	190	1.06
ReBet	58	0.56
betPARX	30	0.50
Bally Bet	31	0.48
Hard Rock Bet	39	0.45
theScore Bet	32	0.27
Fliff	26	0.08

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
nfelo updated 4 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 20

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.