Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 3:29 pm · 2 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:18am✓MasseyFri 8:05am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 30 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pm✓FPISat 1:01pm✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 8:05am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 18 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

NASTY PICKMiami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats

Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5

-105as called

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Marshall at Missouri StateMissouri State +4.5 -110Nasty Pick · called Wed 9:06amStill a playSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOM, half a point worse than the +4.5 -110 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Virginia at West VirginiaWest Virginia +10 -105Nasty Pick · called Mon 3:35pmStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. West Virginia +10.5 · -110 at TOM, half a point better, 5 cents worse than the +10 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Eagles at TitansTitans +7.5-115 · 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: UAB at Louisiana, Over 54.5. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 4 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

Buck's Take

Two Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Missouri State +4.5 and West Virginia +10. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.

Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5. Every system has Eagles by 5.5; the market has Eagles by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Under 53.5 (Florida at Auburn) at 3.9% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is UAB at Louisiana, Over 54.5, down 4 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Marshall at Missouri State, Missouri State +4.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.

Buck

Today

40 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsMarshall at Missouri State

CFB 5:30pm

Missouri State +4.5 -110

Bet it · now Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +4.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at Missouri State +4.5 -110. Bet it. Missouri State +4 · -110 at TOM, half a point worse than the +4.5 -110 we posted on Wednesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Marshall by 4, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3.5.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore Missouri State →

Market

Marshall by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Marshall by 2.51.5 pts our side

FPI

Missouri State by 48.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Marshall by 13.2 pts our side

Massey

Marshall by 4on the market

Nasty Number

Marshall by 3.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Missouri State. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Missouri State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

61.27.7 pts over the market

Massey

56.93.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.15.6 pts over the market

Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Missouri State spread	Total (over)	Missouri State ML	Marshall ML
TOM	+4 -110	53.5 -105	+158	-188
Pinnacle	+4.5 -113	52.5 -111	+162	-185

All 12 books

	Missouri State spread	Total (over)	Missouri State ML	Marshall ML
TOM	+4 -110	53.5 -105	+158	-188
BetMGM	+4 -110	52.5 -110	+155	-190
BetOnline.ag	+4 -110	53.5 -105	+164	-188
BetRivers	+4 -109	53.5 -108	+150	-186
BetUS	+4 -110	53 -110	+163	-190
Bovada	+4 -110	52.5 -115	+160	-185
Caesars	+4 -107	52.5 -114	+153	-182
DraftKings	+4 -110	52.5 -110	+160	-192
FanDuel	+4.5 -115	52.5 -114	+155	-188
LowVig.ag	+4 -106	53.5 -103	+164	-188
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	52.5 -110	+160	-198
Pinnacle	+4.5 -113	52.5 -111	+162	-185

Marked: best for Missouri State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +4.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Missouri State to win · +158 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 5.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 95°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Missouri State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+130
FPI	-4.0	-156
Sagarin	+1.0	+109
Massey	+4.0	+151
Market (11 books)	+4.0	+165

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+158	+145	+2.1%
Spread	Missouri State Bears +4.0	-110	-116	+1.3%
Total	Over 53.5	-105	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Marshall Thundering Herd since 09-13 13:56.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus; total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.

Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West Virginia

CFB 6:30pm · neutral

West Virginia +10 -105

Bet it · now West Virginia +10.5 · -110 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +10 -105Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at West Virginia +10 -105. Bet it. West Virginia +10.5 · -110 at TOM, half a point better, 5 cents worse than the +10 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Virginia by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 10. Correction, Fri Sep 18. This game is on a neutral field in Charlotte. When we posted it, the Nasty Sauce gave West Virginia a home field it doesn't have, about two points in every one of the Four. On a neutral field the edge at posting was about 2.5%, under the Cut: Damn Near Nasty, not a Nasty Pick. The pick stands as posted and grades at West Virginia +10 -105. Size it like a Damn Near Nasty.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 10.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Virginia by 9.50.8 pts our side

FPI

Virginia by 11.50.9 pts against us

Sagarin

Virginia by 55.6 pts our side

Massey

Virginia by 6.53.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia by 100.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean West Virginia. FPI at Virginia by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

467 pts under the market

Massey

52.60.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.33.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+10.5 -110	53 -105	+310	-400
Kalshi	+10.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+313 23¢	-381 78¢
Pinnacle	+10.5 -103	53.5 -106	+334	-417

All 14 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+10.5 -110	53 -105	+310	-400
Kalshi	+10.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+313 23¢	-381 78¢
BetMGM	+11 -118	53.5 -110	+333	-425
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -110	53 -105	+316	-400
BetRivers	+10.5 -112	53.5 -112	+310	-420
BetUS	+11 -110	53 -105	+320	-400
Bovada	+11 -115	53.5 -105	+325	-435
Caesars	+10.5 -113	53 -112	+320	-420
DraftKings	+10.5 -108	53.5 -110	+320	-410
Fanatics	+10.5 -110	53.5 -110	+325	-425
FanDuel	+10.5 -114	53.5 -105	+340	-430
LowVig.ag	+10.5 -106	53 -103	+316	-400
MyBookie.ag	+11 -110	53.5 -110	+340	-461
Pinnacle	+10.5 -103	53.5 -106	+334	-417

Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia +10.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

West Virginia to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +10.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Across the books: opened +10.0, now +10.5. The market has moved 0.7 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 1021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+285
FPI	+11.5	+349
Sagarin	+5.0	+167
Massey	+6.5	+202
Market (12 books)	+10.5	+324

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	West Virginia Mountaineers +10.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	West Virginia Mountaineers ML	+310	+296	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-13 17:38; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsOhio at South Alabama

CFB 6:00pm

Ohio +7Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Ohio +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +4

A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says South Alabama by 7, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 6.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore South Alabama →

Market

South Alabama by 7TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

South Alabama by 42.8 pts our side

FPI

South Alabama by 43.2 pts our side

Sagarin

South Alabama by 43.1 pts our side

Massey

South Alabama by 2.54.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Alabama by 6.50.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

46.82.2 pts under the market

Massey

54.95.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.81.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	Ohio ML
TOM	-7 -105	49 -115	-260	+210
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-250 70¢	+208 31¢
Pinnacle	-7 +100	49 -104	-258	+219

All 12 books

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	Ohio ML
TOM	-7 -105	49 -115	-260	+210
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-250 70¢	+208 31¢
BetMGM	-6.5 -115	48.5 -120	-275	+210
BetOnline.ag	-7 -105	49 -115	-260	+215
BetRivers	-7 -106	48.5 -117	-245	+190
BetUS	-7 -105	49 -110	-260	+218
Bovada	-7 -105	49 -110	-260	+215
DraftKings	-7 -102	49.5 -108	-258	+210
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	49.5 -105	-260	+210
LowVig.ag	-7 -101	49 -114	-260	+215
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	49 -110	-275	+218
Pinnacle	-7 +100	49 -104	-258	+219

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio +7.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · +210 at TOM

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio +7.0 · -115 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -4.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 3.1 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Alabama by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-4.0	-156
FPI	-4.0	-149
Sagarin	-4.0	-151
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (10 books)	-7.0	-249

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	50.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	+210	+196	+1.5%
Spread	Ohio Bobcats +7.0	-115	-120	+1.0%
Total	Over 49.0	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksGeorgia Southern at Jacksonville State

CFB 6:00pm

Georgia Southern +3.5

should be Georgia Southern +3 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3

A Little Nasty · Georgia SouthernBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Georgia Southern. Market says Jacksonville State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Jacksonville State by 21.7 pts our side

FPI

Jacksonville State by 12.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Jacksonville State by 3.5on the market

Massey

Jacksonville State by 12.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 30.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Georgia Southern. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Georgia Southern's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

57.55.5 pts over the market

Massey

52.70.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

55.13.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	52 -108	-175	+145
Pinnacle	-3.5 -101	52.5 -108	-171	+150

All 11 books

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	52 -108	-175	+145
BetMGM	-3.5 -108	52.5 -108	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	52 -108	-175	+153
BetRivers	-3.5 -108	53.5 -110	-162	+128
BetUS	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-170	+146
Bovada	-3.5 -105	52.5 -110	-175	+150
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	52.5 -108	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	52.5 -112	-170	+140
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	52 -106	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-181	+146
Pinnacle	-3.5 -101	52.5 -108	-171	+150

Marked: best for Georgia Southern, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Georgia Southern to win · +145 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Southern +3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F, 45% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Georgia Southern, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.0	-121
FPI	-1.0	-111
Sagarin	-3.5	-144
Massey	-1.0	-111
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	55.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+145	+138	+1.2%
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +3.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Total	Over 52.0	-108	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 09-13 13:40.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.

James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego State

CFB 9:00pm

Over 46.5

should be 47.6 · getting 1.1 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says San Diego State by 1, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore San Diego State →

Market

San Diego State by 1TOM, -120

The Four

SP+

James Madison by 2.5

FPI

San Diego State by 1

Sagarin

San Diego State by 2

Massey

James Madison by 5.5

Nasty Number

San Diego State by 0.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

48.52 pts over the market

Massey

525.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.23.7 pts over the market

Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	James Madison ML
TOM	-1 -120	46.5 -105	-128	+108
Pinnacle	-2 -106	46.5 -106	-122	+109

All 12 books

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	James Madison ML
TOM	-1 -120	46.5 -105	-128	+108
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	46.5 -108	-130	+105
BetOnline.ag	-1 -120	46.5 -105	-128	+108
BetRivers	-1.5 -114	45.5 -115	-122	+100
BetUS	-1.5 -110	46.5 -105	-126	+106
Bovada	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-2 -115	46.5 -106	-125	+107
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	46.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	46.5 -105	-128	+106
LowVig.ag	-1 -116	46.5 -103	-128	+108
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	46.5 -110	-129	+105
Pinnacle	-2 -106	46.5 -106	-122	+109

Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison +1.0 · +100 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · +108 at TOM

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has San Diego State -1.0 while Pinnacle is at San Diego State by 2.

Full detail

We settle onSan Diego State by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+127
FPI	-1.0	-111
Sagarin	-2.0	-125
Massey	+5.5	+181
Market (11 books)	-1.0	-122

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	+108	+105	+0.6%
Spread	James Madison Dukes +1.0	+100	+100	-0.1%
Total	Over 46.5	-105	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South Carolina

CFB 3:50pm

Under 59

should be 57.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 58.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Carolina by 3, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore South Carolina →

Market

South Carolina by 3TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

South Carolina by 9

FPI

South Carolina by 4.5

Sagarin

South Carolina by 5.5

Massey

South Carolina by 4

Nasty Number

South Carolina by 3.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3.5 to South Carolina by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM, Under -108

The Four

SP+ pace

53.85.2 pts under the market

Massey

54.24.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

545 pts under the market

Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	-3 -117	59 -112	-160	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	—	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-3 -112	59 -112	-157	+138

All 12 books

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	-3 -117	59 -112	-160	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 +101 48¢	—	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	59.5 -110	-165	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3 -117	59 -112	-160	+140
BetRivers	-3.5 -106	59 -109	—	—
BetUS	-3 -115	59.5 -110	-160	+138
Caesars	-2.5 -136	59.5 -110	-164	+128
DraftKings	-3 -118	59.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-3.5 -102	59.5 -110	-162	+132
LowVig.ag	-3 -111	59 -110	-160	+140
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -125	58.5 -111	-143	+120
Pinnacle	-3 -112	59 -112	-157	+138

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina -3.0 · -117 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · -160 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 59.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 54. That's 5.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -4.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Mississippi State).

Kalshi thin: Over 59.5, only $91 available; Under 59.5, only $133 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Carolina by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-9.0	-267
FPI	-4.5	-165
Sagarin	-5.5	-176
Massey	-4.0	-151
Market (10 books)	-3.0	-153

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	54.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks -3.0	-117	-106	-2.4%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	-160	-146	-2.1%
Total	Under 59.0	-108	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-15 18:05; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at Auburn

CFB 6:00pm

Under 53.5

should be 50.5 · getting 3 pts · was 52.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 9.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 1. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

Florida by 1.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Florida by 5.5

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Florida by 1

Massey

Auburn by 1

Nasty Number

Florida by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 2.5 to Florida by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Under -115

The Four

SP+ pace

40.113.4 pts under the market

Massey

47.26.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.79.8 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Florida ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	53.5 -105	+108	-128
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 -107	53 -106	+116	-131

All 13 books

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Florida ML
TOM	+1.5 -105	53.5 -105	+108	-128
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+114 45¢	-136 56¢
BetMGM	+2 -108	52.5 -110	+105	-130
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -105	53.5 -105	+108	-128
BetRivers	+2 -110	52.5 -112	+108	-134
BetUS	+2 -110	53 -110	+110	-130
Bovada	+2.5 -115	53 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -113	53 -112	+109	-129
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	52.5 -115	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -115	53.5 -105	+112	-134
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -101	53.5 -103	+108	-128
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	53 -110	+111	-135
Pinnacle	+2.5 -107	53 -106	+116	-131

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +1.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Auburn to win · +108 at TOM

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 47. That's 9.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 86°F, 49% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.0 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Florida -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.5	+179
FPI	PK	-102
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-1.0	-109
Market (11 books)	+1.5	+113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	43.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers +1.5	-105	+102	-1.8%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	+108	+113	-1.1%
Total	Under 53.5	-115	-134	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss

CFB 6:30pm

Under 59

should be 57.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says LSU by 2.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →

Market

LSU by 2.5TOM, +105

The Four

SP+

LSU by 6.5

FPI

LSU by 5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Ole Miss by 5.5

Nasty Number

LSU by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM, Under -105

The Four

SP+ pace

49.19.9 pts under the market

Massey

56.42.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.76.3 pts under the market

Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	LSU ML
TOM	+2.5 +105	59 -115	+122	-147
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	58.5 -112 51¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +103	59 -106	+126	-142

All 13 books

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	LSU ML
TOM	+2.5 +105	59 -115	+122	-147
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	58.5 -112 51¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
BetMGM	+3 -112	58.5 -112	+125	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +105	58.5 -115	+127	-147
BetRivers	+3 -114	58.5 -110	+128	-162
BetUS	+3 -120	59 -110	+125	-145
Bovada	+2.5 +100	59 -110	+125	-145
Caesars	+3 -112	58.5 -113	+128	-152
DraftKings	+3 -112	58.5 -112	+124	-148
Fanatics	+3 -115	59 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -104	58.5 -115	+122	-144
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	59 -110	+123	-151
Pinnacle	+2.5 +103	59 -106	+126	-142

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

LSU -2.5 · -125 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

LSU to win · -147 at TOM

We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52.

Not Nasty

the Under 59.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 96°F.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.5	+204
FPI	+5.0	+169
Sagarin	PK	+101
Massey	-5.5	-175
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+127

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	52.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	LSU Tigers -2.5	-125	-108	-3.6%
Moneyline	LSU Tigers ML	-147	-130	-3.0%
Total	Under 59.0	-105	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at Louisiana

CFB 7:00pm

Over 54.5Moved our way · 4 pts

should be 57.2 · getting 2.7 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 8. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Louisiana →

Market

Louisiana by 7TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Louisiana by 13

FPI

Louisiana by 11

Sagarin

Louisiana by 11

Massey

Louisiana by 7.5

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 81.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 8.5 to Louisiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM, Over -115

The Four

SP+ pace

65.410.9 pts over the market

Massey

61.36.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

63.38.8 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 4 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 4 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	UAB ML
TOM	-7 -115	54.5 -115	-275	+215
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	55.5 +101 48¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-7 -106	55 -110	-276	+233

All 12 books

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	UAB ML
TOM	-7 -115	54.5 -115	-275	+215
Kalshi	-7.5 +105 47¢	55.5 +101 48¢	-276 72¢	+229 29¢
BetMGM	-7 -105	55.5 -102	-275	+220
BetOnline.ag	-7 -115	54.5 -115	-270	+222
BetRivers	-7 -118	55.5 -117	-335	+245
BetUS	-7 -110	55 -110	-270	+225
Bovada	-7 -110	55 -110	-275	+225
DraftKings	-7 -108	55.5 -102	-278	+225
FanDuel	-6.5 -120	55.5 -108	-260	+210
LowVig.ag	-7 -111	54.5 -114	-270	+222
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	55 -110	-285	+222
Pinnacle	-7 -106	55 -110	-276	+233

Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana -7.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Louisiana to win · -275 at TOM

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 61. That's 8.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UAB). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.0	-415
FPI	-11.0	-335
Sagarin	-11.0	-324
Massey	-7.5	-224
Market (10 books)	-7.0	-263

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	63.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.0	-115	-104	-2.6%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	-275	-241	-2.7%
Total	Over 54.5	-115	-131	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UAB Blazers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at Alabama

CFB 4:00pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 19, our data says Alabama by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 19.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 19TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Alabama by 15.5

FPI

Alabama by 17.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 14

Massey

Alabama by 16.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 180.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 20 to Alabama by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.66.9 pts under the market

Massey

521.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.82.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-19 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-18 -103	50.5 -107	-1261	+807

All 12 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-19 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-18.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1200	+825
BetOnline.ag	-19 -115	50.5 -110	-1200	+754
BetUS	-19 -108	50.5 -110	-1200	+750
Bovada	-17.5 -120	50.5 -110	-1400	+750
Caesars	-18.5 -108	50.5 -107	-1450	+800
DraftKings	-18.5 -112	50.5 -112	-1350	+800
Fanatics	-19 -110	50.5 -110	-1300	+800
FanDuel	-18.5 -105	50.5 -110	-1400	+800
LowVig.ag	-18.5 -102	50.5 -108	-1200	+754
MyBookie.ag	-18.5 -105	49.5 -118	-1000	+625
Pinnacle	-18 -103	50.5 -107	-1261	+807

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +19.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Florida State to win · +800

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 98°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Florida State).

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.5	-585
FPI	-17.5	-762
Sagarin	-14.0	-473
Massey	-16.5	-665
Market (11 books)	-19.0	-821

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +19.0	-110	+114	-5.6%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+800	+805	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-19 11:59; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -18.2 consensus.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App State

CFB 5:00pm

No bet

market says App State by 17.5, our data says App State by 17

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says App State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 17.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

App State by 20

FPI

App State by 15

Sagarin

App State by 16

Massey

App State by 14.5

Nasty Number

App State by 170.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

55.62.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.92.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

55.72.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 50 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-17.5 -105	53 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-17.5 +100	53 -107	-1125	+741

All 11 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-17.5 -105	53 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-17 -112	53.5 -108	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-17.5 -105	53 -110	-1100	+709
BetRivers	-17 -108	52.5 -113	-1250	+700
BetUS	-17.5 -105	53 -110	-1000	+650
Bovada	-17 -110	53 -110	-1200	+700
DraftKings	-17.5 -105	52.5 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-17.5 -105	52.5 -114	-1100	+680
LowVig.ag	-17.5 -101	53 -108	-1100	+709
MyBookie.ag	-17.5 -110	52.5 -110	-1205	+680
Pinnacle	-17.5 +100	53 -107	-1125	+741

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +17.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +700

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F, 29% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Charlotte).

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 1721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.0	-1032
FPI	-15.0	-523
Sagarin	-16.0	-623
Massey	-14.5	-495
Market (10 books)	-17.5	-751

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	55.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +17.5	-115	+113	-6.4%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+700	+698	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsEast Carolina at Old Dominion

CFB 5:00pm

No bet

market says Old Dominion by 3, our data says Old Dominion by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 3, the Nasty Number says Old Dominion by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more East Carolina than the bookmore Old Dominion →

Market

Old Dominion by 3TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Old Dominion by 2

FPI

East Carolina by 0.5

Sagarin

Old Dominion by 1

Massey

East Carolina by 1

Nasty Number

Old Dominion by 2.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 2.5 to Old Dominion by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

44.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

52.44.4 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

48on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	East Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -105	48 -120	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	49 -101	-138	+122

All 12 books

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	East Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -105	48 -120	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
BetMGM	-3 -105	48.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	48 -120	-145	+125
BetRivers	-3 -107	48.5 -117	-148	+120
BetUS	-3 -105	49 -110	-145	+125
Bovada	-2.5 -120	49 -105	-140	+120
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	48.5 -112	-142	+120
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	49.5 -105	-142	+118
LowVig.ag	-3 -101	48 -119	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	48.5 -110	-147	+120
Pinnacle	-2.5 -114	49 -101	-138	+122

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina +3.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · +100 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOld Dominion by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.0	-123
FPI	+0.5	+106
Sagarin	-1.0	-113
Massey	+1.0	+111
Market (10 books)	-3.0	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates +3.0	-115	-108	-1.7%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	+120	+129	-1.8%
Total	Under 48.0	+100	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.6 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida Atlantic

CFB 5:00pm

No bet

market says Florida Atlantic by 4.5, our data says Florida Atlantic by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Florida Atlantic by 5.5

FPI

Florida Atlantic by 0.5

Sagarin

Florida Atlantic by 6.5

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 3.5

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 4.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 7 to Florida Atlantic by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

65.73.7 pts over the market

Massey

60.11.9 pts under the market

Weather

-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

61.9on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 62.5 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Florida International ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	62 -110	-200	+170
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -107 50¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-6 +101	62.5 -102	-209	+181

All 12 books

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Florida International ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	62 -110	-200	+170
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -107 50¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
BetMGM	-4.5 -110	62.5 -105	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	62 -110	-200	+174
BetRivers	-6 -113	62.5 -110	-240	+190
BetUS	-4.5 -110	62 -110	-200	+170
Bovada	-5.5 -110	62 -115	-210	+175
DraftKings	-5.5 -105	62.5 -108	-225	+185
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	62.5 -110	-194	+160
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -106	62 -108	-200	+174
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	62 -110	-216	+172
Pinnacle	-6 +101	62.5 -102	-209	+181

Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida Atlantic -4.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Florida Atlantic to win · -200 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57.

Not Nasty

the Under 62.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Florida International). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers +5.5, only $215 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.5 consensus.

TOM: total 62.0 here against 62.4 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Florida Atlantic -4.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida Atlantic by 6.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-183
FPI	-0.5	-108
Sagarin	-6.5	-201
Massey	-3.5	-146
Market (10 books)	-4.5	-191

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Florida Atlantic Owls -4.5	-110	+109	-4.5%
Moneyline	Florida Atlantic Owls ML	-200	-162	-4.9%
Total	Under 62.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -5.5 consensus; total 62.0 here against 62.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Delaware State Hornets at South Florida BullsDelaware State at South Florida

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says South Florida by 36.5, our data says South Florida by 35

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 36.5.

The spread

← more Delaware State than the bookmore South Florida →

Market

South Florida by 36.5TOM, -110

The Four

Sagarin

South Florida by 29.5

Nasty Number

South Florida by 351.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	South Florida spread	Total (over)	South Florida ML	Delaware State ML
TOM	-36.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-36.5 -115	61.5 -103	—	—

All 9 books

	South Florida spread	Total (over)	South Florida ML	Delaware State ML
TOM	-36.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-36.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-36.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-37 -114	61 -113	—	—
Bovada	-36.5 -115	61 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-36.5 -112	60.5 -115	—	—
FanDuel	-36.5 -114	60.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-36.5 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-36.5 -115	61.5 -103	—	—

Marked: best for the South Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware State +36.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 46% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -37.5, now -36.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Delaware State).

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Florida by 3521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Delaware State
FPI	doesn't rate Delaware State
Sagarin	-29.5	-4318
Massey	rates Delaware State and South Florida on different scales
Market (8 books)	-36.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware State Hornets +36.5	-110	+139	-10.5%

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Delaware State Hornets since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.1 consensus.

The line is -36.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCF

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says UCF by 17.5, our data says UCF by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 17.5.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore UCF →

Market

UCF by 17.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

UCF by 29.5

FPI

UCF by 16

Sagarin

UCF by 20.5

Massey

UCF by 20

Nasty Number

UCF by 180.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from UCF by 20.5 to UCF by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.50.5 pts over the market

Massey

50.70.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-17.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -110	50.5 +101	-1069	+712

All 11 books

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-17.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-17.5 -105	50.5 -110	-1100	+750
BetOnline.ag	-17.5 -105	50 -110	-1100	+709
BetRivers	-17.5 -108	50 -114	-1115	+600
BetUS	-17.5 -105	50 -110	-1100	+700
Bovada	-17 -115	50 -110	-1100	+650
DraftKings	-17.5 -108	50.5 -105	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-17.5 -106	50.5 -105	-1200	+720
LowVig.ag	-17.5 -101	50 -108	-1100	+709
MyBookie.ag	-17.5 -110	50 -110	-1262	+693
Pinnacle	-17 -110	50.5 +101	-1069	+712

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF -17.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

UCF to win · -1100

We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia State).

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.2 consensus.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUCF by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-29.5	-4276
FPI	-16.0	-605
Sagarin	-20.5	-1089
Massey	-20.0	-1036
Market (10 books)	-17.5	-735

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	50.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights -17.5	-105	-126	+4.6%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	-1100	-795	priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-18 18:56.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersNevada at Middle Tennessee

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says Nevada by 3.5, our data says Nevada by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore Middle Tennessee →

Market

Nevada by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Nevada by 11.5

FPI

Nevada by 8

Sagarin

Nevada by 5

Massey

Nevada by 3.5

Nasty Number

Nevada by 4.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.41.1 pts under the market

Massey

482.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	50.5 -110	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -103 49¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+4 -110	50.5 -102	+154	-176

All 12 books

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	50.5 -110	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -103 49¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
BetMGM	+3.5 -108	50.5 -108	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	50.5 -110	+149	-170
BetRivers	+4.5 -112	50.5 -115	+145	-180
BetUS	+3.5 -110	50.5 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+4 -115	50 -110	+155	-180
DraftKings	+3.5 -105	50.5 -108	+150	-180
FanDuel	+3.5 -110	49.5 -115	+140	-170
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -101	50.5 -108	+149	-170
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	50 -110	+158	-196
Pinnacle	+4 -110	50.5 -102	+154	-176

Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada -3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Nevada to win · -170 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee).

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+11.5	+351
FPI	+8.0	+238
Sagarin	+5.0	+174
Massey	+3.5	+144
Market (10 books)	+3.5	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack -3.5	-115	-101	-3.3%
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	-170	-160	-1.4%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +160 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersTroy at Missouri

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says Missouri by 27.5, our data says Missouri by 26.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri by 27.5.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 27.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Missouri by 24.5

FPI

Missouri by 23.5

Sagarin

Missouri by 26.5

Massey

Missouri by 23.5

Nasty Number

Missouri by 26.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Missouri by 27 to Missouri by 27.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.10.4 pts under the market

Massey

50.51 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Troy ML
TOM	-27.5 -105	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -107 50¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
Pinnacle	-27 -110	50 -107	—	+1779

All 14 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Troy ML
TOM	-27.5 -105	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -107 50¢	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
BetMGM	-27 -110	49.5 -110	—	+1900
BetOnline.ag	-27.5 -105	49.5 -110	—	+1592
BetRivers	-27 -110	50.5 -110	—	+1700
BetUS	-27.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-27 -115	50 -110	—	+1300
Caesars	-27.5 -106	49.5 -115	—	+1750
DraftKings	-27.5 -105	49.5 -108	—	+1700
Fanatics	-27 -110	49.5 -110	—	+1800
FanDuel	-26.5 -115	50.5 -106	—	+1600
LowVig.ag	-27.5 -101	49.5 -108	—	+1592
MyBookie.ag	-27 -110	50 -110	—	+1455
Pinnacle	-27 -110	50 -107	—	+1779

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Troy +27.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Troy to win · +1700

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.1 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 26.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.5	-1945
FPI	-23.5	-1665
Sagarin	-26.5	-2778
Massey	-23.5	-1752
Market (12 books)	-27.5	-1767

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Troy Trojans +27.5	-115	+140	-11.9%
Moneyline	Troy Trojans ML	+1700	+2669	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -27.1 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State CowboysMurray State at Oklahoma State

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says Oklahoma State by 55, our data says Oklahoma State by 50.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma State by 55.

The spread

← more Murray State than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 55TOM, -115

The Four

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 39.5

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 50.54.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Oklahoma State by 56.5 to Oklahoma State by 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Murray State ML
TOM	-55 -115	70.5 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-56 -104	70.5 -111	—	—

All 9 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	Murray State ML
TOM	-55 -115	70.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-56.5 -108	70.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-55 -115	70.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-55.5 -112	70.5 -112	—	—
Bovada	-56 -105	70.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-56.5 -105	70.5 -108	—	—
FanDuel	-55.5 -122	70.5 -114	—	—
LowVig.ag	-55 -115	70.5 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-56 -104	70.5 -111	—	—

Marked: best for the Oklahoma State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Murray State +55.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 71 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Across the books: opened -57.5, now -56.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Murray State).

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -55.0 here against -55.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 50.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Murray State
FPI	doesn't rate Murray State
Sagarin	-39.5	—
Massey	rates Murray State and Oklahoma State on different scales
Market (8 books)	-55.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	70.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Murray State Racers +55.0	-105	-246	+19.9%

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Murray State Racers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread -55.0 here against -55.9 consensus.

The line is -55.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at Rice

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says Western Michigan by 9, our data says Western Michigan by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 9, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Rice →

Market

Western Michigan by 9TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

Western Michigan by 10.5

FPI

Western Michigan by 13

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 7

Massey

Western Michigan by 7.5

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 90 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 10.5 to Western Michigan by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

40.13.4 pts under the market

Massey

45.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+9 -113	43.5 -115	+265	-355
Kalshi	+9.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -112 51¢	+296 24¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+9 -107	44 -104	+307	-377

All 12 books

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+9 -113	43.5 -115	+265	-355
Kalshi	+9.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -112 51¢	+296 24¢	-340 76¢
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	43.5 -112	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9 -113	43.5 -115	+285	-355
BetRivers	+9.5 -112	43.5 -120	+310	-420
BetUS	+9 -110	43.5 -115	+285	-355
Bovada	+9 -110	43.5 -115	+295	-390
DraftKings	+8.5 -108	43.5 -115	+285	-360
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	43.5 -114	+270	-345
LowVig.ag	+9 -109	43.5 -114	+285	-355
MyBookie.ag	+9 -110	43.5 -110	+295	-391
Pinnacle	+9 -107	44 -104	+307	-377

Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -9.0 · -107 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -355 at TOM

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+10.5	+320
FPI	+13.0	+431
Sagarin	+7.0	+209
Massey	+7.5	+221
Market (10 books)	+9.0	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -9.0	-107	+109	-3.9%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-355	-264	-5.5%
Total	Under 43.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UConn Huskies at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesUConn at Southern Miss

CFB 6:00pm

No bet

market says UConn by 3, our data says UConn by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UConn by 3, the Nasty Number says UConn by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Southern Miss →

Market

UConn by 3TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

UConn by 7

FPI

Southern Miss by 6

Sagarin

UConn by 3.5

Massey

UConn by 3.5

Nasty Number

UConn by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UConn by 3.5 to UConn by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.21.7 pts over the market

Massey

55.81.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

561.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	UConn ML
TOM	+3 -111	54.5 -110	+122	-147
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	54.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
Pinnacle	+3 -101	54 -115	+138	-156

All 12 books

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	UConn ML
TOM	+3 -111	54.5 -110	+122	-147
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	54.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
BetMGM	+3 -108	54.5 -110	+130	-155
BetOnline.ag	+3 -111	54.5 -110	+127	-147
BetRivers	+3 -107	54.5 -114	+130	-162
BetUS	+3 -110	54.5 -110	+134	-155
Bovada	+3 -105	54.5 -110	+135	-160
DraftKings	+3 -105	54.5 -112	+136	-162
FanDuel	+3.5 -120	54.5 -110	+136	-164
LowVig.ag	+3 -107	54.5 -108	+127	-147
MyBookie.ag	+3 -105	54.5 -110	+133	-164
Pinnacle	+3 -101	54 -115	+138	-156

Marked: best for the Southern Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn -3.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

UConn to win · -147 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 94°F.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +127 here against +144 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUConn by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.0	+207
FPI	-6.0	-185
Sagarin	+3.5	+146
Massey	+3.5	+142
Market (10 books)	+3.0	+127

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UConn Huskies -3.0	-109	-100	-2.1%
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	-147	-139	-1.4%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus; moneyline +127 here against +144 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Washington Eagles at Washington HuskiesEastern Washington at Washington

CFB 6:15pm

No bet

market says Washington by 43, our data says Washington by 41

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 43.

The spread

← more Eastern Washington than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 43TOM, -112

The Four

Sagarin

Washington by 33

Nasty Number

Washington by 412.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Washington by 42.5 to Washington by 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Eastern Washington ML
TOM	-43 -112	59 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-42.5 -116	58.5 -107	—	—

All 11 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Eastern Washington ML
TOM	-43 -112	59 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	—
BetMGM	-43 -108	58.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-43 -112	59 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-42.5 -112	58 -113	—	—
Bovada	-42.5 -115	58.5 -105	—	—
Caesars	-42.5 -112	58.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-42.5 -110	58.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-42.5 -112	58.5 -106	—	—
LowVig.ag	-43 -112	59 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-42.5 -116	58.5 -107	—	—

Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eastern Washington +43.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 66 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -44.5, now -42.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Eastern Washington).

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -43.0 here against -42.6 consensus.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 4121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Eastern Washington
FPI	doesn't rate Eastern Washington
Sagarin	-33.0	—
Massey	rates Eastern Washington and Washington on different scales
Market (9 books)	-43.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Eastern Washington Eagles +43.0	-108	-196	+14.3%

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Eastern Washington Eagles since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -43.0 here against -42.6 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.5 consensus.

The line is -43.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska CornhuskersNorth Dakota at Nebraska

CFB 6:15pm

No bet

market says Nebraska by 27.5, our data says Nebraska by 26

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 27.5.

The spread

← more North Dakota than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Nebraska by 27.5TOM, -115

The Four

Sagarin

Nebraska by 20

Nasty Number

Nebraska by 261.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Nebraska by 24 to Nebraska by 27.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	North Dakota ML
TOM	-27.5 -115	56 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5	-2042 95¢	+1464 6¢
Pinnacle	-27.5 -110	55.5 -114	—	+1244

All 10 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	North Dakota ML
TOM	-27.5 -115	56 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5	-2042 95¢	+1464 6¢
BetMGM	-27.5 -110	55.5 -115	-3000	+1550
BetOnline.ag	-27.5 -115	56 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-27.5 -109	55 -115	—	+1500
Bovada	-28 -110	56 -105	—	+1200
DraftKings	-27.5 -112	55.5 -115	-2800	+1300
FanDuel	-27.5 -114	55.5 -114	—	+1600
LowVig.ag	-27.5 -115	56 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-27.5 -110	55.5 -114	—	+1244

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Dakota +27.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

North Dakota to win · +1500

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -24.5, now -27.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Nebraska).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $396 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 2621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate North Dakota
FPI	doesn't rate North Dakota
Sagarin	-20.0	-1057
Massey	rates North Dakota and Nebraska on different scales
Market (8 books)	-27.5	-1374

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Dakota Fighting Hawks +27.5	-105	+133	-8.3%
Moneyline	North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML	+1500	+2468	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 6.1.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado State

CFB 6:30pm

No bet

market says BYU by 17.5, our data says BYU by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 17.5.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore Colorado State →

Market

BYU by 17.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

BYU by 21.5

FPI

BYU by 18.5

Sagarin

BYU by 18

Massey

BYU by 19

Nasty Number

BYU by 180.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 20 to BYU by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.27.8 pts under the market

Massey

54.41.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.057% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

48.84.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	BYU ML
TOM	+17.5 -112	53 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+17 -107	52 -116	+667	-980

All 13 books

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	BYU ML
TOM	+17.5 -112	53 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+17.5 -112	52.5 -110	+675	-1000
BetOnline.ag	+17.5 -112	53 -110	+709	-1100
BetRivers	+17.5 -110	53 -109	+600	-1000
BetUS	+17.5 -110	53 -110	+700	-1100
Bovada	+17 -110	52.5 -110	+625	-1000
Caesars	+17.5 -106	53 -110	+675	-1000
DraftKings	+17.5 -115	52.5 -110	+625	-950
Fanatics	+17 -110	52.5 -110	+650	-950
FanDuel	+17.5 -106	52.5 -112	+680	-1100
LowVig.ag	+17.5 -108	53 -108	+709	-1100
MyBookie.ag	+17.5 -110	52.5 -110	+635	-1009
Pinnacle	+17 -107	52 -116	+667	-980

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

BYU -17.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

BYU to win · -1000

We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +17.2 consensus.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+21.5	+1237
FPI	+18.5	+852
Sagarin	+18.0	+788
Massey	+19.0	+918
Market (12 books)	+17.5	+695

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	48.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -17.5	-108	-122	+3.1%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-1000	-766	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +17.2 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.3 consensus.

The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at Northwestern

CFB 6:30pm

No bet

market says Northwestern by 3.5, our data says Northwestern by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Northwestern by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Northwestern by 6.5

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Northwestern by 10

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 40.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

44.43.6 pts under the market

Weather

-1.053% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

43.44.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Colorado ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	48 -105	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -121 53¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	48 -106	-177	+155

All 12 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Colorado ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	48 -105	-180	+150
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -121 53¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -108	47.5 -112	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -105	48 -105	-180	+157
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	48 -110	-190	+150
BetUS	-3.5 -105	48 -105	-180	+155
Bovada	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-180	+155
DraftKings	-3.5 -105	47.5 -112	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	48.5 -105	-178	+146
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -101	48 -103	-180	+157
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	48 -110	-186	+150
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	48 -106	-177	+155

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -3.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Northwestern to win · -180 at TOM

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 44. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-196
FPI	PK	-102
Sagarin	-10.0	-302
Massey	rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	43.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -3.5	-105	+103	-2.0%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	-180	-154	-3.6%
Total	Under 48.0	-115	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at Maryland

CFB 6:30pm

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 2.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 2

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Maryland →

Market

Virginia Tech by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

Virginia Tech by 2

FPI

Virginia Tech by 2.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Maryland by 3

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 20.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia Tech by 3 to Virginia Tech by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.63.9 pts under the market

Massey

55.31.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.51 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	53.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	53.5 -103	+122	-138

All 13 books

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	53.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -103 49¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
BetMGM	+3 -115	53.5 -108	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	53.5 -110	+125	-145
BetRivers	+3 -117	53.5 -112	+120	-150
BetUS	+2.5 +100	53.5 -110	+125	-145
Bovada	+2.5 +100	53 -110	+120	-140
Caesars	+2.5 -102	53.5 -112	+121	-143
DraftKings	+2.5 -102	53.5 -110	+120	-142
FanDuel	+2.5 -102	53.5 -108	+125	-150
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +104	53.5 -108	+125	-145
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	53.5 -110	+120	-147
Pinnacle	+2.5 +102	53.5 -103	+122	-138

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Maryland to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Virginia Tech).

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.0	+121
FPI	+2.5	+131
Sagarin	PK	-101
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (11 books)	+2.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +2.5	+100	+104	-1.1%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+120	+126	-1.1%
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-12 22:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre Dame

CFB 6:30pm

No bet

market says Notre Dame by 29.5, our data says Notre Dame by 28

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.5.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 29.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Notre Dame by 27.5

FPI

Notre Dame by 26.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 24

Massey

Notre Dame by 23

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 281.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.42.4 pts over the market

Massey

52.60.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.51.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-29.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-29 -106	52 +100	—	—

All 13 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-29.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-29 -108	51.5 -118	—	+2200
BetOnline.ag	-29.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-29.5 -110	51.5 -112	—	—
BetUS	-28.5 -110	52 -110	—	—
Bovada	-29 -110	52 -105	—	+1600
Caesars	-29.5 -107	51.5 -118	—	+1750
DraftKings	-28.5 -115	51.5 -112	—	+1800
Fanatics	-29 -110	51.5 -115	—	+2000
FanDuel	-29.5 -106	52.5 -105	—	+2000
LowVig.ag	-29.5 -106	52 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-29 -110	52 -110	—	+1450
Pinnacle	-29 -106	52 +100	—	—

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +29.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · +1800

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -29.5, now -29.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State).

TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 2830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-27.5	-3245
FPI	-26.5	-2750
Sagarin	-24.0	-1786
Massey	-23.0	-1622
Market (12 books)	-29.5	-1872

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	53.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +29.5	-110	+134	-9.7%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+1800	+3529	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-17 08:02.

TOM: spread -29.5 here against -29.1 consensus.

The line is -29.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at Oklahoma

CFB 6:30pm

No bet

market says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 21

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Oklahoma by 21.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Oklahoma by 16.5

FPI

Oklahoma by 17.5

Sagarin

Oklahoma by 22.5

Massey

Oklahoma by 21

Nasty Number

Oklahoma by 210.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

440.5 pts under the market

Massey

49.95.4 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

46.31.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	New Mexico ML
TOM	-21.5 -105	44.5 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-21.5 +101 48¢	44.5 -126 54¢	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
Pinnacle	-21 -109	45.5 -108	-1797	+1046

All 14 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	New Mexico ML
TOM	-21.5 -105	44.5 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-21.5 +101 48¢	44.5 -126 54¢	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
BetMGM	-21 -115	45.5 -108	-2000	+1150
BetOnline.ag	-21.5 -105	44.5 -120	-2100	+1069
BetRivers	-21 -117	45 -115	—	+1300
BetUS	-21 -110	46 -110	-2100	+1075
Bovada	-21 -115	45.5 -110	-2000	+950
Caesars	-21.5 -105	45.5 -113	-2500	+1100
DraftKings	-21.5 -102	45.5 -112	-2100	+1100
Fanatics	-21.5 -105	45.5 -110	-1800	+1050
FanDuel	-21.5 -105	45.5 -105	-3000	+1200
LowVig.ag	-21.5 -101	44.5 -119	-2100	+1069
MyBookie.ag	-21 -110	45.5 -110	-2000	+930
Pinnacle	-21 -109	45.5 -108	-1797	+1046

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico +21.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

New Mexico to win · +1075

We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 44.5 · -120 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 96°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -23.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward New Mexico).

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.1 consensus.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma by 2121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-16.5	-640
FPI	-17.5	-726
Sagarin	-22.5	-1495
Massey	-21.0	-1178
Market (12 books)	-21.5	-1106

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	46.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico Lobos +21.5	-115	+122	-8.5%
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos ML	+1075	+1188	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 44.5	-120	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward New Mexico Lobos since 09-13 21:50; total has moved down 2.4.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.1 consensus; total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at Tennessee

CFB 6:45pm

No bet

market says Tennessee by 35, our data says Tennessee by 34.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Tennessee by 35TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Tennessee by 33

FPI

Tennessee by 30.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 30.5

Massey

Tennessee by 35.5

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 34.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 34.5 to Tennessee by 35. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

61TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.70.3 pts under the market

Massey

58.42.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.61.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60 to 61. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Kennesaw State ML
TOM	-35 -115	61 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-35.5 -101	60 -115	—	—

All 13 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Kennesaw State ML
TOM	-35 -115	61 -105	—	—
BetMGM	-35.5 -105	60.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35 -115	61 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-35.5 -112	60 -112	—	—
BetUS	-35 -110	61.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-35.5 -105	60 -115	—	—
Caesars	-35.5 -107	60.5 -109	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -108	60.5 -115	—	+2200
Fanatics	-35.5 -105	61 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -105	59.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-35 -111	61 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-35 -110	61 -110	—	+1725
Pinnacle	-35.5 -101	60 -115	—	—

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +35.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Kennesaw State to win · +2200

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 61.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.4 consensus.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 60.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 34.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-33.0	—
FPI	-30.5	—
Sagarin	-30.5	—
Massey	-35.5	—
Market (12 books)	-35.0	-2436

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.0	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +35.0	-105	+149	-11.0%
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+2200	—	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 61.0	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -35.0 here against -35.4 consensus; total 61.0 here against 60.3 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCU

CFB 7:00pm

No bet

market says TCU by 18.5, our data says TCU by 19

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 18.5.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore TCU →

Market

TCU by 18.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

TCU by 20.5

FPI

TCU by 17.5

Sagarin

TCU by 20

Massey

TCU by 23

Nasty Number

TCU by 190.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from TCU by 20.5 to TCU by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.50.5 pts over the market

Massey

56.80.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-18.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-19 -110	56 -112	-1215	+785

All 12 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-18.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-19 -110	56.5 -108	-1200	+850
BetOnline.ag	-18.5 -115	56 -110	-1250	+776
BetRivers	-19.5 -110	56.5 -113	-1430	+750
BetUS	-18.5 -115	56 -110	-1250	+800
Bovada	-19.5 -110	56 -115	-1300	+725
Caesars	-18.5 -113	56.5 -107	-1450	+850
DraftKings	-18.5 -115	56.5 -105	-1350	+800
FanDuel	-19.5 -105	56.5 -105	-1300	+760
LowVig.ag	-18.5 -111	56 -108	-1250	+776
MyBookie.ag	-19 -110	56 -110	-1262	+693
Pinnacle	-19 -110	56 -112	-1215	+785

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU -18.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

TCU to win · -1262

We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Arkansas State).

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTCU by 1930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.5	-1122
FPI	-17.5	-728
Sagarin	-20.0	-1061
Massey	-23.0	-1587
Market (11 books)	-18.5	-816

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	TCU Horned Frogs -18.5	-115	-130	+3.0%
Moneyline	TCU Horned Frogs ML	-1262	-909	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-14 08:04; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -19.0 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden HurricaneEast Texas A&M at Tulsa

CFB 7:00pm

No bet

market says Tulsa by 42, our data says Tulsa by 37

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulsa by 42.

The spread

← more East Texas A&M than the bookmore Tulsa →

Market

Tulsa by 42

The Four

Sagarin

Tulsa by 25

Nasty Number

Tulsa by 375.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tulsa spread	Total (over)	Tulsa ML	East Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-42.5 +100	56.5 -107	—	—

All 7 books

	Tulsa spread	Total (over)	Tulsa ML	East Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	56.5 -107 50¢	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-41 -110	56.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	-42.5 +100	56 -115	—	—
DraftKings	-42.5 +100	56.5 -108	—	—
FanDuel	-41.5 -114	56.5 -108	—	—
LowVig.ag	-41 -110	56.5 -105	—	—
Pinnacle	-42.5 +100	56.5 -107	—	—

Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Texas A&M +42.0 · -110

Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 94°F.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onTulsa by 3730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate East Texas A&M
FPI	doesn't rate East Texas A&M
Sagarin	-25.0	-2146
Massey	rates East Texas A&M and Tulsa on different scales
Market (6 books)	-42.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Texas A&M Lions +42.0	-110	-253	+19.3%

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at Texas

CFB 7:00pm

No bet

market says Texas by 30, our data says Texas by 29

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 30TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Texas by 25

FPI

Texas by 36

Sagarin

Texas by 28.5

Massey

Texas by 22.5

Nasty Number

Texas by 291 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.91.9 pts over the market

Massey

57.31.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-30 -110	59 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+3021 3¢
Pinnacle	-30 -109	58 -114	—	—

All 14 books

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-30 -110	59 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -112 51¢	—	+3021 3¢
BetMGM	-30 -112	58.5 -110	—	+2200
BetOnline.ag	-30 -110	59 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-30.5 -110	58 -115	—	—
BetUS	-30 -110	59 -110	—	—
Bovada	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—
Caesars	-30 -110	58.5 -109	—	+1800
DraftKings	-29.5 -112	58.5 -110	—	+1800
Fanatics	-30 -110	58.5 -110	—	+2200
FanDuel	-29.5 -110	58.5 -110	—	+2200
LowVig.ag	-30 -106	59 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-30 -110	58.5 -110	—	+1350
Pinnacle	-30 -109	58 -114	—	—

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA +30.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

UTSA to win · +2200

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 2930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-2162
FPI	-36.0	—
Sagarin	-28.5	-3703
Massey	-22.5	-1513
Market (12 books)	-30.0	-1940

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	59.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTSA Roadrunners +30.0	-110	+143	-11.2%
Moneyline	UTSA Roadrunners ML	+2200	+4032	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.0	-105	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise State

CFB 9:00pm

No bet

market says Boise State by 28, our data says Boise State by 23.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 28.

The spread

← more South Dakota than the bookmore Boise State →

Market

Boise State by 28TOM, -115

The Four

Sagarin

Boise State by 13.5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 23.54.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	South Dakota ML
TOM	-28 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-28 -114	60 -113	—	+1312

All 9 books

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	South Dakota ML
TOM	-28 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-28 -110	60.5 -108	-3000	+1700
BetOnline.ag	-28 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-28.5 -112	60.5 -110	—	+1400
Bovada	-28 -115	60.5 -110	—	+1200
DraftKings	-28.5 -102	59.5 -112	-2800	+1300
FanDuel	-27.5 -118	59.5 -114	—	+1400
LowVig.ag	-28 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-28 -114	60 -113	—	+1312

Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Dakota +28.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

South Dakota to win · +1355

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -24.0, now -28.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Boise State).

The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 23.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate South Dakota
FPI	doesn't rate South Dakota
Sagarin	-13.5	-458
Massey	rates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales
Market (8 books)	-28.0	-1406

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Dakota Coyotes +28.0	-105	-104	-0.2%
Moneyline	South Dakota Coyotes ML	+1355	+1757	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-17 08:02; total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

The line is -28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at Arizona

CFB 9:30pm

Under 50.5

should be 48.9 · getting 1.6 pts

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Arizona →

Market

Arizona by 34TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Arizona by 29.5

FPI

Arizona by 26

Sagarin

Arizona by 27.5

Massey

Arizona by 27

Nasty Number

Arizona by 322 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Under -115

The Four

SP+ pace

46.54 pts under the market

Massey

446.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.35.2 pts under the market

Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Northern Illinois ML
TOM	-34 -110	50.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-34 -105	50 -114	—	—

All 12 books

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Northern Illinois ML
TOM	-34 -110	50.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -112 51¢	—	—
BetMGM	-34.5 -108	50.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34 -110	50.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-34.5 -112	51 -113	—	—
BetUS	-33.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-34 -110	50 -115	—	—
Caesars	-34 -115	50.5 -107	—	—
DraftKings	-33.5 -118	50.5 -112	—	+2000
FanDuel	-34.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-34 -106	50.5 -103	—	—
Pinnacle	-34 -105	50 -114	—	—

Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +34.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Northern Illinois to win · +4500

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 44. That's 5.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Northern Illinois).

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 3230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-29.5	-4276
FPI	-26.0	-2535
Sagarin	-27.5	-3250
Massey	-27.0	-2912
Market (10 books)	-34.0	-2864

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	45.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Illinois Huskies +34.0	-110	+135	-9.9%
Moneyline	Northern Illinois Huskies ML	+4500	+6637	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-115	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 09-13 08:31.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento State

CFB 9:30pm

No bet

market says North Dakota State by 25.5, our data says North Dakota State by 24

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 25.5.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Sacramento State →

Market

North Dakota State by 25.5TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

North Dakota State by 23.5

FPI

North Dakota State by 23.5

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 19

Massey

North Dakota State by 17

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 241.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 25.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.60.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.23.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.91.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+25.5 -109	50.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	+26.5 -114	50.5 -109	+1813	—

All 12 books

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+25.5 -109	50.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+26.5 -118	50.5 -112	+1800	—
BetOnline.ag	+25.5 -109	50.5 -110	+1500	—
BetRivers	+26.5 -113	50.5 -113	—	—
BetUS	+25.5 -110	50 -110	—	—
Bovada	+26.5 -120	50.5 -110	+1300	—
Caesars	+25.5 +100	50.5 -114	+1800	—
DraftKings	+26.5 -105	50.5 -118	+1800	—
FanDuel	+26.5 -110	50.5 -115	+1600	—
LowVig.ag	+25.5 -105	50.5 -108	+1500	—
MyBookie.ag	+26.5 -110	50.5 -110	+1422	—
Pinnacle	+26.5 -114	50.5 -109	+1813	—

Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +25.5 · -109 at TOM

Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +1600

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State).

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +26.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 2430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.5	+1752
FPI	+23.5	+1684
Sagarin	+19.0	+887
Massey	+17.0	+710
Market (11 books)	+25.5	+1760

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +25.5	-109	+125	-7.6%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+1600	+1887	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +26.3 consensus.

The line is +25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José State

CFB 10:00pm

No bet

market says Fresno State by 4.5, our data says Fresno State by 5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore San José State →

Market

Fresno State by 4.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Fresno State by 9.5

FPI

Fresno State by 8

Sagarin

Fresno State by 4

Massey

Fresno State by 5.5

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 7.5 to Fresno State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.44.6 pts under the market

Massey

502 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.71.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	48 -106	+166	-196
Pinnacle	+5.5 -108	48.5 -106	+176	-202

All 12 books

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	+4.5 -105	48 -106	+166	-196
BetMGM	+5.5 -112	48.5 -105	+170	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -105	48 -106	+171	-196
BetRivers	+5.5 -108	48.5 -115	+185	-240
BetUS	+5.5 -110	48 -110	+167	-195
Bovada	+5.5 -110	48.5 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+5.5 -109	48.5 -109	+172	-209
DraftKings	+5.5 -112	48.5 -105	+170	-205
FanDuel	+4.5 -105	48.5 -114	+176	-210
LowVig.ag	+4.5 -101	48 -104	+171	-196
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	48.5 -110	+182	-228
Pinnacle	+5.5 -108	48.5 -106	+176	-202

Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fresno State -4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · -196 at TOM

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 59.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -114 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward San José State).

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+279
FPI	+8.0	+233
Sagarin	+4.0	+155
Massey	+5.5	+176
Market (11 books)	+4.5	+173

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs -4.5	-115	+102	-4.0%
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	-196	-172	-2.9%
Total	Under 48.0	-114	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-16 18:06; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon State

CFB 10:00pm

No bet

market says Oregon State by 17.5, our data says Oregon State by 15

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Montana than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 17.5TOM, -108

The Four

Sagarin

Oregon State by 5

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 152.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	Montana ML
TOM	-17.5 -108	56 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -108	55.5 -114	-950	+554

All 9 books

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	Montana ML
TOM	-17.5 -108	56 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-17.5 -108	55.5 -112	-900	+625
BetOnline.ag	-17.5 -108	56 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-17 -109	56 -113	-910	+540
Bovada	-17.5 -110	56 -110	-1000	+625
DraftKings	-17.5 -105	55.5 -105	-850	+575
FanDuel	-17.5 -110	56.5 -105	-1100	+680
LowVig.ag	-17.5 -108	56 -115	—	—
Pinnacle	-17 -108	55.5 -114	-950	+554

Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Montana +17.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Montana to win · +599

We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 7.7 toward Oregon State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.2 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 1521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Montana
FPI	doesn't rate Montana
Sagarin	-5.0	-169
Massey	rates Montana and Oregon State on different scales
Market (8 books)	-17.5	-610

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Montana Grizzlies +17.5	-112	-115	+0.6%
Moneyline	Montana Grizzlies ML	+599	+527	priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 7.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -17.2 consensus; total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLA

CFB 10:00pm

No bet

market says UCLA by 13.5, our data says UCLA by 12.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UCLA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 12.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 13.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

UCLA by 12.5

FPI

UCLA by 9.5

Sagarin

UCLA by 11

Massey

UCLA by 10.5

Nasty Number

UCLA by 12.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UCLA by 14 to UCLA by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

53.30.8 pts over the market

Massey

54.62.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

541.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-13.5 -113	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 +101 48¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-14 +101	53 -104	-652	+484

All 13 books

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-13.5 -113	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 +101 48¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
BetMGM	-14 -108	52.5 -110	-625	+475
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -113	52.5 -115	-625	+461
BetRivers	-14 -109	52 -112	-770	+500
BetUS	-13.5 -115	53 -110	-625	+465
Bovada	-13.5 -115	52.5 -115	-675	+460
Caesars	-14 -110	52.5 -114	-675	+475
DraftKings	-14 -108	52.5 -112	-650	+470
FanDuel	-13.5 -122	52.5 -115	-670	+470
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -109	52.5 -114	-625	+461
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	52.5 -110	-625	+440
Pinnacle	-14 +101	53 -104	-652	+484

Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +13.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +470

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 12.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.5	-395
FPI	-9.5	-285
Sagarin	-11.0	-336
Massey	-10.5	-310
Market (11 books)	-13.5	-500

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	54.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +13.5	-107	+101	-1.9%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+470	+404	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-115	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.9 consensus; total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe WarhawksSoutheastern Louisiana at UL Monroe

CFB 3:30pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover Southeastern Louisiana Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Southeastern Louisiana ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10 -110	48.5 -105	-453	+313

All 9 books

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Southeastern Louisiana ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-10 -110	48.5 -108	-400	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -118	48.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-10 -113	47.5 -117	-480	+340
Bovada	-10 -110	48 -110	-435	+325
DraftKings	-9.5 -118	48.5 -105	—	—
FanDuel	-9.5 -115	48.5 -108	-400	+310
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -118	48.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-10 -110	48.5 -105	-453	+313

Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Southeastern Louisiana). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	not an FBS matchup
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (8 books)	-10.0	-340

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Southeastern Louisiana Lions since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 0.9.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis TigersUT Martin at Memphis

CFB 6:00pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more UT Martin than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 33.5TOM, -110

The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UT Martin ML
TOM	-33.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-34.5 -110	57 -112	—	—

All 9 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UT Martin ML
TOM	-33.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-34 -110	57.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-33.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-34 -110	56.5 -114	—	—
Bovada	-34.5 -110	57 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-34.5 -108	57.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-33.5 -110	58.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-33.5 -110	58 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-34.5 -110	57 -112	—	—

Marked: best for the Memphis side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 97°F.

Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward UT Martin).

TOM: spread -33.5 here against -34.2 consensus.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.2 consensus.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate UT Martin
FPI	doesn't rate UT Martin
Sagarin	doesn't rate UT Martin
Massey	rates UT Martin and Memphis on different scales
Market (8 books)	-33.5	-3901

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UT Martin Skyhawks since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread -33.5 here against -34.2 consensus; total 58.0 here against 57.2 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Nicholls State Colonels at Sam Houston State BearkatsNicholls at Sam Houston

CFB 6:00pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Nicholls than the bookmore Sam Houston →

Market

Sam Houston by 21

The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -18.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Nicholls
FPI	doesn't rate Nicholls
Sagarin	doesn't rate Nicholls
Massey	rates Nicholls and Sam Houston on different scales
Market (8 books)	-21.0	-836

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-14 08:04; total has moved up 0.7.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Tomorrow

14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Eagles at Titans, Titans +7.5.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Titans +7.5

should be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Titans +7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 7.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Eagles by 61.6 pts our side

FPI

Eagles by 52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Eagles by 52.3 pts our side

Massey

Eagles by 6.51.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eagles by 70.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39TOM

The Four

Massey

44.55.5 pts over the market

FPI

40.81.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.63.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38.5 to 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5 -121 53¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -102	+268	-323

All 14 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5 -121 53¢	39.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	-340 76¢
BetMGM	+7 -105	39.5 -108	+270	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+274	-340
BetRivers	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+265	-345
BetUS	+7.5 -115	39 -110	+275	-340
Bovada	+7 -110	39.5 -115	+265	-330
Caesars	+7 -109	39.5 -109	+270	-335
DraftKings	+7 -108	39.5 -110	+260	-325
Fanatics	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-340
FanDuel	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+280	-350
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -114	39 -107	+274	-340
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-350
Pinnacle	+7.5 -125	40 -102	+268	-323

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +265 at TOM

We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 25.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Landon Dickerson (G, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 3 more.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+6.0	+207
FPI	+5.0	+185
Sagarin	+5.0	+189
Massey	+6.5	+218
Market (12 books)	+7.5	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.5	-115	-129	+2.8%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+265	+240	+2.0%
Total	Over 39.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.7 consensus.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Under 48

weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total

A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 48, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bears by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 8.5

FPI

Bears by 8.5

Sagarin

Bears by 6

Massey

Bears by 3.5

Nasty Number

Bears by 50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Bears by 5.5 to Bears by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

50.92.9 pts over the market

FPI

41.56.5 pts under the market

Weather

-3.520 mph wind, takes 3.5 points off

Nasty Number

42.75.3 pts under the market

Under 48 is a weather call. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	48 -113	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	48.5 +101 48¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	48.5 +103	-215	+186

All 14 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-4.5 -110	48 -113	-215	+175
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	48.5 +101 48¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
BetMGM	-4.5 -110	47.5 -118	-220	+180
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	48 -113	-215	+183
BetRivers	-4.5 -113	48.5 -108	-230	+185
BetUS	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-215	+183
Bovada	—	—	-225	+185
Caesars	-4.5 -109	47.5 -115	-218	+183
DraftKings	-4.5 -118	47.5 -112	-225	+185
Fanatics	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-220	+180
FanDuel	-4.5 -110	47.5 -120	-220	+184
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -103	48 -110	-215	+183
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	48 -110	-224	+180
Pinnacle	-4.5 -105	48.5 +103	-215	+186

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -4.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -215 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -107 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 3.5 off. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 68°F, 46% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Bears). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-203
FPI	-8.5	-214
Sagarin	-6.0	-152
Massey	-3.5	-116
Market (12 books)	-4.5	-206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	42.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -4.5	-110	+104	-3.3%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-215	-185	-3.3%
Total	Under 48.0	-107	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Chicago Bears since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

No bet

market says Broncos by 2.5, our data says Broncos by 1.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 2.5TOM, -119

The Four

nfelo

Broncos by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 3

Sagarin

Broncos by 1

Massey

Jaguars by 1

Nasty Number

Broncos by 1.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Broncos by 3 to Broncos by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.31.2 pts under the market

FPI

41.93.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.12.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -120	45.5 -107	-154	+136

All 14 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+128
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
BetMGM	-2.5 -125	45.5 -108	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -119	45.5 -110	-153	+133
BetRivers	-3 -105	45 -110	-155	+130
BetUS	-2 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+134
Bovada	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-2.5 -122	45.5 -110	-150	+127
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	45.5 -108	-148	+124
Fanatics	-2.5 -120	45.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-2.5 -120	45.5 -105	-148	+126
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	45.5 -107	-153	+133
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-155	+126
Pinnacle	-2.5 -120	45.5 -107	-154	+136

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · -101 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +128 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 27% chance of rain.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Jacksonville Jaguars has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-111
FPI	+3.0	+140
Sagarin	-1.0	-114
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+128	+124	+0.9%
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5	-101	-100	-0.2%
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 4, our data says Seahawks by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Seahawks by 4TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 5

FPI

Cardinals by 4.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 6.5

Massey

Seahawks by 1.5

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.94.4 pts over the market

FPI

37.92.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 +101	+168	-193

All 14 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+170	-200
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	41.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
BetMGM	+4 -112	41 -105	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -117	40.5 -113	+174	-200
BetRivers	+4 -113	41 -110	+175	-215
BetUS	+4 -115	41 -110	+170	-200
Bovada	+3.5 -110	41 -110	+165	-195
Caesars	+4 -114	40.5 -118	+174	-209
DraftKings	+3.5 +100	40.5 -115	+180	-218
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	41 -110	+165	-200
FanDuel	+4.5 -120	41.5 -102	+176	-210
LowVig.ag	+4 -113	40.5 -110	+174	-200
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	41 -110	+172	-216
Pinnacle	+4 -114	41.5 +101	+168	-193

Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +4.0 · -117 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Cardinals to win · +170 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Over 40.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Cardinals).

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks).

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+5.0	+254
FPI	-4.5	-128
Sagarin	+6.5	+297
Massey	+1.5	+162
Market (12 books)	+4.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.5	41.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+170	+159	+1.5%
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +4.0	-117	-115	-0.5%
Total	Over 40.5	-113	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.3.

TOM: total 40.5 here against 41.2 consensus.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

Raiders +6.5

should be Raiders +6.5 · was +9.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Chargers by 60.5 pts our side

FPI

Chargers by 6.5on the market

Sagarin

Chargers by 81.6 pts against us

Massey

Chargers by 4.51.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chargers by 6.50.1 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Raiders. Sagarin at Chargers by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

39.54 pts under the market

FPI

40.53 pts under the market

Nasty Number

403.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+237
Pinnacle	-6.5 -110	43 -118	-300	+251

All 13 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+237
BetMGM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-295	+240
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -115	43.5 -108	-297	+243
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	43.5 -112	-315	+245
BetUS	-7 +100	43.5 -110	-295	+245
Bovada	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-310	+255
Caesars	-6.5 -112	43.5 -113	-310	+245
DraftKings	-6.5 -118	43.5 -110	-310	+250
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+240
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	-300	+245
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -108	43.5 -105	-297	+243
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	43.5 -110	-310	+240
Pinnacle	-6.5 -110	43 -118	-300	+251

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Raiders to win · +237 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.8 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: KeAndre Lambert-Smith (WR, Chargers), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-209
FPI	-6.5	-217
Sagarin	-8.0	-274
Massey	-4.5	-178
Market (12 books)	-6.5	-284

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +6.5	-105	-113	+1.9%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+237	+221	+1.5%
Total	Under 43.5	-112	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 2.5, our data says Panthers by 2

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Panthers by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 2

FPI

Panthers by 4.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Falcons by 2

Nasty Number

Panthers by 20.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

Massey

49.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.55 pts under the market

Nasty Number

440.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +107	43.5 -106	+134	-151

All 14 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-150
Kalshi	+2.5 +101 48¢	43.5 -107 50¢	+124 43¢	-148 58¢
BetMGM	+2.5 -102	43.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-150
BetRivers	+3 -115	43.5 -109	+120	-143
BetUS	+2 +100	43.5 -110	+129	-150
Bovada	—	43.5 -110	+130	-150
Caesars	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-148
DraftKings	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+130	-155
Fanatics	+3 -115	43.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	43.5 -110	+122	-144
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +105	43.5 -107	+130	-150
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 +100	43.5 -110	+125	-153
Pinnacle	+2.5 +107	43.5 -106	+134	-151

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +2.5 · +100 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +125 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 38. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Panthers).

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	-109
FPI	+4.5	+126
Sagarin	PK	-139
Massey	-2.0	-171
Market (12 books)	+2.5	+131

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +2.5	+100	+103	-0.6%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+125	+127	-0.4%
Total	Over 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Ravens by 9, our data says Ravens by 9

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 9TOM, +101

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 9.5

FPI

Ravens by 8.5

Sagarin

Ravens by 9

Massey

Ravens by 8.5

Nasty Number

Ravens by 90 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

The Four

Massey

47.51.5 pts over the market

FPI

46.2on the market

Nasty Number

46.90.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	46 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +102	46.5 +101	-414	+332

All 14 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 +101	46 -110	-410	+300
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	45.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-8 -112	46 -108	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-9 +101	46 -110	-410	+324
BetRivers	-8.5 -107	46 -112	-435	+325
BetUS	-9 +100	46 -110	-410	+325
Bovada	-8 -110	46 -110	-435	+325
Caesars	-8.5 -109	45.5 -118	-400	+320
DraftKings	-8.5 -108	46.5 +102	-395	+310
Fanatics	-8 -110	46 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -105	46.5 -104	-430	+340
LowVig.ag	-9 +106	46 -107	-410	+324
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	46 -110	-420	+310
Pinnacle	-9 +102	46.5 +101	-414	+332

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +9.0 · -121 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · +300 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 20.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ravens).

Also out: T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens), Teddye Buchanan (LB, Ravens), Isaiah Stalbird (LB, Saints) and 1 more.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -392 here against -345 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-9.5	-340
FPI	-8.5	-286
Sagarin	-9.0	-310
Massey	-8.5	-295
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +9.0	-121	-115	-1.2%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+300	+306	-0.4%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-13 11:06.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.3 consensus; moneyline -392 here against -345 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 2.5TOM, -117

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2.5

FPI

Texans by 2.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2.5

Massey

Texans by 4

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texans by 3 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

51.45.9 pts over the market

FPI

46.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.93.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	45.5 -108	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +109	45.5 -111	-149	+132

All 14 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-2.5 -117	45.5 -108	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -112 51¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	45.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	45.5 -108	-150	+130
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	46 -110	-148	+120
BetUS	-2 -120	45.5 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-2.5 -120	45.5 -115	-150	+130
Caesars	-2.5 -113	45.5 -112	-152	+128
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	45.5 -110	-135	+114
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	45.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	45.5 -114	-134	+114
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -105	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	45.5 -110	-148	+120
Pinnacle	-3 +109	45.5 -111	-149	+132

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +2.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 45.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Texans -2.0 while Pinnacle is at Texans by 3.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-134
FPI	-2.5	-132
Sagarin	-2.5	-135
Massey	-4.0	-161
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	48.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals +2.5	-103	+109	-2.9%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	+120	+135	-2.9%
Total	Over 45.5	-108	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Buccaneers by 9, our data says Buccaneers by 8.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 9TOM, +103

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 8.5

FPI

Buccaneers by 9.5

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 7.5

Massey

Buccaneers by 6

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 8.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

44.53 pts over the market

FPI

40.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 +103	41.5 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-9 +105	42 +103	-407	+327

All 14 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 +103	41.5 -110	-420	+310
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-9 -112	41.5 -108	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-9 +103	41.5 -110	-420	+330
BetRivers	-8 -112	41.5 -109	-455	+330
BetUS	-9 +100	41.5 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-8 -110	41.5 -105	-435	+325
Caesars	-8.5 -109	41.5 -107	-420	+325
DraftKings	-8.5 -108	41.5 -110	-455	+350
Fanatics	-8 -110	41 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-8.5 +100	41.5 -102	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-9 +108	41.5 -107	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	41.5 -110	-429	+320
Pinnacle	-9 +105	42 +103	-407	+327

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -123 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Buccaneers). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Josh Hayes (CB, Buccaneers) and 2 more.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -402 here against -348 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-290
FPI	-9.5	-325
Sagarin	-7.5	-255
Massey	-6.0	-208
Market (12 books)	-9.0	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-123	-119	-0.8%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+310	+297	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-13 11:06.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -348 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Packers by 3, our data says Packers by 3

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 3TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 3.5

FPI

Packers by 2.5

Sagarin

Packers by 4.5

Massey

Packers by 2.5

Nasty Number

Packers by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

The Four

Massey

47.32.8 pts over the market

FPI

45.71.2 pts over the market

Weather

-1.066% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

45.51 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -107	44.5 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3 -102	45 -101	+148	-168

All 14 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3 -107	44.5 -110	+142	-172
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	44.5 -110	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3 -107	44.5 -110	+151	-172
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	44.5 -113	+160	-195
BetUS	+3 -105	44.5 -110	+146	-170
Bovada	+3 -110	44.5 -110	+145	-170
Caesars	+3 -103	44.5 -110	+153	-182
DraftKings	+3.5 -105	44.5 -110	+164	-198
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -108	44.5 -110	+160	-190
LowVig.ag	+3 -102	44.5 -107	+151	-172
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	44.5 -110	+151	-187
Pinnacle	+3 -102	45 -101	+148	-168

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -3.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -172 at TOM

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Jets).

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Omar Cooper Jr. (WR, Jets), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

DraftKings still has Jets +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Packers by 3. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.5	+155
FPI	+2.5	+136
Sagarin	+4.5	+169
Massey	+2.5	+135
Market (12 books)	+3.0	+148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -3.0	-113	+101	-3.4%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-172	-144	-4.2%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward New York Jets since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

No bet

market says Patriots by 5, our data says Patriots by 5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Patriots by 5.5

FPI

Patriots by 5

Sagarin

Patriots by 5.5

Massey

Patriots by 4.5

Nasty Number

Patriots by 50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Patriots by 5.5 to Patriots by 5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.41.1 pts under the market

FPI

41.3on the market

Nasty Number

40.80.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-5.5 -102	42 +102	-237	+203

All 14 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
BetMGM	-5 -110	41.5 -108	-235	+195
BetOnline.ag	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+203
BetRivers	-5.5 -112	41.5 -109	-240	+195
BetUS	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-235	+200
Bovada	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+205
Caesars	-5 -110	41.5 -113	-235	+194
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	41.5 -108	-225	+185
Fanatics	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-4.5 -120	41.5 -110	-245	+200
LowVig.ag	-5 -105	41.5 -107	-245	+203
MyBookie.ag	-5 -110	41.5 -110	-242	+192
Pinnacle	-5.5 -102	42 +102	-237	+203

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots -5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · -240 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 61°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Patriots).

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.5	-187
FPI	-5.0	-183
Sagarin	-5.5	-187
Massey	-4.5	-166
Market (12 books)	-5.0	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	40.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots -5.0	-110	+109	-4.6%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	-240	-186	-5.6%
Total	Under 41.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.3 consensus; total 41.5 here against 41.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

No bet

market says Cowboys by 4, our data says Cowboys by 4

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 4, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 4TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 4

FPI

Cowboys by 4.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 4.5

Massey

Cowboys by 2

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 40.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cowboys by 3 to Cowboys by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

Massey

53.12.6 pts over the market

FPI

50.20.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

51.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -110	50.5 -107	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5	50.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
Pinnacle	-4 -108	50 -121	-206	+178

All 14 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-4 -110	50.5 -107	-205	+165
Kalshi	-4.5	50.5 -112 51¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
BetMGM	-4 -110	50.5 -110	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	50.5 -107	-205	+177
BetRivers	-4.5 -107	51 -107	-215	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	50.5 -105	-210	+180
Bovada	-4 -110	50.5 -115	-210	+175
Caesars	-4 -111	50.5 -112	-209	+175
DraftKings	-3.5 -120	50.5 -115	-218	+180
Fanatics	-4 -110	50.5 -115	-205	+170
FanDuel	-4.5 -102	50.5 -110	-205	+172
LowVig.ag	-4 -105	50.5 -104	-205	+177
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	50.5 -110	-214	+171
Pinnacle	-4 -108	50 -121	-206	+178

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys -4.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · -205 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -107 at TOM

Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys -4.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 6 more.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-161
FPI	-4.5	-177
Sagarin	-4.5	-172
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (12 books)	-4.0	-196

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys -4.0	-110	+111	-5.1%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	-205	-164	-5.1%
Total	Over 50.5	-107	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 13, our data says 49ers by 13

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 13TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 11.5

FPI

49ers by 15.5

Sagarin

49ers by 14.5

Massey

49ers by 9.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 130 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

45.30.3 pts over the market

FPI

46.51.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

45.90.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -102	45.5 +102	-1028	+691

All 14 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13 -115	45 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -103 49¢	44.5 -116 52¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
BetMGM	-13.5 -110	44.5 -110	-900	+650
BetOnline.ag	-13 -115	45 -105	-1050	+686
BetRivers	-13.5 -112	45 -110	-1000	+600
BetUS	-13 -115	45 -105	-1050	+680
Bovada	-13 -110	45 -110	-1100	+650
Caesars	-13 -112	44.5 -115	-1000	+650
DraftKings	-13.5 -105	44.5 -115	-950	+625
Fanatics	-13.5 -105	44.5 -110	-1000	+650
FanDuel	-13.5 -105	45.5 -102	-950	+640
LowVig.ag	-13 -105	45 -102	-1050	+686
MyBookie.ag	-13.5 -110	45 -110	-1122	+658
Pinnacle	-13.5 -102	45.5 +102	-1028	+691

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -13.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -1000

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 45.0 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 1321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.5	-438
FPI	-15.5	-751
Sagarin	-14.5	-658
Massey	-9.5	-321
Market (12 books)	-13.0	-704

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	45.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -13.0	-115	-109	-1.4%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-1000	-538	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 45.0	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 6.5, our data says Chiefs by 6.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 6.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 7.5

FPI

Chiefs by 8.5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 8

Massey

Chiefs by 6.5

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.11.6 pts over the market

FPI

45.41.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6.5 -105	46.5 -105	-295	+235
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	46.5	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
Pinnacle	-6 -106	47 +103	-268	+227

All 14 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6.5 -105	46.5 -105	-295	+235
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	46.5	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
BetMGM	—	46.5 -108	-285	+230
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -105	46.5 -105	-295	+241
BetRivers	-6 -115	46.5 -109	-315	+250
BetUS	-6.5 -105	46.5 -105	-290	+240
Bovada	-6 -110	46.5 +105	-275	+225
Caesars	-6.5 -107	46.5 -107	-295	+240
DraftKings	-6 -112	46.5 -105	-285	+230
Fanatics	-6 -110	46.5 -105	-285	+230
FanDuel	-6.5 -105	46.5 -110	-295	+240
LowVig.ag	-6.5 +100	46.5 -102	-295	+241
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	46 -110	-280	+221
Pinnacle	-6 -106	47 +103	-268	+227

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -6.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -295 at TOM

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 30% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -282 here against -243 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.5	-245
FPI	-8.5	-282
Sagarin	-8.0	-263
Massey	-6.5	-217
Market (12 books)	-6.5	-282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -6.5	-105	+109	-3.4%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-295	-229	-5.1%
Total	Over 46.5	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.1 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus; moneyline -282 here against -243 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 21

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams

NFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Rams by 7, our data says Rams by 7.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 7TOM, -102

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 8.5

FPI

Rams by 5

Sagarin

Rams by 8.5

Massey

Rams by 7.5

Nasty Number

Rams by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

47.20.8 pts under the market

FPI

48.40.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.8on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -102	48 -110	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-322 75¢	+266 26¢
Pinnacle	-7.5 +110	48.5 +101	-320	+274

All 14 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -102	48 -110	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-322 75¢	+266 26¢
BetMGM	-7 -115	48 -110	-325	+270
BetOnline.ag	-7 -115	48 -110	-335	+270
BetRivers	-7 -112	48 -113	-360	+270
BetUS	-7 -115	48 -110	-335	+272
Bovada	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+270
Caesars	-7 -117	48 -113	-345	+275
DraftKings	-7 -115	48.5 -105	-355	+280
Fanatics	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+265
FanDuel	-7.5 -104	47.5 -118	-340	+275
LowVig.ag	-7 -109	48 -107	-335	+270
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	48 -110	-340	+260
Pinnacle	-7.5 +110	48.5 +101	-320	+274

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -7.0 · -102 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Rams to win · -300 at TOM

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Giants).

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants).

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 7.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-281
FPI	-5.0	-180
Sagarin	-8.5	-285
Massey	-7.5	-252
Market (12 books)	-7.0	-287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Los Angeles Rams -7.0	-102	+113	-3.6%
Moneyline	Los Angeles Rams ML	-300	-247	-3.8%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay PackersFalcons at Packers

NFL Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm

No bet

market says Packers by 6, our data says Packers by 7

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Packers →

Market

Packers by 6

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 10

FPI

Packers by 13

Sagarin

Packers by 8.5

Massey

Packers by 8

Nasty Number

Packers by 71 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

47.81.8 pts over the market

FPI

40.55.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.11.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	46.5 -116 52¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢

All 6 books

	Packers spread	Total (over)	Packers ML	Falcons ML
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	46.5 -116 52¢	-290 73¢	+229 29¢
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	45.5 -109	-305	+245
Caesars	-5.5 -120	46.5 -106	-295	+240
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	46.5 -110	-298	+240
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	45.5 -115	-275	+225
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	46 -110	-295	+220

Marked: best for the Packers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -6.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Packers to win · -295

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 62°F.

Backup QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Doubtful. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Billy Bowman Jr. (CB, Falcons), Warren Brinson (DT, Packers), Javon Hargrave (DT, Packers).

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-254
FPI	-13.0	-368
Sagarin	-8.5	-210
Massey	-8.0	-196
Market (5 books)	-6.0	-249

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Green Bay Packers -6.0	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Green Bay Packers ML	-295	-239	-4.2%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Sep 26

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State

CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm

No bet

market says Penn State by 11.5, our data says the same

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 11.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

Massey

hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

SP+ pace

38.14.4 pts under the market

Massey

41.70.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.92.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

the Under 42.5 · -110

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Massey	hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
Market (1 books)	-11.5	-369

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	39.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Total	Under 42.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sun Sep 27

11 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Panthers by 3, our data says Panthers by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →

Market

Panthers by 3

The Four

nfelo

Panthers by 1.5

FPI

Panthers by 2

Sagarin

Panthers by 1

Massey

Browns by 2.5

Nasty Number

Panthers by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5

The Four

Massey

46.26.7 pts over the market

FPI

40.10.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

43.13.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—

All 9 books

	Browns spread	Total (over)	Browns ML	Panthers ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	38.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	+3 -117	39.5 -112	+123	-150
BetUS	+3 -110	40 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -114	39.5 -109	+125	-148
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	40.5 -110	+120	-142
FanDuel	+3 -112	39.5 -105	+130	-154
LowVig.ag	+3 -110	38.5 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	39.5 -110	+120	-154

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Browns to win · +123

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $327 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+120
FPI	+2.0	+128
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (8 books)	+3.0	+134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +3.0	-110	-108	-0.6%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+123	+136	-2.6%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Bengals by 2.5, our data says Bengals by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →

Market

Bengals by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 0.5

FPI

Bengals by 1

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Steelers by 2

Nasty Number

Bengals by 20.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.52.5 pts over the market

FPI

44.51.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.50.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Steelers spread	Total (over)	Steelers ML	Bengals ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	46 -110	+114	-137
BetUS	+2.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	45.5 -115	+112	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -114	46.5 -105	+110	-130
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	46 -110	+108	-138

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +2.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +113

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

QB questionable: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Steelers) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+0.5	+103
FPI	+1.0	+113
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-2.0	-129
Market (8 books)	+2.5	+121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+113	+128	-3.0%
Total	Over 46.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →

Market

Texans by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 2

FPI

Texans by 1.5

Sagarin

Texans by 2

Massey

Texans by 1

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

51.16.4 pts over the market

FPI

43.90.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.52.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Colts spread	Total (over)	Colts ML	Texans ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	44.5 -112	+118	-143
BetUS	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -106	44.5 -110	+119	-141
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	45.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+122	-144
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	45 -110	+114	-146

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +118

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 51 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+127
FPI	+1.5	+122
Sagarin	+2.0	+125
Massey	+1.0	+113
Market (8 books)	+2.5	+127

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +2.5	-110	+107	-4.1%
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+118	+133	-2.9%
Total	Over 44.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Jaguars by 2.5, our data says Jaguars by 2.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →

Market

Jaguars by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Jaguars by 1

FPI

Jaguars by 4

Sagarin

Jaguars by 1.5

Massey

Jaguars by 2.5

Nasty Number

Jaguars by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

43.72.1 pts under the market

FPI

45.30.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.51.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-136 56¢	+105 47¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Jaguars spread	Total (over)	Jaguars ML	Patriots ML
Kalshi	—	—	-136 56¢	+105 47¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	46 -112	-132	+110
BetUS	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -109	45.5 -114	-132	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	45.5 -110	-135	+114
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	46.5 -105	-132	+112
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -105	45.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46 -110	-137	+107

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +2.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +112

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dametrious Crownover (OT, Patriots), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 4 more.

New England Patriots has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onJaguars by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-1.0	-114
FPI	-4.0	-164
Sagarin	-1.5	-122
Massey	-2.5	-142
Market (8 books)	-2.5	-121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +2.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+112	+132	-4.1%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Chiefs by 8.5, our data says Chiefs by 8.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →

Market

Chiefs by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 8.5

FPI

Chiefs by 10

Sagarin

Chiefs by 10.5

Massey

Chiefs by 4

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 8.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5

The Four

Massey

43.21.3 pts under the market

FPI

43.11.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.11.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Dolphins spread	Total (over)	Dolphins ML	Chiefs ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+8.5 -112	44.5 -109	+350	-480
BetUS	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-480
DraftKings	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+350	-455
FanDuel	+8.5 -105	44.5 -110	+430	-590
LowVig.ag	+8.5 -105	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+8.5 -110	44.5 -110	+370	-549

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -8.5 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -502

We make it 75 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -110

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ronnie Harrison Jr. (LB, Dolphins), Chop Robinson (LB, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+8.5	+297
FPI	+10.0	+354
Sagarin	+10.5	+375
Massey	+4.0	+161
Market (8 books)	+8.5	+394

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	43.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -8.5	-110	+117	-6.3%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-502	-295	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Giants by 5.5, our data says Giants by 5.5

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Giants by 5.5

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 6

FPI

Giants by 7

Sagarin

Giants by 5.5

Massey

Giants by 5.5

Nasty Number

Giants by 5.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5

The Four

Massey

45.63 pts over the market

FPI

44.41.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

452.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+208 31¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—

All 9 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Titans ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+208 31¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	42 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-6 -110	43 -108	-275	+220
BetUS	-5.5 -115	43 -110	—	—
Caesars	-5.5 -115	42.5 -110	-265	+215
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	43.5 -110	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -120	42.5 -110	-275	+225
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -110	42 -102	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	42.5 -110	-270	+202

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -5.5 · -110

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Giants to win · -270

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).

Full detail

We settle onGiants by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.0	-206
FPI	-7.0	-242
Sagarin	-5.5	-201
Massey	-5.5	-198
Market (8 books)	-5.5	-228

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants -5.5	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	-270	-199	-6.4%
Total	Over 42.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm

No bet

market says Seahawks by 2.5, our data says Seahawks by 2

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Seahawks by 2.5

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 1

FPI

Commanders by 6.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 1

Massey

Seahawks by 3

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

45.73.9 pts over the market

FPI

38.63.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.10.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Seahawks ML
Kalshi	—	—	+109 46¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -105	41.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	42 -109	+112	-136
BetUS	+2.5 -110	42 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	41.5 -114	+107	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+114	-135
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	42.5 -105	+102	-120
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +100	41.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	41.5 -110	+105	-133

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +2.5 · -110

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +109

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.0 · -110

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 39. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks ML, only $251 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Ty Okada (S, Seahawks) and 3 more.

Seattle Seahawks has had 17 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.0	+154
FPI	-6.5	-167
Sagarin	+1.0	+149
Massey	+3.0	+193
Market (8 books)	+2.5	+118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.0	42.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington Commanders +2.5	-110	+103	-3.1%
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+109	+128	-3.8%
Total	Over 42.0	-110	+102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 8.5, our data says 49ers by 9

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 8.5

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 10

FPI

49ers by 11

Sagarin

49ers by 12.5

Massey

49ers by 6.5

Nasty Number

49ers by 90.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

471.2 pts under the market

FPI

49.21 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-458 81¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Cardinals ML
Kalshi	—	—	-458 81¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-8.5 -108	47.5 -113	-500	+365
BetUS	-8.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-8.5 -110	48.5 -105	-500	+380
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	47.5 -110	-470	+360
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	48.5 -110	-550	+410
LowVig.ag	-8.5 -105	48.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	48 -110	-461	+320

Marked: best for the 49ers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -8.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -485

We make it 75 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 48.0 · -110

Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jake Tonges (TE, 49ers), Alfred Collins (DT, 49ers).

San Francisco 49ers has had 16 days off against 13, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-10.0	-336
FPI	-11.0	-384
Sagarin	-12.5	-480
Massey	-6.5	-221
Market (8 books)	-8.5	-387

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -8.5	-110	+114	-5.6%
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-485	-303	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.0	-110	+102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm

Buccaneers to win

our data says 56 in 100 · -120

A Little Nasty · Buccaneers, waitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 1.5

The Four

nfelo

Buccaneers by 53.9 pts our side

FPI

Buccaneers by 64.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 31.6 pts our side

Massey

Buccaneers by 10.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 20.6 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Buccaneers. Massey at Buccaneers by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

48.72.8 pts over the market

FPI

39.86.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.31.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	-103 49¢
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Vikings ML
Kalshi	—	—	-126 54¢	-103 49¢
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	46 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-1.5 -108	45.5 -112	-121	+100
BetUS	-1.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	-1.5 -110	45.5 -114	-120	+101
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	45.5 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -105	46.5 -110	-116	-102
LowVig.ag	-1 -105	46 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	46 -110	-126	-101

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -1.5 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · -120

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51.

Not Nasty

the Under 46.0 · -110

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers to win · -120. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

QB out: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jauan Jennings (WR, Vikings), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-139
FPI	-6.0	-151
Sagarin	-3.0	-106
Massey	-1.0	+120
Market (8 books)	-1.5	-110

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers -1.5	-110	-113	+0.8%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	-120	-127	+1.2%
Total	Under 46.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral

No bet

market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Ravens by 3

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 4

FPI

Ravens by 3

Sagarin

Ravens by 3

Massey

Ravens by 6

Nasty Number

Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5

The Four

Massey

541.6 pts over the market

FPI

51.21.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.6on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	+134 41¢	-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—

All 9 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Ravens ML
Kalshi	—	—	+134 41¢	-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -106	52 -115	—	—
BetRivers	+3 -117	52.5 -110	+130	-159
BetUS	+3 -110	53 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3 -107	52.5 -109	+132	-157
DraftKings	+3 -110	52.5 -110	+130	-155
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	52.5 -105	+148	-176
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	52 -113	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	52.5 -110	+125	-160

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ravens to win · -159

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Zay Flowers (WR, Ravens), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.0	+164
FPI	+3.0	+143
Sagarin	+3.0	+146
Massey	+6.0	+215
Market (8 books)	+3.0	+144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Baltimore Ravens -3.0	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Baltimore Ravens ML	-159	-147	-1.9%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints

NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says Saints by 3, our data says Saints by 3

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 3

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4.5

Sagarin

Saints by 4

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

41.83 pts under the market

FPI

40.94 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.33.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Raiders ML
Kalshi	—	—	-175 62¢	+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -120	44.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3 -108	45.5 -108	-162	+133
BetUS	-3 -115	44.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-3 -114	44.5 -118	-164	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	45.5 -110	-162	+136
FanDuel	-3 -115	44.5 -115	-174	+146
LowVig.ag	-3 -116	44.5 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	45 -110	-172	+134

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -163

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 45.0 · -110

Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 3 more.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-139
FPI	-4.5	-171
Sagarin	-4.0	-159
Massey	-3.0	-148
Market (8 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	41.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3.0	-110	+100	-2.4%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-163	-146	-2.7%
Total	Under 45.0	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The Receipts11 bets · 6-5 · +1.5u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-1+0.78 units · +26% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+1.5 ptsbeat the close on 3 of 4 posted picks

Open3calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games

Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game

Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty13-1252%-0.13 units25 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

1-0 · +0.95 units

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick	2-1	66.7%	+0.8 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	0-1	0.0%	-1.0 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	13-12	52.0%	-0.1 u
Not Nasty	85 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-19 13:02.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 95 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
FPI	9.88	57
The market	11.00	95
SP+	11.03	57
Sagarin	13.63	85
Massey	18.57	13

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	1.50	0.05	57
Massey	1.00	0.00	2.81	13
SP+	1.00	0.50	0.07	57
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.44	85

The line archive, 95 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 45 times, against it 36, and sat still 14. Our side taken at the open finished 0.45 points better than the close on average over 90 games. The close misses the final by 10.84, the open by 11.06, our raw ratings number by 14.26, Pinnacle's close by 10.79. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.81, MyBookie.ag 10.30, Pinnacle 10.79.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 17 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.13	17
nfelo	11.26	17
Sagarin	11.73	17

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	1.50	0.02	2
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.04	1
Sagarin	1.00	0.50	0.09	17
nfelo	1.00	1.50	0.09	17

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 39 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 7 times, against it 8, average -0.04 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 4.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-14). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	1	18.75	19.06	0-0
ratings 15%	1	18.90	19.06	0-0
ratings 45%	1	18.59	19.06	0-0
Sagarin half a vote	1	18.69	19.06	0-0
Sagarin no vote	1	18.69	19.06	0-0
FPI a vote and a half	1	18.69	19.06	0-0
Massey a vote and a half	1	18.80	19.06	0-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.32Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 57%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 39 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 7 of 39 moved our way, average -0.0 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 4. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Wyoming at Central Michigan	Under	40	40	+0.0	same side
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons	Over	44.5	44.5	+0.0	same side
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston Texans	Over	46.5	46.5	+0.0	same side
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Cleveland +9	9	9	+0.0	flipped
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets	New York +3.5	3.5	3.5	+0.0	same side
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers	Las Vegas +7	7	7	+0.0	flipped
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears	Minnesota +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	same side
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens	New Orleans +9	9	9	+0.0	same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans	Tennessee +7	7	7	+0.0	same side
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	Over	41	41	+0.0	flipped
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys	Over	50.5	50.5	+0.0	same side
New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams	New York +7	7	7	+0.0	same side

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 58 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 10.7 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	19	9.9	9-8 (53%)	6-5 (55%)
Massey	24	9.9	5-5 (50%)	2-3 (40%)
The blend	24	10.1	7-9 (44%)	5-4 (56%)

NFL, 7 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 6.3 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	3	6.1	3-0 (100%)	—
FPI	1	18.6	—	—
The blend	3	6.7	2-0 (100%)	—

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

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He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

55 priced · 2 Nasty Picks · 8 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 18 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 24 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 68 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 5 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.

Since 3:23pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 1.8Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titanstoward Philadelphia Eagleswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.88Points off per game at that weight

10.88The market on its own

124Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
FPI	70	10.04
The market	124	10.88
SP+	68	10.90
Sagarin	114	12.95
Massey	25	14.93

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	55-62	47%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 790806 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.25 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	83	1.94
LowVig.ag	202	1.44
BetOnline.ag	208	1.44
DraftKings	234	1.35
FanDuel	258	1.28
BetRivers	242	1.23
BetMGM	196	1.23
Caesars	184	1.22
Bovada	199	1.16
BetUS	153	1.15
MyBookie.ag	157	1.10
Pinnacle	198	1.10
Fanatics	179	1.09
TOM	191	1.08

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated yesterday
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
nfelo updated 3 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Sep 19

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.