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Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 6:03 am · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now
College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pmFPITue 4:30pmSagarinTue 8:15amMasseySun 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 172 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloSun 6:02amFPISun 6:02amSagarinMon 2:55pmMasseySat 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 4 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 18 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Jets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck

Buck's Take

Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Same opinion as a Nasty Pick, one thing short.

Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Saints at Lions Under 50 the strongest at 2.4% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one.

Since the last build, Falcons at Steelers slipped to A Little Nasty.

If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Small stake, and it can lose.

Buck

Today

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.
GameThe call
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans
NFL 12:00pm
Titans PK
should be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Titans →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Titans by 33.1 pts our side
FPI
Titans by 32.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Titans by 4.54.4 pts our side
Massey
Titans by 22.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Titans by 10.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Titans by 1opened a pick'emnow a pick'emSunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
44.66.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.66.1 pts over the market
Over 38.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.6opened 39.4now 38.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101
All 14 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
BetMGM-1.5 -10838.5 -110-120+100
BetOnline.agPK -11638.5 -110
BetRivers-1.5 -10838.5 -109-120-103
BetUSPK -12038.5 -110
Bovada-1 -11039 -110-115-105
Caesars-1.5 -10638.5 -112-118+100
DraftKings-1.5 -10538.5 -112-120+100
Fanatics-1 -11038.5 -115-120+100
FanDuel-1.5 -10838.5 -110-118+100
LowVig.agPK -11238.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-1 -11038.5 -110-120-102
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans PK · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · -119
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48.
Not Nasty
the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 6.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.

Full detail
We settle onTitans by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-146
FPI-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.5-171
Massey-2.0-129
Market (12 books)PK-106
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.544.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans PK-116-111-1.0%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-119-111-1.7%
TotalOver 38.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers
NFL 12:00pm
Over 41
should be 41.4 · getting 0.4 pts · was 42
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Steelers by 6, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Steelers by 6TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 5.50.4 pts our side
FPI
Steelers by 51.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Steelers by 41.9 pts our side
Massey
Steelers by 23.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Steelers by 5.50.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Falcons. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 5.5opened Steelers by 3now Steelers by 6SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
43.12.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.12.1 pts over the market
Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 41.9now 41SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-6 -11541 -110-290+230
Kalshi-6.5 -107 50¢40.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
Pinnacle-6.5 -10141 -105-287+248
All 14 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-6 -11541 -110-290+230
Kalshi-6.5 -107 50¢40.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
BetMGM-6.5 -11241 -108-300+240
BetOnline.ag-6 -11541 -110-290+237
BetRivers-6.5 -10741 -109-286+220
BetUS-6.5 -11040.5 -110-290+240
Bovada-6.5 -10541 -110-290+240
Caesars-6.5 -10640.5 -117-295+235
DraftKings-6.5 -10840.5 -118-290+235
Fanatics-6.5 -10541 -110-300+240
FanDuel-6.5 -10540.5 -118-310+250
LowVig.ag-6 -11041 -107-290+237
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11041 -110-290+226
Pinnacle-6.5 -10141 -105-287+248

Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +6.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · +230 at TOM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29.
Not Nasty
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.5-199
FPI-5.0-179
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-130
Market (12 books)-6.0-278
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+230+200+3.0%
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +6.0-105-115+2.4%
TotalOver 41.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 15:31; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.5 consensus.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings
NFL 3:25pm
Under 46
should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 1TOM, -125
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 1on the market
FPI
Packers by 12.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Packers by 0.51.5 pts our side
Massey
Vikings by 21 pts against us
Nasty Number
Vikings by 0.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Packers. Massey at Vikings by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 0.5opened Vikings by 1now Vikings by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
41.64.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.64.4 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 46.2now 46SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12546 -110-132+112
Kalshi-2.5 -103 49¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113
All 14 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12546 -110-132+112
Kalshi-2.5 -103 49¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
BetMGM-2 -10846.5 -108-130+110
BetOnline.ag-1 -12546 -110-132+112
BetRivers-2 -10846 -113-127+105
BetUS-1 -12046 -110-125+105
Bovada-2 -11046 -110-130+110
Caesars-1.5 -11346 -110-129+109
DraftKings-2.5 -10546.5 -105-130+110
Fanatics-2 -11046 -110-130+110
FanDuel-1.5 -11046.5 -108-126+108
LowVig.ag-1 -12146 -107-132+112
MyBookie.ag-2 -11046 -110-127+104
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113

Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers +1.0 · +105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · +112 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 42. That's 4.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+1.0+116
Sagarin+0.5+106
Massey-2.0-128
Market (12 books)-1.0-126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.041.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML+112+109+0.6%
SpreadGreen Bay Packers +1.0+105+103+0.4%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans
NFL 12:00pm
Over 44.5
should be 45 · getting 0.5 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Bills by 1TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 1
FPI
Bills by 0.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Texans by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 0.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 0.5opened a pick'emnow Bills by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
46.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.92.4 pts over the market
Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.9opened 44.5now 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 -11044.5 -110-105-115
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
Pinnacle+1 -10145 +102+105-116
All 14 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 -11044.5 -110-105-115
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
BetMGM+1 -10844.5 -108+100-120
BetOnline.ag+1 -11044.5 -110-105-115
BetRivers+1.5 -11344.5 -113+100-121
BetUS+1 -10544.5 -110-105-115
Bovada+1.5 -11544.5 -110+100-120
Caesars+1.5 -11244.5 -109+100-118
DraftKings+1.5 -11244.5 -110-108-112
Fanatics+1 -11044.5 -110+100-120
FanDuel+1.5 -11544.5 -110-104-112
LowVig.ag+1 -10544.5 -107-105-115
MyBookie.ag+1 -11044.5 -110-103-118
Pinnacle+1 -10145 +102+105-116

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans +1.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Texans to win · -105 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -100 here against +108 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 0.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+0.5+104
SagarinPK+100
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+1.0-100
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.546.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans +1.0-110+103-3.1%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML-105+109-3.4%
TotalOver 44.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus; moneyline -100 here against +108 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers
NFL 12:00pm
Under 47
should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Bears by 3TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 2
FPI
Bears by 2
Sagarin
Bears by 2
Massey
Panthers by 1.5
Nasty Number
Bears by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 2.5now Bears by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
43.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.23.8 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.2opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -11047 -110+137-167
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
Pinnacle+3 -10847.5 +101+144-163
All 14 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -11047 -110+137-167
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
BetMGM+3 -10547 -110+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11047 -110+147-167
BetRivers+3 -10747 -110+140-175
BetUS+3 -10547 -110+142-165
Bovada+3 -11547 -110+140-165
Caesars+3 -10647 -113+142-170
DraftKings+3 -10247.5 -110+140-166
Fanatics+3 -11047 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3 -10547.5 -102+150-178
LowVig.ag+3 -10547 -107+147-167
MyBookie.ag+3 -11047 -110+139-171
Pinnacle+3 -10847.5 +101+144-163

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +137 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 88°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+125
FPI+2.0+127
Sagarin+2.0+129
Massey-1.5-123
Market (12 books)+3.0+143
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers +3.0-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+137+140-0.5%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions
NFL 12:00pm
Under 50
should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Lions →
Market
Lions by 7TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 9
FPI
Lions by 7.5
Sagarin
Lions by 7.5
Massey
Lions by 2.5
Nasty Number
Lions by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 7opened Lions by 7now Lions by 7SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
44.95.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.95.1 pts under the market
Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 49.9now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +109 46¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
Pinnacle-7 -10749.5 -113-328+272
All 14 books
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +109 46¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
BetMGM-7 -10849.5 -110-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -10850 -110-310+252
BetRivers-7 -11049.5 -113-345+265
BetUS-7 -11050 -110-310+255
Bovada-7 -11050 +100-340+270
Caesars-7 -10649.5 -117-320+250
DraftKings-7 -11049.5 -112-325+260
Fanatics-7 -11049.5 -110-330+260
FanDuel-6.5 -12249.5 -115-335+270
LowVig.ag-7 -10350 -107-310+252
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050 -110-330+250
Pinnacle-7 -10749.5 -113-328+272

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -7.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -310 at TOM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 5.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-305
FPI-7.5-251
Sagarin-7.5-260
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-7.0-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.044.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -7.0-107+115-5.3%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-310-243-4.8%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers
NFL 3:25pm
Under 47
should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 9.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 9
FPI
Chargers by 10.5
Sagarin
Chargers by 14
Massey
Chargers by 2
Nasty Number
Chargers by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 9.5opened Chargers by 10now Chargers by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
42.54.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.54.5 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-510+360
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -113-480+376
All 13 books
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-510+360
BetMGM-9.5 -11247.5 -105-500+400
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10547 -115-510+390
BetRivers-9 -11247 -113-480+350
BetUS-9.5 -10546.5 -110-510+395
Bovada-9 -11047.5 -105-500+360
Caesars-9.5 -10847 -113-530+400
DraftKings-9.5 -11547.5 -105-520+390
Fanatics-9 -11047.5 -105-500+370
FanDuel-9.5 -10547.5 -104-490+380
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10047 -113-510+390
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11047 -110-505+356
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -113-480+376

Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers -9.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chargers to win · -510 at TOM
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline -488 here against -397 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-307
FPI-10.5-367
Sagarin-14.0-618
Massey-2.0-131
Market (12 books)-9.5-488
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Chargers -9.5-105+109-3.4%
MoneylineLos Angeles Chargers ML-510-331priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-105-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 19:42.

TOM: moneyline -488 here against -397 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Ravens by 3TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 2
FPI
Ravens by 2
Sagarin
Ravens by 3
Massey
Colts by 2
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 3opened Ravens by 3.5now Ravens by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 48now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10848 -110+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+3 +10147.5 -114+150-167
All 14 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10848 -110+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3 -10547.5 -110+145-175
BetOnline.ag+3 -10848 -110+145-165
BetRivers+3 -10548 -108+143-175
BetUS+3 +10048 -110+142-165
Bovada+3 -10548 -105+145-170
Caesars+3 -10547.5 -117+144-170
DraftKings+3.5 -12047.5 -115+145-175
Fanatics+3 -10548 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3.5 -12047.5 -114+148-176
LowVig.ag+3 -10348 -107+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048 -110+132-162
Pinnacle+3 +10147.5 -114+150-167

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +155 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+128
FPI+2.0+124
Sagarin+3.0+148
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.0-108-105-0.8%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+135+140-0.9%
TotalOver 48.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +155 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 3.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 4.5
FPI
Bengals by 3.5
Sagarin
Bengals by 4
Massey
Bengals by 2
Nasty Number
Bengals by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 3.5opened Bengals by 4now Bengals by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
48.51.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.51.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 50.5now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11650 -112-205+165
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+166 36¢
Pinnacle-4 +10050 -108-195+173
All 14 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11650 -112-205+165
Kalshi-3.5 -112 51¢50.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+166 36¢
BetMGM-3.5 -11550.5 -110-210+170
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11650 -112-205+177
BetRivers-4 -11050.5 -109-210+170
BetUS-4 -11050 -110-205+175
Bovada-3.5 -11550 -110-210+175
Caesars-3.5 -11150.5 -109-205+171
DraftKings-3.5 -11250.5 -108-198+164
Fanatics-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+170
FanDuel-3.5 -11850.5 -110-210+176
LowVig.ag-3.5 -11250 -109-205+177
MyBookie.ag-4 -11050.5 -110-214+171
Pinnacle-4 +10050 -108-195+173

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -3.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · -205 at TOM
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-171
FPI-3.5-158
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-3.5-196
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.048.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals -3.5-116+111-6.3%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML-205-155-6.4%
TotalUnder 50.0-108-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars
NFL 12:00pm
No bet
market says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 9.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Jaguars by 9
FPI
Jaguars by 8.5
Sagarin
Jaguars by 9.5
Massey
Jaguars by 2.5
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jaguars by 9.5opened Jaguars by 8now Jaguars by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM
The Four
Massey
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.3opened 40.5now 40SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10540 -112-405+295
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+351 21¢
Pinnacle-9.5 +10140.5 +101-421+349
All 14 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10540 -112-405+295
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+351 21¢
BetMGM-9 -11040 -110-450+340
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10540 -112-405+320
BetRivers-8.5 -11240.5 -107-435+320
BetUS-9.5 -10540 -110-400+320
Bovada-9 -11040 -110-450+335
Caesars-9.5 -10439.5 -127-420+325
DraftKings-8.5 -11239.5 -118-455+350
Fanatics-9 -11040 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -11240.5 -102-460+360
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10040 -109-405+320
MyBookie.ag-9 -11040 -110-490+360
Pinnacle-9.5 +10140.5 +101-421+349

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +295 at TOM
We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.0 · -112 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-311
FPI-8.5-289
Sagarin-9.5-334
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-9.5-388
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.041.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.5-115-113-0.5%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+295+320-1.5%
TotalOver 40.0-112-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders
NFL 3:25pm
No bet
market says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Raiders by 3TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Raiders by 5
FPI
Raiders by 3.5
Sagarin
Raiders by 5.5
Massey
Raiders by 2
Nasty Number
Raiders by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Raiders by 3opened Raiders by 3.5now Raiders by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40.5TOM
The Four
Massey
410.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
410.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41opened 40.5now 40.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -105-160+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -103 49¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3 -11040.5 -105-165+145
All 14 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -105-160+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -103 49¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
BetMGM-3 -11240.5 -105-175+145
BetOnline.ag-3 -11340.5 -105-160+140
BetRivers-3 -11440.5 -107-159+130
BetUS-3 -11540 -110-160+138
Bovada-3 -11540.5 +100-170+145
Caesars-3 -11040.5 -106-170+140
DraftKings-3 -11240.5 -105-170+142
Fanatics-3 -11540.5 -105-170+140
FanDuel-3 -11239.5 -118-164+138
LowVig.ag-3 -10840.5 -102-160+140
MyBookie.ag-3 -12040 -110-171+139
Pinnacle-3 -11040.5 -105-165+145

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders -3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · -160 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.

Full detail
We settle onRaiders by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-179
FPI-3.5-152
Sagarin-5.5-202
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-3.0-153
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.541.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders -3.0-113-102-2.7%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML-160-148-1.8%
TotalOver 40.5-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles
NFL 3:25pm
No bet
market says Eagles by 5.5, our data says Eagles by 5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Eagles by 5.5TOM, -109
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 6
FPI
Eagles by 5.5
Sagarin
Eagles by 6.5
Massey
Eagles by 2.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 5.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5.5opened Eagles by 5now Eagles by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Eagles by 5 to Eagles by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
Massey
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 44.4now 44SunMonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5.5 -10944 -108-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +105 47¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10844.5 -101-248+212
All 14 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5.5 -10944 -108-245+195
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +105 47¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
BetMGM-5.5 -11244.5 -105-250+200
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10944 -108-245+203
BetRivers-5.5 -11044.5 -106-250+205
BetUS-5.5 -11044 -110-245+205
Bovada-5.5 -11044 -110-250+210
Caesars-5.5 -11044 -113-245+200
DraftKings-6 -10844.5 -105-245+200
Fanatics-5.5 -11044 -110-260+210
FanDuel-5.5 -11244.5 -105-260+215
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10444 -105-245+203
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11044.5 -110-248+196
Pinnacle-5.5 -10844.5 -101-248+212

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles -5.5 · -109 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · -245 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Eagles).

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles) and 7 more.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-207
FPI-5.5-195
Sagarin-6.5-218
Massey-2.5-135
Market (12 books)-5.5-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.044.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -5.5-109+108-4.0%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-245-197-4.7%
TotalOver 44.0-108-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-06 17:09.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants
NFL 7:20pm
No bet
market says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cowboys by 3TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Cowboys by 1.5
FPI
Cowboys by 1.5
Sagarin
Cowboys by 2
Massey
Giants by 2
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 2.5opened Cowboys by 3now Cowboys by 3SunTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 47.9now 48SunTueWedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11048 -110+135-160
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -119+147-167
All 14 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11048 -110+135-160
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3 -11048 -110+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11048 -110+140-160
BetRivers+3 -11448 -109+132-157
BetUS+3 -11048 -110+138-160
Bovada+3 -11048 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -11148 -110+138-164
DraftKings+3 -11548.5 -105+136-162
Fanatics+3 -11048 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3 -11248.5 -105+134-158
LowVig.ag+3 -10548 -107+140-160
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048 -110+135-167
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -119+147-167

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +3.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+122
FPI+1.5+122
Sagarin+2.0+131
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +3.0-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+135+137-0.4%
TotalOver 48.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tomorrow

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs
NFL tomorrow 7:15pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.4 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 3.50.8 pts our side
FPI
Chiefs by 30.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Chiefs by 30.3 pts our side
Massey
Chiefs by 20.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 2.50.1 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Chiefs. Massey at Chiefs by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 2.5opened Chiefs by 2.5now Chiefs by 2.5WedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
39.24.3 pts under the market
Weather
-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off
Nasty Number
38.25.3 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.2opened 43.5now 43.5WedThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11043.5 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -107 50¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +102-138+122
All 14 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11043.5 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -107 50¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
BetMGM-2.5 -11043.5 -110-135+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11043.5 -110-138+118
BetRivers-2.5 -11843.5 -108-148+120
BetUS-2 -12043.5 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11043.5 -105-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -10943.5 -112-137+117
DraftKings-2.5 -11243.5 -110-135+114
Fanatics-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11043.5 -112-134+114
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10543.5 -107-138+118
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11043.5 -110-139+113
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +102-138+122

Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -138 at TOM
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 39. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-150
FPI-3.0-146
Sagarin-3.0-141
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-2.5-132
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.538.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -2.5-110-111+0.1%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-138-137-0.2%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Thu Sep 17

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at Pittsburgh
CFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm
Syracuse +10
should be Syracuse +8 · getting 2 pts · was +10.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 10, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 8. 2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Pittsburgh →
Market
Pittsburgh by 10
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Massey
Pittsburgh by 36.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Pittsburgh by 82 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Syracuse. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Pittsburgh by 8opened Pittsburgh by 11.5now Pittsburgh by 9.5FriSat

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Syracuse is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
53.30.7 pts under the market
Massey
52.31.7 pts under the market
Weather
-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.82.2 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 58.5now 54.5FriSatSun

The total has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 4 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLSyracuse ML
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢
All 3 books
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLSyracuse ML
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢
DraftKings-10.5 -11253.5 -112-380+300
FanDuel-9.5 -11054.5 -110-335+265

Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse +10.0 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Syracuse to win · +282
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Syracuse loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 2.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Syracuse +10.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Syracuse, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -10.5, only $2 available; Syracuse Orange +10.5, only $13 available; Under 54.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onPittsburgh by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPIhasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
Massey-3.0-140
Market (2 books)-10.0-298
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSyracuse Orange +10.0-110-135+5.0%
MoneylineSyracuse Orange ML+282+235+3.7%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-10 10:21; total has moved down 5.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills
NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm
Lions +3.5
should be Lions +3.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 3.5
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 3
FPI
Bills by 3.5
Sagarin
Bills by 4
Massey
Bills by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 3.5opened Bills by 3now Bills by 3ThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
Massey
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 51.5now 51.5ThuFriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.5 -107 50¢51.5 -112 51¢-182 63¢
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11551.5 -105
All 10 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.5 -107 50¢51.5 -112 51¢-182 63¢
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11551.5 -105
BetRivers-3 -11252.5 -109-175+140
BetUS-3.5 -11551.5 -105
Caesars-3.5 -11251.5 -115-170+144
DraftKings-3 -11551.5 -115-166+140
Fanatics-3.5 -11052 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 -11052.5 -110-196+164
LowVig.ag-3.5 -11051.5 -102
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11051.5 -110-174+136

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions +3.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Lions to win · +140
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110
Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Lions +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F, 41% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions +3.5, only $1 available; Under 51.5, only $5 available; Detroit Lions ML, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-141
FPI-3.5-153
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-129
Market (9 books)-3.5-155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions +3.5-110-114+1.0%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML+140+150-1.7%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 18

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas Tech
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 7:00pm
Houston +10
should be Houston +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +13.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 10, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 8.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →
Market
Texas Tech by 10
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
Massey
Texas Tech by 2.57 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 8.51.5 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Houston. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 8.5opened Texas Tech by 13.5now Texas Tech by 9.5ThuFriSatSun

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Houston is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
SP+ pace
53.91.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.82.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.32.3 pts over the market
Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.3opened 51.5now 52.5ThuFriSatSun

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLHouston ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-404 79¢
All 3 books
Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLHouston ML
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-404 79¢
DraftKings-10 -11251.5 -108-485+370
FanDuel-9.5 -11452.5 -115-365+285

Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +10.0 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Houston to win · +323
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston +10.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F, 40% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 3.8 toward Houston, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars +9.5, only $4 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 8.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
FPIhasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
Massey-2.5-133
Market (2 books)-10.0-342
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.054.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Cougars +10.0-110-130+4.1%
MoneylineHouston Cougars ML+323+243priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 0.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake Forest
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Miami by 22, our data says Miami by 15
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 22.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Miami by 22
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Massey
Wake Forest by 1.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 157 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 15opened Miami by 19.5now Miami by 22.5ThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami by 19.5 to Miami by 22.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
43.610.2 pts under the market
Massey
56.12.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.94 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 52.5now 54.5ThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLMiami ML
Kalshi53.5 -107 50¢+1074 -1684 94¢
All 4 books
Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLMiami ML
Kalshi53.5 -107 50¢+1074 -1684 94¢
BetMGM+21.5 -10853.5 -112+1050-1600
DraftKings+22.5 -11254.5 -108+1000-1800
FanDuel+21.5 -11553.5 -110+920-1800

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +22.0 · -110
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Wake Forest to win · +1024
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +21.5, only $330 available; Miami Hurricanes -21.5, only $104 available; Under 53.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 23 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPIhasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
Massey-1.5-115
Market (3 books)+22.0+1028
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.049.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons +22.0-110-173+10.9%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML+1024+528priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 1.3.

The line is +22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 19

43 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at Rice
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Under 48.5
should be 46.6 · getting 1.9 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 7, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Rice →
Market
Western Michigan by 10.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
Massey
Rice by 1.512.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Western Michigan by 73.6 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Rice. The Nasty Number is 3.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 12 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
39.39.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.36.2 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi-430 80¢
Rice +10.5 · -110
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Rice to win · +340
We make it 32 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. That's 6.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +10.5, only $2 available; Western Michigan Broncos -10.5, only $2 available; Rice Owls ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Michigan by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
FPIhasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
Massey-1.5-118
Market (1 books)+10.5+360
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.542.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +10.5-110-162+9.4%
MoneylineRice Owls ML+340+208priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida Atlantic
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm
Florida International +8.5
should be Florida International +6.5 · getting 2 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 6.5. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 8.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 2.56.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 6.51.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Florida International. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5
The Four
SP+ pace
65.95.4 pts over the market
Massey
60.10.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
632.5 pts over the market
Over 60.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLFlorida International ML
Kalshi
Florida International +8.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Florida International to win · +265
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Florida International loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 60.5 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 2.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida International +8.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls -8.5, only $2 available; Florida International Panthers +8.5, only $2 available; Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPIhasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
Massey-2.5-129
Market (1 books)-8.5-281
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.563.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFlorida International Panthers +8.5-110-139+5.8%
MoneylineFlorida International Panthers ML+265+204+5.5%
TotalOver 60.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at Louisiana
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
UAB to win
our data says 33 in 100 · +270 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 6.5. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Louisiana →
Market
Louisiana by 8.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
FPI
hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
Massey
Louisiana by 2.56 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 6.51.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean UAB. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
66.59 pts over the market
Massey
61.33.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
63.96.4 pts over the market
Over 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Louisiana spreadTotal (over)Louisiana MLUAB ML
Kalshi
UAB +8.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Same call
UAB to win · +270
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: UAB loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
A Little Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 61. That's 6.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UAB to win · +270. A price bet, UAB loses more often than not.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $6 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
FPIhasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
Massey-2.5-130
Market (1 books)-8.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.563.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineUAB Blazers ML+270+204+5.8%
SpreadUAB Blazers +8.5-110-139+5.8%
TotalOver 57.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at Cincinnati
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Cincinnati by 14.5, our data says Cincinnati by 11
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cincinnati by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Cincinnati by 11, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Cincinnati by 14.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
Massey
Cincinnati by 3.511.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Cincinnati by 113.4 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Miami (OH). The Nasty Number is 3.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 11 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
48.7on the market
Massey
51.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.21.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLMiami (OH) ML
Kalshi
Miami (OH) +14.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Miami (OH) to win · +500
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 83°F, 33% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5, only $250 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5, only $38 available; Cincinnati Bearcats ML, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onCincinnati by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
FPIhasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
Massey-3.5-142
Market (1 books)-14.5-527
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami (OH) RedHawks +14.5-110-137+5.4%
MoneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks ML+500+337priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&M
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Over 48.5
should be 49.2 · getting 0.7 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas A&M by 15, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 11.5, but the raw ratings sit 12 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore Texas A&M →
Market
Texas A&M by 15
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Massey
Texas A&M by 311.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas A&M by 11.53.6 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Kentucky. The Nasty Number is 3.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 12 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas A&M by 11.5opened Texas A&M by 14.5now Texas A&M by 14.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
50.21.7 pts over the market
Massey
51.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.92.4 pts over the market
Over 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.9opened 48.5now 48.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLKentucky ML
Kalshi-14.5 -116 52¢48.5 -116 52¢-788 88¢+573 14¢
All 4 books
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLKentucky ML
Kalshi-14.5 -116 52¢48.5 -116 52¢-788 88¢+573 14¢
BetMGM-15 -11048.5 -108-750+575
DraftKings-15.5 -11048.5 -102-850+575
FanDuel-14.5 -11548.5 -115-820+550

Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +15.0 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Kentucky to win · +575
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +14.5, only $204 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas A&M by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPIhasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
Massey-3.0-139
Market (3 books)-15.0-593
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +15.0-110-137+5.4%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+575+348priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West Virginia
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
West Virginia to win
our data says 32 in 100 · +275 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 7, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 9.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Massey
West Virginia by 1.511.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia by 72.3 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 11 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 7opened Virginia by 8.5now Virginia by 9.5SatSun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.47.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.54 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.5opened 53.5now 53.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLVirginia ML
Kalshi+9.5 -121 53¢53.5 -116 52¢
All 3 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLVirginia ML
Kalshi+9.5 -121 53¢53.5 -116 52¢
DraftKings+9.5 -11053.5 -112+280-355
FanDuel+9.5 -10653.5 -115+270-345

Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia +9.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
West Virginia to win · +275
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: West Virginia loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
A Little Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. That's 4.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia to win · +275. A price bet, West Virginia loses more often than not.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $2 available; West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $148 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $316 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPIhasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
Massey-1.5-119
Market (2 books)+9.5+292
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.549.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers +9.5-110-137+5.4%
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML+275+215+5.1%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm
San José State to win
our data says 40 in 100 · +195 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 4, but the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore San José State →
Market
Fresno State by 6.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
Massey
San José State by 28.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 42.5 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean San José State. The Nasty Number is 2.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 8 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.19.4 pts under the market
Massey
503.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
47.16.4 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
San José State +6.5 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
San José State to win · +195
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 34. That's value. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: San José State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
A Little Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 6.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State to win · +195. A price bet, San José State loses more often than not.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
FPIhasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
Massey-2.0-122
Market (1 books)+6.5+208
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.547.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineSan Jose State Spartans ML+195+152+5.7%
SpreadSan Jose State Spartans +6.5-110-135+5.0%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLA
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm
Over 52.5
should be 53.1 · getting 0.6 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 9.5, but the raw ratings sit 9 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore UCLA →
Market
UCLA by 12.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
Massey
UCLA by 39.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
UCLA by 9.52.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Purdue. The Nasty Number is 2.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 9 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
54.62.1 pts over the market
Massey
54.72.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.62.1 pts over the market
Over 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLPurdue ML
Kalshi
Purdue +12.5 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Purdue to win · +390
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: UCLA Bruins ML, only $4 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
FPIhasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
Massey-3.0-139
Market (1 books)-12.5-412
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.554.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +12.5-110-133+4.7%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+390+285priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at Liberty
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Under 57.5
should be 55.6 · getting 1.9 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 10, but the raw ratings sit 11 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Liberty →
Market
Liberty by 13.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
Massey
Liberty by 2.510.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Liberty by 103.3 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Ball State. The Nasty Number is 3.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 11 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.74.8 pts under the market
Massey
49.67.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.16.4 pts under the market
Under 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Ball State +13.5 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Ball State to win · +450
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 6.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 36% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onLiberty by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
FPIhasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
Massey-2.5-132
Market (1 books)-13.5-475
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBall State Cardinals +13.5-110-131+4.4%
MoneylineBall State Cardinals ML+450+303priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at Duke
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Stanford +9.5
should be Stanford +7.5 · getting 2 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Duke by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 7.5. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Duke →
Market
Duke by 9.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Duke's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Duke's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Duke's last game
Massey
Duke by 36.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Duke by 7.51.9 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Stanford. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.72.2 pts over the market
Massey
54.54 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.63.1 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Duke spreadTotal (over)Duke MLStanford ML
Kalshi
Stanford +9.5 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Stanford to win · +275
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Stanford loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 3.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Stanford +9.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 90°F.

Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils -9.5, only $0 available; Stanford Cardinal +9.5, only $459 available; Duke Blue Devils ML, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onDuke by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Duke's last game
FPIhasn't seen Duke's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Duke's last game
Massey-3.0-140
Market (1 books)-9.5-292
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadStanford Cardinal +9.5-110-130+4.1%
MoneylineStanford Cardinal ML+275+226+4.0%
TotalOver 50.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at Delaware
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:30am
Over 57.5
should be 58.1 · getting 0.6 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Delaware by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 3.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Delaware →
Market
Delaware by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
Massey
Delaware by 22.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Delaware by 3.50.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Coastal Carolina. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
61.54 pts over the market
Massey
57.80.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.62.1 pts over the market
Over 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLCoastal Carolina ML
Kalshi-182 63¢
Coastal Carolina +4.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · +146
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onDelaware by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
FPIhasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
Massey-2.0-123
Market (1 books)-4.5-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.559.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +4.5-110-118+1.8%
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+146+148-0.4%
TotalOver 57.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South Carolina
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pm
Under 57.5
should be 56.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 54.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 6, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 6
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
Massey
South Carolina by 23.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 51.2 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Mississippi State. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 5opened South Carolina by 7.5now South Carolina by 5.5FriSatSun

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Mississippi State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.42.1 pts under the market
Massey
54.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.82.7 pts under the market
Under 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.8opened 54.5now 56.5FriSatSun

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLMississippi State ML
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+166 36¢
All 3 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLMississippi State ML
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+166 36¢
DraftKings-5.5 -11556.5 -108-218+180
FanDuel-6.5 -10558.5 -110-220+180

Marked: best for Mississippi State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State +6.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Mississippi State to win · +180
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Under 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 92°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
FPIhasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
Massey-2.0-126
Market (2 books)-6.0-192
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.554.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMississippi State Bulldogs +6.0-110-118+1.8%
MoneylineMississippi State Bulldogs ML+180+167+1.7%
TotalUnder 57.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 3.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at Clemson
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 47.5
should be 45.9 · getting 1.6 pts · was 44.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Clemson by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 4.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Clemson by 5.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
FPI
hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
Massey
Clemson by 23.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Clemson by 4.51 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean North Carolina. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
39.77.8 pts under the market
Massey
44.43.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
425.5 pts under the market
Under 47.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLNorth Carolina ML
Kalshi
North Carolina +5.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
North Carolina to win · +168
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. That's 5.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 3.0 toward North Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $135 available; North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $388 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
FPIhasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
Massey-2.0-126
Market (1 books)-5.5-180
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.542.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +5.5-110-117+1.5%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+168+161+1.0%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 3.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at Vanderbilt
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:45am
Over 51.5
should be 53.4 · getting 1.9 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vanderbilt by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more NC State than the bookmore Vanderbilt →
Market
Vanderbilt by 4.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
FPI
hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
Massey
Vanderbilt by 2.52 pts our side
Nasty Number
Vanderbilt by 40.6 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean NC State. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.98.4 pts over the market
Massey
55.64.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.76.2 pts over the market
Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
NC State +4.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
NC State to win · +140
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.2 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Full detail
We settle onVanderbilt by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
FPIhasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
Massey-2.5-131
Market (1 books)-4.5-151
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.557.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack +4.5-110-116+1.4%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML+140+151-1.9%
TotalOver 51.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Kansas +5.5
should be Kansas +4.5 · getting 1 pt
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Arizona State →
Market
Arizona State by 5.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Massey
Arizona State by 2.53 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona State by 4.50.9 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Kansas. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona State by 4.5opened Arizona State by 5.5now Arizona State by 5.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.32.2 pts under the market
Massey
59.23.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.20.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.2opened 56.5now 56.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kansas +5.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Kansas to win · +171
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kansas +5.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Full detail
We settle onArizona State by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPIhasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
Massey-2.5-129
Market (2 books)-5.5-183
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.556.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas Jayhawks +5.5-110-116+1.3%
MoneylineKansas Jayhawks ML+171+163+1.2%
TotalOver 55.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 2 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at Auburn
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Under 53.5
should be 50.7 · getting 2.8 pts · was 52
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Florida by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
Massey
Auburn by 2.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 11.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
41.112.4 pts under the market
Massey
47.26.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.29.3 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLFlorida ML
Kalshi
Auburn +2.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Auburn to win · +116
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. That's 9.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $459 available; Under 53.5, only $459 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
FPIhasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
Massey-2.5-127
Market (1 books)+2.5+126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.544.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineAuburn Tigers ML+116+112+0.9%
SpreadAuburn Tigers +2.5-110-108-0.6%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-132shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at Toledo
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:00pm
Temple +3.5
should be Temple +3 · getting 0.5 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
Toledo by 3.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
Massey
Toledo by 2.51 pts our side
Nasty Number
Toledo by 30.3 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Temple. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.10.6 pts over the market
Massey
52.40.9 pts over the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
51.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.
Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLTemple ML
Kalshi
Temple +3.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Temple to win · +136
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +3.5 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets ML, only $109 available; Temple Owls ML, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
FPIhasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
Massey-2.5-131
Market (1 books)-3.5-147
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +3.5-110-113+0.8%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+136+140-0.8%
TotalOver 51.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 58.5
should be 57.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 58
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 2.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 1.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
LSU by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
FPI
hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
Massey
Ole Miss by 2.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 1.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 1.5opened LSU by 2.5now LSU by 2.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.66.9 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
544.5 pts under the market
Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54opened 58.5now 58.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢58.5+124 43¢-155 59¢
All 4 books
Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢58.5+124 43¢-155 59¢
BetMGM+2.5 -10858.5 -108+115-140
DraftKings+2.5 -10558.5 -112+120-142
FanDuel+2.5 -11258.5 -105+108-130

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +2.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ole Miss to win · +117
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Over 58.5, only $450 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
FPIhasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
Massey-2.5-129
Market (3 books)+2.5+124
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.554.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML+117+117+0.2%
SpreadOle Miss Rebels +2.5-110-103-1.6%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at Minnesota
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Minnesota by 27.5, our data says Minnesota by 20.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 27.5.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Minnesota by 27.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
Massey
Minnesota by 3.5
Nasty Number
Minnesota by 20.57.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.39.2 pts under the market
Massey
490.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.74.8 pts under the market
Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLAkron ML
Kalshi-2580 96¢+1775
Akron +27.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Akron to win · +2040
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 49. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMinnesota by 20.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
FPIhasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
Massey-3.5-143
Market (1 books)-27.5-2272
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.544.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +27.5-110-141+6.1%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+2040+1071priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at Arkansas
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Over 53.5
should be 55.5 · getting 2 pts · was 52.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 21.5.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Georgia by 21.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
Massey
Arkansas by 1
Nasty Number
Georgia by 14.56.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
62.18.6 pts over the market
Massey
58.14.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.16.6 pts over the market
Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLGeorgia ML
Kalshi-2042 95¢
Arkansas +21.5 · -110
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Arkansas to win · +1100
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 6.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $140 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 23 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
FPIhasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
Massey-1.0-112
Market (1 books)+21.5+1154
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.560.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +21.5-110-169+10.4%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+1100+519priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 1.0.

The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 47.5
should be 45.3 · getting 2.2 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 23.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Iowa State by 23.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
Massey
Iowa State by 4
Nasty Number
Iowa State by 17.55.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
37.110.4 pts under the market
Massey
43.34.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.27.3 pts under the market
Under 47.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Bowling Green +23.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +1280
We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 37 and Massey projects 43. That's 7.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 26% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 19 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onIowa State by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
FPIhasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
Massey-4.0-153
Market (1 books)-23.5-1342
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.540.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +23.5-110-136+5.2%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+1280+753priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Kansas State by 19.5, our data says Kansas State by 14.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 19.5.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Kansas State →
Market
Kansas State by 19.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
Massey
Kansas State by 3
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 14.55 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.30.8 pts over the market
Massey
510.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.10.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Tulane +19.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Tulane to win · +810
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F, 26% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
FPIhasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
Massey-3.0-137
Market (1 books)-19.5-851
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTulane Green Wave +19.5-110-138+5.6%
MoneylineTulane Green Wave ML+810+506priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
Under 56.5
should be 54.8 · getting 1.7 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Ohio State →
Market
Ohio State by 52.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
Massey
Ohio State by 5
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 3814.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
506.5 pts under the market
Massey
51.45.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.75.8 pts under the market
Under 56.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Kent State +52.5 · -110
Covers 87 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F, 31% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 48 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 3830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
FPIhasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
Massey-5.0-169
Market (1 books)-52.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.550.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKent State Golden Flashes +52.5-110-652+34.3%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am
No bet
market says Texas State by 2.5, our data says Texas State by 2
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Texas State →
Market
Texas State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
Massey
Texas State by 1.5
Nasty Number
Texas State by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
63.5
The Four
SP+ pace
76.713.2 pts over the market
Massey
67.54 pts over the market
Nasty Number
72.18.6 pts over the market
Over 63.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
North Texas +2.5 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
North Texas to win · +114
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Over 63.5 · -110
SP+ projects 77 and Massey projects 68. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 86°F.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
FPIhasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
Massey-1.5-115
Market (1 books)-2.5-124
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points63.572.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +2.5-110+104-3.4%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+114+125-2.4%
TotalOver 63.5-110-130shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at Wisconsin
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:30am
Under 47.5
should be 45.4 · getting 2.1 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 24.5.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 24.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
Massey
Wisconsin by 3.5
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 186.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
38.19.4 pts under the market
Massey
42.64.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.47.1 pts under the market
Under 47.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLEastern Michigan ML
Kalshi-1429 93¢
Eastern Michigan +24.5 · -110
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Eastern Michigan to win · +1400
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 43. That's 7.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles ML, only $223 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 21 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
FPIhasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
Massey-3.5-144
Market (1 books)-24.5-1463
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.540.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadEastern Michigan Eagles +24.5-110-146+7.0%
MoneylineEastern Michigan Eagles ML+1400+808priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central Michigan
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 42.5
should be 41.2 · getting 1.3 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 1.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
Massey
Central Michigan by 2
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
SP+ pace
36.26.3 pts under the market
Massey
40.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
38.34.2 pts under the market
Under 42.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLWyoming ML
Kalshi
Central Michigan -1.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Central Michigan to win · -125
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50.
Not Nasty
the Under 42.5 · -110
SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 40. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 25% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -1.5, only $2 available; Wyoming Cowboys +1.5, only $2 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $290 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
FPIhasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
Massey-2.0-123
Market (1 books)-1.5-113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.538.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas -1.5-110-108-0.5%
MoneylineCentral Michigan Chippewas ML-125-119-1.2%
TotalUnder 42.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at Alabama
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 50.5
should be 49.9 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 18.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 18
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Alabama's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Alabama's last game
Massey
Alabama by 3.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 13.54.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 13.5opened Alabama by 17.5now Alabama by 18.5FriSatSun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 17.5 to Alabama by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.85.7 pts under the market
Massey
521.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.42.1 pts under the market
Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 51.5now 50.5FriSatSun

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Florida State +18.0 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Florida State to win · +750
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 52. That's 2.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Alabama).

The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPIhasn't seen Alabama's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Alabama's last game
Massey-3.5-142
Market (3 books)-18.0-751
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.548.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +18.0-110-140+5.9%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+750+451priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 0.5.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at Louisville
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 59
should be 58.5 · getting 0.6 pts · was 57.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 2, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more SMU than the bookmore Louisville →
Market
Louisville by 2
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPI
hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Massey
Louisville by 2
Nasty Number
Louisville by 20 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59
The Four
SP+ pace
54.84.4 pts under the market
Massey
59.3on the market
Nasty Number
572.1 pts under the market
Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLSMU ML
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢58.5 -121 53¢-112 51¢
All 4 books
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLSMU ML
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢58.5 -121 53¢-112 51¢
BetMGM-2 -10859.5 -105-120+100
DraftKings-1.5 -10558.5 -115-112-108
FanDuel-2.5 -11059.5 -110-126+105

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

SMU +2.0 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
SMU to win · -102
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.
Not Nasty
the Under 59.0 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 85°F, 25% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs +2.5, only $26 available; Under 58.5, only $206 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPIhasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
Massey-2.0-122
Market (3 books)-2.0-108
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.057.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSMU Mustangs +2.0-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineSMU Mustangs ML-102+123-5.6%
TotalUnder 59.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.7.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at Michigan
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 48.5
should be 47.7 · getting 0.8 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore Michigan →
Market
Michigan by 35.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
FPI
hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
Massey
Michigan by 4.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 269.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
44.63.9 pts under the market
Massey
471.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.82.7 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLUTEP ML
Kalshi
UTEP +35.5 · -110
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. That's 2.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F, 27% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: UTEP Miners ML, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 31 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 2630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
FPIhasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
Massey-4.5-161
Market (1 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.545.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTEP Miners +35.5-110-160+9.2%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at Rutgers
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
Over 55.5
should be 57.5 · getting 2 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 23.5.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Rutgers →
Market
USC by 23.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
Massey
Rutgers by 0.5
Nasty Number
USC by 16.57.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
65.29.7 pts over the market
Massey
59.33.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
62.26.7 pts over the market
Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLUSC ML
Kalshi-1684 94¢
Rutgers +23.5 · -110
Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Rutgers to win · +1200
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 6.7 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 35% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 16.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
FPIhasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
Massey-0.5-106
Market (1 books)+23.5+1258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.562.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +23.5-110-159+9.1%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+1200+630priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-123shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at Utah
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm
No bet
market says Utah by 26.5, our data says Utah by 20
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 26.5.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Utah →
Market
Utah by 26.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
Massey
Utah by 4
Nasty Number
Utah by 206.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.52 pts under the market
Massey
57.3on the market
Nasty Number
56.41.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.
Utah State +26.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +1600
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F.

The ratings sit 22 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
FPIhasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
Massey-4.0-155
Market (1 books)-26.5-1663
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.556.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +26.5-110-137+5.5%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1600+1004priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at Baylor
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
No bet
market says Baylor by 18.5, our data says Baylor by 14
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 18.5.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 18.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
Massey
Baylor by 3
Nasty Number
Baylor by 144.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.43.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
571.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLLouisiana Tech ML
Kalshi
Louisiana Tech +18.5 · -110
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +810
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Kalshi thin: Baylor Bears -18.5, only $0 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5, only $153 available; Baylor Bears ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
FPIhasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
Massey-3.0-137
Market (1 books)-18.5-851
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.557.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5-110-141+6.1%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+810+465priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at Indiana
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
No bet
market says Indiana by 44.5, our data says Indiana by 32.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.5.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 44.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Massey
Indiana by 4.5
Nasty Number
Indiana by 32.512 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 32.5opened Indiana by 44.5now Indiana by 44.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.81.7 pts under the market
Massey
57.81.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.81.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.8opened 59.5now 59.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLWestern Kentucky ML
Kalshi
Western Kentucky +44.5 · -110
Covers 83 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F, 29% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 40 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 32.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPIhasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
Massey-4.5-163
Market (1 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.557.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5-110-484+30.5%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCF
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm
Over 49.5
should be 50.3 · getting 0.8 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 19.5.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore UCF →
Market
UCF by 19.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
Massey
UCF by 3
Nasty Number
UCF by 14.54.9 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.84.3 pts over the market
Massey
50.61.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.22.7 pts over the market
Over 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Georgia State +19.5 · -110
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Georgia State to win · +860
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onUCF by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
FPIhasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
Massey-3.0-137
Market (1 books)-19.5-904
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.552.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +19.5-110-138+5.5%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+860+507priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado State
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says BYU by 19.5, our data says BYU by 13.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 19.5.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
BYU by 19.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
FPI
hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
Massey
Colorado State by 1
Nasty Number
BYU by 13.56.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.37.2 pts under the market
Massey
54.41.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.82.7 pts under the market
Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Colorado State +19.5 · -110
Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Colorado State to win · +860
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

The ratings sit 20 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
FPIhasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
Massey-1.0-110
Market (1 books)+19.5+904
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.549.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +19.5-110-158+8.9%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+860+439priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at Northwestern
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Northwestern by 3, our data says the same
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 3, the Nasty Number says no number. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Northwestern by 3
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Colorado's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Colorado's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Northwestern by 3.5now Northwestern by 3.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
442 pts under the market
Nasty Number
442 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44opened 45.5now 46.5FriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLColorado ML
Kalshi46.5+109 46¢
All 3 books
Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLColorado ML
Kalshi46.5+109 46¢
DraftKings-3 -11245.5 -118-148+124
FanDuel-3.5 +10046.5 -110-154+128

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats -2.5, only $0 available; Colorado Buffaloes +2.5, only $0 available; Over 46.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado's last game
FPIhasn't seen Colorado's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Colorado's last game
Masseyrates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales
Market (2 books)-3.0-136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
TotalUnder 46.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at Maryland
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Virginia Tech by 2, our data says Virginia Tech by 0.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 2, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 0.5. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Maryland →
Market
Virginia Tech by 2
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
Massey
Maryland by 2.5
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 0.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 0.5opened Virginia Tech by 1.5now Virginia Tech by 1.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.82.7 pts under the market
Massey
55.32.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.6on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 50.5now 54.5FriSatSun

The total has moved 4 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLVirginia Tech ML
Kalshi+2.5-136 56¢
All 3 books
Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLVirginia Tech ML
Kalshi+2.5-136 56¢
DraftKings+1.5 -10554.5 -105+102-122
FanDuel+2.5 -11050.5 -115+108-130

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +2.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Maryland to win · +105
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $0 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
FPIhasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
Massey-2.5-127
Market (2 books)+2.0+114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins +2.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML+105+108-0.7%
TotalOver 52.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.5.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre Dame
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says Notre Dame by 24
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.5.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Notre Dame →
Market
Notre Dame by 29.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Massey
Notre Dame by 3.5
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 245.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 24opened Notre Dame by 29.5now Notre Dame by 29.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
55.22 pts over the market
Massey
52.60.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.90.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.9opened 52.5now 52.5FriSatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Michigan State +29.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · +2200
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

The ratings sit 26 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 2421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPIhasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
Massey-3.5-143
Market (3 books)-29.5-2367
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.053.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +29.5-110-116+1.4%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+2200+1835priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at Oklahoma
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 16
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore Oklahoma →
Market
Oklahoma by 21.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
Massey
Oklahoma by 3
Nasty Number
Oklahoma by 165.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.83.7 pts under the market
Massey
49.90.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.91.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.
Oklahoma spreadTotal (over)Oklahoma MLNew Mexico ML
Kalshi-2042 95¢+1464
New Mexico +21.5 · -110
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
New Mexico to win · +1335
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onOklahoma by 1630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
FPIhasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
Massey-3.0-140
Market (1 books)-21.5-1217
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.547.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos +21.5-110-145+6.9%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML+1335+608priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at Tennessee
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:45pm
No bet
market says Tennessee by 35.5, our data says Tennessee by 26
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.5.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 35.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
Massey
Tennessee by 4.5
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 269.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5
The Four
SP+ pace
60.80.3 pts over the market
Massey
58.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
59.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.
Kennesaw State +35.5 · -110
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 60.5 · -110
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

The ratings sit 31 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 2630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
FPIhasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
Massey-4.5-161
Market (1 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.559.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +35.5-110-160+9.2%
TotalUnder 60.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCU
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
No bet
market says TCU by 20.5, our data says TCU by 15.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 20.5.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore TCU →
Market
TCU by 20.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
Massey
TCU by 3
Nasty Number
TCU by 15.55.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5
The Four
SP+ pace
56.91.4 pts over the market
Massey
56.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.
Arkansas State +20.5 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Arkansas State to win · +860
We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTCU by 15.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
FPIhasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
Massey-3.0-141
Market (1 books)-20.5-904
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.556.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas State Red Wolves +20.5-110-135+5.1%
MoneylineArkansas State Red Wolves ML+860+558priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at Texas
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm
Over 57
should be 57.9 · getting 0.9 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas →
Market
Texas by 30
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
FPI
hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
Massey
Texas by 3.5
Nasty Number
Texas by 227.9 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57
The Four
SP+ pace
62.75.7 pts over the market
Massey
57.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
603 pts over the market
Over 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+3021
All 3 books
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLUTSA ML
Kalshi+3021
DraftKings-29.5 -11557.5 -110+2000
FanDuel-30.5 -11056.5 -110+2400

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA +30.0 · -110
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
UTSA to win · +2400
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 57. That's 3.0 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $0 available; Under 56.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 26 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 2230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
FPIhasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
Massey-3.5-146
Market (2 books)-30.0-2254
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.060.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners +30.0-110-148+7.3%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML+2400+1382priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at Arizona
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pm
Under 52.5
should be 50.4 · getting 2.1 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 31.5.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Arizona →
Market
Arizona by 31.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
Massey
Arizona by 4
Nasty Number
Arizona by 238.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
47.25.3 pts under the market
Massey
448.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.66.9 pts under the market
Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLNorthern Illinois ML
Kalshi-3476 97¢
Northern Illinois +31.5 · -110
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Northern Illinois to win · +2200
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 44. That's 6.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Northern Illinois Huskies ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 28 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 2330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
FPIhasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
Massey-4.0-150
Market (1 books)-31.5-2272
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.545.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Illinois Huskies +31.5-110-150+7.6%
MoneylineNorthern Illinois Huskies ML+2200+1628priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-123shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sun Sep 20

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →
Market
Falcons by 1.5
The Four
nfelo
Falcons by 1
FPI
Falcons by 1.5
Sagarin
Falcons by 2
Massey
Falcons by 2
Nasty Number
Falcons by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Falcons by 1.5opened Falcons by 1.5now Falcons by 1.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.50.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.50.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.5opened 42.5now 42.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
Kalshi-116 52¢-107 50¢
All 7 books
Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
Kalshi-116 52¢-107 50¢
BetRivers-1.5 -11043.5 -110-124+102
BetUS-1.5 -11042.5 -110
Caesars-1.5 -10842.5 -110
DraftKings-1.5 -11042.5 -110-122+102
FanDuel-1.5 +10042.5 -110-108-108
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11042.5 -110-121-105

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons -1.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · -121
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onFalcons by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-112
FPI-1.5-120
Sagarin-2.0-128
Massey-2.0-129
Market (6 books)-1.5-107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons -1.5-110-108-0.4%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML-121-121-0.1%
TotalOver 42.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 46.5
should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 7.5
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 9.5
FPI
Ravens by 8.5
Sagarin
Ravens by 9.5
Massey
Ravens by 2.5
Nasty Number
Ravens by 80.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 8opened Ravens by 7.5now Ravens by 7.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
Massey
42.83.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.83.7 pts under the market
Under 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 46.5now 46.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
Kalshi-430 80¢
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11046.5 -110
All 9 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
Kalshi-430 80¢
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11046.5 -110
BetRivers-7.5 -11246.5 -110-400+300
BetUS-7.5 -11046.5 -110
Caesars-7.5 -10946.5 -110
DraftKings-7.5 -11046.5 -110-360+285
FanDuel-8.5 -10446.5 -118-460+360
LowVig.ag-7.5 -10546.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11046.5 -110-410+290

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -7.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -400
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. That's 3.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.5-323
FPI-8.5-279
Sagarin-9.5-319
Massey-2.5-134
Market (8 books)-7.5-326
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.542.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -7.5-110+115-5.9%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-400-269-7.1%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 45.5
should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 2.5
FPI
Bears by 3.5
Sagarin
Bears by 3.5
Massey
Bears by 2
Nasty Number
Bears by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 3now Bears by 3SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
Massey
41.44.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.44.2 pts under the market
Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.4opened 45.5now 45.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
Kalshi-148 58¢+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11045.5 -110
All 9 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
Kalshi-148 58¢+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11045.5 -110
BetRivers-3 -11045.5 -112-165+135
BetUS-2.5 -11045.5 -110
Caesars-3 -10445.5 -114
DraftKings-3 -11045.5 -110-170+142
FanDuel-3 -10546.5 -110-154+130
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10545.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-3 -11046 -110-168+131

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bears to win · -165
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -110
Massey projects 41. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-137
FPI-3.5-154
Sagarin-3.5-154
Massey-2.0-127
Market (8 books)-3.0-146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.541.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears -3.0-110+103-3.2%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML-165-142-3.6%
TotalUnder 45.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 2.5
FPI
Texans by 2
Sagarin
Texans by 3
Massey
Texans by 2.5
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2.5opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 2.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
471.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
471.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 45.5now 45.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
Kalshi-136 56¢+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10345.5 -105
All 9 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
Kalshi-136 56¢+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10345.5 -105
BetRivers-2.5 -11246 -113-141+116
BetUS-3 +10545.5 -105
Caesars-2.5 -11445.5 -113-139+119
DraftKings-2.5 -11845.5 -110-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -11046.5 -110-136+116
LowVig.ag-3 +10845.5 -102
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11046 -110-147+115

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +2.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · +117
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-138
FPI-2.0-127
Sagarin-3.0-144
Massey-2.5-133
Market (8 books)-2.5-128
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.047.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals +2.5-110+111-5.0%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML+117+138-4.0%
TotalOver 46.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Buccaneers by 6.5
The Four
nfelo
Buccaneers by 8
FPI
Buccaneers by 7.5
Sagarin
Buccaneers by 7.5
Massey
Buccaneers by 2.5
Nasty Number
Buccaneers by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Buccaneers by 6.5opened Buccaneers by 6.5now Buccaneers by 6.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41
The Four
Massey
40.8on the market
Nasty Number
40.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.8opened 42.5now 42.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
Kalshi-306 74¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -12040.5 -115
All 9 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
Kalshi-306 74¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -12040.5 -115
BetRivers-6.5 -11041.5 -110-295+230
BetUS-6.5 -12040.5 -115
Caesars-6.5 -11740.5 -124
DraftKings-6.5 -11042.5 -110-278+225
FanDuel-6.5 -12040.5 -105-330+265
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11640.5 -113
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11041 -110-319+236

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -6.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · -295
We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65.
Not Nasty
the Under 41.0 · -110
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onBuccaneers by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.0-265
FPI-7.5-250
Sagarin-7.5-251
Massey-2.5-131
Market (8 books)-6.5-255
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.040.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5-110+109-4.6%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML-295-228-5.2%
TotalUnder 41.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →
Market
Packers by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Packers by 5.5
FPI
Packers by 5.5
Sagarin
Packers by 7
Massey
Jets by 1.5
Nasty Number
Packers by 5.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 5.5opened Packers by 5.5now Packers by 5.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.60.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.60.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.6opened 42.5now 42.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
Kalshi-239 69¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11543 -110
All 9 books
Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
Kalshi-239 69¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11543 -110
BetRivers+5.5 -10942.5 -112+200-245
BetUS+5.5 -11543 -110
Caesars+5.5 -10942.5 -114+200-245
DraftKings+5.5 -11042.5 -110+200-245
FanDuel+5.5 -11042.5 -118+200-245
LowVig.ag+5.5 -11043 -107
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -110+189-250

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -5.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · -245
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New York Jets ML, only $423 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.5+198
FPI+5.5+199
Sagarin+7.0+239
Massey-1.5-120
Market (8 books)+5.5+212
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGreen Bay Packers -5.5-110+108-4.3%
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML-245-197-4.7%
TotalOver 42.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →
Market
Patriots by 4.5
The Four
nfelo
Patriots by 4.5
FPI
Patriots by 3.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game
Massey
Patriots by 1.5
Nasty Number
Patriots by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Patriots by 4opened Patriots by 4.5now Patriots by 4.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
Massey
39.73.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.73.8 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.7opened 43.5now 43.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
Kalshi-191 64¢+152 38¢
All 6 books
Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
Kalshi-191 64¢+152 38¢
BetRivers-4.5 -11043.5 -112-210+170
BetUS-4 -11043.5 -110
Caesars-4.5 -10543.5 -110-200+160
DraftKings-4.5 -10543.5 -110-205+170
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11043.5 -110-214+164

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +4.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +164
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110
Massey projects 40. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.

Full detail
We settle onPatriots by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-188
FPI-3.5-162
Sagarinhasn't seen New England Patriots's last game
Massey-1.5-131
Market (5 books)-4.5-179
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.539.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +4.5-110-116+1.2%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+164+166-0.3%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Titans to win
our data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →
Market
Eagles by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 5
FPI
Eagles by 4
Sagarin
Eagles by 5
Massey
Titans by 1.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5.5opened Eagles by 5.5now Eagles by 5.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.71.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.71.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.7opened 42.5now 42.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
Kalshi-276 72¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
All 9 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
Kalshi-276 72¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
BetRivers+5.5 -11042.5 -110+200-245
BetUS+5.5 -11542.5 -110
Caesars+5.5 -10942.5 -107+198-240
DraftKings+5.5 -11042.5 -110+190-230
FanDuel+5.5 -11041.5 -115+210-255
LowVig.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -110+189-250

Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +5.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · +198
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $393 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.0+186
FPI+4.0+163
Sagarin+5.0+188
Massey-1.5-119
Market (8 books)+5.5+211
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +5.5-110-111+0.2%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+198+191+0.8%
TotalOver 42.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
No bet
market says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Broncos by 3
The Four
nfelo
Broncos by 3
FPI
Broncos by 2.5
Sagarin
Broncos by 3
Massey
Broncos by 2
Nasty Number
Broncos by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Broncos by 3opened Broncos by 3now Broncos by 3SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
Massey
42.61.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.61.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.6opened 43.5now 43.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
Kalshi
BetOnline.ag-3 -11044.5 -110
All 8 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
BetOnline.ag-3 -11044.5 -110
BetRivers-3 -10944.5 -110-148+120
BetUS-3 -11044.5 -110
Caesars-3 -10944.5 -106-154+131
DraftKings-3 -11043.5 -110-155+130
FanDuel-3 -11044.5 -118-156+132
LowVig.ag-3 -10544.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-3 -11044.5 -110-159+124

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +130
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $472 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $210 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-142
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-3.0-144
Massey-2.0-128
Market (8 books)-3.0-138
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.542.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +3.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+130+142-2.2%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
Under 42.5
should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 9.5
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 7
FPI
Chargers by 9.5
Sagarin
Chargers by 10.5
Massey
Chargers by 2.5
Nasty Number
Chargers by 90.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 9opened Chargers by 9.5now Chargers by 9.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
38.83.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
38.83.7 pts under the market
Under 42.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.8opened 42.5now 42.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders +9.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · +330
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 39. That's 3.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 921% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.0-231
FPI-9.5-334
Sagarin-10.5-379
Massey-2.5-134
Market (8 books)-9.5-358
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.538.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +9.5-110-115+1.2%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+330+313priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 42.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm
No bet
market says Cowboys by 4.5, our data says Cowboys by 4.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Cowboys by 4.5
The Four
nfelo
Cowboys by 4.5
FPI
Cowboys by 5.5
Sagarin
Cowboys by 5.5
Massey
Cowboys by 2
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 4.5opened Cowboys by 4.5now Cowboys by 4.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
Massey
51.2on the market
Nasty Number
51.2on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 51.5now 51.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
Kalshi-229 68¢
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -10551 -110
All 9 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLCommanders ML
Kalshi-229 68¢
BetOnline.ag-4.5 -10551 -110
BetRivers-4.5 -11251.5 -109-220+175
BetUS-4.5 -10551 -110
Caesars-4.5 -10851.5 -110
DraftKings-4.5 -10551.5 -110-198+164
FanDuel-4.5 -11551.5 -115-230+190
LowVig.ag-4.5 +10051 -107
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11051.5 -110-222+170

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · -220
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110
Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $350 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 7 more.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-175
FPI-5.5-193
Sagarin-5.5-201
Massey-2.0-128
Market (8 books)-4.5-188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDallas Cowboys -4.5-110+110-4.7%
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML-220-175-5.1%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pm
Under 47.5
should be 46.7 · getting 0.6 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 6.5
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 5.5
FPI
Chiefs by 5
Sagarin
Chiefs by 6.5
Massey
Chiefs by 2
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 6opened Chiefs by 6.5now Chiefs by 6.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
Massey
45.32 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.32 pts under the market
Under 47.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.3opened 47.5now 47.5SatSun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
Kalshi-276 72¢+217 30¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11047.5 -110
All 9 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
Kalshi-276 72¢+217 30¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11047.5 -110
BetRivers-6.5 -10947.5 -109-278+220
BetUS-6.5 -11047.5 -110
Caesars-6.5 -10947.5 -106-275+220
DraftKings-6.5 -11047.5 -110-278+225
FanDuel-5.5 -11046.5 -110-250+205
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10547.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-6 -11047 -110-275+206

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +6.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +220
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.5 · -110
Massey projects 45. That's 2.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.5-198
FPI-5.0-183
Sagarin-6.5-220
Massey-2.0-130
Market (8 books)-6.5-230
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.545.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +6.5-110-119+2.0%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+220+209+1.1%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-1+0.78 units · +26% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+1.5 ptsbeat the close on 3 of 4 posted picks
Open0calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games

Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty0-0nothing graded yet0 games

No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.

A Little Nasty9-853%+0.17 units17 games

Sep 8 to 14

9-8 · +0.17 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick2-166.7%+0.8 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
A Little Nasty9-852.9%+0.2 usmall sample
Not Nasty67 gamesno call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.44Sides: pts vs close, 11 bets, beat it 55%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

60 priced · 7 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit: 1 problem

The audit found 1 problem at Sun 6:03am. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. college: every game on the board is Waiting (46 of 46); the ratings rule has emptied the sport
13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.
Next picks

Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 73 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 29 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since Sat 12 Sep, 10:56pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 1.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward Virginia Cavalierswith the public
  • → 0.5Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M Aggiestoward Texas A&M Aggieswith the public
  • → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
11.04Points off per game at that weight
11.04The market on its own
92Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
FPI5310.38
The market9211.04
SP+5311.39
Sagarin8113.80

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.540-5044%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 368941 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.23 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi422.83
LowVig.ag1141.44
BetOnline.ag1181.43
DraftKings1461.24
Caesars1251.23
Bovada1081.21
Fanatics1421.19
BetMGM1071.15
TOM1051.14
BetRivers1531.12
FanDuel1711.11
Pinnacle1071.07
MyBookie.ag941.00
BetUS830.98

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 4 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated yesterday
  • SP+ updated 4 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 4 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
  • nfelo updated today
Log the bets you took

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Saved
Built 6:03 AM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 14067.