Nasty

PICKS

picks with receiptsOPEN

Buck Nasty

Nasty

PICKS

OPENBuck Nasty

College football and NFL. The bets worth making this week, and the record to prove it.

Open · Updated Sun 5:14 pm · no Nasty Picks yet · TOM just now

In progress

Running now

Already kicked off. Scores update on their own.

A LITTLE NASTYJacksonville Jaguars at Denver Broncos
Jacksonville Jaguars +2.5
+105as called
Buck

Buck's Take

Nothing's nasty enough Sunday. Nasty is a standard, not a mood.

A little nasty, if you want action: 5 sneakies; the strongest is Over 52 (Navy at UAB) at 9.2% after the price. For the couch, not the mortgage. The one moving our way is Boise State at Western Michigan, Western Michigan +8.5, 2 points our way since the open.

If you're playing one, keep it a sneaky: Navy at UAB, Over 52. Bet it straight. The Receipts do the talking.

Buck

Nasty Picks

Nothing's made the Cut yet. Stale numbers switch on inside 48 hours of kickoff.

Nasty Dogs

No dog worth the price this week.

Damn Near Nasty

Nothing close. The books have this slate right, and Buck says so.

A Little Nasty

No sneakies today. The market has this slate.

Sniff of Nasty · Saturday's preview, 27 games from the systems that have rebuilt. Never a pick, never recorded. Strongest: Texas A&M +9, Charlotte +14, UConn +5. Open

Sniff of Nasty

College: FPI and Massey and Sagarin have seen the last games, SP+ hasn't. A preview, not a rung: built on the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. Nothing here is a pick and nothing here goes in the Receipts. Each game gets its real rung when every system has updated, usually Tuesday morning for college. Strongest first: the tag on each row is what the fresh systems would call it. If you like a number now, this is your head start.

Texas A&M at LSUTexas A&M +9should be Texas A&M +6.5 · getting 2.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
7.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Texas A&M): TOM +9 at -110 (7.8%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (7.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (7.5%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (7.0%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +9.5 buys under 1 more wins in 100 than +9 (the games that land on 9); 51¢ costs under 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.
Louisiana at CharlotteCharlotte +14should be Charlotte +11.5 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKingsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
5.9% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings +14 at -110 (5.9%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (5.2%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -105 (4.8%) · Fanatics +14 at -115 (4.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (3.7%).
UConn at Miami (OH)UConn +5should be UConn +2.5 · getting 2.5 ptsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
5.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (UConn): TOM +5 at -112 (5.7%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (4.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (3.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -108 (3.1%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (3.0%).
Boise State at Western MichiganMoved our way · 2 ptsWestern Michigan +8.5should be Western Michigan +7.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelNasty Pick strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
5.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (5.7%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (5.3%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (4.1%) · DraftKings or TOM +7.5 at -110 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Clemson at CaliforniaClemson +1should be Clemson -2 · getting 3 pts at BetMGMNasty Pick strengthFri 9:30pm Buck's case ›
4.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Clemson): BetMGM +1 at -108 (4.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (4.2%) · Fanatics +1 at -115 (3.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (2.9%) · Caesars or TOM PK at -110 (2.8%).Points or price: +1.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than +1 (the games that land on 1); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
Ball State at Kent StateBall State +4.5should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKingsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
4.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +4 at -110 (3.5%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).
Kansas State at CincinnatiCincinnati +7should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at FanaticsNasty Pick strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
4.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Cincinnati): Fanatics +7 at -110 (4.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (4.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.3%) · Caesars +6.5 at -102 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Air Force at NevadaNevada +4.5should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelNasty Pick strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Nevada): BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (4.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +4.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 56¢ (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +5.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +4.5 (the games that land on 5); 56¢ costs about 6 more in 100 to break even than -108. The price wins.
19 more, weaker reads
Colorado State at UTSAColorado State +12.5should be Colorado State +11 · getting 1.5 pts at FanaticsNasty Pick strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (3.8%) · Fanatics or TOM +12.5 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Oklahoma at GeorgiaOklahoma +14should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 ptNasty Pick strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
3.5% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Oklahoma): TOM +14 at -103 (3.5%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +14 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.1%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) costs about 5 more in 100 to break even than -103. The price wins.
UNLV at AkronAkron +14-105 at Fanatics · 3.3% after the price, the Cut is 4.5% for this SauceDamn Near Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
3.3% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Akron): Fanatics +14 at -105 (3.3%) · Caesars +14 at -108 (2.6%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (2.2%) · DraftKings or TOM +14 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.4%).Points or price: +14.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +14 (the games that land on 14); -118 costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins.
Florida Atlantic at UL MonroeUL Monroe +14-115 · 1.8% after the price, the Cut is 3%Damn Near Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
1.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · TOM +14 at -115 (1.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars +13.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +14 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +13.5 (the games that land on 14); -115 costs about 2 more in 100 to break even than -105. A wash; either is fine.
Arizona at Washington StateWashington State +13-110 at Fanatics · 2.2% after the price, the Cut is 3%Damn Near Nasty strengthSat 6:30pm Buck's case ›
2.2% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Washington State): DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (2.8%) · Fanatics +13 at -110 (2.2%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.2%).
Navy at UABMoved our way · 1 ptOver 52should be 56.1 · getting 4.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthFri 6:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (9.2%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (6.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (6.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (5.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -108 (4.6%).
Army at TempleMoved our way · 1.5 ptsOver 48.5should be 51.6 · getting 3.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthFri 3:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -110 (5.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.4%) · Caesars 50.5 at -104 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (0.5%).
Oklahoma State at West VirginiaMoved our way · 1 ptUnder 60.5should be 57.7 · getting 2.8 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or TOM 60.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 60 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -105 (3.2%).
Wisconsin at Penn StateMoved our way · 1.5 ptsUnder 46should be 43.1 · getting 2.9 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 4:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): TOM 46 at -115 (3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (1.0%).
Texas at TennesseeOver 56should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Over): TOM 56 at -110 (3.7%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 52¢ (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.2%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.1%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: 55.5 buys about 1 more win in 100 than 56 (the games that land on 56); 52¢ costs about 1 more in 100 to break even than -110. A wash; either is fine.
Missouri at Mississippi StateMoved our way · 2 ptsMissouri +5.5should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:45pm Buck's case ›
3.6% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Missouri): TOM +5.5 at -105 (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.Points or price: +6.5 buys about 2 more wins in 100 than +5.5 (the games that land on 6); 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) costs about 3 more in 100 to break even than -105. The price wins by a hair.
Ole Miss at FloridaOle Miss +3should be Ole Miss +2 · getting 1 ptA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
3.4% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Ole Miss): TOM +3 at +102 (3.4%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.9%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.2%).
Middle Tennessee at Jacksonville StateMiddle Tennessee +9should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at FanaticsA Little Nasty strengthSat 6:00pm Buck's case ›
3.1% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +9 at -110 (3.1%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
TCU at UCFMoved our way · 1 ptUCF +3.5should be UCF +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuelA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
1.7% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (-0.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (-0.6%).
Northern Illinois at Georgia StateUnder 55should be 53.6 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 11:00am Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 54.5 at -105 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.7%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-0.2%).
Hawai'i at WyomingUnder 45should be 43.7 · getting 1.3 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:00pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (2.1%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 45 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).
Liberty at Coastal CarolinaMoved our way · 1 ptCoastal Carolina +2should be Coastal Carolina PK · getting 2 ptsA Little Nasty strengthThu 6:30pm Buck's case ›
0.8% edge on FPI, Sagarin and Massey. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.2%) · TOM +2 at -110 (0.8%) · BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +1.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Vanderbilt at AuburnUnder 53should be 51.9 · getting 1.1 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 3:15pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 53 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.0%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-0.9%).
UCLA at MarylandUnder 57.5should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 ptsA Little Nasty strengthSat 2:30pm Buck's case ›
A total: never more than A Little Nasty. SP+ hasn't spoken.Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Fanatics 58.5 at -105 (4.7%) · Caesars 58.5 at -106 (4.5%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.4%) · TOM or Kalshi 57.5 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.

Moved closer since the 1:56pm build

Not picks. The games whose next rung got nearer since the 1:56pm build, biggest move first, and what moved them. Games that sat flat or walked away aren't listed. A game that gets there posts on the next build, never in between.

  • Virginia Tech at Boston College Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Boston College +15.0: 0.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -14.0 to +14.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • Tulsa at Arkansas Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Tulsa +8.5: 1.0 points away, was 2.5.The line went from -7.0 to +7.5; the price from -112 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • Texas at Tennessee Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am · Sniff of Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Texas -3.0: 1.5 points away, was 2.0.The line went from -5.0 to -4.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • Colorado at Baylor Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at Colorado +10.5: 1.0 points away, was 1.5.The line went from -8.5 to +9.5; the price from -110 to -105. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • New Mexico at New Mexico State Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at New Mexico State +14.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +13.5 to +14.0; the price from +100 to -110. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • Oklahoma State at West Virginia Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Sniff of Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at West Virginia -1.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.5 to -1.5; the price from -103 to -110. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • South Carolina at Alabama Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at South Carolina +13.0: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +12.0 to +12.5. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.
  • Oregon at USC Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm · Not Nasty now
    A Little Nasty at USC +3.5: 0.5 points away, was 1.0.The line went from +2.5 to +3.0; the price from -101 to -108. Measured on the fresh systems; the rebuild has the last word.

And 3 more that moved.

Under the hood ratings freshness, the legend, the track record
College ratingsSP+Mon 3:19pmFPISun 8:30amSagarinSun 10:17amMasseySun 12:04amAll 4 in the Sauce. 142 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
NFL ratingsnfeloTue 6:05pmFPISun 6:02amSagarinTue 9:06amMasseyFri 8:05amAll 4 in the Sauce. 16 teams that played since a rebuild are held until it.
Track record: 24 of 30 graded disagreements with the market. The stat shows at 30.
Nasty Pick cleared every check, bet itNasty Dog underdog to win, taken for the priceDamn Near Nasty ratings agree, needs a better number or the rebuildA Little Nasty sneakies: our side, small money, no receipt. If you want action, start hereSniff of Nasty a preview from the systems that have rebuilt; never a pick, never recordedNot Nasty the market has it right

Today

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City ChiefsColts at Chiefs
NFL 7:20pm
Chiefs -5.5
should be Chiefs -6.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Chiefs by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Chiefs by 6.5. 1.1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Colts than the bookmore Chiefs →
Market
Chiefs by 5.5TOM, -105
The Four
nfelo
Chiefs by 7.51.8 pts our side
FPI
Chiefs by 82.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Chiefs by 82.3 pts our side
Massey
Chiefs by 6.50.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Chiefs by 6.51.1 pts off the market
All 4 systems lean Chiefs. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Chiefs by 6.5opened Chiefs by 6.5now Chiefs by 5.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Chiefs's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM
The Four
Massey
48.12.1 pts over the market
FPI
43.12.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.60.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.6opened 47.5now 46MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 46. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-5.5 -10546 -110-285+225
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢46.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Pinnacle-6 +10446 -105-273+237
All 25 books
Chiefs spreadTotal (over)Chiefs MLColts ML
TOM-5.5 -10546 -110-285+225
Kalshi-5.5 -112 51¢46.5 -103 49¢-276 72¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-6 -11446 -112-315+240
BetAnything-6 -10546 -110-285+235
BetMGM46 -108-275+225
BetOnline.ag-6 -10546 -110-285+234
betPARX-6 -11446 -112-315+240
BetRivers-6 -11446 -112-315+240
BetUS-6 -10546 -110-285+238
Bovada-5.5 -11046 +105-285+235
Caesars-6 -10745.5 -118-275+225
Courtside58.5 -563-258+220
DraftKings-6 -10846.5 -102-265+215
DraftKings Predictions-5.5 52¢ -117 all-in45.5 52¢ -117 all-in72¢ -284 all-in30¢ +212 all-in
Fanatics-6 -10546 -110-280+225
FanDuel-6.5 -10245.5 -115-290+235
Fliff-5.5 -12046.5 -110-325+235
Hard Rock Bet-6 -11046 -110-300+240
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-6 -11046 -110-300+240
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-6 -11046 -110-300+240
LowVig.ag-6 +10046 -107-285+234
MyBookie.ag-6 -11046 -110-275+228
Pinnacle-6 +10446 -105-273+237
Polymarket-4.5 -11345.5-257+245
ReBet-6 -11046 -110-275+228

Marked: best for Chiefs, higher payout on each moneyline.

Chiefs -5.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Chiefs): TOM -5.5 at -105 (0.0%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%) · Fanatics -6 at -105 (-2.0%) · Caesars -6 at -107 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions -5.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-2.7%).
Not Nasty
Chiefs to win · -265 at DraftKings
We make it 69 in 100 to win. The price says 73. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 69 cents fair, a play under 65. Where, best first (Chiefs to win): DraftKings -265 (-3.5%) · Caesars, BetMGM or Kalshi -275 (-4.2%) · Fanatics -280 (-4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or TOM -284 (72¢ on the app) (-4.8%) · FanDuel -290 (-5.2%).
Not Nasty
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 48 and FPI projects 43. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Kalshi 46.5 at 52¢ (-1.7%) · Caesars 45.5 at -103 (-1.8%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 46 at -110 (-1.9%) · DraftKings 46.5 at -118 (-2.2%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -105 (-2.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 73°F.

Across the books: opened -7.0, now -6.0. The market has moved 0.8 away from Chiefs, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 45.5, only $25 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jimmy Holiday (WR, Chiefs), Ashton Dulin (WR, Colts), D.J. Montgomery (WR, Colts) and 3 more.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onChiefs by 6.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-7.5-243
FPI-8.0-275
Sagarin-8.0-260
Massey-6.5-216
Market (21 books)-5.5-273
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.045.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKansas City Chiefs -5.5-105-105+0.0%
MoneylineKansas City Chiefs ML-265-224-3.5%
TotalUnder 46.0-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward Indianapolis Colts since 09-17 13:25; total has moved down 0.7.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -6.0 consensus.

Tomorrow

1 gameBuck's sitting this one out.
GameThe call
New York Giants at Los Angeles RamsGiants at Rams
NFL tomorrow 7:15pm
Rams -6.5
should be Rams -7 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Rams by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Rams by 7. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Giants than the bookmore Rams →
Market
Rams by 6.5TOM, -117
The Four
nfelo
Rams by 8.5
FPI
Rams by 5
Sagarin
Rams by 8.5
Massey
Rams by 7.5
Nasty Number
Rams by 70.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Rams by 7opened Rams by 7now Rams by 6.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Rams by 7 to Rams by 6.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5TOM
The Four
Massey
47.20.3 pts under the market
FPI
46.21.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.70.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.7opened 48.5now 47.5MonTueWedThuFriSatSun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 48.5 to 47.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-6.5 -11747.5 -110-315+240
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢47.5-306 74¢+252 27¢
Pinnacle-7 +10048.5 +106-310+266
All 25 books
Rams spreadTotal (over)Rams MLGiants ML
TOM-6.5 -11747.5 -110-315+240
Kalshi-6.5 -126 54¢47.5-306 74¢+252 27¢
Bally Bet-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetAnything-6.5 -12047.5 -110-325+255
BetMGM-7 -10247.5 -108-300+250
BetOnline.ag-6.5 -11747.5 -110-315+256
betPARX-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetRivers-7 -11248 -113-335+260
BetUS-7 +10047.5 -110-305+253
Bovada-7 -10547.5 -115-310+255
Caesars-6.5 -11847.5 -110-320+250
Courtside71.5 -5460-278+236
DraftKings-6.5 -11547.5 -110-285+230
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 54¢ -127 all-in48.5 48¢ -100 all-in74¢ -317 all-in28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics-7 -10547.5 -110-320+250
FanDuel-6.5 -12047.5 -105-310+250
Fliff-6.5 -12547.5 -115-355+250
Hard Rock Bet-7 -11047.5 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (FL)-7 -11047.5 -110-325+250
Hard Rock Bet (OH)-7 -11047.5 -110-325+250
LowVig.ag-6.5 -11447.5 -107-315+256
MyBookie.ag-7 +10047.5 -110-319+246
Pinnacle-7 +10048.5 +106-310+266
Polymarket-6.5 -11747.5-285+270
ReBet-6.5 -12547.5 -110-310+255

Marked: best for the Rams side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Rams -6.5 · -117 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 54 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Rams): BetMGM -7 at -102 (-4.5%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -115 (-4.6%) · TOM -6.5 at -117 (-5.1%) · Fanatics -7 at -105 (-5.2%) · Caesars -6.5 at -118 (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Rams to win · -285 at DraftKings
We make it 71 in 100 to win. The price says 74. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 71 cents fair, a play under 66. Where, best first (Rams to win): DraftKings -285 (-3.5%) · BetMGM -300 (-4.4%) · Kalshi 74¢ (-4.8%) · FanDuel -310 (-5.0%) · TOM or DraftKings Predictions -315 (74¢ on the app) (-5.3%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.5 · -110 at TOM
Massey projects 47 and FPI projects 46. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-1.0%) · DraftKings, Caesars, Fanatics or TOM 47.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-2.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Kalshi thin: Over 47.5, only $8 available; Over 47.5, only $366 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Also out: Jordan Whittington (WR, Rams), Paulson Adebo (CB, Giants), Korie Black (CB, Giants) and 4 more.

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus.

TOM: total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Los Angeles Rams has had 10 days off against 7, worth about 0.2 points.

Full detail
We settle onRams by 721% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
nfelo-8.5-278
FPI-5.0-181
Sagarin-8.5-282
Massey-7.5-250
Market (21 books)-6.5-301
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.546.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLos Angeles Rams -6.5-117+105-5.1%
MoneylineLos Angeles Rams ML-285-240-3.5%
TotalOver 47.5-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -6.5 here against -6.9 consensus; total 47.5 here against 48.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Thu Sep 24

1 gameBest: Sniff of Nasty · Coastal Carolina, Liberty at Coastal Carolina
GameThe call
Liberty Flames at Coastal Carolina ChanticleersLiberty at Coastal Carolina
CFB Thu 24 Sep, 6:30pm
Coastal Carolina +2Moved our way · 1 pt
should be Coastal Carolina PK · getting 2 pts at TOM · was -1.5
Sniff of Nasty · Coastal CarolinaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Coastal Carolina. Market says Liberty by 2, the Nasty Number says a pick'em. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Liberty than the bookmore Coastal Carolina →
Market
Liberty by 2TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI
Liberty by 1.50.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Coastal Carolina by 2.54.4 pts our side
Massey
Coastal Carolina by 3.55.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
a pick'em1.8 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Coastal Carolina. The Nasty Number is 1.8 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number a pick'emopened Liberty by 1now Liberty by 2Sun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in Coastal Carolina's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
58.76.7 pts over the market
Massey
52.30.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
55.53.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.5opened 52now 52Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLLiberty ML
TOM+2 -11052 -110
Kalshi+2.552.5 -112 51¢-126 54¢
BetOnline.ag+1 -10352 -110
All 16 books
Coastal Carolina spreadTotal (over)Coastal Carolina MLLiberty ML
TOM+2 -11052 -110
Kalshi+2.552.5 -112 51¢-126 54¢
Bally Bet-1.5 -11253.5 -108-125+102
BetMGM+1.5 -10852.5 -105+100-120
BetOnline.ag+1 -10352 -110
betPARX-1.5 -10853.5 -110-121+100
BetRivers-1.5 -10953.5 -112-122+100
Caesars+1.5 -11052.5 -108+105-125
Courtside+1.5 -10852.5 -103+102-118
DraftKings+1.5 -11052.5 -105+100-120
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 51¢ -113 all-in52.5 51¢ -113 all-in46¢ +108 all-in54¢ -127 all-in
Fanatics+1.5 -11052 -115-105-115
FanDuel+1.5 -11052.5 -110+100-120
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -12052.5 -110-105-115
LowVig.ag+1 +10152 -108
ReBet-0.5 -10952.5 -114-111-119

Marked: best for Coastal Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

Coastal Carolina +2.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina): DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.2%) · TOM +2 at -110 (0.8%) · BetMGM +1.5 at -108 (0.1%) · FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars +1.5 at -110 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Coastal Carolina to win · 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 50 in 100 to win. The price says 48. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 50 cents fair, a play under 45. Where, best first (Coastal Carolina to win): DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (1.4%) · Caesars +105 (0.7%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or BetMGM +100 (-0.5%) · Fanatics -105 (-1.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 59 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 52.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Caesars 52.5 at -108 (1.3%) · Fanatics 52 at -115 (1.1%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Coastal Carolina +2.0 · -110 at TOM. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 76°F, 24% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now +0.5. The market has moved 1.9 away from Coastal Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Coastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.5, only $85 available; Under 52.5, only $50 available; Coastal Carolina Chanticleers ML, only $44 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +0.6 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle ona pick'em40% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Liberty and Coastal Carolina's last game
FPI+1.5+118
Sagarin-2.5-128
Massey-3.5-145
Market (13 books)+2.0+103
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.055.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineCoastal Carolina Chanticleers ML+108+102+1.4%
SpreadCoastal Carolina Chanticleers +2.0-110-114+0.8%
TotalOver 52.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Liberty Flames since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread +2.0 here against +0.6 consensus; total 52.0 here against 52.6 consensus.

Fri Sep 25

4 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Clemson, Clemson at California
GameThe call
Clemson Tigers at California Golden BearsClemson at California
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 9:30pm
Clemson +1
should be Clemson -2 · getting 3 pts at BetMGM · was -1.5
Sniff of Nasty · ClemsonBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Clemson. Market says a pick'em, the Nasty Number says Clemson by 2. At -108 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Clemson than the bookmore California →
Market
a pick'emTOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI
Clemson by 5.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
a pick'emon the market
Massey
Clemson by 65.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
Clemson by 22.1 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Clemson. The Nasty Number is 2.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.82.7 pts under the market
Massey
50.4on the market
Nasty Number
49.11.4 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.4 points of the book.
California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
TOMPK -11050.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5-112 51¢
BetOnline.agPK -11050.5 -110
All 16 books
California spreadTotal (over)California MLClemson ML
TOMPK -11050.5 -110
Kalshi-1.5-112 51¢
Bally Bet+1.5 -11348.5 -112+100-121
BetMGM-1 -11050.5 -105-112-105
BetOnline.agPK -11050.5 -110
betPARX+1.5 -11348.5 -112+100-121
BetRivers+1.5 -11448.5 -113+100-122
CaesarsPK -11050 -110-110-110
Courtside-1.5 -10350.5 -108-108-108
DraftKings-1.5 -10550.5 -110-110-110
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 51¢ -113 all-in50.5 51¢ -113 all-in50¢ -108 all-in51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics-1 -10550 -110-110-110
FanDuel-1.5 -10549.5 -110-114-105
Hard Rock Bet49.5 -110-110-110
LowVig.agPK -10650.5 -108
ReBet-0.5 -11449.5 -114-114-116

Marked: best for Clemson, higher payout on each moneyline.

Clemson +1.0 · -108 at BetMGM
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Clemson): BetMGM +1 at -108 (4.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (4.2%) · Fanatics +1 at -115 (3.1%) · Kalshi +1.5 at 53¢ (2.9%) · Caesars or TOM PK at -110 (2.8%).
A Little Nasty
Clemson to win · -105 at FanDuel
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 51. That's value. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 50. Where, best first (Clemson to win): FanDuel or BetMGM -105 (4.0%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars -110 (2.8%) · Kalshi 51¢ (2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.2%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or TOM 50.5 at -110 (0.1%) · BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions 50.5 at -112 (51¢ on the app) (-0.3%) · Fanatics or Caesars 50 at -110 (-1.1%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Clemson +1.0 · -108 at BetMGM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now PK. The market has moved 1.5 away from Clemson, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: California Golden Bears -1.5, only $144 available; Over 50.5, only $12 available; Under 50.5, only $61 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onClemson by 240% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Clemson and California's last game
FPI+5.5+173
SagarinPK+102
Massey+6.0+181
Market (13 books)PK+102
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.549.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadClemson Tigers +1.0-108-130+4.7%
MoneylineClemson Tigers ML-105-123+4.0%
TotalUnder 50.5-110-111shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward California Golden Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Army Black Knights at Temple OwlsArmy at Temple
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 3:00pm
Over 48.5Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 51.6 · getting 3.1 pts · was 50.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 48.5. SP+ and Massey say over by 6.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Temple too: market says Army by 3, the Nasty Number says Army by 2, but at -105 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Army than the bookmore Temple →
Market
Army by 3TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI
Temple by 0.53.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Temple by 0.53.5 pts our side
Massey
Army by 5.52.7 pts against us
Nasty Number
Army by 20.9 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Temple. Massey at Army by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Army by 2opened Army by 3now Army by 3Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
58.39.8 pts over the market
Massey
50.72.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
54.56 pts over the market
Over 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 6 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.5opened 50now 48.5Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Temple spreadTotal (over)Temple MLArmy ML
TOM+3 -11048.5 -110
Kalshi+3.5 -126 54¢+134 41¢-167 61¢
BetOnline.ag+3 -10550 -110
All 16 books
Temple spreadTotal (over)Temple MLArmy ML
TOM+3 -11048.5 -110
Kalshi+3.5 -126 54¢+134 41¢-167 61¢
Bally Bet+3 -10950.5 -113+128-157
BetMGM+3 -10550.5 -108+130-160
BetOnline.ag+3 -10550 -110
betPARX+3 -10950.5 -113+128-157
BetRivers+3 -11050.5 -114+128-159
Caesars+3 -10850.5 -104+133-157
Courtside+3 -10350.5 -106+133-152
DraftKings+3 -10550.5 -108+130-155
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 54¢ -127 all-in49.5 50¢ -108 all-in41¢ +133 all-in60¢ -163 all-in
Fanatics+3 -10550.5 -110+130-155
FanDuel+3.5 -12050.5 -110+132-160
Hard Rock Bet+2.5 +10550.5 -110+135-160
LowVig.ag+3 -10150 -108
ReBet+3.5 -13350.5 -111+126-168

Marked: best for Temple, higher payout on each moneyline.

Temple +3.0 · -105 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Temple): DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +3 at -105 (2.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -120 (2.1%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (1.4%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 54¢ (0.9%) · TOM +3 at -110 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Temple to win · +130 at DraftKings
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Temple to win): Kalshi 41¢ (2.2%) · Caesars, DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +133 (41¢ on the app) (1.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM +130 (1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 51. That's 6.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 48.5 at -110 (5.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (3.4%) · Caesars 50.5 at -104 (1.9%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 50.5 at -108 (1.0%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 50.5 at -110 (0.5%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 65°F, 21% chance of rain.

Kalshi thin: Over 52.5, only $10 available; Under 52.5, only $243 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArmy by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Temple's last game
FPI-0.5-103
Sagarin-0.5-105
Massey+5.5+179
Market (13 books)+3.0+145
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.554.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTemple Owls +3.0-105-114+2.1%
MoneylineTemple Owls ML+130+123+1.4%
TotalOver 48.5-110-137shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 48.5 here against 50.4 consensus.

Navy Midshipmen at UAB BlazersNavy at UAB
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 6:00pm
Over 52Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 56.1 · getting 4.1 pts · was 54.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 52.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 8.5 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Navy by 8, the Nasty Number says Navy by 9. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Navy than the bookmore UAB →
Market
Navy by 8TOM, -118
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI
Navy by 7.5
Sagarin
Navy by 4.5
Massey
Navy by 8.5
Nasty Number
Navy by 91.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Navy by 9opened Navy by 10.5now Navy by 8Sun

The spread has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from Navy by 10.5 to Navy by 8. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52TOM, Over -105
The Four
SP+ pace
61.39.3 pts over the market
Massey
59.87.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
60.58.5 pts over the market
Over 52 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 60.5opened 53now 52Sun

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLNavy ML
TOM+8 -11852 -105
Kalshi+7.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢
BetOnline.ag+10 -11553 -115
All 15 books
UAB spreadTotal (over)UAB MLNavy ML
TOM+8 -11852 -105
Kalshi+7.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢
Bally Bet+10.5 -11052.5 -109+335-455
BetOnline.ag+10 -11553 -115
betPARX+10.5 -11052.5 -109+335-455
BetRivers+10.5 -11252.5 -110+335-455
Caesars+10 -10853.5 -108+340-440
Courtside+10 -11053.5 -110+329-397
DraftKings+10 -11253.5 -112+320-410
DraftKings Predictions+7.5 51¢ -113 all-in52.5 51¢ -113 all-in24¢ +285 all-in76¢ -355 all-in
Fanatics+10 -11053.5 -110+325-425
FanDuel+10.5 -11552.5 -110+320-420
Hard Rock Bet+10.5 -11553.5 -110+300-400
LowVig.ag+10 -11153 -114
ReBet+10.5 -11953.5 -111+290-429

Marked: best for the UAB side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Navy -8.0 · -102 at TOM
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Navy): TOM -8 at -102 (-3.0%) · DraftKings Predictions -7.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.4%) · Kalshi -7.5 at 52¢ (-5.1%) · DraftKings -10 at -108 (-8.1%) · Fanatics -10 at -110 (-8.6%).
Not Nasty
Navy to win · 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 72 in 100 to win. The price says 78. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 72 cents fair, a play under 67. Where, best first (Navy to win): DraftKings Predictions 76¢ on the app (-355 all-in) (-6.2%) · DraftKings -410 (-8.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -420 (-9.0%) · Caesars -440 (-9.7%).
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 60. That's 8.5 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52 at -105 (9.2%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -110 (6.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (6.0%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (5.3%) · Caesars 53.5 at -108 (4.6%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 52.0 · -105 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened +12.0, now +10.0 (the market moved 1.9 toward UAB).

Kalshi thin: UAB Blazers ML, only $468 available; Navy Midshipmen ML, only $149 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +10.2 consensus.

TOM: total 52.0 here against 53.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNavy by 940% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UAB's last game
FPI+7.5+212
Sagarin+4.5+159
Massey+8.5+244
Market (12 books)+8.0+386
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.060.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNavy Midshipmen -8.0-102+110-3.0%
MoneylineNavy Midshipmen ML-355-255-6.2%
TotalOver 52.0-105-153shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward UAB Blazers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.4.

TOM: spread +8.0 here against +10.2 consensus; total 52.0 here against 53.1 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Northwestern Wildcats at Indiana HoosiersNorthwestern at Indiana
CFB Fri 25 Sep, 7:00pm
Northwestern +22.5
should be Northwestern +21 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Indiana by 22.5.

The spread

← more Northwestern than the bookmore Indiana →
Market
Indiana by 22.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI
Indiana by 17.5
Sagarin
Indiana by 18.5
Nasty Number
Indiana by 211.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Indiana by 21opened Indiana by 22.5now Indiana by 22.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.44.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
45.44.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 45.4opened 47.5now 49.5Sun

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 47.5 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
TOM-22.5 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi49.5 -112 51¢-1684 94¢+1242
BetOnline.ag-22.5 -11549 -110
All 14 books
Indiana spreadTotal (over)Indiana MLNorthwestern ML
TOM-22.5 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi49.5 -112 51¢-1684 94¢+1242
Bally Bet-23.5 -10848 -107+1400
BetOnline.ag-22.5 -11549 -110
betPARX-23.5 -10848 -107+1400
BetRivers-23.5 -10948 -108+1400
Caesars-22.5 -11448.5 -107
Courtside-22.5 -11348.5 -108-2433+1405
DraftKings-22.5 -11548.5 -115-2800+1300
DraftKings Predictions-21.5 54¢ -127 all-in49.5 51¢ -113 all-in94¢ -2401 all-in+1011 all-in
Fanatics-23.5 -11048 -110-3000+1500
FanDuel-22.5 -11049.5 -110-3000+1200
LowVig.ag-22.5 -11149 -108
ReBet-23.5 -11947.5 -119-3030+870

Marked: best for the Indiana side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northwestern +23.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Northwestern): Fanatics +23.5 at -110 (2.7%) · DraftKings +22.5 at -105 (2.1%) · Caesars +22.5 at -106 (1.9%) · FanDuel or TOM +22.5 at -110 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +21.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.3%).
Blowout line
Northwestern to win · +1364
We make it 9 in 100 to win, the price says 7, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northwestern to win): Fanatics +1500 (2.8%) · DraftKings +1300 (1.9%) · Kalshi 7¢ (1.6%) · FanDuel +1200 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 7¢ on the app (+1011 all-in) (0.1%).
Off the band
the Under 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or TOM 49.5 at -110 (3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.7%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 52¢ (2.0%) · DraftKings 48.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Caesars 48.5 at -113 (0.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -23.5, now -23.0 (the market moved 0.5 toward Northwestern).

TOM: spread -22.5 here against -23.0 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onIndiana by 2140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northwestern and Indiana's last game
FPI-17.5-668
Sagarin-18.5-762
Masseyrates Northwestern and Indiana on different scales
Market (11 books)-22.5-2686
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.545.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthwestern Wildcats +23.5-110-123+2.7%
MoneylineNorthwestern Wildcats ML+1364+1004priced at 7 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 49.5-110-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.5 toward Northwestern Wildcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread -22.5 here against -23.0 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

The line is -22.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Sat Sep 26

53 gamesBest: Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&M, Texas A&M at LSU
GameThe call
Texas A&M Aggies at LSU TigersTexas A&M at LSU
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Texas A&M +9
should be Texas A&M +6.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5
Sniff of Nasty · Texas A&MBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Texas A&M. Market says LSU by 9, the Nasty Number says LSU by 6.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Texas A&M than the bookmore LSU →
Market
LSU by 9TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI
LSU by 4.54.5 pts our side
Sagarin
LSU by 5.53.4 pts our side
Massey
Texas A&M by 19.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
LSU by 6.52.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Texas A&M. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number LSU by 6.5opened LSU by 8.5now LSU by 9Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Texas A&M's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.16.4 pts under the market
Massey
52.70.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.93.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.9opened 53.5now 53.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-9 -11053.5 -110
Kalshi-9.553.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -10553.5 -110
All 17 books
LSU spreadTotal (over)LSU MLTexas A&M ML
TOM-9 -11053.5 -110
Kalshi-9.553.5 -103 49¢-340 76¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -11353.5 -109-335+255
BetMGM-8 -11053.5 -108-350+275
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -10553.5 -110
betPARX-7.5 -11353.5 -109-335+255
BetRivers-7.5 -11453.5 -110-335+255
Caesars-8.5 -10553.5 -109
Courtside-8.5 -10353.5 -108-383+319
DraftKings-8.5 -10553.5 -110-395+310
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 51¢ -113 all-in76¢ -355 all-in26¢ +257 all-in
Fanatics-8 -11053.5 -110-340+270
FanDuel-7.5 -11553.5 -106-315+250
Fliff-8.5 -11053.5 -115-360+270
Hard Rock Bet-8.5 -11053.5 -110-325+240
LowVig.ag-8.5 -10153.5 -108
ReBet-8.5 -11153.5 -111-350+244

Marked: best for Texas A&M, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas A&M +9.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 60 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Texas A&M): TOM +9 at -110 (7.8%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (7.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (7.5%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (7.0%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (6.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Texas A&M to win · +310 at DraftKings
We make it 34 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Texas A&M to win): DraftKings +310 (9.3%) · BetMGM +275 (7.0%) · Fanatics +270 (6.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 26¢ on the app (+257 all-in) (5.7%) · FanDuel +250 (5.1%).
Off the band
the Under 53.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or TOM 53.5 at -110 (1.2%) · Caesars 53.5 at -112 (0.8%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -114 (0.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (-0.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Texas A&M +9.0 · -110 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 87°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 2.6 away from Texas A&M, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: LSU Tigers -9.5, only $47 available; Texas A&M Aggies ML, only $24 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLSU by 6.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas A&M and LSU's last game
FPI-4.5-157
Sagarin-5.5-176
Massey+1.0+109
Market (14 books)-9.0-313
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.549.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies +9.0-110-151+7.8%
MoneylineTexas A&M Aggies ML+310+197priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 53.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.6 toward LSU Tigers since 09-18 18:34; total has moved down 1.0.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -8.1 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Louisiana Ragin Cajuns at Charlotte 49ersLouisiana at Charlotte
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Charlotte +14
should be Charlotte +11.5 · getting 2.5 pts at DraftKings · was +13.5
Sniff of Nasty · CharlotteBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Charlotte. Market says Louisiana by 12, the Nasty Number says Louisiana by 11.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Over 50.5 as well.

The spread

← more Louisiana than the bookmore Charlotte →
Market
Louisiana by 12TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI
Louisiana by 7.54.7 pts our side
Sagarin
Louisiana by 7.54.5 pts our side
Massey
Louisiana by 9.52.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Louisiana by 11.50.6 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Charlotte. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisiana by 11.5opened Louisiana by 14.5now Louisiana by 14Sun

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Charlotte is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
60.910.4 pts over the market
Massey
58.37.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
59.69.1 pts over the market
Over 50.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 9.1 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 59.6opened 51.5now 50.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For the Over, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+12 -11550.5 -110
Kalshi+11.5 -116 52¢50.5 -116 52¢+426 18¢-564 84¢
BetOnline.ag+14 -11551.5 -110
All 16 books
Charlotte spreadTotal (over)Charlotte MLLouisiana ML
TOM+12 -11550.5 -110
Kalshi+11.5 -116 52¢50.5 -116 52¢+426 18¢-564 84¢
Bally Bet+14.5 -10952.5 -110+450-670
BetMGM+13.5 -10551.5 -110+450-600
BetOnline.ag+14 -11551.5 -110
betPARX+14.5 -10952.5 -110+450-670
BetRivers+14.5 -11052.5 -112+440-670
Caesars+14 -11351.5 -112
Courtside+14 -10851.5 -116+439-553
DraftKings+14 -11051.5 -118+425-575
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 56¢ -138 all-in50.5 52¢ -117 all-in18¢ +400 all-in84¢ -614 all-in
Fanatics+14 -11552 -105+440-600
FanDuel+13.5 -11051.5 -110+460-650
Hard Rock Bet+14.5 -11551.5 -115+450-650
LowVig.ag+14 -11151.5 -108
ReBet+14.5 -11951.5 -119+410-699

Marked: best for Charlotte, higher payout on each moneyline.

Charlotte +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Charlotte): DraftKings +14 at -110 (5.9%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (5.2%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -105 (4.8%) · Fanatics +14 at -115 (4.8%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -110 (3.7%).
A Little Nasty
Charlotte to win · +450 at BetMGM
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Charlotte to win): FanDuel +460 (5.5%) · BetMGM +450 (5.2%) · Fanatics +440 (4.9%) · Kalshi or DraftKings +426 (4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) (3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 50.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 58. That's 9.1 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50.5 at -110 (8.6%) · Kalshi 50.5 at 52¢ (7.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 50.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (7.1%) · Fanatics 52 at -105 (6.3%) · FanDuel or BetMGM 51.5 at -110 (6.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Charlotte +14.0 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +13.5, now +14.0. The market has moved 0.6 away from Charlotte, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 14 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +12.0 here against +14.1 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisiana by 11.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Louisiana and Charlotte's last game
FPI+7.5+210
Sagarin+7.5+217
Massey+9.5+260
Market (13 books)+12.0+560
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.559.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCharlotte 49ers +14.0-110-140+5.9%
MoneylineCharlotte 49ers ML+450+328priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.5-110-157shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Louisiana Ragin Cajuns since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread +12.0 here against +14.1 consensus; total 50.5 here against 51.8 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

UConn Huskies at Miami (OH) RedHawksUConn at Miami (OH)
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
UConn +5
should be UConn +2.5 · getting 2.5 pts at TOM · was +5.5
Sniff of Nasty · UConnBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UConn. Market says Miami (OH) by 5, the Nasty Number says Miami (OH) by 2.5. At -112 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UConn than the bookmore Miami (OH) →
Market
Miami (OH) by 5TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI
UConn by 0.55.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Miami (OH) by 31.8 pts our side
Massey
Miami (OH) by 0.54.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Miami (OH) by 2.52.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean UConn. The Nasty Number is 2.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Miami (OH) by 2.5opened Miami (OH) by 5now Miami (OH) by 5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.25.3 pts under the market
Massey
53.73.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
49.41.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.4opened 50.5now 50.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLUConn ML
TOM-5 -10850.5 -115
Kalshi-175 62¢+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag-5 -10550.5 -105
All 15 books
Miami (OH) spreadTotal (over)Miami (OH) MLUConn ML
TOM-5 -10850.5 -115
Kalshi-175 62¢+152 38¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -11249 -110-175+143
BetMGM-4 -10849.5 -108-175+140
BetOnline.ag-5 -10550.5 -105
betPARX-3.5 -11249 -110-175+143
BetRivers-3.5 -11249 -112-177+143
Caesars-3.5 -11251 -110-164+138
Courtside-3.5 -10649.5 -108-159+139
DraftKings-3.5 -10849.5 -110-162+136
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 61¢ -170 all-in50.5 52¢ -117 all-in62¢ -178 all-in38¢ +150 all-in
Fanatics-4 -10549.5 -110-175+145
FanDuel-3.5 -11549.5 -105-176+146
LowVig.ag-5 -10150.5 -103
ReBet-3.5 -11449.5 -109-197+146

Marked: best for UConn, higher payout on each moneyline.

UConn +5.0 · -112 at TOM
Covers 59 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (UConn): TOM +5 at -112 (5.7%) · BetMGM +4 at -110 (4.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (3.8%) · Caesars +3.5 at -108 (3.1%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (3.0%).
A Little Nasty
UConn to win · +152 (38¢) at Kalshi
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. That's value. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: UConn loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (UConn to win): Kalshi 38¢ (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 38¢ on the app (+150 all-in) (3.2%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +146 (2.6%) · BetMGM +140 (1.6%) · Caesars +138 (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 50.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 51 at -110 (1.2%) · TOM 50.5 at -105 (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 50.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-0.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM 49.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (-3.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UConn +5.0 · -112 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened -5.5, now -4.0. The market has moved 1.7 toward UConn, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Miami (OH) RedHawks -3.5, only $14 available; UConn Huskies +3.5, only $2 available; Over 50.5, only $34 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus.

TOM: total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMiami (OH) by 2.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UConn and Miami (OH)'s last game
FPI+0.5+104
Sagarin-3.0-138
Massey-0.5-104
Market (12 books)-5.0-158
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.549.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUConn Huskies +5.0-112-141+5.7%
MoneylineUConn Huskies ML+152+131+3.6%
TotalUnder 50.5-105-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward UConn Huskies since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.2.

TOM: spread -5.0 here against -3.8 consensus; total 50.5 here against 49.7 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Kansas State Wildcats at Cincinnati BearcatsKansas State at Cincinnati
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Cincinnati +7
should be Cincinnati +6 · getting 1 pt at Fanatics · was +7
Sniff of Nasty · CincinnatiBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Cincinnati. Market says Kansas State by 6.5, the Nasty Number says Kansas State by 6. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Kansas State than the bookmore Cincinnati →
Market
Kansas State by 6.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI
Kansas State by 33.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Kansas State by 15.7 pts our side
Massey
Kansas State by 4.52 pts our side
Nasty Number
Kansas State by 60.6 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Cincinnati. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kansas State by 6opened Kansas State by 7now Kansas State by 7Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.83.8 pts over the market
Massey
56.32.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
57.13.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 57.1opened 53now 54Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11054 -110
BetOnline.ag+6.5 +10553 -110
All 15 books
Cincinnati spreadTotal (over)Cincinnati MLKansas State ML
TOM+6.5 -11054 -110
Bally Bet+7 -11453.5 -113+210-265
BetMGM+7 -11253.5 -108+200-250
BetOnline.ag+6.5 +10553 -110
betPARX+7 -11453.5 -113+210-265
BetRivers+7 -11453.5 -114+210-265
Caesars+6.5 -10252.5 -117+200-245
Courtside+6.5 -10852.5 -108+194-225
DraftKings+6.5 -11052.5 -110+190-230
DraftKings Predictions+6.5 50¢ -108 all-in53.5 51¢ -113 all-in31¢ +203 all-in69¢ -245 all-in
Fanatics+7 -11053 -110+210-260
FanDuel+6.5 +10053.5 -110+215-265
Hard Rock Bet+6.5 +10053.5 -110+210-275
LowVig.ag+6.5 +10953 -108
ReBet+6.5 -10353.5 -111+208-290

Marked: best for Cincinnati, higher payout on each moneyline.

Cincinnati +7.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Cincinnati): Fanatics +7 at -110 (4.4%) · BetMGM +7 at -112 (4.0%) · FanDuel +6.5 at +100 (3.3%) · Caesars +6.5 at -102 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Cincinnati to win · +210 at Fanatics
We make it 35 in 100 to win. The price says 32. That's value. On Kalshi that's 35 cents fair, a play under 31. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Cincinnati loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Cincinnati to win): FanDuel +215 (3.6%) · Fanatics +210 (3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 31¢ on the app (+203 all-in) (2.4%) · Caesars or BetMGM +200 (2.0%) · DraftKings +190 (0.8%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 54.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 54 at -110 (-2.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.2%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-3.6%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -112 (-4.0%) · Caesars 52.5 at -104 (-4.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Cincinnati +7.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 66°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +6.5. The market has moved 0.6 toward Cincinnati, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKansas State by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kansas State and Cincinnati's last game
FPI+3.0+137
Sagarin+1.0+108
Massey+4.5+157
Market (13 books)+6.5+234
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.057.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCincinnati Bearcats +7.0-110-132+4.4%
MoneylineCincinnati Bearcats ML+210+183+3.1%
TotalUnder 54.0-110-100shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Cincinnati Bearcats since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.7.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.2 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Boise State Broncos at Western Michigan BroncosBoise State at Western Michigan
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Western Michigan +8.5Moved our way · 2 pts
should be Western Michigan +7.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +7
Sniff of Nasty · Western MichiganBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Western Michigan. Market says Boise State by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Boise State by 7.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Boise State than the bookmore Western Michigan →
Market
Boise State by 7.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI
Boise State by 61.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Boise State by 2.55.1 pts our side
Massey
Boise State by 9.51.9 pts against us
Nasty Number
Boise State by 7.50.2 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Western Michigan. Massey at Boise State by 9.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Boise State by 7.5opened Boise State by 6.5now Boise State by 8.5FriSatSun

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Western Michigan's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.93.6 pts under the market
Massey
50.41.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.70.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.7opened 47.5now 48.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLBoise State ML
TOM+7.5 -11048.5 -110
BetOnline.ag+8 -11047.5 -110
All 14 books
Western Michigan spreadTotal (over)Western Michigan MLBoise State ML
TOM+7.5 -11048.5 -110
Bally Bet+7.5 -11347.5 -110+245-315
BetMGM+8 -10847.5 -110+250-300
BetOnline.ag+8 -11047.5 -110
betPARX+7.5 -11347.5 -110+245-315
BetRivers+7.5 -11347.5 -112+240-315
Caesars49 -110
Courtside+7.5 -10847.5 -108+246-290
DraftKings+7.5 -11047.5 -110+240-298
DraftKings Predictions+7.5 50¢ -108 all-in47.5 51¢ -113 all-in27¢ +245 all-in74¢ -317 all-in
Fanatics+8 -11047.5 -110+250-310
FanDuel+8.5 -11048.5 -115+265-330
LowVig.ag+8 -10647.5 -108
ReBet+8.5 -11647.5 -119+250-360

Marked: best for Western Michigan, higher payout on each moneyline.

Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 58 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Western Michigan): FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (5.7%) · BetMGM +8 at -108 (5.3%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (4.1%) · DraftKings or TOM +7.5 at -110 (3.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Western Michigan to win · +265 at FanDuel
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 27. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Western Michigan loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Western Michigan to win): FanDuel +265 (4.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +250 (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 27¢ on the app (+245 all-in) (3.2%) · DraftKings +240 (2.8%).
Same opinion, more variance
the Under 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 49 at -110 (0.9%) · FanDuel 48.5 at -105 (0.7%) · TOM 48.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -108 (-2.5%) · DraftKings or Fanatics 47.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Western Michigan +8.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 70°F.

Across the books: opened +7.0, now +8.0. The market has moved 0.9 away from Western Michigan, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 47.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBoise State by 7.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Boise State and Western Michigan's last game
FPI+6.0+183
Sagarin+2.5+128
Massey+9.5+264
Market (12 books)+7.5+286
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.547.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWestern Michigan Broncos +8.5-110-138+5.7%
MoneylineWestern Michigan Broncos ML+265+211+4.8%
TotalUnder 48.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Boise State Broncos since 09-18 11:02.

TOM: spread +7.5 here against +7.9 consensus; total 48.5 here against 47.7 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Air Force Falcons at Nevada Wolf PackAir Force at Nevada
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Nevada +4.5
should be Nevada +3.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel
Sniff of Nasty · NevadaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Nevada. Market says Air Force by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Air Force by 3.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Air Force than the bookmore Nevada →
Market
Air Force by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI
Air Force by 0.54.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Nevada by 1.55.8 pts our side
Massey
Air Force by 1.53.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Air Force by 3.51.2 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Nevada. The Nasty Number is 1.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
48.9on the market
Massey
48.9on the market
Nasty Number
48.9on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.9opened 48.9now 48.9Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+4.5 -11049
Kalshi+5.5 -136 56¢48.5 -136 56¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
BetOnline.ag+5 -11249 -110
All 13 books
Nevada spreadTotal (over)Nevada MLAir Force ML
TOM+4.5 -11049
Kalshi+5.5 -136 56¢48.5 -136 56¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
BetMGM+4.5 -10849.5 -105+165-200
BetOnline.ag+5 -11249 -110
Caesars+4.5 -11048.5 -115+167-200
Courtside+4.5 -10848.5 -108+174-200
DraftKings+4.5 -11048.5 -110+170-205
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 56¢ -138 all-in49.5 52¢ -117 all-in37¢ +156 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+4.5 -11049 -110+170-205
FanDuel+4.5 -11049.5 -110+162-196
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -11048.5 -115+170-220
LowVig.ag+5 -10849 -108
ReBet+4.5 -11148.5 -119+166-228

Marked: best for Nevada, higher payout on each moneyline.

Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Nevada): BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (4.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars or TOM +4.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Kalshi +5.5 at 56¢ (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +5.5 at 56¢ on the app (-138 all-in) (-0.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Nevada to win · +170 at Fanatics
We make it 42 in 100 to win. The price says 37. That's value. On Kalshi that's 42 cents fair, a play under 37. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Nevada loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Nevada to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +170 (4.6%) · Caesars +167 (4.2%) · BetMGM +165 (3.9%) · FanDuel +162 (3.5%) · Kalshi 37¢ (3.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 49.0 · -110
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 48.5 at -110 (-1.4%) · Caesars 48.5 at -115 (-2.5%) · Fanatics 49 at -110 (-2.7%) · BetMGM 49.5 at -105 (-2.7%) · FanDuel 49.5 at -110 (-3.9%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Nevada +4.5 · -110 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 78°F.

Full detail
We settle onAir Force by 3.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nevada's last game
FPI+0.5+104
Sagarin-1.5-114
Massey+1.5+114
Market (10 books)+4.5+189
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.048.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineNevada Wolf Pack ML+170+140+4.6%
SpreadNevada Wolf Pack +4.5-110-127+3.5%
TotalOver 49.0-110+101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.6.

TOM matches the consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Colorado State Rams at UTSA RoadrunnersColorado State at UTSA
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Colorado State +12.5
should be Colorado State +11 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics · was +13
Sniff of Nasty · Colorado StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Colorado State. Market says UTSA by 12.5, the Nasty Number says UTSA by 11. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Colorado State than the bookmore UTSA →
Market
UTSA by 12.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI
UTSA by 6.55.8 pts our side
Sagarin
UTSA by 111.3 pts our side
Massey
UTSA by 111.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
UTSA by 111.6 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Colorado State. The Nasty Number is 1.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UTSA by 11opened UTSA by 13now UTSA by 12.5Sun

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colorado State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
54.71.8 pts under the market
Massey
58.31.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.5on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.5opened 58.5now 56.5Sun

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 58.5 to 56.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UTSA spreadTotal (over)UTSA MLColorado State ML
TOM-12.5 -11056.5 -105
BetOnline.ag-12.5 -11058.5 -110
All 15 books
UTSA spreadTotal (over)UTSA MLColorado State ML
TOM-12.5 -11056.5 -105
Bally Bet-12.5 -11256.5 -109-455+340
BetMGM-12 -10857.5 -115-525+400
BetOnline.ag-12.5 -11058.5 -110
betPARX-12.5 -11256.5 -109-455+340
BetRivers-12.5 -11356.5 -110-480+335
Caesars59 -110-560+400
Courtside-11.5 -10857.5 -108-553+439
DraftKings-11.5 -11057.5 -110-575+425
DraftKings Predictions57.5 52¢ -117 all-in83¢ -566 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-12.5 -11057.5 -110-525+390
FanDuel-13.5 -10557.5 -110-520+385
Hard Rock Bet-12.5 -11557.5 -110-500+375
LowVig.ag-12.5 -10658.5 -108
ReBet-13.5 -11157.5 -111-549+350

Marked: best for Colorado State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado State +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Colorado State): FanDuel +13.5 at -115 (3.8%) · Fanatics or TOM +12.5 at -110 (3.5%) · BetMGM +12 at -110 (2.9%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Colorado State to win · +425 at DraftKings
We make it 24 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Colorado State to win): DraftKings +425 (5.2%) · Caesars or BetMGM +400 (4.3%) · Fanatics +390 (3.9%) · FanDuel +385 (3.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 19¢ on the app (+376 all-in) (3.3%).
Off the band
the Over 56.5 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 56.5 at -105 (0.4%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings 57.5 at -110 (-3.3%) · BetMGM 57.5 at -115 (-4.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.9%) · Caesars 59 at -110 (-7.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado State +12.5 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -12.5. The market has moved 0.7 toward Colorado State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUTSA by 1140% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado State and UTSA's last game
FPI-6.5-197
Sagarin-11.0-322
Massey-11.0-306
Market (13 books)-12.5-462
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.556.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado State Rams +12.5-110-127+3.5%
MoneylineColorado State Rams ML+425+312priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 56.5-105-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Colorado State Rams since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: total 56.5 here against 57.5 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Oklahoma Sooners at Georgia BulldogsOklahoma at Georgia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Oklahoma +14
should be Oklahoma +13 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +12
Sniff of Nasty · OklahomaBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Oklahoma. Market says Georgia by 14, the Nasty Number says Georgia by 13. At -103 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Oklahoma than the bookmore Georgia →
Market
Georgia by 14TOM, -117
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI
Georgia by 12.51.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Georgia by 95 pts our side
Massey
Georgia by 95.2 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia by 131.1 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Oklahoma. The Nasty Number is 1.1 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia by 13opened Georgia by 14now Georgia by 14Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
43.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
45.11.6 pts over the market
Massey
506.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
47.64.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47.6opened 44now 43.5Sun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 44 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
TOM-14 -11743.5 -110
Kalshi-660 86¢
BetOnline.ag-14 -11044 -110
All 17 books
Georgia spreadTotal (over)Georgia MLOklahoma ML
TOM-14 -11743.5 -110
Kalshi-660 86¢
Bally Bet-13.5 -10844.5 -113-590+410
BetMGM-14 -10844.5 -102-650+500
BetOnline.ag-14 -11044 -110
betPARX-13.5 -10844.5 -113-590+410
BetRivers-13.5 -10944.5 -114-590+410
Caesars-14 -10944.5 -108-675+475
Courtside-14 -10845.5 +100-646+508
DraftKings-14 -11045.5 -102-675+490
DraftKings Predictions-14.5 47¢ +104 all-in43.5 57¢ -144 all-in86¢ -733 all-in15¢ +488 all-in
Fanatics-14 -11044 -115-650+475
FanDuel-13.5 -12043.5 -110-670+470
Fliff-13.5 -12043.5 -115-690+465
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11545.5 -105-650+425
LowVig.ag-14 -10644 -108
ReBet-13.5 -11945.5 -109-699+410

Marked: best for Oklahoma, higher payout on each moneyline.

Oklahoma +14.0 · -103 at TOM
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Oklahoma): TOM +14 at -103 (3.5%) · DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics or Caesars +14 at -110 (1.9%) · FanDuel +13.5 at -102 (1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +14.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (0.1%).
A Little Nasty
Oklahoma to win · +470 at Fanatics
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oklahoma to win): BetMGM +500 (3.9%) · DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +490 (15¢ on the app) (3.7%) · Fanatics, Caesars or FanDuel +475 (3.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 43.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or TOM 43.5 at -110 (2.6%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -102 (2.0%) · Caesars 44.5 at -108 (0.5%) · Fanatics 44 at -115 (0.3%) · DraftKings 45.5 at -102 (-0.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Oklahoma +14.0 · -103 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Across the books: opened -12.0, now -14.0. The market has moved 1.9 away from Oklahoma, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Georgia Bulldogs -16.5, only $0 available; Oklahoma Sooners +16.5, only $39 available; Oklahoma Sooners ML, only $82 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.8 consensus.

TOM: total 43.5 here against 44.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia by 1330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oklahoma and Georgia's last game
FPI-12.5-372
Sagarin-9.0-252
Massey-9.0-248
Market (14 books)-14.0-574
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points43.547.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOklahoma Sooners +14.0-103-119+3.5%
MoneylineOklahoma Sooners ML+470+385priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 43.5-110-122shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.9 toward Georgia Bulldogs since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 2.6.

TOM: spread -14.0 here against -13.8 consensus; total 43.5 here against 44.5 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ball State Cardinals at Kent State Golden FlashesBall State at Kent State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Ball State +4.5
should be Ball State +3 · getting 1.5 pts at DraftKings
Sniff of Nasty · Ball StateBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Ball State. Market says Kent State by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Kent State by 3. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Ball State than the bookmore Kent State →
Market
Kent State by 3.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI
Kent State by 0.52.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Kent State by 5.51.9 pts against us
Massey
Ball State by 1.54.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
Kent State by 30.6 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Ball State. Sagarin at Kent State by 5.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.91.1 pts under the market
Massey
54.35.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.12.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.1opened 51.5now 49Sun

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 51.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLBall State ML
TOM-3.5 -11049 -110
BetOnline.ag-4 -11051.5 -110
All 15 books
Kent State spreadTotal (over)Kent State MLBall State ML
TOM-3.5 -11049 -110
Bally Bet-3.5 -11250.5 -112-167+138
BetMGM-4 -10851.5 -105-185+150
BetOnline.ag-4 -11051.5 -110
betPARX-3.5 -11250.5 -112-167+138
BetRivers-3.5 -11350.5 -113-175+138
Caesars51.5 -106-179+150
Courtside-4.5 -10851.5 -108-181+157
DraftKings-4.5 -11051.5 -110-185+154
DraftKings Predictions-3.5 50¢ -108 all-in49.5 51¢ -113 all-in60¢ -163 all-in39¢ +144 all-in
Fanatics-4 -11051.5 -105-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -11050.5 -110-176+146
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -11550.5 -120-200+165
LowVig.ag-4 -10651.5 -108
ReBet-4.5 -10951.5 -105-208+153

Marked: best for Ball State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ball State): DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +4 at -110 (3.5%) · FanDuel or TOM +3.5 at -110 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).
A Little Nasty
Ball State to win · +150 at Fanatics
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 40. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 38. Where, best first (Ball State to win): DraftKings +154 (3.3%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM +150 (2.7%) · FanDuel +146 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 39¢ on the app (+144 all-in) (1.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -110 (3.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.1%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or BetMGM 51.5 at -105 (-2.2%) · Caesars 51.5 at -106 (-2.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ball State +4.5 · -110 at DraftKings. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 51.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKent State by 330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ball State and Kent State's last game
FPI-0.5-106
Sagarin-5.5-173
Massey+1.5+114
Market (13 books)-3.5-166
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.051.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBall State Cardinals +4.5-110-132+4.6%
MoneylineBall State Cardinals ML+150+134+2.7%
TotalOver 49.0-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 0.6.

TOM: spread -3.5 here against -3.9 consensus; total 49.0 here against 51.1 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Ole Miss Rebels at Florida GatorsOle Miss at Florida
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Ole Miss +3
should be Ole Miss +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +1.5
Sniff of Nasty · Ole MissBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Ole Miss. Market says Florida by 3, the Nasty Number says Florida by 2. At +102 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 61.5 as well.

The spread

← more Ole Miss than the bookmore Florida →
Market
Florida by 3TOM, -122
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI
Florida by 12.1 pts our side
Sagarin
Florida by 41 pts against us
Massey
Ole Miss by 4.57.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida by 20.8 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Ole Miss. Sagarin at Florida by 4 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida by 2opened Florida by 3now Florida by 3Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
61.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
51.310.2 pts under the market
Massey
56.55 pts under the market
Weather
-0.712 mph wind, takes 0.7 points off
Nasty Number
53.28.3 pts under the market
Under 61.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 59.5now 61.5Sun

The total has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 2 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
TOM-3 -12261.5 -110
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢-143 57¢+109 46¢
BetOnline.ag-3 -10559.5 -115
All 15 books
Florida spreadTotal (over)Florida MLOle Miss ML
TOM-3 -12261.5 -110
Kalshi-2.5 -121 53¢-143 57¢+109 46¢
Bally Bet-2.5 -11259 -109-136+112
BetMGM-2.5 -11559.5 -108-140+115
BetOnline.ag-3 -10559.5 -115
betPARX-2.5 -11259 -109-136+112
BetRivers-2.5 -11359 -110-137+112
Courtside-2.5 -10859.5 -108-132+116
DraftKings-2.5 -11059.5 -110-135+114
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 53¢ -122 all-in59.5 57¢ -144 all-in57¢ -144 all-in44¢ +117 all-in
Fanatics-2.5 -11559.5 -110-140+115
FanDuel-2.5 -11558.5 -115-137+114
Fliff-2.5 -12059.5 -115-140+110
Hard Rock Bet-2.5 -11059.5 -105-135+110
ReBet-2.5 -11459.5 -111-141+107

Marked: best for Ole Miss, higher payout on each moneyline.

Ole Miss +3.0 · +102 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Ole Miss): TOM +3 at +102 (3.4%) · Kalshi +2.5 at 48¢ (-0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-0.9%) · FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.2%).
A Little Nasty
Ole Miss to win · +114 at DraftKings
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Ole Miss to win): DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-1.6%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +115 (-2.0%) · DraftKings or FanDuel +114 (-2.2%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 61.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 0.7 off. That's 8.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 61.5 at -110 (6.3%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics 59.5 at -110 (1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.7%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -105 (-0.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Ole Miss +3.0 · +102 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 12 mph wind, 85°F. Total pulled down 0.7 for it.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -2.5. The market has moved 1.0 away from Ole Miss, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Over 61.5, only $10 available; Under 61.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus.

TOM: total 61.5 here against 59.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida by 221% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Ole Miss and Florida's last game
FPI-1.0-109
Sagarin-4.0-150
Massey+4.5+156
Market (12 books)-3.0-125
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points61.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOle Miss Rebels +3.0+102-112+3.4%
MoneylineOle Miss Rebels ML+114+125-2.2%
TotalUnder 61.5-110-142shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Florida Gators since 09-18 14:31; total has moved up 1.3.

TOM: spread -3.0 here against -2.5 consensus; total 61.5 here against 59.3 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

UNLV Rebels at Akron ZipsUNLV at Akron
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Akron +14
should be Akron +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at Fanatics
Sniff of Nasty · AkronBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Akron. Market says UNLV by 14, the Nasty Number says UNLV by 12.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more UNLV than the bookmore Akron →
Market
UNLV by 14TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI
UNLV by 104.2 pts our side
Sagarin
UNLV by 212 pts our side
Massey
UNLV by 13.50.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
UNLV by 12.51.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Akron. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UNLV by 12.5opened UNLV by 14now UNLV by 14Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.7on the market
Massey
51.11.6 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.40.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 49.5now 49.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
TOM+14 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi+13.5 -112 51¢49.5 -116 52¢-609 85¢
BetOnline.ag+14 -10549.5 -110
All 15 books
Akron spreadTotal (over)Akron MLUNLV ML
TOM+14 -11049.5 -110
Kalshi+13.5 -112 51¢49.5 -116 52¢-609 85¢
Bally Bet+13.5 -10850.5 -108+500-715
BetOnline.ag+14 -10549.5 -110
betPARX+13.5 -10850.5 -108+500-715
BetRivers+13.5 -10950.5 -109+460-715
Caesars+14 -10849.5 -109
Courtside+14 -10849.5 -103+487-623
DraftKings+14 -11049.5 -105+470-650
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 50¢ -108 all-in49.5 51¢ -113 all-in16¢ +456 all-in85¢ -670 all-in
Fanatics+14 -10549.5 -110+475-650
FanDuel+14.5 -11849.5 -110+500-720
Hard Rock Bet+14.5 -11549.5 -110+475-700
LowVig.ag+14 -10149.5 -108
ReBet+14.5 -11949.5 -114+430-752

Marked: best for Akron, higher payout on each moneyline.

Akron +14.0 · -105 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Akron): Fanatics +14 at -105 (3.3%) · Caesars +14 at -108 (2.6%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (2.2%) · DraftKings or TOM +14 at -110 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (0.4%).
A Little Nasty
Akron to win · +481 at Fanatics
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Akron to win): FanDuel +500 (4.1%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +475 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 16¢ on the app (+456 all-in) (2.8%).
Off the band
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 50 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings 49.5 at -105 (-0.1%) · Caesars 49.5 at -109 (-1.0%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 49.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.8%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 52¢ (-2.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Akron +14.0 · -105 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Akron Zips ML, only $74 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUNLV by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Akron's last game
FPI+10.0+276
Sagarin+2.0+123
Massey+13.5+406
Market (12 books)+14.0+612
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAkron Zips +14.0-105-120+3.3%
MoneylineAkron Zips ML+481+381priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 4.8.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 49.8 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Arizona Wildcats at Washington State CougarsArizona at Washington State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Under 48.5
should be 47.4 · getting 1.3 pts · was 49.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 48.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Washington State too: market says Arizona by 13, the Nasty Number says Arizona by 11.5, but at -110 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Arizona than the bookmore Washington State →
Market
Arizona by 13
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI
Arizona by 10.52.3 pts our side
Sagarin
Arizona by 76.2 pts our side
Massey
Arizona by 5.57.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Arizona by 11.51.3 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Washington State. The Nasty Number is 1.3 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arizona by 11.5opened Arizona by 12.5now Arizona by 13Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Washington State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5
The Four
SP+ pace
444.7 pts under the market
Massey
44.64.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.34.4 pts under the market
Under 48.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.3opened 49.5now 48.5Sun

The total has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1 point more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Washington State +13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Washington State): DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (2.8%) · Fanatics +13 at -110 (2.2%) · FanDuel +12.5 at -110 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (-1.2%).
Not Nasty
Washington State to win · +400 at FanDuel
We make it 23 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Washington State to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +425 (3.7%) · Fanatics +410 (3.1%) · FanDuel or Caesars +400 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 20¢ on the app (+355 all-in) (0.8%).
Off the band
the Under 48.5 · -110
SP+ projects 44 and Massey projects 45. That's 4.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 49.5 at -115 (1.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars 48.5 at -110 (0.4%) · BetMGM 48.5 at -112 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions 47.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-2.7%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 48.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 58°F.

Full detail
We settle onArizona by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Arizona and Washington State's last game
FPI+10.5+303
Sagarin+7.0+200
Massey+5.5+172
Market (12 books)+13.0+496
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.544.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadWashington State Cougars +13.0-110-120+2.2%
MoneylineWashington State Cougars ML+400+339priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 48.5-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.8.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Jacksonville State GamecocksMiddle Tennessee at Jacksonville State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Middle Tennessee +9
should be Middle Tennessee +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics
Sniff of Nasty · Middle TennesseeBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Middle Tennessee. Market says Jacksonville State by 9, the Nasty Number says Jacksonville State by 8.5. At -110 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Middle Tennessee than the bookmore Jacksonville State →
Market
Jacksonville State by 9
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI
Jacksonville State by 6.52.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Jacksonville State by 122.9 pts against us
Massey
Jacksonville State by 81.1 pts our side
Nasty Number
Jacksonville State by 8.50.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Middle Tennessee. Sagarin at Jacksonville State by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this week

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Jacksonville State by 8.5opened Jacksonville State by 9now Jacksonville State by 9Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54
The Four
SP+ pace
57.73.9 pts over the market
Massey
53.7on the market
Nasty Number
55.71.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.7opened 53.5now 53.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee): DraftKings +9.5 at -110 (3.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +9 at -110 (3.1%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +8.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-4.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Middle Tennessee to win · +266 at FanDuel
We make it 30 in 100 to win. The price says 27. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 30 cents fair, a play under 25. Where, best first (Middle Tennessee to win): FanDuel or Caesars +265 (2.1%) · Fanatics, DraftKings, BetMGM or DraftKings Predictions +260 (26¢ on the app) (1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 54.0 · -110
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.9%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 53.5 at -112 (-0.6%) · Caesars 54.5 at -104 (-1.2%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-1.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Middle Tennessee +9.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 75°F.

Full detail
We settle onJacksonville State by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Middle Tennessee and Jacksonville State's last game
FPI-6.5-195
Sagarin-12.0-348
Massey-8.0-225
Market (13 books)-9.0-313
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.055.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders +9.0-110-125+3.1%
MoneylineMiddle Tennessee Blue Raiders ML+266+239+2.2%
TotalOver 54.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Florida Atlantic Owls at UL Monroe WarhawksFlorida Atlantic at UL Monroe
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
UL Monroe +14
should be UL Monroe +12.5 · getting 1.5 pts at TOM · was +13
Sniff of Nasty · UL MonroeBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UL Monroe. Market says Florida Atlantic by 14, the Nasty Number says Florida Atlantic by 12.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more Florida Atlantic than the bookmore UL Monroe →
Market
Florida Atlantic by 14TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI
Florida Atlantic by 104 pts our side
Sagarin
Florida Atlantic by 7.56.7 pts our side
Massey
Florida Atlantic by 5.58.4 pts our side
Nasty Number
Florida Atlantic by 12.51.5 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean UL Monroe. The Nasty Number is 1.5 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Florida Atlantic by 12.5opened Florida Atlantic by 13.5now Florida Atlantic by 14Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in UL Monroe's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
63.44.9 pts over the market
Massey
59.51 pts over the market
Nasty Number
61.42.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.4opened 59now 58.5Sun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 59 to 58.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+14 -11558.5 -110
Kalshi+13.5 -116 52¢58.5 -121 53¢+398 19¢
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -11759 -110
All 15 books
UL Monroe spreadTotal (over)UL Monroe MLFlorida Atlantic ML
TOM+14 -11558.5 -110
Kalshi+13.5 -116 52¢58.5 -121 53¢+398 19¢
Bally Bet+13.5 -11258.5 -109+360-480
BetMGM+13.5 -11059.5 -102+450-600
BetOnline.ag+13.5 -11759 -110
betPARX+13.5 -11258.5 -109+360-480
BetRivers+13.5 -11358.5 -110+350-480
Caesars+13.5 -11259 -110+425-590
Courtside+13.5 -10859.5 -108+455-576
DraftKings+13.5 -11059.5 -110+440-600
Fanatics+13.5 -11059 -110+425-575
FanDuel+13.5 -10558.5 -110+440-610
Hard Rock Bet+13.5 +10058.5 -115+400-550
LowVig.ag+13.5 -11359 -108
ReBet+13.5 -10558.5 -119+370-599

Marked: best for UL Monroe, higher payout on each moneyline.

UL Monroe +14.0 · -115 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UL Monroe): FanDuel +13.5 at -105 (1.9%) · TOM +14 at -115 (1.8%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM +13.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Caesars +13.5 at -112 (0.3%) · Kalshi +13.5 at 52¢ (-0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
UL Monroe to win · +425 at Fanatics
We make it 21 in 100 to win, the price says 19, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (UL Monroe to win): BetMGM +450 (3.1%) · FanDuel or DraftKings +440 (2.8%) · Fanatics or Caesars +425 (2.2%) · Kalshi 19¢ (1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 58.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 59. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or TOM 58.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · BetMGM 59.5 at -102 (-0.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars 59 at -110 (-1.3%) · Kalshi 58.5 at 53¢ (-2.5%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -110 (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UL Monroe +14.0 · -115 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Kalshi thin: Florida Atlantic Owls ML, only $151 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus.

TOM: total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onFlorida Atlantic by 12.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Florida Atlantic's last game
FPI+10.0+283
Sagarin+7.5+211
Massey+5.5+177
Market (13 books)+14.0+497
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.561.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUL Monroe Warhawks +14.0-115-124+1.8%
MoneylineUL Monroe Warhawks ML+425+370priced at 19 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 58.5-110-110shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus; total 58.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

TCU Horned Frogs at UCF KnightsTCU at UCF
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
UCF +3.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be UCF +2.5 · getting 1 pt at FanDuel · was +2
Sniff of Nasty · UCFBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, UCF. Market says TCU by 3.5, the Nasty Number says TCU by 2.5. At -115 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play.

The spread

← more TCU than the bookmore UCF →
Market
TCU by 3.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPI
a pick'em3.3 pts our side
Sagarin
UCF by 3.57 pts our side
Massey
TCU by 2.50.9 pts our side
Nasty Number
TCU by 2.50.9 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean UCF. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number TCU by 2.5opened TCU by 2.5now TCU by 3.5Sun

The line has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 1 point more in UCF's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
44.64.9 pts under the market
Massey
49.4on the market
Nasty Number
472.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 47opened 51now 49.5Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 51 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
TOM+3.5 -11549.5 -110
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢49.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-148 58¢
BetOnline.ag+3 +10051 -110
All 14 books
UCF spreadTotal (over)UCF MLTCU ML
TOM+3.5 -11549.5 -110
Kalshi+3.5 -121 53¢49.5 -112 51¢+129 42¢-148 58¢
Bally Bet+3.5 -11051.5 -112+140-175
BetOnline.ag+3 +10051 -110
betPARX+3.5 -11051.5 -112+140-175
BetRivers+3.5 -11251.5 -113+138-175
Caesars+3 -10850.5 -117+134-159
Courtside+3 -10850.5 -108+133-152
DraftKings+3 -11050.5 -110+130-155
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 53¢ -122 all-in49.5 51¢ -113 all-in42¢ +127 all-in59¢ -157 all-in
Fanatics+3.5 -11551 -110+135-160
FanDuel+3.5 -11551.5 -110+134-162
LowVig.ag+3 +10451 -108
ReBet+3.5 -12851.5 -109+127-170

Marked: best for UCF, higher payout on each moneyline.

UCF +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (UCF): FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +3.5 at -115 (1.7%) · Kalshi +3.5 at 53¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +3.5 at 53¢ on the app (-122 all-in) (0.1%) · Caesars +3 at -108 (-0.2%) · DraftKings +3 at -110 (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
UCF to win · +135 at Fanatics
We make it 43 in 100 to win. The price says 43. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 43 cents fair, a play under 39. Where, best first (UCF to win): Fanatics, FanDuel or Caesars +135 (0.9%) · DraftKings +130 (-0.1%) · Kalshi 42¢ (-0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 42¢ on the app (+127 all-in) (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 49.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · Kalshi 49.5 at 51¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.1%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-3.0%) · Fanatics 51 at -110 (-4.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is UCF +3.5 · -115 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened +2.0, now +3.5. The market has moved 1.4 away from UCF, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTCU by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen TCU and UCF's last game
FPIPK+102
Sagarin-3.5-142
Massey+2.5+130
Market (11 books)+3.5+150
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.547.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUCF Knights +3.5-115-123+1.7%
MoneylineUCF Knights ML+135+130+0.9%
TotalOver 49.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.4 toward TCU Horned Frogs since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 51.1 consensus.

Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State BulldogsMissouri at Mississippi State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:45pm
Missouri +5.5Moved our way · 2 pts
should be Missouri +4.5 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was +1.5
Sniff of Nasty · MissouriBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Missouri. Market says Mississippi State by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Mississippi State by 4.5. At -105 that's too thin to bet. A half point better and it's a play. The total leans Under 59.5 as well.

The spread

← more Missouri than the bookmore Mississippi State →
Market
Mississippi State by 5.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI
Mississippi State by 60.3 pts against us
Sagarin
Mississippi State by 60.4 pts against us
Massey
a pick'em5.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Mississippi State by 4.51 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Missouri. FPI at Mississippi State by 6 and Sagarin at Mississippi State by 6 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 2 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Mississippi State by 4.5opened Mississippi State by 3.5now Mississippi State by 5.5Sun

The line has moved 2 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 2 points more in Missouri's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
59.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
54.25.3 pts under the market
Massey
56.13.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
55.14.4 pts under the market
Under 59.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 55.1opened 59now 59.5Sun

The total has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 0.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -11559.5 -110
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -12059 -115
All 14 books
Mississippi State spreadTotal (over)Mississippi State MLMissouri ML
TOM-5.5 -11559.5 -110
Kalshi-5.5 -116 52¢59.5 -112 51¢-208 66¢+152 38¢
Bally Bet-3.5 -10759.5 -110-162+133
BetOnline.ag-3.5 -12059 -115
betPARX-3.5 -10759.5 -110-162+133
BetRivers-3.5 -10859.5 -112-165+132
Courtside-3.5 -10858.5 -108-176+153
DraftKings-3.5 -11058.5 -110-180+150
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 49¢ -104 all-in59.5 50¢ -108 all-in65¢ -203 all-in43¢ +123 all-in
Fanatics-4 -10559 -110-180+150
FanDuel-3.5 -11558.5 -110-178+146
Hard Rock Bet-3.5 -11558.5 -115-185+155
LowVig.ag-3.5 -11659 -114
ReBet-3.5 -11958.5 -116-198+146

Marked: best for Missouri, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri +5.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Missouri): TOM +5.5 at -105 (3.6%) · DraftKings Predictions +6.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.1%) · FanDuel +3.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +4 at -115 (-1.6%) · DraftKings +3.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Missouri to win · +146 at FanDuel
We make it 39 in 100 to win. The price says 41. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 39 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Missouri to win): Kalshi 38¢ (-0.8%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +150 (-1.1%) · FanDuel +146 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 43¢ on the app (+123 all-in) (-6.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 59.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 56. That's 4.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 59.5 at -110 (2.9%) · Fanatics 59 at -110 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (1.4%) · DraftKings or FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (0.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Missouri +5.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -1.5, now -3.5. The market has moved 2.0 away from Missouri, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Missouri Tigers +5.5, only $3 available; Under 59.5, only $27 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -3.5 consensus.

TOM: total 59.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMississippi State by 4.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Missouri and Mississippi State's last game
FPI-6.0-180
Sagarin-6.0-183
MasseyPK+102
Market (11 books)-5.5-161
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points59.555.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri Tigers +5.5-105-121+3.6%
MoneylineMissouri Tigers ML+146+157-1.7%
TotalUnder 59.5-110-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.0 toward Mississippi State Bulldogs since 09-18 18:45; total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread -5.5 here against -3.5 consensus; total 59.5 here against 58.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia MountaineersOklahoma State at West Virginia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Under 60.5Moved our way · 1 pt
should be 57.7 · getting 2.8 pts · was 57.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 60.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.3 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says West Virginia by 1.5, the Nasty Number says West Virginia by 2. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Oklahoma State than the bookmore West Virginia →
Market
West Virginia by 1.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI
West Virginia by 2.51 pts our side
Sagarin
West Virginia by 42.6 pts our side
Massey
West Virginia by 64.5 pts our side
Nasty Number
West Virginia by 20.6 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean West Virginia. The Nasty Number is 0.6 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 4 pts

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number West Virginia by 2opened Oklahoma State by 2.5now West Virginia by 1.5FriSatSun

The market has come 4 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but West Virginia is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
60.5TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.97.6 pts under the market
Massey
53.66.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.27.3 pts under the market
Under 60.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.3 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.2opened 59.5now 60.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1 point more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-1.5 -11060.5 -110
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11759.5 -110
All 13 books
West Virginia spreadTotal (over)West Virginia MLOklahoma State ML
TOM-1.5 -11060.5 -110
Bally Bet-1 -11059.5 -109-118-104
BetOnline.ag-2.5 -11759.5 -110
betPARX-1 -11059.5 -109-118-104
BetRivers-1 -11259.5 -110-120-105
Courtside-1.5 -10859.5 -113-118+102
DraftKings-1.5 -11059.5 -115-120+100
DraftKings Predictions54¢ -127 all-in48¢ -100 all-in
Fanatics-1.5 -11060 -110-120+100
FanDuel-1.5 -11560.5 -110-126+105
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11059.5 -110-120+100
LowVig.ag-2.5 -11359.5 -108
ReBet-1.5 -11159.5 -114-126-105

Marked: best for West Virginia, higher payout on each moneyline.

West Virginia -1.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (West Virginia): DraftKings, Fanatics or TOM -1.5 at -110 (0.4%) · FanDuel -1.5 at -115 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
West Virginia to win · -120 at DraftKings
We make it 55 in 100 to win. The price says 55. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 55 cents fair, a play under 51. Where, best first (West Virginia to win): DraftKings or Fanatics -120 (0.7%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions -126 (54¢ on the app) (-0.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 54. That's 7.3 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel or TOM 60.5 at -110 (4.6%) · Fanatics 60 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings 59.5 at -105 (3.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 60.5 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 62°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5. The market has moved 4.0 toward West Virginia, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWest Virginia by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oklahoma State and West Virginia's last game
FPI-2.5-129
Sagarin-4.0-152
Massey-6.0-184
Market (11 books)-1.5-109
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points60.553.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineWest Virginia Mountaineers ML-120-123+0.7%
SpreadWest Virginia Mountaineers -1.5-110-112+0.4%
TotalUnder 60.5-110-132shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward West Virginia Mountaineers since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 2.1.

TOM: total 60.5 here against 59.6 consensus.

Northern Illinois Huskies at Georgia State PanthersNorthern Illinois at Georgia State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Under 55
should be 53.6 · getting 1.4 pts · was 54.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 55.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.9 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Georgia State by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Georgia State by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Northern Illinois than the bookmore Georgia State →
Market
Georgia State by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI
Georgia State by 10.51 pts against us
Sagarin
Georgia State by 111.3 pts against us
Massey
Georgia State by 54.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Georgia State by 9.50 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Northern Illinois. FPI at Georgia State by 10.5 and Sagarin at Georgia State by 11 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia State by 9.5opened Georgia State by 8.5now Georgia State by 9.5Sun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Northern Illinois is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.52.5 pts under the market
Massey
49.65.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.13.9 pts under the market
Under 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.9 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.1opened 55now 55Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia State spreadTotal (over)Georgia State MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-9.5 -11055 -110
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11055 -110
All 13 books
Georgia State spreadTotal (over)Georgia State MLNorthern Illinois ML
TOM-9.5 -11055 -110
Bally Bet-8.5 -10854.5 -110-345+270
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11055 -110
betPARX-8.5 -10854.5 -110-345+270
BetRivers-8.5 -10954.5 -112-360+265
Caesars-9.5 -11254.5 -115
Courtside-8.5 -10854.5 -108-369+308
DraftKings-8.5 -11054.5 -110-380+300
DraftKings Predictions55.5 50¢ -108 all-in78¢ -401 all-in23¢ +300 all-in
Fanatics-9.5 -11055 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -11555.5 -110-420+320
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10655 -108
ReBet-9.5 -11654.5 -119-380+260

Marked: best for Northern Illinois, higher payout on each moneyline.

Northern Illinois +9.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Northern Illinois): FanDuel +9.5 at -105 (2.0%) · Caesars +9.5 at -108 (1.3%) · Fanatics or TOM +9.5 at -110 (0.8%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -110 (-0.0%).
Not Nasty
Northern Illinois to win · +320 at FanDuel
We make it 27 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Northern Illinois to win): FanDuel +320 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions or DraftKings +300 (23¢ on the app) (2.4%) · Fanatics +290 (1.7%).
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.9 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.3%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.1%) · Caesars 54.5 at -105 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.7%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-0.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 73°F.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.0 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia State by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Northern Illinois and Georgia State's last game
FPI-10.5-296
Sagarin-11.0-308
Massey-5.0-164
Market (11 books)-9.5-335
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.051.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNorthern Illinois Huskies +9.5-105-114+2.0%
MoneylineNorthern Illinois Huskies ML+320+266priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-110-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -9.0 consensus; total 55.0 here against 54.7 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Wyoming CowboysHawai'i at Wyoming
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:00pm
Under 45
should be 43.7 · getting 1.3 pts · was 45.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 45.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 3.4 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. The side leans Hawai'i too: market says Hawai'i by 3.5, the Nasty Number says Hawai'i by 5.5, but at +100 that's too thin.

The spread

← more Hawai'i than the bookmore Wyoming →
Market
Hawai'i by 3.5TOM, -120
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI
Hawai'i by 95.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Hawai'i by 2.51.1 pts against us
Massey
Hawai'i by 0.53.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
Hawai'i by 5.51.9 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Hawai'i. Sagarin at Hawai'i by 2.5 and Massey at Hawai'i by 0.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why this is a lean, not a pick. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Hawai'i by 5.5opened Hawai'i by 4now Hawai'i by 3.5Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Hawai'i's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
45TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
42.72.3 pts under the market
Massey
44.10.9 pts under the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
41.63.4 pts under the market
Under 45 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.4 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 41.6opened 45now 45Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
TOM+3.5 -12045 -110
Kalshi+3.545.5 -112 51¢+152 38¢
BetOnline.ag+4 -10545 -110
All 16 books
Wyoming spreadTotal (over)Wyoming MLHawai'i ML
TOM+3.5 -12045 -110
Kalshi+3.545.5 -112 51¢+152 38¢
Bally Bet+5.5 -11045.5 -112+175-215
BetMGM+5 -11044.5 -115+175-210
BetOnline.ag+4 -10545 -110
betPARX+5.5 -11045.5 -112+175-215
BetRivers+5.5 -11245.5 -113+170-220
Caesars+5.5 -11044.5 -117+174-209
Courtside+5.5 -10844.5 -108+174-200
DraftKings+5.5 -11044.5 -110+170-205
DraftKings Predictions+3.5 52¢ -117 all-in45.5 50¢ -108 all-in38¢ +150 all-in63¢ -185 all-in
Fanatics+5.5 -11045 -110+175-215
FanDuel+5.5 -11045.5 -110+172-210
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -11045.5 -105+180-230
LowVig.ag+4 -10145 -108
ReBet+5.5 -11645.5 -109+176-242

Marked: best for Hawai'i, higher payout on each moneyline.

Hawai'i -3.5 · +100 at TOM
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Hawai'i): TOM -3.5 at +100 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions -3.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.1%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 52¢ (-1.8%) · BetMGM -5 at -108 (-3.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars -5.5 at -110 (-4.8%).
Not Nasty
Hawai'i to win · 63¢ on the app (-185 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 65. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Hawai'i to win): DraftKings Predictions 63¢ on the app (-185 all-in) (-1.5%) · DraftKings -205 (-3.8%) · Caesars, FanDuel or BetMGM -209 (-4.2%) · Fanatics -215 (-4.8%).
Not Nasty
the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 43 and Massey projects 44. Weather takes 1.8 off. That's 3.4 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 45.5 at -110 (2.1%) · BetMGM 44.5 at -102 (1.4%) · Caesars 44.5 at -103 (1.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 45 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.5%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 45.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 71°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Kalshi thin: Wyoming Cowboys +3.5, only $8 available; Hawaii Rainbow Warriors ML, only $189 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +5.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHawai'i by 5.540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wyoming's last game
FPI+9.0+251
Sagarin+2.5+127
Massey+0.5+103
Market (13 books)+3.5+197
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points45.041.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadHawaii Rainbow Warriors -3.5+100-108+1.9%
MoneylineHawaii Rainbow Warriors ML-185-173-1.5%
TotalUnder 45.0-110-114shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +3.5 here against +5.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Vanderbilt Commodores at Auburn TigersVanderbilt at Auburn
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 3:15pm
Under 53
should be 51.9 · getting 1.1 pts · was 50.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 53.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 4.2 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Auburn by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Auburn by 9.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Vanderbilt than the bookmore Auburn →
Market
Auburn by 9.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI
Auburn by 90.5 pts our side
Sagarin
Auburn by 90.4 pts our side
Massey
Auburn by 4.55 pts our side
Nasty Number
Auburn by 9.50.2 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean Vanderbilt. The Nasty Number is 0.2 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Auburn by 9.5opened Auburn by 8.5now Auburn by 9.5FriSatSun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Vanderbilt is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
49.23.8 pts under the market
Massey
48.44.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.84.2 pts under the market
Under 53 is a little nasty. Our total is 4.2 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-9.5 -11053 -110
Kalshi-9.553.5 -103 49¢-360 77¢+266 26¢
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11053 -110
All 14 books
Auburn spreadTotal (over)Auburn MLVanderbilt ML
TOM-9.5 -11053 -110
Kalshi-9.553.5 -103 49¢-360 77¢+266 26¢
Bally Bet-9 -11252.5 -112-375+285
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11053 -110
betPARX-9 -11252.5 -112-375+285
BetRivers-9 -11352.5 -113-385+285
Courtside-9.5 -10852.5 -108-350+293
DraftKings-9.5 -11052.5 -110-360+285
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 50¢ -108 all-in53.5 49¢ -104 all-in76¢ -355 all-in25¢ +270 all-in
Fanatics-9.5 -11053 -110-375+290
FanDuel-9.5 -11053.5 -112-350+270
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11052.5 -115-350+260
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10653 -108
ReBet-9.5 -11652.5 -116-391+265

Marked: best for Vanderbilt, higher payout on each moneyline.

Vanderbilt +9.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 54 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Vanderbilt): DraftKings, FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM +9.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (1.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Vanderbilt to win · +285 at DraftKings
We make it 28 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 28 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Vanderbilt to win): Fanatics +290 (2.1%) · DraftKings +285 (1.8%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel +270 (25¢ on the app) (0.8%) · Kalshi 26¢ (0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 48. That's 4.2 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 53.5 at -108 (2.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 53 at -110 (0.4%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 52¢ (0.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (0.0%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-0.9%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 53.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 82°F.

Across the books: opened -8.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 0.9 away from Vanderbilt, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Auburn Tigers -9.5, only $180 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAuburn by 9.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Vanderbilt and Auburn's last game
FPI-9.0-252
Sagarin-9.0-255
Massey-4.5-158
Market (11 books)-9.5-331
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.048.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineVanderbilt Commodores ML+285+260+1.8%
SpreadVanderbilt Commodores +9.5-110-116+1.3%
TotalUnder 53.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Auburn Tigers since 09-18 15:18; total has moved up 2.2.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.7 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Texas Longhorns at Tennessee VolunteersTexas at Tennessee
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Over 56
should be 58.4 · getting 2.4 pts · was 56.5
Sniff of Nasty · OverBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Over 56.0. SP+ and Massey say over by 5.0 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Texas by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Texas by 5.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Texas than the bookmore Tennessee →
Market
Texas by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI
Texas by 7.5
Sagarin
Texas by 2
Massey
Texas by 2
Nasty Number
Texas by 5.50.8 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas by 5.5opened Texas by 5now Texas by 4.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Texas by 5 to Texas by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM, Over -110
The Four
SP+ pace
62.16.1 pts over the market
Massey
604 pts over the market
Nasty Number
615 pts over the market
Over 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 5 points over the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61opened 56now 56Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
TOM+4.5 -11056 -110
Kalshi+4.555.5 -116 52¢-208 66¢
BetOnline.ag+5 -11056 -110
All 15 books
Tennessee spreadTotal (over)Tennessee MLTexas ML
TOM+4.5 -11056 -110
Kalshi+4.555.5 -116 52¢-208 66¢
Bally Bet+6 -11057.5 -113+185-230
BetOnline.ag+5 -11056 -110
betPARX+6 -11057.5 -113+185-230
BetRivers+6 -11257.5 -114+180-230
Courtside+5.5 -10857.5 -108+184-213
DraftKings+5.5 -11057.5 -110+180-218
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 52¢ -117 all-in55.5 52¢ -117 all-in35¢ +171 all-in66¢ -212 all-in
Fanatics+5 -10557 -110+180-220
FanDuel+5.5 -11057.5 -105+172-210
Fliff+5.5 -11557.5 -115+175-225
Hard Rock Bet+5.5 -10557.5 -110+175-225
LowVig.ag+5 -10656 -108
ReBet+5.5 -11157.5 -111+173-238

Marked: best for the Tennessee side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Texas -4.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Texas): TOM -4.5 at -110 (-3.4%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 51¢ (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.0%) · DraftKings or FanDuel -5.5 at -110 (-5.2%) · Fanatics -5 at -115 (-5.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Texas to win · -208 (66¢) at Kalshi
We make it 63 in 100 to win. The price says 68. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 63 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Texas to win): Kalshi or FanDuel -208 (-4.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 66¢ on the app (-212 all-in) (-4.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -218 (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 62 and Massey projects 60. That's 5.0 points over the market. Where, best first (Over): TOM 56 at -110 (3.7%) · Kalshi 55.5 at 52¢ (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (3.2%) · Fanatics 57 at -110 (1.1%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (0.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Over 56.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened +4.5, now +5.5 (the market moved 1.0 toward Texas).

Kalshi thin: Tennessee Volunteers +4.5, only $0 available; Under 55.5, only $46 available; Tennessee Volunteers ML, only $9 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.5 consensus.

TOM: total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas and Tennessee's last game
FPI+7.5+213
Sagarin+2.0+120
Massey+2.0+122
Market (12 books)+4.5+203
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.061.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTexas Longhorns -4.5-110+104-3.4%
MoneylineTexas Longhorns ML-208-171-4.5%
TotalOver 56.0-110-128shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Texas Longhorns since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +4.5 here against +5.5 consensus; total 56.0 here against 57.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

UCLA Bruins at Maryland TerrapinsUCLA at Maryland
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 57.5
should be 56.1 · getting 1.4 pts · was 51.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 57.5. SP+ and Massey say under by 7.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says UCLA by 2.5, the Nasty Number says UCLA by 1.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more UCLA than the bookmore Maryland →
Market
UCLA by 2.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI
Maryland by 0.5
Sagarin
Maryland by 1.5
Massey
Maryland by 1
Nasty Number
UCLA by 1.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number UCLA by 1.5opened UCLA by 2.5now UCLA by 2.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
49.48.1 pts under the market
Massey
51.46.1 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.47.1 pts under the market
Under 57.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 7.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 59now 57.5Sun

The total has come 1.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 1.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLUCLA ML
TOM+2.5 -11557.5 -105
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢57.5+109 46¢-136 56¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11559 -110
All 14 books
Maryland spreadTotal (over)Maryland MLUCLA ML
TOM+2.5 -11557.5 -105
Kalshi+1.5 -112 51¢57.5+109 46¢-136 56¢
Bally Bet+2.5 -10858.5 -108+115-139
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -11559 -110
betPARX+2.5 -10858.5 -108+115-139
BetRivers+2.5 -10858.5 -109+114-141
Caesars+2.5 -10958.5 -114+112-132
Courtside+2.5 -11058.5 -113+112-127
DraftKings+2.5 -11258.5 -115+110-130
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 52¢ -117 all-in57.5 54¢ -127 all-in46¢ +108 all-in56¢ -138 all-in
Fanatics+2 -10558.5 -115+110-130
FanDuel+1.5 -10558.5 -110+104-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 -11159 -108
ReBet+2.5 -11658.5 -114+105-139

Marked: best for the Maryland side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Maryland +2.5 · -109 at Caesars
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Maryland): Caesars +2.5 at -109 (-1.2%) · Fanatics +2 at -105 (-1.4%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -112 (-1.9%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -105 (-2.5%) · TOM +2.5 at -115 (-2.6%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Maryland to win · +112 at Caesars
We make it 46 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 46 cents fair, a play under 41. Where, best first (Maryland to win): Caesars +112 (-0.9%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +110 (-1.4%) · Kalshi 46¢ (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 46¢ on the app (+108 all-in) (-1.9%) · FanDuel +104 (-2.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Under 57.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 51. That's 7.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings or Fanatics 58.5 at -105 (4.7%) · Caesars 58.5 at -106 (4.5%) · FanDuel 58.5 at -110 (3.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.4%) · TOM or Kalshi 57.5 at -115 (-0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 57.5 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +1.5, now +2.5 (the market moved 0.9 toward UCLA).

Kalshi thin: Over 57.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUCLA by 1.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen UCLA and Maryland's last game
FPI-0.5-103
Sagarin-1.5-115
Massey-1.0-108
Market (11 books)+2.5+122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMaryland Terrapins +2.5-109-104-1.2%
MoneylineMaryland Terrapins ML+112+116-0.9%
TotalUnder 57.5-115-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward UCLA Bruins since 09-18 12:31; total has moved up 7.1.

TOM: total 57.5 here against 58.6 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Wisconsin Badgers at Penn State Nittany LionsWisconsin at Penn State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm
Under 46Moved our way · 1.5 pts
should be 43.1 · getting 2.9 pts · was 43.5
Sniff of Nasty · UnderBuck's case ›
Buck

A Little Nasty, Under 46.0. SP+ and Massey say under by 6.1 points, which is a little nasty, not a bet: the totals model is still proving itself. On the side, market says Penn State by 10, the Nasty Number says Penn State by 11.5. Nothing there.

The spread

← more Wisconsin than the bookmore Penn State →
Market
Penn State by 10TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI
Penn State by 15.5
Sagarin
Penn State by 10
Massey
Penn State by 17
Nasty Number
Penn State by 11.51.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Penn State by 11.5opened Penn State by 10now Penn State by 10Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM, Under -115
The Four
SP+ pace
38.17.9 pts under the market
Massey
41.64.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
39.96.1 pts under the market
Under 46 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.9opened 44.5now 46Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLWisconsin ML
TOM-10 -11546 -105
BetOnline.ag-10 -11844.5 -110
All 14 books
Penn State spreadTotal (over)Penn State MLWisconsin ML
TOM-10 -11546 -105
Bally Bet-9.5 -11344.5 -109-435+325
BetMGM-10 -11044.5 -108-450+340
BetOnline.ag-10 -11844.5 -110
betPARX-9.5 -11344.5 -109-435+325
BetRivers-9.5 -11444.5 -110-455+325
Courtside-9.5 -11344.5 -108-483+392
DraftKings-9.5 -11544.5 -110-500+380
DraftKings Predictions45.5 50¢ -108 all-in80¢ -456 all-in21¢ +335 all-in
Fanatics-10 -11044.5 -110-450+340
FanDuel-9.5 -12244.5 -110-410+315
Hard Rock Bet-10.5 -10544.5 -110-450+325
LowVig.ag-10 -11444.5 -108
ReBet-10.5 -10944.5 -114-490+320

Marked: best for the Penn State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Penn State -9.5 · -115 at DraftKings
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 53 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Penn State): DraftKings -9.5 at -115 (-1.2%) · BetMGM or Fanatics -10 at -110 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -9.5 at -122 (-2.7%) · TOM -10 at -115 (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
Penn State to win · -410 at FanDuel
We make it 77 in 100 to win, the price says 80, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Penn State to win): FanDuel -410 (-3.5%) · BetMGM, Fanatics or DraftKings Predictions -450 (80¢ on the app) (-4.9%) · DraftKings -500 (-6.4%).
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 38 and Massey projects 42. That's 6.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): TOM 46 at -115 (3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (2.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM or Fanatics 44.5 at -110 (1.0%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 46.0 · -115 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -11.5, now -10.0 (the market moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin). It crossed 10 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 44.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onPenn State by 11.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wisconsin and Penn State's last game
FPI-15.5-527
Sagarin-10.0-274
Massey-17.0-621
Market (12 books)-10.0-408
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.039.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPenn State Nittany Lions -9.5-115-110-1.2%
MoneylinePenn State Nittany Lions ML-410-333priced at 80 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-115-134shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.7 toward Wisconsin Badgers since 09-18 16:00; total has moved up 1.0.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 44.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Minnesota Golden Gophers at Washington HuskiesMinnesota at Washington
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 10:00pm
Minnesota +9
should be Minnesota +8.5 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +7.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Washington by 9, the Nasty Number says Washington by 8.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Minnesota than the bookmore Washington →
Market
Washington by 9TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI
Washington by 71.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Washington by 7.51.6 pts our side
Massey
Washington by 123 pts against us
Nasty Number
Washington by 8.50.3 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Minnesota. Massey at Washington by 12 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Washington by 8.5opened Washington by 9.5now Washington by 9Sun

The market has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Minnesota is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
46TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
40.85.2 pts under the market
Massey
45.40.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
43.12.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.1opened 46now 46Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-9 -11546 -110
Kalshi45.5 -112 51¢-381 78¢+296 24¢
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11046 -110
All 12 books
Washington spreadTotal (over)Washington MLMinnesota ML
TOM-9 -11546 -110
Kalshi45.5 -112 51¢-381 78¢+296 24¢
BetMGM-9 -11045.5 -108-350+280
BetOnline.ag-9.5 -11046 -110
Courtside-9.5 -10845.5 -108-397+329
DraftKings-9.5 -11045.5 -110-410+320
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 54¢ -127 all-in45.5 51¢ -113 all-in77¢ -376 all-in24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics-9.5 -11045.5 -110-375+290
FanDuel-8.5 -11045.5 -105-320+255
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11045.5 -110-375+275
LowVig.ag-9.5 -10646 -108
ReBet-9.5 -11445.5 -111-410+275

Marked: best for Minnesota, higher payout on each moneyline.

Minnesota +9.0 · -105 at TOM
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Minnesota): TOM +9 at -105 (3.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics +9.5 at -110 (2.8%) · BetMGM +9 at -110 (2.5%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -110 (2.0%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-0.7%).
A Little Nasty
Minnesota to win · +320 at DraftKings
We make it 29 in 100 to win, the price says 24, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Minnesota to win): DraftKings +320 (5.2%) · Kalshi 24¢ (3.7%) · Fanatics +290 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 24¢ on the app (+285 all-in) (3.0%) · BetMGM +280 (2.7%).
Off the band
the Under 46.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 46 at -110 (0.5%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or BetMGM 45.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · Kalshi 45.5 at 51¢ (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.5%) · FanDuel 45.5 at -115 (-2.0%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Minnesota +9.0 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 2 mph wind, 58°F.

Across the books: opened -7.5, now -9.5. The market has moved 1.8 away from Minnesota, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Washington Huskies -9.5, only $3 available; Minnesota Golden Gophers +9.5, only $3 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus.

TOM: total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onWashington by 8.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Minnesota and Washington's last game
FPI-7.0-207
Sagarin-7.5-213
Massey-12.0-350
Market (9 books)-9.0-339
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points46.043.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMinnesota Golden Gophers +9.0-105-121+3.6%
MoneylineMinnesota Golden Gophers ML+320+245priced at 24 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 46.0-110-112shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Washington Huskies since 09-18 14:31; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: spread -9.0 here against -9.3 consensus; total 46.0 here against 45.6 consensus.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Virginia Tech Hokies at Boston College EaglesVirginia Tech at Boston College
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Boston College +14.5
should be Boston College +14 · getting 0.5 pts at TOM · was +15
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Virginia Tech by 14.5, the Nasty Number says Virginia Tech by 14. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Virginia Tech than the bookmore Boston College →
Market
Virginia Tech by 14.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI
Virginia Tech by 150.7 pts against us
Sagarin
Virginia Tech by 113.5 pts our side
Massey
Virginia Tech by 311.6 pts our side
Nasty Number
Virginia Tech by 140.7 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Boston College. FPI at Virginia Tech by 15 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia Tech by 14opened Virginia Tech by 14now Virginia Tech by 14.5Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Boston College's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.5on the market
Massey
55.53 pts over the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
52.20.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.2opened 54now 52.5Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+14.5 -10552.5 -110
Kalshi+14.5 -121 53¢-660 86¢
BetOnline.ag+14 -10554 -110
All 14 books
Boston College spreadTotal (over)Boston College MLVirginia Tech ML
TOM+14.5 -10552.5 -110
Kalshi+14.5 -121 53¢-660 86¢
Bally Bet+14.5 -10953.5 -112+500-715
BetOnline.ag+14 -10554 -110
betPARX+14.5 -10953.5 -112+500-715
BetRivers+14.5 -11053.5 -113+440-715
Caesars+14 -10754 -110+475-675
Courtside+14 -10854.5 -108+508-646
DraftKings+14 -11054.5 -110+490-675
DraftKings Predictions+16.5 57¢ -144 all-in52.5 50¢ -108 all-in15¢ +488 all-in86¢ -733 all-in
Fanatics+14.5 -11554 +100+500-700
FanDuel+14.5 -11853.5 -115+490-710
LowVig.ag+14 -10154 -108
ReBet+14.5 -11453.5 -119+420-725

Marked: best for Boston College, higher payout on each moneyline.

Boston College +14.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Boston College): TOM +14.5 at -105 (2.2%) · Fanatics +14.5 at -115 (-0.0%) · Caesars +14 at -107 (-0.1%) · FanDuel +14.5 at -118 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +14 at -110 (-0.8%).
Not Nasty
Boston College to win · +495 at Fanatics
We make it 19 in 100 to win, the price says 17, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Boston College to win): Fanatics +500 (2.2%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or DraftKings Predictions +490 (15¢ on the app) (1.9%) · Caesars +475 (1.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 56. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.2%) · TOM 52.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Fanatics 54 at +100 (-2.1%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -115 (-4.2%) · Caesars 54 at -110 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Boston College +14.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 62°F, 39% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +14.5. The market has moved 0.9 toward Boston College, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Over 53.5, only $12 available; Under 53.5, only $3 available; Boston College Eagles ML, only $156 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia Tech by 1440% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Virginia Tech and Boston College's last game
FPI+15.0+505
Sagarin+11.0+314
Massey+3.0+134
Market (11 books)+14.5+616
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBoston College Eagles +14.5-105-115+2.2%
MoneylineBoston College Eagles ML+495+429priced at 17 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.9 toward Boston College Eagles since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 53.9 consensus.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Michigan State SpartansNebraska at Michigan State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 4:00pm
Michigan State +4.5
should be Michigan State +5 · giving up 0.5 pts at DraftKings Predictions
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Nebraska by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Nebraska by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Nebraska than the bookmore Michigan State →
Market
Nebraska by 5.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI
Nebraska by 7.52.2 pts against us
Sagarin
Nebraska by 0.54.8 pts our side
Massey
Nebraska by 32.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Nebraska by 50.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean Michigan State. FPI at Nebraska by 7.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

DraftKings Predictions's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Nebraska by 5opened Nebraska by 6.5now Nebraska by 5.5Sun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Michigan State is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
48.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.13.6 pts over the market
Massey
51.53 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.83.3 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.8opened 47.5now 48.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 47.5 to 48.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLNebraska ML
TOM+5.5 -11548.5 -110
BetOnline.ag+6 -11047.5 -110
All 13 books
Michigan State spreadTotal (over)Michigan State MLNebraska ML
TOM+5.5 -11548.5 -110
Bally Bet+4.5 -10948.5 -112+155-195
BetOnline.ag+6 -11047.5 -110
betPARX+4.5 -10948.5 -112+155-195
BetRivers+4.5 -11048.5 -113+155-195
Courtside+4.5 -10848.5 -108+163-188
DraftKings+4.5 -11048.5 -110+160-192
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 48¢ -100 all-in48.5 57¢ -144 all-in37¢ +156 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+5 -11048 -110+160-195
FanDuel+4.5 -10847.5 -115+158-192
Hard Rock Bet+4.5 -10548.5 -105+175-225
LowVig.ag+6 -10647.5 -108
ReBet+4.5 -11148.5 -109+169-232

Marked: best for Michigan State, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan State +4.5 · 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
Covers 52 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 50 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Michigan State): DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (1.7%) · Fanatics +5 at -110 (0.4%) · TOM +5.5 at -115 (0.1%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -108 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +4.5 at -110 (-0.6%).
Not Nasty
Michigan State to win · +160 at DraftKings
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 33. Where, best first (Michigan State to win): DraftKings or Fanatics +160 (-0.8%) · FanDuel +158 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 37¢ on the app (+156 all-in) (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 48.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 47.5 at -115 (1.0%) · Fanatics 48 at -110 (0.9%) · DraftKings or TOM 48.5 at -110 (-0.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-7.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Michigan State +4.5 · 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0. The market has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.8 consensus.

TOM: total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNebraska by 530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Nebraska and Michigan State's last game
FPI+7.5+221
Sagarin+0.5+107
Massey+3.0+133
Market (11 books)+5.5+182
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points48.551.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan State Spartans +4.5-100-108+1.7%
MoneylineMichigan State Spartans ML+160+165-0.8%
TotalOver 48.5-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Michigan State Spartans since 09-18 16:00; total has moved down 4.3.

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +4.8 consensus; total 48.5 here against 48.2 consensus.

Tulsa Golden Hurricane at Arkansas RazorbacksTulsa at Arkansas
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 7:00pm
Tulsa +7.5
should be Tulsa +7 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +9.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas by 7.5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas by 7. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Tulsa than the bookmore Arkansas →
Market
Arkansas by 7.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI
Arkansas by 1.55.8 pts our side
Sagarin
Arkansas by 102.6 pts against us
Massey
Arkansas by 17.510.2 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas by 70.3 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Tulsa. Sagarin at Arkansas by 10 and Massey at Arkansas by 17.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas by 7opened Arkansas by 9.5now Arkansas by 7.5Sun

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Tulsa is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
53TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
62.99.9 pts over the market
Massey
53.80.8 pts over the market
Nasty Number
58.45.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 5.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 58.4opened 52now 53Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 52 to 53. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7.5 -10553 -115
Kalshi-7.5 -107 50¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
BetOnline.ag-7 -11252 -110
All 14 books
Arkansas spreadTotal (over)Arkansas MLTulsa ML
TOM-7.5 -10553 -115
Kalshi-7.5 -107 50¢-290 73¢+229 29¢
Bally Bet-7.5 -11252.5 -112-335+255
BetOnline.ag-7 -11252 -110
betPARX-7.5 -11252.5 -112-335+255
BetRivers-7.5 -11352.5 -113-335+250
Caesars52.5 -107-310+245
Courtside-8.5 -10352.5 -106-278+236
DraftKings-8.5 -10552.5 -108-285+230
DraftKings Predictions-7.5 50¢ -108 all-in52.5 51¢ -113 all-in73¢ -300 all-in28¢ +233 all-in
Fanatics-8 -11052.5 -110-310+250
FanDuel-7.5 -11552.5 -110-320+255
LowVig.ag-7 -10852 -108
ReBet-8.5 -11152.5 -114-350+242

Marked: best for Tulsa, higher payout on each moneyline.

Tulsa +7.5 · -105 at FanDuel
Covers 56 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Worth a look. Where, best first (Tulsa): FanDuel +7.5 at -105 (5.1%) · Fanatics +8 at -110 (5.1%) · DraftKings +8.5 at -115 (4.8%) · TOM +7.5 at -115 (2.8%) · DraftKings Predictions +7.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
A Little Nasty
Tulsa to win · +250 at Fanatics
We make it 32 in 100 to win. The price says 29. That's value. On Kalshi that's 32 cents fair, a play under 28. This is a price bet, not a pick to win: Tulsa loses this more often than not. The payout is what's mispriced, so expect to lose most of these and come out ahead on the ones that hit. Where, best first (Tulsa to win): FanDuel +255 (4.2%) · Fanatics +250 (3.8%) · Caesars +245 (3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 28¢ on the app (+233 all-in) (2.4%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +230 (2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Same opinion, more variance
the Over 53.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 63 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 9 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Over): Caesars 52.5 at -107 (2.6%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -108 (2.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 52.5 at -110 (1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.3%) · TOM 53 at -115 (-0.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Tulsa +7.5 · -105 at FanDuel. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 78°F.

Across the books: opened -9.5, now -8.0. The market has moved 1.8 toward Tulsa, which is where we lean. That's the market agreeing with us, and the value shrinking.

Kalshi thin: Tulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5, only $15 available; Over 52.5, only $153 available; Under 52.5, only $26 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.8 consensus.

TOM: total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas by 730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Tulsa and Arkansas's last game
FPI-1.5-118
Sagarin-10.0-286
Massey-17.5-679
Market (11 books)-7.5-287
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points53.058.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTulsa Golden Hurricane +7.5-105-129+5.1%
MoneylineTulsa Golden Hurricane ML+250+209+3.8%
TotalOver 53.0-115-113shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward Tulsa Golden Hurricane since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -7.5 here against -7.8 consensus; total 53.0 here against 52.4 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Some ratings haven't rebuilt since the last games.

Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor BearsColorado at Baylor
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Colorado +9.5
should be Colorado +9.5 at TOM · was +6.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Baylor by 9.5, the Nasty Number says Baylor by 9.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Colorado than the bookmore Baylor →
Market
Baylor by 9.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI
Baylor by 111.5 pts against us
Sagarin
Baylor by 11.51.9 pts against us
Massey
Baylor by 63.7 pts our side
Nasty Number
Baylor by 9.50.1 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Colorado. FPI at Baylor by 11 and Sagarin at Baylor by 11.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 1 pt

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Baylor by 9.5opened Baylor by 8.5now Baylor by 9.5Sun

The market has come 1 point toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but Colorado is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
56.51.5 pts over the market
Massey
51.23.8 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.81.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.8opened 53.5now 55Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 53.5 to 55. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
TOM-9.5 -11555 -110
Kalshi-9.5 -107 50¢54.5-340 76¢
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -11053.5 -110
All 16 books
Baylor spreadTotal (over)Baylor MLColorado ML
TOM-9.5 -11555 -110
Kalshi-9.5 -107 50¢54.5-340 76¢
Bally Bet-8.5 -10852.5 -112-360+260
BetMGM-9.5 -10853.5 -108-325+260
BetOnline.ag-8.5 -11053.5 -110
betPARX-8.5 -10852.5 -112-360+260
BetRivers-8.5 -10952.5 -113-360+255
Caesars-8.5 -11253.5 -105-320+250
Courtside-8.5 -10853.5 -108-297+251
DraftKings-8.5 -11053.5 -110-305+245
DraftKings Predictions-9.5 50¢ -108 all-in55.5 52¢ -117 all-in76¢ -355 all-in24¢ +285 all-in
Fanatics-8.5 -11053 -110-330+260
FanDuel-8.5 -11552.5 -108-365+285
Hard Rock Bet-9.5 -11052.5 -110-350+260
LowVig.ag-8.5 -10653.5 -108
ReBet-9.5 -11452.5 -116-380+260

Marked: best for Colorado, higher payout on each moneyline.

Colorado +9.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Colorado): TOM +9.5 at -105 (2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +9.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (1.4%) · FanDuel +8.5 at -105 (1.3%) · BetMGM +9.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Kalshi +9.5 at 51¢ (0.7%).
Not Nasty
Colorado to win · +285 at FanDuel
We make it 27 in 100 to win. The price says 26. Not enough. On Kalshi that's 27 cents fair, a play under 23. Where, best first (Colorado to win): FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +285 (24¢ on the app) (1.5%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +260 (-0.3%) · Caesars +250 (-1.1%) · DraftKings +245 (-1.5%).
Not Nasty
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 57 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 55 at -110 (2.1%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (0.4%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (-1.8%) · Caesars 53.5 at -115 (-2.9%) · Fanatics 53 at -110 (-3.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Colorado +9.5 · -105 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 91°F.

Across the books: opened -6.5, now -8.5. The market has moved 2.2 away from Colorado, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it. It crossed 7 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Over 54.5, only $51 available; Colorado Buffaloes ML, only $311 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -8.7 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onBaylor by 9.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Colorado and Baylor's last game
FPI-11.0-313
Sagarin-11.5-327
Massey-6.0-181
Market (13 books)-9.5-306
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.053.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadColorado Buffaloes +9.5-105-115+2.2%
MoneylineColorado Buffaloes ML+285+264+1.5%
TotalUnder 55.0-110-120shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 2.2 toward Baylor Bears since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 0.5.

TOM: spread -9.5 here against -8.7 consensus; total 55.0 here against 53.0 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

New Mexico Lobos at New Mexico State AggiesNew Mexico at New Mexico State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
New Mexico State +14
should be New Mexico State +13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says New Mexico by 14, the Nasty Number says New Mexico by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more New Mexico than the bookmore New Mexico State →
Market
New Mexico by 14TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI
New Mexico by 15.51.3 pts against us
Sagarin
New Mexico by 113.1 pts our side
Massey
New Mexico by 112.8 pts our side
Nasty Number
New Mexico by 13.50.6 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean New Mexico State. FPI at New Mexico by 15.5 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number New Mexico by 13.5opened New Mexico by 13.5now New Mexico by 14Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in New Mexico State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
50.71.7 pts over the market
Massey
55.36.3 pts over the market
Nasty Number
534 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53opened 50now 49Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 50 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLNew Mexico ML
TOM+14 -11049 -105
BetOnline.ag+13.5 +10050 -110
All 13 books
New Mexico State spreadTotal (over)New Mexico State MLNew Mexico ML
TOM+14 -11049 -105
Bally Bet+13.5 -11050.5 -113+400-560
BetOnline.ag+13.5 +10050 -110
betPARX+13.5 -11050.5 -113+400-560
BetRivers+13.5 -11250.5 -114+370-560
Caesars+13.5 -10349.5 -117+450-625
Courtside+13.5 -10849.5 -108+487-623
DraftKings+13.5 -11049.5 -110+470-650
DraftKings Predictions+13.5 49¢ -104 all-in48.5 59¢ -157 all-in17¢ +426 all-in85¢ -670 all-in
Fanatics+13.5 -10550 -110+475-650
FanDuel+13.5 -10450.5 -110+460-650
LowVig.ag+13.5 +10450 -108
ReBet+13.5 -10550.5 -111+410-676

Marked: best for New Mexico State, higher payout on each moneyline.

New Mexico State +14.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (New Mexico State): TOM +14 at -110 (0.2%) · Caesars +13.5 at -103 (-0.2%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +13.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-0.4%) · Fanatics +13.5 at -105 (-0.7%) · DraftKings +13.5 at -110 (-1.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
New Mexico State to win · +455 at FanDuel
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 18, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (New Mexico State to win): Fanatics or DraftKings +475 (2.2%) · FanDuel +460 (1.7%) · Caesars +450 (1.4%) · DraftKings Predictions 17¢ on the app (+426 all-in) (0.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 49.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -105 (3.2%) · DraftKings 49.5 at -110 (0.7%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-0.5%) · Caesars 49.5 at -117 (-0.9%) · FanDuel 50.5 at -110 (-1.8%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 3 mph wind, 81°F.

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 50.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNew Mexico by 13.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen New Mexico's last game
FPI+15.5+508
Sagarin+11.0+311
Massey+11.0+319
Market (11 books)+14.0+546
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.053.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadNew Mexico State Aggies +14.0-110-111+0.2%
MoneylineNew Mexico State Aggies ML+455+412priced at 18 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.0-105-119shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread +14.0 here against +13.5 consensus; total 49.0 here against 50.1 consensus.

Oregon Ducks at USC TrojansOregon at USC
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
USC +3
should be USC +2 · getting 1 pt at TOM · was -2
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon by 3, the Nasty Number says Oregon by 2. 0.9 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Oregon than the bookmore USC →
Market
Oregon by 3TOM, -108
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI
Oregon by 1.51.4 pts our side
Sagarin
Oregon by 3on the market
Massey
Oregon by 3on the market
Nasty Number
Oregon by 20.9 pts off the market
All 3 systems lean USC. The Nasty Number is 0.9 points off the book; it takes 3% edge after the price for a pick with the full blend, more with fewer systems, and this one is under it. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon by 2opened Oregon by 2.5now Oregon by 3Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in USC's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
62.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
60.61.9 pts under the market
Massey
62.5on the market
Nasty Number
61.51 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 61.5opened 61.5now 62.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 61.5 to 62.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3 -10862.5 -110
Kalshi+1.562.5 -112 51¢-143 57¢
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10161.5 -110
All 17 books
USC spreadTotal (over)USC MLOregon ML
TOM+3 -10862.5 -110
Kalshi+1.562.5 -112 51¢-143 57¢
Bally Bet+2 -11362 -113+105-127
BetMGM+2.5 -10862.5 -102+105-130
BetOnline.ag+2.5 -10161.5 -110
betPARX+2 -11362 -113+105-127
BetRivers+2 -11462 -114+104-129
Caesars+2.5 -10762.5 -110+103-122
Courtside+1.5 -10362.5 -108+104-120
DraftKings+1.5 -10562.5 -110+102-122
DraftKings Predictions+2.5 49¢ -104 all-in61.5 54¢ -127 all-in44¢ +117 all-in57¢ -144 all-in
Fanatics+2.5 -11062 -110+105-125
FanDuel+2.5 -11062.5 -110+106-128
Fliff+2.5 -11562.5 -115+100-130
Hard Rock Bet+1.5 -11062.5 -110+105-125
LowVig.ag+2.5 +10361.5 -108
ReBet+1.5 -11162.5 -111-102-130

Marked: best for USC, higher payout on each moneyline.

USC +3.0 · -108 at TOM
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (USC): TOM +3 at -108 (1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-1.7%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-2.4%) · BetMGM +2.5 at -108 (-2.6%) · FanDuel or Fanatics +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
USC to win · 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 46. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (USC to win): DraftKings Predictions 44¢ on the app (+117 all-in) (-1.4%) · FanDuel +106 (-3.9%) · BetMGM or Fanatics +105 (-4.2%) · Caesars +103 (-4.6%) · DraftKings +102 (-4.9%).
Not Nasty
the Under 62.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 61 and Massey projects 62. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Caesars 62.5 at -109 (-0.9%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or TOM 62.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 61.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.4%) · BetMGM 62.5 at -115 (-2.3%) · Fanatics 62 at -110 (-2.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is USC +3.0 · -108 at TOM. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 84°F.

Across the books: opened -2.0, now +2.0. The market has moved 3.9 away from USC, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: USC Trojans +1.5, only $0 available; USC Trojans ML, only $318 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.1 consensus.

TOM: total 62.5 here against 62.2 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOregon by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon and USC's last game
FPI+1.5+117
Sagarin+3.0+132
Massey+3.0+135
Market (14 books)+3.0+115
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points62.561.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUSC Trojans +3.0-108-113+1.2%
MoneylineUSC Trojans ML+117+124-1.4%
TotalUnder 62.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 3.9 toward Oregon Ducks since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 0.7.

TOM: spread +3.0 here against +2.1 consensus; total 62.5 here against 62.2 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Kennesaw State Owls at Arkansas State Red WolvesKennesaw State at Arkansas State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
Kennesaw State +5
should be Kennesaw State +4.5 · getting 0.5 pts at Fanatics
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Arkansas State by 5, the Nasty Number says Arkansas State by 4.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Kennesaw State than the bookmore Arkansas State →
Market
Arkansas State by 5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI
Arkansas State by 31.9 pts our side
Sagarin
Arkansas State by 5.50.8 pts against us
Massey
Arkansas State by 7.52.9 pts against us
Nasty Number
Arkansas State by 4.50.2 pts off the market
1 of 3 systems lean Kennesaw State. Sagarin at Arkansas State by 5.5 and Massey at Arkansas State by 7.5 are the holdouts, and 2 systems across the market are why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekbetter now, 0.5 pts

Fanatics's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Arkansas State by 4.5opened Arkansas State by 4.5now Arkansas State by 5Sun

The line has moved 0.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. That's 0.5 points more in Kennesaw State's favor. It's a better bet now than it was.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
55.71.2 pts over the market
Massey
54.3on the market
Nasty Number
550.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.
Kennesaw State +5.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (Kennesaw State): Fanatics +5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings +5.5 at -115 (0.8%) · BetMGM +4.5 at -108 (0.6%) · FanDuel +4.5 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +4.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Kennesaw State to win · 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 38 in 100 to win. The price says 38. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 38 cents fair, a play under 34. Where, best first (Kennesaw State to win): DraftKings Predictions 36¢ on the app (+163 all-in) (0.4%) · FanDuel or Caesars +158 (-0.4%) · Fanatics or BetMGM +155 (-0.8%) · DraftKings +150 (-1.6%).
Not Nasty
the Over 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 53.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.0%) · Caesars 54.5 at -107 (-1.3%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -108 (-1.5%) · FanDuel, Fanatics or DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (-2.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is Kennesaw State +5.0 · -110 at Fanatics. Not a Nasty Pick, just the better side.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail
We settle onArkansas State by 4.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Kennesaw State and Arkansas State's last game
FPI-3.0-135
Sagarin-5.5-178
Massey-7.5-221
Market (12 books)-5.0-175
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.555.0
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadKennesaw State Owls +5.0-110-115+1.1%
MoneylineKennesaw State Owls ML+163+161+0.4%
TotalOver 54.5-110-102shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

South Carolina Gamecocks at Alabama Crimson TideSouth Carolina at Alabama
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:00pm
South Carolina +12.5
should be South Carolina +12 · getting 0.5 pts at FanDuel · was +11
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Alabama by 12.5, the Nasty Number says Alabama by 12. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more South Carolina than the bookmore Alabama →
Market
Alabama by 12.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI
Alabama by 12.5on the market
Sagarin
Alabama by 120.6 pts our side
Massey
Alabama by 130.4 pts against us
Nasty Number
Alabama by 120.5 pts off the market
2 of 3 systems lean South Carolina. Massey at Alabama by 13 is the holdout, and one system across the market is why there's no bet here. SP+ hasn't seen the last games yet, so this could change.

The spread this weekshrinking, 2 pts

FanDuel's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Alabama by 12opened Alabama by 10.5now Alabama by 12.5FriSatSun

The market has come 2 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, but South Carolina is a worse bet than it was. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
41.313.7 pts under the market
Massey
51.43.6 pts under the market
Nasty Number
46.48.6 pts under the market
Under 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 8.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekbetter now, 1.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 46.4opened 53.5now 55Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points away from the Nasty Number since it opened. For an Under, that's 1.5 points more room. It's a better bet now than it was.

Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11055 -110
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢-524 83¢+373 20¢
BetOnline.ag-12 -11053.5 -115
All 15 books
Alabama spreadTotal (over)Alabama MLSouth Carolina ML
TOM-12.5 -11055 -110
Kalshi54.5 -112 51¢-524 83¢+373 20¢
Bally Bet-11.5 -11253.5 -110-530+390
BetOnline.ag-12 -11053.5 -115
betPARX-11.5 -11253.5 -110-530+390
BetRivers-11.5 -11353.5 -112-530+370
Courtside-11.5 -10853.5 -113-440+360
DraftKings-11.5 -11053.5 -115-455+350
DraftKings Predictions-12.5 57¢ -144 all-in82¢ -526 all-in19¢ +376 all-in
Fanatics-12 -11053.5 -110-475+360
FanDuel-12.5 -11054.5 -114-520+385
Fliff-11.5 -12053.5 -120-515+365
Hard Rock Bet-11.5 -11052.5 -110-500+350
LowVig.ag-12 -10653.5 -114
ReBet-11.5 -11452.5 -114-526+330

Marked: best for South Carolina, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Carolina +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Too thin for the price. Where, best first (South Carolina): FanDuel or TOM +12.5 at -110 (0.8%) · Fanatics +12 at -110 (0.2%) · DraftKings +11.5 at -110 (-0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions +12.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.9%).
Not Nasty
South Carolina to win · +367
We make it 22 in 100 to win, the price says 21, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Carolina to win): FanDuel +385 (1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions or Kalshi +376 (19¢ on the app) (1.3%) · Fanatics +360 (0.6%) · DraftKings +350 (0.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 51. The two sources disagree by 10 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): TOM 55 at -110 (7.0%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -106 (6.5%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (5.2%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -105 (4.3%) · Fanatics 53.5 at -110 (3.1%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is South Carolina +12.5 · -110 at FanDuel. A coin flip, the better half of it.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 81°F.

Across the books: opened -11.0, now -11.5. The market has moved 0.7 away from South Carolina, so the number is better than it was, but a move against the ratings usually means news. Check the injury note before taking it.

Kalshi thin: Alabama Crimson Tide -13.5, only $1 available; South Carolina Gamecocks +13.5, only $39 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.7 consensus.

TOM: total 55.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onAlabama by 1230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Carolina and Alabama's last game
FPI-12.5-372
Sagarin-12.0-346
Massey-13.0-388
Market (12 books)-12.5-448
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.046.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Carolina Gamecocks +12.5-110-114+0.8%
MoneylineSouth Carolina Gamecocks ML+367+348priced at 21 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-110-146shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward Alabama Crimson Tide since 09-18 18:00; total has moved up 3.9.

TOM: spread -12.5 here against -11.7 consensus; total 55.0 here against 53.4 consensus.

James Madison Dukes at Old Dominion MonarchsJames Madison at Old Dominion
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
James Madison -4.5
should be James Madison -5.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says James Madison by 4.5, the Nasty Number says James Madison by 5.5. 1 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more James Madison than the bookmore Old Dominion →
Market
James Madison by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI
James Madison by 8.5
Sagarin
James Madison by 4.5
Massey
James Madison by 7
Nasty Number
James Madison by 5.51 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number James Madison by 5.5opened James Madison by 4.5now James Madison by 4.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.40.6 pts under the market
Massey
54.17.1 pts over the market
Weather
-1.815 mph wind, takes 1.8 points off
Nasty Number
48.51.5 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.5opened 49.5now 47Sun

The total has moved 2.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 47. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+4.5 -11047 -115
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢46.5 -161 60¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11049.5 -110
All 15 books
Old Dominion spreadTotal (over)Old Dominion MLJames Madison ML
TOM+4.5 -11047 -115
Kalshi+5.5 -116 52¢46.5 -161 60¢+166 36¢-200 65¢
Bally Bet+5 -11249.5 -109+155-195
BetMGM+4.5 -108+155-185
BetOnline.ag+4.5 -11049.5 -110
betPARX+5 -11249.5 -109+155-195
BetRivers+5 -11349.5 -110+155-195
Caesars+4.5 -11048 -110+155-190
Courtside+4.5 -10850.5 -108+148-171
DraftKings+4.5 -11050.5 -110+145-175
DraftKings Predictions+4.5 50¢ -108 all-in48.5 59¢ -157 all-in36¢ +163 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+4.5 -11049.5 -110+155-190
FanDuel+4.5 -11049.5 -110+160-194
LowVig.ag+4.5 -10649.5 -108
ReBet+4.5 -11449.5 -116+164-224

Marked: best for the Old Dominion side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

James Madison -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 50 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (James Madison): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -4.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.3%) · Kalshi -5.5 at 52¢ (-5.8%).
Not Nasty
James Madison to win · -175 at DraftKings
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 64. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (James Madison to win): DraftKings -175 (0.1%) · BetMGM -185 (-1.2%) · Fanatics or Caesars -190 (-1.8%) · FanDuel -194 (-2.3%) · Kalshi 65¢ (-2.9%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 54. Weather takes 1.8 off. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 47 at -115 (2.3%) · Caesars 48 at -110 (0.8%) · FanDuel or Fanatics 49.5 at -110 (-3.0%) · Kalshi 46.5 at 60¢ (-4.8%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-5.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 15 mph wind, 69°F. Total pulled down 1.8 for it.

Across the books: opened +3.0, now +4.5 (the market moved 1.8 toward James Madison). It crossed 3 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onJames Madison by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen James Madison and Old Dominion's last game
FPI+8.5+237
Sagarin+4.5+162
Massey+7.0+203
Market (12 books)+4.5+174
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.048.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
MoneylineJames Madison Dukes ML-175-176+0.1%
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -4.5-110+101-2.7%
TotalOver 47.0-115-126shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.8 toward James Madison Dukes since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.0.

TOM: total 47.0 here against 49.5 consensus.

South Florida Bulls at Bowling Green FalconsSouth Florida at Bowling Green
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
South Florida -17.5
should be South Florida -17.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says South Florida by 17.5.

The spread

← more South Florida than the bookmore Bowling Green →
Market
South Florida by 17.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI
South Florida by 22
Sagarin
South Florida by 14.5
Massey
South Florida by 17
Nasty Number
South Florida by 17.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number South Florida by 17.5opened South Florida by 16.5now South Florida by 17.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from South Florida by 16.5 to South Florida by 17.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
50TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.92.1 pts under the market
Massey
49.60.4 pts under the market
Nasty Number
48.81.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.8opened 51now 50Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 51 to 50. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
TOM+17.5 -11050 -110
Kalshi+17.5 -112 51¢48.5 -148 58¢+685 12¢-869 89¢
BetOnline.ag+16.5 -10551 -110
All 14 books
Bowling Green spreadTotal (over)Bowling Green MLSouth Florida ML
TOM+17.5 -11050 -110
Kalshi+17.5 -112 51¢48.5 -148 58¢+685 12¢-869 89¢
Bally Bet+16.5 -11051.5 -113
BetOnline.ag+16.5 -10551 -110
betPARX+16.5 -11051.5 -113
BetRivers+16.5 -11251.5 -114
Caesars+16.5 -10851.5 -105+600-950
Courtside+16.5 -10851.5 -108+706-987
DraftKings+16.5 -11051.5 -110+675-1050
DraftKings Predictions+17.5 50¢ -108 all-in50.5 59¢ -157 all-in12¢ +614 all-in89¢ -1011 all-in
Fanatics+16.5 -11051.5 -105+600-900
FanDuel+16.5 -11551.5 -110+580-880
LowVig.ag+16.5 -10151 -108
ReBet+16.5 -10951.5 -114+500-952

Marked: best for the Bowling Green side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Bowling Green +17.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Bowling Green): DraftKings Predictions +17.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-1.3%) · TOM +17.5 at -110 (-1.7%) · Kalshi +17.5 at 51¢ (-2.0%) · Caesars +16.5 at -108 (-5.3%) · Fanatics or DraftKings +16.5 at -110 (-5.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Bowling Green to win · +636
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 14, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Bowling Green to win): Kalshi or DraftKings +685 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 12¢ on the app (+614 all-in) (-0.7%) · Fanatics or Caesars +600 (-1.0%) · FanDuel +580 (-1.4%).
Off the band
the Over 50.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 48 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 50 at -110 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or Caesars 51.5 at -105 (-3.4%) · Kalshi 48.5 at 58¢ (-4.4%) · FanDuel or DraftKings 51.5 at -110 (-4.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 50.5 at 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-10.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened +15.0, now +16.5 (the market moved 1.3 toward South Florida).

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +16.5 consensus.

TOM: total 50.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSouth Florida by 17.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Florida and Bowling Green's last game
FPI+22.0+1148
Sagarin+14.5+467
Massey+17.0+616
Market (11 books)+17.5+827
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points50.048.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadBowling Green Falcons +17.5-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineBowling Green Falcons ML+636+652priced at 14 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 50.0-110-107shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward South Florida Bulls since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 2.1.

TOM: spread +17.5 here against +16.5 consensus; total 50.0 here against 51.4 consensus.

The line is +17.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Houston Cougars at Georgia Southern EaglesHouston at Georgia Southern
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Georgia Southern +18.5
should be Georgia Southern +18 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Houston by 18.5.

The spread

← more Houston than the bookmore Georgia Southern →
Market
Houston by 18.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI
Houston by 16.5
Sagarin
Houston by 16
Massey
Houston by 14.5
Nasty Number
Houston by 180.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Houston by 18opened Houston by 19now Houston by 18.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Houston by 19 to Houston by 18.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
55.60.6 pts over the market
Massey
53.51.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.50.5 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.5 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.5opened 55now 55Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
TOM+18.5 -11055 -110
Kalshi+17.5 -121 53¢54.5 -112 51¢-1236 92¢
BetOnline.ag+19 -11055 -110
All 15 books
Georgia Southern spreadTotal (over)Georgia Southern MLHouston ML
TOM+18.5 -11055 -110
Kalshi+17.5 -121 53¢54.5 -112 51¢-1236 92¢
Bally Bet+18.5 -10954 -113+700-1250
BetMGM+19 -108+850-1200
BetOnline.ag+19 -11055 -110
betPARX+18.5 -10954 -113+700-1250
BetRivers+18.5 -11054 -114+700-1250
Caesars55.5 -105+850-1450
Courtside+19.5 -10855.5 -108+953-1467
DraftKings+19.5 -11055.5 -110+900-1600
DraftKings Predictions+17.5 53¢ -122 all-in54.5 51¢ -113 all-in+809 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in
Fanatics+19 -11055 -110+750-1200
FanDuel+18.5 -11054.5 -110+740-1250
LowVig.ag+19 -10655 -108
ReBet+19.5 -10954.5 -119+600-1299

Marked: best for the Georgia Southern side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Southern +19.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Georgia Southern): DraftKings +19.5 at -110 (1.0%) · BetMGM +19 at -108 (0.7%) · Fanatics +19 at -110 (0.3%) · FanDuel or TOM +18.5 at -110 (-0.6%) · Kalshi +17.5 at 53¢ (-5.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Georgia Southern to win · +900 at DraftKings
We make it 13 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Georgia Southern to win): DraftKings +900 (2.7%) · Caesars or BetMGM +850 (2.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 9¢ on the app (+809 all-in) (1.7%) · Fanatics or FanDuel +750 (0.9%).
Off the band
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 56 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Caesars 55.5 at -115 (-1.4%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (-1.6%) · FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-2.8%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (-3.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 76°F.

Across the books: opened +20.5, now +19.0 (the market moved 1.5 toward Georgia Southern).

Kalshi thin: Houston Cougars -17.5, only $156 available; Georgia Southern Eagles ML, only $110 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread +18.5 here against +19.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onHouston by 1840% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Houston and Georgia Southern's last game
FPI+16.5+579
Sagarin+16.0+542
Massey+14.5+459
Market (12 books)+18.5+1122
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.054.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Southern Eagles +19.5-110-115+1.0%
MoneylineGeorgia Southern Eagles ML+900+689priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 55.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Georgia Southern Eagles since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread +18.5 here against +19.0 consensus.

The line is +18.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Ohio State BuckeyesIllinois at Ohio State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Illinois +27
should be Illinois +26 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Ohio State by 27.

The spread

← more Illinois than the bookmore Ohio State →
Market
Ohio State by 27TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI
Ohio State by 24.5
Sagarin
Ohio State by 20.5
Massey
Ohio State by 21
Nasty Number
Ohio State by 261.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Ohio State by 26opened Ohio State by 27now Ohio State by 27Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.41.6 pts under the market
Massey
504 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.22.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 53now 54Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 53 to 54. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLIllinois ML
TOM-27 -11054 -115
BetOnline.ag-27.5 -11053 -110
All 13 books
Ohio State spreadTotal (over)Ohio State MLIllinois ML
TOM-27 -11054 -115
Bally Bet-26.5 -11053.5 -112+1500
BetMGM-27.5 -10853.5 -108+2000
BetOnline.ag-27.5 -11053 -110
betPARX-26.5 -11053.5 -112+1500
BetRivers-26.5 -11253.5 -113+1400
Courtside-27.5 -10853.5 -108+2246
DraftKings-27.5 -11053.5 -110+2000
DraftKings Predictions-27.5 51¢ -113 all-in52.5 50¢ -108 all-in+1567 all-in
Fanatics-27.5 -11053 -110+2000
FanDuel-26.5 -11552.5 -115+1600
LowVig.ag-27.5 -10653 -108
ReBet-27.5 -11653.5 -114+1000

Marked: best for the Ohio State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Illinois +27.5 · 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Illinois): DraftKings Predictions +27.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-0.6%) · DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +27.5 at -110 (-0.9%) · TOM +27 at -110 (-2.1%) · FanDuel +26.5 at -105 (-2.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Illinois to win · +1779
We make it 5 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Illinois to win): DraftKings, BetMGM or Fanatics +2000 (-0.0%) · FanDuel or DraftKings Predictions +1600 (4¢ on the app) (-1.2%).
Off the band
the Under 54.0 · -105 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 54 at -105 (2.2%) · DraftKings or BetMGM 53.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Fanatics 53 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel 52.5 at -105 (-1.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 52.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 65°F.

Across the books: opened -26.5, now -27.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Ohio State).

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.3 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onOhio State by 2630% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Illinois and Ohio State's last game
FPI-24.5-1644
Sagarin-20.5-957
Massey-21.0-1043
Market (11 books)-27.0-3891
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.051.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini +27.5-108-106-0.6%
MoneylineIllinois Fighting Illini ML+1779+2016priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 54.0-105-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Ohio State Buckeyes since 09-18 11:02; total has moved up 0.8.

TOM: total 54.0 here against 53.3 consensus.

The line is -27.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Wake Forest Demon Deacons at Louisville CardinalsWake Forest at Louisville
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Louisville -13
should be Louisville -13 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Louisville by 13, the Nasty Number says Louisville by 13. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Wake Forest than the bookmore Louisville →
Market
Louisville by 13TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI
Louisville by 11.5
Sagarin
Louisville by 12.5
Massey
Louisville by 11.5
Nasty Number
Louisville by 130.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Louisville by 13opened Louisville by 13.5now Louisville by 13Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Louisville by 13.5 to Louisville by 13. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
47.210.8 pts under the market
Massey
60.22.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
53.74.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.7opened 58now 58Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
TOM-13 -11058 -110
Kalshi-13.557.5 -121 53¢
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -11058 -110
All 15 books
Louisville spreadTotal (over)Louisville MLWake Forest ML
TOM-13 -11058 -110
Kalshi-13.557.5 -121 53¢
Bally Bet-13.5 -11058 -112-625+450
BetOnline.ag-13.5 -11058 -110
betPARX-13.5 -11058 -112-625+450
BetRivers-13.5 -11258 -113-625+425
Caesars-13.5 -11257.5 -118-590+425
Courtside-13.5 -10858.5 -108-515+413
DraftKings-13.5 -11058.5 -110-535+400
DraftKings Predictions-13.5 50¢ -108 all-in57.5 52¢ -117 all-in83¢ -566 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-13.5 -11058 -110-550+410
FanDuel-13.5 -11857.5 -115-650+460
Hard Rock Bet-13.5 -11558.5 -105-600+400
LowVig.ag-13.5 -10658 -108
ReBet-13.5 -11958.5 -109-599+370

Marked: best for the Louisville side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Louisville -13.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Louisville): TOM -13 at -110 (-3.3%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 50¢ on the app (-108 all-in) (-3.6%) · DraftKings or Fanatics -13.5 at -110 (-3.9%) · Caesars -13.5 at -112 (-4.4%) · FanDuel -13.5 at -118 (-5.7%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Louisville to win · -535 at DraftKings
We make it 80 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Louisville to win): DraftKings -535 (-4.5%) · Fanatics -550 (-4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 83¢ on the app (-566 all-in) (-5.2%) · Caesars -590 (-5.7%) · FanDuel -650 (-6.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 58.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 60. The two sources disagree by 13 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): DraftKings 58.5 at -110 (1.0%) · Caesars 57.5 at -104 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 58 at -110 (-0.2%) · FanDuel 57.5 at -105 (-0.4%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 50¢ (-0.9%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 69°F.

Kalshi thin: Louisville Cardinals -13.5, only $59 available; Louisville Cardinals ML, only $154 available; Wake Forest Demon Deacons ML, only $164 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onLouisville by 1321% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Wake Forest and Louisville's last game
FPI-11.5-329
Sagarin-12.5-377
Massey-11.5-327
Market (12 books)-13.0-525
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.053.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadLouisville Cardinals -13.0-110+104-3.3%
MoneylineLouisville Cardinals ML-535-395priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 58.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -13.0 here against -13.5 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles at Tulane Green WaveSouthern Miss at Tulane
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:00am
Southern Miss +19.5
should be Southern Miss +18 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Tulane by 19.5.

The spread

← more Southern Miss than the bookmore Tulane →
Market
Tulane by 19.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI
Tulane by 15
Sagarin
Tulane by 20.5
Massey
Tulane by 17.5
Nasty Number
Tulane by 181.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Tulane by 18opened Tulane by 19now Tulane by 19.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Tulane by 19 to Tulane by 19.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
52.3on the market
Massey
48.63.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
50.42.1 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 54now 52.5Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 54 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-19.5 -11052.5 -110
Kalshi-18.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-1087 91¢+841 10¢
BetOnline.ag-19 -11054 -110
All 13 books
Tulane spreadTotal (over)Tulane MLSouthern Miss ML
TOM-19.5 -11052.5 -110
Kalshi-18.5 -116 52¢52.5 -116 52¢-1087 91¢+841 10¢
Bally Bet-18.5 -10954.5 -113-1250+700
BetOnline.ag-19 -11054 -110
betPARX-18.5 -10954.5 -113-1250+700
BetRivers-18.5 -11054.5 -114-1250+700
Caesars53.5 -117
Courtside-18.5 -10853.5 -108-1339+897
DraftKings-18.5 -11053.5 -110-1450+850
Fanatics-19 -11054 -110-1300+800
FanDuel-20.5 -11054.5 -110-2000+980
LowVig.ag-19 -10654 -108
ReBet-20.5 -10954.5 -111-1299+610

Marked: best for the Tulane side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Southern Miss +20.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 55 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Southern Miss): FanDuel +20.5 at -110 (2.6%) · TOM +19.5 at -110 (0.6%) · Fanatics +19 at -110 (-0.1%) · DraftKings +18.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Kalshi +18.5 at 52¢ (-2.3%).
Blowout line
Southern Miss to win · +980 at FanDuel
We make it 12 in 100 to win, the price says 9, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Southern Miss to win): FanDuel +980 (3.2%) · DraftKings or Kalshi +850 (1.9%) · Fanatics +800 (1.4%).
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52.5 at -110 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 52.5 at 52¢ (-3.4%) · DraftKings 53.5 at -110 (-4.6%) · Fanatics 54 at -110 (-5.9%) · Caesars 53.5 at -117 (-6.1%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 83°F.

Across the books: opened -18.5, now -19.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Tulane).

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.1 consensus.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.1 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTulane by 1840% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Southern Miss and Tulane's last game
FPI-15.0-498
Sagarin-20.5-947
Massey-17.5-667
Market (11 books)-19.5-1156
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles +20.5-110-122+2.6%
MoneylineSouthern Mississippi Golden Eagles ML+980+702priced at 9 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Tulane Green Wave since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -19.5 here against -19.1 consensus; total 52.5 here against 54.1 consensus.

The line is -19.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

South Alabama Jaguars at Kentucky WildcatsSouth Alabama at Kentucky
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 11:45am
South Alabama +20.5
should be South Alabama +19.5 · getting 1 pt · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Kentucky by 20.5.

The spread

← more South Alabama than the bookmore Kentucky →
Market
Kentucky by 20.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI
Kentucky by 18
Sagarin
Kentucky by 25.5
Massey
Kentucky by 15.5
Nasty Number
Kentucky by 19.51.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Kentucky by 19.5opened Kentucky by 21now Kentucky by 20.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Kentucky by 21 to Kentucky by 20.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
53.72.3 pts under the market
Massey
53.12.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
53.42.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 53.4opened 56now 56Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-20.5 -11556 -110
Kalshi-20.5 -107 50¢54.5 -116 52¢
BetOnline.ag-21 -10556 -110
All 15 books
Kentucky spreadTotal (over)Kentucky MLSouth Alabama ML
TOM-20.5 -11556 -110
Kalshi-20.5 -107 50¢54.5 -116 52¢
Bally Bet-19.5 -11056 -112-1430+800
BetOnline.ag-21 -10556 -110
betPARX-19.5 -11056 -112-1430+800
BetRivers-19.5 -11256 -113-1430+750
Caesars55.5 -114-1700+900
Courtside-19.5 -10855.5 -108-1509+1008
DraftKings-19.5 -11055.5 -110-1650+950
DraftKings Predictions-20.5 50¢ -108 all-in93¢ -1901 all-in+900 all-in
Fanatics-20.5 -11056 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-19.5 -12056.5 -105-1800+920
Hard Rock Bet-20.5 -11055.5 -115-1200+750
LowVig.ag-21 -10156 -108
ReBet-20.5 -11656.5 -111-1408+620

Marked: best for the Kentucky side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

South Alabama +20.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (South Alabama): TOM +20.5 at -105 (-0.3%) · Fanatics +20.5 at -110 (-1.5%) · FanDuel +19.5 at -102 (-1.5%) · Kalshi +20.5 at 52¢ (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-3.0%).
Blowout line
South Alabama to win · +900 at FanDuel
We make it 11 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (South Alabama to win): DraftKings +950 (1.1%) · FanDuel, Fanatics, Caesars or DraftKings Predictions +920 (8¢ on the app) (0.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 54 and Massey projects 53. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 56.5 at -115 (-0.2%) · Fanatics or TOM 56 at -110 (-0.3%) · Caesars 55.5 at -106 (-0.6%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-1.6%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Kalshi thin: Kentucky Wildcats ML, only $181 available; South Alabama Jaguars ML, only $16 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.0 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onKentucky by 19.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen South Alabama and Kentucky's last game
FPI-18.0-704
Sagarin-25.5-1919
Massey-15.5-531
Market (12 books)-20.5-1262
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.053.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSouth Alabama Jaguars +20.5-105-104-0.3%
MoneylineSouth Alabama Jaguars ML+900+845priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved up 1.4.

TOM: spread -20.5 here against -20.0 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Iowa Hawkeyes at Michigan WolverinesIowa at Michigan
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Michigan -4.5
should be Michigan -5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Michigan by 4.5, the Nasty Number says Michigan by 5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Iowa than the bookmore Michigan →
Market
Michigan by 4.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI
Michigan by 5
Sagarin
Michigan by 6.5
Massey
Michigan by 4
Nasty Number
Michigan by 50.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Michigan by 5opened Michigan by 5.5now Michigan by 4.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Michigan by 5.5 to Michigan by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
38TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
39.91.9 pts over the market
Massey
38.40.4 pts over the market
Nasty Number
39.11.1 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.1 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 39.1opened 38now 38Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
TOM-4.5 -11038 -110
Kalshi-3.5 -143 57¢37.5-191 64¢+159 37¢
BetOnline.ag-5 -11038 -105
All 17 books
Michigan spreadTotal (over)Michigan MLIowa ML
TOM-4.5 -11038 -110
Kalshi-3.5 -143 57¢37.5-191 64¢+159 37¢
Bally Bet-4.5 -11037.5 -112-205+165
BetMGM38.5 -105-200+165
BetOnline.ag-5 -11038 -105
betPARX-4.5 -11037.5 -112-205+165
BetRivers-4.5 -11237.5 -113-210+163
Caesars38.5 -110-197+165
Courtside-5.5 -10638.5 -103-194+168
DraftKings-5.5 -10838.5 -102-198+164
DraftKings Predictions-6.5 59¢ -157 all-in37.5 51¢ -113 all-in64¢ -194 all-in37¢ +156 all-in
Fanatics-5 -11038 -105-195+160
FanDuel-4.5 -11038.5 -110-200+164
Fliff-4.5 -11538.5 -115-205+160
Hard Rock Bet-4.5 -11038.5 -105-200+160
LowVig.ag-5 -10638 -103
ReBet-5.5 -11638.5 -109-210+154

Marked: best for the Michigan side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Michigan -4.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Michigan): FanDuel or TOM -4.5 at -110 (-4.3%) · Fanatics -5 at -110 (-5.2%) · DraftKings -5.5 at -108 (-5.6%) · Kalshi -3.5 at 57¢ (-8.2%) · DraftKings Predictions -6.5 at 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-16.9%).
Not Nasty
Michigan to win · -191 (64¢) at Kalshi
We make it 62 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 62 cents fair, a play under 58. Where, best first (Michigan to win): Kalshi 64¢ (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics -194 (64¢ on the app) (-3.8%) · Caesars or DraftKings -197 (-4.1%) · FanDuel or BetMGM -200 (-4.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 38.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 38. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): Fanatics 38 at -105 (0.6%) · DraftKings Predictions 37.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (0.1%) · DraftKings 38.5 at -102 (0.0%) · TOM 38 at -110 (-0.5%) · BetMGM 38.5 at -105 (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Kalshi thin: Iowa Hawkeyes +3.5, only $10 available; Over 37.5, only $87 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMichigan by 540% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Iowa and Michigan's last game
FPI-5.0-166
Sagarin-6.5-196
Massey-4.0-147
Market (14 books)-4.5-184
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points38.039.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMichigan Wolverines -4.5-110+108-4.3%
MoneylineMichigan Wolverines ML-191-165-3.4%
TotalOver 38.0-110-108shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: spread -4.5 here against -4.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Utah Utes at Iowa State CyclonesUtah at Iowa State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Utah -10
should be Utah -10 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Utah by 10, the Nasty Number says Utah by 10. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Utah than the bookmore Iowa State →
Market
Utah by 10TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI
Utah by 10
Sagarin
Utah by 3.5
Massey
Utah by 7.5
Nasty Number
Utah by 100.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah by 10opened Utah by 11now Utah by 10Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Utah by 11 to Utah by 10. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
46.12.9 pts under the market
Massey
50.71.7 pts over the market
Nasty Number
48.40.6 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.6 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 48.4opened 49now 49Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLUtah ML
TOM+10 -11049 -110
BetOnline.ag+11 -11049 -110
All 13 books
Iowa State spreadTotal (over)Iowa State MLUtah ML
TOM+10 -11049 -110
Bally Bet+10.5 -10849.5 -109+360-480
BetOnline.ag+11 -11049 -110
betPARX+10.5 -10849.5 -109+360-480
BetRivers+10.5 -10949.5 -110+350-480
Caesars+10.5 -10549.5 -105+380-500
Courtside+10.5 -10349.5 -103+392-483
DraftKings+10.5 -10549.5 -105+380-500
DraftKings Predictions+10.5 53¢ -122 all-in49.5 48¢ -100 all-in21¢ +335 all-in81¢ -488 all-in
Fanatics+11 -11049 -110+375-500
FanDuel+10.5 -10549.5 -105+385-520
Hard Rock Bet+11.5 -11049.5 -105+350-500
ReBet+11.5 -11449.5 -109+340-549

Marked: best for the Iowa State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Utah -10.0 · -110 at TOM
Covers 47 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Utah): TOM -10 at -110 (-5.7%) · DraftKings Predictions -10.5 at 49¢ on the app (-104 all-in) (-5.9%) · Fanatics -11 at -110 (-8.3%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Caesars -10.5 at -115 (-8.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Utah to win · -500 at DraftKings
We make it 74 in 100 to win, the price says 83, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Utah to win): DraftKings Predictions 81¢ on the app (-488 all-in) (-8.9%) · DraftKings, Fanatics or Caesars -500 (-9.3%) · FanDuel -520 (-9.8%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 49.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 46 and Massey projects 51. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 48¢ on the app (-100 all-in) (-1.0%) · Fanatics or TOM 49 at -110 (-2.1%) · DraftKings, FanDuel or Caesars 49.5 at -105 (-2.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 7 mph wind, 66°F, 28% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +12.0, now +11.0 (the market moved 1.3 toward Iowa State).

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.8 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onUtah by 1030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Utah and Iowa State's last game
FPI+10.0+278
Sagarin+3.5+142
Massey+7.5+213
Market (11 books)+10.0+447
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.048.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUtah Utes -10.0-110+114-5.7%
MoneylineUtah Utes ML-500-285priced at 83 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 49.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.3 toward Iowa State Cyclones since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread +10.0 here against +10.8 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue BoilermakersNotre Dame at Purdue
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Notre Dame -27.5
should be Notre Dame -27 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Notre Dame by 27.5.

The spread

← more Notre Dame than the bookmore Purdue →
Market
Notre Dame by 27.5TOM, -113
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI
Notre Dame by 26
Sagarin
Notre Dame by 17
Massey
Notre Dame by 25
Nasty Number
Notre Dame by 270.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Notre Dame by 27opened Notre Dame by 27.5now Notre Dame by 27.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
57.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
552.5 pts under the market
Massey
57.6on the market
Nasty Number
56.31.2 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.2 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.3opened 57.5now 57.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
TOM+27.5 -11357.5 -110
Kalshi57.5 -107 50¢+1775 -2580 96¢
BetOnline.ag+27.5 -10557.5 -110
All 15 books
Purdue spreadTotal (over)Purdue MLNotre Dame ML
TOM+27.5 -11357.5 -110
Kalshi57.5 -107 50¢+1775 -2580 96¢
Bally Bet+27.5 -10957.5 -112+1500
BetOnline.ag+27.5 -10557.5 -110
betPARX+27.5 -10957.5 -112+1500
BetRivers+27.5 -11057.5 -113+1400
Caesars+27.5 -10757.5 -108
Courtside+27.5 -10356.5 -113+2246
DraftKings+27.5 -10556.5 -115+2000
DraftKings Predictions+27.5 52¢ -117 all-in57.5 50¢ -108 all-in+1329 all-in96¢ -4900 all-in
Fanatics+28 -11557.5 -110+1800
FanDuel+27.5 -10657.5 -110+1600
Hard Rock Bet+28.5 -11557.5 -110+1200
LowVig.ag+27.5 -10157.5 -108
ReBet+28.5 -11957.5 -114+1025

Marked: best for the Purdue side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Purdue +28.0 · -115 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Purdue): Fanatics +28 at -115 (-2.9%) · DraftKings +27.5 at -105 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +27.5 at -106 (-3.3%) · Caesars +27.5 at -107 (-3.5%) · TOM +27.5 at -113 (-4.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Blowout line
Purdue to win · +2000 at DraftKings
We make it 4 in 100 to win, the price says 5, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Purdue to win): DraftKings +2000 (-0.8%) · Fanatics or Kalshi +1800 (-1.3%) · FanDuel +1600 (-1.9%) · DraftKings Predictions 5¢ on the app (+1329 all-in) (-3.0%).
Off the band
the Under 57.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 55 and Massey projects 58. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel, Fanatics or TOM 57.5 at -110 (-1.2%) · Kalshi 57.5 at 51¢ (-1.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 57.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-1.8%) · Caesars 57.5 at -114 (-2.1%) · DraftKings 56.5 at -105 (-2.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 71°F.

Full detail
We settle onNotre Dame by 2730% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Notre Dame and Purdue's last game
FPI+26.0+2132
Sagarin+17.0+639
Massey+25.0+1756
Market (12 books)+27.5+3747
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points57.556.3
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +28.0-115-103-2.9%
MoneylinePurdue Boilermakers ML+2000+2421priced at 5 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 57.5-110-105shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM matches the consensus.

The line is +27.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

UMass Minutemen at Sacramento State HornetsMassachusetts at Sacramento State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Massachusetts -5.5
should be Massachusetts -6 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Massachusetts by 5.5, the Nasty Number says Massachusetts by 6. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Massachusetts than the bookmore Sacramento State →
Market
Massachusetts by 5.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI
Massachusetts by 11.5
Sagarin
Sacramento State by 1
Massey
Sacramento State by 5.5
Nasty Number
Massachusetts by 60.5 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Massachusetts by 6opened Massachusetts by 6now Massachusetts by 5.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from Massachusetts by 6 to Massachusetts by 5.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
49.30.3 pts over the market
Massey
54.55.5 pts over the market
Nasty Number
51.92.9 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 2.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.9opened 49.5now 49Sun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49.5 to 49. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+5.5 -11049 -115
BetOnline.ag+6 -12049.5 -110
All 10 books
Sacramento State spreadTotal (over)Sacramento State MLMassachusetts ML
TOM+5.5 -11049 -115
BetOnline.ag+6 -12049.5 -110
Caesars+6 -11249.5 -118+198-240
Courtside+6.5 -10850.5 -108+199-232
DraftKings+6.5 -11050.5 -110+195-238
DraftKings Predictions48.5 59¢ -157 all-in33¢ +186 all-in68¢ -234 all-in
Fanatics+6 -11050 -110+190-235
FanDuel+6.5 -11449.5 -118+188-230
LowVig.ag+6 -11649.5 -108
ReBet+6.5 -11650.5 -111+185-255

Marked: best for the Sacramento State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Massachusetts -5.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Massachusetts): TOM -5.5 at -110 (-3.2%) · Caesars -6 at -108 (-3.9%) · Fanatics -6 at -110 (-4.3%) · FanDuel -6.5 at -106 (-4.5%) · DraftKings -6.5 at -110 (-5.4%).
Not Nasty
Massachusetts to win · 68¢ on the app (-235 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 65 in 100 to win. The price says 70. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 65 cents fair, a play under 60. Where, best first (Massachusetts to win): FanDuel -230 (-4.8%) · DraftKings Predictions or Fanatics -234 (68¢ on the app) (-5.1%) · DraftKings or Caesars -238 (-5.5%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 49.0 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 49 and Massey projects 55. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 49 at -115 (0.0%) · Fanatics 50 at -110 (-1.4%) · FanDuel or Caesars 49.5 at -118 (-2.0%) · DraftKings 50.5 at -110 (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at 59¢ on the app (-157 all-in) (-6.3%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 80°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +6.0 (the market moved 0.8 toward Massachusetts).

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +6.2 consensus.

TOM: total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onMassachusetts by 621% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Sacramento State's last game
FPI+11.5+330
Sagarin-1.0-110
Massey-5.5-178
Market (8 books)+5.5+218
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.051.9
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadUMass Minutemen -5.5-110+103-3.2%
MoneylineUMass Minutemen ML-235-185-5.2%
TotalOver 49.0-115-115shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.8 toward UMass Minutemen since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 1.6.

TOM: spread +5.5 here against +6.2 consensus; total 49.0 here against 49.9 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Sam Houston State Bearkats at Texas Tech Red RaidersSam Houston at Texas Tech
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Under 55
should be 53.5 · getting 1.5 pts · was 55.5
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Texas Tech by 35.5.

The spread

← more Sam Houston than the bookmore Texas Tech →
Market
Texas Tech by 35.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI
Texas Tech by 27
Sagarin
Texas Tech by 32
Massey
Texas Tech by 35
Nasty Number
Texas Tech by 341.3 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Texas Tech by 34opened Texas Tech by 37.5now Texas Tech by 35.5Sun

The spread has moved 2 points since it opened, from Texas Tech by 37.5 to Texas Tech by 35.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM, Under -110
The Four
SP+ pace
52.22.8 pts under the market
Massey
50.14.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
51.23.8 pts under the market
Under 55 is a little nasty. Our total is 3.8 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 51.2opened 55now 55Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLSam Houston ML
TOM-35.5 -10555 -110
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
BetOnline.ag-37.5 -11055 -110
All 13 books
Texas Tech spreadTotal (over)Texas Tech MLSam Houston ML
TOM-35.5 -10555 -110
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
Bally Bet-37 -11455.5 -113
BetOnline.ag-37.5 -11055 -110
betPARX-37 -11455.5 -113
BetRivers-37 -11455.5 -114
Caesars-37.5 -11054.5 -115
Courtside-37.5 -10854.5 -108
DraftKings-37.5 -11054.5 -110
DraftKings Predictions-35.5 51¢ -113 all-in
Fanatics-37.5 -11055 -110
FanDuel-37.5 -11055.5 -110
LowVig.ag-37.5 -10655 -108

Marked: best for the Texas Tech side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Sam Houston +37.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 57 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Sam Houston): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars +37.5 at -110 (4.9%) · DraftKings Predictions +35.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (1.2%) · TOM +35.5 at -115 (0.7%).
Blowout line
the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 50. That's 3.8 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (2.7%) · Caesars 54.5 at -104 (1.6%) · Fanatics or TOM 55 at -110 (1.5%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (0.2%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 51¢ (-0.2%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 55.0 · -110 at TOM. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 80°F, 21% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened -38.5, now -37.5 (the market moved 1.1 toward Sam Houston).

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -37.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onTexas Tech by 3440% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Texas Tech's last game
FPI-27.0-2379
Sagarin-32.0
Massey-35.0
Market (10 books)-35.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.051.2
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSam Houston State Bearkats +37.5-110-134+4.9%
TotalUnder 55.0-110-117shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.1 toward Sam Houston State Bearkats since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -35.5 here against -37.4 consensus.

The line is -35.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo RocketsSan Diego State at Toledo
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 2:30pm
Toledo -2.5
should be Toledo -2 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Toledo by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Toledo by 2. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more San Diego State than the bookmore Toledo →
Market
Toledo by 2.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI
Toledo by 3.5
Sagarin
Toledo by 3.5
Massey
Toledo by 4
Nasty Number
Toledo by 20.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Toledo by 2opened Toledo by 2.5now Toledo by 2.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
49.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
40.88.7 pts under the market
Massey
48.60.9 pts under the market
Nasty Number
44.74.8 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 4.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 44.7opened 49now 49.5Sun

The total has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from 49 to 49.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-2.5 -11049.5 -105
BetOnline.ag-2 -11050 -110
All 14 books
Toledo spreadTotal (over)Toledo MLSan Diego State ML
TOM-2.5 -11049.5 -105
Bally Bet-1 -10647.5 -109-110-110
BetOnline.ag-2 -11050 -110
betPARX-1 -10647.5 -109-110-110
BetRivers-1 -10747.5 -110-112-112
Caesars48.5 -112
Courtside-1.5 -10348.5 -108-113-103
DraftKings-1.5 -10548.5 -110-115-105
DraftKings Predictions-2.5 50¢ -108 all-in48.5 52¢ -117 all-in54¢ -127 all-in47¢ +104 all-in
Fanatics-1.5 -11048.5 -110-120+100
FanDuel-1.5 -12048.5 -110-134+112
Hard Rock Bet-1.5 -11047.5 -115-120+100
LowVig.ag-2 -10650 -108
ReBet-1.5 -11148.5 -109-125-106

Marked: best for the Toledo side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

San Diego State +2.5 · -110 at TOM
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (San Diego State): TOM +2.5 at -110 (-3.1%) · FanDuel +1.5 at -102 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-4.6%) · Fanatics +1.5 at -110 (-5.3%) · DraftKings +1.5 at -115 (-6.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
San Diego State to win · +112 at FanDuel
We make it 45 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 45 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (San Diego State to win): FanDuel +112 (-2.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 47¢ on the app (+104 all-in) (-4.3%) · Fanatics +100 (-5.4%) · DraftKings -105 (-6.6%).
Not Nasty
the Under 49.5 · -115 at TOM
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 49. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): TOM 49.5 at -115 (1.9%) · Caesars or DraftKings Predictions 48.5 at -108 (50¢ on the app) (1.0%) · FanDuel, DraftKings or Fanatics 48.5 at -110 (0.5%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +2.5, now -1.5 (the market moved 4.0 toward Toledo).

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus.

TOM: total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onToledo by 230% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen San Diego State and Toledo's last game
FPI-3.5-145
Sagarin-3.5-146
Massey-4.0-147
Market (12 books)-2.5-107
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points49.544.7
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadSan Diego State Aztecs +2.5-110+103-3.1%
MoneylineSan Diego State Aztecs ML+112+124-2.5%
TotalUnder 49.5-115-124shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 4.0 toward Toledo Rockets since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -2.5 here against -1.5 consensus; total 49.5 here against 48.4 consensus.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Delaware Blue Hens at Virginia CavaliersDelaware at Virginia
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:00pm
Virginia -20.5
should be Virginia -20 · giving up 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Virginia by 20.5.

The spread

← more Delaware than the bookmore Virginia →
Market
Virginia by 20.5TOM, -105
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI
Virginia by 15.5
Sagarin
Virginia by 22
Massey
Virginia by 26
Nasty Number
Virginia by 200.4 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Virginia by 20opened Virginia by 20.5now Virginia by 20.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52.5TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.41.1 pts under the market
Massey
53.71.2 pts over the market
Nasty Number
52.6on the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within a quarter point of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 54.5now 52.5Sun

The total has moved 2 points since it opened, from 54.5 to 52.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-20.5 -10552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -121 53¢
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11054.5 -110
All 15 books
Virginia spreadTotal (over)Virginia MLDelaware ML
TOM-20.5 -10552.5 -110
Kalshi53.5 -121 53¢
Bally Bet-20.5 -10854.5 -110-2000+900
BetMGM-20.5 -11054.5 -115-1400+950
BetOnline.ag-20.5 -11054.5 -110
betPARX-20.5 -10854.5 -110-2000+900
BetRivers-20.5 -10954.5 -112-2000+850
Caesars-20.5 -11054.5 -110-1700+900
Courtside-21 -10854.5 -108-1509+1008
DraftKings-21 -11054.5 -110-1650+950
DraftKings Predictions-20.5 52¢ -117 all-in52.5 59¢ -157 all-in92¢ -1567 all-in+809 all-in
Fanatics-20.5 -11554.5 -110-1500+900
FanDuel-20.5 -11055.5 -110-1700+890
LowVig.ag-20.5 -10654.5 -108
ReBet-21.5 -10954.5 -119-1587+670

Marked: best for the Virginia side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Delaware +21.0 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Delaware): DraftKings +21 at -110 (-0.9%) · Fanatics +20.5 at -105 (-2.0%) · BetMGM +20.5 at -108 (-2.7%) · FanDuel or Caesars +20.5 at -110 (-3.2%) · DraftKings Predictions +20.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-3.8%).
Blowout line
Delaware to win · +900 at Fanatics
We make it 10 in 100 to win, the price says 10, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Delaware to win): DraftKings or BetMGM +950 (0.3%) · Fanatics, Caesars or FanDuel +900 (-0.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 9¢ on the app (+809 all-in) (-1.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Over 52.5 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 51 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): TOM 52.5 at -110 (1.3%) · Kalshi 53.5 at 53¢ (-3.6%) · Fanatics, DraftKings or Caesars 54.5 at -110 (-3.7%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -115 (-4.8%) · FanDuel 55.5 at -110 (-6.2%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 67°F.

Across the books: opened -22.0, now -20.5 (the market moved 1.5 toward Delaware). It crossed 21 on the way, which is where a lot of games land.

Kalshi thin: Virginia Cavaliers ML, only $185 available; Delaware Blue Hens ML, only $202 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.6 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onVirginia by 2030% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Delaware and Virginia's last game
FPI-15.5-515
Sagarin-22.0-1163
Massey-26.0-2106
Market (12 books)-20.5-1411
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.552.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadDelaware Blue Hens +21.0-110-106-0.9%
MoneylineDelaware Blue Hens ML+900+916priced at 10 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 52.5-110-116shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.5 toward Delaware Blue Hens since 09-20 06:03; total has moved down 0.9.

TOM: total 52.5 here against 54.6 consensus.

The line is -20.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Central Michigan Chippewas at Miami HurricanesCentral Michigan at Miami
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 5:30pm
Under 54.5
should be 51.3 · getting 3.3 pts
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says Miami by 42.

The spread

← more Central Michigan than the bookmore Miami →
Market
Miami by 42
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI
Miami by 42
Sagarin
Miami by 40.5
Massey
Miami by 38.5
Nasty Number
Miami by 41.50.2 pts off the market

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
54.5
The Four
SP+ pace
41.413.2 pts under the market
Massey
47.67 pts under the market
Weather
-1.076% chance of rain, takes a point off
Nasty Number
43.511.1 pts under the market
Under 54.5 is a little nasty. Our total is 11.1 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here. The weather is the part worth acting on, before the market takes the number down.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 43.5opened 54.5now 54.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
BetOnline.ag-42 -11055.5 -110
All 12 books
Miami spreadTotal (over)Miami MLCentral Michigan ML
Kalshi54.5 -116 52¢
Bally Bet-41.5 -11454.5 -112
BetMGM-41.5 -11254.5 -115
BetOnline.ag-42 -11055.5 -110
betPARX-41.5 -11454.5 -112
BetRivers-41.5 -11554.5 -113
Caesars54.5 -112
Courtside-42.5 -10854.5 -108
DraftKings-42.5 -11054.5 -110
Fanatics-42 -11054.5 -115
FanDuel-41.5 -11553.5 -115
LowVig.ag-42 -10655.5 -108

Marked: best for the Miami side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Central Michigan +42.5 · -110 at DraftKings
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Central Michigan): DraftKings +42.5 at -110 (0.5%) · Fanatics +42 at -110 (-0.8%) · FanDuel or BetMGM +41.5 at -105 (-1.0%).
Blowout line
the Under 54.5 · -110
SP+ projects 41 and Massey projects 48. Weather takes 1 off. That's 11.1 points under the market. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics or BetMGM 54.5 at -105 (6.8%) · Caesars 54.5 at -108 (6.1%) · DraftKings 54.5 at -110 (5.7%) · Kalshi 54.5 at 52¢ (4.4%) · FanDuel 53.5 at -105 (4.4%).
A Little Nasty, not rated

If you're betting it anyway: Buck's side is the Under 54.5 · -110. The totals model is still proving itself.

Weather at kickoff: 6 mph wind, 85°F, 76% chance of rain. Total pulled down 1 for it.

Full detail
We settle onMiami by 41.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Central Michigan and Miami's last game
FPI-42.0
Sagarin-40.5
Massey-38.5
Market (11 books)-42.0
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points54.543.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas +42.5-110-112+0.5%
TotalUnder 54.5-110-138shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

The line is -42.0. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Appalachian State Mountaineers at NC State WolfpackApp State at NC State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
NC State -13.5
should be NC State -13.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says NC State by 13.5, the Nasty Number says NC State by 13.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more App State than the bookmore NC State →
Market
NC State by 13.5TOM, -115
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI
NC State by 9
Sagarin
NC State by 20.5
Massey
NC State by 15.5
Nasty Number
NC State by 13.50.1 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number NC State by 13.5opened NC State by 14now NC State by 13.5Sun

The spread has moved 0.5 points since it opened, from NC State by 14 to NC State by 13.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
55TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
57.62.6 pts over the market
Massey
561 pts over the market
Nasty Number
56.81.8 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.8 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 56.8opened 55now 55Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-13.5 -11555 -110
BetOnline.ag-14 -10555 -110
All 14 books
NC State spreadTotal (over)NC State MLApp State ML
TOM-13.5 -11555 -110
Bally Bet-13.5 -11354.5 -110-530+390
BetMGM-13.5 -11054.5 -118-550+425
BetOnline.ag-14 -10555 -110
betPARX-13.5 -11354.5 -110-530+390
BetRivers-13.5 -11354.5 -112-530+370
Caesars-14 -10855 -110-560+400
Courtside-14 -10855.5 -108-515+413
DraftKings-14 -11055.5 -110-535+400
DraftKings Predictions54.5 52¢ -117 all-in82¢ -526 all-in18¢ +400 all-in
Fanatics-14 -10555 -110-550+410
FanDuel-13.5 -11054.5 -110-580+420
LowVig.ag-14 -10155 -108
ReBet-14.5 -10554.5 -119-649+390

Marked: best for the NC State side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

App State +13.5 · -105 at TOM
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (App State): DraftKings +14 at -110 (0.3%) · Caesars +14 at -113 (-0.4%) · TOM +13.5 at -105 (-0.6%) · Fanatics +14 at -115 (-0.8%) · BetMGM +13.5 at -108 (-1.3%).
Not Nasty
App State to win · 18¢ on the app (+400 all-in) at DraftKings Predictions
We make it 20 in 100 to win, the price says 20, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (App State to win): BetMGM or FanDuel +425 (0.5%) · Fanatics +410 (-0.0%) · DraftKings Predictions, DraftKings or Caesars +400 (18¢ on the app) (-0.4%).
Off the band
the Over 55.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 58 and Massey projects 56. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 54.5 at -110 (-0.1%) · Fanatics, Caesars or TOM 55 at -110 (-1.3%) · DraftKings Predictions 54.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-1.6%) · BetMGM 54.5 at -118 (-1.8%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (-2.6%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 69°F.

Across the books: opened -13.0, now -14.0 (the market moved 0.7 toward NC State).

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onNC State by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen App State and NC State's last game
FPI-9.0-258
Sagarin-20.5-981
Massey-15.5-533
Market (12 books)-13.5-494
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points55.056.8
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadAppalachian State Mountaineers +13.5-105-103-0.6%
MoneylineAppalachian State Mountaineers ML+400+411priced at 20 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalOver 55.0-110-104shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.7 toward NC State Wolfpack since 09-20 06:03.

TOM: spread -13.5 here against -13.8 consensus.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Troy Trojans at Utah State AggiesTroy at Utah State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 6:30pm
Utah State -2.5
should be Utah State -2.5 · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Utah State by 2.5, the Nasty Number says Utah State by 2.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Troy than the bookmore Utah State →
Market
Utah State by 2.5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI
Troy by 0.5
Sagarin
Utah State by 3.5
Massey
Utah State by 7
Nasty Number
Utah State by 2.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Utah State by 2.5opened Utah State by 2.5now Utah State by 2.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
52
The Four
SP+ pace
52.80.6 pts over the market
Massey
52.3on the market
Nasty Number
52.60.4 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 0.4 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 52.6opened 52.5now 52.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Troy +2.5 · -104 at FanDuel
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 51 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Troy): FanDuel +2.5 at -104 (-2.0%) · Fanatics +2.5 at -105 (-2.2%) · Caesars +2.5 at -107 (-2.7%) · DraftKings +2.5 at -110 (-3.4%) · DraftKings Predictions +2.5 at 51¢ on the app (-113 all-in) (-4.0%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Troy to win · +115 at Fanatics
We make it 44 in 100 to win. The price says 47. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 44 cents fair, a play under 40. Where, best first (Troy to win): FanDuel +116 (-2.0%) · Fanatics or Caesars +115 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 45¢ on the app (+113 all-in) (-2.7%) · DraftKings +110 (-3.3%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
the Over 52.0 · -110
SP+ projects 53 and Massey projects 52. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel or Caesars 51.5 at -115 (-1.5%) · Fanatics 52 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 49.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-2.2%) · DraftKings 52.5 at -110 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 79°F.

Full detail
We settle onUtah State by 2.521% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Troy and Utah State's last game
FPI+0.5+106
Sagarin-3.5-140
Massey-7.0-207
Market (12 books)-2.5-126
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points52.052.6
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadTroy Trojans +2.5-104+104-2.0%
MoneylineTroy Trojans ML+115+126-2.2%
TotalOver 52.0-110-103shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 1.3.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Missouri State Bears at SMU MustangsMissouri State at SMU
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm
Missouri State +34.5
should be Missouri State +33 · getting 1.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Lines this big overshoot, and the ratings don't move it enough to matter. Market says SMU by 34.5.

The spread

← more Missouri State than the bookmore SMU →
Market
SMU by 34.5TOM, -110
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI
SMU by 28
Sagarin
SMU by 33.5
Massey
SMU by 29
Nasty Number
SMU by 331.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number SMU by 33opened SMU by 34.5now SMU by 34.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
58TOM
The Four
SP+ pace
51.56.5 pts under the market
Massey
56.71.3 pts under the market
Nasty Number
54.13.9 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3.9 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 54.1opened 59.5now 58Sun

The total has moved 1.5 points since it opened, from 59.5 to 58. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-34.5 -11058 -110
BetOnline.ag-34.5 -11059.5 -110
All 15 books
SMU spreadTotal (over)SMU MLMissouri State ML
TOM-34.5 -11058 -110
Bally Bet-34.5 -11259.5 -112
BetMGM-34.5 -10859.5 -108
BetOnline.ag-34.5 -11059.5 -110
betPARX-34.5 -11259.5 -112
BetRivers-34.5 -11359.5 -113
Caesars-34.5 -11059.5 -108+2100
Courtside-34.5 -10859.5 -108
DraftKings-34.5 -11059.5 -110
DraftKings Predictions-34.5 51¢ -113 all-in59.5 49¢ -104 all-in
Fanatics-34.5 -11059.5 -110
FanDuel-34.5 -11059.5 -105
Hard Rock Bet-35.5 -10559.5 -110
LowVig.ag-34.5 -10659.5 -108
ReBet-35.5 -11159.5 -111

Marked: best for the SMU side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Missouri State +34.5 · -110 at FanDuel
Covers 53 in 100 by the Nasty Number, but lines this big overshoot and the ratings can't price them. Not a bet. Where, best first (Missouri State): FanDuel, Fanatics, DraftKings, Caesars, BetMGM or TOM +34.5 at -110 (0.7%) · DraftKings Predictions +34.5 at 52¢ on the app (-117 all-in) (-0.8%).
Blowout line
Missouri State to win · +4290 at Fanatics
We make it 2 in 100 to win, the price says 2, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Missouri State to win): Fanatics or BetMGM +4500 (-0.5%) · FanDuel +4000 (-0.8%) · DraftKings +3500 (-1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 2¢ on the app (+2400 all-in) (-2.4%) · Caesars +2100 (-2.9%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 58.0 · -110 at TOM
SP+ projects 52 and Massey projects 57. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): Fanatics, DraftKings or BetMGM 59.5 at -110 (1.7%) · Caesars 59.5 at -112 (1.2%) · FanDuel 59.5 at -115 (0.5%) · DraftKings Predictions 59.5 at 54¢ on the app (-127 all-in) (-1.9%) · TOM 58 at -110 (-2.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 10 mph wind, 84°F.

TOM: total 58.0 here against 59.5 consensus.

Full detail
We settle onSMU by 3330% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Missouri State and SMU's last game
FPI-28.0-2727
Sagarin-33.5
Massey-29.0-3184
Market (13 books)-34.5
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points58.054.1
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadMissouri State Bears +34.5-110-113+0.7%
MoneylineMissouri State Bears ML+4290+5997priced at 2 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 58.0-110-101shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

TOM: total 58.0 here against 59.5 consensus.

The line is -34.5. Rating differences overshoot on games this lopsided, so whatever gap shows up is arithmetic rather than insight.

Oregon State Beavers at UTEP MinersOregon State at UTEP
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 8:00pm
Oregon State -12
should be Oregon State -12.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Oregon State by 12, the Nasty Number says Oregon State by 12.5. That's the same number, and the vig eats anything smaller.

The spread

← more Oregon State than the bookmore UTEP →
Market
Oregon State by 12
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI
Oregon State by 14
Sagarin
Oregon State by 8.5
Massey
Oregon State by 11.5
Nasty Number
Oregon State by 12.50.2 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Oregon State by 12.5opened Oregon State by 11.5now Oregon State by 12.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Oregon State by 11.5 to Oregon State by 12.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
56
The Four
SP+ pace
45.410.7 pts under the market
Massey
53.62.5 pts under the market
Nasty Number
49.56.6 pts under the market
Under 56 is a little nasty. Our total is 6.6 points under the book. Ratings totals don't beat the closing number over four seasons, so a total is never a pick on its own here.

The total this weekshrinking, 0.5 pts

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 49.5opened 56.5now 56Sun

The total has come 0.5 points toward the Nasty Number since it opened. That's the market agreeing with us, and 0.5 points more room gone. If you like it, take it before it moves again.

Oregon State -12.0 · -110
Covers 48 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Oregon State): FanDuel -11.5 at -115 (-4.5%) · Fanatics or DraftKings -12.5 at -110 (-4.7%) · Caesars -12.5 at -112 (-5.1%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Oregon State to win · -549 at FanDuel
We make it 78 in 100 to win, the price says 85, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Oregon State to win): DraftKings Predictions 82¢ on the app (-526 all-in) (-5.7%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -550 (-6.3%) · Caesars -560 (-6.5%) · DraftKings -575 (-6.8%).
Off the band
the Under 56.0 · -110
SP+ projects 45 and Massey projects 54. The two sources disagree by 8 points, so one of them is wrong here. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 56.5 at -110 (3.6%) · Fanatics 56 at -110 (2.5%) · Caesars 55.5 at -105 (2.2%) · DraftKings 55.5 at -110 (1.1%) · DraftKings Predictions 55.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-5.6%).
Sources disagree

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 1 mph wind, 78°F, 20% chance of rain.

Across the books: opened +11.0, now +12.0 (the market moved 1.0 toward Oregon State).

Full detail
We settle onOregon State by 12.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Oregon State and UTEP's last game
FPI+14.0+432
Sagarin+8.5+238
Massey+11.5+329
Market (11 books)+12.0+451
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points56.049.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadOregon State Beavers -12.0-110+107-4.0%
MoneylineOregon State Beavers ML-549-362priced at 85 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 56.0-110-121shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 1.0 toward Oregon State Beavers since 09-20 06:03; total has moved up 1.6.

Only one model disagrees with the market on the side. A lone dissenter is usually the one at fault.

Rice Owls at Fresno State BulldogsRice at Fresno State
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:00pm
Fresno State -13
should be Fresno State -13.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Fresno State by 13, the Nasty Number says Fresno State by 13.5. 0.6 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Rice than the bookmore Fresno State →
Market
Fresno State by 13
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI
Fresno State by 15
Sagarin
Fresno State by 14.5
Massey
Fresno State by 15
Nasty Number
Fresno State by 13.50.6 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Fresno State by 13.5opened Fresno State by 13.5now Fresno State by 13.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
44
The Four
SP+ pace
40.23.6 pts under the market
Massey
44.81 pts over the market
Nasty Number
42.51.3 pts under the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 1.3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 42.5opened 44.5now 43.5Sun

The total has moved 1 point since it opened, from 44.5 to 43.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

Fresno State -13.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 51 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Fresno State): FanDuel or Caesars -12.5 at -110 (-1.0%) · Fanatics -13 at -110 (-1.7%) · DraftKings -13.5 at -110 (-2.4%) · DraftKings Predictions -13.5 at 62¢ on the app (-178 all-in) (-14.0%).
Not Nasty
Fresno State to win · -540
We make it 81 in 100 to win, the price says 84, but prices this far from even aren't reliable enough to rate. Where, best first (Fresno State to win): DraftKings -520 (-3.1%) · Caesars -530 (-3.3%) · FanDuel or Fanatics -550 (-3.8%) · DraftKings Predictions 84¢ on the app (-614 all-in) (-5.2%). Either of the first two is fine.
Off the band
the Under 44.0 · -110
SP+ projects 40 and Massey projects 45. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Under): FanDuel 44.5 at -110 (0.3%) · Caesars 43.5 at -104 (-0.8%) · Fanatics 44 at -110 (-1.0%) · DraftKings 43.5 at -110 (-2.2%) · DraftKings Predictions 44.5 at 57¢ on the app (-144 all-in) (-6.4%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 5 mph wind, 89°F.

Full detail
We settle onFresno State by 13.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Rice and Fresno State's last game
FPI-15.0-501
Sagarin-14.5-456
Massey-15.0-503
Market (9 books)-13.0-504
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points44.042.5
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadFresno State Bulldogs -13.0-110-103-1.7%
MoneylineFresno State Bulldogs ML-540-421priced at 84 cents, outside the band where the risk and the model are both reliable
TotalUnder 44.0-110-106shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: total has moved down 0.7.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Stanford CardinalGeorgia Tech at Stanford
CFB Sat 26 Sep, 9:30pm
Georgia Tech -5
should be Georgia Tech -5.5 · getting 0.5 pts · no bet
Not NastyBuck's case ›
Buck

Not Nasty. Market says Georgia Tech by 5, the Nasty Number says Georgia Tech by 5.5. 0.7 points isn't an edge after the price.

The spread

← more Georgia Tech than the bookmore Stanford →
Market
Georgia Tech by 5
The Four
SP+
hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI
Georgia Tech by 8
Sagarin
Georgia Tech by 5
Massey
Georgia Tech by 7
Nasty Number
Georgia Tech by 5.50.7 pts off the market

The spread this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number Georgia Tech by 5.5opened Georgia Tech by 5.5now Georgia Tech by 4.5Sun

The spread has moved 1 point since it opened, from Georgia Tech by 5.5 to Georgia Tech by 4.5. We have no side on it, so that's information, not a bet.

The total

← lower, more Underhigher, more Over →
Market
47.5
The Four
SP+ pace
46.60.8 pts under the market
Massey
54.26.9 pts over the market
Nasty Number
50.43 pts over the market
Nothing on the total. The Nasty Number is within 3 points of the book.

The total this week

TOM's number since it opened. The dotted line is ours.

Nasty Number 50.4opened 47.5now 47.5Sun

The number hasn't moved since it opened.

Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
Kalshi+4.547.5 -112 51¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
BetOnline.ag+5 -11047.5 -110
All 11 books
Stanford spreadTotal (over)Stanford MLGeorgia Tech ML
Kalshi+4.547.5 -112 51¢+159 37¢-200 65¢
BetMGM+5 -11047.5 -105+155-190
BetOnline.ag+5 -11047.5 -110
Caesars47.5 -104+158-190
Courtside+4.5 -10847.5 -108+157-181
DraftKings+4.5 -11047.5 -110+154-185
DraftKings Predictions+5.5 53¢ -122 all-in46.5 57¢ -144 all-in37¢ +156 all-in65¢ -203 all-in
Fanatics+5 -11047.5 -110+155-190
FanDuel+5.5 -11546.5 -110+160-194
LowVig.ag+5 -10647.5 -108
ReBet+4.5 -11447.5 -109+167-230

Marked: best for the Stanford side and the Over, higher payout on each moneyline.

Georgia Tech -5.0 · -110 at Fanatics
Covers 49 in 100 by the Nasty Number. Needs 52 to break even. Not enough. Where, best first (Georgia Tech): DraftKings -4.5 at -110 (-2.5%) · Kalshi -4.5 at 51¢ (-2.9%) · DraftKings Predictions or FanDuel -5.5 at -104 (49¢ on the app) (-2.9%) · BetMGM -5 at -108 (-3.0%) · Fanatics -5 at -110 (-3.4%). Either of the first two is fine.
Not Nasty
Georgia Tech to win · -190 at Fanatics
We make it 64 in 100 to win. The price says 66. Nothing there. On Kalshi that's 64 cents fair, a play under 59. Where, best first (Georgia Tech to win): DraftKings -185 (-1.0%) · Fanatics, Caesars or BetMGM -190 (-1.6%) · FanDuel -194 (-2.1%) · Kalshi 65¢ (-2.7%) · DraftKings Predictions 65¢ on the app (-203 all-in) (-3.1%).
Not Nasty
the Over 47.5 · -110
SP+ projects 47 and Massey projects 54. Within 2 of the market; nothing to bet. Where, best first (Over): FanDuel 46.5 at -110 (2.2%) · Caesars 47.5 at -104 (1.1%) · BetMGM 47.5 at -105 (0.8%) · Fanatics or DraftKings 47.5 at -110 (-0.3%) · Kalshi 47.5 at 51¢ (-0.7%).
No side

If you're betting it anyway: Buck wouldn't. Nothing here is even the better half of a coin flip.

Weather at kickoff: 9 mph wind, 68°F.

Across the books: opened +5.5, now +5.0 (the market moved 0.6 toward Stanford).

Kalshi thin: Stanford Cardinal +4.5, only $1 available. Under $500 fillable, so that price isn't counted.

Full detail
We settle onGeorgia Tech by 5.530% weight on the ratings
Power ratingTheir lineHome ML
SP+hasn't seen Georgia Tech and Stanford's last game
FPI+8.0+223
Sagarin+5.0+165
Massey+7.0+201
Market (9 books)+5.0+177
TotalMarketSP+ projects
Points47.550.4
MarketPlayPriceNasty NumberEdge
SpreadGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets -5.0-110+104-3.4%
MoneylineGeorgia Tech Yellow Jackets ML-190-177-1.6%
TotalOver 47.5-110-109shown for information only, the totals model hasn't been validated against results yet

Line move: spread has moved 0.6 toward Stanford Cardinal since 09-20 06:03.

Nothing here beats what it costs. Models and market agree closely enough that the vig eats any difference.

A winning ticket

The Receipts

The cage. Every ticket the board wrote, cashed or not, graded at the number on it. No edits, no deletions, no "we had that one."

How it's going

Nasty Picks3-3-0.27 units · -4% ROI
Nasty Dogs1-0+1.92 units · +192% ROI
Vs the close+0.7 ptsbeat the close on 5 of 7 posted picks
Open0calls waiting on a final
What these numbers mean

One flat unit a call, graded at the line and price the board posted. Nasty Dogs are price bets and never count in the Nasty Pick record. "Vs the close" is closing line value: the number we posted against where the market ended up at kickoff. Positive means we got the better number. It shows whether the picks beat the market long before the win-loss record can.

How the last picks finished

Cashed at the cage off the final score, one unit a ticket. Every rung of the ladder, graded at the line and price the board had at kickoff. Open a rung for the games, by week.

Nasty Picks3-350%-0.27 units6 games

Closing line value: +0.7 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 5 of 6. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

1-2 · -1.05 units
LostCincinnati -14.5Miami (OH) RedHawks at Cincinnati Bearcats31-35-1.00
LostMissouri State +4.5Marshall Thundering Herd at Missouri State Bears30-24-1.00
WonWest Virginia +10.0Virginia Cavaliers at West Virginia Mountaineers27-38+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

2-1 · +0.78 units
WonApp State +7.5Appalachian State Mountaineers at East Carolina Pirates27-24+0.91
LostBuffalo +10.0Buffalo Bulls at Florida International Panthers20-33-1.00
WonOhio PKJacksonville State Gamecocks at Ohio Bobcats27-29+0.87
Nasty Dogs1-0100%+1.92 units1 game

Closing line value: beat the close on 0 of 1. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 8 to 14

1-0 · +1.92 units
WonMichigan MLOklahoma Sooners at Michigan Wolverines10-17+1.92
Damn Near Nasty3-260%+0.77 units5 games

Closing line value: +0.2 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 3 of 5. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

3-1 · +1.77 units
WonJames Madison +3.0James Madison Dukes at San Diego State Aztecs26-13+0.95
WonOhio +7.0Ohio Bobcats at South Alabama Jaguars36-41+0.87
LostPurdue +13.5Purdue Boilermakers at UCLA Bruins38-52-1.00
WonTennessee Titans +7.0Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans24-20+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

0-1 · -1.00 units
LostTennessee Titans PKNew York Jets at Tennessee Titans23-10-1.00
A Little Nasty14-1745%-4.19 units31 games

Closing line value: +0.1 pts vs close on average, beat the close on 9 of 14. Positive means the number we posted was better than where the market ended up.

Sep 15 to 21

2-5 · -3.11 units
LostOver 50.5Kansas Jayhawks at Arizona State Sun Devils17-24-1.00
LostUnder 53.0Florida Gators at Auburn Tigers44-39-1.00
LostGeorgia Southern +3.5Georgia Southern Eagles at Jacksonville State Gamecocks27-31-1.00
LostOver 56.0UAB Blazers at Louisiana Ragin Cajuns14-21-1.00
WonUnder 59.0LSU Tigers at Ole Miss Rebels24-32+0.93
LostUnder 60.5Mississippi State Bulldogs at South Carolina Gamecocks41-34-1.00
WonOver 50.5NC State Wolfpack at Vanderbilt Commodores31-35+0.95

Sep 8 to 14

12-12 · -1.08 units
LostOver 53.0Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Boston College Eagles21-28-1.00
WonOver 51.5Missouri Tigers at Kansas Jayhawks38-21+0.91
WonOver 45.5South Florida Bulls at Army Black Knights28-24+0.91
LostOver 49.5Arizona Wildcats at BYU Cougars17-28-1.00
LostStony Brook +14.0Stony Brook Seawolves at Ball State Cardinals17-41-1.00
WonOver 54.5Memphis Tigers at Boise State Broncos20-38+0.91
WonOver 59.5Navy Midshipmen at Florida Atlantic Owls30-38+0.91
WonOver 55.5Tennessee Volunteers at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets45-24+0.91
WonOver 51.5Duke Blue Devils at Illinois Fighting Illini31-27+0.91
WonMiddle Tennessee +11.5Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Marshall Thundering Herd26-28+0.91
LostMinnesota +1.0Mississippi State Bulldogs at Minnesota Golden Gophers38-13-1.00
LostUnder 54.5Lindenwood Lions at Missouri State Bears14-48-1.00
LostOver 58.5UNLV Rebels at North Texas Mean Green6-44-1.00
WonOver 48.0South Alabama Jaguars at Tulane Green Wave24-28+0.93
LostOver 53.0UL Monroe Warhawks at UAB Blazers20-26-1.00
WonUnder 54.0San Diego State Aztecs at UCLA Bruins10-28+0.87
LostOver 55.0Arkansas Razorbacks at Utah Utes10-43-1.00
LostUnder 47.0Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers59-37-1.00
LostUnder 50.0New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions30-31-1.00
WonOver 44.5Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans36-31+0.91
WonUnder 46.5Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Chargers26-14+0.93
LostUnder 45.0Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings22-39-1.00
LostAtlanta Falcons +6.5Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers13-20-1.00
WonUnder 43.0Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs10-31+0.91

10 tickets voided before kickoff, not graded, not counted: 8 posted before the stale-ratings rule, 1 under the edge bar, 1 rejected by the audit.

See which ones

8 posted before the stale-ratings rule. Posted for Sep 12 on ratings that hadn't seen the previous weekend's games, before the stale-ratings rule went in on Sep 8. When the ratings rebuilt they were no longer picks, so they were pulled before kickoff: Eastern Michigan at Michigan State, Michigan State -16.5; Arkansas at Utah, Arkansas -11.5; Tennessee at Georgia Tech, Georgia Tech +13.5; Ohio State at Texas, Ohio State ML; Mississippi State at Minnesota, Minnesota ML; California at Syracuse, California ML; Arizona State at Texas A&M, Texas A&M -14.5; San Diego State at UCLA, San Diego State -11.5.

1 under the edge bar. Posted for Sep 12 from a stale number at the book that showed under the 3% edge bar at the price. Stale-line picks weren't held to the same bar as every other pick until Sep 10, so it was pulled before kickoff: UTSA at Texas State, Texas State +1.0.

1 rejected by the audit. Logged for Sep 12 by a build whose own audit then rejected it (a small-school total, which is never a pick). The bet-log entry is void; the game is tracked as A Little Nasty instead: Lindenwood at Missouri State, Under 54.5.

The group

Bets you tick are kept in this browser for now. The group leaderboard comes with the public version, once there's somewhere to send them.

Record by call

Every game, graded on what the board said at kickoff. One flat unit a call at the recorded price. Not Nasty games are counted so nothing is hidden.

At kickoff we saidRecordHit rateUnits
Nasty Pick (incl. Nastiest)3-350.0%-0.3 usmall sample
Nasty Dog1-0100.0%+1.9 usmall sample
Damn Near Nasty3-260.0%+0.8 usmall sample
A Little Nasty14-1745.2%-4.2 u
Not Nasty131 gamesno call to grade

What the results are teaching us

Every game we price is graded once it finishes, whether or not we backed it. This is that study, per sport, with the sample size beside each number. Totals by source and the record by call sit under the hood below. Not a record; nothing here is a pick. Updated 2026-09-20 13:55.

College

How much of our own number to use. On 71 finished games the best blend weight on the ratings is 5%; we use 30%. The loop moves it only past 300 games, so this is a reading, not a decision.

NumberMisses the final byGames
Massey7.6756
FPI9.86111
SP+10.03111
The market10.21162
Sagarin11.70152

Each system's vote in the blend. Held at 1 until 300 games say otherwise; the loop moves one vote a quarter step at a time and logs it.

SystemVote nowBest voteWould save, pts a gameGames
FPI1.000.000.1357
Massey1.001.500.0356
SP+1.000.500.0257
Sagarin1.001.500.0971

The line archive, 162 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 75 times, against it 60, and sat still 27. Our side taken at the open finished 0.46 points better than the close on average over 152 games. The close misses the final by 10.10, the open by 10.30, our raw ratings number by 12.32, Pinnacle's close by 10.05. Sharpest closing books: BetUS 9.33, MyBookie.ag 9.83, Kalshi 9.91.

The Cut tracker. picks that got there by none: 4-3, +1.65 units, -0.1 pts vs the close on 3.

NFL

NumberMisses the final byGames
The market11.1317
nfelo11.2617
Sagarin11.7317

The line archive, 17 games. Between the first build that priced a game and the last before kickoff, the market moved toward our number 7 times, against it 7, and sat still 3. Our side taken at the open finished 0.34 points better than the close on average over 14 games. The close misses the final by 10.93, the open by 11.35, our raw ratings number by 11.44, Pinnacle's close by 10.94. Sharpest closing books: BetRivers 10.82, DraftKings 10.82, LowVig.ag 10.82.

The head start. 46 Sniffs of Nasty have landed on a rung: the market moved toward the Sunday number 11 times, against it 11, average 0.13 points; the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped 4, went quiet 11.

Four seasons, measured

Every FBS game with a closing line, 2022 to 2025: 5,814 games. The bets below are graded against the close, with no prices, so 52.4% is break-even at -110. These numbers set the rules; the live record above is what tests them.

CollegeRecordHit rate
Stale spread, 2+ pts off the pack232-18455.8%the rule behind stale-number picks
Stale spread, 1+ pt off the pack733-64253.3%
Stale total, 2+ pts off the pack217-18254.4%
Stale total, 1+ pt off the pack804-71752.9%
Ratings alone 3+ pts off the close841-79751.3%why a ratings pick needs every source agreeing and a priced edge
Favourites laying 17 or more1,540 games49.2% coveredwhy lines past 17 aren't priced
Under in 15+ mph wind430 games53.0%why windy totals get pulled down

Why ratings totals are a little nasty, not picks. We built a totals model from pace and per-play efficiency using only what was known before each kickoff, 2022 to 2025, 3,751 games. Betting it whenever it was 3+ points off the closing total went 1177-1044, 53.0%: break-even, with two of four seasons under it, and it missed final scores by more than the market did. The closing total is the sharpest number on the board. The one totals bet that has measured above break-even is the stale one above, where a book hasn't moved with the market, and even that is shown here, never a pick, until the Receipts say otherwise.

Margins land on 3 about 3.0x and on 7 about 3.0x as often as the numbers either side, which is why a half point through those numbers is priced the way it is.

NFL, 2015 to 2025: 2,583 regular-season games, nfelo's lines and nflverse scores.

NFLBetsHit rate
Market moved 1.5 to 2, bet the old number24556.3%the NFL stale rule fires at 1.5
Market moved 2 to 3, bet the old number30958.9%
Market moved 3+, bet the old number27863.7%
Move crosses 3, bet the old number30856.8%any size, if it crosses 3
Move crosses 7, bet the old number17458.0%any size, if it crosses 7
nfelo 2.0+ pts off the close, bet nfelo's side27354.2%why NFL ratings edges cap at Damn Near Nasty

Under the hood

It's 14 graded bets. That tells you nothing yet, in either direction. Ask again after fifty.

Closing line value
+0.55Sides: pts vs close, 14 bets, beat it 71%

Positive means we got a better number than the close. It's the earliest honest read on whether the picks beat the market.

The head start: 52 Sniffs of Nasty, then the real rung

A Sniff of Nasty is the read from the systems that have rebuilt, before the last one has. This is what the market did between that read and the day the game got its real rung: 17 of 52 moved our way, average +0.3 points, and the full board kept the side 31 times, flipped it 4, went quiet 17. Not a record; nothing here is graded.

GameSniff saidLine thenLine at the rungOur wayFull board
App State at NC StateAppalachian State +13.513.513.7-0.2no call
Hawai'i at WyomingUnder45.545+0.5no call
James Madison at Old DominionJames Madison -3-3-4.5+1.5no call
Minnesota at WashingtonMinnesota Golden +9.39.38.5+0.8no call
Nebraska at Michigan StateOver48.149+0.9no call
San Diego State at ToledoToledo +1.81.8-2.5+4.3no call
South Florida at Bowling GreenUnder53.551+2.5no call
Tulsa at ArkansasTulsa Golden +9.59.57+2.5no call
Utah at Iowa StateIowa State +12.212.210+2.2no call
Vanderbilt at AuburnUnder52.752.8-0.1no call
Wake Forest at LouisvilleWake Forest Demon +13.513.513+0.5no call
Wisconsin at Penn StatePenn State Nittany -10.6-10.6-9.6-1.0no call
Totals by source, every finished game

Each totals source graded on every game we priced, called or not: how far it misses the final, and when it disagrees with the market by 2 or 4 points, how often its side lands. Break-even is 52.4%. This is the study behind the totals switch; the switch stays off until a source clears it over 150 games. Not a record.

College, 113 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 12.2 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
SP+6214.818-27 (40%)12-14 (46%)
Massey6613.814-17 (45%)5-11 (31%)
The blend6714.114-23 (38%)9-11 (45%)

NFL, 14 finished games. The market's total misses the final by 10.0 points on average.

SourceGamesMisses by2+ off the market4+ off
Massey1013.04-5 (44%)1-2 (33%)
FPI813.22-0 (100%)2-0 (100%)
The blend1011.24-1 (80%)1-0 (100%)
NastyScoresLoading scores… Buck Nasty

Every game on the slate. A game the board had a call on carries the rung, the bet as called, and how it's doing once the game starts.

Ask Buck Nasty

Questions about the board?

He can only talk about what's on this page, and he'll tell you when he doesn't know.

For entertainment only. Small edges lose often. Practise responsible gambling.

How Nasty Picks works

Nasty Picks finds the bets worth making on the college football and NFL board, says why, and grades every one in public at the number it posted.

Four ingredients go in the Nasty Sauce. The Sauce makes the Nasty Number. The Nasty Number has to make the Cut to be a Nasty Pick. Every Nasty Pick goes in the Receipts.

The Four

SP+, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for college. nfelo, FPI, Sagarin and Massey for the NFL. Four opinions, none of them ours.

The Sauce

The Four blended toward the market, because the market has already read them. Ratings get 30%, the market 70%.

The Cut

3% edge after the price when the Four all price the game and agree. More when fewer do. Under it is Damn Near Nasty, or a sneaky.

The Receipts

Every ticket cashed at the number it was written at. No edits, no deletions. Voids say why.

Points or price

A half point matters most on the numbers games land on: 3 and 7 in the NFL; 3, 7, 10 and 14 in college. Anywhere else, ten cents of price beats a half point. The Sauce prices every half point at every number, so when two books disagree the row says which wins, and by how much. Take the best one you hold.

Buck Nasty at the table under the Nasty Picks sign

Then the tools: build detail, the funnel, what moved, the line archive, ratings freshness, and the bet log.

60 priced · 27 a little nasty · audit clean

8 games already kicked off and are left off the board. Once a game starts the feed gives live in-play prices, which a pregame rating can't be compared against.

We read 60 games across 21 books, priced every moneyline, spread and total, and cross-checked them against the Four. 3 were worth a second look. nothing made the Cut, which happens.

Since 5:01pm

Nothing has moved.

Where the money went

Numbers that walked one way and stayed there. We can't see betting percentages, so this reads direction instead: the public backs favourites, so a line moving toward the underdog is money coming from somewhere else.

  • → 4.0Oklahoma State Cowboys at West Virginia Mountaineerstoward West Virginia Mountaineersagainst the public
  • → 4.0San Diego State Aztecs at Toledo Rocketstoward Toledo Rocketsagainst the public
  • → 3.9Oregon Ducks at USC Trojanstoward Oregon Ducksagainst the public
  • → 2.6Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigerstoward LSU Tigerswith the public
  • → 2.2Colorado Buffaloes at Baylor Bearstoward Baylor Bearswith the public
  • → 2.0Missouri Tigers at Mississippi State Bulldogstoward Mississippi State Bulldogswith the public

What the results are teaching us

Graded from every game we priced, not just the ones we backed.

0%Best weight on our ratings
9.54Points off per game at that weight
9.54The market on its own
78Games graded

Fitted straight from the finals, the weight is 26%, give or take 25% (one standard error, 78 games). The tuner moves when that band clears the setting in use.

The market's own number is as good as anything we can make from it so far. That argues for leaning on the price and hunting stale lines rather than backing our opinion.

What it changed by itself

The weight on our own ratings tunes itself, three points at a time, once there's enough evidence: 300 graded games for college, 90 for the NFL because a season only holds 272. The smaller sample has to show a proportionally bigger improvement before it's acted on. Nothing else adjusts on its own.

WhenSportWeightWhy
2026-09-19College30% → 27%the fit on 111 games puts the weight at -29% (±14%), two errors from 30%

Who predicts best

Average points missed against the real margin. Lower is better.

SourceGamesAvg miss
Massey638.27
FPI12010.02
SP+11110.03
The market18610.37
Sagarin17611.75
nfelo2411.77

Does the score sort anything?

Every game we priced, grouped by the score we gave it, and how often the side we leaned actually covered. If the rate doesn't climb with the score, the ranking isn't working.

ScoreW-LCover rate
0.0 to 1.582-9048%

The line archive

Every book's price, saved on every run. 823101 prices banked. Books that move most are usually the ones reacting to money rather than setting the number.

A number moves 1.16 points on average between when we first see it and kickoff. That's the size of the prize for getting a good number early, and the size of the risk in taking one too early.

BookGamesAvg points moved
Kalshi1151.78
DraftKings2481.43
FanDuel2941.35
LowVig.ag2251.34
BetOnline.ag2321.33
BetRivers2631.25
BetMGM2021.24
Bovada1991.21
Caesars1971.15
Pinnacle1981.14
BetUS1561.14
MyBookie.ag1591.12
TOM2391.00
Courtside260.96
Fanatics2360.96
ReBet750.65
betPARX430.60
Bally Bet430.60
Hard Rock Bet540.51
theScore Bet390.45
Fliff340.18

How current the ratings are

None of these publishes an update time, so this is measured rather than reported: how long since the numbers themselves last moved. Early in the season they're mostly preseason projections whatever the date says.

  • FPI updated today
  • FPI NFL updated today
  • Massey college updated today
  • Massey nfl updated 2 days ago
  • SP+ updated 6 days ago
  • Sagarin updated today
  • Sagarin NFL updated 5 days ago
  • nfelo updated 4 days ago
Log the bets you took

Bet something we didn't pick? Add it here
Saved
Built 5:14 PM · Terms · For entertainment and information only. 21+. Know your state's rules.. Every game gets a moneyline, spread and total worked out and priced against what it costs. Kalshi prices on the board include Kalshi's fee, so they compare straight to a sportsbook's; the cents in brackets are what you enter on Kalshi. Odds API calls left this month: 6443.