Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Buffalo at Florida InternationalBuffalo +10-110+3.7%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 8:02am at +10 -105. Now Buffalo +10 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+10.5 open Sunnow +10Nasty Number +8.5Jacksonville State at OhioOhio PK-115 at TOM+3.1%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Changed since the call Called Sat 3:10pm at PK -115. Now Ohio PK -115. LowVig.ag is still on PK. Pinnacle has -2.5.shrinking, 2.5 pts-2.5 open Sunnow PKNasty Number -0.5Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Middle Tennessee at MarshallMiddle Tennessee +13-110 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 · 1 point awayJets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: San Diego State at UCLA, Under 54.5. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come up 2.9 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
San Diego State at UCLAMoved our way · 2.9 ptsUnder 54.5should be 53.6 · getting 0.9 ptsSat 6:15pm Buck's case ›South Alabama at TulaneMoved our way · 2.9 ptsOver 48should be 49 · getting 1 ptSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Arkansas at UtahMoved our way · 1 ptOver 55.5should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 ptsSat 9:15pm Buck's case ›Packers at VikingsUnder 46should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 ptsSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›Bears at PanthersUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
Buck's Take
2 Nasty Picks on the counter Saturday. Read the receipt before you bet it.
Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13. Every system has Marshall by 6.5; the market has Marshall by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Arkansas at Utah Over 55.5 the strongest at 4.2% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Arkansas at Utah, Over 55.5, down 1 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Don't tell anyone I said so.
Buck
Today
40 gamesBest: Buffalo +10.0, NastiestBuffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida InternationalCFB 5:00pmBuffalo +10should be Buffalo +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -110 at TOMNastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Buffalo +10.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says Florida International by 10, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 8.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buffalo is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 48 -107 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 47.5 | -381 78¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -108 | 48 +101 | -399 | +321 |
All 14 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 48 -107 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 47.5 | -381 78¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 47.5 -108 | -400 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 48 -107 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -10 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -400 | +305 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 47.5 -105 | -410 | +320 |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -106 | 47.5 -108 | -450 | +340 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 48 -105 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -420 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -108 | 48 +101 | -399 | +321 |
Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 49% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers -10.5, only $6 available; Over 47.5, only $480 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -103 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -208 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +310 | +247 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -113 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at OhioCFB 5:00pmOhio PKshould be Ohio -0.5 · getting 0.5 pts · -115 at TOM · was -2.5Nasty PickDon't addBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Ohio PK at -115 at TOM. TOM is 2.5 points off Pinnacle. The sharp books have moved and this number hasn't. Numbers this far off the pack have lost to the pack about 55% of the time over four seasons. No opinion about the game needed.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.1 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -115 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 +102 | 50 -106 | -117 | +104 |
All 13 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -115 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 50.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -115 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 50.5 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -112 | 50.5 -106 | -124 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 50.5 -108 | -128 | +106 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -111 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 50 -110 | -124 | +102 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 +102 | 50 -106 | -117 | +104 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 76°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread PK here against -2.0 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Ohio PK while Pinnacle is at Ohio by 2.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +216 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -127 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +111 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | -111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats PK | -115 | -103 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -120 | -103 | -3.9% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread PK here against -2.0 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at MarshallCFB 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +13should be Middle Tennessee +11 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +14.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 56 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -111 | 56 -105 | -577 | +438 |
All 14 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 56 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +426 18¢ |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 56 -110 | -500 | +383 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -625 | +425 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -13 -105 | 56 +100 | -600 | +425 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -560 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -530 | +390 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 56 -108 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -561 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -111 | 56 -105 | -577 | +438 |
Marked: best for Middle Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -252 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -154 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -361 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -132 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +370 | +332 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 20:28; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLACFB 6:15pmUnder 54.5should be 53.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 55A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 2.9 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 54.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San Diego State too: market says UCLA by 13, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 11.5, but at -107 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -510 | +360 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -106 | 54 -108 | -538 | +413 |
All 13 books
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -510 | +360 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -510 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -115 | 54.5 -112 | -715 | +440 |
| BetUS | -13 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -510 | +395 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -575 | +400 |
| Caesars | -13 -112 | 54.5 -109 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -112 | 54.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -630 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -109 | 54.5 -108 | -510 | +390 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -575 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -106 | 54 -108 | -538 | +413 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 1.7 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
DraftKings still has UCLA -12.5 while Pinnacle is at UCLA by 13.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -244 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -190 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -616 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -488 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +13.0 | -107 | -114 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +360 | +341 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-09 01:03; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at TulaneCFB 6:00pmOver 48should be 49 · getting 1 pt · was 49.5A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.9 ptsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulane by 9, the Nasty Number says Tulane by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -113 | 48 -107 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +103 | 48.5 +101 | -372 | +303 |
All 14 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -113 | 48 -107 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -340 76¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -113 | 48 -107 | -360 | +289 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -385 | +280 |
| BetUS | -9 -110 | 48 -105 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -10 -105 | 48 -106 | -380 | +290 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -108 | 48.5 -104 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -109 | 48 -105 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +103 | 48.5 +101 | -372 | +303 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.0 | -193 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -342 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -311 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +9.0 | -107 | -112 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +270 | +258 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -107 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB 9:15pmOver 55.5should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 pts · was 55A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arkansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12 -114 | 55.5 -109 | -501 | +389 |
All 13 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| BetMGM | -13 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -475 | +375 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +364 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -590 | +400 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +370 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -117 | 55.5 -112 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +385 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12 -114 | 55.5 -109 | -501 | +389 |
Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward Arkansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -368 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -136 |
| Market (11 books) | -11.5 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 62.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +11.5 | -103 | -106 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +340 | +339 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia TechCFB 6:00pmOver 55.5should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 13 to Tennessee by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -490 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -109 | 56 -103 | +385 | -494 |
All 14 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -490 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -458 81¢ |
| BetMGM | +12 -108 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +377 | -490 |
| BetRivers | +12 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +382 | -490 |
| Bovada | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +370 | -510 |
| Caesars | +12.5 -113 | 55.5 -113 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | +370 | -485 |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -104 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +12 -110 | 55.5 -108 | +377 | -490 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -109 | 56 -103 | +385 | -494 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 22% chance of rain.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.0 | +608 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +244 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +376 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 | -112 | -109 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +360 | +349 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida AtlanticCFB 6:30pmOver 59.5should be 60.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 58.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4, the Nasty Number says Navy by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 59.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +161 | -184 |
All 13 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 59.5 -107 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 59.5 -107 | +165 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 58.5 -114 | +150 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Caesars | +4 -112 | 59.5 -110 | +165 | -197 |
| DraftKings | +4 -108 | 59.5 -110 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -106 | 59.5 -105 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +163 | -202 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +161 | -184 |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 38% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.5 | +451 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +396 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +174 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -115 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 64.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -4.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -190 | -170 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -107 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise StateCFB 5:00pmMemphis +8.5should be Memphis +8 · getting 0.5 pts · was +9Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -105 | 55.5 +101 | -343 | +282 |
All 13 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -9 -112 | 55.5 -102 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -330 | +267 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 55.5 -109 | -360 | +270 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -330 | +270 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -113 | 55.5 -106 | -360 | +280 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -118 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 55.5 -106 | -335 | +265 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -330 | +267 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 55 -110 | -350 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -105 | 55.5 +101 | -343 | +282 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis +8.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.
TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -176 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -234 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -275 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -316 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +255 | +234 | +1.8% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at IowaCFB 6:30pmIowa -14should be Iowa -14.5 · getting 0.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa by 14, the Nasty Number says Iowa by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.2 points since it opened, from 41.3 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -113 | 42.5 -108 | -615 | +461 |
All 13 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -600 | +430 |
| BetMGM | -14 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -600 | +446 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -112 | 42 -110 | -715 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 42.5 -113 | -675 | +475 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 42.5 -108 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -102 | 42.5 -112 | -650 | +460 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 42.5 -114 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -113 | 42.5 -108 | -615 | +461 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
TOM: moneyline -574 here against -483 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -700 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -728 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -600 | -493 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: moneyline -574 here against -483 consensus.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at PittsburghCFB 3:45pmNo betmarket says Pittsburgh by 7, our data says Pittsburgh by 7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 7, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -115 | 55 -111 | -282 | +238 |
All 11 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -117 | 55.5 -110 | -270 | +222 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 56 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -298 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -315 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 55.5 -108 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -111 | 56.5 -111 | -286 | +215 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -115 | 55 -111 | -282 | +238 |
Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 34% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -261 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (9 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -7.0 | -117 | +110 | -6.2% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -270 | -213 | -4.9% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at FloridaCFB 4:30pmNo betmarket says Florida by 51, our data says Florida by 49.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 51.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -51 -110 | 66 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 66.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -51.5 -114 | 66.5 -116 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -51 -110 | 66 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 66.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -51 -110 | 66.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -51 -110 | 66 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51 -110 | 66.5 -107 | — | — |
| Bovada | -51.5 -115 | 67 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -51.5 -110 | 66.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -50.5 -112 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -50.5 -110 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -50.5 -115 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -51 -110 | 66 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -51.5 -114 | 66.5 -116 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -50.5, now -51.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Florida).
TOM: spread -51.0 here against -51.2 consensus.
TOM: total 66.0 here against 66.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Campbell | |
| Sagarin | -45.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Campbell and Florida on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -51.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Campbell Fighting Camels +51.0 | -110 | -184 | +12.5% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Florida Gators since 09-10 14:33.
TOM: spread -51.0 here against -51.2 consensus; total 66.0 here against 66.5 consensus.
The line is -51.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red WolvesWest Georgia at Arkansas StateCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Arkansas State by 32.5, our data says Arkansas State by 27Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arkansas State by 32.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | West Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -115 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31.5 -108 | 56.5 -104 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | West Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -115 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -32 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -32.5 -115 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -31.5 -114 | 57 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -31.5 -112 | 56.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -31.5 -112 | 56.5 -108 | — | +3000 |
| Fanatics | -32 -110 | 56 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -31.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -32.5 -115 | 56 -105 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31.5 -108 | 56.5 -104 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Arkansas State).
The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.6 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| FPI | doesn't rate West Georgia | |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -498 |
| Massey | rates West Georgia and Arkansas State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -32.5 | -3222 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Georgia Wolves +32.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | West Georgia Wolves ML | +3000 | +2937 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-10 10:21.
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.6 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at NebraskaCFB 6:00pmUnder 50should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 52Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 31.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Nebraska by 28.5 to Nebraska by 31.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.9 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.9 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31.5 -107 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 +105 47¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -112 | 50 -104 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31.5 -107 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 +105 47¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | — | +2800 |
| BetOnline.ag | -31.5 -107 | 50 -105 | — | +1787 |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -31 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -30 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Caesars | -30.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -115 | 49.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -31 -106 | 50 -103 | — | +1787 |
| MyBookie.ag | -30.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| Pinnacle | -30.5 -112 | 50 -104 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -29.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Nebraska).
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -27.0 | -2949 |
| FPI | -28.5 | -3564 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -151 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.5 | -2069 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +31.5 | -113 | +140 | -11.3% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +1888 | +5013 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -115 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-08 21:00; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.6 consensus.
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at CincinnatiCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Cincinnati by 35.5, our data says Cincinnati by 32.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cincinnati by 36.5 to Cincinnati by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -36 -108 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -112 | 61 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -35.5 -112 | 61.5 -105 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -110 | 61.5 -106 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -35.5 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -36.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F, 33% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Carolina | |
| Sagarin | -26.0 | -2565 |
| Massey | rates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -35.5 | -3170 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Carolina Catamounts +35.5 | -105 | +117 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Carolina Catamounts ML | +3604 | +7497 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus; total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado StateCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Southern Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 57 -113 | -1474 | +739 |
All 12 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Southern Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -113 | 56.5 -112 | — | +1000 |
| Bovada | -20.5 -110 | 57 -115 | -1500 | +775 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -107 | 57.5 -113 | -1450 | +750 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -102 | 57.5 -105 | -1350 | +800 |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -1205 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -107 | 57 -113 | -1474 | +739 |
Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern Utah | |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -258 |
| Massey | rates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -20.5 | -818 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Southern Utah Thunderbirds ML | +800 | +793 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw StateCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Kennesaw State by 8.5, our data says Kennesaw State by 8.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Kennesaw State by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5.2 points since it opened, from 50.2 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 55 -117 | -332 | +275 |
All 13 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -118 | 55.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | -315 | +256 |
| BetRivers | -8 -113 | 54.5 -115 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -315 | +258 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -106 | 55.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 55.5 -106 | -310 | +245 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -101 | 55.5 -110 | -315 | +256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -9 +100 | 55 -117 | -332 | +275 |
Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia State).
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -738 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -274 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls -8.5 | -105 | +112 | -4.1% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | -315 | -252 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -112 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-07 16:45; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern IllinoisCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Illinois State by 2.5, our data says Illinois State by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Illinois State by 5.5 to Illinois State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Illinois State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +110 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -101 | 48 -108 | +118 | -141 |
All 12 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Illinois State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +110 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +3 -115 | 48.5 -102 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +3 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +120 | -148 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 48 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -104 | 47.5 -120 | +123 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 47.5 -115 | +124 | -148 |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -130 | 47.5 -115 | +122 | -146 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -105 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | — | +119 | -152 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -101 | 48 -108 | +118 | -141 |
Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Illinois State | |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +155 |
| Massey | rates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois State Redbirds -2.5 | -115 | -114 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Illinois State Redbirds ML | -140 | -137 | -0.5% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.0 consensus; moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri StateCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Missouri State by 16.5, our data says Missouri State by 15Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Missouri State by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri State by 15. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 | -850 | +550 |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -117 | 52.5 -111 | -899 | +533 |
All 11 books
| Missouri State spread | Total (over) | Missouri State ML | Lindenwood ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -16.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 | -850 | +550 |
| BetMGM | -16.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -800 | +625 |
| BetOnline.ag | -16.5 -105 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -16 -114 | 53.5 -112 | -1250 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| Caesars | -16.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -950 | +550 |
| DraftKings | -16.5 -112 | 52.5 -115 | -850 | +575 |
| Fanatics | -16.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -850 | +575 |
| FanDuel | -16.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1000 | +640 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -901 | +520 |
| Pinnacle | -16.5 -117 | 52.5 -111 | -899 | +533 |
Marked: best for the Missouri State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -16.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -813 here against -591 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Lindenwood | |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -320 |
| Massey | rates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -16.5 | -813 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Lindenwood Lions +16.5 | -115 | +100 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Lindenwood Lions ML | +550 | +520 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus; moneyline -813 here against -591 consensus.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam HoustonCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says Tulsa by 12.5, our data says Tulsa by 12Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.6 points since it opened, from 52.1 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12 -103 | 51.5 -116 | +397 | -512 |
All 14 books
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +370 | -500 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +426 18¢ | -490 82¢ |
| BetMGM | +12.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +380 | -500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +383 | -500 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -108 | 51 -114 | +350 | -480 |
| BetUS | +12.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +390 | -500 |
| Bovada | +12.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +375 | -525 |
| Caesars | +12.5 -110 | 51.5 -114 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -112 | 51.5 -118 | +380 | -500 |
| Fanatics | +12.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +390 | -525 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +365 | -490 |
| LowVig.ag | +12.5 -106 | 51.5 -108 | +383 | -500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +12.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +12 -103 | 51.5 -116 | +397 | -512 |
Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +12.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.0 | +691 |
| FPI | +11.0 | +331 |
| Sagarin | +11.5 | +358 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +387 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +12.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +370 | +379 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-07 16:27.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +12.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South CarolinaCFB 6:00pmNo betmarket says South Carolina by 44, our data says South Carolina by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 44.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -102 | 57 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 +100 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -44.5 -107 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -43.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -102 | 57 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 47% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -43.0, now -44.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward South Carolina).
TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Towson | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Towson | |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Towson and South Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Towson Tigers +44.0 | -110 | -170 | +10.6% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.3 consensus.
The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at WisconsinCFB 6:15pmNo betmarket says Wisconsin by 42.5, our data says Wisconsin by 43.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 42.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Wisconsin by 41.5 to Wisconsin by 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42.5 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -43 -105 | 52 -109 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Western Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -42.5 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -42.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42.5 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42.5 -112 | 52 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -43 -105 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -42.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42.5 -105 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -42.5 -102 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42.5 -110 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -43 -105 | 52 -109 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -38.0, now -43.0 (the market moved 4.9 toward Wisconsin).
TOM: spread -42.5 here against -42.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Western Illinois | |
| Sagarin | -47.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wisconsin Badgers -42.5 | -110 | +147 | -11.9% |
Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-10 10:21; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM: spread -42.5 here against -42.8 consensus.
The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB 6:30pmUnder 55.5should be 54.7 · getting 0.8 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 +102 | 55 -109 | -1319 | +834 |
All 14 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| BetMGM | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -125 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -1350 | +817 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -112 | 55 -112 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetUS | -19.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -114 | 54.5 -118 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -1200 | +750 |
| Fanatics | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -19.5 -111 | 55.5 -103 | -1350 | +817 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20 -110 | 55 -110 | -1442 | +752 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 +102 | 55 -109 | -1319 | +834 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 40% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia Southern).
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -20.1 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -430 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -652 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (12 books) | -19.5 | -856 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +19.5 | -105 | +110 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +817 | +800 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-07 14:15; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -20.1 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.0 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal CarolinaCFB 6:30pmNo betmarket says Coastal Carolina by 36, our data says Coastal Carolina by 29Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 36.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Coastal Carolina by 35 to Coastal Carolina by 36. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -106 | 53.5 -119 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -36 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -36 -110 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -36 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 -106 | 53.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -36 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -106 | 53.5 -119 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Coastal Carolina).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.9 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Fordham | |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -928 |
| Massey | rates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -36.0 | -3829 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fordham Rams +36.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Fordham Rams ML | +4086 | +4140 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-10 18:23.
TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.9 consensus; total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSUCFB 6:30pmUnder 55should be 53.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 35.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -103 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
All 14 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35 -110 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -35.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -35 -110 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -35.5 -109 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -35 -110 | 55 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -35 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -35 -110 | 55.5 -107 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -118 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -35 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -35.5 +100 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -35 -106 | 55 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -34.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -35 -103 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -32.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward LSU).
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -29.5 | -4206 |
| FPI | -32.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -34.0 | — |
| Massey | -3.5 | -148 |
| Market (12 books) | -35.0 | -3977 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0 | -110 | +140 | -10.8% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4086 | +8973 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 16:49.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at TexasCFB 6:30pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -117 | 51 -110 | -129 | +109 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 50.5 -112 | -122 | +108 |
All 13 books
| Texas spread | Total (over) | Texas ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -117 | 51 -110 | -129 | +109 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -117 | 51 -110 | -129 | +109 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -114 | 50.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 51 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -127 | +108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 49.5 -118 | -120 | +102 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -110 | 51 -108 | -129 | +109 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -128 | +105 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -109 | 50.5 -112 | -122 | +108 |
Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +129 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -130 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +109 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -120 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 | -103 | +104 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +109 | +114 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon StateCFB 6:30pmUnder 52should be 51.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 53.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 26.5 to Texas Tech by 26. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +26 -114 | 52.5 -105 | +1418 | -2779 |
All 13 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +26 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +25.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +1550 | -3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +26 -110 | 52 -110 | +1256 | -3000 |
| BetRivers | +26 -109 | 52.5 -113 | +1700 | — |
| BetUS | +25.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +1300 | -3000 |
| Bovada | +25 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +1100 | — |
| Caesars | +25.5 -108 | 52.5 -107 | +1500 | — |
| DraftKings | +25.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +1500 | — |
| Fanatics | +25.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +1400 | -2800 |
| FanDuel | +26.5 -120 | 52.5 -105 | +1600 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +26 -106 | 52 -108 | +1256 | -3000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +25.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +1075 | -3030 |
| Pinnacle | +26 -114 | 52.5 -105 | +1418 | -2779 |
Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F, 38% chance of rain.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.5 | +1701 |
| FPI | +23.5 | +1669 |
| Sagarin | +27.5 | +3118 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -109 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.0 | +1444 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.0 | -110 | +137 | -10.2% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1409 | +2206 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
The line is +26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB 6:45pmUnder 56should be 53.2 · getting 2.8 pts · was 57Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -33 -104 | 56.5 -111 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -33 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -33 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -33.5 -110 | 57 -113 | — | — |
| BetUS | -33.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33 -105 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -32.5 -113 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| Fanatics | -32.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -106 | 56 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -33 -110 | 56 -110 | — | +1606 |
| Pinnacle | -33 -104 | 56.5 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -609 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -33.0 | -2576 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +3000 | +4081 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -105 | -133 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole MissCFB 6:45pmNo betmarket says Ole Miss by 45, our data says Ole Miss by 43Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 45.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 47.5 to Ole Miss by 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45 -112 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -110 | 59.5 -107 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -45 -112 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -45.5 -108 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -45 -112 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -45.5 -109 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -45 -110 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -45.5 -104 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -45.5 -105 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -45.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -110 | 59.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -47.5, now -45.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Charlotte).
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -41.5 | — |
| FPI | -35.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -49.0 | — |
| Massey | -5.5 | -175 |
| Market (10 books) | -45.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 60.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +45.0 | -108 | -195 | +14.1% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-10 15:19; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.5 consensus.
The line is -45.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at BaylorCFB 7:00pmNo betmarket says Baylor by 37, our data says Baylor by 36Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 37.5 to Baylor by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -114 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -37.5 -108 | 55.5 -112 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37 -105 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Across the books: opened -38.0, now -37.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Prairie View A&M).
TOM: spread -37.0 here against -37.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Prairie View A&M | |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -37.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Prairie View A&M Panthers +37.0 | -115 | +151 | -13.6% |
| Moneyline | Prairie View A&M Panthers ML | +7079 | — | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Prairie View A&M Panthers since 09-08 16:04.
TOM: spread -37.0 here against -37.4 consensus.
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB 8:00pmNo betmarket says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 22Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTEP by 25.5 to UTEP by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -116 | 53 -114 | — | +1272 |
All 12 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetMGM | -27 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -3000 | +1750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -113 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | +1200 |
| Caesars | -27 -112 | 53.5 -106 | — | +1400 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -116 | 53 -114 | — | +1272 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 90°F.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -480 |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -1445 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +27.0 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +1594 | +1324 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB 9:00pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 2, our data says North Dakota State by 1.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 48 -105 | +108 | -128 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -111 | +106 | -120 |
All 13 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 48 -105 | +108 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +108 | -128 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +102 | -127 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +106 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 47.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 47.5 -108 | +108 | -128 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +103 | -125 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -111 | +106 | -120 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
DraftKings still has North Dakota State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at North Dakota State by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -108 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +150 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.0 | +113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +2.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | +108 | +119 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 20:14.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB 9:30pmOver 44.5should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 45.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +103 | 44.5 -107 | -979 | +666 |
All 13 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -1000 | +675 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -18 -109 | 44.5 -108 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -1200 | +675 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -900 | +600 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | -1050 | +660 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -106 | 44.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1205 | +690 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 +103 | 44.5 -107 | -979 | +666 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.
TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -457 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -451 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.5 | -702 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +17.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +682 | +626 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB 9:30pmNo betmarket says Montana State by 4.5, our data says Montana State by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Montana State by 3.5 to Montana State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Montana State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -106 | 51.5 -109 | +158 | -193 |
All 12 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Montana State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +4 -108 | 51.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -113 | 51 -109 | +160 | -200 |
| Bovada | +4 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4 -107 | 51.5 -111 | +155 | -193 |
| DraftKings | +4 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 52 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 51.5 -112 | +158 | -192 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -208 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -106 | 51.5 -109 | +158 | -193 |
Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus.
Fanatics still has Nevada +5.0 while Pinnacle is at Montana State by 4.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +233 |
| Massey | rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | +4.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana State Bobcats -4.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Montana State Bobcats ML | -190 | -180 | -1.3% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB 10:00pmOver 59should be 59.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 60Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 31. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 +101 48¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -106 | 59 -107 | — | — |
All 14 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 +101 48¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -31.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | +3000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -31 -105 | 59 -105 | — | +1787 |
| BetRivers | -31 -117 | 59 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -31 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | +1600 |
| Caesars | -31 -109 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -118 | 58.5 -118 | — | +2000 |
| Fanatics | -31 -110 | 59 -110 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -115 | 58.5 -106 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -31 -101 | 59.5 -103 | — | +1787 |
| MyBookie.ag | -31 -110 | 59 -110 | — | +1559 |
| Pinnacle | -31 -106 | 59 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 59.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2334 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2649 |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4325 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.0 | -2112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -115 | +138 | -11.4% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2000 | +4348 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'iCFB 11:00pmNo betmarket says Hawai'i by 7, our data says Hawai'i by 7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 7, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +102 | 50 -112 | -314 | +261 |
All 12 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7 -120 | 50.5 -108 | -300 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 49.5 -114 | -295 | +220 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -109 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 49.5 -115 | -295 | +235 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -114 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -319 | +246 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +102 | 50 -112 | -314 | +261 |
Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -302 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -237 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -310 | -217 | -7.2% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus; moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western MichiganCFB 5:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -114 | 54.5 -111 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetMGM | -29.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -29.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | +1500 |
| Bovada | -28.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -29.5 -109 | 54.5 -108 | — | +1300 |
| DraftKings | -29.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -29.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | +2400 |
| LowVig.ag | -29 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -114 | 54.5 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -29.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Western Michigan).
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Monmouth | |
| Massey | rates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -29.0 | -1862 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Western Michigan Broncos since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.4 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at HoustonCFB 6:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -52 -110 | 61.5 -118 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -52 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -52 -105 | 61.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -52 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -51.5 -113 | 61.5 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -52 -110 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -53 -110 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -51.5 -118 | 61.5 -118 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -52 -105 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -51.5 -110 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -52 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -52 -110 | 61.5 -118 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -51.0, now -52.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Houston).
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Southern | |
| Massey | rates Southern and Houston on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -52.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Houston Cougars since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCUCFB 7:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Grambling ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -114 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
All 11 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | Grambling ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -44 -108 | 55.5 -102 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -115 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -44 -113 | 55.5 -120 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -44.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -44.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44 -115 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -114 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward TCU).
TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Grambling | |
| Massey | rates Grambling and TCU on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José StateCFB 8:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Cal Poly ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -115 | 58 -111 | -1658 | +796 |
All 12 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Cal Poly ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -21.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -1600 | +1050 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -21.5 -113 | 58 -108 | — | +1400 |
| Bovada | -21 -115 | 58 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Caesars | -21.5 -107 | 58.5 -109 | -1700 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -105 | 58.5 -108 | -1800 | +1000 |
| Fanatics | -21.5 -105 | 58 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -114 | 58.5 -105 | -2800 | +1160 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -21.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -115 | 58 -111 | -1658 | +796 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward San José State). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Massey | rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -21.5 | -930 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-08 18:47; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Tomorrow
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetUS | PK -120 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 39 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 38.5 -112 | -120 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 39 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -112 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -123 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -146 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans PK | -116 | -112 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -119 | -112 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmUnder 46should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -115 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -115 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -123 | 46 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 46 -112 | -127 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -113 | 46.5 -107 | -129 | +109 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -105 | 46.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -126 | +108 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -119 | 46 -113 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -127 | +104 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +112 | +109 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | +105 | +103 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -105 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -102 | 47 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +149 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 47.5 -107 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3 -105 | 47.5 -102 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -107 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +141 | -174 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +125 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -123 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +140 | +140 | +0.0% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -105 | -105 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmOver 41should be 41.6 · getting 0.6 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Steelers by 6, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Steelers by 3 to Steelers by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 +101 48¢ | 40.5 | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -112 | 41 -108 | -290 | +244 |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 +101 48¢ | 40.5 | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -115 | 41 -110 | -270 | +222 |
| BetRivers | -6 -113 | 41 -109 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -6 -108 | 41 -113 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -270 | +220 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -118 | 40.5 -118 | -290 | +235 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -110 | 41 -107 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -275 | +218 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -112 | 41 -108 | -290 | +244 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Steelers).
Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -184 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -164 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -6.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -280 | -217 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmOver 44.5should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 +100 | 45 -101 | +106 | -119 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -113 | 44.5 -112 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +103 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -104 | -112 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 44.5 -107 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -101 | -121 |
| Pinnacle | +1 +100 | 45 -101 | +106 | -119 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | +100 | +101 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +105 | +107 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 50should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 49.5 -118 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -108 | 50 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -110 | 49.5 -113 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 49.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -340 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 50 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -251 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -107 | +115 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -310 | -243 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmUnder 47should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -102 | 47 -111 | -480 | +376 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +393 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 47 -113 | -480 | +350 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 47 -115 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -102 | -500 | +380 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 47 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -490 | +380 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 47 -113 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -505 | +356 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -102 | 47 -111 | -480 | +376 |
Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -307 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -366 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | -515 | -331 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 17:00.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
All 14 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 48 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 48 -108 | +143 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -102 | 47.5 -117 | +147 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -114 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +100 | 48 -102 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | -105 | -105 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +135 | +140 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 50 -111 | -200 | +174 |
All 14 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -4 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 50 -115 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 50.5 -109 | -205 | +171 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 50.5 -112 | -210 | +176 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -102 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +168 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 50 -111 | -200 | +174 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $126 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -171 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -158 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | -115 | +111 | -6.1% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -205 | -155 | -6.4% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +100 | 40.5 -102 | -403 | +325 |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 40.5 -106 | -420 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -104 | 39.5 -127 | -420 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 40.5 -102 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +101 | 40 -109 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +100 | 40.5 -102 | -403 | +325 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -311 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -288 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.5 | -116 | -113 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +320 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
All 14 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 40.5 -108 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 40.5 -107 | -159 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 40.5 -106 | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -164 | +138 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 40.5 -107 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 40 -110 | -171 | +139 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -179 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 | -113 | -101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -165 | -148 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 44.5 -101 | -240 | +205 |
All 14 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -250 | +205 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 44 -113 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -110 | 44 -107 | -247 | +205 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -250 | +198 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 44.5 -101 | -240 | +205 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Laremy Tunsil (OT, Commanders) and 6 more.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -236 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 | -115 | +107 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -247 | -189 | -5.8% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL tomorrow 7:20pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -116 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +139 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -118 | 48 -108 | +132 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 48 -108 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -111 | 48 -110 | +134 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 48.5 -105 | +134 | -158 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 48 -105 | +139 | -159 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -120 | 48 -110 | +135 | -167 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -116 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.0 | -113 | -107 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +134 | +137 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pmUnder 43.5should be 42.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +101 | -137 | +122 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -134 | +114 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -143 | +117 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +101 | -137 | +122 |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 4 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -147 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | -116 | -111 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -140 | -137 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 17
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 51.5 -115 | -170 | +144 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 51.5 -102 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 38% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -3.5, only $0 available; Over 51.5, only $200 available; Under 51.5, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -141 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -3.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -172 | -147 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Sep 18
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Miami by 22.5, our data says Miami by 15.5Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami by 19.5 to Miami by 22.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1684 94¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -113 |
| Market (1 books) | +22.5 | +1042 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons +22.5 | -110 | -166 | +10.0% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | +1000 | +564 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 2.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Sep 19
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at IndianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmUnder 59.5should be 58.5 · getting 1 ptWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $169 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -39.5 | — |
| FPI | -38.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -44.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.5 | -163 |
| Market (1 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5 | -110 | -187 | +12.7% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole MissCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 58.5should be 57.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +231 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +197 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -106 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -130 |
| Market (1 books) | +2.5 | +123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LSU Tigers -2.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | LSU Tigers ML | -139 | -132 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sun Sep 20
10 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -103 49¢ |
All 6 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -103 49¢ |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -124 | +102 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | -108 | -108 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -122 | -104 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | -120 |
| FPI | +1.0 | -120 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -128 |
| Massey | +0.5 | -129 |
| Market (5 books) | -1.5 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +1.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +102 | +112 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 46.5should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -381 78¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -381 78¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -355 | +280 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -104 | 46.5 -118 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -323 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -319 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (8 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | -110 | +114 | -5.7% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -400 | -270 | -7.0% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 45.5should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -165 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -104 | 45.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -170 | +142 |
| FanDuel | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -154 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +110 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -168 | +131 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -155 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -154 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -165 | -144 | -3.2% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 46 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -113 | -139 | +119 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -136 | +116 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +108 | 45.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -146 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -126 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (8 books) | -2.5 | -128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | +117 | +138 | -4.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -290 73¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -118 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -290 73¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -118 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 40.5 -124 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 40.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -319 | +236 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $194 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.0 | -265 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -251 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (8 books) | -6.5 | -256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -295 | -228 | -5.2% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +189 33¢ | -250 70¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +189 33¢ | -250 70¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -118 | +200 | -245 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +198 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +206 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +239 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -120 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +212 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -5.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -245 | -197 | -4.6% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 43.5should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +152 38¢ |
All 5 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +152 38¢ |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -200 | +160 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -214 | +164 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -161 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -131 |
| Market (4 books) | -4.5 | -179 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +164 | +168 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmTitans to winour data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -107 | +198 | -240 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +210 | -255 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +186 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +162 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +5.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +198 | +191 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +124 43¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +124 43¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 44.5 -106 | -154 | +131 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -156 | +132 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -142 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (7 books) | -3.0 | -138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +131 | +142 | -2.0% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmUnder 42.5should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -231 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -336 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -379 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (7 books) | -9.5 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +320 | +311 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks1-0100%+0.91 units1 game
Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +0.91 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-0—nothing graded yet0 games
No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.
A Little Nasty2-167%+0.82 units3 games
Sep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.82 units8 picks voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Michigan State Spartans (spread), Arkansas Razorbacks (spread), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (spread), Ohio State Buckeyes (moneyline), Minnesota Golden Gophers (moneyline), California Golden Bears (moneyline), Texas A&M Aggies (spread), San Diego State Aztecs (spread).
1 pick voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: Texas State Bobcats (spread).
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 1-0 | 100.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 2-1 | 66.7% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| Not Nasty | 20 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
How it's going
It's 9 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 68 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 8 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.
Since 3:16pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.0Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deaconstoward Miami Hurricaneswith the public
- → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 29 | 11.02 |
| Sagarin | 27 | 12.51 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 14-14 | 50% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 322358 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.16 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40 | 3.00 |
| LowVig.ag | 112 | 1.34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 116 | 1.31 |
| DraftKings | 141 | 1.18 |
| Caesars | 123 | 1.12 |
| BetRivers | 151 | 1.12 |
| BetMGM | 107 | 1.10 |
| Fanatics | 142 | 1.10 |
| FanDuel | 164 | 1.09 |
| Bovada | 108 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 105 | 1.04 |
| Pinnacle | 107 | 1.00 |
| BetUS | 79 | 0.91 |
| MyBookie.ag | 86 | 0.90 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago