Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Falcons at SteelersFalcons +6-110 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%NFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.Jets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Buck's Take
Nothing makes the Cut Saturday, but 2 come damn near. Close enough to smell it.
Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
Falcons at Steelers, Falcons +6. Every system has Steelers by 4.5; the market has Steelers by 6. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Packers at Vikings Under 46 the strongest at 2.9% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Arkansas at Utah, Over 55.5, down 1 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Don't tell anyone I said so.
Buck
Today
10 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, Arkansas at UtahArkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at UtahCFB 9:15pmOver 55.5should be 57.5 · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 12, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 13.5 to Utah by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -107 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12 -111 | 55.5 -109 | -494 | +385 |
All 13 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -107 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +340 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| BetMGM | -12 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -475 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -107 | 55.5 -110 | -470 | +364 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | -590 | +400 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -470 | +370 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -510 | +370 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -112 | -500 | +375 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -500 | +385 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12 -111 | 55.5 -109 | -494 | +385 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -368 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -335 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -309 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -136 |
| Market (11 books) | -12.0 | -450 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 62.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +12.0 | -113 | -104 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +340 | +356 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at ClemsonCFB 7:30pmNo betmarket says Clemson by 19, our data says Clemson by 18Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 19.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
All 12 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
| BetRivers | -20 -109 | 55 -109 | -1430 | +750 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -19.5 -115 | 54.5 -105 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -19.5 -112 | 53.5 -117 | -1450 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -1350 | +800 |
| Fanatics | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -1400 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 54 -108 | -1300 | +795 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -19.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $25 available; Under 54.5, only $109 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -430 |
| FPI | -16.5 | -652 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -2367 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (10 books) | -19.0 | -838 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +19.0 | -110 | +109 | -4.5% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +800 | +764 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-12 06:03; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.
The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at AuburnCFB 7:40pmUnder 56should be 52.6 · getting 3.4 pts · was 56.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 32.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 32.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3.6 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -33 -101 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -32.5 -108 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| BetUS | -32 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -33 -105 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -32.5 -108 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | — | +3000 |
| Fanatics | -32.5 -107 | 56.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -31.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -32.5 -104 | 56 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -33.5 -118 | 57.5 -111 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33 -101 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 79°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.0 | -1859 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -609 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (10 books) | -32.5 | -2647 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +32.5 | -112 | -106 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +2668 | +3122 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -105 | -142 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -32.5 here against -32.8 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.6 consensus.
The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEPCFB 8:00pmNo betmarket says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 22Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTEP by 25.5 to UTEP by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -114 | 53 -114 | — | +1267 |
All 12 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| BetMGM | -27 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -3000 | +1750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -113 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -27 -105 | 53.5 -105 | — | +1200 |
| Caesars | -27 -112 | 53.5 -106 | — | +1400 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +1700 |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -25.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27 -115 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -26.5 -114 | 53 -114 | — | +1267 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 89°F.
The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -480 |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales | |
| Market (10 books) | -27.0 | -1424 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +27.0 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +1548 | +1324 | priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air ForceCFB 9:00pmNo betmarket says North Dakota State by 1, our data says North Dakota State by 1Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 1, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -113 | 47.5 -111 | +105 | -118 |
All 13 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | +1 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -108 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +102 | -127 |
| BetUS | +1 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Bovada | +2 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +103 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | -102 | -118 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -106 | 47.5 -108 | -102 | -118 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +100 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -113 | 47.5 -111 | +105 | -118 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.0 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has North Dakota State -1.0 while Pinnacle is at North Dakota State by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -0.5 | -108 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +150 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +130 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -121 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons +1.0 | -110 | +106 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -102 | +111 | -3.0% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +1.0 here against +2.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno StateCFB 9:30pmOver 44.5should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -17 -114 | 44.5 -107 | -985 | +669 |
All 13 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| BetRivers | -18 -109 | 44.5 -108 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1000 | +625 |
| Caesars | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -1200 | +675 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -900 | +600 |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -17.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | -1000 | +640 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -106 | 44.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -1205 | +700 |
| Pinnacle | -17 -114 | 44.5 -107 | -985 | +669 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F.
Across the books: opened -18.0, now -17.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -457 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -451 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -416 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -139 |
| Market (12 books) | -17.5 | -704 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +17.5 | -110 | +102 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +700 | +626 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-10 14:33.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at NevadaCFB 9:30pmNo betmarket says Montana State by 4.5, our data says Montana State by 5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Montana State by 3.5 to Montana State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Montana State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | +166 | -204 |
All 12 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Montana State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -115 | 51.5 -108 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5 -110 | 51 -109 | +170 | -215 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -112 | 51.5 -111 | +163 | -205 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +170 | -205 |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 52 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 51.5 -112 | +158 | -192 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +160 | -208 |
| Pinnacle | +5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | +166 | -204 |
Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Montana State).
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Montana State | |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +233 |
| Massey | rates Montana State and Nevada on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | +4.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Montana State Bobcats -4.5 | -115 | -102 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Montana State Bobcats ML | -190 | -180 | -1.3% |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Montana State Bobcats since 09-11 20:09; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.8 consensus.
Only 1 model could price the sides.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USCCFB 10:00pmOver 59should be 59.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 60Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -31 +101 | 59 -104 | — | — |
All 14 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -31.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -31.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | +1787 |
| BetRivers | -31 -117 | 59 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -31 -105 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31 +100 | 58.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| Caesars | -30.5 -113 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -112 | 58.5 -115 | — | +1800 |
| Fanatics | -31 -110 | 58.5 -115 | — | +2500 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | — | +3000 |
| LowVig.ag | -31.5 -101 | 59.5 -103 | — | +1787 |
| MyBookie.ag | -31 -110 | 59 -110 | — | +1559 |
| Pinnacle | -31 +101 | 59 -104 | — | — |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.5 | -2334 |
| FPI | -26.5 | -2649 |
| Sagarin | -29.5 | -4325 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -149 |
| Market (12 books) | -31.5 | -2049 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.5 | -115 | +133 | -10.5% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | +1800 | +4608 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -31.5 here against -31.0 consensus.
The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'iCFB 11:00pmNo betmarket says Hawai'i by 7, our data says Hawai'i by 7Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 7, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +102 | 50 -107 | -316 | +263 |
All 13 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -115 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -115 | 49.5 -114 | -295 | +220 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50.5 -109 | -310 | +245 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 -114 | -285 | +230 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -115 | 50 -114 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -310 | +240 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +102 | 50 -107 | -316 | +263 |
Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -302 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -245 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -237 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.0 | -110 | +108 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -310 | -217 | -7.2% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José StateCFB 8:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Cal Poly ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -117 | 58 -120 | -1678 | +802 |
All 12 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Cal Poly ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -21.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -2000 | +1100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -21.5 -113 | 58 -114 | — | +1400 |
| Bovada | -21.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | -1800 | +850 |
| Caesars | -21.5 -107 | 58.5 -113 | -1700 | +850 |
| DraftKings | -21.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -2100 | +1100 |
| Fanatics | -21.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -21.5 -114 | 58.5 -105 | -2800 | +1160 |
| LowVig.ag | -21.5 -105 | 59 -105 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -21.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -21 -117 | 58 -120 | -1678 | +802 |
Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward San José State). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Cal Poly | |
| Massey | rates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -21.5 | -946 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-08 18:47; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Tomorrow
13 games2 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at SteelersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmFalcons +6should be Falcons +5.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +3Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Falcons +6.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Falcons is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 -111 | 41 -108 | -290 | +243 |
All 14 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -112 51¢ | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetMGM | -6 -110 | 41 -108 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -6 -113 | 41 -109 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -105 | 41 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Caesars | -6 -108 | 40.5 -120 | -280 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 40.5 -118 | -265 | +215 |
| Fanatics | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -118 | 40.5 -118 | -290 | +235 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 -109 | 41 -107 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 41 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -6 -111 | 41 -108 | -290 | +243 |
Marked: best for Falcons, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 2.9 away from Falcons, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -184 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (12 books) | -6.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | +220 | +197 | +2.4% |
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons +6.0 | -110 | -117 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 41.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at TitansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
All 14 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -116 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| BetUS | PK -120 | 38.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -1 -110 | 39 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -109 | 38.5 -112 | -120 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 38.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| Fanatics | -1 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -118 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -112 | 38.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -1 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -112 | -101 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -146 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (12 books) | PK | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans PK | -116 | -112 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | -120 | -112 | -1.8% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -125 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at VikingsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmUnder 46should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -115 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
All 14 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -125 | 46 -115 | -132 | +112 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -131 55¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -125 | 46 -115 | -132 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -113 | 46 -112 | -127 | +105 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 46 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 46 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -113 | 46.5 -107 | -129 | +109 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -105 | 46.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -126 | +108 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -121 | 46 -113 | -132 | +112 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -127 | +104 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -120 | 46 -110 | -127 | +113 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +106 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (12 books) | -1.0 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +112 | +109 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +1.0 | +105 | +103 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -105 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.
Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at PanthersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 47should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -161 60¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -102 | 47 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +149 | -170 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 47 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 47 -113 | +142 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3 -105 | 47.5 -102 | +150 | -178 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -105 | 47 -107 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 47 -110 | +141 | -174 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -106 | 47.5 +100 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +125 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +127 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +129 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -123 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +140 | +140 | +0.0% |
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.0 | -105 | -105 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.
Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at TexansNFL tomorrow 12:00pmOver 44.5should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 45 +100 | +106 | -119 |
All 14 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -116 52¢ |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -113 | 44.5 -112 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -109 | +103 | -121 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 44.5 -110 | -102 | -118 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -104 | -112 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 44.5 -107 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -101 | -121 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 45 +100 | +106 | -119 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.0 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +1.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Texans +1.0 | +100 | +101 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Houston Texans ML | +105 | +107 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at LionsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 50should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
All 14 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -310 | +235 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +109 46¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | -322 75¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 50 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -108 | 50 -110 | -310 | +252 |
| BetRivers | -7 -110 | 49.5 -113 | -345 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -310 | +255 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| Caesars | -7 -106 | 49.5 -117 | -320 | +250 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 49.5 -112 | -340 | +270 |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 49.5 -115 | -335 | +270 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -103 | 50 -107 | -310 | +252 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -104 | 49.5 -116 | -321 | +266 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -251 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -260 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -7.0 | -297 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -7.0 | -107 | +115 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -310 | -243 | -4.8% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at ChargersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmUnder 47should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 ptsA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -101 | 47 -115 | -479 | +375 |
All 13 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 47.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -115 | -515 | +393 |
| BetRivers | -9 -112 | 47 -113 | -480 | +350 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -515 | +400 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +360 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -105 | 47.5 -104 | -490 | +380 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +100 | 47 -113 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -505 | +356 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -101 | 47 -115 | -479 | +375 |
Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -396 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -307 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -366 |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -618 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -131 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -9.5 | -105 | +109 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | -515 | -331 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 19:31.
TOM: moneyline -493 here against -396 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at ColtsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
All 14 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -131 55¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 +100 | 47.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -105 | +145 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -114 | 48 -108 | +143 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 +100 | 48 -110 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3 +100 | 48 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -102 | 47.5 -117 | +147 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +145 | -175 |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -114 | +148 | -176 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +100 | 48 -102 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -119 | 47.5 -117 | +151 | -172 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +156 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +128 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +124 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +148 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -124 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +3.0 | -105 | -105 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +135 | +140 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.3 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +156 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at BengalsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 50 -110 | -200 | +174 |
All 14 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +177 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 50.5 -109 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +175 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -111 | 50.5 -109 | -205 | +171 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | -205 | +170 |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -205 | +170 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 50.5 -112 | -210 | +176 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -102 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -210 | +168 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 50 -110 | -200 | +174 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 85°F.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -171 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -158 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -167 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -3.5 | -115 | +111 | -6.1% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -205 | -155 | -6.4% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -115 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at JaguarsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmNo betmarket says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -101 | 40.5 +100 | -405 | +326 |
All 14 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -103 49¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -404 79¢ | +351 21¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -450 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -104 | 40 -112 | -400 | +316 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 40.5 -106 | -420 | +320 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -105 | 40 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -420 | +315 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -104 | 39.5 -127 | -420 | +320 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -455 | +350 |
| Fanatics | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 40.5 -102 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 +101 | 40 -109 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -9 -110 | 40 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -101 | 40.5 +100 | -405 | +326 |
Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +9.5, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -311 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -288 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -334 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +9.5 | -116 | -113 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +310 | +320 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -112 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at RaidersNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
All 14 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 40.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -113 | 40.5 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 40.5 -107 | -159 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 40 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 40.5 -106 | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -112 | 39.5 -118 | -164 | +138 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 40.5 -107 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 40 -110 | -171 | +139 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 40.5 -103 | -164 | +144 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -179 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -202 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -125 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.5 | 41.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders -3.0 | -113 | -101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | -165 | -148 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 40.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at EaglesNFL tomorrow 3:25pmNo betmarket says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 44.5 -101 | -241 | +206 |
All 14 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +197 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -229 68¢ | +198 32¢ |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -115 | 44 -110 | -247 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -106 | -250 | +205 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 44 -113 | -245 | +200 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -110 | 44 -107 | -247 | +205 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -250 | +198 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -104 | 44.5 -101 | -241 | +206 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -5.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Eagles).
Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles) and 7 more.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -207 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -218 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -135 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -236 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -5.0 | -115 | +107 | -5.2% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -247 | -189 | -5.8% |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Philadelphia Eagles since 09-06 17:09.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at GiantsNFL tomorrow 7:20pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -136 56¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -116 | +146 | -166 |
All 14 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -136 56¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +140 40¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -113 | 48 -108 | +139 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -118 | 48 -108 | +132 | -157 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3 -111 | 48 -110 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | +136 | -162 |
| Fanatics | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -112 | 48.5 -105 | +134 | -158 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 48 -105 | +139 | -159 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -120 | 48 -110 | +135 | -167 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +116 | 47.5 -116 | +146 | -166 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys -3.5, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +122 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +131 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | +3.0 | +140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.0 | -113 | -107 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +134 | +137 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -108 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 14
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at ChiefsDenver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at ChiefsNFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pmUnder 43.5should be 42.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +104 | -138 | +122 |
All 14 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 43.5 -108 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -142 | +120 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -134 | +114 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 43.5 -113 | -140 | +120 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -143 | +117 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 44 +104 | -138 | +122 |
Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos) and 7 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -150 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -147 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -141 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 38.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -135 | -137 | +0.4% |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -2.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Thu Sep 17
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at BillsNFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pmNo betmarket says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -3.5 | — | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 51.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 51.5 -115 | -170 | +144 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -196 | +164 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -116 | 51.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -172 | +134 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -3.5, only $1 available; Over 51.5, only $483 available; Under 51.5, only $476 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -141 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -152 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -164 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (9 books) | -3.0 | -156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -3.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -172 | -146 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Fri Sep 18
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake ForestCFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pmNo betmarket says Miami by 23, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1429 93¢ |
All 3 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -1429 93¢ |
| DraftKings | +22.5 -112 | 54.5 -108 | +1000 | -1800 |
| MyBookie.ag | +23.5 -110 | — | +800 | -1887 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +19.5, now +23.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons +21.5, only $37 available; Miami Hurricanes -21.5, only $39 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $81 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Miami and Wake Forest's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Wake Forest's last game | |
| Market (2 books) | +23.0 | +940 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 2.0.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sat Sep 19
3 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun DevilsKansas at Arizona StateCFB Sat 19 Sep, 11:00amNo betmarket says Arizona State by 5.5, our data says the sameWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Kansas and Arizona State's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Arizona State's last game | |
| Market (2 books) | -5.5 | -189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at IndianaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pmUnder 59.5should be 58.5 · getting 1 ptWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen Western Kentucky and Indiana's last game | |
| Market (1 books) | -44.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia MountaineersVirginia at West VirginiaCFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 53.5should be 52.2 · getting 1.3 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: West Virginia Mountaineers ML, only $0 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen Virginia and West Virginia's last game | |
| Massey | hasn't seen West Virginia's last game | |
| Market (1 books) | +8.5 | +275 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Sun Sep 20
12 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at FalconsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
All 7 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -116 52¢ | -107 50¢ |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -124 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -1.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | -108 | -108 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -122 | -104 |
Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -1.5 | -120 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -120 |
| Sagarin | -2.0 | -128 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -129 |
| Market (6 books) | -1.5 | -108 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Atlanta Falcons -1.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Atlanta Falcons ML | -122 | -121 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at RavensNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 46.5should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Saints ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -404 79¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -7.5 -109 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -355 | +280 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -104 | 46.5 -118 | -460 | +360 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +290 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.5 | -323 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -278 |
| Sagarin | -9.5 | -319 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (8 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 | -110 | +114 | -5.7% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -400 | -270 | -7.0% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at BearsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 45.5should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 45.5 -112 | -165 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -104 | 45.5 -114 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -154 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +110 | 45.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -168 | +131 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -155 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -154 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -127 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -165 | -144 | -3.2% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at TexansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -136 56¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 46 -113 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -3 +105 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -114 | 45.5 -113 | -139 | +119 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -136 | +116 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +108 | 45.5 -102 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -146 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals ML, only $272 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -138 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -126 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -133 |
| Market (8 books) | -2.5 | -128 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals +2.5 | -110 | +111 | -5.0% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | +116 | +138 | -4.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at BuccaneersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -322 75¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -118 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -322 75¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -118 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 40.5 -124 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 40.5 -105 | -330 | +265 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 40.5 -113 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -319 | +236 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $172 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.0 | -265 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -251 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -131 |
| Market (8 books) | -6.5 | -256 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5 | -110 | +109 | -4.6% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | -300 | -228 | -5.5% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at JetsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmNo betmarket says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -112 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -118 | +200 | -245 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +198 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +206 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +239 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -120 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +212 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -5.5 | -110 | +107 | -4.2% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | -245 | -197 | -4.6% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at PatriotsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmUnder 43.5should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -182 63¢ | — |
All 6 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -182 63¢ | — |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -112 | -210 | +170 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -200 | +160 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -205 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -214 | +164 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $321 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -161 |
| Sagarin | hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game | |
| Massey | -1.5 | -131 |
| Market (5 books) | -4.5 | -179 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 39.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +4.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +167 | +166 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at TitansNFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pmTitans to winour data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than notWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -263 71¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 42.5 -107 | +198 | -240 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +210 | -255 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +189 | -250 |
Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $368 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Eli Stowers (TE, Eagles), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.0 | +186 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +162 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +188 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -119 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +211 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +5.5 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +198 | +191 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at BroncosNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmNo betmarket says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 44.5 -106 | -154 | +131 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -156 | +132 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -159 | +124 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $362 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -142 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -132 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -144 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (8 books) | -3.0 | -138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +130 | +142 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at ChargersNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pmUnder 42.5should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -231 |
| FPI | -9.5 | -336 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -379 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -134 |
| Market (8 books) | -9.5 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Las Vegas Raiders ML | +330 | +313 | priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Washington Commanders at Dallas CowboysCommanders at CowboysNFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:25pmNo betmarket says Cowboys by 4.5, our data says Cowboys by 4.5WaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -239 69¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
All 9 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Commanders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -239 69¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 51.5 -109 | -220 | +175 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -198 | +164 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | -230 | +190 |
| LowVig.ag | -4.5 +100 | 51 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -222 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $378 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -175 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -194 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -128 |
| Market (8 books) | -4.5 | -188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -4.5 | -110 | +110 | -4.7% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -222 | -175 | -5.3% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL Sun 20 Sep, 7:20pmUnder 47.5should be 46.7 · getting 0.6 ptsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 8 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -276 72¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -109 | -278 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -6.5 -109 | 47.5 -106 | -290 | +230 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -107 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts ML, only $57 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Jeff Caldwell (WR, Chiefs), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.5 | -198 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -185 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -220 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -130 |
| Market (7 books) | -6.5 | -240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +6.5 | -110 | -119 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +225 | +210 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks1-0100%+0.91 units1 game
Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +0.91 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty0-0—nothing graded yet0 games
No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.
A Little Nasty3-633%-3.27 units9 games
Sep 8 to 14
3-6 · -3.27 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick | 1-0 | 100.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 3-6 | 33.3% | -3.3 u | small sample |
| Not Nasty | 38 games | — | — | no call to grade |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 9 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 17 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 41 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 7:19pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 3.5Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deaconstoward Miami Hurricaneswith the public
- → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| FPI | 30 | 9.87 |
| SP+ | 30 | 11.00 |
| The market | 53 | 11.85 |
| Sagarin | 49 | 14.16 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 25-26 | 49% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 353044 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.21 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 40 | 2.95 |
| LowVig.ag | 113 | 1.43 |
| BetOnline.ag | 117 | 1.41 |
| Caesars | 124 | 1.23 |
| DraftKings | 144 | 1.21 |
| Bovada | 108 | 1.19 |
| Fanatics | 142 | 1.16 |
| TOM | 105 | 1.14 |
| BetMGM | 107 | 1.14 |
| BetRivers | 152 | 1.12 |
| FanDuel | 165 | 1.09 |
| Pinnacle | 107 | 1.06 |
| BetUS | 82 | 0.96 |
| MyBookie.ag | 91 | 0.92 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 4 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated today
- SP+ updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 2 days ago