Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

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Buck Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 5:21 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

DAMN NEAR NASTYDenver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers -3.0

-105as called

Best on the board right now

Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is A Little Nasty. Small money, our side, no receipt.

Falcons at SaintsUnder 48should be 46.7 · getting 1.3 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 47.5 at -107 (0.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. The books did their homework this week. Annoying.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Texas A&M +4.5 (Texas A&M at Missouri) at 9.3% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Boise State at Fresno State, Boise State -6.5, 1 point our way since the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Texas A&M at Missouri, Texas A&M +4.5. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.

Buck

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Falcons at SaintsUnder 48should be 46.7 · getting 1.3 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

2 more later this week

Duke at Georgia TechMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 49should be 51.1 · getting 2.1 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -110 (3.2%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -112 (1.3%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 50.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars 50.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.3%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 49 (the games that land on 49); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Texas at OklahomaMoved our way · 1 ptTexas -7should be Texas -9.5 · getting 2.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Texas): TOM -7 at -115 (2.8%) · BetMGM -8.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · DraftKings -9.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Fanatics -8.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Caesars -9.5 at -108 (-2.1%).

Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 28 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +4.5, UNLV +4, South Carolina +14.5. Open

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and SP+ and Sagarin have seen the last games, Massey and SP+ haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Texas A&M at MissouriTexas A&M +4.5should be Texas A&M +2 · getting 2.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

9.3% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Texas A&M): Kalshi +4.5 at 49¢ (9.7%) · TOM +4.5 at -105 (9.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (5.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -112 (5.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +4should be UNLV +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsNasty Pick strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

5.6% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (UNLV): DraftKings +4 at -110 (5.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (4.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (4.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -109 (4.3%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (3.0%).

South Carolina at FloridaSouth Carolina +14.5-105 at DraftKings · 4.5% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:45am Buck's case ›

4.5% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (South Carolina): DraftKings +14.5 at -105 (4.5%) · Caesars +14.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -112 (2.8%) · BetMGM +14 at -105 (2.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +14 at -110 (1.4%).

UCF at Oklahoma StateUCF +10.5-108 at Caesars · 3.8% after the price, the Cut is 5% with 2 of the FourDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

3.8% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (UCF): Caesars +10.5 at -108 (3.8%) · Fanatics +10.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (2.2%) · BetMGM +10 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings +10 at -110 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

UAB at MemphisMemphis -14should be Memphis -17 · getting 3 ptsDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

3.2% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Memphis): TOM -14 at -112 (3.2%) · Caesars -14.5 at -106 (2.4%) · FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 51¢ (1.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -15 at -110 (0.8%).Points or price: -12.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than -14 (the games that land on 14); 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) costs about 8 more in 100 to break even than -112. The price wins.

South Florida at UTSAOver 52should be 56.1 · getting 4.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthThu 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (9.3%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (6.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (5.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (4.2%) · Caesars 53.5 at -112 (3.7%).Points or price: 51.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 52 (the games that land on 52); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.

San Diego State at Oregon StateUnder 56should be 52.7 · getting 3.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (9.5%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (8.6%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (7.6%) · Caesars 56.5 at -109 (7.4%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (7.1%).

Boise State at Fresno StateMoved our way · 1 ptBoise State -6.5should be Boise State -8 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›

6.0% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Boise State): TOM -6.5 at -105 (6.0%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 52¢ (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.2%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · Caesars -7.5 at -113 (-2.1%).

20 more, weaker reads

Ole Miss at VanderbiltVanderbilt +11should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGMA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

3.5% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Vanderbilt): BetMGM +11 at -108 (3.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (3.1%) · Fanatics +11 at -110 (3.0%) · Caesars +10.5 at -107 (2.6%) · TOM +10 at -110 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Louisiana at Louisiana TechMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 48.5should be 50.8 · getting 2.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -110 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.2%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-1.2%).

Kent State at Western MichiganWestern Michigan -14should be Western Michigan -15.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

3.1% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Western Michigan): TOM -14 at +100 (3.1%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (2.2%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (1.5%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.9%) · DraftKings -14 at -110 (0.8%).Points or price: -13.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -14 (the games that land on 14); -112 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.

Houston at Kansas StateHouston +3should be Houston +2 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

3.0% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Houston): Caesars +3 at -110 (3.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 50¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.4%).

North Carolina at PittsburghPittsburgh to winour data says 65 in 100 · -164A Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

2.9% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): DraftKings -162 (3.2%) · Caesars or BetMGM -164 (2.9%) · FanDuel -172 (1.8%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -175 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Wake Forest at NC StateWake Forest to winour data says 62 in 100 · -148A Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

2.7% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings or Caesars -148 (2.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -150 (2.3%) · FanDuel -154 (1.7%) · Kalshi 62¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 65¢ on the app (-203 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Tennessee at ArkansasOver 50should be 51.8 · getting 1.8 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 49.5 at -108 (3.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (3.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (2.1%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 53¢ (0.9%) · Caesars 50.5 at -110 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.

Minnesota at PurdueOver 51should be 52.7 · getting 1.7 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (3.3%) · Caesars 50.5 at -112 (2.8%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (2.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -115 (2.2%) · TOM 51 at -110 (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sacramento State at Bowling GreenBowling Green -7.5should be Bowling Green -8 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

2.1% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Bowling Green): FanDuel -7.5 at +106 (2.1%) · BetMGM -7 at -112 (1.1%) · TOM -7 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings -7 at -120 (-0.6%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (-0.6%).Points or price: -7 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than -7.5 (the games that land on 7); -112 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than +106. The price wins.

James Madison at Georgia SouthernMoved our way · 1 ptJames Madison -8should be James Madison -10 · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

2.0% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (James Madison): TOM -8 at -105 (2.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars -9.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · BetMGM -10 at -105 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.8%).

Air Force at Northern IllinoisOver 48should be 49.2 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (1.9%) · TOM 48 at -105 (1.9%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Eastern Michigan at AkronMoved our way · 1 ptAkron +6.5should be Akron +5.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

1.7% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Akron): TOM +6.5 at -105 (1.7%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +6 at -108 (-0.2%) · Fanatics +6 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars +5.5 at -107 (-1.3%).

Tulsa at NavyTulsa +2.5should be Tulsa +2 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

1.5% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Tulsa): FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (1.5%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (0.3%) · TOM +2.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-0.9%).

New Mexico State at Florida InternationalNew Mexico State +5.5should be New Mexico State +4.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthWed 6:30pm Buck's case ›

1.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.

Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +5.5 at -103 (1.5%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars +4.5 at -109 (-1.7%).

Florida State at LouisvilleFlorida State +5.5should be Florida State +4 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›

1.3% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Florida State): Fanatics +6 at -110 (1.5%) · TOM +5.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +5.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +5.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Arizona at West VirginiaArizona -2.5should be Arizona -3 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

1.2% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Arizona): Caesars -2.5 at -114 (1.2%) · BetMGM -3 at +100 (1.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -2.5 at -115 (1.0%) · TOM -2.5 at -120 (-0.1%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa +2.5should be Iowa +1 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsA Little Nasty strengthFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›

1.1% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Nevada at UTEPNevada -9.5should be Nevada -10 · getting 0.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

1.0% edge on FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel -8.5 at -105 (1.8%) · TOM -9.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM -9.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 51¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.9%).

USC at Penn StateOver 55.5should be 56.8 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -112 (3.0%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (2.3%) · Caesars 55 at -112 (1.9%) · Fanatics 55 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings or TOM 55.5 at -110 (1.0%).

Indiana at NebraskaUnder 52.5weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Read from FPI and Sagarin. SP+ and Massey haven't spoken.

Where, best first (Under): TOM 52.5 at -105 (2.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (0.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.6%).

Moved closer since the 1:56pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:56pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Texas at Oklahoma Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -9.0 to -7.0; the price from -110 to -115.
Duke at Georgia Tech Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.
South Alabama at Arkansas State Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Arkansas State -0.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -1.0 to -1.5; the price from -110 to -102. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
UCLA at Oregon Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Oregon -10.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -11.5 to -10.5; the price from -110 to -115.
Arizona at West Virginia Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Arizona -2.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The price from -110 to -114. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Indiana at Nebraska Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Indiana -7.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +9.0 to -7.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Kent State at Western Michigan Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Sniff of Nasty now
Damn Near Nasty at Western Michigan -13.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -13.5 to -14.0; the price from -112 to +100. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
Virginia Tech at California Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Virginia Tech -9.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +10.5 to -9.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

And 9 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 8:33am✓SagarinSun 10:16am✓MasseySat 6:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 116 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloFri 3:16pm✓FPISat 6:03am✓SagarinFri 3:16pm✓MasseySat 6:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 18 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

When the Nasty Number disagrees with the market by 3 or more, that side has covered 8 of 30 this season.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers

NFL 7:20pm

Panthers +3.5

should be Panthers +3.5 at DraftKings · was +2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Lions by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 21.4 pts our side

FPI

Lions by 2.51.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Lions by 12.6 pts our side

Massey

Lions by 30.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Lions by 3.50.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Panthers. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Panthers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

Massey

55.23.2 pts over the market

FPI

49.82.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

52.50.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	52 -110	+165	-205
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -108	51.5 -108	+176	-197

All 26 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	52 -110	+165	-205
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4 -112	51 -114	+165	-205
BetAnything	+4 -110	52 -110	+175	-210
BetMGM	+3.5 -102	51.5 -110	+170	-210
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	52 -110	+177	-205
betPARX	+4 -112	51 -114	+165	-205
BetRivers	+4 -112	51 -114	+165	-205
BetUS	+3.5 -105	52 -110	+175	-205
Bovada	+4 -115	51.5 -110	+170	-200
Caesars	+3.5 -108	51.5 -107	+164	-197
Courtside	+4.5 -123	51.5 -110	+168	-194
DraftKings	+3.5 +100	51.5 -112	+164	-198
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	36¢ +163 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+170	-205
FanDuel	+3.5 -104	51.5 -105	+168	-200
Fliff	+4.5 -120	51.5 -115	+175	-230
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+175	-210
LowVig.ag	+4 -108	52 -104	+177	-205
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 +100	52 -110	+177	-212
Pinnacle	+4 -108	51.5 -108	+176	-197
Polymarket	+3.5 +104	51.5 -104	+186	-194
ReBet	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+168	-200
theScore Bet	+4 -115	51.5 -110	+170	-200

Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Panthers): DraftKings +3.5 at +100 (0.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -102 (0.1%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Panthers to win · +174 (35¢) at Kalshi

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Panthers to win): Kalshi 35¢ (0.3%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +170 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +168 (-0.5%) · TOM, DraftKings or Caesars +165 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -107 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.0%) · Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-4.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +172 here against +189 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+120
FPI	+2.5	+123
Sagarin	+1.0	+104
Massey	+3.0	+147
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	52.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Carolina Panthers +3.5	+100	-102	+0.6%
Moneyline	Carolina Panthers ML	+174	+171	+0.3%
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus; total 52.0 here against 51.5 consensus; moneyline +172 here against +189 consensus.

Tomorrow

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at Saints

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints

NFL tomorrow 7:15pm

Under 48

should be 46.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 1, the Nasty Number says Saints by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 1TOM, -122

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4

Sagarin

Saints by 3.5

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 2.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Under -110

The Four

Massey

43.94.1 pts under the market

FPI

42.95.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.44.6 pts under the market

Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -122	48 -110	-123	+103
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2 -101	48.5 +101	-123	+109

All 26 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -122	48 -110	-123	+103
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -112 51¢	-126 54¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2 -112	47.5 -109	-136	+110
BetAnything	-2 -110	48 -110	-130	+110
BetMGM	-1.5 -110	47.5 -110	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-1 -122	48 -110	-123	+103
betPARX	-2 -112	47.5 -109	-136	+110
BetRivers	-2 -112	47.5 -109	-136	+110
BetUS	-1 -120	48 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-1.5 -110	48 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5 -114	48 -107	-130	+110
Courtside	-1.5 -115	47.5 -113	-127	+112
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-130	+110
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 47¢ +104 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-1.5 -115	48 -110	-125	+105
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	47.5 -110	-126	+108
Fliff	-1.5 -115	47.5 -115	-135	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-2 -110	47.5 -110	-130	+110
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2 -110	47.5 -110	-130	+110
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2 -110	47.5 -110	-130	+110
LowVig.ag	-1 -118	48 -107	-123	+103
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	48 -110	-131	+107
Pinnacle	-2 -101	48.5 +101	-123	+109
Polymarket	-1.5 -104	47.5 -104	-117	+113
ReBet	-2.5 -110	47.5 -110	-128	+109
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	47.5 -110	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -1.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): BetMGM -1.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi -1.5 at 51¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.7%) · Caesars -1.5 at -114 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -1.5 at -115 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -123 at TOM

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Saints to win): TOM -123 (-0.2%) · Fanatics, Kalshi or FanDuel -125 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.0%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -130 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. That's 4.6 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 47.5 at -107 (0.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Falcons).

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +1.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Anfernee Jennings (LB, Saints), Kaden Elliss (LB, Saints) and 2 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
FPI	-4.0	-192
Sagarin	-3.5	-175
Massey	-3.0	-159
Market (22 books)	-1.0	-118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	43.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -1.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-123	-122	-0.2%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-27 21:32; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tue Oct 6

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at Troy

CFB Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pm

Troy -10.5

should be Troy -10 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Troy by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Troy by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Troy →

Market

Troy by 10.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Troy by 12

FPI

Troy by 6

Sagarin

Troy by 11.5

Massey

Troy by 7.5

Nasty Number

Troy by 100.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.20.7 pts over the market

Massey

48.60.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.4on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-10.5 -105	49.5 -105	-410	+300
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	—	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -104	48.5 -110	-420	+314

All 17 books

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
TOM	-10.5 -105	49.5 -105	-410	+300
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	49.5 -112 51¢	—	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -113	49.5 -109	-480	+350
BetMGM	-10 -112	49.5 -108	-425	+333
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -113	49.5 -109	-480	+350
BetRivers	-10.5 -114	49.5 -110	-480	+350
Caesars	-10.5 -105	49.5 -110	-420	+320
Courtside	-10 -108	49.5 -108	-383	+319
DraftKings	-10 -110	49.5 -110	-395	+310
Fanatics	-10.5 -105	49.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	49.5 -110	-450	+340
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	49.5 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -101	50 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-10.5 -104	48.5 -110	-420	+314
ReBet	-10.5 -114	50.5 -111	-461	+320
theScore Bet	-9.5 -120	49.5 -105	-450	+340

Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +10.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Southern Miss): BetMGM +10 at -105 (-1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, TOM or Kalshi +10.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +10 at -110 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Southern Miss to win · +340 at FanDuel

We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +340 (-0.2%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +333 (-0.5%) · Fanatics +325 (-1.0%) · Caesars +320 (-1.2%) · DraftKings +310 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars 49.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · TOM or Kalshi 49.5 at -115 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.

Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans ML, only $115 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTroy by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-402
FPI	-6.0	-206
Sagarin	-11.5	-394
Massey	-7.5	-261
Market (15 books)	-10.5	-392

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5	-115	-106	-2.0%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+340	+343	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-115	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.5.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wed Oct 7

2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico State, New Mexico State at Florida International

GameThe call

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida International

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:30pm

New Mexico State +5.5

should be New Mexico State +4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +4.5

Sniff of Nasty · New Mexico StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, New Mexico State. Market says Florida International by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 4.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Florida International →

Market

Florida International by 5.5TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game

FPI

Florida International by 23.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida International by 2.53.2 pts our side

Massey

Florida International by 32.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida International by 4.51.2 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean New Mexico State. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

46.10.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.088% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

442.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-5.5 -117	46.5 -110	-215	+175
Pinnacle	-5.5 -101	46.5 -110	-203	+169

All 15 books

	Florida International spread	Total (over)	Florida International ML	New Mexico State ML
TOM	-5.5 -117	46.5 -110	-215	+175
Bally Bet	-5 -109	47.5 -110	-210	+170
BetMGM	-5 -110	47.5 -105	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -110	46.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-5 -109	47.5 -110	-210	+170
BetRivers	-5 -110	47.5 -112	-210	+165
Caesars	-4.5 -110	47.5 -107	-193	+161
Courtside	-4.5 -108	47.5 -108	-171	+148
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	47.5 -110	-175	+145
Fanatics	-5 -110	46.5 -110	-200	+165
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	47.5 -110	-205	+168
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 -115	47.5 -110	-210	+170
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -106	46.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-5.5 -101	46.5 -110	-203	+169
ReBet	-4.5 -116	46.5 -119	-230	+175

Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico State +5.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +5.5 at -103 (1.5%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +5 at -108 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars +4.5 at -109 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

New Mexico State to win · +175 at TOM

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): TOM +175 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +168 (-1.1%) · Fanatics +165 (-1.5%) · Caesars +161 (-2.1%) · BetMGM +155 (-3.0%).

Not Nasty

the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -113 (0.7%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 46.5 at -110 (-1.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is New Mexico State +5.5 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 88% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.2 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -206 here against -185 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida International by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game
FPI	-2.0	-118
Sagarin	-2.5	-119
Massey	-3.0	-132
Market (14 books)	-5.5	-206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico State Aggies +5.5	-103	-109	+1.5%
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies ML	+175	+176	-0.1%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 3.7.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.2 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus; moneyline -206 here against -185 consensus.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw State

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pm

Kennesaw State +3.5

should be Kennesaw State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Jacksonville State by 7.54.3 pts against us

FPI

Kennesaw State by 1.54.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Kennesaw State by 46.9 pts our side

Massey

Jacksonville State by 3.50.5 pts against us

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 30.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Kennesaw State. SP+ at Jacksonville State by 7.5 and Massey at Jacksonville State by 3.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

533 pts over the market

Massey

491 pts under the market

Nasty Number

511 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	+3 -115	50 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5 -107 50¢	+129 42¢	—
Pinnacle	+3.5 -118	50 -110	+140	-166

All 18 books

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
TOM	+3 -115	50 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	50.5 -107 50¢	+129 42¢	—
Bally Bet	+3.5 -110	49.5 -112	+140	-175
BetMGM	+3.5 -118	50.5 -108	+140	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3.5 -110	49.5 -112	+140	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -112	49.5 -112	+138	-175
Caesars	+3.5 -115	50.5 -113	+139	-164
Courtside	+3 -108	49.5 -108	+133	-152
DraftKings	+3 -110	49.5 -110	+130	-155
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	50 -110	+135	-160
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	50.5 -115	+140	-170
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	49.5 -110	+140	-170
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -111	51 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	+3.5 -118	50 -110	+140	-166
ReBet	+3.5 -125	49.5 -116	+135	-173
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	50.5 -115	+140	-165

Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +3.5 at -115 (1.7%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (1.1%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (-0.6%) · TOM +3 at -115 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

Kennesaw State to win · +140 at FanDuel

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars +140 (1.8%) · Fanatics +135 (0.9%) · DraftKings +130 (-0.0%) · Kalshi 42¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-1.9%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 50.5 at -107 (-2.2%) · Caesars 50.5 at -113 (-3.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Kennesaw State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +2.5, only $0 available; Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML, only $364 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +153 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+262
FPI	-1.5	-108
Sagarin	-4.0	-169
Massey	+3.5	+160
Market (15 books)	+3.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+140	+130	+1.8%
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +3.5	-115	-123	+1.7%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 09-30 18:06.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +153 consensus.

Thu Oct 8

4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Over, South Florida at UTSA

GameThe call

South Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSA

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 52

should be 56.1 · getting 4.1 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans South Florida too: market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore UTSA →

Market

UTSA by 7TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game

FPI

UTSA by 33.9 pts our side

Sagarin

UTSA by 81.2 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game

Nasty Number

UTSA by 61.2 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean South Florida. Sagarin at UTSA by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

62.510.5 pts over the market

Massey

60.68.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

61.69.6 pts over the market

Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UTSA spread	Total (over)	UTSA ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-7 -110	52 -105	-280	+220
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-276 72¢	—
Pinnacle	-7 -113	53.5 -109	-292	+232

All 17 books

	UTSA spread	Total (over)	UTSA ML	South Florida ML
TOM	-7 -110	52 -105	-280	+220
Kalshi	-6.5 -126 54¢	52.5 -112 51¢	-276 72¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -117	55.5 +107	-278	+220
BetMGM	-7 -105	53.5 -110	-275	+225
BetOnline.ag	-7 -113	53.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-6.5 -117	55.5 +107	-278	+220
BetRivers	-6.5 -118	55.5 +106	-286	+220
Caesars	—	53.5 -112	-290	+230
Courtside	-7 -108	53.5 -113	-290	+246
DraftKings	-7 -110	53.5 -115	-298	+240
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 54¢ -127 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-7 -105	53.5 -110	-280	+225
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	53.5 -110	-255	+205
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	55.5 +105	-275	+220
LowVig.ag	-7 -109	53.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-7 -113	53.5 -109	-292	+232
ReBet	-7.5 -105	53.5 -116	-300	+212

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida +7.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Florida): DraftKings or TOM +7 at -110 (2.9%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (2.4%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 48¢ (2.0%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

South Florida to win · +240 at DraftKings

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: South Florida loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (South Florida to win): DraftKings +240 (4.2%) · Caesars +230 (3.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +225 (2.8%) · TOM +220 (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (1.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 61. That's 9.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (9.3%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (6.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (5.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (4.2%) · Caesars 53.5 at -112 (3.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $468 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game
FPI	-3.0	-142
Sagarin	-8.0	-294
Massey	hasn't seen South Florida and UTSA's last game
Market (14 books)	-7.0	-268

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	61.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	+240	+198	+4.2%
Spread	South Florida Bulls +7.0	-110	-124	+2.9%
Total	Over 52.0	-105	-153	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.9.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at Liberty

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pm

Liberty -13.5

should be Liberty -13.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Liberty →

Market

Liberty by 13.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Liberty's last game

FPI

Liberty by 12.5

Sagarin

Liberty by 13.5

Massey

Liberty by 11

Nasty Number

Liberty by 13.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.81.7 pts under the market

Massey

50.52 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Sam Houston ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-600	+430
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	52.5 -116 52¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-13.5 -118	52.5 -110	-605	+418

All 17 books

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Sam Houston ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-600	+430
Kalshi	-13.5 -116 52¢	52.5 -116 52¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -113	52.5 -103	-835	+550
BetMGM	-13.5 -110	52.5 -108	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-13.5 -113	52.5 -103	-835	+550
BetRivers	-13.5 -114	52.5 -103	-910	+550
Caesars	-13.5 -114	52.5 -112	-590	+425
Courtside	-13.5 -108	52.5 -108	-576	+455
DraftKings	-13.5 -110	52.5 -110	-600	+440
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 55¢ -132 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	52.5 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -110	51.5 -115	-630	+450
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -110	52.5 +100	-850	+550
LowVig.ag	-13.5 -111	52.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-13.5 -118	52.5 -110	-605	+418
ReBet	-14.5 -105	52.5 -116	-649	+400

Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +13.5 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Sam Houston): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM +13.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · Caesars +13.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Sam Houston to win · +430 at TOM

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Sam Houston to win): Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM +456 (0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +440 (0.1%) · TOM or Caesars +430 (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-1.4%).

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.2%) · Kalshi or Caesars 52.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Full detail

We settle onLiberty by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Liberty's last game
FPI	-12.5	-423
Sagarin	-13.5	-450
Massey	-11.0	-374
Market (14 books)	-13.5	-574

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	50.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5	-105	-101	-0.9%
Moneyline	Sam Houston State Bearkats ML	+430	+437	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western Kentucky

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:00pm

Western Kentucky -2.5

should be Western Kentucky -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore Western Kentucky →

Market

Western Kentucky by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Kentucky's last game

FPI

Missouri State by 0.5

Sagarin

Western Kentucky by 4

Massey

Western Kentucky by 4.5

Nasty Number

Western Kentucky by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 2 to Western Kentucky by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

58.42.9 pts over the market

Massey

57.11.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.82.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Western Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Western Kentucky ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	55.5 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-2.5	55.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	55.5 -110	-131	+112

All 16 books

	Western Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Western Kentucky ML	Missouri State ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	55.5 -110	-130	+110
Kalshi	-2.5	55.5 -112 51¢	-136 56¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-1.5 -114	55.5 -112	-125	+102
BetOnline.ag	-2 -115	55.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-1.5 -114	55.5 -112	-125	+102
BetRivers	-1.5 -115	55.5 -113	-125	+102
Caesars	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-129	+109
Courtside	-1.5 -113	55.5 -113	-118	+102
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	55.5 -115	-120	+100
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 55¢ -132 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	55.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -118	55.5 -110	-140	+116
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -115	55.5 -110	-125	+100
LowVig.ag	-2 -111	55.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	55.5 -110	-131	+112
ReBet	-2.5 -111	55.5 -114	-137	+103

Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +2.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri State): FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-0.1%) · Caesars +2.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Missouri State to win · +116 at FanDuel

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): FanDuel +116 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +110 (-1.5%) · Caesars +109 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 47¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 55.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened PK, now -2.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Western Kentucky).

Kalshi thin: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5, only $183 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Kentucky by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Kentucky's last game
FPI	+0.5	+103
Sagarin	-4.0	-172
Massey	-4.5	-182
Market (13 books)	-2.5	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri State Bears +2.5	-104	-104	-0.1%
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+116	+117	-0.2%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas State

CFB Thu 8 Oct, 6:30pm

Arkansas State -1

should be Arkansas State -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Arkansas State →

Market

Arkansas State by 1TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game

FPI

Arkansas State by 2

Sagarin

Arkansas State by 4.5

Massey

hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game

Nasty Number

Arkansas State by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

65.58 pts over the market

Massey

57.10.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.33.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-1 -116	57.5 -110	-121	+101
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	57.5 -112 51¢	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Pinnacle	-1 -108	57 -109	-113	-103

All 17 books

	Arkansas State spread	Total (over)	Arkansas State ML	South Alabama ML
TOM	-1 -116	57.5 -110	-121	+101
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	57.5 -112 51¢	-121 53¢	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	-1 -113	57.5 -114	-118	-104
BetMGM	-1 -108	57.5 -110	-110	-108
BetOnline.ag	-1 -105	58.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-1 -113	57.5 -114	-118	-104
BetRivers	-1 -113	57.5 -115	-120	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -106	58.5 -112	-110	-112
Courtside	-1.5 -103	56.5 -108	-110	-106
DraftKings	-1.5 -105	56.5 -110	-112	-108
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in
Fanatics	-1 -110	58 -110	-115	-105
FanDuel	-1.5 -102	57.5 -110	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -105	57.5 -115	-120	-105
LowVig.ag	-1 -101	58.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-1 -108	57 -109	-113	-103
ReBet	-1.5 -109	57.5 -114	-119	-111

Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas State -1.5 · -102 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas State): FanDuel -1.5 at -102 (-1.0%) · BetMGM -1 at -108 (-1.0%) · Fanatics -1 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -1.5 at -105 (-1.7%) · Caesars -1.5 at -106 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas State to win · -110 at FanDuel

We make it 52 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 52 cents fair, a play under 47. Where, best first (Arkansas State to win): FanDuel, Caesars or BetMGM -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings -112 (-0.6%) · Fanatics -115 (-1.3%) · TOM or Kalshi -121 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (1.7%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 57.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 51¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.4%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-2.0%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars +1.5, only $204 available; Under 57.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -116 here against -104 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArkansas State by 1.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game
FPI	-2.0	-117
Sagarin	-4.5	-178
Massey	hasn't seen South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game
Market (14 books)	-1.0	-116

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	61.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5	-102	+102	-1.0%
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves ML	-110	-109	-0.2%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline -116 here against -104 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Fri Oct 9

5 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Iowa, Iowa at Washington

GameThe call

Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at Washington

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

Iowa +2.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Iowa +1 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +1

Sniff of Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Washington by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game

FPI

Iowa by 4.57.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Iowa by 0.52.8 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game

Nasty Number

Washington by 11.5 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Iowa. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

37.93.1 pts under the market

Massey

41.70.7 pts over the market

Weather

-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

38.82.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	41 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	—	-131 55¢	+105 47¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	41.5 -110	-131	+112

All 18 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	41 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	—	-131 55¢	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -112	41.5 -110	-132	+108
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	42.5 -105	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -105	42 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -112	41.5 -110	-132	+108
BetRivers	-2.5 -113	41.5 -112	-134	+108
Caesars	-2.5 -112	42.5 -108	-129	+109
Courtside	-2.5 -108	41.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	42.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42.5 51¢ -113 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	50¢ -108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	41.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -108	42.5 -108	-128	+106
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	41.5 -110	-130	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -101	42 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	41.5 -110	-131	+112
ReBet	-2.5 -111	41.5 -119	-140	+105
theScore Bet	-2.5 -110	42.5 -105	-130	+110

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, Caesars or TOM +2.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +2.5 at -112 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · +110 at Fanatics

We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Iowa to win): DraftKings +114 (2.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +110 (1.1%) · Caesars +109 (0.9%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +106 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 41 at -115 (-3.0%) · Fanatics 41.5 at -110 (-3.2%) · BetMGM 42.5 at -105 (-4.5%) · FanDuel or Caesars 42.5 at -108 (-5.2%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Over 41.5, only $11 available; Under 41.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 121% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game
FPI	+4.5	+182
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	hasn't seen Iowa and Washington's last game
Market (15 books)	-2.5	-121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	38.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+110	+105	+1.1%
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +2.5	-110	-115	+1.1%
Total	Over 41.0	-115	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at Louisville

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pm

Florida State +5.5

should be Florida State +4 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5

Sniff of Nasty · Florida StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Florida State. Market says Louisville by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 5.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game

FPI

Louisville by 14.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisville by 5.5on the market

Massey

hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game

Nasty Number

Louisville by 41.3 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Florida State. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

66.58 pts over the market

Massey

58.6on the market

Nasty Number

62.64.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-5.5	59.5 -112 51¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-6 -108	57.5 -110	-229	+188

All 18 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-5.5	59.5 -112 51¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Bally Bet	-5 -113	57.5 -108	-215	+175
BetMGM	-5.5 -108	58.5 -105	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-5 -113	57.5 -108	-215	+175
BetRivers	-5 -114	57.5 -109	-215	+163
Caesars	-5.5 -113	58.5 -107	-209	+175
Courtside	-4.5 -108	58.5 -108	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4.5 -110	58.5 -110	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-5.5 54¢ -127 all-in	60.5 50¢ -108 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics	-6 -110	58 -105	-220	+180
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	58.5 -110	-215	+176
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -110	57.5 -110	-210	+175
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -111	58.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-6 -108	57.5 -110	-229	+188
ReBet	-5.5 -119	58.5 -111	-240	+174
theScore Bet	-5.5 -110	58.5 -110	-210	+175

Marked: best for Florida State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +5.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Florida State): Fanatics +6 at -110 (1.5%) · TOM +5.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +5.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +5.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Florida State to win · +175 at FanDuel

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Florida State to win): Kalshi or Fanatics +181 (0.9%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars +176 (0.3%) · DraftKings +160 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-2.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 58 at -105 (2.0%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -105 (0.7%) · Caesars 58.5 at -107 (0.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM 58.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 51¢ (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida State +5.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Florida State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -5.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game
FPI	-1.0	-104
Sagarin	-5.5	-189
Massey	hasn't seen Florida State and Louisville's last game
Market (15 books)	-5.5	-202

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	62.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +5.5	-105	-111	+1.3%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+175	+174	+0.2%
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José State

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

San José State -6.5

should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was -6

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore San José State →

Market

San José State by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game

FPI

San José State by 81.5 pts our side

Sagarin

San José State by 8.51.9 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game

Nasty Number

San José State by 70.4 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean San José State. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

37.65.9 pts under the market

Massey

44.40.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

412.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	—	-250 70¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -112	44 -110	-249	+202

All 18 books

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	43.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	—	-250 70¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-6 -114	43.5 -117	-245	+195
BetMGM	-6.5 -110	44.5 +100	-235	+190
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -115	43.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-6 -114	43.5 -117	-245	+195
BetRivers	-6 -115	43.5 -118	-250	+195
Caesars	-6.5 -109	44.5 -110	-225	+186
Courtside	-6 -108	44.5 -108	-220	+189
DraftKings	-6 -110	44.5 -110	-225	+185
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 55¢ -132 all-in	42.5 57¢ -144 all-in	72¢ -284 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	44 -110	-245	+200
FanDuel	-6.5 -104	44.5 -108	-225	+184
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -105	43.5 -115	-240	+195
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -111	43.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-6.5 -112	44 -110	-249	+202
ReBet	-6.5 -119	43.5 -119	-295	+208
theScore Bet	-5.5 -115	44.5 -105	-215	+180

Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State -6.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San José State): FanDuel -6.5 at -104 (1.4%) · DraftKings -6 at -110 (1.3%) · Caesars -6.5 at -109 (0.3%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

San José State to win · -225 at FanDuel

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (San José State to win): FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars -225 (0.9%) · BetMGM -235 (0.0%) · Fanatics -245 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 70¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 72¢ on the app (-284 all-in) (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Caesars 44.5 at -110 (1.0%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -112 (0.5%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -120 (-1.2%) · TOM 43.5 at -115 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $204 available; Under 42.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSan José State by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game
FPI	-8.0	-290
Sagarin	-8.5	-299
Massey	hasn't seen Wyoming and San José State's last game
Market (15 books)	-6.5	-223

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	41.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Jose State Spartans -6.5	-104	-110	+1.4%
Moneyline	San Jose State Spartans ML	-225	-235	+0.9%
Total	Under 43.5	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah State

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

Utah State -4.5

should be Utah State -4 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Washington State than the bookmore Utah State →

Market

Utah State by 4.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game

FPI

Utah State by 4.5

Sagarin

Utah State by 2.5

Massey

hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game

Nasty Number

Utah State by 40.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

385.5 pts under the market

Massey

47.23.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-4.5 -105	43.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +109 46¢	-175 62¢	+134 41¢
Pinnacle	-4 -105	43.5 -110	-183	+154

All 18 books

	Utah State spread	Total (over)	Utah State ML	Washington State ML
TOM	-4.5 -105	43.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	44.5 +109 46¢	-175 62¢	+134 41¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -141	44.5 -107	-180	+145
BetMGM	-3.5 -112	43.5 -112	-165	+135
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	43.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -141	44.5 -107	-180	+145
BetRivers	-2.5 -143	44.5 -108	-182	+145
Caesars	-3.5 -112	43.5 -110	-162	+136
Courtside	-3.5 -108	44.5 -108	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	44.5 -110	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-4 -110	43.5 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -118	43.5 -110	-156	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -140	44.5 -105	-180	+145
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -101	43.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-4 -105	43.5 -110	-183	+154
ReBet	-3.5 -119	43.5 -116	-212	+156
theScore Bet	-4.5 -110	43.5 -110	-155	+135

Marked: best for the Utah State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington State +4.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Washington State): TOM +4.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -104 (-2.3%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (-2.4%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -105 (-2.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3.5 at -110 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Washington State to win · +144 at Fanatics

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (Washington State to win): Fanatics +145 (-3.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM +136 (-5.4%) · Kalshi 41¢ (-5.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +130 (-6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (-7.0%).

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 47. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Caesars 43.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-7.1%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -4.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Utah State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Washington State Cougars +3.5, only $76 available; Under 44.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah State by 440% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game
FPI	-4.5	-178
Sagarin	-2.5	-130
Massey	hasn't seen Washington State and Utah State's last game
Market (15 books)	-4.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Washington State Cougars +4.5	-115	-105	-2.2%
Moneyline	Washington State Cougars ML	+144	+170	-4.0%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.2.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYU

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pm

BYU -11.5

should be BYU -11 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 11.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore BYU →

Market

BYU by 11.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game

FPI

BYU by 12.5

Sagarin

BYU by 11.5

Massey

hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game

Nasty Number

BYU by 110.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.11.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11.5 -110	48.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -102	47.5 -109	-414	+310

All 18 books

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
TOM	-11.5 -110	48.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+351 21¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -110	47.5 -110	-455	+335
BetMGM	-10.5 -108	47.5 -110	-425	+333
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -110	47.5 -110	-455	+335
BetRivers	-10.5 -112	47.5 -112	-455	+335
Caesars	-10.5 -110	47.5 -112	-440	+340
Courtside	-10.5 -113	47.5 -116	-397	+329
DraftKings	-10.5 -115	47.5 -118	-410	+320
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 53¢ -122 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	47.5 -110	-450	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -110	47.5 -106	-465	+350
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	47.5 -110	-450	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -106	47.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-10.5 -102	47.5 -109	-414	+310
ReBet	-11.5 -114	47.5 -116	-549	+350
theScore Bet	-10.5 -110	47.5 -105	-500	+360

Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State +11.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa State): TOM +11.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 49¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · Fanatics, FanDuel, BetMGM or Caesars +10.5 at -110 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +335 at BetMGM

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +351 (-1.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +340 (-2.1%) · BetMGM +333 (-2.5%) · DraftKings +320 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (-5.4%).

Off the band

the Under 48.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 48.5 at -105 (1.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (-0.4%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Iowa State).

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 47.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game
FPI	-12.5	-422
Sagarin	-11.5	-390
Massey	hasn't seen Iowa State and BYU's last game
Market (15 books)	-11.5	-388

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +11.5	-110	-103	-1.8%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+335	+386	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.5	-105	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -10.5 consensus; total 48.5 here against 47.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Sat Oct 10

46 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at Missouri

GameThe call

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at Missouri

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Texas A&M +4.5

should be Texas A&M +2 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +1

Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says Missouri by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 2. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 4.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game

FPI

a pick'em4.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Missouri by 1.53.2 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game

Nasty Number

Missouri by 22.5 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 2.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.21.2 pts over the market

Massey

51.73.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.52.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-4.5 -115	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-4.5	—	—	+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
TOM	-4.5 -115	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-4.5	—	—	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3 -120	49.5 -112	-150	+123
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	49.5 -110	-160	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -120	49.5 -112	-150	+123
BetRivers	-3 -120	49.5 -113	-152	+123
Caesars	-3.5 -108	49.5 -112	-154	+126
Courtside	-3 -113	50.5 -108	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -115	50.5 -110	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -105	49.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-3.5 -102	49.5 -110	-156	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	49.5 -110	-150	+125
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -111	49.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	50.5 -109	-162	+122
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	49.5 -110	-150	+130

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +4.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 61 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Texas A&M): Kalshi +4.5 at 49¢ (9.7%) · TOM +4.5 at -105 (9.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (5.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -112 (5.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Texas A&M to win · +152 (38¢) at Kalshi

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Texas A&M loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): Kalshi 38¢ (6.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (4.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM +130 (2.7%) · Caesars +126 (2.0%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -110 (2.9%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Caesars 49.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.0%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-3.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +4.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers -4.5, only $52 available; Over 50.5, only $23 available; Under 50.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.2 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 49.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 240% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.5	-109
Massey	hasn't seen Texas A&M and Missouri's last game
Market (14 books)	-4.5	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	50.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +4.5	-105	-153	+9.3%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	+152	+116	+6.6%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-123	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -3.2 consensus; total 48.0 here against 49.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLV

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

UNLV +4

should be UNLV +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was +3.5

Sniff of Nasty · UNLVBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UNLV. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore UNLV →

Market

North Dakota State by 3TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game

FPI

a pick'em3 pts our side

Sagarin

UNLV by 13.9 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 2.50.4 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean UNLV. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.91.9 pts over the market

Massey

49.90.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.41.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 -107	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+3 -107	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+134 41¢	-167 61¢
BetMGM	+3.5 -108	49.5 -110	+138	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+3.5 -109	49.5 -110	+142	-170
Courtside	+4 -108	49.5 -108	+145	-166
DraftKings	+4 -110	49.5 -110	+142	-170
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in
Fanatics	+4 -115	49.5 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	49.5 -110	+134	-162
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -106	49.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+3.5 -114	49.5 -114	+144	-195

Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.

UNLV +4.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UNLV): DraftKings +4 at -110 (5.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (4.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (4.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -109 (4.3%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (3.0%).

A Little Nasty

UNLV to win · +142 at DraftKings

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: UNLV loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (UNLV to win): DraftKings or Caesars +142 (3.4%) · Fanatics +140 (3.1%) · BetMGM +138 (2.7%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +134 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UNLV +4.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $7 available; Over 49.5, only $52 available; Under 49.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.7 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game
FPI	PK	+100
Sagarin	-1.0	-104
Massey	hasn't seen North Dakota State and UNLV's last game
Market (9 books)	+3.0	+156

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	50.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UNLV Rebels +4.0	-110	-138	+5.6%
Moneyline	UNLV Rebels ML	+142	+124	+3.4%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.7 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at Florida

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45am

South Carolina +14.5

should be South Carolina +12 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +15

Sniff of Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 14, the Nasty Number says Florida by 12. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 14TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game

FPI

Florida by 85.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida by 94.8 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game

Nasty Number

Florida by 121.8 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean South Carolina. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

61.8on the market

Massey

59.42.6 pts under the market

Weather

-1.712 mph wind, 50% chance of rain, takes 1.7 points off

Nasty Number

58.93.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-14 -110	62 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	62.5	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -108	61 -110	-639	+437

All 17 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
TOM	-14 -110	62 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	62.5	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -114	60.5 -112	-560	+370
BetMGM	-14 -112	60.5 -112	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14 -110	62 -105	—	—
betPARX	-13.5 -114	60.5 -112	-560	+370
BetRivers	-13.5 -114	60.5 -113	-560	+370
Caesars	-14.5 -110	60.5 -112	-675	+475
Courtside	-14.5 -113	60.5 -108	-646	+508
DraftKings	-14.5 -115	60.5 -110	-675	+490
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 55¢ -132 all-in	63.5 50¢ -108 all-in	88¢ -900 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics	-14 -110	61 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -108	60.5 -110	-710	+490
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -115	60.5 -110	-550	+375
LowVig.ag	-14 -106	62 -103	—	—
Pinnacle	-14 -108	61 -110	-639	+437
ReBet	-14.5 -116	60.5 -116	-676	+400

Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +14.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (South Carolina): DraftKings +14.5 at -105 (4.5%) · Caesars +14.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -112 (2.8%) · BetMGM +14 at -105 (2.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +14 at -110 (1.4%).

A Little Nasty

South Carolina to win · +500 at BetMGM

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): BetMGM +500 (2.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +490 (2.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +475 (2.1%) · Kalshi 17¢ (1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 19¢ on the app (+376 all-in) (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 62.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 62.5 at 52¢ (1.8%) · TOM 62 at -115 (0.9%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-0.6%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +14.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 62.0 here against 60.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game
FPI	-8.0	-291
Sagarin	-9.0	-309
Massey	hasn't seen South Carolina and Florida's last game
Market (14 books)	-14.0	-557

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks +14.5	-105	-126	+4.5%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	+500	+412	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 62.0	-115	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 3.4.

TOM: total 62.0 here against 60.9 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

UCF +10.5

should be UCF +8 · getting 2.5 pts at Caesars

Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says Oklahoma State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 8. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 54.0 as well.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 9.5TOM, -117

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UCF's last game

FPI

Oklahoma State by 27.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 5.54 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen UCF's last game

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 81.6 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

46.87.2 pts under the market

Massey

495 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.96.1 pts under the market

Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-9.5 -117	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	53.5	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	54 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Oklahoma State spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma State ML	UCF ML
TOM	-9.5 -117	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	53.5	-381 78¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-10.5 -109	52.5 -109	-480	+350
BetMGM	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-375	+310
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	54 -110	—	—
betPARX	-10.5 -109	52.5 -109	-480	+350
BetRivers	-10.5 -110	52.5 -110	-480	+350
Caesars	-10.5 -112	53.5 -114	-400	+305
Courtside	-10 -108	53.5 -108	-383	+319
DraftKings	-10 -110	53.5 -110	-395	+310
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	53.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-10.5 -105	53.5 -108	-400	+310
Hard Rock Bet	-10.5 -110	52.5 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -106	54 -108	—	—
ReBet	-10.5 -109	52.5 -114	-441	+290
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	53.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +10.5 · -108 at Caesars

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UCF): Caesars +10.5 at -108 (3.8%) · Fanatics +10.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -115 (2.2%) · BetMGM +10 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings +10 at -110 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

UCF to win · +318

We make it 26 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): Fanatics +325 (2.3%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings +310 (1.4%) · Caesars +305 (1.1%) · Kalshi 24¢ (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 26¢ on the app (+257 all-in) (-2.2%).

Off the band

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 49. That's 6.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 54 at -110 (3.7%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or Caesars 53.5 at -107 (2.9%) · Fanatics or DraftKings 53.5 at -110 (2.3%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -112 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +10.5 · -108 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -10.4 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UCF's last game
FPI	-2.0	-118
Sagarin	-5.5	-192
Massey	hasn't seen UCF's last game
Market (14 books)	-9.5	-386

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +10.5	-108	-126	+3.8%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+318	+287	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -10.4 consensus; total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at Vanderbilt

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Vanderbilt +11

should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 2.5 pts at BetMGM · was +10.5

Sniff of Nasty · VanderbiltBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Vanderbilt. Market says Ole Miss by 10, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Ole Miss by 10TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game

FPI

Ole Miss by 63.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Ole Miss by 2.57.4 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game

Nasty Number

Ole Miss by 8.51.3 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Vanderbilt's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

634 pts over the market

Massey

58.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60.61.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+10 -110	59 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5	59.5 -107 50¢	+313 23¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -104	57.5 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	Ole Miss ML
TOM	+10 -110	59 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+10.5	59.5 -107 50¢	+313 23¢	—
Bally Bet	+10 -109	57.5 -113	+310	-400
BetMGM	+11 -108	57.5 -110	+340	-450
BetOnline.ag	+10.5 -104	57.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+10 -109	57.5 -113	+310	-400
BetRivers	+10 -109	57.5 -114	+300	-400
Caesars	+10.5 -107	57.5 -112	+340	-440
Courtside	+10.5 -103	57.5 -108	+339	-412
DraftKings	+10.5 -105	57.5 -110	+330	-425
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 51¢ -113 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in
Fanatics	+11 -110	57.5 -110	+325	-425
FanDuel	+10.5 -105	57.5 -115	+350	-465
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -120	57.5 -110	+300	-400
ReBet	+11.5 -116	57.5 -116	+310	-481

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +11.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): BetMGM +11 at -108 (3.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (3.1%) · Fanatics +11 at -110 (3.0%) · Caesars +10.5 at -107 (2.6%) · TOM +10 at -110 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Vanderbilt to win · +350 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): FanDuel +350 (2.5%) · BetMGM or Caesars +340 (2.0%) · DraftKings +330 (1.5%) · Fanatics +325 (1.2%) · Kalshi 23¢ (0.5%).

Off the band

the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 59 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 53¢ (-3.0%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.7%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -108 (-5.1%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vanderbilt +11.0 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

Kalshi thin: Vanderbilt Commodores +10.5, only $429 available; Ole Miss Rebels ML, only $388 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOle Miss by 8.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game
FPI	+6.0	+205
Sagarin	+2.5	+125
Massey	hasn't seen Vanderbilt's last game
Market (12 books)	+10.0	+385

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	60.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Vanderbilt Commodores +11.0	-108	-124	+3.5%
Moneyline	Vanderbilt Commodores ML	+350	+304	priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 59.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.5 consensus; total 59.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at Memphis

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Memphis -14

should be Memphis -17 · getting 3 pts at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · MemphisBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Memphis. Market says Memphis by 14, the Nasty Number says Memphis by 17. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 14TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game

FPI

Memphis by 19.55.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Memphis by 19.55.5 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game

Nasty Number

Memphis by 172.8 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Memphis. The Nasty Number is 2.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.92.4 pts over the market

Massey

57.90.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.40.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14 -112	58.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	—	-719 87¢	+530 15¢
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -102	58.5 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Memphis spread	Total (over)	Memphis ML	UAB ML
TOM	-14 -112	58.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	—	-719 87¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-14.5 -118	58.5 -108	-1000	+600
BetMGM	-15 -110	58.5 -108	-750	+575
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -102	58.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-14.5 -118	58.5 -108	-1000	+600
BetRivers	-14.5 -120	58.5 -109	-1000	+600
Caesars	-14.5 -106	58.5 -110	-850	+575
Courtside	-15.5 -108	58.5 -108	-852	+625
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	58.5 -110	-900	+600
DraftKings Predictions	-12.5 59¢ -157 all-in	57.5 56¢ -138 all-in	89¢ -1011 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-15 -110	58.5 -110	-850	+575
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	58.5 -110	-750	+520
LowVig.ag	-14.5 +102	58.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-15.5 -116	58.5 -114	-752	+440

Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis -14.0 · -112 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Memphis): TOM -14 at -112 (3.2%) · Caesars -14.5 at -106 (2.4%) · FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 51¢ (1.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -15 at -110 (0.8%).

A Little Nasty

Memphis to win · -719 (87¢) at Kalshi

We make it 86 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Memphis to win): Kalshi 87¢ (-1.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -750 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or Caesars -850 (-3.2%) · DraftKings -900 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 89¢ on the app (-1011 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 58.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 58.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -14.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -14.0, now -15.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Memphis, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $61 available; Under 57.5, only $404 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 1740% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game
FPI	-19.5	-871
Sagarin	-19.5	-852
Massey	hasn't seen UAB and Memphis's last game
Market (12 books)	-14.0	-756

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	59.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Memphis Tigers -14.0	-112	-128	+3.2%
Moneyline	Memphis Tigers ML	-719	-626	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Memphis Tigers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -14.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western Michigan

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Western Michigan -14

should be Western Michigan -15.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 14, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 15.5. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Western Michigan →

Market

Western Michigan by 14TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game

FPI

Western Michigan by 18.54.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 184.1 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 15.51.3 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Western Michigan. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

412.5 pts under the market

Massey

48.65.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.81.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-14 +100	43.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +101 48¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
BetOnline.ag	-14 +100	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Western Michigan spread	Total (over)	Western Michigan ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-14 +100	43.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	44.5 +101 48¢	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
BetMGM	-13.5 -112	46.5 -108	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-14 +100	46 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	46.5 -110	-625	+450
Courtside	-14 -108	46.5 -108	-530	+423
DraftKings	-14 -110	46.5 -110	-550	+410
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 54¢ -127 all-in	42.5 56¢ -138 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-13.5 -115	46 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-13.5 -118	46.5 -112	-750	+520
LowVig.ag	-14 +104	46 -108	—	—
ReBet	-14.5 -109	45.5 -114	-800	+450

Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -14.0 · +100 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Western Michigan): TOM -14 at +100 (3.1%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (2.2%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (1.5%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.9%) · DraftKings -14 at -110 (0.8%).

A Little Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -550 at DraftKings

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): DraftKings -550 (0.0%) · BetMGM or Kalshi -600 (-1.1%) · Caesars -625 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -650 (-2.0%) · FanDuel -750 (-3.6%).

Off the band

the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 44.5 at 48¢ (3.5%) · TOM 43.5 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (0.4%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (-2.8%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -14.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $196 available; Under 44.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 46.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 15.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI	-18.5	-790
Sagarin	-18.0	-749
Massey	hasn't seen Kent State and Western Michigan's last game
Market (9 books)	-14.0	-566

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -14.0	+100	-113	+3.1%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-550	-551	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 43.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 43.5 here against 46.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Houston +3

should be Houston +2 · getting 1 pt at Caesars · was +2

Sniff of Nasty · HoustonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Houston. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 55.5 as well.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 2.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston's last game

FPI

Houston by 13.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Kansas State by 11.4 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Houston's last game

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 20.7 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Houston. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Houston is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

63.58 pts over the market

Massey

58.22.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

60.95.4 pts over the market

Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	55.5 -116 52¢	—	+105 47¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Houston ML
TOM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	55.5 -116 52¢	—	+105 47¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -109	55.5 -107	-136	+112
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	55.5 -108	-135	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -109	55.5 -107	-136	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -110	55.5 -108	-137	+110
Caesars	-3 -110	55.5 -113	-145	+120
Courtside	-2.5 +100	55.5 -108	-127	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -102	55.5 -110	-130	+110
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	55.5 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	55.5 -105	-140	+116
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	55.5 -105	-135	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	55.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	—	55.5 -111	-141	+107

Marked: best for Houston, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston +3.0 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Houston): Caesars +3 at -110 (3.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.3%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 50¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.4%).

A Little Nasty

Houston to win · +120 at Caesars

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Houston to win): Caesars +120 (1.3%) · FanDuel +116 (0.5%) · BetMGM +115 (0.3%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 47¢ (-1.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 58. That's 5.4 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 55.5 at -105 (1.6%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or TOM 55.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 55.5 at -113 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 52¢ (-0.8%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Houston +3.0 · -110 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from Houston, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $234 available; Kansas State Wildcats ML, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston's last game
FPI	+1.0	+108
Sagarin	-1.0	-106
Massey	hasn't seen Houston's last game
Market (13 books)	-2.5	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	60.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Houston Cougars +3.0	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	Houston Cougars ML	+120	+114	+1.3%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pm

Under 56

should be 52.7 · getting 3.3 pts · was 54

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 56.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 9.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San Diego State too: market says Oregon State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 13.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game

FPI

Oregon State by 103.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon State by 10.53 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 12.51 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

46.19.9 pts under the market

Massey

46.59.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.39.7 pts under the market

Under 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	—	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -107	56 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Oregon State spread	Total (over)	Oregon State ML	San Diego State ML
TOM	-13.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	—	-609 85¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -130	57.5 -106	-835	+540
BetMGM	-14 -112	56.5 -110	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -107	56 -110	—	—
betPARX	-13.5 -130	57.5 -106	-835	+540
BetRivers	-13.5 -134	57.5 -108	-910	+540
Caesars	-14.5 -110	56.5 -110	-675	+475
Courtside	-14 -108	57.5 -108	-600	+471
DraftKings	-14 -110	57.5 -110	-625	+455
DraftKings Predictions	—	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	57 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	56.5 -110	-720	+500
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -130	57.5 -105	-850	+550
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -103	56 -108	—	—
ReBet	-15.5 -111	57.5 -109	-725	+420

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +14.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San Diego State): FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +14.5 at -110 (3.0%) · BetMGM +14 at -105 (2.3%) · DraftKings +14 at -110 (1.1%) · TOM +13.5 at -105 (0.1%).

Not Nasty

San Diego State to win · +488

We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +500 (2.6%) · Fanatics or Caesars +475 (1.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +456 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-2.7%).

Off the band

the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 46. That's 9.7 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (9.5%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (8.6%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (7.6%) · Caesars 56.5 at -109 (7.4%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (7.1%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward San Diego State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: San Diego State Aztecs +14.5, only $0 available; Over 56.5, only $56 available; Under 56.5, only $364 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.2 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 57.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 12.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game
FPI	-10.0	-344
Sagarin	-10.5	-363
Massey	hasn't seen San Diego State and Oregon State's last game
Market (13 books)	-13.5	-639

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	46.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +14.5	-110	-124	+3.0%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+488	+418	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-141	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.2 consensus; total 56.0 here against 57.0 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at Purdue

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pm

Over 51

should be 52.7 · getting 1.7 pts · was 48

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Minnesota by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Purdue →

Market

Minnesota by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game

FPI

Minnesota by 11.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Minnesota by 1.51.2 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game

Nasty Number

Minnesota by 2.50.1 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Purdue. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Purdue is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

59.18.1 pts over the market

Massey

56.55.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.86.8 pts over the market

Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5	51.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -111	51 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Purdue spread	Total (over)	Purdue ML	Minnesota ML
TOM	+2.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5	51.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-136 56¢
Bally Bet	+3 -104	50.5 -108	+133	-165
BetMGM	+3 -110	50.5 -115	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+3 -111	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -104	50.5 -108	+133	-165
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	50.5 -109	+132	-165
Caesars	—	50.5 -112	+127	-150
Courtside	+3 -103	50.5 -108	+133	-152
DraftKings	+3 -105	50.5 -110	+130	-155
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -105	50.5 -115	+130	-155
FanDuel	+2.5 +100	50.5 -114	+118	-144
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -120	50.5 -110	+135	-165
LowVig.ag	+3 -107	51 -108	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 +100	50.5 -119	+122	-163

Marked: best for Purdue, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +3.0 · -105 at Fanatics

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Purdue): Fanatics or DraftKings +3 at -105 (2.7%) · BetMGM +3 at -110 (1.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.1%) · TOM +2.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.9%).

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +130 at Fanatics

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Purdue to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +130 (1.9%) · Caesars +127 (1.3%) · BetMGM +120 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +118 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 47¢ (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (3.3%) · Caesars 50.5 at -112 (2.8%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (2.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -115 (2.2%) · TOM 51 at -110 (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.5 toward Purdue, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +2.5, only $109 available; Under 51.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +3.0 consensus.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game
FPI	+1.0	+107
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	hasn't seen Minnesota and Purdue's last game
Market (13 books)	+2.5	+143

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +3.0	-105	-117	+2.7%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+130	+120	+1.9%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread +2.5 here against +3.0 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at Pittsburgh

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Pittsburgh to win

our data says 65 in 100 · -164

Sniff of Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Pittsburgh by 4, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 5. At -164 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

Pittsburgh by 8.54.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 106.1 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen North Carolina's last game

Nasty Number

Pittsburgh by 51 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

41.35.7 pts under the market

Massey

47.50.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.42.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-4 -110	47 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-4.5	46.5 -121 53¢	-175 62¢	+152 38¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	47 -110	-178	+150

All 18 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-4 -110	47 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-4.5	46.5 -121 53¢	-175 62¢	+152 38¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	46.5 -112	-162	+132
BetMGM	—	46.5 -115	-165	+138
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -110	47 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -115	46.5 -112	-162	+132
BetRivers	-3 -117	46.5 -113	-162	+130
Caesars	-3.5 -105	47 -112	-164	+139
Courtside	-3.5 -113	46.5 -108	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3.5 -115	46.5 -110	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 55¢ -132 all-in	45.5 57¢ -144 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-172	+142
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	46.5 -110	-160	+130
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -106	47 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	47 -110	-178	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -114	46.5 -119	-200	+148
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	46.5 -115	-170	+145

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -3.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): Caesars -3.5 at -105 (2.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -3.5 at -110 (1.2%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -115 (0.1%) · TOM -4 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.4%).

Not Nasty

Pittsburgh to win · -164 at Caesars

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): DraftKings -162 (3.2%) · Caesars or BetMGM -164 (2.9%) · FanDuel -172 (1.8%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -175 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 46.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Caesars 47 at -108 (0.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -164 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -4.5, only $234 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	-8.5	-302
Sagarin	-10.0	-341
Massey	hasn't seen North Carolina's last game
Market (15 books)	-4.0	-159

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Panthers ML	-164	-186	+2.9%
Spread	Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5	-105	-115	+2.3%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at Oklahoma

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutral

Texas -7Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Texas -9.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was -9.5

A Little Nasty · TexasBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Texas. Market says Texas by 7, the Nasty Number says Texas by 9.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Texas by 7TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

Texas by 9.52.6 pts our side

FPI

Texas by 147.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Texas by 7on the market

Massey

Texas by 7.50.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texas by 9.52.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Texas. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Texas's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

35.83.7 pts under the market

Massey

40.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

381.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -121 53¢	—	-340 76¢
BetOnline.ag	+8 -115	40 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
TOM	+7 -105	39.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5 -112 51¢	39.5 -121 53¢	—	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -108	40.5 -113	+300	-420
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	40.5 -112	+275	-350
BetOnline.ag	+8 -115	40 -110	—	—
betPARX	+9.5 -108	40.5 -113	+300	-420
BetRivers	+9.5 -109	40.5 -114	+300	-435
Caesars	+9.5 -112	40.5 -112	+270	-335
Courtside	+9.5 -113	41.5 -103	+267	-316
DraftKings	+9.5 -115	41.5 -105	+260	-325
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	40.5 -115	+275	-350
FanDuel	+9.5 -110	40.5 -110	+280	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	40.5 -110	+300	-425
LowVig.ag	+8 -111	40 -108	—	—
ReBet	+9.5 -114	41.5 -114	+285	-420
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	40.5 -110	+280	-360

Marked: best for Texas, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -7.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas): TOM -7 at -115 (2.8%) · BetMGM -8.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · DraftKings -9.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Fanatics -8.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Caesars -9.5 at -108 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -325 at DraftKings

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Texas to win): DraftKings -325 (-0.8%) · Caesars -335 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 76¢ (-1.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -360 (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 39.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 39.5 at 53¢ (-4.3%) · FanDuel 40.5 at -110 (-4.4%) · BetMGM or Caesars 40.5 at -112 (-4.9%) · Fanatics 40.5 at -115 (-5.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas -7.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Texas Longhorns -7.5, only $14 available; Under 39.5, only $240 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +9.1 consensus.

TOM: total 39.5 here against 40.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 9.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+318
FPI	+14.0	+489
Sagarin	+7.0	+233
Massey	+7.5	+279
Market (14 books)	+7.0	+336

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	38.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Longhorns -7.0	-115	-129	+2.8%
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-325	-311	-0.8%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +9.1 consensus; total 39.5 here against 40.6 consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling Green

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Bowling Green -7.5

should be Bowling Green -8 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel

Sniff of Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8. At +106 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Bowling Green →

Market

Bowling Green by 7TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game

FPI

Bowling Green by 103.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Bowling Green by 10.53.6 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game

Nasty Number

Bowling Green by 80.8 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Bowling Green. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

402.5 pts under the market

Massey

452.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-7 -115	42.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-7.5	41.5 -126 54¢	-276 72¢	—
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	46 -110	-250	+203

All 18 books

	Bowling Green spread	Total (over)	Bowling Green ML	Sacramento State ML
TOM	-7 -115	42.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-7.5	41.5 -126 54¢	-276 72¢	—
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	46.5 -103	-278	+220
BetMGM	-7 -112	46.5 -105	-275	+225
BetOnline.ag	-7 -120	46 -110	—	—
betPARX	-6.5 -115	46.5 -103	-278	+220
BetRivers	-6.5 -117	46.5 -104	-278	+215
Caesars	-7.5 -109	46 -110	-290	+235
Courtside	-7 -108	46.5 -108	-271	+230
DraftKings	-7 -120	46.5 -110	-310	+250
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 57¢ -144 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	74¢ -317 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -105	46 -110	-300	+240
FanDuel	-7.5 +106	45.5 -110	-260	+210
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	46.5 +100	-275	+220
LowVig.ag	-7 -116	46 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-6.5 -113	46 -110	-250	+203
ReBet	-7.5 -109	45.5 -111	-340	+238
theScore Bet	-7.5 -115	45.5 -110	-320	+260

Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green -7.5 · +106 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bowling Green): FanDuel -7.5 at +106 (2.1%) · BetMGM -7 at -112 (1.1%) · TOM -7 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings -7 at -120 (-0.6%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -105 (-0.6%).

Not Nasty

Bowling Green to win · -260 at FanDuel

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Bowling Green to win): FanDuel -260 (1.7%) · BetMGM or Kalshi -275 (0.6%) · Caesars -290 (-0.4%) · Fanatics -300 (-1.1%) · DraftKings -310 (-1.7%).

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 42.5 at -105 (5.1%) · Kalshi 41.5 at 54¢ (3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · Fanatics or Caesars 46 at -110 (-4.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.5 · +106 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons -7.5, only $134 available; Under 41.5, only $343 available; Sacramento State Hornets ML, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.8 consensus.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBowling Green by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game
FPI	-10.0	-349
Sagarin	-10.5	-369
Massey	hasn't seen Bowling Green's last game
Market (15 books)	-7.0	-244

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	42.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons -7.5	+106	-102	+2.1%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	-260	-283	+1.7%
Total	Over 42.5	-105	-129	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.8 consensus; total 42.5 here against 46.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at Akron

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Akron +6.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Akron +5.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +3.5

Sniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says Eastern Michigan by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 5.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Akron →

Market

Eastern Michigan by 6.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game

FPI

Eastern Michigan by 4.52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Eastern Michigan by 1.55.2 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game

Nasty Number

Eastern Michigan by 5.51.2 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.15.4 pts under the market

Massey

49.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.33.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+6.5	50.5 -121 53¢	—	-250 70¢
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -105	50.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Akron spread	Total (over)	Akron ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+6.5	50.5 -121 53¢	—	-250 70¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -109	50.5 -109	+180	-225
BetMGM	+6 -108	50.5 -110	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -105	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+5.5 -109	50.5 -109	+180	-225
BetRivers	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+180	-230
Caesars	+5.5 -107	50.5 -110	+186	-225
Courtside	+5.5 -108	50.5 -108	+174	-200
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+6 -110	50.5 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -102	50.5 -110	+198	-245
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	50.5 -110	+180	-220
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -101	50.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+6.5 -116	50.5 -116	+185	-255

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +6.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Akron): TOM +6.5 at -105 (1.7%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · BetMGM +6 at -108 (-0.2%) · Fanatics +6 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars +5.5 at -107 (-1.3%).

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +198 at FanDuel

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Akron to win): FanDuel +198 (1.0%) · Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM +186 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 34¢ on the app (+178 all-in) (-1.5%) · DraftKings +170 (-2.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (0.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 50.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 2.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +6.5, only $490 available; Under 50.5, only $250 available; Akron Zips ML, only $120 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +5.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEastern Michigan by 5.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game
FPI	+4.5	+176
Sagarin	+1.5	+109
Massey	hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game
Market (13 books)	+6.5	+206

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +6.5	-105	-112	+1.7%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+198	+189	+1.0%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +5.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm

Boise State -6.5Moved our way · 1 pt

should be Boise State -8 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -8

Sniff of Nasty · Boise StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Boise State. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Fresno State →

Market

Boise State by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game

FPI

Boise State by 81.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Boise State by 42.3 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game

Nasty Number

Boise State by 81.5 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Boise State. Sagarin at Boise State by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Boise State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

51.63.1 pts over the market

Massey

49.30.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.52 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6.5 -115	48.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+6.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -115	49 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Fresno State spread	Total (over)	Fresno State ML	Boise State ML
TOM	+6.5 -115	48.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+6.5 -112 51¢	—	—	—
Bally Bet	+8.5 -114	48.5 -113	+275	-360
BetMGM	+7.5 -105	48.5 -110	+260	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7.5 -115	49 -110	—	—
betPARX	+8.5 -114	48.5 -113	+275	-360
BetRivers	+8.5 -115	48.5 -114	+275	-375
Caesars	+7.5 -107	48.5 -110	+255	-325
Courtside	+7.5 -103	48.5 -108	+246	-290
DraftKings	+7.5 -105	48.5 -110	+240	-298
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	73¢ -300 all-in
Fanatics	+8 -110	48.5 -110	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7.5 -105	48.5 -110	+270	-345
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -115	48.5 -110	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+7.5 -111	49 -108	—	—
ReBet	+8.5 -114	48.5 -114	+255	-370

Marked: best for Boise State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boise State -6.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Boise State): TOM -6.5 at -105 (6.0%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 52¢ (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.2%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · Caesars -7.5 at -113 (-2.1%).

A Little Nasty

Boise State to win · -298 at DraftKings

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Boise State to win): DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -298 (73¢ on the app) (-0.6%) · Fanatics -310 (-1.4%) · BetMGM or Caesars -325 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -345 (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Boise State -6.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $76 available; Under 48.5, only $8 available; Fresno State Bulldogs ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +7.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game
FPI	+8.0	+290
Sagarin	+4.0	+174
Massey	hasn't seen Boise State and Fresno State's last game
Market (13 books)	+6.5	+304

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	50.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boise State Broncos -6.5	-105	-134	+6.0%
Moneyline	Boise State Broncos ML	-298	-288	-0.6%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +7.9 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Wake Forest to win

our data says 62 in 100 · -148

Sniff of Nasty · Wake ForestBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Wake Forest. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 4. At -148 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore NC State →

Market

Wake Forest by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game

FPI

Wake Forest by 5.52 pts our side

Sagarin

NC State by 1.55.1 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game

Nasty Number

Wake Forest by 40.3 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Wake Forest. Sagarin at NC State by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.90.4 pts over the market

Massey

59.31.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60.10.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	59.5 -121 53¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Wake Forest ML
TOM	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	59.5 -121 53¢	+146 39¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3 -108	61.5 -108	+130	-157
BetMGM	+3 -102	60.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3 -108	61.5 -108	+130	-157
BetRivers	+3 -109	61.5 -109	+128	-159
Caesars	—	60.5 -110	+125	-148
Courtside	+3 -108	60.5 -108	+127	-145
DraftKings	+3 -110	60.5 -110	+124	-148
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -105	60.5 -110	+125	-150
FanDuel	+2.5 +102	60.5 -110	+128	-154
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -120	61.5 -110	+130	-155
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -111	60.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -103	60.5 -116	+119	-159
theScore Bet	+2.5 +105	60.5 -110	+130	-150

Marked: best for Wake Forest, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest -2.5 · -124 at FanDuel

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Wake Forest): FanDuel -2.5 at -124 (2.3%) · DraftKings -3 at -110 (2.1%) · Fanatics -3 at -115 (1.0%) · BetMGM -3 at -118 (0.4%) · TOM -3.5 at -105 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Wake Forest to win · -148 at DraftKings

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings or Caesars -148 (2.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -150 (2.3%) · FanDuel -154 (1.7%) · Kalshi 62¢ (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 65¢ on the app (-203 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 60.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 59.5 at 53¢ (-2.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 60.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Wake Forest to win · -148 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward Wake Forest, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.0 consensus.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game
FPI	+5.5	+194
Sagarin	-1.5	-112
Massey	hasn't seen Wake Forest and NC State's last game
Market (14 books)	+3.5	+140

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML	-148	-166	+2.7%
Spread	Wake Forest Demon Deacons -2.5	-124	-136	+2.3%
Total	Over 60.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.0 consensus; total 60.5 here against 60.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia Southern

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

James Madison -8Moved our way · 1 pt

should be James Madison -10 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was -9.5

Sniff of Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 8, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Georgia Southern →

Market

James Madison by 8TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game

FPI

James Madison by 112.8 pts our side

Sagarin

James Madison by 7.50.4 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game

Nasty Number

James Madison by 101.8 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean James Madison. Sagarin at James Madison by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in James Madison's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.13.9 pts under the market

Massey

562 pts over the market

Weather

-2.815 mph wind, 61% chance of rain, takes 2.8 points off

Nasty Number

50.33.7 pts under the market

Under 54 is a weather call. 15 mph wind and 61% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+8 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	-360 77¢
BetOnline.ag	+9 -105	54.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Georgia Southern spread	Total (over)	Georgia Southern ML	James Madison ML
TOM	+8 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	-360 77¢
BetMGM	+10 -112	54.5 -108	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9 -105	54.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+285	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -108	54.5 -108	+293	-350
DraftKings	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+285	-360
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 59¢ -157 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -110	54.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -105	54.5 -110	+285	-365
LowVig.ag	+9 -101	54.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+9.5 -109	54.5 -114	+270	-391

Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -8.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (James Madison): TOM -8 at -105 (2.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars -9.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · BetMGM -10 at -105 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · -360 (77¢) at Kalshi

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (James Madison to win): BetMGM -350 (-1.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars -360 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -365 (-1.7%) · Fanatics -375 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 80¢ on the app (-456 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 2.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Fanatics, FanDuel, Caesars or BetMGM 54.5 at -110 (0.8%) · TOM 54 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-14.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -8.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 61% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles +7.5, only $42 available; James Madison Dukes -7.5, only $112 available; Over 54.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.4 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI	+11.0	+374
Sagarin	+7.5	+280
Massey	hasn't seen James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game
Market (9 books)	+8.0	+332

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -8.0	-105	-114	+2.0%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-360	-330	-1.5%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +9.4 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at Navy

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Tulsa +2.5

should be Tulsa +2 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +3

Sniff of Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Navy →

Market

Navy by 2.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulsa and Navy's last game

FPI

Tulsa by 13.5 pts our side

Sagarin

Navy by 1.50.8 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Navy's last game

Nasty Number

Navy by 20.7 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Tulsa. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.50.5 pts under the market

Massey

533 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.21.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -103 49¢	—	+109 46¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -105	50 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Navy spread	Total (over)	Navy ML	Tulsa ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -103 49¢	—	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -115	54.5 -103	-150	+123
BetMGM	-2.5 -112	53.5 -108	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -105	50 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -115	54.5 -103	-150	+123
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	54.5 -104	-150	+120
Caesars	-2.5 -112	51.5 -110	-143	+122
Courtside	-2.5 -108	52.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	52.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 58¢ -150 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	53 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	53.5 -110	-146	+122
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	54.5 +100	-150	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -101	50 -108	—	—
Polymarket	-2.5 -108	—	-133	—
ReBet	—	53.5 -111	-150	+113

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +2.5 · +100 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulsa): FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (1.5%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (0.3%) · TOM +2.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-0.9%).

Not Nasty

Tulsa to win · +122 at FanDuel

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): FanDuel or Caesars +122 (1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (0.3%) · DraftKings +114 (0.0%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-3.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -110 (4.2%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 49¢ (1.9%) · Caesars 51.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (0.1%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +2.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $0 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $55 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 52.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNavy by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulsa and Navy's last game
FPI	+1.0	+105
Sagarin	-1.5	-113
Massey	hasn't seen Navy's last game
Market (13 books)	-2.5	-132

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML	+122	+114	+1.7%
Spread	Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5	+100	-106	+1.5%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-130	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 52.9 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West Virginia

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Arizona -2.5

should be Arizona -3 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars · was -3

Sniff of Nasty · ArizonaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Arizona. Market says Arizona by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Arizona by 2.5TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game

FPI

Arizona by 52.5 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em2.5 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game

Nasty Number

Arizona by 30.6 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Arizona. Sagarin at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

59.90.6 pts under the market

Massey

55.84.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

57.92.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61.5 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	60.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	60.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	60.5 -115	—	—

All 17 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Arizona ML
TOM	+2.5 +100	60.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+2.5 -103 49¢	60.5 -107 50¢	+118 44¢	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	60.5 -112	+116	-141
BetMGM	+3 -120	60.5 -110	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	60.5 -115	—	—
betPARX	+2.5 -108	60.5 -112	+116	-141
BetRivers	+2.5 -109	60.5 -113	+115	-143
Caesars	+2.5 -106	60.5 -112	+119	-139
Courtside	+2.5 -103	59.5 -108	+116	-132
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	59.5 -110	+114	-135
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics	+3 -115	60.5 -110	+115	-140
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+118	-142
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -110	60.5 -110	+115	-140
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	60.5 -114	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -111	60.5 -116	+109	-145
theScore Bet	+2.5 -105	60.5 -110	+120	-140

Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -2.5 · -114 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Arizona): Caesars -2.5 at -114 (1.2%) · BetMGM -3 at +100 (1.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -2.5 at -115 (1.0%) · TOM -2.5 at -120 (-0.1%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arizona to win · -140 at Caesars

We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55. Where, best first (Arizona to win): DraftKings -135 (1.8%) · Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM -139 (1.0%) · FanDuel -142 (0.5%) · Kalshi 58¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-2.8%).

Not Nasty

the Under 60.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 60.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 60.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars 60.5 at -112 (-1.2%) · TOM 60.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 60.5 at 53¢ (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Arizona -2.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game
FPI	+5.0	+186
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	hasn't seen Arizona and West Virginia's last game
Market (14 books)	+2.5	+128

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	57.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona Wildcats -2.5	-114	-120	+1.2%
Moneyline	Arizona Wildcats ML	-140	-145	+0.9%
Total	Under 60.5	-115	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEP

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Nevada -9.5

should be Nevada -10 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM

Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore UTEP →

Market

Nevada by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UTEP's last game

FPI

Nevada by 122.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Nevada by 45.3 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen UTEP's last game

Nasty Number

Nevada by 100.6 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Nevada. Sagarin at Nevada by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.8on the market

Massey

52.32.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.11.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+9.5 -116 52¢	—	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	UTEP spread	Total (over)	UTEP ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+9.5 -116 52¢	—	+280 25¢	-360 77¢
BetMGM	+9.5 -108	51.5 -112	+280	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+9.5 -110	51.5 -110	+275	-345
Courtside	+9.5 -108	52.5 -108	+282	-335
DraftKings	+9.5 -110	52.5 -110	+275	-345
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -110	51.5 -110	+275	-350
FanDuel	+8.5 -115	51.5 -105	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -111	51.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+9.5 -111	51.5 -116	+265	-391

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada -9.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Nevada): FanDuel -8.5 at -105 (1.8%) · TOM -9.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM -9.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 51¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

Nevada to win · -350 at FanDuel

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 73. Where, best first (Nevada to win): DraftKings or Caesars -345 (-0.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -350 (-0.4%) · Kalshi 77¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 80¢ on the app (-456 all-in) (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (0.6%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars or Fanatics 51.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -112 (-2.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada -9.5 · -105 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $50 available; Under 50.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UTEP's last game
FPI	+12.0	+402
Sagarin	+4.0	+173
Massey	hasn't seen UTEP's last game
Market (9 books)	+9.5	+320

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack -9.5	-105	-109	+1.0%
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	-350	-343	-0.4%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.7 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana Tech

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 48.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts

should be 50.8 · getting 2.3 pts · was 50.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Louisiana Tech by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game

FPI

Louisiana Tech by 11.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 6.53.9 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game

Nasty Number

Louisiana Tech by 20.5 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Louisiana. Sagarin at Louisiana Tech by 6.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Louisiana is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

52.54 pts over the market

Massey

54.86.3 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

51.93.4 pts over the market

Over 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	+101 48¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	50 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Louisiana ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	+101 48¢
BetMGM	-2.5 -105	50.5 -108	-125	+105
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
Caesars	-2.5 -110	50.5 -110	-131	+110
Courtside	-2.5 -108	50.5 -108	-122	+107
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	50.5 -105	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	50 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-1.5 -115	50.5 -110	-126	+105
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -111	50 -108	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -109	50.5 -114	-136	+102

Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +2.5 · -102 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (0.5%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

Louisiana to win · +114 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): DraftKings +114 (-0.5%) · Caesars or Fanatics +110 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +105 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 48¢ (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-3.8%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.4 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -110 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.2%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-1.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 80°F, 36% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 2.8 away from Louisiana, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5, only $139 available; Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +2.5, only $357 available; Over 48.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana Tech by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game
FPI	-1.0	-107
Sagarin	-6.5	-211
Massey	hasn't seen Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game
Market (9 books)	-2.5	-118

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +2.5	-102	-104	+0.5%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	+114	+116	-0.5%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 55.5

should be 56.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. Nothing there.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

a pick'emTOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen USC and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 1.51.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Penn State by 2.52.4 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen USC's last game

Nasty Number

a pick'em0.2 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Penn State. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 3 points more in Penn State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

60.85.3 pts over the market

Massey

57.82.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.33.8 pts over the market

Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	PK -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	—	—	-112 51¢
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	55 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	USC ML
TOM	PK -110	55.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -103 49¢	—	—	-112 51¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -110	55.5 -114	+102	-124
BetMGM	+1 -108	54.5 -115	-105	-115
BetOnline.ag	-1 -110	55 -110	—	—
betPARX	+1.5 -110	55.5 -114	+102	-124
BetRivers	+1.5 -112	55.5 -115	+102	-125
Caesars	PK -110	55 -112	-110	-110
Courtside	+1.5 -108	55.5 -108	+102	-118
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	55.5 -110	+100	-120
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 57¢ -144 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fanatics	+1 -110	55 -115	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -118	54.5 -112	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	55.5 -115	+100	-125
LowVig.ag	-1 -106	55 -108	—	—
ReBet	-0.5 -111	55.5 -105	-112	-118
theScore Bet	+1.5 -120	54.5 -115	-110	-110

Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (0.0%) · BetMGM +1 at -108 (-0.7%) · Fanatics +1 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -118 (-1.7%) · Caesars or TOM PK at -110 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

Penn State to win · +100 at DraftKings

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Penn State to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +100 (-0.0%) · BetMGM -105 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 3.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -112 (3.0%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (2.3%) · Caesars 55 at -112 (1.9%) · Fanatics 55 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings or TOM 55.5 at -110 (1.0%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 60°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 2.3 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $25 available; Under 55.5, only $397 available; Penn State Nittany Lions ML, only $301 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread PK here against +0.8 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen USC and Penn State's last game
FPI	-1.5	-113
Sagarin	-2.5	-120
Massey	hasn't seen USC's last game
Market (14 books)	PK	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	59.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Penn State Nittany Lions +1.5	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	Penn State Nittany Lions ML	+100	+100	-0.0%
Total	Over 55.5	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward USC Trojans since 10-02 11:03; total has moved down 3.4.

TOM: spread PK here against +0.8 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.1 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at Nebraska

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Under 52.5

weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total

Sniff of Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 52.5, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Indiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 8. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Indiana by 7.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game

FPI

Indiana by 7

Sagarin

Indiana by 5

Massey

hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game

Nasty Number

Indiana by 80.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.31.8 pts over the market

Massey

502.5 pts under the market

Weather

-2.116 mph wind, takes 2.1 points off

Nasty Number

50.12.4 pts under the market

Under 52.5 is a weather call. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7.5 -115	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Pinnacle	+9 -108	51.5 -110	+274	-355

All 18 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+7.5 -115	52.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5	—	+266 26¢	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+8.5 -113	52.5 -107	+280	-360
BetMGM	+8.5 -110	51.5 -110	+275	-350
BetOnline.ag	+9 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+8.5 -113	52.5 -107	+280	-360
BetRivers	+8.5 -114	52.5 -108	+270	-360
Caesars	—	51.5 -112	+275	-360
Courtside	+9.5 -108	51.5 -108	+267	-316
DraftKings	+9.5 -110	51.5 -110	+260	-325
DraftKings Predictions	+7.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 57¢ -144 all-in	29¢ +223 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+8.5 -110	51.5 -110	+270	-340
FanDuel	+8.5 -105	51.5 -115	+280	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+8.5 -110	52.5 -105	+275	-350
LowVig.ag	+9 -111	51.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	+9 -108	51.5 -110	+274	-355
ReBet	+9.5 -111	51.5 -116	+265	-391
theScore Bet	+8.5 -105	51.5 -115	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -7.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Indiana): TOM -7.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · BetMGM -8.5 at -108 (-2.9%) · Fanatics -8.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 53¢ (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.9%).

Not Nasty

Indiana to win · -322 (75¢) at Kalshi

We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -322 (-2.0%) · Fanatics -340 (-2.9%) · BetMGM -350 (-3.4%) · FanDuel or Caesars -360 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 78¢ on the app (-401 all-in) (-5.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 52.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 2.1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52.5 at -105 (2.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (0.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Nebraska).

Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers +7.5, only $1 available; Over 52.5, only $112 available; Under 52.5, only $395 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +8.9 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 51.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game
FPI	+7.0	+228
Sagarin	+5.0	+186
Massey	hasn't seen Indiana and Nebraska's last game
Market (15 books)	+7.5	+321

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	50.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -7.5	-105	-105	-0.1%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	-322	-290	-2.0%
Total	Under 52.5	-105	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +8.9 consensus; total 52.5 here against 51.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia Tech

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Over 49Moved our way · 1.5 pts

should be 51.1 · getting 2.1 pts · was 52

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 7, the Nasty Number says Duke by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Duke than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Duke by 7TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Duke by 8

FPI

Duke by 8

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 1

Massey

Duke by 3

Nasty Number

Duke by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

55.16.1 pts over the market

Massey

54.15.1 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

52.83.8 pts over the market

Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+7 -110	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5 -131 55¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+229 29¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	50.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Duke ML
TOM	+7 -110	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+7.5 -131 55¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+229 29¢	—
Bally Bet	+7 -113	50.5 -110	+215	-275
BetMGM	+7 -110	50.5 -108	+220	-275
BetOnline.ag	+7 -110	50.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+7 -113	50.5 -110	+215	-275
BetRivers	+7 -113	50.5 -112	+215	-278
Caesars	—	50.5 -110	+220	-275
Courtside	+7 -108	50.5 -108	+241	-283
DraftKings	+7 -110	50.5 -110	+235	-290
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -110	50.5 -110	+230	-285
FanDuel	+6.5 +100	49.5 -112	+210	-260
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 +100	50.5 -110	+220	-275
LowVig.ag	+7 -106	50.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+7.5 -128	50.5 -116	+214	-300

Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Duke -7.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Duke): FanDuel -6.5 at -122 (-0.4%) · BetMGM -7 at -108 (-0.4%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or TOM -7 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 48¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Duke to win · -260 at FanDuel

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Duke to win): FanDuel -260 (-0.2%) · BetMGM or Caesars -275 (-1.3%) · Fanatics -285 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -290 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-6.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -110 (3.2%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -112 (1.3%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 50.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars 50.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.3%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 73°F, 41% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Duke Blue Devils ML, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.0	+291
FPI	+8.0	+285
Sagarin	-1.0	-105
Massey	+3.0	+135
Market (13 books)	+7.0	+254

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	52.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duke Blue Devils -7.0	-110	-106	-0.9%
Moneyline	Duke Blue Devils ML	-260	-257	-0.2%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-125	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 50.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at Arkansas

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pm

Over 50

should be 51.8 · getting 1.8 pts · was 54.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 9.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Tennessee by 13.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 15.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 9.5

Massey

hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 140.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

59.79.7 pts over the market

Massey

59.89.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.89.8 pts over the market

Over 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -110	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+13.5	49.5 -121 53¢	+456 17¢	-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Tennessee ML
TOM	+13.5 -110	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+13.5	49.5 -121 53¢	+456 17¢	-564 84¢
Bally Bet	+13.5 -109	49.5 -113	+380	-560
BetMGM	+13.5 -108	49.5 -108	+450	-625
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+13.5 -109	49.5 -113	+380	-560
BetRivers	+13.5 -110	49.5 -114	+375	-560
Caesars	+13.5 -107	50.5 -110	+425	-590
Courtside	+14 -108	49.5 -108	+487	-623
DraftKings	+14 -110	49.5 -110	+470	-650
DraftKings Predictions	+13.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	20¢ +355 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in
Fanatics	+13.5 -105	50 -110	+440	-600
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	49.5 -108	+420	-580
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -110	49.5 -110	+375	-550
LowVig.ag	+13.5 -106	49.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+13.5 -109	49.5 -114	+410	-676

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -13.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Tennessee): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM -13.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · Caesars -13.5 at -113 (-1.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -13.5 at -115 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -14 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Tennessee to win · -590 at Caesars

We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): Kalshi 84¢ (-2.1%) · FanDuel -580 (-2.5%) · Caesars -590 (-2.7%) · Fanatics -600 (-2.9%) · BetMGM -625 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 60. That's 9.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 49.5 at -108 (3.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (3.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (2.1%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 53¢ (0.9%) · Caesars 50.5 at -110 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 1421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game
FPI	+15.5	+560
Sagarin	+9.5	+312
Massey	hasn't seen Tennessee and Arkansas's last game
Market (13 books)	+13.5	+527

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	59.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Volunteers -13.5	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Tennessee Volunteers ML	-590	-482	priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.9.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern Illinois

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Over 48

should be 49.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 47.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 11.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Northern Illinois →

Market

Air Force by 10.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Air Force's last game

FPI

Air Force by 9.5

Sagarin

Air Force by 5.5

Massey

hasn't seen Air Force's last game

Nasty Number

Air Force by 11.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

51.93.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.83.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.93.9 pts over the market

Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+10.5 -110	48 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+11.5 -116 52¢	—	+373 20¢	-490 82¢
BetOnline.ag	+12.5 -105	47 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Northern Illinois spread	Total (over)	Northern Illinois ML	Air Force ML
TOM	+10.5 -110	48 -105	—	—
Kalshi	+11.5 -116 52¢	—	+373 20¢	-490 82¢
BetMGM	+13 -108	47.5 -110	+400	-525
BetOnline.ag	+12.5 -105	47 -110	—	—
Caesars	+12.5 -110	47.5 -110	+390	-530
Courtside	+12.5 -108	47.5 -108	+371	-454
DraftKings	+12.5 -110	47.5 -110	+360	-470
DraftKings Predictions	+10.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in
Fanatics	+13 -110	47.5 -110	+425	-575
FanDuel	+13.5 -110	47.5 -115	+430	-600
LowVig.ag	+12.5 -101	47 -108	—	—
ReBet	+13.5 -116	47.5 -116	+390	-649

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force -10.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Air Force): TOM -10.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · Kalshi -11.5 at 51¢ (-2.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars -12.5 at -110 (-3.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -13 at -110 (-4.3%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -110 (-4.9%).

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · -470 at DraftKings

We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Air Force to win): DraftKings -470 (-2.6%) · Kalshi 82¢ (-3.2%) · BetMGM or Caesars -525 (-4.1%) · Fanatics -575 (-5.3%) · FanDuel -600 (-5.9%).

Off the band

the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. That's 3.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (1.9%) · TOM 48 at -105 (1.9%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $61 available; Under 47.5, only $406 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +12.8 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 11.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Air Force's last game
FPI	+9.5	+317
Sagarin	+5.5	+190
Massey	hasn't seen Air Force's last game
Market (9 books)	+10.5	+483

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons -10.5	-110	-108	-0.4%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	-470	-396	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.0	-105	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +12.8 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at Army

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Tulane +4

should be Tulane +3 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was +5.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Army →

Market

Army by 3.5TOM, -103

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Army's last game

FPI

Army by 21.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Army by 7.53.9 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Army's last game

Nasty Number

Army by 30.5 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Tulane. Sagarin at Army by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulane is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.51 pts over the market

Massey

43.53 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.51 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -103	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	46.5	-167 61¢	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	45 -110	-178	+150

All 18 books

	Army spread	Total (over)	Army ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-3.5 -103	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	46.5	-167 61¢	—
Bally Bet	-3 -115	45.5 -112	-165	+135
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	45.5 -105	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-3 -115	45.5 -112	-165	+135
BetRivers	-3 -117	45.5 -113	-167	+135
Caesars	-3.5 -112	45.5 -112	-176	+149
Courtside	-4 -108	45.5 -108	-188	+163
DraftKings	-4 -110	45.5 -110	-192	+160
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 56¢ -138 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-172	+142
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	45.5 -110	-165	+135
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	45.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	45 -110	-178	+150
ReBet	-3.5 -116	45.5 -111	-204	+151
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	45.5 -110	-170	+145

Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +4.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulane): DraftKings +4 at -110 (2.4%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (1.5%) · Fanatics or FanDuel +3.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Caesars +3.5 at -112 (0.6%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

Tulane to win · +160 at DraftKings

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Tulane loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Tulane to win): DraftKings +160 (3.2%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars +150 (1.6%) · FanDuel +142 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-3.3%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 46.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -112 (-2.5%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -115 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +4.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $130 available; Tulane Green Wave ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Army's last game
FPI	-2.0	-115
Sagarin	-7.5	-270
Massey	hasn't seen Army's last game
Market (15 books)	-3.5	-164

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+160	+140	+3.2%
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +4.0	-110	-121	+2.4%
Total	Under 46.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Michigan State +3

should be Michigan State +3 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 3, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Michigan State →

Market

Illinois by 3TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game

FPI

Illinois by 12 pts our side

Sagarin

Illinois by 0.52.5 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game

Nasty Number

Illinois by 30 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Michigan State. The Nasty Number is 0 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Michigan State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

57.58 pts over the market

Massey

50.91.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.24.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+3 -108	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	49.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -111	50 -107	+147	-174

All 17 books

	Michigan State spread	Total (over)	Michigan State ML	Illinois ML
TOM	+3 -108	49.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	49.5 -116 52¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -112	50.5 -112	+138	-167
BetMGM	+3.5 -115	49.5 -110	+130	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -115	49.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+3.5 -112	50.5 -112	+138	-167
BetRivers	+3.5 -113	50.5 -113	+138	-175
Caesars	+3.5 -118	49.5 -112	+138	-164
Courtside	+3 -103	50.5 -108	+139	-159
DraftKings	+3 -105	50.5 -110	+136	-162
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 56¢ -138 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	49.5 -110	+140	-170
FanDuel	+3.5 -122	49.5 -114	+126	-152
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	50.5 -110	+140	-165
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -111	49.5 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	+3.5 -111	50 -107	+147	-174
ReBet	+3.5 -116	49.5 -114	+142	-192

Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +3.5 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): Fanatics or BetMGM +3.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Caesars +3.5 at -118 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +3 at -105 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +3.5 at -121 (-1.0%) · TOM +3 at -108 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +138 at Caesars

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): Fanatics or Kalshi +140 (0.4%) · Caesars +138 (0.1%) · DraftKings +136 (-0.3%) · BetMGM +130 (-1.4%) · FanDuel +126 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 49.5 at -112 (0.6%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -114 (0.2%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 52¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $263 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game
FPI	+1.0	+106
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	hasn't seen Illinois and Michigan State's last game
Market (14 books)	+3.0	+157

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	54.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +3.5	-115	-117	+0.3%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+138	+138	+0.1%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.5.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 50.0 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at Marshall

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

Coastal Carolina +3

should be Coastal Carolina +2 · getting 1 pt at Caesars

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Marshall →

Market

Marshall by 2.5TOM, -120

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game

FPI

Marshall by 0.51.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Marshall by 30.4 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game

Nasty Number

Marshall by 20.4 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Coastal Carolina. Sagarin at Marshall by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

66.69.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.21.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60.93.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	57 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	—	-148 58¢	+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Marshall spread	Total (over)	Marshall ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-2.5 -120	57 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	—	-148 58¢	+118 44¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -112	55.5 -110	-143	+117
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -120	55.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-2.5 -112	55.5 -110	-143	+117
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	55.5 -112	-143	+116
Caesars	-3 -110	55.5 -112	-141	+120
Courtside	-2.5 -108	55.5 +100	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	55.5 -102	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	55.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -110	55.5 -115	-132	+110
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -116	55.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -119	55.5 -114	-150	+113

Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +3.0 · -110 at Caesars

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): Caesars +3 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi or TOM +2.5 at +101 (0.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +117

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +120 (0.6%) · Kalshi 44¢ (0.2%) · Fanatics +115 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 57.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -115 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -105 (-4.1%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-4.8%) · Caesars 55.5 at -109 (-5.0%) · Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-5.3%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Coastal Carolina +3.0 · -110 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $62 available; Under 57.5, only $371 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game
FPI	-0.5	-101
Sagarin	-3.0	-137
Massey	hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game
Market (12 books)	-2.5	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	60.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0	-110	-120	+2.2%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+117	+117	-0.1%
Total	Under 57.0	-115	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 57.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East Carolina

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pm

East Carolina -8.5

should be East Carolina -10 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 9.5, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore East Carolina →

Market

East Carolina by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Rice's last game

FPI

East Carolina by 10.51.2 pts our side

Sagarin

East Carolina by 100.6 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen Rice's last game

Nasty Number

East Carolina by 100.5 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean East Carolina. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but East Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.51 pts under the market

Massey

490.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	49.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	49.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	50.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	East Carolina spread	Total (over)	East Carolina ML	Rice ML
TOM	-9.5 -115	49.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	49.5 -121 53¢	-404 79¢	+313 23¢
BetMGM	-9.5 -115	50.5 -108	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -115	50.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-9.5 -115	50.5 -110	-380	+295
Courtside	-9.5 -113	50.5 -108	-412	+339
DraftKings	-9.5 -115	50.5 -110	-425	+330
DraftKings Predictions	-12.5 61¢ -170 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	50.5 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-8.5 -108	49.5 -110	-375	+290
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -111	50.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-10.5 -105	50.5 -111	-429	+290

Marked: best for East Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina -8.5 · -108 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (East Carolina): FanDuel -8.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -9.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 53¢ (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-17.8%).

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · -375 at FanDuel

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 73. Where, best first (East Carolina to win): FanDuel or BetMGM -375 (-1.7%) · Caesars -380 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 79¢ (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -425 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · TOM 49.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (-3.8%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 53¢ (-4.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-4.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is East Carolina -8.5 · -108 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $490 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEast Carolina by 1040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Rice's last game
FPI	-10.5	-371
Sagarin	-10.0	-344
Massey	hasn't seen Rice's last game
Market (9 books)	-9.5	-365

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates -8.5	-108	-112	+0.9%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	-375	-339	-1.7%
Total	Over 49.5	-115	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at Temple

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pm

Temple to win

our data says 62 in 100 · -156

▼Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Temple →

Market

Temple by 3.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game

FPI

Temple by 51.4 pts our side

Sagarin

Temple by 4.50.8 pts our side

Massey

hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game

Nasty Number

Temple by 3.50.1 pts off the market

All 2 systems lean Temple. The Nasty Number is 0.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

61.26.7 pts over the market

Massey

58.43.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.85.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -121 53¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-200 65¢	+159 37¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -117	52.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Temple spread	Total (over)	Temple ML	UConn ML
TOM	-3.5 -115	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -121 53¢	54.5 -116 52¢	-200 65¢	+159 37¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -105	52.5 -108	-160	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -117	52.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	—	52.5 -110	-152	+128
Courtside	-3 -108	53.5 -108	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -115	53.5 -110	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	52.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-3.5 -105	52.5 -110	-156	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 -113	52.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-2.5 -133	53.5 -111	-163	+122

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple -3.0 · -115 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Temple): DraftKings or Fanatics -3 at -115 (0.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -3.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · TOM -3.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 53¢ (-4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.7%).

Not Nasty

Temple to win · -156 at DraftKings

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Temple to win): Fanatics -150 (1.9%) · Caesars -152 (1.6%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -155 (1.1%) · BetMGM -160 (0.4%) · Kalshi 65¢ (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (4.2%) · FanDuel, Caesars or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (3.7%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -110 (1.2%) · TOM 54.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple to win · -156 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTemple by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game
FPI	-5.0	-184
Sagarin	-4.5	-175
Massey	hasn't seen UConn and Temple's last game
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	59.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	-156	-163	+1.0%
Spread	Temple Owls -3.0	-115	-118	+0.6%
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus; total 54.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at California

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Virginia Tech -9.5

should be Virginia Tech -10 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -13

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore California →

Market

Virginia Tech by 9.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and California's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 9.5on the market

Sagarin

Virginia Tech by 45.5 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen California's last game

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 100.5 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Virginia Tech. Sagarin at Virginia Tech by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Virginia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.82.7 pts under the market

Massey

53.61.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	—	-381 78¢
BetOnline.ag	+10 -115	52.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	California spread	Total (over)	California ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+9.5 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+9.5 -112 51¢	53.5 -112 51¢	—	-381 78¢
Bally Bet	+10 -106	52.5 -110	+330	-435
BetMGM	+10 -108	52.5 -108	+310	-400
BetOnline.ag	+10 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+10 -106	52.5 -110	+330	-435
BetRivers	+10 -108	52.5 -112	+325	-455
Caesars	+10.5 -107	52.5 -112	+325	-420
Courtside	+10.5 -103	52.5 -108	+319	-383
DraftKings	+10.5 -105	52.5 -110	+310	-395
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 51¢ -113 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
Fanatics	+10 -105	52.5 -110	+325	-425
FanDuel	+10.5 -120	52.5 -110	+310	-400
Hard Rock Bet	+10.5 -115	52.5 -110	+325	-425
LowVig.ag	+10 -111	52.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+10.5 -111	52.5 -105	+310	-481

Marked: best for Virginia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia Tech -9.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Virginia Tech): TOM -9.5 at -105 (0.7%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (-2.2%) · BetMGM -10 at -110 (-2.3%) · Fanatics -10 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Virginia Tech to win · -381 (78¢) at Kalshi

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 73. Where, best first (Virginia Tech to win): Kalshi 78¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings -395 (-2.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -400 (-2.8%) · Caesars or Fanatics -420 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 80¢ on the app (-456 all-in) (-4.8%).

Not Nasty

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (-0.6%) · Caesars 52.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Virginia Tech -9.5 · -105 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Virginia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5, only $229 available; California Golden Bears ML, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and California's last game
FPI	+9.5	+315
Sagarin	+4.0	+170
Massey	hasn't seen California's last game
Market (13 books)	+9.5	+381

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Tech Hokies -9.5	-105	-108	+0.7%
Moneyline	Virginia Tech Hokies ML	-381	-339	-2.0%
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.2 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at Alabama

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Georgia +1

should be Georgia -0.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 1, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 0.5. 1.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 1TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 1on the market

Sagarin

Alabama by 3.52.5 pts against us

Massey

hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game

Nasty Number

Georgia by 0.51.6 pts off the market

1 of 2 systems lean Georgia. Sagarin at Alabama by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ and Massey haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.41.4 pts over the market

Massey

60.85.8 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

56.81.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-1 -115	55 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -106	56.5 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
TOM	-1 -115	55 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -116 52¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
Bally Bet	+1 -109	56.5 -113	-103	-118
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	56.5 -110	-102	-118
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -106	56.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	+1 -109	56.5 -113	-103	-118
BetRivers	+1 -110	56.5 -114	-104	-121
Caesars	+1.5 -108	56.5 -110	—	—
Courtside	+2.5 -113	56.5 -108	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -115	56.5 -110	+110	-130
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 57¢ -144 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	52¢ -117 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	56.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -118	57.5 -106	-110	-110
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -115	56.5 -110	+100	-120
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -102	56.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -119	56.5 -119	+103	-136
theScore Bet	+1.5 -120	57.5 -105	-110	-110

Marked: best for Georgia, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia +1.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Georgia): TOM +1 at -105 (0.1%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -104 (-3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.5%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-4.9%) · Caesars -1.5 at -112 (-5.3%).

Not Nasty

Georgia to win · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Georgia to win): Kalshi 49¢ (-0.6%) · FanDuel -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.8%) · BetMGM -118 (-4.0%) · Fanatics -120 (-4.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 55 at -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM, DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars 56.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 52¢ (-3.1%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -106 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 77°F, 42% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +1.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Georgia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -1.5, only $44 available; Georgia Bulldogs +1.5, only $3 available; Under 56.5, only $67 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against +1.6 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 56.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 0.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game
FPI	-1.0	-105
Sagarin	-3.5	-161
Massey	hasn't seen Georgia and Alabama's last game
Market (14 books)	-1.0	+110

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Bulldogs +1.0	-105	-105	+0.1%
Moneyline	Georgia Bulldogs ML	-103	-101	-0.6%
Total	Over 55.0	-115	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against +1.6 consensus; total 55.0 here against 56.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at Northwestern

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30am

Northwestern -35.5

should be Northwestern -36 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 35.5.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 35.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ball State and Northwestern's last game

FPI

Northwestern by 39

Sagarin

Northwestern by 39

Massey

hasn't seen Ball State's last game

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 360.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

46.46.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

46.46.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 6.6 points of the book.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35.5 -115	53 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	52.5	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34.5 -115	53 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-35.5 -115	53 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	52.5	—	—
Bally Bet	-34.5 -115	51.5 -107	—	—
BetMGM	-34.5 -110	51.5 -120	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34.5 -115	53 -110	—	—
betPARX	-34.5 -115	51.5 -107	—	—
BetRivers	-34.5 -118	51.5 -108	—	—
Caesars	-34.5 -115	52.5 -113	—	—
Courtside	-34.5 -108	52.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-34.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-35.5 55¢ -132 all-in	51.5 58¢ -150 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-34.5 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-34.5 -118	51.5 -112	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-34.5 -115	51.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-34.5 -111	53 -108	—	—
ReBet	-34.5 -119	52.5 -111	—	—

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -34.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): BetMGM or DraftKings -34.5 at -110 (2.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars -34.5 at -115 (1.6%) · FanDuel -34.5 at -118 (0.9%) · TOM -35.5 at -115 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -35.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.6%).

Blowout line

Northwestern to win · — at Fanatics

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 100, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Kalshi 99¢ (0.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings — (-0.7%).

Off the band

the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 53 at -110 (4.2%) · Caesars 52.5 at -109 (3.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (2.8%) · BetMGM 51.5 at +100 (2.7%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (2.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $76 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -34.5 consensus.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 3630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ball State and Northwestern's last game
FPI	-39.0	—
Sagarin	-39.0	—
Massey	hasn't seen Ball State's last game
Market (13 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	46.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -34.5	-110	-123	+2.7%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	—	—	priced at 100 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 53.0	-110	-130	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -34.5 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.1 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pm

App State -9.5

should be App State -9.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 9.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game

FPI

App State by 9.5

Sagarin

App State by 10.5

Massey

hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game

Nasty Number

App State by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.13.9 pts under the market

Massey

543 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.60.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	51.5 -107 50¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -121 53¢	51.5 -107 50¢	-381 78¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -113	51.5 -112	-420	+310
BetMGM	-9.5 -110	51.5 -105	-350	+280
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
betPARX	-9.5 -113	51.5 -112	-420	+310
BetRivers	-9.5 -114	51.5 -113	-420	+310
Caesars	-9.5 -110	51.5 -110	-380	+300
Courtside	-8.5 -108	51.5 -108	-350	+293
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	51.5 -110	-360	+285
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 60¢ -163 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	51.5 -105	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	51.5 -110	-375	+290
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -110	51.5 -110	-425	+300
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -106	51 -108	—	—
ReBet	-9.5 -125	51.5 -109	-420	+280

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Old Dominion +9.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Old Dominion): Kalshi or BetMGM +9.5 at -107 (-1.6%) · Caesars +9.5 at -109 (-2.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +9.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Old Dominion to win · +313 (23¢) at Kalshi

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Old Dominion to win): Kalshi 23¢ (0.1%) · Caesars +300 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +290 (-1.3%) · DraftKings +285 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +280 (-2.0%).

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51 at -110 (-1.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 50¢ (-2.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Caesars 51.5 at -110 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 2.3 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game
FPI	-9.5	-310
Sagarin	-10.5	-355
Massey	hasn't seen Old Dominion's last game
Market (13 books)	-9.5	-351

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	50.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +9.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+313	+311	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at Massachusetts

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pm

Miami (OH) -2.5

should be Miami (OH) -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami (OH) by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Miami (OH) by 2.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game

FPI

Miami (OH) by 0.5

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 4.5

Massey

hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 20.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.71.7 pts over the market

Massey

49.81.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.81.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+2.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 -116 52¢	+114 45¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	48 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	+2.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 -116 52¢	+114 45¢	—
BetMGM	+2.5 -108	48.5 -110	+110	-130
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -110	48 -110	—	—
Caesars	+2.5 -110	48.5 -110	+113	-134
Courtside	+2.5 -108	49.5 -108	+112	-127
DraftKings	+2.5 -110	49.5 -110	+110	-130
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 59¢ -157 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 -110	48.5 -110	+110	-130
FanDuel	+2.5 -105	48.5 -110	+114	-137
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -106	48 -108	—	—
ReBet	+2.5 -116	48.5 -119	+104	-138

Marked: best for the Massachusetts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts +2.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Massachusetts): FanDuel or TOM +2.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.1%).

Not Nasty

Massachusetts to win · +110 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): FanDuel or Kalshi +114 (-0.7%) · Caesars +113 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -110 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 52¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-2.6%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen +2.5, only $200 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.5, only $208 available; Miami (OH) RedHawks ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game
FPI	+0.5	+102
Sagarin	+4.5	+181
Massey	hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game
Market (9 books)	+2.5	+121

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UMass Minutemen +2.5	-105	-103	-0.4%
Moneyline	UMass Minutemen ML	+110	+117	-1.6%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.6 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at Toledo

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Toledo -19.5

should be Toledo -19 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 19.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 19

Sagarin

Toledo by 22

Massey

hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game

Nasty Number

Toledo by 190.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.89.2 pts under the market

Massey

57.42.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.63.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.4 points of the book.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-19.5 -115	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5 -116 52¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Pinnacle	-18.5 -108	55 -110	-1113	+652

All 17 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-19.5 -115	55 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-19.5 -116 52¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	+841 10¢
Bally Bet	-17.5 -129	54.5 -117	-2000	+900
BetMGM	-18.5 -110	54.5 -118	-1200	+825
BetOnline.ag	-18.5 -115	55 -110	—	—
betPARX	-17.5 -129	54.5 -117	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-17.5 -132	54.5 -118	-2000	+900
Caesars	-18.5 -110	55 -110	-1450	+800
Courtside	-19.5 -108	55.5 +100	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-19.5 -110	55.5 -102	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	—	54.5 56¢ -138 all-in	94¢ -2401 all-in	13¢ +566 all-in
Fanatics	-19.5 -110	55 -110	-1400	+850
FanDuel	-18.5 -105	54.5 -115	-1450	+810
Hard Rock Bet	-17.5 -130	54.5 -115	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-18.5 -111	55 -108	—	—
Pinnacle	-18.5 -108	55 -110	-1113	+652
ReBet	-20.5 -111	54.5 -125	-1299	+610

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +19.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Buffalo): TOM +19.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +19.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi +19.5 at 51¢ (-1.6%) · Caesars +18.5 at -109 (-2.7%) · BetMGM +18.5 at -110 (-2.9%).

Blowout line

Buffalo to win · +850 at DraftKings

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buffalo to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi +850 (0.5%) · BetMGM or FanDuel +825 (0.2%) · Caesars +800 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 13¢ on the app (+566 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 12 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 54.5 at -102 (1.8%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 55 at -110 (1.3%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -105 (1.1%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -118 (0.7%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 53¢ (0.0%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Buffalo).

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -18.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 1940% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game
FPI	-19.0	-835
Sagarin	-22.0	-1228
Massey	hasn't seen Buffalo and Toledo's last game
Market (14 books)	-19.5	-1086

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +19.5	-105	-105	-0.1%
Moneyline	Buffalo Bulls ML	+850	+810	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Buffalo Bulls since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -18.5 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at Ohio

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Ohio -3.5

should be Ohio -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Ohio →

Market

Ohio by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game

FPI

Ohio by 4

Sagarin

Ohio by 3.5

Massey

hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game

Nasty Number

Ohio by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

43.14.4 pts under the market

Massey

49.82.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.51 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -108	47 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Ohio spread	Total (over)	Ohio ML	Central Michigan ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-3.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-4 -104	47.5 -113	-177	+145
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	47.5 -105	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -108	47 -110	—	—
betPARX	-4 -104	47.5 -113	-177	+145
BetRivers	-4 -106	47.5 -114	-180	+143
Caesars	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-170	+144
Courtside	-3.5 -108	47.5 -108	-171	+148
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	47.5 -110	-175	+145
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 58¢ -150 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	47 -110	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	46.5 -110	-172	+142
Hard Rock Bet	-4.5 +105	47.5 -110	-175	+145
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -104	47 -108	—	—
ReBet	-3.5 -111	47.5 -109	-194	+144

Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -3.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ohio): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 52¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.2%).

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · -175 (62¢) at Kalshi

We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Ohio to win): Caesars -170 (-0.4%) · FanDuel -172 (-0.7%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -175 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 65¢ on the app (-203 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars 47 at -110 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 52¢ (-2.6%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game
FPI	-4.0	-173
Sagarin	-3.5	-152
Massey	hasn't seen Central Michigan and Ohio's last game
Market (13 books)	-3.5	-161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	46.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -3.5	-110	-104	-1.5%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-175	-167	-1.1%
Total	Under 47.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North Texas

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Over 60

should be 62.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 60.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 27.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore North Texas →

Market

North Texas by 27TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Charlotte and North Texas's last game

FPI

North Texas by 26

Sagarin

North Texas by 29

Massey

hasn't seen Charlotte's last game

Nasty Number

North Texas by 25.51.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

633 pts over the market

Massey

66.76.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

64.84.8 pts over the market

Over 60 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-27 -115	60 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-27 -115	60 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	North Texas spread	Total (over)	North Texas ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-27 -115	60 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-2580 96¢	—
Bally Bet	-24.5 -112	61.5 -105	—	—
BetMGM	-25 -112	59.5 -110	—	+1850
BetOnline.ag	-27 -115	60 -110	—	—
betPARX	-24.5 -112	61.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-24.5 -114	61.5 -107	—	—
Caesars	—	60 -110	—	+1500
Courtside	-24.5 +100	60.5 -108	—	+1999
DraftKings	-24.5 -102	60.5 -110	—	+1800
DraftKings Predictions	-27.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics	-26 -110	60.5 -110	—	+2000
FanDuel	-25.5 -106	60.5 -105	—	+1600
Hard Rock Bet	-24.5 -110	61.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-27 -111	60 -108	—	—
ReBet	-26.5 -116	60.5 -114	-3030	+850

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +27.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): TOM +27 at -105 (1.1%) · Fanatics +26 at -110 (-1.9%) · BetMGM +25 at -105 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +27.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%) · FanDuel +25.5 at -114 (-3.3%).

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +1694

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Fanatics +2000 (0.2%) · BetMGM or DraftKings +1850 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +1600 (-0.9%) · Caesars +1500 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 8¢ on the app (+900 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 60.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 67. That's 4.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 59.5 at -110 (4.7%) · Caesars or TOM 60 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -105 (3.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 60.5 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 60.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 62.5, only $5 available; Under 62.5, only $5 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $89 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -25.3 consensus.

TOM: total 60.0 here against 60.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Texas by 25.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Charlotte and North Texas's last game
FPI	-26.0	-1954
Sagarin	-29.0	-3124
Massey	hasn't seen Charlotte's last game
Market (13 books)	-27.0	-3418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.0	64.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +27.0	-105	-110	+1.1%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+1694	+1916	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -25.3 consensus; total 60.0 here against 60.6 consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre Dame

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Notre Dame -37.5

should be Notre Dame -38 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 37.5.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 37.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 40.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 36.5

Massey

hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 380.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.61.4 pts under the market

Massey

53.50.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

53.10.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-37.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-37.5 -115	54 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5	—	—
Bally Bet	-36 -112	55.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-37 -108	55.5 -105	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-37.5 -115	55.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-36 -112	55.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-36 -113	55.5 -112	—	—
Caesars	-36.5 -114	55.5 -112	—	—
Courtside	-36.5 -108	55.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-36.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-37.5 55¢ -132 all-in	54.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-37 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-36.5 -115	54.5 -114	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-36.5 -105	55.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-37.5 -111	55.5 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Notre Dame -36.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Notre Dame): DraftKings -36.5 at -110 (0.7%) · BetMGM -37 at -108 (0.3%) · Caesars -36.5 at -114 (-0.2%) · Fanatics -37 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -36.5 at -115 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Notre Dame to win · —

We make it 99 in 100 to win, the price says 99, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Notre Dame to win): Kalshi 99¢ (0.3%) · Fanatics — (-0.2%).

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 54 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -114 (-2.7%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -105 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-4.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -36.0, now -36.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame).

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -37.5 here against -36.6 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 3830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	-40.5	—
Sagarin	-36.5	—
Massey	hasn't seen Stanford and Notre Dame's last game
Market (12 books)	-37.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -36.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML	—	—	priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30.

TOM: spread -37.5 here against -36.6 consensus; total 54.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at Oregon

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Oregon -10.5

should be Oregon -12.5 · getting 2 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12.5. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 10.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Oregon by 10

FPI

Oregon by 13.5

Sagarin

Oregon by 14.5

Massey

Oregon by 14.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 12.51.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

63.84.3 pts over the market

Massey

600.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

61.92.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 59.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10.5 -115	59.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	60.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
BetOnline.ag	-12 -110	60.5 -110	—	—

All 17 books

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
TOM	-10.5 -115	59.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-10.5 -116 52¢	60.5 -112 51¢	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-11 -113	61.5 -108	-420	+320
BetMGM	-11.5 -108	61.5 -105	-450	+350
BetOnline.ag	-12 -110	60.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-11 -113	61.5 -108	-420	+320
BetRivers	-11 -113	61.5 -109	-420	+300
Caesars	-11.5 -108	60.5 -110	-480	+370
Courtside	-11.5 -108	61.5 -108	-426	+350
DraftKings	-11.5 -110	61.5 -110	-440	+340
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 55¢ -132 all-in	60.5 51¢ -113 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	61 -110	-475	+360
FanDuel	-11.5 -110	61.5 -105	-480	+360
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	61.5 -110	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-12 -106	60.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-12.5 -116	60.5 -114	-599	+370
theScore Bet	-11.5 -110	61.5 -105	-550	+380

Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -10.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): TOM or Kalshi -10.5 at -115 (-0.5%) · BetMGM or Caesars -11.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics -11.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -445 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): Kalshi 80¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings -440 (-1.0%) · BetMGM -450 (-1.3%) · Fanatics, FanDuel or Caesars -475 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 59.5 at -110 (2.5%) · Caesars 60.5 at -110 (0.1%) · Kalshi 60.5 at 51¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-1.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 59°F.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UCLA).

Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -11.5 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 61.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 12.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-338
FPI	-13.5	-442
Sagarin	-14.5	-513
Massey	-14.5	-519
Market (14 books)	-10.5	-415

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -10.5	-115	-112	-0.5%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-445	-414	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.5	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -11.5 consensus; total 59.5 here against 61.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pm

Under 57

should be 54.9 · getting 2.1 pts · was 55.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 35.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 35TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 33.5

Sagarin

Ohio State by 29

Massey

hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 34.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

54.22.8 pts under the market

Massey

51.85.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

534 pts under the market

Under 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-35 -105	57 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34.5 -110	56 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-35 -105	57 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	56.5 -112 51¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-35.5 -110	55.5 -114	—	—
BetMGM	-34.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34.5 -110	56 -110	—	—
betPARX	-35.5 -110	55.5 -114	—	—
BetRivers	-35.5 -112	55.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-35.5 -113	56 -112	—	—
Courtside	-35.5 -108	55.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -110	55.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-34.5 56¢ -138 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-35 -105	56 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-34.5 -118	55.5 -110	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-35.5 -110	55.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-34.5 -106	56 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +35.5 · -109 at Caesars

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Maryland): Caesars +35.5 at -109 (1.9%) · DraftKings +35.5 at -110 (1.6%) · FanDuel +34.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or TOM +35 at -115 (-1.8%) · BetMGM +34.5 at -108 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Maryland to win · +6201

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Maryland to win): Kalshi 1¢ (0.2%) · Fanatics +4500 (-0.9%).

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 52. That's 4.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -110 (3.0%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (1.3%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (0.5%) · Caesars 56 at -112 (0.0%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-0.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 34.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-33.5	—
Sagarin	-29.0	-3140
Massey	hasn't seen Maryland and Ohio State's last game
Market (12 books)	-35.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	53.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +35.5	-109	-117	+1.9%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+6201	+7808	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-124	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 57.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at Kentucky

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

LSU -9.5

should be LSU -10 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9.5, the Nasty Number says LSU by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

LSU by 9.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kentucky's last game

FPI

LSU by 9.5

Sagarin

LSU by 4

Massey

hasn't seen Kentucky's last game

Nasty Number

LSU by 100.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.24.8 pts under the market

Massey

49.64.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.44.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9.5 -112	54 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	—
BetOnline.ag	+10 -110	55 -115	—	—

All 17 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
TOM	+9.5 -112	54 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -112 51¢	+280 25¢	—
Bally Bet	+10 -113	54.5 -115	+295	-385
BetMGM	+9.5 -105	54.5 -110	+300	-375
BetOnline.ag	+10 -110	55 -115	—	—
betPARX	+10 -113	54.5 -115	+295	-385
BetRivers	+10 -113	54.5 -117	+290	-400
Caesars	—	54.5 -110	—	—
Courtside	+10 -108	54.5 -108	+329	-397
DraftKings	+10 -110	54.5 -110	+320	-410
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in	81¢ -488 all-in
Fanatics	+10 -105	55 -110	+310	-400
FanDuel	+10.5 -122	55.5 -105	+280	-360
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -105	54.5 -115	+300	-375
LowVig.ag	+10 -106	55 -114	—	—
ReBet	+10.5 -119	54.5 -114	+285	-429
theScore Bet	+9.5 -110	55.5 -105	+280	-360

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

LSU -9.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (LSU): TOM -9.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · BetMGM -9.5 at -115 (-2.4%) · FanDuel -10.5 at +100 (-2.6%) · DraftKings -10 at -110 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -10 at -115 (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

LSU to win · -360 at FanDuel

We make it 77 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 77 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (LSU to win): FanDuel -360 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -375 (-2.4%) · Fanatics -400 (-3.4%) · DraftKings -410 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-6.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -115 (2.4%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (2.3%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (1.4%) · DraftKings or Caesars 54.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +9.5, only $220 available; LSU Tigers -9.5, only $14 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $328 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kentucky's last game
FPI	+9.5	+311
Sagarin	+4.0	+171
Massey	hasn't seen Kentucky's last game
Market (14 books)	+9.5	+352

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	LSU Tigers -9.5	-108	-104	-0.9%
Moneyline	LSU Tigers ML	-360	-327	-1.7%
Total	Under 54.0	-115	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 4.6.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.8 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at Virginia

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Virginia -8.5

should be Virginia -9 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 8.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 9

Sagarin

Virginia by 10

Massey

hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game

Nasty Number

Virginia by 90.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

446 pts under the market

Massey

50.30.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.22.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-8.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -115	50 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Virginia spread	Total (over)	Virginia ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-8.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -112 51¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢
Bally Bet	-8.5 -109	50.5 -113	-360	+275
BetMGM	-9.5 -108	50.5 -108	-325	+270
BetOnline.ag	-8.5 -115	50 -110	—	—
betPARX	-8.5 -109	50.5 -113	-360	+275
BetRivers	-8.5 -110	50.5 -114	-375	+275
Caesars	-9.5 -110	50.5 -110	-335	+265
Courtside	-8.5 -108	50.5 -108	-331	+277
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	50.5 -110	-340	+270
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 57¢ -144 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics	-9 -110	50.5 -110	-350	+275
FanDuel	-8.5 -115	50.5 -110	-345	+270
Hard Rock Bet	-8.5 -110	50.5 -110	-350	+275
LowVig.ag	-8.5 -111	50 -108	—	—
ReBet	-9.5 -111	49.5 -116	-340	+234

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -8.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): DraftKings -8.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · BetMGM -9.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · Fanatics -9 at -110 (-2.5%) · Caesars -9.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · FanDuel or TOM -8.5 at -115 (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Virginia to win · -325 at BetMGM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Virginia to win): BetMGM -325 (-1.1%) · Caesars -335 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -340 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -345 (-2.2%) · Fanatics -350 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM, DraftKings or Caesars 50.5 at -110 (0.3%) · TOM 50 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 51¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game
FPI	-9.0	-309
Sagarin	-10.0	-338
Massey	hasn't seen Syracuse and Virginia's last game
Market (13 books)	-8.5	-314

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	47.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -8.5	-110	-101	-2.0%
Moneyline	Virginia Cavaliers ML	-325	-306	-1.1%
Total	Under 50.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at Utah

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pm

Utah -15

should be Utah -15 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 15TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas's last game

FPI

Utah by 15

Sagarin

Utah by 12

Massey

hasn't seen Kansas's last game

Nasty Number

Utah by 150.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

51.8on the market

Massey

54.82.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.31.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-15 -112	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	52.5 -107 50¢	-719 87¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-15 -112	52 -110	—	—

All 15 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-15 -112	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	52.5 -107 50¢	-719 87¢	—
Bally Bet	-14.5 -109	51.5 -109	-670	+460
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	52.5 -102	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-15 -112	52 -110	—	—
betPARX	-14.5 -109	51.5 -109	-670	+460
BetRivers	-14.5 -110	51.5 -110	-670	+450
Caesars	—	52 -110	-750	+500
Courtside	-15.5 -108	52.5 -108	-715	+545
DraftKings	-15.5 -110	52.5 -110	-750	+525
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 56¢ -138 all-in	89¢ -1011 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-15 -110	52 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-14.5 -105	51.5 -110	-630	+450
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -110	51.5 -110	-650	+450
ReBet	-15.5 -111	51.5 -116	-800	+450

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas +15.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kansas): DraftKings +15.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · TOM +15 at -108 (-1.8%) · Fanatics +15 at -110 (-2.3%) · BetMGM +14.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -115 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kansas to win · +525 at DraftKings

We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 16, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kansas to win): DraftKings +525 (-0.4%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or Caesars +500 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +450 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-4.4%).

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -102 (-1.0%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 52 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 50¢ (-2.2%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F, 26% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -16.5, only $65 available; Kansas Jayhawks +16.5, only $15 available; Under 52.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 1530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas's last game
FPI	-15.0	-545
Sagarin	-12.0	-411
Massey	hasn't seen Kansas's last game
Market (12 books)	-15.0	-614

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	53.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas Jayhawks +15.0	-108	-100	-1.8%
Moneyline	Kansas Jayhawks ML	+525	+541	priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona State

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm

Hawai'i +21.5

should be Hawai'i +19 · getting 2.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 21.5.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 21.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Arizona State by 14

Sagarin

Arizona State by 23

Massey

hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 192.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 21.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.93.6 pts under the market

Massey

51.5on the market

Nasty Number

49.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-21.5 -112	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-1684 94¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-23.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—

All 16 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Hawai'i ML
TOM	-21.5 -112	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-1684 94¢	—
Bally Bet	-20.5 -118	52.5 -107	-2000	+900
BetMGM	-22.5 -110	51.5 -118	-2500	+1300
BetOnline.ag	-23.5 -105	51.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-20.5 -118	52.5 -107	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-20.5 -121	52.5 -109	-2000	+900
Caesars	—	51.5 -110	-2500	+1100
Courtside	-23.5 -106	51.5 -108	-2733	+1522
DraftKings	-22.5 -108	51.5 -110	-2800	+1300
DraftKings Predictions	-21.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	96¢ -4900 all-in	11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics	-22.5 -110	51.5 -110	-2200	+1200
FanDuel	-21.5 -110	52.5 -110	-2100	+1000
Hard Rock Bet	-20.5 -120	52.5 -105	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-23.5 -101	51.5 -108	—	—
ReBet	-23.5 -116	51.5 -119	-2273	+800

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i +22.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Hawai'i): Fanatics or BetMGM +22.5 at -110 (6.8%) · DraftKings +22.5 at -112 (6.4%) · TOM +21.5 at -108 (5.7%) · FanDuel +21.5 at -110 (5.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +21.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Hawai'i to win · +1300 at BetMGM

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): BetMGM or DraftKings +1300 (3.9%) · Fanatics +1200 (3.3%) · Caesars +1100 (2.7%) · FanDuel +1000 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-2.0%).

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (1.3%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -102 (0.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -19.0, now -22.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward Arizona State). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils -21.5, only $146 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +21.5, only $0 available; Over 50.5, only $135 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -22.1 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 1940% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game
FPI	-14.0	-471
Sagarin	-23.0	-1322
Massey	hasn't seen Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game
Market (13 books)	-21.5	-1836

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +22.5	-110	-145	+6.8%
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	+1300	+807	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -22.1 consensus; total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 9-10-1, -1.7u · Nasty Dogs 1-1, +0.9u · +0.1 pts vs the close on 20 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks9-10-1-1.69 units · -9% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-1+0.92 units · +46% ROI

Vs the close+0.1 ptsbeat the close on 11 of 22 posted picks

Open0calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

5-4-1 · +0.63 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

LostCincinnati +7.0Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats7-34-1.00

WonUCF +11.5UCF Knights at Houston Cougars17-27+0.93

WonJames Madison -15.5Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukes17-45+0.91

PushOhio -3.0Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden Flashes13-10+0.00

LostLouisiana -6.0Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns20-23-1.00

LostMiami (OH) -10.0Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawks24-20-1.00

WonSan Diego State +4.5Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs29-31+0.94

WonSouth Alabama -12.5UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars35-52+0.91

LostSouth Florida -5.5Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls17-13-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostWashington Commanders MLIndianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders30-13-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty6-746%-1.47 units13 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 13. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

2-3 · -1.14 units

WonCleveland Browns +3.0Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

WonBaylor +3.5Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils55-19+0.91

LostIllinois -9.5Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting Illini24-17-1.00

LostMassachusetts -5.0Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen38-14-1.00

LostPhiladelphia Eagles +3.5Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles24-20-1.00

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

7-3 · +3.52 units

WonTulsa +3.0North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

LostOver 45.5Navy Midshipmen at Air Force Falcons9-14-1.00

LostUnder 61.0Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams56-26-1.00

WonUnder 47.0Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa Hawkeyes31-14+0.91

WonOver 46.5Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29-31+0.91

WonOver 56.5Louisville Cardinals at NC State Wolfpack28-31+0.91

LostOver 50.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M Aggies7-34-1.00

WonUNLV +1.5California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebels31-39+0.86

WonFresno State +2.5Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State Cougars26-6+0.91

WonJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals22-17+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	9-10-1	47.4%	-1.7 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-1	50.0%	+0.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	6-7	46.2%	-1.5 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	28-32	46.7%	-6.8 u
Not Nasty	228 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-04 13:56.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 197 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	11.12	288
FPI	11.25	225
SP+	11.26	225
Massey	11.31	168
Sagarin	12.42	278

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.50	0.02	171
Massey	1.00	0.00	0.01	168
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.00	171
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.05	197

The line archive, 288 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 98, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 273 games. The close misses the final by 11.07, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.56, Pinnacle's close by 11.04. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.

The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 33 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	10.42	50
Massey	10.63	33
nfelo	10.84	50
Sagarin	10.88	50
FPI	11.17	35

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.03	33
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.00	33
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.04	33
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	33

The line archive, 50 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 16, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.73 points better than the close on average over 45 games. The close misses the final by 10.40, the open by 10.54, our raw ratings number by 10.89, Pinnacle's close by 10.40. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.00, Polymarket 9.50, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.06.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.

The head start. 114 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 46 times, against it 26, average 0.42 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 59.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
ratings 0%	311	10.63	10.53	0-0
ratings 5%	311	10.56	10.53	0-0
ratings 15%	311	10.42	10.53	0-0
ratings 45%	311	10.05	10.53	1-1
Sagarin half a vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Sagarin no vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
FPI a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Massey a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.

Closing line value

+0.08Sides: pts vs close, 28 bets, beat it 54%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 120 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 50 of 120 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 65. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders	Under	48	48	+0.0	same side
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks	Under	43.5	42.5	+1.0	no call
New York Jets at Chicago Bears	New York +3	3	3	+0.0	no call
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	Under	48.5	48.5	+0.0	same side
Air Force at Northern Illinois	Over	47.4	48.5	+1.1	no call
Georgia at Alabama	Alabama Crimson +1.6	1.6	1.6	+0.0	no call
Illinois at Michigan State	Michigan State +3.2	3.2	3.5	-0.3	no call
LSU at Kentucky	Under	54.8	53.5	+1.3	no call
Old Dominion at App State	Appalachian State -7	-7	-9.2	+2.2	no call
Tulane at Army	Tulane Green +5.5	5.5	5.5	+0.0	no call
UConn at Temple	Over	52.8	54.5	+1.7	no call
Wake Forest at NC State	Wake Forest Demon -2.9	-2.9	-4	+1.1	no call

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 239 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.9 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	176	13.4	55-66 (45%)	35-36 (49%)
Massey	178	12.8	39-44 (47%)	15-24 (38%)
The blend	181	12.9	40-46 (47%)	18-25 (42%)

NFL, 48 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.6 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	44	10.8	11-16 (41%)	4-5 (44%)
FPI	42	10.1	10-3 (77%)	6-0 (100%)
The blend	44	10.0	10-7 (59%)	3-2 (60%)

The detailed numbers

+0.08Avg points vs close

54%Beat the close

We said	Bets	Predicted	Actual
55-60%	20	56%	50%

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

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For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

60 priced · 31 a little nasty · audit clean

4 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

We read 60 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 4 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 5:11pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 2.9Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun Devilstoward Arizona State Sun Devilswith the public
→ 2.6Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden Bearstoward California Golden Bearsagainst the public
→ 2.5Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky Hilltopperstoward Western Kentucky Hilltoppersagainst the public
→ 2.3Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State Mountaineerstoward Appalachian State Mountaineerswith the public
→ 2.2Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron Zipstoward Eastern Michigan Eagleswith the public
→ 2.0Tulane Green Wave at Army Black Knightstoward Tulane Green Waveagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.89Points off per game at that weight

10.89The market on its own

238Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 6%, give or take 20% (one standard error, 238 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
nfelo	58	10.12
The market	346	10.91
Massey	209	11.00
FPI	268	11.07
SP+	225	11.26
Sagarin	336	12.01

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	153-144	52%
1.5 to 3.0	6-10	38%
3.0 to 5.0	10-11	48%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 897118 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.23 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
DraftKings	407	1.49
FanDuel	445	1.45
Kalshi	246	1.42
BetRivers	426	1.37
MyBookie.ag	290	1.37
Bally Bet	218	1.33
betPARX	218	1.32
BetOnline.ag	410	1.32
LowVig.ag	400	1.31
ReBet	228	1.24
BetUS	297	1.23
Bovada	361	1.18
Courtside	176	1.16
theScore Bet	192	1.15
Fanatics	377	1.14
BetMGM	410	1.14
Pinnacle	362	1.13
Hard Rock Bet	213	1.11
BetAnything	164	1.10
Caesars	334	1.08
TOM	389	1.05
Fliff	188	0.87
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	47	0.70
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	47	0.66
Polymarket	40	0.55

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated today
FPI NFL updated yesterday
Massey college updated yesterday
Massey nfl updated yesterday
SP+ updated 6 days ago
Sagarin updated today
Sagarin NFL updated 2 days ago
nfelo updated 2 days ago

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sun Oct 4

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.