Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week

Buck Nasty's

Nasty Picks of the Week

Updated Tue 3:25 pm · TOM just now · 101 priced · 1 Nasty Pick · 26 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty

Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty our side, but too thin to betNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

App State at East CarolinaApp State +7.5-110+4.4%sat 9:00 amAll 3 ratings (SP+, FPI, Massey) are on this side.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Middle Tennessee at Marshall▲Middle Tennessee +13.5-105 · 2.4% after the price, the bar is 3%sat 4:00 pma pick at +14 Ravens at ColtsColts +3.5-110 · 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%sun 10:00 ama pick at +4

A Little Nasty

Browns at JaguarsBrowns +9should be Browns +8 · getting 1 ptsun 10:00 ama pick at +9 San Diego State at UCLASan Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 ptssat 4:15 pma pick at +12.5 Memphis at Boise StateOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 ptssat 3:00 pm Cardinals at ChargersUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptssun 1:25 pm Saints at LionsUnder 49.5should be 48.8 · getting 0.8 ptssun 10:00 am Iowa State at IowaOver 40.5should be 41 · getting 0.5 ptssat 4:30 pm Arizona State at Texas A&MOver 50.5should be 51 · getting 0.5 ptssat 9:00 am Rutgers at Boston CollegeOver 54.5should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 ptsfri 4:30 pm Cowboys at GiantsOver 48should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 ptssun 5:20 pm Missouri at KansasOver 50.5should be 51.5 · getting 1 ptfri 5:00 pm Bears at PanthersUnder 47.5should be 46.6 · getting 0.7 ptssun 10:00 am Jets at TitansOver 39should be 41.2 · getting 2 ptssun 10:00 am UCF at PittsburghUnder 57.5should be 56.7 · getting 0.8 ptssat 12:30 pm Oklahoma at Michigan▲Michigan to winour data says 37 in 100 · +175Dogsat 9:00 am Duke at IllinoisOver 51should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 ptssat 12:30 pm

Buck's Take

Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.

Worth a look: 2 sides (Middle Tennessee +13.5, Colts +3.5). These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.

Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, the ratings in agreement, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Candidates have the agreement but not the rest, and the all-sources rule itself is still being graded (0 totals and 0 sides so far). Stale numbers are proven and switch on inside 48 hours.

Moved since the last run: Up: Middle Tennessee at Marshall (Damn Near Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Middle Tennessee); Oklahoma at Michigan (A Little Nasty · Michigan, was Not Nasty). Down: Arizona at BYU (Not Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Over); California at Syracuse (Not Nasty, was Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse).

Half Nasty (betting anyway): Buck likes Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13.5 (the ratings make it Marshall by 6.5) and Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5 (the ratings make it Ravens by 1).

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.

GameThe call

New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at Seahawks

NFL tomorrow 5:20 pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 3, our data says Seahawks by 3.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-4.5

FPI

-4.0

Sagarin

-4.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-3.5

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3 -114	44.5 -106	-170	+149

Seahawks -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -180

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Patriots), Ben Brown (C, Patriots) and 5 more.

FanDuel still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

The marketSeahawks by 3the number to beat

nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.5 apart

FPISeahawks by 41 apart

SagarinSeahawks by 40.9 apart

MasseySeahawks by 2.50.7 apart

We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-175
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-4.0	-162
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -3.0	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-180	-149	-4.5%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.

GameThe call

San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at Rams

NFL thu 10 sep, 5:35 pm · neutral

49ers to win

our data says 40 in 100 · +172 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

-4.0

Massey

We say

-3.0

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	49ers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-200 65¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -110	48 -111	-203	+176

49ers +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · +172

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: 49ers loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

A Little Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

49ers to win · +172. A price bet: 49ers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Also out: Keir Thomas II (LB, Rams), Mykel Williams (DE, 49ers), Aaron Donald (DT, Rams).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart

FPIRams by 30.6 apart

SagarinRams by 40.6 apart

Masseya pick'em3.3 apart

We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-117
FPI	-3.0	-142
Sagarin	-4.0	-165
Massey	pk	-102
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-184

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	+172	+148	+3.6%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers +3.5	-110	-116	+1.4%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at Miami

CFB thu 10 sep, 5:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Florida A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Pinnacle	-56.5 -128	62.5 -104	—	—

Opened -53.5, now -56.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Miami).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)	-56.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.9.

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Missouri at Kansas

GameThe call

Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at Kansas

CFB fri 11 sep, 5:00 pm

Over 50.5

should be 51.5 · getting 1 pt

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 4.5. Nothing there.

Missouri sideKansas side

Market

+5.0

SP+

+3.0

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+5.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

+4.5

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Missouri ML
TOM	+5 -110	50.5 -110	+170	-210
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	50 -112	+176	-213

Kansas +5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +170 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kansas to win · +170 at TOM. A price bet: Kansas loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +7.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kansas).

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMissouri by 5the number to beat

SP+Missouri by 31.8 apart

FPIMissouri by 41 apart

SagarinMissouri by 5.50.5 apart

MasseyKansas by 26.9 apart

We settle onMissouri by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+140
FPI	+4.0	+152
Sagarin	+5.5	+180
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (12 books)	+5.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+170	+162	+1.1%
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +5.0	-110	-112	+0.5%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston College

CFB fri 11 sep, 4:30 pm

Over 54.5

should be 55.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.9 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boston College by 3, we say Boston College by 2.5. Nothing there.

Rutgers sideBoston College side

Market

-3.0

SP+

+1.5

FPI

-4.5

Sagarin

Massey

-2.5

We say

-2.5

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Rutgers ML
TOM	-3 -121	54.5 -104	-160	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +109 46¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-167 61¢	—
Pinnacle	-3 -116	54.5 -101	-164	+139

Rutgers +3.0 · +101 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Rutgers to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 56. That's 2.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 54.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Rutgers +3.0 · +101 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -4.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +4.0 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $416 available; Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketBoston College by 3the number to beat

SP+Rutgers by 1.54.6 apart

FPIBoston College by 4.51.5 apart

Sagarina pick'em2.9 apart

MasseyBoston College by 2.50.5 apart

We settle onBoston College by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.5	+118
FPI	-4.5	-162
Sagarin	pk	-101
Massey	-2.5	-130
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-153

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	57.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.0	+101	-105	+1.5%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+135	+132	+0.5%
Total	Over 54.5	-104	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at Louisville

CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Villanova ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-36.5 -120	56.5 -115	—	—

Opened -35.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Louisville).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $379 available; Under 56.5, only $353 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)	-37.0	-2475

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Louisville Cardinals since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 1.0.

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC State

CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)	-30.5	-2638

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	—

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at Virginia

CFB fri 11 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Virginia).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (7 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 1.0.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

79 gamesBest: App State +7.5, Nasty Pick

GameThe call

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

App State +7.5

should be App State +6.5 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +8.5

Nasty Pick

Nasty Pick. Take App State +7.5 at -110 at TOM. Market says East Carolina by 7.5, we say East Carolina by 6.5.

App State sideEast Carolina side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-1.5

FPI

-4.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-6.5

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	App State ML
TOM	-7.5 -110	56.5 -110	-310	+235
Pinnacle	-7.5 -102	56.5 -108	-325	+255

App State +7.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

The play

App State to win · +235 at TOM

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: App State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same call

the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 40% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · App State, now A Little Nasty · App State.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward App State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Full detail

The marketEast Carolina by 7.5the number to beat

SP+East Carolina by 1.56.2 apart

FPIEast Carolina by 4.53.2 apart

MasseyEast Carolina by 2.54.8 apart

We settle onEast Carolina by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-115
FPI	-4.5	-157
Sagarin	doesn't rate App State
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-297

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	54.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5	-110	-132	+4.4%
Moneyline	Appalachian State Mountaineers ML	+235	+200	+3.5%
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

Middle Tennessee +13.5

should be Middle Tennessee +11.5 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +17.5

▲Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.4% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side

Market

-13.5

SP+

-8.5

FPI

-4.0

Sagarin

-11.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-11.5

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Middle Tennessee ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	57 -105	-580	+410
Kalshi	-13.5 -112 51¢	56.5 -121 53¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -110	57 -112	-645	+440

Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Middle Tennessee to win · +410 at TOM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 57.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Middle Tennessee +13.5 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 41% chance of rain.

Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Middle Tennessee, now Damn Near Nasty.

Opened -17.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -458 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMarshall by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Marshall by 8.54.9 apart

FPIMarshall by 49.4 apart

SagarinMarshall by 11.51.8 apart

MasseyMarshall by 2.510.8 apart

We settle onMarshall by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-252
FPI	-4.0	-154
Sagarin	-11.5	-361
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (12 books)	-13.5	-555

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	60.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.5	-105	-115	+2.4%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+410	+345	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.0	-105	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: moneyline -555 here against -458 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:15 pm

San Diego State +11.5

should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5

A Little Nasty · San Diego State

A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 55.0 as well.

San Diego State sideUCLA side

Market

-11.5

SP+

-8.5

FPI

-6.0

Sagarin

-16.0

Massey

-3.0

We say

-10.0

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-11.5 -115	55 -110	-450	+340
Pinnacle	-11.5 -113	55 -108	-491	+356

San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

San Diego State to win · +340 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 51. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

San Diego State +11.5 · -105 at TOM.

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · San Diego State.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.5.

Full detail

The marketUCLA by 11.5the number to beat

SP+UCLA by 8.53.2 apart

FPIUCLA by 65.5 apart

SagarinUCLA by 164.6 apart

MasseyUCLA by 38.6 apart

We settle onUCLA by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-244
FPI	-6.0	-190
Sagarin	-16.0	-616
Massey	-3.0	-135
Market (12 books)	-11.5	-431

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +11.5	-105	-119	+3.1%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+340	+302	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 3.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

Over 55

should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Nothing there.

Memphis sideBoise State side

Market

-8.5

SP+

-5.5

FPI

-8.0

Sagarin

-9.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

-8.0

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	Memphis ML
TOM	-8.5 -110	55 -115	-345	+270
Pinnacle	-9 -111	54.5 -116	-365	+280

Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Memphis to win · +270 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Memphis to win · +270 at TOM. A price bet: Memphis loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Boise State).

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -330 here against -296 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat

SP+Boise State by 5.53.2 apart

FPIBoise State by 80.6 apart

SagarinBoise State by 9.50.9 apart

MasseyBoise State by 26.4 apart

We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-176
FPI	-8.0	-234
Sagarin	-9.5	-275
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	+270	+234	+2.9%
Spread	Memphis Tigers +8.5	-110	-121	+2.4%
Total	Over 55.0	-115	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus; moneyline -330 here against -296 consensus.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&M

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Over 50.5

should be 51 · getting 0.5 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. Nothing there.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side

Market

-14.5

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-15.5

Massey

-3.0

We say

-15.0

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Arizona State ML
TOM	-14.5 -104	50.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-14 -111	50.5 -104	-647	+441

Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Texas A&M to win · -700 at TOM

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Texas A&M -14.5 · -104 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

A play at -13.5 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat

SP+Texas A&M by 17.52.9 apart

FPITexas A&M by 161.4 apart

SagarinTexas A&M by 15.51 apart

MasseyTexas A&M by 311.7 apart

We settle onTexas A&M by 1521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-728
FPI	-16.0	-603
Sagarin	-15.5	-571
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-14.5	-489

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies -14.5	-104	-111	+1.6%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-700	-520	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

Over 40.5

should be 41 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 40.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.

Iowa State sideIowa side

Market

-14.0

SP+

-17.0

FPI

-14.0

Sagarin

-17.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-14.5

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-14 -106	40.5 -105	-600	+430
Pinnacle	-14 -104	41 +101	-603	+417

Iowa -14.0 · -106 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · -600 at TOM

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Iowa -14.0 · -106 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 31% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

A play at -13.0 or better.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -460 consensus.

Full detail

The marketIowa by 14the number to beat

SP+Iowa by 173.1 apart

FPIIowa by 140 apart

SagarinIowa by 17.53.4 apart

MasseyIowa by 2.511.4 apart

We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-700
FPI	-14.0	-476
Sagarin	-17.5	-728
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (12 books)	-14.0	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0	-106	-114	+1.8%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-600	-493	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -460 consensus.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Michigan to win

our data says 37 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

▲A Little Nasty · Michigan

A Little Nasty, Michigan. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 5. At +175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side

Market

+5.5

SP+

+7.5

FPI

+5.0

Sagarin

+1.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

+5.0

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Oklahoma ML
TOM	+5.5 -110	43.5 -110	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	43 -114	+184	-224

Michigan +5.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Michigan to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Michigan to win · +175 at TOM. A price bet: Michigan loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Michigan.

Opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +7.0.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOklahoma by 5.5the number to beat

SP+Oklahoma by 7.51.8 apart

FPIOklahoma by 50.3 apart

SagarinOklahoma by 1.54.1 apart

MasseyMichigan by 27.6 apart

We settle onOklahoma by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+218
FPI	+5.0	+174
Sagarin	+1.5	+115
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	+5.5	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	+175	+171	+0.6%
Spread	Michigan Wolverines +5.5	-110	-110	+0.1%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at Illinois

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Over 51

should be 52.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Duke too: market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 5.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

Duke sideIllinois side

Market

-6.0

SP+

-3.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

-9.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-5.5

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Duke ML
TOM	-6 -110	51 -112	-225	+175
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -112 51¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-6 -102	51.5 -107	-219	+181

Duke +6.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Duke to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 5.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Duke +6.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 87°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Duke, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.0 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.

Full detail

The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat

SP+Illinois by 32.9 apart

FPIIllinois by 32.8 apart

SagarinIllinois by 92.9 apart

MasseyIllinois by 23.8 apart

We settle onIllinois by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.0	-139
FPI	-3.0	-140
Sagarin	-9.0	-260
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (12 books)	-6.0	-215

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils +6.0	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	+175	+177	-0.3%
Total	Over 51.0	-112	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Under 57.5

should be 56.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 7. Nothing there.

UCF sidePittsburgh side

Market

-7.0

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-9.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-7.0

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	UCF ML
TOM	-7 -110	57.5 -110	-270	+210
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	57.5 -112 51¢	-263 71¢	—
Pinnacle	-7 -109	57 -115	-285	+228

UCF +7.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

UCF to win · +210 at TOM

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

UCF +7.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 37% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $301 available; UCF Knights ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketPittsburgh by 7the number to beat

SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.6 apart

FPIPittsburgh by 91.9 apart

MasseyPittsburgh by 2.54.5 apart

We settle onPittsburgh by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-9.0	-261
Sagarin	doesn't rate UCF
Massey	-2.5	-130
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-258

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	54.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +7.0	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+210	+207	+0.3%
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at Army

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Over 46.5

should be 47.9 · getting 1.4 pts · was 50.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3.5. Nothing there.

South Florida sideArmy side

Market

-3.5

SP+

-7.5

FPI

-2.5

Sagarin

-5.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-3.5

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	46.5 -108	-171	+141
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-175 62¢	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -106	46.5 -114	-176	+148

Army -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Army to win · -171 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 6.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 46.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls +3.5, only $49 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $419 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

The marketArmy by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Army by 7.54 apart

FPIArmy by 2.50.9 apart

SagarinArmy by 51.3 apart

MasseyArmy by 21.4 apart

We settle onArmy by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.5	-223
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-5.0	-166
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	53.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Army Black Knights -3.5	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Army Black Knights ML	-171	-145	-3.8%
Total	Over 46.5	-108	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at Minnesota

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 54.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 53.5

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. Nothing there.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side

Market

+1.0

SP+

-2.5

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

-3.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-0.5

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	+1 -112	55.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-103 49¢	-112 51¢
Pinnacle	+1 -115	55.5 -109	-109	-107

Minnesota +1.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · -105 at TOM

We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.

Not Nasty

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · Under.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State).

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat

SP+Minnesota by 2.53.4 apart

FPIMississippi State by 43.1 apart

SagarinMinnesota by 34.1 apart

MasseyMinnesota by 23.1 apart

We settle onMinnesota by 0.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.5	-129
FPI	+4.0	+154
Sagarin	-3.0	-139
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (11 books)	+1.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0	-112	-109	-0.7%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	-105	-103	-0.4%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UAB

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Over 55.5

should be 56.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 10.5. Nothing there.

UL Monroe sideUAB side

Market

-10.0

SP+

-19.5

FPI

-12.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-10.5

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	UL Monroe ML
TOM	-10 -110	55.5 -108	-375	+285
Kalshi	-10.5 +105 47¢	55.5 -112 51¢	—	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -103	56 -108	-395	+299

UAB -10.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UAB to win · -375 at TOM

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72.

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 55.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -7.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $10 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -316 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUAB by 10the number to beat

SP+UAB by 19.59.4 apart

FPIUAB by 122 apart

MasseyUAB by 2.57.4 apart

We settle onUAB by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.5	-951
FPI	-12.0	-372
Sagarin	doesn't rate UL Monroe
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	58.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UAB Blazers -10.0	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	UAB Blazers ML	-375	-316	-3.0%
Total	Over 55.5	-108	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -359 here against -316 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:45 pm

Over 57

should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3.5, we say UNLV by 4. Nothing there.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side

Market

+3.5

SP+

+13.5

FPI

+7.0

Sagarin

+3.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

+4.0

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	UNLV ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	57 -110	+145	-175
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	57.5 -107 50¢	+159 37¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -108	57 -109	+147	-175

UNLV -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UNLV to win · -175 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +6.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward North Texas).

Full detail

The marketUNLV by 3.5the number to beat

SP+UNLV by 13.59.8 apart

FPIUNLV by 73.3 apart

SagarinUNLV by 30.5 apart

MasseyNorth Texas by 2.55.8 apart

We settle onUNLV by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.5	+435
FPI	+7.0	+207
Sagarin	+3.0	+137
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	64.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UNLV Rebels -3.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	-175	-149	-3.7%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

Over 51

should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13. Nothing there.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+17.0

FPI

+11.0

Massey

-1.5

We say

+13.0

	Sam Houston spread	Total (over)	Sam Houston ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	+13.5 -102	51 -117	+400	-550
Kalshi	+13.5 -103 49¢	51.5	+426 18¢	-524 83¢
Pinnacle	+14 -112	51 -114	+425	-617

Sam Houston +13.5 · -102 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Sam Houston to win · +400 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 27% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -13.5, only $192 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTulsa by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Tulsa by 173.5 apart

FPITulsa by 112.5 apart

MasseySam Houston by 1.514.9 apart

We settle onTulsa by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+17.0	+691
FPI	+11.0	+331
Sagarin	doesn't rate Sam Houston
Massey	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5	-102	+104	-1.6%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+400	+418	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-117	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +13.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

Over 59.5

should be 60.4 · getting 0.9 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4.5, we say Navy by 5.5. Nothing there.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side

Market

+4.5

SP+

+13.5

FPI

+12.5

Sagarin

+5.0

Massey

-1.5

We say

+5.5

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Navy ML
TOM	+4.5 -110	59.5 -110	+170	-200
Kalshi	+4.5 -107 50¢	59.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4.5 -102	59 -112	+175	-211

Navy -4.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Navy to win · -200 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 68 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened +6.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNavy by 4.5the number to beat

SP+Navy by 13.59.1 apart

FPINavy by 12.58 apart

SagarinNavy by 50.7 apart

MasseyFlorida Atlantic by 1.55.8 apart

We settle onNavy by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.5	+451
FPI	+12.5	+396
Sagarin	+5.0	+174
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (12 books)	+4.5	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	63.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Navy Midshipmen -4.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Navy Midshipmen ML	-200	-178	-2.7%
Total	Over 59.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pm

Under 47.5

weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weather

Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side

Market

+2.0

SP+

-0.5

FPI

+4.0

Sagarin

+2.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

+2.0

	Air Force spread	Total (over)	Air Force ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+2 -110	47.5 -108	+110	-130
Pinnacle	+2.5 -108	47.5 -105	+109	-128

Air Force +2.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · +110 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 3.5 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, weather, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.

Opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNorth Dakota State by 2the number to beat

SP+Air Force by 0.52.7 apart

FPINorth Dakota State by 41.8 apart

SagarinNorth Dakota State by 2.50.5 apart

MasseyAir Force by 23.8 apart

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-108
FPI	+4.0	+150
Sagarin	+2.5	+130
Massey	-2.0	-121
Market (12 books)	+2.0	+115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons +2.0	-110	+105	-3.5%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	+110	+120	-2.3%
Total	Under 47.5	-112	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:15 pm

Over 54.5

should be 56.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 56.5

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 12, we say Utah by 11.5. Nothing there.

Arkansas sideUtah side

Market

-12.0

SP+

-12.0

FPI

-11.0

Sagarin

-10.5

Massey

-3.0

We say

-11.5

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-12 -110	54.5 -110	-475	+345
Kalshi	-13.5 +101 48¢	55.5	-458 81¢	+373 20¢
Pinnacle	-12 -111	55.5 -101	-501	+362

Arkansas +12.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +345 at TOM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 7.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Opened -11.5, now -12.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Utah).

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $233 available; Over 55.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUtah by 12the number to beat

SP+Utah by 120.1 apart

FPIUtah by 110.9 apart

SagarinUtah by 10.51.6 apart

MasseyUtah by 39 apart

We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-368
FPI	-11.0	-335
Sagarin	-10.5	-309
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (11 books)	-12.0	-455

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	62.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +12.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+345	+356	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.2 consensus; moneyline -455 here against -389 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 9

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 9. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side

Market

-10.5

SP+

-0.5

FPI

-2.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-9.0

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-10.5 -108	47.5 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 +101 48¢	47.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	—
Pinnacle	-10.5 -101	48 -101	-409	+307

Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $371 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $498 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Full detail

The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat

SP+Florida International by 0.510.2 apart

FPIFlorida International by 2.57.8 apart

MasseyFlorida International by 2.58.2 apart

We settle onFlorida International by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-0.5	-103
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	doesn't rate Florida International
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (12 books)	-10.5	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +10.5	-112	-130	+3.7%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+310	+257	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.7.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -335 consensus.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYU

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Arizona +7.5

should be Arizona +7.5 · was +7

▼Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Arizona sideBYU side

Market

-7.5

SP+

-6.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-7.5

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Arizona ML
TOM	-7.5 -116	48 -108	-295	+235
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -131 55¢	-306 74¢	—
Pinnacle	-7.5 -105	47.5 -113	-303	+240

Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Arizona to win · +235 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Arizona +7.5 · -104 at TOM.

the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Arizona, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +8.5. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats ML, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat

SP+BYU by 6.51.1 apart

FPIBYU by 9.52 apart

SagarinBYU by 80.7 apart

MasseyBYU by 2.55.1 apart

We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-198
FPI	-9.5	-278
Sagarin	-8.0	-240
Massey	-2.5	-128
Market (12 books)	-7.5	-282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Wildcats +7.5	-104	-118	+3.2%
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	+235	+222	+1.2%
Total	Over 48.0	-108	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 3.8.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at Kentucky

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Kentucky +10

should be Kentucky +10 · was +8.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Alabama sideKentucky side

Market

+10.0

SP+

+9.5

FPI

+14.0

Sagarin

+8.5

Massey

-1.5

We say

+10.0

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	Alabama ML
TOM	+10 -105	49.5 -110	+300	-390
Kalshi	+10.5 -116 52¢	49.5 -107 50¢	+313 23¢	-404 79¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -111	49 -111	+316	-423

Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · +300 at TOM

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Kentucky +10.0 · -105 at TOM.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +11.5. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAlabama by 10the number to beat

SP+Alabama by 9.50.7 apart

FPIAlabama by 143.8 apart

SagarinAlabama by 8.51.7 apart

MasseyKentucky by 1.511.4 apart

We settle onAlabama by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+273
FPI	+14.0	+460
Sagarin	+8.5	+245
Massey	-1.5	-116
Market (12 books)	+10.0	+314

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +10.0	-105	-109	+1.0%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+300	+287	+0.8%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

South Alabama to win

our data says 27 in 100 · +285 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

South Alabama sideTulane side

Market

-9.5

SP+

-6.0

FPI

-11.5

Sagarin

-10.5

Massey

-3.0

We say

-9.5

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-9.5 -112	49.5 -110	-375	+285
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	50.5 +105 47¢	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -103	49.5 -109	-373	+285

South Alabama +9.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

South Alabama to win · +285 at TOM. A price bet: South Alabama loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -11.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -306 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTulane by 9.5the number to beat

SP+Tulane by 63.3 apart

FPITulane by 11.51.8 apart

SagarinTulane by 10.51 apart

MasseyTulane by 36.7 apart

We settle onTulane by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.0	-193
FPI	-11.5	-342
Sagarin	-10.5	-311
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-359

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	+285	+271	+1.0%
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars +9.5	-108	-108	+0.0%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -359 here against -306 consensus.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Over 48.5

should be 49.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.

Washington State sideKansas State side

Market

-19.0

SP+

-18.5

FPI

-15.5

Sagarin

-17.5

Massey

-3.0

We say

-18.0

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-19 -110	48.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -111	48.5 -108	-1074	+636

Washington State +19.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Washington State to win · +686 at TOM

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 48.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 41% chance of rain.

Opened -16.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKansas State by 19the number to beat

SP+Kansas State by 18.50.4 apart

FPIKansas State by 15.53.7 apart

SagarinKansas State by 17.51.6 apart

MasseyKansas State by 316.2 apart

We settle onKansas State by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-18.5	-853
FPI	-15.5	-558
Sagarin	-17.5	-724
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (12 books)	-19.0	-698

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +19.0	-110	+114	-5.8%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+686	+809	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.5	-108	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.7 consensus.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma State

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Under 57

should be 55.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 60.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side

Market

+22.5

SP+

+20.5

FPI

+22.0

Sagarin

+23.5

Massey

We say

+22.0

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Oregon ML
TOM	+22.5 -104	57 -116	—	—
Pinnacle	+22.5 -109	57.5 -108	+949	-1957

Oklahoma State +22.5 · -104 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oklahoma State to win · +1052 at TOM

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.9 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 57.0 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F, 37% chance of rain.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat

SP+Oregon by 20.51.9 apart

FPIOregon by 220.4 apart

SagarinOregon by 23.51.1 apart

Masseya pick'em22.7 apart

We settle onOregon by 2230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+20.5	+1122
FPI	+22.0	+1383
Sagarin	+23.5	+1721
Massey	pk	-102
Market (12 books)	+22.5	+1036

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5	-104	+131	-7.7%
Moneyline	Oklahoma State Cowboys ML	+1052	+1397	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-104	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 19.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 19.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 19.5.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side

Market

-19.5

SP+

-21.0

FPI

-17.5

Sagarin

-21.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-19.5

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-19.5 -108	50.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 +109 46¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-19.5 -105	50.5 -103	-1150	+667

Old Dominion +19.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Old Dominion to win · +709 at TOM

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F, 34% chance of rain.

Opened -14.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 4.9 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketVirginia Tech by 19.5the number to beat

SP+Virginia Tech by 211.3 apart

FPIVirginia Tech by 17.51.9 apart

SagarinVirginia Tech by 211.7 apart

MasseyVirginia Tech by 2.517 apart

We settle onVirginia Tech by 19.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-21.0	-1153
FPI	-17.5	-750
Sagarin	-21.0	-1217
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (12 books)	-19.5	-728

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +19.5	-112	+128	-8.9%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+709	+952	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at Temple

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

Over 49.5

should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 pts

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.

Penn State sideTemple side

Market

+24.0

SP+

+22.5

FPI

+22.0

Sagarin

+26.0

Massey

-0.5

We say

+23.5

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Penn State ML
TOM	+24 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+23.5 -102	49.5 -114	+1071	-2374

Temple +24.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Temple to win · +1300 at TOM

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketPenn State by 24the number to beat

SP+Penn State by 22.51.5 apart

FPIPenn State by 221.8 apart

SagarinPenn State by 261.8 apart

MasseyTemple by 0.524.4 apart

We settle onPenn State by 23.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+22.5	+1469
FPI	+22.0	+1411
Sagarin	+26.0	+2418
Massey	-0.5	-105
Market (12 books)	+24.0	+1206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +24.0	-110	+137	-10.3%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+1300	+1740	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.7 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at Purdue

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

No bet

market says Wake Forest by 3, our data says Wake Forest by 2

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 3, we say Wake Forest by 2. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side

Market

+3.0

SP+

-2.0

FPI

+3.5

Sagarin

Massey

-2.0

We say

+2.0

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3 -111	49 -116	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5	49.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+3 -112	50 -107	+129	-152

Purdue +3.0 · -111 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +125 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -116 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.

Opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $4 available; Under 49.5, only $308 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketWake Forest by 3the number to beat

SP+Purdue by 24.8 apart

FPIWake Forest by 3.50.3 apart

Sagarina pick'em2.8 apart

MasseyPurdue by 24.9 apart

We settle onWake Forest by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.0	-121
FPI	+3.5	+141
Sagarin	pk	+102
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +3.0	-111	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+125	+126	-0.2%
Total	Over 49.0	-116	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at Georgia

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:45 am

No bet

market says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 41

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side

Market

-41.0

SP+

-44.0

FPI

-38.5

Sagarin

-42.0

Massey

-4.5

We say

-41.0

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Western Kentucky ML
TOM	-41 -110	55.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-40.5 -117	55.5 -109	—	—

Western Kentucky +41.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Over 55.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F, 46% chance of rain.

Opened -35.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 5.1 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $209 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketGeorgia by 41the number to beat

SP+Georgia by 443 apart

FPIGeorgia by 38.52.3 apart

SagarinGeorgia by 421 apart

MasseyGeorgia by 4.536.7 apart

We settle onGeorgia by 4121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-44.0	-63883
FPI	-38.5	-22538
Sagarin	-42.0	-42502
Massey	-4.5	-157
Market (11 books)	-41.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0	-110	-164	+9.7%
Total	Over 55.5	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.1 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at Syracuse

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No bet

market says Syracuse by 3.5, our data says Syracuse by 4

▼Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

California sideSyracuse side

Market

-3.5

SP+

-8.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-1.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-4.0

	Syracuse spread	Total (over)	Syracuse ML	California ML
TOM	-3.5 +100	57 -110	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	56.5 -112 51¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +100	56 -117	-169	+143

Syracuse -3.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Syracuse to win · -165 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse, now Not Nasty.

Opened +2.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Full detail

The marketSyracuse by 3.5the number to beat

SP+Syracuse by 8.54.8 apart

FPISyracuse by 8.55.2 apart

SagarinSyracuse by 1.52.2 apart

MasseySyracuse by 2.51.1 apart

We settle onSyracuse by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-244
FPI	-8.5	-256
Sagarin	-1.5	-114
Massey	-2.5	-129
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Syracuse Orange -3.5	+100	+105	-1.3%
Moneyline	Syracuse Orange ML	-165	-151	-2.1%
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan State

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No bet

market says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side

Market

-17.0

SP+

-19.0

FPI

-19.0

Sagarin

-21.0

Massey

-3.5

We say

-17.5

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-17 -113	49.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -106	49.5 -104	-957	+587

Michigan State -17.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · -924 at TOM

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 90, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 81°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

The marketMichigan State by 17the number to beat

SP+Michigan State by 191.8 apart

FPIMichigan State by 192 apart

SagarinMichigan State by 214.2 apart

MasseyMichigan State by 3.513.5 apart

We settle onMichigan State by 17.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.0	-877
FPI	-19.0	-902
Sagarin	-21.0	-1227
Massey	-3.5	-144
Market (12 books)	-17.0	-627

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans -17.0	-113	-127	+2.9%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	-924	-728	priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConn

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No bet

market says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 12.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 12.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Maryland sideUConn side

Market

+13.5

SP+

+13.0

FPI

+8.0

Sagarin

+13.5

Massey

-1.5

We say

+12.5

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Maryland ML
TOM	+13.5 -115	52.5 -110	+355	-485
Kalshi	+11.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -103 49¢	+398 19¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -110	52 -117	+349	-480

UConn +13.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +355 at TOM

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UConn).

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat

SP+Maryland by 130.3 apart

FPIMaryland by 85.3 apart

SagarinMaryland by 13.50.1 apart

MasseyUConn by 1.515.1 apart

We settle onMaryland by 12.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+13.0	+430
FPI	+8.0	+241
Sagarin	+13.5	+443
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (12 books)	+13.5	+371

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +13.5	-115	-103	-2.8%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+355	+389	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre Dame

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 54.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 52.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.

Rice sideNotre Dame side

Market

-44.5

SP+

-39.5

FPI

-41.5

Sagarin

-47.5

Massey

-4.5

We say

-43.5

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Rice ML
TOM	-44.5 -110	55.5 -116	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-44.5 -118	56 -107	—	—

Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 64 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 55.5 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -104 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat

SP+Notre Dame by 39.55.1 apart

FPINotre Dame by 41.53.2 apart

SagarinNotre Dame by 47.53.1 apart

MasseyNotre Dame by 4.539.9 apart

We settle onNotre Dame by 43.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-39.5	-25564
FPI	-41.5	-37206
Sagarin	-47.5	-136447
Massey	-4.5	-163
Market (11 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +44.5	-110	-179	+11.7%
Total	Under 55.5	-104	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas State

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No bet

market says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1. Less than a point isn't an edge.

UTSA sideTexas State side

Market

-1.5

SP+

+8.5

FPI

+2.0

Sagarin

+1.5

Massey

-1.5

We say

-1.0

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-1.5 -110	66.5 -115	-125	+105
Pinnacle	-1.5 -107	66.5 -113	-117	+101

UTSA +1.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UTSA to win · +105 at TOM

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 66.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas State by 1.5the number to beat

SP+UTSA by 8.510 apart

FPIUTSA by 23.4 apart

SagarinUTSA by 1.53.2 apart

MasseyTexas State by 1.50.2 apart

We settle onTexas State by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.5	+249
FPI	+2.0	+123
Sagarin	+1.5	+119
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	66.5	71.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	UTSA Roadrunners +1.5	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	UTSA Roadrunners ML	+105	+109	-0.9%
Total	Over 66.5	-115	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at Washington

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

Under 56

should be 54.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.

Utah State sideWashington side

Market

-26.5

SP+

-25.5

FPI

-22.0

Sagarin

-34.5

Massey

-4.0

We say

-25.5

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-26.5 -110	56 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-26.5 -108	55.5 -109	—	+1431

Utah State +26.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Utah State to win · +1600 at TOM

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 41% chance of rain.

Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketWashington by 26.5the number to beat

SP+Washington by 25.50.8 apart

FPIWashington by 224.3 apart

SagarinWashington by 34.58 apart

MasseyWashington by 422.5 apart

We settle onWashington by 25.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.5	-2370
FPI	-22.0	-1398
Sagarin	-34.5	-10280
Massey	-4.0	-153
Market (12 books)	-26.5	-1537

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +26.5	-110	+141	-10.8%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1600	+2381	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-115	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at Vanderbilt

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:15 pm

Over 54

should be 55.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side

Market

-21.0

SP+

-22.0

FPI

-14.5

Sagarin

-25.0

Massey

-4.0

We say

-20.5

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Delaware ML
TOM	-21 -105	54 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5	-1236 92¢	+944 9¢
Pinnacle	-21 -108	54.5 -114	-1544	+814

Delaware +21.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 45 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Delaware to win · +836 at TOM

We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 54.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F, 30% chance of rain.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $320 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketVanderbilt by 21the number to beat

SP+Vanderbilt by 220.9 apart

FPIVanderbilt by 14.56.5 apart

SagarinVanderbilt by 254 apart

MasseyVanderbilt by 417.2 apart

We settle onVanderbilt by 20.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.0	-1348
FPI	-14.5	-507
Sagarin	-25.0	-2136
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-21.0	-865

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Delaware Blue Hens +21.0	-115	+125	-9.0%
Moneyline	Delaware Blue Hens ML	+836	+1093	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-115	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No bet

market says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side

Market

-2.5

SP+

+7.0

FPI

-2.5

Sagarin

+1.0

Massey

-2.5

We say

-2.0

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	51 -110	-140	+120
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	50.5 -109	-136	+116

Jacksonville State +2.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jacksonville State to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 38% chance of rain.

Opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ohio).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat

SP+Jacksonville State by 79.7 apart

FPIOhio by 2.50.2 apart

SagarinJacksonville State by 13.5 apart

MasseyOhio by 2.50.1 apart

We settle onOhio by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.0	+216
FPI	-2.5	-127
Sagarin	+1.0	+111
Massey	-2.5	-128
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5	-103	+104	-1.7%
Moneyline	Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML	+120	+125	-1.0%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

Under 51.5

should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 52.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 28.5.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side

Market

-28.5

SP+

-27.0

FPI

-28.5

Sagarin

-32.0

Massey

-4.0

We say

-28.5

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-28.5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	51.5 -107 50¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-29 -106	52 -102	—	—

Bowling Green +28.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +2296 at TOM

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. That's 6.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 25% chance of rain.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.9 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat

SP+Nebraska by 271.4 apart

FPINebraska by 28.50.2 apart

SagarinNebraska by 323.5 apart

MasseyNebraska by 424.6 apart

We settle onNebraska by 28.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-27.0	-2949
FPI	-28.5	-3564
Sagarin	-32.0	-6603
Massey	-4.0	-151
Market (12 books)	-28.5	-2071

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +28.5	-105	+145	-10.3%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+2296	+3591	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.9 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No bet

market says Kennesaw State by 9, our data says Kennesaw State by 9

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side

Market

-9.0

SP+

-17.5

FPI

-9.5

Sagarin

-8.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

-9.0

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-9 -110	54.5 -115	-335	+260
Pinnacle	-9 -112	54 -116	-365	+280

Georgia State +9.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Georgia State to win · +260 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail

The marketKennesaw State by 9the number to beat

SP+Kennesaw State by 17.58.5 apart

FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.3 apart

SagarinKennesaw State by 8.50.6 apart

MasseyKennesaw State by 26.8 apart

We settle onKennesaw State by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.5	-738
FPI	-9.5	-274
Sagarin	-8.5	-245
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-321

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	55.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +9.0	-110	-110	-0.0%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+260	+262	-0.2%
Total	Over 54.5	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No bet

market says Tennessee by 12.5, our data says Tennessee by 11.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side

Market

+12.5

SP+

+16.0

FPI

+9.5

Sagarin

+8.5

Massey

-1.5

We say

+11.5

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+12.5 -110	55 -115	+350	-480
Kalshi	+11.5 +101 48¢	55.5 -107 50¢	+398 19¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+12.5 -103	55 -115	+383	-538

Georgia Tech +12.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · +350 at TOM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech).

Full detail

The marketTennessee by 12.5the number to beat

SP+Tennessee by 163.5 apart

FPITennessee by 9.52.9 apart

SagarinTennessee by 8.54.2 apart

MasseyGeorgia Tech by 1.513.8 apart

We settle onTennessee by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+16.0	+608
FPI	+9.5	+283
Sagarin	+8.5	+244
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (12 books)	+12.5	+366

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	56.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	+350	+349	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 55.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

Under 56.5

should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side

Market

-20.5

SP+

-13.0

FPI

-16.5

Sagarin

-25.5

Massey

-3.0

We say

-19.5

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	56.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-20.5 -110	55.5 -115	-1497	+797

Georgia Southern +20.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Georgia Southern to win · +850 at TOM

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.5 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

The marketClemson by 20.5the number to beat

SP+Clemson by 137.3 apart

FPIClemson by 16.54 apart

SagarinClemson by 25.55.2 apart

MasseyClemson by 317.3 apart

We settle onClemson by 19.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.0	-430
FPI	-16.5	-652
Sagarin	-25.5	-2367
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (12 books)	-20.5	-865

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	52.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5	-110	+118	-6.5%
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+850	+940	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.5	-112	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

Under 55.5

should be 53.5 · getting 2 pts

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 36.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side

Market

-36.0

SP+

-29.5

FPI

-32.5

Sagarin

-34.0

Massey

-3.5

We say

-34.5

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Louisiana Tech ML
TOM	-36 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	55.5	—	—
Pinnacle	-35 -116	56 -112	—	—

Louisiana Tech +36.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +4446 at TOM

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -31.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward LSU).

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $431 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

Full detail

The marketLSU by 36the number to beat

SP+LSU by 29.56.7 apart

FPILSU by 32.53.7 apart

SagarinLSU by 341.9 apart

MasseyLSU by 3.532.3 apart

We settle onLSU by 34.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-29.5	-4206
FPI	-32.5	-6950
Sagarin	-34.0	-9537
Massey	-3.5	-148
Market (12 books)	-36.0	-4536

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +36.0	-110	+135	-9.7%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+4446	+10163	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.2 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

No bet

market says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ohio State sideTexas side

Market

-1.5

SP+

+2.5

FPI

-2.5

Sagarin

+1.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-1.0

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	Ohio State ML
TOM	-1.5 -117	49 -110	-127	+107
Pinnacle	-1.5 -112	48.5 -114	-124	+106

Ohio State +1.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ohio State to win · +107 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.

Opened -0.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas by 1.5the number to beat

SP+Ohio State by 2.53.9 apart

FPITexas by 2.51 apart

SagarinOhio State by 12.3 apart

MasseyTexas by 20.3 apart

We settle onTexas by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+129
FPI	-2.5	-130
Sagarin	+1.0	+109
Massey	-2.0	-120
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5	-103	+103	-1.4%
Moneyline	Ohio State Buckeyes ML	+107	+113	-1.4%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

Under 53.5

should be 52.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side

Market

+26.5

SP+

+23.5

FPI

+23.5

Sagarin

+27.5

Massey

-1.0

We say

+26.0

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	Texas Tech ML
TOM	+26.5 -110	53.5 -117	—	—
Pinnacle	+27 -111	53.5 -114	+1333	—

Oregon State +26.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Oregon State to win · +1500 at TOM

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 53.5 · -103 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +27.5, now +27.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Oregon State).

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

Full detail

The marketTexas Tech by 26.5the number to beat

SP+Texas Tech by 23.53 apart

FPITexas Tech by 23.53.1 apart

SagarinTexas Tech by 27.50.9 apart

MasseyOregon State by 127.3 apart

We settle onTexas Tech by 2621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.5	+1701
FPI	+23.5	+1669
Sagarin	+27.5	+3118
Massey	-1.0	-109
Market (12 books)	+26.5	+1466

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers +26.5	-110	+143	-11.2%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	+1500	+2428	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-103	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +26.5 here against +26.8 consensus.

The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:45 pm

Under 57

should be 53.9 · getting 3.1 pts · was 52.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side

Market

-33.0

SP+

-24.0

FPI

-16.0

Sagarin

-33.5

Massey

-4.0

We say

-29.0

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-33 -110	57 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	-3476 97¢	—
Pinnacle	-33.5 -112	57.5 -107	—	—

Southern Miss +33.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Southern Miss to win · +2728 at TOM

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 1 off. That's 10.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 57.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -29.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketAuburn by 33the number to beat

SP+Auburn by 248.9 apart

FPIAuburn by 1617 apart

SagarinAuburn by 33.50.7 apart

MasseyAuburn by 429.2 apart

We settle onAuburn by 2930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.0	-1859
FPI	-16.0	-609
Sagarin	-33.5	-8899
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-33.0	-2861

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+2728	+4081	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-108	-138	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 4.7.

TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.

The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:45 pm

No bet

market says Ole Miss by 47.5, our data says Ole Miss by 45.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side

Market

-47.5

SP+

-41.5

FPI

-35.0

Sagarin

-49.0

Massey

-5.0

We say

-45.5

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-47.5 -110	61 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	61.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-47.5 -108	61.5 -110	—	—

Charlotte +47.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 65 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +9950 at TOM

We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 61.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F, 22% chance of rain.

Opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.5 consensus.

Full detail

The marketOle Miss by 47.5the number to beat

SP+Ole Miss by 41.56 apart

FPIOle Miss by 3512.6 apart

SagarinOle Miss by 491.4 apart

MasseyOle Miss by 542.2 apart

We settle onOle Miss by 45.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-41.5	-38550
FPI	-35.0	-11072
Sagarin	-49.0	-180764
Massey	-5.0	-175
Market (10 books)	-47.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.0	60.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +47.5	-110	-189	+13.0%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+9950	+88130	priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 61.0	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.5 consensus.

The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:30 pm

No bet

market says Fresno State by 18, our data says Fresno State by 16.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side

Market

-18.0

SP+

-13.5

FPI

-13.5

Sagarin

-13.0

Massey

-3.0

We say

-16.5

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-18 -110	45 -107	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -103	45 -113	-1068	+634

Sacramento State +18.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +668 at TOM

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

Full detail

The marketFresno State by 18the number to beat

SP+Fresno State by 13.54.3 apart

FPIFresno State by 13.54.4 apart

SagarinFresno State by 135.1 apart

MasseyFresno State by 314.9 apart

We settle onFresno State by 16.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.5	-457
FPI	-13.5	-451
Sagarin	-13.0	-416
Massey	-3.0	-139
Market (12 books)	-18.0	-688

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +18.0	-110	+102	-2.8%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+668	+655	priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-107	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC

CFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pm

No bet

market says USC by 30.5, our data says USC by 29

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 30.5.

Louisiana sideUSC side

Market

-30.5

SP+

-25.5

FPI

-26.5

Massey

-4.0

We say

-29.0

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-30.5 -114	59.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	59.5 -107 50¢	—	+3021 3¢
Pinnacle	-31 -107	60 -103	—	—

Louisiana +30.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana to win · +3000 at TOM

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward USC).

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

Full detail

The marketUSC by 30.5the number to beat

SP+USC by 25.54.9 apart

FPIUSC by 26.54.1 apart

MasseyUSC by 426.7 apart

We settle onUSC by 2930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.5	-2334
FPI	-26.5	-2649
Sagarin	doesn't rate Louisiana
Massey	-4.0	-149
Market (12 books)	-30.5	-2770

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	61.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5	-106	+139	-9.5%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+3000	+4024	priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.5	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -30.5 here against -30.9 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-35.5	-4086

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	—

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at Indiana

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Howard Bison, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Howard ML
Kalshi	—	64.5 -116 52¢	—	—

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)	-55.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	64.5	—

Howard Bison is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent State

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wofford Terriers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -14.5, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Wofford). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-13.0	-482

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-07 09:34.

Wofford Terriers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Colgate Raiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Colgate ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1684 94¢	—

Opened -26.5, now -25.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Colgate).

Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $355 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-25.0	-1278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-07 09:34.

Colgate Raiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Holy Cross Crusaders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	Holy Cross ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢

Opened -33.0, now -31.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-31.5	-2453

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Holy Cross Crusaders since 09-07 09:34.

Holy Cross Crusaders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West Virginia

CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover UT Martin Skyhawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -34.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward West Virginia).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-39.5	-4570

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 4.0.

UT Martin Skyhawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball State

CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -15.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-15.5	-623

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at Akron

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Robert Morris Colonials, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Robert Morris ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $23 available; Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-28.5	-2111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	—

Robert Morris Colonials is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut Blue at Toledo

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Central Connecticut Blue Devils, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-35.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Central Connecticut Blue Devils is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at Colorado

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Weber State Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-34.0	-2475

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Weber State Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James Madison

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Wagner Seahawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	James Madison spread	Total (over)	James Madison ML	Wagner ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-45.5	-10080

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Line move: total has moved up 1.2.

Wagner Seahawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at Massachusetts

CFB sat 12 sep, 12:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Sacred Heart Pioneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Sacred Heart ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1684 94¢	—

Opened -25.0, now -23.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Sacred Heart).

Kalshi thin: Sacred Heart Pioneers ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-23.0	-1058

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sacred Heart Pioneers since 09-07 09:34; total has moved down 0.5.

Sacred Heart Pioneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at Troy

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Alabama State Hornets, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-22.5	-1068

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Alabama State Hornets is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New Mexico

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	Mercyhurst ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $14 available; Under 53.5, only $54 available; Mercyhurst Lakers ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	—

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at Wyoming

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Northern Colorado Bears, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Northern Colorado ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

Kalshi thin: Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $123 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-23.5	-1345

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	—

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

Northern Colorado Bears is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UC Davis Aggies at SMU MustangsUC Davis at SMU

CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover UC Davis Aggies, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	UC Davis ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	—

Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $56 available; Under 58.5, only $57 available; UC Davis Aggies ML, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-24.5	-1248

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	—

UC Davis Aggies is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell Fighting at Florida

CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Campbell Fighting Camels, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Campbell Fighting ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Opened -49.5, now -50.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Florida).

Kalshi thin: Over 66.5, only $52 available; Under 66.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-50.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	67.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-07 09:34; total has moved up 0.7.

Campbell Fighting Camels is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb Runnin at Liberty

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Gardner-Webb Runnin ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Opened -27.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin).

Kalshi thin: Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $447 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-26.5	-1604

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-07 09:34.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan

CFB sat 12 sep, 3:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Monmouth Hawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Monmouth ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—

Opened -27.5, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Monmouth).

Kalshi thin: Monmouth Hawks ML, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-26.0	-1328

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Monmouth Hawks since 09-07 09:34.

Monmouth Hawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Western Carolina Catamounts, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Western Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $312 available; Under 60.5, only $353 available; Western Carolina Catamounts ML, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)	-36.5	-3570

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Western Carolina Catamounts is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern Utah Thunderbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-20.5	-966

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

Southern Utah Thunderbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern University at Houston

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Southern University Jaguars, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	Southern University ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $54 available; Under 59.5, only $238 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)	-51.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Southern University Jaguars is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern Illinois

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Illinois State Redbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	+3.5	+156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	—

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Illinois State Redbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri State

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Lindenwood Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -21.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-20.5	-1036

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 0.5.

Lindenwood Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Towson Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Towson ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $56 available; Under 54.5, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-43.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Towson Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at Wisconsin

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:15 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Western Illinois Leathernecks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Western Illinois ML
Kalshi	—	49.5 -116 52¢	—	—

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-36.5	-3570

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Western Illinois Leathernecks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina

CFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Fordham Rams, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Fordham ML
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	—

Kalshi thin: Fordham Rams ML, only $482 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-31.5	-2315

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Fordham Rams is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Prairie View A&M Panthers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Prairie View A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $57 available; Under 55.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-38.0	-5589

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

Prairie View A&M Panthers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling State at TCU

CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Grambling State Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -44.5, now -43.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Grambling State).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-43.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Grambling State Tigers since 09-07 09:34.

Grambling State Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San Jose State

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)	-20.5	-1100

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP

CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Texas Southern Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Texas Southern ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners ML, only $26 available; Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)	-27.0	-1774

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	—

Texas Southern Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada

CFB sat 12 sep, 7:30 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Montana State Bobcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Nevada).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (5 books)	+4.0	+172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-07 09:34; total has moved down 0.5.

Montana State Bobcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii Rainbow

CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward New Mexico State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-06 12:32; total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5.

GameThe call

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Colts +3.5

should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 pts

Damn Near Nasty

Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

Ravens sideColts side

Market

+3.5

nfelo

+0.5

FPI

+2.0

Sagarin

+3.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

+3.0

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	47.5 -121 53¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -113	47.5 -116	+157	-180

Colts +3.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +152

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Colts +3.5 · -110.

A play at +4.0 or better.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Carson Towt (TE, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens).

Full detail

The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart

FPIRavens by 21.7 apart

SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart

MasseyColts by 25.3 apart

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+109
FPI	+2.0	+124
Sagarin	+3.0	+148
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	+3.5	+163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +3.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+152	+144	+1.2%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Browns +9

should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8

A Little Nasty · Browns

A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

Browns sideJaguars side

Market

-9.0

nfelo

-5.5

FPI

-8.5

Sagarin

-9.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-8.0

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Browns ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -121 53¢	40.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 +101	40.5 -112	-391	+316

Browns +9.0 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Browns to win · +320

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Browns +9.0 · -110.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.

Opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Kendrick Green (G, Browns), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 3 more.

Full detail

The marketJaguars by 9the number to beat

nfeloJaguars by 5.53.8 apart

FPIJaguars by 8.50.6 apart

SagarinJaguars by 9.50.5 apart

MasseyJaguars by 2.56.7 apart

We settle onJaguars by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-192
FPI	-8.5	-287
Sagarin	-9.5	-334
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-337

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-110	-128	+3.7%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+320	+278	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers

NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm

Under 47

should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Cardinals too: market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9, but at -110 that's too thin.

Cardinals sideChargers side

Market

-10.0

nfelo

-4.0

FPI

-10.5

Sagarin

-14.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-9.0

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-490 82¢	+398 19¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 +116	47 -111	-480	+376

Cardinals +10.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +393

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 47.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Cardinals +10.0 · -110.

A play at +10.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketChargers by 10the number to beat

nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart

FPIChargers by 10.50.2 apart

SagarinChargers by 143.9 apart

MasseyChargers by 27.8 apart

We settle onChargers by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-165
FPI	-10.5	-368
Sagarin	-14.0	-618
Massey	-2.0	-131
Market (12 books)	-10.0	-400

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +10.0	-110	-123	+2.9%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+393	+317	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants

NFL sun 13 sep, 5:20 pm

Over 48

should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2. Nothing there.

Cowboys sideGiants side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

-1.0

FPI

+1.5

Sagarin

+2.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

+2.0

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	+2.5	47.5 -116 52¢	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +110	47.5 -116	+140	-159

Giants +2.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · +138

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 50. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 48.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Giants to win · +138. A price bet: Giants loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants +2.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Matt Hennessy (C, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Full detail

The marketCowboys by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloGiants by 13.7 apart

FPICowboys by 1.51.3 apart

SagarinCowboys by 20.5 apart

MasseyGiants by 24.7 apart

We settle onCowboys by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-113
FPI	+1.5	+118
Sagarin	+2.0	+131
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+138	+130	+1.4%
Spread	New York Giants +2.5	-110	+105	-3.6%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Over 39

should be 41.2 · getting 2 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.

Jets sideTitans side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-3.0

FPI

-2.5

Sagarin

-4.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

-1.5

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Jets ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	39.5 -103 49¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-1 -107	39 -111	-117	+104

Titans -1.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · -124

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.0 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 6.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 39.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Titans -1.0 · -110. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), VJ Payne (S, Jets), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketTitans by 1the number to beat

nfeloTitans by 31.9 apart

FPITitans by 2.51.7 apart

SagarinTitans by 4.53.4 apart

MasseyTitans by 21.1 apart

We settle onTitans by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-2.5	-139
Sagarin	-4.5	-171
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	45.7

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans -1.0	-110	-114	+1.0%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	-124	-121	-0.6%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-131	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Under 47.5

should be 46.6 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.

Bears sidePanthers side

Market

+2.5

nfelo

+1.0

FPI

+2.0

Sagarin

+2.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

+2.5

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Bears ML
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	46.5 -121 53¢	+134 41¢	-161 60¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +114	47.5 +103	+145	-165

Panthers +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +140

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 44. That's 3.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Panthers to win · +140. A price bet: Panthers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Dallis Flowers (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat

nfeloBears by 11.9 apart

FPIBears by 20.7 apart

SagarinBears by 20.6 apart

MasseyPanthers by 24.5 apart

We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+110
FPI	+2.0	+127
Sagarin	+2.0	+129
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+150

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+140	+135	+1.0%
Spread	Carolina Panthers +2.5	-110	+109	-4.4%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Under 49.5

should be 48.8 · getting 0.8 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.

Saints sideLions side

Market

-7.0

nfelo

-6.0

FPI

-7.5

Sagarin

-7.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-7.0

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Saints ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7 -105	49.5 -111	-321	+267

Saints +7.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +260

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -110

Massey projects 46. That's 3.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Saints to win · +260. A price bet: Saints loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Also out: Michael Niese (G, Lions), Dillon Radunz (G, Saints), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketLions by 7the number to beat

nfeloLions by 60.8 apart

FPILions by 7.50.5 apart

SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart

MasseyLions by 2.54.6 apart

We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-214
FPI	-7.5	-252
Sagarin	-7.5	-260
Massey	-2.5	-134
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-276

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+260	+236	+2.0%
Spread	New Orleans Saints +7.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Over 45

should be 45.8 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Over

A Little Nasty, Over 45.0. Massey say over by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

Bills sideTexans side

Market

+1.0

nfelo

-0.5

FPI

+0.5

Sagarin

Massey

-2.0

We say

+0.5

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bills ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -121 53¢	-103 49¢	-116 52¢
Pinnacle	+1 -106	45 -106	+101	-114

Texans +1.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Texans to win · +100

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 48. That's 3.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Over 45.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 2 more.

Full detail

The marketBills by 1the number to beat

nfeloTexans by 0.51.6 apart

FPIBills by 0.50.6 apart

Sagarina pick'em1 apart

MasseyTexans by 23 apart

We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-0.5	-107
FPI	+0.5	+105
Sagarin	pk	+100
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	+1.0	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans +1.0	-110	+102	-2.8%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	+100	+108	-1.9%
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings

NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm

Under 46

should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.

Packers sideVikings side

Market

-1.0

nfelo

-4.5

FPI

+1.0

Sagarin

+0.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

-1.0

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Packers ML
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -107 50¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-1 -113	46 -111	-123	+109

Packers +1.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · +102

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 43. That's 3.6 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.

Full detail

The marketVikings by 1the number to beat

nfeloVikings by 4.53.2 apart

FPIPackers by 12.2 apart

SagarinPackers by 0.51.7 apart

MasseyVikings by 20.9 apart

We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-169
FPI	+1.0	+114
Sagarin	+0.5	+106
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-1.0	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers +1.0	-110	+107	-4.2%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	+102	+114	-2.6%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Buccaneers to win

our data says 39 in 100 · +171 · a price bet, they lose more often than not

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side

Market

-4.0

nfelo

-2.5

FPI

-4.0

Sagarin

-4.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-4.0

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Buccaneers ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -116 52¢	-208 66¢	+166 36¢
Pinnacle	-4 -103	51 +104	-202	+175

Buccaneers +4.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +171

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110

Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Buccaneers to win · +171. A price bet: Buccaneers loses more often than not, the payout is what's mispriced.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketBengals by 4the number to beat

nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart

FPIBengals by 40.1 apart

SagarinBengals by 40.3 apart

MasseyBengals by 22 apart

We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.0	-159
Sagarin	-4.0	-167
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-184

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+171	+158	+1.8%
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0	-110	-115	+1.2%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders

NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm

Dolphins +3.5

should be Dolphins +3.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Dolphins sideRaiders side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-1.5

FPI

-3.5

Sagarin

-5.5

Massey

-2.0

We say

-3.5

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	-3.5	40.5 -116 52¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -104	40.5 -110	-188	+164

Dolphins +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Dolphins to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -110

Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Dolphins +3.5 · -110.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders -3.5, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart

FPIRaiders by 3.50 apart

SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart

MasseyRaiders by 21.6 apart

We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.5	-121
FPI	-3.5	-153
Sagarin	-5.5	-202
Massey	-2.0	-125
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +3.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+155	+150	+0.8%
Total	Over 40.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers

NFL sun 13 sep, 10:00 am

Falcons +3.5

should be Falcons +3.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side

Market

-3.5

nfelo

-3.0

FPI

-3.5

Sagarin

-4.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-3.5

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -103 49¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +101	42.5 -105	-181	+159

Falcons +3.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +155

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Falcons +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, but the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.

A play at +4.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +3.5, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out, already in the ratings: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.

Also out: Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Storm Norton (OT, Falcons) and 3 more.

Full detail

The marketSteelers by 3.5the number to beat

nfeloSteelers by 30.6 apart

FPISteelers by 3.50.2 apart

SagarinSteelers by 40.6 apart

MasseySteelers by 21.3 apart

We settle onSteelers by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-143
FPI	-3.5	-149
Sagarin	-4.0	-164
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (12 books)	-3.5	-165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +3.5	-110	-114	+0.8%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+155	+152	+0.5%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles

NFL sun 13 sep, 1:25 pm

No bet

market says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5

Not Nasty

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Commanders sideEagles side

Market

-4.5

nfelo

-4.0

FPI

-5.5

Sagarin

-6.5

Massey

-2.5

We say

-4.5

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Commanders ML
Kalshi	-5.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -103 49¢	-229 68¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -109	44.5 -102	-230	+198

Eagles -4.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · -230

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean.

No lean

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain.

Opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Commanders).

Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 3 more.

Full detail

The marketEagles by 4.5the number to beat

nfeloEagles by 40.7 apart

FPIEagles by 5.50.8 apart

SagarinEagles by 6.51.7 apart

MasseyEagles by 2.52.2 apart

We settle onEagles by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-162
FPI	-5.5	-196
Sagarin	-6.5	-218
Massey	-2.5	-135
Market (12 books)	-4.5	-204

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles -4.5	-110	+109	-4.4%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	-230	-177	-5.8%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Washington Commanders since 09-06 15:31.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs

NFL mon 14 sep, 5:15 pm

Under 43

should be 42.2 · getting 0.9 pts

A Little Nasty · Under

A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

Broncos sideChiefs side

Market

-3.0

nfelo

-1.0

FPI

-3.0

Sagarin

-3.0

Massey

-2.0

We say

-2.5

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	43.5 -107 50¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-3 +107	43 -114	-145	+128

Broncos +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +124

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110

Massey projects 40. That's 3.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Half Nasty (betting anyway)

the Under 43.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 49% chance of rain.

QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Drew Sanders (LB, Broncos) and 1 more.

Full detail

The marketChiefs by 3the number to beat

nfeloChiefs by 11.9 apart

FPIChiefs by 30.4 apart

SagarinChiefs by 30.1 apart

MasseyChiefs by 20.8 apart

We settle onChiefs by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	-3.0	-146
Sagarin	-3.0	-141
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-133

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Our number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +3.0	-110	-106	-0.8%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+124	+138	-2.5%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Record7 bets · 3-4 · -1.2u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How it worksand how the model is doing

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Sunday September 6

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostOle Miss Rebels -7.0Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels38-41-1.00

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units

LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00

WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93

LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00

WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95

LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00

WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Scoreboard

Loading scores...

How Monday 7 September went

Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.

What we said	Right-wrong	Rate
Ruled out by the guardrails	0-0-1	—

Game by game

PushFlorida State SeminolesSMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoleswon by 3Ruled out by the guardrails

How it's going

3-4Record

-1.2Units

-17.3%ROI

10Open

It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.01Sides: pts vs close, 17 bets, beat it 35%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

We read 101 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 2 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.

What's changed since 3:20 pm

NewAppalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates is now a pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5 at -110.
NewBuffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers is now a pick: Buffalo Bulls +10.5 at -112.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 5.0UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineerswith the public
→ 4.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
→ 3.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
→ 2.0Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass Minutementoward Sacred Heart Pioneersagainst the public
→ 1.9Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owlstoward Florida Atlantic Owlsagainst the public
→ 1.5UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Pantherstoward UCF Knightsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 4 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 82477 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.81 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	38	2.95
BetOnline.ag	72	0.96
LowVig.ag	69	0.92
DraftKings	78	0.89
BetMGM	69	0.87
FanDuel	106	0.86
BetRivers	102	0.71
MyBookie.ag	67	0.70
BetUS	69	0.65
Bovada	70	0.63
TOM	68	0.60
Caesars	73	0.59
Pinnacle	69	0.53
Fanatics	102	0.52

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
FPI NFL updated yesterday
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated today
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
nfelo updated yesterday

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Tue Sep 8

1. Appalachian State Mountaineers +7.5  -110
   [College] Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates, sat 12 sep, 9:00 am
   we make it -132, edge +4%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.