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Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Fri 6:16 pm · 3 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

A LITTLE NASTYArmy Black Knights at Temple Owls
Over 48.0
-105as called
A LITTLE NASTYNavy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers
Over 50.0
-110as called

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Colorado State at UTSAMoved our way · 1 ptColorado State +13.5+105 at TOM+3.2%Sat 11:00am Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 3:33pm at +13 -110. Now Colorado State +13.5 +105, half a point better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+12.5 open Sunnow +13.5Nasty Number +12Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better.Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 2.6 ptsNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGM, a point better, 3 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck

Buck's Take

Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Colorado State +13.5, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.

Massachusetts at Sacramento State, Sacramento State +5. Every system has Sacramento State by 1; the market has Massachusetts by 5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +5.

Georgia Tech at Stanford, Georgia Tech -3.5. Every system has Georgia Tech by 8; the market has Georgia Tech by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -3.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 49 (Louisiana at Charlotte) at 3.5% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49, down 2.5 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Colorado State at UTSA, Colorado State +13.5. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Massachusetts at Sacramento StateSacramento State +5should be Sacramento State +2.5 · getting 2.5 ptsNeeds a better numberSat 8:00pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Sacramento State): TOM +5 at -108 (7.5%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (6.4%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (6.0%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (4.9%).
Georgia Tech at StanfordGeorgia Tech -3.5+100 at FanDuel · 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at -3 for +100 at FanDuel · half a point awayWhere, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel -3.5 at +100 (2.5%) · BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -3.5 at -107 (0.8%).

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: UNLV at Akron, Under 53. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come up 3.5 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

UNLV at AkronMoved our way · 3.5 ptsUnder 53should be 51.8 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · TOM 53 at -115 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
Vanderbilt at AuburnMoved our way · 3 ptsUnder 56should be 54.5 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 56 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 55.5 at -115 (-1.0%).
Louisiana at CharlotteMoved our way · 2.5 ptsOver 49should be 51.3 · getting 2.3 ptsSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 48¢ (4.7%) · TOM 49 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (3.3%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -106 (3.0%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (2.1%).Points or price: 49 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. The price wins.
Hawai'i at WyomingMoved our way · 2 ptsHawai'i to winour data says 59 in 100 · -129Sat 2:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Hawai'i to win): TOM or BetMGM -129 (2.7%) · Kalshi 55¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings -135 (1.6%) · FanDuel -142 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Oklahoma State at West VirginiaMoved our way · 2 ptsUnder 61.5should be 59.8 · getting 1.7 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (1.9%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -112 (1.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 61.5 at -115 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Tulsa at ArkansasMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 50.5should be 52.7 · getting 2.2 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (3.2%) · DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi 50.5 at -115 (2.1%).
Texas at TennesseeMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 54.5should be 56 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Clemson at CaliforniaClemson to winour data says 59 in 100 · -126Fri 9:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel -126 (3.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -130 (2.5%) · Caesars -132 (2.2%) · TOM -135 (1.6%) · Kalshi 56¢ (1.4%).
Troy at Utah StateTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings +3 at -112 (2.3%) · TOM +3 at -115 (1.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Oregon at USCOver 61should be 62.6 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): TOM 61 at -110 (1.8%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 61.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 51¢ (0.1%).
Wisconsin at Penn StatePenn State -10should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGMSat 4:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Penn State): BetMGM -10 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings -10 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (1.2%) · Fanatics -10.5 at -105 (0.9%) · TOM -10 at -115 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -9.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10 (the games that land on 10); -120 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +3.5should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at KalshiSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (UConn): Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (1.7%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (0.9%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (0.3%).
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.8%).
Kansas State at CincinnatiOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.5%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.2%).Points or price: 55 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.
James Madison at Old DominionUnder 44.5weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the totalSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 44.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -118 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
UCLA at MarylandUnder 57should be 55.9 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 12:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
2 more later this week
Patriots at JaguarsPatriots +3should be Patriots +2 · getting 1 ptSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (2.3%) · Caesars +3 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -118 (1.5%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.
Eagles at BearsBears +4.5should be Bears +4 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Bears): DraftKings +4.5 at +100 (0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM +5 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Caesars +4.5 at -106 (-0.6%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%).Points or price: +5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4.5 (the games that land on 5); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than +100. The price wins.

Moved closer since the 6:07pm build

Not picks. Nothing moved closer to its next rung since the 6:07pm build. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed; every card carries its own climb.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Mon 3:32pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:17am✓MasseyFri 11:55am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPIFri 11:55am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyFri 11:55am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 2 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

2 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at California
GameThe call
Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at California
CFB 9:30pm
Clemson to win
our data says 59 in 100 · -126
A Little Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says Clemson by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3. At -126 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Clemson than the bookmore California →
Market
Clemson by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Clemson by 41.6 pts our side
FPI
Clemson by 5.52.9 pts our side
Sagarin
a pick'em2.3 pts against us
Massey
Clemson by 6.54.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Clemson by 30.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Clemson. Sagarin at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Clemson by 3opened Clemson by 1.5now Clemson by 2.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Clemson is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.24.8 pts under the market
Massey
50.61.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.93.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 50.5now 52SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
TOM+2.5 -11052 -104+115-135
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢51.5 -107 50¢+114 45¢-136 56¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -11051 -117+110-124
All 21 books
California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
TOM+2.5 -11052 -104+115-135
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢51.5 -107 50¢+114 45¢-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -11351.5 -109+112-137
BetAnything+2.5 -11051.5 -110+115-135
BetMGM+2.5 -11051.5 -108+110-130
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11052 -104+115-135
betPARX+2.5 -11351.5 -109+112-137
BetRivers+2 -10951.5 -110+112-139
BetUS+2 -11051.5 -110+110-130
Bovada+2 -11051.5 -110+105-125
Caesars+2.5 -10951.5 -107+112-132
Courtside—54.5 -156+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11551.5 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11551.5 -104+104-126
Fliff+2.5 -12051.5 -115+105-135
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -10551.5 -110+105-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10652 -102+115-135
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11051.5 -110+110-135
Pinnacle+2.5 -11051 -117+110-124
ReBet+2 -11451.5 -114+105-129
theScore Bet+2.5 -11051.5 -105+110-130

Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson -2.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel or DraftKings -2.5 at -105 (3.1%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -2.5 at -107 (2.6%) · Caesars or TOM -2.5 at -110 (2.0%).
Same call
Clemson to win · -126 at FanDuel
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 56. That's value. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel -126 (3.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -130 (2.5%) · Caesars -132 (2.2%) · TOM -135 (1.6%) · Kalshi 56¢ (1.4%).
A Little Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -116 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -116 (-0.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 51¢ (-0.4%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -118 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson to win · -126 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.1 toward Clemson, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+172
FPI+5.5+191
SagarinPK-100
Massey+6.5+219
Market (19 books)+2.5+120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-126-144+3.3%
SpreadClemson Tigers -2.5-105-119+3.1%
TotalUnder 52.0-116-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Sagarin is the holdout at a pick'em. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at Indiana
CFB 7:00pm
Indiana -20.5
should be Indiana -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 20.5.

The spread

← more Northwestern than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 20.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Indiana by 20.5
FPI
Indiana by 17.5
Sagarin
Indiana by 18.5
Nasty Number
Indiana by 200.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 20opened Indiana by 22.5now Indiana by 20.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 22.5 to Indiana by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.54 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.54 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.5opened 47.5now 49.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
TOM-20.5 -11049.5 -115——
Kalshi—50.5 -103 49¢-1429 93¢+1074 8¢
Pinnacle-20.5 +10150 -104-1475+906
All 22 books
Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
TOM-20.5 -11049.5 -115——
Kalshi—50.5 -103 49¢-1429 93¢+1074 8¢
Bally Bet-20.5 -11249.5 -113-2000+1000
BetAnything-20.5 -11050 -110-1900+1025
BetMGM-20 -11049.5 -110-1600+1000
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11049.5 -115-1800+979
betPARX-20.5 -11249.5 -113-2000+1000
BetRivers-20.5 -11349.5 -114-2500+1000
BetUS-20.5 -11050 -110-1800+1000
Bovada-20 -11549.5 -115-1800+850
Caesars-20.5 -11349.5 -113-1700+950
Courtside—51.5 -127-1509+1008
DraftKings-20.5 -10849.5 -112-1650+950
Fanatics-20.5 -11050 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-20.5 -10649.5 -110-1700+890
Fliff-19.5 -12549.5 -120-2140+955
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -11549.5 -110-1400+700
LowVig.ag-20.5 -10649.5 -114-1800+979
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11049.5 -110-2039+938
Pinnacle-20.5 +10150 -104-1475+906
ReBet-20.5 -11649.5 -114-1299+810
theScore Bet-20.5 -10549.5 -110-1800+900

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +20.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): Caesars +20.5 at -107 (-0.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +20.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · BetMGM +20 at -108 (-1.7%) · DraftKings +20.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · FanDuel +20.5 at -114 (-2.2%).
Blowout line
Northwestern to win · +955 at DraftKings
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Kalshi 8¢ (1.6%) · BetMGM +1000 (1.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +950 (0.6%) · Fanatics or FanDuel +900 (0.1%).
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 50 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (1.2%) · TOM 49.5 at -105 (1.2%) · Caesars 49.5 at -107 (0.7%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -108 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -23.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Northwestern). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-917
FPI-17.5-704
Sagarin-18.5-797
Masseyrates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales
Market (20 books)-20.5-1371
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.545.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +20.5-110-105-1.3%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+955+885priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-105-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 10:18; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Tomorrow

65 gamesBest: Colorado State +13.5, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSA
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Colorado State +13.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be Colorado State +12 · getting 1.5 pts · +105 at TOM
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Colorado State +13.5 at +105 at TOM. Market says UTSA by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore UTSA →
Market
UTSA by 13.5TOM, -125
The Four
SP+
UTSA by 7.56.1 pts our side
FPI
UTSA by 6.56.8 pts our side
Sagarin
UTSA by 112.3 pts our side
Massey
UTSA by 11.51.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
UTSA by 121.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Colorado State, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTSA by 12opened UTSA by 12.5now UTSA by 13.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.91.1 pts under the market
Massey
57.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 58.5now 57SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UTSA spreadTotal (over)UTSA MLColorado State ML
TOM-13.5 -12557 -115-565+395
Pinnacle-14 -10756.5 -111-613+441
All 19 books
UTSA spreadTotal (over)UTSA MLColorado State ML
TOM-13.5 -12557 -115-565+395
Bally Bet-14 -10957.5 -113-835+525
BetAnything-14 -11057 -110-600+450
BetMGM-14 -11056.5 -112-600+450
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -12557 -115-565+425
betPARX-14 -10957.5 -113-835+525
BetRivers-14 -10957.5 -113-835+525
BetUS-14 -11057 -115-565+435
Bovada-14 -11056.5 -115-625+430
Courtside—63.5 -233-576+455
DraftKings-14 -11256.5 -115-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -12457.5 -105-670+470
Fliff-14.5 -10556.5 -120-665+450
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11556.5 -115-600+425
LowVig.ag-13.5 -11857 -114-565+425
MyBookie.ag-14 -11057 -110-625+430
Pinnacle-14 -10756.5 -111-613+441
ReBet-14.5 -10957 -114-625+430
theScore Bet-14.5 -11056.5 -115-800+500

Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +13.5 · +105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Colorado State): TOM +13.5 at +105 (3.2%) · FanDuel +13.5 at +102 (2.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +14 at -108 (2.2%).
The call
Colorado State to win · +470 at FanDuel
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): FanDuel +470 (2.2%) · BetMGM +450 (1.5%) · DraftKings +440 (1.2%) · TOM +395 (-0.5%).
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -105 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (-1.8%).
No side
Took this bet?

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-7.5-269
FPI-6.5-222
Sagarin-11.0-388
Massey-11.5-400
Market (18 books)-13.5-541
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.056.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +13.5+105-108+3.2%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+470+407priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-105-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -14.0 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada
CFB tomorrow 9:30pm
Nevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 2.6 pts
Bet it · now Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGM
Nasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -108 at BetMGM, a point better, 3 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Air Force by 6TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 4.51.4 pts our side
FPI
Air Force by 0.55.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Nevada by 1.57.3 pts our side
Massey
Air Force by 2.53.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Air Force by 4.51.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Air Force by 4.5opened Air Force by 4.5now Air Force by 6SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Nevada's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
48.23.3 pts under the market
Massey
49.52 pts under the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
474.5 pts under the market
Under 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 48.9now 51.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+6 -11351.5 -105+180-230
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢50.5 -107 50¢+189 33¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -10550 -114+191-228
All 19 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+6 -11351.5 -105+180-230
Kalshi+5.5 -107 50¢50.5 -107 50¢+189 33¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+6 -11449.5 -117+185-235
BetAnything+6 -11051 -110+195-235
BetMGM+6 -10850.5 -112+190-235
BetOnline.ag+6 -11351.5 -105+192-230
betPARX+6 -11449.5 -117+185-235
BetRivers+6 -11449.5 -117+185-235
BetUS+6 -11551 -110+195-230
Bovada+5.5 -11050.5 -110+190-230
Courtside—67.5 -586+199-232
DraftKings+6 -11050.5 -115+195-238
FanDuel+5.5 -10450.5 -112+190-235
Fliff+5.5 -11050.5 -115+185-240
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10550.5 -115+185-240
LowVig.ag+6 -10951.5 -103+192-230
MyBookie.ag+6 -11051 -110+189-238
Pinnacle+5.5 -10550 -114+191-228
theScore Bet+6.5 -11550.5 -115+190-225

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +6.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Nevada): BetMGM +6 at -108 (1.4%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -104 (1.0%) · DraftKings +6 at -110 (0.9%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 50¢ (0.2%) · TOM +6 at -113 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Nevada to win · +195 at DraftKings
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Nevada to win): DraftKings +195 (2.1%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi +190 (1.5%) · TOM +180 (0.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 49. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 4.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 51.5 at -115 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (1.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -108 (1.0%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 72°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Nevada, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.7 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 50.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.5+180
FPI+0.5-100
Sagarin-1.5-109
Massey+2.5+125
Market (17 books)+6.0+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNevada Wolf Pack ML+195+178+2.1%
SpreadNevada Wolf Pack +6.0-108-114+1.4%
TotalUnder 51.5-115-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.7 consensus; total 51.5 here against 50.3 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM
Don't chase · now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics
Nasty Pick · called at +9.5 -108Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 8TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
LSU by 43.8 pts our side
FPI
LSU by 4.53.5 pts our side
Sagarin
LSU by 5.52.4 pts our side
Massey
LSU by 17.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
LSU by 70.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 7opened LSU by 8now LSU by 8SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.94.1 pts under the market
Massey
52.50.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.21.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.2opened 53.5now 52SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-8 -11052 -110-345+270
Kalshi-8.5 -107 50¢52.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Pinnacle-8.5 -10152 -105-339+271
All 20 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-8 -11052 -110-345+270
Kalshi-8.5 -107 50¢52.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢+280 25¢
Bally Bet-8.5 -10851.5 -113-345+255
BetAnything-7.5 -11052 -110-340+270
BetMGM-8 -11051.5 -115-350+275
BetOnline.ag-8 -11052 -110-345+278
betPARX-8.5 -10851.5 -113-345+255
BetRivers-8.5 -10951.5 -114-345+255
BetUS-9 -11052 -110-345+278
Bovada-7.5 -11052 -105-340+270
Courtside—74.5 -1433-335+282
DraftKings-8.5 -10851.5 -112-345+275
Fanatics-8 -11052 -110-340+270
FanDuel-8.5 -10552.5 -108-320+255
Fliff-8.5 -11051.5 -125-355+270
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11551.5 -115-350+260
LowVig.ag-8 -10652 -108-345+278
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11052 -110-350+270
Pinnacle-8.5 -10152 -105-339+271
theScore Bet-8.5 -10552.5 -105-340+270

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +8.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Texas A&M): Kalshi or DraftKings +8.5 at -112 (1.4%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +8 at -110 (0.8%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -115 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Texas A&M to win · +270 at Fanatics
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 24. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): Kalshi 25¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +275 (1.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +270 (1.2%) · FanDuel +255 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 52.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 52 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (-1.8%).
No side

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 2.9 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-4.5-178
Sagarin-5.5-194
Massey-1.0-104
Market (18 books)-8.0-330
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.050.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML+270+254+1.2%
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies +8.0-110-113+0.8%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State
CFB tomorrow 8:00pm
Sacramento State +5
should be Sacramento State +2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Sacramento State +5.0: FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.5% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →
Market
Massachusetts by 5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Sacramento State by 16.2 pts our side
FPI
Massachusetts by 11.56.5 pts against us
Sagarin
Sacramento State by 15.9 pts our side
Massey
Sacramento State by 49.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 2.52.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Sacramento State. FPI at Massachusetts by 11.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 2.5opened Massachusetts by 6now Massachusetts by 5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.93.6 pts under the market
Massey
53.55 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.20.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.2opened 49.5now 48.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+5 -10848.5 -110+170-200
Pinnacle+4 +10348.5 -106+169-198
All 18 books
Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+5 -10848.5 -110+170-200
Bally Bet+5 -10948.5 -113+165-210
BetAnything+4.5 -11048.5 -110+165-195
BetMGM+4.5 -10848.5 -108+165-200
BetOnline.ag+5 -10848.5 -110+174-200
betPARX+5 -10948.5 -113+165-210
BetRivers+5 -10948.5 -113+165-210
BetUS+4.5 -11048.5 -110+167-195
Bovada+4.5 -11048.5 -110+170-200
Courtside—61.5 -595+163-188
DraftKings+4.5 -11048.5 -112+160-192
FanDuel+4.5 -11548.5 -110+158-192
Fliff+4.5 -11548.5 -115+160-200
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -11048.5 -110+170-220
LowVig.ag+5 -10448.5 -108+174-200
MyBookie.ag—48.5 -110——
Pinnacle+4 +10348.5 -106+169-198
theScore Bet+3.5 -10548.5 -110+160-190

Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +5.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Sacramento State): TOM +5 at -108 (7.5%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (6.4%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (6.0%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (4.9%).
A Little Nasty
Sacramento State to win · +170 at TOM
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Sacramento State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Sacramento State to win): TOM +170 (7.0%) · BetMGM +165 (6.3%) · DraftKings +160 (5.5%) · FanDuel +158 (5.2%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +5.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.3 consensus.

BetOnline.ag still has Sacramento State +5.0 while Pinnacle is at Massachusetts by 4.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-108
FPI+11.5+395
Sagarin-1.0-105
Massey-4.0-171
Market (17 books)+5.0+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.549.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +5.0-108-146+7.5%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+170+127+7.0%
TotalOver 48.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.3 consensus.

FPI is the holdout at Massachusetts by 11.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford
CFB tomorrow 9:30pm
Georgia Tech -3.5
should be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -5.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Georgia Tech -3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.5% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →
Market
Georgia Tech by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Georgia Tech by 9.56.1 pts our side
FPI
Georgia Tech by 84.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Georgia Tech by 51.4 pts our side
Massey
Georgia Tech by 8.54.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia Tech by 4.51 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Georgia Tech. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 4.5opened Georgia Tech by 5.5now Georgia Tech by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Georgia Tech is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.60.9 pts under the market
Massey
53.14.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.41.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
TOM+3.5 -11548.5 -115+140-170
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢48.5 -107 50¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10948 -116+149-173
All 19 books
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
TOM+3.5 -11548.5 -115+140-170
Kalshi+3.5 -112 51¢48.5 -107 50¢+146 39¢-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11747.5 -113+145-177
BetAnything+3.5 -11048.5 -110+150-170
BetMGM+3.5 -11248.5 -108+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11548.5 -115+149-170
betPARX+3.5 -11747.5 -113+145-177
BetRivers+3.5 -11847.5 -114+143-180
BetUS+3.5 -11548.5 -115+146-170
Bovada+3.5 -11048.5 -110+150-175
Courtside—56.5 -254+148-171
DraftKings+3.5 -11248.5 -108+145-175
FanDuel+3.5 -12248.5 -106+132-160
Fliff+3.5 -12048.5 -115+140-175
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11048.5 -110+155-185
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11148.5 -114+149-170
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11048.5 -110+150-186
Pinnacle+3.5 -10948 -116+149-173
theScore Bet+3.5 -11548.5 -105+140-165

Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -3.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel -3.5 at +100 (2.5%) · BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -3.5 at -107 (0.8%).
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · -160 at FanDuel
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): FanDuel -160 (2.6%) · BetMGM -165 (1.8%) · TOM -170 (1.1%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -175 (0.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-1.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · TOM 48.5 at -115 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech to win · -160 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -3.0.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +146 here against +161 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Tech by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+318
FPI+8.0+284
Sagarin+5.0+185
Massey+8.5+300
Market (17 books)+3.5+146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML-160-179+2.6%
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.5+100-111+2.5%
TotalOver 48.5-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +161 consensus.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
Troy +3
should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +2.5
A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →
Market
Utah State by 3TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Troy by 13.9 pts our side
FPI
Troy by 0.53.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Utah State by 3.50.3 pts against us
Massey
Utah State by 4.51.7 pts against us
Nasty Number
Utah State by 21.1 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Troy. Sagarin at Utah State by 3.5 and Massey at Utah State by 4.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah State by 2opened Utah State by 2.5now Utah State by 3SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Troy's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.91.9 pts over the market
Massey
49.32.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.12.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.
Utah State spreadTotal (over)Utah State MLTroy ML
TOM-3 -10547 -110-145+120
Pinnacle-3 -10547 -112-145+126
All 19 books
Utah State spreadTotal (over)Utah State MLTroy ML
TOM-3 -10547 -110-145+120
Bally Bet-3 -11346.5 -112-155+125
BetAnything-3 -11047 -110-150+130
BetMGM-3 -10847.5 -105-150+125
BetOnline.ag-3 -10547 -110-145+125
betPARX-3 -11346.5 -112-155+125
BetRivers-3 -11346.5 -112-155+125
BetUS-3 -10547 -110-145+125
Bovada-3 -11047 -115-145+125
Courtside—69.5 -1535-145+127
DraftKings-3 -10847.5 -102-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -12247.5 -105-152+126
Fliff-2.5 -13046.5 -125-155+125
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12046.5 -115-150+130
LowVig.ag-3 -10147 -108-145+125
MyBookie.ag-3 -11047 -110-153+124
Pinnacle-3 -10547 -112-145+126
ReBet-2.5 -12847.5 -109-153+124
theScore Bet-3.5 +10547.5 -105-150+130

Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.

Troy +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings +3 at -112 (2.3%) · TOM +3 at -115 (1.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Troy to win · +126 at FanDuel
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Troy to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +126 (2.3%) · DraftKings +124 (1.9%) · TOM +120 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · TOM 47 at -110 (-0.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Full detail
We settle onUtah State by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+104
FPI+0.5+101
Sagarin-3.5-153
Massey-4.5-181
Market (18 books)-3.0-139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.049.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTroy Trojans +3.0-110-123+2.7%
MoneylineTroy Trojans ML+126+115+2.3%
TotalOver 47.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 6.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
Over 61
should be 62.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 61.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 61.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →
Market
Oregon by 3TOM, -106
The Four
SP+
Oregon by 0.52.4 pts our side
FPI
Oregon by 1.51.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Oregon by 3on the market
Massey
Oregon by 41 pts against us
Nasty Number
Oregon by 2.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean USC. Massey at Oregon by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 2.5opened USC by 1.5now Oregon by 3.5FriSunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but USC is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
65.34.3 pts over the market
Massey
64.13.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
64.73.7 pts over the market
Over 61 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 64.7opened 61.5now 61SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3 -10661 -110+132-162
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢61.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+3 +10262 -103+146-169
All 21 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3 -10661 -110+132-162
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢61.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11761.5 -109+140-175
BetAnything+3 -11061.5 -110+142-162
BetMGM+3.5 -12561.5 -108+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -10661 -110+142-162
betPARX+3.5 -11761.5 -109+140-175
BetRivers+3.5 -11761.5 -110+140-177
BetUS+3 -10561 -110+138-160
Bovada+3 +10061.5 -115+145-170
Courtside—50.5 +254+143-163
DraftKings+3 -10561.5 -110+140-166
Fanatics+3.5 -11561.5 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3.5 -11461.5 -110+140-170
Fliff+3.5 -12561.5 -115+135-175
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10561.5 -110+135-165
LowVig.ag+3 -10261 -108+142-162
MyBookie.ag+3 -11061.5 -110+133-163
Pinnacle+3 +10262 -103+146-169
ReBet+3.5 -12561.5 -116+133-163
theScore Bet+3.5 -11061.5 -105+150-175

Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.

USC +3.5 · -114 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (USC): FanDuel +3.5 at -114 (2.7%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings +3 at -105 (1.4%) · TOM +3 at -106 (1.2%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
USC to win · +140 at DraftKings
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (USC to win): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi +140 (2.5%) · TOM +132 (1.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 61.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 64. That's 3.7 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 61 at -110 (1.8%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 61.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 61.5 at 51¢ (0.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 61.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 4.9 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +138 here against +156 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+1.5+112
Sagarin+3.0+131
Massey+4.0+169
Market (19 books)+3.0+138
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.064.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUSC Trojans +3.5-114-127+2.7%
MoneylineUSC Trojans ML+140+126+2.5%
TotalOver 61.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00.

TOM: total 61.0 here against 61.7 consensus; moneyline +138 here against +156 consensus.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at Wyoming
CFB tomorrow 2:00pm
Hawai'i to winMoved our way · 2 pts
our data says 59 in 100 · -129
A Little Nasty · Hawai'iBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Hawai'i. Market says Hawai'i by 2, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3. At -129 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Wyoming →
Market
Hawai'i by 2TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 5.53.7 pts our side
FPI
Hawai'i by 96.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 2.50.4 pts our side
Massey
Hawai'i by 2on the market
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 31.1 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Hawai'i. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 3opened Hawai'i by 4now Hawai'i by 2SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.31.2 pts under the market
Massey
43.90.4 pts over the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
41.32.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.3opened 45now 43.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
TOM+2 -10843.5 -107+109-129
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢44.5 +101 48¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10844 -104+112-128
All 20 books
Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
TOM+2 -10843.5 -107+109-129
Kalshi+2.5 -112 51¢44.5 +101 48¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2 -11043.5 -118+105-129
BetAnything+2.5 -11043.5 -115+110-130
BetMGM+2.5 -10843.5 -110+110-130
BetOnline.ag+2 -10843.5 -107+109-129
betPARX+2 -11043.5 -118+105-129
BetRivers+2 -11043.5 -118+105-129
BetUS+2.5 -11043.5 -105+108-128
Bovada+2.5 -11043.5 -115+110-130
Courtside—61.5 -898+116-132
DraftKings+2.5 -10543.5 -112+114-135
FanDuel+2.5 -10243.5 -114+118-142
Fliff+2.5 -11543.5 -120+110-140
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11043.5 -110+115-135
LowVig.ag+2 -10443.5 -105+109-129
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11043.5 -110+111-136
Pinnacle+2.5 -10844 -104+112-128
ReBet+2.5 -11443.5 -116+111-136
theScore Bet+2.5 -10543.5 -115+115-135

Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -2.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): TOM -2 at -112 (2.6%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -110 (1.9%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -115 (0.8%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -129 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): TOM or BetMGM -129 (2.7%) · Kalshi 55¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings -135 (1.6%) · FanDuel -142 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -113 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 44. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -106 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · Kalshi 44.5 at 53¢ (-1.9%) · TOM 43.5 at -113 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -129 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+197
FPI+9.0+306
Sagarin+2.5+120
Massey+2.0+116
Market (18 books)+2.0+114
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.541.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-129-144+2.7%
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.0-112-125+2.6%
TotalUnder 43.5-113-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State
CFB tomorrow 4:00pm
Penn State -10
should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was -11.5
A Little Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →
Market
Penn State by 10TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Penn State by 166.2 pts our side
FPI
Penn State by 15.55.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Penn State by 10on the market
Massey
Penn State by 155.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Penn State by 11.51.7 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Penn State. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 11.5opened Penn State by 10.5now Penn State by 10SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Penn State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
40.53.5 pts under the market
Massey
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.61.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.6opened 44.5now 44SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLWisconsin ML
TOM-10 -11544 -105-385+295
Pinnacle-10 -10944 -106-403+314
All 20 books
Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLWisconsin ML
TOM-10 -11544 -105-385+295
Bally Bet-10 -11344 -108-455+340
BetAnything-10 -11043.5 -110-380+300
BetMGM-10 -11043.5 -112-375+300
BetOnline.ag-10 -11544 -105-385+306
betPARX-10 -11344 -108-455+340
BetRivers-10 -11444 -109-480+335
BetUS-10 -11043.5 -110-385+308
Bovada-10 -11044 -110-410+305
Courtside—56.5 -544-369+308
DraftKings-10 -11243.5 -115-380+300
Fanatics-10.5 -10544 -110-400+310
FanDuel-9.5 -12043.5 -115-400+310
Fliff-10.5 -11043.5 -125-415+305
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -10543.5 -115-500+350
LowVig.ag-10 -11144 -103-385+306
MyBookie.ag-10 -11044 -110-469+350
Pinnacle-10 -10944 -106-403+314
ReBet-10.5 -10943.5 -116-469+350
theScore Bet-9.5 -12043.5 -115-380+290

Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -10.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Penn State): BetMGM -10 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings -10 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (1.2%) · Fanatics -10.5 at -105 (0.9%) · TOM -10 at -115 (0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Penn State to win · -385 at TOM
We make it 80 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 80 cents fair, a play under 76. Where, best first (Penn State to win): BetMGM -375 (1.1%) · DraftKings -380 (0.8%) · TOM -385 (0.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -400 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 44 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · TOM 44 at -115 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State -10.0 · -110 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from Penn State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.0-585
FPI-15.5-562
Sagarin-10.0-326
Massey-15.0-551
Market (19 books)-10.0-368
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.042.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPenn State Nittany Lions -10.0-110-118+1.7%
MoneylinePenn State Nittany Lions ML-385-400+0.6%
TotalUnder 44.0-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00.

TOM matches the consensus.

UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
UConn +3.5
should be UConn +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was +5.5
A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 3.5TOM, -103
The Four
SP+
Miami (OH) by 1.52.1 pts our side
FPI
UConn by 0.53.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 30.3 pts our side
Massey
UConn by 14.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 30.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 3opened Miami (OH) by 3.5now Miami (OH) by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.42.1 pts under the market
Massey
55.33.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.30.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.3opened 50.5now 51.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLUConn ML
TOM-3.5 -10351.5 -110-170+140
Kalshi-3.5 -107 50¢52.5 -103 49¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10152 -115-170+146
All 20 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLUConn ML
TOM-3.5 -10351.5 -110-170+140
Kalshi-3.5 -107 50¢52.5 -103 49¢-175 62¢+146 39¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -11351.5 -118-177+143
BetAnything-3.5 -11051.5 -115-170+150
BetMGM-3.5 +10051.5 -115-175+145
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -10351.5 -110-170+149
betPARX-3.5 -11351.5 -118-177+143
BetRivers-3.5 -11351.5 -118-180+143
BetUS-3.5 -10551.5 -110-170+146
Bovada-3.5 -10552.5 -110-170+145
Courtside—37.5 +409-171+148
DraftKings-3.5 -10251.5 -115-175+145
FanDuel-3.5 -10551.5 -114-170+140
Fliff-3.5 -11051.5 -125-180+140
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10551.5 -115-175+145
LowVig.ag-3.5 +10151.5 -108-170+149
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11052 -110-174+141
Pinnacle-3.5 -10152 -115-170+146
ReBet-3.5 -10952 -116-174+141
theScore Bet-3.5 -11052.5 -105-175+150

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +3.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UConn): Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (1.7%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (0.9%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (0.3%).
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +140 at FanDuel
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (UConn to win): Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +146 (1.9%) · FanDuel or TOM +140 (1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -115 (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-110
FPI+0.5-100
Sagarin-3.0-146
Massey+1.0+103
Market (18 books)-3.5-163
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +3.5-112-119+1.7%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+140+134+1.0%
TotalOver 51.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.4.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas
CFB tomorrow 7:00pm
Over 50.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 52.7 · getting 2.2 pts · was 52.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 50.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Tulsa too: market says Arkansas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6, but at -125 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Arkansas by 7.5TOM, +105
The Four
SP+
Arkansas by 34.4 pts our side
FPI
Arkansas by 1.55.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Arkansas by 102.6 pts against us
Massey
Arkansas by 14.57 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas by 61.6 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Tulsa. Sagarin at Arkansas by 10 and Massey at Arkansas by 14.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas by 6opened Arkansas by 7now Arkansas by 7.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Tulsa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -115
The Four
SP+ pace
60.810.3 pts over the market
Massey
53.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.36.8 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.3opened 52now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7.5 +10550.5 -115-270+210
Kalshi-7.5 +109 46¢50.5 -116 52¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
Pinnacle-7 -11351 -108-282+231
All 19 books
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7.5 +10550.5 -115-270+210
Kalshi-7.5 +109 46¢50.5 -116 52¢-263 71¢+217 30¢
Bally Bet-7 -11050.5 -110-295+230
BetAnything-7 -11050.5 -110-270+225
BetMGM-7 -11250.5 -110-275+220
BetOnline.ag-7.5 +10550.5 -115-270+222
betPARX-7 -11050.5 -110-295+230
BetRivers-7 -11250.5 -112-305+230
BetUS-7 -11050.5 -110-270+225
Bovada-7 -11551 -110-280+230
Courtside—55.5 -198-263+225
DraftKings-7 -11250.5 -115-270+220
FanDuel-6.5 -12450.5 -110-275+220
Fliff-7.5 -10550.5 -120-285+220
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10550.5 -110-300+225
LowVig.ag-7.5 +10950.5 -114-270+222
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050.5 -110-280+220
Pinnacle-7 -11351 -108-282+231
theScore Bet-7.5 +10550.5 -115-275+225

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +7.5 · -125 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 56 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tulsa): DraftKings or BetMGM +7 at -108 (3.1%) · TOM +7.5 at -125 (2.3%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +102 (2.0%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 55¢ (1.1%).
Not Nasty
Tulsa to win · +220 at FanDuel
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +220 (2.1%) · Kalshi 30¢ (1.8%) · TOM +210 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 54. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (3.2%) · DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi 50.5 at -115 (2.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.1 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-144
FPI-1.5-113
Sagarin-10.0-346
Massey-14.5-523
Market (17 books)-7.5-258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.557.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5-125-137+2.3%
MoneylineTulsa Golden Hurricane ML+220+200+2.1%
TotalOver 50.5-115-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at Tennessee
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Over 54.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 56 · getting 1.5 pts · was 56.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Tennessee too: market says Texas by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 4, but at -103 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Texas by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Texas by 1.52.8 pts our side
FPI
Texas by 7.52.9 pts against us
Sagarin
Texas by 22.7 pts our side
Massey
Texas by 2.52.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas by 40.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Tennessee. FPI at Texas by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 4opened Texas by 5.5now Texas by 4.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
60.56 pts over the market
Massey
56.82.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.74.2 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.7opened 56now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
TOM+4.5 -11054.5 -110+165-205
Kalshi+4.5 -103 49¢54.5 -116 52¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10455 -106+170-199
All 21 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
TOM+4.5 -11054.5 -110+165-205
Kalshi+4.5 -103 49¢54.5 -116 52¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+5 -11255 -108+165-200
BetAnything+5 -11055 -110+170-200
BetMGM+5 -11054.5 -112+170-210
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11054.5 -110+177-205
betPARX+5 -11255 -108+165-200
BetRivers+5 -11355 -109+160-200
BetUS+4.5 -11054.5 -110+170-200
Bovada+5 -11555 -110+170-200
Courtside—63.5 -296+168-194
DraftKings+4.5 -10554.5 -112+164-198
Fanatics+5 -11055 -110+170-205
FanDuel+4.5 -10654.5 -112+164-200
Fliff+4.5 -11554.5 -120+160-205
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11054.5 -115+175-225
LowVig.ag+4.5 -10654.5 -108+177-205
MyBookie.ag+5 -11055 -110+176-220
Pinnacle+4.5 -10455 -106+170-199
ReBet+5 -11155 -111+176-220
theScore Bet+4.5 -10554.5 -115+170-200

Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee +4.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tennessee): Kalshi +4.5 at 49¢ (0.9%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +5 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -106 (0.2%) · TOM +4.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Tennessee to win · +165 (36¢) at Kalshi
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 33. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): Fanatics or BetMGM +170 (0.3%) · Kalshi or TOM +166 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +164 (-0.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.2 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 54.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (1.0%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.5+113
FPI+7.5+270
Sagarin+2.0+114
Massey+2.5+119
Market (19 books)+4.5+172
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.558.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Volunteers +4.5-103-107+0.9%
MoneylineTennessee Volunteers ML+165+167-0.3%
TotalOver 54.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.9 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Jacksonville State -7
should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -9
A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →
Market
Jacksonville State by 7
The Four
SP+
Jacksonville State by 1810.8 pts our side
FPI
Jacksonville State by 6.50.5 pts against us
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 124.9 pts our side
Massey
Jacksonville State by 7on the market
Nasty Number
Jacksonville State by 7.50.5 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Jacksonville State. FPI at Jacksonville State by 6.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jacksonville State by 7.5opened Jacksonville State by 8.5now Jacksonville State by 7SunTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
57.15.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.23 pts over the market
Nasty Number
55.74.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.7opened 52now 51SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings or BetMGM -7 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
Jacksonville State to win · -286 at DraftKings
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Jacksonville State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -285 (-0.5%) · FanDuel -295 (-1.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Jacksonville State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onJacksonville State by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-18.0-736
FPI-6.5-215
Sagarin-12.0-405
Massey-7.0-254
Market (18 books)-7.0-268
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.055.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineJacksonville State Gamecocks ML-286-278-0.5%
TotalOver 51.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion
CFB tomorrow 5:00pm
Under 44.5
weather: 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total
A Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 44.5, for the weather. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says James Madison by 6, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →
Market
James Madison by 6TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
James Madison by 11
FPI
James Madison by 8.5
Sagarin
James Madison by 4.5
Massey
James Madison by 8
Nasty Number
James Madison by 6.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 6.5opened James Madison by 4.5now James Madison by 6SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 4.5 to James Madison by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.91.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.66.1 pts over the market
Weather
-3.520 mph wind, takes 3.5 points off
Nasty Number
43.31.2 pts under the market
Under 44.5 is a weather call. 20 mph wind, worth about 3.5 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.3opened 49.5now 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+6 -10844.5 -110+175-215
Kalshi+6.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Pinnacle+6 -10544.5 -108+189-224
All 20 books
Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+6 -10844.5 -110+175-215
Kalshi+6.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+181 34¢-218 67¢
Bally Bet+6 -11344.5 -113+175-225
BetAnything+6 -11044 -110+180-220
BetMGM+6.5 -11844.5 -105+185-225
BetOnline.ag+6 -10844.5 -110+183-215
betPARX+6 -11344.5 -113+175-225
BetRivers+6 -11444.5 -114+175-225
BetUS+6 -11044 -110+183-215
Bovada+6 -11044.5 -110+185-225
Courtside—59.5 -852+189-220
DraftKings+6 -11044.5 -102+185-225
FanDuel+6.5 -11544.5 -105+190-235
Fliff+6.5 -12044.5 -115+180-235
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11044.5 -105+200-275
LowVig.ag+6 -10444.5 -108+183-215
MyBookie.ag+6 -11044.5 -110+193-244
Pinnacle+6 -10544.5 -108+189-224
ReBet+6.5 -11444.5 -109+204-260
theScore Bet+6.5 -11044.5 +100+195-230

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -6.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings -6 at -110 (-0.7%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · TOM -6 at -112 (-1.1%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
James Madison to win · -215 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64. Where, best first (James Madison to win): TOM -215 (0.2%) · Kalshi 67¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -225 (-0.8%) · FanDuel -235 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 3.5 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 44.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -118 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 67°F, 25% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.5 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +6.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $124 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++11.0+380
FPI+8.5+299
Sagarin+4.5+182
Massey+8.0+293
Market (18 books)+6.0+183
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.543.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-215-217+0.2%
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -6.0-112-107-1.1%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 7.0.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Over 55
should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Kansas State by 6.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Kansas State by 4
FPI
Kansas State by 3
Sagarin
Kansas State by 1
Massey
Kansas State by 5.5
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 5.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas State by 5.5opened Kansas State by 6.5now Kansas State by 6.5SunMonTueWed

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Over -112
The Four
SP+ pace
59.34.3 pts over the market
Massey
57.52.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.43.4 pts over the market
Over 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.4opened 53now 55SunMonTueWed

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11555 -112+180-230
Pinnacle+6.5 -11455 -112+191-228
All 19 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11555 -112+180-230
Bally Bet+6 -11456.5 -113+190-245
BetAnything+6.5 -11555.5 -105+190-230
BetMGM+6 -10855.5 -102+190-235
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -11555 -112+192-230
betPARX+6 -11456.5 -113+190-245
BetRivers+6 -11456.5 -113+190-245
BetUS+6 -11055 -110+203-240
Bovada+6 -11055.5 -105+190-230
Courtside—73.5 -925+199-232
DraftKings+6.5 -11555.5 -105+195-238
FanDuel+6.5 -11455.5 -105+188-230
Fliff+5.5 -11055.5 -115+190-245
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11054.5 -120+190-250
LowVig.ag+6.5 -11155 -110+192-230
MyBookie.ag+6 -11055 -110+189-238
Pinnacle+6.5 -11455 -112+191-228
ReBet+6.5 -11455 -114+194-244
theScore Bet+6.5 -11555.5 -105+195-230

Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +6.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cincinnati): BetMGM +6 at -108 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -114 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or TOM +6.5 at -115 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Cincinnati to win · +195 at DraftKings
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): DraftKings +195 (0.1%) · BetMGM +190 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +188 (-0.7%) · TOM +180 (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 58. That's 3.4 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.3%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.5%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+173
FPI+3.0+145
Sagarin+1.0+103
Massey+5.5+191
Market (18 books)+6.5+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.058.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+195+194+0.1%
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +6.5-115-110-1.2%
TotalOver 55.0-112-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.

UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at Akron
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Under 53Moved our way · 3.5 pts
should be 51.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 54.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 53.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 13.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 13. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore Akron →
Market
UNLV by 13.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
UNLV by 15.5
FPI
UNLV by 10
Sagarin
UNLV by 2
Massey
UNLV by 14
Nasty Number
UNLV by 130.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 13opened UNLV by 14now UNLV by 13.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 14 to UNLV by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
50.42.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.52.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.42.6 pts under the market
Under 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 49.5now 53SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 3.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
TOM+13.5 -11553 -105+380-530
Kalshi+13.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+426 18¢-524 83¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -10752.5 -116+408-556
All 20 books
Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
TOM+13.5 -11553 -105+380-530
Kalshi+13.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+426 18¢-524 83¢
Bally Bet+12.5 -11051.5 -114+390-560
BetAnything+13.5 -11052.5 -110+410-550
BetMGM+13 -10852.5 -110+400-525
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -11553 -105+403-530
betPARX+12.5 -11051.5 -114+390-560
BetRivers+12.5 -11051.5 -114+390-560
BetUS+13.5 -11052.5 -110+410-530
Bovada+13.5 -11053 -110+400-575
Courtside—65.5 -660+423-530
DraftKings+13.5 -10852.5 -112+410-550
FanDuel+13.5 -11052.5 -110+400-550
Fliff+13.5 -12052.5 -120+395-565
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -10552.5 -110+400-550
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10653 -103+403-530
MyBookie.ag+13.5 -11052.5 -110+400-575
Pinnacle+13.5 -10752.5 -116+408-556
ReBet+13.5 -11152.5 -114+400-575
theScore Bet+13.5 -11052.5 -105+400-600

Marked: best for the Akron side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +13.5 · -108 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Akron): DraftKings +13.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +13 at -108 (-1.8%) · TOM or Kalshi +13.5 at -115 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Akron to win · +426 (18¢) at Kalshi
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Akron to win): Kalshi 18¢ (-0.1%) · DraftKings +410 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +400 (-1.0%) · TOM +380 (-1.9%).
Off the band
the Under 53.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.6 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 53.5 at 51¢ (1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · TOM 53 at -115 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Akron). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +397 here against +498 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.5+553
FPI+10.0+328
Sagarin+2.0+116
Massey+14.0+464
Market (18 books)+13.5+397
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.050.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +13.5-108-103-1.1%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+426+428priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.0-115-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Akron Zips since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus; moneyline +397 here against +498 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at Maryland
CFB tomorrow 12:30pm
Under 57
should be 55.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 57.0. 17 mph wind, worth about 2.4 off the total. The market's total is 57; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says UCLA by 1.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Maryland →
Market
UCLA by 1.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Maryland by 1
FPI
Maryland by 0.5
Sagarin
Maryland by 1.5
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
UCLA by 10.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 1opened UCLA by 2.5now UCLA by 1.5SunMonTueWed

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UCLA by 2.5 to UCLA by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
54.82.2 pts under the market
Massey
55.31.7 pts under the market
Weather
-2.417 mph wind, takes 2.4 points off
Nasty Number
52.64.4 pts under the market
Under 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 59now 57SunMonTueWed

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLUCLA ML
TOM+1.5 -11057 -105—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -107 50¢56.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-126 54¢
Pinnacle+1 -10257 -103+104-119
All 20 books
Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLUCLA ML
TOM+1.5 -11057 -105—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -107 50¢56.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-126 54¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -10857 -112+104-127
BetAnything+1.5 -11056.5 -110+100-120
BetMGM+1.5 -11056.5 -108+100-120
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -11057 -105+100-120
betPARX+1.5 -10857 -112+104-127
BetRivers+1.5 -10957 -113+104-129
BetUS+1.5 -11056 -110+100-120
Bovada+1.5 -11056.5 -115+100-120
Courtside—72.5 -1399+102-118
DraftKings+1.5 -11056.5 -110+100-120
FanDuel+1.5 -10656.5 -110+104-125
Fliff+1.5 -11556.5 -120+100-125
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -11056.5 -110+100-120
LowVig.ag+1.5 -10657 -103+100-120
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11056.5 -110-102-120
Pinnacle+1 -10257 -103+104-119
ReBet+1 -11156.5 -114-102-120
theScore Bet+1.5 -10556.5 -110+105-125

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Maryland): FanDuel +1.5 at -106 (0.4%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 50¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +1.5 at -110 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Maryland to win · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi
We make it 49 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 49 cents fair, a play under 44. Where, best first (Maryland to win): FanDuel +104 (0.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +101 (-0.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 57.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 2.4 off. That's 4.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 57 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -115 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 40% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.4 for it.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-107
FPI-0.5+100
Sagarin-1.5-110
MasseyPK+100
Market (18 books)+1.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.052.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins +1.5-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML+100+103-0.9%
TotalUnder 57.0-115-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 5.3.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.2 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +111 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at Auburn
CFB tomorrow 3:15pm
Under 56Moved our way · 3 pts
should be 54.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 50.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 56.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 8.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Auburn by 9.5TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
Auburn by 4
FPI
Auburn by 9
Sagarin
Auburn by 9
Massey
Auburn by 3.5
Nasty Number
Auburn by 8.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Auburn by 8.5opened Auburn by 9.5now Auburn by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.64.4 pts under the market
Massey
52.83.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.23.8 pts under the market
Under 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.2opened 53now 56SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-9.5 -11356 -110-360+270
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢55.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢+296 24¢
Pinnacle-9.5 -11055 -113-363+287
All 20 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-9.5 -11356 -110-360+270
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢55.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢+296 24¢
Bally Bet-9.5 -11255.5 -108-375+285
BetAnything-9.5 -11056 -110-350+280
BetMGM-9 -11855.5 -108-350+280
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11356 -110-360+289
betPARX-9.5 -11255.5 -108-375+285
BetRivers-9.5 -11355.5 -109-385+280
BetUS-9.5 -11056 -110-360+290
Bovada-9.5 -11555.5 -105-370+285
Courtside—77.5 -339-364+303
DraftKings-9.5 -11055.5 -108-375+295
FanDuel-9.5 -11055.5 -105-350+275
Fliff-9.5 -12055.5 -115-375+280
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11555.5 -110-400+300
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10956 -108-360+289
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11055.5 -110-370+285
Pinnacle-9.5 -11055 -113-363+287
ReBet-10 -11155.5 -111-370+285
theScore Bet-9.5 -10555.5 -105-400+300

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): Kalshi +9.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · TOM +9.5 at -107 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +9.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +9 at -112 (-2.5%).
Not Nasty
Vanderbilt to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi
We make it 25 in 100 to win. The price says 25. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 25 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Kalshi or DraftKings +296 (-0.4%) · BetMGM +280 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +275 (-1.8%) · TOM +270 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 53. That's 3.8 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 56 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 55.5 at -115 (-1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Auburn).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAuburn by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-172
FPI-9.0-307
Sagarin-9.0-308
Massey-3.5-156
Market (18 books)-9.5-344
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.052.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores +9.5-107-103-0.9%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML+296+303-0.4%
TotalUnder 56.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 5.0.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte
CFB tomorrow 5:30pm
Over 49Moved our way · 2.5 pts
should be 51.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 51.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Louisiana by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Louisiana by 14.5
FPI
Louisiana by 7.5
Sagarin
Louisiana by 7.5
Massey
Louisiana by 8
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 9.5opened Louisiana by 14now Louisiana by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
58.69.6 pts over the market
Massey
54.55.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.67.6 pts over the market
Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.6opened 51.5now 49SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+9.5 -11049 -110+310-400
Kalshi+10.5 -121 53¢49.5 +101 48¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
Pinnacle+10 -10949 -114+319-411
All 20 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+9.5 -11049 -110+310-400
Kalshi+10.5 -121 53¢49.5 +101 48¢+313 23¢-381 78¢
Bally Bet+10 -10948.5 -115+340-480
BetAnything+10 -11049 -110+325-425
BetMGM+9.5 -10849.5 -110+310-375
BetOnline.ag+9.5 -11049 -110+316-400
betPARX+10 -10948.5 -115+340-480
BetRivers+10 -10948.5 -115+340-480
BetUS+10 -11049 -110+320-400
Bovada+10 -11049.5 -105+315-420
Courtside—40.5 +242+329-397
DraftKings+10 -11249.5 -105+320-410
FanDuel+10.5 -12249.5 -106+300-385
Fliff+9.5 -11048.5 -125+315-425
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11548.5 -115+325-450
LowVig.ag+9.5 -10649 -108+316-400
MyBookie.ag+10 -11049 -110+311-421
Pinnacle+10 -10949 -114+319-411
ReBet+10.5 -11949 -114+320-429
theScore Bet+9.5 -10549.5 -105+300-400

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +10.0 · -112 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings +10 at -112 (-0.8%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +10.5 at -121 (-1.0%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · TOM +9.5 at -110 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Charlotte to win · +310 (23¢) at Kalshi
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): DraftKings +320 (0.5%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or TOM +313 (0.1%) · FanDuel +300 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 55. That's 7.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 48¢ (4.7%) · TOM 49 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (3.3%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -106 (3.0%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (2.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Charlotte). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +324 here against +377 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++14.5+533
FPI+7.5+260
Sagarin+7.5+278
Massey+8.0+291
Market (18 books)+9.5+324
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.056.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +10.0-112-109-0.8%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+310+311priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.0-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.5.

TOM: spread +9.5 here against +10.0 consensus; moneyline +324 here against +377 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Under 61.5Moved our way · 2 pts
should be 59.8 · getting 1.7 pts · was 57.5
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 61.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
West Virginia by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Oklahoma State by 2.5
FPI
West Virginia by 2.5
Sagarin
West Virginia by 4
Massey
West Virginia by 5.5
Nasty Number
West Virginia by 20 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number West Virginia by 2opened West Virginia by 2.5now West Virginia by 2SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
54.66.9 pts under the market
Massey
55.65.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.16.4 pts under the market
Under 61.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.1opened 59.5now 61.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-2 -11061.5 -110-126+106
Pinnacle-2 -10661 -106-124+108
All 19 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-2 -11061.5 -110-126+106
Bally Bet-2 -11061 -110-129+106
BetAnything-2 -11061 -110-125+105
BetMGM-2 -11061.5 -105-125+105
BetOnline.ag-2 -11061.5 -110-126+106
betPARX-2 -11061 -110-129+106
BetRivers-2 -11261 -112-129+104
BetUS-2 -11061.5 -110-125+105
Bovada-2 -11061 -110-125+105
Courtside—73.5 -500-122+107
DraftKings-1.5 -11261.5 -105-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 -11561.5 -105-126+105
Fliff-1.5 -12060.5 -125-130+100
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11560.5 -115-125+105
LowVig.ag-2 -10661.5 -108-126+106
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11061 -110-129+106
Pinnacle-2 -10661 -106-124+108
ReBet-2 -11461 -114-129+106
theScore Bet-1.5 -11061.5 -105-125+105

Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia -2.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (West Virginia): DraftKings -1.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · BetMGM or TOM -2 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
West Virginia to win · -126 at DraftKings
We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): DraftKings, BetMGM, FanDuel or TOM -125 (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (1.9%) · BetMGM 61.5 at -112 (1.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 61.5 at -115 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 4.4 toward West Virginia).

TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWest Virginia by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+128
FPI-2.5-122
Sagarin-4.0-172
Massey-5.5-195
Market (18 books)-2.0-121
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.555.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers -2.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML-126-116-2.0%
TotalUnder 61.5-110-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.6.

TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent State
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Ball State +3
should be Ball State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Kent State by 3, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Kent State by 3TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Kent State by 1.51.3 pts our side
FPI
Kent State by 0.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Kent State by 5.52.4 pts against us
Massey
Ball State by 13.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Kent State by 2.50.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Ball State. Sagarin at Kent State by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kent State by 2.5opened Kent State by 4.5now Kent State by 3SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ball State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.51 pts under the market
Massey
55.34.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.41.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.4opened 51.5now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLBall State ML
TOM-3 -11250.5 -110-155+130
Pinnacle-3 -10851 -107-157+135
All 19 books
Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLBall State ML
TOM-3 -11250.5 -110-155+130
Bally Bet-3 -11551.5 -110-159+130
BetAnything-3 -11551 -110-150+130
BetMGM-3 -11050.5 -112-160+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -11250.5 -110-155+135
betPARX-3 -11551.5 -110-159+130
BetRivers-3 -11551.5 -110-162+130
BetUS-3 -11551 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -11051 -110-160+135
Courtside—58.5 -262-152+133
DraftKings-3 -11250.5 -115-155+130
FanDuel-2.5 -12251.5 -102-152+126
Fliff-3.5 -10550.5 -125-160+125
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12550.5 -115-150+130
LowVig.ag-3 -10850.5 -108-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 -11051 -110-157+128
Pinnacle-3 -10851 -107-157+135
ReBet-3 -11151 -111-157+128
theScore Bet-2.5 -12551.5 +100-155+135

Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ball State +3.0 · -108 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -108 (2.0%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.2%).
Not Nasty
Ball State to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Ball State to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +130 (1.9%) · FanDuel +126 (1.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -115 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +3.0 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Ball State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKent State by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-113
FPI-0.5-101
Sagarin-5.5-191
Massey+1.0+103
Market (18 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.552.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBall State Cardinals +3.0-108-117+2.0%
MoneylineBall State Cardinals ML+130+120+1.9%
TotalOver 50.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Ball State Cardinals since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.0 consensus.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington
CFB tomorrow 10:00pm
Minnesota +10
should be Minnesota +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 10, the Nasty Number says Washington by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 10TOM, -123
The Four
SP+
Washington by 90.9 pts our side
FPI
Washington by 72.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington by 7.52.6 pts our side
Massey
Washington by 9.50.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Washington by 9.50.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Minnesota. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 9.5opened Washington by 9.5now Washington by 10SunMonTueWedThuFri

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Minnesota's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
42.23.8 pts under the market
Massey
45.60.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.9opened 46now 46SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-10 -12346 -105-390+300
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢46.5 -103 49¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-10 -11646 -106-407+317
All 19 books
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-10 -12346 -105-390+300
Kalshi-10.5 -103 49¢46.5 -103 49¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Bally Bet-10.5 -10945.5 -112-530+350
BetAnything-10 -11546 -110-400+320
BetMGM-10.5 -10545.5 -112-400+320
BetOnline.ag-10 -12346 -105-390+310
betPARX-10.5 -10945.5 -112-530+350
BetRivers-10.5 -10945.5 -113-560+350
BetUS-10 -11546 -105-390+312
Bovada-10.5 -10546 -110-415+310
Courtside—61.5 -752-397+329
DraftKings-10.5 -10845.5 -112-410+320
FanDuel-9.5 -11845.5 -115-385+300
Fliff-10.5 -11545.5 -120-425+310
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -10545.5 -110-475+350
LowVig.ag-10 -11146 -103-390+310
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11046 -110-441+328
Pinnacle-10 -11646 -106-407+317
theScore Bet-9.5 -12045.5 -105-380+290

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +10.0 · +103 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Minnesota): TOM +10 at +103 (2.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +10.5 at -112 (0.6%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 52¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (-1.2%).
Not Nasty
Minnesota to win · +320 at DraftKings
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +320 (0.3%) · Kalshi 23¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel or TOM +300 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.7%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · TOM 46 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +10.0 · +103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 56°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-9.0-308
FPI-7.0-249
Sagarin-7.5-270
Massey-9.5-322
Market (17 books)-10.0-373
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.043.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +10.0+103-107+2.4%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML+320+316priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-115-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCF
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
UCF +3
should be UCF +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more TCU than the bookmore UCF →
Market
TCU by 3TOM, -106
The Four
SP+
TCU by 3.50.5 pts against us
FPI
a pick'em2.8 pts our side
Sagarin
UCF by 3.56.5 pts our side
Massey
TCU by 3on the market
Nasty Number
TCU by 2.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean UCF. SP+ at TCU by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number TCU by 2.5opened TCU by 3now TCU by 3SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.91.6 pts under the market
Massey
49.42.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.20.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.2opened 51now 46.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
TOM+3 -10646.5 -130+130-155
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢49.5 +105 47¢+134 41¢-148 58¢
Pinnacle+3 -10648.5 -106+132-152
All 20 books
UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
TOM+3 -10646.5 -130+130-155
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢49.5 +105 47¢+134 41¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+3 -10648.5 -113+130-159
BetAnything+3 -10548.5 -110+135-155
BetMGM+3 -10848.5 -105+130-155
BetOnline.ag+3 -10646.5 -130+135-155
betPARX+3 -10648.5 -113+130-159
BetRivers+3 -10748.5 -114+130-162
BetUS+3 -10548 -110+134-155
Bovada+3 -11048.5 -110+130-150
Courtside—54.5 -218+133-152
DraftKings+3 -10848.5 -108+130-155
FanDuel+3.5 -12048.5 -110+130-156
Fliff+3.5 -13048.5 -115+125-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10548.5 -105+130-155
LowVig.ag+3 -10246.5 -130+135-155
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048.5 -110+130-160
Pinnacle+3 -10648.5 -106+132-152
ReBet+3 -11448 -116+130-160
theScore Bet+3.5 -12048.5 -105+130-150

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +3.0 · -106 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (1.9%) · TOM +3 at -106 (1.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (1.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -108 (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +130 at FanDuel
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (UCF to win): Kalshi 41¢ (2.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +130 (1.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 46.5 · -130 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 47¢ (-2.4%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · TOM 46.5 at -130 (-2.7%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -108 (-3.1%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.2 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTCU by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.5+161
FPIPK+100
Sagarin-3.5-159
Massey+3.0+137
Market (18 books)+3.0+136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.547.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +3.0-106-113+1.7%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+130+124+1.2%
TotalOver 46.5-130-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia State
CFB tomorrow 1:00pm
Northern Illinois +10.5
should be Northern Illinois +9.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Georgia State by 10.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
Georgia State by 2.58.2 pts our side
FPI
Georgia State by 10.5on the market
Sagarin
Georgia State by 110.3 pts against us
Massey
Georgia State by 5.55.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 9.50.8 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Northern Illinois. Sagarin at Georgia State by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia State by 9.5opened Georgia State by 8.5now Georgia State by 10.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Northern Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.61.4 pts under the market
Massey
53.12.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.9opened 55now 56SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia State spreadTotal (over)Georgia State MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-10.5 -10856 -115-400+310
Pinnacle-10.5 -10156 -113-407+317
All 19 books
Georgia State spreadTotal (over)Georgia State MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-10.5 -10856 -115-400+310
Bally Bet-10.5 -10756.5 -110-500+370
BetAnything-10 -11556 -110-415+335
BetMGM-10.5 -10856.5 -108-400+310
BetOnline.ag-10.5 -10856 -115-400+316
betPARX-10.5 -10756.5 -110-500+370
BetRivers-10.5 -10756.5 -110-530+370
BetUS-10.5 -11056 -115-400+320
Bovada-10 -11556.5 -110-415+310
Courtside—67.5 -319-383+319
DraftKings-10.5 -10856.5 -110-395+310
FanDuel-10.5 -11055.5 -115-420+320
Fliff-10.5 -11556.5 -115-425+315
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -11056.5 -110-450+325
LowVig.ag-10.5 -10456 -114-400+316
MyBookie.ag-10.5 -11056 -110-403+309
Pinnacle-10.5 -10156 -113-407+317
ReBet-11 -11456 -116-441+330
theScore Bet-10.5 -11056.5 -110-380+290

Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +10.5 · -112 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Northern Illinois): FanDuel or BetMGM +10.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings or TOM +10.5 at -112 (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Northern Illinois to win · +310 at DraftKings
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northern Illinois to win): FanDuel +320 (-0.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +310 (-0.8%).
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (0.2%) · TOM 56 at -105 (0.1%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -105 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from Northern Illinois, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-119
FPI-10.5-363
Sagarin-11.0-375
Massey-5.5-192
Market (18 books)-10.5-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.053.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Illinois Huskies +10.5-112-112+0.0%
MoneylineNorthern Illinois Huskies ML+310+324priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-105-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at Baylor
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Baylor -10
should be Baylor -10 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 10, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 10TOM, -102
The Four
SP+
Baylor by 10
FPI
Baylor by 11
Sagarin
Baylor by 11.5
Massey
Baylor by 8
Nasty Number
Baylor by 100.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 10opened Baylor by 8.5now Baylor by 10SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 8.5 to Baylor by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.80.7 pts under the market
Massey
51.24.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
532.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53opened 53.5now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
TOM-10 -10255.5 -105-375+285
Kalshi-9.5 -112 51¢55.5 -107 50¢-360 77¢+296 24¢
Pinnacle-9.5 -10755.5 -108-375+296
All 20 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
TOM-10 -10255.5 -105-375+285
Kalshi-9.5 -112 51¢55.5 -107 50¢-360 77¢+296 24¢
Bally Bet-10 -10755.5 -108-420+300
BetAnything-9.5 -11055.5 -105-370+292
BetMGM-9.5 -11055.5 -108-375+300
BetOnline.ag-10 -10255.5 -105-375+299
betPARX-10 -10755.5 -108-420+300
BetRivers-10 -10855.5 -109-420+300
BetUS-9.5 -11055.5 -105-375+300
Bovada-9.5 -11055.5 -110-380+290
Courtside—68.5 -574-369+308
DraftKings-9.5 -11555.5 -110-380+300
FanDuel-9.5 -10855.5 -108-350+275
Fliff-8.5 -12555.5 -115-395+290
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11555.5 -105-350+260
LowVig.ag-10 -10655.5 -103-375+299
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11055.5 -110-370+280
Pinnacle-9.5 -10755.5 -108-375+296
ReBet-9.5 -11955.5 -111-370+280
theScore Bet-8.5 -11555.5 -110-340+270

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado +9.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colorado): DraftKings +9.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 50¢ (-3.0%) · TOM +10 at -118 (-3.5%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (-3.6%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -112 (-4.1%).
Not Nasty
Colorado to win · +285 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 23 cents fair, a play under 19. Where, best first (Colorado to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +300 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 24¢ (-2.0%) · TOM +285 (-2.7%) · FanDuel +275 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi, FanDuel or BetMGM 55.5 at -112 (-0.8%) · TOM 55.5 at -115 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Baylor). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-10.0-348
FPI-11.0-379
Sagarin-11.5-392
Massey-8.0-293
Market (18 books)-10.0-359
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.553.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado Buffaloes +9.5-105+105-2.4%
MoneylineColorado Buffaloes ML+285+329-2.7%
TotalUnder 55.5-115-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -10.0 here against -9.5 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston College
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Virginia Tech -14
should be Virginia Tech -14.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Boston College →
Market
Virginia Tech by 14TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Virginia Tech by 15
FPI
Virginia Tech by 15
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 11
Massey
Virginia Tech by 6
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 14.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 14.5opened Virginia Tech by 14now Virginia Tech by 14SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.95.9 pts over the market
Massey
54.87.8 pts over the market
Weather
-5.924 mph wind, 87% chance of rain, takes 5.9 points off
Nasty Number
481 pts over the market
Under 47 is a weather call. 24 mph wind and 87% chance of rain, worth about 5.9 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48opened 54now 47SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 54 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+14 -10547 -110+430-600
Kalshi+14.5 -121 53¢45.5 -121 53¢+490 16¢-609 85¢
Pinnacle+14 -10347 -112+453-634
All 20 books
Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+14 -10547 -110+430-600
Kalshi+14.5 -121 53¢45.5 -121 53¢+490 16¢-609 85¢
Bally Bet+14 -10947.5 -108+450-625
BetAnything+14 -11047.5 -105+450-650
BetMGM+14 -10847.5 -105+475-625
BetOnline.ag+14 -10547 -110+446-600
betPARX+14 -10947.5 -108+450-625
BetRivers+14 -11047.5 -109+420-625
BetUS+14 -10547 -110+485-670
Bovada+14 -10547.5 -105+450-650
Courtside—41.5 +165+455-576
DraftKings+14 -10847.5 -108+440-600
FanDuel+13.5 +10047.5 -102+500-720
Fliff+14.5 -12547.5 -115+450-665
Hard Rock Bet+14.5 -11047.5 -105+500-750
LowVig.ag+14 -10147 -108+446-600
MyBookie.ag+14 -11047 -110+480-725
Pinnacle+14 -10347 -112+453-634
ReBet+14.5 -11647 -116+500-752
theScore Bet+14.5 -11546.5 -120+500-800

Marked: best for the Boston College side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia Tech -14.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia Tech): Kalshi -14.5 at 48¢ (-0.4%) · BetMGM -14 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings -14 at -112 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -122 (-1.5%) · TOM -14 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Virginia Tech to win · -600 at DraftKings
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Virginia Tech to win): DraftKings, TOM or Kalshi -600 (-2.0%) · BetMGM -625 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -720 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 5.9 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (-0.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · TOM 47 at -110 (-1.3%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -108 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 24 mph wind, 56°F, 87% chance of rain. Total pulled down 5.9 for it.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Boston College).

TOM: moneyline +449 here against +576 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+546
FPI+15.0+550
Sagarin+11.0+381
Massey+6.0+199
Market (18 books)+14.0+449
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.048.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Tech Hokies -14.5+101+102-0.4%
MoneylineVirginia Tech Hokies ML-600-514priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 47.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 6.4.

TOM: moneyline +449 here against +576 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh PanthersBucknell at Pittsburgh
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Bucknell +52.5
should be Bucknell +51.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Pittsburgh by 52.5.

The spread

← more Bucknell than the bookmore Pittsburgh →
Market
Pittsburgh by 52.5TOM, -130
The Four
Sagarin
Pittsburgh by 48.5
Nasty Number
Pittsburgh by 51.51.1 pts off the market
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLBucknell ML
TOM-52.5 -13064.5 -125——
Kalshi—62.5 -121 53¢——
Pinnacle-53.5 -10763 -107——
All 15 books
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLBucknell ML
TOM-52.5 -13064.5 -125——
Kalshi—62.5 -121 53¢——
Bally Bet-51.5 -13662.5 -114——
BetOnline.ag-52.5 -13064.5 -105——
betPARX-51.5 -13662.5 -114——
BetRivers-51.5 -13662.5 -114——
Courtside—75.5 -725——
DraftKings-53.5 -11263.5 -110——
FanDuel-54.5 -11063.5 -110——
Fliff-53.5 -11563.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-54.5 -11063.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-52.5 -13064.5 -105——
Pinnacle-53.5 -10763 -107——
ReBet-54.5 -11063.5 -111——
theScore Bet-54.5 -10563.5 -115——

Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bucknell +52.5 · +110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Bucknell): TOM +52.5 at +110 (6.9%) · FanDuel +54.5 at -110 (6.5%) · DraftKings +53.5 at -108 (5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -49.5, now -53.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Pittsburgh).

TOM: spread -52.5 here against -53.3 consensus.

TOM: total 64.5 here against 63.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPittsburgh by 51.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Bucknell
FPIdoesn't rate Bucknell
Sagarin-48.5—
Masseyrates Bucknell and Pittsburgh on different scales
Market (13 books)-52.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBucknell Bison +52.5+110-120+6.9%

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.7.

TOM: spread -52.5 here against -53.3 consensus; total 64.5 here against 63.2 consensus.

The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Illinois +26
should be Illinois +24.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 26.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →
Market
Ohio State by 26TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 21
FPI
Ohio State by 24.5
Sagarin
Ohio State by 20.5
Massey
Ohio State by 20
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 24.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 24.5opened Ohio State by 27now Ohio State by 26SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Ohio State by 27 to Ohio State by 26. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.4on the market
Massey
51.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.81.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.8opened 53now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLIllinois ML
TOM-26 -11054.5 -113——
Pinnacle-27 -10354 -105—+1621
All 20 books
Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLIllinois ML
TOM-26 -11054.5 -113——
Bally Bet-27.5 -10953.5 -112—+1700
BetAnything-26 -11054 -110——
BetMGM-26.5 -11254.5 -105—+1900
BetOnline.ag-25.5 -11054.5 -113—+1550
betPARX-27.5 -10953.5 -112—+1700
BetRivers-27.5 -11053.5 -113—+1600
BetUS-26 -11054 -110——
Bovada-26.5 -11554 -105—+1300
Courtside—72.5 -2043—+1758
DraftKings-26.5 -11053.5 -115—+1600
Fanatics-26.5 -11053.5 -110—+1800
FanDuel-27.5 -10554.5 -105—+1600
Fliff-26.5 -12053.5 -125——
Hard Rock Bet-26.5 -11553.5 -110-3000+1100
LowVig.ag-25.5 -10654.5 -112—+1550
MyBookie.ag-26 -11054 -110—+1290
Pinnacle-27 -10354 -105—+1621
ReBet-26.5 -11653.5 -114-3030+1125
theScore Bet-27.5 -10554.5 -105—+1800

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois +27.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): FanDuel +27.5 at -115 (2.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +26.5 at -110 (1.6%) · TOM +26 at -110 (1.0%) · BetMGM +26.5 at -118 (-0.2%).
Blowout line
Illinois to win · +1600 at FanDuel
We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): BetMGM +1900 (0.7%) · Fanatics +1800 (0.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +1600 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 54.5 at -107 (0.8%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.

TOM: spread -26.0 here against -26.8 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 24.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-21.0-998
FPI-24.5-1650
Sagarin-20.5-925
Massey-20.0-909
Market (19 books)-26.0-3435
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.552.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini +27.5-115-129+2.8%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML+1600+1646priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-107-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread -26.0 here against -26.8 consensus; total 54.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

The line is -26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Louisville -13
should be Louisville -12.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →
Market
Louisville by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Louisville by 12
FPI
Louisville by 11.5
Sagarin
Louisville by 12.5
Massey
Louisville by 11.5
Nasty Number
Louisville by 12.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 12.5opened Louisville by 13.5now Louisville by 13SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 13.5 to Louisville by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.24.8 pts under the market
Massey
60.93.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.60.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.6opened 58now 57SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 58 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
TOM-13 -11057 -115-515+365
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢57.5 -107 50¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -11257.5 -103-527+391
All 21 books
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
TOM-13 -11057 -115-515+365
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢57.5 -107 50¢-524 83¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet-13.5 -10957 -110-590+425
BetAnything-13 -10557 -110-550+410
BetMGM-13 -10857.5 -108-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11057 -115-515+393
betPARX-13.5 -10957 -110-590+425
BetRivers-13.5 -11057 -112-625+420
BetUS-12 -11057 -110-515+400
Bovada-13 -10557 -110-550+390
Courtside—71.5 -544-515+413
DraftKings-12.5 -11557.5 -108-535+400
Fanatics-13 -11057 -110-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11057.5 -110-520+385
Fliff-13.5 -11057.5 -115-565+395
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11556.5 -115-550+375
LowVig.ag-13 -10657 -114-515+393
MyBookie.ag-13 -11057 -110-526+380
Pinnacle-12.5 -11257.5 -103-527+391
ReBet-13.5 -11157 -116-526+380
theScore Bet-12.5 -11057.5 -105-600+400

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wake Forest): DraftKings +12.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +13 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (-2.3%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Wake Forest to win · +400 at DraftKings
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Kalshi +400 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +390 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +385 (-1.3%) · TOM +365 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 57.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 61. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 57 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 57.5 at -107 (-2.7%) · TOM 57 at -115 (-3.2%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (-3.4%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Wake Forest).

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-404
FPI-11.5-394
Sagarin-12.5-421
Massey-11.5-401
Market (19 books)-13.0-493
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.056.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons +13.0-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML+400+416priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-19 21:05; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas Tech
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Under 56.5
should be 54.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 55.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 34.5.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →
Market
Texas Tech by 34.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 37
FPI
Texas Tech by 27
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 32
Massey
Texas Tech by 31.5
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 33.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 33.5opened Texas Tech by 37.5now Texas Tech by 34.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 34.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5TOM, Under -112
The Four
SP+ pace
52.63.9 pts under the market
Massey
50.65.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.64.9 pts under the market
Under 56.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 55now 56.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLSam Houston ML
TOM-34.5 -11056.5 -108——
Kalshi—55.5 -116 52¢——
Pinnacle-34.5 -11056 -106——
All 20 books
Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLSam Houston ML
TOM-34.5 -11056.5 -108——
Kalshi—55.5 -116 52¢——
Bally Bet-34.5 -11055.5 -112——
BetAnything-34.5 -11056 -110——
BetMGM-34.5 -10856.5 -105——
BetOnline.ag-34.5 -11056.5 -108——
betPARX-34.5 -11055.5 -112——
BetRivers-34.5 -11255.5 -113——
BetUS-34.5 -11056 -110——
Bovada-34.5 -11556 -110——
Courtside—66.5 -411——
DraftKings-34.5 -10855.5 -115——
Fanatics-34.5 -11056 -110——
FanDuel-34.5 -11056.5 -106——
Fliff-34.5 -11556.5 -110——
Hard Rock Bet-34.5 -11556.5 -105——
LowVig.ag-34.5 -10656.5 -106——
Pinnacle-34.5 -11056 -106——
ReBet-35.5 -10956 -116——
theScore Bet-34.5 -11056.5 +100——

Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +34.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Sam Houston): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +34.5 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings +34.5 at -112 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Sam Houston to win · +4500 (2¢) at Kalshi
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Sam Houston to win): Kalshi or BetMGM +4579 (-0.6%) · FanDuel +4000 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. That's 4.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 56.5 at -112 (1.6%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 49¢ (1.2%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (1.2%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -38.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston).

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 33.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-37.0—
FPI-27.0-2147
Sagarin-32.0—
Massey-31.5-4599
Market (18 books)-34.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +34.5-110-110+0.0%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+4500+6351priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-112-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.0 consensus.

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at Toledo
CFB tomorrow 11:00am
Toledo -3
should be Toledo -3 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 3, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
Toledo by 3TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
San Diego State by 0.5
FPI
Toledo by 3.5
Sagarin
Toledo by 3.5
Massey
Toledo by 4.5
Nasty Number
Toledo by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 3opened Toledo by 2.5now Toledo by 3SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 2.5 to Toledo by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
43.87.7 pts under the market
Massey
50.31.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
474.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 49now 51.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-3 -11051.5 -110-150+125
Pinnacle-3 +10251.5 -107-138+120
All 19 books
Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-3 -11051.5 -110-150+125
Bally Bet-2.5 -11051.5 -113-136+110
BetAnything-3 -11051 -110-145+125
BetMGM-3 -10551.5 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-3 -11051.5 -110-150+130
betPARX-2.5 -11051.5 -113-136+110
BetRivers-2.5 -11051.5 -113-136+110
BetUS-3 -11051.5 -110-150+129
Bovada-2.5 -11551.5 -110-140+120
Courtside—65.5 -595-145+127
DraftKings-3 -10851.5 -112-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -12251.5 -105-146+122
Fliff-2.5 -12551.5 -115-150+115
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12051.5 -110-145+125
LowVig.ag-3 +10151.5 -108-150+130
MyBookie.ag-3 -11051.5 -110-147+120
Pinnacle-3 +10251.5 -107-138+120
ReBet-3 -10551.5 -114-147+120
theScore Bet-2.5 -12551.5 -105-145+125

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -3.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Toledo): BetMGM -3 at -105 (-0.8%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -122 (-1.1%) · DraftKings -3 at -108 (-1.5%) · TOM -3 at -110 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Toledo to win · -150 at TOM
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Toledo to win): BetMGM or FanDuel -145 (-0.6%) · DraftKings -148 (-1.1%) · TOM -150 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 51.5 at -108 (0.4%) · BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -115 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.4 toward Toledo).

TOM: moneyline -144 here against -131 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+102
FPI-3.5-164
Sagarin-3.5-165
Massey-4.5-181
Market (18 books)-3.0-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadToledo Rockets -3.0-105-102-0.8%
MoneylineToledo Rockets ML-150-142-1.4%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: moneyline -144 here against -131 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at Kentucky
CFB tomorrow 11:45am
Kentucky -20.5
should be Kentucky -20.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →
Market
Kentucky by 20.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Kentucky by 21
FPI
Kentucky by 18
Sagarin
Kentucky by 25.5
Massey
Kentucky by 17.5
Nasty Number
Kentucky by 20.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kentucky by 20.5opened Kentucky by 21now Kentucky by 20.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.93.4 pts over the market
Massey
54.91.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
55.92.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.9opened 56now 53.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-20.5 -11053.5 -110——
Kalshi-20.5 -112 51¢54.5 -107 50¢-1429 93¢+1074 8¢
Pinnacle-20.5 -10854.5 +100-1382+807
All 20 books
Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-20.5 -11053.5 -110——
Kalshi-20.5 -112 51¢54.5 -107 50¢-1429 93¢+1074 8¢
Bally Bet-20.5 -11354 -112-2000+900
BetAnything-20.5 -11053.5 -110-1500+865
BetMGM-20.5 -10853.5 -112-1400+900
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11053.5 -110-1500+874
betPARX-20.5 -11354 -112-2000+900
BetRivers-20.5 -11454 -113-2000+900
BetUS-20.5 -11053.5 -110-1500+850
Bovada-20.5 -11054 -110-1500+775
Courtside—74.5 -1535-1467+953
DraftKings-20.5 -11053.5 -115-1600+900
FanDuel-20.5 -11054.5 -110-1800+920
Fliff-20.5 -11554.5 -115-1835+880
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -11553.5 -115-1200+750
LowVig.ag-20.5 -10653.5 -108-1500+874
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11054 -110-1442+799
Pinnacle-20.5 -10854.5 +100-1382+807
ReBet-20.5 -11954 -114-1299+730
theScore Bet-20.5 -11054.5 -110-1800+900

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Alabama): Kalshi +20.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +20.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
Blowout line
South Alabama to win · +1074 (8¢) at Kalshi
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): Kalshi 8¢ (1.3%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +920 (0.1%).
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 53.5 at -110 (0.4%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 50¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $371 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKentucky by 20.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-21.0-998
FPI-18.0-741
Sagarin-25.5-1903
Massey-17.5-692
Market (18 books)-20.5-1252
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.555.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +20.5-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+1074+915priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan EaglesLindenwood at Eastern Michigan
CFB tomorrow 12:00pm
Lindenwood +25.5
should be Lindenwood +22.5 · getting 3 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Eastern Michigan by 25.5.

The spread

← more Lindenwood than the bookmore Eastern Michigan →
Market
Eastern Michigan by 25.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Eastern Michigan by 15.5
Nasty Number
Eastern Michigan by 22.52.8 pts off the market
Eastern Michigan spreadTotal (over)Eastern Michigan MLLindenwood ML
TOM-25.5 -11050.5 -120——
Kalshi—51.5 -103 49¢-2580 96¢+1464 6¢
Pinnacle-25.5 -10751.5 -104—+1121
All 15 books
Eastern Michigan spreadTotal (over)Eastern Michigan MLLindenwood ML
TOM-25.5 -11050.5 -120——
Kalshi—51.5 -103 49¢-2580 96¢+1464 6¢
Bally Bet-26.5 -11350.5 -114——
BetOnline.ag-25.5 -11550.5 -120——
betPARX-26.5 -11350.5 -114——
BetRivers-26.5 -11350.5 -114——
Courtside-25.5 -10851.5 -103-2122+1290
DraftKings-25.5 -11051.5 -105-2400+1200
FanDuel-26.5 -11050.5 -110—+1600
Fliff-26.5 -12050.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-26.5 -11050.5 -115-3000+1200
LowVig.ag-25.5 -11150.5 -120——
Pinnacle-25.5 -10751.5 -104—+1121
ReBet-26.5 -11450.5 -116——
theScore Bet-26.5 -10550.5 -115—+1500

Marked: best for the Eastern Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lindenwood +26.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Lindenwood): FanDuel +26.5 at -110 (6.1%) · DraftKings or TOM +25.5 at -110 (5.0%).
Blowout line
Lindenwood to win · +1600 at FanDuel
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Lindenwood to win): FanDuel +1600 (1.3%) · Kalshi 6¢ (0.8%) · DraftKings +1200 (-0.5%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -27.0, now -26.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Lindenwood).

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -25.5 here against -25.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEastern Michigan by 22.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Lindenwood
FPIdoesn't rate Lindenwood
Sagarin-15.5-563
Masseyrates Lindenwood and Eastern Michigan on different scales
Market (13 books)-25.5-2583
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLindenwood Lions +26.5-110-141+6.1%
MoneylineLindenwood Lions ML+1600+1299priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -25.5 here against -25.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

The line is -25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at Purdue
CFB tomorrow 1:00pm
Notre Dame -27
should be Notre Dame -27.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore Purdue →
Market
Notre Dame by 27TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 26.5
FPI
Notre Dame by 26
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 17
Massey
Notre Dame by 24
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 27.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 27.5opened Notre Dame by 27.5now Notre Dame by 27SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 27.5 to Notre Dame by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.40.4 pts over the market
Massey
59.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.90.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.9opened 57.5now 58SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
TOM+27 -11058 +105——
Kalshi—57.5 -107 50¢+1775 5¢-2580 96¢
Pinnacle+28 -11757.5 -103+1702—
All 21 books
Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
TOM+27 -11058 +105——
Kalshi—57.5 -107 50¢+1775 5¢-2580 96¢
Bally Bet+27.5 -11058 -110+1700—
BetAnything+27 -11058 +105——
BetMGM+27.5 -11057.5 -110+1900—
BetOnline.ag+27 -11058 +105+1592—
betPARX+27.5 -11058 -110+1700—
BetRivers+27.5 -11258 -112+1600—
BetUS+27 -11057.5 -110——
Bovada+28 -12057 -115+1300—
Courtside—62.5 -213+1878—
DraftKings+27.5 -10857.5 -105+1700—
Fanatics+27.5 -11057.5 -110+2000—
FanDuel+27.5 -10457.5 -110+1600—
Fliff+27.5 -12057.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet+27.5 -10557.5 -110+1100-3000
LowVig.ag+27 -10658 +106+1592—
MyBookie.ag+27.5 -11057 -110+1355—
Pinnacle+28 -11757.5 -103+1702—
ReBet+28 -11957 -116——
theScore Bet+27.5 +10057.5 -105+1500—

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Notre Dame -27.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Notre Dame): TOM -27 at -110 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -27.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · Fanatics -27.5 at -110 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -27.5 at -112 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -27.5 at -118 (-4.7%).
Blowout line
Notre Dame to win · -2580 (96¢) at Kalshi
We make it 96 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Notre Dame to win): Kalshi 96¢ (-0.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -4500 (-2.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -5000 (-2.3%).
Off the band
the Under 58.0 · -125 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 57.5 at -110 (-3.5%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 51¢ (-3.8%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -115 (-4.6%) · TOM 58 at -125 (-5.4%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -120 (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.

TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.7 consensus.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 27.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++26.5+2059
FPI+26.0+1995
Sagarin+17.0+666
Massey+24.0+1548
Market (19 books)+27.0+3738
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.058.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNotre Dame Fighting Irish -27.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineNotre Dame Fighting Irish ML-2580-2242priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 58.0-125-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.7 consensus; total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

The line is +27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State SeminolesCentral Arkansas at Florida State
CFB tomorrow 2:00pm
Central Arkansas +45.5
should be Central Arkansas +44 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida State by 45.5.

The spread

← more Central Arkansas than the bookmore Florida State →
Market
Florida State by 45.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Florida State by 38.5
Nasty Number
Florida State by 441.7 pts off the market
Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLCentral Arkansas ML
TOM-45.5 -11062.5 -125——
Pinnacle-46.5 -10763 -105——
All 14 books
Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLCentral Arkansas ML
TOM-45.5 -11062.5 -125——
Bally Bet-45.5 -11362 -108——
BetOnline.ag-45.5 -11562.5 -125——
betPARX-45.5 -11362 -108——
BetRivers-45.5 -11462 -109——
Courtside-45.5 -11363.5 -103——
DraftKings-45.5 -11563.5 -105——
FanDuel-46.5 -11563.5 -110——
Fliff-46.5 -11062.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-45.5 -10561.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-45.5 -11562.5 -125——
Pinnacle-46.5 -10763 -105——
ReBet-45.5 -10661.5 -113——
theScore Bet-45.5 -11063.5 -110——

Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Arkansas +46.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Arkansas): FanDuel +46.5 at -105 (6.8%) · DraftKings +45.5 at -105 (4.1%) · TOM +45.5 at -110 (2.9%).
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -43.5, now -46.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida State).

TOM: spread -45.5 here against -46.1 consensus.

TOM: total 62.5 here against 62.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida State by 4430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Central Arkansas
FPIdoesn't rate Central Arkansas
Sagarin-38.5—
Masseyrates Central Arkansas and Florida State on different scales
Market (13 books)-45.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Arkansas Bears +46.5-105-138+6.8%

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.3.

TOM: spread -45.5 here against -46.1 consensus; total 62.5 here against 62.8 consensus.

The line is -45.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western Michigan
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Boise State -7
should be Boise State -7 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Western Michigan →
Market
Boise State by 7TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 7.5
FPI
Boise State by 6
Sagarin
Boise State by 2.5
Massey
Boise State by 8
Nasty Number
Boise State by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 7opened Boise State by 8now Boise State by 7SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.22.3 pts under the market
Massey
50.61.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.90.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 47.5now 49.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLBoise State ML
TOM+7 -10549.5 -115+230-290
Pinnacle+7.5 -11449.5 -114+242-297
All 19 books
Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLBoise State ML
TOM+7 -10549.5 -115+230-290
Bally Bet+7 -10850.5 -120+220-286
BetAnything+7.5 -11050 -110+240-290
BetMGM+7 -10549.5 -112+230-285
BetOnline.ag+7 -10549.5 -115+237-290
betPARX+7 -10850.5 -120+220-286
BetRivers+7 -10850.5 -120+220-286
BetUS+7.5 -11549.5 -115+240-290
Bovada+7.5 -11550 -110+240-290
Courtside—68.5 -1261+236-278
DraftKings+7.5 -11849.5 -110+230-285
FanDuel+7.5 -12049.5 -115+235-295
Fliff+7.5 -12550.5 -110+225-295
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -12049.5 -115+250-325
LowVig.ag+7 -10149.5 -114+237-290
MyBookie.ag+7 -11050 -110+244-319
Pinnacle+7.5 -11449.5 -114+242-297
ReBet+7.5 -11650 -114+244-319
theScore Bet+7.5 -11550.5 -110+240-290

Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boise State -7.0 · -115 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Boise State): BetMGM or TOM -7 at -115 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Boise State to win · -290 at TOM
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Boise State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -285 (-2.0%) · TOM -290 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -295 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · FanDuel or TOM 49.5 at -115 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+262
FPI+6.0+202
Sagarin+2.5+120
Massey+8.0+295
Market (18 books)+7.0+240
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.548.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBoise State Broncos -7.0-115-106-1.9%
MoneylineBoise State Broncos ML-290-258-2.3%
TotalOver 49.5-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +271 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Robert Morris Colonials at Buffalo BullsRobert Morris at Buffalo
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Robert Morris +28.5
should be Robert Morris +25 · getting 3.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Buffalo by 28.5.

The spread

← more Robert Morris than the bookmore Buffalo →
Market
Buffalo by 28.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Buffalo by 17.5
Nasty Number
Buffalo by 253.4 pts off the market
Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLRobert Morris ML
TOM-28.5 -11045.5 -125——
Kalshi—45.5-3476 97¢+1775 5¢
Pinnacle-28.5 -11046 -114——
All 15 books
Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLRobert Morris ML
TOM-28.5 -11045.5 -125——
Kalshi—45.5-3476 97¢+1775 5¢
Bally Bet-28 -12445.5 -103——
BetOnline.ag-28.5 -11545.5 -125——
betPARX-28 -12445.5 -103——
BetRivers-28 -12445.5 -103——
Courtside-28.5 -10846.5 -110—+1999
DraftKings-28.5 -11046.5 -112—+1800
FanDuel-28.5 -11446.5 -108—+2000
Fliff-28.5 -11545.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-29.5 -11045.5 -110—+2250
LowVig.ag-28.5 -11545.5 -125——
Pinnacle-28.5 -11046 -114——
ReBet-29.5 -11545.5 -115——
theScore Bet-28.5 -11046.5 -115—+3000

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Robert Morris +28.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Robert Morris): FanDuel +28.5 at -106 (7.4%) · DraftKings or TOM +28.5 at -110 (6.5%).
Blowout line
Robert Morris to win · +1999 at FanDuel
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Robert Morris to win): FanDuel +2000 (0.4%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +1800 (-0.1%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened -29.0, now -28.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris).

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBuffalo by 2530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Robert Morris
FPIdoesn't rate Robert Morris
Sagarin-17.5-674
Masseyrates Robert Morris and Buffalo on different scales
Market (13 books)-28.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadRobert Morris Colonials +28.5-110-143+6.5%
MoneylineRobert Morris Colonials ML+1999+1826priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.

The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue DevilsWilliam & Mary at Duke
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
William & Mary +43.5
should be William & Mary +42.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Duke by 43.5.

The spread

← more William & Mary than the bookmore Duke →
Market
Duke by 43.5TOM, -120
The Four
Sagarin
Duke by 39
Nasty Number
Duke by 42.50.9 pts off the market
Duke spreadTotal (over)Duke MLWilliam & Mary ML
TOM-43.5 -12062.5 -120——
Kalshi—62.5 -107 50¢——
Pinnacle-44.5 -10462.5 -103——
All 15 books
Duke spreadTotal (over)Duke MLWilliam & Mary ML
TOM-43.5 -12062.5 -120——
Kalshi—62.5 -107 50¢——
Bally Bet-43.5 -11262.5 -108——
BetOnline.ag-43.5 -12062.5 -120——
betPARX-43.5 -11262.5 -108——
BetRivers-43.5 -11362.5 -109——
Courtside-43.5 -11362.5 -106——
DraftKings-43.5 -11562.5 -108——
FanDuel-43.5 -11062.5 -110——
Fliff-43.5 -11562.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-43.5 -10562.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-43.5 -12062.5 -120——
Pinnacle-44.5 -10462.5 -103——
ReBet-43.5 -10962.5 -113——
theScore Bet-43.5 -11062.5 -110——

Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

William & Mary +43.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (William & Mary): TOM +43.5 at +100 (1.2%) · DraftKings +43.5 at -105 (0.0%) · FanDuel +43.5 at -110 (-1.2%).
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Duke).

TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onDuke by 42.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate William & Mary
FPIdoesn't rate William & Mary
Sagarin-39.0—
Masseyrates William & Mary and Duke on different scales
Market (13 books)-43.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWilliam and Mary Tribe +43.5+100-105+1.2%

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-22 09:07.

TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.

The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at Florida
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Florida -3.5
should be Florida -3.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Florida →
Market
Florida by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Florida by 4.5
FPI
Florida by 1
Sagarin
Florida by 4
Massey
Ole Miss by 4
Nasty Number
Florida by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 3.5opened Florida by 3now Florida by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida by 3 to Florida by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.83.2 pts under the market
Massey
60.41.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.10.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.1opened 59.5now 59SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
TOM-3.5 -10559 -105-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢59.5 -103 49¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Pinnacle-3.5 -10159 -109-167+144
All 20 books
Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
TOM-3.5 -10559 -105-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢59.5 -103 49¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10559 -110-180+148
BetAnything-3.5 -11059 -110-165+145
BetMGM-3.5 -10558.5 -112-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -10559 -105-165+145
betPARX-3.5 -10559 -110-180+148
BetRivers-3.5 -10859 -112-182+145
BetUS-3.5 -10559.5 -105-165+142
Bovada-3.5 -10559 -110-170+145
Courtside—51.5 +199-159+139
DraftKings-3.5 -10559.5 -102-162+136
Fanatics-3.5 -10559 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 -10458.5 -115-170+140
Fliff-3.5 -11058.5 -125-175+135
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10558.5 -115-170+140
MyBookie.ag-3.5 +10059 -110-169+137
Pinnacle-3.5 -10159 -109-167+144
ReBet-3.5 -10959 -114-169+137
theScore Bet-3.5 -10559.5 -110-165+140

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +3.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ole Miss): BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -118 (-2.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-3.2%).
Not Nasty
Ole Miss to win · +135 at DraftKings
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Ole Miss to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +140 (-1.8%) · DraftKings or TOM +136 (-2.5%) · Kalshi 41¢ (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 59.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 59 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 59.5 at 52¢ (-1.9%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 58.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -118 (-2.4%) · TOM 59 at -115 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.5-177
FPI-1.0-104
Sagarin-4.0-170
Massey+4.0+170
Market (18 books)-3.5-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.058.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOle Miss Rebels +3.5-115-106-1.9%
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML+135+151-2.7%
TotalUnder 59.0-115-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering HerdGardner-Webb at Marshall
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Gardner-Webb +24
should be Gardner-Webb +20.5 · getting 3.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Marshall by 24.

The spread

← more Gardner-Webb than the bookmore Marshall →
Market
Marshall by 24TOM, +100
The Four
Sagarin
Marshall by 14
Nasty Number
Marshall by 20.53.3 pts off the market
Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLGardner-Webb ML
TOM-24 +10051.5 -120——
Kalshi—52.5 -107 50¢-1684 94¢+1242 7¢
Pinnacle-23.5 -11052.5 -105-2468+932
All 15 books
Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLGardner-Webb ML
TOM-24 +10051.5 -120——
Kalshi—52.5 -107 50¢-1684 94¢+1242 7¢
Bally Bet-23.5 -11052.5 -110—+1200
BetOnline.ag-24 -11051.5 -120——
betPARX-23.5 -11052.5 -110—+1200
BetRivers-23.5 -11052.5 -110—+1200
Courtside-23.5 -10852.5 -103-1509+1008
DraftKings-23.5 -11052.5 -105-1650+950
FanDuel-23.5 -11051.5 -110—+1280
Fliff-23.5 -12052.5 -115—+1215
Hard Rock Bet-24.5 -10551.5 -115-2000+1000
LowVig.ag-24 -11051.5 -120——
Pinnacle-23.5 -11052.5 -105-2468+932
ReBet-24.5 -10651.5 -120-2273+970
theScore Bet-23.5 -11551.5 -110—+1500

Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Gardner-Webb +24.0 · -120 at TOM
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Gardner-Webb): FanDuel or DraftKings +23.5 at -110 (4.9%) · TOM +24 at -120 (4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Gardner-Webb to win · +1200
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Gardner-Webb to win): FanDuel +1280 (2.1%) · Kalshi 7¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings +950 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened -26.0, now -23.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Gardner-Webb).

Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 52.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMarshall by 20.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Gardner-Webb
FPIdoesn't rate Gardner-Webb
Sagarin-14.0-467
Masseyrates Gardner-Webb and Marshall on different scales
Market (13 books)-24.0-2044
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +24.0-120-146+4.9%
MoneylineGardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML+1200+970priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -24.0 here against -23.6 consensus; total 51.5 here against 52.3 consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at Georgia
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Georgia -13.5
should be Georgia -13.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 13.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 13
FPI
Georgia by 12.5
Sagarin
Georgia by 9
Massey
Georgia by 11
Nasty Number
Georgia by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 13.5opened Georgia by 14now Georgia by 13.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 14 to Georgia by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
43.70.8 pts under the market
Massey
47.22.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
45.51 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.5opened 44now 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
TOM-13.5 -11244.5 -105-550+400
Kalshi-13.5 -116 52¢45.5 +105 47¢-564 84¢+456 17¢
Pinnacle-14 +10244.5 -101-591+428
All 21 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
TOM-13.5 -11244.5 -105-550+400
Kalshi-13.5 -116 52¢45.5 +105 47¢-564 84¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-14 -10744 -112-670+460
BetAnything-13 -11044 -110-550+410
BetMGM-13.5 -11043.5 -118-550+425
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -11244.5 -105-550+415
betPARX-14 -10744 -112-670+460
BetRivers-14 -10844 -113-670+450
BetUS-13 -11044 -110-550+425
Bovada-13.5 -11544 -110-600+425
Courtside—51.5 -305-553+439
DraftKings-13.5 -11243.5 -118-575+425
Fanatics-13.5 -11544 -110-575+425
FanDuel-13.5 -11044.5 -102-610+440
Fliff-13.5 -12044.5 -110-620+425
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11043.5 -115-650+425
LowVig.ag-13.5 -10844.5 -103-550+415
MyBookie.ag-13.5 -11044 -110-645+439
Pinnacle-14 +10244.5 -101-591+428
ReBet-13.5 -11444 -114-649+450
theScore Bet-13.5 -10544.5 +100-650+425

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oklahoma): Kalshi +13.5 at 49¢ (-0.6%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +13.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Oklahoma to win · +456 (17¢) at Kalshi
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): Kalshi 17¢ (0.5%) · FanDuel +440 (-0.0%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +425 (-0.5%) · TOM +400 (-1.5%).
Off the band
the Over 44.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 44.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 47¢ (-0.7%) · TOM 44.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 43.5 at -118 (-1.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward Georgia).

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

BetUS still has Georgia -13.0 while Pinnacle is at Georgia by 14.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.0-425
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-9.0-307
Massey-11.0-381
Market (19 books)-13.5-526
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.545.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOklahoma Sooners +13.5-103-101-0.6%
MoneylineOklahoma Sooners ML+456+440priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 44.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Michigan -5.5
should be Michigan -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →
Market
Michigan by 5.5TOM, -109
The Four
SP+
a pick'em
FPI
Michigan by 5
Sagarin
Michigan by 6.5
Massey
Michigan by 2.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 5opened Michigan by 5.5now Michigan by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
39.40.9 pts over the market
Massey
40.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
40.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.1opened 38now 38.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
TOM-5.5 -10938.5 -110-220+180
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢38.5 -107 50¢-218 67¢+181 34¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10438.5 -103-218+184
All 21 books
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
TOM-5.5 -10938.5 -110-220+180
Kalshi-5.5 -107 50¢38.5 -107 50¢-218 67¢+181 34¢
Bally Bet-5.5 -11238.5 -110-215+175
BetAnything-5.5 -11038.5 -110-220+180
BetMGM-5.5 -11238.5 -108-220+180
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10938.5 -110-220+186
betPARX-5.5 -11238.5 -110-215+175
BetRivers-5.5 -11338.5 -112-220+175
BetUS-5.5 -11038.5 -110-220+185
Bovada-5.5 -10538 -115-220+180
Courtside—58.5 -1751-213+184
DraftKings-5.5 -11038.5 -108-218+180
Fanatics-5 -11038.5 -110-220+180
FanDuel-5.5 -10838.5 -110-210+172
Fliff-5.5 -11538.5 -115-225+175
Hard Rock Bet-5.5 -11038.5 -110-260+200
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10538.5 -108-220+186
MyBookie.ag-5 -11038.5 -110-226+181
Pinnacle-5.5 -10438.5 -103-218+184
ReBet-6 -11138.5 -114-255+200
theScore Bet-5.5 -11038.5 -105-200+170

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +5.5 · -111 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · TOM or Kalshi +5.5 at -111 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -112 (-1.8%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (-2.3%) · BetMGM +5.5 at -118 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · +180 (34¢) at Kalshi
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Iowa to win): Kalshi, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +181 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +172 (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 38.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 38.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+PK+100
FPI-5.0-186
Sagarin-6.5-220
Massey-2.5-120
Market (19 books)-5.5-211
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.540.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +5.5-111-104-1.6%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML+180+185-0.6%
TotalOver 38.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa State
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
Utah -8
should be Utah -8 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 8, the Nasty Number says Utah by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Utah than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Utah by 8TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Utah by 9
FPI
Utah by 10
Sagarin
Utah by 3.5
Massey
Utah by 5.5
Nasty Number
Utah by 80.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 8opened Utah by 11now Utah by 8SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.82.2 pts under the market
Massey
49.91.9 pts over the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
47.10.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.1opened 49now 48SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLUtah ML
TOM+8 -11548 -105+260-335
Pinnacle+8 -11148 +100+272-339
All 19 books
Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLUtah ML
TOM+8 -11548 -105+260-335
Bally Bet+8 -11348 -109+260-345
BetAnything+7.5 -11547.5 -110+260-330
BetMGM+8 -11047.5 -110+270-325
BetOnline.ag+8 -11548 -105+270-335
betPARX+8 -11348 -109+260-345
BetRivers+8 -11448 -110+260-345
BetUS+7.5 -11047.5 -110+272-335
Bovada+7.5 -11047.5 -110+270-340
Courtside—60.5 -548+267-316
DraftKings+7.5 -11247.5 -110+260-325
Fanatics+7.5 -11047.5 -110+270-340
FanDuel+8.5 -11547.5 -114+260-330
Fliff+7.5 -11547.5 -120+260-350
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -10547.5 -110+260-350
MyBookie.ag+8 -11047.5 -110+265-350
Pinnacle+8 -11148 +100+272-339
ReBet+8 -11447.5 -116+265-350
theScore Bet+8.5 -11547.5 -115+260-320

Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah -8.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Utah): DraftKings -7.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · TOM -8 at -105 (-0.7%) · Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · BetMGM -8 at -108 (-1.4%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -105 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Utah to win · -335 at TOM
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Utah to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -325 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -330 (-2.1%) · TOM -335 (-2.3%) · Fanatics -340 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-2.3%) · TOM 48 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 61°F, 46% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +12.0, now +8.0 (the market moved 4.2 toward Iowa State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline +272 here against +309 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.0+307
FPI+10.0+332
Sagarin+3.5+161
Massey+5.5+195
Market (18 books)+8.0+272
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah Utes -8.0-105-102-0.7%
MoneylineUtah Utes ML-335-295-2.3%
TotalUnder 48.0-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: moneyline +272 here against +309 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico State
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
New Mexico -11.5
should be New Mexico -12 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 11.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 12. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico by 11.5TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
New Mexico by 18.5
FPI
New Mexico by 15.5
Sagarin
New Mexico by 11
Massey
New Mexico by 11
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 120.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 12opened New Mexico by 13.5now New Mexico by 11.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.60.9 pts under the market
Massey
52.74.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.11.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.1opened 50now 48.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLNew Mexico ML
TOM+11.5 -11348.5 -105+330-460
Pinnacle+10.5 -10248.5 -107+362-479
All 19 books
New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLNew Mexico ML
TOM+11.5 -11348.5 -105+330-460
Bally Bet+11.5 -11048.5 -110+400-590
BetAnything+11.5 -11548.5 -110+350-460
BetMGM+11 -10848.5 -108+360-475
BetOnline.ag+11.5 -11348.5 -105+358-460
betPARX+11.5 -11048.5 -110+400-590
BetRivers+11.5 -11048.5 -110+400-590
BetUS+11.5 -11048.5 -105+360-460
Bovada+11 -11048.5 -110+355-490
Courtside—55.5 -310+360-440
DraftKings+11.5 -11048.5 -108+350-455
FanDuel+11.5 -11048.5 -115+365-490
Fliff+11.5 -11548.5 -115+360-500
Hard Rock Bet+11.5 -11048.5 -110+375-500
LowVig.ag+11.5 -10948.5 -103+358-460
MyBookie.ag+11.5 -11048.5 -110+370-526
Pinnacle+10.5 -10248.5 -107+362-479
ReBet+12 -11448.5 -111+370-526
theScore Bet+11.5 -11048.5 -105+360-500

Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -11.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (New Mexico): BetMGM -11 at -110 (-0.5%) · TOM -11.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -11.5 at -110 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
New Mexico to win · -460 at DraftKings
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): DraftKings or TOM -455 (-1.5%) · BetMGM -475 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -490 (-2.6%).
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -105 (0.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -115 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State).

TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +345 here against +440 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+772
FPI+15.5+551
Sagarin+11.0+378
Massey+11.0+376
Market (18 books)+11.5+345
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.550.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos -11.5-107-104-0.8%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML-460-412priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus; moneyline +345 here against +440 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia Southern
CFB tomorrow 3:00pm
Houston -17
should be Houston -17 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 17.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Georgia Southern →
Market
Houston by 17TOM, +100
The Four
SP+
Houston by 16.5
FPI
Houston by 16.5
Sagarin
Houston by 16
Massey
Houston by 14.5
Nasty Number
Houston by 170.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Houston by 17opened Houston by 19now Houston by 17SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.80.7 pts under the market
Massey
54.12.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
551.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55opened 55now 56.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
TOM+17 +10056.5 -108——
Kalshi+17.5 -112 51¢56.5+685 12¢-967 90¢
Pinnacle+17 -10456.5 -106+621-960
All 21 books
Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
TOM+17 +10056.5 -108——
Kalshi+17.5 -112 51¢56.5+685 12¢-967 90¢
Bally Bet+17.5 -10656 -113+600-1000
BetAnything+17 -11057 -110+650-1000
BetMGM+17.5 -10856.5 -110+700-1000
BetOnline.ag+17 +10056.5 -108+661-1000
betPARX+17.5 -10656 -113+600-1000
BetRivers+17.5 -11056.5 -109+600-1115
BetUS+17 -11056.5 -110+650-1000
Bovada+17 -10556.5 -110+625-1000
Courtside—77.5 -1652+652-898
DraftKings+17.5 -11256.5 -110+625-950
Fanatics+17.5 -11056.5 -110+650-950
FanDuel+17.5 -10456.5 -110+680-1100
Fliff+17.5 -12056.5 -120+640-1080
Hard Rock Bet+17.5 -10556.5 -110+575-900
LowVig.ag+17 +10456.5 -106+661-1000
MyBookie.ag+17.5 -11056.5 -110+613-1009
Pinnacle+17 -10456.5 -106+621-960
ReBet+18 -11456.5 -114+570-901
theScore Bet+17.5 -11056.5 -110+600-1000

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +17.0 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia Southern): FanDuel +17.5 at -104 (1.1%) · TOM +17 at +100 (0.3%) · BetMGM +17.5 at -108 (0.2%) · Fanatics +17.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +17.5 at -112 (-0.6%).
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +700 at BetMGM
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia Southern to win): BetMGM +700 (1.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +685 (0.8%) · Fanatics +650 (0.2%) · DraftKings +625 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 56.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics 56.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi or TOM 56.5 at -112 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +17.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Georgia Southern).

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $150 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 1730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++16.5+589
FPI+16.5+591
Sagarin+16.0+570
Massey+14.5+534
Market (19 books)+17.0+851
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.555.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +17.0+100-101+0.3%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+700+638priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.5-112-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling Green
CFB tomorrow 4:00pm
Over 48
should be 49.7 · getting 1.7 pts · was 53.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Bowling Green →
Market
South Florida by 17.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
South Florida by 21.5
FPI
South Florida by 22
Sagarin
South Florida by 14.5
Massey
South Florida by 18
Nasty Number
South Florida by 191.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 19opened South Florida by 16.5now South Florida by 17.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.43.4 pts over the market
Massey
53.65.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.54.5 pts over the market
Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 51now 48SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
TOM+17.5 -10848 -110——
Kalshi+17.5 -107 50¢48.5 -112 51¢+756 11¢-967 90¢
Pinnacle+18.5 -11548.5 -114+635-990
All 20 books
Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
TOM+17.5 -10848 -110——
Kalshi+17.5 -107 50¢48.5 -112 51¢+756 11¢-967 90¢
Bally Bet+17.5 -11348.5 -118+700-1250
BetAnything+17.5 -11048.5 -110+700-1100
BetMGM+17.5 -10848.5 -108+650-900
BetOnline.ag+17.5 -10848 -110+661-1000
betPARX+17.5 -11348.5 -118+700-1250
BetRivers+17.5 -11348.5 -118+700-1250
BetUS+17.5 -11048.5 -110+630-950
Bovada+18 -11049 -110+625-1000
Courtside—69.5 -2509+679-943
DraftKings+17.5 -11048.5 -112+650-1000
FanDuel+17.5 -11048.5 -110+640-1000
Fliff+17.5 -11548.5 -120+645-1100
Hard Rock Bet+17.5 -10548.5 -110+650-1000
LowVig.ag+17.5 -10448 -108+661-1000
MyBookie.ag+17.5 -11048.5 -110+610-1000
Pinnacle+18.5 -11548.5 -114+635-990
ReBet+18 -11449 -111+640-1099
theScore Bet+17.5 -10548.5 -110+600-1000

Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -17.5 · -112 (51¢) at Kalshi
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Florida): FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM -17.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi or TOM -17.5 at -112 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
South Florida to win · -1000 at FanDuel
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Florida to win): BetMGM -900 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 90¢ (-1.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -1000 (-1.6%).
Off the band
the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 54. That's 4.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -110 (2.1%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (1.2%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (0.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +18.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 1930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++21.5+1187
FPI+22.0+1194
Sagarin+14.5+528
Massey+18.0+740
Market (18 books)+17.5+884
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.052.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -17.5-112-116+0.8%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML-1000-833priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 5.0.

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +18.1 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.5 consensus.

The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan State
CFB tomorrow 4:00pm
Nebraska -5.5
should be Nebraska -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Michigan State →
Market
Nebraska by 5.5TOM, -102
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 10
FPI
Nebraska by 7.5
Sagarin
Nebraska by 0.5
Massey
Nebraska by 3
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 6.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 6.5opened Nebraska by 6.5now Nebraska by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 6.5 to Nebraska by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.22.7 pts over the market
Massey
47.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.30.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 47.5now 48.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLNebraska ML
TOM+5.5 -10248.5 -115+175-225
Pinnacle+5.5 -10249 -108+188-223
All 19 books
Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLNebraska ML
TOM+5.5 -10248.5 -115+175-225
Bally Bet+6 -11248.5 -109+175-225
BetAnything+6 -11549 -110+180-220
BetMGM+6 -11049.5 -110+185-225
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -10248.5 -115+189-225
betPARX+6 -11248.5 -109+175-225
BetRivers+6 -11348.5 -110+175-225
BetUS+5.5 -10548.5 -115+190-225
Bovada+6 -11549 -110+185-225
Courtside—70.5 -1635+189-220
DraftKings+5.5 -10248.5 -112+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10248.5 -112+188-230
Fliff+5.5 -11048.5 -120+180-230
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11048.5 -115+190-250
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10648.5 -114+189-225
MyBookie.ag+6 -11049 -110+198-250
Pinnacle+5.5 -10249 -108+188-223
ReBet+6.5 -11449 -114+198-250
theScore Bet+6.5 -11548.5 -115+195-230

Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska -6.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): BetMGM -6 at -108 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or TOM -5.5 at -118 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -120 (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
Nebraska to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -225 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -230 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or FanDuel 48.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · TOM 48.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-3.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has Michigan State +6.5 while Pinnacle is at Nebraska by 5.5.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+338
FPI+7.5+282
Sagarin+0.5+102
Massey+3.0+131
Market (18 books)+5.5+183
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.549.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNebraska Cornhuskers -6.0-108-103-1.2%
MoneylineNebraska Cornhuskers ML-225-209-1.6%
TotalOver 48.5-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.6.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.9 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +209 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia
CFB tomorrow 5:00pm
Virginia -19.5
should be Virginia -20 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 19.5.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 19.5TOM, -114
The Four
SP+
Virginia by 21
FPI
Virginia by 15.5
Sagarin
Virginia by 22
Massey
Virginia by 23
Nasty Number
Virginia by 200.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 20opened Virginia by 20.5now Virginia by 19.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.1on the market
Massey
52.80.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off
Nasty Number
51.40.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.4opened 54.5now 52SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-19.5 -11452 -105——
Kalshi—53.5 +101 48¢-1236 92¢—
Pinnacle-20 -10552.5 -107-1284+766
All 19 books
Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-19.5 -11452 -105——
Kalshi—53.5 +101 48¢-1236 92¢—
Bally Bet-19.5 -11252.5 -110-1430+800
BetAnything-20.5 -10552.5 -110-1700+950
BetMGM-19.5 -11052.5 -105-1200+850
BetOnline.ag-19.5 -11452 -105-1400+836
betPARX-19.5 -11252.5 -110-1430+800
BetRivers-19.5 -11352.5 -112-1667+800
BetUS-20.5 -10552 -105-1400+825
Bovada-20 -11052.5 -110-1400+750
Courtside—61.5 -528-1339+897
DraftKings-19.5 -11552.5 -108-1450+850
FanDuel-19.5 -11052.5 -110-1400+800
Fliff-19.5 -12052.5 -115-1595+815
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -10552.5 -110-1200+750
LowVig.ag-19.5 -11052 -103-1400+836
MyBookie.ag-19.5 -11052.5 -110-1699+852
Pinnacle-20 -10552.5 -107-1284+766
ReBet-20.5 -11152.5 -114-1299+710

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -19.5 · -114 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Virginia): FanDuel or BetMGM -19.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · TOM -19.5 at -114 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -115 (-2.3%).
Blowout line
Virginia to win · -1200 at BetMGM
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Virginia to win): BetMGM -1200 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 92¢ (-2.4%) · FanDuel -1400 (-3.3%) · DraftKings -1450 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (-2.1%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -108 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 48¢ (-3.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-3.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $358 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.9 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-21.0-998
FPI-15.5-555
Sagarin-22.0-1204
Massey-23.0-1304
Market (17 books)-19.5-1156
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVirginia Cavaliers -19.5-114-105-2.0%
MoneylineVirginia Cavaliers ML-1200-907priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.0-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.9 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas State
CFB tomorrow 5:00pm
Incarnate Word +30.5
should be Incarnate Word +27.5 · getting 3 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 30.5.

The spread

← more Incarnate Word than the bookmore Texas State →
Market
Texas State by 30.5TOM, -120
The Four
Sagarin
Texas State by 20
Nasty Number
Texas State by 27.53.1 pts off the market
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLIncarnate Word ML
TOM-30.5 -12064.5 +105——
Pinnacle-30.5 -11965 -109——
All 14 books
Texas State spreadTotal (over)Texas State MLIncarnate Word ML
TOM-30.5 -12064.5 +105——
Bally Bet-32 -11465.5 +106——
BetOnline.ag-30.5 -12064.5 -105——
betPARX-32 -11465.5 +106——
BetRivers-32 -11465.5 +106——
Courtside-30.5 -11364.5 -113—+1999
DraftKings-30.5 -11564.5 -115—+1800
FanDuel-30.5 -11565.5 -104—+1600
Fliff-30.5 -12064.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-30.5 -11065.5 -105—+1400
LowVig.ag-30.5 -12064.5 -105——
Pinnacle-30.5 -11965 -109——
ReBet-30.5 -11465.5 -109——
theScore Bet-30.5 -11564.5 -110—+1800

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Incarnate Word +30.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Incarnate Word): TOM +30.5 at +100 (8.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +30.5 at -105 (6.8%).
Blowout line
Incarnate Word to win · +1800 at DraftKings
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Incarnate Word to win): DraftKings +1800 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.7%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.

The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 64.5 here against 65.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 27.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Incarnate Word
FPIdoesn't rate Incarnate Word
Sagarin-20.0-878
Masseyrates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales
Market (13 books)-30.5-3795
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points64.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIncarnate Word Cardinals +30.5+100-138+8.1%
MoneylineIncarnate Word Cardinals ML+1800+2282priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved up 4.5.

TOM: total 64.5 here against 65.0 consensus.

The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami
CFB tomorrow 5:30pm
Under 53.5
should be 50.8 · getting 2.7 pts · was 54
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →
Market
Miami by 41
The Four
SP+
Miami by 40.5
FPI
Miami by 42
Sagarin
Miami by 40.5
Massey
Miami by 37
Nasty Number
Miami by 410.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 41opened Miami by 40.5now Miami by 41SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
42.311.2 pts under the market
Massey
46.76.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.59 pts under the market
Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.5opened 52.5now 53SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi—54.5 -103 49¢——
Pinnacle-41 -11553 -119——
All 19 books
Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi—54.5 -103 49¢——
Bally Bet-41.5 -11454.5 -109——
BetAnything-41.5 -11553.5 -110——
BetMGM-41.5 -11253.5 -120——
BetOnline.ag-41.5 -11554 -110——
betPARX-41.5 -11454.5 -109——
BetRivers-41.5 -11554.5 -110——
BetUS-42 -11054 -110——
Bovada-41 -12053.5 -115——
Courtside—73.5 -1347——
DraftKings-41.5 -11254.5 -112——
Fanatics-41.5 -11554 -110——
FanDuel-41.5 -11453.5 -115——
Fliff-41.5 -12054.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-41.5 -12053.5 -115——
LowVig.ag-41.5 -11154 -108——
Pinnacle-41 -11553 -119——
ReBet-42 -11454 -114——
theScore Bet-41.5 -11554.5 -115——

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +41.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Michigan): Fanatics or BetMGM +41.5 at -105 (0.1%) · FanDuel +41.5 at -106 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +41.5 at -108 (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
the Under 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 42 and Massey projects 47. That's 9.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 54.5 at -108 (7.2%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (5.7%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (5.4%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (5.4%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (4.3%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 24% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan).

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 4130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-40.5—
FPI-42.0—
Sagarin-40.5—
Massey-37.0—
Market (18 books)-41.0—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.544.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas +41.5-105-106+0.1%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-131shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.6.

The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Alabama -12.5
should be Alabama -12.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 12.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 8.5
FPI
Alabama by 12.5
Sagarin
Alabama by 12
Massey
Alabama by 14.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 12.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 12.5opened Alabama by 12now Alabama by 12.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.36.7 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 53.5now 54SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11054 -110-515+365
Kalshi-13.5 +101 48¢54.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -10954 -109-523+388
All 21 books
Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11054 -110-515+365
Kalshi-13.5 +101 48¢54.5 -107 50¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet-12.5 -10954 -108-590+400
BetAnything-12.5 -11054.5 -110-525+400
BetMGM-12 -11854.5 -105-525+400
BetOnline.ag-12.5 -11054 -110-515+393
betPARX-12.5 -10954 -108-590+400
BetRivers-12.5 -11054 -109-625+400
BetUS-12.5 -11054.5 -110-485+380
Bovada-12.5 -11054 -110-525+375
Courtside—67.5 -651-501+402
DraftKings-12.5 -11054.5 -108-520+390
Fanatics-12.5 -11054 -110-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11054.5 -106-530+390
Fliff-12.5 -11554.5 -115-545+385
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11554.5 -110-550+375
LowVig.ag-12.5 -10654 -108-515+393
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11054 -110-526+380
Pinnacle-12.5 -10954 -109-523+388
ReBet-13 -11454.5 -111-526+380
theScore Bet-12.5 -11054.5 -105-600+400

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +12.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +12.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 53¢ (-3.3%) · BetMGM +12 at -112 (-3.3%).
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · +400 at BetMGM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): BetMGM or Kalshi +400 (-0.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics +390 (-1.0%) · TOM +365 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi or DraftKings 54.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (-0.9%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -12.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Alabama).

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-12.0-404
Massey-14.5-506
Market (19 books)-12.5-493
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks +12.5-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML+400+415priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 4.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Arkansas State -6.5
should be Arkansas State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 6.5
The Four
SP+
Arkansas State by 5
FPI
Arkansas State by 3
Sagarin
Arkansas State by 5.5
Massey
Arkansas State by 6.5
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas State by 6opened Arkansas State by 4now Arkansas State by 6.5SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 4 to Arkansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.93.3 pts over the market
Massey
51.31.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.61 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.6opened 53.5now 52.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kennesaw State +6.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +6.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -112 (-2.1%) · BetMGM +6 at -108 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · +200 at BetMGM
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): BetMGM +200 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +195 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -115 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State).

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.0-188
FPI-3.0-138
Sagarin-5.5-196
Massey-6.5-225
Market (18 books)-6.5-226
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.553.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +6.5-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML+200+207-0.8%
TotalOver 52.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western Kentucky
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Mercyhurst +40.5
should be Mercyhurst +34.5 · getting 6 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 40.5.

The spread

← more Mercyhurst than the bookmore Western Kentucky →
Market
Western Kentucky by 40.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Western Kentucky by 25
Nasty Number
Western Kentucky by 34.56.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Kentucky by 34.5opened Western Kentucky by 40.5now Western Kentucky by 40.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Western Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Western Kentucky MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-40.5 -11058.5 +100——
Kalshi—57.5 -103 49¢——
Pinnacle-40.5 -11157.5 -110——
All 15 books
Western Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Western Kentucky MLMercyhurst ML
TOM-40.5 -11058.5 +100——
Kalshi—57.5 -103 49¢——
Bally Bet-41.5 -11557.5 -109——
BetOnline.ag-40.5 -11558.5 -110——
betPARX-41.5 -11557.5 -109——
BetRivers-41.5 -11557.5 -109——
Courtside-40.5 -10858.5 -103——
DraftKings-40.5 -11058.5 -105——
FanDuel-40.5 -11057.5 -115——
Fliff-40.5 -11557.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-40.5 -11058.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-40.5 -11158.5 +102——
Pinnacle-40.5 -11157.5 -110——
ReBet-40.5 -114———
theScore Bet-39.5 -11057.5 -120——

Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mercyhurst +40.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 66 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Mercyhurst): FanDuel, DraftKings or TOM +40.5 at -110 (14.0%).
Blowout line
Mercyhurst to win · +4086
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Mercyhurst to win): Kalshi 2¢ (-0.7%) · FanDuel +3500 (-1.4%).
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -37.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Western Kentucky).

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Kentucky by 34.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Mercyhurst
FPIdoesn't rate Mercyhurst
Sagarin-25.0-1786
Masseyrates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales
Market (13 books)-40.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMercyhurst Lakers +40.5-110-198+14.0%
MoneylineMercyhurst Lakers ML+4086+7074priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.2.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 57.7 consensus.

The line is -40.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane
CFB tomorrow 6:00pm
Southern Miss +18
should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 18TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Tulane by 15.5
FPI
Tulane by 15
Sagarin
Tulane by 20.5
Massey
Tulane by 20
Nasty Number
Tulane by 17.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulane by 17.5opened Tulane by 19now Tulane by 18SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.20.7 pts over the market
Massey
493.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.11.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.1opened 54now 52.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-18 -11052.5 -110——
Kalshi-17.5 -116 52¢52.5 -112 51¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Pinnacle-18 -10452.5 -110-1087+680
All 20 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-18 -11052.5 -110——
Kalshi-17.5 -116 52¢52.5 -112 51¢-967 90¢+756 11¢
Bally Bet-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetAnything-18 -11052.5 -110-1150+725
BetMGM-18 -11052.5 -110-1100+750
BetOnline.ag-18 -11052.5 -110-1100+709
betPARX-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetRivers-18 -11052.5 -109-1667+800
BetUS-18 -11052.5 -110-1100+700
Bovada-17.5 -11052.5 -110-1100+650
Courtside—59.5 -243-1032+733
DraftKings-17.5 -11552.5 -108-1100+700
FanDuel-18.5 -11252.5 -110-1250+740
Fliff-18.5 -11052.5 -115-1290+715
Hard Rock Bet-18.5 -11052.5 -110-1000+650
LowVig.ag-18 -10652.5 -108-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-18 -11052.5 -110-1099+630
Pinnacle-18 -10452.5 -110-1087+680
ReBet-18.5 -11452.5 -114-1099+630
theScore Bet-18.5 -11052.5 -110-1200+700

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +18.5 · -108 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel +18.5 at -108 (1.2%) · BetMGM +18 at -108 (-0.0%) · Kalshi +17.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · TOM +18 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings +17.5 at -105 (-0.6%).
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +709 at DraftKings
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): Kalshi or BetMGM +756 (1.1%) · FanDuel +740 (0.9%) · DraftKings +700 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi or BetMGM 52.5 at -107 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -112 (-1.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 83°F.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.5-566
FPI-15.0-546
Sagarin-20.5-918
Massey-20.0-887
Market (18 books)-18.0-981
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.551.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.5-108-114+1.2%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+709+683priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
NC State -14
should be NC State -14 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 14, the Nasty Number says NC State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →
Market
NC State by 14TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
NC State by 13.5
FPI
NC State by 9
Sagarin
NC State by 20.5
Massey
NC State by 16
Nasty Number
NC State by 140.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number NC State by 14opened NC State by 14now NC State by 14SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.12.1 pts over the market
Massey
56.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.91.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.9opened 55now 55SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-14 -10855 -115-600+430
Pinnacle-14 -10655 -114-602+434
All 18 books
NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-14 -10855 -115-600+430
Bally Bet-14 -11255 -112-670+450
BetAnything-14 -11055.5 -110-650+450
BetMGM-14 -10855.5 -108-600+450
BetOnline.ag-14 -10855 -115-600+446
betPARX-14 -11255 -112-670+450
BetRivers-14 -11355 -113-670+450
BetUS-14 -11055.5 -110-600+450
Bovada-14 -11055.5 -110-625+430
Courtside—71.5 -996-576+455
DraftKings-14 -11055.5 -105-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -12255.5 -110-670+470
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11055.5 -110-650+450
LowVig.ag-14 -10455 -114-600+446
MyBookie.ag-14 -11055.5 -110-649+440
Pinnacle-14 -10655 -114-602+434
ReBet-14.5 -11155.5 -111-649+440
theScore Bet-13.5 -11555.5 -110-750+475

Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

App State +14.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (App State): FanDuel +13.5 at +100 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +14 at -110 (-1.8%) · TOM +14 at -112 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
App State to win · +470 at FanDuel
We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (App State to win): FanDuel +470 (-0.0%) · BetMGM +450 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +440 (-1.0%) · TOM +430 (-1.3%).
Off the band
the Over 55.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · TOM 55 at -115 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-1.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward NC State). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onNC State by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-443
FPI-9.0-310
Sagarin-20.5-950
Massey-16.0-575
Market (17 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.056.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAppalachian State Mountaineers +14.0-112-103-2.2%
MoneylineAppalachian State Mountaineers ML+470+470priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-115-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
Arizona -10
should be Arizona -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Arizona by 10TOM, +100
The Four
SP+
Arizona by 13
FPI
Arizona by 10.5
Sagarin
Arizona by 7
Massey
Arizona by 5
Nasty Number
Arizona by 10.50.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.52.5 pts under the market
Massey
46.21.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.
Washington State spreadTotal (over)Washington State MLArizona ML
TOM+10 +10048 -104+305-415
Pinnacle+10 +10248.5 -104+346-454
All 18 books
Washington State spreadTotal (over)Washington State MLArizona ML
TOM+10 +10048 -104+305-415
Bally Bet+10.5 -11247.5 -113+310-420
BetAnything+10.5 -11048 -110+305-385
BetMGM+10.5 -11248.5 -102+320-425
BetOnline.ag+10 +10048 -104+327-415
betPARX+10.5 -11247.5 -113+310-420
BetRivers+10.5 -11347.5 -114+310-435
BetUS+10.5 -11048 -105+330-415
Bovada+10.5 -11048 -115+340-460
Courtside—61.5 -513+329-397
DraftKings+10.5 -11048.5 -105+320-410
FanDuel+10.5 -11048.5 -106+330-430
Fliff+10.5 -12048.5 -115+320-440
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11048.5 -105+350-475
LowVig.ag+10 +10448 -102+327-415
MyBookie.ag+10.5 -11048 -110+319-440
Pinnacle+10 +10248.5 -104+346-454
theScore Bet+10.5 -10548.5 +100+320-425

Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona -10.0 · -120 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arizona): BetMGM -10.5 at -108 (-2.6%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -10.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · TOM -10 at -120 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Arizona to win · -415 at DraftKings
We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 81, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arizona to win): DraftKings or TOM -410 (-2.4%) · BetMGM or FanDuel -425 (-3.0%).
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -116 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 48.5 at -114 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 48.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · TOM 48 at -116 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.0 toward Washington State).

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 10.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.0+435
FPI+10.5+370
Sagarin+7.0+231
Massey+5.0+189
Market (17 books)+10.0+319
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.045.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArizona Wildcats -10.0-120-105-3.4%
MoneylineArizona Wildcats ML-415-354priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-116-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus; moneyline +319 here against +398 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North Texas
CFB tomorrow 6:30pm
Houston Christian +39.5
should be Houston Christian +35 · getting 4.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.5.

The spread

← more Houston Christian than the bookmore North Texas →
Market
North Texas by 39.5TOM, -120
The Four
Sagarin
North Texas by 30
Nasty Number
North Texas by 354.7 pts off the market
North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLHouston Christian ML
TOM-39.5 -12059.5 -125——
Kalshi—60.5 -103 49¢——
Pinnacle-37.5 -11860 -107——
All 15 books
North Texas spreadTotal (over)North Texas MLHouston Christian ML
TOM-39.5 -12059.5 -125——
Kalshi—60.5 -103 49¢——
Bally Bet-40 -11559.5 -103——
BetOnline.ag-39.5 -12059.5 -125——
betPARX-40 -11559.5 -103——
BetRivers-40 -11559.5 -103——
Courtside-38.5 -10860.5 -108——
DraftKings-38.5 -11060.5 -110——
FanDuel-38.5 -11059.5 -114——
Fliff-39.5 -11559.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-38.5 -11059.5 -105——
LowVig.ag-39.5 -12059.5 -125——
Pinnacle-37.5 -11860 -107——
ReBet-38.5 -11059.5 -106——
theScore Bet-38.5 -11559.5 -120——

Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Houston Christian +39.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Houston Christian): TOM +39.5 at +100 (13.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +38.5 at -110 (7.8%).
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -39.5 here against -38.2 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNorth Texas by 3540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Houston Christian
FPIdoesn't rate Houston Christian
Sagarin-30.0-3415
Masseyrates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales
Market (13 books)-39.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.5—
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Baptist Huskies +39.5+100-170+13.0%

Line move: total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: spread -39.5 here against -38.2 consensus; total 59.5 here against 59.8 consensus.

The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State
CFB tomorrow 6:45pm
Mississippi State -5.5
should be Mississippi State -5.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Mississippi State by 5.5TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
Missouri by 1
FPI
Mississippi State by 6
Sagarin
Mississippi State by 6
Massey
Mississippi State by 2.5
Nasty Number
Mississippi State by 5.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Mississippi State by 5.5opened Mississippi State by 3.5now Mississippi State by 5.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Mississippi State by 3.5 to Mississippi State by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.44.1 pts under the market
Massey
57.11.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.8opened 59now 58.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -10758.5 -110-205+165
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢58.5 -112 51¢-218 67¢+189 33¢
Pinnacle-6.5 +10258 -118-225+189
All 20 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -10758.5 -110-205+165
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢58.5 -112 51¢-218 67¢+189 33¢
Bally Bet-6 -10858.5 -110-235+185
BetAnything-6 -11058.5 -110-220+180
BetMGM-5.5 -10858.5 -110-225+185
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -10758.5 -110-205+177
betPARX-6 -10858.5 -110-235+185
BetRivers-6 -10958.5 -112-235+180
BetUS-5.5 -11058.5 -110-205+175
Bovada-6 -11058.5 -110-230+190
Courtside—53.5 +152-225+194
DraftKings-6 -10858.5 -112-230+190
Fanatics-6 -11058.5 -110-220+180
FanDuel-5.5 -11858.5 -118-225+184
Fliff-5.5 -12058.5 -120-235+185
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11058.5 -110-240+185
LowVig.ag-5.5 -10358.5 -108-205+177
MyBookie.ag-6 -11058.5 -110-236+188
Pinnacle-6.5 +10258 -118-225+189
theScore Bet-6.5 -10558.5 -110-210+175

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Mississippi State -5.5 · -107 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Mississippi State): TOM -5.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (-3.0%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-3.5%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 52¢ (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Mississippi State to win · -205 at TOM
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61. Where, best first (Mississippi State to win): TOM -205 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 67¢ (-2.6%) · Fanatics -220 (-2.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -225 (-3.2%) · DraftKings -230 (-3.7%).
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 58.5 at -104 (1.5%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 58.5 at -107 (0.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 58.5 at -110 (0.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -6.0 (the market moved 4.7 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.2 consensus.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Mississippi State -5.5 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 6.5.

Full detail
We settle onMississippi State by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+103
FPI-6.0-198
Sagarin-6.0-201
Massey-2.5-120
Market (18 books)-5.5-196
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.555.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMississippi State Bulldogs -5.5-107-101-1.5%
MoneylineMississippi State Bulldogs ML-205-194-1.2%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.7 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.2 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe
CFB tomorrow 7:00pm
Florida Atlantic -11
should be Florida Atlantic -11.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 11TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Florida Atlantic by 18.5
FPI
Florida Atlantic by 10
Sagarin
Florida Atlantic by 7.5
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 7
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 11.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida Atlantic by 11.5opened Florida Atlantic by 13.5now Florida Atlantic by 11SunMonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
61.33.3 pts over the market
Massey
58.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
602 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60opened 59now 58SunMonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+11 -10558 -115+340-450
Kalshi+11.558.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -11458 -111+370-493
All 19 books
UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+11 -10558 -115+340-450
Kalshi+11.558.5 -107 50¢+373 20¢-490 82¢
Bally Bet+13 -11257.5 -115+400-625
BetAnything+11.5 -11058 -110+365-475
BetMGM+11.5 -11058.5 -105+375-475
BetOnline.ag+11 -10558 -115+350-450
betPARX+13 -11257.5 -115+400-625
BetRivers+13 -11257.5 -115+400-625
BetUS+11.5 -11058 -115+355-450
Bovada+11.5 -11058 -115+360-500
Courtside—56.5 +105+381-468
DraftKings+11.5 -10858.5 -105+370-485
FanDuel+11.5 -10657.5 -115+365-490
Fliff+11.5 -11557.5 -125+365-510
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11058.5 -105+350-475
LowVig.ag+11 -10158 -114+350-450
MyBookie.ag+12 -11058 -110+350-481
Pinnacle+12.5 -11458 -111+370-493
theScore Bet+11.5 -10557.5 -115+340-450

Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida Atlantic -11.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Florida Atlantic): BetMGM -11.5 at -110 (-2.8%) · TOM -11 at -115 (-2.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -11.5 at -112 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -11.5 at -114 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Florida Atlantic to win · -450 at TOM
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Florida Atlantic to win): TOM -450 (-2.3%) · BetMGM -475 (-3.1%) · DraftKings, Kalshi or FanDuel -485 (-3.4%).
Off the band
the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 57.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 58.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · TOM 58 at -115 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +13.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward UL Monroe).

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks +11.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +355 here against +446 consensus.

Hard Rock Bet still has Florida Atlantic -10.5 while Pinnacle is at Florida Atlantic by 12.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 11.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+781
FPI+10.0+340
Sagarin+7.5+262
Massey+7.0+258
Market (17 books)+11.0+355
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.060.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFlorida Atlantic Owls -11.0-115-102-2.9%
MoneylineFlorida Atlantic Owls ML-450-389priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 58.0-115-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread +11.0 here against +12.1 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +446 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU
CFB tomorrow 8:00pm
Missouri State +34.5
should be Missouri State +33 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 34.5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
SMU by 31.5
FPI
SMU by 28
Sagarin
SMU by 33.5
Massey
SMU by 27.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 331.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 33opened SMU by 34.5now SMU by 34.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.84.7 pts under the market
Massey
57.52 pts under the market
Nasty Number
56.23.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.2opened 59.5now 59.5SunMonTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-34.5 -10859.5 -115——
Pinnacle-34.5 -10360 -108——
All 19 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-34.5 -10859.5 -115——
Bally Bet-34.5 -11060 -108——
BetAnything-34.5 -11060 -110——
BetMGM-34 -11060.5 -108——
BetOnline.ag-34.5 -10859.5 -115——
betPARX-34.5 -11060 -108——
BetRivers-34.5 -11260 -109——
BetUS-34.5 -11059.5 -110——
Bovada-34.5 -10560 -110——
Courtside—77.5 -1433—+2889
DraftKings-34.5 -10559.5 -110—+2500
Fanatics-34.5 -11059.5 -110—+3000
FanDuel-34.5 -11060.5 -110——
Fliff-33.5 -12559.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-34.5 -11060.5 -110—+2250
LowVig.ag-34.5 -10459.5 -114——
MyBookie.ag-34.5 -11059.5 -110—+1650
Pinnacle-34.5 -10360 -108——
theScore Bet-34.5 -11059.5 -110——

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +34.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): FanDuel or Fanatics +34.5 at -110 (1.3%) · TOM +34.5 at -112 (0.9%) · BetMGM +34 at -108 (0.3%) · DraftKings +34.5 at -115 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Missouri State to win · +2889 at Fanatics
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +3500 (-1.1%) · Fanatics +3000 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +2500 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 59.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 60.5 at -110 (1.9%) · TOM 59.5 at -105 (0.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings 59.5 at -110 (-0.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 3330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-31.5-4740
FPI-28.0-2521
Sagarin-33.5—
Massey-27.5-2300
Market (18 books)-34.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.556.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri State Bears +34.5-112-116+0.9%
MoneylineMissouri State Bears ML+2889+5838priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 59.5-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 59.5 here against 59.9 consensus.

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP
CFB tomorrow 8:00pm
Oregon State -10.5
should be Oregon State -11.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 11.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
Oregon State by 10.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Oregon State by 15
FPI
Oregon State by 14
Sagarin
Oregon State by 8.5
Massey
Oregon State by 12.5
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 11.51.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.27.8 pts under the market
Massey
56.80.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.53.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.
UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLOregon State ML
TOM+10.5 -10556 -105+340-450
Pinnacle+10.5 -10255.5 -116+366-486
All 18 books
UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLOregon State ML
TOM+10.5 -10556 -105+340-450
Bally Bet+11 -10856 -109+360-480
BetAnything+11 -11056 -110+340-450
BetMGM+11 -10855.5 -110+350-450
BetOnline.ag+10.5 -10556 -105+350-450
betPARX+11 -10856 -109+360-480
BetRivers+11 -10956 -110+350-500
BetUS+11 -11056 -110+355-450
Bovada+11 -11056 -110+360-500
Courtside—66.5 -340+350-426
DraftKings+10.5 -10556.5 -105+340-440
FanDuel+10.5 -10256.5 -106+350-465
Fliff+10.5 -11055.5 -125+345-480
Hard Rock Bet+11.5 -11055.5 -115+350-475
LowVig.ag+10.5 -10156 -103+350-450
MyBookie.ag+11 -11056 -110+340-469
Pinnacle+10.5 -10255.5 -116+366-486
theScore Bet+10.5 -11055.5 -110+290-380

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon State -10.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): BetMGM -11 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or TOM -10.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -120 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Oregon State to win · -450 at BetMGM
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): DraftKings -440 (-1.5%) · BetMGM or TOM -450 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -465 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 57. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (1.1%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -115 (0.9%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · TOM 56 at -115 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened +11.0, now +10.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward UTEP).

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +355 here against +427 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++15.0+543
FPI+14.0+472
Sagarin+8.5+300
Massey+12.5+418
Market (17 books)+10.5+355
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.052.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers -10.5-115-109-1.4%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML-450-399priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-115-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UTEP Miners since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +427 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State
CFB tomorrow 9:00pm
Fresno State -13
should be Fresno State -14 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 16.5
FPI
Fresno State by 15
Sagarin
Fresno State by 14.5
Massey
Fresno State by 15.5
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 140.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 14opened Fresno State by 13now Fresno State by 13Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
39.64.9 pts under the market
Massey
440.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.8opened 44.5now 44.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLRice ML
TOM-13 -11044.5 -105-525+375
Pinnacle-13.5 -10344.5 -103-539+398
All 18 books
Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLRice ML
TOM-13 -11044.5 -105-525+375
Bally Bet-12.5 -10944.5 -107-670+440
BetAnything-13.5 -10544.5 -105-520+395
BetMGM-13 -11044.5 -105-550+425
BetOnline.ag-13 -11044.5 -105-525+400
betPARX-12.5 -10944.5 -107-670+440
BetRivers-12.5 -10944.5 -107-670+440
BetUS-13 -11044.5 -105-525+405
Bovada-13 -11044 -115-550+390
Courtside—61.5 -1103-515+413
DraftKings-13.5 -11044.5 -105-535+400
FanDuel-13.5 -10543.5 -115-650+460
Fliff-13.5 -11544.5 -110-610+420
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11044.5 -105-650+450
LowVig.ag-13 -10644.5 -103-525+400
MyBookie.ag-13.5 -11044 -110-589+409
Pinnacle-13.5 -10344.5 -103-539+398
theScore Bet-12.5 -11043.5 -110-700+450

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fresno State -13.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (0.3%) · BetMGM or TOM -13 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -110 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · -525 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): TOM -525 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -535 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -550 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -650 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 44.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 44.5 at -112 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or TOM 44.5 at -115 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-1.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.5-616
FPI-15.0-547
Sagarin-14.5-511
Massey-15.5-554
Market (17 books)-13.0-502
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.541.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs -13.0-110-109-0.1%
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML-525-473priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.5-115-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio BobcatsStonehill at Ohio
CFB tomorrow 2:30pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Stonehill than the bookmore Ohio →
Market
Ohio by 33.5TOM, -120
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Ohio by 33.5now Ohio by 33.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLStonehill ML
TOM-33.5 -12053.5 +100——
Kalshi—53.5 -107 50¢——
Pinnacle-34 -10653.5 -106——
All 15 books
Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLStonehill ML
TOM-33.5 -12053.5 +100——
Kalshi—53.5 -107 50¢——
Bally Bet-33.5 -12052.5 -108——
BetOnline.ag-33.5 -12053.5 -110——
betPARX-33.5 -12052.5 -108——
BetRivers-33.5 -12052.5 -108——
Courtside-33.5 -10653.5 -108——
DraftKings-33.5 -10853.5 -110——
FanDuel-32.5 -11053.5 -110——
Fliff-33.5 -12052.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-32.5 -11052.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-33.5 -12053.5 +102——
Pinnacle-34 -10653.5 -106——
ReBet-32.5 -11152.5 -113——
theScore Bet-33.5 -11053.5 -115——

Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened -37.5, now -33.5 (the market moved 3.8 toward Stonehill).

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Stonehill
FPIdoesn't rate Stonehill
Sagarindoesn't rate Stonehill
Masseyrates Stonehill and Ohio on different scales
Market (13 books)-33.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5—

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM matches the consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina PiratesNorth Carolina Central at East Carolina
CFB tomorrow 3:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more North Carolina Central than the bookmore East Carolina →
Market
East Carolina by 36.5TOM, -125
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened East Carolina by 36.5now East Carolina by 36.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

East Carolina spreadTotal (over)East Carolina MLNorth Carolina Central ML
TOM-36.5 -12556.5 -125——
Kalshi—56.5 -116 52¢—+3021 3¢
Pinnacle-36.5 -11456 -114——
All 13 books
East Carolina spreadTotal (over)East Carolina MLNorth Carolina Central ML
TOM-36.5 -12556.5 -125——
Kalshi—56.5 -116 52¢—+3021 3¢
Bally Bet-36.5 -11356.5 -103——
BetOnline.ag-36.5 -12556.5 -125——
betPARX-36.5 -11356.5 -103——
BetRivers-36.5 -11356.5 -104——
Courtside-36.5 -11056.5 -106——
DraftKings-36.5 -11256.5 -108——
FanDuel-35.5 -10556.5 -110—+2400
Fliff-36.5 -12055.5 -120——
Hard Rock Bet-35.5 -11056.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-36.5 -12556.5 -124——
Pinnacle-36.5 -11456 -114——

Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 75°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -32.0, now -36.5 (the market moved 4.4 toward East Carolina).

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate North Carolina Central
FPIdoesn't rate North Carolina Central
Sagarindoesn't rate North Carolina Central
Masseyrates North Carolina Central and East Carolina on different scales
Market (11 books)-36.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.5—

Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.7.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida International
CFB tomorrow 5:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Long Island University than the bookmore Florida International →
Market
Florida International by 36.5TOM, -120
The Four
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLLong Island University ML
TOM-36.5 -12052.5 -130——
Kalshi—53.5 -107 50¢—+3021 3¢
Pinnacle-35.5 -11453.5 -103——
All 15 books
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLLong Island University ML
TOM-36.5 -12052.5 -130——
Kalshi—53.5 -107 50¢—+3021 3¢
Bally Bet-36.5 -11053.5 -107——
BetOnline.ag-36.5 -12052.5 -130——
betPARX-36.5 -11053.5 -107——
BetRivers-36.5 -11053.5 -107——
Courtside-36.5 -10853.5 -113——
DraftKings-36.5 -11053.5 -115——
FanDuel-35.5 -11853.5 -115——
Fliff-35.5 -12053.5 -115——
Hard Rock Bet-35.5 -11552.5 -110——
LowVig.ag-36.5 -12052.5 -130——
Pinnacle-35.5 -11453.5 -103——
ReBet-35.5 -11652.5 -113——
theScore Bet-36.5 -10553.5 -110——

Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 26% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -36.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Florida International).

TOM: spread -36.5 here against -35.8 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Long Island University
FPIdoesn't rate Long Island University
Sagarindoesn't rate Long Island University
Masseyrates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales
Market (13 books)-36.5—
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5—

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.8.

TOM: spread -36.5 here against -35.8 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.3 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Sun Sep 27

14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at Jaguars
GameThe call
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at Jaguars
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Patriots +3
should be Patriots +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5
A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 3TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
a pick'em3 pts our side
FPI
Jaguars by 2.50.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Jaguars by 12.2 pts our side
Massey
Jaguars by 12 pts our side
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 20.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Patriots. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jaguars by 2opened Jaguars by 3now Jaguars by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM
The Four
Massey
40.45.6 pts under the market
FPI
44.51.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.53.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 44.5now 46SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
TOM-3 -10446 -112-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢46.5 -103 49¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -11945.5 -117-151+134
All 25 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLPatriots ML
TOM-3 -10446 -112-155+130
Kalshi-2.5 -126 54¢46.5 -103 49¢-161 60¢+134 41¢
Bally Bet-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetAnything-3 -10546 -110-155+135
BetMGM-3 -10246 -110-160+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -10446 -112-155+135
betPARX-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetRivers-3 -10645.5 -113-157+132
BetUS-3 +10046 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 +10046 -110-150+130
Caesars-3 -10545.5 -117-154+130
Courtside—56.5 -354-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10246.5 -105-155+130
Fanatics-2.5 -12046 -110-155+130
FanDuel-2.5 -11845.5 -115-154+130
Fliff-2.5 -13045.5 -115-170+135
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10546 -110-155+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10546 -110-155+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10546 -110-155+130
LowVig.ag-3 +10146 -109-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3 +10046 -110-158+128
Pinnacle-2.5 -11945.5 -117-151+134
Polymarket-2.5 -11746.5 +104-150+144
ReBet-3.5 +10545.5 -120-154+131
theScore Bet-2.5 -12045.5 -115-150+130

Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (2.3%) · Caesars +3 at -115 (2.1%) · TOM +3 at -116 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -118 (1.5%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Patriots to win): Kalshi 41¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +130 (1.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM or TOM 46 at -108 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 46.5 at -115 (1.9%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (1.6%) · Caesars 45.5 at -104 (1.4%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

ReBet still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Jaguars by 2.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfeloPK-100
FPI-2.5-128
Sagarin-1.0-104
Massey-1.0-105
Market (22 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots +3.0-116-125+1.9%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML+130+120+1.9%
TotalUnder 46.0-108-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.

Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at Giants
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Giants -2.5
should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Giants by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Giants by 4.51.8 pts our side
FPI
a pick'em2.6 pts against us
Sagarin
Giants by 4.52 pts our side
Massey
Giants by 4.52 pts our side
Nasty Number
Giants by 30.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Giants. FPI at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Giants by 3opened Giants by 5.5now Giants by 2.5SatSunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38TOM
The Four
Massey
43.75.7 pts over the market
FPI
39.41.4 pts over the market
Weather
-3.818 mph wind, 98% chance of rain, takes 3.8 points off
Nasty Number
37.8on the market
Under 38 is a weather call. 18 mph wind and 98% chance of rain, worth about 3.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 37.8opened 43now 38SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 43 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
TOM-2.5 -11038 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢37.5 -116 52¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10638.5 -101-135+120
All 25 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLTitans ML
TOM-2.5 -11038 -110-138+118
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢37.5 -116 52¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11538.5 -109-148+120
BetAnything-2.5 -11038 -110-140+120
BetMGM-2.5 -11538.5 -108-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11038 -110-138+118
betPARX-2.5 -11538.5 -109-148+120
BetRivers-2.5 -11538.5 -109-148+120
BetUS-2 -11538 -110-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11038 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11338 -112-139+118
Courtside—55.5 -3836-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11038.5 -108-135+114
Fanatics-2.5 -11038 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11438.5 -106-138+118
Fliff-2.5 -12038.5 -110-140+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11038.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11038.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11038.5 -110-135+115
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10538 -107-138+118
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11038 -110-142+116
Pinnacle-2.5 -10638.5 -101-135+120
Polymarket-2.5 -10438.5 +104-127+122
ReBet-2.5 -12537.5 -120-139+118
theScore Bet-2.5 -11538.5 +100-135+115

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Giants): Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (1.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -2.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars -2.5 at -113 (0.1%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -114 (-0.1%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -115 (-0.3%).
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -138 at FanDuel
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Giants to win): DraftKings -135 (1.3%) · Kalshi 56¢ (1.0%) · FanDuel, TOM or Caesars -138 (0.7%) · Fanatics -140 (0.4%) · BetMGM -145 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 38.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 3.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 37.5 at 52¢ (-1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 38 at -110 (-1.5%) · Caesars 38 at -112 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 38.5 at -106 (-2.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 38.5 at -108 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 64°F, 98% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).

TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.4 consensus.

Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onGiants by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-192
FPIPK+100
Sagarin-4.5-197
Massey-4.5-197
Market (22 books)-2.5-132
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.037.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants -2.5-110-114+0.8%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-138-142+0.7%
TotalOver 38.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.3.

TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.4 consensus.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at Steelers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Steelers +3.5
should be Steelers +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 1.52.1 pts our side
FPI
Bengals by 21.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Bengals by 1.52 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em3.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bengals by 30.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 3opened Bengals by 2.5now Bengals by 3.5SatSunMonTueWedThuFri

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Steelers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM
The Four
Massey
43.80.8 pts over the market
FPI
42.10.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off
Nasty Number
41.61.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 43.5now 43SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
TOM+3.5 -11543 -105+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11743 +103+155-177
All 25 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLBengals ML
TOM+3.5 -11543 -105+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -10942.5 -109+160-195
BetAnything+3.5 -12042.5 -110+160-185
BetMGM+3.5 -11542.5 -110+155-190
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11543 -105+161-185
betPARX+3.5 -10942.5 -109+160-195
BetRivers+3.5 -10942.5 -109+160-195
BetUS+3.5 -12043 -105+159-185
Bovada+3.5 -12042.5 -110+155-180
Caesars+3.5 -11242.5 -110+157-190
Courtside—39.5 +133+157-181
DraftKings+3.5 -11542.5 -112+154-185
Fanatics+3.5 -12042.5 -110+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -11242.5 -115+160-190
Fliff+3.5 -11542.5 -115+160-205
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11542.5 -110+160-185
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11542.5 -110+160-185
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11542.5 -110+160-185
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11643 -102+161-185
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11042.5 -110+152-188
Pinnacle+3.5 -11743 +103+155-177
Polymarket+3.5 -11742.5 -108+156-163
ReBet+3.5 -12042.5 -110+155-184
theScore Bet+3.5 -11542.5 -115+150-175

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +3.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Steelers): Caesars or FanDuel +3.5 at -112 (0.9%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, TOM or Kalshi +3.5 at -115 (0.2%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +155 at BetMGM
We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35. Where, best first (Steelers to win): FanDuel +160 (1.2%) · Caesars +157 (0.8%) · BetMGM, Fanatics, TOM or DraftKings +155 (0.5%) · Kalshi 38¢ (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-2.1%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-2.3%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 3 more.

Courtside has the total at 39.5 while Pinnacle is at 43. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+109
FPI+2.0+121
Sagarin+1.5+111
MasseyPK+100
Market (22 books)+3.5+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.041.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+155+152+0.5%
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +3.5-115-116+0.2%
TotalUnder 43.0-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at Bills
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Bills -7.5
should be Bills -7.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 7.5TOM, -101
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 8.51.1 pts our side
FPI
Bills by 91.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Bills by 5.51.9 pts against us
Massey
Bills by 91.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bills by 7.50.2 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Bills. Sagarin at Bills by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 7.5opened Bills by 7now Bills by 7.5SunTueWedThuFri

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
48.71.3 pts under the market
FPI
49.20.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.91.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 50now 50SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLChargers ML
TOM-7.5 -10150 -110-340+265
Pinnacle-7.5 +10350 -107-332+274
All 24 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLChargers ML
TOM-7.5 -10150 -110-340+265
Bally Bet-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetAnything-7 -11550 -110-340+270
BetMGM-7 -11550 -108-350+275
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -10150 -110-340+274
betPARX-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetRivers-7 -11250 -110-375+280
BetUS-7.5 +10050 -110-340+275
Bovada-7 -11550 -110-340+270
Caesars-7 -11450 -110-335+265
Courtside—70.5 -6059-331+277
DraftKings-7 -11550.5 -102-340+270
Fanatics-7 -11550 -110-350+275
FanDuel-7.5 -10250.5 -105-370+295
Fliff-7.5 -10550.5 -105-405+280
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -10550 -110-350+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7.5 -10550 -110-350+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7.5 -10550 -110-350+275
LowVig.ag-7.5 +10350 -107-340+274
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-7.5 +10350 -107-332+274
Polymarket-7.5 +10050.5-317+300
ReBet-7.5 -10549.5 -120-319+260
theScore Bet-7.5 +10050.5 -105-360+280

Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -7.5 · -101 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bills): TOM -7.5 at -101 (0.3%) · Caesars -7 at -114 (0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (0.0%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -7 at -115 (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -340 at DraftKings
We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Bills to win): Caesars -335 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or TOM -340 (-0.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-1.4%) · FanDuel -370 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · Caesars 50 at -109 (-1.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -118 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Bills, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.

BetRivers still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-348
FPI-9.0-363
Sagarin-5.5-217
Massey-9.0-362
Market (22 books)-7.5-325
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -7.5-101-102+0.3%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-340-323-0.9%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-20 18:04.

TOM matches the consensus.

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm
49ers -9
should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 9TOM, -103
The Four
nfelo
49ers by 11.52.7 pts our side
FPI
49ers by 14.55.7 pts our side
Sagarin
49ers by 133.9 pts our side
Massey
49ers by 9on the market
Nasty Number
49ers by 9.50.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 9.5opened 49ers by 9now 49ers by 9SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
45.52.5 pts under the market
FPI
50.22.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.8opened 48now 48SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9 -10348 -110-400+310
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢47.5 -116 52¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Pinnacle-8.5 +10147.5 -113-373+304
All 25 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9 -10348 -110-400+310
Kalshi-8.5 -103 49¢47.5 -116 52¢-381 78¢+313 23¢
Bally Bet-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetAnything-8.5 -11048 -110-425+325
BetMGM-8 -11848 -108-425+333
BetOnline.ag-9 -10348 -110-400+316
betPARX-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetRivers-8 -11448 -107-455+335
BetUS-9 -10548 -110-400+320
Bovada-8 -11048 -105-390+295
Caesars-8 -11547.5 -112-410+325
Courtside—69.5 -2356-426+350
DraftKings-8.5 -10847.5 -115-440+340
Fanatics-8 -11048 -110-400+310
FanDuel-8.5 -11047.5 -118-450+350
Fliff-8.5 -11047.5 -120-475+325
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -10548 -110-450+350
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-8.5 -10548 -110-450+350
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-8.5 -10548 -110-450+350
LowVig.ag-8.5 +10148 -103-400+316
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11048 -110-420+310
Pinnacle-8.5 +10147.5 -113-373+304
Polymarket-7.5 -10847.5 -113-355+335
ReBet-8.5 -11047.5 -120-410+320
theScore Bet-8 -11547.5 -120-425+320

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -9.0 · -103 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): Kalshi -8.5 at 49¢ (0.7%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (0.6%) · TOM -9 at -103 (0.2%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -108 (-0.5%) · Caesars -8 at -115 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
49ers to win · -400 at Fanatics
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (49ers to win): Kalshi 78¢ (0.0%) · Fanatics or TOM -400 (-0.8%) · Caesars -410 (-1.2%) · BetMGM -425 (-1.7%) · DraftKings -440 (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 47.5 at 49¢ (-1.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -104 (-1.8%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +7.5, only $59 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Polymarket still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-11.5-451
FPI-14.5-649
Sagarin-13.0-497
Massey-9.0-356
Market (22 books)-9.0-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -9.0-103-104+0.2%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-400-381-0.8%
TotalUnder 48.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at Colts
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Texans -1.5
should be Texans -1.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texans than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Texans by 1.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 0.5
FPI
a pick'em
Sagarin
Texans by 0.5
Massey
Colts by 0.5
Nasty Number
Texans by 1.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 1.5opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 1.5MonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
49.57 pts over the market
FPI
43.81.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.64.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.6opened 44now 42.5MonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
TOM+1.5 -10542.5 -115+104-124
Kalshi+1.5 -103 49¢42.5 -112 51¢+105 47¢-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2 -11142.5 -105+110-124
All 25 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLTexans ML
TOM+1.5 -10542.5 -115+104-124
Kalshi+1.5 -103 49¢42.5 -112 51¢+105 47¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2 -11043 -107+112-136
BetAnything+1.5 -10542.5 -110+105-125
BetMGM+1.5 -10842.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10542.5 -115+104-124
betPARX+2 -11043 -107+112-136
BetRivers+2 -11043 -107+112-136
BetUS+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
Bovada+1.5 -10542.5 -110+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -10542.5 -113+110-129
Courtside—60.5 -1191+107-122
DraftKings+1.5 -10242.5 -112+105-125
Fanatics+1.5 -10542.5 -110+105-125
FanDuel+1.5 -10542.5 -118+110-130
Fliff+1.5 -11042.5 -115+105-130
Hard Rock Bet+2 -11042.5 -115+110-130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2 -11042.5 -115+110-130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2 -11042.5 -115+110-130
LowVig.ag+1.5 +10042.5 -113+104-124
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11042.5 -110+105-129
Pinnacle+2 -11142.5 -105+110-124
Polymarket+1.5 +10442.5+113-117
ReBet+2.5 -11042.5 -120+107-126
theScore Bet+1.5 -10542.5 -115+110-130

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +1.5 · -105 at Caesars
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Colts): DraftKings +1.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · Caesars, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +1.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +110 at Caesars
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Colts to win): Caesars or FanDuel +110 (0.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-0.9%) · TOM +104 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (1.2%) · Caesars 42.5 at -113 (0.9%) · TOM 42.5 at -115 (0.4%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -118 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+101
FPIPK-100
Sagarin+0.5+102
Massey-0.5-101
Market (22 books)+1.5+109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.546.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+110+109+0.1%
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +1.5-105-101-0.9%
TotalOver 42.5-115-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.

Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at Browns
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Panthers -2.5
should be Panthers -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Panthers by 2.5TOM, -108
The Four
nfelo
Panthers by 2.5
FPI
Panthers by 3
Sagarin
Panthers by 2
Massey
Browns by 0.5
Nasty Number
Panthers by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Panthers by 2.5opened Panthers by 3now Panthers by 2.5SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42TOM
The Four
Massey
43.91.9 pts over the market
FPI
39.42.6 pts under the market
Weather
-1.414 mph wind, takes 1.4 points off
Nasty Number
40.21.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.2opened 41now 42SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
TOM+2.5 -10842 -115+120-145
Kalshi+2.5 -103 49¢42.5 -107 50¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10242 -110+126-142
All 25 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLPanthers ML
TOM+2.5 -10842 -115+120-145
Kalshi+2.5 -103 49¢42.5 -107 50¢+124 43¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10742.5 -108+125-150
BetAnything+2 -11042.5 -110+115-135
BetMGM+2.5 -10842.5 -112+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10842 -115+125-145
betPARX+2.5 -10742.5 -108+125-150
BetRivers+2.5 -10742.5 -108+125-150
BetUS+2 -10542.5 -110+120-140
Bovada+2 -11042 -115+115-135
Caesars+2.5 -10242.5 -106+122-143
Courtside—59.5 -4027+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 -10542.5 -108+124-148
Fanatics+2.5 -10542.5 -110+120-145
FanDuel+2.5 -10541.5 -115+120-142
Fliff+2.5 -10542.5 -110+125-155
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10542 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -10542 -110+125-145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -10542 -110+125-145
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10342 -113+125-145
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11042.5 -110+118-145
Pinnacle+2.5 -10242 -110+126-142
Polymarket+2.5 -10441.5 -108+122-127
ReBet+2.5 -10542.5 -110+121-142
theScore Bet+2.5 -10541.5 -110+125-145

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers -2.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Panthers): BetMGM -2.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · TOM -2.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · Caesars -2.5 at -118 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · -145 at BetMGM
We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Panthers to win): FanDuel or Caesars -142 (-2.9%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -145 (-3.4%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -148 (-3.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 42.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 39. Weather takes 1.4 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · TOM 42 at -105 (-0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (-0.4%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 42.5 at -118 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onPanthers by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.5+135
FPI+3.0+147
Sagarin+2.0+115
Massey-0.5-100
Market (22 books)+2.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.040.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers -2.5-112-101-2.7%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML-145-126-3.4%
TotalUnder 42.0-105-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at Lions
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Lions -6.5
should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Lions →
Market
Lions by 6.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 9
FPI
Lions by 8
Sagarin
Lions by 8.5
Massey
Lions by 8.5
Nasty Number
Lions by 70.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 7opened Lions by 6.5now Lions by 6.5SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.41.4 pts over the market
FPI
47.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.40.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 48now 48SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLJets ML
TOM-6.5 -11648 -115-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -112 51¢48.5 -103 49¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
Pinnacle-7 +11048 -110-291+244
All 25 books
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLJets ML
TOM-6.5 -11648 -115-300+240
Kalshi-6.5 -112 51¢48.5 -103 49¢-290 73¢+240 28¢
Bally Bet-7 -10648 -109-335+255
BetAnything-6.5 -11548 -110-300+240
BetMGM-6.5 -11248 -108-295+240
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11648 -115-300+245
betPARX-7 -10648 -109-335+255
BetRivers-7 -10648 -109-335+255
BetUS-6.5 -11548 -115-300+250
Bovada-6.5 -11048 -115-290+240
Caesars-6.5 -11748.5 -107-320+250
Courtside—69.5 -6611-297+251
DraftKings-6.5 -12048.5 -108-305+245
Fanatics-6.5 -11548 -110-300+240
FanDuel-6.5 -11548.5 -106-310+250
Fliff-6.5 -12048.5 -105-345+245
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11547.5 -115-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6.5 -11547.5 -115-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6.5 -11547.5 -115-325+250
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11248 -113-300+245
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11048 -110-300+234
Pinnacle-7 +11048 -110-291+244
Polymarket-6.5 -10848.5 +100-270+257
ReBet-6.5 -12047.5 -120-295+240
theScore Bet-6.5 -11548.5 -105-290+240

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -6.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): Kalshi or BetMGM -6.5 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -115 (0.0%) · TOM -6.5 at -116 (-0.2%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (-0.4%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -120 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -300 at Fanatics
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Lions to win): Kalshi 73¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM -295 (0.0%) · Fanatics or TOM -300 (-0.3%) · DraftKings -305 (-0.6%) · FanDuel -310 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 49¢ (-2.0%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -106 (-2.7%) · Caesars 48.5 at -107 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-366
FPI-8.0-325
Sagarin-8.5-351
Massey-8.5-337
Market (22 books)-6.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -6.5-116-115-0.2%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-300-296-0.3%
TotalOver 48.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at Dolphins
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Chiefs -10.5
should be Chiefs -10.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Dolphins →
Market
Chiefs by 10.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 9.5
FPI
Chiefs by 10.5
Sagarin
Chiefs by 9.5
Massey
Chiefs by 4.5
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 10.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 10.5opened Chiefs by 11.5now Chiefs by 10.5MonTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
Massey
43.91.6 pts under the market
FPI
45.3on the market
Nasty Number
44.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.6opened 46now 45.5MonTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
TOM+10.5 -11045.5 -105——
Kalshi+10.5 -107 50¢45.5 -107 50¢+530 15¢-660 86¢
Pinnacle+11.5 -12346 +101+458-609
All 25 books
Dolphins spreadTotal (over)Dolphins MLChiefs ML
TOM+10.5 -11045.5 -105——
Kalshi+10.5 -107 50¢45.5 -107 50¢+530 15¢-660 86¢
Bally Bet+11 -10945.5 -108+500-715
BetAnything+10.5 -11045.5 -105+500-700
BetMGM+10.5 -10845 -112+475-625
BetOnline.ag+10.5 -11045.5 -105+476-650
betPARX+11 -10945.5 -108+500-715
BetRivers+11 -10945.5 -108+500-715
BetUS+10.5 -11045 -110+530-750
Bovada+10.5 -11545.5 -110+430-625
Caesars+10.5 -10945.5 -113+475-675
Courtside—52.5 -300+471-600
DraftKings+10.5 -10845.5 -108+455-625
Fanatics+10.5 -11045.5 -105+460-650
FanDuel+10.5 -10845.5 -105+500-700
Fliff+10.5 -11045.5 -115+520-875
Hard Rock Bet+11 -11045.5 -110+475-750
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+11 -11045.5 -110+475-750
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+11 -11045.5 -110+475-750
LowVig.ag+10.5 -10545.5 -102+476-650
MyBookie.ag+10.5 -11045 -110+450-676
Pinnacle+11.5 -12346 +101+458-609
Polymarket+10.5 -10445.5 +104+525-567
ReBet+10.5 -11045.5 -109+470-649
theScore Bet+10.5 -11045.5 -105+475-750

Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -10.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Caesars -10.5 at -109 (-1.9%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -10.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or FanDuel -10.5 at -112 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -675 at Caesars
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -625 (-5.0%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -650 (-5.4%) · Caesars -675 (-5.9%) · FanDuel -700 (-6.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 45.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · BetMGM 45 at -108 (-3.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 45.5 at -115 (-3.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.1 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Chiefs -10.5 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+9.5+374
FPI+10.5+429
Sagarin+9.5+384
Massey+4.5+193
Market (22 books)+10.5+581
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.544.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -10.5-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-675-433priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at Commanders
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 12:00pm
Seahawks -7.5
should be Seahawks -7.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Seahawks by 7.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Seahawks by 9
FPI
Seahawks by 7
Sagarin
Seahawks by 7
Massey
Seahawks by 11
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 7.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 7.5opened Seahawks by 6.5now Seahawks by 7.5SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM
The Four
Massey
44.54.5 pts over the market
FPI
422 pts over the market
Weather
-2.815 mph wind, 62% chance of rain, takes 2.8 points off
Nasty Number
40.40.4 pts over the market
Under 40 is a weather call. 15 mph wind and 62% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. This is a market call, not a ratings call: it's worth something until the book takes the total down for it.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.4opened 41now 40SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
TOM+7.5 -11040 -115+280-370
Kalshi+7.5 -107 50¢39.5 -112 51¢+280 25¢-360 77¢
Pinnacle+7.5 -10440.5 +101+294-360
All 25 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLSeahawks ML
TOM+7.5 -11040 -115+280-370
Kalshi+7.5 -107 50¢39.5 -112 51¢+280 25¢-360 77¢
Bally Bet+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetAnything+7.5 -11040 -115+292-370
BetMGM+7.5 -10840 -112+300-375
BetOnline.ag+7.5 -11040 -115+296-370
betPARX+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetRivers+8 -11340.5 -108+280-375
BetUS+7.5 -11040 -115+280-350
Bovada+7.5 -11040 -110+285-370
Caesars+7.5 -11540 -113+295-390
Courtside—51.5 -586+319-383
DraftKings+7.5 -10540.5 -102+310-395
Fanatics+7.5 -10540 -110+290-375
FanDuel+7.5 -11540.5 -105+300-375
Fliff+7.5 -11040.5 -105+300-430
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -11040 -110+300-400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+7.5 -11040 -110+300-400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+7.5 -11040 -110+300-400
LowVig.ag+7.5 -10540 -113+296-370
MyBookie.ag+7.5 -11040 -110+295-391
Pinnacle+7.5 -10440.5 +101+294-360
Polymarket+7.5 +10039.5 -108+317-335
ReBet+7.5 -10940.5 -109+330-420
theScore Bet+7.5 -11040.5 +100+280-360

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.5 · -105 at Caesars
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): Caesars or FanDuel -7.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM -7.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -7.5 at -115 (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -370 at TOM
We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 72. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): Kalshi 77¢ (-2.0%) · TOM -370 (-2.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -375 (-2.7%) · Caesars -390 (-3.3%) · DraftKings -395 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Weather takes 2.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 39.5 at 51¢ (-0.0%) · DraftKings 40.5 at -102 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 40 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 40.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · BetMGM 40 at -112 (-1.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 63°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 5.2 toward Seahawks). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +340 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 7.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+9.0+266
FPI+7.0+189
Sagarin+7.0+194
Massey+11.0+351
Market (22 books)+7.5+293
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.040.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -7.5-105-102-0.8%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-370-321-2.5%
TotalOver 40.0-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +340 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:05pm
Vikings -1.5
should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Vikings by 1.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 0.5
FPI
Vikings by 0.5
Sagarin
Vikings by 0.5
Massey
Vikings by 2
Nasty Number
Vikings by 10.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 1opened Vikings by 2.5now Vikings by 1.5SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
Massey
43.71.2 pts over the market
FPI
41.21.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.4on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.4opened 43now 42.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
TOM+1.5 -11642.5 -110—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
Pinnacle+2 -11743 +103+106-119
All 25 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLVikings ML
TOM+1.5 -11642.5 -110—-120
Kalshi+1.5 -116 52¢42.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-121 53¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -10942.5 -110+104-125
BetAnything+1.5 -11542.5 -110+100-120
BetMGM+1.5 -11042.5 -112+105-125
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -11642.5 -110+100-120
betPARX+1.5 -10942.5 -110+104-125
BetRivers+1.5 -10942.5 -110+104-125
BetUSPK +10042.5 -110——
Bovada+1.5 -11542.5 -105+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -11342.5 -109+105-124
Courtside—61.5 -6611+102-118
DraftKings+1.5 -11242.5 -110+100-120
Fanatics+1.5 -11542.5 -110+105-125
FanDuel+1.5 -11042.5 -115+106-124
Fliff+1.5 -11542.5 -115+100-125
Hard Rock Bet+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+1 -10542.5 -115+105-125
LowVig.ag+1.5 -11242.5 -107+100-120
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11042.5 -110+101-123
Pinnacle+2 -11743 +103+106-119
Polymarket+1.5 -10842.5 +100+108-113
ReBet+1.5 -11042.5 -110+102-120
theScore Bet+1.5 -11542.5 -110+105-125

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +1.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): FanDuel or BetMGM +1.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · Caesars +1.5 at -113 (-2.5%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +1.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · TOM +1.5 at -116 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · +105 at Caesars
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): FanDuel +106 (-0.4%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-0.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +101 (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 50¢ (-1.3%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 42.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · BetMGM 42.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -115 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Vikings).

Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 7 more.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +113 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+0.5+102
FPI+0.5+101
Sagarin+0.5+101
Massey+2.0+120
Market (22 books)+1.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.542.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+105+108-0.7%
TotalOver 42.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +113 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at Cowboys
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm · neutral
Ravens -3
should be Ravens -3 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Cowboys →
Market
Ravens by 3TOM, +103
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 2
FPI
Ravens by 1
Sagarin
Ravens by 1.5
Massey
Ravens by 4
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 3opened Ravens by 3now Ravens by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
Massey
52.41.1 pts under the market
FPI
52.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.51 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 52now 53.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
TOM+3 +10353.5 -110+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11053 -111+162-185
All 25 books
Cowboys spreadTotal (over)Cowboys MLRavens ML
TOM+3 +10353.5 -110+155-185
Kalshi+3.5 -116 52¢53.5 -107 50¢+152 38¢-182 63¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetAnything+3 +10553.5 -110+155-180
BetMGM+3.5 -11253 -110+155-190
BetOnline.ag+3 +10353.5 -110+161-185
betPARX+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetRivers+3.5 -11753 -110+140-175
BetUS+3.5 -12053.5 -110+155-180
Bovada+3.5 -11553.5 -105+160-185
Caesars+3.5 -11453.5 -107+149-176
Courtside—56.5 -161+148-171
DraftKings+3.5 -11553.5 -108+145-175
Fanatics+3.5 -11553.5 -105+155-190
FanDuel+3.5 -11852.5 -118+152-180
Fliff+3.5 -12053.5 -110+140-180
Hard Rock Bet+3 +10053.5 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3 +10053.5 -110+150-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3 +10053.5 -110+150-180
LowVig.ag+3.5 -11053.5 -107+161-185
MyBookie.ag+3 +10053.5 -110+148-182
Pinnacle+3.5 -11053 -111+162-185
Polymarket+3.5 -11353.5 +104+163-170
ReBet+3.5 -11053.5 -110+151-179
theScore Bet+3.5 -11553.5 -110+160-190

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -3.0 · -123 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Ravens): Kalshi -3.5 at 49¢ (-4.2%) · TOM -3 at -123 (-4.2%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-4.4%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (-4.7%) · Caesars -3.5 at -106 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -175 at DraftKings
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Ravens to win): DraftKings or Caesars -175 (-3.1%) · FanDuel -180 (-3.7%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-4.1%) · TOM -185 (-4.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -190 (-5.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 53.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-1.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (-1.7%) · BetMGM 53 at -108 (-2.0%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -115 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

MyBookie.ag still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+119
FPI+1.0+107
Sagarin+1.5+113
Massey+4.0+188
Market (22 books)+3.0+162
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.552.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -3.0-123-104-4.2%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-175-153-3.1%
TotalUnder 53.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at Saints
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 3:25pm
Saints -3
should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 3TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
Saints by 3
FPI
Saints by 4.5
Sagarin
Saints by 3.5
Massey
Saints by 3.5
Nasty Number
Saints by 3.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Saints by 3.5opened Saints by 3now Saints by 3SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
40.53 pts under the market
FPI
41.22.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.82.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.8opened 43.5now 43.5SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
TOM-3 -12043.5 -115-177+147
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢43.5 -116 52¢-182 63¢+146 39¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10644 +101-176+154
All 25 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLRaiders ML
TOM-3 -12043.5 -115-177+147
Kalshi-3.5 +101 48¢43.5 -116 52¢-182 63¢+146 39¢
Bally Bet-3 -11743.5 -114-177+145
BetAnything-3 -12043.5 -110-175+151
BetMGM-3.5 -10543.5 -110-175+145
BetOnline.ag-3 -12043.5 -115-177+155
betPARX-3 -11743.5 -114-177+145
BetRivers-3 -11743.5 -114-177+145
BetUS-3 -11543.5 -115-175+150
Bovada-3 -12043.5 -110-180+155
Caesars-3 -11843.5 -112-173+147
Courtside—63.5 -1800-181+157
DraftKings-3 -12243.5 -110-185+154
Fanatics-3.5 +10043.5 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3 -12043.5 -112-180+152
Fliff-3.5 +10043.5 -115-185+145
Hard Rock Bet-3 -12044 -110-180+145
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -12044 -110-180+145
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -12044 -110-180+145
LowVig.ag-3.5 +10743.5 -113-177+155
MyBookie.ag-3 -12044 -110-167+136
Pinnacle-3.5 +10644 +101-176+154
Polymarket-3.5 +10843.5 -108-170+163
ReBet-3.5 -10943.5 -110-178+150
theScore Bet-3.5 -10543.5 -110-185+155

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -3.0 · -120 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): Caesars -3 at -118 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -3.5 at +101 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or TOM -3 at -120 (-1.0%) · DraftKings -3 at -122 (-1.4%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -105 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Saints to win · -177 at TOM
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Saints to win): Caesars -173 (-0.6%) · BetMGM -175 (-0.9%) · TOM -177 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -180 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 63¢ (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (0.1%) · TOM 43.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 43.5 at -110 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $288 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.

Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-158
FPI-4.5-191
Sagarin-3.5-177
Massey-3.5-174
Market (22 books)-3.0-169
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.540.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Orleans Saints -3.0-120-115-1.0%
MoneylineNew Orleans Saints ML-177-168-1.2%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at Broncos
NFL Sun 27 Sep, 7:20pm
Rams -2
should be Rams -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Rams by 2TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 1.5
FPI
Rams by 3
Sagarin
Rams by 2.5
Massey
Rams by 1.5
Nasty Number
Rams by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 2.5opened Rams by 2.5now Rams by 2SunTueWedThuFri

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
41.52 pts under the market
FPI
42.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
421.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42opened 45.5now 43.5SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
TOM+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -11144 -107+116-131
All 25 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLRams ML
TOM+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢43.5 -121 53¢+109 46¢-131 55¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10944 -109+112-136
BetAnything+2.5 -11044 -110+115-135
BetMGM+2 -10844 -110+110-135
BetOnline.ag+2 -10743.5 -115+113-133
betPARX+2.5 -10944 -109+112-136
BetRivers+2.5 -10944 -109+112-136
BetUS+2 -10544 -110+115-135
Bovada+2 -10544 -110+115-135
Caesars+2.5 -11443.5 -120+113-134
Courtside—53.5 -452+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11543.5 -115+110-130
Fanatics+2 -11044 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11844.5 -105+108-126
Fliff+2.5 -11544.5 -110+115-145
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -11044 -115+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -11044 -115+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -11044 -115+115-135
LowVig.ag+2 -10443.5 -113+113-133
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11044 -110+111-135
Pinnacle+2.5 -11144 -107+116-131
Polymarket+2.5 -10843.5 -113+117—
ReBet+2.5 -11043.5 -120+113-133
theScore Bet+1.5 -11543.5 -120+110-130

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -2.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-1.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -2 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -104 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -105 (-1.8%) · Caesars -2.5 at -106 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Rams to win · -126 at FanDuel
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Rams to win): FanDuel -126 (-0.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.5%) · TOM or Caesars -133 (-2.1%) · BetMGM -135 (-2.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at +100 (0.4%) · BetMGM 44 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel 44.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 49¢ (-0.4%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams ML, only $467 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+113
FPI+3.0+144
Sagarin+2.5+122
Massey+1.5+114
Market (22 books)+2.0+118
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.542.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Rams -2.0-113-104-2.2%
MoneylineLos Angeles Rams ML-126-122-0.8%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 28

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Bears, Eagles at Bears
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears
NFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pm
Bears +4.5
should be Bears +4 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +4
A Little Nasty · BearsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Bears. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 4. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Eagles by 5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 3.51.6 pts our side
FPI
Eagles by 2.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Eagles by 0.54.5 pts our side
Massey
Eagles by 1.53.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Eagles by 40.8 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Bears. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 4opened Eagles by 4.5now Eagles by 4.5SunTueWedThuFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM
The Four
Massey
44.23.2 pts over the market
FPI
43.42.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.82.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.8opened 44now 41SunTueWedThuFri

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 44 to 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+5 -11041 -110+180-230
Kalshi+4.5 -107 50¢41.5 -103 49¢+198 32¢-239 69¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10741.5 -102+191-216
All 25 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+5 -11041 -110+180-230
Kalshi+4.5 -107 50¢41.5 -103 49¢+198 32¢-239 69¢
Bally Bet+5 -11241 -112+180-225
BetAnything+5 -11041 -115+185-225
BetMGM+5 -11041.5 -110+188-225
BetOnline.ag+5 -11041 -110+192-230
betPARX+5 -11241 -112+180-225
BetRivers+5 -11241 -112+180-225
BetUS+5 -11041 -110+195-230
Bovada+4.5 -11041 -115+185-225
Caesars+4.5 -10641.5 -107+189-230
Courtside—58.5 -545+189-220
DraftKings+4.5 +10041.5 -105+185-225
Fanatics+4.5 -11041.5 -105+185-225
FanDuel+4.5 -10541.5 -108+194-235
Fliff+4.5 -11041.5 -105+190-255
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -10541.5 -110+195-250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+4.5 -10541.5 -110+195-250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+4.5 -10541.5 -110+195-250
LowVig.ag+5 -11241 -107+192-230
MyBookie.ag+5 -11041 -110+180-236
Pinnacle+4.5 -10741.5 -102+191-216
Polymarket+4.5 -10441.5 +100+203-213
ReBet+4.5 -11041.5 -110+189-226
theScore Bet+4.5 -10541.5 -105+195-230

Marked: best for Bears, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears +4.5 · +100 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings +4.5 at +100 (0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM +5 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Caesars +4.5 at -106 (-0.6%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%).
Not Nasty
Bears to win · +198 (32¢) at Kalshi
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Bears to win): Kalshi 32¢ (1.2%) · FanDuel +194 (0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +189 (0.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +185 (-0.3%) · TOM +180 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 41.5 at 49¢ (0.6%) · TOM 41 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 41.5 at -105 (0.2%) · Caesars 41.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -108 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears +4.5 · +100 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +209 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.5+104
FPI+2.5+100
Sagarin+0.5-118
Massey+1.5-108
Market (22 books)+5.0+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineChicago Bears ML+198+188+1.2%
SpreadChicago Bears +4.5+100-103+0.8%
TotalOver 41.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.8.

TOM: spread +5.0 here against +4.6 consensus; total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +209 consensus.

Thu Oct 1

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns
NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm
Browns +3
should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Steelers by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 3
FPI
Steelers by 1.5
Sagarin
Steelers by 2
Massey
Steelers by 1
Nasty Number
Steelers by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 2opened Steelers by 3now Steelers by 3WedFri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38
The Four
Massey
36.90.9 pts under the market
FPI
35.12.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
361.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 36opened 37.5now 37.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢37.5——
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
All 14 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+2.5 -116 52¢37.5——
Bally Bet+2.5 -10538 -108+117-141
BetOnline.ag+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
betPARX+2.5 -10538 -108+117-141
BetRivers+2.5 -10538 -108+117-141
BetUS+1.5 -10537.5 -110——
Caesars+2.5 -10837.5 -113+119-139
Courtside+3 -11838.5 -108+127-145
DraftKings+3 -12038.5 -110+124-148
FanDuel+2.5 -11037.5 -105+114-134
Fliff+2.5 -11037.5 -110+115-145
LowVig.ag+1.5 +10037.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11037.5 -110+114-146
ReBet+2.5 -10537.5 -110+116-143

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Browns): DraftKings +3 at -120 (0.9%) · Caesars +2.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 52¢ (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +124 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Browns to win): DraftKings +124 (0.6%) · Caesars +119 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +114 (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 38.0 · -110
Massey projects 37 and FPI projects 35. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 38.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Caesars 37.5 at -107 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 37.5 at -115 (-2.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F, 31% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $12 available; Over 37.5, only $73 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $363 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.0+151
FPI+1.5+113
Sagarin+2.0+121
Massey+1.0+105
Market (13 books)+2.5+130
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.036.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +3.0-120-125+0.9%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+124+121+0.6%
TotalUnder 38.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 2

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Pittsburgh +5.5
should be Pittsburgh +5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel
A Little Nasty · Pittsburgh, waitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →
Market
Virginia Tech by 6
The Four
SP+
Virginia Tech by 41.8 pts our side
FPI
Virginia Tech by 1.54.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 42.2 pts our side
Massey
Pittsburgh by 27.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 51 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Pittsburgh. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.82.7 pts under the market
Massey
53.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.53 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.5opened 56.5now 56.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
Kalshi———+166 36¢
All 6 books
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
Kalshi———+166 36¢
Courtside-6 -10856.5 -108-213+184
DraftKings-6 -11056.5 -110-218+180
FanDuel-5.5 -12256.5 -105-230+188
Fliff—56.5 -115-230+180
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11056.5 -110-246+195

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh +5.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): FanDuel +5.5 at +100 (0.9%) · DraftKings +6 at -110 (-0.2%).
Not Nasty
Pittsburgh to win · +182
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): FanDuel +188 (0.3%) · DraftKings +180 (-0.7%) · Kalshi 36¢ (-2.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 56.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -115 (-1.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh +5.5 · +100 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-1.5-111
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey+2.0+115
Market (5 books)-6.0-208
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.553.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers +5.5+100-104+0.9%
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML+182+186-0.5%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at Northwestern
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pm
Penn State -7
should be Penn State -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Penn State by 7
The Four
SP+
Penn State by 9
FPI
Penn State by 6.5
Sagarin
Penn State by 1.5
Nasty Number
Penn State by 6.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 6.5opened Penn State by 6.5now Penn State by 6.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.92.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.92.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.9opened 48.5now 48.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Northwestern +7.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northwestern): DraftKings +7 at -110 (-0.6%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -118 (-5.6%).
Not Nasty
Northwestern to win · +225 at DraftKings
We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 31. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 26. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): DraftKings +225 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +195 (-3.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -115 (-1.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.0+309
FPI+6.5+224
Sagarin+1.5+112
Masseyrates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (3 books)+7.0+238
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.545.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +7.0-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+225+226-0.1%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Oct 3

11 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Alabama -3.5
should be Alabama -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Alabama by 3.5
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 5.5
FPI
Alabama by 6
Sagarin
Alabama by 2.5
Massey
Alabama by 9
Nasty Number
Alabama by 40.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60
The Four
SP+ pace
55.64.6 pts under the market
Massey
61.71.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.71.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi————
All 3 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
DraftKings+3.5 -10559.5 -110+145-175
FanDuel+3.5 -10660.5 -110+146-176
Fliff—60.5 -115+140-180

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -3.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): FanDuel -3.5 at -114 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -3.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Alabama to win · -176 at DraftKings
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings or FanDuel -175 (-0.3%).
Not Nasty
the Under 60.0 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -110 (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $7 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+190
FPI+6.0+205
Sagarin+2.5+119
Massey+9.0+309
Market (3 books)+3.5+161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.058.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -3.5-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-176-173-0.4%
TotalUnder 60.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at Clemson
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Clemson +17.5
should be Clemson +16.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Miami by 17.5
The Four
SP+
Miami by 14
FPI
Miami by 15.5
Sagarin
Miami by 8
Massey
Miami by 9.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 16.50.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
43.87 pts under the market
Massey
50.8on the market
Nasty Number
47.33.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi————
All 3 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
DraftKings+17.5 -11050.5 -110+700-1100
FanDuel+17.5 -11051.5 -110+680-1100
Fliff+17.5 -11550.5 -115+685-1195

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson +17.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Clemson): DraftKings or FanDuel +17.5 at -110 (0.3%).
Blowout line
Clemson to win · +685 at FanDuel
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Clemson to win): DraftKings +700 (1.4%) · FanDuel +680 (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-1.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers ML, only $0 available; Miami Hurricanes ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 16.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++14.0+474
FPI+15.5+561
Sagarin+8.0+291
Massey+9.5+323
Market (3 books)+17.5+976
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.047.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers +17.5-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML+685+620priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 51.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at Georgia
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Vanderbilt +23.5
should be Vanderbilt +22.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 23.5
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 20.5
FPI
Georgia by 23
Sagarin
Georgia by 18
Massey
Georgia by 18
Nasty Number
Georgia by 22.50.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5
The Four
SP+ pace
580.5 pts over the market
Massey
57.6on the market
Nasty Number
57.80.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
Kalshi———+1074 8¢
All 3 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
Kalshi———+1074 8¢
DraftKings-23.5 -11057.5 -110-3200+1400
Fliff-23.5 -11557.5 -115——

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +23.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings +23.5 at -110 (-0.8%).
Blowout line
Vanderbilt to win · +1264
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): DraftKings +1400 (0.5%) · Kalshi 8¢ (-1.3%).
Off the band
the Over 57.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $473 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 22.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.5-976
FPI-23.0-1354
Sagarin-18.0-756
Massey-18.0-729
Market (2 books)-23.5-2616
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.557.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores +23.5-110-106-0.8%
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML+1264+1289priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 57.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Louisville -7.5
should be Louisville -7 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Louisville than the bookmore NC State →
Market
Louisville by 7.5
The Four
SP+
Louisville by 6
FPI
Louisville by 9.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Louisville by 5
Nasty Number
Louisville by 70.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 7opened Louisville by 7.5now Louisville by 7.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.5on the market
Massey
61.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.71.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.7opened 59.5now 59.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

NC State +7.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (NC State): DraftKings +7.5 at -110 (0.3%).
Not Nasty
NC State to win · +250 at DraftKings
We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 29. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 24. Where, best first (NC State to win): DraftKings +250 (0.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 59.5 at -110 (-1.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.0+205
FPI+9.5+320
SagarinPK+100
Massey+5.0+183
Market (1 books)+7.5+285
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.560.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack +7.5-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML+250+248+0.2%
TotalOver 59.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at Minnesota
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Michigan -7.5
should be Michigan -7.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Michigan than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Michigan by 7.5
The Four
SP+
Michigan by 7
FPI
Michigan by 12
Sagarin
Michigan by 2.5
Massey
Michigan by 9.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 7.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
SP+ pace
40.13.1 pts under the market
Massey
44.91.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.50.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi——+198 32¢-306 74¢
All 4 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi——+198 32¢-306 74¢
DraftKings+7.5 -11542.5 -110+240-298
FanDuel+7.5 -12243.5 -110+220-275
Fliff—43.5 -115+215-280

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -7.5 · +100 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan): FanDuel -7.5 at +100 (0.4%) · DraftKings -7.5 at -105 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -282
We make it 74 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 74 cents fair, a play under 69. Where, best first (Michigan to win): FanDuel -275 (0.5%) · DraftKings -298 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-3.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+243
FPI+12.0+402
Sagarin+2.5+120
Massey+9.5+312
Market (3 books)+7.5+259
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -7.5+100-102+0.4%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-282-281-0.1%
TotalUnder 43.0-110+100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Notre Dame -20.5
should be Notre Dame -20.5 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →
Market
Notre Dame by 20.5
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 20
FPI
Notre Dame by 19.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 15.5
Massey
Notre Dame by 21.5
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 20.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.82.7 pts under the market
Massey
46.92.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.92.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.
North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi————
North Carolina +20.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (North Carolina): DraftKings +20.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
Blowout line
North Carolina to win · +895 at DraftKings
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (North Carolina to win): DraftKings +900 (-0.2%).
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-0.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $1 available; Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 20.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++20.0+894
FPI+19.5+869
Sagarin+15.5+560
Massey+21.5+1106
Market (2 books)+20.5+1445
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.546.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +20.5-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+895+918priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Tennessee -8
should be Tennessee -8.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 8
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 11
FPI
Tennessee by 8
Sagarin
Tennessee by 8.5
Massey
Tennessee by 9
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 8.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 8.5opened Tennessee by 7.5now Tennessee by 7.5Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.72.8 pts under the market
Massey
57.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
56.61.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.6opened 57.5now 58.5Fri

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 57.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi————
All 3 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
DraftKings-7.5 -11558.5 -110-290+235
FanDuel-8.5 -11058.5 -110-330+260
Fliff—58.5 -115-340+255

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -8.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings -7.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -8.5 at -110 (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
Tennessee to win · -290 at DraftKings
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 70. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): DraftKings -290 (0.3%) · FanDuel -330 (-2.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (-0.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $23 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-11.0-374
FPI-8.0-285
Sagarin-8.5-301
Massey-9.0-310
Market (3 books)-8.0-290
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.556.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Volunteers -8.0-110-102-1.8%
MoneylineTennessee Volunteers ML-290-295+0.3%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at Missouri
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Missouri +3
should be Missouri +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings
A Little Nasty · Missouri, waitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Missouri →
Market
Florida by 3
The Four
SP+
Florida by 0.52.1 pts our side
FPI
Florida by 3.50.9 pts against us
Sagarin
Florida by 0.52.4 pts our side
Massey
Florida by 0.52.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida by 20.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Missouri. FPI at Florida by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 2opened Florida by 3now Florida by 3Fri

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.28.3 pts under the market
Massey
55.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
513.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi————
All 3 books
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
DraftKings+3 -10554.5 -110+130-155
FanDuel+2.5 +10054.5 -115+118-142
Fliff—54.5 -125——

Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Missouri): DraftKings +3 at -105 (3.4%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.8%).
A Little Nasty
Missouri to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Missouri to win): DraftKings +130 (2.6%) · FanDuel +118 (0.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 54.5 at -105 (1.4%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (0.3%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers ML, only $25 available; Florida Gators ML, only $184 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+3.5+163
Sagarin+0.5-100
Massey+0.5+102
Market (3 books)+3.0+136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers +3.0-105-120+3.4%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+130+117+2.6%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Iowa +14
should be Iowa +13 · getting 1 pt · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Ohio State by 14
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 10
FPI
Ohio State by 14
Sagarin
Ohio State by 5.5
Massey
Ohio State by 9
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 131.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44
The Four
SP+ pace
43.7on the market
Massey
42.81 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.30.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.
Iowa +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +14 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -122 (-0.3%).
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · +500 at DraftKings
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa to win): DraftKings or FanDuel +500 (2.2%).
Off the band
the Under 44.0 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 44.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -110 (-2.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++10.0+348
FPI+14.0+469
Sagarin+5.5+192
Massey+9.0+309
Market (3 books)+14.0+642
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.043.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +14.0-110-112+0.4%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML+500+431priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
South Carolina -6
should be South Carolina -6 · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 6
The Four
SP+
South Carolina by 8.5
FPI
South Carolina by 6
Sagarin
South Carolina by 6.5
Massey
South Carolina by 3.5
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 60 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5
The Four
SP+ pace
481.5 pts under the market
Massey
50.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.3on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
Kalshi————
South Carolina -6.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): DraftKings -6 at -110 (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): DraftKings -225 (-2.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $3 available; Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-6.5-208
Massey-3.5-163
Market (1 books)-6.0-207
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.549.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks -6.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML-225-203-2.2%
TotalUnder 49.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
BYU -5.5
should be BYU -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →
Market
BYU by 5.5
The Four
SP+
BYU by 4
FPI
BYU by 6
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
BYU by 0.5
Nasty Number
BYU by 50.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.31.2 pts under the market
Massey
53.20.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.20.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi————
TCU +5.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): DraftKings +5.5 at -110 (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
TCU to win · +164 at DraftKings
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (TCU to win): DraftKings +164 (-3.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $179 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+172
FPI+6.0+198
SagarinPK-100
Massey+0.5+102
Market (1 books)+5.5+182
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTCU Horned Frogs +5.5-110-103-1.6%
MoneylineTCU Horned Frogs ML+164+187-3.0%
TotalUnder 52.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks3-3-0.27 units · -4% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.7 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 7 posted picks
Open3calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games

Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty14-1844%-5.19 units32 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 15. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95
LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)3-350.0%-0.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty3-260.0%+0.8 usmall sample
A Little Nasty14-1843.8%-5.2 u
Not Nasty138 games——no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-25 18:06.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 72 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey7.8457
FPI9.91112
SP+10.05112
The market10.23163
Sagarin11.75153

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.1358
Massey1.001.500.0357
SP+1.000.500.0258
Sagarin1.001.500.0972

The line archive, 163 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 76 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.48 points better than the close on average over 153 games. The close misses the final by 10.13, the open by 10.35, our raw ratings number by 12.34, Pinnacle's close by 10.07. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.38, MyBookie.ag 9.87, Kalshi 10.00.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market12.0033
nfelo12.3433
Sagarin12.4533
FPI13.7918
Massey13.9316

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.0316
Massey1.000.000.0716
Sagarin1.001.500.0916
nfelo1.001.500.0116

The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.

The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

SettingGamesOur missMarket'sPicks
as it runs18010.0410.571-0
ratings 0%18010.5710.571-0
ratings 5%18010.4810.571-0
ratings 15%18010.3010.571-0
ratings 45%1809.7910.571-0
Sagarin half a vote18010.0410.571-0
Sagarin no vote18010.0410.571-0
FPI a vote and a half18010.0410.571-0
Massey a vote and a half18010.0310.571-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.42Sides: pts vs close, 17 bets, beat it 65%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +5.55.53.5+2.0same side
UNLV at AkronAkron +13.713.713.5+0.2no call
Utah at Iowa StateIowa State +12.212.210+2.2no call
Vanderbilt at AuburnUnder52.752.8-0.1no call
Virginia Tech at Boston CollegeBoston College +141414+0.0no call
Wake Forest at LouisvilleWake Forest Demon +13.513.513+0.5no call
Wisconsin at Penn StatePenn State Nittany -10.6-10.6-9.6-1.0no call
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersSan Francisco -9-9-9+0.0no call
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysDallas +333+0.0no call
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsIndianapolis +333+0.0same side
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersWashington +6.56.57-0.5same side
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsChicago +3.53.53.5+0.0no call
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 114 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.1 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+6314.619-27 (41%)13-14 (48%)
Massey6713.614-17 (45%)5-11 (31%)
The blend6813.915-23 (39%)9-11 (45%)

NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey199.97-6 (54%)2-2 (50%)
FPI179.95-1 (83%)5-0 (100%)
The blend198.96-1 (86%)3-0 (100%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

82 priced · 3 Nasty Picks · 18 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

14 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 3 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 96 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 7 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.

Since 6:10pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
  • → 4.4North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina Piratestoward East Carolina Pirateswith the public
  • → 3.8Bucknell Bison at Pittsburgh Pantherstoward Pittsburgh Pantherswith the public
  • → 3.1Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky Hilltopperstoward Western Kentucky Hilltopperswith the public
  • → 2.6Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State Seminolestoward Florida State Seminoleswith the public
  • → 1.4Lindenwood Lions at Eastern Michigan Eaglestoward Lindenwood Lionsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
9.99Points off per game at that weight
9.99The market on its own
88Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 22%, give or take 26% (one standard error, 88 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey739.17
SP+11210.05
FPI13010.44
The market19610.53
Sagarin18611.88
nfelo3312.34

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.587-9448%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 839055 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi1301.74
FanDuel3241.47
DraftKings3041.45
LowVig.ag2781.40
BetOnline.ag2861.40
BetRivers3151.37
MyBookie.ag2171.34
ReBet1011.33
Caesars2381.22
betPARX1071.20
Bally Bet1071.20
BetMGM2711.19
BetUS2181.16
Fanatics2531.13
Bovada2741.08
TOM2621.06
theScore Bet1041.03
Hard Rock Bet1061.01
Pinnacle2800.97
Courtside620.95
BetAnything930.80
Fliff740.61
Hard Rock Bet (OH)310.55
Polymarket230.52
Hard Rock Bet (FL)310.48

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 5 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated 4 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 5 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 3 days ago
  • nfelo updated 2 days ago
Log the bets you took

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Saved
Built 6:16 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 4909.