Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3+100 at TOM+3.8%Sat 6:00pm Buck's case ›All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+3.5 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +2.5UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +8.5-110 at Fanatics+3.2%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 1 pt+9.5 open Sunnow +8.5Nasty Number +7
Buck's Take
Two Nasty Picks and One Nasty Dog on the counter this week: UNLV +3, UCF +8.5 and Iowa to win. Read the receipt before you bet it.
South Carolina at Florida, South Carolina +13. Every system has Florida by 8; the market has Florida by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Wake Forest at NC State, NC State +4. Every system has NC State by 1.5; the market has Wake Forest by 4. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 50 (South Florida at UTSA) at 3.8% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is South Florida at UTSA, Over 50, down 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Giants at Commanders climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Iowa at Washington climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Wake Forest at NC State climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: North Dakota State at UNLV, UNLV +3. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Iowa at Washington▲Moved our way · 1 ptIowa to win+140 at DraftKings+5.7%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Damn Near Nasty
6 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
6 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Giants): FanDuel +4.5 at -120 (6.9%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (6.0%) · Caesars +3.5 at -114 (5.6%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (5.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -119 (4.5%).The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics or TOM +4 at -110 (6.9%) · DraftKings +4 at -112 (6.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (6.3%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +3.5 at -107 (6.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings or Caesars +3.5 at -110 (3.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (3.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4 for -108 at BetMGM · half a point away
Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -108 (2.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Titans): Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -102 (0.2%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +7 at -115 (0.1%) · TOM +7 at -116 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -108 (-1.2%).Points or price: +7 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +6.5 (the games that land on 7); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. The price wins.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +15 for -108 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (San Diego State): FanDuel +14.5 at -108 (2.4%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +14.5 at -110 (1.9%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 51¢ (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.2%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (0.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -115 (0.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at +100 (48¢ on the app) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -112 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. The price wins by a hair.9 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (3.8%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -115 (3.8%) · Caesars 50 at -112 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (3.3%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 49.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 50 (the games that land on 50); -115 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -102 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%).Points or price: 48 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.0%) · TOM 54.5 at -110 (2.6%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (0.6%) · Fanatics or FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Buccaneers): DraftKings +8.5 at -108 (3.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -115 (1.6%) · BetMGM or TOM +8 at -110 (1.5%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -105 (1.1%) · Caesars +8 at -113 (0.8%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): Fanatics -2.5 at -105 (1.7%) · TOM -2 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (1.0%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 51¢ (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -2 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -2.5 (the games that land on 2); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (1.9%) · TOM 50.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -105 (1.5%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -118 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM +7 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (0.4%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.6%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Michigan): DraftKings or BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.4%) · FanDuel or TOM -13.5 at -114 (1.0%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (0.8%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 54¢ (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.0%).Moved closer since the Mon 5 Oct, 9:56pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Mon 5 Oct, 9:56pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Wake Forest at NC State Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -115 to -110. - Texas A&M at Missouri Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - South Carolina at Florida Sat 10 Oct, 11:45am · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +13.5 to +13.0; the price from -110 to -108. - San Diego State at Oregon State Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +14.0 to +14.5; the price from -112 to -110; the market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Giants at Commanders Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.5 to +4.5; the price from -112 to -120. - Texans at Titans Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The Nasty Number moved 0.8. - Broncos at Chargers Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - South Florida at UTSA Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +7.0 to +7.5; the price from -102 to -115.
And 15 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at TroyCFB 7:00pmTroy -10.5should be Troy -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Troy by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Troy by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 51.5 -106 | -413 | +331 |
All 22 books
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +330 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -480 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -106 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | -410 | +324 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -103 | 51.5 -106 | -413 | +331 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +100 | 51.5 -104 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -11 -114 | 51.5 -114 | -461 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Troy). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -402 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -206 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -394 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -275 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.5 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5 | -112 | -103 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +333 | +353 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Troy Trojans since 09-30 18:06; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
2 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State at Kennesaw StateJacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmKennesaw State +2.5should be Kennesaw State +2.5 at Kalshi · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -116 | 50 -104 | +123 | -144 |
All 23 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -113 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 50 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | 49.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 50 -105 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +3 -113 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 50.5 -109 | +123 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 49.5 -110 | +126 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -113 | 49.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -115 | +122 | -146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -111 | 50 -103 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +123 | -151 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -116 | 50 -104 | +123 | -144 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +113 | 49.5 -104 | — | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -103 | 49.5 -116 | +123 | -151 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 49.5 -115 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +2.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $104 available; Kennesaw State Owls ML, only $40 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -169 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +2.5 | +105 | +101 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +126 | +122 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNew Mexico State +6.5should be New Mexico State +5.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 5.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but New Mexico State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -116 | 46.5 -111 | -244 | +199 |
All 21 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -107 | 46.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -115 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -107 | 46.5 -112 | -245 | +195 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -250 | +195 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -106 | 46.5 -115 | -235 | +192 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -113 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 46.5 -115 | -238 | +195 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -106 | -225 | +184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 46.5 -108 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -238 | +189 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -116 | 46.5 -111 | -244 | +199 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 45.5 | -213 | +203 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | -238 | +189 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 +100 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico State, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.7 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: New Mexico State Aggies +6.5, only $478 available; Over 45.5, only $448 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -119 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +200 | +192 | +1.0% |
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +6.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 3.9.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Thu Oct 8
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, Buccaneers at CowboysTampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pmBuccaneers +8.5should be Buccaneers +7 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +9.5▲A Little Nasty · BuccaneersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Buccaneers. Market says Cowboys by 8, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 7. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buccaneers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8 +101 | 47.5 -107 | -431 | +344 |
All 26 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +320 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -460 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -8 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +337 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -430 | +338 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Caesars | -8 -107 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +360 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -480 | +370 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -540 | +360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 +100 | 47.5 -107 | -430 | +337 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -561 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -8 +101 | 47.5 -107 | -431 | +344 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -104 | 47.5 +100 | -426 | +400 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -526 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers +8.5 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Buccaneers.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Buccaneers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Also out: Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -202 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -460 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -200 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -181 |
| Market (22 books) | -8.0 | -411 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 | -108 | -123 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +370 | +291 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 10-01 08:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
South Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pmOver 50Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 52.4 · getting 2.4 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6.5, but at -115 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in South Florida's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 49.5 -126 54¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -103 | 50.5 -102 | -297 | +236 |
All 23 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 49.5 -126 54¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -109 | 51.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -109 | 51.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -110 | 51.5 -106 | -305 | +235 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50 -112 | -280 | +230 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 50.5 -109 | -271 | +230 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -278 | +225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -108 | 50 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -103 | 50.5 -102 | -297 | +236 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +108 | 49.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -103 | 50.5 -111 | -300 | +222 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · South Florida, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from South Florida, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UTSA Roadrunners -7.5, only $16 available; Over 49.5, only $2 available; UTSA Roadrunners ML, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +7.5 | -115 | -129 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +220 | +213 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 7.2.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pmWestern Kentucky -2.5should be Western Kentucky -3 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was PKNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Western Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -107 | -131 | +112 |
All 23 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -118 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 | -143 57¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 56.5 -109 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 56.5 -109 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 56.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -134 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 57.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -114 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +114 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -107 | -131 | +112 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 55.5 -117 | — | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -116 | 56.5 -116 | -143 | +112 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky -2.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $315 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5, only $2 available; Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -184 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -135 | -140 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 52.5 -109 | -605 | +418 |
All 23 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -116 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -113 | 52.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +410 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 52.5 -109 | -605 | +418 |
| Polymarket | -13.5 -113 | 53.5 | -525 | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -625 | +400 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5, only $16 available; Over 52.5, only $31 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -450 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -365 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Liberty Flames -13.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames ML | -575 | -447 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Liberty played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pmArkansas State -1.5should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 58.5 | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -108 | 59 -108 | -114 | -103 |
All 23 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 58.5 | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Bally Bet | -0.5 -112 | 58.5 -106 | -112 | -109 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -118 | -102 |
| betPARX | -0.5 -112 | 58.5 -106 | -112 | -109 |
| BetRivers | +0.5 -113 | 58.5 -107 | -113 | -110 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 59 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -109 | -117 | -102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -112 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 59 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -104 | 58.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 58.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -101 | 58.5 -114 | -118 | -102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -116 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -108 | 59 -108 | -114 | -103 |
| Polymarket | +0.5 -108 | 59.5 +104 | -108 | +100 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -109 | 58.5 -114 | -119 | -107 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -110 | -110 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5, only $41 available; Over 58.5, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.0 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +106 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 62.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -102 | +111 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.0 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 9
5 gamesBest: Iowa to win, Nasty DogIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmIowa to winMoved our way · 1 ptour data says 47 in 100 to win · +140 at DraftKings · a price bet, they lose more often than not▲Nasty DogBuck's case ›
Take Iowa to win at +140 at DraftKings. Market says Washington by 3, the Nasty Number says Washington by 1.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 41.5 -114 | -155 | +132 |
All 23 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 41.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -157 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 41 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -112 | 41 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -157 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 41.5 -110 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 41 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 42 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 41.5 -107 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 41.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 41.5 -105 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 41.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 41 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 41 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 41.5 -114 | -155 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 41.5 -108 | -150 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -105 | -169 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 41.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 61°F, 40% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Iowa, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -3.5, only $16 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +140 | +111 | +5.7% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.0 | -108 | -128 | +4.1% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmSan José State -6.5should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | — | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 44 -102 | -234 | +192 |
All 23 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | — | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 43.5 -109 | -250 | +200 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Caesars | -6 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -106 | 43.5 -105 | -235 | +190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -101 | 43 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -255 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 44 -102 | -234 | +192 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | 43.5 -104 | — | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -114 | 42.5 -119 | -270 | +202 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $17 available; San Jose State Spartans ML, only $282 available; San Jose State Spartans -6.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -290 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -299 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -188 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -6.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -225 | -236 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmWashington State +6should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 6, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.3 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -107 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -201 | +167 |
All 23 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -107 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -107 | 44 -115 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 44 -115 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -118 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -103 | 44 -114 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -176 | +142 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -106 | 43.5 -112 | -201 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -4.5 | 43.5 | — | +178 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -111 | -193 | +149 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for Washington State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 3.3 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Washington State Cougars +5.5, only $17 available; Over 44.5, only $404 available; Utah State Aggies -4.5, only $328 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -130 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +122 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +180 | +179 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +6.0 | -113 | -113 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 59.5 -109 | -177 | +149 |
All 23 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -190 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -4 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -190 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -113 | 59.5 -109 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 59 -110 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 58.5 -122 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -188 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -190 | +153 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -102 | 59.5 -109 | -177 | +149 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 59.5 | — | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 58.5 -119 | -191 | +147 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $30 available; Under 59.5, only $167 available; Over 59.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -189 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -169 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pmBYU -11should be BYU -10.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 11, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -105 | 47 -105 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | — | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +100 | 47.5 -102 | -408 | +307 |
All 23 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -105 | 47 -105 | -425 | +315 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | — | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -105 | 47 -105 | -425 | +334 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -500 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -112 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -101 | 47 -103 | -425 | +334 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -429 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +100 | 47.5 -102 | -408 | +307 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +104 | 47.5 +104 | -376 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | -461 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.3 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: Iowa State Cyclones +10.5, only $439 available; Over 45.5, only $110 available; Under 45.5, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -422 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -390 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -11.0 | -407 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +11.0 | -115 | -102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | +333 | +371 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: spread -11.0 here against -10.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBest: UNLV +3.0, NastiestNorth Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3should be UNLV +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · +100 at TOM · was +3.5NastiestBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take UNLV +3.0 at +100 at TOM. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 48.5 -102 | +137 | -162 |
All 22 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +131 | -156 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -127 | 49.5 +107 | +118 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -120 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +136 | -156 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -127 | 49.5 +107 | +118 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -129 | 49.5 +106 | +118 | -148 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 +100 | 48.5 -103 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -104 | +130 | -156 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -125 | 49.5 +105 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 48 -108 | +136 | -156 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +131 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 48.5 -102 | +137 | -162 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 47.5 -117 | +144 | -156 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 47.5 -119 | +126 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 +100 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · UNLV, now A Little Nasty · UNLV.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $36 available; Over 48.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | +100 | -116 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +131 | +121 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUCF +8.5should be UCF +7 · getting 1.5 pts · -110 at Fanatics · was +9.5Nasty PickBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take UCF +8.5 at -110 at Fanatics. Market says Oklahoma State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UCF is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | — | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -106 | 53 -112 | -365 | +280 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 | — | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 54 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 53 -115 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 53.5 -109 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -114 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -106 | 53 -112 | -365 | +280 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -108 | 53.5 -104 | -335 | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -111 | 52.5 -119 | -360 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now A Little Nasty · UCF. The line went from -9.0 to -8.5.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +9.5, only $17 available; Over 52.5, only $1 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys ML, only $231 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -9.0 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -192 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -8.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +8.5 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +280 | +239 | +3.2% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UCF Knights since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -9.0 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +4Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be NC State +2 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +2▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. NC State +4.0: FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5; the other 2 of 3 our side, 6.9% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in NC State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 60 -105 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -107 | 60 -109 | +152 | -181 |
All 22 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 60 -105 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 60 -105 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 60.5 -110 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 60 -105 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Courtside | +4 -110 | 59.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +4 -112 | 59.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -106 | 59.5 -110 | +146 | -178 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 60 -103 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +154 | -191 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -107 | 60 -109 | +152 | -181 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 59.5 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -114 | +151 | -195 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +4.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · NC State, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.5 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $100 available; NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $357 available; Over 59.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +194 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -112 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (18 books) | +4.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +4.0 | -110 | -145 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +155 | +117 | +6.8% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5should be Texas A&M +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +1▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Texas A&M +3.5: all 3 ratings our side, 2.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -180 | +151 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | — | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -112 | 48 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | -177 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -110 | 48 -113 | -180 | +151 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -163 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 48.5 -111 | -191 | +148 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +3.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies +3.5, only $17 available; Over 48.5, only $0 available; Under 48.5, only $71 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -108 | -121 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +132 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5should be San Diego State +13.5 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. San Diego State +14.5: all 3 ratings our side, 1.9% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San Diego State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 54 -109 | -690 | +462 |
All 22 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -15 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -650 | +476 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -910 | +540 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -650 | +475 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -720 | +490 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 53.5 -103 | -650 | +476 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -676 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -108 | 54 -109 | -690 | +462 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -108 | -567 | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -725 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from -14.0 to -14.5.
A play at +15.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $102 available; Under 53.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -363 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -303 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.5 | -614 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +476 | +437 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +13should be South Carolina +11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was +15▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. South Carolina +13.0: all 3 ratings 4.8 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -105 | 62 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 62 -104 | -539 | +383 |
All 22 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -105 | 62 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -107 | -500 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 62 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 61.5 -112 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -105 | 62 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -107 | -500 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 61.5 -108 | -500 | +360 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 62 -105 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -108 | 61.5 -113 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -115 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -106 | 61.5 -115 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -101 | 62 -103 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -469 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 62 -104 | -539 | +383 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 -108 | -456 | +426 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -116 | 61.5 -119 | -490 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 61.5 -115 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 62.0 · -115 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, weather, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from -13.5 to -13.0.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 2.1 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 61.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -291 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -309 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +13.0 | -108 | -110 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +410 | +390 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 4.3.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmMiami (OH) -2should be Miami (OH) -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 +101 48¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -111 | 46.5 -109 | +109 | -127 |
All 22 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 +101 48¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -113 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -113 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -114 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -111 | 46.5 -109 | +109 | -127 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 46.5 -114 | +106 | -141 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -2.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Miami (OH), now A Little Nasty · Miami (OH).
Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen +2.5, only $88 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.5, only $82 available; Over 45.5, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +414 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -130 | -136 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -14.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 14.5. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 43.5 -111 | -611 | +422 |
All 21 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -126 54¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -564 84¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 43 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 43 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -14 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -113 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -725 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 43.5 -111 | -611 | +422 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -125 | 43.5 -111 | -800 | +450 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -114 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Western Michigan, now A Little Nasty · Western Michigan.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $13 available; Under 44.5, only $431 available; Over 43.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -18.5 | -790 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -749 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -590 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -114 | -119 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -533 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia Tech +7should be Georgia Tech +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMA Little Nasty · Georgia TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 49.5 | +217 30¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 49 -107 | +210 | -260 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 49.5 | +217 30¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +215 | -275 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 49 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +215 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +7 -113 | 48.5 -113 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 49 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 49 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Courtside | +7 -110 | 48.5 -113 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -112 | 48.5 -115 | +220 | -270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 49 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -112 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 49 -110 | +228 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 49 -107 | +210 | -260 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +104 | 49.5 +100 | +233 | -245 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 48.5 -119 | +216 | -310 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +105 | 48.5 -115 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech +7.0 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 71°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Georgia Tech.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $23 available; Over 49.5, only $17 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $322 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +7.0 | -112 | -117 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +215 | +209 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmUnder 54.5Moved our way · 2 ptsweather: 15 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 54.5, for the weather. 15 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in James Madison's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | — | — | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 54 -106 | +265 | -341 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | — | — | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -108 | 53.5 -121 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +7 -105 | 54 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -108 | 53.5 -121 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +9 -113 | 53.5 -122 | +275 | -375 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -106 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +270 | -340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -120 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -106 | 53 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 54 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 54 -106 | +265 | -341 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 53.5 -104 | +270 | -300 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 53.5 -119 | +244 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, weather, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from James Madison, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5, only $92 available; Over 53.5, only $100 available; Under 53.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +11.0 | +374 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +280 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +475 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -300 | -308 | +0.5% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; total 54.5 here against 53.8 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmOver 50.5should be 52.6 · getting 2.1 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 51 -118 | +402 | -574 |
All 22 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -570 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +395 | -520 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +428 | -570 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -110 | 51 -112 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +435 | -570 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -103 | 51.5 -103 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +400 | -550 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 50.5 -114 | +428 | -570 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 51 -118 | +402 | -574 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 | — | -488 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | +370 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $399 available; Tennessee Volunteers -13.5, only $30 available; Over 49.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +508 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +560 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +312 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +365 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +427 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.5.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus; moneyline +418 here against +508 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmOver 48Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 49.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 48 -107 | -145 | +124 |
All 22 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | -141 | +115 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 48 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 47.5 -121 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 48.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -110 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 48 -107 | -145 | +124 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | — | -144 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -119 | -159 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 80°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · Over.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $116 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +2.5, only $14 available; Over 48.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -107 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -211 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -118 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -120 | -105 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -127 | -3.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 5.5, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Akron is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | — | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 52 -105 | +206 | -254 |
All 22 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | — | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 51.5 -113 | +230 | -271 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +225 | -278 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -106 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +228 | -295 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -103 | 52 -105 | +206 | -254 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 51.5 -119 | +218 | -310 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -105 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $102 available; Over 51.5, only $93 available; Under 51.5, only $405 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -128 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +215 | +191 | +2.6% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -117 | -161 | +136 |
All 22 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -167 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 48 -117 | -161 | +136 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | — | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 47.5 -119 | -170 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $12 available; Under 48.5, only $143 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -112 | -119 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +135 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was -3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 61 -111 | +137 | -161 |
All 22 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 62 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -116 | 61.5 -115 | +141 | -161 |
| betPARX | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 61 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 61 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 61.5 -105 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -112 | 61.5 -114 | +141 | -161 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | +134 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 61 -111 | +137 | -161 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 +100 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -116 | +132 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 61.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona -3.0 · -115 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $39 available; West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5, only $119 available; Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.0 | -115 | -119 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -161 | -164 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.1 consensus; total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 64 in 100 · -175Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 4, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 4.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -114 | 47 -108 | -187 | +157 |
All 22 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -105 | 47 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -121 53¢ | 46.5 -121 53¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 47 -109 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 46.5 -120 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -176 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -107 | 47 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -114 | 47 -108 | -187 | +157 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 47.5 | -178 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | -197 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -175 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5, only $15 available; Over 47.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -302 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -341 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (18 books) | -4.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -175 | -181 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -4.0 | -105 | -107 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMemphis -14should be Memphis -15 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 15. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -110 | 57 -120 | -650 | +442 |
All 22 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -108 | 58.5 +100 | -910 | +575 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 58 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -108 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -108 | 58.5 +100 | -910 | +575 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -109 | 58.5 -103 | -1000 | +575 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 58.5 +100 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -631 | +433 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -110 | 57 -120 | -650 | +442 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -108 | -567 | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 57.5 -116 | -625 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F, 24% chance of rain.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Memphis, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $135 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $26 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $485 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -871 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -852 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -693 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.0 | -112 | -113 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -550 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAir Force -7should be Air Force -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5, but the market has moved 5.4 points away from Air Force since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Air Force is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 47 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -110 | +264 | -340 |
All 22 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -106 | 47 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 +102 | +235 | -305 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -106 | 46 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 48.5 +102 | +235 | -305 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | +235 | -305 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 47 -105 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | +260 | -325 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | +240 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 46 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +242 | -310 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 47 -110 | +264 | -340 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 46.5 -116 | +230 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for Air Force, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.4 away from Air Force, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -7.5, only $98 available; Over 46.5, only $18 available; Over 47.5, only $399 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +298 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +317 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.0 | -114 | -116 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -295 | -279 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +298 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9should be California +7.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 7.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9 -108 | 53 -111 | +274 | -355 |
All 22 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9 -112 | 54 -109 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| BetMGM | +9 -118 | 53.5 -108 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9 -112 | 54 -109 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +9 -112 | 54 -110 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 54 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9 -110 | 53 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -112 | 53.5 -106 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +270 | -345 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +260 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -106 | 52.5 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +9 -108 | 53 -111 | +274 | -355 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +285 | -317 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | +265 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +9.0. The market has moved 3.8 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5, only $346 available; California Golden Bears +8.5, only $302 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -8.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +320 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +315 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.0 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +275 | +277 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus; moneyline +287 here against +320 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4 -109 | 54 -115 | -192 | +161 |
All 22 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 53.5 -117 | -186 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -116 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -108 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -109 | 54 -115 | -192 | +161 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -113 | 55.5 +108 | -178 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -196 | +145 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Temple, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls -3.5, only $71 available; Over 54.5, only $124 available; Under 54.5, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -102 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -175 | -170 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7should be Bowling Green -8 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44 -115 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 44 -116 | -294 | +234 |
All 22 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44 -115 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -120 | 44 -115 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -116 | 44 -114 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -313 | +241 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -105 | 44 -116 | -294 | +234 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -104 | 43.5 -117 | -270 | +245 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -114 | 44.5 -114 | -360 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Bowling Green, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -7.5, only $17 available; Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -349 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -369 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -312 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.0 | -120 | -120 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -290 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amIndiana -7should be Indiana -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -102 | 51 -110 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -117 | 51.5 -107 | +245 | -311 |
All 20 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -102 | 51 -110 | +230 | -305 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | — | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -102 | 51 -110 | +249 | -305 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 52 -109 | +255 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7 +100 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | +7.5 -121 | 50.5 -124 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7 +100 | 51.5 +100 | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +250 | -315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +102 | 51 -108 | +249 | -305 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 51.5 -110 | +248 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -117 | 51.5 -107 | +245 | -311 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | +242 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Under, weather, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $1 available; Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $140 available; Indiana Hoosiers -7.5, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +286 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +228 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +186 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +380 |
| Market (17 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -118 | -108 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -305 | -262 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +286 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -36should be Northwestern -37.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 36.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 36. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -108 | 53 -109 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36 -118 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -113 | 52.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -36.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 58¢ -150 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36 -108 | 53 -109 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -127 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $17 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -39.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (17 books) | -36.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -36.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -133 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.3 consensus.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 50 -111 | -390 | +296 |
All 22 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 50.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 50 -105 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 50.5 -115 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 50 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -106 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 50 -103 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 50 -111 | -390 | +296 |
| Polymarket | -9.5 -113 | 49.5 -117 | -355 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -111 | -429 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -355 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -132 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -365 | -322 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20.5should be Toledo -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 55 -102 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -111 | 54 -118 | -1320 | +733 |
All 22 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 55 -102 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20 -109 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 55 -102 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -20 -109 | 54.5 -114 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -20 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | +1000 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2300 | +1060 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 55 +100 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1408 | +770 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -111 | 54 -118 | -1320 | +733 |
| Polymarket | -20.5 -108 | 53.5 -122 | -1150 | +900 |
| ReBet | — | 54.5 -119 | -1587 | +680 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Toledo).
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls +20.5, only $456 available; Over 54.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -835 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1228 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -927 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1269 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +20.5 | -104 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +947 | +928 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -118 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3should be Ohio -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ohio by 3.5 to Ohio by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -106 | -151 | +129 |
All 22 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 47 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46.5 -103 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -106 | -151 | +129 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 47.5 +104 | — | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 45.5 -116 | -158 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $39 available; Ohio Bobcats -2.5, only $307 available; Ohio Bobcats ML, only $183 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -246 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -148 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOver 57.5should be 60.1 · getting 2.6 pts · was 60.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28 -118 | 58 -113 | — | — |
All 22 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -108 | 58.5 -102 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -114 | 57.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -120 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -28.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -105 | 58 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | — | +2200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28 -116 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1347 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -118 | 58 -113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -28.5 -111 | 58.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $343 available; Under 57.5, only $4 available; North Texas Mean Green ML, only $298 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1954 |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3124 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -1951 |
| Market (18 books) | -28.0 | -4086 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.0 | +100 | -111 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +2000 | +2293 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.9 consensus.
The line is -28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmKansas State -2.5should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 55.5 -110 | -134 | +115 |
All 22 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 56 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -138 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55.5 -103 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -145 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 55.5 -110 | -134 | +115 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | -133 | +117 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 55.5 -111 | -151 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 82°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $17 available; Over 55.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmIllinois -2.5should be Illinois -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Illinois by 3.5 to Illinois by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -101 | 48.5 +100 | +118 | -138 |
All 22 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -131 55¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +113 | -133 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 48.5 -105 | +105 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -104 | 48 -103 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 48 -110 | +107 | -131 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -101 | 48.5 +100 | +118 | -138 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -119 | +103 | -136 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Michigan State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $50 available; Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $9 available; Illinois Fighting Illini -2.5, only $250 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +113 | +116 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNavy -2.5should be Navy -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 49 -107 | -135 | +116 |
All 22 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -115 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -115 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -117 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 49 -107 | -135 | +116 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -133 | +117 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -141 | +106 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen -2.5, only $162 available; Over 48.5, only $18 available; Under 48.5, only $78 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -113 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -206 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNotre Dame -37.5should be Notre Dame -37.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -112 | 54.5 -106 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -110 | 54 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -112 | 54 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -38.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 +100 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -102 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -37.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -106 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -112 | 54.5 -106 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -109 | 53.5 -119 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $17 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available; Under 53.5, only $77 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -38.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -33.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -37.5 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML | — | — | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -37.5 here against -38.0 consensus.
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8should be Texas -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 +100 | 39 -110 | +265 | -341 |
All 21 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +9 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -112 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -107 | 39.5 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +8.5 -114 | 39.5 -112 | +255 | -345 |
| BetUS | +8 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -103 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 +100 | 39 -110 | +265 | -341 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -108 | 38.5 -113 | — | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +242 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +9.5, only $392 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $83 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +489 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +249 |
| Market (18 books) | +8.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -8.0 | -113 | -101 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -330 | -291 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +307 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 10 to Ole Miss by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 59 -116 | +292 | -384 |
All 21 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 59.5 | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 60 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 60 -115 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +10 -114 | 59 -109 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +10 -115 | 59 -110 | +285 | -385 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 60 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -111 | 59.5 -110 | +293 | -350 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 59.5 -112 | +285 | -360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 60.5 -105 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 59.5 -110 | +285 | -365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -116 | 59 -116 | +292 | -384 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 +104 | 59.5 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 59.5 -116 | +270 | -400 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 23% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Vanderbilt). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $102 available; Over 59.5, only $390 available; Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +125 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (17 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5 | -122 | -121 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +296 | +298 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12should be Oregon -13 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 13. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 58.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 58 -112 | -471 | +345 |
All 22 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -110 | 59 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 58.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -460 | +350 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 58 -110 | -470 | +364 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -470 | +370 |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 58 -115 | -470 | +345 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -103 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -465 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -106 | 58 -108 | -470 | +364 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 58 -112 | -471 | +345 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 | 58.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 58.5 -109 | -469 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $23 available; Over 58.5, only $59 available; Oregon Ducks -10.5, only $327 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -513 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -531 |
| Market (18 books) | -12.0 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -11.5 | -108 | -107 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -430 | -427 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -10should be East Carolina -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 48.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 47.5 -112 | -398 | +301 |
All 22 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 48.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -118 | 47.5 -108 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 47.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 47.5 -112 | -398 | +301 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +104 | 47.5 -104 | -376 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -461 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward East Carolina).
Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates -9.5, only $93 available; Over 48.5, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -371 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -344 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -525 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -10.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -375 | -347 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmUnder 56.5should be 55.5 · getting 1 pt · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -107 | 56 -113 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -125 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -109 | 56 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -122 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -107 | 56 -113 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -33.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $267 available; Over 57.5, only $156 available; Under 57.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3140 |
| Massey | -31.0 | -3897 |
| Market (17 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes -33.0 | -125 | -102 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | — | -5964 | priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMarshall -3should be Marshall -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | — | — | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 58.5 -107 | -156 | +132 |
All 22 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | — | — | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -107 | -152 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -107 | -152 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 59.5 -109 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 58.5 -113 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 58.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 58.5 -107 | -156 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 57.5 -117 | -150 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 58.5 -114 | -159 | +119 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 58.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.5, only $18 available; Over 58.5, only $0 available; Under 58.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -137 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +125 | +136 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +9.5should be Kentucky +8 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -120 | 54 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -117 | 53 -109 | +266 | -343 |
All 22 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -120 | 54 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9 -110 | 52 -112 | +285 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -120 | 52.5 -108 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -120 | 52 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9 -110 | 52 -112 | +285 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9 -112 | 52 -113 | +280 | -385 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 53 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 53 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +265 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -116 | 52 -108 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -117 | 53 -109 | +266 | -343 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 | 53.5 +100 | — | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | +260 | -380 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $80 available; Kentucky Wildcats +8.5, only $99 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +311 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +190 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +8.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +275 | +289 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus; total 54.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +9.5should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | — | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +101 | +281 | -366 |
All 22 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | — | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -118 | 49.5 -109 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -115 | 49 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +9 -118 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -113 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -118 | 49.5 -109 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +9 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -109 | 49.5 -103 | +280 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -109 | 50 +101 | +281 | -366 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +285 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -114 | 49.5 -111 | +265 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.
Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5, only $130 available; Over 50.5, only $16 available; Under 50.5, only $394 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +325 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +210 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.5 | -113 | -104 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +275 | +301 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: moneyline +287 here against +325 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5, but the market has moved 4.5 points away from Georgia since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -113 | 54 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -107 | 55 -102 | -115 | -101 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -113 | 54 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -113 | 54.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -113 | 54 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| betPARX | -1 -113 | 54.5 -109 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1 -114 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -104 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 54 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -108 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -109 | 54 -108 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -107 | 55 -102 | -115 | -101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 53.5 -113 | -113 | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 54.5 -111 | -128 | -104 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 76°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.5 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs +1.5, only $143 available; Under 53.5, only $107 available; Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -161 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -107 | -106 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +107 | +110 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.5 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.7 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -109 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 54 -113 | -114 | -102 |
All 22 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1 -118 | 54.5 -112 | -118 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -115 | 55 -105 | -127 | +107 |
| betPARX | -1 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -121 | -104 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 54 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -114 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -103 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 54 -113 | -114 | -102 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 53.5 -117 | -113 | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 54.5 -114 | -126 | -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5, only $0 available; USC Trojans +1.5, only $404 available; Over 55.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -122 here against -107 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -170 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +1.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +107 | +110 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.2.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.1 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus; moneyline -122 here against -107 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9should be Virginia -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -109 | -366 | +281 |
All 22 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -9 -118 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 50 -113 | -375 | +270 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -118 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -106 | 50 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -109 | -366 | +281 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 | 49.5 | -335 | +300 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -111 | -429 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange +9.5, only $49 available; Under 49.5, only $42 available; Virginia Cavaliers -8.5, only $181 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -338 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.0 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -350 | -317 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2should be Minnesota -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -115 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +109 | -128 |
All 22 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -115 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 50.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +115 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -115 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 51 -110 | +115 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 51 -112 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -111 | 51 -103 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +109 | -128 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | — | +117 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | +107 | -142 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $32 available; Under 50.5, only $34 available; Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +179 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0 | -105 | -102 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -125 | -118 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -102 | -738 | +486 |
All 21 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -16.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -108 | 51 -113 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -108 | 51 -113 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -109 | 51 -114 | -770 | +480 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -106 | 51.5 -112 | -710 | +490 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -102 | -738 | +486 |
| Polymarket | -14.5 | 51.5 -108 | -669 | +525 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | -847 | +460 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F, 45% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks +16.5, only $396 available; Under 52.5, only $121 available; Utah Utes -14.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -545 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -411 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -680 |
| Market (17 books) | -15.5 | -642 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | -113 | -102 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +500 | +548 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -106 | 51 -106 | -1695 | +865 |
All 22 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -112 | 50.5 -106 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -105 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -21 -112 | 50.5 -106 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -113 | 50.5 -107 | -2500 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -21 -110 | 51 -105 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 49.5 -118 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -1700 | +890 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 50 -103 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1587 | +810 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -106 | 51 -106 | -1695 | +865 |
| Polymarket | -20.5 -113 | — | -1567 | — |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 49.5 -116 | -1786 | +710 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5, only $2 available; Under 50.5, only $17 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -471 |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1322 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -869 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1426 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona State Sun Devils -20.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Arizona State Sun Devils ML | -1400 | -939 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6should be Boise State -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +205 | -253 |
All 22 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6 -105 | 49 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 48.5 -112 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +6 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 +100 | 48.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +205 | -253 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 -104 | 47.5 | — | -223 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | +196 | -275 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Boise State Broncos -6.5, only $172 available; Over 47.5, only $5 available; Fresno State Bulldogs ML, only $438 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +290 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -6.0 | -116 | -101 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -250 | -204 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +6.4 consensus; moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 11
13 games3 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Giants at Commanders, Giants +4.5.New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +4.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Giants +2.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Giants +4.5: all 4 ratings our side, 6.9% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Giants's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 44 +104 | -181 | +158 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -118 | 43 -114 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -101 | 43.5 -108 | -185 | +161 |
| betPARX | -3 -118 | 43 -114 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3 -118 | 43 -114 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -105 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | -182 | +151 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 43.5 -113 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -102 | 43.5 -120 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 -105 | -185 | +161 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -190 | +147 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 44 +104 | -181 | +158 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 -104 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -182 | +154 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +4.5 · -120 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 26% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Giants, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Rachaad White (RB, Commanders), Jaylin Lane (WR, Commanders), Terry McLaurin (WR, Commanders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -104 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -183 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +105 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +4.5 | -120 | -160 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +164 | +123 | +6.9% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.6% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -102 | +155 | -177 |
All 25 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 42 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -107 | 42.5 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -118 | 42 -105 | +155 | -177 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -107 | 42.5 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -107 | 42.5 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +156 | -186 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -114 | 42 -102 | +155 | -177 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +149 | -192 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -102 | +155 | -177 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | — | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -184 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Chargers, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $51 available; Under 42.5, only $247 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos) and 5 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -101 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +150 | +139 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +6.5should be Titans +6.5 at Kalshi · was +6.5▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans +6.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 39.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -116 | 38.5 -110 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -113 | 38.5 -106 | +257 | -308 |
All 26 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -116 | 38.5 -110 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +105 47¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +252 27¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -115 | 38.5 -112 | +230 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 -120 | 38 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 38.5 -108 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -116 | 38.5 -110 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7 -115 | 38.5 -112 | +230 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 38.5 -112 | +230 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Caesars | +7 -115 | 38.5 -114 | +250 | -320 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 38.5 -108 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -102 | 38.5 -108 | +265 | -330 |
| Fliff | +6.5 +100 | 38.5 -115 | +255 | -360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -112 | 38.5 -107 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 38.5 -110 | +248 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -113 | 38.5 -106 | +257 | -308 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +113 | 38.5 +100 | — | -300 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 38.5 -110 | +260 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 38.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +6.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Titans, now Damn Near Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 4 more.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +288 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +189 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +181 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +143 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 39.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +6.5 | +105 | -103 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +265 | +252 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +288 consensus.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmColts +2.5should be Colts +2 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings▲A Little Nasty · ColtsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Colts. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | -142 | +125 |
All 26 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -130 | +106 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -130 | +106 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 44 -114 | -130 | +106 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -106 | -139 | +117 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -118 | 44.5 -104 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -113 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -142 | +112 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | -142 | +125 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | — | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -137 | +116 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 44.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +2.5 · -105 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 26% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Colts.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +2.5, only $36 available; Over 44.5, only $55 available; Under 44.5, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Keenan Allen (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts) and 7 more.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +2.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +117 | +114 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +2.5should be Ravens +1 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 1, but the market has moved 9 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -132 | 44.5 +105 | -165 | +145 |
All 24 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -155 59¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 44.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 44 -108 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | -163 | +143 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 44.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 44.5 -109 | -150 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 44 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3 -104 | 44 -109 | -154 | +131 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 43.5 -113 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 42.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 44 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 44 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 44 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 44 -107 | -163 | +143 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -160 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -132 | 44.5 +105 | -165 | +145 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | — | -150 | +144 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 9.0 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Baltimore Ravens +3.5, only $371 available; Over 43.5, only $52 available; Under 43.5, only $268 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Backup QB out: Cooper Rush (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Chris Moore (WR, Ravens), Ethan Onianwa (OT, Falcons), Jared Ivey (LB, Falcons) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +196 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +206 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +126 |
| Market (21 books) | -2.5 | -150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 46.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.0 | -110 | -144 | +6.6% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +133 | +104 | +6.2% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.0 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.3.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers +3should be Packers +2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2, but the market has moved 5 points away from Packers since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 5.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 5.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Packers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -118 | 45.5 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +105 | 46 -102 | +132 | -150 |
All 26 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -118 | 45.5 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| Kalshi | — | — | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -112 | +117 | -143 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -118 | 45.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -118 | 45.5 -113 | +128 | -148 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -112 | +117 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -112 | +117 | -143 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 45.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -117 | 45.5 -112 | +129 | -152 |
| Courtside | +3 -116 | 45.5 -106 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -118 | 45.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -105 | +126 | -148 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -114 | 45.5 -110 | +128 | -148 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +122 | -156 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +105 | 46 -102 | +132 | -150 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 46.5 +104 | +138 | -144 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +127 | -150 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -115 | 45.5 -115 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 5.0 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $325 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Braxton Jones (OT, Bears), Aaron Banks (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +129 here against +140 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | -1.0 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +187 |
| Massey | -1.5 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +130 | +118 | +2.4% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +3.0 | -118 | -128 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +129 here against +140 consensus.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7should be Eagles +6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6, but the market has moved 4.3 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 43 -107 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -103 | 43 -103 | -315 | +262 |
All 26 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 43 -107 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -106 | 42.5 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 43 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| betPARX | -7 -106 | 42.5 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 42.5 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 43 -105 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 43 -105 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -115 | 42.5 -114 | -310 | +245 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -115 | 42.5 -113 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 42.5 -120 | -340 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 42.5 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 42.5 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 42.5 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 43 -104 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 +100 | 42.5 -110 | -340 | +248 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -103 | 43 -103 | -315 | +262 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 | — | -285 | +270 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 42.5 -120 | -319 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 4.3 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $10 available; Jacksonville Jaguars -6.5, only $282 available; Over 42.5, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Bigsby (RB, Eagles), DeVonta Smith (WR, Eagles), Christian Braswell (CB, Jaguars) and 2 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -116 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +266 | +247 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but 49ers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -102 | 47 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 47 -108 | -149 | +132 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -102 | 47 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 47 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -102 | 47 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 47 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 47 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -154 | +132 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 47.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -120 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +103 | 47 -107 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 47 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 47 -108 | -149 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 47.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 59°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $474 available; San Francisco 49ers +2.5, only $337 available; Over 46.5, only $139 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -183 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +138 | +128 | +1.9% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBengals -7should be Bengals -7 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +284 | -345 |
All 26 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +300 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +300 | -380 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +310 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -107 | 42 -110 | +303 | -380 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +300 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +300 | -385 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 42 -110 | +305 | -380 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 43 -105 | +280 | -360 |
| Caesars | +7 -105 | 42.5 -108 | +305 | -390 |
| Courtside | +7 -106 | 42.5 -108 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -118 | 42.5 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -405 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 42 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -115 | 42 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -115 | 42 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 42 -107 | +303 | -380 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +284 | -345 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -113 | 42.5 -113 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 42.5 -110 | +285 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 87°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Dolphins).
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $19 available; Under 42.5, only $383 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $288 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Colbie Young (WR, Bengals), Reese Taylor (CB, Dolphins) and 4 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +7.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +343 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +375 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +303 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | -113 | -106 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -345 | -301 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 40 -102 | -132 | +117 |
All 26 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 40 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 40 -109 | -132 | +110 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 40 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -115 | 39.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -105 | 40 -109 | -140 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 39.5 -118 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 39.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -102 | -130 | +110 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -120 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -120 | 40 -104 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -134 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -114 | 40 -102 | -132 | +117 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 40.5 +100 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -120 | -129 | +110 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 +100 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $16 available; New York Jets -2.5, only $287 available; Under 40.5, only $99 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Tylan Wallace (WR, Browns), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -127 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -122 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 39.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -124 | -108 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -130 | -114 | -3.2% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 45 -108 | -188 | +164 |
All 26 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -112 | 45.5 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -188 | +164 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4 -109 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -103 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -192 | +160 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 45.5 -104 | -210 | +176 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 45 -107 | -188 | +164 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -206 | +158 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -107 | 45 -108 | -188 | +164 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 45.5 +100 | -186 | +178 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -120 | 44.5 -120 | -197 | +165 |
| theScore Bet | -4 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $424 available; Under 45.5, only $483 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Jackson Powers-Johnson (G, Raiders) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -318 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -180 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -204 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -188 | -180 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -104 | 42 -110 | +114 | -134 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -106 | 42 -103 | +115 | -130 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -104 | 42 -110 | +114 | -134 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | — | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1 +100 | 42 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 42 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2 -112 | 42 -114 | +109 | -129 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -105 | 42 -104 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +106 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -106 | 42 -103 | +115 | -130 |
| Polymarket | — | 41.5 -108 | +117 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +111 | -130 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $400 available; New Orleans Saints +2.5, only $193 available; Minnesota Vikings -2.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Zach Wilson (Saints), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings), Noah Fant (TE, Saints), Donovan Jackson (G, Vikings) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +201 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +191 |
| Market (21 books) | +1.5 | +119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 | -116 | -111 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -134 | -124 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5.5should be Lions -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5 -106 | 54.5 -106 | +206 | -240 |
All 26 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 54 -107 | +185 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 54 -120 | +195 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 54 -107 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 53.5 -114 | +185 | -230 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Caesars | +5 -105 | 54.5 -109 | +199 | -240 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | +198 | -240 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +185 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 54 -115 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4.5 -110 | 54 -115 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4.5 -110 | 54 -115 | +195 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -105 | 54.5 -107 | +200 | -240 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +176 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -106 | 54.5 -106 | +206 | -240 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 | 54.5 | +212 | -223 |
| ReBet | — | 54.5 -110 | +178 | -212 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | +210 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Cardinals, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Cardinals).
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +5.5, only $10 available; Over 54.5, only $395 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Ben Bartch (G, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +199 here against +221 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +196 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +275 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +111 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.5 | +199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +5.0 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +199 | +201 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Arizona Cardinals since 10-03 15:28; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.9 consensus; moneyline +199 here against +221 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmRams -3should be Rams -2.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -106 | 54.5 -101 | -162 | +143 |
All 25 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -104 | 54 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3 -104 | 54 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -104 | 54 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 54 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 54.5 -105 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 54.5 -113 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 54.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 54.5 -110 | -152 | +128 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 54.5 -107 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -106 | 54.5 -101 | -162 | +143 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | — | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 55.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills +2.5, only $44 available; Buffalo Bills +3.5, only $250 available; Over 54.5, only $103 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Colby Parkinson (TE, Rams), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams), Jaylen Watson (CB, Rams) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -169 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -107 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -112 | -111 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +132 | +135 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-10-1 | 47.4% | -1.7 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 28-32 | 46.7% | -6.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 232 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-06 11:53.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 197 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 288 |
| FPI | 11.25 | 225 |
| SP+ | 11.26 | 225 |
| Massey | 11.31 | 168 |
| Sagarin | 12.42 | 278 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 171 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 168 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 171 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 197 |
The line archive, 288 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 98, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 273 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.56, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 47 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 9.44 | 64 |
| Massey | 9.48 | 47 |
| FPI | 9.79 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 9.81 | 64 |
| nfelo | 9.93 | 63 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 47 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
The line archive, 64 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.65 points better than the close on average over 59 games. The close misses the final by 9.66, the open by 9.71, our raw ratings number by 9.91, Pinnacle's close by 9.67. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.65, Polymarket 8.60, Bally Bet 9.15.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 138 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 60 times, against it 30, average 0.44 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 83.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| ratings 0% | 311 | 10.63 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 311 | 10.56 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 311 | 10.42 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 311 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 1-1 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Sagarin no vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 138 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 60 of 138 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 83. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina at Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh -3.5 | -3.5 | -4 | +0.5 | no call |
| Old Dominion at App State | Appalachian State -7 | -7 | -9.2 | +2.2 | no call |
| Ole Miss at Vanderbilt | Vanderbilt +10.4 | 10.4 | 10 | +0.4 | no call |
| Tulane at Army | Tulane Green +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Tulsa at Navy | Tulsa Golden +2.6 | 2.6 | 2.5 | +0.1 | no call |
| UAB at Memphis | Memphis -14.2 | -14.2 | -14.5 | +0.3 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 239 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 176 | 13.4 | 55-66 (45%) | 35-36 (49%) |
| Massey | 178 | 12.8 | 39-44 (47%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 181 | 12.9 | 40-46 (47%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 54 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 50 | 11.1 | 13-18 (42%) | 4-7 (36%) |
| FPI | 47 | 10.6 | 10-5 (67%) | 6-2 (75%) |
| The blend | 50 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 20 | 56% | 50% |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 73 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.
What's changed since Mon 5 Oct, 11:04pm
- MovedIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies switched from the spread to the moneyline: now Iowa Hawkeyes ML at +140.
- NewUCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys is now a pick: UCF Knights +8.5 at -110.
- NewNew York Giants at Washington Commanders is now a pick: New York Giants +4.5 at -120.
- NewDenver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers is now a pick: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 at -110.
- NewBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons is new to the board: Baltimore Ravens +3.0 at -110.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.2Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguarstoward Jacksonville Jaguarswith the public
- → 3.3Washington State Cougars at Utah State Aggiestoward Utah State Aggieswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 3%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 244 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 63 | 9.93 |
| The market | 352 | 10.81 |
| Massey | 215 | 10.91 |
| FPI | 273 | 11.00 |
| SP+ | 225 | 11.26 |
| Sagarin | 342 | 11.93 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 155-146 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-11 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 904882 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.57 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.52 |
| betPARX | 255 | 1.47 |
| Bally Bet | 255 | 1.46 |
| BetRivers | 463 | 1.45 |
| Kalshi | 261 | 1.44 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.44 |
| BetOnline.ag | 433 | 1.39 |
| LowVig.ag | 423 | 1.39 |
| MyBookie.ag | 355 | 1.36 |
| Courtside | 219 | 1.35 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 253 | 1.25 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.24 |
| Fanatics | 399 | 1.23 |
| theScore Bet | 252 | 1.17 |
| Caesars | 348 | 1.16 |
| BetUS | 361 | 1.16 |
| Bovada | 424 | 1.12 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 60 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | 423 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.06 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 60 | 1.04 |
| Fliff | 202 | 0.94 |
| BetAnything | 235 | 0.94 |
| Polymarket | 95 | 0.77 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 2 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ unchanged for 8 days
- Sagarin updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.