Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa +3.5-110 at TOM+5.0%Fri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Tue 11:53am at +140. Now Iowa to win +145. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.better now, 1 pt+2.5 open Sunnow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5San Diego State at Oregon StateSan Diego State +14.5-105 at FanDuel+3.2%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Wed 7:49am. Still on the board: FanDuel at -105. All 3 ratings (FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+14.5 open Sunnow +14.5Nasty Number +13New Mexico State at Florida International▲Moved our way · 1.5 ptsNew Mexico State +7 -112 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Wed 3:29pmStill a playWed 6:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. New Mexico State +7 -112 at Caesars, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: Caesars at -112.UCF at Oklahoma State▼UCF +8.5 -110 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amChanged sinceSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Don't add this. The market has moved 2.1 points away from UCF since Tuesday, and the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market, past the 8 the Nasty Sauce trusts. A gap that big usually means news the Four don't have, so we wouldn't make this call today. It stays on the record at +8.5 -110 and grades there.Texas A&M at Missouri▲Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOMNasty Pick · called Wed 3:29pmStill a playSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel, 2 cents worse than the +3.5 -108 we posted on Wednesday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted.North Dakota State at UNLVUNLV +3 +100 at TOMNasty Pick · called Tue 11:53amStill a playSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.
Buck's Take
6 Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Iowa +3.5, San Diego State +14.5, UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics, New Mexico State +7 -112 at Caesars, UNLV +3 +100 at TOM and Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
UAB at Memphis, Memphis -14. Every system has Memphis by 19.5; the market has Memphis by 14. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -13.5.
Broncos at Chargers, Chargers +3.5. Every system has Broncos by 0.5; the market has Broncos by 3.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is NC State +3.5 (Wake Forest at NC State) at 3.1% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one.
Since the last build, New Mexico State at Florida International climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Texas A&M at Missouri climbed to Damn Near Nasty; Texans at Titans slipped to A Little Nasty.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Iowa at Washington, Iowa +3.5. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Iowa at WashingtonMoved our way · 1 ptIowa to win +140 at DraftKingsNasty Dog · called Tue 11:53amStill a playFri 8:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Iowa to win · +145 at Fanatics, 5 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday.Damn Near Nasty
2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
2 more later this week
NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Chargers): DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +3.5 at -118 (1.6%) · Caesars, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -120 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.2%).Becomes a Nasty Pick at -12.5 for -115 at Fanatics · 1.5 points away
Where, best first (Memphis): Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (2.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -14 at -108 (1.7%) · FanDuel -14.5 at +100 (1.5%) · TOM -14 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 49¢ (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (South Florida): FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (2.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +7 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (2.6%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 54¢ (2.2%) · Caesars +7 at -113 (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Kennesaw State): DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (1.7%) · BetMGM +3 at -110 (1.2%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.1%) · Caesars +3 at -112 (0.7%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +102 (0.3%).Points or price: +3 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +2.5 (the games that land on 3); -110 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in). The price wins.8 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Titans): DraftKings or BetMGM +7.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars +7.5 at -112 (1.2%) · TOM +7.5 at -113 (1.0%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +7.5 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (3.5%) · TOM +3.5 at -117 (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): TOM -2 at -112 (2.4%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -2.5 at -108 (2.1%) · Fanatics -2.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 51¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (California): TOM +9.5 at +102 (2.1%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +10 at -110 (1.2%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi +10.5 at 54¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.6%).Points or price: +10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +9.5 (the games that land on 10); -110 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than +102. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Western Michigan): BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.7%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -114 (1.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -13.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Georgia Tech): FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (0.7%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings +6.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · TOM +6.5 at -107 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (South Carolina): Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (0.7%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (0.7%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · Fanatics +11.5 at -110 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Bowling Green): TOM -7 at -120 (0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -7.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 51¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.2%) · Fanatics -8 at -110 (-1.6%).Totals That Are Just Flat Nasty
No totals posted. One goes up when a total opens 3 or more points off the pace number, most of them on Sunday.
Moved closer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Tue 6 Oct, 11:53am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UAB at Memphis Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The price from -112 to -110. - Sacramento State at Bowling Green Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Virginia Tech at California Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +9.0 to +9.5; the price from -110 to +102; the market drifted 0.9 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close. - Sam Houston at Liberty tomorrow 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Sam Houston +14.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -13.5 to +13.5; the price from -108 to -105. - Boise State at Fresno State Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Fresno State +7.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -6.0 to +6.5; the price from -116 to -109. - Bills at Rams Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Bills +4.0: 1.0 points away, was out of reach.The price from -112 to -109.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
2 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida InternationalCFB 6:30pmNew Mexico State +7 -112 at CaesarsMoved our way · 1.5 ptsBet it · now New Mexico State +7 · -112 at Caesars▲Nasty Pick · called at +7 -112Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at New Mexico State +7 -112 at Caesars. Bet it. New Mexico State +7 -112 at Caesars, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: Caesars at -112. Market says Florida International by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 5.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 46.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | -238 | +204 |
All 22 books
| Florida International spread | Total (over) | Florida International ML | New Mexico State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -235 | +185 |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -113 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -245 | +195 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -7 -108 | 45.5 -109 | -245 | +200 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -239 | +205 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -112 | -245 | +200 |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -112 | 45.5 -110 | -255 | +205 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -120 | -255 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -112 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -250 | +198 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -106 | 45.5 -109 | -238 | +204 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -104 | 45.5 | -233 | — |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 46 -114 | -250 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -260 | +215 |
Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F, 48% chance of rain.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · New Mexico State, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from New Mexico State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +7.5.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $211 available; New Mexico State Aggies ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -119 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (20 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico State Aggies +7.0 | -112 | -125 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico State Aggies ML | +205 | +195 | +1.1% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -107 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Florida International Panthers since 10-02 16:15; total has moved down 5.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since New Mexico State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB 6:00pmKennesaw State +2.5should be Kennesaw State +2.5 at DraftKings Predictions · was +2.5A Little Nasty · Kennesaw StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Kennesaw State. Market says Jacksonville State by 3, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 2.5. At +108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +125 | -141 |
All 23 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 48.5 -112 51¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +120 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +3 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +125 | -150 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -114 | 48.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| betPARX | +3 -114 | 48.5 -113 | +120 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +120 | -150 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 49 -110 | +129 | -150 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 49 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -112 | 48.5 -120 | +126 | -150 |
| Courtside | +3 -113 | 48.5 -110 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +3 -115 | 48.5 -112 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 46¢ +108 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +102 | 48.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +130 | -150 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 49 -110 | +126 | -155 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 48.5 -114 | +125 | -141 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +113 | 49.5 +108 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +3 -116 | 49 -111 | +126 | -155 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 +105 | 48.5 -115 | +130 | -150 |
Marked: best for Kennesaw State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +2.5 · 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 75°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -108 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -169 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +142 |
| Market (19 books) | +3.0 | +131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +2.5 | +108 | +101 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +125 | +122 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Tomorrow
5 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · South Florida, South Florida at UTSASouth Florida Bulls at UTSA RoadrunnersSouth Florida at UTSACFB tomorrow 6:30pmSouth Florida +7.5should be South Florida +6 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty · South FloridaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Florida. Market says UTSA by 7, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 6. At -122 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -106 | 50 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 50.5 -102 | -273 | +225 |
All 23 books
| UTSA spread | Total (over) | UTSA ML | South Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -106 | 50 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 +105 47¢ | 49.5 -121 53¢ | -263 71¢ | +217 30¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -270 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -7 -108 | 49.5 -112 | -275 | +220 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -106 | 50 -110 | -265 | +219 |
| betPARX | -7 -115 | 49.5 -113 | -278 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7 -117 | 49.5 -114 | -278 | +215 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 50 -110 | -265 | +223 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -275 | +225 |
| Caesars | -7 -107 | 50 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| Courtside | -7 -103 | 50.5 -109 | -263 | +225 |
| DraftKings | -7 -105 | 49.5 -115 | -270 | +220 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -280 | +225 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -106 | -280 | +225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -106 | 50 -108 | -265 | +219 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 50 -110 | -285 | +224 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -106 | 50.5 -102 | -273 | +225 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -117 | 49.5 | -257 | — |
| ReBet | -7.5 -103 | 49.5 -119 | -285 | +224 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 50.5 -105 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Florida +7.5 · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls +6.5, only $8 available; Over 49.5, only $99 available; South Florida Bulls ML, only $8 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA's last game | |
| FPI | -3.0 | -142 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -119 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -254 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls +7.5 | -122 | -137 | +2.9% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | +225 | +200 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Florida and UTSA played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Missouri State Bears at Western Kentucky HilltoppersMissouri State at Western KentuckyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmWestern Kentucky to winour data says 58 in 100 · -130Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Kentucky by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Western Kentucky by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Western Kentucky is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 55.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 | -126 54¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -105 | 56.5 -106 | -128 | +111 |
All 23 books
| Western Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Western Kentucky ML | Missouri State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 56.5 | -126 54¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -112 | 56.5 -107 | -122 | +100 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -111 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -112 | 56.5 -107 | -122 | +100 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -108 | -136 | +108 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -134 | +113 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -127 | +112 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 56.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -108 | 56.5 -114 | -130 | +108 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -107 | 56.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -105 | 56.5 -106 | -128 | +111 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 +100 | 55.5 | -122 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 56.5 -114 | -136 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 +100 | 56.5 -115 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for Western Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Kentucky to win · -130 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened PK, now -2.5. The market has moved 2.7 toward Western Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Over 56.5, only $339 available; Missouri State Bears +2.5, only $89 available; Over 55.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -172 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -183 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -124 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 57.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | -130 | -138 | +1.4% |
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers -2.5 | -111 | -114 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Western Kentucky Hilltoppers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Western Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sam Houston State Bearkats at Liberty FlamesSam Houston at LibertyCFB tomorrow 6:00pmLiberty -13.5should be Liberty -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -565 | +413 |
All 23 books
| Liberty spread | Total (over) | Liberty ML | Sam Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -113 | 51.5 -115 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 52.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -13 -113 | 51.5 -115 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -13 -114 | 51.5 -117 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -585 | +410 |
| Caesars | -13.5 -114 | 52.5 -112 | -590 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | -530 | +423 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 52.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -599 | +420 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -109 | 52.5 -107 | -565 | +413 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -117 | -488 | +456 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 52.5 -114 | -599 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 52.5 -105 | -600 | +400 |
Marked: best for the Liberty side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 52.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Liberty's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -423 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -450 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -361 |
| Market (19 books) | -13.5 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 50.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Sam Houston State Bearkats +13.5 | -105 | -101 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | Sam Houston State Bearkats ML | +405 | +438 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Liberty played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
South Alabama Jaguars at Arkansas State Red WolvesSouth Alabama at Arkansas StateCFB tomorrow 6:30pmArkansas State -1.5should be Arkansas State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Arkansas State by 1 to Arkansas State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 60 -107 | -118 | +103 |
All 23 books
| Arkansas State spread | Total (over) | Arkansas State ML | South Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -112 51¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -121 53¢ | +105 47¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -114 | -120 | -103 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 59.5 -118 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -114 | -120 | -103 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -112 | 58.5 -115 | -121 | -103 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -106 | 60.5 -105 | -117 | -102 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -108 | 59.5 -119 | -118 | +102 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -108 | 60.5 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -112 | 59.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 60.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 60 -110 | -122 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -112 | 60 -107 | -118 | +103 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 | 59.5 -108 | -117 | — |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 59.5 -116 | -121 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 59.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves -1.5, only $111 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -117 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -178 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +106 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 62.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars +1.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | +105 | +110 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 60.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 60.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Alabama and Arkansas State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL tomorrow 7:15pmCowboys -7.5should be Cowboys -8 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 8. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Cowboys by 10 to Cowboys by 7.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -8 -102 | 47.5 -115 | -445 | +352 |
All 26 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetAnything | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -8.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | -450 | +350 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +344 |
| betPARX | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetRivers | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -500 | +380 |
| BetUS | -9 +105 | 47.5 -110 | -440 | +345 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -460 | +340 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -121 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +360 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -112 | 47.5 -113 | -454 | +371 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -470 | +360 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -8.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 48 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -8.5 -112 | 47.5 -110 | -480 | +370 |
| Fliff | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -550 | +365 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -475 | +350 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -8 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -8 -101 | 47.5 -107 | -440 | +344 |
| MyBookie.ag | -8 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -461 | +340 |
| Pinnacle | -8 -102 | 47.5 -115 | -445 | +352 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 -108 | 47.5 -104 | -426 | +400 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| theScore Bet | -8 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Buccaneers).
QB out: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Drew Shelton (OT, Cowboys), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys) and 5 more.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -366 |
| FPI | -14.5 | -460 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -200 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -181 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -421 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -7.5 | -115 | -107 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | -440 | -336 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Tampa Bay Buccaneers since 10-01 08:04.
TOM: spread -7.5 here against -8.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Fri Oct 9
5 gamesBest: Iowa +3.5, NastiestIowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at WashingtonCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmIowa +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Iowa +2.5 · getting 1 pt · -110 at TOM · was +1NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Posted Tuesday at Iowa to win +140 at DraftKings. Bet it. Iowa to win · +145 at Fanatics, 5 cents better than the +140 we posted on Tuesday. Market says Washington by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Washington by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -113 | -173 | +149 |
All 24 books
| Washington spread | Total (over) | Washington ML | Iowa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +101 48¢ | 41.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41 -115 | -165 | +145 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -108 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -109 | -175 | +138 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 41 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 42 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -112 | -164 | +138 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -108 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 41.5 -115 | -162 | +134 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -125 | 41 -114 | -165 | +145 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -186 | +150 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 41.5 -113 | -173 | +149 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | — | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 41.5 -114 | -190 | +147 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 58°F, 41% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.4 away from Iowa, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, only $313 available; Over 41.5, only $319 available; Under 41.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +182 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.5 | -158 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 41.0 | 39.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5 | -110 | -135 | +5.0% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +145 | +119 | +4.8% |
| Total | Under 41.0 | -105 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Washington Huskies since 10-01 20:04.
TOM: total 41.0 here against 41.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa and Washington played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wyoming Cowboys at San Jose State SpartansWyoming at San José StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmSan José State -6.5should be San José State -7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was -6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says San José State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says San José State by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -103 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 43.5 -106 | -228 | +192 |
All 23 books
| San José State spread | Total (over) | San José State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -103 | 43 -110 | -225 | +175 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -107 50¢ | -229 68¢ | +189 33¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -104 | -250 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| BetMGM | -6 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -225 | +185 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -103 | 43 -110 | -225 | +189 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 43.5 -104 | -250 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -118 | 42.5 -120 | -250 | +200 |
| BetUS | -6 -110 | 43 -110 | -225 | +190 |
| Bovada | -6 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -230 | +190 |
| Caesars | -6 -109 | 43.5 -106 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6 -108 | 43.5 -106 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -235 | +190 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | -230 | +188 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -115 | 42.5 -120 | -250 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 +101 | 43 -108 | -225 | +189 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -255 | +200 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 43.5 -106 | -228 | +192 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 -104 | — | +194 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | -265 | +199 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -215 | +180 |
Marked: best for San José State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San José State -6.5 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 78°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $129 available; San Jose State Spartans ML, only $221 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -290 |
| Sagarin | -8.5 | -299 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -188 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -215 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 39.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Jose State Spartans -6.5 | -103 | -110 | +1.6% |
| Moneyline | San Jose State Spartans ML | -225 | -235 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 43.0 here against 43.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wyoming and San José State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Florida State Seminoles at Louisville CardinalsFlorida State at LouisvilleCFB Fri 9 Oct, 6:00pmLouisville -3.5should be Louisville -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 5.5 to Louisville by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -102 | -175 | +150 |
All 23 books
| Louisville spread | Total (over) | Louisville ML | Florida State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 59.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -110 | 59 -112 | -180 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -112 | 59 -113 | -180 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 59 -115 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -112 | 59 -109 | -190 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -103 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -188 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 59.5 -105 | -180 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -106 | 59 -114 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 59 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -101 | 59.5 -102 | -175 | +150 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 59.5 +100 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 59.5 -109 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened -7.5, now -4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward Florida State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $180 available; Under 59.5, only $17 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $374 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -104 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -189 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 62.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -170 | -168 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 59.0 | -115 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward Florida State Seminoles since 10-03 22:34; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 59.0 here against 59.3 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Florida State and Louisville played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Washington State Cougars at Utah State AggiesWashington State at Utah StateCFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pmWashington State +5.5should be Washington State +4.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 4.5, but the market has moved 3.5 points away from Washington State since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Utah State by 4.5 to Utah State by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | — | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 43.5 -116 | -209 | +177 |
All 23 books
| Utah State spread | Total (over) | Utah State ML | Washington State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +165 |
| Kalshi | — | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -208 66¢ | +166 36¢ |
| Bally Bet | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetAnything | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -200 | +170 |
| BetMGM | -5.5 -110 | 44.5 -102 | -210 | +170 |
| BetOnline.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +170 |
| betPARX | -5.5 -114 | 43.5 -114 | -210 | +170 |
| BetRivers | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -215 | +170 |
| BetUS | -5.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -195 | +167 |
| Bovada | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -210 | +175 |
| Caesars | -5.5 -109 | 44 -110 | -197 | +165 |
| Courtside | -5.5 -108 | 43.5 -121 | -200 | +174 |
| DraftKings | -5.5 -108 | 44.5 -102 | -205 | +170 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -215 | +175 |
| FanDuel | -5.5 -112 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +172 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -5.5 -115 | 43.5 -115 | -210 | +170 |
| LowVig.ag | -5.5 -106 | 44 -114 | -195 | +170 |
| MyBookie.ag | -5.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -226 | +179 |
| Pinnacle | -5.5 -106 | 43.5 -116 | -209 | +177 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 | — | +178 |
| ReBet | -4.5 -116 | 43.5 -119 | -232 | +177 |
| theScore Bet | -5.5 -110 | 43.5 -115 | -200 | +170 |
Marked: best for the Utah State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -5.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward Utah State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Utah State Aggies -5.5, only $147 available; Washington State Cougars +5.5, only $403 available; Under 44.5, only $310 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State's last game | |
| FPI | -4.5 | -178 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -130 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (19 books) | -5.5 | -187 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.0 | 42.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington State Cougars +5.5 | -110 | -106 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Washington State Cougars ML | +175 | +181 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 44.0 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Utah State Aggies since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 44.0 here against 43.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Washington State and Utah State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYUCFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pmBYU -10should be BYU -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 10, the Nasty Number says BYU by 10.5, but the market has moved 3.4 points away from BYU since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 10.5 to BYU by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +101 | 46 -109 | -404 | +315 |
All 24 books
| BYU spread | Total (over) | BYU ML | Iowa State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +310 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| BetMGM | -10 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -425 | +320 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -420 | +330 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -455 | +340 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -112 | 46.5 -112 | -500 | +340 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -410 | +325 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -415 | +310 |
| Caesars | -10 -112 | 46 -112 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 46.5 -106 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 46.5 -108 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 46.5 -108 | -400 | +310 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -435 | +320 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | -450 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -109 | 46.5 -103 | -420 | +330 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 46 -110 | -441 | +320 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 +101 | 46 -109 | -404 | +315 |
| Polymarket | — | 45.5 | -376 | +355 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -111 | 45.5 -116 | -469 | +330 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -125 | 46.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -14.0, now -10.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward Iowa State).
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $38 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU's last game | |
| FPI | -12.5 | -422 |
| Sagarin | -11.5 | -390 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -175 |
| Market (20 books) | -10.0 | -402 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | BYU Cougars -10.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.2% |
| Moneyline | BYU Cougars ML | -420 | -369 | priced at 81 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 46.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 10-01 21:16; total has moved down 4.4.
TOM: spread -10.0 here against -10.3 consensus; total 46.5 here against 46.1 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Iowa State and BYU played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sat Oct 10
46 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.UCF Knights at Oklahoma State CowboysUCF at Oklahoma StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amUCF +8.5 -110 at FanaticsDon't add · now UCF +10.5 · -102 at TOM▼Nasty Pick · called at +8.5 -110Don't addBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UCF +8.5 -110 at Fanatics. Don't add this. The market has moved 2.1 points away from UCF since Tuesday, and the raw ratings sit 8 points off the market, past the 8 the Nasty Sauce trusts. A gap that big usually means news the Four don't have, so we wouldn't make this call today. It stays on the record at +8.5 -110 and grades there. Market says Oklahoma State by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Oklahoma State by 7.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -116 | -441 | +338 |
All 23 books
| Oklahoma State spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma State ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 | -430 80¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -11 -110 | 53 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| BetMGM | -11 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +333 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -118 | 53 -115 | -440 | +344 |
| betPARX | -10 -113 | 53.5 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -10 -114 | 53.5 -110 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -11 -110 | 53 -115 | -440 | +345 |
| Bovada | -11 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +335 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 23¢ +300 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -410 | +315 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -115 | 53.5 -120 | -450 | +325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 53.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -114 | 53 -114 | -440 | +344 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -481 | +350 |
| Pinnacle | -10.5 -110 | 53 -116 | -441 | +338 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -104 | 53.5 -104 | — | +355 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 53.5 -114 | -500 | +340 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 53.5 +100 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UCF, now Not Nasty. The line went from -9.0 to -10.5.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: UCF Knights +10.5, only $24 available; Over 52.5, only $57 available; Oklahoma State Cowboys ML, only $33 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 8 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UCF's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -192 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.5 | -421 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +10.5 | -102 | -142 | +8.1% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +350 | +255 | priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -105 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Oklahoma State Cowboys since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UCF played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
San Diego State Aztecs at Oregon State BeaversSan Diego State at Oregon StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 5:00pmSan Diego State +14.5should be San Diego State +13 · getting 1.5 pts · -105 at FanDuelNasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +14.5 -105 at FanDuel, the number we posted on Wednesday, is still on the board: FanDuel at -105. Market says Oregon State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 13.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -673 | +474 |
All 22 books
| Oregon State spread | Total (over) | Oregon State ML | San Diego State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -14.5 | 53.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +490 16¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +488 |
| betPARX | -15 -112 | 53.5 -109 | -835 | +540 |
| BetRivers | -15 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -835 | +540 |
| BetUS | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -670 | +485 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +460 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -108 | 53.5 -108 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -780 | +530 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -850 | +550 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 53.5 -103 | -670 | +488 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -676 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -107 | 54 -102 | -673 | +474 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 +100 | -614 | +525 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 53.5 -114 | -699 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -110 | 53.5 -105 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.
Kalshi thin: Oregon State Beavers -14.5, only $54 available; Under 53.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -344 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -363 |
| Massey | -8.5 | -303 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.5 | -620 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 47.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +14.5 | -105 | -119 | +3.2% |
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +500 | +436 | priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -115 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since San Diego State and Oregon State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Dakota State Bison at UNLV RebelsNorth Dakota State at UNLVCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUNLV +3 +100 at TOMBet it · now UNLV +3 · -105 at TOMNasty Pick · called at +3 +100Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Tuesday at UNLV +3 +100 at TOM. Bet it. Still UNLV +3 · -105 at TOM, the number we posted on Tuesday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says North Dakota State by 3, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 2.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UNLV is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +139 | -161 |
All 22 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | North Dakota State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +133 | -158 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 48 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 48 -107 | +138 | -158 |
| betPARX | +3 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -159 |
| BetRivers | +3 -107 | 47.5 -112 | +128 | -162 |
| BetUS | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 48 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3 +100 | 47.5 -113 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -102 | 47.5 -115 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 48 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +128 | -154 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +103 | 48 -105 | +138 | -158 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +134 | -165 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 48.5 -101 | +139 | -161 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 47.5 -113 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -128 | 47.5 -116 | +131 | -168 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for UNLV, higher payout on each moneyline.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward UNLV, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +3.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels +3.5, only $40 available; Under 48.5, only $18 available; North Dakota State Bison -3.5, only $483 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -104 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UNLV Rebels +3.0 | -105 | -117 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | UNLV Rebels ML | +133 | +120 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -107 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward UNLV Rebels since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 1.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Dakota State and UNLV played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at MissouriCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTexas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOMBet it · now Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel▲Nasty Pick · called at +3.5 -108Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Wednesday at Texas A&M +3.5 -108 at TOM. Bet it. Texas A&M +3.5 · -110 at FanDuel, 2 cents worse than the +3.5 -108 we posted on Wednesday. Worth about the same as the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Missouri by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri by 3.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 48 -112 | -168 | +145 |
All 23 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Texas A&M ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +138 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -182 63¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -170 | +150 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -168 | +148 |
| betPARX | -3 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -175 | +143 |
| BetRivers | -3 -120 | 48.5 -109 | -175 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -103 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -175 | +145 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -166 | +138 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -175 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -170 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 48 -108 | -168 | +148 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -185 | +149 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 48 -112 | -168 | +145 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -117 | -163 | — |
| ReBet | -3.5 -111 | 48.5 -109 | -189 | +146 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 79°F.
Moved up since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Texas A&M, now Damn Near Nasty.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It's a play at +4.0. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $5 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri's last game | |
| FPI | PK | +100 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -161 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 49.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas A&M Aggies +3.5 | -110 | -122 | +2.6% |
| Moneyline | Texas A&M Aggies ML | +145 | +131 | +2.4% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Missouri Tigers since 10-02 12:00; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Texas A&M and Missouri played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UAB Blazers at Memphis TigersUAB at MemphisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMemphis -14should be Memphis -15.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Memphis -14.0: all 3 ratings 4.9 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Memphis's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 5.5 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 53 -113 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 54 -105 | -594 | +430 |
All 22 books
| Memphis spread | Total (over) | Memphis ML | UAB ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -110 | 53 -113 | -600 | +430 |
| Kalshi | -14.5 -103 49¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -110 | 53 -113 | -600 | +446 |
| betPARX | -14 -107 | 52.5 -112 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 52.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 53 -115 | -600 | +450 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 53.5 -115 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 +100 | 52.5 -115 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -106 | 53 -112 | -600 | +446 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -673 | +455 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -101 | 54 -105 | -594 | +430 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 | — | +488 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 53.5 -114 | -625 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis -14.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
A play at -13.5 or better.
Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers +14.5, only $266 available; Under 53.5, only $15 available; Over 53.5, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis's last game | |
| FPI | -19.5 | -871 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -852 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -699 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -574 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 56.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Memphis Tigers -14.0 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Memphis Tigers ML | -600 | -564 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -113 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 5.9.
TOM: total 53.0 here against 53.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UAB and Memphis played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons at NC State WolfpackWake Forest at NC StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amNC State +3.5should be NC State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +2A Little Nasty · NC StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, NC State. Market says Wake Forest by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 2.5. At -117 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but NC State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 60. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 59.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 60 -103 | +150 | -175 |
All 22 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Wake Forest ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +135 | -165 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 | 59.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +140 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -117 | 60 -105 | +145 | -165 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -109 | 59.5 -109 | +143 | -177 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +143 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 60 -105 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -108 | +148 | -171 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 59.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -110 | 60 -103 | +145 | -165 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +137 | -168 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -109 | 60 -103 | +150 | -175 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 59.5 +100 | +156 | -163 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -119 | 59.5 -114 | +134 | -172 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
Marked: best for NC State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is NC State +3.5 · -117 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 72°F.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.3 away from NC State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: NC State Wolfpack +3.5, only $23 available; Over 59.5, only $362 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons -3.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +161 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State's last game | |
| FPI | +5.5 | +194 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -112 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.0 | 60.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | NC State Wolfpack ML | +146 | +121 | +4.5% |
| Spread | NC State Wolfpack +3.5 | -117 | -133 | +3.1% |
| Total | Under 60.0 | -115 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.7.
TOM: moneyline +141 here against +161 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Wake Forest and NC State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
FPI is the holdout at Wake Forest by 5.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Miami (OH) RedHawks at UMass MinutemenMiami (OH) at MassachusettsCFB Sat 10 Oct, 1:00pmMiami (OH) -2should be Miami (OH) -3 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 2, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 3. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +111 | -127 |
All 22 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Miami (OH) ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -114 | 46.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2 -114 | 46.5 -113 | +102 | -125 |
| BetRivers | +2 -115 | 46.5 -114 | +102 | -125 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -103 | +112 | -127 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +100 | -125 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 47.5 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -108 | — | +113 | — |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 47.5 -111 | +108 | -138 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -2.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $4 available; Over 47.5, only $77 available; Under 47.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts's last game | |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +181 |
| Massey | +12.5 | +415 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 50.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -2.0 | -112 | -123 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -130 | -143 | +2.3% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 47.5 here against 46.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Miami (OH) and Massachusetts played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Virginia Tech Hokies at California Golden BearsVirginia Tech at CaliforniaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCalifornia +9.5should be California +8 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +13A Little Nasty · CaliforniaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, California. Market says Virginia Tech by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 8. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but California is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
All 22 books
| California spread | Total (over) | California ML | Virginia Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 +102 | 52.5 -110 | +280 | -370 |
| Kalshi | +10.5 -126 54¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +290 | -350 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 +102 | 52.5 -110 | +296 | -370 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -110 | 54 -109 | +275 | -360 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -112 | 54 -110 | +270 | -360 |
| BetUS | +9.5 +100 | 54 -110 | +295 | -370 |
| Bovada | +10 -110 | 53.5 -105 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +10 -108 | 53.5 -106 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +10.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in |
| Fanatics | +10 -110 | 53 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +9.5 -105 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +275 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 +106 | 52.5 -108 | +296 | -370 |
| MyBookie.ag | +10.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +310 | -410 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -107 | 53 -112 | +302 | -386 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -104 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +10.5 -119 | 53.5 -111 | +295 | -420 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 +100 | 53.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is California +9.5 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 60°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +10.0. The market has moved 2.9 toward California, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -10.5, only $106 available; Under 53.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus.
TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +315 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +293 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +9.5 | +102 | -107 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +296 | +292 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 52.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward California Golden Bears since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.9 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.2 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Virginia Tech and California played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Kent State Golden Flashes at Western Michigan BroncosKent State at Western MichiganCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -15 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsA Little Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 15. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
All 22 books
| Western Michigan spread | Total (over) | Western Michigan ML | Kent State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +390 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 +101 48¢ | -609 85¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -113 | 43.5 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +435 |
| BetMGM | -13.5 -112 | 43.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +421 |
| betPARX | -14 -113 | 43.5 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -14 -114 | 43.5 -117 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -560 | +430 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -113 | 43.5 -108 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -630 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -13.5 -111 | 43.5 -108 | -560 | +421 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -698 | +456 |
| Pinnacle | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -110 | -595 | +431 |
| Polymarket | — | 43.5 | -525 | — |
| ReBet | -14.5 -105 | 43.5 -111 | -800 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 43.5 -110 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan -13.5 · -115 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 77°F.
Kalshi thin: Kent State Golden Flashes +13.5, only $16 available; Over 43.5, only $3 available; Kent State Golden Flashes ML, only $78 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan's last game | |
| FPI | -18.5 | -790 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -749 |
| Massey | -16.5 | -591 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.5 | -536 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 42.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Michigan Broncos -13.5 | -115 | -120 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Western Michigan Broncos ML | -560 | -540 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kent State and Western Michigan played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at FloridaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:45amSouth Carolina +13.5should be South Carolina +10.5 · getting 3 pts at Kalshi · was +15▼A Little Nasty · South CarolinaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Carolina. Market says Florida by 12, the Nasty Number says Florida by 10.5. At -116 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 62 to 60.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -107 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -102 | 61 +100 | -508 | +379 |
All 23 books
| Florida spread | Total (over) | Florida ML | South Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -107 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +370 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -103 49¢ | 60.5 -107 50¢ | -490 82¢ | +398 19¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12.5 -112 | 61 -108 | -435 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| BetMGM | -12 -108 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -107 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +383 |
| betPARX | -12.5 -112 | 61 -108 | -435 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -12.5 -112 | 61 -109 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +390 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -525 | +375 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -106 | -483 | +392 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -112 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +380 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -12.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -500 | +375 |
| Fliff | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -115 | -520 | +370 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -103 | 60.5 -108 | -500 | +383 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | -510 | +362 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -102 | 61 +100 | -508 | +379 |
| Polymarket | — | 59.5 -113 | -456 | +426 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 60.5 -111 | -469 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -115 | 59.5 -110 | -550 | +380 |
Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +13.5 · -116 (52¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 83°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · South Carolina. The line went from -12.5 to -12.0.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -12.0. The market has moved 2.6 toward South Carolina, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida's last game | |
| FPI | -8.0 | -291 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -309 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -259 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.0 | -478 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 58.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5 | -116 | -119 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | South Carolina Gamecocks ML | +398 | +366 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 60.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 10-02 12:00; total has moved up 3.3.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 60.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since South Carolina and Florida played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green FalconsSacramento State at Bowling GreenCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amBowling Green -7should be Bowling Green -8.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOMA Little Nasty · Bowling GreenBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Bowling Green. Market says Bowling Green by 7, the Nasty Number says Bowling Green by 8.5. At -120 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
All 21 books
| Bowling Green spread | Total (over) | Bowling Green ML | Sacramento State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +230 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -112 51¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -290 73¢ | +240 28¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -295 | +240 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -120 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +237 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -112 | -315 | +245 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -112 | 44.5 -113 | -315 | +245 |
| BetUS | -8.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -290 | +240 |
| Bovada | -8 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +250 |
| Courtside | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +246 |
| DraftKings | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -298 | +240 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 74¢ -317 all-in | 29¢ +223 all-in |
| Fanatics | -8 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -300 | +240 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -295 | +235 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -116 | 44.5 -108 | -290 | +237 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -329 | +254 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -110 | 44 -115 | -301 | +245 |
| ReBet | -8.5 -111 | 44.5 -111 | -380 | +270 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -115 | 44.5 +100 | -290 | +240 |
Marked: best for Bowling Green, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bowling Green -7.0 · -120 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Kalshi thin: Sacramento State Hornets +7.5, only $419 available; Under 44.5, only $1 available; Over 43.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.6 consensus.
TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green's last game | |
| FPI | -10.0 | -349 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -369 |
| Massey | -9.5 | -312 |
| Market (18 books) | -7.0 | -278 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 42.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Bowling Green Falcons -7.0 | -120 | -123 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Bowling Green Falcons ML | -290 | -298 | +0.5% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.6 consensus; total 44.5 here against 44.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Bowling Green played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Duke Blue Devils at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsDuke at Georgia TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia Tech +6.5should be Georgia Tech +6 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelA Little Nasty · Georgia TechBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Georgia Tech. Market says Duke by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Duke by 6. At +100 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 7 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 45.5 +109 46¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 44.5 -103 | +203 | -243 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Tech spread | Total (over) | Georgia Tech ML | Duke ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 45.5 +109 46¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -106 | 44.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -108 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -107 | 43.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -106 | 44.5 -112 | +210 | -265 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -107 | 44.5 -113 | +200 | -265 |
| BetUS | +7 -120 | 44 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 44 -115 | +205 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | +215 | -252 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 43.5 -118 | +210 | -258 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -105 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -103 | 43.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +212 | -270 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -104 | 44.5 -103 | +203 | -243 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +100 | 43.5 -117 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 44.5 -114 | +214 | -285 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 44.5 -105 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Georgia Tech, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Georgia Tech +6.5 · +100 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 70°F, 81% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5, only $24 available; Under 45.5, only $55 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +291 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +285 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +117 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML | +220 | +207 | +1.4% |
| Spread | Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets +6.5 | +100 | -103 | +0.7% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 7.4.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.4 consensus; moneyline +209 here against +232 consensus.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at Akron ZipsEastern Michigan at AkronCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmAkron +7should be Akron +6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Eastern Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Eastern Michigan by 6, but the market has moved 3.2 points away from Akron since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Akron is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
All 22 books
| Akron spread | Total (over) | Akron ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +215 | -275 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +208 31¢ | -263 71¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetAnything | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +220 | -275 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +226 | -275 |
| betPARX | +7 -114 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -278 |
| BetRivers | +7 -115 | 51.5 -112 | +215 | -278 |
| BetUS | +7 -115 | 52 -115 | +230 | -275 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 51.5 -115 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +7 -113 | 52.5 -106 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +7 -115 | 51.5 -118 | +215 | -265 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 52 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 -104 | +220 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 51.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -111 | 52 -114 | +226 | -275 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 52 -110 | +220 | -280 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -102 | 52 -104 | +209 | -251 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -108 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -103 | 51.5 -116 | +216 | -290 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 +100 | 52.5 +100 | +225 | -275 |
Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles -6.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron's last game | |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +120 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Akron Zips ML | +215 | +198 | +1.8% |
| Spread | Akron Zips +7.0 | -115 | -124 | +1.8% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -105 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward Eastern Michigan Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +6.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Eastern Michigan and Akron played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulane Green Wave at Army Black KnightsTulane at ArmyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amTulane +3.5should be Tulane +3 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +5.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
All 22 books
| Army spread | Total (over) | Army ML | Tulane ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 48 -115 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -109 | 47.5 -113 | -167 | +138 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -114 | -175 | +135 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 48 -110 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -116 | 48.5 -103 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 48.5 -105 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -105 | 47.5 -114 | -164 | +136 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 48 -114 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -166 | +135 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 48 -116 | -159 | +138 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | -156 | +150 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 48.5 -109 | -170 | +132 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Tulane, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulane +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.4 toward Tulane, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $1 available; Army Black Knights -3.5, only $15 available; Tulane Green Wave +3.5, only $96 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Army's last game | |
| FPI | -2.0 | -115 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -270 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulane Green Wave +3.5 | -112 | -120 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Tulane Green Wave ML | +140 | +134 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Tulane Green Wave since 10-04 10:17; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Army played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
North Carolina Tar Heels at Pittsburgh PanthersNorth Carolina at PittsburghCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amPittsburgh to winour data says 65 in 100 · -180Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 4, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
All 23 books
| Pittsburgh spread | Total (over) | Pittsburgh ML | North Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 47.5 -107 50¢ | — | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -120 | 47.5 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| BetOnline.ag | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -4 -109 | 47 -108 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4 -110 | 47 -109 | -186 | +148 |
| BetUS | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -4 -108 | 46.5 -121 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4 -110 | 47.5 -102 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 47.5 -106 | -178 | +146 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -120 | 46.5 -125 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -115 | 46.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -111 | 47 -108 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 47 -110 | -206 | +166 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -113 | 47 -107 | -185 | +158 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +100 | -170 | — |
| ReBet | -4.5 -109 | 46.5 -119 | -212 | +162 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Pittsburgh to win · -180 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5, only $54 available; Pittsburgh Panthers ML, only $333 available; Pittsburgh Panthers -3.5, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh's last game | |
| FPI | -8.5 | -302 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -341 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -305 |
| Market (19 books) | -4.0 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | -180 | -189 | +1.1% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers -4.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.3% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.2.
TOM: spread -4.0 here against -3.7 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since North Carolina and Pittsburgh played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Central Michigan Chippewas at Ohio BobcatsCentral Michigan at OhioCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3should be Ohio -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ohio by 3, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 46 -111 | -146 | +127 |
All 22 books
| Ohio spread | Total (over) | Ohio ML | Central Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 46.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 46 -115 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -150 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -3 -107 | 46.5 -110 | -148 | +120 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 46.5 -112 | -148 | +120 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -105 | 46 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 46.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 46.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 46.5 -112 | -150 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 46.5 -103 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -152 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -101 | 46 -111 | -146 | +127 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -117 | 45.5 -113 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 45.5 -116 | -155 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Ohio, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Central Michigan Chippewas +2.5, only $71 available; Central Michigan Chippewas ML, only $485 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio's last game | |
| FPI | -4.0 | -173 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -152 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -245 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 45.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.0 | -105 | -106 | +0.3% |
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -148 | -148 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 46.5 here against 46.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Central Michigan and Ohio played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
James Madison Dukes at Georgia Southern EaglesJames Madison at Georgia SouthernCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmJames Madison to winour data says 75 in 100 · -285▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 7.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 8. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but James Madison is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 52.5 -101 | +256 | -317 |
All 22 books
| Georgia Southern spread | Total (over) | Georgia Southern ML | James Madison ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -107 50¢ | 52.5 +105 47¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 51.5 -112 | +240 | -295 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -115 | 52 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -109 | 52.5 -112 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -113 | +245 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -118 | 51.5 -113 | +256 | -302 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -118 | 51.5 -115 | +250 | -310 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 52 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -106 | +230 | -285 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -111 | 52 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +240 | -310 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -114 | 52.5 -101 | +256 | -317 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -104 | +257 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 52.5 -114 | +234 | -319 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +230 | -280 |
Marked: best for James Madison, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is James Madison to win · -285 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 73°F, 84% chance of rain. Total pulled down 3.1 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · James Madison, now Not Nasty.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from James Madison, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. There's no injury feed for college, so the move is the warning.
Kalshi thin: Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $52 available; Under 51.5, only $491 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +287 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern's last game | |
| FPI | +11.0 | +374 |
| Sagarin | +7.5 | +280 |
| Massey | +14.0 | +479 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.5 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 50.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -285 | -294 | +0.6% |
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -7.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 2.2.
TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.3 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +287 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since James Madison and Georgia Southern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Arizona Wildcats at West Virginia MountaineersArizona at West VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amArizona -3should be Arizona -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Arizona by 3, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arizona is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 61 -107 | +137 | -158 |
All 22 books
| West Virginia spread | Total (over) | West Virginia ML | Arizona ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +131 | -161 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 61.5 | +134 41¢ | -167 61¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetAnything | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 61.5 -108 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +141 | -161 |
| betPARX | +3 -107 | 61 -113 | +132 | -162 |
| BetRivers | +3 -108 | 61 -114 | +130 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -115 | +138 | -160 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 61 -110 | +135 | -160 |
| Courtside | +3 -103 | 61.5 -108 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 60.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -122 | 61.5 -105 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -120 | 61.5 -105 | +130 | -160 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -101 | 61.5 -114 | +141 | -161 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +133 | -164 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -104 | 61 -107 | +137 | -158 |
| Polymarket | — | 61.5 +100 | +144 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -114 | +132 | -169 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -125 | 61.5 -110 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Arizona, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -3.5, only $64 available; Over 61.5, only $150 available; Under 61.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | +5.0 | +186 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +199 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | 59.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Wildcats -3.0 | -115 | -116 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Wildcats ML | -161 | -160 | -0.1% |
| Total | Under 61.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.7.
TOM: total 61.5 here against 61.2 consensus; moneyline +137 here against +149 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Arizona and West Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Illinois Fighting Illini at Michigan State SpartansIllinois at Michigan StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmIllinois -2.5should be Illinois -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Illinois by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Illinois by 3.5 to Illinois by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -126 54¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
All 22 books
| Michigan State spread | Total (over) | Michigan State ML | Illinois ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 46.5 -126 54¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -108 | 48 -105 | +113 | -133 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +114 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 47.5 -112 | +112 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +120 | -140 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 48.5 -105 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -104 | 48 -103 | +113 | -133 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +113 | -139 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +100 | 48.5 +101 | +119 | -137 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -108 | +122 | -133 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 47.5 -119 | +111 | -141 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Michigan State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Michigan State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Michigan State Spartans +2.5, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +106 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +155 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +118 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +118 | +118 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +2.5 | -108 | -103 | -1.3% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Michigan State Spartans since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 3.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Illinois and Michigan State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
UConn Huskies at Temple OwlsUConn at TempleCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:45pmTemple -3.5should be Temple -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Temple by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Temple by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 52.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +162 |
All 22 books
| Temple spread | Total (over) | Temple ML | UConn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 55 -105 | -175 | +145 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -116 52¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -185 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 55 -105 | -175 | +153 |
| betPARX | -4.5 -108 | 53.5 -115 | -186 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -4.5 -109 | 53.5 -117 | -186 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Bovada | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -113 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -172 | +142 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -185 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -4 -101 | 55 -103 | -175 | +153 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 55 -110 | -187 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -4 -107 | 54 -115 | -189 | +162 |
| Polymarket | — | 53.5 -117 | — | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -194 | +150 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -4.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Temple, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Temple Owls ML, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple's last game | |
| FPI | -5.0 | -184 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -0.5 | -103 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Temple Owls -3.5 | -105 | -106 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Temple Owls ML | -175 | -170 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Temple Owls since 10-04 13:20; total has moved up 1.3.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.2 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UConn and Temple played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ole Miss Rebels at Vanderbilt CommodoresOle Miss at VanderbiltCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmVanderbilt +9.5should be Vanderbilt +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Ole Miss by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Ole Miss by 8.5. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +285 | -375 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +10 -112 | 57.5 +101 | +300 | -382 |
All 22 books
| Vanderbilt spread | Total (over) | Vanderbilt ML | Ole Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +285 | -375 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -103 49¢ | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +10 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +290 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +10 -110 | 57.5 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +299 | -375 |
| betPARX | +10 -113 | 57.5 -108 | +290 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +10 -114 | 57.5 -109 | +290 | -385 |
| BetUS | +10 -110 | 57 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +295 | -390 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +303 | -364 |
| DraftKings | +10 -115 | 56.5 -112 | +295 | -375 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -105 | 57 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +10.5 -122 | 56.5 -115 | +285 | -365 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -105 | 56.5 -120 | +285 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +10 -112 | 57.5 +101 | +300 | -382 |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 -113 | — | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -105 | 57.5 -116 | +280 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -105 | 56.5 -110 | +280 | -360 |
Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 79°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +10.0. The market has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $10 available; Under 55.5, only $104 available; Vanderbilt Commodores ML, only $174 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +298 here against +346 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt's last game | |
| FPI | +6.0 | +205 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +125 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +238 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +298 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 57.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +9.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.0% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +285 | +297 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Vanderbilt Commodores since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread +9.5 here against +9.8 consensus; total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus; moneyline +298 here against +346 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Vanderbilt played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at NebraskaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00amIndiana -7should be Indiana -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Indiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Indiana by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Indiana by 9 to Indiana by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +101 | 49 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -107 | +262 | -326 |
All 23 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +101 | 49 -105 | +235 | -310 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -103 49¢ | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 48.5 -112 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +101 | 49 -105 | +252 | -310 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +245 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 49.5 -112 | +240 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -110 | 49 -105 | +255 | -310 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +265 | -330 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -103 | +251 | -297 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | +245 | -305 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -114 | +255 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -115 | +245 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | +250 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +105 | 49 -103 | +252 | -310 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -108 | 49.5 -107 | +262 | -326 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 49.5 +104 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 49.5 -111 | +242 | -330 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 18 mph wind, 76°F. Total pulled down 2.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +7.5 (the market moved 2.1 toward Nebraska).
Kalshi thin: Indiana Hoosiers -7.5, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +246 here against +294 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska's last game | |
| FPI | +7.0 | +228 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +186 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +380 |
| Market (19 books) | +7.0 | +246 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -7.0 | -121 | -109 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -310 | -264 | -3.1% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus; moneyline +246 here against +294 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Indiana and Nebraska played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsBall State at NorthwesternCFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:30amNorthwestern -37should be Northwestern -38 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Northwestern by 37.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Northwestern by 35.5 to Northwestern by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 53 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Ball State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 53.5 -107 50¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -37.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -37 -110 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| betPARX | -37.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -37.5 -115 | 53.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetUS | -37 -110 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
| Bovada | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Courtside | -36.5 -108 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -36.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -36.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 57¢ -144 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -37 -110 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -36.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -37 -106 | 52.5 -103 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -37 -107 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -35.5 -127 | 52.5 -110 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Northwestern).
Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $17 available; Ball State Cardinals ML, only $136 available; Over 53.5, only $91 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern's last game | |
| FPI | -39.0 | — |
| Sagarin | -39.0 | — |
| Massey | rates Ball State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (17 books) | -37.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 44.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Northwestern Wildcats -37.0 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Northwestern Wildcats ML | — | — | priced at 99 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -115 | -137 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Ball State and Northwestern played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI and Sagarin.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Appalachian State MountaineersOld Dominion at App StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pmApp State -9.5should be App State -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says App State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says App State by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -105 | -378 | +297 |
All 22 books
| App State spread | Total (over) | App State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -350 | +280 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 49.5 -110 | -350 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 50.5 -107 | -420 | +310 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -420 | +310 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 49.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50 -105 | -390 | +295 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -108 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 50.5 -108 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | -425 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -111 | 49.5 -103 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -10 +100 | 50 -105 | -378 | +297 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -104 | — | +317 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -125 | 49.5 -116 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 +100 | -380 | +290 |
Marked: best for the App State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 63°F, 27% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -7.0, now -10.0 (the market moved 2.9 toward App State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5, only $230 available; Under 49.5, only $9 available; Appalachian State Mountaineers ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus.
TOM: total 49.5 here against 50.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion's last game | |
| FPI | -9.5 | -310 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -355 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -130 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Appalachian State Mountaineers -9.5 | -115 | -103 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Appalachian State Mountaineers ML | -370 | -323 | -2.4% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward Appalachian State Mountaineers since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 1.5.
TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.9 consensus; total 49.5 here against 50.0 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Old Dominion played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Buffalo Bulls at Toledo RocketsBuffalo at ToledoCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmToledo -20.5should be Toledo -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Toledo by 19.5 to Toledo by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -1332 | +786 |
All 22 books
| Toledo spread | Total (over) | Toledo ML | Buffalo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | +1150 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -117 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | +1150 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 54.5 -115 | — | +1150 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 54.5 -113 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 54.5 -115 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 9¢ +809 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2100 | +1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -113 | 54.5 -114 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -1408 | +760 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -116 | -1332 | +786 |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 | -1150 | — |
| ReBet | -20.5 -116 | 54.5 -119 | -1493 | +720 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 54.5 -115 | -2500 | +1100 |
Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -19.5, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Toledo).
Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets -20.5, only $18 available; Toledo Rockets ML, only $285 available; Over 55.5, only $383 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo's last game | |
| FPI | -19.0 | -835 |
| Sagarin | -22.0 | -1228 |
| Massey | -20.5 | -925 |
| Market (18 books) | -20.5 | -1300 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -20.5 | -117 | -102 | -3.5% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1600 | -952 | priced at 94 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Toledo Rockets since 10-04 10:17; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Buffalo and Toledo played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean GreenCharlotte at North TexasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmCharlotte +28.5should be Charlotte +27.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Texas by 28.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from North Texas by 27 to North Texas by 28.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 60 to 57.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
All 22 books
| North Texas spread | Total (over) | North Texas ML | Charlotte ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 57.5 -116 52¢ | -3476 97¢ | +2243 4¢ |
| Bally Bet | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -28.5 -108 | 57.5 -112 | — | +2000 |
| BetOnline.ag | -28.5 -115 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -28 -113 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -28 -114 | 57.5 -117 | — | — |
| BetUS | -28.5 -115 | 58 -110 | — | — |
| Bovada | -28 -120 | 58 -110 | — | +1300 |
| Courtside | -28.5 -110 | 57.5 -113 | — | +1878 |
| DraftKings | -28.5 -112 | 57.5 -115 | — | +1700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -28.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | 5¢ +1329 all-in |
| Fanatics | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +2000 |
| FanDuel | -28.5 -106 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -27.5 -120 | 57.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -28.5 -111 | 57.5 -114 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -28.5 -110 | 58 -110 | — | +1455 |
| Pinnacle | -28 -115 | 58 -108 | — | +1805 |
| Polymarket | — | 57.5 -108 | — | — |
| ReBet | -28.5 -111 | 58.5 -111 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -28.5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | — | +2500 |
Marked: best for the North Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened -25.5, now -28.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward North Texas).
Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green ML, only $300 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas's last game | |
| FPI | -26.0 | -1954 |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3124 |
| Massey | -26.0 | -1951 |
| Market (18 books) | -28.5 | -4112 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 65.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +28.5 | -105 | -121 | +3.5% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +1900 | +2299 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.5 | -115 | -130 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward North Texas Mean Green since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -28.5 here against -28.2 consensus; total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.
The line is -28.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Charlotte and North Texas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Houston Cougars at Kansas State WildcatsHouston at Kansas StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmKansas State -2.5should be Kansas State -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Kansas State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
All 23 books
| Kansas State spread | Total (over) | Kansas State ML | Houston ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 55.5 -105 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55 -110 | -137 | +117 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 56 -109 | -136 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 56 -110 | -137 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -108 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -137 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 55.5 -115 | -145 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -111 | 55 -108 | -137 | +117 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -141 | +115 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -133 | +116 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 55.5 | -127 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -119 | 55.5 -114 | -144 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Kansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Kansas State).
Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $69 available; Houston Cougars ML, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Houston's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +108 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -106 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -131 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Houston Cougars +2.5 | -105 | -103 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Houston Cougars ML | +117 | +118 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -110 | -113 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Kansas State Wildcats since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 3.2.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Houston played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Navy MidshipmenTulsa at NavyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNavy -2.5should be Navy -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Navy by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Navy by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
All 22 books
| Navy spread | Total (over) | Navy ML | Tulsa ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | — | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -110 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -112 | -143 | +115 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 49 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -137 | +114 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -112 | 49 -106 | -134 | +117 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 49.5 +104 | -133 | +122 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 48.5 -114 | -138 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Navy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulsa). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Navy Midshipmen -2.5, only $8 available; Over 48.5, only $17 available; Under 48.5, only $122 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +105 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -113 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -206 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 49.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +2.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +115 | +119 | -0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.8 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tulsa and Navy played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting IrishStanford at Notre DameCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmNotre Dame -38.5should be Notre Dame -37.5 · giving up 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 38.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Notre Dame by 37.5 to Notre Dame by 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
All 20 books
| Notre Dame spread | Total (over) | Notre Dame ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 54.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -38 -110 | 54 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -38.5 -108 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -38.5 -110 | 54 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -38 -115 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| Courtside | -38.5 +100 | 54.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -38.5 -102 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -38.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -38.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -37.5 -118 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -38.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -38.5 -106 | 54 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -38 -111 | 54.5 -105 | — | — |
| ReBet | -38.5 -109 | 54.5 -114 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -37.5 -120 | 54.5 -115 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Notre Dame side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -36.0, now -38.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame).
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $40 available; Over 53.5, only $2 available; Under 53.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame's last game | |
| FPI | -40.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -36.5 | — |
| Massey | -33.5 | — |
| Market (17 books) | -38.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Stanford Cardinal +38.5 | -110 | -114 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Stanford Cardinal ML | +4405 | — | priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.4 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.8.
TOM: spread -38.5 here against -38.1 consensus; total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
The line is -38.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Stanford and Notre Dame played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at OklahomaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutralTexas -8should be Texas -8 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 8, the Nasty Number says Texas by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 41 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -112 | 39.5 -115 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -322 |
All 22 books
| Oklahoma spread | Total (over) | Oklahoma ML | Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +8 -112 | 39.5 -115 | +240 | -315 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 | 39.5 | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -108 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +8 -112 | 39.5 -115 | +256 | -315 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +240 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -112 | 39 -112 | +240 | -335 |
| BetUS | +8 -110 | 39.5 -115 | +258 | -315 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -108 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +265 | -335 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 39.5 -115 | +255 | -335 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +240 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +8 -108 | 39.5 -114 | +256 | -315 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -110 | +261 | -342 |
| Pinnacle | +8 -110 | 39 -110 | +260 | -322 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 | 38.5 -113 | +300 | -317 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -111 | 39.5 -114 | +250 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -110 | 39.5 -105 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.
Across the books: opened +9.5, now +8.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma).
Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $84 available; Over 39.5, only $9 available; Oklahoma Sooners +7.5, only $93 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +251 here against +296 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +318 |
| FPI | +14.0 | +489 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +233 |
| Massey | +7.0 | +250 |
| Market (19 books) | +8.0 | +251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 39.5 | 38.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oklahoma Sooners +8.0 | -112 | -101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Oklahoma Sooners ML | +266 | +287 | -1.5% |
| Total | Under 39.5 | -105 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Oklahoma Sooners since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM: total 39.5 here against 39.2 consensus; moneyline +251 here against +296 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at OregonCFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pmOregon -12should be Oregon -12 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon by 11 to Oregon by 12. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 60.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +358 |
All 21 books
| Oregon spread | Total (over) | Oregon ML | UCLA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 58.5 -116 52¢ | -404 79¢ | +331 22¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -110 | 59 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | -450 | +360 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -105 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +358 |
| betPARX | -12 -110 | 59 -108 | -480 | +360 |
| BetRivers | -12 -112 | 59 -109 | -500 | +350 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -113 | -460 | +360 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -108 | 58.5 -113 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 80¢ -456 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -120 | -475 | +340 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -475 | +350 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -101 | 58.5 -112 | -460 | +358 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -441 | +330 |
| Polymarket | -11.5 | — | — | — |
| ReBet | -11.5 -114 | 58.5 -109 | -450 | +320 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 55°F.
Across the books: opened -12.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UCLA).
Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $10 available; Under 58.5, only $0 available; Oregon Ducks -11.5, only $227 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -10.0 | -338 |
| FPI | -13.5 | -442 |
| Sagarin | -14.5 | -513 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -532 |
| Market (17 books) | -12.0 | -440 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 61.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Oregon Ducks -12.0 | -105 | -101 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Oregon Ducks ML | -404 | -409 | priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -113 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 10-02 14:33; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -12.0 here against -11.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Rice Owls at East Carolina PiratesRice at East CarolinaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:00pmEast Carolina -10should be East Carolina -10 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says East Carolina by 10, the Nasty Number says East Carolina by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from East Carolina by 9.5 to East Carolina by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -390 | +305 |
All 22 books
| East Carolina spread | Total (over) | East Carolina ML | Rice ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +290 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 45.5 | -381 78¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 47.5 -105 | -375 | +290 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +303 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | -400 | +300 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 47 -110 | -380 | +305 |
| Bovada | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 47.5 -103 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -104 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -106 | 47 -108 | -380 | +303 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -400 | +300 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -390 | +305 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 +100 | -355 | +317 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 47.5 -111 | -441 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 46.5 -120 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the East Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward East Carolina).
Kalshi thin: East Carolina Pirates -9.5, only $124 available; Over 45.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Rice's last game | |
| FPI | -10.5 | -371 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -344 |
| Massey | -14.5 | -527 |
| Market (18 books) | -10.0 | -364 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 47.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | East Carolina Pirates -10.0 | -110 | -103 | -1.8% |
| Moneyline | East Carolina Pirates ML | -380 | -347 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward East Carolina Pirates since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Rice played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tennessee Volunteers at Arkansas RazorbacksTennessee at ArkansasCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmArkansas +13.5should be Arkansas +13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 13. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
All 22 books
| Arkansas spread | Total (over) | Arkansas ML | Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +400 | -550 |
| Kalshi | +13.5 -103 49¢ | 52.5 +101 48¢ | +426 18¢ | -524 83¢ |
| Bally Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetAnything | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -525 |
| BetOnline.ag | +13.5 -107 | 51 -115 | +415 | -550 |
| betPARX | +13.5 -110 | 51 -113 | +400 | -590 |
| BetRivers | +13.5 -112 | 51 -114 | +390 | -590 |
| BetUS | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +425 | -550 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +400 | -575 |
| DraftKings | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | +410 | -550 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +410 | -550 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +390 | -530 |
| Fliff | +13.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +395 | -565 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +400 | -600 |
| LowVig.ag | +13.5 -103 | 51 -114 | +415 | -550 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -106 | 51 -118 | +412 | -562 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 -104 | — | -488 |
| ReBet | +13.5 -116 | 51.5 -109 | +380 | -575 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Arkansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks ML, only $105 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas's last game | |
| FPI | +15.5 | +560 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +312 |
| Massey | +10.5 | +365 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +418 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 58.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | -107 | -103 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +400 | +427 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.4.
TOM: moneyline +418 here against +502 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Tennessee and Arkansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Maryland Terrapins at Ohio State BuckeyesMaryland at Ohio StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 3:15pmMaryland +34should be Maryland +33.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 34.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Ohio State by 35 to Ohio State by 34. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
All 21 books
| Ohio State spread | Total (over) | Ohio State ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetAnything | -34 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -34.5 -108 | 56 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -34.5 -109 | 56 -109 | — | — |
| BetUS | -34 -110 | 56.5 -115 | — | — |
| Bovada | -34.5 -110 | 56 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -34.5 -112 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -34.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -34.5 -110 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -33 -122 | 56.5 -114 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -34.5 -106 | 56 -112 | — | — |
| Polymarket | — | 55.5 -113 | — | — |
| ReBet | -34.5 -119 | 56.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -34.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.
Across the books: opened -35.5, now -34.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Maryland).
Kalshi thin: Ohio State Buckeyes ML, only $8 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State's last game | |
| FPI | -33.5 | — |
| Sagarin | -29.0 | -3140 |
| Massey | -31.0 | -3916 |
| Market (17 books) | -34.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 54.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Maryland Terrapins +34.5 | -108 | -114 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Maryland Terrapins ML | +9252 | +5988 | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 56.5 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Maryland Terrapins since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM: spread -34.0 here against -34.4 consensus; total 56.5 here against 56.1 consensus.
The line is -34.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Maryland and Ohio State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Coastal Carolina Chanticleers at Marshall Thundering HerdCoastal Carolina at MarshallCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmMarshall -3should be Marshall -3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Marshall by 3, the Nasty Number says Marshall by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Marshall by 2.5 to Marshall by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 56 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
All 22 books
| Marshall spread | Total (over) | Marshall ML | Coastal Carolina ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +125 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 58.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +129 42¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -112 | 58.5 -105 | -160 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| betPARX | -3 -110 | 59.5 -107 | -157 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 59.5 -108 | -159 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 58 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 58.5 -106 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 58.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 58.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 58.5 -104 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 59.5 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -111 | 57 -130 | -150 | +130 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 58 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -108 | 58.5 -106 | -154 | +134 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +108 | 59.5 +108 | -150 | +138 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 58.5 -109 | -163 | +127 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 58.5 -105 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for the Marshall side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 72°F.
Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd -3.5, only $29 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall's last game | |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -137 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -197 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.0 | -144 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +3.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +125 | +139 | -2.7% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -130 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.0.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 58.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Coastal Carolina and Marshall played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at KentuckyCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmKentucky +9should be Kentucky +8 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 8. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from LSU by 10 to LSU by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 55 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 52 -106 | +271 | -339 |
All 23 books
| Kentucky spread | Total (over) | Kentucky ML | LSU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +265 | -340 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -116 52¢ | 51.5 -116 52¢ | +266 26¢ | -340 76¢ |
| Bally Bet | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetAnything | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -112 | +270 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9 -115 | 51.5 -110 | +274 | -340 |
| betPARX | +8.5 -109 | 52 -109 | +275 | -375 |
| BetRivers | +9 -113 | 52 -110 | +275 | -385 |
| BetUS | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -340 |
| Bovada | +8 -110 | 52 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -113 | +282 | -335 |
| DraftKings | +8.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -345 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +8.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +8.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +275 | -350 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -118 | +260 | -330 |
| Fliff | +8.5 -115 | 51.5 -125 | +265 | -355 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +275 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9 -111 | 51.5 -108 | +274 | -340 |
| MyBookie.ag | +8.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +260 | -340 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -115 | 52 -106 | +271 | -339 |
| Polymarket | +8.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | +285 | — |
| ReBet | +8.5 -114 | 51.5 -125 | +265 | -370 |
| theScore Bet | +8.5 -110 | 52.5 +100 | +260 | -320 |
Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 75°F, 33% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Kentucky). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers ML, only $409 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +311 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +171 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +191 |
| Market (19 books) | +9.0 | +277 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +8.5 | -108 | -105 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +265 | +287 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -110 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 10-02 18:01; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.9 consensus; moneyline +277 here against +314 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kentucky played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Nevada Wolf Pack at UTEP MinersNevada at UTEPCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pmUTEP +9.5should be UTEP +8.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nevada by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Nevada by 8.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -103 | 50 +101 | +294 | -373 |
All 22 books
| UTEP spread | Total (over) | UTEP ML | Nevada ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +270 | -360 |
| Kalshi | +9.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 +101 48¢ | +280 25¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetAnything | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +297 | -375 |
| BetMGM | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 -105 | +289 | -360 |
| betPARX | +9.5 -107 | 49.5 -109 | +295 | -385 |
| BetRivers | +9.5 -108 | 49.5 -110 | +295 | -400 |
| BetUS | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +290 | -360 |
| Bovada | +9.5 -105 | 49.5 -110 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -103 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +9.5 -112 | 49.5 -105 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +9.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +9.5 -110 | 49 -110 | +290 | -375 |
| FanDuel | +8.5 -106 | 49.5 -105 | +290 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +9.5 -115 | 49.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +9.5 -106 | 49.5 -103 | +289 | -360 |
| MyBookie.ag | +9 -110 | 49 -110 | +285 | -380 |
| Pinnacle | +9.5 -103 | 50 +101 | +294 | -373 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 | +300 | -335 |
| ReBet | +9.5 -111 | 48.5 -119 | +280 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +9.5 -110 | 49.5 +100 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 87°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $24 available; Over 49.5, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +341 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since UTEP's last game | |
| FPI | +12.0 | +402 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +173 |
| Massey | +6.5 | +210 |
| Market (18 books) | +9.5 | +282 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 51.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTEP Miners +9.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | UTEP Miners ML | +290 | +302 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 49.5 | -105 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.6.
TOM: moneyline +282 here against +341 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since UTEP played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Air Force Falcons at Northern Illinois HuskiesAir Force at Northern IllinoisCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAir Force -7should be Air Force -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Air Force by 7, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 7.5, but the market has moved 5.4 points away from Air Force since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 11.5 to Air Force by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -104 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
All 22 books
| Northern Illinois spread | Total (over) | Northern Illinois ML | Air Force ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -104 | 46 -112 | +255 | -330 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 | +252 27¢ | -306 74¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +255 | -325 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -104 | 46 -112 | +267 | -330 |
| betPARX | +7.5 -108 | 47.5 -103 | +260 | -335 |
| BetRivers | +7.5 -109 | 47.5 -104 | +260 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +270 | -330 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | +267 | -316 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 27¢ +245 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 47 -110 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -110 | +235 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 46.5 -120 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +100 | 46 -110 | +267 | -330 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 47 -110 | +246 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -111 | 47 -108 | +268 | -334 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 | +270 | -285 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -116 | 46.5 -119 | +246 | -340 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -120 | 46.5 -115 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F.
Across the books: opened +13.0, now +7.5 (the market moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -7.5, only $22 available; Over 46.5, only $122 available; Over 47.5, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Air Force's last game | |
| FPI | +9.5 | +317 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +190 |
| Massey | +8.5 | +296 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +266 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 50.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Air Force Falcons -7.0 | -116 | -116 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Air Force Falcons ML | -295 | -280 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -112 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 5.4 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 0.5.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.5 consensus; total 46.0 here against 46.9 consensus; moneyline +266 here against +302 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Air Force played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at AlabamaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmAlabama -2should be Alabama -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 2, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Alabama by 1 to Alabama by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 4.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 52 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 52 -110 | -116 | +101 |
All 23 books
| Alabama spread | Total (over) | Alabama ML | Georgia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2 -105 | 52 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -121 53¢ | -116 52¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52 -112 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2 -105 | 52 -110 | -121 | +101 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -110 | 52 -112 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -112 | 52 -113 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -2 -105 | 52 -105 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -113 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 51.5 -115 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 52¢ -117 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -120 | 51.5 -125 | -125 | +100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -2 -101 | 52 -108 | -121 | +101 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 52 -110 | -124 | +101 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -108 | 52 -110 | -116 | +101 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | — | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -114 | 51.5 -119 | -125 | -101 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 71°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.6 toward Alabama). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $84 available; Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $292 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -105 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -161 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -106 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.0 | -116 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 54.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Georgia Bulldogs +2.0 | -110 | -105 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Georgia Bulldogs ML | +101 | +111 | -2.3% |
| Total | Over 52.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 10-02 18:30; total has moved down 2.9.
TOM: spread -2.0 here against -1.6 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Georgia and Alabama played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Louisiana Tech BulldogsLouisiana at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmLouisiana Tech -2.5should be Louisiana Tech -3 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Louisiana Tech by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana Tech by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 50 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -117 | -148 | +128 |
All 22 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Louisiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 48.5 +101 48¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 47.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -113 | 48.5 -108 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Courtside | -3 -106 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -108 | 47.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 48.5 -104 | -154 | +128 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -150 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -122 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -150 | +122 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -107 | 47 -117 | -148 | +128 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -104 | -138 | — |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 47.5 -111 | -156 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 20 mph wind, 82°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 4.5 for it.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech).
Kalshi thin: Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML, only $150 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech's last game | |
| FPI | -1.0 | -107 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -211 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -117 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 48.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -2.5 | -125 | -108 | -3.7% |
| Moneyline | Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML | -145 | -130 | -2.6% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.3 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 10-04 13:20; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.9 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Louisiana and Louisiana Tech played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
USC Trojans at Penn State Nittany LionsUSC at Penn StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmPenn State -1.5should be Penn State -1.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from a pick'em to Penn State by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
All 23 books
| Penn State spread | Total (over) | Penn State ML | USC ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| Kalshi | -1.5 -107 50¢ | 55.5 +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ | -103 49¢ |
| Bally Bet | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -1.5 -108 | 54.5 -112 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -111 | 55 -105 | -125 | +105 |
| betPARX | -1.5 -109 | 55 -107 | -125 | +102 |
| BetRivers | -1.5 -110 | 55 -108 | -127 | +102 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Bovada | -1.5 -110 | 55 -105 | -115 | -105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -110 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -112 | 54.5 -112 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 53¢ -122 all-in | 50¢ -108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -106 | 54.5 -118 | -118 | +100 |
| Fliff | -1.5 -115 | 54.5 -120 | -125 | -105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | -125 | +100 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -107 | 55 -103 | -125 | +105 |
| MyBookie.ag | -1.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -121 | -101 |
| Pinnacle | -1 -110 | 54.5 -112 | -115 | +100 |
| Polymarket | -1.5 -104 | 55.5 +104 | -113 | +104 |
| ReBet | -1.5 -111 | 54.5 -116 | -123 | -103 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | -120 | +100 |
Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $73 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State's last game | |
| FPI | -1.5 | -113 |
| Sagarin | -2.5 | -120 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -171 |
| Market (19 books) | -1.5 | -120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 59.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans +1.5 | -109 | -100 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | +105 | +111 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 55.0 | -105 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 3.9.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.6 consensus; moneyline -120 here against -109 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since USC and Penn State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Syracuse Orange at Virginia CavaliersSyracuse at VirginiaCFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pmVirginia -9.5should be Virginia -9.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 8.5 to Virginia by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -116 | -363 | +288 |
All 22 books
| Virginia spread | Total (over) | Virginia ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +270 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetAnything | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +289 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 50 -112 | -360 | +275 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 50 -113 | -375 | +270 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -360 | +290 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -106 | -350 | +293 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -108 | -360 | +285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -106 | 50.5 -110 | -335 | +265 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -350 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -106 | 50 -108 | -360 | +289 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 50 -110 | -391 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -9.5 -106 | 49.5 -116 | -363 | +288 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +108 | — | +300 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -119 | 50.5 -111 | -410 | +290 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -110 | 50.5 -105 | -340 | +270 |
Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $100 available; Under 51.5, only $306 available; Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia's last game | |
| FPI | -9.0 | -309 |
| Sagarin | -10.0 | -338 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -327 |
| Market (18 books) | -9.5 | -344 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -335 | -316 | -1.0% |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Syracuse and Virginia played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Purdue BoilermakersMinnesota at PurdueCFB Sat 10 Oct, 7:00pmMinnesota -2should be Minnesota -2 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Minnesota by 2, the Nasty Number says Minnesota by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Minnesota by 3 to Minnesota by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -127 |
All 22 books
| Purdue spread | Total (over) | Purdue ML | Minnesota ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -108 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | — | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -112 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -108 | 51 -105 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -114 | +114 | -141 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -113 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -106 | 50.5 -115 | +114 | -137 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -104 | 51 -103 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +112 | -137 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -109 | 50.5 -115 | +111 | -127 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -104 | — | — | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | +110 | -140 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Purdue). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5, only $15 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $34 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue's last game | |
| FPI | +1.0 | +107 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +109 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +179 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.0 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 55.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.0 | -112 | -102 | -2.4% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Golden Gophers ML | -125 | -118 | -1.4% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -105 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Purdue Boilermakers since 10-04 06:30; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.5 consensus; total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus; moneyline +110 here against +121 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Minnesota and Purdue played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Kansas Jayhawks at Utah UtesKansas at UtahCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:15pmUtah -15.5should be Utah -15 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Utah by 15 to Utah by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -725 | +502 |
All 22 books
| Utah spread | Total (over) | Utah ML | Kansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -15.5 -107 | 50 -120 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -15 -118 | 50.5 -118 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -15.5 -107 | 50 -120 | -700 | +505 |
| betPARX | -15.5 -112 | 51 -114 | -770 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -15.5 -113 | 51 -115 | -770 | +500 |
| BetUS | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| Bovada | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -750 | +500 |
| Courtside | -15.5 -108 | 51.5 -103 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -15.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in | 15¢ +488 all-in |
| Fanatics | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +525 |
| FanDuel | -15.5 -110 | 50.5 -115 | -820 | +550 |
| Fliff | -15.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -785 | +510 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -15.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| MyBookie.ag | -15.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -752 | +510 |
| Pinnacle | -15 -112 | 52 -101 | -725 | +502 |
| Polymarket | — | 51.5 +100 | — | +567 |
| ReBet | -16.5 -111 | 50.5 -125 | -847 | +500 |
| theScore Bet | -15.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Utah side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 69°F, 48% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -15.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Utah).
Kalshi thin: Utah Utes -16.5, only $41 available; Kansas Jayhawks +16.5, only $26 available; Under 51.5, only $100 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Kansas's last game | |
| FPI | -15.0 | -545 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -411 |
| Massey | -17.5 | -681 |
| Market (18 books) | -15.5 | -653 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks +15.5 | -113 | -102 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | +550 | +549 | priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -120 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Utah Utes since 10-04 06:30.
TOM: spread -15.5 here against -15.2 consensus; total 50.0 here against 51.5 consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Kansas played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Arizona State Sun DevilsHawai'i at Arizona StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmArizona State -20.5should be Arizona State -20.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arizona State by 20.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Arizona State by 22.5 to Arizona State by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -102 | 51 -101 | -1607 | +896 |
All 21 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Hawai'i ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -113 | 50 -107 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -121 53¢ | — | -1429 93¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -113 | 50.5 -108 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -112 | 49.5 -120 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -113 | 50 -107 | -1700 | +945 |
| betPARX | -21 -113 | 50.5 -108 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -114 | 50.5 -109 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -20.5 -115 | 50 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -1800 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -113 | 49.5 -119 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 49.5 -115 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -21.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -109 | 50 -105 | -1700 | +945 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 50 -110 | -1587 | +800 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -102 | 51 -101 | -1607 | +896 |
| Polymarket | — | 49.5 -113 | -1329 | — |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -2000 | +1000 |
Marked: best for the Arizona State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Arizona State).
Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5, only $2 available; Over 50.5, only $95 available; Under 50.5, only $473 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State's last game | |
| FPI | -14.0 | -471 |
| Sagarin | -23.0 | -1322 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -868 |
| Market (17 books) | -20.5 | -1407 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +20.5 | -107 | -100 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | +920 | +933 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.0 | -113 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Arizona State Sun Devils since 10-04 06:30; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.9 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.6 consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Hawai'i and Arizona State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Boise State Broncos at Fresno State BulldogsBoise State at Fresno StateCFB Sat 10 Oct, 9:30pmBoise State -6.5should be Boise State -6 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 7.5 to Boise State by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -248 |
All 22 books
| Fresno State spread | Total (over) | Fresno State ML | Boise State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 48.5 -107 50¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -230 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +207 | -250 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 48.5 -109 | +185 | -230 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 48.5 -110 | +180 | -235 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +210 | -250 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | +195 | -240 |
| Fliff | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -115 | +195 | -255 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -108 | +207 | -250 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | +206 | -260 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -106 | 48.5 +100 | +207 | -248 |
| Polymarket | — | 47.5 -113 | +212 | -223 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 48.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.
Across the books: opened +8.0, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Fresno State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5, only $8 available; Under 47.5, only $389 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | sat out: hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State's last game | |
| FPI | +8.0 | +290 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +174 |
| Massey | +5.0 | +183 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +209 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +6.5 | -109 | -104 | -1.2% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +200 | +205 | -0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Fresno State Bulldogs since 10-04 06:30.
TOM matches the consensus.
SP+ hasn't rebuilt since Boise State and Fresno State played, so it sat out past Tuesday 9am and the Sauce here is FPI, Sagarin and Massey.
Sun Oct 11
13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Broncos at Chargers, Chargers +3.5.Denver Broncos at Los Angeles ChargersBroncos at ChargersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:05pmChargers +3.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Chargers +3 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +2Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Chargers +3.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.3% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chargers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +149 | -179 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
All 25 books
| Chargers spread | Total (over) | Chargers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +149 | -179 |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 42 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 42 -110 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +157 | -179 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 42 -105 | +155 | -180 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 42 -115 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -120 | 42 -110 | +152 | -182 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 42.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -118 | 42.5 -112 | +148 | -176 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -115 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -116 | 42 -102 | +157 | -179 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +147 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -117 | 42.5 -102 | +153 | -175 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -113 | 42.5 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +153 | -182 |
| theScore Bet | +3 +100 | 42.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for Chargers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Chargers +3.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from Chargers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Denver Broncos -3.5, only $164 available; Over 42.5, only $243 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Pat Bryant (WR, Broncos), Branson Taylor (G, Chargers) and 1 more.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | -100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +112 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +156 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 39.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 | -110 | -126 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | Los Angeles Chargers ML | +149 | +141 | +1.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Denver Broncos since 10-03 15:09; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.4 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Houston Texans at Tennessee TitansTexans at TitansNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmTitans +7.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Titans +7 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +6.5▼A Little Nasty · TitansBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Titans. Market says Texans by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 7. At -113 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Titans's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 39.5 to 37.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
All 26 books
| Titans spread | Total (over) | Titans ML | Texans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +295 | -385 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -107 50¢ | +296 24¢ | -360 77¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -109 | 38 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetAnything | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +320 | -400 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -108 | +300 | -375 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7.5 -113 | 37.5 -110 | +306 | -385 |
| betPARX | +7 -109 | 38 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetRivers | +7 -109 | 38 -110 | +250 | -315 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +308 | -385 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -112 | 37.5 -115 | +290 | -380 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -106 | +287 | -345 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -108 | +280 | -355 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 36.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in | 77¢ -376 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -400 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -118 | 37.5 -115 | +295 | -370 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -115 | +290 | -420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -375 |
| LowVig.ag | +7.5 -105 | 37.5 -107 | +306 | -385 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 37.5 -110 | +290 | -410 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -106 | 37.5 -109 | +311 | -384 |
| Polymarket | +7.5 -104 | 36.5 | +317 | -335 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -120 | 37.5 -110 | +310 | -391 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -115 | 37.5 -110 | +300 | -400 |
Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans +7.5 · -113 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Moved down since the last run: was Damn Near Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Titans.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now +7.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Titans, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans -7.5, only $16 available; Over 36.5, only $315 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 3 more.
TOM: moneyline +308 here against +348 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +181 |
| Sagarin | +4.5 | +195 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +143 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.5 | +308 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 37.5 | 38.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +295 | +273 | +1.5% |
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +7.5 | -113 | -118 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 37.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Houston Texans since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: moneyline +308 here against +348 consensus.
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta FalconsRavens at FalconsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 7:20pmRavens +3.5should be Ravens +2.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Falcons by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Falcons by 2.5, but the market has moved 9.8 points away from Ravens since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 7 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 7 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ravens is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 44 -103 | -183 | +160 |
All 25 books
| Falcons spread | Total (over) | Falcons ML | Ravens ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -188 | +158 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | -167 61¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -112 | -185 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -108 | 43.5 -115 | -188 | +164 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -109 | -182 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -190 | +163 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -114 | -182 | +154 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -113 | -176 | +153 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -104 | 43.5 -110 | -180 | +152 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -120 | -175 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -105 | 44 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +101 | 43.5 -113 | -188 | +164 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 44 -110 | -192 | +148 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -103 | 44 -103 | -183 | +160 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 -108 | -163 | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 -110 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Ravens, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +6.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 9.8 away from Ravens, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $301 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB questionable: Lamar Jackson (Ravens), Questionable. Check before kickoff.
Also out: Durham Smythe (TE, Ravens), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons) and 1 more.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +0.5 | +102 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -118 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +206 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +126 |
| Market (21 books) | -3.5 | -180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 | -112 | -142 | +5.8% |
| Moneyline | Baltimore Ravens ML | +158 | +124 | +5.8% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -115 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 9.8 toward Atlanta Falcons since 10-03 19:24; total has moved down 5.7.
TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville JaguarsEagles at JaguarsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 8:30am · neutralEagles +7.5should be Eagles +6.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 6.5, but the market has moved 4.8 points away from Eagles since it opened. A move that size against the ratings usually means news the Four don't have. This isn't a bet.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts
BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 42. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -362 | +296 |
All 26 books
| Jaguars spread | Total (over) | Jaguars ML | Eagles ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +275 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 -107 50¢ | 41.5 -116 52¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +297 |
| BetMGM | -7.5 -108 | 42 -108 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +292 |
| betPARX | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -8 -110 | 41.5 -110 | -420 | +320 |
| BetUS | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -365 | +293 |
| Bovada | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -370 | +285 |
| Caesars | -7.5 -105 | 42 -108 | -345 | +275 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 41.5 -119 | -345 | +287 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -105 | -355 | +280 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -7.5 -106 | 41.5 -115 | -375 | +300 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -385 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 42 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7.5 -105 | 42 -107 | -365 | +292 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -420 | +295 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 -106 | 42.5 +103 | -362 | +296 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 +100 | 42.5 +108 | -335 | +317 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | -391 | +310 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 -110 | 41.5 -105 | -425 | +320 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -7.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Also out: Tank Bigsby (RB, Eagles), Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Caleb Ransaw (S, Jaguars) and 1 more.
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -258 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.5 | -178 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.5 | -349 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 42.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +7.5 | -110 | -128 | +3.8% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +300 | +251 | +3.5% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 10-03 08:53; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
New York Giants at Washington CommandersGiants at CommandersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +3.5should be Giants +3 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Commanders by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Commanders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -105 | 43 +103 | -191 | +167 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Giants ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 42 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -108 | -190 | +155 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | -185 | +161 |
| betPARX | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -113 | 43 -112 | -190 | +155 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 41.5 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -113 | -182 | +151 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | -166 | +145 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | -170 | +142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 42.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -118 | 42.5 -115 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -185 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -190 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -107 | -185 | +161 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -195 | +151 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -105 | 43 +103 | -191 | +167 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +100 | 42.5 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -187 | +157 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 42.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +3.5 · -104 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F, 95% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $66 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Braxton Berrios (WR, Giants).
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +105 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -108 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Giants +3.5 | -104 | -115 | +2.4% |
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +164 | +154 | +1.5% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington Commanders since 10-03 12:02.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.8 consensus.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks49ers at SeahawksNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pm49ers +3should be 49ers +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 3, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 46 -108 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 46 -106 | -170 | +150 |
All 26 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | 49ers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -115 | 46 -108 | -170 | +140 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 46.5 -103 49¢ | -167 61¢ | +140 40¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -175 | +151 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 46 -108 | -165 | +138 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -115 | 46 -108 | -170 | +149 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 46.5 -114 | -155 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 46.5 -110 | -170 | +146 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -175 | +150 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 46.5 -106 | -170 | +141 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -113 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -122 | 45.5 -115 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 46 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -135 | 46.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -115 | 46 -105 | -170 | +149 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 46 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 46 -106 | -170 | +150 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +117 | 46.5 +104 | -163 | +156 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -120 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 46.5 -105 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers +3.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 59°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $237 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Dante Pettis (WR, 49ers) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -129 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +103 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -140 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -163 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 48.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers +3.0 | -105 | -120 | +3.3% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | +140 | +126 | +2.6% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -108 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Miami DolphinsBengals at DolphinsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmBengals -7should be Bengals -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 7, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -118 | 42 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
All 26 books
| Dolphins spread | Total (over) | Dolphins ML | Bengals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -118 | 42 -115 | +250 | -325 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -103 49¢ | 42.5 -116 52¢ | — | -322 75¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +280 | -350 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -325 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -118 | 42 -115 | +263 | -325 |
| betPARX | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +7 -117 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -345 |
| BetUS | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +265 | -325 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -105 | 43 -105 | +260 | -320 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -103 | 42.5 -108 | +265 | -335 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -108 | +277 | -331 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -330 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -102 | 42.5 -110 | +260 | -320 |
| Fliff | +7.5 -125 | 42.5 -115 | +275 | -385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +7 -110 | 42.5 -115 | +260 | -325 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -114 | 42 -113 | +263 | -325 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -120 | 42.5 -110 | +240 | -330 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -115 | 42.5 -112 | +263 | -316 |
| Polymarket | +6.5 +104 | 42.5 -108 | — | -317 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 42.5 -110 | +250 | -310 |
| theScore Bet | +7 -110 | 42.5 -110 | +270 | -340 |
Marked: best for Bengals, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened +9.0, now +7.0. The market has moved 2.2 away from Bengals, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $15 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $153 available; Miami Dolphins ML, only $261 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Reese Taylor (CB, Dolphins).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +261 here against +299 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +8.0 | +339 |
| FPI | +8.5 | +343 |
| Sagarin | +9.5 | +375 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +130 |
| Market (22 books) | +7.0 | +261 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 45.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bengals -7.0 | -102 | -108 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bengals ML | -325 | -307 | -1.0% |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -115 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Miami Dolphins since 10-03 12:02; total has moved down 4.0.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus; moneyline +261 here against +299 consensus.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay PackersBears at PackersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPackers +2should be Packers +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 2, the Nasty Number says Bears by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Packers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 46 -102 | +124 | -140 |
All 26 books
| Packers spread | Total (over) | Packers ML | Bears ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +110 | -130 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | — | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 46 -108 | +110 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 45.5 -113 | +110 | -130 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -112 | +114 | -137 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +117 | -137 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -112 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -115 | +120 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -104 | 46 -102 | +124 | -140 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 -108 | 46.5 +108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +114 | -134 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 4.8 away from Packers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Green Bay Packers ML, only $0 available; Under 46.5, only $297 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Anthony Johnson Jr. (S, Bears), Edgerrin Cooper (LB, Packers).
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -120 |
| FPI | -1.0 | +109 |
| Sagarin | +1.5 | +187 |
| Massey | -1.5 | +104 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 45.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Green Bay Packers +2.5 | -104 | -110 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | Green Bay Packers ML | +117 | +113 | +1.0% |
| Total | Over 45.5 | -113 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward Chicago Bears since 10-03 12:02; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +2.0 here against +2.4 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus; moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.
Cleveland Browns at New York JetsBrowns at JetsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmJets -1should be Jets -1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Jets by 1, the Nasty Number says Jets by 1.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Jets by 1.5 to Jets by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -131 | +111 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | — | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
All 26 books
| Jets spread | Total (over) | Jets ML | Browns ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -131 | +111 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -107 50¢ | 40.5 -103 49¢ | — | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -110 | 40 -107 | -134 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -115 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -124 | 40 -107 | -131 | +111 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -110 | 40 -107 | -134 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 40 -107 | -134 | +110 |
| BetUS | -1 -120 | 40 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -114 | 40 -109 | -140 | +113 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -122 | +107 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 39.5 -118 | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 39.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 -105 | -126 | +108 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -110 | 39.5 -115 | -130 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1 -120 | 40 -104 | -131 | +111 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 40 -110 | -138 | +108 |
| Pinnacle | -1.5 -112 | 40 -105 | -130 | +115 |
| Polymarket | — | 40.5 | -122 | +117 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -109 | 40.5 -109 | -133 | +113 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 40.5 +100 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F, 89% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns +2.5, only $94 available; Under 40.5, only $18 available; New York Jets ML, only $213 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Dylan Parham (G, Jets) and 3 more.
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Cleveland Browns has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -121 |
| FPI | -2.0 | -122 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -109 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 40.0 | 38.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets -1.0 | -124 | -107 | -3.6% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | -125 | -113 | -2.5% |
| Total | Under 40.0 | -113 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.7 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh SteelersColts at SteelersNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmSteelers -1should be Steelers -2 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 1, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Steelers by 2 to Steelers by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
All 26 books
| Steelers spread | Total (over) | Steelers ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +123 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 44.5 -107 50¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -115 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1 -129 | 44.5 -115 | -148 | +128 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -109 | -139 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -115 | 44.5 -115 | -150 | +129 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 44.5 -113 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -102 | -134 | +114 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -114 | 44.5 -113 | -148 | +128 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | -148 | +116 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -115 | 44.5 -109 | -147 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 44.5 -104 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 44.5 -110 | -142 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 96% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Indianapolis Colts +2.5, only $419 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Will Mallory (TE, Colts), Jamel Dean (CB, Steelers), Derrick Harmon (DT, Steelers).
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Pittsburgh Steelers has had 9 days off against 7, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | PK | +100 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -101 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +102 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -103 |
| Market (22 books) | -1.0 | -142 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 | -105 | +108 | -3.1% |
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Steelers ML | -134 | -115 | -3.8% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -105 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Las Vegas Raiders at New England PatriotsRaiders at PatriotsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmPatriots -3.5should be Patriots -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Patriots by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Patriots by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -4 +102 | 45 -108 | -183 | +160 |
All 26 books
| Patriots spread | Total (over) | Patriots ML | Raiders ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +155 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 -112 51¢ | 45.5 | -191 64¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -107 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +165 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -110 | 45 -108 | -200 | +165 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +161 |
| betPARX | -4 -107 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetRivers | -4 -107 | 45 -113 | -195 | +160 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +159 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -185 | +160 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -114 | 45 -109 | -197 | +163 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -112 | 45.5 -103 | -194 | +168 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -112 | 45.5 -105 | -198 | +164 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -114 | 44.5 -115 | -196 | +164 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -115 | 45.5 -105 | -200 | +155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -195 | +160 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -107 | 45 -107 | -185 | +161 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -202 | +156 |
| Pinnacle | -4 +102 | 45 -108 | -183 | +160 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 -104 | 45.5 +104 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -109 | -193 | +163 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -185 | +155 |
Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F, 28% chance of rain.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders).
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -240 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -193 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -180 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -204 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.5 | -177 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 41.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | New England Patriots ML | -185 | -183 | -0.2% |
| Total | Under 45.0 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans SaintsVikings at SaintsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 12:00pmVikings -2should be Vikings -2.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 2, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 1.5 to Vikings by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 42 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 -104 | 42 -102 | +118 | -132 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Vikings ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2 -110 | 42 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -116 52¢ | 41.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetAnything | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +112 | -132 |
| BetMGM | +2 -108 | 42 -108 | +110 | -130 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -105 | +112 | -132 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -113 | 42 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetUS | +1 +100 | 42 -105 | +110 | -130 |
| Bovada | +2 -110 | 41.5 -115 | +115 | -135 |
| Caesars | +2 -110 | 42 -107 | +109 | -129 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -106 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -108 | 42.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2 -110 | 41.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +1.5 -104 | 42.5 -105 | +114 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -115 | +110 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +2 -106 | 42 -102 | +112 | -132 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 42 -110 | +106 | -135 |
| Pinnacle | +2 -104 | 42 -102 | +118 | -132 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 | 41.5 -108 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -110 | 41.5 -120 | +110 | -130 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -115 | 41.5 -120 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints +2.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Donovan Jackson (G, Vikings).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +116 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +101 |
| Sagarin | +5.0 | +201 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +191 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.0 | +117 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 40.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -2.0 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -125 | -123 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 42.0 | -115 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Arizona CardinalsLions at CardinalsNFL Sun 11 Oct, 3:25pmLions -5.5should be Lions -5.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 5.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 4 to Lions by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -105 | +218 | -256 |
All 26 books
| Cardinals spread | Total (over) | Cardinals ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +205 | -255 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 54.5 -112 51¢ | +208 31¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -107 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -108 | 54.5 -110 | +211 | -255 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -107 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetRivers | +6 -114 | 54 -112 | +195 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -255 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -114 | 54.5 -109 | +205 | -250 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -113 | +210 | -244 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -115 | +205 | -250 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 31¢ +203 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +210 | -260 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -118 | 54.5 -108 | +198 | -240 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +5.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +200 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -107 | +211 | -255 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +193 | -255 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -103 | 54.5 -105 | +218 | -256 |
| Polymarket | +5.5 +100 | 54.5 | +223 | -233 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -109 | 54.5 -110 | +202 | -244 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 54.5 -115 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for the Cardinals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Cardinals +5.5, only $257 available; Under 54.5, only $26 available; Over 54.5, only $154 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Hunter Long (TE, Cardinals), Paris Johnson Jr. (OT, Cardinals), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 3 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +5.5 | +222 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +196 |
| Sagarin | +7.0 | +275 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +111 |
| Market (22 books) | +5.5 | +214 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 53.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals +5.5 | -108 | -101 | -1.6% |
| Moneyline | Arizona Cardinals ML | +205 | +216 | -1.2% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 12
1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles RamsBills at RamsNFL Mon 12 Oct, 7:15pmBills +3should be Bills +3 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
All 26 books
| Rams spread | Total (over) | Rams ML | Bills ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -131 55¢ | 54.5 -107 50¢ | -167 61¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -111 | 54.5 -110 | -162 | +142 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -109 | 54 -112 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 54 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -159 | +134 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 54.5 -116 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +138 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -130 | 54.5 -110 | -165 | +130 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -105 | 54.5 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -164 | +128 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -105 | 54.5 -102 | -162 | +142 |
| Polymarket | — | — | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 54.5 -110 | -157 | +133 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -170 | +145 |
Marked: best for Bills, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Rams -3.5, only $170 available; Buffalo Bills +3.5, only $420 available; Over 54.5, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -131 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -129 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -107 |
| Massey | -2.0 | -116 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 52.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | +138 | +137 | +0.1% |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills +3.0 | -109 | -109 | +0.0% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks9-10-147%-1.69 units20 games
Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 11 of 20. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
5-4-1 · +0.63 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-150%+0.92 units2 games
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 2. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
0-1 · -1.00 unitsSep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty7-750%-0.52 units14 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 8 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
3-3 · -0.19 unitsSep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty28-3247%-6.85 units60 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 27 of 43. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 29 to Oct 5
7-3 · +3.52 unitsSep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 9-10-1 | 47.4% | -1.7 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-1 | 50.0% | +0.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 7-7 | 50.0% | -0.5 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 28-32 | 46.7% | -6.8 u | |
| Not Nasty | 233 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-07 16:19.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 198 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 11.12 | 289 |
| SP+ | 11.25 | 226 |
| FPI | 11.27 | 226 |
| Massey | 11.32 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.41 | 279 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.50 | 0.03 | 172 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 169 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 172 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 198 |
The line archive, 289 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 152 times, against it 99, and sat still 38. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 274 games. The close misses the final by 11.06, the open by 11.38, our raw ratings number by 12.55, Pinnacle's close by 11.03. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.83, MyBookie.ag 10.95, Caesars 11.03.
The Cut tracker. 13 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 3 made it; picks that got there by the market drifting away from the Nasty Number: 2-1, +0.84 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by none: 4-5, -0.35 units, +0.3 pts vs the close on 5; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-2, -0.11 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the price: 2-2, -0.15 units, -1.4 pts vs the close on 4.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 47 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 9.44 | 64 |
| Massey | 9.48 | 47 |
| FPI | 9.79 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 9.81 | 64 |
| nfelo | 9.93 | 63 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 47 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 47 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 46 |
The line archive, 64 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 35 times, against it 20, and sat still 9. Our side taken at the open finished 0.65 points better than the close on average over 59 games. The close misses the final by 9.66, the open by 9.71, our raw ratings number by 9.91, Pinnacle's close by 9.67. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.65, Polymarket 8.60, Bally Bet 9.15.
The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 0-1, -1.00 units.
The head start. 156 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 63 times, against it 40, average 0.37 points; the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped 4, went quiet 91.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-29, 2026-09-30, 2026-10-01, 2026-10-02, 2026-10-03, 2026-10-04, 2026-10-05, 2026-10-05). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 0% | 307 | 11.72 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 307 | 11.65 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 307 | 11.51 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 307 | 11.20 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Sagarin no vote | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 307 | 11.34 | 11.71 | 0-0 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
28 graded bets. Enough to start reading, not enough to be sure of.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 156 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 63 of 156 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 61 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 91. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Oklahoma State | Under | 52.1 | 52.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| UConn at Temple | Over | 52.8 | 54.5 | +1.7 | no call |
| USC at Penn State | Over | 55.2 | 55 | -0.2 | no call |
| Virginia Tech at California | California Golden +9.5 | 9.5 | 9 | +0.5 | no call |
| Wake Forest at NC State | Wake Forest Demon -2.9 | -2.9 | -4 | +1.1 | no call |
| Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Over | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals | Arizona +5 | 5 | 5.5 | -0.5 | no call |
| Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans | Tennessee +6.5 | 6.5 | 7 | -0.5 | same side |
| Minnesota Vikings at New Orleans Saints | Under | 42 | 42 | +0.0 | no call |
| New York Giants at Washington Commanders | New York +3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | +0.0 | same side |
| Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars | Philadelphia +5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | +0.0 | no call |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 240 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.0 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 177 | 13.6 | 55-66 (45%) | 35-36 (49%) |
| Massey | 179 | 13.0 | 39-45 (46%) | 15-24 (38%) |
| The blend | 182 | 13.0 | 40-47 (46%) | 18-25 (42%) |
NFL, 54 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 50 | 11.1 | 13-18 (42%) | 4-7 (36%) |
| FPI | 47 | 10.6 | 10-5 (67%) | 6-2 (75%) |
| The blend | 50 | 10.3 | 11-8 (58%) | 3-3 (50%) |
The detailed numbers
| We said | Bets | Predicted | Actual |
|---|---|---|---|
| 55-60% | 20 | 56% | 50% |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
We read 72 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 1 was worth a second look. 6 cleared every check.
What's changed since 3:58pm
- MovedUCF Knights at Oklahoma State Cowboys is now UCF Knights +10.5, was UCF Knights +11.0.
- OffBaltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons dropped off. It was Baltimore Ravens +3.5.
- MovedIowa Hawkeyes at Washington Huskies price moved from -115 to -110.
- OffPhiladelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguars dropped off. It was Philadelphia Eagles +7.5.
- OffNew Mexico State Aggies at Florida International Panthers dropped off. It was New Mexico State Aggies +7.0.
- OffTexas A&M Aggies at Missouri Tigers dropped off. It was Texas A&M Aggies +3.5.
- CloseUAB Blazers at Memphis Tigers is within half a point of the Cut: needs Memphis -13.5 at -110, or Memphis -14.0 at -103 (Kalshi under 49 cents).
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.8Philadelphia Eagles at Jacksonville Jaguarstoward Jacksonville Jaguarswith the public
- → 2.8Charlotte 49ers at North Texas Mean Greentoward North Texas Mean Greenwith the public
- → 2.5Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatswith the public
- → 2.4Stanford Cardinal at Notre Dame Fighting Irishtoward Notre Dame Fighting Irishwith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 3%, give or take 19% (one standard error, 245 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | 63 | 9.93 |
| The market | 353 | 10.81 |
| Massey | 216 | 10.92 |
| FPI | 274 | 11.01 |
| SP+ | 226 | 11.25 |
| Sagarin | 343 | 11.92 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 155-147 | 51% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 7-10 | 41% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 10-11 | 48% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 907719 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.29 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 444 | 1.58 |
| FanDuel | 472 | 1.53 |
| betPARX | 256 | 1.50 |
| Bally Bet | 256 | 1.49 |
| BetRivers | 464 | 1.47 |
| Kalshi | 262 | 1.45 |
| ReBet | 248 | 1.45 |
| BetOnline.ag | 433 | 1.40 |
| LowVig.ag | 423 | 1.40 |
| Courtside | 219 | 1.37 |
| MyBookie.ag | 357 | 1.37 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 256 | 1.26 |
| BetMGM | 431 | 1.25 |
| Fanatics | 401 | 1.24 |
| theScore Bet | 252 | 1.17 |
| Caesars | 348 | 1.16 |
| BetUS | 362 | 1.16 |
| Bovada | 432 | 1.13 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 62 | 1.10 |
| TOM | 417 | 1.08 |
| Pinnacle | 433 | 1.07 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 62 | 1.05 |
| Fliff | 209 | 1.04 |
| BetAnything | 237 | 0.92 |
| Polymarket | 103 | 0.80 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 3 days ago
- FPI NFL updated today
- Massey college updated today
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ unchanged for 9 days
- Sagarin updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
- nfelo updated today
A rating that hasn't moved in over a week during the season is probably stale at the source. Treat anything leaning on it carefully.