Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Jets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Same opinion as a Nasty Pick, one thing short.
Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Saints at Lions Under 50 the strongest at 2.4% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one.
Since the last build, Falcons at Steelers slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Small stake, and it can lose.
Buck
Today
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL 12:00pmTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetUS | PK -120 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 39 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 38.5 -112 | -118 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 38.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -112 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | -102 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -146 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -140 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | -106 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans PK | -116 | -111 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -119 | -111 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL 12:00pmOver 41should be 41.4 · getting 0.4 pts · was 42▼A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Steelers by 6, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 41 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -101 | 41 -105 | -287 | +248 |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -115 | 41 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 41 -108 | -300 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -115 | 41 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -107 | 41 -109 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -106 | 40.5 -117 | -295 | +235 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 40.5 -118 | -290 | +235 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 40.5 -118 | -310 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -110 | 41 -107 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -290 | +226 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -101 | 41 -105 | -287 | +248 |
Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -199 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -179 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +230 | +200 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +6.0 | -105 | -115 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL 3:25pmUnder 46should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -110 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -110 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -125 | 46 -110 | -132 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2 -108 | 46 -113 | -127 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -113 | 46 -110 | -129 | +109 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -126 | +108 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -121 | 46 -107 | -132 | +112 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -127 | +104 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +116 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +112 | +109 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | +105 | +103 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL 12:00pmOver 44.5should be 45 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 45 +102 | +105 | -116 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| BetMGM | +1 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -113 | 44.5 -113 | +100 | -121 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +100 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | -108 | -112 |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -104 | -112 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -105 | 44.5 -107 | -105 | -115 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -103 | -118 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 45 +102 | +105 | -116 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -100 here against +108 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | -100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -105 | +109 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus; moneyline -100 here against +108 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL 12:00pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +137 | -167 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 47.5 +101 | +144 | -163 |
All 14 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +137 | -167 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +147 | -167 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 47 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 47 -113 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -105 | 47.5 -102 | +150 | -178 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -107 | +147 | -167 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +139 | -171 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 47.5 +101 | +144 | -163 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 88°F.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +125 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -123 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +143 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +137 | +140 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL 12:00pmUnder 50should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 49.5 -113 | -328 | +272 |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -108 | 50 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -110 | 49.5 -113 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 +100 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 49.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 50 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +250 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 49.5 -113 | -328 | +272 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -251 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -107 | +115 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -310 | -243 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL 3:25pmUnder 47should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -510 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -102 | 47 -113 | -480 | +376 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -510 | +360 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -510 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 47 -113 | -480 | +350 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -510 | +395 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -108 | 47 -113 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -490 | +380 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 47 -113 | -510 | +390 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -505 | +356 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -102 | 47 -113 | -480 | +376 |
Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.
TOM: moneyline -488 here against -397 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -307 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -367 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -488 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | -510 | -331 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 19:42.
TOM: moneyline -488 here against -397 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +101 | 47.5 -114 | +150 | -167 |
All 14 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48 -110 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 48 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -105 | 48 -108 | +143 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -105 | 47.5 -117 | +144 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -114 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -103 | 48 -107 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +101 | 47.5 -114 | +150 | -167 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +155 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +135 | +140 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +155 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 50 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +100 | 50 -108 | -195 | +173 |
All 14 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 50 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -116 | 50 -112 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 50.5 -109 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 50 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 50.5 -109 | -205 | +171 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +176 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -112 | 50 -109 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -214 | +171 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +100 | 50 -108 | -195 | +173 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -171 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -158 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | -116 | +111 | -6.3% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -205 | -155 | -6.4% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 40 -112 | -405 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 +101 | -421 | +349 |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 40 -112 | -405 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +351 21¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 40 -112 | -405 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 40.5 -107 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -104 | 39.5 -127 | -420 | +325 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 40.5 -102 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 40 -109 | -405 | +320 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -490 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 +101 | -421 | +349 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -311 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -289 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -388 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.5 | -115 | -113 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +295 | +320 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL 3:25pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -110 | 40.5 -105 | -165 | +145 |
All 14 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -112 | 40.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -113 | 40.5 -105 | -160 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 40.5 -107 | -159 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 40.5 +100 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 40.5 -106 | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -164 | +138 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 40.5 -102 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 40 -110 | -171 | +139 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -110 | 40.5 -105 | -165 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -179 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 | -113 | -102 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -160 | -148 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL 3:25pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5.5, our data says Eagles by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Eagles by 5 to Eagles by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -109 | 44 -108 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -101 | -248 | +212 |
All 14 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -109 | 44 -108 | -245 | +195 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +105 47¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -109 | 44 -108 | -245 | +203 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -250 | +205 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 44 -113 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -245 | +200 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -260 | +215 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -104 | 44 -105 | -245 | +203 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -248 | +196 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -101 | -248 | +212 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Eagles).
Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles) and 7 more.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.5 | -109 | +108 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -245 | -197 | -4.7% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -108 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-06 17:09.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL 7:20pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -119 | +147 | -167 |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 48 -109 | +132 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -111 | 48 -110 | +138 | -164 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 48.5 -105 | +134 | -158 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +140 | -160 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +135 | -167 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -119 | +147 | -167 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +122 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +135 | +137 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmUnder 43.5should be 42.4 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +102 | -138 | +122 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 43.5 -112 | -137 | +117 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -134 | +114 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 43.5 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +102 | -138 | +122 |
Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -146 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -138 | -137 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Thu Sep 17
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at PittsburghCFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pmSyracuse +10should be Syracuse +8 · getting 2 pts · was +10.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 10, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 8. 2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Syracuse is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 4 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
All 3 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -380 | +300 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Syracuse +10.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Syracuse, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -10.5, only $2 available; Syracuse Orange +10.5, only $13 available; Under 54.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (2 books) | -10.0 | -298 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Syracuse Orange +10.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | Syracuse Orange ML | +282 | +235 | +3.7% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-10 10:21; total has moved down 5.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pmLions +3.5should be Lions +3.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | -170 | +144 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -166 | +140 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -174 | +136 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Lions +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F, 41% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions +3.5, only $1 available; Under 51.5, only $5 available; Detroit Lions ML, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -141 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -153 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.5 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | +140 | +150 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Sep 18
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas TechCFB Fri 18 Sep, 7:00pmHouston +10should be Houston +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +13.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 10, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 8.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Houston is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
All 3 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -485 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -114 | 52.5 -115 | -365 | +285 |
Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston +10.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F, 40% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 3.8 toward Houston, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars +9.5, only $4 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (2 books) | -10.0 | -342 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +10.0 | -110 | -130 | +4.1% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +323 | +243 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 0.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Miami by 22, our data says Miami by 15Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 22.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami by 19.5 to Miami by 22.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +1074 8¢ | -1684 94¢ |
All 4 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +1074 8¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| BetMGM | +21.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +1050 | -1600 |
| DraftKings | +22.5 -112 | 54.5 -108 | +1000 | -1800 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +920 | -1800 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +21.5, only $330 available; Miami Hurricanes -21.5, only $104 available; Under 53.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 23 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (3 books) | +22.0 | +1028 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +22.0 | -110 | -173 | +10.9% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +1024 | +528 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 1.3.
The line is +22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Sep 19
43 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at RiceCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 48.5should be 46.6 · getting 1.9 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 7, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -430 80¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +10.5, only $2 available; Western Michigan Broncos -10.5, only $2 available; Rice Owls ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -118 |
| Market (1 books) | +10.5 | +360 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 42.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +10.5 | -110 | -162 | +9.4% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +340 | +208 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida AtlanticCFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pmFlorida International +8.5should be Florida International +6.5 · getting 2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 6.5. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida International +8.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls -8.5, only $2 available; Florida International Panthers +8.5, only $2 available; Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (1 books) | -8.5 | -281 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 63.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida International Panthers +8.5 | -110 | -139 | +5.8% |
| Moneyline | Florida International Panthers ML | +265 | +204 | +5.5% |
| Total | Over 60.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at LouisianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmUAB to winour data says 33 in 100 · +270 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 6.5. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UAB to win · +270. A price bet, UAB loses more often than not.
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $6 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (1 books) | -8.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 63.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UAB Blazers ML | +270 | +204 | +5.8% |
| Spread | UAB Blazers +8.5 | -110 | -139 | +5.8% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at CincinnatiCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Cincinnati by 14.5, our data says Cincinnati by 11Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cincinnati by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Cincinnati by 11, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F, 33% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5, only $250 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5, only $38 available; Cincinnati Bearcats ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -142 |
| Market (1 books) | -14.5 | -527 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5 | -110 | -137 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | +500 | +337 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&MCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmOver 48.5should be 49.2 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas A&M by 15, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 11.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -116 52¢ | -788 88¢ | +573 14¢ |
All 4 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -116 52¢ | -788 88¢ | +573 14¢ |
| BetMGM | -15 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -750 | +575 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 48.5 -102 | -850 | +575 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -820 | +550 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +14.5, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (3 books) | -15.0 | -593 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +15.0 | -110 | -137 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +575 | +348 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West VirginiaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmWest Virginia to winour data says 32 in 100 · +275 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 7, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +9.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 3 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +9.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | +280 | -355 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -106 | 53.5 -115 | +270 | -345 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia to win · +275. A price bet, West Virginia loses more often than not.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $2 available; West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $148 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $316 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (2 books) | +9.5 | +292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers +9.5 | -110 | -137 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | +275 | +215 | +5.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pmSan José State to winour data says 40 in 100 · +195 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 4, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State to win · +195. A price bet, San José State loses more often than not.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (1 books) | +6.5 | +208 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | +195 | +152 | +5.7% |
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans +6.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.0% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLACFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pmOver 52.5should be 53.1 · getting 0.6 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 9.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins ML, only $4 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (1 books) | -12.5 | -412 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +12.5 | -110 | -133 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +390 | +285 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at LibertyCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmUnder 57.5should be 55.6 · getting 1.9 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 10, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 36% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (1 books) | -13.5 | -475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +13.5 | -110 | -131 | +4.4% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +450 | +303 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at DukeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmStanford +9.5should be Stanford +7.5 · getting 2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 7.5. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Stanford +9.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 90°F.
Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils -9.5, only $0 available; Stanford Cardinal +9.5, only $459 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Duke's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Duke's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Duke's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (1 books) | -9.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +9.5 | -110 | -130 | +4.1% |
| Moneyline | Stanford Cardinal ML | +275 | +226 | +4.0% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at DelawareCFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:30amOver 57.5should be 58.1 · getting 0.6 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Delaware by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 3.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -182 63¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 22% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -123 |
| Market (1 books) | -4.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +146 | +148 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South CarolinaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 57.5should be 56.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 54.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 6, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Mississippi State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | — | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
All 3 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | — | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
Marked: best for Mississippi State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (2 books) | -6.0 | -192 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | +180 | +167 | +1.7% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 3.0.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at ClemsonCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 47.5should be 45.9 · getting 1.6 pts · was 44.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 4.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 3.0 toward North Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $135 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $388 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (1 books) | -5.5 | -180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +5.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +168 | +161 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 3.0.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at VanderbiltCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:45amOver 51.5should be 53.4 · getting 1.9 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vanderbilt by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (1 books) | -4.5 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +4.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +140 | +151 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amKansas +5.5should be Kansas +4.5 · getting 1 ptWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kansas +5.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (2 books) | -5.5 | -183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +5.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +171 | +163 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at AuburnCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 53.5should be 50.7 · getting 2.8 pts · was 52Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $459 available; Under 53.5, only $459 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (1 books) | +2.5 | +126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +116 | +112 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +2.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -132 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at ToledoCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:00pmTemple +3.5should be Temple +3 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets ML, only $109 available; Temple Owls ML, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (1 books) | -3.5 | -147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +136 | +140 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole MissCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 58.5should be 57.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 58Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 2.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 1.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
All 4 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 58.5 -112 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 58.5 -105 | +108 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $450 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (3 books) | +2.5 | +124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +117 | +117 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +2.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at MinnesotaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Minnesota by 27.5, our data says Minnesota by 20.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 27.5.
The spread
The total
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -143 |
| Market (1 books) | -27.5 | -2272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +27.5 | -110 | -141 | +6.1% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +2040 | +1071 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at ArkansasCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amOver 53.5should be 55.5 · getting 2 pts · was 52.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 21.5.
The spread
The total
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -2042 95¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $140 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 23 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -112 |
| Market (1 books) | +21.5 | +1154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +21.5 | -110 | -169 | +10.4% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +1100 | +519 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 1.0.
The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 47.5should be 45.3 · getting 2.2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 23.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 26% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 19 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (1 books) | -23.5 | -1342 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +23.5 | -110 | -136 | +5.2% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +1280 | +753 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 19.5, our data says Kansas State by 14.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F, 26% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (1 books) | -19.5 | -851 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +19.5 | -110 | -138 | +5.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +810 | +506 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amUnder 56.5should be 54.8 · getting 1.7 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F, 31% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 48 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -169 |
| Market (1 books) | -52.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kent State Golden Flashes +52.5 | -110 | -652 | +34.3% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Texas State by 2.5, our data says Texas State by 2Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 86°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (1 books) | -2.5 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.5 | 72.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +2.5 | -110 | +104 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +114 | +125 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 63.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at WisconsinCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:30amUnder 47.5should be 45.4 · getting 2.1 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 24.5.
The spread
The total
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles ML, only $223 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 21 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (1 books) | -24.5 | -1463 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 40.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eastern Michigan Eagles +24.5 | -110 | -146 | +7.0% |
| Moneyline | Eastern Michigan Eagles ML | +1400 | +808 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central MichiganCFB Sat 19 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 42.5should be 41.2 · getting 1.3 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 25% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -1.5, only $2 available; Wyoming Cowboys +1.5, only $2 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $290 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -123 |
| Market (1 books) | -1.5 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 38.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas -1.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas ML | -125 | -119 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at AlabamaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 50.5should be 49.9 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 17.5 to Alabama by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Alabama).
The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Alabama's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Alabama's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -142 |
| Market (3 books) | -18.0 | -751 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +18.0 | -110 | -140 | +5.9% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +750 | +451 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 0.5.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at LouisvilleCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 59should be 58.5 · getting 0.6 pts · was 57.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 2, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -121 53¢ | — | -112 51¢ |
All 4 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -121 53¢ | — | -112 51¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 59.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -112 | -108 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -126 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 85°F, 25% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs +2.5, only $26 available; Under 58.5, only $206 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game | |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (3 books) | -2.0 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs +2.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | -102 | +123 | -5.6% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.7.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at MichiganCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 48.5should be 47.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.5.
The spread
The total
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F, 27% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners ML, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 31 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game | |
| Massey | -4.5 | -161 |
| Market (1 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +35.5 | -110 | -160 | +9.2% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at RutgersCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmOver 55.5should be 57.5 · getting 2 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 23.5.
The spread
The total
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1684 94¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 35% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game | |
| Massey | -0.5 | -106 |
| Market (1 books) | +23.5 | +1258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +23.5 | -110 | -159 | +9.1% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +1200 | +630 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at UtahCFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pmNo betmarket says Utah by 26.5, our data says Utah by 20Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 26.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F.
The ratings sit 22 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -155 |
| Market (1 books) | -26.5 | -1663 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | -137 | +5.5% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1600 | +1004 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at BaylorCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 18.5, our data says Baylor by 14Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 18.5.
The spread
The total
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Kalshi thin: Baylor Bears -18.5, only $0 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5, only $153 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (1 books) | -18.5 | -851 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5 | -110 | -141 | +6.1% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +810 | +465 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at IndianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmNo betmarket says Indiana by 44.5, our data says Indiana by 32.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F, 29% chance of rain.
The ratings sit 40 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (1 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5 | -110 | -484 | +30.5% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCFCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pmOver 49.5should be 50.3 · getting 0.8 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 19.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (1 books) | -19.5 | -904 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +19.5 | -110 | -138 | +5.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +860 | +507 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says BYU by 19.5, our data says BYU by 13.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 19.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
The ratings sit 20 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -110 |
| Market (1 books) | +19.5 | +904 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +19.5 | -110 | -158 | +8.9% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +860 | +439 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at NorthwesternCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Northwestern by 3, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 3, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
All 3 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 | — | +109 46¢ |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 45.5 -118 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -154 | +128 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats -2.5, only $0 available; Colorado Buffaloes +2.5, only $0 available; Over 46.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Colorado's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Colorado's last game | |
| Massey | rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -3.0 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at MarylandCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 2, our data says Virginia Tech by 0.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 2, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 0.5. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | — | — | -136 56¢ |
All 3 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | — | — | -136 56¢ |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | +102 | -122 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +108 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $0 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (2 books) | +2.0 | +114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +105 | +108 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.5.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre DameCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says Notre Dame by 24Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
The ratings sit 26 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -143 |
| Market (3 books) | -29.5 | -2367 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +29.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +2200 | +1835 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at OklahomaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 16Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.
The spread
The total
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (1 books) | -21.5 | -1217 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos +21.5 | -110 | -145 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | +1335 | +608 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at TennesseeCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:45pmNo betmarket says Tennessee by 35.5, our data says Tennessee by 26Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
The ratings sit 31 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game | |
| Massey | -4.5 | -161 |
| Market (1 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +35.5 | -110 | -160 | +9.2% |
| Total | Under 60.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCUCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmNo betmarket says TCU by 20.5, our data says TCU by 15.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 20.5.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -141 |
| Market (1 books) | -20.5 | -904 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas State Red Wolves +20.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas State Red Wolves ML | +860 | +558 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at TexasCFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pmOver 57should be 57.9 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.
The spread
The total
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +3021 3¢ |
All 3 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +3021 3¢ |
| DraftKings | -29.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $0 available; Under 56.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 26 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game | |
| Massey | -3.5 | -146 |
| Market (2 books) | -30.0 | -2254 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +30.0 | -110 | -148 | +7.3% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +2400 | +1382 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at ArizonaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pmUnder 52.5should be 50.4 · getting 2.1 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 31.5.
The spread
The total
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Northern Illinois Huskies ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 28 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -150 |
| Market (1 books) | -31.5 | -2272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 45.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +31.5 | -110 | -150 | +7.6% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +2200 | +1628 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Sep 20
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
All 7 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -124 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | -108 | -108 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -121 | -105 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -112 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -120 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -128 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (6 books) | -1.5 | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons -1.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | -121 | -121 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 46.5should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -430 80¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -430 80¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -104 | 46.5 -118 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -323 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -279 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -319 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (8 books) | -7.5 | -326 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | -110 | +115 | -5.9% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -400 | -269 | -7.1% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 45.5should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -165 | +135 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -104 | 45.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -170 | +142 |
| FanDuel | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -154 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -168 | +131 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -154 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -165 | -142 | -3.6% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 46 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -113 | -139 | +119 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -136 | +116 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +108 | 45.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -147 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -127 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (8 books) | -2.5 | -128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | +117 | +138 | -4.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 40.5 -124 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -278 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -116 | 40.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -319 | +236 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.0 | -265 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -250 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -251 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (8 books) | -6.5 | -255 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -295 | -228 | -5.2% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -239 69¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -239 69¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -114 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -118 | +200 | -245 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets ML, only $423 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +198 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +199 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +239 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -120 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +212 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -5.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -245 | -197 | -4.7% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 43.5should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
All 6 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -200 | +160 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -214 | +164 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -162 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -131 |
| Market (5 books) | -4.5 | -179 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +164 | +166 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmTitans to winour data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -276 72¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -276 72¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -107 | +198 | -240 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +210 | -255 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $393 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +186 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +163 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +5.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +198 | +191 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 44.5 -106 | -154 | +131 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -156 | +132 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -159 | +124 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $472 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $210 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -142 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +130 | +142 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmUnder 42.5should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -231 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -334 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -379 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (8 books) | -9.5 | -358 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +330 | +313 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4.5, our data says Cowboys by 4.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -229 68¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -229 68¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 51.5 -109 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -198 | +164 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -230 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 +100 | 51 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -222 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $350 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (8 books) | -4.5 | -188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -220 | -175 | -5.1% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pmUnder 47.5should be 46.7 · getting 0.6 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | -278 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -106 | -275 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -278 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 47 -110 | -275 | +206 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -220 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (8 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +6.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +220 | +209 | +1.1% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games
Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-0—nothing graded yet0 games
No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.
A Little Nasty9-853%+0.17 units17 games
Sep 8 to 14
9-8 · +0.17 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 2-1 | 66.7% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 9-8 | 52.9% | +0.2 u | small sample |
| Not Nasty | 67 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 73 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 29 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since Sat 12 Sep, 10:56pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward Virginia Cavalierswith the public
- → 0.5Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggiestoward Texas A&M Aggieswith the public
- → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 53 | 10.38 |
| The market | 92 | 11.04 |
| SP+ | 53 | 11.39 |
| Sagarin | 81 | 13.80 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 40-50 | 44% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 368941 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.23 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 42 | 2.83 |
| LowVig.ag | 114 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 118 | 1.43 |
| DraftKings | 146 | 1.24 |
| Caesars | 125 | 1.23 |
| Bovada | 108 | 1.21 |
| Fanatics | 142 | 1.19 |
| BetMGM | 107 | 1.15 |
| TOM | 105 | 1.14 |
| BetRivers | 153 | 1.12 |
| FanDuel | 171 | 1.11 |
| Pinnacle | 107 | 1.07 |
| MyBookie.ag | 94 | 1.00 |
| BetUS | 83 | 0.98 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 4 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated today