Nasty Picks
Arizona State at Texas A&MTexas A&M -14.5-104+3.1%sat 11:00 amNasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Oklahoma at MichiganMichigan to win+183+3.6%sat 11:00 amCalifornia at SyracuseCalifornia to win+140+3.2%sat 2:30 pmAlmost Nasty
UNLV at North TexasOver 57should be 58.7 · getting 1.6 ptssat 2:45 pmBowling Green at NebraskaUnder 52should be 50.4 · getting 1.6 ptssat 6:00 pmLouisiana Tech at LSUUnder 55.5should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 ptssat 6:30 pmSouthern Miss at AuburnUnder 55should be 53 · getting 1.8 ptssat 6:45 pmArkansas at UtahOver 57should be 58.9 · getting 1.7 ptssat 9:15 pmRutgers at Boston CollegeLean Rutgers to winour data says 44 in 100 · +145A littlefri 6:30 pmBuck's Take
Cleared the bar: 1 game made it this week. It's up top.
Worth a look: 5 totals, 2 over and 3 under, 3 of them in blowout games where the total is mostly garbage time. These meet the Nasty Pick rule on paper: every source on the same side, and at least 1.5 pts of value after the market gets its say.
Why they're not picks yet: It's September and the ratings are mostly last year's teams. A Nasty Pick needs the edge after the price, the ratings in agreement, at least 4 books making the market, and somewhere we can bet it. Candidates have the agreement but not the rest, and the all-sources rule itself is still being graded (0 totals and 0 sides so far). Stale numbers are proven and switch on inside 48 hours.
Moved since the last run: Up: Falcons at Steelers (Held, QB out, was Waiting).
Half Nasty (betting anyway): Buck likes Bowling Green at Nebraska, Under 52 (the models say 44) and UNLV at North Texas, Over 57 (the models say 65).
Today
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, SMU at Florida StateSMU Mustangs at Florida State SeminolesCFB 6:30 pmLean Under 54.5should be 54.1 · getting 0.5 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · Under
Not Nasty. Market says SMU by 2.5, we say SMU by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 29% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +109 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +111 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +215 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida State Seminoles +2.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Florida State Seminoles ML | +123 | +126 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wed Sep 9
1 gameNothing worth betting yet.New England Patriots at Seattle SeahawksNFL wed 9 sep, 7:20 pmNo betmarket says Seahawks by 3.5, our data says Seahawks by 3.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3.5, we say Seahawks by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 44.5 -105 | -179 | +156 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Also out: Khalil Jacobs (LB, Patriots), Bryce Baringer (P, Patriots).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -162 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -3.5 | -110 | +111 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -180 | -155 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Thu Sep 10
2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles RamsNFL thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm · neutralLean 49ers to winour data says 40 in 100 · +164 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -200 65¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 48 -111 | -197 | +171 |
Also out: Keagen Trost (OT, Rams), Justin Dedich (G, Rams), Alex Johnson (CB, Rams) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -165 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +164 | +151 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Florida A&M Rattlers at Miami HurricanesCFB thu 10 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Florida A&M Rattlers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Florida A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -126 54¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (4 books) | -54.0 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Florida A&M Rattlers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fri Sep 11
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Rutgers, Rutgers at Boston CollegeRutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College EaglesCFB fri 11 sep, 6:30 pmLean Rutgers to winour data says 44 in 100 · +145 · a price bet, they lose more often than notA Little Nasty · Rutgers
A Little Nasty, Rutgers. Market says Boston College by 3.5, we say Boston College by 2. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Rutgers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -106 | -170 | +144 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F.
Opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. Still a play at the current number; not at +3.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +137 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -198 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +173 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -154 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML | +145 | +125 | +3.6% |
| Spread | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +3.5 | -115 | -127 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Rutgers Scarlet Knights since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Missouri Tigers at Kansas JayhawksCFB fri 11 sep, 7:00 pmLean Over 50should be 50.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 51A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says Missouri by 5.5, we say Missouri by 6. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -112 | 50 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -118 | 50 -109 | +176 | -212 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened +7.0, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Kansas).
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +292 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +152 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +250 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.5 | +190 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers -5.5 | -108 | -102 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | -217 | -192 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-05 21:50; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Villanova Wildcats at Louisville CardinalsCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Villanova Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Villanova ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
Opened -35.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Louisville).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -37.0 | -2475 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Louisville Cardinals since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 1.0.
Villanova Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Richmond Spiders at NC State WolfpackCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Richmond Spiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -30.5 | -2963 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Richmond Spiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Norfolk State Spartans at Virginia CavaliersCFB fri 11 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Norfolk State Spartans, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Norfolk State Spartans is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sat Sep 12
74 gamesBest: Texas A&M -14.5, Nasty PickArizona State Sun Devils at Texas A&M AggiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amTexas A&M -14.5should be Texas A&M -15.5 · getting 1 pt · -104 at TOMNasty Pick
Nasty Pick. Take Texas A&M -14.5 at -104 at TOM. Market says Texas A&M by 14.5, we say Texas A&M by 15.5.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arizona State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -104 | 51.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -104 | 51.5 -112 | -684 | +459 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -809 |
| FPI | -17.5 | -732 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -806 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies -14.5 | -104 | -118 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | -662 | -555 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Oklahoma Sooners at Michigan WolverinesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amMichigan to winour data says 39 in 100 to win · +183 at TOM · a price bet, they lose more often than notNasty Dog
Take Michigan to win at +183 at TOM. Market says Oklahoma by 5.5, we say Oklahoma by 4.5.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 43.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -111 | 43 -117 | +179 | -216 |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 75°F.
Opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +6.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -118 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.5 | +193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | +183 | +157 | +3.6% |
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines +5.5 | -108 | -120 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-05 22:46; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
California Golden Bears at Syracuse OrangeCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmCalifornia to winour data says 45 in 100 to win · +140 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNasty Dog
Take California to win at +140. Market says Syracuse by 3, we say Syracuse by 2.
| Syracuse spread | Total (over) | Syracuse ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -118 | 56 -117 | -168 | +142 |
Opened +2.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 5.6 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +3.5. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +133 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +140 | +123 | +3.2% |
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.6 toward Syracuse Orange since 09-06 00:33; total has moved up 2.8.
UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean GreenCFB sat 12 sep, 2:45 pmOver 57should be 58.7 · getting 1.6 pts at TOMAlmost Nasty
Almost Nasty. Over 57: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 58.7, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -116 | 57 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 -121 53¢ | +166 36¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -106 | 57 -109 | +158 | -188 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 98°F.
Opened +6.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward North Texas).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +420 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +149 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +138 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 64.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +155 | +152 | +0.5% |
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +4.0 | -116 | -110 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-06 09:50.
TOM matches the consensus.
Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmUnder 52should be 50.4 · getting 1.6 pts at TOM · was 52.5Almost Nasty
Almost Nasty. Under 52: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 50.4, 1.6 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 52 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -29 -108 | 52 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.5 | -2684 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -2042 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | -8590 |
| Market (12 books) | -28.5 | -2074 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +28.5 | -105 | +141 | -9.7% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +2400 | +3449 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.8 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmUnder 55.5should be 53.4 · getting 2.1 ptsAlmost Nasty
Almost Nasty. Under 55.5: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 53.4, 2.1 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Louisiana Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34 -116 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -31.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward LSU).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -6293 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6391 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -27247 |
| Market (12 books) | -34.5 | -4043 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +34.5 | -110 | +147 | -11.9% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | +4236 | +8668 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 12:20.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmUnder 55should be 53 · getting 1.8 pts at TOM · was 52.5Almost Nasty
Almost Nasty. Under 55: SP+ and Massey both say under; blended with the market that's 53, 1.8 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -108 | 55 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -115 | 55 -106 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 47% chance of rain.
Opened -29.5, now -32.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Auburn).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.5 | -10097 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -933 |
| Sagarin | -39.5 | -25812 |
| Market (12 books) | -32.5 | -2827 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers -32.5 | -108 | -164 | +10.2% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | -9000 | -7979 | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-06 12:20; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesCFB sat 12 sep, 9:15 pmOver 57should be 58.9 · getting 1.7 pts · was 56.5Almost Nasty
Almost Nasty. Over 57: SP+ and Massey both say over; blended with the market that's 58.9, 1.7 pts of value. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -458 81¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -109 | 57.5 -102 | -538 | +382 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Opened -11.5, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Utah).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -246 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -243 |
| Market (11 books) | -13.0 | -409 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 62.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +390 | +357 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Utah Utes since 09-05 22:46; total has moved up 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:15 pmLean San Diego State +11.5should be San Diego State +10 · getting 1.5 pts · was +10.5A Little Nasty · San Diego State
A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says UCLA by 11.5, we say UCLA by 10. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| UCLA spread | Total (over) | UCLA ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -115 | 53 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -482 | +351 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -10.5, now -11.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +12.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -209 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -114 |
| Sagarin | -17.0 | -698 |
| Market (12 books) | -11.5 | -377 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +11.5 | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +357 | +299 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Army Black KnightsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Over 48.5should be 49.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 50.5A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3.5, we say Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -175 62¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -104 | 48.5 -106 | -174 | +147 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -117 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +130 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -126 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +148 | +138 | +1.6% |
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +3.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Maryland Terrapins at UConn HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Maryland -12.5should be Maryland -13.5 · getting 1 pt · was -13.5A Little Nasty · Maryland
A Little Nasty, Maryland. Market says Maryland by 12.5, we say Maryland by 13.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -102 | 53.5 -109 | +363 | -503 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Opened +13.5, now +12.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Maryland, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -11.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +529 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +295 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +649 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +387 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins -12.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | -480 | -450 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UConn Huskies since 09-06 09:50.
Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden GophersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 54.4 · getting 1.2 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · Under
A Little Nasty, Minnesota. Market says Mississippi State by 1, we say Minnesota by 1. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Mississippi State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -107 50¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -116 | 55.5 -108 | -111 | -105 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Opened -2.5, now +1.0. The market has moved 3.5 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at +2.0.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -146 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +1.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -105 | -109 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Over 41should be 41.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 42A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Iowa by 14, we say Iowa by 14.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -115 | 41 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 41 -108 | -614 | +423 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
A play at -13.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -709 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -457 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -910 |
| Market (12 books) | -14.0 | -474 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes -14.0 | -115 | -119 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | -642 | -515 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 55should be 56.6 · getting 1.5 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Over
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Tennessee by 12.5, we say Tennessee by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 55 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -117 | 55 -109 | +384 | -541 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
A play at +14.0 or better.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +270 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +274 |
| Sagarin | +9.0 | +269 |
| Market (12 books) | +12.5 | +410 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +390 | +338 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina PiratesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Under 56.5should be 55.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Under
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 8, we say East Carolina by 9. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 56.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -104 | 56.5 -108 | -330 | +258 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 32% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward App State).
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -400 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -347 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate App State | |
| Market (12 books) | -8.0 | -274 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -8.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -325 | -270 | -3.5% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -7.7 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB BlazersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Over 56should be 56.7 · getting 0.9 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says UAB by 10.5, we say UAB by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -121 53¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -108 | 56 -109 | -432 | +321 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F, 43% chance of rain.
Opened -7.5, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward UAB). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -211 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UL Monroe | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -342 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +10.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +325 | +312 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward UAB Blazers since 09-05 15:06; total has moved up 1.3.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 52.5should be 53.4 · getting 1 pt · was 50.5A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 9.5, we say Kennesaw State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Georgia State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -9 -110 | 52.5 -106 | -361 | +278 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.5 | -853 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -245 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +9.5 | -112 | -106 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | +270 | +278 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 52should be 52.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 13.5, we say Tulsa by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Sam Houston spread | Total (over) | Sam Houston ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -108 | 52 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -121 53¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 52 -108 | +415 | -599 |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F.
Opened +15.5, now +13.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +17.5 | +757 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +217 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Sam Houston | |
| Market (12 books) | +13.5 | +446 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -108 | +108 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +425 | +434 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmLean Over 50should be 50.7 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · Over
Not Nasty. Market says Tulane by 9.5, we say Tulane by 10. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -112 | 50 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -113 | 50.5 -108 | -389 | +295 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Opened -11.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward South Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.5 | -395 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -535 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -375 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -315 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave -9.5 | -112 | -102 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | -385 | -300 | -4.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward South Alabama Jaguars since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Florida International by 10.5, our data says Florida International by 8.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Florida International by 10.5, we say Florida International by 8.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 48 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -101 | 48 -101 | -409 | +307 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -104 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -125 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Florida International | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -336 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +10.5 | -112 | -133 | +4.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +320 | +251 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmLean Memphis to winour data says 30 in 100 · +276 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, we say Boise State by 8. Less than a point isn't an edge.
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8.5 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -9 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -369 | +283 |
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 72°F.
Opened -7.5, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Boise State).
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -257 |
| Market (12 books) | -8.5 | -296 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | +276 | +233 | +3.5% |
| Spread | Memphis Tigers +8.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-05 23:25; total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.8 consensus.
UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean UCF to winour data says 33 in 100 · +230 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 7, we say Pittsburgh by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 +101 48¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -306 74¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 57 -109 | -286 | +228 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 27% chance of rain.
Opened -8.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward UCF).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -204 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -152 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate UCF | |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -242 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +230 | +205 | +2.5% |
| Spread | UCF Knights +7.0 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 57.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UCF Knights since 09-06 00:23; total has moved up 0.6.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Purdue BoilermakersCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Purdue to winour data says 40 in 100 · +156 · a price bet, they lose more often than notNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 4, we say Wake Forest by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -114 | 50 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -112 | 50 -109 | +156 | -186 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F, 28% chance of rain.
Opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Purdue).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +143 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +156 | +149 | +1.1% |
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +4.0 | -114 | -113 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 09-06 00:23; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Over 49.5should be 50.1 · getting 0.5 pts · was 51.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 17.5.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -900 | +613 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 22% chance of rain.
Opened -16.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Kansas State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -585 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -895 |
| Market (10 books) | -17.5 | -690 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +17.5 | -110 | +113 | -5.5% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +650 | +702 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon Ducks at Oklahoma State CowboysCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amLean Under 57.5should be 56.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 60.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 22.5.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +22.5 -110 | 57.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +22.5 -109 | 57.5 -110 | +948 | -1953 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F, 21% chance of rain.
Opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Oregon). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +20.0 | +1047 |
| FPI | +19.5 | +995 |
| Sagarin | +25.0 | +2060 |
| Market (12 books) | +22.5 | +1041 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma State Cowboys +22.5 | -110 | +126 | -8.1% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma State Cowboys ML | +1050 | +1325 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Virginia Tech HokiesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Virginia Tech by 18.5, our data says Virginia Tech by 18.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia Tech by 18.5.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -110 | 51 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -121 53¢ | -869 89¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -108 | 51 -109 | -1113 | +652 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 31% chance of rain.
Opened -14.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.5 | -757 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -475 |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -1006 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.5 | -699 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +18.5 | -110 | +118 | -6.6% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +674 | +816 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-05 13:53; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Temple OwlsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo betmarket says Penn State by 23.5, our data says Penn State by 23.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 23.5.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23.5 -105 | 49.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +23.5 -102 | 49.5 -111 | +1068 | -2363 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1604 |
| FPI | +20.0 | +1049 |
| Sagarin | +29.5 | +4463 |
| Market (12 books) | +23.5 | +1187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +23.5 | -105 | +142 | -9.9% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +1300 | +1680 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Georgia BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:45 amNo betmarket says Georgia by 41, our data says Georgia by 39.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 41.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -41 -110 | 54 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -39.5 -118 | 54 -112 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Opened -35.5, now -40.0 (the market moved 4.5 toward Georgia).
TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -36.0 | -13246 |
| FPI | -32.0 | -6508 |
| Sagarin | -42.0 | -41331 |
| Market (11 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +41.0 | -110 | -185 | +12.6% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-05 13:53; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: spread -41.0 here against -40.0 consensus.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Kentucky WildcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Alabama by 10, our data says Alabama by 10Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 10, we say Alabama by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -105 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -107 50¢ | +331 22¢ | -404 79¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +317 | -425 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F, 32% chance of rain.
Opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward Alabama). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +302 |
| FPI | +12.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +10.0 | +292 |
| Market (12 books) | +10.0 | +336 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -10.0 | -115 | +106 | -4.9% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -400 | -297 | -5.2% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-05 21:50; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Wildcats at BYU CougarsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says BYU by 7.5, our data says BYU by 7.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 7.5, we say BYU by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -107 | 50.5 -109 | -309 | +244 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 82°F.
Opened -7.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward BYU). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.5 | -226 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -240 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -256 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.5 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -7.5 | -110 | +116 | -6.0% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -295 | -227 | -5.3% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward BYU Cougars since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting IlliniCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Illinois by 6, our data says Illinois by 6.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 6, we say Illinois by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -112 | 53.5 -107 | -238 | +194 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -7.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Duke). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -7.0 | -211 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -340 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -205 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -6.0 | -110 | +100 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -230 | -196 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-05 21:50.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Michigan State SpartansCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Michigan State by 17, our data says Michigan State by 18Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan State by 17.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Opened -16.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Michigan State). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -19.5 | -950 |
| Sagarin | -22.5 | -1469 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.0 | -638 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans -17.0 | -110 | -133 | +4.8% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | -950 | -768 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.7.
The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Rice Owls at Notre Dame Fighting IrishCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmLean Under 54.5should be 53.5 · getting 1 pt · was 52.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 44.5.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -44.5 -110 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -44.0 | -63883 |
| FPI | -41.5 | -38512 |
| Sagarin | -53.0 | -437421 |
| Market (11 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Rice Owls +44.5 | -110 | -162 | +9.4% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Texas State BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas State by 1.5, our data says Texas State by 1.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 1.5, we say Texas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Texas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -141 |
| Sagarin | pk | -101 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | 71.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners +1.5 | -110 | +105 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | +100 | +116 | -3.8% |
| Total | Over 64.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-06 09:50.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Washington HuskiesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo betmarket says Washington by 26.5, our data says Washington by 26.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 26.5.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -26.5 -110 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -108 | 55.5 -109 | — | +1431 |
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F, 33% chance of rain.
Opened -24.5, now -26.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Washington).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2445 |
| FPI | -19.0 | -877 |
| Sagarin | -35.0 | -10809 |
| Market (12 books) | -26.5 | -1526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +26.5 | -110 | +150 | -12.4% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1600 | +2609 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-05 15:06; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Delaware Blue Hens at Vanderbilt CommodoresCFB sat 12 sep, 3:15 pmNo betmarket says Vanderbilt by 20.5, our data says Vanderbilt by 21.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Vanderbilt by 20.5.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -110 | 54.5 -107 | -1562 | +820 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F, 33% chance of rain.
Opened -21.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -2097 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -587 |
| Sagarin | -28.5 | -3727 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -870 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 60.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores -20.5 | -113 | -150 | +6.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | -1530 | -1259 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-05 15:20; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.8 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo betmarket says Ohio by 2.5, our data says Ohio by 2.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 2.5, we say Ohio by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 51.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | -138 | +118 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.
Opened -1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ohio).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.0 | +121 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -116 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks +2.5 | -103 | +106 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | +118 | +127 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ohio Bobcats since 09-06 09:50; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo betmarket says Marshall by 13.5, our data says Marshall by 13.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 13.5, we say Marshall by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 58 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -121 53¢ | -609 85¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 57.5 -118 | -689 | +462 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F, 35% chance of rain.
Opened -17.5, now -14.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Middle Tennessee). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.5 | -1106 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.5 | -488 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 60.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Marshall Thundering Herd -13.5 | -115 | -112 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Marshall Thundering Herd ML | -635 | -452 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmLean Under 55.5should be 55 · getting 0.5 pts · was 56.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 21.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -108 | 55.5 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -109 | 55.5 -108 | -1485 | +793 |
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 83°F, 49% chance of rain.
Opened -23.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -26.0 | -2522 |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1922 |
| Sagarin | -30.5 | -5310 |
| Market (12 books) | -21.0 | -862 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers -21.0 | -108 | -152 | +8.3% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -1496 | -1381 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 0.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, we say Texas by 0.5. Less than a point isn't an edge.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +228 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -105 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +126 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.5 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio State Buckeyes +1.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Ohio State Buckeyes ML | +100 | +104 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo betmarket says Texas Tech by 26.5, our data says Texas Tech by 26.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.5.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 34% chance of rain.
Opened +27.5, now +26.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +25.0 | +2195 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2451 |
| Sagarin | +33.5 | +8590 |
| Market (12 books) | +26.5 | +1427 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers +26.5 | -110 | +152 | -12.8% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | +1500 | +2672 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-06 00:23.
The line is +26.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:45 pmLean Under 61.5should be 60.6 · getting 0.9 ptsNot Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 47.5.
| Ole Miss spread | Total (over) | Ole Miss ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -47.5 -108 | 61.5 -109 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F, 21% chance of rain.
Opened -46.5, now -47.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -43.0 | -50019 |
| FPI | -33.0 | -7627 |
| Sagarin | -50.5 | -271749 |
| Market (10 books) | -47.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +47.5 | -110 | -173 | +11.0% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Ole Miss Rebels since 09-06 12:20.
The line is -47.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:00 pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 3, our data says North Dakota State by 3Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 3, we say North Dakota State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Opened +6.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Air Force).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -109 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +138 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +139 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Dakota State Bison -3.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | North Dakota State Bison ML | -150 | -138 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 12:20; total has moved down 2.1.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo betmarket says Fresno State by 18.5, our data says Fresno State by 18Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 18.5.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1887 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -601 |
| Sagarin | -16.0 | -619 |
| Market (12 books) | -18.5 | -692 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 47.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +18.5 | -110 | +112 | -5.3% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +668 | +768 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansCFB sat 12 sep, 10:00 pmNo betmarket says USC by 31, our data says USC by 30.5Not Nasty
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 59.5 -121 53¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 -108 | 60 -108 | — | — |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Opened -28.5, now -31.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward USC).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -30.5 | -5134 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -3373 |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Louisiana | |
| Market (12 books) | -31.0 | -2645 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0 | -110 | +154 | -13.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +2500 | +5181 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward USC Trojans since 09-06 12:20.
The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
East Tennessee State Buccaneers at North Carolina Tar HeelsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover East Tennessee State Buccaneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.5 | -4080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
East Tennessee State Buccaneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Howard Bison at Indiana HoosiersCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Howard Bison, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Howard ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 64.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -55.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 64.5 | — |
Howard Bison is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Wofford Terriers at Kent State Golden FlashesCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 amNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Wofford Terriers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -14.5, now -13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Wofford). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -13.5 | -500 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Wofford Terriers since 09-07 09:34.
Wofford Terriers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Colgate Raiders at Central Michigan ChippewasCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Colgate Raiders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Colgate ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1684 94¢ | +1074 8¢ |
Opened -26.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Colgate).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -25.5 | -1416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Colgate Raiders since 09-07 09:34.
Colgate Raiders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Holy Cross Crusaders at Miami (OH) RedHawksCFB sat 12 sep, 12:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Holy Cross Crusaders, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Holy Cross ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -32.5 | -2740 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
Holy Cross Crusaders is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State CardinalsCFB sat 12 sep, 1:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Stony Brook Seawolves, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened -18.5, now -16.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -16.0 | -591 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Stony Brook Seawolves since 09-06 00:23.
Stony Brook Seawolves is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Robert Morris Colonials at Akron ZipsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Robert Morris Colonials, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -28.5 | -2292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | — |
Robert Morris Colonials is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Toledo RocketsCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Central Connecticut Blue Devils, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | — |
Central Connecticut Blue Devils is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Weber State Wildcats at Colorado BuffaloesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Weber State Wildcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -34.5 | -2574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Weber State Wildcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Wagner Seahawks at James Madison DukesCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Wagner Seahawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Wagner ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -45.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Wagner Seahawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sacred Heart Pioneers at UMass MinutemenCFB sat 12 sep, 2:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Sacred Heart Pioneers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Sacred Heart ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
Opened -25.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Sacred Heart Pioneers since 09-07 09:34.
Sacred Heart Pioneers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Alabama State Hornets at Troy TrojansCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Alabama State Hornets, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -22.5 | -970 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Alabama State Hornets is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Mercyhurst Lakers at New Mexico LobosCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Mercyhurst Lakers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -41.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
Mercyhurst Lakers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Northern Colorado Bears at Wyoming CowboysCFB sat 12 sep, 3:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Northern Colorado Bears, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Northern Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -23.5 | -1298 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | — |
Northern Colorado Bears is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCFB sat 12 sep, 4:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Campbell Fighting Camels, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Campbell Fighting ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 67.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -49.5 | -10080 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 67.0 | — |
Campbell Fighting Camels is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Liberty FlamesCFB sat 12 sep, 5:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Gardner-Webb Runnin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -27.5 | -1606 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosCFB sat 12 sep, 5:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Monmouth Hawks, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Monmouth ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1464 6¢ |
Opened -27.5, now -25.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Monmouth).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -25.5 | -1328 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Monmouth Hawks since 09-07 09:34.
Monmouth Hawks is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Western Carolina Catamounts, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Western Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | -36.5 | -3805 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Western Carolina Catamounts is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Southern Utah Thunderbirds, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -21.0 | -925 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
Southern Utah Thunderbirds is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Southern University Jaguars, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | Southern University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -50.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | — |
Southern University Jaguars is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksCFB sat 12 sep, 6:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Towson Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Towson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -42.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | — |
Towson Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersCFB sat 12 sep, 6:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Fordham Rams, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Fordham ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +2243 4¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -31.5 | -3305 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Fordham Rams is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Prairie View A&M Panthers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Prairie View A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Prairie View A&M Panthers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsCFB sat 12 sep, 7:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Grambling State Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | — |
Grambling State Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover San Jose State Spartans or Cal Poly Mustangs, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -20.5 | -1100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | — |
San Jose State Spartans and Cal Poly Mustangs is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersCFB sat 12 sep, 8:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Texas Southern Tigers, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (2 books) | -27.5 | -1956 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Texas Southern Tigers is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackCFB sat 12 sep, 9:30 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Montana State Bobcats, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Nevada).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (3 books) | +5.0 | +179 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Nevada Wolf Pack since 09-07 09:34.
Montana State Bobcats is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsCFB sat 12 sep, 11:00 pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo rating
No view. The ratings don't cover Hawaii Rainbow Warriors, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | not an FBS matchup | |
| FPI | not an FBS matchup | |
| Sagarin | not an FBS matchup | |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -315 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | — |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.
Sun Sep 13
13 gamesNothing worth betting yet.Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmHeldQB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), OutHeld, QB out
Held. Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. The ratings don't know that yet, so this number isn't trusted until the market settles.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 42.5 -105 | -181 | +158 |
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting, now Held, QB out.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers), JD Bertrand (LB, Falcons) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -149 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -164 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +3.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +155 | +151 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. The ratings were built with that quarterback playing, so any gap here is the injury, not an edge.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 47.5should be 48.1 · getting 0.4 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +146 39¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 47.5 -113 | +155 | -177 |
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Coleman Owen (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.5 | +161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +150 | +146 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 44should be 45.7 · getting 1.5 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 +101 48¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -112 51¢ | -107 50¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -115 | 44 -118 | -108 | -104 |
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans), Sam Hagen (G, Texans) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -0.5 | -107 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +105 |
| Sagarin | pk | +100 |
| Market (12 books) | +0.5 | -101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +0.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | -109 | +104 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 47.5should be 46.6 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +134 41¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +110 | 47.5 +101 | +141 | -160 |
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Hayden Large (TE, Bears), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +110 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +2.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +132 | +136 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Buccaneers to winour data says 38 in 100 · +175 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -106 | 51 +101 | -208 | +180 |
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F.
Also out: Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Ja'Sir Taylor (CB, Bengals), Xavier Williams (S, Buccaneers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -159 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.0 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +175 | +160 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Browns +9should be Browns +9 · was +8Waiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 +101 | 40.5 -112 | -391 | +316 |
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 88°F.
Opened -8.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Jaguars).
QB out, already in the ratings: Carter Bradley (Jaguars), Injured Reserve; Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. nfelo rebuilt after that news, so it's priced in, not an edge.
Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Edefuan Ulofoshio (LB, Browns), Kalia Davis (DT, Browns) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -192 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -287 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.0 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +320 | +300 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Under 50should be 49.3 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -105 | 50.5 +102 | -321 | +267 |
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions), Michael Niese (G, Lions) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -214 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -110 | +117 | -6.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -320 | -240 | -5.6% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansNFL sun 13 sep, 12:00 pmLean Over 39should be 41.2 · getting 2 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 39.5 -103 49¢ | -126 54¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -109 | 39 -111 | -119 | +106 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Also out: Tre Brown (CB, Jets), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Dorian Mausi (LB, Titans) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -143 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -139 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.0 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans -1.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -124 | -121 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 39.0 | -110 | -131 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.9 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +106 | 47 -114 | -509 | +395 |
Also out: James Conner (RB, Cardinals), Dalevon Campbell (WR, Chargers), Tip Reiman (TE, Cardinals) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -165 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -368 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -416 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -10.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | -530 | -361 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Under 46should be 45.4 · getting 0.7 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -126 54¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -111 | 46 -112 | -121 | +107 |
Also out: Jermar Jefferson (RB, Vikings), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Savion Williams (WR, Packers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -169 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +114 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +102 | +110 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmLean Dolphins +3.5should be Dolphins +3.5Waiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 40.5 -110 | -180 | +157 |
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders), Ben Sims (TE, Dolphins) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -153 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +3.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +155 | +153 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesNFL sun 13 sep, 3:25 pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 4.5, our data says Eagles by 5Waiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | -239 69¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -108 | 44.5 -101 | -228 | +196 |
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Opened -5.0, now -4.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Commanders).
Also out: Jacoby Jones (WR, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Quentin Moore (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -162 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -196 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Market (12 books) | -4.5 | -204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -4.5 | -110 | +106 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -235 | -182 | -5.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Washington Commanders since 09-06 15:31.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsNFL sun 13 sep, 7:20 pmLean Over 48should be 48.3 · getting 0.5 ptsWaiting
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +112 | 47.5 -121 | +142 | -161 |
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Also out: Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -113 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Our number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +135 | +134 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
How the last picks finished
Graded off final scores, one unit a play.
Sunday September 6
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSaturday September 5
3-3 · -0.21 unitsThe group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Scoreboard
Loading scores...
How Sunday 6 September went
Every game we priced, not just the ones we backed. The row worth watching is the one for games we leaned on but didn't bet: if our opinion covers just as often there, the bar isn't sorting anything.
| What we said | Right-wrong | Rate |
|---|---|---|
| Leaned, no bet | 1-0 | 100% |
| Ruled out by the guardrails | 1-1 | 50% |
Game by game
How it's going
It's 7 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
Log the bets you took
Monday, once SP+, FPI and Sagarin rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them thu 10 sep, 7:35 pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 96 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against three rating systems. 0 were worth a second look. 1 cleared every check.
Since 3:20 pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 2.8Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price gets graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. That's about a hundred measurements a Saturday instead of three, so the model can be checked in weeks rather than months. 3 finished so far, and it takes twenty before any of it means anything.
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 52700 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 0.69 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 37 | 2.81 |
| DraftKings | 68 | 0.96 |
| BetOnline.ag | 68 | 0.85 |
| LowVig.ag | 65 | 0.79 |
| BetMGM | 68 | 0.77 |
| BetRivers | 85 | 0.66 |
| FanDuel | 101 | 0.62 |
| TOM | 52 | 0.55 |
| MyBookie.ag | 64 | 0.54 |
| BetUS | 68 | 0.51 |
| Bovada | 67 | 0.46 |
| Caesars | 67 | 0.43 |
| Fanatics | 98 | 0.41 |
| Pinnacle | 66 | 0.40 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- SP+ updated yesterday
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated today
- nfelo updated today