Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 6:03 am · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:18am✓MasseySun 12:04am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 142 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pm✓FPISun 6:02am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 8:05am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Eagles at TitansTitans +7.5-120 · 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.4%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (2.7%) · TOM +7.5 at -120 (2.5%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.3%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -120 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Jaguars at BroncosJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +3 at -113 (0.5%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +3 at -120 (-1.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-1.3%).Vikings at BearsUnder 47.5weather: 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (1.5%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.2%) · BetMGM 48 at -112 (0.8%) · Caesars 47.5 at -105 (0.8%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 48); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins by a hair.

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Half a step from the full receipt. That's the job: waiting for half a step.

Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 1 sneaky; the strongest is Jaguars +3 (Jaguars at Broncos) at 0.5% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage.

If you're playing one, it's Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. The ratings make it Eagles by 5.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Moved closer since the 12:57am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 12:57am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Commanders at Cowboys 3:25pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Cowboys -3.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -4.5 to -4.0; the price from +101 to -107.
Wake Forest at Louisville Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Waiting now
A Little Nasty at Wake Forest +14.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

Today

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL 12:00pm

Titans +7.5

should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 7.5TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 61.6 pts our side

FPI

Eagles by 52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Eagles by 52.3 pts our side

Massey

Eagles by 6.51.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eagles by 70.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.55 pts over the market

FPI

40.51 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.53 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 38.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -120	39.5 -110	+260	-335
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -102	+262	-315

All 24 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -120	39.5 -110	+260	-335
Kalshi	+7.5 -126 54¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+7 -107	39.5 -110	+265	-345
BetAnything	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+260	-330
BetMGM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -120	39.5 -110	+270	-335
betPARX	+7 -107	39.5 -110	+265	-345
BetRivers	+7 -107	39.5 -110	+265	-345
BetUS	+7.5 -120	39.5 -110	+272	-335
Bovada	+7 -110	39.5 -115	+260	-320
Caesars	+7 -109	39.5 -109	+270	-335
Courtside	—	37.5 +116	+256	-302
DraftKings	+7 -108	39.5 -110	+250	-310
Fanatics	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+260	-330
FanDuel	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+285	-355
Fliff	+7.5 -120	39.5 -115	+280	-400
Hard Rock Bet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+275	-350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+275	-350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -117	39.5 -107	+270	-335
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+285	-360
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -102	+262	-315
ReBet	+7 -109	39.5 -110	+285	-360
theScore Bet	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+280	-360

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.5 · -120 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Titans): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.4%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (2.7%) · TOM +7.5 at -120 (2.5%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +285 at FanDuel

We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Titans loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel +285 (4.0%) · Kalshi 25¢ (3.6%) · Caesars +270 (2.9%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +260 (2.2%) · DraftKings +250 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 39.5 at -109 (0.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 51¢ (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -120 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +272 here against +302 consensus.

Courtside has the total at 37.5 while Pinnacle is at 40. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.0	+206
FPI	+5.0	+183
Sagarin	+5.0	+188
Massey	+6.5	+216
Market (22 books)	+7.5	+272

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+285	+234	+4.0%
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.5	-120	-133	+2.5%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.8 consensus; moneyline +272 here against +302 consensus.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL 3:05pm

Jaguars +3

should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at Caesars

A Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 2. At -113 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 2.5TOM, -119

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 11.7 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 35.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Broncos by 11.6 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 13.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Broncos by 20.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.31.2 pts under the market

FPI

41.93.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.12.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -113	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -107	-150	+132

All 24 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -113	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetAnything	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-2.5 -125	45.5 -108	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -119	45.5 -113	-153	+133
betPARX	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetRivers	-3 -105	45 -110	-152	+125
BetUS	-3 +100	45.5 -115	-150	+129
Bovada	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-3 -107	45.5 -110	-150	+127
Courtside	—	61.5 -1085	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 +100	45.5 -108	-155	+130
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-148	+126
Fliff	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+133
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-151	+128
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -107	-150	+132
ReBet	-3 -110	45 -110	-151	+128
theScore Bet	-3 -105	45.5 -105	-150	+130

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -113 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): Caesars +3 at -113 (0.5%) · Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +3 at -120 (-1.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +128 (42¢) at Kalshi

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +130 (0.4%) · Kalshi or TOM +129 (0.1%) · Caesars or FanDuel +127 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +125 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -107 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM or Kalshi 45.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · Caesars 45.5 at -109 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -113 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F, 22% chance of rain.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	+3.0	+143
Sagarin	-1.0	-113
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-113	-115	+0.5%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+128	+128	-0.0%
Total	Under 45.5	-107	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL 12:00pm

Under 47.5

weather: 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 47.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 8.5

FPI

Bears by 8.5

Sagarin

Bears by 6

Massey

Bears by 3.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 5.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

50.93.4 pts over the market

FPI

41.65.9 pts under the market

Weather

-4.520 mph wind, 63% chance of rain, takes 4.5 points off

Nasty Number

41.85.7 pts under the market

Under 47.5 is a weather call. 20 mph wind and 63% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	48.5 +104	-213	+184

All 24 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+181 34¢
Bally Bet	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-220	+180
BetMGM	-4.5 -110	48 -108	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+183
betPARX	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-215	+170
BetRivers	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-215	+170
BetUS	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-215	+183
Bovada	-4.5 -110	47.5 -115	-220	+180
Caesars	-4.5 -109	47.5 -115	-218	+183
Courtside	—	63.5 -943	-200	+174
DraftKings	-4.5 -118	47.5 -118	-205	+170
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-220	+180
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	47.5 -114	-210	+176
Fliff	-4.5 -115	47.5 -115	-240	+180
Hard Rock Bet	-5 -110	48 -110	-225	+185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5 -110	48 -110	-225	+185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5 -110	48 -110	-225	+185
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -103	47.5 -107	-215	+183
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-214	+178
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	48.5 +104	-213	+184
ReBet	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-214	+178
theScore Bet	-4.5 -115	47.5 -110	-210	+175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-2.1%) · Caesars -4.5 at -109 (-2.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -118 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -205 at DraftKings

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings -205 (-1.6%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM -208 (-1.9%) · TOM -215 (-2.6%) · Caesars or Fanatics -218 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 4.5 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (1.5%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.2%) · BetMGM 48 at -112 (0.8%) · Caesars 47.5 at -105 (0.8%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Vikings).

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-202
FPI	-8.5	-208
Sagarin	-6.0	-152
Massey	-3.5	-116
Market (22 books)	-4.5	-206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	41.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -4.5	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-205	-191	-1.6%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-13 18:15; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals

NFL 3:25pm

Cardinals +3.5

should be Cardinals +4 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +6

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Seahawks by 4TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 51.2 pts against us

FPI

Cardinals by 4.58.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 6.52.4 pts against us

Massey

Seahawks by 1.52.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 40.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Cardinals. nfelo at Seahawks by 5 and Sagarin at Seahawks by 6.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cardinals is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.94.4 pts over the market

FPI

37.72.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.30.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 -104	+169	-194

All 24 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetAnything	+4 -115	40.5 -110	+170	-200
BetMGM	+4 -112	41 -108	+170	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+174	-200
betPARX	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetRivers	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetUS	+4 -115	40.5 -110	+170	-200
Bovada	+3.5 -110	41 -115	+165	-195
Caesars	+4 -114	40.5 -118	+174	-209
Courtside	—	58.5 -2356	+174	-200
DraftKings	+3.5 +100	40.5 -115	+170	-205
Fanatics	+3.5 -105	41 -110	+165	-200
FanDuel	+4.5 -120	41.5 -102	+176	-210
Fliff	+3.5 -105	41.5 -105	+170	-225
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	41 -110	+180	-210
LowVig.ag	+4 -113	40.5 -110	+174	-200
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	40.5 -110	+176	-210
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 -104	+169	-194
ReBet	+4 -110	41.5 -110	+173	-206
theScore Bet	+4 -110	41.5 +100	+180	-215

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cardinals): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (2.2%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.0%) · BetMGM +4 at -112 (0.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 50¢ (0.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -120 (0.4%).

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +170 at DraftKings

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Cardinals to win): FanDuel +176 (2.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +174 (2.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +170 (1.7%) · Fanatics +165 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 40.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · BetMGM 41 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (-1.2%) · Fanatics 41 at -110 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 2.0 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+251
FPI	-4.5	-129
Sagarin	+6.5	+294
Massey	+1.5	+162
Market (22 books)	+4.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +3.5	+100	-109	+2.2%
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+170	+158	+1.7%
Total	Over 40.5	-113	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL 12:00pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +8

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 9TOM, -102

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 8.50.5 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 9.50.3 pts against us

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 7.51.4 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 63 pts our side

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 8.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Browns. FPI at Buccaneers by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.53 pts over the market

FPI

40.60.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +107	42 +103	-385	+312

All 24 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+325
Kalshi	-7.5 -112 51¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	41.5 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-8 -110	41 -120	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-9 -102	41.5 -110	-435	+340
betPARX	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetRivers	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetUS	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-7.5 -110	41.5 -105	-400	+300
Caesars	-7.5 -109	41.5 -107	-420	+325
Courtside	—	64.5 -2659	-426	+350
DraftKings	-7.5 -112	41.5 -110	-440	+340
Fanatics	-7.5 -110	41 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 +100	41.5 -102	-450	+350
Fliff	-7.5 -120	41.5 -110	-500	+335
Hard Rock Bet	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-9 +105	41.5 -107	-435	+340
MyBookie.ag	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-410	+320
Pinnacle	-9 +107	42 +103	-385	+312
ReBet	-7.5 -110	41.5 -109	-410	+320
theScore Bet	-8 -110	41.5 -105	-450	+340

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): TOM +9 at -118 (1.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +7.5 at -107 (0.2%) · Caesars +7.5 at -109 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -122 (-0.2%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -110 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +350 at FanDuel

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +350 (3.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +340 (3.1%) · Kalshi 22¢ (2.6%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +325 (2.3%).

Off the band

the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 41.5 at -102 (1.1%) · Fanatics 41 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars or Kalshi 41.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · BetMGM 41 at -120 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -118 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-287
FPI	-9.5	-317
Sagarin	-7.5	-253
Massey	-6.0	-207
Market (22 books)	-9.0	-416

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-118	-124	+1.2%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+350	+288	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers

NFL 3:25pm

49ers -13.5

should be 49ers -13.5 at Kalshi

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 13TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.51.3 pts against us

FPI

49ers by 15.52.3 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 14.51.5 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 9.53.6 pts against us

Nasty Number

49ers by 13.50.4 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean 49ers. nfelo at 49ers by 11.5 and Massey at 49ers by 9.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

45.30.3 pts over the market

FPI

46.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

461 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -103	45.5 +102	-1032	+694

All 24 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Bally Bet	-13 -113	45 -108	-910	+575
BetAnything	-13 -115	45 -110	-1100	+700
BetMGM	-13.5 -110	45 -108	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-13 -115	45 -108	-1050	+686
betPARX	-13 -113	45 -108	-910	+575
BetRivers	-13 -113	45 -108	-910	+575
BetUS	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1000	+650
Bovada	-13.5 -105	45 -110	-1100	+650
Caesars	-13.5 -106	44.5 -115	-1000	+650
Courtside	-13.5 -108	44.5 -105	-898	+652
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1000	+650
FanDuel	-13.5 -105	45.5 -102	-1000	+660
Fliff	-13.5 -110	44.5 -115	-1310	+690
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-13.5 -115	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
LowVig.ag	-13 -105	45 -105	-1050	+686
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1009	+704
Pinnacle	-13.5 -103	45.5 +102	-1032	+694
ReBet	-13.5 -120	44.5 -110	-952	+650
theScore Bet	-13.5 -105	44.5 -110	-1200	+700

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -13.5 at 49¢ (0.7%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (0.2%) · Caesars -13.5 at -106 (0.0%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · TOM -13 at -115 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -1000 at Caesars

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -950 (-5.8%) · Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -1000 (-6.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or TOM 45 at -108 (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -102 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 45 at -110 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-431
FPI	-15.5	-730
Sagarin	-14.5	-642
Massey	-9.5	-317
Market (22 books)	-13.0	-905

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -13.5	-103	-106	+0.7%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-1000	-554	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-108	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL 3:05pm

Raiders +6.5

should be Raiders +6.5 at Caesars · was +9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 6.5TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 60.5 pts our side

FPI

Chargers by 60.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Chargers by 81.6 pts against us

Massey

Chargers by 4.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chargers by 6.50 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Raiders. Sagarin at Chargers by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

39.54 pts under the market

FPI

40.33.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.93.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	43.5 -108	-285	+225
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -118	-305	+254

All 23 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	43.5 -108	-285	+225
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetAnything	-6.5 -116	43.5 -110	-285	+235
BetMGM	-6.5 -120	43.5 -110	-295	+240
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -116	43.5 -108	-285	+234
betPARX	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetUS	-7 +100	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Bovada	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-6.5 -117	43.5 -113	-310	+245
Courtside	—	58.5 -688	-316	+267
DraftKings	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-325	+260
Fanatics	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+240
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+245
Fliff	-6.5 -115	43.5 -115	-335	+240
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -105	43.5 -110	-300	+250
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -112	43.5 -105	-285	+234
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	43 -118	-305	+254
ReBet	-7 -109	43.5 -110	-310	+255
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-320	+260

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.5 · -104 at Caesars

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings or Fanatics +7 at -115 (2.7%) · Caesars or TOM +6.5 at -104 (2.2%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -105 (2.0%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +260 at DraftKings

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Raiders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +260 (3.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel +245 (2.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +240 (1.8%) · TOM +225 (0.4%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 43.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -107 (1.1%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (0.4%) · TOM 43.5 at -112 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -104 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.7 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-207
FPI	-6.0	-214
Sagarin	-8.0	-271
Massey	-4.5	-178
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-273

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+260	+221	+3.4%
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.5	-104	-114	+2.2%
Total	Under 43.5	-112	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL 12:00pm

Saints +8.5

should be Saints +9 · giving up 0.5 pts at Caesars · was +8.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 9TOM, +101

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 9.50.7 pts against us

FPI

Ravens by 8.50.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Ravens by 9on the market

Massey

Ravens by 8.50.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ravens by 90.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Saints. nfelo at Ravens by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Saints is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

47.52.5 pts over the market

FPI

46.31.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.91.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +100	45.5 -107	-421	+336

All 24 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-8 -114	46 -112	-435	+320
BetAnything	-8.5 -110	45 -110	-420	+320
BetMGM	-8 -110	45.5 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 +101	45 -110	-420	+330
betPARX	-8 -114	46 -112	-435	+320
BetRivers	-8.5 -107	46 -112	-435	+320
BetUS	-9 +100	45 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-450	+335
Caesars	-8.5 -109	45.5 -110	-400	+320
Courtside	—	51.5 -289	-364	+303
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	45.5 -110	-375	+295
Fanatics	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -105	46.5 -104	-430	+340
Fliff	-8.5 -110	45.5 -115	-490	+335
Hard Rock Bet	-9 -110	45.5 -110	-475	+350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-9 -110	45.5 -110	-475	+350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-9 -110	45.5 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-9 +100	45 -107	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-410	+320
Pinnacle	-9 +100	45.5 -107	-421	+336
ReBet	-8.5 -110	45.5 -110	-410	+320
theScore Bet	-8 -110	45.5 -115	-400	+300

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars +8.5 at -109 (1.8%) · Fanatics +8.5 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Kalshi +8.5 at -115 (0.4%) · TOM +9 at -121 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +340 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Saints to win): FanDuel +340 (2.4%) · Kalshi 22¢ (2.0%) · Fanatics +325 (1.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM +320 (1.4%) · TOM +310 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 45 at -110 (0.5%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-1.4%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -104 (-2.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +8.5 · -109 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 45% chance of rain.

Also out: Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.5	-336
FPI	-8.5	-280
Sagarin	-9.0	-307
Massey	-8.5	-292
Market (22 books)	-9.0	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +8.5	-109	-117	+1.8%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+340	+297	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL 12:00pm

Texans -2.5

should be Texans -2.5 at FanDuel

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 2.5TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2.5on the market

FPI

Texans by 2.5on the market

Sagarin

Texans by 2.5on the market

Massey

Texans by 41.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Texans. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

51.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

46.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.93.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +107	45.5 -105	-148	+131

All 24 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-148	+123
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-148	+128
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	45.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	45.5 -108	-148	+128
betPARX	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	45.5 -109	-148	+120
BetUS	-2 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-2.5 -115	45.5 -105	-150	+130
Caesars	-2.5 -113	45.5 -112	-152	+128
Courtside	—	45.5 -108	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	45.5 -110	-142	+120
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	45.5 -114	-138	+118
Fliff	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	45.5 -105	-148	+128
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-146	+124
Pinnacle	-3 +107	45.5 -105	-148	+131
ReBet	-3 -109	45.5 -110	-146	+124
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 -105	-145	+125

Marked: best for Texans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texans): FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (0.2%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (-0.4%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -118 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -120 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Texans to win · -138 at FanDuel

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53. Where, best first (Texans to win): FanDuel -138 (-0.0%) · DraftKings -142 (-0.7%) · BetMGM -145 (-1.2%) · TOM -148 (-1.7%) · Fanatics -150 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 45.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi or TOM 45.5 at -107 (1.4%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Caesars 45.5 at -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -114 (-0.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texans -2.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-134
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-2.5	-134
Massey	-4.0	-160
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Texans -2.5	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Houston Texans ML	-138	-138	-0.0%
Total	Over 45.5	-108	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Panthers by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2

FPI

Panthers by 4.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Falcons by 2

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.64.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

440.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +101	43.5 -107	+127	-143

All 24 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -115	43.5 -108	+125	-152
BetAnything	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-145
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-150
betPARX	+3 -115	43.5 -108	+125	-152
BetRivers	+3 -115	43.5 -108	+125	-152
BetUS	+2 +100	43.5 -110	+129	-150
Bovada	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-145
Caesars	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-148
Courtside	—	65.5 -1501	+133	-152
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-155
Fanatics	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -104	43.5 -110	+128	-152
Fliff	+2.5 +100	43.5 -115	+130	-160
Hard Rock Bet	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+130	-150
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +105	43.5 -107	+130	-150
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+126	-148
Pinnacle	+2.5 +101	43.5 -107	+127	-143
ReBet	+3 -120	43.5 -110	+126	-148
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	42.5 -115	+130	-150

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +2.5 · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Falcons): Kalshi, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +2.5 at +101 (-1.4%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-2.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +125 at Caesars

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +130 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +128 (-0.8%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi +125 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 39. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 43.5 at 50¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Panthers).

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	-109
FPI	+4.5	+129
Sagarin	PK	-138
Massey	-2.0	-171
Market (22 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +2.5	+100	+107	-1.6%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+125	+132	-1.4%
Total	Over 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 13:02; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 3TOM, -106

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 3.5

FPI

Packers by 2.5

Sagarin

Packers by 4.5

Massey

Packers by 2.5

Nasty Number

Packers by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

47.33.3 pts over the market

FPI

45.91.9 pts over the market

Weather

-1.083% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

45.61.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -106	44 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3 +100	45 +101	+148	-168

All 24 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -106	44 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -117	44.5 -113	+150	-186
BetAnything	+3 -106	44.5 -110	+148	-172
BetMGM	+3.5 -112	44.5 -108	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	44 -110	+151	-172
betPARX	+3.5 -117	44.5 -113	+150	-186
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	44.5 -113	+150	-186
BetUS	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+3 +100	44.5 -110	+145	-170
Caesars	+3 -103	44 -110	+153	-182
Courtside	—	57.5 -907	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -110	44.5 -110	+154	-185
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	44.5 -114	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-200
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	44 -107	+151	-172
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+151	-179
Pinnacle	+3 +100	45 +101	+148	-168
ReBet	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+151	-179
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+150	-175

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -3.0 · -114 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (-2.8%) · TOM -3 at -114 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -3.5 at +100 (-4.1%) · Caesars -3 at -118 (-4.1%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -172 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Packers to win): TOM -172 (-3.8%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or Fanatics -175 (-4.2%) · FanDuel -178 (-4.6%) · Caesars -182 (-5.1%) · DraftKings -185 (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 44.5 at 49¢ (0.5%) · Caesars or TOM 44 at -110 (0.4%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -114 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Jets).

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+155
FPI	+2.5	+137
Sagarin	+4.5	+168
Massey	+2.5	+135
Market (22 books)	+3.0	+148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	45.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -3.0	-114	-100	-3.3%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-172	-146	-3.8%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward New York Jets since 09-13 18:32; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.7 consensus; moneyline +148 here against +162 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL 12:00pm

No bet

market says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5.5

FPI

Patriots by 5

Sagarin

Patriots by 5.5

Massey

Patriots by 4.5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 5.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

41.20.3 pts under the market

Weather

-1.067% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.81.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 -110	42 +102	-249	+213

All 24 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-5 -112	41.5 -112	-235	+185
BetAnything	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+200
BetMGM	-5.5 -108	41.5 -108	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+203
betPARX	-5 -112	41.5 -112	-235	+185
BetRivers	-5 -112	41.5 -112	-235	+185
BetUS	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-235	+200
Bovada	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-250	+210
Caesars	-5.5 -110	41.5 -109	-235	+194
Courtside	—	50.5 -309	-225	+194
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	41.5 -108	-230	+190
Fanatics	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-4.5 -120	41.5 -110	-250	+205
Fliff	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-260	+195
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -115	41.5 -110	-250	+210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-5.5 -115	41.5 -110	-250	+210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-5.5 -115	41.5 -110	-250	+210
LowVig.ag	-5 -105	41.5 -107	-245	+203
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	41.5 -110	-238	+198
Pinnacle	-5.5 -110	42 +102	-249	+213
ReBet	-5 -110	41.5 -109	-238	+198
theScore Bet	-5.5 -115	41.5 -105	-240	+200

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi -5.5 at 49¢ (-3.5%) · TOM -5 at -110 (-3.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-4.6%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -120 (-4.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics -5.5 at -110 (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -240 (69¢) at Kalshi

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings -230 (-4.1%) · Caesars or BetMGM -235 (-4.5%) · Kalshi or TOM -239 (-4.9%) · Fanatics -245 (-5.4%) · FanDuel -250 (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars 41.5 at -112 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Patriots).

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-186
FPI	-5.0	-180
Sagarin	-5.5	-186
Massey	-4.5	-166
Market (22 books)	-5.0	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -5.0	-110	+106	-3.9%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-240	-191	-5.0%
Total	Under 41.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.4 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL 3:25pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 4TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 4

FPI

Cowboys by 4.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 4.5

Massey

Cowboys by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

Massey

53.12.1 pts over the market

FPI

50.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.70.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -107	51 -110	-202	+162
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-4 -102	51 -107	-196	+171

All 24 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -107	51 -110	-202	+162
Kalshi	-4.5 +101 48¢	50.5 -116 52¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Bally Bet	-4 -110	51 -108	-215	+170
BetAnything	-4 -110	51 -110	-210	+175
BetMGM	-4 -108	51 -108	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-4 -107	51 -110	-202	+175
betPARX	-4 -110	51 -108	-215	+170
BetRivers	-4 -110	51 -108	-215	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	51 -110	-202	+172
Bovada	-4 -105	51 -110	-200	+170
Caesars	-4 -111	50.5 -117	-209	+175
Courtside	—	60.5 -359	-213	+184
DraftKings	-3.5 -120	50.5 -120	-218	+180
Fanatics	-4 -110	51 -110	-205	+170
FanDuel	-4.5 -102	50.5 -114	-200	+168
Fliff	-4.5 -105	51.5 -105	-215	+165
Hard Rock Bet	-4 -115	51 -110	-210	+175
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-4 -115	51 -110	-210	+175
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-4 -115	51 -110	-210	+175
LowVig.ag	-4 -101	51 -107	-202	+175
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	51 -110	-210	+176
Pinnacle	-4 -102	51 -107	-196	+171
ReBet	-4.5 -110	51 -110	-208	+174
theScore Bet	-4 -110	50.5 -115	-200	+170

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cowboys): Kalshi -4.5 at 48¢ (-3.9%) · TOM -4 at -107 (-4.4%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -102 (-4.6%) · BetMGM -4 at -108 (-4.7%) · Fanatics -4 at -110 (-5.1%).

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · -202 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): FanDuel -200 (-4.6%) · TOM -202 (-4.8%) · Fanatics -205 (-5.1%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -208 (-5.5%) · DraftKings -218 (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-1.2%) · BetMGM 51 at -108 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-1.6%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.8%) · Caesars 50.5 at -117 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
FPI	-4.5	-177
Sagarin	-4.5	-172
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (22 books)	-4.0	-193

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys -4.0	-107	+112	-4.4%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	-202	-164	-4.8%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL 7:20pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 6, our data says Chiefs by 6.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 6TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 7.5

FPI

Chiefs by 8

Sagarin

Chiefs by 8

Massey

Chiefs by 6.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 6.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 6.5 to Chiefs by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.11.6 pts over the market

FPI

45.41.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+230
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-6 +103	47 +103	-269	+227

All 24 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+230
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Bally Bet	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetAnything	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-290	+240
BetMGM	—	46 -110	-285	+230
BetOnline.ag	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+237
betPARX	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetRivers	-6 -114	46.5 -110	-315	+240
BetUS	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-290	+240
Bovada	-5.5 -110	46 +100	-275	+225
Caesars	-6 -107	46.5 -107	-290	+230
Courtside	—	53.5 -285	-263	+225
DraftKings	-6 -108	46.5 +100	-270	+220
Fanatics	-5.5 -115	46 -110	-285	+230
FanDuel	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-280	+230
Fliff	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-320	+235
Hard Rock Bet	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-300	+230
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-300	+230
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6 -110	46.5 -110	-300	+230
LowVig.ag	-6 -105	46.5 -102	-290	+237
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	46 -110	-297	+229
Pinnacle	-6 +103	47 +103	-269	+227
ReBet	-6 -110	46 -110	-275	+228
theScore Bet	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-270	+220

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -5.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%) · Fanatics -5.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · Caesars -6 at -107 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (-3.2%) · TOM -6 at -110 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -270 at DraftKings

We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -270 (-4.2%) · Kalshi 72¢ (-4.7%) · FanDuel -280 (-4.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -285 (-5.3%) · Caesars or TOM -290 (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 46.5 at +100 (0.7%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 49¢ (-0.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (-0.1%) · TOM 46.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 46.5 at -107 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 39% chance of rain.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-243
FPI	-8.0	-275
Sagarin	-8.0	-260
Massey	-6.5	-216
Market (22 books)	-6.0	-278

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -5.5	-112	-103	-1.9%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-270	-220	-4.2%
Total	Over 46.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams

NFL tomorrow 7:15pm

No bet

market says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 7TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 8.5

FPI

Rams by 5

Sagarin

Rams by 8.5

Massey

Rams by 7.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

47.20.8 pts under the market

FPI

48.50.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.9on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+245
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Pinnacle	-7 -106	48.5 +101	-322	+275

All 24 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+245
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetAnything	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+250
BetMGM	-7 -110	48 -108	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7 -110	48 -110	-320	+260
betPARX	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetRivers	-7 -112	48 -113	-335	+260
BetUS	-7 -110	47.5 -110	-315	+258
Bovada	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+270
Caesars	-7 -108	47.5 -118	-320	+250
Courtside	—	65.5 -6611	-297	+251
DraftKings	-7 -108	47.5 -115	-305	+245
Fanatics	-7 -110	48 -110	-330	+260
FanDuel	-7.5 +100	47.5 -115	-330	+265
Fliff	-6.5 -125	47.5 -120	-345	+245
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -110	48 -110	-325	+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -110	48 -110	-325	+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -110	48 -110	-325	+260
LowVig.ag	-7 -105	48 -107	-320	+260
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+260
Pinnacle	-7 -106	48.5 +101	-322	+275
ReBet	-7.5 -105	47.5 -120	-330	+265
theScore Bet	-7 -115	47.5 -115	-320	+260

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -7.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): DraftKings or Caesars -7 at -108 (-5.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 53¢ (-5.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -7 at -110 (-5.8%) · FanDuel -7.5 at +100 (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -320 at Caesars

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings or Kalshi -305 (-4.3%) · Caesars or TOM -320 (-5.2%) · BetMGM -325 (-5.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -330 (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-1.1%) · BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars 47.5 at -118 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).

Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-278
FPI	-5.0	-181
Sagarin	-8.5	-282
Massey	-7.5	-250
Market (22 books)	-7.0	-306

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -7.0	-110	+115	-5.8%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-320	-245	-5.2%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal Carolina

CFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, our data says Coastal Carolina by 2

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Coastal Carolina by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Coastal Carolina by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →

Market

Coastal Carolina by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game

Massey

Coastal Carolina by 3.5

Nasty Number

Coastal Carolina by 20.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

58.75.2 pts over the market

Massey

52.31.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

55.52 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Liberty ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Liberty ML
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	53.5 -110	-118	-102
MyBookie.ag	-1 -110	53.5 -110	-121	-105
ReBet	-1.5 -111	53.5 -114	-124	-107

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina -1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): FanDuel -1.5 at -110 (-0.3%).

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · -121

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): FanDuel -118 (0.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1.5, only $52 available; Liberty Flames +1.5, only $52 available; Over 53.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onCoastal Carolina by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
Massey	-3.5	-145
Market (3 books)	-1.5	-108

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	55.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers -1.5	-110	-109	-0.3%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	-121	-120	-0.1%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at Packers

NFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Packers by 6.5, our data says Packers by 7

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Packers by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 10

FPI

Packers by 13

Sagarin

Packers by 8.5

Massey

Packers by 8

Nasty Number

Packers by 70.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

40.75.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.21.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5	46.5 -112 51¢	-322 75¢	—

All 11 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5	46.5 -112 51¢	-322 75¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
betPARX	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
Caesars	-6.5 -114	46.5 -106	-295	+240
Courtside	-6.5 -113	46.5 -108	-290	+246
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	46.5 -110	-298	+240
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	45.5 -115	-335	+270
Fliff	-6.5 -110	46.5 -110	-325	+235
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	46 -110	-310	+228
ReBet	-6.5 -120	45.5 -120	-295	+240

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -6.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Packers): Caesars -6.5 at -114 (-4.1%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -6.5 at -115 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -305

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Packers to win): Caesars or DraftKings -295 (-3.9%) · Kalshi 75¢ (-5.5%) · FanDuel -335 (-6.2%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -114 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-1.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -6.5, only $102 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $496 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers).

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-252
FPI	-13.0	-372
Sagarin	-8.5	-209
Massey	-8.0	-195
Market (10 books)	-6.5	-279

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -6.5	-110	+103	-3.2%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-305	-243	-4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Fri Sep 25

4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UAB

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pm

Over 54.5

should be 56.3 · getting 1.8 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 12, the Nasty Number says Navy by 11. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore UAB →

Market

Navy by 12

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UAB's last game

FPI

hasn't seen UAB's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen UAB's last game

Massey

Navy by 8.53.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Navy by 111.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean UAB. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

61.36.8 pts over the market

Massey

59.85.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

60.56 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Navy ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-490 82¢

All 4 books

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Navy ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-490 82¢
FanDuel	+11.5 -110	54.5 -110	+350	-465
MyBookie.ag	+12.5 -110	54.5 -110	+330	-490
ReBet	+12.5 -114	54.5 -114	+320	-500

Marked: best for UAB, higher payout on each moneyline.

UAB +12.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UAB): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (1.7%).

Not Nasty

UAB to win · +350 at FanDuel

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UAB to win): FanDuel +350 (1.7%).

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 60. That's 6.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (2.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $156 available; Under 54.5, only $52 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI	hasn't seen UAB's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen UAB's last game
Massey	+8.5	+244
Market (3 books)	+12.0	+424

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	60.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UAB Blazers +12.0	-110	-121	+2.5%
Moneyline	UAB Blazers ML	+350	+317	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at California

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pm

Clemson to win

our data says 56 in 100 · -121

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Clemson than the bookmore California →

Market

Clemson by 1.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game

Massey

Clemson by 64.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Clemson by 2.50.9 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Clemson. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.80.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.41.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.10.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Clemson ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -112 51¢	—	—

All 4 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Clemson ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -112 51¢	—	—
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	48.5 -110	-102	-118
MyBookie.ag	+1 -110	48.5 -110	-105	-121
ReBet	+1.5 -116	48.5 -114	-107	-124

Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson -1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel -1.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi -1.5 at 51¢ (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Clemson to win · -121

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel -118 (1.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson to win · -121. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears ML, only $63 available; Clemson Tigers ML, only $270 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onClemson by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
Massey	+6.0	+181
Market (3 books)	+1.5	+108

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Clemson Tigers ML	-121	-126	+1.0%
Spread	Clemson Tigers -1.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at Temple

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pm

No bet

market says Army by 3, our data says Army by 4

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 4. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Army by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Temple's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Temple's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Temple's last game

Massey

Army by 5.5

Nasty Number

Army by 40.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

58.37.8 pts over the market

Massey

50.7on the market

Nasty Number

54.54 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4 points of the book.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Army ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	Army ML
Bally Bet	+3 -109	50.5 -113	+128	-157
betPARX	+3 -109	50.5 -113	+128	-157
BetRivers	+3 -110	50.5 -114	+128	-159
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	50.5 -110	+132	-160
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +105	50.5 -110	+135	-160
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	50.5 -110	+129	-165
ReBet	+3.5 -133	50.5 -114	+126	-168

Marked: best for the Temple side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army -3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Army): FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Army to win · -160 at FanDuel

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Army to win): FanDuel -160 (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $52 available; Under 50.5, only $63 available; Temple Owls ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Temple's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Temple's last game
Massey	+5.5	+179
Market (7 books)	+3.0	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	54.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Army Black Knights -3.0	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	Army Black Knights ML	-160	-148	-1.9%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at Indiana

CFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says Indiana by 23.5, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.

The spread

← more Northwestern than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Indiana by 23.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.42.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.42.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Northwestern ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1429 93¢	—

All 10 books

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Northwestern ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1429 93¢	—
Bally Bet	-23.5 -108	48 -107	—	+1400
betPARX	-23.5 -108	48 -107	—	+1400
BetRivers	-23.5 -109	48 -108	—	+1400
Courtside	-23.5 -108	47.5 -108	—	+1758
DraftKings	-23.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	+1600
FanDuel	-23.5 -110	47.5 -115	—	+1280
MyBookie.ag	-23.5 -110	47.5 -110	-2500	+910
ReBet	-23.5 -114	47.5 -116	-2500	+840
theScore Bet	-23.5 -110	47.5 -115	—	+1500

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $102 available; Under 47.5, only $24 available; Northwestern Wildcats ML, only $268 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
Massey	rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales
Market (9 books)	-23.5	-2857

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	45.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sat Sep 26

53 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says LSU by 8, our data says LSU by 5.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 5.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 8

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game

Massey

Texas A&M by 18.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

LSU by 5.52.6 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 2.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 9 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.16.4 pts under the market

Massey

52.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.93.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+252 27¢

All 10 books

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+252 27¢
Bally Bet	-7.5 -113	53.5 -109	-335	+255
BetMGM	-8 -108	53.5 -108	-350	+275
betPARX	-7.5 -113	53.5 -109	-335	+255
BetRivers	-7.5 -114	53.5 -110	-335	+255
Courtside	-8.5 -103	53.5 -108	-383	+319
DraftKings	-8.5 -105	53.5 -110	-395	+310
FanDuel	-7.5 -115	53.5 -106	-315	+250
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	53.5 -110	-350	+260
ReBet	-8.5 -111	53.5 -111	-350	+244

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it. Where, best first (Texas A&M): BetMGM +8 at -110 (9.8%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (9.8%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (9.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Discounted

Texas A&M to win · +310 at DraftKings

We make it 37 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings +310 (12.3%) · BetMGM +275 (10.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +252 (8.3%).

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -114 (-0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -8.5, only $51 available; Texas A&M Aggies +8.5, only $26 available; Over 53.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
Massey	+1.0	+109
Market (9 books)	-8.0	-315

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +8.0	-110	-165	+9.8%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+310	+172	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Massachusetts by 5.5, our data says Massachusetts by 2

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 2, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →

Market

Massachusetts by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game

Massey

Sacramento State by 5.511.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Massachusetts by 23.3 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Sacramento State. The Nasty Number is 3.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 11 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.32.2 pts under the market

Massey

54.53 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.90.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

Sacramento State +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it. Where, best first (Sacramento State): FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (8.2%).

Discounted

Sacramento State to win · +174

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 36. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Sacramento State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Sacramento State to win): FanDuel +172 (7.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onMassachusetts by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
Massey	-5.5	-178
Market (2 books)	+5.5	+202

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +5.5	-110	-154	+8.2%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+174	+124	+8.1%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston College

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 15, our data says Virginia Tech by 11.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 15, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 11.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Boston College →

Market

Virginia Tech by 15

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game

Massey

Virginia Tech by 312.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 11.53.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Boston College. The Nasty Number is 3.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 12 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.51 pts under the market

Massey

55.52 pts over the market

Weather

-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off

Nasty Number

52.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-660 86¢

All 4 books

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Virginia Tech ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-660 86¢
FanDuel	+14.5 -110	53.5 -115	+490	-710
MyBookie.ag	+15.5 -110	—	+460	-752
ReBet	+15.5 -116	—	+440	-800

Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +15.0 · -110

Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it. Where, best first (Boston College): FanDuel +14.5 at -110 (7.3%).

Discounted

Boston College to win · +460

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): FanDuel +490 (6.3%).

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (-0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 62°F, 32% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles +16.5, only $2 available; Virginia Tech Hokies -16.5, only $18 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
Massey	+3.0	+134
Market (3 books)	+15.0	+642

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boston College Eagles +15.0	-110	-153	+8.1%
Moneyline	Boston College Eagles ML	+460	+331	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

West Virginia +1.5

should be West Virginia -2 · getting 3.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oklahoma State by 0.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. 2.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Oklahoma State by 0.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game

Massey

West Virginia by 66.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

West Virginia by 22.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 2.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.96.4 pts under the market

Massey

53.65.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.26.1 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

West Virginia +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (West Virginia): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (5.1%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -104 (1.5%).

A Little Nasty

West Virginia to win · -102 at DraftKings

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 50. That's value. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): DraftKings -102 (4.5%) · FanDuel -110 (2.6%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 59.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 6.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (6.7%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (1.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onWest Virginia by 240% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
Massey	-6.0	-184
Market (9 books)	+0.5	+104

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	West Virginia Mountaineers +1.5	-110	-135	+5.1%
Moneyline	West Virginia Mountaineers ML	-102	-122	+4.5%
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-130	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.8.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at Auburn

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pm

Vanderbilt +9

should be Vanderbilt +8 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Auburn by 9, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 8. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

Auburn by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game

Massey

Auburn by 4.54.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Auburn by 81.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Vanderbilt's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.23.5 pts under the market

Massey

48.44.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.83.9 pts under the market

Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+266 26¢

All 10 books

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Vanderbilt ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+266 26¢
Bally Bet	-9 -112	52.5 -112	-375	+285
betPARX	-9 -112	52.5 -112	-375	+285
BetRivers	-9 -113	52.5 -113	-385	+285
Courtside	-9.5 -108	52.5 -108	-350	+293
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	52.5 -110	-360	+285
FanDuel	-8.5 -112	53.5 -112	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	52.5 -115	-375	+275
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	53 -110	-391	+275
ReBet	-9.5 -119	52.5 -116	-400	+270

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (5.2%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -108 (4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · +285 at DraftKings

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Vanderbilt loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): DraftKings +285 (5.0%) · FanDuel +270 (4.0%) · Kalshi 26¢ (3.7%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (3.0%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (0.1%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers -9.5, only $212 available; Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5, only $28 available; Over 53.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAuburn by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
Massey	-4.5	-158
Market (9 books)	-9.0	-334

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+285	+223	+5.0%
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +9.0	-110	-134	+4.8%
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Northern Illinois +9

should be Northern Illinois +8 · getting 1 pt

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 9, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 8. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Georgia State →

Market

Georgia State by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game

Massey

Georgia State by 54.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Georgia State by 81.3 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Northern Illinois. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.52 pts under the market

Massey

49.64.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.13.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

Northern Illinois +9.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Northern Illinois): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (4.2%).

A Little Nasty

Northern Illinois to win · +280 at FanDuel

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Northern Illinois loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Northern Illinois to win): FanDuel +280 (4.5%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
Massey	-5.0	-164
Market (3 books)	-9.0	-323

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Illinois Huskies +9.0	-110	-133	+4.6%
Moneyline	Northern Illinois Huskies ML	+280	+224	+4.5%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Washington State +13

should be Washington State +11 · getting 2 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 13, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11. 2.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →

Market

Arizona by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game

Massey

Arizona by 5.57.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 112.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Washington State. The Nasty Number is 2.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

445.5 pts under the market

Massey

44.64.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.35.2 pts under the market

Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

Washington State +13.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Washington State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (3.9%).

A Little Nasty

Washington State to win · +400 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Washington State to win): FanDuel +400 (4.6%).

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 45. That's 5.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (0.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Washington State +13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
Massey	+5.5	+172
Market (3 books)	+13.0	+487

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +13.0	-110	-133	+4.6%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+400	+307	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

UL Monroe +13

should be UL Monroe +11 · getting 2 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. 2.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 5.57.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 112.3 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean UL Monroe. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

63.45.9 pts over the market

Massey

59.52 pts over the market

Nasty Number

61.43.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Florida Atlantic ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Florida Atlantic ML
FanDuel	+12.5 -105	57.5 -110	+420	-580
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -110	—	+400	-550
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	—	+390	-599
ReBet	+13.5 -111	—	+370	-599

Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +13.0 · -110

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +12.5 at -105 (4.6%).

A Little Nasty

UL Monroe to win · +395

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win): FanDuel +420 (5.0%).

Off the band

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5, only $275 available; Florida Atlantic Owls -13.5, only $275 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $94 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
Massey	+5.5	+177
Market (4 books)	+13.0	+509

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UL Monroe Warhawks +13.0	-110	-131	+4.2%
Moneyline	UL Monroe Warhawks ML	+395	+312	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pm

Missouri +3.5

should be Missouri +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +1.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 2.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →

Market

Mississippi State by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game

Massey

a pick'em3.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Mississippi State by 2.50.8 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Missouri. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Missouri is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

54.23.7 pts under the market

Massey

56.11.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

55.12.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Missouri ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 9 books

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Missouri ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -107	58.5 -108	-165	+135
betPARX	-3.5 -107	58.5 -108	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3.5 -108	58.5 -109	-167	+133
Courtside	-3 -108	57.5 -108	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -110	57.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	58.5 -110	-178	+146
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	57.5 -115	-175	+145
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	57.5 -110	-183	+142
ReBet	-3.5 -114	57.5 -119	-187	+139

Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Missouri): FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (3.9%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (-0.6%).

A Little Nasty

Missouri to win · +146 at FanDuel

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Missouri to win): FanDuel +146 (2.7%) · DraftKings +130 (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 58.0 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs -3.5, only $477 available; Missouri Tigers +3.5, only $459 available; Over 58.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMississippi State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
Massey	PK	+102
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-154

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	55.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers +3.5	-105	-123	+3.9%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	+146	+130	+2.7%
Total	Under 58.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Iowa State +12

should be Iowa State +10.5 · getting 1.5 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 12, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Utah than the bookmore Iowa State →

Market

Utah by 12

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game

Massey

Utah by 7.54.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Utah by 10.51.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

46.12.8 pts under the market

Massey

50.71.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.40.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

Iowa State +12.0 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (4.2%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (2.9%).

A Little Nasty

Iowa State to win · +400 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel +400 (4.8%) · DraftKings +370 (3.6%).

Off the band

the Under 49.0 · -110

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +12.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
Massey	+7.5	+213
Market (6 books)	+12.0	+462

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +12.0	-110	-127	+3.6%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+400	+303	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at Florida

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Ole Miss +2.5

should be Ole Miss PK · getting 2.5 pts at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 2, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game

Massey

Ole Miss by 4.56.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

a pick'em1.9 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Ole Miss. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ole Miss's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.37.2 pts under the market

Massey

56.52 pts under the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

53.25.3 pts under the market

Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	—	58.5 -107 50¢	—	-103 49¢

All 11 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	Ole Miss ML
Kalshi	—	58.5 -107 50¢	—	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	-2 -108	58.5 -108	-127	+105
BetMGM	-2 -110	58.5 -105	-130	+105
betPARX	-2 -108	58.5 -108	-127	+105
BetRivers	-2 -109	58.5 -109	-129	+104
Courtside	-1.5 -108	58.5 +100	-116	+100
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	58.5 -102	-118	-102
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	58.5 -105	-138	+115
Hard Rock Bet	—	58.5 -105	-125	+105
MyBookie.ag	—	58.5 -110	-132	+103
ReBet	—	58.5 -109	-134	+101

Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ole Miss): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (3.4%) · BetMGM +2 at -108 (1.7%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (0.0%).

A Little Nasty

Ole Miss to win · +115 at FanDuel

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 47. That's value. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Ole Miss loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Ole Miss to win): FanDuel +115 (3.4%) · BetMGM +105 (1.2%) · DraftKings -102 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 49¢ (-0.8%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 58.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 58.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -118 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 53¢ (-0.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -2.5, only $1 available; Ole Miss Rebels +2.5, only $464 available; Florida Gators ML, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle ona pick'em30% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
Massey	+4.5	+156
Market (10 books)	-2.0	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	53.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Ole Miss Rebels ML	+115	+100	+3.4%
Spread	Ole Miss Rebels +2.5	-105	-120	+3.4%
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Cincinnati +7

should be Cincinnati +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →

Market

Kansas State by 7

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game

Massey

Kansas State by 4.52.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 6.50.8 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.86.3 pts over the market

Massey

56.34.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.15.6 pts over the market

Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -110

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Cincinnati): FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (2.1%).

A Little Nasty

Cincinnati to win · +213

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): FanDuel +210 (1.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 6.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
Massey	+4.5	+157
Market (4 books)	+7.0	+255

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	57.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0	-110	-125	+3.2%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bearcats ML	+213	+192	+2.3%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Ball State +3.5

should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Kent State →

Market

Kent State by 3.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game

Massey

Ball State by 1.54.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Kent State by 2.51 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Ball State. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

54.33.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.10.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ball State): FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (3.1%).

A Little Nasty

Ball State to win · +146 at FanDuel

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Ball State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Ball State to win): FanDuel +146 (3.1%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Full detail

We settle onKent State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (3 books)	-3.5	-168

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ball State Cardinals +3.5	-110	-125	+3.1%
Moneyline	Ball State Cardinals ML	+146	+129	+3.1%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at Tennessee

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Tennessee +6

should be Tennessee +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +4.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 6, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Texas by 6

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game

Massey

Texas by 23.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texas by 4.51.2 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Tennessee's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

62.14.9 pts over the market

Massey

602.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

613.9 pts over the market

Over 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	+174 35¢	—

All 10 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	+174 35¢	—
Bally Bet	+6 -108	56.5 -110	+185	-230
betPARX	+6 -108	56.5 -110	+185	-230
BetRivers	+6 -109	56.5 -112	+180	-235
Courtside	+5.5 -108	57.5 -108	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+180	-218
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	57.5 -115	+172	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -115	57.5 -110	+180	-230
ReBet	+6.5 -119	57.5 -114	+176	-242
theScore Bet	+5.5 -110	57.5 -115	+170	-200

Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee +6.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings or FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (1.8%).

A Little Nasty

Tennessee to win · +180 at DraftKings

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): DraftKings +180 (2.6%) · Kalshi 35¢ (1.7%) · FanDuel +172 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 60. That's 3.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -115 (-1.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +6.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +5.5, only $164 available; Texas Longhorns -5.5, only $225 available; Over 57.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
Massey	+2.0	+122
Market (9 books)	+6.0	+203

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	61.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Volunteers +6.0	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Tennessee Volunteers ML	+180	+161	+2.6%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at Wyoming

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm

Wyoming +5.5

should be Wyoming +4.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 4.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Wyoming →

Market

Hawai'i by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wyoming's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wyoming's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wyoming's last game

Massey

Hawai'i by 0.55.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Hawai'i by 4.51.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Wyoming. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

SP+ pace

42.72.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.11.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.63.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	—	—	+152 38¢	—

All 5 books

	Wyoming spread	Total (over)	Wyoming ML	Hawai'i ML
Kalshi	—	—	+152 38¢	—
FanDuel	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+172	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	—	+180	-230
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	—	+178	-234
ReBet	+5.5 -114	—	+174	-238

Marked: best for Wyoming, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wyoming +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Wyoming): FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (2.6%).

Not Nasty

Wyoming to win · +174

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Wyoming to win): FanDuel +172 (2.2%) · Kalshi 38¢ (-0.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 44. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wyoming +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +5.5, only $73 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -5.5, only $52 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHawai'i by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
Massey	+0.5	+103
Market (4 books)	+5.5	+204

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wyoming Cowboys +5.5	-110	-122	+2.6%
Moneyline	Wyoming Cowboys ML	+174	+156	+2.5%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

UConn +5.5

should be UConn +4.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 4.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Miami (OH) →

Market

Miami (OH) by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game

FPI

hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game

Massey

Miami (OH) by 0.55.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 4.51.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

53.75.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	UConn ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	UConn ML
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	48.5 -110	-200	+164
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	—	-232	+177
ReBet	-5.5 -114	—	-238	+173

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (2.5%).

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +173

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (UConn to win): FanDuel +164 (1.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -5.5, only $52 available; UConn Huskies +5.5, only $52 available; Over 48.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI	hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
Massey	-0.5	-104
Market (3 books)	-5.5	-199

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies +5.5	-110	-122	+2.5%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+173	+157	+2.3%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Nevada +4.5

should be Nevada +4 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Air Force by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nevada's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Nevada's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Nevada's last game

Massey

Air Force by 1.53.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Air Force by 40.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

48.90.6 pts under the market

Massey

48.90.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
FanDuel	+4.5 -110	49.5 -110	+162	-196
Hard Rock Bet	+4.5 -110	—	+170	-220
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	—	+165	-216
ReBet	+4.5 -114	—	+162	-220

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

Nevada to win · +163

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Nevada to win): FanDuel +162 (2.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5, only $159 available; Air Force Falcons -4.5, only $159 available; Nevada Wolf Pack ML, only $155 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Nevada's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Nevada's last game
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (4 books)	+4.5	+190

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	+163	+147	+2.5%
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5	-110	-121	+2.3%
Total	Under 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at Georgia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Oklahoma +14

should be Oklahoma +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +12

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 12.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 14

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game

Massey

Georgia by 95 pts our side

Nasty Number

Georgia by 12.51 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Oklahoma. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Oklahoma's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

45.12.1 pts under the market

Massey

502.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.60.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—

All 10 books

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Oklahoma ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—
Bally Bet	-14 -109	47 -112	-625	+430
BetMGM	-13.5 -110	46.5 -108	-600	+450
betPARX	-14 -109	47 -112	-625	+430
BetRivers	-14 -110	47 -113	-625	+430
Courtside	-14 -108	47.5 +100	-623	+487
DraftKings	-14 -110	47.5 -102	-650	+470
FanDuel	-13.5 -105	45.5 -110	-550	+400
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	48.5 -110	-650	+450
ReBet	-13.5 -119	48.5 -111	-699	+410

Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oklahoma): DraftKings +14 at -110 (2.2%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (0.5%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Oklahoma to win · +470 at DraftKings

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): DraftKings +470 (3.3%) · BetMGM +450 (2.6%) · FanDuel +400 (0.8%).

Off the band

the Over 47.0 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (2.2%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (0.1%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-0.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs -13.5, only $326 available; Oklahoma Sooners +13.5, only $59 available; Over 46.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
Massey	-9.0	-248
Market (9 books)	-14.0	-555

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	47.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oklahoma Sooners +14.0	-110	-120	+2.2%
Moneyline	Oklahoma Sooners ML	+470	+380	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Oregon +1.5

should be Oregon -1 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 1. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →

Market

a pick'em

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game

Massey

Oregon by 32.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon by 11.2 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Oregon. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Oregon is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62.5

The Four

SP+ pace

60.62 pts under the market

Massey

62.5on the market

Nasty Number

61.51.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	—	+105 47¢	—

All 10 books

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Oregon ML
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	—	+105 47¢	—
Bally Bet	+1 -109	63.5 -113	-104	-118
BetMGM	+1 -108	62.5 -108	-105	-112
betPARX	+1 -109	63.5 -113	-104	-118
BetRivers	+1 -110	63.5 -114	-105	-120
Courtside	-1.5 -103	62.5 -108	-113	-103
DraftKings	-1.5 -105	62.5 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	61.5 -112	+104	-125
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 +100	61.5 -115	-110	-110
ReBet	-0.5 -111	62.5 -109	-113	-117

Marked: best for Oregon, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon +1.5 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (2.1%) · BetMGM -1 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -105 at DraftKings

We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -105 (1.9%) · BetMGM -112 (0.3%) · FanDuel -125 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 62.5 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 62.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -108 (-3.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oregon +1.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now PK. The market has moved 1.9 toward Oregon, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -1.5, only $376 available; Over 62.5, only $159 available; Under 62.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
Massey	+3.0	+135
Market (9 books)	PK	+103

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.5	61.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks +1.5	-115	-125	+2.1%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-105	-113	+1.9%
Total	Under 62.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 1.1.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

Middle Tennessee +9

should be Middle Tennessee +9

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game

Massey

Jacksonville State by 81.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 90.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Middle Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.74.2 pts over the market

Massey

53.7on the market

Nasty Number

55.72.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (1.6%).

Not Nasty

Middle Tennessee to win · +260

We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 24. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win): FanDuel +265 (1.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
Massey	-8.0	-225
Market (4 books)	-9.0	-314

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	55.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0	-110	-120	+2.1%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+260	+249	+0.9%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

Utah State -2.5

should be Utah State -3.5 · getting 1 pt

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 3.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →

Market

Utah State by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game

Massey

Utah State by 74.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Utah State by 3.51 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Utah State. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.80.7 pts under the market

Massey

52.31.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

Utah State -2.5 · -110

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Utah State): FanDuel -2.5 at -118 (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

Utah State to win · -140 at FanDuel

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Utah State to win): FanDuel -140 (0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Utah State -2.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail

We settle onUtah State by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
Massey	-7.0	-207
Market (4 books)	-2.5	-126

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies -2.5	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	-140	-142	+0.3%
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

Michigan State +4.5

should be Michigan State +4 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +5.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Nebraska by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game

Massey

Nebraska by 31.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Nebraska by 40.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Michigan State. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.12.7 pts over the market

Massey

51.52.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.82.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -114 (0.6%).

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +160 at DraftKings

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): DraftKings +160 (1.2%) · FanDuel +152 (-0.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (2.6%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (-6.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
Massey	+3.0	+133
Market (9 books)	+4.5	+181

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +4.5	-110	-117	+1.5%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+160	+152	+1.2%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 3.1.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Over 51.5

should be 53.2 · getting 1.7 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 12.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →

Market

Louisiana by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game

Massey

Louisiana by 9.54.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 12.50.9 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Charlotte. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

60.99.4 pts over the market

Massey

58.36.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.68.1 pts over the market

Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-660 86¢

All 5 books

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-660 86¢
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	51.5 -110	+460	-650
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -105	—	+425	-600
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	—	+400	-599
ReBet	+13.5 -109	—	+380	-625

Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Charlotte): FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (0.4%).

Not Nasty

Charlotte to win · +460 at FanDuel

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): FanDuel +460 (3.2%).

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 8.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.9%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $159 available; Under 51.5, only $159 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
Massey	+9.5	+260
Market (4 books)	+13.5	+540

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +13.5	-110	-112	+0.4%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+460	+375	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at Baylor

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Colorado +6.5

should be Colorado +6.5 at FanDuel

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Baylor →

Market

Baylor by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game

Massey

Baylor by 60.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Baylor by 6.50.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Colorado. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

56.54 pts over the market

Massey

51.21.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.81.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	52.5 -116 52¢	—	—

All 4 books

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Colorado ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	52.5 -116 52¢	—	—
FanDuel	-6.5 -118	52.5 -112	-260	+210
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	—	-280	+210
ReBet	-6.5 -125	—	-285	+204

Marked: best for Colorado, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado): FanDuel +6.5 at -104 (1.2%).

Not Nasty

Colorado to win · +210 at FanDuel

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Colorado to win): FanDuel +210 (2.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (-2.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +6.5, only $467 available; Under 52.5, only $459 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBaylor by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
Massey	-6.0	-181
Market (3 books)	-6.5	-245

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	53.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Colorado Buffaloes ML	+210	+191	+2.1%
Spread	Colorado Buffaloes +6.5	-104	-109	+1.2%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Iowa +4.5

should be Iowa +4.5 at DraftKings

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game

Massey

Michigan by 40.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Michigan by 4.50.2 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

39.92 pts over the market

Massey

38.40.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

39.11.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	-191 64¢	—

All 11 books

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	-191 64¢	—
Bally Bet	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
betPARX	-4.5 -110	37.5 -112	-205	+165
BetRivers	-4.5 -112	37.5 -113	-210	+163
Courtside	-4.5 -108	37.5 -108	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	37.5 -110	-192	+160
FanDuel	-5.5 -106	39.5 -110	-205	+168
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -110	37.5 -120	-240	+185
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-240	+182
ReBet	-4.5 -114	37.5 -125	-244	+178
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	39.5 -110	-200	+170

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): FanDuel +5.5 at -114 (1.8%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (0.9%).

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · +166

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Iowa to win): FanDuel +168 (1.8%) · DraftKings +160 (0.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 38.0 · -110

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 37.5 at -110 (0.0%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -110 (-5.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -4.5, only $94 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5, only $19 available; Over 39.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
Massey	-4.0	-147
Market (10 books)	-4.5	-193

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.0	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+166	+156	+1.6%
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +4.5	-110	-114	+0.9%
Total	Over 38.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSA

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Colorado State +13

should be Colorado State +12.5 · getting 0.5 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore UTSA →

Market

UTSA by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game

Massey

UTSA by 112.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

UTSA by 12.50.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

54.71.8 pts under the market

Massey

58.31.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

Colorado State +13.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +400 at FanDuel

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +400 (1.4%).

Off the band

the Over 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +13.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
Massey	-11.0	-306
Market (3 books)	-13.0	-487

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	56.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado State Rams +13.0	-110	-111	+0.2%
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+400	+368	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says Arkansas by 9.5, our data says Arkansas by 11

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 11, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Arkansas by 9.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game

Massey

Arkansas by 17.58.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arkansas by 111.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Arkansas. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 8 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

62.910.4 pts over the market

Massey

53.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

58.45.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.9 points of the book.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tulsa ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tulsa ML
FanDuel	-9.5 -105	52.5 -110	-345	+265
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	—	-360	+260
ReBet	-9.5 -111	—	-370	+255

Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas -9.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Arkansas): FanDuel -9.5 at -105 (0.2%).

Discounted

Arkansas to win · -360

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): FanDuel -345 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (0.7%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks -10.5, only $38 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane +10.5, only $40 available; Over 52.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas by 1121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
Massey	-17.5	-679
Market (3 books)	-9.5	-317

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	58.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks -9.5	-105	-106	+0.2%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	-360	-321	-2.0%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Wake Forest +13.5

should be Wake Forest +12.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game

Massey

Louisville by 11.51.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisville by 12.50.6 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Wake Forest. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.210.5 pts under the market

Massey

60.22.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.74 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	—	—	-564 84¢	—

All 11 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Wake Forest ML
Kalshi	—	—	-564 84¢	—
Bally Bet	-13.5 -110	58 -112	-625	+450
betPARX	-13.5 -110	58 -112	-625	+450
BetRivers	-13.5 -112	58 -113	-625	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -108	58.5 -108	-623	+487
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	58.5 -110	-650	+470
FanDuel	-12.5 -110	56.5 -115	-520	+385
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	57.5 -115	-550	+400
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	58 -110	-575	+380
ReBet	-13.5 -116	57.5 -119	-575	+360
theScore Bet	-12.5 -110	56.5 -115	-600	+400

Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (0.1%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

Not Nasty

Wake Forest to win · +470 at DraftKings

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings +470 (3.3%) · FanDuel +385 (0.2%).

Off the band

the Under 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 60. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (2.6%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -105 (-1.2%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +13.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -13.5, only $161 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5, only $17 available; Over 58.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
Massey	-11.5	-327
Market (10 books)	-13.5	-527

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	53.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.5	-110	-111	+0.1%
Moneyline	Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML	+470	+380	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling Green

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Under 53.5

should be 52.1 · getting 1.4 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says South Florida by 15, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

South Florida by 15

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game

FPI

hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game

Massey

South Florida by 17

Nasty Number

South Florida by 15.50.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

47.95.6 pts under the market

Massey

49.63.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.84.7 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	South Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-719 87¢

All 4 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	South Florida ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-719 87¢
FanDuel	+14.5 -110	53.5 -110	+530	-780
MyBookie.ag	+15.5 -110	—	+460	-752
ReBet	+15.5 -114	—	+450	-800

Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -15.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Florida): FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

South Florida to win · -766 at FanDuel

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Florida to win): Kalshi 87¢ (-3.6%) · FanDuel -780 (-4.4%).

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (1.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $56 available; Under 53.5, only $56 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Florida by 15.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI	hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
Massey	+17.0	+616
Market (3 books)	+15.0	+664

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls -15.0	-110	-104	-1.4%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	-766	-534	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia Southern

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Houston by 20.5, our data says Houston by 19

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 20.5.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

Houston by 20.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game

Massey

Houston by 14.5

Nasty Number

Houston by 191.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.61.1 pts over the market

Massey

53.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

54.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-1429 93¢

All 4 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-1429 93¢
FanDuel	+20.5 -110	54.5 -110	+860	-1600
MyBookie.ag	+20.5 -110	—	+700	-1493
ReBet	+20.5 -105	—	+660	-1587

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia Southern): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-0.9%).

Blowout line

Georgia Southern to win · +860 at FanDuel

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia Southern to win): FanDuel +860 (0.4%).

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5, only $17 available; Houston Cougars -20.5, only $153 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onHouston by 1921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
Massey	+14.5	+459
Market (3 books)	+20.5	+1257

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	54.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +20.5	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+860	+823	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Ohio State by 27, our data says Ohio State by 25

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 27

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game

Massey

Ohio State by 21

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 251.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.40.9 pts under the market

Massey

503.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.22.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois +27.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings +27.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM +27 at -108 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +26.5 at -105 (-0.7%).

Blowout line

Illinois to win · +2000 at DraftKings

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings +2000 (0.3%) · BetMGM +1900 (0.1%) · FanDuel +1600 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 2530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
Massey	-21.0	-1043
Market (10 books)	-27.0	-3863

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5	-110	-112	+0.6%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	+2000	+1859	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.8.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says James Madison by 3, our data says James Madison by 4

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 3, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 4. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →

Market

James Madison by 3

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game

FPI

hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game

Massey

James Madison by 7

Nasty Number

James Madison by 41.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.45.1 pts under the market

Massey

54.12.6 pts over the market

Weather

-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off

Nasty Number

49.32.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	James Madison ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	James Madison ML
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	51.5 -110	+128	-154
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	—	+125	-160
ReBet	+2.5 +100	—	+122	-163

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel -3.5 at -102 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -160

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (James Madison to win): FanDuel -154 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $50 available; Under 51.5, only $52 available; Old Dominion Monarchs ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI	hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
Massey	+7.0	+203
Market (3 books)	+3.0	+142

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -3.0	-110	-109	-0.2%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-160	-151	-1.4%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Tulane by 18.5, our data says Tulane by 18.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.5.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →

Market

Tulane by 18.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game

Massey

Tulane by 17.5

Nasty Number

Tulane by 18.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.32.2 pts under the market

Massey

48.65.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.44.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	Southern Miss ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Tulane spread	Total (over)	Tulane ML	Southern Miss ML
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1450	+810
MyBookie.ag	-18.5 -110	—	-1099	+590
ReBet	-18.5 -114	—	-1099	+570

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +18.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel +18.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

Blowout line

Southern Miss to win · +810 at FanDuel

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +810 (1.0%).

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave -18.5, only $275 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5, only $275 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $282 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTulane by 18.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
Massey	-17.5	-667
Market (3 books)	-18.5	-994

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+810	+734	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCF

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am

Under 51.5

should be 50.2 · getting 1.3 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 2, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more TCU than the bookmore UCF →

Market

TCU by 2

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game

FPI

hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game

Massey

TCU by 2.5

Nasty Number

TCU by 20.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5

The Four

SP+ pace

44.66.9 pts under the market

Massey

49.42.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

474.5 pts under the market

Under 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	TCU ML
Kalshi	—	51.5	—	—

All 4 books

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	TCU ML
Kalshi	—	51.5	—	—
FanDuel	+2.5 -114	51.5 -110	+105	-126
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	—	+103	-131
ReBet	+1.5 -109	—	+101	-133

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU -2.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): FanDuel -2.5 at -106 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

TCU to win · -131

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (TCU to win): FanDuel -126 (-0.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 49. That's 4.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 52¢ (-0.3%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +1.5, only $28 available; TCU Horned Frogs -1.5, only $29 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTCU by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPI	hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
Massey	+2.5	+130
Market (3 books)	+2.0	+116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	TCU Horned Frogs -2.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	TCU Horned Frogs ML	-131	-123	-1.5%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at Kentucky

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45am

No bet

market says Kentucky by 20.5, our data says Kentucky by 19.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

Kentucky by 20.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game

FPI

hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game

Massey

Kentucky by 15.5

Nasty Number

Kentucky by 19.51 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.70.8 pts under the market

Massey

53.11.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.41.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	South Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1429 93¢	—

All 5 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	South Alabama ML
Kalshi	—	—	-1429 93¢	—
FanDuel	-20.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1600	+860
Hard Rock Bet	-20.5 -115	—	-1200	+750
MyBookie.ag	-20.5 -110	—	-1493	+700
ReBet	-20.5 -125	—	-1587	+660

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-1.6%).

Blowout line

South Alabama to win · +860 at FanDuel

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): FanDuel +860 (0.1%).

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats -20.5, only $208 available; South Alabama Jaguars +20.5, only $24 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKentucky by 19.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI	hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
Massey	-15.5	-531
Market (4 books)	-20.5	-1198

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	53.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars +20.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	+860	+851	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at Akron

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 54.5

should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore Akron →

Market

UNLV by 14

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Akron's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Akron's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Akron's last game

Massey

UNLV by 13.5

Nasty Number

UNLV by 140.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.74.8 pts under the market

Massey

51.13.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.44.1 pts under the market

Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	UNLV ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	UNLV ML
FanDuel	+13.5 -104	54.5 -110	+460	-650
MyBookie.ag	+14.5 -110	—	+420	-676
ReBet	+14.5 -119	—	+410	-699

Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +14.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Akron): FanDuel +13.5 at -104 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +460 at FanDuel

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Akron to win): FanDuel +460 (0.8%).

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 4.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +14.5, only $29 available; UNLV Rebels -14.5, only $270 available; Over 54.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUNLV by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Akron's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Akron's last game
Massey	+13.5	+406
Market (3 books)	+14.0	+580

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +14.0	-110	-105	-1.1%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+460	+435	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western Michigan

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Boise State by 8, our data says Boise State by 8.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Boise State by 8

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game

Massey

Boise State by 9.5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 8.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Boise State by 6.5 to Boise State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

44.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

50.42.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.7on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Boise State -8.0 · -110

Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Boise State): DraftKings -7.5 at -112 (-6.3%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -110 (-7.8%).

Not Nasty

Boise State to win · -298 at DraftKings

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Boise State to win): DraftKings -298 (-4.8%) · FanDuel -330 (-6.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-3.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Boise State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
Massey	+9.5	+264
Market (3 books)	+8.0	+282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boise State Broncos -8.0	-110	+120	-6.9%
Moneyline	Boise State Broncos ML	-298	-235	-4.8%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at Maryland

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 54.5

should be 53.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 51.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Maryland →

Market

UCLA by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game

FPI

hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game

Massey

Maryland by 1

Nasty Number

UCLA by 1.51 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.45.1 pts under the market

Massey

51.43.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.44.1 pts under the market

Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	UCLA ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	—	—	—

Maryland +2.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Maryland): Kalshi or FanDuel +2.5 at -107 (-0.9%).

Not Nasty

Maryland to win · +110 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Maryland to win): FanDuel +110 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. That's 4.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins -2.5, only $163 available; Over 54.5, only $49 available; Under 54.5, only $483 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI	hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
Massey	-1.0	-108
Market (1 books)	+2.5	+121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +2.5	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+110	+116	-1.4%
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 3.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says New Mexico by 13.5, our data says New Mexico by 13

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 13.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore New Mexico State →

Market

New Mexico by 13.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New Mexico's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New Mexico's last game

Massey

New Mexico by 11

Nasty Number

New Mexico by 130.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

50.7on the market

Massey

55.34.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

532.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

New Mexico State +13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (New Mexico State): FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

New Mexico State to win · +430 at FanDuel

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): FanDuel +430 (1.8%).

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-0.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico by 1330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
Massey	+11.0	+319
Market (1 books)	+13.5	+536

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico State Aggies +13.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies ML	+430	+383	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at Purdue

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Notre Dame by 28, our data says Notre Dame by 27

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Notre Dame by 28

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game

Massey

Notre Dame by 25

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 270.9 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

552.1 pts under the market

Massey

57.60.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.30.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-2580 96¢

All 8 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-2580 96¢
Courtside	+27.5 -103	56.5 -113	+2246	—
DraftKings	+27.5 -105	56.5 -115	+2000	—
FanDuel	+27.5 -106	57.5 -110	+1600	—
Hard Rock Bet	+28.5 -115	57.5 -110	+1300	—
MyBookie.ag	+28.5 -110	57.5 -110	+1125	—
ReBet	+28.5 -116	57.5 -111	+1025	—
theScore Bet	+27.5 -105	56.5 -110	+1500	—

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +28.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Purdue): DraftKings +27.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · FanDuel +27.5 at -106 (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Purdue to win · +2000 at DraftKings

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Purdue to win): DraftKings +2000 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.9%).

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -110

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -105 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $53 available; Under 56.5, only $69 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $178 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 2730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
Massey	+25.0	+1756
Market (7 books)	+28.0	+3685

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +28.0	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+2000	+2404	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas Tech

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 55.5

should be 54.2 · getting 1.3 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 38.5.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →

Market

Texas Tech by 38.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game

Massey

Texas Tech by 35

Nasty Number

Texas Tech by 37.51.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

The Four

SP+ pace

52.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.15.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.24.3 pts under the market

Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Texas Tech spread	Total (over)	Texas Tech ML	Sam Houston ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Sam Houston +38.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Sam Houston): FanDuel +38.5 at -110 (0.5%).

Blowout line

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 4.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (0.9%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $156 available; Under 55.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 37.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
Massey	-35.0	—
Market (1 books)	-38.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +38.5	-110	-112	+0.5%
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at Toledo

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says San Diego State by 2.5, our data says San Diego State by 1

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says San Diego State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 1. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

San Diego State by 2.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game

FPI

hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game

Massey

Toledo by 4

Nasty Number

San Diego State by 11.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5

The Four

SP+ pace

40.87.7 pts under the market

Massey

48.6on the market

Nasty Number

44.73.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.8 points of the book.

Toledo +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Toledo): FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.7%).

Not Nasty

Toledo to win · +105

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Toledo to win): FanDuel +108 (-1.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 48.5 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Full detail

We settle onSan Diego State by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI	hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
Massey	-4.0	-147
Market (3 books)	+2.5	+119

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets +2.5	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	+105	+113	-1.8%
Total	Under 48.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

No bet

market says Penn State by 11, our data says Penn State by 13

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 11, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 13. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 11

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Massey

Penn State by 17

Nasty Number

Penn State by 131.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Penn State by 11.5 to Penn State by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

38.15.1 pts under the market

Massey

41.61.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.93.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Penn State -11.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): BetMGM -10.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -112 (-0.5%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -115 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · -450 at BetMGM

We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Penn State to win): BetMGM -450 (-2.4%) · FanDuel -465 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -500 (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 43.0 · -110

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (3.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -102 (2.6%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -115 (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 1330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Massey	-17.0	-621
Market (10 books)	-11.0	-463

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions -11.0	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	-450	-385	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pm

No bet

market says Virginia by 22, our data says Virginia by 23.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 22.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 22

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game

Massey

Virginia by 26

Nasty Number

Virginia by 23.51.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.44.1 pts under the market

Massey

53.71.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.62.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Delaware ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Delaware ML
FanDuel	-21.5 -110	55.5 -110	-2000	+980
MyBookie.ag	-22.5 -110	—	-1786	+780
ReBet	-22.5 -116	—	-1887	+730

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -22.0 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Virginia): FanDuel -21.5 at -110 (3.0%).

Blowout line

Virginia to win · -1887

We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Virginia to win): FanDuel -2000 (-1.8%).

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-0.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $153 available; Under 55.5, only $153 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $292 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 23.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
Massey	-26.0	-2106
Market (3 books)	-22.0	-1500

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -22.0	-110	-120	+2.2%
Moneyline	Virginia Cavaliers ML	-1887	-1422	priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pm

Under 54

should be 51.3 · getting 2.9 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →

Market

Miami by 42

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game

Massey

Miami by 38.5

Nasty Number

Miami by 411.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

41.412.8 pts under the market

Massey

47.66.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.59.7 pts under the market

Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Central Michigan ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 4 books

	Miami spread	Total (over)	Miami ML	Central Michigan ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
Courtside	-42.5 -108	54.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-42.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-41.5 -115	53.5 -115	—	—

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +42.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Michigan): DraftKings +42.5 at -110 (2.0%) · FanDuel +41.5 at -105 (0.6%).

Blowout line

the Under 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 48. That's 9.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (5.7%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (4.3%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $57 available; Under 54.5, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 4130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
Massey	-38.5	—
Market (3 books)	-42.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	44.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-132	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 12, our data says Alabama by 12

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 12

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

FPI

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game

Massey

Alabama by 13

Nasty Number

Alabama by 120.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

41.310.5 pts under the market

Massey

51.40.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.45.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 9 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	South Carolina ML
Bally Bet	-12.5 -109	51.5 -110	-560	+400
betPARX	-12.5 -109	51.5 -110	-560	+400
BetRivers	-12.5 -110	51.5 -112	-590	+400
Courtside	-11.5 -108	51.5 -108	-440	+360
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	51.5 -110	-455	+350
FanDuel	-12.5 -110	54.5 -110	-520	+385
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	51.5 -120	-475	+350
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	51.5 -110	-500	+340
ReBet	-11.5 -114	51.5 -125	-526	+330

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -12.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings -11.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-4.8%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -455 (-3.8%) · FanDuel -520 (-5.6%).

Off the band

the Under 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (8.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (0.9%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -11.5, only $90 available; South Carolina Gamecocks +11.5, only $25 available; Over 53.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
Massey	-13.0	-388
Market (9 books)	-12.0	-455

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -12.0	-110	+108	-4.2%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-455	-359	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.3.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Arkansas State by 4.5, our data says Arkansas State by 5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →

Market

Arkansas State by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game

Massey

Arkansas State by 7.5

Nasty Number

Arkansas State by 50.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.71.2 pts over the market

Massey

54.3on the market

Nasty Number

550.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

Arkansas State -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas State): FanDuel -4.5 at -110 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

Arkansas State to win · -192 at FanDuel

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Arkansas State to win): FanDuel -192 (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas State by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
Massey	-7.5	-221
Market (3 books)	-4.5	-188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	55.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas State Red Wolves -4.5	-110	+105	-3.6%
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves ML	-192	-169	-2.9%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says NC State by 13, our data says NC State by 14

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →

Market

NC State by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game

Massey

NC State by 15.5

Nasty Number

NC State by 140.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

57.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

561.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.82.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

NC State -13.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (NC State): FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.3%).

Not Nasty

NC State to win · -549

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (NC State to win): FanDuel -520 (-2.6%).

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onNC State by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
Massey	-15.5	-533
Market (3 books)	-13.0	-478

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	NC State Wolfpack -13.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	-549	-435	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm

Under 59.5

should be 58.4 · getting 1.1 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 34.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game

Massey

SMU by 29

Nasty Number

SMU by 33.51.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.58 pts under the market

Massey

56.72.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

54.15.4 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

Missouri State +34.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): FanDuel +34.5 at -110 (-0.7%).

Blowout line

Missouri State to win · +4000 at FanDuel

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): FanDuel +4000 (-0.9%).

Off the band

the Under 59.5 · -110

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. That's 5.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 59.5 at -115 (-0.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 33.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
Massey	-29.0	-3184
Market (3 books)	-34.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	54.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri State Bears +34.5	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+4000	+6586	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm

No bet

market says Oregon State by 11, our data says Oregon State by 11.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Oregon State by 11

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game

Massey

Oregon State by 11.5

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.49.1 pts under the market

Massey

53.60.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.55 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5 points of the book.

Oregon State -11.0 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): FanDuel -10.5 at -115 (-5.4%).

Not Nasty

Oregon State to win · -500

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): FanDuel -480 (-6.4%).

Off the band

the Under 54.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (1.4%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 11.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
Massey	+11.5	+329
Market (3 books)	+11.0	+438

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers -11.0	-110	+112	-5.3%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	-500	-322	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.5	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pm

No bet

market says Fresno State by 13, our data says Fresno State by 14

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Fresno State by 13

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game

Massey

Fresno State by 15

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 140.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

SP+ pace

40.24.3 pts under the market

Massey

44.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.52 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

Fresno State -13.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · -550 at FanDuel

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): FanDuel -550 (-3.5%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
Massey	-15.0	-503
Market (4 books)	-13.0	-488

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	-550	-430	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pm

No bet

market says Georgia Tech by 5.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 6

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →

Market

Georgia Tech by 5.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game

Massey

Georgia Tech by 7

Nasty Number

Georgia Tech by 60.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.60.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.26.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.42.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	47.5 -110	+155	-188
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	—	+171	-224
ReBet	+5.5 -116	—	+167	-228

Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -5.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Georgia Tech to win · -188 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -188 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +5.5, only $477 available; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5, only $459 available; Over 47.5, only $466 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Tech by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
Massey	+7.0	+201
Market (3 books)	+5.5	+190

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.5	-105	+106	-2.7%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	-188	-180	-1.0%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pm

No bet

market says Washington by 9, our data says Washington by 10

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 10. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 9

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game

Massey

Washington by 12

Nasty Number

Washington by 100.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Washington by 7.5 to Washington by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

SP+ pace

40.84.9 pts under the market

Massey

45.40.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.12.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
Kalshi	—	—	-404 79¢	—

All 7 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
Kalshi	—	—	-404 79¢	—
Courtside	-9.5 -108	45.5 -108	-397	+329
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	45.5 -110	-410	+320
FanDuel	-9.5 -105	46.5 -105	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -115	45.5 -110	-375	+275
MyBookie.ag	-9 -110	45.5 -110	-391	+275
ReBet	-8.5 -116	45.5 -114	-400	+270

Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington -9.0 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Washington): FanDuel -9.5 at -105 (-3.2%) · DraftKings -9.5 at -110 (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

Washington to win · -345 at FanDuel

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Washington to win): FanDuel -345 (-3.9%) · Kalshi 79¢ (-6.5%) · DraftKings -410 (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (0.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Washington).

Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -9.5, only $468 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5, only $468 available; Over 45.5, only $159 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
Massey	-12.0	-350
Market (6 books)	-9.0	-346

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington Huskies -9.0	-110	+106	-3.9%
Moneyline	Washington Huskies ML	-345	-280	-3.9%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.8.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Sep 27

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 3

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 1.5

FPI

Panthers by 2

Sagarin

Panthers by 1

Massey

Browns by 2.5

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5

The Four

Massey

46.26.7 pts over the market

FPI

40.10.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.13.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Bally Bet	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetRivers	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetUS	+3 -110	40 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -114	39.5 -109	+125	-148
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	40.5 -110	+120	-142
FanDuel	+3 -112	39.5 -105	+130	-154
Fliff	+2.5 +100	39.5 -115	+120	-155
LowVig.ag	+3 -110	38.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	39.5 -110	+120	-154
ReBet	+2.5 +100	39.5 -110	+123	-151

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): FanDuel +3 at -112 (-1.0%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +130 at FanDuel

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Browns to win): FanDuel +130 (-1.2%) · Caesars +125 (-2.2%) · DraftKings +120 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 39.5 at -105 (1.0%) · Caesars 39.5 at -109 (0.1%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -110 (-3.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $0 available; Carolina Panthers ML, only $358 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+120
FPI	+2.0	+128
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+137

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-110	-108	-0.5%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+130	+137	-1.2%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 0.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Steelers by 2

Nasty Number

Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.52.6 pts over the market

FPI

44.51.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.50.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetUS	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	45.5 -115	+112	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -114	46.5 -105	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -115	45.5 -115	+110	-135
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-138
ReBet	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +112 at Caesars

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Steelers to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +110 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -105 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $1 available; Cincinnati Bengals ML, only $371 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Michael Pittman Jr. (WR, Steelers), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+103
FPI	+1.0	+113
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-2.0	-128
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+123

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+112	+128	-3.2%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

Texans by 1.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2

Massey

Texans by 1

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

51.16.5 pts over the market

FPI

43.90.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	+118 44¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetUS	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -106	44.5 -110	+119	-141
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+122	-144
Fliff	+2.5 -110	44.5 -115	+115	-145
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	45 -110	+114	-146
ReBet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -120	+116	-142

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-2.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-3.1%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +118 (44¢) at Kalshi

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Colts to win): FanDuel +122 (-2.1%) · Caesars or Kalshi +119 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +114 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+127
FPI	+1.5	+123
Sagarin	+2.0	+125
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+130

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +2.5	-105	+107	-2.9%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+118	+133	-2.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 4

Sagarin

Jaguars by 1.5

Massey

Jaguars by 2.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

43.72.1 pts under the market

FPI

45.20.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.41.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-131 55¢	—
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetUS	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -109	45.5 -114	-132	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	46.5 -105	-132	+112
Fliff	-2.5 -110	45.5 -115	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-137	+107
ReBet	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-134	+110

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-5.4%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Patriots to win): DraftKings +114 (-3.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel +112 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.

New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-114
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-1.5	-122
Massey	-2.5	-142
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +2.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+110	+132	-4.6%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 8.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10

Sagarin

Chiefs by 10.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

43.21.3 pts under the market

FPI

43.21.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.21.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetRivers	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetUS	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-480
DraftKings	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+350	-455
FanDuel	+8.5 -105	44.5 -110	+430	-590
Fliff	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+380	-580
LowVig.ag	+8.5 -105	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-549
ReBet	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+380	-526

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-6.7%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-7.9%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -455 (-7.5%) · Caesars -480 (-8.3%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-10.5%) · FanDuel -590 (-11.0%).

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+8.5	+294
FPI	+10.0	+341
Sagarin	+10.5	+369
Massey	+4.0	+161
Market (12 books)	+8.5	+455

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -8.5	-110	+119	-6.7%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-455	-292	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 6

FPI

Giants by 7.5

Sagarin

Giants by 5.5

Massey

Giants by 5.5

Nasty Number

Giants by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

45.62.9 pts over the market

FPI

44.31.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

452.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—

All 13 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-276 72¢	+208 31¢
Bally Bet	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—
betPARX	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetRivers	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetUS	-5.5 -115	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-5.5 -115	42.5 -110	-265	+215
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	43.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	42.5 -110	-275	+225
Fliff	-5.5 -120	42.5 -115	-285	+205
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -110	42 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	42.5 -110	-270	+202
ReBet	-5.5 -120	42.5 -120	-260	+206

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -5.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings -5.5 at -110 (-4.0%) · Caesars -5.5 at -115 (-5.1%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-6.2%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -250 at DraftKings

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -250 (-4.8%) · Caesars -265 (-6.0%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -275 (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 42.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-204
FPI	-7.5	-245
Sagarin	-5.5	-200
Massey	-5.5	-197
Market (12 books)	-5.5	-245

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -5.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-250	-200	-4.8%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1

FPI

Commanders by 6.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1

Massey

Seahawks by 3

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

45.73.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.43.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

420.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Bally Bet	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetUS	+2.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	41.5 -114	+107	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+102	-120
Fliff	+2.5 -115	41.5 -115	+105	-130
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	41.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+105	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+107	-131

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Commanders): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +114 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Commanders to win): DraftKings +114 (-2.8%) · Caesars +107 (-4.4%) · FanDuel +102 (-5.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Caesars 41.5 at -114 (-2.2%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $423 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $225 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 4 more.

Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+153
FPI	-6.5	-171
Sagarin	+1.0	+148
Massey	+3.0	+192
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington Commanders +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+114	+128	-2.8%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	+102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 10

FPI

49ers by 11

Sagarin

49ers by 12.5

Massey

49ers by 6.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 90.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

471.1 pts under the market

FPI

49.11 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-490 82¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-490 82¢	—
Bally Bet	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetRivers	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetUS	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-8.5 -110	48.5 -105	-500	+375
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	47.5 -110	-455	+350
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	48.5 -110	-550	+410
Fliff	-8.5 -115	48.5 -105	-540	+360
LowVig.ag	-8.5 -105	48.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-461	+320
ReBet	-9.5 -110	48.5 -109	-450	+330

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (49ers): DraftKings or Caesars -8.5 at -110 (-5.4%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -115 (-6.5%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (49ers to win): DraftKings -455 (-6.4%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-7.5%) · Caesars -500 (-7.8%) · FanDuel -550 (-9.1%).

Off the band

the Under 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-4.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $79 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).

San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-332
FPI	-11.0	-380
Sagarin	-12.5	-472
Massey	-6.5	-219
Market (12 books)	-8.5	-441

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.5	-110	+113	-5.4%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-455	-309	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.0	-110	+101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 57 in 100 · -116

A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 53.8 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 5.54.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 31.5 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 10.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 20.8 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Massey at Buccaneers by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.72.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.95.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.31.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	—
Bally Bet	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetRivers	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetUS	-1.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	-1.5 -110	45.5 -114	-120	+101
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	45.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	46.5 -110	-116	-102
Fliff	-1.5 -110	46.5 -110	-125	+100
LowVig.ag	-1 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	46 -110	-126	-101
ReBet	-1.5 -110	45.5 -120	-123	+101

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -1.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel -1.5 at -105 (2.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars -1.5 at -110 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel

We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel -116 (2.9%) · Caesars -120 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -125 (1.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -116 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $220 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-139
FPI	-5.5	-147
Sagarin	-3.0	-106
Massey	-1.0	+120
Market (12 books)	-1.5	-111

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5	-105	-117	+2.7%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	-116	-131	+2.9%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral

No bet

market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 4

FPI

Ravens by 3

Sagarin

Ravens by 3

Massey

Ravens by 6

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

Massey

541.5 pts over the market

FPI

51.41.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.7on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—
betPARX	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetRivers	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetUS	+3 -110	53 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -107	52.5 -109	+132	-157
DraftKings	+3 -110	52.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -105	+148	-176
Fliff	+3.5 -125	52.5 -110	+135	-170
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	52 -113	—	—
ReBet	+3.5 -133	52.5 -110	+128	-157

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -159

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -155 (-1.2%) · Caesars -157 (-1.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -175 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars 52.5 at -109 (-2.1%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $444 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.0	+163
FPI	+3.0	+140
Sagarin	+3.0	+146
Massey	+6.0	+214
Market (11 books)	+3.0	+148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-159	-148	-1.8%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 4

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.83.1 pts under the market

FPI

414 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.43.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	—
Bally Bet	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetRivers	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetUS	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -114	44.5 -118	-164	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-3 -115	44.5 -115	-174	+146
Fliff	-3.5 +100	44.5 -115	-175	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	45 -110	-172	+134
ReBet	-3.5 -105	45.5 -109	-168	+137

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): DraftKings -3 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -3 at -115 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -163 at Caesars

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Saints to win): DraftKings -162 (-2.4%) · Caesars -164 (-2.7%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -174 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (0.1%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -105 (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $354 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-138
FPI	-4.5	-169
Sagarin	-4.0	-158
Massey	-3.0	-147
Market (12 books)	-3.0	-152

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-163	-147	-2.6%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pm

No bet

market says Rams by 2.5, our data says Rams by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Rams by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 2

FPI

Rams by 2.5

Sagarin

Rams by 2

Massey

Rams by 1

Nasty Number

Rams by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

44.41.8 pts under the market

FPI

424.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.23 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
Bally Bet	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetRivers	+2.5 -113	46.5 -110	+108	-132
BetUS	+2.5 -105	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	46.5 -105	+114	-134
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -112	46.5 -105	+112	-132
Fliff	+2.5 -115	46.5 -105	+110	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	45.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-137
ReBet	+2.5 -110	46.5 -109	+110	-135

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Broncos +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Broncos): DraftKings or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-4.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Broncos to win · +110

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Broncos to win): DraftKings or Caesars +114 (-3.9%) · FanDuel +112 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $368 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Los Angeles Rams has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+122
FPI	+2.5	+130
Sagarin	+2.0	+126
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Denver Broncos +2.5	-110	+107	-4.2%
Moneyline	Denver Broncos ML	+110	+133	-4.7%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 2-3, -1.2u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.9 pts vs the close on 5 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-3-1.22 units · -24% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.9 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 6 posted picks

Open1call waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-340%-1.22 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.9 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

0-2 · -2.00 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty2-250%-0.18 units4 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 4. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-1 · +0.82 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty14-1647%-3.19 units30 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-4 · -2.11 units

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nastiest	0-1	0.0%	-1.0 u	small sample
Nasty Pick	2-2	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	2-2	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	14-16	46.7%	-3.2 u
Not Nasty	127 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 06:03.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 69 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	7.70	54
FPI	9.83	109
SP+	10.01	109
The market	10.19	160
Sagarin	11.75	150

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.13	55
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.02	54
SP+	1.00	0.50	0.01	55
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.08	69

The line archive, 160 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 59, and sat still 26. Our side taken at the open finished 0.47 points better than the close on average over 150 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.35, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.28, Kalshi 9.67, MyBookie.ag 9.80.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 3-3, +0.70 units, +0.1 pts vs the close on 2.

NFL

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.13	17
nfelo	11.26	17
Sagarin	11.73	17

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 13 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.55Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 71%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Wyoming at Central Michigan	Under	40	40	+0.0	same side
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	Over	44.5	44.5	+0.0	same side
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans	Over	46.5	46.5	+0.0	same side
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cleveland +9	9	9	+0.0	flipped
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers	Las Vegas +7	7	7	+0.0	flipped
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears	Minnesota +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	same side
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans +9	9	9	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +7	7	7	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Over	41	41	+0.0	flipped
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys	Over	50.5	50.5	+0.0	same side
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams	New York +7	7	7	+0.0	same side

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 111 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	60	14.7	18-25 (42%)	12-13 (48%)
Massey	64	13.7	14-16 (47%)	5-10 (33%)
The blend	65	14.0	14-21 (40%)	9-9 (50%)

NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	3	6.1	3-0 (100%)	—
FPI	1	18.6	—	—
The blend	3	6.7	2-0 (100%)	—

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

73 priced · 2 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit: 3 problems

The audit found 3 problems at Sun 6:03am. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. posted call not graded: Virginia at West Virginia, played Sat Sep 19 posted call not graded: Kansas at Arizona State, played Sat Sep 19 bet not graded: Virginia at West Virginia, played Sat Sep 19

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 86 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 6 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

What's changed since 12:57am

OffPhiladelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans dropped off. It was Tennessee Titans +7.5.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public
→ 1.0Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Texas Longhornswith the public
→ 0.8Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan Broncostoward Boise State Broncoswith the public
→ 0.5Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan Wolverinestoward Iowa Hawkeyesagainst the public
→ 0.5South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson Tidetoward Alabama Crimson Tidewith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

9.21Points off per game at that weight

9.21The market on its own

69Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 24% (one standard error, 69 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	54	7.70
FPI	111	9.85
SP+	109	10.01
The market	177	10.28
Sagarin	167	11.75

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	80-85	48%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 816192 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	86	1.88
LowVig.ag	204	1.44
BetOnline.ag	210	1.44
DraftKings	236	1.40
FanDuel	260	1.35
BetRivers	244	1.27
BetMGM	196	1.25
Bovada	199	1.21
Caesars	186	1.21
BetUS	155	1.15
Pinnacle	198	1.14
MyBookie.ag	159	1.13
TOM	191	1.10
Fanatics	179	1.09

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
nfelo updated 4 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Sep 20

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.