Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsBACK THU
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOhio -3-110 at TOM+5.1%Sat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 9:14am at -3 -110. Now Ohio -3 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1.5 pts-4.5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -5Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3.5 -107 at KalshiNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOM, half a point worse, 3 cents better than the +3.5 -107 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Temple at South FloridaSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amStill a playSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Texas State at San Diego StateSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Mon 10:33pmDon't chaseSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel on Monday; now San Diego State +4 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is half a point worse and the price is 4 cents worse, from -106 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +4.5, you're set. It's a play again at +4.5 -106 or better.Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amStill a playSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Five Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Ohio -3, Pittsburgh +3.5 -107 at Kalshi, South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings and San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
UCF at Houston, UCF +12.5. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +4. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 4. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +4.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 46 (Navy at Air Force) at 3.6% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5, down 2 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Ohio at Kent State, Ohio -3. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
3 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
3 more later this week
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Baylor): BetMGM +4 at -108 (7.8%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -102 (7.7%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +4 at -110 (7.4%) · Caesars +4 at -114 (6.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.
Where, best first (Massachusetts): TOM -6 at -105 (6.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -5.5 at -110 (6.7%) · DraftKings -6 at -108 (6.1%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (5.6%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 53¢ (4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -5.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -6 (the games that land on 6); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -110 at FanDuel · 1.5 points away
Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel or Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM +12 at -108 (0.5%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (0.1%) · Caesars +12 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 58.5. The total has come down 2 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
7 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (3.1%) · BetMGM 58.5 at -112 (2.7%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -115 (2.0%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars 58.5 at -117 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (4.7%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (3.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -108 (2.7%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 53¢ (2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (1.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · FanDuel +104 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.1%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13 at -108 (1.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Fanatics or TOM -13 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -12.5 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13 (the games that land on 13); 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -108 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (0.7%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (0.5%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 46.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 47 (the games that land on 47); -118 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -106 (1.4%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 51¢ (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Sniff of Nasty · Sunday's preview, 4 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: 49ers to win, the Under 48.5, the Under 48. Open
Sniff of Nasty
NFL: FPI and Massey and nfelo have seen the last games, Sagarin hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
2.0% edge on nfelo, FPI and Massey. Sagarin hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (2.0%) · Caesars or Fanatics -2.5 at -120 (0.9%) · BetMGM -3 at -102 (0.8%) · DraftKings -3 at -105 (0.1%) · TOM -2.5 at -125 (-0.1%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. Sagarin hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -108 (1.6%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 51¢ (0.7%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -120 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. Sagarin hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 48 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (0.5%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (0.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 47.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. Sagarin hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 52 at -115 (0.3%) · BetMGM 51 at -105 (-0.5%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 51.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.7%).Moved closer since the Mon 28 Sep, 6:18pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Mon 28 Sep, 6:18pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Dolphins at Vikings Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Vikings -9.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from +11.0 to -10.5; the price from -110 to -107. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Rams at Eagles Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Eagles +3.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.5 to +3.0; the price from -105 to -110; the Nasty Number moved 1.2. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Lions at Panthers Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Panthers +3.5: 2.6 cents short at today's line, was 47.1. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Packers at Buccaneers Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Buccaneers +4.0: 4.0 cents short at today's line, was 32.3.The line went from -3.5 to +4.0; the price from -107 to -110; the Nasty Number moved 3.8. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Broncos at 49ers Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at 49ers -2.0: 0.5 points away, was out of reach.The Nasty Number moved 3.4. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Oregon State at Colorado State Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Dog at Colorado State +200: 3.2 cents short, was 5.8. - Washington at USC Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Washington +9.5: 3.6 cents short at today's line, was 5.8.The price from +100 to -103. - Colts at Commanders Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at Colts -3.0: 4.6 cents short at today's line, was 6.2.The price from -126 to -120. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 2 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Thu Oct 1
3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico StateCFB Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pmWestern Kentucky +2should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico State by 2, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico State by 1 to New Mexico State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -111 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -130 | +111 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -111 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -109 | 56.5 -109 | -130 | +108 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 57 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -111 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2 -109 | 56.5 -109 | -130 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -132 | +107 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -108 | 57 -112 | -129 | +109 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -103 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -114 | -125 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -107 | 57 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -136 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -130 | +111 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -119 | -139 | +109 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 57.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 69°F.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -103 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +182 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +115 | +112 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.0 | -109 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.8.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.4 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +2.5should be Browns +2 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -103 49¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 38 -115 | +127 | -143 |
All 26 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -103 49¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +123 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +3 -125 | 38.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +123 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +123 | -148 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -106 | 38.5 -110 | +123 | -145 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -103 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -105 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 39.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -108 | 38.5 -102 | +120 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 38 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +103 | 38.5 -107 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 38 -110 | +114 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 38 -115 | +127 | -143 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 38.5 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | +123 | -144 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -120 | 37.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Browns, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +2.5 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 75°F.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $102 available; Over 38.5, only $19 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers), Tyson Campbell (CB, Browns) and 1 more.
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +147 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 37.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +2.5 | -102 | -106 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +120 | +118 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 38.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 38.5 here against 38.1 consensus.
North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at TulsaCFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pmTulsa -1should be Tulsa -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 58 -104 | -114 | -106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | — | -116 52¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -1 -111 | 58 +100 | -118 | +101 |
All 22 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -108 | 58 -104 | -114 | -106 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | — | -116 52¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -110 | 57.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetAnything | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| BetMGM | -1 -105 | 57.5 -108 | -115 | -105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -108 | 58 -104 | -114 | -106 |
| betPARX | -1 -110 | 57.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | -105 |
| BetUS | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Bovada | -1 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1 -108 | 57.5 -115 | -118 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -110 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 +100 | 57.5 -112 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -118 | -102 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -104 | 58 -102 | -114 | -106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -116 | -105 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -111 | 58 +100 | -118 | +101 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -109 | 57.5 -114 | -119 | -107 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 77% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green +1.5, only $26 available; Over 57.5, only $297 available; Under 57.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -179 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +132 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.0 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Texas Mean Green +1.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | North Texas Mean Green ML | +100 | +102 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -104 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 2
3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmPittsburgh +3.5 -107 at KalshiBet it · now Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +3.5 -107Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Pittsburgh +3.5 -107 at Kalshi. Bet it. Pittsburgh +3 · -104 at TOM, half a point worse, 3 cents better than the +3.5 -107 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 54.5 -117 | -170 | +144 |
All 22 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 55.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -106 | 55 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 54.5 -115 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -106 | 55 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -107 | 55 -110 | -177 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 55 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -112 | -164 | +139 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -110 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 54.5 -112 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 55 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -112 | 54.5 -114 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -170 | +138 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +101 | 54.5 -117 | -170 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -174 | +135 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5, only $42 available; Under 55.5, only $57 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +120 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +3.0 | -104 | -117 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +135 | +121 | +2.8% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at DelawareCFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pmDelaware +7should be Delaware +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 50 -108 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +217 30¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 50 -107 | +227 | -285 |
All 21 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -105 | 50 -108 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +217 30¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 49.5 -112 | +225 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -105 | 50 -108 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +225 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 50 -110 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| Caesars | +7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +220 | -275 |
| Courtside | +7 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +225 | -263 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 49.5 -115 | +220 | -270 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -280 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 49.5 -108 | +225 | -280 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -101 | 50 -106 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 50 -110 | +232 | -295 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -106 | 50 -107 | +227 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -125 | 49.5 -116 | +226 | -300 |
Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +7.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Delaware Blue Hens +7.5, only $28 available; Under 50.5, only $364 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +180 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +193 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +7.0 | -105 | -111 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +215 | +220 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -108 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: moneyline +225 here against +258 consensus.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pmPenn State -3should be Penn State -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 3, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Penn State by 2.5 to Penn State by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -116 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -112 | 45.5 -107 | +125 | -146 |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -116 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +116 | -141 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 45.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -116 | 45 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +116 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | +115 | -143 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -117 | 45.5 -112 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +3 -116 | 45.5 -106 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +3 -118 | 45.5 -108 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +116 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -112 | 45 -114 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +121 | -149 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -112 | 45.5 -107 | +125 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | +115 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +269 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +3.0 | -116 | -108 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +120 | +130 | -2.0% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.5 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 3
51 gamesBest: Ohio -3.0, Nasty PickOhio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Ohio -5 · getting 2 pts · -110 at TOM · was -3.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Ohio -3.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 50.5 -114 | +136 | -160 |
All 20 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 50.5 -112 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -107 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -109 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 51 -105 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 50.5 -110 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 50.5 -112 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -114 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -103 | 50.5 -114 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -102 | 50.5 -114 | +136 | -160 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -116 | +126 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 25% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +323 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +407 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -110 | -135 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -158 | -186 | +3.8% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsBet it · now South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Bet it. South Florida -6 · -110 at DraftKings, half a point worse than the -5.5 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says South Florida by 6, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -250 70¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50 -105 | -241 | +197 |
All 22 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 50 -105 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -250 70¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -6 -112 | 50.5 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 50 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 50 -105 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6 -112 | 50.5 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -113 | 50.5 -114 | -235 | +185 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 50 -105 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | -230 | +185 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -106 | 50 -103 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 50 -110 | -248 | +196 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -105 | 50 -105 | -241 | +197 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 49.5 -116 | -260 | +187 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -230 | +195 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $53 available; Temple Owls ML, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -411 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -393 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.0 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -6.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.7% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -240 | -260 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -105 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.3 consensus.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pmCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsBet it · now Cincinnati +7 · -104 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called at +7 -102Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Bet it. Cincinnati +7 · -104 at Caesars, 2 cents worse than the +7 -102 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.5.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 55 -109 | -291 | +232 |
All 21 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -116 52¢ | -276 72¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +225 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -114 | 55 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -7 -118 | 54.5 -112 | -295 | +225 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -117 | 55 -112 | -290 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 55.5 +100 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 55.5 -102 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 55 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -275 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -110 | 55 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 55 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -114 | 55 -109 | -291 | +232 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | -310 | +216 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -300 | +250 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +7.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $213 available; Under 54.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -164 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -264 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -104 | -116 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +230 | +210 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20.
Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelDon't chase · now San Diego State +4 · -110 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called at +4.5 -106Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel on Monday; now San Diego State +4 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is half a point worse and the price is 4 cents worse, from -106 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +4.5, you're set. It's a play again at +4.5 -106 or better. Market says Texas State by 4, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 3.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.0 | +174 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +157 | +147 | +1.7% |
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +4.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmBaylor +4should be Baylor +2 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +4.0: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +4.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -182 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (19 books) | -4.0 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +160 | +115 | +8.0% |
| Spread | Baylor Bears +4.0 | -110 | -148 | +7.4% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.2.
Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at MassachusettsCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMassachusetts -6should be Massachusetts -7.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Massachusetts -6.0: Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 6.8% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Massachusetts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -111 | 48.5 -111 | -223 | +183 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 | -229 68¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -109 | 48.5 -109 | -230 | +180 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -210 | +180 |
| betPARX | -6 -109 | 48.5 -109 | -230 | +180 |
| BetRivers | -6 -109 | 48.5 -110 | -230 | +180 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +185 |
| Courtside | -6 -106 | 48.5 -108 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 48.5 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -220 | +180 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -215 | +176 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -225 | +180 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -101 | 48.5 -103 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -111 | 48.5 -111 | -223 | +183 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -109 | 48.5 -114 | -255 | +184 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -6.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -5.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Massachusetts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles +5.5, only $36 available; Over 48.5, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.0 | -483 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -217 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.0 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -6.0 | -105 | -138 | +6.8% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -210 | -281 | +6.0% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-27 22:42.
TOM: spread -6.0 here against -5.6 consensus.
Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at HoustonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUCF +12.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UCF +10.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.5: all 4 ratings 6.1 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 51 -112 | -492 | +357 |
All 21 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -11.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -458 81¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -560 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -113 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +350 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -109 | 51 -113 | -560 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 51 -114 | -560 | +380 |
| BetUS | -12 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +355 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 51 -115 | -490 | +355 |
| Caesars | -12 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -106 | 51.5 +100 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -465 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -109 | 51.5 -103 | -450 | +350 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -549 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -108 | 51 -112 | -492 | +357 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | -575 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
A play at +14.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +11.5, only $375 available; Under 51.5, only $126 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -195 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -284 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -439 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +12.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +358 | +368 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pmFresno State to winMoved our way · 1.5 ptsour data says 50 in 100 · +110A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At +110 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State to win · +110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -185 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +110 | -100 | +2.4% |
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +2.5 | -110 | -121 | +2.3% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42.
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMiami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be Miami (OH) -14 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was -14.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 46 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 43 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 43 -110 | -581 | +406 |
All 21 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 43 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -564 84¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -670 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -108 | 42.5 -115 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -670 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -120 | -670 | +440 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -103 | 42.5 -110 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 42.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -649 | +440 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -108 | 43 -110 | -581 | +406 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -699 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.4 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1623 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -575 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -723 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -388 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -575 | -503 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at LouisianaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmOver 47should be 48.2 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Louisiana's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -308 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -231 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5 | -110 | -114 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -251 | -245 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmOver 46Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 47.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Army's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +112 | -131 |
All 20 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -108 | 46.5 -107 | +107 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2 -108 | 46.5 -107 | +107 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 46.5 -108 | +107 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 46 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -108 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 46.5 -105 | +105 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +112 | -131 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 46.5 -114 | +104 | -137 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
Marked: best for Army, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 73% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 1.2 away from Army, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $378 available; Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $45 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +177 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -120 | -124 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Army Black Knights -1.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.6.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air ForceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 46Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 48.3 · getting 2.6 pts · was 49A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 12.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 3 to Air Force by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -117 | -162 | +137 |
All 20 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -121 53¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 45.5 -113 | -165 | +133 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -108 | -165 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -104 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 45.5 -113 | -165 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 45.5 -113 | -165 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -106 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 46.5 -108 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +102 | 46.5 -106 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +100 | 46 -108 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -176 | +143 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -117 | -162 | +137 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -114 | -184 | +137 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 46.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -3.5, only $75 available; Navy Midshipmen +3.5, only $13 available; Under 45.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -158 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen +3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | +137 | +154 | -2.9% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.1.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 58.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 60.7 · getting 2.1 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 85°F, 44% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +175 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 65.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +5.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +180 | +188 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 0.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 51.5should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 51.5 -109 | -650 | +442 |
All 21 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -630 | +464 |
| betPARX | -14 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -113 | 51.5 -114 | -670 | +440 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -630 | +465 |
| Bovada | -14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Caesars | -14 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14 -112 | 51.5 -110 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -102 | 51.5 -106 | -670 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -630 | +464 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -676 | +460 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -111 | 51.5 -109 | -650 | +442 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 51.5 -114 | -725 | +430 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas).
Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -14.5, only $5 available; Under 51.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -393 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -618 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -405 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -577 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 55.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +14.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +464 | +472 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pmHawai'i -2.5should be Hawai'i -3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52 -102 | -146 | +124 |
All 21 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 51.5 -109 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 51.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 51.5 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -102 | 52 -102 | -146 | +124 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -109 | -154 | +116 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 51.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i -2.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -187 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -187 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 48.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -115 | -132 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -150 | -160 | +1.6% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 5.8.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Massey is the holdout at Hawai'i by 2.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +13.5should be Iowa +13 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +14Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +13.5 · +100 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Iowa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +402 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +310 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +544 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +13.5 | +100 | -102 | +0.5% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +450 | +433 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 1.8.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmSouth Alabama -14should be South Alabama -15 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 57 -109 | -639 | +436 |
All 19 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 57 -115 | -615 | +455 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -105 | 57 -115 | -615 | +460 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 56.5 -110 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 56.5 -112 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -115 | 57.5 -112 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -101 | 57 -114 | -615 | +455 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -108 | 57 -109 | -639 | +436 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -109 | 56.5 -116 | -649 | +400 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 85% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -570 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -798 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -622 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -569 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -14.0 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -632 | -542 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.4.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmTexas Tech -13.5should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was -16Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -111 | 50 -111 | +396 | -563 |
All 21 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +398 19¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -525 |
| betPARX | +13 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -114 | 50.5 -112 | +390 | -560 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +405 | -525 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| Caesars | +13 -109 | 50.5 -107 | +400 | -530 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | +413 | -515 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -112 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -535 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | +390 | -530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -104 | 50.5 -108 | +400 | -525 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +420 | -599 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -111 | 50 -111 | +396 | -563 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | +390 | -649 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for Texas Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas Tech -13.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened +16.0, now +13.5. The market has moved 2.5 away from Texas Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1116 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +368 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +430 |
| Market (19 books) | +13.5 | +496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5 | -103 | -106 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -542 | -472 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at WisconsinCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30amMichigan State +10should be Michigan State +9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -381 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -204 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -374 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +10.0 | -105 | -107 | +0.4% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +312 | +316 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmIllinois -10should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 60.5 to 61.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -111 | 61.5 -108 | -414 | +311 |
All 20 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 61.5 -112 51¢ | -404 79¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -109 | 60.5 -115 | -435 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 61.5 -108 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 61 -115 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -10 -109 | 60.5 -115 | -435 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -110 | 60.5 -117 | -435 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -115 | 61.5 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 61.5 -106 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 61.5 -108 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 61.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 60.5 -115 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 61 -114 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 61.5 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -111 | 61.5 -108 | -414 | +311 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 61.5 -114 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Purdue Boilermakers +10.5, only $2 available; Under 61.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -657 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -423 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -365 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 66.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -10.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -380 | -377 | -0.1% |
| Total | Over 61.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.9.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amIowa State -2.5should be Iowa State -3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +0.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -407 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa State Cyclones -2.5 | -122 | -134 | +2.3% |
| Moneyline | Iowa State Cyclones ML | -154 | -163 | +1.3% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmColorado State +6should be Colorado State +6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61 to 62. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +209 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +223 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +6.5 | -104 | -105 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +200 | +202 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.5.
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConnCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUConn +6.5should be UConn +5.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 +101 | 51 -102 | +203 | -250 |
All 21 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -107 | 51.5 -108 | +185 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6 -107 | 51.5 -108 | +185 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -108 | 51.5 -109 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +205 | -239 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +185 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 51 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +208 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6 +101 | 51 -102 | +203 | -250 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 50.5 -119 | +198 | -275 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UConn, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -6.5, only $13 available; Over 50.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | -100 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +193 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +118 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +200 | +192 | +0.9% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +6.5 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmKentucky +2.5should be Kentucky +2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -107 | -144 | +123 |
All 22 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -150 | +123 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 53.5 -109 | -150 | +123 |
| BetRivers | -3 -107 | 53.5 -110 | -152 | +123 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -117 | 53.5 -112 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -110 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -112 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -112 | -146 | +122 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 53.5 -108 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -146 | +119 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -118 | 53.5 -107 | -144 | +123 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 53.5 -114 | -152 | +114 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 86°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.4 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats +2.5, only $2 available; Over 53.5, only $112 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -134 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +125 | +121 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +3.0 | -115 | -116 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -6should be Alabama -6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -109 | 59.5 -116 | +188 | -229 |
All 20 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 -116 52¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +189 33¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -113 | 60.5 -108 | +190 | -235 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 61 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +6 -108 | 60.5 -108 | +188 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -111 | 60 -115 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -113 | 60.5 -108 | +190 | -235 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 60.5 -109 | +185 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 60 -115 | +190 | -225 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 60 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | +6 -108 | 60.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -110 | 60.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 +100 | 60.5 -105 | +190 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -107 | 60 -114 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +184 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -109 | 59.5 -116 | +188 | -229 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 60.5 -116 | +176 | -242 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -115 | 60.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $493 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +293 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +163 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +325 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 63.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -6.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -230 | -208 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 60.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUnder 55.5should be 54.1 · getting 1.3 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -106 | -1499 | +798 |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -112 51¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 55.5 +100 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 55.5 -102 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -105 | 55 -108 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1408 | +760 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -106 | -1499 | +798 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -1587 | +670 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -878 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -581 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -822 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -563 |
| Market (18 books) | -21.0 | -1314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +21.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +900 | +888 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at KansasCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amKansas -18.5should be Kansas -19 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 | 50.5 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -1256 | +709 |
All 20 books
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -18.5 | 50.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -19 -110 | 50.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -1200 | +825 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
| betPARX | -19 -110 | 50.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -19 -110 | 50.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +725 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | -1252 | +842 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -105 | 50.5 -112 | -1350 | +800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -1450 | +810 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 50.5 -108 | -1300 | +795 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -1205 | +700 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -110 | 50.5 -107 | -1256 | +709 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 50.5 -116 | -1408 | +620 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.
Kalshi thin: Kansas Jayhawks -18.5, only $54 available; Over 50.5, only $300 available; Kansas Jayhawks ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -836 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -567 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1761 |
| Massey | -21.5 | -1146 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks -18.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | -1300 | -810 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -6should be Michigan -6 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 | +174 35¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -116 | 43 -110 | +180 | -217 |
All 21 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 | +174 35¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | +180 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +181 | -212 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | +180 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -113 | 43.5 -112 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 43 -108 | +181 | -212 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +198 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -116 | 43 -110 | +180 | -217 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 43.5 -111 | +189 | -260 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +195 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +274 |
| Market (19 books) | +6.0 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -5.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -210 | -202 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -21.5should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | +848 | -1644 |
All 20 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 +109 46¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Bally Bet | +21.5 -113 | 48 -108 | +1200 | — |
| BetAnything | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +21 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +1100 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21 -105 | 47.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +21.5 -113 | 48 -108 | +1200 | — |
| BetRivers | +21.5 -114 | 48 -109 | +1150 | — |
| BetUS | +21 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +1000 | -1800 |
| Bovada | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +850 | -1800 |
| Courtside | +21 -106 | 47.5 -106 | +1064 | -1635 |
| DraftKings | +21 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +1000 | -1800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +21.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1050 | -1800 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -120 | 47.5 -106 | +1100 | -2500 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +21.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +1200 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +21 -101 | 47.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +900 | -1887 |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -107 | +848 | -1644 |
| ReBet | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -114 | +780 | -2273 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1319 |
| FPI | +20.5 | +921 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +609 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1202 |
| Market (18 books) | +21.5 | +1520 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Carolina Tar Heels +21.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | North Carolina Tar Heels ML | +1242 | +1109 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.0.
The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake ForestCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amWake Forest -13should be Wake Forest -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -551 | +390 |
All 20 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 -116 52¢ | -524 83¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -13 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +390 |
| Courtside | -12.5 -119 | 53.5 -108 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -549 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -551 | +390 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -599 | +370 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest).
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5, only $49 available; Under 53.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -509 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -440 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -369 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -494 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | -500 | -437 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45amOver 50.5should be 51.7 · getting 1.2 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 24.5 to Georgia by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +105 47¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -24 +101 | 50.5 -106 | -2581 | +1127 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -24 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +105 47¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -24 -107 | 51 -109 | — | +1600 |
| BetAnything | -24.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -24 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -2500 | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -24 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -3000 | +1256 |
| betPARX | -24 -107 | 51 -109 | — | +1600 |
| BetRivers | -24 -109 | 51 -110 | — | +1500 |
| BetUS | -24.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -3000 | +1300 |
| Bovada | -23.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -2800 | +1100 |
| Courtside | -24.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -23.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 6¢ +1150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -24 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2800 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -104 | 51.5 -102 | — | +1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -23.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -24 -106 | 50.5 -108 | -3000 | +1256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -24.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1161 |
| Pinnacle | -24 +101 | 50.5 -106 | -2581 | +1127 |
| ReBet | -24.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | -3030 | +880 |
| theScore Bet | -24.5 +100 | 49.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 79°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Georgia).
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $405 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -1772 |
| FPI | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -823 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -844 |
| Market (18 books) | -24.0 | -2374 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs -24.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | -3000 | -1632 | priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 7.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at BuffaloCFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | — | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -111 | 47 -107 | +414 | -596 |
All 20 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | — | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -115 | 47.5 -113 | +510 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -109 | 46 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +14 -115 | 47.5 -113 | +510 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14 -117 | 47.5 -114 | +510 | -835 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -115 | 47 -105 | +425 | -600 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -106 | 46.5 -108 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -114 | 46.5 -112 | +440 | -610 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -105 | 46 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -649 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -111 | 47 -107 | +414 | -596 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -109 | 46.5 -116 | +420 | -725 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bulls ML, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +284 |
| FPI | +13.5 | +452 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +441 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +387 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +549 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +13.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +446 | +437 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pmToledo -19should be Toledo -20 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +711 | -1263 |
All 21 books
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +19.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +19 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +825 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -110 | 51 -110 | +795 | -1300 |
| betPARX | +19.5 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +900 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +19 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +780 | -1300 |
| Bovada | +19 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +725 | -1300 |
| Caesars | +19 -109 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1450 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +842 | -1252 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +19.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +800 | -1300 |
| FanDuel | +19.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +800 | -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +900 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +19 -106 | 51 -108 | +795 | -1300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +764 | -1442 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -105 | 51.5 -107 | +711 | -1263 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -119 | 51.5 -114 | +620 | -1408 |
| theScore Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 63°F, 26% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1344 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1212 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +596 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +827 |
| Market (19 books) | +19.0 | +1142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -19.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1350 | -905 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
The line is +19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central MichiganCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCentral Michigan -7should be Central Michigan -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Central Michigan by 6 to Central Michigan by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 47 -110 | -262 | +211 |
All 20 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 47.5 -107 50¢ | -250 70¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | -240 | +188 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -7 +100 | 47 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -118 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | -245 | +198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -240 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 47 -103 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 47 -110 | -262 | +211 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 47.5 -109 | -280 | +199 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips +6.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -219 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -225 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -232 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +199 | +227 | -2.8% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -7should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -289 | +230 |
All 20 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -114 | 54 -112 | -286 | +225 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7 -114 | 54 -112 | -286 | +225 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 54 -113 | -295 | +225 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -285 | +235 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 53.5 -114 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 54.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -111 | 54 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -295 | +232 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -289 | +230 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -109 | 54.5 -111 | -310 | +220 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 53.5 -115 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 81°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Auburn).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, only $15 available; Over 54.5, only $425 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -302 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -289 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -263 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -7.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -285 | -263 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLVCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUNLV -2.5should be UNLV -2.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from UNLV by 2 to UNLV by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 52.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 53 -108 | -141 | +120 |
All 21 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 52.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -130 | +106 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -130 | +106 |
| BetRivers | -2 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -130 | +106 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 53 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 53 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 53.5 -106 | -136 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -118 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -130 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 53 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 53 -108 | -141 | +120 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -111 | -143 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the UNLV side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward UNLV).
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels -2.5, only $34 available; Over 52.5, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -110 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +143 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +2.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +115 | +120 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.4.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at CharlotteCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCharlotte +20should be Charlotte +19.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Pinnacle | +20 -105 | 54 -109 | +750 | -1366 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Bally Bet | +20.5 -112 | 54.5 -107 | +950 | -2500 |
| BetAnything | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +20 -108 | 53.5 -118 | +900 | -1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +20 -109 | 54 -110 | +836 | -1400 |
| betPARX | +20.5 -112 | 54.5 -107 | +950 | -2500 |
| BetRivers | +20.5 -113 | 54.5 -107 | +950 | -2500 |
| BetUS | +20 -110 | 54 -110 | +825 | -1400 |
| Bovada | +20 -105 | 54 -110 | +750 | -1400 |
| Courtside | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +897 | -1339 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -112 | 54.5 -105 | +850 | -1450 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +20.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +850 | -1400 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | +890 | -1700 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +20.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +1000 | -2500 |
| LowVig.ag | +20 -105 | 54 -108 | +836 | -1400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +20.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +740 | -1299 |
| Pinnacle | +20 -105 | 54 -109 | +750 | -1366 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -109 | 53.5 -119 | +650 | -1493 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | +750 | -1400 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 83°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Memphis Tigers -20.5, only $12 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $373 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +27.5 | +2279 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +592 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +566 |
| Massey | +18.5 | +781 |
| Market (18 books) | +20.0 | +1233 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +20.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +843 | +862 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMissouri +5.5should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | — | — | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -112 | 56.5 -102 | +176 | -213 |
All 21 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +5.5 | — | — | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -109 | 56 -112 | +163 | -205 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +177 | -205 |
| betPARX | +5 -109 | 56 -112 | +163 | -205 |
| BetRivers | +5 -110 | 56 -113 | +163 | -205 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +175 | -205 |
| Bovada | +5 -110 | 56 -115 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 56 -110 | +172 | -205 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -121 | 56.5 -106 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -105 | 56.5 -108 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +176 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +165 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -111 | 56 -108 | +177 | -205 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +174 | -218 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -112 | 56.5 -102 | +176 | -213 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 56.5 -114 | +166 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F, 25% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $222 available; Over 56.5, only $12 available; Under 56.5, only $393 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +124 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +144 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +152 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +194 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +175 | +182 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | +102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.3.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmVirginia -2.5should be Virginia -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +117 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 51.5 -110 | +121 | -142 |
All 20 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +117 | -142 |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 51.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +122 | -142 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -106 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -101 | 51.5 -103 | +122 | -142 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +116 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +101 | 51.5 -110 | +121 | -142 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 51.5 -111 | +112 | -149 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 88°F, 46% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +213 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -142 | -125 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia State -1.5should be Georgia State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 2.8 toward Georgia State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -235 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +127 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia State Panthers -1.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia State Panthers ML | -122 | -111 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.6.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 46should be 43.8 · getting 2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Wyoming).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.5 | -1294 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -738 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -722 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -471 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1045 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wyoming Cowboys +18.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Wyoming Cowboys ML | +736 | +777 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pmJames Madison -18.5should be James Madison -19.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 -126 54¢ | — | -967 90¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -1059 | +630 |
All 21 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -17.5 -126 54¢ | — | -967 90¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -107 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -18 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -1000 | +675 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -115 | 55 -110 | -1000 | +661 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -107 | -1667 | +850 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| Bovada | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Caesars | -18.5 -107 | 55 -109 | -1000 | +650 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -103 | 55.5 +102 | -943 | +679 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -105 | 55.5 +100 | -1000 | +650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -18.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -950 | +650 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -112 | -1200 | +720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -1600 | +850 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -111 | 55 -108 | -1000 | +661 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -1059 | +630 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -114 | 54.5 -119 | -1205 | +570 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd +17.5, only $35 available; Over 55.5, only $49 available; Under 55.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1708 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -737 |
| Market (19 books) | -18.5 | -952 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 57.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -18.5 | -105 | -107 | +0.6% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -950 | -861 | priced at 90 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNebraska -14.5should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -699 | +467 |
All 21 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -15 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -113 | 52 -113 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -113 | 52 -113 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -115 | 52 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -103 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -112 | 52.5 -105 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -109 | 52 -112 | -700 | +505 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -752 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | -699 | +467 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -114 | 52.5 -109 | -800 | +460 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.6 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -549 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -553 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -424 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -614 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -682 | -536 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New MexicoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNew Mexico -22.5should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -104 | -1985 | +957 |
All 20 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23 -108 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1200 |
| BetAnything | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -22.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -2000 | +1150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23 -108 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -2250 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -22.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Courtside | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -1882 | +1177 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -2100 | +1100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -22.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2800 | +1160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -106 | 48.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -104 | -1985 | +957 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -111 | 48.5 -111 | -2500 | +820 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.5 | -2271 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1842 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -866 |
| Market (18 books) | -22.5 | -1801 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -22.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -1684 | -1534 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmBYU -6.5should be BYU -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6 to BYU by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +204 | -251 |
All 20 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +200 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -107 | 48.5 -105 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +190 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +205 | -245 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -106 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -104 | +190 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -103 | 48.5 -103 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +204 | -251 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -114 | +199 | -280 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $427 available; Over 47.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +201 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +203 | +210 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 3.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmGeorgia Southern -2.5should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 54 -109 | +114 | -134 |
All 20 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -114 | 53.5 -112 | +100 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2 -114 | 53.5 -112 | +100 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 53.5 -113 | +100 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 54 -108 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +108 | -132 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -106 | 54 -109 | +114 | -134 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 53.5 -119 | +104 | -137 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 34% chance of rain.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +110 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +110 | +116 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmUTSA -11.5should be UTSA -11.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 11.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 10 to UTSA by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 | — | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -109 | 56 -109 | +348 | -477 |
All 20 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 | — | -458 81¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -113 | 54.5 -117 | +360 | -500 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +344 | -440 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -113 | 54.5 -117 | +360 | -500 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 54.5 -118 | +360 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +345 | -440 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -113 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 55.5 -115 | +350 | -455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -105 | 55.5 -108 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +350 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 56 -108 | +344 | -440 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 55 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -109 | 56 -109 | +348 | -477 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 55.5 -114 | +330 | -526 |
| theScore Bet | +12.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty. The line went from +11.0 to +11.5.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UTSA).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $12 available; Rice Owls ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +404 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +382 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +452 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.5 | +429 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 58.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -475 | -398 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.2.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmBoise State -20.5should be Boise State -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -829 |
| FPI | -20.5 | -914 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -865 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -454 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1309 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +21.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +1060 | +906 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmMiami -16.5should be Miami -16.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 | — | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -107 | 49 -103 | +549 | -872 |
All 19 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 | — | +573 14¢ | -719 87¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -910 |
| BetAnything | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +16.5 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +575 | -750 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 49 -105 | +590 | -860 |
| betPARX | +17 -112 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -910 |
| BetRivers | +17 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +580 | -860 |
| Bovada | +16.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +550 | -850 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -106 | 48.5 -110 | +572 | -761 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -108 | 48.5 -112 | +550 | -800 |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +575 | -850 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -104 | 48.5 -110 | +580 | -880 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +600 | -900 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -101 | 49 -103 | +590 | -860 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +547 | -839 |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 -107 | 49 -103 | +549 | -872 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 48.5 -114 | +520 | -1000 |
| theScore Bet | +16.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +550 | -900 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers +16.5, only $15 available; Over 49.5, only $495 available; Under 49.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +797 |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +284 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +315 |
| Market (18 books) | +16.5 | +758 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +16.5 | -104 | -100 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +577 | +595 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.2.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmUSC -9.5should be USC -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9.5, the Nasty Number says USC by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 10 to USC by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56.5 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -112 | 57.5 -107 | -379 | +289 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -9.5 -116 52¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -110 | 58 -108 | -420 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -105 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -10 -110 | 58 -108 | -420 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -10 -112 | 58 -109 | -420 | +300 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -115 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 57.5 -112 | -360 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 57.5 -108 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -106 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 57.5 -114 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 58 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -112 | 57.5 -107 | -379 | +289 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 57.5 -116 | -400 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 +100 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -286 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -352 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.5 | -345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Huskies +9.5 | -103 | -101 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Washington Huskies ML | +294 | +310 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmIndiana -24should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +24 +100 | 56 -113 | +1101 | -2484 |
All 21 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +24 -109 | 55.5 -108 | +1300 | — |
| BetAnything | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +24 -108 | 55.5 -118 | +1300 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +24 -105 | 55.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | +24 -109 | 55.5 -108 | +1300 | — |
| BetRivers | +24 -110 | 55.5 -109 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +24 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +1150 | -2400 |
| Bovada | +24.5 -115 | 56 -115 | +1000 | -2500 |
| Caesars | +24.5 -117 | 55.5 -117 | — | — |
| Courtside | +24.5 -116 | 55.5 -113 | +1290 | -2122 |
| DraftKings | +24.5 -118 | 55.5 -115 | +1200 | -2400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +24.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +24.5 -115 | 56 -110 | +1300 | -2500 |
| FanDuel | +24.5 -118 | 55.5 -114 | +1280 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +23.5 +100 | 55.5 -110 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +24 -101 | 55.5 -103 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | +970 | -2273 |
| Pinnacle | +24 +100 | 56 -113 | +1101 | -2484 |
| ReBet | +24.5 -111 | 55.5 -116 | +830 | -2500 |
| theScore Bet | +24.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F, 32% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Indiana).
Kalshi thin: Rutgers Scarlet Knights ML, only $229 available; Indiana Hoosiers ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2008 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +594 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1205 |
| Market (19 books) | +24.0 | +2161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -24.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2500 | -1713 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.
The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sun Oct 4
14 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · 49ers, Broncos at 49ersDenver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers to winour data says 61 in 100 · -142Sniff of Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3. At -142 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -110 | -151 | +126 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -118 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +130 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -110 | -151 | +126 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -110 | -151 | +131 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 46.5 -110 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 46.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 45.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 -107 | -151 | +131 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -155 | +121 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -118 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 46.5 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 46.5 -110 | -149 | +126 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -105 | 46.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -142 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 81°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 46.5, only $53 available; San Francisco 49ers -2.5, only $191 available; Over 46.5, only $192 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -185 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -350 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game | |
| Massey | -5.0 | -210 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -142 | -155 | +2.2% |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | -115 | -125 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmUnder 52should be 50.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 50Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 52.0. Massey and FPI say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Jaguars too: market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2, but at -101 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 52 -105 | -139 | +119 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 51 -108 | -142 | +123 |
All 26 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -119 | 52 -105 | -139 | +119 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2 -112 | 51.5 -107 | -130 | +107 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 51 -112 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 52 -105 | -139 | +119 |
| betPARX | -2 -112 | 51.5 -107 | -130 | +107 |
| BetRivers | -2 -112 | 51.5 -107 | -130 | +107 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 52 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | -141 | +119 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -132 | +112 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 52 -102 | -139 | +119 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 51 -108 | -142 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | — | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -109 | -139 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 35% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $350 available; Under 51.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Colbie Young (WR, Bengals), Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 6 more.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +107 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +124 | +115 | +1.9% |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | -101 | -108 | +1.7% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -115 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 51.2 consensus.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmUnder 48should be 46.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 45.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | — | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48 -102 | +184 | -217 |
All 26 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | — | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 48 -108 | +170 | -215 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | — | 47.5 -110 | +188 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 48 -108 | +170 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 48 -108 | +170 | -215 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -220 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -114 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -107 | 48 -107 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +174 | -228 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -107 | 48 -102 | +184 | -217 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -104 | — | +186 | -194 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +182 | -218 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).
Kalshi thin: Las Vegas Raiders +4.5, only $380 available; Las Vegas Raiders ML, only $196 available; Kansas City Chiefs -4.5, only $187 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Aidan O'Connell (Raiders), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +203 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.5 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +4.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +190 | +193 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +202 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +3should be Eagles +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -116 | 44.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 44.5 | — | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +108 | 44.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
All 26 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -116 | 44.5 -115 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 44.5 | — | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +128 | -155 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +135 | -155 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 45 -108 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -116 | 44.5 -115 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +128 | -155 |
| BetRivers | +3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +128 | -155 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 45 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 44.5 -117 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -110 | 44.5 -113 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | 44.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 44.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +136 | -162 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +105 | 44.5 -115 | +135 | -175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -112 | 44.5 -113 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 45 -110 | +127 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +108 | 44.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Polymarket | — | 44.5 -108 | — | -156 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -139 | 44.5 -120 | +132 | -156 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -105 | 44.5 +100 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $1 available; Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $129 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Tanner McKee (Eagles), Out; Cole Payton (Eagles), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Puka Nacua (WR, Rams), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams) and 4 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +110 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams and Philadelphia Eagles's last game | |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +133 | +123 | +1.9% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pmPanthers +3.5should be Panthers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Panthers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 50 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +116 | 50.5 -106 | +164 | -192 |
All 26 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -113 | 50 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 50 -115 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -106 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +158 | -188 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -105 | 50 -113 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +153 | -198 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +116 | 50.5 -106 | +164 | -192 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 50.5 | +170 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +160 | -190 |
Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -108 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions -3.5, only $11 available; Under 50.5, only $19 available; Over 50.5, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers) and 7 more.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game | |
| Massey | +3.0 | +149 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.5 | -108 | -117 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +160 | +151 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralColts -3should be Colts -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Colts by 3, the Nasty Number says Colts by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 47 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +111 | 47 -109 | +159 | -186 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +100 | 47 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -103 49¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +101 | 47 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 47 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -111 | 47 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -112 | 47.5 +100 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 47.5 -102 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -102 | +166 | -198 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | +145 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +112 | 47 -107 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +151 | -196 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +111 | 47 -109 | +159 | -186 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | — | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -109 | +158 | -188 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Commanders).
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts -3.5, only $45 available; Over 47.5, only $184 available; Under 47.5, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game | |
| Massey | +3.5 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -3.0 | -120 | -113 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | -185 | -165 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCardinals -1should be Cardinals -0.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cardinals by 1, the Nasty Number says Cardinals by 0.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Giants by 1 to Cardinals by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -103 | -117 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -103 | 44.5 -102 | +101 | -116 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -103 | -117 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -103 49¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +0.5 -112 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetAnything | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1 -112 | 44 -120 | -105 | -115 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -103 | -117 |
| betPARX | +0.5 -112 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetRivers | PK -109 | 44 -114 | -109 | -112 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -105 | 44 -115 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -107 | -110 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -118 | 44.5 -106 | -103 | -113 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -118 | 44.5 -108 | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +102 | 43.5 -115 | -108 | -110 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -120 | 44.5 -105 | -105 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -110 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -110 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -110 | 44 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -103 | 44.5 -107 | -103 | -117 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -108 | -118 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -103 | 44.5 -102 | +101 | -116 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 | 44.5 | +104 | — |
| ReBet | +0.5 -109 | 44.5 -110 | -104 | -113 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 65°F, 60% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Cardinals).
Kalshi thin: New York Giants +1.5, only $210 available; New York Giants +1.5, only $9 available; Over 44.5, only $131 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Deonte Banks (CB, Giants), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -178 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game | |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.0 | +101 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +1.0 | -108 | -105 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -103 | +101 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -11.5should be Ravens -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -103 | -649 | +461 |
All 26 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +520 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -685 | +497 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -715 | +500 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -685 | +495 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +480 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -108 | -715 | +545 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 60¢ -163 all-in | 90¢ -1150 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -770 | +530 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -855 | +510 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -103 | 43.5 -105 | -685 | +497 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -847 | +500 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -106 | 43.5 -103 | -649 | +461 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -614 | +567 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 66°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ravens).
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $12 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $14 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $309 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -450 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -441 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game | |
| Massey | -11.0 | -434 |
| Market (22 books) | -11.5 | -614 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +11.5 | -112 | -100 | -2.8% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +500 | +444 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -108 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -6.5should be Bills -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +104 | 48.5 -102 | -302 | +246 |
All 26 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -295 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -306 74¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -295 | +241 |
| betPARX | -7 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -7 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -295 | +245 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -7 -103 | 48.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 48.5 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -345 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 +104 | 48.5 -102 | -295 | +241 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +104 | 48.5 -102 | -302 | +246 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | — | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -295 | +242 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F, 33% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Bills).
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots +6.5, only $87 available; Over 48.5, only $264 available; Under 48.5, only $68 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Josh Allen (Bills), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Eli Raridon (TE, Patriots), Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G, Bills) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -245 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -254 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game | |
| Massey | -5.5 | -228 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6.5 | -115 | -104 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -295 | -270 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBears -3should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -123 | 43 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -116 | 43 -106 | -172 | +151 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -123 | 43 -110 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 43 -112 | -180 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 43 -108 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 43 -112 | -180 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -107 | 43 -112 | -180 | +148 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -103 | 42.5 -117 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -113 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -118 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -195 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 43 -107 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -188 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -116 | 43 -106 | -172 | +151 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 +100 | -178 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 42.5 -120 | -181 | +152 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 42.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Jets, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: New York Jets +3.5, only $127 available; Under 43.5, only $102 available; New York Jets ML, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 3 more.
New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -200 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -188 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New York Jets and Chicago Bears's last game | |
| Massey | -6.0 | -347 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 41.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -123 | -121 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -177 | -175 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmTexans -2.5should be Texans -2.5 · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 1.5 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 47.5 -115 | -141 | +123 |
All 26 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48 -110 | -141 | +121 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -136 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 48 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 47.5 -115 | -141 | +120 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -113 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48 -107 | -141 | +121 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -147 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 47.5 -115 | -141 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 +100 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -141 | +120 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Cowboys, now Not Nasty.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $142 available; Under 48.5, only $259 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -116 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -135 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +2.5 | -104 | -102 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +116 | +123 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at BuccaneersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmPackers -4should be Packers -3.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 4, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Packers by 3.5 to Packers by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +166 | -195 |
All 26 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 40.5 | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -110 | 40 -110 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -108 | 39.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -120 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4 -113 | 39.5 -115 | +160 | -193 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -125 | 39.5 -116 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 +100 | 39.5 -118 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 39.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 39.5 -110 | +162 | -194 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -105 | 39.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -105 | 39.5 -105 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +164 | -214 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -113 | 39.5 -110 | +166 | -195 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | +166 | -198 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -105 | 39.5 -105 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.
Moved down since the last run: was Sniff of Nasty · Packers, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Packers).
Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $4 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $175 available; Green Bay Packers -3.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers) and 6 more.
Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game | |
| Massey | +1.5 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 44.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +4.0 | -110 | -106 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +160 | +175 | -2.1% |
| Total | Over 39.5 | -108 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Green Bay Packers since 09-27 21:32; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -11should be Vikings -11 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 11, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 -106 | 38.5 -109 | -601 | +434 |
All 25 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11 -109 | 39 -114 | -670 | +475 |
| BetAnything | -11 -110 | 39 -110 | -635 | +485 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -635 | +466 |
| betPARX | -11 -109 | 39 -114 | -670 | +475 |
| BetRivers | -11 -109 | 39.5 -107 | -670 | +475 |
| BetUS | -11 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -635 | +470 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 38.5 -113 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -119 | 38.5 -108 | -715 | +545 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -105 | 38.5 -110 | -750 | +525 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 39.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 88¢ -900 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +460 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | -700 | +435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -11 -105 | 38.5 -102 | -635 | +466 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11 -110 | 39 -110 | -752 | +470 |
| Pinnacle | -11 -106 | 38.5 -109 | -601 | +434 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +100 | — | -567 | +525 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 39.5 -109 | -676 | +490 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -800 | +500 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Vikings).
Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $12 available; Over 38.5, only $3 available; Under 38.5, only $162 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.5 | -469 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -436 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game | |
| Massey | -10.5 | -424 |
| Market (21 books) | -11.0 | -570 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.5 | -107 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -564 | -437 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-26 15:12; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmSeahawks -7should be Seahawks -7 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -128 | 43 -106 | -328 | +264 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | -330 | +255 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 43 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | -330 | +267 |
| betPARX | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -107 | 43.5 -107 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -330 | +270 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 42.5 -118 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | -7 -110 | 42.5 -116 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -7 -112 | 42.5 -118 | -355 | +280 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| FanDuel | -7 -110 | 43.5 -106 | -350 | +280 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 42.5 -120 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -110 | 42.5 -109 | -330 | +267 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 43 -110 | -370 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -128 | 43 -106 | -328 | +264 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +113 | 42.5 -117 | -300 | +285 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 43.5 -109 | -350 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -110 | 42.5 -125 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $262 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers) and 7 more.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -280 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -319 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game | |
| Massey | -10.0 | -404 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -316 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +7.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +280 | +286 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.7 consensus; total 42.5 here against 43.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Oct 5
1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Under, Falcons at SaintsAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pmUnder 48.5should be 47.3 · getting 1.2 pts · was 47.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. Massey and FPI say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -3 +106 | 48.5 -103 | -147 | +130 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +128 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -112 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 48 -110 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 48 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 48.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 48.5 -102 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -109 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48.5 -110 | -156 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +106 | 48.5 -103 | -147 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 48.5 +100 | -144 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -153 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons +2.5, only $12 available; Atlanta Falcons ML, only $10 available; Atlanta Falcons +2.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Barion Brown (WR, Saints) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -192 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game | |
| Massey | -3.0 | -158 |
| Market (21 books) | -2.5 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -2.5 | -120 | -114 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -148 | -142 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -108 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 4-6 | 40.0% | -2.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 4-4 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 21-29 | 42.0% | -10.4 u | |
| Not Nasty | 193 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-29 09:45.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.97 | 113 |
| FPI | 10.57 | 169 |
| The market | 10.65 | 230 |
| SP+ | 10.66 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 220 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 115 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 113 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 139 |
The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.
The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 31 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 10.46 | 48 |
| Massey | 10.69 | 31 |
| nfelo | 10.86 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 10.88 | 48 |
| FPI | 11.26 | 33 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 31 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 31 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 31 |
The line archive, 48 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 43 games. The close misses the final by 10.46, the open by 10.60, our raw ratings number by 10.93, Pinnacle's close by 10.45. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.00, Polymarket 9.54, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.13.
The head start. 106 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 25, average 0.43 points; the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped 4, went quiet 53.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 106 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 106 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 53. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Navy at Air Force | Over | 48.8 | 47.1 | -1.7 | same side |
| Ohio State at Iowa | Iowa +14.4 | 14.4 | 13.5 | +0.9 | no call |
| Ohio at Kent State | Ohio -3.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | +1.0 | no call |
| Old Dominion at Georgia State | Georgia State +2.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | +1.6 | no call |
| Purdue at Illinois | Illinois Fighting -9.5 | -9.5 | -10 | +0.5 | same side |
| San José State at Hawai'i | Under | 57.5 | 51.8 | +5.7 | no call |
| UCF at Houston | UCF +10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 | same side |
| UL Monroe at South Alabama | Over | 54.5 | 55.9 | +1.4 | no call |
| Washington at USC | Over | 53.5 | 56.4 | +2.9 | no call |
| West Virginia at Iowa State | Iowa State +2 | 2 | -2.7 | +4.7 | same side |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay +3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | no call |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Under | 43.5 | 42.5 | +1.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 120 | 13.4 | 34-46 (42%) | 22-25 (47%) |
| Massey | 123 | 12.6 | 27-34 (44%) | 8-20 (29%) |
| The blend | 125 | 12.8 | 26-36 (42%) | 10-19 (34%) |
NFL, 38 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 34 | 11.0 | 9-12 (43%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| FPI | 32 | 10.5 | 9-2 (82%) | 6-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 34 | 10.1 | 8-4 (67%) | 3-1 (75%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 72 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.
What's changed since Mon 28 Sep, 10:33pm
- MovedEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen line moved 0.5 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles, now -6.0.
- OffTexas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs dropped off. It was San Diego State Aztecs +4.5.
- OffDenver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers dropped off. It was San Francisco 49ers -2.5.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.0Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinalstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 170 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 144 | 10.12 |
| The market | 278 | 10.61 |
| SP+ | 169 | 10.66 |
| FPI | 202 | 10.68 |
| nfelo | 48 | 10.86 |
| Sagarin | 268 | 11.89 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 124-126 | 50% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 3-8 | 27% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 5-6 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 856020 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.15 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 367 | 1.44 |
| Kalshi | 178 | 1.44 |
| FanDuel | 396 | 1.43 |
| BetOnline.ag | 357 | 1.31 |
| BetRivers | 388 | 1.31 |
| LowVig.ag | 349 | 1.30 |
| MyBookie.ag | 287 | 1.22 |
| ReBet | 173 | 1.21 |
| Bally Bet | 180 | 1.18 |
| betPARX | 180 | 1.17 |
| BetMGM | 354 | 1.12 |
| BetUS | 289 | 1.10 |
| Caesars | 307 | 1.08 |
| TOM | 305 | 1.07 |
| Bovada | 349 | 1.05 |
| Fanatics | 321 | 1.04 |
| theScore Bet | 177 | 0.99 |
| Pinnacle | 351 | 0.98 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 179 | 0.91 |
| Courtside | 132 | 0.89 |
| BetAnything | 158 | 0.79 |
| Fliff | 128 | 0.74 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 46 | 0.60 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 46 | 0.55 |
| Polymarket | 35 | 0.54 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 2 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated yesterday
- Sagarin updated 2 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 7 days ago
- nfelo updated today