Buck Nasty's
Nasty Picks of the Week
Updated Sun 5:20 pm. TOM's lines from just now. 17 games priced: 1 lean. 56 more wait for the ratings to rebuild after this weekend's games.
Track record stat unlocks after 30 graded disagreements with the market (0 so far).

Buck's Take

On paper: 11 games look like Nasty Picks. 2 sides, 9 totals. Every model we run agrees on them.

Why they're not Nasty Picks yet: It's September. The ratings are mostly last year's teams plus a guess. The picks haven't been tested against real results yet. We need 150 graded totals and 30 graded sides before we trust them. So far: 0 and 0.

Betting anyway? Buck likes UNLV at North Texas, Over 57.0 (the models say 65) and Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52.0 (the models say 44).

Today

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
Louisville Cardinals at Ole Miss Rebels
6:30 pm · neutral
-6.5
-6.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Ole Miss by 6.5, we say Ole Miss by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Louisville sideOle Miss side
Market
-6.5
SP+
-5.5
FPI
-6.5
Sagarin
-9.0
We say
-6.5
Ole Miss -6.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Ole Miss to win · -258 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.
Pass
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Ole Miss -6.5 · -115 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketOle Miss by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Ole Miss by 5.51.1 apart
FPIOle Miss by 6.50.1 apart
SagarinOle Miss by 92.6 apart
We settle onOle Miss by 6.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-171
FPI-6.5-193
Sagarin-9.0-250
Market (11 books)-6.5-224
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.054.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOle Miss Rebels -6.5-115-101-3.2%
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML-258-192-6.3%
TotalUnder 55.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Wisconsin Badgers at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
6:30 pm · neutral
-21.0
-21.0
Pass

Pass. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.

Wisconsin sideNotre Dame side
Market
-21.0
SP+
-22.5
FPI
-21.0
Sagarin
-18.5
We say
-21.0
Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Notre Dame to win · -2000 at TOM
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Notre Dame -21.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketNotre Dame by 21the number to beat
SP+Notre Dame by 22.51.7 apart
FPINotre Dame by 210 apart
SagarinNotre Dame by 18.52.5 apart
We settle onNotre Dame by 2131% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1167
FPI-21.0-949
Sagarin-18.5-701
Market (12 books)-21.0-1010
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNotre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0-115+105-4.7%
MoneylineNotre Dame Fighting Irish ML-2000-946priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Tomorrow

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
SMU Mustangs at Florida State Seminoles
tomorrow 6:30 pm
+3.0
+2.5
Pass

Pass. Market says SMU by 3, we say SMU by 2.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.

SMU sideFlorida State side
Market
+3.0
SP+
+1.0
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
+7.0
We say
+2.5
Florida State +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida State to win · +125
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.
Pass
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Florida State to win · +125. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.
Full detail
The marketSMU by 3the number to beat
SP+SMU by 12.2 apart
FPISMU by 12 apart
SagarinSMU by 74.2 apart
We settle onSMU by 2.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+108
FPI+1.0+110
Sagarin+7.0+205
Market (12 books)+3.0+135
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.052.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +3.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+125+126-0.2%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Wed Sep 9

1 gameNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks
wed 9 sep, 7:20 pm · NFL
-3.5
-3.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Patriots sideSeahawks side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-4.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Seahawks to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56.
Pass
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Seahawks -3.5 · +100 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Also out: Aaron Smith (LB, Seahawks), Irv Charles (WR, Seahawks), Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Terrion Arnold (CB, Seahawks), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots), Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketSeahawks by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloSeahawks by 4.51.1 apart
SagarinSeahawks by 40.4 apart
We settle onSeahawks by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-169
Sagarin-4.0-158
Market (12 books)-3.5-164
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.544.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -3.5+100+101-0.3%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-180-153-3.9%
TotalOver 44.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Thu Sep 10

2 gamesNothing worth betting yet.
GameMarketOursLean
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams
thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutral · NFL
-3.5
-3.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Rams by 3.5, we say Rams by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

49ers sideRams side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.5
49ers +3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
49ers to win · +162 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Pass
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: 49ers to win · +162 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Alex Johnson (CB, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Sam Okuayinonu (DT, 49ers).

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
The marketRams by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRams by 1.52.2 apart
SagarinRams by 40.6 apart
We settle onRams by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-116
Sagarin-4.0-160
Market (12 books)-3.5-177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML+162+147+2.4%
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers +3.5-110-105-1.1%
TotalOver 48.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami Hurricanes
thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm
-53.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-53.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.5

Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Fri Sep 11

6 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 2 leans showing so far.
GameMarketOursLean
Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles
fri 11 sep, 6:30 pm
-3.5
was -4.5
-1.5
Lean Rutgers, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Rutgers: market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Rutgers sideBoston College side
Market
-3.5
SP+
+3.0
FPI
-6.5
Sagarin
+5.0
We say
-1.5
Rutgers +3.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Rutgers to win · +145 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42.
Lean
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 3.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Rutgers to win · +145 at TOM. We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42.

Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +4.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketBoston College by 3.5the number to beat
SP+Rutgers by 36.5 apart
FPIBoston College by 6.52.9 apart
SagarinRutgers by 58.7 apart
We settle onBoston College by 1.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+135
FPI-6.5-190
Sagarin+5.0+168
Market (10 books)-3.5-157
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.557.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5-115-121+1.3%
MoneylineRutgers Scarlet Knights ML+145+115+5.6%
TotalOver 54.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks
fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
+6.5
+7.0
Lean Missouri, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Missouri: market says Missouri by 6.5, we say Missouri by 7. That can change when the new numbers land.

Missouri sideKansas side
Market
+6.5
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+8.5
We say
+7.0
Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Missouri to win · -242 at TOM
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Missouri -6.5 · -112 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

A play at -5.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketMissouri by 6.5the number to beat
SP+Missouri by 103.4 apart
FPIMissouri by 42.5 apart
SagarinMissouri by 8.52 apart
We settle onMissouri by 731% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+271
FPI+4.0+149
Sagarin+8.5+235
Market (9 books)+6.5+209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers -6.5-112-107-1.0%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML-242-204-3.7%
TotalOver 50.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Villanova Wildcats at Louisville Cardinals
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-35.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-35.5-2740
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Richmond Spiders at NC State Wolfpack
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-30.0
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-30.0-2963
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.5

Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia Cavaliers
fri 11 sep, 6:00 pm
-43.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-43.5-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State Spartans
fri 11 sep, 7:00 pm
-20.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)-20.5-1112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5

San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sat Sep 12

49 games11 Nasty Candidates. Strongest: UNLV at North Texas, Over 57.0.
GameMarketOursLean
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-12.0
-10.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.5: both totals models 5.5 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Arkansas sideUtah side
Market
-12.0
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-10.0
Arkansas +12.0 · -110
Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
Arkansas to win · +345
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.5 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Arkansas +12.0 · -110. Covers 56 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Full detail
The marketUtah by 12the number to beat
SP+Utah by 6.55.3 apart
FPIUtah by 8.53.4 apart
SagarinUtah by 8.53.5 apart
We settle onUtah by 1045% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-190
FPI-8.5-232
Sagarin-8.5-229
Market (10 books)-12.0-375
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.562.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +12.0-110-125+3.2%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+345+280priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+6.0
was +4.5
+3.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Michigan +6.0: all 3 ratings 6.4 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oklahoma sideMichigan side
Market
+6.0
SP+
-0.5
FPI
+1.0
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
+3.0
Michigan +6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
Michigan to win · +201 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.
Lean
the Over 43.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Michigan to win · +201 at TOM. We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 33. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.

Opened +4.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.6 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
The marketOklahoma by 6the number to beat
SP+Michigan by 0.56.4 apart
FPIOklahoma by 15.2 apart
SagarinMichigan by 1.57.6 apart
We settle onOklahoma by 345% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI+1.0+108
Sagarin-1.5-117
Market (12 books)+6.0+215
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.044.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines +6.0-110-132+4.6%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML+201+136+9.1%
TotalOver 43.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State Cowboys
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+22.5
was +19.5
+21.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 57.5: both totals models 3.7 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Oregon sideOklahoma State side
Market
+22.5
SP+
+20.0
FPI
+19.5
Sagarin
+25.0
We say
+21.5
Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oklahoma State to win · +998 at TOM
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.7 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Oklahoma State +22.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +19.5, now +22.5. The market has moved 3.0 away from Oklahoma State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +23.5. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketOregon by 22.5the number to beat
SP+Oregon by 202.4 apart
FPIOregon by 19.52.8 apart
SagarinOregon by 252.3 apart
We settle onOregon by 21.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.0+847
FPI+19.5+810
Sagarin+25.0+1525
Market (12 books)+22.5+1028
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.553.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOklahoma State Cowboys +22.5-110-113+0.8%
MoneylineOklahoma State Cowboys ML+998+1035priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green
sat 12 sep, 2:45 pm
+5.0
was +6.5
+4.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 57.0: both totals models 7.6 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

UNLV sideNorth Texas side
Market
+5.0
SP+
+13.0
FPI
+4.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+4.5
North Texas +5.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
North Texas to win · +160 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Pass
the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: North Texas to win · +160 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Opened +6.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward North Texas).

Full detail
The marketUNLV by 5the number to beat
SP+UNLV by 138 apart
FPIUNLV by 41.2 apart
SagarinUNLV by 32 apart
We settle onUNLV by 4.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+377
FPI+4.0+146
Sagarin+3.0+135
Market (12 books)+5.0+174
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.064.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +5.0-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+160+156+0.6%
TotalOver 57.0-110-135shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska Cornhuskers
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-28.5
-28.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 52.0: both totals models 7.6 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Bowling Green sideNebraska side
Market
-28.5
SP+
-26.5
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-33.5
We say
-28.0
Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +2200 at TOM
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. That's 7.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Bowling Green +28.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +30.0 or better.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNebraska by 28.5the number to beat
SP+Nebraska by 26.52 apart
FPINebraska by 24.53.8 apart
SagarinNebraska by 33.55 apart
We settle onNebraska by 2831% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.5-1919
FPI-24.5-1514
Sagarin-33.5-5315
Market (11 books)-28.5-2017
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.044.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +28.5-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+2200+2318priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State Owls
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-9.5
-9.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 50.5: both totals models 6.4 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Georgia State sideKennesaw State side
Market
-9.5
SP+
-18.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-9.5
Georgia State +9.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 6.4 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Georgia State to win · +272 at TOM. We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

Full detail
The marketKennesaw State by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Kennesaw State by 18.59.1 apart
FPIKennesaw State by 9.50.1 apart
SagarinKennesaw State by 8.51.1 apart
We settle onKennesaw State by 9.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.5-708
FPI-9.5-257
Sagarin-8.5-231
Market (10 books)-9.5-291
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.556.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +9.5-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML+272+259+1.0%
TotalOver 50.5-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+13.0
was +13.5
+12.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Georgia Tech +13.0: all 3 ratings 3.8 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Tennessee sideGeorgia Tech side
Market
+13.0
SP+
+9.0
FPI
+9.5
Sagarin
+9.0
We say
+12.0
Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Georgia Tech to win · +405 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Georgia Tech +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

A play at +14.0 or better.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTennessee by 13the number to beat
SP+Tennessee by 93.8 apart
FPITennessee by 9.53.6 apart
SagarinTennessee by 93.8 apart
We settle onTennessee by 1231% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.0+252
FPI+9.5+256
Sagarin+9.0+252
Market (11 books)+13.0+422
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.059.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +13.0-110-117+1.6%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+405+332priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +13.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+6.0
was +6.5
+5.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 59.0: both totals models 4.8 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Navy sideFlorida Atlantic side
Market
+6.0
SP+
+5.0
FPI
+8.5
Sagarin
+4.5
We say
+5.5
Florida Atlantic +6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32.
Pass
the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 62. That's 4.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Florida Atlantic to win · +180 at TOM. We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketNavy by 6the number to beat
SP+Navy by 50.9 apart
FPINavy by 8.52.3 apart
SagarinNavy by 4.51.7 apart
We settle onNavy by 5.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.0+166
FPI+8.5+231
Sagarin+4.5+154
Market (10 books)+6.0+192
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.063.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadFlorida Atlantic Owls +6.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineFlorida Atlantic Owls ML+180+177+0.4%
TotalOver 59.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Florida Atlantic Owls since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-33.0
was -31.5
-32.5
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 55.5: both totals models 6.1 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Louisiana Tech sideLSU side
Market
-33.0
SP+
-31.5
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-32.5
Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +3500
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 55.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.1 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Louisiana Tech +33.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -31.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward LSU).

Full detail
The marketLSU by 33the number to beat
SP+LSU by 31.51.4 apart
FPILSU by 321.3 apart
SagarinLSU by 39.56.6 apart
We settle onLSU by 32.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-31.5-4039
FPI-32.0-4094
Sagarin-39.5-14985
Market (10 books)-33.0-3579
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.549.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +33.0-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+3500+4568priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss Rebels
sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm
-47.5
was -46.5
-46.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Under 61.5: both totals models 4.4 points under. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

Charlotte sideOle Miss side
Market
-47.5
SP+
-43.0
FPI
-33.0
Sagarin
-50.5
We say
-46.0
Charlotte +47.5 · -110
Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 61.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 58. That's 4.4 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Charlotte +47.5 · -110. Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -46.5, now -47.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +48.0.

Full detail
The marketOle Miss by 47.5the number to beat
SP+Ole Miss by 434.7 apart
FPIOle Miss by 3314.7 apart
SagarinOle Miss by 50.53.2 apart
We settle onOle Miss by 4631% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-43.0-26145
FPI-33.0-4785
Sagarin-50.5-126783
Market (3 books)-47.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.557.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +47.5-110-121+2.4%
TotalUnder 61.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force Falcons
sat 12 sep, 9:00 pm
+5.5
was +6.5
+5.0
Nasty Candidate

Nasty Candidate. Over 47.5: both totals models 3.1 points over. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one. The ratings rebuild before kickoff, so this can still move.

North Dakota State sideAir Force side
Market
+5.5
SP+
-1.0
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+5.0
Air Force +5.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Air Force to win · +176
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.
Pass
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.1 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Air Force to win · +176. We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34.

Opened +6.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Air Force, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketNorth Dakota State by 5.5the number to beat
SP+Air Force by 16.3 apart
FPINorth Dakota State by 32.5 apart
SagarinNorth Dakota State by 32.4 apart
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-108
FPI+3.0+136
Sagarin+3.0+137
Market (9 books)+5.5+190
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.550.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +5.5-110-106-0.8%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+176+161+2.2%
TotalOver 47.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-9.0
was -8.5
-10.0
Lean East Carolina, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean East Carolina: market says East Carolina by 9, we say East Carolina by 10. That can change when the new numbers land.

App State sideEast Carolina side
Market
-9.0
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-11.5
We say
-10.0
East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
East Carolina to win · -350 at TOM
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: East Carolina -9.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward East Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -7.0 or better.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketEast Carolina by 9the number to beat
SP+East Carolina by 12.53.6 apart
FPIEast Carolina by 11.52.4 apart
We settle onEast Carolina by 1031% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-361
FPI-11.5-318
Sagarindoesn't rate App State
Market (12 books)-9.0-293
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.554.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadEast Carolina Pirates -9.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineEast Carolina Pirates ML-350-273-4.6%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M Aggies
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-14.5
-16.0
Lean Texas A&M, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas A&M: market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 16. That can change when the new numbers land.

Arizona State sideTexas A&M side
Market
-14.5
SP+
-18.0
FPI
-17.5
Sagarin
-18.0
We say
-16.0
Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Texas A&M to win · -650 at TOM
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Texas A&M -14.5 · -107 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

A play at -13.5 or better.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketTexas A&M by 14.5the number to beat
SP+Texas A&M by 183.7 apart
FPITexas A&M by 17.52.9 apart
SagarinTexas A&M by 183.7 apart
We settle onTexas A&M by 1645% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.0-676
FPI-17.5-619
Sagarin-18.0-674
Market (12 books)-14.5-479
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.553.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies -14.5-107-112+1.1%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML-650-534priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -14.5 here against -14.1 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-3.0
was -3.5
-2.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

South Florida sideArmy side
Market
-3.0
SP+
-1.5
FPI
+2.5
Sagarin
-2.0
We say
-2.5
South Florida +3.0 · +105 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
South Florida to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.
Lean
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 5.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: South Florida to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail
The marketArmy by 3the number to beat
SP+Army by 1.51.5 apart
FPISouth Florida by 2.55.5 apart
SagarinArmy by 20.8 apart
We settle onArmy by 2.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-116
FPI+2.5+128
Sagarin-2.0-124
Market (12 books)-3.0-159
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.554.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls +3.0+105-101+1.5%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML+150+129+3.8%
TotalOver 49.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcats
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-18.5
was -16.5
-17.5
Lean Washington State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Washington State: market says Kansas State by 18.5, we say Kansas State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Washington State sideKansas State side
Market
-18.5
SP+
-15.5
FPI
-11.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-17.5
Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Washington State to win · +718 at TOM
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Washington State +18.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -16.5, now -18.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Washington State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +19.5. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketKansas State by 18.5the number to beat
SP+Kansas State by 15.52.8 apart
FPIKansas State by 11.57.2 apart
SagarinKansas State by 190.4 apart
We settle onKansas State by 17.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.5-508
FPI-11.5-315
Sagarin-19.0-738
Market (5 books)-18.5-752
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +18.5-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+718+632priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech Hokies
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-18.0
was -14.5
-18.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Old Dominion sideVirginia Tech side
Market
-18.0
SP+
-17.5
FPI
-14.0
Sagarin
-20.0
We say
-18.0
Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Old Dominion to win · +652 at TOM
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Old Dominion +18.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

Full detail
The marketVirginia Tech by 18the number to beat
SP+Virginia Tech by 17.50.3 apart
FPIVirginia Tech by 144 apart
SagarinVirginia Tech by 201.8 apart
We settle onVirginia Tech by 1845% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-638
FPI-14.0-422
Sagarin-20.0-818
Market (12 books)-18.0-692
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOld Dominion Monarchs +18.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineOld Dominion Monarchs ML+652+650priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.3 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple Owls
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+23.5
+23.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Penn State sideTemple side
Market
+23.5
SP+
+23.0
FPI
+20.0
Sagarin
+29.5
We say
+23.5
Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Temple to win · +1248 at TOM
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 52. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Temple +23.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.
Full detail
The marketPenn State by 23.5the number to beat
SP+Penn State by 230.4 apart
FPIPenn State by 203.4 apart
SagarinPenn State by 29.56.2 apart
We settle onPenn State by 23.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1228
FPI+20.0+848
Sagarin+29.5+2989
Market (12 books)+23.5+1155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.556.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +23.5-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+1248+1271priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue Boilermakers
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
+4.5
was +5.5
+4.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Wake Forest sidePurdue side
Market
+4.5
SP+
+3.5
FPI
+3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
+4.0
Purdue +4.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Purdue to win · +164 at TOM
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.
Pass
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Purdue to win · +164 at TOM. We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Purdue).

Full detail
The marketWake Forest by 4.5the number to beat
SP+Wake Forest by 3.51.1 apart
FPIWake Forest by 31.3 apart
Sagarina pick'em4.6 apart
We settle onWake Forest by 431% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.5+140
FPI+3.0+138
Sagarinpk-101
Market (12 books)+4.5+177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +4.5-115-103-2.7%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+164+150+2.1%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia Bulldogs
sat 12 sep, 11:45 am
-40.0
was -35.5
-38.0
Lean Western Kentucky, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Western Kentucky: market says Georgia by 40, we say Georgia by 38. That can change when the new numbers land.

Western Kentucky sideGeorgia side
Market
-40.0
SP+
-36.0
FPI
-32.0
Sagarin
-42.0
We say
-38.0
Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Western Kentucky to win · +9000 at TOM
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Western Kentucky +40.0 · -105 at TOM. Covers 56 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -35.5, now -39.5. The market has moved 4.2 away from Western Kentucky, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketGeorgia by 40the number to beat
SP+Georgia by 364.1 apart
FPIGeorgia by 328.1 apart
SagarinGeorgia by 421.8 apart
We settle onGeorgia by 3845% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-36.0-7815
FPI-32.0-4161
Sagarin-42.0-21935
Market (9 books)-40.0-9082
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.555.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +40.0-105-125+4.3%
MoneylineWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers ML+9000+11399priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -39.7 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky Wildcats
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+9.5
was +8.5
+10.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Alabama sideKentucky side
Market
+9.5
SP+
+10.0
FPI
+12.5
Sagarin
+10.0
We say
+10.0
Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Alabama to win · -425 at TOM
We make it 73 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Alabama -9.5 · -115 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketAlabama by 9.5the number to beat
SP+Alabama by 100.7 apart
FPIAlabama by 12.53.1 apart
SagarinAlabama by 100.4 apart
We settle onAlabama by 1045% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+280
FPI+12.5+360
Sagarin+10.0+271
Market (12 books)+9.5+340
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.045.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -9.5-115-100-3.4%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-425-269priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
was -7.0
-7.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Arizona sideBYU side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-7.5
FPI
-8.0
Sagarin
-8.5
We say
-7.5
BYU -7.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
BYU to win · -300
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: BYU -7.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketBYU by 7.5the number to beat
SP+BYU by 7.50.1 apart
FPIBYU by 80.6 apart
SagarinBYU by 8.51.2 apart
We settle onBYU by 7.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.5-214
FPI-8.0-227
Sagarin-8.5-240
Market (12 books)-7.5-260
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBYU Cougars -7.5-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineBYU Cougars ML-300-217-6.6%
TotalOver 50.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

California Golden Bears at Syracuse Orange
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-3.0
was +2.5
-1.5
Lean California, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean California: market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 1.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

California sideSyracuse side
Market
-3.0
SP+
+2.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.5
We say
-1.5
California +3.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
California to win · +135
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 43. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Lean
the Under 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: California to win · +135. We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 43. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.

Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.5 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketSyracuse by 3the number to beat
SP+California by 2.55.7 apart
FPISyracuse by 0.52.5 apart
SagarinCalifornia by 2.55.5 apart
We settle onSyracuse by 1.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+131
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin+2.5+127
Market (12 books)-3.0-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.054.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +3.0-110-115+1.0%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML+135+114+4.2%
TotalUnder 55.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 1.4.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-6.0
was -7.5
-6.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Duke sideIllinois side
Market
-6.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-4.5
Sagarin
-11.0
We say
-6.5
Illinois -6.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Illinois to win · -235
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.
Pass
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Illinois -6.0 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketIllinois by 6the number to beat
SP+Illinois by 70.8 apart
FPIIllinois by 4.51.8 apart
SagarinIllinois by 115 apart
We settle onIllinois by 6.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-201
FPI-4.5-154
Sagarin-11.0-312
Market (12 books)-6.0-203
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.558.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -6.0-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-235-190-4.6%
TotalOver 53.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State Spartans
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-18.0
was -16.5
-18.5
Lean Michigan State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Michigan State: market says Michigan State by 18, we say Michigan State by 18.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Eastern Michigan sideMichigan State side
Market
-18.0
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-22.5
We say
-18.5
Michigan State -18.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Michigan State to win · -1045
We make it 88 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Michigan State -18.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -16.5, now -18.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at -16.0 or better. It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketMichigan State by 18the number to beat
SP+Michigan State by 20.52.7 apart
FPIMichigan State by 19.51.6 apart
SagarinMichigan State by 22.54.7 apart
We settle onMichigan State by 18.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-889
FPI-19.5-778
Sagarin-22.5-1138
Market (12 books)-18.0-671
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.051.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans -18.0-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML-1045-712priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Maryland Terrapins at UConn Huskies
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+13.5
+14.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Maryland sideUConn side
Market
+13.5
SP+
+15.0
FPI
+10.0
Sagarin
+16.5
We say
+14.0
Maryland -13.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Maryland to win · -550
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Maryland -13.5 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Full detail
The marketMaryland by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Maryland by 151.6 apart
FPIMaryland by 103.3 apart
SagarinMaryland by 16.53.2 apart
We settle onMaryland by 1445% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+465
FPI+10.0+274
Sagarin+16.5+557
Market (12 books)+13.5+416
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins -13.5-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML-550-422priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+1.0
was -2.5
-0.5
Lean Minnesota, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Minnesota: market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Mississippi State sideMinnesota side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-3.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
-3.5
We say
-0.5
Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Minnesota to win · -103 at TOM
We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.
Pass
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.9 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Minnesota +1.0 · -105 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +2.5.

Full detail
The marketMississippi State by 1the number to beat
SP+Minnesota by 3.54.6 apart
FPIMinnesota by 0.51.5 apart
SagarinMinnesota by 3.54.5 apart
We settle onMinnesota by 0.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-143
FPI-0.5-105
Sagarin-3.5-142
Market (12 books)+1.0+105
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.552.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +1.0-105-110+1.1%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML-103-104+0.3%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting Irish
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-44.5
-44.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Rice sideNotre Dame side
Market
-44.5
SP+
-44.0
FPI
-41.5
Sagarin
-53.0
We say
-44.5
Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Rice to win · +10000 at TOM
We make it 0 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.6 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Rice +44.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Full detail
The marketNotre Dame by 44.5the number to beat
SP+Notre Dame by 440.5 apart
FPINotre Dame by 41.53 apart
SagarinNotre Dame by 538.3 apart
We settle onNotre Dame by 44.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-44.0-32776
FPI-41.5-20558
Sagarin-53.0-198394
Market (5 books)-44.5-10080
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +44.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineRice Owls ML+10000+34991priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh Panthers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-7.5
was -8.5
-6.5
Lean UCF, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean UCF: market says Pittsburgh by 7.5, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UCF sidePittsburgh side
Market
-7.5
SP+
-6.5
FPI
-4.0
We say
-6.5
UCF +7.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
UCF to win · +250
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.
Lean
the Under 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 58. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: UCF to win · +250. We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.

Opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +8.5 or better.

Full detail
The marketPittsburgh by 7.5the number to beat
SP+Pittsburgh by 6.50.8 apart
FPIPittsburgh by 43.6 apart
We settle onPittsburgh by 6.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-195
FPI-4.0-149
Sagarindoesn't rate UCF
Market (12 books)-7.5-260
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.053.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +7.5-110-114+0.8%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+250+192+5.6%
TotalUnder 57.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.7.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State Bobcats
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
+1.0
was +1.5
-0.5
Lean Texas State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Texas State: market says UTSA by 1, we say Texas State by 0.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

UTSA sideTexas State side
Market
+1.0
SP+
-1.0
FPI
-3.0
Sagarin
pk
We say
-0.5
Texas State +1.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texas State to win · -108
We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.
Pass
the Over 64.5 · -110
SP+ projects 78 and Massey projects 65. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Texas State +1.0 · -110. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Texas State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +2.5 or better.

Full detail
The marketUTSA by 1the number to beat
SP+Texas State by 12.2 apart
FPITexas State by 34.2 apart
Sagarina pick'em1.1 apart
We settle onTexas State by 0.560% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-113
FPI-3.0-138
Sagarinpk-101
Market (12 books)+1.0+104
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.571.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas State Bobcats +1.0-110-109-0.3%
MoneylineTexas State Bobcats ML-108-103-1.1%
TotalOver 64.5-110-143shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-10.5
was -7.5
-10.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

UL Monroe sideUAB side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-13.5
FPI
-7.0
We say
-10.5
UL Monroe +10.5 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
UL Monroe to win · +325
We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.9 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: UL Monroe +10.5 · -110. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
The marketUAB by 10.5the number to beat
SP+UAB by 13.53.1 apart
FPIUAB by 73.5 apart
We settle onUAB by 10.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-403
FPI-7.0-201
Sagarindoesn't rate UL Monroe
Market (12 books)-10.5-340
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.058.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUL Monroe Warhawks +10.5-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineUL Monroe Warhawks ML+325+287priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskies
sat 12 sep, 2:30 pm
-27.0
was -24.5
-26.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Utah State sideWashington side
Market
-27.0
SP+
-26.0
FPI
-19.0
Sagarin
-35.0
We say
-26.5
Utah State +27.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +1548 at TOM
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. That's 2.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Utah State +27.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -24.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Washington).

Full detail
The marketWashington by 27the number to beat
SP+Washington by 261.1 apart
FPIWashington by 198.2 apart
SagarinWashington by 357.8 apart
We settle onWashington by 26.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.0-1770
FPI-19.0-725
Sagarin-35.0-6519
Market (5 books)-27.0-1604
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.554.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +27.0-110-108-0.4%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+1548+1960priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt Commodores
sat 12 sep, 3:15 pm
-20.5
was -21.5
-22.0
Lean Vanderbilt, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Vanderbilt: market says Vanderbilt by 20.5, we say Vanderbilt by 22. That can change when the new numbers land.

Delaware sideVanderbilt side
Market
-20.5
SP+
-25.0
FPI
-15.5
Sagarin
-28.5
We say
-22.0
Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Vanderbilt to win · -1544 at TOM
We make it 91 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Vanderbilt -20.5 · -113 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -21.5, now -21.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -19.0. It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketVanderbilt by 20.5the number to beat
SP+Vanderbilt by 254.4 apart
FPIVanderbilt by 15.54.8 apart
SagarinVanderbilt by 28.58.1 apart
We settle onVanderbilt by 2231% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-1550
FPI-15.5-509
Sagarin-28.5-2554
Market (12 books)-20.5-864
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.560.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores -20.5-113-109-0.8%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML-1544-1054priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-8.5
was -7.5
-8.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Memphis sideBoise State side
Market
-8.5
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.0
We say
-8.0
Memphis +8.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Memphis to win · +260 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.
Lean
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.9 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Memphis to win · +260 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. That's value. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27.

Opened -7.5, now -8.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Boise State).

Full detail
The marketBoise State by 8.5the number to beat
SP+Boise State by 71.5 apart
FPIBoise State by 62.3 apart
SagarinBoise State by 90.3 apart
We settle onBoise State by 845% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-201
FPI-6.0-186
Sagarin-9.0-242
Market (12 books)-8.5-278
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.558.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMemphis Tigers +8.5-110-110+0.0%
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+260+219+3.6%
TotalOver 55.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-10.5
-6.5
Lean Buffalo, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Buffalo: market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 6.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Buffalo sideFlorida International side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-0.5
FPI
-2.0
We say
-6.5
Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.
Discounted
Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 35 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Discounted
the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Buffalo +10.5 · -112 at TOM. Covers 61 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
The marketFlorida International by 10.5the number to beat
SP+Florida International by 0.510.1 apart
FPIFlorida International by 28.4 apart
We settle onFlorida International by 6.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-104
FPI-2.0-124
Sagarindoesn't rate Florida International
Market (12 books)-10.5-334
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.048.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.5-112-157+8.2%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+310+189priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats
sat 12 sep, 5:00 pm
-2.5
was -1.5
-2.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Jacksonville State sideOhio side
Market
-2.5
SP+
+2.0
FPI
-8.5
Sagarin
-1.5
We say
-2.0
Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Jacksonville State to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.
Pass
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Jacksonville State +2.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Ohio).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

Full detail
The marketOhio by 2.5the number to beat
SP+Jacksonville State by 24.3 apart
FPIOhio by 8.55.8 apart
SagarinOhio by 1.51.1 apart
We settle onOhio by 245% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.0+120
FPI-8.5-231
Sagarin-1.5-115
Market (12 books)-2.5-114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.549.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML+105+122-3.8%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.0 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-15.0
was -17.5
-14.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Middle Tennessee sideMarshall side
Market
-15.0
SP+
-20.5
FPI
-9.5
Sagarin
-14.0
We say
-14.5
Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Middle Tennessee to win · +500 at TOM
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Middle Tennessee +15.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened -17.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.7 consensus.

Full detail
The marketMarshall by 15the number to beat
SP+Marshall by 20.55.5 apart
FPIMarshall by 9.55.5 apart
SagarinMarshall by 141.1 apart
We settle onMarshall by 14.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-889
FPI-9.5-260
Sagarin-14.0-415
Market (10 books)-15.0-523
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.560.8
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +15.0-115-111-0.9%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+500+444priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -15.0 here against -14.7 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State Bearkats
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
+14.0
was +15.5
+13.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Tulsa sideSam Houston side
Market
+14.0
SP+
+17.5
FPI
+7.5
We say
+13.5
Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Sam Houston to win · +450 at TOM
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Sam Houston +14.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Opened +15.5, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Sam Houston).

Full detail
The marketTulsa by 14the number to beat
SP+Tulsa by 17.53.7 apart
FPITulsa by 7.56.7 apart
We settle onTulsa by 13.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.5+638
FPI+7.5+207
Sagarindoesn't rate Sam Houston
Market (11 books)+14.0+471
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.054.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +14.0-115-112-0.6%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+450+390priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave
sat 12 sep, 6:00 pm
-10.5
was -11.5
-11.0
Lean Tulane, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Tulane: market says Tulane by 10.5, we say Tulane by 11. That can change when the new numbers land.

South Alabama sideTulane side
Market
-10.5
SP+
-12.5
FPI
-15.0
Sagarin
-12.0
We say
-11.0
Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Tulane to win · -450 at TOM
We make it 76 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.8 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Tulane -10.5 · -110 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Opened -11.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Tulane, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -8.5.

Full detail
The marketTulane by 10.5the number to beat
SP+Tulane by 12.52 apart
FPITulane by 154.5 apart
SagarinTulane by 121.6 apart
We settle onTulane by 1131% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.5-357
FPI-15.0-469
Sagarin-12.0-341
Market (11 books)-10.5-342
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTulane Green Wave -10.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineTulane Green Wave ML-450-309priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins
sat 12 sep, 6:15 pm
-11.0
was -10.5
-8.5
Lean San Diego State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean San Diego State: market says UCLA by 11, we say UCLA by 8.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

San Diego State sideUCLA side
Market
-11.0
SP+
-7.0
FPI
-1.0
Sagarin
-17.0
We say
-8.5
San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
Lean
San Diego State to win · +343 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: San Diego State +11.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 57 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketUCLA by 11the number to beat
SP+UCLA by 74.1 apart
FPIUCLA by 19.8 apart
SagarinUCLA by 176.1 apart
We settle onUCLA by 8.560% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.0-199
FPI-1.0-113
Sagarin-17.0-593
Market (11 books)-11.0-368
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.050.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +11.0-110-134+4.8%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+343+236priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50.

TOM: spread -11.0 here against -11.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-21.0
was -23.5
-23.5
Lean Clemson, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Clemson: market says Clemson by 21, we say Clemson by 23.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Georgia Southern sideClemson side
Market
-21.0
SP+
-26.0
FPI
-24.5
Sagarin
-30.5
We say
-23.5
Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Clemson to win · -1695 at TOM
We make it 93 in 100 to win, the price says 94, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 56.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Clemson -21.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 55 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -23.5, now -21.5. The market has moved 2.1 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -20.5.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -21.4 consensus.

Full detail
The marketClemson by 21the number to beat
SP+Clemson by 265.1 apart
FPIClemson by 24.53.3 apart
SagarinClemson by 30.59.7 apart
We settle onClemson by 23.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-26.0-1818
FPI-24.5-1437
Sagarin-30.5-3480
Market (10 books)-21.0-913
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.553.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers -21.0-110-120+2.2%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-1695-1259priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -21.4 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa Hawkeyes
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-13.5
was -14.0
-15.0
Lean Iowa, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Iowa: market says Iowa by 13.5, we say Iowa by 15. That can change when the new numbers land.

Iowa State sideIowa side
Market
-13.5
SP+
-17.0
FPI
-13.5
Sagarin
-19.0
We say
-15.0
Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Iowa to win · -697 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 45. That's 2.2 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Iowa -13.5 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at -12.5 or better.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

Full detail
The marketIowa by 13.5the number to beat
SP+Iowa by 173.7 apart
FPIIowa by 13.50.2 apart
SagarinIowa by 195.6 apart
We settle onIowa by 1545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-602
FPI-13.5-408
Sagarin-19.0-750
Market (11 books)-13.5-494
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -13.5-113-113+0.1%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-697-478priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 41.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas Longhorns
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
-1.5
pk
Lean Ohio State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Ohio State: market says Texas by 1.5, we say a pick'em. That can change when the new numbers land.

Ohio State sideTexas side
Market
-1.5
SP+
+7.5
FPI
-0.5
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
pk
Ohio State +1.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Ohio State to win · -103
We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.
Pass
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.3 points over the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Ohio State +1.5 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +3.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketTexas by 1.5the number to beat
SP+Ohio State by 7.59.1 apart
FPITexas by 0.50.9 apart
SagarinOhio State by 23.5 apart
We settle ona pick'em45% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+216
FPI-0.5-104
Sagarin+2.0+124
Market (11 books)-1.5-108
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.550.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes +1.5-110-112+0.5%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML-103-102-0.2%
TotalOver 47.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State Beavers
sat 12 sep, 6:30 pm
+25.0
was +27.5
+25.5
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Texas Tech sideOregon State side
Market
+25.0
SP+
+25.0
FPI
+26.0
Sagarin
+33.5
We say
+25.5
Texas Tech -25.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Texas Tech to win · -3549
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 97, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Texas Tech -25.0 · -110. Covers 50 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened +27.5, now +25.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Oregon State).

Full detail
The marketTexas Tech by 25the number to beat
SP+Texas Tech by 250 apart
FPITexas Tech by 260.7 apart
SagarinTexas Tech by 33.58.3 apart
We settle onTexas Tech by 25.531% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++25.0+1612
FPI+26.0+1774
Sagarin+33.5+5315
Market (11 books)+25.0+1345
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTexas Tech Red Raiders -25.0-110+101-2.6%
MoneylineTexas Tech Red Raiders ML-3549-1659priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn Tigers
sat 12 sep, 6:45 pm
-30.0
was -29.5
-32.0
Lean Auburn, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Auburn: market says Auburn by 30, we say Auburn by 32. That can change when the new numbers land.

Southern Miss sideAuburn side
Market
-30.0
SP+
-34.5
FPI
-19.5
Sagarin
-39.5
We say
-32.0
Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Auburn to win · -5000 at TOM
We make it 98 in 100 to win, the price says 98, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 47. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Auburn -30.0 · -110 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

A play at -29.0 or better.

Full detail
The marketAuburn by 30the number to beat
SP+Auburn by 34.54.4 apart
FPIAuburn by 19.510.7 apart
SagarinAuburn by 39.59.4 apart
We settle onAuburn by 3245% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.5-6135
FPI-19.5-766
Sagarin-39.5-14265
Market (10 books)-30.0-1767
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.048.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadAuburn Tigers -30.0-110-117+1.6%
MoneylineAuburn Tigers ML-5000-4214priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State Bulldogs
sat 12 sep, 9:30 pm
-18.5
-17.5
Lean Sacramento State, waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict. Right now the ratings lean Sacramento State: market says Fresno State by 18.5, we say Fresno State by 17.5. That can change when the new numbers land.

Sacramento State sideFresno State side
Market
-18.5
SP+
-24.0
FPI
-16.0
Sagarin
-16.0
We say
-17.5
Sacramento State +18.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +679
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 48.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Sacramento State +18.5 · -110. Covers 54 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

A play at +19.5 or better.

Full detail
The marketFresno State by 18.5the number to beat
SP+Fresno State by 245.6 apart
FPIFresno State by 162.6 apart
SagarinFresno State by 162.4 apart
We settle onFresno State by 17.545% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1414
FPI-16.0-520
Sagarin-16.0-534
Market (10 books)-18.5-707
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +18.5-110-117+1.4%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+679+621priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojans
sat 12 sep, 10:00 pm
-31.0
was -28.5
-30.0
Waiting

Waiting for the ratings to rebuild before this gets a verdict.

Louisiana sideUSC side
Market
-31.0
SP+
-30.5
FPI
-28.0
We say
-30.0
Louisiana +31.0 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana to win · +3000
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 60.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Not rated until 150 college games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Louisiana +31.0 · -110. Covers 53 in 100 by our number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward USC).

Full detail
The marketUSC by 31the number to beat
SP+USC by 30.50.3 apart
FPIUSC by 282.8 apart
We settle onUSC by 3045% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-30.5-3379
FPI-28.0-2342
Sagarindoesn't rate Louisiana
Market (8 books)-31.0-3069
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.061.4
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0-110-115+1.0%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML+3000+3178priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 60.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 0.5.

This game is after the ratings rebuild, and it's too far out to read differences between books as stale numbers. This far ahead the books simply haven't converged yet. It'll be priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar Heels
sat 12 sep, 11:00 am
-36.0
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (2 books)-36.0-4525
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5

East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals
sat 12 sep, 1:00 pm
-16.0
was -18.5
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (3 books)-16.0-560
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.

Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow Warriors
sat 12 sep, 11:00 pm
-10.0
No rating

No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+not an FBS matchup
FPInot an FBS matchup
Sagarinnot an FBS matchup
Market (10 books)-10.0-323
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.5

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

Sun Sep 13

12 gamesBest: Lean Titans, Jets at Titans
GameMarketOursLean
New York Jets at Tennessee Titans
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
pk
was -1.0
-1.5
Lean Titans

Lean Titans. Market says a pick'em, we say Titans by 1.5.

Jets sideTitans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.5
We say
-1.5
Titans pk · -122 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Titans to win · -129 at TOM
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 50.
Pass
the Over 39.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 6.6 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Titans pk · -122 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +1.0 or better.

Also out: Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Tanoh Kpassagnon (DE, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans), Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Tyler Baron (DE, Jets).

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTitans by 32.9 apart
SagarinTitans by 4.54.4 apart
We settle onTitans by 1.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.5-166
Market (12 books)pk-115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.045.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans pk-122-119-0.7%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-129-119-2.1%
TotalOver 39.0-110-132shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against -1.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-4.0
-4.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Bengals by 4, we say Bengals by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Buccaneers sideBengals side
Market
-4.0
nfelo
-2.5
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-4.0
Buccaneers +4.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.
Pass
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Buccaneers to win · +173 at TOM. We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers), Mohamed Kamara (LB, Buccaneers).

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Full detail
The marketBengals by 4the number to beat
nfeloBengals by 2.51.3 apart
SagarinBengals by 40.2 apart
We settle onBengals by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-136
Sagarin-4.0-163
Market (12 books)-4.0-188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.3
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+173+157+2.4%
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0-113-105-1.9%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-7.0
-7.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Lions by 7, we say Lions by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Saints sideLions side
Market
-7.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-7.5
We say
-7.0
Saints +7.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Saints to win · +251 at TOM
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.
Pass
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. That's 4.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Saints to win · +251 at TOM. We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions), Lorenzo Styles Jr. (S, Saints), Jaylan Ford (LB, Saints). and 1 more

Full detail
The marketLions by 7the number to beat
nfeloLions by 60.8 apart
SagarinLions by 7.50.7 apart
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-206
Sagarin-7.5-246
Market (12 books)-7.0-273
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.045.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML+251+226+2.3%
SpreadNew Orleans Saints +7.0-116-107-1.9%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
+3.5
+3.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Ravens by 3.5, we say Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Ravens sideColts side
Market
+3.5
nfelo
+0.5
Sagarin
+3.0
We say
+3.0
Colts +3.5 · -120 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Colts to win · +150 at TOM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.
Pass
the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Colts to win · +150 at TOM. We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Also out: Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Bilhal Kone (CB, Ravens), Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Danny Pinter (C, Ravens).

Full detail
The marketRavens by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRavens by 0.52.8 apart
SagarinRavens by 30.3 apart
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+108
Sagarin+3.0+145
Market (12 books)+3.5+161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.549.7
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+150+144+1.0%
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.5-120-107-2.8%
TotalOver 47.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
+2.5
+2.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Bears by 2.5, we say Bears by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bears sidePanthers side
Market
+2.5
nfelo
+1.0
Sagarin
+2.0
We say
+2.5
Panthers +2.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Panthers to win · +130 at TOM
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.
Pass
the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.2 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Panthers to win · +130 at TOM. We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Also out: Brady Christensen (G, Panthers), Bam Martin-Scott (LB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Coby Bryant (S, Bears).

Full detail
The marketBears by 2.5the number to beat
nfeloBears by 11.7 apart
SagarinBears by 20.4 apart
We settle onBears by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+110
Sagarin+2.0+127
Market (12 books)+2.5+144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.544.2
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+130+130+0.1%
SpreadCarolina Panthers +2.5+100+105-1.1%
TotalUnder 47.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers
sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL
-10.0
-9.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Chargers by 10, we say Chargers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Cardinals sideChargers side
Market
-10.0
nfelo
-4.0
Sagarin
-14.0
We say
-9.5
Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Pass
Cardinals to win · +400 at TOM
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. That's 3.0 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Cardinals +10.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 54 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

A play at +11.0 or better.

Also out: Denzel Perryman (LB, Chargers), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Scott Matlock (FB, Chargers), Zachary Carter (DT, Cardinals), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals). and 1 more

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.

Full detail
The marketChargers by 10the number to beat
nfeloChargers by 45.9 apart
SagarinChargers by 144 apart
We settle onChargers by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-161
Sagarin-14.0-540
Market (12 books)-10.0-419
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.044.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadArizona Cardinals +10.0-115-115+0.0%
MoneylineArizona Cardinals ML+400+314priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-3.0
-3.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Steelers by 3, we say Steelers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Falcons sideSteelers side
Market
-3.0
nfelo
-3.0
Sagarin
-4.0
We say
-3.0
Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Steelers to win · -180 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.
Pass
the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Steelers -3.0 · -125 at TOM. Covers 51 in 100 by our number. Needs 56 to break even. Not enough.

QB questionable: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), Keshawn Banks (DE, Falcons), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons), Anterio Thompson (DT, Falcons).

Full detail
The marketSteelers by 3the number to beat
nfeloSteelers by 30.1 apart
SagarinSteelers by 41.1 apart
We settle onSteelers by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-140
Sagarin-4.0-160
Market (12 books)-3.0-163
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.043.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers -3.0-125-103-4.7%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML-180-143-5.4%
TotalOver 42.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
pk
pk
Pass

Pass. Market says a pick'em, we say a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Bills sideTexans side
Market
pk
nfelo
-0.5
Sagarin
pk
We say
pk
Texans pk · -106 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Texans to win · -107 at TOM
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 46.
Pass
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48. That's 3.7 points over the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Texans pk · -106 at TOM. Covers 50 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Zane Durant (DT, Bills).

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketa pick'emthe number to beat
nfeloTexans by 0.50.5 apart
Sagarina pick'em0 apart
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-0.5-106
Sagarinpk+100
Market (12 books)pk+100
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.047.9
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans pk-106-101-1.2%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML-107-101-1.4%
TotalOver 44.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread pk here against +0.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL
-1.0
-1.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Vikings by 1, we say Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Packers sideVikings side
Market
-1.0
nfelo
-4.5
Sagarin
+0.5
We say
-1.0
Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Vikings to win · -122 at TOM
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 49.
Pass
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.3 points under the market. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
Lean, not rated
If you're betting it anyway: Vikings -1.0 · -115 at TOM. Covers 52 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Marcus Allen (CB, Vikings), Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Tyler Batty (LB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Collin Oliver (DE, Packers). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketVikings by 1the number to beat
nfeloVikings by 4.53.3 apart
SagarinPackers by 0.51.5 apart
We settle onVikings by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-165
Sagarin+0.5+106
Market (12 books)-1.0-112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.6
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Vikings -1.0-115-109-1.4%
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML-122-115-1.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL
-3.5
-3.5
Pass

Pass. Market says Raiders by 3.5, we say Raiders by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Dolphins sideRaiders side
Market
-3.5
nfelo
-1.5
Sagarin
-5.5
We say
-3.5
Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Raiders to win · -185 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Pass
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Raiders -3.5 · -105 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Keyron Crawford (DE, Raiders), Chigozie Anusiem (CB, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketRaiders by 3.5the number to beat
nfeloRaiders by 1.51.9 apart
SagarinRaiders by 5.52.2 apart
We settle onRaiders by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.5-120
Sagarin-5.5-194
Market (12 books)-3.5-165
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.1
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders -3.5-105+103-1.9%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML-185-150-4.9%
TotalOver 40.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
sun 13 sep, 3:25 pm · NFL
-5.0
-5.0
Pass

Pass. Market says Eagles by 5, we say Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

Commanders sideEagles side
Market
-5.0
nfelo
-4.0
Sagarin
-6.5
We say
-5.0
Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Eagles to win · -234 at TOM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.
Pass
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Eagles -5.0 · -112 at TOM. Covers 49 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Also out: Andre' Sam (S, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Curtis Jacobs (LB, Commanders), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders), Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders). and 2 more

Full detail
The marketEagles by 5the number to beat
nfeloEagles by 41 apart
SagarinEagles by 6.51.3 apart
We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.0-158
Sagarin-6.5-208
Market (12 books)-5.0-205
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.545.5
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -5.0-112+102-3.4%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-234-179-5.9%
TotalOver 44.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville Jaguars
sun 13 sep, 12:00 pm · NFL
-8.0
-8.0
Held, QB out

Held. Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.

Browns sideJaguars side
Market
-8.0
nfelo
-6.0
Sagarin
-9.5
We say
-8.0
Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Pass
Browns to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Pass
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; no lean. Not rated until 150 nfl games are graded (0 so far).
No lean
If you're betting it anyway: Browns +8.0 · -113 at TOM. Covers 53 in 100 by our number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. A coin flip, but it's the better side of the coin.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Elijah Chatman (DT, Browns), Travis Bell (DT, Browns).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

Full detail
The marketJaguars by 8the number to beat
nfeloJaguars by 62.1 apart
SagarinJaguars by 9.51.6 apart
We settle onJaguars by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-197
Sagarin-9.5-310
Market (12 books)-8.0-328
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.542.0
MarketPlayPriceOur numberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +8.0-113-112-0.2%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+310+252priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.8 consensus.

QB out: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The totals figure is shown for information only. It comes from SP+ and Massey's offense and defense ratings, ignores pace and weather, and hasn't been validated against results yet. It is not allowed to recommend anything until the ledger says it deserves to.

How the last picks finished

Graded off final scores, one unit a play.

Saturday September 5

3-3 · -0.21 units
LostWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers MLWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers at Nevada Wolf Pack14-49-1.00
WonDuke Blue Devils -7.5Tulane Green Wave at Duke Blue Devils3-17+0.93
LostAuburn Tigers -7.5Baylor Bears at Auburn Tigers16-17-1.00
WonTulsa Golden Hurricane +13.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at Tulsa Golden Hurricane10-24+0.95
LostCalifornia Golden Bears MLUCLA Bruins at California Golden Bears45-24-1.00
WonNew Mexico Lobos -10.5Central Michigan Chippewas at New Mexico Lobos7-38+0.91

The group

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Scoreboard

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How it's going

3-3Record
-0.2Units
-3.5%ROI
8Open

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56 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 1 game already kicked off and is left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Tomorrow, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 56 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:00 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 73 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 5 were worth a second look. nothing cleared the bar, which happens.

Since 5:18 pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 2.8Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herdtoward Middle Tennessee Blue Raidersagainst the public
  • → 2.5Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinalstoward Stony Brook Seawolvesagainst the public
  • → 2.4Utah State Aggies at Washington Huskiestoward Washington Huskieswith the public
  • → 2.3Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC Trojanstoward USC Trojanswith the public
  • → 2.0Washington State Cougars at Kansas State Wildcatstoward Kansas State Wildcatswith the public
  • → 1.6Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 0 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 13218 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 0.26 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
DraftKings670.53
BetOnline.ag670.52
LowVig.ag640.48
FanDuel610.46
BetMGM610.41
TOM510.30
BetRivers630.19
MyBookie.ag540.15
BetUS630.11
Bovada610.07
Fanatics530.04
Pinnacle600.03
Caesars610.01

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated today
  • nfelo updated today
Built 5:20 PM. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Odds API calls left this month: 19966.
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