Nasty
PICKS
picks with receiptsOPEN
College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.
Nasty Picks
A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.
Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3-104 at Caesars+4.4%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +3.5 -107. Now Pittsburgh +3 -104, half a point worse. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 0.5 pts+3.5 open Sunnow +3Nasty Number +2Texas State at San Diego StateSan Diego State +7-110 at Fanatics+3.8%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 10:33pm at +4.5 -106. Now San Diego State +7 -110, 2.5 points better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.shrinking, 3.5 pts+3.5 open Sunnow +7Nasty Number +5.5Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1 ptOhio -3 -110 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 9:14amStill a playSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Ohio -3.5 · -102 at FanDuel, half a point worse, 8 cents better than the -3 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Temple at South FloridaMoved our way · 3 ptsSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsNasty Pick · called Mon 8:26amDon't chaseSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -112 at DraftKings. The number is a point worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -110 to -112, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better.Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amDon't chaseSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings on Monday; now Cincinnati +7 · -115 at Fanatics. The number hasn't moved but the price is 13 cents worse, from -102 to -115, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +7, you're set. It's a play again at +7 -102 or better.
Buck's Take
Five Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Pittsburgh +3, San Diego State +7, Ohio -3 -110 at TOM, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings and South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.
UCF at Houston, UCF +12. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 12. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +14.
Baylor at Arizona State, Baylor +3.5. Every system has Baylor by 2.5; the market has Arizona State by 3.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +3.5.
A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Massachusetts -6.5 (Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts) at 5.6% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is North Texas at Tulsa, Over 56.5, down 1 since the open.
If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh +3. The number's wrong and the Four agree. That's the receipt.
Buck
Nasty Dogs
Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.
Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh to win+140 at Fanatics+5.1%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Texas State at San Diego StateSan Diego State to win+235 at FanDuel+4.5%Sat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.Damn Near Nasty
5 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
5 more later this week
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +4 for -108 at BetMGM, or +4.5 for -115 at FanDuel · half a point away
Where, best first (Baylor): BetMGM +4 at -108 (7.9%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (7.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -110 (7.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (7.4%) · TOM +3.5 at -104 (7.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +4 (the games that land on 4); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Commanders): Kalshi +3.5 at 49¢ (2.8%) · TOM +4 at -110 (2.7%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -105 (2.4%) · BetMGM +4 at -112 (2.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars +3.5 at -108 (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +4 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +3.5 (the games that land on 4); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 49¢. A wash; either is fine.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (Cowboys): DraftKings +3 at -108 (3.4%) · FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +3 at -110 (3.0%) · Caesars +3 at -111 (2.8%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 55¢ (2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +3.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than +3 (the games that land on 3); 55¢ costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.
Where, best first (49ers): Fanatics or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (2.4%) · TOM -2.5 at -116 (2.2%) · BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (1.7%) · DraftKings -3 at +100 (1.7%) · Caesars or FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Becomes a Nasty Pick at +14 for -110 at Fanatics · 2 points away
Where, best first (UCF): Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (0.8%) · TOM +12 at -108 (0.7%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +11.5 at -107 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +11.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.A Little Nasty
Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.
Moving our way: North Texas at Tulsa, Over 56.5. Best number on the board, 1 point better than Pinnacle, and the total has come down 1 point since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 56.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 49¢ (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 57.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (1.1%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.0%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -110 (-0.3%).19 more later this week
Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 58.5 at -108 (1.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 58.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Kalshi or Caesars 58.5 at -112 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 57.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 58.5 (the games that land on 58); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 42 at -110 (1.0%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 42.5 at 51¢ (-0.9%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 42.5 at -115 (-1.7%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Miami (OH)): FanDuel -13.5 at -105 (2.0%) · BetMGM -13 at -110 (1.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 51¢ (0.5%) · TOM -13 at -116 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Massachusetts): DraftKings -6.5 at -105 (5.6%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -108 (4.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -6.5 at -110 (4.4%) · Kalshi -6.5 at 51¢ (4.0%) · TOM -6.5 at -113 (3.7%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (4.4%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -112 (4.0%) · Caesars 45.5 at -113 (3.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 46 at -110 (3.3%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 52¢ (3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 48 at -105 (2.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (1.7%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (1.2%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 49¢ (1.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 47.5 at -115 (1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 47.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); -112 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Jaguars): Kalshi or Fanatics +2.5 at +101 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (1.9%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (1.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Fresno State): Caesars +1.5 at -103 (1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (1.4%) · BetMGM +2 at -110 (1.3%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM +1.5 at -110 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +2 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1.5 (the games that land on 2); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -103. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Michigan State): Caesars +10 at -102 (1.7%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +10 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +9.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · TOM +10 at -113 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 50¢ (-1.5%).Where to bet it
Where, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -9.5 at -112 (1.6%) · TOM -10 at -105 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars -10 at -108 (0.8%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (UConn): TOM +6.5 at +103 (1.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (1.3%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (0.6%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -102 (0.2%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 50¢ (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +7 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than +6.5 (the games that land on 7); -112 costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than +103. A wash; either is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (1.8%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (1.4%) · TOM 47.5 at -109 (1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Giants): Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -107 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (0.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -110 (0.9%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (0.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi 50.5 at -107 (0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (0.0%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (South Alabama): DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -14 at -108 (0.9%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (0.6%) · Fanatics -14 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 53¢ (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -14 (the games that land on 14); -118 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins by a hair.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +14.5 at -110 (0.9%) · TOM +14 at -102 (0.8%) · Caesars or Kalshi +14.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): Caesars 47.5 at -105 (1.1%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 47.5 at -107 (0.6%) · TOM 48 at -115 (0.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.6%).Points or price: 48 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 48); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 46¢ (-0.2%) · Fanatics 51.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Where to bet it
Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (0.4%) · Caesars 47.5 at -106 (0.2%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 50¢ (-0.1%) · TOM 48 at -115 (-0.2%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 47.5 (the games that land on 48); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.Moved closer since the Wed 30 Sep, 6:06pm build
Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Wed 30 Sep, 6:06pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.
- UCF at Houston Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · Damn Near Nasty now
Climbed to Damn Near Nasty. - North Texas at Tulsa 8:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +1.5 to +1.0; the price from -118 to -105. - Syracuse at UConn Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +6.0 to +6.5; the price from +101 to +103. - Purdue at Illinois Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -110 to -105. - Army at Louisiana Tech Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty. - Arkansas State at Louisiana Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -115 to -120. - San José State at Hawai'i Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -3.0 to -2.5; the price from +100 to -115. - Jaguars at Bengals Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The price from -105 to +101.
And 11 more that moved.
Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
Today
3 gamesBest: A Little Nasty · Over, North Texas at TulsaNorth Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at TulsaCFB 8:00pmOver 56.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be 58.3 · getting 1.8 ptsA Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 56.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says North Texas by 1, the Nasty Number says North Texas by 1. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to North Texas by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 57.5 -103 | +103 | -116 |
All 22 books
| Tulsa spread | Total (over) | Tulsa ML | North Texas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1 -105 | 56.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Kalshi | +1.5 -107 50¢ | 57.5 -103 49¢ | +101 48¢ | -121 53¢ |
| Bally Bet | PK -108 | 57.5 -108 | -108 | -112 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| BetMGM | +1 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -105 | -115 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1 -109 | 56.5 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| betPARX | PK -108 | 57.5 -108 | -108 | -112 |
| BetRivers | PK -109 | 57.5 -109 | -109 | -113 |
| BetUS | +1 -110 | 57 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| Bovada | +1.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +100 | -120 |
| Caesars | +1 -112 | 57.5 -105 | -104 | -116 |
| Courtside | +1.5 -115 | 56.5 -119 | -106 | -110 |
| DraftKings | +1.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | -108 | -112 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +1.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48¢ -100 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in |
| Fanatics | +1.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -105 | -115 |
| FanDuel | -1.5 +102 | 57.5 -110 | -106 | -113 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +1.5 -125 | 57.5 -110 | -110 | -110 |
| LowVig.ag | +1 -105 | 56.5 -108 | -105 | -115 |
| MyBookie.ag | +1.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -103 | -118 |
| Pinnacle | +1 -101 | 57.5 -103 | +103 | -116 |
| ReBet | PK -111 | 57 -116 | -108 | -113 |
| theScore Bet | +1.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 3.4 toward North Texas).
TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.5 | -179 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +132 |
| Sagarin | -1.5 | -109 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +311 |
| Market (19 books) | +1.0 | -100 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 59.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tulsa Golden Hurricane +1.0 | -105 | -102 | -0.8% |
| Moneyline | Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML | +101 | +104 | -0.8% |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -110 | -120 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.8.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico StateCFB 7:00pmWestern Kentucky +2.5should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from New Mexico State by 1 to New Mexico State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -105 | 57 -105 | -131 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 57.5 +100 | -123 | +109 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico State spread | Total (over) | New Mexico State ML | Western Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -105 | 57 -105 | -131 | +111 |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -137 | +112 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -105 | -130 | +110 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 56.5 -120 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -114 | 57 -105 | -134 | +114 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -137 | +112 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -109 | 57.5 -109 | -139 | +112 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 56.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -134 | +114 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -103 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -108 | 57.5 -105 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 55¢ -132 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -130 | +110 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -106 | 56.5 -114 | -126 | +105 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 57 -103 | -134 | +114 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 57 -110 | -135 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 57.5 +100 | -123 | +109 |
| ReBet | -2 -116 | 57 -114 | -132 | +108 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.
DraftKings Predictions has the total at 54.5 while Pinnacle is at 57.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.5% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.0 | -103 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +182 |
| Market (19 books) | -2.5 | -125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 56.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers ML | +111 | +112 | -0.3% |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 3.9.
TOM: total 57.0 here against 57.3 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at BrownsNFL 7:15pmSteelers -3should be Steelers -2.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 3, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Steelers by 2.5 to Steelers by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 38 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -118 | 38.5 -104 | +132 | -146 |
All 26 books
| Browns spread | Total (over) | Browns ML | Steelers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +127 | -152 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +101 48¢ | 38.5 -107 50¢ | +124 43¢ | -148 58¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -118 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetAnything | +3 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +132 | -152 |
| BetMGM | +3 -118 | 38.5 -108 | +125 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +133 | -153 |
| betPARX | +3 -118 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetRivers | +3 -118 | 38 -110 | +123 | -148 |
| BetUS | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +134 | -155 |
| Bovada | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| Caesars | +3 -118 | 38.5 -110 | +127 | -150 |
| Courtside | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -103 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -105 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 39.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -105 | +125 | -150 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -102 | 38.5 -105 | +122 | -144 |
| Fliff | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -115 | +125 | -155 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 +100 | 38.5 -110 | +130 | -150 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 -116 | 38.5 -107 | +133 | -153 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +126 | -148 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -118 | 38.5 -104 | +132 | -146 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +108 | 38.5 +104 | +133 | -138 |
| ReBet | +3 -120 | 38.5 -110 | +126 | -149 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 77°F.
Also out: Dylan Sampson (RB, Browns), Rico Dowdle (RB, Steelers), Tylan Wallace (WR, Browns) and 5 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +3.0 | +147 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +133 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 37.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cleveland Browns +3.0 | -120 | -117 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Cleveland Browns ML | +127 | +129 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 38.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Tomorrow
3 gamesBest: Pittsburgh +3.0, NastiestPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia TechCFB tomorrow 6:00pmPittsburgh +3should be Pittsburgh +2 · getting 1 pt · -104 at Caesars · was +6NastiestBet itBuck's case ›
Nastiest. Take Pittsburgh +3.0 at -104 at Caesars. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Pittsburgh is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -158 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -162 | +140 |
All 23 books
| Virginia Tech spread | Total (over) | Virginia Tech ML | Pittsburgh ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -158 | +133 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 54.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -120 | 55 -107 | -165 | +133 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 55 -110 | -165 | +145 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -165 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -116 | 54.5 -115 | -163 | +143 |
| betPARX | -3 -120 | 55 -107 | -165 | +133 |
| BetRivers | -3 -120 | 54.5 -115 | -167 | +133 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -165 | +142 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 55 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -117 | 54.5 -117 | -164 | +139 |
| Courtside | -3 -113 | 54.5 -116 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -115 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 41¢ +133 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 +100 | 55 -110 | -170 | +140 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -118 | -162 | +132 |
| Fliff | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -125 | -170 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 54.5 -115 | -165 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -106 | 54.5 -114 | -163 | +143 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -168 | +137 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -112 | 54.5 -115 | -162 | +140 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 54.5 -119 | -168 | +137 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 55.5 +100 | -165 | +140 |
Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 2.7 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | PK | +100 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +120 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +133 |
| Market (20 books) | -3.0 | -151 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.5 | 50.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Pittsburgh Panthers ML | +140 | +114 | +5.1% |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Panthers +3.0 | -104 | -124 | +4.4% |
| Total | Under 54.5 | -105 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.7 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at DelawareCFB tomorrow 6:00pmDelaware +7should be Delaware +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +240 | -300 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +240 28¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 50 -109 | +245 | -301 |
All 21 books
| Delaware spread | Total (over) | Delaware ML | Liberty ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +240 | -300 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -103 49¢ | +240 28¢ | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +7 +100 | 50 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| BetMGM | +7.5 -118 | 50.5 -105 | +240 | -300 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 +100 | 50 -108 | +245 | -300 |
| betPARX | +7 -108 | 50 -108 | +225 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -109 | 49.5 -114 | +225 | -286 |
| BetUS | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +235 | -280 |
| Bovada | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +250 | -300 |
| Caesars | +7.5 -117 | 49.5 -115 | +235 | -290 |
| Courtside | +7.5 -115 | 49.5 -119 | +236 | -278 |
| DraftKings | +7.5 -115 | 50.5 -105 | +230 | -285 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +7.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 46¢ +108 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7.5 -115 | 50 -110 | +240 | -300 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 +112 | 49.5 -114 | +245 | -310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 49.5 -110 | +225 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 +104 | 50 -106 | +245 | -300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +250 | -319 |
| Pinnacle | +7.5 -112 | 50 -109 | +245 | -301 |
| ReBet | +7.5 -114 | 49.5 -116 | +250 | -319 |
Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Delaware +7.0 · +100 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 34% chance of rain.
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +11.0 | +380 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +180 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +106 |
| Massey | +5.5 | +193 |
| Market (18 books) | +7.0 | +251 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Delaware Blue Hens +7.0 | +100 | -109 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Delaware Blue Hens ML | +240 | +224 | +1.5% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -108 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread +7.0 here against +7.4 consensus.
Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at NorthwesternCFB tomorrow 7:00pmPenn State -2.5should be Penn State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 45 -115 | +117 | -142 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 +101 48¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 45.5 -108 | +123 | -141 |
All 23 books
| Northwestern spread | Total (over) | Northwestern ML | Penn State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -104 | 45 -115 | +117 | -142 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 +105 47¢ | 46.5 +101 48¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetAnything | +3 -120 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -104 | 45 -115 | +122 | -142 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -105 | 45 -110 | +118 | -143 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -106 | 45 -112 | +118 | -148 |
| BetUS | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Bovada | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -103 | 45.5 -112 | +118 | -139 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -106 | 45.5 -110 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +3 -120 | 45.5 -112 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 +100 | 45.5 -110 | +118 | -142 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | +115 | -150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -115 | +120 | -145 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +100 | 45 -114 | +122 | -142 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +116 | -142 |
| Pinnacle | +3 -114 | 45.5 -108 | +123 | -141 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 45.5 -114 | +117 | -143 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -130 | 45.5 -110 | +125 | -145 |
Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +7.0, now +3.0 (the market moved 3.9 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.9 consensus.
TOM: total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +269 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | +100 |
| Massey | rates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales | |
| Market (20 books) | +2.5 | +122 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.0 | 44.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Penn State Nittany Lions -2.5 | -116 | -105 | -2.6% |
| Moneyline | Penn State Nittany Lions ML | -142 | -126 | -2.8% |
| Total | Over 45.0 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.1.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.9 consensus; total 45.0 here against 45.4 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Sat Oct 3
54 gamesBest: San Diego State +7.0, Nasty PickTexas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmSan Diego State +7should be San Diego State +5.5 · getting 1.5 pts · -110 at Fanatics · was +3.5Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Take San Diego State +7.0 at -110 at Fanatics. Market says Texas State by 7, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 5.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 3.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 3.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but San Diego State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59.5 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +210 | -270 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | — | -290 73¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +222 | -270 |
All 19 books
| San Diego State spread | Total (over) | San Diego State ML | Texas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +7 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +210 | -270 |
| Kalshi | +7.5 -126 54¢ | 58.5 -116 52¢ | — | -290 73¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -104 | 59.5 -106 | +265 | -345 |
| BetAnything | — | 58.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +7 -108 | 58.5 -125 | +230 | -285 |
| BetOnline.ag | +7 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +222 | -270 |
| betPARX | +7 -104 | 59.5 -106 | +265 | -345 |
| BetRivers | +7 -104 | 59.5 -107 | +265 | -360 |
| BetUS | +7 -110 | 59 -110 | +225 | -270 |
| Caesars | +7 -113 | 58.5 -117 | +225 | -280 |
| Courtside | +7 -108 | 59.5 -103 | +230 | -271 |
| DraftKings | +7 -110 | 59.5 -105 | +225 | -278 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 57.5 58¢ -150 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -110 | 59 -110 | +225 | -280 |
| FanDuel | +7.5 -122 | 58.5 -114 | +235 | -295 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +7.5 -120 | 58.5 -115 | +260 | -350 |
| LowVig.ag | +7 -106 | 58.5 -108 | +222 | -270 |
| MyBookie.ag | +7 -110 | 59.5 -110 | +218 | -275 |
| theScore Bet | +7.5 -125 | 58.5 -110 | +240 | -290 |
Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 88°F.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 3.6 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 58.5, only $362 available; San Diego State Aztecs ML, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +270 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.0 | +166 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +110 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | PK | +100 |
| Market (16 books) | +7.0 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 59.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | San Diego State Aztecs ML | +235 | +191 | +4.5% |
| Spread | San Diego State Aztecs +7.0 | -110 | -128 | +3.8% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-27 22:42.
TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus; moneyline +219 here against +270 consensus.
Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOhio -3 -110 at TOMMoved our way · 1 ptBet it · now Ohio -3.5 · -102 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called at -3 -110Bet itBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Ohio -3 -110 at TOM. Bet it. Ohio -3.5 · -102 at FanDuel, half a point worse, 8 cents better than the -3 -110 we posted on Monday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Ohio by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 4.5.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 50.5 -113 | +143 | -165 |
All 21 books
| Kent State spread | Total (over) | Kent State ML | Ohio ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -160 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 50.5 | +146 39¢ | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +132 | -165 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +140 | -160 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -112 | +138 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -115 | +140 | -160 |
| betPARX | +3 -105 | 50.5 -108 | +132 | -165 |
| BetRivers | +3 -106 | 50.5 -109 | +132 | -165 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +142 | -165 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -120 | 51 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -110 | +143 | -163 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -118 | 50.5 -112 | +140 | -166 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 63¢ -185 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -114 | +134 | -162 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +130 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -114 | 50.5 -114 | +140 | -160 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +137 | -169 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -116 | 50.5 -113 | +143 | -165 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -125 | 50.5 -116 | +134 | -172 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | +135 | -155 |
Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Ohio Bobcats -3.5, only $12 available; Over 50.5, only $250 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +9.5 | +323 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +312 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +170 |
| Massey | +12.0 | +407 |
| Market (18 books) | +3.5 | +141 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 51.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Ohio Bobcats ML | -160 | -182 | +3.0% |
| Spread | Ohio Bobcats -3.5 | -102 | -113 | +2.5% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -115 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at ArizonaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pmCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsDon't chase · now Cincinnati +7 · -115 at FanaticsNasty Pick · called at +7 -102Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings on Monday; now Cincinnati +7 · -115 at Fanatics. The number hasn't moved but the price is 13 cents worse, from -102 to -115, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +7, you're set. It's a play again at +7 -102 or better. Market says Arizona by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 5.5.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cincinnati is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -238 | +188 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -253 | +210 |
All 21 books
| Arizona spread | Total (over) | Arizona ML | Cincinnati ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -238 | +188 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | — | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 55 -113 | -286 | +220 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -112 | 55.5 -120 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | -238 | +198 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 55 -113 | -286 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7 -113 | 55 -114 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -109 | 55.5 -115 | -260 | +205 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -110 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -115 | 55.5 -112 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 55.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -115 | 56.5 -106 | -250 | +202 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 +100 | 55.5 -105 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -111 | 55.5 -114 | -238 | +198 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 56 -110 | -270 | +212 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 55.5 -110 | -253 | +210 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -260 | +215 |
Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.
Across the books: opened -8.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.7 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -6.5, only $120 available; Over 56.5, only $61 available; Under 56.5, only $416 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.5 | -164 |
| FPI | -0.5 | -102 |
| Sagarin | -5.5 | -197 |
| Massey | -4.0 | -173 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -228 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 57.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0 | -115 | -124 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Cincinnati Bearcats ML | +210 | +197 | +1.4% |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -115 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South FloridaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmSouth Florida -5.5 -110 at CaesarsMoved our way · 3 ptsDon't chase · now South Florida -6.5 · -112 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called at -5.5 -110Don't chaseBuck's case ›
Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted South Florida -5.5 -110 at Caesars on Monday; now South Florida -6.5 · -112 at DraftKings. The number is a point worse and the price is 2 cents worse, from -110 to -112, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -5.5, you're set. It's a play again at -5.5 -110 or better. Market says South Florida by 6.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Florida is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -107 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -241 | +201 |
All 22 books
| South Florida spread | Total (over) | South Florida ML | Temple ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -112 | 48 -107 | -240 | +190 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 | 47.5 -121 53¢ | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -107 | 47.5 -106 | -265 | +200 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -245 | +205 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -105 | -235 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -112 | 48 -107 | -240 | +200 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -107 | 47.5 -106 | -265 | +200 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -108 | 47.5 -107 | -265 | +200 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -105 | 48 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -240 | +200 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -240 | +196 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -106 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -108 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -250 | +202 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | -260 | +200 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -108 | 48 -105 | -240 | +200 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -265 | +208 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -108 | 48 -108 | -241 | +201 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -119 | 48.5 -114 | -270 | +202 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $75 available; Under 47.5, only $42 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -411 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -7.5 | -280 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -393 |
| Market (19 books) | -6.5 | -230 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 57.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Florida Bulls -6.5 | -112 | -117 | +1.2% |
| Moneyline | South Florida Bulls ML | -240 | -251 | +0.9% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -107 | -124 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pmBaylor +3.5should be Baylor +2 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +4.5Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +3.5: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.4% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 49.5 -102 | -182 | +156 |
All 21 books
| Arizona State spread | Total (over) | Arizona State ML | Baylor ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 50.5 +105 47¢ | -182 63¢ | +152 38¢ |
| Bally Bet | -4 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -195 | +155 |
| BetAnything | -4 -110 | 49 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -4 -110 | 48.5 -120 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -116 | 49 -115 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -4 -112 | 48.5 -112 | -195 | +155 |
| BetRivers | -4 -113 | 48.5 -113 | -195 | +150 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -115 | 49 -115 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -4 -105 | 49 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -115 | 49.5 -107 | -182 | +154 |
| Courtside | -4 -106 | 49.5 -106 | -181 | +157 |
| DraftKings | -4 -108 | 49.5 -108 | -185 | +154 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -4 -110 | 49 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| FanDuel | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 -114 | -182 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -4.5 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -190 | +155 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -112 | 49 -114 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -4 -110 | 49 -110 | -204 | +164 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -112 | 49.5 -102 | -182 | +156 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -195 | +165 |
Marked: best for Baylor, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +3.5 · -104 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 0.8 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Arizona State Sun Devils -3.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +3.0 | +136 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +121 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -182 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (18 books) | -3.5 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 49.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Baylor Bears +3.5 | -104 | -140 | +7.4% |
| Moneyline | Baylor Bears ML | +150 | +115 | +6.6% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -115 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 2.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at HoustonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUCF +12should be UCF +10.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. UCF +12.0: all 4 ratings 5.7 points our way. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 51 -112 | -472 | +358 |
All 22 books
| Houston spread | Total (over) | Houston ML | UCF ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -12 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -460 | +330 |
| Kalshi | -11.5 | 51.5 -107 50¢ | -430 80¢ | +351 21¢ |
| Bally Bet | -12 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -480 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -475 | +365 |
| BetMGM | -12 -108 | 51.5 +100 | -475 | +375 |
| BetOnline.ag | -12 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -460 | +358 |
| betPARX | -12 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -480 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -12 -112 | 51.5 -112 | -480 | +335 |
| BetUS | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -460 | +360 |
| Bovada | -12 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -480 | +350 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -109 | 51.5 -108 | -440 | +340 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | -440 | +360 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -112 | 51.5 -102 | -455 | +350 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 82¢ -526 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in |
| Fanatics | -12.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -475 | +360 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -106 | 51.5 -104 | -520 | +385 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -475 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -12 -108 | 51.5 -103 | -460 | +358 |
| MyBookie.ag | -12 -110 | 51 -110 | -526 | +370 |
| Pinnacle | -12.5 -103 | 51 -112 | -472 | +358 |
| ReBet | -12.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | -549 | +360 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +12.0 · -108 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 42% chance of rain.
A play at +14.0 or better.
Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -11.5, only $13 available; Under 51.5, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.5 | -195 |
| FPI | -7.0 | -255 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -284 |
| Massey | -4.5 | -178 |
| Market (19 books) | -12.0 | -440 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UCF Knights +12.0 | -108 | -111 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | UCF Knights ML | +385 | +364 | priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at MassachusettsCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMassachusetts -6.5should be Massachusetts -8 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings · was -4.5A Little Nasty · MassachusettsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Massachusetts. Market says Massachusetts by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 8. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Massachusetts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | -236 | +197 |
All 21 books
| Massachusetts spread | Total (over) | Massachusetts ML | Eastern Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +185 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 | -239 69¢ | +198 32¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -108 | 48.5 -115 | -235 | +195 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -112 | -235 | +195 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -112 | 48.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 -110 | -265 | +205 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +200 |
| Bovada | -6 -115 | 49 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -105 | 48.5 -113 | -232 | +199 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -238 | +195 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -245 | +200 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 49.5 -106 | -240 | +195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 48.5 -110 | -235 | +195 |
| MyBookie.ag | — | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -102 | 48.5 -115 | -236 | +197 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -116 | 48.5 -119 | -265 | +198 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 +100 | 49.5 -105 | -225 | +190 |
Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -6.5 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.
Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.8 toward Massachusetts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Eastern Michigan Eagles +6.5, only $12 available; Over 49.5, only $36 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.0 | -483 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -418 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -217 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +112 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -225 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UMass Minutemen -6.5 | -105 | -131 | +5.6% |
| Moneyline | UMass Minutemen ML | -235 | -283 | +3.7% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-27 22:42.
TOM matches the consensus.
Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.
Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmMiami (OH) -13.5Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was -14.5A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 46 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -116 | 43 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -114 | 43 -112 | -592 | +429 |
All 21 books
| Miami (OH) spread | Total (over) | Miami (OH) ML | Bowling Green ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -13 -116 | 43 -110 | -575 | +405 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -112 51¢ | 43.5 | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 43 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 43.5 -108 | -550 | +425 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -116 | 43 -110 | -575 | +431 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -108 | 43.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -13 -115 | 43 -110 | -575 | +440 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -600 | +425 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -108 | 43.5 -103 | -553 | +439 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | -575 | +425 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -575 | +425 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -108 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 43.5 -115 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -112 | 43 -108 | -575 | +431 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13.5 -110 | 43 -110 | -676 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -114 | 43 -112 | -592 | +429 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 43.5 -111 | -699 | +440 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -105 | 43.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.0. The market has moved 1.3 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1623 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -575 |
| Sagarin | -18.0 | -723 |
| Massey | -11.5 | -388 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -550 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.5 | -105 | -114 | +2.0% |
| Moneyline | Miami (OH) RedHawks ML | -575 | -509 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 43.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at IllinoisCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmIllinois -10should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -9.5A Little Nasty · IllinoisBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Illinois. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 62 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 61.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 61.5 -111 | -389 | +305 |
All 22 books
| Illinois spread | Total (over) | Illinois ML | Purdue ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Kalshi | -10.5 | 61.5 | -381 78¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -10 -114 | 61.5 -108 | -455 | +335 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -390 | +310 |
| BetMGM | -9.5 -112 | 62.5 -105 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -105 | 62.5 -110 | -370 | +296 |
| betPARX | -10 -114 | 61.5 -108 | -455 | +335 |
| BetRivers | -10 -115 | 61.5 -109 | -455 | +335 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -370 | +295 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 61.5 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -10 -108 | 62.5 -106 | -390 | +305 |
| Courtside | -10 -106 | 61.5 -113 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -10 -108 | 61.5 -115 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 62 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -102 | 62.5 -106 | -400 | +310 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -10.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | -450 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -101 | 62.5 -108 | -370 | +296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 62.5 -110 | -370 | +280 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 61.5 -111 | -389 | +305 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 62.5 -111 | -380 | +275 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 62.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Illinois -10.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.5 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5, only $95 available; Over 61.5, only $78 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 62.5 here against 61.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -17.0 | -657 |
| FPI | -12.0 | -409 |
| Sagarin | -12.5 | -423 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -437 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -354 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.5 | 66.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Illinois Fighting Illini -10.0 | -105 | -111 | +1.5% |
| Moneyline | Illinois Fighting Illini ML | -370 | -377 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 62.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: total 62.5 here against 61.8 consensus.
San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'iCFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pmUnder 51.5should be 50.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 57.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 51.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 49.5 -136 56¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
All 19 books
| Hawai'i spread | Total (over) | Hawai'i ML | San José State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 49.5 -136 56¢ | -143 57¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -148 | +118 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -3 -102 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -3 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -148 | +118 |
| BetRivers | -3 -106 | 50.5 -117 | -148 | +118 |
| BetUS | — | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -3 -105 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +121 |
| Courtside | -3 -103 | 51.5 -106 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 -105 | 51.5 -108 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 51.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -105 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 50.5 -115 | -145 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -104 | 51.5 -108 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -148 | +121 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -120 | 51.5 -105 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 14 mph wind, 83°F. Total pulled down 1.4 for it.
Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -5.0 | -187 |
| FPI | -4.5 | -175 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -187 |
| Massey | -2.5 | -120 |
| Market (16 books) | -3.0 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 47.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -2.5 | -115 | -124 | +1.9% |
| Moneyline | Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML | -145 | -151 | +0.9% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 6.3.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at WisconsinCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30amMichigan State +10should be Michigan State +9 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsA Little Nasty · Michigan StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Michigan State. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -107 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 43.5 -105 | -390 | +305 |
All 22 books
| Wisconsin spread | Total (over) | Wisconsin ML | Michigan State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10 -107 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +295 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 | 43.5 -112 51¢ | -381 78¢ | +313 23¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10 -112 | 43.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -395 | +315 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 43.5 -110 | -375 | +310 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10 -107 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +306 |
| betPARX | -10 -112 | 43.5 -109 | -385 | +290 |
| BetRivers | -10 -113 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +290 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +308 |
| Bovada | -10 -105 | 43 -115 | -400 | +300 |
| Caesars | -10 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| Courtside | -10 -108 | 43.5 -108 | -397 | +329 |
| DraftKings | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -410 | +320 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 79¢ -426 all-in | 24¢ +285 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -400 | +310 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -118 | 43.5 -110 | -385 | +300 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -120 | 43.5 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| LowVig.ag | -10 -103 | 43.5 -108 | -385 | +306 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 43.5 -110 | -380 | +286 |
| Pinnacle | -10 -104 | 43.5 -105 | -390 | +305 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -105 | 43.5 -116 | -420 | +295 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 +100 | 43.5 -110 | -450 | +340 |
Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +10.0 · -102 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.
Kalshi thin: Wisconsin Badgers -9.5, only $46 available; Under 43.5, only $490 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -9.0 | -305 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -202 |
| Sagarin | -11.0 | -381 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -204 |
| Market (19 books) | -10.0 | -368 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 41.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan State Spartans +10.0 | -102 | -109 | +1.7% |
| Moneyline | Michigan State Spartans ML | +320 | +310 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 43.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
TOM matches the consensus.
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pmFresno State +1.5should be Fresno State +0.5 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsA Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts
Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 46 +100 | -119 | +104 |
All 21 books
| Washington State spread | Total (over) | Washington State ML | Fresno State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -121 53¢ | +101 48¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -107 | -134 | +108 |
| BetAnything | -1.5 -110 | 45 -110 | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -2 -108 | 45.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| BetOnline.ag | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -107 | -134 | +108 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -108 | 46.5 -108 | -134 | +108 |
| BetUS | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Bovada | -2 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -1.5 -118 | 45.5 -110 | -124 | +105 |
| Courtside | -1.5 -115 | 45.5 -108 | -120 | +104 |
| DraftKings | -1.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -122 | +102 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -1.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54¢ -127 all-in | 49¢ -104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -1.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -120 | +100 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +104 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 45.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -1.5 -106 | 45.5 -108 | -120 | +100 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2 -110 | 45 -110 | -126 | +103 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -101 | 46 +100 | -119 | +104 |
| theScore Bet | -1.5 -120 | 45.5 -110 | -125 | +105 |
Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +1.5 · -103 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.
Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Washington State Cougars -1.5, only $96 available; Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5, only $35 available; Under 45.5, only $408 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +174 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -139 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -185 |
| Market (18 books) | -1.5 | -115 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 42.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5 | -103 | -111 | +1.8% |
| Moneyline | Fresno State Bulldogs ML | +104 | -100 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.7.
TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South AlabamaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmSouth Alabama -14should be South Alabama -15 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings · was -16A Little Nasty · South AlabamaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, South Alabama. Market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 57 -110 | -590 | +420 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 57 -116 | -627 | +448 |
All 20 books
| South Alabama spread | Total (over) | South Alabama ML | UL Monroe ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -108 | 57 -110 | -590 | +420 |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 58 -110 | -600 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -108 | 57.5 -110 | -625 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -108 | 57 -110 | -590 | +440 |
| betPARX | -14 -108 | 56.5 -113 | -715 | +480 |
| BetRivers | -14 -109 | 56.5 -114 | -715 | +480 |
| BetUS | -14 -110 | 57 -112 | -590 | +445 |
| Bovada | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 57.5 -106 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 57.5 -108 | -600 | +440 |
| Fanatics | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -118 | 57.5 -114 | -650 | +470 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 56.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -104 | 57 -108 | -590 | +440 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 57.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -107 | 57 -116 | -627 | +448 |
| ReBet | -14.5 -111 | 57.5 -116 | -649 | +410 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 +100 | 57.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama -14.0 · -108 at DraftKings. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 85% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -16.0 | -570 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -739 |
| Sagarin | -18.5 | -798 |
| Massey | -17.0 | -622 |
| Market (18 books) | -14.0 | -565 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.0 | 61.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | South Alabama Jaguars -14.0 | -108 | -112 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | South Alabama Jaguars ML | -590 | -543 | priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 57.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at IowaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmIowa +14should be Iowa +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOMA Little Nasty · IowaBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Iowa. Market says Ohio State by 14, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13.5. At -102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -102 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Pinnacle | +14 +102 | 46 -103 | +459 | -645 |
All 22 books
| Iowa spread | Total (over) | Iowa ML | Ohio State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +14 -102 | 45.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +14.5 -116 52¢ | 45.5 | +490 16¢ | -609 85¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +480 | -715 |
| BetAnything | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetMGM | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | +450 | -625 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -102 | 45.5 -115 | +461 | -625 |
| betPARX | +14.5 -109 | 45.5 -110 | +480 | -715 |
| BetRivers | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +480 | -715 |
| BetUS | +14 -105 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | +450 | -650 |
| Caesars | +14.5 -115 | 45.5 -113 | +450 | -625 |
| Courtside | +14.5 -108 | 45.5 -108 | +471 | -600 |
| DraftKings | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +455 | -625 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +14.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 17¢ +426 all-in | 86¢ -733 all-in |
| Fanatics | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -650 |
| FanDuel | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +520 | -750 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +475 | -700 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 +102 | 45.5 -114 | +461 | -625 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +490 | -752 |
| Pinnacle | +14 +102 | 46 -103 | +459 | -645 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -116 | 45.5 -114 | +470 | -752 |
| theScore Bet | +14.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | +425 | -650 |
Marked: best for Iowa, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa +14.0 · -102 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +402 |
| FPI | +13.0 | +426 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +197 |
| Massey | +9.0 | +310 |
| Market (19 books) | +14.0 | +582 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Iowa Hawkeyes +14.0 | -102 | -105 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Iowa Hawkeyes ML | +520 | +458 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -105 | +100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConnCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amUConn +6.5should be UConn +6 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5A Little Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Syracuse by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 6. At +103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UConn is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 52 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +103 | 50 -108 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +7 -114 | 51 +101 | +218 | -264 |
All 21 books
| UConn spread | Total (over) | UConn ML | Syracuse ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 +103 | 50 -108 | +210 | -260 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 -107 50¢ | 50.5 | +198 32¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +7 -118 | 50.5 -109 | +220 | -286 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +215 | -260 |
| BetMGM | +7 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +210 | -250 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 +103 | 50 -108 | +215 | -260 |
| betPARX | +7 -118 | 50.5 -109 | +220 | -286 |
| BetRivers | +7 -120 | 50.5 -110 | +220 | -286 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | +218 | -260 |
| Bovada | +7 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +220 | -270 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -106 | +220 | -258 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -102 | 50.5 -108 | +215 | -265 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in |
| Fanatics | +7 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +215 | -265 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +198 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 +100 | 50.5 -110 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 +107 | 50 -106 | +215 | -260 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +208 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +7 -114 | 51 +101 | +218 | -264 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 50.5 -119 | +204 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 50.5 -105 | +215 | -260 |
Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.5 · +103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +7.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Over 50.5, only $50 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus.
TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.7 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +219 here against +244 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | -100 |
| FPI | +5.5 | +193 |
| Sagarin | +5.5 | +196 |
| Massey | +2.0 | +118 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +219 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 51.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UConn Huskies +6.5 | +103 | -103 | +1.4% |
| Moneyline | UConn Huskies ML | +210 | +207 | +0.3% |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -108 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus; total 50.0 here against 50.7 consensus; moneyline +219 here against +244 consensus.
Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at LouisianaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmOver 48should be 49.3 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 48.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7.5, but at -255 that's too thin.
The spread
The spread this week
DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -120 | 48 -105 | -255 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -106 | -257 | +214 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana spread | Total (over) | Louisiana ML | Arkansas State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -120 | 48 -105 | -255 | +205 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -263 71¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -103 | -275 | +210 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 47.5 -112 | -275 | +210 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -120 | 48 -105 | -255 | +211 |
| betPARX | -7 -105 | 47.5 -103 | -275 | +210 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 47.5 -104 | -275 | +210 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -255 | +215 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -260 | +215 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -113 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 71¢ -271 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 47.5 -115 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -118 | 47.5 -114 | -260 | +210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -120 | 46.5 -120 | -275 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -116 | 48 -103 | -255 | +211 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -290 | +228 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -113 | 48 -106 | -257 | +214 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -103 | 47.5 -116 | -300 | +222 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -250 | +210 |
Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas State Red Wolves +6.5, only $396 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -304 |
| FPI | -9.0 | -308 |
| Sagarin | -9.0 | -310 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -231 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -244 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 52.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML | -255 | -263 | +0.6% |
| Spread | Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5 | -120 | -123 | +0.5% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -105 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air ForceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 46should be 48.2 · getting 2.2 pts · was 49A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 46.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 11.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 3 to Air Force by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 45.5 -117 | -163 | +141 |
All 22 books
| Air Force spread | Total (over) | Air Force ML | Navy ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 45.5 -116 52¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -113 | 45.5 -114 | -157 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 45.5 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| betPARX | -3 -113 | 45.5 -114 | -157 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -114 | 45.5 -114 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -103 | 45.5 -113 | -162 | +137 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -102 | 45.5 -110 | -163 | +143 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -102 | 45.5 -112 | -166 | +140 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 46 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 +102 | 45.5 -110 | -160 | +132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3.5 +100 | 45.5 -115 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 -101 | 46 -108 | -160 | +140 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 46 -110 | -181 | +146 |
| Pinnacle | -3.5 -101 | 45.5 -117 | -163 | +141 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -105 | 46.5 -114 | -180 | +140 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 45.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Air Force). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -2.5 | -121 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -169 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -158 |
| Massey | +0.5 | +102 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -153 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Navy Midshipmen +3.5 | -115 | -104 | -2.5% |
| Moneyline | Navy Midshipmen ML | +135 | +155 | -3.3% |
| Total | Over 46.0 | -110 | -126 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.2.
TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 58.5Moved our way · 2 ptsshould be 59.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 59.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 58.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 4, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 4. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Louisville by 6 to Louisville by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 58.5 -108 | +147 | -171 |
All 21 books
| NC State spread | Total (over) | NC State ML | Louisville ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +3.5 -112 51¢ | 58.5 -112 51¢ | +146 39¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -108 | 59 -108 | +148 | -180 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 58 -110 | +145 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +145 | -175 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -108 | +152 | -173 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -108 | 59 -108 | +148 | -180 |
| BetRivers | +4 -114 | 59 -109 | +140 | -180 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +145 | -170 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -112 | 58.5 -112 | +157 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 58.5 -108 | +157 | -181 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 58.5 -110 | +154 | -185 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +152 | -184 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -101 | 58.5 -106 | +152 | -173 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 58.5 -110 | +144 | -178 |
| Pinnacle | +4 -114 | 58.5 -108 | +147 | -171 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -111 | 58.5 -111 | +146 | -188 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -105 | 58.5 -110 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 58.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 3.7 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -3.5, only $13 available; Under 58.5, only $150 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $6 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +4.5 | +175 |
| FPI | +6.0 | +200 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +4.0 | +170 |
| Market (19 books) | +4.0 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 58.5 | 64.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Louisville Cardinals -3.5 | -108 | -104 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | Louisville Cardinals ML | -179 | -168 | -1.5% |
| Total | Over 58.5 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.7 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&MCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmOver 50should be 51.3 · getting 1.3 pts · was 51.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | — | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14 -103 | 50 -111 | -607 | +437 |
All 22 books
| Texas A&M spread | Total (over) | Texas A&M ML | Arkansas ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -14 -105 | 50 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -13.5 -121 53¢ | 50.5 -107 50¢ | — | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14 -110 | 51 -108 | -670 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -14 -105 | 50.5 -108 | -600 | +450 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14 -105 | 50 -110 | -625 | +461 |
| betPARX | -14 -110 | 51 -108 | -670 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -14 -112 | 51 -109 | -670 | +450 |
| BetUS | -14 -105 | 50.5 -110 | -625 | +465 |
| Bovada | -14 -105 | 50 -115 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -14 -112 | 50.5 -107 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14 -106 | 50.5 -106 | -600 | +471 |
| DraftKings | -14 -108 | 50.5 -108 | -625 | +455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| FanDuel | -13.5 -122 | 50.5 -106 | -650 | +460 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -14 -101 | 50 -108 | -625 | +461 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -625 | +430 |
| Pinnacle | -14 -103 | 50 -111 | -607 | +437 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -119 | 50.5 -116 | -649 | +420 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -115 | 49.5 -120 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 79°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.1 toward Arkansas). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5, only $20 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -11.5 | -393 |
| FPI | -15.0 | -547 |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -618 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -405 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.0 | -556 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.0 | 55.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Arkansas Razorbacks +13.5 | +100 | +106 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | Arkansas Razorbacks ML | +450 | +470 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.0 | -110 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana TechCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmOver 47.5should be 48.8 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 47.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -110 | +113 | -130 |
All 21 books
| Louisiana Tech spread | Total (over) | Louisiana Tech ML | Army ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +1.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | +105 | -125 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +109 46¢ | -131 55¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +107 | -132 |
| BetAnything | +1.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +2 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +105 | -125 |
| BetOnline.ag | +1.5 -107 | 47.5 -109 | +105 | -125 |
| betPARX | +2 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +107 | -132 |
| BetRivers | +2 -109 | 47.5 -107 | +107 | -132 |
| BetUS | +1.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -108 | +107 | -122 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -112 | 47.5 -106 | +105 | -126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -115 | 47.5 -105 | +105 | -130 |
| LowVig.ag | +1.5 -103 | 47.5 -107 | +105 | -125 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +105 | -128 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -107 | 47.5 -110 | +113 | -130 |
| ReBet | +1.5 -109 | 47.5 -114 | +103 | -131 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.5 · -109 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 48% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $380 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +110 here against +119 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.0 | +230 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -100 |
| Massey | +4.5 | +177 |
| Market (18 books) | +1.5 | +110 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Army Black Knights -1.5 | -113 | -112 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Army Black Knights ML | -125 | -124 | -0.2% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -109 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread +1.5 here against +2.3 consensus; moneyline +110 here against +119 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pmKentucky +3.5should be Kentucky +3 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +6Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 3.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 3. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Kentucky's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 53.5 -118 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 53.5 -110 | -157 | +135 |
All 22 books
| South Carolina spread | Total (over) | South Carolina ML | Kentucky ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 +100 | 53.5 -118 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -126 54¢ | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -109 | 53 -113 | -155 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -3 -110 | 53.5 -112 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 +100 | 53.5 -118 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -109 | 53 -113 | -155 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -110 | 53 -114 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3.5 +100 | 53.5 -120 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3 -109 | 53.5 -112 | -148 | +126 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 53.5 -112 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 60¢ -163 all-in | 43¢ +123 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -155 | +130 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -112 | -142 | +118 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -120 | 53.5 -105 | -155 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +104 | 53.5 -117 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -153 | +124 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -109 | 53.5 -110 | -157 | +135 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -128 | 53.5 -114 | -156 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +105 | 53.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +3.5 · -120 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 83% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.0 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 54.5, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -1.5 | -113 |
| FPI | -2.5 | -125 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -170 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 53.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kentucky Wildcats +3.5 | -120 | -123 | +0.7% |
| Moneyline | Kentucky Wildcats ML | +130 | +130 | -0.0% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -102 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.0.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.0 consensus.
Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at TennesseeCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmTennessee -7should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -111 | 54 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -7 -109 | 54.5 +100 | -285 | +233 |
All 22 books
| Tennessee spread | Total (over) | Tennessee ML | Auburn ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -111 | 54 -110 | -280 | +220 |
| Kalshi | -7.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | -276 72¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -7.5 -106 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +220 |
| BetAnything | -7 -110 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| BetMGM | -7 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -111 | 53.5 -110 | -280 | +230 |
| betPARX | -7.5 -106 | 54.5 -110 | -286 | +220 |
| BetRivers | -7.5 -107 | 54.5 -112 | -286 | +220 |
| BetUS | -7 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -280 | +235 |
| Bovada | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -285 | +235 |
| Caesars | -7 -110 | 54.5 -106 | -275 | +225 |
| Courtside | -7 -108 | 54.5 -103 | -278 | +236 |
| DraftKings | -7 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -285 | +230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 73¢ -300 all-in | 30¢ +212 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 54 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 54.5 -110 | -285 | +230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -110 | -275 | +220 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -107 | 53.5 -108 | -280 | +230 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7 -110 | 54 -110 | -285 | +222 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -109 | 54.5 +100 | -285 | +233 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 54.5 -111 | -290 | +218 |
| theScore Bet | -7.5 +100 | 53.5 -120 | -275 | +225 |
Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, only $11 available; Under 54.5, only $13 available; Auburn Tigers ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.5 | -302 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -267 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -289 |
| Massey | -9.0 | -306 |
| Market (19 books) | -7.0 | -268 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 50.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Volunteers -7.0 | -111 | -112 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Volunteers ML | -280 | -271 | -0.6% |
| Total | Under 54.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.6.
TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.4 consensus.
Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amAlabama -5should be Alabama -6 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Alabama's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +173 | -213 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -112 | 59.5 -116 | +185 | -219 |
All 22 books
| Mississippi State spread | Total (over) | Mississippi State ML | Alabama ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +173 | -213 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 | 60.5 -107 50¢ | +181 34¢ | -229 68¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6 -108 | 60.5 -109 | +195 | -245 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 60 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -110 | 60.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +182 | -213 |
| betPARX | +6 -108 | 60.5 -109 | +195 | -245 |
| BetRivers | +6 -109 | 60.5 -110 | +190 | -245 |
| BetUS | +5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +183 | -215 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -105 | 60 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -107 | 60.5 -107 | +188 | -230 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -108 | 59.5 -108 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -108 | 59.5 -110 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6 -110 | 60 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -102 | 60.5 -110 | +184 | -225 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -115 | 60.5 -110 | +195 | -240 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -106 | 60.5 -108 | +182 | -213 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 60.5 -110 | +183 | -230 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -112 | 59.5 -116 | +185 | -219 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -116 | 60.5 -114 | +179 | -236 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -105 | 60.5 -105 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 27% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 2.3 toward Alabama, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Mississippi State Bulldogs +5.5, only $4 available; Under 60.5, only $17 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.8 consensus.
TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.9 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +181 here against +206 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +197 |
| FPI | +8.0 | +293 |
| Sagarin | +3.5 | +163 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +325 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.0 | +181 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 60.5 | 63.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Alabama Crimson Tide -5.0 | -110 | -111 | +0.2% |
| Moneyline | Alabama Crimson Tide ML | -213 | -206 | -0.7% |
| Total | Over 60.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.8 consensus; total 60.5 here against 59.9 consensus; moneyline +181 here against +206 consensus.
Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmColorado State +6.5should be Colorado State +6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Colorado State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 63.5 +109 46¢ | +189 33¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -104 | 62 -103 | +194 | -231 |
All 21 books
| Colorado State spread | Total (over) | Colorado State ML | Oregon State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 63.5 +109 46¢ | +189 33¢ | -239 69¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetAnything | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +190 | -230 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 61.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +186 | -220 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -112 | 62.5 -108 | +195 | -250 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -113 | 62.5 -109 | +195 | -250 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -110 | 62 -110 | +185 | -220 |
| Bovada | +6 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -116 | 61.5 -113 | +194 | -225 |
| DraftKings | +6 -105 | 61.5 -115 | +190 | -230 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 34¢ +178 all-in | 69¢ -245 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | +190 | -235 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -105 | 62.5 +100 | +198 | -245 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 62.5 -110 | +195 | -250 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -106 | 62 -108 | +186 | -220 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6 -110 | 62 -110 | +174 | -221 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -104 | 62 -103 | +194 | -231 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -111 | 61.5 -116 | +189 | -250 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 61.5 -110 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 84°F.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0. The market has moved 0.7 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Colorado State Rams +6.5, only $153 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +209 |
| FPI | +4.5 | +176 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +6.0 | +201 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 62.0 | 58.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Colorado State Rams +6.5 | -105 | -105 | +0.1% |
| Moneyline | Colorado State Rams ML | +198 | +202 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 62.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.5.
TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.2 consensus; moneyline +188 here against +215 consensus.
Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amBoston College +21should be Boston College +20 · getting 1 pt · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.
The spread
The total
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -21.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -105 | -1455 | +837 |
All 21 books
| SMU spread | Total (over) | SMU ML | Boston College ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -21.5 | 55.5 -107 50¢ | -1236 92¢ | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1800 | +975 |
| BetMGM | -20.5 -112 | 55.5 -105 | -1400 | +950 |
| BetOnline.ag | -21 -109 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +910 |
| betPARX | -21 -109 | 55.5 -107 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -21 -110 | 55.5 -108 | -2000 | +850 |
| BetUS | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -1600 | +900 |
| Bovada | -21 -105 | 55.5 -105 | -1600 | +800 |
| Courtside | -21 -106 | 55.5 +100 | -1509 | +1008 |
| DraftKings | -21 -108 | 55.5 -102 | -1650 | +950 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 54.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -21 -110 | 55.5 -105 | -1500 | +900 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -106 | -1800 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -20.5 -120 | 55.5 -105 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -21 -105 | 55 -108 | -1600 | +910 |
| MyBookie.ag | -21 -110 | 55 -110 | -2019 | +883 |
| Pinnacle | -21 -103 | 55.5 -105 | -1455 | +837 |
| ReBet | -21.5 -105 | 55.5 -109 | -1695 | +750 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -115 | 55.5 -105 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F, 65% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -21.5, only $106 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -20.0 | -878 |
| FPI | -16.0 | -581 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -822 |
| Massey | -15.5 | -563 |
| Market (18 books) | -21.0 | -1331 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.0 | 50.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Boston College Eagles +21.0 | -111 | -115 | +0.9% |
| Moneyline | Boston College Eagles ML | +900 | +889 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 55.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 55.0 here against 55.4 consensus.
The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amIowa State -3.5should be Iowa State -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 53 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 53 -110 | -156 | +135 |
All 22 books
| Iowa State spread | Total (over) | Iowa State ML | West Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3.5 -103 | 53 -105 | -155 | +130 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +105 47¢ | 53.5 -112 51¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -112 | 52.5 -113 | -159 | +128 |
| BetAnything | -3.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -155 | +135 |
| BetMGM | -3 -115 | 53.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3.5 -103 | 53 -105 | -155 | +135 |
| betPARX | -3 -112 | 52.5 -113 | -159 | +128 |
| BetRivers | -3 -112 | 52.5 -113 | -159 | +128 |
| BetUS | -3 -115 | 53 -105 | -155 | +134 |
| Bovada | -3 -115 | 53 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -115 | 53.5 -105 | -154 | +131 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -107 | 53.5 -106 | -152 | +133 |
| DraftKings | -3 -118 | 53.5 -108 | -155 | +130 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -115 | 53 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -122 | 52.5 -118 | -152 | +126 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -125 | 52.5 -110 | -160 | +130 |
| LowVig.ag | -3.5 +101 | 53 -103 | -155 | +135 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3.5 -110 | 53 -110 | -172 | +139 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -113 | 53 -110 | -156 | +135 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -103 | 53.5 -111 | -165 | +129 |
| theScore Bet | -3.5 +100 | 52.5 -110 | -155 | +135 |
Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 57°F.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0 (the market moved 3.6 toward Iowa State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -4.0 | -173 |
| FPI | -3.5 | -164 |
| Sagarin | -4.5 | -176 |
| Massey | -12.0 | -407 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.5 | -148 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 52.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | West Virginia Mountaineers +3.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | West Virginia Mountaineers ML | +130 | +157 | -4.6% |
| Total | Under 53.0 | -115 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.6 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.
TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.1 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at KansasCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amOver 49should be 50.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 50.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -103 | 50 +101 | -1178 | +720 |
All 21 books
| Kansas spread | Total (over) | Kansas ML | Middle Tennessee ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -105 | 49 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -112 51¢ | 49.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -109 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| BetMGM | -18.5 -105 | 49.5 -108 | -1200 | +850 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -105 | 49 -110 | -1300 | +795 |
| betPARX | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -109 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetRivers | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -109 | -2500 | +1000 |
| BetUS | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1300 | +780 |
| Bovada | -18 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -108 | -1252 | +842 |
| DraftKings | -18.5 -112 | 49.5 -110 | -1350 | +800 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -17.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -18 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1300 | +800 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1100 | +680 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -2500 | +1000 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -101 | 49 -108 | -1300 | +795 |
| MyBookie.ag | -18.5 -110 | 49.5 -110 | -1442 | +764 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -103 | 50 +101 | -1178 | +720 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -116 | 49.5 -114 | -1299 | +660 |
| theScore Bet | -18.5 +100 | 49.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 60°F.
Across the books: opened -19.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 0.5 toward Middle Tennessee).
Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +18.5, only $48 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -836 |
| FPI | -15.5 | -567 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1761 |
| Massey | -21.5 | -1146 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1111 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas Jayhawks -18.5 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Kansas Jayhawks ML | -1087 | -809 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.9.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.7 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at MinnesotaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amMichigan -5.5should be Michigan -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +172 | -212 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6 -111 | 43 -112 | +186 | -221 |
All 22 books
| Minnesota spread | Total (over) | Minnesota ML | Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +172 | -212 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -103 49¢ | 43.5 -112 51¢ | +181 34¢ | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +5.5 -108 | 43.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +181 | -212 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -109 | +175 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -112 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -225 |
| BetUS | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +6 -115 | 43 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | +184 | -225 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -106 | +189 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +185 | -225 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 36¢ +163 all-in | 67¢ -223 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -105 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -108 | +176 | -215 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +175 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5.5 -106 | 43 -108 | +181 | -212 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5.5 -110 | 43 -110 | +197 | -248 |
| Pinnacle | +6 -111 | 43 -112 | +186 | -221 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -111 | 43.5 -111 | +192 | -255 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -110 | 43.5 +100 | +175 | -210 |
Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 59°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +180 here against +205 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +5.5 | +195 |
| FPI | +9.5 | +310 |
| Sagarin | +2.0 | +117 |
| Massey | +7.5 | +274 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.5 | +180 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 40.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Michigan Wolverines -5.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.3% |
| Moneyline | Michigan Wolverines ML | -212 | -201 | -1.1% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.
TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.8 consensus; moneyline +180 here against +205 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amNotre Dame -21should be Notre Dame -21.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +21 -105 | 47 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -131 55¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -102 | +890 | -1589 |
All 22 books
| North Carolina spread | Total (over) | North Carolina ML | Notre Dame ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +21 -105 | 47 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 45.5 -131 55¢ | +1242 7¢ | -1684 94¢ |
| Bally Bet | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +1200 | — |
| BetAnything | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +21 -108 | 47.5 -105 | +1050 | -1600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +21 -105 | 47 -105 | +979 | -1800 |
| betPARX | +21.5 -114 | 47.5 -109 | +1200 | — |
| BetRivers | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | — |
| BetUS | +21 -110 | 47 -105 | +1000 | -1800 |
| Bovada | +21 -110 | 47 -110 | +850 | -1800 |
| Caesars | +21 -110 | 47.5 -106 | +1000 | -2000 |
| Courtside | +21 -106 | 47.5 -106 | +1008 | -1509 |
| DraftKings | +21 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +950 | -1650 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +21.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 8¢ +900 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +21 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +1050 | -1800 |
| FanDuel | +21.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +1000 | -2100 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +21.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +1200 | -3000 |
| LowVig.ag | +21 -101 | 47 -103 | +979 | -1800 |
| MyBookie.ag | +21 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +880 | -1887 |
| Pinnacle | +21.5 -117 | 47.5 -102 | +890 | -1589 |
| ReBet | +21.5 -116 | 47.5 -111 | +820 | -2000 |
| theScore Bet | +21.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | +1000 | -2000 |
Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 76°F, 27% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread +21.0 here against +21.4 consensus.
TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1319 |
| FPI | +20.5 | +921 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +609 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1202 |
| Market (19 books) | +21.0 | +1502 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 46.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0 | -109 | -106 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML | -1843 | -1116 | priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: spread +21.0 here against +21.4 consensus; total 47.0 here against 47.4 consensus.
The line is +21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake ForestCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00amWake Forest -13should be Wake Forest -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Pinnacle | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -551 | +405 |
All 20 books
| Wake Forest spread | Total (over) | Wake Forest ML | Stanford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -13.5 | 53.5 | -524 83¢ | +426 18¢ |
| Bally Bet | -13 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +420 |
| BetAnything | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| BetMGM | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -500 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +400 |
| betPARX | -13 -113 | 53.5 -110 | -625 | +420 |
| BetRivers | -13 -114 | 53.5 -112 | -625 | +420 |
| BetUS | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -525 | +405 |
| Bovada | -13.5 -105 | 53.5 -110 | -575 | +400 |
| Courtside | -13.5 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -515 | +413 |
| DraftKings | -13.5 -108 | 53.5 -110 | -535 | +400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -13.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 84¢ -614 all-in | 19¢ +376 all-in |
| Fanatics | -13.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -550 | +410 |
| FanDuel | -12.5 -120 | 53.5 -115 | -580 | +420 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -13.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -650 | +425 |
| LowVig.ag | -13 -106 | 53.5 -108 | -525 | +400 |
| MyBookie.ag | -13 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -549 | +400 |
| Pinnacle | -13 -112 | 53.5 -110 | -551 | +405 |
| ReBet | -13.5 -114 | 53.5 -116 | -575 | +380 |
| theScore Bet | -13.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | -650 | +425 |
Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 73°F, 36% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 1.1 toward Wake Forest).
Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.5, only $80 available; Over 53.5, only $132 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -14.5 | -509 |
| FPI | -14.0 | -476 |
| Sagarin | -13.5 | -440 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -369 |
| Market (18 books) | -13.0 | -500 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 54.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Wake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0 | -110 | -102 | -1.9% |
| Moneyline | Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML | -500 | -438 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.0.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at GeorgiaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45amOver 50.5should be 52.2 · getting 1.7 pts · was 57.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 25.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 24.5 to Georgia by 25. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Pinnacle | -25 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -2889 | +1322 |
All 22 books
| Georgia spread | Total (over) | Georgia ML | Vanderbilt ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -25 -115 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 +101 48¢ | -2580 96¢ | +1775 5¢ |
| Bally Bet | -24 -115 | 50.5 -113 | — | +1600 |
| BetAnything | -25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | -25 -110 | 50.5 -112 | -3000 | +1500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -25 -115 | 50.5 -110 | -3200 | +1296 |
| betPARX | -24 -115 | 50.5 -113 | — | +1600 |
| BetRivers | -24 -115 | 50.5 -114 | — | +1500 |
| BetUS | -26 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -3000 | +1300 |
| Bovada | -25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1100 |
| Caesars | -25 -109 | 50.5 -117 | — | +1400 |
| Courtside | -25.5 -103 | 50.5 -113 | -2433 | +1405 |
| DraftKings | -25.5 -105 | 50.5 -115 | -2800 | +1300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -25.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 97¢ -9897 all-in | 6¢ +1150 all-in |
| Fanatics | -25 -110 | 50.5 -110 | -3000 | +1500 |
| FanDuel | -24.5 -118 | 51.5 -106 | — | +1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -24.5 -105 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1600 |
| LowVig.ag | -25 -111 | 50.5 -108 | -3200 | +1296 |
| MyBookie.ag | -25.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +1322 |
| Pinnacle | -25 -108 | 50.5 -110 | -2889 | +1322 |
| ReBet | -26.5 -114 | 50.5 -116 | — | — |
| theScore Bet | -25.5 -110 | 51.5 +100 | — | +1500 |
Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 81°F, 42% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -23.5, now -25.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Georgia).
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $246 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -25.0 | -1772 |
| FPI | -25.0 | -1786 |
| Sagarin | -19.0 | -823 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -844 |
| Market (19 books) | -25.0 | -2695 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 54.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Vanderbilt Commodores +25.0 | -105 | -100 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Vanderbilt Commodores ML | +1775 | +1787 | priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -110 | -118 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.9.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at BuffaloCFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pmWestern Michigan -13.5should be Western Michigan -13.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | +456 17¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 47 -102 | +436 | -605 |
All 20 books
| Buffalo spread | Total (over) | Buffalo ML | Western Michigan ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +13.5 -107 50¢ | 46.5 -112 51¢ | +456 17¢ | -564 84¢ |
| Bally Bet | +14 -115 | 46.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetAnything | +14 -105 | 46 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetMGM | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| BetOnline.ag | +14 -105 | 46 -110 | +446 | -600 |
| betPARX | +14 -115 | 46.5 -117 | +510 | -770 |
| BetRivers | +14 -117 | 46.5 -118 | +510 | -835 |
| BetUS | +14 -110 | 46 -110 | +450 | -600 |
| Bovada | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +430 | -625 |
| Courtside | +14 -110 | 46.5 -108 | +455 | -576 |
| DraftKings | +14 -112 | 46.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +13.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 45.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in |
| Fanatics | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -110 | +440 | -600 |
| FanDuel | +13.5 -108 | 46.5 -112 | +450 | -630 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +13.5 -105 | 46.5 -115 | +500 | -750 |
| LowVig.ag | +14 -106 | 46 -108 | +446 | -600 |
| MyBookie.ag | +14 -110 | 46.5 -110 | +480 | -725 |
| Pinnacle | +13.5 -104 | 47 -102 | +436 | -605 |
| ReBet | +14.5 -125 | 46.5 -114 | +450 | -725 |
| theScore Bet | +13.5 +100 | 47.5 -105 | +450 | -700 |
Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $429 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +8.0 | +284 |
| FPI | +13.5 | +452 |
| Sagarin | +13.5 | +441 |
| Massey | +11.0 | +387 |
| Market (18 books) | +13.5 | +562 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 46.5 | 44.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bulls +14.0 | -112 | -110 | -0.4% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bulls ML | +450 | +437 | priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 46.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.0.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pmToledo -19.5should be Toledo -20 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19 to Toledo by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +841 10¢ | -1236 92¢ |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 +100 | 52 -112 | +754 | -1255 |
All 21 books
| Ball State spread | Total (over) | Ball State ML | Toledo ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | +17.5 +101 48¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | +841 10¢ | -1236 92¢ |
| Bally Bet | +19.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +850 | -2000 |
| BetAnything | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +750 | -1300 |
| BetMGM | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 -102 | +825 | -1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +19.5 -110 | 52 -115 | +795 | -1300 |
| betPARX | +19.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +850 | -2000 |
| BetRivers | +19.5 -113 | 51.5 -112 | +850 | -2000 |
| BetUS | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +780 | -1300 |
| Bovada | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | +725 | -1300 |
| Courtside | +19.5 -110 | 52.5 +100 | +788 | -1121 |
| DraftKings | +19.5 -112 | 52.5 -102 | +750 | -1200 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +19.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in |
| Fanatics | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +800 | -1300 |
| FanDuel | +19.5 -108 | 51.5 -115 | +800 | -1400 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +850 | -2000 |
| LowVig.ag | +19.5 -106 | 52 -114 | +795 | -1300 |
| MyBookie.ag | +19.5 -110 | 52 -110 | +775 | -1442 |
| Pinnacle | +18.5 +100 | 52 -112 | +754 | -1255 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -116 | 51.5 -119 | +670 | -1299 |
| theScore Bet | +19.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Toledo Rockets -17.5, only $265 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +23.0 | +1344 |
| FPI | +22.0 | +1212 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +596 |
| Massey | +19.0 | +827 |
| Market (18 books) | +19.5 | +1138 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.0 | 52.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Toledo Rockets -19.5 | -110 | -105 | -1.1% |
| Moneyline | Toledo Rockets ML | -1300 | -909 | priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.0 | -105 | -100 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.
TOM: spread +19.5 here against +19.0 consensus.
The line is +19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central MichiganCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmCentral Michigan -6.5should be Central Michigan -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 47 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -250 70¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 47 -108 | -248 | +207 |
All 21 books
| Central Michigan spread | Total (over) | Central Michigan ML | Akron ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -113 | 47 -110 | -250 | +200 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -116 52¢ | 46.5 -116 52¢ | -250 70¢ | +208 31¢ |
| Bally Bet | -7 -105 | 47.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetAnything | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| BetMGM | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -250 | +200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -113 | 47 -110 | -250 | +207 |
| betPARX | -7 -105 | 47.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetRivers | -7 -106 | 47.5 -109 | -265 | +205 |
| BetUS | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -240 | +203 |
| Bovada | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -250 | +210 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -113 | -244 | +210 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -112 | 46.5 -115 | -250 | +205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in | 33¢ +186 all-in |
| Fanatics | -6.5 -115 | 47 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -106 | -245 | +198 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -6.5 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -260 | +210 |
| LowVig.ag | -6.5 -109 | 47 -108 | -250 | +207 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -265 | +210 |
| Pinnacle | -6.5 -110 | 47 -108 | -248 | +207 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -119 | 47.5 -109 | -275 | +206 |
| theScore Bet | -6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -240 | +200 |
Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 63°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan).
Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -6.5 | -219 |
| FPI | -6.0 | -201 |
| Sagarin | -8.0 | -294 |
| Massey | -6.5 | -225 |
| Market (18 books) | -6.5 | -239 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 43.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Central Michigan Chippewas -6.5 | -113 | -101 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Central Michigan Chippewas ML | -250 | -216 | -3.1% |
| Total | Under 47.0 | -110 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLVCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUNLV -3should be UNLV -2.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UNLV by 3, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 53 -115 | -134 | +116 |
All 22 books
| UNLV spread | Total (over) | UNLV ML | California ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 53.5 | -136 56¢ | +109 46¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -117 | -137 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 +103 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -112 | 53.5 -117 | -137 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -112 | 54.5 -106 | -137 | +110 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -109 | 53.5 -107 | -136 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 54.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 56¢ -138 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -112 | 52.5 -118 | -132 | +110 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 +107 | 53.5 -108 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | -138 | +113 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 53 -115 | -134 | +116 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -116 | 53.5 -116 | -141 | +111 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 53.5 -115 | -130 | +110 |
Marked: best for the UNLV side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 3.0 toward UNLV).
Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $13 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus.
TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -3.0 | -139 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -110 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +143 |
| Massey | -1.5 | -111 |
| Market (19 books) | -3.0 | -129 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.5 | 50.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | California Golden Bears +3.0 | -123 | -118 | -1.0% |
| Moneyline | California Golden Bears ML | +115 | +119 | -0.8% |
| Total | Under 53.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus; total 53.5 here against 53.2 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at CharlotteCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmOver 53should be 53.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 54Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Pinnacle | +20 +101 | 53 -110 | +796 | -1355 |
All 20 books
| Charlotte spread | Total (over) | Charlotte ML | Memphis ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +20.5 -107 50¢ | 53.5 | — | -1236 92¢ |
| Bally Bet | +20 -108 | 52.5 -106 | +1050 | -2500 |
| BetAnything | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +865 | -1500 |
| BetMGM | +20.5 -110 | 53.5 -108 | +900 | -1400 |
| BetOnline.ag | +20.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | +836 | -1400 |
| betPARX | +20 -108 | 52.5 -106 | +1050 | -2500 |
| BetRivers | +20 -109 | 52.5 -107 | +1050 | — |
| BetUS | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +825 | -1400 |
| Bovada | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +775 | -1500 |
| Courtside | +20.5 -106 | 53.5 -112 | +897 | -1339 |
| DraftKings | +20.5 -108 | 52.5 -115 | +850 | -1450 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +20.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in |
| Fanatics | +20.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +850 | -1400 |
| FanDuel | +20.5 -110 | 52.5 -112 | +890 | -1700 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +20.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | +1100 | -2500 |
| LowVig.ag | +20.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | +836 | -1400 |
| MyBookie.ag | +20.5 -110 | 53 -110 | +750 | -1408 |
| Pinnacle | +20 +101 | 53 -110 | +796 | -1355 |
| ReBet | +20.5 -109 | 52.5 -116 | +700 | -1408 |
| theScore Bet | +20.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | +800 | -1600 |
Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 53.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 68% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Memphis Tigers -20.5, only $174 available; Over 53.5, only $50 available; Charlotte 49ers ML, only $448 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +27.5 | +2279 |
| FPI | +16.5 | +592 |
| Sagarin | +15.5 | +566 |
| Massey | +18.5 | +781 |
| Market (18 books) | +20.0 | +1261 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 53.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Charlotte 49ers +20.5 | -107 | -107 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Charlotte 49ers ML | +850 | +864 | priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 53.0 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.4.
The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at MissouriCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmFlorida -5should be Florida -4.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | -218 67¢ |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -107 | 56.5 -115 | +185 | -219 |
All 22 books
| Missouri spread | Total (over) | Missouri ML | Florida ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Kalshi | +5.5 -112 51¢ | 57.5 -112 51¢ | — | -218 67¢ |
| Bally Bet | +5.5 -109 | 57 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +5 -108 | 56.5 -112 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +5 -105 | 57.5 -110 | +186 | -220 |
| betPARX | +5.5 -109 | 57 -109 | +170 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +5.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +170 | -220 |
| BetUS | +5 -105 | 57.5 -115 | +185 | -220 |
| Bovada | +5.5 -110 | 57 -115 | +185 | -225 |
| Caesars | +5.5 -113 | 57.5 -106 | +172 | -205 |
| Courtside | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -106 | +174 | -200 |
| DraftKings | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -108 | +170 | -205 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +5.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 35¢ +171 all-in | 68¢ -234 all-in |
| Fanatics | +5.5 -110 | 57 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -102 | 56.5 -115 | +172 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +5.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | +170 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +5 -101 | 57.5 -108 | +186 | -220 |
| MyBookie.ag | +5 -110 | 57 -110 | +178 | -224 |
| Pinnacle | +5.5 -107 | 56.5 -115 | +185 | -219 |
| ReBet | +5.5 -114 | 56.5 -119 | +174 | -228 |
| theScore Bet | +5.5 -115 | 57.5 -105 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.
Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.6 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $18 available; Missouri Tigers ML, only $297 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus.
TOM: total 57.5 here against 56.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +2.5 | +124 |
| FPI | +7.5 | +272 |
| Sagarin | +3.0 | +144 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +152 |
| Market (19 books) | +5.0 | +188 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 57.5 | 56.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Missouri Tigers +5.0 | -105 | -102 | -0.7% |
| Moneyline | Missouri Tigers ML | +180 | +182 | -0.3% |
| Total | Under 57.5 | -110 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.8.
TOM: spread +5.0 here against +5.4 consensus; total 57.5 here against 56.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmVirginia -2.5should be Virginia -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 51.5 -109 | +122 | -141 |
All 22 books
| Florida State spread | Total (over) | Florida State ML | Virginia ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | +114 45¢ | -136 56¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -102 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -109 | +112 | -137 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -112 | 51.5 -110 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 +100 | 51.5 -105 | +125 | -145 |
| Bovada | +3 -120 | 51.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -106 | +120 | -141 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -108 | +127 | -145 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +124 | -148 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -115 | 51.5 -105 | +120 | -145 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -106 | +112 | -134 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +110 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 +104 | 51.5 -103 | +125 | -145 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | +116 | -143 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 +102 | 51.5 -109 | +122 | -141 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | +114 | -146 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +115 | -135 |
Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Virginia).
Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers -2.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.5 | +213 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | PK | +100 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -107 |
| Market (19 books) | +2.5 | +125 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Virginia Cavaliers -2.5 | -110 | -104 | -1.5% |
| Moneyline | Virginia Cavaliers ML | -134 | -125 | -1.6% |
| Total | Over 51.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmGeorgia State -2.5should be Georgia State -2.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 3.5 points since it opened, from Old Dominion by 1 to Georgia State by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 51 -115 | -131 | +114 |
All 20 books
| Georgia State spread | Total (over) | Georgia State ML | Old Dominion ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -2.5 | 51.5 -112 51¢ | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -136 | +110 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -130 | +110 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -112 | 51.5 -107 | -135 | +115 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | -136 | +110 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -136 | +110 |
| BetUS | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -135 | +115 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -112 | 51.5 -103 | -132 | +116 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -112 | 51.5 -105 | -135 | +114 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57¢ -144 all-in | 46¢ +108 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +115 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -106 | 51.5 -112 | -128 | +106 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -135 | +110 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -108 | 51.5 -105 | -135 | +115 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -136 | +111 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -109 | 51 -115 | -131 | +114 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -114 | 51.5 -109 | -139 | +109 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -105 | 51.5 +100 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for the Georgia State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 80% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Georgia State).
Kalshi thin: Georgia State Panthers -2.5, only $102 available; Under 51.5, only $215 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +1.0 | +107 |
| FPI | -5.0 | -183 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -235 |
| Massey | +2.5 | +127 |
| Market (18 books) | -2.5 | -123 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.0 | 53.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Old Dominion Monarchs +2.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Old Dominion Monarchs ML | +114 | +120 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 51.0 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmUnder 45.5should be 44.3 · getting 1.2 ptsNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 17.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from North Dakota State by 18 to North Dakota State by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -104 | 46 +101 | -1124 | +696 |
All 21 books
| North Dakota State spread | Total (over) | North Dakota State ML | Wyoming ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -17.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -18.5 -107 50¢ | 45.5 -112 51¢ | -1087 91¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -18 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetAnything | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| BetMGM | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -108 | -1100 | +775 |
| BetOnline.ag | -17.5 -108 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +754 |
| betPARX | -18 -109 | 45.5 -109 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetRivers | -18 -109 | 45.5 -110 | -1667 | +800 |
| BetUS | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -105 | -1050 | +680 |
| Bovada | -17.5 -105 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +700 |
| Courtside | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -17.5 -112 | 45.5 -112 | -1100 | +700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -17.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 45.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 91¢ -1328 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1200 | +750 |
| FanDuel | -18.5 -105 | 45.5 -105 | -1400 | +800 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -17.5 -115 | 45.5 -110 | -1600 | +800 |
| LowVig.ag | -17.5 -104 | 45.5 -108 | -1200 | +754 |
| MyBookie.ag | -17.5 -110 | 45.5 -110 | -1299 | +730 |
| Pinnacle | -17.5 -104 | 46 +101 | -1124 | +696 |
| ReBet | -18.5 -111 | 45.5 -114 | -1408 | +690 |
| theScore Bet | -17.5 -105 | 45.5 +100 | -1600 | +800 |
Marked: best for the North Dakota State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened -20.0, now -17.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Wyoming).
Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +18.5, only $184 available; Wyoming Cowboys ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -22.5 | -1294 |
| FPI | -18.0 | -738 |
| Sagarin | -17.5 | -722 |
| Massey | -14.0 | -471 |
| Market (18 books) | -17.5 | -1035 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 45.5 | 40.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | North Dakota State Bison -17.5 | -108 | -102 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | North Dakota State Bison ML | -1200 | -718 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 45.5 | -110 | -112 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.
TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.
The line is -17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Samford Bulldogs at UAB BlazersSamford at UABCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pmSamford +30.5should be Samford +27.5 · getting 3 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UAB by 30.5.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UAB by 31 to UAB by 30.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Samford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -30.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
All 13 books
| UAB spread | Total (over) | UAB ML | Samford ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -30.5 -113 | 51.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -30.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -30.5 -113 | 51.5 -114 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -30.5 -114 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| Courtside | -30.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -30.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | — | +3000 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -30.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| FanDuel | -30.5 -106 | 51.5 -110 | — | +2200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -30.5 -110 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -30.5 -115 | 51.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -30.5 -120 | — | — | — |
Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 78% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $292 available; Samford Bulldogs ML, only $233 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Samford | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Samford | |
| Sagarin | -16.5 | -590 |
| Massey | rates Samford and UAB on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -30.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Samford Bulldogs +30.5 | -110 | -137 | +5.4% |
| Moneyline | Samford Bulldogs ML | +2541 | +2322 | priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -30.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James MadisonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pmJames Madison -18.5should be James Madison -20 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.
The spread
The total
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -113 | 55.5 -113 | -1081 | +677 |
All 21 books
| James Madison spread | Total (over) | James Madison ML | Marshall ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -18.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -17.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | -1087 91¢ | +841 10¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetAnything | -18.5 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| BetMGM | -19 -110 | 56.5 -105 | -1100 | +750 |
| BetOnline.ag | -18.5 -115 | 56.5 -105 | -1100 | +709 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -112 | 56.5 -117 | -2000 | +900 |
| BetUS | -19 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| Bovada | -19 -110 | 56 -110 | -1100 | +650 |
| Courtside | -18.5 -118 | 56.5 -103 | -1032 | +733 |
| DraftKings | -19.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -1100 | +700 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -19.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 92¢ -1567 all-in | 11¢ +669 all-in |
| Fanatics | -19 -110 | 55.5 -110 | -1100 | +700 |
| FanDuel | -19.5 -110 | 56.5 -108 | -1600 | +860 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -110 | 56.5 -115 | -2000 | +900 |
| LowVig.ag | -18.5 -111 | 56.5 -103 | -1100 | +709 |
| MyBookie.ag | -19 -110 | 56 -110 | -1099 | +640 |
| Pinnacle | -18.5 -113 | 55.5 -113 | -1081 | +677 |
| ReBet | -19.5 -119 | 55.5 -116 | -1099 | +610 |
| theScore Bet | -19.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | -1800 | +900 |
Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F, 24% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened -15.0, now -19.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: James Madison Dukes -17.5, only $46 available; Under 56.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.8 consensus.
TOM: total 56.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -24.5 | -1708 |
| FPI | -21.0 | -1084 |
| Sagarin | -20.5 | -969 |
| Massey | -18.0 | -737 |
| Market (18 books) | -18.5 | -1012 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.5 | 58.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | James Madison Dukes -18.5 | -115 | -109 | -1.4% |
| Moneyline | James Madison Dukes ML | -1100 | -875 | priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.6.
TOM: spread -18.5 here against -18.8 consensus; total 56.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at NebraskaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNebraska -14.5should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -690 | +483 |
All 21 books
| Nebraska spread | Total (over) | Nebraska ML | Maryland ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | -14.5 -116 52¢ | 52.5 -107 50¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -770 | +510 |
| BetAnything | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| BetMGM | -14.5 -108 | 52.5 -110 | -650 | +500 |
| BetOnline.ag | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -675 | +491 |
| betPARX | -14.5 -112 | 52 -112 | -770 | +510 |
| BetRivers | -14.5 -112 | 52 -113 | -770 | +450 |
| BetUS | -15 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| Bovada | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -106 | -675 | +475 |
| Courtside | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -108 | -646 | +508 |
| DraftKings | -14.5 -112 | 52.5 -110 | -675 | +490 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -14.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -690 | +480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -105 | -750 | +500 |
| LowVig.ag | -14.5 -106 | 52.5 -108 | -675 | +491 |
| MyBookie.ag | -14.5 -110 | 52.5 -110 | -752 | +490 |
| Pinnacle | -14.5 -109 | 52.5 -109 | -690 | +483 |
| ReBet | -15.5 -114 | 52.5 -114 | -800 | +470 |
| theScore Bet | -14.5 -105 | 52.5 -110 | -750 | +475 |
Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 67°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.
Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Maryland Terrapins +14.5, only $73 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -15.0 | -549 |
| FPI | -20.0 | -882 |
| Sagarin | -15.5 | -553 |
| Massey | -13.0 | -424 |
| Market (19 books) | -14.5 | -621 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 52.5 | 51.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Nebraska Cornhuskers ML | -690 | -535 | priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 52.5 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New MexicoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pmNew Mexico -22.5should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.
The spread
The total
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -116 52¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -106 | -1923 | +1013 |
All 21 books
| New Mexico spread | Total (over) | New Mexico ML | UTEP ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 48.5 -116 52¢ | -2042 95¢ | +1464 6¢ |
| Bally Bet | -23 -108 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1200 |
| BetAnything | -22.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -2250 | +1050 |
| BetMGM | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2000 | +1200 |
| BetOnline.ag | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -2250 | +1106 |
| betPARX | -23 -108 | 48.5 -112 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -22.5 -114 | 48.5 -113 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -22.5 -115 | 48.5 -105 | -2250 | +1150 |
| Bovada | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Courtside | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -108 | -1882 | +1177 |
| DraftKings | -22.5 -112 | 48.5 -110 | -2100 | +1100 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -23.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in | 7¢ +1011 all-in |
| Fanatics | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -1800 | +1050 |
| FanDuel | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -2800 | +1160 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -22.5 -110 | 49.5 +100 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -22.5 -111 | 48.5 -108 | -2250 | +1106 |
| MyBookie.ag | -22.5 -110 | 49 -110 | -2000 | +950 |
| Pinnacle | -22.5 -109 | 48.5 -106 | -1923 | +1013 |
| ReBet | -23.5 -114 | 48.5 -116 | -2273 | +880 |
| theScore Bet | -22.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | — | +1300 |
Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -34.0 | — |
| FPI | -27.5 | -2271 |
| Sagarin | -25.0 | -1842 |
| Massey | -19.5 | -866 |
| Market (18 books) | -22.5 | -1789 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 51.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New Mexico Lobos -22.5 | -110 | -116 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | New Mexico Lobos ML | -1800 | -1534 | priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 48.5 | -110 | -110 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic OwlsTexas Southern at Florida AtlanticCFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pmTexas Southern +44should be Texas Southern +39.5 · getting 4.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida Atlantic by 44.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 44.5 to Florida Atlantic by 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
All 13 books
| Florida Atlantic spread | Total (over) | Florida Atlantic ML | Texas Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -44.5 -109 | 61.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -44 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -44.5 -109 | 61.5 -108 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -44.5 -110 | 61.5 -109 | — | — |
| Courtside | -43.5 -108 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -43.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | -42.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -44 -110 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -44.5 -108 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -44.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -44 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -44.5 -111 | 61.5 -113 | — | — |
Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F, 57% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.7 for it.
Kalshi thin: Under 61.5, only $98 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
The ratings sit 11 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| FPI | doesn't rate Texas Southern | |
| Sagarin | -32.5 | — |
| Massey | rates Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -44.0 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Southern Tigers +44.0 | -110 | -159 | +8.9% |
| Moneyline | Texas Southern Tigers ML | +8204 | — | priced at 1 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
The line is -44.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmBYU -6.5should be BYU -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6.5, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +201 | -240 |
All 21 books
| TCU spread | Total (over) | TCU ML | BYU ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +185 | -235 |
| Kalshi | +6.5 | 47.5 | +198 32¢ | -250 70¢ |
| Bally Bet | +6.5 -113 | 47.5 -107 | +215 | -275 |
| BetMGM | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| BetOnline.ag | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +195 | -235 |
| betPARX | +6.5 -113 | 47.5 -107 | +215 | -275 |
| BetRivers | +6.5 -114 | 47.5 -108 | +200 | -275 |
| BetUS | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +200 | -235 |
| Bovada | +6.5 -110 | 48 -105 | +200 | -240 |
| Caesars | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -117 | +200 | -245 |
| Courtside | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +199 | -232 |
| DraftKings | +6.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +195 | -238 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +6.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 32¢ +194 all-in | 70¢ -257 all-in |
| Fanatics | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +200 | -245 |
| FanDuel | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -108 | +188 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +6.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | +220 | -275 |
| LowVig.ag | +6.5 -101 | 47.5 -108 | +195 | -235 |
| MyBookie.ag | +6.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +210 | -265 |
| Pinnacle | +6.5 -105 | 48 -105 | +201 | -240 |
| ReBet | +6.5 -109 | 47.5 -119 | +204 | -270 |
| theScore Bet | +6.5 -105 | 47.5 -105 | +200 | -240 |
Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F, 36% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward BYU).
Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $32 available; Over 47.5, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +193 here against +225 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +6.0 | +201 |
| FPI | +6.5 | +212 |
| Sagarin | +0.5 | +101 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +113 |
| Market (18 books) | +6.5 | +193 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | TCU Horned Frogs +6.5 | -105 | -101 | -0.9% |
| Moneyline | TCU Horned Frogs ML | +200 | +210 | -1.1% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 4.7.
TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.8 consensus; moneyline +193 here against +225 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal CarolinaCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmGeorgia Southern -2.5should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | — |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 54 -108 | +115 | -132 |
All 21 books
| Coastal Carolina spread | Total (over) | Coastal Carolina ML | Georgia Southern ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 | 54.5 -103 49¢ | +114 45¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +112 | -139 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +110 | -130 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -108 | 53.5 -112 | +112 | -139 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -109 | 53.5 -113 | +112 | -139 |
| BetUS | +2.5 -110 | 54 -105 | +115 | -135 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -103 | +116 | -132 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -105 | +114 | -135 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 54.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 -115 | +110 | -132 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 53.5 -110 | +110 | -140 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -106 | 54 -103 | +115 | -135 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 54 -110 | +113 | -139 |
| Pinnacle | +2.5 -105 | 54 -108 | +115 | -132 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -111 | 53.5 -119 | +111 | -142 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -110 | 54.5 -110 | +110 | -130 |
Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $14 available; Under 54.5, only $474 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $56 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +0.5 | +101 |
| FPI | +2.0 | +118 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -103 |
| Massey | +1.5 | +110 |
| Market (18 books) | +2.5 | +120 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 54.0 | 54.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5 | -110 | -103 | -1.7% |
| Moneyline | Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML | +115 | +118 | -0.6% |
| Total | Over 54.0 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at RiceCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pmUTSA -11.5should be UTSA -11.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 11.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -105 | 56 -109 | +362 | -479 |
All 21 books
| Rice spread | Total (over) | Rice ML | UTSA ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 | 56.5 -107 50¢ | +373 20¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Bally Bet | +11.5 -109 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -530 |
| BetAnything | +11.5 -110 | 56.5 -110 | +340 | -450 |
| BetMGM | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +360 | -450 |
| BetOnline.ag | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +350 | -450 |
| betPARX | +11.5 -109 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -530 |
| BetRivers | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +380 | -560 |
| BetUS | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -450 |
| Bovada | +12 -110 | 56 -110 | +355 | -490 |
| Courtside | +11.5 -110 | 56.5 -106 | +360 | -440 |
| DraftKings | +11.5 -112 | 56.5 -108 | +350 | -455 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +11.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 54.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 21¢ +335 all-in | 81¢ -488 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -108 | +365 | -490 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +11.5 -110 | 55.5 -110 | +375 | -525 |
| LowVig.ag | +11.5 -106 | 56 -108 | +350 | -450 |
| MyBookie.ag | +11.5 -110 | 56 -110 | +340 | -461 |
| Pinnacle | +11.5 -105 | 56 -109 | +362 | -479 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 55.5 -116 | +340 | -500 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 56.5 -115 | +380 | -550 |
Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 85°F, 85% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +10.5, now +11.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward UTSA).
Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +11.5, only $61 available; Under 56.5, only $377 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +434 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +12.0 | +404 |
| FPI | +11.5 | +398 |
| Sagarin | +11.0 | +382 |
| Massey | +13.5 | +452 |
| Market (18 books) | +11.5 | +355 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 56.0 | 58.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | UTSA Roadrunners ML | -450 | -397 | priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 56.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.5.
TOM: moneyline +355 here against +434 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise StateCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmBoise State -20.5should be Boise State -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 20.5.
The spread
The total
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -101 | 51.5 -110 | -1325 | +783 |
All 22 books
| Boise State spread | Total (over) | Boise State ML | Utah State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -20.5 -103 49¢ | 51.5 -112 51¢ | — | +944 9¢ |
| Bally Bet | -19.5 -114 | 52.5 -107 | — | +1200 |
| BetAnything | -20.5 -110 | 51 -110 | -1700 | +950 |
| BetMGM | -20 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -1400 | +900 |
| BetOnline.ag | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +836 |
| betPARX | -19.5 -114 | 52.5 -107 | — | +1200 |
| BetRivers | -19.5 -114 | 52.5 -108 | — | +1200 |
| BetUS | -20 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +825 |
| Bovada | -20 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
| Caesars | -20.5 -109 | 51.5 -107 | -1450 | +850 |
| Courtside | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -106 | -1467 | +953 |
| DraftKings | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -108 | -1600 | +900 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -20.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 51.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 93¢ -1901 all-in | 10¢ +733 all-in |
| Fanatics | -20 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +850 |
| FanDuel | -20.5 -108 | 51.5 -110 | -1700 | +920 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -19.5 -115 | 52.5 -105 | -3000 | +1200 |
| LowVig.ag | -20.5 -104 | 51.5 -108 | -1400 | +836 |
| MyBookie.ag | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1790 | +907 |
| Pinnacle | -20.5 -101 | 51.5 -110 | -1325 | +783 |
| ReBet | -20.5 -114 | 51.5 -111 | -1408 | +690 |
| theScore Bet | -20.5 -110 | 51.5 -110 | -1400 | +750 |
Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.
Kalshi thin: Utah State Aggies +20.5, only $34 available; Under 51.5, only $46 available; Boise State Broncos ML, only $446 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -19.0 | -829 |
| FPI | -20.5 | -914 |
| Sagarin | -19.5 | -865 |
| Massey | -13.5 | -454 |
| Market (19 books) | -20.5 | -1273 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 50.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Utah State Aggies +20.5 | -112 | -103 | -2.0% |
| Moneyline | Utah State Aggies ML | +900 | +897 | priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.1.
TOM matches the consensus.
The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at ClemsonCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmMiami -16.5should be Miami -16.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 16.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 16.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 | 46.5 -136 56¢ | +625 13¢ | -788 88¢ |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 +102 | 48.5 -103 | +592 | -901 |
All 20 books
| Clemson spread | Total (over) | Clemson ML | Miami ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | +16.5 | 46.5 -136 56¢ | +625 13¢ | -788 88¢ |
| Bally Bet | +17 -110 | 48 -110 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetAnything | +16.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +575 | -850 |
| BetMGM | +17 -120 | 47.5 -118 | +600 | -800 |
| BetOnline.ag | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +586 | -850 |
| betPARX | +17 -110 | 48 -110 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetRivers | +17 -110 | 48 -112 | +600 | -1000 |
| BetUS | +16.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +580 | -850 |
| Bovada | +17 -110 | 48 -110 | +575 | -900 |
| Caesars | +16.5 -104 | 47.5 -118 | +575 | -850 |
| Courtside | +16.5 -106 | 47.5 -110 | +599 | -807 |
| DraftKings | +16.5 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +575 | -850 |
| Fanatics | +17 -110 | 48 -110 | +600 | -900 |
| FanDuel | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -118 | +640 | -1000 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +16.5 +100 | 48.5 -105 | +600 | -1000 |
| LowVig.ag | +16.5 -101 | 47.5 -114 | +586 | -850 |
| MyBookie.ag | +16.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +538 | -838 |
| Pinnacle | +16.5 +102 | 48.5 -103 | +592 | -901 |
| ReBet | +16.5 -109 | 48.5 -109 | +550 | -952 |
| theScore Bet | +16.5 -105 | 47.5 -115 | +500 | -800 |
Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 73°F, 86% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened +17.5, now +16.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Clemson Tigers +16.5, only $14 available; Under 46.5, only $144 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +18.5 | +797 |
| FPI | +16.0 | +581 |
| Sagarin | +8.0 | +284 |
| Massey | +9.5 | +315 |
| Market (19 books) | +16.5 | +785 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Clemson Tigers +17.0 | -110 | -108 | -0.5% |
| Moneyline | Clemson Tigers ML | +640 | +596 | priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.8.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USCCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pmUSC -9should be USC -9 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The total
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -120 | 59 -115 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 60.5 +109 46¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Pinnacle | -9 -114 | 58.5 -112 | -381 | +300 |
All 22 books
| USC spread | Total (over) | USC ML | Washington ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -9 -120 | 59 -115 | -375 | +285 |
| Kalshi | -9.5 -121 53¢ | 60.5 +109 46¢ | -360 77¢ | +296 24¢ |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 58.5 -113 | -420 | +320 |
| BetAnything | -10 -110 | 59 -110 | -400 | +320 |
| BetMGM | -10 -108 | 58.5 -112 | -375 | +300 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9 -120 | 59 -115 | -375 | +299 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 58.5 -113 | -420 | +320 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -114 | -435 | +320 |
| BetUS | -10 -110 | 59 -110 | -375 | +300 |
| Bovada | -9.5 -115 | 59 -110 | -390 | +295 |
| Caesars | -10 -107 | 58.5 -114 | -360 | +285 |
| Courtside | -9.5 -118 | 58.5 -110 | -364 | +303 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -118 | 58.5 -112 | -375 | +295 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 57.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 78¢ -401 all-in | 25¢ +270 all-in |
| Fanatics | -9.5 -115 | 59 -110 | -375 | +290 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -115 | -375 | +290 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -9.5 -115 | 58.5 -110 | -425 | +325 |
| LowVig.ag | -9 -116 | 59 -114 | -375 | +299 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10 -110 | 59 -110 | -380 | +285 |
| Pinnacle | -9 -114 | 58.5 -112 | -381 | +300 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -109 | 58.5 -119 | -391 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -9.5 -115 | 59.5 -105 | -400 | +300 |
Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 95°F.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.
TOM: total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -8.0 | -286 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -421 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -352 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -200 |
| Market (19 books) | -9.0 | -359 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 59.0 | 57.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | USC Trojans -9.0 | -120 | -101 | -4.3% |
| Moneyline | USC Trojans ML | -375 | -310 | -3.3% |
| Total | Under 59.0 | -105 | -106 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35; total has moved up 1.1.
TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus; total 59.0 here against 58.6 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at ColoradoCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:31pmTexas Tech -12.5should be Texas Tech -13 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 13. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.
The spread
The total
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +345 | -475 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Pinnacle | +11 -105 | 50 -112 | +368 | -490 |
All 22 books
| Colorado spread | Total (over) | Colorado ML | Texas Tech ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +345 | -475 |
| Kalshi | +11.5 -103 49¢ | 50.5 -112 51¢ | +398 19¢ | -490 82¢ |
| Bally Bet | +12.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +375 | -500 |
| BetAnything | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| BetMGM | +12.5 -118 | 50.5 -108 | +375 | -475 |
| BetOnline.ag | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +367 | -475 |
| betPARX | +12.5 -112 | 50.5 -108 | +375 | -500 |
| BetRivers | +12.5 -113 | 50.5 -109 | +370 | -530 |
| BetUS | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -500 |
| Bovada | +11 -110 | 50.5 -105 | +360 | -500 |
| Caesars | +12.5 -109 | 50.5 -107 | +380 | -500 |
| Courtside | +12.5 -108 | 50.5 -108 | +381 | -468 |
| DraftKings | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +370 | -485 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +12.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 51.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 20¢ +355 all-in | 83¢ -566 all-in |
| Fanatics | +11.5 -110 | 50 -110 | +360 | -475 |
| FanDuel | +11.5 -108 | 50.5 -105 | +360 | -480 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +12.5 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +375 | -500 |
| LowVig.ag | +12.5 -106 | 50.5 -108 | +367 | -475 |
| MyBookie.ag | +13 -110 | 50.5 -110 | +390 | -549 |
| Pinnacle | +11 -105 | 50 -112 | +368 | -490 |
| ReBet | +11.5 -111 | 50.5 -114 | +360 | -526 |
| theScore Bet | +11.5 -105 | 49.5 -115 | +360 | -500 |
Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.
Across the books: opened +16.0, now +11.5 (the market moved 4.4 toward Colorado). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 50.5, only $168 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +11.6 consensus.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +361 here against +445 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +21.5 | +1116 |
| FPI | +15.5 | +556 |
| Sagarin | +10.5 | +368 |
| Massey | +13.0 | +430 |
| Market (19 books) | +12.5 | +361 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 49.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Texas Tech Red Raiders -11.5 | -110 | -109 | -0.3% |
| Moneyline | Texas Tech Red Raiders ML | -475 | -433 | priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 50.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.
TOM: spread +12.5 here against +11.6 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.2 consensus; moneyline +361 here against +445 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at RutgersCFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pmIndiana -23should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 23.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 23.5 to Indiana by 23. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Pinnacle | +24 -112 | 56 -109 | +1111 | -2207 |
All 22 books
| Rutgers spread | Total (over) | Rutgers ML | Indiana ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +23 -105 | 55.5 -115 | — | — |
| Kalshi | — | 56.5 -112 51¢ | +1464 6¢ | -2042 95¢ |
| Bally Bet | +24 -107 | 56 -112 | +1300 | — |
| BetAnything | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | — | — |
| BetMGM | +23.5 -105 | 55.5 -112 | +1250 | -2500 |
| BetOnline.ag | +23 -108 | 55.5 -115 | +1096 | -2200 |
| betPARX | +24 -107 | 56 -112 | +1300 | — |
| BetRivers | +24 -108 | 56 -113 | +1300 | — |
| BetUS | +23 -108 | 56 -110 | +1150 | -2400 |
| Bovada | +24 -115 | 56 -110 | +1000 | -2200 |
| Caesars | +23.5 -107 | 55.5 -117 | +1200 | — |
| Courtside | +23.5 -103 | 56.5 -103 | +1290 | -2122 |
| DraftKings | +23.5 -105 | 56.5 -105 | +1200 | -2400 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +23.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 57.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 7¢ +1011 all-in | 95¢ -3233 all-in |
| Fanatics | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | +1200 | -2200 |
| FanDuel | +23.5 -105 | 55.5 -114 | +1280 | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | +24.5 -115 | 55.5 -115 | +1300 | — |
| LowVig.ag | +23 -104 | 55.5 -114 | +1096 | -2200 |
| MyBookie.ag | +24 -110 | 56 -110 | +1042 | -2524 |
| Pinnacle | +24 -112 | 56 -109 | +1111 | -2207 |
| ReBet | +24.5 -116 | 56.5 -109 | +860 | -2273 |
| theScore Bet | +23.5 -105 | 55.5 -115 | +1200 | -3000 |
Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 62°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 56.5, only $146 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.9 consensus.
TOM: total 55.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +26.5 | +2008 |
| FPI | +26.0 | +1954 |
| Sagarin | +16.5 | +594 |
| Massey | +22.0 | +1205 |
| Market (19 books) | +23.0 | +2024 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 55.5 | 60.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Indiana Hoosiers -23.0 | -115 | -120 | +1.1% |
| Moneyline | Indiana Hoosiers ML | -2400 | -1676 | priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 55.5 | -115 | -119 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +23.0 here against +23.9 consensus; total 55.5 here against 55.9 consensus.
The line is +23.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.
McNeese State Cowboys at LSU TigersMcNeese at LSUCFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:45pmNo ratingthe ratings don't cover this gameNo ratingBuck's case ›
No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -53 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
All 13 books
| LSU spread | Total (over) | LSU ML | McNeese ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 61.5 -112 51¢ | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -53.5 -113 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -53 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| betPARX | -53.5 -113 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| BetRivers | -53.5 -113 | 61.5 -112 | — | — |
| Courtside | -53.5 -108 | 60.5 -108 | — | — |
| DraftKings | -53.5 -110 | 60.5 -110 | — | — |
| DraftKings Predictions | — | 60.5 56¢ -138 all-in | — | — |
| Fanatics | -53 -110 | 61 -115 | — | — |
| FanDuel | -53.5 -110 | 61.5 -106 | — | — |
| Hard Rock Bet | -53.5 -110 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
| LowVig.ag | -53 -115 | 61.5 -115 | — | — |
| ReBet | -52.5 -112 | 61.5 -110 | — | — |
Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 70% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -48.5, now -53.5 (the market moved 4.8 toward LSU).
Kalshi thin: Under 61.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| FPI | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Sagarin | doesn't rate McNeese | |
| Massey | rates McNeese and LSU on different scales | |
| Market (11 books) | -53.5 | — |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 61.5 | — |
Line move: spread has moved 4.8 toward LSU Tigers since 09-30 09:06.
No usable prices or projections for this game.
Sun Oct 4
14 games3 Damn Near Nasty. Strongest: Colts at Commanders, Commanders +4.0.Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at CommandersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutralCommanders +4Moved our way · 1 ptshould be Commanders +3 · getting 1 pt at TOMDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Commanders +4.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.7% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Commanders's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +166 | -196 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 +101 | 47.5 -112 | +170 | -200 |
All 26 books
| Commanders spread | Total (over) | Commanders ML | Colts ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +166 | -196 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -103 49¢ | 47.5 -116 52¢ | +159 37¢ | -191 64¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3.5 -107 | 47.5 -106 | +160 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +170 | -200 |
| BetMGM | +4 -112 | 47.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +171 | -196 |
| betPARX | +3.5 -107 | 47.5 -106 | +160 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +3.5 -107 | 47.5 -106 | +160 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +167 | -195 |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 48 -105 | +170 | -200 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 47.5 -112 | +162 | -193 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 47.5 -106 | +163 | -188 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 47.5 -108 | +160 | -192 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 38¢ +150 all-in | 65¢ -203 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -105 | 47.5 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -112 | +160 | -190 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +150 | -195 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +160 | -190 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -107 | 47.5 -107 | +171 | -196 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +153 | -199 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 +101 | 47.5 -112 | +170 | -200 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 47.5 -108 | +170 | -178 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +161 | -192 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 47.5 -115 | +165 | -195 |
Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Commanders +4.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.
Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $60 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Micheal Clemons (DE, Colts).
Neutral site, so no home field in the number.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +1.5 | +108 |
| Sagarin | PK | -100 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +108 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +173 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.5 | 49.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Washington Commanders +4.0 | -110 | -123 | +2.7% |
| Moneyline | Washington Commanders ML | +166 | +153 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 47.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 1.4.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +3.6 consensus.
Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at TexansNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmCowboys +3should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuelDamn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. Cowboys +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.0% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Cowboys's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -129 | 48 -110 | -162 | +140 |
All 26 books
| Texans spread | Total (over) | Texans ML | Cowboys ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -162 | +132 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 +109 46¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -161 60¢ | +134 41¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -108 | 48 -110 | -157 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +140 |
| BetMGM | -3 -108 | 48 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -162 | +142 |
| betPARX | -3 -108 | 48 -110 | -157 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -3 -108 | 48 -110 | -157 | +125 |
| BetUS | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +138 |
| Bovada | -3 -110 | 48 -115 | -165 | +140 |
| Caesars | -3 -110 | 48.5 -106 | -159 | +135 |
| Courtside | -3 -110 | 48.5 -103 | -159 | +139 |
| DraftKings | -3 -112 | 48.5 -105 | -162 | +136 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in | 42¢ +127 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -165 | +135 |
| FanDuel | -3 -110 | 47.5 -115 | -162 | +136 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -125 | 48.5 -105 | -155 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -160 | +135 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -108 | 48 -107 | -162 | +142 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -110 | 48 -110 | -167 | +130 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -129 | 48 -110 | -162 | +140 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 | 48.5 +100 | -150 | +144 |
| ReBet | -3.5 +100 | 47.5 -120 | -160 | +136 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -110 | 48.5 -115 | -150 | +130 |
Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Kalshi thin: Houston Texans -3.5, only $279 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Jalen Thompson (S, Cowboys), Azeez Al-Shaair (LB, Texans) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -116 |
| FPI | +1.0 | +104 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -101 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -149 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -155 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 48.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys +3.0 | -110 | -124 | +3.0% |
| Moneyline | Dallas Cowboys ML | +132 | +122 | +2.0% |
| Total | Over 48.0 | -110 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.7 consensus.
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm49ers -2.5should be 49ers -3 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was -3Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Damn Near Nasty. 49ers -2.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 48.5 -105 | -141 | +123 |
All 26 books
| 49ers spread | Total (over) | 49ers ML | Broncos ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -116 52¢ | 48.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +118 44¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 47.5 -112 | -139 | +114 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 47.5 -112 | -139 | +114 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 47.5 -112 | -139 | +114 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -120 | 48.5 -105 | -148 | +125 |
| Courtside | -3 +102 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -3 +100 | 47.5 -110 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -112 | -148 | +126 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -155 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -105 | 48 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -112 | 48.5 -107 | -145 | +125 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 +100 | 48 -110 | -160 | +125 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -111 | 48.5 -105 | -141 | +123 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -108 | 48.5 +100 | — | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -133 | 47.5 -120 | -147 | +125 |
| theScore Bet | -3 +100 | 48.5 -105 | -145 | +125 |
Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -2.5 · -116 (52¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 86°F.
Kalshi thin: San Francisco 49ers ML, only $120 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos), Nick Gargiulo (G, Broncos) and 2 more.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -4.0 | -185 |
| FPI | -8.5 | -350 |
| Sagarin | -4.0 | -183 |
| Massey | -5.0 | -210 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -139 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.5 | 47.2 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 | -116 | -127 | +2.2% |
| Moneyline | San Francisco 49ers ML | -145 | -158 | +2.0% |
| Total | Under 48.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 2.4.
TOM matches the consensus.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at BengalsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJaguars +2.5should be Jaguars +2 · getting 0.5 pts at KalshiA Little Nasty · JaguarsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Jaguars. Market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 2. At +101 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this week
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 51 -108 | -150 | +130 |
All 26 books
| Bengals spread | Total (over) | Bengals ML | Jaguars ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +118 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -121 53¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | -148 58¢ | +124 43¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -118 | 51 -112 | -145 | +125 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -119 | 51.5 -110 | -143 | +123 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -109 | -141 | +116 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 51.5 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Bovada | -3 +100 | 51 -110 | -150 | +130 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 51.5 -107 | -141 | +119 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -139 | +122 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -102 | -142 | +120 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 51.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 59¢ -157 all-in | 44¢ +117 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -120 | 51 -110 | -150 | +125 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -142 | +120 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -105 | -145 | +115 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 51 -110 | -145 | +125 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -113 | 51.5 -107 | -143 | +123 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 -110 | -150 | +118 |
| Pinnacle | -2.5 -119 | 51 -108 | -150 | +130 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -113 | 51.5 +100 | -138 | +133 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 51.5 -109 | -144 | +123 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 51.5 +100 | -140 | +120 |
Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +2.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $426 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jalen Davis (CB, Bengals).
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -118 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +102 |
| Sagarin | -1.0 | -105 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +107 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 51.5 | 49.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5 | +101 | -108 | +2.1% |
| Moneyline | Jacksonville Jaguars ML | +125 | +115 | +2.1% |
| Total | Under 51.5 | -110 | -111 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 1.0.
TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.
Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at GiantsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmGiants +2.5should be Giants +1.5 · getting 1 pt at Kalshi · was -2.5A Little Nasty · GiantsBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Giants. Market says Cardinals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Cardinals by 1.5. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts
Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +116 | -141 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Pinnacle | +2 +103 | 44.5 -102 | +119 | -137 |
All 26 books
| Giants spread | Total (over) | Giants ML | Cardinals ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +116 | -141 |
| Kalshi | +2.5 -107 50¢ | 44.5 -103 49¢ | +118 44¢ | -143 57¢ |
| Bally Bet | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetAnything | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +115 | -135 |
| BetOnline.ag | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -110 | +121 | -141 |
| betPARX | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetRivers | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -109 | +110 | -134 |
| BetUS | +2 +100 | 44.5 -110 | +121 | -141 |
| Bovada | +2.5 -110 | 44 -115 | +120 | -140 |
| Caesars | +2.5 -109 | 44.5 -105 | +116 | -137 |
| Courtside | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -106 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -108 | 44.5 -108 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 45.5 47¢ +104 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in |
| Fanatics | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -105 | +115 | -140 |
| FanDuel | +2.5 -110 | 43.5 -118 | +116 | -134 |
| Fliff | +2.5 -115 | 44.5 -105 | +110 | -140 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +2.5 -110 | 44 -110 | +115 | -135 |
| LowVig.ag | +2.5 -102 | 44.5 -107 | +121 | -141 |
| MyBookie.ag | +2.5 -110 | 44.5 -110 | +110 | -141 |
| Pinnacle | +2 +103 | 44.5 -102 | +119 | -137 |
| Polymarket | +2.5 +100 | 44.5 | +122 | -127 |
| ReBet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -109 | +118 | -139 |
| theScore Bet | +2.5 -105 | 44.5 -110 | +120 | -140 |
Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +2.5 · -108 (50¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.
Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.0. The market has moved 4.6 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.
Kalshi thin: Over 44.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.
Also out: Brian Burns (LB, Giants).
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.2 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -3.5 | -178 |
| FPI | +0.5 | +100 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -251 |
| Massey | PK | -100 |
| Market (22 books) | +2.5 | +121 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 44.5 | 43.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New York Giants ML | +116 | +109 | +1.5% |
| Spread | New York Giants +2.5 | -108 | -112 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 44.5 | -110 | -104 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.9.
TOM: spread +2.5 here against +2.2 consensus.
Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at RavensNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmOver 42Moved our way · 1.5 ptsshould be 43.1 · getting 1.1 pts · was 44.5A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Over 42.0. Massey and FPI say over by 2.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -105 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -107 | -701 | +489 |
All 26 books
| Ravens spread | Total (over) | Ravens ML | Titans ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -11.5 -105 | 42 -110 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -11.5 -107 50¢ | 42.5 -112 51¢ | -660 86¢ | +530 15¢ |
| Bally Bet | -11.5 -110 | 43 -108 | -715 | +500 |
| BetAnything | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -670 | +470 |
| BetMGM | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +525 |
| BetOnline.ag | -11.5 -107 | 42.5 -108 | -680 | +494 |
| betPARX | -11.5 -110 | 43 -108 | -715 | +500 |
| BetRivers | -11.5 -110 | 43 -108 | -715 | +500 |
| BetUS | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -680 | +490 |
| Bovada | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +475 |
| Caesars | -11.5 -106 | 42.5 -114 | -700 | +480 |
| Courtside | -11.5 -106 | 42.5 -113 | -669 | +519 |
| DraftKings | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -115 | -700 | +500 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -11.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 42.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 87¢ -809 all-in | 16¢ +456 all-in |
| Fanatics | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -700 | +500 |
| FanDuel | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -770 | +540 |
| Fliff | -11.5 -115 | 42.5 -120 | -885 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -12 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -12 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -12 -110 | 42.5 -115 | -800 | +525 |
| LowVig.ag | -11.5 -105 | 42.5 -105 | -680 | +494 |
| MyBookie.ag | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -800 | +480 |
| Pinnacle | -11.5 -108 | 42.5 -107 | -701 | +489 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 -117 | 42.5 -104 | -614 | +567 |
| ReBet | -11.5 -110 | 42.5 -110 | -800 | +550 |
| theScore Bet | -11.5 -105 | 42.5 -115 | -900 | +550 |
Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 64°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).
Kalshi thin: Under 42.5, only $88 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans).
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -11.5 | -450 |
| FPI | -11.5 | -441 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -433 |
| Massey | -11.0 | -434 |
| Market (22 books) | -11.5 | -637 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.0 | 44.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tennessee Titans +11.5 | -110 | -100 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Tennessee Titans ML | +540 | +444 | priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 42.0 | -110 | -115 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.1.
TOM: total 42.0 here against 42.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at RaidersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmUnder 48should be 47 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Chiefs by 4.5 to Chiefs by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -105 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -114 | 48 -101 | +176 | -208 |
All 26 books
| Raiders spread | Total (over) | Raiders ML | Chiefs ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +4 -105 | 48 -105 | +170 | -210 |
| Kalshi | +4.5 -116 52¢ | 47.5 -112 51¢ | +166 36¢ | -208 66¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4.5 -109 | 48 -109 | +180 | -220 |
| BetAnything | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| BetMGM | — | 47.5 -108 | +175 | -210 |
| BetOnline.ag | +4 -105 | 48 -105 | +180 | -210 |
| betPARX | +4.5 -109 | 48 -109 | +180 | -220 |
| BetRivers | +4.5 -109 | 48 -109 | +180 | -220 |
| BetUS | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +180 | -210 |
| Bovada | +4 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -210 |
| Caesars | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -114 | +177 | -213 |
| Courtside | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -113 | +184 | -213 |
| DraftKings | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -115 | +180 | -218 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +4.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | +175 | -215 |
| FanDuel | +4.5 -108 | 47.5 -110 | +184 | -220 |
| Fliff | +4.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | +175 | -230 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -220 |
| LowVig.ag | +4 -102 | 48 -102 | +180 | -210 |
| MyBookie.ag | +4.5 -110 | 48 -110 | +172 | -224 |
| Pinnacle | +4.5 -114 | 48 -101 | +176 | -208 |
| Polymarket | +4.5 -108 | 48.5 +113 | +186 | -194 |
| ReBet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -120 | +180 | -216 |
| theScore Bet | +4.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | +180 | -215 |
Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Raiders).
Kalshi thin: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5, only $72 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 2 more.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus.
TOM: moneyline +178 here against +196 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +4.5 | +190 |
| FPI | +5.0 | +203 |
| Sagarin | +4.0 | +181 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +145 |
| Market (22 books) | +4.0 | +178 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -4.0 | -115 | -105 | -2.3% |
| Moneyline | Kansas City Chiefs ML | -210 | -193 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.
TOM: spread +4.0 here against +4.5 consensus; moneyline +178 here against +196 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at PanthersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pmPanthers +3.5should be Panthers +3.5 at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Panthers is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -116 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 51.5 -105 | +165 | -193 |
All 26 books
| Panthers spread | Total (over) | Panthers ML | Lions ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -116 | +160 | -190 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -107 50¢ | 51.5 -103 49¢ | +166 36¢ | -200 65¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -114 | 51 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -105 | 51 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -110 | 50.5 -116 | +165 | -190 |
| betPARX | +4 -114 | 51 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetRivers | +4 -114 | 51 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +163 | -190 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -105 | 51.5 -110 | +165 | -195 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -108 | 50.5 -118 | +164 | -197 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 51.5 +100 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 51.5 -102 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 51.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 37¢ +156 all-in | 66¢ -212 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +160 | -195 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -104 | 50.5 -115 | +168 | -200 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -110 | 51.5 -105 | +160 | -210 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +4 -110 | 51 -110 | +165 | -200 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -104 | 50.5 -114 | +165 | -190 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 51 -110 | +156 | -202 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -103 | 51.5 -105 | +165 | -193 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 +100 | 51.5 +100 | +178 | -186 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -109 | 51.5 -109 | +163 | -194 |
| theScore Bet | +4 -115 | 51.5 +100 | +170 | -200 |
Marked: best for Panthers, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Panthers +3.5 · -104 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F, 43% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Panthers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $7 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Cade Mays (C, Lions) and 2 more.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.3 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.0 | +120 |
| FPI | +2.5 | +123 |
| Sagarin | +1.0 | +104 |
| Massey | +3.0 | +149 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +167 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 50.5 | 52.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Carolina Panthers +3.5 | -104 | -107 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Carolina Panthers ML | +168 | +164 | +0.6% |
| Total | Over 50.5 | -116 | -114 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 1.8.
TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.3 consensus.
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at EaglesNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmEagles +3should be Eagles +3 at FanDuel · was +2.5Not NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 3, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 43.5 -113 | +148 | -172 |
All 26 books
| Eagles spread | Total (over) | Eagles ML | Rams ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -170 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -126 54¢ | 43.5 -116 52¢ | — | -175 62¢ |
| Bally Bet | +3 -109 | 43.5 -113 | +140 | -175 |
| BetAnything | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +150 | -170 |
| BetMGM | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3 -105 | 43.5 -110 | +149 | -170 |
| betPARX | +3 -109 | 43.5 -113 | +140 | -175 |
| BetRivers | +3 -109 | 43.5 -113 | +140 | -175 |
| BetUS | +3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +146 | -170 |
| Bovada | +3 -105 | 44 -105 | +150 | -175 |
| Caesars | +3 -110 | 43.5 -113 | +140 | -170 |
| Courtside | +3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +139 | -159 |
| DraftKings | +3 -112 | 43.5 -112 | +136 | -162 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 55¢ -132 all-in | 42.5 56¢ -138 all-in | 40¢ +138 all-in | 62¢ -178 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3 -105 | 43.5 -115 | +140 | -170 |
| FanDuel | +3 -105 | 43.5 -120 | +138 | -164 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -130 | 43.5 -110 | +145 | -185 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3 +100 | 43.5 -115 | +140 | -165 |
| LowVig.ag | +3 +100 | 43.5 -107 | +149 | -170 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +129 | -166 |
| Pinnacle | +3 +100 | 43.5 -113 | +148 | -172 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -117 | 43.5 +100 | +150 | — |
| ReBet | +3.5 -133 | 43.5 -120 | +135 | -159 |
| theScore Bet | +3 -110 | 43.5 -110 | +140 | -165 |
Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +3.0 · -105 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F, 30% chance of rain.
Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $7 available; Philadelphia Eagles ML, only $42 available; Los Angeles Rams ML, only $303 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +1.5 | +110 |
| FPI | +3.0 | +140 |
| Sagarin | +2.5 | +122 |
| Massey | +1.0 | +103 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.0 | +146 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.5 | 45.3 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles +3.0 | -105 | -109 | +0.8% |
| Moneyline | Philadelphia Eagles ML | +140 | +138 | +0.4% |
| Total | Over 43.5 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Los Angeles Rams since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.5.
TOM matches the consensus.
New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at BearsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmJets +3should be Jets +3 at TOMNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -122 | 43 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 43.5 +101 48¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 -122 | 43 -107 | -180 | +157 |
All 26 books
| Bears spread | Total (over) | Bears ML | Jets ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -3 -122 | 43 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| Kalshi | -3.5 | 43.5 +101 48¢ | -182 63¢ | +146 39¢ |
| Bally Bet | -3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetAnything | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| BetMGM | -3.5 -102 | 43 -110 | -185 | +150 |
| BetOnline.ag | -3 -122 | 43 -110 | -180 | +157 |
| betPARX | -3 -118 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetRivers | -3.5 -104 | 42.5 -109 | -175 | +140 |
| BetUS | -3 -122 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Bovada | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -180 | +155 |
| Caesars | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -117 | -176 | +149 |
| Courtside | -3.5 -105 | 42.5 -122 | -171 | +148 |
| DraftKings | -3.5 -105 | 43.5 +100 | -175 | +145 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -3.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in |
| Fanatics | -3.5 -105 | 43 -110 | -180 | +150 |
| FanDuel | -3.5 -102 | 42.5 -118 | -176 | +148 |
| Fliff | -3.5 +100 | 43.5 -105 | -190 | +150 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -3 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -3 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -3 -120 | 42.5 -115 | -175 | +145 |
| LowVig.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -107 | -180 | +157 |
| MyBookie.ag | -3 -120 | 43 -110 | -187 | +145 |
| Pinnacle | -3 -122 | 43 -107 | -180 | +157 |
| Polymarket | -3.5 +104 | 43.5 +100 | -170 | +163 |
| ReBet | -3.5 -109 | 42.5 -120 | -179 | +151 |
| theScore Bet | -3 -120 | 43.5 +100 | -175 | +150 |
Marked: best for Jets, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jets +3.0 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.
Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -3.5, only $412 available; New York Jets +3.5, only $242 available; Under 43.5, only $349 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Doubtful. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.
Also out: Braxton Jones (OT, Bears), Dylan Parham (G, Jets), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears) and 1 more.
New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.0 | -200 |
| FPI | -1.5 | -188 |
| Sagarin | -7.0 | -397 |
| Massey | -6.0 | -347 |
| Market (22 books) | -3.0 | -172 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 43.0 | 42.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | New York Jets +3.0 | +102 | -103 | +1.3% |
| Moneyline | New York Jets ML | +150 | +144 | +1.0% |
| Total | Under 43.0 | -110 | -103 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
TOM matches the consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at BillsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmBills -6.5should be Bills -6.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Bills by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bills by 7 to Bills by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 49 -107 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 48.5 -110 | -312 | +253 |
All 26 books
| Bills spread | Total (over) | Bills ML | Patriots ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -6.5 -117 | 49 -107 | -300 | +240 |
| Kalshi | -6.5 -121 53¢ | 48.5 -107 50¢ | -306 74¢ | +252 27¢ |
| Bally Bet | -6.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetAnything | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -310 | +250 |
| BetMGM | -7 -105 | 48.5 -108 | -325 | +260 |
| BetOnline.ag | -6.5 -117 | 49 -107 | -300 | +245 |
| betPARX | -6.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetRivers | -6.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -315 | +250 |
| BetUS | -7 +100 | 49 -105 | -300 | +250 |
| Bovada | -7 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -310 | +255 |
| Caesars | -6.5 -117 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| Courtside | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -108 | -283 | +241 |
| DraftKings | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -110 | -290 | +235 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -6.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 75¢ -335 all-in | 28¢ +233 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -105 | 48.5 -110 | -320 | +250 |
| FanDuel | -6.5 -122 | 48.5 -114 | -340 | +275 |
| Fliff | -6.5 -120 | 48.5 -115 | -350 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -325 | +250 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -101 | 49 -104 | -300 | +245 |
| MyBookie.ag | -6.5 -115 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +224 |
| Pinnacle | -7 -101 | 48.5 -110 | -312 | +253 |
| Polymarket | -6.5 -113 | 48.5 +100 | -270 | +257 |
| ReBet | -6.5 -125 | 48.5 -110 | -300 | +246 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -105 | 48.5 -115 | -320 | +260 |
Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.
Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Bills).
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.
TOM: total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -6.0 | -245 |
| FPI | -6.5 | -254 |
| Sagarin | -5.0 | -210 |
| Massey | -5.5 | -228 |
| Market (22 books) | -6.5 | -287 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 47.7 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6.5 | -117 | -105 | -2.7% |
| Moneyline | Buffalo Bills ML | -300 | -272 | -1.9% |
| Total | Under 49.0 | -113 | -109 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.3.
TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 49.0 here against 48.5 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at BuccaneersNFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pmPackers -3.5should be Packers -3.5 · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 39.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -131 55¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -106 | +161 | -188 |
All 26 books
| Buccaneers spread | Total (over) | Buccaneers ML | Packers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +155 | -185 |
| Kalshi | +3.5 -116 52¢ | 37.5 -131 55¢ | +152 38¢ | -182 63¢ |
| Bally Bet | +4 -114 | 39 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetAnything | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +155 | -180 |
| BetMGM | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| BetOnline.ag | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +161 | -185 |
| betPARX | +4 -114 | 39 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetRivers | +4 -114 | 39 -112 | +155 | -195 |
| BetUS | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +159 | -185 |
| Bovada | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +160 | -185 |
| Caesars | +3.5 -109 | 38.5 -110 | +154 | -190 |
| Courtside | +3.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | +153 | -176 |
| DraftKings | +3.5 -108 | 38.5 -112 | +150 | -180 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +3.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 39.5 48¢ -100 all-in | 39¢ +144 all-in | 64¢ -194 all-in |
| Fanatics | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -110 | +155 | -190 |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -108 | 38.5 -115 | +150 | -178 |
| Fliff | +3.5 -115 | 38.5 -115 | +155 | -200 |
| Hard Rock Bet | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +150 | -180 |
| LowVig.ag | +3.5 -109 | 38.5 -107 | +161 | -185 |
| MyBookie.ag | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | +147 | -190 |
| Pinnacle | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -106 | +161 | -188 |
| Polymarket | +3.5 -108 | 38.5 -104 | +163 | -170 |
| ReBet | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 | +154 | -182 |
| theScore Bet | +3.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | +150 | -175 |
Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 88°F.
Also out: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers).
Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | +2.5 | +125 |
| FPI | +4.0 | +182 |
| Sagarin | -0.5 | -103 |
| Massey | -1.0 | -105 |
| Market (22 books) | +3.5 | +162 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 44.1 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 | -108 | -106 | -0.6% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +155 | +166 | -1.7% |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -110 | -116 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 2.8.
TOM matches the consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at VikingsNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pmVikings -10.5should be Vikings -11 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 11. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Vikings by 10 to Vikings by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Pinnacle | -11 +102 | 38.5 -113 | -601 | +434 |
All 26 books
| Vikings spread | Total (over) | Vikings ML | Dolphins ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -105 | — | — |
| Kalshi | -10.5 -103 49¢ | 38.5 -116 52¢ | -564 84¢ | +456 17¢ |
| Bally Bet | -10.5 -109 | 39.5 -108 | -625 | +450 |
| BetAnything | -10.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| BetMGM | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -625 | +475 |
| BetOnline.ag | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -107 | -615 | +455 |
| betPARX | -10.5 -109 | 39.5 -108 | -625 | +450 |
| BetRivers | -10.5 -109 | 39.5 -108 | -625 | +450 |
| BetUS | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -615 | +460 |
| Bovada | -10.5 -105 | 39 -105 | -625 | +430 |
| Caesars | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -113 | -625 | +450 |
| Courtside | -10.5 -106 | 38.5 -108 | -576 | +455 |
| DraftKings | -10.5 -108 | 38.5 -110 | -600 | +440 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -10.5 51¢ -113 all-in | 39.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 18¢ +400 all-in |
| Fanatics | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -650 | +460 |
| FanDuel | -10.5 -115 | 38.5 -114 | -650 | +480 |
| Fliff | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -115 | -710 | +440 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -11 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -11 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -11 -110 | 38.5 -110 | -650 | +450 |
| LowVig.ag | -10.5 -105 | 38.5 -104 | -615 | +455 |
| MyBookie.ag | -10.5 -110 | 39 -110 | -725 | +450 |
| Pinnacle | -11 +102 | 38.5 -113 | -601 | +434 |
| Polymarket | -10.5 +100 | 38.5 -108 | -525 | +488 |
| ReBet | -10.5 -110 | 38.5 -120 | -676 | +490 |
| theScore Bet | -10.5 -105 | 38.5 -115 | -700 | +450 |
Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Under 38.5, only $205 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Josh Oliver (TE, Vikings), Charles Demmings (CB, Vikings), Storm Duck (CB, Dolphins).
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -12.5 | -469 |
| FPI | -11.0 | -436 |
| Sagarin | -12.0 | -460 |
| Massey | -10.5 | -424 |
| Market (22 books) | -10.5 | -554 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 38.5 | 38.9 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -10.5 | -103 | -103 | -0.0% |
| Moneyline | Minnesota Vikings ML | -564 | -435 | priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 38.5 | -105 | -102 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 4.1.
TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.8 consensus.
Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at SeahawksNFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pmSeahawks -7should be Seahawks -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no betNot NastyBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +104 | 43 -102 | -340 | +272 |
All 25 books
| Seahawks spread | Total (over) | Seahawks ML | Chargers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -7 -116 | 42.5 -115 | -345 | +270 |
| Bally Bet | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetAnything | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| BetMGM | -7 -115 | 42.5 -110 | -350 | +280 |
| BetOnline.ag | -7 -116 | 42.5 -112 | -345 | +278 |
| betPARX | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetRivers | -7 -112 | 43 -112 | -360 | +265 |
| BetUS | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -330 | +270 |
| Bovada | -7 -115 | 42.5 -115 | -340 | +270 |
| Caesars | -7 -112 | 42.5 -118 | -335 | +265 |
| Courtside | -7 -113 | 42.5 -116 | -369 | +308 |
| DraftKings | -7 -115 | 42.5 -118 | -380 | +300 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -7.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 42.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 76¢ -355 all-in | 26¢ +257 all-in |
| Fanatics | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -350 | +275 |
| FanDuel | -7 -115 | 43.5 -105 | -370 | +295 |
| Fliff | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -390 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -7 -115 | 43 -110 | -375 | +275 |
| LowVig.ag | -7 -112 | 42.5 -109 | -345 | +278 |
| MyBookie.ag | -7.5 +100 | 43 -110 | -370 | +265 |
| Pinnacle | -7.5 +104 | 43 -102 | -340 | +272 |
| Polymarket | -7.5 | 42.5 -108 | -300 | +285 |
| ReBet | -7.5 -105 | 42.5 -120 | -350 | +280 |
| theScore Bet | -7 -115 | 42.5 -120 | -360 | +280 |
Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.
Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Seahawks). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Seattle Seahawks -7.5, only $187 available; Under 42.5, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.
TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -7.0 | -280 |
| FPI | -7.5 | -319 |
| Sagarin | -6.5 | -252 |
| Massey | -10.0 | -404 |
| Market (22 books) | -7.0 | -330 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 42.5 | 40.4 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7.0 | -116 | -107 | -2.1% |
| Moneyline | Seattle Seahawks ML | -345 | -304 | -2.3% |
| Total | Under 42.5 | -105 | -101 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-26 16:16.
TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Mon Oct 5
1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at SaintsAtlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at SaintsNFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pmUnder 48should be 46.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47.5A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. Nothing there.
The spread
The spread this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
The total
The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48 -105 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Pinnacle | -3 +111 | 48.5 +105 | -140 | +124 |
All 26 books
| Saints spread | Total (over) | Saints ML | Falcons ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOM | -2.5 -116 | 48 -105 | -142 | +117 |
| Kalshi | -2.5 -112 51¢ | 47.5 | -136 56¢ | +114 45¢ |
| Bally Bet | -2.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -152 | +125 |
| BetAnything | -2.5 -116 | 47.5 -110 | -142 | +122 |
| BetMGM | -2.5 -112 | 47.5 -108 | -145 | +120 |
| BetOnline.ag | -2.5 -116 | 48 -105 | -142 | +122 |
| betPARX | -2.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -152 | +125 |
| BetRivers | -2.5 -117 | 48 -113 | -152 | +125 |
| BetUS | -2 -120 | 47.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Bovada | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -145 | +125 |
| Caesars | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -115 | -150 | +127 |
| Courtside | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +127 |
| DraftKings | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -112 | -148 | +124 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -2.5 52¢ -117 all-in | 48.5 49¢ -104 all-in | 58¢ -150 all-in | 45¢ +113 all-in |
| Fanatics | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -145 | +120 |
| FanDuel | -2.5 -118 | 47.5 -110 | -144 | +122 |
| Fliff | -2.5 -120 | 47.5 -115 | -150 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -110 | -140 | +120 |
| LowVig.ag | -2.5 -110 | 48 -102 | -142 | +122 |
| MyBookie.ag | -2.5 -115 | 48 -110 | -149 | +117 |
| Pinnacle | -3 +111 | 48.5 +105 | -140 | +124 |
| Polymarket | -2.5 -104 | 47.5 | -133 | +127 |
| ReBet | -2.5 -125 | 47.5 -110 | -143 | +122 |
| theScore Bet | -2.5 -115 | 47.5 -115 | -135 | +115 |
Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.
Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $12 available; Over 47.5, only $348 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Travis Etienne Jr. (RB, Saints), Trey Sermon (RB, Falcons), Cameron Williams (OL, Falcons) and 2 more.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -2.5 | -137 |
| FPI | -4.0 | -192 |
| Sagarin | -3.5 | -175 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -158 |
| Market (22 books) | -2.5 | -136 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 48.0 | 43.5 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | New Orleans Saints ML | -136 | -143 | +1.1% |
| Spread | New Orleans Saints -2.5 | -116 | -114 | -0.4% |
| Total | Under 48.0 | -115 | -117 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved up 0.7.
TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.8 consensus.
Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.
Tue Oct 6
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at TroyCFB Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pmTroy -9should be Troy -9 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
All 7 books
| Troy spread | Total (over) | Troy ML | Southern Miss ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | 49.5 | — | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -375 | +285 |
| betPARX | -9.5 -110 | 49.5 -114 | -375 | +285 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -112 | 49.5 -115 | -385 | +285 |
| Courtside | -8.5 -108 | 48.5 -108 | -331 | +277 |
| DraftKings | -8.5 -110 | 48.5 -110 | -340 | +270 |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -120 | 50.5 -115 | -400 | +310 |
Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 68°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.
Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Southern Miss). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.
Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans -9.5, only $2 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +9.5, only $2 available; Over 49.5, only $108 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | -12.0 | -402 |
| FPI | -5.5 | -191 |
| Sagarin | -10.5 | -371 |
| Massey | -7.0 | -256 |
| Market (6 books) | -9.0 | -333 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.5 | 47.6 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +9.5 | -102 | -101 | -0.1% |
| Moneyline | Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML | +310 | +308 | priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Under 49.5 | -110 | -107 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles since 09-30 18:06; total has moved down 1.2.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Wed Oct 7
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw StateCFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pmKennesaw State +3.5should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt
FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.
The total
The total this week
TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.
The number hasn't moved since it opened.
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -167 61¢ |
All 5 books
| Kennesaw State spread | Total (over) | Kennesaw State ML | Jacksonville State ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | — | -167 61¢ |
| Courtside | +2.5 -103 | 48.5 -113 | +122 | -139 |
| DraftKings | +2.5 -105 | 48.5 -115 | +120 | -142 |
| DraftKings Predictions | +2.5 53¢ -122 all-in | 48.5 57¢ -144 all-in | 47¢ +104 all-in | 61¢ -170 all-in |
| FanDuel | +3.5 -115 | 50.5 -110 | +134 | -162 |
Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.
Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.
Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +2.5, only $7 available; Jacksonville State Gamecocks -2.5, only $168 available; Over 50.5, only $54 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| SP+ | +7.5 | +262 |
| FPI | +0.5 | -100 |
| Sagarin | -3.0 | -136 |
| Massey | +3.5 | +163 |
| Market (3 books) | +3.0 | +137 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 49.0 | 51.0 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Kennesaw State Owls +3.5 | -115 | -129 | +2.8% |
| Moneyline | Kennesaw State Owls ML | +134 | +124 | +1.8% |
| Total | Over 49.0 | -110 | -108 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Line move: total has moved down 1.3.
Priced once the new ratings land.
Thu Oct 8
1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at CowboysNFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pmCowboys -9.5should be Cowboys -9.5 · no betWaitingBuck's case ›
Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.
The spread
The total
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -524 83¢ | — |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
All 14 books
| Cowboys spread | Total (over) | Cowboys ML | Buccaneers ML | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | — | — | -524 83¢ | — |
| Bally Bet | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetOnline.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| betPARX | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetRivers | -9.5 -114 | 47 -112 | -560 | +400 |
| BetUS | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | — | — |
| Caesars | -9.5 -114 | 46.5 -118 | -530 | +400 |
| DraftKings | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -110 | -520 | +390 |
| DraftKings Predictions | -9.5 54¢ -127 all-in | 48.5 50¢ -108 all-in | 85¢ -670 all-in | 22¢ +317 all-in |
| FanDuel | -9.5 -110 | 46.5 -115 | -520 | +400 |
| Fliff | -9.5 -110 | 47.5 -105 | -515 | +345 |
| LowVig.ag | -9.5 -105 | 47 -107 | — | — |
| MyBookie.ag | -9.5 -110 | 47 -110 | -500 | +340 |
| ReBet | -9.5 -120 | 47.5 -109 | -481 | +350 |
Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.
If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.
Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $0 available; Dallas Cowboys -9.5, only $5 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5, only $138 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.
Also out: Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Jalen Thompson (S, Cowboys), Jonathan Bullard (DT, Cowboys).
Full detail
| Power rating | Their line | Home ML |
|---|---|---|
| nfelo | -9.0 | -358 |
| FPI | -12.5 | -470 |
| Sagarin | -6.0 | -234 |
| Massey | -3.0 | -144 |
| Market (12 books) | -9.5 | -469 |
| Total | Market | SP+ projects |
|---|---|---|
| Points | 47.0 | 48.8 |
| Market | Play | Price | Nasty Number | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5 | -110 | -101 | -2.2% |
| Moneyline | Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML | +395 | +372 | priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable |
| Total | Over 47.0 | -110 | -105 | shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet |
Priced once the new ratings land.
The Receipts
The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."
How it's going
What these numbers mean
One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.
How the last picks finished
Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.
Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games
Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-3 · -2.05 unitsSep 15 to 21
1-2 · -1.05 unitsSep 8 to 14
2-1 · +0.78 unitsNasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game
Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 8 to 14
1-0 · +1.92 unitsDamn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
1-2 · -1.11 unitsSep 15 to 21
3-1 · +1.77 unitsSep 8 to 14
0-1 · -1.00 unitsA Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games
Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.
Sep 22 to 28
7-11 · -5.18 unitsSep 15 to 21
2-6 · -4.11 unitsSep 8 to 14
12-12 · -1.08 units10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.
See which ones
8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.
1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.
1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.
The group
Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.
Record by call
Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.
| At kickoff we said | Record | Hit rate | Units | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest) | 4-6 | 40.0% | -2.3 u | small sample |
| Nasty Dog | 1-0 | 100.0% | +1.9 u | small sample |
| Damn Near Nasty | 4-4 | 50.0% | -0.3 u | small sample |
| A Little Nasty | 21-29 | 42.0% | -10.4 u | |
| Not Nasty | 193 games | — | — | no call to grade |
What the results are teaching us
Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-30 18:06.
College
How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 9.97 | 113 |
| FPI | 10.57 | 169 |
| The market | 10.65 | 230 |
| SP+ | 10.66 | 169 |
| Sagarin | 12.11 | 220 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 115 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 113 |
| SP+ | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 115 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 139 |
The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.
The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.
NFL
How much of our own number to use. On 31 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.
| Number | Misses the final by | Games |
|---|---|---|
| The market | 10.46 | 48 |
| Massey | 10.69 | 31 |
| nfelo | 10.86 | 48 |
| Sagarin | 10.88 | 48 |
| FPI | 11.26 | 33 |
Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.
| System | Vote now | Best vote | Would save, pts a game | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FPI | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 31 |
| Massey | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 31 |
| Sagarin | 1.00 | 1.50 | 0.04 | 31 |
| nfelo | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 31 |
The line archive, 48 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.79 points better than the close on average over 43 games. The close misses the final by 10.46, the open by 10.60, our raw ratings number by 10.93, Pinnacle's close by 10.45. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 8.00, Polymarket 9.54, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.13.
The head start. 112 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 26, average 0.40 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 57.
What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.
| Setting | Games | Our miss | Market's | Picks |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| as it runs | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| ratings 0% | 311 | 10.63 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 5% | 311 | 10.56 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 15% | 311 | 10.42 | 10.53 | 0-0 |
| ratings 45% | 311 | 10.05 | 10.53 | 1-1 |
| Sagarin half a vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Sagarin no vote | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| FPI a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
| Massey a vote and a half | 311 | 10.23 | 10.53 | 0-1 |
Four seasons, measured
Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.
| College | Record | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack | 232-184 | 55.8% | the rule behind stale-number picks |
| Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack | 733-642 | 53.3% | |
| Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack | 217-182 | 54.4% | |
| Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack | 804-717 | 52.9% | |
| Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close | 841-797 | 51.3% | why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge |
| Favourites laying 17 or more | 1,540 games | 49.2% covered | why lines past 17 aren't priced |
| Under in 15+ mph wind | 430 games | 53.0% | why windy totals get pulled down |
Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.
Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.
NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.
| NFL | Bets | Hit rate | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number | 245 | 56.3% | the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5 |
| Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number | 309 | 58.9% | |
| Market moved 3+, bet the old number | 278 | 63.7% | |
| Move crosses 3, bet the old number | 308 | 56.8% | any size, if it crosses 3 |
| Move crosses 7, bet the old number | 174 | 58.0% | any size, if it crosses 7 |
| nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side | 273 | 54.2% | why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty |
Under the hood
It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.
Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.
The head start: 112 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung
A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 112 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 57. Not a record; nothing here is graded.
| Game | Sniff said | Line then | Line at the rung | Our way | Full board |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCF at Houston | UCF +10.5 | 10.5 | 11.2 | -0.7 | same side |
| UL Monroe at South Alabama | Over | 54.5 | 55.9 | +1.4 | no call |
| Washington at USC | Over | 53.5 | 56.4 | +2.9 | no call |
| West Virginia at Iowa State | Iowa State +2 | 2 | -2.7 | +4.7 | same side |
| Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans | Dallas +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco -2.9 | -2.9 | -2.5 | -0.4 | no call |
| Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay +3.5 | 3.5 | 4 | -0.5 | no call |
| Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals | Jacksonville +2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | +0.0 | no call |
| Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders | Under | 48 | 48 | +0.0 | same side |
| Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks | Under | 43.5 | 42.5 | +1.0 | no call |
| New York Jets at Chicago Bears | New York +3 | 3 | 3 | +0.0 | no call |
| Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints | Under | 48.5 | 48.5 | +0.0 | same side |
Totals by source, every finished game
Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.
College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SP+ | 120 | 13.4 | 34-46 (42%) | 22-25 (47%) |
| Massey | 123 | 12.6 | 27-34 (44%) | 8-20 (29%) |
| The blend | 125 | 12.8 | 26-36 (42%) | 10-19 (34%) |
NFL, 38 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.8 points on average.
| Source | Games | Misses by | 2+ off the market | 4+ off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massey | 34 | 11.0 | 9-12 (43%) | 4-4 (50%) |
| FPI | 32 | 10.5 | 9-2 (82%) | 6-0 (100%) |
| The blend | 34 | 10.1 | 8-4 (67%) | 3-1 (75%) |
Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.
Ask Buck Nasty
Questions about the board?
He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.
For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.
How Nasty Picks works
Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.
Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.
SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.
The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.
3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.
Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.
A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.
Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.
Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 3 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.
We read 78 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 2 were worth a second look. 5 cleared every check.
Since 8:20am
Nothing has moved.
Where the money went
Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.
- → 4.8McNeese State Cowboys at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
What the results are teaching us
Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.
Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 170 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.
The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.
What it changed by itself
The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.
| When | Sport | Weight | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | College | 30% → 27% | the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30% |
Who predicts best
Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.
| Source | Games | Avg miss |
|---|---|---|
| Massey | 144 | 10.12 |
| The market | 278 | 10.61 |
| SP+ | 169 | 10.66 |
| FPI | 202 | 10.68 |
| nfelo | 48 | 10.86 |
| Sagarin | 268 | 11.89 |
Does the score sort anything?
Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.
| Score | W-L | Cover rate |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 to 1.5 | 124-126 | 50% |
| 1.5 to 3.0 | 3-8 | 27% |
| 3.0 to 5.0 | 5-6 | 45% |
The line archive
Every book's price, saved on every run. 860027 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.
A number moves 1.18 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.
| Book | Games | Avg points moved |
|---|---|---|
| DraftKings | 368 | 1.46 |
| FanDuel | 400 | 1.46 |
| Kalshi | 194 | 1.40 |
| BetRivers | 388 | 1.34 |
| BetOnline.ag | 360 | 1.32 |
| LowVig.ag | 352 | 1.32 |
| ReBet | 174 | 1.29 |
| MyBookie.ag | 288 | 1.26 |
| Bally Bet | 180 | 1.25 |
| betPARX | 180 | 1.24 |
| BetMGM | 354 | 1.15 |
| BetUS | 289 | 1.14 |
| Caesars | 311 | 1.09 |
| Fanatics | 328 | 1.07 |
| Bovada | 356 | 1.07 |
| TOM | 328 | 1.03 |
| theScore Bet | 177 | 1.01 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 180 | 1.01 |
| Pinnacle | 357 | 1.01 |
| Courtside | 142 | 0.94 |
| BetAnything | 163 | 0.85 |
| Fliff | 130 | 0.78 |
| Hard Rock Bet (OH) | 47 | 0.62 |
| Hard Rock Bet (FL) | 47 | 0.57 |
| Polymarket | 39 | 0.54 |
How current the ratings are
None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.
- FPI updated 4 days ago
- FPI NFL updated yesterday
- Massey college updated yesterday
- Massey nfl updated yesterday
- SP+ updated 3 days ago
- Sagarin updated 4 days ago
- Sagarin NFL updated yesterday
- nfelo updated yesterday