Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 7:33 pm · 2 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

A LITTLE NASTYJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs

James Madison Dukes ML

-250as called

A LITTLE NASTYLouisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers

Over 49.0

-115as called

A LITTLE NASTYKansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats

Over 55.0

-112as called

A LITTLE NASTYMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks

Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0

-110as called

A LITTLE NASTYOklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers

Under 61.5

-110as called

A LITTLE NASTYTroy Trojans at Utah State Aggies

Troy Trojans +3.0

-115as called

A LITTLE NASTYOregon Ducks at USC Trojans

Over 59.5

-118as called

NASTY PICKTexas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers

Texas A&M Aggies +9.5

-108as called

A LITTLE NASTYTulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks

Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0

-108as called

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 2 ptsGeorgia Tech -3-108 at BetMGM+4.7%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 9:19am at -3 -108. Now Georgia Tech -3 -108. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts-5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -4.5 Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 1.6 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -115 at TOM, a point better, 10 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.

Buck's Take

Two Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Georgia Tech -3 and Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.

Minnesota at Washington, Minnesota +12.5. Every system has Washington by 8.5; the market has Washington by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +13.5.

A little nasty, if you want action: 3 sneakies; the strongest is Sacramento State +6 (Massachusetts at Sacramento State) at 3.3% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -8, 1 point our way since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Georgia Tech at Stanford, Georgia Tech -3. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Minnesota at WashingtonMoved our way · 3 ptsMinnesota +12.5-110 · 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›

Becomes a Nasty Pick at +13.5 for -110 at TOM · 1 point away

Where, best first (Minnesota): TOM +12.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (1.3%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars +11.5 at -112 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -8. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the line has moved 1 point our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. All 4 on this side; the NFL cap keeps it a watch.

Cardinals at 49ersMoved our way · 1 pt49ers -8should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 1.5 ptsSun 3:05pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -7.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · TOM -8 at -105 (1.8%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM -8.5 at -105 (0.2%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -108 (-0.5%).

Massachusetts at Sacramento StateSacramento State +6should be Sacramento State +3.5 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGMSat 8:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM or TOM +6 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -108 (2.4%) · DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (2.0%).

Patriots at JaguarsPatriots +3should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.

Moved closer since the 4:39pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 4:39pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Minnesota at Washington 10:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +10.5 to +12.5; the price from -105 to -110; the market drifted 1.4 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
Cardinals at 49ers tomorrow 3:05pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -9.0 to -8.0; the price from -103 to -105.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:32pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:17am✓MasseySat 6:16am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 74 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPISat 6:16am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 11:55am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 26 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

7 gamesBest: Georgia Tech -3.0, Nasty Pick

GameThe call

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford

CFB 9:30pm

Georgia Tech -3Moved our way · 2 pts

should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -108 at BetMGM · was -5

Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Take Georgia Tech -3.0 at -108 at BetMGM. Market says Georgia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →

Market

Georgia Tech by 3TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

Georgia Tech by 9.56.6 pts our side

FPI

Georgia Tech by 84.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 51.9 pts our side

Massey

Georgia Tech by 8.55.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Georgia Tech by 4.51.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Georgia Tech, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Georgia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.61.9 pts under the market

Massey

53.33.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
TOM	+3 -112	49.5 -108	+127	-152
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	49.5 -103 49¢	+129 42¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+3 -109	48.5 -112	+131	-148

All 20 books

	Stanford spread	Total (over)	Stanford ML	Georgia Tech ML
TOM	+3 -112	49.5 -108	+127	-152
Kalshi	+2.5 +109 46¢	49.5 -103 49¢	+129 42¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -110	48.5 -110	+133	-162
BetAnything	+3 -110	49 -105	+130	-150
BetMGM	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -112	49.5 -108	+132	-152
betPARX	+3 -110	48.5 -110	+133	-162
BetRivers	+3 -112	48.5 -112	+132	-165
BetUS	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+129	-150
Bovada	+3 -115	49 -105	+130	-150
Caesars	+3 -106	49 -112	+133	-157
Courtside	+3 -108	69.5 -843	+133	-152
DraftKings	+3 -110	48.5 -115	+130	-155
FanDuel	+2.5 +102	48.5 -115	+122	-146
Fliff	+2.5 +100	48.5 -120	+125	-160
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 +105	48.5 -110	+130	-150
LowVig.ag	+3 -108	49.5 -106	+132	-152
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	49 -110	+129	-158
Pinnacle	+3 -109	48.5 -112	+131	-148
theScore Bet	+3.5 -125	49.5 -110	+135	-155

Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -3.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): BetMGM or TOM -3 at -108 (4.7%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -124 (4.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -110 (4.2%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (3.3%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 55¢ (2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Georgia Tech to win · -152 at TOM

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 60. That's value. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -146 (4.9%) · Kalshi 58¢ (4.5%) · BetMGM -150 (4.2%) · TOM -152 (3.9%) · DraftKings -155 (3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 49.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 49.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · Caesars 49 at -108 (-2.7%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 52¢ (-3.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 48.5 at -105 (-3.2%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -120 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +5.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Tech by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+318
FPI	+8.0	+284
Sagarin	+5.0	+185
Massey	+8.5	+302
Market (18 books)	+3.0	+133

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0	-108	-130	+4.7%
Moneyline	Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML	-152	-180	+3.9%
Total	Under 49.5	-112	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 13:21; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.8 consensus.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada

CFB 9:30pm

Nevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 1.6 pts

Bet it · now Nevada +6 · -115 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -115 at TOM, a point better, 10 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →

Market

Air Force by 6TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Air Force by 4.5

FPI

Air Force by 0.5

Sagarin

Nevada by 1.5

Massey

Air Force by 2.5

Nasty Number

Air Force by 4.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Air Force by 5 to Air Force by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

48.22.3 pts under the market

Massey

49.60.9 pts under the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

47.13.4 pts under the market

Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+6 -115	50.5 -110	+180	-230
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	50 -114	+190	-220

All 20 books

	Nevada spread	Total (over)	Nevada ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+6 -115	50.5 -110	+180	-230
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+6 -109	50.5 -108	+205	-265
BetAnything	+6 -110	50.5 -110	+195	-235
BetMGM	+5.5 -108	50.5 -110	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+6 -115	50.5 -110	+192	-230
betPARX	+6 -109	50.5 -108	+205	-265
BetRivers	+6 -109	50.5 -108	+205	-265
BetUS	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+195	-230
Bovada	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+185	-225
Caesars	+5.5 -107	50.5 -110	+190	-230
Courtside	—	65.5 -943	+199	-232
DraftKings	+5.5 -108	50.5 -110	+195	-238
FanDuel	+5.5 -106	50.5 -112	+176	-215
Fliff	+6.5 -125	50.5 -115	+185	-240
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -105	50.5 -110	+190	-250
LowVig.ag	+6 -111	50.5 -108	+192	-230
MyBookie.ag	+6 -110	50.5 -110	+192	-242
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	50 -114	+190	-220
theScore Bet	+5.5 -105	51.5 -105	+175	-210

Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +6.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel +5.5 at -106 (0.7%) · Caesars or Kalshi +5.5 at -107 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +5.5 at -108 (0.2%) · TOM +6 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Nevada to win · +195 at DraftKings

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Nevada to win): DraftKings +195 (2.2%) · Caesars +190 (1.7%) · BetMGM +185 (1.1%) · Kalshi or TOM +181 (0.6%) · FanDuel +176 (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (1.0%) · Caesars 50.5 at -109 (0.8%) · DraftKings or TOM 50.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Air Force).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +211 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+4.5	+180
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	-1.5	-109
Massey	+2.5	+121
Market (18 books)	+6.0	+188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	+195	+177	+2.2%
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack +6.0	-115	-115	-0.1%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 13:21; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +211 consensus.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington

CFB 10:00pm

Minnesota +12.5Moved our way · 3 pts

should be Minnesota +10 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +10

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Minnesota +12.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 12.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Washington by 93.4 pts our side

FPI

Washington by 75.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Washington by 7.55.1 pts our side

Massey

Washington by 9.52.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Washington by 102.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Minnesota. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 3 points more in Minnesota's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

42.23.8 pts under the market

Massey

45.50.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.92.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	-12.5 -110	46 -110	-465	+335
Kalshi	-11.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-11.5 -114	46 -107	-466	+367

All 20 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	-12.5 -110	46 -110	-465	+335
Kalshi	-11.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-11 -113	46 -109	-500	+375
BetAnything	-12 -110	46 -110	-475	+365
BetMGM	-12 -118	46.5 -108	-475	+360
BetOnline.ag	-12.5 -110	46 -110	-465	+361
betPARX	-11 -113	46 -109	-500	+375
BetRivers	-11 -113	46 -110	-590	+375
BetUS	-12 -110	46 -110	-465	+365
Bovada	-12.5 -105	46 -110	-490	+355
Caesars	-11.5 -109	46 -113	-440	+340
Courtside	—	49.5 -156	-440	+360
DraftKings	-12.5 -108	45.5 -112	-455	+350
FanDuel	-11.5 -110	45.5 -115	-465	+340
Fliff	-11.5 -120	46.5 -115	-495	+355
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -115	45.5 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-12.5 -106	46 -108	-465	+361
MyBookie.ag	-12 -110	46 -110	-481	+350
Pinnacle	-11.5 -114	46 -107	-466	+367
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	46.5 -110	-550	+380

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +12.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Minnesota): TOM +12.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (1.3%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars +11.5 at -112 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Minnesota to win · +360 at BetMGM

We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): BetMGM +360 (0.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +351 (0.0%) · FanDuel or Caesars +340 (-0.5%) · TOM +335 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (0.6%) · Caesars 46 at -108 (0.2%) · TOM 46 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +12.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +13.5. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers +11.5, only $57 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 1040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-9.0	-308
FPI	-7.0	-249
Sagarin	-7.5	-270
Massey	-9.5	-317
Market (18 books)	-12.5	-445

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Golden Gophers +12.5	-110	-118	+1.7%
Moneyline	Minnesota Golden Gophers ML	+360	+351	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Washington Huskies since 09-21 09:08.

TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.6 consensus.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State

CFB 8:00pm

Sacramento State +6

should be Sacramento State +3.5 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5

A Little Nasty · Sacramento StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Sacramento State. Market says Massachusetts by 6, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →

Market

Massachusetts by 6TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Sacramento State by 17.2 pts our side

FPI

Massachusetts by 11.55.5 pts against us

Sagarin

Sacramento State by 16.9 pts our side

Massey

Sacramento State by 410 pts our side

Nasty Number

Massachusetts by 3.52.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Sacramento State. FPI at Massachusetts by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Sacramento State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

44.94.1 pts under the market

Massey

53.44.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.2on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	Massachusetts ML
TOM	+6 -110	49 -115	+170	-210
Pinnacle	+5.5 -105	49 -110	+180	-207

All 18 books

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	Massachusetts ML
TOM	+6 -110	49 -115	+170	-210
Bally Bet	+5 -110	48.5 -112	+165	-210
BetAnything	+5.5 -110	49 -110	+175	-210
BetMGM	+6 -110	49.5 -105	+180	-220
BetOnline.ag	+6 -110	49 -115	+180	-210
betPARX	+5 -110	48.5 -112	+165	-210
BetRivers	+5 -110	48.5 -112	+165	-210
BetUS	+5.5 -110	49 -110	+180	-210
Bovada	+6 -110	49.5 -105	+185	-225
Courtside	—	34.5 +470	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	49.5 -110	+180	-218
FanDuel	+5.5 -108	48.5 -115	+176	-215
Fliff	+4.5 -105	48.5 -125	+170	-215
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -105	48.5 -115	+170	-220
LowVig.ag	+6 -106	49 -114	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	—	49 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+5.5 -105	49 -110	+180	-207
theScore Bet	+5.5 +100	49.5 -105	+180	-215

Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +6.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM or TOM +6 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -108 (2.4%) · DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (2.0%).

A Little Nasty

Sacramento State to win · +180 at DraftKings

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Sacramento State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +180 (2.6%) · FanDuel +176 (2.0%) · TOM +170 (1.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · TOM 49 at -115 (-3.3%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +6.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +196 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMassachusetts by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.0	-108
FPI	+11.5	+395
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	-4.0	-170
Market (17 books)	+6.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +6.0	-110	-126	+3.3%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+180	+161	+2.6%
Total	Over 49.0	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +196 consensus.

FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU

CFB 8:00pm

SMU -30.5

should be SMU -30.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 30.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 30.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

SMU by 31.5

FPI

SMU by 28

Sagarin

SMU by 33.5

Massey

SMU by 27.5

Nasty Number

SMU by 30.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from SMU by 34.5 to SMU by 30.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

57.61.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

56.23.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-30.5 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-30.5 -115	60 -111	—	—

All 20 books

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-30.5 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Bally Bet	-31.5 -110	59.5 -112	—	—
BetAnything	-30.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-30.5 -110	60.5 -108	—	+2800
BetOnline.ag	-30.5 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	-31.5 -110	59.5 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-31.5 -112	59.5 -113	—	—
BetUS	-30.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
Bovada	-30.5 -120	60.5 -105	—	—
Caesars	-30.5 -118	60 -112	—	+2100
Courtside	—	68.5 -319	—	+2889
DraftKings	-30.5 -112	60.5 -108	—	+2500
Fanatics	-30.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	+2800
FanDuel	-30.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	+2200
Fliff	-30.5 -120	60.5 -115	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-30.5 -110	60.5 -115	—	+1750
LowVig.ag	-30.5 -111	59.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-30.5 -110	60 -110	—	+1575
Pinnacle	-30.5 -115	60 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-30.5 -105	59.5 -110	—	—

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +30.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): Caesars +30.5 at -103 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM +30.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +30.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · FanDuel +30.5 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Missouri State to win · +2500 at DraftKings

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): Fanatics or BetMGM +2800 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +2500 (-1.1%) · FanDuel or Caesars +2200 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 59.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -112 (1.2%) · Caesars 60 at -108 (1.0%) · TOM 59.5 at -105 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -35.0, now -30.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Missouri State).

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 30.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-31.5	-4740
FPI	-28.0	-2521
Sagarin	-33.5	—
Massey	-27.5	-2294
Market (19 books)	-30.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	56.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri State Bears +30.5	-105	-101	-1.0%
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+2500	+3585	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.5	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Missouri State Bears since 09-23 09:07.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP

CFB 8:00pm

Oregon State -11

should be Oregon State -12 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Oregon State by 11TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Oregon State by 15

FPI

Oregon State by 14

Sagarin

Oregon State by 8.5

Massey

Oregon State by 12.5

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 121.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.27.8 pts under the market

Massey

56.90.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.53.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Oregon State ML
TOM	+11 -110	56 -115	+340	-450
Pinnacle	+10.5 +101	56.5 -104	+377	-481

All 19 books

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Oregon State ML
TOM	+11 -110	56 -115	+340	-450
Bally Bet	+11 -108	56 -109	+360	-480
BetAnything	+11.5 -110	56.5 -110	+385	-510
BetMGM	+11 -108	56.5 -110	+350	-450
BetOnline.ag	+11 -110	56 -115	+350	-450
betPARX	+11 -108	56 -109	+360	-480
BetRivers	+11 -109	56 -110	+350	-500
BetUS	+11.5 -115	57.5 -110	+355	-450
Bovada	+11.5 -110	56.5 -110	+370	-510
Caesars	+11 -109	56.5 -109	+350	-460
Courtside	—	78.5 -1963	+360	-440
DraftKings	+11.5 -115	56.5 -112	+350	-455
FanDuel	+10.5 -102	56.5 -106	+340	-450
Fliff	+11.5 -120	56.5 -115	+350	-485
Hard Rock Bet	+12.5 -110	56.5 -115	+350	-475
LowVig.ag	+11 -106	56 -114	+350	-450
MyBookie.ag	+11 -110	57 -110	+350	-481
Pinnacle	+10.5 +101	56.5 -104	+377	-481
theScore Bet	+11.5 -115	56.5 -105	+320	-425

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon State -11.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): DraftKings -11.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or TOM -11 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars -11 at -112 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -120 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon State to win · -450 at FanDuel

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings -450 (-1.5%) · Caesars -460 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Caesars 56.5 at -110 (1.6%) · TOM 56 at -105 (1.6%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +11.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward UTEP).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +355 here against +432 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has UTEP +12.5 while Pinnacle is at Oregon State by 10.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 1240% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+15.0	+543
FPI	+14.0	+472
Sagarin	+8.5	+300
Massey	+12.5	+416
Market (18 books)	+11.0	+355

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon State Beavers -11.0	-110	-107	-0.7%
Moneyline	Oregon State Beavers ML	-450	-408	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-105	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward UTEP Miners since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.5 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +432 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State

CFB 9:00pm

Fresno State -13.5

should be Fresno State -13.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Fresno State by 13.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Fresno State by 16.5

FPI

Fresno State by 15

Sagarin

Fresno State by 14.5

Massey

Fresno State by 15.5

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 13 to Fresno State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

39.63.4 pts under the market

Massey

44.11.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

41.81.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Rice ML
TOM	-13.5 -105	43 -115	-515	+365
Pinnacle	-12.5 -107	43.5 -111	-509	+395

All 19 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Rice ML
TOM	-13.5 -105	43 -115	-515	+365
Bally Bet	-12 -112	44.5 -107	-625	+430
BetAnything	-13 -110	43.5 -110	-550	+410
BetMGM	-12 -118	43.5 -110	-525	+400
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -105	43 -115	-515	+393
betPARX	-12 -112	44.5 -107	-625	+430
BetRivers	-12 -112	44.5 -107	-625	+430
BetUS	-13.5 -105	43 -115	-515	+400
Bovada	-12.5 -110	43.5 -115	-525	+375
Caesars	-13.5 -104	43.5 -115	-530	+400
Courtside	—	61.5 -1191	-501	+402
DraftKings	-12.5 -112	43.5 -115	-520	+390
FanDuel	-13.5 +100	43.5 -110	-600	+430
Fliff	-12.5 -120	43.5 -120	-575	+400
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	43.5 -115	-650	+450
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -101	43 -114	-515	+393
MyBookie.ag	-13 -110	44 -110	-589	+409
Pinnacle	-12.5 -107	43.5 -111	-509	+395
theScore Bet	-12.5 -110	43.5 -105	-650	+425

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +13.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rice): DraftKings +12.5 at -108 (-3.2%) · TOM +13.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · Caesars +13.5 at -117 (-3.8%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (-4.7%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -122 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rice to win · +430 at FanDuel

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Rice to win): FanDuel +430 (-0.4%) · Caesars or BetMGM +400 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +390 (-1.9%) · TOM +365 (-3.0%).

Off the band

the Over 43.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 43 at -115 (-3.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Rice). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus.

TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-16.5	-616
FPI	-15.0	-547
Sagarin	-14.5	-511
Massey	-15.5	-555
Market (18 books)	-13.5	-493

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	41.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +13.5	-115	-100	-3.4%
Moneyline	Rice Owls ML	+430	+441	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 43.0	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Rice Owls since 09-21 09:08; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus; total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · 49ers, Cardinals at 49ers

GameThe call

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

49ers -8Moved our way · 1 pt

should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -8.5

A Little Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 8, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.53.7 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 14.56.7 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 134.9 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 90.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 9.51.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

45.52.5 pts under the market

FPI

50.22.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.8on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-8 -105	48 -110	-365	+275
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 +101 48¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-8.5 +101	47.5 -116	-374	+304

All 25 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	-8 -105	48 -110	-365	+275
Kalshi	-7.5 -107 50¢	48.5 +101 48¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-8 -114	48 -107	-455	+335
BetAnything	-9 -102	48 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-8.5 -105	48 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 -103	48 -110	-400	+316
betPARX	-8 -114	48 -107	-455	+335
BetRivers	-8 -114	48 -107	-455	+335
BetUS	-9 -105	48 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-8 -110	48 -110	-390	+295
Caesars	-8 -115	47.5 -112	-410	+325
Courtside	—	41.5 +199	-426	+350
DraftKings	-8.5 -108	47.5 -115	-440	+340
Fanatics	-8 -110	48 -110	-400	+310
FanDuel	-8.5 -110	47.5 -118	-450	+350
Fliff	-8.5 -110	48.5 -105	-490	+330
Hard Rock Bet	-8 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-8 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-8 -115	47.5 -115	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-8.5 +101	48 -103	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-429	+320
Pinnacle	-8.5 +101	47.5 -116	-374	+304
Polymarket	-7.5 +100	48.5 +104	-355	+335
ReBet	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-410	+330
theScore Bet	-8 -115	47.5 -120	-425	+320

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -7.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · TOM -8 at -105 (1.8%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM -8.5 at -105 (0.2%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -108 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -365 at TOM

We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (49ers to win): TOM -365 (0.7%) · Kalshi 78¢ (-0.0%) · Fanatics -400 (-0.8%) · Caesars -410 (-1.2%) · BetMGM -425 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 53¢ (-2.5%) · Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -8.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +7.5, only $25 available; Under 48.5, only $60 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Demarcus Robinson (WR, 49ers), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Kalshi still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-451
FPI	-14.5	-649
Sagarin	-13.0	-497
Massey	-9.0	-356
Market (22 books)	-8.0	-349

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.0	-105	-113	+1.8%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-365	-381	+0.7%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Patriots +3

should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2.5

A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 3TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

a pick'em3 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 2.50.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Jaguars by 12.2 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 12 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Patriots. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

The Four

Massey

40.45.6 pts under the market

FPI

44.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.53.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-3 -104	46 -112	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	46.5	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -117	-149	+132

All 25 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-3 -104	46 -112	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	46.5	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetAnything	-2.5 -120	46 -110	-155	+135
BetMGM	-3 -105	46 -108	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -104	46 -112	-155	+135
betPARX	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetRivers	-3 -106	45.5 -112	-157	+132
BetUS	-3 +100	46 -110	-155	+134
Bovada	-2.5 -120	46 -110	-150	+130
Caesars	-3 -105	46 -112	-154	+130
Courtside	—	67.5 -3302	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -102	46.5 -105	-155	+130
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	46 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	45.5 -115	-158	+134
Fliff	-2.5 -125	45.5 -115	-160	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -105	46 -110	-150	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 +101	46 -109	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	-158	+128
Pinnacle	-2.5 -117	45.5 -117	-149	+132
Polymarket	-2.5 -117	46.5 +100	-150	+144
ReBet	-3 -110	46 -110	-154	+131
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	45.5 -115	-150	+130

Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +130 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +134 (2.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +130 (1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars or TOM 46 at -108 (1.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 46.5 at -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	PK	-100
FPI	-2.5	-128
Sagarin	-1.0	-104
Massey	-1.0	-105
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +3.0	-116	-123	+1.5%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+130	+122	+1.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-108	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at Lions

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Lions -6.5

should be Lions -7.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Lions →

Market

Lions by 6.5TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 92.7 pts our side

FPI

Lions by 81.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Lions by 8.52.1 pts our side

Massey

Lions by 8.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Lions by 7.50.8 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Lions. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

49.41.4 pts over the market

FPI

47.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.40.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Jets ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Pinnacle	-7 +107	48 -111	-296	+248

All 25 books

	Lions spread	Total (over)	Lions ML	Jets ML
TOM	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-290 73¢	+240 28¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	48 -115	-315	+245
BetMGM	-6.5 -112	48 -108	-300	+240
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -116	48 -115	-300	+245
betPARX	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetRivers	-6.5 -118	48 -112	-315	+250
BetUS	-6.5 -115	48 -115	-300	+250
Bovada	-6.5 -115	48 -115	-300	+250
Caesars	-6.5 -117	48.5 -107	-320	+250
Courtside	—	43.5 +169	-297	+251
DraftKings	-6.5 -120	48.5 -108	-305	+245
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	48 -110	-300	+240
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	48.5 -106	-310	+250
Fliff	-6.5 -120	48.5 -105	-345	+245
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	48 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-6.5 -115	48 -110	-325	+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-6.5 -115	48 -110	-325	+250
LowVig.ag	-7.5 +125	48 -113	-300	+245
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	48 -110	-300	+232
Pinnacle	-7 +107	48 -111	-296	+248
Polymarket	-6.5 -108	48.5 -104	-270	+257
ReBet	-6.5 -120	48 -110	-290	+238
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	48.5 -105	-290	+240

Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Lions): Kalshi or BetMGM -6.5 at -112 (1.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -115 (0.8%) · TOM -6.5 at -116 (0.6%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (0.4%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -120 (-0.2%).

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -300 at BetMGM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Lions to win): Kalshi 73¢ (0.9%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -300 (0.3%) · DraftKings -305 (-0.0%) · FanDuel -310 (-0.3%) · Caesars -320 (-0.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.4%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-2.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi 48.5 at -107 (-2.7%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -108 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.0	-366
FPI	-8.0	-325
Sagarin	-8.5	-351
Massey	-8.5	-337
Market (22 books)	-6.5	-287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -6.5	-116	-119	+0.6%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-300	-304	+0.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-115	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Giants -2.5

should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 4.51.8 pts our side

FPI

a pick'em2.6 pts against us

Sagarin

Giants by 4.52 pts our side

Massey

Giants by 4.52 pts our side

Nasty Number

Giants by 30.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.76.2 pts over the market

FPI

39.41.9 pts over the market

Weather

-5.222 mph wind, 75% chance of rain, takes 5.2 points off

Nasty Number

36.41.1 pts under the market

Under 37.5 is a weather call. 22 mph wind and 75% chance of rain, worth about 5.2 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	37.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	38.5 +103	-135	+120

All 25 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	37.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -113	38 -112	-141	+117
BetAnything	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-140	+120
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	37.5 -102	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-138	+118
betPARX	-2.5 -113	38 -112	-141	+117
BetRivers	-2.5 -113	38 -112	-141	+117
BetUS	-2 -115	37 -110	-140	+120
Bovada	-2.5 -110	38 -105	-140	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -113	37.5 -112	-139	+118
Courtside	—	59.5 -1295	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	37.5 -112	-135	+114
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -114	37.5 -102	-142	+120
Fliff	-2.5 -115	37.5 -115	-140	+115
Hard Rock Bet	-2 -115	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2 -115	37.5 -110	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2 -115	37.5 -110	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	37.5 -107	-138	+118
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	37.5 -110	-142	+116
Pinnacle	-2.5 -106	38.5 +103	-135	+120
Polymarket	-2.5 +100	38.5 +108	-127	+122
ReBet	-2 -125	37.5 -110	-139	+118
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	37.5 -105	-140	+120

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -110 (0.5%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -112 (0.0%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -138 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -135 (0.9%) · Kalshi 56¢ (0.7%) · TOM or Caesars -138 (0.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -140 (0.1%) · FanDuel -142 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 37.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 5.2 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 37.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Kalshi 37.5 at 50¢ (-0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 37.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 37.5 at -112 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 22 mph wind, 64°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

BetUS has the total at 37 while Pinnacle is at 38.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-192
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-4.5	-197
Massey	-4.5	-197
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-132

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.5	36.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -2.5	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-138	-140	+0.4%
Total	Over 37.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.5.

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Steelers +3.5

should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 1.52.1 pts our side

FPI

Bengals by 21.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Bengals by 1.52 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em3.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bengals by 30.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

Massey

43.80.8 pts over the market

FPI

42.10.9 pts under the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.21.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+150	-180
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -115	43 +103	+157	-180

All 25 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+150	-180
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetAnything	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+160	-185
BetMGM	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+157	-180
betPARX	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetRivers	+3.5 -113	42.5 -109	+160	-195
BetUS	+3.5 -115	43 -105	+155	-180
Bovada	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -112	42.5 -110	+157	-190
Courtside	—	41.5 +104	+153	-176
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	42.5 -112	+150	-180
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	42.5 -115	+152	-180
Fliff	+3.5 -115	42.5 -115	+155	-200
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -116	43 -102	+157	-180
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -115	42.5 -110	+151	-188
Pinnacle	+3.5 -115	43 +103	+157	-180
Polymarket	+3.5 -113	42.5 -104	+156	-163
ReBet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+155	-183
theScore Bet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -115	+155	-185

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +3.5 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (0.9%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (0.2%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (-0.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-1.1%).

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +157 at Caesars

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Steelers to win): Caesars +157 (0.8%) · Fanatics +155 (0.5%) · FanDuel +152 (0.0%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +150 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 39¢ (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-1.8%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-2.1%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.

Courtside has the total at 41.5 while Pinnacle is at 43. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+109
FPI	+2.0	+121
Sagarin	+1.5	+111
Massey	PK	+100
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	41.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+157	+152	+0.8%
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5	-115	-116	+0.2%
Total	Under 43.0	-115	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at Bills

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bills -7.5

should be Bills -7.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 7.5TOM, -101

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 8.51.1 pts our side

FPI

Bills by 91.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Bills by 5.51.9 pts against us

Massey

Bills by 91.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bills by 7.50.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Bills. Sagarin at Bills by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

Massey

48.71.3 pts under the market

FPI

49.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.91.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+265
Pinnacle	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-332	+274

All 24 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+265
Bally Bet	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetAnything	-7 -115	49.5 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-7 -112	50 -108	-350	+275
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -101	50 -110	-340	+274
betPARX	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetRivers	-7 -112	50 -110	-375	+280
BetUS	-7.5 +100	50 -110	-340	+275
Bovada	-7 -115	50 -110	-340	+270
Caesars	-7 -114	50 -110	-335	+265
Courtside	—	60.5 -497	-331	+277
DraftKings	-7 -112	49.5 -115	-340	+270
Fanatics	-7 -115	50 -110	-350	+275
FanDuel	-7.5 -102	50.5 -105	-370	+295
Fliff	-7.5 -105	50.5 -105	-415	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7.5 -105	50 -110	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-340	+274
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	50 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-7.5 +103	50 -107	-332	+274
Polymarket	-7.5 +104	50.5	-317	+300
ReBet	-7 -110	50 -110	-319	+260
theScore Bet	-7.5 +100	50.5 -105	-360	+280

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -7.5 · -101 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.6%) · TOM -7.5 at -101 (0.2%) · Caesars -7 at -114 (0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · Fanatics -7 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Bills to win · -340 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bills to win): Caesars -335 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or TOM -340 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -370 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Caesars 50 at -109 (-1.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.

DraftKings still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.1% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-348
FPI	-9.0	-363
Sagarin	-5.5	-217
Massey	-9.0	-362
Market (22 books)	-7.5	-325

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bills -7.5	-101	-102	+0.2%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bills ML	-340	-322	-0.9%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Seahawks -8

should be Seahawks -8 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 8TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 91.1 pts our side

FPI

Seahawks by 91 pts our side

Sagarin

Seahawks by 71 pts against us

Massey

Seahawks by 113 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 80.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Seahawks. Sagarin at Seahawks by 7 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM

The Four

Massey

44.54.5 pts over the market

FPI

44.24.2 pts over the market

Weather

-2.818 mph wind, takes 2.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.51.5 pts over the market

Under 40 is a weather call. 18 mph wind, worth about 2.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+8 -110	40 -115	+280	-370
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -102	40.5 +101	+297	-364

All 25 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+8 -110	40 -115	+280	-370
Kalshi	+7.5 -107 50¢	39.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
Bally Bet	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetAnything	+8 -110	40 -115	+292	-370
BetMGM	+7.5 -105	40 -120	+300	-375
BetOnline.ag	+8 -110	40 -115	+296	-370
betPARX	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetRivers	+8 -113	40.5 -108	+300	-385
BetUS	+9 -125	40 -115	+290	-360
Bovada	+8 -110	40 -110	+290	-380
Caesars	+7.5 -108	40 -113	+295	-390
Courtside	—	60.5 -3706	+329	-397
DraftKings	+7.5 -102	40.5 -102	+320	-410
Fanatics	+8 -110	40.5 -105	+290	-375
FanDuel	+7.5 -115	40.5 -105	+300	-375
Fliff	+7.5 -105	40.5 -105	+300	-435
Hard Rock Bet	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+7.5 -105	40 -110	+300	-400
LowVig.ag	+8 -105	40 -113	+296	-370
MyBookie.ag	+7.5 -110	40 -110	+295	-391
Pinnacle	+7.5 -102	40.5 +101	+297	-364
Polymarket	+7.5 +104	39.5 -108	+317	-335
ReBet	+8 -110	40 -110	+330	-420
theScore Bet	+7.5 -110	39.5 -115	+280	-360

Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Seahawks): FanDuel -7.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -7.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -8 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings -7.5 at -118 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -370 at TOM

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 73. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): Kalshi 77¢ (-1.4%) · TOM -370 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -375 (-2.0%) · Caesars -390 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -410 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 44. Weather takes 2.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 40.5 at -102 (0.2%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 52¢ (0.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 40.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 40 at -113 (-0.8%) · TOM 40 at -115 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 63°F, 49% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.2 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $200 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +344 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.0	+266
FPI	+9.0	+258
Sagarin	+7.0	+194
Massey	+11.0	+351
Market (22 books)	+8.0	+293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	41.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -7.5	-105	-106	+0.3%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-370	-333	-1.8%
Total	Over 40.0	-115	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +344 consensus.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Texans -1.5

should be Texans -1.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 1.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 0.5

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Texans by 0.5

Massey

Colts by 0.5

Nasty Number

Texans by 1.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.57 pts over the market

FPI

43.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.64.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	42.5 -112	+104	-124
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Pinnacle	+2 -114	42.5 -103	+108	-121

All 25 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	42.5 -112	+104	-124
Kalshi	+1.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-122
BetMGM	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	42.5 -112	+104	-124
betPARX	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetRivers	+1.5 -109	42.5 -113	+107	-130
BetUS	+1 -105	42.5 -110	+102	-122
Bovada	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+105	-125
Caesars	+1.5 -105	42.5 -113	+110	-129
Courtside	—	58.5 -1652	+107	-122
DraftKings	+1.5 -102	42.5 -112	+105	-125
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	42.5 -114	+110	-130
Fliff	+1.5 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-130
Hard Rock Bet	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -108	42.5 -109	+104	-124
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+103	-126
Pinnacle	+2 -114	42.5 -103	+108	-121
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	42.5	+108	-113
ReBet	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+105	-123
theScore Bet	+1.5 -105	42.5 -105	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +1.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +1.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +2 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel or TOM +1.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 50¢ (-1.4%) · Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +110 at Caesars

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Colts to win): Caesars or FanDuel +110 (0.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-0.9%) · TOM +104 (-1.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM 42.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Caesars 42.5 at -113 (0.7%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -114 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+101
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	+0.5	+102
Massey	-0.5	-101
Market (22 books)	+1.5	+109

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	46.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+110	+109	+0.2%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +1.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Total	Over 42.5	-112	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Panthers -2

should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 2TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2.5

FPI

Panthers by 3

Sagarin

Panthers by 2

Massey

Browns by 0.5

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

43.91.9 pts over the market

FPI

39.42.6 pts under the market

Weather

-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off

Nasty Number

40.21.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2 -108	42 -115	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -116	42 -110	+113	-127

All 25 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2 -108	42 -115	+120	-140
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetAnything	+2 -110	42.5 -110	+120	-140
BetMGM	+2.5 -112	42 -110	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2 -108	42 -115	+120	-140
betPARX	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	42 -110	+117	-141
BetUS	+2 -105	42.5 -110	+112	-132
Bovada	+2 -115	42 -115	+110	-130
Caesars	+2.5 -108	42.5 -106	+118	-139
Courtside	—	53.5 -550	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -108	42.5 -110	+120	-142
Fanatics	+2 -110	42 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -112	41.5 -115	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+120	-145
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -110	42 -110	+120	-140
LowVig.ag	+2 -103	42 -113	+120	-140
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	42.5 -110	+113	-138
Pinnacle	+2.5 -116	42 -110	+113	-127
Polymarket	+1.5 +104	41.5 -108	+122	-127
ReBet	+2.5 -109	42.5 -110	+115	-136
theScore Bet	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+115	-135

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers -2.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Panthers): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-0.6%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-0.7%) · TOM -2 at -112 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars -2.5 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · -130 at FanDuel

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Panthers to win): FanDuel -130 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 56¢ (-1.9%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -139 (-2.4%) · DraftKings -142 (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 42.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (0.6%) · TOM 42 at -105 (0.3%) · Kalshi 42.5 at 51¢ (0.2%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-0.3%) · BetMGM 42 at -108 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

Polymarket still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.5	+135
FPI	+3.0	+147
Sagarin	+2.0	+115
Massey	-0.5	-100
Market (22 books)	+2.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	40.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers -2.0	-112	-107	-1.2%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	-130	-126	-0.7%
Total	Under 42.0	-105	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.6.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Chiefs -10.5

should be Chiefs -10.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 10.5TOM, -113

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 9.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 9.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 10.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.91.6 pts under the market

FPI

45.3on the market

Nasty Number

44.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+10.5 -113	45.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -121 53¢	+530 15¢	-660 86¢
Pinnacle	+11.5 -133	45 -110	+529	-729

All 25 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+10.5 -113	45.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -121 53¢	+530 15¢	-660 86¢
Bally Bet	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetAnything	+10.5 -110	45 -110	+500	-700
BetMGM	+10.5 -112	45 -110	+500	-650
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -113	45.5 -105	+476	-650
betPARX	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetRivers	+10.5 -112	45 -112	+500	-715
BetUS	+10.5 -110	45 -110	+500	-700
Bovada	+10 -110	45 -115	+500	-750
Caesars	+10.5 -114	45.5 -106	+475	-675
Courtside	—	62.5 -2043	+471	-600
DraftKings	+10 -108	45.5 -108	+455	-625
Fanatics	+10.5 -115	45.5 -110	+500	-700
FanDuel	+10.5 -108	45.5 -105	+500	-700
Fliff	+10.5 -110	45.5 -110	+515	-870
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -110	45.5 -110	+500	-750
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+10.5 -110	45.5 -110	+500	-750
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+10.5 -110	45.5 -110	+500	-750
LowVig.ag	+10.5 -114	45.5 -102	+476	-650
MyBookie.ag	+10.5 -110	45 -110	+483	-728
Pinnacle	+11.5 -133	45 -110	+529	-729
Polymarket	+10.5 -113	44.5	+525	-567
ReBet	+10.5 -110	45 -110	+440	-599
theScore Bet	+10.5 -110	45.5 -105	+475	-750

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -10.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings -10 at -112 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -10.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars -10.5 at -106 (-1.4%) · TOM or Kalshi -10.5 at -107 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -625 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -625 (-5.0%) · BetMGM or Kalshi -650 (-5.5%) · Caesars -675 (-5.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -700 (-6.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · Caesars 45.5 at -114 (-1.7%) · BetMGM 45 at -108 (-1.9%) · FanDuel or TOM 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.

DraftKings still has Chiefs -10.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+9.5	+374
FPI	+10.5	+429
Sagarin	+9.5	+384
Massey	+4.5	+193
Market (22 books)	+10.5	+640

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	44.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -10.5	-107	-100	-1.6%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-625	-432	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

Vikings -1.5

should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Vikings by 1.5TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 0.5

FPI

Vikings by 0.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 0.5

Massey

Vikings by 2

Nasty Number

Vikings by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

43.71.2 pts over the market

FPI

41.21.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.4on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1.5 -116	42.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+2 -117	43 +103	+105	-118

All 25 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
TOM	+1.5 -116	42.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -107 50¢	+101 48¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetAnything	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+100	-120
BetMGM	+1 -115	42.5 -110	-105	-112
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -116	42.5 -110	+100	-120
betPARX	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetRivers	+1.5 -110	42.5 -109	+102	-124
BetUS	PK +100	42.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+1 -105	42.5 -105	+100	-120
Caesars	+1.5 -113	42.5 -109	+105	-124
Courtside	—	59.5 -2279	+102	-118
DraftKings	+1.5 -112	42.5 -110	+100	-120
Fanatics	+1 -110	42.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	42.5 -115	+106	-124
Fliff	+1.5 -115	42.5 -115	+100	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+1 -105	42.5 -115	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -112	42.5 -107	+100	-120
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+101	-123
Pinnacle	+2 -117	43 +103	+105	-118
Polymarket	+1.5 -104	42.5 +100	+108	-113
ReBet	+1.5 -110	42.5 -110	+102	-120
theScore Bet	+1.5 -115	42.5 -110	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -112 (-2.2%) · Caesars +1.5 at -113 (-2.4%) · Fanatics +1 at -110 (-2.9%) · Kalshi or TOM +1.5 at -116 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +102

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel +106 (-0.4%) · Caesars +105 (-0.6%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Fanatics +101 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -105 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 42.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -115 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Vikings).

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 6 more.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.

BetMGM still has Vikings -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Vikings by 2.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 140% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+102
FPI	+0.5	+101
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	+2.0	+120
Market (22 books)	+1.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	42.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5	-110	-103	-1.8%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+102	+108	-1.4%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutral

Ravens -3

should be Ravens -3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3TOM, +103

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 2

FPI

Ravens by 1

Sagarin

Ravens by 1.5

Massey

Ravens by 4

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

Massey

52.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

52.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.51 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 +103	53.5 -108	+152	-182
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	53 -114	+155	-176

All 25 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
TOM	+3 +103	53.5 -108	+152	-182
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetAnything	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+155	-180
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	53.5 -108	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3 +103	53.5 -110	+159	-182
betPARX	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -117	53 -110	+140	-175
BetUS	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+155	-180
Bovada	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -114	53.5 -107	+149	-176
Courtside	—	76.5 -4336	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3 -102	53.5 -108	+140	-166
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -114	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+140	-180
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	53.5 -110	+150	-180
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -115	53.5 -107	+159	-182
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+153	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	53 -114	+155	-176
Polymarket	+3.5 -113	53.5 +104	+156	-163
ReBet	+3.5 -120	53.5 -110	+149	-177
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	52.5 -115	+155	-185

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -118 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -118 (-2.8%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-3.6%) · TOM -3 at -123 (-3.9%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 49¢ (-3.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.1%).

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -166 at DraftKings

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -166 (-1.6%) · Caesars -176 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -178 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -180 (-3.5%) · TOM or Kalshi -182 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM 53.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

DraftKings still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+119
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+113
Massey	+4.0	+188
Market (22 books)	+3.0	+159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-118	-105	-2.8%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-166	-155	-1.6%
Total	Under 53.5	-112	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Saints -3

should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 3

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 3.5

Massey

Saints by 3.5

Nasty Number

Saints by 3.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.53 pts under the market

FPI

41.22.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.82.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 +106	44 +101	-176	+154

All 25 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+147
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetAnything	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3 -118	44 -110	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-177	+155
betPARX	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetRivers	-3 -117	44 -110	-177	+145
BetUS	-3 -120	43.5 -115	-175	+150
Bovada	-3 -120	43.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3 -118	43.5 -112	-173	+147
Courtside	—	61.5 -1702	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3 -122	43.5 -118	-185	+154
Fanatics	-3.5 +100	43.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3 -120	43.5 -112	-180	+152
Fliff	-3.5 +100	43.5 -120	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-180	+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-180	+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	43.5 -115	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 +107	43.5 -113	-177	+155
MyBookie.ag	-3 -120	44 -110	-173	+140
Pinnacle	-3.5 +106	44 +101	-176	+154
Polymarket	-3.5 +108	43.5	-163	+156
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -110	-178	+150
theScore Bet	-3.5 -105	43.5 -110	-185	+155

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -120 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars or BetMGM -3 at -118 (-0.4%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -3.5 at +101 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or TOM -3 at -120 (-0.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -122 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -177 at TOM

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Saints to win): Caesars -173 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -175 (-0.8%) · TOM -177 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -180 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -185 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (0.1%) · TOM 43.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Caesars or FanDuel 43.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $126 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.0	-158
FPI	-4.5	-191
Sagarin	-3.5	-177
Massey	-3.5	-174
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	40.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-120	-116	-0.8%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-177	-169	-1.0%
Total	Under 43.5	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

Rams -2

should be Rams -2 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Rams by 2TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1.5

FPI

Rams by 3

Sagarin

Rams by 2.5

Massey

Rams by 1.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

41.52 pts under the market

FPI

42.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

421.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
TOM	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -121 53¢	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	44 -107	+116	-131

All 25 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Rams ML
TOM	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -121 53¢	+109 46¢	-131 55¢
Bally Bet	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetAnything	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+115	-135
BetMGM	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-135
BetOnline.ag	+2 -107	43.5 -115	+113	-133
betPARX	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetRivers	+2 -112	44 -114	+107	-129
BetUS	+2 -105	44 -110	+115	-135
Bovada	+2 -105	44 -110	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -114	43.5 -120	+113	-134
Courtside	—	49.5 -213	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	43.5 -118	+110	-130
Fanatics	+2.5 -115	44 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -118	44.5 -105	+110	-130
Fliff	+2.5 -115	44.5 -110	+110	-140
Hard Rock Bet	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2 -110	44 -110	+110	-130
LowVig.ag	+2 -104	43.5 -113	+113	-133
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	44 -110	+111	-135
Pinnacle	+2.5 -110	44 -107	+116	-131
Polymarket	+1.5 +104	44.5	+117	-122
ReBet	+2.5 -110	44.5 -109	+113	-133
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	43.5 -120	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -2.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-1.5%) · BetMGM -2 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -133 at TOM

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.7%) · TOM or Caesars -133 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -135 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 44 at -108 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (-0.4%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, only $61 available; Over 44.5, only $182 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+113
FPI	+3.0	+144
Sagarin	+2.5	+122
Massey	+1.5	+114
Market (22 books)	+2.0	+118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -2.0	-113	-103	-2.3%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-133	-121	-2.2%
Total	Under 43.5	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 28

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears

NFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pm

Eagles -3.5

should be Eagles -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Eagles by 3.5TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 3.5

FPI

Eagles by 4

Sagarin

Eagles by 0.5

Massey

Eagles by 1.5

Nasty Number

Eagles by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42TOM

The Four

Massey

44.22.2 pts over the market

FPI

41.9on the market

Nasty Number

43.11.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+151	-181
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	42.5 +103	+161	-180

All 24 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+151	-181
Kalshi	+3.5 -116 52¢	42.5 -103 49¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
BetAnything	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+160	-185
BetMGM	—	42 -110	+155	-190
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -117	42 -115	+158	-181
betPARX	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
BetRivers	+3.5 -110	42 -109	+155	-190
Bovada	+3.5 -120	42 -110	+160	-185
Caesars	+3.5 -115	42.5 -106	+154	-182
Courtside	—	65.5 -6611	+168	-194
DraftKings	+3.5 -110	42.5 -105	+164	-198
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+155	-190
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	42.5 -105	+148	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -115	41.5 -110	+160	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+155	-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	42 -110	+155	-185
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -113	42 -113	+158	-181
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	42 -110	+154	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -116	42.5 +103	+161	-180
Polymarket	+3.5 -108	41.5	+170	-178
ReBet	+3.5 -120	42.5 -110	+156	-185
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	42.5 -105	+150	-175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · +164 at DraftKings

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings +164 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 37¢ (-2.1%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +155 (-2.7%) · TOM +151 (-3.3%) · FanDuel +148 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 49¢ (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars 42.5 at -106 (-1.4%) · TOM 42 at -115 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).

Kalshi thin: Over 41.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 4 more.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+104
FPI	+4.0	+112
Sagarin	+0.5	-118
Massey	+1.5	-108
Market (21 books)	+3.5	+158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears +3.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	+164	+174	-1.3%
Total	Over 42.0	-115	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Oct 1

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns

NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm

Browns +3

should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Steelers by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Steelers by 3

FPI

Steelers by 1.5

Sagarin

Steelers by 2

Massey

Steelers by 1

Nasty Number

Steelers by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

37.5

The Four

Massey

36.90.8 pts under the market

FPI

35.12.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

361.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	37.5	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—

All 14 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Steelers ML
Kalshi	+2.5 -112 51¢	37.5	—	—
Bally Bet	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -104	37.5 -110	+118	-143
BetUS	+1.5 -105	37.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -108	37.5 -113	+119	-139
Courtside	+3 -118	38.5 -108	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -120	38.5 -110	+124	-148
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	37.5 -105	+114	-134
Fliff	+2.5 -110	37.5 -110	+115	-145
LowVig.ag	+1.5 +100	37.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	37.5 -110	+114	-146
ReBet	+2.5 -105	37.5 -110	+119	-140

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +124 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Browns to win): DraftKings +124 (0.6%) · Caesars +119 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +114 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 37.5 · -110

Massey projects 37 and FPI projects 35. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 38.5 at -110 (1.6%) · Caesars 37.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 37.5 at -115 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F, 46% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 37.5, only $71 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $217 available; Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $277 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.0	+151
FPI	+1.5	+113
Sagarin	+2.0	+121
Massey	+1.0	+105
Market (13 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	37.5	36.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-120	-125	+0.9%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+124	+121	+0.6%
Total	Under 37.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 2

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech

CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm

Virginia Tech -6

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →

Market

Virginia Tech by 6

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.82.7 pts under the market

Massey

53.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.53 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	—	—	-208 66¢	—

All 4 books

	Virginia Tech spread	Total (over)	Virginia Tech ML	Pittsburgh ML
Kalshi	—	—	-208 66¢	—
Courtside	-6 -108	56.5 -108	-213	+184
DraftKings	-6 -110	56.5 -110	-218	+180
Fliff	—	56.5 -115	-225	+175

Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-0.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $25 available; Under 56.5, only $13 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $35 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Market (3 books)	-6.0	-201

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	53.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 56.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Oct 3

4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am

Notre Dame -21.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →

Market

Notre Dame by 21.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

46.83.7 pts under the market

Massey

47.23.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

473.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	+1074 8¢	-2580 96¢

All 4 books

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
Kalshi	—	—	+1074 8¢	-2580 96¢
Courtside	+21.5 -108	50.5 -108	+1177	-1882
DraftKings	+21.5 -110	50.5 -110	+1100	-2100
Fliff	+21.5 -115	50.5 -115	+1090	-2870

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-0.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game
Market (3 books)	+21.5	+1864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved up 1.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm

Tennessee -7.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Tennessee by 7.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5

The Four

SP+ pace

55.70.8 pts under the market

Massey

57.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.6on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	-322 75¢	—

All 4 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
Kalshi	—	—	-322 75¢	—
Courtside	-7.5 -108	56.5 -108	-278	+236
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	56.5 -110	-285	+230
Fliff	-7.5 -115	56.5 -115	-295	+225

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Over 56.5 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Auburn).

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game
Market (3 books)	-7.5	-262

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Over 56.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 1.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm

Ohio State -14.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →

Market

Ohio State by 14.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

SP+ pace

43.70.8 pts under the market

Massey

42.71.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.21.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

the Under 44.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game
Market (3 books)	+14.5	+622

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU

CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm

BYU -6.5

no bet

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →

Market

BYU by 6.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen TCU's last game

FPI

hasn't seen TCU's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen TCU's last game

Massey

hasn't seen TCU's last game

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

SP+ pace

51.31.2 pts under the market

Massey

53.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.20.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 3 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
Courtside	+6.5 -108	52.5 -108	+189	-220
DraftKings	+6.5 -110	52.5 -110	+185	-225
Fliff	+6.5 -115	52.5 -115	+180	-235

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 52.5 · -110

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $0 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen TCU's last game
FPI	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Massey	hasn't seen TCU's last game
Market (3 books)	+6.5	+208

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sun Oct 4

13 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral

Colts -4.5

should be Colts -4.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Colts by 4.5

The Four

nfelo

Colts by 5.5

FPI

Colts by 4.5

Sagarin

Colts by 2.5

Massey

Colts by 4

Nasty Number

Colts by 4.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

52.56.4 pts over the market

FPI

46.90.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.73.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
Bally Bet	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetOnline.ag	+4 -115	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetRivers	+4.5 -108	46 -113	+180	-225
BetUS	+4.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+4.5 -106	46.5 -104	—	—
DraftKings	+4.5 -110	46.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -105	46.5 -104	+190	-230
LowVig.ag	+4 -110	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	46 -110	+173	-226
Polymarket	—	—	—	-233
ReBet	+4.5 -110	46.5 -109	+177	-222

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · Caesars -4.5 at -114 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -115 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

Colts to win · -205 at DraftKings

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Colts to win): DraftKings -205 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -230 (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -104 (0.2%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $354 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $305 available; Washington Commanders +4.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onColts by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.5	+139
FPI	+4.5	+118
Sagarin	+2.5	+100
Massey	+4.0	+111
Market (11 books)	+4.5	+202

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts -4.5	-110	+101	-2.6%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	-205	-193	-1.3%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Giants -2.5

should be Giants -2.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 5

FPI

Giants by 0.5

Sagarin

Giants by 7

Massey

a pick'em

Nasty Number

Giants by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

The Four

Massey

44.20.7 pts over the market

FPI

41.61.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 9 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
Bally Bet	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
betPARX	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	43.5 -112	-141	+117
BetUS	-1.5 -110	44 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-139	+118
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	43.5 -115	-136	+116
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-142	+111
ReBet	-2.5 -120	43.5 -110	-139	+113

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -140 at Caesars

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings or FanDuel -135 (-1.8%) · Caesars -139 (-2.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $6 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $290 available; New York Giants -2.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-205
FPI	-0.5	-101
Sagarin	-7.0	-298
Massey	PK	-100
Market (9 books)	-2.5	-127

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -2.5	-110	-100	-2.4%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-140	-126	-2.7%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Ravens -10.5

should be Ravens -10.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 10.5

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 11

FPI

Ravens by 11

Sagarin

Ravens by 10.5

Massey

Ravens by 11

Nasty Number

Ravens by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

46.61.9 pts over the market

FPI

45.30.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

461.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-10 -104	45 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	-609 85¢	—
Bally Bet	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetOnline.ag	-10 -104	45 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetRivers	-10 -114	44.5 -110	-670	+460
BetUS	-10.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
Caesars	-10.5 -110	44.5 -114	-625	+450
DraftKings	-10.5 -110	44.5 -110	-575	+425
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	44.5 -118	-700	+500
LowVig.ag	-10 +101	45 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	45 -110	-676	+430
ReBet	-10.5 -110	44.5 -120	-649	+450

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -10.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -10.5 at -110 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -575 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -575 (-4.1%) · Kalshi 85¢ (-4.9%) · Caesars -625 (-5.2%) · FanDuel -700 (-6.5%).

Off the band

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 44.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -118 (-2.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $167 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $11 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 10.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.0	-440
FPI	-11.0	-435
Sagarin	-10.5	-421
Massey	-11.0	-437
Market (11 books)	-10.5	-578

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	46.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -10.5	-110	+101	-2.7%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-575	-428	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Bills -5.5

should be Bills -5.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 5

FPI

Bills by 5.5

Sagarin

Bills by 3.5

Massey

Bills by 4

Nasty Number

Bills by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.32.5 pts under the market

FPI

50.81 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.10.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-263 71¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -105	50 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-263 71¢	—
Bally Bet	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
betPARX	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetRivers	-5.5 -112	49.5 -113	-265	+210
BetUS	-5.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-5.5 -110	49.5 -115	-260	+210
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -115	50.5 -104	-260	+215
LowVig.ag	-5.5 +100	50 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	50 -110	-250	+189
Polymarket	—	—	-270	—
ReBet	-5.5 -110	49.5 -120	-244	+194

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +5.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): FanDuel +5.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +210 at Caesars

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Patriots to win): FanDuel +215 (-0.2%) · Caesars +210 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +205 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · Caesars 49.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $220 available; Buffalo Bills -5.5, only $348 available; New England Patriots +5.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-206
FPI	-5.5	-224
Sagarin	-3.5	-171
Massey	-4.0	-184
Market (11 books)	-5.5	-234

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +5.5	-105	-101	-1.0%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+210	+217	-0.7%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Bears -3

should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 3

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 3.5

FPI

Bears by 1

Sagarin

Bears by 6.5

Massey

Bears by 4.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 3.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5

The Four

Massey

43.1on the market

FPI

40.13.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.61.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
Bally Bet	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -110	43.5 -110	-182	+150
BetUS	-3 -110	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -109	43.5 -106	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -115	43.5 -110	-166	+140
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	43.5 -105	-190	+160
LowVig.ag	-3 -105	43 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	43.5 -110	-186	+144
Polymarket	—	—	-203	—
ReBet	-3.5 -109	43.5 -110	-182	+147

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bears): Caesars -3 at -109 (0.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -110 (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -166 at DraftKings

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings -166 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -190 (-3.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 43.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (-2.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $292 available; New York Jets ML, only $383 available; New York Jets ML, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-234
FPI	-1.0	-167
Sagarin	-6.5	-360
Massey	-4.5	-298
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-166

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	41.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -3.0	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-166	-162	-0.6%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Jaguars +3

should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 3.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

Bengals by 2.5

Massey

Bengals by 1

Nasty Number

Bengals by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.62.6 pts under the market

FPI

47.42.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -125	50.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
Bally Bet	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -125	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetRivers	-2.5 -118	50 -114	-152	+125
BetUS	-2.5 -125	49.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	50.5 -106	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -110	49.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	50.5 -118	-144	+122
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -121	50.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	50.5 -110	-157	+123
Polymarket	—	—	-163	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	50.5 -110	-154	+125

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.0%).

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +136 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings +136 (2.3%) · FanDuel +122 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -104 (1.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $18 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $256 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-166
FPI	-1.0	-106
Sagarin	-2.5	-123
Massey	-1.0	-106
Market (11 books)	-2.5	-140

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-110	-122	+2.5%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+136	+124	+2.3%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Cowboys +3

should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 3

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Texans by 1

Massey

Texans by 3

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5

The Four

Massey

49.62 pts over the market

FPI

47.30.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	47.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
Kalshi	—	—	-155 59¢	—
Bally Bet	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	47.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetRivers	-2.5 -118	47.5 -112	-152	+125
BetUS	-3 -105	48 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -106	47.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-3 -110	47.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	47.5 -105	-146	+124
LowVig.ag	-3 +100	47.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	47.5 -110	-159	+124
Polymarket	—	—	-156	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	47.5 -110	-156	+127

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.1%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · +136 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): DraftKings +136 (1.8%) · FanDuel +124 (-0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 47.5 · -110

Massey projects 50 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -110 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $56 available; Over 47.5, only $332 available; Under 47.5, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.0	-119
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	-3.0	-149
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys +3.0	-110	-120	+2.1%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	+136	+126	+1.8%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm

Eagles +3

should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →

Market

Rams by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1

FPI

Rams by 1

Sagarin

Rams by 1.5

Massey

Rams by 0.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 20.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

44.12 pts under the market

FPI

45.30.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.71.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46.5 -110	+114	-143
BetUS	+2.5 +100	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -106	46.5 -102	+122	-145
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+3 -118	46.5 -104	+128	-152
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+116	-148
Polymarket	—	—	—	-150
ReBet	+2.5 -105	45.5 -120	+118	-145

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel +3 at -118 (1.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -115 (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +128 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +128 (1.3%) · Caesars +122 (0.1%) · DraftKings +114 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -118 (-2.1%) · Caesars 46.5 at -120 (-2.5%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $233 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $381 available; Los Angeles Rams -2.5, only $387 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+107
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+113
Massey	+0.5	+101
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +3.0	-118	-124	+1.3%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+128	+121	+1.3%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm

Vikings -10.5

should be Vikings -10.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 10.5

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 12

FPI

Vikings by 11.5

Sagarin

Vikings by 11.5

Massey

Vikings by 9

Nasty Number

Vikings by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

40.81.9 pts under the market

FPI

40.32.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.52.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-10 -120	42.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
Bally Bet	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetOnline.ag	-10 -120	42.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetRivers	-10.5 -108	43 -110	-625	+440
BetUS	-10.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	42.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	-10.5 -110	42.5 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-10.5 -102	43.5 -105	-560	+420
LowVig.ag	-10 -116	42.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	42.5 -110	-676	+430
ReBet	-10.5 -110	42.5 -120	-649	+450

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.5 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -560 at FanDuel

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel -560 (-3.6%) · DraftKings -700 (-6.3%).

Off the band

the Under 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $416 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $79 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 10.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-12.0	-456
FPI	-11.5	-444
Sagarin	-11.5	-441
Massey	-9.0	-361
Market (11 books)	-10.5	-564

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	40.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -10.5	-102	-101	-0.3%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-560	-432	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

49ers to win

our data says 64 in 100 · -146

A Little Nasty · 49ers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 3

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 4.51.4 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 9.56.5 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 4.51.3 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 6.53.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 3.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.24.7 pts under the market

FPI

471.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.11.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
Kalshi	—	—	-161 60¢	—
Bally Bet	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetOnline.ag	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetRivers	-3 -110	46 -109	-155	+128
BetUS	-3 +100	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -112	45.5 -117	-159	+135
DraftKings	-3 -120	45.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3 -102	46.5 -110	-146	+124
LowVig.ag	-3 +100	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	46 -110	-175	+136
ReBet	-3.5 +100	45.5 -120	-160	+130

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -3.0 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel -3 at -102 (4.5%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (2.1%) · DraftKings -3 at -120 (0.4%).

Same call

49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 59. That's value. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel -146 (4.5%) · Caesars -159 (2.4%) · Kalshi 60¢ (2.1%) · DraftKings -175 (0.2%).

A Little Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $2 available; San Francisco 49ers ML, only $448 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $314 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.5	-192
FPI	-9.5	-380
Sagarin	-4.5	-191
Massey	-6.5	-270
Market (11 books)	-3.0	-146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -3.0	-102	-122	+4.5%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-146	-176	+4.5%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

Chiefs -5.5

should be Chiefs -5.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Chiefs by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 4.5

FPI

Chiefs by 5.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 4.5

Massey

Chiefs by 3

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5

The Four

Massey

41.54 pts under the market

FPI

42.72.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.13.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
Bally Bet	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetRivers	+5.5 -107	45.5 -109	+200	-250
BetUS	+5.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	+5.5 -110	45.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	+6 -110	45.5 -110	+210	-258
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	45.5 -118	+198	-240
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -105	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+191	-250
ReBet	+5.5 -110	45.5 -110	+195	-246

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +6 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -115 (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +210 at DraftKings

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +210 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +198 (-1.8%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -104 (1.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (0.6%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $147 available; Kansas City Chiefs ML, only $489 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $314 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.5	+193
FPI	+5.5	+218
Sagarin	+4.5	+197
Massey	+3.0	+144
Market (11 books)	+5.5	+227

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.0	-110	-110	+0.1%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+210	+215	-0.5%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm

Seahawks -6.5

should be Seahawks -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 6.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 7.5

FPI

Seahawks by 8.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 5.5

Massey

Seahawks by 11.5

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 70.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

394.2 pts under the market

FPI

41.12.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.13.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

Seahawks -6.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): DraftKings or Caesars -6.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -7 at -105 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -285 at DraftKings

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): DraftKings -285 (-0.2%) · Caesars -320 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -340 (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, only $354 available; Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $330 available; Seattle Seahawks ML, only $456 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-320
FPI	-8.5	-355
Sagarin	-5.5	-225
Massey	-11.5	-447
Market (11 books)	-6.5	-291

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	40.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -6.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-285	-283	-0.2%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers

NFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm

Lions -2.5

should be Lions -2.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Lions by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 2

FPI

Lions by 1.5

Sagarin

Lions by 1.5

Massey

Lions by 3

Nasty Number

Lions by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

Massey

55.15.6 pts over the market

FPI

490.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.12.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—

All 13 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetRivers	+3 -114	49.5 -110	+123	-150
BetUS	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -103	49.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	+3 -120	49.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+118	-138
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +102	49.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+118	-151
Polymarket	—	—	—	-144
ReBet	+2.5 -105	49.5 -110	+121	-148

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.1%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +130 at DraftKings

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Panthers to win): DraftKings +130 (0.9%) · FanDuel +118 (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110

Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-0.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Carolina Panthers ML, only $276 available; Carolina Panthers +2.5, only $324 available; Detroit Lions -2.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Ben Bartch (G, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 5 more.

Detroit Lions has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+114
FPI	+1.5	+112
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	+3.0	+134
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	52.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +3.0	-120	-120	+0.1%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+130	+125	+0.9%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 3-4, -1.3u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.4 pts vs the close on 7 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks3-4-1.27 units · -18% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.4 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 8 posted picks

Open3calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks3-443%-1.27 units7 games

Closing line value: +0.4 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 7. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty3-350%-0.23 units6 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty16-2341%-8.37 units39 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 12 of 22. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

2-5 · -3.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	3-4	42.9%	-1.3 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	3-3	50.0%	-0.2 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	16-23	41.0%	-8.4 u
Not Nasty	168 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 16:39.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 93 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	8.54	74
FPI	10.17	130
The market	10.18	184
SP+	10.29	130
Sagarin	11.78	174

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.11	76
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.03	74
SP+	1.00	0.50	0.01	76
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.08	93

The line archive, 184 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 90 times, against it 65, and sat still 29. Our side taken at the open finished 0.55 points better than the close on average over 174 games. The close misses the final by 10.09, the open by 10.43, our raw ratings number by 12.25, Pinnacle's close by 10.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.53, MyBookie.ag 10.02, Pinnacle 10.03.

The Cut tracker. 3 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 0-1, -1.00 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	12.00	33
nfelo	12.34	33
Sagarin	12.45	33
FPI	13.79	18
Massey	13.93	16

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.03	16
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.07	16
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.09	16
nfelo	1.00	1.50	0.01	16

The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.

The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
ratings 0%	180	10.57	10.57	1-0
ratings 5%	180	10.48	10.57	1-0
ratings 15%	180	10.30	10.57	1-0
ratings 45%	180	9.79	10.57	1-0
Sagarin half a vote	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
Sagarin no vote	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
FPI a vote and a half	180	10.04	10.57	1-0
Massey a vote and a half	180	10.03	10.57	1-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 15 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.37Sides: pts vs close, 18 bets, beat it 61%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
UConn at Miami (OH)	UConn +5.5	5.5	3.5	+2.0	same side
UNLV at Akron	Akron +13.7	13.7	13.5	+0.2	no call
Utah at Iowa State	Iowa State +12.2	12.2	10	+2.2	no call
Vanderbilt at Auburn	Under	52.7	52.8	-0.1	no call
Virginia Tech at Boston College	Boston College +14	14	14	+0.0	no call
Wake Forest at Louisville	Wake Forest Demon +13.5	13.5	13	+0.5	no call
Wisconsin at Penn State	Penn State Nittany -10.6	-10.6	-9.6	-1.0	no call
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco -9	-9	-9	+0.0	no call
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys	Dallas +3	3	3	+0.0	no call
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts	Indianapolis +3	3	3	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders	Washington +6.5	6.5	7	-0.5	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears	Chicago +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 153 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	95	13.7	26-37 (41%)	15-19 (44%)
Massey	98	13.0	21-28 (43%)	6-16 (27%)
The blend	100	13.1	19-31 (38%)	9-14 (39%)

NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	19	9.9	7-6 (54%)	2-2 (50%)
FPI	17	9.9	5-1 (83%)	5-0 (100%)
The blend	19	8.9	6-1 (86%)	3-0 (100%)

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

22 priced · 2 Nasty Picks · 3 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

19 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 24 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 19 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 41 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.

Since 7:12pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
→ 4.2Missouri State Bears at SMU Mustangstoward Missouri State Bearsagainst the public
→ 0.5Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Auburn Tigersagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.37Points off per game at that weight

10.37The market on its own

127Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 24%, give or take 23% (one standard error, 127 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	104	9.83
SP+	144	10.30
The market	235	10.64
FPI	162	10.70
Sagarin	225	11.88
nfelo	33	12.34

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	107-109	50%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 847609 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	131	1.77
DraftKings	310	1.50
BetOnline.ag	287	1.48
LowVig.ag	279	1.48
FanDuel	328	1.47
BetRivers	317	1.40
MyBookie.ag	219	1.38
Bally Bet	109	1.36
ReBet	103	1.36
betPARX	109	1.35
BetUS	218	1.26
BetMGM	283	1.23
Caesars	251	1.19
Courtside	72	1.18
Fanatics	253	1.17
Bovada	286	1.15
theScore Bet	106	1.13
Hard Rock Bet	108	1.13
TOM	275	1.11
Pinnacle	285	1.08
BetAnything	93	0.96
Fliff	107	0.74
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	31	0.58
Polymarket	23	0.57
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	31	0.52

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
nfelo updated 3 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Sep 26

1. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0  -108
   [College] Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal, 9:30pm
   we make it -130, edge +5%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.