Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Best on the board right now
Nothing has made the Cut. The strongest call on the board is Damn Near Nasty. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (49ers): TOM or Kalshi -7.5 at -107 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (1.4%) · Caesars -7.5 at -109 (1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Sunday, but one comes damn near. Close enough to smell it.
Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -7.5. Every system has 49ers by 12.5; the market has 49ers by 7.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Pittsburgh +6 (Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech) at 6.0% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt.
If you're playing one, it's Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -7.5. The ratings make it 49ers by 12.5. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (49ers): TOM or Kalshi -7.5 at -107 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (1.4%) · Caesars -7.5 at -109 (1.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -7.5 at -110 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.1%) · TOM +3 at -120 (0.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.Sniff of Nasty · Friday's preview, 14 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Pittsburgh +6, Cincinnati +8.5, TCU +7.5. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
6.0% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Pittsburgh): DraftKings +6 at -110 (6.0%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -106 (3.7%).5.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Cincinnati): DraftKings +8.5 at -108 (6.2%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -110 (3.7%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 52¢ (2.4%).5.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (TCU): FanDuel +7.5 at -110 (5.1%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -110 (-1.2%).2.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Iowa): FanDuel +14.5 at -105 (2.1%) · BetMGM +14.5 at -112 (0.5%) · DraftKings +14 at -110 (-1.0%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -114 (3.7%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (3.4%).2.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings -180 (2.8%) · BetMGM -190 (1.6%) · FanDuel -200 (0.5%).2.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Michigan State): FanDuel +10.5 at -105 (2.6%) · DraftKings +10 at -110 (-0.4%).6 more, weaker reads
1.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Baylor): FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (1.9%).1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Ohio to win): FanDuel -172 (2.2%).1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Nebraska): FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (2.4%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (0.9%).0.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel -14.5 at -110 (1.3%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (0.5%).Moved closer since the Sat 26 Sep, 8:28pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Sat 26 Sep, 8:28pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Chargers at Bills 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Bills -6.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from -7.5 to -7.0; the price from -101 to -115. - Rams at Broncos 7:20pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Broncos +3.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -2.0 to +2.0; the price from -113 to -107; the market drifted 0.6 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Panthers at Browns 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Panthers -1.5: 4.9 cents short at today's line, was 28.9.The price from -110 to -115; the market drifted 0.6 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Texans at Colts 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Dog at Colts +106: 3.1 cents short, was 5.8.The price from -105 to -102. - Patriots at Jaguars 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Nasty Dog at Patriots +136: 1.4 cents short, was 2.5.The line went from +3.0 to +2.5; the price from -116 to +105.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
14 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Cardinals at 49ers, 49ers -7.5.Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL 3:05pm49ers -7.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 49ers -9 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -8.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. 49ers -7.5: all 4 ratings our side, 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -107 | 48 -113 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 47.5 -118 | -352 | +298 |
All 25 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -107 | 48 -113 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -107 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -107 | 48 -113 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -8 -107 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 47.5 -113 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 +105 | 48 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -105 | 48 -115 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 48 -113 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 68.5 -1068 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -108 | 48.5 -105 | -395 | +310 |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -420 | +330 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -465 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -102 | 48 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -392 | +315 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -102 | 47.5 -118 | -352 | +298 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +104 | 48.5 -104 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -7.5 · -107 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from 49ers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Also out: Demarcus Robinson (WR, 49ers), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -649 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -497 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -356 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -7.5 | -107 | -114 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -370 | -361 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -107 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-19 17:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
New England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL 12:00pmPatriots +2.5should be Patriots +2.5 at Kalshi · was +2.5A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2.5. At +105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -111 | -148 | +134 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 46 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -157 | +132 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 46 -105 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 45.5 -120 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -1800 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -120 | -158 | +136 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 45.5 -115 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +105 | 46 -107 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -154 | +131 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -111 | -148 | +134 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 +104 | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -154 | +131 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +2.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +136 | +122 | +2.6% |
| Spread | New England Patriots +2.5 | +105 | -102 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL 12:00pmGiants to winour data says 58 in 100 · -127Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 38.5 +103 | -127 | +115 |
All 25 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -113 | -141 | +117 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 37.5 -108 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -113 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -113 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 37.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 38 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 37.5 -112 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -669 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -115 | -138 | +118 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -101 | 37.5 -107 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 38.5 +103 | -127 | +115 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 +100 | 38.5 +104 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 38.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants to win · -127 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 65°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -197 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 37.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -127 | -140 | +2.4% |
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -105 | -112 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 13:02; total has moved down 4.5.
TOM: total 37.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL 12:00pmColts +1.5should be Colts +1 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -107 | 42.5 -102 | +106 | -117 |
All 25 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -113 | +107 | -130 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | +110 | -129 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -4027 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -114 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -107 | 42.5 -102 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -107 | 42.5 -102 | +106 | -117 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 +104 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -123 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Colts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Colts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +113 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | -102 | -103 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +106 | +107 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -105 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 13:02; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +113 consensus.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Lions's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +106 | 48.5 -106 | -296 | +255 |
All 25 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -315 | +245 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -315 | +256 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 48 -112 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -107 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -1085 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -108 | -320 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -350 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -107 | -315 | +256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -306 | +248 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +106 | 48.5 -106 | -296 | +255 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 -104 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 48 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for Lions, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Lions, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -325 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -351 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -337 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -290 | -296 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -115 | -115 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL 12:00pmSeahawks -8.5should be Seahawks -9 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8.5 -110 | 40 -113 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 +101 48¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -119 | 40.5 +100 | +320 | -382 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8.5 -110 | 40 -113 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 +101 48¢ | 39.5 -116 52¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 40.5 -106 | +300 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 40 -113 | +330 | -410 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +320 | -400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8.5 -110 | 40 -113 | +324 | -410 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 40.5 -106 | +300 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -108 | 40.5 -106 | +300 | -385 |
| BetUS | +9 -115 | 40 -110 | +305 | -380 |
| Bovada | +8.5 -115 | 40 -115 | +305 | -410 |
| Caesars | +8.5 -114 | 40 -113 | +320 | -400 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -419 | +319 | -383 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -115 | 40.5 -102 | +310 | -395 |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +325 | -425 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +350 | -450 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -110 | 40.5 -105 | +325 | -475 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +8.5 -109 | 40 -110 | +324 | -410 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +332 | -428 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -119 | 40.5 +100 | +320 | -382 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -104 | 39.5 | +335 | -355 |
| ReBet | +8.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| theScore Bet | +8 -105 | 39.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 61°F, 67% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 6.4 toward Seahawks). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 39.5, only $144 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +8.5 here against +8.9 consensus.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +314 here against +367 consensus.
BetRivers still has Seahawks -7.5 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 9.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +266 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +258 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +351 |
| Market (22 books) | +8.5 | +314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -360 | -361 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -8.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -113 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 6.5 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-20 08:31; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +8.5 here against +8.9 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.4 consensus; moneyline +314 here against +367 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL 12:00pmBills -7should be Bills -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -106 | -336 | +286 |
All 24 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +274 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -330 | +270 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50.5 -105 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -319 | -316 | +267 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 50.5 -105 | -325 | +260 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -410 | +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -107 | -340 | +274 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -106 | -336 | +286 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +104 | 50.5 +108 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7 -120 | 50 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 65°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
DraftKings still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.1% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -348 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -217 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -362 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.0 | -115 | -114 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -340 | -321 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL 12:00pmPanthers -1.5should be Panthers -2 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 +101 | 42 -109 | +113 | -125 |
All 25 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 42 -110 | +117 | -141 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 42 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -107 | 42.5 -106 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -651 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -118 | 41.5 -115 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 -107 | +107 | -127 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +111 | -130 |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 +101 | 42 -109 | +113 | -125 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 42.5 +104 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +111 | -130 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Browns).
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
BetRivers still has Browns +2.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 1.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +135 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +147 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers -1.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | -127 | -119 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Cleveland Browns since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL 12:00pmBengals -3should be Bengals -3 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 3.5 to Bengals by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +141 | -171 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -118 | 43 +103 | +154 | -172 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +141 | -171 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +150 | -186 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -171 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +150 | -186 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +150 | -186 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | — | 38.5 +148 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | +152 | -180 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 42.5 -107 | +150 | -171 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -178 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -118 | 43 +103 | +154 | -172 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -178 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Steelers, now Not Nasty. The line went from +3.5 to +3.0.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Bengals). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +147 here against +166 consensus.
BetUS still has Bengals -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Bengals by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +147 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.0 | -115 | -101 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -171 | -150 | -3.2% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +147 here against +166 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL 12:00pmChiefs -10should be Chiefs -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -113 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +101 48¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -120 | 45 -109 | +472 | -599 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -113 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +101 48¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -107 | 45 -113 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 45.5 -108 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -113 | 45 -110 | +491 | -675 |
| betPARX | +10 -107 | 45 -113 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +10 -107 | 45 -113 | +500 | -715 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 45 -110 | +465 | -630 |
| Bovada | +10 -115 | 45 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +10 -108 | 45 -113 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -2279 | +439 | -553 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 45.5 -105 | +425 | -575 |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -120 | 45.5 -105 | +460 | -620 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +465 | -760 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +10 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -108 | 45 -107 | +491 | -675 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 45 -110 | +433 | -594 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -120 | 45 -109 | +472 | -599 |
| Polymarket | +9.5 +104 | 44.5 | +525 | -567 |
| ReBet | +10 -109 | 45 -110 | +410 | -549 |
| theScore Bet | +10 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +10.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Kansas City Chiefs -9.5, only $28 available; Over 44.5, only $93 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.3 consensus.
Polymarket still has Chiefs -9.5 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 10.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +374 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +429 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +384 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +193 |
| Market (22 books) | +10.0 | +568 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -10.0 | -107 | -101 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -575 | -411 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL 3:05pmVikings -1should be Vikings -1 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -115 | 42.5 -107 | -109 | -111 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 43 +104 | +101 | -111 |
All 25 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -115 | 42.5 -107 | -109 | -111 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1 -115 | 42.5 -107 | -109 | -111 |
| BetMGM | +1 -110 | 42.5 -108 | -105 | -115 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -115 | 42.5 -107 | -109 | -111 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1 -113 | 42.5 -109 | -104 | -114 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -1261 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -120 | 42.5 -105 | -105 | -115 |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | -104 | -112 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -108 | 42.5 -104 | -109 | -111 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -104 | -113 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -106 | 43 +104 | +101 | -111 |
| Polymarket | -0.5 +104 | 42.5 +100 | +104 | -108 |
| ReBet | +1 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -104 | -113 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Vikings).
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings +0.5, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 6 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -104 here against +106 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +120 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | -104 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.0 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +101 | +104 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -107 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 16:31; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline -104 here against +106 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 53.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 53 -111 | +154 | -172 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 53.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +151 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 53 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 53.5 -108 | +153 | -175 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 53.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 53.5 -107 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 76.5 -6611 | +145 | -166 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | +142 | -170 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 52.5 -114 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +105 | 53.5 -105 | +153 | -175 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +149 | -177 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 53 -111 | +154 | -172 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 53.5 +104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +149 | -177 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Bovada still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +119 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +188 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +152 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -120 | -105 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -175 | -154 | -3.0% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -112 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL 3:25pmSaints -3.5should be Saints -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 3 to Saints by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -181 | +151 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +103 | 44 +101 | -176 | +158 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -181 | +151 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -118 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -181 | +158 |
| betPARX | -3 -118 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -118 | 44 -109 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -112 | -179 | +151 |
| Courtside | — | 63.5 -5085 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 43.5 -118 | -198 | +164 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -178 | +150 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -109 | -181 | +158 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -181 | +153 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +103 | 44 +101 | -176 | +158 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 -108 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -181 | +153 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
FanDuel still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.2% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -158 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -177 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -174 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -173 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +3.5 | -115 | -101 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +164 | +173 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -108 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL 7:20pmRams -2should be Rams -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 44 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -101 | 44 -106 | +112 | -123 |
All 25 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 44 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -107 | 44 -110 | +107 | -127 |
| betPARX | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2 -115 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 44 -113 | +113 | -134 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -1618 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -102 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -118 | 44.5 -105 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 44 -107 | +107 | -127 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +107 | -131 |
| Pinnacle | +1.5 -101 | 44 -106 | +112 | -123 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +100 | 44.5 +104 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +109 | -128 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Broncos).
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
MyBookie.ag still has Broncos +2.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 1.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +144 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Denver Broncos +2.0 | -107 | -102 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Denver Broncos ML | +113 | +115 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Denver Broncos since 09-19 19:21; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmEagles -3.5should be Eagles -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 42.5 +103 | +161 | -180 |
All 25 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | +152 38¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | — | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +158 | -181 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 42 -109 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 42 -115 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -115 | 42 -114 | +154 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 62.5 -2356 | +168 | -194 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +164 | -198 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +148 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 41.5 -110 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -113 | 42 -113 | +158 | -181 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +154 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 42.5 +103 | +161 | -180 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 | 41.5 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +156 | -185 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -105 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bears).
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears +3.5, only $194 available; Over 41.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 4 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +104 |
| FPI | +3.5 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -118 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears +3.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | +164 | +174 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus; moneyline +158 here against +172 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Oct 1
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at TulsaCFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pmNorth Texas +2.5should be North Texas +1.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 1.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 5 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 56.5 -113 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | -137 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -104 | 56.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -130 | +100 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 56.5 -114 | -135 | +102 |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $52 available; Under 56.5, only $52 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen North Texas and Tulsa's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +132 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -107 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (5 books) | -2.5 | -118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +2.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +102 | +110 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +3should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -105 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 37.5 | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -104 | 37.5 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | — | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 37.5 -113 | — | — |
| Courtside | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 37.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +119 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 71°F, 37% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $24 available; Over 37.5, only $71 available; Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $194 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +151 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +121 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 36.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -125 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +124 | +121 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 37.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Oct 2
2 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +6should be Pittsburgh +3 · getting 3 pts at DraftKings▲Sniff of Nasty · PittsburghBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Pittsburgh. Market says Virginia Tech by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 | -208 66¢ | — |
All 7 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -4.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 | -208 66¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -110 | 53.5 -107 | -220 | +175 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -220 | +175 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -114 | 51.5 -118 | -194 | +160 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -215 | +170 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh +6.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting for the ratings update, now Sniff of Nasty · Pittsburgh. The line went from -6.0 to -5.5.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers +4.5, only $12 available; Over 51.5, only $53 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Pittsburgh and Virginia Tech's last game | |
| FPI | +2.5 | +120 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +132 |
| Market (6 books) | -5.5 | -195 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +6.0 | -110 | -140 | +6.0% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +175 | +145 | +4.4% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.3.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -4should be Penn State -3.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 4, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 61°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Northwestern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Penn State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (8 books) | +4.0 | +169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +4.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +149 | +159 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.8.
Only 2 models could price the sides.
Sat Oct 3
38 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Cincinnati, Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pmCincinnati +8.5should be Cincinnati +6.5 · getting 2 ptsSniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Arizona by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -322 75¢ | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -300 | +230 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -114 | 54.5 -114 | -350 | +244 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +8.5 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $475 available; Cincinnati Bearcats ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Cincinnati and Arizona's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -194 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (5 books) | -8.5 | -274 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +8.5 | -110 | -139 | +5.8% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +236 | +215 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmTCU +7.5should be TCU +6 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was +5.5▲Sniff of Nasty · TCUBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, TCU. Market says BYU by 7, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | -290 73¢ |
All 7 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | -290 73¢ |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +205 | -265 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 51.5 -111 | +214 | -300 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
Marked: best for TCU, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is TCU +7.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 27% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting for the ratings update, now Sniff of Nasty · TCU.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from TCU, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +7.5, only $52 available; TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU's last game | |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (6 books) | +7.0 | +237 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +7.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +235 | +203 | +3.2% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 1.2.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +14.5should be Iowa +13.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel▲Sniff of Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Ohio State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +14.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 22% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting for the ratings update, now Sniff of Nasty · Iowa.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ohio State and Iowa's last game | |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +310 |
| Market (7 books) | +14.5 | +651 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +500 | +455 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.5.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at WisconsinCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30amMichigan State +10.5should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F, 25% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Michigan State and Wisconsin's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -376 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -204 |
| Market (5 books) | -10.0 | -373 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +10.5 | -105 | -116 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +350 | +311 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama to winour data says 67 in 100 · -180Sniff of Nasty · AlabamaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Alabama. Market says Alabama by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6. At -180 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
All 8 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 59.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -113 | 59.5 -108 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | +164 | -200 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 | +155 | -195 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 59.5 -114 | +158 | -214 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Alabama to win · -180 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 35% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.1 toward Alabama, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +6.5, only $38 available; Under 59.5, only $12 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $294 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Alabama and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +293 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +324 |
| Market (7 books) | +4.5 | +176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -180 | -204 | +2.8% |
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -4.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmBaylor +4.5should be Baylor +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · BaylorBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Baylor. Market says Arizona State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona State by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -180 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -148 |
| Market (3 books) | -4.5 | -179 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears +4.5 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +155 | +150 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNebraska -13should be Nebraska -14.5 · getting 1.5 ptsSniff of Nasty · NebraskaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Nebraska. Market says Nebraska by 13, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 14.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -490 | +365 |
| Fliff | — | 52.5 -115 | -505 | +360 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | — | -625 | +380 |
Marked: best for Nebraska, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nebraska -13.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers -12.5, only $454 available; Maryland Terrapins +12.5, only $1 available; Over 52.5, only $458 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Maryland and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.0 | -548 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -424 |
| Market (3 books) | -13.0 | -470 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -13.0 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -505 | -513 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOhio to winour data says 65 in 100 · -175Sniff of Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says Ohio by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.5. At -175 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio to win · -175. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F, 26% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +407 |
| Market (3 books) | +3.5 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -175 | -189 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.5 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pmJames Madison -15should be James Madison -17 · getting 2 ptsSniff of Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 15, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 17. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -719 87¢ | — |
All 4 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -719 87¢ | — |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -710 | +490 |
| Fliff | — | 56.5 -115 | -735 | +485 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -111 | — | -800 | +440 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -15.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F, 32% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: James Madison Dukes -14.5, only $52 available; Marshall Thundering Herd +14.5, only $52 available; Over 56.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Marshall and James Madison's last game | |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -936 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -737 |
| Market (3 books) | -15.0 | -643 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -15.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -722 | -621 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air ForceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 49should be 51.3 · getting 2.5 ptsSniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 2, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -121 53¢ | — |
All 4 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -121 53¢ | — |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 48.5 -114 | -125 | +104 |
| Fliff | — | 48.5 -120 | -130 | +100 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 49.5 -111 | -129 | -103 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -1.5, only $275 available; Navy Midshipmen +1.5, only $275 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Navy and Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -151 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (3 books) | -2.0 | -114 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -2.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -121 | -121 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 54.5should be 55.8 · getting 1.3 ptsSniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says South Alabama by 16, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 16.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -820 | +540 |
| Fliff | — | 54.5 -115 | -840 | +535 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -114 | — | -847 | +470 |
Marked: best for the South Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 79% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars -16.5, only $275 available; UL Monroe Warhawks +16.5, only $275 available; Over 54.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UL Monroe and South Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -787 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -620 |
| Market (3 books) | -16.0 | -716 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 58.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -16.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -840 | -604 | priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmOver 53.5should be 54.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 53.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says USC by 7.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 8.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | — | — | — |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -315 | +250 |
| Fliff | — | 53.5 -115 | -325 | +245 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -7.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans -7.5, only $220 available; Over 53.5, only $458 available; Under 53.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Washington and USC's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -343 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (2 books) | -7.5 | -289 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 57.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans -7.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | -320 | -303 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35; total has moved down 4.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pmUnder 57.5should be 55.2 · getting 2.3 ptsSniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Hawai'i's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -184 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (3 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -170 | -165 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConnCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUConn +7.5should be UConn +7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Fliff | — | 52.5 -115 | +230 | -305 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | — | +232 | -330 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +7.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $207 available; Under 52.5, only $153 available; UConn Huskies ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +193 |
| Sagarin | +6.0 | +199 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +118 |
| Market (3 books) | +7.5 | +276 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +7.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +232 | +237 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pmToledo -15should be Toledo -16.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 15, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 16.5. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F, 38% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Toledo and Ball State's last game | |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1212 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +610 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +828 |
| Market (3 books) | +15.0 | +707 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -15.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -820 | -611 | priced at 89 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmKentucky +3.5should be Kentucky +3.5 at DraftKings · was +6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 3.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | +134 41¢ |
All 5 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | +134 41¢ |
| Courtside | -3.5 -118 | 51.5 -122 | -188 | +163 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -120 | 51.5 -125 | -192 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 52.5 -110 | -188 | +155 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -130 | 52.5 -115 | -195 | +155 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +3.5 · +100 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.5 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks -3.5, only $468 available; South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $103 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kentucky and South Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (4 books) | -3.5 | -176 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +3.5 | +100 | -105 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +155 | +153 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.5.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -6.5should be Michigan -7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was -7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -250 70¢ |
All 4 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -250 70¢ |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +184 | -225 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -120 | 44.5 -115 | +180 | -230 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan -6.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $459 available; Under 44.5, only $459 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers ML, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Michigan and Minnesota's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +119 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +275 |
| Market (3 books) | +6.5 | +204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -6.5 | -105 | -111 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -227 | -236 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved up 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at HoustonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUCF +12should be UCF +10.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Houston by 12, the Nasty Number says Houston by 10.5. 1.4 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -480 | +360 |
| Fliff | — | 50.5 -115 | -495 | +355 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -114 | — | -549 | +340 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 43% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -11.5, only $459 available; UCF Knights +11.5, only $459 available; Over 50.5, only $458 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCF and Houston's last game | |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -179 |
| Market (3 books) | -12.0 | -445 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 50.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +12.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +355 | +367 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only 3 books have posted, so the number we're beating is one opener, not a market. It can't be a pick until 4 books are up.
Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUnder 57.5should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.
The spread
The total
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
All 4 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -1429 93¢ | — |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -118 | 57.5 -105 | -1800 | +920 |
| Fliff | — | 57.5 -110 | -1965 | +915 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -111 | — | -1695 | +690 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 26% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Boston College Eagles ML, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boston College and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | -16.0 | -581 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -812 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -565 |
| Market (3 books) | -21.0 | -1461 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +21.0 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +915 | +858 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amClemson +18should be Clemson +16.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 18.
The spread
The total
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +18.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 | +625 13¢ | -788 88¢ |
All 8 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +18.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 | +625 13¢ | -788 88¢ |
| BetMGM | +18 -110 | 50.5 -118 | +775 | -1100 |
| Courtside | +18.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +842 | -1252 |
| DraftKings | +18.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1350 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 49.5 -118 | +680 | -1100 |
| Fliff | +18.5 -115 | 49.5 -125 | +740 | -1360 |
| ReBet | +18.5 -116 | 50.5 -125 | +580 | -1205 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -110 | 52.5 +100 | +700 | -1200 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F, 39% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +18.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Miami).
Kalshi thin: Miami Hurricanes -18.5, only $53 available; Over 51.5, only $51 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami and Clemson's last game | |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +288 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +317 |
| Market (7 books) | +18.0 | +1046 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +18.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +800 | +601 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-25 11:56.
The line is +18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amVanderbilt +24.5should be Vanderbilt +24 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.5.
The spread
The total
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | +1464 6¢ |
All 6 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 | — | +1464 6¢ |
| Courtside | -24.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -3022 | +1639 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1400 |
| Fliff | -24.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | +1435 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -111 | 56.5 -114 | -2273 | +800 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 34% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $122 available; Georgia Bulldogs ML, only $411 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -812 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -844 |
| Market (5 books) | -24.5 | -2718 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 57.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +24.5 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +1467 | +1535 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.6.
The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amIowa State +0.5should be Iowa State -1 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says West Virginia by 0.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 1. 1.3 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 60°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen West Virginia and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -173 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -407 |
| Market (3 books) | +0.5 | +100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones +0.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amLouisville -6.5should be Louisville -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Louisville by 7.5 to Louisville by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisville and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (5 books) | +6.5 | +216 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +6.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +190 | +206 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -22should be Notre Dame -21.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet▲Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 22.
The spread
The total
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
All 7 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 50.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Courtside | +21.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +1177 | -1882 |
| DraftKings | +21.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +1100 | -2100 |
| FanDuel | +22.5 -105 | 48.5 -104 | +1400 | — |
| Fliff | +21.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | +1190 | — |
| ReBet | +22.5 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +780 | -2273 |
| theScore Bet | +22.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +1300 | — |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 75°F.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting for the ratings update, now Not Nasty. The line went from +21.5 to +22.0.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +22.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: North Carolina Tar Heels ML, only $49 available; Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | +20.5 | +921 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +625 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1202 |
| Market (6 books) | +22.0 | +2172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +22.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +1400 | +1168 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56.
The line is +22.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake ForestCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amWake Forest -12should be Wake Forest -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 12, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -480 | +365 |
| Fliff | — | 52.5 -115 | -505 | +360 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -114 | — | -549 | +340 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11.5, only $459 available; Stanford Cardinal +11.5, only $459 available; Over 52.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Stanford and Wake Forest's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -436 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -369 |
| Market (3 books) | -12.0 | -449 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -12.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | -505 | -417 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central MichiganCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCentral Michigan -5.5should be Central Michigan -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| Fliff | — | 46.5 -115 | -225 | +175 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -116 | — | -242 | +176 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas -5.5, only $52 available; Akron Zips +5.5, only $34 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $80 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron and Central Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -290 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -224 |
| Market (3 books) | -5.5 | -205 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas -5.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas ML | -225 | -197 | -2.9% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -8should be Tennessee -8 · no bet▲Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 8, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
All 7 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -306 74¢ | — |
| Courtside | -7.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 -104 | -310 | +245 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | -305 | +235 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -111 | 56.5 -114 | -319 | +224 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 47% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was Waiting for the ratings update, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, only $58 available; Auburn Tigers +7.5, only $47 available; Over 56.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Auburn and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -285 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (6 books) | -8.0 | -272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Auburn Tigers +8.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Auburn Tigers ML | +235 | +283 | -3.7% |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLVCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia -0.5should be California PK · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says California by 0.5, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -107 50¢ | — |
All 4 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -107 50¢ | — |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -106 | -113 |
| Fliff | — | 54.5 -115 | -110 | -115 |
| ReBet | -0.5 -109 | — | -111 | -120 |
Marked: best for the UNLV side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +1.5, only $177 available; California Golden Bears -1.5, only $182 available; Over 54.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen California and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -110 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +150 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (3 books) | +0.5 | +103 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +1.5 | -115 | -110 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | -108 | -100 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmFlorida -5.5should be Florida -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | -229 68¢ |
All 6 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | -229 68¢ |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | +168 | -205 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | +170 | -232 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 71°F, 30% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $46 available; Florida Gators -5.5, only $170 available; Missouri Tigers ML, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +151 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +150 |
| Market (5 books) | +5.5 | +198 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Florida Gators -5.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Florida Gators ML | -205 | -190 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.5.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmVirginia -1.5should be Virginia -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia and Florida State's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (5 books) | +1.5 | +111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -1.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -118 | -112 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia State +1.5should be Georgia State -0.5 · getting 2 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 0.5. 1.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Old Dominion and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -225 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +128 |
| Market (3 books) | +1.5 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers +1.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | -104 | +100 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmIllinois -9.5should be Illinois -10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | — |
All 4 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | — | — | — |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 59.5 -106 | -365 | +285 |
| Fliff | — | 59.5 -115 | -375 | +280 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | — | -400 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 40% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +9.5, only $50 available; Over 59.5, only $450 available; Under 59.5, only $468 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Purdue and Illinois's last game | |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -419 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (3 books) | -9.5 | -338 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 61.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -9.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -375 | -343 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 59.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmOregon State -5.5should be Oregon State -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 74°F, 20% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and Colorado State's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +105 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +200 |
| Market (3 books) | +5.5 | +199 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +5.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +172 | +188 | -2.0% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmTexas A&M -16should be Texas A&M -15.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas A&M by 16, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -820 | +550 |
| Fliff | — | 51.5 -115 | -860 | +545 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 51.5 -114 | -847 | +470 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -15.5, only $459 available; Arkansas Razorbacks +15.5, only $497 available; Over 51.5, only $459 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arkansas and Texas A&M's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -602 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -405 |
| Market (3 books) | -16.0 | -723 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 59.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +16.0 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +545 | +568 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmUTSA -10.5should be UTSA -11 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 10.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -458 81¢ |
All 4 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -458 81¢ |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -106 | +340 | -450 |
| Fliff | — | 53.5 -115 | +335 | -465 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -109 | — | +310 | -481 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +10.5, only $52 available; UTSA Roadrunners -10.5, only $52 available; Rice Owls ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UTSA and Rice's last game | |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +387 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +453 |
| Market (3 books) | +10.5 | +410 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -10.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -457 | -375 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmTexas Tech -16should be Texas Tech -15.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 16, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +573 14¢ | -869 89¢ |
All 4 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +573 14¢ | -869 89¢ |
| FanDuel | +15.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +540 | -800 |
| Fliff | — | 51.5 -125 | +535 | -835 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -116 | 52.5 -114 | +470 | -847 |
Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 71°F, 21% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +16.5, only $275 available; Texas Tech Red Raiders -16.5, only $275 available; Over 52.5, only $275 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech and Colorado's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +373 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +430 |
| Market (3 books) | +16.0 | +711 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes +16.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes ML | +537 | +558 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida -6.5should be South Florida -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Florida by 6.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
All 3 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -250 | +202 |
| Fliff | — | 52.5 -125 | -255 | +200 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | — | -265 | +191 |
Marked: best for the South Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $208 available; Temple Owls +6.5, only $34 available; Over 53.5, only $158 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple and South Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -276 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -393 |
| Market (3 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -6.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -255 | -216 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmIndiana -23.5should be Indiana -23.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.5.
The spread
The total
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +1242 7¢ | -2042 95¢ |
All 7 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +1242 7¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Courtside | +23.5 -103 | 54.5 -108 | +1405 | -2433 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +1300 | -2800 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | +1160 | -2800 |
| Fliff | +23.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +1285 | — |
| ReBet | +24.5 -119 | 54.5 -114 | +810 | -2500 |
| theScore Bet | +22.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Indiana and Rutgers's last game | |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +605 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1205 |
| Market (6 books) | +23.5 | +2299 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -23.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2042 | -1436 | priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 4
13 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralColts -4.5should be Colts -4.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +174 35¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +174 35¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 46.5 -104 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | +190 | -230 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +180 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -110 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +173 | -226 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +177 | -222 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts ML, only $306 available; Washington Commanders +4.5, only $11 available; Indianapolis Colts -4.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +139 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +111 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +204 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | -205 | -193 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -143 57¢ | — |
All 11 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -143 57¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -136 | +116 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -142 | +111 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +113 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $265 available; New York Giants -2.5, only $12 available; Arizona Cardinals +2.5, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -205 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -298 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (10 books) | -2.5 | -127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -139 | -128 | -2.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -10.5should be Ravens -10.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -104 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -114 | -625 | +450 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -700 | +500 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -685 | +430 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 +101 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -676 | +430 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -614 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -649 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $0 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $11 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $143 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.0 | -440 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -435 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -421 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -437 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -579 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -10.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -575 | -428 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -5.5should be Bills -5.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -263 71¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -263 71¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -260 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -104 | -260 | +215 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -270 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 +100 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -250 | +189 |
| ReBet | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 | -244 | +194 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $241 available; Buffalo Bills -5.5, only $12 available; New England Patriots +5.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -206 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -224 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -184 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.5 | -235 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +5.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +210 | +217 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBears -3should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -191 64¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 43.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -190 | +160 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -190 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -186 | +144 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -186 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +147 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets ML, only $202 available; Chicago Bears -3.5, only $385 available; New York Jets +3.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -234 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -360 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -298 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -166 | -163 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -125 | — | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 50.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -118 | -144 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | -155 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -121 | 50.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -157 | +123 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 50.5 -110 | -154 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $280 available; Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, only $463 available; Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5, only $130 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -166 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -123 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +136 | +124 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +3should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -146 | +124 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 47.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -159 | +124 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -156 | +127 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans ML, only $491 available; Dallas Cowboys ML, only $1 available; Over 47.5, only $332 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -119 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +136 | +125 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +3should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -155 59¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | — | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 46 -108 | +122 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +3 -118 | 46.5 -104 | +128 | -152 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +120 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +116 | -148 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -120 | +118 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $275 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $3 available; Los Angeles Rams -2.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +101 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -118 | -124 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +128 | +121 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -10.5should be Vikings -10.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -524 83¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -120 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -524 83¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -120 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -108 | 43 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 42.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 43.5 -105 | -560 | +420 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -650 | +415 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -116 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -676 | +430 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -567 | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 | -649 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Miami Dolphins ML, only $0 available; Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $329 available; Miami Dolphins +10.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.0 | -456 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -444 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -441 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -361 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.5 | -563 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.5 | -102 | -101 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -524 | -433 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers -3should be 49ers -4 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty · 49ers, waitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 46 -109 | -155 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | — | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -112 | 46 -110 | -159 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3 -102 | 46.5 -110 | -146 | +124 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 46.5 -105 | -160 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -175 | +136 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -160 | +130 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -3.0 · -102 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos ML, only $2 available; San Francisco 49ers ML, only $219 available; Denver Broncos ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Demarcus Robinson (WR, 49ers), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -380 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -191 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -270 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3.0 | -102 | -125 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -146 | -180 | +4.9% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmChiefs -5.5should be Chiefs -5.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -107 | 45.5 -109 | +200 | -250 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +6 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +210 | -258 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 45.5 -118 | +198 | -240 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +195 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -105 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +191 | -250 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +195 | -246 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $31 available; Kansas City Chiefs ML, only $30 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $94 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +193 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +218 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +144 |
| Market (12 books) | +5.5 | +227 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +6.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +210 | +215 | -0.5% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmSeahawks -6.5should be Seahawks -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -7.5, only $336 available; Los Angeles Chargers +7.5, only $5 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $213 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Anthony Bradford (G, Seahawks) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -320 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -355 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -225 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -447 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.5 | -292 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 | -110 | -110 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -285 | -282 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pmLions -2.5should be Lions -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -103 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +114 45¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 49.5 -110 | +123 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -103 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 49.5 -110 | +123 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 49.5 -110 | +123 | -150 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +118 | -138 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +102 | 49.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +118 | -151 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +121 | -148 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions ML, only $415 available; Carolina Panthers +2.5, only $324 available; Detroit Lions -2.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Ben Bartch (G, Lions), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 5 more.
Detroit Lions has had 17 days off against 14, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +114 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (12 books) | +2.5 | +135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 52.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -120 | -121 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +130 | +125 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-350%-0.23 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 4 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty21-2843%-9.37 units49 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 20 of 32. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
7-10 · -4.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 4-6 | 40.0% | -2.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.2 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 21-28 | 42.9% | -9.4 u | |
| Not Nasty | 183 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-27 07:20.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.97 | 113 |
| FPI | 10.57 | 169 |
| The market | 10.65 | 230 |
| SP+ | 10.66 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 220 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 115 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 113 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 139 |
The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.
The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 12.00 | 33 |
| nfelo | 12.34 | 33 |
| Sagarin | 12.45 | 33 |
| FPI | 13.79 | 18 |
| Massey | 13.93 | 16 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 16 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 16 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 16 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 16 |
The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 120 | 13.4 | 34-46 (42%) | 22-25 (47%) |
| Massey | 123 | 12.6 | 27-34 (44%) | 8-20 (29%) |
| The blend | 125 | 12.8 | 26-36 (42%) | 10-19 (34%) |
NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 19 | 9.9 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 17 | 9.9 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 19 | 8.9 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Tomorrow, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 70 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
What's changed since Sat 26 Sep, 11:47pm
- NewPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies is now a pick: Pittsburgh Panthers +6.0 at -110.
- NewBYU Cougars at TCU Horned Frogs is now a pick: TCU Horned Frogs +7.5 at -110.
- NewCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats is new to the board: Cincinnati Bearcats +8.5 at -110.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 6.3Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
- → 0.5Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatsagainst the public
- → 0.5Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteerstoward Auburn Tigersagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 4%, give or take 22% (one standard error, 155 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 129 | 10.46 |
| SP+ | 169 | 10.66 |
| The market | 263 | 10.82 |
| FPI | 187 | 10.88 |
| Sagarin | 253 | 12.15 |
| nfelo | 33 | 12.34 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 119-120 | 50% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 5-6 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 848711 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.28 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 132 | 1.78 |
| DraftKings | 313 | 1.53 |
| FanDuel | 332 | 1.48 |
| BetOnline.ag | 287 | 1.47 |
| LowVig.ag | 279 | 1.47 |
| BetRivers | 317 | 1.40 |
| MyBookie.ag | 220 | 1.38 |
| ReBet | 103 | 1.36 |
| Bally Bet | 109 | 1.35 |
| betPARX | 109 | 1.34 |
| BetMGM | 283 | 1.24 |
| BetUS | 222 | 1.23 |
| Caesars | 254 | 1.19 |
| Fanatics | 253 | 1.17 |
| Bovada | 286 | 1.16 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 108 | 1.15 |
| theScore Bet | 106 | 1.15 |
| Courtside | 76 | 1.14 |
| TOM | 275 | 1.12 |
| Pinnacle | 285 | 1.10 |
| BetAnything | 93 | 0.98 |
| Fliff | 113 | 0.76 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.63 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 0.57 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.55 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 5 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated 3 days ago