Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Buck's Take
Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 52 (Navy at UAB) at 9.2% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Boise State at Western Michigan, Western Michigan +8.5, 2 points our way since the open.
If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Navy at UAB, Over 52. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.
Buck
Nasty Picks
Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.
Nasty Dogs
No dog worth the price this week.
Damn Near Nasty
Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.
A Little Nasty
No sneakies today. The market has this slate.
Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 27 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +9, Charlotte +14, UConn +5. Open
Sniff of Nasty
College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.
7.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Texas A&M): TOM +9 at -110 (7.8%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (7.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (7.5%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (7.0%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +9.5 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than +9 (the games that land on 9); 51¢ costs under 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.5.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings +14 at -110 (5.9%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (5.2%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -105 (4.8%) · Fanatics +14 at -115 (4.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (3.7%).5.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UConn): TOM +5 at -112 (5.7%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (4.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (3.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -108 (3.1%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (3.0%).5.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (5.7%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (5.3%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (4.1%) · DraftKings or TOM +7.5 at -110 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.4.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Clemson): BetMGM +1 at -108 (4.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (4.2%) · Fanatics +1 at -115 (3.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (2.9%) · Caesars or TOM PK at -110 (2.8%).Points or price: +1.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1 (the games that land on 1); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.4.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +4 at -110 (3.5%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).4.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Cincinnati): Fanatics +7 at -110 (4.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (4.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.3%) · Caesars +6.5 at -102 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Nevada): BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (4.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +4.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 56¢ (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +5.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +4.5 (the games that land on 5); 56¢ costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.19 more, weaker reads
3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (3.8%) · Fanatics or TOM +12.5 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Oklahoma): TOM +14 at -103 (3.5%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +14 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.1%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -103. The price wins.3.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Akron): Fanatics +14 at -105 (3.3%) · Caesars +14 at -108 (2.6%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (2.2%) · DraftKings or TOM +14 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.4%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); -118 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · TOM +14 at -115 (1.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars +13.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +14 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +13.5 (the games that land on 14); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.2.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Washington State): DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (2.8%) · Fanatics +13 at -110 (2.2%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.2%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (9.2%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (6.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (6.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (5.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -108 (4.6%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -110 (5.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.4%) · Caesars 50.5 at -104 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (0.5%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or TOM 60.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 60 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -105 (3.2%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): TOM 46 at -115 (3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (1.0%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Over): TOM 56 at -110 (3.7%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 52¢ (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.2%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.1%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 55.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 56 (the games that land on 56); 52¢ costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.3.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Missouri): TOM +5.5 at -105 (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +6.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +5.5 (the games that land on 6); 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.3.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Ole Miss): TOM +3 at +102 (3.4%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.9%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.2%).3.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +9 at -110 (3.1%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.1.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (-0.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (-0.6%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 54.5 at -105 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.7%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-0.2%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (2.1%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 45 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).0.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.2%) · TOM +2 at -110 (0.8%) · BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +1.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 53 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.0%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-0.9%).A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Fanatics 58.5 at -105 (4.7%) · Caesars 58.5 at -106 (4.5%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.4%) · TOM or Kalshi 57.5 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Moved closer since the 1:56pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:56pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- Virginia Tech at Boston College Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Boston College +15.0: 0.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -14.0 to +14.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Tulsa at Arkansas Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Tulsa +8.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -7.0 to +7.5; the price from -112 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Texas at Tennessee Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Texas -3.0: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -5.0 to -4.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Colorado at Baylor Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Colorado +10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -8.5 to +9.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - New Mexico at New Mexico State Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at New Mexico State +14.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +13.5 to +14.0; the price from +100 to -110. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Oklahoma State at West Virginia Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Sniff of Nasty now
A Little Nasty at West Virginia -1.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.5 to -1.5; the price from -103 to -110. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - South Carolina at Alabama Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at South Carolina +13.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +12.0 to +12.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word. - Oregon at USC Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at USC +3.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.5 to +3.0; the price from -101 to -108. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
And 3 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at ChiefsNFL 7:20pmChiefs -5.5should be Chiefs -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chiefs's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -285 | +225 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 +104 | 46 -105 | -273 | +237 |
All 25 books
| Chiefs spread | Total (over) | Chiefs ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -285 | +225 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -112 51¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetAnything | -6 -105 | 46 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| BetMGM | — | 46 -108 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6 -105 | 46 -110 | -285 | +234 |
| betPARX | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetRivers | -6 -114 | 46 -112 | -315 | +240 |
| BetUS | -6 -105 | 46 -110 | -285 | +238 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 46 +105 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -6 -107 | 45.5 -118 | -275 | +225 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -563 | -258 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -6 -108 | 46.5 -102 | -265 | +215 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 72¢ -284 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6 -105 | 46 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -102 | 45.5 -115 | -290 | +235 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -325 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -6 +100 | 46 -107 | -285 | +234 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -6 +104 | 46 -105 | -273 | +237 |
| Polymarket | -4.5 -113 | 45.5 | -257 | +245 |
| ReBet | -6 -110 | 46 -110 | -275 | +228 |
Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Chiefs, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.5 | -243 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -275 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -260 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -216 |
| Market (21 books) | -5.5 | -273 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 45.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -5.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -265 | -224 | -3.5% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-17 13:25; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.
Tomorrow
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at RamsNFL tomorrow 7:15pmRams -6.5should be Rams -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
All 25 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 47.5 | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -7 -102 | 47.5 -108 | -300 | +250 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 -110 | -315 | +256 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 48 -113 | -335 | +260 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -305 | +253 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -5460 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 47.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -115 | -355 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -114 | 47.5 -107 | -315 | +256 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -319 | +246 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +100 | 48.5 +106 | -310 | +266 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -117 | 47.5 | -285 | +270 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -310 | +255 |
Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $8 available; Over 47.5, only $366 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -278 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -181 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -282 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -250 |
| Market (21 books) | -6.5 | -301 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -6.5 | -117 | +105 | -5.1% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -285 | -240 | -3.5% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Thu Sep 24
1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Coastal Carolina, Liberty at Coastal CarolinaLiberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal CarolinaCFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pmCoastal Carolina +2Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Coastal Carolina PK · getting 2 pts at TOM · was -1.5Sniff of Nasty · Coastal CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Coastal Carolina. Market says Liberty by 2, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Coastal Carolina's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | -126 54¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 52.5 -112 51¢ | — | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 53.5 -108 | -125 | +102 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -108 | 52.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -103 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -121 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | -122 | +100 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 52.5 -103 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 52 -115 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 +101 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -0.5 -109 | 52.5 -114 | -111 | -119 |
Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Coastal Carolina +2.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $85 available; Under 52.5, only $50 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +0.6 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -128 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -145 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.0 | +103 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 55.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +108 | +102 | +1.4% |
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Liberty Flames since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +0.6 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.
Fri Sep 25
4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at CaliforniaClemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at CaliforniaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pmClemson +1should be Clemson -2 · getting 3 pts at BetMGM · was -1.5Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | — | — | -112 51¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Clemson ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 | — | — | -112 51¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +100 | -121 |
| BetMGM | -1 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -112 | -105 |
| BetOnline.ag | PK -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +1.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | +100 | -121 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +100 | -122 |
| Caesars | PK -110 | 50 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -103 | 50.5 -108 | -108 | -108 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 50.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in | 51¢ -113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1 -105 | 50 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -114 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | — | 49.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | PK -106 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -0.5 -114 | 49.5 -114 | -114 | -116 |
Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson +1.0 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now PK. The market has moved 1.5 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears -1.5, only $144 available; Over 50.5, only $12 available; Under 50.5, only $61 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +173 |
| Sagarin | PK | +102 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +181 |
| Market (13 books) | PK | +102 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +1.0 | -108 | -130 | +4.7% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | -105 | -123 | +4.0% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward California Golden Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at TempleCFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pmOver 48.5Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 51.6 · getting 3.1 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Temple too: market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2, but at -105 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | — | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | — | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +130 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 50.5 -113 | +128 | -157 |
| BetRivers | +3 -110 | 50.5 -114 | +128 | -159 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 50.5 -104 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 50.5 -106 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 49.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +132 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 50.5 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 50.5 -111 | +126 | -168 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $10 available; Under 52.5, only $243 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -105 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +179 |
| Market (13 books) | +3.0 | +145 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls +3.0 | -105 | -114 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | +130 | +123 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.4 consensus.
Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UABCFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pmOver 52Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 56.1 · getting 4.1 pts · was 54.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 8, the Nasty Number says Navy by 9. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 10.5 to Navy by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -118 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -115 | 53 -115 | — | — |
All 15 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -118 | 52 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | +335 | -455 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -115 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -110 | 52.5 -109 | +335 | -455 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | +335 | -455 |
| Caesars | +10 -108 | 53.5 -108 | +340 | -440 |
| Courtside | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10 -112 | 53.5 -112 | +320 | -410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | +320 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -111 | 53 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 53.5 -111 | +290 | -429 |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward UAB).
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers ML, only $468 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +10.2 consensus.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UAB's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +159 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +244 |
| Market (12 books) | +8.0 | +386 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 60.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen -8.0 | -102 | +110 | -3.0% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | -355 | -255 | -6.2% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -105 | -153 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +10.2 consensus; total 52.0 here against 53.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at IndianaCFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pmNorthwestern +22.5should be Northwestern +21 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 22.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Indiana spread | Total (over) | Indiana ML | Northwestern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1684 94¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -23.5 -108 | 48 -107 | — | +1400 |
| BetRivers | -23.5 -109 | 48 -108 | — | +1400 |
| Caesars | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -107 | — | — |
| Courtside | -22.5 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -21.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 94¢ -2401 all-in | 7¢ +1011 all-in |
| Fanatics | -23.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -111 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -23.5 -119 | 47.5 -119 | -3030 | +870 |
Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Northwestern).
TOM: spread -22.5 here against -23.0 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game | |
| FPI | -17.5 | -668 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -762 |
| Massey | rates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -22.5 | -2686 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 45.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats +23.5 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | +1364 | +1004 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -22.5 here against -23.0 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Sat Sep 26
53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmTexas A&M +9should be Texas A&M +6.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 6.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -340 76¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -335 | +255 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 53.5 -108 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -395 | +310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | 76¢ -355 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 53.5 -106 | -315 | +250 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -360 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -325 | +240 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -101 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 53.5 -111 | -350 | +244 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +9.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -9.5, only $47 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -157 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -176 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +109 |
| Market (14 books) | -9.0 | -313 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +9.0 | -110 | -151 | +7.8% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +310 | +197 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.1 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCharlotte +14should be Charlotte +11.5 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +13.5Sniff of Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 12, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Charlotte is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +426 18¢ | -564 84¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | +426 18¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | +450 | -670 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -115 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 52.5 -110 | +450 | -670 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 | +440 | -670 |
| Caesars | +14 -113 | 51.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 51.5 -116 | +439 | -553 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +425 | -575 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 50.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14 -115 | 52 -105 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +450 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -111 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | 51.5 -119 | +410 | -699 |
Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +12.0 here against +14.1 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +210 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +217 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +260 |
| Market (13 books) | +12.0 | +560 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +14.0 | -110 | -140 | +5.9% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +450 | +328 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -157 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Louisiana Ragin Cajuns since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +12.0 here against +14.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.8 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUConn +5should be UConn +2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -108 | 50.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5 -108 | 50.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -175 62¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 49 -110 | -175 | +143 |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 49 -110 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 49 -112 | -177 | +143 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 51 -110 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 61¢ -170 all-in | 50.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -105 | 49.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -176 | +146 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -101 | 50.5 -103 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -114 | 49.5 -109 | -197 | +146 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -3.5, only $14 available; UConn Huskies +3.5, only $2 available; Over 50.5, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -138 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -104 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +5.0 | -112 | -141 | +5.7% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +152 | +131 | +3.6% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +7Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 53.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 53.5 -108 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +105 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 53.5 -113 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +7 -114 | 53.5 -114 | +210 | -265 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -102 | 52.5 -117 | +200 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | +194 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 53.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 53 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +210 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +109 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 53.5 -111 | +208 | -290 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game | |
| FPI | +3.0 | +137 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +108 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +157 |
| Market (13 books) | +6.5 | +234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 57.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -110 | -132 | +4.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +210 | +183 | +3.1% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmWestern Michigan +8.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Western Michigan +7.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +7Sniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetMGM | +8 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -113 | 47.5 -112 | +240 | -315 |
| Caesars | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +246 | -290 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +240 | -298 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 47.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +265 | -330 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -106 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -116 | 47.5 -119 | +250 | -360 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +8.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 47.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +183 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +128 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +264 |
| Market (12 books) | +7.5 | +286 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +8.5 | -110 | -138 | +5.7% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +265 | +211 | +4.8% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.
TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; total 48.5 here against 47.7 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmNevada +4.5should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelSniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -136 56¢ | 48.5 -136 56¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -112 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 49 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -136 56¢ | 48.5 -136 56¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | 49.5 -105 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -112 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +167 | -200 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 49.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +162 | -196 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -108 | 49 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 48.5 -119 | +166 | -228 |
Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nevada's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -114 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (10 books) | +4.5 | +189 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +170 | +140 | +4.6% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +4.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.5% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | +101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSACFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado State +12.5should be Colorado State +11 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was +13Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colorado State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | Colorado State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -455 | +340 |
| BetMGM | -12 -108 | 57.5 -115 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 56.5 -109 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -113 | 56.5 -110 | -480 | +335 |
| Caesars | — | 59 -110 | -560 | +400 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -111 | 57.5 -111 | -549 | +350 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Colorado State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -197 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -322 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -306 |
| Market (13 books) | -12.5 | -462 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 56.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +12.5 | -110 | -127 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +425 | +312 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.5 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +12Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -117 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -660 86¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -117 | 43.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | — | -660 86¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -113 | -590 | +410 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -108 | 44.5 -113 | -590 | +410 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -109 | 44.5 -114 | -590 | +410 |
| Caesars | -14 -109 | 44.5 -108 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 45.5 +100 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 45.5 -102 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 43.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 44 -115 | -650 | +475 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -690 | +465 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 44 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 45.5 -109 | -699 | +410 |
Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs -16.5, only $0 available; Oklahoma Sooners +16.5, only $39 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.8 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -252 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -248 |
| Market (14 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +14.0 | -103 | -119 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +470 | +385 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -122 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.5 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBall State +4.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsSniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetMGM | -4 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 50.5 -113 | -175 | +138 |
| Caesars | — | 51.5 -106 | -179 | +150 |
| Courtside | -4.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -176 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 50.5 -120 | -200 | +165 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -106 | 51.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -4.5 -109 | 51.5 -105 | -208 | +153 |
Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -173 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (13 books) | -3.5 | -166 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ball State Cardinals +4.5 | -110 | -132 | +4.6% |
| Moneyline | Ball State Cardinals ML | +150 | +134 | +2.7% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 49.0 here against 51.1 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmOle Miss +3should be Ole Miss +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +1.5Sniff of Nasty · Ole MissBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Ole Miss. Market says Florida by 3, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 61.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -122 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | — | -143 57¢ | +109 46¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -122 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | — | -143 57¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 59 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 59.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 59.5 -115 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -135 | +110 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 59.5 -111 | -141 | +107 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +3.0 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Ole Miss, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $10 available; Under 61.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 59.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -109 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -150 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +156 |
| Market (12 books) | -3.0 | -125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +3.0 | +102 | -112 | +3.4% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +114 | +125 | -2.2% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -110 | -142 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus; total 61.5 here against 59.3 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at AkronCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmAkron +14should be Akron +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | -609 85¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | UNLV ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -116 52¢ | — | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -109 | 50.5 -109 | +460 | -715 |
| Caesars | +14 -108 | 49.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 49.5 -103 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -118 | 49.5 -110 | +500 | -720 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -119 | 49.5 -114 | +430 | -752 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +14.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +276 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +123 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +406 |
| Market (12 books) | +14.0 | +612 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Akron Zips +14.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +481 | +381 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.8.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUnder 48.5should be 47.4 · getting 1.3 pts · was 49.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Washington State too: market says Arizona by 13, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11.5, but at -110 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.5 | +303 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +200 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +172 |
| Market (12 books) | +13.0 | +496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 44.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +13.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +400 | +339 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.8.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsSniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.5 | -195 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -348 |
| Massey | -8.0 | -225 |
| Market (13 books) | -9.0 | -313 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 55.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0 | -110 | -125 | +3.1% |
| Moneyline | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML | +266 | +239 | +2.2% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUL Monroe +14should be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +13Sniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 14, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UL Monroe's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -121 53¢ | +398 19¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -121 53¢ | +398 19¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -110 | 59.5 -102 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -117 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -112 | 58.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -113 | 58.5 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -112 | 59 -110 | +425 | -590 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 59 -110 | +425 | -575 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +440 | -610 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 +100 | 58.5 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -113 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | 58.5 -119 | +370 | -599 |
Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +14.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $151 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +283 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +211 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +177 |
| Market (13 books) | +14.0 | +497 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +14.0 | -115 | -124 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +425 | +370 | priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUCF +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be UCF +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +2Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 51 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +100 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | +138 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 50.5 -117 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | +3 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -155 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 49.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 51 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +104 | 51 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 51.5 -109 | +127 | -170 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +102 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -142 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (11 books) | +3.5 | +150 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.5 | -115 | -123 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +135 | +130 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 51.1 consensus.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pmMissouri +5.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +1.5Sniff of Nasty · MissouriBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Missouri. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 59.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Missouri's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +152 38¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 59.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -110 | -162 | +133 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -120 | 59 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -107 | 59.5 -110 | -162 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 59.5 -112 | -165 | +132 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 59.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -178 | +146 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -185 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -116 | 59 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -119 | 58.5 -116 | -198 | +146 |
Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +5.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $3 available; Under 59.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 58.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game | |
| FPI | -6.0 | -180 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -183 |
| Massey | PK | +102 |
| Market (11 books) | -5.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +146 | +157 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -5.5 here against -3.5 consensus; total 59.5 here against 58.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmUnder 60.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 57.7 · getting 2.8 pts · was 57.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 60.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -117 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -110 | 59.5 -109 | -118 | -104 |
| BetRivers | -1 -112 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 59.5 -113 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | — | 54¢ -127 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | -126 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 59.5 -114 | -126 | -105 |
Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -152 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -184 |
| Market (11 books) | -1.5 | -109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -120 | -123 | +0.7% |
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -1.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 60.5 | -110 | -132 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.1.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.6 consensus.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amUnder 55should be 53.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 54.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Georgia State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Northern Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| Caesars | -9.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 55.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -380 | +260 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.0 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -296 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -164 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -335 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +9.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +320 | +266 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.0 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pmUnder 45should be 43.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 45.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 45.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Hawai'i too: market says Hawai'i by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 5.5, but at +100 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -120 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 45.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -120 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 45.5 -112 51¢ | +152 38¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +175 | -215 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 45.5 -113 | +170 | -220 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 44.5 -117 | +174 | -209 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +180 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -101 | 45 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +5.5 -116 | 45.5 -109 | +176 | -242 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +3.5, only $8 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $189 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +5.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wyoming's last game | |
| FPI | +9.0 | +251 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +127 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +103 |
| Market (13 books) | +3.5 | +197 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.5 | +100 | -108 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -185 | -173 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +5.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pmUnder 53should be 51.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 53.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +266 26¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 53.5 -103 49¢ | -360 77¢ | +266 26¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 53.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | -350 | +270 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -116 | 52.5 -116 | -391 | +265 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers -9.5, only $180 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -252 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -255 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -158 |
| Market (11 books) | -9.5 | -331 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +260 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at TennesseeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amOver 56should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 pts · was 56.5Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 5 to Texas by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | -208 66¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 55.5 -116 52¢ | — | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +185 | -230 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +6 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -112 | 57.5 -114 | +180 | -230 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 55.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -105 | 57 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | +172 | -210 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | +175 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +5.5 -111 | 57.5 -111 | +173 | -238 |
Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +4.5, only $0 available; Under 55.5, only $46 available; Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.5 consensus.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +213 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +122 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +203 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 61.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Longhorns -4.5 | -110 | +104 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Texas Longhorns ML | -208 | -171 | -4.5% |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -128 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.5 consensus; total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 57.5should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 | +109 46¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +115 | -139 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -115 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +115 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 58.5 -109 | +114 | -141 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 58.5 -114 | +112 | -132 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 58.5 -113 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 58.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -105 | 58.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -111 | 59 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -116 | 58.5 -114 | +105 | -139 |
Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -103 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -115 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +2.5 | -109 | -104 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +112 | +116 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -115 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 7.1.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmUnder 46Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 43.1 · getting 2.9 pts · was 43.5Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 46 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -118 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -115 | 46 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -109 | -435 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -450 | +340 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -118 | 44.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -109 | -435 | +325 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -455 | +325 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -113 | 44.5 -108 | -483 | +392 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 44.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -114 | 44.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 44.5 -114 | -490 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 44.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -527 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -274 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -621 |
| Market (12 books) | -10.0 | -408 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 39.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -9.5 | -115 | -110 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -410 | -333 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -115 | -134 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 44.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pmMinnesota +9should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Minnesota is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| BetMGM | -9 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -9.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -320 | +255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 46 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -114 | 45.5 -111 | -410 | +275 |
Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -9.5, only $3 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | -7.0 | -207 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -213 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -350 |
| Market (9 books) | -9.0 | -339 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 43.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.0 | -105 | -121 | +3.6% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +320 | +245 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston CollegeCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amBoston College +14.5should be Boston College +14 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +15Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Boston College's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Boston College spread | Total (over) | Boston College ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -121 53¢ | — | — | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 53.5 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 53.5 -113 | +440 | -715 |
| Caesars | +14 -107 | 54 -110 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | +14 -108 | 54.5 -108 | +508 | -646 |
| DraftKings | +14 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +490 | -675 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +16.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 52.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -115 | 54 +100 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -118 | 53.5 -115 | +490 | -710 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -101 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +14.5 -114 | 53.5 -119 | +420 | -725 |
Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Boston College +14.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 62°F, 39% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Boston College, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $12 available; Under 53.5, only $3 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game | |
| FPI | +15.0 | +505 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +314 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +134 |
| Market (11 books) | +14.5 | +616 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +14.5 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +495 | +429 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.9 consensus.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pmMichigan State +4.5should be Michigan State +5 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings PredictionsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -113 | +155 | -195 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 48 -110 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +158 | -192 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +175 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -106 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | +169 | -232 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +4.5 · 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.8 consensus.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +7.5 | +221 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +107 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (11 books) | +5.5 | +182 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +4.5 | -100 | -108 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +160 | +165 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.3.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.8 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pmTulsa +7.5should be Tulsa +7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +9.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulsa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | — | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -105 | 53 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | — | -290 73¢ | +229 29¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -335 | +255 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 52 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -7.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -113 | 52.5 -113 | -335 | +250 |
| Caesars | — | 52.5 -107 | -310 | +245 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -103 | 52.5 -106 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 52.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -320 | +255 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -108 | 52 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 52.5 -114 | -350 | +242 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.8 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5, only $15 available; Over 52.5, only $153 available; Under 52.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.8 consensus.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -286 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -679 |
| Market (11 books) | -7.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 58.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5 | -105 | -129 | +5.1% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +250 | +209 | +3.8% |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -115 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.8 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.
Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at BaylorCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmColorado +9.5should be Colorado +9.5 at TOM · was +6.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colorado is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 | -340 76¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Baylor spread | Total (over) | Baylor ML | Colorado ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 | -340 76¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -360 | +260 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -112 | -360 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -109 | 52.5 -113 | -360 | +255 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -112 | 53.5 -105 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -305 | +245 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 55.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -330 | +260 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -365 | +285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -9.5 -114 | 52.5 -116 | -380 | +260 |
Marked: best for Colorado, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado +9.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 2.2 away from Colorado, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $51 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -8.7 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game | |
| FPI | -11.0 | -313 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -327 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -181 |
| Market (13 books) | -9.5 | -306 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 53.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado Buffaloes +9.5 | -105 | -115 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Colorado Buffaloes ML | +285 | +264 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -8.7 consensus; total 55.0 here against 53.0 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNew Mexico State +14should be New Mexico State +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 14, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -110 | 49 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 +100 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +13.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +400 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 50.5 -114 | +370 | -560 |
| Caesars | +13.5 -103 | 49.5 -117 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | +13.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +470 | -650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -105 | 50 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -104 | 50.5 -110 | +460 | -650 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 +104 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +13.5 -105 | 50.5 -111 | +410 | -676 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F.
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 50.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen New Mexico's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +508 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +311 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +319 |
| Market (11 books) | +14.0 | +546 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 53.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +14.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +455 | +412 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -105 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus; total 49.0 here against 50.1 consensus.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUSC +3should be USC +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in USC's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 | 62.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -101 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
All 17 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -108 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +1.5 | 62.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -113 | 62 -113 | +105 | -127 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 62.5 -102 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -101 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2 -113 | 62 -113 | +105 | -127 |
| BetRivers | +2 -114 | 62 -114 | +104 | -129 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -107 | 62.5 -110 | +103 | -122 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -103 | 62.5 -108 | +104 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | +102 | -122 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 61.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +106 | -128 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | +100 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +103 | 61.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +1.5 -111 | 62.5 -111 | -102 | -130 |
Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is USC +3.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now +2.0. The market has moved 3.9 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +1.5, only $0 available; USC Trojans ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.1 consensus.
TOM: total 62.5 here against 62.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game | |
| FPI | +1.5 | +117 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +132 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (14 books) | +3.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | 61.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +3.0 | -108 | -113 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +117 | +124 | -1.4% |
| Total | Under 62.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.1 consensus; total 62.5 here against 62.2 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmKennesaw State +5should be Kennesaw State +4.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +5.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -135 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -178 |
| Massey | -7.5 | -221 |
| Market (12 books) | -5.0 | -175 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +5.0 | -110 | -115 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +163 | +161 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 54.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pmSouth Carolina +12.5should be South Carolina +12 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +11Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +373 20¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -524 83¢ | +373 20¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -11.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -113 | 53.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 53.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 57¢ -144 all-in | — | 82¢ -526 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -520 | +385 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -120 | 53.5 -120 | -515 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -500 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -106 | 53.5 -114 | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | -526 | +330 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.7 away from South Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5, only $1 available; South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.7 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -372 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -388 |
| Market (12 books) | -12.5 | -448 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 46.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +367 | +348 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -146 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.9.
TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.7 consensus; total 55.0 here against 53.4 consensus.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amJames Madison -4.5should be James Madison -5.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -161 60¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -110 | 47 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -161 60¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | +155 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +4.5 -108 | — | +155 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +5 -112 | 49.5 -109 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +5 -113 | 49.5 -110 | +155 | -195 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -106 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 49.5 -116 | +164 | -224 |
Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 49.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | +8.5 | +237 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +162 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +203 |
| Market (12 books) | +4.5 | +174 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -175 | -176 | +0.1% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -4.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -115 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 49.5 consensus.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amSouth Florida -17.5should be South Florida -17.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -148 58¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17.5 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -112 51¢ | 48.5 -148 58¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Bally Bet | +16.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 51 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +16.5 -110 | 51.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | +16.5 -112 | 51.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | +16.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +600 | -950 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -108 | 51.5 -108 | +706 | -987 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +675 | -1050 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +17.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 50.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 12¢ +614 all-in | 89¢ -1011 all-in |
| Fanatics | +16.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +600 | -900 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +580 | -880 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -101 | 51 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 51.5 -114 | +500 | -952 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +16.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward South Florida).
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +16.5 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1148 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +467 |
| Massey | +17.0 | +616 |
| Market (11 books) | +17.5 | +827 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons +17.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | +636 | +652 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +17.5 here against +16.5 consensus; total 50.0 here against 51.4 consensus.
The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amGeorgia Southern +18.5should be Georgia Southern +18 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | -1236 92¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -121 53¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Bally Bet | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetMGM | +19 -108 | — | +850 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +18.5 -109 | 54 -113 | +700 | -1250 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 -110 | 54 -114 | +700 | -1250 |
| Caesars | — | 55.5 -105 | +850 | -1450 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | +953 | -1467 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +900 | -1600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +17.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +19 -110 | 55 -110 | +750 | -1200 |
| FanDuel | +18.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +740 | -1250 |
| LowVig.ag | +19 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +19.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | +600 | -1299 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +19.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Georgia Southern).
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -17.5, only $156 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +18.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +16.5 | +579 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +542 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +459 |
| Market (12 books) | +18.5 | +1122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 54.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +19.5 | -110 | -115 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +900 | +689 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +18.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
The line is +18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amIllinois +27should be Illinois +26 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -27 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -26.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| BetMGM | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -26.5 -110 | 53.5 -112 | — | +1500 |
| BetRivers | -26.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | +1400 |
| Courtside | -27.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | — | +2246 |
| DraftKings | -27.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -27.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 52.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | 4¢ +1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | -27.5 -110 | 53 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -26.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -27.5 -106 | 53 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -27.5 -116 | 53.5 -114 | — | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -24.5 | -1644 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -957 |
| Massey | -21.0 | -1043 |
| Market (11 books) | -27.0 | -3891 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini +27.5 | -108 | -106 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | +1779 | +2016 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -105 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.3 consensus.
The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at LouisvilleCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amLouisville -13should be Louisville -13 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 13.5 to Louisville by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 57.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 57.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -110 | 58 -112 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -112 | 58 -113 | -625 | +425 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -112 | 57.5 -118 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 57.5 -115 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 58.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 58 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 58.5 -109 | -599 | +370 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -13.5, only $59 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $154 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $164 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -11.5 | -329 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -377 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -327 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.0 | -525 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -13.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.3% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -535 | -395 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00amSouthern Miss +19.5should be Southern Miss +18 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -19.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -116 52¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -18.5 -109 | 54.5 -113 | -1250 | +700 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 54.5 -114 | -1250 | +700 |
| Caesars | — | 53.5 -117 | — | — |
| Courtside | -18.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -1450 | +850 |
| Fanatics | -19 -110 | 54 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +980 |
| LowVig.ag | -19 -106 | 54 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -109 | 54.5 -111 | -1299 | +610 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulane).
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.1 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -498 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -947 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -667 |
| Market (11 books) | -19.5 | -1156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +20.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +980 | +702 | priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulane Green Wave since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.1 consensus; total 52.5 here against 54.1 consensus.
The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at KentuckyCFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45amSouth Alabama +20.5should be South Alabama +19.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -115 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -107 50¢ | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -110 | 56 -112 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -105 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -19.5 -110 | 56 -112 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -112 | 56 -113 | -1430 | +750 |
| Caesars | — | 55.5 -114 | -1700 | +900 |
| Courtside | -19.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 50¢ -108 all-in | — | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -120 | 56.5 -105 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -101 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 56.5 -111 | -1408 | +620 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $181 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | -18.0 | -704 |
| Sagarin | -25.5 | -1919 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -531 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -1262 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 53.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +20.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +900 | +845 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.0 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmMichigan -4.5should be Michigan -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Michigan by 5.5 to Michigan by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -143 57¢ | 37.5 | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 38 -105 | — | — |
All 17 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4.5 -110 | 38 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -143 57¢ | 37.5 | -191 64¢ | +159 37¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetMGM | — | 38.5 -105 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5 -110 | 38 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -4.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -205 | +165 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -112 | 37.5 -113 | -210 | +163 |
| Caesars | — | 38.5 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -106 | 38.5 -103 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 38.5 -102 | -198 | +164 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 37.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 38 -105 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -200 | +164 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | -205 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | -200 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -5 -106 | 38 -103 | — | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -116 | 38.5 -109 | -210 | +154 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, only $10 available; Over 37.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -166 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (14 books) | -4.5 | -184 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -4.5 | -110 | +108 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -191 | -165 | -3.4% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUtah -10should be Utah -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 10, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +10.5 -108 | 49.5 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -109 | 49.5 -110 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +380 | -500 |
| Courtside | +10.5 -103 | 49.5 -103 | +392 | -483 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +380 | -500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 49.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11 -110 | 49 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +385 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +350 | -500 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -114 | 49.5 -109 | +340 | -549 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Iowa State).
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.8 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game | |
| FPI | +10.0 | +278 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +142 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +213 |
| Market (11 books) | +10.0 | +447 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -10.0 | -110 | +114 | -5.7% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -500 | -285 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmNotre Dame -27.5should be Notre Dame -27 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -107 50¢ | +1775 5¢ | -2580 96¢ |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -109 | 57.5 -112 | +1500 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | +1400 | — |
| Caesars | +27.5 -107 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| Courtside | +27.5 -103 | 56.5 -113 | +2246 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +2000 | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | +27.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 5¢ +1329 all-in | 96¢ -4900 all-in |
| Fanatics | +28 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1800 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +28.5 -115 | 57.5 -110 | +1200 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +27.5 -101 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +28.5 -119 | 57.5 -114 | +1025 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +26.0 | +2132 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +639 |
| Massey | +25.0 | +1756 |
| Market (12 books) | +27.5 | +3747 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Purdue Boilermakers +28.0 | -115 | -103 | -2.9% |
| Moneyline | Purdue Boilermakers ML | +2000 | +2421 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmMassachusetts -5.5should be Massachusetts -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Massachusetts by 6 to Massachusetts by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -120 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
All 10 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 49 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -120 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +6 -112 | 49.5 -118 | +198 | -240 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 48.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 50 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -114 | 49.5 -118 | +188 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -116 | 49.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 50.5 -111 | +185 | -255 |
Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Massachusetts).
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game | |
| FPI | +11.5 | +330 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -110 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -178 |
| Market (8 books) | +5.5 | +218 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -5.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.2% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -235 | -185 | -5.2% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +6.2 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas TechCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmUnder 55should be 53.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 55.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 35.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Texas Tech spread | Total (over) | Texas Tech ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -35.5 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37 -114 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37 -114 | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37 -114 | 55.5 -114 | — | — |
| Caesars | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -37.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -35.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37.5 -110 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37.5 -106 | 55 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Sam Houston).
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -37.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -27.0 | -2379 |
| Sagarin | -32.0 | — |
| Massey | -35.0 | — |
| Market (10 books) | -35.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +37.5 | -110 | -134 | +4.9% |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -35.5 here against -37.4 consensus.
The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at ToledoCFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pmToledo -2.5should be Toledo -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -1 -106 | 47.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -1 -106 | 47.5 -109 | -110 | -110 |
| BetRivers | -1 -107 | 47.5 -110 | -112 | -112 |
| Caesars | — | 48.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -1.5 -103 | 48.5 -108 | -113 | -103 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -134 | +112 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 50 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | -125 | -106 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo).
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -3.5 | -145 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -146 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -147 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -107 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +2.5 | -110 | +103 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +112 | +124 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -115 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pmVirginia -20.5should be Virginia -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -121 53¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -20.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -20.5 -109 | 54.5 -112 | -2000 | +850 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1700 | +900 |
| Courtside | -21 -108 | 54.5 -108 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 52.5 59¢ -157 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -106 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -21.5 -109 | 54.5 -119 | -1587 | +670 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $185 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $202 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -15.5 | -515 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1163 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -2106 |
| Market (12 books) | -20.5 | -1411 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +21.0 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +900 | +916 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pmUnder 54.5should be 51.3 · getting 3.3 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.
The spread
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -116 52¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -42 -110 | 55.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -115 | 54.5 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -42.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -42.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -42 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -42 -106 | 55.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game | |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -38.5 | — |
| Market (11 books) | -42.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +42.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -138 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmNC State -13.5should be NC State -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -118 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -110 | -530 | +390 |
| BetRivers | -13.5 -113 | 54.5 -112 | -530 | +370 |
| Caesars | -14 -108 | 55 -110 | -560 | +400 |
| Courtside | -14 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14 -105 | 55 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -580 | +420 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -101 | 55 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -649 | +390 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward NC State).
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -981 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -533 |
| Market (12 books) | -13.5 | -494 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers +13.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | +400 | +411 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pmUtah State -2.5should be Utah State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +106 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -140 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -207 |
| Market (12 books) | -2.5 | -126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +2.5 | -104 | +104 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +115 | +126 | -2.2% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmMissouri State +34.5should be Missouri State +33 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -113 | 59.5 -113 | — | — |
| Caesars | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -108 | — | +2100 |
| Courtside | -34.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 59.5 49¢ -104 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -105 | 59.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -34.5 -106 | 59.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -111 | 59.5 -111 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
TOM: total 58.0 here against 59.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game | |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2727 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -29.0 | -3184 |
| Market (13 books) | -34.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 54.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +34.5 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +4290 | +5997 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 58.0 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 58.0 here against 59.5 consensus.
The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pmOregon State -12should be Oregon State -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 11.5 to Oregon State by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +11.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Oregon State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +14.0 | +432 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +238 |
| Massey | +11.5 | +329 |
| Market (11 books) | +12.0 | +451 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -12.0 | -110 | +107 | -4.0% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -549 | -362 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -121 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.6.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pmFresno State -13should be Fresno State -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -501 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -456 |
| Massey | -15.0 | -503 |
| Market (9 books) | -13.0 | -504 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -540 | -421 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.7.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -5should be Georgia Tech -5.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia Tech by 5.5 to Georgia Tech by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 11 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +4.5 | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +159 37¢ | -200 65¢ |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 47.5 -104 | +158 | -190 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 46.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -115 | 46.5 -110 | +160 | -194 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 47.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | +4.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +167 | -230 |
Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Stanford).
Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +4.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +223 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +165 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +201 |
| Market (9 books) | +5.0 | +177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0 | -110 | +104 | -3.4% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -190 | -177 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty14-1745%-4.19 units31 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
2-5 · -3.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 14-17 | 45.2% | -4.2 u | |
| Not Nasty | 131 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 13:55.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 71 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.67 | 56 |
| FPI | 9.86 | 111 |
| SP+ | 10.03 | 111 |
| The market | 10.21 | 162 |
| Sagarin | 11.70 | 152 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 57 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.03 | 56 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.02 | 57 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 71 |
The line archive, 162 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.46 points better than the close on average over 152 games. The close misses the final by 10.10, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.32, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.33, MyBookie.ag 9.83, Kalshi 9.91.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.13 | 17 |
| nfelo | 11.26 | 17 |
| Sagarin | 11.73 | 17 |
The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.
The head start. 46 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 11 times, against it 11, average 0.13 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 11.
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 52 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 17 of 52 moved our way, average +0.3 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 17. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| App State at NC State | Appalachian State +13.5 | 13.5 | 13.7 | -0.2 | no call |
| Hawai'i at Wyoming | Under | 45.5 | 45 | +0.5 | no call |
| James Madison at Old Dominion | James Madison -3 | -3 | -4.5 | +1.5 | no call |
| Minnesota at Washington | Minnesota Golden +9.3 | 9.3 | 8.5 | +0.8 | no call |
| Nebraska at Michigan State | Over | 48.1 | 49 | +0.9 | no call |
| San Diego State at Toledo | Toledo +1.8 | 1.8 | -2.5 | +4.3 | no call |
| South Florida at Bowling Green | Under | 53.5 | 51 | +2.5 | no call |
| Tulsa at Arkansas | Tulsa Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 7 | +2.5 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 113 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 62 | 14.8 | 18-27 (40%) | 12-14 (46%) |
| Massey | 66 | 13.8 | 14-17 (45%) | 5-11 (31%) |
| The blend | 67 | 14.1 | 14-23 (38%) | 9-11 (45%) |
NFL, 14 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 10.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 10 | 13.0 | 4-5 (44%) | 1-2 (33%) |
| FPI | 8 | 13.2 | 2-0 (100%) | 2-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 10 | 11.2 | 4-1 (80%) | 1-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 60 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.
Since 5:01pm
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 2.6Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
- → 2.2Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bearstoward Baylor Bearswith the public
- → 2.0Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 26%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 78 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 63 | 8.27 |
| FPI | 120 | 10.02 |
| SP+ | 111 | 10.03 |
| The market | 186 | 10.37 |
| Sagarin | 176 | 11.75 |
| nfelo | 24 | 11.77 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 82-90 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 823101 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.16 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 115 | 1.78 |
| DraftKings | 248 | 1.43 |
| FanDuel | 294 | 1.35 |
| LowVig.ag | 225 | 1.34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 232 | 1.33 |
| BetRivers | 263 | 1.25 |
| BetMGM | 202 | 1.24 |
| Bovada | 199 | 1.21 |
| Caesars | 197 | 1.15 |
| Pinnacle | 198 | 1.14 |
| BetUS | 156 | 1.14 |
| MyBookie.ag | 159 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 239 | 1.00 |
| Courtside | 26 | 0.96 |
| Fanatics | 236 | 0.96 |
| ReBet | 75 | 0.65 |
| betPARX | 43 | 0.60 |
| Bally Bet | 43 | 0.60 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 54 | 0.51 |
| theScore Bet | 39 | 0.45 |
| Fliff | 34 | 0.18 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated today
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
- SP+ updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin updated today
- Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
- nfelo updated 4 days ago