Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 4:16 pm · 3 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

A LITTLE NASTYHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML
-125as called
A LITTLE NASTYWisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0
-107as called
A LITTLE NASTYNebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans
Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5
-110as called

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech -3-108 at BetMGM+4.7%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 9:19am at -3 -108. Now Georgia Tech -3 -108. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts-5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -4.5Texas A&M at LSU▼Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Texas A&M +8.5 · -110 at Fanatics, a point worse, 2 cents worse than the +9.5 -108 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 1.5 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGM, a point better, 5 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck

Buck's Take

Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Georgia Tech -3, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.

Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Sacramento State +4.5. Every system has Sacramento State by 1; the market has Massachusetts by 4.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.5.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Tulsa +7 (Tulsa at Arkansas) at 3.1% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49, down 2.5 since the open.

Since the last build, Massachusetts at Sacramento State climbed to Damn Near Nasty.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Georgia Tech at Stanford, Georgia Tech -3. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.

Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech to win-144 at FanDuel+5.2%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.

Damn Near Nasty

1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Massachusetts at Sacramento State▲Sacramento State +4.5should be Sacramento State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGMNeeds a better numberSat 8:00pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM or TOM +4.5 at -108 (5.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49. The total has come down 2.5 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

Louisiana at CharlotteMoved our way · 2.5 ptsOver 49should be 51.3 · getting 2.3 ptsSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 49¢ (3.7%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -104 (3.5%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (3.2%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -120 (2.4%) · TOM 49 at -115 (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); -120 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. The price wins.
Oregon at USC▲Moved our way · 1 ptOver 60.5should be 61.7 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): BetMGM 60.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings or TOM 60.5 at -115 (-0.4%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-0.5%) · Caesars 60.5 at -117 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Tulsa at ArkansasTulsa +7should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 ptSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.8%) · TOM +7 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.8%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.8%).Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -122 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.
Patriots at JaguarsPatriots +3should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.
Minnesota at Washington▲Minnesota +10.5should be Minnesota +10 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Minnesota): FanDuel +10.5 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM +10.5 at -108 (0.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +10.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%).
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings -7.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Troy at Utah StateTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 ptSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Kansas State at CincinnatiOver 55should be 56.1 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.4%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars 55.5 at -110 (-0.8%).Points or price: 55 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.
James Madison at Old Dominion▲Under 44weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the totalSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -102 (-1.8%) · TOM 44 at -110 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -118 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 50¢ (-3.1%).Points or price: 44 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 43.5 (the games that land on 44); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.

Moved closer since the 1:22pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:22pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • Massachusetts at Sacramento State 8:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
  • Oregon at USC 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -108.
  • Minnesota at Washington 10:00pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -112 to -105.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Mon 3:32pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:17am✓MasseySat 6:16am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 38 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPISat 6:16am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 11:55am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

29 gamesBest: Georgia Tech -3.0, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford
CFB 9:30pm
Georgia Tech -3Moved our way · 3 pts
should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -108 at BetMGM · was -5.5
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Georgia Tech -3.0 at -108 at BetMGM. Market says Georgia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →
Market
Georgia Tech by 3TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Georgia Tech by 9.56.6 pts our side
FPI
Georgia Tech by 84.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Georgia Tech by 51.9 pts our side
Massey
Georgia Tech by 8.55.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia Tech by 4.51.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Georgia Tech, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 4.5opened Georgia Tech by 5now Georgia Tech by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Georgia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.61.9 pts under the market
Massey
53.33.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.40.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 48.5now 49.5FriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
TOM+3 -11249.5 -108+127-152
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢48.5 -116 52¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
Pinnacle+3 -10948.5 -112+131-148
All 20 books
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
TOM+3 -11249.5 -108+127-152
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢48.5 -116 52¢+129 42¢-155 59¢
Bally Bet+3 -11048.5 -110+133-162
BetAnything+3 -11049 -110+130-150
BetMGM+3 -11048.5 -112+125-150
BetOnline.ag+3 -11249.5 -108+132-152
betPARX+3 -11048.5 -110+133-162
BetRivers+3 -11248.5 -112+132-165
BetUS+3 -11049.5 -110+129-150
Bovada+3 -11549 -105+130-150
Caesars+3 -10648.5 -112+133-157
Courtside—65.5 -688+133-152
DraftKings+3 -11048.5 -115+130-155
FanDuel+2.5 +10248.5 -106+120-144
Fliff+2.5 +10048.5 -120+125-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10548.5 -110+130-150
LowVig.ag+3 -10849.5 -106+132-152
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048.5 -110+129-158
Pinnacle+3 -10948.5 -112+131-148
theScore Bet+3.5 -12548.5 -105+130-150

Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -3.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): BetMGM or TOM -3 at -108 (4.7%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -124 (4.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -110 (4.2%) · Caesars -3 at -114 (3.3%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 55¢ (2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Georgia Tech to win · -144 at FanDuel
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 59. That's value. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -144 (5.2%) · BetMGM -150 (4.2%) · TOM -152 (3.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -155 (3.5%) · Caesars -157 (3.1%).
A Little Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 49.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 49¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -105 (-3.0%) · Caesars 48.5 at -108 (-3.7%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -114 (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Tech by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+318
FPI+8.0+284
Sagarin+5.0+185
Massey+8.5+302
Market (18 books)+3.0+133
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML-144-180+5.2%
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0-108-130+4.7%
TotalUnder 49.5-112-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.7 consensus.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada
CFB 9:30pm
Nevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 1.5 pts
Bet it · now Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGM
Nasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -110 at BetMGM, a point better, 5 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Air Force by 6TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 4.51.4 pts our side
FPI
Air Force by 0.55.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Nevada by 1.57.3 pts our side
Massey
Air Force by 2.53.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Air Force by 4.51.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Air Force by 4.5opened Air Force by 4.5now Air Force by 6SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Nevada's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.22.3 pts under the market
Massey
49.60.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
47.13.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.1opened 48.9now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.6 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+6 -11550.5 -110+180-230
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢50.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -10350 -114+194-226
All 20 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+6 -11550.5 -110+180-230
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢50.5 -107 50¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Bally Bet+6 -10950.5 -108+205-265
BetAnything+6 -11050.5 -110+195-235
BetMGM+6 -11050.5 -110+190-235
BetOnline.ag+6 -11550.5 -110+192-230
betPARX+6 -10950.5 -108+205-265
BetRivers+6 -10950.5 -108+205-265
BetUS+5.5 -11050.5 -110+195-230
Bovada+5.5 -10550.5 -110+190-230
Caesars+5.5 -10750.5 -110+190-230
Courtside—66.5 -1191+199-232
DraftKings+5.5 -10850.5 -110+195-238
FanDuel+5.5 -10650.5 -112+188-230
Fliff+5.5 -11050.5 -115+190-245
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10550.5 -110+190-250
LowVig.ag+6 -11150.5 -108+192-230
MyBookie.ag+6 -11050.5 -110+192-242
Pinnacle+5.5 -10350 -114+194-226
theScore Bet+5.5 -10551.5 +100+190-225

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +6.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Nevada): BetMGM +6 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -106 (-0.1%) · Caesars or Kalshi +5.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +5.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · TOM +6 at -115 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Nevada to win · +195 at DraftKings
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Nevada to win): DraftKings +195 (1.5%) · Caesars or BetMGM +190 (0.9%) · FanDuel +188 (0.7%) · Kalshi or TOM +181 (-0.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (0.3%) · Caesars 50.5 at -109 (0.1%) · DraftKings or TOM 50.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.5+180
FPI+0.5-100
Sagarin-1.5-109
Massey+2.5+121
Market (18 books)+6.0+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.547.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNevada Wolf Pack ML+195+182+1.5%
SpreadNevada Wolf Pack +6.0-110-111+0.3%
TotalUnder 50.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU
CFB 6:30pm
Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM
Bet it · now Texas A&M +8.5 · -110 at Fanatics
▼Nasty Pick · called at +9.5 -108Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Bet it. Texas A&M +8.5 · -110 at Fanatics, a point worse, 2 cents worse than the +9.5 -108 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.5.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 8TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
LSU by 4
FPI
LSU by 4.5
Sagarin
LSU by 5.5
Massey
LSU by 1
Nasty Number
LSU by 7.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 7.5opened LSU by 8.5now LSU by 8SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 8.5 to LSU by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.94.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.31.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 53.5now 52SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-8 -11052 -110-345+270
Kalshi-8.5 -107 50¢52.5 -107 50¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Pinnacle-8.5 -10752 -111-349+286
All 21 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-8 -11052 -110-345+270
Kalshi-8.5 -107 50¢52.5 -107 50¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Bally Bet-8.5 -10952.5 -108-345+260
BetAnything-8.5 -11052 -110-350+280
BetMGM-8 -11052.5 -105-325+270
BetOnline.ag-8 -11052 -110-350+280
betPARX-8.5 -10952.5 -108-345+260
BetRivers-8.5 -11052.5 -109-345+255
BetUS-8.5 -11052 -110-350+280
Bovada-8.5 -11052 -115-360+280
Caesars-8.5 -10752.5 -107-345+275
Courtside—72.5 -871-335+282
DraftKings-8.5 -10852.5 -105-345+275
Fanatics-8.5 -11052 -110-350+275
FanDuel-8.5 -10552.5 -108-320+255
Fliff-8.5 -11552.5 -115-355+265
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11551.5 -115-350+260
LowVig.ag-8 -10652 -108-350+280
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11052 -110-350+270
Pinnacle-8.5 -10752 -111-349+286
theScore Bet-8.5 -10552.5 -110-340+270

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +8.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Texas A&M): Fanatics +8.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +8.5 at -112 (-0.8%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (-1.1%) · Caesars +8.5 at -113 (-1.2%) · TOM +8 at -110 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Texas A&M to win · +270 at BetMGM
We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 22. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): Kalshi 25¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +275 (-0.3%) · BetMGM or TOM +270 (-0.6%) · FanDuel +255 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM 52.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · Caesars 52.5 at -113 (-1.3%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -115 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 52 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Texas A&M, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Texas A&M).

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-4.5-178
Sagarin-5.5-194
Massey-1.0-104
Market (19 books)-8.0-330
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.050.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies +8.5-110-108-0.5%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML+270+279-0.6%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-21 17:31.

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State
CFB 8:00pm
Sacramento State +4.5
should be Sacramento State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5
▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Sacramento State +4.5: FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 5.0% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →
Market
Massachusetts by 4.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Sacramento State by 15.7 pts our side
FPI
Massachusetts by 11.57 pts against us
Sagarin
Sacramento State by 15.4 pts our side
Massey
Sacramento State by 48.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 31.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Sacramento State. FPI at Massachusetts by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 3opened Massachusetts by 5.5now Massachusetts by 4.5SunTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.94.1 pts under the market
Massey
53.44.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.2on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.2opened 49.5now 49SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+4.5 -10849 -115+160-190
Pinnacle+4.5 -10848.5 -116+165-189
All 18 books
Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+4.5 -10849 -115+160-190
Bally Bet+5 -11048.5 -112+165-210
BetAnything+4.5 -11049 -110+165-190
BetMGM+4.5 -10849.5 -108+160-190
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -10849 -115+165-190
betPARX+5 -11048.5 -112+165-210
BetRivers+5 -11048.5 -112+165-210
BetUS+4.5 -11049 -115+163-190
Bovada+4.5 -11049 -110+165-195
Courtside—62.5 -469+163-188
DraftKings+4.5 -11049.5 -108+160-192
FanDuel+4.5 -11048.5 -115+160-194
Fliff+5.5 -12548.5 -125+155-200
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -11048.5 -115+170-220
LowVig.ag+4.5 -10449 -114+165-190
MyBookie.ag—49 -110——
Pinnacle+4.5 -10848.5 -116+165-189
theScore Bet+4.5 -10549.5 -105+165-195

Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +4.5 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM or TOM +4.5 at -108 (5.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Sacramento State to win · +160 at FanDuel
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Sacramento State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Sacramento State to win): FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +160 (4.1%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 49.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · TOM 49 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -105 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +4.5 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Sacramento State, now Damn Near Nasty.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-108
FPI+11.5+395
Sagarin-1.0-105
Massey-4.0-170
Market (17 books)+4.5+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +4.5-108-132+5.0%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+160+135+4.1%
TotalUnder 49.0-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.

FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas
CFB 7:00pm
Tulsa +7
should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 pt at TOM
A Little Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 7, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Arkansas by 7TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Arkansas by 33.9 pts our side
FPI
Arkansas by 1.55.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Arkansas by 103.1 pts against us
Massey
Arkansas by 14.57.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas by 61.1 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Tulsa. Sagarin at Arkansas by 10 and Massey at Arkansas by 14.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas by 6opened Arkansas by 7now Arkansas by 7SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
60.810.3 pts over the market
Massey
53.93.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.36.8 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.3opened 52now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7 -11250.5 -115-270+210
Kalshi-6.5 -131 55¢50.5 -107 50¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
Pinnacle-7 -10651 -101-268+227
All 20 books
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7 -11250.5 -115-270+210
Kalshi-6.5 -131 55¢50.5 -107 50¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
Bally Bet-7 -11050.5 -110-295+230
BetAnything-7 -11050.5 -115-270+225
BetMGM-7 -11250.5 -110-275+225
BetOnline.ag-7 -11250.5 -115-270+222
betPARX-7 -11050.5 -110-295+230
BetRivers-7 -11250.5 -112-305+230
BetUS-7 -10550.5 -110-260+218
Bovada-7 -11050 -110-275+225
Caesars-7 -11250.5 -113-265+215
Courtside—46.5 +135-263+225
DraftKings-7 -11050.5 -115-270+220
FanDuel-7.5 +10050.5 -110-295+235
Fliff-7.5 -10550.5 -120-290+220
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10550.5 -110-300+225
LowVig.ag-7 -10850.5 -114-270+222
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050.5 -110-280+220
Pinnacle-7 -10651 -101-268+227
theScore Bet-7.5 +10550.5 -115-280+230

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +7.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM +7 at -105 (3.8%) · TOM +7 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.8%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.8%).
A Little Nasty
Tulsa to win · +235 at FanDuel
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 30. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Tulsa loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): FanDuel +235 (3.5%) · BetMGM +225 (2.6%) · DraftKings +220 (2.1%) · Kalshi 30¢ (1.8%) · Caesars +215 (1.6%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 54. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 50.5 at 50¢ (3.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (3.2%) · Caesars 50.5 at -113 (2.5%) · DraftKings or TOM 50.5 at -115 (2.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-144
FPI-1.5-113
Sagarin-10.0-346
Massey-14.5-527
Market (18 books)-7.0-258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.557.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineTulsa Golden Hurricane ML+235+200+3.5%
SpreadTulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0-108-122+3.1%
TotalOver 50.5-115-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Sagarin and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington
CFB 10:00pm
Minnesota +10.5
should be Minnesota +10 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +9.5
▲A Little Nasty · MinnesotaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Minnesota. Market says Washington by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 10.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Washington by 91.4 pts our side
FPI
Washington by 73.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington by 7.53.1 pts our side
Massey
Washington by 9.50.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Washington by 100.7 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Minnesota. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 10opened Washington by 7.5now Washington by 10.5FriSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Minnesota is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.24.3 pts under the market
Massey
45.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.92.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.9opened 46now 46.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-10.5 -10846.5 -110-410+300
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢46.5 -107 50¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-10 -11346 -105-397+320
All 20 books
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-10.5 -10846.5 -110-410+300
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢46.5 -107 50¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Bally Bet-10 -11545.5 -112-435+330
BetAnything-10.5 -11046.5 -110-425+325
BetMGM-10.5 -11046.5 -108-425+320
BetOnline.ag-10.5 -10846.5 -110-410+324
betPARX-10 -11545.5 -112-435+330
BetRivers-10 -11545.5 -113-500+330
BetUS-10.5 -11046 -110-410+325
Bovada-10.5 -10546 -105-415+310
Caesars-10.5 -10946.5 -107-400+320
Courtside—64.5 -623-397+329
DraftKings-10.5 -10846.5 -105-410+320
FanDuel-10.5 -11545.5 -115-430+330
Fliff-10.5 -11546.5 -115-450+325
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -11045.5 -110-500+375
LowVig.ag-10.5 -10146.5 -105-410+324
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11046 -110-463+338
Pinnacle-10 -11346 -105-397+320
theScore Bet-10.5 -11546.5 -110-450+340

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +10.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Minnesota): FanDuel +10.5 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM +10.5 at -108 (0.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +10.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%).
Not Nasty
Minnesota to win · +330 at FanDuel
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): FanDuel +330 (0.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Caesars +320 (-0.4%) · Kalshi 23¢ (-0.8%) · TOM +300 (-1.6%).
Off the band
the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 46.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (-0.7%) · Caesars 46.5 at -113 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +10.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 56°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Minnesota.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 1021% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-9.0-308
FPI-7.0-249
Sagarin-7.5-270
Massey-9.5-317
Market (18 books)-10.5-392
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.543.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +10.5-105-111+1.4%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML+330+327priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Washington Huskies since 09-20 10:18.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
CFB 6:00pm
Jacksonville State -7
should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -9
A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →
Market
Jacksonville State by 7
The Four
SP+
Jacksonville State by 1810.8 pts our side
FPI
Jacksonville State by 6.50.6 pts against us
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 124.8 pts our side
Massey
Jacksonville State by 7on the market
Nasty Number
Jacksonville State by 7.50.5 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Jacksonville State. FPI at Jacksonville State by 6.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jacksonville State by 7.5opened Jacksonville State by 8.5now Jacksonville State by 7SunTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
57.15.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.23 pts over the market
Nasty Number
55.64.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.6opened 52now 51SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings -7.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Jacksonville State to win · -286 at DraftKings
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Jacksonville State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -285 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -295 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Jacksonville State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onJacksonville State by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.0-736
FPI-6.5-215
Sagarin-12.0-405
Massey-7.0-254
Market (17 books)-7.0-271
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.055.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0-110-116+1.3%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML-286-280-0.4%
TotalOver 51.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State
CFB 6:30pm
Troy +3
should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5
A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →
Market
Utah State by 3TOM, -106
The Four
SP+
Troy by 13.9 pts our side
FPI
Troy by 0.53.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Utah State by 3.50.3 pts against us
Massey
Utah State by 4.51.6 pts against us
Nasty Number
Utah State by 20.8 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Troy. Sagarin at Utah State by 3.5 and Massey at Utah State by 4.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah State by 2opened Utah State by 3now Utah State by 3FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.91.9 pts over the market
Massey
49.32.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.12.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.1opened 47now 47FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Utah State spreadTotal (over)Utah State MLTroy ML
TOM-3 -10647 -110-147+122
Pinnacle-3 -10547 -109-145+128
All 19 books
Utah State spreadTotal (over)Utah State MLTroy ML
TOM-3 -10647 -110-147+122
Bally Bet-2.5 -11247.5 -106-137+110
BetAnything-3 -11047 -110-150+130
BetMGM-3 -10847.5 -105-150+125
BetOnline.ag-3 -10647 -110-147+127
betPARX-2.5 -11247.5 -106-137+110
BetRivers-2.5 -11246.5 -122-137+110
BetUS-3 -10547 -110-145+125
Bovada-3 -11047 -110-145+125
Caesars-3 -10847 -113-150+126
Courtside-3 -10649.5 -166-145+127
DraftKings-3 -10847.5 -102-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -12247.5 -105-144+120
Fliff-2.5 -13046.5 -125-155+120
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12047.5 -105-145+125
LowVig.ag-3 -10247 -108-147+127
MyBookie.ag-3 -11047 -110-149+122
Pinnacle-3 -10547 -109-145+128
theScore Bet-2.5 -12547.5 -105-140+120

Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.

Troy +3.0 · -114 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Troy to win · +122 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Troy to win): Caesars or BetMGM +126 (1.7%) · DraftKings +124 (1.3%) · TOM +122 (0.9%) · FanDuel +120 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · TOM 47 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Caesars 47 at -113 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Full detail
We settle onUtah State by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+104
FPI+0.5+101
Sagarin-3.5-153
Massey-4.5-180
Market (18 books)-3.0-141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.049.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTroy Trojans +3.0-114-120+1.2%
MoneylineTroy Trojans ML+122+118+0.9%
TotalOver 47.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 5.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati
CFB 6:00pm
Over 55
should be 56.1 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Kansas State by 6.5TOM, -116
The Four
SP+
Kansas State by 4
FPI
Kansas State by 3
Sagarin
Kansas State by 1
Massey
Kansas State by 5.5
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 5.51.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas State by 5.5opened Kansas State by 6.5now Kansas State by 6.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Over -112
The Four
SP+ pace
59.34.3 pts over the market
Massey
57.62.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.53.5 pts over the market
Over 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.5opened 53now 55SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11655 -112+180-230
Pinnacle+6 -10555 -111+193-224
All 19 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11655 -112+180-230
Bally Bet+6 -11355.5 -113+195-250
BetAnything+6 -11055 -110+190-230
BetMGM+6 -11255.5 -102+188-225
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -11655 -112+192-230
betPARX+6 -11355.5 -113+195-250
BetRivers+6 -11355.5 -113+195-250
BetUS+6 -11055 -110+195-230
Bovada+6 -11055 -115+190-230
Caesars+6.5 -11355.5 -110+195-235
Courtside—59.5 -168+189-220
DraftKings+6.5 -11255.5 -105+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10255.5 -105+188-230
Fliff+6.5 -12055.5 -115+185-240
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10555.5 -105+180-240
LowVig.ag+6.5 -11255 -110+192-230
MyBookie.ag+6 -11055 -110+189-238
Pinnacle+6 -10555 -111+193-224
theScore Bet+5.5 -10555.5 -105+190-225

Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +6.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cincinnati): DraftKings +6.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · Caesars +6.5 at -113 (-0.3%) · TOM +6.5 at -116 (-0.9%) · BetMGM +6 at -112 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Cincinnati to win · +195 at Caesars
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): Caesars +195 (0.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +188 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +185 (-0.6%) · TOM +180 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 58. That's 3.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.4%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars 55.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +212 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+173
FPI+3.0+145
Sagarin+1.0+103
Massey+5.5+192
Market (18 books)+6.5+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.058.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+195+190+0.6%
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +6.5-116-112-0.9%
TotalOver 55.0-112-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.0 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +212 consensus.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC
CFB 6:30pm
Over 60.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 61.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 62
▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 60.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →
Market
Oregon by 3.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Oregon by 0.52.9 pts our side
FPI
Oregon by 1.51.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Oregon by 30.7 pts our side
Massey
Oregon by 40.3 pts against us
Nasty Number
Oregon by 30.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean USC. Massey at Oregon by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 3opened Oregon by 2.5now Oregon by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but USC is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
65.34.8 pts over the market
Massey
63.93.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
64.64.1 pts over the market
Over 60.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 64.6opened 61.5now 60.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3.5 -10860.5 -115+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢61.5 -103 49¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10261 -105+163-187
All 21 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3.5 -10860.5 -115+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢61.5 -103 49¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11061 -113+143-180
BetAnything+3.5 -10561 -110+155-180
BetMGM+4 -11860.5 -112+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10860.5 -115+161-185
betPARX+3.5 -11061 -113+143-180
BetRivers+3.5 -11261 -114+143-180
BetUS+3.5 -11061 -110+159-185
Bovada+4 -11561 -105+160-185
Caesars+3.5 -11260.5 -117+155-185
Courtside—63.5 -156+153-176
DraftKings+3.5 -11060.5 -115+150-180
Fanatics+3.5 -10561 -110+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -11461.5 -110+140-170
Fliff+3.5 -11561.5 -115+145-185
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11060.5 -115+150-180
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10460.5 -114+161-185
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11061 -110+147-182
Pinnacle+3.5 -10261 -105+163-187
theScore Bet+3.5 -12061.5 -110+145-170

Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.

USC +3.5 · -108 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (USC): Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (1.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -108 (0.8%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (0.3%) · BetMGM +4 at -118 (-0.0%) · Caesars +3.5 at -112 (-0.1%).
Not Nasty
USC to win · +155 at Fanatics
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (USC to win): Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +155 (1.7%) · Kalshi 38¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +150 (0.9%) · FanDuel +140 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 60.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 64. That's 4.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 60.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings or TOM 60.5 at -115 (-0.4%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-0.5%) · Caesars 60.5 at -117 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 60.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+1.5+112
Sagarin+3.0+131
Massey+4.0+167
Market (19 books)+3.5+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.564.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineUSC Trojans ML+155+144+1.7%
SpreadUSC Trojans +3.5-108-111+0.8%
TotalOver 60.5-115-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.9 consensus.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion
CFB 5:00pm
Under 44
weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total
▲A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 44, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says James Madison by 6.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →
Market
James Madison by 6.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
James Madison by 11
FPI
James Madison by 8.5
Sagarin
James Madison by 4.5
Massey
James Madison by 8
Nasty Number
James Madison by 70.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 7opened James Madison by 4.5now James Madison by 6.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from James Madison by 4.5 to James Madison by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.91.1 pts under the market
Massey
50.66.6 pts over the market
Weather
-3.520 mph wind, takes 3.5 points off
Nasty Number
43.20.8 pts under the market
Under 44 is a weather call. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.2opened 49.5now 44SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+6.5 -10544 -110+200-250
Kalshi+6.5 -103 49¢43.5 -112 51¢+198 32¢-239 69¢
Pinnacle+6.5 +10144.5 -101+205-239
All 19 books
Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+6.5 -10544 -110+200-250
Kalshi+6.5 -103 49¢43.5 -112 51¢+198 32¢-239 69¢
Bally Bet+7 -11843.5 -112+210-275
BetAnything+7 -11544 -110+195-235
BetMGM+7 -11244.5 -102+200-250
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -10544 -110+207-250
betPARX+7 -11843.5 -112+210-275
BetRivers+7 -11843.5 -113+210-275
BetUS+7 -11544 -110+210-250
Bovada+6.5 -10544 -110+205-245
Courtside—46.5 -141+205-239
DraftKings+6.5 -10543.5 -118+200-245
FanDuel+6.5 +10043.5 -115+215-265
Fliff+6.5 -11043.5 -125+205-265
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -10543.5 -115+195-260
LowVig.ag+6.5 -10144 -108+207-250
MyBookie.ag+7 -11044 -110+189-238
Pinnacle+6.5 +10144.5 -101+205-239
theScore Bet+6.5 +10543.5 -115+220-270

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -6.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-0.4%) · BetMGM -7 at -105 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -122 (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
James Madison to win · -250 at BetMGM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (James Madison to win): Kalshi 69¢ (0.2%) · DraftKings -245 (-0.3%) · BetMGM or TOM -250 (-0.7%) · FanDuel -265 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 3.5 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -102 (-1.8%) · TOM 44 at -110 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -118 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 50¢ (-3.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 66°F, 21% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under, weather.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward James Madison).

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++11.0+380
FPI+8.5+299
Sagarin+4.5+182
Massey+8.0+295
Market (17 books)+6.5+209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.043.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -6.5-115-113-0.4%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-250-242-0.7%
TotalUnder 44.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-21 22:21; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte
CFB 5:30pm
Over 49Moved our way · 2.5 pts
should be 51.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 52
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Louisiana by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Louisiana by 14.5
FPI
Louisiana by 7.5
Sagarin
Louisiana by 7.5
Massey
Louisiana by 8.5
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 90.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 9opened Louisiana by 14now Louisiana by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
58.69.6 pts over the market
Massey
54.75.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.77.7 pts over the market
Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.7opened 51.5now 49SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+9.5 -11049 -115+295-385
Kalshi+9.5 -112 51¢49.5 -103 49¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
Pinnacle+9 -10549 -113+308-379
All 19 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+9.5 -11049 -115+295-385
Kalshi+9.5 -112 51¢49.5 -103 49¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
Bally Bet+9.5 -11248.5 -115+300-420
BetAnything+9 -11049 -110+297-375
BetMGM+9.5 -11048.5 -120+310-375
BetOnline.ag+9.5 -11049 -115+306-385
betPARX+9.5 -11248.5 -115+300-420
BetRivers+9.5 -11248.5 -115+300-420
BetUS+9.5 -11049 -115+280-350
Bovada+9 -11049.5 -105+300-400
Courtside—54.5 -220+303-364
DraftKings+9.5 -11249.5 -105+295-375
FanDuel+10.5 -12249.5 -104+310-400
Fliff+9.5 -12048.5 -125+295-395
Hard Rock Bet+9.5 -10548.5 -115+300-400
LowVig.ag+9.5 -10649 -114+306-385
MyBookie.ag+9 -11049 -110+282-372
Pinnacle+9 -10549 -113+308-379
theScore Bet+9.5 -10548.5 -115+300-400

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +10.5 · -122 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Charlotte): FanDuel +10.5 at -122 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or TOM +9.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +9.5 at -112 (-2.1%).
Not Nasty
Charlotte to win · +313 (23¢) at Kalshi
We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +313 (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM +295 (-0.6%).
Off the band
the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 55. That's 7.7 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 49¢ (3.7%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -104 (3.5%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (3.2%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -120 (2.4%) · TOM 49 at -115 (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened +14.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 5.1 toward Charlotte). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -9.5, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +308 here against +352 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++14.5+533
FPI+7.5+260
Sagarin+7.5+278
Massey+8.5+296
Market (17 books)+9.5+308
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.056.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +10.5-122-119-0.7%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+313+305priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.0-115-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.3 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.2 consensus; moneyline +308 here against +352 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State
CFB 6:45pm
Mississippi State -5.5
should be Mississippi State -4.5 · giving up 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Mississippi State by 5.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Missouri by 1
FPI
Mississippi State by 6
Sagarin
Mississippi State by 6
Massey
Mississippi State by 2.5
Nasty Number
Mississippi State by 4.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Mississippi State by 4.5opened Mississippi State by 3.5now Mississippi State by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Mississippi State by 3.5 to Mississippi State by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.44.1 pts under the market
Massey
57.11.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.8opened 59now 58.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -10558.5 -115-210+170
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢58.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+174 35¢
Pinnacle-5 -10758.5 -106-202+176
All 21 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -10558.5 -115-210+170
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢58.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+174 35¢
Bally Bet-4.5 -11358.5 -110-210+165
BetAnything-5 -11058.5 -110-210+175
BetMGM-4.5 -11058.5 -108-210+170
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10558.5 -115-210+180
betPARX-4.5 -11358.5 -110-210+165
BetRivers-4.5 -11458.5 -112-210+163
BetUS-4.5 -11058.5 -110-210+180
Bovada-5 -11058.5 -110-210+175
Caesars-4.5 -11558.5 -115-218+182
Courtside—70.5 -383-213+184
DraftKings-4.5 -11558.5 -112-218+180
Fanatics-5 -11058.5 -110-215+175
FanDuel-4.5 -11058.5 -106-200+164
Fliff-4.5 -12058.5 -115-215+170
Hard Rock Bet-4.5 -11558.5 -110-220+170
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10658.5 -114-210+180
MyBookie.ag-5 -11058.5 -110-212+170
Pinnacle-5 -10758.5 -106-202+176
theScore Bet-4.5 -11058.5 +100-195+165

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +5.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): Kalshi +5.5 at 51¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars +4.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (-1.7%) · TOM +5.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Missouri to win · +182 at Caesars
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Missouri to win): Caesars +182 (0.1%) · DraftKings +180 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +175 (-0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM +170 (-1.4%) · FanDuel +164 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars or TOM 58.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 58.5 at -107 (0.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -114 (-1.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -5.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Missouri).

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMississippi State by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+103
FPI-6.0-198
Sagarin-6.0-201
Massey-2.5-120
Market (19 books)-5.5-201
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.555.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+182+181+0.1%
SpreadMissouri Tigers +5.5-115-106-1.9%
TotalUnder 58.5-105-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Missouri Tigers since 09-23 09:07.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia
CFB 5:00pm
Virginia -20
should be Virginia -20 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 20TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Virginia by 21
FPI
Virginia by 15.5
Sagarin
Virginia by 22
Massey
Virginia by 23
Nasty Number
Virginia by 200.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 20opened Virginia by 20.5now Virginia by 20SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.10.4 pts under the market
Massey
52.80.3 pts over the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
51.80.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 54.5now 52.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-20 -11052.5 -108——
Kalshi—53.5 +101 48¢-1236 92¢+944 9¢
Pinnacle-20 -10552.5 -108-1253+803
All 18 books
Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-20 -11052.5 -108——
Kalshi—53.5 +101 48¢-1236 92¢+944 9¢
Bally Bet-19.5 -10952.5 -109-1430+800
BetAnything-20 -11052.5 -110-1500+865
BetMGM-20 -11052.5 -108-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20 -11052.5 -108-1400+836
betPARX-19.5 -10952.5 -109-1430+800
BetRivers-19.5 -11052.5 -110-1667+800
BetUS-20 -11052 -110-1400+825
Bovada-20 -11052.5 -110-1400+750
Courtside—70.5 -843-1339+897
DraftKings-19.5 -11552.5 -112-1450+850
FanDuel-20.5 -11052.5 -110-1700+890
Fliff-19.5 -12052.5 -115-1765+860
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -11052.5 -110-1200+750
LowVig.ag-20 -10652.5 -106-1400+836
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11052.5 -110-1699+880
Pinnacle-20 -10552.5 -108-1253+803

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -20.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Virginia): BetMGM or TOM -20 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -20.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Virginia to win · -1400 at BetMGM
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Virginia to win): Kalshi 92¢ (-2.4%) · BetMGM -1400 (-3.2%) · DraftKings -1450 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -1700 (-4.3%).
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 52.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 53¢ (-1.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · TOM 52.5 at -112 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-21.0-998
FPI-15.5-555
Sagarin-22.0-1204
Massey-23.0-1304
Market (16 books)-20.0-1169
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.551.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Cavaliers -20.0-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineVirginia Cavaliers ML-1400-911priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-112-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 13:55; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas State
CFB 5:00pm
Incarnate Word +30
should be Incarnate Word +27 · getting 3 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 30.

The spread

← more Incarnate Word than the bookmore Texas State →
Market
Texas State by 30TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Texas State by 20
Nasty Number
Texas State by 272.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 27opened Texas State by 30.5now Texas State by 30FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas State by 30.5 to Texas State by 30. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLIncarnate Word ML
TOM-30 -11066.5 -110——
Pinnacle-30.5 -11266 -120——
All 15 books
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLIncarnate Word ML
TOM-30 -11066.5 -110——
Bally Bet-30.5 -11565.5 -112——
BetMGM-30 -11066.5 -105—+2000
BetOnline.ag-30 -11066.5 -110——
betPARX-30.5 -11565.5 -112——
BetRivers-30.5 -11565.5 -112——
Bovada-30.5 -11066.5 -115——
Courtside-30.5 -11066.5 -106-2733+1522
DraftKings-30.5 -11266.5 -108-3200+1400
FanDuel-30.5 -10565.5 -115—+1600
Fliff-30.5 -12066.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-30.5 -11065.5 -105—+1400
LowVig.ag-30 -11066.5 -110——
Pinnacle-30.5 -11266 -120——
theScore Bet-29.5 -11565.5 -115——

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Incarnate Word +30.5 · -108 at DraftKings
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Incarnate Word): DraftKings +30.5 at -108 (6.6%) · BetMGM +30 at -108 (5.9%) · TOM +30 at -110 (5.5%) · FanDuel +30.5 at -115 (5.0%).
Blowout line
Incarnate Word to win · +2000 at BetMGM
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Incarnate Word to win): BetMGM +2000 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +1400 (-2.4%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.4 consensus.

TOM: total 66.5 here against 66.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 2730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Incarnate Word
FPIdoesn't rate Incarnate Word
Sagarin-20.0-878
Masseyrates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales
Market (14 books)-30.0-3691
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points66.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIncarnate Word Cardinals +30.5-108-141+6.6%
MoneylineIncarnate Word Cardinals ML+2000+2228priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved up 5.5.

TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.4 consensus; total 66.5 here against 66.0 consensus.

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami
CFB 5:30pm
Under 53
should be 50.4 · getting 2.5 pts · was 54.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →
Market
Miami by 41
The Four
SP+
Miami by 40.5
FPI
Miami by 42
Sagarin
Miami by 40.5
Massey
Miami by 36.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 410.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 41opened Miami by 40.5now Miami by 41SunTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
42.310.7 pts under the market
Massey
46.76.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.58.5 pts under the market
Under 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.5opened 52.5now 53SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi—52.5 -112 51¢——
Pinnacle-41 -10853 -105——
All 18 books
Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi—52.5 -112 51¢——
Bally Bet-41.5 -11254 -108——
BetAnything-41.5 -11552.5 -110——
BetMGM-41.5 -11052.5 -110——
BetOnline.ag-41.5 -11552.5 -110——
betPARX-41.5 -11254 -108——
BetRivers-41.5 -11354 -109——
BetUS-42 -11052.5 -110——
Bovada-41 -11053 +105——
Courtside—62.5 -412——
DraftKings-41.5 -11252.5 -112——
Fanatics-41.5 -11053.5 -110——
FanDuel-41.5 -11452.5 -114——
Fliff-41.5 -12052.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-41.5 -11553.5 -115——
LowVig.ag-41.5 -11152.5 -108——
Pinnacle-41 -10853 -105——
theScore Bet-41.5 -11552.5 -110——

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +41.5 · -106 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Michigan): FanDuel +41.5 at -106 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +41.5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +41.5 at -110 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 47. That's 8.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (5.2%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (3.7%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -107 (3.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan).

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 4130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-40.5—
FPI-42.0—
Sagarin-40.5—
Massey-36.5—
Market (17 books)-41.0—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.044.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas +41.5-106-106-0.1%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-130shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 13:21; total has moved down 1.5.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama
CFB 6:00pm
Alabama -12.5
should be Alabama -12.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 12.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 8.5
FPI
Alabama by 12.5
Sagarin
Alabama by 12
Massey
Alabama by 14
Nasty Number
Alabama by 12.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 12.5opened Alabama by 12now Alabama by 12.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.36.7 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 53.5now 54SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11054 -110-515+365
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢54.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -10854 -108-512+397
All 21 books
Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11054 -110-515+365
Kalshi-11.5 -116 52¢54.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet-12 -11253.5 -113-590+400
BetAnything-12.5 -11054 -110-525+400
BetMGM-12 -11854.5 -105-500+400
BetOnline.ag-12.5 -11054 -110-515+393
betPARX-12 -11253.5 -113-590+400
BetRivers-12 -11353.5 -114-590+400
BetUS-12.5 -11054 -110-485+380
Bovada-12.5 -11054 -110-525+375
Caesars-12.5 -10954 -110-500+380
Courtside—72.5 -1173-501+402
DraftKings-12.5 -11054.5 -108-520+390
Fanatics-12.5 -11054 -110-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11054.5 -106-530+390
Fliff-12.5 -11553.5 -125-555+390
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11554.5 -110-550+375
LowVig.ag-12.5 -10654 -108-515+393
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11054 -110-526+370
Pinnacle-12.5 -10854 -108-512+397
theScore Bet-12.5 -11054.5 -105-600+400

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +12.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): Kalshi +11.5 at 49¢ (-1.8%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +12.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · +400 at BetMGM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): BetMGM or Kalshi +400 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics +390 (-1.0%) · Caesars +380 (-1.4%) · TOM +365 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (0.1%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -114 (-0.5%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 54 at -110 (-0.8%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-12.0-404
Massey-14.0-500
Market (19 books)-12.5-493
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks +12.5-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML+400+415priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State
CFB 6:00pm
Arkansas State -6.5
should be Arkansas State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 6.5
The Four
SP+
Arkansas State by 5
FPI
Arkansas State by 3
Sagarin
Arkansas State by 5.5
Massey
Arkansas State by 7
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas State by 6opened Arkansas State by 4now Arkansas State by 6.5SunTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 4 to Arkansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.93.3 pts over the market
Massey
51.31.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.61 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.6opened 53.5now 52.5SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kennesaw State +6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +6.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · BetMGM +6 at -108 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · +200 at BetMGM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): BetMGM +200 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +195 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -115 (-2.7%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State).

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.0-188
FPI-3.0-138
Sagarin-5.5-196
Massey-7.0-228
Market (17 books)-6.5-225
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.553.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +6.5-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML+200+207-0.8%
TotalOver 52.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western Kentucky
CFB 6:00pm
Mercyhurst +40
should be Mercyhurst +34.5 · getting 5.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 40.

The spread

← more Mercyhurst than the bookmore Western Kentucky →
Market
Western Kentucky by 40TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Western Kentucky by 25
Nasty Number
Western Kentucky by 34.55.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Kentucky by 34.5opened Western Kentucky by 40.5now Western Kentucky by 40FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 40.5 to Western Kentucky by 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Western Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Western Kentucky MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-40 -10558.5 -110——
Kalshi—58.5 -112 51¢——
Pinnacle-40.5 -10958.5 -116——
All 16 books
Western Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Western Kentucky MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-40 -10558.5 -110——
Kalshi—58.5 -112 51¢——
Bally Bet-42 -12057.5 -112——
BetMGM-40 -11058.5 -112——
BetOnline.ag-40 -10558.5 -110——
betPARX-42 -12057.5 -112——
BetRivers-42 -12057.5 -112——
Bovada-40.5 -11059 -110——
Courtside-40.5 -10858.5 -110——
DraftKings-40.5 -11058.5 -112——
FanDuel-40.5 -11058.5 -118——
Fliff-40.5 -11558.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-40.5 -11058.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-40 -10558.5 -110——
Pinnacle-40.5 -10958.5 -116——
theScore Bet-41.5 -11058.5 -125——

Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mercyhurst +40.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 66 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Mercyhurst): FanDuel or DraftKings +40.5 at -110 (13.9%) · BetMGM +40 at -110 (13.5%) · TOM +40 at -115 (12.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Mercyhurst to win · +4086
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Mercyhurst to win): Kalshi 2¢ (-0.8%) · FanDuel +3500 (-1.4%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -37.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Western Kentucky).

The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Kentucky by 34.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Mercyhurst
FPIdoesn't rate Mercyhurst
Sagarin-25.0-1786
Masseyrates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales
Market (14 books)-40.0—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMercyhurst Lakers +40.5-110-197+13.9%
MoneylineMercyhurst Lakers ML+4086+7130priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.9.

TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.6 consensus.

The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia
CFB 6:00pm
West Virginia -2
should be West Virginia -2 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
West Virginia by 2TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Oklahoma State by 2.5
FPI
West Virginia by 2.5
Sagarin
West Virginia by 4
Massey
West Virginia by 5.5
Nasty Number
West Virginia by 20 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number West Virginia by 2opened West Virginia by 2.5now West Virginia by 2SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.65.4 pts under the market
Massey
55.64.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.14.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.1opened 59.5now 60SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-2 -10560 -110-127+107
Pinnacle-2 -10360 -108-121+107
All 19 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-2 -10560 -110-127+107
Bally Bet-2 -10960.5 -112-125+104
BetAnything-2 -11060 -110-130+110
BetMGM-2 -11260.5 -108-125+105
BetOnline.ag-2 -10560 -110-127+107
betPARX-2 -10960.5 -112-125+104
BetRivers-2 -11060.5 -113-127+102
BetUS-2 -10560.5 -110-130+110
Bovada-1.5 -11060 -110-125+105
Caesars-1.5 -11359.5 -118-121+103
Courtside—67.5 -241-122+107
DraftKings-1.5 -11259.5 -112-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 -11560.5 -114-126+105
Fliff-1.5 -12060.5 -115-130+100
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11560.5 -110-125+105
LowVig.ag-2 -10160 -108-127+107
MyBookie.ag-2 -11060 -110-129+106
Pinnacle-2 -10360 -108-121+107
theScore Bet-1.5 -11060.5 -115-125+105

Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia -2.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (West Virginia): TOM -2 at -105 (-1.2%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · Caesars -1.5 at -113 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · BetMGM -2 at -112 (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
West Virginia to win · -121 at Caesars
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): Caesars -121 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or FanDuel -125 (-1.8%) · TOM -127 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 60.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -106 (2.2%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Caesars 59.5 at -103 (0.4%) · TOM 60 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -108 (-0.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.

Full detail
We settle onWest Virginia by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+128
FPI-2.5-122
Sagarin-4.0-172
Massey-5.5-195
Market (18 books)-2.0-122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.055.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers -2.0-105-100-1.2%
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML-121-116-1.0%
TotalUnder 60.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane
CFB 6:00pm
Southern Miss +18
should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 18TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Tulane by 15.5
FPI
Tulane by 15
Sagarin
Tulane by 20.5
Massey
Tulane by 20
Nasty Number
Tulane by 17.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulane by 17.5opened Tulane by 19now Tulane by 18SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.20.7 pts over the market
Massey
49.13.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.21.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 54now 52.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-18 -11052.5 -110——
Kalshi-17.5 -116 52¢52.5 -112 51¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-18 -11152.5 -109-1107+731
All 19 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-18 -11052.5 -110——
Kalshi-17.5 -116 52¢52.5 -112 51¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Bally Bet-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetAnything-18 -11052 -110-1200+750
BetMGM-18 -11052.5 -108-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-18 -11052.5 -110-1100+709
betPARX-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetRivers-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetUS-18 -11052.5 -110-1100+700
Bovada-18.5 -11052.5 -110-1200+700
Courtside-18.5 -10668.5 -623-1032+733
DraftKings-18.5 -10852.5 -108-1100+700
FanDuel-18.5 -10853.5 -110-1100+680
Fliff-18.5 -11552.5 -115-1265+705
Hard Rock Bet-18.5 -11052.5 -110-1000+650
LowVig.ag-18 -10652.5 -108-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-18 -11052.5 -110-1099+640
Pinnacle-18 -11152.5 -109-1107+731
theScore Bet-17.5 -11053.5 -110-900+550

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +18.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel or DraftKings +18.5 at -112 (0.3%) · BetMGM +18 at -108 (-0.1%) · Kalshi +17.5 at 49¢ (-0.3%) · TOM +18 at -110 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +707 at DraftKings
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): Kalshi 11¢ (1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +700 (0.2%) · FanDuel +680 (-0.1%).
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%) · BetMGM or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -112 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 83°F.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.5-566
FPI-15.0-546
Sagarin-20.5-918
Massey-20.0-887
Market (17 books)-18.0-991
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.551.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.0-110-108-0.5%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+707+686priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State
CFB 6:30pm
NC State -13
should be NC State -13 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →
Market
NC State by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
NC State by 13.5
FPI
NC State by 9
Sagarin
NC State by 20.5
Massey
NC State by 16
Nasty Number
NC State by 130 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number NC State by 13opened NC State by 14now NC State by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.11.6 pts over the market
Massey
56.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.9opened 55now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-13 -11055.5 -110-525+375
Pinnacle-12.5 -10955 -115-513+398
All 17 books
NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-13 -11055.5 -110-525+375
Bally Bet-13.5 -11255.5 -110-590+410
BetAnything-13 -11055.5 -110-550+410
BetMGM-13 -11055.5 -110-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11055.5 -110-525+400
betPARX-13.5 -11255.5 -110-590+410
BetRivers-13.5 -11355.5 -112-590+410
BetUS-13 -11055.5 -110-525+405
Bovada-12.5 -11555.5 -110-550+390
Courtside—70.5 -623-515+413
DraftKings-12.5 -11255.5 -110-535+400
FanDuel-13.5 -10655.5 -110-550+400
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11055.5 -110-550+400
LowVig.ag-13 -10855.5 -108-525+400
MyBookie.ag-13 -11055.5 -110-549+390
Pinnacle-12.5 -10955 -115-513+398
theScore Bet-13.5 -10555.5 -110-650+425

Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State -13.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (NC State): FanDuel -13.5 at -106 (-2.1%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · BetMGM or TOM -13 at -110 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
NC State to win · -525 at BetMGM
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (NC State to win): BetMGM or TOM -525 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -535 (-3.1%) · FanDuel -550 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 55.5 at -110 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward App State).

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNC State by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-443
FPI-9.0-310
Sagarin-20.5-950
Massey-16.0-574
Market (16 books)-13.0-502
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.556.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack -13.0-110-100-2.4%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML-525-430priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-20 13:55.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State
CFB 6:30pm
Arizona -10.5
should be Arizona -10.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Arizona by 10.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Arizona by 13
FPI
Arizona by 10.5
Sagarin
Arizona by 7
Massey
Arizona by 5.5
Nasty Number
Arizona by 10.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 10.5opened Arizona by 10now Arizona by 10.5FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 10 to Arizona by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.52.5 pts under the market
Massey
46.21.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.9opened 48now 48FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Washington State spreadTotal (over)Washington State MLArizona ML
TOM+10.5 -10548 -115+305-415
Pinnacle+10.5 -10348.5 -103+361-458
All 19 books
Washington State spreadTotal (over)Washington State MLArizona ML
TOM+10.5 -10548 -115+305-415
Bally Bet+10.5 -11047.5 -112+320-420
BetAnything+10.5 -10548 -110+335-415
BetMGM+10.5 -10848.5 -105+320-425
BetOnline.ag+10.5 -10548 -115+327-415
betPARX+10.5 -11047.5 -112+320-420
BetRivers+10.5 -11247.5 -113+310-435
BetUS+10.5 -11048 -115+330-415
Bovada+11 -11048 -115+350-480
Caesars+10.5 -11048.5 -107+320-420
Courtside—58.5 -362+329-397
DraftKings+10.5 -11048.5 -105+320-410
FanDuel+10.5 -11048.5 -106+330-430
Fliff+10.5 -11548.5 -110+325-445
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -10548.5 -105+350-475
LowVig.ag+10.5 -10148 -114+327-415
MyBookie.ag+11 -11048 -110+338-463
Pinnacle+10.5 -10348.5 -103+361-458
theScore Bet+10.5 -10548.5 +100+320-425

Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -10.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arizona): FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -10.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · TOM -10.5 at -115 (-3.4%).
Not Nasty
Arizona to win · -415 at DraftKings
We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arizona to win): DraftKings or TOM -410 (-1.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM -420 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -430 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -105 (-0.8%) · Caesars 48.5 at -113 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -114 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -115 (-1.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 58°F.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Arizona). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +319 here against +405 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 10.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+435
FPI+10.5+370
Sagarin+7.0+231
Massey+5.5+189
Market (18 books)+10.5+319
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.045.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArizona Wildcats -10.5-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineArizona Wildcats ML-415-367priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus; moneyline +319 here against +405 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North Texas
CFB 6:30pm
Houston Christian +39
should be Houston Christian +35 · getting 4 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.

The spread

← more Houston Christian than the bookmore North Texas →
Market
North Texas by 39TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
North Texas by 30
Nasty Number
North Texas by 354.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Texas by 35opened North Texas by 39.5now North Texas by 39FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 39.5 to North Texas by 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLHouston Christian ML
TOM-39 -10559.5 -120——
Kalshi—60.5 -112 51¢——
Pinnacle-38 -11460 -118——
All 16 books
North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLHouston Christian ML
TOM-39 -10559.5 -120——
Kalshi—60.5 -112 51¢——
Bally Bet-40 -12159.5 -108——
BetMGM-38.5 -10860.5 -110——
BetOnline.ag-39 -10559.5 -120——
betPARX-40 -12159.5 -108——
BetRivers-40 -12159.5 -108——
Bovada-38 -11560.5 -110——
Courtside-38.5 -10360.5 -110——
DraftKings-38.5 -10560.5 -112——
FanDuel-38.5 -11060.5 -112——
Fliff-37.5 -12559.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-38.5 -11060.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-39 -10559.5 -120——
Pinnacle-38 -11460 -118——
theScore Bet-38.5 -11060.5 -115——

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston Christian +39.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Houston Christian): TOM +39 at -115 (8.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +38.5 at -110 (7.5%) · DraftKings +38.5 at -115 (6.4%).
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.4 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNorth Texas by 3540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Houston Christian
FPIdoesn't rate Houston Christian
Sagarin-30.0-3415
Masseyrates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales
Market (14 books)-39.0—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Baptist Huskies +39.0-115-160+8.1%

Line move: total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.4 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe
CFB 7:00pm
Florida Atlantic -11.5
should be Florida Atlantic -11 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 11.5TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
Florida Atlantic by 18.5
FPI
Florida Atlantic by 10
Sagarin
Florida Atlantic by 7.5
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 7
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 110.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida Atlantic by 11opened Florida Atlantic by 13.5now Florida Atlantic by 11.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
61.33.3 pts over the market
Massey
591 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.22.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.2opened 59now 58SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+11.5 -10758 -115+330-460
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢58.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-458 81¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -11258 -111+379-484
All 19 books
UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+11.5 -10758 -115+330-460
Kalshi+11.5 -112 51¢58.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-458 81¢
Bally Bet+11.5 -11258.5 -112+360-560
BetAnything+11.5 -10558 -110+365-475
BetMGM+12 -11058.5 -105+375-475
BetOnline.ag+11.5 -10758 -115+358-460
betPARX+11.5 -11258.5 -112+360-560
BetRivers+11.5 -11258.5 -112+360-560
BetUS+11.5 -11058 -115+360-460
Bovada+11.5 -11058 -115+360-500
Courtside—55.5 +112+381-468
DraftKings+11.5 -10858.5 -105+370-485
FanDuel+11.5 -10658.5 -108+375-500
Fliff+11.5 -11558.5 -115+370-520
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11058.5 -105+350-475
LowVig.ag+11.5 -10358 -114+358-460
MyBookie.ag+11.5 -11058 -110+350-481
Pinnacle+12.5 -11258 -111+379-484
theScore Bet+11.5 -10558.5 -105+340-450

Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +11.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +11.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · TOM +11.5 at -107 (-1.1%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 51¢ (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UL Monroe to win · +375 at FanDuel
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi +375 (-0.5%) · DraftKings +370 (-0.7%) · TOM +330 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or BetMGM 58.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel 58.5 at -107 (-0.6%) · TOM 58 at -115 (-1.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe).

TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +345 here against +443 consensus.

Courtside has the total at 55.5 while Pinnacle is at 58. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 1140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+781
FPI+10.0+340
Sagarin+7.5+262
Massey+7.0+238
Market (17 books)+11.5+345
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.060.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUL Monroe Warhawks +11.5-107-102-1.1%
MoneylineUL Monroe Warhawks ML+375+387priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 58.0-115-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 08:31.

TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus; moneyline +345 here against +443 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU
CFB 8:00pm
Missouri State +32
should be Missouri State +31 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 32.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 32TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
SMU by 31.5
FPI
SMU by 28
Sagarin
SMU by 33.5
Massey
SMU by 27.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 310.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 31opened SMU by 34.5now SMU by 32SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from SMU by 34.5 to SMU by 32. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.84.7 pts under the market
Massey
57.61.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
56.23.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.2opened 59.5now 59.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-32 -11559.5 -115——
Pinnacle-31.5 -11060 -109——
All 20 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-32 -11559.5 -115——
Bally Bet-32.5 -11260 -112——
BetAnything-31.5 -11060 -110——
BetMGM-31.5 -11060.5 -108—+2800
BetOnline.ag-31.5 -11059.5 -115——
betPARX-32.5 -11260 -112——
BetRivers-32.5 -11360 -113——
BetUS-31.5 -11060 -110——
Bovada-31.5 -11560 -110——
Caesars-31.5 -11360 -112—+2100
Courtside—79.5 -1347—+2889
DraftKings-31.5 -10860.5 -108—+2500
Fanatics-31.5 -11560.5 -110—+3000
FanDuel-32.5 -10560.5 -110—+3000
Fliff-31.5 -12060.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-32.5 -10560.5 -115—+1600
LowVig.ag-31.5 -10659.5 -114——
MyBookie.ag-31.5 -11060.5 -110—+1500
Pinnacle-31.5 -11060 -109——
theScore Bet-31.5 -11559.5 -115——

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +32.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): TOM +32 at -105 (2.1%) · FanDuel +32.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Fanatics +31.5 at -105 (0.5%) · Caesars +31.5 at -107 (0.1%) · BetMGM +31.5 at -108 (-0.2%).
Blowout line
Missouri State to win · +2800 at BetMGM
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): FanDuel or Fanatics +3000 (-0.9%) · BetMGM +2800 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +2500 (-1.5%) · Caesars +2100 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 59.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -112 (1.1%) · Caesars 60 at -109 (0.6%) · TOM 59.5 at -105 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -35.0, now -31.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Missouri State).

TOM: spread -32.0 here against -31.6 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 3130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-31.5-4740
FPI-28.0-2521
Sagarin-33.5—
Massey-27.5-2294
Market (19 books)-32.0—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.556.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri State Bears +32.0-105-114+2.1%
MoneylineMissouri State Bears ML+2800+4177priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 59.5-105-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Missouri State Bears since 09-21 08:04; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread -32.0 here against -31.6 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.1 consensus.

The line is -32.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP
CFB 8:00pm
Oregon State -11
should be Oregon State -12 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
Oregon State by 11TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Oregon State by 15
FPI
Oregon State by 14
Sagarin
Oregon State by 8.5
Massey
Oregon State by 12.5
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 121 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 12opened Oregon State by 10.5now Oregon State by 11FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.27.8 pts under the market
Massey
56.90.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.53.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 56now 56FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLOregon State ML
TOM+11 -11056 -110+340-450
Pinnacle+10.5 +10155.5 -117+378-483
All 19 books
UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLOregon State ML
TOM+11 -11056 -110+340-450
Bally Bet+11 -10856 -109+360-480
BetAnything+11 -10556 -110+375-500
BetMGM+11 -11055.5 -118+350-450
BetOnline.ag+11 -11056 -110+350-450
betPARX+11 -10856 -109+360-480
BetRivers+11 -10956 -110+350-500
BetUS+11.5 -11556 -110+355-450
Bovada+11 -10556 -110+360-500
Caesars+11.5 -11355.5 -120+350-460
Courtside—48.5 +188+350-426
DraftKings+11.5 -11556.5 -105+340-440
FanDuel+10.5 -10656.5 -106+330-430
Fliff+11.5 -12055.5 -125+345-480
Hard Rock Bet+12.5 -11055.5 -115+350-475
LowVig.ag+11 -10656 -108+350-450
MyBookie.ag+11 -11056 -110+350-481
Pinnacle+10.5 +10155.5 -117+378-483
theScore Bet+10.5 -10555.5 -110+320-425

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon State -11.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): BetMGM -11 at -108 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -11.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -114 (-0.7%) · TOM -11 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars -11.5 at -107 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Oregon State to win · -450 at BetMGM
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): FanDuel -430 (-0.8%) · DraftKings -440 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or TOM -450 (-1.5%) · Caesars -460 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 55.5 at -102 (2.2%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (1.9%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM 56 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +12.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward UTEP).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has UTEP +12.5 while Pinnacle is at Oregon State by 10.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 1240% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+543
FPI+14.0+472
Sagarin+8.5+300
Massey+12.5+416
Market (18 books)+11.0+355
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.052.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers -11.0-110-107-0.7%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML-450-408priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UTEP Miners since 09-20 10:31; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State
CFB 9:00pm
Fresno State -13.5
should be Fresno State -13.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 13.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 16.5
FPI
Fresno State by 15
Sagarin
Fresno State by 14.5
Massey
Fresno State by 15.5
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 13.5opened Fresno State by 13now Fresno State by 13.5FriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Fresno State by 13 to Fresno State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
39.63.4 pts under the market
Massey
44.11.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
41.81.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.8opened 44.5now 43FriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLRice ML
TOM-13.5 -10543 -115-530+380
Pinnacle-12.5 -10743.5 -111-509+395
All 19 books
Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLRice ML
TOM-13.5 -10543 -115-530+380
Bally Bet-12 -11244.5 -107-625+430
BetAnything-13 -11043.5 -110-550+410
BetMGM-12 -11843.5 -110-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -10543 -115-530+403
betPARX-12 -11244.5 -107-625+430
BetRivers-12 -11244.5 -107-625+430
BetUS-13.5 -10543 -115-530+410
Bovada-12.5 -11043.5 -115-525+375
Caesars-13.5 -10443.5 -115-530+400
Courtside—63.5 -1191-515+413
DraftKings-12.5 -11243.5 -115-535+400
FanDuel-13.5 +10043.5 -110-600+430
Fliff-12.5 -12043.5 -120-580+405
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11043.5 -115-650+450
LowVig.ag-13.5 -10143 -114-530+403
MyBookie.ag-13 -11044 -110-589+409
Pinnacle-12.5 -10743.5 -111-509+395
theScore Bet-12.5 -11043.5 -105-650+425

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +13.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rice): DraftKings +12.5 at -108 (-3.2%) · TOM +13.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · Caesars +13.5 at -117 (-3.8%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (-4.7%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -122 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Rice to win · +430 at FanDuel
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Rice to win): FanDuel +430 (-0.4%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +400 (-1.5%) · TOM +380 (-2.3%).
Off the band
the Over 43.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 43 at -115 (-3.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Rice). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus.

TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.5-616
FPI-15.0-547
Sagarin-14.5-511
Massey-15.5-555
Market (18 books)-13.5-507
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.041.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRice Owls +13.5-115-100-3.4%
MoneylineRice Owls ML+430+441priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 43.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Rice Owls since 09-20 18:04; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -12.6 consensus; total 43.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida International
CFB 5:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Long Island University than the bookmore Florida International →
Market
Florida International by 37.5TOM, -110
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Florida International by 36.5now Florida International by 37.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLLong Island University ML
TOM-37.5 -11054 -110——
Kalshi—54.5 -103 49¢—+3021 3¢
Pinnacle-37.5 -10554.5 -107——
All 16 books
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLLong Island University ML
TOM-37.5 -11054 -110——
Kalshi—54.5 -103 49¢—+3021 3¢
Bally Bet-37.5 -11253.5 -113——
BetMGM-37 -11054.5 -105——
BetOnline.ag-37.5 -11054 -110——
betPARX-37.5 -11253.5 -113——
BetRivers-37.5 -11253.5 -113——
Bovada-37.5 -10554 -115——
Courtside-37.5 -10654.5 -103—+1878
DraftKings-37.5 -10854.5 -105—+1700
FanDuel-37.5 -11053.5 -115——
Fliff-37.5 -11553.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-37.5 -11053.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-37.5 -11054 -110——
Pinnacle-37.5 -10554.5 -107——
theScore Bet-37.5 -11053.5 -110——

Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 23% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Florida International).

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Long Island University
FPIdoesn't rate Long Island University
Sagarindoesn't rate Long Island University
Masseyrates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales
Market (14 books)-37.5-4514
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0—

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Tomorrow

14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at Jaguars
GameThe call
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Patriots +3
should be Patriots +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2.5
A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 3TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
a pick'em3 pts our side
FPI
Jaguars by 2.50.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Jaguars by 12.2 pts our side
Massey
Jaguars by 12 pts our side
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 2.50.7 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Patriots. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jaguars by 2.5opened Jaguars by 3now Jaguars by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM
The Four
Massey
40.45.6 pts under the market
FPI
44.51.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.53.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 44.5now 46SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
TOM-3 -10446 -112-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢46.5 -107 50¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11745.5 -117-149+132
All 25 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
TOM-3 -10446 -112-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢46.5 -107 50¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetAnything-2.5 -12046 -110-155+135
BetMGM-2.5 -12546 -108-160+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -10446 -112-155+135
betPARX-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetRivers-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetUS-3 +10046 -110-155+134
Bovada-2.5 -12046 -110-150+130
Caesars-3 -10546 -112-154+130
Courtside—59.5 -641-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10246.5 -105-155+130
Fanatics-3 -10546 -110-155+130
FanDuel-2.5 -11845.5 -115-158+134
Fliff-2.5 -12545.5 -115-160+125
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10546 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10546 -110-150+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10546 -110-150+130
LowVig.ag-3 +10146 -109-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 +10046 -110-158+128
Pinnacle-2.5 -11745.5 -117-149+132
Polymarket-2.5 -11746.5 +100-150+144
ReBet-3 -11046 -110-154+131
theScore Bet-2.5 -12045.5 -115-150+130

Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or Fanatics +3 at -115 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +134 (2.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +130 (1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars or TOM 46 at -108 (1.1%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -115 (1.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 46 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 85°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfeloPK-100
FPI-2.5-128
Sagarin-1.0-104
Massey-1.0-105
Market (22 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots +3.0-116-123+1.5%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML+130+122+1.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-108-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Giants -2.5
should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Giants by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Giants by 4.51.8 pts our side
FPI
a pick'em2.6 pts against us
Sagarin
Giants by 4.52 pts our side
Massey
Giants by 4.52 pts our side
Nasty Number
Giants by 30.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Giants by 3opened Giants by 5.5now Giants by 2.5SatSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
37.5TOM
The Four
Massey
43.76.2 pts over the market
FPI
39.41.9 pts over the market
Weather
-3.417 mph wind, 94% chance of rain, takes 3.4 points off
Nasty Number
38.20.7 pts over the market
Under 37.5 is a weather call. 17 mph wind and 94% chance of rain, worth about 3.4 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.2opened 43now 37.5SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
TOM-2.5 -11037.5 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢37.5 -107 50¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10638.5 +103-135+120
All 25 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
TOM-2.5 -11037.5 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢37.5 -107 50¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11338 -112-141+117
BetAnything-2.5 -11038 -105-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -11538.5 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11038 -105-138+118
betPARX-2.5 -11338 -112-141+117
BetRivers-2.5 -11338 -112-141+117
BetUS-2 -11537 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11038 -105-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11337.5 -118-139+118
Courtside—55.5 -3640-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11037.5 -112-135+114
Fanatics-2.5 -11037.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11438.5 -106-138+118
Fliff-2.5 -11538.5 -110-140+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11038 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11038 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11038 -110-135+115
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10538 -102-138+118
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11037.5 -110-142+116
Pinnacle-2.5 -10638.5 +103-135+120
Polymarket-2.5 +10038.5 +108-127+122
ReBet-2 -12537.5 -110-139+118
theScore Bet-2.5 -11538.5 +100-135+115

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (0.0%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-0.2%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -115 (-0.4%).
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -138 at FanDuel
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -135 (1.2%) · Kalshi 56¢ (1.0%) · FanDuel, TOM or Caesars -138 (0.6%) · Fanatics -140 (0.3%) · BetMGM -145 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 37.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 3.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 37.5 at 50¢ (0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM 37.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 37.5 at -112 (-0.6%) · Caesars 37.5 at -118 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 38.5 at -106 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.2 consensus.

BetUS has the total at 37 while Pinnacle is at 38.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onGiants by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-192
FPIPK+100
Sagarin-4.5-197
Massey-4.5-197
Market (22 books)-2.5-132
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points37.538.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants -2.5-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-138-142+0.6%
TotalOver 37.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.4.

TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.2 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Steelers +3.5
should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 1.52.1 pts our side
FPI
Bengals by 21.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Bengals by 1.52 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em3.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bengals by 30.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 3opened Bengals by 3.5now Bengals by 3.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM
The Four
Massey
43.80.8 pts over the market
FPI
42.20.8 pts under the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
41.21.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.2opened 43.5now 43SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
TOM+3.5 -11543 -105+150-180
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢42.5 -107 50¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11543 +103+157-180
All 25 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
TOM+3.5 -11543 -105+150-180
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢42.5 -107 50¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11342.5 -109+160-195
BetAnything+3.5 -11542 -110+160-185
BetMGM+3.5 -11242.5 -110+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11543 -105+157-180
betPARX+3.5 -11342.5 -109+160-195
BetRivers+3.5 -11342.5 -109+160-195
BetUS+3.5 -11543 -105+155-180
Bovada+3.5 -12042.5 -110+155-180
Caesars+3.5 -11242.5 -110+157-190
Courtside—57.5 -586+157-181
DraftKings+3.5 -11242.5 -112+154-185
Fanatics+3.5 -11542.5 -110+150-180
FanDuel+3.5 -11842.5 -115+148-176
Fliff+3.5 -11542.5 -115+150-195
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11542.5 -110+155-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11542.5 -110+155-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11542.5 -110+155-185
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11643 -102+157-180
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11542.5 -110+150-186
Pinnacle+3.5 -11543 +103+157-180
Polymarket+3.5 -11342.5 -104+156-163
ReBet+3.5 -12042.5 -110+153-181
theScore Bet+3.5 -12042.5 -115+150-175

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +3.5 · -115 at Fanatics
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Steelers): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (0.9%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (0.2%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (-0.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-1.1%).
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +157 at Caesars
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Steelers to win): Caesars +157 (0.8%) · DraftKings +154 (0.3%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +150 (-0.3%) · FanDuel +148 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 39¢ (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-1.9%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-2.1%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+109
FPI+2.0+121
Sagarin+1.5+111
MasseyPK+100
Market (22 books)+3.5+157
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.041.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+157+152+0.8%
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +3.5-115-116+0.2%
TotalUnder 43.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at Bills
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Bills -7.5
should be Bills -7.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 7.5TOM, -101
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 8.51.1 pts our side
FPI
Bills by 91.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Bills by 5.51.9 pts against us
Massey
Bills by 91.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bills by 7.50.2 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Bills. Sagarin at Bills by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 7.5opened Bills by 7now Bills by 7.5SunTueWedThuFri

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
48.71.3 pts under the market
FPI
49.20.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.91.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 50now 50SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLChargers ML
TOM-7.5 -10150 -110-340+265
Pinnacle-7.5 +10350 -107-332+274
All 24 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLChargers ML
TOM-7.5 -10150 -110-340+265
Bally Bet-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetAnything-7 -11549.5 -110-350+280
BetMGM-7 -11050 -108-350+275
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -10150 -110-340+274
betPARX-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetRivers-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetUS-7.5 +10050 -110-340+275
Bovada-7 -11550 -110-340+270
Caesars-7 -11450 -110-335+265
Courtside—74.5 -2201-335+282
DraftKings-7 -11550.5 -102-345+275
Fanatics-7 -11550 -110-350+275
FanDuel-7.5 -10250.5 -105-370+295
Fliff-7.5 -10550.5 -105-415+290
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10550 -110-375+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7.5 -10550 -110-375+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7.5 -10550 -110-375+275
LowVig.ag-7.5 +10350 -107-340+274
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-7.5 +10350 -107-332+274
Polymarket-7.5 +10050.5-317+300
ReBet-7 -11050 -110-319+260
theScore Bet-7.5 +10050.5 -105-360+280

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -7.5 · -101 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): BetMGM -7 at -110 (1.0%) · TOM -7.5 at -101 (0.2%) · Caesars -7 at -114 (0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -7 at -115 (-0.1%).
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -340 at TOM
We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bills to win): Caesars -335 (-0.7%) · TOM -340 (-0.9%) · DraftKings -345 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -370 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · Caesars 50 at -109 (-1.7%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -118 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $90 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.

BetRivers still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-348
FPI-9.0-363
Sagarin-5.5-217
Massey-9.0-362
Market (22 books)-7.5-325
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -7.5-101-102+0.2%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-340-322-0.9%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Seahawks -8
should be Seahawks -8 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Seahawks by 8TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 91.1 pts our side
FPI
Seahawks by 91 pts our side
Sagarin
Seahawks by 71 pts against us
Massey
Seahawks by 113 pts our side
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 80.1 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Seahawks. Sagarin at Seahawks by 7 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 8opened Seahawks by 1.5now Seahawks by 7.5SatSunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM
The Four
Massey
44.54.5 pts over the market
FPI
44.24.2 pts over the market
Weather
-3.818 mph wind, 65% chance of rain, takes 3.8 points off
Nasty Number
40.50.5 pts over the market
Under 40 is a weather call. 18 mph wind and 65% chance of rain, worth about 3.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.5opened 41now 40SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
TOM+8 -11040 -115+280-370
Kalshi+7.5 -107 50¢39.5 -116 52¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
Pinnacle+7.5 -10240.5 +101+297-364
All 25 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
TOM+8 -11040 -115+280-370
Kalshi+7.5 -107 50¢39.5 -116 52¢+296 24¢-360 77¢
Bally Bet+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetAnything+8 -11040 -115+292-370
BetMGM+7.5 -10540 -120+300-375
BetOnline.ag+8 -11040 -115+296-370
betPARX+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetRivers+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetUS+9 -12540 -115+290-360
Bovada+8 -11040 -110+290-380
Caesars+7.5 -10840 -113+295-390
Courtside—58.5 -2509+319-383
DraftKings+7.5 -10240.5 -102+310-395
Fanatics+8 -11040.5 -105+290-375
FanDuel+7.5 -11540.5 -105+300-375
Fliff+7.5 -10540.5 -105+300-435
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -10540 -110+300-400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+7.5 -10540 -110+300-400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+7.5 -10540 -110+300-400
LowVig.ag+8 -10540 -113+296-370
MyBookie.ag+7.5 -11040 -110+295-391
Pinnacle+7.5 -10240.5 +101+297-364
Polymarket+7.5 +10039.5 -108+317-335
ReBet+8 -11040 -110+330-420
theScore Bet+7.5 -11039.5 -115+280-360

Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Seahawks): FanDuel -7.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Kalshi, Caesars or BetMGM -7.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -8 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings -7.5 at -118 (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -370 at TOM
We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 73. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): Kalshi 77¢ (-1.4%) · TOM -370 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -375 (-2.0%) · Caesars -390 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -395 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 44. Weather takes 3.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 40.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 40.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · Caesars 40 at -113 (-1.7%) · TOM 40 at -115 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 62°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.2 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $92 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+9.0+266
FPI+9.0+258
Sagarin+7.0+194
Massey+11.0+351
Market (22 books)+8.0+293
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.040.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -7.5-105-106+0.3%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-370-333-1.8%
TotalOver 40.0-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 20:59; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Texans -1.5
should be Texans -1.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Texans by 1.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 0.5
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
Texans by 0.5
Massey
Colts by 0.5
Nasty Number
Texans by 1.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 1.5opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 1.5MonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
49.57 pts over the market
FPI
43.81.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.64.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.6opened 44now 42.5MonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
TOM+1.5 -10542.5 -112+104-124
Kalshi+1.542.5 -112 51¢+105 47¢-126 54¢
Pinnacle+2 -11442.5 -103+108-121
All 25 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
TOM+1.5 -10542.5 -112+104-124
Kalshi+1.542.5 -112 51¢+105 47¢-126 54¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -10942.5 -113+107-130
BetAnything+1.5 -10542.5 -110+102-122
BetMGM+2 -11042.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10542.5 -112+104-124
betPARX+1.5 -10942.5 -113+107-130
BetRivers+1.5 -10942.5 -113+107-130
BetUS+1 -10542.5 -110+102-122
Bovada+1.5 -11042.5 -105+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -10542.5 -113+110-129
Courtside—60.5 -3233+107-122
DraftKings+1.5 -10242.5 -112+105-125
Fanatics+1.5 -11042.5 -110+105-125
FanDuel+1.5 -10542.5 -114+108-126
Fliff+1.5 -11042.5 -115+105-130
Hard Rock Bet+2 -11042.5 -110+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2 -11042.5 -110+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2 -11042.5 -110+105-125
LowVig.ag+1.5 +10042.5 -109+104-124
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11042.5 -110+103-126
Pinnacle+2 -11442.5 -103+108-121
Polymarket+1.5 -10442.5 +100+108-113
ReBet+2 -11042.5 -110+105-123
theScore Bet+1.5 -10542.5 -105+110-130

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +1.5 · -105 at Caesars
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +1.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +2 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars, FanDuel or TOM +1.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +110 at Caesars
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Colts to win): Caesars +110 (0.2%) · FanDuel +108 (-0.3%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-0.9%) · TOM +104 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -112 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM 42.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Caesars 42.5 at -113 (0.7%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -114 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).

Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +1.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+101
FPIPK-100
Sagarin+0.5+102
Massey-0.5-101
Market (22 books)+1.5+109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.546.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+110+109+0.2%
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +1.5-105-101-0.9%
TotalOver 42.5-112-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers
NFL tomorrow 3:05pm
49ers -9
should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 9TOM, -103
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 11.52.7 pts our side
FPI
49ers by 14.55.7 pts our side
Sagarin
49ers by 133.9 pts our side
Massey
49ers by 9on the market
Nasty Number
49ers by 9.50.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 9.5opened 49ers by 9now 49ers by 9SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
45.52.5 pts under the market
FPI
50.22.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.8opened 48now 48SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9 -10348 -110-400+310
Kalshi-7.5 -116 52¢48.5 +101 48¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-8.5 +10147.5 -116-374+304
All 25 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9 -10348 -110-400+310
Kalshi-7.5 -116 52¢48.5 +101 48¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Bally Bet-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetAnything-8.5 -11048 -110-425+325
BetMGM-8 -11848 -108-425+320
BetOnline.ag-9 -10348 -110-400+316
betPARX-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetRivers-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetUS-9 -10548 -110-400+320
Bovada-8 -11048 -110-390+295
Caesars-8 -11547.5 -112-410+325
Courtside—60.5 -614-426+350
DraftKings-8.5 -10847.5 -115-440+340
Fanatics-8 -11048 -110-400+310
FanDuel-8.5 -11047.5 -118-450+350
Fliff-8.5 -11048.5 -105-490+330
Hard Rock Bet-8 -11547.5 -115-425+325
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-8 -11547.5 -115-425+325
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-8 -11547.5 -115-425+325
LowVig.ag-8.5 +10148 -103-400+316
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11048 -110-429+320
Pinnacle-8.5 +10147.5 -116-374+304
Polymarket-7.5 -10847.5 -113-376+355
ReBet-8.5 -11047.5 -120-410+330
theScore Bet-8 -11547.5 -120-425+320

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -9.0 · -103 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -7.5 at 52¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM -9 at -103 (0.1%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · Caesars -8 at -115 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
49ers to win · -400 at Fanatics
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (49ers to win): Kalshi 78¢ (-0.1%) · Fanatics or TOM -400 (-0.8%) · Caesars -410 (-1.2%) · BetMGM -425 (-1.8%) · DraftKings -440 (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 53¢ (-2.5%) · Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Also out: Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Polymarket still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-11.5-451
FPI-14.5-649
Sagarin-13.0-497
Massey-9.0-356
Market (22 books)-9.0-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -9.0-103-103+0.1%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-400-380-0.8%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Panthers -2
should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Panthers by 2TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
Panthers by 2.5
FPI
Panthers by 3
Sagarin
Panthers by 2
Massey
Browns by 0.5
Nasty Number
Panthers by 2.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Panthers by 2.5opened Panthers by 3now Panthers by 2SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42TOM
The Four
Massey
43.91.9 pts over the market
FPI
39.42.6 pts under the market
Weather
-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off
Nasty Number
40.21.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.2opened 41now 42SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
TOM+2 -10842 -115+120-140
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+114 45¢-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -11642 -110+113-127
All 25 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
TOM+2 -10842 -115+120-140
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+114 45¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -11042 -113+117-141
BetAnything+2 -11042.5 -110+120-140
BetMGM+2.5 -11242 -110+115-140
BetOnline.ag+2 -10842 -115+120-140
betPARX+2.5 -11042 -113+117-141
BetRivers+2.5 -11042.5 -108+117-141
BetUS+2 -10542.5 -110+112-132
Bovada+2 -11542 -115+110-130
Caesars+2.5 -10842.5 -106+118-139
Courtside—54.5 -632+122-139
DraftKings+2.5 -10842.5 -110+120-142
Fanatics+2 -11042 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -11241.5 -115+110-130
Fliff+2.5 -11042.5 -110+120-150
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11042 -110+120-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -11042 -110+120-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -11042 -110+120-140
LowVig.ag+2 -10342 -113+120-140
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11042.5 -110+113-138
Pinnacle+2.5 -11642 -110+113-127
Polymarket+1.542.5 +104+122-127
ReBet+2.5 -10942.5 -110+115-136
theScore Bet+2.5 -11041.5 -110+115-135

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers -2.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Panthers): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-0.6%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-0.7%) · TOM -2 at -112 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars -2.5 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · -130 at FanDuel
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Panthers to win): FanDuel or Kalshi -130 (-0.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -139 (-2.4%) · DraftKings -142 (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 42.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM 42 at -105 (0.2%) · Kalshi 42.5 at 51¢ (0.2%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-0.3%) · BetMGM 42 at -108 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Browns).

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +1.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

Polymarket still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.

Full detail
We settle onPanthers by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.5+135
FPI+3.0+147
Sagarin+2.0+115
Massey-0.5-100
Market (22 books)+2.0+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.040.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers -2.0-112-107-1.2%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML-130-126-0.7%
TotalUnder 42.0-105-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Cleveland Browns since 09-19 17:31; total has moved up 2.6.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at Lions
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Lions -6.5
should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Lions →
Market
Lions by 6.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 9
FPI
Lions by 8
Sagarin
Lions by 8.5
Massey
Lions by 8.5
Nasty Number
Lions by 70.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 7opened Lions by 6.5now Lions by 6.5SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.41.4 pts over the market
FPI
47.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.40.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 48now 48SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLJets ML
TOM-6.5 -11648 -115-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢48.5 -107 50¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
Pinnacle-7 +10748 -109-295+248
All 25 books
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLJets ML
TOM-6.5 -11648 -115-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -116 52¢48.5 -107 50¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
Bally Bet-7 -10648 -113-335+255
BetAnything-6.5 -11548 -115-300+240
BetMGM-6.5 -11248 -108-300+240
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11648 -115-300+245
betPARX-7 -10648 -113-335+255
BetRivers-7 -10648 -113-335+255
BetUS-6.5 -11548 -115-300+250
Bovada-6.5 -11548 -110-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -11748.5 -107-320+250
Courtside—66.5 -2201-297+251
DraftKings-6.5 -12048.5 -108-305+245
Fanatics-6.5 -11548 -110-300+240
FanDuel-6.5 -11548.5 -106-310+250
Fliff-6.5 -12048.5 -105-345+245
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11548 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6.5 -11548 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6.5 -11548 -110-325+250
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11248 -113-300+245
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11048 -110-300+234
Pinnacle-7 +10748 -109-295+248
Polymarket-6.5 -10848.5 -104-270+257
ReBet-6.5 -12048 -110-295+240
theScore Bet-6.5 -11548.5 -105-290+240

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -6.5 · -116 (52¢) at Kalshi
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): BetMGM -6.5 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (0.0%) · TOM -6.5 at -116 (-0.2%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (-0.4%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -120 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -300 at BetMGM
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Lions to win): Kalshi 73¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -300 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -305 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -310 (-0.9%) · Caesars -320 (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.5%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-2.6%) · Caesars or Kalshi 48.5 at -107 (-2.8%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -108 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $118 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-366
FPI-8.0-325
Sagarin-8.5-351
Massey-8.5-337
Market (22 books)-6.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -6.5-116-115-0.2%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-300-296-0.3%
TotalOver 48.0-115-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Chiefs -10.5
should be Chiefs -10.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →
Market
Chiefs by 10.5TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 9.5
FPI
Chiefs by 10.5
Sagarin
Chiefs by 9.5
Massey
Chiefs by 4.5
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 10.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 10.5opened Chiefs by 11.5now Chiefs by 10.5MonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
Massey
43.91.6 pts under the market
FPI
45.3on the market
Nasty Number
44.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.6opened 46now 45.5MonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
TOM+10.5 -11345.5 -105——
Kalshi+10.5 -112 51¢45.5 -103 49¢+530 15¢-660 86¢
Pinnacle+11.5 -13345 -110+529-729
All 25 books
Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
TOM+10.5 -11345.5 -105——
Kalshi+10.5 -112 51¢45.5 -103 49¢+530 15¢-660 86¢
Bally Bet+10.5 -11245 -112+500-715
BetAnything+10.5 -11045 -110+500-700
BetMGM+10.5 -11245 -110+500-650
BetOnline.ag+10.5 -11345.5 -105+476-650
betPARX+10.5 -11245 -112+500-715
BetRivers+10.5 -11245 -112+500-715
BetUS+10.5 -11045 -110+500-700
Bovada+10 -11045 -115+500-750
Caesars+10.5 -11445.5 -106+475-675
Courtside—66.5 -2433+471-600
DraftKings+10 -10845.5 -108+455-625
Fanatics+10.5 -11545.5 -110+500-700
FanDuel+10.5 -10845.5 -105+500-700
Fliff+10.5 -11045.5 -110+510-860
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11045.5 -110+500-750
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+10.5 -11045.5 -110+500-750
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+10.5 -11045.5 -110+500-750
LowVig.ag+10.5 -11445.5 -102+476-650
MyBookie.ag+10.5 -11045 -110+483-728
Pinnacle+11.5 -13345 -110+529-729
Polymarket+10.5 -11344.5+525-567
ReBet+10.5 -11045 -110+440-599
theScore Bet+10.5 -11045.5 -105+475-750

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -10.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): DraftKings -10 at -112 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -10.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars -10.5 at -106 (-1.4%) · TOM or Kalshi -10.5 at -107 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -625 at DraftKings
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -625 (-5.0%) · BetMGM or Kalshi -650 (-5.5%) · Caesars -675 (-5.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -700 (-6.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · Caesars 45.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 45 at -108 (-2.0%) · FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi 45.5 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

DraftKings still has Chiefs -10.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+9.5+374
FPI+10.5+429
Sagarin+9.5+384
Massey+4.5+193
Market (22 books)+10.5+640
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.544.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -10.5-107-100-1.6%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-625-432priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers
NFL tomorrow 3:05pm
Vikings -1.5
should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Vikings by 1.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 0.5
FPI
Vikings by 0.5
Sagarin
Vikings by 0.5
Massey
Vikings by 2
Nasty Number
Vikings by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 1opened Vikings by 2.5now Vikings by 1.5SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
43.71.2 pts over the market
FPI
41.21.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.4on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.4opened 43now 42.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
TOM+1.5 -11642.5 -110—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
Pinnacle+2 -11743 +103+105-118
All 25 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
TOM+1.5 -11642.5 -110—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -11042.5 -109+102-124
BetAnything+1.5 -11542.5 -110+100-120
BetMGM+1 -11042.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -11642.5 -110+100-120
betPARX+1.5 -11042.5 -109+102-124
BetRivers+1.5 -11042.5 -109+102-124
BetUSPK +10042.5 -110——
Bovada+1 -10542.5 -105+100-120
Caesars+1.5 -11342.5 -109+105-124
Courtside—52.5 -383+102-118
DraftKings+1.5 -11242.5 -110+100-120
Fanatics+1.5 -11042.5 -110+100-120
FanDuel+1.5 -11042.5 -115+106-124
Fliff+1.5 -11542.5 -115+100-125
Hard Rock Bet+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
LowVig.ag+1.5 -11242.5 -107+100-120
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11042.5 -110+101-123
Pinnacle+2 -11743 +103+105-118
Polymarket+1.5 -10842.5 +100+108-113
ReBet+1.5 -11042.5 -110+102-120
theScore Bet+1.5 -11542.5 -110+105-125

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel or Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -112 (-2.2%) · Caesars +1.5 at -113 (-2.4%) · BetMGM +1 at -110 (-2.9%) · Kalshi or TOM +1.5 at -116 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · +102
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel +106 (-0.4%) · Caesars or BetMGM +105 (-0.6%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Fanatics +101 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 42.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -115 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Vikings).

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 7 more.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+102
FPI+0.5+101
Sagarin+0.5+101
Massey+2.0+120
Market (22 books)+1.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.542.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+102+108-1.4%
TotalOver 42.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutral
Ravens -3
should be Ravens -3 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Ravens by 3TOM, +103
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 2
FPI
Ravens by 1
Sagarin
Ravens by 1.5
Massey
Ravens by 4
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 3opened Ravens by 3now Ravens by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
Massey
52.41.1 pts under the market
FPI
52.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 52now 53.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
TOM+3 +10353.5 -110+152-182
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11653 -114+155-176
All 25 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
TOM+3 +10353.5 -110+152-182
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetAnything+3.5 -12053.5 -110+157-182
BetMGM+3.5 -11553.5 -108+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3 +10353.5 -110+159-182
betPARX+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetRivers+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetUS+3.5 -12053.5 -110+155-180
Bovada+3.5 -12053.5 -110+155-180
Caesars+3.5 -11453.5 -107+149-176
Courtside—74.5 -4336+143-163
DraftKings+3 -10253.5 -108+140-166
Fanatics+3.5 -12053 -110+150-180
FanDuel+3.5 -11852.5 -114+150-178
Fliff+3.5 -12053.5 -110+140-180
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11553.5 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11553.5 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11553.5 -110+150-180
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11553.5 -107+159-182
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -12053.5 -110+153-190
Pinnacle+3.5 -11653 -114+155-176
Polymarket+3.5 -11353.5 +104+156-163
ReBet+3.5 -12053.5 -110+149-177
theScore Bet+3.5 -11552.5 -115+155-185

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -118 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings -3 at -118 (-2.8%) · Fanatics -3.5 at +100 (-3.1%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-3.6%) · TOM -3 at -123 (-3.9%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 49¢ (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -166 at DraftKings
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -166 (-1.6%) · Caesars -176 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -178 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -180 (-3.5%) · TOM or Kalshi -182 (-3.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 53.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (-1.6%) · Fanatics 53 at -110 (-2.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

DraftKings still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+119
FPI+1.0+107
Sagarin+1.5+113
Massey+4.0+188
Market (22 books)+3.0+159
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -3.0-118-105-2.8%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-166-155-1.6%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
Saints -3
should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 3TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
Saints by 3
FPI
Saints by 4.5
Sagarin
Saints by 3.5
Massey
Saints by 3.5
Nasty Number
Saints by 3.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Saints by 3.5opened Saints by 3now Saints by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
40.53 pts under the market
FPI
41.22.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.8opened 43.5now 43.5SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
TOM-3 -12043.5 -115-177+147
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢43.5 -116 52¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10644 +101-176+154
All 25 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
TOM-3 -12043.5 -115-177+147
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢43.5 -116 52¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
Bally Bet-3 -11744 -110-177+145
BetAnything-3 -12043.5 -110-175+151
BetMGM-3 -11844 -110-175+145
BetOnline.ag-3 -12043.5 -115-177+155
betPARX-3 -11744 -110-177+145
BetRivers-3 -11744 -110-177+145
BetUS-3 -12043.5 -115-175+150
Bovada-3 -12043.5 -110-180+155
Caesars-3 -11843.5 -112-173+147
Courtside—58.5 -1501-181+157
DraftKings-3 -12243.5 -118-185+154
Fanatics-3.5 +10043.5 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3 -12043.5 -112-180+152
Fliff-3.5 +10043.5 -120-185+145
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10543.5 -115-180+150
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3.5 -10543.5 -115-180+150
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3.5 -10543.5 -115-180+150
LowVig.ag-3.5 +10743.5 -113-177+155
MyBookie.ag-3 -12044 -110-173+140
Pinnacle-3.5 +10644 +101-176+154
Polymarket-3.5 +10843.5 -104-163+156
ReBet-3.5 -10943.5 -110-178+150
theScore Bet-3.5 -10543.5 -110-185+155

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -120 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars or BetMGM -3 at -118 (-0.4%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -3.5 at +101 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or TOM -3 at -120 (-0.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -122 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Saints to win · -177 at TOM
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Saints to win): Caesars -173 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -175 (-0.8%) · TOM -177 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -180 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -185 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (0.1%) · TOM 43.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · Caesars or FanDuel 43.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-158
FPI-4.5-191
Sagarin-3.5-177
Massey-3.5-174
Market (22 books)-3.0-169
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.540.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints -3.0-120-116-0.8%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML-177-169-1.0%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos
NFL tomorrow 7:20pm
Rams -2
should be Rams -2 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Rams by 2TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 1.5
FPI
Rams by 3
Sagarin
Rams by 2.5
Massey
Rams by 1.5
Nasty Number
Rams by 20.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 2opened Rams by 2.5now Rams by 2SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
41.52 pts under the market
FPI
42.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
421.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42opened 45.5now 43.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
TOM+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -11044 -107+116-131
All 25 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
TOM+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2 -11244 -114+107-129
BetAnything+2.5 -11044 -110+115-135
BetMGM+2 -10844 -108+110-135
BetOnline.ag+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
betPARX+2 -11244 -114+107-129
BetRivers+2 -11244 -114+107-129
BetUS+2 -10544 -110+115-135
Bovada+2 -10544 -110+115-135
Caesars+2.5 -11444 -112+113-134
Courtside—65.5 -2584+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11544.5 -102+110-130
Fanatics+2.5 -11544 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11844.5 -105+108-126
Fliff+2.5 -11544.5 -110+110-140
Hard Rock Bet+2 -11044 -110+110-130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2 -11044 -110+110-130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2 -11044 -110+110-130
LowVig.ag+2 -10443.5 -113+113-133
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11044 -110+111-135
Pinnacle+2.5 -11044 -107+116-131
Polymarket+1.5 +10444.5+117-122
ReBet+2.5 -11044.5 -109+113-133
theScore Bet+1.5 -11543.5 -120+110-130

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -2.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-1.5%) · BetMGM -2 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -2.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Rams to win · -126 at FanDuel
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Rams to win): FanDuel -126 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.7%) · TOM or Caesars -133 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -135 (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 44 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (-0.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -118 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, only $34 available; Over 44.5, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.1 consensus.

theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+113
FPI+3.0+144
Sagarin+2.5+122
Massey+1.5+114
Market (22 books)+2.0+118
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.542.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Rams -2.0-113-103-2.3%
MoneylineLos Angeles Rams ML-126-121-0.9%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 28

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears
NFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pm
Eagles -3.5
should be Eagles -3.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Eagles by 3.5TOM, -117
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 3.5
FPI
Eagles by 4
Sagarin
Eagles by 0.5
Massey
Eagles by 1.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 3.5opened Eagles by 3.5now Eagles by 3.5SunTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42TOM
The Four
Massey
44.22.2 pts over the market
FPI
41.9on the market
Nasty Number
43.11.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 44now 42SunTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -11742 -115+151-181
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢42.5 -103 49¢+159 37¢-191 64¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11742.5 +103+159-178
All 24 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -11742 -115+151-181
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢42.5 -103 49¢+159 37¢-191 64¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11042 -109+155-190
BetAnything+3 +10042 -110+155-180
BetMGM—42 -110+155-185
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11742 -115+158-181
betPARX+3.5 -11042 -109+155-190
BetRivers+3.5 -11042 -109+155-190
Bovada+3 +10042 -110+155-180
Caesars+3.5 -11542.5 -106+154-182
Courtside—53.5 -525+163-188
DraftKings+3.5 -11042.5 -105+160-192
Fanatics+3.5 -11542 -110+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -11542.5 -105+148-178
Fliff+3.5 -11541.5 -110+160-210
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11542 -110+150-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11542 -110+150-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11542 -110+150-185
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11342 -113+158-181
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11042 -110+154-190
Pinnacle+3.5 -11742.5 +103+159-178
Polymarket+3.5 -113—+170-178
ReBet+3.5 -12042.5 -110+156-185
theScore Bet+3.5 -11542.5 -105+150-175

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (-3.1%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (-3.5%).
Not Nasty
Bears to win · +160 at DraftKings
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings +160 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 37¢ (-2.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +155 (-2.5%) · TOM +151 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +148 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 49¢ (-0.8%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -106 (-1.5%) · TOM 42 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).

Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $1 available; Philadelphia Eagles -3.5, only $203 available; Over 41.5, only $176 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.5+104
FPI+4.0+112
Sagarin+0.5-118
Massey+1.5-108
Market (21 books)+3.5+158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.043.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears +3.5-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML+160+172-1.7%
TotalOver 42.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Oct 1

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns
NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm
Browns +3
should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Steelers by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 3
FPI
Steelers by 1.5
Sagarin
Steelers by 2
Massey
Steelers by 1
Nasty Number
Steelers by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 2opened Steelers by 3now Steelers by 3WedFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
37.5
The Four
Massey
36.90.8 pts under the market
FPI
35.22.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
361.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 36opened 37.5now 37.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢37.5—-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
All 14 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢37.5—-143 57¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10437.5 -110+118-143
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
betPARX+2.5 -10437.5 -110+118-143
BetRivers+2.5 -10437.5 -110+118-143
BetUS+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
Caesars+2.5 -10837.5 -113+119-139
Courtside+3 -11838.5 -108+127-145
DraftKings+3 -12038.5 -110+124-148
FanDuel+2.5 -11037.5 -105+114-134
Fliff+2.5 -11037.5 -110+115-145
LowVig.ag+1.5 +10037.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11037.5 -110+114-146
ReBet+2.5 -10537.5 -110+119-140

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +124 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Browns to win): DraftKings +124 (0.6%) · Caesars +119 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +114 (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 37.5 · -110
Massey projects 37 and FPI projects 35. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 38.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars 37.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 37.5 at -115 (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 36% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 37.5, only $73 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $260 available; Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.0+151
FPI+1.5+113
Sagarin+2.0+121
Massey+1.0+105
Market (13 books)+2.5+131
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points37.536.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +3.0-120-125+0.9%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+124+121+0.6%
TotalUnder 37.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 2

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Virginia Tech -6
no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →
Market
Virginia Tech by 6
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Massey
hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Virginia Tech by 6.5now Virginia Tech by 6.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.82.7 pts under the market
Massey
53.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.53 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.5opened 56.5now 56.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
Kalshi-6.556.5——
All 4 books
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
Kalshi-6.556.5——
Courtside-6 -10856.5 -108-213+184
DraftKings-6 -11056.5 -110-218+180
Fliff—56.5 -115-225+175

Marked: best for the Virginia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 53¢ (-3.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -6.5, only $59 available; Over 56.5, only $52 available; Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
FPIhasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Masseyhasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game
Market (3 books)-6.0-201
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.553.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
TotalUnder 56.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sun Oct 4

12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral
Colts -4.5
should be Colts -4.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Colts by 4.5
The Four
nfelo
Colts by 5.5
FPI
Colts by 4.5
Sagarin
Colts by 2.5
Massey
Colts by 4
Nasty Number
Colts by 4.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
52.56.4 pts over the market
FPI
46.90.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.73.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag+4 -11546 -110——
All 12 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
Bally Bet+4.5 -10846 -113+180-225
BetOnline.ag+4 -11546 -110——
betPARX+4.5 -10846 -113+180-225
BetRivers+4.5 -10846 -113+180-225
BetUS+4.5 -11045.5 -110——
Caesars+4.5 -10646.5 -104——
DraftKings+4.5 -11046.5 -110+170-205
FanDuel+4.5 -10546.5 -104+190-230
LowVig.ag+4 -11046 -107——
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11046 -110+173-226
Polymarket———-245
ReBet+4.5 -11046.5 -109+177-222

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts -4.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · Caesars -4.5 at -114 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -4.5 at -115 (-3.7%).
Not Nasty
Colts to win · -205 at DraftKings
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Colts to win): DraftKings -205 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -230 (-3.8%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 53 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or FanDuel 46.5 at -104 (0.2%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -110 (-1.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $431 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $14 available; Washington Commanders +4.5, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail
We settle onColts by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.5+139
FPI+4.5+118
Sagarin+2.5+100
Massey+4.0+111
Market (11 books)+4.5+202
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.049.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts -4.5-110+101-2.6%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML-205-193-1.3%
TotalOver 46.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Giants -2.5
should be Giants -2.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Giants by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Giants by 5
FPI
Giants by 0.5
Sagarin
Giants by 7
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
Giants by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
Massey
44.20.7 pts over the market
FPI
41.61.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.90.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
Kalshi————
All 9 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
Bally Bet-2.5 -11743.5 -112-141+117
betPARX-2.5 -11743.5 -112-141+117
BetRivers-2.5 -11743.5 -112-141+117
BetUS-1.5 -11044 -110——
Caesars-2.5 -11043.5 -110-139+118
DraftKings-2.5 -11043.5 -110-135+114
FanDuel-2.5 -11043.5 -115-136+116
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11043.5 -110-142+111
ReBet-2.5 -12043.5 -110-139+113

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -140 at Caesars
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings or FanDuel -135 (-1.8%) · Caesars -139 (-2.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars 43.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New York Giants ML, only $7 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $285 available; New York Giants -2.5, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.

Full detail
We settle onGiants by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-205
FPI-0.5-101
Sagarin-7.0-298
MasseyPK-100
Market (9 books)-2.5-127
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.542.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants -2.5-110-100-2.4%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-140-126-2.7%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Ravens -10.5
should be Ravens -10.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 10.5
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 11
FPI
Ravens by 11
Sagarin
Ravens by 10.5
Massey
Ravens by 11
Nasty Number
Ravens by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
Massey
46.61.9 pts over the market
FPI
45.30.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
461.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag-10 -10445 -110——
All 11 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
Bally Bet-10 -11444.5 -110-670+460
BetOnline.ag-10 -10445 -110——
betPARX-10 -11444.5 -110-670+460
BetRivers-10 -11444.5 -110-670+460
BetUS-10.5 -11045 -110——
Caesars-10.5 -11044.5 -114-625+450
DraftKings-10.5 -11044.5 -110-575+425
FanDuel-10.5 -11044.5 -118-700+500
LowVig.ag-10 +10145 -107——
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11045 -110-676+430
ReBet-10.5 -11044.5 -120-649+450

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -10.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel -10.5 at -110 (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -575 at DraftKings
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings -575 (-4.1%) · Caesars -625 (-5.2%) · FanDuel -700 (-6.5%).
Off the band
the Over 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 44.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -118 (-2.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Baltimore Ravens ML, only $350 available; Tennessee Titans ML, only $170 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $332 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 10.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-11.0-440
FPI-11.0-435
Sagarin-10.5-421
Massey-11.0-437
Market (11 books)-10.5-578
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.546.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -10.5-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-575-428priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 44.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bills -5.5
should be Bills -5.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 5
FPI
Bills by 5.5
Sagarin
Bills by 3.5
Massey
Bills by 4
Nasty Number
Bills by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
Massey
47.32.5 pts under the market
FPI
50.81 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.10.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
Kalshi——-263 71¢—
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10550 -110——
All 13 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
Kalshi——-263 71¢—
Bally Bet-5.5 -11249.5 -113-265+210
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10550 -110——
betPARX-5.5 -11249.5 -113-265+210
BetRivers-5.5 -11249.5 -113-265+210
BetUS-5.5 -11050.5 -110——
Caesars-5.5 -11049.5 -115-260+210
DraftKings-5.5 -11049.5 -110-250+205
FanDuel-5.5 -11550.5 -104-260+215
LowVig.ag-5.5 +10050 -107——
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11050 -110-250+189
Polymarket——-270—
ReBet-5.5 -11049.5 -120-244+194

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +5.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): FanDuel +5.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · +210 at Caesars
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Patriots to win): FanDuel +215 (-0.2%) · Caesars +210 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +205 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · Caesars 49.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $295 available; Buffalo Bills -5.5, only $398 available; New England Patriots +5.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-206
FPI-5.5-224
Sagarin-3.5-171
Massey-4.0-184
Market (11 books)-5.5-234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots +5.5-105-101-1.0%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML+210+217-0.7%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bears -3
should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 3.5
FPI
Bears by 1
Sagarin
Bears by 6.5
Massey
Bears by 4.5
Nasty Number
Bears by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3.5opened Bears by 3now Bears by 3Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
Massey
43.1on the market
FPI
40.13.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.61.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 43.5now 43.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag-3 -11043 -110——
All 11 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Bally Bet-3.5 -11043.5 -110-182+150
BetOnline.ag-3 -11043 -110——
betPARX-3.5 -11043.5 -110-182+150
BetRivers-3.5 -11043.5 -110-182+150
BetUS-3 -11043 -110——
Caesars-3 -10943.5 -106——
DraftKings-3 -11543.5 -110-166+140
FanDuel-3.5 -11043.5 -105-190+160
LowVig.ag-3 -10543 -107——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11043.5 -110-186+144
ReBet-3.5 -10943.5 -110-182+147

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bears): Caesars -3 at -109 (0.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -115 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -110 (-4.4%).
Not Nasty
Bears to win · -166 at DraftKings
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Bears to win): DraftKings -166 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -190 (-3.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Caesars 43.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $287 available; New York Jets ML, only $390 available; Chicago Bears ML, only $176 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 1 more.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-234
FPI-1.0-167
Sagarin-6.5-360
Massey-4.5-298
Market (11 books)-3.0-166
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.541.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears -3.0-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML-166-162-0.6%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Jaguars +3
should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 3.5
FPI
Bengals by 1
Sagarin
Bengals by 2.5
Massey
Bengals by 1
Nasty Number
Bengals by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
Massey
47.62.6 pts under the market
FPI
47.42.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
47.52.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
Kalshi——-155 59¢—
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12550.5 -110——
All 13 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
Kalshi——-155 59¢—
Bally Bet-2.5 -11850 -114-152+125
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12550.5 -110——
betPARX-2.5 -11850 -114-152+125
BetRivers-2.5 -11850 -114-152+125
BetUS-2.5 -12549.5 -110——
Caesars—50.5 -106——
DraftKings-3 -11049.5 -110-166+140
FanDuel-2.5 -11550.5 -118-144+122
LowVig.ag-2.5 -12150.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11050.5 -110-157+123
Polymarket——-150—
ReBet-2.5 -13350.5 -110-154+125

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +140 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): DraftKings +140 (3.0%) · FanDuel +122 (-0.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110
Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -104 (1.7%) · Caesars 50.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $297 available; Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, only $463 available; Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-166
FPI-1.0-106
Sagarin-2.5-123
Massey-1.0-106
Market (11 books)-2.5-140
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.047.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +3.0-110-122+2.5%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+140+124+3.0%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Cowboys +3
should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 3
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 2
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
Texans by 1
Massey
Texans by 3
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
Massey
49.62 pts over the market
FPI
47.30.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.40.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
Kalshi——-155 59¢—
BetOnline.ag-3 -10547.5 -110——
All 12 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
Kalshi——-155 59¢—
Bally Bet-2.5 -11847.5 -112-152+125
BetOnline.ag-3 -10547.5 -110——
betPARX-2.5 -11847.5 -112-152+125
BetRivers-2.5 -11847.5 -112-152+125
BetUS-3 -10548 -110——
Caesars-3 -10647.5 -110——
DraftKings-3 -11047.5 -110-162+136
FanDuel-2.5 -11547.5 -105-146+124
LowVig.ag-3 +10047.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11047.5 -110-159+124
ReBet-2.5 -13347.5 -110-156+127

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +3 at -110 (2.1%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.4%).
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · +136 at DraftKings
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): DraftKings +136 (1.8%) · FanDuel +124 (-0.4%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.5 · -110
Massey projects 50 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -110 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $14 available; Over 47.5, only $2 available; Under 47.5, only $137 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.0-119
FPIPK+100
Sagarin-1.0-105
Massey-3.0-149
Market (11 books)-3.0-141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.548.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDallas Cowboys +3.0-110-120+2.1%
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML+136+126+1.8%
TotalOver 47.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Eagles +3
should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Rams by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 1
FPI
Rams by 1
Sagarin
Rams by 1.5
Massey
Rams by 0.5
Nasty Number
Rams by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
44.12 pts under the market
FPI
45.30.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.71.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag+2.5 +10046 -110——
All 12 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Bally Bet+2.5 -10846.5 -110+114-143
BetOnline.ag+2.5 +10046 -110——
betPARX+2.5 -10846.5 -110+114-143
BetRivers+2.5 -10846.5 -110+114-143
BetUS+2.5 +10046 -110——
Caesars—46.5 -102+122-145
DraftKings+1.5 -10545.5 -110+114-135
FanDuel+3 -11846.5 -104+128-152
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10546 -107——
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11046 -110+116-148
Polymarket———-156
ReBet+2.5 -10545.5 -120+118-145

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel +3 at -118 (1.9%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · +128 at FanDuel
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +128 (2.0%) · Caesars +122 (0.8%) · DraftKings +114 (-0.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -118 (-1.7%) · Caesars 46.5 at -120 (-2.2%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $376 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $183 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $381 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams), Kamren Kinchens (S, Rams) and 1 more.

Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0+107
FPI+1.0+107
Sagarin+1.5+113
Massey+0.5+101
Market (11 books)+2.5+131
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles +3.0-118-128+1.9%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML+128+118+2.0%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm
Vikings -10.5
should be Vikings -10.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 10.5
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 12
FPI
Vikings by 11.5
Sagarin
Vikings by 11.5
Massey
Vikings by 9
Nasty Number
Vikings by 10.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
40.81.9 pts under the market
FPI
40.32.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.52.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag-10 -12042.5 -110——
All 11 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
Bally Bet-10.5 -10843 -110-625+440
BetOnline.ag-10 -12042.5 -110——
betPARX-10.5 -10843 -110-625+440
BetRivers-10.5 -10843 -110-625+440
BetUS-10.5 -11042 -110——
Caesars—42.5 -114——
DraftKings-10.5 -11042.5 -110-700+500
FanDuel-10.5 -10243.5 -105-560+420
LowVig.ag-10 -11642.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11042.5 -110-676+430
ReBet-10.5 -11042.5 -120-649+450

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.5 · -102 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -110 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
Vikings to win · -560 at FanDuel
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel -560 (-3.6%) · DraftKings -700 (-6.3%).
Off the band
the Under 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-1.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings ML, only $369 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $1 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $329 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 10.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-12.0-456
FPI-11.5-444
Sagarin-11.5-441
Massey-9.0-361
Market (11 books)-10.5-564
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.540.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Vikings -10.5-102-101-0.3%
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML-560-432priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 42.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
49ers to win
our data says 64 in 100 · -146
A Little Nasty · 49ers, waitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 3
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 4.51.4 pts our side
FPI
49ers by 9.56.5 pts our side
Sagarin
49ers by 4.51.3 pts our side
Massey
49ers by 6.53.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
49ers by 3.50.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
41.24.7 pts under the market
FPI
471.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.11.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
Kalshi——-161 60¢—
BetOnline.ag-3 +10046 -110——
All 12 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
Kalshi——-161 60¢—
Bally Bet-3 -11046 -109-155+128
BetOnline.ag-3 +10046 -110——
betPARX-3 -11046 -109-155+128
BetRivers-3 -11046 -109-155+128
BetUS-3 +10046 -110——
Caesars-3 -11245.5 -117-159+135
DraftKings-3 -12045.5 -110-175+145
FanDuel-3 -10246.5 -110-146+124
LowVig.ag-3 +10046 -107——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11046 -110-175+136
ReBet-3.5 +10045.5 -120-160+130

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -3.0 · -102 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel -3 at -102 (4.5%) · Caesars -3 at -112 (2.1%) · DraftKings -3 at -120 (0.4%).
Same call
49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 59. That's value. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel -146 (4.5%) · Caesars -159 (2.4%) · Kalshi 60¢ (2.1%) · DraftKings -175 (0.2%).
A Little Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-2.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -146 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $17 available; San Francisco 49ers ML, only $428 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $374 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-192
FPI-9.5-380
Sagarin-4.5-191
Massey-6.5-270
Market (11 books)-3.0-146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -3.0-102-122+4.5%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-146-176+4.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Chiefs -5.5
should be Chiefs -5.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Chiefs by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 4.5
FPI
Chiefs by 5.5
Sagarin
Chiefs by 4.5
Massey
Chiefs by 3
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
Massey
41.54 pts under the market
FPI
42.72.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.13.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
Kalshi————
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11045.5 -110——
All 11 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
Bally Bet+5.5 -10745.5 -109+200-250
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11045.5 -110——
betPARX+5.5 -10745.5 -109+200-250
BetRivers+5.5 -10745.5 -109+200-250
BetUS+5.5 -11046 -110——
Caesars+5.5 -11045.5 -114——
DraftKings+6 -11045.5 -110+210-258
FanDuel+5.5 -11545.5 -118+198-240
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10545.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11045.5 -110+191-250
ReBet+5.5 -11045.5 -110+195-246

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +6.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +6 at -110 (0.1%) · Caesars +5.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -115 (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · +210 at DraftKings
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +210 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +198 (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -110
Massey projects 42 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -104 (1.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -106 (0.6%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $0 available; Kansas City Chiefs ML, only $304 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+4.5+193
FPI+5.5+218
Sagarin+4.5+197
Massey+3.0+144
Market (11 books)+5.5+227
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.542.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +6.0-110-110+0.1%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+210+215-0.5%
TotalUnder 45.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Seahawks -6.5
should be Seahawks -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →
Market
Seahawks by 6.5
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 7.5
FPI
Seahawks by 8.5
Sagarin
Seahawks by 5.5
Massey
Seahawks by 11.5
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 70.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
Massey
394.2 pts under the market
FPI
41.12.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.13.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.
Seahawks -6.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): DraftKings or Caesars -6.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel -7 at -105 (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -285 at DraftKings
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): DraftKings -285 (-0.2%) · Caesars -320 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -340 (-3.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 43.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -6.5, only $354 available; Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $330 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $190 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.5-320
FPI-8.5-355
Sagarin-5.5-225
Massey-11.5-447
Market (11 books)-6.5-291
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.040.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -6.5-110-110-0.1%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-285-283-0.2%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks3-4-1.27 units · -18% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.4 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 8 posted picks
Open3calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks3-443%-1.27 units7 games

Closing line value: +0.4 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 7. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty3-350%-0.23 units6 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty15-2142%-7.28 units36 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 19. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.09 units
WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91
LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00
LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00
LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95
LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)3-442.9%-1.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty3-350.0%-0.2 usmall sample
A Little Nasty15-2141.7%-7.3 u
Not Nasty153 games——no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 13:21.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 77 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey7.7960
FPI9.87116
SP+10.05116
The market10.21168
Sagarin11.75158

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.1262
Massey1.001.500.0460
SP+1.000.500.0162
Sagarin1.001.500.0777

The line archive, 168 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 80 times, against it 61, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.53 points better than the close on average over 158 games. The close misses the final by 10.11, the open by 10.38, our raw ratings number by 12.29, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.37, MyBookie.ag 9.85, Kalshi 9.86.

The Cut tracker. 1 finished game opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market12.0033
nfelo12.3433
Sagarin12.4533
FPI13.7918
Massey13.9316

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.0316
Massey1.000.000.0716
Sagarin1.001.500.0916
nfelo1.001.500.0116

The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.

The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

SettingGamesOur missMarket'sPicks
as it runs18010.0410.571-0
ratings 0%18010.5710.571-0
ratings 5%18010.4810.571-0
ratings 15%18010.3010.571-0
ratings 45%1809.7910.571-0
Sagarin half a vote18010.0410.571-0
Sagarin no vote18010.0410.571-0
FPI a vote and a half18010.0410.571-0
Massey a vote and a half18010.0310.571-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 15 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.37Sides: pts vs close, 18 bets, beat it 61%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +5.55.53.5+2.0same side
UNLV at AkronAkron +13.713.713.5+0.2no call
Utah at Iowa StateIowa State +12.212.210+2.2no call
Vanderbilt at AuburnUnder52.752.8-0.1no call
Virginia Tech at Boston CollegeBoston College +141414+0.0no call
Wake Forest at LouisvilleWake Forest Demon +13.513.513+0.5no call
Wisconsin at Penn StatePenn State Nittany -10.6-10.6-9.6-1.0no call
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco -9-9-9+0.0no call
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysDallas +333+0.0no call
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsIndianapolis +333+0.0same side
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersWashington +6.56.57-0.5same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsChicago +3.53.53.5+0.0no call
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 135 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+8114.222-35 (39%)15-19 (44%)
Massey8413.417-25 (40%)5-15 (25%)
The blend8613.517-30 (36%)9-14 (39%)

NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey199.97-6 (54%)2-2 (50%)
FPI179.95-1 (83%)5-0 (100%)
The blend198.96-1 (86%)3-0 (100%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

44 priced · 3 Nasty Picks · 9 a little nasty · 1 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

14 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 22 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 58 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.

What's changed since 3:13pm

  • NewUMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets is now a pick: Sacramento State Hornets +4.5 at -108.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
  • → 0.8Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokiestoward Virginia Tech Hokieswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
9.95Points off per game at that weight
9.95The market on its own
109Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 9%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 109 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey909.50
SP+13010.29
The market21710.45
FPI14810.61
Sagarin20711.88
nfelo3312.34

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.595-10548%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 846095 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.27 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi1311.78
DraftKings3051.50
FanDuel3281.47
BetOnline.ag2871.47
LowVig.ag2791.47
BetRivers3171.39
MyBookie.ag2191.37
ReBet1031.36
Bally Bet1091.34
betPARX1091.33
BetUS2181.24
BetMGM2821.23
Caesars2501.18
theScore Bet1061.18
Courtside681.18
Fanatics2531.16
Bovada2861.14
Hard Rock Bet1081.13
TOM2751.10
Pinnacle2851.06
BetAnything930.94
Fliff1040.71
Polymarket230.57
Hard Rock Bet (OH)310.56
Hard Rock Bet (FL)310.50

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 6 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated yesterday
  • SP+ updated 5 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 6 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
  • nfelo updated 3 days ago
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Built 4:16 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 3989.