Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsBACK THU
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Colorado State at UTSAMoved our way · 1 ptColorado State +13.5-105 at TOM+4.3%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:33pm at +13 -110. Now Colorado State +13.5 -105, half a point better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+12.5 open Sunnow +13.5Nasty Number +11.5Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Texas A&M +9 · -115 at TOM, half a point worse, 7 cents worse than the +9.5 -108 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Air Force at NevadaNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Still Nevada +5 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Two Nasty Picks and One Nasty Dog on the counter for Saturday: Colorado State +13.5, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M to win. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Sacramento State +4.5. Every system has Sacramento State by 1; the market has Massachusetts by 4.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.5.
Eagles at Bears, Bears +5. Every system has Eagles by 1; the market has Eagles by 4.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Tulsa +7 (Tulsa at Arkansas) at 5.8% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Army at Temple, Over 48.5, down 1.5 since the open.
Since the last build, Eagles at Bears climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Louisiana at Charlotte slipped to A Little Nasty; Chiefs at Dolphins climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Colorado State at UTSA, Colorado State +13.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M to win+296 (24¢) at Kalshi+6.5%Sat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Damn Near Nasty
5 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
5 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Bears): Fanatics +5 at -110 (4.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (4.6%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +4.5 at -107 (4.0%) · TOM +4.5 at -110 (3.4%) · Caesars +4.5 at -113 (2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4 for -110 at BetMGM, or +4.5 for -115 at DraftKings · half a point away
Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM +4 at -110 (4.5%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -104 (4.4%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (4.4%) · TOM +4.5 at -116 (4.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4 (the games that land on 4); -115 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings +3.5 at -105 (3.0%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (2.3%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (1.9%) · Kalshi, Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (1.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -113 (1.2%).NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Dolphins): Kalshi +10.5 at 48¢ (2.5%) · BetMGM +11.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Caesars +11.5 at -109 (1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM +11.5 at -110 (1.6%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -104 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +11.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10.5 (the games that land on 11); -108 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. The price wins by a hair.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +7 for -110 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (Cincinnati): FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +6.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.1%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: UNLV at Akron, Under 52.5. Best number on the board, 1 point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come up 3 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
20 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 52.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 53¢ (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 48.5 at 49¢ (3.8%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 48.5 at -105 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.5%) · Caesars 48.5 at -110 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 52.5 at 47¢ (3.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -105 (3.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars 51.5 at -108 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 51.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 52.5 (the games that land on 52); -105 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Northern Illinois): TOM +10.5 at -110 (3.6%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -112 (3.2%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Kalshi or BetMGM +9.5 at -107 (3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.8%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM +9.5 at -110 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM +7 at -105 (5.8%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (4.8%) · DraftKings or TOM +7 at -110 (4.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (3.4%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 55¢ (3.0%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -122 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Commanders): BetMGM +7 at -105 (4.1%) · Fanatics +7 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings +7 at -112 (2.5%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (2.4%) · Caesars or TOM +7 at -115 (1.8%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +10 at -108 (3.5%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (3.4%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 53¢ (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +10.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10 (the games that land on 10); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Clemson to win): BetMGM -105 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.1%) · FanDuel or Caesars -110 (1.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -112 (1.3%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (1.8%) · TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Ball State): BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (2.1%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (1.5%) · TOM +3 at -102 (1.0%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings +4.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +4.5 at -110 (1.6%) · TOM +5 at -115 (1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.0%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -114 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4.5 (the games that land on 5); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Missouri): Fanatics or TOM +6.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -112 (1.0%) · BetMGM +6 at -108 (0.8%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -104 (0.6%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 52¢ (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (2.5%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -112 (2.1%) · TOM 60 at -110 (1.4%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -106 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Troy): FanDuel +3.5 at -122 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -108 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Minnesota): DraftKings +10 at -112 (2.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +9.5 at -105 (1.8%) · TOM +10 at -116 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.0%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): BetMGM +3 at -108 (0.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 46¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings +3 at -112 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.7%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +3 at -115 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (UL Monroe): TOM +13.5 at -108 (0.5%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM 44.5 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-0.0%) · TOM 44 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 44.5 at 52¢ (-0.6%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 39.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · Caesars 39.5 at -109 (-1.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 39.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.8%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -115 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 40.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 39.5 (the games that land on 40); 55¢ costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Moved closer since the Tue 22 Sep, 9:08am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Tue 22 Sep, 9:08am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Kansas State at Cincinnati Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - Chiefs at Dolphins Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - Eagles at Bears Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.0 to +5.0; the price from -101 to -110; the Nasty Number moved 0.6; the market drifted 1.3 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Hawai'i at Wyoming Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -3.5 to -2.5; the price from +105 to -121. - Oklahoma State at West Virginia Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -1.5 to -1.0; the price from -108 to -115. - Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Patriots at Jaguars Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -108. - Titans at Giants Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -3.0 to +3.0; the price from -110 to -119; the Nasty Number moved 2.3.
And 8 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Tomorrow
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmLiberty to winour data says 56 in 100 · -125Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Liberty by 1 to Liberty by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 50 -110 | +117 | -137 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 51.5 +105 47¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 50 -111 | +120 | -138 |
All 21 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 50 -110 | +117 | -137 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 51.5 +105 47¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -112 | 51 -108 | +110 | -134 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -108 | 50 -110 | +117 | -137 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -112 | 51 -108 | +110 | -134 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 51 -109 | +110 | -136 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 50 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1399 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -105 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +112 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -104 | 50 -108 | +117 | -137 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -138 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 50 -111 | +120 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | +112 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Liberty to win · -125 at Caesars. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 4.1 toward Liberty).
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -105 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Liberty Flames ML | -125 | -129 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Liberty Flames -2.5 | -112 | -107 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.1 toward Liberty Flames since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL tomorrow 7:15pmPackers -5.5should be Packers -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 7 to Packers by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 43 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 43 -111 | -273 | +231 |
All 26 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 43 -105 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -109 | 43.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -265 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 43 -112 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 43 -105 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -109 | 43.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -109 | 43.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -280 | +230 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -265 | +215 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -1882 | -258 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -102 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | -250 | +205 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -295 | +215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 +100 | 43 -102 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -240 | +191 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 43 -111 | -273 | +231 |
| Polymarket | -5.5 +100 | 43.5 +104 | -245 | +233 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -109 | -234 | +194 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 +100 | -250 | +210 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 61°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Falcons).
Also out: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -234 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -260 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -229 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -263 |
| Market (22 books) | -5.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -5.5 | -105 | +104 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -250 | -204 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-17 08:02; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Sep 25
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at CaliforniaClemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson to winour data says 54 in 100 · -105▼A Little Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 1.5. At -105 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -104 | 50.5 -108 | -109 | -105 |
All 21 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -107 50¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Bally Bet | PK -110 | 50.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetAnything | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -1 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -112 | -105 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | PK -110 | 50.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | +0.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -112 | -112 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 50 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -353 | -106 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | -108 | -112 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -106 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -111 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -104 | 50.5 -108 | -109 | -105 |
| ReBet | -0.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | -112 | -113 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson to win · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Clemson.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -0.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread PK here against -0.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +152 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +173 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +196 |
| Market (18 books) | PK | -101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -105 | -118 | +2.8% |
| Spread | Clemson Tigers PK | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward California Golden Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread PK here against -0.5 consensus.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmOver 48.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 50.3 · getting 1.8 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 48 -106 | +132 | -152 |
All 21 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +128 | -157 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -112 | 48 -114 | +125 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | +3 -108 | 46.5 +103 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | +132 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 47.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -106 | 48.5 -103 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +128 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 48 -106 | +132 | -152 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 47.5 -119 | +126 | -161 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -120 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +158 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -105 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +171 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.5 | -120 | -122 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +130 | +132 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -105 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UABCFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pmOver 51.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 53.3 · getting 1.8 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 7, the Nasty Number says Navy by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 10.5 to Navy by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +235 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | +240 28¢ | -276 72¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -109 | 51.5 -105 | +227 | -275 |
All 21 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +235 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | +240 28¢ | -276 72¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -106 | 51.5 -114 | +205 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +225 | -275 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 51.5 -105 | +225 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -106 | 51.5 -114 | +205 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 51.5 -114 | +205 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +225 | -275 |
| Caesars | +7 -107 | 51.5 -108 | +225 | -280 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -466 | +230 | -271 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +225 | -278 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 51.5 -105 | +225 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -106 | 51.5 -103 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 51 -110 | +224 | -285 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -109 | 51.5 -105 | +227 | -275 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 51.5 -109 | +218 | -295 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +7.0 (the market moved 5.2 toward UAB). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.5 | +370 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +159 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +231 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 57.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -7.0 | -105 | +115 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -275 | -208 | -5.8% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Howard Bison at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsHoward at RutgersCFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pmHoward +42.5should be Howard +40.5 · getting 2 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Rutgers by 42.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -42.5 -109 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -42.5 -109 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -42.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -42.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 65°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $391 available; Under 54.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Howard | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Howard | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Howard and Rutgers on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Howard Bison +42.5 | -110 | -129 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Howard Bison ML | +4086 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNorthwestern +21should be Northwestern +20.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 22.5 to Indiana by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -101 | 50 -102 | -1594 | +892 |
All 22 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1429 93¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -107 | 50 -110 | — | +1300 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +975 |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -1600 | +1050 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -1800 | +979 |
| betPARX | -21 -107 | 50 -110 | — | +1300 |
| BetRivers | -21 -108 | 50 -112 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +1000 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +850 |
| Caesars | -21 -109 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +1100 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -861 | -1635 | +1064 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -1800 | +1000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -122 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +1060 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -106 | 49.5 -114 | -1800 | +979 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2549 | +1042 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -101 | 50 -102 | -1594 | +892 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -111 | 49.5 -111 | -1786 | +790 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Northwestern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -946 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -668 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -762 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (19 books) | -21.0 | -1517 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +21.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1242 | +941 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
65 gamesBest: Colorado State +13.5, Nasty PickColorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amColorado State +13.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Colorado State +11.5 · getting 2 pts · -105 at TOMNasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Colorado State +13.5 at -105 at TOM. Market says UTSA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -105 | 58.5 -104 | -555 | +407 |
All 19 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 58.5 -114 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 58 -110 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 58.5 -114 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 58.5 -114 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 58 -115 | -575 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -347 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 57.5 -118 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -550 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 58 -108 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -549 | +390 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -105 | 58.5 -104 | -555 | +407 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -116 | 58.5 -109 | -575 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -213 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -322 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -339 |
| Market (17 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +13.5 | -105 | -125 | +4.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +400 | +334 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.4 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmNevada +5 -105 at TOMBet it · now Nevada +5 · -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Still Nevada +5 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.1 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 50 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 50 -104 | +187 | -222 |
All 19 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 50 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -108 | 50 -108 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -105 | 50 -105 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +5 -108 | 50 -108 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -114 | 50 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 50 -105 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -715 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +185 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -101 | 50 -103 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +186 | -234 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -108 | 50 -104 | +187 | -222 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -5.5, only $59 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +207 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +159 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (16 books) | +5.0 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +189 | +160 | +4.0% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +5.0 | -105 | -116 | +2.4% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +207 consensus.
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTexas A&M to winour data says 32 in 100 to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi · a price bet, they lose more often than notNasty DogBet itBuck's case ›
Take Texas A&M to win at +296 (24¢) at Kalshi. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 52 -110 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -105 | 52 -104 | -354 | +281 |
All 22 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -105 | 52 -110 | -320 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -113 | 52 -108 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -105 | 52 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| betPARX | -8 -113 | 52 -108 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 52 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 52 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -309 | -331 | +277 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -340 | +270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -350 | +275 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 51.5 -120 | -355 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -101 | 52 -108 | -320 | +260 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -105 | 52 -104 | -354 | +281 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -111 | 51.5 -116 | -360 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 3.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -153 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +296 | +215 | +6.5% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +9.0 | -115 | -138 | +4.6% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmSacramento State +4.5should be Sacramento State +2.5 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Sacramento State +4.5: FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 4.2% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -115 | 48.5 -113 | +148 | -173 |
All 18 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -113 | 49 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 49 -105 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +4 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | +153 | -175 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -113 | 49 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 49 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -322 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 48.5 -114 | +155 | -188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4 -115 | 48.5 -113 | +148 | -173 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +4.5 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +152 here against +167 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +330 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -152 |
| Market (16 books) | +4.5 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +155 | +129 | +4.4% |
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +4.5 | -116 | -138 | +4.2% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus; moneyline +152 here against +167 consensus.
FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmCincinnati +6.5should be Cincinnati +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +7▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Cincinnati +6.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -113 | +192 | -228 |
All 19 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +190 | -240 |
| Bally Bet | +7 -118 | 55.5 -110 | +230 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +195 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| betPARX | +7 -118 | 55.5 -110 | +230 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -120 | 55.5 -110 | +230 | -295 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +203 | -240 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -1173 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 55 -108 | +200 | -240 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +193 | -244 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -114 | 55 -113 | +192 | -228 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -114 | 55.5 -109 | +189 | -248 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Cincinnati, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.0 or better. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +199 here against +219 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +153 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +108 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +173 |
| Market (17 books) | +6.5 | +199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +190 | +178 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: moneyline +199 here against +219 consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmTulsa +7should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +9.5A Little Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 7, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulsa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 51 +100 | -276 | +227 |
All 19 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -265 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -265 | +219 |
| betPARX | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -265 | +223 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -780 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -270 | +220 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -300 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -265 | +219 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -107 | 51 +100 | -276 | +227 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.5 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -137 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -286 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -463 |
| Market (16 books) | -7.0 | -254 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0 | -105 | -133 | +5.8% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +230 | +182 | +5.2% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Sagarin and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmCharlotte +10should be Charlotte +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +13.5▼A Little Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 10, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 48.0 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Charlotte is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -108 | 48 -115 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +101 48¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -106 | 48.5 -112 | +325 | -420 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -108 | 48 -115 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +101 48¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -110 | 49 -108 | +325 | -435 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| BetMGM | +10 -108 | 48.5 -115 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -108 | 48 -115 | +324 | -410 |
| betPARX | +10 -110 | 49 -108 | +325 | -435 |
| BetRivers | +10 -112 | 49 -109 | +320 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +325 | -410 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +320 | -430 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -162 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +320 | -410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +320 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -104 | 48 -114 | +324 | -410 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +330 | -441 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -106 | 48.5 -112 | +325 | -420 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -116 | 49.5 -111 | +320 | -450 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +10.0 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Charlotte.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 3.5 toward Charlotte, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +314 here against +383 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +14.5 | +476 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +210 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +217 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +229 |
| Market (17 books) | +10.0 | +314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +10.0 | -108 | -124 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +320 | +263 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -115 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus; moneyline +314 here against +383 consensus.
SP+ is the holdout at Louisiana by 14.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 1:00pmNorthern Illinois +10.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Northern Illinois +9.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +9A Little Nasty · Northern IllinoisBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Northern Illinois. Market says Georgia State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Northern Illinois's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -413 | +320 |
All 19 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -105 | 56 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | — | 55.5 -112 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -641 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -106 | 56 -108 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 56 -110 | -439 | +324 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -413 | +320 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -114 | 55.5 -116 | -429 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Northern Illinois +10.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Northern Illinois, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -126 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -296 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -176 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +10.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +310 | +273 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus; total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
Sagarin is the holdout at Georgia State by 11. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUConn +3.5should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 52 -102 | -170 | +146 |
All 20 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 51.5 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | -180 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -108 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -170 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 51.5 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 52 -102 | -170 | +146 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 51.5 -111 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -115 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -138 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +152 | +134 | +3.1% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.5 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +3.5should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +3.5A Little Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ball State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -118 | 51 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -117 | 51 -111 | -168 | +145 |
All 19 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -118 | 51 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 51 -109 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 50.5 -118 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -118 | 51 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 51 -109 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 51 -110 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 51 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 51 -115 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -328 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -102 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 51.5 -102 | -162 | +134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 50.5 -120 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -114 | 51 -108 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -117 | 51 -111 | -168 | +145 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 50.5 -125 | -170 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -119 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -173 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +107 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +3.5 | -112 | -122 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +135 | +132 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmVanderbilt +9.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Vanderbilt +9 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +8.5A Little Nasty · VanderbiltBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Vanderbilt. Market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Vanderbilt's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 55 -110 | -357 | +283 |
All 20 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -350 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 55 -114 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 55 -114 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +275 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -350 | +280 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -360 | +280 |
| Courtside | — | 74.5 -1068 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -355 | +280 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 +100 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -350 | +280 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -360 | +275 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -108 | 55 -110 | -357 | +283 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 54.5 -125 | -370 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +9.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -152 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -255 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -141 |
| Market (17 books) | -9.5 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +290 | +249 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 4.4.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amTennessee +5should be Tennessee +4 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +4.5A Little Nasty · TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tennessee. Market says Texas by 5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -115 | 56 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5 -112 | 56 -109 | +171 | -201 |
All 22 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -115 | 56 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -108 | 56 -109 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -115 | 56 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| betPARX | +5 -108 | 56 -109 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 56 -110 | +188 | -240 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +175 | -205 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -1032 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -114 | 55.5 -115 | +158 | -192 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -125 | 55.5 -120 | +165 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -111 | 56 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +183 | -231 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -112 | 56 -109 | +171 | -201 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 55.5 -114 | +169 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee +5.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +5.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.5 | +119 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +213 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +126 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +170 | +151 | +2.8% |
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +5.0 | -115 | -122 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmMissouri +6.5should be Missouri +5.5 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +1.5A Little Nasty · MissouriBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Missouri. Market says Mississippi State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 5.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Missouri is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 58.5 | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 58 -114 | -234 | +196 |
All 20 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 58.5 | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -108 | 59 -108 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -108 | 59 -108 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 59 -109 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Courtside | — | 47.5 +281 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -118 | 58.5 -110 | -225 | +184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -250 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 58.5 -114 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -242 | +192 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -104 | 58 -114 | -234 | +196 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +6.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 5.0 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $261 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +108 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -183 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +195 | +179 | +1.9% |
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +6.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt · was +2.5A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Troy's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Troy, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -140 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -160 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +132 | +122 | +2.0% |
| Spread | Troy Trojans +3.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Utah State Aggies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 5.6.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmMinnesota +10should be Minnesota +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5A Little Nasty · MinnesotaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Minnesota. Market says Washington by 10, the Nasty Number says Washington by 9.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Minnesota's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -104 | 46 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 46 -105 | -381 | +300 |
All 19 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -104 | 46 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -112 | 45.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 46.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 46 -110 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -112 | 45.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 45.5 -109 | -420 | +290 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 46 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -276 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 45.5 -112 | -395 | +310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 +100 | 46 -108 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -408 | +303 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 46 -105 | -381 | +300 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +10.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 56°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -255 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -207 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -271 |
| Market (16 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.0 | -116 | -122 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +310 | +268 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmUL Monroe +13.5should be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM▲A Little Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 | — | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 57 -111 | +408 | -556 |
All 18 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 | — | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +410 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | +383 | -500 |
| betPARX | +13 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +410 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13 -110 | 57.5 -112 | +410 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +390 | -500 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 57 -115 | +400 | -575 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -133 | +413 | -515 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | +400 | -535 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +430 | -600 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -104 | 57.5 -108 | +383 | -500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +411 | -594 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -107 | 57 -111 | +408 | -556 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +425 | -650 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +13.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · UL Monroe.
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $125 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $212 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +387 here against +498 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +743 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +211 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +207 |
| Market (16 books) | +13.5 | +387 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +13.5 | -108 | -110 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +430 | +380 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus; moneyline +387 here against +498 consensus.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 52.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 51.5 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 52.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 13. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 51.5 -114 | +415 | -569 |
All 20 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +380 | -530 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13 -112 | 52 -113 | +460 | -670 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +425 | -550 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +403 | -530 |
| betPARX | +13 -112 | 52 -113 | +460 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +13 -113 | 52.5 -115 | +460 | -715 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +410 | -530 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -105 | 52 -110 | +410 | -585 |
| Courtside | — | 48.5 +137 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 52.5 -105 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | +440 | -610 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | +425 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -106 | 52.5 -103 | +403 | -530 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 51.5 -114 | +415 | -569 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 52.5 -111 | +410 | -649 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +425 | -650 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Akron, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +397 here against +519 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.5 | +511 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +276 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +123 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +429 |
| Market (17 books) | +13.5 | +397 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +13.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +440 | +391 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -115 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Akron Zips since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.9 consensus; moneyline +397 here against +519 consensus.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 60should be 58.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 57.5▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 60.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 1, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 60 -110 | -120 | — |
| Pinnacle | -2 -107 | 60 -113 | -125 | +109 |
All 19 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -115 | 60 -110 | -120 | — |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | 59.5 -108 | -124 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 60.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -115 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | 59.5 -108 | -124 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -125 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1 -115 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 60.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -395 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 59.5 -114 | -125 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -111 | 60 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -125 | +103 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -107 | 60 -113 | -125 | +109 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -116 | 60.5 -114 | -128 | +101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under. The line went from -1.5 to -1.0.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -2.0. The market has moved 4.2 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +131 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -180 |
| Market (17 books) | -1.0 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -120 | -122 | +0.5% |
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -1.0 | -115 | -117 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.8 consensus.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmUnder 44weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 44, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Hawai'i is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 44 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 45 -101 | +131 | -152 |
All 20 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -107 | 44 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | +125 | -152 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 44 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -107 | 44 -110 | +135 | -155 |
| betPARX | +3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | +123 | -155 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -669 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 44.5 -110 | +126 | -152 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 44.5 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -103 | 44 -108 | +135 | -155 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +135 | -167 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 45 -101 | +131 | -152 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -111 | +127 | -162 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +179 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +127 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (17 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 39.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -121 | -122 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -155 | -147 | -1.3% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.8 consensus.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmWestern Michigan +7should be Western Michigan +7 at BetMGMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Western Michigan is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +210 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -102 | 49.5 -113 | +237 | -290 |
All 19 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +210 | -260 |
| Bally Bet | +7 -117 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +215 | -260 |
| betPARX | +7 -117 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -117 | 50.5 -113 | +225 | -295 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +218 | -260 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 50 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -242 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +220 | -270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 49.5 -115 | +225 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 49.5 -114 | +215 | -260 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +236 | -300 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -102 | 49.5 -113 | +237 | -290 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 49.5 -119 | +230 | -310 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +105 | 50.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +261 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +211 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +233 |
| Market (17 books) | +7.0 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +7.0 | -105 | -119 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +220 | +202 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +261 consensus.
SP+ and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmIowa +5.5should be Iowa +5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 38.5 -111 | -221 | +186 |
All 22 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -110 | 39 -108 | -225 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -110 | 39 -108 | -225 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 39 -109 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -225 | +185 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -632 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -112 | -218 | +180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 39.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -108 | 39.5 -105 | -220 | +180 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 38.5 -120 | -230 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -220 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 38.5 -108 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -218 | +174 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 38.5 -111 | -221 | +186 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -114 | 38.5 -109 | -222 | +170 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -166 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +181 | +165 | +2.1% |
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.2% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmTCU -3should be TCU -2.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -154 |
All 20 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +132 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +132 | -152 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 48.5 -113 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 48.5 -114 | +130 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -413 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +132 | -152 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +133 | -154 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 48.5 -111 | +128 | -164 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward TCU). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $369 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +143 |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -142 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (17 books) | +3.0 | +133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +136 | +130 | +1.1% |
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.0 | -108 | -108 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOle Miss +3.5should be Ole Miss +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Ole Miss's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 59 +100 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 59 -109 | -149 | +129 |
All 21 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 59 +100 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -155 59¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -106 | 59 -109 | -162 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 58.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 59 +100 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -106 | 59 -109 | -162 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -107 | 59 -110 | -165 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 59 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -934 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 +100 | 58.5 -115 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 60.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 59 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 58.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -120 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +105 | 58.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 59 -109 | -149 | +129 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 58.5 -119 | -161 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 59.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +3.5 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Ole Miss, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Ole Miss Rebels +3.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -156 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -150 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +151 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.5 | -115 | -119 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +130 | +135 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -120 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmKennesaw State +6.5should be Kennesaw State +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +6.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Kennesaw State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -170 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -135 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -201 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +192 | +184 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +6.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUSC +3should be USC +3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but USC is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 62 -115 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 62.5 -103 49¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 62 -112 | +140 | -162 |
All 22 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 62 -115 | +132 | -162 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 62.5 -103 49¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -105 | 62 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 62.5 -105 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +135 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 62 -115 | +142 | -162 |
| betPARX | +3 -105 | 62 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 62 -113 | +128 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 62 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 62.5 -105 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -259 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 62.5 -108 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 63.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +134 | -162 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -135 | 61.5 -125 | +130 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 62.5 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -106 | 62 -114 | +142 | -162 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 62 -110 | +133 | -163 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -103 | 62 -112 | +140 | -162 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 62.5 -111 | +130 | -167 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -120 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 4.9 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +151 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +106 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +132 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +149 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 64.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +140 | +132 | +1.4% |
| Spread | USC Trojans +3.5 | -120 | -121 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 62.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: moneyline +138 here against +151 consensus.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amWake Forest +11.5should be Wake Forest +12.5 · giving up 1 pt at Kalshi · was +13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Wake Forest is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 58.5 | -458 81¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 58 -113 | -515 | +384 |
All 21 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 58.5 | -458 81¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -500 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -500 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 58.5 -113 | -500 | +360 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -108 | 62.5 -283 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -106 | 57.5 -115 | -465 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 58 -113 | -515 | +384 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 58.5 -114 | -526 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest +11.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $414 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -346 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -329 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -377 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -341 |
| Market (18 books) | -12.5 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +11.5 | +101 | -104 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +370 | +360 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-19 21:05.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 44.5 -117 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -116 | 44.5 -115 | -603 | +435 |
All 22 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 44.5 -117 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 44.5 -109 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 44.5 -112 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 44.5 -117 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 44.5 -109 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 45 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -880 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 45 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 44.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -125 | 44.5 -120 | -615 | +425 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -700 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 44.5 -116 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 45 -110 | -725 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -116 | 44.5 -115 | -603 | +435 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 44.5 -119 | -752 | +460 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -383 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -252 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -314 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -112 | -112 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +490 | +407 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -117 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.7 consensus.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBaylor -10should be Baylor -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 10, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 8.5 to Baylor by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -407 | +316 |
All 20 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -360 77¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 55 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -370 | +292 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 55 -113 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 55 -114 | -435 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -907 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -118 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 55.5 -108 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -407 | +316 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 55.5 -111 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 56.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -287 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -327 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -232 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears -10.0 | -110 | +114 | -5.6% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | -375 | -287 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amVirginia Tech -14should be Virginia Tech -14.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 54 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 49 -110 | +405 | -575 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 +101 48¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 -111 | 49 -103 | +439 | -611 |
All 20 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 49 -110 | +405 | -575 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 +101 48¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +450 | -625 |
| BetAnything | +14 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +435 | -575 |
| BetMGM | +14 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +450 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 49 -110 | +431 | -575 |
| betPARX | +14 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +450 | -625 |
| BetRivers | +14 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +420 | -625 |
| BetUS | +14 -115 | 49 -110 | +440 | -575 |
| Bovada | +14 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -2509 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +14 -115 | 48.5 -112 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -122 | 48.5 -106 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -110 | 49 -108 | +431 | -575 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +460 | -676 |
| Pinnacle | +14 -111 | 49 -103 | +439 | -611 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 48.5 -114 | +440 | -699 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -120 | 49.5 -105 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 59°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Boston College).
TOM: moneyline +423 here against +552 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +499 |
| FPI | +15.0 | +505 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +314 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (17 books) | +14.0 | +423 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Tech Hokies -14.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Tech Hokies ML | -575 | -458 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 4.6.
TOM: moneyline +423 here against +552 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh PanthersBucknell at PittsburghCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBucknell +50.5should be Bucknell +50 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Pittsburgh by 50.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Pittsburgh by 49.5 to Pittsburgh by 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 8 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | Bucknell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -51 -120 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -51 -120 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51 -120 | 61.5 -117 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -51.5 -110 | 61.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -49.5 -105 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -49.5 -111 | 60.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -51.5 -110 | 62.5 +100 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -49.5, now -50.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Pittsburgh).
Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $5 available; Under 60.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Bucknell | |
| Sagarin | -48.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Bucknell and Pittsburgh on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -50.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bucknell Bison +51.5 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.9.
The line is -50.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amIllinois +27should be Illinois +26 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -27 -107 | 54 -106 | — | +1643 |
All 20 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -27.5 -107 | 53 -113 | — | +1700 |
| BetAnything | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -27.5 -107 | 53 -113 | — | +1700 |
| BetRivers | -27.5 -109 | 53 -114 | — | +1600 |
| BetUS | -27 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -1535 | — | +1758 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -27.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 5¢ +1329 all-in |
| Fanatics | -27 -110 | 54 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | — | +1600 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -111 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -27.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -27 -107 | 54 -106 | — | +1643 |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -27.5 -105 | 54.5 -105 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1010 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1644 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -957 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -930 |
| Market (18 books) | -27.0 | -3669 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.0 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1671 | +2017 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 55.5should be 54.1 · getting 1.4 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 34.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -105 | 55.5 -104 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 +102 | 55 -109 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -105 | 55.5 -104 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -35 -107 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -105 | 55.5 -104 | — | — |
| betPARX | -35 -107 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35 -108 | 55 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 +100 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -1138 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -101 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 +102 | 55 -109 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -105 | 55.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -116 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -34.8 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -37.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2379 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -31.5 | -4878 |
| Market (17 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +34.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +4500 | +7346 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -116 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -34.8 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amToledo -3should be Toledo -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 2.5 to Toledo by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 49 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52.5 -102 | -145 | +126 |
All 19 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 51.5 -113 | -143 | +117 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 51.5 -113 | -143 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 51.5 -113 | -143 | +116 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 52 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -264 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 52.5 -106 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 52 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -150 | +123 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52.5 -102 | -145 | +126 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 51.5 -119 | -154 | +120 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 51.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.4 toward Toledo).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +107 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -146 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -160 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -3.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -150 | -138 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amKentucky -20.5should be Kentucky -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -108 | -1376 | +805 |
All 20 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +865 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -115 | -1500 | +874 |
| betPARX | -20.5 -113 | 54 -112 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -114 | 54 -113 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +775 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -486 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -103 | 54.5 -114 | -1500 | +874 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1699 | +894 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 54.5 -108 | -1376 | +805 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | -1408 | +700 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1010 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1919 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -652 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.5 | -1257 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -113 | +105 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +900 | +932 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan EaglesLindenwood at Eastern MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 12:00pmLindenwood +26.5should be Lindenwood +24 · getting 2.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Eastern Michigan by 26.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
All 8 books
| Eastern Michigan spread | Total (over) | Eastern Michigan ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| betPARX | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -113 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -26.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
| ReBet | -26.5 -116 | 49.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -26.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
Marked: best for the Eastern Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Lindenwood).
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $52 available; Under 49.5, only $428 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -528 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Eastern Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -26.5 | -4334 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +26.5 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +1949 | +1603 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-22 09:07; total has moved down 0.6.
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 12:30pmMaryland +1.5should be Maryland +1 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 1.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UCLA by 2.5 to UCLA by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 59 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -104 | 57 -105 | +101 | -116 |
All 20 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -113 | 56.5 -113 | +100 | -121 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 57 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -113 | 56.5 -113 | +100 | -121 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | -103 | -122 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -115 | 57 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -162 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -106 | 56.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 57 -103 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +100 | -122 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -104 | 57 -105 | +101 | -116 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | -102 | -125 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -112 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -115 |
| Massey | PK | +101 |
| Market (17 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +1.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +100 | +109 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 5.3.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +109 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 1:00pmNotre Dame -28should be Notre Dame -27.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 28.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 27.5 to Notre Dame by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -113 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Pinnacle | +28 -111 | 57.5 -114 | +1737 | — |
All 21 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +28 -113 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -110 | 58 -113 | +1700 | — |
| BetAnything | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +28 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +2200 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +28 -113 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -110 | 58 -113 | +1700 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -112 | 58 -114 | +1600 | — |
| BetUS | +28 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | +28 -115 | 58 -110 | +1300 | — |
| Courtside | — | 75.5 -2659 | +1878 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -102 | 58.5 -105 | +1700 | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | +27.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 5¢ +1329 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in |
| Fanatics | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | +1800 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -104 | 58.5 -106 | +2000 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | +1200 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +28 -109 | 58 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +28 -110 | 58 -110 | +1422 | — |
| Pinnacle | +28 -111 | 57.5 -114 | +1737 | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -116 | 58.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 +105 | 58.5 -105 | +2000 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2264 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2132 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +639 |
| Massey | +24.0 | +1568 |
| Market (18 books) | +28.0 | +4015 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +28.0 | -113 | +102 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2200 | +2557 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State SeminolesCentral Arkansas at Florida StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmCentral Arkansas +44.5should be Central Arkansas +43 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida State by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida State by 43.5 to Florida State by 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Florida State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| Sagarin | -38.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Central Arkansas and Florida State on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Arkansas Bears +44.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.0.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Robert Morris Colonials at Buffalo BullsRobert Morris at BuffaloCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmRobert Morris +28should be Robert Morris +25 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Buffalo by 28.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
All 8 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -28 -122 | 45.5 +100 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -122 | 45.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -122 | 45.5 -103 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -102 | 44.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -28.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | +2250 |
| ReBet | -28.5 -114 | 44.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -27.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -29.0, now -28.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Robert Morris).
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $449 available; Under 44.5, only $52 available; Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -646 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Buffalo on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -28.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +28.0 | -110 | -131 | +4.2% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +2250 | +1763 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-22 09:07.
The line is -28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue DevilsWilliam & Mary at DukeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmWilliam & Mary +43.5should be William & Mary +42.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Duke by 43.5.
The spread
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | -43.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -109 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -43.5 -111 | 62.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $441 available; Under 61.5, only $391 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| FPI | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates William & Mary and Duke on different scales | |
| Market (6 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | William and Mary Tribe +43.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering HerdGardner-Webb at MarshallCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmGardner-Webb +23should be Gardner-Webb +20 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Marshall by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Marshall by 25.5 to Marshall by 22.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
All 8 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -22.5 -113 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| betPARX | -22.5 -113 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -114 | 51.5 -112 | — | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -23.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -116 | 51.5 -114 | -2273 | +860 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -26.0, now -23.0 (the market moved 3.4 toward Gardner-Webb).
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $52 available; Under 51.5, only $52 available; Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -429 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Marshall on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -23.0 | -2360 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +23.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1200 | +921 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-22 09:07.
The line is -23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUtah -8should be Utah -9 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 8, the Nasty Number says Utah by 9. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -103 | 48 -112 | +270 | -345 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -117 | 49 +100 | +280 | -351 |
All 19 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -103 | 48 -112 | +270 | -345 |
| Bally Bet | +8 -109 | 49 -110 | +270 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 48 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| BetMGM | +8 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +275 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -103 | 48 -112 | +278 | -345 |
| betPARX | +8 -109 | 49 -110 | +270 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +8 -110 | 49 -112 | +265 | -360 |
| BetUS | +8 -105 | 48 -110 | +278 | -345 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -281 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +260 | -350 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +286 | -377 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -117 | 49 +100 | +280 | -351 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -116 | 48.5 -111 | +260 | -360 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 64°F, 43% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +9.0 (the market moved 3.2 toward Iowa State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.8 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +319 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +252 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +278 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +142 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (17 books) | +8.0 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -8.5 | -105 | +117 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -345 | -250 | -6.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +8.8 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +319 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNew Mexico -11.5should be New Mexico -12.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 11.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 12.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +360 | -476 |
All 19 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -734 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +350 | -455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +360 | -480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 48.5 -103 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +380 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48.5 -107 | +360 | -476 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | +370 | -549 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +360 | -500 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward New Mexico State).
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +10.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +436 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +734 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +508 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +311 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +313 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -450 | -378 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +10.9 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +436 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:00pmGeorgia Southern +18.5should be Georgia Southern +18 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +19 -111 | 56.5 -110 | +669 | -1063 |
All 21 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +18.5 -109 | 55.5 -110 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetAnything | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +725 | -1125 |
| BetMGM | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +775 | -1100 |
| BetOnline.ag | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +721 | -1125 |
| betPARX | +18.5 -109 | 55.5 -110 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | +700 | -1430 |
| BetUS | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +715 | -1125 |
| Bovada | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -1100 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -263 | +706 | -987 |
| DraftKings | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +675 | -1050 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +18.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in |
| Fanatics | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| FanDuel | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +760 | -1300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +18.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +18.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | +721 | -1125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +19 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +715 | -1275 |
| Pinnacle | +19 -111 | 56.5 -110 | +669 | -1063 |
| ReBet | +19.5 -116 | 56.5 -114 | +580 | -1099 |
| theScore Bet | +18.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +700 | -1200 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +19.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $25 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +18.5 here against +18.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.5 | +575 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +579 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +542 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +471 |
| Market (18 books) | +18.5 | +955 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +18.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +775 | +689 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: spread +18.5 here against +18.8 consensus.
The line is +18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmOver 48.5should be 49.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +627 | -973 |
All 20 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +750 | -1430 |
| BetAnything | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +750 | -1430 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -113 | 48.5 -113 | +750 | -1430 |
| BetUS | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -706 | +679 | -943 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -112 | +650 | -1000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +17.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 13¢ +566 all-in | 90¢ -1150 all-in |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +760 | -1300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +17.5 -104 | 48.5 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +610 | -1000 |
| Pinnacle | +17.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +627 | -973 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -119 | 48.5 -111 | +610 | -1205 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +700 | -1200 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.4 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1137 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1148 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +467 |
| Massey | +18.0 | +710 |
| Market (17 books) | +17.5 | +898 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -17.5 | -112 | -114 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -1000 | -779 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 5.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmNebraska -5.5should be Nebraska -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 6.5 to Nebraska by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 48.5 -108 | +184 | -218 |
All 19 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -109 | 48.5 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -109 | 48.5 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1156 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -106 | 48.5 -112 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +183 | -215 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +186 | -234 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -104 | 48.5 -108 | +184 | -218 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | 48.5 -116 | +181 | -238 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +203 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +281 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +221 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +132 |
| Market (17 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5 | -110 | +104 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -215 | -184 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +203 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmPenn State -10should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 45 -111 | -389 | +305 |
All 20 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 45 -110 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 45 -110 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 45 -112 | -455 | +325 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 45 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 38.5 +184 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 44.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 45 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 +100 | 44.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 +100 | 44.5 -115 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 44.5 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -441 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -103 | 45 -111 | -389 | +305 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 44.5 -116 | -450 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -568 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -527 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -508 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -370 | -337 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmVirginia -19should be Virginia -20 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +105 47¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -103 | 52.5 -108 | -1279 | +764 |
All 19 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +105 47¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -19 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| Courtside | — | 75.5 -2584 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +800 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -111 | 52.5 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1699 | +825 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -103 | 52.5 -108 | -1279 | +764 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -109 | 52.5 -114 | -1299 | +650 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -19.5 (the market moved 2.4 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -1010 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -515 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1163 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1321 |
| Market (16 books) | -19.0 | -1142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -19.0 | -115 | -115 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -1200 | -916 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.7 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmIncarnate Word +30.5should be Incarnate Word +28.5 · getting 2 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 95°F.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -886 |
| Massey | rates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales | |
| Market (4 books) | -30.5 | -3894 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals +30.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals ML | +1600 | +2903 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 4.0.
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmJames Madison -6should be James Madison -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 6, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 4.5 to James Madison by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -110 | 44.5 -112 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -131 55¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -110 | 45 -108 | +185 | -219 |
All 20 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -110 | 44.5 -112 | +175 | -225 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -131 55¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -108 | 45 -113 | +175 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 45 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 44.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 44.5 -112 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -108 | 45 -113 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 45 -114 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 45 -110 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 45 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 26.5 +897 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 44.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | +184 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -106 | 44.5 -110 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 45 -110 | +181 | -228 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -110 | 45 -108 | +185 | -219 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | +189 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +6.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +205 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +313 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +237 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +162 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +228 |
| Market (17 books) | +6.0 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -6.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -225 | -192 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -112 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 6.5.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.0 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +205 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 53.5should be 51.5 · getting 1.8 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -112 | 53 -117 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -108 | 54 -113 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -41 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -108 | 54 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -109 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -41 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1768 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41 -111 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -112 | 53 -117 | — | — |
| ReBet | -41.5 -119 | 53.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -40.5 | — |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -37.0 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +41.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmAlabama -12should be Alabama -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -108 | 54 +100 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -105 | -514 | +383 |
All 22 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -108 | 54 +100 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | -500 | +350 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetMGM | -12 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -108 | 54 +100 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | -500 | +350 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 53.5 -114 | -500 | +350 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 54 -105 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -316 | -468 | +381 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -485 | +370 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | -520 | +370 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -104 | 54 +102 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -105 | -514 | +383 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -526 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Alabama).
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -12.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -245 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -450 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.0 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -12.0 | -108 | +106 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -500 | -366 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -120 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 4.4.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -12.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jacksonville State by 8.5 to Jacksonville State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 2.2 toward Middle Tennessee).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -698 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -348 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -208 |
| Market (17 books) | -7.0 | -270 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0 | -110 | +110 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -285 | -217 | -5.5% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.2.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMercyhurst +37.5should be Mercyhurst +35 · getting 2.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 37.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 5 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -37.5 -116 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $213 available; Under 55.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1783 |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales | |
| Market (4 books) | -37.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +37.5 | -110 | -125 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | Mercyhurst Lakers ML | +4086 | +8619 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmSouthern Miss +18should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -104 | 52.5 -109 | -1108 | +689 |
All 19 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -112 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -103 49¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -1250 | +750 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| BetMGM | -18 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +661 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -1250 | +750 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 45.5 +198 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -106 | 52.5 -105 | -1400 | +800 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -1000 | +661 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1262 | +682 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -104 | 52.5 -109 | -1108 | +689 |
| ReBet | -18.5 -111 | 51.5 -114 | -1099 | +600 |
| theScore Bet | -17.5 -120 | 52.5 +100 | -1400 | +750 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -535 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -498 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -947 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -902 |
| Market (17 books) | -18.0 | -972 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +800 | +673 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNC State -14should be NC State -14 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 14, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 55 -110 | -621 | +445 |
All 19 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 55 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 55 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 55.5 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 55 -115 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 55 -112 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 55 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -115 | 55 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -229 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 55.5 -102 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | -610 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 55 -114 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 55 -110 | -621 | +445 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 55.5 -109 | -676 | +430 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward NC State). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -415 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -981 |
| Massey | -16.0 | -542 |
| Market (17 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +14.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +430 | +433 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmArizona -10should be Arizona -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Washington State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +401 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +171 |
| Market (17 books) | +10.0 | +390 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -10.0 | -110 | +113 | -5.5% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -410 | -288 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North TexasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmHouston Christian +38.5should be Houston Christian +36.5 · getting 2 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -104 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -111 | 59.5 -109 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $0 available; Under 59.5, only $424 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| Sagarin | -30.0 | -3678 |
| Massey | rates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Baptist Huskies +38.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.4% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmMissouri State +34.5should be Missouri State +33.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -108 | 60 -107 | — | — |
All 19 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -110 | 59 -112 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -110 | 59 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -112 | 59 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -189 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -106 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +1725 |
| Pinnacle | -35 -108 | 60 -107 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 90°F.
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -34.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | — |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2727 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -27.5 | -2605 |
| Market (17 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +3000 | +6542 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -34.5 here against -34.8 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmOregon State -10.5should be Oregon State -11 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 11.5 to Oregon State by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +11.0, now +10.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward UTEP).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +493 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +432 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +238 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +377 |
| Market (16 books) | +10.5 | +416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -10.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -450 | -321 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UTEP Miners since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmFresno State -13.5should be Fresno State -14 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 14 to Fresno State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -603 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -501 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -456 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -514 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.5 | -525 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -585 | -441 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3.5should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -112 | 48 -109 | +147 | -171 |
All 18 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -108 | +145 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -116 | 48.5 -105 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -108 | +145 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -109 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1261 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 48.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +142 | -172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -112 | 48.5 -103 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +142 | -175 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -112 | 48 -109 | +147 | -171 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Stanford).
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +269 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +223 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +238 |
| Market (16 books) | +3.5 | +159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5 | -102 | +102 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -171 | -157 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio BobcatsStonehill at OhioCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 7 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -33 -120 | 52.5 +100 | — | — |
| betPARX | -33 -120 | 52.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -120 | 52.5 +100 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| ReBet | -32.5 -111 | 51.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -32.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 4.8 toward Stonehill).
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $308 available; Under 51.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Ohio on different scales | |
| Market (6 books) | -33.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 0.5.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina PiratesNorth Carolina Central at East CarolinaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -105 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward East Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $316 available; Under 54.5, only $300 available; North Carolina Central Eagles ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Massey | rates North Carolina Central and East Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (2 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida InternationalCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +3021 3¢ |
All 4 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +3021 3¢ |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 51.5 -104 | — | +2200 |
| ReBet | -32.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | — | +2500 |
Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 81°F, 26% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -34.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Long Island University).
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $306 available; Under 51.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Massey | rates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales | |
| Market (3 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward LIU Sharks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Sep 27
14 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Chiefs at Dolphins, Dolphins +11.5.Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmSteelers +3.5should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Steelers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.0% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Steelers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 43 +101 | +164 | -187 |
All 26 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -114 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +4 -114 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4 -114 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -113 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 23.5 +1131 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -184 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +160 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -107 | 42.5 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +152 | -197 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 43 +101 | +164 | -187 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 42.5 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +159 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Steelers +3.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, only $58 available; Over 42.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals) and 1 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +118 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +133 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +160 | +145 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmDolphins +11.5should be Dolphins +10.5 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +8.5▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Dolphins +11.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 46 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -109 | 46 -115 | +489 | -661 |
All 26 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 46 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 +101 48¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -112 | 46 -110 | +500 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 46 -115 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | +550 | -750 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 46 -115 | +505 | -700 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -112 | 46 -110 | +500 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -112 | 46 -110 | +500 | -770 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 46 -115 | +530 | -750 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +575 | -900 |
| Caesars | +11.5 -109 | 46.5 -106 | +500 | -750 |
| Courtside | — | 45.5 -108 | +625 | -852 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +600 | -900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +525 | -750 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -104 | 45.5 -115 | +540 | -770 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +535 | -915 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +525 | -800 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +12.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +525 | -800 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +12.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +525 | -800 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 46 -113 | +505 | -700 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +470 | -752 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -109 | 46 -115 | +489 | -661 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 +104 | 46.5 -104 | +567 | -614 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +510 | -699 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | +550 | -900 |
Marked: best for Dolphins, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Dolphins +11.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.5. The market has moved 3.0 away from Dolphins, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Matt Waletzko (OT, Chiefs) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +323 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +370 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +331 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +170 |
| Market (22 books) | +11.5 | +639 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +11.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +600 | +384 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmCommanders +7should be Commanders +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · CommandersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Commanders. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 6.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Commanders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 40 -110 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -131 55¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -118 | 40.5 -101 | +262 | -315 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 40 -110 | +245 | -320 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -131 55¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | +266 26¢ | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -112 | 40 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 40 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 40.5 -108 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 40 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| betPARX | +7 -112 | 40 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7 -112 | 40 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 40 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 40 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +7 -115 | 40.5 -107 | +260 | -330 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -3771 | +246 | -290 |
| DraftKings | +7 -112 | 40.5 -102 | +240 | -298 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 40 -110 | +250 | -320 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 40.5 -108 | +265 | -330 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 40.5 -110 | +255 | -360 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -105 | 40 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -105 | 40 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -105 | 40 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -104 | 40 -107 | +260 | -320 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 40 -110 | +260 | -360 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -118 | 40.5 -101 | +262 | -315 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -117 | 40.5 +100 | +285 | -300 |
| ReBet | +6.5 +100 | 40.5 -109 | +275 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -115 | 40.5 -105 | +260 | -340 |
Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Commanders +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 4.9 away from Commanders, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -7.5, only $171 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.2 consensus.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +256 here against +295 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.5 | +225 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +172 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +172 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +288 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +7.0 | -105 | -124 | +4.1% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +270 | +228 | +3.5% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.2 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +256 here against +295 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmPatriots +3should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +2.5▲A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Patriots's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -158 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 45 -112 | -155 | +137 |
All 26 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -158 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -158 | +138 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -158 | +138 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 45.5 -107 | -159 | +135 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -1208 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -105 | -154 | +132 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -103 | 45.5 -107 | -158 | +138 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -162 | +126 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 45 -112 | -155 | +137 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 +104 | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -109 | -155 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -108 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Patriots.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Patriots, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $5 available; New England Patriots ML, only $338 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Mike Onwenu (G, Patriots), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars) and 2 more.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -139 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -111 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -113 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3.0 | -108 | -111 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +133 | +133 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 39.5weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 39.5, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Giants by 3, the Nasty Number says Giants by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Giants by 6 to Giants by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -101 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 +109 46¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 39.5 -107 | -148 | +131 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -101 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 40.5 +109 46¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 40 -113 | -143 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -101 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -101 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 40 -113 | -143 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -104 | 40 -113 | -143 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 39.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -121 | 39.5 -110 | -143 | +122 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -6611 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -105 | -152 | +128 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 39.5 -115 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +104 | 39.5 -107 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 40 -110 | -153 | +120 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +104 | 39.5 -107 | -148 | +131 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 40.5 +113 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 39.5 -110 | -147 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -105 | 39.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 65°F, 46% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Titans). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -170 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -175 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -175 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +3.0 | -119 | -106 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +128 | +138 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutralCowboys +3should be Cowboys +3 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 52.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +111 | 53 -102 | +162 | -186 |
All 26 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 52.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -118 | 53 -108 | +138 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +151 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +103 | 52.5 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -118 | 53 -108 | +138 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 53 -108 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -113 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -252 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -106 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -125 | 52.5 -115 | +135 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 52.5 -107 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 +100 | 52.5 -110 | +150 | -196 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +111 | 53 -102 | +162 | -186 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 52.5 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | +149 | -176 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · +103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Baltimore Ravens -3.5, only $364 available; Over 52.5, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 2 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +114 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +164 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +155 | +142 | +2.1% |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | +103 | -103 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmBills -7.5should be Bills -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -104 | 50.5 -105 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +101 | 50 -108 | -336 | +278 |
All 25 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -104 | 50.5 -105 | -345 | +270 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -115 | 50 -112 | -385 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -104 | 50.5 -105 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -7 -115 | 50 -112 | -385 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 50 -112 | -385 | +275 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -3573 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -390 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +101 | 50.5 -102 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -350 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +101 | 50 -108 | -336 | +278 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 | 50.5 +104 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 49.5 -120 | -330 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Bills). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -7.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers), Dalvin Tomlinson (DT, Chargers).
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -284 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -303 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -193 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -308 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.5% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -345 | -257 | -5.5% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-20 18:04.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmPanthers -3should be Panthers -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 3, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -118 | 42 -115 | +131 | -151 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -117 | 42 -110 | +132 | -150 |
All 26 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -118 | 42 -115 | +131 | -151 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -113 | 41.5 -112 | +120 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 42 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 42 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -118 | 42 -115 | +131 | -151 |
| betPARX | +3 -113 | 41.5 -112 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -113 | 41.5 -112 | +120 | -148 |
| BetUS | +3 -120 | 42 -115 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 42 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -102 | 42.5 -107 | +127 | -150 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -1014 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 41.5 -115 | +130 | -154 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +105 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -115 | 42 -113 | +131 | -151 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 42 -110 | +122 | -156 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -117 | 42 -110 | +132 | -150 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 42.5 +100 | +138 | -144 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +127 | -150 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $252 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Jonathon Brooks (RB, Panthers), Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (LB, Browns).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +139 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +139 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +124 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 41.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -118 | -104 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +131 | +141 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | -300 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 48 +102 | -292 | +245 |
All 26 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | -300 | +245 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -1882 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -350 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +109 | 47.5 -109 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 48 +102 | -292 | +245 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 47.5 -104 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Arian Smith (WR, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -310 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -253 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -287 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -275 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -113 | +105 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -300 | -240 | -4.4% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus; total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pmColts +3should be Colts +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +134 | -151 |
All 26 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 43 -112 | +125 | -152 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 43 -112 | +125 | -152 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 43 -112 | +125 | -152 |
| BetUS | +3 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | 42.5 -113 | +124 | -148 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -3771 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -118 | 42.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +128 | -152 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -114 | 42.5 -107 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -154 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +134 | -151 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 42.5 -108 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +125 | -147 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Colts, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Henry To'oTo'o (LB, Texans), Micheal Clemons (DE, Colts).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +107 |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +109 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -107 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | -120 | -111 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +125 | +133 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm49ers -9should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -104 | 48 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -106 | 47.5 -114 | -386 | +313 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -104 | 48 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -104 | 48 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 48 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -8 -115 | 47.5 -117 | -410 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -3439 | -468 | +381 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -485 | +370 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -460 | +360 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -475 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -105 | 48 -107 | -410 | +324 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -450 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 -106 | 47.5 -114 | -386 | +313 |
| Polymarket | -8.5 -104 | 47.5 -108 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -420 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +8.5, only $36 available; Under 47.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Demarcus Robinson (WR, 49ers), Brandon Aiyuk (WR, 49ers), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.5 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -441 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -667 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -516 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -296 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.0 | -104 | +108 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -410 | -332 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.5 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pmVikings -1should be Vikings -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -107 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +105 47¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -116 | 43 +103 | +106 | -119 |
All 26 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -107 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +105 47¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -124 |
| BetAnything | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -107 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -124 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -124 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -106 | 42.5 -109 | +105 | -124 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -296 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -112 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +104 | -122 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -114 | 42.5 -107 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -116 | 43 +103 | +106 | -119 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -104 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Vikings).
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -1.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.7 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +108 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +140 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.0 | -113 | -110 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -120 | -116 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.7 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pmSaints -3should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 -106 | -175 | +154 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -114 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3 -114 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -120 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -6611 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3 -122 | 44.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -168 | +142 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +106 | 44 -107 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 +100 | 44 -110 | -183 | +142 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 -106 | -175 | +154 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +113 | 43.5 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -175 | +148 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $272 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints), Zach Wood (LS, Saints).
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -147 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -171 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -155 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -149 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -112 | -103 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -167 | -150 | -2.6% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pmRams -2.5should be Rams -2.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -101 | +127 | -143 |
All 26 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | +115 | -141 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -107 | 44.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | +115 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | +115 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 45.5 -106 | +117 | -137 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -1484 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -105 | +120 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -105 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +101 | 44.5 -107 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +116 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -101 | +127 | -143 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | — | +127 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -109 | +120 | -142 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos +2.5, only $54 available; Over 45.5, only $309 available; Under 45.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos), Myles Garrett (DE, Rams).
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +123 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +143 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +132 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +124 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.5 | -107 | +108 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +120 | +133 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 28
1 game1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Bears, Bears +5.0.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmBears +5should be Bears +3.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Bears +5.0: all 4 ratings our side, 4.8% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 44 to 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 +100 | 41.5 +101 | +200 | -226 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -110 | 41 -114 | +165 | -205 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -110 | 41 -114 | +165 | -205 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -110 | 41 -114 | +165 | -205 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -113 | 41.5 -105 | +189 | -230 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -103 | 41.5 -103 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | +194 | -235 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -103 | 41 -107 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 42 -110 | +187 | -246 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 +100 | 41.5 +101 | +200 | -226 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 -104 | 40.5 | +203 | -213 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | +190 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -120 | 40.5 -120 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for Bears, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears +5.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from +3.0 to +4.5.
Kalshi thin: Under 41.5, only $26 available; Over 40.5, only $344 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles) and 2 more.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +212 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +111 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -128 |
| Massey | +1.0 | -119 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +198 | +153 | +6.0% |
| Spread | Chicago Bears +5.0 | -110 | -133 | +4.8% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.4 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +212 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1844%-5.19 units32 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 15. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-18 | 43.8% | -5.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 136 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-23 09:07.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 71 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.67 | 56 |
| FPI | 9.86 | 111 |
| SP+ | 10.03 | 111 |
| The market | 10.21 | 162 |
| Sagarin | 11.70 | 152 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 57 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 56 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 57 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 71 |
The line archive, 162 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.46 points better than the close on average over 152 games. The close misses the final by 10.10, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.32, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.33, MyBookie.ag 9.83, Kalshi 9.91.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 15 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.56 | 32 |
| nfelo | 11.85 | 32 |
| Sagarin | 11.97 | 32 |
| FPI | 12.91 | 17 |
| Massey | 12.94 | 15 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 15 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 15 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 15 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 15 |
The line archive, 32 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 8, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.86 points better than the close on average over 27 games. The close misses the final by 11.49, the open by 11.69, our raw ratings number by 11.95, Pinnacle's close by 11.52. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 11.44, Bovada 11.44, TOM 11.44.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 113 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 62 | 14.8 | 18-27 (40%) | 12-14 (46%) |
| Massey | 66 | 13.8 | 14-17 (45%) | 5-11 (31%) |
| The blend | 67 | 14.1 | 14-23 (38%) | 9-11 (45%) |
NFL, 22 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 18 | 10.3 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 16 | 10.2 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 18 | 9.1 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 87 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 6 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.
What's changed since Tue 22 Sep, 9:08am
- MovedColorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners is now Colorado State Rams +13.5, was Colorado State Rams +13.0.
- OffLouisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers dropped off. It was Charlotte 49ers +10.5.
- MovedTexas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers switched from the spread to the moneyline: now Texas A&M Aggies ML at +296.
- MovedUMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets is now Sacramento State Hornets +4.5, was Sacramento State Hornets +5.0.
- OffAir Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack dropped off. It was Nevada Wolf Pack +5.0.
- NewPhiladelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears is now a pick: Chicago Bears +5.0 at -110.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.9Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
- → 4.6Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
- → 3.0Kansas City Chiefs at Miami Dolphinstoward Kansas City Chiefswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 25%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 86 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 71 | 8.78 |
| SP+ | 111 | 10.03 |
| FPI | 128 | 10.26 |
| The market | 194 | 10.43 |
| Sagarin | 184 | 11.75 |
| nfelo | 32 | 11.85 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 86-93 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 833573 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.19 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 129 | 1.73 |
| DraftKings | 283 | 1.49 |
| FanDuel | 323 | 1.42 |
| LowVig.ag | 264 | 1.38 |
| BetOnline.ag | 272 | 1.38 |
| BetRivers | 303 | 1.34 |
| MyBookie.ag | 216 | 1.30 |
| ReBet | 93 | 1.24 |
| Caesars | 236 | 1.21 |
| BetMGM | 270 | 1.14 |
| Fanatics | 251 | 1.11 |
| BetUS | 217 | 1.11 |
| betPARX | 95 | 1.09 |
| Bally Bet | 95 | 1.09 |
| Bovada | 272 | 1.04 |
| TOM | 257 | 1.02 |
| Courtside | 44 | 1.02 |
| Pinnacle | 270 | 0.97 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 99 | 0.94 |
| theScore Bet | 94 | 0.89 |
| Fliff | 41 | 0.68 |
| BetAnything | 92 | 0.64 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.60 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.53 |
| Polymarket | 21 | 0.48 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated 2 days ago
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated yesterday
- Sagarin updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
- nfelo updated today