Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Marshall at Missouri StateMissouri State +4.5 -110Nasty Pick · called Wed 9:06amStill a playSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOM, half a point worse than the +4.5 -110 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Virginia at West VirginiaWest Virginia +10 -105Nasty Pick · called Mon 3:35pmStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. West Virginia +10.5 · -112 at TOM, half a point better, 7 cents worse than the +10 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Eagles at TitansTitans +7-107 · 3.4% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this SauceNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Miami (OH) at CincinnatiCincinnati -16-105 · 4.6% after the price, the Cut is 6% for this SauceNeeds a better numberSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Kansas at Arizona State, Over 50.5. The total has come down 3 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Kansas at Arizona StateMoved our way · 3 ptsOver 50.5should be 52.1 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›UAB at LouisianaMoved our way · 3 ptsOver 55.5should be 57.9 · getting 2.4 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›NC State at VanderbiltMoved our way · 2.5 ptsOver 50.5should be 52 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 11:45am Buck's case ›Ohio at South AlabamaMoved our way · 1 ptOhio +7should be Ohio +6.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Florida at AuburnUnder 53.5should be 50.2 · getting 3.3 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›North Texas at Texas StateOver 62.5should be 64.3 · getting 1.8 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›LSU at Ole MissUnder 58.5should be 56.8 · getting 1.7 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Panthers at Falcons▲Falcons +2.5should be Falcons +1 · getting 1.5 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›Seahawks at CardinalsCardinals +4should be Cardinals +4 · was +6Sun 3:25pm Buck's case ›Stanford at DukeOver 50.5should be 51.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 3:00pm Buck's case ›Vikings at BearsUnder 48weather: 20 mph wind and 72% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›James Madison at San Diego StateOver 46should be 47.3 · getting 1.3 ptsSat 9:00pm Buck's case ›
Buck's Take
Two Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Missouri State +4.5 and West Virginia +10. Read the receipt before you bet it.
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati, Cincinnati -16. Every system has Cincinnati by 18; the market has Cincinnati by 16. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -14.
Eagles at Titans, Titans +7. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Under 53.5 (Florida at Auburn) at 5.2% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Kansas at Arizona State, Over 50.5, down 3 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Marshall at Missouri State, Missouri State +4.5. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Today
3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB 6:30pmNo betmarket says Miami by 20, our data says Miami by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Miami by 21 to Miami by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +1074 8¢ | -1236 92¢ |
| Pinnacle | +20 -103 | 55.5 -107 | +942 | -1556 |
All 12 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +1074 8¢ | -1236 92¢ |
| BetMGM | +20.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | +1050 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +20.5 -112 | 55 -115 | +945 | -1700 |
| BetRivers | +21 -114 | 56 -110 | +950 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| Bovada | +20.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +850 | -1800 |
| Caesars | +20.5 -108 | 55.5 -120 | +950 | -2000 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | +950 | -1650 |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1500 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -106 | 55.5 -106 | +890 | -1700 |
| LowVig.ag | +20.5 -108 | 55 -116 | +945 | -1700 |
| Pinnacle | +20 -103 | 55.5 -107 | +942 | -1556 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 48% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +20.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Miami).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1032 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +955 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +554 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +482 |
| Market (11 books) | +20.0 | +977 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.0 | -110 | +123 | -7.6% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +945 | +948 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 3.0.
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas TechCFB 7:00pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 7.5, our data says Texas Tech by 8Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas Tech by 8.5 to Texas Tech by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -109 | 52.5 -105 | -330 | +273 |
All 12 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 53 -110 | -335 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -8 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -113 | 52.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -320 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -109 | 52.5 -105 | -330 | +273 |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Houston). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.5 | -285 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -266 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -277 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -320 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.5 | -281 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -325 | -235 | -6.3% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Portland State Vikings at Oregon DucksPortland State at OregonCFB 9:30pmNo betmarket says Oregon by 58, our data says Oregon by 56Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 58.
The spread
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -58.5, now -58.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Portland State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Portland State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Portland State | |
| Sagarin | -51.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Portland State and Oregon on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -58.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 70.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Portland State Vikings +58.0 | -110 | -188 | +12.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Portland State Vikings since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 4.6.
The line is -58.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tomorrow
71 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsMarshall at Missouri StateCFB tomorrow 5:30pmMissouri State +4.5 -110Bet it · now Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +4.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at Missouri State +4.5 -110. Bet it. Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOM, half a point worse than the +4.5 -110 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Marshall by 4, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Missouri State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -114 | 53.5 -103 | +162 | -189 |
All 10 books
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +157 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 53.5 -115 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 53 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +4 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | +146 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 53.5 -108 | +157 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -114 | 53.5 -103 | +162 | -189 |
Marked: best for Missouri State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +130 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -156 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +151 |
| Market (9 books) | +4.0 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +4.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +150 | +142 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus.
Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West VirginiaCFB tomorrow 6:30pm · neutralWest Virginia +10 -105Bet it · now West Virginia +10.5 · -112 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +10 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at West Virginia +10 -105. Bet it. West Virginia +10.5 · -112 at TOM, half a point better, 7 cents worse than the +10 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Virginia by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 10. Correction, Fri Sep 18. This game is on a neutral field in Charlotte. When we posted it, the Nasty Sauce gave West Virginia a home field it doesn't have, about two points in every one of the Four. On a neutral field the edge at posting was about 2.5%, under the Cut: Damn Near Nasty, not a Nasty Pick. The pick stands as posted and grades at West Virginia +10 -105. Size it like a Damn Near Nasty.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -112 | 53 -105 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +331 22¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 53.5 -105 | +326 | -421 |
All 13 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -112 | 53 -105 | +310 | -400 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +331 22¢ | -404 79¢ |
| BetMGM | +11 -118 | 53.5 -110 | +333 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -112 | 53 -105 | +316 | -400 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 54 -112 | +310 | -420 |
| BetUS | +11 -110 | 53 -105 | +320 | -400 |
| Bovada | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 +100 | +320 | -430 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -113 | 53.5 -106 | +320 | -420 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +320 | -410 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -118 | 53.5 -110 | +315 | -410 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -108 | 53 -103 | +316 | -400 |
| Pinnacle | +10 +102 | 53.5 -105 | +326 | -421 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +10.5 · -112 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.
BetUS still has West Virginia +11.0 while Pinnacle is at Virginia by 10.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +285 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +349 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +167 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +202 |
| Market (11 books) | +10.5 | +324 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers +10.5 | -112 | -116 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | +310 | +289 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at CincinnatiCFB tomorrow 2:30pmCincinnati -16should be Cincinnati -16.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -14.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Cincinnati -16.0: all 4 ratings our side, 4.6% after the price, the Cut is 6% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cincinnati is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16 -105 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -16 -101 | 49 -115 | -714 | +496 |
All 12 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16 -105 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| BetMGM | -15.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -750 | +550 |
| BetOnline.ag | -16 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -750 | +534 |
| BetRivers | -15 -110 | 49.5 -118 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -16 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -750 | +530 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -15.5 -110 | 49.5 -109 | -750 | +500 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -820 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -16 -101 | 49.5 -103 | -750 | +534 |
| Pinnacle | -16 -101 | 49 -115 | -714 | +496 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati -16.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -16.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -14.0 or better.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
Kalshi still has Cincinnati -14.5 while Pinnacle is at Cincinnati by 16.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -21.5 | -1274 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -657 |
| Massey | -19.0 | -897 |
| Market (10 books) | -16.0 | -540 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats -16.0 | -105 | -126 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | -750 | -651 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.2 consensus.
Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsOhio at South AlabamaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmOhio +7Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Ohio +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +4A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says South Alabama by 7, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 6.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -105 | 49 -105 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 49 -104 | -245 | +204 |
All 11 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -105 | 49 -105 | -260 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +217 30¢ |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -105 | 49 -105 | -260 | +215 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 48.5 -117 | -245 | +190 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 49 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -245 | +205 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -112 | -258 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -105 | -250 | +202 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -101 | 49 -103 | -260 | +215 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 49 -104 | -245 | +204 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio +7.0 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -4.0, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.8 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats +6.5, only $423 available; Under 48.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -249 here against -218 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -156 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -149 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -151 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (9 books) | -7.0 | -249 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | +210 | +196 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats +7.0 | -115 | -120 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.6 consensus; moneyline -249 here against -218 consensus.
North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 62.5should be 64.3 · getting 1.8 pts · was 63.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 62.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas State by 3 to Texas State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -143 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -138 | +120 |
All 10 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -143 | +118 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 62.5 -112 | -140 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -143 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 63.5 -112 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 62 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 62.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 62.5 -110 | -144 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 62.5 -103 | -143 | +123 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -138 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 62.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -149 |
| FPI | +7.0 | +208 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -111 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +238 |
| Market (9 books) | -2.5 | -137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | 71.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +118 | +115 | +0.5% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +2.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 62.5 | -105 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona StateCFB tomorrow 11:00am · neutralOver 50.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 52.1 · getting 1.6 pts · was 56.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Arizona State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -108 | 50.5 -111 | -210 | +178 |
All 11 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -107 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -107 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -6 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -205 | +172 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +172 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -103 | 50.5 -108 | -205 | +177 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -108 | 50.5 -111 | -210 | +178 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -148 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (10 books) | -5.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +5.5 | -113 | -112 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +165 | +168 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -105 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 6.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at VanderbiltCFB tomorrow 11:45amOver 50.5Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 52 · getting 1.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vanderbilt by 3, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 4.5 to Vanderbilt by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | NC State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -158 | +133 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 51 -101 | -161 | +139 |
All 11 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | NC State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -158 | +133 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -158 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 50.5 -112 | -162 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 50.5 -112 | -164 | +138 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 50.5 -112 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -166 | +138 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 50.5 -108 | -158 | +138 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -114 | 51 -101 | -161 | +139 |
Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward NC State).
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -158 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -144 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -161 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -3.0 | -115 | -102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | -158 | -142 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at DukeCFB tomorrow 3:00pmOver 50.5should be 51.6 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 10, the Nasty Number says Duke by 11. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Duke by 9.5 to Duke by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +101 | 51.5 -101 | -398 | +311 |
All 12 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 50.5 -112 | -400 | +295 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 51 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -106 | 50.5 -115 | -400 | +305 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -104 | 51.5 -104 | -400 | +310 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -400 | +316 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +101 | 51.5 -101 | -398 | +311 |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 83°F, 29% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Duke). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -328 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -420 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -456 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -261 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -438 |
| Market (10 books) | -10.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duke Blue Devils -10.0 | -112 | -105 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Duke Blue Devils ML | -400 | -330 | -3.3% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus; moneyline -383 here against -328 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at AuburnCFB tomorrow 6:00pmUnder 53.5should be 50.2 · getting 3.3 pts · was 52A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 10.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 2.5 to Florida by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +106 | -126 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 +101 | +113 | -129 |
All 12 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +106 | -126 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 52.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +106 | -126 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 53 -109 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 53 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -113 | 53 -113 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 53.5 -102 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | +104 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 53.5 -106 | +106 | -126 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 +101 | +113 | -129 |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 86°F, 61% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +2.5, only $421 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Florida -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +179 |
| FPI | PK | -102 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +110 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (10 books) | +1.5 | +111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +1.5 | -110 | +102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +106 | +113 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -112 | -139 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole MissCFB tomorrow 6:30pmUnder 58.5should be 56.8 · getting 1.7 pts · was 58A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 58.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says LSU by 3, the Nasty Number says LSU by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 2.5 to LSU by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 58.5 | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 58.5 -107 | +133 | -154 |
All 12 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 58.5 | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 58.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +135 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 58.5 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 58.5 -108 | +128 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | 58.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 58.5 -110 | +130 | -154 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -108 | 58.5 -107 | +133 | -154 |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 96°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +204 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +169 |
| Sagarin | PK | +101 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -175 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.0 | +136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +130 | +135 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -105 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at LouisianaCFB tomorrow 7:00pmOver 55.5Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be 57.9 · getting 2.4 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 8, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 8.5 to Louisiana by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 56 -105 | -311 | +252 |
All 11 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -120 | 55.5 -117 | -335 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 56 -105 | -310 | +255 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -106 | 55.5 -114 | -310 | +252 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 56 -105 | -311 | +252 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UAB).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -415 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -324 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -224 |
| Market (9 books) | -8.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 63.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -8.0 | -110 | +105 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -310 | -260 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -115 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UAB Blazers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.5 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus; moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego StateCFB tomorrow 9:00pmOver 46should be 47.3 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says San Diego State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -2 +102 | 46.5 -105 | -113 | -101 |
All 10 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -114 | 46.5 -117 | -122 | +100 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -125 | +104 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 46 -114 | -125 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -2 +102 | 46.5 -105 | -113 | -101 |
Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Across the books: opened -0.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward San Diego State).
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -120 here against -108 consensus.
Bovada still has San Diego State -1.0 while Pinnacle is at San Diego State by 2.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +127 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -125 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +181 |
| Market (9 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | +105 | +109 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus; total 46.0 here against 46.4 consensus; moneyline -120 here against -108 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at DelawareCFB tomorrow 10:30amCoastal Carolina +4.5should be Coastal Carolina +4 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Delaware by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Coastal Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -120 | 57.5 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5 -108 | 57.5 -107 | -207 | +176 |
All 11 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -120 | 57.5 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -120 | 57.5 -110 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 57.5 -108 | -198 | +164 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -118 | 57.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -116 | 57.5 -108 | -205 | +177 |
| Pinnacle | -5 -108 | 57.5 -107 | -207 | +176 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Coastal Carolina +4.5 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -136 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -238 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -157 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +132 |
| Market (9 books) | -4.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 59.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5 | +100 | -112 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +165 | +156 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.0 consensus.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksGeorgia Southern at Jacksonville StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmGeorgia Southern +3should be Georgia Southern +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -113 | -163 | +141 |
All 10 books
| Jacksonville State spread | Total (over) | Jacksonville State ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -162 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 53 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 52.5 -112 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 52.5 -112 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 52.5 -108 | -165 | +145 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -115 | 52.5 -113 | -163 | +141 |
Marked: best for Georgia Southern, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Southern +3.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F, 32% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -111 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -144 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -111 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +3.0 | +100 | -105 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +135 | +132 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&MCFB tomorrow 2:30pmTexas A&M -16.5should be Texas A&M -17 · getting 0.5 pts · was -14.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas A&M by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 17. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Texas A&M is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16.5 -120 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -15.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -869 89¢ | +685 12¢ |
| Pinnacle | -17 -108 | 50 -105 | -850 | +567 |
All 13 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16.5 -120 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -15.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -869 89¢ | +685 12¢ |
| BetMGM | -17 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -900 | +625 |
| BetOnline.ag | -16.5 -120 | 50 -110 | -925 | +624 |
| BetRivers | -17 -109 | 50.5 -109 | -910 | +550 |
| BetUS | -17 -110 | 50 -105 | -925 | +615 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -105 | 50 -105 | -900 | +575 |
| Caesars | -16.5 -121 | 49.5 -117 | -850 | +575 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 -118 | 49.5 -112 | -850 | +575 |
| Fanatics | -17 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -900 | +600 |
| FanDuel | -16.5 -122 | 50.5 -105 | -1100 | +680 |
| LowVig.ag | -16.5 -116 | 50 -108 | -925 | +624 |
| Pinnacle | -17 -108 | 50 -105 | -850 | +567 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M -16.5 · -120 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 95°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -17.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -16.5 here against -16.9 consensus.
Kalshi still has Texas A&M -15.5 while Pinnacle is at Texas A&M by 17.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -1061 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1198 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -426 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -522 |
| Market (11 books) | -16.5 | -613 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -16.5 | -120 | -128 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -900 | -682 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread -16.5 here against -16.9 consensus.
Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida AtlanticCFB tomorrow 5:00pmNo betmarket says Florida Atlantic by 6.5, our data says Florida Atlantic by 6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 7 to Florida Atlantic by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 62.5 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -111 | 62 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 62.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -112 | 62.5 -103 | -246 | +205 |
All 11 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Florida International ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -111 | 62 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 62.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 62.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -111 | 62 -110 | -250 | +207 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -120 | 62.5 -108 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6 -115 | 62 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 62 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -114 | 62.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -107 | 62 -108 | -250 | +207 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -112 | 62.5 -103 | -246 | +205 |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida International). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 62.0 here against 62.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -239 here against -217 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -183 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -201 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -146 |
| Market (9 books) | -6.5 | -239 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Florida International Panthers ML | +200 | +192 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Florida International Panthers +6.5 | -109 | -107 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: total 62.0 here against 62.4 consensus; moneyline -239 here against -217 consensus.
Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at MinnesotaCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Minnesota by 23, our data says Minnesota by 23.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 26.5 to Minnesota by 23. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -105 | 49 -107 | -3011 | +1357 |
All 11 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -107 50¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| BetMGM | -23 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -3000 | +1550 |
| BetOnline.ag | -23 -105 | 49 -110 | — | +1356 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -114 | 49.5 -115 | — | +1400 |
| BetUS | -23 -110 | 49 -110 | — | +1500 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | +1100 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -102 | 49.5 -108 | -3200 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -23 -101 | 49 -108 | — | +1356 |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -105 | 49 -107 | -3011 | +1357 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F, 22% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -27.5, now -23.5 (the market moved 4.1 toward Akron).
TOM: spread -23.0 here against -23.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2298 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -661 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2374 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1618 |
| Market (9 books) | -23.0 | -1421 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -23.0 | -105 | -145 | +8.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -3500 | -1646 | priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.1 toward Akron Zips since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: spread -23.0 here against -23.4 consensus.
The line is -23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at ArkansasCFB tomorrow 11:00amOver 54.5should be 55.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 26 to Georgia by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -103 | 55 -104 | +1277 | -2734 |
All 13 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +24.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| BetMGM | +24.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +1500 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | +1296 | -3200 |
| BetRivers | +25 -110 | 54 -115 | +1400 | — |
| BetUS | +25 -110 | 55 -110 | +1350 | -3200 |
| Bovada | +24.5 -105 | 55 -105 | +1100 | — |
| Caesars | +24.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | +1300 | — |
| DraftKings | +24.5 -108 | 54.5 -118 | +1300 | -2800 |
| Fanatics | +25 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +1400 | -2800 |
| FanDuel | +24.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +1500 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24.5 -101 | 54.5 -114 | +1296 | -3200 |
| Pinnacle | +24.5 -103 | 55 -104 | +1277 | -2734 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +24.5 (the market moved 7.1 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.5 | +2334 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2518 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +679 |
| Massey | +15.5 | +570 |
| Market (11 books) | +24.5 | +1358 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 60.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +24.5 | -105 | +129 | -7.6% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +1325 | +1782 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 7.1 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.8 consensus.
The line is +24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Iowa State by 24, our data says Iowa State by 24Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Iowa State by 22.5 to Iowa State by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -107 | 43.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -111 | 44 +101 | -2138 | +1088 |
All 11 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -107 | 43.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -24 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -107 | 43.5 -115 | -2400 | +1136 |
| BetRivers | -24 -110 | 43.5 -120 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -24 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -2400 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -2200 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -24 -109 | 43.5 -117 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -2400 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -101 | 43.5 -114 | -2400 | +1136 |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -111 | 44 +101 | -2138 | +1088 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -23.0 | -1627 |
| FPI | -22.0 | -1408 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1493 |
| Massey | -29.5 | -4332 |
| Market (10 books) | -24.0 | -1193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +24.0 | -113 | +139 | -11.3% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +1175 | +1770 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.7.
TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsBuffalo at Penn StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amUnder 50should be 48.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 47.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 41.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 39.5 to Penn State by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -41 -112 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -104 | 49.5 -107 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -41 -112 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41 -112 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -40.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -41 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -41 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -118 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -115 | 49.5 -106 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41 -108 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -104 | 49.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -41.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Penn State).
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -33.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.0 | — |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 44.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +41.0 | -108 | -190 | +13.6% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Penn State Nittany Lions since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at ClemsonCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Clemson by 3, our data says Clemson by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 3, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 4.5 to Clemson by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -131 55¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 43.5 -118 | -160 | +138 |
All 11 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 42.5 -131 55¢ | -161 60¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 44.5 -102 | -160 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -107 | 43.5 -113 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 44 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 44 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -114 | 44 -112 | -164 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 44.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 44.5 -105 | -164 | +138 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 44 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 43.5 -118 | -160 | +138 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.5 toward North Carolina). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -151 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -228 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -258 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -3.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -160 | -147 | -2.1% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 0.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mercer Bears at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsMercer at Georgia TechCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Georgia Tech by 39.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 33Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia Tech by 39.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia Tech by 38.5 to Georgia Tech by 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Mercer ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39.5 -125 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 +101 48¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39.5 -125 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Mercer ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39.5 -125 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 +101 48¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -39.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39.5 -125 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -40.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -39.5 -110 | 59.5 -106 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -39.5 -125 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -39.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Mercer).
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercer | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercer | |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1583 |
| Massey | rates Mercer and Georgia Tech on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -39.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercer Bears +39.5 | +105 | -114 | +4.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Mercer Bears since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amNo betmarket says Kansas State by 20.5, our data says Kansas State by 19.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Kansas State by 19 to Kansas State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -109 | 50 -104 | -1358 | +797 |
All 11 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -112 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -115 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -21 -109 | 49.5 -112 | -2500 | +950 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -110 | 50 -115 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -1500 | +775 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -118 | -1700 | +900 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -108 | 49.5 -112 | -1450 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -2000 | +980 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 50 -114 | -1400 | +836 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -109 | 50 -104 | -1358 | +797 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.0 | -1387 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -465 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -637 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -477 |
| Market (10 books) | -20.5 | -870 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +20.5 | -110 | +119 | -6.7% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +843 | +949 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio StateCFB tomorrow 11:00amUnder 59should be 57.1 · getting 1.9 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 +103 | 58.5 -120 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -52.5 -108 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -52.5 -114 | 59.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -52.5 -110 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -53 +100 | 58.5 -120 | — | — |
| Caesars | -52.5 -110 | 59.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -52.5 -105 | 59.5 -102 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -52.5 -110 | 59 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -52.5 -112 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -52.5 -106 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -53 +103 | 58.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -53.0 | — |
| FPI | -54.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -51.5 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -52.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kent State Golden Flashes +52.5 | -110 | -154 | +8.2% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread -52.5 here against -52.8 consensus.
The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at WisconsinCFB tomorrow 11:30amUnder 44.5should be 42.8 · getting 1.7 pts · was 47.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 23.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Wisconsin by 24.5 to Wisconsin by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 +105 47¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -107 | 45 -102 | -2349 | +1157 |
All 12 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -23.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 +105 47¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| BetMGM | -23.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -23.5 -116 | 44.5 -110 | -2600 | +1176 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -110 | 44.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -23.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -2600 | +1200 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 45 -105 | -2500 | +1000 |
| Caesars | -23.5 -112 | 44.5 -118 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -23.5 -112 | 44.5 -112 | -2400 | +1200 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -23.5 -112 | 44.5 -108 | -2600 | +1176 |
| Pinnacle | -23.5 -107 | 45 -102 | -2349 | +1157 |
Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -24.5, now -23.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Eastern Michigan).
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.5 | -991 |
| FPI | -22.5 | -1512 |
| Sagarin | -28.0 | -3388 |
| Massey | -22.5 | -1521 |
| Market (10 books) | -23.5 | -1222 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eastern Michigan Eagles +23.5 | -104 | +140 | -9.2% |
| Moneyline | Eastern Michigan Eagles ML | +1200 | +1643 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central MichiganCFB tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says a pick'em, our data says a pick'emNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Central Michigan by 1.5 to a pick'em. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -108 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 37.5 -126 54¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -112 | 39 -106 | -107 | -107 |
All 11 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -108 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 37.5 -126 54¢ | -112 51¢ | -112 51¢ |
| BetMGM | +1 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -108 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +1 -113 | 38.5 -115 | -108 | -115 |
| BetUS | PK -110 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -115 | 39 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 38.5 -112 | -108 | -112 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -106 | -113 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -104 | 38.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +1 -112 | 39 -106 | -107 | -107 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 59°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Wyoming).
TOM: spread PK here against +0.9 consensus.
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.8 consensus.
Kalshi still has Wyoming +1.5 while Pinnacle is at Wyoming by 1. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.3% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +111 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -120 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +132 |
| Market (9 books) | PK | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 37.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys PK | -112 | -100 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | -112 | -100 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 38.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 3.7.
TOM: spread PK here against +0.9 consensus; total 38.5 here against 38.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Maine Black Bears at Boston College EaglesMaine at Boston CollegeCFB tomorrow 1:00pmNo betmarket says Boston College by 38.5, our data says Boston College by 35.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boston College by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Maine ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 55 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38.5 -108 | 53.5 -109 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Maine ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 55 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -107 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -115 | 55 +102 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38.5 -108 | 53.5 -109 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -39.5, now -38.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maine).
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Maine | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Maine | |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -4151 |
| Massey | rates Maine and Boston College on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maine Black Bears +38.5 | -110 | +123 | -7.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maine Black Bears since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.8 consensus.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting IlliniSouthern Illinois at IllinoisCFB tomorrow 1:00pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 38.5, our data says Illinois by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Illinois by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Illinois by 41.5 to Illinois by 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Southern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -115 | 56.5 -101 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Southern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -115 | 56.5 -101 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -113 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -39.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -115 | 56.5 -101 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F, 32% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -38.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Southern Illinois).
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2216 |
| Massey | rates Southern Illinois and Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Illinois Salukis +38.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.2% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Southern Illinois Salukis since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.7.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at ToledoCFB tomorrow 2:00pmNo betmarket says Toledo by 6, our data says Toledo by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 6, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 5.5 to Toledo by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 49.5 -102 | -219 | +185 |
All 11 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| BetMGM | -6 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -225 | +188 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -105 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +189 |
| BetRivers | -5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | -210 | +165 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -225 | +184 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -101 | 49.5 -103 | -225 | +189 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -103 | 49.5 -102 | -219 | +185 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 68°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Toledo).
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -145 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -140 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -258 |
| Market (9 books) | -6.0 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +6.0 | -115 | -107 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +175 | +184 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: moneyline -215 here against -196 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at AlabamaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 19, our data says Alabama by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 20 to Alabama by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -115 | 49.5 -107 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -112 | 49.5 -116 | -1329 | +785 |
All 12 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -115 | 49.5 -107 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -115 | 49.5 -107 | -1400 | +836 |
| BetRivers | -20 -112 | 49.5 -112 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetUS | -19 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 50 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -108 | 49.5 -107 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -112 | 49.5 -108 | -1350 | +800 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -111 | 49.5 -105 | -1400 | +836 |
| Pinnacle | -19.5 -112 | 49.5 -116 | -1329 | +785 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 99°F.
Across the books: opened -17.5, now -19.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Alabama).
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -762 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -473 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -665 |
| Market (11 books) | -19.0 | -847 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +19.0 | -105 | +114 | -4.5% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +836 | +805 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -113 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.5 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wagner Seahawks at California Golden BearsWagner at CaliforniaCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says California by 58.5, our data says California by 53.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says California by 58.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 64.5, only $91 available; Under 64.5, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Wagner | |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Wagner and California on different scales | |
| Market (1 books) | -58.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 65.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wagner Seahawks +58.5 | -110 | -246 | +18.7% |
The line is -58.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Duquesne Dukes at Washington State CougarsDuquesne at Washington StateCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Washington State by 38.5, our data says Washington State by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington State by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -38.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Washington State).
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Duquesne | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Duquesne | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2483 |
| Massey | rates Duquesne and Washington State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Duquesne Dukes +38.5 | -110 | +113 | -5.4% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.3.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at LouisvilleCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Louisville by 1.5, our data says Louisville by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -110 | -124 | +104 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -102 | 58.5 -110 | -119 | +104 |
All 13 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | SMU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -110 | -124 | +104 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -106 | 58.5 -110 | -124 | +104 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -125 | +100 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 58.5 -117 | -120 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -118 | -102 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 58.5 -114 | -126 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -102 | 58.5 -108 | -124 | +104 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -102 | 58.5 -110 | -119 | +104 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 92°F.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -1.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -118 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.5 | -119 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs +1.5 | -114 | +106 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | SMU Mustangs ML | +104 | +117 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at MichiganCFB tomorrow 2:30pmUnder 49should be 47.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 48.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Michigan by 36.5 to Michigan by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -105 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -105 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -105 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -105 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -122 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -101 | 49 -103 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -105 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 49% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward UTEP).
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -32.0 | — |
| FPI | -34.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (10 books) | -35.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +35.0 | -115 | +156 | -14.4% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -115 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UTEP Miners since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.6 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at RutgersCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says USC by 21.5, our data says USC by 21Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from USC by 24.5 to USC by 21.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +21.5 -110 | 57.5 -118 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Pinnacle | +22 -110 | 58.5 -101 | +1093 | -2153 |
All 13 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +21.5 -110 | 57.5 -118 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -103 49¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| BetMGM | +21.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | +1200 | -2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21.5 -110 | 57.5 -118 | +1096 | -2200 |
| BetRivers | +22 -110 | 58 -115 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +21.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +1100 | -2200 |
| Bovada | +22 -115 | 58.5 +100 | +1000 | -2200 |
| Caesars | +21.5 -105 | 57.5 -117 | +1100 | -2500 |
| DraftKings | +21.5 -105 | 58.5 -102 | +1100 | -2100 |
| Fanatics | +21.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -108 | 57.5 -106 | +1100 | -2500 |
| LowVig.ag | +21.5 -106 | 57.5 -117 | +1096 | -2200 |
| Pinnacle | +22 -110 | 58.5 -101 | +1093 | -2153 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +22.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Rutgers).
TOM: spread +21.5 here against +21.8 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1703 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +681 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +483 |
| Market (11 books) | +21.5 | +1156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 62.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +21.5 | -110 | +120 | -7.0% |
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +1100 | +1165 | priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -118 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: spread +21.5 here against +21.8 consensus; total 57.5 here against 58.2 consensus.
The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at UtahCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo betmarket says Utah by 27.5, our data says Utah by 27Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28 -104 | 57 +101 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28 -108 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28 -107 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -112 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -105 | 57 +100 | — | — |
| Caesars | -28 -107 | 56.5 -114 | — | +1750 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -115 | 56.5 -112 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -28 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -27.5 -120 | 56.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -104 | 57 +101 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Utah).
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -24.0 | -1866 |
| Sagarin | -24.5 | -1913 |
| Massey | -27.0 | -2912 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.5 | -1970 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +27.5 | -110 | +146 | -11.7% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +2000 | +2817 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Utah Utes since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.9 consensus.
The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at LibertyCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says Liberty by 15, our data says Liberty by 14Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 15, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 14. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Liberty by 14.5 to Liberty by 15. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 54 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15 -107 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -15 -105 | 50 +101 | -684 | +480 |
All 10 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15 -107 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15 -107 | 49 -110 | -675 | +491 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -15 -105 | 49 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -700 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -675 | +490 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -780 | +530 |
| LowVig.ag | -15 -103 | 49 -108 | -675 | +491 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -105 | 50 +101 | -684 | +480 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -13.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Liberty). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -323 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -365 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -287 |
| Market (9 books) | -15.0 | -511 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +15.0 | -113 | +101 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +490 | +487 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Liberty Flames since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 7.8.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at BaylorCFB tomorrow 3:00pmOver 48should be 51.6 · getting 3.6 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 17.5 to Baylor by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 7.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 7.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 7.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -117 | 48 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -107 | 49 -112 | -1113 | +692 |
All 11 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -117 | 48 -125 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 +101 48¢ | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| BetMGM | -20 -108 | 49.5 -105 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -117 | 48 -125 | -1300 | +795 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -112 | 49.5 -120 | -1115 | +650 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -1200 | +700 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -1350 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -1700 | +890 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -113 | 48 -124 | -1300 | +795 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -107 | 49 -112 | -1113 | +692 |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -125 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Baylor).
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.9 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -529 |
| FPI | -17.0 | -692 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -584 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -656 |
| Market (9 books) | -19.0 | -762 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +19.0 | -103 | +110 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +795 | +772 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -125 | -146 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Baylor Bears since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 6.5.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.9 consensus; total 48.0 here against 49.0 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at IndianaCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says Indiana by 44.5, our data says Indiana by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 44 to Indiana by 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -119 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -110 | 61 +101 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -119 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44.5 -119 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -114 | 61 -114 | — | — |
| BetUS | -44.5 -115 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -115 | 61 +100 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -112 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -44.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -115 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44.5 -111 | 60 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -110 | 61 +101 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F, 47% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $353 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 60.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.0 | — |
| FPI | -41.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.0 | — |
| Massey | -37.0 | — |
| Market (10 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 57.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5 | -101 | -173 | +13.1% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 60.0 here against 60.7 consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa HawkeyesNorthern Iowa at IowaCFB tomorrow 3:00pmNo betmarket says Iowa by 39, our data says Iowa by 36.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa by 39.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Iowa by 40.5 to Iowa by 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Northern Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -108 | 48.5 -111 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Northern Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -110 | 49.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -110 | 48.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -39.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -108 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -108 | 48.5 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Iowa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 47% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -41.5, now -39.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Northern Iowa).
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $494 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Northern Iowa | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Northern Iowa | |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Northern Iowa and Iowa on different scales | |
| Market (9 books) | -39.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Iowa Panthers +39.0 | -110 | +124 | -7.8% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Northern Iowa Panthers since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South CarolinaCFB tomorrow 3:15pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 3.5, our data says South Carolina by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 3.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -117 | 58 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -103 | 58.5 -116 | -177 | +152 |
All 12 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -117 | 58 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -117 | 58 -115 | -180 | +157 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 58.5 -109 | -177 | +143 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 58 -115 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 59 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -4 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -179 | +150 |
| DraftKings | -4 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -113 | 58 -114 | -180 | +157 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -103 | 58.5 -116 | -177 | +152 |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F, 34% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -267 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -165 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (10 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks -3.5 | -117 | +106 | -5.4% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | -180 | -150 | -4.3% |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 58.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App StateCFB tomorrow 5:00pmNo betmarket says App State by 17.5, our data says App State by 17Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says App State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 +100 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -101 | 53 -107 | -1157 | +711 |
All 10 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 +100 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 +100 | 52 -115 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -113 | 51.5 -118 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17 -115 | 53 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -104 | 52.5 -114 | -1050 | +660 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -101 | 52 -114 | -1100 | +709 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -101 | 53 -107 | -1157 | +711 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F, 47% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Charlotte).
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -1032 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -523 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -623 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -495 |
| Market (9 books) | -17.5 | -745 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +17.5 | -120 | +113 | -7.5% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +700 | +698 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsEast Carolina at Old DominionCFB tomorrow 5:00pmNo betmarket says Old Dominion by 3, our data says Old Dominion by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 3, the Nasty Number says Old Dominion by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 2.5 to Old Dominion by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 48 -115 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 49 -108 | -138 | +120 |
All 11 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | East Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 48 -115 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 48 -115 | -147 | +127 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 49.5 -109 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 48.5 -112 | -142 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 49.5 -105 | -142 | +118 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -101 | 48 -114 | -147 | +127 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -114 | 49 -108 | -138 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 77°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -141 here against -129 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -123 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -113 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +111 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.0 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates +3.0 | -115 | -108 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | +122 | +129 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.9 consensus; moneyline -141 here against -129 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware State Hornets at South Florida BullsDelaware State at South FloridaCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says South Florida by 36.5, our data says South Florida by 35Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 36.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Delaware State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -115 | 61.5 -103 | — | — |
All 9 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Delaware State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36.5 -108 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -114 | 61 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36.5 -115 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 61.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -110 | 61.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -36.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -115 | 61.5 -103 | — | — |
Marked: best for the South Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Delaware State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Delaware State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Delaware State | |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4318 |
| Massey | rates Delaware State and South Florida on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -36.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware State Hornets +36.5 | -110 | +139 | -10.5% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Delaware State Hornets since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCFCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says UCF by 17.5, our data says UCF by 18.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from UCF by 20.5 to UCF by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 +100 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18 -102 | 50.5 -101 | -1143 | +705 |
All 10 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 +100 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 +100 | 50 -105 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -17.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | -1115 | +650 |
| BetUS | -17 -110 | 50 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -102 | 49.5 -110 | -1050 | +675 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -106 | 50.5 -105 | -1200 | +720 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 +104 | 50 -103 | -1100 | +709 |
| Pinnacle | -18 -102 | 50.5 -101 | -1143 | +705 |
Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Georgia State).
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4276 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -605 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -1089 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -1036 |
| Market (9 books) | -17.5 | -738 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights -17.5 | +100 | -130 | +6.5% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | -1100 | -821 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersNevada at Middle TennesseeCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Nevada by 3.5, our data says Nevada by 4.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +154 | -180 |
All 12 books
| Middle Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Middle Tennessee ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +149 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 50.5 -114 | +145 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +4 -115 | 50.5 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | +147 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | +152 | -184 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -101 | 50.5 -108 | +149 | -170 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +154 | -180 |
Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee).
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +161 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.5 | +351 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +238 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +144 |
| Market (10 books) | +3.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5 | -115 | -101 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | -170 | -160 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +161 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersTroy at MissouriCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Missouri by 27, our data says Missouri by 26Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -27 -113 | 50.5 -104 | — | +1663 |
All 12 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | — | +1900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -115 | 50 -115 | — | +1592 |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -110 | 50.5 -109 | — | +1700 |
| BetUS | -27 -115 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -115 | 50.5 -105 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -105 | 50.5 -112 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -115 | 50.5 -106 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -111 | 50 -114 | — | +1592 |
| Pinnacle | -27 -113 | 50.5 -104 | — | +1663 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1945 |
| FPI | -23.5 | -1665 |
| Sagarin | -26.5 | -2778 |
| Massey | -23.5 | -1752 |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -1712 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +27.0 | -105 | +142 | -9.9% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +1681 | +2527 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State CowboysMurray State at Oklahoma StateCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Oklahoma State by 55.5, our data says Oklahoma State by 50.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma State by 55.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oklahoma State by 56.5 to Oklahoma State by 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Murray State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -55.5 -110 | 70.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -55.5 -117 | 70.5 -108 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Murray State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -55.5 -110 | 70.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -55.5 -112 | 70.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -55.5 -115 | 70.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -55.5 -110 | 70.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -55.5 -115 | 70 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -56.5 -108 | 70.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -55.5 -122 | 70.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -55.5 -115 | 70.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -55.5 -117 | 70.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 96°F.
Across the books: opened -57.5, now -55.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Murray State).
The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Murray State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Murray State | |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Murray State and Oklahoma State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -55.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 70.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Murray State Racers +55.5 | -110 | -245 | +18.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Murray State Racers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -55.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at RiceCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says Western Michigan by 9.5, our data says Western Michigan by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Western Michigan by 10.5 to Western Michigan by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +270 | -345 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9 -104 | 44 -104 | +308 | -394 |
All 11 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +270 | -345 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -340 76¢ |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -118 | 43.5 -115 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +278 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +8 -108 | 43.5 -120 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +278 | -345 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | +285 | -360 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -110 | 43.5 -114 | +315 | -410 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -106 | 43.5 -114 | +278 | -345 |
| Pinnacle | +9 -104 | 44 -104 | +308 | -394 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Rice). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.1 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +316 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.5 | +320 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +431 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +209 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +221 |
| Market (9 books) | +9.5 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +9.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Rice Owls ML | +270 | +275 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Rice Owls since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.1 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline +282 here against +316 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UConn Huskies at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesUConn at Southern MissCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo betmarket says UConn by 3, our data says UConn by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UConn by 3, the Nasty Number says UConn by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UConn by 3.5 to UConn by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 54 -115 | +134 | -155 |
All 11 books
| Southern Miss spread | Total (over) | Southern Miss ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 54.5 -114 | +130 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 54.5 -112 | +136 | -162 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 54.5 -110 | +136 | -164 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 54.5 -108 | +140 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 54 -115 | +134 | -155 |
Marked: best for the Southern Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 94°F.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +207 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -185 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +146 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +142 |
| Market (9 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 56.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies -3.0 | -115 | -100 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | -160 | -139 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Washington Eagles at Washington HuskiesEastern Washington at WashingtonCFB tomorrow 6:15pmNo betmarket says Washington by 42.5, our data says Washington by 40.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 42.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Eastern Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Eastern Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42.5 -110 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -42.5 -110 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42.5 -112 | 57.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -42.5 -115 | 58 -105 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -112 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -42.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -44.5, now -42.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Eastern Washington).
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $60 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Eastern Washington | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Eastern Washington | |
| Sagarin | -33.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Eastern Washington and Washington on different scales | |
| Market (7 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Eastern Washington Eagles +42.5 | -110 | -191 | +13.3% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Eastern Washington Eagles since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska CornhuskersNorth Dakota at NebraskaCFB tomorrow 6:15pmNo betmarket says Nebraska by 24, our data says Nebraska by 23Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | North Dakota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -24 -106 | 51.5 -106 | -2700 | +978 |
All 10 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | North Dakota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| BetMGM | -24 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -24.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| Bovada | -24 -105 | 51 -115 | -2500 | +1000 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -3200 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -106 | 51.5 -105 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -24 -106 | 51.5 -106 | -2700 | +978 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F, 41% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Dakota | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Dakota | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1057 |
| Massey | rates North Dakota and Nebraska on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -24.0 | -1159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Dakota Fighting Hawks +24.0 | -110 | +130 | -9.0% |
| Moneyline | North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML | +1400 | +1627 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says BYU by 17.5, our data says BYU by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 20 to BYU by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -105 | 53 -112 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +17.5 -106 | 52 -117 | +675 | -1077 |
All 12 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -105 | 53 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | +775 | -1100 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17.5 -105 | 53 -112 | +709 | -1100 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +575 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +17.5 -105 | 53 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| Bovada | +17 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +650 | -1100 |
| Caesars | +17.5 -106 | 53 -110 | +675 | -1200 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +675 | -1050 |
| Fanatics | +17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -106 | 52.5 -112 | +740 | -1250 |
| LowVig.ag | +17.5 -101 | 53 -110 | +709 | -1100 |
| Pinnacle | +17.5 -106 | 52 -117 | +675 | -1077 |
Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +17.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Colorado State).
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1237 |
| FPI | +18.5 | +852 |
| Sagarin | +18.0 | +788 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +918 |
| Market (11 books) | +17.5 | +715 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -17.5 | -115 | -122 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -1100 | -766 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at NorthwesternCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Northwestern by 3, our data says Northwestern by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 3, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 3.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 3.5 to Northwestern by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -125 | 48 -106 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 48 -106 | -169 | +145 |
All 12 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -125 | 48 -106 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -125 | 48 -106 | -170 | +149 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -114 | 48 -110 | -190 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 48 -105 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 48 -105 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -108 | 47.5 -117 | -176 | +149 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 48.5 -105 | -176 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -122 | 48 -104 | -170 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 48 -106 | -169 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -196 |
| FPI | PK | -102 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -302 |
| Massey | rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -3.0 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -3.0 | -125 | -107 | -3.8% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | -170 | -148 | -3.3% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -114 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.5.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at MarylandCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 2.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 3 to Virginia Tech by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -111 | 53.5 -104 | +127 | -146 |
All 12 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | 53.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 53.5 -112 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 53 -115 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -113 | 53.5 -112 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 53.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +126 | -152 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +107 | 53.5 -108 | +125 | -145 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -111 | 53.5 -104 | +127 | -146 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Virginia Tech).
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +131 |
| Sagarin | PK | -101 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (10 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | +103 | +104 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +120 | +126 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 3.5.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.9 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre DameCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says Notre Dame by 28Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30 +100 | 52 -108 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -29 -110 | 52.5 -102 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -29.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30 -109 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -29.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 +100 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5 -112 | 51.5 -118 | — | +1750 |
| DraftKings | -29.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -29.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -29.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -29.5 -106 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30 +100 | 52 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.5 | -3245 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2750 |
| Sagarin | -24.0 | -1786 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1622 |
| Market (11 books) | -29.5 | -2073 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +29.5 | -110 | +134 | -9.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +1800 | +3529 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.8 consensus.
The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at OklahomaCFB tomorrow 6:30pmNo betmarket says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 21Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 44.5 -118 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -21.5 | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22 +100 | 45.5 -109 | -1903 | +1006 |
All 12 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 44.5 -118 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -21.5 | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| BetMGM | -21.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -2000 | +1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -105 | 44.5 -118 | -2100 | +1069 |
| BetRivers | -21.5 -107 | 46 -110 | — | +1300 |
| BetUS | -21.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -2100 | +1075 |
| Bovada | -22 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -108 | 45.5 -105 | -2100 | +1100 |
| Fanatics | -21.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -101 | 44.5 -117 | -2100 | +1069 |
| Pinnacle | -22 +100 | 45.5 -109 | -1903 | +1006 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 96°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners -21.5, only $320 available; Under 44.5, only $369 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.8 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -640 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -726 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1495 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1178 |
| Market (10 books) | -21.5 | -1095 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos +21.5 | -115 | +122 | -8.5% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | +1075 | +1188 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -118 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.8 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at TennesseeCFB tomorrow 6:45pmNo betmarket says Tennessee by 35, our data says Tennessee by 34.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 34.5 to Tennessee by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -115 | 61.5 +100 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -104 | 60 -118 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Kennesaw State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -115 | 61.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -115 | 61.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35.5 -110 | 60 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35.5 -105 | 60 -120 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -106 | 60.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -108 | 60.5 -115 | — | +2200 |
| Fanatics | -35.5 -105 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -102 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -111 | 61.5 +102 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35.5 -104 | 60 -118 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F, 26% chance of rain.
TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.4 consensus.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -33.0 | — |
| FPI | -30.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | — |
| Massey | -35.5 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -35.0 | -2929 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +35.0 | -105 | +149 | -11.0% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +2847 | — | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -120 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.4 consensus; total 61.5 here against 60.3 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCUCFB tomorrow 7:00pmNo betmarket says TCU by 18.5, our data says TCU by 19Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from TCU by 20.5 to TCU by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -19 -108 | 56 -110 | -1228 | +742 |
All 10 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -118 | 56.5 -108 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -115 | 56 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
| BetRivers | -20 -109 | 56.5 -113 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -115 | 56 -110 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 56 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | -1350 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -111 | 56 -108 | -1300 | +795 |
| Pinnacle | -19 -108 | 56 -110 | -1228 | +742 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Arkansas State).
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1122 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -728 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1061 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1587 |
| Market (9 books) | -18.5 | -800 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs -18.5 | -115 | -130 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | -1300 | -909 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.9 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden HurricaneEast Texas A&M at TulsaCFB tomorrow 7:00pmNo betmarket says Tulsa by 42.5, our data says Tulsa by 39Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulsa by 42.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | East Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42.5 -114 | 57.5 -111 | — | — |
All 7 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | East Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Bovada | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -42.5 -108 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42.5 -115 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -42.5 -114 | 57.5 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 95°F.
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate East Texas A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate East Texas A&M | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -2146 |
| Massey | rates East Texas A&M and Tulsa on different scales | |
| Market (6 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Texas A&M Lions +42.5 | -110 | -221 | +16.5% |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at TexasCFB tomorrow 7:00pmNo betmarket says Texas by 30, our data says Texas by 29.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30 -112 | 58 -111 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -30 -108 | 58.5 -108 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30 -110 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -113 | 58 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -30 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -115 | 58 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -102 | 58.5 -105 | — | +2200 |
| LowVig.ag | -30 -106 | 58 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -30 -112 | 58 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2162 |
| FPI | -36.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3703 |
| Massey | -22.5 | -1512 |
| Market (10 books) | -30.0 | -2100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +30.0 | -110 | +147 | -12.0% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +2200 | +4227 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise StateCFB tomorrow 9:00pmNo betmarket says Boise State by 24.5, our data says Boise State by 21Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened -22.5, now -24.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Boise State).
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| FPI | doesn't rate South Dakota | |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -458 |
| Massey | rates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -24.5 | -1176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Dakota Coyotes +24.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | South Dakota Coyotes ML | +1338 | +1213 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at ArizonaCFB tomorrow 9:30pmUnder 50.5should be 49.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 52.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 50.5 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -106 | 50 -114 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 50.5 +100 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -33.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -110 | 50.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34 -108 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34 -110 | 50 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34 -115 | 50.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -118 | 50.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34 -106 | 50.5 +102 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -106 | 50 -114 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -120 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -31.5, now -34.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Arizona).
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4276 |
| FPI | -26.0 | -2535 |
| Sagarin | -27.5 | -3250 |
| Massey | -27.0 | -2912 |
| Market (10 books) | -34.0 | -2755 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +34.0 | -110 | +144 | -11.3% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +4000 | +7359 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -120 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Arizona Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.4.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento StateCFB tomorrow 9:30pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 27, our data says North Dakota State by 25Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26.5 -107 | 50.5 -109 | +1721 | — |
All 10 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +27 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +2200 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -114 | 51 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | +27 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +26.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -102 | 50.5 -118 | +2200 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +2000 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +27 -106 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26.5 -107 | 50.5 -109 | +1721 | — |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +27.5, now +27.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Sacramento State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1752 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1684 |
| Sagarin | +19.0 | +887 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +710 |
| Market (9 books) | +27.0 | +1833 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +27.0 | -110 | +129 | -8.7% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +2000 | +2212 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José StateCFB tomorrow 10:00pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 6.5, our data says Fresno State by 6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 7.5 to Fresno State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -109 | 50 -104 | +195 | -232 |
All 10 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -112 | 49.5 -120 | +210 | -278 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 50 -105 | +205 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -111 | 50 -108 | +192 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -109 | 50 -104 | +195 | -232 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +279 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +233 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +176 |
| Market (9 books) | +6.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -6.5 | -105 | +103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -230 | -200 | -3.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon StateCFB tomorrow 10:00pmNo betmarket says Oregon State by 17, our data says Oregon State by 14.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon State by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 8 points since it opened, from Oregon State by 9.5 to Oregon State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 7.7 toward Oregon State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana | |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -169 |
| Massey | rates Montana and Oregon State on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -17.0 | -638 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana Grizzlies +17.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Montana Grizzlies ML | +599 | +511 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 7.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-14 08:04.
The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLACFB tomorrow 10:00pmNo betmarket says UCLA by 14, our data says UCLA by 13.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 14, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 13.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -118 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 53 -104 | -713 | +496 |
All 12 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -118 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| BetMGM | -14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -118 | 52.5 -115 | -650 | +476 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| Bovada | -14 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -14 -110 | 52.5 -114 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -650 | +470 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 52.5 -105 | -650 | +460 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -114 | 52.5 -114 | -650 | +476 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 53 -104 | -713 | +496 |
Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UCLA). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -285 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -336 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -310 |
| Market (10 books) | -14.0 | -513 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +14.0 | -102 | +101 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +476 | +436 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-13 06:03.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at UMass MinutemenStonehill at MassachusettsCFB tomorrow 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -115 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -33 -108 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33.5 -115 | 49.5 -125 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33 -109 | 48.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -33.5 -108 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -33.5 -108 | 49.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33.5 -115 | 49.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -115 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Stonehill).
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $402 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Massachusetts on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -33.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 5.6.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southeastern Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe WarhawksSoutheastern Louisiana at UL MonroeCFB tomorrow 3:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover Southeastern Louisiana Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Southeastern Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -430 80¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -104 | 48.5 -102 | -429 | +300 |
All 9 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Southeastern Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -430 80¢ | — |
| BetMGM | — | 48.5 -108 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 47.5 -108 | -480 | +340 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 48.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -520 | +385 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -104 | 48.5 -102 | -429 | +300 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana).
Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks -11.5, only $0 available; Southeastern Louisiana Lions +11.5, only $10 available; Over 48.5, only $350 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Massey | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (8 books) | -10.5 | -340 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Southeastern Louisiana Lions since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 0.9.
Southeastern Louisiana Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis TigersUT Martin at MemphisCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UT Martin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -109 | 57 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UT Martin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -115 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35 -115 | 56.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -106 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -115 | 57.5 -125 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -109 | 57 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UT Martin).
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| FPI | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UT Martin | |
| Massey | rates UT Martin and Memphis on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -34.5 | -4536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UT Martin Skyhawks since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.1 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Nicholls State Colonels at Sam Houston State BearkatsNicholls at Sam HoustonCFB tomorrow 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Nicholls).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Nicholls | |
| Massey | rates Nicholls and Sam Houston on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | -17.5 | -669 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Nicholls State Colonels since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.0.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Sep 20
14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.0.Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmTitans +7should be Titans +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.4% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38.5 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 39 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -117 | 40 -103 | +279 | -338 |
All 13 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -107 | 39 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -340 76¢ |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -107 | 39 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| BetRivers | +7 -110 | 39.5 -109 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 39 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +7 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +270 | -340 |
| Caesars | +7 -109 | 39.5 -109 | +270 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| Fanatics | +7 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +7 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -102 | 39 -107 | +274 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -117 | 40 -103 | +279 | -338 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -107 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 95°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +6.0 | +207 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +180 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +189 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +218 |
| Market (11 books) | +7.0 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.0 | -107 | -123 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +265 | +228 | +3.1% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.7.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.3 consensus; total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmFalcons +2.5should be Falcons +1 · getting 1.5 pts · was -1.5▲A Little Nasty · FalconsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Falcons. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 1. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Falcons's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +104 | 43.5 -107 | +130 | -147 |
All 13 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -120 | 43.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +128 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -117 | 43.5 -110 | +120 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -102 | 43.5 -114 | +125 | -148 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +128 | -152 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 43.5 -107 | +128 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +104 | 43.5 -107 | +130 | -147 |
Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Falcons +2.5 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Falcons.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 4.0 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +128 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -139 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -171 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +2.5 | +100 | -107 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +123 | +116 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at CardinalsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmCardinals +4should be Cardinals +4 · was +6A Little Nasty · CardinalsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cardinals. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -112 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -110 | 41.5 +101 | +172 | -198 |
All 13 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -112 | 40.5 -113 | +170 | -200 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| BetMGM | +4 -112 | 41 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -112 | 40.5 -113 | +174 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +4 -113 | 41 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Bovada | +4 -115 | 41 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +4 -114 | 40.5 -118 | +174 | -209 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 40.5 -115 | +180 | -218 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 41 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -120 | 41.5 -102 | +176 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -107 | 40.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -110 | 41.5 +101 | +172 | -198 |
Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +4.0 · -112 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0. The market has moved 2.0 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +254 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | +6.5 | +297 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +162 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +170 | +159 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +4.0 | -112 | -115 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -113 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 48weather: 20 mph wind and 72% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48, for the weather. 20 mph wind and 72% chance of rain, worth about 4.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -116 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 +110 | 48.5 +101 | -213 | +184 |
All 13 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 48 -116 | -215 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| BetMGM | -4.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -110 | 48 -116 | -215 | +183 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -110 | 48.5 -109 | -230 | +185 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -215 | +183 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 48 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -109 | 47.5 -120 | -218 | +183 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -200 | +168 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 -103 | 48 -114 | -215 | +183 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 +110 | 48.5 +101 | -213 | +184 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 69°F, 72% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -5.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Bears). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $324 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings).
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.0 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -203 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -199 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -116 |
| Market (11 books) | -4.5 | -206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -4.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -215 | -173 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -104 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Chicago Bears since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.0 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 2.5, our data says Broncos by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Broncos by 3 to Broncos by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -107 | -153 | +135 |
All 13 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +128 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -110 | -153 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45 -113 | -155 | +130 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | -148 | +126 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 45.5 -107 | -153 | +133 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 45.5 -107 | -153 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F, 36% chance of rain.
Also out: Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos), Jonathon Cooper (LB, Broncos) and 1 more.
Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -111 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +141 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -114 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +128 | +124 | +0.9% |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | -101 | -100 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmRaiders +6.5should be Raiders +6.5 · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +237 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 43 -118 | -295 | +247 |
All 12 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +237 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -108 | -297 | +243 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 43.5 -109 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -295 | +245 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | -297 | +243 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 43 -118 | -295 | +247 |
Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders).
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -209 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -212 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (11 books) | -6.5 | -284 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.5 | -105 | -113 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +237 | +220 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -112 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 9, our data says Ravens by 9Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 46 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 46.5 -105 | -418 | +334 |
All 13 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +101 | 46 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -8 -118 | 46 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +101 | 46 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -435 | +325 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 46 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -105 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 46.5 -108 | -400 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | -430 | +340 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +106 | 46 -107 | -410 | +324 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 46.5 -105 | -418 | +334 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).
Also out: Zach Wood (LS, Saints).
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -392 here against -346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -340 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -295 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.0 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints +9.0 | -121 | -115 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | +300 | +306 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-12 12:03.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.4 consensus; moneyline -392 here against -346 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +110 | 45.5 -111 | -149 | +131 |
All 13 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 45.5 -112 | -152 | +128 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -114 | -136 | +118 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +110 | 45.5 -111 | -149 | +131 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Henry To'oTo'o (LB, Texans) and 1 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -134 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -135 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -161 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | +125 | +135 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -108 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Buccaneers by 9, our data says Buccaneers by 8.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +103 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 +105 | 42 +101 | -407 | +327 |
All 13 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 +103 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 41.5 -105 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 +103 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -8 -113 | 41.5 -109 | -455 | +330 |
| BetUS | -9 +100 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +330 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -435 | +325 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -109 | 41.5 -107 | -420 | +325 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 41.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 +100 | 41.5 -102 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 +108 | 41.5 -107 | -420 | +330 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +105 | 42 +101 | -407 | +327 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Buccaneers). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 1 more.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -402 here against -347 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -290 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -317 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -255 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -208 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.0 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -123 | -119 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +297 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -347 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +143 | -173 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 45 -102 | +149 | -170 |
All 13 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +143 | -173 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 44.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +152 | -173 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 44 -114 | +163 | -200 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 44 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 44.5 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 44.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +162 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 44.5 -107 | +152 | -173 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 45 -102 | +149 | -170 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Jets).
Also out: Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +155 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +134 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +169 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +135 |
| Market (11 books) | +3.0 | +149 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.0 | -116 | +101 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -173 | -144 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward New York Jets since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 +102 | -237 | +203 |
All 13 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -240 | +195 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5 -110 | 41.5 -113 | -235 | +194 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 41.5 -112 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -120 | 41.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -105 | 41.5 -107 | -240 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -102 | 42 +102 | -237 | +203 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Patriots).
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), DeShon Elliott (S, Steelers).
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus.
TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -187 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -187 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -166 |
| Market (11 books) | -5.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -5.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -240 | -186 | -5.6% |
| Total | Under 41.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 50 -121 | -202 | +175 |
All 13 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -4.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -4 -113 | 51 -107 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -4 -111 | 50.5 -112 | -209 | +175 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 50.5 -112 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -102 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +172 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -105 | 50.5 -104 | -205 | +177 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 50 -121 | -202 | +175 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys) and 2 more.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -161 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -182 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -172 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (11 books) | -4.0 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.0 | -110 | +112 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -205 | -164 | -5.1% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -107 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says 49ers by 13, our data says 49ers by 13Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +102 | -1008 | +681 |
All 13 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -116 52¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -900 | +650 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | -1050 | +686 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 45.5 -109 | -1000 | +600 |
| BetUS | -13 -115 | 45 -105 | -1050 | +680 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 45 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -13 -112 | 44.5 -115 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -900 | +600 |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 45 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 45.5 -102 | -950 | +640 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -105 | 45 -102 | -1050 | +686 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 +100 | 45.5 +102 | -1008 | +681 |
Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Also out: Kyle Louis (LB, Dolphins).
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.3 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -438 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -731 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -658 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -321 |
| Market (11 books) | -13.0 | -696 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -13.0 | -115 | -109 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -1000 | -538 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pmNo betmarket says Chiefs by 6.5, our data says Chiefs by 6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 46.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 47 +101 | -290 | +244 |
All 13 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 46.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| BetMGM | — | 46.5 -108 | -300 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 46.5 -105 | -300 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -117 | 47 -106 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 46.5 -107 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 46.5 -102 | -300 | +245 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +108 | 47 +101 | -290 | +244 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -287 here against -259 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -245 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -263 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -217 |
| Market (11 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 | -116 | +109 | -5.9% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -300 | -229 | -5.4% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus; moneyline -287 here against -259 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 21
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -335 | +260 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 48.5 +101 | -331 | +282 |
All 13 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -335 | +260 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 48 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -335 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -335 | +272 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Caesars | -7 -117 | 48 -112 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings | -7 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -375 | +295 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 48 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -104 | 47.5 -118 | -340 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -109 | 48 -107 | -335 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -111 | 48.5 +101 | -331 | +282 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Giants).
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -7.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Myles Garrett (DE, Rams).
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -281 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -285 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -252 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -321 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -7.0 | -115 | +115 | -6.9% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -335 | -244 | -6.1% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at PackersNFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Packers by 6, our data says Packers by 6.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
All 5 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -305 | +245 |
| Caesars | — | 46.5 -106 | -295 | +240 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -6.5, only $2 available; Atlanta Falcons +6.5, only $267 available; Under 46.5, only $273 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -254 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -210 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -196 |
| Market (4 books) | -6.0 | -251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -6.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -295 | -218 | -6.1% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Sep 26
4 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amWestern Michigan +7should be Western Michigan +7WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +7.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +209 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +175 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +274 |
| Market (2 books) | +7.0 | +236 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +7.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +222 | +206 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Ohio State by 26.5, our data says Ohio State by 25.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1887 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3465 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1038 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1188 |
| Market (1 books) | -26.5 | -1663 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +26.5 | -110 | +135 | -9.8% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1600 | +2240 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amOver 56.5should be 57.9 · getting 1.4 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -239 69¢ |
All 4 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -239 69¢ |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 | +170 | -215 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 56.5 -115 | +160 | -194 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +132 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +297 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +123 |
| Market (3 books) | +5.0 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers +5.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | +160 | +162 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 12:30pmNo betmarket says UCLA by 1.5, our data says UCLA by 1WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins ML, only $0 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +117 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (1 books) | +1.5 | +107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | -102 | +109 | -2.7% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games
Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game
Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty12-1250%-1.08 units24 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 7. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 2-1 | 66.7% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 0-1 | 0.0% | -1.0 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 12-12 | 50.0% | -1.1 u | |
| Not Nasty | 73 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-18 09:06.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 91 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 9.96 | 54 |
| The market | 10.94 | 91 |
| SP+ | 11.13 | 54 |
| Sagarin | 13.63 | 81 |
| Massey | 23.08 | 10 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 54 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 3.72 | 10 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 54 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 81 |
The line archive, 91 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 43 times, against it 35, and sat still 13. Our side taken at the open finished 0.41 points better than the close on average over 87 games. The close misses the final by 10.81, the open by 10.94, our raw ratings number by 14.27, Pinnacle's close by 10.73. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.94, MyBookie.ag 10.40, Pinnacle 10.73.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 17 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.02 | 2 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.09 | 17 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-14). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 1 | 18.75 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 1 | 18.90 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 1 | 18.59 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 1 | 18.69 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 1 | 18.69 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 1 | 18.69 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 1 | 18.80 | 19.06 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wyoming at Central Michigan | Under | 40 | 40 | +0.0 | same side |
| Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons | Over | 44.5 | 44.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans | Over | 46.5 | 46.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Cleveland +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Green Bay Packers at New York Jets | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Las Vegas +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears | Minnesota +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens | New Orleans +9 | 9 | 9 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals | Over | 41 | 41 | +0.0 | flipped |
| Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys | Over | 50.5 | 50.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams | New York +7 | 7 | 7 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 42 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.1 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 5 | 7.0 | 1-3 (25%) | — |
| Massey | 10 | 10.0 | 1-4 (20%) | 0-2 (0%) |
| The blend | 10 | 10.2 | 1-4 (20%) | 0-2 (0%) |
NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 3 | 6.1 | 3-0 (100%) | — |
| FPI | 1 | 18.6 | — | — |
| The blend | 3 | 6.7 | 2-0 (100%) | — |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 5 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 94 games across 11 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 11 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.
Since 1:18pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public
- → 1.0Delaware State Hornets at South Florida Bullstoward Delaware State Hornetsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 56 | 10.01 |
| The market | 108 | 10.97 |
| SP+ | 54 | 11.13 |
| Sagarin | 98 | 13.30 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 46-56 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 625518 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.18 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 83 | 1.89 |
| LowVig.ag | 192 | 1.33 |
| DraftKings | 212 | 1.33 |
| BetOnline.ag | 198 | 1.32 |
| Caesars | 162 | 1.30 |
| FanDuel | 241 | 1.25 |
| BetRivers | 231 | 1.19 |
| BetUS | 144 | 1.15 |
| BetMGM | 195 | 1.12 |
| MyBookie.ag | 146 | 1.08 |
| Fanatics | 179 | 1.03 |
| TOM | 183 | 1.01 |
| Bovada | 198 | 0.98 |
| Pinnacle | 193 | 0.94 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 5 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago