Nasty Picks: college football and NFL bets, graded in public

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Buck Nasty

Nasty

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OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sat 8:03 am · 6 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Temple at South FloridaSouth Florida -4.551¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions+6.7%Sat 6:30pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 8:26am at -5.5 -110. Now South Florida -4.5 -113, a point better. 3 of 4 ratings are on this side. FPI makes it -6.0.-5.5 open Sunnow -5.5Nasty Number -7.5 UCF at HoustonUCF +11.5 -107 at KalshiNasty Pick · called Thu 1:19pmStill a playSat 11:00am Buck's case ›Bet it. UCF +10.5 · -105 at DraftKings, a point worse, 2 cents better than the +11.5 -107 we posted on Thursday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1 ptOhio -3 -110 at TOMNasty Pick · called Mon 9:14amDon't chaseSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Ohio -3 -110 at TOM on Monday; now Ohio -3.5 · -107 at TOM. The number is half a point worse but the price is 3 cents better, from -110 to -107, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -3, you're set. It's a play again at -3 -110 or better.Arkansas State at LouisianaLouisiana -6 -104 at TOMNasty Pick · called Fri 2:02pmStill a playSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›Bet it. Louisiana -6.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi, half a point worse, 1 cent better than the -6 -104 we posted on Friday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted.Texas State at San Diego StateMoved our way · 5.5 ptsSan Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelNasty Pick · called Mon 10:33pmStill a playSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›Bet it. San Diego State +10 · -115 at TOM, 5.5 points better, 9 cents worse than the +4.5 -106 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted.Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKingsNasty Pick · called Mon 12:15amDon't chaseSat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings on Monday; now Cincinnati +6.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from -102 to +104, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +7, you're set. It's a play again at +7 -102 or better.

Buck's Take

6 Nasty Picks and One Nasty Dog on the counter this week: South Florida -4.5, San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel, UCF +11.5 -107 at Kalshi, Louisiana -6 -104 at TOM, Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings, Ohio -3 -110 at TOM and Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel. Read the receipt before you bet it.

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts, Massachusetts -5.5. Every system has Massachusetts by 12.5; the market has Massachusetts by 5.5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -5.5.

Cardinals at Giants, Giants +2.5. Every system has Giants by 2; the market has Cardinals by 2.5. That's a Nasty Pick in college. In the NFL I hold power ratings at damn near until they earn more: 54% over eleven years is real, it's just not the full receipt yet. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 46.5 (Navy at Air Force) at 5.8% after the price. Small money, our side, no receipt. The one moving our way is Louisville at NC State, Over 57.5, down 3 since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Temple at South Florida, South Florida -4.5. That's the one. One unit, on the Receipts.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.

Colts at CommandersCommanders to win +184 at FanDuelNasty Dog · called Fri 9:06amDon't chaseSun 8:30am Buck's case ›Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel on Friday; now Commanders to win · +188 at FanDuel. The number hasn't moved but the price is 4 cents better, from +184 to +188, and at +188 the edge is 0.9%, under the 2.5% a posted pick has to keep. If you already have it, you're set. It's a play again at +184 or better.

Damn Near Nasty

4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Eastern Michigan at MassachusettsMassachusetts -5.5should be Massachusetts -7.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelNeeds a better numberSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.

Where, best first (Massachusetts): FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (6.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -6 at -108 (4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (4.4%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -5.5 at -115 (3.9%).

Cardinals at GiantsGiants +2.5should be Giants +1 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Giants): Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (3.3%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (2.1%) · TOM or Kalshi +2.5 at -107 (1.6%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (1.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (1.1%).

Baylor at Arizona StateBaylor +3.5should be Baylor +2 · getting 1.5 ptsNeeds a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›

The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.

Where, best first (Baylor): Caesars +3.5 at -104 (6.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +3.5 at -105 (6.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -106 (6.1%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (5.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Jaguars at BengalsJaguars +3-115 at Fanatics · 3.2% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this SauceNFL capSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

NFL ratings edges cap here. NFL picks come from stale numbers, not power ratings.

Where, best first (Jaguars): Fanatics +3 at -115 (3.2%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (1.7%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.9%).

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Louisville at NC State, Over 57.5. The total has come down 3 points since it opened. A total, so it stays a sneaky.

Louisville at NC StateMoved our way · 3 ptsOver 57.5should be 59.2 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -112 (1.5%) · Caesars 57.5 at -114 (1.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 57.5 at -115 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.4%).

Bowling Green at Miami (OH)▲Moved our way · 2.5 ptsMiami (OH) -12should be Miami (OH) -13.5 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Miami (OH)): Kalshi -11.5 at 51¢ (0.8%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -12 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -108 (0.4%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Rams at EaglesMoved our way · 2 ptsOver 42.5should be 43.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSun 12:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (0.6%) · Caesars, TOM or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Navy at Air ForceOver 46.5should be 49.3 · getting 2.8 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 45.5 at 49¢ (8.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (7.6%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (7.1%) · TOM 46.5 at -105 (5.8%) · Caesars 46.5 at -106 (5.6%).

Army at Louisiana TechOver 47should be 48.6 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (2.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -115 (1.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (1.9%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.7%).Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 51¢. The price wins.

Fresno State at Washington StateFresno State +1.5should be Fresno State +0.5 · getting 1 pt at CaesarsSat 8:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Fresno State): Caesars +1.5 at -103 (1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2 at -110 (1.3%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -106 (1.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 50¢ (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +2 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1.5 (the games that land on 2); -110 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -103. The price wins.

Broncos at 49ers49ers to winour data says 61 in 100 · -145Sun 3:25pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -144 (1.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -148 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-0.1%).

Oregon State at Colorado StateUnder 62should be 61 · getting 1 ptSat 5:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): TOM 62 at -104 (1.7%) · DraftKings 62.5 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 62.5 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel 62.5 at -114 (0.6%) · Fanatics 62.5 at -115 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 62.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 62 (the games that land on 62); -110 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -104. The price wins by a hair.

San José State at Hawai'iUnder 51should be 49.4 · getting 1.6 ptsSat 10:59pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): TOM 51 at -110 (1.6%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 47¢ (1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (1.4%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (1.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars 50.5 at -108 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 51.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 51 (the games that land on 51); 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Arkansas at Texas A&MOver 50should be 51.4 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (1.3%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (1.2%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (0.9%) · Caesars or Kalshi 50.5 at -107 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Purdue at IllinoisIllinois -10.5should be Illinois -11 · getting 0.5 pts at KalshiSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Illinois): Kalshi -10.5 at 48¢ (1.1%) · BetMGM -10 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Caesars -10.5 at -103 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -10 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10.5 (the games that land on 10); -108 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. A wash; either is fine.

UL Monroe at South AlabamaSouth Alabama -14.5should be South Alabama -15 · getting 0.5 pts at KalshiSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (South Alabama): Kalshi -14.5 at 48¢ (0.9%) · BetMGM -14 at -112 (-0.0%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -122 (-0.2%) · TOM -14 at -114 (-0.4%) · Fanatics -14.5 at -105 (-0.5%).Points or price: -14 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -14.5 (the games that land on 14); -112 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than 48¢. The price wins.

Chiefs at RaidersUnder 48should be 47 · getting 1 ptSun 3:25pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 48 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (0.3%) · TOM 48 at -112 (0.3%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

California at UNLVUnder 53.5should be 52.2 · getting 1.3 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.7%) · TOM 53.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 53.5 (the games that land on 54); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

1 more later this week

Falcons at SaintsUnder 48should be 46.8 · getting 1.2 ptsMon 7:15pm Buck's case ›

Where to bet it

Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.7%) · TOM 48 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.2%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 48 (the games that land on 48); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 4 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Moved closer since the 6:04am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 6:04am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

Bowling Green at Miami (OH) 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -11.5 to -12.0; the price from -116 to -110.
West Virginia at Iowa State 11:00am · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Iowa State -1.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from +3.5 to -2.5; the price from -117 to -122.
Washington at USC 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at USC -7.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -9.0 to -8.5; the price from -110 to -108.
Syracuse at UConn 11:00am · Not Nasty now
Damn Near Nasty at UConn +7.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The price from +100 to -104.
Western Michigan at Buffalo 12:00pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Western Michigan -11.0: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -13.0 to -12.5.
Akron at Central Michigan 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Akron +8.0: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -6.5 to +7.0; the price from -115 to -109.
Florida at Missouri 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Missouri +6.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +5.5 to +6.0; the price from -107 to -109.
Texas Tech at Colorado 6:31pm · Not Nasty now
A Little Nasty at Texas Tech -12.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The price from -110 to -106.

And 2 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record

College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 7:17am✓SagarinSun 7:17am✓MasseySat 6:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 10 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.

NFL ratingsnfeloFri 3:16pm✓FPISat 6:03am✓SagarinFri 3:16pm✓MasseySat 6:03am✓All 4 in the Sauce.

Track record: 28 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.

Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

54 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego State

CFB 9:30pm

San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuelMoved our way · 5.5 pts

Bet it · now San Diego State +10 · -115 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at +4.5 -106Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at San Diego State +4.5 -106 at FanDuel. Bet it. San Diego State +10 · -115 at TOM, 5.5 points better, 9 cents worse than the +4.5 -106 we posted on Monday. Worth a little more than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Texas State by 10, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 6.5.

The spread

← more Texas State than the bookmore San Diego State →

Market

Texas State by 10TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Texas State by 46.2 pts our side

FPI

Texas State by 1.58.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Texas State by 0.59.7 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em10.1 pts our side

Nasty Number

Texas State by 6.53.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean San Diego State. The Nasty Number is 3.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. The raw ratings sit 9 points off the market, which usually means a stale rating, so the number is discounted and this isn't a bet.

The spread this weekbetter now, 5.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 5.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 5.5 points more in San Diego State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

63.95.9 pts over the market

Massey

54.83.2 pts under the market

Nasty Number

59.41.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	Texas State ML
TOM	+10 -115	58 -105	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -107 50¢	+296 24¢	-340 76¢
Pinnacle	+9.5 -101	57.5 -108	+299	-366

All 22 books

	San Diego State spread	Total (over)	San Diego State ML	Texas State ML
TOM	+10 -115	58 -105	+280	-370
Kalshi	+9.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -107 50¢	+296 24¢	-340 76¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -108	57.5 -108	+335	-455
BetAnything	+10 -110	57.5 -110	+320	-400
BetMGM	+10 -118	57.5 -110	+290	-350
BetOnline.ag	+10 -115	58 -105	+296	-370
betPARX	+9.5 -108	57.5 -108	+335	-455
BetRivers	+9.5 -109	57.5 -109	+335	-455
BetUS	+10 -115	57.5 -110	+317	-395
Bovada	+9.5 -105	57.5 -110	+290	-380
Caesars	+9.5 -112	57.5 -110	+275	-345
Courtside	+9.5 -108	57.5 -110	+287	-345
DraftKings	+9.5 -108	57.5 -112	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 49¢ -104 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in
Fanatics	+9.5 -105	57.5 -110	+290	-375
FanDuel	+10.5 -120	57.5 -105	+290	-375
Fliff	+8.5 -105	57.5 -115	+290	-390
Hard Rock Bet	+9.5 -110	57.5 -110	+325	-450
LowVig.ag	+10 -112	58 -103	+296	-370
MyBookie.ag	+10 -110	57.5 -110	+280	-370
Pinnacle	+9.5 -101	57.5 -108	+299	-366
theScore Bet	+10.5 -110	56.5 -110	+300	-400

Marked: best for San Diego State, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +10.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. The number says yes, but the ratings are too far from the market to trust it. Where, best first (San Diego State): FanDuel +10.5 at -120 (8.9%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics +9.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (8.8%) · TOM +10 at -115 (8.6%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +9.5 at -107 (8.1%) · BetMGM +10 at -118 (7.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Discounted

San Diego State to win · +296 (24¢) at Kalshi

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 25. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: San Diego State loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): Kalshi 24¢ (7.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +290 (6.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (6.5%) · DraftKings or TOM +280 (6.1%) · Caesars +275 (5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 58.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.7%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (0.2%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM 57.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · TOM 58 at -105 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-0.9%).

Sources disagree

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 92°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +9.5. The market has moved 6.1 away from San Diego State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 57.5, only $390 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

The ratings sit 9 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.6 consensus.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.

theScore Bet still has San Diego State +10.5 while Pinnacle is at Texas State by 9.5.

Full detail

We settle onTexas State by 6.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+4.0	+166
FPI	+1.5	+110
Sagarin	+0.5	-100
Massey	PK	-100
Market (19 books)	+10.0	+293

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	59.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	San Diego State Aztecs +10.0	-115	-164	+8.6%
Moneyline	San Diego State Aztecs ML	+296	+208	+7.2%
Total	Over 58.0	-105	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 6.1 toward Texas State Bobcats since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.5.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +9.6 consensus; total 58.0 here against 57.5 consensus; moneyline +293 here against +346 consensus.

Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South Florida

CFB 6:30pm

South Florida -4.5

should be South Florida -7.5 · getting 3 pts · 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Take South Florida -4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. Market says South Florida by 5.5, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.5.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore South Florida →

Market

South Florida by 5.5TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

South Florida by 126.7 pts our side

FPI

South Florida by 60.4 pts our side

Sagarin

South Florida by 7.52.2 pts our side

Massey

South Florida by 11.56 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Florida by 7.51.9 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean South Florida, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Over -117

The Four

SP+ pace

60.812.8 pts over the market

Massey

56.58.5 pts over the market

Weather

-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

57.79.7 pts over the market

Over 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	South Florida spread	Total (over)	South Florida ML	Temple ML
TOM	-5.5 -111	48 -117	-220	+180
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -126 54¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Pinnacle	-6 -101	48 -117	-214	+185

All 22 books

	South Florida spread	Total (over)	South Florida ML	Temple ML
TOM	-5.5 -111	48 -117	-220	+180
Kalshi	-5.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -126 54¢	-218 67¢	+181 34¢
Bally Bet	-6 -107	48.5 -109	-225	+180
BetAnything	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-225	+185
BetMGM	-6 -108	48.5 -110	-225	+188
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -111	48 -117	-220	+186
betPARX	-6 -107	48.5 -109	-225	+180
BetRivers	-6 -108	48.5 -110	-230	+180
BetUS	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-225	+190
Bovada	-5.5 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+180
Caesars	-5.5 -115	48.5 -107	-230	+190
Courtside	-5.5 -112	48.5 -110	-225	+194
DraftKings	-5.5 -112	48.5 -112	-230	+190
DraftKings Predictions	-4.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 53¢ -122 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in	35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-225	+185
FanDuel	-5.5 -115	48.5 -108	-235	+190
Fliff	-5.5 -120	48.5 -115	-235	+185
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+180
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -107	48 -116	-220	+186
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-246	+194
Pinnacle	-6 -101	48 -117	-214	+185
theScore Bet	-6.5 -105	48.5 -105	-230	+195

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -4.5 · 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (South Florida): DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (6.7%) · TOM or Kalshi -5.5 at -111 (5.3%) · DraftKings -5.5 at -112 (5.1%) · BetMGM -6 at -108 (5.0%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (4.5%).

The call

South Florida to win · -220 at TOM

We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 69. That's value. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (South Florida to win): DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (4.8%) · Kalshi 67¢ (4.3%) · TOM -220 (4.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -225 (3.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -230 (3.1%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 48.0 · -117 at TOM

SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 9.7 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 48.5 at -107 (7.2%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -108 (6.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (6.5%) · TOM 48 at -117 (6.4%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -112 (6.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.

DraftKings Predictions still has South Florida -4.5 while Pinnacle is at South Florida by 6.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Florida by 7.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-411
FPI	-6.0	-201
Sagarin	-7.5	-280
Massey	-11.5	-395
Market (19 books)	-5.5	-211

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	57.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Florida Bulls -4.5	-113	-148	+6.7%
Moneyline	South Florida Bulls ML	-220	-268	+4.1%
Total	Over 48.0	-117	-152	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Temple Owls since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 4.3.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.

UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at Houston

CFB 11:00am

UCF +11.5 -107 at Kalshi

Bet it · now UCF +10.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Nasty Pick · called at +11.5 -107Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Thursday at UCF +11.5 -107 at Kalshi. Bet it. UCF +10.5 · -105 at DraftKings, a point worse, 2 cents better than the +11.5 -107 we posted on Thursday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Houston by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Houston by 9.5.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Houston →

Market

Houston by 10.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Houston by 5.54.9 pts our side

FPI

Houston by 73.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Houston by 82.7 pts our side

Massey

Houston by 4.56 pts our side

Nasty Number

Houston by 9.51.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but UCF is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.71.7 pts over the market

Massey

51.80.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.31.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	51.5 +101 48¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	51 -110	-423	+338

All 23 books

	Houston spread	Total (over)	Houston ML	UCF ML
TOM	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-400	+310
Kalshi	-10.5 -112 51¢	51.5 +101 48¢	-404 79¢	+331 22¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -110	51 -114	-435	+330
BetAnything	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-425	+325
BetMGM	-10.5 -110	51.5 -102	-425	+333
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-400	+316
betPARX	-11.5 -110	51 -114	-435	+330
BetRivers	-11.5 -112	51 -115	-480	+330
BetUS	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-400	+320
Bovada	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-440	+330
Caesars	-10.5 -114	51 -109	-440	+340
Courtside	-10.5 -115	50.5 -116	-412	+339
DraftKings	-10.5 -115	50.5 -118	-425	+330
DraftKings Predictions	-10.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
Fanatics	-10.5 -110	51 -110	-425	+325
FanDuel	-11.5 -105	51.5 -106	-450	+340
Fliff	-10.5 -120	51.5 -110	-450	+325
Hard Rock Bet	-11.5 -110	51.5 -105	-425	+325
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -106	51 -108	-400	+316
MyBookie.ag	-11 -110	51 -110	-469	+340
Pinnacle	-10.5 -106	51 -110	-423	+338
ReBet	-11 -114	51 -114	-469	+340
theScore Bet	-11.5 -105	51.5 +100	-425	+320

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +10.5 · -105 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (UCF): DraftKings +10.5 at -105 (2.5%) · Caesars +10.5 at -106 (2.3%) · FanDuel +11.5 at -115 (2.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +10.5 at -107 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

UCF to win · +340 at FanDuel

We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 23, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): FanDuel or Caesars +340 (1.6%) · BetMGM, Kalshi or DraftKings +333 (1.2%) · Fanatics +325 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 22¢ on the app (+317 all-in) (0.3%) · TOM +310 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 51.5 at 48¢ (-0.0%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · Caesars 51 at -109 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.3%).

No side

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -10.5. The market has moved 1.3 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +11.0 or better.

Full detail

We settle onHouston by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.5	-195
FPI	-7.0	-255
Sagarin	-8.0	-284
Massey	-4.5	-179
Market (20 books)	-10.5	-383

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	52.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UCF Knights +10.5	-105	-116	+2.5%
Moneyline	UCF Knights ML	+340	+312	priced at 23 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward UCF Knights since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM matches the consensus.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at Louisiana

CFB 7:00pm

Louisiana -6 -104 at TOM

Bet it · now Louisiana -6.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Nasty Pick · called at -6 -104Bet itBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Friday at Louisiana -6 -104 at TOM. Bet it. Louisiana -6.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi, half a point worse, 1 cent better than the -6 -104 we posted on Friday. Worth a little less than the number we posted, pushes counted. Market says Louisiana by 6, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore Louisiana →

Market

Louisiana by 6TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Louisiana by 8.52.7 pts our side

FPI

Louisiana by 93.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Louisiana by 93.2 pts our side

Massey

Louisiana by 70.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisiana by 71.1 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Louisiana. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

55.77.2 pts over the market

Massey

51.93.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.063% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

52.84.3 pts over the market

Over 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-6 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+180
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -102	48 -113	-232	+199

All 21 books

	Louisiana spread	Total (over)	Louisiana ML	Arkansas State ML
TOM	-6 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+180
Kalshi	-6.5 -103 49¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+198 32¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	48.5 -106	-265	+200
BetAnything	-6 -115	48 -110	-235	+195
BetMGM	-6.5 -115	48.5 -105	-235	+190
BetOnline.ag	-6 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+186
betPARX	-6.5 -115	48.5 -106	-265	+200
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	48.5 -107	-265	+200
BetUS	-6 -110	48 -110	-220	+185
Bovada	-6 -115	48.5 -105	-235	+195
Courtside	-6.5 -105	48.5 -103	-225	+194
DraftKings	-6.5 -105	48.5 -105	-230	+190
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 50¢ -108 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in
Fanatics	-6.5 -105	48.5 -105	-235	+190
FanDuel	-6.5 -110	47.5 -114	-240	+195
Fliff	-5.5 -125	47.5 -125	-245	+190
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	47.5 -115	-260	+200
LowVig.ag	-6 -111	48.5 -108	-220	+186
MyBookie.ag	-6 -110	48 -110	-246	+195
Pinnacle	-6.5 -102	48 -113	-232	+199
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	48.5 -105	-240	+200

Marked: best for Louisiana, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisiana -6.5 · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Louisiana): Kalshi -6.5 at 49¢ (3.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -6.5 at -105 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (2.0%) · TOM -6 at -115 (1.8%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -110 (1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Louisiana to win · -220 at TOM

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): TOM -220 (2.8%) · DraftKings -230 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics or BetMGM -234 (68¢ on the app) (1.5%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -239 (1.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (1.8%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 48.5 at -105 (1.4%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 50¢ (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.6%) · TOM 48.5 at -110 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 63% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.4 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLouisiana by 730% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-304
FPI	-9.0	-308
Sagarin	-9.0	-310
Massey	-7.0	-229
Market (18 books)	-6.0	-211

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	52.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5	-103	-117	+3.2%
Moneyline	Louisiana Ragin Cajuns ML	-220	-251	+2.8%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: spread -6.0 here against -6.4 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at Arizona

CFB 10:00pm

Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings

Don't chase · now Cincinnati +6.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Nasty Pick · called at +7 -102Don't chaseBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Cincinnati +7 -102 at DraftKings on Monday; now Cincinnati +6.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. The number is half a point worse and the price has moved from -102 to +104, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at +7, you're set. It's a play again at +7 -102 or better. Market says Arizona by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.

The spread

← more Cincinnati than the bookmore Arizona →

Market

Arizona by 6.5TOM, -118

The Four

SP+

Arizona by 3.52.8 pts our side

FPI

Arizona by 0.55.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Arizona by 5.50.8 pts our side

Massey

Arizona by 42.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona by 60.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

60.34.3 pts over the market

Massey

54.31.7 pts under the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

56.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Cincinnati ML
TOM	-6.5 -118	56 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-239 69¢	+208 31¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -115	55.5 -113	-254	+216

All 22 books

	Arizona spread	Total (over)	Arizona ML	Cincinnati ML
TOM	-6.5 -118	56 -110	-240	+190
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-239 69¢	+208 31¢
Bally Bet	-7 -106	55.5 -110	-265	+210
BetAnything	-7 +100	56 -110	-245	+205
BetMGM	-7 -102	56.5 -108	-235	+200
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -118	56 -110	-240	+200
betPARX	-7 -106	55.5 -110	-265	+210
BetRivers	-7 -107	55.5 -112	-265	+205
BetUS	-6.5 -115	56 -110	-240	+203
Bovada	-7 -105	56 -110	-260	+215
Caesars	-6.5 -117	56 -108	-245	+200
Courtside	-6.5 -118	55.5 -110	-244	+210
DraftKings	-6.5 -118	55.5 -112	-250	+205
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in	54.5 56¢ -138 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	56 -110	-260	+210
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	55.5 -114	-245	+198
Fliff	-6.5 -125	55.5 -120	-260	+200
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -120	55.5 -110	-260	+210
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -114	56 -108	-240	+200
MyBookie.ag	-7 -110	55.5 -110	-265	+208
Pinnacle	-6.5 -115	55.5 -113	-254	+216
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	56.5 -105	-260	+215

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +6.5 · 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 49 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Cincinnati): DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (2.3%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 48¢ (1.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -115 (1.2%) · DraftKings or TOM +6.5 at -102 (0.8%) · Caesars +6.5 at -104 (0.3%).

The call

Cincinnati to win · 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (1.1%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +210 (0.8%) · DraftKings +205 (0.3%) · Caesars or BetMGM +200 (-0.2%) · FanDuel +198 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or TOM 56 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-2.3%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -106 (-2.3%) · Caesars 56 at -112 (-2.5%).

No side

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 78°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArizona by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.5	-164
FPI	-0.5	-102
Sagarin	-5.5	-197
Massey	-4.0	-173
Market (19 books)	-6.5	-230

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	56.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Cincinnati Bearcats +6.5	+104	-105	+2.3%
Moneyline	Cincinnati Bearcats ML	+212	+202	+1.1%
Total	Under 56.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 55.6 consensus.

Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent State

CFB 2:30pm

Ohio -3 -110 at TOMMoved our way · 1 pt

Don't chase · now Ohio -3.5 · -107 at TOM

Nasty Pick · called at -3 -110Don't chaseBuck's case ›

Nasty Pick. Posted Monday at Ohio -3 -110 at TOM. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Ohio -3 -110 at TOM on Monday; now Ohio -3.5 · -107 at TOM. The number is half a point worse but the price is 3 cents better, from -110 to -107, and that's a different bet from the one we posted, pushes counted. If you already have it at -3, you're set. It's a play again at -3 -110 or better. Market says Ohio by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore Kent State →

Market

Ohio by 3.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

Ohio by 9.56.2 pts our side

FPI

Ohio by 9.55.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Ohio by 40.5 pts our side

Massey

Ohio by 128.5 pts our side

Nasty Number

Ohio by 51.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.12.4 pts under the market

Massey

55.75.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.91.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Kent State spread	Total (over)	Kent State ML	Ohio ML
TOM	+3.5 -113	50.5 -112	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+152 38¢	-175 62¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -109	50.5 -114	+151	-173

All 22 books

	Kent State spread	Total (over)	Kent State ML	Ohio ML
TOM	+3.5 -113	50.5 -112	+135	-165
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	50.5 -107 50¢	+152 38¢	-175 62¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -109	50.5 -108	+140	-177
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	50.5 -110	+145	-165
BetMGM	+3.5 -110	50.5 -112	+145	-175
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -113	50.5 -112	+145	-165
betPARX	+3.5 -109	50.5 -108	+140	-177
BetRivers	+3.5 -110	50.5 -109	+140	-177
BetUS	+3.5 -115	50.5 -110	+142	-165
Bovada	+3.5 -115	51 -110	+150	-175
Courtside	+3.5 -112	50.5 -110	+148	-171
DraftKings	+3.5 -112	50.5 -112	+145	-175
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -115	50.5 -115	+145	-175
FanDuel	+3.5 -114	50.5 -114	+140	-170
Fliff	+3.5 -120	50.5 -120	+140	-180
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	50.5 -110	+140	-175
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -109	50.5 -110	+145	-165
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	50.5 -110	+149	-184
Pinnacle	+3.5 -109	50.5 -114	+151	-173
ReBet	+3.5 -114	50.5 -116	+149	-184
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	50.5 -115	+140	-165

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -3.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Ohio): Fanatics -3.5 at -105 (1.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -106 (1.6%) · TOM -3.5 at -107 (1.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -3.5 at -108 (1.2%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 51¢ (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

The call

Ohio to win · -165 at TOM

We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Ohio to win): TOM -165 (2.4%) · FanDuel -170 (1.7%) · Kalshi, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -175 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (0.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.6%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 50.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.5%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -115 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +161 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+323
FPI	+9.5	+312
Sagarin	+4.0	+170
Massey	+12.0	+406
Market (19 books)	+3.5	+141

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Ohio Bobcats ML	-165	-183	+2.4%
Spread	Ohio Bobcats -3.5	-107	-113	+1.4%
Total	Over 50.5	-112	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +161 consensus.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at Massachusetts

CFB 2:30pm

Massachusetts -5.5

should be Massachusetts -7.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was -4.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Massachusetts -5.5: Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 6.2% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Massachusetts →

Market

Massachusetts by 5.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Massachusetts by 148.5 pts our side

FPI

Massachusetts by 12.57 pts our side

Sagarin

Massachusetts by 6.51.1 pts our side

Massey

Eastern Michigan by 1.57 pts against us

Nasty Number

Massachusetts by 7.51.8 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Massachusetts. Massey at Eastern Michigan by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Massachusetts is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

444.5 pts under the market

Massey

501.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

471.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	48.5 -112	-220	+180
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-218 67¢	+189 33¢
Pinnacle	-6 -103	48.5 -115	-221	+191

All 22 books

	Massachusetts spread	Total (over)	Massachusetts ML	Eastern Michigan ML
TOM	-5.5 -115	48.5 -112	-220	+180
Kalshi	-5.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -112 51¢	-218 67¢	+189 33¢
Bally Bet	-6 -107	48.5 -109	-225	+175
BetAnything	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-220	+180
BetMGM	-6 -108	48.5 -110	-220	+180
BetOnline.ag	-5.5 -115	48.5 -112	-220	+186
betPARX	-6 -107	48.5 -109	-225	+175
BetRivers	-6 -108	48.5 -110	-225	+175
BetUS	-6 -110	48.5 -110	-220	+185
Bovada	-6 -105	49 -110	-225	+185
Courtside	-6 -106	48.5 -108	-220	+189
DraftKings	-6 -108	48.5 -110	-225	+185
DraftKings Predictions	-5.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in
Fanatics	-5.5 -115	49 -110	-225	+185
FanDuel	-5.5 -105	48.5 -112	-205	+168
Fliff	-5.5 -120	48.5 -120	-225	+175
Hard Rock Bet	-5.5 -115	48.5 -110	-220	+175
LowVig.ag	-5.5 -111	48.5 -110	-220	+186
MyBookie.ag	—	49 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-6 -103	48.5 -115	-221	+191
ReBet	-6 -111	49 -111	-238	+190
theScore Bet	-5.5 -105	48.5 -115	-200	+170

Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts -5.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Massachusetts): FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (6.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -6 at -108 (4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (4.4%) · Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -5.5 at -115 (3.9%).

A Little Nasty

Massachusetts to win · -205 at FanDuel

We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 67. That's value. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): FanDuel -205 (5.2%) · Kalshi 67¢ (3.8%) · BetMGM or TOM -220 (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (3.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -225 (3.2%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Under 48.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 49 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi, FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 48.5 at -107 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -5.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -6.0. The market has moved 1.2 toward Massachusetts, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMassachusetts by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-14.0	-483
FPI	-12.5	-418
Sagarin	-6.5	-217
Massey	+1.5	+111
Market (19 books)	-5.5	-211

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	47.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	UMass Minutemen -5.5	-105	-135	+6.2%
Moneyline	UMass Minutemen ML	-205	-262	+5.2%
Total	Under 48.5	-108	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-27 22:42.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -5.9 consensus.

Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona State

CFB 9:30pm

Baylor +3.5

should be Baylor +2 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +4.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +3.5: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 6.1% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Baylor than the bookmore Arizona State →

Market

Arizona State by 3.5TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

Baylor by 36.4 pts our side

FPI

Baylor by 2.56 pts our side

Sagarin

Arizona State by 51.3 pts against us

Massey

Arizona State by 30.3 pts our side

Nasty Number

Arizona State by 21.3 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Baylor. Sagarin at Arizona State by 5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.23.3 pts under the market

Massey

52.84.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

490.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Baylor ML
TOM	-3.5 -114	48.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -121 53¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -109	48.5 -111	-176	+154

All 22 books

	Arizona State spread	Total (over)	Arizona State ML	Baylor ML
TOM	-3.5 -114	48.5 -110	-175	+145
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	47.5 -121 53¢	-175 62¢	+146 39¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -113	48.5 -110	-182	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-175	+151
BetMGM	-3.5 -112	48.5 -108	-175	+145
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -114	48.5 -110	-175	+153
betPARX	-3.5 -113	48.5 -110	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -113	48.5 -112	-182	+145
BetUS	-3.5 -115	48.5 -110	-170	+146
Bovada	-3.5 -115	48.5 -115	-180	+155
Caesars	-3.5 -117	48.5 -110	-179	+149
Courtside	-3.5 -115	48.5 -108	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3.5 -115	48.5 -110	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -115	48.5 -110	-180	+150
FanDuel	-3.5 -115	48.5 -108	-172	+142
Fliff	-3.5 -120	48.5 -115	-185	+145
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-180	+150
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -110	48.5 -108	-175	+153
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	48.5 -110	-179	+145
Pinnacle	-3.5 -109	48.5 -111	-176	+154
theScore Bet	-3.5 -110	48.5 -105	-170	+145

Marked: best for Baylor, higher payout on each moneyline.

Baylor +3.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Baylor): Caesars +3.5 at -104 (6.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings +3.5 at -105 (6.3%) · TOM +3.5 at -106 (6.1%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (5.6%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 51¢ (4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Baylor to win · +154 at DraftKings

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Baylor loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Baylor to win): DraftKings +154 (6.4%) · Fanatics or Caesars +150 (5.8%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or TOM +146 (5.1%) · FanDuel +142 (4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 40¢ on the app (+138 all-in) (3.8%).

Same opinion, more variance

the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.6%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 53¢ (-2.0%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +3.5 · -106 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail

We settle onArizona State by 221% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+3.0	+136
FPI	+2.5	+121
Sagarin	-5.0	-182
Massey	-3.0	-148
Market (19 books)	-3.5	-167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.5	49.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Baylor Bears ML	+154	+118	+6.4%
Spread	Baylor Bears +3.5	-106	-135	+6.1%
Total	Over 48.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'i

CFB 10:59pm

Under 51

should be 49.4 · getting 1.6 pts · was 57.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 51.0. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. The market's total is 51; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more San José State than the bookmore Hawai'i →

Market

Hawai'i by 3TOM, -106

The Four

SP+

Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side

FPI

Hawai'i by 4.51.3 pts our side

Sagarin

Hawai'i by 52.1 pts our side

Massey

Hawai'i by 2.50.5 pts against us

Nasty Number

Hawai'i by 3.50.5 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Hawai'i. Massey at Hawai'i by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM, Under -110

The Four

SP+ pace

46.94.1 pts under the market

Massey

50.8on the market

Weather

-2.116 mph wind, takes 2.1 points off

Nasty Number

46.84.2 pts under the market

Under 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Hawai'i spread	Total (over)	Hawai'i ML	San José State ML
TOM	-3 -106	51 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -126 54¢	-148 58¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 -102	50.5 -113	-145	+128

All 22 books

	Hawai'i spread	Total (over)	Hawai'i ML	San José State ML
TOM	-3 -106	51 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	49.5 -126 54¢	-148 58¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	50.5 -112	-167	+135
BetAnything	-3 -110	51 -110	-145	+125
BetMGM	-3 -108	50.5 -115	-150	+125
BetOnline.ag	-3 -106	51 -110	-145	+125
betPARX	-3 -115	50.5 -112	-167	+135
BetRivers	-3 -117	50.5 -113	-167	+135
BetUS	-2.5 -115	50.5 -110	-145	+125
Bovada	-3 -105	51 -105	-145	+125
Caesars	-2.5 -127	50.5 -112	-148	+125
Courtside	-3 -103	50.5 -110	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -105	50.5 -112	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57¢ -144 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	50.5 -115	-150	+125
FanDuel	-3.5 +100	50.5 -114	-152	+126
Fliff	-3.5 +100	50.5 -120	-155	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	50.5 -110	-165	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 -102	51 -108	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	51 -110	-154	+125
Pinnacle	-3 -102	50.5 -113	-145	+128
theScore Bet	-3.5 +100	50.5 -110	-150	+130

Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -3.0 · -106 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): Fanatics or DraftKings -3 at -105 (2.6%) · TOM -3 at -106 (2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (2.0%) · BetMGM -3 at -108 (1.9%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 54¢ (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Hawai'i to win · 57¢ on the app (-145 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): DraftKings Predictions or TOM -144 (57¢ on the app) (2.7%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -148 (2.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -150 (1.7%) · FanDuel -152 (1.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 2.1 off. That's 4.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 51 at -110 (1.6%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 47¢ (1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (1.4%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (1.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars 50.5 at -108 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.0 · -110 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onHawai'i by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-5.0	-187
FPI	-4.5	-175
Sagarin	-5.0	-187
Massey	-2.5	-121
Market (19 books)	-3.0	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	46.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML	-145	-161	+2.6%
Spread	Hawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.0	-106	-117	+2.4%
Total	Under 51.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 6.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at Illinois

CFB 3:15pm

Illinois -10.5

should be Illinois -11 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi · was -9.5

A Little Nasty · IllinoisBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Illinois. Market says Illinois by 10.5, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. At +101 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore Illinois →

Market

Illinois by 10.5TOM, -108

The Four

SP+

Illinois by 176.6 pts our side

FPI

Illinois by 121.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Illinois by 12.52.2 pts our side

Massey

Illinois by 13.52.8 pts our side

Nasty Number

Illinois by 110.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Illinois. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

63TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

70.77.7 pts over the market

Massey

61.31.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

663 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 62 to 63. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-10.5 -108	63 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-10.5 +101 48¢	63.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+313 23¢
Pinnacle	-10 -105	62.5 -108	-388	+314

All 22 books

	Illinois spread	Total (over)	Illinois ML	Purdue ML
TOM	-10.5 -108	63 -110	-370	+280
Kalshi	-10.5 +101 48¢	63.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+313 23¢
Bally Bet	-10 -108	62.5 -112	-480	+350
BetAnything	-10 -110	62.5 -110	-390	+310
BetMGM	-10 -108	62.5 -110	-375	+300
BetOnline.ag	-10.5 -108	63 -110	-370	+296
betPARX	-10 -108	62.5 -112	-480	+350
BetRivers	-10 -109	62.5 -113	-500	+350
BetUS	-10 -110	63 -110	-370	+295
Bovada	-10 -110	62.5 -110	-410	+305
Caesars	-10.5 -103	62.5 -112	-390	+305
Courtside	-10.5 -105	62.5 -108	-364	+303
DraftKings	-10.5 -105	62.5 -110	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	63.5 49¢ -104 all-in	78¢ -401 all-in	23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	62.5 -110	-400	+310
FanDuel	-10.5 -102	62.5 -114	-385	+300
Fliff	-10.5 -110	62.5 -120	-415	+305
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -120	62.5 -110	-475	+350
LowVig.ag	-10.5 -104	63 -108	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	62.5 -110	-380	+290
Pinnacle	-10 -105	62.5 -108	-388	+314
theScore Bet	-10.5 -105	63.5 -105	-425	+320

Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois -10.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Illinois): Kalshi -10.5 at 48¢ (1.1%) · BetMGM -10 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (0.4%) · Caesars -10.5 at -103 (0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Illinois to win · -370 at TOM

We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (Illinois to win): Kalshi 77¢ (0.9%) · TOM -370 (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -375 (0.2%) · FanDuel -385 (-0.3%) · Caesars -390 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 63.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 71 and Massey projects 61. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 62.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 62.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 62.5 at -114 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 63.5 at 49¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 63.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Illinois -10.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -10.0. The market has moved 0.6 toward Illinois, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus.

TOM: total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIllinois by 1130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-17.0	-657
FPI	-12.0	-409
Sagarin	-12.5	-423
Massey	-13.5	-437
Market (19 books)	-10.5	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	63.0	66.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5	+101	-104	+1.1%
Moneyline	Illinois Fighting Illini ML	-370	-379	+0.4%
Total	Over 63.0	-110	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Illinois Fighting Illini since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 3.1.

TOM: spread -10.5 here against -10.1 consensus; total 63.0 here against 62.6 consensus.

Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington State

CFB 8:30pm

Fresno State +1.5

should be Fresno State +0.5 · getting 1 pt at Caesars

A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore Washington State →

Market

Washington State by 1.5TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

Fresno State by 78.3 pts our side

FPI

Fresno State by 45.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Washington State by 31.5 pts against us

Massey

Washington State by 53.4 pts against us

Nasty Number

Washington State by 0.51.2 pts off the market

2 of 4 systems lean Fresno State. Sagarin at Washington State by 3 and Massey at Washington State by 5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Fresno State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

40.35.2 pts under the market

Massey

45.20.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

42.82.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington State spread	Total (over)	Washington State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	-1.5 -111	45.5 -105	-125	+105
Kalshi	-1.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -102	46 +100	-120	+106

All 22 books

	Washington State spread	Total (over)	Washington State ML	Fresno State ML
TOM	-1.5 -111	45.5 -105	-125	+105
Kalshi	-1.5 -116 52¢	46.5 -103 49¢	-121 53¢	+101 48¢
Bally Bet	-2 -110	45.5 -108	-132	+107
BetAnything	-1.5 -110	45 -110	-125	+105
BetMGM	-2 -108	45.5 -105	-120	+100
BetOnline.ag	-1.5 -111	45.5 -105	-125	+105
betPARX	-2 -110	45.5 -108	-132	+107
BetRivers	-2 -112	45.5 -109	-132	+107
BetUS	-1.5 -110	45 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-2 -105	45.5 -110	-125	+105
Caesars	-1.5 -118	45.5 -106	-124	+105
Courtside	-2.5 -110	45.5 -103	-120	+104
DraftKings	-1.5 -115	45.5 -105	-122	+102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	45.5 -105	-125	+105
FanDuel	-1.5 -114	45.5 -104	-122	+102
Fliff	-2.5 -110	45.5 -115	-130	+100
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -120	45.5 -110	-130	+105
LowVig.ag	-1.5 -107	45.5 -103	-125	+105
MyBookie.ag	-1.5 -110	45 -110	-125	+102
Pinnacle	-2.5 -102	46 +100	-120	+106
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	45.5 +100	-125	+105

Marked: best for Fresno State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Fresno State +1.5 · -103 at Caesars

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): Caesars +1.5 at -103 (1.8%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -105 (1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2 at -110 (1.3%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -106 (1.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 50¢ (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Fresno State to win · +105 at Fanatics

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +105 (1.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +102 (0.5%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +101 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 45.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.4%) · Caesars 45.5 at -114 (-1.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM 45.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -118 (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State +1.5 · -103 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 1.0 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $397 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Washington State -1.5 while Pinnacle is at Washington State by 2.5.

Full detail

We settle onWashington State by 0.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.0	+230
FPI	+4.0	+174
Sagarin	-3.0	-139
Massey	-5.0	-184
Market (19 books)	-1.5	-120

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	42.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Fresno State Bulldogs +1.5	-103	-111	+1.8%
Moneyline	Fresno State Bulldogs ML	+105	-100	+1.2%
Total	Under 45.5	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 0.8.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South Alabama

CFB 6:00pm

South Alabama -14.5

should be South Alabama -15 · getting 0.5 pts at Kalshi

A Little Nasty · South AlabamaBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, South Alabama. Market says South Alabama by 14, the Nasty Number says South Alabama by 15. At +101 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore South Alabama →

Market

South Alabama by 14TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

South Alabama by 161.8 pts our side

FPI

South Alabama by 183.9 pts our side

Sagarin

South Alabama by 18.54.6 pts our side

Massey

South Alabama by 16.52.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

South Alabama by 151 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean South Alabama. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Alabama is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

65.69.1 pts over the market

Massey

59.12.6 pts over the market

Weather

-1.091% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

61.44.9 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 57 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	UL Monroe ML
TOM	-14 -114	56.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 +101 48¢	56.5 -116 52¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -111	57 -104	-633	+472

All 20 books

	South Alabama spread	Total (over)	South Alabama ML	UL Monroe ML
TOM	-14 -114	56.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 +101 48¢	56.5 -116 52¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-14 -114	56.5 -110	-910	+550
BetAnything	-14 -115	56.5 -110	-650	+450
BetMGM	-14 -112	56.5 -110	-600	+450
BetOnline.ag	-14 -114	56.5 -112	-610	+452
betPARX	-14 -114	56.5 -110	-910	+550
BetRivers	-14 -115	56.5 -112	-910	+550
BetUS	-14 -110	56.5 -110	-600	+450
Bovada	-14 -115	56.5 -110	-650	+450
Courtside	-14.5 -108	56.5 -110	-600	+471
DraftKings	-14 -115	56.5 -112	-625	+455
Fanatics	-14.5 -105	56.5 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-13.5 -122	56.5 -110	-650	+460
Fliff	-14.5 -110	56.5 -120	-705	+470
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -105	56.5 -110	-900	+550
LowVig.ag	-14 -110	56.5 -110	-610	+452
MyBookie.ag	-14 -115	56.5 -110	-649	+440
Pinnacle	-14 -111	57 -104	-633	+472
theScore Bet	-14.5 -105	56.5 -105	-750	+475

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama -14.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Alabama): Kalshi -14.5 at 48¢ (0.9%) · BetMGM -14 at -112 (-0.0%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -122 (-0.2%) · TOM -14 at -114 (-0.4%) · Fanatics -14.5 at -105 (-0.5%).

Not Nasty

South Alabama to win · -564 (84¢) at Kalshi

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): Kalshi 84¢ (-0.5%) · BetMGM -600 (-1.2%) · DraftKings -625 (-1.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -650 (-2.2%).

Off the band

the Over 56.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings or TOM 56.5 at -112 (1.3%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 52¢ (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Alabama -14.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F, 91% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Alabama by 1530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-16.0	-570
FPI	-18.0	-739
Sagarin	-18.5	-798
Massey	-16.5	-613
Market (18 books)	-14.0	-591

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.5	61.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Alabama Jaguars -14.5	+101	-103	+0.9%
Moneyline	South Alabama Jaguars ML	-564	-544	priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.5	-112	-118	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 56.8 consensus.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)

CFB 2:30pm

Miami (OH) -12Moved our way · 2.5 pts

should be Miami (OH) -13.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was -14.5

▲A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 12, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 13.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Miami (OH) →

Market

Miami (OH) by 12TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Miami (OH) by 24.512.3 pts our side

FPI

Miami (OH) by 163.9 pts our side

Sagarin

Miami (OH) by 185.8 pts our side

Massey

Miami (OH) by 110.8 pts against us

Nasty Number

Miami (OH) by 13.51.7 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Miami (OH). Massey at Miami (OH) by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 2.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.12.1 pts over the market

Massey

42.9on the market

Nasty Number

441 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points since it opened, from 46 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-12 -110	43 -110	-500	+370
Kalshi	-11.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -107 50¢	-524 83¢	—
Pinnacle	-12.5 -103	43 -108	-528	+407

All 22 books

	Miami (OH) spread	Total (over)	Miami (OH) ML	Bowling Green ML
TOM	-12 -110	43 -110	-500	+370
Kalshi	-11.5 -112 51¢	42.5 -107 50¢	-524 83¢	—
Bally Bet	-12.5 -112	42.5 -118	-715	+480
BetAnything	-12 -110	43 -110	-525	+400
BetMGM	-12 -110	42.5 -120	-525	+400
BetOnline.ag	-12 -110	43 -110	-500	+383
betPARX	-12.5 -112	42.5 -118	-715	+480
BetRivers	-12.5 -112	42.5 -118	-715	+480
BetUS	-12 -110	43 -110	-500	+390
Bovada	-12 -110	43 -110	-550	+390
Courtside	-12.5 -106	43.5 -109	-483	+392
DraftKings	-12.5 -108	42.5 -115	-500	+380
DraftKings Predictions	-12.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics	-12 -110	43 -110	-525	+390
FanDuel	-12.5 -110	43.5 -106	-550	+400
Fliff	-12.5 -115	42.5 -120	-575	+400
Hard Rock Bet	-12.5 -110	42.5 -120	-700	+475
LowVig.ag	-12 -106	43 -108	-500	+383
MyBookie.ag	-12.5 -110	43 -110	-561	+404
Pinnacle	-12.5 -103	43 -108	-528	+407
ReBet	-12.5 -116	43 -114	-625	+430
theScore Bet	-12.5 -110	42.5 -115	-600	+400

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -12.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): Kalshi -11.5 at 51¢ (0.8%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -12 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -108 (0.4%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Miami (OH) to win · -500 at DraftKings

We make it 82 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): DraftKings or TOM -500 (-1.2%) · Kalshi, Fanatics or BetMGM -524 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -550 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-2.8%).

Off the band

the Over 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 42.5 at 50¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM 43 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.9%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -106 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -12.0 · -110 at Fanatics. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 67°F.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Miami (OH). The line went from -11.5 to -12.0.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -12.5. The market has moved 2.1 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $490 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -12.0 here against -12.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMiami (OH) by 13.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.5	-1623
FPI	-16.0	-575
Sagarin	-18.0	-723
Massey	-11.0	-387
Market (19 books)	-12.0	-478

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami (OH) RedHawks -12.0	-110	-113	+0.6%
Moneyline	Miami (OH) RedHawks ML	-500	-461	priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 43.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: spread -12.0 here against -12.4 consensus.

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado State

CFB 5:00pm

Under 62

should be 61 · getting 1 pt · was 58.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 62.0. 16 mph wind, worth about 2.1 off the total. The market's total is 62; if it hasn't come down for the weather by the time you look, the under is the bet. On the side, market says Oregon State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore Colorado State →

Market

Oregon State by 6.5TOM, +100

The Four

SP+

Oregon State by 6.5on the market

FPI

Oregon State by 4.52.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Oregon State by 15.7 pts our side

Massey

Oregon State by 60.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Oregon State by 6.50.2 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this week

Kalshi's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

62TOM, Under -104

The Four

SP+ pace

58.13.9 pts under the market

Massey

59.52.5 pts under the market

Weather

-2.116 mph wind, takes 2.1 points off

Nasty Number

56.75.3 pts under the market

Under 62 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	Oregon State ML
TOM	+6.5 +100	62 -116	+200	-250
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	60.5 -126 54¢	+198 32¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+6.5 +102	62 -112	+215	-252

All 21 books

	Colorado State spread	Total (over)	Colorado State ML	Oregon State ML
TOM	+6.5 +100	62 -116	+200	-250
Kalshi	+6.5 +101 48¢	60.5 -126 54¢	+198 32¢	-229 68¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -107	61.5 -117	+200	-265
BetAnything	+7 -120	62.5 -110	+210	-250
BetMGM	+6.5 -108	62.5 -105	+200	-250
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 +100	62 -116	+207	-250
betPARX	+6.5 -107	61.5 -117	+200	-265
BetRivers	+6.5 -108	62.5 -106	+200	-265
BetUS	+7 -110	62.5 -110	+210	-250
Bovada	+7 -120	62.5 -105	+215	-260
Courtside	+6.5 -102	62.5 -108	+215	-252
DraftKings	+6.5 -102	62.5 -110	+210	-258
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 49¢ -104 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	32¢ +194 all-in	70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics	+7 -115	62.5 -105	+210	-260
FanDuel	+6.5 -105	62.5 -106	+198	-245
Fliff	+6.5 -110	62.5 -115	+200	-260
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	61.5 -115	+200	-260
LowVig.ag	+6.5 +104	62 -115	+207	-250
MyBookie.ag	+7 -110	62.5 -110	+202	-255
Pinnacle	+6.5 +102	62 -112	+215	-252
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	61.5 -120	+200	-240

Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +6.5 · +100 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado State): Kalshi or TOM +6.5 at +101 (0.7%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -102 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +6.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.4%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Colorado State to win · +210 at Fanatics

We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +210 (0.2%) · BetMGM or TOM +200 (-0.9%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +198 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 32¢ on the app (+194 all-in) (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 62.0 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 2.1 off. That's 5.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 62 at -104 (1.7%) · DraftKings 62.5 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 62.5 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel 62.5 at -114 (0.6%) · Fanatics 62.5 at -115 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 62.0 · -104 at TOM. Weather under, only before the market takes the total down.

Weather at kickoff: 16 mph wind, 84°F. Total pulled down 2.1 for it.

Across the books: opened +5.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 1.6 away from Colorado State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: moneyline +209 here against +235 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOregon State by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.5	+209
FPI	+4.5	+176
Sagarin	+1.0	+104
Massey	+6.0	+201
Market (18 books)	+6.5	+209

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	56.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Colorado State Rams +6.5	+100	-102	+0.6%
Moneyline	Colorado State Rams ML	+210	+208	+0.2%
Total	Under 62.0	-104	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.6.

TOM: moneyline +209 here against +235 consensus.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC State

CFB 2:30pm

Over 57.5Moved our way · 3 pts

should be 59.2 · getting 1.6 pts · was 59.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 57.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 7.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 3, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 3.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisville than the bookmore NC State →

Market

Louisville by 3

The Four

SP+

Louisville by 4.51.2 pts our side

FPI

Louisville by 62.7 pts our side

Sagarin

a pick'em3.1 pts against us

Massey

Louisville by 40.9 pts our side

Nasty Number

Louisville by 3.50.2 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Louisville. Sagarin at a pick'em is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Louisville is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

67.49.8 pts over the market

Massey

63.35.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

65.47.8 pts over the market

Over 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 3 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 3 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 3 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Louisville ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	57.5 -107 50¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Pinnacle	+3 +101	57.5 -110	+137	-155

All 22 books

	NC State spread	Total (over)	NC State ML	Louisville ML
Kalshi	+3.5 -126 54¢	57.5 -107 50¢	+140 40¢	-167 61¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -117	58 -107	+143	-175
BetAnything	+3 -105	58 -110	+140	-160
BetMGM	+3 -105	57.5 -112	+135	-160
BetOnline.ag	+3 -105	57.5 -112	+138	-158
betPARX	+3.5 -117	58 -107	+143	-175
BetRivers	+3.5 -118	58 -108	+135	-175
BetUS	+3 -105	57.5 -110	+138	-160
Bovada	+3 +100	57.5 -110	+135	-160
Caesars	+3.5 -117	57.5 -114	+138	-164
Courtside	+3.5 -123	57.5 -113	+143	-163
DraftKings	+3 -102	57.5 -115	+140	-166
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	40¢ +138 all-in	61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	57.5 -115	+135	-160
FanDuel	+3.5 -122	57.5 -115	+130	-156
Fliff	+3.5 -125	57.5 -125	+135	-170
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	57.5 -115	+145	-170
LowVig.ag	+3 -101	57.5 -110	+138	-158
MyBookie.ag	+3 -105	58 -110	+134	-164
Pinnacle	+3 +101	57.5 -110	+137	-155
ReBet	+3 -109	58 -111	+134	-164
theScore Bet	+3.5 -125	58.5 -105	+140	-165

Marked: best for Louisville, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisville -3.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisville): Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM -3 at -112 (-0.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at +100 (48¢ on the app) (-0.9%) · DraftKings -3 at -118 (-1.3%) · Caesars -3.5 at -103 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Louisville to win · -161

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Louisville to win): FanDuel -156 (-0.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -160 (-0.7%) · Caesars -164 (-1.3%) · DraftKings or Kalshi -166 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 63. That's 7.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -112 (1.5%) · Caesars 57.5 at -114 (1.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 57.5 at -115 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.4%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 57.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 44% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 4.4 away from Louisville, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onLouisville by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+4.5	+175
FPI	+6.0	+200
Sagarin	PK	-100
Massey	+4.0	+170
Market (20 books)	+3.0	+149

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	65.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Louisville Cardinals -3.0	-110	-112	+0.4%
Moneyline	Louisville Cardinals ML	-161	-155	-0.9%
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.4 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air Force

CFB 11:00am

Over 46.5

should be 49.3 · getting 2.8 pts · was 49

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 46.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 11.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Air Force →

Market

Air Force by 2.5TOM, -121

The Four

SP+

Air Force by 2.5

FPI

Air Force by 4

Sagarin

Air Force by 3.5

Massey

Navy by 0.5

Nasty Number

Air Force by 30.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Air Force by 3 to Air Force by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM, Over -105

The Four

SP+ pace

58.411.9 pts over the market

Massey

57.310.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

57.911.4 pts over the market

Over 46.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 11.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Air Force spread	Total (over)	Air Force ML	Navy ML
TOM	-2.5 -121	46.5 -105	-139	+119
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Pinnacle	-3 +100	45.5 -114	-142	+126

All 23 books

	Air Force spread	Total (over)	Air Force ML	Navy ML
TOM	-2.5 -121	46.5 -105	-139	+119
Kalshi	-2.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -103 49¢	-143 57¢	+118 44¢
Bally Bet	-3 -109	45.5 -114	-162	+130
BetAnything	-3 -110	46.5 -105	-140	+120
BetMGM	-3 -105	45.5 -110	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -121	46.5 -105	-139	+119
betPARX	-3 -109	45.5 -114	-162	+130
BetRivers	-3 -110	45.5 -114	-162	+130
BetUS	-3 -105	46 -110	-140	+120
Bovada	-3 -105	46 -110	-145	+125
Caesars	-2.5 -127	46.5 -106	-152	+128
Courtside	-3 -103	45.5 -108	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 -105	45.5 -110	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	45.5 50¢ -108 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in	43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	45.5 -110	-145	+120
FanDuel	-3.5 +106	45.5 -108	-154	+128
Fliff	-2.5 -130	45.5 -120	-155	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -125	45.5 -115	-160	+130
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -117	46.5 -103	-139	+119
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	46 -110	-155	+127
Pinnacle	-3 +100	45.5 -114	-142	+126
ReBet	-3 -109	45.5 -114	-151	+123
theScore Bet	-3.5 +110	45.5 -105	-150	+130

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force -2.5 · -121 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Air Force): TOM or Kalshi -2.5 at -121 (-1.5%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -3 at -105 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -3.5 at +106 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -2.5 at -127 (54¢ on the app) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Air Force to win · -139 at TOM

We make it 58 in 100 to win. The price says 58. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 58 cents fair, a play under 53. Where, best first (Air Force to win): TOM -139 (-0.2%) · Kalshi 57¢ (-0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -145 (-1.2%) · DraftKings -148 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-2.0%).

Not Nasty

the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. That's 11.4 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 45.5 at 49¢ (8.8%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (7.6%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (7.1%) · TOM 46.5 at -105 (5.8%) · Caesars 46.5 at -106 (5.6%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 46.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Air Force).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -3.0 consensus.

TOM: total 46.5 here against 45.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAir Force by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-2.5	-121
FPI	-4.0	-169
Sagarin	-3.5	-158
Massey	+0.5	+102
Market (20 books)	-2.5	-133

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	57.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Air Force Falcons -2.5	-121	-114	-1.5%
Moneyline	Air Force Falcons ML	-139	-138	-0.2%
Total	Over 46.5	-105	-133	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -3.0 consensus; total 46.5 here against 45.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLV

CFB 2:30pm

Under 53.5

should be 52.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 54.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 53.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore UNLV →

Market

UNLV by 2.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

UNLV by 3

FPI

UNLV by 1.5

Sagarin

California by 3

Massey

UNLV by 1.5

Nasty Number

UNLV by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UNLV by 3 to UNLV by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM, Under -112

The Four

SP+ pace

50.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

49.63.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

50.33.2 pts under the market

Under 53.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	California ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	53.5 -108	-130	+110
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	53 -107	-126	+112

All 23 books

	UNLV spread	Total (over)	UNLV ML	California ML
TOM	-2.5 -110	53.5 -108	-130	+110
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	53.5 -103 49¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2 -107	53.5 -108	-124	+100
BetAnything	-2 -110	53 -110	-130	+110
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	53.5 -108	-130	+105
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -110	53.5 -108	-130	+110
betPARX	-2 -107	53.5 -108	-124	+100
BetRivers	-1.5 -115	53.5 -109	-124	+100
BetUS	-1.5 -110	53 -110	-125	+105
Bovada	-2.5 -110	53 -110	-130	+110
Caesars	-2.5 -109	53.5 -107	-130	+111
Courtside	-2.5 -110	53.5 -109	-127	+112
DraftKings	-2.5 -110	52.5 -115	-130	+110
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	54.5 47¢ +104 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	53 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	52.5 -118	-126	+105
Fliff	-2.5 -115	53.5 -115	-130	+105
Hard Rock Bet	-1.5 -115	53.5 -110	-125	+100
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -103	53.5 -106	-130	+110
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	53 -110	-132	+108
Pinnacle	-2.5 -104	53 -107	-126	+112
ReBet	-2 -116	53 -114	-132	+108
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	52.5 -115	-130	+110

Marked: best for the UNLV side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +2.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (California): Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-2.4%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 52¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

California to win · +110 at Fanatics

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (California to win): Caesars +111 (-1.3%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or TOM +110 (-1.5%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.0%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +105 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (0.7%) · TOM 53.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -104 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.5 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 2.9 toward UNLV).

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUNLV by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-3.0	-139
FPI	-1.5	-110
Sagarin	+3.0	+143
Massey	-1.5	-111
Market (20 books)	-2.5	-124

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	California Golden Bears +2.5	-110	-103	-1.5%
Moneyline	California Golden Bears ML	+110	+117	-1.5%
Total	Under 53.5	-112	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.9 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: total 53.5 here against 53.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&M

CFB 6:00pm

Over 50

should be 51.4 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 50.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Texas A&M →

Market

Texas A&M by 14TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

Texas A&M by 11.5

FPI

Texas A&M by 15

Sagarin

Texas A&M by 16.5

Massey

Texas A&M by 12

Nasty Number

Texas A&M by 140.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

57.57.5 pts over the market

Massey

54.84.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

56.26.2 pts over the market

Over 50 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-14 -109	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14 -101	50 -110	-590	+446

All 22 books

	Texas A&M spread	Total (over)	Texas A&M ML	Arkansas ML
TOM	-14 -109	50 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-13.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -107 50¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-14 -110	51 -108	-670	+450
BetAnything	-14 -110	50.5 -110	-650	+450
BetMGM	-14 -108	50.5 -105	-625	+475
BetOnline.ag	-14 -109	50 -110	-615	+455
betPARX	-14 -110	51 -108	-670	+450
BetRivers	-14 -112	51 -109	-670	+450
BetUS	-14 -110	50 -110	-615	+460
Bovada	-14 -105	50 -110	-625	+430
Caesars	-13.5 -117	50.5 -107	-675	+475
Courtside	-14 -106	50.5 -106	-600	+471
DraftKings	-14 -108	50.5 -108	-625	+455
DraftKings Predictions	-13.5 53¢ -122 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	17¢ +426 all-in
Fanatics	-14 -110	50 -110	-600	+440
FanDuel	-13.5 -122	50.5 -106	-690	+480
Fliff	-13.5 -125	50.5 -115	-680	+460
Hard Rock Bet	-13.5 -120	50.5 -115	-650	+450
LowVig.ag	-14 -105	50 -108	-615	+455
MyBookie.ag	-14 -110	50.5 -110	-649	+450
Pinnacle	-14 -101	50 -110	-590	+446
theScore Bet	-13.5 -115	49.5 -115	-750	+475

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +14.0 · -111 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): Kalshi or FanDuel +13.5 at +101 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +14 at -110 (-1.7%) · TOM +14 at -111 (-1.9%) · DraftKings +14 at -112 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Arkansas to win · +455 (17¢) at Kalshi

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): FanDuel, Caesars or BetMGM +480 (0.3%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +456 (-0.4%) · Fanatics +440 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 17¢ on the app (+426 all-in) (-1.4%).

Off the band

the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. That's 6.2 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or TOM 50 at -110 (1.3%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (1.2%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (0.9%) · Caesars or Kalshi 50.5 at -107 (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 2.1 toward Arkansas). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onTexas A&M by 1421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-11.5	-393
FPI	-15.0	-547
Sagarin	-16.5	-618
Massey	-12.0	-403
Market (19 books)	-14.0	-555

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	56.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Arkansas Razorbacks +14.0	-111	-103	-1.9%
Moneyline	Arkansas Razorbacks ML	+455	+469	priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.1 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana Tech

CFB 6:30pm

Over 47

should be 48.6 · getting 1.6 pts

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Army by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →

Market

Army by 1.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

Army by 7

FPI

Army by 2

Sagarin

Louisiana Tech by 0.5

Massey

Army by 4.5

Nasty Number

Army by 20.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM, Over -110

The Four

SP+ pace

52.75.7 pts over the market

Massey

50.83.8 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.84.8 pts over the market

Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Army ML
TOM	+1.5 -113	47 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Pinnacle	+1.5 -110	47.5 -102	+101	-113

All 21 books

	Louisiana Tech spread	Total (over)	Louisiana Tech ML	Army ML
TOM	+1.5 -113	47 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	46.5 -112 51¢	+105 47¢	-126 54¢
Bally Bet	+2 -112	47.5 -110	+105	-129
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	46.5 -110	+105	-125
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	47.5 -105	+100	-120
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -113	47 -110	+100	-120
betPARX	+2 -112	47.5 -110	+105	-129
BetRivers	+2 -113	47.5 -112	+105	-129
BetUS	+1.5 -110	47 -110	+100	-120
Bovada	+1 -110	47 -110	-105	-115
Courtside	+1.5 -110	46.5 -113	+104	-120
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	46.5 -115	+102	-122
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	47 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -108	47.5 -106	+105	-126
Fliff	+1.5 -115	46.5 -130	+100	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -105	47.5 -110	+105	-130
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -109	47 -108	+100	-120
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	47 -110	+102	-125
Pinnacle	+1.5 -110	47.5 -102	+101	-113
theScore Bet	+1.5 +100	47.5 -105	+110	-130

Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army -1.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Army): TOM or Kalshi -1.5 at -107 (-0.5%) · BetMGM -1.5 at -108 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Army to win · -120 at Fanatics

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Army to win): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -120 (-0.7%) · DraftKings -122 (-1.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -126 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. That's 4.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (2.0%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -115 (1.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (1.9%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.7%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Louisiana Tech). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onArmy by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.0	+230
FPI	+2.0	+118
Sagarin	-0.5	-100
Massey	+4.5	+176
Market (18 books)	+1.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	51.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Army Black Knights -1.5	-107	-105	-0.5%
Moneyline	Army Black Knights ML	-120	-117	-0.7%
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-119	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Louisiana Tech Bulldogs since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.3 consensus; moneyline +125 here against +110 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa State

CFB 11:00am

Iowa State -2.5

should be Iowa State -3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +0.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more West Virginia than the bookmore Iowa State →

Market

Iowa State by 3TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

Iowa State by 41.2 pts our side

FPI

Iowa State by 3.50.7 pts our side

Sagarin

Iowa State by 4.51.3 pts our side

Massey

Iowa State by 129 pts our side

Nasty Number

Iowa State by 3.50.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Iowa State. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Iowa State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.20.8 pts under the market

Massey

53.60.6 pts over the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

52.20.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Iowa State spread	Total (over)	Iowa State ML	West Virginia ML
TOM	-3 -116	53 -116	-155	+130
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	53.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 -112	53 -110	-154	+136

All 23 books

	Iowa State spread	Total (over)	Iowa State ML	West Virginia ML
TOM	-3 -116	53 -116	-155	+130
Kalshi	-3.5 +105 47¢	53.5 -107 50¢	-155 59¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -115	53.5 -115	-175	+135
BetAnything	-3 -110	53 -110	-155	+135
BetMGM	-3 -115	53.5 -110	-155	+130
BetOnline.ag	-3 -116	53 -116	-155	+135
betPARX	-3 -115	53.5 -115	-175	+135
BetRivers	-3 -117	53.5 -117	-175	+135
BetUS	-3 -110	53.5 -110	-155	+134
Bovada	-3 -115	53 -110	-160	+135
Caesars	-3.5 +101	53 -112	-154	+131
Courtside	-3 -113	53.5 -106	-152	+133
DraftKings	-3 -115	53.5 -108	-155	+130
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 48¢ -100 all-in	54.5 48¢ -100 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -115	53.5 -110	-160	+135
FanDuel	-2.5 -122	52.5 -118	-152	+126
Fliff	-3.5 -105	53.5 -115	-165	+130
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 +100	53.5 -115	-170	+135
LowVig.ag	-3 -112	53 -115	-155	+135
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	53 -110	-165	+134
Pinnacle	-3 -112	53 -110	-154	+136
ReBet	-3 -114	53.5 -111	-159	+129
theScore Bet	-3.5 +105	53.5 -115	-155	+135

Marked: best for Iowa State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): FanDuel -2.5 at -122 (1.3%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 47¢ (0.5%) · Caesars -3.5 at +101 (-0.6%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM -3 at -115 (-0.6%) · TOM -3 at -116 (-0.8%).

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · -155 at Caesars

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): FanDuel -152 (0.6%) · Caesars, Kalshi, DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -154 (0.3%) · Fanatics -160 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 60¢ on the app (-163 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 53.0 · -104 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · TOM 53 at -104 (-0.6%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Caesars 53 at -108 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State -2.5 · -122 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 58°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.5 toward Iowa State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onIowa State by 3.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-4.0	-173
FPI	-3.5	-164
Sagarin	-4.5	-176
Massey	-12.0	-408
Market (20 books)	-3.0	-148

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.0	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones -2.5	-122	-128	+1.3%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	-155	-156	+0.1%
Total	Under 53.0	-104	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConn

CFB 11:00am

UConn +6.5

should be UConn +6 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

▼Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore UConn →

Market

Syracuse by 6.5TOM, -104

The Four

SP+

Syracuse by 0.5

FPI

Syracuse by 5.5

Sagarin

Syracuse by 5.5

Massey

Syracuse by 2

Nasty Number

Syracuse by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Syracuse by 5.5 to Syracuse by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.61.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.64.1 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 52 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	+6.5 -104	50.5 -110	+210	-260
Kalshi	+6.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -112 51¢	+208 31¢	-239 69¢
Pinnacle	+7 -116	51 -101	+218	-256

All 22 books

	UConn spread	Total (over)	UConn ML	Syracuse ML
TOM	+6.5 -104	50.5 -110	+210	-260
Kalshi	+6.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -112 51¢	+208 31¢	-239 69¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -106	50.5 -109	+215	-278
BetAnything	+7 -120	50.5 -110	+220	-265
BetMGM	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	+210	-250
BetOnline.ag	+6.5 -104	50.5 -110	+215	-260
betPARX	+6.5 -106	50.5 -109	+215	-278
BetRivers	+6.5 -107	50.5 -109	+215	-278
BetUS	+6.5 -104	50.5 -110	+218	-260
Bovada	+6.5 +100	50.5 -110	+215	-260
Courtside	+6.5 -105	50.5 -106	+220	-258
DraftKings	+6.5 -105	50.5 -108	+215	-265
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 47¢ +104 all-in	31¢ +203 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	+210	-260
FanDuel	+6.5 -104	50.5 -110	+198	-245
Fliff	+6.5 -110	50.5 -115	+205	-270
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -105	50.5 -110	+220	-275
LowVig.ag	+6.5 +100	50.5 -108	+215	-260
MyBookie.ag	+7 -115	50.5 -110	+212	-270
Pinnacle	+7 -116	51 -101	+218	-256
ReBet	+6.5 -109	51 -111	+208	-265
theScore Bet	+6.5 -105	50.5 -105	+210	-250

Marked: best for the UConn side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +6.5 · -104 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UConn): Kalshi +6.5 at 49¢ (0.0%) · FanDuel, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.2%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +6.5 at -105 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

UConn to win · +210 at Fanatics

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (UConn to win): DraftKings +215 (0.9%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, TOM or Kalshi +210 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 31¢ on the app (+203 all-in) (-0.3%) · FanDuel +198 (-0.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.3%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 50.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · UConn, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +7.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward UConn). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSyracuse by 621% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+0.5	-100
FPI	+5.5	+193
Sagarin	+5.5	+196
Massey	+2.0	+118
Market (19 books)	+6.5	+219

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	UConn Huskies ML	+210	+206	+0.4%
Spread	UConn Huskies +6.5	-104	-103	-0.2%
Total	Over 50.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread +6.5 here against +6.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 50.8 consensus.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi State

CFB 11:00am

Alabama -5.5

should be Alabama -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Mississippi State →

Market

Alabama by 5.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

Alabama by 5.5

FPI

Alabama by 8

Sagarin

Alabama by 3.5

Massey

Alabama by 9.5

Nasty Number

Alabama by 60.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Alabama by 6 to Alabama by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

643.5 pts over the market

Massey

62.41.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

63.22.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Alabama ML
TOM	+5.5 -112	60.5 -117	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	61.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	61.5 -111	+180	-208

All 23 books

	Mississippi State spread	Total (over)	Mississippi State ML	Alabama ML
TOM	+5.5 -112	60.5 -117	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -112 51¢	61.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -113	60.5 -113	+175	-220
BetAnything	+6 -110	61 -110	+185	-225
BetMGM	+5 -110	61.5 -108	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+5.5 -112	60.5 -117	+189	-225
betPARX	+5.5 -113	60.5 -113	+175	-220
BetRivers	+5.5 -114	60.5 -114	+175	-220
BetUS	+6 -110	61 -110	+185	-220
Bovada	+5.5 -115	61.5 -115	+175	-210
Caesars	+5.5 -107	60.5 -115	+181	-218
Courtside	+5.5 -112	61.5 -106	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -112	61.5 -108	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 51¢ -113 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -107	61.5 -110	+180	-220
FanDuel	+5.5 -115	61.5 -106	+164	-200
Fliff	+4.5 -105	61.5 -115	+170	-220
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	60.5 -110	+175	-220
LowVig.ag	+5.5 -108	60.5 -116	+189	-225
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	61 -110	+175	-218
Pinnacle	+5.5 -109	61.5 -111	+180	-208
ReBet	+5.5 -114	61 -116	+175	-218
theScore Bet	+5.5 -115	61.5 -110	+170	-200

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -5.5 · -108 at DraftKings

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): FanDuel -5.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or TOM -5.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · Kalshi or Fanatics -5.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars -5.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-1.9%) · BetMGM -5 at -118 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · -200 at FanDuel

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 67. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Alabama to win): FanDuel -200 (0.1%) · BetMGM -210 (-1.0%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars -218 (-1.8%) · Fanatics -220 (-2.0%) · TOM -225 (-2.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 60.5 · -117 at TOM

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 60.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · TOM 60.5 at -117 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 61.5 at -106 (-0.6%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 61.5 at -107 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 61.5 at -110 (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 2.0 toward Alabama).

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onAlabama by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.5	+197
FPI	+8.0	+293
Sagarin	+3.5	+163
Massey	+9.5	+325
Market (20 books)	+5.5	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	63.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	-200	-201	+0.1%
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide -5.5	-108	-104	-0.9%
Total	Over 60.5	-117	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 16:18; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 61.3 consensus.

Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central Michigan

CFB 2:30pm

Akron +7

should be Akron +6.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 7, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Central Michigan →

Market

Central Michigan by 7TOM, -111

The Four

SP+

Central Michigan by 6.50.4 pts our side

FPI

Central Michigan by 61.1 pts our side

Sagarin

Central Michigan by 81.2 pts against us

Massey

Central Michigan by 7on the market

Nasty Number

Central Michigan by 6.50.4 pts off the market

3 of 4 systems lean Akron. Sagarin at Central Michigan by 8 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Akron's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

41.25.8 pts under the market

Massey

46.50.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.93.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Akron ML
TOM	-7 -111	47 -110	-265	+205
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+208 31¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -116	47 -111	-256	+218

All 22 books

	Central Michigan spread	Total (over)	Central Michigan ML	Akron ML
TOM	-7 -111	47 -110	-265	+205
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	47.5 -107 50¢	-239 69¢	+208 31¢
Bally Bet	-7 -109	47.5 -108	-286	+225
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	47 -110	-240	+200
BetMGM	-7 -108	47.5 -105	-250	+210
BetOnline.ag	-7 -111	47 -110	-265	+219
betPARX	-7 -109	47.5 -108	-286	+225
BetRivers	-7 -110	47.5 -109	-295	+225
BetUS	-6.5 -115	47 -110	-240	+203
Bovada	-7 +100	47 -115	-260	+215
Courtside	-6.5 -118	47.5 -103	-252	+215
DraftKings	-6.5 -118	47.5 -105	-258	+210
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-7 -105	47 -110	-260	+210
FanDuel	-6.5 -115	47.5 -106	-245	+198
Fliff	-6.5 -125	47.5 -110	-270	+205
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -125	47.5 -110	-275	+225
LowVig.ag	-7 -107	47 -108	-265	+219
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -115	47 -110	-256	+204
Pinnacle	-6.5 -116	47 -111	-256	+218
ReBet	-7 -109	47 -114	-280	+220
theScore Bet	-6.5 -115	47.5 -105	-240	+200

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +7.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Akron): TOM +7 at -109 (0.4%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 48¢ (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.8%) · Fanatics +7 at -115 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -102 (-1.2%).

Not Nasty

Akron to win · +205 at TOM

We make it 31 in 100 to win. The price says 33. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 31 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Akron to win): DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (-0.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or Kalshi +210 (-0.9%) · TOM +205 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +198 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi or BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.9%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · Fanatics or TOM 47 at -110 (-1.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -6.5. The market has moved 1.1 away from Akron, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCentral Michigan by 6.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-6.5	-219
FPI	-6.0	-201
Sagarin	-8.0	-294
Massey	-7.0	-230
Market (19 books)	-7.0	-254

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	43.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Akron Zips +7.0	-109	-111	+0.4%
Moneyline	Akron Zips ML	+205	+219	-1.5%
Total	Under 47.0	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Central Michigan Chippewas since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -6.6 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at Charlotte

CFB 10:00am

Over 52

should be 53.5 · getting 1.4 pts · was 54

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Charlotte →

Market

Memphis by 20

The Four

SP+

Memphis by 27.5

FPI

Memphis by 16.5

Sagarin

Memphis by 15.5

Massey

Memphis by 18.5

Nasty Number

Memphis by 19.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

60.48.3 pts over the market

Massey

57.45.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

58.96.8 pts over the market

Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Memphis ML
Kalshi	+20.5	52.5 -103 49¢	+944 9¢	-1236 92¢
Pinnacle	+20 +101	52 -110	+824	-1297

All 21 books

	Charlotte spread	Total (over)	Charlotte ML	Memphis ML
Kalshi	+20.5	52.5 -103 49¢	+944 9¢	-1236 92¢
Bally Bet	+20.5 -110	52.5 -108	+1100	—
BetAnything	+20.5 -110	52 -110	+865	-1500
BetMGM	+20.5 -110	52.5 -105	+900	-1400
BetOnline.ag	+20.5 -110	52 -110	+836	-1400
betPARX	+20.5 -110	52.5 -108	+1100	—
BetRivers	+20.5 -110	52.5 -109	+1100	—
BetUS	+20.5 -110	52 -110	+825	-1400
Bovada	+20.5 -110	52 -110	+750	-1400
Courtside	+20.5 -108	52.5 -106	+897	-1339
DraftKings	+20.5 -110	52.5 -108	+850	-1450
DraftKings Predictions	+20.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 53¢ -122 all-in	9¢ +809 all-in	92¢ -1567 all-in
Fanatics	+20.5 -110	52.5 -105	+850	-1400
FanDuel	+20.5 -110	52.5 -106	+890	-1700
Fliff	+20.5 -115	52.5 -115	+900	-1910
Hard Rock Bet	+20.5 -110	52.5 -110	+1100	-3000
LowVig.ag	+20.5 -106	52 -108	+836	-1400
MyBookie.ag	+20.5 -110	52 -110	+750	-1408
Pinnacle	+20 +101	52 -110	+824	-1297
ReBet	+20.5 -109	52 -116	+750	-1408
theScore Bet	+20.5 -105	51.5 -120	+900	-1800

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +20.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +20.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.4%).

Blowout line

Charlotte to win · +890 at BetMGM

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): Kalshi 9¢ (0.8%) · BetMGM or FanDuel +900 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +850 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 9¢ on the app (+809 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 52.0 · -110

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (1.9%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (1.4%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (1.2%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -108 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 78°F, 31% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Charlotte 49ers +20.5, only $11 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMemphis by 19.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+27.5	+2279
FPI	+16.5	+592
Sagarin	+15.5	+566
Massey	+18.5	+786
Market (19 books)	+20.0	+1259

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	58.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Charlotte 49ers +20.0	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Charlotte 49ers ML	+890	+867	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 52.0	-110	-117	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMU

CFB 11:00am

Under 55.5

should be 54.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 57.5

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.5.

The spread

← more Boston College than the bookmore SMU →

Market

SMU by 21.5TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

SMU by 20

FPI

SMU by 16

Sagarin

SMU by 19

Massey

SMU by 15.5

Nasty Number

SMU by 201.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from SMU by 21 to SMU by 21.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

55.5TOM, Under -115

The Four

SP+ pace

51.34.2 pts under the market

Massey

52.43.1 pts under the market

Weather

-1.050% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

50.94.6 pts under the market

Under 55.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	Boston College ML
TOM	-21.5 -109	55.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-21.5 -107 50¢	55.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Pinnacle	-21 -115	55.5 -104	-1515	+924

All 22 books

	SMU spread	Total (over)	SMU ML	Boston College ML
TOM	-21.5 -109	55.5 -105	—	—
Kalshi	-21.5 -107 50¢	55.5 -107 50¢	-1429 93¢	+1074 8¢
Bally Bet	-21 -114	55.5 -108	-2000	+900
BetAnything	-21.5 -110	55 -110	-2100	+1050
BetMGM	-21.5 -108	55.5 -105	-2000	+1100
BetOnline.ag	-21.5 -109	55.5 -105	-2000	+1041
betPARX	-21 -114	55.5 -108	-2000	+900
BetRivers	-21 -114	55.5 -108	-2000	+850
BetUS	-21.5 -110	55 -110	-2000	+1050
Bovada	-21.5 -105	55 -115	-1600	+800
Courtside	-21.5 -103	55.5 -103	-1635	+1064
DraftKings	-21.5 -105	55.5 -105	-1800	+1000
DraftKings Predictions	-21.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 46¢ +108 all-in	94¢ -2401 all-in	8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics	-21.5 -105	55.5 -105	-1800	+1050
FanDuel	-21.5 -112	55.5 -106	-2500	+1100
Fliff	-21.5 -110	55.5 -110	-2285	+985
Hard Rock Bet	-21.5 -105	55.5 -110	-2000	+900
LowVig.ag	-21.5 -105	55.5 -103	-2000	+1041
MyBookie.ag	-21.5 -110	55 -110	-2549	+998
Pinnacle	-21 -115	55.5 -104	-1515	+924
ReBet	-22 -116	55 -116	-1587	+810
theScore Bet	-21.5 -110	55.5 -105	-2500	+1100

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +21.5 · -111 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Boston College): FanDuel +21.5 at -108 (3.4%) · BetMGM +21.5 at -110 (2.9%) · TOM or Kalshi +21.5 at -111 (2.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +21.5 at -115 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +21.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Boston College to win · +1041 at Fanatics

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): FanDuel, BetMGM or Kalshi +1100 (1.6%) · Fanatics +1050 (1.3%) · DraftKings +1000 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 8¢ on the app (+900 all-in) (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.6 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (1.6%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (0.9%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (0.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 55.5 at -115 (0.1%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onSMU by 2030% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-20.0	-878
FPI	-16.0	-581
Sagarin	-19.0	-822
Massey	-15.5	-564
Market (19 books)	-21.5	-1458

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.5	50.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boston College Eagles +21.5	-111	-124	+2.7%
Moneyline	Boston College Eagles ML	+1041	+902	priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 55.5	-115	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread -21.5 here against -21.2 consensus.

The line is -21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at Kansas

CFB 11:00am

Kansas -21

should be Kansas -20.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 21.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Kansas →

Market

Kansas by 21TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Kansas by 19

FPI

Kansas by 15.5

Sagarin

Kansas by 25

Massey

Kansas by 21.5

Nasty Number

Kansas by 20.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Kansas by 18.5 to Kansas by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

510.5 pts over the market

Massey

52.21.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Middle Tennessee ML
TOM	-21 -110	50.5 -116	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	+944 9¢
Pinnacle	-20.5 -110	50 -117	-1376	+861

All 22 books

	Kansas spread	Total (over)	Kansas ML	Middle Tennessee ML
TOM	-21 -110	50.5 -116	—	—
Kalshi	-20.5 -112 51¢	50.5 -112 51¢	-1087 91¢	+944 9¢
Bally Bet	-20.5 -110	50.5 -106	—	+1200
BetAnything	-21 -110	50.5 -110	-1500	+865
BetMGM	-20.5 -110	50.5 -112	-1400	+950
BetOnline.ag	-21 -110	50.5 -116	-1500	+874
betPARX	-20.5 -110	50.5 -106	—	+1200
BetRivers	-20.5 -112	50.5 -106	—	+1200
BetUS	-20.5 -110	50.5 -115	-1500	+850
Bovada	-20.5 -115	50.5 -110	-1500	+775
Courtside	-20.5 -110	50.5 -116	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-20.5 -112	50.5 -118	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	-20.5 52¢ -117 all-in	51.5 49¢ -104 all-in	92¢ -1567 all-in	9¢ +809 all-in
Fanatics	-20.5 -115	50.5 -115	-1400	+850
FanDuel	-20.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1450	+810
Fliff	-20.5 -120	50.5 -120	-1950	+910
Hard Rock Bet	-20.5 -110	50.5 -105	-2500	+1000
LowVig.ag	-21 -106	50.5 -115	-1500	+874
MyBookie.ag	-20.5 -110	51 -110	-1683	+882
Pinnacle	-20.5 -110	50 -117	-1376	+861
ReBet	-21 -114	51 -111	-1493	+800
theScore Bet	-20.5 -110	50.5 -110	-1800	+900

Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Middle Tennessee +21.0 · -110 at TOM

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): TOM +21 at -110 (0.5%) · Fanatics +20.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +20.5 at -107 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.6%) · FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-2.0%).

Blowout line

Middle Tennessee to win · +882

We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win): BetMGM or Kalshi +950 (0.3%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +850 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +810 (9¢ on the app) (-1.1%).

Off the band

the Over 50.5 · -116 at TOM

SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · Fanatics 50.5 at -115 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.4%) · TOM 50.5 at -116 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened -19.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Kansas).

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onKansas by 20.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.0	-836
FPI	-15.5	-567
Sagarin	-25.0	-1761
Massey	-21.5	-1169
Market (19 books)	-21.0	-1322

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	51.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +21.0	-110	-112	+0.5%
Moneyline	Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML	+882	+915	priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 50.5	-116	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Kansas Jayhawks since 09-27 22:42.

TOM: spread -21.0 here against -20.6 consensus.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at Minnesota

CFB 11:00am

Michigan -6

should be Michigan -6 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Michigan than the bookmore Minnesota →

Market

Michigan by 6TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

Michigan by 5.5

FPI

Michigan by 9.5

Sagarin

Michigan by 2

Massey

Michigan by 7.5

Nasty Number

Michigan by 60.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Michigan by 5.5 to Michigan by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

38.94.1 pts under the market

Massey

45.32.3 pts over the market

Weather

-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off

Nasty Number

40.32.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Michigan ML
TOM	+6 -107	43 -110	+175	-225
Kalshi	+6.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -103 49¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+6 -102	43 -110	+198	-230

All 23 books

	Minnesota spread	Total (over)	Minnesota ML	Michigan ML
TOM	+6 -107	43 -110	+175	-225
Kalshi	+6.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -103 49¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Bally Bet	+6.5 -114	43.5 -110	+195	-240
BetAnything	+6 -105	43 -110	+195	-235
BetMGM	+6 -112	43.5 -108	+190	-235
BetOnline.ag	+6 -107	43 -110	+189	-225
betPARX	+6.5 -114	43.5 -110	+195	-240
BetRivers	+6.5 -114	43.5 -112	+190	-245
BetUS	+6 -110	43 -105	+190	-225
Bovada	+6 -105	43 -110	+195	-235
Caesars	+6.5 -117	43 -112	+184	-225
Courtside	+6.5 -112	43.5 -103	+199	-232
DraftKings	+6.5 -112	43.5 -105	+195	-238
DraftKings Predictions	+6.5 50¢ -108 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	32¢ +194 all-in	69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics	+6 -110	43.5 -105	+190	-235
FanDuel	+6.5 -115	43.5 -108	+184	-225
Fliff	+5.5 -105	43.5 -115	+185	-240
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -115	43.5 -110	+195	-240
LowVig.ag	+6 -103	43 -108	+189	-225
MyBookie.ag	+6 -110	43 -110	+212	-270
Pinnacle	+6 -102	43 -110	+198	-230
ReBet	+6.5 -111	43.5 -111	+212	-270
theScore Bet	+5.5 -105	43.5 -105	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -6.0 · -113 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): Caesars -6.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · TOM -6 at -113 (-2.5%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -108 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Michigan to win · -225 at FanDuel

We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Michigan to win): FanDuel, Caesars or TOM -225 (-1.8%) · Kalshi 68¢ (-2.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -235 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -238 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 69¢ on the app (-245 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -112 (-0.0%) · Caesars 43 at -108 (-0.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Kalshi 43.5 at -115 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-0.7%) · TOM 43 at -110 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 58°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +216 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onMichigan by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.5	+195
FPI	+9.5	+310
Sagarin	+2.0	+117
Massey	+7.5	+273
Market (20 books)	+6.0	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	40.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan Wolverines -6.0	-113	-102	-2.5%
Moneyline	Michigan Wolverines ML	-225	-207	-1.8%
Total	Under 43.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +216 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina

CFB 11:00am

Notre Dame -21

should be Notre Dame -21 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →

Market

Notre Dame by 21TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Notre Dame by 23

FPI

Notre Dame by 20.5

Sagarin

Notre Dame by 16.5

Massey

Notre Dame by 22

Nasty Number

Notre Dame by 210 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

45.11.4 pts under the market

Massey

47.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

46.10.4 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47 to 46.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
TOM	+21 -110	46.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	45.5	+1242 7¢	-1684 94¢
Pinnacle	+21 -106	46.5 -111	+933	-1534

All 23 books

	North Carolina spread	Total (over)	North Carolina ML	Notre Dame ML
TOM	+21 -110	46.5 -112	—	—
Kalshi	—	45.5	+1242 7¢	-1684 94¢
Bally Bet	+21 -109	47 -107	+1300	—
BetAnything	+21 -110	46.5 -110	+1050	-1950
BetMGM	+21 -105	46.5 -110	+1050	-1600
BetOnline.ag	+21 -110	46.5 -112	+979	-1800
betPARX	+21 -109	47 -107	+1300	—
BetRivers	+21 -110	47 -108	+1200	—
BetUS	+21 -110	46.5 -110	+1000	-1800
Bovada	+21 -110	46.5 -115	+850	-1800
Caesars	+21.5 -120	46.5 -110	+1000	-2000
Courtside	+21 -106	46.5 -108	+1008	-1509
DraftKings	+21 -108	46.5 -110	+950	-1650
DraftKings Predictions	+21.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 54¢ -127 all-in	8¢ +900 all-in	94¢ -2401 all-in
Fanatics	+21 -110	46.5 -115	+1050	-1800
FanDuel	+21.5 -122	46.5 -114	+1000	-2100
Fliff	+21.5 -125	46.5 -120	+1005	-2385
Hard Rock Bet	+20.5 +100	46.5 -115	+1300	-3000
LowVig.ag	+21 -106	46.5 -110	+979	-1800
MyBookie.ag	+21 -110	46.5 -110	+979	-2019
Pinnacle	+21 -106	46.5 -111	+933	-1534
ReBet	+21 -111	46.5 -114	+880	-1786
theScore Bet	+20.5 +100	46.5 -115	+900	-1800

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Notre Dame -21.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Notre Dame): FanDuel -21.5 at +100 (-2.2%) · Fanatics or TOM -21 at -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars -21.5 at -102 (-2.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -21 at -112 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -21.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Notre Dame to win · -1800 at Fanatics

We make it 91 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Notre Dame to win): BetMGM or DraftKings -1600 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 94¢ (-3.1%) · Fanatics -1800 (-3.4%) · Caesars -2000 (-3.9%) · FanDuel -2100 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 46.5 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 45.5 at 47¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics 46.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -106 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-1.3%) · BetMGM or TOM 46.5 at -108 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 77°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $30 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onNotre Dame by 2130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1319
FPI	+20.5	+921
Sagarin	+16.5	+609
Massey	+22.0	+1198
Market (20 books)	+21.0	+1493

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.5	46.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21.0	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Notre Dame Fighting Irish ML	-1800	-1050	priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.5	-108	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.0.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake Forest

CFB 11:00am

Wake Forest -14.5

should be Wake Forest -14.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Wake Forest →

Market

Wake Forest by 14.5

The Four

SP+

Wake Forest by 14.5

FPI

Wake Forest by 14

Sagarin

Wake Forest by 13.5

Massey

Wake Forest by 10.5

Nasty Number

Wake Forest by 14.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Wake Forest by 13 to Wake Forest by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

54on the market

Massey

55.51.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.80.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Stanford ML
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-14.5 -107	54 -110	-669	+494

All 21 books

	Wake Forest spread	Total (over)	Wake Forest ML	Stanford ML
Kalshi	-14.5 -103 49¢	54.5 -103 49¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-14.5 -112	53.5 -112	-715	+480
BetAnything	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-700	+500
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	54.5 -108	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-15 -110	53.5 -115	-625	+461
betPARX	-14.5 -112	53.5 -112	-715	+480
BetRivers	-14.5 -113	53.5 -113	-715	+475
BetUS	-15 -110	53.5 -115	-625	+465
Bovada	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-700	+475
Courtside	-14.5 -110	54.5 -109	-623	+487
DraftKings	-14.5 -112	53.5 -115	-650	+470
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 49¢ -104 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	16¢ +456 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	54 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-13.5 -132	54.5 -112	-690	+480
Fliff	-14.5 -120	53.5 -125	-715	+475
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -110	53.5 -110	-700	+475
LowVig.ag	-15 -106	53.5 -114	-625	+461
MyBookie.ag	-15 -110	53.5 -110	-699	+470
Pinnacle	-14.5 -107	54 -110	-669	+494
ReBet	-14 -114	53.5 -116	-625	+430
theScore Bet	-14.5 -115	55.5 +100	-800	+500

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Stanford +14.5 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Stanford): DraftKings, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.3%) · FanDuel +13.5 at +108 (-1.4%) · Fanatics +14.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi +14.5 at 52¢ (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Stanford to win · +475 at FanDuel

We make it 16 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Stanford to win): BetMGM +500 (-0.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +480 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +470 (-1.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings Predictions +456 (16¢ on the app) (-1.6%).

Off the band

the Over 54.0 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 54.5 at 49¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.8%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.9%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 74°F, 27% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Wake Forest). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onWake Forest by 14.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-14.5	-509
FPI	-14.0	-476
Sagarin	-13.5	-440
Massey	-10.5	-367
Market (19 books)	-14.5	-604

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	54.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Stanford Cardinal +14.5	-110	-103	-1.7%
Moneyline	Stanford Cardinal ML	+475	+512	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 54.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at Wisconsin

CFB 11:30am

Wisconsin -9

should be Wisconsin -8.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Wisconsin by 9, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Wisconsin →

Market

Wisconsin by 9TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

Wisconsin by 9

FPI

Wisconsin by 6

Sagarin

Wisconsin by 11

Massey

Wisconsin by 6

Nasty Number

Wisconsin by 8.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Wisconsin by 10 to Wisconsin by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

39.93.6 pts under the market

Massey

430.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

41.52 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-9 -109	43.5 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Pinnacle	-9.5 -102	43.5 -104	-358	+293

All 23 books

	Wisconsin spread	Total (over)	Wisconsin ML	Michigan State ML
TOM	-9 -109	43.5 -110	-350	+275
Kalshi	-7.5 -116 52¢	43.5 -103 49¢	-360 77¢	+296 24¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -110	43.5 -108	-375	+275
BetAnything	-9 -109	43.5 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-9 -112	43.5 -108	-350	+290
BetOnline.ag	-9 -109	43.5 -110	-350	+280
betPARX	-9.5 -110	43.5 -108	-375	+275
BetRivers	-9.5 -114	43.5 -109	-375	+275
BetUS	-8 -110	43.5 -110	-350	+280
Bovada	-9 -110	43 -110	-370	+285
Caesars	-8.5 -120	43.5 -110	-380	+290
Courtside	-8.5 -112	43.5 -108	-350	+293
DraftKings	-8.5 -112	43.5 -110	-360	+285
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 52¢ -117 all-in	42.5 52¢ -117 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	43.5 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	43.5 -110	-410	+315
Fliff	-8.5 -120	43.5 -115	-385	+285
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -110	43.5 -110	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-9 -105	43.5 -108	-350	+280
MyBookie.ag	-8.5 -110	43.5 -110	-361	+279
Pinnacle	-9.5 -102	43.5 -104	-358	+293
ReBet	-9 -114	43.5 -116	-391	+295
theScore Bet	-9.5 -110	43.5 +100	-425	+320

Marked: best for the Wisconsin side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +8.5 · -102 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan State): Caesars +8.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +9.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · TOM +9 at -111 (-2.2%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 49¢ (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

Michigan State to win · +315 at FanDuel

We make it 25 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): FanDuel +315 (0.8%) · Kalshi 24¢ (-0.4%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +290 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +285 (24¢ on the app) (-1.1%) · TOM +275 (-1.8%).

Off the band

the Under 43.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 43.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.6%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 52¢ (-1.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 57°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Michigan State). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onWisconsin by 8.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-9.0	-305
FPI	-6.0	-202
Sagarin	-11.0	-381
Massey	-6.0	-204
Market (20 books)	-9.0	-335

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.5	41.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +8.5	-102	+100	-0.5%
Moneyline	Michigan State Spartans ML	+315	+302	priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 43.5	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at Georgia

CFB 11:45am

Georgia -25

should be Georgia -25 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 25.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Georgia →

Market

Georgia by 25TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Georgia by 25

FPI

Georgia by 25

Sagarin

Georgia by 19

Massey

Georgia by 19.5

Nasty Number

Georgia by 250 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia by 24.5 to Georgia by 25. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.61.6 pts over the market

Massey

56.55.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

54.63.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Vanderbilt ML
TOM	-25 -115	51 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	51.5 +101 48¢	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
Pinnacle	-25 -110	50.5 -114	-2816	+1431

All 23 books

	Georgia spread	Total (over)	Georgia ML	Vanderbilt ML
TOM	-25 -115	51 -108	—	—
Kalshi	—	51.5 +101 48¢	-2580 96¢	+1775 5¢
Bally Bet	-25 -110	50.5 -113	—	+1600
BetAnything	-25.5 -110	50.5 -110	-3200	+1400
BetMGM	-25 -110	50.5 -115	-3000	+1550
BetOnline.ag	-25 -115	51 -108	-3200	+1296
betPARX	-25 -110	50.5 -113	—	+1600
BetRivers	-25 -112	50.5 -114	—	+1500
BetUS	-25.5 -110	51 -110	-3000	+1300
Bovada	-25.5 -110	51 -110	—	+1100
Caesars	-25.5 -106	50.5 -114	—	+1400
Courtside	-25.5 -106	50.5 -113	-2733	+1522
DraftKings	-25.5 -108	50.5 -115	-3200	+1400
DraftKings Predictions	-25.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 48¢ -100 all-in	97¢ -9897 all-in	5¢ +1329 all-in
Fanatics	-25.5 -110	51 -110	-3000	+1500
FanDuel	-24.5 -118	50.5 -115	—	+1600
Fliff	-25.5 -115	50.5 -125	—	+1505
Hard Rock Bet	-24.5 -115	50.5 -110	—	+1600
LowVig.ag	-25 -111	51 -106	-3200	+1296
MyBookie.ag	-25.5 -110	50.5 -110	—	+1355
Pinnacle	-25 -110	50.5 -114	-2816	+1431
ReBet	-26.5 -114	51 -111	—	—
theScore Bet	-25.5 -105	50.5 -110	—	+1500

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia -25.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia): BetMGM -25 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars -25.5 at -106 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -118 (-2.9%) · DraftKings -25.5 at -108 (-3.0%) · TOM -25 at -115 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Georgia to win · -3233 at DraftKings

We make it 95 in 100 to win, the price says 97, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia to win): Kalshi 96¢ (-1.5%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or DraftKings -3000 (-2.0%) · Caesars -3500 (-2.5%) · FanDuel -4500 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 97¢ on the app (-9897 all-in) (-4.3%).

Off the band

the Over 51.0 · -108 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 51.5 at 48¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (1.7%) · TOM 51 at -108 (1.2%) · Caesars 50.5 at -114 (1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 50.5 at -115 (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 78°F, 38% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -25.0 (the market moved 1.6 toward Georgia).

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 2540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-25.0	-1772
FPI	-25.0	-1786
Sagarin	-19.0	-823
Massey	-19.5	-844
Market (20 books)	-25.0	-2742

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	54.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Georgia Bulldogs -25.0	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	Georgia Bulldogs ML	-3233	-1804	priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 51.0	-108	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 6.9.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 50.6 consensus.

The line is -25.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at Buffalo

CFB 12:00pm

Western Michigan -12.5

should be Western Michigan -13 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Buffalo →

Market

Western Michigan by 12.5TOM, -114

The Four

SP+

Western Michigan by 8

FPI

Western Michigan by 13.5

Sagarin

Western Michigan by 13.5

Massey

Western Michigan by 11.5

Nasty Number

Western Michigan by 130.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

46TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

38.87.2 pts under the market

Massey

49.43.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

44.11.9 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Buffalo spread	Total (over)	Buffalo ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+12.5 -114	46 -108	+365	-515
Kalshi	+13.5 -121 53¢	45.5	—	-524 83¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -116	46 -107	+421	-550

All 22 books

	Buffalo spread	Total (over)	Buffalo ML	Western Michigan ML
TOM	+12.5 -114	46 -108	+365	-515
Kalshi	+13.5 -121 53¢	45.5	—	-524 83¢
Bally Bet	+12.5 -110	46.5 -108	+480	-715
BetAnything	+13 -110	46 -110	+375	-500
BetMGM	+12.5 -108	45.5 -110	+400	-525
BetOnline.ag	+12.5 -114	46 -108	+393	-515
betPARX	+12.5 -110	46.5 -108	+480	-715
BetRivers	+12.5 -112	46.5 -109	+480	-715
BetUS	+12.5 -115	46 -110	+390	-500
Bovada	+13 -115	46 -110	+400	-575
Courtside	+12.5 -106	45.5 -110	+413	-515
DraftKings	+12.5 -108	45.5 -112	+400	-535
DraftKings Predictions	+12.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in
Fanatics	+12.5 -110	45.5 -110	+410	-550
FanDuel	+12.5 -112	46.5 -105	+385	-520
Fliff	+12.5 -110	46.5 -115	+405	-580
Hard Rock Bet	+12.5 -110	46.5 -110	+475	-700
LowVig.ag	+12.5 -110	46 -106	+393	-515
MyBookie.ag	+13 -110	46 -110	+430	-625
Pinnacle	+13.5 -116	46 -107	+421	-550
ReBet	+13.5 -114	46 -114	+430	-625
theScore Bet	+12.5 -105	45.5 -110	+400	-600

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan -12.5 · -106 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Michigan): Kalshi -13.5 at 48¢ (-0.7%) · TOM -12.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -12.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -112 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Western Michigan to win · -515 at TOM

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): TOM or FanDuel -515 (-2.7%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -524 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -535 (-3.2%) · Fanatics -550 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 84¢ on the app (-614 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 46.0 · -112 at TOM

SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 49. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · TOM 46 at -112 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-2.7%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $12 available; Buffalo Bulls ML, only $430 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +381 here against +509 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Western Michigan -12.5 while Pinnacle is at Western Michigan by 13.5.

Full detail

We settle onWestern Michigan by 1330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.0	+284
FPI	+13.5	+452
Sagarin	+13.5	+441
Massey	+11.5	+390
Market (19 books)	+12.5	+381

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	46.0	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Western Michigan Broncos -12.5	-106	-102	-0.9%
Moneyline	Western Michigan Broncos ML	-515	-427	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 46.0	-112	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: spread +12.5 here against +13.1 consensus; moneyline +381 here against +509 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball State

CFB 1:00pm

Toledo -21

should be Toledo -21 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 21.

The spread

← more Toledo than the bookmore Ball State →

Market

Toledo by 21TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Toledo by 23

FPI

Toledo by 22

Sagarin

Toledo by 16.5

Massey

Toledo by 19

Nasty Number

Toledo by 210.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Toledo by 19 to Toledo by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.52.5 pts under the market

Massey

54.62.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

52.1on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 52. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ball State spread	Total (over)	Ball State ML	Toledo ML
TOM	+21 -115	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+20.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+944 9¢	-1236 92¢
Pinnacle	+20.5 +102	52 -105	+867	-1389

All 22 books

	Ball State spread	Total (over)	Ball State ML	Toledo ML
TOM	+21 -115	52 -110	—	—
Kalshi	+20.5 +101 48¢	51.5 -112 51¢	+944 9¢	-1236 92¢
Bally Bet	+21 -114	51.5 -110	+1200	—
BetAnything	+21 -105	52 -110	+775	-1350
BetMGM	+21 -115	51.5 -112	+950	-1400
BetOnline.ag	+21 -115	52 -110	+795	-1300
betPARX	+21 -114	51.5 -110	+1200	—
BetRivers	+21 -115	51.5 -112	+1200	—
BetUS	+21 -110	52 -110	+780	-1300
Bovada	+21 -115	52 -105	+775	-1500
Courtside	+21 -110	51.5 -113	+897	-1339
DraftKings	+21 -112	51.5 -115	+850	-1450
DraftKings Predictions	+20.5 49¢ -104 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	9¢ +809 all-in	93¢ -1901 all-in
Fanatics	+20.5 -105	52 -110	+850	-1400
FanDuel	+20.5 -105	51.5 -115	+860	-1600
Fliff	+20.5 -110	51.5 -120	+910	-1950
Hard Rock Bet	+20.5 -105	51.5 -110	+1200	-3000
LowVig.ag	+21 -111	52 -108	+795	-1300
MyBookie.ag	+21 -110	52 -110	+907	-2019
Pinnacle	+20.5 +102	52 -105	+867	-1389
ReBet	+21.5 -114	52 -114	+820	-1587
theScore Bet	+21.5 -125	51.5 -115	+900	-1800

Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -21.0 · -105 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): FanDuel -20.5 at -114 (-0.6%) · Fanatics -20.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · BetMGM or TOM -21 at -105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings -21 at -108 (-1.5%) · Kalshi -20.5 at 53¢ (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Toledo to win · -1236 (92¢) at Kalshi

We make it 91 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): Kalshi 92¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -1400 (-1.9%) · DraftKings -1450 (-2.2%) · FanDuel -1600 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 93¢ on the app (-1901 all-in) (-3.6%).

Off the band

the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or TOM 52 at -110 (-2.2%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 50¢ (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +20.5 (the market moved 5.7 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +21.0 here against +20.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onToledo by 2130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+23.0	+1344
FPI	+22.0	+1212
Sagarin	+16.5	+596
Massey	+19.0	+820
Market (19 books)	+21.0	+1324

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.0	52.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Toledo Rockets -21.0	-105	-102	-0.8%
Moneyline	Toledo Rockets ML	-1236	-1062	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.0	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 5.7 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.

TOM: spread +21.0 here against +20.7 consensus.

The line is +21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee

CFB 2:30pm

Tennessee -6.5

should be Tennessee -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →

Market

Tennessee by 6.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

Tennessee by 8.5

FPI

Tennessee by 7.5

Sagarin

Tennessee by 8

Massey

Tennessee by 9

Nasty Number

Tennessee by 70.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tennessee by 7 to Tennessee by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

54TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.14.9 pts under the market

Massey

54.30.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.72.3 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-260	+210
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	54.5 +105 47¢	-263 71¢	+217 30¢
Pinnacle	-6.5 -111	54.5 +101	-260	+221

All 23 books

	Tennessee spread	Total (over)	Tennessee ML	Auburn ML
TOM	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-260	+210
Kalshi	-6.5 -116 52¢	54.5 +105 47¢	-263 71¢	+217 30¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	54.5 -110	-250	+195
BetAnything	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-260	+215
BetMGM	-6.5 -110	54.5 -102	-250	+210
BetOnline.ag	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-260	+215
betPARX	-6.5 -115	54.5 -110	-250	+195
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	54.5 -112	-250	+195
BetUS	-6.5 -110	54 -110	-260	+218
Bovada	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-270	+220
Caesars	-6.5 -117	53.5 -115	-260	+210
Courtside	-6.5 -115	53.5 -113	-252	+215
DraftKings	-6.5 -115	53.5 -115	-258	+210
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54.5 49¢ -104 all-in	71¢ -271 all-in	30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics	-6.5 -115	54 -110	-260	+210
FanDuel	-6.5 -110	54.5 -105	-250	+202
Fliff	-6.5 -120	53.5 -125	-265	+205
Hard Rock Bet	-6.5 -115	54.5 -110	-250	+195
LowVig.ag	-6.5 -111	54 -108	-260	+215
MyBookie.ag	-6.5 -110	54 -110	-260	+206
Pinnacle	-6.5 -111	54.5 +101	-260	+221
ReBet	-6.5 -119	54 -114	-260	+206
theScore Bet	-6.5 +100	53.5 -110	-240	+200

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -6.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Tennessee): FanDuel or BetMGM -6.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, TOM or Kalshi -6.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · Caesars -6.5 at -117 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

Tennessee to win · -260 at DraftKings

We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 72. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): FanDuel or BetMGM -250 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM -258 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 71¢ (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · Fanatics or TOM 54 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars 53.5 at -105 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 54¢ (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 27% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -6.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward Auburn). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onTennessee by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.5	-302
FPI	-7.5	-267
Sagarin	-8.0	-289
Massey	-9.0	-306
Market (20 books)	-6.5	-249

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.0	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Volunteers -6.5	-110	-110	-0.1%
Moneyline	Tennessee Volunteers ML	-260	-234	-2.1%
Total	Under 54.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.9.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 54.3 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at Missouri

CFB 2:30pm

Missouri +6

should be Missouri +5 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 6, the Nasty Number says Florida by 5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Florida by 6TOM, -109

The Four

SP+

Florida by 2.5

FPI

Florida by 7.5

Sagarin

Florida by 3

Massey

Florida by 3.5

Nasty Number

Florida by 50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 5 to Florida by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

54.92.6 pts under the market

Massey

57.7on the market

Nasty Number

56.31.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Florida ML
TOM	+6 -109	57.5 -115	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -116 52¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	57.5 -115	+186	-215

All 23 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Florida ML
TOM	+6 -109	57.5 -115	+175	-225
Kalshi	+5.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -116 52¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+5.5 -108	57.5 -112	+175	-225
BetAnything	+6 -109	57.5 -115	+185	-225
BetMGM	+5.5 -110	57.5 -112	+180	-220
BetOnline.ag	+6 -109	57.5 -115	+189	-225
betPARX	+5.5 -108	57.5 -112	+175	-225
BetRivers	+5.5 -109	57.5 -113	+175	-225
BetUS	+6 -110	58 -110	+190	-225
Bovada	+5.5 -110	58 -115	+180	-220
Caesars	+5.5 -113	57.5 -110	+178	-213
Courtside	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+184	-213
DraftKings	+5.5 -110	57.5 -112	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	33¢ +186 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics	+5.5 -110	58 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -112	57.5 -115	+176	-215
Fliff	+5.5 -115	57.5 -125	+175	-225
Hard Rock Bet	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+175	-220
LowVig.ag	+6 -105	57.5 -114	+189	-225
MyBookie.ag	+5.5 -110	57.5 -110	+180	-226
Pinnacle	+5.5 -106	57.5 -115	+186	-215
ReBet	+6 -114	57.5 -114	+182	-228
theScore Bet	+5.5 -115	57.5 -105	+175	-210

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +6.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): TOM +6 at -109 (-0.1%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 50¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +5.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +5.5 at -112 (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

Missouri to win · 33¢ on the app (+186 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (Missouri to win): DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics +186 (33¢ on the app) (-0.1%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM +181 (-0.7%) · Caesars +178 (-1.1%) · FanDuel or TOM +176 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

the Under 57.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 57.5 at 49¢ (-0.2%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-0.5%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM 57.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.4%) · Caesars 57.5 at -109 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 72°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Florida).

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +183 here against +203 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+2.5	+124
FPI	+7.5	+272
Sagarin	+3.0	+144
Massey	+3.5	+152
Market (20 books)	+6.0	+183

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	56.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Missouri Tigers +6.0	-109	-109	-0.1%
Moneyline	Missouri Tigers ML	+186	+187	-0.1%
Total	Under 57.5	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread +6.0 here against +5.6 consensus; moneyline +183 here against +203 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida State

CFB 2:30pm

Virginia -1.5

should be Virginia -2 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore Florida State →

Market

Virginia by 1.5TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

Virginia by 6.5

FPI

Virginia by 3

Sagarin

a pick'em

Massey

Florida State by 1.5

Nasty Number

Virginia by 20.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Virginia by 2.5 to Virginia by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

55.94.4 pts over the market

Massey

51.3on the market

Weather

-1.069% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

52.61.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Florida State spread	Total (over)	Florida State ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+1.5 -113	51.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢
Pinnacle	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	+101	-113

All 23 books

	Florida State spread	Total (over)	Florida State ML	Virginia ML
TOM	+1.5 -113	51.5 -110	—	-120
Kalshi	+1.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-103 49¢	-121 53¢
Bally Bet	+2 -112	51.5 -107	+105	-127
BetAnything	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	+100	-120
BetMGM	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	-102	-118
BetOnline.ag	+1.5 -113	51.5 -110	+100	-120
betPARX	+2 -112	51.5 -107	+105	-127
BetRivers	+2 -113	51.5 -108	+104	-129
BetUS	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	+100	-120
Bovada	+1 -110	51.5 -110	-105	-115
Caesars	+1.5 -112	51.5 -110	+101	-120
Courtside	+1.5 -110	51.5 -113	+100	-116
DraftKings	+1.5 -110	51.5 -115	-102	-118
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	49¢ -104 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fanatics	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	+100	-120
FanDuel	+1.5 -118	51.5 -106	+100	-120
Fliff	+1.5 -115	51.5 -120	-105	-125
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	51.5 -105	+105	-125
LowVig.ag	+1.5 -109	51.5 -108	+100	-120
MyBookie.ag	+1.5 -110	52 -110	+100	-123
Pinnacle	+1.5 -110	51.5 -110	+101	-113
ReBet	+1.5 -114	51.5 -116	+100	-123
theScore Bet	+1.5 -110	51.5 -105	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Virginia -1.5 · -107 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Virginia): FanDuel -1.5 at -104 (0.0%) · TOM or Kalshi -1.5 at -107 (-0.7%) · Caesars, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions -1.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -1.5 at -110 (-1.4%).

Not Nasty

Virginia to win · -120 at FanDuel

We make it 54 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 54 cents fair, a play under 49. Where, best first (Virginia to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -118 (-0.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM -120 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 53¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -106 (-0.6%) · Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 51.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 69% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +109 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onVirginia by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.5	+213
FPI	+3.0	+140
Sagarin	PK	+100
Massey	-1.5	-108
Market (20 books)	+1.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	52.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Virginia Cavaliers -1.5	-107	-104	-0.7%
Moneyline	Virginia Cavaliers ML	-120	-116	-0.9%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: moneyline +125 here against +109 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia State

CFB 2:30pm

Georgia State -2.5

should be Georgia State -2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Georgia State →

Market

Georgia State by 2.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

Old Dominion by 1

FPI

Georgia State by 5

Sagarin

Georgia State by 7

Massey

Old Dominion by 2.5

Nasty Number

Georgia State by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

52.20.7 pts over the market

Massey

55.94.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.054% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

53.11.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Georgia State spread	Total (over)	Georgia State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	51.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -109	51 -118	-131	+116

All 22 books

	Georgia State spread	Total (over)	Georgia State ML	Old Dominion ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	51.5 -110	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -112 51¢	51.5 -116 52¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	51.5 -107	-148	+118
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	51.5 -110	-135	+115
BetMGM	-2.5 -108	51.5 -108	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -112	51.5 -110	-135	+115
betPARX	-2.5 -114	51.5 -107	-148	+118
BetRivers	-2.5 -115	51.5 -108	-148	+118
BetUS	-2.5 -110	51.5 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -115	51.5 -110	-135	+115
Courtside	-2.5 -112	51.5 -108	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -112	51.5 -110	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	51.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -106	51.5 -105	-130	+108
Fliff	-2.5 -120	51.5 -115	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	51.5 -105	-145	+120
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -108	51.5 -108	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	51.5 -110	-136	+111
Pinnacle	-2.5 -109	51 -118	-131	+116
ReBet	-2.5 -114	51.5 -116	-136	+111
theScore Bet	-2.5 -105	50.5 -120	-130	+110

Marked: best for the Georgia State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Old Dominion +2.5 · -108 (50¢) at Kalshi

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Old Dominion): Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM +2.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Old Dominion to win · +115 at Fanatics

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Old Dominion to win): Fanatics or TOM +115 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +114 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-1.5%) · BetMGM +110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel +108 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 51.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 52¢ (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 54% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now -2.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Georgia State).

Kalshi thin: Under 51.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia State by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+1.0	+107
FPI	-5.0	-183
Sagarin	-7.0	-235
Massey	+2.5	+127
Market (19 books)	-2.5	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	53.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Old Dominion Monarchs +2.5	-108	-101	-1.6%
Moneyline	Old Dominion Monarchs ML	+115	+120	-1.0%
Total	Over 51.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa

CFB 2:30pm

Iowa +14.5

should be Iowa +14 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →

Market

Ohio State by 14.5TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

Ohio State by 12

FPI

Ohio State by 13

Sagarin

Ohio State by 5.5

Massey

Ohio State by 9

Nasty Number

Ohio State by 140.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ohio State by 14 to Ohio State by 14.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

45.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

44.60.9 pts under the market

Massey

44.11.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

44.41.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Ohio State ML
TOM	+14.5 -116	45.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	+14.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	+490 16¢	-609 85¢
Pinnacle	+14.5 -115	46 -101	+465	-622

All 23 books

	Iowa spread	Total (over)	Iowa ML	Ohio State ML
TOM	+14.5 -116	45.5 -115	—	—
Kalshi	+14.5 -121 53¢	45.5 -107 50¢	+490 16¢	-609 85¢
Bally Bet	+14.5 -117	45.5 -109	+500	-770
BetAnything	+14.5 -110	45.5 -110	+450	-650
BetMGM	+14 -105	45.5 -108	+475	-650
BetOnline.ag	+14.5 -116	45.5 -115	+476	-650
betPARX	+14.5 -117	45.5 -109	+500	-770
BetRivers	+14.5 -117	45.5 -110	+480	-770
BetUS	+14.5 -110	46 -110	+475	-650
Bovada	+14 +100	45.5 -110	+450	-650
Caesars	+14.5 -117	45.5 -113	+450	-625
Courtside	+14.5 -113	45.5 -108	+471	-600
DraftKings	+14.5 -115	45.5 -110	+455	-625
DraftKings Predictions	+14.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45.5 51¢ -113 all-in	16¢ +456 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in
Fanatics	+14.5 -115	45.5 -110	+475	-650
FanDuel	+14.5 -118	45.5 -105	+490	-710
Fliff	+14.5 -125	45.5 -115	+470	-700
Hard Rock Bet	+14.5 -115	45.5 -110	+500	-750
LowVig.ag	+14.5 -112	45.5 -114	+476	-650
MyBookie.ag	+14.5 -110	45.5 -110	+467	-720
Pinnacle	+14.5 -115	46 -101	+465	-622
ReBet	+14.5 -116	45.5 -114	+490	-752
theScore Bet	+14.5 -115	45.5 -110	+500	-800

Marked: best for the Iowa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +14.5 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa): BetMGM +14 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +14.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · TOM +14.5 at -116 (-1.3%) · Caesars +14.5 at -117 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · +475 at BetMGM

We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa to win): Kalshi or FanDuel +490 (0.4%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +475 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or Caesars +456 (16¢ on the app) (-0.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 45.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 45.5 at -105 (-1.3%) · Caesars 45.5 at -107 (-1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 45.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onOhio State by 1421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+12.0	+402
FPI	+13.0	+426
Sagarin	+5.5	+197
Massey	+9.0	+309
Market (20 books)	+14.5	+585

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	45.5	44.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +14.5	-116	-110	-1.3%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	+475	+475	priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 45.5	-105	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota State

CFB 2:30pm

North Dakota State -17

should be North Dakota State -17.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 17.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore North Dakota State →

Market

North Dakota State by 17TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

North Dakota State by 22.5

FPI

North Dakota State by 18

Sagarin

North Dakota State by 17.5

Massey

North Dakota State by 14

Nasty Number

North Dakota State by 17.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 18 to North Dakota State by 17. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

395 pts under the market

Massey

42.71.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.93.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 45.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	North Dakota State spread	Total (over)	North Dakota State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-17 -110	44 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -107 50¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-17 -105	44.5 -106	-1053	+704

All 22 books

	North Dakota State spread	Total (over)	North Dakota State ML	Wyoming ML
TOM	-17 -110	44 -115	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5 +105 47¢	44.5 -107 50¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Bally Bet	-16.5 -115	43.5 -118	-1250	+700
BetAnything	-17 -110	44 -110	-1100	+700
BetMGM	-17 -108	44.5 -108	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-17 -110	44 -115	-1100	+709
betPARX	-16.5 -115	43.5 -118	-1250	+700
BetRivers	-16.5 -117	43.5 -120	-1250	+700
BetUS	-17 -110	44 -110	-1000	+650
Bovada	-17 -110	44.5 -110	-1100	+650
Courtside	-16.5 -116	44.5 -106	-987	+706
DraftKings	-16.5 -118	44.5 -108	-1050	+675
DraftKings Predictions	-17.5 49¢ -104 all-in	45.5 47¢ +104 all-in	90¢ -1150 all-in	11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics	-17 -110	44.5 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-17.5 -102	44.5 -110	-1100	+680
Fliff	-17.5 -105	44.5 -115	-1205	+685
Hard Rock Bet	-16.5 -115	43.5 -120	-1300	+700
LowVig.ag	-17 -106	44 -114	-1100	+709
MyBookie.ag	-17 -110	44.5 -110	-1000	+620
Pinnacle	-17 -105	44.5 -106	-1053	+704
ReBet	-17 -114	44.5 -116	-1000	+620
theScore Bet	-17.5 +100	44.5 +100	-1000	+600

Marked: best for the North Dakota State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Dakota State -17.5 · +105 (47¢) at Kalshi

Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (North Dakota State): Kalshi -17.5 at 47¢ (0.4%) · BetMGM -17 at -108 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -17.5 at -102 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -16.5 at -118 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM -17 at -110 (-1.4%).

Blowout line

North Dakota State to win · -967 (90¢) at Kalshi

We make it 87 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (North Dakota State to win): Kalshi 90¢ (-3.6%) · BetMGM -1000 (-3.8%) · DraftKings -1050 (-4.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -1100 (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 90¢ on the app (-1150 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 44.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (0.5%) · TOM 44 at -105 (0.4%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or BetMGM 44.5 at -112 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -17.0 (the market moved 2.8 toward Wyoming). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNorth Dakota State by 17.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-22.5	-1294
FPI	-18.0	-738
Sagarin	-17.5	-722
Massey	-14.0	-464
Market (19 books)	-17.0	-942

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	40.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	North Dakota State Bison -17.5	+105	+104	+0.4%
Moneyline	North Dakota State Bison ML	-967	-673	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 44.0	-105	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.8 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.3 consensus.

The line is -17.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Samford Bulldogs at UAB BlazersSamford at UAB

CFB 2:30pm

Samford +30

should be Samford +27.5 · getting 2.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says UAB by 30.

The spread

← more Samford than the bookmore UAB →

Market

UAB by 30TOM, -110

The Four

Sagarin

UAB by 16.5

Nasty Number

UAB by 27.52.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from UAB by 30.5 to UAB by 30. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Samford ML
TOM	-30 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -116 52¢	—	+3021 3¢
Pinnacle	-30.5 -118	53.5 -121	—	—

All 19 books

	UAB spread	Total (over)	UAB ML	Samford ML
TOM	-30 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	53.5 -116 52¢	—	+3021 3¢
Bally Bet	-30.5 -114	54 -110	—	—
BetMGM	-30.5 -110	54.5 -110	—	+2200
BetOnline.ag	-30 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-30.5 -114	54 -110	—	—
BetRivers	-30.5 -115	54 -112	—	—
Bovada	-30.5 -120	54.5 -105	—	—
Courtside	-30.5 -108	54.5 -106	—	+1878
DraftKings	-30.5 -110	54.5 -108	—	+1700
DraftKings Predictions	-30.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 50¢ -108 all-in	—	3¢ +1900 all-in
Fanatics	-30.5 -110	54 -110	—	+2800
FanDuel	-30.5 -114	54.5 -110	—	+2200
Fliff	-30.5 -120	53.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-30.5 -115	53.5 -120	—	—
LowVig.ag	-30 -110	54.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-30.5 -118	53.5 -121	—	—
ReBet	-30.5 -113	53.5 -110	—	—
theScore Bet	-30.5 -115	53.5 -120	—	+3000

Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Samford +30.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Samford): FanDuel +30.5 at -106 (6.4%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +30.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (5.9%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +30.5 at -110 (5.5%) · TOM +30 at -110 (4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Blowout line

Samford to win · +2465

We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 4, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Samford to win): Kalshi 3¢ (0.9%) · Fanatics +2800 (0.7%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +2200 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 3¢ on the app (+1900 all-in) (-0.8%) · DraftKings +1700 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain.

The ratings sit 14 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.5 consensus.

TOM: total 54.5 here against 53.8 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUAB by 27.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Samford
FPI	doesn't rate Samford
Sagarin	-16.5	-590
Massey	rates Samford and UAB on different scales
Market (16 books)	-30.0	-4892

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	54.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Samford Bulldogs +30.5	-106	-137	+6.4%
Moneyline	Samford Bulldogs ML	+2465	+2308	priced at 4 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable

Line move: total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread -30.0 here against -30.5 consensus; total 54.5 here against 53.8 consensus.

The line is -30.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James Madison

CFB 2:45pm

James Madison -18

should be James Madison -19 · getting 1 pt · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore James Madison →

Market

James Madison by 18TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

James Madison by 24.5

FPI

James Madison by 21

Sagarin

James Madison by 20.5

Massey

James Madison by 18

Nasty Number

James Madison by 191.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from James Madison by 18.5 to James Madison by 18. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

58.62.6 pts over the market

Massey

57.41.4 pts over the market

Weather

-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

571 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 56.5 to 56. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	James Madison spread	Total (over)	James Madison ML	Marshall ML
TOM	-18 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5 -112 51¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Pinnacle	-18.5 +100	55.5 -112	-985	+669

All 22 books

	James Madison spread	Total (over)	James Madison ML	Marshall ML
TOM	-18 -115	56 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5 -112 51¢	55.5 -112 51¢	-967 90¢	+756 11¢
Bally Bet	-18 -112	56.5 -112	-2000	+850
BetAnything	-18 -110	56 -110	-1100	+700
BetMGM	-18 -110	56.5 -105	-1000	+700
BetOnline.ag	-18 -115	56 -110	-1075	+697
betPARX	-18 -112	56.5 -112	-2000	+850
BetRivers	-18 -113	56.5 -113	-2000	+850
BetUS	-18 -110	56 -110	-1075	+695
Bovada	-18 -110	56 -105	-1000	+625
Courtside	-18.5 -103	55.5 -108	-987	+706
DraftKings	-18.5 -105	55.5 -110	-1050	+675
DraftKings Predictions	-17.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54.5 54¢ -127 all-in	90¢ -1150 all-in	11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics	-18 -110	55.5 -110	-1100	+700
FanDuel	-18.5 -110	56.5 -104	-1100	+680
Fliff	-18.5 -110	55.5 -120	-1250	+705
Hard Rock Bet	-18.5 -105	56.5 -110	-2000	+850
LowVig.ag	-18 -111	56 -108	-1075	+697
MyBookie.ag	-18 -110	56 -110	-1122	+658
Pinnacle	-18.5 +100	55.5 -112	-985	+669
ReBet	-18.5 -116	56.5 -109	-1000	+610
theScore Bet	-18.5 -105	55.5 -115	-1200	+700

Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -17.5 · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings Predictions -17.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.8%) · Kalshi -17.5 at 51¢ (1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -18 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings -18.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · TOM -18 at -115 (-1.0%).

Blowout line

James Madison to win · -1075 at DraftKings

We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 91, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (James Madison to win): Kalshi 90¢ (-1.3%) · BetMGM -1000 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -1050 (-2.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -1100 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 90¢ on the app (-1150 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 51¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.8%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -104 (-1.9%) · TOM 56 at -110 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onJames Madison by 1930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-24.5	-1708
FPI	-21.0	-1084
Sagarin	-20.5	-969
Massey	-18.0	-755
Market (19 books)	-18.0	-946

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	57.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	James Madison Dukes -17.5	-108	-116	+1.8%
Moneyline	James Madison Dukes ML	-1075	-836	priced at 91 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -18.0 here against -18.4 consensus.

The line is -18.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at Nebraska

CFB 3:00pm

Nebraska -14.5

should be Nebraska -15 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 15. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Nebraska by 14.5TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Nebraska by 15

FPI

Nebraska by 20

Sagarin

Nebraska by 15.5

Massey

Nebraska by 13

Nasty Number

Nebraska by 150.3 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

52.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

53.40.9 pts over the market

Massey

51.31.2 pts under the market

Weather

-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off

Nasty Number

51.70.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-14.5 -105	52.5 -108	-659	+488

All 23 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Maryland ML
TOM	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-14.5 -107 50¢	52.5 -107 50¢	-660 86¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-15 -110	52 -109	-910	+575
BetAnything	-15 -110	52.5 -110	-700	+500
BetMGM	-14.5 -110	52.5 -108	-650	+500
BetOnline.ag	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	-675	+491
betPARX	-15 -110	52 -109	-910	+575
BetRivers	-15 -112	52 -110	-910	+525
BetUS	-15 -110	52.5 -110	-675	+490
Bovada	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	-700	+475
Caesars	-14.5 -110	52.5 -106	-675	+475
Courtside	-14.5 -110	52.5 -108	-669	+519
DraftKings	-14.5 -112	52.5 -110	-700	+500
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 54¢ -127 all-in	86¢ -733 all-in	15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	-650	+475
FanDuel	-14.5 -110	52.5 -110	-650	+470
Fliff	-14.5 -115	52.5 -115	-750	+490
Hard Rock Bet	-14.5 -115	51.5 -115	-900	+575
LowVig.ag	-14.5 -106	52.5 -108	-675	+491
MyBookie.ag	-15 -110	52.5 -110	-752	+490
Pinnacle	-14.5 -105	52.5 -108	-659	+488
ReBet	-15.5 -114	52.5 -114	-752	+490
theScore Bet	-14.5 -105	52.5 -110	-700	+450

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska -14.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): Kalshi -14.5 at 50¢ (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -14.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings -14.5 at -112 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Nebraska to win · -687

We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or Kalshi -650 (-2.4%) · Caesars -675 (-2.8%) · DraftKings -700 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 0.7 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.9%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%) · Caesars 52.5 at -114 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 70°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.6 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail

We settle onNebraska by 1530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.0	-549
FPI	-20.0	-882
Sagarin	-15.5	-553
Massey	-13.0	-426
Market (20 books)	-14.5	-619

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	52.5	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5	-110	-102	-2.0%
Moneyline	Nebraska Cornhuskers ML	-687	-536	priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 52.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New Mexico

CFB 3:00pm

New Mexico -23.5

should be New Mexico -24 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 23.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore New Mexico →

Market

New Mexico by 23.5TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

New Mexico by 34

FPI

New Mexico by 27.5

Sagarin

New Mexico by 25

Massey

New Mexico by 19.5

Nasty Number

New Mexico by 240.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico by 22.5 to New Mexico by 23.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

48.1on the market

Massey

55.27.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

51.73.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	UTEP ML
TOM	-23.5 -115	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 -112 51¢	-2042 95¢	+1464 6¢
Pinnacle	-22.5 -114	48.5 -102	-1914	+1094

All 21 books

	New Mexico spread	Total (over)	New Mexico ML	UTEP ML
TOM	-23.5 -115	48 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	47.5 -112 51¢	-2042 95¢	+1464 6¢
Bally Bet	-22.5 -112	48.5 -110	—	+1200
BetAnything	-23.5 -110	48 -110	-2000	+1000
BetMGM	-23.5 -108	47.5 -125	-2000	+1200
BetOnline.ag	-23.5 -115	48 -110	-2400	+1136
betPARX	-22.5 -112	48.5 -110	—	+1200
BetRivers	-22.5 -112	48.5 -112	—	+1200
BetUS	-24 -110	48 -110	-2400	+1150
Bovada	-23 -110	48 -110	-2000	+950
Courtside	-23.5 -108	47.5 -113	-2122	+1290
DraftKings	-23.5 -110	47.5 -115	-2400	+1200
DraftKings Predictions	-23.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	95¢ -3233 all-in	6¢ +1150 all-in
Fanatics	-23.5 -110	48 -110	-2200	+1200
FanDuel	-22.5 -110	48.5 -105	-2500	+1100
Fliff	-23.5 -115	48.5 -110	—	+1170
Hard Rock Bet	-22.5 -110	48.5 -110	-3000	+1200
LowVig.ag	-23.5 -111	48 -108	-2400	+1136
MyBookie.ag	-24 -110	48 -110	-2500	+1050
Pinnacle	-22.5 -114	48.5 -102	-1914	+1094
theScore Bet	-22.5 -110	48.5 +100	-3000	+1200

Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -22.5 · -110 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (New Mexico): FanDuel -22.5 at -110 (2.0%) · BetMGM -23.5 at -108 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -23.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -23.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.5%) · TOM -23.5 at -115 (-1.0%).

Blowout line

New Mexico to win · -2400 at DraftKings

We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): BetMGM or Kalshi -2000 (-1.2%) · Fanatics -2200 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -2400 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 95¢ on the app (-3233 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (2.1%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (1.1%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -105 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.8 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onNew Mexico by 2430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-34.0	—
FPI	-27.5	-2271
Sagarin	-25.0	-1842
Massey	-19.5	-875
Market (18 books)	-23.5	-1848

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico Lobos -22.5	-110	-119	+2.0%
Moneyline	New Mexico Lobos ML	-2400	-1588	priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -23.5 here against -22.8 consensus; total 48.0 here against 48.3 consensus.

The line is -23.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South Carolina

CFB 3:15pm

South Carolina -2.5

should be South Carolina -2.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 2.5, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore South Carolina →

Market

South Carolina by 2.5TOM, -112

The Four

SP+

South Carolina by 1.5

FPI

South Carolina by 2.5

Sagarin

South Carolina by 4

Massey

South Carolina by 1.5

Nasty Number

South Carolina by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from South Carolina by 3 to South Carolina by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

56.53 pts over the market

Massey

52.51 pts under the market

Weather

-1.074% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

53.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Kentucky ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	53.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	54 -104	-130	+116

All 22 books

	South Carolina spread	Total (over)	South Carolina ML	Kentucky ML
TOM	-2.5 -112	53.5 -110	-138	+118
Kalshi	-2.5 -107 50¢	53.5 -107 50¢	-136 56¢	+114 45¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -117	53.5 -112	-148	+120
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	53 -110	-135	+115
BetMGM	-2.5 -110	53.5 -108	-140	+115
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -112	53.5 -110	-138	+118
betPARX	-2.5 -117	53.5 -112	-148	+120
BetRivers	-2.5 -117	53.5 -113	-148	+118
BetUS	-2.5 -110	53.5 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2.5 -110	53 -105	-135	+115
Caesars	-2.5 -118	52.5 -122	-139	+118
Courtside	-2.5 -112	53.5 -108	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -112	53.5 -110	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 54¢ -127 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -110	53.5 -110	-140	+115
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	52.5 -110	-137	+114
Fliff	-2.5 -120	53.5 -115	-145	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -115	53.5 -110	-145	+120
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -108	53.5 -108	-138	+118
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -110	53.5 -110	-139	+114
Pinnacle	-2.5 -108	54 -104	-130	+116
theScore Bet	-2.5 -110	51.5 -120	-130	+110

Marked: best for the South Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +2.5 · -103 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Kentucky): Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-0.6%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +2.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Kentucky to win · +118 at Caesars

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Kentucky to win): DraftKings +120 (-0.0%) · Caesars or TOM +118 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (-1.1%) · FanDuel or Kalshi +114 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 52. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.6%) · Kalshi or BetMGM 53.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 53.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Caesars 52.5 at -122 (-2.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 80°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -2.5 (the market moved 3.5 toward Kentucky). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

theScore Bet has the total at 51.5 while Pinnacle is at 54. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onSouth Carolina by 2.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-1.5	-113
FPI	-2.5	-125
Sagarin	-4.0	-170
Massey	-1.5	-111
Market (19 books)	-2.5	-132

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	53.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kentucky Wildcats +2.5	-103	-101	-0.6%
Moneyline	Kentucky Wildcats ML	+118	+120	-0.5%
Total	Over 53.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.5 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Southern Tigers at Florida Atlantic OwlsTexas Southern at Florida Atlantic

CFB 5:00pm

Texas Southern +45

should be Texas Southern +41 · getting 4 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Florida Atlantic by 45.

The spread

← more Texas Southern than the bookmore Florida Atlantic →

Market

Florida Atlantic by 45TOM, -115

The Four

Sagarin

Florida Atlantic by 32.5

Nasty Number

Florida Atlantic by 414.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida Atlantic by 44 to Florida Atlantic by 45. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Texas Southern ML
TOM	-45 -115	61.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	61.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-44 -114	61.5 -106	—	—

All 18 books

	Florida Atlantic spread	Total (over)	Florida Atlantic ML	Texas Southern ML
TOM	-45 -115	61.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	—	61.5 -107 50¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-44.5 -113	62 -109	—	—
BetMGM	-44.5 -110	61.5 -110	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-45 -115	61.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-44.5 -113	62 -109	—	—
BetRivers	-44.5 -114	62 -110	—	—
Bovada	-44 -115	61.5 -105	—	—
Courtside	-44.5 -110	61.5 -108	—	—
DraftKings	-44.5 -112	61.5 -110	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-44.5 52¢ -117 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-44.5 -110	61.5 -110	—	—
FanDuel	-44.5 -108	61.5 -114	—	—
Fliff	-44.5 -120	61.5 -120	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-44.5 -110	61.5 -115	—	—
LowVig.ag	-45 -115	61.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-44 -114	61.5 -106	—	—
theScore Bet	-44.5 -110	61.5 -105	—	—

Marked: best for the Florida Atlantic side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Southern +45.0 · -105 at TOM

Covers 62 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Texas Southern): TOM +45 at -105 (11.1%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +44.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (8.0%) · Fanatics +44.5 at -110 (7.5%) · FanDuel +44.5 at -112 (7.0%).

Blowout line

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 86°F, 22% chance of rain. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

The ratings sit 12 points off the market here. A gap that big usually means a rating is stale, not that the market is wrong, so the number is discounted.

TOM: spread -45.0 here against -44.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 4130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate Texas Southern
FPI	doesn't rate Texas Southern
Sagarin	-32.5	—
Massey	rates Texas Southern and Florida Atlantic on different scales
Market (15 books)	-45.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	61.5	—

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Southern Tigers +45.0	-105	-165	+11.1%

TOM: spread -45.0 here against -44.2 consensus.

The line is -45.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU

CFB 6:00pm

BYU -6

should be BYU -6 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →

Market

BYU by 6TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

BYU by 6

FPI

BYU by 6.5

Sagarin

BYU by 0.5

Massey

BYU by 1.5

Nasty Number

BYU by 60 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from BYU by 6.5 to BYU by 6. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

47.40.6 pts under the market

Massey

51.43.4 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.41.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
TOM	+6 -113	48 -110	+180	-220
Kalshi	+6.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -121 53¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Pinnacle	+6 -108	48 -105	+187	-217

All 21 books

	TCU spread	Total (over)	TCU ML	BYU ML
TOM	+6 -113	48 -110	+180	-220
Kalshi	+6.5 -116 52¢	47.5 -121 53¢	+189 33¢	-229 68¢
Bally Bet	+6 -110	47.5 -113	+195	-250
BetMGM	+6 -108	47.5 -115	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+6 -113	48 -110	+186	-220
betPARX	+6 -110	47.5 -113	+195	-250
BetRivers	+6 -112	47.5 -114	+190	-250
BetUS	+6 -110	48 -110	+185	-220
Bovada	+6 -110	48 -105	+185	-225
Caesars	+5.5 -104	48 -109	+195	-235
Courtside	+6 -110	47.5 -122	+194	-225
DraftKings	+6 -112	48.5 -102	+190	-230
DraftKings Predictions	+5.5 49¢ -104 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	34¢ +178 all-in	68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics	+6 -110	48 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+5.5 -104	47.5 -114	+180	-220
Fliff	+5.5 -110	47.5 -125	+185	-235
Hard Rock Bet	+6.5 -115	47.5 -110	+195	-250
LowVig.ag	+6 -109	48 -108	+186	-220
MyBookie.ag	+6 -110	48 -110	+190	-240
Pinnacle	+6 -108	48 -105	+187	-217
theScore Bet	+6.5 -115	48.5 -105	+195	-230

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU +6.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): BetMGM +6 at -108 (-1.8%) · FanDuel, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-2.1%) · Fanatics +6 at -110 (-2.3%) · Kalshi +6.5 at 52¢ (-2.4%) · DraftKings +6 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

TCU to win · +195 at Caesars

We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 29. Where, best first (TCU to win): Caesars +195 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +190 (-1.3%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +185 (-1.9%) · FanDuel or TOM +180 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 34¢ on the app (+178 all-in) (-2.9%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -102 (-0.8%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-1.1%) · Caesars 48 at -109 (-1.2%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 630% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+6.0	+201
FPI	+6.5	+212
Sagarin	+0.5	+101
Massey	+1.5	+113
Market (18 books)	+6.0	+188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	TCU Horned Frogs +6.0	-108	-100	-1.8%
Moneyline	TCU Horned Frogs ML	+195	+202	-0.8%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.6.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +208 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina

CFB 6:00pm

Georgia Southern -2

should be Georgia Southern -1.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →

Market

Georgia Southern by 2TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Georgia Southern by 0.5

FPI

Georgia Southern by 2

Sagarin

Coastal Carolina by 1

Massey

Georgia Southern by 1.5

Nasty Number

Georgia Southern by 1.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Georgia Southern by 2.5 to Georgia Southern by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

53.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

58.14.6 pts over the market

Massey

53.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

562.5 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	+2 -110	53.5 -105	+105	-125
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+109 46¢	-126 54¢
Pinnacle	+1.5 -102	54 -101	+109	-123

All 21 books

	Coastal Carolina spread	Total (over)	Coastal Carolina ML	Georgia Southern ML
TOM	+2 -110	53.5 -105	+105	-125
Kalshi	+2.5 -116 52¢	53.5 -107 50¢	+109 46¢	-126 54¢
Bally Bet	+1.5 -109	53.5 -109	+100	-124
BetAnything	+2 -110	53 -110	+105	-125
BetMGM	+2 -110	52.5 -110	+105	-125
BetOnline.ag	+2 -110	53.5 -105	+105	-125
betPARX	+1.5 -109	53.5 -109	+100	-124
BetRivers	+1.5 -109	53.5 -110	+100	-124
BetUS	+2 -105	53 -110	+105	-125
Bovada	+2 -110	53.5 -110	+105	-125
Courtside	+1.5 -108	52.5 -116	+107	-122
DraftKings	+2.5 -118	53.5 -105	+105	-125
DraftKings Predictions	+1.5 50¢ -108 all-in	54.5 48¢ -100 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in
Fanatics	+2 -110	53.5 -110	+105	-125
FanDuel	+1.5 -105	53.5 -108	+104	-125
Fliff	+1.5 -110	53.5 -115	+100	-130
Hard Rock Bet	+1.5 -110	53.5 -110	+100	-125
LowVig.ag	+2 -106	53.5 -103	+105	-125
MyBookie.ag	+2 -110	53 -110	+104	-127
Pinnacle	+1.5 -102	54 -101	+109	-123
theScore Bet	+2.5 -115	53.5 -105	+105	-125

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +2.0 · -110 at Fanatics

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +2 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 52¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.9%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -118 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Coastal Carolina to win · +105 at DraftKings

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 49. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): Kalshi 46¢ (-0.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions +105 (47¢ on the app) (-1.3%) · FanDuel +104 (-1.6%).

Not Nasty

the Over 53.5 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (2.3%) · DraftKings or TOM 53.5 at -105 (0.9%) · Kalshi or FanDuel 53.5 at -107 (0.4%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 77°F, 35% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +1.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Coastal Carolina).

Kalshi thin: Under 53.5, only $113 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +1.7 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia Southern by 1.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+0.5	+101
FPI	+2.0	+118
Sagarin	-1.0	-103
Massey	+1.5	+110
Market (18 books)	+2.0	+110

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	53.5	56.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.0	-110	-105	-1.2%
Moneyline	Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML	+105	+111	-1.3%
Total	Over 53.5	-105	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Coastal Carolina Chanticleers since 09-27 22:42.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +1.7 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at Rice

CFB 6:00pm

Rice +13

should be Rice +12 · getting 1 pt · no bet

▼Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says UTSA by 13, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 12. 1.2 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Rice →

Market

UTSA by 13TOM, -115

The Four

SP+

UTSA by 12

FPI

UTSA by 11.5

Sagarin

UTSA by 11

Massey

UTSA by 13.5

Nasty Number

UTSA by 121.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from UTSA by 11.5 to UTSA by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

56TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

59.93.9 pts over the market

Massey

58.52.5 pts over the market

Nasty Number

59.23.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	UTSA ML
TOM	+13 -115	56 -110	+400	-550
Kalshi	+11.5 -107 50¢	56.5 -103 49¢	+373 20¢	-490 82¢
Pinnacle	+11.5 +101	56 -107	+379	-484

All 21 books

	Rice spread	Total (over)	Rice ML	UTSA ML
TOM	+13 -115	56 -110	+400	-550
Kalshi	+11.5 -107 50¢	56.5 -103 49¢	+373 20¢	-490 82¢
Bally Bet	+11.5 -109	55.5 -113	+420	-590
BetAnything	+13 -110	56 -110	+410	-550
BetMGM	+12.5 -115	56.5 -112	+400	-525
BetOnline.ag	+13 -115	56 -110	+415	-550
betPARX	+11.5 -109	55.5 -113	+420	-590
BetRivers	+11.5 -110	55.5 -114	+420	-625
BetUS	+13 -115	56 -110	+425	-550
Bovada	+12.5 -110	56 -110	+360	-500
Courtside	+12.5 -110	56.5 -108	+402	-501
DraftKings	+12.5 -112	55.5 -115	+390	-520
DraftKings Predictions	+12.5 52¢ -117 all-in	57.5 47¢ +104 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in	82¢ -526 all-in
Fanatics	+12.5 -110	56 -110	+375	-500
FanDuel	+11.5 -110	55.5 -114	+390	-530
Fliff	+12.5 -120	55.5 -120	+390	-555
Hard Rock Bet	+11.5 -110	55.5 -110	+425	-600
LowVig.ag	+13 -111	56 -108	+415	-550
MyBookie.ag	+12.5 -110	56 -110	+360	-500
Pinnacle	+11.5 +101	56 -107	+379	-484
theScore Bet	+12.5 -115	55.5 -115	+400	-600

Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rice +13.0 · -115 at TOM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rice): Fanatics +12.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · TOM +13 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +12.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · Kalshi +11.5 at 50¢ (-2.2%) · BetMGM +12.5 at -115 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Rice to win · +400 at BetMGM

We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Rice to win): BetMGM or TOM +400 (-0.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +390 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions, Fanatics or Kalshi +376 (19¢ on the app) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (0.3%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 49¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (0.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 56 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 85°F, 40% chance of rain.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now Not Nasty.

Across the books: opened +10.5, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward UTSA).

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +11.9 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onUTSA by 1230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+12.0	+404
FPI	+11.5	+398
Sagarin	+11.0	+382
Massey	+13.5	+452
Market (18 books)	+13.0	+418

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	56.0	59.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Rice Owls +13.0	-115	-106	-2.0%
Moneyline	Rice Owls ML	+400	+403	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 56.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward UTSA Roadrunners since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.4.

TOM: spread +13.0 here against +11.9 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise State

CFB 6:30pm

Boise State -19

should be Boise State -19.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 19.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Boise State →

Market

Boise State by 19TOM, -116

The Four

SP+

Boise State by 19

FPI

Boise State by 20.5

Sagarin

Boise State by 19.5

Massey

Boise State by 13.5

Nasty Number

Boise State by 19.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Boise State by 20.5 to Boise State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.32.2 pts under the market

Massey

51.3on the market

Nasty Number

50.31.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-19 -116	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5	51.5 -112 51¢	-1236 92¢	—
Pinnacle	-19.5 -106	51.5 -108	-1222	+788

All 22 books

	Boise State spread	Total (over)	Boise State ML	Utah State ML
TOM	-19 -116	51.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-17.5	51.5 -112 51¢	-1236 92¢	—
Bally Bet	-19.5 -110	51.5 -112	—	+1150
BetAnything	-19 -110	51.5 -110	-1600	+900
BetMGM	-19.5 -112	51.5 -108	-1400	+950
BetOnline.ag	-19 -116	51.5 -110	-1400	+836
betPARX	-19.5 -110	51.5 -112	—	+1150
BetRivers	-19.5 -110	51.5 -113	—	+1150
BetUS	-19 -110	51.5 -110	-1600	+900
Bovada	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1300	+725
Caesars	-19.5 -105	51.5 -107	-1450	+850
Courtside	-19.5 -106	51.5 -106	-1339	+897
DraftKings	-19.5 -108	51.5 -108	-1450	+850
DraftKings Predictions	-19.5 51¢ -113 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	92¢ -1567 all-in	10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1400	+850
FanDuel	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-1600	+860
Fliff	-19.5 -115	51.5 -115	-1925	+905
Hard Rock Bet	-19.5 -110	51.5 -110	-3000	+1200
LowVig.ag	-19 -112	51.5 -108	-1400	+836
MyBookie.ag	-19 -110	51.5 -110	-1699	+852
Pinnacle	-19.5 -106	51.5 -108	-1222	+788
theScore Bet	-18.5 -115	51.5 -110	-1600	+800

Marked: best for the Boise State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boise State -19.5 · -105 at Caesars

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Boise State): Caesars -19.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -108 (-2.1%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -19.5 at -110 (-2.6%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions -19.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-3.0%) · TOM -19 at -116 (-3.0%).

Blowout line

Boise State to win · -1236 (92¢) at Kalshi

We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 93, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boise State to win): Kalshi 92¢ (-3.1%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -1400 (-3.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -1450 (-4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel -1567 (92¢ on the app) (-4.5%).

Off the band

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (0.2%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 50¢ (-0.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · Caesars 51.5 at -113 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 85°F.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -19.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Utah State).

Kalshi thin: Boise State Broncos -17.5, only $13 available; Utah State Aggies ML, only $395 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBoise State by 19.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-19.0	-829
FPI	-20.5	-914
Sagarin	-19.5	-865
Massey	-13.5	-449
Market (19 books)	-19.0	-1226

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	50.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Boise State Broncos -19.5	-105	+101	-1.4%
Moneyline	Boise State Broncos ML	-1236	-848	priced at 93 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-105	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Utah State Aggies since 09-27 22:42; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: spread -19.0 here against -19.4 consensus.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at Clemson

CFB 6:30pm

Miami -15.5

should be Miami -15.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 15.5, the Nasty Number says Miami by 15.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Clemson →

Market

Miami by 15.5

The Four

SP+

Miami by 18.5

FPI

Miami by 16

Sagarin

Miami by 8

Massey

Miami by 9.5

Nasty Number

Miami by 15.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Miami by 17 to Miami by 15.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

42.75.1 pts under the market

Massey

49.82 pts over the market

Weather

-1.074% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

45.32.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+14.5 -103 49¢	46.5 -126 54¢	+573 14¢	-719 87¢
Pinnacle	+15.5 -107	48 +100	+565	-793

All 20 books

	Clemson spread	Total (over)	Clemson ML	Miami ML
Kalshi	+14.5 -103 49¢	46.5 -126 54¢	+573 14¢	-719 87¢
Bally Bet	+15 -110	48 -108	+550	-835
BetAnything	+16 -110	47.5 -110	+525	-725
BetMGM	+15.5 -110	47.5 -110	+525	-700
BetOnline.ag	+14.5 -105	47.5 -110	+520	-725
betPARX	+15 -110	48 -108	+550	-835
BetRivers	+15 -112	48 -109	+525	-835
BetUS	+15 -110	47.5 -110	+515	-725
Bovada	+15.5 -110	47.5 -110	+550	-850
Caesars	+15.5 -109	47.5 -109	+500	-750
Courtside	+15.5 -108	47.5 -110	+545	-715
DraftKings	+15.5 -110	47.5 -112	+525	-750
Fanatics	+15.5 -110	47.5 -110	+550	-800
FanDuel	+15.5 -110	47.5 -118	+500	-720
Fliff	+14.5 -105	47.5 -120	+520	-810
Hard Rock Bet	+14.5 -105	47.5 -115	+550	-850
LowVig.ag	+14.5 -101	47.5 -108	+520	-725
MyBookie.ag	+15 -110	48 -110	+480	-767
Pinnacle	+15.5 -107	48 +100	+565	-793
theScore Bet	+15.5 -110	47.5 -115	+475	-750

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami -15.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Miami): BetMGM -15.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · Kalshi -14.5 at 52¢ (-2.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics -15.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars -15.5 at -112 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Miami to win · -750 at DraftKings

We make it 85 in 100 to win, the price says 88, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Miami to win): BetMGM -700 (-2.6%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -719 (-2.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars -750 (-3.3%) · Fanatics -800 (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Under 48.0 · -110

SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 47.5 at -104 (0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.9%) · Fanatics or Caesars 47.5 at -110 (-1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 75°F, 74% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +15.5 (the market moved 2.2 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $23 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMiami by 15.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+18.5	+797
FPI	+16.0	+581
Sagarin	+8.0	+284
Massey	+9.5	+319
Market (19 books)	+15.5	+696

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	45.3

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Miami Hurricanes -15.5	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	Miami Hurricanes ML	-750	-562	priced at 88 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 19:50; total has moved down 4.7.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USC

CFB 6:30pm

USC -9

should be USC -9 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Washington than the bookmore USC →

Market

USC by 9TOM, -113

The Four

SP+

USC by 8

FPI

USC by 12.5

Sagarin

USC by 10.5

Massey

USC by 6

Nasty Number

USC by 90.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

58TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

59.61.6 pts over the market

Massey

56.21.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

57.9on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 59 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Washington ML
TOM	-9 -113	58 -115	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -112 51¢	-360 77¢	+280 25¢
Pinnacle	-9 -107	57.5 -115	-362	+296

All 22 books

	USC spread	Total (over)	USC ML	Washington ML
TOM	-9 -113	58 -115	-370	+280
Kalshi	-9.5 -107 50¢	57.5 -112 51¢	-360 77¢	+280 25¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -114	58.5 -108	-400	+310
BetAnything	-9 -110	58 -110	-375	+297
BetMGM	-8.5 -118	58.5 -105	-375	+290
BetOnline.ag	-9 -113	58 -115	-370	+296
betPARX	-9.5 -114	58.5 -108	-400	+310
BetRivers	-9.5 -115	58.5 -109	-420	+310
BetUS	-9.5 -110	58 -110	-365	+293
Bovada	-9 -110	58 -110	-370	+285
Caesars	-9 -108	58 -112	-360	+285
Courtside	-8.5 -112	58.5 -103	-350	+293
DraftKings	-8.5 -112	58.5 -105	-360	+285
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 50¢ -108 all-in	57.5 52¢ -117 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in	25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics	-9.5 -110	58 -110	-375	+290
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	58.5 -105	-350	+275
Fliff	-8.5 -120	57.5 -125	-385	+285
Hard Rock Bet	-9.5 -115	58.5 -110	-400	+300
LowVig.ag	-9 -109	58 -114	-370	+296
MyBookie.ag	-9 -110	58 -110	-350	+265
Pinnacle	-9 -107	57.5 -115	-362	+296
theScore Bet	-9.5 -105	57.5 -120	-340	+270

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

USC -8.5 · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (USC): DraftKings Predictions -8.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.5%) · Caesars -9 at -108 (-1.9%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 50¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings -8.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -9.5 at -110 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

USC to win · -370 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (USC to win): FanDuel -350 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-2.5%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars -360 (-2.8%) · TOM -370 (-3.2%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -375 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 58.0 · -105 at TOM

SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 58 at -105 (-0.8%) · Caesars 58 at -108 (-1.5%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 58.5 at -115 (-1.9%) · Fanatics 58 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (-2.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 100°F.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward USC).

Full detail

We settle onUSC by 930% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-8.0	-286
FPI	-12.5	-421
Sagarin	-10.5	-352
Massey	-6.0	-200
Market (19 books)	-9.0	-354

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	58.0	57.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	USC Trojans -8.5	-108	-102	-1.5%
Moneyline	USC Trojans ML	-370	-308	-3.2%
Total	Under 58.0	-105	-102	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.6 toward USC Trojans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 4.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at Colorado

CFB 6:31pm

Texas Tech -13.5

should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Colorado →

Market

Texas Tech by 13.5TOM, -107

The Four

SP+

Texas Tech by 21.5

FPI

Texas Tech by 15.5

Sagarin

Texas Tech by 10.5

Massey

Texas Tech by 13

Nasty Number

Texas Tech by 140.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texas Tech by 12.5 to Texas Tech by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

49.20.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.10.6 pts over the market

Nasty Number

49.7on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Colorado spread	Total (over)	Colorado ML	Texas Tech ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	49.5 -110	+430	-600
Kalshi	+13.5 -112 51¢	50.5 +105 47¢	+426 18¢	-524 83¢
Pinnacle	+13.5 -104	49.5 -105	+432	-568

All 22 books

	Colorado spread	Total (over)	Colorado ML	Texas Tech ML
TOM	+13.5 -107	49.5 -110	+430	-600
Kalshi	+13.5 -112 51¢	50.5 +105 47¢	+426 18¢	-524 83¢
Bally Bet	+13 -110	49.5 -113	+400	-560
BetAnything	+13.5 -110	49.5 -110	+450	-600
BetMGM	+13.5 -110	49.5 -108	+425	-550
BetOnline.ag	+13.5 -107	49.5 -110	+446	-600
betPARX	+13 -110	49.5 -113	+400	-560
BetRivers	+13 -112	49.5 -114	+390	-560
BetUS	+13 -110	49 -110	+425	-550
Bovada	+13.5 -110	49.5 -105	+410	-585
Caesars	+13.5 -109	49.5 -109	+400	-560
Courtside	+13.5 -108	49.5 -106	+439	-553
DraftKings	+13.5 -110	49.5 -108	+425	-575
DraftKings Predictions	+13.5 51¢ -113 all-in	48.5 54¢ -127 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in	83¢ -566 all-in
Fanatics	+13.5 -105	49.5 -110	+425	-575
FanDuel	+13.5 -114	50.5 -105	+390	-530
Fliff	+13.5 -115	49.5 -115	+410	-590
Hard Rock Bet	+13.5 -110	49.5 -110	+400	-550
LowVig.ag	+13.5 -103	49.5 -108	+446	-600
MyBookie.ag	+13.5 -110	49 -110	+420	-599
Pinnacle	+13.5 -104	49.5 -105	+432	-568
theScore Bet	+13.5 -115	49.5 -110	+400	-600

Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -13.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas Tech): FanDuel -13.5 at -106 (-0.0%) · Kalshi or BetMGM -13.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars -13.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM -13.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-1.5%) · Fanatics -13.5 at -115 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Texas Tech to win · -524 (83¢) at Kalshi

We make it 82 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas Tech to win): Kalshi or FanDuel -524 (-1.5%) · BetMGM -550 (-2.1%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions -560 (83¢ on the app) (-2.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -575 (-2.7%) · TOM -600 (-3.2%).

Off the band

the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 50.5 at 47¢ (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · Caesars 49.5 at -109 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 49.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F.

Full detail

We settle onTexas Tech by 1421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+21.5	+1116
FPI	+15.5	+556
Sagarin	+10.5	+368
Massey	+13.0	+428
Market (19 books)	+13.5	+449

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	49.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Tech Red Raiders -13.5	-106	-106	-0.0%
Moneyline	Texas Tech Red Raiders ML	-524	-471	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at Rutgers

CFB 7:00pm

Indiana -24

should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Rutgers →

Market

Indiana by 24TOM, -110

The Four

SP+

Indiana by 26.5

FPI

Indiana by 26

Sagarin

Indiana by 16.5

Massey

Indiana by 22

Nasty Number

Indiana by 24.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Indiana by 23.5 to Indiana by 24. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57TOM

The Four

SP+ pace

64.67.6 pts over the market

Massey

55.61.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

60.13.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 55.5 to 57. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Rutgers spread	Total (over)	Rutgers ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+24 -110	57 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -107 50¢	+1464 6¢	-2042 95¢
Pinnacle	+24.5 -112	57 -106	+1221	-2237

All 22 books

	Rutgers spread	Total (over)	Rutgers ML	Indiana ML
TOM	+24 -110	57 -115	—	—
Kalshi	—	57.5 -107 50¢	+1464 6¢	-2042 95¢
Bally Bet	+24.5 -110	56.5 -108	+1300	—
BetAnything	+24 -105	56.5 -110	+1050	-2500
BetMGM	+24 -108	56.5 -110	+1300	-2500
BetOnline.ag	+24 -110	57 -115	+1156	-2500
betPARX	+24.5 -110	56.5 -108	+1300	—
BetRivers	+24.5 -112	56.5 -109	+1300	—
BetUS	+24 -110	56.5 -110	+1150	-2400
Bovada	+24 -105	57 -110	+1000	-2500
Caesars	+24.5 -114	57.5 -103	+1200	—
Courtside	+24.5 -113	56.5 -110	+1290	-2122
DraftKings	+24.5 -115	56.5 -112	+1200	-2400
DraftKings Predictions	+24.5 52¢ -117 all-in	57.5 51¢ -113 all-in	7¢ +1011 all-in	95¢ -3233 all-in
Fanatics	+24.5 -115	57 -110	+1200	-2200
FanDuel	+24.5 -115	56.5 -110	+1200	-3000
Fliff	+24.5 -120	56.5 -120	+1220	—
Hard Rock Bet	+24.5 -110	56.5 -110	+1300	—
LowVig.ag	+24 -102	57 -114	+1156	-2500
MyBookie.ag	+24 -110	56.5 -110	+1066	-2524
Pinnacle	+24.5 -112	57 -106	+1221	-2237
theScore Bet	+24.5 -115	56.5 -105	+1100	-2500

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -24.0 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Indiana): BetMGM or TOM -24 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions, FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics -24.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.5%) · Caesars -24.5 at -106 (-1.0%).

Blowout line

Indiana to win · -2500 at DraftKings

We make it 95 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Kalshi 95¢ (-0.8%) · Fanatics -2200 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -2400 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -3000 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 95¢ on the app (-3233 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

Off the band

the Over 57.0 · -115 at TOM

SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · Caesars 57.5 at -103 (-0.7%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +23.5, now +24.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Indiana).

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 24.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+26.5	+2008
FPI	+26.0	+1954
Sagarin	+16.5	+594
Massey	+22.0	+1200
Market (19 books)	+24.0	+2091

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.0	60.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Indiana Hoosiers -24.0	-110	-110	+0.0%
Moneyline	Indiana Hoosiers ML	-2500	-1732	priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.0	-115	-106	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Indiana Hoosiers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: spread +24.0 here against +24.4 consensus.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

McNeese State Cowboys at LSU TigersMcNeese at LSU

CFB 6:45pm

No rating

the ratings don't cover this game

No ratingBuck's case ›

No view. The ratings don't cover this game, so there's nothing to compare the line against.

The spread

← more McNeese than the bookmore LSU →

Market

LSU by 53

The Four

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	McNeese ML
Kalshi	—	61.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Pinnacle	-53 -110	62 -105	—	—

All 18 books

	LSU spread	Total (over)	LSU ML	McNeese ML
Kalshi	—	61.5 -116 52¢	—	—
Bally Bet	-53.5 -108	62 -113	—	—
BetMGM	-53.5 -108	61.5 -120	—	—
BetOnline.ag	-53 -110	62.5 -110	—	—
betPARX	-53.5 -108	62 -113	—	—
BetRivers	-53.5 -109	62 -114	—	—
Bovada	-53 -110	61.5 -115	—	—
Caesars	-53.5 -107	62.5 -104	—	—
Courtside	-52.5 -118	62.5 -103	—	—
DraftKings	-53.5 -105	61.5 -120	—	—
DraftKings Predictions	-49.5 62¢ -178 all-in	60.5 55¢ -132 all-in	—	—
Fanatics	-53 -110	62 -105	—	—
FanDuel	-53.5 -110	61.5 -114	—	—
Fliff	-53.5 -115	61.5 -125	—	—
Hard Rock Bet	-53.5 -110	62.5 -105	—	—
LowVig.ag	-53 -110	62.5 -110	—	—
Pinnacle	-53 -110	62 -105	—	—
theScore Bet	-53.5 +100	61.5 -115	—	—

Marked: best for the LSU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 66% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -48.5, now -53.0 (the market moved 4.6 toward LSU).

Full detail

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	doesn't rate McNeese
FPI	doesn't rate McNeese
Sagarin	doesn't rate McNeese
Massey	rates McNeese and LSU on different scales
Market (16 books)	-53.0	—

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	62.0	—

Line move: spread has moved 4.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-30 09:06; total has moved up 0.7.

No usable prices or projections for this game.

Tomorrow

14 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.

GameThe call

Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders

NFL tomorrow 8:30am · neutral

Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel

Don't chase · now Commanders to win · +188 at FanDuel

Nasty Dog · called at +184Don't chaseBuck's case ›

Nasty Dog. Posted Friday at Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel. Don't bet this at today's number. We posted Commanders to win +184 at FanDuel on Friday; now Commanders to win · +188 at FanDuel. The number hasn't moved but the price is 4 cents better, from +184 to +188, and at +188 the edge is 0.9%, under the 2.5% a posted pick has to keep. If you already have it, you're set. It's a play again at +184 or better. Market says Colts by 4, the Nasty Number says Colts by 4.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →

Market

Colts by 4TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Colts by 3

FPI

Colts by 4

Sagarin

Colts by 2.5

Massey

Colts by 3.5

Nasty Number

Colts by 40.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Colts by 3 to Colts by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

47.5TOM

The Four

Massey

52.24.7 pts over the market

FPI

47.6on the market

Nasty Number

49.92.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
TOM	+4 -108	47.5 -105	+166	-196
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Pinnacle	+4 -104	47.5 -105	+175	-201

All 26 books

	Commanders spread	Total (over)	Commanders ML	Colts ML
TOM	+4 -108	47.5 -105	+166	-196
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -107 50¢	+174 35¢	-208 66¢
Bally Bet	+4.5 -114	47.5 -110	+175	-215
BetAnything	+4.5 -110	47.5 -110	+175	-215
BetMGM	+4 -110	47.5 -105	+175	-210
BetOnline.ag	+4 -108	47.5 -105	+171	-196
betPARX	+4.5 -114	47.5 -110	+175	-215
BetRivers	+4 -107	47.5 -110	+175	-215
BetUS	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+167	-195
Bovada	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+175	-210
Caesars	+4.5 -117	47.5 -113	+179	-213
Courtside	+4.5 -115	47.5 -106	+174	-200
DraftKings	+4.5 -115	47.5 -108	+170	-205
DraftKings Predictions	+4.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 47¢ +104 all-in	36¢ +163 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics	+4 -110	47.5 -105	+170	-205
FanDuel	+3.5 +100	47.5 -106	+188	-225
Fliff	+4.5 -120	47.5 -115	+165	-215
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+180	-220
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+180	-220
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+180	-220
LowVig.ag	+4 -103	47.5 -102	+171	-196
MyBookie.ag	+4 -110	47.5 -110	+172	-214
Pinnacle	+4 -104	47.5 -105	+175	-201
Polymarket	+4.5 -104	47.5	+186	-194
ReBet	+4.5 -110	47.5 -110	+176	-210
theScore Bet	+4 -110	47.5 -105	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Commanders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +4.0 · -108 at TOM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Commanders): FanDuel +3.5 at +100 (-0.9%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 51¢ (-0.9%) · TOM +4 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +4 at -110 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Commanders to win · +188 at FanDuel

We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Commanders to win): FanDuel +188 (0.9%) · Caesars +179 (-0.2%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +175 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +170 (-1.4%) · TOM +166 (-2.0%).

The call

the Over 47.5 · -105 at TOM

Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 47.5 at -105 (1.0%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -106 (0.7%) · Kalshi or DraftKings 47.5 at -107 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (0.2%) · Caesars 47.5 at -113 (-0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $220 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Jayden Daniels (Commanders), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Rachaad White (RB, Commanders), Alec Pierce (WR, Colts), Carson Towt (TE, Colts) and 3 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: moneyline +173 here against +192 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onColts by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+3.0	+137
FPI	+4.0	+113
Sagarin	+2.5	-100
Massey	+3.5	+108
Market (22 books)	+4.0	+173

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.5	49.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	Washington Commanders ML	+188	+181	+0.9%
Spread	Washington Commanders +4.0	-108	-102	-1.4%
Total	Over 47.5	-105	-109	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: moneyline +173 here against +192 consensus.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Giants +2.5

should be Giants +1 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was -2.5

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Giants +2.5: all 4 ratings our side, 3.3% after the price; the NFL cap keeps it a watch. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the NFL cap: in the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings, until the record earns them. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →

Market

Cardinals by 2.5TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Giants by 3.56.2 pts our side

FPI

a pick'em2.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Giants by 6.58.8 pts our side

Massey

a pick'em2.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

Cardinals by 11.3 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Giants. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 3 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 3 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Giants is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

44TOM

The Four

Massey

44.40.4 pts over the market

FPI

43.20.8 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.8on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 43.5 to 44. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	+2.5 -107	44 -116	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+124 43¢	-143 57¢
Pinnacle	+2.5 +106	44.5 -103	+131	-148

All 26 books

	Giants spread	Total (over)	Giants ML	Cardinals ML
TOM	+2.5 -107	44 -116	+120	-145
Kalshi	+2.5 -107 50¢	44.5 -103 49¢	+124 43¢	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+2.5 -108	44.5 -109	+112	-136
BetAnything	+3 -115	44.5 -110	+130	-150
BetMGM	+2.5 -105	44 -120	+120	-145
BetOnline.ag	+2.5 -107	44 -116	+125	-145
betPARX	+2.5 -108	44.5 -109	+112	-136
BetRivers	+2.5 -108	44.5 -109	+112	-136
BetUS	+2 +100	44 -116	+125	-145
Bovada	+3 -115	44 -115	+130	-150
Caesars	+2.5 -109	44.5 -105	+116	-137
Courtside	+2.5 -108	44.5 -106	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -108	44.5 -108	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in	45.5 48¢ -100 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	58¢ -150 all-in
Fanatics	+2.5 +100	44.5 -105	+120	-145
FanDuel	+2.5 -110	44.5 -105	+118	-138
Fliff	+2.5 -110	44.5 -105	+120	-150
Hard Rock Bet	+2.5 -105	44 -115	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+2.5 -105	44 -115	+120	-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+2.5 -105	44 -115	+120	-140
LowVig.ag	+2.5 -102	44 -114	+125	-145
MyBookie.ag	+2.5 -105	44.5 -110	+120	-147
Pinnacle	+2.5 +106	44.5 -103	+131	-148
Polymarket	+2.5 +104	43.5	+127	-133
ReBet	+2.5 -105	44.5 -109	+122	-144
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	44.5 +100	+130	-150

Marked: best for Giants, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +2.5 · +100 at Fanatics

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Giants): Fanatics +2.5 at +100 (3.3%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (2.1%) · TOM or Kalshi +2.5 at -107 (1.6%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (1.4%) · Caesars +2.5 at -109 (1.1%).

A Little Nasty

Giants to win · +120 at DraftKings

We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Giants to win): Kalshi 43¢ (3.6%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +120 (2.8%) · FanDuel +118 (2.4%) · Caesars +116 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (1.2%).

Not Nasty

the Over 44.0 · -116 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 44.5 at 49¢ (-1.6%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Fanatics 44.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -108 (-2.7%) · TOM 44 at -116 (-3.0%) · BetMGM 44 at -120 (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Giants +2.5 · +100 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now +2.5. The market has moved 4.9 away from Giants, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 43.5, only $215 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jaxson Dart (Giants), Injured Reserve. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants), Will Johnson (CB, Cardinals) and 5 more.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onCardinals by 130% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-3.5	-178
FPI	PK	-100
Sagarin	-6.5	-251
Massey	PK	-100
Market (22 books)	+2.5	+125

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	44.0	43.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New York Giants +2.5	+100	-114	+3.3%
Moneyline	New York Giants ML	+120	+107	+2.8%
Total	Over 44.0	-116	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.9 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 44.0 here against 44.4 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Jaguars +3

should be Jaguars +2 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics

Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›

Damn Near Nasty. Jaguars +3.0: all 4 ratings our side, 3.2% after the price, the Cut is 4% for this Sauce. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →

Market

Bengals by 2.5TOM, -119

The Four

nfelo

Bengals by 20.4 pts our side

FPI

Jaguars by 0.53.2 pts our side

Sagarin

Bengals by 11.6 pts our side

Massey

Jaguars by 13.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Bengals by 20.7 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.92.6 pts under the market

FPI

49.91.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.42.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	51.5 -110	-142	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	51.5 -112 51¢	-143 57¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -123	51 -119	-154	+136

All 26 books

	Bengals spread	Total (over)	Bengals ML	Jaguars ML
TOM	-2.5 -119	51.5 -110	-142	+117
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	51.5 -112 51¢	-143 57¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -115	51.5 -109	-141	+116
BetAnything	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-145	+125
BetMGM	-2.5 -115	51.5 -110	-145	+120
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -119	51.5 -110	-142	+122
betPARX	-2.5 -115	51.5 -109	-141	+116
BetRivers	-2.5 -115	51.5 -109	-141	+116
BetUS	-2 -120	51.5 -110	-140	+120
Bovada	-3 -105	51.5 -115	-160	+135
Caesars	-2.5 -118	51.5 -107	-141	+119
Courtside	-2.5 -115	51.5 +100	-139	+122
DraftKings	-2.5 -115	51.5 -102	-142	+120
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in	51.5 52¢ -117 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	51.5 -110	-150	+125
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	51.5 -105	-142	+120
Fliff	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -113	51.5 -107	-142	+122
MyBookie.ag	-2.5 -115	51.5 -110	-150	+122
Pinnacle	-2.5 -123	51 -119	-154	+136
Polymarket	-2.5 -113	51.5 -104	-138	+133
ReBet	-2.5 -133	51.5 -110	-147	+124
theScore Bet	-2.5 -120	51.5 -110	-145	+125

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics

Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Jaguars): Fanatics +3 at -115 (3.2%) · TOM +2.5 at -101 (1.7%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (1.5%) · Caesars or Kalshi +2.5 at -103 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (0.9%).

A Little Nasty

Jaguars to win · +125 at Fanatics

We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): Fanatics or Kalshi +125 (2.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM +120 (1.1%) · Caesars +119 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM +117 (44¢ on the app) (0.5%).

Not Nasty

the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi or BetMGM 51.5 at -107 (0.7%) · Fanatics or TOM 51.5 at -110 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or Caesars 51.5 at -113 (51¢ on the app) (-0.6%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.7%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Jaguars +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 69°F.

Also out: Sam Mustipher (C, Jaguars), Jalen Davis (CB, Bengals), Kyle Dugger (S, Bengals) and 1 more.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBengals by 230% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.0	-119
FPI	+0.5	+102
Sagarin	-1.0	-104
Massey	+1.0	+108
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-136

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Jacksonville Jaguars +3.0	-115	-131	+3.2%
Moneyline	Jacksonville Jaguars ML	+125	+115	+2.1%
Total	Under 51.5	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.2 consensus.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

49ers to win

our data says 61 in 100 · -145

A Little Nasty · 49ersBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, 49ers. Market says 49ers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3. At -145 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →

Market

49ers by 2.5TOM, -118

The Four

nfelo

49ers by 41.6 pts our side

FPI

49ers by 8.56.1 pts our side

Sagarin

49ers by 41.5 pts our side

Massey

49ers by 52.6 pts our side

Nasty Number

49ers by 30.6 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in 49ers's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

45.22.8 pts under the market

FPI

49.71.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

47.50.5 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 46.5 to 48. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-2.5 -118	48 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Pinnacle	-2.5 -111	48.5 +100	-142	+126

All 26 books

	49ers spread	Total (over)	49ers ML	Broncos ML
TOM	-2.5 -118	48 -110	-145	+120
Kalshi	-2.5 -116 52¢	48.5 -103 49¢	-148 58¢	+124 43¢
Bally Bet	-2.5 -114	47.5 -113	-137	+112
BetAnything	-2.5 -115	48 -110	-150	+130
BetMGM	-2.5 -118	48 -108	-145	+125
BetOnline.ag	-2.5 -118	48 -110	-145	+125
betPARX	-2.5 -114	47.5 -113	-137	+112
BetRivers	-2.5 -114	47.5 -113	-137	+112
BetUS	-2 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
Bovada	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
Caesars	-2.5 -120	48 -109	-148	+125
Courtside	-3 +102	48.5 -108	-145	+127
DraftKings	-3 +100	47.5 -115	-148	+124
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 49¢ -104 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in	44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics	-2.5 -115	48 -110	-145	+120
FanDuel	-2.5 -115	47.5 -112	-144	+124
Fliff	-2.5 -120	47.5 -115	-155	+125
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -120	48 -110	-145	+125
LowVig.ag	-2.5 -114	48 -107	-145	+125
MyBookie.ag	-3 +100	48 -110	-160	+130
Pinnacle	-2.5 -111	48.5 +100	-142	+126
Polymarket	-2.5 -113	47.5 -108	-138	+133
ReBet	-2.5 -133	47.5 -120	-147	+125
theScore Bet	-2.5 -115	47.5 -115	-140	+120

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -2.5 · -118 at BetMGM

Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (49ers): FanDuel, Fanatics or Kalshi -2.5 at -115 (2.1%) · BetMGM or TOM -2.5 at -118 (1.4%) · DraftKings -3 at +100 (1.4%) · Caesars -2.5 at -120 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.5%).

Not Nasty

49ers to win · -145 at FanDuel

We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (49ers to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -144 (1.9%) · DraftKings, Caesars or Kalshi -148 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-0.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 48.5 at 52¢ (-2.1%) · Caesars, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.3%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -108 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers to win · -145 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 89°F.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.5. The market has moved 0.5 away from 49ers, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Jonah Coleman (RB, Broncos), Christian Kirk (WR, 49ers), Frank Crum (OT, Broncos) and 4 more.

Full detail

We settle on49ers by 330% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-4.0	-185
FPI	-8.5	-351
Sagarin	-4.0	-183
Massey	-5.0	-210
Market (22 books)	-2.5	-139

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	47.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Moneyline	San Francisco 49ers ML	-145	-156	+1.7%
Spread	San Francisco 49ers -2.5	-118	-125	+1.4%
Total	Under 48.0	-110	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Denver Broncos since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Over 42.5Moved our way · 2 pts

should be 43.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 46

A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Over 42.5. Massey and FPI say over by 3.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Rams by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →

Market

Rams by 3.5TOM, -105

The Four

nfelo

Rams by 1.52.2 pts our side

FPI

Rams by 30.6 pts our side

Sagarin

Rams by 2.51.2 pts our side

Massey

Rams by 12.7 pts our side

Nasty Number

Rams by 30.4 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Eagles. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Eagles's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM, Over -115

The Four

Massey

45.93.4 pts over the market

FPI

45.22.7 pts over the market

Nasty Number

45.53 pts over the market

Over 42.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	42.5 -115	+160	-190
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -116 52¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -105	43.5 +102	+164	-188

All 26 books

	Eagles spread	Total (over)	Eagles ML	Rams ML
TOM	+3.5 -105	42.5 -115	+160	-190
Kalshi	+3.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -116 52¢	+159 37¢	-191 64¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -109	42.5 -114	+155	-190
BetAnything	+3.5 -110	42.5 -110	+165	-190
BetMGM	+3.5 -105	42.5 -110	+160	-190
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -105	42.5 -115	+165	-190
betPARX	+3.5 -109	42.5 -114	+155	-190
BetRivers	+3.5 -109	42.5 -114	+155	-190
BetUS	+3.5 -105	42.5 -110	+163	-190
Bovada	+3.5 -110	43 -110	+165	-195
Caesars	+3.5 -107	42.5 -115	+158	-190
Courtside	+3.5 -108	42.5 -110	+157	-181
DraftKings	+3.5 -108	42.5 -112	+154	-185
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 54¢ -127 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in	65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -110	43 -110	+160	-195
FanDuel	+3.5 -105	43.5 -105	+160	-190
Fliff	+3.5 -110	43.5 -105	+160	-210
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -110	42.5 -115	+160	-195
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -110	42.5 -115	+160	-195
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -110	42.5 -115	+160	-195
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -104	42.5 -113	+165	-190
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	43 -110	+153	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -105	43.5 +102	+164	-188
Polymarket	+3.5 -104	42.5	+170	-178
ReBet	+3.5 -110	43.5 -109	+157	-186
theScore Bet	+3.5 -105	42.5 -120	+160	-190

Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +3.5 · -105 at FanDuel

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +3.5 at -105 (1.8%) · Caesars or Kalshi +3.5 at -107 (1.4%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -108 (1.1%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Eagles to win · +160 at FanDuel

We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM +160 (0.6%) · Kalshi or Caesars +159 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (0.1%) · DraftKings +154 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 42.5 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 45. That's 3.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 42.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -112 (0.6%) · Caesars, TOM or Kalshi 42.5 at -115 (-0.1%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -105 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 42.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 65°F, 45% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Eagles, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $70 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Terrance Ferguson (TE, Rams) and 6 more.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onRams by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+1.5	+109
FPI	+3.0	+142
Sagarin	+2.5	+122
Massey	+1.0	+103
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	45.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Philadelphia Eagles +3.5	-105	-113	+1.8%
Moneyline	Philadelphia Eagles ML	+160	+156	+0.6%
Total	Over 42.5	-115	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Los Angeles Rams since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.9.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 43.1 consensus.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Under 48

should be 47 · getting 1 pt · was 45.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →

Market

Chiefs by 4.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Chiefs by 4.5

FPI

Chiefs by 5

Sagarin

Chiefs by 4

Massey

Chiefs by 3

Nasty Number

Chiefs by 4.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Under -112

The Four

Massey

435 pts under the market

FPI

44.63.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.84.2 pts under the market

Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+4.5 -110	48 -108	+180	-220
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Pinnacle	+4.5 -106	48 -102	+191	-222

All 26 books

	Raiders spread	Total (over)	Raiders ML	Chiefs ML
TOM	+4.5 -110	48 -108	+180	-220
Kalshi	+4.5 -112 51¢	47.5 -107 50¢	+181 34¢	-218 67¢
Bally Bet	+5 -112	47.5 -110	+180	-220
BetAnything	+4.5 -110	48 -110	+175	-215
BetMGM	+4.5 -108	47.5 -110	+185	-225
BetOnline.ag	+4.5 -110	48 -108	+186	-220
betPARX	+5 -112	47.5 -110	+180	-220
BetRivers	+5 -112	47.5 -110	+180	-220
BetUS	+4.5 -110	48 -110	+185	-220
Bovada	+4.5 -110	47.5 -115	+190	-230
Caesars	+4.5 -108	48 -107	+177	-213
Courtside	+4.5 -108	47.5 -113	+184	-213
DraftKings	+4.5 -108	47.5 -115	+180	-218
DraftKings Predictions	+4.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	36¢ +163 all-in	67¢ -223 all-in
Fanatics	+4.5 -110	48 -110	+185	-225
FanDuel	+4.5 -108	47.5 -110	+188	-225
Fliff	+4.5 -115	47.5 -115	+175	-235
Hard Rock Bet	+5 -110	47.5 -110	+190	-230
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+5 -110	47.5 -110	+190	-230
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+5 -110	47.5 -110	+190	-230
LowVig.ag	+4.5 -105	48 -105	+186	-220
MyBookie.ag	+4.5 -110	48 -110	+179	-224
Pinnacle	+4.5 -106	48 -102	+191	-222
Polymarket	+4.5 -104	46.5 -117	+194	-203
ReBet	+4.5 -109	47.5 -120	+184	-220
theScore Bet	+4.5 -110	47.5 -110	+180	-215

Marked: best for the Raiders side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -4.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Chiefs): Kalshi -4.5 at 50¢ (-1.6%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-2.6%).

Not Nasty

Chiefs to win · -220 at DraftKings

We make it 66 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 66 cents fair, a play under 62. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): Caesars -213 (-1.8%) · Kalshi or DraftKings -218 (-2.3%) · TOM -220 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (-2.8%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics -225 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -112 at TOM

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 45. That's 4.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 48 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (0.3%) · TOM 48 at -112 (0.3%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -112 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Raiders).

Also out: Dont'e Thornton Jr. (WR, Raiders), Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs) and 6 more.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +207 consensus.

Polymarket has the total at 46.5 while Pinnacle is at 48. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onChiefs by 4.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+4.5	+197
FPI	+5.0	+201
Sagarin	+4.0	+181
Massey	+3.0	+145
Market (22 books)	+4.5	+188

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	43.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kansas City Chiefs -4.5	-110	-101	-2.2%
Moneyline	Kansas City Chiefs ML	-220	-196	-2.5%
Total	Under 48.0	-112	-113	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.3.

TOM: moneyline +188 here against +207 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Cowboys +3

should be Cowboys +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 3, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →

Market

Texans by 3TOM, -111

The Four

nfelo

Texans by 20.9 pts our side

FPI

Cowboys by 13.8 pts our side

Sagarin

Texans by 0.52.6 pts our side

Massey

Texans by 3on the market

Nasty Number

Texans by 2.50.5 pts off the market

All 4 systems lean Cowboys. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Cowboys is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM

The Four

Massey

49.31.3 pts over the market

FPI

48on the market

Nasty Number

48.60.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
TOM	-3 -111	48 -110	-162	+132
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
Pinnacle	-3 +100	48 -110	-152	+134

All 26 books

	Texans spread	Total (over)	Texans ML	Cowboys ML
TOM	-3 -111	48 -110	-162	+132
Kalshi	-2.5 -126 54¢	48.5 -107 50¢	-161 60¢	+129 42¢
Bally Bet	-3 -108	48 -109	-155	+125
BetAnything	-3 -115	48 -110	-160	+140
BetMGM	-3 -110	48 -108	-160	+135
BetOnline.ag	-3 -111	48 -110	-162	+142
betPARX	-3 -108	48 -109	-155	+125
BetRivers	-3 -108	48 -109	-155	+125
BetUS	-3 -110	48 -110	-160	+138
Bovada	-3 -105	48 -115	-150	+130
Caesars	-2.5 -135	48.5 -106	-159	+135
Courtside	-3 -108	48.5 -103	-159	+139
DraftKings	-3 -110	48.5 -105	-162	+136
DraftKings Predictions	-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 50¢ -108 all-in	60¢ -163 all-in	42¢ +127 all-in
Fanatics	-3 -105	48 -110	-155	+130
FanDuel	-3 -110	47.5 -115	-154	+130
Fliff	-2.5 -130	48.5 -110	-150	+120
Hard Rock Bet	-3 -105	48 -110	-155	+130
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3 -105	48 -110	-155	+130
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3 -105	48 -110	-155	+130
LowVig.ag	-3 -106	48 -107	-162	+142
MyBookie.ag	-3 -110	48 -110	-162	+131
Pinnacle	-3 +100	48 -110	-152	+134
Polymarket	-2.5 -117	48.5 +104	-144	+138
ReBet	-3.5 +100	47.5 -120	-158	+134
theScore Bet	-3 -110	48.5 -120	-155	+135

Marked: best for Cowboys, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +3.0 · -109 at TOM

Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Cowboys): BetMGM +3 at -108 (2.8%) · TOM +3 at -109 (2.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +3 at -110 (2.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at +108 (2.0%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 47¢ (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Cowboys to win · +132 at TOM

We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +136 (2.1%) · TOM +132 (1.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +130 (1.0%) · Kalshi 42¢ (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (0.4%).

Not Nasty

the Over 48.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 48. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 48 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -105 (-2.1%) · Caesars 48.5 at -106 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cowboys +3.0 · -109 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Also out: British Brooks (RB, Texans), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.0	-120
FPI	+1.0	+104
Sagarin	-0.5	-101
Massey	-3.0	-149
Market (22 books)	-3.0	-155

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	48.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Dallas Cowboys +3.0	-109	-121	+2.5%
Moneyline	Dallas Cowboys ML	+132	+125	+1.3%
Total	Over 48.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Ravens -11.5

should be Ravens -11.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →

Market

Ravens by 11.5TOM, -107

The Four

nfelo

Ravens by 11

FPI

Ravens by 11.5

Sagarin

Ravens by 10.5

Massey

Ravens by 11

Nasty Number

Ravens by 11.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

463.5 pts over the market

FPI

45.53 pts over the market

Weather

-1.075% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

44.82.3 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
TOM	-11.5 -107	42.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -107 50¢	-609 85¢	+530 15¢
Pinnacle	-11.5 -108	42.5 -106	-687	+504

All 26 books

	Ravens spread	Total (over)	Ravens ML	Titans ML
TOM	-11.5 -107	42.5 -108	—	—
Kalshi	-11.5 -107 50¢	42.5 -107 50¢	-609 85¢	+530 15¢
Bally Bet	-11.5 -112	43 -109	-715	+500
BetAnything	-11.5 -110	42.5 -110	-750	+520
BetMGM	-12 -112	42.5 -110	-700	+525
BetOnline.ag	-11.5 -107	42.5 -108	-680	+494
betPARX	-11.5 -112	43 -109	-715	+500
BetRivers	-11.5 -112	43 -109	-715	+500
BetUS	-11.5 -110	42.5 -110	-680	+490
Bovada	-11.5 -110	42.5 -110	-700	+475
Caesars	-11.5 -106	42.5 -114	-700	+480
Courtside	-11.5 -106	42.5 -106	-623	+487
DraftKings	-11.5 -108	42.5 -108	-650	+470
DraftKings Predictions	-11.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 51¢ -113 all-in	87¢ -809 all-in	16¢ +456 all-in
Fanatics	-11.5 -110	42.5 -110	-700	+500
FanDuel	-11.5 -114	42.5 -118	-800	+560
Fliff	-11.5 -115	42.5 -115	-825	+495
Hard Rock Bet	-12 -110	42.5 -115	-800	+525
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-12 -110	42.5 -115	-800	+525
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-12 -110	42.5 -115	-800	+525
LowVig.ag	-11.5 -105	42.5 -105	-680	+494
MyBookie.ag	-11.5 -110	42.5 -110	-800	+530
Pinnacle	-11.5 -108	42.5 -106	-687	+504
Polymarket	-10.5 -113	42.5	-614	+567
ReBet	-12.5 -109	42.5 -110	-800	+550
theScore Bet	-11.5 -105	42.5 -110	-900	+550

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +11.5 · -106 at FanDuel

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Titans): FanDuel +11.5 at -106 (-1.3%) · Fanatics +11.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (-2.5%) · Caesars or TOM +11.5 at -113 (-2.9%) · BetMGM +12 at -118 (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

Titans to win · +560 at FanDuel

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 15, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel +560 (3.3%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +530 (2.6%) · Fanatics +500 (1.8%) · Caesars +480 (1.2%) · DraftKings +470 (0.9%).

Off the band

the Over 42.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi, DraftKings or TOM 42.5 at -107 (1.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 42.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.1%) · Caesars 42.5 at -114 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -118 (-1.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 75% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.2 toward Ravens).

Kalshi thin: Over 42.5, only $139 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jovaughn Gwyn (G, Ravens), Jackson Slater (G, Titans), Fernando Carmona (G, Titans) and 2 more.

Full detail

We settle onRavens by 11.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-11.0	-437
FPI	-11.5	-442
Sagarin	-10.5	-433
Massey	-11.0	-434
Market (22 books)	-11.5	-636

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	44.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tennessee Titans +11.5	-106	-101	-1.3%
Moneyline	Tennessee Titans ML	+560	+442	priced at 15 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 42.5	-108	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bills -7

should be Bills -7 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7, the Nasty Number says Bills by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →

Market

Bills by 7TOM, -104

The Four

nfelo

Bills by 6.5

FPI

Bills by 6.5

Sagarin

Bills by 5

Massey

Bills by 6

Nasty Number

Bills by 70.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50TOM

The Four

Massey

46.33.7 pts under the market

FPI

49.50.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.92.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-7 -104	50 -112	-325	+250
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -103 49¢	-306 74¢	+266 26¢
Pinnacle	-7 +101	49.5 -113	-317	+264

All 26 books

	Bills spread	Total (over)	Bills ML	Patriots ML
TOM	-7 -104	50 -112	-325	+250
Kalshi	-6.5 -121 53¢	50.5 -103 49¢	-306 74¢	+266 26¢
Bally Bet	-6.5 -115	50 -107	-315	+250
BetAnything	-7 -105	50 -110	-340	+270
BetMGM	-7 -105	50 -108	-325	+260
BetOnline.ag	-7 -104	50 -112	-325	+263
betPARX	-6.5 -115	50 -107	-315	+250
BetRivers	-6.5 -115	49.5 -114	-315	+250
BetUS	-7 -105	50 -110	-325	+265
Bovada	-7 +100	50 -110	-320	+260
Caesars	-6.5 -120	50 -109	-325	+260
Courtside	-7 -103	49.5 -110	-297	+251
DraftKings	-7 -105	49.5 -112	-305	+245
DraftKings Predictions	-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 56¢ -138 all-in	76¢ -355 all-in	27¢ +245 all-in
Fanatics	-7 -105	50 -110	-320	+250
FanDuel	-6.5 -122	49.5 -115	-340	+275
Fliff	-6.5 -125	49.5 -110	-370	+265
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -110	49.5 -110	-350	+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -110	49.5 -110	-350	+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -110	49.5 -110	-350	+275
LowVig.ag	-7 +102	50 -109	-325	+263
MyBookie.ag	-7 -105	50 -110	-330	+255
Pinnacle	-7 +101	49.5 -113	-317	+264
Polymarket	-6.5 -117	49.5 -108	-300	+285
ReBet	-6.5 -125	49.5 -120	-300	+246
theScore Bet	-7 -105	49.5 -110	-320	+260

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +6.5 · +101 (48¢) at Kalshi

Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): Kalshi, Caesars or FanDuel +6.5 at +101 (-1.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +7 at -115 (-2.3%) · TOM +7 at -116 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Patriots to win · +275 at FanDuel

We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 22. Where, best first (Patriots to win): FanDuel +275 (-0.0%) · Kalshi 26¢ (-0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +260 (-1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM +250 (-1.9%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +245 (27¢ on the app) (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.0 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 50 at -108 (0.4%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (0.1%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-0.4%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -105 (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Bills).

Also out: Jordan Hancock (CB, Bills), T.J. Sanders (DT, Bills), Christian Barmore (DT, Patriots).

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onBills by 721% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-6.5	-251
FPI	-6.5	-254
Sagarin	-5.0	-210
Massey	-6.0	-229
Market (22 books)	-7.0	-311

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	47.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New England Patriots +6.5	+101	+107	-1.4%
Moneyline	New England Patriots ML	+275	+275	-0.0%
Total	Under 50.0	-108	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 49.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Bears -3.5

should be Bears -4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Bears by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →

Market

Bears by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Bears by 5

FPI

Bears by 3

Sagarin

Bears by 7

Massey

Bears by 6

Nasty Number

Bears by 40.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Bears by 3 to Bears by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

43TOM

The Four

Massey

43.2on the market

FPI

42.8on the market

Nasty Number

43on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	43 -115	-193	+163
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	43 -108	-192	+167

All 26 books

	Bears spread	Total (over)	Bears ML	Jets ML
TOM	-3.5 -110	43 -115	-193	+163
Kalshi	-3.5 -107 50¢	43.5 -107 50¢	-182 63¢	+159 37¢
Bally Bet	-3.5 -109	43 -109	-182	+150
BetAnything	-3.5 -110	43 -115	-190	+165
BetMGM	-3.5 -110	43 -110	-185	+150
BetOnline.ag	-3.5 -110	43 -115	-193	+168
betPARX	-3.5 -109	43 -109	-182	+150
BetRivers	-3.5 -109	43 -109	-182	+150
BetUS	-3.5 -110	43 -115	-190	+163
Bovada	-3.5 -110	43 -110	-195	+165
Caesars	-3.5 -108	43 -109	-193	+160
Courtside	-3.5 -112	42.5 -123	-181	+157
DraftKings	-3.5 -112	43.5 +100	-185	+154
DraftKings Predictions	-3.5 51¢ -113 all-in	42.5 55¢ -132 all-in	64¢ -194 all-in	38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics	-3.5 -110	43 -110	-195	+160
FanDuel	-3.5 -108	42.5 -118	-184	+154
Fliff	-3.5 -105	43.5 -105	-200	+155
Hard Rock Bet	-3.5 -105	43 -110	-190	+155
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-3.5 -105	43 -110	-190	+155
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-3.5 -105	43 -110	-190	+155
LowVig.ag	-3.5 -105	43 -113	-193	+168
MyBookie.ag	-3.5 -110	43 -110	-193	+155
Pinnacle	-3.5 -108	43 -108	-192	+167
Polymarket	-3.5 -104	43.5 +100	-178	+170
ReBet	-3.5 -110	42.5 -120	-189	+159
theScore Bet	-4 -110	43.5 +100	-195	+165

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Bears): Kalshi, Caesars or FanDuel -3.5 at -107 (-1.0%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-2.1%).

Not Nasty

Bears to win · -182 (63¢) at Kalshi

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Bears to win): Kalshi or FanDuel -182 (-0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -185 (-0.7%) · Caesars, TOM or DraftKings Predictions -193 (64¢ on the app) (-1.6%) · Fanatics -195 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 43.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 43.5 at +100 (-1.5%) · Caesars 43 at -109 (-2.1%) · BetMGM or Fanatics 43 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 42.5 at -118 (-2.6%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 50¢ (-3.2%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Under 43.5, only $126 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off FPI, Sagarin, Massey; nfelo rebuilt after the news and had it already, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Breece Hall (RB, Jets), Adonai Mitchell (WR, Jets), Braxton Jones (OT, Bears) and 5 more.

New York Jets has had 7 days off against 5, worth about 0.1 points.

Full detail

We settle onBears by 421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-5.0	-203
FPI	-3.0	-227
Sagarin	-7.0	-398
Massey	-6.0	-348
Market (22 books)	-3.5	-185

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	43.0	43.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Chicago Bears -3.5	-110	-103	-1.6%
Moneyline	Chicago Bears ML	-182	-180	-0.3%
Total	Over 43.0	-115	-100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at Buccaneers

NFL tomorrow 12:00pm

Packers -3.5

should be Packers -3 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Buccaneers →

Market

Packers by 3.5TOM, -120

The Four

nfelo

Packers by 2.5

FPI

Packers by 4

Sagarin

Buccaneers by 0.5

Massey

Buccaneers by 1

Nasty Number

Packers by 30.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

39.5TOM

The Four

Massey

48.59 pts over the market

FPI

39.6on the market

Nasty Number

44.14.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -120	39.5 -110	+155	-185
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	40.5 +114 45¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Pinnacle	+3.5 -117	39.5 -104	+155	-177

All 26 books

	Buccaneers spread	Total (over)	Buccaneers ML	Packers ML
TOM	+3.5 -120	39.5 -110	+155	-185
Kalshi	+3.5 -121 53¢	40.5 +114 45¢	+152 38¢	-182 63¢
Bally Bet	+3.5 -109	39 -107	+155	-195
BetAnything	+3 +100	39.5 -110	+150	-170
BetMGM	+3 -102	39 -110	+150	-185
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -120	39.5 -110	+161	-185
betPARX	+3.5 -109	39 -107	+155	-195
BetRivers	+3.5 -109	39 -107	+155	-195
BetUS	+3.5 -120	39.5 -110	+155	-180
Bovada	+3 +100	39.5 -105	+155	-180
Caesars	+3.5 -114	39.5 -107	+154	-190
Courtside	+3 +100	39.5 -103	+145	-166
DraftKings	+3 -102	39.5 -105	+142	-170
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in	39.5 51¢ -113 all-in	39¢ +144 all-in	63¢ -185 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -120	39.5 -105	+150	-180
FanDuel	+3.5 -115	39.5 -105	+150	-178
Fliff	+3.5 -120	39.5 -105	+150	-195
Hard Rock Bet	+3.5 -115	39 -115	+155	-180
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+3.5 -115	39 -115	+155	-180
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+3.5 -115	39 -115	+155	-180
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -116	39.5 -107	+161	-185
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -120	39.5 -110	+154	-190
Pinnacle	+3.5 -117	39.5 -104	+155	-177
Polymarket	+3.5 -113	39.5 +104	+163	-170
ReBet	+3.5 -110	38.5 -120	+154	-182
theScore Bet	+3.5 -115	39.5 -105	+150	-175

Marked: best for the Buccaneers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +3.5 · -114 at Caesars

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): Caesars +3.5 at -114 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -120 (-2.2%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3 at -102 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +155 at TOM

We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 39. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): TOM or Caesars +155 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 38¢ (-1.2%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +150 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 39¢ on the app (+144 all-in) (-2.6%) · DraftKings +142 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Over 39.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 40. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi 40.5 at 45¢ (2.9%) · BetMGM 39 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 39.5 at -105 (1.5%) · Caesars 39.5 at -107 (1.0%) · TOM 39.5 at -110 (0.3%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 89°F.

Also out: Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers), Aaron Banks (G, Packers), Jacob Monk (C, Packers) and 4 more.

DraftKings still has Packers -3.0 while Pinnacle is at Packers by 3.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but 0.6% edge at the price, under the 3% bar.

Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onPackers by 321% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.5	+122
FPI	+4.0	+185
Sagarin	-0.5	-103
Massey	-1.0	-105
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+162

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	39.5	44.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5	-114	-110	-0.9%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+155	+160	-0.8%
Total	Over 39.5	-110	-111	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings

NFL tomorrow 3:05pm

Vikings -10

should be Vikings -10.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 10, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 10.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →

Market

Vikings by 10TOM, -108

The Four

nfelo

Vikings by 12.5

FPI

Vikings by 11

Sagarin

Vikings by 12

Massey

Vikings by 10.5

Nasty Number

Vikings by 10.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

38.5TOM

The Four

Massey

39.51 pts over the market

FPI

38.80.3 pts over the market

Nasty Number

39.10.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 40.5 to 38.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-10 -108	38.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	38.5 -112 51¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Pinnacle	-10 -104	38.5 -106	-602	+453

All 26 books

	Vikings spread	Total (over)	Vikings ML	Dolphins ML
TOM	-10 -108	38.5 -110	—	—
Kalshi	-9.5 -116 52¢	38.5 -112 51¢	-564 84¢	+456 17¢
Bally Bet	-10 -114	38.5 -110	-590	+430
BetAnything	-10 -108	38.5 -110	-610	+460
BetMGM	-10 -108	38.5 -108	-550	+425
BetOnline.ag	-10 -108	38.5 -110	-610	+452
betPARX	-10 -114	38.5 -110	-590	+430
BetRivers	-10 -114	38.5 -110	-590	+430
BetUS	-10 -110	38.5 -110	-615	+460
Bovada	-10 -110	38.5 -110	-625	+430
Caesars	-9.5 -121	38.5 -113	-625	+450
Courtside	-10 -108	38.5 -108	-530	+423
DraftKings	-10 -110	38.5 -110	-550	+410
DraftKings Predictions	-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in	39.5 48¢ -100 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics	-10 -110	38.5 -110	-600	+430
FanDuel	-10.5 -102	38.5 -110	-520	+410
Fliff	-10.5 -105	38.5 -115	-575	+380
Hard Rock Bet	-10 -115	38.5 -110	-575	+425
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-10 -115	38.5 -110	-575	+425
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-10 -115	38.5 -110	-575	+425
LowVig.ag	-10 -101	38.5 -107	-610	+452
MyBookie.ag	-10 -110	38.5 -110	-625	+440
Pinnacle	-10 -104	38.5 -106	-602	+453
Polymarket	-9.5	38.5 -108	-525	+488
ReBet	-10.5 -105	38.5 -120	-599	+450
theScore Bet	-9.5 -115	38.5 -110	-550	+380

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.0 · -108 at BetMGM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): BetMGM or TOM -10 at -108 (-0.2%) · Kalshi -9.5 at 52¢ (-0.2%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -102 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -10 at -110 (-0.6%) · Caesars -9.5 at -121 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Vikings to win · -520 at FanDuel

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): FanDuel -520 (-2.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -550 (-3.5%) · Kalshi 84¢ (-3.8%) · Fanatics -600 (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 84¢ on the app (-614 all-in) (-4.9%).

Off the band

the Over 38.5 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 39. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 38.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 38.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 38.5 at 51¢ (-2.1%) · Caesars 38.5 at -113 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -9.5, only $150 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Justin Jefferson (WR, Vikings), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 7 more.

Full detail

We settle onVikings by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-12.5	-472
FPI	-11.0	-436
Sagarin	-12.0	-461
Massey	-10.5	-423
Market (22 books)	-10.0	-537

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	38.5	39.1

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Minnesota Vikings -10.0	-108	-107	-0.2%
Moneyline	Minnesota Vikings ML	-520	-430	priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 38.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks

NFL tomorrow 3:25pm

Seahawks -7

should be Seahawks -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 7, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →

Market

Seahawks by 7TOM, -116

The Four

nfelo

Seahawks by 7

FPI

Seahawks by 7.5

Sagarin

Seahawks by 6.5

Massey

Seahawks by 10

Nasty Number

Seahawks by 7.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Seahawks by 6.5 to Seahawks by 7. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

42.5TOM

The Four

Massey

40.52 pts under the market

FPI

40.81.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

40.71.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 42.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7 -116	42.5 -112	-345	+270
Pinnacle	-7.5 +104	43 -103	-339	+280

All 25 books

	Seahawks spread	Total (over)	Seahawks ML	Chargers ML
TOM	-7 -116	42.5 -112	-345	+270
Bally Bet	-7 -112	43 -112	-360	+265
BetAnything	-7 -115	43 -110	-350	+280
BetMGM	-7 -115	42.5 -110	-350	+280
BetOnline.ag	-7 -116	42.5 -112	-345	+278
betPARX	-7 -112	43 -112	-360	+265
BetRivers	-7 -112	43 -112	-360	+265
BetUS	-7 -115	43 -110	-345	+278
Bovada	-7 -115	42.5 -115	-350	+275
Caesars	-7.5 -102	42.5 -118	-360	+285
Courtside	-7 -113	42.5 -116	-364	+303
DraftKings	-7 -115	42.5 -118	-375	+295
DraftKings Predictions	-7.5 49¢ -104 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	77¢ -376 all-in	26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics	-7.5 -105	42.5 -115	-350	+275
FanDuel	-7 -115	43.5 -102	-370	+295
Fliff	-7.5 -105	42.5 -120	-400	+280
Hard Rock Bet	-7 -115	42.5 -115	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-7 -115	42.5 -115	-375	+275
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-7 -115	42.5 -115	-375	+275
LowVig.ag	-7 -112	42.5 -109	-345	+278
MyBookie.ag	-7.5 +100	43 -110	-360	+275
Pinnacle	-7.5 +104	43 -103	-339	+280
Polymarket	-7.5 +108	42.5 -108	-317	+300
ReBet	-7.5 -105	42.5 -120	-350	+280
theScore Bet	-7 -115	42.5 -120	-360	+280

Marked: best for the Seahawks side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.0 · -116 at TOM

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Seahawks): Caesars -7.5 at -102 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM -7 at -115 (-1.7%) · TOM -7 at -116 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics -7.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Seahawks to win · -345 at TOM

We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): TOM -345 (-2.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -350 (-2.4%) · Caesars -360 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -370 (-3.4%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions -375 (77¢ on the app) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 42.5 · -108 at TOM

Massey projects 41 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Caesars 42.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 42.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -120 (-1.2%) · BetMGM, TOM or DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (-1.6%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -7.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Seahawks). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Zach Charbonnet (RB, Seahawks), Jadarian Price (RB, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus.

TOM: total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.

LowVig.ag still has Seahawks -7.0 while Pinnacle is at Seahawks by 7.5. Far enough off to be a pick, but not a book we can bet.

Full detail

We settle onSeahawks by 7.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-7.0	-288
FPI	-7.5	-318
Sagarin	-6.5	-254
Massey	-10.0	-404
Market (22 books)	-7.0	-330

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	42.5	40.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Seattle Seahawks -7.0	-116	-107	-1.9%
Moneyline	Seattle Seahawks ML	-345	-305	-2.2%
Total	Under 42.5	-108	-101	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Seattle Seahawks since 09-26 16:16.

TOM: spread -7.0 here against -7.3 consensus; total 42.5 here against 42.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers

NFL tomorrow 7:20pm

Lions -3.5

should be Lions -3.5 · no bet

Not NastyBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →

Market

Lions by 3.5TOM, -110

The Four

nfelo

Lions by 2

FPI

Lions by 2.5

Sagarin

Lions by 1

Massey

Lions by 3

Nasty Number

Lions by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Lions by 3 to Lions by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

51TOM

The Four

Massey

55.24.2 pts over the market

FPI

50.20.8 pts under the market

Weather

-1.059% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

51.70.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 51. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	51 -110	+160	-190
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -116 52¢	+166 36¢	-200 65¢
Pinnacle	+4 -109	51.5 +102	+172	-198

All 26 books

	Panthers spread	Total (over)	Panthers ML	Lions ML
TOM	+3.5 -110	51 -110	+160	-190
Kalshi	+3.5 -103 49¢	50.5 -116 52¢	+166 36¢	-200 65¢
Bally Bet	+4 -114	51 -110	+155	-190
BetAnything	+3.5 -105	51 -110	+170	-200
BetMGM	+3.5 -108	51 -108	+160	-200
BetOnline.ag	+3.5 -110	51 -110	+165	-190
betPARX	+4 -114	51 -110	+155	-190
BetRivers	+4 -114	51 -110	+155	-190
BetUS	+3.5 -110	51 -110	+163	-190
Bovada	+4 -115	51 -110	+170	-200
Caesars	+3.5 -108	51 -108	+164	-197
Courtside	+3.5 -108	51.5 -103	+153	-176
DraftKings	+3.5 -108	50.5 -122	+150	-180
DraftKings Predictions	+3.5 50¢ -108 all-in	51.5 50¢ -108 all-in	37¢ +156 all-in	66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics	+3.5 -105	51 -110	+165	-200
FanDuel	+3.5 -104	50.5 -118	+172	-205
Fliff	+3.5 -105	51.5 -105	+165	-220
Hard Rock Bet	+4 -110	51 -110	+170	-200
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	+4 -110	51 -110	+170	-200
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	+4 -110	51 -110	+170	-200
LowVig.ag	+3.5 -104	51 -107	+165	-190
MyBookie.ag	+3.5 -110	51 -110	+161	-200
Pinnacle	+4 -109	51.5 +102	+172	-198
Polymarket	+3.5 +100	50.5 -108	+178	-186
ReBet	+3.5 -109	50.5 -120	+165	-196
theScore Bet	+4 -110	51.5 -110	+170	-200

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -3.5 · -110 at BetMGM

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): BetMGM or TOM -3.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars -3.5 at -112 (-2.8%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -3.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.9%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -118 (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Lions to win · -180 at DraftKings

We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Lions to win): DraftKings -180 (-0.6%) · TOM -190 (-1.8%) · Caesars -197 (-2.7%) · Kalshi, BetMGM or Fanatics -200 (-2.9%) · FanDuel -205 (-3.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM

Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 50. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars or BetMGM 51 at -108 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (-1.3%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -122 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 69°F, 59% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.2 toward Lions). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Also out: Xavier Legette (WR, Panthers), Damien Lewis (G, Panthers), Ben Bartch (G, Lions) and 3 more.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +167 here against +184 consensus.

Full detail

We settle onLions by 3.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	+2.0	+120
FPI	+2.5	+123
Sagarin	+1.0	+104
Massey	+3.0	+147
Market (22 books)	+3.5	+167

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	51.0	51.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Detroit Lions -3.5	-110	-100	-2.3%
Moneyline	Detroit Lions ML	-180	-175	-0.6%
Total	Over 51.0	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.2 toward Detroit Lions since 09-26 19:33; total has moved up 1.8.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.9 consensus; total 51.0 here against 51.3 consensus; moneyline +167 here against +184 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Mon Oct 5

1 gameBest: A Little Nasty · Under, Falcons at Saints

GameThe call

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints

NFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm

Under 48

should be 46.8 · getting 1.2 pts · was 47.5

A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›

A Little Nasty, Under 48.0. Massey and FPI say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Saints by 1, the Nasty Number says Saints by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →

Market

Saints by 1TOM, -122

The Four

nfelo

Saints by 2.5

FPI

Saints by 4

Sagarin

Saints by 3.5

Massey

Saints by 3

Nasty Number

Saints by 2.51.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

48TOM, Under -115

The Four

Massey

43.94.1 pts under the market

FPI

43.34.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

43.64.4 pts under the market

Under 48 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -122	48 -105	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Pinnacle	-2 -105	48.5 -101	-128	+113

All 26 books

	Saints spread	Total (over)	Saints ML	Falcons ML
TOM	-1 -122	48 -105	-135	+115
Kalshi	-2.5 -103 49¢	47.5 -116 52¢	-131 55¢	+109 46¢
Bally Bet	-2 -110	47.5 -109	-141	+114
BetAnything	-2 -110	48 -110	-130	+110
BetMGM	-2 -108	47.5 -110	-130	+110
BetOnline.ag	-1 -122	48 -105	-135	+115
betPARX	-2 -110	47.5 -109	-141	+114
BetRivers	-2 -110	47.5 -109	-141	+114
BetUS	-1 -120	48 -110	-135	+115
Bovada	-2 -110	48 -110	-130	+110
Caesars	-2.5 -110	48 -107	-136	+114
Courtside	-2.5 -105	47.5 -110	-132	+116
DraftKings	-2.5 -105	47.5 -112	-135	+114
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 48¢ -100 all-in	56¢ -138 all-in	47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics	-2 -110	48 -110	-130	+110
FanDuel	-2.5 -105	47.5 -110	-132	+112
Fliff	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-140	+110
Hard Rock Bet	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-135	+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	-2.5 -110	47.5 -115	-135	+115
LowVig.ag	-1 -118	48 -102	-135	+115
MyBookie.ag	-2 -110	48 -110	-136	+111
Pinnacle	-2 -105	48.5 -101	-128	+113
Polymarket	-2.5 +100	47.5 -104	-122	+117
ReBet	-2.5 -120	47.5 -110	-134	+114
theScore Bet	-1.5 -115	48.5 -110	-125	+105

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Saints -1.0 · -122 at TOM

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Saints): BetMGM -2 at -108 (-0.8%) · TOM -1 at -122 (-1.1%) · Kalshi -2.5 at 49¢ (-1.1%) · Fanatics -2 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -2.5 at -105 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

Saints to win · -135 at DraftKings

We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 57. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (Saints to win): BetMGM, Fanatics or Kalshi -130 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -132 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, TOM or Caesars -135 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.

Not Nasty

the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM

Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 43. That's 4.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 48 at -110 (1.4%) · Caesars 48 at -113 (0.7%) · TOM 48 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (0.2%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-0.2%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Falcons).

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordyn Tyson (WR, Saints), A.J. Terrell Jr. (CB, Falcons), Da'Shawn Hand (DT, Falcons).

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.0 consensus.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail

We settle onSaints by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-2.5	-136
FPI	-4.0	-192
Sagarin	-3.5	-175
Massey	-3.0	-159
Market (22 books)	-1.0	-129

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	48.0	43.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Orleans Saints -1.0	-122	-117	-1.1%
Moneyline	New Orleans Saints ML	-135	-123	-2.2%
Total	Under 48.0	-115	-116	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Atlanta Falcons since 09-27 21:32; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: spread -1.0 here against -2.0 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Tue Oct 6

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Troy TrojansSouthern Miss at Troy

CFB Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pm

Troy -9.5

should be Troy -9.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Troy →

Market

Troy by 9.5

The Four

SP+

Troy by 12

FPI

Troy by 5.5

Sagarin

Troy by 10.5

Massey

Troy by 7.5

Nasty Number

Troy by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Troy by 9.5 to Troy by 10.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

50.21 pts over the market

Massey

48.60.6 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.4on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 49.5 to 50.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
Kalshi	—	50.5 -116 52¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢

All 8 books

	Troy spread	Total (over)	Troy ML	Southern Miss ML
Kalshi	—	50.5 -116 52¢	-340 76¢	+266 26¢
Bally Bet	-9.5 -110	49.5 -114	-375	+285
betPARX	-9.5 -110	49.5 -114	-375	+285
BetRivers	-9.5 -112	49.5 -115	-385	+285
Courtside	-9.5 -108	48.5 -108	-345	+287
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	48.5 -110	-355	+280
FanDuel	-10.5 -104	50.5 -115	-385	+290
Fliff	-9.5 -115	48.5 -115	-375	+280

Marked: best for the Troy side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +10.5 · -118 at FanDuel

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel +10.5 at -118 (-0.4%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (-2.3%).

Not Nasty

Southern Miss to win · +285

We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +290 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +280 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 26¢ (-3.1%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.0 · -110

SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or Kalshi 50.5 at -115 (-6.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 69°F, 20% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Troy Trojans -9.5, only $52 available; Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +9.5, only $129 available; Under 50.5, only $317 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onTroy by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-12.0	-402
FPI	-5.5	-191
Sagarin	-10.5	-371
Massey	-7.5	-261
Market (7 books)	-9.5	-335

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.0	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +10.5	-118	-116	-0.4%
Moneyline	Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML	+285	+312	-1.7%
Total	Over 49.0	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

Priced once the new ratings land.

Wed Oct 7

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Jacksonville State Gamecocks at Kennesaw State OwlsJacksonville State at Kennesaw State

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:00pm

Kennesaw State +3

should be Kennesaw State +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Jacksonville State than the bookmore Kennesaw State →

Market

Jacksonville State by 3

The Four

SP+

Jacksonville State by 7.5

FPI

Jacksonville State by 0.5

Sagarin

Kennesaw State by 3

Massey

Jacksonville State by 3.5

Nasty Number

Jacksonville State by 2.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Kennesaw State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

49.5

The Four

SP+ pace

533.7 pts over the market

Massey

490.3 pts under the market

Nasty Number

511.7 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
Kalshi	+2.5	—	—	-148 58¢

All 10 books

	Kennesaw State spread	Total (over)	Kennesaw State ML	Jacksonville State ML
Kalshi	+2.5	—	—	-148 58¢
Bally Bet	+3 -106	49.5 -110	+130	-159
betPARX	+3 -106	49.5 -110	+130	-159
BetRivers	+3 -107	49.5 -112	+130	-162
Courtside	+2.5 -103	48.5 -113	+122	-139
DraftKings	+2.5 -105	48.5 -115	+120	-142
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48¢ -100 all-in	59¢ -157 all-in
FanDuel	+3.5 -122	50.5 +100	+128	-154
Fliff	+2.5 -110	49.5 -115	+125	-155
theScore Bet	+2.5 +100	49.5 -105	+130	-150

Marked: best for the Kennesaw State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): FanDuel +3.5 at -122 (1.6%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.5%).

Not Nasty

Kennesaw State to win · +128 at FanDuel

We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): FanDuel +128 (1.0%) · DraftKings +120 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-5.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 49.5 · -110

SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -115 (0.0%) · FanDuel 50.5 at +100 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-3.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +3.0 · -110. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Kalshi thin: Kennesaw State Owls +2.5, only $12 available; Over 48.5, only $53 available; Under 48.5, only $357 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onJacksonville State by 2.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+7.5	+262
FPI	+0.5	-100
Sagarin	-3.0	-136
Massey	+3.5	+160
Market (8 books)	+3.0	+140

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	49.5	51.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Kennesaw State Owls +3.0	-110	-114	+0.9%
Moneyline	Kennesaw State Owls ML	+128	+123	+1.0%
Total	Over 49.5	-110	-104	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.1.

Priced once the new ratings land.

New Mexico State Aggies at Florida International PanthersNew Mexico State at Florida International

CFB Wed 7 Oct, 6:30pm

Under 50.5

should be 48.6 · getting 1.9 pts

Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more New Mexico State than the bookmore Florida International →

Market

Florida International by 4.5

The Four

SP+

hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game

FPI

hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game

Sagarin

hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game

Massey

Florida International by 3

Nasty Number

Florida International by 40.5 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

43.96.6 pts under the market

Massey

46.14.4 pts under the market

Weather

-1.071% chance of rain, takes a point off

Nasty Number

446.5 pts under the market

Under 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

New Mexico State +4.5 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (New Mexico State): FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (-2.2%).

Not Nasty

New Mexico State to win · +145 at FanDuel

We make it 37 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 37 cents fair, a play under 32. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): FanDuel +146 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 46. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (2.5%).

A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 50.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F, 71% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida International by 430% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game
FPI	hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game
Sagarin	hasn't seen New Mexico State's last game
Massey	-3.0	-132
Market (2 books)	-4.5	-163

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	44.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	New Mexico State Aggies +4.5	-110	-105	-1.1%
Moneyline	New Mexico State Aggies ML	+145	+170	-3.6%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-121	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Thu Oct 8

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas CowboysBuccaneers at Cowboys

NFL Thu 8 Oct, 7:15pm

Cowboys -9.5

should be Cowboys -9.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Buccaneers than the bookmore Cowboys →

Market

Cowboys by 9.5

The Four

nfelo

Cowboys by 8.5

FPI

Cowboys by 12.5

Sagarin

Cowboys by 6

Massey

Cowboys by 3

Nasty Number

Cowboys by 9.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

Massey

54.17 pts over the market

FPI

43.43.7 pts under the market

Nasty Number

48.71.6 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Buccaneers ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	47.5	-524 83¢	—
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -110	47 -110	—	—

All 14 books

	Cowboys spread	Total (over)	Cowboys ML	Buccaneers ML
Kalshi	-9.5 -112 51¢	47.5	-524 83¢	—
Bally Bet	-9.5 -114	47 -112	-560	+400
BetOnline.ag	-9.5 -110	47 -110	—	—
betPARX	-9.5 -114	47 -112	-560	+400
BetRivers	-9.5 -114	47 -112	-560	+400
BetUS	-9.5 -110	47 -110	—	—
Caesars	-9.5 -114	—	-530	+400
Courtside	-9.5 -108	47.5 -108	-515	+413
DraftKings	-9.5 -110	47.5 -110	-535	+400
DraftKings Predictions	-8.5 55¢ -132 all-in	48.5 51¢ -113 all-in	85¢ -670 all-in	22¢ +317 all-in
FanDuel	-9.5 -110	46.5 -115	-520	+400
LowVig.ag	-9.5 -105	47 -107	—	—
MyBookie.ag	-9.5 -110	47 -110	-500	+340
ReBet	-9.5 -120	47.5 -109	-469	+360

Marked: best for the Cowboys side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +9.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buccaneers): Caesars +9.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +9.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.9%).

Not Nasty

Buccaneers to win · +400 at DraftKings

We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel +400 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 22¢ on the app (+317 all-in) (-2.7%).

Off the band

the Over 47.0 · -110

Massey projects 54 and FPI projects 43. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.8%).

Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $65 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML, only $28 available; Dallas Cowboys -9.5, only $167 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Ko Kieft (TE, Buccaneers), Tyler Smith (G, Cowboys), Cobie Durant (CB, Cowboys) and 5 more.

Full detail

We settle onCowboys by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
nfelo	-8.5	-354
FPI	-12.5	-478
Sagarin	-6.0	-234
Massey	-3.0	-142
Market (12 books)	-9.5	-474

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	47.0	48.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Tampa Bay Buccaneers ML	+400	+369	priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 47.0	-110	-108	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Fri Oct 9

2 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Iowa Hawkeyes at Washington HuskiesIowa at Washington

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 8:00pm

Iowa +1

should be Iowa +0.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Washington →

Market

Washington by 1

The Four

SP+

Iowa by 0.5

FPI

Iowa by 6

Sagarin

Iowa by 0.5

Massey

Iowa by 3

Nasty Number

Washington by 0.50.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

41.5

The Four

SP+ pace

37.93.6 pts under the market

Massey

41.7on the market

Nasty Number

39.81.7 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Washington spread	Total (over)	Washington ML	Iowa ML
Bally Bet	-1 -106	41.5 -109	-112	-109
betPARX	-1 -106	41.5 -109	-112	-109
BetRivers	-1 -107	41.5 -110	-113	-110
Courtside	-1.5 -103	41.5 -108	-110	-106
DraftKings	-1.5 -105	41.5 -110	-112	-108
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 52¢ -117 all-in	42.5 53¢ -122 all-in	54¢ -127 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fliff	-1.5 -110	41.5 -115	-115	-110

Marked: best for the Washington side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa +1.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa): DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.6%).

Not Nasty

Iowa to win · -109

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Iowa to win): DraftKings -108 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.3%).

Not Nasty

the Under 41.5 · -110

SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.8%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -1.5, only $51 available; Iowa Hawkeyes +1.5, only $371 available; Over 41.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onWashington by 0.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+0.5	-100
FPI	+6.0	+207
Sagarin	+0.5	+103
Massey	+3.0	+136
Market (6 books)	-1.0	-102

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.5	39.8

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa Hawkeyes +1.0	-110	-104	-1.3%
Moneyline	Iowa Hawkeyes ML	-109	+101	-2.4%
Total	Under 41.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Iowa State Cyclones at BYU CougarsIowa State at BYU

CFB Fri 9 Oct, 9:15pm

Iowa State +14.5

should be Iowa State +13.5 · getting 1 pt at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Iowa State than the bookmore BYU →

Market

BYU by 14

The Four

SP+

BYU by 15

FPI

BYU by 13

Sagarin

BYU by 11

Massey

BYU by 3

Nasty Number

BYU by 13.50.4 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

45.25.3 pts under the market

Massey

50.10.4 pts under the market

Nasty Number

47.72.8 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+398 19¢

All 8 books

	BYU spread	Total (over)	BYU ML	Iowa State ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	+398 19¢
Bally Bet	-13.5 -115	50.5 -113	-670	+440
betPARX	-13.5 -115	50.5 -113	-670	+440
BetRivers	-13.5 -117	50.5 -114	-715	+440
Courtside	-14.5 -108	50.5 -108	-600	+471
DraftKings	-14.5 -110	50.5 -110	-625	+455
DraftKings Predictions	-15.5 58¢ -150 all-in	—	88¢ -900 all-in	19¢ +376 all-in
Fliff	-14.5 -115	50.5 -120	-650	+440

Marked: best for the BYU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Iowa State +14.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Iowa State): DraftKings +14.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +15.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.2%).

Not Nasty

Iowa State to win · +440

We make it 18 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): DraftKings +455 (0.0%) · Kalshi 19¢ (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 19¢ on the app (+376 all-in) (-3.0%).

Off the band

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (0.5%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Iowa State +14.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: BYU Cougars -14.5, only $52 available; Iowa State Cyclones +14.5, only $364 available; Over 50.5, only $52 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onBYU by 13.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-15.0	-546
FPI	-13.0	-433
Sagarin	-11.0	-385
Massey	-3.0	-146
Market (6 books)	-14.0	-576

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	47.7

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Iowa State Cyclones +14.5	-110	-115	+1.0%
Moneyline	Iowa State Cyclones ML	+440	+454	priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-112	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Sat Oct 10

7 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.

GameThe call

Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska CornhuskersIndiana at Nebraska

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 11:00am

Indiana -9

should be Indiana -8 · giving up 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Nebraska →

Market

Indiana by 9

The Four

SP+

Indiana by 8

FPI

Indiana by 6.5

Sagarin

Indiana by 5

Massey

Indiana by 11

Nasty Number

Indiana by 80.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

54.34.3 pts over the market

Massey

50on the market

Nasty Number

52.22.2 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-322 75¢

All 8 books

	Nebraska spread	Total (over)	Nebraska ML	Indiana ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-322 75¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -106	50.5 -114	+310	-420
betPARX	+9.5 -106	50.5 -114	+310	-420
BetRivers	+9.5 -108	50.5 -114	+310	-420
DraftKings	+8.5 -110	50.5 -110	+285	-360
DraftKings Predictions	+8.5 54¢ -127 all-in	48.5 58¢ -150 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in	80¢ -456 all-in
FanDuel	+7.5 -105	48.5 -115	+250	-315
Fliff	+8.5 -115	49.5 -115	+280	-375

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska +9.0 · -110

Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): DraftKings +8.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.1%).

Not Nasty

Nebraska to win · +285 at DraftKings

We make it 26 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 26 cents fair, a play under 21. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): DraftKings +285 (-0.4%) · FanDuel +250 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (-4.5%).

Not Nasty

the Over 50.0 · -110

SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 48.5 at -115 (2.5%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-4.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +9.5, now +9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Nebraska).

Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers ML, only $31 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onIndiana by 840% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+8.0	+284
FPI	+6.5	+208
Sagarin	+5.0	+187
Massey	+11.0	+376
Market (6 books)	+9.0	+344

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.0	52.2

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Nebraska Cornhuskers +9.0	-110	-105	-1.1%
Moneyline	Nebraska Cornhuskers ML	+285	+291	-0.4%
Total	Over 50.0	-110	-110	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 10-02 11:03.

Priced once the new ratings land.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Florida GatorsSouth Carolina at Florida

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pm

South Carolina +15

should be South Carolina +14 · getting 1 pt · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Florida →

Market

Florida by 15

The Four

SP+

Florida by 13

FPI

Florida by 11.5

Sagarin

Florida by 11.5

Massey

Florida by 9.5

Nasty Number

Florida by 140.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

57.5

The Four

SP+ pace

61.84.3 pts over the market

Massey

59.41.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

60.63.1 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	-788 88¢	—

All 8 books

	Florida spread	Total (over)	Florida ML	South Carolina ML
Kalshi	—	—	-788 88¢	—
Bally Bet	-15 -109	57.5 -112	-835	+525
betPARX	-15 -109	57.5 -112	-835	+525
BetRivers	-15 -110	57.5 -113	-835	+525
Courtside	-14.5 -108	57.5 -108	-646	+508
DraftKings	-14.5 -110	57.5 -110	-675	+490
DraftKings Predictions	-14.5 53¢ -122 all-in	57.5 53¢ -122 all-in	89¢ -1011 all-in	18¢ +400 all-in
Fliff	-14.5 -120	57.5 -120	-750	+495

Marked: best for the Florida side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +15.0 · -110

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (South Carolina): DraftKings +14.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

South Carolina to win · +508

We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 16, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): DraftKings +490 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-3.0%).

Off the band

the Over 57.5 · -110

SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks ML, only $5 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onFlorida by 1421% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-13.0	-435
FPI	-11.5	-398
Sagarin	-11.5	-395
Massey	-9.5	-310
Market (6 books)	-15.0	-667

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	57.5	60.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	South Carolina Gamecocks +15.0	-110	-110	-0.0%
Moneyline	South Carolina Gamecocks ML	+508	+490	priced at 16 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 57.5	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Texas A&M Aggies at Missouri TigersTexas A&M at Missouri

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 12:00pm

Texas A&M +1

should be Texas A&M +0.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore Missouri →

Market

Missouri by 1

The Four

SP+

Missouri by 7

FPI

Texas A&M by 3.5

Sagarin

Texas A&M by 2

Massey

Texas A&M by 3

Nasty Number

Missouri by 0.50.8 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.21.3 pts under the market

Massey

51.71.2 pts over the market

Nasty Number

50.5on the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Missouri spread	Total (over)	Missouri ML	Texas A&M ML
Bally Bet	-1 -110	50.5 -113	-117	-105
betPARX	-1 -110	50.5 -113	-117	-105
BetRivers	-1 -112	50.5 -114	-118	-106
Courtside	-1.5 -108	50.5 -108	-116	+100
DraftKings	-1.5 -110	50.5 -110	-118	-102
DraftKings Predictions	-1.5 53¢ -122 all-in	48.5 58¢ -150 all-in	55¢ -132 all-in	53¢ -122 all-in
Fliff	-1.5 -115	50.5 -120	-120	-105

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +1.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Texas A&M): DraftKings +1.5 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

Texas A&M to win · -105

We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings -102 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.1%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-7.0%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers ML, only $2 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $57 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onMissouri by 0.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-7.0	-243
FPI	+3.5	+151
Sagarin	+2.0	+117
Massey	+3.0	+141
Market (6 books)	-1.0	-107

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	50.5

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas A&M Aggies +1.5	-110	-111	+0.3%
Moneyline	Texas A&M Aggies ML	-105	-100	-1.2%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	+100	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Texas Longhorns at Oklahoma SoonersTexas at Oklahoma

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm · neutral

Texas -9.5

should be Texas -9.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Oklahoma →

Market

Texas by 9.5

The Four

SP+

Texas by 9.5

FPI

Texas by 13

Sagarin

Texas by 7

Massey

Texas by 7.5

Nasty Number

Texas by 9.50.1 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

35.85.3 pts under the market

Massey

40.11 pts under the market

Nasty Number

383.2 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.2 points of the book.

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-381 78¢

All 7 books

	Oklahoma spread	Total (over)	Oklahoma ML	Texas ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-381 78¢
Bally Bet	+9.5 -107	41.5 -113	+325	-455
betPARX	+9.5 -107	41.5 -113	+325	-455
BetRivers	+9.5 -108	41.5 -114	+325	-455
DraftKings	+9.5 -105	41.5 -110	+320	-410
FanDuel	+8.5 -110	40.5 -110	+265	-335
Fliff	+9.5 -110	40.5 -115	+295	-400

Marked: best for the Oklahoma side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -9.5 · -110

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas): FanDuel -8.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -9.5 at -115 (-3.6%).

Not Nasty

Texas to win · -335 at FanDuel

We make it 76 in 100 to win. The price says 77. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 76 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Texas to win): FanDuel -335 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 78¢ (-3.5%) · DraftKings -410 (-4.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 41.0 · -110

SP+ projects 36 and Massey projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 41.5 at -110 (0.6%) · FanDuel 40.5 at -110 (-1.9%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $0 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

Full detail

We settle onTexas by 9.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+9.5	+318
FPI	+13.0	+431
Sagarin	+7.0	+241
Massey	+7.5	+279
Market (6 books)	+9.5	+372

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	41.0	38.0

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Texas Longhorns -9.5	-110	+100	-2.5%
Moneyline	Texas Longhorns ML	-335	-312	-1.3%
Total	Under 41.0	-110	-107	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

UCLA Bruins at Oregon DucksUCLA at Oregon

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 2:30pm

Oregon -12.5

should be Oregon -12.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Oregon →

Market

Oregon by 12.5

The Four

SP+

Oregon by 10

FPI

Oregon by 13.5

Sagarin

Oregon by 14.5

Massey

Oregon by 14.5

Nasty Number

Oregon by 12.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

60.5

The Four

SP+ pace

63.83.3 pts over the market

Massey

600.5 pts under the market

Nasty Number

61.91.4 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 7 books

	Oregon spread	Total (over)	Oregon ML	UCLA ML
Bally Bet	-12.5 -112	60.5 -107	-560	+390
betPARX	-12.5 -112	60.5 -107	-560	+390
BetRivers	-12.5 -113	60.5 -108	-560	+390
DraftKings	-12.5 -110	60.5 -110	-455	+350
DraftKings Predictions	-12.5 53¢ -122 all-in	60.5 53¢ -122 all-in	84¢ -614 all-in	24¢ +285 all-in
FanDuel	-12.5 -115	60.5 -110	-530	+390
Fliff	-12.5 -115	60.5 -115	-525	+375

Marked: best for the Oregon side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oregon -12.5 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon): DraftKings -12.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -115 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.7%).

Not Nasty

Oregon to win · -455 at DraftKings

We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 82, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon to win): DraftKings -455 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -530 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 84¢ on the app (-614 all-in) (-5.1%).

Off the band

the Over 60.5 · -110

SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or DraftKings 60.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Oregon Ducks ML, only $0 available; UCLA Bruins ML, only $32 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onOregon by 12.521% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	-10.0	-338
FPI	-13.5	-449
Sagarin	-14.5	-508
Massey	-14.5	-519
Market (6 books)	-12.5	-472

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	60.5	61.9

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Oregon Ducks -12.5	-110	-101	-2.1%
Moneyline	Oregon Ducks ML	-455	-423	priced at 82 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
Total	Over 60.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

LSU Tigers at Kentucky WildcatsLSU at Kentucky

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:00pm

LSU -10.5

should be LSU -10.5 · no bet

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more LSU than the bookmore Kentucky →

Market

LSU by 10.5

The Four

SP+

LSU by 11

FPI

LSU by 10.5

Sagarin

LSU by 5

Massey

LSU by 6

Nasty Number

LSU by 10.50 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

50.5

The Four

SP+ pace

49.21.3 pts under the market

Massey

49.60.9 pts under the market

Nasty Number

49.41.1 pts under the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	—

All 6 books

	Kentucky spread	Total (over)	Kentucky ML	LSU ML
Bally Bet	+10.5 -109	50.5 -108	+340	-455
betPARX	+10.5 -109	50.5 -108	+340	-455
BetRivers	+10.5 -110	50.5 -109	+335	-455
DraftKings	+10 -110	50.5 -110	+280	-355
DraftKings Predictions	+9.5 52¢ -117 all-in	48.5 58¢ -150 all-in	28¢ +233 all-in	79¢ -426 all-in
Fliff	+10.5 -115	50.5 -115	+305	-415

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

LSU -10.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (LSU): DraftKings -10 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-4.6%).

Not Nasty

LSU to win · -355 at DraftKings

We make it 78 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 78 cents fair, a play under 74. Where, best first (LSU to win): DraftKings -355 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 79¢ on the app (-426 all-in) (-2.7%).

Not Nasty

the Under 50.5 · -110

SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-6.3%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $48 available; LSU Tigers ML, only $125 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onLSU by 10.530% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+11.0	+383
FPI	+10.5	+363
Sagarin	+5.0	+185
Massey	+6.0	+200
Market (5 books)	+10.5	+382

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	50.5	49.4

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	LSU Tigers -10.0	-110	-107	-0.8%
Moneyline	LSU Tigers ML	-355	-360	+0.3%
Total	Under 50.5	-110	-103	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

Georgia Bulldogs at Alabama Crimson TideGeorgia at Alabama

CFB Sat 10 Oct, 6:30pm

Alabama +3

should be Alabama +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings

WaitingBuck's case ›

Not Nasty. Priced once the new ratings land.

The spread

← more Georgia than the bookmore Alabama →

Market

Georgia by 3

The Four

SP+

Georgia by 5

FPI

Georgia by 1.5

Sagarin

Alabama by 2

Massey

Georgia by 0.5

Nasty Number

Georgia by 2.50.6 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →

Market

The Four

SP+ pace

56.41.6 pts over the market

Massey

60.85.9 pts over the market

Nasty Number

58.63.8 pts over the market

Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-143 57¢

All 8 books

	Alabama spread	Total (over)	Alabama ML	Georgia ML
Kalshi	—	—	—	-143 57¢
Bally Bet	+3 -110	54.5 -114	+130	-157
betPARX	+3 -110	54.5 -114	+130	-157
BetRivers	+3 -112	54.5 -115	+128	-159
DraftKings	+3 -110	54.5 -110	+130	-155
DraftKings Predictions	+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in	54.5 53¢ -122 all-in	45¢ +113 all-in	62¢ -178 all-in
FanDuel	+1.5 -110	55.5 -110	+100	-120
Fliff	+3.5 -130	55.5 -115	+115	-150

Marked: best for the Alabama side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings

Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Alabama): DraftKings +3 at -110 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.5%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -110 (-4.0%).

Not Nasty

Alabama to win · +128

We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Alabama to win): DraftKings +130 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-1.3%) · FanDuel +100 (-4.3%).

Not Nasty

the Over 55.0 · -110

SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 61. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (2.3%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.4%).

No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Alabama +3.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide ML, only $18 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail

We settle onGeorgia by 2.540% weight on the ratings

Power rating	Their line	Home ML
SP+	+5.0	+186
FPI	+1.5	+111
Sagarin	-2.0	-114
Massey	+0.5	+101
Market (6 books)	+3.0	+135

Total	Market	SP+ projects
Points	55.0	58.6

Market	Play	Price	Nasty Number	Edge
Spread	Alabama Crimson Tide +3.0	-110	-119	+1.9%
Moneyline	Alabama Crimson Tide ML	+128	+119	+1.9%
Total	Over 55.0	-110	-115	shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Priced once the new ratings land.

The ReceiptsNasty Picks 5-6, -1.4u · Nasty Dogs 1-0, +1.9u · +0.5 pts vs the close on 11 Log what you betkept on this device for now Ask Buckquestions about this board How It Worksthe Four, the Sauce, the Cut, the Receipts

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks5-6-1.38 units · -13% ROI

Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI

Vs the close+0.5 ptsbeat the close on 7 of 12 posted picks

Open7calls waiting on a final

What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks5-645%-1.38 units11 games

Closing line value: +0.5 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 7 of 11. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

1-0 · +0.93 units

WonPittsburgh +3.5Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies35-33+0.93

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units

LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00

WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95

LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00

LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units

LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00

LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00

WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units

WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91

LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00

WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87

Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units

WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92

Damn Near Nasty5-456%+0.62 units9 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 9. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

1-0 · +0.95 units

WonCleveland Browns +3.0Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns24-27+0.95

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units

LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00

LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00

WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units

WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95

WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87

LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00

WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units

LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00

A Little Nasty22-2943%-9.30 units51 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 22 of 34. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 29 to Oct 5

1-0 · +1.07 units

WonTulsa +3.0North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden Hurricane45-44+1.07

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units

WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91

LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00

LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00

LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00

LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00

WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89

WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91

WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91

WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40

LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00

LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00

LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00

WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85

LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00

WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95

LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00

LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00

LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units

LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00

LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00

LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00

LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00

WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93

LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00

WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units

LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00

WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91

WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91

LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00

LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00

WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91

WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91

WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91

WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91

WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91

LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00

LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00

LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00

WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93

LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00

WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87

LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00

LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00

LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00

WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91

WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93

LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00

LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00

WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we said	Record	Hit rate	Units
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)	5-6	45.5%	-1.4 u	small sample
Nasty Dog	1-0	100.0%	+1.9 u	small sample
Damn Near Nasty	5-4	55.6%	+0.6 u	small sample
A Little Nasty	22-29	43.1%	-9.3 u
Not Nasty	194 games	—	—	no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-10-03 08:03.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 144 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
Massey	10.02	117
FPI	10.60	174
The market	10.68	235
SP+	10.70	174
Sagarin	12.11	225

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.50	0.07	120
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.00	117
SP+	1.00	1.50	0.00	120
Sagarin	1.00	0.00	0.06	144

The line archive, 235 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 119 times, against it 82, and sat still 34. Our side taken at the open finished 0.69 points better than the close on average over 221 games. The close misses the final by 10.59, the open by 10.92, our raw ratings number by 12.37, Pinnacle's close by 10.56. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.08, MyBookie.ag 10.37, Pinnacle 10.56.

The Cut tracker. 7 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 1 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 2-1, +0.89 units, +0.0 pts vs the close on 3; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 32 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

Number	Misses the final by	Games
The market	10.36	49
Massey	10.47	32
Sagarin	10.76	49
nfelo	10.76	49
FPI	11.04	34

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

System	Vote now	Best vote	Would save, pts a game	Games
FPI	1.00	0.00	0.03	32
Massey	1.00	1.50	0.00	32
Sagarin	1.00	1.50	0.04	32
nfelo	1.00	0.00	0.01	32

The line archive, 49 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 29 times, against it 15, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.76 points better than the close on average over 44 games. The close misses the final by 10.37, the open by 10.50, our raw ratings number by 10.79, Pinnacle's close by 10.36. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.82, Polymarket 9.38, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 10.00.

The head start. 112 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 45 times, against it 26, average 0.40 points; the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped 4, went quiet 57.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-25, 2026-09-26, 2026-09-27, 2026-09-28, 2026-09-28). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

Setting	Games	Our miss	Market's	Picks
as it runs	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
ratings 0%	311	10.63	10.53	0-0
ratings 5%	311	10.56	10.53	0-0
ratings 15%	311	10.42	10.53	0-0
ratings 45%	311	10.05	10.53	1-1
Sagarin half a vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Sagarin no vote	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
FPI a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1
Massey a vote and a half	311	10.23	10.53	0-1

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

College	Record	Hit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack	232-184	55.8%	the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack	733-642	53.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack	217-182	54.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack	804-717	52.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close	841-797	51.3%	why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more	1,540 games	49.2% covered	why lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind	430 games	53.0%	why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFL	Bets	Hit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number	245	56.3%	the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number	309	58.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number	278	63.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number	308	56.8%	any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number	174	58.0%	any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side	273	54.2%	why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 19 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value

+0.24Sides: pts vs close, 26 bets, beat it 69%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 112 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 45 of 112 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 51 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 57. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

Game	Sniff said	Line then	Line at the rung	Our way	Full board
UCF at Houston	UCF +10.5	10.5	11.2	-0.7	same side
UL Monroe at South Alabama	Over	54.5	55.9	+1.4	no call
Washington at USC	Over	53.5	56.4	+2.9	no call
West Virginia at Iowa State	Iowa State +2	2	-2.7	+4.7	same side
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans	Dallas +2.5	2.5	2.5	+0.0	no call
Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ers	San Francisco -2.9	-2.9	-2.5	-0.4	no call
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tampa Bay +3.5	3.5	4	-0.5	no call
Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals	Jacksonville +2.5	2.5	2.5	+0.0	no call
Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas Raiders	Under	48	48	+0.0	same side
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks	Under	43.5	42.5	+1.0	no call
New York Jets at Chicago Bears	New York +3	3	3	+0.0	no call
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	Under	48.5	48.5	+0.0	same side

Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 186 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
SP+	125	13.4	34-48 (41%)	22-25 (47%)
Massey	127	12.7	28-34 (45%)	9-20 (31%)
The blend	130	12.8	26-36 (42%)	10-19 (34%)

NFL, 39 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.

Source	Games	Misses by	2+ off the market	4+ off
Massey	35	11.0	9-12 (43%)	4-4 (50%)
FPI	33	10.6	9-2 (82%)	6-0 (100%)
The blend	35	10.2	8-4 (67%)	3-1 (75%)

NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Week

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

69 priced · 6 Nasty Picks · 15 a little nasty · 4 damn near nasty · ratings rebuild before Tue · audit: 1 problem

The audit found 1 problem at Sat 8:03am. New picks are held off the record until the next clean build; everything posted before stands. graded score disagrees with ESPN's final: Montana State at Idaho (2026-10-02): ESPN 34-35, the grader 34-33

13 games further out are not being priced yet: the ratings rebuild after this weekend, and betting a number we know is about to change isn't worth doing.

Next picks

Monday, once the ratings rebuild on this weekend's results. 13 games further out are waiting on those numbers, the first of them Tue 6 Oct, 7:00pm. We don't price a game against ratings we know are about to change.

We read 82 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. 6 cleared every check.

What's changed since 6:04am

MovedEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen price moved from -108 to -105.
MovedTemple Owls at South Florida Bulls line moved 0.5 toward Temple Owls, now -5.5.
MovedBaylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils is now Baylor Bears +3.5, was Baylor Bears +4.0.
MovedTexas State Bobcats at San Diego State Aztecs price moved from -110 to -115.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

→ 0.8Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saintstoward Atlanta Falconsagainst the public
→ 0.8Indiana Hoosiers at Nebraska Cornhuskerstoward Nebraska Cornhuskersagainst the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings

10.41Points off per game at that weight

10.41The market on its own

176Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 176 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

When	Sport	Weight	Why
2026-09-19	College	30% → 27%	the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

Source	Games	Avg miss
Massey	149	10.11
The market	284	10.62
FPI	208	10.67
SP+	174	10.70
nfelo	49	10.76
Sagarin	274	11.87

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

Score	W-L	Cover rate
0.0 to 1.5	125-128	49%
1.5 to 3.0	5-8	38%
3.0 to 5.0	6-6	50%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 871078 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.22 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

Book	Games	Avg points moved
Kalshi	198	1.50
FanDuel	404	1.49
DraftKings	375	1.49
BetOnline.ag	360	1.39
LowVig.ag	352	1.38
BetRivers	393	1.35
ReBet	176	1.35
MyBookie.ag	289	1.33
Bally Bet	185	1.27
betPARX	185	1.26
BetUS	289	1.22
BetMGM	358	1.19
Fanatics	328	1.14
Caesars	312	1.13
theScore Bet	180	1.12
Bovada	361	1.11
Courtside	147	1.08
TOM	344	1.07
Pinnacle	360	1.06
Hard Rock Bet	183	1.05
BetAnything	164	0.99
Fliff	184	0.72
Hard Rock Bet (OH)	47	0.66
Hard Rock Bet (FL)	47	0.62
Polymarket	39	0.51

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

FPI updated 6 days ago
FPI NFL updated today
Massey college updated today
Massey nfl updated today
SP+ updated 5 days ago
Sagarin updated 6 days ago
Sagarin NFL updated today
nfelo updated today

Log the bets you took

Buck Nasty's Nasty Picks of the Week · Sat Oct 3

1. South Florida Bulls -4.5  -113
   [College] Temple Owls at South Florida Bulls, 6:30pm
   we make it -148, edge +7%

Computer ratings vs the market. Not advice, and small edges lose plenty of the time.