Buck Nasty's
Nasty Picks of the Week
Updated Sun 7:31 pm · TOM 2h ago · 2 priced · 0 leans · 66 waiting on the ratings
Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

ACTIONLouisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels
Ole Miss Rebels +7.0
-105as called

Buck's Take

On paper: 9 games look like Nasty Picks. 1 side, 8 totals. Every model we run agrees on them.

Why they're not Nasty Picks yet: It's September. The ratings are mostly last year's teams plus a guess. The picks haven't been tested against real results yet. We need 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides before we trust them. So far: 0 and 0.

Betting anyway? Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0 (the models say 44) and Louisiana Tech at LSU, Under 55.5 (the models say 49).

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameSpreadTotalLean
SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
CFB tomorrow 6:30 pm
+3.0
should be +2.5
53
should be 52.7
Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

SMU sideFlorida State side
Market
+3.0
SP+
+1.0
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
+7.0
We say
+2.5
Florida State +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida State to win · +125
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.
Pass
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Florida State +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail
The marketSMU by 3the number to beat
SP+SMU by 12.2 apart
FPISMU by 12 apart
SagarinSMU by 74.2 apart
We settle onSMU by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+109
FPI+1.0+111
Sagarin+7.0+215
Market (12 books)+3.0+135
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.051.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +3.0-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+125+131-1.1%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameSpreadTotalLean
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
NFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm
-3.5
should be -3.5
44.5
should be 44.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-4.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Seahawks to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56.
Pass
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.

Also out: Aaron Smith (LB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Terrion Arnold (CB, Seahawks), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart
SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart
We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-169
Sagarin-4.0-158
Market (12 books)-3.5-164
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.544.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -3.5+100+101-0.3%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-180-153-3.9%
TotalOver 44.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 leans showing so far.
GameSpreadTotalLean
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
NFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral
-3.5
should be -3.5
48
should be 48.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

49ers sideRams side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
49ers to win · +162 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Pass
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
49ers to win · +162 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Alex Johnson (CB, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, 49ers).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart
SagarinRams by 40.6 apart
We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-116
Sagarin-4.0-160
Market (12 books)-3.5-177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers +3.5-110-105-1.1%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML+162+147+2.4%
TotalOver 48.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes
CFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm
-53.5
no number
60.5
no number
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-53.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

5 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 2 leans showing so far.
GameSpreadTotalLean
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles
CFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm
-3.5
should be -2.0 · 1.4 pts on Rutgers
was -4.5
54.5
should be 55.2 · 0.7 on the Over
was 53.5
Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side
Market
-3.5
SP+
+3.0
FPI
-6.5
Sagarin
+5.0
We say
-2.0
Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Rutgers to win · +144 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Lean
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.

Full detail
The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart
FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart
SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart
We settle onBoston College by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+137
FPI-6.5-198
Sagarin+5.0+173
Market (10 books)-3.5-152
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.557.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5-115-127+2.5%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+144+125+3.4%
TotalOver 54.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks
CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
+6.5
should be +7.0
50.5
should be 51.1 · 0.7 on the Over
Lean Missouri, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Missouri: market says Missouri by 6.5, we say Missouri by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

Missouri sideKansas side
Market
+6.5
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+8.5
We say
+7.0
Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Missouri to win · -235 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 23% chance of rain.

A play at -4.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Missouri by 103.4 apart
FPIMissouri by 42.5 apart
SagarinMissouri by 8.52 apart
We settle onMissouri by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+292
FPI+4.0+152
Sagarin+8.5+250
Market (10 books)+6.5+208
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers -6.5-112-102-2.4%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML-235-209-2.5%
TotalOver 50.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack
CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-30.0
no number
49.5
no number
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-30.0-2963
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers
CFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-43.5
no number
54
no number
was 53.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-43.5-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans
CFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
-20.5
no number
57.5
no number
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-20.5-1112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

46 games9 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0.
GameSpreadTotalLean
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-12.5
should be -11.5 · 1.3 pts on Arkansas
was -11.5
57.5
should be 59 · 1.6 on the Over
was 56.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: both totals models 5.5 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Arkansas sideUtah side
Market
-12.5
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-11.5
Arkansas +12.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Arkansas to win · +367
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Opened -11.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Arkansas, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +14.0.

Full detail
The marketUtah by 12.5the number to beat
SP+Utah by 6.56.3 apart
FPIUtah by 8.54.3 apart
SagarinUtah by 8.54.4 apart
We settle onUtah by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-8.5-246
Sagarin-8.5-243
Market (10 books)-12.5-392
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.562.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +12.5-110-110-0.1%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+367+346priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+6.0
should be +4.5 · 1.3 pts on Michigan
was +4.5
43
should be 43.3
was 46.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Michigan +6.0: all 3 ratings 6.4 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side
Market
+6.0
SP+
-0.5
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
+4.5
Michigan +6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Michigan to win · +200 at TOM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Lean
the Over 43.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Michigan to win · +200 at TOM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.5.

Full detail
The marketOklahoma by 6the number to beat
SP+Michigan by 0.56.4 apart
FPIOklahoma by 15.2 apart
SagarinMichigan by 1.57.6 apart
We settle onOklahoma by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI+1.0+108
Sagarin-1.5-118
Market (12 books)+6.0+209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.043.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines +6.0-110-121+2.3%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML+200+164+4.6%
TotalOver 43.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+22.5
should be +22.0 · 0.5 pts on Oklahoma State
was +19.5
57.5
should be 56.5 · 1.1 on the Under
was 60.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 57.5: both totals models 5.2 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side
Market
+22.5
SP+
+20.0
FPI
+19.5
Sagarin
+25.0
We say
+22.0
Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 44 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oklahoma State to win · +998 at TOM
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1.4 off. That's 5.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1.4 off. That's 5.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 87°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5. The market has moved 3.0 away from Oklahoma State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat
SP+Oregon by 202.4 apart
FPIOregon by 19.52.8 apart
SagarinOregon by 252.3 apart
We settle onOregon by 2221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.0+1047
FPI+19.5+995
Sagarin+25.0+2060
Market (12 books)+22.5+1028
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.552.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOklahoma State Cowboys +22.5-110+129-8.7%
MoneylineOklahoma State Cowboys ML+998+1366priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm
+5.0
should be +4.5
was +6.5
57
should be 58.3 · 1.2 on the Over
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.0: both totals models 5.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side
Market
+5.0
SP+
+13.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+4.5
North Texas +5.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
North Texas to win · +160 at TOM
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.
Pass
the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 5.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 5.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 98°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).

Full detail
The marketUNLV by 5the number to beat
SP+UNLV by 138 apart
FPIUNLV by 41.2 apart
SagarinUNLV by 32 apart
We settle onUNLV by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+420
FPI+4.0+149
Sagarin+3.0+138
Market (12 books)+5.0+173
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.062.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +5.0-110-110+0.0%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+160+165-0.8%
TotalOver 57.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-28.5
should be -28.0
52
should be 50.4 · 1.6 on the Under
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 52.0: both totals models 7.6 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side
Market
-28.5
SP+
-26.5
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-33.5
We say
-28.0
Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +2296 at TOM
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat
SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart
FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart
SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart
We settle onNebraska by 2821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.5-2684
FPI-24.5-2042
Sagarin-33.5-8590
Market (12 books)-28.5-2092
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.044.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +28.5-110+141-10.9%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+2296+3449priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-9.5
should be -9.5
51
should be 52.9 · 1.7 on the Over
was 50.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 51.0: both totals models 5.6 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side
Market
-9.5
SP+
-18.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-9.5
Georgia State +9.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM
We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22.
Pass
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 5.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 5.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 45% chance of rain.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart
FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart
SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart
We settle onKennesaw State by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.5-853
FPI-9.5-275
Sagarin-8.5-245
Market (11 books)-9.5-291
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.056.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +9.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+272+278-0.4%
TotalOver 51.0-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+13.0
should be +12.0 · 0.8 pts on Georgia Tech
was +13.5
55
should be 56.1 · 1 on the Over
was 54.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 55.0: both totals models 4.7 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side
Market
+13.0
SP+
+9.0
FPI
+9.5
Sagarin
+9.0
We say
+12.0
Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Georgia Tech to win · +410 at TOM
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.

A play at +15.0 or better.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTennessee by 13the number to beat
SP+Tennessee by 93.8 apart
FPITennessee by 9.53.6 apart
SagarinTennessee by 93.8 apart
We settle onTennessee by 1221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.0+270
FPI+9.5+274
Sagarin+9.0+269
Market (12 books)+13.0+422
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+410+382priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+6.0
should be +6.0
was +6.5
59
should be 59.7 · 0.8 on the Over
was 57.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 59.0: both totals models 3.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side
Market
+6.0
SP+
+5.0
FPI
+8.5
Sagarin
+4.5
We say
+6.0
Florida Atlantic +6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30.
Pass
the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNavy by 6the number to beat
SP+Navy by 50.9 apart
FPINavy by 8.52.3 apart
SagarinNavy by 4.51.7 apart
We settle onNavy by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.0+172
FPI+8.5+245
Sagarin+4.5+158
Market (11 books)+6.0+192
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.062.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida Atlantic Owls +6.0-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineFlorida Atlantic Owls ML+180+185-0.7%
TotalOver 59.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-33.0
should be -32.5
was -31.5
55.5
should be 53.4 · 2.1 on the Under
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: both totals models 7.1 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side
Market
-33.0
SP+
-31.5
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-32.5
Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110
Covers 39 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +3500
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 7.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).

Full detail
The marketLSU by 33the number to beat
SP+LSU by 31.51.4 apart
FPILSU by 321.3 apart
SagarinLSU by 39.56.6 apart
We settle onLSU by 32.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-31.5-6293
FPI-32.0-6391
Sagarin-39.5-27247
Market (11 books)-33.0-3391
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.548.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0-110+156-13.3%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+3500+7481priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-9.0
should be -10.0 · 0.9 pts on East Carolina
was -8.5
56.5
should be 55.8 · 0.7 on the Under
was 54.5
Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9, we say East Carolina by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side
Market
-9.0
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-11.5
We say
-10.0
East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
East Carolina to win · -335 at TOM
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.

Opened -8.5, now -9.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -7.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketEast Carolina by 9the number to beat
SP+East Carolina by 12.53.6 apart
FPIEast Carolina by 11.52.4 apart
We settle onEast Carolina by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-400
FPI-11.5-347
Sagarindoesn't rate App State
Market (12 books)-9.0-284
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.554.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadEast Carolina Pirates -9.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineEast Carolina Pirates ML-335-292-2.5%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-14.5
should be -15.5 · 1.1 pts on Texas A&M
51.5
should be 52
was 50.5
Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side
Market
-14.5
SP+
-18.0
FPI
-17.5
Sagarin
-18.0
We say
-15.5
Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
Texas A&M to win · -650 at TOM
We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

A play at -14.0 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat
SP+Texas A&M by 183.7 apart
FPITexas A&M by 17.52.9 apart
SagarinTexas A&M by 183.7 apart
We settle onTexas A&M by 15.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.0-809
FPI-17.5-732
Sagarin-18.0-806
Market (12 books)-14.5-479
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.553.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies -14.5-107-122+3.3%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML-650-578priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-3.0
should be -2.5
was -3.5
49.5
should be 50.5 · 1.1 on the Over
was 50.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side
Market
-3.0
SP+
-1.5
FPI
+2.5
Sagarin
-2.0
We say
-2.5
South Florida +3.0 · +105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
South Florida to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.
Pass
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketArmy by 3the number to beat
SP+Army by 1.51.5 apart
FPISouth Florida by 2.55.5 apart
SagarinArmy by 20.8 apart
We settle onArmy by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-117
FPI+2.5+130
Sagarin-2.0-126
Market (12 books)-3.0-159
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.554.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls +3.0+105-105+2.3%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML+150+133+3.0%
TotalOver 49.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-18.5
should be -17.5 · 0.8 pts on Washington State
was -16.5
51.5
should be 51.5
Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 18.5, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side
Market
-18.5
SP+
-15.5
FPI
-11.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-17.5
Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Washington State to win · +805 at TOM
We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -16.5, now -18.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +22.0. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketKansas State by 18.5the number to beat
SP+Kansas State by 15.52.8 apart
FPIKansas State by 11.57.2 apart
SagarinKansas State by 190.4 apart
We settle onKansas State by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.5-585
FPI-11.5-344
Sagarin-19.0-895
Market (5 books)-18.5-843
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.551.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +18.5-110+110-4.9%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+805+753priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-18.0
should be -18.0
was -14.5
51
should be 50.5
was 51.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side
Market
-18.0
SP+
-17.5
FPI
-14.0
Sagarin
-20.0
We say
-18.0
Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Old Dominion to win · +652 at TOM
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 20% chance of rain.

Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Full detail
The marketVirginia Tech by 18the number to beat
SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50.3 apart
FPIVirginia Tech by 144 apart
SagarinVirginia Tech by 201.8 apart
We settle onVirginia Tech by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-757
FPI-14.0-475
Sagarin-20.0-1006
Market (12 books)-18.0-693
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOld Dominion Monarchs +18.0-110+119-6.8%
MoneylineOld Dominion Monarchs ML+652+779priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+23.5
should be +23.5
49.5
should be 51 · 1.4 on the Over
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side
Market
+23.5
SP+
+23.0
FPI
+20.0
Sagarin
+29.5
We say
+23.5
Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 41 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Temple to win · +1248 at TOM
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Full detail
The marketPenn State by 23.5the number to beat
SP+Penn State by 230.4 apart
FPIPenn State by 203.4 apart
SagarinPenn State by 29.56.2 apart
We settle onPenn State by 23.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1604
FPI+20.0+1049
Sagarin+29.5+4463
Market (12 books)+23.5+1155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.556.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +23.5-110+142-11.0%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+1248+1680priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+4.5
should be +4.0
was +5.5
50
should be 49.8
was 50.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side
Market
+4.5
SP+
+3.5
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
+4.0
Purdue +4.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Purdue to win · +164 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Pass
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Purdue to win · +164 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.

Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).

Full detail
The marketWake Forest by 4.5the number to beat
SP+Wake Forest by 3.51.1 apart
FPIWake Forest by 31.3 apart
Sagarina pick'em4.6 apart
We settle onWake Forest by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.5+143
FPI+3.0+141
Sagarinpk-101
Market (12 books)+4.5+177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +4.5-115-112-0.6%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+164+157+1.1%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 am
-40.0
should be -39.0 · 1.2 pts on Western Kentucky
was -35.5
54
should be 54.4
was 52.5
Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 40, we say Georgia by 39. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side
Market
-40.0
SP+
-36.0
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-42.0
We say
-39.0
Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Western Kentucky to win · +10000 at TOM
We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -35.5, now -40.0. The market has moved 4.3 away from Western Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +40.5.

Full detail
The marketGeorgia by 40the number to beat
SP+Georgia by 364.1 apart
FPIGeorgia by 328.1 apart
SagarinGeorgia by 421.8 apart
We settle onGeorgia by 3930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-36.0-13246
FPI-32.0-6508
Sagarin-42.0-41331
Market (10 books)-40.0-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.055.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0-105-116+2.6%
MoneylineWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers ML+10000+22654priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+9.5
should be +9.5
was +8.5
49
should be 48.2 · 0.7 on the Under
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side
Market
+9.5
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+12.5
Sagarin
+10.0
We say
+9.5
Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Alabama to win · -420 at TOM
We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketAlabama by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Alabama by 100.7 apart
FPIAlabama by 12.53.1 apart
SagarinAlabama by 100.4 apart
We settle onAlabama by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+302
FPI+12.5+398
Sagarin+10.0+292
Market (12 books)+9.5+339
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.045.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -9.5-115+103-4.3%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-420-284priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
should be -7.5
was -7.0
50.5
should be 50.8
was 51.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-7.5
FPI
-8.0
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-7.5
BYU -7.5 · -110
Covers 46 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
BYU to win · -300
We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
BYU to win · -300
We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 79°F.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat
SP+BYU by 7.50.1 apart
FPIBYU by 80.6 apart
SagarinBYU by 8.51.2 apart
We settle onBYU by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.5-226
FPI-8.0-240
Sagarin-8.5-256
Market (12 books)-7.5-260
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBYU Cougars -7.5-110+116-6.0%
MoneylineBYU Cougars ML-300-227-5.6%
TotalOver 50.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-3.0
should be -2.0 · 1.2 pts on California
was +2.5
56
should be 55.9
was 53.5
Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 2. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side
Market
-3.0
SP+
+2.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.5
We say
-2.0
California +3.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
California to win · +135
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.
Pass
the Under 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
California to win · +135
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.5. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketSyracuse by 3the number to beat
SP+California by 2.55.7 apart
FPISyracuse by 0.52.5 apart
SagarinCalifornia by 2.55.5 apart
We settle onSyracuse by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+133
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin+2.5+129
Market (12 books)-3.0-145
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.054.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +3.0-110-114+1.0%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML+135+122+2.5%
TotalUnder 56.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-6.0
should be -6.5
was -7.5
53.5
should be 54.9 · 1.4 on the Over
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side
Market
-6.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-4.5
Sagarin
-11.0
We say
-6.5
Illinois -6.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Illinois to win · -235
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62.
Pass
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Illinois -6.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat
SP+Illinois by 70.8 apart
FPIIllinois by 4.51.9 apart
SagarinIllinois by 115 apart
We settle onIllinois by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-211
FPI-4.5-159
Sagarin-11.0-340
Market (12 books)-6.0-204
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.558.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -6.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-235-199-3.6%
TotalOver 53.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-17.0
should be -18.0 · 0.7 pts on Michigan State
was -16.5
51
should be 50.8
was 51.5
Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 17, we say Michigan State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side
Market
-17.0
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-22.5
We say
-18.0
Michigan State -17.0 · -110
Covers 57 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · -1024
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -16.5, now -17.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at -17.5. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketMichigan State by 17the number to beat
SP+Michigan State by 20.53.3 apart
FPIMichigan State by 19.52.2 apart
SagarinMichigan State by 22.55.3 apart
We settle onMichigan State by 1821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-1106
FPI-19.5-950
Sagarin-22.5-1469
Market (12 books)-17.0-657
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.050.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans -17.0-110-135+5.1%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML-1024-778priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+12.5
should be +13.5 · 0.7 pts on Maryland
was +13.5
53.5
should be 53.3
Lean Maryland, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Maryland: market says Maryland by 12.5, we say Maryland by 13.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Maryland sideUConn side
Market
+12.5
SP+
+15.0
FPI
+10.0
Sagarin
+16.5
We say
+13.5
Maryland -12.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Maryland to win · -525
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Maryland -12.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 77°F.

Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -11.0.

Full detail
The marketMaryland by 12.5the number to beat
SP+Maryland by 152.3 apart
FPIMaryland by 102.6 apart
SagarinMaryland by 16.53.9 apart
We settle onMaryland by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+529
FPI+10.0+295
Sagarin+16.5+649
Market (12 books)+12.5+403
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins -12.5-110-114+0.9%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML-525-436priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+1.0
should be pk · 0.9 pts on Minnesota
was -2.5
55.5
should be 54.9 · 0.6 on the Under
was 53.5
Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-3.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
-3.5
We say
pk
Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Minnesota to win · -103 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.
Pass
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 24% chance of rain.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.7 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.0.

Full detail
The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat
SP+Minnesota by 3.54.6 apart
FPIMinnesota by 0.51.5 apart
SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.5 apart
We settle ona pick'em21% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-146
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin-3.5-145
Market (12 books)+1.0+105
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.552.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +1.0-105-105-0.1%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML-103+101-0.9%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
should be -7.0 · 0.7 pts on UCF
was -8.5
57
should be 56.1 · 1 on the Under
was 56.5
Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-4.0
We say
-7.0
UCF +7.5 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
UCF to win · +250
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.
Lean
the Under 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
UCF to win · +250
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +7.0.

Full detail
The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat
SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.8 apart
FPIPittsburgh by 43.6 apart
We settle onPittsburgh by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-204
FPI-4.0-152
Sagarindoesn't rate UCF
Market (12 books)-7.5-260
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.053.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +7.5-110-126+3.4%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+250+208+3.9%
TotalUnder 57.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+1.0
should be pk · 0.9 pts on Texas State
was +1.5
64.5
should be 67.4 · 2.9 on the Over
Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-1.0
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
pk
Texas State +1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texas State to win · -108
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.
Pass
the Over 64.5 · -110
SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Texas State +1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Opened +1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Texas State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat
SP+Texas State by 12.2 apart
FPITexas State by 34.2 apart
Sagarina pick'em1.1 apart
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-113
FPI-3.0-141
Sagarinpk-101
Market (12 books)+1.0+104
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.571.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas State Bobcats +1.0-110-104-1.4%
MoneylineTexas State Bobcats ML-108+101-2.2%
TotalOver 64.5-110-133shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers
CFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-10.5
should be -10.5
was -7.5
56
should be 56.8 · 0.9 on the Over
was 54.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-13.5
FPI
-7.0
We say
-10.5
UL Monroe +10.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
UL Monroe to win · +330
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 3.0 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 3.0 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 40% chance of rain.

Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketUAB by 10.5the number to beat
SP+UAB by 13.53 apart
FPIUAB by 73.6 apart
We settle onUAB by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-451
FPI-7.0-211
Sagarindoesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (12 books)-10.5-346
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.058.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUL Monroe Warhawks +10.5-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineUL Monroe Warhawks ML+330+313priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.4.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores
CFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm
-20.5
should be -21.5 · 0.9 pts on Vanderbilt
was -21.5
53.5
should be 54.9 · 1.4 on the Over
was 55.5
Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20.5, we say Vanderbilt by 21.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side
Market
-20.5
SP+
-25.0
FPI
-15.5
Sagarin
-28.5
We say
-21.5
Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 60 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Vanderbilt to win · -1544 at TOM
We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 31% chance of rain.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketVanderbilt by 20.5the number to beat
SP+Vanderbilt by 254.4 apart
FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.8 apart
SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.1 apart
We settle onVanderbilt by 21.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-2097
FPI-15.5-587
Sagarin-28.5-3727
Market (12 books)-20.5-864
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.560.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores -20.5-113-150+6.9%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML-1544-1259priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos
CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-8.5
should be -8.0
was -7.5
55.5
should be 56.1 · 0.7 on the Over
was 52.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side
Market
-8.5
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.0
We say
-8.0
Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Memphis to win · +260 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.
Pass
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Boise State).

Full detail
The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat
SP+Boise State by 71.5 apart
FPIBoise State by 62.3 apart
SagarinBoise State by 90.3 apart
We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-211
FPI-6.0-194
Sagarin-9.0-257
Market (12 books)-8.5-276
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.557.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMemphis Tigers +8.5-110-120+2.1%
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+260+237+1.9%
TotalOver 55.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers
CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-10.5
should be -7.5 · 2.8 pts on Buffalo
49
should be 48.5
was 52.5
Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 7.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-0.5
FPI
-2.0
We say
-7.5
Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 59 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat
SP+Florida International by 0.510.1 apart
FPIFlorida International by 28.4 apart
We settle onFlorida International by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI-2.0-125
Sagarindoesn't rate Florida International
Market (12 books)-10.5-334
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.047.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.5-112-147+6.6%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+310+229priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats
CFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-2.5
should be -2.0
was -1.5
51.5
should be 50.8 · 0.7 on the Under
was 52.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side
Market
-2.5
SP+
+2.0
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
-2.0
Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Jacksonville State to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.
Pass
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 81°F.

Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat
SP+Jacksonville State by 24.3 apart
FPIOhio by 8.55.8 apart
SagarinOhio by 1.51.1 apart
We settle onOhio by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.0+121
FPI-8.5-245
Sagarin-1.5-116
Market (12 books)-2.5-114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.549.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5-110+105-3.5%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML+105+126-4.5%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-15.0
should be -14.5
was -17.5
57.5
should be 58.5 · 1 on the Over
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side
Market
-15.0
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-14.0
We say
-14.5
Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Middle Tennessee to win · +495 at TOM
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F.

Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMarshall by 15the number to beat
SP+Marshall by 20.55.5 apart
FPIMarshall by 9.55.5 apart
SagarinMarshall by 141.1 apart
We settle onMarshall by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-1106
FPI-9.5-278
Sagarin-14.0-467
Market (11 books)-15.0-509
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.560.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0-115+107-5.1%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+495+514priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.6 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+14.0
should be +13.5
was +15.5
52
should be 52.8 · 0.8 on the Over
was 51.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side
Market
+14.0
SP+
+17.5
FPI
+7.5
We say
+13.5
Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Sam Houston to win · +440 at TOM
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat
SP+Tulsa by 17.53.7 apart
FPITulsa by 7.56.7 apart
We settle onTulsa by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.5+757
FPI+7.5+217
Sagarindoesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (12 books)+14.0+454
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.054.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +14.0-115+104-4.4%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+440+448priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.6 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-10.5
should be -11.0
was -11.5
50.5
should be 51
was 51.5
Lean Tulane, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Tulane: market says Tulane by 10.5, we say Tulane by 11. That can change when the new numbers land.

South Alabama sideTulane side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-15.0
Sagarin
-12.0
We say
-11.0
Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Tulane to win · -450 at TOM
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Opened -11.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tulane, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -7.5.

Full detail
The marketTulane by 10.5the number to beat
SP+Tulane by 12.52 apart
FPITulane by 154.5 apart
SagarinTulane by 121.6 apart
We settle onTulane by 1121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-395
FPI-15.0-535
Sagarin-12.0-375
Market (12 books)-10.5-341
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTulane Green Wave -10.5-110+102-2.9%
MoneylineTulane Green Wave ML-450-328priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm
-11.0
should be -9.5 · 1.7 pts on San Diego State
was -10.5
53
should be 51.9 · 1.1 on the Under
was 51.5
Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 11, we say UCLA by 9.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side
Market
-11.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-1.0
Sagarin
-17.0
We say
-9.5
San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
San Diego State to win · +350 at TOM
We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketUCLA by 11the number to beat
SP+UCLA by 74.1 apart
FPIUCLA by 19.8 apart
SagarinUCLA by 176.1 apart
We settle onUCLA by 9.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-209
FPI-1.0-114
Sagarin-17.0-698
Market (12 books)-11.0-372
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.050.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +11.0-110-127+3.6%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+350+274priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-21.0
should be -22.5 · 1.5 pts on Clemson
was -23.5
56
should be 55.3 · 0.9 on the Under
Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 21, we say Clemson by 22.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side
Market
-21.0
SP+
-26.0
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-30.5
We say
-22.5
Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 62 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Clemson to win · -1530 at TOM
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F, 33% chance of rain.

Opened -23.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 2.4 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
The marketClemson by 21the number to beat
SP+Clemson by 265.1 apart
FPIClemson by 24.53.3 apart
SagarinClemson by 30.59.7 apart
We settle onClemson by 22.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.0-2522
FPI-24.5-1922
Sagarin-30.5-5310
Market (11 books)-21.0-881
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.053.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers -21.0-110-160+9.2%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-1530-1476priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-13.5
should be -14.5 · 0.8 pts on Iowa
was -14.0
41
should be 41.5
was 42
Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 13.5, we say Iowa by 14.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side
Market
-13.5
SP+
-17.0
FPI
-13.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-14.5
Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Iowa to win · -700 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 21% chance of rain.

A play at -13.0 or better.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketIowa by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Iowa by 173.7 apart
FPIIowa by 13.50.2 apart
SagarinIowa by 195.6 apart
We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-709
FPI-13.5-457
Sagarin-19.0-910
Market (12 books)-13.5-494
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -13.5-113-121+1.8%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-700-490priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-1.0
should be pk · 1 pts on Ohio State
48.5
should be 48.9
was 47.5
Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says Texas by 1, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side
Market
-1.0
SP+
+7.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
pk
Ohio State +1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Ohio State to win · -106
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45.
Pass
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Ohio State +1.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketTexas by 1the number to beat
SP+Ohio State by 7.58.9 apart
FPITexas by 0.50.7 apart
SagarinOhio State by 23.3 apart
We settle ona pick'em30% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+228
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin+2.0+126
Market (11 books)-1.0-102
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes +1.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML-106+102-1.9%
TotalOver 48.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+26.5
should be +26.5
was +27.5
51
should be 50.4 · 0.5 on the Under
was 51.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side
Market
+26.5
SP+
+25.0
FPI
+26.0
Sagarin
+33.5
We say
+26.5
Oregon State +26.5 · -110
Covers 40 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oregon State to win · +1500
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.

Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).

Full detail
The marketTexas Tech by 26.5the number to beat
SP+Texas Tech by 251.5 apart
FPITexas Tech by 260.7 apart
SagarinTexas Tech by 33.56.8 apart
We settle onTexas Tech by 26.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++25.0+2195
FPI+26.0+2451
Sagarin+33.5+8590
Market (12 books)+26.5+1444
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers +26.5-110+152-12.7%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML+1500+2659priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers
CFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm
-30.0
should be -31.5 · 1.3 pts on Auburn
was -29.5
52
should be 51.2 · 1 on the Under
Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 30, we say Auburn by 31.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side
Market
-30.0
SP+
-34.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-31.5
Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 64 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Auburn to win · -5000 at TOM
We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 43% chance of rain.

A play at -30.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketAuburn by 30the number to beat
SP+Auburn by 34.54.4 apart
FPIAuburn by 19.510.7 apart
SagarinAuburn by 39.59.4 apart
We settle onAuburn by 31.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.5-10097
FPI-19.5-933
Sagarin-39.5-25812
Market (11 books)-30.0-1832
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.048.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAuburn Tigers -30.0-110-181+12.0%
MoneylineAuburn Tigers ML-5000-5898priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm
+4.0
should be +3.5
was +6.5
47.5
should be 47.9
was 49.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side
Market
+4.0
SP+
-1.0
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+3.5
Air Force +4.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Air Force to win · +154
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36.
Pass
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Air Force to win · +154
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 36.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 28% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Air Force).

Full detail
The marketNorth Dakota State by 4the number to beat
SP+Air Force by 14.8 apart
FPINorth Dakota State by 30.9 apart
SagarinNorth Dakota State by 30.9 apart
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-109
FPI+3.0+138
Sagarin+3.0+139
Market (9 books)+4.0+171
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.548.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +4.0-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+154+148+0.9%
TotalOver 47.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs
CFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm
-18.5
should be -18.0 · 0.7 pts on Sacramento State
46
should be 46.3
was 48.5
Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 18. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side
Market
-18.5
SP+
-24.0
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-16.0
We say
-18.0
Sacramento State +18.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +677
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F.

A play at +22.5 or better.

Full detail
The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat
SP+Fresno State by 245.6 apart
FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart
SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart
We settle onFresno State by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1887
FPI-16.0-601
Sagarin-16.0-619
Market (10 books)-18.5-692
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.047.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +18.5-110+113-5.4%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+677+770priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 46.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans
CFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm
-30.5
should be -30.0 · 0.6 pts on Louisiana
was -28.5
60
should be 60.6 · 0.6 on the Over
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side
Market
-30.5
SP+
-30.5
FPI
-28.0
We say
-30.0
Louisiana +30.5 · -110
Covers 39 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana to win · +2800
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 60.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Sources disagree
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Opened -28.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward USC).

Full detail
The marketUSC by 30.5the number to beat
SP+USC by 30.50.2 apart
FPIUSC by 282.8 apart
We settle onUSC by 3040% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-30.5-5134
FPI-28.0-3373
Sagarindoesn't rate Louisiana
Market (10 books)-30.5-2122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.061.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns +30.5-110+155-13.1%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML+2800+4813priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 60.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-35.5
no number
51.5
no number
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-35.5-4883
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals
CFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
-16.0
no number
was -18.5
56.5
no number
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-16.0-560
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
CFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm
-10.0
no number
50.5
no number
was 51.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (10 books)-10.0-322
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.5

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

13 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameSpreadTotalLean
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
-8.0
should be -8.0
40.5
should be 41
Held, QB out

Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

Browns sideJaguars side
Market
-8.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.5
We say
-8.0
Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Held: a quarterback is out and the ratings don't know it.
Held, QB out
Browns to win · +311 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Held, QB out
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Held, QB out
If you're betting it anyway
Nothing here worth even a coin flip. Leave it.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Elijah Chatman (DT, Browns), Travis Bell (DT, Browns).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat
nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart
SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart
We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-197
Sagarin-9.5-310
Market (12 books)-8.0-330
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +8.0-113-112-0.2%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+311+252priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
-3.0
should be -3.0
42
should be 42.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Falcons sideSteelers side
Market
-3.0
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.0
Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Steelers to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.
Pass
the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), Keshawn Banks (DE, Falcons), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons), Anterio Thompson (DT, Falcons).

Full detail
The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat
nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart
SagarinSteelers by 41.1 apart
We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.0-160
Market (12 books)-3.0-163
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.043.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers -3.0-125-103-4.7%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML-180-143-5.4%
TotalOver 42.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
+3.5
should be +3.0
47.5
should be 48.1
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Ravens sideColts side
Market
+3.5
nfelo
+0.5
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+3.0
Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Colts to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Pass
the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Colts to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens), Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Danny Pinter (C, Ravens).

Full detail
The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart
SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+108
Sagarin+3.0+145
Market (12 books)+3.5+161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.549.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.5-120-107-2.8%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+150+144+1.0%
TotalOver 47.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
pk
should be pk
44
should be 45.7 · 1.5 on the Over
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Bills sideTexans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-0.5
Sagarin
pk
We say
pk
Texans pk · -106 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texans to win · -107 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 46.
Pass
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Zane Durant (DT, Bills).

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart
Sagarina pick'em0 apart
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-0.5-106
Sagarinpk+100
Market (12 books)pk+100
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.047.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans pk-106-101-1.2%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML-107-101-1.4%
TotalOver 44.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
+2.5
should be +2.5
47.5
should be 46.7 · 0.7 on the Under
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Bears sidePanthers side
Market
+2.5
nfelo
+1.0
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
+2.5
Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Panthers to win · +130 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.
Pass
the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Coby Bryant (S, Bears).

Full detail
The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat
nfeloBears by 11.7 apart
SagarinBears by 20.4 apart
We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+110
Sagarin+2.0+127
Market (12 books)+2.5+144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.544.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers +2.5+100+105-1.1%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+130+130+0.1%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
-4.0
should be -4.0
51
should be 50.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Buccaneers sideBengals side
Market
-4.0
nfelo
-2.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-4.0
Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketBengals by 4the number to beat
nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart
SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart
We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-136
Sagarin-4.0-163
Market (12 books)-4.0-188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0-113-105-1.9%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+173+157+2.4%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
-7.0
should be -7.0
50
should be 49.3 · 0.9 on the Under
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Saints sideLions side
Market
-7.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-7.5
We say
-7.0
Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Saints to win · +250 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.
Pass
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints), Jaylan Ford (LB, Saints). and 1 more

Full detail
The marketLions by 7the number to beat
nfeloLions by 60.8 apart
SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-206
Sagarin-7.5-246
Market (12 books)-7.0-272
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.045.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +7.0-116-107-1.9%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+250+226+2.1%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
NFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm
pk
should be -1.5 · 1.5 pts on Titans
was -1.0
39
should be 41.8 · 2.7 on the Over
Lean Titans, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Titans: market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Jets sideTitans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.5
We say
-1.5
Titans pk · -122 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Titans to win · -129 at TOM
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50.
Pass
the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans), Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Tyler Baron (DE, Jets).

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart
SagarinTitans by 4.54.4 apart
We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.5-166
Market (12 books)pk-115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.045.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans pk-122-119-0.7%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-129-119-2.1%
TotalOver 39.0-110-135shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm
-10.0
should be -9.5
47
should be 46.2 · 0.9 on the Under
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Cardinals sideChargers side
Market
-10.0
nfelo
-4.0
Sagarin
-14.0
We say
-9.5
Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Cardinals to win · +400 at TOM
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Scott Matlock (FB, Chargers), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals). and 1 more

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketChargers by 10the number to beat
nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart
SagarinChargers by 144 apart
We settle onChargers by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-161
Sagarin-14.0-540
Market (12 books)-10.0-419
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.044.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArizona Cardinals +10.0-115-115+0.0%
MoneylineArizona Cardinals ML+400+314priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.2 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm
-1.0
should be -1.0
46
should be 45.1 · 0.7 on the Under
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Packers sideVikings side
Market
-1.0
nfelo
-4.5
Sagarin
+0.5
We say
-1.0
Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Vikings to win · -122 at TOM
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 49.
Pass
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

Also out: Marcus Allen (CB, Vikings), Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Tyler Batty (LB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Collin Oliver (DE, Packers). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketVikings by 1the number to beat
nfeloVikings by 4.53.3 apart
SagarinPackers by 0.51.5 apart
We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-165
Sagarin+0.5+106
Market (12 books)-1.0-112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Vikings -1.0-115-109-1.4%
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML-122-115-1.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm
-3.5
should be -3.5
40.5
should be 40.8
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Dolphins sideRaiders side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
Sagarin
-5.5
We say
-3.5
Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Raiders to win · -185 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Pass
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders), Chigozie Anusiem (CB, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart
SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart
We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-120
Sagarin-5.5-194
Market (12 books)-3.5-165
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders -3.5-105+103-1.9%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML-185-150-4.9%
TotalOver 40.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
NFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm
-5.0
should be -5.0
44.5
should be 44.8
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Commanders sideEagles side
Market
-5.0
nfelo
-4.0
Sagarin
-6.5
We say
-5.0
Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Eagles to win · -234 at TOM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.
Pass
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway
Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Andre' Sam (S, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Curtis Jacobs (LB, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketEagles by 5the number to beat
nfeloEagles by 41 apart
SagarinEagles by 6.51.3 apart
We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-158
Sagarin-6.5-208
Market (12 books)-5.0-205
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.545.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -5.0-112+102-3.4%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-234-179-5.9%
TotalOver 44.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants
NFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pm
+3.0
should be +2.5
48
should be 48.4
Lean Giants, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Giants: market says Cowboys by 3, we say Cowboys by 2.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Cowboys sideGiants side
Market
+3.0
nfelo
-1.0
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
+2.5
Giants +3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Giants to win · +132 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.
Pass
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).

A play at +4.5 or better.

Also out: Korie Black (CB, Giants), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Devin Moore (CB, Cowboys), Marist Liufau (LB, Cowboys), Kelvin Gilliam Jr. (DT, Cowboys).

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketCowboys by 3the number to beat
nfeloGiants by 14 apart
SagarinCowboys by 20.8 apart
We settle onCowboys by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-112
Sagarin+2.0+129
Market (12 books)+3.0+144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.050.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +3.0-113-104-2.1%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+132+133-0.3%
TotalOver 48.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units
LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00
WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93
LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00
WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95
LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00
WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Scoreboard

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How Sunday 6 September went

Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.

What we saidRight-wrongRate
Leaned, no bet1-0100%
Game by game
RightWashington State CougarsWashington State Cougars at Washington Huskieswon by 14Leaned, no bet

How it's going

3-3Record
-0.2Units
-3.5%ROI
8Open

It's 6 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

Log the bets you took

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Saved
66 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 2 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 66 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 68 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 1 was worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 7:21 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 2.9Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
  • → 2.5Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinalstoward Stony Brook Seawolvesagainst the public
  • → 1.8North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falconstoward Air Force Falconsagainst the public
  • → 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
  • → 1.3Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illinitoward Duke Blue Devilsagainst the public
  • → 1.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wavetoward South Alabama Jaguarsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 1 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 23215 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.32 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
DraftKings680.60
BetOnline.ag680.54
LowVig.ag650.48
FanDuel620.45
BetMGM630.39
BetRivers640.30
TOM520.30
MyBookie.ag580.28
BetUS640.21
Bovada620.19
Caesars650.15
Pinnacle610.12
Fanatics670.10

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated today
  • nfelo updated today
Built 7:31 PM. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Odds API calls left this month: 19776.