Nasty Picks
Arkansas at Utah▲Arkansas +11.5-105+2.9%sat 9:15 pmAll 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Oklahoma at Michigan▲Michigan +5.5-105 · 3.0% after the price, the bar is 3%sat 11:00 ama pick at +6UCF at PittsburghUCF to winour data says 34 in 100 · +220Dogsat 2:30 pmRavens at ColtsColts +3.5-110 · 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%sun 12:00 pma pick at +4A Little Nasty
Buck's Take
Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.
Worth a look: 2 sides (Michigan +5.5, Colts +3.5). These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.
Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, the ratings in agreement, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Candidates have the agreement but not the rest, and the all-sources rule itself is still being graded (0 totals and 0 sides so far). Stale numbers are proven and switch on inside 48 hours.
Moved since the last run: Up: Oklahoma at Michigan (Damn Near Nasty, was A Little Nasty · Michigan); Arkansas at Utah (Damn Near Nasty, was A Little Nasty · Arkansas); Falcons at Steelers (Not Nasty, was Held, QB out); North Dakota State at Air Force (A Little Nasty · Under, weather, was Not Nasty). Down: Arizona State at Texas A&M (Not Nasty, was A Little Nasty · Texas A&M); Wake Forest at Purdue (A Little Nasty · Purdue, was Damn Near Nasty).
Half Nasty (betting anyway): Buck likes Oklahoma at Michigan, Michigan +5.5 (the ratings make it a pick'em) and UCF at Pittsburgh, UCF to win (the ratings make it Pittsburgh by 4).
Tomorrow
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksPatriots at SeahawksNFL tomorrow 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 3.5, our data says Seahawks by 3.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +104 | 44.5 -107 | -175 | +154 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -3.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Ben Brown (C, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -162 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | -110 | +113 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -180 | -153 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Sep 10
2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams49ers at RamsNFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral49ers to winour data says 40 in 100 · +165 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -111 | 48 -110 | -206 | +179 |
Also out: Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Alex Johnson (CB, Rams) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -165 |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +165 | +148 | +2.7% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesFlorida A&M at MiamiCFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
Opened -53.5, now -54.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Miami).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (5 books) | -54.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 0.6.
Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fri Sep 11
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Rutgers at Boston CollegeRutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesRutgers at Boston CollegeCFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pmOver 53.5should be 54.4 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Boston College by 3, we say Boston College by 2.5. Nothing there.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -106 | -170 | +144 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Opened -4.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Rutgers).
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +137 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -198 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +135 | +132 | +0.5% |
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.0 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksMissouri at KansasCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmOver 50should be 50.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Missouri by 5, we say Missouri by 5. Nothing there.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 50 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -107 | 50 -109 | +177 | -214 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 40% chance of rain.
Opened +7.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Kansas).
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $289 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +292 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +180 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +170 | +169 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +5.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.5 consensus.
Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsVillanova at LouisvilleCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Villanova ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | +3021 3¢ |
Opened -35.5, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Louisville).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $275 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (4 books) | -36.5 | -2475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Louisville Cardinals since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 1.0.
Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackRichmond at NC StateCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (5 books) | -30.5 | -2290 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersNorfolk State at VirginiaCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -43.5, now -44.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (4 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.
Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sat Sep 12
78 gamesBest: Arkansas +11.5, Nasty PickArkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pmArkansas +11.5should be Arkansas +10.5 · getting 1 pt · -105 at TOM▲Nasty Pick
Nasty Pick. Take Arkansas +11.5 at -105 at TOM. Market says Utah by 11.5, we say Utah by 10.5.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -475 | +345 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -458 81¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -12 -109 | 56.5 -112 | -500 | +361 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Arkansas, now Damn Near Nasty.
Opened -11.5, now -12.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Arkansas, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.5.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $353 available; Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $416 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -455 here against -386 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -246 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -137 |
| Market (11 books) | -11.5 | -455 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 62.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +11.5 | -105 | -118 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +345 | +304 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus; moneyline -455 here against -386 consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesOklahoma at MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amMichigan +5.5should be Michigan +4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +4.5▲Damn Near Nasty
Damn Near Nasty. Michigan +5.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +172 | -222 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -106 | 43 -114 | +184 | -224 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Michigan, now Damn Near Nasty.
Opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.0.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +180 here against +196 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +115 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.5 | +180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +5.5 | -105 | -118 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +172 | +159 | +1.8% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus; moneyline +180 here against +196 consensus.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at PittsburghCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUCF +7should be UCF +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +8.5Damn Near Nasty
Damn Near Nasty. UCF to win: all 3 ratings our side, 2.4% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -109 | 57 -115 | -285 | +228 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F, 34% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +7.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline -268 here against -242 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -204 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -152 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UCF | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +220 | +197 | +2.4% |
| Spread | UCF Knights +7.0 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: moneyline -268 here against -242 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLACFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmSan Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +9.5 · getting 2 pts · was +10.5A Little Nasty · San Diego State
A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 9.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 53.0 as well.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -482 | +351 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: moneyline -431 here against -377 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -209 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -616 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.5 | -431 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.5 | -105 | -129 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +340 | +279 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: moneyline -431 here against -377 consensus.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersUL Monroe at UABCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 55.5should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans UL Monroe too: market says UAB by 10, we say UAB by 9.5, but at -105 that's too thin.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 55.5 -108 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +100 | 56 -109 | -408 | +307 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F, 42% chance of rain.
Opened -7.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 2.9 away from UL Monroe, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +11.0. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $104 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -368 here against -327 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -211 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UL Monroe | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.0 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +295 | +275 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -108 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.4 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -368 here against -327 consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsSouth Florida at ArmyCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 47.5should be 49 · getting 1.5 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 47.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3. Nothing there.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -171 | +141 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -106 | 48 -104 | -177 | +149 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.
A play at +4.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Army Black Knights -3.5, only $224 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -166 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +141 | +139 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.9 consensus.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersWake Forest at PurdueCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amPurdue to winour data says 41 in 100 · +153 · a price bet, they lose more often than not▼A Little Nasty · Purdue
A Little Nasty, Purdue. Market says Wake Forest by 4, we say Wake Forest by 3.5. At +153 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -114 | 49 -110 | +153 | -183 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 +101 48¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -112 | 50 -101 | +146 | -173 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Purdue.
Opened +5.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Purdue, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +5.0 or better.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.7 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +143 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | +102 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -122 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +153 | +145 | +1.3% |
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +4.0 | -114 | -116 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.7 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersMississippi State at MinnesotaCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 54.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 55.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Minnesota too: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5, but at -102 that's too thin.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -121 53¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -115 | 55.5 -109 | -109 | -107 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.
Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.5 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +2.5.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -146 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -102 | -105 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +102 consensus.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenUNLV at North TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmOver 57should be 58.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 3.5, we say UNLV by 3.5. Nothing there.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +166 36¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -111 | 57 -109 | +152 | -181 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward North Texas).
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +420 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +149 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +137 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 64.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +150 | +144 | +0.9% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +3.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at IowaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmOver 41should be 41.7 · getting 0.7 pts · was 42A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. Nothing there.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -115 | 41 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 41 -108 | -614 | +423 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
A play at -13.0 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -709 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -457 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -728 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -115 | -115 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -650 | -500 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesApp State at East CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amUnder 56.5should be 56 · getting 0.5 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 56.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.3 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says East Carolina by 7.5, we say East Carolina by 8.5. Nothing there.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -320 | +245 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -104 | 56.5 -108 | -330 | +258 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 38% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward App State).
TOM: moneyline -306 here against -273 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -400 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -347 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate App State | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -7.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -320 | -244 | -5.2% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: moneyline -306 here against -273 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsArizona at BYUCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmOver 49.5should be 50 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. Nothing there.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -116 | 49.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -107 | 50.5 -102 | -311 | +245 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars ML, only $141 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -226 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -240 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -240 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -7.5 | -116 | +117 | -7.5% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -295 | -225 | -5.4% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCalifornia at SyracuseCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 57should be 56.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Syracuse by 3.5, we say Syracuse by 3. Nothing there.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 57 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -118 | 56 -117 | -168 | +142 |
Opened +2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.7 toward Syracuse). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +133 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.5 | -120 | -117 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +135 | +137 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 55should be 56.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11.5. Nothing there.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 55 -115 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -110 | 55 -114 | +370 | -515 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +270 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +274 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +244 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +387 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +370 | +346 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 51should be 51.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 12. Nothing there.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 51 -117 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -112 | 51 -117 | +399 | -569 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.
Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.5 | +757 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +217 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Sam Houston | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +400 | +381 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -117 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at TulaneCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmOver 49.5should be 50.1 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 10. Nothing there.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | — | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -111 | 50 -107 | -385 | +293 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -11.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -368 here against -313 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -535 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -311 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave -9.5 | -112 | +100 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | -385 | -293 | -4.9% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus; moneyline -368 here against -313 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmUnder 48weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weather
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, we say North Dakota State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 48 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -102 | 47.5 -106 | +115 | -135 |
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Opened +6.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +138 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +2.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +110 | +120 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida InternationalCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 8.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 8.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -101 | 48 -101 | -409 | +307 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls ML, only $437 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -125 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Florida International | |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -112 | -131 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +310 | +256 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise StateCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmMemphis to winour data says 30 in 100 · +270 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 7.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -111 | 54.5 -112 | -365 | +280 |
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Boise State).
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -275 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +270 | +229 | +3.4% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.5 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.5 consensus; moneyline -330 here against -295 consensus.
Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesArizona State at Texas A&MCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amTexas A&M -14.5should be Texas A&M -15 · getting 0.5 pts▼Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -104 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 +102 | 51.5 -106 | -654 | +444 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Texas A&M, now Not Nasty.
A play at -13.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -809 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -732 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -571 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.5 | -487 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.5 | -104 | -113 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -677 | -530 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsAlabama at KentuckyCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmKentucky +10should be Kentucky +10 · was +8.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -390 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | — | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +317 | -425 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F, 31% chance of rain.
Opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.0. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -10.5, only $7 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $215 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +302 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +245 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +10.0 | -105 | -108 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +300 | +290 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.1 consensus.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsWashington State at Kansas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amOver 49should be 49.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -112 | 49 -112 | -1084 | +640 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 39% chance of rain.
Opened -16.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -724 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.0 | -700 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +19.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +665 | +724 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.5 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysOregon at Oklahoma StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amUnder 57should be 56.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 60.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +22.5 -104 | 57 -112 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +22.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | +951 | -1965 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F, 46% chance of rain.
Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +995 |
| Sagarin | +23.5 | +1721 |
| Massey | pk | -102 |
| Market (12 books) | +22.5 | +1041 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5 | -104 | +125 | -6.5% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +1050 | +1314 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -108 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesOld Dominion at Virginia TechCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 18.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 17.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 18.5.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -121 53¢ | — | -869 89¢ | +685 12¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -108 | 51 -109 | -1113 | +652 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F, 35% chance of rain.
Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $104 available; Under 50.5, only $294 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -757 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -475 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1217 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.5 | -699 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +18.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +674 | +758 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsPenn State at TempleCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Penn State by 24, our data says Penn State by 23.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 24.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -102 | 49.5 -111 | +1068 | -2363 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1604 |
| FPI | +20.0 | +1049 |
| Sagarin | +26.0 | +2418 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -105 |
| Market (12 books) | +24.0 | +1195 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +24.0 | -110 | +135 | -9.8% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1278 | +1700 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +24.0 here against +23.6 consensus.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsWestern Kentucky at GeorgiaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 39Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -41 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -118 | 54 -112 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 86°F.
Opened -35.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 4.5 toward Georgia).
TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -36.0 | -13246 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6508 |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | -42502 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -157 |
| Market (11 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0 | -110 | -195 | +13.7% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniDuke at IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 6, our data says Illinois by 6Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 53.5 -107 | -223 | +184 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F, 24% chance of rain.
Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils +6.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | +175 | +188 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansEastern Michigan at Michigan StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 17.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17 -113 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17 -108 | 50.5 -107 | -970 | +592 |
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -950 |
| Sagarin | -21.0 | -1227 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -144 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.0 | -631 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.0 | -113 | -131 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -924 | -749 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesMaryland at UConnCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Maryland by 13.5, our data says Maryland by 13Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Maryland by 13.5, we say Maryland by 13. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -109 | 52.5 -111 | +350 | -480 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Opened +13.5, now +12.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UConn).
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +529 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +295 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +443 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +387 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +13.5 | -115 | +102 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +370 | +409 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread +13.5 here against +12.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishRice at Notre DameCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 54.5should be 53.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 52.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | -63883 |
| FPI | -41.5 | -38512 |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | -136447 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (11 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +44.5 | -110 | -167 | +10.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsUTSA at Texas StateCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 64.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 64.5 -110 | -118 | +101 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).
TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -141 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +119 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | 71.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +1.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +105 | +117 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 64.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.
TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesUtah State at WashingtonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmUnder 56should be 55.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 56.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -108 | 55.5 -109 | — | +1431 |
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F, 30% chance of rain.
Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2445 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -877 |
| Sagarin | -34.5 | -10280 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -153 |
| Market (12 books) | -26.5 | -1539 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +134 | -9.6% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1600 | +2214 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresDelaware at VanderbiltCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmNo betmarket says Vanderbilt by 21, our data says Vanderbilt by 21Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 21.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -106 | 54.5 -107 | -1531 | +809 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 36% chance of rain.
Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2097 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -587 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2136 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -21.0 | -864 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +21.0 | -115 | +131 | -10.2% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +836 | +1162 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at OhioCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | -138 | +118 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F, 23% chance of rain.
Opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ohio).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -103 | +104 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +120 | +125 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at NebraskaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 52.5should be 50.8 · getting 1.7 ptsNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 28.5.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -29 -108 | 52 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F, 25% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.5 | -2684 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -2042 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | -6603 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (11 books) | -28.5 | -2074 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +28.5 | -105 | +138 | -9.2% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2400 | +3347 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -112 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.0 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Kennesaw State by 9, our data says Kennesaw State by 9Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9, we say Kennesaw State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 54 -110 | -335 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -111 | 54 -108 | -363 | +279 |
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +260 | +263 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at MarshallCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Marshall by 13.5, our data says Marshall by 12.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 13.5, we say Marshall by 12.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -691 | +462 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 30% chance of rain.
Opened -17.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -361 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.5 | -486 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 60.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.5 | -105 | +100 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +466 | +402 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 54.5 · getting 1 pt · was 56.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 20.5.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -109 | 55.5 -108 | -1485 | +793 |
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 84°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2522 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1922 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -859 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -20.5 | -110 | -157 | +8.8% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -1496 | -1338 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSUCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 52.6 · getting 2.9 ptsNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 36.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -116 | 56 -112 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -31.5, now -35.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward LSU).
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.3 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -6293 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6391 |
| Sagarin | -34.0 | -9537 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -148 |
| Market (12 books) | -36.0 | -4326 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +36.0 | -110 | +133 | -9.4% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4500 | +9877 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -133 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -35.3 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at TexasCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 48.5 -114 | -124 | +106 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 96°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +228 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +105 | +111 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 52should be 51.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 51.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +27 -116 | 51 -119 | +1303 | — |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F, 47% chance of rain.
Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.0 | +2195 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2451 |
| Sagarin | +27.5 | +3118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1438 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +148 | -12.1% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2568 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.
The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmUnder 54.5should be 52.2 · getting 2.3 pts · was 52.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 32.5.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -108 | 54.5 -117 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -115 | 55 -106 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 47% chance of rain.
Opened -29.5, now -32.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Auburn).
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $153 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.5 | -10097 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -933 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | -8899 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -32.5 | -2861 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +32.5 | -112 | +122 | -7.8% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +2728 | +4770 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -103 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole MissCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmUnder 61should be 60.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 61.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -47.5 -113 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47.5 -108 | 61.5 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F, 33% chance of rain.
Opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).
Kalshi thin: Under 61.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -43.0 | -50019 |
| FPI | -33.0 | -7627 |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | -180764 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -175 |
| Market (9 books) | -47.5 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +47.5 | -107 | -191 | +13.9% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +9950 | +86588 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.4 consensus.
The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmOver 45should be 45.7 · getting 0.7 pts · was 48.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -104 | 46 -104 | -1078 | +638 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1887 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -601 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (11 books) | -18.0 | -689 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 47.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +675 | +685 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -107 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 31.5, our data says USC by 30.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.5.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31.5 -112 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31 -108 | 60 -108 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward USC).
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $492 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $253 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -30.5 | -5134 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3373 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Louisiana | |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.5 | -2645 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.5 | -108 | +141 | -10.4% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2449 | +5077 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.1 consensus.
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsEast Tennessee State at North CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.5 | -4086 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersHoward at IndianaCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Howard Bison, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 64.5 | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 64.5, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -55.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
Howard Bison is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesWofford at Kent StateCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Wofford Terriers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -14.5, now -13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Wofford). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -13.5 | -500 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-07 09:34.
Wofford Terriers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasColgate at Central MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Colgate Raiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
Opened -26.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Colgate).
Kalshi thin: Colgate Raiders ML, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -25.5 | -1416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-07 09:34.
Colgate Raiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksHoly Cross at Miami (OH)CFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Holy Cross Crusaders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -32.5 | -2740 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
Holy Cross Crusaders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia MountaineersUT Martin at West VirginiaCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover UT Martin Skyhawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -34.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 5.0 toward West Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -39.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-07 20:37; total has moved up 4.0.
UT Martin Skyhawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsStony Brook at Ball StateCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -16.0 | -600 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.
Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsRobert Morris at AkronCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Robert Morris Colonials, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $377 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -28.5 | -2292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | — |
Robert Morris Colonials is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCentral Connecticut Blue at ToledoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Central Connecticut Blue Devils, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Central Connecticut Blue Devils is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesWeber State at ColoradoCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Weber State Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -34.5 | -3069 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | — |
Weber State Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesWagner at James MadisonCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Wagner Seahawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Wagner Seahawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenSacred Heart at MassachusettsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Sacred Heart Pioneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | +1464 6¢ |
Opened -25.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart Pioneers since 09-07 09:34.
Sacred Heart Pioneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansAlabama State at TroyCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Alabama State Hornets, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -22.5 | -970 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Alabama State Hornets is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosMercyhurst at New MexicoCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Mercyhurst Lakers ML, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysNorthern Colorado at WyomingCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Northern Colorado Bears, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
Kalshi thin: Northern Colorado Bears ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1298 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | — |
Northern Colorado Bears is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell Fighting at FloridaCFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Campbell Fighting Camels, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell Fighting ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 67.5 | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 67.5, only $304 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -49.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 67.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
Campbell Fighting Camels is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesGardner-Webb Runnin at LibertyCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb Runnin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
Kalshi thin: Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $452 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -27.5 | -1606 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western MichiganCFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Monmouth Hawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Opened -27.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Monmouth).
Kalshi thin: Western Michigan Broncos ML, only $18 available; Monmouth Hawks ML, only $58 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -25.5 | -1328 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Monmouth Hawks since 09-07 09:34.
Monmouth Hawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at CincinnatiCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Western Carolina Catamounts, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $208 available; Under 60.5, only $208 available; Western Carolina Catamounts ML, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -36.5 | -3066 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Western Carolina Catamounts is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Southern Utah Thunderbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -21.0 | -867 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern University at HoustonCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Southern University Jaguars, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $204 available; Under 60.5, only $278 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -51.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Southern University Jaguars is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern IllinoisCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Illinois State Redbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | +3.5 | +149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Illinois State Redbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri StateCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Lindenwood Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -21.5 | -1154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Lindenwood Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Towson Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $192 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
Towson Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at WisconsinCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Western Illinois Leathernecks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $281 available; Under 49.5, only $378 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (1 books) | -36.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Western Illinois Leathernecks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal CarolinaCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Fordham Rams, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | — |
Kalshi thin: Fordham Rams ML, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -31.5 | -2740 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Fordham Rams is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at BaylorCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Prairie View A&M Panthers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $156 available; Under 55.5, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
Prairie View A&M Panthers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling State at TCUCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Grambling State Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Grambling State Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San Jose StateCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -20.5 | -1100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Texas Southern Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
Kalshi thin: Texas Southern Tigers ML, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -27.5 | -1956 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Texas Southern Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Montana State Bobcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Nevada).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | +4.5 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-07 09:34.
Montana State Bobcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawaii RainbowCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -311 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Ravens at Colts, Colts +3.5.Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmColts +3.5should be Colts +3 · getting 0.5 ptsDamn Near Nasty
Damn Near Nasty. Colts +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.0% after the price, the bar is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | — | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -116 | +154 | -176 |
A play at +4.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $101 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $183 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Will Mallory (TE, Colts) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +160 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -110 | -119 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +150 | +144 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBrowns +9should be Browns +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8A Little Nasty · Browns
A Little Nasty, Browns. Market says Jaguars by 9, we say Jaguars by 8. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 -112 | -391 | +316 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 87°F.
Opened -8.0, now -9.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out, already in the ratings: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -192 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -287 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -336 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +320 | +278 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.0 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Cardinals too: market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9, but at -110 that's too thin.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +107 | 47 -112 | -506 | +393 |
A play at +10.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: James Conner (RB, Cardinals), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -165 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -368 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -415 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +10.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +400 | +318 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 39should be 41.2 · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 39.0. Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Titans by 1, we say Titans by 1.5. Nothing there.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 39.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 39 -111 | -119 | +106 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
A play at +1.0 or better.
Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -139 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans -1.0 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -124 | -121 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmOver 48should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Cowboys by 2.5, we say Cowboys by 2. Nothing there.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +112 | 47.5 -121 | +142 | -161 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $362 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +135 | +130 | +0.9% |
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 47.5should be 46.7 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 47.5. Massey say under by 3.2 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. Nothing there.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 47.5 +101 48¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +114 | 47.5 +103 | +145 | -165 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers +2.5, only $89 available; Under 47.5, only $226 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +110 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +140 | +135 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.4% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmUnder 49.5should be 48.9 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 49.5. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. Nothing there.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -105 | 49.5 -111 | -321 | +267 |
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints +6.5, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -214 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +260 | +236 | +2.0% |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +7.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmOver 44should be 45 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Over 44.0. Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, we say Bills by 1. Nothing there.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +1.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 44 -118 | +101 | -114 |
Opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bills).
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -107 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +105 |
| Sagarin | pk | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +100 | +110 | -2.3% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmUnder 46should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 3.6 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. Nothing there.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 46 -112 | -121 | +108 |
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -169 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +114 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +102 | +114 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmBuccaneers to winour data says 39 in 100 · +171 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -126 54¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -104 | 51 +104 | -204 | +177 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -185 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +171 | +158 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmDolphins +3.5should be Dolphins +3.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -116 52¢ | -182 63¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 40.5 -110 | -182 | +159 |
A play at +4.5 or better.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -153 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +155 | +150 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmFalcons +3.5should be Falcons +3.5▲Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3.5, we say Steelers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 42.5 -105 | -181 | +158 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Held, QB out, now Not Nasty.
A play at +4.5 or better.
QB out, already in the ratings: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -149 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +155 | +151 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 4.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 4.5, we say Eagles by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -239 69¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -106 | 44.5 -102 | -225 | +194 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 30% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $283 available; Washington Commanders ML, only $274 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -162 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -196 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -225 | -178 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL mon 14 sep, 7:15 pmUnder 43should be 42.2 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Under 43.0. Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a lean, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 3, we say Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 43 -115 | -149 | +131 |
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $0 available; Under 43.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Patrick Mahomes (Chiefs), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -146 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +122 | +138 | -3.1% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Sunday September 6
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSaturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are leans, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Scoreboard
Loading scores...
How Monday 7 September went
Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.
| What we said | Right-wrong | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Ruled out by the guardrails | 0-0-1 | — |
Game by game
How it's going
It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
We read 100 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 3 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.
What's changed since mon 7 sep, 11:25 pm
- OffOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines dropped off. It was Michigan Wolverines ML.
- OffArkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes dropped off. It was Arkansas Razorbacks +11.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 5.0UT Martin Skyhawks at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineerswith the public
- → 3.7Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 4 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 77399 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.74 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 38 | 2.71 |
| BetOnline.ag | 69 | 0.98 |
| LowVig.ag | 66 | 0.95 |
| DraftKings | 73 | 0.90 |
| BetMGM | 69 | 0.80 |
| BetRivers | 86 | 0.68 |
| FanDuel | 106 | 0.66 |
| MyBookie.ag | 66 | 0.65 |
| BetUS | 69 | 0.63 |
| TOM | 68 | 0.55 |
| Bovada | 68 | 0.53 |
| Caesars | 70 | 0.51 |
| Pinnacle | 68 | 0.45 |
| Fanatics | 99 | 0.42 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today