Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOhio -3-110 at TOM+5.1%Sat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 9:14am at -3 -110. Now Ohio -3 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1.5 pts-4.5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -5Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3+100 at BetMGM+3.9%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +3.5 -107. Now Pittsburgh +3 +100, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+3.5 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +2.5Temple at South FloridaSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Cincinnati at Arizona▲Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Four Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Ohio -3, Pittsburgh +3, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings and South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
UCF at Houston, UCF +12.5. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +4. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 4. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is 49ers -2.5 (Broncos at 49ers) at 7.8% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5, down 2 since the open.
Since the last build, Cincinnati at Arizona climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Ohio at Kent State, Ohio -3. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
4 more later this week
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -5.5 at -105 (5.3%) · Fanatics -5 at -110 (5.2%) · BetMGM -5.5 at -108 (4.6%) · TOM -5.5 at -110 (4.2%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -112 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -5.5 (the games that land on 5); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Baylor): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +4 at -110 (7.4%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (6.8%) · Caesars +4 at -114 (6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (3.2%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4.5 for -102 at BetMGM, or +5.5 for -110 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (San Diego State): BetMGM +4 at -102 (3.4%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (2.7%) · Caesars +4.5 at -114 (1.8%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (1.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (1.5%).Points or price: +4.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4 (the games that land on 4); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -110 at FanDuel · 1.5 points away
Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel or Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (0.5%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (0.0%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 50¢ (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5. The total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
14 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (3.1%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -112 (2.7%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (2.0%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 58.5 at -117 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 46 at -110 (3.6%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (2.7%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 46 (the games that land on 46); 53¢ costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · FanDuel +104 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.0%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -13 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.0%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-0.9%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 53.5 (the games that land on 54); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (1.7%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -105 (1.5%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 55.5 at -102 (1.0%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -115 (0.5%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Michigan State): BetMGM +10 at -102 (1.6%) · Caesars +10.5 at -112 (1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +10.5 at -115 (0.3%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -122 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.1%).Points or price: +10.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +10 (the games that land on 10); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 46.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 47 (the games that land on 47); -118 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): FanDuel +6.5 at -105 (0.8%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (0.1%) · TOM +6 at -105 (-0.4%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Kalshi +6.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.9%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Texas Tech): Fanatics -13.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM -13 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -13.5 at -107 (0.3%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -114 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -108 (1.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars 49.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 52¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.0%).Sniff of Nasty · Sunday's preview, 8 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: 49ers -2.5, Jets +3, the Under 48. Open
Sniff of Nasty
NFL: FPI and Massey and Sagarin and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin and nfelo haven't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
7.8% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel, TOM or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (7.8%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (7.2%) · Caesars or Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (6.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -105 (6.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (3.4%).4.1% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Jets): FanDuel or Fanatics +3 at -110 (4.1%) · BetMGM +3 at -112 (3.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (3.5%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (3.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -115 (3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); 55¢ costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -105 (3.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (1.6%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (1.3%) · Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (0.6%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.5%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -118 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.1.3% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +2.5 at -102 (2.0%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 49¢ (1.7%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +2.5 at -105 (1.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (0.8%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.1.0% edge on FPI and Massey. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Packers to win): FanDuel -180 (1.7%) · Caesars -182 (1.4%) · TOM -185 (1.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi -190 (0.4%) · DraftKings -198 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -114 (0.7%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (0.0%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.7%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. nfelo and Sagarin haven't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (0.4%) · DraftKings or TOM 43.5 at -115 (0.2%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM 43.5 at -120 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Moved closer since the 9:14am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:14am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Baylor at Arizona State Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.5 to +4.0. - Texas State at San Diego State Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +3.5 to +4.0; the price from -110 to -102. - Michigan State at Wisconsin Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -102. - Texas Tech at Colorado Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -105. - Akron at Central Michigan Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Akron +8.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -6.0 to +7.0; the market drifted 0.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Kentucky at South Carolina Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Kentucky +3.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.5 to +2.5; the price from -115 to +100. - Washington at USC Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Washington +10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from +9.0 to +9.5; the price from -110 to +100. - Falcons at Saints Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Saints -2.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -3.0 to -2.5; the price from +100 to -120. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 8 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL 7:15pmEagles -3.5should be Eagles -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -106 | +165 | -195 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -106 | +165 | -185 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -106 | +165 | -195 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 42 -113 | +165 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | — | 42.5 -108 | +165 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -106 | +170 | -195 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 42 -113 | +165 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -108 | 42 -113 | +165 | -200 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +167 | -195 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -107 | +168 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -106 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -108 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +166 | -198 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +165 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -103 | +170 | -195 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +165 | -197 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -106 | +165 | -185 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -104 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -197 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +104 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +159 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -118 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears +3.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +165 | +174 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -114 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Oct 1
3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +2.5should be Browns +2 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 38.5 | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 38 -115 | +127 | -143 |
All 26 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 38.5 | +124 43¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -113 | +120 | -143 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -108 | +125 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -113 | +120 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +120 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 38.5 -110 | +128 | -152 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 39.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -108 | 38.5 -104 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +103 | 38.5 -107 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 38 -115 | +127 | -143 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 38.5 +100 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 37.5 -115 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +2.5 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 74°F, 48% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $137 available; Over 38.5, only $18 available; Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $111 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns) and 5 more.
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 37.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +125 | +120 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | -102 | -104 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 38.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico StateCFB Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pmWestern Kentucky +2should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico State by 2, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico State by 1 to New Mexico State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 56 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -107 | -133 | +114 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 56 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -110 | 56 -112 | -132 | +108 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 56 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -2 -110 | 56 -112 | -132 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 56 -113 | -134 | +108 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -129 | +109 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -106 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | -126 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 56 -114 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -136 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -107 | -133 | +114 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | -139 | +109 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -103 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +182 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +110 | +112 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at TulsaCFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pmTulsa -1should be Tulsa -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 58 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 57.5 | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 58 +100 | -116 | +100 |
All 22 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 58 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | 57.5 | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1 -114 | 57.5 -109 | -121 | +100 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| BetMGM | -1 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -118 | -102 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -108 | 58 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| betPARX | -1 -114 | 57.5 -109 | -121 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -122 | -103 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1 -108 | 57.5 -115 | -118 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -114 | -115 | -104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -104 | 58 -108 | -118 | -102 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -119 | -103 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 58 +100 | -116 | +100 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | -121 | -105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | -115 | -105 |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane -1.5, only $0 available; Over 57.5, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -179 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +132 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.0 | -113 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +1.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | -102 | +102 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 2
3 gamesBest: Pittsburgh +3.0, Nasty PickPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +3should be Pittsburgh +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · +100 at BetMGM · was +6Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Pittsburgh +3.0 at +100 at BetMGM. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | — | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 54.5 -115 | -170 | +144 |
All 22 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | — | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 55 -108 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3 -120 | 54.5 -112 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 55 -108 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 55 -109 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 55 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | -164 | +139 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -110 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -112 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 54.5 -114 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +138 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 54.5 -115 | -170 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -174 | +135 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $107 available; Under 55.5, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +120 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +3.0 | +100 | -117 | +3.9% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +135 | +121 | +2.8% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at DelawareCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmOver 49.5should be 50.7 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 | +229 29¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 50 -107 | +227 | -285 |
All 21 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -131 55¢ | 49.5 | +229 29¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +225 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 50 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| Caesars | +7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +220 | -275 |
| Courtside | +7 -106 | 49.5 -108 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +225 | -280 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 49.5 -108 | +225 | -280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -101 | 49.5 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +232 | -295 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 50 -107 | +227 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 49.5 -116 | +226 | -300 |
Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.
Kalshi thin: Liberty Flames -7.5, only $16 available; Over 49.5, only $63 available; Liberty Flames ML, only $236 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +180 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +193 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +7.0 | -105 | -115 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +229 | +212 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -2.5should be Penn State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 45.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -102 | 45.5 -107 | +118 | -139 |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -107 | 45.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetAnything | +3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -104 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -107 | 45.5 -108 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -109 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | 45.5 -112 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -106 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +112 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 -108 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -102 | 45.5 -107 | +118 | -139 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 45.5 -111 | +110 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 60°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +269 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +2.5 | -104 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +120 | +121 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 3
51 gamesBest: Ohio -3.0, NastiestOhio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Ohio -5 · getting 2 pts · -110 at TOM · was -3.5NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Ohio -3.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 50.5 -114 | +136 | -160 |
All 20 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 51 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -106 | 50.5 -110 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -114 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -106 | 50.5 -114 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 50.5 -114 | +136 | -160 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -116 | +126 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F, 40% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +323 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +407 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -158 | -186 | +3.8% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pmCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsBet it · now Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars▲Nasty Pick · called at +7 -102Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.5.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 55 -109 | -291 | +232 |
All 21 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +225 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -7 -118 | 54.5 -112 | -295 | +225 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -117 | 54.5 -117 | -290 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 54.5 -116 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -275 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 55 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 55 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 55 -109 | -291 | +232 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | -310 | +216 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Cincinnati, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $142 available; Over 54.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -164 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -265 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -104 | -116 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +230 | +210 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsBet it · now South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says South Florida by 6, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | — | -250 70¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50 -112 | -242 | +198 |
All 22 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | — | -250 70¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -112 | 51.5 -108 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 50 -115 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 50.5 -103 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -114 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -120 | 50.5 -120 | -230 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -106 | 50.5 -103 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -238 | +190 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50 -112 | -242 | +198 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -119 | 50.5 -114 | -250 | +181 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 84°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls +6.5, only $21 available; Over 50.5, only $85 available; Under 50.5, only $255 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -411 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -393 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -6.0 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -240 | -258 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -105 | -123 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at MassachusettsCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMassachusetts -5.5should be Massachusetts -7 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was -4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Massachusetts -5.5: Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 5.3% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 | — | -208 66¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 | — | -208 66¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5 -112 | 48.5 -114 | -205 | +163 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| betPARX | -5 -112 | 48.5 -114 | -205 | +163 |
| BetRivers | -5 -112 | 48.5 -114 | -205 | +163 |
| BetUS | -5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -105 | 48.5 -113 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -4.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 47.5 -115 | -220 | +180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -4.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -111 | 48.5 -116 | -238 | +173 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -5.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen -5.5, only $50 available; Over 48.5, only $51 available; Under 48.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.0 | -483 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -217 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (18 books) | -5.5 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -5.5 | -105 | -130 | +5.3% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -210 | -253 | +3.9% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -4.9 consensus.
Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmBaylor +4should be Baylor +2 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +4.0: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -182 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -148 |
| Market (19 books) | -4.0 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +160 | +115 | +8.1% |
| Spread | Baylor Bears +4.0 | -110 | -149 | +7.4% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.1.
Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmSan Diego State +4should be San Diego State +3 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. San Diego State +4.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.4% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +4.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.
A play at +4.5 or better.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.0 | +175 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +4.0 | -102 | -117 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +158 | +145 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at HoustonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUCF +12.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.5: all 4 ratings 6.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 51 -112 | -492 | +357 |
All 21 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -560 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -560 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 51 -114 | -560 | +380 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -490 | +355 |
| Caesars | -12 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -106 | 51.5 +100 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -106 | 51.5 -103 | -450 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -549 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 51 -112 | -492 | +357 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | -575 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 46% chance of rain.
A play at +14.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -11.5, only $12 available; Under 51.5, only $114 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -195 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -284 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -179 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -442 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +12.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +385 | +368 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at WisconsinCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30amMichigan State +10should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGMA Little Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -381 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -204 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -372 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +10.0 | -102 | -109 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +320 | +311 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pmFresno State to winMoved our way · 1.5 ptsour data says 50 in 100 · +110A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At +110 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State to win · +110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -185 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +110 | -100 | +2.4% |
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42.
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMiami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was -14.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -564 84¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 43 -110 | -581 | +406 |
All 21 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -564 84¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 43.5 -120 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 43.5 -120 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 43.5 -120 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -103 | 42.5 -110 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -114 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -120 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 42.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 43 -110 | -581 | +406 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -699 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $51 available; Under 43.5, only $34 available; Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $266 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1623 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -575 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -723 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -388 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -575 | -506 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at LouisianaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmOver 47should be 48.4 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Louisiana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 36% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -308 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -232 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -233 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -253 | -245 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConnCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUConn +6.5should be UConn +5.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +7.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Syracuse by 6, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 5.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -105 | 51 -110 | +195 | -245 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -106 | 51 -104 | +195 | -239 |
All 21 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -105 | 51 -110 | +195 | -245 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +185 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -105 | 51 -110 | +203 | -245 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +185 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6 -105 | 51 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +205 | -239 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -114 | +205 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +185 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -101 | 51 -108 | +203 | -245 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +204 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -106 | 51 -104 | +195 | -239 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 50.5 -119 | +195 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | -100 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +193 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +118 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +205 | +196 | +1.0% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +6.5 | -105 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmTexas Tech -13.5should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics · was -16▲A Little Nasty · Texas TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas Tech. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -109 | 50 -111 | +399 | -569 |
All 21 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -109 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| betPARX | +13 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -114 | 50.5 -112 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +405 | -525 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Caesars | +13 -109 | 50.5 -107 | +400 | -530 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +423 | -530 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +12.5 -106 | 50.5 -106 | +375 | -500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +420 | -599 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -109 | 50 -111 | +399 | -569 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | +390 | -649 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas Tech -13.5 · -105 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Texas Tech.
Across the books: opened +16.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 2.6 away from Texas Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1116 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +368 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +430 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +498 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 | -105 | -108 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -500 | -483 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 56should be 57.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 54.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | — | -660 86¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 56 -109 | -631 | +432 |
All 19 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | — | -660 86¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 56.5 -105 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 56 -105 | -615 | +455 |
| betPARX | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 56 -105 | -615 | +460 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 56 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 56.5 -109 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 55.5 -115 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 56 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -101 | 56 -103 | -615 | +455 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -106 | 56 -109 | -631 | +432 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 55.5 -114 | -649 | +400 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars -13.5, only $247 available; Over 56.5, only $83 available; Under 56.5, only $293 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -570 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -798 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -565 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -14.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -625 | -542 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLVCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 54Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 52.7 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 54.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 | — | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 54 -103 | -141 | +121 |
All 21 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 | — | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -129 | +105 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -129 | +105 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -129 | +105 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 53.5 -106 | -136 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 52.5 -114 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 53.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -139 | +114 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 54 -103 | -141 | +121 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | -145 | +109 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $144 available; UNLV Rebels ML, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -110 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +143 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +2.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.8.
Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmOver 46Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 47.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Army's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +112 | -131 |
All 20 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -109 | 46.5 -109 | +106 | -130 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -128 |
| betPARX | +2 -109 | 46.5 -109 | +106 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 46.5 -109 | +106 | -130 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 46 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -120 | +105 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +108 | -128 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +112 | -131 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 46.5 -116 | +104 | -137 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for Army, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Army, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +2.5, only $208 available; Army Black Knights -2.5, only $114 available; Over 46.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +177 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -120 | -125 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Army Black Knights -1.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.6.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air ForceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 46Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 48.3 · getting 2.5 pts · was 49A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 12.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 3 to Air Force by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 45.5 -115 | -163 | +138 |
All 20 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -108 | 45.5 -117 | -167 | +135 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 46.5 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -104 | 46 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -108 | 45.5 -117 | -167 | +135 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 45.5 -117 | -167 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -106 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -108 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +104 | 46.5 -106 | -156 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 46 -108 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -180 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 45.5 -115 | -163 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -188 | +140 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 46.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -158 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen +3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | +140 | +155 | -2.5% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.1.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 58.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 60.7 · getting 2.1 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F, 32% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.9 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +175 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 65.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +5.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +180 | +188 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 51.5should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 51.5 -116 52¢ | — | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -649 | +441 |
All 21 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 51.5 -116 52¢ | — | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -630 | +464 |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 51.5 -114 | -670 | +440 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -630 | +465 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -14 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -102 | 51.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -630 | +464 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -699 | +470 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -649 | +441 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -114 | 51.5 -116 | -752 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas).
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -14.5, only $8 available; Under 51.5, only $61 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $241 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -393 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -618 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -405 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -577 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 55.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +14.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +464 | +473 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 54.5should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 53.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UTSA by 11, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 10 to UTSA by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -101 | 54.5 -115 | +342 | -467 |
All 20 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | — | — | -458 81¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -113 | 54.5 -109 | +360 | -500 |
| BetAnything | +11 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -102 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -105 | 55 -115 | +334 | -425 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -113 | 54.5 -109 | +360 | -500 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 54.5 -109 | +360 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11 -105 | 55 -115 | +333 | -425 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 55 -110 | +345 | -470 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +350 | -426 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | +340 | -440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -108 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11 -101 | 55 -114 | +334 | -425 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -101 | 54.5 -115 | +342 | -467 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 54.5 -116 | +330 | -526 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $96 available; Under 55.5, only $79 available; Rice Owls ML, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +404 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +382 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +452 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.0 | +421 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 58.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -11.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -467 | -388 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pmHawai'i to winour data says 60 in 100 · -137Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52 -102 | -146 | +124 |
All 21 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 51.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 51.5 -108 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52 -102 | -146 | +124 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -111 | -154 | +116 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i to win · -137 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 25% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -148 here against -135 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -187 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -187 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -137 | -152 | +2.6% |
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -115 | -126 | +2.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 5.8.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus; moneyline -148 here against -135 consensus.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMissouri +5.5should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -112 | 56.5 -113 | +177 | -214 |
All 21 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -113 | 57 -108 | +165 | -210 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 57 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -113 | 57 -108 | +165 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 57 -109 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 57 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -107 | 56.5 -110 | +172 | -205 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -112 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 56.5 -112 | +168 | -205 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +165 | -210 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -111 | 57 -108 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +169 | -210 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -112 | 56.5 -113 | +177 | -214 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 56.5 -116 | +162 | -220 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F, 37% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Florida Gators -5.5, only $22 available; Over 57.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +124 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +144 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +152 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +195 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +189 | +181 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.6.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmIllinois -10should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 61.5 -106 | -414 | +311 |
All 20 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 61.5 -107 50¢ | -404 79¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 60.5 -118 | -435 | +325 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 61.5 -108 | -400 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 61 -115 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 60.5 -118 | -435 | +325 |
| BetRivers | -10 -112 | 60.5 -118 | -455 | +325 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -415 | +310 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 61.5 -106 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 61.5 -108 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 60.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 61.5 -110 | -430 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 60.5 -120 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 61 -114 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -110 | 61.5 -106 | -414 | +311 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 61.5 -114 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F, 37% chance of rain.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Illinois, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +10.5, only $2 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -657 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -423 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -370 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 66.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -10.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -375 | -377 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 61.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.9.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmColorado State +6.5should be Colorado State +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +209 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +200 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +218 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +6.5 | -104 | -106 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +202 | +200 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 3.5.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amIowa State -2.5should be Iowa State -3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +0.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -407 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 | -122 | -134 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | -150 | -163 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmWashington +9.5should be Washington +9 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Washington is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -112 | 57.5 -107 | -379 | +289 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -110 | 58 -108 | -420 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -360 | +289 |
| betPARX | -10 -110 | 58 -108 | -420 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -10 -112 | 58 -109 | -420 | +300 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 57.5 -112 | -360 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 57.5 -113 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 58.5 -106 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 57.5 -114 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 58 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -112 | 57.5 -107 | -379 | +289 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -125 | 57.5 -119 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Washington, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Washington, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $25 available; USC Trojans ML, only $187 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -286 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -352 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Huskies +9.5 | +100 | -101 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Washington Huskies ML | +315 | +310 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +13.5should be Iowa +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Iowa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +402 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +310 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +531 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +13.5 | -102 | -102 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +440 | +432 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 1.7.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmKentucky +2.5should be Kentucky +2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -106 | -141 | +120 |
All 22 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -112 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -112 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -110 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -112 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -108 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -146 | +119 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -106 | -141 | +120 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 53.5 -114 | -152 | +114 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.5 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +2.5, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 | +100 | -100 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +120 | +121 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -6should be Alabama -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -111 | 59.5 -115 | +184 | -224 |
All 20 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -113 | 60 -115 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -113 | 60.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 60.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 60 -115 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 60 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -114 | 60.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 60.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -105 | 60.5 -114 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -109 | 60 -114 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +183 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -111 | 59.5 -115 | +184 | -224 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 60.5 -116 | +174 | -240 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -120 | 60.5 -110 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 42% chance of rain.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5, only $194 available; Under 60.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +293 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +163 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +325 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +206 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 63.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -6.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -225 | -208 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUnder 55.5should be 54.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -104 | 55.5 -108 | -1506 | +800 |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 55.5 -105 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 55.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 54.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 96¢ -4900 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -104 | 55.5 -106 | -1600 | +860 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -106 | 55 -108 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1408 | +750 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -104 | 55.5 -108 | -1506 | +800 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -109 | 55.5 -111 | -1587 | +670 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -878 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -581 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -822 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -563 |
| Market (18 books) | -21.0 | -1320 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +21.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +900 | +890 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at KansasCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amKansas -18.5should be Kansas -19 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 | — | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -1256 | +709 |
All 20 books
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 | — | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 50.5 -118 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -18 -110 | 50.5 -118 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18 -110 | 50.5 -118 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | -1252 | +842 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -105 | 50.5 -112 | -1350 | +800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in |
| Fanatics | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -17.5 -120 | 50.5 -120 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1205 | +700 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -1256 | +709 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 50.5 -116 | -1408 | +620 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 60°F.
Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks -18.5, only $306 available; Over 50.5, only $300 available; Under 50.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -836 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -567 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1761 |
| Massey | -21.5 | -1146 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks -18.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | -1087 | -813 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -6should be Michigan -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 | — | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -116 | 43 -110 | +180 | -217 |
All 21 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 | — | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -112 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 43.5 -113 | +175 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 43 -108 | +183 | -215 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -116 | 43 -110 | +180 | -217 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 43.5 -114 | +189 | -260 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $49 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $493 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +195 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +275 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.0 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -5.0 | -112 | -109 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -210 | -202 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -21.5should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | +848 | -1644 |
All 20 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Bally Bet | +21.5 -113 | 48 -108 | +1200 | — |
| BetAnything | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +21 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +1100 | -2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21 -105 | 47.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +21.5 -113 | 48 -108 | +1200 | — |
| BetRivers | +21.5 -114 | 48 -109 | +1150 | — |
| BetUS | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +1000 | -1800 |
| Bovada | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +850 | -1800 |
| Courtside | +21 -106 | 47.5 -106 | +1064 | -1635 |
| DraftKings | +21 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +1000 | -1800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in |
| Fanatics | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1050 | -1800 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -120 | 47.5 -106 | +1100 | -2500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +21.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +1200 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +21 -101 | 47.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +21.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +900 | -1887 |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | +848 | -1644 |
| ReBet | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -114 | +780 | -2273 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | +1000 | -2000 |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1319 |
| FPI | +20.5 | +921 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +609 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1202 |
| Market (18 books) | +21.5 | +1541 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +21.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +1242 | +1111 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.0.
The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake ForestCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amWake Forest -13should be Wake Forest -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -546 | +387 |
All 20 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -13 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -119 | 53.5 -108 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -610 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -549 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -546 | +387 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -599 | +370 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest).
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -509 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -440 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -369 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -495 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | -549 | -436 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45amOver 50.5should be 52.2 · getting 1.7 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -24 +100 | 51.5 +101 | -2612 | +1135 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -24 -107 | 51 -109 | — | +1600 |
| BetAnything | -24.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -24 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -2500 | +1350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -3000 | +1256 |
| betPARX | -24 -107 | 51 -109 | — | +1600 |
| BetRivers | -24 -109 | 51 -110 | — | +1500 |
| BetUS | -24.5 -105 | 51 -110 | -3000 | +1300 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -2800 | +1100 |
| Courtside | -24.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -24.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -24 -110 | 51 -110 | -2500 | +1300 |
| FanDuel | -23.5 -118 | 51.5 -104 | — | +1280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -23.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24.5 -101 | 50.5 -108 | -3000 | +1256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -24.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | +1161 |
| Pinnacle | -24 +100 | 51.5 +101 | -2612 | +1135 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -111 | 50.5 -119 | -3030 | +870 |
| theScore Bet | -24.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Georgia).
TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.1 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -1772 |
| FPI | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -823 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -844 |
| Market (18 books) | -24.5 | -2420 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +24.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +1775 | +1632 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.3.
TOM: spread -24.5 here against -24.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at BuffaloCFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -110 | 47 -107 | +415 | -598 |
All 20 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -115 | 47.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +14 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -109 | 47 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +14 -115 | 47.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14 -115 | 47.5 -117 | +510 | -835 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +425 | -600 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -106 | 46.5 -113 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -115 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -102 | 46.5 -112 | +480 | -690 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -105 | 47 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 47 -110 | +460 | -676 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -110 | 47 -107 | +415 | -598 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 46.5 -119 | +430 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls +13.5, only $38 available; Western Michigan Broncos -13.5, only $52 available; Over 46.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +284 |
| FPI | +13.5 | +452 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +441 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +387 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +556 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +13.5 | -102 | -102 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +450 | +435 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pmToledo -19should be Toledo -20 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -105 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +711 | -1263 |
All 21 books
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -105 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +20 -114 | 51.5 -115 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +825 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +795 | -1300 |
| betPARX | +20 -114 | 51.5 -115 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +19.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +780 | -1300 |
| Bovada | +19 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +725 | -1300 |
| Caesars | +19.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1450 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -106 | 51.5 -108 | +842 | -1252 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +19.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1300 |
| FanDuel | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +800 | -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +900 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +19 -101 | 51.5 -114 | +795 | -1300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +756 | -1384 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +711 | -1263 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -119 | 51.5 -116 | +630 | -1408 |
| theScore Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -120 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1344 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1212 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +596 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +827 |
| Market (19 books) | +19.0 | +1141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -19.0 | -115 | -109 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1384 | -908 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central MichiganCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCentral Michigan -7should be Central Michigan -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Central Michigan by 6 to Central Michigan by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 47 -110 | -262 | +211 |
All 20 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | -240 | +188 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | -240 | +188 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | -240 | +188 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -7 +100 | 47 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -118 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -245 | +198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 47 -103 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 47 -110 | -262 | +211 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 47.5 -109 | -275 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5, only $61 available; Under 47.5, only $26 available; Akron Zips ML, only $499 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -219 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -225 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -232 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +198 | +227 | -2.9% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -7should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 54.5 -102 | -288 | +230 |
All 20 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 -103 49¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -286 | +225 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -105 | 53.5 -112 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| betPARX | -7 -114 | 54.5 -113 | -286 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 54.5 -114 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -285 | +238 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 53.5 -113 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -106 | 53.5 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 54 -108 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -300 | +236 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 54.5 -102 | -288 | +230 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -111 | 54.5 -111 | -319 | +224 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 49% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Auburn).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -302 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -289 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -265 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -7.0 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -286 | -265 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at CharlotteCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 54should be 55.5 · getting 1.5 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 | — | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +20 -105 | 54 -109 | +750 | -1366 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 | — | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +20.5 -113 | 54.5 -108 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +20 -108 | 53.5 -118 | +900 | -1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +20 -110 | 54 -110 | +874 | -1500 |
| betPARX | +20.5 -113 | 54.5 -108 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +20.5 -113 | 54.5 -108 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +20 -110 | 54 -110 | +850 | -1500 |
| Bovada | +20 -105 | 54 -110 | +750 | -1400 |
| Courtside | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +897 | -1339 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -112 | 54.5 -105 | +850 | -1450 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +19.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +850 | -1400 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +890 | -1700 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +20.5 -110 | 53.5 -120 | +900 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +20 -106 | 54 -108 | +874 | -1500 |
| MyBookie.ag | +20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +740 | -1299 |
| Pinnacle | +20 -105 | 54 -109 | +750 | -1366 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -109 | 53.5 -119 | +650 | -1493 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 47% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +20.5, only $75 available; Over 53.5, only $53 available; Under 53.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +27.5 | +2279 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +592 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +566 |
| Massey | +18.5 | +781 |
| Market (18 books) | +20.0 | +1224 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +20.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +862 | +845 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmVirginia -2.5should be Virginia -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 51.5 -112 | +121 | -142 |
All 20 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 51.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 51.5 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -106 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | +116 | -138 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 51.5 -103 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +116 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 51.5 -112 | +121 | -142 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 51.5 -111 | +112 | -149 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +213 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -140 | -125 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia State -1should be Georgia State -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 1, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 2.6 toward Georgia State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -235 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +127 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.0 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers -1.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | -120 | -110 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 46should be 43.9 · getting 2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Wyoming).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.5 | -1294 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -738 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -722 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -471 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1063 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys +18.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | +825 | +779 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pmOver 54.5should be 56 · getting 1.3 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 | 55.5 | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -1057 | +629 |
All 21 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 | 55.5 | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -1000 | +675 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 55 -110 | -950 | +637 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -950 | +630 |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -18.5 -107 | 55.5 -105 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -103 | 55.5 +102 | -943 | +679 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -17.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -112 | -1200 | +720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1600 | +850 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 55 -108 | -950 | +637 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -1057 | +629 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -114 | 54.5 -119 | -1205 | +570 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: James Madison Dukes -17.5, only $245 available; Over 55.5, only $49 available; Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $336 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1708 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -738 |
| Market (19 books) | -18.5 | -947 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 58.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -18.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -950 | -861 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNebraska -14.5should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -699 | +467 |
All 21 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -16 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -15 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -115 | 52 -115 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -113 | 52 -113 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -16 -110 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -103 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -112 | 52.5 -105 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 89¢ -1011 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -111 | 52 -114 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -752 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -699 | +467 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 52.5 -111 | -847 | +460 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.7 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $63 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -549 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -553 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -424 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -615 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -694 | -540 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New MexicoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNew Mexico -22.5should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -104 | -1985 | +957 |
All 20 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23 -109 | 48.5 -115 | — | +1200 |
| BetAnything | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -22.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | -2000 | +1150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23 -109 | 48.5 -115 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -23 -109 | 48.5 -115 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2250 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -22.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Courtside | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -1882 | +1177 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -2100 | +1100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -22.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | -2800 | +1160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -106 | 48.5 -106 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -104 | -1985 | +957 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -111 | 48.5 -111 | -2500 | +820 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | — | +1300 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $83 available; Under 48.5, only $13 available; New Mexico Lobos ML, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.5 | -2271 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1842 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -865 |
| Market (18 books) | -22.5 | -1811 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -22.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -1800 | -1537 | priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmBYU -6.5should be BYU -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +208 31¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +204 | -251 |
All 20 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +208 31¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +190 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +205 | -245 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -106 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -114 | 48.5 -104 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -101 | 48.5 -103 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +204 | -251 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -114 | +199 | -280 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 +100 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 40% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $21 available; Over 47.5, only $14 available; BYU Cougars ML, only $330 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +201 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +202 | +210 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 3.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmGeorgia Southern -2.5should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 54 -109 | +114 | -134 |
All 20 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | — | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -114 | 53.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2 -114 | 53.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 53.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 54 -108 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 54 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 54 -109 | +114 | -134 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 53.5 -119 | +104 | -137 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F, 37% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles -2.5, only $47 available; Over 54.5, only $50 available; Under 54.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +110 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +110 | +116 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmBoise State -20should be Boise State -20 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -829 |
| FPI | -20.5 | -914 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -865 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -453 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.0 | -1231 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +20.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +860 | +885 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmMiami -16.5should be Miami -16.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | +573 14¢ | -788 88¢ |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -109 | 49 -102 | +544 | -862 |
All 19 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 +105 47¢ | +573 14¢ | -788 88¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -910 |
| BetAnything | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -800 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -110 | 49 -105 | +590 | -860 |
| betPARX | +17 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -910 |
| BetRivers | +17 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +580 | -860 |
| Bovada | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +550 | -850 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -106 | 48.5 -110 | +572 | -761 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +550 | -800 |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +575 | -850 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +610 | -950 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -900 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -106 | 49 -103 | +590 | -860 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +538 | -838 |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -109 | 49 -102 | +544 | -862 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 48.5 -114 | +520 | -1000 |
| theScore Bet | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 79°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +797 |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +284 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +315 |
| Market (18 books) | +16.5 | +753 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +16.5 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +585 | +595 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.2.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmIndiana -24should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +1242 7¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 -101 | 56 -108 | +1098 | -2473 |
All 21 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +1242 7¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +24 -109 | 55.5 -108 | +1300 | — |
| BetAnything | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +24 -108 | 56.5 -105 | +1300 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +24 -109 | 55.5 -108 | +1300 | — |
| BetRivers | +24 -110 | 55.5 -109 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | +1150 | -2400 |
| Bovada | +24.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +23.5 -102 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | +24.5 -116 | 55.5 -119 | +1290 | -2122 |
| DraftKings | +24.5 -118 | 56.5 -105 | +1200 | -2400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +23.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in | — |
| Fanatics | +24.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +24.5 -118 | 55.5 -114 | +1280 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +23.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -106 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +970 | -2273 |
| Pinnacle | +24 -101 | 56 -108 | +1098 | -2473 |
| ReBet | +24.5 -111 | 55.5 -116 | +830 | -2500 |
| theScore Bet | +23.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 64°F, 27% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Indiana).
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $26 available; Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $221 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2008 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +594 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1203 |
| Market (19 books) | +24.0 | +2146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -24.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2500 | -1705 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sun Oct 4
14 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · 49ers, Broncos at 49ersDenver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers -2.5should be 49ers -4.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was -3Sniff of Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 4.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -147 | +127 |
All 23 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 46.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -147 | +127 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 46.5 -110 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -106 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -110 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -107 | -147 | +127 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +121 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 46.5 -110 | -149 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 46.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $13 available; San Francisco 49ers -2.5, only $60 available; Denver Broncos +2.5, only $160 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -351 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -210 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | -115 | -158 | +7.8% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -147 | -194 | +6.4% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmUnder 52should be 50.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 50Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 52.0. Massey and FPI say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Jaguars too: market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2, but at -101 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 52 -106 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 51 -108 | -144 | +125 |
All 26 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 52 -106 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 51 -114 | -143 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 51 -120 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 52 -106 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 51 -114 | -143 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 51 -114 | -143 | +118 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 52 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | -148 | +124 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 +100 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -126 | +108 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -115 | 52 -103 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -148 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -113 | 51 -108 | -144 | +125 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 50.5 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -109 | -142 | +120 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -114 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F, 38% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $13 available; Over 50.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 5 more.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | -101 | -108 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +120 | +115 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -114 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.1 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJets +3should be Jets +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · JetsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jets. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jets is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -152 | +132 |
All 22 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 43 -107 | -162 | +123 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 43 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -152 | +132 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 43 -107 | -162 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 43 -107 | -162 | +123 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Caesars | -3 -106 | 43 -110 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 42.5 -122 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 43.5 -102 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 43.5 -105 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 43 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 43 -107 | -152 | +132 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | -162 | +127 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | +138 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -139 | 42.5 -125 | -156 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $11 available; Under 43.5, only $12 available; Chicago Bears -2.5, only $197 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 5 more.
Chicago Bears has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | -111 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Jets's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -299 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | +138 | +116 | +4.3% |
| Spread | New York Jets +3.0 | -110 | -130 | +4.1% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +2.5should be Cowboys +1.5 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMSniff of Nasty · CowboysBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cowboys. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2 -118 | 47.5 -111 | -141 | +123 |
All 26 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 48 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 48 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 47.5 -115 | -137 | +116 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -113 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48 -107 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -144 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -118 | 47.5 -111 | -141 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 47.5 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -120 | -138 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +2.5 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Cowboys, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $116 available; Over 47.5, only $104 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +120 | +112 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +2.5 | -105 | -110 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Dallas Cowboys since 09-26 12:11.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at BuccaneersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmPackers to winour data says 66 in 100 · -185▲Sniff of Nasty · PackersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Packers. Market says Packers by 4, the Nasty Number says Packers by 4.5. At -185 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 +101 48¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +161 | -185 |
All 24 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 +101 48¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +4 -110 | 40 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 40 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -113 | 39.5 -115 | +153 | -182 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -125 | 39.5 -116 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 39.5 -118 | +164 | -198 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 39.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 40 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -114 | +152 | -180 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +145 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -105 | 39.5 -105 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +153 | -198 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Packers to win · -185 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 86°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now Sniff of Nasty · Packers.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -3.5, only $12 available; Under 40.5, only $4 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| FPI | +6.5 | +179 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | -106 |
| Market (20 books) | +4.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -185 | -194 | +1.0% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -3.5 | -107 | -111 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -108 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmUnder 48should be 46.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 45.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48 -103 | +183 | -217 |
All 26 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +174 35¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | — | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +180 | -210 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -114 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -113 | +194 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +190 | -230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +180 | -215 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -107 | 48 -113 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +174 | -228 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48 -103 | +183 | -217 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -104 | — | +186 | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +182 | -218 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).
Kalshi thin: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5, only $121 available; Over 48.5, only $24 available; Under 48.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +202 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +148 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -210 | -196 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmUnder 43.5should be 42.3 · getting 1.2 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey and FPI say under by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -117 | 43.5 -105 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -124 | 43 -109 | -320 | +258 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -117 | 43.5 -105 | -330 | +255 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -117 | 43.5 -105 | -330 | +267 |
| betPARX | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -330 | +270 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -320 | +260 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -320 | +255 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 43.5 -103 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 43.5 -105 | -345 | +275 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 43.5 -106 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 43.5 -105 | -345 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -113 | 43.5 -102 | -330 | +267 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -360 | +260 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -124 | 43 -109 | -320 | +258 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +108 | 42.5 | -300 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 43.5 -109 | -340 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $173 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $280 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers) and 7 more.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game | |
| FPI | -7.5 | -318 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game | |
| Massey | -10.0 | -405 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -316 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +7.0 | -103 | -101 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +275 | +285 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -115 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.2 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pmPanthers +3.5should be Panthers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Panthers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 50 -113 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +113 | 50.5 -106 | +161 | -188 |
All 25 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 50 -113 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -113 | 50 -113 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 50 -115 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 50.5 -106 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +160 | -190 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +150 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -108 | 50 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +154 | -200 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +113 | 50.5 -106 | +161 | -188 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 50.5 -108 | — | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 50.5 -110 | +158 | -196 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -115 | 50.5 -105 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F, 47% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions -3.5, only $0 available; Under 50.5, only $12 available; Carolina Panthers ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game | |
| FPI | +2.5 | +129 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (21 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.5 | -108 | -117 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +160 | +151 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -113 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.4 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +2.5should be Eagles +2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Eagles's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
All 18 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +114 | -137 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 46 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +114 | -137 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 46 -108 | +114 | -134 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 46 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Polymarket | — | — | +127 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -109 | +117 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 +100 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F, 48% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $12 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $153 available; Los Angeles Rams -2.5, only $133 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 6, worth about 0.4 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game | |
| Massey | -1.0 | -101 |
| Market (15 books) | +2.5 | +127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +2.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +115 | +118 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralColts -3should be Colts -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Colts by 3, the Nasty Number says Colts by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +106 | 47 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +114 | 47 -107 | +162 | -190 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +106 | 47 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -118 | 46.5 -113 | +148 | -182 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 47 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +106 | 47 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -118 | 46.5 -113 | +148 | -182 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -118 | 46.5 -113 | +148 | -182 |
| BetUS | +3 +105 | 47 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -113 | 47 -110 | +150 | -179 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 +100 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -102 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -102 | +144 | -172 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | +145 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +115 | 47 -107 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -187 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +114 | 47 -107 | +162 | -190 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 46.5 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -109 | +151 | -179 |
| theScore Bet | +3 +100 | 46.5 -120 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Commanders).
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders +3.5, only $388 available; Over 46.5, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| FPI | +3.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Massey | +3.5 | +106 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3.0 | -126 | -111 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | -172 | -162 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +1should be Giants PK · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cardinals by 1, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Giants by 1 to Cardinals by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 44.5 -112 | -104 | -116 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 +116 | 44.5 -109 | +100 | -115 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 44.5 -112 | -104 | -116 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -112 51¢ | -103 49¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Bally Bet | +0.5 -112 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetAnything | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1 -112 | 44.5 -108 | -105 | -112 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -108 | 44.5 -112 | -104 | -116 |
| betPARX | +0.5 -112 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetRivers | PK -109 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetUS | PK -105 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -107 | -110 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -118 | 44.5 -106 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -118 | 44.5 -108 | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | -0.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +102 | 43.5 -115 | -108 | -108 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -125 | 44.5 -105 | -105 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -115 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -115 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -115 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -103 | 44.5 -109 | -104 | -116 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -111 | -115 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 +116 | 44.5 -109 | +100 | -115 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -113 | — | +104 | -108 |
| ReBet | +0.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -106 | -110 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -120 | 44.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -0.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Cardinals).
Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $12 available; Over 44.5, only $135 available; Under 44.5, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Deonte Banks (CB, Giants), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game | |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +1.0 | -108 | -106 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -104 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -108 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.4 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -11.5should be Ravens -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | -719 87¢ | +573 14¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -675 | +491 |
All 24 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 | -719 87¢ | +573 14¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -109 | 43.5 -109 | -770 | +525 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -675 | +491 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -109 | 43.5 -109 | -770 | +525 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -109 | 43.5 -109 | -770 | +525 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +480 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +530 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -830 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +525 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -675 | +491 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -847 | +500 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -614 | +567 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +11.5, only $12 available; Over 43.5, only $13 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -438 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| Massey | -10.5 | -433 |
| Market (20 books) | -11.5 | -661 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +573 | +443 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -108 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -6.5should be Bills -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +103 | 48.5 -102 | -305 | +248 |
All 26 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -120 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -7 -103 | 48.5 -108 | -302 | +256 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -335 | +270 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -345 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +105 | 48.5 -102 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +103 | 48.5 -102 | -305 | +248 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 | -285 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +244 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Bills).
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots +6.5, only $195 available; Over 48.5, only $260 available; New England Patriots ML, only $129 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Eli Raridon (TE, Patriots) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| Massey | -6.0 | -229 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6.5 | -115 | -106 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -300 | -273 | -1.8% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -11should be Vikings -11 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 11, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -650 | +476 |
All 23 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -112 51¢ | 39.5 | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -109 | 39 -114 | -670 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -11 -110 | 39 -110 | -675 | +475 |
| BetMGM | -11 -108 | 39 -108 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -650 | +476 |
| betPARX | -11 -109 | 39 -114 | -670 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -11 -109 | 39.5 -107 | -670 | +475 |
| BetUS | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -650 | +475 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -118 | -625 | +450 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 38.5 -113 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 39.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -115 | 39 -110 | -650 | +460 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -620 | +460 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | -660 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11 -110 | 39 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11 -110 | 39 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11 -110 | 39 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -105 | 38.5 -102 | -650 | +476 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 39 -110 | -752 | +470 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 39.5 -109 | -676 | +490 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 39.5, only $12 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $167 available; Miami Dolphins +10.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 5 more.
TOM: total 38.5 here against 39.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -434 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game | |
| Massey | -10.0 | -412 |
| Market (20 books) | -11.0 | -590 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami Dolphins +11.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Miami Dolphins ML | +475 | +434 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.7.
TOM: total 38.5 here against 39.0 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Mon Oct 5
1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Under, Falcons at SaintsAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pmUnder 48.5should be 47.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 47.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. Massey and FPI say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +105 | 48.5 -105 | -148 | +130 |
All 21 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | — | — | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -104 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -109 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -156 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +105 | 48.5 -105 | -148 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | — | -144 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -153 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 48.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Barion Brown (WR, Saints) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -192 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -159 |
| Market (17 books) | -2.5 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -148 | -154 | +1.0% |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -2.5 | -120 | -124 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -108 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 4-6 | 40.0% | -2.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 4-4 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 21-29 | 42.0% | -10.4 u | |
| Not Nasty | 193 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-28 18:07.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.97 | 113 |
| FPI | 10.57 | 169 |
| The market | 10.65 | 230 |
| SP+ | 10.66 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 220 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 115 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 113 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 139 |
The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.
The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 30 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 10.18 | 47 |
| Massey | 10.32 | 30 |
| nfelo | 10.60 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 10.67 | 47 |
| FPI | 10.80 | 32 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 30 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 30 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 30 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 30 |
The line archive, 47 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 28 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 42 games. The close misses the final by 10.18, the open by 10.31, our raw ratings number by 10.66, Pinnacle's close by 10.17. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.09, Polymarket 8.91, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 9.68.
The head start. 105 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 44 times, against it 25, average 0.42 points; the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped 4, went quiet 52.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 105 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 44 of 105 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 52. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan State at Wisconsin | Michigan State +10.2 | 10.2 | 10 | +0.2 | no call |
| Navy at Air Force | Over | 48.8 | 47.1 | -1.7 | same side |
| Ohio State at Iowa | Iowa +14.4 | 14.4 | 13.5 | +0.9 | no call |
| Ohio at Kent State | Ohio -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | +1.0 | no call |
| Old Dominion at Georgia State | Georgia State +2.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | +1.6 | no call |
| Purdue at Illinois | Illinois Fighting -9.5 | -9.5 | -10 | +0.5 | same side |
| San José State at Hawai'i | Under | 57.5 | 51.8 | +5.7 | no call |
| UCF at Houston | UCF +10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 | same side |
| UL Monroe at South Alabama | Over | 54.5 | 55.9 | +1.4 | no call |
| Washington at USC | Over | 53.5 | 56.4 | +2.9 | no call |
| West Virginia at Iowa State | Iowa State +2 | 2 | -2.7 | +4.7 | same side |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay +3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 120 | 13.4 | 34-46 (42%) | 22-25 (47%) |
| Massey | 123 | 12.6 | 27-34 (44%) | 8-20 (29%) |
| The blend | 125 | 12.8 | 26-36 (42%) | 10-19 (34%) |
NFL, 37 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 33 | 11.0 | 9-11 (45%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| FPI | 31 | 10.6 | 8-2 (80%) | 6-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 33 | 10.1 | 8-4 (67%) | 3-1 (75%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 73 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 4 cleared every check.
What's changed since 5:22pm
- MovedPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies is now Pittsburgh Panthers +3.0, was Pittsburgh Panthers +3.5.
- MovedEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen is now UMass Minutemen -5.5, was UMass Minutemen -4.5.
- OffCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats dropped off. It was Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.0Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinalstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
- → 3.4Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison Dukestoward James Madison Dukeswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 169 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 143 | 10.04 |
| The market | 277 | 10.57 |
| nfelo | 47 | 10.60 |
| FPI | 201 | 10.61 |
| SP+ | 169 | 10.66 |
| Sagarin | 267 | 11.85 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 123-126 | 49% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 3-8 | 27% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 5-6 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 854570 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.14 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 170 | 1.49 |
| DraftKings | 367 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | 396 | 1.43 |
| BetOnline.ag | 356 | 1.29 |
| BetRivers | 387 | 1.29 |
| LowVig.ag | 348 | 1.29 |
| ReBet | 173 | 1.22 |
| MyBookie.ag | 285 | 1.22 |
| Bally Bet | 179 | 1.15 |
| betPARX | 179 | 1.14 |
| BetMGM | 354 | 1.11 |
| BetUS | 289 | 1.09 |
| Caesars | 306 | 1.07 |
| TOM | 305 | 1.06 |
| Bovada | 348 | 1.04 |
| Fanatics | 314 | 1.04 |
| Pinnacle | 350 | 0.96 |
| theScore Bet | 177 | 0.96 |
| Courtside | 127 | 0.93 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 174 | 0.92 |
| BetAnything | 153 | 0.82 |
| Fliff | 128 | 0.75 |
| Polymarket | 32 | 0.59 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 45 | 0.57 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 45 | 0.52 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated yesterday
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated today
- Sagarin updated yesterday
- Sagarin NFL updated 6 days ago
- nfelo updated 5 days ago