Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
In progress
Running now
Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech -3-108 at BetMGM+4.7%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 9:19am at -3 -108. Now Georgia Tech -3 -108. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 2 pts-5 open Sunnow -3Nasty Number -4.5Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better.Air Force at NevadaMoved our way · 1 ptNevada +5 -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 3:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Nevada +6 · -115 at TOM, a point better, 10 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
Three Nasty Picks on the counter for Saturday: Georgia Tech -3, Nevada +5 -105 at TOM and Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Straight bets. Don't make it a parlay.
UCLA at Maryland, Maryland +3. Every system has Maryland by 0.5; the market has UCLA by 3. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +3.5.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Hawai'i -2 (Hawai'i at Wyoming) at 4.4% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49, down 2.5 since the open.
Since the last build, UCLA at Maryland climbed to Damn Near Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Georgia Tech at Stanford, Georgia Tech -3. Conviction is the whole point of the rung. This is it.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Georgia Tech at StanfordMoved our way · 3 ptsGeorgia Tech to win-144 at FanDuel+5.2%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Damn Near Nasty
1 game where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +3.5 for -115 at TOM · half a point away
Where, best first (Maryland): TOM +3 at -115 (1.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (0.8%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -106 (-0.1%) · Kalshi or Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-0.4%).A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: Louisiana at Charlotte, Over 49. The total has come down 2.5 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 49.5 at 49¢ (3.8%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -104 (3.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (3.3%) · TOM 49 at -115 (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 49 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); -115 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Hawai'i): TOM -2 at -108 (4.4%) · BetMGM -2 at -110 (3.9%) · DraftKings -2.5 at -105 (3.9%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 50¢ (3.4%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -110 (2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): Caesars 61 at -108 (1.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 61.5 at -115 (0.9%) · TOM 61 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -105 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 61.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 61 (the games that land on 61); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Tulsa): BetMGM or TOM +7 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Caesars +7 at -109 (2.8%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 47¢ (2.8%) · DraftKings +7 at -110 (2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +7.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +7 (the games that land on 7); -122 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -108. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Penn State): Caesars -10 at -107 (2.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -10 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings -10 at -112 (1.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (1.2%) · TOM -10 at -118 (-0.0%).Points or price: -9.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10 (the games that land on 10); -120 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -107. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (2.3%) · Caesars +3 at -115 (2.2%) · TOM +3 at -116 (2.0%) · DraftKings +3 at -118 (1.6%) · Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3 buys about 5 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -115 costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than 47¢. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel -6.5 at -110 (1.8%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -112 (1.3%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 52¢ (0.5%) · DraftKings -7 at -105 (-0.2%) · TOM -6.5 at -120 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Sacramento State): BetMGM +5 at -110 (2.0%) · TOM +4.5 at -108 (1.5%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (1.0%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jacksonville State): DraftKings -7.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · BetMGM -7.5 at -108 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Troy): BetMGM +3 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3 at -112 (1.7%) · TOM +3 at -114 (1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +100 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): BetMGM or TOM +3 at -112 (1.1%) · DraftKings +3 at -115 (0.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel +2.5 at +101 (0.4%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or DraftKings 55.5 at -105 (0.4%) · TOM 55 at -112 (0.1%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · Caesars 55.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 55 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 55.5 (the games that land on 55); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 42.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 42.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · TOM 43 at -115 (-1.7%) · Caesars 42.5 at -109 (-1.9%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-2.2%).Points or price: 43 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 42.5 (the games that land on 43); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Moved closer since the 9:40am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 9:40am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UCLA at Maryland 12:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +1.5 to +3.0; the price from -110 to -115; the market drifted 1.3 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Ole Miss at Florida 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Ole Miss +4.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +3.5 to +4.0. - New Mexico at New Mexico State 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
Nasty Pick at New Mexico -11.5: 3.3 cents short at today's line, was 5.7.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
52 gamesBest: Georgia Tech -3.0, Nasty PickGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at StanfordCFB 9:30pmGeorgia Tech -3Moved our way · 3 ptsshould be Georgia Tech -4.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -108 at BetMGM · was -5.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take Georgia Tech -3.0 at -108 at BetMGM. Market says Georgia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Georgia Tech's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +131 | -148 |
All 20 books
| Stanford spread | Total (over) | Stanford ML | Georgia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -116 52¢ | +129 42¢ | -155 59¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -112 | 48 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 49 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -112 | 49.5 -108 | +132 | -152 |
| betPARX | +3 -112 | 48 -110 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -113 | 48 -112 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 49 -105 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -106 | 48.5 -112 | +133 | -157 |
| Courtside | — | 51.5 -161 | +133 | -152 |
| DraftKings | +3 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +102 | 48.5 -106 | +120 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -120 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -108 | 49.5 -106 | +132 | -152 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +129 | -158 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -109 | 48.5 -112 | +131 | -148 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 2.5 away from Georgia Tech, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +284 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +185 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +302 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | -144 | -180 | +5.2% |
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets -3.0 | -108 | -130 | +4.7% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -112 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.6 consensus.
Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at NevadaCFB 9:30pmNevada +5 -105 at TOMMoved our way · 1 ptBet it · now Nevada +6 · -115 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +5 -105Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Nevada +5 -105 at TOM. Bet it. Nevada +6 · -115 at TOM, a point better, 10 cents worse than the +5 -105 we posted on Monday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Air Force by 6, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Air Force by 5 to Air Force by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.6 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 50 -114 | +194 | -226 |
All 20 books
| Nevada spread | Total (over) | Nevada ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +180 | -230 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetAnything | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6 -115 | 50.5 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -107 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -284 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 50.5 -110 | +195 | -238 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -106 | 50.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +185 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6 -111 | 50.5 -108 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +192 | -242 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 50 -114 | +194 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Air Force).
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +180 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +121 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Nevada Wolf Pack ML | +195 | +182 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Nevada Wolf Pack +6.0 | -115 | -111 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +214 consensus.
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSUCFB 6:30pmTexas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGMDon't chase · now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called at +9.5 -108Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Texas A&M +9.5 -108 at BetMGM on Monday; now Texas A&M +8 · -110 at Fanatics. The number is 1.5 points worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -108 to -110, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +9.5, you're set. It's a play again at +9.5 -108 or better. Market says LSU by 8, the Nasty Number says LSU by 7.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +100 | 52 -109 | -333 | +275 |
All 21 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -8.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -340 76¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +260 |
| BetAnything | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -8 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -325 | +270 |
| BetOnline.ag | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -345 | +260 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -112 | 52.5 -112 | -345 | +255 |
| BetUS | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -345 | +278 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -8.5 -107 | 52.5 -107 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | — | 56.5 -168 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 52.5 -105 | -345 | +275 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 52 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -320 | +255 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 52.5 -115 | -350 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -350 | +260 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -106 | 52 -108 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +100 | 52 -109 | -333 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -8.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -8.5. The market has moved 1.5 toward Texas A&M, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -194 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -104 |
| Market (19 books) | -8.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +270 | +254 | +1.2% |
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +8.0 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Texas A&M Aggies since 09-20 21:56.
TOM: spread -8.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at MarylandCFB 12:30pmMaryland +3should be Maryland +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2▲Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Maryland +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Maryland's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +121 | -146 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 56 -110 | +122 | -137 |
All 20 books
| Maryland spread | Total (over) | Maryland ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +121 | -146 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 -112 51¢ | +118 44¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 57 -108 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 56.5 -108 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +126 | -146 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 57 -108 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 57 -109 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 55.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 56 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 55.5 -111 | +116 | -137 |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -632 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -102 | 55.5 -112 | +120 | -142 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 56.5 -110 | +112 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +110 | -145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -114 | 55.5 -108 | +126 | -146 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 56 -110 | +116 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 56 -110 | +122 | -137 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +100 | 56.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for Maryland, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Maryland +3.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Under, weather, now Damn Near Nasty. The line went from +2.0 to +3.0.
A play at +3.5 or better.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -107 |
| FPI | -0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -110 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +126 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +3.0 | -115 | -123 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +121 | +115 | +1.3% |
| Total | Under 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-20 21:56; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at WyomingCFB 2:00pmHawai'i -2Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be Hawai'i -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -5.5A Little Nasty · Hawai'iBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Hawai'i. Market says Hawai'i by 2, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 44.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -112 | 44.5 -102 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -112 | 43.5 -118 | +108 | -122 |
All 19 books
| Wyoming spread | Total (over) | Wyoming ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -112 | 44.5 -102 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | +105 47¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1 -112 | 43.5 -118 | -107 | -115 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 43.5 -118 | +105 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -112 | 44.5 -102 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +1 -112 | 43.5 -118 | -107 | -115 |
| BetRivers | +1 -112 | 43.5 -118 | -107 | -115 |
| BetUS | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Courtside | — | 60.5 -1882 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -104 | +106 | -128 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 43.5 -120 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -108 | 44.5 -106 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +107 | -130 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -112 | 43.5 -118 | +108 | -122 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 44.5 +100 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i -2.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +2.0. The market has moved 3.3 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 43.7 consensus.
BetRivers still has Hawai'i -1.0 while Pinnacle is at Hawai'i by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +306 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +115 |
| Market (17 books) | +2.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 41.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.0 | -108 | -129 | +4.4% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -125 | -149 | +4.3% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -118 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 43.7 consensus.
Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn StateCFB 4:00pmPenn State -10should be Penn State -11.5 · getting 1.5 pts at CaesarsA Little Nasty · Penn StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Penn State. Market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. At -107 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -118 | 44 -112 | -390 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 44 -107 | -391 | +316 |
All 20 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | Wisconsin ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -118 | 44 -112 | -390 | +300 |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 43.5 -118 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -118 | 44 -112 | -390 | +310 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 44 -108 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44 -109 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -390 | +312 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -410 | +305 |
| Caesars | -10 -107 | 43.5 -118 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -706 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +300 |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 43.5 -125 | -415 | +305 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -111 | 44 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 44 -110 | -421 | +319 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 44 -107 | -391 | +316 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for Penn State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Penn State -10.0 · -107 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -585 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -562 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -326 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -552 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -373 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -10.0 | -107 | -118 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -390 | -400 | +0.4% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -108 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at ArkansasCFB 7:00pmTulsa +7should be Tulsa +6 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM · was +9.5A Little Nasty · TulsaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Tulsa. Market says Arkansas by 7, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 6. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulsa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 51 -101 | -268 | +227 |
All 20 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +210 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -126 54¢ | 50.5 -116 52¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -112 | 50.5 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -112 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +222 |
| betPARX | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +230 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50.5 -112 | -305 | +230 |
| BetUS | -7 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -260 | +218 |
| Bovada | — | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 50.5 -113 | -265 | +215 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -880 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -120 | -290 | +220 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -300 | +225 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -108 | 50.5 -114 | -270 | +222 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 51 -101 | -268 | +227 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +105 | 50.5 -115 | -280 | +230 |
Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.0 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -144 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -346 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -258 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +235 | +200 | +3.5% |
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.0 | -108 | -122 | +3.1% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.
Sagarin and Massey are on the other side. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old DominionCFB 5:00pmJames Madison -6.5should be James Madison -7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was -4.5A Little Nasty · James MadisonBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, James Madison. Market says James Madison by 6.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 7. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but James Madison is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 6 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -113 | 42.5 -110 | +207 | -241 |
All 19 books
| Old Dominion spread | Total (over) | Old Dominion ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -109 | 43 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -109 | 43 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -110 | 43 -109 | +190 | -250 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -715 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +210 | -258 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +198 | -245 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -110 | 42.5 -120 | +195 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +225 | -300 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +104 | 43.5 -108 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +230 | -295 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -113 | 42.5 -110 | +207 | -241 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 41.5 -115 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison -6.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 64°F, 24% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.2 toward James Madison, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $331 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 42.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +299 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +182 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +295 |
| Market (17 books) | +6.5 | +214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -6.5 | -110 | -118 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -239 | -253 | +1.1% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 13:55; total has moved down 7.0.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 42.6 consensus.
UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento StateCFB 8:00pmSacramento State +4.5should be Sacramento State +3.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +5.5A Little Nasty · Sacramento StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Sacramento State. Market says Massachusetts by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 3.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Sacramento State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -116 | +165 | -189 |
All 18 books
| Sacramento State spread | Total (over) | Sacramento State ML | Massachusetts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Bally Bet | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | +160 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4.5 -108 | 49 -110 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetRivers | +5 -109 | 48.5 -113 | +165 | -210 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -2122 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +160 | -192 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +160 | -194 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 48.5 -120 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4.5 -104 | 49 -108 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 -116 | +165 | -189 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 49.5 -105 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Sacramento State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Sacramento State +4.5 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -108 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +395 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -170 |
| Market (17 books) | +4.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sacramento State Hornets +4.5 | -108 | -115 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Sacramento State Hornets ML | +160 | +156 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Sacramento State Hornets since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.8.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.7 consensus.
UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)CFB 2:30pmUConn +3should be UConn +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 3, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 52 -111 | -139 | +123 |
All 19 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | -155 59¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -115 | 51.5 -118 | -159 | +130 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -3 -115 | 51.5 -118 | -159 | +130 |
| BetRivers | -3 -115 | 51.5 -118 | -162 | +130 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 52 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| Courtside | — | 58.5 -217 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 52.5 -106 | -152 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 51.5 -125 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 52.5 -108 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 52 -110 | -154 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +103 | 52 -111 | -139 | +123 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 52.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +3.0 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.6 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -110 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -146 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (17 books) | -3.0 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +129 | +120 | +1.7% |
| Spread | UConn Huskies +3.0 | -112 | -117 | +1.1% |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 3.6.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 52.1 consensus.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateCFB 6:00pmJacksonville State -7should be Jacksonville State -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · was -9A Little Nasty · Jacksonville StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jacksonville State. Market says Jacksonville State by 7, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Jacksonville State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jacksonville State -7.0 · -110. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 2.1 away from Jacksonville State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -18.0 | -736 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -215 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -405 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -254 |
| Market (17 books) | -7.0 | -272 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville State Gamecocks -7.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville State Gamecocks ML | -286 | -280 | -0.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.3.
Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah StateCFB 6:30pmTroy +3should be Troy +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · TroyBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Troy. Market says Utah State by 3, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -106 | 47 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -113 | -145 | +128 |
All 19 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Troy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -106 | 47 -110 | -147 | +122 |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -137 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -106 | 47 -110 | -147 | +127 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | -137 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 46.5 -122 | -137 | +110 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 47 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -108 | 47 -113 | -150 | +126 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1535 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -102 | -148 | +124 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -105 | -144 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 47.5 -110 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -102 | 47 -108 | -147 | +127 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47 -110 | -149 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 47 -113 | -145 | +128 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Troy, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Troy +3.0 · -114 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +104 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -153 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -180 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Troy Trojans +3.0 | -114 | -120 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | Troy Trojans ML | +122 | +118 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 6.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at CincinnatiCFB 6:00pmOver 55should be 56.2 · getting 1.2 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 55.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 5.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 2 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -116 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 55 -112 | +193 | -224 |
All 19 books
| Cincinnati spread | Total (over) | Cincinnati ML | Kansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -116 | 55 -112 | +180 | -230 |
| Bally Bet | +6 -113 | 55.5 -113 | +195 | -250 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -116 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6 -112 | 55.5 -108 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -116 | 55 -112 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +6 -113 | 55.5 -113 | +195 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6 -113 | 55.5 -113 | +195 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +6 -110 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -552 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +6 -112 | 55.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -235 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | +190 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +180 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -112 | 55 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 55 -110 | +189 | -238 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -105 | 55 -112 | +193 | -224 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 55.5 -105 | +190 | -225 |
Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +173 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +145 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +103 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +192 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +195 | +190 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5 | -116 | -112 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -112 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.0 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +213 consensus.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at CharlotteCFB 5:30pmOver 49Moved our way · 2.5 ptsshould be 51.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 49.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisiana by 10, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 9.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4 points since it opened, from Louisiana by 14 to Louisiana by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -115 | 49 -115 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -108 | 49 -114 | +327 | -407 |
All 19 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10 -115 | 49 -115 | +300 | -410 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +313 23¢ | -381 78¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +325 | -425 |
| BetMGM | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10 -115 | 49 -115 | +324 | -410 |
| betPARX | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +10 -109 | 48.5 -115 | +340 | -480 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 49 -115 | +320 | -400 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +315 | -420 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -1226 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 49.5 -104 | +310 | -400 |
| Fliff | +9.5 -110 | 48.5 -125 | +320 | -435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +325 | -450 |
| LowVig.ag | +10 -111 | 49 -114 | +324 | -410 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10 -110 | 49 -110 | +311 | -421 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -108 | 49 -114 | +327 | -407 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +10.0 (the market moved 3.5 toward Charlotte). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: moneyline +314 here against +380 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +14.5 | +533 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +260 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +278 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (17 books) | +10.0 | +314 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 56.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +10.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +320 | +312 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -127 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM: moneyline +314 here against +380 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West VirginiaCFB 6:00pmUnder 61Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 59.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 61.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 5.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 2, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from West Virginia by 2.5 to West Virginia by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 61 -106 | -118 | +105 |
All 19 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Oklahoma State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| Bally Bet | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetAnything | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -127 | +107 |
| betPARX | -2 -109 | 60.5 -112 | -125 | +104 |
| BetRivers | -2 -110 | 60.5 -113 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -110 | 61 -115 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 61 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -113 | 61 -112 | -121 | +103 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -604 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 60.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | -126 | +105 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 60.5 -125 | -130 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -106 | 61 -108 | -127 | +107 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 61 -110 | -129 | +106 |
| Pinnacle | -2 -101 | 61 -106 | -118 | +105 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the West Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 61.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 62°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward West Virginia).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +128 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -122 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -195 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.0 | -122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.0 | 55.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers -2.0 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | -121 | -116 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 61.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-20 08:31; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno StateCFB 9:00pmFresno State -13.5should be Fresno State -14 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -530 | +380 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -101 | 43.5 -112 | -526 | +406 |
All 19 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -530 | +380 |
| Bally Bet | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -520 | +395 |
| BetMGM | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -530 | +403 |
| betPARX | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetRivers | -12 -112 | 44.5 -107 | -625 | +430 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -105 | 43 -115 | -530 | +410 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -550 | +390 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -104 | 43.5 -115 | -530 | +400 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -688 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -535 | +400 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +430 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -125 | 43.5 -120 | -580 | +405 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -101 | 43 -114 | -530 | +403 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 44 -110 | -589 | +409 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -101 | 43.5 -112 | -526 | +406 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State -13.5 · +100 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.5 | -616 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -511 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -555 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -507 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 41.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs -13.5 | +100 | -109 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | -530 | -487 | priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.2 consensus; total 43.0 here against 43.5 consensus.
TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCFCFB 2:30pmUCF +3should be UCF +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +2Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says TCU by 3, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 48 -112 | +132 | -157 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 48.5 -102 | +134 | -152 |
All 20 books
| UCF spread | Total (over) | UCF ML | TCU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -106 | 48 -112 | +132 | -157 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 49.5 +109 46¢ | +129 42¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -106 | 48 -115 | +137 | -157 |
| BetMGM | +3 -108 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -106 | 48 -112 | +137 | -157 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 48.5 -109 | +130 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +3 -110 | 48 -115 | +130 | -150 |
| Caesars | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +134 | -159 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -562 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -108 | 48.5 -108 | +136 | -162 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -156 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 48.5 -115 | +125 | -160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +130 | -155 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -102 | 48 -110 | +137 | -157 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 48.5 -102 | +134 | -152 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.0 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.5 | +161 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -159 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +139 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +3.0 | -106 | -114 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +132 | +123 | +1.6% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -112 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.
Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at FloridaCFB 2:30pmOle Miss +4should be Ole Miss +3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +3Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 4, the Nasty Number says Florida by 3.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ole Miss's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 59 -105 | -176 | +146 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 59 -106 | -175 | +154 |
All 20 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 59 -105 | -176 | +146 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 59.5 -103 49¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +148 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -115 | 59 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 59 -105 | -176 | +154 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -105 | 59 -110 | -180 | +148 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -108 | 59 -112 | -182 | +145 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 59.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -120 | 59 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -4 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -176 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 80.5 -1735 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -4 -108 | 58.5 -115 | -170 | +142 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -184 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 58.5 -120 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 59 -110 | -189 | +152 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -109 | 59 -106 | -175 | +154 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +4.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -177 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +171 |
| Market (18 books) | -4.0 | -168 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 58.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ole Miss Rebels +4.0 | -110 | -113 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Ole Miss Rebels ML | +146 | +150 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-21 09:08; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.6 consensus.
Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USCCFB 6:30pmUSC +3.5should be USC +3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but USC is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -112 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -108 | 61 -103 | +156 | -178 |
All 21 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Oregon ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -112 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 61.5 -103 49¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 61 -112 | +143 | -180 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -105 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -112 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 61 -112 | +143 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 61 -113 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -117 | 61.5 -108 | +150 | -180 |
| Courtside | — | 80.5 -798 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 61.5 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -114 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 60.5 -125 | +145 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 60.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61 -108 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 61 -110 | +147 | -182 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -108 | 61 -103 | +156 | -178 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +146 here against +166 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +131 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +167 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.5 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 64.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +150 | +143 | +1.1% |
| Spread | USC Trojans +3.5 | -110 | -112 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 61.5 | -112 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-21 14:47; total has moved down 1.1.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.1 consensus; moneyline +146 here against +166 consensus.
Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia StateCFB 1:00pmNorthern Illinois +10.5should be Northern Illinois +9.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Northern Illinois's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 +100 | 56.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 56 -113 | -390 | +315 |
All 18 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Northern Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 +100 | 56.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -113 | 55.5 -118 | -435 | +325 |
| BetAnything | -10 -105 | 56 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 +100 | 56.5 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -113 | 55.5 -118 | -435 | +325 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -113 | 56.5 -109 | -455 | +325 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -390 | +312 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -410 | +305 |
| Courtside | — | 40.5 +509 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -380 | +300 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 56.5 -112 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -125 | 56.5 -115 | -410 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 +103 | 56.5 -108 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -356 | +276 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -107 | 56 -113 | -390 | +315 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 56.5 -115 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.0 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -119 |
| FPI | -10.5 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -375 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -191 |
| Market (17 books) | -10.5 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 53.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northern Illinois Huskies +10.5 | -115 | -116 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Northern Illinois Huskies ML | +310 | +312 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.0 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at AuburnCFB 3:15pmVanderbilt +10should be Vanderbilt +9 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Auburn by 10, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Vanderbilt's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 54.5 -105 | -376 | +305 |
All 20 books
| Auburn spread | Total (over) | Auburn ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -360 77¢ | +280 25¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -107 | 54.5 -109 | -385 | +295 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -385 | +305 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -10 -107 | 54.5 -109 | -385 | +295 |
| BetRivers | -10 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -400 | +295 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -385 | +308 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -10 -108 | 54.5 -118 | -380 | +300 |
| Courtside | — | 75.5 -843 | -383 | +319 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -395 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -122 | 54.5 -112 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -105 | 54.5 -120 | -395 | +295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 54.5 -108 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -106 | 54.5 -105 | -376 | +305 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -172 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -307 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -308 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -156 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +10.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +310 | +307 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-21 09:08; total has moved down 1.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at PurdueCFB 1:00pmNotre Dame -27should be Notre Dame -27 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Notre Dame by 27.5 to Notre Dame by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 57 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -101 | +1827 | — |
All 21 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +27 -110 | 57 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +1775 5¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -109 | +1700 | — |
| BetAnything | +27 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +1675 | — |
| BetMGM | +27 -108 | 57.5 -112 | +1900 | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +27 -110 | 57 -105 | +1592 | — |
| betPARX | +27.5 -113 | 57.5 -109 | +1700 | — |
| BetRivers | +27.5 -114 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| BetUS | +27 -110 | 57 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1300 | — |
| Caesars | +27 -104 | 56.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Courtside | — | 72.5 -669 | +1878 | — |
| DraftKings | +27.5 -115 | 56.5 -115 | +1700 | — |
| Fanatics | +27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1800 | — |
| FanDuel | +27.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +1600 | — |
| Fliff | +27.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +1100 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +27 -106 | 57 -103 | +1592 | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +27.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +1355 | — |
| Pinnacle | +27.5 -106 | 57.5 -101 | +1827 | — |
| theScore Bet | +27.5 -105 | 57.5 -105 | +1500 | — |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Kalshi thin: Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML, only $22 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.4 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2059 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1995 |
| Sagarin | +17.0 | +666 |
| Massey | +24.0 | +1499 |
| Market (19 books) | +27.0 | +3651 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -27.0 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML | -5000 | -2210 | priced at 98 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +27.0 here against +27.4 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.4 consensus.
The line is +27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Central Arkansas Bears at Florida State SeminolesCentral Arkansas at Florida StateCFB 2:00pmCentral Arkansas +46.5should be Central Arkansas +44 · getting 2.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida State by 46.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida State by 45.5 to Florida State by 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Central Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -46.5 -113 | 64 -101 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Central Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -46.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -46 -113 | 63.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -46.5 -108 | 62.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -46.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -46 -113 | 63.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -46 -114 | 63.5 -109 | — | — |
| Bovada | -46.5 -115 | 63.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -46.5 -103 | 62.5 -113 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -46.5 -105 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -46.5 -110 | 62.5 -114 | — | — |
| Fliff | -46.5 -115 | 62.5 -125 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -45.5 -115 | 63.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -46.5 -110 | 63 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -46.5 -113 | 64 -101 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -45.5 -120 | 62.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -46.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Florida State).
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 63.0 here against 63.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Central Arkansas | |
| Sagarin | -38.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Central Arkansas and Florida State on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -46.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 63.0 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Arkansas Bears +46.5 | -110 | -136 | +5.3% |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Florida State Seminoles since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 5.0.
TOM: total 63.0 here against 63.5 consensus.
The line is -46.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western MichiganCFB 2:30pmBoise State -7.5should be Boise State -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 8 to Boise State by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 50 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 50.5 -106 | +247 | -295 |
All 19 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -116 | 50 -115 | +230 | -290 |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -117 | 50.5 -120 | +230 | -305 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +230 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +7 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +240 | -295 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -116 | 50 -115 | +237 | -290 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -117 | 50.5 -120 | +230 | -305 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -117 | 50.5 -120 | +230 | -305 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +240 | -290 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -1295 | +236 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -118 | 50.5 -112 | +230 | -285 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +230 | -285 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 50.5 -120 | +230 | -300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -112 | 50 -114 | +237 | -290 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +240 | -310 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 50.5 -106 | +247 | -295 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +240 here against +273 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +202 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +120 |
| Massey | +8.0 | +293 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +240 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos +7.5 | -116 | -105 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | +230 | +262 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.5 consensus; moneyline +240 here against +273 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Robert Morris Colonials at Buffalo BullsRobert Morris at BuffaloCFB 2:30pmRobert Morris +28.5should be Robert Morris +26 · getting 2.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Buffalo by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -3476 97¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Robert Morris ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -3476 97¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -28.5 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -2733 | +1522 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -3200 | +1400 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -114 | 46.5 -108 | — | +2000 |
| Fliff | -28.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -107 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -29.0, now -28.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Robert Morris).
Kalshi thin: Robert Morris Colonials ML, only $424 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Robert Morris | |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -674 |
| Massey | rates Robert Morris and Buffalo on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -28.5 | -3623 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Robert Morris Colonials +28.5 | -110 | -134 | +4.9% |
| Moneyline | Robert Morris Colonials ML | +2000 | +1988 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Robert Morris Colonials since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 1.9.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 46.4 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
William and Mary Tribe at Duke Blue DevilsWilliam & Mary at DukeCFB 2:30pmWilliam & Mary +43.5should be William & Mary +42.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Duke by 43.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -105 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Duke spread | Total (over) | Duke ML | William & Mary ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 62.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -43 -110 | 62 -113 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -43 -110 | 62 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -43 -112 | 62 -114 | — | — |
| Bovada | -44.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -43.5 -113 | 62.5 -106 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -43.5 -105 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -43.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -44.5 -105 | 62.5 -108 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -43.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Duke side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Duke).
TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| FPI | doesn't rate William & Mary | |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates William & Mary and Duke on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -43.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | William and Mary Tribe +43.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Duke Blue Devils since 09-22 09:07.
TOM: spread -43.5 here against -44.0 consensus.
The line is -43.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs at Marshall Thundering HerdGardner-Webb at MarshallCFB 2:30pmGardner-Webb +25should be Gardner-Webb +21.5 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Marshall by 25.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Marshall by 24 to Marshall by 25. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -105 | 56.5 -109 | -2831 | +1091 |
All 16 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Gardner-Webb ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 55.5 -116 52¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1242 7¢ |
| Bally Bet | -24.5 -110 | 56.5 +100 | — | +1500 |
| BetMGM | -24.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -2500 | +1300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -25 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -24.5 -110 | 56.5 +100 | — | +1500 |
| BetRivers | -24.5 -110 | 56.5 +100 | — | — |
| Bovada | -25.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | — | +1100 |
| Courtside | -24.5 -113 | 55.5 -113 | -1882 | +1177 |
| DraftKings | -24.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -2100 | +1100 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -102 | 56.5 -106 | — | +1400 |
| Fliff | -24.5 -120 | 55.5 -110 | — | +1210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -25.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -2500 | +1100 |
| LowVig.ag | -25 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -25.5 -105 | 56.5 -109 | -2831 | +1091 |
| theScore Bet | -24.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -26.0, now -25.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Gardner-Webb).
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Gardner-Webb | |
| Sagarin | -14.0 | -467 |
| Massey | rates Gardner-Webb and Marshall on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -25.0 | -2403 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs +25.0 | -110 | -139 | +5.7% |
| Moneyline | Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs ML | +1254 | +1191 | priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Gardner-Webb Runnin Bulldogs since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 4.8.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.2 consensus.
The line is -25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at GeorgiaCFB 2:30pmGeorgia -13.5should be Georgia -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 14 to Georgia by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +109 46¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -101 | 44 -107 | -557 | +425 |
All 21 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Oklahoma ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 45.5 +109 46¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -107 | 44 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 43.5 -125 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -14 -107 | 44 -112 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 44 -113 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13 -110 | 44 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -109 | 43.5 -118 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -1103 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | -550 | +410 |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | -550 | +420 |
| Fliff | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -125 | -610 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -700 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -105 | 44 -108 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -626 | +438 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -101 | 44 -107 | -557 | +425 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -115 | 44.5 +100 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.0 | -425 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -307 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -381 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 45.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +13.5 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +400 | +435 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at MichiganCFB 2:30pmMichigan -5.5should be Michigan -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 38 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -108 | 40 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -103 | 40.5 -105 | -216 | +187 |
All 21 books
| Michigan spread | Total (over) | Michigan ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -108 | 40 -110 | -205 | +165 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | -218 67¢ | +181 34¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -110 | 39.5 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -108 | 40.5 -105 | -220 | +180 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -108 | 40 -110 | -205 | +177 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -110 | 39.5 -109 | -215 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 39.5 -110 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 40.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -225 | +185 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -107 | 40 -110 | -218 | +180 |
| Courtside | — | 57.5 -2356 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 40.5 -105 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 40 -110 | -200 | +165 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -108 | 40.5 -106 | -215 | +176 |
| Fliff | -4.5 -125 | 39.5 -120 | -225 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -104 | 40 -108 | -205 | +177 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 40 -110 | -216 | +172 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -103 | 40.5 -105 | -216 | +187 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.
Hard Rock Bet has the total at 38.5 while Pinnacle is at 40.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -186 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -220 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -196 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 40.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +5.5 | -112 | -104 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +181 | +185 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa StateCFB 2:30pmUtah -7.5should be Utah -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -113 | 47 -105 | +266 | -321 |
All 19 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | Utah ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -113 | 47 -109 | +250 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +263 | -325 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -113 | 47 -109 | +250 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -114 | 47 -110 | +250 | -335 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +265 | -325 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -105 | +265 | -330 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -107 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -1963 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -112 | +250 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | +255 | -340 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +240 | -325 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +255 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -113 | 47 -105 | +266 | -321 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -105 | +250 | -300 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 62°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +12.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 4.7 toward Iowa State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.1 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +261 here against +298 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.0 | +307 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +332 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +161 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +195 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +261 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 46.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah Utes -7.5 | -108 | -103 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Utah Utes ML | -325 | -284 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 47.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.7 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 08:31; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.1 consensus; moneyline +261 here against +298 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico StateCFB 2:30pmNew Mexico -11.5should be New Mexico -12 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 11.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 12. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from New Mexico by 13.5 to New Mexico by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48 -103 | +368 | -468 |
All 18 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | New Mexico ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +12 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +12 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +12 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +400 | -590 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -614 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +350 | -455 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +375 | -500 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -115 | 47.5 -120 | +360 | -505 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -111 | 47.5 -108 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +370 | -526 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -102 | 48 -103 | +368 | -468 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State).
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +434 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +772 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +551 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +378 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +376 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -11.5 | -105 | -104 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -450 | -412 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward New Mexico State Aggies since 09-20 10:18; total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 47.5 here against 47.9 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +434 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia SouthernCFB 3:00pmHouston -17should be Houston -17 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 17.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 -103 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Pinnacle | +17 -103 | 56.5 -106 | +643 | -935 |
All 20 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +17 -103 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -116 52¢ | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +685 12¢ | -869 89¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetAnything | +17 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -1000 |
| BetMGM | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | +650 | -900 |
| BetOnline.ag | +17 -103 | 56.5 -110 | +661 | -1000 |
| betPARX | +17.5 -106 | 56 -113 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -109 | +600 | -1115 |
| BetUS | +17 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +600 | -900 |
| Bovada | +17 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 77.5 -2043 | +652 | -898 |
| DraftKings | +17.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | +625 | -950 |
| Fanatics | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +650 | -950 |
| FanDuel | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +640 | -1050 |
| Fliff | +17.5 -120 | 56.5 -115 | +625 | -1050 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +575 | -900 |
| LowVig.ag | +17 -102 | 56.5 -108 | +661 | -1000 |
| MyBookie.ag | +17.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +601 | -1009 |
| Pinnacle | +17 -103 | 56.5 -106 | +643 | -935 |
| theScore Bet | +17.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened +20.0, now +17.0 (the market moved 3.1 toward Georgia Southern).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +16.5 | +589 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +591 |
| Sagarin | +16.0 | +570 |
| Massey | +14.5 | +531 |
| Market (18 books) | +17.0 | +838 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 55.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Southern Eagles +17.0 | -103 | -100 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Southern Eagles ML | +685 | +644 | priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 10:31; total has moved up 1.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling GreenCFB 4:00pmOver 48.5should be 49.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 51.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +659 | -966 |
All 19 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +756 11¢ | -967 90¢ |
| Bally Bet | +18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +800 | -1667 |
| BetAnything | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| BetMGM | +18 -108 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1000 |
| BetOnline.ag | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +686 | -1050 |
| betPARX | +18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +800 | -1667 |
| BetRivers | +18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +800 | -1667 |
| BetUS | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| Bovada | +18 -110 | 49 -105 | +625 | -1000 |
| Courtside | — | 70.5 -2433 | +706 | -987 |
| DraftKings | +18.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | +675 | -1050 |
| FanDuel | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +720 | -1200 |
| Fliff | +18.5 -120 | 48.5 -120 | +700 | -1240 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1100 |
| LowVig.ag | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +686 | -1050 |
| MyBookie.ag | +18.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +680 | -1205 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +659 | -966 |
| theScore Bet | +18.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | +700 | -1200 |
Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +18.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward South Florida). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1187 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1194 |
| Sagarin | +14.5 | +528 |
| Massey | +18.0 | +730 |
| Market (17 books) | +18.5 | +926 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -17.5 | -112 | -118 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -967 | -852 | priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 10:31; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is +18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan StateCFB 4:00pmNebraska -5.5should be Nebraska -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 6.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Nebraska by 6.5 to Nebraska by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | +175 | -225 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 +100 | 49 -108 | +191 | -222 |
All 19 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Nebraska ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | +175 | -225 |
| Bally Bet | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetAnything | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | +189 | -225 |
| betPARX | +6 -112 | 48.5 -109 | +175 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +6 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -105 | 49 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 49 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -109 | 49.5 -106 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | — | 65.5 -925 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 49.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 48.5 -112 | +188 | -230 |
| Fliff | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -120 | +180 | -235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +190 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -101 | 49.5 -106 | +189 | -225 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 49 -110 | +199 | -250 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 +100 | 49 -108 | +191 | -222 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +170 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +183 here against +208 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has Michigan State +6.5 while Pinnacle is at Nebraska by 5.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +10.0 | +338 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +282 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +135 |
| Market (18 books) | +5.5 | +183 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -5.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -225 | -208 | -1.7% |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -112 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.0 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +208 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at VirginiaCFB 5:00pmVirginia -20should be Virginia -20 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 20.5 to Virginia by 20. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -1253 | +803 |
All 18 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Delaware ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 +101 48¢ | -1236 92¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -1430 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -113 | 52.5 -112 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 52 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -180 | -1339 | +897 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -112 | -1450 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1700 | +890 |
| Fliff | -19.5 -120 | 52.5 -120 | -1705 | +845 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| LowVig.ag | -20 -106 | 52.5 -106 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1699 | +880 |
| Pinnacle | -20 -105 | 52.5 -108 | -1253 | +803 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Delaware).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -21.0 | -998 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -555 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1204 |
| Massey | -23.0 | -1304 |
| Market (16 books) | -20.0 | -1165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -20.0 | -110 | -102 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -1400 | -911 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -112 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 13:21; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Incarnate Word Cardinals at Texas State BobcatsIncarnate Word at Texas StateCFB 5:00pmIncarnate Word +30should be Incarnate Word +26.5 · getting 3.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas State by 30.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas State by 30.5 to Texas State by 30. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Incarnate Word ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31 -110 | 66 -110 | — | — |
All 15 books
| Texas State spread | Total (over) | Texas State ML | Incarnate Word ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -30 -110 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -32 -114 | 65.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -30.5 -110 | 66.5 -102 | — | +2200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -30 -110 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -32 -114 | 65.5 +100 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -32 -114 | 65.5 +100 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31 -110 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -30.5 -116 | 65.5 -110 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -118 | 65.5 -112 | -2800 | +1300 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -105 | 65.5 -115 | — | +1600 |
| Fliff | -30.5 -120 | 65.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -30.5 -110 | 65.5 -105 | — | +1400 |
| LowVig.ag | -30 -110 | 66.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -31 -110 | 66 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -29.5 -115 | 65.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Texas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 92°F.
The ratings sit 10 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.9 consensus.
TOM: total 66.5 here against 65.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Incarnate Word | |
| Sagarin | -20.0 | -878 |
| Massey | rates Incarnate Word and Texas State on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -30.0 | -3496 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 66.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Incarnate Word Cardinals +30.5 | -102 | -151 | +9.7% |
| Moneyline | Incarnate Word Cardinals ML | +2200 | +2019 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: total has moved up 5.4.
TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.9 consensus; total 66.5 here against 65.9 consensus.
The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at MiamiCFB 5:30pmUnder 53.5should be 50.9 · getting 2.7 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 41.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 40.5 to Miami by 41. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
All 18 books
| Miami spread | Total (over) | Miami ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -41.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -41.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -41.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetUS | -42 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -41 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | — | 69.5 -871 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -41.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fanatics | -41.5 -115 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -41.5 -114 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fliff | -41.5 -120 | 53.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -41.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -41.5 -111 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -41 -114 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -42.0, now -41.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -40.5 | — |
| FPI | -42.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -40.5 | — |
| Massey | -36.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -41.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 44.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas +41.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.1% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.5.
The line is -41.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at AlabamaCFB 6:00pmAlabama -12.5should be Alabama -12.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 12 to Alabama by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -109 | -509 | +395 |
All 21 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +365 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 +101 48¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -112 | 53.5 -113 | -590 | +400 |
| BetAnything | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -13 -112 | 54.5 -105 | -525 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -515 | +393 |
| betPARX | -12 -112 | 53.5 -113 | -590 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -12 -113 | 53.5 -114 | -590 | +400 |
| BetUS | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -485 | +380 |
| Bovada | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Caesars | -12.5 -109 | 54 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| Courtside | — | 73.5 -586 | -501 | +402 |
| DraftKings | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -108 | -520 | +390 |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -525 | +390 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -530 | +390 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -115 | 53.5 -125 | -555 | +390 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | -550 | +375 |
| LowVig.ag | -12.5 -106 | 54 -108 | -515 | +393 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12.5 -110 | 54 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -107 | 54 -109 | -509 | +395 |
| theScore Bet | -12.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -11.5, now -12.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Alabama).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -404 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -500 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.5 | -493 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +12.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +400 | +415 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-20 13:21; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas StateCFB 6:00pmArkansas State -6.5should be Arkansas State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 4 to Arkansas State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -188 |
| FPI | -3.0 | -138 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -196 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -228 |
| Market (17 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 53.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +6.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +200 | +207 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.9.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mercyhurst Lakers at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMercyhurst at Western KentuckyCFB 6:00pmMercyhurst +40should be Mercyhurst +34.5 · getting 5.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Western Kentucky by 40.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Kentucky by 40.5 to Western Kentucky by 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -105 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40.5 -118 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Mercyhurst ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -40 -105 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 58.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -42 -120 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -40.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -40 -105 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -42 -120 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -42 -120 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| Bovada | -40.5 -120 | 59 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -40.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -40.5 -120 | 58.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -40.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -40 -105 | 58.5 -105 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -40.5 -118 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -41.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Western Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -40.5 (the market moved 3.2 toward Western Kentucky).
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 15 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Mercyhurst | |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Massey | rates Mercyhurst and Western Kentucky on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -40.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mercyhurst Lakers +40.5 | -110 | -197 | +13.9% |
| Moneyline | Mercyhurst Lakers ML | +4405 | +7146 | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.9.
TOM: spread -40.0 here against -40.7 consensus.
The line is -40.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at TulaneCFB 6:00pmSouthern Miss +18should be Southern Miss +17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 18.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18 -103 | 52.5 -110 | -1057 | +706 |
All 19 books
| Tulane spread | Total (over) | Tulane ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -112 51¢ | -967 90¢ | +756 11¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -18 -110 | 52 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -18 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -1000 | +700 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18 -110 | 52.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Courtside | — | 71.5 -1313 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -115 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -1100 | +680 |
| Fliff | -17.5 -120 | 52.5 -115 | -1255 | +705 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1000 | +650 |
| LowVig.ag | -18 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -1099 | +630 |
| Pinnacle | -18 -103 | 52.5 -110 | -1057 | +706 |
| theScore Bet | -17.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened -18.5, now -18.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Southern Miss).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.5 | -566 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -546 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -918 |
| Massey | -20.0 | -887 |
| Market (17 books) | -18.0 | -965 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +18.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +705 | +677 | priced at 12 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC StateCFB 6:30pmNC State -13should be NC State -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 55 -117 | -554 | +423 |
All 17 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | App State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Bally Bet | -14 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -625 | +440 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -108 | 55.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +415 |
| betPARX | -14 -109 | 55.5 -109 | -625 | +440 |
| BetRivers | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -625 | +440 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +425 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -372 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -112 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -108 | 55.5 -110 | -550 | +400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -112 | 55.5 -108 | -550 | +415 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -575 | +410 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -108 | 55 -117 | -554 | +423 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -13.5 | -443 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -950 |
| Massey | -16.0 | -574 |
| Market (16 books) | -13.0 | -526 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack -13.0 | -112 | -103 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | -550 | -444 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington StateCFB 6:30pmArizona -10.5should be Arizona -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arizona by 10 to Arizona by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +305 | -415 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -101 | 48.5 -103 | +365 | -464 |
All 19 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +305 | -415 |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +320 | -420 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +305 | -385 |
| BetMGM | +11 -118 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -425 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -105 | 48 -115 | +327 | -415 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +320 | -420 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | +310 | -435 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 48 -115 | +330 | -415 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 48 -115 | +350 | -480 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -107 | +320 | -420 |
| Courtside | — | 54.5 -242 | +329 | -397 |
| DraftKings | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | +320 | -410 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | +330 | -430 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | +325 | -445 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -101 | 48 -114 | +327 | -415 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 48 -110 | +338 | -463 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 -101 | 48.5 -103 | +365 | -464 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -105 | 48.5 +100 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the Washington State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.5 (the market moved 2.4 toward Washington State).
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +319 here against +407 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +13.0 | +435 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +370 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +231 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +189 |
| Market (18 books) | +10.5 | +319 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -10.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -415 | -368 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-20 13:55.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus; moneyline +319 here against +407 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Houston Baptist Huskies at North Texas Mean GreenHouston Christian at North TexasCFB 6:30pmHouston Christian +39should be Houston Christian +35 · getting 4 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 39.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 39.5 to North Texas by 39. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -114 | 60 -118 | — | — |
All 16 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Houston Christian ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 60.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -40 -121 | 59.5 -106 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| betPARX | -40 -121 | 59.5 -106 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -40 -121 | 59.5 -106 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 -103 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -105 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -112 | — | — |
| Fliff | -39.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -39 -105 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -114 | 60 -118 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -38.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 91°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 60.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.4 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Houston Christian | |
| Sagarin | -30.0 | -3415 |
| Massey | rates Houston Christian and North Texas on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -39.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Baptist Huskies +39.0 | -115 | -159 | +7.9% |
Line move: total has moved up 1.5.
TOM: spread -39.0 here against -38.4 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
The line is -39.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi StateCFB 6:45pmMississippi State -5.5should be Mississippi State -5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Mississippi State by 3.5 to Mississippi State by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6 +102 | 59 +100 | -210 | +182 |
All 21 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Missouri ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| Kalshi | -5.5 -116 52¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | -208 66¢ | +174 35¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetAnything | -4.5 -110 | 58 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -5 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -210 | +175 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 58.5 -115 | -210 | +180 |
| betPARX | -6 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| BetRivers | -6 -109 | 58.5 -112 | -235 | +180 |
| BetUS | -4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -210 | +180 |
| Bovada | -5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -4.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -218 | +182 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -212 | -213 | +184 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -105 | 58.5 -112 | -218 | +180 |
| Fanatics | -5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -110 | 58.5 -118 | -200 | +164 |
| Fliff | -5.5 -110 | 58.5 -120 | -225 | +175 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -220 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 58.5 -114 | -210 | +180 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -212 | +170 |
| Pinnacle | -6 +102 | 59 +100 | -210 | +182 |
| theScore Bet | -4.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Missouri).
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
FanDuel still has Mississippi State -4.5 while Pinnacle is at Mississippi State by 6.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +103 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -198 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -201 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -201 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 55.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.5 | -103 | -103 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +182 | +188 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 58.5 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Missouri Tigers since 09-20 21:56.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL MonroeCFB 7:00pmFlorida Atlantic -11.5should be Florida Atlantic -11 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida Atlantic by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 13.5 to Florida Atlantic by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +330 | -460 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -112 | 58 -111 | +379 | -484 |
All 19 books
| UL Monroe spread | Total (over) | UL Monroe ML | Florida Atlantic ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +330 | -460 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -458 81¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +365 | -475 |
| BetMGM | +12 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -107 | 58 -115 | +358 | -460 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +360 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +360 | -460 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 58 -115 | +360 | -500 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 +112 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -108 | 58.5 -105 | +370 | -485 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -106 | 58.5 -108 | +375 | -500 |
| Fliff | +11.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | +370 | -520 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 58.5 -105 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -103 | 58 -114 | +358 | -460 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 58 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +12.5 -112 | 58 -111 | +379 | -484 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 58.5 -105 | +340 | -450 |
Marked: best for the UL Monroe side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward UL Monroe).
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $165 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +345 here against +443 consensus.
Courtside has the total at 55.5 while Pinnacle is at 58. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +781 |
| FPI | +10.0 | +340 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +262 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (17 books) | +11.5 | +345 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.0 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UL Monroe Warhawks +11.5 | -107 | -102 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | UL Monroe Warhawks ML | +375 | +387 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread +11.5 here against +12.0 consensus; moneyline +345 here against +443 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMUCFB 8:00pmMissouri State +32should be Missouri State +31.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 32.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from SMU by 34.5 to SMU by 32. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -101 | 60 -107 | — | — |
All 20 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -32 -112 | 60 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -32.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -32 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -32 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -32 -112 | 60 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -32 -113 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| BetUS | -32 -110 | 60 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -31.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
| Caesars | -32.5 -107 | 59.5 -117 | — | +2100 |
| Courtside | — | 81.5 -2122 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -31.5 -115 | 59.5 -112 | — | +2500 |
| Fanatics | -32 -110 | 59.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| Fliff | -32.5 -115 | 59.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -32.5 -105 | 60.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -32 -111 | 59.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -32.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | +1500 |
| Pinnacle | -33.5 -101 | 60 -107 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -31.5 -115 | 59.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -33.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Missouri State).
TOM: spread -32.0 here against -32.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -31.5 | -4740 |
| FPI | -28.0 | -2521 |
| Sagarin | -33.5 | — |
| Massey | -27.5 | -2294 |
| Market (19 books) | -32.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.5 | 56.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri State Bears +32.0 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Missouri State Bears ML | +3000 | +4717 | priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 59.5 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Missouri State Bears since 09-20 06:03.
TOM: spread -32.0 here against -32.8 consensus; total 59.5 here against 60.0 consensus.
The line is -32.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEPCFB 8:00pmOregon State -11should be Oregon State -12 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 11, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Oregon State by 10.5 to Oregon State by 11. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +101 | 55.5 -117 | +378 | -483 |
All 19 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Bally Bet | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetAnything | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11 -108 | 56 -109 | +360 | -480 |
| BetRivers | +11 -109 | 56 -110 | +350 | -500 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +360 | -500 |
| Caesars | +11.5 -113 | 56.5 -107 | +350 | -460 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -184 | +350 | -426 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 56.5 -105 | +340 | -440 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | +350 | -465 |
| Fliff | +12.5 -125 | 55.5 -125 | +355 | -495 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | +350 | -475 |
| LowVig.ag | +11 -106 | 56 -108 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -481 |
| Pinnacle | +10.5 +101 | 55.5 -117 | +378 | -483 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +320 | -425 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 77°F.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.
Hard Rock Bet still has UTEP +12.5 while Pinnacle is at Oregon State by 10.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +15.0 | +543 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +472 |
| Sagarin | +8.5 | +300 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +416 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.0 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon State Beavers -11.0 | -110 | -107 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Oregon State Beavers ML | -450 | -409 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.2.
TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.7 consensus; moneyline +355 here against +431 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at WashingtonCFB 10:00pmMinnesota +10.5should be Minnesota +10 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 10. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Washington by 9.5 to Washington by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -113 | 46 -105 | -397 | +320 |
All 20 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +300 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 45.5 -112 | -435 | +330 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -400 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | -410 | +324 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 45.5 -112 | -435 | +330 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 45.5 -113 | -500 | +330 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 46 -105 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -105 | 46.5 -107 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | — | 42.5 +131 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 46.5 -105 | -410 | +320 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | -385 | +300 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -440 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -101 | 46.5 -105 | -410 | +324 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -462 | +328 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -113 | 46 -105 | -397 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 56°F.
Across the books: opened -9.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
Courtside has the total at 42.5 while Pinnacle is at 46. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -308 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -249 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -317 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.5 | -392 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers +10.5 | -112 | -111 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | +320 | +327 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Washington Huskies since 09-20 08:31.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.2 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Stonehill Skyhawks at Ohio BobcatsStonehill at OhioCFB 2:30pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Stonehill ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -32 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -32.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -32 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34 -122 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -32.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | — | +1999 |
| DraftKings | -32.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | — | +1800 |
| FanDuel | -32.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Fliff | -32.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -32.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -32 -105 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -32.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -33.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.
Across the books: opened -37.5, now -32.5 (the market moved 4.8 toward Stonehill).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $499 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -32.0 here against -32.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Stonehill | |
| Massey | rates Stonehill and Ohio on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -32.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Stonehill Skyhawks since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 2.0.
TOM: spread -32.0 here against -32.7 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
North Carolina Central Eagles at East Carolina PiratesNorth Carolina Central at East CarolinaCFB 3:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -105 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -121 53¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -115 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
All 15 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | North Carolina Central ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -36.5 -105 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -121 53¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37.5 -110 | 57.5 -112 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -112 | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -37.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | +1700 |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 58.5 -106 | — | +2400 |
| Fliff | -37.5 -120 | 57.5 -120 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -36.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37.5 -110 | 57 -115 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -115 | 58.5 -108 | — | — |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 74°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -32.0, now -37.5 (the market moved 5.5 toward East Carolina).
TOM: spread -36.5 here against -37.5 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| FPI | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate North Carolina Central | |
| Massey | rates North Carolina Central and East Carolina on different scales | |
| Market (13 books) | -36.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 5.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 5.5.
TOM: spread -36.5 here against -37.5 consensus; total 57.0 here against 58.0 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
LIU Sharks at Florida International PanthersLong Island University at Florida InternationalCFB 5:00pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
All 16 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | Long Island University ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -103 49¢ | — | +3021 3¢ |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -112 | 53.5 -113 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37.5 -115 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -37.5 -106 | 54.5 -103 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -37.5 -108 | 54.5 -105 | — | +1700 |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | — | — |
| Fliff | -37.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -35.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37.5 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37.5 -114 | 54.5 -112 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida International side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 23% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward Florida International).
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate Long Island University | |
| Massey | rates Long Island University and Florida International on different scales | |
| Market (14 books) | -37.5 | -4514 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Florida International Panthers since 09-22 09:07; total has moved up 3.8.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Tomorrow
14 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Patriots, Patriots at JaguarsNew England Patriots at Jacksonville JaguarsPatriots at JaguarsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPatriots +3should be Patriots +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2.5A Little Nasty · PatriotsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Patriots. Market says Jaguars by 3, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 2. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
All 25 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -125 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -104 | 46 -112 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -157 | +132 |
| BetUS | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 45.5 -117 | -154 | +130 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -979 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -102 | 46.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 46 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 45.5 -115 | -154 | +130 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 45.5 -115 | -160 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 46 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +101 | 46 -109 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 46 -110 | -158 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -117 | -149 | +132 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 46.5 +100 | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -120 | -154 | +131 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 45.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Patriots, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Patriots +3.0 · -116 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 85°F.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $43 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
ReBet still has Patriots +3.5 while Pinnacle is at Jaguars by 2.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -128 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +3.0 | -116 | -126 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +130 | +120 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -108 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.7 consensus.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh SteelersBengals at SteelersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmUnder 43weather: 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the totalA Little Nasty · Under, weatherBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 43, for the weather. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. If the market's total hasn't come down for it by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 43 +103 | +157 | -180 |
All 25 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +150 | -180 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -121 53¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 43 -105 | +156 | -178 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 43 -105 | +153 | -178 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -2356 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -112 | 42.5 -112 | +154 | -185 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 43 -102 | +156 | -178 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -186 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 43 +103 | +157 | -180 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 -104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +153 | -181 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -115 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Steelers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Steelers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +109 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +121 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +111 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +157 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | +157 | +152 | +0.8% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5 | -115 | -116 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Cincinnati Bengals since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tennessee Titans at New York GiantsTitans at GiantsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Giants by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Giants by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5 points since it opened, from 43 to 38. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
All 25 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 37.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 38 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -138 | +118 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -113 | 38 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 38 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 38 -105 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -113 | 37.5 -118 | -139 | +118 |
| Courtside | — | 49.5 -1138 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 37.5 -112 | -135 | +114 |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -114 | 38.5 -106 | -138 | +118 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | -140 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -105 | 38 -107 | -138 | +118 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 38 -110 | -142 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -106 | 38.5 +103 | -135 | +120 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 | 38.5 +108 | -127 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 37.5 -120 | -139 | +118 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 38.5 +100 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants -2.5 · -110 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 17 mph wind, 65°F, 94% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.1 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: New York Giants -2.5, only $185 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans), Milo Eifler (LB, Titans).
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.2 consensus.
Tennessee Titans has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.5 | -192 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -197 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -132 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 38.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -138 | -142 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 38.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Tennessee Titans since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 4.4.
TOM: total 38.0 here against 38.2 consensus.
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo BillsChargers at BillsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmBills -7.5should be Bills -7.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Bills is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
All 24 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +265 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 50 -108 | -350 | +275 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -101 | 50 -110 | -340 | +274 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 50 -110 | -375 | +280 |
| BetUS | -7.5 +100 | 50 -110 | -340 | +275 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -114 | 50 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | — | 64.5 -852 | -335 | +282 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 50.5 -102 | -345 | +275 |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 50 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -102 | 50.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -415 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7.5 -105 | 50 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -340 | +274 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -330 | +255 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +103 | 50 -107 | -332 | +274 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 | -317 | +300 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 49.5 -120 | -319 | +260 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -7.5. The market has moved 0.5 toward Bills, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 49.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Trey Pipkins III (OT, Chargers), Kayode Awosika (G, Chargers), Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills) and 3 more.
BetRivers still has Bills -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Bills by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Buffalo Bills has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -8.5 | -348 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -363 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -217 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -362 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -325 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -7.5 | -101 | -102 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -340 | -323 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-20 18:04.
TOM matches the consensus.
Seattle Seahawks at Washington CommandersSeahawks at CommandersNFL tomorrow 12:00pmSeahawks -8should be Seahawks -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 8, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 6 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 6 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
All 25 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Seahawks ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 39.5 -112 51¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +292 | -370 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -105 | 40 -120 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -110 | 40 -115 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +8 -113 | 40.5 -108 | +280 | -375 |
| BetUS | +9 -125 | 40 -115 | +280 | -350 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 40 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -108 | 40 -113 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -2043 | +319 | -383 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 -102 | +310 | -395 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -105 | 40.5 -105 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -375 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -105 | 40.5 -105 | +300 | -435 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -105 | 40 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -105 | 40 -113 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 40 -110 | +295 | -391 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -102 | 40.5 +101 | +297 | -364 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 +100 | 39.5 -108 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -109 | 40.5 -109 | +330 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 62°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 5.2 toward Seahawks, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 39.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders), Sam Cosmi (G, Commanders) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus.
TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.0 | +266 |
| FPI | +9.0 | +258 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +194 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +351 |
| Market (22 books) | +8.0 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 41.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -370 | -332 | -1.9% |
| Total | Over 40.0 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.2 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-19 17:31; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM: spread +8.0 here against +7.6 consensus; total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +342 consensus.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis ColtsTexans at ColtsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmTexans -1.5should be Texans -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 2.5 to Texans by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -103 | +111 | -125 |
All 25 books
| Colts spread | Total (over) | Colts ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -112 51¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | +105 47¢ | -126 54¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -108 | 43 -107 | +107 | -130 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -112 | +104 | -124 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -108 | 43 -107 | +107 | -130 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -108 | 43 -107 | +107 | -130 |
| BetUS | +1 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | +110 | -129 |
| Courtside | — | 62.5 -3371 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -102 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -114 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 42.5 -109 | +104 | -124 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -127 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -110 | 42.5 -103 | +111 | -125 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 | 42.5 +100 | +113 | -117 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +106 | -125 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Colts).
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +1.5, only $184 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Nico Collins (WR, Texans) and 6 more.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | PK | -100 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -101 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +109 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 46.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | +110 | +109 | +0.2% |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts +1.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -112 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-19 12:05; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +1.8 consensus.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ersCardinals at 49ersNFL tomorrow 3:05pm49ers -9should be 49ers -9.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 9, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -373 | +303 |
All 25 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -8 -118 | 48 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -103 | 48 -110 | -400 | +316 |
| betPARX | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -8 -114 | 48 -107 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -9 -105 | 48 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -8 -115 | 47.5 -112 | -410 | +325 |
| Courtside | — | 61.5 -1702 | -426 | +350 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -440 | +340 |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -118 | -450 | +350 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -490 | +330 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -8.5 +101 | 48 -103 | -400 | +316 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -429 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -8.5 +101 | 47.5 -116 | -373 | +303 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 48.5 +104 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -410 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -120 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.
Also out: Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals), Kitan Crawford (S, Cardinals) and 4 more.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus.
TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Polymarket still has 49ers -7.5 while Pinnacle is at 49ers by 8.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -451 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -649 |
| Sagarin | -13.0 | -497 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -356 |
| Market (22 books) | -9.0 | -383 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 47.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -9.0 | -103 | -103 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -400 | -380 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.6 consensus.
Carolina Panthers at Cleveland BrownsPanthers at BrownsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmPanthers -2should be Panthers -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Panthers by 2, the Nasty Number says Panthers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Panthers by 3 to Panthers by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 41 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +115 | -129 |
All 25 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Panthers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +114 45¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +115 | -140 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 42 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | +125 | -150 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +2 -115 | 42 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +122 | -143 |
| Courtside | — | 46.5 -208 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -142 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +116 | -136 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 42 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -103 | 42 -113 | +120 | -140 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +116 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -114 | 42 -110 | +115 | -129 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 | 41.5 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +118 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +1.5, only $40 available; Over 41.5, only $230 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Nick Scott (S, Panthers) and 3 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Polymarket still has Panthers -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Panthers by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +135 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +147 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +115 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers -2.0 | -112 | -107 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | -140 | -127 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
New York Jets at Detroit LionsJets at LionsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmLions -6.5should be Lions -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -110 | -297 | +249 |
All 25 books
| Lions spread | Total (over) | Lions ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -106 | 48 -113 | -335 | +255 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +240 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -116 | 48 -115 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -7 -106 | 48 -113 | -335 | +255 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 48 -113 | -335 | +255 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -115 | -300 | +250 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -107 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | — | 53.5 -212 | -297 | +251 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -305 | +245 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -106 | -310 | +250 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -345 | +245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -112 | 48 -113 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -300 | +234 |
| Pinnacle | -7 +107 | 48 -110 | -297 | +249 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 -104 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -120 | -295 | +240 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Jets). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Mason Taylor (TE, Jets) and 6 more.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Detroit Lions has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -8.0 | -325 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -351 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -337 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Detroit Lions -6.5 | -116 | -115 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | Detroit Lions ML | -300 | -296 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward New York Jets since 09-20 18:04; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Miami DolphinsChiefs at DolphinsNFL tomorrow 12:00pmChiefs -10.5should be Chiefs -10.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Chiefs by 11.5 to Chiefs by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -131 | 45 -110 | +526 | -725 |
All 25 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 -103 49¢ | +530 15¢ | -660 86¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| BetMGM | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -650 |
| BetOnline.ag | +10.5 -113 | 45.5 -105 | +476 | -650 |
| betPARX | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +10.5 -112 | 45 -112 | +500 | -715 |
| BetUS | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +500 | -700 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 45 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| Caesars | +10.5 -109 | 45.5 -108 | +475 | -675 |
| Courtside | — | 29.5 +722 | +487 | -623 |
| DraftKings | +10 -105 | 45.5 -108 | +470 | -650 |
| Fanatics | +10.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | +500 | -700 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -105 | +500 | -700 |
| Fliff | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +505 | -840 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +10.5 -108 | 45.5 -102 | +476 | -650 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | +483 | -728 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -131 | 45 -110 | +526 | -725 |
| Polymarket | +10.5 -113 | 44.5 | +525 | -567 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | +450 | -599 |
| theScore Bet | +10.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | +475 | -750 |
Marked: best for the Dolphins side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.
Across the books: opened +8.5, now +11.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Chiefs). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $134 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Bovada still has Chiefs -10.0 while Pinnacle is at Chiefs by 11.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +9.5 | +374 |
| FPI | +10.5 | +429 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +384 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +193 |
| Market (22 books) | +10.5 | +639 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -10.5 | -107 | -100 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -700 | -432 | priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Kansas City Chiefs since 09-19 12:05; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +10.5 here against +11.0 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at Tampa Bay BuccaneersVikings at BuccaneersNFL tomorrow 3:05pmVikings -1.5should be Vikings -1 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 1. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Vikings by 2.5 to Vikings by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
All 25 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | — | -120 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -107 50¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -112 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -116 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| betPARX | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +1.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +104 | -125 |
| BetUS | PK +100 | 42.5 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | +1 -105 | 42.5 -105 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1.5 -113 | 42.5 -109 | +105 | -124 |
| Courtside | — | 55.5 -843 | +102 | -118 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +106 | -124 |
| Fliff | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -115 | +100 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +1 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +105 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -112 | 42.5 -107 | +100 | -120 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +101 | -123 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -117 | 43 +103 | +105 | -118 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 +100 | +108 | -113 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +102 | -120 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Across the books: opened -1.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Vikings).
Also out: Jordan Mason (RB, Vikings), David Sills V (WR, Buccaneers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings) and 7 more.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +120 |
| Market (22 books) | +1.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5 | -110 | -102 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +104 | +108 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Minnesota Vikings since 09-19 15:06; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +112 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Baltimore Ravens at Dallas CowboysRavens at CowboysNFL tomorrow 3:25pm · neutralRavens -3should be Ravens -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 53 -114 | +156 | -178 |
All 25 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 53.5 -107 50¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +157 | -182 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | +150 | -185 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | +159 | -182 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -117 | 53 -110 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -114 | 53.5 -107 | +149 | -176 |
| Courtside | — | 67.5 -916 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 53.5 -108 | +140 | -166 |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 52.5 -114 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +140 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -115 | 53.5 -107 | +159 | -182 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 +100 | 53.5 -110 | +146 | -180 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -115 | 53 -114 | +156 | -178 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 53.5 +104 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | +149 | -177 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens) and 6 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
MyBookie.ag still has Ravens -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Ravens by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +119 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +188 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +159 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 52.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -3.0 | -123 | -105 | -3.9% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -166 | -155 | -1.6% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Las Vegas Raiders at New Orleans SaintsRaiders at SaintsNFL tomorrow 3:25pmSaints -3should be Saints -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
All 25 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +147 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -175 62¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -118 | 44 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -177 | +155 |
| betPARX | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetRivers | -3 -117 | 43.5 -114 | -177 | +145 |
| BetUS | -3 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -3 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3 -118 | 43.5 -112 | -173 | +147 |
| Courtside | — | 59.5 -1085 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3 -122 | 43.5 -118 | -185 | +154 |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3 -120 | 43.5 -112 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +107 | 43.5 -113 | -177 | +155 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 44 -110 | -173 | +140 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 +106 | 44 +101 | -176 | +154 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 43.5 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -178 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $77 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Barion Brown (WR, Saints), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Kelvin Banks Jr. (OT, Saints) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Caesars still has Saints -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Saints by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.0 | -158 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -177 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -174 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -169 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 40.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -3.0 | -120 | -116 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -177 | -169 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus; total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Los Angeles Rams at Denver BroncosRams at BroncosNFL tomorrow 7:20pmRams -2should be Rams -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 2.5 to Rams by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
All 25 books
| Broncos spread | Total (over) | Broncos ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 44 -108 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -107 | 43.5 -115 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetRivers | +2 -112 | 44 -114 | +107 | -129 |
| BetUS | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2 -105 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -114 | 44 -112 | +113 | -134 |
| Courtside | — | 66.5 -6611 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -102 | +110 | -130 |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -118 | 44.5 -105 | +108 | -126 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 44 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 43.5 -113 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +111 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -110 | 44 -107 | +116 | -131 |
| Polymarket | +1.5 +104 | 43.5 -113 | +117 | -122 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +113 | -133 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -115 | 43.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -1.5, only $77 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams) and 5 more.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
theScore Bet still has Rams -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Rams by 2.5.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +113 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +144 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +114 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -2.0 | -113 | -103 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Rams ML | -126 | -121 | -0.9% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.0.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.3 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.0 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Mon Sep 28
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at BearsNFL Mon 28 Sep, 7:15pmEagles -3.5should be Eagles -4 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -4▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 4. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 44 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | — | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -102 | +192 | -217 |
All 25 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 42 -115 | +151 | -181 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 42.5 -103 49¢ | — | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 41 -115 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +192 | -230 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 41 -113 | +180 | -230 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +195 | -230 |
| Bovada | +4.5 -110 | 41 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -107 | +189 | -230 |
| Courtside | — | 44.5 -221 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 +102 | 41.5 -105 | +195 | -238 |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +185 | -225 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | +194 | -235 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | +190 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -112 | 41 -107 | +192 | -230 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 41 -110 | +184 | -232 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -106 | 41.5 -102 | +192 | -217 |
| Polymarket | — | 41.5 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +189 | -226 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -105 | 41.5 -105 | +195 | -230 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles -3.5 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Bears, now Not Nasty. The line went from +4.5 to +3.5.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $41 available; Chicago Bears +3.5, only $11 available; Philadelphia Eagles -3.5, only $369 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears).
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.7 consensus.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 41.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +158 here against +210 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.5 | +104 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +112 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -118 |
| Massey | +1.5 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 43.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 | -103 | -107 | +1.0% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | -181 | -187 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread +3.5 here against +4.7 consensus; total 42.0 here against 41.4 consensus; moneyline +158 here against +210 consensus.
Thu Oct 1
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pmBrowns +3should be Browns +2 · getting 1 pt at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -105 | 38 -108 | +117 | -141 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +2.5 -108 | 37.5 -113 | +119 | -139 |
| Courtside | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +115 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 +100 | 37.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +114 | -146 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 37.5 -110 | +119 | -140 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Browns +3.0 · -120 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 70°F, 36% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $2 available; Over 37.5, only $73 available; Cleveland Browns ML, only $437 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Gennings Dunker (G, Steelers) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +151 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +113 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +121 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +105 |
| Market (13 books) | +2.5 | +130 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.0 | 36.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -125 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +124 | +121 | +0.6% |
| Total | Under 38.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sun Oct 4
8 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralColts -4.5should be Colts -4.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -115 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -108 | 46 -113 | +180 | -225 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | +4.5 -106 | 46.5 -104 | +182 | -218 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +170 | -205 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -105 | 46.5 -104 | +190 | -230 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -110 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +173 | -226 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -233 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 46.5 -109 | +177 | -222 |
Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Washington Commanders ML, only $386 available; Indianapolis Colts ML, only $288 available; Washington Commanders ML, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Chig Okonkwo (TE, Commanders) and 5 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +139 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +118 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +111 |
| Market (11 books) | +4.5 | +202 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -4.5 | -110 | +101 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Indianapolis Colts ML | -205 | -193 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants -2.5should be Giants -2.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -143 57¢ | — |
All 10 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -143 57¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 43.5 -112 | -141 | +117 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 44 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +118 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -136 | +116 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -142 | +111 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -139 | +113 |
Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals ML, only $213 available; New York Giants ML, only $114 available; Arizona Cardinals ML, only $220 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals), Dadrion Taylor-Demerson (S, Cardinals) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -205 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -298 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (9 books) | -2.5 | -127 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants -2.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | -139 | -125 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmRavens -10.5should be Ravens -10.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -609 85¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 44.5 -110 | -670 | +460 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -114 | -625 | +450 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -118 | -700 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -105 | 45 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -676 | +430 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 44.5 -120 | -649 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $224 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $11 available; Tennessee Titans +10.5, only $20 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ja'Kobi Lane (WR, Ravens), Ronnie Stanley (OT, Ravens), T.J. Tampa (CB, Ravens) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.0 | -440 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -435 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -421 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -437 |
| Market (11 books) | -10.5 | -578 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 46.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -10.5 | -110 | +100 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | -575 | -431 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 44.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -5.5should be Bills -5.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -263 71¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -263 71¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -112 | 49.5 -113 | -265 | +210 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -115 | -260 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -250 | +205 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -115 | 50.5 -104 | -260 | +215 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 +100 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -250 | +189 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -270 | — |
| ReBet | -5.5 -110 | 49.5 -120 | -244 | +194 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $0 available; New England Patriots ML, only $107 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), Dell Pettus (S, Patriots), Quintayvious Hutchins (LB, Patriots) and 2 more.
Buffalo Bills has had 16 days off against 14, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -5.0 | -206 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -224 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -171 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -184 |
| Market (11 books) | -5.5 | -234 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 49.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots +5.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | +210 | +217 | -0.7% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBears -3should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 43 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -182 | +152 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -190 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 43 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -184 | +143 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -203 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +146 |
Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears ML, only $419 available; New York Jets ML, only $8 available; Chicago Bears -3.5, only $324 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Minkah Fitzpatrick (S, Jets) and 1 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -234 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -167 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -360 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -298 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -165 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Chicago Bears -3.0 | -110 | -110 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Chicago Bears ML | -162 | -162 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJaguars +3should be Jaguars +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 50 -114 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -125 | 49.5 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 50.5 -106 | -150 | +126 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -118 | -144 | +122 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -121 | 50.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -157 | +123 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -156 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 50.5 -110 | -154 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $199 available; Jacksonville Jaguars ML, only $477 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Andrei Iosivas (WR, Bengals), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals), Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars) and 6 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -166 |
| FPI | -1.0 | -106 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -123 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (11 books) | -2.5 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0 | -110 | -122 | +2.5% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +140 | +124 | +3.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +3should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKingsWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -155 59¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | -148 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -162 | +136 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -146 | +124 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +100 | 47.5 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -159 | +124 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -150 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -110 | -156 | +127 |
Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys ML, only $160 available; Over 47.5, only $332 available; Under 47.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Ed Ingram (G, Texans) and 7 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -119 |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (11 books) | -3.0 | -140 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | -110 | -120 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +136 | +126 | +1.9% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +3should be Eagles +2 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
All 12 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 -110 | +114 | -143 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | 46 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | — | 45.5 -114 | +122 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -135 |
| FanDuel | +3 -118 | 46.5 -104 | +128 | -152 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +105 | 46 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 46 -110 | +116 | -148 |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | -150 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -120 | +118 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -118 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $434 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $277 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $384 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Ronnie Rivers (RB, Rams), Puka Nacua (WR, Rams), Kamren Kinchens (S, Rams) and 1 more.
Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 12, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +113 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +101 |
| Market (11 books) | +2.5 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 44.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -118 | -128 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +128 | +118 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 46.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games
Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty15-2043%-6.28 units35 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 10 of 18. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.09 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 3-3 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 3-2 | 60.0% | +0.8 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 15-20 | 42.9% | -6.3 u | |
| Not Nasty | 140 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-26 09:39.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 77 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 7.79 | 60 |
| FPI | 9.87 | 116 |
| SP+ | 10.05 | 116 |
| The market | 10.21 | 168 |
| Sagarin | 11.75 | 158 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 62 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 60 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.01 | 62 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.07 | 77 |
The line archive, 168 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 80 times, against it 61, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.53 points better than the close on average over 158 games. The close misses the final by 10.11, the open by 10.38, our raw ratings number by 12.29, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.37, MyBookie.ag 9.85, Kalshi 9.86.
The Cut tracker. 1 finished game opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 16 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is —; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 12.00 | 33 |
| nfelo | 12.34 | 33 |
| Sagarin | 12.45 | 33 |
| FPI | 13.79 | 18 |
| Massey | 13.93 | 16 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 16 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 16 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.09 | 16 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 16 |
The line archive, 33 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 19 times, against it 9, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 28 games. The close misses the final by 11.92, the open by 12.17, our raw ratings number by 12.44, Pinnacle's close by 11.94. Sharpest closing books: Kalshi 11.86, BetRivers 11.88, LowVig.ag 11.88.
The head start. 85 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 28 times, against it 22, average 0.21 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 40.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 0% | 180 | 10.57 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 5% | 180 | 10.48 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 15% | 180 | 10.30 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| ratings 45% | 180 | 9.79 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 180 | 10.04 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 180 | 10.03 | 10.57 | 1-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 85 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 28 of 85 moved our way, average +0.2 points, and the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 40. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UConn at Miami (OH) | UConn +5.5 | 5.5 | 3.5 | +2.0 | same side |
| UNLV at Akron | Akron +13.7 | 13.7 | 13.5 | +0.2 | no call |
| Utah at Iowa State | Iowa State +12.2 | 12.2 | 10 | +2.2 | no call |
| Vanderbilt at Auburn | Under | 52.7 | 52.8 | -0.1 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at Boston College | Boston College +14 | 14 | 14 | +0.0 | no call |
| Wake Forest at Louisville | Wake Forest Demon +13.5 | 13.5 | 13 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wisconsin at Penn State | Penn State Nittany -10.6 | -10.6 | -9.6 | -1.0 | no call |
| Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -9 | -9 | -9 | +0.0 | no call |
| Baltimore Ravens at Dallas Cowboys | Dallas +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | same side |
| Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanders | Washington +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears | Chicago +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 119 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 67 | 14.6 | 20-30 (40%) | 14-16 (47%) |
| Massey | 70 | 13.6 | 14-19 (42%) | 5-13 (28%) |
| The blend | 72 | 13.8 | 16-26 (38%) | 9-13 (41%) |
NFL, 23 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 8.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 19 | 9.9 | 7-6 (54%) | 2-2 (50%) |
| FPI | 17 | 9.9 | 5-1 (83%) | 5-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 19 | 8.9 | 6-1 (86%) | 3-0 (100%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 9 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 76 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 6 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.
Since 11:48am
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 5.2Seattle Seahawks at Washington Commanderstoward Seattle Seahawkswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 20%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 93 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 76 | 9.09 |
| SP+ | 116 | 10.05 |
| FPI | 134 | 10.40 |
| The market | 201 | 10.50 |
| Sagarin | 191 | 11.87 |
| nfelo | 33 | 12.34 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 89-97 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 844164 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.26 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 131 | 1.76 |
| DraftKings | 304 | 1.50 |
| FanDuel | 327 | 1.49 |
| BetOnline.ag | 286 | 1.46 |
| LowVig.ag | 278 | 1.46 |
| BetRivers | 316 | 1.41 |
| MyBookie.ag | 218 | 1.36 |
| ReBet | 102 | 1.36 |
| betPARX | 108 | 1.34 |
| Bally Bet | 108 | 1.33 |
| BetUS | 218 | 1.23 |
| Caesars | 247 | 1.19 |
| BetMGM | 281 | 1.18 |
| Courtside | 66 | 1.17 |
| theScore Bet | 105 | 1.17 |
| Fanatics | 253 | 1.15 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 107 | 1.14 |
| Bovada | 286 | 1.12 |
| TOM | 275 | 1.08 |
| Pinnacle | 285 | 1.02 |
| BetAnything | 93 | 0.92 |
| Fliff | 103 | 0.62 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 31 | 0.58 |
| Polymarket | 23 | 0.52 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 31 | 0.52 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 6 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin updated 6 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated 4 days ago
- nfelo updated 3 days ago