Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

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picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Mon 12:17 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pm✓FPISun 8:30am✓SagarinSun 10:18am✓MasseyMon 8:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 172 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloSun 6:02am✓FPISun 6:02am✓SagarinMon 2:55pm✓MasseyMon 8:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 30 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

Track record: 18 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Virginia at West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptWest Virginia +10should be West Virginia +8.5 · getting 1.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›4.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Marshall at Missouri StateMissouri State +3.5should be Missouri State +2 · getting 1.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 5:30pm Buck's case ›4.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.UAB at LouisianaMoved our way · 2.5 ptsOver 56should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Colorado at NorthwesternMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 49should be 46.7 · getting 2.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.UConn at Southern MissSouthern Miss +3should be Southern Miss +2 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›2.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Florida at AuburnUnder 52.5should be 50.7 · getting 1.8 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.NC State at VanderbiltMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 51should be 52.4 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:45am Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.LSU at Ole MissUnder 59should be 57.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.

17 more, weaker reads

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Broncos at ChiefsUnder 43.5should be 42.3 · getting 1.2 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Monday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Virginia at West Virginia West Virginia +10 the strongest at 4.9% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is UAB at Louisiana, Over 56, down 2.5 since the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Virginia at West Virginia, West Virginia +10. Bet it like you'd lose it, because you might.

Buck

Today

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs

GameThe call

Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs

NFL 7:15pm

Under 43.5

should be 42.3 · getting 1.2 pts

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 1.5TOM, -115

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 3.5

FPI

Chiefs by 3

Sagarin

Chiefs by 3

Massey

Chiefs by 2

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 2.5 to Chiefs by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM, Under -113

The Four

Massey

40.43.1 pts under the market

Weather

-1.013 mph wind, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.44.1 pts under the market

Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-1.5 -115	43.5 -107	-129	+109
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
BetOnline.ag	-2 -115	43.5 -110	-135	+115

All 13 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-1.5 -115	43.5 -107	-129	+109
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	43.5 -110	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2 -115	43.5 -110	-135	+115
BetRivers	-2.5 -109	43 -114	-134	+110
BetUS	-1 -120	43.5 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2 -115	43.5 -105	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -106	43.5 -112	-134	+113
DraftKings	-2.5 -108	43.5 -108	-130	+110
Fanatics	-2.5 -105	43.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	43.5 -112	-134	+114
LowVig.ag	-2 -109	43.5 -107	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	43.5 -110	-136	+111

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -1.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -129 at TOM

We make it 56 in 100 to win. The price says 56. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 56 cents fair, a play under 51.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 40. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -113 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 88°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Broncos).

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

BetUS still has Chiefs -1.0 while BetOnline.ag is at Chiefs by 2.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-150
FPI	-3.0	-146
Sagarin	-3.0	-141
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (11 books)	-1.5	-123

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	39.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -1.5	-115	-113	-0.4%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-129	-127	-0.5%
Total	Under 43.5	-113	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Denver Broncos since 09-07 15:54.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 17

2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Syracuse, Syracuse at Pittsburgh

GameThe call

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh PanthersSyracuse at Pittsburgh

CFB Thu 17 Sep, 6:30pm

Syracuse +10.5

should be Syracuse +10 · getting 0.5 pts

Sniff of Nasty · SyracuseBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Syracuse. Market says Pittsburgh by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 10. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore Pittsburgh →

Market

Pittsburgh by 10.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game

FPI

Pittsburgh by 12.52.1 pts against us

Sagarin

Pittsburgh by 9.51.2 pts our side

Massey

Pittsburgh by 37.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Pittsburgh by 100.4 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Syracuse. FPI at Pittsburgh by 12.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

53.31.8 pts over the market

Massey

52.30.8 pts over the market

Weather

-1.062% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

51.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-10.5 -112	51.5 -112	-420	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	51.5 +101 48¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -112	51 -108	-420	+330

All 12 books

	Pittsburgh spread	Total (over)	Pittsburgh ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	-10.5 -112	51.5 -112	-420	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -107 50¢	51.5 +101 48¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-11 -108	51.5 -102	-425	+320
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -112	51 -108	-420	+330
BetRivers	-10.5 -109	51 -114	-480	+325
BetUS	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-11.5 -110	51 -110	-460	+340
Caesars	-10.5 -113	51.5 -106	-420	+325
DraftKings	-10.5 -112	51.5 -102	-440	+340
FanDuel	-10.5 -115	51.5 -110	-420	+320
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -108	51 -106	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-10.5 -110	51.5 -110	-500	+340

Marked: best for Syracuse, higher payout on each moneyline.

Syracuse +10.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Syracuse to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Syracuse +10.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -402 here against -350 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPittsburgh by 1030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Syracuse and Pittsburgh's last game
FPI	-12.5	-401
Sagarin	-9.5	-273
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (10 books)	-10.5	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Syracuse Orange +10.5	-108	-112	+0.8%
Moneyline	Syracuse Orange ML	+310	+300	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 8.2.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -350 consensus.

Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills

NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm

Over 53.5

should be 54.5 · getting 1 pt · was 52

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 4. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 4.5TOM, -103

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game

Massey

Bills by 2.52.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bills by 40.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Lions. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

56.93.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.93.4 pts over the market

Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Lions ML
TOM	-4.5 -103	53.5 -110	-212	+172
Kalshi	-4.5	53.5 -107 50¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	53.5 -110	-212	+181

All 13 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Lions ML
TOM	-4.5 -103	53.5 -110	-212	+172
Kalshi	-4.5	53.5 -107 50¢	-208 66¢	+174 35¢
BetMGM	-4.5 -108	53.5 -108	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	53.5 -110	-212	+181
BetRivers	-4 -114	53 -108	-210	+170
BetUS	-4 -110	53.5 -110	-210	+180
Bovada	-3.5 -115	53.5 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-4.5 -106	53.5 -107	-205	+171
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	53.5 -110	-192	+160
Fanatics	-4 -110	53.5 -110	-205	+170
FanDuel	-4.5 -105	53.5 -110	-215	+180
LowVig.ag	-4.5 +100	53.5 -107	-212	+181
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	53.5 -110	-200	+154

Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions +4.5 · -117 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Lions to win · +172 at TOM

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 57. That's 3.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -4.5, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Skyler Bell (WR, Bills), Jude Bowry (OT, Bills), Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G, Bills) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -203 here against -183 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (11 books)	-4.5	-203

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	56.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	+172	+160	+1.8%
Spread	Detroit Lions +4.5	-117	-121	+0.7%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-10 10:21; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.1 consensus; moneyline -203 here against -183 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 18

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake Forest

CFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Miami by 20.5, our data says Miami by 19

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 20.5.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Wake Forest →

Market

Miami by 20.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game

FPI

Miami by 19.5

Sagarin

Miami by 15.5

Massey

Wake Forest by 1.5

Nasty Number

Miami by 191.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5

The Four

SP+ pace

43.611.8 pts under the market

Massey

56.20.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.95.5 pts under the market

Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+20.5	—	—	-1429 93¢
BetOnline.ag	+20.5 -108	55.5 -110	+979	-1800

All 11 books

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+20.5	—	—	-1429 93¢
BetMGM	+21 -112	55.5 -108	+1000	-1600
BetOnline.ag	+20.5 -108	55.5 -110	+979	-1800
BetRivers	+20 -112	55 -114	+1150	—
BetUS	+21 -110	55.5 -110	+1000	-1800
Bovada	+21 -110	55 -110	+900	-1900
Caesars	+20.5 -106	55.5 -110	+1000	-2000
DraftKings	+20.5 +100	55.5 -108	+1000	-1800
FanDuel	+20.5 -104	55.5 -105	+890	-1700
LowVig.ag	+20.5 -104	55.5 -108	+979	-1800
MyBookie.ag	+20.5 -110	55.5 -110	+740	-1587

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest +20.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Wake Forest to win · +989

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +20.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Miami).

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5, only $33 available; Over 55.5, only $348 available; Under 55.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 1930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game
FPI	+19.5	+955
Sagarin	+15.5	+554
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (10 books)	+20.5	+1000

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Wake Forest Demon Deacons +20.5	-110	+114	-5.5%
Moneyline	Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML	+989	+901	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 2.9.

The line is +20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red RaidersHouston at Texas Tech

CFB Fri 18 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says Texas Tech by 7.5, our data says Texas Tech by 8

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →

Market

Texas Tech by 7.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game

FPI

Texas Tech by 9

Sagarin

Texas Tech by 9.5

Massey

Texas Tech by 2.5

Nasty Number

Texas Tech by 80.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 8.5 to Texas Tech by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5

The Four

SP+ pace

53.90.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.81.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.31 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas Tech spread	Total (over)	Texas Tech ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -110	53 -110	-300	+245

All 11 books

	Texas Tech spread	Total (over)	Texas Tech ML	Houston ML
Kalshi	-7.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -112 51¢	-306 74¢	+252 27¢
BetMGM	-7.5 -115	53.5 -110	-300	+250
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -110	53 -110	-300	+245
BetRivers	-7.5 -113	53 -113	-335	+250
BetUS	-7.5 -110	53 -110	-300	+250
Bovada	-7 -120	53.5 -110	-300	+250
Caesars	-7.5 -113	53.5 -109	-325	+255
DraftKings	-7.5 -112	53.5 -112	-325	+260
FanDuel	-8.5 -106	53.5 -110	-330	+260
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -106	53 -108	-300	+245
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 -110	53.5 -110	-340	+248

Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -7.5 · -110

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Texas Tech to win · -300

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 32% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 6.0 toward Houston). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Houston and Texas Tech's last game
FPI	-9.0	-266
Sagarin	-9.5	-277
Massey	-2.5	-133
Market (10 books)	-7.5	-267

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	54.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Tech Red Raiders -7.5	-110	+111	-5.0%
Moneyline	Texas Tech Red Raiders ML	-300	-236	-4.8%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.0 toward Houston Cougars since 09-10 18:23; total has moved up 1.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Portland State Vikings at Oregon DucksPortland State at Oregon

CFB Fri 18 Sep, 9:30pm

No bet

market says Oregon by 58.5, our data says Oregon by 56.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oregon by 58.5.

The spread

← more Portland State than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 58.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon's last game

Sagarin

Oregon by 51.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 56.52.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Portland State +58.5 · -110

Covers 65 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 71°F.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 56.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Portland State
Sagarin	-51.5	—
Massey	rates Portland State and Oregon on different scales
Market (1 books)	-58.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	65.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Portland State Vikings +58.5	-110	-187	+12.8%

The line is -58.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 19

70 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Missouri State, Marshall at Missouri State

GameThe call

Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State BearsMarshall at Missouri State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:30pm

Missouri State +3.5

should be Missouri State +2 · getting 1.5 pts

Sniff of Nasty · Missouri StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Missouri State. Market says Marshall by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 2. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 51.5 as well.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore Missouri State →

Market

Marshall by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Marshall and Missouri State's last game

FPI

Missouri State by 47.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Marshall by 12.7 pts our side

Massey

Missouri State by 25.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Marshall by 21.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Missouri State. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Missouri State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

61.49.9 pts over the market

Massey

575.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.27.7 pts over the market

Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Missouri State spread	Total (over)	Missouri State ML	Marshall ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+135	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Missouri State spread	Total (over)	Missouri State ML	Marshall ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+135	-165
BetMGM	+3.5 -108	51.5 -110	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+4 -112	51.5 -109	+138	-175
BetUS	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3.5 -110	52 -110	+150	-175
DraftKings	+3.5 -115	51.5 -112	+145	-175
FanDuel	+4.5 -115	51.5 -110	+152	-184
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -106	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	51.5 -110	+148	-191

Marked: best for Missouri State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Missouri State to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 7.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri State +3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 90°F.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +158 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMarshall by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Marshall and Missouri State's last game
FPI	-4.0	-156
Sagarin	+1.0	+109
Massey	-2.0	-121
Market (9 books)	+3.5	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	59.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri State Bears +3.5	-110	-130	+4.1%
Moneyline	Missouri State Bears ML	+135	+122	+2.4%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +158 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West Virginia

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

West Virginia +10

should be West Virginia +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +8.5

Sniff of Nasty · West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, West Virginia. Market says Virginia by 10, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 8.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 53.5 as well.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore West Virginia →

Market

Virginia by 10TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game

FPI

Virginia by 90.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Virginia by 2.57.6 pts our side

Massey

West Virginia by 1.511.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Virginia by 8.51.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in West Virginia's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Under -112

The Four

SP+ pace

46.47.1 pts under the market

Massey

52.51 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.54 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+10 -105	53.5 -108	+285	-375
Kalshi	+9.5	53.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-381 78¢
BetOnline.ag	+10 -105	53.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	West Virginia spread	Total (over)	West Virginia ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+10 -105	53.5 -108	+285	-375
Kalshi	+9.5	53.5 -116 52¢	+296 24¢	-381 78¢
BetMGM	+10 -110	54.5 -112	+280	-350
BetOnline.ag	+10 -105	53.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+10 -112	54.5 -110	+295	-420
BetUS	+10 -105	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+10 -110	54 -105	+300	-400
Caesars	+10 -109	53.5 -114	+295	-380
DraftKings	+10 -108	53.5 -112	+310	-395
FanDuel	+9.5 -105	53.5 -115	+260	-330
LowVig.ag	+10 -101	53.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	54.5 -110	+280	-400

Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia +10.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

West Virginia to win · +285 at TOM

We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 24.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 53. That's 4.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is West Virginia +10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from West Virginia, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers +9.5, only $23 available; Under 53.5, only $345 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 8.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game
FPI	+9.0	+271
Sagarin	+2.5	+129
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (10 books)	+10.0	+298

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	49.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	West Virginia Mountaineers +10.0	-105	-128	+4.9%
Moneyline	West Virginia Mountaineers ML	+285	+247	+2.8%
Total	Under 53.5	-112	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-12 16:05.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic OwlsFlorida International at Florida Atlantic

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm

Florida International +6.5

should be Florida International +5.5 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5

Sniff of Nasty · Florida InternationalBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Florida International. Market says Florida Atlantic by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 5.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida International than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 6.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game

FPI

Florida Atlantic by 0.55.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Florida Atlantic by 6.5on the market

Massey

Florida Atlantic by 2.54.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 5.50.9 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Florida International. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Florida International is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

65.93.4 pts over the market

Massey

60.12.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.077% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

620.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Florida International ML
TOM	-6.5 -112	62.5 -112	-255	+205
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -107 50¢	-250 70¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -112	62.5 -105	—	—

All 11 books

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Florida International ML
TOM	-6.5 -112	62.5 -112	-255	+205
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	62.5 -107 50¢	-250 70¢	—
BetMGM	-6.5 -115	62.5 -108	-250	+200
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -112	62.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-7 -114	62.5 -110	-265	+200
BetUS	-6.5 -110	62.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	-6.5 -110	62.5 -110	-250	+210
DraftKings	-6.5 -120	62.5 -110	-265	+215
FanDuel	-6.5 -114	62.5 -110	-245	+198
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -108	62.5 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	62.5 -110	-265	+200

Marked: best for Florida International, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida International +6.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Florida International to win · +205 at TOM

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31.

Not Nasty

the Under 62.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 60. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Florida International +6.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.9 toward Florida International, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers +6.5, only $450 available; Under 62.5, only $0 available; Florida International Panthers ML, only $417 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -244 here against -219 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida International and Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI	-0.5	-108
Sagarin	-6.5	-201
Massey	-2.5	-129
Market (9 books)	-6.5	-244

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.5	62.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Florida International Panthers ML	+205	+182	+2.7%
Spread	Florida International Panthers +6.5	-108	-113	+1.1%
Total	Under 62.5	-108	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: moneyline -244 here against -219 consensus.

UConn Huskies at Southern Mississippi Golden EaglesUConn at Southern Miss

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

Southern Miss +3

should be Southern Miss +2 · getting 1 pt

Sniff of Nasty · Southern MissBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Southern Miss. Market says UConn by 3, the Nasty Number says UConn by 2. At -104 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Southern Miss →

Market

UConn by 3TOM, -104

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UConn and Southern Miss's last game

FPI

Southern Miss by 68.8 pts our side

Sagarin

UConn by 3.50.6 pts against us

Massey

Southern Miss by 24.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

UConn by 21 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Southern Miss. Sagarin at UConn by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Southern Miss is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.22.2 pts over the market

Massey

55.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

562 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	UConn ML
TOM	+3 -104	54 -110	+135	-160
Kalshi	+3.5	54.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -113	54 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Southern Miss spread	Total (over)	Southern Miss ML	UConn ML
TOM	+3 -104	54 -110	+135	-160
Kalshi	+3.5	54.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
BetMGM	+3 -105	54.5 -108	+140	-165
BetOnline.ag	+3 -113	54 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+3.5 -115	54.5 -113	+138	-175
BetUS	+3 -115	54 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 -110	54 -110	+130	-150
DraftKings	+3.5 -118	55.5 -102	+140	-166
FanDuel	+3.5 -110	54.5 -110	+140	-170
LowVig.ag	+3 -109	54 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	54 -110	+132	-169

Marked: best for Southern Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +3.0 · -104 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Southern Miss to win · +135 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Southern Miss +3.0 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 28% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.5, only $7 available; Under 54.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUConn by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UConn and Southern Miss's last game
FPI	-6.0	-185
Sagarin	+3.5	+146
Massey	-2.0	-123
Market (9 books)	+3.0	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+135	+123	+2.3%
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +3.0	-104	-113	+2.2%
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State GamecocksGeorgia Southern at Jacksonville State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

Over 52.5

should be 53.6 · getting 1.1 pts

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 52.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Jacksonville State by 4, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Jacksonville State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 4TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia Southern and Jacksonville State's last game

FPI

Jacksonville State by 13 pts our side

Sagarin

Jacksonville State by 3.50.5 pts our side

Massey

Jacksonville State by 22 pts our side

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 3.50.6 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Georgia Southern. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Georgia Southern's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

59.87.3 pts over the market

Massey

52.7on the market

Nasty Number

56.23.7 pts over the market

Over 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-4 -110	52.5 -110	-180	+150
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	52.5 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Jacksonville State spread	Total (over)	Jacksonville State ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	-4 -110	52.5 -110	-180	+150
BetMGM	-4 -110	52.5 -110	-190	+160
BetOnline.ag	-4 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	53.5 -114	-175	+140
BetUS	-4 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-4 -110	52.5 -110	-185	+160
DraftKings	-3.5 -120	53.5 -112	-185	+154
FanDuel	-4.5 -108	53.5 -110	-192	+158
LowVig.ag	-4 -106	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	53 -110	-200	+154

Marked: best for Georgia Southern, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +4.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Georgia Southern to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 53. That's 3.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Georgia Southern, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia Southern and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI	-1.0	-111
Sagarin	-3.5	-144
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (9 books)	-4.0	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	56.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Southern Eagles +4.0	-110	-117	+1.6%
Moneyline	Georgia Southern Eagles ML	+150	+143	+1.1%
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Jacksonville State Gamecocks since 09-13 13:40.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.9 consensus.

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

Under 59

should be 57.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 58

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says LSU by 3, the Nasty Number says LSU by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →

Market

LSU by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game

FPI

LSU by 5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Ole Miss by 2.5

Nasty Number

LSU by 20.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from LSU by 2.5 to LSU by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

51.67.4 pts under the market

Massey

56.42.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

545 pts under the market

Under 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	LSU ML
TOM	+3 -115	59 -110	+130	-155
Kalshi	+2.5	58.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -102	59 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Ole Miss spread	Total (over)	Ole Miss ML	LSU ML
TOM	+3 -115	59 -110	+130	-155
Kalshi	+2.5	58.5 -112 51¢	+129 42¢	-155 59¢
BetMGM	+3 -105	58.5 -110	+130	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3 -102	59 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+3 -112	58.5 -109	+123	-155
BetUS	+3 +100	59 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 +100	58.5 -110	+140	-165
Caesars	+3 -106	58.5 -112	+131	-154
DraftKings	+3 -105	58.5 -112	+130	-155
FanDuel	+3.5 -118	58.5 -104	+128	-154
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+128	-164

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +3.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ole Miss to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.0 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward LSU). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Ole Miss Rebels +2.5, only $113 available; Under 58.5, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen LSU and Ole Miss's last game
FPI	+5.0	+169
Sagarin	PK	+101
Massey	-2.5	-129
Market (9 books)	+3.0	+136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	54.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Ole Miss Rebels ML	+130	+125	+0.9%
Spread	Ole Miss Rebels +3.0	-115	-111	-0.8%
Total	Under 59.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.

Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati BearcatsMiami (OH) at Cincinnati

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Cincinnati -14.5

should be Cincinnati -15 · getting 0.5 pts

Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Cincinnati by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Cincinnati by 15. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Miami (OH) than the bookmore Cincinnati →

Market

Cincinnati by 14.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game

FPI

Cincinnati by 21.57 pts our side

Sagarin

Cincinnati by 16.52.1 pts our side

Massey

Cincinnati by 3.511.2 pts against us

Nasty Number

Cincinnati by 150.4 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Cincinnati. Massey at Cincinnati by 3.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.71.8 pts under the market

Massey

51.71.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.20.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	50.5 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	50.5 -120	—	—

All 12 books

	Cincinnati spread	Total (over)	Cincinnati ML	Miami (OH) ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	50.5 -120	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	50.5 -118	-700	+525
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	50.5 -120	—	—
BetRivers	-14.5 -113	50.5 -112	-835	+525
BetUS	-14.5 -110	50.5 -120	—	—
Bovada	-14.5 -110	51 -110	-700	+475
Caesars	-14.5 -112	50.5 -118	-750	+500
DraftKings	-14.5 -110	51.5 -105	-675	+490
FanDuel	-14.5 -115	50.5 -115	-820	+550
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -106	50.5 -119	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-15 -110	51 -110	-800	+480

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati -14.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Cincinnati to win · -724

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · +100 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati -14.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks +14.5, only $2 available; Under 51.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onCincinnati by 1521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Miami (OH) and Cincinnati's last game
FPI	-21.5	-1274
Sagarin	-16.5	-657
Massey	-3.5	-142
Market (10 books)	-14.5	-534

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	50.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bearcats -14.5	-110	-113	+0.7%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bearcats ML	-724	-532	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	+100	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Temple Owls at Toledo RocketsTemple at Toledo

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:00pm

Temple +5.5

should be Temple +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3.5

Sniff of Nasty · TempleBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Temple. Market says Toledo by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore Toledo →

Market

Toledo by 5.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game

FPI

Toledo by 6.51.1 pts against us

Sagarin

Toledo by 32.3 pts our side

Massey

Toledo by 2.53 pts our side

Nasty Number

Toledo by 50.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Temple. FPI at Toledo by 6.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.11.1 pts over the market

Massey

52.41.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.21.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Temple ML
TOM	-5.5 -112	51 -110	-210	+170
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	—	-218 67¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -112	51 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Toledo spread	Total (over)	Toledo ML	Temple ML
TOM	-5.5 -112	51 -110	-210	+170
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	—	-218 67¢	—
BetMGM	-5.5 -110	51.5 -102	-210	+175
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -112	51 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-5.5 -114	51.5 -114	-230	+180
BetUS	-5.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	-6 -105	51 -115	-225	+185
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	51.5 -105	-218	+180
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	50.5 -115	-200	+164
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -108	51 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	51.5 -110	-236	+180

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple +5.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Temple to win · +170 at TOM

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 37. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Temple +5.5 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 2.1 away from Temple, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $0 available; Under 51.5, only $0 available; Temple Owls ML, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Temple and Toledo's last game
FPI	-6.5	-202
Sagarin	-3.0	-140
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (9 books)	-5.5	-201

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Temple Owls +5.5	-108	-111	+0.6%
Moneyline	Temple Owls ML	+170	+170	-0.0%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-13 06:03.

TOM matches the consensus.

Western Michigan Broncos at Rice OwlsWestern Michigan at Rice

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

Rice +9.5

should be Rice +9 · getting 0.5 pts · was +10.5

Sniff of Nasty · RiceBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Rice. Market says Western Michigan by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 9. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Rice →

Market

Western Michigan by 9.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game

FPI

Western Michigan by 133.7 pts against us

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 72.6 pts our side

Massey

Rice by 1.511.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 90.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Rice. FPI at Western Michigan by 13 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Rice is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

39.34.2 pts under the market

Massey

45.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

42.31.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	+270	-360
Kalshi	+9.5	43.5 -116 52¢	+313 23¢	-381 78¢
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	+270	-360
Kalshi	+9.5	43.5 -116 52¢	+313 23¢	-381 78¢
BetMGM	+9.5 -108	43.5 -110	+300	-375
BetOnline.ag	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+10 -114	43.5 -113	+320	-435
BetUS	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+10 -110	43.5 -115	+325	-435
DraftKings	+9.5 -108	43.5 -115	+295	-375
FanDuel	+9.5 -110	43.5 -114	+285	-365
LowVig.ag	+9.5 -106	43.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+9.5 -110	43.5 -110	+310	-450

Marked: best for Rice, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +9.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Rice to win · +270 at TOM

We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Rice +9.5 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Rice, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $453 available; Under 43.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +282 here against +325 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Michigan and Rice's last game
FPI	+13.0	+431
Sagarin	+7.0	+209
Massey	-1.5	-118
Market (9 books)	+9.5	+282

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	42.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Rice Owls ML	+270	+262	+0.6%
Spread	Rice Owls +9.5	-110	-112	+0.4%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Rice Owls since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 5.0.

TOM: moneyline +282 here against +325 consensus.

Fresno State Bulldogs at San Jose State SpartansFresno State at San José State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm

Under 50.5

should be 49.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 53.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 50.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San José State too: market says Fresno State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 6, but at -107 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore San José State →

Market

Fresno State by 6.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game

FPI

Fresno State by 81.4 pts against us

Sagarin

Fresno State by 42.4 pts our side

Massey

San José State by 28.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Fresno State by 60.5 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean San José State. FPI at Fresno State by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San José State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Under -112

The Four

SP+ pace

44.16.4 pts under the market

Massey

500.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.13.4 pts under the market

Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	+6.5 -107	50.5 -108	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 -110	50.5 -115	—	—

All 10 books

	San José State spread	Total (over)	San José State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	+6.5 -107	50.5 -108	+200	-250
BetMGM	+6.5 -105	50.5 -108	+200	-235
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 -110	50.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	+6.5 -114	51 -110	+195	-250
BetUS	+6.5 -110	50.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	+215	-260
DraftKings	+6.5 -102	50.5 -115	+205	-250
FanDuel	+6.5 -104	49.5 -112	+202	-250
LowVig.ag	+6.5 -106	50.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	50.5 -110	+214	-285

Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San José State +6.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

San José State to win · +200 at TOM

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30.

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Full detail

We settle onFresno State by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Fresno State and San José State's last game
FPI	+8.0	+233
Sagarin	+4.0	+155
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (9 books)	+6.5	+209

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	San Jose State Spartans ML	+200	+189	+1.2%
Spread	San Jose State Spartans +6.5	-107	-108	+0.3%
Total	Under 50.5	-112	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama JaguarsOhio at South Alabama

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

Ohio +4

should be Ohio +4

Sniff of Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says South Alabama by 4, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 4. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore South Alabama →

Market

South Alabama by 4TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ohio and South Alabama's last game

FPI

South Alabama by 4on the market

Sagarin

South Alabama by 4on the market

Massey

South Alabama by 21.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Alabama by 40 pts off the market

All 3 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 0 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.12.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.93.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.50.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	Ohio ML
TOM	-4 -115	51 -112	-180	+150
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag	-4 -115	51 -112	—	—

All 11 books

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	Ohio ML
TOM	-4 -115	51 -112	-180	+150
Kalshi	-4.5 -107 50¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
BetMGM	-4.5 -105	51.5 -110	-190	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4 -115	51 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-4.5 -113	52.5 -113	-200	+160
BetUS	-4 -115	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	-4 -110	51.5 -115	-185	+160
DraftKings	-4.5 -115	52.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-4.5 -106	51.5 -115	-192	+158
LowVig.ag	-4 -111	51 -110	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4.5 -110	52 -110	-210	+161

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio +4.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Ohio to win · +150 at TOM

We make it 40 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 40 cents fair, a play under 35.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio +4.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 46% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.3 consensus.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Alabama by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ohio and South Alabama's last game
FPI	-4.0	-149
Sagarin	-4.0	-151
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (9 books)	-4.0	-172

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ohio Bobcats +4.0	-105	-110	+1.2%
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	+150	+152	-0.3%
Total	Over 51.0	-112	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread -4.0 here against -4.3 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Wyoming Cowboys at Central Michigan ChippewasWyoming at Central Michigan

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 12:00pm

Under 40

should be 39 · getting 1 pt · was 42.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 40.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Central Michigan by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore Central Michigan →

Market

Central Michigan by 1.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game

FPI

Central Michigan by 10.7 pts against us

Sagarin

Central Michigan by 1.5on the market

Massey

Central Michigan by 20.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Central Michigan by 1.50.1 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Central Michigan. FPI at Central Michigan by 1 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

40TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

36.23.8 pts under the market

Massey

40.40.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.712 mph wind, 57% chance of rain, takes 1.7 points off

Nasty Number

36.63.4 pts under the market

Under 40 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-1.5 -105	40 -110	-118	-102
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	—	-116 52¢	+101 48¢
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -105	40 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-1.5 -105	40 -110	-118	-102
Kalshi	-1.5 -112 51¢	—	-116 52¢	+101 48¢
BetMGM	-1 -110	39.5 -110	-120	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -105	40 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-2 -109	39.5 -110	-129	+104
BetUS	-1.5 -105	40 -110	—	—
Bovada	-1.5 -110	39.5 -115	-120	+100
DraftKings	-1.5 -112	39.5 -110	-120	+100
FanDuel	-1.5 -110	39.5 -112	-118	-102
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -101	40 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	39.5 -110	-123	-103

Marked: best for Central Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan -1.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Central Michigan to win · -118 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49.

Not Nasty

the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 40. Weather takes 1.7 off. That's 3.4 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 40.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 69°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $0 available; Under 40.5, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCentral Michigan by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Wyoming and Central Michigan's last game
FPI	-1.0	-109
Sagarin	-1.5	-120
Massey	-2.0	-123
Market (9 books)	-1.5	-113

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	40.0	36.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Central Michigan Chippewas -1.5	-105	-107	+0.4%
Moneyline	Central Michigan Chippewas ML	-118	-118	-0.0%
Total	Under 40.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 39.7 consensus.

SMU Mustangs at Louisville CardinalsSMU at Louisville

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 59.5

should be 58.8 · getting 0.7 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 59.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more SMU than the bookmore Louisville →

Market

Louisville by 1.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game

FPI

Louisville by 0.51.1 pts against us

Sagarin

Louisville by 1.5on the market

Massey

Louisville by 20.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisville by 1.50 pts off the market

2 of 3 systems lean Louisville. FPI at Louisville by 0.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

54.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

59.20.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

572.5 pts under the market

Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	SMU ML
TOM	-1.5 -105	59.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	59.5 -107 50¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -105	59.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Louisville spread	Total (over)	Louisville ML	SMU ML
TOM	-1.5 -105	59.5 -110	-120	—
Kalshi	-1.5 -107 50¢	59.5 -107 50¢	-116 52¢	-103 49¢
BetMGM	-1.5 -112	59.5 -110	-120	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -105	59.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-2 -114	60 -112	-134	+108
BetUS	-2 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-1 -110	59.5 -110	-115	-105
Caesars	-1.5 -109	59.5 -113	-122	+103
DraftKings	-1.5 -108	59.5 -112	-115	-105
FanDuel	-2.5 -106	59.5 -110	-126	+105
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -101	59.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	60 -110	-123	-103

Marked: best for Louisville, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisville -1.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Louisville to win · -120 at TOM

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49.

Not Nasty

the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.5 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 89°F.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs +1.5, only $429 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen SMU and Louisville's last game
FPI	-0.5	-104
Sagarin	-1.5	-118
Massey	-2.0	-122
Market (10 books)	-1.5	-115

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	57.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisville Cardinals -1.5	-105	-106	+0.3%
Moneyline	Louisville Cardinals ML	-120	-117	-0.6%
Total	Under 59.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Delaware Blue HensCoastal Carolina at Delaware

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:30am

Over 57

should be 57.8 · getting 0.8 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 57.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Delaware by 5, the Nasty Number says Delaware by 5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Coastal Carolina than the bookmore Delaware →

Market

Delaware by 5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game

FPI

Delaware by 8

Sagarin

Delaware by 4

Massey

Delaware by 2

Nasty Number

Delaware by 50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

61.54.5 pts over the market

Massey

57.70.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.62.6 pts over the market

Over 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Delaware spread	Total (over)	Delaware ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-5 -110	57 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	57.5	-208 66¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-5 -110	57 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Delaware spread	Total (over)	Delaware ML	Coastal Carolina ML
TOM	-5 -110	57 -110	-205	+165
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	57.5	-208 66¢	—
BetMGM	-5 -110	57.5 -108	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-5 -110	57 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-5.5 -112	57.5 -113	-210	+165
BetUS	-5 -110	57 -110	—	—
Bovada	-5 -110	57.5 -105	-210	+175
DraftKings	-4.5 -115	57.5 -110	-205	+170
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	57.5 -108	-210	+172
LowVig.ag	-5 -106	57 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5 -110	57.5 -110	-224	+171

Marked: best for the Delaware side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +5.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +165 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33.

Not Nasty

the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 2.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Delaware).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $0 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onDelaware by 530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Coastal Carolina and Delaware's last game
FPI	-8.0	-238
Sagarin	-4.0	-157
Massey	-2.0	-123
Market (9 books)	-5.0	-196

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +5.0	-110	-110	-0.0%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+165	+166	-0.1%
Total	Over 57.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Over 52

should be 52.9 · getting 0.9 pts · was 56.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Arizona State by 6, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 6. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Kansas than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 6TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game

FPI

Arizona State by 6.5

Sagarin

Arizona State by 6

Massey

Arizona State by 2.5

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 60 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 5.5 to Arizona State by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

53.31.3 pts over the market

Massey

59.27.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.24.2 pts over the market

Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-6 -113	52 -110	-240	+190
BetOnline.ag	-5 -115	52 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Kansas ML
TOM	-6 -113	52 -110	-240	+190
BetMGM	-5.5 -112	53.5 -110	-210	+170
BetOnline.ag	-5 -115	52 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-5.5 -110	52.5 -113	-210	+160
BetUS	-5 -115	52 -110	—	—
Bovada	-5.5 -110	53 -110	-210	+175
Caesars	-5.5 -110	52.5 -113	-205	+172
DraftKings	-5.5 -108	52.5 -112	-205	+170
FanDuel	-5.5 -110	52.5 -110	-192	+158
LowVig.ag	-5 -111	52 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	53 -110	-208	+160

Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arizona State -6.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Arizona State to win · -240 at TOM

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 61.

Not Nasty

the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 59. That's 4.2 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -230 here against -179 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game
FPI	-6.5	-195
Sagarin	-6.0	-192
Massey	-2.5	-129
Market (10 books)	-6.0	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	56.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arizona State Sun Devils -6.0	-113	+104	-4.0%
Moneyline	Arizona State Sun Devils ML	-240	-190	-5.1%
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.0.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.3 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.5 consensus; moneyline -230 here against -179 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson TigersNorth Carolina at Clemson

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Under 44.5

should be 44 · getting 0.5 pts

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 44.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Clemson by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more North Carolina than the bookmore Clemson →

Market

Clemson by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game

FPI

Clemson by 1

Sagarin

Clemson by 7.5

Massey

Clemson by 2

Nasty Number

Clemson by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Clemson by 4.5 to Clemson by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

39.74.8 pts under the market

Massey

44.4on the market

Nasty Number

422.5 pts under the market

Under 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	44.5 -110	-168	+138
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 +109 46¢	-175 62¢	+140 40¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -118	44.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	North Carolina ML
TOM	-3.5 -105	44.5 -110	-168	+138
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	45.5 +109 46¢	-175 62¢	+140 40¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -102	44.5 -108	-160	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3 -118	44.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3.5 -108	44.5 -113	-175	+138
Bovada	-3 -120	44 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3 -115	44.5 -113	-162	+137
DraftKings	-3 -115	44.5 -112	-166	+140
FanDuel	-3.5 +100	44.5 -118	-156	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 -114	44.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	44.5 -110	-169	+131

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Carolina +3.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

North Carolina to win · +138 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 44. That's 2.5 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 5.3 toward North Carolina). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $440 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -161 here against -147 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onClemson by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Carolina and Clemson's last game
FPI	-1.0	-114
Sagarin	-7.5	-228
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (9 books)	-3.5	-161

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	42.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Carolina Tar Heels +3.5	-115	-113	-0.4%
Moneyline	North Carolina Tar Heels ML	+138	+141	-0.5%
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.3 toward North Carolina Tar Heels since 09-11 16:01.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.2 consensus; moneyline -161 here against -147 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt CommodoresNC State at Vanderbilt

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:45am

Over 51

should be 52.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2 ptsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vanderbilt by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Vanderbilt by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more NC State than the bookmore Vanderbilt →

Market

Vanderbilt by 3.5TOM, -102

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game

FPI

Vanderbilt by 6.5

Sagarin

Vanderbilt by 3.5

Massey

Vanderbilt by 2.5

Nasty Number

Vanderbilt by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vanderbilt by 4.5 to Vanderbilt by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -107

The Four

SP+ pace

59.98.9 pts over the market

Massey

55.64.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.76.7 pts over the market

Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	NC State ML
TOM	-3.5 -102	51 -107	-162	+132
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	53 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Vanderbilt spread	Total (over)	Vanderbilt ML	NC State ML
TOM	-3.5 -102	51 -107	-162	+132
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	53 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	52.5 -113	-182	+145
BetUS	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -112	52.5 -114	-176	+148
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	52.5 -112	-175	+145
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	52.5 -115	-156	+130
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	53 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	52.5 -110	-194	+150

Marked: best for the Vanderbilt side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

NC State +3.5 · -118 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

NC State to win · +132 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -107 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. That's 6.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward NC State).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 52.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVanderbilt by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen NC State and Vanderbilt's last game
FPI	-6.5	-202
Sagarin	-3.5	-144
Massey	-2.5	-131
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-155

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	57.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	NC State Wolfpack +3.5	-118	-110	-1.7%
Moneyline	NC State Wolfpack ML	+132	+145	-2.2%
Total	Over 51.0	-107	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 52.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Stanford Cardinal at Duke Blue DevilsStanford at Duke

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

Over 51

should be 51.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 50.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 51.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Duke by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Duke →

Market

Duke by 9.5TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Duke's last game

FPI

Duke by 13.5

Sagarin

Duke by 9

Massey

Duke by 3

Nasty Number

Duke by 9.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

52.71.7 pts over the market

Massey

54.53.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

53.62.6 pts over the market

Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-9.5 -108	51 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	51.5	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -108	51.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Duke spread	Total (over)	Duke ML	Stanford ML
TOM	-9.5 -108	51 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	51.5	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
BetMGM	-9.5 -108	51.5 -105	-350	+280
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -108	51.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-9.5 -113	50.5 -114	-385	+280
BetUS	-9.5 -110	51.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	-9.5 -110	51 -115	-370	+285
Caesars	-9.5 -110	51.5 -106	-380	+290
DraftKings	-9.5 -112	51.5 -102	-375	+295
FanDuel	-9.5 -105	51.5 -104	-335	+265
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -104	51.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	51 -110	-400	+285

Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stanford +9.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Stanford to win · +275 at TOM

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 22.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 91°F.

Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +9.5, only $306 available; Over 51.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onDuke by 9.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Duke's last game
FPI	-13.5	-456
Sagarin	-9.0	-261
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (10 books)	-9.5	-335

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	53.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Stanford Cardinal +9.5	-112	-107	-1.2%
Moneyline	Stanford Cardinal ML	+275	+275	-0.0%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina GamecocksMississippi State at South Carolina

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:15pm

Under 58.5

should be 57.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 54.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 58.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Carolina by 3.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 4. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Mississippi State than the bookmore South Carolina →

Market

South Carolina by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game

FPI

South Carolina by 4.5

Sagarin

South Carolina by 5.5

Massey

South Carolina by 2

Nasty Number

South Carolina by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM, Under -108

The Four

SP+ pace

55.43.1 pts under the market

Massey

54.24.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

54.83.7 pts under the market

Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	58.5 -112	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	58.5 -107	—	—

All 12 books

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Mississippi State ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	58.5 -112	-165	+135
Kalshi	-3.5 -103 49¢	58.5 -107 50¢	-167 61¢	+140 40¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -108	58.5 -110	-175	+140
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	58.5 -107	—	—
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	58 -113	-177	+140
BetUS	-3.5 -110	58.5 -105	—	—
Bovada	-3.5 +100	58.5 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3.5 -110	58.5 -110	-173	+146
DraftKings	-3.5 -110	58.5 -112	-170	+142
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	58.5 -110	-176	+146
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -106	58.5 -105	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	58.5 -110	-187	+145

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina -3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · -165 at TOM

We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.

Not Nasty

the Under 58.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 54. That's 3.7 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Mississippi State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +3.5, only $421 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Carolina by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Mississippi State and South Carolina's last game
FPI	-4.5	-165
Sagarin	-5.5	-176
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (10 books)	-3.5	-158

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks -3.5	-110	+107	-4.1%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	-165	-149	-2.5%
Total	Under 58.5	-108	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida Gators at Auburn TigersFlorida at Auburn

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

Under 52.5

should be 50.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 52

Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 52.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 8.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Florida by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Auburn →

Market

Florida by 2.5TOM, -103

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Florida by 1

Massey

Auburn by 2.5

Nasty Number

Florida by 20.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

41.111.4 pts under the market

Massey

47.25.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.28.3 pts under the market

Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Florida ML
TOM	+2.5 -103	52.5 -110	+118	-138
Kalshi	+2.5	52.5 -116 52¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	52.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Auburn spread	Total (over)	Auburn ML	Florida ML
TOM	+2.5 -103	52.5 -110	+118	-138
Kalshi	+2.5	52.5 -116 52¢	+118 44¢	-143 57¢
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	—	+115	-140
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -103	52.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	53.5 -110	+116	-143
BetUS	+2.5 -105	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+2.5 -105	53 -105	+115	-135
Caesars	+2.5 -106	52.5 -114	+118	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -108	52.5 -115	+114	-135
FanDuel	+2.5 -102	52.5 -112	+118	-142
LowVig.ag	+2.5 +101	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -110	53.5 -110	+119	-153

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Auburn +2.5 · -103 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Auburn to win · +118 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. That's 8.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers +2.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Florida and Auburn's last game
FPI	PK	-102
Sagarin	+1.0	+110
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (10 books)	+2.5	+123

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	44.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Auburn Tigers +2.5	-103	+102	-1.2%
Moneyline	Auburn Tigers ML	+118	+123	-1.0%
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Colorado Buffaloes at Northwestern WildcatsColorado at Northwestern

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

Under 49

should be 46.7 · getting 2.3 pts · was 45.5

Sniff of Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 49.0. 15 mph wind and 60% chance of rain, worth about 2.8 off the total. The market's total is 49; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Northwestern by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Northwestern by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Northwestern →

Market

Northwestern by 4.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Colorado's last game

FPI

a pick'em

Sagarin

Northwestern by 10

Nasty Number

Northwestern by 4.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Northwestern by 3.5 to Northwestern by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

445 pts under the market

Weather

-2.815 mph wind, 60% chance of rain, takes 2.8 points off

Nasty Number

41.27.8 pts under the market

Under 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Colorado ML
TOM	-4.5 -105	49 -110	-185	+155
Kalshi	-3.5	48.5	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	48.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Northwestern spread	Total (over)	Northwestern ML	Colorado ML
TOM	-4.5 -105	49 -110	-185	+155
Kalshi	-3.5	48.5	-182 63¢	+152 38¢
BetMGM	-4 -108	48.5 -110	-185	+155
BetOnline.ag	-4.5 -105	48.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3.5 -114	48 -110	-190	+150
BetUS	-4.5 -105	48.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-4.5 -110	48.5 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-4.5 -103	48.5 -113	-182	+153
DraftKings	-4 -110	48.5 -112	-185	+154
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-178	+146
LowVig.ag	-4.5 -101	48.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-4 -110	48.5 -110	-206	+159

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern -4.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Northwestern to win · -185 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58.

Not Nasty

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 44. Weather takes 2.8 off. That's 7.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Northwestern).

Kalshi thin: Northwestern Wildcats -3.5, only $2 available; Over 48.5, only $315 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorthwestern by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Colorado's last game
FPI	PK	-102
Sagarin	-10.0	-302
Massey	rates Colorado and Northwestern on different scales
Market (10 books)	-4.5	-177

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	41.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats -4.5	-105	+107	-2.8%
Moneyline	Northwestern Wildcats ML	-185	-165	-2.7%
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-127	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 3.0.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.2 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.

Only 2 models could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin CajunsUAB at Louisiana

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm

Over 56

should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 pts · was 57.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.5 ptsBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 8.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UAB than the bookmore Louisiana →

Market

Louisiana by 7.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game

FPI

Louisiana by 11

Sagarin

Louisiana by 11

Massey

Louisiana by 2.5

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 8.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Louisiana by 8.5 to Louisiana by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

66.510.5 pts over the market

Massey

61.35.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

63.97.9 pts over the market

Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	UAB ML
TOM	-7.5 -115	56 -110	-315	+240
Kalshi	-7.5 -103 49¢	56.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -115	56 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	UAB ML
TOM	-7.5 -115	56 -110	-315	+240
Kalshi	-7.5 -103 49¢	56.5 -116 52¢	-322 75¢	—
BetMGM	-7.5 -108	56.5 -110	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-8.5 -112	56.5 -113	-345	+260
BetUS	-7.5 -115	56 -110	—	—
Bovada	-7.5 -105	56.5 -110	-310	+255
DraftKings	-7.5 -110	56.5 -112	-310	+250
FanDuel	-7.5 -114	56.5 -114	-330	+260
LowVig.ag	-7.5 -111	56 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-8 -110	56.5 -110	-330	+242

Marked: best for the Louisiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana -7.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Louisiana to win · -315 at TOM

We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 67.

Not Nasty

the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 61. That's 7.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $43 available; UAB Blazers ML, only $345 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -301 here against -271 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 8.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UAB and Louisiana's last game
FPI	-11.0	-335
Sagarin	-11.0	-324
Massey	-2.5	-130
Market (9 books)	-7.5	-301

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	63.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -7.5	-115	+105	-4.8%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	-315	-249	-4.6%
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-128	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UAB Blazers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.3 consensus; moneyline -301 here against -271 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

James Madison Dukes at San Diego State AztecsJames Madison at San Diego State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pm

Over 46.5

should be 47.4 · getting 0.9 pts · was 47

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says San Diego State by 2, the Nasty Number says San Diego State by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore San Diego State →

Market

San Diego State by 2TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen James Madison and San Diego State's last game

FPI

San Diego State by 1

Sagarin

San Diego State by 2

Massey

San Diego State by 1.5

Nasty Number

San Diego State by 20.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from a pick'em to San Diego State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

49.22.7 pts over the market

Massey

525.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.64.1 pts over the market

Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	James Madison ML
TOM	-2 -115	46.5 -110	-135	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2 -115	46.5 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	James Madison ML
TOM	-2 -115	46.5 -110	-135	+115
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	46.5 -110	-135	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-2 -110	46.5 -113	-132	+106
BetUS	-2 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-2.5 -115	46.5 -110	-135	+115
DraftKings	-2.5 -108	46.5 -110	-122	+102
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	46.5 -110	-142	+118
LowVig.ag	-2 -111	46.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	46.5 -110	-136	+107

Marked: best for the San Diego State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison +2.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

James Madison to win · +115 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. That's 4.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward San Diego State).

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSan Diego State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen James Madison and San Diego State's last game
FPI	-1.0	-111
Sagarin	-2.0	-125
Massey	-1.5	-119
Market (9 books)	-2.0	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	50.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes +2.0	-105	+106	-2.8%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	+115	+122	-1.6%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward San Diego State Aztecs since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA BruinsPurdue at UCLA

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm

Over 53

should be 53.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was 52.5

Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 53.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 1.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 15.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore UCLA →

Market

UCLA by 15.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game

FPI

UCLA by 9.5

Sagarin

UCLA by 11

Massey

UCLA by 3

Nasty Number

UCLA by 141.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UCLA by 14 to UCLA by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

54.61.6 pts over the market

Massey

54.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.61.6 pts over the market

Over 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 1.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-15.5 -105	53 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -116 52¢	-660 86¢	+490 16¢
BetOnline.ag	-15.5 -105	53 -105	—	—

All 12 books

	UCLA spread	Total (over)	UCLA ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-15.5 -105	53 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	52.5 -116 52¢	-660 86¢	+490 16¢
BetMGM	-14.5 -105	52.5 -108	-700	+525
BetOnline.ag	-15.5 -105	53 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-14.5 -113	52.5 -113	-770	+500
BetUS	-15.5 -105	53 -105	—	—
Bovada	-14.5 -105	53 -110	-750	+500
Caesars	-14.5 -110	52.5 -115	-800	+525
DraftKings	-14.5 -110	52.5 -108	-675	+490
FanDuel	-14.5 -106	52.5 -110	-720	+500
LowVig.ag	-15.5 -101	53 -103	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	-725	+460

Marked: best for the UCLA side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +15.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Purdue to win · +500

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 53.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 55. That's 1.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -12.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward UCLA). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +14.5, only $7 available; Under 52.5, only $234 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.8 consensus.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUCLA by 1430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Purdue and UCLA's last game
FPI	-9.5	-285
Sagarin	-11.0	-336
Massey	-3.0	-139
Market (10 books)	-15.5	-527

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Purdue Boilermakers +15.5	-115	-107	-1.8%
Moneyline	Purdue Boilermakers ML	+500	+460	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.0	-105	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread -15.5 here against -14.8 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Akron Zips at Minnesota Golden GophersAkron at Minnesota

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Minnesota by 24.5, our data says Minnesota by 22

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Minnesota by 24.5.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Minnesota →

Market

Minnesota by 24.5TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game

FPI

Minnesota by 16.5

Sagarin

Minnesota by 25.5

Massey

Minnesota by 3.5

Nasty Number

Minnesota by 222.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Minnesota by 26.5 to Minnesota by 24.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

40.38.7 pts under the market

Massey

49on the market

Nasty Number

44.74.3 pts under the market

Under 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Akron ML
TOM	-24.5 -108	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	49.5 -107 50¢	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
BetOnline.ag	-24.5 -108	49 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Akron ML
TOM	-24.5 -108	49 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	49.5 -107 50¢	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
BetMGM	-24.5 -108	49.5 -105	-3000	+1650
BetOnline.ag	-24.5 -108	49 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-25.5 -112	48.5 -112	—	—
BetUS	-24.5 -108	49 -110	—	—
Bovada	-24 -115	49 -120	—	+1200
DraftKings	-24.5 -108	48.5 -115	—	+1500
FanDuel	-24.5 -115	49.5 -110	—	+1600
LowVig.ag	-24.5 -104	49 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-24.5 -110	49 -110	-3030	+980

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +24.5 · -112 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Akron to win · +1548

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 49. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 66°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -27.5, now -24.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Akron).

Kalshi thin: Under 49.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMinnesota by 2230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Akron and Minnesota's last game
FPI	-16.5	-661
Sagarin	-25.5	-2374
Massey	-3.5	-143
Market (9 books)	-24.5	-1401

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	44.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +24.5	-112	+107	-4.6%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+1548	+1396	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.0	-110	-114	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Akron Zips since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Georgia Bulldogs at Arkansas RazorbacksGeorgia at Arkansas

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Over 54.5

should be 56.2 · getting 1.7 pts · was 52.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 25.5.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Arkansas →

Market

Georgia by 25.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game

FPI

Georgia by 26

Sagarin

Georgia by 17

Massey

Arkansas by 1

Nasty Number

Georgia by 232.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 26 to Georgia by 25.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

62.17.6 pts over the market

Massey

58.13.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

60.15.6 pts over the market

Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Georgia ML
TOM	+25.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	+1775 5¢	-2580 96¢
BetOnline.ag	+25.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Arkansas spread	Total (over)	Arkansas ML	Georgia ML
TOM	+25.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	54.5 -107 50¢	+1775 5¢	-2580 96¢
BetMGM	+25 -112	54.5 -110	+1550	-3000
BetOnline.ag	+25.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+25 -113	54 -113	+1400	—
BetUS	+25.5 -110	55 -110	—	—
Bovada	+24.5 -105	54 -120	+1100	—
Caesars	+25.5 -114	54.5 -109	+1300	—
DraftKings	+24.5 -108	54.5 -110	+1700	—
FanDuel	+24.5 -110	54.5 -110	+1400	—
LowVig.ag	+25.5 -106	54.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+24.5 -110	54.5 -110	+1006	—

Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +25.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Arkansas to win · +1400

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 58. That's 5.6 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +25.0 (the market moved 7.5 toward Georgia). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $408 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +25.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 2330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia and Arkansas's last game
FPI	+26.0	+2518
Sagarin	+17.0	+679
Massey	-1.0	-112
Market (10 books)	+25.5	+1382

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +25.5	-110	+108	-4.3%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+1400	+1559	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.5	-110	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 7.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-11 16:01; total has moved up 2.0.

TOM: spread +25.5 here against +25.0 consensus.

The line is +25.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Bowling Green Falcons at Iowa State CyclonesBowling Green at Iowa State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Under 44.5

should be 42.9 · getting 1.6 pts · was 47.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa State by 23.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Iowa State →

Market

Iowa State by 23.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game

FPI

Iowa State by 22

Sagarin

Iowa State by 22.5

Massey

Iowa State by 4

Nasty Number

Iowa State by 230.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Iowa State by 22.5 to Iowa State by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM, Under -108

The Four

SP+ pace

37.17.4 pts under the market

Massey

43.31.2 pts under the market

Weather

-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.25.3 pts under the market

Under 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Iowa State spread	Total (over)	Iowa State ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-23.5 -110	44.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-23.5 -110	45 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Iowa State spread	Total (over)	Iowa State ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-23.5 -110	44.5 -112	—	—
BetMGM	-23.5 -110	45.5 -105	-2500	+1400
BetOnline.ag	-23.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-23 -112	45.5 -110	—	+1100
BetUS	-23.5 -110	45 -110	—	—
Bovada	-24 -105	46 -110	-2500	+1000
Caesars	-23.5 -110	45.5 -108	—	+1300
DraftKings	-23.5 -108	45.5 -105	—	+1500
FanDuel	-23.5 -110	45.5 -105	—	+1400
LowVig.ag	-23.5 -106	45 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-23.5 -110	45.5 -110	-3030	+990

Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green +23.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Bowling Green to win · +1300

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 37 and Massey projects 43. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.3 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 44.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIowa State by 2330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Bowling Green and Iowa State's last game
FPI	-22.0	-1408
Sagarin	-22.5	-1493
Massey	-4.0	-153
Market (10 books)	-23.5	-1274

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	39.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Bowling Green Falcons +23.5	-110	+137	-10.2%
Moneyline	Bowling Green Falcons ML	+1300	+1606	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.5	-108	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 45.4 consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Buffalo Bulls at Penn State Nittany LionsBuffalo at Penn State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Under 48

should be 47.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 47.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Penn State by 39.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Penn State →

Market

Penn State by 39.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Buffalo and Penn State's last game

FPI

Penn State by 33

Sagarin

Penn State by 36

Massey

Penn State by 4.5

Nasty Number

Penn State by 37.51.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

42.95.1 pts under the market

Massey

47.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.12.9 pts under the market

Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-39.5 -113	48 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-38.5 -110	47.5 -105	—	—

All 10 books

	Penn State spread	Total (over)	Penn State ML	Buffalo ML
TOM	-39.5 -113	48 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-39.5 -108	47.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-38.5 -110	47.5 -105	—	—
BetRivers	-39.5 -112	47.5 -114	—	—
BetUS	-40 -110	47 -110	—	—
Bovada	-38.5 -110	47.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-38.5 -109	47.5 -107	—	—
DraftKings	-38.5 -110	47.5 -105	—	—
FanDuel	-39.5 -110	47.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-38.5 -106	47.5 -103	—	—

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +39.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 47. That's 2.9 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened -39.5, now -39.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Buffalo).

TOM: spread -39.5 here against -39.0 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPenn State by 37.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Buffalo and Penn State's last game
FPI	-33.0	—
Sagarin	-36.0	—
Massey	-4.5	-162
Market (9 books)	-39.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	45.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Buffalo Bulls +39.5	-107	+132	-8.5%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-13 13:40.

TOM: spread -39.5 here against -39.0 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Tulane Green Wave at Kansas State WildcatsTulane at Kansas State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Over 49

should be 49.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 50.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas State by 20.

The spread

← more Tulane than the bookmore Kansas State →

Market

Kansas State by 20TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game

FPI

Kansas State by 14

Sagarin

Kansas State by 16.5

Massey

Kansas State by 3

Nasty Number

Kansas State by 181.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kansas State by 19 to Kansas State by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

51.32.3 pts over the market

Massey

512 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.12.1 pts over the market

Over 49 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-20 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-19.5 -115	49 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Kansas State spread	Total (over)	Kansas State ML	Tulane ML
TOM	-20 -110	49 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-19.5 -110	49.5 -108	-1400	+950
BetOnline.ag	-19.5 -115	49 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-20.5 -112	49.5 -113	-2500	+950
BetUS	-19.5 -115	49 -110	—	—
Bovada	-20.5 -110	49.5 -115	-1400	+750
Caesars	-19.5 -115	49.5 -110	-1700	+950
DraftKings	-20.5 -105	49.5 -110	-1800	+1000
FanDuel	-19.5 -112	49.5 -106	-1800	+980
LowVig.ag	-19.5 -111	49 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-20 -110	49.5 -110	-1683	+776

Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulane +20.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Tulane to win · +950

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 43% chance of rain.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas State by 1830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulane and Kansas State's last game
FPI	-14.0	-465
Sagarin	-16.5	-637
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (10 books)	-20.0	-944

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tulane Green Wave +20.0	-110	+107	-4.0%
Moneyline	Tulane Green Wave ML	+950	+804	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kent State Golden Flashes at Ohio State BuckeyesKent State at Ohio State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

Under 58.5

should be 56.2 · getting 2.3 pts · was 56.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 52.5.

The spread

← more Kent State than the bookmore Ohio State →

Market

Ohio State by 52.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game

FPI

Ohio State by 54

Sagarin

Ohio State by 49

Massey

Ohio State by 5

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 51.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

508.5 pts under the market

Massey

51.47.1 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.77.8 pts under the market

Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-52.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-52.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Ohio State spread	Total (over)	Ohio State ML	Kent State ML
TOM	-52.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-52 -105	57.5 -115	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-52.5 -115	58.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-52.5 -108	58.5 -112	—	—
BetUS	-53.5 -110	58.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	-52.5 -110	58.5 -112	—	—
DraftKings	-52.5 -112	58.5 -115	—	—
FanDuel	-52.5 -105	57.5 -118	—	—
LowVig.ag	-52.5 -111	58.5 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kent State +52.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 58.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. That's 7.8 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 51.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kent State and Ohio State's last game
FPI	-54.0	—
Sagarin	-49.0	—
Massey	-5.0	-169
Market (8 books)	-52.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.5	50.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kent State Golden Flashes +52.5	-105	-169	+11.6%
Total	Under 58.5	-110	-126	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.2 consensus.

The line is -52.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Texas Mean Green at Texas State BobcatsNorth Texas at Texas State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Texas State by 3, our data says Texas State by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas State by 3, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Texas State →

Market

Texas State by 3TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game

FPI

North Texas by 7

Sagarin

Texas State by 1

Massey

Texas State by 1.5

Nasty Number

Texas State by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

63TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

76.713.7 pts over the market

Massey

67.54.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

72.19.1 pts over the market

Over 63 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	North Texas ML
TOM	-3 -110	63 -110	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	63 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Texas State spread	Total (over)	Texas State ML	North Texas ML
TOM	-3 -110	63 -110	-150	+125
BetMGM	-3 -108	63.5 -105	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -110	63 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-3 -107	63.5 -110	-152	+120
BetUS	-3 -110	63 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3 -105	63.5 -105	-150	+130
DraftKings	-3 -105	63.5 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-3.5 +104	63.5 -110	-154	+128
LowVig.ag	-3 -106	63 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	63 -110	-155	+122

Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas +3.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

North Texas to win · +125 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39.

Not Nasty

the Over 63.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 77 and Massey projects 68. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Texas State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 63.0 here against 63.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Texas and Texas State's last game
FPI	+7.0	+208
Sagarin	-1.0	-111
Massey	-1.5	-115
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	63.0	72.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Texas Mean Green +3.0	-110	-106	-1.0%
Moneyline	North Texas Mean Green ML	+125	+131	-1.2%
Total	Over 63.0	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: total 63.0 here against 63.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at Wisconsin BadgersEastern Michigan at Wisconsin

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:30am

Under 45.5

should be 43.7 · getting 1.8 pts · was 47.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 24.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Wisconsin →

Market

Wisconsin by 24TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game

FPI

Wisconsin by 22.5

Sagarin

Wisconsin by 28

Massey

Wisconsin by 3.5

Nasty Number

Wisconsin by 23.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Wisconsin by 24.5 to Wisconsin by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

38.17.4 pts under the market

Massey

42.62.9 pts under the market

Weather

-1.067% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

39.46.1 pts under the market

Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-24 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	45.5 -112 51¢	-2580 96¢	+1464 6¢
BetOnline.ag	-24.5 -110	46 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-24 -110	45.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	45.5 -112 51¢	-2580 96¢	+1464 6¢
BetMGM	-24 -112	45.5 -110	-3000	+1600
BetOnline.ag	-24.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-24 -115	46 -113	—	+1400
BetUS	-24.5 -110	46 -110	—	—
Bovada	-23.5 -115	46 -105	-2800	+1100
Caesars	-24.5 -109	45.5 -120	—	+1300
DraftKings	-24.5 -105	45.5 -110	—	+1500
FanDuel	-23.5 -114	45.5 -115	—	+1600
LowVig.ag	-24.5 -106	46 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-24.5 -110	46 -110	—	+1050

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eastern Michigan +24.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Eastern Michigan to win · +1448

We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 43. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.1 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 45.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWisconsin by 23.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Eastern Michigan and Wisconsin's last game
FPI	-22.5	-1512
Sagarin	-28.0	-3388
Massey	-3.5	-144
Market (10 books)	-24.0	-1396

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	39.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Eastern Michigan Eagles +24.0	-110	+137	-10.1%
Moneyline	Eastern Michigan Eagles ML	+1448	+1728	priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-110	-120	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Florida State Seminoles at Alabama Crimson TideFlorida State at Alabama

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Alabama by 20.5, our data says Alabama by 19

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Alabama by 20.5.

The spread

← more Florida State than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Alabama by 20.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Alabama's last game

FPI

Alabama by 17.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 14

Massey

Alabama by 3.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 191.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 20 to Alabama by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

44.84.7 pts under the market

Massey

522.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

48.41.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-20.5 -112	49.5 -115	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -110	49.5 -115	—	—

All 11 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Florida State ML
TOM	-20.5 -112	49.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-20.5 -108	49.5 -108	-1400	+950
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -110	49.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-20.5 -110	49.5 -110	-1667	+800
BetUS	-20.5 -110	49 -110	—	—
Bovada	-20.5 -110	49 -110	-1500	+775
Caesars	-20.5 -108	49.5 -110	-1450	+850
DraftKings	-20.5 -112	49.5 -110	-1650	+950
FanDuel	-20.5 -106	49.5 -110	-1700	+890
LowVig.ag	-20.5 -106	49.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-21 -110	49.5 -110	-1587	+740

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +20.5 · -108 at TOM

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Florida State to win · +850

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 96°F.

Across the books: opened -17.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Alabama).

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 1921% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Alabama's last game
FPI	-17.5	-762
Sagarin	-14.0	-473
Massey	-3.5	-142
Market (10 books)	-20.5	-888

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	48.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Florida State Seminoles +20.5	-108	+115	-5.5%
Moneyline	Florida State Seminoles ML	+850	+917	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-11 16:01; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kentucky Wildcats at Texas A&M AggiesKentucky at Texas A&M

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Texas A&M by 17, our data says Texas A&M by 16

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas A&M by 17.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore Texas A&M →

Market

Texas A&M by 17TOM, -118

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game

FPI

Texas A&M by 21

Sagarin

Texas A&M by 13

Massey

Texas A&M by 3

Nasty Number

Texas A&M by 160.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas A&M by 16 to Texas A&M by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.2on the market

Massey

51.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.90.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Kentucky ML
TOM	-17 -118	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5	49.5 -112 51¢	-788 88¢	+625 13¢
BetOnline.ag	-17 -118	49.5 -115	—	—

All 12 books

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Kentucky ML
TOM	-17 -118	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-16.5	49.5 -112 51¢	-788 88¢	+625 13¢
BetMGM	-17 -108	49.5 -110	-800	+600
BetOnline.ag	-17 -118	49.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-16.5 -114	49 -110	-910	+550
BetUS	-17 -120	49.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	-17 -105	49.5 -110	-850	+550
Caesars	-17 -113	49.5 -114	—	—
DraftKings	-16.5 -118	49.5 -110	-850	+575
FanDuel	-16.5 -110	48.5 -115	-950	+610
LowVig.ag	-17 -114	49.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-17 -110	49.5 -110	-1000	+560

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +17.0 · -102 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Kentucky to win · +575

We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -17.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M).

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -16.5, only $372 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexas A&M by 1621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kentucky and Texas A&M's last game
FPI	-21.0	-1198
Sagarin	-13.0	-426
Massey	-3.0	-139
Market (10 books)	-17.0	-605

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	50.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +17.0	-102	+110	-2.9%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+575	+623	priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-12 20:24; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTEP Miners at Michigan WolverinesUTEP at Michigan

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Under 48

should be 47.1 · getting 0.9 pts · was 48.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Michigan by 35.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore Michigan →

Market

Michigan by 35.5TOM, -105

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game

FPI

Michigan by 34

Sagarin

Michigan by 36.5

Massey

Michigan by 4.5

Nasty Number

Michigan by 350.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Michigan by 36.5 to Michigan by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

44.63.4 pts under the market

Massey

471 pts under the market

Weather

-2.013 mph wind, 53% chance of rain, takes 2 points off

Nasty Number

43.84.2 pts under the market

Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	UTEP ML
TOM	-35.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	48.5 -116 52¢	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35.5 -105	48 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Michigan spread	Total (over)	Michigan ML	UTEP ML
TOM	-35.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	48.5 -116 52¢	—	—
BetMGM	-35.5 -108	48.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-35.5 -110	49 -112	—	—
BetUS	-35.5 -105	48 -110	—	—
Bovada	-35 -105	48.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -102	48.5 -112	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-35.5 -101	48 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTEP +35.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 2 off. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2 for it.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 3521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UTEP and Michigan's last game
FPI	-34.0	—
Sagarin	-36.5	—
Massey	-4.5	-160
Market (8 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	43.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTEP Miners +35.5	-115	+146	-12.8%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

USC Trojans at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsUSC at Rutgers

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

Over 59.5

should be 60.3 · getting 0.8 pts · was 55.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 24.

The spread

← more USC than the bookmore Rutgers →

Market

USC by 24TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game

FPI

USC by 23.5

Sagarin

USC by 17

Massey

Rutgers by 0.5

Nasty Number

USC by 222.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 24.5 to USC by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

65.25.7 pts over the market

Massey

59.3on the market

Nasty Number

62.22.7 pts over the market

Over 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 3 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Rutgers spread	Total (over)	Rutgers ML	USC ML
TOM	+24 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -126 54¢	—	-2042 95¢
BetOnline.ag	+24 -110	59.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Rutgers spread	Total (over)	Rutgers ML	USC ML
TOM	+24 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	58.5 -126 54¢	—	-2042 95¢
BetMGM	+24.5 -108	59.5 -108	+1550	-3000
BetOnline.ag	+24 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+24.5 -114	59 -110	+1400	—
BetUS	+24 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+24.5 -105	59.5 -110	+1100	—
Caesars	+24.5 -107	59.5 -109	+1400	—
DraftKings	+24.5 -108	59.5 -108	+1300	-2800
FanDuel	+24.5 -104	59.5 -110	+1400	—
LowVig.ag	+24 -106	59.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+25 -110	59.5 -110	+910	-2500

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rutgers +24.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Rutgers to win · +1400

We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 2.7 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F.

Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward USC).

Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $318 available; Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $331 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 2230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen USC and Rutgers's last game
FPI	+23.5	+1703
Sagarin	+17.0	+681
Massey	-0.5	-106
Market (10 books)	+24.0	+1324

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	62.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.0	-110	+112	-5.2%
Moneyline	Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML	+1400	+1341	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward USC Trojans since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Utah State Aggies at Utah UtesUtah State at Utah

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Utah by 27.5, our data says Utah by 27

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Utah by 27.5.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Utah →

Market

Utah by 27.5TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game

FPI

Utah by 24

Sagarin

Utah by 24.5

Massey

Utah by 4

Nasty Number

Utah by 270.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

55.51.5 pts under the market

Massey

57.30.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.40.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-27.5 -114	57 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-28.5 -105	57 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Utah spread	Total (over)	Utah ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-27.5 -114	57 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-28 -115	56.5 -110	—	+2500
BetOnline.ag	-28.5 -105	57 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-28.5 -109	56.5 -112	—	+1800
BetUS	-28 -110	57 -110	—	—
Bovada	-28 -110	57 -110	—	—
Caesars	-28.5 -107	56.5 -114	—	+1800
DraftKings	-28.5 -105	56.5 -115	—	+2200
FanDuel	-28.5 -108	56.5 -108	—	+2400
MyBookie.ag	-28.5 -110	57 -110	—	+1150

Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah State +27.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Utah State to win · +1981

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 57.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -28.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Utah).

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.3 consensus.

TOM: total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUtah by 2721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Utah State and Utah's last game
FPI	-24.0	-1866
Sagarin	-24.5	-1913
Massey	-4.0	-155
Market (9 books)	-27.5	-1935

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	56.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Utah State Aggies +27.5	-106	+145	-10.7%
Moneyline	Utah State Aggies ML	+1981	+2809	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 57.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Utah Utes since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -27.5 here against -28.3 consensus; total 57.0 here against 56.7 consensus.

The line is -27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ball State Cardinals at Liberty FlamesBall State at Liberty

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

No bet

market says Liberty by 14.5, our data says Liberty by 13.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Liberty →

Market

Liberty by 14.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game

FPI

Liberty by 11

Sagarin

Liberty by 12

Massey

Liberty by 2.5

Nasty Number

Liberty by 13.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.73.2 pts over the market

Massey

49.6on the market

Nasty Number

51.11.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	49.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	49.5 -112	—	—

All 10 books

	Liberty spread	Total (over)	Liberty ML	Ball State ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	49.5 -112	—	—
BetMGM	-14.5 -105	49.5 -110	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	49.5 -112	—	—
BetRivers	-14.5 -112	50.5 -110	-1000	+600
BetUS	-14.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-14 -110	50 -110	-650	+450
DraftKings	-14 -115	49.5 -115	-700	+500
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	50.5 -105	-780	+530
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -106	49.5 -110	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-14.5 -110	49.5 -110	-725	+460

Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ball State +14.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Ball State to win · +500

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -13.5, now -14.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Liberty). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLiberty by 13.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Ball State and Liberty's last game
FPI	-11.0	-323
Sagarin	-12.0	-365
Massey	-2.5	-132
Market (9 books)	-14.5	-531

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Ball State Cardinals +14.5	-110	-102	-1.9%
Moneyline	Ball State Cardinals ML	+500	+458	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-112	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Liberty Flames since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 7.7.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at Baylor BearsLouisiana Tech at Baylor

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

Over 53.5

should be 54.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 55.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 18.5.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore Baylor →

Market

Baylor by 18.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game

FPI

Baylor by 17

Sagarin

Baylor by 15.5

Massey

Baylor by 3

Nasty Number

Baylor by 17.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Baylor by 17.5 to Baylor by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

59.45.9 pts over the market

Massey

54.71.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

573.5 pts over the market

Over 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Louisiana Tech ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5	53.5 -112 51¢	-869 89¢	+685 12¢
BetOnline.ag	-18 -105	53.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Baylor spread	Total (over)	Baylor ML	Louisiana Tech ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	53.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5	53.5 -112 51¢	-869 89¢	+685 12¢
BetMGM	-17.5 -108	53.5 -112	-900	+650
BetOnline.ag	-18 -105	53.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-17.5 -113	54 -112	-1000	+600
BetUS	-18 -105	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-17 -110	54 -110	-950	+600
DraftKings	-17.5 -110	53.5 -110	-950	+625
FanDuel	-17.5 -110	54.5 -110	-1100	+680
LowVig.ag	-18 -101	53.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-18 -110	54 -110	-1000	+570

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech +18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Louisiana Tech to win · +625

We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 55. That's 3.5 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 97°F.

Across the books: opened -18.5, now -17.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Louisiana Tech).

Kalshi thin: Baylor Bears -17.5, only $0 available; Under 53.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.7 consensus.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBaylor by 17.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Louisiana Tech and Baylor's last game
FPI	-17.0	-692
Sagarin	-15.5	-584
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (9 books)	-18.5	-653

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	57.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs +18.5	-110	+110	-4.9%
Moneyline	Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML	+625	+753	priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread -18.5 here against -17.7 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at Indiana

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

No bet

market says Indiana by 44, our data says Indiana by 43

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 44.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Indiana →

Market

Indiana by 44TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game

FPI

Indiana by 41.5

Sagarin

Indiana by 40

Massey

Indiana by 4.5

Nasty Number

Indiana by 430.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

57.81.7 pts under the market

Massey

57.81.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

57.81.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Western Kentucky ML
TOM	-44 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	60.5 -112 51¢	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-44 -110	59.5 -115	—	—

All 10 books

	Indiana spread	Total (over)	Indiana ML	Western Kentucky ML
TOM	-44 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	60.5 -112 51¢	—	—
BetMGM	-44.5 -108	60.5 -112	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-44 -110	59.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-44.5 -112	59.5 -113	—	—
BetUS	-44 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-44 -115	59.5 -115	—	—
DraftKings	-44.5 -115	60.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-44.5 -110	61.5 -106	—	—
LowVig.ag	-44 -106	59.5 -114	—	—

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +44.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 64 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

the Under 59.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $15 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.2 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 4321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game
FPI	-41.5	—
Sagarin	-40.0	—
Massey	-4.5	-163
Market (8 books)	-44.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.5	57.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.0	-105	-175	+12.4%
Total	Under 59.5	-105	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.2 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.

The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Appalachian State MountaineersCharlotte at App State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm

Over 51.5

should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says App State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore App State →

Market

App State by 17.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Charlotte and App State's last game

FPI

App State by 15

Sagarin

App State by 16

Massey

App State by 3.5

Nasty Number

App State by 170.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from App State by 20.5 to App State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

57.45.9 pts over the market

Massey

55.94.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.65.1 pts over the market

Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-17.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-19 -115	51.5 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	App State spread	Total (over)	App State ML	Charlotte ML
TOM	-17.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-19.5 -108	51.5 -108	-1200	+850
BetOnline.ag	-19 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-19.5 -113	51 -110	-1430	+750
BetUS	-19 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1400	+750
DraftKings	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1200	+750
FanDuel	-19.5 -110	51.5 -104	-1600	+860
LowVig.ag	-19 -111	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1587	+740

Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +17.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +750

We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 56. That's 5.1 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F, 38% chance of rain.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -19.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onApp State by 1721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Charlotte and App State's last game
FPI	-15.0	-523
Sagarin	-16.0	-623
Massey	-3.5	-147
Market (9 books)	-17.5	-821

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +17.5	-110	+111	-4.9%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+750	+685	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -19.3 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

East Carolina Pirates at Old Dominion MonarchsEast Carolina at Old Dominion

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 5:00pm

No bet

market says Old Dominion by 3, our data says Old Dominion by 2.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 3, the Nasty Number says Old Dominion by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more East Carolina than the bookmore Old Dominion →

Market

Old Dominion by 3TOM, -101

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen East Carolina and Old Dominion's last game

FPI

East Carolina by 0.5

Sagarin

Old Dominion by 1

Massey

Old Dominion by 2

Nasty Number

Old Dominion by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 2.5 to Old Dominion by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.83.2 pts under the market

Massey

52.43.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	East Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -101	49 -110	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	49.5	-143 57¢	+114 45¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	48.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Old Dominion spread	Total (over)	Old Dominion ML	East Carolina ML
TOM	-3 -101	49 -110	-150	+125
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	49.5	-143 57¢	+114 45¢
BetMGM	-3 -102	49.5 -105	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-3 -105	48.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-2.5 -113	49.5 -112	-143	+115
BetUS	-3 -110	48.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-3 +100	49.5 -115	-145	+125
DraftKings	-3 -102	49.5 -110	-142	+120
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	48.5 -115	-138	+115
LowVig.ag	-3 -101	48.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	49.5 -110	-146	+114

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

East Carolina +3.0 · -119 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

East Carolina to win · +125 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates +2.5, only $478 available; Over 49.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -144 here against -128 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOld Dominion by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen East Carolina and Old Dominion's last game
FPI	+0.5	+106
Sagarin	-1.0	-113
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-144

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Carolina Pirates +3.0	-119	-105	-3.0%
Moneyline	East Carolina Pirates ML	+125	+132	-1.3%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: moneyline -144 here against -128 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia State Panthers at UCF KnightsGeorgia State at UCF

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says UCF by 18.5, our data says UCF by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UCF by 18.5.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore UCF →

Market

UCF by 18.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game

FPI

UCF by 16

Sagarin

UCF by 20.5

Massey

UCF by 3

Nasty Number

UCF by 180.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from UCF by 20.5 to UCF by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

53.82.3 pts over the market

Massey

50.60.9 pts under the market

Weather

-1.073% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

51.20.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	51.5 -115	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-18.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	UCF spread	Total (over)	UCF ML	Georgia State ML
TOM	-18.5 -110	51.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-19 -108	51.5 -110	-1200	+850
BetOnline.ag	-18.5 -110	51.5 -110	—	—
BetUS	-18.5 -110	51 -110	—	—
Bovada	-18.5 -110	51 -115	-1300	+725
DraftKings	-18.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1200	+750
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	51.5 -108	-1400	+800
LowVig.ag	-18.5 -106	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-18.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1299	+660

Marked: best for the UCF side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia State +18.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Georgia State to win · +750

We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 12, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -19.5, now -18.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Georgia State).

Full detail

We settle onUCF by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia State and UCF's last game
FPI	-16.0	-605
Sagarin	-20.5	-1089
Massey	-3.0	-137
Market (8 books)	-18.5	-791

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	51.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia State Panthers +18.5	-110	+114	-5.8%
Moneyline	Georgia State Panthers ML	+750	+785	priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-105	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-13 06:03; total has moved up 1.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Nevada Wolf Pack at Middle Tennessee Blue RaidersNevada at Middle Tennessee

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Nevada by 4, our data says Nevada by 4.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 4, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nevada than the bookmore Middle Tennessee →

Market

Nevada by 4TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nevada and Middle Tennessee's last game

FPI

Nevada by 8

Sagarin

Nevada by 5

Massey

Middle Tennessee by 1.5

Nasty Number

Nevada by 4.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nevada by 5 to Nevada by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.51 pts over the market

Massey

483.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.31.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+4 -116	51.5 -110	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
BetOnline.ag	+5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Middle Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Middle Tennessee ML	Nevada ML
TOM	+4 -116	51.5 -110	+140	-170
Kalshi	+3.5	—	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	51.5 -105	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+6.5 -112	50.5 -110	+200	-250
BetUS	+5 -115	51.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+5.5 -110	51 -110	+180	-220
Caesars	+5 -112	51.5 -110	+183	-218
DraftKings	+5.5 -112	51.5 -105	+185	-225
FanDuel	+6.5 -114	51.5 -104	+184	-225
LowVig.ag	+5 -111	51.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	51 -110	+182	-238

Marked: best for the Middle Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada -4.0 · -104 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Nevada to win · -170 at TOM

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57.

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened +6.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Middle Tennessee).

Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +3.5, only $408 available; Over 50.5, only $53 available; Under 50.5, only $46 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +5.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +146 here against +199 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNevada by 4.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nevada and Middle Tennessee's last game
FPI	+8.0	+238
Sagarin	+5.0	+174
Massey	-1.5	-120
Market (10 books)	+4.0	+146

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nevada Wolf Pack -4.0	-104	+104	-2.0%
Moneyline	Nevada Wolf Pack ML	-170	-161	-1.3%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-13 13:40; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +5.5 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +199 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Troy Trojans at Missouri TigersTroy at Missouri

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Missouri by 27, our data says Missouri by 26

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Missouri by 27.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 27TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Troy and Missouri's last game

FPI

Missouri by 23.5

Sagarin

Missouri by 26.5

Massey

Missouri by 3.5

Nasty Number

Missouri by 260.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

50.1on the market

Massey

50.50.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.30.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Troy ML
TOM	-27 -110	50 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
BetOnline.ag	-27 -110	50 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Troy ML
TOM	-27 -110	50 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	-3476 97¢	+2243 4¢
BetMGM	-27 -110	49.5 -110	—	+2000
BetOnline.ag	-27 -110	50 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-27.5 -110	50.5 -113	—	+1800
BetUS	-27 -110	49 -110	—	—
Bovada	-27 -110	49.5 -110	—	+1300
DraftKings	-27.5 -102	49.5 -112	—	+2000
FanDuel	-27.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	+2000
LowVig.ag	-27 -106	50 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-27.5 -110	49.5 -110	—	+1200

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Troy +27.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Troy to win · +2000

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $306 available; Under 49.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 2621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Troy and Missouri's last game
FPI	-23.5	-1665
Sagarin	-26.5	-2778
Massey	-3.5	-146
Market (9 books)	-27.0	-1720

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Troy Trojans +27.0	-110	+144	-11.3%
Moneyline	Troy Trojans ML	+2000	+2575	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

BYU Cougars at Colorado State RamsBYU at Colorado State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says BYU by 18, our data says BYU by 18

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says BYU by 18.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore Colorado State →

Market

BYU by 18TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game

FPI

BYU by 18.5

Sagarin

BYU by 18

Massey

Colorado State by 1

Nasty Number

BYU by 180 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from BYU by 20 to BYU by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

45.37.2 pts under the market

Massey

54.41.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.92.6 pts under the market

Under 52.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	BYU ML
TOM	+18 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+18 -115	52.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	BYU ML
TOM	+18 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+17.5 -108	52.5 -108	+700	-1000
BetOnline.ag	+18 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+17.5 -113	52.5 -110	+575	-1000
BetUS	+18 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+17.5 -115	52 -110	+650	-1100
Caesars	+18 -113	52.5 -108	+675	-1200
DraftKings	+17.5 -110	52.5 -108	+650	-1000
FanDuel	+17.5 -104	52.5 -110	+760	-1300
LowVig.ag	+18 -111	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+18 -110	52 -110	+590	-1099

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

BYU -18.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

BYU to win · -1099

We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +18.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Colorado State).

TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 1821% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen BYU and Colorado State's last game
FPI	+18.5	+852
Sagarin	+18.0	+788
Massey	-1.0	-110
Market (10 books)	+18.0	+690

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	BYU Cougars -18.0	-105	-120	+3.4%
Moneyline	BYU Cougars ML	-1099	-788	priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-13 06:03.

TOM: spread +18.0 here against +17.8 consensus.

The line is +18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Maryland TerrapinsVirginia Tech at Maryland

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Virginia Tech by 3, our data says Virginia Tech by 2

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Maryland →

Market

Virginia Tech by 3TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game

FPI

Virginia Tech by 2.5

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Maryland by 2.5

Nasty Number

Virginia Tech by 20.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.83.7 pts under the market

Massey

55.31.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.60.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+3 -115	53.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	53.5 -107 50¢	—	-155 59¢
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	53.5 -110	—	—

All 12 books

	Maryland spread	Total (over)	Maryland ML	Virginia Tech ML
TOM	+3 -115	53.5 -110	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5	53.5 -107 50¢	—	-155 59¢
BetMGM	+3 -112	53.5 -110	+125	-150
BetOnline.ag	+3 -115	53.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	53.5 -109	+133	-167
BetUS	+3 -115	53.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+3 -110	53.5 -110	+130	-150
Caesars	+3 -113	53.5 -109	+125	-148
DraftKings	+3 -110	53.5 -112	+130	-155
FanDuel	+2.5 -102	53.5 -115	+122	-146
LowVig.ag	+3 -111	53.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+3 -110	53.5 -110	+123	-157

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +3.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Maryland to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 80°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +2.5, only $11 available; Under 53.5, only $359 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +137 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia Tech by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Maryland's last game
FPI	+2.5	+131
Sagarin	PK	-101
Massey	-2.5	-127
Market (10 books)	+3.0	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maryland Terrapins +3.0	-115	-112	-0.7%
Moneyline	Maryland Terrapins ML	+120	+124	-0.9%
Total	Under 53.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Tech Hokies since 09-11 18:32; total has moved up 3.5.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +137 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Michigan State Spartans at Notre Dame Fighting IrishMichigan State at Notre Dame

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Notre Dame by 29, our data says Notre Dame by 27.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 29.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Notre Dame →

Market

Notre Dame by 29TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game

FPI

Notre Dame by 26.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 24

Massey

Notre Dame by 3.5

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 27.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 29.5 to Notre Dame by 29. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

55.22.7 pts over the market

Massey

52.6on the market

Weather

-1.060% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

52.90.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-29 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-29 -115	52.5 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Notre Dame spread	Total (over)	Notre Dame ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-29 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-29 -110	52.5 -105	—	+2500
BetOnline.ag	-29 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-29.5 -113	52.5 -110	—	—
BetUS	-29 -115	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	-30 +100	52 -110	—	—
Caesars	-29.5 -112	52.5 -106	—	—
DraftKings	-29.5 -110	52.5 -105	—	+2200
FanDuel	-29.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	+2400
LowVig.ag	-29 -111	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-29 -110	52.5 -110	—	+1275

Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +29.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Michigan State to win · +2296

We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 27.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Michigan State and Notre Dame's last game
FPI	-26.5	-2750
Sagarin	-24.0	-1786
Massey	-3.5	-143
Market (10 books)	-29.0	-2039

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	52.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +29.0	-105	+128	-7.4%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+2296	+3117	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -29.0 here against -29.3 consensus.

The line is -29.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico Lobos at Oklahoma SoonersNew Mexico at Oklahoma

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm

No bet

market says Oklahoma by 21.5, our data says Oklahoma by 20

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma by 21.5.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Oklahoma by 21.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game

FPI

Oklahoma by 17.5

Sagarin

Oklahoma by 22.5

Massey

Oklahoma by 3

Nasty Number

Oklahoma by 201.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.80.7 pts under the market

Massey

49.93.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.91.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	New Mexico ML
TOM	-21.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 +101 48¢	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
BetOnline.ag	-21.5 -115	47 -115	—	—

All 11 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	New Mexico ML
TOM	-21.5 -115	46.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 +101 48¢	-1684 94¢	+1242 7¢
BetMGM	-22.5 -110	48.5 +100	-2500	+1250
BetOnline.ag	-21.5 -115	47 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-22.5 -109	48 -109	—	+1150
BetUS	-21.5 -115	47 -115	—	—
Bovada	-23.5 -110	48 -110	-2500	+1000
DraftKings	-22.5 -112	47.5 -115	-2400	+1200
FanDuel	-22.5 -110	48.5 -105	-3000	+1200
LowVig.ag	-21.5 -111	47 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-23 -110	48 -110	-2500	+930

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico +21.5 · -105 at TOM

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

New Mexico to win · +1200

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -21.5, now -22.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Oklahoma).

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners -21.5, only $6 available; New Mexico Lobos +21.5, only $26 available; Under 47.5, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -22.3 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma by 2040% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico and Oklahoma's last game
FPI	-17.5	-726
Sagarin	-22.5	-1495
Massey	-3.0	-140
Market (9 books)	-21.5	-1167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico Lobos +21.5	-105	+107	-2.9%
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos ML	+1200	+1008	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -22.3 consensus; total 46.5 here against 47.7 consensus.

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kennesaw State Owls at Tennessee VolunteersKennesaw State at Tennessee

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:45pm

No bet

market says Tennessee by 35.5, our data says Tennessee by 34.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tennessee by 35.5.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Tennessee by 35.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game

FPI

Tennessee by 30.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 30.5

Massey

Tennessee by 4.5

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 34.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tennessee by 34.5 to Tennessee by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

59TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.81.8 pts over the market

Massey

58.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Kennesaw State ML
TOM	-35.5 -110	59 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35.5 -110	60 -110	—	—

All 10 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Kennesaw State ML
TOM	-35.5 -110	59 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-35.5 -108	60.5 -108	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-35.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-35.5 -110	59.5 -110	—	—
BetUS	-35.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
Bovada	-35.5 -110	60 -110	—	—
Caesars	-35.5 -107	59.5 -118	—	—
DraftKings	-35.5 -105	60.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-35.5 -108	60.5 -110	—	—
LowVig.ag	-35.5 -106	60 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +35.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Kennesaw State to win · +5238

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 59.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 60.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 34.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Tennessee's last game
FPI	-30.5	—
Sagarin	-30.5	—
Massey	-4.5	-161
Market (9 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	59.0	59.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +35.5	-110	+137	-10.2%
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+5238	—	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 59.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 59.0 here against 60.1 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at TCU Horned FrogsArkansas State at TCU

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says TCU by 20.5, our data says TCU by 20

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says TCU by 20.5.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore TCU →

Market

TCU by 20.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game

FPI

TCU by 17.5

Sagarin

TCU by 20

Massey

TCU by 3

Nasty Number

TCU by 200.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.90.4 pts over the market

Massey

56.7on the market

Nasty Number

56.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—

All 10 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-20.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—
BetMGM	-20 -110	57.5 -102	-1400	+900
BetOnline.ag	-20.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-20.5 -113	57 -114	-1667	+800
BetUS	-20.5 -110	56.5 -115	—	—
Bovada	-20 -110	57.5 -110	-1400	+750
DraftKings	-20.5 -108	57.5 -108	-1450	+850
FanDuel	-20.5 -110	57.5 -108	-1600	+860
LowVig.ag	-20.5 -106	56.5 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-20.5 -110	57.5 -110	-1299	+660

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas State +20.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Arkansas State to win · +824

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 56.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTCU by 2021% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Arkansas State and TCU's last game
FPI	-17.5	-728
Sagarin	-20.0	-1061
Massey	-3.0	-141
Market (9 books)	-20.5	-839

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	56.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas State Red Wolves +20.5	-110	+125	-8.0%
Moneyline	Arkansas State Red Wolves ML	+824	+1011	priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-115	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.6.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.1 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UTSA Roadrunners at Texas LonghornsUTSA at Texas

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm

Over 58

should be 58.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 57

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas by 30.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Texas →

Market

Texas by 30TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game

FPI

Texas by 36

Sagarin

Texas by 28.5

Massey

Texas by 3.5

Nasty Number

Texas by 29.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58TOM, Over -115

The Four

SP+ pace

62.74.7 pts over the market

Massey

57.30.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

602 pts over the market

Over 58 is a little nasty. Our total is 2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	+3021 3¢
BetOnline.ag	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—

All 11 books

	Texas spread	Total (over)	Texas ML	UTSA ML
TOM	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	—	—	+3021 3¢
BetMGM	-30 -110	58.5 -105	—	+2500
BetOnline.ag	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—
BetRivers	-30.5 -109	57.5 -112	—	+1800
BetUS	-30 -110	58 -115	—	—
Bovada	-30 -110	58 -110	—	—
DraftKings	-29.5 -115	58.5 -105	—	+2000
FanDuel	-30.5 -110	58.5 -105	—	+2400
LowVig.ag	-30 -106	58 -114	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-30 -110	58 -110	—	+1250

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA +30.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

UTSA to win · +2183

We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.0 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 93°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $130 available; Under 57.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 29.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UTSA and Texas's last game
FPI	-36.0	—
Sagarin	-28.5	-3703
Massey	-3.5	-146
Market (9 books)	-30.0	-1961

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	60.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UTSA Roadrunners +30.0	-110	+151	-12.5%
Moneyline	UTSA Roadrunners ML	+2183	+4387	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 58.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Arizona WildcatsNorthern Illinois at Arizona

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pm

Under 49.5

should be 48.7 · getting 0.8 pts · was 52.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona by 34.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Arizona →

Market

Arizona by 34TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game

FPI

Arizona by 26

Sagarin

Arizona by 27.5

Massey

Arizona by 4

Nasty Number

Arizona by 32.51.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 34.5 to Arizona by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM, Under -115

The Four

SP+ pace

47.22.3 pts under the market

Massey

445.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

45.63.9 pts under the market

Under 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Northern Illinois ML
TOM	-34 -115	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -116 52¢	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34 -115	50 -110	—	—

All 11 books

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Northern Illinois ML
TOM	-34 -115	49.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	—	50.5 -116 52¢	—	—
BetMGM	-34.5 -108	49.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-34 -115	50 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-34.5 -112	50.5 -109	—	—
BetUS	-34 -115	50 -110	—	—
Bovada	-34.5 -105	50 -105	—	—
Caesars	-34.5 -109	49.5 -115	—	—
DraftKings	-34.5 -108	49.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-34.5 -110	50.5 -115	—	+2500
LowVig.ag	-34 -111	50 -108	—	—

Marked: best for the Arizona side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +34.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Northern Illinois to win · +4500

We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 44. That's 3.9 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -31.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Arizona).

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $384 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.3 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 32.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Arizona's last game
FPI	-26.0	-2535
Sagarin	-27.5	-3250
Massey	-4.0	-150
Market (9 books)	-34.0	-3305

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	45.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Illinois Huskies +34.0	-105	+140	-9.6%
Moneyline	Northern Illinois Huskies ML	+4500	+7037	priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 49.5	-115	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Arizona Wildcats since 09-13 06:03; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.3 consensus; total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

North Dakota State Bison at Sacramento State HornetsNorth Dakota State at Sacramento State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:30pm

No bet

market says North Dakota State by 28, our data says North Dakota State by 26

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 28.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Sacramento State →

Market

North Dakota State by 28TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen North Dakota State and Sacramento State's last game

FPI

North Dakota State by 23.5

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 19

Massey

Sacramento State by 0.5

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 261.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 27.5 to North Dakota State by 28. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.62.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.90.6 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+28 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	+28 -110	52.5 -110	—	—

All 9 books

	Sacramento State spread	Total (over)	Sacramento State ML	North Dakota State ML
TOM	+28 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
BetMGM	+28 -108	53.5 -108	+2500	—
BetOnline.ag	+28 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
BetRivers	+28.5 -112	53 -113	+1800	—
BetUS	+28 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Bovada	+28 -110	53 -110	—	—
FanDuel	+28.5 -110	52.5 -114	+2200	—
LowVig.ag	+28 -106	52.5 -108	—	—
MyBookie.ag	+28 -110	53 -110	+1200	—

Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +28.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 44 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

Sacramento State to win · +1981

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened +27.5, now +28.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward North Dakota State).

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 2621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen North Dakota State and Sacramento State's last game
FPI	+23.5	+1684
Sagarin	+19.0	+887
Massey	-0.5	-107
Market (8 books)	+28.0	+1873

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Sacramento State Hornets +28.0	-110	+125	-8.0%
Moneyline	Sacramento State Hornets ML	+1981	+2518	priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward North Dakota State Bison since 09-13 13:40; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.8 consensus.

The line is +28.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Montana Grizzlies at Oregon State BeaversMontana at Oregon State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 10:00pm

Montana +9.5

should be Montana +8 · getting 1.5 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 8. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Montana than the bookmore Oregon State →

Market

Oregon State by 9.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oregon State's last game

Sagarin

Oregon State by 54.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 81.4 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Montana. The Nasty Number is 1.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Montana +9.5 · -110

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Montana to win · +280

We make it 29 in 100 to win. The price says 26. That's value. On Kalshi that's 29 cents fair, a play under 25. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Montana loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Montana +9.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 65°F.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 830% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oregon State's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Montana
Sagarin	-5.0	-169
Massey	rates Montana and Oregon State on different scales
Market (1 books)	-9.5	-297

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Montana Grizzlies ML	+280	+239	+3.1%
Spread	Montana Grizzlies +9.5	-110	-122	+2.7%

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Only 1 book has posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.

Mercer Bears at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsMercer at Georgia Tech

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00am

No bet

market says Georgia Tech by 41.5, our data says Georgia Tech by 36

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia Tech by 41.5.

The spread

← more Mercer than the bookmore Georgia Tech →

Market

Georgia Tech by 41.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Georgia Tech's last game

Sagarin

Georgia Tech by 23

Nasty Number

Georgia Tech by 365.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia Tech spread	Total (over)	Georgia Tech ML	Mercer ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Mercer +41.5 · -110

Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 87°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 60.5, only $306 available; Under 60.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Tech by 3630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Georgia Tech's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Mercer
Sagarin	-23.0	-1583
Massey	rates Mercer and Georgia Tech on different scales
Market (1 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Mercer Bears +41.5	-110	-260	+19.8%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Maine Black Bears at Boston College EaglesMaine at Boston College

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pm

No bet

market says Boston College by 39.5, our data says Boston College by 36.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boston College by 39.5.

The spread

← more Maine than the bookmore Boston College →

Market

Boston College by 39.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boston College's last game

Sagarin

Boston College by 29

Nasty Number

Boston College by 36.53.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boston College spread	Total (over)	Boston College ML	Maine ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Maine +39.5 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $306 available; Under 52.5, only $306 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onBoston College by 36.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boston College's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Maine
Sagarin	-29.0	-4151
Massey	rates Maine and Boston College on different scales
Market (1 books)	-39.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Maine Black Bears +39.5	-110	+119	-6.8%

The line is -39.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Illinois Salukis at Illinois Fighting IlliniSouthern Illinois at Illinois

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 1:00pm

No bet

market says Illinois by 41.5, our data says Illinois by 36.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Illinois by 41.5.

The spread

← more Southern Illinois than the bookmore Illinois →

Market

Illinois by 41.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Illinois's last game

Sagarin

Illinois by 25.5

Nasty Number

Illinois by 36.54.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Southern Illinois ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Southern Illinois +41.5 · -110

Covers 71 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 84°F, 30% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

The ratings sit 16 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 36.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Illinois's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Southern Illinois
Sagarin	-25.5	-2216
Massey	rates Southern Illinois and Illinois on different scales
Market (1 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Illinois Salukis +41.5	-110	-245	+18.6%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Duquesne Dukes at Washington State CougarsDuquesne at Washington State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No bet

market says Washington State by 35.5, our data says Washington State by 32.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington State by 35.5.

The spread

← more Duquesne than the bookmore Washington State →

Market

Washington State by 35.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Washington State's last game

Sagarin

Washington State by 26

Nasty Number

Washington State by 32.52.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Duquesne +35.5 · -110

Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onWashington State by 32.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Washington State's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Duquesne
Sagarin	-26.0	-2483
Massey	rates Duquesne and Washington State on different scales
Market (1 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Duquesne Dukes +35.5	-110	+116	-6.1%

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Northern Iowa Panthers at Iowa HawkeyesNorthern Iowa at Iowa

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm

No bet

market says Iowa by 41.5, our data says Iowa by 38.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Iowa by 41.5.

The spread

← more Northern Iowa than the bookmore Iowa →

Market

Iowa by 41.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Iowa's last game

Sagarin

Iowa by 32

Nasty Number

Iowa by 38.52.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Northern Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Northern Iowa +41.5 · -110

Covers 67 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $212 available; Under 48.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onIowa by 38.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Iowa's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Northern Iowa
Sagarin	-32.0	—
Massey	rates Northern Iowa and Iowa on different scales
Market (1 books)	-41.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Northern Iowa Panthers +41.5	-110	-205	+14.8%

The line is -41.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Delaware State Hornets at South Florida BullsDelaware State at South Florida

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says South Florida by 37.5, our data says South Florida by 35

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 37.5.

The spread

← more Delaware State than the bookmore South Florida →

Market

South Florida by 37.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen South Florida's last game

Sagarin

South Florida by 29.5

Nasty Number

South Florida by 352.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Delaware State +37.5 · -110

Covers 43 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 82°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Florida by 3530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen South Florida's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Delaware State
Sagarin	-29.5	-4318
Massey	rates Delaware State and South Florida on different scales
Market (1 books)	-37.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Delaware State Hornets +37.5	-110	+131	-9.1%

The line is -37.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Murray State Racers at Oklahoma State CowboysMurray State at Oklahoma State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No bet

market says Oklahoma State by 57.5, our data says Oklahoma State by 52

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Oklahoma State by 57.5.

The spread

← more Murray State than the bookmore Oklahoma State →

Market

Oklahoma State by 57.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Oklahoma State's last game

Sagarin

Oklahoma State by 39.5

Nasty Number

Oklahoma State by 525.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Murray State +57.5 · -110

Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 86°F, 26% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onOklahoma State by 5230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Oklahoma State's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Murray State
Sagarin	-39.5	—
Massey	rates Murray State and Oklahoma State on different scales
Market (1 books)	-57.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	69.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Murray State Racers +57.5	-110	-260	+19.8%

The line is -57.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Eastern Washington Eagles at Washington HuskiesEastern Washington at Washington

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pm

No bet

market says Washington by 44.5, our data says Washington by 41

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Washington by 44.5.

The spread

← more Eastern Washington than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 44.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Washington's last game

Sagarin

Washington by 33

Nasty Number

Washington by 413.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Eastern Washington ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Eastern Washington +44.5 · -110

Covers 69 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 72°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available; Under 56.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 4130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Washington's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Eastern Washington
Sagarin	-33.0	—
Massey	rates Eastern Washington and Washington on different scales
Market (1 books)	-44.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Eastern Washington Eagles +44.5	-110	-218	+16.2%

The line is -44.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Dakota Fighting Hawks at Nebraska CornhuskersNorth Dakota at Nebraska

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:15pm

No bet

market says Nebraska by 24.5, our data says Nebraska by 23

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 24.5.

The spread

← more North Dakota than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Nebraska by 24.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Nebraska's last game

Sagarin

Nebraska by 20

Nasty Number

Nebraska by 231.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	North Dakota ML
Kalshi	—	—	-2042 95¢	—

North Dakota +24.5 · -110

Covers 45 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

North Dakota to win · +1400

We make it 6 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F, 26% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $319 available; Under 49.5, only $50 available; North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 2330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Nebraska's last game
FPI	doesn't rate North Dakota
Sagarin	-20.0	-1057
Massey	rates North Dakota and Nebraska on different scales
Market (1 books)	-24.5	-1463

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Dakota Fighting Hawks +24.5	-110	+121	-7.1%
Moneyline	North Dakota Fighting Hawks ML	+1400	+1627	priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

East Texas A&M Lions at Tulsa Golden HurricaneEast Texas A&M at Tulsa

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 7:00pm

No bet

market says Tulsa by 42.5, our data says Tulsa by 37.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulsa by 42.5.

The spread

← more East Texas A&M than the bookmore Tulsa →

Market

Tulsa by 42.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Tulsa's last game

Sagarin

Tulsa by 25

Nasty Number

Tulsa by 37.55.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tulsa spread	Total (over)	Tulsa ML	East Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

East Texas A&M +42.5 · -110

Covers 72 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 87°F, 25% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onTulsa by 37.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Tulsa's last game
FPI	doesn't rate East Texas A&M
Sagarin	-25.0	-2146
Massey	rates East Texas A&M and Tulsa on different scales
Market (1 books)	-42.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	East Texas A&M Lions +42.5	-110	-254	+19.4%

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Dakota Coyotes at Boise State BroncosSouth Dakota at Boise State

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 9:00pm

No bet

market says Boise State by 22.5, our data says Boise State by 20

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 22.5.

The spread

← more South Dakota than the bookmore Boise State →

Market

Boise State by 22.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Boise State's last game

Sagarin

Boise State by 13.5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 202.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Dakota +22.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.

Blowout line

South Dakota to win · +1200

We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 71°F.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 2030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Boise State's last game
FPI	doesn't rate South Dakota
Sagarin	-13.5	-458
Massey	rates South Dakota and Boise State on different scales
Market (1 books)	-22.5	-1258

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Dakota Coyotes +22.5	-110	+101	-2.6%
Moneyline	South Dakota Coyotes ML	+1200	+1014	priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stonehill Skyhawks at UMass MinutemenStonehill at Massachusetts

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 2:30pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Stonehill than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Massachusetts by 34.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Stonehill ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 48.5, only $52 available; Under 48.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Massachusetts's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Stonehill
Sagarin	doesn't rate Stonehill
Massey	rates Stonehill and Massachusetts on different scales
Market (1 books)	-34.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Southeastern Louisiana Lions at UL Monroe WarhawksSoutheastern Louisiana at UL Monroe

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:30pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover Southeastern Louisiana Lions, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

	UL Monroe spread	Total (over)	UL Monroe ML	Southeastern Louisiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

Kalshi thin: UL Monroe Warhawks -12.5, only $52 available; Southeastern Louisiana Lions +12.5, only $52 available; Over 47.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UL Monroe's last game
FPI	not an FBS matchup
Sagarin	not an FBS matchup
Massey	not an FBS matchup
Market (1 books)	-12.5	-423

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	—

Southeastern Louisiana Lions is not an FBS team. These rating systems don't cover it, so there's nothing here to compare.

UT Martin Skyhawks at Memphis TigersUT Martin at Memphis

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more UT Martin than the bookmore Memphis →

Market

Memphis by 35.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen UT Martin and Memphis's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 94°F.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen UT Martin and Memphis's last game
FPI	doesn't rate UT Martin
Sagarin	doesn't rate UT Martin
Massey	rates UT Martin and Memphis on different scales
Market (1 books)	-35.5	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Nicholls State Colonels at Sam Houston State BearkatsNicholls at Sam Houston

CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:00pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Nicholls than the bookmore Sam Houston →

Market

Sam Houston by 18.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen Sam Houston's last game
FPI	doesn't rate Nicholls
Sagarin	doesn't rate Nicholls
Massey	rates Nicholls and Sam Houston on different scales
Market (1 books)	-18.5	-904

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	—

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Sun Sep 20

14 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Titans +7

should be Titans +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +5.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 7, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →

Market

Eagles by 7TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game

Massey

Titans by 17.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Eagles by 5.51.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39TOM, Over -113

The Four

Massey

44.35.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.35.3 pts over the market

Over 39 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7 -108	39 -113	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5	39.5 -107 50¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	38.5 -110	+274	-340

All 12 books

	Titans spread	Total (over)	Titans ML	Eagles ML
TOM	+7 -108	39 -113	+265	-340
Kalshi	+7.5	39.5 -107 50¢	+296 24¢	-360 77¢
BetMGM	+7 -108	39.5 -108	+270	-325
BetOnline.ag	+7 -108	38.5 -110	+274	-340
BetRivers	+7 -106	39.5 -110	+300	-400
BetUS	+7 -110	39 -110	+275	-340
Bovada	+7 -110	39.5 -110	+265	-330
Caesars	+7 -109	39.5 -107	+270	-335
DraftKings	+7 -110	40.5 -105	+250	-310
FanDuel	+7 -110	39.5 -112	+280	-350
LowVig.ag	+7 -103	38.5 -107	+274	-340
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+265	-370

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +7.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Titans to win · +265 at TOM

We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Titans loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 39.0 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 5.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 1.5 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +7.5, only $345 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Cole Payton (Eagles), Out; Tanner McKee (Eagles), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Nicholas Singleton (RB, Titans), Elijah Moore (WR, Eagles), Atonio Mafi (G, Titans) and 4 more.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Philadelphia Eagles and Tennessee Titans's last game
Massey	-1.0	-112
Market (10 books)	+7.0	+277

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans +7.0	-108	-148	+7.7%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+265	+192	+6.8%
Total	Over 39.0	-113	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM: total 39.0 here against 39.3 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Browns +9

should be Browns +7 · getting 2 pts · was +6.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Buccaneers by 9, the Nasty Number says Buccaneers by 7. 2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Buccaneers by 9TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game

Massey

Buccaneers by 26.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Buccaneers by 72 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Browns. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM, Over -115

The Four

Massey

44.33.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.33.3 pts over the market

Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -105	41 -115	-420	+310
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetOnline.ag	-9 -105	41 -115	-420	+330

All 12 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Browns ML
TOM	-9 -105	41 -115	-420	+310
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -107 50¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-8.5 -105	41 -110	-425	+333
BetOnline.ag	-9 -105	41 -115	-420	+330
BetRivers	-8 -112	41 -110	-455	+340
BetUS	-9 +100	41 -110	-420	+330
Bovada	-8 -115	41 -115	-435	+325
Caesars	-8.5 -109	40.5 -120	-420	+330
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	40.5 -115	-375	+295
FanDuel	-7.5 -118	40.5 -115	-450	+350
LowVig.ag	-9 +101	41 -113	-420	+330
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	41 -110	-469	+330

Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Browns to win · +310 at TOM

We make it 30 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44. That's 3.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Browns, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers), Billy Schrauth (G, Buccaneers), Parker Brailsford (C, Browns) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -402 here against -348 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBuccaneers by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Cleveland Browns and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (10 books)	-9.0	-402

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	44.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cleveland Browns +9.0	-115	-151	+6.6%
Moneyline	Cleveland Browns ML	+310	+236	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 41.0	-115	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 09-12 12:03.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; moneyline -402 here against -348 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Saints +9

should be Saints +7 · getting 2 pts · was +7.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 9, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 7. 1.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 9TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game

Massey

Ravens by 36.2 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ravens by 71.8 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Saints. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

Massey

47.50.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.50.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 -105	47 -110	-425	+315
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
BetOnline.ag	-9 -105	47 -110	-430	+337

All 12 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Saints ML
TOM	-9 -105	47 -110	-425	+315
Kalshi	-8.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -103 49¢	-430 80¢	+331 22¢
BetMGM	-8.5 -105	47.5 -105	-450	+340
BetOnline.ag	-9 -105	47 -110	-430	+337
BetRivers	-8.5 -108	48 -110	-500	+375
BetUS	-9 +100	47 -110	-430	+338
Bovada	-8 -110	47.5 -110	-430	+320
Caesars	-8.5 -109	47.5 -105	-440	+330
DraftKings	-8.5 -110	47.5 -102	-375	+295
FanDuel	-8.5 -105	47.5 -110	-480	+370
LowVig.ag	-9 +100	47 -107	-430	+337
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	47.5 -110	-441	+310

Marked: best for Saints, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints +9.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Saints to win · +315 at TOM

We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Saints +9.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 78°F, 29% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Saints, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Joe Fagnano (Ravens), Out; Zach Wilson (Saints), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Devontez Walker (WR, Ravens), Mason Murphy (OT, Saints) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -407 here against -353 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New Orleans Saints and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey	-3.0	-141
Market (10 books)	-9.0	-407

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints +9.0	-115	-147	+6.0%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	+315	+242	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.6 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus; moneyline -407 here against -353 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona CardinalsSeahawks at Cardinals

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm

Cardinals +4

should be Cardinals +2.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was +6

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 4, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Seahawks than the bookmore Cardinals →

Market

Seahawks by 4TOM, -109

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals's last game

Massey

Cardinals by 48 pts our side

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 2.51.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Cardinals. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41TOM, Over -115

The Four

Massey

44.83.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.83.8 pts over the market

Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -109	41 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+4.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -103 49¢	—	-229 68¢
BetOnline.ag	+4 -109	40.5 -110	+180	-210

All 12 books

	Cardinals spread	Total (over)	Cardinals ML	Seahawks ML
TOM	+4 -109	41 -115	+170	-210
Kalshi	+4.5 -116 52¢	41.5 -103 49¢	—	-229 68¢
BetMGM	+4.5 -110	41 -105	+188	-225
BetOnline.ag	+4 -109	40.5 -110	+180	-210
BetRivers	+4.5 -108	40.5 -112	+200	-250
BetUS	+4 -110	40.5 -110	+180	-210
Bovada	+4.5 -115	40 -110	+185	-225
Caesars	+4 -107	40.5 -117	+188	-230
DraftKings	+4.5 -115	41.5 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+4.5 -105	41.5 -105	+194	-235
LowVig.ag	+4 -104	40.5 -107	+180	-210
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	41 -110	+177	-232

Marked: best for Cardinals, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cardinals +4.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Cardinals to win · +170 at TOM

We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cardinals loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 41.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 45. That's 3.8 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cardinals +4.0 · -109 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +6.0, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.7 toward Cardinals, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $128 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Carson Beck (Cardinals), Out; Jalen Milroe (Seahawks), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Sam Darnold (Seahawks), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Reggie Virgil (WR, Cardinals), Tory Horton (WR, Seahawks), Beau Stephens (G, Seahawks) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus.

TOM: total 41.0 here against 40.8 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +178 here against +198 consensus.

Seattle Seahawks has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Seattle Seahawks and Arizona Cardinals's last game
Massey	-4.0	-122
Market (10 books)	+4.0	+178

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Arizona Cardinals ML	+170	+132	+6.0%
Spread	Arizona Cardinals +4.0	-109	-138	+5.9%
Total	Over 41.0	-115	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-13 17:50; total has moved down 2.8.

TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.3 consensus; total 41.0 here against 40.8 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +198 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Jets +3.5

should be Jets +2 · getting 1.5 pts · was +5.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 2. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →

Market

Packers by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game

Massey

Jets by 25.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Packers by 21.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Jets. The Nasty Number is 1.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45TOM

The Four

Massey

46.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.71.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	45 -107	+162	-192
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -107 50¢	+166 36¢	-208 66¢
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	45 -108	+177	-205

All 12 books

	Jets spread	Total (over)	Jets ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	45 -107	+162	-192
Kalshi	+3.5 -112 51¢	44.5 -107 50¢	+166 36¢	-208 66¢
BetMGM	+4 -105	44.5 -108	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	45 -108	+177	-205
BetRivers	+4.5 -110	44.5 -109	+190	-240
BetUS	+4 -110	45 -110	+175	-205
Bovada	+4 -110	44.5 -115	+175	-210
Caesars	+4 -110	44.5 -114	+175	-209
DraftKings	+4.5 -112	44.5 -112	+185	-225
FanDuel	+4.5 -114	44.5 -110	+176	-210
LowVig.ag	+3.5 +100	45 -105	+177	-205
MyBookie.ag	—	—	+170	-222

Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jets +3.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Jets to win · +162 at TOM

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Jets loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 45.0 · -107 at TOM

Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 73°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Jets, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers -3.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), J. Michael Sturdivant (WR, Packers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.1 consensus.

TOM: total 45.0 here against 44.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +169 here against +189 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and New York Jets's last game
Massey	-2.0	-130
Market (10 books)	+3.5	+169

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.0	46.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	New York Jets ML	+162	+124	+6.4%
Spread	New York Jets +3.5	-110	-138	+5.6%
Total	Over 45.0	-107	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward New York Jets since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.1 consensus; total 45.0 here against 44.7 consensus; moneyline +169 here against +189 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm

Raiders +7

should be Raiders +6 · getting 1 pt · was +9.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chargers by 7, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 6. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →

Market

Chargers by 7TOM, -106

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game

Massey

Chargers by 1.55.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chargers by 61.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Raiders. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Raiders's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM, Under -110

The Four

Massey

39.34.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

39.34.2 pts under the market

Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-7 -106	43.5 -110	-325	+250
BetOnline.ag	-7 -106	44 -110	-330	+267

All 11 books

	Chargers spread	Total (over)	Chargers ML	Raiders ML
TOM	-7 -106	43.5 -110	-325	+250
BetMGM	-7 -105	44 -110	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7 -106	44 -110	-330	+267
BetRivers	-7 -113	44.5 -108	-360	+280
BetUS	-7 -105	44 -110	-330	+270
Bovada	-7 -105	44 -110	-320	+260
Caesars	-7 -107	44.5 -104	-325	+260
DraftKings	-7 -105	44.5 -110	-290	+235
FanDuel	-7 -110	43.5 -112	-355	+285
LowVig.ag	-7 -101	44 -107	-330	+267
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-340	+248

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +7.0 · -114 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Raiders to win · +250 at TOM

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Raiders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 39. That's 4.2 points under the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Raiders +7.0 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Logan Taylor (G, Chargers), Darrell Luter Jr. (CB, Raiders) and 2 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -311 here against -278 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onChargers by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers's last game
Massey	-1.5	-123
Market (10 books)	-7.0	-311

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	39.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Las Vegas Raiders +7.0	-114	-137	+4.5%
Moneyline	Las Vegas Raiders ML	+250	+206	+4.1%
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-12 15:10; total has moved up 1.6.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.1 consensus; moneyline -311 here against -278 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Miami Dolphins at San Francisco 49ersDolphins at 49ers

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm

No bet

market says 49ers by 13.5, our data says 49ers by 10.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 13.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 10.5, but the raw ratings sit 10 points off the market. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 13.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers's last game

Massey

49ers by 310.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 10.53.1 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Dolphins. The Nasty Number is 3.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change. The raw ratings sit 10 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Dolphins's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

Massey

450.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

450.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-12.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -116 52¢	-869 89¢	+685 12¢
BetOnline.ag	-13 -110	45 -110	-900	+613

All 12 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-13.5 -105	45.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-12.5 -116 52¢	45.5 -116 52¢	-869 89¢	+685 12¢
BetMGM	-12.5 -110	45.5 -110	-900	+650
BetOnline.ag	-13 -110	45 -110	-900	+613
BetRivers	-13.5 -110	45.5 -109	-1115	+650
BetUS	-13 -110	45 -110	-900	+600
Bovada	-13 -110	45.5 -110	-1100	+650
Caesars	-13 -109	45.5 -115	-950	+600
DraftKings	-12.5 -110	46.5 -110	-900	+600
FanDuel	-13.5 -104	45.5 -115	-950	+640
LowVig.ag	-13 -105	45 -107	-900	+613
MyBookie.ag	-13 -110	—	-1000	+560

Marked: best for Dolphins, higher payout on each moneyline.

Dolphins +13.5 · -115 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it.

Discounted

Dolphins to win · +613

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 74°F.

Backup QB out: Brady Cook (Dolphins), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: De'Zhaun Stribling (WR, 49ers), Jordan Watkins (WR, 49ers), Jalen Tolbert (WR, Dolphins) and 3 more.

The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.0 consensus.

San Francisco 49ers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Miami Dolphins's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey	-3.0	-145
Market (10 books)	-13.5	-649

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	45.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami Dolphins +13.5	-115	-136	+4.2%
Moneyline	Miami Dolphins ML	+613	+372	priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.0 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at Cowboys

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pm

Over 50.5

should be 51.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 51.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 3TOM, -125

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game

Massey

Cowboys by 21.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 2.50.3 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Commanders. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

52.92.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.92.4 pts over the market

Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-3 -125	50.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-200 65¢	+166 36¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -125	50.5 -110	-190	+165

All 11 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Commanders ML
TOM	-3 -125	50.5 -110	-190	+160
Kalshi	-3.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-200 65¢	+166 36¢
BetMGM	-3.5 -108	50.5 -110	-190	+160
BetOnline.ag	-3 -125	50.5 -110	-190	+165
BetRivers	-4.5 -107	50 -112	-200	+163
BetUS	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-190	+163
Caesars	-3.5 -111	50.5 -112	-193	+162
DraftKings	-3.5 -108	50.5 -108	-185	+154
FanDuel	-3.5 -110	50.5 -112	-194	+162
LowVig.ag	-3 -115	50.5 -107	-190	+165
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	50.5 -110	-200	+154

Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +3.0 · +105 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +160 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 38. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Commanders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 53. That's 2.4 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Athan Kaliakmanis (Commanders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Israel Abanikanda (RB, Cowboys), Camden Brown (WR, Cowboys), Malik Hooker (S, Cowboys) and 1 more.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Washington Commanders and Dallas Cowboys's last game
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-182

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	52.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+160	+138	+3.5%
Spread	Washington Commanders +3.0	+105	-106	+2.7%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 09-12 15:27; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.5 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pm

Colts +6.5

should be Colts +6 · getting 0.5 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →

Market

Chiefs by 6.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game

Massey

Chiefs by 33.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 60.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Colts. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

47.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.80.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-300	+245

All 11 books

	Chiefs spread	Total (over)	Chiefs ML	Colts ML
TOM	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-300	+240
Kalshi	-6.5 -107 50¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-290 73¢	—
BetMGM	—	48 -108	-300	+240
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-300	+245
BetRivers	-6.5 -109	47.5 -109	-295	+230
BetUS	-6.5 -110	47.5 -110	-300	+250
Caesars	-6.5 -109	47.5 -120	-290	+235
DraftKings	-6.5 -110	48.5 -110	-290	+235
FanDuel	-6.5 -104	47.5 -118	-290	+235
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -105	47.5 -107	-300	+245
MyBookie.ag	—	—	-290	+214

Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +6.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Colts to win · +240 at TOM

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Colts loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colts +6.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 74°F, 22% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $273 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $118 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: DJ Giddens (RB, Colts), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline -287 here against -251 consensus.

Kansas City Chiefs has had 23 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts's last game
Massey	-3.0	-134
Market (9 books)	-6.5	-287

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	47.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Indianapolis Colts ML	+240	+204	+3.5%
Spread	Indianapolis Colts +6.5	-110	-122	+2.6%
Total	Over 47.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline -287 here against -251 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Steelers +5.5

should be Steelers +4.5 · getting 1 pt · was +4.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →

Market

Patriots by 5.5TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots's last game

Massey

Patriots by 23.4 pts our side

Nasty Number

Patriots by 4.51 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Steelers. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5TOM

The Four

Massey

401.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

401.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 42 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5.5 -107	41.5 -105	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -121 53¢	-239 69¢	+189 33¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -107	42 -110	-240	+200

All 12 books

	Patriots spread	Total (over)	Patriots ML	Steelers ML
TOM	-5.5 -107	41.5 -105	-240	+190
Kalshi	-5.5 -103 49¢	41.5 -121 53¢	-239 69¢	+189 33¢
BetMGM	-5 -108	42 -108	-235	+195
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -107	42 -110	-240	+200
BetRivers	-5.5 -113	42 -108	-230	+185
BetUS	-5 -110	42 -110	-240	+203
Bovada	-5.5 -110	42 -110	-245	+205
Caesars	-5.5 -109	41.5 -117	-235	+194
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	41.5 -115	-238	+195
FanDuel	-4.5 -118	42.5 -105	-245	+200
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -102	42 -107	-240	+200
MyBookie.ag	—	42 -110	-246	+186

Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +5.5 · -113 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Steelers to win · +190 at TOM

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32.

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Steelers +5.5 · -113 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out; Drew Allar (Steelers), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 4 more.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 42.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -230 here against -209 consensus.

New England Patriots has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPatriots by 4.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and New England Patriots's last game
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (10 books)	-5.5	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	40.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Pittsburgh Steelers ML	+190	+173	+2.2%
Spread	Pittsburgh Steelers +5.5	-113	-123	+2.1%
Total	Under 41.5	-115	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward New England Patriots since 09-12 12:03; total has moved down 1.5.

TOM: total 41.5 here against 42.0 consensus; moneyline -230 here against -209 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Vikings +5.5

should be Vikings +5 · getting 0.5 pts · was +3

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 5.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game

Massey

Bears by 23.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bears by 50.7 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Vikings. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

Massey

50.30.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.30.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-250	+200
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -103 49¢	-250 70¢	+198 32¢
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -108	50 -105	-240	+200

All 11 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Vikings ML
TOM	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-250	+200
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	49.5 -103 49¢	-250 70¢	+198 32¢
BetMGM	-5.5 -110	49.5 -110	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -108	50 -105	-240	+200
BetRivers	-5.5 -109	49.5 -109	-275	+210
BetUS	-6 +100	50 -105	-240	+203
Caesars	-5.5 -109	49.5 -113	-245	+200
DraftKings	-5.5 -110	49.5 -112	-250	+205
FanDuel	-5.5 -108	49.5 -106	-245	+200
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -103	50 -102	-240	+200
MyBookie.ag	-5.5 -110	49 -110	-242	+184

Marked: best for Vikings, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings +5.5 · -110 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · +200 at TOM

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31.

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Vikings +5.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 72°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -5.5. The market has moved 2.6 away from Vikings, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

QB questionable: Kyler Murray (Vikings), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Backup QB out: Tyson Bagent (Bears), Out; J.J. McCarthy (Vikings), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Demond Claiborne (RB, Vikings), Ozzy Trapilo (OT, Bears), Jordan McFadden (G, Bears) and 4 more.

TOM: moneyline -239 here against -213 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears's last game
Massey	-2.0	-126
Market (9 books)	-5.5	-239

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	+200	+179	+2.6%
Spread	Minnesota Vikings +5.5	-110	-119	+1.9%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Chicago Bears since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 4.0.

TOM: moneyline -239 here against -213 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Over 44

should be 45.6 · getting 1.6 pts · was 43

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 1, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →

Market

Panthers by 1TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game

Massey

a pick'em

Nasty Number

Panthers by 10.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 2 to Panthers by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

49.35.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.35.3 pts over the market

Over 44 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+1 -104	44 -110	+102	-122
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+105 47¢	-121 53¢
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -110	44 -107	+102	-122

All 11 books

	Falcons spread	Total (over)	Falcons ML	Panthers ML
TOM	+1 -104	44 -110	+102	-122
Kalshi	+1.5 -116 52¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+105 47¢	-121 53¢
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	43.5 -115	+100	-120
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -110	44 -107	+102	-122
BetRivers	+1 -114	43.5 -113	-107	-114
BetUS	PK +100	43.5 -110	—	—
Caesars	+1.5 -110	43.5 -113	+103	-121
DraftKings	+1.5 -112	43.5 -115	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -112	43.5 -105	+104	-122
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -105	44 -104	+102	-122
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	—	-101	-125

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +1.0 · -104 at TOM

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Falcons to win · +102 at TOM

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49. That's 5.3 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Panthers).

Kalshi thin: Under 44.5, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Haynes King (Panthers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: John Metchie III (WR, Panthers), Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE, Panthers), Ethan Onianwa (OT, Falcons) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.3 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onPanthers by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons's last game
Massey	PK	-132
Market (9 books)	+1.0	+107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	49.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Atlanta Falcons +1.0	-104	+104	-1.8%
Moneyline	Atlanta Falcons ML	+102	+110	-1.8%
Total	Over 44.0	-110	-122	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Carolina Panthers since 09-12 12:03; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against +1.3 consensus; total 44.0 here against 43.6 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm

Over 46.5

should be 47.5 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 3TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game

Massey

Texans by 2

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

Massey

51.44.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.44.9 pts over the market

Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-3 -105	46.5 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -136 56¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -103	46.5 -110	-150	+130

All 12 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Bengals ML
TOM	-3 -105	46.5 -110	-155	+130
Kalshi	-2.5 -136 56¢	46.5 -112 51¢	-161 60¢	+134 41¢
BetMGM	-3 -108	47 -105	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -103	46.5 -110	-150	+130
BetRivers	-3 -106	47 -109	-155	+128
BetUS	-3 -105	46.5 -110	-150	+129
Bovada	-3 -105	47 -110	-165	+140
Caesars	-3 -105	46.5 -115	-150	+127
DraftKings	-3 -105	46.5 -115	-148	+124
FanDuel	-3 -105	47.5 -102	-156	+132
LowVig.ag	-3 +102	46.5 -107	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	47 -110	-161	+125

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +3.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Bengals to win · +130 at TOM

We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 51. That's 4.9 points over the market.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Ke'Shawn Williams (WR, Bengals), Jack Endries (TE, Bengals), Nate Thomas (OT, Texans) and 5 more.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Cincinnati Bengals and Houston Texans's last game
Massey	-2.0	-124
Market (10 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	51.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bengals +3.0	-115	-105	-2.2%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bengals ML	+130	+139	-1.7%
Total	Over 46.5	-110	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.8 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos

NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm

No bet

market says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Broncos by 3, the Nasty Number says Broncos by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →

Market

Broncos by 3TOM, -103

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game

FPI

hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game

Massey

Broncos by 2.5

Nasty Number

Broncos by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44.5TOM

The Four

Massey

440.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

440.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-3 -103	44.5 -110	-140	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	44.5	—	+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag	-3 -104	44.5 -110	-150	+130

All 11 books

	Broncos spread	Total (over)	Broncos ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-3 -103	44.5 -110	-140	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	44.5	—	+118 44¢
BetMGM	-3 +100	44.5 -110	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -104	44.5 -110	-150	+130
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	44.5 -109	-148	+123
BetUS	-3 -110	44.5 -110	-150	+129
Caesars	-3 -105	44.5 -112	-148	+125
DraftKings	-2.5 -118	44.5 -115	-148	+124
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	44.5 -110	-142	+120
LowVig.ag	-3 +101	44.5 -107	-150	+130
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	44.5 -110	-154	+120

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -117 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.

Not Nasty

Jaguars to win · +120 at TOM

We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37.

Not Nasty

the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $100 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $341 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Quinn Ewers (Jaguars), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Tanner Koziol (TE, Jaguars), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.

Denver Broncos has had 22 days off against 7, worth about 0.8 points.

Full detail

We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
FPI	hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars's last game
Massey	-2.5	-125
Market (9 books)	-3.0	-134

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-117	-103	-3.2%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+120	+142	-4.2%
Total	Under 44.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Mon Sep 21

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams

NFL Mon 21 Sep, 7:15pm

Giants +7

should be Giants +6 · getting 1 pt · was +8.5

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 7, the Nasty Number says Rams by 6. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →

Market

Rams by 7TOM, -114

The Four

nfelo

hasn't seen New York Giants's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New York Giants's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams's last game

Massey

Rams by 24.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Rams by 61 pts off the market

All 1 systems lean Giants. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

Massey

471.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

471.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -114	48.5 -107	-340	+265
Kalshi	—	—	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
BetOnline.ag	-7 -123	49.5 -110	-350	+280

All 11 books

	Rams spread	Total (over)	Rams ML	Giants ML
TOM	-7 -114	48.5 -107	-340	+265
Kalshi	—	—	-340 76¢	+280 25¢
BetMGM	-7 -118	48.5 -110	-350	+280
BetOnline.ag	-7 -123	49.5 -110	-350	+280
BetRivers	-7 -115	48.5 -109	-400	+300
BetUS	-7 -115	49.5 -110	-350	+280
Caesars	-7 -115	48.5 -112	-360	+280
DraftKings	-7 -115	48.5 -108	-345	+275
FanDuel	-7.5 -102	48.5 -106	-370	+295
LowVig.ag	-7 -119	49.5 -107	-350	+280
MyBookie.ag	-7 -115	48.5 -110	-370	+265

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +7.0 · -106 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.

A Little Nasty

Giants to win · +265 at TOM

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Giants loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit.

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 48.5 · -113 at TOM

Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +7.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Giants, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Also out: Najee Harris (RB, Giants), CJ Daniels (WR, Rams), Max Klare (TE, Rams) and 5 more.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	hasn't seen New York Giants's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New York Giants's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New York Giants and Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey	-2.0	-127
Market (9 books)	-7.0	-325

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +7.0	-106	-135	+6.1%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+265	+208	+5.0%
Total	Under 48.5	-113	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward New York Giants since 09-13 19:15.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

The Receipts11 bets · 6-5 · +1.5u Log what you betand the group leaderboard Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks2-1+0.78 units · +26% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+1.5 ptsbeat the close on 3 of 4 posted picks

Open0calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks2-167%+0.78 units3 games

Closing line value: +1.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 3. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty0-10%-1.00 units1 game

Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty11-1248%-1.99 units23 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

11-12 · -1.99 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick	2-1	66.7%	+0.8 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	0-1	0.0%	-1.0 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	11-12	47.8%	-2.0 u
Not Nasty	72 games	—	—	no call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 11 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.44Sides: pts vs close, 11 bets, beat it 55%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 3 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 1 of 3 moved our way, average +0.1 points, and the full board kept the side 1 time, flipped it 0, went quiet 2. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
Houston at Texas Tech	Over 52.6	52.6	53	+0.4	no call
Miami (OH) at Cincinnati	Cincinnati -14.5	-14.5	-14.5	+0.0	no call
Virginia Tech at Maryland	Maryland +3	3	3	+0.0	same side

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

91 priced · 26 a little nasty · audit: 1 problem

The audit found 1 problem at Mon 12:17pm. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. page: a total printed as 52.6, not to the half point

We read 91 games across 11 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 16 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 12:02pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 5.3North Carolina Tar Heels at Clemson Tigerstoward North Carolina Tar Heelsagainst the public
→ 4.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecockstoward Mississippi State Bulldogsagainst the public
→ 2.1Temple Owls at Toledo Rocketstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
→ 1.9Florida International Panthers at Florida Atlantic Owlstoward Florida International Panthersagainst the public
→ 1.8James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecstoward San Diego State Aztecswith the public
→ 1.4Green Bay Packers at New York Jetstoward New York Jetsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

11.03Points off per game at that weight

11.03The market on its own

105Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
FPI	53	10.38
The market	105	11.03
SP+	53	11.39
Sagarin	94	13.48

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	46-57	45%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 454054 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.12 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	79	1.84
DraftKings	191	1.34
LowVig.ag	174	1.30
BetOnline.ag	180	1.29
Caesars	159	1.26
Fanatics	142	1.19
BetRivers	213	1.09
FanDuel	236	1.09
BetMGM	179	1.02
Bovada	174	0.93
MyBookie.ag	143	0.93
TOM	176	0.92
BetUS	143	0.88
Pinnacle	163	0.88

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated yesterday
FPI NFL updated yesterday
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated yesterday
Sagarin NFL updated 6 days ago
nfelo updated yesterday

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Mon Sep 14

No plays today. Nothing made the Cut.

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.