Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
UCF at Oklahoma StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsUCF +11-110 at Fanatics+7.4%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +8.5 -110. Now UCF +11 -110, 2.5 points better. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1.5 pts+9.5 open Sunnow +11Nasty Number +7Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 2 ptsIowa +3.5-115 at DraftKings+3.9%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +140. Now Iowa to win +145. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts+1.5 open Thunow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5New Mexico State at Florida International▲Moved our way · 1.5 ptsNew Mexico State +7-112 at Caesars+3.6%Wed 6:30pm Buck's case ›All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1.5 pts+5.5 open Sunnow +7Nasty Number +5San Diego State at Oregon StateSan Diego State +14.5-105 at FanDuel+3.2%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Wed 7:49am. Still on the board: FanDuel at -105. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+14.5 open Sunnow +14.5Nasty Number +13Texas A&M at Missouri▼Texas A&M +3.5-108 at TOM+3.1%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+4 open Sunnow +3.5Nasty Number +3North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amStill a playSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
6 Nasty Picks on the counter this week: UCF +11, Iowa +3.5, New Mexico State +7, San Diego State +14.5, Texas A&M +3.5 and UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
South Carolina at Florida, South Carolina +13.5. Every system has Florida by 8; the market has Florida by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.5.
Texans at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Texans by 4; the market has Texans by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 50 (South Florida at UTSA) at 5.4% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is South Florida at UTSA, Over 50, down 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Texas A&M at Missouri slipped to A Little Nasty; Wake Forest at NC State slipped to A Little Nasty; UAB at Memphis climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: UCF at Oklahoma State, UCF +11. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 2 ptsIowa to win+145 at Fanatics+4.8%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 2 ptsIowa to win +140 at DraftKingsNasty Dog · called Tue 11:53amStill a playFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Iowa to win · +145 at Fanatics, 5 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday.Damn Near Nasty
4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
4 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -118 (1.6%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (1.1%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at -12.5 for -115 at Fanatics · 1 point away
Where, best first (Memphis): Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (2.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -14 at -108 (1.7%) · FanDuel -14.5 at +100 (1.5%) · TOM -14 at -112 (0.8%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 49¢ (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +7.5 at -112 (1.3%) · TOM +7.5 at -113 (1.0%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 52¢ (0.4%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -112 (-1.0%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: South Florida at UTSA, Over 50. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 49.5 at -112 (6.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (5.4%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -115 (5.4%) · Caesars 50 at -112 (5.0%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (4.9%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): BetMGM +3 at -110 (1.2%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +102 (0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +3 at -115 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.12 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 46 at -112 (1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-0.9%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (3.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): TOM -2 at -112 (2.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 51¢ (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): TOM +7 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (0.7%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +6.5 at -105 (-0.5%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (California): Kalshi +9.5 at 48¢ (1.8%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +10 at -110 (1.2%) · TOM +9 at +100 (1.2%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (0.4%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (-0.7%).Points or price: +10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +9.5 (the games that land on 10); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 42 at -115 (1.1%) · Caesars 42.5 at -108 (1.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Fanatics or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Michigan): BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.7%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (1.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -13.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings -7.5 at -102 (0.9%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -105 (0.2%) · TOM -7.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (1.8%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (1.1%) · TOM 51 at -115 (0.9%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 48¢ (0.7%) · Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (0.6%).Points or price: 51 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 51.5 (the games that land on 51); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -120 (0.6%) · DraftKings -7.5 at -105 (0.5%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-1.0%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 57.5 at +105 (1.6%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (-3.3%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -105 (-3.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (-4.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 50 at -115 (-2.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi 49.5 at -115 (-3.7%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-4.2%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-4.7%).Moved closer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UAB at Memphis Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from -14.0 to -13.5; the price from -112 to -115. - Sacramento State at Bowling Green Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Indiana at Nebraska Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Virginia Tech at California Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to +100; the market drifted 0.9 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Ole Miss at Vanderbilt Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +10.5 to +9.5; the price from -122 to -103. - Air Force at Northern Illinois Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Bengals at Dolphins Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -113 to -102; the Nasty Number moved 0.6. - Sam Houston at Liberty tomorrow 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Sam Houston +14.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -13.5 to +13.5; the price from -108 to -105.
And 3 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
2 gamesBest: New Mexico State +7.0, Nasty PickNew Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB 6:30pmNew Mexico State +7Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be New Mexico State +5 · getting 2 pts · -112 at Caesars · was +4.5▲Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take New Mexico State +7.0 at -112 at Caesars. Market says Florida International by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -6.5 -111 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | -238 | +204 |
All 22 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -111 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -109 | -275 | +215 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -104 | 45.5 -113 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -109 | -275 | +215 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -278 | +215 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -7 -108 | 45.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -239 | +205 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -245 | +200 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -255 | +205 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -120 | -260 | +200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -105 | 45.5 -112 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -250 | +198 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | -238 | +204 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 45.5 | -233 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 46 -114 | -250 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F, 48% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · New Mexico State.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $211 available; New Mexico State Aggies ML, only $101 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -119 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (20 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +7.0 | -112 | -130 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +205 | +189 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 5.0.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB 6:00pmKennesaw State +3should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3 -115 | 50 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +132 | -150 |
All 22 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 50 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +120 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 49 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 49 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 48.5 -120 | +126 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +102 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -109 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49 -110 | +126 | -155 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +132 | -150 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +113 | 49.5 +108 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +3 -116 | 49 -111 | +126 | -155 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +140 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -169 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +128 | +122 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +3.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 48.6 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +140 consensus.
Tomorrow
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, South Florida at UTSASouth Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB tomorrow 6:30pmOver 50Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 53 · getting 3 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6, but at -108 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +101 | 50.5 -101 | -287 | +235 |
All 22 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | -250 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -275 | +226 |
| betPARX | -7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | -250 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 49.5 -113 | -250 | +195 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -275 | +230 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50 -112 | -280 | +225 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 50.5 -109 | -271 | +230 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -278 | +225 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -106 | -280 | +225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 50 -108 | -275 | +226 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -300 | +234 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +101 | 50.5 -101 | -287 | +235 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +108 | 49.5 | -257 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 49.5 -119 | -310 | +238 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls +7.5, only $67 available; Over 49.5, only $37 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has UTSA -6.5 while Pinnacle is at UTSA by 7.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +7.0 | -108 | -120 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +220 | +203 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.5.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmWestern Kentucky to winour data says 57 in 100 · -130Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 2 to Western Kentucky by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -105 | 56.5 -106 | -128 | +111 |
All 22 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -107 | -134 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -107 | -134 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -136 | +108 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -134 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -114 | -130 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -105 | 56.5 -106 | -128 | +111 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 +100 | 55.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | -136 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 +100 | 56.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky to win · -130 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky).
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $25 available; Under 56.5, only $430 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -183 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -130 | -134 | +0.7% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5 | -111 | -110 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 52.5 -108 | -588 | +426 |
All 22 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -113 | 51.5 -115 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -13 -113 | 51.5 -115 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13 -114 | 51.5 -117 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -14 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +410 |
| Pinnacle | -14 +101 | 52.5 -108 | -588 | +426 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +108 | -525 | +488 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -599 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $215 available; Under 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -450 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -361 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +456 | +441 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Liberty played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmArkansas State -1.5should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 60 -107 | -118 | +103 |
All 22 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -109 | 58.5 -114 | -114 | -107 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| betPARX | -1 -109 | 58.5 -114 | -114 | -107 |
| BetRivers | -1 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -115 | -108 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 60.5 -105 | -117 | -102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 59.5 -119 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 60.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -114 | 59.5 -112 | -126 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -115 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 60.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -122 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 60 -107 | -118 | +103 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 59.5 -108 | -113 | +108 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 59.5 -114 | -121 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +106 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +104 | +110 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -115 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 58.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL tomorrow 7:15pmCowboys -8should be Cowboys -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 8, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Cowboys by 10 to Cowboys by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -8 -103 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8 -102 | 47.5 -109 | -444 | +352 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -103 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -8 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -495 | +385 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +344 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetUS | -9 +105 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +345 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -460 | +340 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -121 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +360 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -454 | +371 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -470 | +360 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +370 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -550 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -101 | 47.5 -107 | -440 | +344 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -8 -102 | 47.5 -109 | -444 | +352 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 -104 | -426 | +400 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Buccaneers).
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Drew Shelton (OT, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -460 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -200 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -181 |
| Market (22 books) | -8.0 | -411 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -8.0 | -103 | -102 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -430 | -336 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 10-01 08:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 9
5 gamesBest: Iowa +3.5, Nasty PickIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmIowa +3.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Iowa +2.5 · getting 1 pt · -115 at DraftKings · was +1Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Bet it. Iowa to win · +145 at Fanatics, 5 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -113 | -173 | +149 |
All 23 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -175 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -107 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -160 | +130 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -125 | 41 -114 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -113 | -173 | +149 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | — | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -111 | -190 | +147 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 58°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.4 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 41.5, only $319 available; Under 41.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +145 | +119 | +4.8% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 | -115 | -135 | +3.9% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus; total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmSan José State -6.5should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -103 | 44 +100 | -232 | +194 |
All 22 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -230 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -230 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 43 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -255 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -103 | 44 +100 | -232 | +194 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | 43.5 | -213 | +203 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -265 | +199 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F.
Kalshi thin: San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $76 available; Over 43.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -290 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -299 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -188 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -6.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -225 | -235 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -102 | -175 | +150 |
All 22 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 59 -113 | -180 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -188 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -102 | -175 | +150 |
| Polymarket | — | 59.5 +100 | — | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 59.5 -109 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $192 available; Under 59.5, only $17 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $370 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -189 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -168 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmWashington State +6should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 6, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.3 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Utah State by 4.5 to Utah State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -6 -106 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | — | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -199 | +169 |
All 22 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -106 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | — | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -121 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 44 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 44 -114 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -227 | +180 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -199 | +169 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 | — | +178 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -116 | 43.5 -119 | -232 | +177 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Utah State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Utah State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Utah State Aggies -5.5, only $17 available; Washington State Cougars +5.5, only $495 available; Over 43.5, only $115 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.2 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -130 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +6.0 | -114 | -114 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +165 | +178 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.2 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pmBYU -10.5should be BYU -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 10.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -10.5 -107 | 47 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -126 54¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 47.5 +101 | -413 | +320 |
All 23 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -107 | 47 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -126 54¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -108 | 47 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -500 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -405 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 47 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | -440 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -104 | 47 -103 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 47.5 +101 | -413 | +320 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | -490 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $241 available; Under 45.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -422 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -390 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (20 books) | -10.5 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -10.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -420 | -371 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBest: UCF +11.0, NastiestUCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUCF +11Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be UCF +7 · getting 4 pts · -110 at Fanatics · was +9.5NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Bet it. UCF +11 · -110 at Fanatics, 2.5 points better than the +8.5 -110 we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Oklahoma State by 9, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -116 | -441 | +338 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -11 -110 | 53 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetMGM | -11 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +344 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -11 -110 | 53 -115 | -440 | +345 |
| Bovada | -11 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -114 | 53 -114 | -440 | +344 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -116 | -441 | +338 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -104 | 53.5 -104 | — | +355 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | -500 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 +100 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $32 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys ML, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -10.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -192 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +11.0 | -110 | -148 | +7.4% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +350 | +255 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -10.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5should be San Diego State +13 · getting 1.5 pts · -105 at FanDuelNasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: FanDuel at -105. Market says Oregon State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -673 | +474 |
All 21 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +488 |
| betPARX | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -15 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -835 | +540 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +485 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +460 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -780 | +530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 53.5 -103 | -670 | +488 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -676 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -673 | +474 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +100 | -614 | +525 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -699 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.
Kalshi thin: Oregon State Beavers -14.5, only $54 available; Under 53.5, only $5 available; Under 53.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -363 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -303 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.5 | -620 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +500 | +436 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts · -108 at TOM · was +1▼Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Texas A&M +3.5 at -108 at TOM. Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 3.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 48 -112 | -168 | +145 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +148 |
| betPARX | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3 -120 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -166 | +138 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 48 -108 | -168 | +148 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 48 -112 | -168 | +145 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -117 | -163 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Texas A&M.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $5 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -108 | -122 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +131 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3 +100 at TOMBet it · now UNLV +3 · -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +3 +100Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +139 | -161 |
All 21 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47.5 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3 +100 | 47.5 -113 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -115 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +103 | 48 -105 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +134 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +139 | -161 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 47.5 -116 | +131 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $18 available; North Dakota State Bison -3.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -117 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +131 | +120 | +2.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMemphis -13.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Memphis -15.5 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Memphis -13.5: all 3 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -14 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 54 -105 | -594 | +430 |
All 21 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 53 -113 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 52.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 53 -115 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 52.5 -115 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 53 -112 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -673 | +455 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 54 -105 | -594 | +430 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 | — | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 53.5 -114 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -13.5 · -115 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, weather, now Damn Near Nasty.
A play at -12.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $266 available; Under 53.5, only $15 available; Over 53.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 53.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -871 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -852 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -699 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -13.5 | -115 | -125 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -564 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 5.9.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 53.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +13.5should be South Carolina +10.5 · getting 3 pts at Kalshi · was +15Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. South Carolina +13.5: all 3 ratings 4.3 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -12.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -102 | 61 +100 | -508 | +379 |
All 22 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 61 -108 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -118 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -107 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 61 -108 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 61 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -106 | -483 | +392 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | -520 | +370 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -103 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -510 | +362 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -102 | 61 +100 | -508 | +379 |
| Polymarket | — | 59.5 -113 | -456 | +426 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 60.5 -114 | -469 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM (21h ago). Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 83°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 2.5 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.5 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -291 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -309 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -259 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 58.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5 | -116 | -119 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +398 | +367 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 3.3.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +3.5should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2▼A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -117 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but NC State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 60 -103 | +150 | -175 |
All 21 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 59.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 60 -103 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +140 | -172 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 60 -103 | +150 | -175 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 +100 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -119 | 59.5 -114 | +137 | -176 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -117 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 72°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · NC State.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $24 available; Under 59.5, only $4 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +161 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +194 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -112 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +146 | +121 | +4.5% |
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +3.5 | -117 | -133 | +3.1% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +161 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmMiami (OH) -2should be Miami (OH) -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +111 | -127 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -114 | 46.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2 -114 | 46.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 46.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -103 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -108 | — | +113 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -111 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -2.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $4 available; Over 47.5, only $77 available; Under 47.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +415 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -112 | -123 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -130 | -143 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -15 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings▲A Little Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 15. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
All 21 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -113 | 43.5 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -14 -113 | 43.5 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 43.5 -117 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -698 | +456 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 | -525 | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 43.5 -111 | -800 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Western Michigan.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $16 available; Over 43.5, only $3 available; Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -18.5 | -790 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -749 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -591 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -115 | -120 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -540 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9should be California +8 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +13A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +9 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 +101 48¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
All 21 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 +101 48¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 +102 | 52.5 -110 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -112 | 54 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| BetUS | +9.5 +100 | 54 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +10 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +295 | -375 |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 +106 | 52.5 -108 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +310 | -410 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -104 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 53.5 -111 | +295 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 +100 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 60°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5, only $36 available; Under 53.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +315 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.0 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.0 | +100 | -105 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +296 | +292 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: spread +9.0 here against +9.9 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia Tech +7should be Georgia Tech +6 · getting 1 pt at TOMA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 +105 47¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 45 -101 | +204 | -244 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 +105 47¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -106 | 44.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -107 | 44.5 -112 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -106 | 44.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 44.5 -113 | +200 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -120 | 44 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -112 | +210 | -258 |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -103 | 44.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +212 | -270 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 45 -101 | +204 | -244 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +100 | 45.5 +113 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 44.5 -119 | +214 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech +7.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 70°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $80 available; Duke Blue Devils -6.5, only $30 available; Under 45.5, only $414 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.5 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.0 | -112 | -118 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +215 | +207 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -105 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.0.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.5 consensus; total 47.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmJames Madison -7.5should be James Madison -8 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -9.5▲A Little Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but James Madison is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 +101 48¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 52.5 -105 | +257 | -318 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 +101 48¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -113 | +245 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -118 | 51.5 -113 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -118 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -310 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -106 | +230 | -285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -111 | 52 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +240 | -310 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 52.5 -105 | +257 | -318 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 | +257 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 52.5 -114 | +234 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -7.5 · -102 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 73°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · James Madison.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from James Madison, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $1 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $52 available; Over 51.5, only $319 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +11.0 | +374 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +280 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +479 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -102 | -106 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -285 | -294 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOMA Little Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
All 21 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -116 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -329 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -270 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -116 | 44.5 -111 | -370 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 +100 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.0 · -120 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Kalshi thin: Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $119 available; Under 44.5, only $1 available; Over 43.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -349 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -369 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -312 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.0 | -120 | -123 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -297 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus; total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 57.5weather: 15 mph wind and 54% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.5, for the weather. 15 mph wind and 54% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -112 | 57.5 -102 | +301 | -384 |
All 21 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +290 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +299 | -375 |
| betPARX | +10 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +290 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +10 -114 | 57.5 -109 | +290 | -385 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 57 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 56.5 -112 | +295 | -375 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 56.5 -115 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -105 | 56.5 -125 | +285 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -112 | 57.5 -102 | +301 | -384 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -116 | +280 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $390 available; Over 57.5, only $142 available; Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $165 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +125 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -103 | -105 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +296 | +297 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | +105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmOver 46Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 47.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 47.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Air Force is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7 -106 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
All 21 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -104 | 46 -112 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -109 | 47.5 -104 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +100 | 46 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 | +270 | -300 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | +246 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -112 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.4 away from Air Force, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $122 available; Over 47.5, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +317 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.0 | -114 | -116 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -295 | -280 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -112 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUnder 50weather: 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50, for the weather. 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7 -102 | 50 -105 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -107 | +260 | -322 |
All 22 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -102 | 50 -105 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +101 | 49 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +240 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -120 | 49 -105 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -103 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +245 | -305 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | +255 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +245 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +105 | 49 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -107 | +260 | -322 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 49.5 +104 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 49.5 -111 | +244 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $249 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +292 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +228 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +186 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +380 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -118 | -109 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -305 | -264 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +292 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmOver 51should be 52.7 · getting 1.7 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
All 21 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +415 | -550 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -110 | 51 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 51 -114 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +425 | -550 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +410 | -550 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +390 | -530 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +395 | -565 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 51 -114 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -104 | — | -488 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | +380 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -115 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +560 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +312 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +365 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +427 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 6, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
All 21 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +7 -116 | 52.5 -106 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +7 -118 | 51.5 -118 | +215 | -265 |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -104 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -114 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +220 | -280 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -108 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 51.5 -116 | +216 | -290 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 +100 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +215 | +198 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -124 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
All 21 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 47.5 -113 | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -170 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $1 available; Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $90 available; Under 47.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -112 | -120 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +134 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 64 in 100 · -177Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 4.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Pittsburgh by 4 to Pittsburgh by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
All 22 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 47 -109 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 46.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 47.5 -106 | -178 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 46.5 -125 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -108 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -192 | +155 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +100 | -170 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | -202 | +155 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -177 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $336 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $38 available; Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5, only $158 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -302 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -341 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -177 | -181 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3should be Ohio -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 46 -111 | -149 | +129 |
All 21 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 46 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46.5 -103 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -104 | 46 -111 | -149 | +129 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -113 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 45.5 -116 | -155 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas +2.5, only $71 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -245 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -148 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arizona is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 61 -110 | +138 | -159 |
All 21 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -108 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +141 | -161 |
| betPARX | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 61 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 61 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 61.5 -105 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 61.5 -114 | +141 | -161 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 61 -110 | +138 | -159 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 +100 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -114 | +132 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $63 available; Under 61.5, only $6 available; Arizona Wildcats ML, only $296 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.0 | -115 | -116 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -161 | -160 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +162 |
All 21 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -185 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 53.5 -117 | -186 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -103 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +162 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -117 | — | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -194 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Temple, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls -3.5, only $6 available; UConn Huskies +3.5, only $17 available; Under 54.5, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -175 | -170 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -37should be Northwestern -38 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36.5 -118 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -127 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $17 available; Over 53.5, only $77 available; Under 53.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -39.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (17 books) | -37.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -37.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -105 | -378 | +297 |
All 21 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -420 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -108 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 +105 | 50.5 -105 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 49.5 -103 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -105 | -378 | +297 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -104 | — | +317 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -125 | 49.5 -116 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 +100 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 63°F, 27% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $349 available; Under 49.5, only $9 available; Appalachian State Mountaineers ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -355 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -130 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -370 | -323 | -2.4% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20.5should be Toledo -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -1332 | +786 |
All 21 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | +1150 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | +1150 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 54.5 -113 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2100 | +1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 -114 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1408 | +760 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -1332 | +786 |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 | -1150 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -1493 | +720 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Toledo).
Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets -20.5, only $18 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $285 available; Over 55.5, only $383 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -835 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1228 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -925 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1300 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -20.5 | -117 | -102 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1600 | -952 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 57.5should be 60.1 · getting 2.6 pts · was 60.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
All 21 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -114 | 57.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -120 | 58 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -28.5 -111 | 58.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -115 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $407 available; Under 57.5, only $103 available; North Texas Mean Green ML, only $300 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1954 |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3124 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -1951 |
| Market (18 books) | -28.5 | -4172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1937 | +2299 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus; total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmKansas State -2.5should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
All 22 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 56 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 55.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 55.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | -145 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 55.5 -114 | -144 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).
Kalshi thin: Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $26 available; Over 55.5, only $293 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $121 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmIllinois -2.5should be Illinois -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Illinois by 3.5 to Illinois by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
All 21 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 48.5 -105 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -104 | 48 -103 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -108 | +122 | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -119 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Michigan State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +113 | +118 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNavy -2.5should be Navy -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
All 21 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | -143 | +115 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 49.5 +104 | -133 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -138 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen -2.5, only $7 available; Over 48.5, only $17 available; Under 48.5, only $127 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -113 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -206 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNotre Dame -38.5should be Notre Dame -37.5 · giving up 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 +100 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -102 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -106 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $40 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available; Under 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -33.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +38.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Stanford Cardinal ML | +4405 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8should be Texas -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +8 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -322 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -115 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -112 | 39.5 -115 | +256 | -315 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +240 | -335 |
| BetUS | +8 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +258 | -315 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -335 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 | +255 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +240 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -108 | 39.5 -114 | +256 | -315 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +261 | -342 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -322 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 38.5 -113 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +250 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $160 available; Under 39.5, only $201 available; Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +489 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +250 |
| Market (19 books) | +8.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +8.0 | -115 | -101 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +275 | +287 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12should be Oregon -12 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -12 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +358 |
All 20 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -105 | 58 -110 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -110 | 59 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +358 |
| betPARX | -12 -110 | 59 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -12 -112 | 59 -109 | -500 | +350 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +360 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 | -475 | +345 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -101 | 58.5 -112 | -460 | +358 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Polymarket | -11.5 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 55°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $259 available; UCLA Bruins +11.5, only $465 available; Under 58.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.6 consensus.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -513 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -532 |
| Market (17 books) | -12.0 | -440 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.0 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -404 | -409 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.6 consensus; total 58.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -10should be East Carolina -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 47.5 -105 | -386 | +303 |
All 21 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 47.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -104 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 47.5 -105 | -386 | +303 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +100 | -355 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -111 | -441 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward East Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -371 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -344 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -10.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -375 | -346 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -125 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -109 | 56 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -122 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $8 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3140 |
| Massey | -31.0 | -3916 |
| Market (17 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes -33.0 | -125 | -102 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | — | -5978 | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMarshall -3should be Marshall -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
All 21 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -159 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 58 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 58.5 -106 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 58.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 58.5 -105 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 59.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -155 | +126 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 59.5 +108 | -150 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 58.5 -109 | -159 | +124 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 58.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd -3.5, only $29 available; Over 58.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -137 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +125 | +138 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +9should be Kentucky +8 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 52 -106 | +271 | -339 |
All 22 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9 -113 | 52 -110 | +275 | -385 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 52 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -345 |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +260 | -330 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -115 | 51.5 -125 | +265 | -355 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -111 | 51.5 -108 | +274 | -340 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 52 -106 | +271 | -339 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | +285 | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 51.5 -125 | +265 | -370 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 +100 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 75°F, 33% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -9.5, only $6 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $408 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +311 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +191 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.0 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +8.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +265 | +287 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +9.5should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -103 | 50 +101 | +294 | -373 |
All 21 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +289 | -360 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +295 | -400 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +290 | -360 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -106 | 49.5 -105 | +290 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | +289 | -360 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9 -110 | 49 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -103 | 50 +101 | +294 | -373 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 | +300 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 48.5 -119 | +280 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 +100 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $24 available; Over 49.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +210 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +290 | +302 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +341 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -2 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 52 -110 | -116 | +101 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52 -112 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -105 | 52 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -110 | 52 -112 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -112 | 52 -113 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -105 | 52 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 51.5 -125 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -101 | 52 -108 | -121 | +101 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 52 -110 | -116 | +101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | — | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 51.5 -119 | -125 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.6 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs +1.5, only $402 available; Under 51.5, only $84 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $292 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -110 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -161 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +107 | +111 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus; total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -110 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmLouisiana Tech -2.5should be Louisiana Tech -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -111 | -147 | +128 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 47.5 -103 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -104 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -111 | -147 | +128 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -104 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -111 | -156 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 82°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $167 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $142 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -107 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -211 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -117 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -125 | -108 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -130 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
All 22 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 55 -108 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -114 | -105 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -125 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -107 | 55 -103 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 55.5 +104 | -113 | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 54.5 -116 | -123 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -115 | -105 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $73 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -171 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +1.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +107 | +111 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.9.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9.5should be Virginia -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -116 | -363 | +288 |
All 21 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +289 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 50 -113 | -375 | +270 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -360 | +285 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 50 -108 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -116 | -363 | +288 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +108 | — | +300 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 50.5 -111 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange +9.5, only $39 available; Over 50.5, only $105 available; Under 51.5, only $266 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -338 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -335 | -316 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2should be Minnesota -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +2 -110 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -127 |
All 21 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -114 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 51 -103 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | — | — | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | +110 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $42 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $34 available; Over 49.5, only $422 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +179 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -125 | -118 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -725 | +502 |
All 21 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15 -118 | 50.5 -118 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -107 | 50 -120 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -113 | 51 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 +100 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -102 | -700 | +500 |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -800 | +540 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 50.5 -125 | -785 | +510 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -752 | +510 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -725 | +502 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +100 | — | +567 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 50.5 -125 | -847 | +500 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 69°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -16.5, only $117 available; Kansas Jayhawks +16.5, only $7 available; Under 51.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -545 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -411 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -681 |
| Market (18 books) | -15.5 | -651 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | -113 | -102 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +540 | +549 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -20.5 -110 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -102 | 51 -101 | -1607 | +896 |
All 20 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -120 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -113 | 50 -107 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -113 | 50.5 -106 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 49.5 -119 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +900 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -109 | 50 -105 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1587 | +800 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -102 | 51 -101 | -1607 | +896 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -113 | -1329 | — |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5, only $2 available; Over 50.5, only $95 available; Under 50.5, only $478 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -471 |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1322 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -868 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.5 | -1379 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils ML | -1400 | -943 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -107 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6.5should be Boise State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -248 |
All 21 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -240 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +195 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -248 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | +212 | -223 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $10 available; Under 47.5, only $389 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +290 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +200 | +205 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sun Oct 11
13 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Texans at Titans, Titans +7.5.Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.3% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +147 | -177 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
All 24 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +147 | -177 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 42 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +157 | -179 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -120 | 42 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -112 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 42 -102 | +157 | -179 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +147 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| theScore Bet | +3 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos -3.5, only $164 available; Over 42.5, only $243 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Branson Taylor (G, Chargers) and 1 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +154 | +141 | +2.2% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +7.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Titans +6.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +6.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings 3.6 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
All 25 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -106 | 38 -112 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 +100 | 37 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +306 | -385 |
| betPARX | +7 -106 | 38 -112 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7 -106 | 38 -112 | +260 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +308 | -385 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -112 | 37.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -106 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -108 | +295 | -375 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 38 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 37.5 -115 | +290 | -360 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +285 | -405 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -105 | 37.5 -107 | +306 | -385 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +290 | -410 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 36.5 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans -7.5, only $16 available; Over 36.5, only $316 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 3 more.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +349 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +181 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +143 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 38.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -113 | -118 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +310 | +272 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +349 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmOver 42should be 43.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 46.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 42.0. Massey and FPI say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Bengals's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +7 -107 | 42 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -118 | 42 -115 | +263 | -325 |
| betPARX | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -325 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 43 -105 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -103 | 42.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -108 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -102 | 42.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -114 | 42 -113 | +263 | -325 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +240 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +104 | 42.5 -108 | — | -317 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.0 · -115 at TOM (21h ago). The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $47 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $86 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $261 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Reese Taylor (CB, Dolphins).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.0 | +339 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +343 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +375 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +303 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 45.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | -102 | -108 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -310 | -307 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +3.5should be Ravens +2.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2.5, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 7 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 7 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ravens is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 44 -103 | -187 | +164 |
All 24 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -188 | +164 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -182 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | -188 | +164 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -192 | +148 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 44 -103 | -187 | +164 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $301 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Durham Smythe (TE, Ravens), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +206 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +126 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | -110 | -142 | +6.3% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +155 | +124 | +5.3% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7.5should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.8 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -362 | +296 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -8 -110 | 42 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 42 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 42 -108 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 41.5 -119 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -105 | -355 | +280 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -106 | 41.5 -115 | -375 | +300 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -385 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 42 -107 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -420 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -362 | +296 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 42.5 +108 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | -391 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Tank Bigsby (RB, Eagles), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Caleb Ransaw (S, Jaguars) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +300 | +251 | +3.5% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers +3should be Packers +1.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 1.5, but the market has moved 4.8 points away from Packers since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Packers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +3 -120 | 45.5 -113 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 45.5 | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 46 -102 | +130 | -147 |
All 25 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 45.5 -113 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 45.5 | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -113 | +127 | -147 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -109 | +132 | -159 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -104 | 45.5 -112 | +129 | -152 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +101 | 45.5 -110 | +127 | -147 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 46 -102 | +130 | -147 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +104 | 46.5 +108 | +138 | -144 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -147 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers +2.5, only $344 available; Over 45.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Packers).
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +139 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -120 |
| FPI | -1.0 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +187 |
| Massey | -1.5 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +129 | +113 | +3.3% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +3.0 | -120 | -133 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +139 consensus.
New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +3.5should be Giants +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Commanders by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -105 | 44 +104 | -191 | +167 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +161 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -182 | +151 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -180 | +150 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 43.5 -118 | -190 | +160 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -105 | -185 | +161 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -195 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -105 | 44 +104 | -191 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -104 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -187 | +157 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F, 95% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +105 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.5 | -104 | -115 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +155 | +154 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 46 -106 | -170 | +150 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 46 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 46.5 -106 | -170 | +141 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -113 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -115 | 46 -105 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 46 -106 | -170 | +150 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +117 | 46.5 +104 | — | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 59°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $237 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $69 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Dante Pettis (WR, 49ers) and 2 more.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +141 | +126 | +2.8% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
All 25 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 39.5 -114 | -137 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -131 | +111 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 39.5 -114 | -137 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 39.5 -114 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 40 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -105 | 40 -109 | -140 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 39.5 -118 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -126 | +108 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -120 | 40 -104 | -131 | +111 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -138 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
| Polymarket | — | 40.5 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 40.5 -109 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $460 available; Under 40.5, only $12 available; New York Jets -1.5, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Dylan Parham (G, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -122 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 39.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -124 | -108 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -130 | -114 | -3.3% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmSteelers -1should be Steelers -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 1, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Steelers by 2 to Steelers by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -146 | +121 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -146 | +121 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -113 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 44.5 -113 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -104 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -142 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +2.5, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Will Mallory (TE, Colts), Jamel Dean (CB, Steelers), Derrick Harmon (DT, Steelers).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | -105 | +108 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -134 | -115 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +102 | 45 -108 | -183 | +160 |
All 25 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +161 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 44.5 -115 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -107 | 45 -107 | -185 | +161 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -202 | +156 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +102 | 45 -108 | -183 | +160 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 45.5 +104 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -193 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -240 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -180 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -204 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -188 | -183 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -2should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 2, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -104 | 42 -102 | +118 | -132 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +112 | -132 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 42 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetUS | +1 +100 | 42 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 42 -102 | +112 | -132 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +106 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -104 | 42 -102 | +118 | -132 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 41.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -120 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -2.5, only $444 available; New Orleans Saints +2.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Donovan Jackson (G, Vikings).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +116 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +201 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +191 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -2.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -125 | -123 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -113 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5should be Lions -5.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -105 | +218 | -256 |
All 25 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +190 | -235 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +205 | -250 |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -118 | 54.5 -108 | +198 | -240 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +193 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -105 | +218 | -256 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 +100 | 54.5 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | +202 | -244 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +5.5, only $321 available; Under 54.5, only $26 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hunter Long (TE, Cardinals), Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +199 here against +234 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +222 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +196 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +275 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +111 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.0 | +199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -5.5 | -104 | +101 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -240 | -216 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +199 here against +234 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmBills +3should be Bills +3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM (21h ago) | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
All 25 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +142 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 54 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -159 | +134 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 54.5 -116 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +136 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 54.5 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | — | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, only $168 available; Over 54.5, only $156 available; Under 54.5, only $120 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -131 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -107 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +138 | +137 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -109 | -109 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-10-1 | 47.4% | -1.7 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 28-32 | 46.7% | -6.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 233 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-07 13:59.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 198 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 289 |
| SP+ | 11.25 | 226 |
| FPI | 11.27 | 226 |
| Massey | 11.32 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.41 | 279 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 172 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 169 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 172 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 198 |
The line archive, 289 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 99, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 274 games. The close misses the final by 11.06, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.55, Pinnacle's close by 11.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 47 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 9.44 | 64 |
| Massey | 9.48 | 47 |
| FPI | 9.79 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 9.81 | 64 |
| nfelo | 9.93 | 63 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 47 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
The line archive, 64 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.65 points better than the close on average over 59 games. The close misses the final by 9.66, the open by 9.71, our raw ratings number by 9.91, Pinnacle's close by 9.67. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.65, Polymarket 8.60, Bally Bet 9.15.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Under | 52.1 | 52.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Over | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona +5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 240 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 177 | 13.6 | 55-66 (45%) | 35-36 (49%) |
| Massey | 179 | 13.0 | 39-45 (46%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 182 | 13.0 | 40-47 (46%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 54 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 50 | 11.1 | 13-18 (42%) | 4-7 (36%) |
| FPI | 47 | 10.6 | 10-5 (67%) | 6-2 (75%) |
| The blend | 50 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 20 | 56% | 50% |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 72 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. 6 cleared every check.
What's changed since 7:49am
- MovedUCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys is now UCF Knights +11.0, was UCF Knights +10.0.
- OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.5.
- MovedIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies price moved from -116 to -115.
- NewNew Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers is now a pick: New Mexico State Aggies +7.0 at -112.
- NewTexas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers is now a pick: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 at -108.
- OffChicago Bears at Green Bay Packers dropped off. It was Green Bay Packers +3.0.
- OffWake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State Wolfpack dropped off. It was NC State Wolfpack +3.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.8Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguarstoward Jacksonville Jaguarswith the public
- → 2.8Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Greentoward North Texas Mean Greenwith the public
- → 2.4Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 3%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 245 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 63 | 9.93 |
| The market | 353 | 10.81 |
| Massey | 216 | 10.92 |
| FPI | 274 | 11.01 |
| SP+ | 226 | 11.25 |
| Sagarin | 343 | 11.92 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 155-147 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-11 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 907284 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.29 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.58 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.53 |
| betPARX | 256 | 1.50 |
| Bally Bet | 256 | 1.49 |
| Kalshi | 261 | 1.47 |
| BetRivers | 464 | 1.46 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 433 | 1.40 |
| LowVig.ag | 423 | 1.40 |
| Courtside | 219 | 1.37 |
| MyBookie.ag | 357 | 1.37 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 256 | 1.26 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.25 |
| Fanatics | 401 | 1.24 |
| Caesars | 348 | 1.17 |
| theScore Bet | 252 | 1.16 |
| BetUS | 362 | 1.16 |
| Bovada | 432 | 1.12 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.10 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.08 |
| Pinnacle | 433 | 1.08 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.05 |
| Fliff | 208 | 1.04 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 0.92 |
| Polymarket | 103 | 0.79 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ unchanged for 9 days
- Sagarin updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
- nfelo updated today
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.