Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Colorado State at UTSAMoved our way · 1 ptColorado State +13.5+105 at TOM+3.1%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:33pm at +13 -110. Now Colorado State +13.5 +105, half a point better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+12.5 open Sunnow +13.5Nasty Number +12Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better.Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 2.1 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGM, a point better, 3 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Colorado State +13.5, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Sacramento State +5. Every system has Sacramento State by 1; the market has Massachusetts by 5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +5.
Rice at Fresno State, Fresno State -13.5. Every system has Fresno State by 15.5; the market has Fresno State by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -12.5.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Tulsa +7 (Tulsa at Arkansas) at 3.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49, down 2.5 since the open.
Since the last build, Rice at Fresno State climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Colorado State at UTSA, Colorado State +13.5. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
3 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Sacramento State): TOM +5 at -113 (4.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (4.3%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Becomes a Nasty Pick at -12.5 for +100 at FanDuel, or -11 for -108 at BetMGM · 1 point away
Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel -13.5 at +100 (2.1%) · BetMGM -13 at -108 (0.8%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars -13 at -109 (0.6%) · TOM -13 at -115 (-0.7%).Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -108 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.Becomes a Nasty Pick at -3 for +100 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel -3.5 at +100 (2.6%) · TOM -3.5 at -104 (1.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM -3.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -3.5 at -107 (0.8%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: UNLV at Akron, Under 53.5. Best number on the board, 1 point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come up 4 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 53.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (0.9%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 56 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 55.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · Caesars 55.5 at -113 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 55.5 at -115 (-0.7%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 49¢ (3.8%) · TOM 49 at -110 (3.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (3.4%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -106 (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 49 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): TOM or BetMGM -129 (2.7%) · Kalshi 55¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings -135 (1.6%) · FanDuel -142 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (1.9%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -112 (1.4%) · Caesars 61.5 at -113 (1.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 61.5 at -115 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 54.5 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 54.5 at -115 (0.4%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM or Caesars 54.5 at -118 (-0.3%) · TOM 55 at -115 (-0.8%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.8%) · DraftKings +7 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.8%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.8%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -122 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (2.2%) · TOM +3 at -115 (1.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Penn State): Caesars -10 at -107 (2.4%) · BetMGM -10 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings -10 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -10 at -115 (0.6%).Points or price: -9.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10 (the games that land on 10); -120 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -107. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (2.3%) · Caesars +3 at -115 (2.2%) · TOM +3 at -116 (2.0%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.6%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.8%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (1.1%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (0.7%) · BetMGM +3 at -102 (0.7%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.5%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.2%) · Caesars 55.5 at -110 (-0.6%).Points or price: 55 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-1.7%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.9%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.2%).Points or price: 43 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 42.5 (the games that land on 43); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM 56.5 at -115 (-0.4%) · Caesars 56.5 at -118 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.1 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +4.5 at +102 (1.1%) · BetMGM or TOM +5 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Caesars +4.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 50¢ (-1.2%).Points or price: +5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4.5 (the games that land on 5); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +102. The price wins.Moved closer since the Fri 25 Sep, 7:51pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Fri 25 Sep, 7:51pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Rice at Fresno State 9:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from -13.0 to -13.5; the price from -110 to +100. - Oklahoma State at West Virginia 6:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Bengals at Steelers tomorrow 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Utah at Iowa State 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Utah -7.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -8.0 to -7.5; the price from -105 to -110. - New Mexico at New Mexico State 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at New Mexico -10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The price from -112 to -107. - Nebraska at Michigan State 4:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Nebraska -5.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -6.0 to -5.5; the price from -108 to -110. - App State at NC State 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at App State +15.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5. - Panthers at Browns tomorrow 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Panthers -1.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to -2.0.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
65 gamesBest: Colorado State +13.5, Nasty PickColorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB 11:00amColorado State +13.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Colorado State +12 · getting 1.5 pts · +105 at TOMNasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Colorado State +13.5 at +105 at TOM. Market says UTSA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -125 | 57.5 -115 | -565 | +395 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 56.5 -118 | -620 | +444 |
All 19 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -125 | 57.5 -115 | -565 | +395 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -114 | 57.5 -121 | -625 | +430 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -112 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -125 | 57.5 -115 | -565 | +425 |
| betPARX | -14 -114 | 57.5 -121 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 57.5 -121 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -565 | +435 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 57 -115 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 79.5 -632 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -124 | 57.5 -105 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -14.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -650 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -118 | 57.5 -114 | -565 | +425 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -109 | 56.5 -118 | -620 | +444 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 57 -116 | -625 | +430 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -269 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -222 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -388 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -400 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -541 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +13.5 | +105 | -108 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +470 | +407 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus; total 57.5 here against 57.0 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB 9:30pmNevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 2.1 ptsBet it · now Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGM, a point better, 3 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Nevada's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.1 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.1 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.1 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -113 | 51 -105 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -105 | 50 -114 | +191 | -228 |
All 20 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -113 | 51 -105 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -114 | 50.5 -108 | +215 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -113 | 51 -105 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -114 | 50.5 -108 | +215 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -114 | 50.5 -108 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +6 -115 | 51 -105 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +6 -113 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -464 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -104 | 50.5 -112 | +190 | -235 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +190 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -109 | 51 -103 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +194 | -244 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -105 | 50 -114 | +191 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +216 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Nevada +6.5 while Pinnacle is at Air Force by 5.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +180 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +121 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +195 | +178 | +2.0% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +6.0 | -108 | -114 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.3 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +216 consensus.
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB 6:30pmTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMDon't chase · now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called at +9.5 -108Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -101 | 52 -105 | -339 | +271 |
All 21 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -345 | +255 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 52 -105 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -8 -107 | 51.5 -120 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -586 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -345 | +275 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -320 | +255 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -125 | -355 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -106 | 52 -108 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -101 | 52 -105 | -339 | +271 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 2.9 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -194 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -104 |
| Market (19 books) | -8.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +270 | +254 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB 8:00pmSacramento State +5should be Sacramento State +3 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Sacramento State +5.0: FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 4.7% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48.5 -107 | +166 | -195 |
All 18 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Bally Bet | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -595 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +158 | -192 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -125 | 48.5 -115 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48.5 -107 | +166 | -195 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +5.0 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +395 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -170 |
| Market (17 books) | +5.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +5.0 | -113 | -137 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +160 | +136 | +3.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus.
FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB 9:00pmFresno State -13.5should be Fresno State -14 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Fresno State -13.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.1% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -103 | 44.5 -103 | -539 | +398 |
All 19 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +420 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -520 | +395 |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +420 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 44 -115 | -550 | +390 |
| Caesars | -13 -109 | 44 -110 | -530 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -2356 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | -535 | +400 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -580 | +420 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -125 | 43.5 -125 | -575 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -111 | 44.5 -103 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -589 | +409 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -103 | 44.5 -103 | -539 | +398 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State -13.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty.
A play at -12.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -616 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -511 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -555 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.5 | +100 | -109 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -525 | -484 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3.5should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Georgia Tech -3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 48 -116 | +142 | -165 |
All 20 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | +142 | -172 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +145 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | +151 | -172 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +145 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -114 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 49 -115 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | +145 | -173 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -798 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 48.5 -106 | +132 | -160 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | +140 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -112 | 49 -114 | +151 | -172 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +150 | -186 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 48 -116 | +142 | -165 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech to win · -160 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -3.0.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +284 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +185 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +302 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -160 | -179 | +2.6% |
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 | -104 | -111 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.2 consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB 7:00pmTulsa +7should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +9.5A Little Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulsa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -108 | 51 -104 | -272 | +224 |
All 20 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50.5 -113 | -265 | +215 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -335 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -285 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -300 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +109 | 50.5 -114 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -108 | 51 -104 | -272 | +224 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -125 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.1 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -144 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0 | -105 | -122 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +225 | +200 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Sagarin and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB 4:00pmPenn State -10should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Caesars · was -11.5A Little Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. At -107 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 44 -115 | -385 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -109 | 44 -106 | -403 | +314 |
All 21 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 44 -115 | -385 | +295 |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 44 -115 | -385 | +306 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44 -109 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +308 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -107 | 43.5 -117 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -369 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -10 -115 | 44 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 43.5 -125 | -415 | +305 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 44 -114 | -385 | +306 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -434 | +327 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -109 | 44 -106 | -403 | +314 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 43.5 -116 | -461 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State -10.0 · -107 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -585 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -562 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -326 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -552 |
| Market (20 books) | -10.0 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0 | -107 | -118 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -385 | -400 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-19 20:37; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB 6:30pmTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Troy's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -112 | -145 | +126 |
All 19 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -113 | 47.5 -106 | -155 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -147 | +127 |
| betPARX | -3 -113 | 47.5 -106 | -155 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -113 | 46.5 -122 | -155 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 47 -112 | -150 | +126 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1535 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -105 | -152 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 47.5 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -101 | 47 -108 | -147 | +127 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -153 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -112 | -145 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -153 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -180 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +3.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +122 | +115 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 6.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB 2:00pmHawai'i to winMoved our way · 2 ptsour data says 59 in 100 · -129A Little Nasty · Hawai'iBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Hawai'i. Market says Hawai'i by 2, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3. At -129 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 44 -104 | +112 | -128 |
All 20 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 43.5 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| betPARX | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -129 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +108 | -128 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -898 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 43.5 -114 | +118 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -120 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 43.5 -105 | +109 | -129 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +111 | -136 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 44 -104 | +112 | -128 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 43.5 -116 | +111 | -136 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -129 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +306 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +115 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -129 | -144 | +2.7% |
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.0 | -112 | -125 | +2.6% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB 6:00pmJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -9A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Jacksonville State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -736 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -215 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -405 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -254 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -286 | -278 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB 2:30pmUConn +3.5should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -117 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 51 -118 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 52 -105 | -170 | +146 |
All 20 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 51 -118 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -118 | -177 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 51.5 -112 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -103 | 51.5 -115 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -118 | -177 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -118 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 52 -105 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -493 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 51.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -114 | -170 | +140 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -120 | -180 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +101 | 51.5 -114 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -174 | +141 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 52 -105 | -170 | +146 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 52 -114 | -174 | +141 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -117 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -146 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +140 | +134 | +1.2% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.5 | -117 | -120 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -118 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.3.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.8 consensus.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB 6:00pmOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -112 | +191 | -228 |
All 19 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -112 | 55.5 -113 | +210 | -275 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 55.5 -102 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -115 | 55 -112 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -112 | 55.5 -113 | +210 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -112 | 55.5 -113 | +210 | -275 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -1467 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -114 | 55.5 -105 | +184 | -225 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | +190 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +180 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -111 | 55 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +189 | -238 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -112 | +191 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +216 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +173 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +145 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +103 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +192 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +195 | +194 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -112 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 10:18; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +216 consensus.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB 11:00amUnder 53.5Moved our way · 4 ptsshould be 52 · getting 1.5 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 14 to UNLV by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 4 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | +405 | -551 |
All 20 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +12.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13 -108 | 53.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +403 | -530 |
| betPARX | +12.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +410 | -530 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -361 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | +395 | -565 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | +403 | -530 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | +405 | -551 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | +400 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Akron). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +397 here against +495 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.5 | +553 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +328 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +116 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +457 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +397 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +13.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +426 | +427 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Akron Zips since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus; moneyline +397 here against +495 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB 11:00amOver 55Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 56 · getting 1 pt · was 56.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 5 to Texas by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 55 -115 | +173 | -213 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -114 | 55 -107 | +172 | -202 |
All 22 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 55 -115 | +173 | -213 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -112 | 55 -109 | +160 | -205 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +175 | -205 |
| BetMGM | +5 -108 | 54.5 -118 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 55 -115 | +201 | -241 |
| betPARX | +5 -112 | 55 -109 | +160 | -205 |
| BetRivers | +5 -113 | 55 -110 | +160 | -205 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 55 -115 | +175 | -205 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 55 -105 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -118 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -789 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -112 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 55 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | +162 | -196 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -120 | 54.5 -125 | +165 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 55 -114 | +182 | -213 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +170 | -212 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -114 | 55 -107 | +172 | -202 |
| ReBet | +5 -114 | 55 -111 | +170 | -212 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +270 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +114 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +119 |
| Market (20 books) | +5.5 | +181 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +5.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +173 | +177 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB 12:30pmUnder 56.5should be 55.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 56.5. 17 mph wind and 54% chance of rain, worth about 3.4 off the total. The market's total is 56.5; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says UCLA by 1.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UCLA by 2.5 to UCLA by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -103 | 56 -111 | +102 | -117 |
All 21 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | +104 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | +104 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -112 | 56.5 -113 | +102 | -127 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 56 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -108 | 56.5 -102 | +101 | -120 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -265 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -106 | 56.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 56.5 -103 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -102 | -120 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -103 | 56 -111 | +102 | -117 |
| ReBet | +1 -111 | 56.5 -114 | -102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -115 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, weather, now A Little Nasty · Under.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -107 |
| FPI | -0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -110 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (19 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +1.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +100 | +103 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 4.7.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB 3:15pmUnder 56Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 54.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 53A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 56.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 8.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -113 | 56 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -110 | 55 -113 | -363 | +287 |
All 21 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -113 | 56 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +285 |
| BetAnything | -10 -105 | 56 -110 | -365 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -113 | 56 +100 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 55.5 -109 | -385 | +280 |
| BetUS | -10 -105 | 56 +100 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -107 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 75.5 -943 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +295 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -125 | 55.5 -115 | -375 | +280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -115 | 56 +102 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -110 | 55 -113 | -363 | +287 |
| ReBet | -10 -111 | 55.5 -114 | -370 | +285 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -172 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -307 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -156 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +295 | +303 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB 5:30pmOver 49Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 51.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -103 | 49 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -109 | 49 -114 | +320 | -412 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -103 | 49 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +310 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -115 | 49 -115 | +324 | -410 |
| betPARX | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 49 -115 | +325 | -410 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +315 | -420 |
| Courtside | — | 40.5 +242 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 49.5 -106 | +300 | -385 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -125 | 49.5 -115 | +315 | -430 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -111 | 49 -114 | +324 | -410 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +311 | -421 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -109 | 49 -114 | +320 | -412 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 49 -114 | +320 | -429 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Charlotte).
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +324 here against +379 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +14.5 | +533 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +260 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +278 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +324 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 56.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +9.5 | -103 | -100 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +310 | +312 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus; moneyline +324 here against +379 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB 6:00pmUnder 61.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 59.8 · getting 1.7 pts · was 57.5▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 61.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -105 | 61 -110 | -123 | +107 |
All 20 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 60 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -126 | +106 |
| betPARX | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 60.5 -113 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2 -109 | 61.5 -107 | -121 | +103 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -604 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | -126 | +105 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 61.5 -108 | -126 | +106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -105 | 61 -110 | -123 | +107 |
| ReBet | -2 -114 | 61 -111 | -129 | +106 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 4.4 toward West Virginia).
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +128 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -122 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -195 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -2.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -121 | -117 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.5.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB 11:00amBall State +3should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ball State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -157 | +132 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 51 -107 | -157 | +135 |
All 19 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -157 | +132 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -159 | +130 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 51 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 50.5 -115 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -157 | +137 |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -159 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -162 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 51 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1138 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 51.5 -102 | -152 | +126 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 50.5 -125 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -120 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -157 | +137 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -157 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 51 -107 | -157 | +135 |
| ReBet | -3 -114 | 51 -114 | -157 | +128 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.0 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Ball State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -191 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +132 | +120 | +2.3% |
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +3.0 | -108 | -117 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ball State Cardinals since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB 2:30pmUCF +3should be UCF +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +132 | -157 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +134 41¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -107 | 48.5 -102 | +131 | -151 |
All 21 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +132 | -157 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +134 41¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 48 -115 | +137 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 46.5 -130 | +137 | -157 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 48.5 -114 | +130 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 69.5 -1963 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 48.5 -115 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 46.5 -130 | +137 | -157 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -107 | 48.5 -102 | +131 | -151 |
| ReBet | +3 -114 | 48 -116 | +130 | -160 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +161 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -159 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +139 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.0 | -106 | -113 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +132 | +124 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -130 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.3 consensus.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB 5:00pmJames Madison to winour data says 69 in 100 · -215Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 6, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 6.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 4.5 to James Madison by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -108 | 44 -105 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 44.5 -106 | +189 | -224 |
All 20 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -108 | 44 -105 | +175 | -215 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 43.5 -112 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -108 | 44 -105 | +183 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +6 -105 | 44 -105 | +183 | -215 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 44 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | +6 -106 | 56.5 -641 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -108 | 43.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +190 | -235 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +180 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +200 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -104 | 44 -103 | +183 | -215 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 44 -110 | +193 | -244 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 44.5 -106 | +189 | -224 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -114 | 43.5 -120 | +204 | -260 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 44.5 +100 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison to win · -215 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 64°F, 24% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +6.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +299 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +182 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +295 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -215 | -225 | +1.0% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -6.0 | -112 | -111 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 7.2.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.3 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB 10:00pmMinnesota +10should be Minnesota +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 10, the Nasty Number says Washington by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Minnesota's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -390 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -114 | 46 -105 | -401 | +313 |
All 20 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -390 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | -530 | +350 |
| BetAnything | -10 -115 | 46 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10 -112 | 46.5 -108 | -400 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | -530 | +350 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 45.5 -113 | -560 | +350 |
| BetUS | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -390 | +312 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 46 -105 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -115 | 46.5 -107 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -770 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10 -115 | 46.5 -108 | -410 | +320 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -118 | 45.5 -115 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -435 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 46.5 -108 | -390 | +310 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -441 | +328 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -114 | 46 -105 | -401 | +313 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +10.0 · -105 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 56°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -308 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -373 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.0 | -105 | -107 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +320 | +315 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB 11:00amBaylor -10should be Baylor -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 10, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 8.5 to Baylor by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -102 | 55 -110 | -377 | +287 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +292 |
All 21 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -102 | 55 -110 | -377 | +287 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -106 | 56 -108 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -102 | 55 -110 | -377 | +301 |
| betPARX | -10 -106 | 56 -108 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -10 -108 | 56 -109 | -420 | +295 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -107 | -380 | +290 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -306 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -360 | +280 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -125 | 55.5 -115 | -390 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 +103 | 55 -108 | -377 | +301 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -374 | +286 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -370 | +292 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 55.5 -111 | -360 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -348 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -379 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -392 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -290 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -361 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes +9.5 | -105 | +105 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes ML | +287 | +330 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus; total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB 11:00amVirginia Tech -14should be Virginia Tech -14.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 54 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 47 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -104 | 47 -101 | +449 | -629 |
All 21 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -105 | 47 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -114 | 46.5 -112 | +410 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| BetMGM | +14 -108 | 46.5 -112 | +475 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +14 -114 | 46.5 -112 | +410 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +14 -115 | 46.5 -113 | +410 | -590 |
| BetUS | +14 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +485 | -670 |
| Bovada | +14 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +14 -109 | 46.5 -117 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -898 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +14 -108 | 46.5 -118 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 +100 | 47.5 -102 | +500 | -720 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -125 | +455 | -675 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 47 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +480 | -725 |
| Pinnacle | +14 -104 | 47 -101 | +449 | -629 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -116 | 46.5 -116 | +500 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 24 mph wind, 58°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.9 for it.
TOM: moneyline +449 here against +570 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +546 |
| FPI | +15.0 | +550 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +381 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +198 |
| Market (19 books) | +14.0 | +449 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -14.5 | +101 | +103 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -600 | -512 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.0.
TOM: moneyline +449 here against +570 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh PanthersBucknell at PittsburghCFB 11:00amBucknell +52.5should be Bucknell +51.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Pittsburgh by 52.5.
The spread
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -130 | 64.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -126 54¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53.5 -112 | 63 -117 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -130 | 64.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -126 54¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -51.5 -136 | 62.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52.5 -130 | 64.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -51.5 -136 | 62.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51.5 -136 | 62.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -53.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 83.5 -2879 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -53.5 -118 | 63.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -54.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -54.5 -115 | 63.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -54.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -52.5 -130 | 64.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53.5 -112 | 63 -117 | — | — |
| ReBet | -54.5 -110 | 63.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -54.5 -105 | 63.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -49.5, now -53.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Pittsburgh).
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -53.4 consensus.
TOM: total 64.5 here against 63.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| Sagarin | -48.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Bucknell and Pittsburgh on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -52.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bucknell Bison +52.5 | +110 | -120 | +6.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.7.
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -53.4 consensus; total 64.5 here against 63.2 consensus.
The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB 11:00amIllinois +26should be Illinois +24.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 26.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Ohio State by 27 to Ohio State by 26. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26 -110 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27 +101 | 54 -116 | — | +1595 |
All 21 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26 -110 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -27.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1700 |
| BetAnything | -25.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -26 -108 | 54.5 -112 | — | +1900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -25.5 -110 | 55 -108 | — | +1550 |
| betPARX | -27.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1700 |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1600 |
| BetUS | -25.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -26.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Caesars | -25.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -880 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -26.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | — | +1600 |
| Fanatics | -26.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| Fliff | -26.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -26.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -3000 | +1100 |
| LowVig.ag | -25.5 -106 | 55 -106 | — | +1550 |
| MyBookie.ag | -26 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1290 |
| Pinnacle | -27 +101 | 54 -116 | — | +1595 |
| ReBet | -26.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | -3030 | +1125 |
| theScore Bet | -25.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
TOM: spread -26.0 here against -26.7 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1650 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -925 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -890 |
| Market (20 books) | -26.0 | -3391 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +26.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1600 | +1624 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -112 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -26.0 here against -26.7 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
The line is -26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB 11:00amLouisville -13should be Louisville -12.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 13.5 to Louisville by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -120 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -103 | -520 | +386 |
All 22 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 57 -120 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -590 | +420 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -115 | 57 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57 -120 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -590 | +420 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 57 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -115 | 57 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -113 | 57.5 -106 | -530 | +390 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -825 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -115 | 57.5 -108 | -535 | +400 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | -565 | +395 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 57 -119 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -526 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -103 | -520 | +386 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 57 -114 | -526 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -105 | 57.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Wake Forest).
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.6 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -404 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -394 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -421 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -401 |
| Market (20 books) | -13.0 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +13.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +400 | +414 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -120 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.6 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB 11:00amUnder 56.5should be 54.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -116 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -110 | 56 -106 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -116 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -116 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 78.5 -1768 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| Fliff | -34.5 -115 | 55.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -112 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -110 | 56 -106 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35 -116 | 56 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 +100 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.5 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -37.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2147 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -31.5 | -4599 |
| Market (18 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +34.5 | -105 | -111 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +4000 | +6299 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -112 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.5 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB 11:00amToledo -3should be Toledo -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 2.5 to Toledo by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 49 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +102 | 51.5 -103 | -138 | +120 |
All 19 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 51.5 -113 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 51.5 +100 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 51.5 -113 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 51.5 -113 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -230 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 51.5 -105 | -146 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 50.5 -130 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +101 | 51 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -147 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +102 | 51.5 -103 | -138 | +120 |
| ReBet | -3 -105 | 51.5 -111 | -147 | +120 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.4 toward Toledo).
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -165 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -182 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -3.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -150 | -143 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus; moneyline -144 here against -132 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB 11:45amKentucky -20.5should be Kentucky -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 56 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -118 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 -101 | -1426 | +825 |
All 20 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -118 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1074 8¢ |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -118 | 54 -110 | -1500 | +865 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -118 | 54 -110 | -1500 | +874 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -114 | 54 -113 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -1500 | +850 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -115 | 54 -110 | -1500 | +775 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -120 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -1600 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1800 | +920 |
| Fliff | -20.5 -120 | 53.5 -125 | -1810 | +875 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -114 | 54 -108 | -1500 | +874 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -1683 | +823 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 -101 | -1426 | +825 |
| ReBet | -21 -111 | 54 -114 | -1408 | +750 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -741 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1903 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -690 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1279 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -102 | -102 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +1074 | +916 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan EaglesLindenwood at Eastern MichiganCFB 12:00pmLindenwood +25.5should be Lindenwood +22.5 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Eastern Michigan by 25.5.
The spread
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -107 | 51.5 -104 | — | +1121 |
All 16 books
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25.5 -110 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Bally Bet | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -25.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -25.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | +1200 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -474 | -2122 | +1290 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -2400 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Fliff | -26.5 -120 | 50.5 -120 | — | +1480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -25.5 -111 | 50.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -107 | 51.5 -104 | — | +1121 |
| ReBet | -26.5 -114 | 50.5 -118 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -25.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Eastern Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Lindenwood).
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -25.5 here against -25.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -563 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Eastern Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -25.5 | -2698 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +26.5 | -110 | -141 | +6.2% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +1600 | +1296 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -25.5 here against -25.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
The line is -25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB 1:00pmNorthern Illinois +10.5should be Northern Illinois +10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia State by 9.5 to Georgia State by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -101 | 56 -113 | -407 | +317 |
All 19 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Bally Bet | -10 -109 | 55.5 -118 | -480 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -115 | 56 -110 | -415 | +335 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -108 | 56 -115 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -10 -109 | 55.5 -118 | -480 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10 -109 | 56.5 -109 | -480 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 56 -115 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -319 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | -430 | +330 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -430 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -104 | 56 -114 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -402 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -101 | 56 -113 | -407 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -116 | 56.5 -114 | -429 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the Georgia State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Georgia State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -119 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -375 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -191 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +10.5 | -112 | -109 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +330 | +333 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB 1:00pmNotre Dame -27should be Notre Dame -27.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 27.5 to Notre Dame by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 58 +105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Pinnacle | +28 -117 | 57.5 -103 | +1702 | — |
All 22 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 58 +105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -109 | +1700 | — |
| BetAnything | +27 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +27.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +2000 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27 -110 | 58 +105 | +1592 | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -109 | +1700 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -114 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| BetUS | +27 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +28 -120 | 57 -115 | +1300 | — |
| Caesars | +27.5 -104 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -552 | +1878 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | +1700 | — |
| Fanatics | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +2000 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -104 | 57.5 -110 | +2000 | — |
| Fliff | +27.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +1100 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +27 -106 | 58 +106 | +1592 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1355 | — |
| Pinnacle | +28 -117 | 57.5 -103 | +1702 | — |
| ReBet | +28 -119 | 57 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 +100 | 57.5 -105 | +2000 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.7 consensus.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2059 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1995 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +666 |
| Massey | +24.0 | +1499 |
| Market (20 books) | +27.0 | +3780 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -27.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML | -2580 | -2243 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -125 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.7 consensus; total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.
The line is +27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State SeminolesCentral Arkansas at Florida StateCFB 2:00pmCentral Arkansas +45.5should be Central Arkansas +44 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida State by 45.5.
The spread
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Central Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45.5 -110 | 62.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -46.5 -107 | 63 -106 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Central Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45.5 -110 | 62.5 -125 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -45.5 -113 | 62 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -45.5 -115 | 62.5 -125 | — | — |
| betPARX | -45.5 -113 | 62 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -45.5 -114 | 62 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -46.5 -105 | 63 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -45.5 -113 | 63.5 -103 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -45.5 -115 | 63.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -46.5 -115 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -46.5 -110 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -45.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -45.5 -115 | 62.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -46.5 -107 | 63 -106 | — | — |
| ReBet | -45.5 -106 | 61.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -45.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -46.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida State).
TOM: spread -45.5 here against -46.1 consensus.
TOM: total 62.5 here against 62.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| Sagarin | -38.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Central Arkansas and Florida State on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Arkansas Bears +46.5 | -105 | -138 | +6.7% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.3.
TOM: spread -45.5 here against -46.1 consensus; total 62.5 here against 62.8 consensus.
The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB 2:30pmBoise State -7should be Boise State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 50 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +242 | -297 |
All 20 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 50 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +230 | -285 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 50 -115 | +237 | -290 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -108 | 50.5 -120 | +220 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 50 -115 | +240 | -290 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | +230 | -290 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -422 | +236 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -118 | 49.5 -115 | +230 | -285 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +235 | -295 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 49.5 -125 | +225 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -101 | 50 -114 | +237 | -290 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +244 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | +242 | -297 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 50 -114 | +244 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +202 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +293 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boise State Broncos -7.0 | -115 | -107 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Boise State Broncos ML | -290 | -259 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus; total 50.0 here against 49.7 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Buffalo BullsRobert Morris at BuffaloCFB 2:30pmRobert Morris +28.5should be Robert Morris +25 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Buffalo by 28.5.
The spread
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -110 | 47 -106 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -112 51¢ | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -28.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | — | +1999 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -114 | 46.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| Fliff | -28.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -29.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | +2250 |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -115 | 45.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -110 | 47 -106 | — | — |
| ReBet | -29.5 -117 | 46.5 -112 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | — | +2500 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -29.0, now -28.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris).
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -674 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Buffalo on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -28.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 | -110 | -142 | +6.4% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +1999 | +1835 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.7 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue DevilsWilliam & Mary at DukeCFB 2:30pmWilliam & Mary +43.5should be William & Mary +42 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Duke by 43.5.
The spread
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -104 | 62.5 -103 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -105 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -42.5 -125 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -43.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -43.5 -120 | 62.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -104 | 62.5 -103 | — | — |
| ReBet | -43.5 -109 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Duke).
TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| FPI | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates William & Mary and Duke on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | William and Mary Tribe +43.5 | +100 | -116 | +3.7% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-22 09:07.
TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.
The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB 2:30pmFlorida -3.5should be Florida -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida by 3 to Florida by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 59 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 59 -107 | -178 | +152 |
All 21 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 59 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 59 -105 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 59 -112 | -182 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -106 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +143 |
| Courtside | — | 48.5 +256 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 58.5 -114 | -166 | +138 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 | -175 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 +100 | 59 -110 | -181 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -108 | 59 -107 | -178 | +152 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 59 -111 | -181 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.4 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -177 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +171 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 | -112 | -106 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +140 | +151 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-20 08:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering HerdGardner-Webb at MarshallCFB 2:30pmGardner-Webb +24should be Gardner-Webb +20.5 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Marshall by 24.
The spread
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 +100 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -2468 | +932 |
All 16 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 +100 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -1684 94¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -110 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 52 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 52.5 -103 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -1650 | +950 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | +1280 |
| Fliff | -23.5 -120 | 51.5 -120 | -2655 | +1055 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -24.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -2000 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -110 | 51.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -2468 | +932 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -106 | 52.5 -107 | -2273 | +970 |
| theScore Bet | -23.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -26.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Gardner-Webb).
Kalshi thin: Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $101 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 52.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Marshall on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -24.0 | -2013 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +24.0 | -120 | -146 | +4.9% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1280 | +969 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus; total 51.5 here against 52.3 consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB 2:30pmGeorgia -13.5should be Georgia -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 14 to Georgia by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 +105 47¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 +101 | -568 | +415 |
All 22 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 +105 47¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -107 | 44 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -14 -107 | 44 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 44 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -115 | 44 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -548 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | -550 | +410 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 44.5 -102 | -610 | +440 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -615 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -650 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 -103 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -626 | +428 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -106 | 44.5 +101 | -568 | +415 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 44 -114 | -649 | +450 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 +100 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -425 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -381 |
| Market (20 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +13.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +456 | +436 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB 2:30pmMichigan -5.5should be Michigan -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -115 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 38.5 -103 | -218 | +184 |
All 22 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -115 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -112 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -115 | -215 | +183 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -112 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -113 | 38.5 -112 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 38 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -107 | 38.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -734 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -108 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +172 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -225 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -250 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -104 | 38.5 -114 | -215 | +183 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -226 | +181 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 38.5 -103 | -218 | +184 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | 38.5 -114 | -248 | +196 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -210 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Michigan).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -186 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -220 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (20 books) | -5.5 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 | -112 | -103 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +175 | +187 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan Wolverines since 09-20 10:18; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB 2:30pmUtah -7.5should be Utah -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 8. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +250 | -325 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 48 +100 | +272 | -339 |
All 20 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +250 | -325 |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 48 -109 | +260 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +263 | -325 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 48 -109 | +260 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +8 -114 | 48 -110 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +265 | -325 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -907 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -115 | 47.5 -114 | +260 | -330 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -120 | +260 | -345 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +260 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +265 | -350 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -111 | 48 +100 | +272 | -339 |
| ReBet | +8 -114 | 47.5 -114 | +265 | -350 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 62°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 4.2 toward Iowa State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +261 here against +309 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +307 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +332 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +161 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +195 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.5 | +261 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -7.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -325 | -294 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; moneyline +261 here against +309 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB 2:30pmNew Mexico -11.5should be New Mexico -12 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 11.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 12. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -113 | 48 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +362 | -479 |
All 19 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -113 | 48 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -113 | 48 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -113 | 48 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -108 | 54.5 -227 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +365 | -490 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +355 | -500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -109 | 48 -103 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +370 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +362 | -479 |
| ReBet | +12 -114 | 48.5 -111 | +370 | -526 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +360 | -500 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State).
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +438 consensus.
Courtside still has New Mexico State +11.5 while Pinnacle is at New Mexico by 10.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +772 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +551 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +378 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +376 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -11.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -450 | -412 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +438 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB 3:00pmHouston -17should be Houston -17 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 -103 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Pinnacle | +17 -104 | 56.5 -106 | +621 | -960 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 -103 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetAnything | +17 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | +650 | -900 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17 -103 | 56.5 -105 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -109 | +600 | -1115 |
| BetUS | +17 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +650 | -1000 |
| Bovada | +17 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -688 | +652 | -898 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -950 |
| Fanatics | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -950 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +640 | -1050 |
| Fliff | +17.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | +625 | -1045 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +575 | -900 |
| LowVig.ag | +17 -102 | 56.5 -103 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +613 | -1009 |
| Pinnacle | +17 -104 | 56.5 -106 | +621 | -960 |
| ReBet | +18 -114 | 56.5 -114 | +570 | -901 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +550 | -900 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +17.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Georgia Southern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.5 | +589 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +591 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +570 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +531 |
| Market (19 books) | +17.0 | +845 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +17.0 | -103 | -101 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +685 | +638 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB 4:00pmOver 48should be 49.8 · getting 1.8 pts · was 53.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -115 | 48.5 -114 | +635 | -990 |
All 20 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -113 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetAnything | +18 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -108 | 48 -110 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -113 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -113 | 48.5 -118 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetUS | +18 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| Bovada | +18 -110 | 49 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -770 | +706 | -987 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -112 | +675 | -1050 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +640 | -1000 |
| Fliff | +17.5 -115 | 48.5 -120 | +655 | -1125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +700 | -1100 |
| LowVig.ag | +17.5 -104 | 48 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +18 -110 | 49 -110 | +630 | -1099 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -115 | 48.5 -114 | +635 | -990 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -114 | 49 -111 | +670 | -1099 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -1000 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +18.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1187 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1194 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +528 |
| Massey | +18.0 | +730 |
| Market (18 books) | +17.5 | +897 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -17.5 | -112 | -116 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -1050 | -837 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 4.9.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB 4:00pmNebraska -5.5should be Nebraska -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 6.5 to Nebraska by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -102 | 49 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -102 | 49 -108 | +188 | -223 |
All 20 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -102 | 49 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Bally Bet | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -105 | 49 -112 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +6 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -105 | 49 -110 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 49 -112 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -604 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -102 | 49.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -125 | 48.5 -120 | +180 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -101 | 49 -110 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 49 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -102 | 49 -108 | +188 | -223 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -114 | 49 -114 | +198 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Nebraska).
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Michigan State +6.5 while Pinnacle is at Nebraska by 5.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +338 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +282 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -225 | -209 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.5.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB 5:00pmVirginia -20should be Virginia -20 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20 -107 | 52.5 -108 | -1299 | +772 |
All 19 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -20 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -110 | 52 -115 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 52 -115 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | — | 41.5 +303 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -1450 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1600 | +860 |
| Fliff | -19.5 -120 | 52.5 -115 | -1680 | +840 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -106 | 52 -114 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1699 | +852 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -107 | 52.5 -108 | -1299 | +772 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | -1299 | +710 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $80 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -555 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1204 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1304 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.0 | -1174 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -20.0 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -1400 | -910 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas StateCFB 5:00pmIncarnate Word +30.5should be Incarnate Word +27.5 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 30.5.
The spread
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Incarnate Word ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -120 | 64.5 +105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -119 | 65 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Incarnate Word ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30.5 -120 | 64.5 +105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -32 -114 | 65.5 +106 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -30.5 -120 | 64.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -32 -114 | 65.5 +106 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -32 -114 | 65.5 +106 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30.5 -120 | 65 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -30.5 -116 | 64.5 -113 | — | +1999 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -118 | 64.5 -115 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -115 | 65.5 -104 | — | +1600 |
| Fliff | -30.5 -125 | 64.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -30.5 -110 | 65.5 -105 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -30.5 -120 | 64.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -119 | 65 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -30.5 -114 | 65.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -30.5 -115 | 64.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 64.5 here against 65.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -878 |
| Massey | rates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -30.5 | -3795 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals +30.5 | +100 | -139 | +8.1% |
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals ML | +1800 | +2279 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 4.5.
TOM: total 64.5 here against 65.0 consensus.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB 5:30pmUnder 53.5should be 50.9 · getting 2.7 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -115 | 53.5 -111 | — | — |
All 19 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -42 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 48.5 +157 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -114 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fliff | -41.5 -120 | 53.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -41.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41.5 -111 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -115 | 53.5 -111 | — | — |
| ReBet | -42 -114 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -40.5 | — |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -36.5 | — |
| Market (18 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +41.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.5.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB 6:00pmAlabama -12.5should be Alabama -12.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 54 -109 | -523 | +388 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 54 -108 | -590 | +400 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 54 -108 | -590 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 54 -109 | -625 | +400 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -109 | 54 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -108 | 73.5 -1433 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -530 | +390 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -125 | -555 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 54 -108 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -109 | 54 -109 | -523 | +388 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 54.5 -111 | -549 | +390 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Alabama).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -404 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -500 |
| Market (20 books) | -12.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +400 | +416 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-19 11:37; total has moved up 3.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB 6:00pmArkansas State -6.5should be Arkansas State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 4 to Arkansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -138 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -228 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +6.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +200 | +207 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western KentuckyCFB 6:00pmMercyhurst +40.5should be Mercyhurst +34.5 · getting 6 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 40.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40.5 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -42.5 -108 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -42.5 -108 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42.5 -108 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -40.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -40.5 -108 | 58.5 -103 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fliff | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40.5 -111 | 58.5 +102 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40.5 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -40.5 -114 | — | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -40.5 -120 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -41.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Western Kentucky).
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -40.5 here against -40.8 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -40.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +40.5 | -110 | -195 | +13.7% |
| Moneyline | Mercyhurst Lakers ML | +4086 | +7255 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: spread -40.5 here against -40.8 consensus; total 58.5 here against 57.7 consensus.
The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB 6:00pmSouthern Miss +18should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18 -104 | 52.5 -110 | -1087 | +680 |
All 19 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | — | 52.5 -110 | -1250 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1313 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1250 | +740 |
| Fliff | -17.5 -125 | 52.5 -115 | -1340 | +735 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1099 | +640 |
| Pinnacle | -18 -104 | 52.5 -110 | -1087 | +680 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 83°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -566 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -546 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -918 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -887 |
| Market (17 books) | -18.0 | -987 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.0 | -105 | -108 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +721 | +681 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB 6:30pmNC State -14should be NC State -14 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 14, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 55 -114 | -602 | +434 |
All 17 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 55.5 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -789 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 55.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -105 | 55.5 -108 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 55 -114 | -602 | +434 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward NC State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -443 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -950 |
| Massey | -16.0 | -574 |
| Market (16 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +14.0 | -112 | -103 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +470 | +469 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB 6:30pmArizona -10should be Arizona -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +305 | -415 |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +346 | -454 |
All 19 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +305 | -415 |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -420 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +333 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +327 | -415 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -420 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -113 | 47.5 -114 | +310 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +330 | -415 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +340 | -460 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +320 | -420 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -431 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | +330 | -430 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +325 | -440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -101 | 48.5 -103 | +327 | -415 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +319 | -440 |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 48.5 -104 | +346 | -454 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +12.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Washington State).
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +435 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +370 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +231 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +189 |
| Market (18 books) | +10.0 | +319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -10.0 | -115 | -105 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -415 | -354 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North TexasCFB 6:30pmHouston Christian +39.5should be Houston Christian +35 · getting 4.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.5.
The spread
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -118 | 60 -107 | — | — |
All 15 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -40 -115 | 59.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| betPARX | -40 -115 | 59.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -40 -115 | 59.5 -103 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -120 | 60 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 -108 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| Fliff | -39.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -39.5 -120 | 59.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -118 | 60 -107 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -39.5 here against -38.2 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| Sagarin | -30.0 | -3415 |
| Massey | rates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales | |
| Market (13 books) | -39.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Baptist Huskies +39.5 | +100 | -171 | +13.1% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -39.5 here against -38.2 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB 6:30pmOregon -3should be Oregon -3 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon by 2.5 to Oregon by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -102 | 62 -110 | +133 | -163 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 62 -104 | +147 | -171 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -102 | 62 -110 | +133 | -163 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 61.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 62 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -108 | +150 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -102 | 62 -110 | +143 | -163 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 61.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -177 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 62 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -117 | 61.5 -114 | +145 | -175 |
| Courtside | — | 82.5 -943 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -114 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -115 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 62 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +142 | -175 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 62 -104 | +147 | -171 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Oregon). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +139 here against +159 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +131 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +167 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 64.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -3.0 | -118 | -102 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -163 | -142 | -3.3% |
| Total | Over 62.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-20 08:31; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; moneyline +139 here against +159 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB 6:45pmMississippi State -5.5should be Mississippi State -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Mississippi State by 3.5 to Mississippi State by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 58.5 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 +102 | 58 -118 | -223 | +188 |
All 21 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 58.5 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -107 | 58.5 -110 | -205 | +177 |
| betPARX | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -109 | 58.5 -112 | -235 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -6 -112 | 58.5 -115 | -230 | +189 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -308 | -225 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -230 | +190 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -118 | 58.5 -118 | -220 | +180 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 58.5 -120 | -230 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -230 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -103 | 58.5 -108 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -232 | +185 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 +102 | 58 -118 | -223 | +188 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Mississippi State).
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.2 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Mississippi State -5.5 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 6.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +103 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -198 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs -5.5 | -107 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Mississippi State Bulldogs ML | -205 | -194 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.2 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB 7:00pmFlorida Atlantic -11should be Florida Atlantic -11 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -114 | 58 -111 | +370 | -493 |
All 19 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +360 | -530 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +365 | -475 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +360 | -530 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +360 | -530 |
| BetUS | +11 -105 | 58 -115 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +360 | -500 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 +105 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | +370 | -485 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -106 | 57.5 -115 | +365 | -490 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -115 | 57.5 -125 | +360 | -500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +11 -101 | 58 -114 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12 -110 | 58 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -114 | 58 -111 | +370 | -493 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | +340 | -450 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward UL Monroe).
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +440 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Florida Atlantic -10.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida Atlantic by 12.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +781 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +340 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +262 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.0 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida Atlantic Owls -11.0 | -115 | -102 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Florida Atlantic Owls ML | -450 | -386 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.0 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +440 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB 8:00pmMissouri State +33should be Missouri State +32 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from SMU by 34.5 to SMU by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -106 | 60 -105 | — | — |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -33 -110 | 59.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 60 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -33 -110 | 59.5 -118 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -33 -110 | 59.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -112 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33.5 -110 | 60 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -33.5 -114 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -641 | — | +2889 |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -33.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -33.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -33.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2250 |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -101 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -34 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +1650 |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -106 | 60 -105 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -32.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Missouri State).
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -4740 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2521 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -27.5 | -2294 |
| Market (19 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +33.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +2889 | +5019 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Missouri State Bears since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -33.0 here against -33.4 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB 8:00pmOregon State -10.5should be Oregon State -11.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +100 | 55.5 -117 | +370 | -493 |
All 19 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -105 | 56 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 56 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -105 | 56 -110 | +350 | -460 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -571 | +350 | -426 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | +340 | -440 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -102 | 56.5 -106 | +350 | -465 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -120 | 55.5 -125 | +345 | -480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -101 | 56 -103 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -469 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +100 | 55.5 -117 | +370 | -493 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +432 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +543 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +472 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +300 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +416 |
| Market (18 books) | +10.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -10.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -450 | -400 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +432 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio BobcatsStonehill at OhioCFB 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -106 | 53.5 -106 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34 -105 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -33.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -33.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -32.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -106 | 53.5 -106 | — | — |
| ReBet | -32.5 -111 | 52.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -33.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Stonehill).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Ohio on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -33.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina PiratesNorth Carolina Central at East CarolinaCFB 3:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -125 | 56.5 -128 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -115 | 56 -117 | — | — |
All 14 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -125 | 56.5 -128 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -36.5 -113 | 56.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -125 | 56.5 -128 | — | — |
| betPARX | -36.5 -113 | 56.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36.5 -113 | 56.5 -104 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -112 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| Fliff | -36.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -125 | 56.5 -128 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -115 | 56 -117 | — | — |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -36.5 (the market moved 4.4 toward East Carolina).
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Massey | rates North Carolina Central and East Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (12 books) | -36.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida InternationalCFB 5:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -120 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -115 | 53.5 -104 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -120 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -107 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -120 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| betPARX | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -107 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -107 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35.5 -115 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -108 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -118 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fliff | -35.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -120 | 52.5 -130 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -115 | 53.5 -104 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -116 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -36.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 23% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Florida International).
TOM: spread -36.5 here against -35.8 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Massey | rates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -36.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.9.
TOM: spread -36.5 here against -35.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.4 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Tomorrow
14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at JaguarsNew England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPatriots +3should be Patriots +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -125 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 45.5 -117 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | — | 50.5 -189 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 46.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -115 | -154 | +130 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 45.5 -115 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +101 | 46 -109 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 +100 | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -120 | -154 | +131 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 85°F.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
ReBet still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Jaguars by 2.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3.0 | -116 | -126 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +130 | +120 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -108 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 43weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 43 +103 | +155 | -177 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +157 | -180 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 43 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -501 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 43 -102 | +157 | -180 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -186 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 43 +103 | +155 | -177 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +153 | -181 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +157 | +152 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | -115 | -116 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 43 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
All 25 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 38 -113 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 38 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 38 -113 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 38 -113 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 38 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 38 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 37.5 -118 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -2806 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -114 | 38.5 -106 | -138 | +118 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 38 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -142 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 38.5 +104 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 37.5 -120 | -139 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 +100 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.3 consensus.
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -197 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 38.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -138 | -142 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.3.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.3 consensus.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBills -7.5should be Bills -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
All 24 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7 -120 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 50 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +274 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +275 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -852 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 50.5 -102 | -345 | +275 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 49.5 -120 | -415 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -340 | +274 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 49.5 -120 | -319 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Bills, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.
BetRivers still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -348 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -217 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -362 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | -101 | -102 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -340 | -323 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-20 18:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmSeahawks -8should be Seahawks -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +292 | -370 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 40 -112 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +9 -125 | 40 -115 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 40 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -108 | 40 -113 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -2043 | +319 | -383 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 -102 | +310 | -395 |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 40 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -105 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -105 | 40 -113 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +295 | -391 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 +100 | 39.5 -108 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -109 | 40.5 -109 | +330 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 62°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.3 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +266 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +258 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +351 |
| Market (22 books) | +8.0 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -370 | -333 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.3 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL tomorrow 3:05pm49ers -9should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -373 | +303 |
All 25 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 48 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -8 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -410 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -137 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -118 | -450 | +350 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -490 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 +101 | 48 -103 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -373 | +303 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 48.5 +104 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -410 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -120 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Also out: Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Polymarket still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -649 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -497 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -356 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.0 | -103 | -103 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -400 | -380 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTexans -1.5should be Texans -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -103 | +111 | -125 |
All 25 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -109 | 43 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| betPARX | +2 -109 | 43 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 43 -109 | +112 | -136 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | +110 | -129 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -834 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -118 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -114 | +110 | -130 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 -109 | +104 | -124 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -129 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -103 | +111 | -125 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 +100 | +113 | -117 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +107 | -126 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Colts).
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +109 here against +118 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +110 | +110 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -112 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.9 consensus; moneyline +109 here against +118 consensus.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPanthers -2should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +115 | -129 |
All 25 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 42 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +122 | -143 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -4027 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +116 | -136 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -103 | 42 -113 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +116 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +115 | -129 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 41.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +118 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
Polymarket still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +135 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +147 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers -2.0 | -112 | -108 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | -140 | -127 | -2.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -110 | -297 | +249 |
All 25 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -106 | 48 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -7 -106 | 48 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 48 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -107 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1450 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -112 | 48 -113 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -300 | +234 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -110 | -297 | +249 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 48.5 +100 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -120 | -295 | +240 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -325 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -351 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -337 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -116 | -115 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -300 | -296 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmChiefs -10.5should be Chiefs -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -132 | 45 -110 | +518 | -711 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11 -113 | 45.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | +476 | -650 |
| betPARX | +11 -113 | 45.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +11 -113 | 45.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +530 | -750 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 45 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -109 | 45.5 -113 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -567 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +10 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +470 | -650 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -115 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -105 | +500 | -700 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +505 | -840 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -102 | +476 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +483 | -728 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -132 | 45 -110 | +518 | -711 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -108 | 44.5 | +525 | -567 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | +450 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Bovada still has Chiefs -10.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +374 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +429 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +384 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +193 |
| Market (22 books) | +10.5 | +634 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 | -107 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -705 | -432 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL tomorrow 3:05pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
All 25 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +105 | -124 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -501 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -107 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +101 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 +100 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Vikings).
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 7 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +120 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +104 | +108 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 53 -114 | +156 | -178 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +157 | -182 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 53.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +159 | -182 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 53.5 -107 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -2201 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 53.5 -108 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -118 | +152 | -180 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -107 | +159 | -182 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +146 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -114 | 53 -114 | +156 | -178 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 53.5 +104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +149 | -177 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
MyBookie.ag still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +119 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +188 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -123 | -105 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -166 | -155 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmSaints -3should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -112 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -2433 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3 -122 | 43.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 43.5 -112 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +107 | 43.5 -113 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -173 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -178 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $364 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.
Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -158 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -177 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -174 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -120 | -116 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -177 | -169 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL tomorrow 7:20pmRams -2should be Rams -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
All 25 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 43.5 -121 53¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 44 -108 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -114 | 44 -112 | +113 | -134 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -6611 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -102 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -115 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -118 | 44.5 -105 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 43.5 -113 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +111 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 43.5 -113 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +113 | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 43.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +144 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -2.0 | -113 | -103 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -126 | -121 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 28
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Bears, Eagles at BearsPhiladelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmBears +4.5should be Bears +4.5 at DraftKings · was +4A Little Nasty · BearsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Bears. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 4.5. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 44 to 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -102 | +192 | -217 |
All 25 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -103 49¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -107 | +189 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -996 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 +102 | 41.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | +194 | -235 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +190 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -112 | 41 -107 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +184 | -232 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -102 | +192 | -217 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -104 | 41.5 +100 | +203 | -213 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +189 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Bears, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears +4.5 · +102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.7 consensus.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +210 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +104 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -118 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears +4.5 | +102 | -102 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +198 | +190 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.7 consensus; total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +210 consensus.
Thu Oct 1
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +3should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 37.5 -113 | +119 | -139 |
| Courtside | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 37.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +119 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 36% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $60 available; Over 37.5, only $73 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $292 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +151 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +121 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -125 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +124 | +121 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 38.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 2
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +6.5should be Pittsburgh +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +6A Little Nasty · Pittsburgh, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Pittsburgh's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -136 56¢ | -229 68¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -136 56¢ | -229 68¢ | — |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 56.5 -105 | -250 | +202 |
| Fliff | — | 56.5 -115 | -240 | +185 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -250 | +199 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Pittsburgh, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5, only $191 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +115 |
| Market (5 books) | -6.0 | -214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +6.5 | -104 | -110 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +202 | +193 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-25 11:56.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -6no betWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Northwestern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Northwestern's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Northwestern's last game | |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | +6.0 | +215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Oct 3
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -3.5should be Alabama -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtside | +3.5 -103 | 59.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -106 | 60.5 -110 | +146 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | +140 | -180 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $20 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +119 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +308 |
| Market (4 books) | +3.5 | +161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -175 | -169 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUnder 52.5should be 50.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 51Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Moved down since the last run: was Waiting, now Waiting for the ratings update.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $0 available; Miami Hurricanes ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Clemson's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Clemson's last game | |
| Massey | +9.0 | +306 |
| Market (2 books) | +17.5 | +892 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 46.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +17.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +637 | +540 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amVanderbilt +23.5should be Vanderbilt +23 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +1074 8¢ |
All 4 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +1074 8¢ |
| Courtside | -23.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -2733 | +1522 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -3200 | +1400 |
| Fliff | -23.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $40 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -976 |
| FPI | -23.0 | -1354 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -756 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -729 |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -2486 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +23.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +1400 | +1320 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amLouisville -7.5should be Louisville -7 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +205 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +320 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +184 |
| Market (2 books) | +7.5 | +288 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 60.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +7.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +247 | +248 | -0.0% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -7.5should be Michigan -7.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -306 74¢ |
All 4 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -306 74¢ |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +240 | -298 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 43.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | +225 | -295 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +243 |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (3 books) | +7.5 | +263 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -7.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -275 | -280 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -20.5should be Notre Dame -20.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -2042 95¢ |
All 4 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -2042 95¢ |
| Courtside | +20.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +953 | -1467 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| Fliff | +20.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +890 | -1880 |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +894 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +869 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +560 |
| Massey | +21.0 | +1071 |
| Market (3 books) | +20.5 | +1394 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +20.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +900 | +922 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -8should be Tennessee -8 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -322 75¢ | — |
All 4 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -322 75¢ | — |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -120 | 58.5 -115 | -320 | +245 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.0 | -374 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -285 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -301 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -311 |
| Market (3 books) | -8.0 | -285 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -8.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -290 | -293 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMissouri +3should be Missouri +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsA Little Nasty · Missouri, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | +118 | -142 |
| Fliff | — | 54.5 -125 | — | — |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers ML, only $64 available; Florida Gators ML, only $71 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +163 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +101 |
| Market (3 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +3.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +130 | +117 | +2.6% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +14should be Iowa +13 · getting 1 pt · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +348 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +469 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +192 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +309 |
| Market (3 books) | +14.0 | +642 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +14.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +500 | +431 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmSouth Carolina -6should be South Carolina -6 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +159 37¢ |
All 3 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +159 37¢ |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Fliff | — | 49.5 -115 | -235 | +180 |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -208 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -163 |
| Market (2 books) | -6.0 | -209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks -6.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | -230 | -203 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmBYU -5.5should be BYU -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -276 72¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +172 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +198 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (1 books) | +5.5 | +182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +5.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +164 | +187 | -3.0% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmUSC -10should be USC -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans ML, only $3 available; Washington Huskies ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.0 | -380 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -403 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -314 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -189 |
| Market (1 books) | -10.0 | -343 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans -10.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | -375 | -354 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty15-2043%-6.28 units35 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 10 of 18. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.09 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 15-20 | 42.9% | -6.3 u | |
| Not Nasty | 140 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 06:33.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 77 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.79 | 60 |
| FPI | 9.87 | 116 |
| SP+ | 10.05 | 116 |
| The market | 10.21 | 168 |
| Sagarin | 11.75 | 158 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 62 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 60 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 62 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 77 |
The line archive, 168 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 80 times, against it 61, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.53 points better than the close on average over 158 games. The close misses the final by 10.11, the open by 10.38, our raw ratings number by 12.29, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.37, MyBookie.ag 9.85, Kalshi 9.86.
The Cut tracker. 1 finished game opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 12.00 | 33 |
| nfelo | 12.34 | 33 |
| Sagarin | 12.45 | 33 |
| FPI | 13.79 | 18 |
| Massey | 13.93 | 16 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 16 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 16 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 16 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 16 |
The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 119 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 67 | 14.6 | 20-30 (40%) | 14-16 (47%) |
| Massey | 70 | 13.6 | 14-19 (42%) | 5-13 (28%) |
| The blend | 72 | 13.8 | 16-26 (38%) | 9-13 (41%) |
NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 19 | 9.9 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 17 | 9.9 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 19 | 8.9 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 15 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 95 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 8 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.
Since Fri 25 Sep, 11:44pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
- → 4.4North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina Piratestoward East Carolina Pirateswith the public
- → 0.6William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue Devilstoward Duke Blue Devilswith the public
- → 0.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokiestoward Virginia Tech Hokieswith the public
- → 0.5Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 20%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 93 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 76 | 9.09 |
| SP+ | 116 | 10.05 |
| FPI | 134 | 10.40 |
| The market | 201 | 10.50 |
| Sagarin | 191 | 11.87 |
| nfelo | 33 | 12.34 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 89-97 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 841099 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.23 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 131 | 1.73 |
| FanDuel | 326 | 1.46 |
| DraftKings | 304 | 1.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 286 | 1.41 |
| LowVig.ag | 278 | 1.41 |
| BetRivers | 315 | 1.39 |
| MyBookie.ag | 218 | 1.35 |
| ReBet | 102 | 1.33 |
| betPARX | 107 | 1.26 |
| Bally Bet | 107 | 1.26 |
| Caesars | 238 | 1.22 |
| BetUS | 218 | 1.20 |
| BetMGM | 271 | 1.19 |
| Fanatics | 253 | 1.13 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 107 | 1.08 |
| Bovada | 279 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 265 | 1.06 |
| Courtside | 63 | 1.04 |
| theScore Bet | 104 | 1.04 |
| Pinnacle | 282 | 0.98 |
| BetAnything | 93 | 0.81 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.58 |
| Fliff | 98 | 0.53 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 0.52 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.52 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 5 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago