Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Mon 8:26 am · 3 Nasty Picks · TOM just now

Nasty Picks

A ticket written here stays on the board until kickoff and is cashed at the number we posted. Each one says what to do at today's line.

Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh +3.5-112 at BetMGM+4.3%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +3.5 -107. Now Pittsburgh +3.5 -112. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+3.5 open Sunnow +3.5Nasty Number +2.5Cincinnati at ArizonaCincinnati +7.5-112 at BetMGM+3.7%Sat 10:00pm Buck's case ›Still a play Called Mon 12:15am at +7 -102. Now Cincinnati +7.5 -112, half a point better. All 4 ratings (SP+, FPI, Sagarin, Massey) are on this side.+7.5 open Sunnow +7.5Nasty Number +6.5Temple at South FloridaSouth Florida -5.5-110 at Caesars+4.2%Sat 6:30pm Buck's case ›3 of 4 ratings are on this side. FPI makes it -6.0.-5.5 open Sunnow -5.5Nasty Number -7
Buck

Buck's Take

Three Nasty Picks on the counter this week: Pittsburgh +3.5, Cincinnati +7.5 and South Florida -5.5. The number's wrong and I can show my work. That's what a receipt is.

UCF at Houston, UCF +11. Every system has Houston by 6.5; the market has Houston by 11. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at +11.5.

Eastern Michigan at Massachusetts, Massachusetts -5. Every system has Massachusetts by 12.5; the market has Massachusetts by 5. The number at the book misses the Cut. It's a Nasty Pick at -5.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 47 (Navy at Air Force) at 3.5% after the price. Action, not a receipt. Size it like one. The one moving our way is Bowling Green at Miami (OH), Miami (OH) -13, 1.5 points our way since the open.

If you're playing one, it's the receipt: Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech, Pittsburgh +3.5. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Nasty Dogs

Price bets. Each loses more often than not; the payout is what's mispriced.

Pittsburgh at Virginia TechPittsburgh to win+145 at DraftKings+4.5%Fri 6:00pm Buck's case ›Same opinion as the Nasty Pick above. One or the other, not both. Graded on the spread.

Damn Near Nasty

4 games where the ratings agree and the number doesn't. Each row says what would make it a pick. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

4 more later this week
Baylor at Arizona StateBaylor +3.5should be Baylor +1.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuelNeeds a better numberSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
The number is there; the price at the book misses the Cut.Where, best first (Baylor): FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (7.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (7.1%) · Caesars +3.5 at -110 (6.7%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (5.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Eastern Michigan at MassachusettsMassachusetts -5should be Massachusetts -7 · getting 2 ptsNeeds a better numberSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at -4.5 for -108 at BetMGM, or -4 for -115 at Fanatics · half a point awayWhere, best first (Massachusetts): BetMGM -4.5 at -108 (5.0%) · TOM -5 at -105 (4.9%) · Fanatics -4 at -115 (4.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -4.5 at -112 (4.1%) · Caesars -5.5 at -108 (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -4 buys about 1 more win in 100 than -4.5 (the games that land on 4); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. A wash; either is fine.
UCF at HoustonUCF +11-110 at Fanatics · 2.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at +11.5 for -110 at FanDuel · half a point awayWhere, best first (UCF): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +11.5 at -112 (3.0%) · Fanatics +11 at -110 (2.6%) · Caesars +11.5 at -114 (2.6%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -115 (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
UL Monroe at South AlabamaMoved our way · 2 ptsSouth Alabama -13.5-110 at FanDuel · 2.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%Needs a better numberSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Becomes a Nasty Pick at -13 for -110 at FanDuel · half a point awayWhere, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel -13.5 at -110 (2.3%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.9%) · Caesars -14 at -106 (1.4%) · DraftKings -14 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics -14 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.

A Little Nasty

Sneakies. Not full-blown winners. If you want action, this is where I'd go. Dashed line: the Nasty Number. Dot: where the market is now.

Moving our way: Bowling Green at Miami (OH), Miami (OH) -13. Best number on the board, half a point better than Pinnacle, and the line has moved 1.5 points our way since it opened. Still a sneaky. Massey is the holdout at Miami (OH) by 11.

14 more later this week
Bowling Green at Miami (OH)▲Moved our way · 1.5 ptsMiami (OH) -13should be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13.5 at -110 (1.8%) · TOM -13 at -115 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -14 at -105 (1.1%) · FanDuel -14.5 at +100 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: -13 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than -13.5 (the games that land on 13); -115 costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins by a hair.
Ohio at Kent StateMoved our way · 1 ptOhio -3.5should be Ohio -5 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Ohio): TOM -3.5 at -110 (1.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -4 at -105 (1.1%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -112 (0.7%) · Caesars -3.5 at -114 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
California at UNLV▲Moved our way · 1 ptUnder 54should be 52.8 · getting 1 ptSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (-1.6%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 54.5 buys about 3 more wins in 100 than 53.5 (the games that land on 54); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
Navy at Air ForceOver 47should be 49.3 · getting 2.3 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -115 (3.5%) · Caesars 46.5 at -117 (3.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 48¢ (2.2%).Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Fresno State at Washington StateFresno State to winour data says 50 in 100 · +114Sat 8:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Fresno State to win): FanDuel +114 (3.3%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · Caesars +109 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.0%).
Texas State at San Diego StateSan Diego State +3.5should be San Diego State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at CaesarsSat 9:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (San Diego State): Caesars +3.5 at -114 (1.9%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +3 at -105 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.8%).
Arkansas State at LouisianaOver 47should be 48.6 · getting 1.4 ptsSat 7:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 47 at -113 (1.1%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 4 more wins in 100 than 47 (the games that land on 47); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 7 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.
Purdue at IllinoisIllinois -10should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt at BetMGMSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -10 at -105 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars -10 at -108 (0.6%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -118 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.7%).Points or price: -9.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than -10 (the games that land on 10); -118 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.
Louisville at NC StateOver 60.5should be 61.9 · getting 1.5 ptsSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): Fanatics 60 at -110 (2.4%) · Caesars 60.5 at -106 (2.0%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -108 (1.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Liberty at DelawareOver 49.5should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 ptsFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -106 (1.7%) · BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars 49.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.4%).Points or price: 48.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 49.5 (the games that land on 49); 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) costs about 8 more in 100 to break even than -106. The price wins.
Arkansas at Texas A&MOver 51.5should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.0%).
Alabama at Mississippi StateOver 59.5should be 60.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi or Caesars 59.5 at -112 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
UTSA at RiceOver 54.5should be 55.6 · getting 1.1 ptsSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 54.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 54.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Army at Louisiana Tech▲Over 47should be 48 · getting 1.2 ptsSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
Where to bet itWhere, best first (Over): DraftKings or Caesars 46.5 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -114 (0.6%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 45.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than 46.5 (the games that land on 46); 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -110. The price wins.

Moved closer since the Sun 27 Sep, 8:45am build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the Sun 27 Sep, 8:45am build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • UCF at Houston Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +10.5 to +11.0; the Nasty Number moved 0.8; the market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • UL Monroe at South Alabama Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from -15.0 to -13.5; the Nasty Number moved 0.6; the market drifted 1.0 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Baylor at Arizona State Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm · Damn Near Nasty now
    Climbed to Damn Near Nasty.The line went from +4.5 to +3.5; the price from -110 to -106; the Nasty Number moved 2.8; the market drifted 1.3 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Navy at Air Force Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -2.0 to -2.5; the price from -110 to -114; the Nasty Number moved 0.7; the market drifted 0.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Alabama at Mississippi State Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -4.0 to -6.0; the Nasty Number moved 1.2; the market drifted 1.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Bowling Green at Miami (OH) Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -14.5 to -13.0; the price from -105 to -115; the market drifted 0.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • Ohio at Kent State Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from -4.5 to -3.5; the market drifted 0.7 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.
  • California at UNLV Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm · A Little Nasty now
    Climbed to A Little Nasty.The line went from +1.0 to +3.0; the price from -110 to -115; the market drifted 3.8 away from the Nasty Number. That's the market walking the other way, the kind of pick that loses to the close.

And 11 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Sun 10:25pm✓FPISun 7:17am✓SagarinSun 7:17am✓MasseyMon 8:25am✓All 4 in the Sauce.
NFL ratingsnfeloWed 9:06am✓FPISun 7:17am✓SagarinTue 9:06am✓MasseyMon 8:25am✓All 4 in the Sauce. 30 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 28 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago BearsEagles at Bears
NFL 7:15pm
Eagles -3.5
should be Eagles -3.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Eagles by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Eagles by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Eagles than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Eagles by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Eagles by 3.5
FPI
Eagles by 3.5
Sagarin
Eagles by 0.5
Massey
Eagles by 1.5
Nasty Number
Eagles by 3.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Eagles by 3.5opened Eagles by 3.5now Eagles by 3.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
41.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.83.3 pts over the market
FPI
42.40.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
43.62.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.6opened 44now 41.5SunTueWedThuFriSatSunMon

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 41.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-210
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢41.5 -107 50¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+3.5 -10141.5 -109+177-199
All 26 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLEagles ML
TOM+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-210
Kalshi+3.5 -107 50¢41.5 -107 50¢+174 35¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+4 -10841.5 -113+170-210
BetAnything+3.5 +10041.5 -115+175-210
BetMGM—41.5 -108+170-210
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10541.5 -110+180-210
betPARX+4 -10841.5 -113+170-210
BetRivers+4 -10842 -108+170-210
BetUS+3.5 -10541.5 -110+180-210
Bovada+3.5 -10541.5 -115+175-210
Caesars+3.5 -10741.5 -113+173-209
Courtside—61.5 -6611+168-194
DraftKings+3.5 -10841.5 -110+164-198
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 50¢ -108 all-in42.5 49¢ -104 all-in35¢ +171 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-205
FanDuel+3.5 -10541.5 -112+172-210
Fliff+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-225
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-200
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-200
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -10541.5 -110+170-200
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10141.5 -107+180-210
MyBookie.ag+4 -11041.5 -110+175-210
Pinnacle+3.5 -10141.5 -109+177-199
Polymarket+3.5 +10041.5 -104+178-186
ReBet+4 -11041.5 -110+171-204
theScore Bet+3.5 -10541.5 -115+170-200

Marked: best for the Bears side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles -3.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Eagles): Kalshi or DraftKings -3.5 at -112 (-2.7%) · Caesars -3.5 at -113 (-3.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM -3.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · -198 at DraftKings
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Eagles to win): DraftKings -198 (-2.7%) · Fanatics -205 (-3.5%) · Kalshi, Caesars, FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM -208 (-3.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-4.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 41.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Kalshi or BetMGM 41.5 at -107 (-0.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 41.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · FanDuel 41.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · Caesars 41.5 at -113 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +4.0, now +3.5 (the market moved 0.7 toward Bears).

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off nfelo, FPI, Sagarin, Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onEagles by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo+3.5+104
FPI+3.5+107
Sagarin+0.5-118
Massey+1.5-104
Market (22 books)+3.5+178
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points41.543.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles -3.5-115-100-3.4%
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML-198-175-2.7%
TotalOver 41.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Chicago Bears since 09-20 19:25; total has moved down 1.7.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Oct 1

3 gamesBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at New Mexico State AggiesWestern Kentucky at New Mexico State
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 7:00pm
Western Kentucky +2
should be Western Kentucky +1.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico State by 2, the Nasty Number says New Mexico State by 1.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Kentucky than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico State by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
New Mexico State by 1
FPI
Western Kentucky by 0.5
Sagarin
Western Kentucky by 0.5
Massey
Western Kentucky by 4.5
Nasty Number
New Mexico State by 1.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico State by 1.5opened New Mexico State by 1now New Mexico State by 2SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from New Mexico State by 1 to New Mexico State by 2. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.63.1 pts over the market
Massey
561.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.82.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 53.5now 54.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53.5 to 54.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-2 -11054.5 -115-135+115
Pinnacle-2.5 -11154.5 -112-133+113
All 21 books
New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLWestern Kentucky ML
TOM-2 -11054.5 -115-135+115
Bally Bet-1.5 -11253.5 -113-125+104
BetAnything-1.5 -11055 -110——
BetMGM-2.5 -10554.5 -110-135+110
BetOnline.ag-2 -11054.5 -115-135+115
betPARX-1.5 -11253.5 -113-125+104
BetRivers-1.5 -11353.5 -114-127+102
BetUS-2 -11055 -110-135+115
Bovada-2.5 -11554.5 -115-135+115
Caesars-2 -10754.5 -108-129+109
Courtside—76.5 -1330-127+112
DraftKings-2.5 -10554.5 -115-130+110
DraftKings Predictions-1.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 55¢ -132 all-in57¢ -144 all-in49¢ -104 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11054.5 -110-130+110
FanDuel-2.5 -11054.5 -110-130+108
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11053.5 -110-125+105
LowVig.ag-2 -10654.5 -108-135+115
MyBookie.ag-2 -11054.5 -110-133+109
Pinnacle-2.5 -11154.5 -112-133+113
ReBet-2.5 -11154.5 -116-136+107
theScore Bet-2.5 +10054.5 -115-120+100

Marked: best for the New Mexico State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Kentucky +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Western Kentucky): FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · TOM +2 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · Caesars +2 at -113 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Western Kentucky to win · +115 at TOM
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Western Kentucky to win): TOM +115 (0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +110 (-0.2%) · Caesars +109 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +108 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 54.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 54.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings or TOM 54.5 at -115 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 74°F.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.0-103
FPI+0.5-100
Sagarin+0.5-100
Massey+4.5+182
Market (19 books)-2.0-129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.556.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers ML+115+111+0.9%
SpreadWestern Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5-110-109-0.2%
TotalOver 54.5-115-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.1.

TOM: spread -2.0 here against -2.3 consensus.

North Texas Mean Green at Tulsa Golden HurricaneNorth Texas at Tulsa
CFB Thu 1 Oct, 8:00pm
North Texas +1.5
should be North Texas +0.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tulsa by 1.5, the Nasty Number says Tulsa by 0.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more North Texas than the bookmore Tulsa →
Market
Tulsa by 1.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Tulsa by 4.5
FPI
North Texas by 3
Sagarin
Tulsa by 1
Massey
North Texas by 9.5
Nasty Number
Tulsa by 0.50.9 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulsa by 0.5opened Tulsa by 2.5now Tulsa by 1.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Tulsa by 2.5 to Tulsa by 1.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.61.1 pts over the market
Massey
613.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.064% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 57.5now 57.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1.5 -11057.5 -110-120—
Kalshi-1.5 -107 50¢57.5——
Pinnacle-1 -10558 +100-111-105
All 22 books
Tulsa spreadTotal (over)Tulsa MLNorth Texas ML
TOM-1.5 -11057.5 -110-120—
Kalshi-1.5 -107 50¢57.5——
Bally Bet-1.5 -11057.5 -109-124+102
BetAnything-1.5 -11057.5 -110——
BetMGM-1.5 -10857.5 -110-118-102
BetOnline.ag-1.5 -11057.5 -110-120+100
betPARX-1.5 -11057.5 -109-124+102
BetRivers-1.5 -11257.5 -110-125+102
BetUS-1.5 -11057.5 -110-120+100
Bovada-1 -10557.5 -110-115-105
Caesars-1.5 -10857.5 -115-122+104
Courtside—57.5 -110-118+102
DraftKings-1.5 -10857.5 -112-120+100
DraftKings Predictions-1.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 54¢ -127 all-in56¢ -138 all-in51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics-1 -11057.5 -110-120+100
FanDuel-1.5 -11457.5 -114-122+102
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11057.5 -110-125+100
LowVig.ag-1.5 -10657.5 -108-120+100
MyBookie.ag-1.5 -11057.5 -110-122+100
Pinnacle-1 -10558 +100-111-105
ReBet-1.5 -11457.5 -114-124-102
theScore Bet-2.5 -10557.5 -115-125+105

Marked: best for the Tulsa side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Texas +1.5 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (North Texas): FanDuel +1.5 at -106 (0.9%) · BetMGM or TOM +1.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -112 (-0.5%) · Caesars +1.5 at -113 (-0.7%) · Fanatics +1 at -110 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
North Texas to win · +100 at DraftKings
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 50. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (North Texas to win): Caesars +104 (0.7%) · FanDuel +102 (0.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +100 (-0.3%) · BetMGM -102 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 61. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM 57.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 57.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -114 (-1.8%) · Caesars 57.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · North Texas, now Not Nasty. The line went from -2.5 to -1.5.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -1.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward North Texas).

Kalshi thin: North Texas Mean Green +1.5, only $0 available; Over 57.5, only $49 available; Tulsa Golden Hurricane ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulsa by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.5-179
FPI+3.0+132
Sagarin-1.0-107
Massey+9.5+311
Market (19 books)-1.5-115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.558.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Texas Mean Green +1.5-110-110-0.0%
MoneylineNorth Texas Mean Green ML+100+101-0.3%
TotalOver 57.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward North Texas Mean Green since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: spread -1.5 here against -1.2 consensus; total 57.5 here against 57.8 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland BrownsSteelers at Browns
NFL Thu 1 Oct, 7:15pm
Steelers -2.5
should be Steelers -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Steelers by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Steelers by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Steelers than the bookmore Browns →
Market
Steelers by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Massey
Steelers by 1
Nasty Number
Steelers by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Steelers by 2opened Steelers by 2.5now Steelers by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38TOM
The Four
Massey
38.60.6 pts over the market
FPI
35.22.8 pts under the market
Weather
-1.062% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
35.92.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 35.9opened 38now 38SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -11038 -110+117-142
Kalshi+2.5 -107 50¢38.5+114 45¢-148 58¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10338 -107+123-138
All 26 books
Browns spreadTotal (over)Browns MLSteelers ML
TOM+2.5 -11038 -110+117-142
Kalshi+2.5 -107 50¢38.5+114 45¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10937.5 -110+118-143
BetAnything+2.5 -11038 -110+120-140
BetMGM+2.5 -10537.5 -112+120-145
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11038 -110+122-142
betPARX+2.5 -10937.5 -110+118-143
BetRivers+2.5 -10937.5 -110+118-143
BetUS+2 -10538 -110+120-140
Bovada+2.5 -10538 -110+120-140
Caesars+2.5 -10637.5 -118+120-141
Courtside+2.5 -10637.5 -113+127-145
DraftKings+2.5 -10837.5 -115+124-148
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in39.5 46¢ +108 all-in44¢ +117 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10538 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -10637.5 -115+116-136
Fliff+2.5 -10537.5 -115+120-150
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10538 -110+120-140
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -10538 -110+120-140
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -10538 -110+120-140
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10538 -107+122-142
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11038 -110+115-146
Pinnacle+2.5 -10338 -107+123-138
Polymarket+2.5 +10037.5 -113+127—
ReBet+2.5 -10537.5 -120+119-140
theScore Bet+2.5 -10538.5 -105+115-135

Marked: best for the Browns side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Browns +2.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Browns): Fanatics or BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · Caesars or FanDuel +2.5 at -106 (-0.4%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +2.5 at -107 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.0%) · TOM +2.5 at -110 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Browns to win · +124 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Browns to win): DraftKings +124 (0.8%) · Caesars or BetMGM +120 (0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM +117 (44¢ on the app) (-0.6%) · FanDuel +116 (-0.8%) · Fanatics +115 (-1.0%).
Not Nasty
the Under 38.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 35. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 37.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Fanatics or TOM 38 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 37.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 38.5 at 53¢ (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 39.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F, 62% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Over 38.5, only $493 available; Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5, only $136 available; Pittsburgh Steelers ML, only $334 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Taylen Green (Browns), Out; Will Howard (Steelers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Eli Heidenreich (RB, Steelers), Teven Jenkins (G, Browns), Parker Brailsford (C, Browns) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onSteelers by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
FPIhasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns's last game
Massey+1.0+104
Market (22 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.035.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCleveland Browns ML+124+120+0.8%
SpreadCleveland Browns +2.5-105-104-0.2%
TotalUnder 38.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Fri Oct 2

3 gamesBest: Pittsburgh +3.5, Nasty Pick
GameThe call
Pittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech HokiesPittsburgh at Virginia Tech
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Pittsburgh +3.5
should be Pittsburgh +2.5 · getting 1 pt · -112 at BetMGM · was +6
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Pittsburgh +3.5 at -112 at BetMGM. Market says Virginia Tech by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 2.5.

The spread

← more Pittsburgh than the bookmore Virginia Tech →
Market
Virginia Tech by 3TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
a pick'em3.2 pts our side
FPI
Pittsburgh by 2.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 0.52.6 pts our side
Massey
Pittsburgh by 35.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 2.50.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Pittsburgh, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 2.5opened Virginia Tech by 3.5now Virginia Tech by 3.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.72.8 pts under the market
Massey
51.90.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.81.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11552.5 -110-155+130
Kalshi-3.551.5 -126 54¢—+140 40¢
Pinnacle-3.5 +10252.5 -108-168+142
All 22 books
Virginia Tech spreadTotal (over)Virginia Tech MLPittsburgh ML
TOM-3 -11552.5 -110-155+130
Kalshi-3.551.5 -126 54¢—+140 40¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10652.5 -108-167+138
BetAnything-3.5 -11053 -110——
BetMGM-3.5 -10552.5 -110-165+140
BetOnline.ag-3 -11552.5 -110-155+135
betPARX-3.5 -10652.5 -108-167+138
BetRivers-3.5 -10752.5 -109-175+138
BetUS-3 -11552.5 -110-155+134
Bovada-3 -12052.5 -110-170+145
Caesars-3.5 -10752.5 -112-164+139
Courtside—69.5 -1121-171+148
DraftKings-3.5 -10552.5 -110-175+145
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 49¢ -104 all-in51.5 55¢ -132 all-in62¢ -178 all-in41¢ +133 all-in
Fanatics-3.5 -10552.5 -110-170+140
FanDuel-3.5 -10652.5 -114-162+134
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -10552.5 -110-165+140
LowVig.ag-3 -11152.5 -108-155+135
MyBookie.ag-3.5 -11052.5 -110-179+144
Pinnacle-3.5 +10252.5 -108-168+142
ReBet-3.5 -11152.5 -116-186+138
theScore Bet-3.5 -10553.5 -110-155+135

Marked: best for Pittsburgh, higher payout on each moneyline.

Pittsburgh +3.5 · -112 at BetMGM
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Pittsburgh): BetMGM +3.5 at -112 (4.3%) · FanDuel or Caesars +3.5 at -114 (3.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +3.5 at -115 (3.6%) · TOM +3 at -105 (2.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
The call
Pittsburgh to win · +145 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 41. That's value. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Pittsburgh loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Pittsburgh to win): DraftKings +145 (4.5%) · Fanatics, BetMGM, Kalshi or Caesars +140 (3.7%) · FanDuel +134 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 41¢ on the app (+133 all-in) (2.4%) · TOM +130 (1.9%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 52.5 at -106 (-0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM 52.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 48¢ (-1.6%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 52.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 76°F, 34% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Tech Hokies -3.5, only $12 available; Virginia Tech Hokies ML, only $312 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+PK+100
FPI+2.5+120
Sagarin-0.5+100
Massey+3.0+133
Market (19 books)-3.0-148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.550.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePittsburgh Panthers ML+145+120+4.5%
SpreadPittsburgh Panthers +3.5-112-133+4.3%
TotalUnder 52.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.3 toward Pittsburgh Panthers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.9.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -3.4 consensus.

Liberty Flames at Delaware Blue HensLiberty at Delaware
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 49.5
should be 50.8 · getting 1.3 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 49.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Liberty by 7, the Nasty Number says Liberty by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Delaware →
Market
Liberty by 7TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Liberty by 114 pts against us
FPI
Liberty by 4.52.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Liberty by 15.8 pts our side
Massey
Liberty by 5.51.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Liberty by 6.50.5 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Delaware. SP+ at Liberty by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Liberty by 6.5opened Liberty by 7now Liberty by 7SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.93.4 pts over the market
Massey
52.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.83.3 pts over the market
Over 49.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.8opened 49now 49.5SunMon

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 -11049.5 -110+215-275
Kalshi+7.5 -131 55¢49.5——
Pinnacle+7 -10850 -109+224-280
All 21 books
Delaware spreadTotal (over)Delaware MLLiberty ML
TOM+7 -11049.5 -110+215-275
Kalshi+7.5 -131 55¢49.5——
Bally Bet+7.5 -11749.5 -113+230-286
BetAnything+7 -11050 -110——
BetMGM+7 -10549.5 -110+225-275
BetOnline.ag+7 -11049.5 -110+226-275
betPARX+7.5 -11749.5 -113+230-286
BetRivers+7.5 -11749.5 -113+230-295
BetUS+7 -11050 -110+230-275
Bovada+7 -11050 -110+225-275
Caesars+7 -11049.5 -115+220-275
Courtside+7 -10870.5 -1602+225-263
DraftKings+7 -11049.5 -115+220-270
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 51¢ -113 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in32¢ +194 all-in75¢ -335 all-in
Fanatics+7 -11050 -110+225-280
FanDuel+7.5 -12249.5 -106+225-280
Hard Rock Bet+7.5 -11549.5 -110+230-275
LowVig.ag+7 -10649.5 -108+226-275
MyBookie.ag+7 -11050 -110+232-295
Pinnacle+7 -10850 -109+224-280
ReBet+7.5 -12549.5 -116+220-310

Marked: best for Delaware, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +7.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Delaware): BetMGM +7 at -105 (2.2%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -122 (1.4%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM +7 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi +7.5 at 55¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
Delaware to win · +215 at TOM
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 32. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 27. Where, best first (Delaware to win): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +225 (1.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars +220 (0.8%) · TOM +215 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 32¢ on the app (+194 all-in) (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 53. That's 3.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 49.5 at -106 (1.7%) · BetMGM or TOM 49.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings or Caesars 49.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-3.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

Kalshi thin: Liberty Flames -7.5, only $57 available; Over 49.5, only $52 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +225 here against +257 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLiberty by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++11.0+380
FPI+4.5+180
Sagarin+1.0+108
Massey+5.5+193
Market (18 books)+7.0+225
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.552.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +7.0-105-115+2.2%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+215+212+0.3%
TotalOver 49.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.9 consensus; moneyline +225 here against +257 consensus.

Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsPenn State at Northwestern
CFB Fri 2 Oct, 7:00pm
Penn State -2.5
should be Penn State -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Penn State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Penn State than the bookmore Northwestern →
Market
Penn State by 2.5TOM, -104
The Four
SP+
Penn State by 7.5
FPI
Penn State by 2
Sagarin
a pick'em
Nasty Number
Penn State by 2.50 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 2.5opened Penn State by 2.5now Penn State by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.90.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.90.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.9opened 45.5now 45.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10445.5 -110+120-140
Pinnacle+2.5 -10245 -115+118-138
All 21 books
Northwestern spreadTotal (over)Northwestern MLPenn State ML
TOM+2.5 -10445.5 -110+120-140
Bally Bet+3 -12045.5 -108+120-148
BetAnything+3 -11046 -110——
BetMGM+2.5 -10245.5 -110+115-140
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10445.5 -110+120-140
betPARX+3 -12045.5 -108+120-148
BetRivers+3 -12045.5 -109+118-148
BetUS+3 -11046 -110+120-140
Bovada+2.5 -10545.5 -110+120-140
Caesars+2.5 -10345.5 -118+114-136
Courtside—65.5 -3302+122-139
DraftKings+2.5 -10545.5 -112+120-142
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 50¢ -108 all-in45.5 52¢ -117 all-in45¢ +113 all-in57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-140
FanDuel+2.5 -10645.5 -110+114-137
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10545.5 -110+120-145
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10045.5 -108+120-140
MyBookie.ag+2.5 -11045.5 -110+115-141
Pinnacle+2.5 -10245 -115+118-138
ReBet+2.5 -11145.5 -114+110-146
theScore Bet+2.5 -10545.5 -110+115-135

Marked: best for the Northwestern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +2.5 · -104 at TOM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Northwestern): BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-0.5%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-0.7%) · TOM +2.5 at -104 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -106 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Northwestern to win · +120 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): DraftKings or TOM +120 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +115 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars +114 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-1.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 45.5 at -102 (0.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 45.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 60°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +2.5 (the market moved 4.2 toward Northwestern). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.5+269
FPI+2.0+118
SagarinPK+100
Masseyrates Penn State and Northwestern on different scales
Market (19 books)+2.5+125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.544.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +2.5-104-100-1.0%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+120+121-0.2%
TotalUnder 45.5-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.2 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sat Oct 3

51 gamesBest: South Florida -5.5, Nastiest
GameThe call
Temple Owls at South Florida BullsTemple at South Florida
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
South Florida -5.5
should be South Florida -7 · getting 1.5 pts · -110 at Caesars · was -6.5
NastiestBuck's case ›
Buck

Nastiest. Take South Florida -5.5 at -110 at Caesars. Market says South Florida by 6, the Nasty Number says South Florida by 7.

The spread

← more Temple than the bookmore South Florida →
Market
South Florida by 6TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
South Florida by 126.2 pts our side
FPI
South Florida by 6on the market
Sagarin
South Florida by 7.51.5 pts our side
Massey
South Florida by 11.55.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Florida by 71.2 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean South Florida, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 7opened South Florida by 5.5now South Florida by 5.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
60.89.8 pts over the market
Massey
56.85.8 pts over the market
Weather
-1.058% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
57.86.8 pts over the market
Over 51 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.8opened 51now 51SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6 -11051 -110——
Kalshi-6.551.5 -107 50¢-250 70¢—
Pinnacle-6.5 -11051 -110-252+204
All 22 books
South Florida spreadTotal (over)South Florida MLTemple ML
TOM-6 -11051 -110——
Kalshi-6.551.5 -107 50¢-250 70¢—
Bally Bet-5.5 -11351.5 -110-225+175
BetAnything-5.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM-6 -11051.5 -105-235+200
BetOnline.ag-6 -11051 -110——
betPARX-5.5 -11351.5 -110-225+175
BetRivers-5.5 -11351.5 -110-225+175
BetUS-6 -11052 -110——
Bovada-6.5 -11051 -110-250+210
Caesars-5.5 -11051.5 -110-240+196
Courtside—73.5 -1963-232+199
DraftKings-6 -11051.5 -105-238+195
DraftKings Predictions-5.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 53¢ -122 all-in72¢ -284 all-in35¢ +171 all-in
Fanatics-6.5 -11051 -110-245+200
FanDuel-5.5 -12251.5 -105-250+202
Hard Rock Bet-5.5 -11051.5 -110-220+175
LowVig.ag-6 -10651 -108——
MyBookie.ag-6 -11051.5 -110-244+193
Pinnacle-6.5 -11051 -110-252+204
ReBet-6.5 -11151.5 -111-255+184
theScore Bet-5.5 -11551.5 -105-230+195

Marked: best for South Florida, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Florida -5.5 · -110 at Caesars
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (South Florida): Caesars -5.5 at -110 (4.2%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM -6 at -110 (3.2%) · Fanatics -6.5 at -110 (1.8%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -122 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.7%).
The play
South Florida to win · -238 at DraftKings
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (South Florida to win): BetMGM -235 (1.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars -238 (1.3%) · Fanatics -245 (0.7%) · FanDuel or Kalshi -250 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 72¢ on the app (-284 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 51.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 57. Weather takes 1 off. That's 6.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or TOM 51 at -110 (3.3%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (3.1%) · Kalshi 51.5 at 50¢ (2.6%) · Caesars 51.5 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 83°F, 58% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Over, now A Little Nasty · South Florida. The line went from -5.5 to -6.0.

Kalshi thin: South Florida Bulls -6.5, only $108 available; Temple Owls ML, only $325 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-12.0-411
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-7.5-276
Massey-11.5-393
Market (19 books)-6.0-224
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.057.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -5.5-110-131+4.2%
MoneylineSouth Florida Bulls ML-238-254+1.3%
TotalOver 51.0-110-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.2.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 51.2 consensus.

Cincinnati Bearcats at Arizona WildcatsCincinnati at Arizona
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:00pm
Cincinnati +7.5
should be Cincinnati +6.5 · getting 1 pt · -112 at BetMGM · was +8.5
Nasty PickBet itBuck's case ›
Buck

Nasty Pick. Take Cincinnati +7.5 at -112 at BetMGM. Market says Arizona by 7, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 6.5.

The spread

← more Cincinnati than the bookmore Arizona →
Market
Arizona by 7
The Four
SP+
Arizona by 3.53.5 pts our side
FPI
Arizona by 0.56.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona by 5.51.6 pts our side
Massey
Arizona by 43 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona by 6.50.7 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Cincinnati, and the Nasty Number makes the Cut. That's the pick.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 6.5opened Arizona by 7.5now Arizona by 7.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55
The Four
SP+ pace
60.35.5 pts over the market
Massey
54.30.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.32.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.3opened 55now 55SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.555.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-7 -11755 -109-296+235
All 21 books
Arizona spreadTotal (over)Arizona MLCincinnati ML
Kalshi-7.555.5 -112 51¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -11254.5 -108-305+235
BetAnything-7.5 -11055 -110——
BetMGM-7.5 -10554.5 -115-285+230
BetOnline.ag-7 -11655 -110——
betPARX-7.5 -11254.5 -108-305+235
BetRivers-7.5 -11354.5 -109-305+235
BetUS-7 -11555 -110——
Bovada-7 -12055 -110-290+240
Caesars-7 -11554.5 -117-290+235
Courtside—57.5 -163-283+241
DraftKings-7 -11854.5 -118-290+235
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 51¢ -113 all-in54.5 55¢ -132 all-in76¢ -355 all-in31¢ +203 all-in
Fanatics-7.5 -10555 -110-300+240
FanDuel-7.5 -10254.5 -114-275+220
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 -11054.5 -110-300+240
LowVig.ag-7 -11255 -108——
MyBookie.ag-7.5 -11055 -110-310+242
Pinnacle-7 -11755 -109-296+235
ReBet-7.5 -11454.5 -119-330+230
theScore Bet-7.5 -10554.5 -115-280+230

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +7.5 · -112 at BetMGM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Today's number on the posted bet; the receipt above is the call. Where, best first (Cincinnati): BetMGM +7.5 at -112 (3.7%) · DraftKings +7 at -102 (3.1%) · Fanatics +7.5 at -115 (3.0%) · Caesars +7 at -105 (2.3%) · FanDuel +7.5 at -120 (1.9%).
The call
Cincinnati to win · +235 at DraftKings
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 30. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): Fanatics +240 (2.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars +235 (2.3%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +230 (1.8%) · FanDuel +220 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 31¢ on the app (+203 all-in) (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 55.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -114 (-1.1%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (-1.3%) · Fanatics 55 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 54.5 at -117 (-1.7%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -118 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side
Took this bet?

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 75°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -7.0. The market has moved 1.1 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Arizona Wildcats -7.5, only $60 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.5-164
FPI-0.5-102
Sagarin-5.5-194
Massey-4.0-173
Market (19 books)-7.0-270
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.057.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +7.5-112-130+3.7%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+235+211+2.3%
TotalOver 55.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-27 07:20.

Baylor Bears at Arizona State Sun DevilsBaylor at Arizona State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
Baylor +3.5
should be Baylor +1.5 · getting 2 pts at FanDuel · was +4.5
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Baylor +3.5: Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 4.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 7.6% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Baylor than the bookmore Arizona State →
Market
Arizona State by 3
The Four
SP+
Baylor by 36.1 pts our side
FPI
Baylor by 2.55.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona State by 4.51.4 pts against us
Massey
Arizona State by 3on the market
Nasty Number
Arizona State by 1.51.7 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Baylor. Sagarin at Arizona State by 4.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona State by 1.5opened Arizona State by 4.5now Arizona State by 3.5SunMon

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Baylor is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
45.25.6 pts under the market
Massey
52.82 pts over the market
Nasty Number
491.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49opened 51now 51SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Baylor +3.5 · -106 at FanDuel
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Baylor): FanDuel +3.5 at -106 (7.6%) · BetMGM +3.5 at -108 (7.1%) · Caesars +3.5 at -110 (6.7%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -115 (5.6%) · Fanatics +3.5 at -120 (4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Baylor to win · +149 at Caesars
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 43. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Baylor loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Baylor to win): Caesars +149 (7.2%) · FanDuel +146 (6.7%) · DraftKings +142 (6.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +140 (5.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 50.5 at -104 (-0.4%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-6.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Baylor +3.5 · -106 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 86°F.

Across the books: opened -4.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 1.3 toward Baylor, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Full detail
We settle onArizona State by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++3.0+136
FPI+2.5+121
Sagarin-4.5-180
Massey-3.0-148
Market (19 books)-3.0-154
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.049.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBaylor Bears +3.5-106-144+7.6%
MoneylineBaylor Bears ML+149+111+7.2%
TotalUnder 51.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Baylor Bears since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.7.

Sagarin is the holdout at Arizona State by 4.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

Eastern Michigan Eagles at UMass MinutemenEastern Michigan at Massachusetts
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Massachusetts -5
should be Massachusetts -7 · getting 2 pts at TOM
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. Massachusetts -5.0: Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5; the other 3 of 4 our side, 4.9% after the price. That's the Nasty Pick rule with one thing short, the holdout: every system that prices a game has to be on our side. Good bet. Not a Nasty Pick. Size it that way.

The spread

← more Eastern Michigan than the bookmore Massachusetts →
Market
Massachusetts by 5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Massachusetts by 149 pts our side
FPI
Massachusetts by 12.57.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Massachusetts by 6.51.4 pts our side
Massey
Eastern Michigan by 1.56.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 71.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Massachusetts. Massey at Eastern Michigan by 1.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 7opened Massachusetts by 5.5now Massachusetts by 5SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Massachusetts's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
444.5 pts under the market
Massey
501.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
471.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 48now 48.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 48 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-5 -10548.5 -110——
Kalshi———+152 38¢
Pinnacle-4.5 -10148.5 -108-188+157
All 22 books
Massachusetts spreadTotal (over)Massachusetts MLEastern Michigan ML
TOM-5 -10548.5 -110——
Kalshi———+152 38¢
Bally Bet-4 -11348.5 -114-186+148
BetAnything-5.5 -11049 -110——
BetMGM-4.5 -10848.5 -110-190+160
BetOnline.ag-5 -10548.5 -110——
betPARX-4 -11348.5 -114-186+148
BetRivers-4 -11348.5 -114-186+148
BetUS-5 -10548.5 -110——
Bovada-4 -11048.5 -110-185+160
Caesars-5.5 -10848.5 -108-197+165
Courtside—68.5 -1191-188+163
DraftKings-4.5 -11248.5 -110-192+160
DraftKings Predictions-4.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in67¢ -223 all-in40¢ +138 all-in
Fanatics-4 -11548.5 -110-195+160
FanDuel-4.5 -11248.5 -110-194+160
Hard Rock Bet-4.5 -10548.5 -115-185+150
LowVig.ag-5 -10148.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag—48.5 -110——
Pinnacle-4.5 -10148.5 -108-188+157
ReBet-4.5 -11648.5 -116-228+167
theScore Bet-4.5 -11548.5 -110-190+160

Marked: best for Massachusetts, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts -5.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Massachusetts): BetMGM -4.5 at -108 (5.0%) · TOM -5 at -105 (4.9%) · Fanatics -4 at -115 (4.9%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -4.5 at -112 (4.1%) · Caesars -5.5 at -108 (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Massachusetts to win · -190 at BetMGM
We make it 70 in 100 to win. The price says 66. That's value. On Kalshi that's 70 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): BetMGM -190 (4.9%) · DraftKings -192 (4.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -194 (4.5%) · Caesars -197 (4.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 48.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 48.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Massachusetts -5.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: UMass Minutemen ML, only $214 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -4.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.0-483
FPI-12.5-418
Sagarin-6.5-211
Massey+1.5+112
Market (19 books)-5.0-175
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUMass Minutemen -5.0-105-128+4.9%
MoneylineUMass Minutemen ML-190-238+4.9%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -4.5 consensus.

Massey is the holdout at Eastern Michigan by 1.5. Every system that prices a game has to be on our side for a Nasty Pick.

UCF Knights at Houston CougarsUCF at Houston
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UCF +11
should be UCF +9 · getting 2 pts at Fanatics · was +12
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. UCF +11.0: all 4 ratings our side, 2.6% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more UCF than the bookmore Houston →
Market
Houston by 11
The Four
SP+
Houston by 5.55.6 pts our side
FPI
Houston by 74 pts our side
Sagarin
Houston by 7.53.5 pts our side
Massey
Houston by 4.56.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Houston by 91.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 1.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51
The Four
SP+ pace
52.71.6 pts over the market
Massey
51.90.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.31.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.3opened 51now 51SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-10.551.5-458 81¢—
Pinnacle-11 -10351 -109-439+326
All 21 books
Houston spreadTotal (over)Houston MLUCF ML
Kalshi-10.551.5-458 81¢—
Bally Bet-11.5 -11051.5 -108-530+380
BetAnything-12.5 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-11.5 -10551.5 -105-450+340
BetOnline.ag-11 -11551.5 -105——
betPARX-11.5 -11051.5 -108-530+380
BetRivers-11.5 -11251.5 -109-530+380
BetUS-11 -11551.5 -105——
Bovada-10.5 -11051 -110-440+330
Caesars-11.5 -10751.5 -108-440+340
Courtside—57.5 -223-426+350
DraftKings-11.5 -10551.5 -102-440+340
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 55¢ -132 all-in51.5 52¢ -117 all-in82¢ -526 all-in25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics-11 -11051 -110-450+340
FanDuel-11.5 -11051.5 -110-465+350
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11051.5 -110-525+375
LowVig.ag-11 -11151.5 -103——
MyBookie.ag-11.5 -11051 -110-500+360
Pinnacle-11 -10351 -109-439+326
ReBet-11.5 -11451.5 -109-526+340
theScore Bet-11.5 -10551.5 -115-500+360

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +11.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel +11.5 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +11.5 at -112 (3.0%) · Fanatics +11 at -110 (2.6%) · Caesars +11.5 at -114 (2.6%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -115 (2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +345
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 22, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UCF to win): FanDuel +350 (2.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +340 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 25¢ on the app (+270 all-in) (-2.6%).
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 51.5 at -102 (-0.1%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-0.7%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · Caesars 51.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -110 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +11.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 48% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -11.0. The market has moved 0.8 toward UCF, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. A play at +11.5 or better.

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -10.5, only $7 available; Over 51.5, only $141 available; UCF Knights ML, only $21 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 940% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.5-195
FPI-7.0-255
Sagarin-7.5-280
Massey-4.5-179
Market (19 books)-11.0-410
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.052.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +11.0-110-122+2.6%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+345+310priced at 22 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UCF Knights since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 0.7.

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama JaguarsUL Monroe at South Alabama
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
South Alabama -13.5
should be South Alabama -15 · getting 1.5 pts at FanDuel · was -16
Damn Near NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Damn Near Nasty. South Alabama -13.5: all 4 ratings our side, 2.3% after the price, the Cut is 3%. That's the Nasty Pick rule with the proof still pending; the record isn't long enough yet to call it one.

The spread

← more UL Monroe than the bookmore South Alabama →
Market
South Alabama by 14
The Four
SP+
South Alabama by 161.8 pts our side
FPI
South Alabama by 183.9 pts our side
Sagarin
South Alabama by 18.54.4 pts our side
Massey
South Alabama by 172.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Alabama by 151 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean South Alabama. The Nasty Number is 1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Alabama by 15opened South Alabama by 15.5now South Alabama by 13.5Sun

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in South Alabama's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
65.69.8 pts over the market
Massey
59.13.3 pts over the market
Weather
-1.072% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
61.45.5 pts over the market
Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.4opened 56now 56SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.555.5-660 86¢—
Pinnacle-14 -10656 -104-629+431
All 20 books
South Alabama spreadTotal (over)South Alabama MLUL Monroe ML
Kalshi-13.555.5-660 86¢—
Bally Bet-14.5 -10955.5 -109-835+525
BetAnything-14 -11055.5 -110——
BetMGM-13.5 -11255.5 -112-600+450
BetOnline.ag-14 -10556 -105——
betPARX-14.5 -10955.5 -109-835+525
BetRivers-14.5 -10955.5 -110-835+525
BetUS-14 -11056 -105——
Bovada-14 -11055.5 -110-625+430
Caesars-14 -10655.5 -115-675+475
Courtside—46.5 +255-600+471
DraftKings-14 -10855.5 -115-625+455
Fanatics-14 -11055.5 -110-600+440
FanDuel-13.5 -11056.5 -112-610+440
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11055.5 -110-850+525
LowVig.ag-14 -10156 -103——
MyBookie.ag-14 -11055.5 -110-625+430
Pinnacle-14 -10656 -104-629+431
ReBet-14.5 -10955.5 -114-649+400
theScore Bet-13.5 -11056.5 -105-700+450

Marked: best for South Alabama, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama -13.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Alabama): FanDuel -13.5 at -110 (2.3%) · BetMGM -13.5 at -112 (1.9%) · Caesars -14 at -106 (1.4%) · DraftKings -14 at -108 (0.9%) · Fanatics -14 at -110 (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
South Alabama to win · -627 at DraftKings
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 86, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): Fanatics or BetMGM -600 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -610 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -625 (-1.7%) · Kalshi 86¢ (-2.4%) · Caesars -675 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 66 and Massey projects 59. Weather takes 1 off. That's 5.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 55.5 at -110 (2.7%) · BetMGM 55.5 at -112 (2.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars 55.5 at -115 (1.6%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -112 (-0.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 72% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 2.0 away from South Alabama, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It's a play at -13.0.

Kalshi thin: South Alabama Jaguars -13.5, only $51 available; Over 55.5, only $53 available; UL Monroe Warhawks ML, only $10 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Alabama by 1530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-16.0-570
FPI-18.0-739
Sagarin-18.5-787
Massey-17.0-621
Market (19 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.061.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars -13.5-110-121+2.3%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML-627-544priced at 86 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward UL Monroe Warhawks since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.4.

Texas State Bobcats at San Diego State AztecsTexas State at San Diego State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 9:30pm
San Diego State +3.5
should be San Diego State +3 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars
A Little Nasty · San Diego StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, San Diego State. Market says Texas State by 3, the Nasty Number says Texas State by 3. At -114 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas State than the bookmore San Diego State →
Market
Texas State by 3
The Four
SP+
Texas State by 40.7 pts against us
FPI
Texas State by 1.51.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Texas State by 0.52.7 pts our side
Massey
a pick'em3.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Texas State by 30.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean San Diego State. SP+ at Texas State by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas State by 3opened Texas State by 3.5now Texas State by 3.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59
The Four
SP+ pace
63.95 pts over the market
Massey
55.23.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
59.60.6 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 59now 59SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

San Diego State +3.5 · -114 at Caesars
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (San Diego State): Caesars +3.5 at -114 (1.9%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +3.5 at -118 (1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +3 at -105 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
San Diego State to win · +135 at DraftKings
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): DraftKings, Caesars or Fanatics +136 (1.0%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +130 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Over 59.0 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 55. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 58.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · DraftKings 58.5 at -112 (-1.4%) · Caesars 58.5 at -117 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is San Diego State +3.5 · -114 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 82°F.

Full detail
We settle onTexas State by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.0+166
FPI+1.5+110
Sagarin+0.5-100
MasseyPK-100
Market (19 books)+3.0+148
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.059.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +3.5-114-123+1.9%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+135+130+0.8%
TotalOver 59.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
Fresno State Bulldogs at Washington State CougarsFresno State at Washington State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 8:30pm
Fresno State to win
our data says 50 in 100 · +114
A Little Nasty · Fresno StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Fresno State. Market says Washington State by 2, the Nasty Number says Washington State by 0.5. At +114 that's a price bet, not a pick to win, and too thin to be a Nasty Dog.

The spread

← more Fresno State than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Washington State by 2
The Four
SP+
Fresno State by 79.1 pts our side
FPI
Fresno State by 46.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington State by 30.6 pts against us
Massey
Washington State by 52.7 pts against us
Nasty Number
Washington State by 0.51.9 pts off the market
2 of 4 systems lean Fresno State. Sagarin at Washington State by 3 and Massey at Washington State by 5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 3.5 pts

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington State by 0.5opened Fresno State by 1now Washington State by 2.5SunMon

The line has moved 3.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 3.5 points more in Fresno State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
SP+ pace
40.36.3 pts under the market
Massey
45.21.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.83.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 46.5now 46.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Fresno State +2.5 · -108 at Caesars
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Fresno State): Caesars +2.5 at -108 (2.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +2.5 at -110 (2.2%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · +114 at FanDuel
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 47. That's value. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): FanDuel +114 (3.3%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +110 (2.4%) · Caesars +109 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.0%).
A Little Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Caesars 46.5 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Fresno State to win · +114 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -1.0, now -2.0. The market has moved 1.1 away from Fresno State, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Full detail
We settle onWashington State by 0.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+4.0+174
Sagarin-3.0-133
Massey-5.0-185
Market (19 books)-2.0-121
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.542.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML+114-100+3.3%
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs +2.5-108-120+2.7%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Washington State Cougars since 09-27 22:42.

Purdue Boilermakers at Illinois Fighting IlliniPurdue at Illinois
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
Illinois -10
should be Illinois -11 · getting 1 pt at BetMGM
A Little Nasty · IllinoisBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Illinois. Market says Illinois by 10, the Nasty Number says Illinois by 11. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Purdue than the bookmore Illinois →
Market
Illinois by 10
The Four
SP+
Illinois by 177.2 pts our side
FPI
Illinois by 122.2 pts our side
Sagarin
Illinois by 12.52.6 pts our side
Massey
Illinois by 13.53.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Illinois by 110.9 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Illinois. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Illinois by 11opened Illinois by 9.5now Illinois by 10SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5
The Four
SP+ pace
70.710.5 pts over the market
Massey
61.31 pts over the market
Nasty Number
665.7 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.7 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 66opened 60.5now 60.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi—60.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢—
Pinnacle-10 -10960.5 -108-411+309
All 21 books
Illinois spreadTotal (over)Illinois MLPurdue ML
Kalshi—60.5 -112 51¢-404 79¢—
Bally Bet-9.5 -11360.5 -108-480+340
BetAnything-10 -11060 -110——
BetMGM-10 -10559.5 -110-375+300
BetOnline.ag-10 -11060 -110——
betPARX-9.5 -11360.5 -108-480+340
BetRivers-9.5 -11359.5 -109-480+340
BetUS-10 -11060 -110——
Bovada-10 -11060.5 -110-415+310
Caesars-10 -10860 -110-390+305
Courtside—75.5 -715-364+303
DraftKings-10 -10860.5 -108-375+295
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in60.5 53¢ -122 all-in81¢ -488 all-in26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics-10 -11060.5 -110-400+310
FanDuel-9.5 -11859.5 -110-385+300
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11059.5 -110-475+350
LowVig.ag-10 -10660 -108——
MyBookie.ag-10 -11060 -110-380+285
Pinnacle-10 -10960.5 -108-411+309
ReBet-10.5 -10960.5 -111-400+270
theScore Bet-9.5 -11559.5 -110-450+340

Marked: best for Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois -10.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Illinois): BetMGM -10 at -105 (1.3%) · DraftKings or Caesars -10 at -108 (0.6%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -118 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
Illinois to win · -375 at DraftKings
We make it 79 in 100 to win. The price says 79. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 79 cents fair, a play under 75. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -375 (-0.0%) · FanDuel -385 (-0.4%) · Caesars -390 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or Kalshi -400 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 60.5 · -110
SP+ projects 71 and Massey projects 61. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or BetMGM 59.5 at -110 (3.9%) · Caesars 60 at -110 (2.8%) · DraftKings 60.5 at -108 (1.9%) · Fanatics 60.5 at -110 (1.4%) · Kalshi 60.5 at 51¢ (1.0%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Illinois -10.0 · -105 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Illinois Fighting Illini -10.5, only $37 available; Purdue Boilermakers +10.5, only $63 available; Purdue Boilermakers ML, only $41 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIllinois by 1130% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-17.0-657
FPI-12.0-409
Sagarin-12.5-419
Massey-13.5-437
Market (19 books)-10.0-372
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.566.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -10.0-105-111+1.3%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML-375-375-0.0%
TotalOver 60.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

Bowling Green Falcons at Miami (OH) RedHawksBowling Green at Miami (OH)
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Miami (OH) -13Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be Miami (OH) -14.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was -14.5
▲A Little Nasty · Miami (OH)Buck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Miami (OH). Market says Miami (OH) by 13, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 14.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Bowling Green than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 13TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Miami (OH) by 24.511.3 pts our side
FPI
Miami (OH) by 162.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 17.54.6 pts our side
Massey
Miami (OH) by 111.8 pts against us
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 14.51.6 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Miami (OH). Massey at Miami (OH) by 11 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 14.5opened Miami (OH) by 14.5now Miami (OH) by 13SunMon

The line has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1.5 points more in Miami (OH)'s favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.10.4 pts under the market
Massey
432.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.11.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.1opened 46now 45.5SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 46 to 45.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11545.5 -110——
Kalshi——-609 85¢—
Pinnacle-13.5 -11146 -109-618+426
All 20 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLBowling Green ML
TOM-13 -11545.5 -110——
Kalshi——-609 85¢—
Bally Bet-14.5 -10845.5 -109-910+550
BetAnything-14 -11046 -110——
BetMGM-13.5 -11045.5 -110-625+475
BetOnline.ag-13 -11545.5 -110——
betPARX-14.5 -10845.5 -109-910+550
BetRivers-14.5 -10845.5 -109-910+550
BetUS-14 -11045.5 -110——
Bovada-13.5 -11546 -110-625+430
Courtside—53.5 -269-600+471
DraftKings-14 -10545.5 -112-625+455
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 56¢ -138 all-in45.5 54¢ -127 all-in88¢ -900 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-14 -10546 -110-650+475
FanDuel-14.5 +10045.5 -112-630+450
LowVig.ag-13 -11145.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-14 -11046 -110-725+480
Pinnacle-13.5 -11146 -109-618+426
ReBet-14.5 -10545.5 -116-752+440
theScore Bet-14.5 +10045.5 -115-800+500

Marked: best for Miami (OH), higher payout on each moneyline.

Miami (OH) -13.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Miami (OH)): BetMGM -13.5 at -110 (1.8%) · TOM -13 at -115 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -14 at -105 (1.1%) · FanDuel -14.5 at +100 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Miami (OH) to win · -650 at Fanatics
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Miami (OH) to win): Kalshi 85¢ (-1.7%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or FanDuel -625 (-2.0%) · Fanatics -650 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 88¢ on the app (-900 all-in) (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 45.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 46 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · TOM 45.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Miami (OH) -13.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 66°F, 39% chance of rain.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Miami (OH). The line went from -14.5 to -13.0.

Across the books: opened -14.5, now -13.5. The market has moved 0.8 away from Miami (OH), so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Bowling Green Falcons ML, only $119 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.7 consensus.

TOM: total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1623
FPI-16.0-575
Sagarin-17.5-709
Massey-11.0-388
Market (17 books)-13.0-581
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.544.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiami (OH) RedHawks -13.0-115-122+1.5%
MoneylineMiami (OH) RedHawks ML-650-531priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 45.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Bowling Green Falcons since 09-27 22:42.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.7 consensus; total 45.5 here against 45.9 consensus.

Ohio Bobcats at Kent State Golden FlashesOhio at Kent State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Ohio -3.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be Ohio -5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM
A Little Nasty · OhioBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Ohio. Market says Ohio by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio by 5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ohio than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Ohio by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
Ohio by 9.56.2 pts our side
FPI
Ohio by 9.55.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Ohio by 40.7 pts our side
Massey
Ohio by 128.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Ohio by 51.5 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Ohio. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio by 5opened Ohio by 4.5now Ohio by 3.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Ohio's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
55.75.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3.5 -11050.5 -115——
Pinnacle+4 -11350.5 -115+152-181
All 21 books
Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLOhio ML
TOM+3.5 -11050.5 -115——
Bally Bet+3.5 -11050.5 -113+140-177
BetAnything+4 -11050.5 -110——
BetMGM+4 -11250.5 -110+155-190
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -11050.5 -115——
betPARX+3.5 -11050.5 -113+140-177
BetRivers+3.5 -11050.5 -113+140-177
BetUS+3.5 -11050.5 -115——
Bovada+3.5 -10551 -110+155-180
Caesars+3.5 -10650.5 -108+156-190
Courtside—64.5 -586+163-188
DraftKings+4 -11550.5 -112+160-192
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 49¢ -104 all-in40¢ +138 all-in67¢ -223 all-in
Fanatics+4 -11551 -105+150-180
FanDuel+3.5 -10850.5 -114+150-182
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11050.5 -110+140-175
LowVig.ag+3.5 -10650.5 -114——
MyBookie.ag+4 -11050.5 -110+159-197
Pinnacle+4 -11350.5 -115+152-181
ReBet+3.5 -10950.5 -116+152-206
theScore Bet+3.5 -11550.5 -115+145-170

Marked: best for Ohio, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ohio -3.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Ohio): TOM -3.5 at -110 (1.2%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -4 at -105 (1.1%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -112 (0.7%) · Caesars -3.5 at -114 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Ohio to win · -181 at Fanatics
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Ohio to win): Fanatics -180 (0.8%) · FanDuel -182 (0.5%) · Caesars or BetMGM -190 (-0.5%) · DraftKings -192 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 50.5 at -108 (-1.1%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · Fanatics 51 at -105 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -112 (-2.0%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ohio -3.5 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F, 28% chance of rain.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOhio by 521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++9.5+323
FPI+9.5+312
Sagarin+4.0+173
Massey+12.0+407
Market (19 books)+3.5+168
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOhio Bobcats -3.5-110-115+1.2%
MoneylineOhio Bobcats ML-181-186+0.6%
TotalOver 50.5-115-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +3.8 consensus.

Arkansas State Red Wolves at Louisiana Ragin CajunsArkansas State at Louisiana
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Over 47
should be 48.6 · getting 1.4 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Louisiana too: market says Louisiana by 7, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 7, but at -115 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Arkansas State than the bookmore Louisiana →
Market
Louisiana by 7
The Four
SP+
Louisiana by 8.51.9 pts our side
FPI
Louisiana by 92.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Louisiana by 92.3 pts our side
Massey
Louisiana by 7on the market
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 70.4 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Louisiana. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
55.78.5 pts over the market
Massey
51.94.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.86.6 pts over the market
Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.8opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Louisiana -6.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Louisiana): DraftKings or FanDuel -6.5 at -115 (1.1%) · Caesars or BetMGM -6.5 at -118 (0.5%) · Fanatics -7 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
Louisiana to win · -250 at DraftKings
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 71. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Louisiana to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -250 (0.6%) · FanDuel -255 (0.2%) · Fanatics -275 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 73¢ on the app (-300 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 52. That's 6.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 47 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (1.6%) · Caesars 47 at -113 (1.1%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F, 44% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-304
FPI-9.0-308
Sagarin-9.0-308
Massey-7.0-232
Market (18 books)-7.0-246
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.053.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisiana Ragin Cajuns -6.5-115-120+1.1%
MoneylineLouisiana Ragin Cajuns ML-250-258+0.6%
TotalOver 47.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet
California Golden Bears at UNLV RebelsCalifornia at UNLV
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Under 54Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 52.8 · getting 1 pt · was 54.5
▲A Little Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 54.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UNLV by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 2.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more California than the bookmore UNLV →
Market
UNLV by 2.5
The Four
SP+
UNLV by 30.3 pts against us
FPI
UNLV by 1.51.3 pts our side
Sagarin
California by 36 pts our side
Massey
UNLV by 1.51.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
UNLV by 2.50.4 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean California. SP+ at UNLV by 3 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 2.5opened UNLV by 2now UNLV by 3SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in California's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
50.92.9 pts under the market
Massey
49.84 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.43.5 pts under the market
Under 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 53now 54SunMon

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi—52.5 -121 53¢-143 57¢+105 47¢
Pinnacle-3 -10354 -106-144+122
All 21 books
UNLV spreadTotal (over)UNLV MLCalifornia ML
Kalshi—52.5 -121 53¢-143 57¢+105 47¢
Bally Bet-2 -11353.5 -112-130+106
BetAnything-2 -11054 -110——
BetMGM-2.5 -11253.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11553.5 -110——
betPARX-2 -11353.5 -112-130+106
BetRivers-2 -11453.5 -112-130+106
BetUS-2.5 -11553.5 -110——
Bovada-3 -10554 -105-145+125
Caesars-2.5 -10953.5 -106-136+115
Courtside—72.5 -816-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11253.5 -108-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in59¢ -157 all-in48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics-3 -10553.5 -110-145+120
FanDuel-2.5 -11053.5 -110-140+116
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -10553.5 -110-130+105
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11153.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11053.5 -110-134+110
Pinnacle-3 -10354 -106-144+122
ReBet-2.5 -11453.5 -116-140+105
theScore Bet-2.5 -11053.5 -110-140+120

Marked: best for California, higher payout on each moneyline.

California +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (California): Fanatics +3 at -115 (0.6%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -105 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel or Caesars +2.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.7%).
Not Nasty
California to win · +120 at Fanatics
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 45. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (California to win): Fanatics +120 (0.1%) · FanDuel +116 (-0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +115 (-0.9%) · DraftKings +114 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 47¢ (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
the Under 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.5 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 53.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 49¢ (-1.6%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Under. The line went from -2.0 to -2.5.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 3.2 away from California, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: UNLV Rebels -2.5, only $76 available; California Golden Bears +2.5, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-3.0-139
FPI-1.5-110
Sagarin+3.0+150
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-2.5-129
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.050.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCalifornia Golden Bears +3.0-115-118+0.6%
MoneylineCalifornia Golden Bears ML+120+119+0.1%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.2 toward UNLV Rebels since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.7.

Navy Midshipmen at Air Force FalconsNavy at Air Force
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Over 47
should be 49.3 · getting 2.3 pts · was 49
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 10.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Air Force by 3, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore Air Force →
Market
Air Force by 3
The Four
SP+
Air Force by 2.5
FPI
Air Force by 4
Sagarin
Air Force by 3.5
Massey
Navy by 0.5
Nasty Number
Air Force by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Air Force by 3opened Air Force by 3now Air Force by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
58.411.5 pts over the market
Massey
57.410.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.910.9 pts over the market
Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 10.9 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi—48.5 +101 48¢—+118 44¢
Pinnacle-3 -10747 -109-150+127
All 21 books
Air Force spreadTotal (over)Air Force MLNavy ML
Kalshi—48.5 +101 48¢—+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11347.5 -108-141+114
BetAnything-2.5 -11047 -110——
BetMGM-3 -10846.5 -115-145+120
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -12047 -110——
betPARX-2.5 -11347.5 -108-141+114
BetRivers-2.5 -11347.5 -108-141+114
BetUS-2.5 -12047 -110——
Bovada-3 -11047 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -11446.5 -117-143+121
Courtside—67.5 -2279-152+133
DraftKings-2.5 -12046.5 -115-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in45.5 56¢ -138 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
Fanatics-3 -10547 -110-150+125
FanDuel-2.5 -12046.5 -110-142+116
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11047.5 -110-140+115
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11647 -108——
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11047 -110-146+119
Pinnacle-3 -10747 -109-150+127
ReBet-2.5 -12546.5 -119-153+115
theScore Bet-2.5 -12046.5 -110-140+120

Marked: best for the Air Force side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Air Force -2.5 · -114 at Caesars
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Air Force): Caesars -2.5 at -114 (-1.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings -2.5 at -120 (-2.3%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (-2.6%) · BetMGM -3 at -108 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
Air Force to win · -145 at BetMGM
We make it 57 in 100 to win. The price says 59. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 57 cents fair, a play under 52. Where, best first (Air Force to win): FanDuel or Caesars -142 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -145 (-2.2%) · Fanatics -150 (-3.0%) · DraftKings -155 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-5.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 57. That's 10.9 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -115 (3.5%) · Caesars 46.5 at -117 (3.1%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 48¢ (2.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now -3.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Air Force).

Kalshi thin: Air Force Falcons -2.5, only $57 available; Navy Midshipmen +2.5, only $2 available; Under 48.5, only $64 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-2.5-121
FPI-4.0-169
Sagarin-3.5-151
Massey+0.5+102
Market (19 books)-3.0-136
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.057.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAir Force Falcons -2.5-114-110-1.0%
MoneylineAir Force Falcons ML-145-133-2.3%
TotalOver 47.0-110-127shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Air Force Falcons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.8.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State BulldogsAlabama at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Over 59.5
should be 60.6 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 59.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.6 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Alabama by 6, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 6.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Alabama than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Alabama by 6
The Four
SP+
Alabama by 5.5
FPI
Alabama by 8
Sagarin
Alabama by 4
Massey
Alabama by 9.5
Nasty Number
Alabama by 6.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 6.5opened Alabama by 6now Alabama by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5
The Four
SP+ pace
644.5 pts over the market
Massey
62.32.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
63.23.6 pts over the market
Over 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 63.2opened 59.5now 59.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.5 -112 51¢59.5 -112 51¢——
Pinnacle+6 -10859.5 -109+188-229
All 21 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLAlabama ML
Kalshi+6.5 -112 51¢59.5 -112 51¢——
Bally Bet+6 -11259.5 -112+175-215
BetAnything+6.5 -11060 -110——
BetMGM+6.5 -11059.5 -110+180-220
BetOnline.ag+6 -10559.5 -110——
betPARX+6 -11259.5 -112+175-215
BetRivers+6 -11359.5 -113+175-220
BetUS+6 -10559.5 -110——
Bovada+6 -11059.5 -110+190-230
Caesars+6 -11059.5 -112+179-213
Courtside—77.5 -1191+184-213
DraftKings+6 -10859.5 -110+180-218
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 53¢ -122 all-in60.5 52¢ -117 all-in37¢ +156 all-in70¢ -257 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11059.5 -110+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10559.5 -110+176-210
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10559.5 -110+175-210
LowVig.ag+6 -10159.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag+6.5 -11060 -110+190-238
Pinnacle+6 -10859.5 -109+188-229
ReBet+6.5 -11459.5 -114+181-250
theScore Bet+5.5 -10559.5 -110+175-210

Marked: best for the Mississippi State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Alabama -6.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Alabama): FanDuel -5.5 at -115 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars -6 at -112 (-2.1%) · BetMGM -6.5 at -108 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Alabama to win · -219 at DraftKings
We make it 68 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 68 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Alabama to win): FanDuel -210 (-0.1%) · Caesars -213 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -218 (-1.0%) · Fanatics -225 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 70¢ on the app (-257 all-in) (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 59.5 · -110
SP+ projects 64 and Massey projects 62. That's 3.6 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Kalshi or Caesars 59.5 at -112 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 59.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 39% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +3.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Alabama).

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5, only $174 available; Under 59.5, only $12 available; Mississippi State Bulldogs ML, only $117 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 6.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+197
FPI+8.0+293
Sagarin+4.0+165
Massey+9.5+325
Market (19 books)+6.0+207
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.563.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAlabama Crimson Tide -6.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineAlabama Crimson Tide ML-219-209-1.1%
TotalOver 59.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Louisville Cardinals at NC State WolfpackLouisville at NC State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 60.5
should be 61.9 · getting 1.5 pts · was 59.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 60.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Louisville by 6, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Louisville than the bookmore NC State →
Market
Louisville by 6
The Four
SP+
Louisville by 4.5
FPI
Louisville by 6
Sagarin
a pick'em
Massey
Louisville by 4
Nasty Number
Louisville by 5.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 5.5opened Louisville by 6now Louisville by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5
The Four
SP+ pace
67.47.1 pts over the market
Massey
63.53.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
65.55.2 pts over the market
Over 60.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.2 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 65.5opened 60.5now 60.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

NC State +6.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (NC State): Fanatics +6 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +6 at -112 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -118 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
NC State to win · +182
We make it 34 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 34 cents fair, a play under 30. Where, best first (NC State to win): BetMGM or Caesars +188 (-0.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +185 (-0.9%) · FanDuel +180 (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 60.5 · -110
SP+ projects 67 and Massey projects 64. That's 5.2 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 60 at -110 (2.4%) · Caesars 60.5 at -106 (2.0%) · BetMGM 60.5 at -108 (1.5%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 60.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 60.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 60.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 79°F, 30% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward NC State). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++4.5+175
FPI+6.0+200
SagarinPK+100
Massey+4.0+170
Market (19 books)+6.0+207
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.565.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNC State Wolfpack +6.0-110-105-1.1%
MoneylineNC State Wolfpack ML+182+193-1.2%
TotalOver 60.5-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-25 11:56; total has moved up 0.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Arkansas Razorbacks at Texas A&M AggiesArkansas at Texas A&M
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 51.5
should be 52.6 · getting 1.1 pts
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 51.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.8 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas A&M by 14, the Nasty Number says Texas A&M by 14. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Arkansas than the bookmore Texas A&M →
Market
Texas A&M by 14
The Four
SP+
Texas A&M by 11.5
FPI
Texas A&M by 15
Sagarin
Texas A&M by 16.5
Massey
Texas A&M by 12
Nasty Number
Texas A&M by 140.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas A&M by 14opened Texas A&M by 14now Texas A&M by 14SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5
The Four
SP+ pace
57.56 pts over the market
Massey
553.5 pts over the market
Weather
-1.053% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
55.33.8 pts over the market
Over 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.3opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Kalshi————
Pinnacle-14 -11051.5 -110-649+441
All 20 books
Texas A&M spreadTotal (over)Texas A&M MLArkansas ML
Bally Bet-14.5 -10851.5 -110-590+430
BetAnything-14 -11052 -110——
BetMGM-14 -11051.5 -110-625+475
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -10551.5 -110——
betPARX-14.5 -10851.5 -110-590+430
BetRivers-14.5 -10951.5 -112-625+425
BetUS-14.5 -10551.5 -110——
Bovada-14 -11051.5 -110-650+450
Caesars-14.5 -10351.5 -110-675+475
Courtside—50.5 +100-646+508
DraftKings-14 -11251.5 -110-675+490
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 56¢ -138 all-in51.5 54¢ -127 all-in89¢ -1011 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-14 -11051.5 -110-650+475
FanDuel-13.5 -11851.5 -110-670+470
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11051.5 -110-600+425
LowVig.ag-14.5 -10151.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-14 -11051.5 -110-676+460
Pinnacle-14 -11051.5 -110-649+441
ReBet-14.5 -11151.5 -116-725+420
theScore Bet-14.5 +10051.5 -110-800+500

Marked: best for the Texas A&M side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Arkansas +14.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Arkansas): DraftKings or BetMGM +14 at -108 (-1.7%) · Caesars +14.5 at -118 (-1.9%) · Fanatics +14 at -110 (-2.2%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -104 (-2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Arkansas to win · +458
We make it 17 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Arkansas to win): DraftKings +490 (0.3%) · Fanatics, Caesars, BetMGM or FanDuel +475 (-0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 55. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 51.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F, 53% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -16.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward Arkansas).

Kalshi thin: Texas A&M Aggies -14.5, only $136 available; Arkansas Razorbacks +14.5, only $20 available; Over 51.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas A&M by 1430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-11.5-393
FPI-15.0-547
Sagarin-16.5-602
Massey-12.0-405
Market (19 books)-14.0-575
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.555.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArkansas Razorbacks +14.0-110-101-2.2%
MoneylineArkansas Razorbacks ML+458+478priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Arkansas Razorbacks since 09-27 07:20.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

UTSA Roadrunners at Rice OwlsUTSA at Rice
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Over 54.5
should be 55.6 · getting 1.1 pts · was 53.5
A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 54.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 3.7 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UTSA by 10, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 10.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UTSA than the bookmore Rice →
Market
UTSA by 10
The Four
SP+
UTSA by 12
FPI
UTSA by 11.5
Sagarin
UTSA by 11
Massey
UTSA by 13.5
Nasty Number
UTSA by 10.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTSA by 10.5opened UTSA by 10now UTSA by 10SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.95.5 pts over the market
Massey
58.54 pts over the market
Weather
-1.064% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
58.23.7 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.7 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.2opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi—54.5 -116 52¢—-430 80¢
Pinnacle+10 -11254.5 -108+306-407
All 21 books
Rice spreadTotal (over)Rice MLUTSA ML
Kalshi—54.5 -116 52¢—-430 80¢
Bally Bet+10.5 -11254.5 -114+375-530
BetAnything+11 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM+10 -10554.5 -110+320-400
BetOnline.ag+10 -10454.5 -115——
betPARX+10.5 -11254.5 -114+375-530
BetRivers+10.5 -11354.5 -115+375-530
BetUS+10 -10554.5 -115——
Bovada+10 -11554.5 -110+305-410
Caesars+10.5 -11354.5 -112+325-420
Courtside—56.5 -153+329-397
DraftKings+10.5 -11554.5 -110+320-410
DraftKings Predictions+10.5 56¢ -138 all-in54.5 53¢ -122 all-in25¢ +270 all-in82¢ -526 all-in
Fanatics+10 -11054.5 -110+310-400
FanDuel+10.5 -11454.5 -110+310-400
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11054.5 -115+375-525
LowVig.ag+10 +10054.5 -114——
MyBookie.ag+10.5 -11054.5 -110+320-429
Pinnacle+10 -11254.5 -108+306-407
ReBet+10.5 -11454.5 -114+300-461
theScore Bet+10.5 -11554.5 -110+300-400

Marked: best for the Rice side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

UTSA -10.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (UTSA): Fanatics -10 at -110 (-0.2%) · BetMGM -10 at -112 (-0.7%) · DraftKings -10.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · FanDuel -10.5 at -106 (-1.2%) · Caesars -10.5 at -107 (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UTSA to win · -410 at DraftKings
We make it 79 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UTSA to win): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM -400 (-1.3%) · DraftKings -410 (-1.7%) · Caesars -420 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 80¢ (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 82¢ on the app (-526 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 58. Weather takes 1 off. That's 3.7 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 54.5 at -110 (0.4%) · Caesars 54.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 64% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Kalshi thin: Rice Owls +9.5, only $22 available; UTSA Roadrunners -9.5, only $88 available; Rice Owls ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 10.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+404
FPI+11.5+398
Sagarin+11.0+387
Massey+13.5+452
Market (19 books)+10.0+380
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.558.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUTSA Roadrunners -10.0-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineUTSA Roadrunners ML-410-369priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.0.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Army Black Knights at Louisiana Tech BulldogsArmy at Louisiana Tech
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Over 47
should be 48 · getting 1.2 pts
▲A Little Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 47.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 4.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 3. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Louisiana Tech →
Market
Army by 3
The Four
SP+
Army by 7
FPI
Army by 2
Sagarin
Louisiana Tech by 0.5
Massey
Army by 4.5
Nasty Number
Army by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Army by 3opened Army by 3.5now Army by 3SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Army by 3.5 to Army by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
52.75.9 pts over the market
Massey
50.84 pts over the market
Weather
-1.051% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
50.84 pts over the market
Over 47 is a little nasty. Our total is 4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.8opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi———-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3 -11347 -109+127-149
All 20 books
Louisiana Tech spreadTotal (over)Louisiana Tech MLArmy ML
Kalshi———-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -12446.5 -110+120-148
BetAnything+3 -11046 -110——
BetMGM+3 -11046.5 -112+125-150
BetOnline.ag+3 -11547 -110——
betPARX+3.5 -12446.5 -110+120-148
BetRivers+3.5 -12446.5 -110+120-148
BetUS+3 -11547 -110——
Bovada+3 -11547 -110+130-150
Caesars+3 -10946.5 -110+132-157
Courtside—45.5 -105+133-152
DraftKings+3 -11046.5 -110+130-155
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in45.5 56¢ -138 all-in45¢ +113 all-in62¢ -178 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -13547 -110+130-155
FanDuel+3.5 -12246.5 -114+130-156
LowVig.ag+3 -11147 -108——
MyBookie.ag+3 -11046.5 -110+126-155
Pinnacle+3 -11347 -109+127-149
ReBet+2.5 -10346.5 -116+121-161
theScore Bet+2.5 +10546.5 -115+125-145

Marked: best for the Louisiana Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Army -3.5 · +110 at Fanatics
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 48 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Army): Fanatics -3.5 at +110 (-0.3%) · BetMGM -3 at -108 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or Caesars -3 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -3.5 at +100 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.7%).
Not Nasty
Army to win · -153
We make it 59 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 59 cents fair, a play under 54. Where, best first (Army to win): BetMGM -150 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel -155 (-1.7%) · Caesars -157 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 62¢ (-4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (-4.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. That's 4.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings or Caesars 46.5 at -110 (1.5%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -112 (1.0%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -114 (0.6%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 47.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F, 51% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Moved up since the last run: was Not Nasty, now A Little Nasty · Over.

Kalshi thin: Louisiana Tech Bulldogs ML, only $4 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onArmy by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++7.0+230
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5+100
Massey+4.5+177
Market (18 books)+3.0+139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.050.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadArmy Black Knights -3.5+110+111-0.3%
MoneylineArmy Black Knights ML-153-144-1.5%
TotalOver 47.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

San Jose State Spartans at Hawaii Rainbow WarriorsSan José State at Hawai'i
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 10:59pm
Hawai'i -3
should be Hawai'i -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -3.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Hawai'i by 3, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San José State than the bookmore Hawai'i →
Market
Hawai'i by 3
The Four
SP+
Hawai'i by 52.2 pts our side
FPI
Hawai'i by 4.51.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 52 pts our side
Massey
Hawai'i by 2.50.5 pts against us
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 3.50.5 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Hawai'i. Massey at Hawai'i by 2.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 3.5opened Hawai'i by 3now Hawai'i by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
SP+ pace
46.95 pts under the market
Massey
50.71.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.83.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.8opened 52now 52SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Hawai'i -3.0 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): DraftKings -3 at -102 (2.6%) · Caesars or BetMGM -2.5 at -118 (2.3%) · Fanatics -3 at -105 (1.9%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · -150 at Fanatics
We make it 61 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 61 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): FanDuel -146 (1.7%) · DraftKings -148 (1.4%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -150 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 61¢ on the app (-170 all-in) (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 52.5 at -115 (0.3%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (0.0%) · Caesars 51.5 at -106 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Hawai'i -3.0 · -102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 83°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -3.5, now -3.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Hawai'i, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-5.0-187
FPI-4.5-175
Sagarin-5.0-184
Massey-2.5-120
Market (19 books)-3.0-138
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.048.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.0-102-113+2.6%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-150-157+1.1%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward San Jose State Spartans since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 5.6.

Florida Gators at Missouri TigersFlorida at Missouri
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Florida -5
should be Florida -4.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Florida by 5, the Nasty Number says Florida by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Florida than the bookmore Missouri →
Market
Florida by 5
The Four
SP+
Florida by 2.5
FPI
Florida by 7.5
Sagarin
Florida by 3.5
Massey
Florida by 3.5
Nasty Number
Florida by 4.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 4.5opened Florida by 4.5now Florida by 5.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Florida by 4.5 to Florida by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
54.91.6 pts under the market
Massey
57.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.3on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.3opened 56.5now 56.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.556.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+5.5 -11756.5 -110+171-206
All 21 books
Missouri spreadTotal (over)Missouri MLFlorida ML
Kalshi+5.556.5+189 33¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11357 -108+165-205
BetAnything+4.5 -11056.5 -110——
BetMGM+5 -11056.5 -110+170-210
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11556.5 -110——
betPARX+5.5 -11357 -108+165-205
BetRivers+5.5 -11457 -109+165-210
BetUS+4.5 -11556.5 -110——
Bovada+5 -11556.5 -110+170-200
Caesars+4.5 -10756 -110+178-213
Courtside—71.5 -678+174-200
DraftKings+4.5 -10856.5 -112+170-205
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 54¢ -127 all-in57.5 51¢ -113 all-in37¢ +156 all-in69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics+4.5 -10557 -105+175-215
FanDuel+4.5 -10456.5 -112+176-215
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11056.5 -115+165-200
LowVig.ag+4.5 -11156.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11056 -110+178-222
Pinnacle+5.5 -11756.5 -110+171-206
ReBet+5.5 -11456.5 -114+170-232
theScore Bet+5.5 -11556.5 -115+175-210

Marked: best for the Missouri side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +5.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Missouri): FanDuel +4.5 at -104 (-1.2%) · Fanatics +4.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · BetMGM +5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Caesars +4.5 at -107 (-1.9%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -108 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Missouri to win · +189 (33¢) at Kalshi
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 35. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Missouri to win): Kalshi 33¢ (1.0%) · Caesars +178 (-0.4%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +176 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +170 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-3.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, FanDuel or BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (-1.9%) · Fanatics 57 at -115 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 56.5 at 51¢ (-2.7%) · Caesars 56 at -110 (-3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 70°F, 22% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +5.0 (the market moved 2.5 toward Florida). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $27 available; Over 56.5, only $335 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++2.5+124
FPI+7.5+272
Sagarin+3.5+151
Massey+3.5+152
Market (19 books)+5.0+191
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.556.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+189+181+1.0%
SpreadMissouri Tigers +5.0-110-103-1.7%
TotalUnder 56.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Florida Gators since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 2.5.

Auburn Tigers at Tennessee VolunteersAuburn at Tennessee
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Tennessee -7
should be Tennessee -7.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was -8
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Tennessee by 7, the Nasty Number says Tennessee by 7.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Auburn than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Tennessee by 7
The Four
SP+
Tennessee by 8.51.4 pts our side
FPI
Tennessee by 7.50.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Tennessee by 80.8 pts our side
Massey
Tennessee by 91.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Tennessee by 7.50.3 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Tennessee. The Nasty Number is 0.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tennessee by 7.5opened Tennessee by 7.5now Tennessee by 7FriSatSunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Tennessee's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.15.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.20.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.72.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.7opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi—54.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢—
Pinnacle-7 -10454.5 -106-275+221
All 21 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLAuburn ML
Kalshi—54.5 -112 51¢-290 73¢—
Bally Bet-7 -11355 -112-286+225
BetAnything-7 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM-7 -10554.5 -110-275+220
BetOnline.ag-7 -10554.5 -110——
betPARX-7 -11355 -112-286+225
BetRivers-7 -11455 -113-295+225
BetUS-7 -10554.5 -110——
Bovada-7 -10554.5 -105-275+225
Caesars-7 -11054.5 -112-275+220
Courtside—74.5 -1668-263+225
DraftKings-7 -10554.5 -110-270+220
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 56¢ -138 all-in54.5 53¢ -122 all-in75¢ -335 all-in31¢ +203 all-in
Fanatics-7 -10554.5 -110-275+220
FanDuel-7.5 -10254.5 -110-265+215
Hard Rock Bet-7.5 +10055.5 -105-275+225
LowVig.ag-7 -10154.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-7 -11054.5 -110-280+218
Pinnacle-7 -10454.5 -106-275+221
ReBet-7.5 -10354.5 -114-295+208
theScore Bet-7.5 +10554.5 -110-250+210

Marked: best for Tennessee, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tennessee -7.0 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Tennessee): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -7 at -105 (1.4%) · Caesars -7 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel -7.5 at -102 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
Tennessee to win · -275 at Fanatics
We make it 73 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 73 cents fair, a play under 68. Where, best first (Tennessee to win): FanDuel -265 (0.3%) · DraftKings -270 (-0.1%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -275 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 73¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 75¢ on the app (-335 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (0.0%) · Caesars 54.5 at -109 (-0.2%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tennessee -7.0 · -105 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F, 43% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -8.0, now -7.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Tennessee, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers -6.5, only $63 available; Auburn Tigers +6.5, only $103 available; Under 54.5, only $161 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTennessee by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.5-302
FPI-7.5-267
Sagarin-8.0-285
Massey-9.0-306
Market (19 books)-7.0-252
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.551.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Volunteers -7.0-105-111+1.4%
MoneylineTennessee Volunteers ML-275-269-0.5%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-25 15:25; total has moved down 3.4.

Syracuse Orange at UConn HuskiesSyracuse at UConn
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
UConn +6
should be UConn +4.5 · getting 1.5 pts at BetMGM · was +7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Syracuse by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Syracuse by 4.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Syracuse than the bookmore UConn →
Market
Syracuse by 5.5TOM, -107
The Four
SP+
Syracuse by 0.55.2 pts our side
FPI
Syracuse by 5.5on the market
Sagarin
Syracuse by 60.3 pts against us
Massey
Syracuse by 23.3 pts our side
Nasty Number
Syracuse by 4.50.9 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean UConn. Sagarin at Syracuse by 6 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Syracuse by 4.5opened Syracuse by 5.5now Syracuse by 6SunMon

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UConn's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.63.4 pts under the market
Massey
54.82.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.70.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.7opened 52now 52SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+5.5 -10752 -110——
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢—+174 35¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10152 -110+177-214
All 22 books
UConn spreadTotal (over)UConn MLSyracuse ML
TOM+5.5 -10752 -110——
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢—+174 35¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11252.5 -113+170-215
BetAnything+5.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM+6 -10851.5 -115+180-220
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -10752 -110——
betPARX+5.5 -11252.5 -113+170-215
BetRivers+5.5 -11252.5 -113+170-215
BetUS+5.5 -10552 -110——
Bovada+5 -11052 -110+175-210
Caesars+5.5 -11351.5 -117+187-230
Courtside—62.5 -391+189-220
DraftKings+5.5 -10851.5 -115+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 55¢ -132 all-in36¢ +163 all-in71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics+5.5 -11552 -110+180-220
FanDuel+5.5 -10852.5 -110+184-225
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11052.5 -110+170-210
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10352 -108——
MyBookie.ag+5.5 -11052 -110+182-228
Pinnacle+4.5 -10152 -110+177-214
ReBet+5.5 -11452.5 -111+174-238
theScore Bet+5.5 -11052.5 -110+190-225

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +6.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UConn): BetMGM +6 at -108 (0.9%) · TOM +5.5 at -107 (-0.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +5.5 at -108 (-0.4%) · Caesars +5.5 at -113 (-1.5%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +5.5 at -115 (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
UConn to win · +180 at Fanatics
We make it 36 in 100 to win. The price says 36. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 36 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (UConn to win): Caesars +187 (0.8%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +185 (0.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +180 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 35¢ (-0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · Caesars 51.5 at -104 (-2.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 52 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +6.0 · -108 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +5.0. The market has moved 2.5 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Syracuse Orange -5.5, only $50 available; Over 52.5, only $49 available; Under 52.5, only $312 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSyracuse by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5-100
FPI+5.5+193
Sagarin+6.0+199
Massey+2.0+118
Market (19 books)+5.5+199
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.051.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +6.0-108-112+0.9%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+180+181-0.1%
TotalUnder 52.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward UConn Huskies since 09-27 07:20.

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +5.0 consensus.

Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina GamecocksKentucky at South Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:15pm
Kentucky +3
should be Kentucky +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at BetMGM · was +6
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says South Carolina by 3, the Nasty Number says South Carolina by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kentucky than the bookmore South Carolina →
Market
South Carolina by 3TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
South Carolina by 1.51.3 pts our side
FPI
South Carolina by 2.50.4 pts our side
Sagarin
South Carolina by 40.8 pts against us
Massey
South Carolina by 1.51.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
South Carolina by 2.50.3 pts off the market
3 of 4 systems lean Kentucky. Sagarin at South Carolina by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here.

The spread this week

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Carolina by 2.5opened South Carolina by 3now South Carolina by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.52.5 pts over the market
Massey
52.51.5 pts under the market
Weather
-1.050% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.50.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.5opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-3 -11054 -115——
Kalshi-2.553.5 -116 52¢-148 58¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-3 -11354 -112-161+136
All 22 books
South Carolina spreadTotal (over)South Carolina MLKentucky ML
TOM-3 -11054 -115——
Kalshi-2.553.5 -116 52¢-148 58¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-3 -10953.5 -112-155+128
BetAnything-3 -11553 -110——
BetMGM-3 -11253.5 -112-160+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -11054 -115——
betPARX-3 -10953.5 -112-155+128
BetRivers-3 -11053.5 -113-157+125
BetUS-3 -11554 -115——
Bovada-3 -11554 -115-160+135
Caesars-3 -10453.5 -112-154+130
Courtside—69.5 -780-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10853.5 -112-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in62¢ -178 all-in45¢ +113 all-in
Fanatics-3 -11054.5 -110-160+135
FanDuel-2.5 -12853.5 -115-160+132
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -12553.5 -110-155+130
LowVig.ag-3 -10654 -114——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11054 -110-159+130
Pinnacle-3 -11354 -112-161+136
ReBet-3.5 +10053.5 -116-166+124
theScore Bet-2.5 -12554.5 -105-145+125

Marked: best for Kentucky, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kentucky +3.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kentucky): BetMGM +3 at -105 (0.8%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 46¢ (0.6%) · Fanatics or TOM +3 at -110 (-0.3%) · FanDuel +2.5 at +104 (-0.6%) · DraftKings +3 at -112 (-0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Kentucky to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (Kentucky to win): Fanatics +135 (1.1%) · FanDuel +132 (0.6%) · DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM +130 (0.2%) · Kalshi 43¢ (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-3.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 54.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 53. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 54.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · TOM 54 at -105 (-0.7%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 53.5 at -105 (-1.9%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars 53.5 at -107 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-6.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kentucky +3.0 · -105 at BetMGM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 82°F, 50% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened -6.0, now -3.0. The market has moved 3.0 toward Kentucky, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: South Carolina Gamecocks -2.5, only $208 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Carolina by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-1.5-113
FPI-2.5-125
Sagarin-4.0-167
Massey-1.5-111
Market (19 books)-3.0-146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.053.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKentucky Wildcats +3.0-105-109+0.8%
MoneylineKentucky Wildcats ML+130+129+0.2%
TotalUnder 54.0-105-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.0 toward Kentucky Wildcats since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 4.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Boston College Eagles at SMU MustangsBoston College at SMU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Under 57
should be 54.9 · getting 2 pts · was 57.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 21.

The spread

← more Boston College than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 21
The Four
SP+
SMU by 20
FPI
SMU by 16
Sagarin
SMU by 19
Massey
SMU by 15.5
Nasty Number
SMU by 19.51.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 19.5opened SMU by 21now SMU by 21SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57
The Four
SP+ pace
51.35.5 pts under the market
Massey
52.54.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.94.9 pts under the market
Under 57 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 57now 57SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.556.5 -121 53¢-1236 92¢—
Pinnacle-21 -10857 -110-1550+816
All 21 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLBoston College ML
Kalshi-20.556.5 -121 53¢-1236 92¢—
Bally Bet-20.5 -11556.5 -110-1667+900
BetAnything-20.5 -11057 -110——
BetMGM-20.5 -11256.5 -110-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11557 -110——
betPARX-20.5 -11556.5 -110-1667+900
BetRivers-20.5 -11556.5 -112-2000+850
BetUS-20.5 -11557 -110——
Bovada-21 -11057 -110-1600+800
Caesars-20.5 -11056.5 -110-1700+950
Courtside—77.5 -2279-1467+953
DraftKings-20.5 -11556.5 -110-1600+900
DraftKings Predictions-20.5 55¢ -132 all-in57.5 52¢ -117 all-in96¢ -4900 all-in11¢ +669 all-in
Fanatics-21 -10557 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-20.5 -11056.5 -110-1700+890
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -11556.5 -110-1600+900
LowVig.ag-20.5 -11157 -108——
MyBookie.ag-20.5 -11057 -110-1299+730
Pinnacle-21 -10857 -110-1550+816
ReBet-21.5 -10956.5 -116-1493+650
theScore Bet-19.5 -11556.5 -110-2500+1100

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +21.0 · -110
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Boston College): Fanatics +21 at -115 (0.9%) · DraftKings +20.5 at -105 (0.7%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +20.5 at -107 (0.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars +20.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Boston College to win · +900 at DraftKings
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): Caesars or BetMGM +950 (1.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or FanDuel +900 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 57.0 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 53. That's 4.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 57 at -110 (3.0%) · BetMGM 56.5 at -108 (2.1%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Caesars 56.5 at -110 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-1.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 72°F, 41% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: SMU Mustangs -20.5, only $40 available; Under 56.5, only $84 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $47 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 19.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-20.0-878
FPI-16.0-581
Sagarin-19.0-812
Massey-15.5-563
Market (19 books)-21.0-1327
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.051.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBoston College Eagles +21.0-110-119+2.0%
MoneylineBoston College Eagles ML+900+852priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.0-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Miami Hurricanes at Clemson TigersMiami at Clemson
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Miami -17
should be Miami -16.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Miami by 17, the Nasty Number says Miami by 16.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Miami than the bookmore Clemson →
Market
Miami by 17
The Four
SP+
Miami by 18.5
FPI
Miami by 16
Sagarin
Miami by 8
Massey
Miami by 9.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 16.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami by 16.5opened Miami by 17now Miami by 17SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
42.76.4 pts under the market
Massey
49.90.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.32.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.3opened 49now 49SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -103 49¢49.5 -103 49¢——
Pinnacle+17 -10649 -108+576-933
All 20 books
Clemson spreadTotal (over)Clemson MLMiami ML
Kalshi+16.5 -103 49¢49.5 -103 49¢——
Bally Bet+17 -11349.5 -108+600-1000
BetAnything+16.5 -10549 -110——
BetMGM+17 -11049.5 -105+625-900
BetOnline.ag+16.5 -10549 -105——
betPARX+17 -11349.5 -108+600-1000
BetRivers+17 -11449 -114+600-1000
BetUS+16.5 -11049 -105——
Bovada+17 -11049 -110+600-950
Caesars+16.5 -10449.5 -106+625-1000
Courtside+17.5 -11649.5 -116+625-852
DraftKings+17.5 -11849.5 -118+600-900
Fanatics+17 -11049 -110+600-900
FanDuel+16.5 -10249.5 -110+640-1050
Hard Rock Bet+16.5 -10549.5 -110+600-1000
LowVig.ag+16.5 -10149 -103——
MyBookie.ag+17 -11049.5 -110+590-952
Pinnacle+17 -10649 -108+576-933
ReBet+17.5 -11949.5 -111+540-1099
theScore Bet+16.5 +10048.5 -115+600-1000

Marked: best for the Clemson side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson +17.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Clemson): FanDuel +16.5 at -102 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +17.5 at -118 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +17 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi +16.5 at 49¢ (-1.4%) · Caesars +16.5 at -104 (-1.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Clemson to win · +600 at DraftKings
We make it 14 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel +640 (0.5%) · BetMGM or Caesars +625 (0.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +600 (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 49.5 at -102 (2.5%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Caesars 49.5 at -114 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-0.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 75°F, 35% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +17.5, now +17.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Clemson). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Miami Hurricanes -16.5, only $17 available; Under 49.5, only $13 available; Clemson Tigers ML, only $37 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 16.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++18.5+797
FPI+16.0+581
Sagarin+8.0+288
Massey+9.5+315
Market (19 books)+17.0+819
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.046.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers +17.0-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML+600+614priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Clemson Tigers since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 1.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State CyclonesWest Virginia at Iowa State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Iowa State -3.5
should be Iowa State -3.5 · no bet
▼Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Iowa State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Iowa State by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more West Virginia than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Iowa State by 3.5
The Four
SP+
Iowa State by 4
FPI
Iowa State by 3.5
Sagarin
Iowa State by 4
Massey
Iowa State by 12
Nasty Number
Iowa State by 3.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Iowa State by 3.5opened Iowa State by 3now Iowa State by 3.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Iowa State by 3 to Iowa State by 3.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53
The Four
SP+ pace
52.20.7 pts under the market
Massey
53.60.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.9opened 53now 53SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State -3.5 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa State): DraftKings or Caesars -3.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · FanDuel -3.5 at -104 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -3.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa State to win · -167 at FanDuel
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 63. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 57. Where, best first (Iowa State to win): Caesars -162 (0.1%) · BetMGM or FanDuel -165 (-0.4%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -170 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 64¢ on the app (-194 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 53.0 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 53.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · Fanatics 53 at -110 (-2.3%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (-2.4%) · Caesars 53.5 at -117 (-2.6%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (-3.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 58°F.

Moved down since the last run: was A Little Nasty · Iowa State, now Not Nasty. The line went from -2.5 to -3.5.

Across the books: opened +0.5, now -3.5 (the market moved 3.9 toward Iowa State). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onIowa State by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-4.0-173
FPI-3.5-164
Sagarin-4.0-173
Massey-12.0-407
Market (19 books)-3.5-155
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.052.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa State Cyclones -3.5-102-101-0.3%
MoneylineIowa State Cyclones ML-167-163-0.6%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas JayhawksMiddle Tennessee at Kansas
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Kansas -18.5
should be Kansas -19 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kansas by 18.5.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Kansas →
Market
Kansas by 18.5
The Four
SP+
Kansas by 19
FPI
Kansas by 15.5
Sagarin
Kansas by 24.5
Massey
Kansas by 21.5
Nasty Number
Kansas by 190.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas by 19opened Kansas by 18.5now Kansas by 18.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
510.5 pts over the market
Massey
52.21.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.61 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi——-1087 91¢—
Pinnacle-18.5 -10950.5 -107-1248+705
All 19 books
Kansas spreadTotal (over)Kansas MLMiddle Tennessee ML
Kalshi——-1087 91¢—
Bally Bet-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetAnything-20 -11051 -110——
BetMGM-19 -10850.5 -112-1200+825
BetOnline.ag-18.5 -10550.5 -110——
betPARX-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetRivers-18 -11050.5 -118-1667+800
BetUS-20 -11050.5 -110——
Bovada-18.5 -11050.5 -110-1300+725
Courtside—53.5 -163-1032+733
DraftKings-18.5 -11550.5 -112-1100+700
DraftKings Predictions-18.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in93¢ -1901 all-in14¢ +525 all-in
Fanatics-18.5 -11050.5 -110-1200+750
FanDuel-19.5 -11451.5 -102-1600+860
LowVig.ag-18.5 -10150.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-20 -11050.5 -110-1299+710
Pinnacle-18.5 -10950.5 -107-1248+705
ReBet-19.5 -11950.5 -116-1408+630
theScore Bet-19.5 -10551.5 +100-2000+1000

Marked: best for the Kansas side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Kansas -18.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Kansas): Fanatics -18.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · BetMGM -19 at -108 (-2.1%) · DraftKings -18.5 at -115 (-2.8%) · FanDuel -19.5 at -114 (-4.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -18.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Kansas to win · -1087 (91¢) at Kalshi
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Kansas to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -1087 (-2.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -1200 (-3.2%) · FanDuel -1600 (-5.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 93¢ on the app (-1901 all-in) (-5.9%).
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -102 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F, 25% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onKansas by 1940% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-836
FPI-15.5-567
Sagarin-24.5-1727
Massey-21.5-1146
Market (17 books)-18.5-1106
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas Jayhawks -18.5-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineKansas Jayhawks ML-1087-817priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Michigan Wolverines at Minnesota Golden GophersMichigan at Minnesota
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Michigan -6
should be Michigan -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Michigan than the bookmore Minnesota →
Market
Michigan by 6
The Four
SP+
Michigan by 5.5
FPI
Michigan by 9.5
Sagarin
Michigan by 2.5
Massey
Michigan by 7.5
Nasty Number
Michigan by 60.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 6opened Michigan by 6now Michigan by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
SP+ pace
38.94.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.32.1 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.11.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.1opened 43now 43SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+6.5 -121 53¢43.5+181 34¢-229 68¢
Pinnacle+6 -11443 -109+181-220
All 21 books
Minnesota spreadTotal (over)Minnesota MLMichigan ML
Kalshi+6.5 -121 53¢43.5+181 34¢-229 68¢
Bally Bet+5 -11043.5 -112+170-210
BetAnything+5.5 -10544 -110——
BetMGM+6 -11043.5 -108+185-225
BetOnline.ag+5.5 -10543 -110——
betPARX+5 -11043.5 -112+170-210
BetRivers+5 -11243.5 -113+170-215
BetUS+5.5 -10543 -110——
Bovada+5.5 -10543 -110+180-220
Caesars+5.5 -11043.5 -112+184-225
Courtside—55.5 -553+189-220
DraftKings+6 -11243.5 -108+185-225
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 54¢ -127 all-in42.5 56¢ -138 all-in36¢ +163 all-in71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11043 -110+185-225
FanDuel+5.5 -10643.5 -110+188-230
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -10543.5 -110+170-210
LowVig.ag+5.5 -10143 -108——
MyBookie.ag+6 -11043.5 -110+198-250
Pinnacle+6 -11443 -109+181-220
ReBet+5.5 -10943.5 -114+189-260
theScore Bet+5.5 -10543.5 -110+190-225

Marked: best for the Minnesota side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -5.5 · -110 at Caesars
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): Caesars -5.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -6 at -108 (-1.7%) · FanDuel -5.5 at -114 (-1.9%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.5%).
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Michigan to win): DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -225 (-2.1%) · Kalshi or FanDuel -229 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -108 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 43.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 43 at -110 (-1.9%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 52¢ (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 58°F.

Across the books: opened +7.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 1.8 toward Minnesota). It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Michigan Wolverines -6.5, only $64 available; Over 43.5, only $49 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 640% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++5.5+195
FPI+9.5+310
Sagarin+2.5+119
Massey+7.5+275
Market (19 books)+6.0+204
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -5.5-110-106-1.0%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-225-204-2.1%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Minnesota Golden Gophers since 09-25 11:56.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at North Carolina Tar HeelsNotre Dame at North Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Notre Dame -21.5
should be Notre Dame -21.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 21.5.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore North Carolina →
Market
Notre Dame by 21.5
The Four
SP+
Notre Dame by 23
FPI
Notre Dame by 20.5
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 17
Massey
Notre Dame by 22
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 21.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 21.5opened Notre Dame by 21.5now Notre Dame by 21.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
45.12.4 pts under the market
Massey
47.10.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.11.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.1opened 47.5now 47.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—48.5 +101 48¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Pinnacle+21.5 -10747.5 -109+879-1737
All 21 books
North Carolina spreadTotal (over)North Carolina MLNotre Dame ML
Kalshi—48.5 +101 48¢+1242 7¢-1684 94¢
Bally Bet+21 -10948 -109+1150—
BetAnything+21 -11048 -110——
BetMGM+21.5 -11547.5 -108+1200-2000
BetOnline.ag+21.5 -11047.5 -105——
betPARX+21 -10948 -109+1150—
BetRivers+21 -11048 -110+1100—
BetUS+21 -11048 -110——
Bovada+21.5 -11047.5 -110+850-1800
Caesars+21.5 -11047.5 -112——
Courtside—52.5 -302+1405-2433
DraftKings+21.5 -11547.5 -112+1300-2800
DraftKings Predictions+21.5 56¢ -138 all-in48.5 50¢ -108 all-in9¢ +809 all-in—
Fanatics+21.5 -11047.5 -110+1200-2200
FanDuel+21.5 -11047.5 -106+1200-3000
Hard Rock Bet+20.5 +10047.5 -115+1200-3000
LowVig.ag+21.5 -10647.5 -103——
MyBookie.ag+21.5 -11047.5 -110+910-2000
Pinnacle+21.5 -10747.5 -109+879-1737
ReBet+21.5 -11147.5 -116+790-2273
theScore Bet+21.5 -11047.5 -105+1100-2500

Marked: best for the North Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

North Carolina +21.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (North Carolina): FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars +21.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +21.5 at -115 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +21.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-7.1%).
Blowout line
North Carolina to win · +1150
We make it 8 in 100 to win, the price says 8, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (North Carolina to win): DraftKings +1300 (1.1%) · Kalshi 7¢ (0.8%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM +1200 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 9¢ on the app (+809 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 47.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -114 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 58¢ on the app (-150 all-in) (-6.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 74°F, 26% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +21.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Under 48.5, only $179 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 21.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1319
FPI+20.5+921
Sagarin+17.0+625
Massey+22.0+1202
Market (19 books)+21.5+1669
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.546.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorth Carolina Tar Heels +21.5-110-104-1.5%
MoneylineNorth Carolina Tar Heels ML+1150+1119priced at 8 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Notre Dame Fighting Irish since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 2.0.

The line is +21.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Stanford Cardinal at Wake Forest Demon DeaconsStanford at Wake Forest
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:00am
Wake Forest -13
should be Wake Forest -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Wake Forest by 13, the Nasty Number says Wake Forest by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Stanford than the bookmore Wake Forest →
Market
Wake Forest by 13
The Four
SP+
Wake Forest by 14.5
FPI
Wake Forest by 14
Sagarin
Wake Forest by 13
Massey
Wake Forest by 10.5
Nasty Number
Wake Forest by 13.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wake Forest by 13.5opened Wake Forest by 13now Wake Forest by 13SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5
The Four
SP+ pace
540.5 pts over the market
Massey
55.62 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.81.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.8opened 54.5now 53.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 54.5 to 53.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-11.553.5——
Pinnacle-13 -10553.5 -112-536+382
All 21 books
Wake Forest spreadTotal (over)Wake Forest MLStanford ML
Kalshi-11.553.5——
Bally Bet-12.5 -11353.5 -110-590+410
BetAnything-13 -11054 -110——
BetMGM-13 -11053.5 -115-525+400
BetOnline.ag-13 -11053.5 -110——
betPARX-12.5 -11353.5 -110-590+410
BetRivers-12.5 -11453.5 -112-590+410
BetUS-13 -11053.5 -110——
Bovada-13 -10553.5 -115-550+390
Caesars-13 -10853.5 -113-530+400
Courtside—67.5 -752-501+402
DraftKings-12.5 -11253.5 -115-520+390
DraftKings Predictions-12.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in86¢ -733 all-in21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics-13 -11054.5 +100-525+390
FanDuel-12.5 -11553.5 -110-550+400
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11053.5 -110-600+400
LowVig.ag-13 -10653.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-13 -11054 -110-549+390
Pinnacle-13 -10553.5 -112-536+382
ReBet-13.5 -11153.5 -116-575+360
theScore Bet-13.5 -11053.5 -110-650+425

Marked: best for the Wake Forest side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Wake Forest -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Wake Forest): Caesars -13 at -108 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -12.5 at -112 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM -13 at -110 (-1.9%) · FanDuel -12.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -12.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Wake Forest to win · -550 at FanDuel
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wake Forest to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -520 (-2.4%) · Caesars -530 (-2.7%) · FanDuel -550 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-6.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 53.5 · -110
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 54.5 at +100 (-1.1%) · Caesars 53.5 at -113 (-1.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -115 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F, 25% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -13.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest).

Kalshi thin: Wake Forest Demon Deacons -11.5, only $21 available; Over 53.5, only $76 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onWake Forest by 13.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-14.5-509
FPI-14.0-476
Sagarin-13.0-436
Massey-10.5-369
Market (19 books)-13.0-486
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.554.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWake Forest Demon Deacons -13.0-110-102-1.9%
MoneylineWake Forest Demon Deacons ML-550-438priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 53.5-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Wake Forest Demon Deacons since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 1.1.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Michigan State Spartans at Wisconsin BadgersMichigan State at Wisconsin
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:30am
Michigan State +10
should be Michigan State +9 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Wisconsin by 10, the Nasty Number says Wisconsin by 9. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Michigan State than the bookmore Wisconsin →
Market
Wisconsin by 10
The Four
SP+
Wisconsin by 9
FPI
Wisconsin by 6
Sagarin
Wisconsin by 11
Massey
Wisconsin by 6
Nasty Number
Wisconsin by 90.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Wisconsin by 9opened Wisconsin by 10now Wisconsin by 10SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5
The Four
SP+ pace
39.94.5 pts under the market
Massey
431.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
41.53 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.5opened 44.5now 44.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Michigan State +10.0 · -110
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan State): BetMGM +9.5 at +100 (0.2%) · FanDuel +10.5 at -120 (-0.6%) · DraftKings or Caesars +10 at -112 (-0.7%) · Fanatics +10 at -115 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%).
Not Nasty
Michigan State to win · +310 at DraftKings
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): Caesars +320 (0.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +310 (0.0%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +300 (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 26¢ on the app (+257 all-in) (-3.6%).
Off the band
the Under 44.5 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -112 (-0.6%) · Caesars 44 at -109 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -118 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 59°F.

Full detail
We settle onWisconsin by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-9.0-305
FPI-6.0-202
Sagarin-11.0-376
Massey-6.0-204
Market (19 books)-10.0-361
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.541.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +10.0-110-109-0.2%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+310+310priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Georgia BulldogsVanderbilt at Georgia
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 11:45am
Georgia -24.5
should be Georgia -24.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Georgia by 24.5.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 24.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Georgia by 25
FPI
Georgia by 25
Sagarin
Georgia by 19
Massey
Georgia by 19.5
Nasty Number
Georgia by 24.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 24.5opened Georgia by 24.5now Georgia by 24.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.61.6 pts over the market
Massey
56.55.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.53.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.5opened 51now 51SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24.5 -10551 -117——
Kalshi—51.5-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
BetOnline.ag-24.5 -10551 -117——
All 21 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-24.5 -10551 -117——
Kalshi—51.5-2580 96¢+1775 5¢
Bally Bet-24.5 -11052.5 -112—+1600
BetAnything-24.5 -11052.5 -110——
BetMGM-24.5 -10552.5 -102-3000+1500
BetOnline.ag-24.5 -10551 -117——
betPARX-24.5 -11052.5 -112—+1600
BetRivers-24.5 -11252.5 -113—+1500
BetUS-24.5 -10552.5 -110——
Bovada-24 -10552 -110-2800+1100
Caesars-24.5 -10751.5 -117—+1400
Courtside—43.5 +258-2733+1522
DraftKings-24.5 -10851.5 -118-3200+1400
DraftKings Predictions-24.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 55¢ -132 all-in—8¢ +900 all-in
Fanatics-24.5 -10552 -110-2800+1400
FanDuel-24.5 -11052.5 -110—+1400
Hard Rock Bet-24.5 -11052.5 -110—+1600
LowVig.ag-24.5 -10151 -116——
MyBookie.ag-24.5 -110——+1161
ReBet-24.5 -11651.5 -116-3030+870
theScore Bet-24.5 -11052.5 -110—+1800

Marked: best for the Georgia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia -24.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia): Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM -24.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · Caesars -24.5 at -107 (-1.5%) · DraftKings -24.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -24.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Georgia to win · -3432 at DraftKings
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 97, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia to win): Kalshi 96¢ (-1.8%) · Fanatics -2800 (-2.1%) · BetMGM or DraftKings -3000 (-2.3%) · Caesars -3500 (-2.8%) · FanDuel -4000 (-3.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 51.0 · -117 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 51 at -117 (0.2%) · BetMGM 52.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-0.8%) · Caesars 51.5 at -117 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 76°F, 36% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -24.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Georgia).

Kalshi thin: Over 51.5, only $65 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 52.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 24.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-25.0-1772
FPI-25.0-1786
Sagarin-19.0-812
Massey-19.5-844
Market (18 books)-24.5-3184
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.054.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Bulldogs -24.5-105-101-1.1%
MoneylineGeorgia Bulldogs ML-3432-1699priced at 97 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.0-117-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-25 11:56; total has moved down 5.4.

TOM: total 51.0 here against 52.1 consensus.

The line is -24.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Western Michigan Broncos at Buffalo BullsWestern Michigan at Buffalo
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 12:00pm
Western Michigan -13.5
should be Western Michigan -13.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Western Michigan by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Western Michigan by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Western Michigan than the bookmore Buffalo →
Market
Western Michigan by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Western Michigan by 8
FPI
Western Michigan by 13.5
Sagarin
Western Michigan by 13.5
Massey
Western Michigan by 11
Nasty Number
Western Michigan by 13.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Western Michigan by 13.5opened Western Michigan by 14now Western Michigan by 13.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Western Michigan by 14 to Western Michigan by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
38.88.4 pts under the market
Massey
49.52.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
44.23.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.2opened 48now 47SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi——+456 17¢-609 85¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -10947 -112+417-603
All 21 books
Buffalo spreadTotal (over)Buffalo MLWestern Michigan ML
Kalshi——+456 17¢-609 85¢
Bally Bet+13.5 -10848.5 +100+500-770
BetAnything+14 -11047.5 -110——
BetMGM+13.5 -10847.5 -105+450-600
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -10947 -110——
betPARX+14 -11748.5 +100+510-770
BetRivers+13.5 -10848.5 +100+500-770
BetUS+13.5 -11047 -110——
Bovada+13.5 -11047 -115+425-600
Caesars+13.5 -11047 -112+450-625
Courtside—67.5 -1243+455-576
DraftKings+13.5 -10547.5 -102+440-600
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in20¢ +355 all-in87¢ -809 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -11047 -110+440-600
FanDuel+13.5 -11247.5 -108+460-650
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -11048.5 +100+500-750
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10547 -108——
MyBookie.ag+14 -11047 -110+460-676
Pinnacle+13.5 -10947 -112+417-603
ReBet+13.5 -10547.5 -109+420-725
theScore Bet+13.5 -11547.5 -115+450-700

Marked: best for the Buffalo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buffalo +13.5 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Buffalo): DraftKings +13.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars +13.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -112 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.7%).
Not Nasty
Buffalo to win · +450 (17¢) at Kalshi
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Buffalo to win): FanDuel or Kalshi +460 (0.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +450 (0.4%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +440 (0.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 50. The two sources disagree by 11 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or BetMGM 47.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · Caesars 47 at -108 (-1.1%) · Fanatics 47 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 47.5 at -118 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.6 toward Buffalo). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onWestern Michigan by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++8.0+284
FPI+13.5+452
Sagarin+13.5+450
Massey+11.0+387
Market (19 books)+13.5+558
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.544.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBuffalo Bulls +13.5-105-101-1.0%
MoneylineBuffalo Bulls ML+450+437priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 47.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Buffalo Bulls since 09-27 22:42.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Toledo Rockets at Ball State CardinalsToledo at Ball State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 1:00pm
Toledo -19
should be Toledo -19.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Toledo by 19.

The spread

← more Toledo than the bookmore Ball State →
Market
Toledo by 19TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
Toledo by 23
FPI
Toledo by 22
Sagarin
Toledo by 16.5
Massey
Toledo by 19
Nasty Number
Toledo by 19.50.7 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.52 pts under the market
Massey
54.53 pts over the market
Nasty Number
520.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.
Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19 -10551.5 -110——
Pinnacle+18.5 -10551.5 -107+711-1263
All 21 books
Ball State spreadTotal (over)Ball State MLToledo ML
TOM+19 -10551.5 -110——
Bally Bet+18.5 -11251.5 -112+850-1667
BetAnything+19.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM+19.5 -11251.5 -112+825-1200
BetOnline.ag+19 -10551.5 -110——
betPARX+18.5 -11251.5 -112+850-1667
BetRivers+18.5 -11251.5 -113+850-2000
BetUS+19.5 -11052 -110——
Bovada+19 -11051.5 -110+725-1300
Caesars+19.5 -10951.5 -110+800-1450
Courtside—62.5 -392+788-1121
DraftKings+19.5 -10851.5 -110+750-1200
DraftKings Predictions+19.5 54¢ -127 all-in51.5 53¢ -122 all-in13¢ +566 all-in94¢ -2401 all-in
Fanatics+19 -11051.5 -110+750-1200
FanDuel+19.5 -11052.5 -105+800-1400
Hard Rock Bet+18.5 -11051.5 -110+850-1600
LowVig.ag+19 -10151.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag+19.5 -11051.5 -110+690-1205
Pinnacle+18.5 -10551.5 -107+711-1263
ReBet+19.5 -10951.5 -116+620-1408
theScore Bet+19.5 -11051.5 -120+800-1600

Marked: best for the Ball State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Toledo -19.5 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Toledo): BetMGM -19.5 at -105 (-0.8%) · Fanatics -19 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel or Caesars -19.5 at -110 (-1.9%) · TOM -19 at -115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings -19.5 at -112 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Toledo to win · -1200 at DraftKings
We make it 90 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Toledo to win): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM -1200 (-2.6%) · FanDuel -1400 (-3.6%) · Caesars -1450 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 94¢ on the app (-2401 all-in) (-6.3%).
Off the band
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -112 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 63°F, 32% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +19.0 (the market moved 3.8 toward Toledo). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++23.0+1344
FPI+22.0+1212
Sagarin+16.5+610
Massey+19.0+827
Market (19 books)+19.0+1119
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadToledo Rockets -19.5-105-102-0.8%
MoneylineToledo Rockets ML-1200-874priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 51.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.8 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Akron Zips at Central Michigan ChippewasAkron at Central Michigan
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Central Michigan -6
should be Central Michigan -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Central Michigan by 6, the Nasty Number says Central Michigan by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Akron than the bookmore Central Michigan →
Market
Central Michigan by 6
The Four
SP+
Central Michigan by 6.5
FPI
Central Michigan by 6
Sagarin
Central Michigan by 8
Massey
Central Michigan by 6.5
Nasty Number
Central Michigan by 60.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Central Michigan by 6opened Central Michigan by 6now Central Michigan by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47
The Four
SP+ pace
41.25.7 pts under the market
Massey
46.50.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.93.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.9opened 47now 47SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢46.5 -116 52¢-239 69¢—
Pinnacle-6 -10847 -109-229+188
All 21 books
Central Michigan spreadTotal (over)Central Michigan MLAkron ML
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢46.5 -116 52¢-239 69¢—
Bally Bet-5.5 -11346.5 -109-215+170
BetAnything-6 -11047 -110——
BetMGM-6 -11046.5 -115-225+188
BetOnline.ag-6 -11247 -105——
betPARX-5.5 -11346.5 -109-215+170
BetRivers-5.5 -11346.5 -110-215+170
BetUS-6 -11047 -105——
Bovada-6 -11047 -110-230+190
Caesars-6 -11047.5 -103-225+183
Courtside-6 -10864.5 -861-220+189
DraftKings-6 -11047.5 -102-225+185
DraftKings Predictions-5.5 55¢ -132 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in71¢ -271 all-in36¢ +163 all-in
Fanatics-6 -11047 -110-235+190
FanDuel-5.5 -11446.5 -110-235+190
Hard Rock Bet-5.5 -11046.5 -110-210+170
LowVig.ag-6 -10847 -103——
MyBookie.ag-6 -11047 -110-250+197
Pinnacle-6 -10847 -109-229+188
ReBet-6.5 -11146.5 -119-260+188
theScore Bet-5.5 -11547.5 -105-230+195

Marked: best for the Central Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan -6.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Central Michigan): FanDuel -5.5 at -114 (-1.7%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -6 at -110 (-2.0%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 52¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Central Michigan to win · -225 at DraftKings
We make it 67 in 100 to win. The price says 69. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 67 cents fair, a play under 63. Where, best first (Central Michigan to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -225 (-2.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -235 (-2.9%) · Kalshi 69¢ (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 71¢ on the app (-271 all-in) (-5.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 47 at -110 (-0.0%) · BetMGM 46.5 at -105 (-0.2%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -118 (-0.6%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (-1.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $124 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onCentral Michigan by 630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-6.5-219
FPI-6.0-201
Sagarin-8.0-290
Massey-6.5-225
Market (19 books)-6.0-209
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.043.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas -6.0-110-101-2.0%
MoneylineCentral Michigan Chippewas ML-225-205-2.0%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Memphis Tigers at Charlotte 49ersMemphis at Charlotte
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Over 54
should be 55.6 · getting 1.4 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Memphis by 20.

The spread

← more Memphis than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Memphis by 20
The Four
SP+
Memphis by 27.5
FPI
Memphis by 16.5
Sagarin
Memphis by 16
Massey
Memphis by 18.5
Nasty Number
Memphis by 19.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Memphis by 19.5opened Memphis by 20now Memphis by 20SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
60.46.3 pts over the market
Massey
57.43.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.94.8 pts over the market
Over 54 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.8 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.9opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi——+841 10¢-1236 92¢
Pinnacle+20 -10554 -109+750-1366
All 19 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLMemphis ML
Kalshi——+841 10¢-1236 92¢
Bally Bet+20.5 -11254.5 -106+950-2500
BetAnything+20.5 -11054.5 -110——
BetMGM+20 -11054.5 -108+850-1200
BetOnline.ag+20 -11554 -110——
betPARX+20.5 -11254.5 -106+950-2500
BetRivers+20.5 -11254.5 -106+950-2500
BetUS+20 -11554 -110——
Bovada+20 -10554 -110+750-1400
Courtside—62.5 -308+788-1121
DraftKings+20.5 -11254.5 -105+750-1200
DraftKings Predictions+19.5 53¢ -122 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in13¢ +566 all-in94¢ -2401 all-in
Fanatics+20 -11054 -110+800-1300
FanDuel+20.5 -11055.5 -102+920-1800
LowVig.ag+20 -11154 -108——
MyBookie.ag+20.5 -11054.5 -110+720-1299
Pinnacle+20 -10554 -109+750-1366
ReBet+20.5 -11154.5 -111+650-1493
theScore Bet+20.5 -11054.5 -115+900-1800

Marked: best for the Charlotte side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +20.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Charlotte): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · DraftKings +20.5 at -112 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +20 at -110 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +19.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Charlotte to win · +920 at FanDuel
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): FanDuel +920 (0.8%) · BetMGM or Kalshi +850 (0.1%) · Fanatics +800 (-0.5%) · DraftKings +750 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 13¢ on the app (+566 all-in) (-4.4%).
Off the band
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 57. That's 4.8 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 54 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -105 (1.6%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (0.9%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -102 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 80°F, 37% chance of rain.

Full detail
We settle onMemphis by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++27.5+2279
FPI+16.5+592
Sagarin+16.0+572
Massey+18.5+781
Market (17 books)+20.0+1216
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.058.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +20.0-110-105-1.1%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+920+843priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.0-110-118shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is +20.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Virginia Cavaliers at Florida State SeminolesVirginia at Florida State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Virginia -3
should be Virginia -3 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia by 3, the Nasty Number says Virginia by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Virginia than the bookmore Florida State →
Market
Virginia by 3TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
Virginia by 6.5
FPI
Virginia by 3
Sagarin
Virginia by 0.5
Massey
Florida State by 1
Nasty Number
Virginia by 30 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 3opened Virginia by 2.5now Virginia by 3SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Virginia by 2.5 to Virginia by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.94.4 pts over the market
Massey
51.3on the market
Weather
-1.056% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
52.61.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+3 -11551.5 -110——
Pinnacle+3 -11051.5 -112+126-149
All 21 books
Florida State spreadTotal (over)Florida State MLVirginia ML
TOM+3 -11551.5 -110——
Bally Bet+3 -11251.5 -108+123-152
BetAnything+3 -11051 -110——
BetMGM+3 -11551.5 -108+125-145
BetOnline.ag+3 -11551.5 -110——
betPARX+3 -11251.5 -108+123-152
BetRivers+3 -11351.5 -109+123-155
BetUS+3 -11051.5 -110——
Bovada+3 -11051.5 -115+130-150
Caesars+3 -11451.5 -106+120-141
Courtside—54.5 -164+133-152
DraftKings+3 -11251.5 -110+130-155
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in51.5 54¢ -127 all-in46¢ +108 all-in61¢ -170 all-in
Fanatics+3 -11551.5 -110+125-150
FanDuel+2.5 -10251.5 -110+118-142
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10051.5 -110+125-150
LowVig.ag+3 -11151.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag+3 -11051.5 -110+122-149
Pinnacle+3 -11051.5 -112+126-149
ReBet+2.5 -10551.5 -111+117-156
theScore Bet+2.5 +10051.5 -110+120-140

Marked: best for the Florida State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Florida State +3.0 · -115 at Fanatics
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Florida State): DraftKings +3 at -112 (-2.5%) · Caesars +3 at -114 (-3.0%) · Fanatics, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -115 (-3.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -102 (-3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-6.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Florida State to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. Where, best first (Florida State to win): DraftKings +130 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +125 (-2.4%) · Caesars +120 (-3.4%) · FanDuel +118 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-6.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 51.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 51. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 51.5 at -106 (-0.9%) · BetMGM 51.5 at -108 (-1.3%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM 51.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 86°F, 56% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +3.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Virginia).

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+213
FPI+3.0+140
Sagarin+0.5-100
Massey-1.0-107
Market (19 books)+3.0+137
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFlorida State Seminoles +3.0-115-101-3.2%
MoneylineFlorida State Seminoles ML+130+138-1.4%
TotalOver 51.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Virginia Cavaliers since 09-27 07:20.

TOM matches the consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Old Dominion Monarchs at Georgia State PanthersOld Dominion at Georgia State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Georgia State +1
should be Georgia State -0.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Old Dominion by 1, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 0.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Old Dominion than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Old Dominion by 1
The Four
SP+
Old Dominion by 1
FPI
Georgia State by 5
Sagarin
Georgia State by 6.5
Massey
Old Dominion by 2.5
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 0.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia State by 0.5opened Old Dominion by 1now Old Dominion by 1SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
52.21.6 pts over the market
Massey
565.4 pts over the market
Weather
-1.052% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
53.12.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.1opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia State +1.0 · -110 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia State): DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (-1.1%) · BetMGM +1 at -110 (-1.2%) · Caesars +1 at -113 (-1.8%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -120 (-2.2%) · Fanatics +1 at -115 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Georgia State to win · -110 at FanDuel
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 52. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Georgia State to win): Caesars -106 (-1.5%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -108 (-1.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or Caesars 50.5 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (0.2%) · FanDuel 51.5 at -102 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 81°F, 52% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +1.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward Georgia State).

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 0.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++1.0+107
FPI-5.0-183
Sagarin-6.5-225
Massey+2.5+127
Market (19 books)+1.0+101
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.553.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia State Panthers +1.0-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineGeorgia State Panthers ML-110+100-2.4%
TotalOver 50.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Georgia State Panthers since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 0.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Ohio State Buckeyes at Iowa HawkeyesOhio State at Iowa
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Ohio State -13.5
should be Ohio State -13 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ohio State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Ohio State by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Ohio State than the bookmore Iowa →
Market
Ohio State by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Ohio State by 12
FPI
Ohio State by 13
Sagarin
Ohio State by 6
Massey
Ohio State by 9
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 130.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 13opened Ohio State by 13.5now Ohio State by 13.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
44.61.1 pts under the market
Massey
44.11.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.41.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.4opened 46now 46SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa +13.5 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Iowa): Fanatics or Caesars +13.5 at -105 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -106 (-0.8%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Iowa to win · +450 at BetMGM
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Iowa to win): FanDuel +470 (1.3%) · BetMGM or Caesars +450 (0.7%) · Fanatics +440 (0.4%) · DraftKings +425 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (-3.1%).
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 44. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-0.5%) · Fanatics 46 at -110 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 45.5 at -108 (-1.7%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +14.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 0.8 toward Iowa). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++12.0+402
FPI+13.0+426
Sagarin+6.0+200
Massey+9.0+310
Market (19 books)+13.5+538
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.044.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +13.5-105-103-0.5%
MoneylineIowa Hawkeyes ML+450+429priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Iowa Hawkeyes since 09-25 15:25; total has moved up 1.8.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wyoming Cowboys at North Dakota State BisonWyoming at North Dakota State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:30pm
Under 46
should be 44.4 · getting 1.5 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says North Dakota State by 19.

The spread

← more Wyoming than the bookmore North Dakota State →
Market
North Dakota State by 19
The Four
SP+
North Dakota State by 22.5
FPI
North Dakota State by 18
Sagarin
North Dakota State by 17.5
Massey
North Dakota State by 14
Nasty Number
North Dakota State by 18.50.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number North Dakota State by 18.5opened North Dakota State by 20now North Dakota State by 19SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from North Dakota State by 20 to North Dakota State by 19. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46
The Four
SP+ pace
396.9 pts under the market
Massey
42.83.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.95 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.9opened 46now 46SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wyoming +19.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Wyoming): DraftKings +18.5 at -105 (-1.4%) · Caesars +18.5 at -106 (-1.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +18.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · FanDuel +18.5 at -112 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +18.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Wyoming to win · +800 at DraftKings
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 11, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Wyoming to win): BetMGM +825 (0.3%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +800 (0.0%) · FanDuel +760 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110
SP+ projects 39 and Massey projects 43. That's 5.0 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 46 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings or Caesars 45.5 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.9 toward Wyoming).

Full detail
We settle onNorth Dakota State by 18.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-22.5-1294
FPI-18.0-738
Sagarin-17.5-708
Massey-14.0-471
Market (19 books)-19.0-1104
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.040.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWyoming Cowboys +19.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineWyoming Cowboys ML+800+797priced at 11 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Wyoming Cowboys since 09-27 22:42.

The line is -19.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Marshall Thundering Herd at James Madison DukesMarshall at James Madison
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 2:45pm
Over 54.5
should be 55.6 · getting 1 pt · was 56.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says James Madison by 18.5.

The spread

← more Marshall than the bookmore James Madison →
Market
James Madison by 18.5
The Four
SP+
James Madison by 24.5
FPI
James Madison by 21
Sagarin
James Madison by 20.5
Massey
James Madison by 18
Nasty Number
James Madison by 190.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 19opened James Madison by 18.5now James Madison by 18.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
58.64.1 pts over the market
Massey
57.32.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
583.4 pts over the market
Over 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58opened 54.5now 54.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.5 -121 53¢54.5 -121 53¢——
Pinnacle-18.5 -10654.5 -111-1057+629
All 21 books
James Madison spreadTotal (over)James Madison MLMarshall ML
Kalshi-17.5 -121 53¢54.5 -121 53¢——
Bally Bet-18.5 -10954.5 -109-2000+850
BetAnything-18 -11055 -110——
BetMGM-18 -11054.5 -110-1000+700
BetOnline.ag-18 -11554.5 -110——
betPARX-18.5 -10954.5 -109-2000+850
BetRivers-18.5 -10954.5 -109-2000+850
BetUS-18 -11054.5 -110——
Bovada-18.5 -11054.5 -110-1100+650
Caesars-18 -11254.5 -115-1000+650
Courtside—70.5 -816-943+679
DraftKings-17.5 -11554.5 -115-1000+650
DraftKings Predictions-17.5 55¢ -132 all-in54.5 54¢ -127 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics-18.5 -11054.5 -110-1100+700
FanDuel-18.5 -10854.5 -112-1250+740
Hard Rock Bet-18.5 -11054.5 -110-2000+850
LowVig.ag-18 -11154.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-18 -11055 -110-1000+620
Pinnacle-18.5 -10654.5 -111-1057+629
ReBet-18.5 -11654.5 -119-1099+560
theScore Bet-18.5 -11054.5 -115-1600+800

Marked: best for the James Madison side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -17.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (James Madison): DraftKings -17.5 at -115 (0.3%) · BetMGM -18 at -110 (0.2%) · Caesars -18 at -112 (-0.3%) · FanDuel -18.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · Kalshi -17.5 at 53¢ (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
James Madison to win · -1100 at Fanatics
We make it 89 in 100 to win, the price says 92, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (James Madison to win): DraftKings, Caesars or BetMGM -1000 (-1.6%) · Fanatics -1100 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -1250 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 92¢ on the app (-1567 all-in) (-4.7%).
Off the band
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 57. That's 3.4 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or BetMGM 54.5 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -112 (-0.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars 54.5 at -115 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 53¢ (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F, 29% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -15.0, now -18.5 (the market moved 3.4 toward James Madison). It crossed 17 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Marshall Thundering Herd +17.5, only $48 available; James Madison Dukes ML, only $149 available; Marshall Thundering Herd ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 1930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-24.5-1708
FPI-21.0-1084
Sagarin-20.5-936
Massey-18.0-738
Market (19 books)-18.5-975
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.558.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -17.5-115-116+0.3%
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-1100-837priced at 92 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 54.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.4 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.9.

The line is -18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Maryland Terrapins at Nebraska CornhuskersMaryland at Nebraska
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
Nebraska -14.5
should be Nebraska -14.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 14.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Maryland than the bookmore Nebraska →
Market
Nebraska by 14.5
The Four
SP+
Nebraska by 15
FPI
Nebraska by 20
Sagarin
Nebraska by 15
Massey
Nebraska by 13
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 14.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 14.5opened Nebraska by 14.5now Nebraska by 14.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5
The Four
SP+ pace
53.41 pts over the market
Massey
51.51 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.5opened 52.5now 52.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.552.5-660 86¢—
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
All 21 books
Nebraska spreadTotal (over)Nebraska MLMaryland ML
Kalshi-14.552.5-660 86¢—
Bally Bet-14.5 -10952.5 -109-625+430
BetAnything-14.5 -11052 -110——
BetMGM-14.5 -10852.5 -108-625+475
BetOnline.ag-14.5 -11052 -115——
betPARX-14.5 -10952.5 -109-625+430
BetRivers-14.5 -11052.5 -110-625+430
BetUS-14.5 -11052 -115——
Bovada-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+475
Caesars-14.5 -11052.5 -106-675+475
Courtside—68.5 -798-600+471
DraftKings-14.5 -10852.5 -105-625+455
DraftKings Predictions-14.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 57¢ -144 all-in88¢ -900 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-14.5 -11052.5 -110-700+500
FanDuel-14.5 -11052.5 -110-690+480
Hard Rock Bet-14.5 -11052.5 -110-650+425
LowVig.ag-14.5 -10652 -114——
MyBookie.ag-14.5 -11052.5 -110-725+490
Pinnacle-14.5 -10952.5 -110-699+467
ReBet-15.5 -11452.5 -111-800+450
theScore Bet-14.5 -11052.5 -110-800+500

Marked: best for the Nebraska side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nebraska -14.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Nebraska): DraftKings or BetMGM -14.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or Caesars -14.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -14.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Nebraska to win · -675 at Caesars
We make it 84 in 100 to win, the price says 87, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Nebraska to win): DraftKings or BetMGM -625 (-2.0%) · Kalshi 86¢ (-2.6%) · Caesars -675 (-2.9%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -690 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 88¢ on the app (-900 all-in) (-5.8%).
Off the band
the Under 52.5 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or BetMGM 52.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · Caesars 52.5 at -114 (-3.2%) · DraftKings or Kalshi 52.5 at -115 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 51.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 64°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Nebraska). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Nebraska Cornhuskers -14.5, only $129 available; Over 52.5, only $13 available; Maryland Terrapins ML, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 14.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-15.0-549
FPI-20.0-882
Sagarin-15.0-548
Massey-13.0-424
Market (19 books)-14.5-604
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNebraska Cornhuskers -14.5-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineNebraska Cornhuskers ML-675-534priced at 87 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 52.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Nebraska Cornhuskers since 09-27 07:20.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UTEP Miners at New Mexico LobosUTEP at New Mexico
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 3:00pm
New Mexico -22.5
should be New Mexico -24 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says New Mexico by 22.5.

The spread

← more UTEP than the bookmore New Mexico →
Market
New Mexico by 22.5
The Four
SP+
New Mexico by 34
FPI
New Mexico by 27.5
Sagarin
New Mexico by 25
Massey
New Mexico by 19.5
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 241.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 24opened New Mexico by 22.5now New Mexico by 22.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
48.10.5 pts under the market
Massey
55.16.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.63 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.6opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi——-2042 95¢+1242 7¢
Pinnacle-22.5 -11048.5 -106-1994+960
All 21 books
New Mexico spreadTotal (over)New Mexico MLUTEP ML
Kalshi——-2042 95¢+1242 7¢
Bally Bet-22.5 -11249.5 -112—+1300
BetAnything-22.5 -11049.5 -110——
BetMGM-22.5 -11048.5 -110-2500+1250
BetOnline.ag-22.5 -11048 -115——
betPARX-22.5 -11249.5 -112—+1300
BetRivers-22.5 -11249.5 -112—+1300
BetUS-22.5 -11048 -115——
Bovada-22.5 -11048.5 -105-2000+950
Caesars-22.5 -11048.5 -117—+1300
Courtside—67.5 -1635-1882+1177
DraftKings-22.5 -11248.5 -110-2100+1100
DraftKings Predictions-22.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in97¢ -9897 all-in10¢ +733 all-in
Fanatics-22.5 -11048.5 -110-2200+1200
FanDuel-22.5 -11048.5 -115—+1400
Hard Rock Bet-22.5 -11049.5 -110—+1300
LowVig.ag-22.5 -10648 -114——
MyBookie.ag-22.5 -11049 -110-2000+940
Pinnacle-22.5 -11048.5 -106-1994+960
ReBet-23.5 -11148.5 -119-2500+810
theScore Bet-22.5 -11048.5 -115—+1500

Marked: best for the New Mexico side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico -22.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (New Mexico): FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -22.5 at -110 (1.2%) · DraftKings -22.5 at -112 (0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -22.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
New Mexico to win · -2500 at BetMGM
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 96, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -2042 (-1.5%) · Fanatics -2200 (-1.8%) · BetMGM -2500 (-2.3%) · Caesars -3500 (-3.4%) · FanDuel -4000 (-3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (0.2%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · Caesars 48.5 at -117 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 72°F.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 2430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-34.0—
FPI-27.5-2271
Sagarin-25.0-1806
Massey-19.5-865
Market (19 books)-22.5-1911
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico Lobos -22.5-110-116+1.2%
MoneylineNew Mexico Lobos ML-2500-1528priced at 96 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 48.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State RamsOregon State at Colorado State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 5:00pm
Oregon State -4
should be Oregon State -4.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 4, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore Colorado State →
Market
Oregon State by 4
The Four
SP+
Oregon State by 6.5
FPI
Oregon State by 4.5
Sagarin
Oregon State by 1
Massey
Oregon State by 6
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 4.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 4.5opened Oregon State by 5now Oregon State by 4SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 5 to Oregon State by 4. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61
The Four
SP+ pace
58.12.8 pts under the market
Massey
59.51.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
58.82.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.8opened 61now 61SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Oregon State -4.0 · -110
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): BetMGM -4.5 at -105 (-1.5%) · Fanatics -4 at -115 (-2.4%) · FanDuel or Caesars -4.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · DraftKings -4.5 at -112 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-6.2%).
Not Nasty
Oregon State to win · -194 at FanDuel
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): Caesars or BetMGM -190 (-1.6%) · DraftKings -192 (-1.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -194 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 67¢ on the app (-223 all-in) (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 61.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 60. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 61.5 at -112 (-0.3%) · Caesars 60.5 at -104 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 61.5 at -115 (-1.0%) · Fanatics 61 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 60.5 at -106 (-1.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Colorado State).

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 4.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.5+209
FPI+4.5+176
Sagarin+1.0+105
Massey+6.0+200
Market (19 books)+4.0+176
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.058.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers -4.0-110-104-1.3%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML-194-177-2.1%
TotalUnder 61.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-27 07:20; total has moved up 3.4.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

BYU Cougars at TCU Horned FrogsBYU at TCU
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
BYU -6
should be BYU -6 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says BYU by 6, the Nasty Number says BYU by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more BYU than the bookmore TCU →
Market
BYU by 6
The Four
SP+
BYU by 6
FPI
BYU by 6.5
Sagarin
BYU by 1
Massey
BYU by 1.5
Nasty Number
BYU by 60.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number BYU by 6opened BYU by 6now BYU by 6SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49
The Four
SP+ pace
47.41.5 pts under the market
Massey
51.42.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.40.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.4opened 49now 49SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.550.5 +105 47¢—-250 70¢
Pinnacle+6 -10849 -108+188-229
All 20 books
TCU spreadTotal (over)TCU MLBYU ML
Kalshi+6.550.5 +105 47¢—-250 70¢
Bally Bet+6.5 -11249.5 -108+195-245
BetMGM+6.5 -10848.5 -115+190-235
BetOnline.ag+6.5 -11048.5 -115——
betPARX+6.5 -11249.5 -108+195-245
BetRivers+6.5 -11349.5 -109+190-245
BetUS+6 -11048.5 -115——
Bovada+6 -11049 -110+190-230
Caesars+6.5 -11449 -110+194-235
Courtside—61.5 -1963+194-225
DraftKings+6.5 -11249.5 -105+190-230
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 55¢ -132 all-in36¢ +163 all-in71¢ -271 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11049 -110+190-235
FanDuel+6.5 -11049.5 -108+195-240
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 -11049.5 -110+195-240
LowVig.ag+6.5 -10648.5 -114——
MyBookie.ag+6 -11049 -110+198-250
Pinnacle+6 -10849 -108+188-229
ReBet+6.5 -11649.5 -109+189-260
theScore Bet+6.5 -11049.5 -105+195-230

Marked: best for the TCU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

TCU +6.5 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (TCU): BetMGM +6.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings +6.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · Caesars +6.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · Fanatics +6 at -110 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
TCU to win · +192
We make it 33 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 33 cents fair, a play under 28. Where, best first (TCU to win): FanDuel or Caesars +195 (-1.1%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +190 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (-5.2%).
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM 48.5 at -115 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or Caesars 49 at -110 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 47¢ (-2.3%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (-2.3%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -108 (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 77°F, 39% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward BYU).

Kalshi thin: TCU Horned Frogs +6.5, only $149 available; Under 50.5, only $12 available; TCU Horned Frogs ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onBYU by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++6.0+201
FPI+6.5+212
Sagarin+1.0+103
Massey+1.5+113
Market (18 books)+6.0+214
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.049.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTCU Horned Frogs +6.5-108-104-1.0%
MoneylineTCU Horned Frogs ML+192+205-1.5%
TotalOver 49.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward BYU Cougars since 09-25 18:04; total has moved down 3.5.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersGeorgia Southern at Coastal Carolina
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:00pm
Georgia Southern -2.5
should be Georgia Southern -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Southern by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Southern by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Georgia Southern than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Georgia Southern by 2.5
The Four
SP+
Georgia Southern by 0.5
FPI
Georgia Southern by 2
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 0.5
Massey
Georgia Southern by 1.5
Nasty Number
Georgia Southern by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Southern by 2opened Georgia Southern by 2.5now Georgia Southern by 2.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
58.14.2 pts over the market
Massey
53.60.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.92 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.9opened 54now 54SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi———-136 56¢
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
All 20 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLGeorgia Southern ML
Kalshi———-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2 -11453.5 -109+102-125
BetAnything+1.5 -11054 -110——
BetMGM+2 -10554.5 -105+105-125
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11054 -110——
betPARX+2 -11453.5 -109+102-125
BetRivers+2 -11453.5 -109+102-125
BetUS+2.5 -11054 -110——
Bovada+2.5 -11054 -110+115-135
Courtside—59.5 -179+104-120
DraftKings+2.5 -11053.5 -115+102-122
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 54¢ -127 all-in54.5 52¢ -117 all-in50¢ -108 all-in56¢ -138 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -11054 -110+110-130
FanDuel+2.5 -11453.5 -118+105-126
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -10553.5 -110+100-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 -10654 -108——
MyBookie.ag+2 -11054 -110+108-132
Pinnacle+2.5 -10654 -109+114-134
ReBet+2.5 -11653.5 -116+104-137
theScore Bet+1.5 -10554.5 -105+105-125

Marked: best for the Coastal Carolina side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): BetMGM +2 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · +110 at Fanatics
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): Fanatics +110 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +105 (-2.3%) · DraftKings +102 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-5.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 53.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -105 (-1.2%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -118 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 76°F, 42% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $486 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Southern by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++0.5+101
FPI+2.0+118
Sagarin-0.5-101
Massey+1.5+110
Market (18 books)+2.5+120
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.055.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5-110-105-1.2%
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+110+115-1.2%
TotalOver 54.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Utah State Aggies at Boise State BroncosUtah State at Boise State
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Boise State -21
should be Boise State -20.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Boise State by 21.

The spread

← more Utah State than the bookmore Boise State →
Market
Boise State by 21
The Four
SP+
Boise State by 19
FPI
Boise State by 20.5
Sagarin
Boise State by 19.5
Massey
Boise State by 13.5
Nasty Number
Boise State by 20.50.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 20.5opened Boise State by 20now Boise State by 21SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Boise State by 20 to Boise State by 21. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5
The Four
SP+ pace
49.31.2 pts under the market
Massey
51.30.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.3on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.3opened 50.5now 50.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Utah State +21.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Utah State): Fanatics +21 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +20.5 at -105 (-1.0%) · Caesars +20.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.8%).
Blowout line
Utah State to win · +976
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah State to win): FanDuel or BetMGM +1060 (1.2%) · Caesars +1000 (0.7%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +900 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 11¢ on the app (+669 all-in) (-3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 50.5 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics 51 at -110 (-1.0%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -105 (-1.1%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -118 (-1.5%) · Caesars 50.5 at -108 (-1.8%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -20.0, now -21.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Boise State).

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 20.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-19.0-829
FPI-20.5-914
Sagarin-19.5-853
Massey-13.5-453
Market (19 books)-21.0-1421
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.550.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah State Aggies +21.0-110-111+0.3%
MoneylineUtah State Aggies ML+976+923priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.5-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-27 22:42.

The line is -21.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Texas Tech Red Raiders at Colorado BuffaloesTexas Tech at Colorado
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
Texas Tech -13.5
should be Texas Tech -14 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texas Tech by 13.5, the Nasty Number says Texas Tech by 14. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Texas Tech than the bookmore Colorado →
Market
Texas Tech by 13.5
The Four
SP+
Texas Tech by 21.5
FPI
Texas Tech by 15.5
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 11
Massey
Texas Tech by 13
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 140.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 14opened Texas Tech by 13.5now Texas Tech by 13.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50
The Four
SP+ pace
49.21 pts under the market
Massey
50.1on the market
Nasty Number
49.70.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.7opened 50now 50SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.550.5 -103 49¢—-609 85¢
Pinnacle+13.5 -10750 -109+406-581
All 21 books
Colorado spreadTotal (over)Colorado MLTexas Tech ML
Kalshi+13.550.5 -103 49¢—-609 85¢
Bally Bet+14 -11450.5 -115+440-625
BetAnything+13.5 -11050.5 -110——
BetMGM+13.5 -10850.5 -108+400-525
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -10950.5 -105——
betPARX+14 -11450.5 -115+440-625
BetRivers+14 -11550.5 -117+430-625
BetUS+13.5 -11050.5 -105——
Bovada+13.5 -11050 -110+410-585
Caesars+13.5 -10950.5 -107+425-590
Courtside—53.5 -122+439-553
DraftKings+13.5 -10850.5 -110+425-575
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in20¢ +355 all-in87¢ -809 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -11050 -110+425-575
FanDuel+13.5 -11050.5 -106+385-520
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 -10550.5 -115+450-650
LowVig.ag+13.5 -10550.5 -103——
MyBookie.ag+13.5 -11050.5 -110+430-625
Pinnacle+13.5 -10750 -109+406-581
ReBet+13.5 -10950.5 -114+400-676
theScore Bet+13.5 -11050.5 -105+380-550

Marked: best for the Colorado side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas Tech -13.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas Tech): FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -13.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -112 (-1.1%) · Kalshi -13.5 at 52¢ (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-4.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Texas Tech to win · -520 at FanDuel
We make it 83 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas Tech to win): FanDuel or BetMGM -520 (-1.2%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -575 (-2.5%) · Caesars -590 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 85¢ (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 87¢ on the app (-809 all-in) (-6.3%).
Off the band
the Under 50.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · BetMGM 50.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · Caesars 50.5 at -113 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-2.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 74°F.

Across the books: opened +16.0, now +13.5 (the market moved 2.5 toward Colorado). It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Colorado Buffaloes +13.5, only $133 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $84 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 1421% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++21.5+1116
FPI+15.5+556
Sagarin+11.0+373
Massey+13.0+430
Market (19 books)+13.5+519
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.049.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Tech Red Raiders -13.5-110-107-0.6%
MoneylineTexas Tech Red Raiders ML-520-477priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 50.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.5 toward Colorado Buffaloes since 09-27 07:20; total has moved down 1.6.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Washington Huskies at USC TrojansWashington at USC
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 6:30pm
USC -9
should be USC -9 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says USC by 9, the Nasty Number says USC by 9. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Washington than the bookmore USC →
Market
USC by 9
The Four
SP+
USC by 8
FPI
USC by 12.5
Sagarin
USC by 10
Massey
USC by 6
Nasty Number
USC by 90.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number USC by 9opened USC by 10now USC by 9SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from USC by 10 to USC by 9. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5
The Four
SP+ pace
59.63.1 pts over the market
Massey
56.20.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
57.91.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.9opened 56.5now 56.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi—56.5 -112 51¢—+280 25¢
Pinnacle-9 -10556.5 -108-362+279
All 21 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLWashington ML
Kalshi—56.5 -112 51¢—+280 25¢
Bally Bet-9.5 -11057 -108-375+290
BetAnything-10 -11057 -110——
BetMGM-9 -11056.5 -110-350+280
BetOnline.ag-9 -11056.5 -110——
betPARX-9.5 -11057 -108-375+290
BetRivers-9.5 -11257 -109-385+285
BetUS-9 -11056.5 -110——
Bovada-8.5 -11056.5 -110-360+280
Caesars-9.5 -11256.5 -112-360+285
Courtside—53.5 +130-364+303
DraftKings-9.5 -11056.5 -112-375+295
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 53¢ -122 all-in57.5 52¢ -117 all-in80¢ -456 all-in27¢ +245 all-in
Fanatics-9 -11056.5 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -11456.5 -114-365+285
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11056.5 -115-375+300
LowVig.ag-9 -10656.5 -108——
MyBookie.ag-10 -11056.5 -110-370+280
Pinnacle-9 -10556.5 -108-362+279
ReBet-9.5 -11956.5 -116-391+265
theScore Bet-9.5 -11556.5 -115-380+290

Marked: best for the USC side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Washington +9.5 · -106 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Washington): FanDuel +9.5 at -106 (-1.1%) · Caesars +9.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +9 at -108 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · Fanatics +9 at -110 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Washington to win · +285 at FanDuel
We make it 24 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 24 cents fair, a play under 20. Where, best first (Washington to win): DraftKings +295 (-0.8%) · Fanatics +290 (-1.2%) · FanDuel or Caesars +285 (-1.5%) · Kalshi or BetMGM +280 (-1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (-4.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 56.5 · -110
SP+ projects 60 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics or BetMGM 56.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi, DraftKings or Caesars 56.5 at -112 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 56.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 90°F.

Across the books: opened -10.0, now -9.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Washington). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: USC Trojans -9.5, only $61 available; Washington Huskies +9.5, only $12 available; USC Trojans ML, only $335 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onUSC by 930% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+-8.0-286
FPI-12.5-421
Sagarin-10.0-343
Massey-6.0-200
Market (19 books)-9.0-332
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.557.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington Huskies +9.5-106-101-1.1%
MoneylineWashington Huskies ML+285+309-1.5%
TotalOver 56.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-25 18:35; total has moved down 0.9.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Indiana Hoosiers at Rutgers Scarlet KnightsIndiana at Rutgers
CFB Sat 3 Oct, 7:00pm
Indiana -24
should be Indiana -24.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 24.

The spread

← more Indiana than the bookmore Rutgers →
Market
Indiana by 24
The Four
SP+
Indiana by 26.5
FPI
Indiana by 26
Sagarin
Indiana by 16.5
Massey
Indiana by 22
Nasty Number
Indiana by 24.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 24.5opened Indiana by 24now Indiana by 24SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
64.68.8 pts over the market
Massey
55.7on the market
Nasty Number
60.24.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.2opened 56now 56SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—55.5+1242 7¢-2042 95¢
Pinnacle+24 -10156 -108+1098-2473
All 21 books
Rutgers spreadTotal (over)Rutgers MLIndiana ML
Kalshi—55.5+1242 7¢-2042 95¢
Bally Bet+23.5 -11055 -114+1300—
BetAnything+24 -11056 -110——
BetMGM+24 -115—+1550-3000
BetOnline.ag+24 -10556 -110——
betPARX+23.5 -11055 -114+1300—
BetRivers+23.5 -11255 -115+1300—
BetUS+24 -10556 -110——
Bovada+24.5 -11556 -110+1000-2500
Caesars+24 -11256 -110——
Courtside—77.5 -3093+1177-1882
DraftKings+24.5 -11855.5 -115+1100-2100
DraftKings Predictions+24.5 56¢ -138 all-in57.5 50¢ -108 all-in10¢ +733 all-in97¢ -9897 all-in
Fanatics+24 -10556 -110+1200-2200
FanDuel+24.5 -10855.5 -114+1400—
Hard Rock Bet+23.5 -11055.5 -105+1300—
LowVig.ag+24 -10156 -108——
MyBookie.ag+24 -11055.5 -110+970-2273
Pinnacle+24 -10156 -108+1098-2473
ReBet+24.5 -11155.5 -116+830-2500
theScore Bet+23.5 -10556.5 -110+1200-3000

Marked: best for the Rutgers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Indiana -24.0 · -105 at BetMGM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Indiana): BetMGM -24 at -105 (0.8%) · Caesars -24 at -108 (0.1%) · DraftKings -24.5 at -102 (-0.4%) · Fanatics -24 at -115 (-1.5%) · FanDuel -24.5 at -112 (-2.7%).
Blowout line
Indiana to win · -2042 (95¢) at Kalshi
We make it 94 in 100 to win, the price says 95, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Indiana to win): Kalshi or DraftKings -2042 (-0.9%) · Fanatics -2200 (-1.2%) · BetMGM -3000 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -4000 (-3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 97¢ on the app (-9897 all-in) (-4.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 65 and Massey projects 56. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 55.5 at -114 (0.9%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -115 (0.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars 56 at -110 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 0 mph wind, 64°F.

Kalshi thin: Over 55.5, only $12 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 24.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP++26.5+2008
FPI+26.0+1954
Sagarin+16.5+605
Massey+22.0+1203
Market (19 books)+24.0+2157
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.060.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIndiana Hoosiers -24.0-105-108+0.8%
MoneylineIndiana Hoosiers ML-2042-1697priced at 95 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.0-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

The line is +24.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sun Oct 4

14 gamesWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay BuccaneersPackers at Buccaneers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Buccaneers +3.5
should be Buccaneers +2.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Packers by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Packers by 2.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Packers than the bookmore Buccaneers →
Market
Packers by 3.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey
Buccaneers by 14.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Packers by 2.50.9 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Buccaneers. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5TOM, Over -105
The Four
Massey
48.79.2 pts over the market
FPI
46.97.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.88.3 pts over the market
Over 39.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.3 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+3.5 -10539.5 -105+133-163
Kalshi+3.540.5 -103 49¢+140 40¢-175 62¢
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10539.5 -105+143-163
All 23 books
Buccaneers spreadTotal (over)Buccaneers MLPackers ML
TOM+3.5 -10539.5 -105+133-163
Kalshi+3.540.5 -103 49¢+140 40¢-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11839.5 -114+148-180
BetAnything+3.5 -11539.5 -110+150-170
BetMGM+3.5 -11039.5 -110+145-175
BetOnline.ag+3.5 -10539.5 -105+143-163
betPARX+3.5 -11839.5 -114+148-180
BetRivers+3.5 -11839.5 -114+148-180
BetUS+3.5 -11539.5 -110+142-165
Caesars+3.5 -11339.5 -115+141-170
Courtside+3.5 -10839.5 -106+157-181
DraftKings+3.5 -11039.5 -108+154-185
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in39.5 53¢ -122 all-in41¢ +133 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
FanDuel+3.5 -11539.5 -114+140-166
Fliff+3.5 -11539.5 -120+140-180
Hard Rock Bet+3.5 -11540 -110+140-170
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3.5 -11540 -110+140-170
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3.5 -11540 -110+140-170
LowVig.ag+3.5 +10039.5 -102+143-163
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11039.5 -110+142-183
Polymarket———-163
ReBet+3.5 -12540.5 -110+145-179
theScore Bet+3.5 -11539.5 -115+140-165

Marked: best for Buccaneers, higher payout on each moneyline.

Buccaneers +3.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Buccaneers): TOM +3.5 at -105 (6.7%) · DraftKings or BetMGM +3.5 at -110 (5.5%) · Caesars +3.5 at -113 (4.9%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -115 (4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (2.0%).
A Little Nasty
Buccaneers to win · +154 at DraftKings
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 39. That's value. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Buccaneers loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Buccaneers to win): DraftKings +154 (4.4%) · BetMGM +145 (3.0%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Kalshi +141 (2.3%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions +133 (41¢ on the app) (0.9%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 39.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. That's 8.3 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 39.5 at -105 (4.4%) · DraftKings 39.5 at -108 (3.7%) · BetMGM 39.5 at -110 (3.2%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -114 (2.3%) · Caesars 39.5 at -115 (2.1%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Buccaneers +3.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 86°F.

Kalshi thin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $18 available; Under 40.5, only $40 available; Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, only $170 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB questionable: Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), Questionable. Check before kickoff.

Also out: Jayden Reed (WR, Packers), Zach Bako-Bewele (OT, Packers), Billy Schrauth (G, Buccaneers) and 3 more.

TOM: moneyline +139 here against +160 consensus.

Green Bay Packers has had 9 days off against 6, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onPackers by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Green Bay Packers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers's last game
Massey-1.0-106
Market (19 books)+3.5+139
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.547.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5-105-138+6.7%
MoneylineTampa Bay Buccaneers ML+154+128+4.4%
TotalOver 39.5-105-125shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.7.

TOM: moneyline +139 here against +160 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

New York Jets at Chicago BearsJets at Bears
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bears -3
should be Bears -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bears by 3, the Nasty Number says Bears by 3.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jets than the bookmore Bears →
Market
Bears by 3
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey
Bears by 52.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bears by 3.50.6 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Bears. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bears by 3.5opened Bears by 3now Bears by 3SatSunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43
The Four
Massey
43.90.9 pts over the market
FPI
40.62.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.20.7 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.7 points of the book.
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Kalshi-2.543.5 -112 51¢-161 60¢+129 42¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -11043 -110——
All 22 books
Bears spreadTotal (over)Bears MLJets ML
Kalshi-2.543.5 -112 51¢-161 60¢+129 42¢
Bally Bet-3 -10642.5 -112-159+130
BetAnything-3 -11043 -110-155+135
BetMGM-3 -10843 -110-160+130
BetOnline.ag-3 -11043 -110——
betPARX-3 -10642.5 -112-159+130
BetRivers-3 -10642.5 -112-159+130
BetUS-3 -11043 -110-155+134
Caesars-3 -10643 -110-154+130
Courtside-3 +10042.5 -108-152+133
DraftKings-3 -10242.5 -110-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 56¢ -138 all-in42.5 54¢ -127 all-in62¢ -178 all-in45¢ +113 all-in
FanDuel-3 -11043.5 -110-164+138
Fliff-2.5 -13043.5 -105-170+135
Hard Rock Bet-3 -10543 -110-160+135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -10543 -110-160+135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -10543 -110-160+135
LowVig.ag-3 -10543 -107——
MyBookie.ag-3 -11043 -110-164+128
Polymarket——-156—
ReBet-3.5 +10042.5 -120-161+131
theScore Bet-2.5 -12043.5 -110-145+125

Marked: best for Bears, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bears -3.0 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Bears): DraftKings -3 at -102 (4.5%) · Caesars -3 at -106 (3.6%) · BetMGM -3 at -108 (3.1%) · FanDuel -3 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (1.0%).
A Little Nasty
Bears to win · -159 at BetMGM
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 61. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Bears to win): Caesars or DraftKings -154 (3.2%) · BetMGM or Kalshi -160 (2.3%) · FanDuel -164 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (-0.1%).
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 43.5 at -110 (-0.0%) · BetMGM 43 at -108 (-1.0%) · Kalshi 43.5 at 52¢ (-1.3%) · Caesars 43 at -110 (-1.5%) · DraftKings 42.5 at -110 (-3.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Bears -3.0 · -102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 61°F.

Kalshi thin: Chicago Bears -2.5, only $18 available; Chicago Bears -2.5, only $180 available; New York Jets +2.5, only $14 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

QB out: Caleb Williams (Bears), Out. Priced at 2.5 points off Massey, so the number here already carries the backup.

Also out: Mason Taylor (TE, Jets), Kyler Gordon (CB, Bears), Nahshon Wright (CB, Jets) and 4 more.

Chicago Bears has had 14 days off against 7, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail
We settle onBears by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New York Jets's last game
FPIhasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen New York Jets's last game
Massey-5.0-299
Market (19 books)-3.0-146
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.042.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadChicago Bears -3.0-102-122+4.5%
MoneylineChicago Bears ML-159-177+2.5%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Denver Broncos at San Francisco 49ersBroncos at 49ers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
49ers -3
should be 49ers -3.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Caesars
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says 49ers by 3, the Nasty Number says 49ers by 3.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Broncos than the bookmore 49ers →
Market
49ers by 3
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey
49ers by 52.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
49ers by 3.50.5 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean 49ers. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Caesars's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49ers by 3.5opened 49ers by 3now 49ers by 3SatSunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
Massey
45.21.3 pts under the market
FPI
470.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
46.10.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
Kalshi-2.546.5 -112 51¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
All 17 books
49ers spreadTotal (over)49ers MLBroncos ML
Kalshi-2.546.5 -112 51¢-155 59¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
BetMGM-3 -10546.5 -108-150+125
betPARX-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
BetRivers-3 -10846.5 -108-152+125
Caesars-3 +10046.5 -108-145+125
Courtside-3 -10846.5 -108-159+139
DraftKings-3 -11046.5 -110-162+136
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 57¢ -144 all-in45.5 55¢ -132 all-in63¢ -185 all-in43¢ +123 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -12046.5 -106-146+124
Fliff-2.5 -12546.5 -110-160+125
Hard Rock Bet-3 -11046.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-3 -11046.5 -110-145+125
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-3 -11046.5 -110-145+125
Polymarket——-138—
ReBet-2.5 -13346.5 -110-157+128
theScore Bet-3 -11046.5 -105-150+130

Marked: best for 49ers, higher payout on each moneyline.

49ers -3.0 · +100 at Caesars
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (49ers): Caesars -3 at +100 (3.4%) · FanDuel -2.5 at -120 (2.9%) · BetMGM -3 at -105 (2.2%) · DraftKings -3 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -2.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-1.6%).
A Little Nasty
49ers to win · -150 at BetMGM
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 60. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (49ers to win): Caesars or FanDuel -145 (3.4%) · BetMGM -150 (2.6%) · Kalshi 59¢ (1.9%) · DraftKings -162 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 63¢ on the app (-185 all-in) (-2.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
Massey projects 45 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 51¢ (-2.5%) · Caesars 46.5 at -113 (-2.8%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -114 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-6.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is 49ers -3.0 · +100 at Caesars. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: San Francisco 49ers -2.5, only $66 available; San Francisco 49ers -2.5, only $123 available; Denver Broncos +2.5, only $160 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Sam Ehlinger (Broncos), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Marvin Mims Jr. (WR, Broncos), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (WR, Broncos), Ephesians Prysock (CB, 49ers) and 2 more.

Full detail
We settle on49ers by 3.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Denver Broncos and San Francisco 49ers's last game
Massey-5.0-210
Market (14 books)-3.0-140
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.546.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Francisco 49ers -3.0+100-115+3.4%
MoneylineSan Francisco 49ers ML-150-167+2.6%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Indianapolis Colts at Washington CommandersColts at Commanders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 8:30am · neutral
Commanders +3
should be Commanders +2.5 · getting 0.5 pts at DraftKings · was +4.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Colts by 3, the Nasty Number says Colts by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Commanders →
Market
Colts by 3TOM, -102
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Massey
Colts by 12 pts our side
Nasty Number
Colts by 2.50.4 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Commanders. The Nasty Number is 0.4 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Colts by 2.5opened Colts by 4.5now Colts by 3SatSunMon

The market has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Commanders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5TOM
The Four
Massey
52.24.7 pts over the market
FPI
46.90.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.62.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.6opened 47.5now 47.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3 -10247.5 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢46.5 -116 52¢+134 41¢-175 62¢
Pinnacle+3 -10247 -107+143-166
All 25 books
Commanders spreadTotal (over)Commanders MLColts ML
TOM+3 -10247.5 -105+135-165
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢46.5 -116 52¢+134 41¢-175 62¢
Bally Bet+3 -10646.5 -113+145-180
BetAnything+3 +10046.5 -110+145-165
BetMGM+3 -10247 -110+140-175
BetOnline.ag+3 -10247.5 -105+145-165
betPARX+3 -10646.5 -113+145-180
BetRivers+3 -10646.5 -113+145-180
BetUS+3 +10047 -110+142-165
Bovada+3 -10547 -110+140-165
Caesars+3 +10047.5 -104+139-164
Courtside+3 +10047.5 +100+145-166
DraftKings+3 -10247.5 -102+142-170
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 56¢ -138 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in42¢ +127 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
FanDuel+3.5 -12047.5 -106+148-174
Fliff+3.5 -11547.5 -105+140-180
Hard Rock Bet+3 +10047 -110+145-175
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3 +10047 -110+145-175
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3 +10047 -110+145-175
LowVig.ag+3 +10247.5 -102+145-165
MyBookie.ag+3 -10547 -110+137-176
Pinnacle+3 -10247 -107+143-166
Polymarket+3.546.5——
ReBet+3.5 -12546.5 -120+140-172
theScore Bet+3 -10546.5 -120+150-175

Marked: best for Commanders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Commanders +3.0 · -102 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Commanders): Caesars +3 at +100 (3.6%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or TOM +3 at -102 (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (3.0%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Commanders to win · +148 at FanDuel
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Commanders loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Commanders to win): FanDuel +148 (3.1%) · DraftKings +142 (2.1%) · BetMGM or Caesars +140 (1.7%) · TOM or Kalshi +135 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (-0.6%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 47.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 52 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 47.5 at -102 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%) · BetMGM 47 at -110 (-0.7%) · Caesars 47.5 at -104 (-0.8%) · TOM 47.5 at -105 (-1.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Commanders +3.0 · -102 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +3.0. The market has moved 1.4 toward Commanders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Under 46.5, only $24 available; Washington Commanders +3.5, only $356 available; Over 46.5, only $95 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Riley Leonard (Colts), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: DJ Giddens (RB, Colts), Darius Slayton (WR, Colts), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts) and 5 more.

Neutral site, so no home field in the number.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.0 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onColts by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
FPIhasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Indianapolis Colts and Washington Commanders's last game
Massey+1.0+106
Market (21 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.549.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineWashington Commanders ML+148+130+3.1%
SpreadWashington Commanders +3.0-102-115+3.1%
TotalOver 47.5-105-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Washington Commanders since 09-26 08:39; total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 47.0 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +157 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Neutral site, so no home-field points were added to the projection.

NFL ratings edges stay Damn Near Nasty until the record earns them. In the NFL the picks come from stale numbers and prices, not power ratings.

Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle SeahawksChargers at Seahawks
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Seahawks -7
should be Seahawks -7 at BetMGM
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Seahawks by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Seahawks by 7. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Chargers than the bookmore Seahawks →
Market
Seahawks by 6.5TOM, -120
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey
Seahawks by 103.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Seahawks by 70.7 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Seahawks. The Nasty Number is 0.7 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

BetMGM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Seahawks by 7opened Seahawks by 6.5now Seahawks by 7SunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Seahawks is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43TOM
The Four
Massey
40.42.6 pts under the market
FPI
41.11.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
40.82.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 40.8opened 44now 43SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44 to 43. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-6.5 -12043 -110-305+230
Pinnacle-6.5 -11743 -105-305+248
All 24 books
Seahawks spreadTotal (over)Seahawks MLChargers ML
TOM-6.5 -12043 -110-305+230
Bally Bet-6.5 -11843.5 -110-335+255
BetAnything-6.5 -12043 -110-310+250
BetMGM-7 +10043 -110-325+260
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -12043 -110-305+249
betPARX-6.5 -11843.5 -110-335+255
BetRivers-6.5 -11843.5 -110-335+255
BetUS-6.5 -12043 -110-305+253
Bovada-7 -10543 -110-300+250
Caesars-6.5 -11443.5 -108-320+255
Courtside-6.5 -11343.5 -103-302+256
DraftKings-6.5 -11543.5 -105-310+250
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 55¢ -132 all-in42.5 56¢ -138 all-in76¢ -355 all-in31¢ +203 all-in
FanDuel-6.5 -11843.5 -106-335+270
Fliff-6.5 -12043.5 -110-340+245
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11543 -115-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6.5 -11543 -115-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6.5 -11543 -115-325+260
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11643 -107-305+249
MyBookie.ag-6.5 -12043 -110-330+244
Pinnacle-6.5 -11743 -105-305+248
Polymarket-6.5 -117—-285—
ReBet-6.5 -12543.5 -109-319+250
theScore Bet-6.5 -11043.5 -105-320+260

Marked: best for Seahawks, higher payout on each moneyline.

Seahawks -7.0 · +100 at BetMGM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Seahawks): BetMGM -7 at +100 (1.4%) · Caesars -6.5 at -114 (0.8%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -115 (0.6%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -118 (-0.0%) · TOM -6.5 at -120 (-0.5%).
Not Nasty
Seahawks to win · -305 at TOM
We make it 75 in 100 to win. The price says 75. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 75 cents fair, a play under 71. Where, best first (Seahawks to win): TOM -305 (-0.2%) · DraftKings -310 (-0.5%) · Caesars -320 (-1.1%) · BetMGM -325 (-1.4%) · FanDuel -335 (-1.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 43.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 40 and FPI projects 41. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 43.5 at -112 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -114 (-0.7%) · BetMGM 43 at -108 (-0.8%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -115 (-0.9%) · TOM 43 at -110 (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Seahawks -7.0 · +100 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 63°F.

Kalshi thin: Los Angeles Chargers +6.5, only $57 available; Los Angeles Chargers ML, only $184 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Jalen Milroe (Seahawks), Out; DJ Uiagalelei (Chargers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Montorie Foster Jr. (WR, Seahawks), Brenen Thompson (WR, Chargers), Charlie Kolar (TE, Chargers) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onSeahawks by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
FPIhasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Los Angeles Chargers and Seattle Seahawks's last game
Massey-10.0-405
Market (21 books)-6.5-292
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.040.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSeattle Seahawks -7.0+100-106+1.4%
MoneylineSeattle Seahawks ML-305-302-0.2%
TotalUnder 43.0-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati BengalsJaguars at Bengals
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Under 51.5
should be 50.4 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bengals by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Bengals by 1.5. 0.8 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Jaguars than the bookmore Bengals →
Market
Bengals by 2.5TOM, -115
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Massey
Jaguars by 13.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Bengals by 1.50.8 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Jaguars. The Nasty Number is 0.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bengals by 1.5opened Bengals by 1.5now Bengals by 2.5SunMon

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Jaguars's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
51.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
Massey
48.82.7 pts under the market
FPI
47.44.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.13.4 pts under the market
Under 51.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.1opened 51.5now 51.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11551.5 -110-136+116
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢51.5 +101 48¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Pinnacle-2.5 -10451 -109-135+117
All 25 books
Bengals spreadTotal (over)Bengals MLJaguars ML
TOM-2.5 -11551.5 -110-136+116
Kalshi-2.5 -107 50¢51.5 +101 48¢-131 55¢+109 46¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11051 -110-139+116
BetAnything-2.5 -11051 -110-135+115
BetMGM-2.5 -11051 -110-135+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11551.5 -110-136+116
betPARX-2.5 -11051 -110-139+116
BetRivers-2.5 -11051 -110-139+116
BetUS-2 -11551.5 -110-135+115
Bovada-2.5 -10551 -110-135+115
Caesars-2.5 -11251.5 -106-136+115
Courtside-2.5 -10851.5 -103-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11051.5 -105-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in51.5 52¢ -117 all-in59¢ -157 all-in48¢ -100 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -11050.5 -115-130+110
Fliff-2.5 -11050.5 -120-135+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11051 -110-130+110
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11051 -110-130+110
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11051 -110-130+110
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11051.5 -107-136+116
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11051 -110-141+110
Pinnacle-2.5 -10451 -109-135+117
Polymarket———+117
ReBet-2.5 -12051.5 -109-138+113
theScore Bet-2.5 -11050.5 -115-130+110

Marked: best for Jaguars, higher payout on each moneyline.

Jaguars +2.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Jaguars): TOM +2.5 at -105 (0.9%) · Caesars or BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (0.2%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (-0.2%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 51¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-4.8%).
Not Nasty
Jaguars to win · +116 at TOM
We make it 47 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 47 cents fair, a play under 42. Where, best first (Jaguars to win): TOM +116 (0.5%) · Caesars or BetMGM +115 (0.3%) · DraftKings +114 (0.1%) · FanDuel +110 (-0.8%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. That's 3.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 51.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars 51.5 at -114 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 51 at -108 (-0.2%) · DraftKings 51.5 at -115 (-0.3%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -105 (-1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 51.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F, 49% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Cincinnati Bengals -2.5, only $94 available; Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5, only $93 available; Over 51.5, only $163 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: CJ Williams (WR, Jaguars), Daniel Faalele (G, Jaguars), Connor Lew (C, Bengals) and 5 more.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBengals by 1.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
FPIhasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Jacksonville Jaguars and Cincinnati Bengals's last game
Massey+1.0+108
Market (21 books)-2.5-130
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points51.548.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadJacksonville Jaguars +2.5-105-109+0.9%
MoneylineJacksonville Jaguars ML+116+114+0.5%
TotalUnder 51.5-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM: total 51.5 here against 51.0 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia EaglesRams at Eagles
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Eagles +2.5
should be Eagles +1.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 2, the Nasty Number says Rams by 1.5. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Rams than the bookmore Eagles →
Market
Rams by 2
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey
Eagles by 13.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Rams by 1.50.9 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Eagles. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 1.5opened Rams by 3now Rams by 2.5SatSunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Eagles is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46.5
The Four
Massey
46.50.3 pts over the market
FPI
45.31 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.90.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Kalshi+2.546.5+114 45¢-143 57¢
All 16 books
Eagles spreadTotal (over)Eagles MLRams ML
Kalshi+2.546.5+114 45¢-143 57¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -11046 -112+112-136
BetMGM+1.5 -10846.5 -108+105-125
betPARX+2.5 -11046 -112+112-136
BetRivers+2.5 -11046 -112+112-136
Caesars+1.5 -10546.5 -108+114-134
Courtside+1.5 -10346.5 -108+112-127
DraftKings+1.5 -10546.5 -110+110-130
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 53¢ -122 all-in45.5 57¢ -144 all-in49¢ -104 all-in57¢ -144 all-in
FanDuel+2.5 -11046.5 -106+116-136
Fliff+2.5 -11546.5 -105+115-145
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 -10546 -110+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+2.5 -10546 -110+115-135
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+2.5 -10546 -110+115-135
ReBet+2.5 -11046.5 -110+110-135
theScore Bet+2.5 -11046.5 -105+115-135

Marked: best for Eagles, higher payout on each moneyline.

Eagles +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Eagles): FanDuel +2.5 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings or Caesars +1.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +1.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-4.6%).
Not Nasty
Eagles to win · +113 (45¢) at Kalshi
We make it 48 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 48 cents fair, a play under 43. Where, best first (Eagles to win): FanDuel +116 (1.7%) · Caesars or Kalshi +114 (1.2%) · DraftKings +110 (0.4%) · BetMGM +105 (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 46.5 · -110
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or BetMGM 46.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 46.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · FanDuel 46.5 at -114 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Eagles +2.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F, 32% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $37 available; Over 46.5, only $12 available; Philadelphia Eagles +2.5, only $168 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Ty Simpson (Rams), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Hollywood Brown (WR, Eagles), Dallas Goedert (TE, Eagles), Fred Johnson (OT, Eagles) and 4 more.

Philadelphia Eagles has had 14 days off against 6, worth about 0.4 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
FPIhasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Los Angeles Rams's last game
Massey-1.0-101
Market (14 books)+2.0+123
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.545.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylinePhiladelphia Eagles ML+113+108+1.0%
SpreadPhiladelphia Eagles +2.5-110-113+0.7%
TotalUnder 46.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kansas City Chiefs at Las Vegas RaidersChiefs at Raiders
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:25pm
Raiders +4.5
should be Raiders +4 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 4. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Chiefs than the bookmore Raiders →
Market
Chiefs by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Massey
Chiefs by 31.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 40.5 pts off the market
All 1 systems lean Raiders. The Nasty Number is 0.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. nfelo and FPI and Sagarin haven't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 4opened Chiefs by 6now Chiefs by 5.5SatSunMon

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Raiders is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
Massey
42.94.1 pts under the market
FPI
42.74.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
42.84.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.8opened 48.5now 47SunMon

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 48.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4.5 -11047 -110+180-220
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-208 66¢
Pinnacle+4.5 -10848 +100+182-216
All 25 books
Raiders spreadTotal (over)Raiders MLChiefs ML
TOM+4.5 -11047 -110+180-220
Kalshi+4.5 -112 51¢47.5 -112 51¢+166 36¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+4.5 -11047.5 -109+175-215
BetAnything+4.5 -11047 -110+170-200
BetMGM—47 -115+180-220
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11047 -110+186-220
betPARX+4.5 -11047.5 -109+175-215
BetRivers+4.5 -11047.5 -109+175-215
BetUS+4.5 -11047 -110+185-220
Bovada+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-220
Caesars+4.5 -10847.5 -109+184-225
Courtside+5.5 -11347.5 -108+199-232
DraftKings+5.5 -11547.5 -110+195-238
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 51¢ -113 all-in36¢ +163 all-in70¢ -257 all-in
FanDuel+4.5 -11547.5 -105+180-215
Fliff+4.5 -11047.5 -110+180-240
Hard Rock Bet+4 -10547.5 -110+185-225
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+4 -10547.5 -110+185-225
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+4 -10547.5 -110+185-225
LowVig.ag+4.5 -10547 -107+186-220
MyBookie.ag+4.5 -11047.5 -110+172-224
Pinnacle+4.5 -10848 +100+182-216
Polymarket+4.546.5 -127—-203
ReBet+4.5 -11047.5 -110+176-220
theScore Bet+4 -10547.5 -105+180-215

Marked: best for Raiders, higher payout on each moneyline.

Raiders +5.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Raiders): DraftKings +5.5 at -115 (0.4%) · Caesars +4.5 at -108 (-0.7%) · TOM +4.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi +4.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -115 (-2.3%).
Not Nasty
Raiders to win · +195 at DraftKings
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 34. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. Where, best first (Raiders to win): DraftKings +195 (1.2%) · Caesars +184 (-0.1%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or TOM +180 (-0.6%) · Kalshi 36¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (-2.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 47.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 43 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): BetMGM 47 at -102 (1.9%) · DraftKings or Caesars 47.5 at -110 (1.4%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (0.3%) · TOM 47 at -110 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +4.5. The market has moved 1.0 toward Raiders, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Under 47.5, only $12 available; Las Vegas Raiders +4.5, only $27 available; Under 46.5, only $261 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Garrett Nussmeier (Chiefs), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Jack Bech (WR, Raiders), Jared Wiley (TE, Chiefs), Diego Pounds (OT, Chiefs) and 5 more.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 430% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
FPIhasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Kansas City Chiefs and Las Vegas Raiders's last game
Massey+3.0+148
Market (21 books)+4.5+188
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.042.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineLas Vegas Raiders ML+195+185+1.2%
SpreadLas Vegas Raiders +5.5-115-117+0.4%
TotalUnder 47.0-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Las Vegas Raiders since 09-26 16:16; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 47.7 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Arizona Cardinals at New York GiantsCardinals at Giants
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Giants +1
should be Giants -0.5 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Cardinals by 1, the Nasty Number says Giants by 0.5. 1.5 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Cardinals than the bookmore Giants →
Market
Cardinals by 1TOM, -109
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
Massey
a pick'em
Nasty Number
Giants by 0.51.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Giants by 0.5opened Giants by 1now Cardinals by 1SunMon

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Giants by 1 to Cardinals by 1. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44.5TOM
The Four
Massey
44.4on the market
FPI
41.62.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
431.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43opened 43.5now 44.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 43.5 to 44.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1 -10944.5 -110——
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢44.5 -103 49¢-103 49¢-121 53¢
Pinnacle-1.5 +11043.5 -117-106-108
All 25 books
Giants spreadTotal (over)Giants MLCardinals ML
TOM+1 -10944.5 -110——
Kalshi+1.5 -121 53¢44.5 -103 49¢-103 49¢-121 53¢
Bally Bet-1 -10543.5 -109-112-109
BetAnythingPK -11044.5 -110——
BetMGM+1 -11244 -112-105-112
BetOnline.ag+1 -10944.5 -110——
betPARX-1 -10543.5 -109-112-109
BetRivers-1 -10543.5 -109-112-109
BetUSPK -11044.5 -110——
Bovada+1 -11544 -110-110-110
Caesars+1.5 -12444.5 -105-112-107
Courtside+1.5 -11644.5 -106-103-113
DraftKings+1.5 -11844.5 -108-105-115
DraftKings Predictions+1.5 57¢ -144 all-in45.5 50¢ -108 all-in52¢ -117 all-in55¢ -132 all-in
FanDuel-1.5 +10243.5 -118-110-106
Fliff-1.5 +10044.5 -105-110-110
Hard Rock Bet+1 -11544 -115-110-110
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+1 -11544 -115-110-110
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+1 -11544 -115-110-110
LowVig.ag+1 -10444.5 -107——
MyBookie.ag-1 -11044.5 -110-112-113
Pinnacle-1.5 +11043.5 -117-106-108
Polymarket——+104-108
ReBet+0.5 -11044.5 -109-110-111
theScore Bet+1.5 -13044.5 +100-105-115

Marked: best for the Giants side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Giants +1.0 · -109 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Giants): TOM +1 at -109 (-0.5%) · BetMGM +1 at -112 (-1.2%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -118 (-1.2%) · FanDuel -1.5 at +102 (-1.8%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (-1.9%).
Not Nasty
Giants to win · -103 (49¢) at Kalshi
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 51. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Giants to win): Kalshi 49¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings or BetMGM -105 (-1.1%) · FanDuel -110 (-2.2%) · Caesars -112 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 44.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 44.5 at -110 (0.6%) · BetMGM 44 at -105 (0.3%) · DraftKings 44.5 at -112 (0.2%) · Caesars or Kalshi 44.5 at -115 (-0.5%) · FanDuel 43.5 at -104 (-1.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 67°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -2.5, now -0.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward Cardinals).

Kalshi thin: New York Giants +1.5, only $282 available; Arizona Cardinals -1.5, only $103 available; Over 44.5, only $235 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Carson Beck (Cardinals), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Devin Singletary (RB, Giants), Reggie Virgil (WR, Cardinals), Josh Fryar (OT, Cardinals) and 5 more.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.6 consensus.

TOM: total 44.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGiants by 0.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
FPIhasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Arizona Cardinals and New York Giants's last game
MasseyPK-100
Market (21 books)+1.0+101
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.543.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew York Giants +1.0-109-107-0.5%
MoneylineNew York Giants ML-103-101-0.6%
TotalUnder 44.5-110-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Arizona Cardinals since 09-26 12:11.

TOM: spread +1.0 here against -0.6 consensus; total 44.5 here against 43.8 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Tennessee Titans at Baltimore RavensTitans at Ravens
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Ravens -11.5
should be Ravens -11.5 · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Ravens by 11.5, the Nasty Number says Ravens by 11.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Titans than the bookmore Ravens →
Market
Ravens by 11.5TOM, +105
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey
Ravens by 10.5
Nasty Number
Ravens by 11.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ravens by 11.5opened Ravens by 11now Ravens by 11.5SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Ravens by 11 to Ravens by 11.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
Massey
45.62.1 pts over the market
FPI
45.31.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
45.52 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.5opened 43.5now 43.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 +10543.5 -108——
Kalshi-11.5 -112 51¢43.5-719 87¢+530 15¢
BetOnline.ag-11.5 +10543.5 -108-625+461
All 23 books
Ravens spreadTotal (over)Ravens MLTitans ML
TOM-11.5 +10543.5 -108——
Kalshi-11.5 -112 51¢43.5-719 87¢+530 15¢
Bally Bet-11.5 -10943 -110-715+500
BetAnything-11.5 -11043.5 -110-650+450
BetMGM-11.5 -10843.5 -108-700+525
BetOnline.ag-11.5 +10543.5 -108-625+461
betPARX-11.5 -10943 -110-715+500
BetRivers-11.5 -10943 -110-715+500
BetUS-11.5 -10543.5 -110-625+465
Caesars-11.5 -10643.5 -110-700+480
Courtside-11.5 -10643.5 -108-669+519
DraftKings-11.5 -10843.5 -110-700+500
DraftKings Predictions-10.5 55¢ -132 all-in42.5 57¢ -144 all-in88¢ -900 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
FanDuel-11.5 -11043.5 -110-750+530
Fliff-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+485
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+525
LowVig.ag-11.5 +10443.5 -105-625+461
MyBookie.ag-11.5 -11043.5 -110-847+500
Polymarket——-669+567
ReBet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-800+520
theScore Bet-11.5 -11043.5 -110-900+550

Marked: best for the Ravens side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Titans +11.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Titans): FanDuel or BetMGM +11.5 at -110 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -112 (-2.4%) · Caesars +11.5 at -113 (-2.7%) · TOM +11.5 at -125 (-5.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +10.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-6.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Titans to win · +500 at DraftKings
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Titans to win): FanDuel, Kalshi or BetMGM +530 (2.6%) · DraftKings +500 (1.8%) · Caesars +480 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (-1.5%).
Off the band
the Over 43.5 · -108 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): BetMGM or TOM 43.5 at -108 (-0.3%) · DraftKings, Caesars or FanDuel 43.5 at -110 (-0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 42.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 8 mph wind, 69°F, 39% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -10.5, now -11.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Ravens).

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Titans +11.5, only $12 available; Over 43.5, only $1 available; Baltimore Ravens -10.5, only $148 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Joe Fagnano (Ravens), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Michael Carter (RB, Titans), Elijah Sarratt (WR, Ravens), Kylen Granson (TE, Titans) and 5 more.

Full detail
We settle onRavens by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
FPIhasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens's last game
Massey-10.5-433
Market (19 books)-11.5-644
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.545.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTennessee Titans +11.5-110-102-2.0%
MoneylineTennessee Titans ML+500+440priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 43.5-108-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Baltimore Ravens since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.3.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

New England Patriots at Buffalo BillsPatriots at Bills
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Bills -7
should be Bills -6.5 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Bills by 7, the Nasty Number says Bills by 6.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Patriots than the bookmore Bills →
Market
Bills by 7TOM, -104
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey
Bills by 6
Nasty Number
Bills by 6.50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Bills by 6.5opened Bills by 7now Bills by 7SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
Massey
46.32.2 pts under the market
FPI
50.82.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.6on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.6opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-7 -10448.5 -107-305+230
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢48.5 -107 50¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
Pinnacle-7 +10048.5 -101-309+250
All 25 books
Bills spreadTotal (over)Bills MLPatriots ML
TOM-7 -10448.5 -107-305+230
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢48.5 -107 50¢-306 74¢+252 27¢
Bally Bet-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetAnything-6.5 -11548.5 -110-300+240
BetMGM-6.5 -11548.5 -108-325+260
BetOnline.ag-7 -10448.5 -107-305+249
betPARX-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetRivers-6.5 -11748.5 -109-335+255
BetUS-7 -10548.5 -105-305+253
Bovada-7 -10548 -110-310+255
Caesars-7 -10548.5 -110-325+260
Courtside-7 -10348.5 -108-302+256
DraftKings-7 -10548.5 -110-310+250
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 56¢ -138 all-in48.5 53¢ -122 all-in77¢ -376 all-in30¢ +212 all-in
FanDuel-6.5 -11848.5 -110-330+265
Fliff-6.5 -12048.5 -105-335+240
Hard Rock Bet-6.5 -11548 -110-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6.5 -11548 -110-325+260
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6.5 -11548 -110-325+260
LowVig.ag-7 +10048.5 -104-305+249
MyBookie.ag-7 -11048.5 -110-319+232
Pinnacle-7 +10048.5 -101-309+250
Polymarket-6.5 -10848.5——
ReBet-6.5 -12048.5 -110-310+238
theScore Bet-7 -10548.5 -110-320+260

Marked: best for the Bills side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Patriots +7.0 · -116 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Patriots): DraftKings or Caesars +7 at -115 (-1.4%) · TOM +7 at -116 (-1.6%) · FanDuel +6.5 at -104 (-1.7%) · BetMGM +6.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Patriots to win · +265 at FanDuel
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Patriots to win): FanDuel +265 (-0.1%) · Caesars or BetMGM +260 (-0.5%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +252 (-1.1%) · TOM +230 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 30¢ on the app (+212 all-in) (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -113 at TOM
Massey projects 46 and FPI projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (-2.3%) · TOM 48.5 at -113 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-6.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 66°F, 27% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -7.0 (the market moved 1.4 toward Bills).

Kalshi thin: New England Patriots +6.5, only $23 available; Under 48.5, only $12 available; New England Patriots +6.5, only $273 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Behren Morton (Patriots), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Skyler Bell (WR, Bills), Eli Raridon (TE, Patriots), Ar'maj Reed-Adams (G, Bills) and 3 more.

Full detail
We settle onBills by 6.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
FPIhasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills's last game
Massey-6.0-229
Market (21 books)-7.0-292
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.548.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew England Patriots +7.0-116-109-1.6%
MoneylineNew England Patriots ML+265+267-0.1%
TotalUnder 48.5-113-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward Buffalo Bills since 09-26 12:11; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Dallas Cowboys at Houston TexansCowboys at Texans
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 12:00pm
Texans -2.5
should be Texans -2.5 · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Texans by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Texans by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Cowboys than the bookmore Texans →
Market
Texans by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Massey
Texans by 3
Nasty Number
Texans by 2.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texans by 2.5opened Texans by 1.5now Texans by 2.5SunMon

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Texans by 1.5 to Texans by 2.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48TOM
The Four
Massey
49.31.3 pts over the market
FPI
47.30.7 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.30.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.3opened 48now 48SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11048 -105-136+116
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢47.5 -116 52¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Pinnacle-2 -11347.5 -111-136+118
All 25 books
Texans spreadTotal (over)Texans MLCowboys ML
TOM-2.5 -11048 -105-136+116
Kalshi-2.5 -112 51¢47.5 -116 52¢-143 57¢+118 44¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11047 -113-143+118
BetAnything-2.5 -11048 -110-135+115
BetMGM-2.5 -11047.5 -110-140+115
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11048 -105-136+116
betPARX-2.5 -11047 -113-143+118
BetRivers-2.5 -11047 -113-143+118
BetUS-2 -11548 -105-135+115
Bovada-2.5 -11048 -105-135+115
Caesars-2.5 -11347.5 -112-137+116
Courtside-2.5 -10847.5 -113-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11047.5 -115-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in48.5 51¢ -113 all-in59¢ -157 all-in48¢ -100 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -11047.5 -104-136+116
Fliff-1.5 -12047.5 -105-130+105
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-2.5 -11547.5 -110-135+115
LowVig.ag-2.5 -10548 -102-136+116
MyBookie.ag-2.5 -11047.5 -110-140+110
Pinnacle-2 -11347.5 -111-136+118
Polymarket—47.5 -113-133+122
ReBet-2.5 -12047.5 -110-137+112
theScore Bet-2.5 -11046.5 -120-135+115

Marked: best for the Texans side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cowboys +2.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Cowboys): Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-1.4%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM +2.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-5.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Cowboys to win · +116 at Caesars
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Cowboys to win): Kalshi 44¢ (-1.1%) · Caesars, FanDuel or TOM +116 (-1.6%) · BetMGM +115 (-1.8%) · DraftKings +114 (-2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-5.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.0 · -115 at TOM
Massey projects 49 and FPI projects 47. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 47.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-2.7%) · TOM 48 at -115 (-2.7%) · Caesars 47.5 at -109 (-2.9%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -118 (-4.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Across the books: opened -3.0, now -2.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Cowboys).

Kalshi thin: Dallas Cowboys +2.5, only $5 available; Under 47.5, only $13 available; Houston Texans -2.5, only $28 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Emari Demercado (RB, Cowboys), Nico Collins (WR, Texans), Brevin Jordan (TE, Texans) and 5 more.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus.

TOM: total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexans by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
FPIhasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans's last game
Massey-3.0-140
Market (21 books)-2.5-130
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.048.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDallas Cowboys +2.5-110-101-2.1%
MoneylineDallas Cowboys ML+116+124-1.6%
TotalUnder 48.0-115-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Dallas Cowboys since 09-26 12:11.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -2.2 consensus; total 48.0 here against 47.5 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota VikingsDolphins at Vikings
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 3:05pm
Vikings -10
should be Vikings -10 · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Vikings by 10, the Nasty Number says Vikings by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Dolphins than the bookmore Vikings →
Market
Vikings by 10TOM, -110
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Massey
Vikings by 10
Nasty Number
Vikings by 100 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Vikings by 10opened Vikings by 10now Vikings by 10SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
39.5TOM
The Four
Massey
39.4on the market
FPI
40.30.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
39.80.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.8opened 40.5now 39.5SunMon

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 40.5 to 39.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-10 -11039.5 -103-550+400
Kalshi-10.539.5-564 84¢+456 17¢
BetOnline.ag-10 -11039.5 -103-550+415
All 23 books
Vikings spreadTotal (over)Vikings MLDolphins ML
TOM-10 -11039.5 -103-550+400
Kalshi-10.539.5-564 84¢+456 17¢
Bally Bet-10 -10939.5 -112-590+425
BetAnything-10 -11039.5 -110-550+410
BetMGM-10 -11039 -115-600+450
BetOnline.ag-10 -11039.5 -103-550+415
betPARX-10 -10939.5 -112-590+425
BetRivers-10 -10939.5 -112-590+425
BetUS-10 -11039.5 -105-550+425
Caesars-10 -11039.5 -112-560+425
Courtside-10 -10839.5 -106-600+471
DraftKings-10 -11039.5 -108-625+455
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 55¢ -132 all-in39.5 53¢ -122 all-in86¢ -733 all-in21¢ +335 all-in
FanDuel-9.5 -12039.5 -106-560+420
Fliff-9.5 -12039.5 -115-585+380
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -11039.5 -110-575+400
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-10.5 -11039.5 -110-575+400
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-10.5 -11039.5 -110-575+400
LowVig.ag-10 -10539.5 +100-550+415
MyBookie.ag-10 -11039.5 -110-599+390
Polymarket———+525
ReBet-9.5 -12539.5 -110-575+410
theScore Bet-10 -11039.5 -105-650+425

Marked: best for the Vikings side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vikings -10.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Vikings): DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -10 at -110 (-2.3%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -120 (-2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions -9.5 at 55¢ on the app (-132 all-in) (-5.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Vikings to win · -550 at TOM
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Vikings to win): TOM -550 (-4.3%) · Caesars, FanDuel or Kalshi -560 (-4.5%) · BetMGM -600 (-5.4%) · DraftKings -625 (-5.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 86¢ on the app (-733 all-in) (-7.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 39.5 · -103 at TOM
Massey projects 39 and FPI projects 40. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 39.5 at -103 (-0.4%) · FanDuel 39.5 at -106 (-1.1%) · BetMGM 39 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings 39.5 at -108 (-1.6%) · Caesars 39.5 at -112 (-2.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Minnesota Vikings -10.5, only $12 available; Over 39.5, only $12 available; Minnesota Vikings -9.5, only $73 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Brady Cook (Dolphins), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: De'Von Achane (RB, Dolphins), Jaylen Wright (RB, Dolphins), Caleb Douglas (WR, Dolphins) and 4 more.

Full detail
We settle onVikings by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
FPIhasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Miami Dolphins and Minnesota Vikings's last game
Massey-10.0-412
Market (19 books)-10.0-526
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points39.539.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Vikings -10.0-110-100-2.3%
MoneylineMinnesota Vikings ML-550-409priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 39.5-103-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 3.2.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Detroit Lions at Carolina PanthersLions at Panthers
NFL Sun 4 Oct, 7:20pm
Lions -3
should be Lions -3 · no bet
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Lions by 3, the Nasty Number says Lions by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Lions than the bookmore Panthers →
Market
Lions by 3TOM, +102
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
FPI
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Massey
Lions by 3
Nasty Number
Lions by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Lions by 3opened Lions by 3now Lions by 3SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
Massey
55.45.4 pts over the market
FPI
491 pts under the market
Nasty Number
52.22.2 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.2opened 50.5now 50SunMon

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 50.5 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3 +10250 -105+135-160
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢50.5 -112 51¢+146 39¢—
Pinnacle+3 +11050.5 -105+157-183
All 25 books
Panthers spreadTotal (over)Panthers MLLions ML
TOM+3 +10250 -105+135-160
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢50.5 -112 51¢+146 39¢—
Bally Bet+3 -10950 -112+130-159
BetAnything+3 +10050 -110+150-170
BetMGM+3.5 -11550 -110+145-175
BetOnline.ag+3 +10250 -105+149-170
betPARX+3 -10950 -112+130-159
BetRivers+3 -10950 -112+130-159
BetUS+3 +10050 -105+146-170
Bovada+3.5 -11550.5 -105+160-185
Caesars+3 +10150 -110+144-170
Courtside+3.5 -11050.5 -106+153-176
DraftKings+3.5 -11250.5 -108+150-180
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in41¢ +133 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
FanDuel+3 -10649.5 -118+138-164
Fliff+3.5 -12550.5 -110+135-175
Hard Rock Bet+3 +10050 -115+145-170
Hard Rock Bet (FL)+3 +10050 -115+145-170
Hard Rock Bet (OH)+3 +10050 -115+145-170
LowVig.ag+3 +10750 -102+149-170
MyBookie.ag+3.5 -11050.5 -110+138-178
Pinnacle+3 +11050.5 -105+157-183
Polymarket+3.5 -11350.5 -108+156-170
ReBet+3.5 -12550.5 -110+141-174
theScore Bet+3.5 -11550.5 +100+150-175

Marked: best for the Panthers side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Lions -3.0 · -114 at FanDuel
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Lions): FanDuel -3 at -114 (-2.7%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 48¢ (-3.6%) · Caesars -3 at -121 (-4.2%) · BetMGM -3.5 at -102 (-4.3%) · TOM -3 at -122 (-4.4%).
Not Nasty
Lions to win · -160 at TOM
We make it 60 in 100 to win. The price says 62. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 60 cents fair, a play under 56. Where, best first (Lions to win): TOM -160 (-1.3%) · FanDuel -164 (-1.9%) · Caesars -170 (-2.7%) · BetMGM -175 (-3.4%) · DraftKings -180 (-4.0%).
Not Nasty
the Over 50.0 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 55 and FPI projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -105 (1.1%) · Caesars or BetMGM 50 at -110 (-0.1%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -118 (-0.4%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -108 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Detroit Lions ML, only $301 available; Detroit Lions -3.5, only $132 available; Under 50.5, only $163 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Backup QB out: Haynes King (Panthers), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Ja'Tavion Sanders (TE, Panthers), Tyler Conklin (TE, Lions), Bishop Fitzgerald (S, Lions) and 3 more.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus.

TOM: moneyline +141 here against +165 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLions by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
FPIhasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers's last game
Massey+3.0+145
Market (21 books)+3.0+141
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.052.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDetroit Lions -3.0-114-102-2.7%
MoneylineDetroit Lions ML-160-152-1.3%
TotalOver 50.0-105-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 50.3 consensus; moneyline +141 here against +165 consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

Mon Oct 5

1 gameWaiting for the ratings rebuild. 0 a little nasty so far.
GameThe call
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans SaintsFalcons at Saints
NFL Mon 5 Oct, 7:15pm
Under 48.5
should be 47.2 · getting 1.3 pts · was 47.5
Waiting for the ratings updateBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Saints by 3, the Nasty Number says Saints by 3. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Falcons than the bookmore Saints →
Market
Saints by 3TOM, +100
The Four
nfelo
hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
FPI
hasn't seen New Orleans Saints's last game
Sagarin
hasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
Massey
Saints by 3
Nasty Number
Saints by 30.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Saints by 3opened Saints by 2.5now Saints by 3SunMon

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Saints by 2.5 to Saints by 3. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM, Under -105
The Four
Massey
44.14.4 pts under the market
FPI
42.36.2 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.25.3 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 5.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.2opened 48.5now 48.5SunMon

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-3 +10048.5 -115-150+125
Kalshi——-155 59¢+124 43¢
Pinnacle-3 +10248.5 -107-151+133
All 21 books
Saints spreadTotal (over)Saints MLFalcons ML
TOM-3 +10048.5 -115-150+125
Kalshi——-155 59¢+124 43¢
Bally Bet-3 -10547.5 -110-157+128
BetAnything-3 -10548.5 -110-150+130
BetMGM-2.5 -11848.5 -108-150+125
BetOnline.ag-3 +10048.5 -115-150+130
betPARX-3 -10547.5 -110-157+128
BetRivers-3 -10547.5 -110-157+128
BetUS-3 -10548.5 -115-150+129
Bovada-3 +10048.5 -110-150+130
Caesars-2.5 -11848.5 -105-150+127
DraftKings-2.5 -12048.5 -112-155+130
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 55¢ -132 all-in48.5 54¢ -127 all-in61¢ -170 all-in46¢ +108 all-in
FanDuel-2.5 -11847.5 -110-146+124
Fliff-2.5 -12547.5 -115-155+125
LowVig.ag-3 +10548.5 -113-150+130
MyBookie.ag-3 -11048 -110-158+124
Pinnacle-3 +10248.5 -107-151+133
Polymarket-2.5 -12248.5 -108-150+133
ReBet-2.5 -13347.5 -110-155+126
theScore Bet-3 +10047.5 -110-145+125

Marked: best for the Saints side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Falcons +3.0 · -120 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 55 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Falcons): DraftKings +2.5 at +100 (-3.8%) · TOM +3 at -120 (-4.0%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -102 (-4.3%) · Caesars +2.5 at -103 (-4.5%) · FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-4.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Falcons to win · +125 at BetMGM
We make it 41 in 100 to win. The price says 44. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 41 cents fair, a play under 36. Where, best first (Falcons to win): DraftKings +130 (-2.8%) · Caesars +127 (-3.4%) · BetMGM, TOM, Kalshi or FanDuel +125 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-7.4%).
Not Nasty
the Under 48.5 · -105 at TOM
Massey projects 44 and FPI projects 42. That's 5.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 48.5 at -105 (2.7%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -108 (2.0%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -110 (1.5%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (0.4%) · FanDuel 47.5 at -110 (-1.5%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Backup QB out: Zach Wilson (Saints), Out; Jack Strand (Falcons), Out; Cooper Rush (Falcons), Out. Not the starter, so no hold.

Also out: Ethan Onianwa (OT, Falcons), Martin Emerson Jr. (CB, Saints), Robert Longerbeam (CB, Falcons) and 1 more.

Atlanta Falcons has had 11 days off against 8, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onSaints by 321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelohasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
FPIhasn't seen New Orleans Saints's last game
Sagarinhasn't seen Atlanta Falcons and New Orleans Saints's last game
Massey-3.0-159
Market (17 books)-3.0-144
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.543.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAtlanta Falcons +3.0-120-102-4.0%
MoneylineAtlanta Falcons ML+125+146-3.8%
TotalUnder 48.5-105-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.9.

TOM matches the consensus.

Only 1 model could price the sides.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks4-6-2.32 units · -23% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.3 ptsbeat the close on 6 of 11 posted picks
Open2calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks4-640%-2.32 units10 games

Closing line value: +0.3 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 6 of 10. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-3 · -2.05 units
LostTexas A&M +9.5Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers6-35-1.00
WonNevada +5.0Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf Pack36-33+0.95
LostGeorgia Tech -3.0Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford Cardinal27-34-1.00
LostColorado State +13.0Colorado State Rams at UTSA Roadrunners45-59-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty4-450%-0.33 units8 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 8. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

1-2 · -1.11 units
LostMaryland +3.0UCLA Bruins at Maryland Terrapins54-3-1.00
LostNew England Patriots +2.5New England Patriots at Jacksonville Jaguars6-35-1.00
WonPittsburgh Steelers +3.5Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers27-30+0.89

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty21-2942%-10.37 units50 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 21 of 33. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 22 to 28

7-11 · -5.18 units
WonClemson -2.5Clemson Tigers at California Golden Bears24-10+0.91
LostOver 48.0Army Black Knights at Temple Owls21-17-1.00
LostOver 50.0Navy Midshipmen at UAB Blazers20-24-1.00
LostTulsa +7.0Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas Razorbacks6-34-1.00
LostOver 49.0Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ers34-7-1.00
WonOver 55.0Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati Bearcats26-31+0.89
WonJacksonville State -7.0Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State Gamecocks13-23+0.91
WonNebraska -5.5Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State Spartans31-13+0.91
WonJames Madison MLJames Madison Dukes at Old Dominion Monarchs46-20+0.40
LostPenn State -10.0Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany Lions24-20-1.00
LostSacramento State +6.0UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State Hornets35-6-1.00
LostOver 54.5Texas Longhorns at Tennessee Volunteers20-17-1.00
WonOver 59.5Oregon Ducks at USC Trojans41-27+0.85
LostTroy +3.0Troy Trojans at Utah State Aggies10-21-1.00
WonMinnesota +12.0Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington Huskies27-24+0.95
LostUnder 61.5Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineers41-24-1.00
LostHawai'i MLHawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming Cowboys10-27-1.00
LostSan Francisco 49ers -7.5Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers30-36-1.00

Sep 15 to 21

2-6 · -4.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95
LostJacksonville Jaguars +2.5Jacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos13-20-1.00

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)4-640.0%-2.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty4-450.0%-0.3 usmall sample
A Little Nasty21-2942.0%-10.4 u
Not Nasty193 games——no call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-27 21:32.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 139 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey9.97113
FPI10.57169
The market10.65230
SP+10.66169
Sagarin12.11220

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.07115
Massey1.001.500.00113
SP+1.001.000.00115
Sagarin1.000.000.07139

The line archive, 230 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 116 times, against it 81, and sat still 33. Our side taken at the open finished 0.64 points better than the close on average over 216 games. The close misses the final by 10.57, the open by 10.86, our raw ratings number by 12.40, Pinnacle's close by 10.54. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 10.04, MyBookie.ag 10.34, Pinnacle 10.54.

The Cut tracker. 5 finished games opened within a point of the Cut and 0 made it; picks that got there by none: 4-4, +0.65 units, +0.2 pts vs the close on 4; picks that got there by the Nasty Number moving: 1-1, -0.05 units, -1.0 pts vs the close on 2; picks that got there by the price: 0-1, -1.00 units, -0.0 pts vs the close on 1.

NFL

How much of our own number to use. On 29 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 0%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 90 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market10.2846
Massey10.4829
nfelo10.7046
Sagarin10.7746
FPI10.9331

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 90 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.0229
Massey1.000.000.0229
Sagarin1.001.500.0429
nfelo1.000.000.0029

The line archive, 46 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 27 times, against it 14, and sat still 5. Our side taken at the open finished 0.78 points better than the close on average over 41 games. The close misses the final by 10.28, the open by 10.39, our raw ratings number by 10.76, Pinnacle's close by 10.27. Sharpest closing books: Courtside 7.12, Polymarket 9.07, Hard Rock Bet (FL) 9.81.

The head start. 87 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 30 times, against it 22, average 0.24 points; the full board kept the side 41 times, flipped 4, went quiet 42.

What a bigger change would have done. Each recorded game day replayed with a candidate setting and scored against the finals (2026-09-17, 2026-09-18, 2026-09-19, 2026-09-20, 2026-09-21, 2026-09-22, 2026-09-23, 2026-09-23). The first row is the board as it runs; a lower miss is better. Nothing here moves a setting; the loop does that from the ledger.

SettingGamesOur missMarket'sPicks
as it runs18010.0410.571-0
ratings 0%18010.5710.571-0
ratings 5%18010.4810.571-0
ratings 15%18010.3010.571-0
ratings 45%1809.7910.571-0
Sagarin half a vote18010.0410.571-0
Sagarin no vote18010.0410.571-0
FPI a vote and a half18010.0410.571-0
Massey a vote and a half18010.0310.571-0

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 18 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.34Sides: pts vs close, 20 bets, beat it 60%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 104 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 44 of 104 moved our way, average +0.4 points, and the full board kept the side 49 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 51. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
Maryland at NebraskaNebraska -13-13-15+2.0no call
Michigan State at WisconsinMichigan State +10.210.210+0.2no call
Navy at Air ForceOver48.847.1-1.7same side
Ohio State at IowaIowa +14.414.413.5+0.9no call
Ohio at Kent StateOhio -3.5-3.5-4.5+1.0no call
Old Dominion at Georgia StateGeorgia State +2.52.50.9+1.6no call
Purdue at IllinoisIllinois Fighting -9.5-9.5-10+0.5same side
San José State at Hawai'iUnder57.551.8+5.7no call
UCF at HoustonUCF +10.510.511.2-0.7same side
UL Monroe at South AlabamaOver54.555.9+1.4no call
Washington at USCOver53.556.4+2.9no call
West Virginia at Iowa StateIowa State +22-2.7+4.7same side
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 181 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 11.7 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+12013.434-46 (42%)22-25 (47%)
Massey12312.627-34 (44%)8-20 (29%)
The blend12512.826-36 (42%)10-19 (34%)

NFL, 37 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 9.9 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey3311.09-11 (45%)4-4 (50%)
FPI3110.68-2 (80%)6-0 (100%)
The blend3310.18-4 (67%)3-1 (75%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

73 priced · 3 Nasty Picks · 14 a little nasty · 4 damn near nasty · audit clean

We read 73 games across 22 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 0 were worth a second look. 3 cleared every check.

What's changed since 12:15am

  • MovedPittsburgh Panthers at Virginia Tech Hokies price moved from -107 to -112.
  • MovedEastern Michigan Eagles at UMass Minutemen is now UMass Minutemen -5.0, was UMass Minutemen -4.5.
  • NewTemple Owls at South Florida Bulls is now a pick: South Florida Bulls -5.5 at -110.
  • MovedBaylor Bears at Arizona State Sun Devils is now Baylor Bears +3.5, was Baylor Bears +4.0.
  • MovedCincinnati Bearcats at Arizona Wildcats is now Cincinnati Bearcats +7.5, was Cincinnati Bearcats +7.0.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 4.8Toledo Rockets at Ball State Cardinalstoward Toledo Rocketswith the public
  • → 4.2Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern Wildcatstoward Northwestern Wildcatsagainst the public
  • → 3.2West Virginia Mountaineers at Iowa State Cyclonestoward Iowa State Cyclonesagainst the public
  • → 3.1Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecockstoward Kentucky Wildcatsagainst the public
  • → 2.6California Golden Bears at UNLV Rebelstoward UNLV Rebelsagainst the public
  • → 2.5Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Alabama Crimson Tidewith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
10.31Points off per game at that weight
10.31The market on its own
169Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 2%, give or take 21% (one standard error, 169 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey14310.04
The market27710.57
nfelo4710.60
FPI20110.61
SP+16910.66
Sagarin26711.85

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.5123-12649%
1.5 to 3.03-827%
3.0 to 5.05-645%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 851749 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.15 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi1611.54
DraftKings3551.44
FanDuel3911.41
BetRivers3711.30
BetOnline.ag3501.29
LowVig.ag3421.29
MyBookie.ag2701.24
ReBet1691.22
Bally Bet1631.13
betPARX1631.12
BetMGM3501.09
BetUS2791.08
Bovada3311.08
Caesars3011.07
Fanatics2951.07
TOM3001.07
Courtside911.05
Hard Rock Bet1470.97
Pinnacle3480.95
theScore Bet1650.89
BetAnything1150.86
Fliff1260.75
Hard Rock Bet (OH)430.56
Polymarket280.54
Hard Rock Bet (FL)430.51

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated yesterday
  • FPI NFL updated yesterday
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated today
  • SP+ updated today
  • Sagarin updated yesterday
  • Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
  • nfelo updated 4 days ago
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Built 8:26 AM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 3569.