Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 3:21 pm · 2 Nasty Picks · TOM just now
College ratingsSP+Tue 4:30pmFPITue 4:30pmSagarinTue 8:15amMasseySat 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 12 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloThu 9:18amFPISat 6:02amSagarinMon 2:55pmMasseySat 6:02amAll 4 in the Sauce. 4 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 5 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Buffalo at Florida InternationalBuffalo +10-110+3.7%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Sat 8:02am at +10 -105. Now Buffalo +10 -110. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+10.5 open Sunnow +10Nasty Number +8.5Jacksonville State at OhioOhio PK-115 at TOM+3.1%Sat 5:00pm Buck's case ›Changed since the call Called Sat 3:10pm at PK -115. Now Ohio PK -115. LowVig.ag is still on PK. Pinnacle has -2.5.shrinking, 2.5 pts-2.5 open Sunnow PKNasty Number -0.5

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

2 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Middle Tennessee at MarshallMiddle Tennessee +13-110 · 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 · 1 point awayJets at TitansTitans PKshould be Titans -1 · getting 1 ptNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Buck

Buck's Take

2 Nasty Picks on the counter Saturday. Read the receipt before you bet it.

Jets at Titans, Titans PK. Every system has Titans by 3; the market has it a pick'em. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

Middle Tennessee at Marshall, Middle Tennessee +13. Every system has Marshall by 6.5; the market has Marshall by 13. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies, Arkansas at Utah Over 55.5 the strongest at 4.2% after the price. Totals haven't beaten the closing number in four seasons, so that's where they stay. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Arkansas at Utah, Over 55.5, down 1 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's Jets at Titans, Titans PK. The ratings make it Titans by 3. Don't tell anyone I said so.

Buck

Today

40 gamesBest: Buffalo +10.0, Nastiest
GameThe call
Buffalo Bulls at Florida International PanthersBuffalo at Florida International
CFB 5:00pm
Buffalo +10
should be Buffalo +8.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -110 at TOM
NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nastiest. Take Buffalo +10.0 at -110 at TOM. Market says Florida International by 10, the Nasty Number says Florida International by 8.5.

The spread

← more Buffalo than the bookmore Florida International →
Market
Florida International by 10TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Florida International by 0.59.7 pts our side
FPI
Florida International by 2.57.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Florida International by 73.1 pts our side
Massey
Florida International by 2.57.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida International by 8.51.6 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Buffalo, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida International by 8.5opened Florida International by 10.5now Florida International by 10SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Buffalo is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
453 pts under the market
Massey
48.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.71.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.7opened 48.9now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points since it opened, from 48.9 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLBuffalo ML
TOM-10 -11048 -107-400+310
Kalshi-10.547.5-381 78¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-10 -10848 +101-399+321
All 14 books
Florida International spreadTotal (over)Florida International MLBuffalo ML
TOM-10 -11048 -107-400+310
Kalshi-10.547.5-381 78¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-10 -11047.5 -108-400+320
BetOnline.ag-10 -11048 -107-400+316
BetRivers-10 -11047.5 -110-480+320
BetUS-10 -11047 -110-370+295
Bovada-10 -11047.5 -105-415+310
Caesars-10 -11447.5 -107-400+305
DraftKings-10 -11247.5 -105-410+320
Fanatics-10.5 -10547.5 -110-425+325
FanDuel-10.5 -10647.5 -108-450+340
LowVig.ag-10 -10648 -105-400+316
MyBookie.ag-10 -11047.5 -110-420+310
Pinnacle-10 -10848 +101-399+321

Marked: best for Buffalo, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +10.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look.
The play
Buffalo to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 48.0 · -113 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 84°F, 49% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Florida International Panthers -10.5, only $6 available; Over 47.5, only $480 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida International by 8.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-103
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-7.0-208
Massey-2.5-127
Market (12 books)-10.0-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.046.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +10.0-110-128+3.7%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+310+247priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.0-113-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: moneyline -383 here against -336 consensus.

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio BobcatsJacksonville State at Ohio
CFB 5:00pm
Ohio PK
should be Ohio -0.5 · getting 0.5 pts · -115 at TOM · was -2.5
Nasty PickDon't addBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Ohio PK at -115 at TOM. TOM is 2.5 points off Pinnacle. The sharp books have moved and this number hasn't. Numbers this far off the pack have lost to the pack about 55% of the time over four seasons. No opinion about the game needed.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Ohio →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Jacksonville State by 77.2 pts against us
FPI
Ohio by 2.52.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 11 pts against us
Massey
Ohio by 2.52.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio by 0.50.3 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Ohio. SP+ at Jacksonville State by 7 and Sagarin at Jacksonville State by 1 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio by 0.5opened Ohio by 2.5now a pick'emSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Ohio is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.63.9 pts under the market
Massey
53.42.9 pts over the market
Weather
-1.071% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
491.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49opened 51.6now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.1 points since it opened, from 51.6 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLJacksonville State ML
TOMPK -11550.5 -105
Pinnacle-2.5 +10250 -106-117+104
All 13 books
Ohio spreadTotal (over)Ohio MLJacksonville State ML
TOMPK -11550.5 -105
BetMGM-1.5 -10850.5 -105-120+100
BetOnline.agPK -11550.5 -105
BetRivers-2.5 -11350.5 -110-137+112
BetUS-1 -11050.5 -105
Bovada-1.5 -10550 -110-120+100
Caesars-1.5 -11250.5 -106-124+105
DraftKings-1.5 -11049.5 -112-120+100
Fanatics-1.5 -11050 -110-120+100
FanDuel-2.5 -10550.5 -108-128+106
LowVig.agPK -11150.5 -103
MyBookie.ag-2 -11050 -110-124+102
Pinnacle-2.5 +10250 -106-117+104

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio PK · -115 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ohio to win · -120
We make it 51 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 51 cents fair, a play under 46.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 76°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread PK here against -2.0 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Ohio PK while Pinnacle is at Ohio by 2.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail
We settle onOhio by 0.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+216
FPI-2.5-127
Sagarin+1.0+111
Massey-2.5-128
Market (12 books)PK-111
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.549.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio Bobcats PK-115-103-2.8%
MoneylineOhio Bobcats ML-120-103-3.9%
TotalUnder 50.5-115-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against -2.0 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.1 consensus.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering HerdMiddle Tennessee at Marshall
CFB 6:00pm
Middle Tennessee +13
should be Middle Tennessee +11 · getting 2 pts at TOM · was +14.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Middle Tennessee +13.0: all 4 ratings our side, 1.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Marshall →
Market
Marshall by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Marshall by 8.54.4 pts our side
FPI
Marshall by 48.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Marshall by 11.51.3 pts our side
Massey
Marshall by 2.510.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Marshall by 112 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Middle Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Marshall by 11opened Marshall by 16now Marshall by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Middle Tennessee is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
65.49.4 pts over the market
Massey
551 pts under the market
Nasty Number
60.24.2 pts over the market
Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.2opened 57.5now 56SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLMiddle Tennessee ML
TOM-13 -11056 -110-500+370
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢55.5 -112 51¢-490 82¢+426 18¢
Pinnacle-12.5 -11156 -105-577+438
All 14 books
Marshall spreadTotal (over)Marshall MLMiddle Tennessee ML
TOM-13 -11056 -110-500+370
Kalshi-13.5 -103 49¢55.5 -112 51¢-490 82¢+426 18¢
BetMGM-13 -10855.5 -110-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11056 -110-500+383
BetRivers-13.5 -11056 -110-625+425
BetUS-13 -11055.5 -110-500+390
Bovada-13 -10556 +100-600+425
Caesars-12.5 -11255.5 -110-560+400
DraftKings-12.5 -11255.5 -110-535+400
Fanatics-13 -11055.5 -110-550+410
FanDuel-13.5 -10555.5 -112-530+390
LowVig.ag-13 -10656 -108-500+383
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11056 -110-561+400
Pinnacle-12.5 -11156 -105-577+438

Marked: best for Middle Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Middle Tennessee to win · +370 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +13.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Middle Tennessee, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +14.0 or better. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMarshall by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-252
FPI-4.0-154
Sagarin-11.5-361
Massey-2.5-132
Market (12 books)-13.0-478
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.060.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +13.0-110-117+1.6%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+370+332priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-06 20:28; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -12.7 consensus.

San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA BruinsSan Diego State at UCLA
CFB 6:15pm
Under 54.5
should be 53.6 · getting 0.9 pts · was 55
A Little Nasty · UnderMoved our way · 2.9 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 54.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 2.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans San Diego State too: market says UCLA by 13, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 11.5, but at -107 that's too thin.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore UCLA →
Market
UCLA by 13TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
UCLA by 8.54.7 pts our side
FPI
UCLA by 67 pts our side
Sagarin
UCLA by 163.1 pts against us
Massey
UCLA by 310.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
UCLA by 11.51.7 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean San Diego State. Sagarin at UCLA by 16 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 11.5opened UCLA by 11now UCLA by 13SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.92.6 pts under the market
Massey
51.23.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.62.9 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 51.6now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-13 -11354.5 -110-510+360
Pinnacle-13.5 -10654 -108-538+413
All 13 books
UCLA spreadTotal (over)UCLA MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-13 -11354.5 -110-510+360
BetMGM-13 -11054.5 -108-500+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11354.5 -110-510+390
BetRivers-13.5 -11554.5 -112-715+440
BetUS-13 -11554.5 -110-510+395
Bovada-13.5 -11054 -110-575+400
Caesars-13 -11254.5 -109-500+380
DraftKings-12.5 -11254.5 -108-500+380
Fanatics-13.5 -11054 -110-525+390
FanDuel-13.5 -11054.5 -106-630+450
LowVig.ag-13 -10954.5 -108-510+390
MyBookie.ag-13.5 -11054 -110-575+400
Pinnacle-13.5 -10654 -108-538+413

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +13.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
San Diego State to win · +360 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 1.7 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

DraftKings still has UCLA -12.5 while Pinnacle is at UCLA by 13.5.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-244
FPI-6.0-190
Sagarin-16.0-616
Massey-3.0-135
Market (12 books)-13.0-488
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +13.0-107-114+1.6%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+360+341priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-09 01:03; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.4 consensus; total 54.5 here against 54.2 consensus.

South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green WaveSouth Alabama at Tulane
CFB 6:00pm
Over 48
should be 49 · getting 1 pt · was 49.5
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 2.9 ptsBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tulane by 9, the Nasty Number says Tulane by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 9TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
Tulane by 62.8 pts our side
FPI
Tulane by 11.52.3 pts against us
Sagarin
Tulane by 10.51.5 pts against us
Massey
Tulane by 36.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Tulane by 90.2 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean South Alabama. FPI at Tulane by 11.5 and Sagarin at Tulane by 10.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulane by 9opened Tulane by 10.5now Tulane by 9SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM, Over -107
The Four
SP+ pace
52.94.9 pts over the market
Massey
49.61.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.33.3 pts over the market
Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.3opened 50.9now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-9 -11348 -107-360+270
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢47.5 -121 53¢-340 76¢+296 24¢
Pinnacle-10 +10348.5 +101-372+303
All 14 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-9 -11348 -107-360+270
Kalshi-9.5 -116 52¢47.5 -121 53¢-340 76¢+296 24¢
BetMGM-9.5 -11248.5 -105-350+290
BetOnline.ag-9 -11348 -107-360+289
BetRivers-9.5 -11048.5 -110-385+280
BetUS-9 -11048 -105-360+290
Bovada-9.5 -10548 -110-390+295
Caesars-10 -10548 -106-380+290
DraftKings-9.5 -11548.5 -112-380+300
Fanatics-9.5 -11048 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -10848.5 -104-350+275
LowVig.ag-9 -10948 -105-360+289
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11048 -110-391+295
Pinnacle-10 +10348.5 +101-372+303

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +9.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · +270 at TOM
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 24.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.3 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.0-193
FPI-11.5-342
Sagarin-10.5-311
Massey-3.0-134
Market (12 books)-9.0-344
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.051.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +9.0-107-112+1.1%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+270+258+0.9%
TotalOver 48.0-107-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.7 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.4 consensus.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah UtesArkansas at Utah
CFB 9:15pm
Over 55.5
should be 58.2 · getting 2.7 pts · was 55
A Little Nasty · OverMoved our way · 1 ptBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Utah by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Utah by 11. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Utah →
Market
Utah by 11.5TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
Utah by 120.4 pts against us
FPI
Utah by 110.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Utah by 10.51.1 pts our side
Massey
Utah by 38.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Utah by 110.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Arkansas. SP+ at Utah by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 11opened Utah by 13.5now Utah by 11.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Arkansas is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
64.79.2 pts over the market
Massey
59.43.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
626.5 pts over the market
Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 62opened 56.5now 55.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLArkansas ML
TOM-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+340
Kalshi-13.5 +101 48¢55.5 -112 51¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
Pinnacle-12 -11455.5 -109-501+389
All 13 books
Utah spreadTotal (over)Utah MLArkansas ML
TOM-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+340
Kalshi-13.5 +101 48¢55.5 -112 51¢-490 82¢+398 19¢
BetMGM-13 -11255.5 -108-475+375
BetOnline.ag-11.5 -11755.5 -110-470+364
BetRivers-12.5 -10955.5 -109-590+400
BetUS-11.5 -11555.5 -110-470+370
Bovada-12.5 -11555.5 -110-525+375
Caesars-11.5 -11755.5 -112-500+380
DraftKings-12.5 -11055.5 -110-500+380
Fanatics-12.5 -11055.5 -110-500+375
FanDuel-12.5 -11055.5 -110-500+385
MyBookie.ag-12.5 -11055.5 -110-526+370
Pinnacle-12 -11455.5 -109-501+389

Marked: best for Arkansas, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +11.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +340 at TOM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 59. That's 6.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward Arkansas, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 1140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-368
FPI-11.0-335
Sagarin-10.5-309
Massey-3.0-136
Market (11 books)-11.5-450
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.562.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +11.5-103-106+0.8%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+340+339priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-131shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread -11.5 here against -12.1 consensus.

Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow JacketsTennessee at Georgia Tech
CFB 6:00pm
Over 55.5
should be 56.2 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 55.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Tennessee by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 11.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Tennessee than the bookmore Georgia Tech →
Market
Tennessee by 12.5TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 16
FPI
Tennessee by 9.5
Sagarin
Tennessee by 8.5
Massey
Georgia Tech by 1.5
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 11.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 11.5opened Tennessee by 13now Tennessee by 12.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 13 to Tennessee by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
58.73.2 pts over the market
Massey
57.11.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.92.4 pts over the market
Over 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 55.3now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLTennessee ML
TOM+12.5 -11255.5 -110+360-490
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢55.5 -107 50¢+398 19¢-458 81¢
Pinnacle+12.5 -10956 -103+385-494
All 14 books
Georgia Tech spreadTotal (over)Georgia Tech MLTennessee ML
TOM+12.5 -11255.5 -110+360-490
Kalshi+11.5 -103 49¢55.5 -107 50¢+398 19¢-458 81¢
BetMGM+12 -10855.5 -110+380-500
BetOnline.ag+12.5 -11255.5 -110+377-490
BetRivers+12 -11255.5 -110+390-560
BetUS+12.5 -11055.5 -110+382-490
Bovada+12 -11055.5 -110+370-510
Caesars+12.5 -11355.5 -113+380-500
DraftKings+12.5 -11255.5 -110+370-485
Fanatics+12.5 -11055.5 -110+375-500
FanDuel+11.5 -10455.5 -110+375-500
LowVig.ag+12 -11055.5 -108+377-490
MyBookie.ag+12 -11055.5 -110+360-500
Pinnacle+12.5 -10956 -103+385-494

Marked: best for the Georgia Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech +12.5 · -112 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · +360 at TOM
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 55.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 22% chance of rain.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++16.0+608
FPI+9.5+283
Sagarin+8.5+244
Massey-1.5-115
Market (12 books)+12.5+376
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.557.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets +12.5-112-109-0.8%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML+360+349priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic OwlsNavy at Florida Atlantic
CFB 6:30pm
Over 59.5
should be 60.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 58.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 4, the Nasty Number says Navy by 5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →
Market
Navy by 4TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Navy by 13.5
FPI
Navy by 12.5
Sagarin
Navy by 5
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 1.5
Nasty Number
Navy by 51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Navy by 5opened Navy by 6now Navy by 4SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Navy by 6 to Navy by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Over -107
The Four
SP+ pace
67.78.2 pts over the market
Massey
622.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
64.95.4 pts over the market
Over 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 64.9opened 58.5now 59.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLNavy ML
TOM+4 -11059.5 -107+160-190
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Pinnacle+4 -10859.5 -108+161-184
All 13 books
Florida Atlantic spreadTotal (over)Florida Atlantic MLNavy ML
TOM+4 -11059.5 -107+160-190
Kalshi+4.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
BetMGM+4.5 -11059.5 -108+160-200
BetOnline.ag+4 -11059.5 -107+165-190
BetRivers+4.5 -11358.5 -114+150-195
BetUS+4 -11059.5 -110+163-190
Caesars+4 -11259.5 -110+165-197
DraftKings+4 -10859.5 -110+164-198
Fanatics+4 -11059.5 -110+160-195
FanDuel+4.5 -11059.5 -110+160-194
LowVig.ag+4 -10659.5 -105+165-190
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11059.5 -110+163-202
Pinnacle+4 -10859.5 -108+161-184

Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -4.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Navy to win · -190 at TOM
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.5 · -107 at TOM
SP+ projects 68 and Massey projects 62. That's 5.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -107 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 83°F, 38% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onNavy by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++13.5+451
FPI+12.5+396
Sagarin+5.0+174
Massey-1.5-115
Market (11 books)+4.0+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.564.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen -4.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML-190-170-2.5%
TotalOver 59.5-107-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Memphis Tigers at Boise State BroncosMemphis at Boise State
CFB 5:00pm
Memphis +8.5
should be Memphis +8 · getting 0.5 pts · was +9
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Boise State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 8. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 8.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 5.53.2 pts our side
FPI
Boise State by 80.6 pts our side
Sagarin
Boise State by 9.50.9 pts against us
Massey
Boise State by 26.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Boise State by 80.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Memphis. Sagarin at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 8opened Boise State by 8.5now Boise State by 8.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
616.5 pts over the market
Massey
57.12.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.14.6 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.1opened 55.1now 54.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Boise State spreadTotal (over)Boise State MLMemphis ML
TOM-8.5 -11554.5 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-9 -10555.5 +101-343+282
All 13 books
Boise State spreadTotal (over)Boise State MLMemphis ML
TOM-8.5 -11554.5 -110-330+255
BetMGM-9 -11255.5 -102-350+275
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -11555 -110-330+267
BetRivers-8.5 -11255.5 -109-360+270
BetUS-8.5 -11555 -110-330+270
Bovada-9 -11055 -110-350+275
Caesars-8.5 -11355.5 -106-360+280
DraftKings-9.5 -11254.5 -118-380+300
Fanatics-8.5 -11055 -110-350+275
FanDuel-9.5 -10555.5 -106-335+265
LowVig.ag-8.5 -11155 -108-330+267
MyBookie.ag-9 -11055 -110-350+270
Pinnacle-9 -10555.5 +101-343+282

Marked: best for Memphis, higher payout on each moneyline.

Memphis +8.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look.
A Little Nasty
Memphis to win · +255 at TOM
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 28. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25.
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.6 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Memphis +8.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-176
FPI-8.0-234
Sagarin-9.5-275
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-8.5-316
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.559.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMemphis Tigers +8.5-105-121+3.6%
MoneylineMemphis Tigers ML+255+234+1.8%
TotalOver 54.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM: spread -8.5 here against -8.9 consensus; total 54.5 here against 55.3 consensus.

Iowa State Cyclones at Iowa HawkeyesIowa State at Iowa
CFB 6:30pm
Iowa -14
should be Iowa -14.5 · getting 0.5 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa by 14, the Nasty Number says Iowa by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Iowa by 14TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Iowa by 173.1 pts our side
FPI
Iowa by 14on the market
Sagarin
Iowa by 17.53.4 pts our side
Massey
Iowa by 2.511.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Iowa by 14.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Iowa. Massey at Iowa by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa by 14.5opened Iowa by 14.5now Iowa by 14SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Iowa's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
40.81.7 pts under the market
Massey
44.62.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.7on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.7opened 41.3now 42.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.2 points since it opened, from 41.3 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLIowa State ML
TOM-14 -11042.5 -115-600+430
Pinnacle-14 -11342.5 -108-615+461
All 13 books
Iowa spreadTotal (over)Iowa MLIowa State ML
TOM-14 -11042.5 -115-600+430
BetMGM-14 -11042.5 -110-600+450
BetOnline.ag-14 -11042.5 -115-600+446
BetRivers-14.5 -11242 -110-715+460
BetUS-14 -11042.5 -115-600+450
Bovada-14.5 -10542.5 -110-650+450
Caesars-14 -10942.5 -113-675+475
DraftKings-14 -11242.5 -108-600+440
Fanatics-14.5 -10542.5 -110-650+475
FanDuel-14.5 -10242.5 -112-650+460
LowVig.ag-14 -10642.5 -114-600+446
MyBookie.ag-14 -11042.5 -110-752+500
Pinnacle-14 -11342.5 -108-615+461

Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · -600 at TOM
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 42.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa -14.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -483 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIowa by 14.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-700
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-17.5-728
Massey-2.5-131
Market (12 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.542.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes -14.0-110-114+0.9%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML-600-493priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 42.5-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: moneyline -574 here against -483 consensus.

UCF Knights at Pittsburgh PanthersUCF at Pittsburgh
CFB 3:45pm
No bet
market says Pittsburgh by 7, our data says Pittsburgh by 7
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Pittsburgh by 7, the Nasty Number says Pittsburgh by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Pittsburgh →
Market
Pittsburgh by 7TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
Pittsburgh by 6.5
FPI
Pittsburgh by 9
Sagarin
Pittsburgh by 8.5
Massey
Pittsburgh by 2.5
Nasty Number
Pittsburgh by 70.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Pittsburgh by 7opened Pittsburgh by 7now Pittsburgh by 7MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.24.3 pts under the market
Massey
582.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.60.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.6opened 57now 55.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLUCF ML
TOM-7 -11755.5 -110-270+210
Kalshi-7.5 -116 52¢55.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-7 -11555 -111-282+238
All 11 books
Pittsburgh spreadTotal (over)Pittsburgh MLUCF ML
TOM-7 -11755.5 -110-270+210
Kalshi-7.5 -116 52¢55.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
BetMGM-7.5 -10855.5 -108-285+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11755.5 -110-270+222
BetUS-7 -11556 -110-280+235
Caesars-7.5 -10855.5 -110
DraftKings-7.5 -10855.5 -108-298+240
FanDuel-7.5 -11055.5 -110-315+250
LowVig.ag-7 -11155.5 -108-270+222
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11156.5 -111-286+215
Pinnacle-7 -11555 -111-282+238

Marked: best for the Pittsburgh side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh -7.0 · -117 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Pittsburgh to win · -270 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Not Nasty
the Under 55.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 84°F, 34% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $188 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onPittsburgh by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-198
FPI-9.0-261
Sagarin-8.5-245
Massey-2.5-131
Market (9 books)-7.0-258
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.554.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers -7.0-117+110-6.2%
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML-270-213-4.9%
TotalUnder 55.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Campbell Fighting Camels at Florida GatorsCampbell at Florida
CFB 4:30pm
No bet
market says Florida by 51, our data says Florida by 49.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida by 51.

The spread

← more Campbell than the bookmore Florida →
Market
Florida by 51TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Florida by 45.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 49.51.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 49.5opened Florida by 51now Florida by 51Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLCampbell ML
TOM-51 -11066 -115
Kalshi66.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-51.5 -11466.5 -116
All 12 books
Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLCampbell ML
TOM-51 -11066 -115
Kalshi66.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-51 -11066.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-51 -11066 -115
BetRivers-51 -11066.5 -107
Bovada-51.5 -11567 -110
Caesars-51.5 -11066.5 -114
DraftKings-50.5 -11266.5 -110
Fanatics-50.5 -11066.5 -110
FanDuel-50.5 -11566.5 -110
LowVig.ag-51 -11066 -115
Pinnacle-51.5 -11466.5 -116

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Campbell +51.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 65 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 86°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -50.5, now -51.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Florida).

TOM: spread -51.0 here against -51.2 consensus.

TOM: total 66.0 here against 66.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 49.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Campbell
FPIdoesn't rate Campbell
Sagarin-45.5
Masseyrates Campbell and Florida on different scales
Market (10 books)-51.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points66.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCampbell Fighting Camels +51.0-110-184+12.5%

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Florida Gators since 09-10 14:33.

TOM: spread -51.0 here against -51.2 consensus; total 66.0 here against 66.5 consensus.

The line is -51.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

West Georgia Wolves at Arkansas State Red WolvesWest Georgia at Arkansas State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Arkansas State by 32.5, our data says Arkansas State by 27
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Arkansas State by 32.5.

The spread

← more West Georgia than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 32.5TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Arkansas State by 14.5
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 275.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas State by 27opened Arkansas State by 32.5now Arkansas State by 32.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arkansas State spreadTotal (over)Arkansas State MLWest Georgia ML
TOM-32.5 -11556 -105
Pinnacle-31.5 -10856.5 -104
All 12 books
Arkansas State spreadTotal (over)Arkansas State MLWest Georgia ML
TOM-32.5 -11556 -105
BetMGM-32 -11056.5 -105
BetOnline.ag-32.5 -11556 -105
BetRivers-31.5 -11457 -113
Bovada-31.5 -11056 -110
Caesars-31.5 -11256.5 -106
DraftKings-31.5 -11256.5 -108+3000
Fanatics-32 -11056 -110+3000
FanDuel-31.5 -11556.5 -110
LowVig.ag-32.5 -11556 -105
MyBookie.ag56.5 -110
Pinnacle-31.5 -10856.5 -104

Marked: best for the Arkansas State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Georgia +32.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
West Georgia to win · +3000
We make it 3 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -28.5, now -31.5 (the market moved 3.1 toward Arkansas State).

The ratings sit 18 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.6 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 2730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate West Georgia
FPIdoesn't rate West Georgia
Sagarin-14.5-498
Masseyrates West Georgia and Arkansas State on different scales
Market (11 books)-32.5-3222
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWest Georgia Wolves +32.5-105-110+1.2%
MoneylineWest Georgia Wolves ML+3000+2937priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 3.1 toward Arkansas State Red Wolves since 09-10 10:21.

TOM: spread -32.5 here against -31.6 consensus; total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

The line is -32.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Bowling Green Falcons at Nebraska CornhuskersBowling Green at Nebraska
CFB 6:00pm
Under 50
should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 52
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Nebraska by 31.5.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 31.5TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 27
FPI
Nebraska by 28.5
Sagarin
Nebraska by 32
Massey
Nebraska by 4
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 30.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 30.5opened Nebraska by 28.5now Nebraska by 31.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Nebraska by 28.5 to Nebraska by 31.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
44.15.9 pts under the market
Massey
46.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.14.9 pts under the market
Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.1opened 51.9now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1.9 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.9 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLBowling Green ML
TOM-31.5 -10750 -105
Kalshi50.5 +105 47¢+3021
Pinnacle-30.5 -11250 -104
All 14 books
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLBowling Green ML
TOM-31.5 -10750 -105
Kalshi50.5 +105 47¢+3021
BetMGM-30.5 -11049.5 -108+2800
BetOnline.ag-31.5 -10750 -105+1787
BetRivers-30.5 -10950.5 -109
BetUS-31 -11050 -110
Bovada-30 -11049.5 -110+1600
Caesars-30.5 -11049.5 -115+1600
DraftKings-30.5 -11549.5 -108+2000
Fanatics-30.5 -11049.5 -110+2500
FanDuel-30.5 -11050.5 -108
LowVig.ag-31 -10650 -103+1787
MyBookie.ag-30.5 -11049.5 -110+1600
Pinnacle-30.5 -11250 -104

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green +31.5 · -113 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +1888
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 50.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. That's 4.9 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -29.5, now -30.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Nebraska).

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 30.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-27.0-2949
FPI-28.5-3564
Sagarin-32.0
Massey-4.0-151
Market (12 books)-31.5-2069
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.045.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +31.5-113+140-11.3%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+1888+5013priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.0-115-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-08 21:00; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: spread -31.5 here against -30.6 consensus.

The line is -31.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Carolina Catamounts at Cincinnati BearcatsWestern Carolina at Cincinnati
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Cincinnati by 35.5, our data says Cincinnati by 32.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Cincinnati by 35.5.

The spread

← more Western Carolina than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Cincinnati by 35.5TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Cincinnati by 26
Nasty Number
Cincinnati by 32.52.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cincinnati by 32.5opened Cincinnati by 36.5now Cincinnati by 35.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Cincinnati by 36.5 to Cincinnati by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLWestern Carolina ML
TOM-35.5 -11561.5 -115
Kalshi61.5
Pinnacle-36.5 -11060.5 -110
All 12 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLWestern Carolina ML
TOM-35.5 -11561.5 -115
Kalshi61.5
BetMGM-36 -10860.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-35.5 -11561.5 -115
BetRivers-37 -11261 -113
Bovada-36.5 -11060.5 -110
Caesars-35.5 -11560.5 -115
DraftKings-35.5 -11261.5 -105
Fanatics-36 -11061.5 -110+3000
FanDuel-35.5 -11061.5 -106+2400
LowVig.ag-35.5 -11561.5 -115
Pinnacle-36.5 -11060.5 -110

Marked: best for the Cincinnati side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Carolina +35.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Western Carolina to win · +3604
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F, 33% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus.

TOM: total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCincinnati by 32.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Western Carolina
FPIdoesn't rate Western Carolina
Sagarin-26.0-2565
Masseyrates Western Carolina and Cincinnati on different scales
Market (10 books)-35.5-3170
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Carolina Catamounts +35.5-105+117-5.1%
MoneylineWestern Carolina Catamounts ML+3604+7497priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -36.2 consensus; total 61.5 here against 60.8 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Southern Utah Thunderbirds at Colorado State RamsSouthern Utah at Colorado State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Colorado State by 20.5, our data says Colorado State by 18
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Colorado State by 20.5.

The spread

← more Southern Utah than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
Colorado State by 20.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Colorado State by 9
Nasty Number
Colorado State by 182.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colorado State by 18opened Colorado State by 20.5now Colorado State by 20.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLSouthern Utah ML
TOM-20.5 -11057.5 -112
Pinnacle-20.5 -10757 -113-1474+739
All 12 books
Colorado State spreadTotal (over)Colorado State MLSouthern Utah ML
TOM-20.5 -11057.5 -112
BetMGM-20 -11057.5 -110-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -112
BetRivers-20.5 -11356.5 -112+1000
Bovada-20.5 -11057 -115-1500+775
Caesars-20.5 -10757.5 -113-1450+750
DraftKings-20.5 -10257.5 -105-1350+800
Fanatics-20.5 -11057.5 -110-1400+850
FanDuel-20.5 -11257.5 -110-1700+890
LowVig.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -112
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11057.5 -110-1205+630
Pinnacle-20.5 -10757 -113-1474+739

Marked: best for the Colorado State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Utah +20.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Southern Utah to win · +800
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onColorado State by 1821% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Southern Utah
FPIdoesn't rate Southern Utah
Sagarin-9.0-258
Masseyrates Southern Utah and Colorado State on different scales
Market (11 books)-20.5-818
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Utah Thunderbirds +20.5-110+102-2.8%
MoneylineSouthern Utah Thunderbirds ML+800+793priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.2 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia State Panthers at Kennesaw State OwlsGeorgia State at Kennesaw State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Kennesaw State by 8.5, our data says Kennesaw State by 8.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Kennesaw State by 8.5, the Nasty Number says Kennesaw State by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →
Market
Kennesaw State by 8.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Kennesaw State by 17.5
FPI
Kennesaw State by 9.5
Sagarin
Kennesaw State by 8.5
Massey
Kennesaw State by 2
Nasty Number
Kennesaw State by 8.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kennesaw State by 8.5opened Kennesaw State by 9.5now Kennesaw State by 8.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Kennesaw State by 9.5 to Kennesaw State by 8.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.32.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.4on the market
Nasty Number
56.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.9opened 50.2now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 5.2 points since it opened, from 50.2 to 55.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kennesaw State spreadTotal (over)Kennesaw State MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-8.5 -10555.5 -112-315+240
Pinnacle-9 +10055 -117-332+275
All 13 books
Kennesaw State spreadTotal (over)Kennesaw State MLGeorgia State ML
TOM-8.5 -10555.5 -112-315+240
BetMGM-7.5 -11855.5 -108-300+250
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -10555.5 -112-315+256
BetRivers-8 -11354.5 -115-335+255
BetUS-8.5 -10555.5 -110-315+258
Bovada-8 -11055.5 -110-340+270
Caesars-8.5 -10655.5 -110-325+260
DraftKings-8.5 -10555.5 -110-310+250
Fanatics-8 -11055.5 -110-330+260
FanDuel-7.5 -11055.5 -106-310+245
LowVig.ag-8.5 -10155.5 -110-315+256
MyBookie.ag-8.5 -11055.5 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-9 +10055 -117-332+275

Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State -8.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · -315 at TOM
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.5 · -112 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -9.0, now -8.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia State).

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKennesaw State by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.5-738
FPI-9.5-274
Sagarin-8.5-245
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-8.5-301
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.556.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls -8.5-105+112-4.1%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML-315-252-4.3%
TotalOver 55.5-112-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-07 16:45; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Illinois State Redbirds at Northern Illinois HuskiesIllinois State at Northern Illinois
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Illinois State by 2.5, our data says Illinois State by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Illinois State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois State by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Illinois State than the bookmore Northern Illinois →
Market
Illinois State by 2.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Illinois State by 4
Nasty Number
Illinois State by 30.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois State by 3opened Illinois State by 5.5now Illinois State by 2.5Sat

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Illinois State by 5.5 to Illinois State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Northern Illinois spreadTotal (over)Northern Illinois MLIllinois State ML
TOM+2.5 -10549 -105+110-140
Pinnacle+2.5 -10148 -108+118-141
All 12 books
Northern Illinois spreadTotal (over)Northern Illinois MLIllinois State ML
TOM+2.5 -10549 -105+110-140
BetMGM+3 -11548.5 -102+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10549 -105
BetRivers+3 -11547.5 -115+120-148
Bovada+2.5 +10048 -110+120-140
Caesars+2.5 -10447.5 -120+123-150
DraftKings+2.5 +10047.5 -115+124-148
Fanatics+3 -11548 -110+120-145
FanDuel+3.5 -13047.5 -115+122-146
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10549 -105
MyBookie.ag+3 -110+119-152
Pinnacle+2.5 -10148 -108+118-141

Marked: best for the Northern Illinois side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois State -2.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Illinois State to win · -140 at TOM
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.
Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Northern Illinois). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois State by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Illinois State
FPIdoesn't rate Illinois State
Sagarin+4.0+155
Masseyrates Illinois State and Northern Illinois on different scales
Market (11 books)+2.5+115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois State Redbirds -2.5-115-114-0.2%
MoneylineIllinois State Redbirds ML-140-137-0.5%

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Northern Illinois Huskies since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.0 consensus; moneyline +115 here against +129 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State BearsLindenwood at Missouri State
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Missouri State by 16.5, our data says Missouri State by 15
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Missouri State by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Missouri State by 15. 1.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Lindenwood than the bookmore Missouri State →
Market
Missouri State by 16.5TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Missouri State by 10.5
Nasty Number
Missouri State by 151.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Missouri State by 15opened Missouri State by 16.5now Missouri State by 16.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLLindenwood ML
TOM-16.5 -10553.5 -105-850+550
Pinnacle-16.5 -11752.5 -111-899+533
All 11 books
Missouri State spreadTotal (over)Missouri State MLLindenwood ML
TOM-16.5 -10553.5 -105-850+550
BetMGM-16.5 -10852.5 -110-800+625
BetOnline.ag-16.5 -10553.5 -105
BetRivers-16 -11453.5 -112-1250+700
Bovada-17 +10052.5 -110-850+550
Caesars-16.5 -11053 -110-950+550
DraftKings-16.5 -11252.5 -115-850+575
Fanatics-16.5 -11552.5 -110-850+575
FanDuel-16.5 -11053.5 -110-1000+640
MyBookie.ag-17 -11053.5 -110-901+520
Pinnacle-16.5 -11752.5 -111-899+533

Marked: best for the Missouri State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lindenwood +16.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Lindenwood to win · +550 at TOM
We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -16.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -813 here against -591 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMissouri State by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Lindenwood
FPIdoesn't rate Lindenwood
Sagarin-10.5-320
Masseyrates Lindenwood and Missouri State on different scales
Market (10 books)-16.5-813
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLindenwood Lions +16.5-115+100-3.5%
MoneylineLindenwood Lions ML+550+520priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Lindenwood Lions since 09-08 16:04; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 52.7 consensus; moneyline -813 here against -591 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Sam Houston State BearkatsTulsa at Sam Houston
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says Tulsa by 12.5, our data says Tulsa by 12
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Sam Houston →
Market
Tulsa by 12.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Tulsa by 17
FPI
Tulsa by 11
Sagarin
Tulsa by 11.5
Massey
Sam Houston by 1.5
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 120.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 12opened Tulsa by 14now Tulsa by 12.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 14 to Tulsa by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
553.5 pts over the market
Massey
51.4on the market
Nasty Number
53.21.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 52.1now 51.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.6 points since it opened, from 52.1 to 51.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sam Houston spreadTotal (over)Sam Houston MLTulsa ML
TOM+12.5 -11051.5 -110+370-500
Kalshi+11.5 -107 50¢51.5 -112 51¢+426 18¢-490 82¢
Pinnacle+12 -10351.5 -116+397-512
All 14 books
Sam Houston spreadTotal (over)Sam Houston MLTulsa ML
TOM+12.5 -11051.5 -110+370-500
Kalshi+11.5 -107 50¢51.5 -112 51¢+426 18¢-490 82¢
BetMGM+12.5 -11051.5 -110+380-500
BetOnline.ag+12.5 -11051.5 -110+383-500
BetRivers+11.5 -10851 -114+350-480
BetUS+12.5 -11052 -110+390-500
Bovada+12.5 -11052 -110+375-525
Caesars+12.5 -11051.5 -114+380-500
DraftKings+12.5 -11251.5 -118+380-500
Fanatics+12.5 -11052 -110+390-525
FanDuel+11.5 -11051.5 -108+365-490
LowVig.ag+12.5 -10651.5 -108+383-500
MyBookie.ag+12.5 -11052 -110+390-549
Pinnacle+12 -10351.5 -116+397-512

Marked: best for the Sam Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +12.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Sam Houston to win · +370 at TOM
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston).

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +12.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++17.0+691
FPI+11.0+331
Sagarin+11.5+358
Massey-1.5-116
Market (12 books)+12.5+387
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +12.5-110-100-2.4%
MoneylineSam Houston State Bearkats ML+370+379priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-07 16:27.

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +12.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Towson Tigers at South Carolina GamecocksTowson at South Carolina
CFB 6:00pm
No bet
market says South Carolina by 44, our data says South Carolina by 43.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Carolina by 44.

The spread

← more Towson than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 44TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
South Carolina by 42
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 43.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 43.5opened South Carolina by 44now South Carolina by 44Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLTowson ML
TOM-44 -11057 -115
Kalshi57.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-44.5 -10257 -110
All 12 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLTowson ML
TOM-44 -11057 -115
Kalshi57.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-44.5 -11057.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-44 -11057 -115
BetRivers-44 -11057 -110
Bovada-44.5 +10057 -110
Caesars-44.5 -10757.5 -108
DraftKings-44.5 -10857.5 -108
Fanatics-43.5 -11057.5 -110
FanDuel-43.5 -11557.5 -110
LowVig.ag-44 -11057 -115
Pinnacle-44.5 -10257 -110

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Towson +44.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 63 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F, 47% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -43.0, now -44.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward South Carolina).

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 43.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Towson
FPIdoesn't rate Towson
Sagarin-42.0
Masseyrates Towson and South Carolina on different scales
Market (10 books)-44.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTowson Tigers +44.0-110-170+10.6%

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward South Carolina Gamecocks since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.3 consensus.

The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Western Illinois Leathernecks at Wisconsin BadgersWestern Illinois at Wisconsin
CFB 6:15pm
No bet
market says Wisconsin by 42.5, our data says Wisconsin by 43.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Wisconsin by 42.5.

The spread

← more Western Illinois than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 42.5TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 47.5
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 43.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 43.5opened Wisconsin by 41.5now Wisconsin by 42.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Wisconsin by 41.5 to Wisconsin by 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLWestern Illinois ML
TOM-42.5 -11052 -105
Kalshi51.5 -116 52¢
Pinnacle-43 -10552 -109
All 12 books
Wisconsin spreadTotal (over)Wisconsin MLWestern Illinois ML
TOM-42.5 -11052 -105
Kalshi51.5 -116 52¢
BetMGM-42.5 -11051.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-42.5 -11052 -105
BetRivers-42.5 -11252 -114
Bovada-43 -10552 -110
Caesars-42.5 -10851.5 -110
DraftKings-42.5 -10551.5 -110
Fanatics-42.5 -10552 -105
FanDuel-42.5 -10251.5 -115
LowVig.ag-42.5 -11052 -105
Pinnacle-43 -10552 -109

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wisconsin -42.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 41 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened -38.0, now -43.0 (the market moved 4.9 toward Wisconsin).

TOM: spread -42.5 here against -42.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 43.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Western Illinois
FPIdoesn't rate Western Illinois
Sagarin-47.5
Masseyrates Western Illinois and Wisconsin on different scales
Market (10 books)-42.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWisconsin Badgers -42.5-110+147-11.9%

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-10 10:21; total has moved up 2.5.

TOM: spread -42.5 here against -42.8 consensus.

The line is -42.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Clemson TigersGeorgia Southern at Clemson
CFB 6:30pm
Under 55.5
should be 54.7 · getting 0.8 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Clemson by 19.5.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Clemson by 19.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Clemson by 13
FPI
Clemson by 16.5
Sagarin
Clemson by 25.5
Massey
Clemson by 3
Nasty Number
Clemson by 181.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Clemson by 18opened Clemson by 21now Clemson by 19.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Clemson by 21 to Clemson by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
51.54 pts under the market
Massey
54.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.92.6 pts under the market
Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 56.5now 55.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-19.5 -11555.5 -105
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-1087 91¢+841 10¢
Pinnacle-20.5 +10255 -109-1319+834
All 14 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLGeorgia Southern ML
TOM-19.5 -11555.5 -105
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-1087 91¢+841 10¢
BetMGM-19.5 -11054.5 -125-1200+850
BetOnline.ag-19.5 -11555.5 -105-1350+817
BetRivers-20.5 -11255 -112-1667+850
BetUS-19.5 -11555 -110-1400+825
Bovada-19.5 -11555 -110-1400+750
Caesars-19.5 -11454.5 -118-1450+850
DraftKings-19.5 -11554.5 -118-1200+750
Fanatics-20 -11055 -110-1300+800
FanDuel-19.5 -11054.5 -115-1400+800
LowVig.ag-19.5 -11155.5 -103-1350+817
MyBookie.ag-20 -11055 -110-1442+752
Pinnacle-20.5 +10255 -109-1319+834

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +19.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +817
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. That's 2.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 40% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -20.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Georgia Southern).

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -20.1 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 1830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.0-430
FPI-16.5-652
Sagarin-25.5-2367
Massey-3.0-140
Market (12 books)-19.5-856
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.552.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +19.5-105+110-3.6%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+817+800priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.5-115-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-07 14:15; total has moved down 0.5.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -20.1 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.0 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Fordham Rams at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersFordham at Coastal Carolina
CFB 6:30pm
No bet
market says Coastal Carolina by 36, our data says Coastal Carolina by 29
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Coastal Carolina by 36.

The spread

← more Fordham than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Coastal Carolina by 36TOM, -110
The Four
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 19
Nasty Number
Coastal Carolina by 296.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Coastal Carolina by 29opened Coastal Carolina by 35now Coastal Carolina by 36Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Coastal Carolina by 35 to Coastal Carolina by 36. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLFordham ML
TOM-36 -11054 -110
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢
Pinnacle-37.5 -10653.5 -119
All 12 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLFordham ML
TOM-36 -11054 -110
Kalshi54.5 -107 50¢
BetMGM-35.5 -11053.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-36 -11054 -110
BetRivers-36 -11054.5 -109
Bovada-37.5 -10554 -110
Caesars-35.5 -11253.5 -113
DraftKings-36.5 -11053.5 -110
Fanatics-36 -11054 -110
FanDuel-35.5 -10653.5 -110+3000
LowVig.ag-36 -11054 -110
Pinnacle-37.5 -10653.5 -119

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fordham +36.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Fordham to win · +4086
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -34.5, now -37.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Coastal Carolina).

Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $102 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 17 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.9 consensus.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCoastal Carolina by 2940% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Fordham
FPIdoesn't rate Fordham
Sagarin-19.0-928
Masseyrates Fordham and Coastal Carolina on different scales
Market (10 books)-36.0-3829
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFordham Rams +36.0-110-122+2.5%
MoneylineFordham Rams ML+4086+4140priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-10 18:23.

TOM: spread -36.0 here against -36.9 consensus; total 54.0 here against 53.6 consensus.

The line is -36.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs at LSU TigersLouisiana Tech at LSU
CFB 6:30pm
Under 55
should be 53.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 55.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says LSU by 35.

The spread

← more Louisiana Tech than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 35TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
LSU by 29.5
FPI
LSU by 32.5
Sagarin
LSU by 34
Massey
LSU by 3.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 33.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 33.5opened LSU by 35now LSU by 35MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
47.27.8 pts under the market
Massey
52.22.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.75.3 pts under the market
Under 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.7opened 55.5now 55MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-35 -11055 -105
Kalshi55.5 -103 49¢
Pinnacle-35 -10355.5 -102
All 14 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLLouisiana Tech ML
TOM-35 -11055 -105
Kalshi55.5 -103 49¢
BetMGM-35.5 -11055.5 -115
BetOnline.ag-35 -11055 -105
BetRivers-35.5 -10955.5 -113
BetUS-35 -11055 -105
Bovada-35 -10555 -110
Caesars-35 -11055.5 -107
DraftKings-34.5 -11855.5 -102
Fanatics-35 -11055 -110
FanDuel-35.5 +10055.5 -105
LowVig.ag-35 -10655 -103
MyBookie.ag-34.5 -11055 -110
Pinnacle-35 -10355.5 -102

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana Tech +35.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana Tech to win · +4086
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 52. That's 5.3 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -32.5, now -35.0 (the market moved 2.4 toward LSU).

Kalshi thin: Under 55.5, only $260 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 33.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-29.5-4206
FPI-32.5
Sagarin-34.0
Massey-3.5-148
Market (12 books)-35.0-3977
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.049.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Tech Bulldogs +35.0-110+140-10.8%
MoneylineLouisiana Tech Bulldogs ML+4086+8973priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-115-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-06 16:49.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.

The line is -35.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Texas LonghornsOhio State at Texas
CFB 6:30pm
No bet
market says Texas by 1.5, our data says Texas by 1.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Texas →
Market
Texas by 1.5TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 2.5
FPI
Texas by 2.5
Sagarin
Ohio State by 1
Massey
Texas by 2
Nasty Number
Texas by 1.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 1.5opened Texas by 1.5now Texas by 1.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.70.7 pts over the market
Massey
49.81.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 48.5now 51MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLOhio State ML
TOM-1.5 -11751 -110-129+109
Pinnacle-1.5 -10950.5 -112-122+108
All 13 books
Texas spreadTotal (over)Texas MLOhio State ML
TOM-1.5 -11751 -110-129+109
BetMGM-2 -10850.5 -112-130+110
BetOnline.ag-1.5 -11751 -110-129+109
BetRivers-1.5 -11450.5 -110-130+105
BetUS-1.5 -11550.5 -110-125+105
Bovada-2 -11051 -105-125+105
Caesars-1.5 -11050.5 -110-127+108
DraftKings-1.5 -11550.5 -115-130+110
Fanatics-1.5 -11050.5 -115-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 -11049.5 -118-120+102
LowVig.ag-1.5 -11051 -108-129+109
MyBookie.ag-2 -11050.5 -110-128+105
Pinnacle-1.5 -10950.5 -112-122+108

Marked: best for the Texas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio State +1.5 · -103 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ohio State to win · +109 at TOM
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 101°F.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+129
FPI-2.5-130
Sagarin+1.0+109
Massey-2.0-120
Market (12 books)-1.5-123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.050.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio State Buckeyes +1.5-103+104-1.7%
MoneylineOhio State Buckeyes ML+109+114-1.2%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Oregon State BeaversTexas Tech at Oregon State
CFB 6:30pm
Under 52
should be 51.2 · getting 0.8 pts · was 53.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 26.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Oregon State →
Market
Texas Tech by 26TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 23.5
FPI
Texas Tech by 23.5
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 27.5
Massey
Oregon State by 1
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 250.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 25opened Texas Tech by 26.5now Texas Tech by 26MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 26.5 to Texas Tech by 26. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
47.74.3 pts under the market
Massey
51.10.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.42.6 pts under the market
Under 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.4opened 52now 52MonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Oregon State spreadTotal (over)Oregon State MLTexas Tech ML
TOM+26 -11052 -110
Pinnacle+26 -11452.5 -105+1418-2779
All 13 books
Oregon State spreadTotal (over)Oregon State MLTexas Tech ML
TOM+26 -11052 -110
BetMGM+25.5 -11052.5 -105+1550-3000
BetOnline.ag+26 -11052 -110+1256-3000
BetRivers+26 -10952.5 -113+1700
BetUS+25.5 -11052 -110+1300-3000
Bovada+25 -11052.5 -105+1100
Caesars+25.5 -10852.5 -107+1500
DraftKings+25.5 -10852.5 -108+1500
Fanatics+25.5 -11052.5 -105+1400-2800
FanDuel+26.5 -12052.5 -105+1600
LowVig.ag+26 -10652 -108+1256-3000
MyBookie.ag+25.5 -11052 -110+1075-3030
Pinnacle+26 -11452.5 -105+1418-2779

Marked: best for the Oregon State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon State +26.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Oregon State to win · +1409
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 51. That's 2.6 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 63°F, 38% chance of rain.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 2530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.5+1701
FPI+23.5+1669
Sagarin+27.5+3118
Massey-1.0-109
Market (12 books)+26.0+1444
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.049.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers +26.0-110+137-10.2%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML+1409+2206priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

The line is +26.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Auburn TigersSouthern Miss at Auburn
CFB 6:45pm
Under 56
should be 53.2 · getting 2.8 pts · was 57
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Auburn by 33.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Auburn by 33TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Auburn by 24
FPI
Auburn by 16
Sagarin
Auburn by 33.5
Massey
Auburn by 4
Nasty Number
Auburn by 293.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Auburn by 29opened Auburn by 30.5now Auburn by 33SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Auburn by 30.5 to Auburn by 33. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM, Under -105
The Four
SP+ pace
47.88.2 pts under the market
Massey
47.58.5 pts under the market
Weather
-1.055% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
46.69.4 pts under the market
Under 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 3.6 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.6opened 52.4now 56SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 3.6 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 3.6 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-33 -11056 -115
Kalshi56.5 -112 51¢+3021
Pinnacle-33 -10456.5 -111
All 14 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-33 -11056 -115
Kalshi56.5 -112 51¢+3021
BetMGM-32.5 -11056.5 -105
BetOnline.ag-33 -11056 -115
BetRivers-33.5 -11057 -113
BetUS-33.5 -11056.5 -110
Bovada-33 -10556.5 -115
Caesars-32.5 -11356 -110
DraftKings-32.5 -11256.5 -110+3000
Fanatics-32.5 -11056.5 -110+3000
FanDuel-32.5 -11556.5 -115+2400
LowVig.ag-33 -10656 -114
MyBookie.ag-33 -11056 -110+1606
Pinnacle-33 -10456.5 -111

Marked: best for the Auburn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +33.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +3000
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 3, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 47. Weather takes 1 off. That's 9.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 56.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 55% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAuburn by 2930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.0-1859
FPI-16.0-609
Sagarin-33.5
Massey-4.0-149
Market (12 books)-33.0-2576
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.046.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +33.0-110+109-4.6%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+3000+4081priced at 3 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-105-133shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 56.4 consensus.

The line is -33.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Charlotte 49ers at Ole Miss RebelsCharlotte at Ole Miss
CFB 6:45pm
No bet
market says Ole Miss by 45, our data says Ole Miss by 43
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ole Miss by 45.

The spread

← more Charlotte than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
Ole Miss by 45TOM, -112
The Four
SP+
Ole Miss by 41.5
FPI
Ole Miss by 35
Sagarin
Ole Miss by 49
Massey
Ole Miss by 5.5
Nasty Number
Ole Miss by 432 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ole Miss by 43opened Ole Miss by 47.5now Ole Miss by 45MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Ole Miss by 47.5 to Ole Miss by 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
60.31.3 pts over the market
Massey
60.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.51.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.5opened 61.5now 59MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 61.5 to 59. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLCharlotte ML
TOM-45 -11259 -105
Kalshi59.5 -112 51¢
Pinnacle-44.5 -11059.5 -107
All 12 books
Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLCharlotte ML
TOM-45 -11259 -105
Kalshi59.5 -112 51¢
BetMGM-45.5 -10860.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-45 -11259 -105
BetRivers-45.5 -10959.5 -110
BetUS-45 -11059 -105
Bovada-44.5 -11559.5 -110
Caesars-45.5 -10459.5 -110
DraftKings-45.5 -10559.5 -112
Fanatics-45.5 -10559.5 -110
FanDuel-44.5 -11559.5 -105
Pinnacle-44.5 -11059.5 -107

Marked: best for the Ole Miss side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +45.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 66 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 88°F.

Across the books: opened -47.5, now -45.0 (the market moved 2.7 toward Charlotte).

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOle Miss by 4330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-41.5
FPI-35.0
Sagarin-49.0
Massey-5.5-175
Market (10 books)-45.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.060.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +45.0-108-195+14.1%
TotalOver 59.0-105-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Charlotte 49ers since 09-10 15:19; total has moved down 1.1.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 59.5 consensus.

The line is -45.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Prairie View A&M Panthers at Baylor BearsPrairie View A&M at Baylor
CFB 7:00pm
No bet
market says Baylor by 37, our data says Baylor by 36
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Baylor by 37.

The spread

← more Prairie View A&M than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 37TOM, -105
The Four
Sagarin
Baylor by 33.5
Nasty Number
Baylor by 360.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 36opened Baylor by 37.5now Baylor by 37Sat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Baylor by 37.5 to Baylor by 37. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLPrairie View A&M ML
TOM-37 -10555.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -112 51¢
Pinnacle-37.5 -11055.5 -110
All 12 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLPrairie View A&M ML
TOM-37 -10555.5 -110
Kalshi55.5 -112 51¢
BetMGM-37 -11055.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-37 -10555.5 -110
BetRivers-37.5 -11455 -110
Bovada-37.5 -11055.5 -110
Caesars-37.5 -10855.5 -112
DraftKings-37.5 -10555.5 -110
Fanatics-37 -11055.5 -110
FanDuel-37.5 -11855.5 -115
LowVig.ag-37 -10555.5 -110
Pinnacle-37.5 -11055.5 -110

Marked: best for the Baylor side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Prairie View A&M +37.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 40 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Prairie View A&M to win · +7079
We make it 1 in 100 to win, the price says 1, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 97°F.

Across the books: opened -38.0, now -37.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Prairie View A&M).

TOM: spread -37.0 here against -37.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 3621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Prairie View A&M
FPIdoesn't rate Prairie View A&M
Sagarin-33.5
Masseyrates Prairie View A&M and Baylor on different scales
Market (10 books)-37.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPrairie View A&M Panthers +37.0-115+151-13.6%
MoneylinePrairie View A&M Panthers ML+7079priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Prairie View A&M Panthers since 09-08 16:04.

TOM: spread -37.0 here against -37.4 consensus.

The line is -37.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Southern Tigers at UTEP MinersTexas Southern at UTEP
CFB 8:00pm
No bet
market says UTEP by 27, our data says UTEP by 22
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UTEP by 27.

The spread

← more Texas Southern than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
UTEP by 27TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
UTEP by 14
Nasty Number
UTEP by 225.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTEP by 22opened UTEP by 25.5now UTEP by 27Sat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTEP by 25.5 to UTEP by 27. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLTexas Southern ML
TOM-27 -11552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-2580 96¢+1775
Pinnacle-26.5 -11653 -114+1272
All 12 books
UTEP spreadTotal (over)UTEP MLTexas Southern ML
TOM-27 -11552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -112 51¢-2580 96¢+1775
BetMGM-27 -11052.5 -110-3000+1750
BetOnline.ag-27 -11552.5 -110
BetRivers-26.5 -11352.5 -114
Bovada-27 -11053.5 -105+1200
Caesars-27 -11253.5 -106+1400
DraftKings-27.5 -10853.5 -108+1700
Fanatics-27.5 -11053.5 -110-3000+1500
FanDuel-25.5 -11453.5 -110+2000
LowVig.ag-27 -11552.5 -110
Pinnacle-26.5 -11653 -114+1272

Marked: best for the UTEP side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Southern +27.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Texas Southern to win · +1594
We make it 7 in 100 to win, the price says 6, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 90°F.

The ratings sit 13 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUTEP by 2240% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Texas Southern
FPIdoesn't rate Texas Southern
Sagarin-14.0-480
Masseyrates Texas Southern and UTEP on different scales
Market (10 books)-27.0-1445
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Southern Tigers +27.0-105-115+2.2%
MoneylineTexas Southern Tigers ML+1594+1324priced at 6 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -27.0 here against -26.7 consensus; total 52.5 here against 53.0 consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

North Dakota State Bison at Air Force FalconsNorth Dakota State at Air Force
CFB 9:00pm
No bet
market says North Dakota State by 2, our data says North Dakota State by 1.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says North Dakota State by 2, the Nasty Number says North Dakota State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more North Dakota State than the bookmore Air Force →
Market
North Dakota State by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 0.5
FPI
North Dakota State by 4
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 2.5
Massey
Air Force by 2
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 1.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 1.5opened North Dakota State by 3now North Dakota State by 2MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 3 to North Dakota State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.51.5 pts over the market
Massey
49.51.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
47.70.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.7opened 47now 48MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+2 -11048 -105+108-128
Pinnacle+2.5 -11247.5 -111+106-120
All 13 books
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNorth Dakota State ML
TOM+2 -11048 -105+108-128
BetMGM+2 -10847.5 -110+105-125
BetOnline.ag+2 -11047.5 -115+108-128
BetRivers+1.5 -11047.5 -112+102-127
BetUS+2 -11047.5 -110+110-130
Bovada+2 -11547.5 -115+100-120
Caesars+1.5 -10947.5 -112+106-125
DraftKings+1.5 -10547.5 -112+105-125
Fanatics+2 -11047.5 -115+105-125
FanDuel+2.5 -12047.5 -110-102-118
LowVig.ag+2 -10647.5 -108+108-128
MyBookie.ag+1.5 -11047.5 -110+103-125
Pinnacle+2.5 -11247.5 -111+106-120

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force +2.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Air Force to win · +108 at TOM
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 66°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

DraftKings still has North Dakota State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at North Dakota State by 2.5.

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-0.5-108
FPI+4.0+150
Sagarin+2.5+130
Massey-2.0-121
Market (12 books)+2.0+113
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.047.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons +2.0-110+104-3.3%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML+108+119-2.5%
TotalUnder 48.0-115-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-06 20:14.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Sacramento State Hornets at Fresno State BulldogsSacramento State at Fresno State
CFB 9:30pm
Over 44.5
should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts · was 45.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Fresno State by 17.5.

The spread

← more Sacramento State than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 17.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 13.5
FPI
Fresno State by 13.5
Sagarin
Fresno State by 13
Massey
Fresno State by 3
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 161.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 16opened Fresno State by 18.5now Fresno State by 17.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Fresno State by 18.5 to Fresno State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
44.3on the market
Massey
49.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
472.5 pts over the market
Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 45now 44.5MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLSacramento State ML
TOM-17.5 -11044.5 -110
Pinnacle-18.5 +10344.5 -107-979+666
All 13 books
Fresno State spreadTotal (over)Fresno State MLSacramento State ML
TOM-17.5 -11044.5 -110
BetMGM-17 -12044.5 -110-1000+675
BetOnline.ag-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+709
BetRivers-18 -10944.5 -108-1250+700
BetUS-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+700
Bovada-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1000+625
Caesars-17.5 -11044.5 -112-1200+675
DraftKings-17.5 -11044.5 -112-900+600
Fanatics-17.5 -11044.5 -110-1100+700
FanDuel-17.5 -10544.5 -115-1050+660
LowVig.ag-17.5 -10644.5 -108-1100+709
MyBookie.ag-18 -11044.5 -110-1205+690
Pinnacle-18.5 +10344.5 -107-979+666

Marked: best for the Fresno State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sacramento State +17.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Sacramento State to win · +682
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 13, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. That's 2.5 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 92°F.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 1630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-13.5-457
FPI-13.5-451
Sagarin-13.0-416
Massey-3.0-139
Market (12 books)-17.5-702
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSacramento State Hornets +17.5-110+102-2.9%
MoneylineSacramento State Hornets ML+682+626priced at 13 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 44.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

TOM: spread -17.5 here against -18.1 consensus.

The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Montana State Bobcats at Nevada Wolf PackMontana State at Nevada
CFB 9:30pm
No bet
market says Montana State by 4.5, our data says Montana State by 5.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Montana State by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Montana State by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Montana State than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Montana State by 4.5TOM, -115
The Four
Sagarin
Montana State by 8
Nasty Number
Montana State by 5.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Montana State by 5.5opened Montana State by 3.5now Montana State by 4.5Sat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Montana State by 3.5 to Montana State by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLMontana State ML
TOM+4.5 -11551.5 -110+160-190
Pinnacle+4 -10651.5 -109+158-193
All 12 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLMontana State ML
TOM+4.5 -11551.5 -110+160-190
BetMGM+4 -10851.5 -110+155-190
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11551.5 -110
BetRivers+4.5 -11351 -109+160-200
Bovada+4 +10051.5 -110+165-195
Caesars+4 -10751.5 -111+155-193
DraftKings+4 -10851.5 -108+154-185
Fanatics+5 -11052 -110+160-195
FanDuel+3.5 -10551.5 -112+158-192
LowVig.ag+4.5 -11551.5 -110
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11051.5 -110+160-208
Pinnacle+4 -10651.5 -109+158-193

Marked: best for the Nevada side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Montana State -4.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Montana State to win · -190 at TOM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60.
Not Nasty

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 25 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 5.2 for it.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus.

Fanatics still has Nevada +5.0 while Pinnacle is at Montana State by 4.

Full detail
We settle onMontana State by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Montana State
FPIdoesn't rate Montana State
Sagarin+8.0+233
Masseyrates Montana State and Nevada on different scales
Market (11 books)+4.5+167
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMontana State Bobcats -4.5-105-102-0.7%
MoneylineMontana State Bobcats ML-190-180-1.3%

Line move: total has moved up 1.5.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +4.1 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at USC TrojansLouisiana at USC
CFB 10:00pm
Over 59
should be 59.6 · getting 0.6 pts · was 60
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says USC by 31.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore USC →
Market
USC by 31TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
USC by 25.5
FPI
USC by 26.5
Sagarin
USC by 29.5
Massey
USC by 4
Nasty Number
USC by 29.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 29.5opened USC by 31.5now USC by 31MonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from USC by 31.5 to USC by 31. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
65.16.1 pts over the market
Massey
57.11.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
61.12.1 pts over the market
Over 59 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.1opened 60now 59MonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLLouisiana ML
TOM-31 -10559 -105
Kalshi59.5 +101 48¢+3021
Pinnacle-31 -10659 -107
All 14 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLLouisiana ML
TOM-31 -10559 -105
Kalshi59.5 +101 48¢+3021
BetMGM-31.5 -11059.5 -105+3000
BetOnline.ag-31 -10559 -105+1787
BetRivers-31 -11759 -112
BetUS-31 -11058.5 -110
Bovada-31 -11059.5 -105+1600
Caesars-31 -10958 -110
DraftKings-30.5 -11858.5 -118+2000
Fanatics-31 -11059 -110+2500
FanDuel-30.5 -11558.5 -106+3000
LowVig.ag-31 -10159.5 -103+1787
MyBookie.ag-31 -11059 -110+1559
Pinnacle-31 -10659 -107

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana +31.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 42 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Louisiana to win · +2000
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 57. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 59.5, only $2 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 29.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.5-2334
FPI-26.5-2649
Sagarin-29.5-4325
Massey-4.0-149
Market (12 books)-31.0-2112
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.061.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns +31.0-115+138-11.4%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML+2000+4348priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 59.0-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is -31.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

New Mexico State Aggies at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsNew Mexico State at Hawai'i
CFB 11:00pm
No bet
market says Hawai'i by 7, our data says Hawai'i by 7
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 7, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Hawai'i →
Market
Hawai'i by 7TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 10
FPI
Hawai'i by 8.5
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 8
Massey
Hawai'i by 2.5
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 7opened Hawai'i by 7now Hawai'i by 7FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.23.2 pts over the market
Massey
51.81.8 pts over the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
51.81.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 49.5now 50FriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLNew Mexico State ML
TOM-7 -11050 -115-310+235
Pinnacle-7.5 +10250 -112-314+261
All 12 books
Hawai'i spreadTotal (over)Hawai'i MLNew Mexico State ML
TOM-7 -11050 -115-310+235
BetMGM-7 -12050.5 -108-300+240
BetOnline.ag-7 -11050 -115-310+252
BetRivers-7 -11549.5 -114-295+220
BetUS-7 -11050 -110-310+255
Caesars-7.5 -10550.5 -109-310+245
DraftKings-7.5 -10550.5 -110-298+240
Fanatics-7.5 -10550.5 -110-310+250
FanDuel-7.5 -10249.5 -115-295+235
LowVig.ag-7 -11050 -114-310+252
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11050.5 -110-319+246
Pinnacle-7.5 +10250 -112-314+261

Marked: best for the Hawai'i side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -7.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -310 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 79°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus.

TOM: moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-10.0-302
FPI-8.5-245
Sagarin-8.0-237
Massey-2.5-128
Market (11 books)-7.0-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.051.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -7.0-110+108-4.2%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-310-217-7.2%
TotalOver 50.0-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.4 consensus; moneyline -297 here against -267 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Monmouth Hawks at Western Michigan BroncosMonmouth at Western Michigan
CFB 5:30pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Monmouth than the bookmore Western Michigan →
Market
Western Michigan by 29TOM, -115
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Western Michigan by 27.5now Western Michigan by 29Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLMonmouth ML
TOM-29 -11553.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-3476 97¢+1775
Pinnacle-28.5 -11454.5 -111
All 12 books
Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLMonmouth ML
TOM-29 -11553.5 -115
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢-3476 97¢+1775
BetMGM-29.5 -10854.5 -108+2200
BetOnline.ag-29 -11553.5 -115
BetRivers-29.5 -11054.5 -108+1500
Bovada-28.5 -11554.5 -110
Caesars-29.5 -10954.5 -108+1300
DraftKings-29.5 -11054.5 -108+1800
Fanatics-29.5 -11054.5 -110+2000
FanDuel-28.5 -11554.5 -110+2400
LowVig.ag-29 -11553.5 -115
Pinnacle-28.5 -11454.5 -111

Marked: best for the Western Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -29.0 (the market moved 2.3 toward Western Michigan).

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.4 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Monmouth
FPIdoesn't rate Monmouth
Sagarindoesn't rate Monmouth
Masseyrates Monmouth and Western Michigan on different scales
Market (10 books)-29.0-1862
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.5

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Western Michigan Broncos since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 54.4 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Southern University Jaguars at Houston CougarsSouthern at Houston
CFB 6:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Southern than the bookmore Houston →
Market
Houston by 52TOM, -110
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened Houston by 51.5now Houston by 52Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLSouthern ML
TOM-52 -11061.5 -110
Kalshi61.5
Pinnacle-52 -11061.5 -118
All 12 books
Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLSouthern ML
TOM-52 -11061.5 -110
Kalshi61.5
BetMGM-52 -10561.5 -112
BetOnline.ag-52 -11061.5 -110
BetRivers-51.5 -11361.5 -109
Bovada-52 -11062 -110
Caesars-53 -11061.5 -115
DraftKings-51.5 -11861.5 -118
Fanatics-52 -10561.5 -115
FanDuel-51.5 -11061.5 -115
LowVig.ag-52 -11061.5 -110
Pinnacle-52 -11061.5 -118

Marked: best for the Houston side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 93°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -51.0, now -52.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Houston).

Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Southern
FPIdoesn't rate Southern
Sagarindoesn't rate Southern
Masseyrates Southern and Houston on different scales
Market (10 books)-52.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.5

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Houston Cougars since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Grambling State Tigers at TCU Horned FrogsGrambling at TCU
CFB 7:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Grambling than the bookmore TCU →
Market
TCU by 44TOM, -115
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened TCU by 43.5now TCU by 44Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLGrambling ML
TOM-44 -11555.5 -110
Pinnacle-44.5 -11456.5 -105
All 11 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLGrambling ML
TOM-44 -11555.5 -110
BetMGM-44 -10855.5 -102
BetOnline.ag-44 -11555.5 -110
BetRivers-44.5 -11555.5 -114
Bovada-44.5 -11556 -110
Caesars-44 -11355.5 -120
DraftKings-44.5 -10555.5 -115
Fanatics-44.5 -11056 -110
FanDuel-44.5 -11055.5 -115
LowVig.ag-44 -11555.5 -110
Pinnacle-44.5 -11456.5 -105

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 99°F.

Across the books: opened -43.5, now -44.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward TCU).

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus.

TOM: total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Grambling
FPIdoesn't rate Grambling
Sagarindoesn't rate Grambling
Masseyrates Grambling and TCU on different scales
Market (10 books)-44.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.5

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-08 16:04; total has moved up 1.6.

TOM: spread -44.0 here against -44.4 consensus; total 55.5 here against 56.1 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Cal Poly Mustangs at San Jose State SpartansCal Poly at San José State
CFB 8:00pm
No rating
the ratings don't cover this game
No ratingBuck's case ›
Buck

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more Cal Poly than the bookmore San José State →
Market
San José State by 21.5TOM, -105
The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

opened San José State by 20.5now San José State by 21.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLCal Poly ML
TOM-21.5 -10559 -105
Pinnacle-21 -11558 -111-1658+796
All 12 books
San José State spreadTotal (over)San José State MLCal Poly ML
TOM-21.5 -10559 -105
BetMGM-21.5 -10558.5 -110-1600+1050
BetOnline.ag-21.5 -10559 -105
BetRivers-21.5 -11358 -108+1400
Bovada-21 -11558 -110-1600+800
Caesars-21.5 -10758.5 -109-1700+850
DraftKings-21.5 -10558.5 -108-1800+1000
Fanatics-21.5 -10558 -110-1800+1050
FanDuel-21.5 -11458.5 -105-2800+1160
LowVig.ag-21.5 -10559 -105
MyBookie.ag-21.5 -11058 -110
Pinnacle-21 -11558 -111-1658+796

Marked: best for the San José State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 13 mph wind, 73°F. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -20.5, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward San José State). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.

TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

Full detail
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+doesn't rate Cal Poly
FPIdoesn't rate Cal Poly
Sagarindoesn't rate Cal Poly
Masseyrates Cal Poly and San José State on different scales
Market (11 books)-21.5-930
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.0

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-08 18:47; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.2 consensus.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Tomorrow

13 games1 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Jets at Titans, Titans PK.
GameThe call
New York Jets at Tennessee TitansJets at Titans
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Titans PK
should be Titans -1 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -1
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Titans PK: all 4 ratings 3.2 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Titans →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Titans by 33.1 pts our side
FPI
Titans by 33.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Titans by 4.54.4 pts our side
Massey
Titans by 22.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Titans by 10.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Titans. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Titans by 1opened a pick'emnow a pick'emSunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
44.66.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.66.1 pts over the market
Over 38.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.6opened 39.4now 38.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101
All 14 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLJets ML
TOMPK -11638.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5 -103 49¢38.5 -116 52¢-116 52¢-103 49¢
BetMGM-1.5 -10838.5 -110-120+100
BetOnline.agPK -11638.5 -110
BetRivers-1.5 -11038.5 -110-125+104
BetUSPK -12038.5 -110
Bovada-1 -11039 -110-115-105
Caesars-1.5 -10938.5 -112-120+102
DraftKings-1.5 -11038.5 -112-122+102
Fanatics-1 -11039 -110-115-105
FanDuel-1.5 -10838.5 -110-118+100
LowVig.agPK -11238.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-1 -11038.5 -110-123+101
Pinnacle-1 -10538.5 -115-112-101

Marked: best for Titans, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans PK · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · -119
We make it 53 in 100 to win. The price says 54. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 53 cents fair, a play under 48.
Not Nasty
the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 6.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 90°F.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets), D'Angelo Ponds (CB, Jets) and 6 more.

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Titans PK while Pinnacle is at Titans by 1.

Full detail
We settle onTitans by 130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-146
FPI-3.0-145
Sagarin-4.5-171
Massey-2.0-129
Market (12 books)PK-107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.544.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans PK-116-112-0.9%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML-119-112-1.6%
TotalOver 38.5-110-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread PK here against -1.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota VikingsPackers at Vikings
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
Under 46
should be 44.7 · getting 1.3 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Vikings by 1, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 1TOM, -125
The Four
nfelo
Vikings by 1on the market
FPI
Packers by 1.52.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Packers by 0.51.5 pts our side
Massey
Vikings by 21 pts against us
Nasty Number
Vikings by 0.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Packers. Massey at Vikings by 2 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 0.5opened Vikings by 1now Vikings by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
41.64.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.64.4 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 46.2now 46SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12546 -115-132+112
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113
All 14 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLPackers ML
TOM-1 -12546 -115-132+112
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢46.5 -103 49¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
BetMGM-2 -11046.5 -110-135+110
BetOnline.ag-1 -12346 -115-130+110
BetRivers-1.5 -11346 -112-127+105
BetUS-1 -12046 -115-125+105
Bovada-2 -11046 -110-130+110
Caesars-1.5 -11346.5 -107-129+109
DraftKings-2.5 -10546.5 -108-130+110
Fanatics-2 -11046.5 -110-130+110
FanDuel-1.5 -11046.5 -108-126+108
LowVig.ag-1 -11946 -113-130+110
MyBookie.ag-2 -11046.5 -110-127+104
Pinnacle-1 -12046 -110-127+113

Marked: best for Packers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers +1.0 · +105 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · +112 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 42. That's 4.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+1.5+117
Sagarin+0.5+106
Massey-2.0-128
Market (12 books)-1.0-126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.041.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML+112+109+0.6%
SpreadGreen Bay Packers +1.0+105+103+0.4%
TotalUnder 46.0-105-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -1.3 consensus.

Chicago Bears at Carolina PanthersBears at Panthers
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Under 47
should be 46.2 · getting 0.8 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bears than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Bears by 3TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 2
FPI
Bears by 2
Sagarin
Bears by 2
Massey
Panthers by 1.5
Nasty Number
Bears by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 2.5now Bears by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 2.5 to Bears by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
43.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.23.8 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.2opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -10547 -110+140-170
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
Pinnacle+3 -10647.5 +100+146-166
All 14 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLBears ML
TOM+3 -10547 -110+140-170
Kalshi+2.5 +109 46¢46.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-161 60¢
BetMGM+3 -10247 -110+140-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -10547 -110+149-170
BetRivers+3 -10747 -110+140-175
BetUS+3 -10547 -110+146-170
Bovada+3 -11047 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -10647.5 -107+142-170
DraftKings+3 -10247.5 -110+140-166
Fanatics+3 -10547.5 -105+145-175
FanDuel+3 -10547.5 -102+148-176
LowVig.ag+3 -10547 -107+149-170
MyBookie.ag+3 -11047 -110+141-174
Pinnacle+3 -10647.5 +100+146-166

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +3.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +140 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 42. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 87°F.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 3 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+125
FPI+2.0+127
Sagarin+2.0+129
Massey-1.5-123
Market (12 books)+3.0+146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+140+140+0.0%
SpreadCarolina Panthers +3.0-105-105-0.1%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh SteelersFalcons at Steelers
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Over 41
should be 41.6 · getting 0.6 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 41.0. Massey say over by 2.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Steelers by 6, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Steelers →
Market
Steelers by 6TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
Steelers by 7.5
FPI
Steelers by 7.5
Sagarin
Steelers by 6.5
Massey
Steelers by 4.5
Nasty Number
Steelers by 6.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 6.5opened Steelers by 3now Steelers by 6SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Steelers by 3 to Steelers by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
43.12.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.12.1 pts over the market
Over 41 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.9 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 41.9now 41SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.9 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.9 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-6 -11041 -110-280+220
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢40.5-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-6 -11241 -108-290+244
All 14 books
Steelers spreadTotal (over)Steelers MLFalcons ML
TOM-6 -11041 -110-280+220
Kalshi-6.5 +101 48¢40.5-276 72¢+229 29¢
BetMGM-6 -11041 -110-275+225
BetOnline.ag-5.5 -11541 -110-270+222
BetRivers-6 -11341 -109-265+210
BetUS-6 -11041 -110-270+225
Bovada-6.5 -10541 -110-290+240
Caesars-6 -10841 -113-265+215
DraftKings-6 -11041.5 -105-270+220
Fanatics-6 -11041 -110-280+225
FanDuel-5.5 -11840.5 -118-290+235
LowVig.ag-5.5 -11041 -107-270+222
MyBookie.ag-6 -11041 -110-275+218
Pinnacle-6 -11241 -108-290+244

Marked: best for the Steelers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers -6.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · -280 at TOM
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 64.
Not Nasty
the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 2.1 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 41.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -6.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Steelers).

Kalshi thin: Over 40.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons), Donte Kent (CB, Steelers) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.5-184
FPI-7.5-181
Sagarin-6.5-164
Massey-4.5-130
Market (12 books)-6.0-268
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.043.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers -6.0-110+107-4.0%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML-280-217-5.3%
TotalOver 41.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Pittsburgh Steelers since 09-06 12:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Buffalo Bills at Houston TexansBills at Texans
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Over 44.5
should be 45.2 · getting 0.7 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 44.5. Massey say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Bills by 1, the Nasty Number says Bills by 0.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Bills than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Bills by 1TOM, +100
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 1
FPI
Bills by 0.5
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Texans by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 0.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 0.5opened a pick'emnow Bills by 1SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from a pick'em to Bills by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
Massey
46.92.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.92.4 pts over the market
Over 44.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 2.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.9opened 44.5now 44.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-116 52¢
Pinnacle+1 +10045 -101+106-119
All 14 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBills ML
TOM+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢44.5 -107 50¢+101 48¢-116 52¢
BetMGM+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-120
BetOnline.ag+1 +10044.5 -110+105-125
BetRivers+2 -11344.5 -112+104-125
BetUS+1 -10544.5 -110+105-125
Bovada+1.5 -11044.5 -110+105-125
Caesars+1.5 -11244.5 -109+103-121
DraftKings+1.5 -11244.5 -110-102-118
Fanatics+1.5 -11544.5 -110+105-125
FanDuel+1.5 -11544.5 -110-104-112
LowVig.ag+1 +10144.5 -107+105-125
MyBookie.ag+1 -11044.5 -110-101-121
Pinnacle+1 +10045 -101+106-119

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texans +1.0 · +100 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Texans to win · +105 at TOM
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47. That's 2.4 points over the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 44.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Bills).

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills) and 3 more.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-1.0-110
FPI+0.5+104
SagarinPK+100
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+1.0+110
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.546.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHouston Texans +1.0+100+101-0.3%
MoneylineHouston Texans ML+105+107-0.6%
TotalOver 44.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 44.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New Orleans Saints at Detroit LionsSaints at Lions
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
Under 50
should be 48.5 · getting 1.5 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 50.0. Massey say under by 5.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Lions by 7, the Nasty Number says Lions by 7. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Lions →
Market
Lions by 7TOM, -107
The Four
nfelo
Lions by 9
FPI
Lions by 7.5
Sagarin
Lions by 7.5
Massey
Lions by 2.5
Nasty Number
Lions by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 7opened Lions by 7now Lions by 7SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
44.95.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.95.1 pts under the market
Under 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 49.9now 50SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
Pinnacle-7 -10449.5 -116-321+266
All 14 books
Lions spreadTotal (over)Lions MLSaints ML
TOM-7 -10750 -110-310+235
Kalshi-7.5 +105 47¢49.5 -116 52¢-322 75¢+266 26¢
BetMGM-7 -11049.5 -118-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -10850 -110-310+252
BetRivers-7 -11049.5 -113-345+265
BetUS-7 -11050 -110-310+255
Bovada-7 -11050 -105-330+265
Caesars-7 -10649.5 -117-320+250
DraftKings-7 -11049.5 -112-340+270
Fanatics-7 -11050 -110-330+260
FanDuel-6.5 -12249.5 -115-335+270
LowVig.ag-7 -10350 -107-310+252
MyBookie.ag-7 -11050 -110-330+255
Pinnacle-7 -10449.5 -116-321+266

Marked: best for the Lions side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -7.0 · -107 at TOM
Covers 46 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -310 at TOM
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 76. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. That's 5.1 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-305
FPI-7.5-251
Sagarin-7.5-260
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-7.0-297
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.044.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -7.0-107+115-5.2%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-310-243-4.8%
TotalUnder 50.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles ChargersCardinals at Chargers
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
Under 47
should be 46.1 · getting 0.9 pts
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 47.0. Massey say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chargers by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Chargers by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 9.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 9
FPI
Chargers by 10.5
Sagarin
Chargers by 14
Massey
Chargers by 2
Nasty Number
Chargers by 9.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 9.5opened Chargers by 10now Chargers by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chargers by 10 to Chargers by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
42.54.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.54.5 pts under the market
Under 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 47.2now 47SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-515+365
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -111-480+376
All 13 books
Chargers spreadTotal (over)Chargers MLCardinals ML
TOM-9.5 -10547 -115-515+365
BetMGM-9.5 -11247.5 -108-500+400
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10547 -115-515+393
BetRivers-9 -11247 -113-480+350
BetUS-9.5 -10547.5 -110-515+400
Bovada-9 -11047 -115-500+360
Caesars-9.5 -10847.5 -108-530+400
DraftKings-9.5 -11547.5 -102-500+380
Fanatics-9 -11047 -110-500+370
FanDuel-9.5 -10547.5 -104-490+380
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10047 -113-515+393
MyBookie.ag-9.5 -11047 -110-505+356
Pinnacle-9.5 -10247 -111-480+376

Marked: best for the Chargers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chargers -9.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chargers to win · -515 at TOM
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 43. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 47.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Cardinals). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Isaiah World (OT, Chargers), Isaiah Adams (G, Cardinals), Deane Leonard (CB, Chargers) and 5 more.

TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-307
FPI-10.5-366
Sagarin-14.0-618
Massey-2.0-131
Market (12 books)-9.5-493
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Chargers -9.5-105+109-3.5%
MoneylineLos Angeles Chargers ML-515-331priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.0-105-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-06 17:00.

TOM: moneyline -493 here against -397 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis ColtsRavens at Colts
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Ravens by 3, our data says Ravens by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 3, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ravens than the bookmore Colts →
Market
Ravens by 3TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 2
FPI
Ravens by 2
Sagarin
Ravens by 3
Massey
Colts by 2
Nasty Number
Ravens by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 3opened Ravens by 3.5now Ravens by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 3.5 to Ravens by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.90.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 48now 48SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10548 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -11947.5 -117+151-172
All 14 books
Colts spreadTotal (over)Colts MLRavens ML
TOM+3 -10548 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -116 52¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3.5 -11548 -108+150-185
BetOnline.ag+3 -10548 -105+145-165
BetRivers+3.5 -11448 -108+143-175
BetUS+3 +10048 -110+142-165
Bovada+3 +10048 -105+150-175
Caesars+3 -10247.5 -117+147-176
DraftKings+3.5 -11547.5 -115+145-175
Fanatics+3 -10548 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3.5 -12047.5 -114+148-176
LowVig.ag+3 +10048 -102+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3 -11048 -110+132-162
Pinnacle+3.5 -11947.5 -117+151-172

Marked: best for the Colts side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colts +3.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Colts to win · +135 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+2.0+128
FPI+2.0+124
Sagarin+3.0+148
Massey-2.0-124
Market (12 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndianapolis Colts +3.0-105-105-0.1%
MoneylineIndianapolis Colts ML+135+140-0.9%
TotalOver 48.0-105-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +3.4 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.7 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati BengalsBuccaneers at Bengals
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Bengals by 3.5, our data says Bengals by 3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Bengals by 4.5
FPI
Bengals by 3.5
Sagarin
Bengals by 4
Massey
Bengals by 2
Nasty Number
Bengals by 3.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 3.5opened Bengals by 4now Bengals by 3.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bengals by 4 to Bengals by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
Massey
48.52 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.52 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 50.5now 50.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+165
Kalshi-3.550.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+159 37¢
Pinnacle-4 -10150 -111-200+174
All 14 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLBuccaneers ML
TOM-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+165
Kalshi-3.550.5 -103 49¢-191 64¢+159 37¢
BetMGM-3.5 -11050.5 -108-210+175
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+177
BetRivers-4 -10850.5 -110-210+170
BetUS-3.5 -11550.5 -105-205+175
Bovada-3.5 -11550 -115-210+175
Caesars-3.5 -11150.5 -109-205+171
DraftKings-3.5 -11250.5 -108-205+170
Fanatics-4 -11050.5 -110-205+170
FanDuel-3.5 -11850.5 -112-210+176
LowVig.ag-3.5 -11050.5 -102-205+177
MyBookie.ag-4 -11050.5 -110-210+168
Pinnacle-4 -10150 -111-200+174

Marked: best for the Bengals side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals -3.5 · -115 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · -205 at TOM
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56.
Not Nasty
the Under 50.5 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 84°F.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -3.5, only $126 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Brian Parker II (OT, Bengals) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-171
FPI-3.5-158
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-3.5-196
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.548.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals -3.5-115+111-6.1%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML-205-155-6.4%
TotalUnder 50.5-115-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Cleveland Browns at Jacksonville JaguarsBrowns at Jaguars
NFL tomorrow 12:00pm
No bet
market says Jaguars by 9.5, our data says Jaguars by 9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Jaguars by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Jaguars by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Jaguars →
Market
Jaguars by 9.5TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
Jaguars by 9
FPI
Jaguars by 8.5
Sagarin
Jaguars by 9.5
Massey
Jaguars by 2.5
Nasty Number
Jaguars by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jaguars by 9.5opened Jaguars by 8now Jaguars by 9.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Jaguars by 8 to Jaguars by 9.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40TOM
The Four
Massey
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
41.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.3opened 40.5now 40SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 40. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10440 -112-400+310
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
Pinnacle-9.5 +10040.5 -102-403+325
All 14 books
Jaguars spreadTotal (over)Jaguars MLBrowns ML
TOM-9.5 -10440 -112-400+310
Kalshi-9.5 -103 49¢40.5 -103 49¢-404 79¢+331 22¢
BetMGM-9 -11040 -110-450+333
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -10440 -112-400+316
BetRivers-8.5 -10940.5 -106-420+320
BetUS-9.5 -10540 -110-400+320
Bovada-9 -11040 -110-420+315
Caesars-9.5 -10439.5 -127-420+320
DraftKings-8.5 -11239.5 -118-455+350
Fanatics-9 -11040 -110-425+325
FanDuel-8.5 -11240.5 -102-460+360
LowVig.ag-9.5 +10140 -109-400+316
MyBookie.ag-9 -11040 -110-481+350
Pinnacle-9.5 +10040.5 -102-403+325

Marked: best for the Jaguars side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +9.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +310 at TOM
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Over 40.0 · -112 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Jaguars).

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Patrick Mekari (G, Jaguars), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Kendrick Green (G, Browns) and 5 more.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJaguars by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.0-311
FPI-8.5-288
Sagarin-9.5-334
Massey-2.5-134
Market (12 books)-9.5-383
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.041.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCleveland Browns +9.5-116-113-0.7%
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+310+320priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 40.0-112-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Jacksonville Jaguars since 09-06 12:20.

TOM: total 40.0 here against 40.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas RaidersDolphins at Raiders
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
No bet
market says Raiders by 3, our data says Raiders by 3
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Raiders by 3, the Nasty Number says Raiders by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Raiders by 3TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Raiders by 5
FPI
Raiders by 3.5
Sagarin
Raiders by 5.5
Massey
Raiders by 2
Nasty Number
Raiders by 30.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Raiders by 3opened Raiders by 3.5now Raiders by 3SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Raiders by 3.5 to Raiders by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
40.5TOM
The Four
Massey
410.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
410.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41opened 40.5now 40.5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -110-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -107 50¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3 -10940.5 -103-164+144
All 14 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLDolphins ML
TOM-3 -11340.5 -110-165+135
Kalshi-3.5 +105 47¢40.5 -107 50¢-167 61¢+140 40¢
BetMGM-3 -10840.5 -108-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3 -11340.5 -110-165+145
BetRivers-3 -11440.5 -107-159+130
BetUS-3 -11540 -110-165+142
Bovada-3 -11540 -110-165+140
Caesars-3 -11040.5 -106-170+140
DraftKings-3 -11240.5 -105-170+142
Fanatics-3 -11040.5 -105-170+140
FanDuel-3 -11239.5 -118-164+138
LowVig.ag-3 -10840.5 -107-165+145
MyBookie.ag-3 -12040 -110-171+139
Pinnacle-3 -10940.5 -103-164+144

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders -3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · -165 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Over 40.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Dolphins). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 40.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 7 more.

Full detail
We settle onRaiders by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-5.0-179
FPI-3.5-152
Sagarin-5.5-202
Massey-2.0-125
Market (12 books)-3.0-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points40.541.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders -3.0-113-101-2.7%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML-165-148-2.6%
TotalOver 40.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Miami Dolphins since 09-06 15:31.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Commanders at Philadelphia EaglesCommanders at Eagles
NFL tomorrow 3:25pm
No bet
market says Eagles by 5, our data says Eagles by 5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Commanders than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Eagles by 5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 6
FPI
Eagles by 5.5
Sagarin
Eagles by 6.5
Massey
Eagles by 2.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5opened Eagles by 5now Eagles by 5SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44TOM
The Four
Massey
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.70.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 44.4now 44SunMonTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5 -11544 -110-247+197
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +101 48¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
Pinnacle-5.5 -10444.5 -101-240+205
All 14 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLCommanders ML
TOM-5 -11544 -110-247+197
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢44.5 +101 48¢-229 68¢+198 32¢
BetMGM-5.5 -11044.5 -105-235+200
BetOnline.ag-5 -11544 -110-247+205
BetRivers-5.5 -11044.5 -106-250+205
BetUS-5.5 -11044 -110-245+205
Bovada-5.5 -10544 -110-245+205
Caesars-5.5 -11044 -113-245+200
DraftKings-6 -10844.5 -105-250+205
Fanatics-5.5 -11044 -110-245+200
FanDuel-5.5 -11044.5 -105-250+205
LowVig.ag-5 -11044 -107-247+205
MyBookie.ag-5.5 -11044.5 -110-250+198
Pinnacle-5.5 -10444.5 -101-240+205

Marked: best for the Eagles side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles -5.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · -247 at TOM
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 61.
Not Nasty
the Over 44.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Also out: Jeremy McNichols (RB, Commanders), Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Laremy Tunsil (OT, Commanders) and 6 more.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-6.0-207
FPI-5.5-194
Sagarin-6.5-218
Massey-2.5-135
Market (12 books)-5.0-236
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.044.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -5.0-115+107-5.2%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-247-189-5.8%
TotalOver 44.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -5.5 consensus; total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Dallas Cowboys at New York GiantsCowboys at Giants
NFL tomorrow 7:20pm
No bet
market says Cowboys by 3, our data says Cowboys by 2.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cowboys by 3, the Nasty Number says Cowboys by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cowboys by 3TOM, -113
The Four
nfelo
Cowboys by 1.5
FPI
Cowboys by 1.5
Sagarin
Cowboys by 2
Massey
Giants by 2
Nasty Number
Cowboys by 2.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Cowboys by 2.5opened Cowboys by 3now Cowboys by 3SunTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.31.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.3opened 47.9now 48SunTueWedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11348 -108+134-159
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -116+146-166
All 14 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCowboys ML
TOM+3 -11348 -108+134-159
Kalshi+3.5 -131 55¢47.5 -112 51¢+140 40¢-167 61¢
BetMGM+3 -11048 -110+138-165
BetOnline.ag+3 -11348 -108+139-159
BetRivers+3 -11848 -108+132-157
BetUS+3 -11048 -108+134-155
Bovada+3 -11048 -110+145-170
Caesars+3 -11148 -110+134-159
DraftKings+3 -11548.5 -105+136-162
Fanatics+3 -11048 -110+140-170
FanDuel+3 -11248.5 -105+134-158
LowVig.ag+3 -10848 -105+139-159
MyBookie.ag+3 -12048 -110+135-167
Pinnacle+2.5 +11647.5 -116+146-166

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +3.0 · -113 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Giants to win · +134 at TOM
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 38.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.0 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F.

Also out: Malik Davis (RB, Cowboys), Calvin Austin III (WR, Giants), DJ Rogers (TE, Cowboys) and 6 more.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onCowboys by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.5+122
FPI+1.5+121
Sagarin+2.0+131
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)+3.0+140
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.049.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +3.0-113-107-1.3%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML+134+137-0.5%
TotalOver 48.0-108-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Sep 14

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Broncos at Chiefs
GameThe call
Denver Broncos at Kansas City ChiefsBroncos at Chiefs
NFL Mon 14 Sep, 7:15pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.5 · getting 1 pt
A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 43.5. Massey say under by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 2.5TOM, -116
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 3.5
FPI
Chiefs by 3
Sagarin
Chiefs by 3
Massey
Chiefs by 2
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 2.5opened Chiefs by 2.5now Chiefs by 2.5WedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
39.24.3 pts under the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
38.55 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.5opened 43.5now 43.5WedThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -112 51¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +101-137+122
All 14 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLBroncos ML
TOM-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢43.5 -112 51¢-136 56¢+114 45¢
BetMGM-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11643.5 -115-140+120
BetRivers-2.5 -11843.5 -108-148+120
BetUS-2 -12043.5 -115-140+120
Bovada-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+120
Caesars-2.5 -11443.5 -112-141+120
DraftKings-2.5 -11543.5 -115-142+120
Fanatics-2.5 -11043.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11043.5 -112-134+114
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11243.5 -113-140+120
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11043.5 -110-143+117
Pinnacle-2.5 -10644 +101-137+122

Marked: best for the Chiefs side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -2.5 · -116 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -140 at TOM
We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 39. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 5.0 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 4 more.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.5-150
FPI-3.0-147
Sagarin-3.0-141
Massey-2.0-127
Market (12 books)-2.5-134
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.538.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -2.5-116-111-1.2%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-140-137-0.5%
TotalUnder 43.5-105-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 17

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Detroit Lions at Buffalo BillsLions at Bills
NFL Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm
No bet
market says Bills by 3, our data says Bills by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 3
The Four
nfelo
Bills by 3
FPI
Bills by 3.5
Sagarin
Bills by 4
Massey
Bills by 2
Nasty Number
Bills by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 3opened Bills by 3now Bills by 3ThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
Massey
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.20.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 51.5now 51.5ThuFriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.5-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -12051.5 -105
All 9 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLLions ML
Kalshi-3.5-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -12051.5 -105
BetRivers-3 -11252.5 -109-175+140
BetUS-3 -12051.5 -105
Caesars-3 -11751.5 -115-170+144
DraftKings-3 -11551.5 -115-162+136
Fanatics-3.5 +10051.5 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -11052.5 -110-196+164
LowVig.ag-3 -11651.5 -102

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bills -3.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bills to win · -172
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 55.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110
Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 38% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Buffalo Bills -3.5, only $0 available; Over 51.5, only $200 available; Under 51.5, only $267 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Isiah Pacheco (RB, Lions), Tyrell Shavers (WR, Bills), Giovanni Manu (OT, Lions) and 2 more.

Buffalo Bills has had 21 days off against 19, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-141
FPI-3.5-152
Sagarin-4.0-164
Massey-2.0-129
Market (8 books)-3.0-157
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bills -3.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineBuffalo Bills ML-172-147-3.8%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Sep 18

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsMiami at Wake Forest
CFB Fri 18 Sep, 6:30pm
No bet
market says Miami by 22.5, our data says Miami by 15.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Miami by 22.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Miami's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Miami's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami's last game
Massey
Wake Forest by 1
Nasty Number
Miami by 15.57.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 15.5opened Miami by 19.5now Miami by 22.5ThuFriSat

The spread has moved 3 points since it opened, from Miami by 19.5 to Miami by 22.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
43.610.9 pts under the market
Massey
53.41.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.56 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 52.5now 54.5ThuFriSat

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLMiami ML
Kalshi-1684 94¢
Wake Forest +22.5 · -110
Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
Wake Forest to win · +1000
We make it 15 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 53. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +19.5, now +22.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward Miami). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 24 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 15.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Miami's last game
FPIhasn't seen Miami's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami's last game
Massey-1.0-113
Market (1 books)+22.5+1042
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.548.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons +22.5-110-166+10.0%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML+1000+564priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.5-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Miami Hurricanes since 09-10 18:34; total has moved up 2.0.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Sep 19

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Indiana HoosiersWestern Kentucky at Indiana
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 3:00pm
Under 59.5
should be 58.5 · getting 1 pt
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 44.5
The Four
SP+
Indiana by 39.5
FPI
Indiana by 38
Sagarin
Indiana by 44.5
Massey
Indiana by 4.5
Nasty Number
Indiana by 431.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 43opened Indiana by 44.5now Indiana by 44.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.81.7 pts under the market
Massey
54.45.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
56.13.4 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.1opened 59.5now 59.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLWestern Kentucky ML
Kalshi
Western Kentucky +44.5 · -110
Covers 65 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet.
Blowout line
the Under 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. That's 3.4 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML, only $169 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 4330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-39.5
FPI-38.0
Sagarin-44.5
Massey-4.5-163
Market (1 books)-44.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.556.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +44.5-110-187+12.7%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

LSU Tigers at Ole Miss RebelsLSU at Ole Miss
CFB Sat 19 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 58.5
should be 57.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 58
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Ole Miss →
Market
LSU by 2.5
The Four
SP+
LSU by 8
FPI
LSU by 6.5
Sagarin
Ole Miss by 0.5
Massey
Ole Miss by 2.5
Nasty Number
LSU by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 2.5opened LSU by 2.5now LSU by 2.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5
The Four
SP+ pace
51.66.9 pts under the market
Massey
56.42.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
544.5 pts under the market
Under 58.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54opened 58.5now 58.5FriSat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ole Miss spreadTotal (over)Ole Miss MLLSU ML
Kalshi+129 42¢-155 59¢
LSU -2.5 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
LSU to win · -139
We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52.
Not Nasty
the Under 58.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.5 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.0+231
FPI+6.5+197
Sagarin-0.5-106
Massey-2.5-130
Market (1 books)+2.5+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.554.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLSU Tigers -2.5-110-110-0.1%
MoneylineLSU Tigers ML-139-132-1.4%
TotalUnder 58.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.5.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sun Sep 20

10 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta FalconsPanthers at Falcons
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Falcons by 1.5, our data says Falcons by 1
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Panthers than the bookmore Falcons →
Market
Falcons by 1.5
The Four
nfelo
Panthers by 1
FPI
Panthers by 1
Sagarin
Panthers by 0.5
Massey
Panthers by 0.5
Nasty Number
Falcons by 10.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Falcons by 1opened Falcons by 1.5now Falcons by 1.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.50.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.50.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.5opened 42.5now 42.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
Kalshi-103 49¢
All 6 books
Falcons spreadTotal (over)Falcons MLPanthers ML
Kalshi-103 49¢
BetRivers-1.5 -11043.5 -110-124+102
Caesars-1.5 -10842.5 -110
DraftKings-1.5 -11042.5 -110-125+105
FanDuel-1.5 +10042.5 -110-108-108
MyBookie.ag-1 -11042.5 -110-122-104

Marked: best for the Falcons side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Panthers +1.5 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Panthers to win · +102
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Atlanta Falcons ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Michael Penix Jr. (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

QB out: Tua Tagovailoa (Falcons), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Trevor Etienne (RB, Panthers), Taylor Moton (OT, Panthers), Brady Christensen (G, Panthers) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onFalcons by 121% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+1.0-120
FPI+1.0-120
Sagarin+0.5-128
Massey+0.5-129
Market (5 books)-1.5-108
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCarolina Panthers +1.5-110+101-2.5%
MoneylineCarolina Panthers ML+102+112-2.4%
TotalOver 42.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

New Orleans Saints at Baltimore RavensSaints at Ravens
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 46.5
should be 45.4 · getting 1.1 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Saints than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 7.5
The Four
nfelo
Ravens by 9.5
FPI
Ravens by 8
Sagarin
Ravens by 9.5
Massey
Ravens by 2.5
Nasty Number
Ravens by 80.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 8opened Ravens by 7.5now Ravens by 7.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
Massey
42.83.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.83.7 pts under the market
Under 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 46.5now 46.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
Kalshi-381 78¢
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11046.5 -110
All 9 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLSaints ML
Kalshi-381 78¢
BetOnline.ag-7.5 -11046.5 -110
BetRivers-7.5 -11246.5 -110-400+300
BetUS-7.5 -11046.5 -110
Caesars-7.5 -10946.5 -110
DraftKings-7.5 -11046.5 -110-355+280
FanDuel-8.5 -10446.5 -118-460+360
LowVig.ag-7.5 -10546.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-8 -11046.5 -110-410+290

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ravens -7.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Ravens to win · -400
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 80. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 69.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. That's 3.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New Orleans Saints ML, only $53 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Adam Randall (RB, Ravens), Audric Estime (RB, Saints), Oscar Delp (TE, Saints) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 830% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-9.5-323
FPI-8.0-278
Sagarin-9.5-319
Massey-2.5-134
Market (8 books)-7.5-325
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.542.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaltimore Ravens -7.5-110+114-5.7%
MoneylineBaltimore Ravens ML-400-270-7.0%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago BearsVikings at Bears
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 45.5
should be 44.8 · getting 0.9 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Vikings than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3
The Four
nfelo
Bears by 2.5
FPI
Bears by 3.5
Sagarin
Bears by 3.5
Massey
Bears by 2
Nasty Number
Bears by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3opened Bears by 3now Bears by 3Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5
The Four
Massey
41.44.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.44.2 pts under the market
Under 45.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.4opened 45.5now 45.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
Kalshi-161 60¢+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10545.5 -110
All 9 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLVikings ML
Kalshi-161 60¢+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10545.5 -110
BetRivers-3 -11045.5 -112-165+135
BetUS-3 +10545.5 -110
Caesars-3 -10445.5 -114
DraftKings-3 -11045.5 -110-170+142
FanDuel-3 -10546.5 -110-154+130
LowVig.ag-3 +11045.5 -107
MyBookie.ag-3 -11046 -110-168+131

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -110
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bears to win · -165
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54.
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -110
Massey projects 41. That's 4.2 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Ben Yurosek (TE, Vikings), Michael Jurgens (C, Vikings), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-137
FPI-3.5-155
Sagarin-3.5-154
Massey-2.0-127
Market (8 books)-3.0-146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.541.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears -3.0-110+101-2.7%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML-165-144-3.2%
TotalUnder 45.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cincinnati Bengals at Houston TexansBengals at Texans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Texans by 2.5, our data says Texans by 2.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Bengals than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5
The Four
nfelo
Texans by 2.5
FPI
Texans by 2
Sagarin
Texans by 3
Massey
Texans by 2.5
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2.5opened Texans by 2.5now Texans by 2.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
Massey
471.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
471.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 45.5now 45.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
Kalshi-148 58¢+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10345.5 -105
All 9 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLBengals ML
Kalshi-148 58¢+118 44¢
BetOnline.ag-3 +10345.5 -105
BetRivers-2.5 -11246 -113-141+116
BetUS-3 +10545.5 -105
Caesars-2.5 -11445.5 -113-139+119
DraftKings-2.5 -11845.5 -110-148+124
FanDuel-2.5 -11046.5 -110-136+116
LowVig.ag-3 +10845.5 -102
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11046 -110-146+115

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bengals +2.5 · -110
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Bengals to win · +117
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Over 46.0 · -110
Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Jayden Higgins (WR, Texans), Tank Dell (WR, Texans), Braden Smith (OT, Texans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-2.5-138
FPI-2.0-126
Sagarin-3.0-144
Massey-2.5-133
Market (8 books)-2.5-128
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.047.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bengals +2.5-110+111-5.0%
MoneylineCincinnati Bengals ML+117+138-4.0%
TotalOver 46.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Cleveland Browns at Tampa Bay BuccaneersBrowns at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Buccaneers by 6.5, our data says Buccaneers by 6.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Browns than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Buccaneers by 6.5
The Four
nfelo
Buccaneers by 8
FPI
Buccaneers by 7.5
Sagarin
Buccaneers by 7.5
Massey
Buccaneers by 2.5
Nasty Number
Buccaneers by 6.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Buccaneers by 6.5opened Buccaneers by 6.5now Buccaneers by 6.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41
The Four
Massey
40.8on the market
Nasty Number
40.8on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.8opened 42.5now 42.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
Kalshi-290 73¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11840.5 -115
All 9 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLBrowns ML
Kalshi-290 73¢
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11840.5 -115
BetRivers-6.5 -11041.5 -110-295+230
BetUS-6.5 -12040.5 -115
Caesars-6.5 -11740.5 -124
DraftKings-6.5 -11042.5 -110-285+230
FanDuel-6.5 -12040.5 -105-330+265
LowVig.ag-6.5 -10940.5 -113
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -11041 -110-319+236

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers -6.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Buccaneers to win · -295
We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 65.
Not Nasty
the Under 41.0 · -110
Massey projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Cleveland Browns ML, only $194 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Dillon Gabriel (Browns), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Sean Tucker (RB, Buccaneers), Jalen McMillan (WR, Buccaneers), Justin Skule (OT, Buccaneers) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onBuccaneers by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.0-265
FPI-7.5-249
Sagarin-7.5-251
Massey-2.5-131
Market (8 books)-6.5-256
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.040.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers -6.5-110+109-4.6%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML-295-228-5.2%
TotalUnder 41.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Green Bay Packers at New York JetsPackers at Jets
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
No bet
market says Packers by 5.5, our data says Packers by 5.5
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Jets →
Market
Packers by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Packers by 5.5
FPI
Packers by 6
Sagarin
Packers by 7
Massey
Jets by 1.5
Nasty Number
Packers by 5.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Packers by 5.5opened Packers by 5.5now Packers by 5.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.61.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.61.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.6opened 42.5now 42.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
Kalshi+189 33¢-250 70¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
All 9 books
Jets spreadTotal (over)Jets MLPackers ML
Kalshi+189 33¢-250 70¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
BetRivers+5.5 -10942.5 -112+200-245
BetUS+5.5 -11542.5 -110
Caesars+5.5 -10942.5 -110+200-245
DraftKings+5.5 -11042.5 -110+200-245
FanDuel+5.5 -11042.5 -118+200-245
LowVig.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -110+189-250

Marked: best for the Jets side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Packers -5.5 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Packers to win · -245
We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Kene Nwangwu (RB, Jets), Josh Jacobs (RB, Packers), Tim Patrick (WR, Jets) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.5+198
FPI+6.0+206
Sagarin+7.0+239
Massey-1.5-120
Market (8 books)+5.5+212
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGreen Bay Packers -5.5-110+107-4.2%
MoneylineGreen Bay Packers ML-245-197-4.6%
TotalOver 42.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England PatriotsSteelers at Patriots
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Under 43.5
should be 42.7 · getting 0.8 pts
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Patriots →
Market
Patriots by 4.5
The Four
nfelo
Patriots by 4.5
FPI
Patriots by 3.5
Sagarin
hasn't seen New England Patriots's last game
Massey
Patriots by 1.5
Nasty Number
Patriots by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Patriots by 4opened Patriots by 4.5now Patriots by 4.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5
The Four
Massey
39.73.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.73.8 pts under the market
Under 43.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.7opened 43.5now 43.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+152 38¢
All 5 books
Patriots spreadTotal (over)Patriots MLSteelers ML
Kalshi+152 38¢
BetRivers-4.5 -11043.5 -112-210+170
Caesars-4.5 -10543.5 -110-200+160
DraftKings-4.5 -10543.5 -110-205+170
MyBookie.ag-4.5 -11043.5 -110-214+164

Marked: best for the Patriots side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Steelers +4.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Steelers to win · +164
We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 33.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.5 · -110
Massey projects 40. That's 3.8 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 43.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots ML, only $264 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: A.J. Brown (WR, Patriots), Efton Chism III (WR, Patriots), Jack Driscoll (OT, Steelers) and 5 more.

Pittsburgh Steelers has had 23 days off against 10, worth about 0.7 points.

Full detail
We settle onPatriots by 421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-4.5-188
FPI-3.5-161
Sagarinhasn't seen New England Patriots's last game
Massey-1.5-131
Market (4 books)-4.5-179
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.539.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers +4.5-110-115+1.1%
MoneylinePittsburgh Steelers ML+164+168-0.5%
TotalUnder 43.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee TitansEagles at Titans
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 12:00pm
Titans to win
our data says 34 in 100 · +198 · a price bet, they lose more often than not
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Titans →
Market
Eagles by 5.5
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 5
FPI
Eagles by 4
Sagarin
Eagles by 5
Massey
Titans by 1.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 5.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 5.5opened Eagles by 5.5now Eagles by 5.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
43.71.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.71.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.7opened 42.5now 42.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
Kalshi-263 71¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
All 9 books
Titans spreadTotal (over)Titans MLEagles ML
Kalshi-263 71¢
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -11542.5 -110
BetRivers+5.5 -11042.5 -110+200-245
BetUS+5.5 -11542.5 -110
Caesars+5.5 -10942.5 -107+198-240
DraftKings+5.5 -11042.5 -110+190-230
FanDuel+5.5 -11041.5 -115+210-255
LowVig.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -107
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11042.5 -110+189-250

Marked: best for the Titans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +5.5 · -110
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · +198
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30.
Not Nasty
the Over 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Titans to win · +198. A price bet, Titans loses more often than not.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Grant Calcaterra (TE, Eagles), Jakorian Bennett (CB, Eagles), Kendell Brooks (S, Titans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 5.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+5.0+186
FPI+4.0+162
Sagarin+5.0+188
Massey-1.5-119
Market (8 books)+5.5+211
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.543.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +5.5-110-111+0.2%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+198+191+0.8%
TotalOver 42.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver BroncosJaguars at Broncos
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
No bet
market says Broncos by 3, our data says Broncos by 3
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Broncos →
Market
Broncos by 3
The Four
nfelo
Broncos by 3
FPI
Broncos by 2.5
Sagarin
Broncos by 3
Massey
Broncos by 2
Nasty Number
Broncos by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Broncos by 3opened Broncos by 3now Broncos by 3Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
Massey
42.61.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.61.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.6opened 43.5now 43.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
Kalshi-161 60¢+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -11544.5 -110
All 8 books
Broncos spreadTotal (over)Broncos MLJaguars ML
Kalshi-161 60¢+124 43¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -11544.5 -110
BetRivers-3 -10944.5 -110-148+120
BetUS-3 -11544.5 -110
Caesars-3 -10944.5 -106-154+131
DraftKings-3 -11043.5 -110-155+130
FanDuel-3 -11044.5 -118-156+132
LowVig.ag-3 -11044.5 -107

Marked: best for the Broncos side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough.
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +131
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 37.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110
Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Also out: Caleb Lohner (TE, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onBroncos by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-3.0-142
FPI-2.5-132
Sagarin-3.0-144
Massey-2.0-128
Market (7 books)-3.0-138
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.542.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +3.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+131+142-2.0%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Las Vegas Raiders at Los Angeles ChargersRaiders at Chargers
NFL Sun 20 Sep, 3:05pm
Under 42.5
should be 41.7 · getting 0.8 pts
WaitingBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Raiders than the bookmore Chargers →
Market
Chargers by 9.5
The Four
nfelo
Chargers by 7
FPI
Chargers by 9.5
Sagarin
Chargers by 10.5
Massey
Chargers by 2.5
Nasty Number
Chargers by 90.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chargers by 9opened Chargers by 9.5now Chargers by 9.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
42.5
The Four
Massey
38.83.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
38.83.7 pts under the market
Under 42.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 38.8opened 42.5now 42.5Sat

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Raiders +9.5 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price.
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · +320
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate.
Off the band
the Under 42.5 · -110
Massey projects 39. That's 3.7 points under the market.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 42.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Brock Bowers (TE, Raiders), Carter Runyon (TE, Raiders) and 6 more.

Full detail
We settle onChargers by 921% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.0-231
FPI-9.5-336
Sagarin-10.5-379
Massey-2.5-134
Market (7 books)-9.5-359
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points42.538.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +9.5-110-116+1.4%
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+320+311priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 42.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks1-0100%+0.91 units1 game

Closing line value: +1.0 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 1 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +0.91 units
WonAppalachian State Mountaineers +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan Wolverines MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty0-0nothing graded yet0 games

No Damn Near Nasty graded yet.

A Little Nasty2-167%+0.82 units3 games

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.82 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

8 picks voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Michigan State Spartans (spread), Arkansas Razorbacks (spread), Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (spread), Ohio State Buckeyes (moneyline), Minnesota Golden Gophers (moneyline), California Golden Bears (moneyline), Texas A&M Aggies (spread), San Diego State Aztecs (spread).

1 pick voided, not graded, not counted. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: Texas State Bobcats (spread).

The group

Nobody's logged a bet yet. Tick the plays you took, put your name in and hit Log my bets. Everyone's record shows up here once the games finish.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick1-0100.0%+0.9 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
A Little Nasty2-166.7%+0.8 usmall sample
Not Nasty20 gamesno call to grade

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The totals bet that's measured to work is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

How it's going

5-4Record
+1.6Units
+18.0%ROI
3Open

It's 9 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.27Sides: pts vs close, 20 bets, beat it 45%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

54 priced · 2 Nasty Picks · 12 a little nasty · 2 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Thu · audit clean

14 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing. 26 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.
Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 14 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Thu 17 Sep, 7:15pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 68 games across 12 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 8 were worth a second look. 2 cleared every check.

Since 3:16pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 3.0Miami Hurricanes at Wake Forest Demon Deaconstoward Miami Hurricaneswith the public
  • → 0.5Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiderstoward Miami Dolphinsagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
11.02Points off per game at that weight
11.02The market on its own
29Games graded

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
The market2911.02
Sagarin2712.51

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.514-1450%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 322358 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.16 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi403.00
LowVig.ag1121.34
BetOnline.ag1161.31
DraftKings1411.18
Caesars1231.12
BetRivers1511.12
BetMGM1071.10
Fanatics1421.10
FanDuel1641.09
Bovada1081.08
TOM1051.04
Pinnacle1071.00
BetUS790.91
MyBookie.ag860.90

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated 3 days ago
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated 3 days ago
  • Sagarin updated 4 days ago
  • Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
  • nfelo updated 2 days ago
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Built 3:21 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 15295.